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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191104
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191104
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect IFR ceilings to spread west to KHOB and KINK, and stay over
these terminals, along with KMAF, until 19/16z or a little beyond.
MVFR visibility in fog will also affect these terminals during
this time, with KHOB and KPEQ possibly seeing IFR visibility in
fog.  KCNM and KFST are expected to be VFR, with the rest of the
terminals VFR this afternoon and tonight.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland









000
FXUS64 KMAF 191011
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, fairly light winds with low dewpoint depressions across a
large portion of the CWA are allowing for a chance of fog to develop
across parts of the Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico, and the
Guadalupe Mountains.  Have added patchy fog into the grids for this
morning. An upper level trough is over the region bringing a weak
cold front into the area and resulting in cooler 850 mb
temperatures.  Upper lift has increased over the area and a few
showers have developed as a result.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures today will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  Less precipitation has developed than was previously expected
and expect conditions to be dry by this afternoon as most of the
showers are out of the area now.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead which will warm temperatures up even further.
On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine with an
upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one big
amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s and 70s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with
this big upper trough will move into the area Monday evening.  This
will bring temperatures back down to near normal values for
Tuesday.  Winds will shift back towards the south and southwest on
Wednesday allowing temperatures to warm slightly.  Another upper
trough will dig southeastward over the western conus on Thursday.  A
surface trough will strengthen across the area as a result of this
and temperatures will warm back into the 60s and lower 70s on
Thursday.  This upper trough will move over the central conus next
Friday.  Don`t expect much precipitation from this system but will
continue to monitor as newer model data becomes available.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 54  37  57  36  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              51  39  57  39  /  20  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  30  58  32  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  44  59  42  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  39  61  39  /  10   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  33  52  35  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  31  56  32  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   56  27  58  26  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  39  57  37  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  53  39  57  37  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    59  34  61  34  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland










000
FXUS64 KMAF 190454
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1054 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front currently entering the northern Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico Plains and is forecast to push southwest
toward the Pecos River by 12z Friday. A period of MVFR ceilings
and or visibility is expected at KMAF, KINK, KHOB near and behind
this front toward 12z Friday. KMAF is expected to clear last and
could take by early Friday afternoon to improve to VFR. Across
KCNM, KPEQ, and KFST VFR conditions are expected the next 24
hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Cold front across the Texas Panhandle will move southwest tonight
and is forecast to be near the Pecos River by 12z Friday morning.
With passage of front at KMAF, KINK, expect IFR conditions to
develop after 08z tonight and continue Friday morning. At KCNM and
KHOB, expecting TEMPO VFR to MVFR conditions in showers overnight
with prevailing MVFR conditions continuing at KHOB Friday morning.
At KPEQ and KFST, most of tonight will be VFR with TEMPO MVFR to
IFR visibtilites expected to develop by 12z TO 16Z in fog.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 190454
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1054 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front currently entering the northern Permian Basin and
southeast New Mexico Plains and is forecast to push southwest
toward the Pecos River by 12z Friday. A period of MVFR ceilings
and or visibility is expected at KMAF, KINK, KHOB near and behind
this front toward 12z Friday. KMAF is expected to clear last and
could take by early Friday afternoon to improve to VFR. Across
KCNM, KPEQ, and KFST VFR conditions are expected the next 24
hours.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
Cold front across the Texas Panhandle will move southwest tonight
and is forecast to be near the Pecos River by 12z Friday morning.
With passage of front at KMAF, KINK, expect IFR conditions to
develop after 08z tonight and continue Friday morning. At KCNM and
KHOB, expecting TEMPO VFR to MVFR conditions in showers overnight
with prevailing MVFR conditions continuing at KHOB Friday morning.
At KPEQ and KFST, most of tonight will be VFR with TEMPO MVFR to
IFR visibtilites expected to develop by 12z TO 16Z in fog.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 182322
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
522 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front across the Texas Panhandle will move southwest tonight
and is forecast to be near the Pecos River by 12z Friday morning.
With passage of front at KMAF, KINK, expect IFR conditions to
develop after 08z tonight and continue Friday morning. At KCNM and
KHOB, expecting TEMPO VFR to MVFR conditions in showers overnight
with prevailing MVFR conditions continuing at KHOB Friday morning.
At KPEQ and KFST, most of tonight will be VFR with TEMPO MVFR to
IFR visibtilites expected to develop by 12z TO 16Z in fog.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 182322
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
522 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front across the Texas Panhandle will move southwest tonight
and is forecast to be near the Pecos River by 12z Friday morning.
With passage of front at KMAF, KINK, expect IFR conditions to
develop after 08z tonight and continue Friday morning. At KCNM and
KHOB, expecting TEMPO VFR to MVFR conditions in showers overnight
with prevailing MVFR conditions continuing at KHOB Friday morning.
At KPEQ and KFST, most of tonight will be VFR with TEMPO MVFR to
IFR visibtilites expected to develop by 12z TO 16Z in fog.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 182056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 182056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
256 PM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Per recent water vapor imagery, a shortwave/upper trough is
currently moving eastward across southern Arizona, and will dominate
sensible weather in our area over the next 24 hours. Modest 500mb
height falls will overspread the region this evening and tonight
ahead of the approaching trough, and given decent low and mid-level
moisture in place, as well as a cold front which will edge into the
area from the northeast by around 06Z, there will be adequate lift
and upper level support for precipitation overnight. Models continue
to indicate light QPF across the majority of the forecast area, with
the exception of the Presidio Valley along the Rio Grande. Expect
precipitation to gradually overspread the area from west to east
tonight, with the best window for widespread rainfall between 06Z
and 12Z. Mid-level lapse rates will increase overnight, and model
soundings indicate the presence of some elevated instability, mainly
over the Lower Trans Pecos. Thus, have maintained the chance for
thunderstorms in that area, as a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled
out overnight tonight and early Friday. No severe weather is
currently anticipated. At the other end of the spectrum, there is a
chance for a rain/snow/sleet mix, mainly in the higher elevations
within the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, where vertical temperature
profiles look to be conducive to intermittent frozen precipitation.
Given warm ground temperatures, no accumulation is expected, and
thus, impacts should be minimal. As the shortwave exits the area on
Friday, precipitation will taper off from west to east, with the
chance of showers Friday confined mainly to the far eastern Permian
Basin and Western Low Rolling Plains.  Highs Friday will be roughly
5-10 degrees cooler for much of the area aside from the Rio Grande
Valley, dipping slightly below normal for this time of year.

