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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251112
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS/VSBY have been in and out of KMAF/KHOB, especially since high
clouds are thinning. These MVFR conditions will dissipate by mid
morning, probably before 15Z has the moisture is still pretty
shallow (~85h). The dryline will push e again today with SW-W
winds of 15-20kts in its wake at the TAFS sites. As dryline
retreats this evening s-se winds will increase at MAF/FST/INK/PEQ.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 419 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the western conus with west southwest
flow aloft over the CWA.  The dryline this afternoon is expected to
be across the Lower Trans Pecos and just east of the Permian Basin.
Thunderstorms will be possible across this area today as well as
across the Davis Mountains and Presidio Valley with a shortwave
approaching this area.  There is expected to be high CAPE values and
good bulk shear and lapse rates across Terrell County and the Lower
Trans Pecos this afternoon but upper lift may be lacking until a
shortwave moves across this area this evening into the overnight
hours.  Severe thunderstorms will be possible across this area
beginning late this afternoon into the overnight hours, and SPC has
this area marked in a slight risk.  Temperatures today are expected
to be similar to yesterday with highs above normal.

The upper trough will be over the Four Corners region on Thursday
with the dryline across the same area as today.  Temperatures on
Thursday are expected to cool to near normal values as a Pacific
front moves into the area.  Thunderstorms will be possible across
the Western Low Rolling Plains, eastern Permian Basin, Lower Trans
Pecos, and southward to the Big Bend area.  The severe parameters
will be good, especially across the Lower Trans Pecos, but the upper
lift will not come until Thursday night.  So storm chances with
possible severe weather will increase Thursday night.

The upper trough will begin moving over the central conus on Friday
with the dryline located to the east of the CWA.  Temperatures on
Friday are expected to be similar to Thursday.  The upper trough
lifts northward over the Northern Plains on Saturday with another
upper trough developing over southern California.  Higher dewpoints
are anticipated over the Lower Trans Pecos and Terrell County on
Saturday so storm chances will mostly remain confined to this area.
The previously mentioned upper trough broadens across the west
allowing upper lift to remain over the region.  The dryline is
expected to be further west on Sunday so storm chances will be
present across most of the area except the far western CWA.
Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal on Sunday due to
the increase in precipitation and cloud cover.  Similar conditions
are expected for Monday and Tuesday except the dryline will be
slightly more east.  Precipitation chances will again increase on
Wednesday with temperatures staying at or slightly below normal.

FIRE WEATHER...

