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000
FXUS64 KMAF 262310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting terminals early Wednesday morning. Currently have light
and variable winds at all but MAF where moderate SE winds prevail.
Overnight, expect generally light winds at all but MAF and FST where
SE winds will remain somewhat elevated due to a persistent LLJ
across this area. LL moisture will increase after midnight tonight
with possible IFR cigs affecting MAF and FST around 27/08-09Z,
spreading NW toward INK and HOB by 27/10Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will return to all TAF sites by late morning. Could see some
isolated convection develop Wednesday afternoon but confidence in
location/timing is too low to include mention attm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday
and near normal values for this time of year.  A dryline is present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low
Rolling Plains.  The NAM12 is showing areas in Terrell County with
CAPE values up to 4000 J/Kg of CAPE by 00z today and good bulk shear
values with the best values across the Lower Trans Pecos.  Mid-level
lapse rates will be decent so thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening along and east of this dryline.  A few severe
storms will be possible given the above mentioned conditions with
large hail, damaging winds, and brief heavy rain being the main
threats.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the
overnight period but do not expect widespread convection.

A dryline is expected to once again develop across the area on
Wednesday.  The NAM12 is showing CAPE values of 4000+ J/Kg across
the Lower Trans Pecos and central/eastern Permian Basin.  Bulk shear
values will not be quite as impressive as today but are still
expected to be sufficient enough for thunderstorms, some of which
may become severe.  A source of upper level lift may be a limiting
factor in storms developing initially during the afternoon, but a
shortwave is expected to move over the higher terrain of West Texas
by Wednesday evening so storm development could increase at this
time.  A surface trough is expected to develop across areas along
and west of the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday afternoon so storms may
initially develop across the Upper Trans Pecos then shift eastward
as upper level lift moves closer to the region.

An upper level trough will be approaching the region Wednesday night
with upper level lift increasing and shortwaves moving over the
CWA.  The dryline will be backed up against the Guadalupe Mountains
by 12z Thursday with CAPE values of 3000+ widespread across the
area.  Bulk shear values will be around 30 kts across portions of
the area but mid-level lapse rates are expected to be around 8
degrees C/km and 500 mb omega values will be increased over the
region Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  The models are showing
convection being widespread across the CWA by Thursday morning.
Severe storms will be possible at this time given the abundant CAPE
and upper-level lift.  The dryline will not have moved much eastward
by Thursday afternoon with its position expected to be across the
Upper Trans Pecos according to the NAM12.  CAPE values will still be
high Thursday afternoon but not as high as they were during the
early morning hours.  Bulk shear values will have increased by the
afternoon and lapse rates will still be good, so severe storms will
once again be possible during the afternoon hours.  Heavy rainfall
may also be a concern on this day given the forecasted model QPF
from the abundance of moisture and lift.  Temperatures on Thursday
are expected to be cooler due to the increase in cloud cloud and
precipitation as well as cooler 850 mb temperatures across the area.

Temperatures are expected to warm back up on Friday as a surface
trough develops across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas.
Thunderstorms will remain possible with a dryline present across the
area.  A cold front will move into the area on Saturday/Saturday
night and precipitation chances will increase ahead of and along the
front.  Temperatures will be cooler Saturday and Sunday behind the
front.  Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Sunday
then chances will decrease as an upper ridge develops over the
region early next week.  Temperatures will warm back up closer to
normal on Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 262310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting terminals early Wednesday morning. Currently have light
and variable winds at all but MAF where moderate SE winds prevail.
Overnight, expect generally light winds at all but MAF and FST where
SE winds will remain somewhat elevated due to a persistent LLJ
across this area. LL moisture will increase after midnight tonight
with possible IFR cigs affecting MAF and FST around 27/08-09Z,
spreading NW toward INK and HOB by 27/10Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will return to all TAF sites by late morning. Could see some
isolated convection develop Wednesday afternoon but confidence in
location/timing is too low to include mention attm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday
and near normal values for this time of year.  A dryline is present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low
Rolling Plains.  The NAM12 is showing areas in Terrell County with
CAPE values up to 4000 J/Kg of CAPE by 00z today and good bulk shear
values with the best values across the Lower Trans Pecos.  Mid-level
lapse rates will be decent so thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening along and east of this dryline.  A few severe
storms will be possible given the above mentioned conditions with
large hail, damaging winds, and brief heavy rain being the main
threats.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the
overnight period but do not expect widespread convection.

A dryline is expected to once again develop across the area on
Wednesday.  The NAM12 is showing CAPE values of 4000+ J/Kg across
the Lower Trans Pecos and central/eastern Permian Basin.  Bulk shear
values will not be quite as impressive as today but are still
expected to be sufficient enough for thunderstorms, some of which
may become severe.  A source of upper level lift may be a limiting
factor in storms developing initially during the afternoon, but a
shortwave is expected to move over the higher terrain of West Texas
by Wednesday evening so storm development could increase at this
time.  A surface trough is expected to develop across areas along
and west of the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday afternoon so storms may
initially develop across the Upper Trans Pecos then shift eastward
as upper level lift moves closer to the region.

