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000
FXUS64 KMAF 312336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with widespread mid and high clouds. Radar picking up on lots
of light precipitation but much of this evaporating in the dry
air. Have included mention of gusty wind with these showers/virga.
Could be some thunderstorms too but trend has not been that way.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area in southwest Mexico will move
east tonight toward the Big Bend and weaken as another trough
moves onshore on the west Coast. This trough will produce a slight
chance of thunderstorms overnight across mainly west Texas. Not
expecting much if any severe weather given the extensive cloud
shield with a weakening upper system approaching after peak
heating with weak dryline/convergence and marginal shear.

The upper level trough will quickly move east and be replaced by
zonal flow through the weekend. A surface lee low/trough will
reform in this flow with low level thermal ridging and downslope
flow producing much above normal temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday. In addition breezy to windy conditions will develop
across southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos and the
northern and central Permian Basin by Thursday afternoon as winds
increase through the column. High winds are not out of the
question in the Guadalupe Mountains and later shifts will need
to monitor for a high wind watch for Thursday in that area.

An upper level trough moving across the northern states is
forecast to drop a cold front through the region Friday
with temperatures dropping back to below normal by
Saturday.

West to southwest flow aloft will continue next Sunday through
next Tuesday with much above normal temperatures quickly
developing again. A dryline will develop and push east each day
from the eastern slopes of the mountains in the morning, to the
central or eastern Permian Basin by late afternoon. Late afternoon
and or early evening isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out
east of the dryline but confidence was not high enough at this
time to mention in the forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Dawson...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 312336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with widespread mid and high clouds. Radar picking up on lots
of light precipitation but much of this evaporating in the dry
air. Have included mention of gusty wind with these showers/virga.
Could be some thunderstorms too but trend has not been that way.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area in southwest Mexico will move
east tonight toward the Big Bend and weaken as another trough
moves onshore on the west Coast. This trough will produce a slight
chance of thunderstorms overnight across mainly west Texas. Not
expecting much if any severe weather given the extensive cloud
shield with a weakening upper system approaching after peak
heating with weak dryline/convergence and marginal shear.

The upper level trough will quickly move east and be replaced by
zonal flow through the weekend. A surface lee low/trough will
reform in this flow with low level thermal ridging and downslope
flow producing much above normal temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday. In addition breezy to windy conditions will develop
across southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos and the
northern and central Permian Basin by Thursday afternoon as winds
increase through the column. High winds are not out of the
question in the Guadalupe Mountains and later shifts will need
to monitor for a high wind watch for Thursday in that area.

An upper level trough moving across the northern states is
forecast to drop a cold front through the region Friday
with temperatures dropping back to below normal by
Saturday.

West to southwest flow aloft will continue next Sunday through
next Tuesday with much above normal temperatures quickly
developing again. A dryline will develop and push east each day
from the eastern slopes of the mountains in the morning, to the
central or eastern Permian Basin by late afternoon. Late afternoon
and or early evening isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out
east of the dryline but confidence was not high enough at this
time to mention in the forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Dawson...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 311938
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
238 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area in southwest Mexico will move
east tonight toward the Big Bend and weaken as another trough
moves onshore on the west Coast. This trough will produce a slight
chance of thunderstorms overnight across mainly west Texas. Not
expecting much if any severe weather given the extensive cloud
shield with a weakening upper system approaching after peak
heating with weak dryline/convergence and marginal shear.

The upper level trough will quickly move east and be replaced by
zonal flow through the weekend. A surface lee low/trough will
reform in this flow with low level thermal ridging and downslope
flow producing much above normal temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday. In addition breezy to windy conditions will develop
across southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos and the
northern and central Permian Basin by Thursday afternoon as winds
increase through the column. High winds are not out of the
question in the Guadalupe Mountains and later shifts will need
to monitor for a high wind watch for Thursday in that area.

An upper level trough moving across the northern states is
forecast to drop a cold front through the region Friday
with temperatures dropping back to below normal by
Saturday.

West to southwest flow aloft will continue next Sunday through
next Tuesday with much above normal temperatures quickly
developing again. A dryline will develop and push east each day
from the eastern slopes of the mountains in the morning, to the
central or eastern Permian Basin by late afternoon. Late afternoon
and or early evening isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out
east of the dryline but confidence was not high enough at this
time to mention in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  85  55  90  /  20   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              61  87  60  93  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                55  89  52  92  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  58  90  61  96  /  20   0  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  89  61  92  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  78  53  82  /  20   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  84  51  83  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   43  79  43  85  /  20   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  87  55  91  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  87  58  91  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                    55  89  54  93  /  20   0   0   0

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper-lvl trough will make landfall on the PacNW coast Wednesday
afternoon, and dive to the 4 Corners area by late Thursday
afternoon.  Abundant daytime heating over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico will result in unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures
climbing to the 80s and low 90s, yielding minimum RH`s of 5-10
percent.  Forecast soundings mix to above 700mb, where 25-35 mph WSW
flow is forecast to round the base of the upper trough.  This
may result in critical fire weather conditions for much of the day
Thursday, as well as Thursday evening.  Thus, we`ll issue a Fire Wx
Watch for SE NM and adjacent areas.  Fire Danger is currently only
moderate is some of the areas in the watch, but this is expected to
change w/continued heating/drying over the next 36-48 hours.

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Dawson...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44/12

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 311938
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
238 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low pressure area in southwest Mexico will move
east tonight toward the Big Bend and weaken as another trough
moves onshore on the west Coast. This trough will produce a slight
chance of thunderstorms overnight across mainly west Texas. Not
expecting much if any severe weather given the extensive cloud
shield with a weakening upper system approaching after peak
heating with weak dryline/convergence and marginal shear.

The upper level trough will quickly move east and be replaced by
zonal flow through the weekend. A surface lee low/trough will
reform in this flow with low level thermal ridging and downslope
flow producing much above normal temperatures Wednesday and
Thursday. In addition breezy to windy conditions will develop
across southeast New Mexico, the Upper Trans Pecos and the
northern and central Permian Basin by Thursday afternoon as winds
increase through the column. High winds are not out of the
question in the Guadalupe Mountains and later shifts will need
to monitor for a high wind watch for Thursday in that area.

An upper level trough moving across the northern states is
forecast to drop a cold front through the region Friday
with temperatures dropping back to below normal by
Saturday.

West to southwest flow aloft will continue next Sunday through
next Tuesday with much above normal temperatures quickly
developing again. A dryline will develop and push east each day
from the eastern slopes of the mountains in the morning, to the
central or eastern Permian Basin by late afternoon. Late afternoon
and or early evening isolated thunderstorms can not be ruled out
east of the dryline but confidence was not high enough at this
time to mention in the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  85  55  90  /  20   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              61  87  60  93  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                55  89  52  92  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  58  90  61  96  /  20   0  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  89  61  92  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  78  53  82  /  20   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  84  51  83  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   43  79  43  85  /  20   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  87  55  91  /  20   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  87  58  91  /  20   0   0   0
WINK TX                    55  89  54  93  /  20   0   0   0

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper-lvl trough will make landfall on the PacNW coast Wednesday
afternoon, and dive to the 4 Corners area by late Thursday
afternoon.  Abundant daytime heating over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico will result in unseasonably warm afternoon temperatures
climbing to the 80s and low 90s, yielding minimum RH`s of 5-10
percent.  Forecast soundings mix to above 700mb, where 25-35 mph WSW
flow is forecast to round the base of the upper trough.  This
may result in critical fire weather conditions for much of the day
Thursday, as well as Thursday evening.  Thus, we`ll issue a Fire Wx
Watch for SE NM and adjacent areas.  Fire Danger is currently only
moderate is some of the areas in the watch, but this is expected to
change w/continued heating/drying over the next 36-48 hours.

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Dawson...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44/12

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 311713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough making landfall in srn Sonora,
and advecting a thick canopy of CS over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico. According to the models, convection should be
developing over the Presidio Valley/Marfa Plateau right now, but
CS is hindering heating/mixing/instability. For now, VFR
conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Forecast soundings suggest
a cu field developing shortly, w/bases 7-9 kft AGL, and
redeveloping near the end of the forecast period NE zones. We`ll
hold off on a mention of convection attm due to CS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds
will mostly be out of the south to southwest.  There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours for
FST, MAF, INK and PEQ with the best chances at FST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Shallow low level mstr is in place and with daytime heating resulting
in a well mixed boundary layer convective cloud bases today will be
around 6500 ft AGL. As mid/upper level nears the Big Bend later
today there will be an increased chance of storms. Low level mstr
field is depicted to be rather diffuse except INVOF srn Pecos/nrn
Brewster where low level wind fields indicate a convergent area of
low pressure. Glass Mtns will aid in the development/initiation of
storms too. Have kept integrity of previous forecast and have
included mention of severe storms generally from Ft Stockton to Big
Lake...to Sheffield where 0-6km bulk shear increases to near 40kts.
By Wed mid level flow transitions to weak wly, but enough for
surface pressure falls to organize into a well defined lee trof with
a 22C-24C 85h thermal ridge from Panhandle into Upper Trans Pecos.
85h winds mostly 15kts or less in a well mixed and drier boundary
layer. Pattern is even moreso Thur with 85h winds mostly around
20kts and 7h winds 30-35kts. Some differences in surface low with
ECMWF the deepest and with tightest MSLP gradient...a definite
warm/drier/windier day though. Max temperature anomalies will be
about 10-13 degrees above normal, L80s-N90. 7h winds suggest high
winds will be possible in parts of the GDP Mtns. Meanwhile a cold
front will move thru the TX plains Fri AM. Post-frontal breezy
conditions are expected Fri AM across PB and across the Trans Pecos
in the PM as 7mb/3hr isallobaric pushes the front. Noticeably cooler
N of the Pecos River Fri PM, by about 20 degrees. 85h temps of
20-22c along the Rio Grande/Big Bend regions suggest temps will
still be in the 80s there. Light QPF generated by models Sat PM for
the Trans Pecos (mainly) within pocket of steeper mid level lapse
rates/upslope flow. By Easter Sunday warm low level air will already
be surging ewd and 85h temperatures may be as warm as 20C in the e
to 24C in the w. Mid level flow on Monday is setting up to be a warm
(+15 temperature departures), dry, and windy day. The warm/dry air
does not really go anywhere Tue, but winds relax some.