Temperatures Saturday will moderate toward normal as ahead of the
next approaching upper level trough, which will move through the
region on Sunday.  Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of this
system, it will pass with little fanfare aside from serving to shift
winds to the west, which will allow temperatures to once again climb
above normal, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s Sunday, and mid
60s to low 70s on Monday. Rather innocuous northwest flow aloft will
set in over the area in the wake of Sunday`s trough, which will be
further  reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes Region and
subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern CONUS. A weak cold
front will move through the region on Tuesday, which will serve to
cool temperatures to near normal, though temperatures will climb
back into the 60s for Wednesday and Thursday.  Otherwise, a quiet
pattern will ensue, with no precipitation currently expected through
the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 38  52  32  57  /  40  20   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              40  51  35  57  /  40  30   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  54  30  58  /  40  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  48  64  41  61  /  40  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  57  36  62  /  40  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          34  50  33  52  /  40  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   37  52  29  57  /  40  20   0   0
MARFA TX                   30  58  23  60  /  30  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  54  33  58  /  40  20   0   0
ODESSA TX                  36  53  34  57  /  40  20   0   0
WINK TX                    40  59  32  61  /  30  20   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 181718
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1118 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR the first 12 hours of the TAF period, then IFR/LIFR conditions
north of the area will move in behind a cold front due to arrive
06-12Z. There is the potential for dense fog to develop but an
upper trough will bring scattered showers that could keep the
lower levels mixed enough to prevent this from occurring;
therefore, stayed on the higher end of LIFR conditions for now. No
significant improvement is expected before the end of the TAF.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, light winds with low dewpoint depressions across the
Western Low Rolling Plains, far eastern Permian Basin, and Lower
Trans Pecos are allowing for a chance of fog to develop in these
areas.  An upper level trough is approaching the region from the
west resulting in cooler 850 mb temperatures which will allow for
slightly cooler high temperatures today.  As this upper trough moves
over the region tonight, upper lift will increase over the area.  A
cold front will push into the area from the northeast around the
same time the upper trough moves overhead.  Precipitation is
expected to develop across the CWA Thursday night into Friday as a
result of the increase in lift.  Lapse rates will be good across the
Lower Trans Pecos so have added mention of thunder across this
area.  There is a slight chance of a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday night.  Elsewhere, expect the
precipitation to mainly be in the form of rain as forecast soundings
are not conducive to snow outside of mountainous areas due to
temperatures being too warm.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures on Friday will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  The precipitation will shift towards the east during the day
Friday with dry conditions expected by Friday night.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead otherwise not much change is expected from
Saturday.  On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine
with an upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one
big amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with this big
upper trough will move into the area Tuesday morning.  Winds will
shift back towards the south on Wednesday allowing temperatures to
warm slightly.  Another upper trough will dig southeastward over the
western conus on Thursday.  A surface trough will strengthen across
the area as a result of this and temperatures will warm back into
the 60s and lower 70s on Thursday.  This upper trough will move over
the central conus next Friday.  Kept the extended forecast dry for
now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 181110
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
510 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals throughout the day and this evening.  A cold front
will move into the area, with MVFR ceilings/visibility in fog and
rain possible behind it.  Since these lower conditions are not
expected until 19/09Z and after, will not make a mention in this
issuance.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, light winds with low dewpoint depressions across the
Western Low Rolling Plains, far eastern Permian Basin, and Lower
Trans Pecos are allowing for a chance of fog to develop in these
areas.  An upper level trough is approaching the region from the
west resulting in cooler 850 mb temperatures which will allow for
slightly cooler high temperatures today.  As this upper trough moves
over the region tonight, upper lift will increase over the area.  A
cold front will push into the area from the northeast around the
same time the upper trough moves overhead.  Precipitation is
expected to develop across the CWA Thursday night into Friday as a
result of the increase in lift.  Lapse rates will be good across the
Lower Trans Pecos so have added mention of thunder across this
area.  There is a slight chance of a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday night.  Elsewhere, expect the
precipitation to mainly be in the form of rain as forecast soundings
are not conducive to snow outside of mountainous areas due to
temperatures being too warm.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures on Friday will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  The precipitation will shift towards the east during the day
Friday with dry conditions expected by Friday night.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead otherwise not much change is expected from
Saturday.  On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine
with an upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one
big amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with this big
upper trough will move into the area Tuesday morning.  Winds will
shift back towards the south on Wednesday allowing temperatures to
warm slightly.  Another upper trough will dig southeastward over the
western conus on Thursday.  A surface trough will strengthen across
the area as a result of this and temperatures will warm back into
the 60s and lower 70s on Thursday.  This upper trough will move over
the central conus next Friday.  Kept the extended forecast dry for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  38  50  33  /   0  40  20   0
BIG SPRING TX              63  38  49  33  /   0  40  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                61  39  57  32  /  10  40  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  47  60  39  /   0  40  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  40  56  35  /   0  40  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  34  52  33  /  10  30  10   0
HOBBS NM                   58  36  52  31  /  10  40  20   0
MARFA TX                   60  31  55  24  /   0  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  38  52  33  /   0  40  20   0
ODESSA TX                  64  38  53  33  /   0  40  20   0
WINK TX                    65  40  57  32  /   0  30  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 181110
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
510 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and west
Texas terminals throughout the day and this evening.  A cold front
will move into the area, with MVFR ceilings/visibility in fog and
rain possible behind it.  Since these lower conditions are not
expected until 19/09Z and after, will not make a mention in this
issuance.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Currently, light winds with low dewpoint depressions across the
Western Low Rolling Plains, far eastern Permian Basin, and Lower
Trans Pecos are allowing for a chance of fog to develop in these
areas.  An upper level trough is approaching the region from the
west resulting in cooler 850 mb temperatures which will allow for
slightly cooler high temperatures today.  As this upper trough moves
over the region tonight, upper lift will increase over the area.  A
cold front will push into the area from the northeast around the
same time the upper trough moves overhead.  Precipitation is
expected to develop across the CWA Thursday night into Friday as a
result of the increase in lift.  Lapse rates will be good across the
Lower Trans Pecos so have added mention of thunder across this
area.  There is a slight chance of a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday night.  Elsewhere, expect the
precipitation to mainly be in the form of rain as forecast soundings
are not conducive to snow outside of mountainous areas due to
temperatures being too warm.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures on Friday will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  The precipitation will shift towards the east during the day
Friday with dry conditions expected by Friday night.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead otherwise not much change is expected from
Saturday.  On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine
with an upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one
big amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with this big
upper trough will move into the area Tuesday morning.  Winds will
shift back towards the south on Wednesday allowing temperatures to
warm slightly.  Another upper trough will dig southeastward over the
western conus on Thursday.  A surface trough will strengthen across
the area as a result of this and temperatures will warm back into
the 60s and lower 70s on Thursday.  This upper trough will move over
the central conus next Friday.  Kept the extended forecast dry for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  38  50  33  /   0  40  20   0
BIG SPRING TX              63  38  49  33  /   0  40  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                61  39  57  32  /  10  40  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  47  60  39  /   0  40  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  40  56  35  /   0  40  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  34  52  33  /  10  30  10   0
HOBBS NM                   58  36  52  31  /  10  40  20   0
MARFA TX                   60  31  55  24  /   0  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  38  52  33  /   0  40  20   0
ODESSA TX                  64  38  53  33  /   0  40  20   0
WINK TX                    65  40  57  32  /   0  30  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 181010
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, light winds with low dewpoint depressions across the
Western Low Rolling Plains, far eastern Permian Basin, and Lower
Trans Pecos are allowing for a chance of fog to develop in these
areas.  An upper level trough is approaching the region from the
west resulting in cooler 850 mb temperatures which will allow for
slightly cooler high temperatures today.  As this upper trough moves
over the region tonight, upper lift will increase over the area.  A
cold front will push into the area from the northeast around the
same time the upper trough moves overhead.  Precipitation is
expected to develop across the CWA Thursday night into Friday as a
result of the increase in lift.  Lapse rates will be good across the
Lower Trans Pecos so have added mention of thunder across this
area.  There is a slight chance of a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday night.  Elsewhere, expect the
precipitation to mainly be in the form of rain as forecast soundings
are not conducive to snow outside of mountainous areas due to
temperatures being too warm.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures on Friday will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  The precipitation will shift towards the east during the day
Friday with dry conditions expected by Friday night.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead otherwise not much change is expected from
Saturday.  On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine
with an upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one
big amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with this big
upper trough will move into the area Tuesday morning.  Winds will
shift back towards the south on Wednesday allowing temperatures to
warm slightly.  Another upper trough will dig southeastward over the
western conus on Thursday.  A surface trough will strengthen across
the area as a result of this and temperatures will warm back into
the 60s and lower 70s on Thursday.  This upper trough will move over
the central conus next Friday.  Kept the extended forecast dry for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  38  50  33  /   0  40  20   0
BIG SPRING TX              63  38  49  33  /   0  40  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                61  39  57  32  /  10  40  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  47  60  39  /   0  40  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  40  56  35  /   0  40  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  34  52  33  /  10  30  10   0
HOBBS NM                   58  36  52  31  /  10  40  20   0
MARFA TX                   60  31  55  24  /   0  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  38  52  33  /   0  40  20   0
ODESSA TX                  64  38  53  33  /   0  40  20   0
WINK TX                    65  40  57  32  /   0  30  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 181010
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Currently, light winds with low dewpoint depressions across the
Western Low Rolling Plains, far eastern Permian Basin, and Lower
Trans Pecos are allowing for a chance of fog to develop in these
areas.  An upper level trough is approaching the region from the
west resulting in cooler 850 mb temperatures which will allow for
slightly cooler high temperatures today.  As this upper trough moves
over the region tonight, upper lift will increase over the area.  A
cold front will push into the area from the northeast around the
same time the upper trough moves overhead.  Precipitation is
expected to develop across the CWA Thursday night into Friday as a
result of the increase in lift.  Lapse rates will be good across the
Lower Trans Pecos so have added mention of thunder across this
area.  There is a slight chance of a rain/snow/sleet mix in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains Thursday night.  Elsewhere, expect the
precipitation to mainly be in the form of rain as forecast soundings
are not conducive to snow outside of mountainous areas due to
temperatures being too warm.  As a result of the colder air,
temperatures on Friday will be quite a bit cooler than the previous
day.  The precipitation will shift towards the east during the day
Friday with dry conditions expected by Friday night.