An upper level trough will be approaching the region Wednesday night
with upper level lift increasing and shortwaves moving over the
CWA.  The dryline will be backed up against the Guadalupe Mountains
by 12z Thursday with CAPE values of 3000+ widespread across the
area.  Bulk shear values will be around 30 kts across portions of
the area but mid-level lapse rates are expected to be around 8
degrees C/km and 500 mb omega values will be increased over the
region Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  The models are showing
convection being widespread across the CWA by Thursday morning.
Severe storms will be possible at this time given the abundant CAPE
and upper-level lift.  The dryline will not have moved much eastward
by Thursday afternoon with its position expected to be across the
Upper Trans Pecos according to the NAM12.  CAPE values will still be
high Thursday afternoon but not as high as they were during the
early morning hours.  Bulk shear values will have increased by the
afternoon and lapse rates will still be good, so severe storms will
once again be possible during the afternoon hours.  Heavy rainfall
may also be a concern on this day given the forecasted model QPF
from the abundance of moisture and lift.  Temperatures on Thursday
are expected to be cooler due to the increase in cloud cloud and
precipitation as well as cooler 850 mb temperatures across the area.

Temperatures are expected to warm back up on Friday as a surface
trough develops across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas.
Thunderstorms will remain possible with a dryline present across the
area.  A cold front will move into the area on Saturday/Saturday
night and precipitation chances will increase ahead of and along the
front.  Temperatures will be cooler Saturday and Sunday behind the
front.  Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Sunday
then chances will decrease as an upper ridge develops over the
region early next week.  Temperatures will warm back up closer to
normal on Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 262310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015


.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting terminals early Wednesday morning. Currently have light
and variable winds at all but MAF where moderate SE winds prevail.
Overnight, expect generally light winds at all but MAF and FST where
SE winds will remain somewhat elevated due to a persistent LLJ
across this area. LL moisture will increase after midnight tonight
with possible IFR cigs affecting MAF and FST around 27/08-09Z,
spreading NW toward INK and HOB by 27/10Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will return to all TAF sites by late morning. Could see some
isolated convection develop Wednesday afternoon but confidence in
location/timing is too low to include mention attm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday
and near normal values for this time of year.  A dryline is present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low
Rolling Plains.  The NAM12 is showing areas in Terrell County with
CAPE values up to 4000 J/Kg of CAPE by 00z today and good bulk shear
values with the best values across the Lower Trans Pecos.  Mid-level
lapse rates will be decent so thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening along and east of this dryline.  A few severe
storms will be possible given the above mentioned conditions with
large hail, damaging winds, and brief heavy rain being the main
threats.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the
overnight period but do not expect widespread convection.

A dryline is expected to once again develop across the area on
Wednesday.  The NAM12 is showing CAPE values of 4000+ J/Kg across
the Lower Trans Pecos and central/eastern Permian Basin.  Bulk shear
values will not be quite as impressive as today but are still
expected to be sufficient enough for thunderstorms, some of which
may become severe.  A source of upper level lift may be a limiting
factor in storms developing initially during the afternoon, but a
shortwave is expected to move over the higher terrain of West Texas
by Wednesday evening so storm development could increase at this
time.  A surface trough is expected to develop across areas along
and west of the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday afternoon so storms may
initially develop across the Upper Trans Pecos then shift eastward
as upper level lift moves closer to the region.

An upper level trough will be approaching the region Wednesday night
with upper level lift increasing and shortwaves moving over the
CWA.  The dryline will be backed up against the Guadalupe Mountains
by 12z Thursday with CAPE values of 3000+ widespread across the
area.  Bulk shear values will be around 30 kts across portions of
the area but mid-level lapse rates are expected to be around 8
degrees C/km and 500 mb omega values will be increased over the
region Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  The models are showing
convection being widespread across the CWA by Thursday morning.
Severe storms will be possible at this time given the abundant CAPE
and upper-level lift.  The dryline will not have moved much eastward
by Thursday afternoon with its position expected to be across the
Upper Trans Pecos according to the NAM12.  CAPE values will still be
high Thursday afternoon but not as high as they were during the
early morning hours.  Bulk shear values will have increased by the
afternoon and lapse rates will still be good, so severe storms will
once again be possible during the afternoon hours.  Heavy rainfall
may also be a concern on this day given the forecasted model QPF
from the abundance of moisture and lift.  Temperatures on Thursday
are expected to be cooler due to the increase in cloud cloud and
precipitation as well as cooler 850 mb temperatures across the area.

Temperatures are expected to warm back up on Friday as a surface
trough develops across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas.
Thunderstorms will remain possible with a dryline present across the
area.  A cold front will move into the area on Saturday/Saturday
night and precipitation chances will increase ahead of and along the
front.  Temperatures will be cooler Saturday and Sunday behind the
front.  Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Sunday
then chances will decrease as an upper ridge develops over the
region early next week.  Temperatures will warm back up closer to
normal on Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 261942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday
and near normal values for this time of year.  A dryline is present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low
Rolling Plains.  The NAM12 is showing areas in Terrell County with
CAPE values up to 4000 J/Kg of CAPE by 00z today and good bulk shear
values with the best values across the Lower Trans Pecos.  Mid-level
lapse rates will be decent so thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening along and east of this dryline.  A few severe
storms will be possible given the above mentioned conditions with
large hail, damaging winds, and brief heavy rain being the main
threats.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the
overnight period but do not expect widespread convection.