FIRE WEATHER...
The warmer/dry pattern on Wed will serve to dry fine fuels while
the lack of significant wind will preclude a greater and more
widespread concern. The possible exception on Wed will be the
GDP/Delaware Mtns where ridge top winds near 20-25 mph are
expected. A more substantial concern is expected to develop Thur
when 85h-7h winds increase and much drier air surges out east
across much of the area. At this point there is a good indication
that a Fire Wx Watch will be needed for most areas except the
Lower Trans Pecos. Fuels are a concern though. Across much of the
PB there has been some green-up, however farther w in SE NM and
certainly the mtns there`s been less/no green-up, respectively.
TA&MFS` most recent assessment of fuel suggest that Initial Attack
type fires/response will increase, however the larger fuels as
seen in data like the ERC/Fuel Dryness indicates fires will
generally not show too much resistance to control. Exceptions
could be in the mtns including Davis/Delaware/GDP where there may
be higher grass loading. After the front on Fri fire wx concerns
will be renewed Sun-Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 311713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough making landfall in srn Sonora,
and advecting a thick canopy of CS over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico. According to the models, convection should be
developing over the Presidio Valley/Marfa Plateau right now, but
CS is hindering heating/mixing/instability. For now, VFR
conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Forecast soundings suggest
a cu field developing shortly, w/bases 7-9 kft AGL, and
redeveloping near the end of the forecast period NE zones. We`ll
hold off on a mention of convection attm due to CS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds
will mostly be out of the south to southwest.  There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours for
FST, MAF, INK and PEQ with the best chances at FST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Shallow low level mstr is in place and with daytime heating resulting
in a well mixed boundary layer convective cloud bases today will be
around 6500 ft AGL. As mid/upper level nears the Big Bend later
today there will be an increased chance of storms. Low level mstr
field is depicted to be rather diffuse except INVOF srn Pecos/nrn
Brewster where low level wind fields indicate a convergent area of
low pressure. Glass Mtns will aid in the development/initiation of
storms too. Have kept integrity of previous forecast and have
included mention of severe storms generally from Ft Stockton to Big
Lake...to Sheffield where 0-6km bulk shear increases to near 40kts.
By Wed mid level flow transitions to weak wly, but enough for
surface pressure falls to organize into a well defined lee trof with
a 22C-24C 85h thermal ridge from Panhandle into Upper Trans Pecos.
85h winds mostly 15kts or less in a well mixed and drier boundary
layer. Pattern is even moreso Thur with 85h winds mostly around
20kts and 7h winds 30-35kts. Some differences in surface low with
ECMWF the deepest and with tightest MSLP gradient...a definite
warm/drier/windier day though. Max temperature anomalies will be
about 10-13 degrees above normal, L80s-N90. 7h winds suggest high
winds will be possible in parts of the GDP Mtns. Meanwhile a cold
front will move thru the TX plains Fri AM. Post-frontal breezy
conditions are expected Fri AM across PB and across the Trans Pecos
in the PM as 7mb/3hr isallobaric pushes the front. Noticeably cooler
N of the Pecos River Fri PM, by about 20 degrees. 85h temps of
20-22c along the Rio Grande/Big Bend regions suggest temps will
still be in the 80s there. Light QPF generated by models Sat PM for
the Trans Pecos (mainly) within pocket of steeper mid level lapse
rates/upslope flow. By Easter Sunday warm low level air will already
be surging ewd and 85h temperatures may be as warm as 20C in the e
to 24C in the w. Mid level flow on Monday is setting up to be a warm
(+15 temperature departures), dry, and windy day. The warm/dry air
does not really go anywhere Tue, but winds relax some.

FIRE WEATHER...
The warmer/dry pattern on Wed will serve to dry fine fuels while
the lack of significant wind will preclude a greater and more
widespread concern. The possible exception on Wed will be the
GDP/Delaware Mtns where ridge top winds near 20-25 mph are
expected. A more substantial concern is expected to develop Thur
when 85h-7h winds increase and much drier air surges out east
across much of the area. At this point there is a good indication
that a Fire Wx Watch will be needed for most areas except the
Lower Trans Pecos. Fuels are a concern though. Across much of the
PB there has been some green-up, however farther w in SE NM and
certainly the mtns there`s been less/no green-up, respectively.
TA&MFS` most recent assessment of fuel suggest that Initial Attack
type fires/response will increase, however the larger fuels as
seen in data like the ERC/Fuel Dryness indicates fires will
generally not show too much resistance to control. Exceptions
could be in the mtns including Davis/Delaware/GDP where there may
be higher grass loading. After the front on Fri fire wx concerns
will be renewed Sun-Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 311713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough making landfall in srn Sonora,
and advecting a thick canopy of CS over West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico. According to the models, convection should be
developing over the Presidio Valley/Marfa Plateau right now, but
CS is hindering heating/mixing/instability. For now, VFR
conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Forecast soundings suggest
a cu field developing shortly, w/bases 7-9 kft AGL, and
redeveloping near the end of the forecast period NE zones. We`ll
hold off on a mention of convection attm due to CS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds
will mostly be out of the south to southwest.  There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours for
FST, MAF, INK and PEQ with the best chances at FST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Shallow low level mstr is in place and with daytime heating resulting
in a well mixed boundary layer convective cloud bases today will be
around 6500 ft AGL. As mid/upper level nears the Big Bend later
today there will be an increased chance of storms. Low level mstr
field is depicted to be rather diffuse except INVOF srn Pecos/nrn
Brewster where low level wind fields indicate a convergent area of
low pressure. Glass Mtns will aid in the development/initiation of
storms too. Have kept integrity of previous forecast and have
included mention of severe storms generally from Ft Stockton to Big
Lake...to Sheffield where 0-6km bulk shear increases to near 40kts.
By Wed mid level flow transitions to weak wly, but enough for
surface pressure falls to organize into a well defined lee trof with
a 22C-24C 85h thermal ridge from Panhandle into Upper Trans Pecos.
85h winds mostly 15kts or less in a well mixed and drier boundary
layer. Pattern is even moreso Thur with 85h winds mostly around
20kts and 7h winds 30-35kts. Some differences in surface low with
ECMWF the deepest and with tightest MSLP gradient...a definite
warm/drier/windier day though. Max temperature anomalies will be
about 10-13 degrees above normal, L80s-N90. 7h winds suggest high
winds will be possible in parts of the GDP Mtns. Meanwhile a cold
front will move thru the TX plains Fri AM. Post-frontal breezy
conditions are expected Fri AM across PB and across the Trans Pecos
in the PM as 7mb/3hr isallobaric pushes the front. Noticeably cooler
N of the Pecos River Fri PM, by about 20 degrees. 85h temps of
20-22c along the Rio Grande/Big Bend regions suggest temps will
still be in the 80s there. Light QPF generated by models Sat PM for
the Trans Pecos (mainly) within pocket of steeper mid level lapse
rates/upslope flow. By Easter Sunday warm low level air will already
be surging ewd and 85h temperatures may be as warm as 20C in the e
to 24C in the w. Mid level flow on Monday is setting up to be a warm
(+15 temperature departures), dry, and windy day. The warm/dry air
does not really go anywhere Tue, but winds relax some.

FIRE WEATHER...
The warmer/dry pattern on Wed will serve to dry fine fuels while
the lack of significant wind will preclude a greater and more
widespread concern. The possible exception on Wed will be the
GDP/Delaware Mtns where ridge top winds near 20-25 mph are
expected. A more substantial concern is expected to develop Thur
when 85h-7h winds increase and much drier air surges out east
across much of the area. At this point there is a good indication
that a Fire Wx Watch will be needed for most areas except the
Lower Trans Pecos. Fuels are a concern though. Across much of the
PB there has been some green-up, however farther w in SE NM and
certainly the mtns there`s been less/no green-up, respectively.
TA&MFS` most recent assessment of fuel suggest that Initial Attack
type fires/response will increase, however the larger fuels as
seen in data like the ERC/Fuel Dryness indicates fires will
generally not show too much resistance to control. Exceptions
could be in the mtns including Davis/Delaware/GDP where there may
be higher grass loading. After the front on Fri fire wx concerns
will be renewed Sun-Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 311102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds
will mostly be out of the south to southwest.  There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours for
FST, MAF, INK and PEQ with the best chances at FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Shallow low level mstr is in place and with daytime heating resulting
in a well mixed boundary layer convective cloud bases today will be
around 6500 ft AGL. As mid/upper level nears the Big Bend later
today there will be an increased chance of storms. Low level mstr
field is depicted to be rather diffuse except INVOF srn Pecos/nrn
Brewster where low level wind fields indicate a convergent area of
low pressure. Glass Mtns will aid in the development/initiation of
storms too. Have kept integrity of previous forecast and have
included mention of severe storms generally from Ft Stockton to Big
Lake...to Sheffield where 0-6km bulk shear increases to near 40kts.
By Wed mid level flow transitions to weak wly, but enough for
surface pressure falls to organize into a well defined lee trof with
a 22C-24C 85h thermal ridge from Panhandle into Upper Trans Pecos.
85h winds mostly 15kts or less in a well mixed and drier boundary
layer. Pattern is even moreso Thur with 85h winds mostly around
20kts and 7h winds 30-35kts. Some differences in surface low with
ECMWF the deepest and with tightest MSLP gradient...a definite
warm/drier/windier day though. Max temperature anomalies will be
about 10-13 degrees above normal, L80s-N90. 7h winds suggest high
winds will be possible in parts of the GDP Mtns. Meanwhile a cold
front will move thru the TX plains Fri AM. Post-frontal breezy
conditions are expected Fri AM across PB and across the Trans Pecos
in the PM as 7mb/3hr isallobaric pushes the front. Noticeably cooler
N of the Pecos River Fri PM, by about 20 degrees. 85h temps of
20-22c along the Rio Grande/Big Bend regions suggest temps will
still be in the 80s there. Light QPF generated by models Sat PM for
the Trans Pecos (mainly) within pocket of steeper mid level lapse
rates/upslope flow. By Easter Sunday warm low level air will already
be surging ewd and 85h temperatures may be as warm as 20C in the e
to 24C in the w. Mid level flow on Monday is setting up to be a warm
(+15 temperature departures), dry, and windy day. The warm/dry air
does not really go anywhere Tue, but winds relax some.