Critical fire wx will continue to be focused across the GDP Mtns
and SE NM thru Thursday. Persistent sw flow aloft favors holding a
very warm (12-13C) mid level thermal ridge at 7h in place, even
moreso today. Soundings show mixing to around 5h, thus steep LRs and
this with mid level dry air does favor the HI of at least briefly
hitting a 6 today. Meanwhile this deep mixed layer has an average
wind about 25kts supporting the windy conditions in the GDP Mtns and
breezy for a few hrs in the SE NM Plains today. Single digit RHs are
a forgone conclusion. More of the same Thur except that winds will
be stronger, mixed layer winds closer to 30kts. However mid level
heights will fall and 7h temps will be noticeably cooler so RH/s
will trend a little higher, especially higher elevations from GDP
Mtns down into the Davis Mtns. Still Thur will be another critical
fire wx day, mainly GDP Mtns/SE NM but could go farther s into Van
Horn area and e into the NW PB. For now we will leave headline as a
watch but RF wx looks to be solid GDP Mtns/SE NM. Critical fire wx
conditions will abate on Fri, warm temps will rapidly return Sat in
the mtns. GFS is mostly the lone model suggesting "some" precip
farther w Sat night and Sun, seems unlikely at this point for the
mtns of the Trans Pecos.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     96  71  92  65 /  10  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       97  59  91  53 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         95  74  92  70 /  20  40  40  40
Fort Stockton                  96  68  94  60 /  20  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 87  58  80  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  60  89  53 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          89  55  85  46 /  20  20  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           98  70  91  64 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                         98  71  91  63 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                           99  65  94  56 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 250516
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1216 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
The dryline has returned as far w as KINK and near KHOB. E of
dryline S-SE winds around 15kts are prevailing and they will do
so thru most of the early morning. MVFR CIGS are expect at KMAF
btwn 11Z-14Z. The dryline will then push e again today with SW-W
winds of 15-20kts in its wake at the TAFS sites.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 700 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Dryline slowly moving back to the west with the wind shifting back
around to the south. Gusts have started to drop off as lower wind
speeds expected for this evening. Low clouds with MVFR cigs
possible at MAF before sunrise... otherwise VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Very warm, dry, and breezy conditions have overspread much of the
area this afternoon as the dryline has been quicker to push to
the east than previous days. Per current observations and radar
imagery, the dryline extends from just west of Tahoka south
through Lamesa, Stanton, and west of Garden City before curving
back to the west through the Stockton Plateau. The expectation is
for the dryline to continue to move east, with the greatest
potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to be
across the Western Low Rolling Plains where instability looks to
be maximized around 4000-4500J/kg ahead of the dryline with 0-6km
shear increasing to around 40kt under difluent flow aloft. While
the strongest storms look to be north of the area, storms that
develop over the Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon and
evening could become strong, with hail, gusty winds, and locally
heavy rainfall the primary threats. Storms that develop are
expected to move to the east, with a weakening trend expected
after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. In addition to
storm concerns today, critical fire weather conditions have
persisted across the Guadalupe Mountains and Southeast New Mexico
Plains, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect through this
evening. Little to no improvement is expected the next few days,
with continued critical conditions expected. Please see the Fire
Weather Discussion below for additional details.

The dryline will retreat westward tonight, with low-level RH progs
indicating a position near the TX/NM state line extending south
into the Big Bend Area by early Wednesday morning. Thus, low
clouds are expected to develop across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos, with well above normal low temperatures in the mid
60s to low 70s east of the dryline due to moisture and cloud
cover. Similar trends are expected on Wednesday with the dryline
quickly pushing east of the area and a low-level thermal ridge
under continued southwesterly flow aloft. Have maintained forecast
high temperatures above the MOS guidance given its continued
under-forecasting of temperatures and over-forecasting of
dewpoints, with highs Wednesday in the 90s to lower 100s. There is
a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Big Bend Area and
Lower Trans Pecos on Wednesday afternoon, with chances increasing
along and south of I-10 on Wednesday night. As the dryline
retreats to the west on Thursday and heights begin to fall ahead
of the advancing trough, thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Despite the dryline
not being as sharp as previous days, strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall through Thursday night.

As the upper trough responsible for the multiple rounds of
thunderstorms finally ejects into the Central Plains at the end of
the week, moisture will briefly be shunted to the east, yielding
dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures Friday and
Saturday. Moisture then begins to return to the region on Sunday,
with dryline thunderstorms possible across the eastern half of the
forecast area from Sunday through at least midweek next week
while western portions of the forecast area remain warm and dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Southwest flow aloft will persist over the region through Thursday
ahead of a slow moving upper level storm system, which will
allow dry air and above normal temperatures to prevail over the
region. In addition, southwesterly winds will be strong enough
each afternoon for critical fire weather conditions in the
Guadalupe Mountains, and at times the SE NM Plains. Even as the
base of the upper storm system passes by on Friday, temperatures
appear warm enough and winds strong enough for more critical fire
weather conditions for at least the Guadalupe Mountains. The
Haines Index will likely be 5 each day, if not 6, especially over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains.

Critical fire weather conditions will ease early this evening over
the southeast New Mexico Plains, and around 25/03Z in the
Guadalupe Mountains. Recovery will be poor tonight in these areas
with good recovery only expected along and east of a Seminole to
Kermit to Big Bend line. Southwest winds will increase to 20 mph
sustained again by Wednesday afternoon over the Guadalupes and SE
NM Plains. Since hot and dry conditions with minimum RH/s of 5 to
10 percent are also expected in these areas, the Fire Weather
Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning from 25/18Z to
26/03Z.