A dryline is expected to once again develop across the area on
Wednesday.  The NAM12 is showing CAPE values of 4000+ J/Kg across
the Lower Trans Pecos and central/eastern Permian Basin.  Bulk shear
values will not be quite as impressive as today but are still
expected to be sufficient enough for thunderstorms, some of which
may become severe.  A source of upper level lift may be a limiting
factor in storms developing initially during the afternoon, but a
shortwave is expected to move over the higher terrain of West Texas
by Wednesday evening so storm development could increase at this
time.  A surface trough is expected to develop across areas along
and west of the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday afternoon so storms may
initially develop across the Upper Trans Pecos then shift eastward
as upper level lift moves closer to the region.

An upper level trough will be approaching the region Wednesday night
with upper level lift increasing and shortwaves moving over the
CWA.  The dryline will be backed up against the Guadalupe Mountains
by 12z Thursday with CAPE values of 3000+ widespread across the
area.  Bulk shear values will be around 30 kts across portions of
the area but mid-level lapse rates are expected to be around 8
degrees C/km and 500 mb omega values will be increased over the
region Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  The models are showing
convection being widespread across the CWA by Thursday morning.
Severe storms will be possible at this time given the abundant CAPE
and upper-level lift.  The dryline will not have moved much eastward
by Thursday afternoon with its position expected to be across the
Upper Trans Pecos according to the NAM12.  CAPE values will still be
high Thursday afternoon but not as high as they were during the
early morning hours.  Bulk shear values will have increased by the
afternoon and lapse rates will still be good, so severe storms will
once again be possible during the afternoon hours.  Heavy rainfall
may also be a concern on this day given the forecasted model QPF
from the abundance of moisture and lift.  Temperatures on Thursday
are expected to be cooler due to the increase in cloud cloud and
precipitation as well as cooler 850 mb temperatures across the area.

Temperatures are expected to warm back up on Friday as a surface
trough develops across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas.
Thunderstorms will remain possible with a dryline present across the
area.  A cold front will move into the area on Saturday/Saturday
night and precipitation chances will increase ahead of and along the
front.  Temperatures will be cooler Saturday and Sunday behind the
front.  Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Sunday
then chances will decrease as an upper ridge develops over the
region early next week.  Temperatures will warm back up closer to
normal on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  89  68  82  /  20  10  30  50
BIG SPRING TX              68  89  69  82  /  20  20  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                59  91  65  91  /   0  20  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  71  90  72  87  /  20  20  30  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  93  69  85  /  20  10  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  87  61  88  /   0  20  30  20
HOBBS NM                   64  89  67  81  /  10  10  40  50
MARFA TX                   50  89  61  83  /  10  20  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  88  69  82  /  20  10  30  50
ODESSA TX                  68  89  69  82  /  20  10  30  50
WINK TX                    67  93  70  87  /  10  10  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 261942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday
and near normal values for this time of year.  A dryline is present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low
Rolling Plains.  The NAM12 is showing areas in Terrell County with
CAPE values up to 4000 J/Kg of CAPE by 00z today and good bulk shear
values with the best values across the Lower Trans Pecos.  Mid-level
lapse rates will be decent so thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening along and east of this dryline.  A few severe
storms will be possible given the above mentioned conditions with
large hail, damaging winds, and brief heavy rain being the main
threats.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the
overnight period but do not expect widespread convection.

A dryline is expected to once again develop across the area on
Wednesday.  The NAM12 is showing CAPE values of 4000+ J/Kg across
the Lower Trans Pecos and central/eastern Permian Basin.  Bulk shear
values will not be quite as impressive as today but are still
expected to be sufficient enough for thunderstorms, some of which
may become severe.  A source of upper level lift may be a limiting
factor in storms developing initially during the afternoon, but a
shortwave is expected to move over the higher terrain of West Texas
by Wednesday evening so storm development could increase at this
time.  A surface trough is expected to develop across areas along
and west of the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday afternoon so storms may
initially develop across the Upper Trans Pecos then shift eastward
as upper level lift moves closer to the region.

An upper level trough will be approaching the region Wednesday night
with upper level lift increasing and shortwaves moving over the
CWA.  The dryline will be backed up against the Guadalupe Mountains
by 12z Thursday with CAPE values of 3000+ widespread across the
area.  Bulk shear values will be around 30 kts across portions of
the area but mid-level lapse rates are expected to be around 8
degrees C/km and 500 mb omega values will be increased over the
region Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  The models are showing
convection being widespread across the CWA by Thursday morning.
Severe storms will be possible at this time given the abundant CAPE
and upper-level lift.  The dryline will not have moved much eastward
by Thursday afternoon with its position expected to be across the
Upper Trans Pecos according to the NAM12.  CAPE values will still be
high Thursday afternoon but not as high as they were during the
early morning hours.  Bulk shear values will have increased by the
afternoon and lapse rates will still be good, so severe storms will
once again be possible during the afternoon hours.  Heavy rainfall
may also be a concern on this day given the forecasted model QPF
from the abundance of moisture and lift.  Temperatures on Thursday
are expected to be cooler due to the increase in cloud cloud and
precipitation as well as cooler 850 mb temperatures across the area.