Another shortwave/upper trough will approach the area on Saturday,
but no precipitation is expected with this next system.
Temperatures will warm up slightly on Saturday as winds shift toward
the south.  Winds will shift towards the west on Sunday as the upper
trough moves overhead otherwise not much change is expected from
Saturday.  On Monday, the upper trough over the region will combine
with an upper trough moving over the Northern Plains to create one
big amplified upper trough.  A surface trough will develop over the
region as a result and cause downslope compressional warming as
winds strengthen out of the west.  Temperatures will warm up into
the 60s areawide on Monday.  A cold front associated with this big
upper trough will move into the area Tuesday morning.  Winds will
shift back towards the south on Wednesday allowing temperatures to
warm slightly.  Another upper trough will dig southeastward over the
western conus on Thursday.  A surface trough will strengthen across
the area as a result of this and temperatures will warm back into
the 60s and lower 70s on Thursday.  This upper trough will move over
the central conus next Friday.  Kept the extended forecast dry for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  38  50  33  /   0  40  20   0
BIG SPRING TX              63  38  49  33  /   0  40  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                61  39  57  32  /  10  40  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  66  47  60  39  /   0  40  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           64  40  56  35  /   0  40  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          54  34  52  33  /  10  30  10   0
HOBBS NM                   58  36  52  31  /  10  40  20   0
MARFA TX                   60  31  55  24  /   0  30  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  38  52  33  /   0  40  20   0
ODESSA TX                  64  38  53  33  /   0  40  20   0
WINK TX                    65  40  57  32  /   0  30  20   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 180503
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1103 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR tonight through Thursday.  Low clouds east of the area this
morning should stay east of all TAF sites Thursday morning.
Generally light wind tonight should veer around to the NW during
the day and finally east tomorrow night as backdoor front moves in
toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS64 KMAF 180503
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1103 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR tonight through Thursday.  Low clouds east of the area this
morning should stay east of all TAF sites Thursday morning.
Generally light wind tonight should veer around to the NW during
the day and finally east tomorrow night as backdoor front moves in
toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS64 KMAF 172337
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Gusty westerly winds will prevail at area terminals with the
exception of FST at the start of the TAF period. Gusts should
quickly die down after sunset as the boundary layer decouples and
should remain westerly overnight, with veering to a more northerly
component throughout the day Thursday. VFR conditions should prevail
with a mid-level ceiling becoming established tomorrow morning.
Forecast models hint at the possibility of a small window of IFR
ceilings at MAF and INK tomorrow around sunrise but confidence is
low and have decided to omit from this TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