Poor recovery will occur again Wednesday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Pecos to Marfa line, with good recovery to the east.
Since little will change Thursday afternoon, expect critical fire
weather conditions again over the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch from
26/15Z to 27/03Z. Farther east, southwest winds do not appear
strong enough for critical fire weather conditions for several
hours Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     97  72  90  64 /  10  10  20  40
Carlsbad                       97  62  93  56 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                         96  73  93  67 /  20  30  20  40
Fort Stockton                  98  71  94  63 /  10  20  20  30
Guadalupe Pass                 88  59  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  62  89  56 /  10   0  10  10
Marfa                          90  55  86  48 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport          100  71  94  64 /  10  10  10  30
Odessa                         99  71  93  63 /  10  10  10  30
Wink                           99  67  95  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 250000
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
700 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Dryline slowly moving back to the west with the wind shifting back
around to the south. Gusts have started to drop off as lower wind
speeds expected for this evening. Low clouds with MVFR cigs
possible at MAF before sunrise... otherwise VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 239 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Very warm, dry, and breezy conditions have overspread much of the
area this afternoon as the dryline has been quicker to push to
the east than previous days. Per current observations and radar
imagery, the dryline extends from just west of Tahoka south
through Lamesa, Stanton, and west of Garden City before curving
back to the west through the Stockton Plateau. The expectation is
for the dryline to continue to move east, with the greatest
potential for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening to be
across the Western Low Rolling Plains where instability looks to
be maximized around 4000-4500J/kg ahead of the dryline with 0-6km
shear increasing to around 40kt under difluent flow aloft. While
the strongest storms look to be north of the area, storms that
develop over the Western Low Rolling Plains this afternoon and
evening could become strong, with hail, gusty winds, and locally
heavy rainfall the primary threats. Storms that develop are
expected to move to the east, with a weakening trend expected
after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating. In addition to
storm concerns today, critical fire weather conditions have
persisted across the Guadalupe Mountains and Southeast New Mexico
Plains, where a Red Flag Warning is in effect through this
evening. Little to no improvement is expected the next few days,
with continued critical conditions expected. Please see the Fire
Weather Discussion below for additional details.

The dryline will retreat westward tonight, with low-level RH progs
indicating a position near the TX/NM state line extending south
into the Big Bend Area by early Wednesday morning. Thus, low
clouds are expected to develop across the Permian Basin and Lower
Trans Pecos, with well above normal low temperatures in the mid
60s to low 70s east of the dryline due to moisture and cloud
cover. Similar trends are expected on Wednesday with the dryline
quickly pushing east of the area and a low-level thermal ridge
under continued southwesterly flow aloft. Have maintained forecast
high temperatures above the MOS guidance given its continued
under-forecasting of temperatures and over-forecasting of
dewpoints, with highs Wednesday in the 90s to lower 100s. There is
a slight chance of thunderstorms across the Big Bend Area and
Lower Trans Pecos on Wednesday afternoon, with chances increasing
along and south of I-10 on Wednesday night. As the dryline
retreats to the west on Thursday and heights begin to fall ahead
of the advancing trough, thunderstorms will be possible across the
eastern Permian Basin and Lower Trans Pecos. Despite the dryline
not being as sharp as previous days, strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, capable of producing large hail,
damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall through Thursday night.

As the upper trough responsible for the multiple rounds of
thunderstorms finally ejects into the Central Plains at the end of
the week, moisture will briefly be shunted to the east, yielding
dry conditions and slightly cooler temperatures Friday and
Saturday. Moisture then begins to return to the region on Sunday,
with dryline thunderstorms possible across the eastern half of the
forecast area from Sunday through at least midweek next week
while western portions of the forecast area remain warm and dry.

FIRE WEATHER...

Southwest flow aloft will persist over the region through Thursday
ahead of a slow moving upper level storm system, which will
allow dry air and above normal temperatures to prevail over the
region. In addition, southwesterly winds will be strong enough
each afternoon for critical fire weather conditions in the
Guadalupe Mountains, and at times the SE NM Plains. Even as the
base of the upper storm system passes by on Friday, temperatures
appear warm enough and winds strong enough for more critical fire
weather conditions for at least the Guadalupe Mountains. The
Haines Index will likely be 5 each day, if not 6, especially over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains.