Temperatures are expected to warm back up on Friday as a surface
trough develops across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas.
Thunderstorms will remain possible with a dryline present across the
area.  A cold front will move into the area on Saturday/Saturday
night and precipitation chances will increase ahead of and along the
front.  Temperatures will be cooler Saturday and Sunday behind the
front.  Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Sunday
then chances will decrease as an upper ridge develops over the
region early next week.  Temperatures will warm back up closer to
normal on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  89  68  82  /  20  10  30  50
BIG SPRING TX              68  89  69  82  /  20  20  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                59  91  65  91  /   0  20  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  71  90  72  87  /  20  20  30  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  93  69  85  /  20  10  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  87  61  88  /   0  20  30  20
HOBBS NM                   64  89  67  81  /  10  10  40  50
MARFA TX                   50  89  61  83  /  10  20  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  88  69  82  /  20  10  30  50
ODESSA TX                  68  89  69  82  /  20  10  30  50
WINK TX                    67  93  70  87  /  10  10  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 261942
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
241 PM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Temperatures today are expected to be a little warmer than yesterday
and near normal values for this time of year.  A dryline is present
across the Lower Trans Pecos, eastern Permian Basin, and Western Low
Rolling Plains.  The NAM12 is showing areas in Terrell County with
CAPE values up to 4000 J/Kg of CAPE by 00z today and good bulk shear
values with the best values across the Lower Trans Pecos.  Mid-level
lapse rates will be decent so thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening along and east of this dryline.  A few severe
storms will be possible given the above mentioned conditions with
large hail, damaging winds, and brief heavy rain being the main
threats.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible into the
overnight period but do not expect widespread convection.

A dryline is expected to once again develop across the area on
Wednesday.  The NAM12 is showing CAPE values of 4000+ J/Kg across
the Lower Trans Pecos and central/eastern Permian Basin.  Bulk shear
values will not be quite as impressive as today but are still
expected to be sufficient enough for thunderstorms, some of which
may become severe.  A source of upper level lift may be a limiting
factor in storms developing initially during the afternoon, but a
shortwave is expected to move over the higher terrain of West Texas
by Wednesday evening so storm development could increase at this
time.  A surface trough is expected to develop across areas along
and west of the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday afternoon so storms may
initially develop across the Upper Trans Pecos then shift eastward
as upper level lift moves closer to the region.

An upper level trough will be approaching the region Wednesday night
with upper level lift increasing and shortwaves moving over the
CWA.  The dryline will be backed up against the Guadalupe Mountains
by 12z Thursday with CAPE values of 3000+ widespread across the
area.  Bulk shear values will be around 30 kts across portions of
the area but mid-level lapse rates are expected to be around 8
degrees C/km and 500 mb omega values will be increased over the
region Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  The models are showing
convection being widespread across the CWA by Thursday morning.
Severe storms will be possible at this time given the abundant CAPE
and upper-level lift.  The dryline will not have moved much eastward
by Thursday afternoon with its position expected to be across the
Upper Trans Pecos according to the NAM12.  CAPE values will still be
high Thursday afternoon but not as high as they were during the
early morning hours.  Bulk shear values will have increased by the
afternoon and lapse rates will still be good, so severe storms will
once again be possible during the afternoon hours.  Heavy rainfall
may also be a concern on this day given the forecasted model QPF
from the abundance of moisture and lift.  Temperatures on Thursday
are expected to be cooler due to the increase in cloud cloud and
precipitation as well as cooler 850 mb temperatures across the area.