As a weak shortwave trough exits to the east, above normal
temperatures will continue across the area through Thursday thanks
to west-southwest flow ahead of the next approaching shortwave to
the west.  Overnight lows tonight will be in the 30s to mid 40s
across the area, and highs Thursday will climb into the upper 50s to
middle 60s, generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most
locations.  Mid-level moisture will continue to increase across the
area ahead of the next shortwave, which will move through the region
on Thursday night and early Friday.  This shortwave will be stronger
than the previous, and models continue to indicate light QPF across
the entire CWFA with the exception of the Presidio Valley along the
Rio Grande. Thus, have maintained the slight chance/chance of
showers for Thursday night, with a rain/snow mix possible for higher
elevations in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  However, given
warm ground temperatures, any snow that manages to fall in these
locations is not expected to accumulate, and thus, impacts should be
minimal. As the shortwave exits the area, precipitation will taper
off from west to east, with the chance of showers on Friday confined
mainly to the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling
Plains.

Temperatures on Friday and through the weekend will drop to slightly
below normal as weak ridging develops ahead of yet another upper
level trough that will move through the area on Sunday. However,
there will be little moisture for this system to work with, thus
have maintained a dry forecast through the weekend. In the wake of
Sunday`s trough, northwest flow aloft will set in over the
region, which will be reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great
Lakes Region and subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern
CONUS. With the persistent northwest flow continuing into next
week and the main slug of mid-level moisture remaining well north
of the area, quiet weather is expected for the latter part of the
extended, with dry conditions and near to slightly above normal
temperatures.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

83

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 172050
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

As a weak shortwave trough exits to the east, above normal
temperatures will continue across the area through Thursday thanks
to west-southwest flow ahead of the next approaching shortwave to
the west.  Overnight lows tonight will be in the 30s to mid 40s
across the area, and highs Thursday will climb into the upper 50s to
middle 60s, generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most
locations.  Mid-level moisture will continue to increase across the
area ahead of the next shortwave, which will move through the region
on Thursday night and early Friday.  This shortwave will be stronger
than the previous, and models continue to indicate light QPF across
the entire CWFA with the exception of the Presidio Valley along the
Rio Grande. Thus, have maintained the slight chance/chance of
showers for Thursday night, with a rain/snow mix possible for higher
elevations in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  However, given
warm ground temperatures, any snow that manages to fall in these
locations is not expected to accumulate, and thus, impacts should be
minimal. As the shortwave exits the area, precipitation will taper
off from west to east, with the chance of showers on Friday confined
mainly to the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling
Plains.

Temperatures on Friday and through the weekend will drop to slightly
below normal as weak ridging develops ahead of yet another upper
level trough that will move through the area on Sunday. However,
there will be little moisture for this system to work with, thus
have maintained a dry forecast through the weekend. In the wake of
Sunday`s trough, northwest flow aloft will set in over the
region, which will be reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great
Lakes Region and subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern
CONUS. With the persistent northwest flow continuing into next
week and the main slug of mid-level moisture remaining well north
of the area, quiet weather is expected for the latter part of the
extended, with dry conditions and near to slightly above normal
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 40  61  38  52  /   0   0  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              43  65  41  53  /  10   0  40  30
CARLSBAD NM                40  60  36  57  /   0  10  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  45  67  48  62  /   0   0  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           43  62  40  57  /   0   0  40  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          37  54  34  52  /   0  10  30  10
HOBBS NM                   37  58  34  53  /   0  10  30  10
MARFA TX                   31  61  30  55  /   0   0  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    39  64  39  52  /  10   0  40  20
ODESSA TX                  40  63  39  53  /  10   0  40  20
WINK TX                    38  63  38  57  /   0   0  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 172050
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

As a weak shortwave trough exits to the east, above normal
temperatures will continue across the area through Thursday thanks
to west-southwest flow ahead of the next approaching shortwave to
the west.  Overnight lows tonight will be in the 30s to mid 40s
across the area, and highs Thursday will climb into the upper 50s to
middle 60s, generally 5 to 10 degrees above normal for most
locations.  Mid-level moisture will continue to increase across the
area ahead of the next shortwave, which will move through the region
on Thursday night and early Friday.  This shortwave will be stronger
than the previous, and models continue to indicate light QPF across
the entire CWFA with the exception of the Presidio Valley along the
Rio Grande. Thus, have maintained the slight chance/chance of
showers for Thursday night, with a rain/snow mix possible for higher
elevations in the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  However, given
warm ground temperatures, any snow that manages to fall in these
locations is not expected to accumulate, and thus, impacts should be
minimal. As the shortwave exits the area, precipitation will taper
off from west to east, with the chance of showers on Friday confined
mainly to the far eastern Permian Basin and Western Low Rolling
Plains.