FIRE WEATHER...
The warmer/dry pattern on Wed will serve to dry fine fuels while
the lack of significant wind will preclude a greater and more
widespread concern. The possible exception on Wed will be the
GDP/Delaware Mtns where ridge top winds near 20-25 mph are
expected. A more substantial concern is expected to develop Thur
when 85h-7h winds increase and much drier air surges out east
across much of the area. At this point there is a good indication
that a Fire Wx Watch will be needed for most areas except the
Lower Trans Pecos. Fuels are a concern though. Across much of the
PB there has been some green-up, however farther w in SE NM and
certainly the mtns there`s been less/no green-up, respectively.
TA&MFS` most recent assessment of fuel suggest that Initial Attack
type fires/response will increase, however the larger fuels as
seen in data like the ERC/Fuel Dryness indicates fires will
generally not show too much resistance to control. Exceptions
could be in the mtns including Davis/Delaware/GDP where there may
be higher grass loading. After the front on Fri fire wx concerns
will be renewed Sun-Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 311102
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds
will mostly be out of the south to southwest.  There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours for
FST, MAF, INK and PEQ with the best chances at FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Shallow low level mstr is in place and with daytime heating resulting
in a well mixed boundary layer convective cloud bases today will be
around 6500 ft AGL. As mid/upper level nears the Big Bend later
today there will be an increased chance of storms. Low level mstr
field is depicted to be rather diffuse except INVOF srn Pecos/nrn
Brewster where low level wind fields indicate a convergent area of
low pressure. Glass Mtns will aid in the development/initiation of
storms too. Have kept integrity of previous forecast and have
included mention of severe storms generally from Ft Stockton to Big
Lake...to Sheffield where 0-6km bulk shear increases to near 40kts.
By Wed mid level flow transitions to weak wly, but enough for
surface pressure falls to organize into a well defined lee trof with
a 22C-24C 85h thermal ridge from Panhandle into Upper Trans Pecos.
85h winds mostly 15kts or less in a well mixed and drier boundary
layer. Pattern is even moreso Thur with 85h winds mostly around
20kts and 7h winds 30-35kts. Some differences in surface low with
ECMWF the deepest and with tightest MSLP gradient...a definite
warm/drier/windier day though. Max temperature anomalies will be
about 10-13 degrees above normal, L80s-N90. 7h winds suggest high
winds will be possible in parts of the GDP Mtns. Meanwhile a cold
front will move thru the TX plains Fri AM. Post-frontal breezy
conditions are expected Fri AM across PB and across the Trans Pecos
in the PM as 7mb/3hr isallobaric pushes the front. Noticeably cooler
N of the Pecos River Fri PM, by about 20 degrees. 85h temps of
20-22c along the Rio Grande/Big Bend regions suggest temps will
still be in the 80s there. Light QPF generated by models Sat PM for
the Trans Pecos (mainly) within pocket of steeper mid level lapse
rates/upslope flow. By Easter Sunday warm low level air will already
be surging ewd and 85h temperatures may be as warm as 20C in the e
to 24C in the w. Mid level flow on Monday is setting up to be a warm
(+15 temperature departures), dry, and windy day. The warm/dry air
does not really go anywhere Tue, but winds relax some.

FIRE WEATHER...
The warmer/dry pattern on Wed will serve to dry fine fuels while
the lack of significant wind will preclude a greater and more
widespread concern. The possible exception on Wed will be the
GDP/Delaware Mtns where ridge top winds near 20-25 mph are
expected. A more substantial concern is expected to develop Thur
when 85h-7h winds increase and much drier air surges out east
across much of the area. At this point there is a good indication
that a Fire Wx Watch will be needed for most areas except the
Lower Trans Pecos. Fuels are a concern though. Across much of the
PB there has been some green-up, however farther w in SE NM and
certainly the mtns there`s been less/no green-up, respectively.
TA&MFS` most recent assessment of fuel suggest that Initial Attack
type fires/response will increase, however the larger fuels as
seen in data like the ERC/Fuel Dryness indicates fires will
generally not show too much resistance to control. Exceptions
could be in the mtns including Davis/Delaware/GDP where there may
be higher grass loading. After the front on Fri fire wx concerns
will be renewed Sun-Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 310816
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
316 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Shallow low level mstr is in place and with daytime heating resulting
in a well mixed boundary layer convective cloud bases today will be
around 6500 ft AGL. As mid/upper level nears the Big Bend later today
there will be an increased chance of storms. Low level mstr field is
depicted to be rather diffuse except INVOF srn Pecos/nrn Brewster
where low level wind fields indicate a convergent area of low
pressure. Glass Mtns will aid in the development/initiation of
storms too. Have kept integrity of previous forecast and have
included mention of severe storms generally from Ft Stockton to Big
Lake...to Sheffield where 0-6km bulk shear increases to near 40kts.
By Wed mid level flow transitions to weak wly, but enough for
surface pressure falls to organize into a well defined lee trof with
a 22C-24C 85h thermal ridge from Panhandle into Upper Trans Pecos.
85h winds mostly 15kts or less in a well mixed and drier boundary
layer. Pattern is even moreso Thur with 85h winds mostly around
20kts and 7h winds 30-35kts. Some differences in surface low with
ECMWF the deepest and with tightest MSLP gradient...a definite
warm/drier/windier day though. Max temperature anomalies will be
about 10-13 degrees above normal, L80s-N90. 7h winds suggest high
winds will be possible in parts of the GDP Mtns. Meanwhile a cold
front will move thru the TX plains Fri AM. Post-frontal breezy
conditions are expected Fri AM across PB and across the Trans Pecos
in the PM as 7mb/3hr isallobaric pushes the front. Noticeably cooler
N of the Pecos River Fri PM, by about 20 degrees. 85h temps of
20-22c along the Rio Grande/Big Bend regions suggest temps will still
be in the 80s there. Light QPF generated by models Sat PM for the
Trans Pecos (mainly) within pocket of steeper mid level lapse
rates/upslope flow. By Easter Sunday warm low level air will already
be surging ewd and 85h temperatures may be as warm as 20C in the e
to 24C in the w. Mid level flow on Monday is setting up to be a warm
(+15 temperature departures), dry, and windy day. The warm/dry air
does not really go anywhere Tue, but winds relax some.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The warmer/dry pattern on Wed will serve to dry fine fuels while
the lack of significant wind will preclude a greater and more
widespread concern. The possible exception on Wed will be the
GDP/Delaware Mtns where ridge top winds near 20-25 mph are
expected. A more substantial concern is expected to develop Thur
when 85h-7h winds increase and much drier air surges out east
across much of the area. At this point there is a good indication
that a Fire Wx Watch will be needed for most areas except the
Lower Trans Pecos. Fuels are a concern though. Across much of the
PB there has been some green-up, however farther w in SE NM and
certainly the mtns there`s been less/no green-up, respectively.
TA&MFS` most recent assessment of fuel suggest that Initial Attack
type fires/response will increase, however the larger fuels as
seen in data like the ERC/Fuel Dryness indicates fires will
generally not show too much resistance to control. Exceptions
could be in the mtns including Davis/Delaware/GDP where there may
be higher grass loading. After the front on Fri fire wx concerns
will be renewed Sun-Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  55  85  56  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              87  59  87  59  /  30  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  53  88  55  /  10  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  83  59  88  59  /  30  30  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  57  86  59  /  50  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  52  78  54  /  20  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   84  52  84  52  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   74  45  79  47  /  30  20   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  56  87  57  /  30  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  85  57  87  58  /  30  20  10  10
WINK TX                    87  54  88  54  /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 310816
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
316 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Shallow low level mstr is in place and with daytime heating resulting
in a well mixed boundary layer convective cloud bases today will be
around 6500 ft AGL. As mid/upper level nears the Big Bend later today
there will be an increased chance of storms. Low level mstr field is
depicted to be rather diffuse except INVOF srn Pecos/nrn Brewster
where low level wind fields indicate a convergent area of low
pressure. Glass Mtns will aid in the development/initiation of
storms too. Have kept integrity of previous forecast and have
included mention of severe storms generally from Ft Stockton to Big
Lake...to Sheffield where 0-6km bulk shear increases to near 40kts.
By Wed mid level flow transitions to weak wly, but enough for
surface pressure falls to organize into a well defined lee trof with
a 22C-24C 85h thermal ridge from Panhandle into Upper Trans Pecos.
85h winds mostly 15kts or less in a well mixed and drier boundary
layer. Pattern is even moreso Thur with 85h winds mostly around
20kts and 7h winds 30-35kts. Some differences in surface low with
ECMWF the deepest and with tightest MSLP gradient...a definite
warm/drier/windier day though. Max temperature anomalies will be
about 10-13 degrees above normal, L80s-N90. 7h winds suggest high
winds will be possible in parts of the GDP Mtns. Meanwhile a cold
front will move thru the TX plains Fri AM. Post-frontal breezy
conditions are expected Fri AM across PB and across the Trans Pecos
in the PM as 7mb/3hr isallobaric pushes the front. Noticeably cooler
N of the Pecos River Fri PM, by about 20 degrees. 85h temps of
20-22c along the Rio Grande/Big Bend regions suggest temps will still
be in the 80s there. Light QPF generated by models Sat PM for the
Trans Pecos (mainly) within pocket of steeper mid level lapse
rates/upslope flow. By Easter Sunday warm low level air will already
be surging ewd and 85h temperatures may be as warm as 20C in the e
to 24C in the w. Mid level flow on Monday is setting up to be a warm
(+15 temperature departures), dry, and windy day. The warm/dry air
does not really go anywhere Tue, but winds relax some.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The warmer/dry pattern on Wed will serve to dry fine fuels while
the lack of significant wind will preclude a greater and more
widespread concern. The possible exception on Wed will be the
GDP/Delaware Mtns where ridge top winds near 20-25 mph are
expected. A more substantial concern is expected to develop Thur
when 85h-7h winds increase and much drier air surges out east
across much of the area. At this point there is a good indication
that a Fire Wx Watch will be needed for most areas except the
Lower Trans Pecos. Fuels are a concern though. Across much of the
PB there has been some green-up, however farther w in SE NM and
certainly the mtns there`s been less/no green-up, respectively.
TA&MFS` most recent assessment of fuel suggest that Initial Attack
type fires/response will increase, however the larger fuels as
seen in data like the ERC/Fuel Dryness indicates fires will
generally not show too much resistance to control. Exceptions
could be in the mtns including Davis/Delaware/GDP where there may
be higher grass loading. After the front on Fri fire wx concerns
will be renewed Sun-Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  55  85  56  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              87  59  87  59  /  30  20  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                85  53  88  55  /  10  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  83  59  88  59  /  30  30  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  57  86  59  /  50  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  52  78  54  /  20  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   84  52  84  52  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   74  45  79  47  /  30  20   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  56  87  57  /  30  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  85  57  87  58  /  30  20  10  10
WINK TX                    87  54  88  54  /  20  20   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 310502
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds
will mostly be out of the south to southwest.  There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours for
FST, MAF, INK and PEQ with the best chances at FST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front.  In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as
well.

Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z.  Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning.  Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints.  As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east.  Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and
mid-lvl LR`s of nr 7C/km.  Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable
for a hail threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play.
We`ll put a mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for
this for Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Convection should clear the
area to the east by 06Z Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup.  Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature.  Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.

Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday.  minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 310502
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds
will mostly be out of the south to southwest.  There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours for
FST, MAF, INK and PEQ with the best chances at FST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front.  In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as
well.

Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z.  Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning.  Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints.  As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east.  Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and
mid-lvl LR`s of nr 7C/km.  Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable
for a hail threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play.
We`ll put a mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for
this for Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Convection should clear the
area to the east by 06Z Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup.  Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature.  Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.

Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday.  minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 310502
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds
will mostly be out of the south to southwest.  There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours for
FST, MAF, INK and PEQ with the best chances at FST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front.  In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as
well.

Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z.  Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning.  Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints.  As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east.  Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and
mid-lvl LR`s of nr 7C/km.  Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable
for a hail threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play.
We`ll put a mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for
this for Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Convection should clear the
area to the east by 06Z Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup.  Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature.  Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.

Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday.  minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 310502
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1151 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are generally expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds
will mostly be out of the south to southwest.  There is a chance of
showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours for
FST, MAF, INK and PEQ with the best chances at FST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front.  In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as
well.

Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z.  Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning.  Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints.  As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east.  Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and
mid-lvl LR`s of nr 7C/km.  Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable
for a hail threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play.
We`ll put a mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for
this for Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Convection should clear the
area to the east by 06Z Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup.  Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature.  Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.

Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday.  minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 302315
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds expected through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front.  In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as
well.

Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z.  Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning.  Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints.  As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east.  Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and mid-lvl
LR`s of nr 7C/km.  Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable for a hail
threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play.  We`ll put a
mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for this for
Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Convection should clear the area to the
east by 06Z Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup.  Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature.  Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.

Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday.  minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 302315
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds expected through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front.  In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as
well.

Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z.  Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning.  Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints.  As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east.  Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and mid-lvl
LR`s of nr 7C/km.  Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable for a hail
threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play.  We`ll put a
mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for this for
Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Convection should clear the area to the
east by 06Z Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup.  Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature.  Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.

Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday.  minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 302315
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds expected through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front.  In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as
well.

Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z.  Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning.  Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints.  As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east.  Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and mid-lvl
LR`s of nr 7C/km.  Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable for a hail
threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play.  We`ll put a
mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for this for
Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Convection should clear the area to the
east by 06Z Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup.  Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature.  Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.

Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday.  minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 302315
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds expected through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front.  In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as
well.

Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z.  Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning.  Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints.  As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east.  Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and mid-lvl
LR`s of nr 7C/km.  Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable for a hail
threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play.  We`ll put a
mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for this for
Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Convection should clear the area to the
east by 06Z Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup.  Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature.  Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.

Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday.  minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 301950
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front.  In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as
well.

Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z.  Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning.  Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints.  As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east.  Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and mid-lvl
LR`s of nr 7C/km.  Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable for a hail
threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play.  We`ll put a
mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for this for
Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Convection should clear the area to the
east by 06Z Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup.  Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature.  Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.

Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday.  minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  82  52  86  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              62  87  62  89  /   0  30  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  81  50  87  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  61  84  59  90  /   0  50  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           61  86  59  88  /  10  40  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  75  52  77  /   0  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                   52  81  49  83  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   49  74  46  78  /   0  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  86  57  86  /   0  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  60  85  56  86  /   0  20  10  10
WINK TX                    54  86  52  90  /   0  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 301950
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front.  In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as
well.

Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z.  Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning.  Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints.  As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east.  Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and mid-lvl
LR`s of nr 7C/km.  Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable for a hail
threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play.  We`ll put a
mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for this for
Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Convection should clear the area to the
east by 06Z Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup.  Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature.  Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.

Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday.  minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  82  52  86  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              62  87  62  89  /   0  30  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  81  50  87  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  61  84  59  90  /   0  50  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           61  86  59  88  /  10  40  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  75  52  77  /   0  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                   52  81  49  83  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   49  74  46  78  /   0  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  86  57  86  /   0  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  60  85  56  86  /   0  20  10  10
WINK TX                    54  86  52  90  /   0  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 301950
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
250 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge, or what`s left of it, over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, but w/afternoon temps struggling to
reach normal in the wake of last night`s cold front.  In addition, a
fetch of subtropical moisture streaming around the base of the Baja
trough is bringing a canopy of CS over the region to retard temps as
well.

Sfc obs show abundant low-lvl moisture over the ern half of the FA,
w/a Td of 53F at KMAF at 19Z.  Return flow is forecast to back this
up against the wrn mtns overnight, as the Baja trough moves onshore
and begins sharpening up a weak dryline Tuesday morning.  Models
differ as to dryline placement, but we`ll go w/the NAM for now,
which places it furthest west, considering current dewpoints.  As
the Baja trough enters the area, large-scale ascent should initiate
convection along the dryline around 18Z or shortly thereafter, begin
developing east.  Forecast soundings continue to develop sbcapes in
excess of 2500 J/kg east of the dryline by mid-afternoon, and mid-lvl
LR`s of nr 7C/km.  Wet-bulb zero heights remain favorable for a hail
threat, and a dry PBL to keep damaging winds in play.  We`ll put a
mention of svr in the grids for our ern-tiered zones for this for
Tuesday afternoon/evening.  Convection should clear the area to the
east by 06Z Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/a
gradual warmup.  Thursday, an upper trough will approach the 4
Corners, w/a 25-35kt H7 jet forecast to round the base of this
feature.  Forecast soundings at KGDP/KCNM mix out to above H7
Thursday afternoon, setting the stage for likely critical fire wx
conditions across the Guadalupes, SE NM, and adjacent areas for
Thursday afternoon.

Friday, a cold front arrives to put the kibosh on the warmer wx,
w/temps coming in about two cats blo normal Saturday.  minor
disturbances are forecast to move thru SW flow aloft over the
weekend, favoring a slight chance of convection over the SE zones,
before warmer wx returns Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  82  52  86  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              62  87  62  89  /   0  30  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  81  50  87  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  61  84  59  90  /   0  50  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           61  86  59  88  /  10  40  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  75  52  77  /   0  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                   52  81  49  83  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   49  74  46  78  /   0  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  86  57  86  /   0  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  60  85  56  86  /   0  20  10  10
WINK TX                    54  86  52  90  /   0  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 301710
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours with an abundance of mid and
high clouds. There is some chance that MVFR ceilings could
develop toward sunrise at KMAF and or KINK but confidence was
not high enough to include. Will monitor for the next issuance.
Winds will generally be under 10 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
VFR with abundant mid and high clouds. Light northerly wind this
morning will veer around to the SE during the afternoon as leeside
trough deepens.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a
A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja
overnight.  Shortwaves from this low will move into the area Tuesday
bringing the possibility of storms.  After that a flat ridge builds
across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work
week.  By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area
from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.

A weak front moved through Sunday.  Will start off the day with a NE
wind but this will veer around to the SE by afternoon as a leeside
trough deepens.  Temperatures will be a little cooler today than
past several days but guidance not as cool as previous runs.  Highs
will be in the 70s and 80s today.  Temps begin to climb again
Tuesday with upper 80s returning Wednesday and Thursday.  A front on
Friday will knock highs back into the 70s with even cooler readings
on Saturday.

Would like to say models are in agreement as to rain chances but ETA
is much wetter than GFS with ECM some where in between.  The Eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will have best chance of seeing
storms Tuesday.  Storms will mainly be during the afternoon as a weak
dryline develops and combines with upper support... but models are
also developing rain farther to the west.  Look to have decent but
not great low level moisture with dewpts into the 50s for the east.
Current forecast has highest pops in the east and this looks on
track so left as is.  Did raise pops a little back to the west.  Some
of these storms could be strong to severe and will continue to
highlight in HWO.  If models come more into agreement could see pops
increase or decrease for Tuesday.  By next weekend the next upper
trough coming off the west coast may bring another chance of storms
to the area... will continue low pops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  56  83  54  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              83  60  86  58  /   0  10  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                80  53  84  52  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  61  84  61  /   0  10  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  60  86  59  /   0  10  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  55  77  50  /   0  10  20  10
HOBBS NM                   77  53  83  52  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   82  45  77  42  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  58  84  55  /   0  10  30  20
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  56  /   0  10  30  20
WINK TX                    82  54  87  52  /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301710
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours with an abundance of mid and
high clouds. There is some chance that MVFR ceilings could
develop toward sunrise at KMAF and or KINK but confidence was
not high enough to include. Will monitor for the next issuance.
Winds will generally be under 10 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
VFR with abundant mid and high clouds. Light northerly wind this
morning will veer around to the SE during the afternoon as leeside
trough deepens.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a
A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja
overnight.  Shortwaves from this low will move into the area Tuesday
bringing the possibility of storms.  After that a flat ridge builds
across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work
week.  By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area
from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.

A weak front moved through Sunday.  Will start off the day with a NE
wind but this will veer around to the SE by afternoon as a leeside
trough deepens.  Temperatures will be a little cooler today than
past several days but guidance not as cool as previous runs.  Highs
will be in the 70s and 80s today.  Temps begin to climb again
Tuesday with upper 80s returning Wednesday and Thursday.  A front on
Friday will knock highs back into the 70s with even cooler readings
on Saturday.

Would like to say models are in agreement as to rain chances but ETA
is much wetter than GFS with ECM some where in between.  The Eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will have best chance of seeing
storms Tuesday.  Storms will mainly be during the afternoon as a weak
dryline develops and combines with upper support... but models are
also developing rain farther to the west.  Look to have decent but
not great low level moisture with dewpts into the 50s for the east.
Current forecast has highest pops in the east and this looks on
track so left as is.  Did raise pops a little back to the west.  Some
of these storms could be strong to severe and will continue to
highlight in HWO.  If models come more into agreement could see pops
increase or decrease for Tuesday.  By next weekend the next upper
trough coming off the west coast may bring another chance of storms
to the area... will continue low pops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  56  83  54  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              83  60  86  58  /   0  10  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                80  53  84  52  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  61  84  61  /   0  10  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  60  86  59  /   0  10  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  55  77  50  /   0  10  20  10
HOBBS NM                   77  53  83  52  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   82  45  77  42  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  58  84  55  /   0  10  30  20
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  56  /   0  10  30  20
WINK TX                    82  54  87  52  /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301710
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours with an abundance of mid and
high clouds. There is some chance that MVFR ceilings could
develop toward sunrise at KMAF and or KINK but confidence was
not high enough to include. Will monitor for the next issuance.
Winds will generally be under 10 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
VFR with abundant mid and high clouds. Light northerly wind this
morning will veer around to the SE during the afternoon as leeside
trough deepens.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a
A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja
overnight.  Shortwaves from this low will move into the area Tuesday
bringing the possibility of storms.  After that a flat ridge builds
across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work
week.  By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area
from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.