Temperatures are expected to warm back up on Friday as a surface
trough develops across southeast New Mexico and far West Texas.
Thunderstorms will remain possible with a dryline present across the
area.  A cold front will move into the area on Saturday/Saturday
night and precipitation chances will increase ahead of and along the
front.  Temperatures will be cooler Saturday and Sunday behind the
front.  Rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue into Sunday
then chances will decrease as an upper ridge develops over the
region early next week.  Temperatures will warm back up closer to
normal on Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 66  89  68  82  /  20  10  30  50
BIG SPRING TX              68  89  69  82  /  20  20  30  50
CARLSBAD NM                59  91  65  91  /   0  20  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  71  90  72  87  /  20  20  30  50
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  93  69  85  /  20  10  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          60  87  61  88  /   0  20  30  20
HOBBS NM                   64  89  67  81  /  10  10  40  50
MARFA TX                   50  89  61  83  /  10  20  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  88  69  82  /  20  10  30  50
ODESSA TX                  68  89  69  82  /  20  10  30  50
WINK TX                    67  93  70  87  /  10  10  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 261659
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1159 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through this
evening.  However, increasing moisture on low level southeasterly
winds will likely result in IFR ceilings forming late tonight.  Have
included these ceilings at all but KCNM after 27/08Z.  Expect VFR
conditions to prevail again after 27/17Z, although thunderstorm
chances may need to be added just beyond this forecast period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 261659
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1159 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through this
evening.  However, increasing moisture on low level southeasterly
winds will likely result in IFR ceilings forming late tonight.  Have
included these ceilings at all but KCNM after 27/08Z.  Expect VFR
conditions to prevail again after 27/17Z, although thunderstorm
chances may need to be added just beyond this forecast period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261659
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1159 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through this
evening.  However, increasing moisture on low level southeasterly
winds will likely result in IFR ceilings forming late tonight.  Have
included these ceilings at all but KCNM after 27/08Z.  Expect VFR
conditions to prevail again after 27/17Z, although thunderstorm
chances may need to be added just beyond this forecast period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261659
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1159 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals through this
evening.  However, increasing moisture on low level southeasterly
winds will likely result in IFR ceilings forming late tonight.  Have
included these ceilings at all but KCNM after 27/08Z.  Expect VFR
conditions to prevail again after 27/17Z, although thunderstorm
chances may need to be added just beyond this forecast period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261124
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with light winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis this morning shows a weak surface low in
southeastern New Mexico extending south into the Davis Mountains.
Westerly mid and upper level flow will mix to the surface with
afternoon heating and push this trough into the central Permian
Basin with isolated thunderstorms developing to the east of this
feature beginning in the late afternoon and reaching maximum
coverage during the early evening. There will be quite a bit of
potential instability today but shear will be marginal for severe
storms.

Wednesday the focus for rain will shift back to the west as
another low digs into the southwestern U.S. pulling moisture back
against the mountains. Convection will develop with the help of
the terrain Wednesday evening then move east and expand in
coverage Thursday with the support of an upper level disturbance
moving northeast out of Mexico. Westerly upper flow Friday will
decrease PoPs but an approaching cold front Saturday will increase
rain chances once again. It is currently expected to move into the
Permian Basin Saturday night, which is when the PoPs are greatest,
but convective outflow could push this front through sooner and we
may end up seeing most of the rain Saturday...then decreasing
overnight. Clouds and rain will keep temps at or below normal the
next week ensuring that May will finish below normal in average
temperature for the first time in 5 years.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261124
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with light winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis this morning shows a weak surface low in
southeastern New Mexico extending south into the Davis Mountains.
Westerly mid and upper level flow will mix to the surface with
afternoon heating and push this trough into the central Permian
Basin with isolated thunderstorms developing to the east of this
feature beginning in the late afternoon and reaching maximum
coverage during the early evening. There will be quite a bit of
potential instability today but shear will be marginal for severe
storms.

Wednesday the focus for rain will shift back to the west as
another low digs into the southwestern U.S. pulling moisture back
against the mountains. Convection will develop with the help of
the terrain Wednesday evening then move east and expand in
coverage Thursday with the support of an upper level disturbance
moving northeast out of Mexico. Westerly upper flow Friday will
decrease PoPs but an approaching cold front Saturday will increase
rain chances once again. It is currently expected to move into the
Permian Basin Saturday night, which is when the PoPs are greatest,
but convective outflow could push this front through sooner and we
may end up seeing most of the rain Saturday...then decreasing
overnight. Clouds and rain will keep temps at or below normal the
next week ensuring that May will finish below normal in average
temperature for the first time in 5 years.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260920
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
420 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis this morning shows a weak surface low in
southeastern New Mexico extending south into the Davis Mountains.
Westerly mid and upper level flow will mix to the surface with
afternoon heating and push this trough into the central Permian
Basin with isolated thunderstorms developing to the east of this
feature beginning in the late afternoon and reaching maximum
coverage during the early evening. There will be quite a bit of
potential instability today but shear will be marginal for severe
storms.

Wednesday the focus for rain will shift back to the west as
another low digs into the southwestern U.S. pulling moisture back
against the mountains. Convection will develop with the help of
the terrain Wednesday evening then move east and expand in
coverage Thursday with the support of an upper level disturbance
moving northeast out of Mexico. Westerly upper flow Friday will
decrease PoPs but an approaching cold front Saturday will increase
rain chances once again. It is currently expected to move into the
Permian Basin Saturday night, which is when the PoPs are greatest,
but convective outflow could push this front through sooner and we
may end up seeing most of the rain Saturday...then decreasing
overnight. Clouds and rain will keep temps at or below normal the
next week ensuring that May will finish below normal in average
temperature for the first time in 5 years.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  66  90  68  /   0  10  10  30
BIG SPRING TX              88  68  89  69  /  10  10  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                88  59  93  65  /   0   0  10  40
DRYDEN TX                  92  71  91  71  /  10  20  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           90  67  93  70  /  10  10  10  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          82  62  87  62  /   0   0  10  30
HOBBS NM                   85  62  89  66  /   0   0  10  40
MARFA TX                   85  50  88  61  /   0   0  10  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    89  68  90  69  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  89  68  90  69  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                    91  66  95  70  /   0   0  10  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29/10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260525
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue into Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260525
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 AM CDT Tue May 26 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions will continue into Tuesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
707 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with mostly clear skies. A few virga showers possible into
the evening producing erratic gusts. Could see some morning
stratus over Eastern Permian Basin but should stay east of MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A potent shortwave trough responsible for the thunderstorms this
morning has ejected northeastward into Oklahoma, with thunderstorms
having moved well east of the area.  Expect fairly quiet weather
through Tuesday under weak westerly flow aloft with temperatures
warming above normal.  However, another shortwave trough will move
ashore over California Wednesday with the flow aloft over the region
becoming southwesterly.  There are some hints of a shortwave trough
translating over the region Wednesday afternoon, and with near to
above normal temperatures, thunderstorms will be possible along a
sharpening dryline.  For now, will include a slight chance of
storms, and a low order chance Wednesday night mainly over the
western half of the CWA, due to model differences with the timing
and strength of the trough.  If storms develop, some could be severe
as instability, shear and lapse rates will be favorable for strong,
organized convection.