Temperatures on Friday and through the weekend will drop to slightly
below normal as weak ridging develops ahead of yet another upper
level trough that will move through the area on Sunday. However,
there will be little moisture for this system to work with, thus
have maintained a dry forecast through the weekend. In the wake of
Sunday`s trough, northwest flow aloft will set in over the
region, which will be reinforced by cyclogenesis over the Great
Lakes Region and subsequent deepening of a trough over the eastern
CONUS. With the persistent northwest flow continuing into next
week and the main slug of mid-level moisture remaining well north
of the area, quiet weather is expected for the latter part of the
extended, with dry conditions and near to slightly above normal
temperatures.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 40  61  38  52  /   0   0  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              43  65  41  53  /  10   0  40  30
CARLSBAD NM                40  60  36  57  /   0  10  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  45  67  48  62  /   0   0  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           43  62  40  57  /   0   0  40  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          37  54  34  52  /   0  10  30  10
HOBBS NM                   37  58  34  53  /   0  10  30  10
MARFA TX                   31  61  30  55  /   0   0  30  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    39  64  39  52  /  10   0  40  20
ODESSA TX                  40  63  39  53  /  10   0  40  20
WINK TX                    38  63  38  57  /   0   0  30  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171615
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1015 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc winds will veer to SW this afternoon, scouring out the lower
levels to VFR all terminals, and continue veering to W after
sunrise Thursday. Buffer soundings suggest LIFR stratus trying to
develop KHOB/KINK shortly after sunrise, but this will be brief.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough will traverse the region today, and result in a
slight chance of showers for all but the Presidio Valley and Big
Bend region.  Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture
through the column is lacking.  Temperatures will warm to slightly
above normal as westerly winds prevail in the wake of the
shortwave trough.  A little more substantial shortwave trough will
head for the region Thursday, which will promote high temperatures
rising to nearly 10 degrees above normal in most locations.  The
ua trough will be deep enough for a chance of showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, if not lingering into Friday morning
over eastern portions of the area.  Precipitation amounts will be
light again, but this could change if thunderstorms develop due to
a slightly more vigorous ua trough than models are currently
showing.  Will leave showers as the primary mode for now.  There
may also be a mix of rain and snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Since the ground will be warm and
precipitation amounts will be light, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Temperatures will be closer to normal Friday and through the weekend
as surface ridging will prevail over the region during this time.
Another ua trough will head for the region Sunday/Monday, but the
latest models continue to display an open wave which pushes eastward
over the area with little fanfare.  Will leave the extended dry and
keep temperatures near to above normal under innocuous northwest
flow aloft.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171615
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1015 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc winds will veer to SW this afternoon, scouring out the lower
levels to VFR all terminals, and continue veering to W after
sunrise Thursday. Buffer soundings suggest LIFR stratus trying to
develop KHOB/KINK shortly after sunrise, but this will be brief.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough will traverse the region today, and result in a
slight chance of showers for all but the Presidio Valley and Big
Bend region.  Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture
through the column is lacking.  Temperatures will warm to slightly
above normal as westerly winds prevail in the wake of the
shortwave trough.  A little more substantial shortwave trough will
head for the region Thursday, which will promote high temperatures
rising to nearly 10 degrees above normal in most locations.  The
ua trough will be deep enough for a chance of showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, if not lingering into Friday morning
over eastern portions of the area.  Precipitation amounts will be
light again, but this could change if thunderstorms develop due to
a slightly more vigorous ua trough than models are currently
showing.  Will leave showers as the primary mode for now.  There
may also be a mix of rain and snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Since the ground will be warm and
precipitation amounts will be light, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Temperatures will be closer to normal Friday and through the weekend
as surface ridging will prevail over the region during this time.
Another ua trough will head for the region Sunday/Monday, but the
latest models continue to display an open wave which pushes eastward
over the area with little fanfare.  Will leave the extended dry and
keep temperatures near to above normal under innocuous northwest
flow aloft.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
501 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings are expected to continue for MAF through the morning
hours and ceilings in HOB should lift earlier.  Winds will shift to
the southwest today and become elevated and gusty this afternoon.
There is a slight chance of low ceilings redeveloping just before
12z Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough will traverse the region today, and result in a
slight chance of showers for all but the Presidio Valley and Big
Bend region.  Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture
through the column is lacking.  Temperatures will warm to slightly
above normal as westerly winds prevail in the wake of the
shortwave trough.  A little more substantial shortwave trough will
head for the region Thursday, which will promote high temperatures
rising to nearly 10 degrees above normal in most locations.  The
ua trough will be deep enough for a chance of showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, if not lingering into Friday morning
over eastern portions of the area.  Precipitation amounts will be
light again, but this could change if thunderstorms develop due to
a slightly more vigorous ua trough than models are currently
showing.  Will leave showers as the primary mode for now.  There
may also be a mix of rain and snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Since the ground will be warm and
precipitation amounts will be light, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Temperatures will be closer to normal Friday and through the weekend
as surface ridging will prevail over the region during this time.
Another ua trough will head for the region Sunday/Monday, but the
latest models continue to display an open wave which pushes eastward
over the area with little fanfare.  Will leave the extended dry and
keep temperatures near to above normal under innocuous northwest
flow aloft.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
501 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings are expected to continue for MAF through the morning
hours and ceilings in HOB should lift earlier.  Winds will shift to
the southwest today and become elevated and gusty this afternoon.
There is a slight chance of low ceilings redeveloping just before
12z Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough will traverse the region today, and result in a
slight chance of showers for all but the Presidio Valley and Big
Bend region.  Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture
through the column is lacking.  Temperatures will warm to slightly
above normal as westerly winds prevail in the wake of the
shortwave trough.  A little more substantial shortwave trough will
head for the region Thursday, which will promote high temperatures
rising to nearly 10 degrees above normal in most locations.  The
ua trough will be deep enough for a chance of showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, if not lingering into Friday morning
over eastern portions of the area.  Precipitation amounts will be
light again, but this could change if thunderstorms develop due to
a slightly more vigorous ua trough than models are currently
showing.  Will leave showers as the primary mode for now.  There
may also be a mix of rain and snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Since the ground will be warm and
precipitation amounts will be light, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Temperatures will be closer to normal Friday and through the weekend
as surface ridging will prevail over the region during this time.
Another ua trough will head for the region Sunday/Monday, but the
latest models continue to display an open wave which pushes eastward
over the area with little fanfare.  Will leave the extended dry and
keep temperatures near to above normal under innocuous northwest
flow aloft.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170925
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
325 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A shortwave trough will traverse the region today, and result in a
slight chance of showers for all but the Presidio Valley and Big
Bend region.  Precipitation amounts will be light as moisture
through the column is lacking.  Temperatures will warm to slightly
above normal as westerly winds prevail in the wake of the
shortwave trough.  A little more substantial shortwave trough will
head for the region Thursday, which will promote high temperatures
rising to nearly 10 degrees above normal in most locations.  The
ua trough will be deep enough for a chance of showers across the
forecast area Thursday night, if not lingering into Friday morning
over eastern portions of the area.  Precipitation amounts will be
light again, but this could change if thunderstorms develop due to
a slightly more vigorous ua trough than models are currently
showing.  Will leave showers as the primary mode for now.  There
may also be a mix of rain and snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Since the ground will be warm and
precipitation amounts will be light, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Temperatures will be closer to normal Friday and through the weekend
as surface ridging will prevail over the region during this time.
Another ua trough will head for the region Sunday/Monday, but the
latest models continue to display an open wave which pushes eastward
over the area with little fanfare.  Will leave the extended dry and
keep temperatures near to above normal under innocuous northwest
flow aloft.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 61  40  61  37  /  20   0   0  30
BIG SPRING TX              61  43  66  41  /  20  10   0  40
CARLSBAD NM                63  41  59  36  /  20   0  10  30
DRYDEN TX                  64  46  67  49  /  10   0   0  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           67  43  62  40  /  10   0   0  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  37  54  33  /  20   0  10  30
HOBBS NM                   58  36  58  33  /  20   0  10  30
MARFA TX                   63  30  61  31  /  10   0   0  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  41  64  40  /  20  10   0  40
ODESSA TX                  63  41  63  38  /  20  10   0  40
WINK TX                    66  38  63  38  /  10   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