A weak front moved through Sunday.  Will start off the day with a NE
wind but this will veer around to the SE by afternoon as a leeside
trough deepens.  Temperatures will be a little cooler today than
past several days but guidance not as cool as previous runs.  Highs
will be in the 70s and 80s today.  Temps begin to climb again
Tuesday with upper 80s returning Wednesday and Thursday.  A front on
Friday will knock highs back into the 70s with even cooler readings
on Saturday.

Would like to say models are in agreement as to rain chances but ETA
is much wetter than GFS with ECM some where in between.  The Eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will have best chance of seeing
storms Tuesday.  Storms will mainly be during the afternoon as a weak
dryline develops and combines with upper support... but models are
also developing rain farther to the west.  Look to have decent but
not great low level moisture with dewpts into the 50s for the east.
Current forecast has highest pops in the east and this looks on
track so left as is.  Did raise pops a little back to the west.  Some
of these storms could be strong to severe and will continue to
highlight in HWO.  If models come more into agreement could see pops
increase or decrease for Tuesday.  By next weekend the next upper
trough coming off the west coast may bring another chance of storms
to the area... will continue low pops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  56  83  54  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              83  60  86  58  /   0  10  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                80  53  84  52  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  61  84  61  /   0  10  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  60  86  59  /   0  10  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  55  77  50  /   0  10  20  10
HOBBS NM                   77  53  83  52  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   82  45  77  42  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  58  84  55  /   0  10  30  20
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  56  /   0  10  30  20
WINK TX                    82  54  87  52  /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301710
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals the next 24 hours with an abundance of mid and
high clouds. There is some chance that MVFR ceilings could
develop toward sunrise at KMAF and or KINK but confidence was
not high enough to include. Will monitor for the next issuance.
Winds will generally be under 10 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
VFR with abundant mid and high clouds. Light northerly wind this
morning will veer around to the SE during the afternoon as leeside
trough deepens.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a
A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja
overnight.  Shortwaves from this low will move into the area Tuesday
bringing the possibility of storms.  After that a flat ridge builds
across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work
week.  By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area
from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.

A weak front moved through Sunday.  Will start off the day with a NE
wind but this will veer around to the SE by afternoon as a leeside
trough deepens.  Temperatures will be a little cooler today than
past several days but guidance not as cool as previous runs.  Highs
will be in the 70s and 80s today.  Temps begin to climb again
Tuesday with upper 80s returning Wednesday and Thursday.  A front on
Friday will knock highs back into the 70s with even cooler readings
on Saturday.

Would like to say models are in agreement as to rain chances but ETA
is much wetter than GFS with ECM some where in between.  The Eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will have best chance of seeing
storms Tuesday.  Storms will mainly be during the afternoon as a weak
dryline develops and combines with upper support... but models are
also developing rain farther to the west.  Look to have decent but
not great low level moisture with dewpts into the 50s for the east.
Current forecast has highest pops in the east and this looks on
track so left as is.  Did raise pops a little back to the west.  Some
of these storms could be strong to severe and will continue to
highlight in HWO.  If models come more into agreement could see pops
increase or decrease for Tuesday.  By next weekend the next upper
trough coming off the west coast may bring another chance of storms
to the area... will continue low pops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  56  83  54  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              83  60  86  58  /   0  10  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                80  53  84  52  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  61  84  61  /   0  10  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  60  86  59  /   0  10  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  55  77  50  /   0  10  20  10
HOBBS NM                   77  53  83  52  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   82  45  77  42  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  58  84  55  /   0  10  30  20
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  56  /   0  10  30  20
WINK TX                    82  54  87  52  /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301111
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with abundant mid and high clouds. Light northerly wind this
morning will veer around to the SE during the afternoon as leeside
trough deepens.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a
A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja
overnight.  Shortwaves from this low will move into the area Tuesday
bringing the possibility of storms.  After that a flat ridge builds
across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work
week.  By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area
from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.

A weak front moved through Sunday.  Will start off the day with a NE
wind but this will veer around to the SE by afternoon as a leeside
trough deepens.  Temperatures will be a little cooler today than
past several days but guidance not as cool as previous runs.  Highs
will be in the 70s and 80s today.  Temps begin to climb again
Tuesday with upper 80s returning Wednesday and Thursday.  A front on
Friday will knock highs back into the 70s with even cooler readings
on Saturday.

Would like to say models are in agreement as to rain chances but ETA
is much wetter than GFS with ECM some where in between.  The Eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will have best chance of seeing
storms Tuesday.  Storms will mainly be during the afternoon as a weak
dryline develops and combines with upper support... but models are
also developing rain farther to the west.  Look to have decent but
not great low level moisture with dewpts into the 50s for the east.
Current forecast has highest pops in the east and this looks on
track so left as is.  Did raise pops a little back to the west.  Some
of these storms could be strong to severe and will continue to
highlight in HWO.  If models come more into agreement could see pops
increase or decrease for Tuesday.  By next weekend the next upper
trough coming off the west coast may bring another chance of storms
to the area... will continue low pops.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 301111
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with abundant mid and high clouds. Light northerly wind this
morning will veer around to the SE during the afternoon as leeside
trough deepens.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a
A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja
overnight.  Shortwaves from this low will move into the area Tuesday
bringing the possibility of storms.  After that a flat ridge builds
across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work
week.  By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area
from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.

A weak front moved through Sunday.  Will start off the day with a NE
wind but this will veer around to the SE by afternoon as a leeside
trough deepens.  Temperatures will be a little cooler today than
past several days but guidance not as cool as previous runs.  Highs
will be in the 70s and 80s today.  Temps begin to climb again
Tuesday with upper 80s returning Wednesday and Thursday.  A front on
Friday will knock highs back into the 70s with even cooler readings
on Saturday.

Would like to say models are in agreement as to rain chances but ETA
is much wetter than GFS with ECM some where in between.  The Eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will have best chance of seeing
storms Tuesday.  Storms will mainly be during the afternoon as a weak
dryline develops and combines with upper support... but models are
also developing rain farther to the west.  Look to have decent but
not great low level moisture with dewpts into the 50s for the east.
Current forecast has highest pops in the east and this looks on
track so left as is.  Did raise pops a little back to the west.  Some
of these storms could be strong to severe and will continue to
highlight in HWO.  If models come more into agreement could see pops
increase or decrease for Tuesday.  By next weekend the next upper
trough coming off the west coast may bring another chance of storms
to the area... will continue low pops.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 301111
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with abundant mid and high clouds. Light northerly wind this
morning will veer around to the SE during the afternoon as leeside
trough deepens.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a
A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja
overnight.  Shortwaves from this low will move into the area Tuesday
bringing the possibility of storms.  After that a flat ridge builds
across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work
week.  By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area
from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.

A weak front moved through Sunday.  Will start off the day with a NE
wind but this will veer around to the SE by afternoon as a leeside
trough deepens.  Temperatures will be a little cooler today than
past several days but guidance not as cool as previous runs.  Highs
will be in the 70s and 80s today.  Temps begin to climb again
Tuesday with upper 80s returning Wednesday and Thursday.  A front on
Friday will knock highs back into the 70s with even cooler readings
on Saturday.

Would like to say models are in agreement as to rain chances but ETA
is much wetter than GFS with ECM some where in between.  The Eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will have best chance of seeing
storms Tuesday.  Storms will mainly be during the afternoon as a weak
dryline develops and combines with upper support... but models are
also developing rain farther to the west.  Look to have decent but
not great low level moisture with dewpts into the 50s for the east.
Current forecast has highest pops in the east and this looks on
track so left as is.  Did raise pops a little back to the west.  Some
of these storms could be strong to severe and will continue to
highlight in HWO.  If models come more into agreement could see pops
increase or decrease for Tuesday.  By next weekend the next upper
trough coming off the west coast may bring another chance of storms
to the area... will continue low pops.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 301111
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
611 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with abundant mid and high clouds. Light northerly wind this
morning will veer around to the SE during the afternoon as leeside
trough deepens.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a
A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja
overnight.  Shortwaves from this low will move into the area Tuesday
bringing the possibility of storms.  After that a flat ridge builds
across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work
week.  By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area
from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.

A weak front moved through Sunday.  Will start off the day with a NE
wind but this will veer around to the SE by afternoon as a leeside
trough deepens.  Temperatures will be a little cooler today than
past several days but guidance not as cool as previous runs.  Highs
will be in the 70s and 80s today.  Temps begin to climb again
Tuesday with upper 80s returning Wednesday and Thursday.  A front on
Friday will knock highs back into the 70s with even cooler readings
on Saturday.

Would like to say models are in agreement as to rain chances but ETA
is much wetter than GFS with ECM some where in between.  The Eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will have best chance of seeing
storms Tuesday.  Storms will mainly be during the afternoon as a weak
dryline develops and combines with upper support... but models are
also developing rain farther to the west.  Look to have decent but
not great low level moisture with dewpts into the 50s for the east.
Current forecast has highest pops in the east and this looks on
track so left as is.  Did raise pops a little back to the west.  Some
of these storms could be strong to severe and will continue to
highlight in HWO.  If models come more into agreement could see pops
increase or decrease for Tuesday.  By next weekend the next upper
trough coming off the west coast may bring another chance of storms
to the area... will continue low pops.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 300832
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a
A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja
overnight.  Shortwaves from this low will move into the area Tuesday
bringing the possibility of storms.  After that a flat ridge builds
across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work
week.  By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area
from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.

A weak front moved through Sunday.  Will start off the day with a NE
wind but this will veer around to the SE by afternoon as a leeside
trough deepens.  Temperatures will be a little cooler today than
past several days but guidance not as cool as previous runs.  Highs
will be in the 70s and 80s today.  Temps begin to climb again
Tuesday with upper 80s returning Wednesday and Thursday.  A front on
Friday will knock highs back into the 70s with even cooler readings
on Saturday.