Barring a widespread rain event Wednesday, convection could flourish
over all of southeast New Mexico and west Texas Thursday as the base
of the upper trough begins to move over the area.  Will carry the
highest chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night since
the best dynamics will be available then.  Convective parameters
will be very favorable for severe thunderstorm development, so will
include the potential for severe thunderstorms on both Wednesday and
Thursday in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).  Although the
base of the ua trough will swing by Thursday night, a pair of
shortwave troughs are progged to drop southeastward around the
southern periphery of the slow moving ua trough over the
southern/central U.S. Plains.  Since we will still be quite warm
both Friday and Saturday, and a dryline will remain over the
region, there will be a chance of scattered thunderstorms each
day.  Conditions appear favorable for more severe thunderstorms,
so will keep a mention in the HWO.

An upper ridge is then progged to build over Mexico, if not west
Texas, late this weekend and keep the region under weak northwest
flow aloft.  So far this Spring, models have been indicating
expansion of an upper ridge several days in advance many times,
but it usually ends up being another upper trough.  Will keep PoPs
to a dull roar after Saturday until we see which of these upper
features comes about.  There some indications a cold front will move
south into the area Friday/Saturday with some cooling for locations
along and north of Interstate 20.  If the cooler temperatures do
make it this far south, would expect readings to rebound to above
normal by Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
707 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with mostly clear skies. A few virga showers possible into
the evening producing erratic gusts. Could see some morning
stratus over Eastern Permian Basin but should stay east of MAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A potent shortwave trough responsible for the thunderstorms this
morning has ejected northeastward into Oklahoma, with thunderstorms
having moved well east of the area.  Expect fairly quiet weather
through Tuesday under weak westerly flow aloft with temperatures
warming above normal.  However, another shortwave trough will move
ashore over California Wednesday with the flow aloft over the region
becoming southwesterly.  There are some hints of a shortwave trough
translating over the region Wednesday afternoon, and with near to
above normal temperatures, thunderstorms will be possible along a
sharpening dryline.  For now, will include a slight chance of
storms, and a low order chance Wednesday night mainly over the
western half of the CWA, due to model differences with the timing
and strength of the trough.  If storms develop, some could be severe
as instability, shear and lapse rates will be favorable for strong,
organized convection.

Barring a widespread rain event Wednesday, convection could flourish
over all of southeast New Mexico and west Texas Thursday as the base
of the upper trough begins to move over the area.  Will carry the
highest chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night since
the best dynamics will be available then.  Convective parameters
will be very favorable for severe thunderstorm development, so will
include the potential for severe thunderstorms on both Wednesday and
Thursday in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).  Although the
base of the ua trough will swing by Thursday night, a pair of
shortwave troughs are progged to drop southeastward around the
southern periphery of the slow moving ua trough over the
southern/central U.S. Plains.  Since we will still be quite warm
both Friday and Saturday, and a dryline will remain over the
region, there will be a chance of scattered thunderstorms each
day.  Conditions appear favorable for more severe thunderstorms,
so will keep a mention in the HWO.

An upper ridge is then progged to build over Mexico, if not west
Texas, late this weekend and keep the region under weak northwest
flow aloft.  So far this Spring, models have been indicating
expansion of an upper ridge several days in advance many times,
but it usually ends up being another upper trough.  Will keep PoPs
to a dull roar after Saturday until we see which of these upper
features comes about.  There some indications a cold front will move
south into the area Friday/Saturday with some cooling for locations
along and north of Interstate 20.  If the cooler temperatures do
make it this far south, would expect readings to rebound to above
normal by Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251915
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
215 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A potent shortwave trough responsible for the thunderstorms this
morning has ejected northeastward into Oklahoma, with thunderstorms
having moved well east of the area.  Expect fairly quiet weather
through Tuesday under weak westerly flow aloft with temperatures
warming above normal.  However, another shortwave trough will move
ashore over California Wednesday with the flow aloft over the region
becoming southwesterly.  There are some hints of a shortwave trough
translating over the region Wednesday afternoon, and with near to
above normal temperatures, thunderstorms will be possible along a
sharpening dryline.  For now, will include a slight chance of
storms, and a low order chance Wednesday night mainly over the
western half of the CWA, due to model differences with the timing
and strength of the trough.  If storms develop, some could be severe
as instability, shear and lapse rates will be favorable for strong,
organized convection.