80/67

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1122 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Considerable mid and high clouds will continue to move across the
area from the west the rest of the night and through sunrise
tomorrow.  Low clouds will move in from the SE overnight and should
spread across all of the region by 12z... MVFR cigs expected.  SE
wind should veer around to the S/SW tomorrow as new leeside trough
develops.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Sensible weather across the area over the next several days will
be governed by a series of weak shortwaves progged to move through
the region. Increasing clouds overnight will be followed by a
return to southwest flow aloft on Wednesday, allowing
temperatures to edge up to slightly above normal for Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The first of the
aforementioned series of shortwaves will eject out through the
Desert Southwest and progress northeastward, skirting northern
portions of the CWFA on Wednesday night. This feature is expected
to pass by quickly and with little fanfare due to a lack of
sufficient moisture across the area. Have gone ahead and left in
the slight chance of showers for the far eastern portions of the
area where moisture profiles will be slightly more conducive to
rainfall.

The second, higher amplitude wave will move through the region on
Thursday night and Friday, and will be accompanied by weak 500mb
height falls.  This wave will move more slowly than the first, and
given continued southwest flow on Wednesday night and Thursday ahead
of this feature, there will be quite a bit more moisture to work
with. The best chance for precipitation across the area will be
Thursday night, with all but the Presidio Valley having a slight
chance to chance of showers overnight.  Higher elevations in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains could even see a mix of rain and snow
late Thursday night, though warm ground temperatures will prevent
any accumulation.  As the shortwave moves east on Friday,
precipitation will end from west to east, though model soundings
indicate small amounts of elevated instability over the southeast
New Mexico Plains and Trans Pecos, which could be enough for an
isolated thunderstorm or two in those areas as the system pulls
away. Friday will also be a few degrees cooler due to a weak cold
front, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide, except for the Rio
Grande Valley where low to middle 60s are possible.

Temperatures will slowly moderate back toward normal by the end of
next weekend, ahead of the next trough that will move through the
region.  Models are in fairly good agreement regarding the
advancement of a positively tilted trough through the area Sunday
night and Monday, though the GFS is the only model that generates
any precipitation ahead of this feature. Thus, have kept the end of
the extended dry for now pending additional guidance regarding the
eventual evolution of this feature.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1122 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Considerable mid and high clouds will continue to move across the
area from the west the rest of the night and through sunrise
tomorrow.  Low clouds will move in from the SE overnight and should
spread across all of the region by 12z... MVFR cigs expected.  SE
wind should veer around to the S/SW tomorrow as new leeside trough
develops.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Sensible weather across the area over the next several days will
be governed by a series of weak shortwaves progged to move through
the region. Increasing clouds overnight will be followed by a
return to southwest flow aloft on Wednesday, allowing
temperatures to edge up to slightly above normal for Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The first of the
aforementioned series of shortwaves will eject out through the
Desert Southwest and progress northeastward, skirting northern
portions of the CWFA on Wednesday night. This feature is expected
to pass by quickly and with little fanfare due to a lack of
sufficient moisture across the area. Have gone ahead and left in
the slight chance of showers for the far eastern portions of the
area where moisture profiles will be slightly more conducive to
rainfall.