Would like to say models are in agreement as to rain chances but ETA
is much wetter than GFS with ECM some where in between.  The Eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will have best chance of seeing
storms Tuesday.  Storms will mainly be during the afternoon as a weak
dryline develops and combines with upper support... but models are
also developing rain farther to the west.  Look to have decent but
not great low level moisture with dewpts into the 50s for the east.
Current forecast has highest pops in the east and this looks on
track so left as is.  Did raise pops a little back to the west.  Some
of these storms could be strong to severe and will continue to
highlight in HWO.  If models come more into agreement could see pops
increase or decrease for Tuesday.  By next weekend the next upper
trough coming off the west coast may bring another chance of storms
to the area... will continue low pops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  56  83  54  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              83  60  86  58  /   0  10  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                80  53  84  52  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  61  84  61  /   0  10  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  60  86  59  /   0  10  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  55  77  50  /   0  10  20  10
HOBBS NM                   77  53  83  52  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   82  45  77  42  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  58  84  55  /   0  10  30  20
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  56  /   0  10  30  20
WINK TX                    82  54  87  52  /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/72

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http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 300832
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a
A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja
overnight.  Shortwaves from this low will move into the area Tuesday
bringing the possibility of storms.  After that a flat ridge builds
across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work
week.  By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area
from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.

A weak front moved through Sunday.  Will start off the day with a NE
wind but this will veer around to the SE by afternoon as a leeside
trough deepens.  Temperatures will be a little cooler today than
past several days but guidance not as cool as previous runs.  Highs
will be in the 70s and 80s today.  Temps begin to climb again
Tuesday with upper 80s returning Wednesday and Thursday.  A front on
Friday will knock highs back into the 70s with even cooler readings
on Saturday.

Would like to say models are in agreement as to rain chances but ETA
is much wetter than GFS with ECM some where in between.  The Eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will have best chance of seeing
storms Tuesday.  Storms will mainly be during the afternoon as a weak
dryline develops and combines with upper support... but models are
also developing rain farther to the west.  Look to have decent but
not great low level moisture with dewpts into the 50s for the east.
Current forecast has highest pops in the east and this looks on
track so left as is.  Did raise pops a little back to the west.  Some
of these storms could be strong to severe and will continue to
highlight in HWO.  If models come more into agreement could see pops
increase or decrease for Tuesday.  By next weekend the next upper
trough coming off the west coast may bring another chance of storms
to the area... will continue low pops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  56  83  54  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              83  60  86  58  /   0  10  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                80  53  84  52  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  61  84  61  /   0  10  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  60  86  59  /   0  10  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  55  77  50  /   0  10  20  10
HOBBS NM                   77  53  83  52  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   82  45  77  42  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  58  84  55  /   0  10  30  20
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  56  /   0  10  30  20
WINK TX                    82  54  87  52  /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/72

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http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 300832
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
332 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Will go into brief ridging aloft but main feature of interest is a
A cut off low south of CA this morning will move across Baja
overnight.  Shortwaves from this low will move into the area Tuesday
bringing the possibility of storms.  After that a flat ridge builds
across the area with mild and warm wx through the end of the work
week.  By the weekend another upper trough may approach the area
from the west with rain chances returning to the forecast.

A weak front moved through Sunday.  Will start off the day with a NE
wind but this will veer around to the SE by afternoon as a leeside
trough deepens.  Temperatures will be a little cooler today than
past several days but guidance not as cool as previous runs.  Highs
will be in the 70s and 80s today.  Temps begin to climb again
Tuesday with upper 80s returning Wednesday and Thursday.  A front on
Friday will knock highs back into the 70s with even cooler readings
on Saturday.

Would like to say models are in agreement as to rain chances but ETA
is much wetter than GFS with ECM some where in between.  The Eastern
Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos will have best chance of seeing
storms Tuesday.  Storms will mainly be during the afternoon as a weak
dryline develops and combines with upper support... but models are
also developing rain farther to the west.  Look to have decent but
not great low level moisture with dewpts into the 50s for the east.
Current forecast has highest pops in the east and this looks on
track so left as is.  Did raise pops a little back to the west.  Some
of these storms could be strong to severe and will continue to
highlight in HWO.  If models come more into agreement could see pops
increase or decrease for Tuesday.  By next weekend the next upper
trough coming off the west coast may bring another chance of storms
to the area... will continue low pops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  56  83  54  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              83  60  86  58  /   0  10  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                80  53  84  52  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  84  61  84  61  /   0  10  40  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           82  60  86  59  /   0  10  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  55  77  50  /   0  10  20  10
HOBBS NM                   77  53  83  52  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   82  45  77  42  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  58  84  55  /   0  10  30  20
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  56  /   0  10  30  20
WINK TX                    82  54  87  52  /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 300445
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1145 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hour, VFR conditions will
persist at all terminals. Currently have NE winds diminishing and
veering to the east at most sites at the cold front continues to
push south further away from terminals. Expect light SE winds and
increasing high clouds throughout the day Monday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Another fine afternoon has evolved across West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, w/KMAF ASOS currently reading 90F, more representative
of late May than late March.  Sfc analysis shows the cold front has
barely dipped into the nrn-tiered zones, w/the colder air lagging
back in the South Plains.  Diurnal heating has slowed southward
progression, and things probably won`t move much until after peak
heating.  Latest buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 23Z.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge still to the west, but much
flatter/dampened than 24 hrs ago, yielding zonal flow aloft at the
moment.

Cold front will move thru overnight, and bring temps closer to
normal Monday.  The closed low off the Baja coast will nudge the
ridge into central Texas by 00Z Tuesday, putting West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Tuesday, the trough is forecast to shear out
and move thru the area, sharpening up a weak dryline out west early,
and pushing it through the east during the afternoon.  Best
instability will be confined along the ern-tiered zones, w/forecast
soundings yielding sbcapes in excess of 2500 J/kg in the ern Permian
Basin.  Deep-lyr shear continues to look minimal, but mid-lvl LR`s
in excess of 7C/km and favorable wet-bulb zero heights will proffer
a hail threat.  Also, w/dry sublayers to H7 or so, can`t rule out a
wind threat, either.  We`ll mention this in the HWO, but leave it
out of the grids for now, as the GFS/ECMWF are not as bullish as the
NAM.

Wednesday, w/the trough having scoured moisture east, attention
turns to fire wx.  The region will be under zonal flow aloft and on
a warming trend.  Forecast soundings for Wednesday afternoon mix to
above H7, which will bring 20-25kt westerly flow to the sfc out
west, where 10-15 pct RH`s are forecast.  Conditions look even more
favorable Thursday, w/warmer temps forecast, and a trough to the
north mixing stronger winds down.  Friday, a cold front will cool
things down a notch, then bring even cooler temps and a chance of
convection to the area over the weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 300445
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1145 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hour, VFR conditions will
persist at all terminals. Currently have NE winds diminishing and
veering to the east at most sites at the cold front continues to
push south further away from terminals. Expect light SE winds and
increasing high clouds throughout the day Monday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Another fine afternoon has evolved across West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, w/KMAF ASOS currently reading 90F, more representative
of late May than late March.  Sfc analysis shows the cold front has
barely dipped into the nrn-tiered zones, w/the colder air lagging
back in the South Plains.  Diurnal heating has slowed southward
progression, and things probably won`t move much until after peak
heating.  Latest buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 23Z.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge still to the west, but much
flatter/dampened than 24 hrs ago, yielding zonal flow aloft at the
moment.

Cold front will move thru overnight, and bring temps closer to
normal Monday.  The closed low off the Baja coast will nudge the
ridge into central Texas by 00Z Tuesday, putting West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Tuesday, the trough is forecast to shear out
and move thru the area, sharpening up a weak dryline out west early,
and pushing it through the east during the afternoon.  Best
instability will be confined along the ern-tiered zones, w/forecast
soundings yielding sbcapes in excess of 2500 J/kg in the ern Permian
Basin.  Deep-lyr shear continues to look minimal, but mid-lvl LR`s
in excess of 7C/km and favorable wet-bulb zero heights will proffer
a hail threat.  Also, w/dry sublayers to H7 or so, can`t rule out a
wind threat, either.  We`ll mention this in the HWO, but leave it
out of the grids for now, as the GFS/ECMWF are not as bullish as the
NAM.

Wednesday, w/the trough having scoured moisture east, attention
turns to fire wx.  The region will be under zonal flow aloft and on
a warming trend.  Forecast soundings for Wednesday afternoon mix to
above H7, which will bring 20-25kt westerly flow to the sfc out
west, where 10-15 pct RH`s are forecast.  Conditions look even more
favorable Thursday, w/warmer temps forecast, and a trough to the
north mixing stronger winds down.  Friday, a cold front will cool
things down a notch, then bring even cooler temps and a chance of
convection to the area over the weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 292310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with light northeast winds becoming southeasterly through the
TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Another fine afternoon has evolved across West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, w/KMAF ASOS currently reading 90F, more representative
of late May than late March.  Sfc analysis shows the cold front has
barely dipped into the nrn-tiered zones, w/the colder air lagging
back in the South Plains.  Diurnal heating has slowed southward
progression, and things probably won`t move much until after peak
heating.  Latest buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 23Z.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge still to the west, but much
flatter/dampened than 24 hrs ago, yielding zonal flow aloft at the
moment.

Cold front will move thru overnight, and bring temps closer to
normal Monday.  The closed low off the Baja coast will nudge the
ridge into central Texas by 00Z Tuesday, putting West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Tuesday, the trough is forecast to shear out
and move thru the area, sharpening up a weak dryline out west early,
and pushing it through the east during the afternoon.  Best
instability will be confined along the ern-tiered zones, w/forecast
soundings yielding sbcapes in excess of 2500 J/kg in the ern Permian
Basin.  Deep-lyr shear continues to look minimal, but mid-lvl LR`s
in excess of 7C/km and favorable wet-bulb zero heights will proffer
a hail threat.  Also, w/dry sublayers to H7 or so, can`t rule out a
wind threat, either.  We`ll mention this in the HWO, but leave it
out of the grids for now, as the GFS/ECMWF are not as bullish as the
NAM.

Wednesday, w/the trough having scoured moisture east, attention
turns to fire wx.  The region will be under zonal flow aloft and on
a warming trend.  Forecast soundings for Wednesday afternoon mix to
above H7, which will bring 20-25kt westerly flow to the sfc out
west, where 10-15 pct RH`s are forecast.  Conditions look even more
favorable Thursday, w/warmer temps forecast, and a trough to the
north mixing stronger winds down.  Friday, a cold front will cool
things down a notch, then bring even cooler temps and a chance of
convection to the area over the weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 292310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with light northeast winds becoming southeasterly through the
TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Another fine afternoon has evolved across West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, w/KMAF ASOS currently reading 90F, more representative
of late May than late March.  Sfc analysis shows the cold front has
barely dipped into the nrn-tiered zones, w/the colder air lagging
back in the South Plains.  Diurnal heating has slowed southward
progression, and things probably won`t move much until after peak
heating.  Latest buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 23Z.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge still to the west, but much
flatter/dampened than 24 hrs ago, yielding zonal flow aloft at the
moment.