Critical fire weather conditions will ease early this evening over
the southeast New Mexico Plains, and around 25/03Z in the
Guadalupe Mountains. Recovery will be poor tonight in these areas
with good recovery only expected along and east of a Seminole to
Kermit to Big Bend line. Southwest winds will increase to 20 mph
sustained again by Wednesday afternoon over the Guadalupes and SE
NM Plains. Since hot and dry conditions with minimum RH/s of 5 to
10 percent are also expected in these areas, the Fire Weather
Watch has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning from 25/18Z to
26/03Z.

Poor recovery will occur again Wednesday night along and west of a
Hobbs to Pecos to Marfa line, with good recovery to the east.
Since little will change Thursday afternoon, expect critical fire
weather conditions again over the Guadalupe Mountains and
southeast New Mexico Plains. Will issue a Fire Weather Watch from
26/15Z to 27/03Z. Farther east, southwest winds do not appear
strong enough for critical fire weather conditions for several
hours Thursday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     71  97  72  90 /  10  10  10  20
Carlsbad                       60  97  62  93 /   0   0   0  10
Dryden                         72  96  73  93 /  10  20  30  20
Fort Stockton                  68  98  71  94 /  10  10  20  20
Guadalupe Pass                 58  88  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          59  95  62  89 /  10  10   0  10
Marfa                          52  90  55  86 /   0  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           71 100  71  94 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         70  99  71  93 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                           63  99  67  95 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Guadalupe
     Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
     MDT/ Wednesday for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 241121
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
621 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Low ceilings will continue spreading and impacting the area
through around 15z. Winds will gradually turn towards the
southwest later this morning and become elevated and gusty before
weakening this evening. High clouds are expected to continue to
move across the area today.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Dryline has retreated into the wrn CWFA and is seen quite well on
the IR satellite imagery. it will reside in the western CWFA only
this morning and by 18Z it will e of or near a Lamesa...Midland...
Big Bend Line. A prominent low level thermal ridge will reside
just in wake of the dryline where it will be hot again. There
were several 100-102 readings and 109-111 at Rio Grande Village
yesterday and expect that will again be the case today. MOS looks
to be have a cool bias of late and todays highs will likely be
warmer than MOS. Not sure how MOS is coming up dwpnts so high w of
the dryline either. This will generally be the trend for Wed too,
maybe even moreso since the mid level flow will probably be more
veered. Dryline will hang up across the far south as it likes to
do. CINH does show some signs of weakening across the far Lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon and storms would be severe if they
develop. Elsewhere convective initiation will be hard to come by
thru Wed PM. ATTP will opt to downplay storms this morning and Wed
AM, despite GFS` higher PoPs. Storms are more likely Thur across
the PB/Trans Pecos with the dryline farther w and mid level height
falls. A weak Pacific front late Thur night or Fri AM along with a
75-80kt 3h speed max may be sufficient for nocturnal tstms, but
dry air will encompass all of the CWFA Fri PM. A few dryline
storms may return Sat/Sun PM, but moreso on Sun when there is more
likely to be a 3h jet max to the s. Otherwise there is some
cooling from Thur onward but still repetitively hot/dry across
the wrn half of the CWFA.