The second, higher amplitude wave will move through the region on
Thursday night and Friday, and will be accompanied by weak 500mb
height falls.  This wave will move more slowly than the first, and
given continued southwest flow on Wednesday night and Thursday ahead
of this feature, there will be quite a bit more moisture to work
with. The best chance for precipitation across the area will be
Thursday night, with all but the Presidio Valley having a slight
chance to chance of showers overnight.  Higher elevations in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains could even see a mix of rain and snow
late Thursday night, though warm ground temperatures will prevent
any accumulation.  As the shortwave moves east on Friday,
precipitation will end from west to east, though model soundings
indicate small amounts of elevated instability over the southeast
New Mexico Plains and Trans Pecos, which could be enough for an
isolated thunderstorm or two in those areas as the system pulls
away. Friday will also be a few degrees cooler due to a weak cold
front, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide, except for the Rio
Grande Valley where low to middle 60s are possible.

Temperatures will slowly moderate back toward normal by the end of
next weekend, ahead of the next trough that will move through the
region.  Models are in fairly good agreement regarding the
advancement of a positively tilted trough through the area Sunday
night and Monday, though the GFS is the only model that generates
any precipitation ahead of this feature. Thus, have kept the end of
the extended dry for now pending additional guidance regarding the
eventual evolution of this feature.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170006
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...


&&

.AVIATION...
Moisture return from generally ESE flow at the surface and
associated isentropic ascent will result in MVFR ceilings tonight
at areal terminals. Surface winds will continue veering from
easterly tonight to predominately westerly tomorrow afternoon as a
surface ridge move out of the area. Westerly flow is expected to
result in clearing to VFR conditions by late morning except at
INK, MAF, & FST where marginal MVFR ceilings may persist through
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Sensible weather across the area over the next several days will
be governed by a series of weak shortwaves progged to move through
the region. Increasing clouds overnight will be followed by a
return to southwest flow aloft on Wednesday, allowing
temperatures to edge up to slightly above normal for Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The first of the
aforementioned series of shortwaves will eject out through the
Desert Southwest and progress northeastward, skirting northern
portions of the CWFA on Wednesday night. This feature is expected
to pass by quickly and with little fanfare due to a lack of
sufficient moisture across the area. Have gone ahead and left in
the slight chance of showers for the far eastern portions of the
area where moisture profiles will be slightly more conducive to
rainfall.

The second, higher amplitude wave will move through the region on
Thursday night and Friday, and will be accompanied by weak 500mb
height falls.  This wave will move more slowly than the first, and
given continued southwest flow on Wednesday night and Thursday ahead
of this feature, there will be quite a bit more moisture to work
with. The best chance for precipitation across the area will be
Thursday night, with all but the Presidio Valley having a slight
chance to chance of showers overnight.  Higher elevations in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains could even see a mix of rain and snow
late Thursday night, though warm ground temperatures will prevent
any accumulation.  As the shortwave moves east on Friday,
precipitation will end from west to east, though model soundings
indicate small amounts of elevated instability over the southeast
New Mexico Plains and Trans Pecos, which could be enough for an
isolated thunderstorm or two in those areas as the system pulls
away. Friday will also be a few degrees cooler due to a weak cold
front, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide, except for the Rio
Grande Valley where low to middle 60s are possible.

Temperatures will slowly moderate back toward normal by the end of
next weekend, ahead of the next trough that will move through the
region.  Models are in fairly good agreement regarding the
advancement of a positively tilted trough through the area Sunday
night and Monday, though the GFS is the only model that generates
any precipitation ahead of this feature. Thus, have kept the end of
the extended dry for now pending additional guidance regarding the
eventual evolution of this feature.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

83

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 162110
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
310 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Sensible weather across the area over the next several days will
be governed by a series of weak shortwaves progged to move through
the region. Increasing clouds overnight will be followed by a
return to southwest flow aloft on Wednesday, allowing
temperatures to edge up to slightly above normal for Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The first of the
aforementioned series of shortwaves will eject out through the
Desert Southwest and progress northeastward, skirting northern
portions of the CWFA on Wednesday night. This feature is expected
to pass by quickly and with little fanfare due to a lack of
sufficient moisture across the area. Have gone ahead and left in
the slight chance of showers for the far eastern portions of the
area where moisture profiles will be slightly more conducive to
rainfall.

The second, higher amplitude wave will move through the region on
Thursday night and Friday, and will be accompanied by weak 500mb
height falls.  This wave will move more slowly than the first, and
given continued southwest flow on Wednesday night and Thursday ahead
of this feature, there will be quite a bit more moisture to work
with. The best chance for precipitation across the area will be
Thursday night, with all but the Presidio Valley having a slight
chance to chance of showers overnight.  Higher elevations in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains could even see a mix of rain and snow
late Thursday night, though warm ground temperatures will prevent
any accumulation.  As the shortwave moves east on Friday,
precipitation will end from west to east, though model soundings
indicate small amounts of elevated instability over the southeast
New Mexico Plains and Trans Pecos, which could be enough for an
isolated thunderstorm or two in those areas as the system pulls
away. Friday will also be a few degrees cooler due to a weak cold
front, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide, except for the Rio
Grande Valley where low to middle 60s are possible.

Temperatures will slowly moderate back toward normal by the end of
next weekend, ahead of the next trough that will move through the
region.  Models are in fairly good agreement regarding the
advancement of a positively tilted trough through the area Sunday
night and Monday, though the GFS is the only model that generates
any precipitation ahead of this feature. Thus, have kept the end of
the extended dry for now pending additional guidance regarding the
eventual evolution of this feature.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 41  60  38  60  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  59  40  62  /  10  20  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  65  40  61  /  10  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  46  61  43  64  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           42  67  41  65  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  57  38  54  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   35  61  36  59  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   33  62  33  59  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    41  62  37  63  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  42  61  39  62  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    41  65  37  63  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 162110
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
310 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Sensible weather across the area over the next several days will
be governed by a series of weak shortwaves progged to move through
the region. Increasing clouds overnight will be followed by a
return to southwest flow aloft on Wednesday, allowing
temperatures to edge up to slightly above normal for Wednesday and
Thursday, with highs expected to be in the upper 50s to lower 60s
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. The first of the
aforementioned series of shortwaves will eject out through the
Desert Southwest and progress northeastward, skirting northern
portions of the CWFA on Wednesday night. This feature is expected
to pass by quickly and with little fanfare due to a lack of
sufficient moisture across the area. Have gone ahead and left in
the slight chance of showers for the far eastern portions of the
area where moisture profiles will be slightly more conducive to
rainfall.