Cold front will move thru overnight, and bring temps closer to
normal Monday.  The closed low off the Baja coast will nudge the
ridge into central Texas by 00Z Tuesday, putting West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Tuesday, the trough is forecast to shear out
and move thru the area, sharpening up a weak dryline out west early,
and pushing it through the east during the afternoon.  Best
instability will be confined along the ern-tiered zones, w/forecast
soundings yielding sbcapes in excess of 2500 J/kg in the ern Permian
Basin.  Deep-lyr shear continues to look minimal, but mid-lvl LR`s
in excess of 7C/km and favorable wet-bulb zero heights will proffer
a hail threat.  Also, w/dry sublayers to H7 or so, can`t rule out a
wind threat, either.  We`ll mention this in the HWO, but leave it
out of the grids for now, as the GFS/ECMWF are not as bullish as the
NAM.

Wednesday, w/the trough having scoured moisture east, attention
turns to fire wx.  The region will be under zonal flow aloft and on
a warming trend.  Forecast soundings for Wednesday afternoon mix to
above H7, which will bring 20-25kt westerly flow to the sfc out
west, where 10-15 pct RH`s are forecast.  Conditions look even more
favorable Thursday, w/warmer temps forecast, and a trough to the
north mixing stronger winds down.  Friday, a cold front will cool
things down a notch, then bring even cooler temps and a chance of
convection to the area over the weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 292310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with light northeast winds becoming southeasterly through the
TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Another fine afternoon has evolved across West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, w/KMAF ASOS currently reading 90F, more representative
of late May than late March.  Sfc analysis shows the cold front has
barely dipped into the nrn-tiered zones, w/the colder air lagging
back in the South Plains.  Diurnal heating has slowed southward
progression, and things probably won`t move much until after peak
heating.  Latest buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 23Z.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge still to the west, but much
flatter/dampened than 24 hrs ago, yielding zonal flow aloft at the
moment.

Cold front will move thru overnight, and bring temps closer to
normal Monday.  The closed low off the Baja coast will nudge the
ridge into central Texas by 00Z Tuesday, putting West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Tuesday, the trough is forecast to shear out
and move thru the area, sharpening up a weak dryline out west early,
and pushing it through the east during the afternoon.  Best
instability will be confined along the ern-tiered zones, w/forecast
soundings yielding sbcapes in excess of 2500 J/kg in the ern Permian
Basin.  Deep-lyr shear continues to look minimal, but mid-lvl LR`s
in excess of 7C/km and favorable wet-bulb zero heights will proffer
a hail threat.  Also, w/dry sublayers to H7 or so, can`t rule out a
wind threat, either.  We`ll mention this in the HWO, but leave it
out of the grids for now, as the GFS/ECMWF are not as bullish as the
NAM.

Wednesday, w/the trough having scoured moisture east, attention
turns to fire wx.  The region will be under zonal flow aloft and on
a warming trend.  Forecast soundings for Wednesday afternoon mix to
above H7, which will bring 20-25kt westerly flow to the sfc out
west, where 10-15 pct RH`s are forecast.  Conditions look even more
favorable Thursday, w/warmer temps forecast, and a trough to the
north mixing stronger winds down.  Friday, a cold front will cool
things down a notch, then bring even cooler temps and a chance of
convection to the area over the weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 292310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with light northeast winds becoming southeasterly through the
TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Another fine afternoon has evolved across West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, w/KMAF ASOS currently reading 90F, more representative
of late May than late March.  Sfc analysis shows the cold front has
barely dipped into the nrn-tiered zones, w/the colder air lagging
back in the South Plains.  Diurnal heating has slowed southward
progression, and things probably won`t move much until after peak
heating.  Latest buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 23Z.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge still to the west, but much
flatter/dampened than 24 hrs ago, yielding zonal flow aloft at the
moment.

Cold front will move thru overnight, and bring temps closer to
normal Monday.  The closed low off the Baja coast will nudge the
ridge into central Texas by 00Z Tuesday, putting West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Tuesday, the trough is forecast to shear out
and move thru the area, sharpening up a weak dryline out west early,
and pushing it through the east during the afternoon.  Best
instability will be confined along the ern-tiered zones, w/forecast
soundings yielding sbcapes in excess of 2500 J/kg in the ern Permian
Basin.  Deep-lyr shear continues to look minimal, but mid-lvl LR`s
in excess of 7C/km and favorable wet-bulb zero heights will proffer
a hail threat.  Also, w/dry sublayers to H7 or so, can`t rule out a
wind threat, either.  We`ll mention this in the HWO, but leave it
out of the grids for now, as the GFS/ECMWF are not as bullish as the
NAM.

Wednesday, w/the trough having scoured moisture east, attention
turns to fire wx.  The region will be under zonal flow aloft and on
a warming trend.  Forecast soundings for Wednesday afternoon mix to
above H7, which will bring 20-25kt westerly flow to the sfc out
west, where 10-15 pct RH`s are forecast.  Conditions look even more
favorable Thursday, w/warmer temps forecast, and a trough to the
north mixing stronger winds down.  Friday, a cold front will cool
things down a notch, then bring even cooler temps and a chance of
convection to the area over the weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291945
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Another fine afternoon has evolved across West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, w/KMAF ASOS currently reading 90F, more representative
of late May than late March.  Sfc analysis shows the cold front has
barely dipped into the nrn-tiered zones, w/the colder air lagging
back in the South Plains.  Diurnal heating has slowed southward
progression, and things probably won`t move much until after peak
heating.  Latest buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 23Z.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge still to the west, but much
flatter/dampened than 24 hrs ago, yielding zonal flow aloft at the
moment.

Cold front will move thru overnight, and bring temps closer to
normal Monday.  The closed low off the Baja coast will nudge the
ridge into central Texas by 00Z Tuesday, putting West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Tuesday, the trough is forecast to shear out
and move thru the area, sharpening up a weak dryline out west early,
and pushing it through the east during the afternoon.  Best
instability will be confined along the ern-tiered zones, w/forecast
soundings yielding sbcapes in excess of 2500 J/kg in the ern Permian
Basin.  Deep-lyr shear continues to look minimal, but mid-lvl LR`s
in excess of 7C/km and favorable wet-bulb zero heights will proffer
a hail threat.  Also, w/dry sublayers to H7 or so, can`t rule out a
wind threat, either.  We`ll mention this in the HWO, but leave it
out of the grids for now, as the GFS/ECMWF are not as bullish as the
NAM.

Wednesday, w/the trough having scoured moisture east, attention
turns to fire wx.  The region will be under zonal flow aloft and on
a warming trend.  Forecast soundings for Wednesday afternoon mix to
above H7, which will bring 20-25kt westerly flow to the sfc out
west, where 10-15 pct RH`s are forecast.  Conditions look even more
favorable Thursday, w/warmer temps forecast, and a trough to the
north mixing stronger winds down.  Friday, a cold front will cool
things down a notch, then bring even cooler temps and a chance of
convection to the area over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 47  78  55  83  /   0   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              52  80  59  84  /   0   0  10  40
CARLSBAD NM                49  77  54  83  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  56  74  59  83  /   0   0  10  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  78  63  83  /   0   0  10  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          48  75  54  76  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   45  74  49  80  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   38  78  45  75  /   0  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    50  78  58  83  /   0   0  10  30
ODESSA TX                  52  78  58  83  /   0   0  10  30
WINK TX                    50  78  54  86  /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291945
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
245 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Another fine afternoon has evolved across West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, w/KMAF ASOS currently reading 90F, more representative
of late May than late March.  Sfc analysis shows the cold front has
barely dipped into the nrn-tiered zones, w/the colder air lagging
back in the South Plains.  Diurnal heating has slowed southward
progression, and things probably won`t move much until after peak
heating.  Latest buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around 23Z.
WV imagery shows the upper ridge still to the west, but much
flatter/dampened than 24 hrs ago, yielding zonal flow aloft at the
moment.

Cold front will move thru overnight, and bring temps closer to
normal Monday.  The closed low off the Baja coast will nudge the
ridge into central Texas by 00Z Tuesday, putting West Texas/SE NM
under SW flow aloft.  Tuesday, the trough is forecast to shear out
and move thru the area, sharpening up a weak dryline out west early,
and pushing it through the east during the afternoon.  Best
instability will be confined along the ern-tiered zones, w/forecast
soundings yielding sbcapes in excess of 2500 J/kg in the ern Permian
Basin.  Deep-lyr shear continues to look minimal, but mid-lvl LR`s
in excess of 7C/km and favorable wet-bulb zero heights will proffer
a hail threat.  Also, w/dry sublayers to H7 or so, can`t rule out a
wind threat, either.  We`ll mention this in the HWO, but leave it
out of the grids for now, as the GFS/ECMWF are not as bullish as the
NAM.

Wednesday, w/the trough having scoured moisture east, attention
turns to fire wx.  The region will be under zonal flow aloft and on
a warming trend.  Forecast soundings for Wednesday afternoon mix to
above H7, which will bring 20-25kt westerly flow to the sfc out
west, where 10-15 pct RH`s are forecast.  Conditions look even more
favorable Thursday, w/warmer temps forecast, and a trough to the
north mixing stronger winds down.  Friday, a cold front will cool
things down a notch, then bring even cooler temps and a chance of
convection to the area over the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 47  78  55  83  /   0   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              52  80  59  84  /   0   0  10  40
CARLSBAD NM                49  77  54  83  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  56  74  59  83  /   0   0  10  40
FORT STOCKTON TX           50  78  63  83  /   0   0  10  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          48  75  54  76  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   45  74  49  80  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   38  78  45  75  /   0  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    50  78  58  83  /   0   0  10  30
ODESSA TX                  52  78  58  83  /   0   0  10  30
WINK TX                    50  78  54  86  /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291821
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
121 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A weak cold front located roughly along an Aspermont TX/Snyder TX/Andrews
TX/Artesia NM line will translate south during the afternoon hours,
eventually reaching the mountains by early evening.  Significant pressure
rises (around 1.5 mb/hr) over the OK and TX panhandles has created a
respectable isallobaric gradient. In spite of strong insolation
limiting already weak low level cold air advection, isallobaric
flow along with deep layer mixing will promote gusty north to
northwest winds behind the front. Localized areas of blowing dust
sourced off plowed South Plains cotton fields is likely. The
presence of wave clouds over the southern Sangre de Christo and
Sandia mountain ranges as well as forecast low to mid level static
stability suggests wind gusts near 30 mph are possible along the
Pecos River valley of southeastern New Mexico.