FIRE WEATHER...
Winds across the area are expected to be elevated and gusty out
of the southwest with winds of at least 20 mph across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of southeast New Mexico where the
atmosphere is in an very dry and unstable state, Haines Indices of
5-6. The southwest winds will contribute to compressional warming
with high temperatures about 10 degrees above normal. Minimum RH
values this afternoon will be 15 percent or below along and to the
west of a line from around Lamesa to Midland to Fort Stockton.
Many places along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos will
experience minimum RH values in the single digits. Due to these
conditions, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon
and early this evening for the Guadalupe Mountains and the
southeast New Mexico plains. Critical fire weather will remain
possible for Wednesday with similar conditions expected as on
Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch has therefore been issued for the
same area for Wednesday afternoon through early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  70  93  70 /  10  10  10  10
Carlsbad                      100  61  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         96  73  94  71 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  99  69  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  60  97  61 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          88  56  90  57 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                          100  63 100  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

99/99/





000
FXUS64 KMAF 240818
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
318 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Dryline has retreated into the wrn CWFA and is seen quite well on
the IR satellite imagery. it will reside in the western CWFA only
this morning and by 18Z it will e of or near a Lamesa...Midland...
Big Bend Line. A prominent low level thermal ridge will reside
just in wake of the dryline where it will be hot again. There
were several 100-102 readings and 109-111 at Rio Grande Village
yesterday and expect that will again be the case today. MOS looks
to be have a cool bias of late and todays highs will likely be
warmer than MOS. Not sure how MOS is coming up dwpnts so high w of
the dryline either. This will generally be the trend for Wed too,
maybe even moreso since the mid level flow will probably be more
veered. Dryline will hang up across the far south as it likes to
do. CINH does show some signs of weakening across the far Lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon and storms would be severe if they
develop. Elsewhere convective initiation will be hard to come by
thru Wed PM. ATTP will opt to downplay storms this morning and Wed
AM, despite GFS` higher PoPs. Storms are more likely Thur across
the PB/Trans Pecos with the dryline farther w and mid level height
falls. A weak Pacific front late Thur night or Fri AM along with a
75-80kt 3h speed max may be sufficient for nocturnal tstms, but
dry air will encompass all of the CWFA Fri PM. A few dryline
storms may return Sat/Sun PM, but moreso on Sun when there is more
likely to be a 3h jet max to the s. Otherwise there is some
cooling from Thur onward but still repetitively hot/dry across
the wrn half of the CWFA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds across the area are expected to be elevated and gusty out
of the southwest with winds of at least 20 mph across the Guadalupe
Mountains and portions of southeast New Mexico where the
atmosphere is in an very dry and unstable state, Haines Indices of
5-6. The southwest winds will contribute to compressional warming
with high temperatures about 10 degrees above normal. Minimum RH
values this afternoon will be 15 percent or below along and to the
west of a line from around Lamesa to Midland to Fort Stockton.
Many places along and west of the Upper Trans Pecos will
experience minimum RH values in the single digits. Due to these
conditions, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon
and early this evening for the Guadalupe Mountains and the
southeast New Mexico plains. Critical fire weather will remain
possible for Wednesday with similar conditions expected as on
Tuesday. A Fire Weather Watch has therefore been issued for the
same area for Wednesday afternoon through early evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  70  93  70 /  20  10  10  10
Carlsbad                      100  61  97  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         96  73  94  71 /  20  20  10  20
Fort Stockton                  99  69  97  69 /  10  10  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 87  60  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          95  60  97  61 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          88  56  90  57 /   0   0  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
Odessa                         99  70  98  71 /  10  10  10  10
Wink                          100  63 100  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 231119
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
619 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance.

MVFR stratus affecting HOB and MAF early this morning while all
other terminals remain VFR. Low cigs will lift/scatter around mid
morning with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter. Gusty SW winds
return to HOB, CNM and INK this afternoon as the dryline makes
another run east through the region. Elsewhere, gusty S/SE winds can
be expected. Thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and
evening however due to uncertainty regarding exact timing/location
of convective initiation, will not include mention in the TAFs at
this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A large upper low has crossed this morning into Canada but a trough
extends SW back to the Pacific coast.  This trough will dig
southward moving to the 4 corners region by early Thursday. As it
swings across the Panhandle and lifts NE another upper low will move
down across the NW. This will continue the active pattern for the
region with severe wx possible again today.

Little change in the overall pattern with storms expected over the
east again today as dryline once again expected to be focus for
convection.  Have some patchy low clouds this morning moving up from
the SE and some high clouds spreading in from the west.  A surface
trough extending down across the area will help sharpen the dryline
and steady southerly flow east of the dryline will keep dewpts high.
Dewpts at 08z range from 27 in the west to 73 in the east.