Barring a widespread rain event Wednesday, convection could flourish
over all of southeast New Mexico and west Texas Thursday as the base
of the upper trough begins to move over the area.  Will carry the
highest chance of thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night since
the best dynamics will be available then.  Convective parameters
will be very favorable for severe thunderstorm development, so will
include the potential for severe thunderstorms on both Wednesday and
Thursday in the Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWO).  Although the
base of the ua trough will swing by Thursday night, a pair of
shortwave troughs are progged to drop southeastward around the
southern periphery of the slow moving ua trough over the
southern/central U.S. Plains.  Since we will still be quite warm
both Friday and Saturday, and a dryline will remain over the
region, there will be a chance of scattered thunderstorms each
day.  Conditions appear favorable for more severe thunderstorms,
so will keep a mention in the HWO.

An upper ridge is then progged to build over Mexico, if not west
Texas, late this weekend and keep the region under weak northwest
flow aloft.  So far this Spring, models have been indicating
expansion of an upper ridge several days in advance many times,
but it usually ends up being another upper trough.  Will keep PoPs
to a dull roar after Saturday until we see which of these upper
features comes about.  There some indications a cold front will move
south into the area Friday/Saturday with some cooling for locations
along and north of Interstate 20.  If the cooler temperatures do
make it this far south, would expect readings to rebound to above
normal by Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  90  64  90  /   0   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              62  92  67  92  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                55  91  59  93  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  63  95  71  93  /   0  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  91  66  91  /   0   0  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  84  61  86  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   53  87  61  88  /   0   0  10  20
MARFA TX                   43  87  53  90  /   0   0   0  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  92  66  91  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  61  91  67  90  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    57  94  64  95  /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
become elevated out of the west this afternoon with some gusts.
Winds will decrease after sunset and become more southerly to
southwesterly. Skies are expected to be mostly clear except for a
few mid to high level clouds that will come in from the west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

UPDATE...

Update to cancel the rest of Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number
209.

DISCUSSION...

Quite the complex of storms have moved east of the region, so have
updated the forecast to cancel the rest of the Severe
Thunderstorms Watch, and lower PoPs through the rest of the day.
Aside from tweaking sky conditions and dewpoints, raised
temperatures a little over the western half of the area. An
updated forecast will follow shortly.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251712
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 PM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will
become elevated out of the west this afternoon with some gusts.
Winds will decrease after sunset and become more southerly to
southwesterly. Skies are expected to be mostly clear except for a
few mid to high level clouds that will come in from the west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

UPDATE...

Update to cancel the rest of Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number
209.

DISCUSSION...

Quite the complex of storms have moved east of the region, so have
updated the forecast to cancel the rest of the Severe
Thunderstorms Watch, and lower PoPs through the rest of the day.
Aside from tweaking sky conditions and dewpoints, raised
temperatures a little over the western half of the area. An
updated forecast will follow shortly.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251551
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1051 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel the rest of Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number
209.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Quite the complex of storms have moved east of the region, so have
updated the forecast to cancel the rest of the Severe
Thunderstorms Watch, and lower PoPs through the rest of the day.
Aside from tweaking sky conditions and dewpoints, raised
temperatures a little over the western half of the area. An
updated forecast will follow shortly.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251551
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1051 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel the rest of Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number
209.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Quite the complex of storms have moved east of the region, so have
updated the forecast to cancel the rest of the Severe
Thunderstorms Watch, and lower PoPs through the rest of the day.
Aside from tweaking sky conditions and dewpoints, raised
temperatures a little over the western half of the area. An
updated forecast will follow shortly.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251148
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
648 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 209.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have blossomed over the Permian Basin this morning.
Due to a compact, but strong shortwave trough moving over the
area, decent elevated instability and steep mid level lapse rates,
some of the storms are producing large hail.  Think storms will
move rapidly off to the northeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  59  90  63  /  30   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  63  91  68  /  40  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  91  57  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  93  63  93  71  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  60  93  66  /  20   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  57  82  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   82  55  88  60  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   78  43  85  52  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  59  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  86  61  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
WINK TX                    87  57  95  65  /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251148
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
648 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 209.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have blossomed over the Permian Basin this morning.
Due to a compact, but strong shortwave trough moving over the
area, decent elevated instability and steep mid level lapse rates,
some of the storms are producing large hail.  Think storms will
move rapidly off to the northeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  59  90  63  /  30   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  63  91  68  /  40  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  91  57  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  93  63  93  71  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  60  93  66  /  20   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  57  82  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   82  55  88  60  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   78  43  85  52  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  59  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  86  61  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
WINK TX                    87  57  95  65  /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251148
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
648 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 209.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have blossomed over the Permian Basin this morning.
Due to a compact, but strong shortwave trough moving over the
area, decent elevated instability and steep mid level lapse rates,
some of the storms are producing large hail.  Think storms will
move rapidly off to the northeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  59  90  63  /  30   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  63  91  68  /  40  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  91  57  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  93  63  93  71  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  60  93  66  /  20   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  57  82  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   82  55  88  60  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   78  43  85  52  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  59  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  86  61  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
WINK TX                    87  57  95  65  /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251148
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
648 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.UPDATE...