Latest mesoscale model runs suggest the area of strongest low
level winds will shift southeast, in concert with the southeastern
migration of the surface pressure rises. As a result, there looks
to be a short window where gusty winds will impact the northern
Permian Basin before the PBL decouples around sunset. Winds will
veer overnight and become southeasterly by mid morning. Increasing
upper moisture tapped from the subtropical eastern Pacific will
result in thickening cirriform clouds overnight, with most areas
becoming mostly cloudy around sunrise. Otherwise, sig wx nil.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across area terminals through 30/18Z.
Gusty north to northwest winds are expected this afternoon, with
wind gusts AOA 20 kts at KHOB, KMAF, KCNM, and KINK. Additionally,
moderate turbulence above FL120 is expected just east of the
Guadalupe Mountains. Winds will slack off around sunset and veer
during the overnight hours, becoming southeastery by mid morning
Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291821
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
121 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A weak cold front located roughly along an Aspermont TX/Snyder TX/Andrews
TX/Artesia NM line will translate south during the afternoon hours,
eventually reaching the mountains by early evening.  Significant pressure
rises (around 1.5 mb/hr) over the OK and TX panhandles has created a
respectable isallobaric gradient. In spite of strong insolation
limiting already weak low level cold air advection, isallobaric
flow along with deep layer mixing will promote gusty north to
northwest winds behind the front. Localized areas of blowing dust
sourced off plowed South Plains cotton fields is likely. The
presence of wave clouds over the southern Sangre de Christo and
Sandia mountain ranges as well as forecast low to mid level static
stability suggests wind gusts near 30 mph are possible along the
Pecos River valley of southeastern New Mexico.

Latest mesoscale model runs suggest the area of strongest low
level winds will shift southeast, in concert with the southeastern
migration of the surface pressure rises. As a result, there looks
to be a short window where gusty winds will impact the northern
Permian Basin before the PBL decouples around sunset. Winds will
veer overnight and become southeasterly by mid morning. Increasing
upper moisture tapped from the subtropical eastern Pacific will
result in thickening cirriform clouds overnight, with most areas
becoming mostly cloudy around sunrise. Otherwise, sig wx nil.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across area terminals through 30/18Z.
Gusty north to northwest winds are expected this afternoon, with
wind gusts AOA 20 kts at KHOB, KMAF, KCNM, and KINK. Additionally,
moderate turbulence above FL120 is expected just east of the
Guadalupe Mountains. Winds will slack off around sunset and veer
during the overnight hours, becoming southeastery by mid morning
Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291821
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
121 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A weak cold front located roughly along an Aspermont TX/Snyder TX/Andrews
TX/Artesia NM line will translate south during the afternoon hours,
eventually reaching the mountains by early evening.  Significant pressure
rises (around 1.5 mb/hr) over the OK and TX panhandles has created a
respectable isallobaric gradient. In spite of strong insolation
limiting already weak low level cold air advection, isallobaric
flow along with deep layer mixing will promote gusty north to
northwest winds behind the front. Localized areas of blowing dust
sourced off plowed South Plains cotton fields is likely. The
presence of wave clouds over the southern Sangre de Christo and
Sandia mountain ranges as well as forecast low to mid level static
stability suggests wind gusts near 30 mph are possible along the
Pecos River valley of southeastern New Mexico.

Latest mesoscale model runs suggest the area of strongest low
level winds will shift southeast, in concert with the southeastern
migration of the surface pressure rises. As a result, there looks
to be a short window where gusty winds will impact the northern
Permian Basin before the PBL decouples around sunset. Winds will
veer overnight and become southeasterly by mid morning. Increasing
upper moisture tapped from the subtropical eastern Pacific will
result in thickening cirriform clouds overnight, with most areas
becoming mostly cloudy around sunrise. Otherwise, sig wx nil.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across area terminals through 30/18Z.
Gusty north to northwest winds are expected this afternoon, with
wind gusts AOA 20 kts at KHOB, KMAF, KCNM, and KINK. Additionally,
moderate turbulence above FL120 is expected just east of the
Guadalupe Mountains. Winds will slack off around sunset and veer
during the overnight hours, becoming southeastery by mid morning
Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291821
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
121 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A weak cold front located roughly along an Aspermont TX/Snyder TX/Andrews
TX/Artesia NM line will translate south during the afternoon hours,
eventually reaching the mountains by early evening.  Significant pressure
rises (around 1.5 mb/hr) over the OK and TX panhandles has created a
respectable isallobaric gradient. In spite of strong insolation
limiting already weak low level cold air advection, isallobaric
flow along with deep layer mixing will promote gusty north to
northwest winds behind the front. Localized areas of blowing dust
sourced off plowed South Plains cotton fields is likely. The
presence of wave clouds over the southern Sangre de Christo and
Sandia mountain ranges as well as forecast low to mid level static
stability suggests wind gusts near 30 mph are possible along the
Pecos River valley of southeastern New Mexico.

Latest mesoscale model runs suggest the area of strongest low
level winds will shift southeast, in concert with the southeastern
migration of the surface pressure rises. As a result, there looks
to be a short window where gusty winds will impact the northern
Permian Basin before the PBL decouples around sunset. Winds will
veer overnight and become southeasterly by mid morning. Increasing
upper moisture tapped from the subtropical eastern Pacific will
result in thickening cirriform clouds overnight, with most areas
becoming mostly cloudy around sunrise. Otherwise, sig wx nil.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail across area terminals through 30/18Z.
Gusty north to northwest winds are expected this afternoon, with
wind gusts AOA 20 kts at KHOB, KMAF, KCNM, and KINK. Additionally,
moderate turbulence above FL120 is expected just east of the
Guadalupe Mountains. Winds will slack off around sunset and veer
during the overnight hours, becoming southeastery by mid morning
Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies today. Light wind this morning will come around to the
north during the day as a front moves into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.

Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies today. Light wind this morning will come around to the
north during the day as a front moves into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.

Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies today. Light wind this morning will come around to the
north during the day as a front moves into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.

Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291126
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Clear skies today. Light wind this morning will come around to the
north during the day as a front moves into the area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.

Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 290810
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.

Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 86  47  74  55  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              89  49  77  59  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                87  47  75  51  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  91  56  79  60  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           90  51  76  59  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  50  71  51  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   83  44  73  51  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   83  41  75  50  /   0   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    88  47  76  57  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  87  47  75  58  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    90  50  76  56  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 290810
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
310 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Another beautiful, warm day expected today as upper ridging persists
across the region while slowly marching eastward. A cold front is
still expected to move through the region this evening, possibly
entering northern zones as early as mid afternoon. Current thinking
is that most areas will have plenty of time to warm into the upper
80s if not a few 90s before the front moves through. The only
exception will be across the northern zones where low 80s are
probable. MOS Guidance has been too warm on high temps the last
couple days and think METMOS is still too warm. Will lean more
toward the cooler MAVMOS for today. Monday will be much cooler with
highs generally in the 70s.

Meanwhile, an upper trough will move east from the Pacific, enter
northern Mexico by Monday night and move across the region Tuesday.
Models are a bit slower and weaker with this trough, initially
bringing it across Monday night. Current runs depict main area of
upper lift arriving Tuesday morning and increasing through the
afternoon therefore will go ahead and trim PoPs back a little for
Monday night. At the surface, it looks as though a dryline will set
up across the eastern CWA by Tuesday afternoon with decent low level
moisture and modest instability to the east of this line. Will
continue to highlight best thunderstorm chances across eastern
zones. If everything mentioned above comes together at the right
time, could see large hail being the main threat and we could see
the first severe thunderstorms of the season. Stay tuned for any
updates/changes in future forecast packages.

Beyond Tuesday, zonal flow aloft will develop behind the exiting
upper trough resulting in the return of dry conditions and above
normal temperatures. Another cold front will move through late in
the week leading to the potential for below normal temps next
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 86  47  74  55  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              89  49  77  59  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                87  47  75  51  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  91  56  79  60  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           90  51  76  59  /   0   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  50  71  51  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   83  44  73  51  /   0   0   0  10
MARFA TX                   83  41  75  50  /   0   0  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    88  47  76  57  /   0   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  87  47  75  58  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    90  50  76  56  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 290535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. Light S/SW wind overnight will come around to the
north during the day as a weak front moves through the area.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 290535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. Light S/SW wind overnight will come around to the
north during the day as a weak front moves through the area.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 290535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. Light S/SW wind overnight will come around to the
north during the day as a weak front moves through the area.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 290535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with few clouds. Light S/SW wind overnight will come around to the
north during the day as a weak front moves through the area.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 311 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV imagery shows the upper
ridge has moved east over the past 24 hours, and is roughly aligned
w/the 4 Corners, in response to a trough over the ID Panhandle.
This has resulted in near meridional flow aloft over West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico.  Light westerly downslope winds at the sfc have
resulted in afternoon temperatures well-abv normal, resulting in
widespread critical RH`s, mainly west of the Pecos.

Upper ridge will continue breaking down over the next 24 hrs as the
trough on the U.S./Canada border traverses east.  However,
heights/thicknesses will increase one more day, giving us temps
representative of late May Sunday afternoon.  Cold front is still on
tap to arrive Sunday night, w/buffer soundings putting fropa at KMAF
at around 01Z Monday.  A couple of models are slightly faster but,
given the timing, the thinking here is that the front will stall
diurnally north of here until after peak heating.  Front will knock
temps back down to near or blo normal Monday afternoon.

Meanwhile, a secondary upper trough will make landfall on Baja
Monday afternoon, open, and move thru the region Monday
night/Tuesday.  Return flow by 06Z Tuesday will have pushed 50+ deg
dewpoints well into the ern half of the CWA, leaving a window open
for a chance of convection over the ern half of the FA.  Shear
continues to look lousy w/the trough approach/passage, but forecast
soundings continue to advertise wet-bulb zero heights favorable for
hail.  PWATs of around 1.2" (3 std devs abv normal) will offer the
potential for abundant downpours, as well.

Otherwise, zonal flow aloft follows the trough, w/temps above normal
through the extended.  W/zonal flow aloft and good mixing each day,
opportunities for critical fire wx will arise, especially Thursday,
w/forecast soundings mixing to above H65.  A cold front Friday night
may cool things down Saturday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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