Severe storms will be possible today... supercells with very
large hail... damaging wind... and a few tornadoes.  Latest SWODY1
for today has kept a slight risk along and east of a Seminole to
Marathon line but has added enhanced wording along and east of a
Lamesa to Fort Stockton due to high CAPE... improved shear... and
the expected arrival of a shortwave.  Have increased pops today and
tonight for Pecos Co. as multiple models develop qpf blowing up there...
could see a return of the Pecos Co. supercell.  Highest pops next
24hrs only in the 30-40 range just because not expecting that much
coverage... but fairly confident the storms will develop.  Day2
only catches the NE Permian Basin in the slight risk.  In the
extended mainly low pops continue with storm chances increasing
next weekend.

Temps at MAF briefly shot up yesterday afternoon as the dryline
mixed east before quickly retreating.  High at MAF yesterday reached
98 degrees... one of the hottest places in the state.  Will go above
guidance temps again today and lows will remain on the high side.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy conditions expected across western portions of the
region once again today as a dryline pushes east through the
afternoon. Minimum relative humidity will quickly drop below 15
percent across SE NM south through the Davis Mountains and Big Bend
regions. Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop
across the Guadalupe Mountains where westerly winds will increase to
25-30 mph sustained. As a result, the Fire Weather Watch has been
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for this area for the afternoon and
evening hours. Critical fire weather conditions are expected once
again Tuesday across the Guadalupe Mountains as well as the
southeast New Mexico plains and a Fire Weather Watch is now in
effect for these areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     92  72  93  70 /  30  30  20  20
Carlsbad                       97  59  94  60 /  10  10  10  10
Dryden                         93  72  96  74 /  20  30  10  10
Fort Stockton                  95  66  94  66 /  20  20  10  10
Guadalupe Pass                 88  60  86  58 /  10  10  10  10
Hobbs                          93  61  92  60 /  10  10  10  10
Marfa                          88  50  85  52 /  10  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport           96  74  97  70 /  20  20  10  10
Odessa                         95  70  95  69 /  20  20  10  10
Wink                           97  65  98  63 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains-Southeast Plains.

TX...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ this afternoon to 10
     PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72





000
FXUS64 KMAF 230534
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1234 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance.

VFR conditions across all area terminals tonight however low stratus
can be seen on satellite developing from the SE. Expect MVFR cigs to
affect MAF, HOB and potentially INK through mid morning, at which
point low cigs will scatter/lift. Otherwise, elevated wind speeds
will continue at MAF and FST for the next few hours then diminish by
09 or 10Z. Gusty SW winds return to HOB, CNM and INK as the dryline
makes another run east through the region Monday afternoon.
Elsewhere, gusty S/SE winds can be expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 255 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows that the upper ridge has shifted east in response
to the PacNW trough ejecting NE into Alberta.  As a result, West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico now sit under SW flow aloft on the
backside of the ridge.  At the sfc, mesoanalysis shows the
dryline extending from NW Lea County to eastern Pecos County, and
curving back west into the Big Bend Area.  East of this feature,
instability has been increasing over the past few hours, w/a ridge
of 5000+J/kg capes running N-S.  Moisture convergence is on the
increase as well, and convection should begin shortly. Along this
axis of instability, mid-lvl LRs are 7C/km or higher, and forecast
to increase into the overnight hours.  Deep lyr (0-6km) shear is
also forecast to increase to 50-55 kts east of the dryline this
evening. Wet-bulb zero heights are in the 9-10kft range, so large
hail remains a threat. Sounding profiles again show dcapes in excess
of 1000 J/kg, so damaging winds will be possible as well. Even a
tornado can`t be ruled out, as 0-3km helicities increase notably
just east of the dryline into the evening hours. Finally, models
develops a 40-45kt LLJ to keep things going at least into into late
evening. Monday afternoon looks just as bad, if not worse than
today, although forecast higher helicities will be a bit further
west than today`s. Nevertheless, we`ve mentioned svr wx in the grids
for both today and Monday, w/a mention of tornadoes in the HWO. West
of the dryline, Red Flag conditions are noted in the Guadalupes, and
persistence suggests similar conditions Monday.