The second, higher amplitude wave will move through the region on
Thursday night and Friday, and will be accompanied by weak 500mb
height falls.  This wave will move more slowly than the first, and
given continued southwest flow on Wednesday night and Thursday ahead
of this feature, there will be quite a bit more moisture to work
with. The best chance for precipitation across the area will be
Thursday night, with all but the Presidio Valley having a slight
chance to chance of showers overnight.  Higher elevations in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains could even see a mix of rain and snow
late Thursday night, though warm ground temperatures will prevent
any accumulation.  As the shortwave moves east on Friday,
precipitation will end from west to east, though model soundings
indicate small amounts of elevated instability over the southeast
New Mexico Plains and Trans Pecos, which could be enough for an
isolated thunderstorm or two in those areas as the system pulls
away. Friday will also be a few degrees cooler due to a weak cold
front, with temperatures in the 50s area-wide, except for the Rio
Grande Valley where low to middle 60s are possible.

Temperatures will slowly moderate back toward normal by the end of
next weekend, ahead of the next trough that will move through the
region.  Models are in fairly good agreement regarding the
advancement of a positively tilted trough through the area Sunday
night and Monday, though the GFS is the only model that generates
any precipitation ahead of this feature. Thus, have kept the end of
the extended dry for now pending additional guidance regarding the
eventual evolution of this feature.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 41  60  38  60  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  59  40  62  /  10  20  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                37  65  40  61  /  10  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  46  61  43  64  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           42  67  41  65  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  57  38  54  /  10  10   0  10
HOBBS NM                   35  61  36  59  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   33  62  33  59  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    41  62  37  63  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  42  61  39  62  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    41  65  37  63  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 161622
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1022 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc flow will continue veering to the south over the next 24 hours
as the sfc ridge continues moving east. A weak warm front will
push into the area overnight on return flow, w/isentropic upglide
bringing MVFR stratus into the region beginning mid-evening.
Buffer soundings suggest cigs improving to VFR by the end of the
forecast period everywhere but KMAF, KFST, and KINK.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Slightly below normal temperatures will prevail today as a surface
ridge dominates the region, and high clouds begin to increase from
the west ahead of an oncoming ua trough.  A shortwave trough will
eject eastward over the region Wednesday before the upper trough
axis swings overhead Thursday night.  This will allow temperatures
to warm back above normal Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition,
there will be a slight chance of showers over the eastern Permian
Basin Wednesday, with a bit better chance Thursday night over most
of the forecast area.  There are some indications there will be very
modest elevated instability on both Wednesday and Thursday night for
thunderstorms to develop.  However, the upper trough does not look
overly impressive, and there will not be much moisture to work with,
so will carry showers for now.  There is not a lot of cold air
associated with the ua trough Thursday night, but some of the
precipitation could mix with snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Due to warm surface temperatures and
fairly light precipitation amounts, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Another cold front will ease into the area Friday and cool
temperatures back below normal.  Broad and weak upper troughing over
much of the ConUS through the weekend will also tend temperatures to
near or slightly below.  Another upper trough will dig through the
central Rockies this weekend, and over the forecast area Sunday
night/Monday.  This system is less amplified and faster than in
previous day`s model runs, so have backed off on PoPs Sunday and
Monday.  After coordinating with surrounding offices, will still
carry a slight chance of showers Sunday night and Monday, and wait
for better agreement to reinsert any higher chances.  Temperatures
will be near normal into early next week with the passage of this
trough.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 161622
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1022 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Sfc flow will continue veering to the south over the next 24 hours
as the sfc ridge continues moving east. A weak warm front will
push into the area overnight on return flow, w/isentropic upglide
bringing MVFR stratus into the region beginning mid-evening.
Buffer soundings suggest cigs improving to VFR by the end of the
forecast period everywhere but KMAF, KFST, and KINK.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Slightly below normal temperatures will prevail today as a surface
ridge dominates the region, and high clouds begin to increase from
the west ahead of an oncoming ua trough.  A shortwave trough will
eject eastward over the region Wednesday before the upper trough
axis swings overhead Thursday night.  This will allow temperatures
to warm back above normal Wednesday and Thursday.  In addition,
there will be a slight chance of showers over the eastern Permian
Basin Wednesday, with a bit better chance Thursday night over most
of the forecast area.  There are some indications there will be very
modest elevated instability on both Wednesday and Thursday night for
thunderstorms to develop.  However, the upper trough does not look
overly impressive, and there will not be much moisture to work with,
so will carry showers for now.  There is not a lot of cold air
associated with the ua trough Thursday night, but some of the
precipitation could mix with snow in the higher elevations of the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains.  Due to warm surface temperatures and
fairly light precipitation amounts, do not expect much, if any,
accumulation.

Another cold front will ease into the area Friday and cool
temperatures back below normal.  Broad and weak upper troughing over
much of the ConUS through the weekend will also tend temperatures to
near or slightly below.  Another upper trough will dig through the
central Rockies this weekend, and over the forecast area Sunday
night/Monday.  This system is less amplified and faster than in
previous day`s model runs, so have backed off on PoPs Sunday and
Monday.  After coordinating with surrounding offices, will still
carry a slight chance of showers Sunday night and Monday, and wait
for better agreement to reinsert any higher chances.  Temperatures
will be near normal into early next week with the passage of this
trough.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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