Otherwise, the general synoptic trend going into this week will be
an upper trough digging down the west coast, keeping West Texas and
Southeast New Mexico under SW flow aloft, w/dryline convection daily
east of this feature, mainly SE zones.  Midweek, the trough will
begin moving east, and pass north of the region Friday
night/Saturday.  Temps should stay above-normal until late week,
when they`ll drop to near-normal as thicknesses decrease w`the
approach of the trough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     72  96  70  94 /  20  20  10  10
Carlsbad                       59  94  60  93 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         72  96  74  95 /  20  10  10  10
Fort Stockton                  66  94  66  94 /  10  10  10   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  86  58  84 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          60  90  57  91 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          50  85  52  87 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           73  97  70  95 /  20  10  10   0
Odessa                         70  95  69  95 /  20  10  10   0
Wink                           65  98  63  96 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from this afternoon through this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$

27/72





000
FXUS64 KMAF 221750
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1250 PM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorm potential is the main concern this afternoon/evening.
Currently, high-res guidance is differing on the location of
convective initiation, though storms are possible at INK and FST,
with the best chance at MAF. Main threats with storms will be
large hail, gusty winds, and visibility reductions in heavy rain.
Given uncertainties in exact timing/location, have not included
mention in TAFs at this time. Storms will move east late this
evening, with low ceilings likely returning to MAF after 23/09Z,
improving by mid-morning Monday. Windy conditions will continue,
with W/SW winds west of the dryline, and S/SE winds east of the
dryline.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 319 AM CDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low over the NW part of the country this morning will
continue to lift NE but additional lobes will rotate down behind it.
Upper ridge over the area will shift east as the trough grows across
the Western US.  This will put the region into SW flow aloft and
allow disturbances to track across the area.  It will take most of
the week for this secondary part of the trough to swing through and
by the time it does another upper low moves onto the NW coast.

Have very good low level moisture in place this morning with dewpts
in the low to mid 60s and even into the 70s in Terrell.  Low clouds
spreading NW.  Did not have that many storms around yesterday but
some of them did produce large hail... with some storms continuing
overnight.  May see a repeat of those today as a slight risk in
effect today for eastern half of the area as storms are expected to
develop along a dryline again today.  Mention of severe storms
already in the zones/grids so will keep that and will continue to
highlight large hail and damaging wind in the HWO.  Storm chances
continue for the east Monday with pops decreasing on Tuesday.  Some
low pops continue through the extended mainly for the east.

Temperatures have been unseasonably warm and running above
guidance... will go over guidance again today as much of the area
should climb into the 90s.  The rest of the week looks warm with 90s
for most of the region each day.  Overnight lows will remain
elevated.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry and breezy conditions expected across western portions of the
region today as a dryline pushes east through the afternoon. Minimum
relative humidity will quickly drop below 15 percent across SE NM
south through the Big Bend. Critical fire weather conditions are
expected to develop across the Guadalupe Mountains where wind speeds
will be greater than 20 mph. Will go ahead and upgrade the Fire
Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning for the Guadalupe Mountains for
this afternoon and early evening. The Guadalupe Mountains will
likely see a repeat event on Monday and a Fire Weather Watch is now
in effect for this area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     68  93  70  92 /  40  20  20  20
Carlsbad                       61  94  59  93 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                         72  91  71  94 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Stockton                  67  93  65  95 /  20  10  20  10
Guadalupe Pass                 60  86  58  83 /  10  10  10   0
Hobbs                          60  89  59  91 /  10  10  10   0
Marfa                          51  88  49  89 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           69  94  68  95 /  30  20  20  10
Odessa                         69  93  68  95 /  30  10  20  10
Wink                           66  96  65  97 /  20  10  20   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

TX...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
     Guadalupe Mountains.

     Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for Guadalupe Mountains.

&&

$$





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