Update to include Severe Thunderstorm Watch number 209.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have blossomed over the Permian Basin this morning.
Due to a compact, but strong shortwave trough moving over the
area, decent elevated instability and steep mid level lapse rates,
some of the storms are producing large hail.  Think storms will
move rapidly off to the northeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  59  90  63  /  30   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  63  91  68  /  40  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  91  57  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  93  63  93  71  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  60  93  66  /  20   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  57  82  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   82  55  88  60  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   78  43  85  52  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  59  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  86  61  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
WINK TX                    87  57  95  65  /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 251147
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across far
southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin this morning, thus have
included TEMPOs for KHOB, KMAF, and KINK through mid/late morning.
Brief reductions in visibility to MVFR are expected in heavy rain
if any storms pass over the terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to prevail area-wide from this afternoon onward, with
southwest winds gusting up to around 20kt. Gusts will diminish
after sunset this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/33

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251147
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across far
southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin this morning, thus have
included TEMPOs for KHOB, KMAF, and KINK through mid/late morning.
Brief reductions in visibility to MVFR are expected in heavy rain
if any storms pass over the terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to prevail area-wide from this afternoon onward, with
southwest winds gusting up to around 20kt. Gusts will diminish
after sunset this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/33

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251147
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across far
southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin this morning, thus have
included TEMPOs for KHOB, KMAF, and KINK through mid/late morning.
Brief reductions in visibility to MVFR are expected in heavy rain
if any storms pass over the terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to prevail area-wide from this afternoon onward, with
southwest winds gusting up to around 20kt. Gusts will diminish
after sunset this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/33

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251147
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
647 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers/thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across far
southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin this morning, thus have
included TEMPOs for KHOB, KMAF, and KINK through mid/late morning.
Brief reductions in visibility to MVFR are expected in heavy rain
if any storms pass over the terminals. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to prevail area-wide from this afternoon onward, with
southwest winds gusting up to around 20kt. Gusts will diminish
after sunset this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/33

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http://weather.gov/midland









000
FXUS64 KMAF 250941
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  59  90  63  /  30   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  63  91  68  /  40  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  91  57  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  93  63  93  71  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  60  93  66  /  20   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  57  82  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   82  55  88  60  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   78  43  85  52  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  59  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  86  61  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
WINK TX                    87  57  95  65  /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/33

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 250941
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  59  90  63  /  30   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  63  91  68  /  40  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  91  57  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  93  63  93  71  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  60  93  66  /  20   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  57  82  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   82  55  88  60  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   78  43  85  52  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  59  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  86  61  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
WINK TX                    87  57  95  65  /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/33

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 250941
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
441 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...As of 4:30 AM CDT Monday...Complicated forecast for
this morning into the early aftn. Water vapor imagery is indc a
potent shortwave in Northern Chihuahua rounding the base of the
trough in the southern Rockies. IR imagery is indc a baroclinic
leaf structure with rapidly cooling cloud tops in Southwest TX.
Convection has developed in the Plains north and east of the Davis
Mtns and in the Western and Southern Permian Basin. While
initially having a hard time getting going has now started to
intensify. Even though there is decent low level CIN...latest
Mesoscale Analysis is indc good MLCAPE and very steep mid level
lapse rates of 8C/KM. KMAF VAD Profile is indc a 40+ kt low level
southerly jet as well. The HRRR has been very consistent in
developing strong convection and moving it into the Permian Basin
and the Low Rolling Plains this morning. The HRRR is indc very
impressive rain rates along with training cells. SPC has the
Permian Basin and Low Rolling Plains in a slight risk with the
main severe threat large hail. This will continue to be monitored
thru the morning hours.

After passage of the shortwave low amplitude ridging will move
over the Southern Plains. This will bring dry weather tonight
thru Tuesday night. With H85 temps increasing along with downslope
low level winds temps should reach into the 90s across the Plains
with 80s in the mtns.

Yet another mid/upper low...currently near 28/143...will open into
a trough and will move in the subtropical jet to near northern
Baja by Wed morning. This will turn the mid/upper flow to
southwest and will allow low level moisture to stream into the CWA
from the Gulf of Mexico. Impulses moving in the flow aloft...
combined with the low level moist flow out of the Gulf of Mexico
will bring at least a chance of convection across most of the CWA
from Wednesday right thru next weekend as our wet pattern
continues.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  59  90  63  /  30   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              86  63  91  68  /  40  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  91  57  /  10   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  93  63  93  71  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  60  93  66  /  20   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  57  82  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   82  55  88  60  /  10  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   78  43  85  52  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  59  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                  86  61  92  66  /  30  10   0  10
WINK TX                    87  57  95  65  /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/33

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 250516
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...See 06Z Aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...The dryline is continuing to retreat northwest with
southeast winds now at KMAF. Expect VFR conditions for the next
several hours...with convection possible starting from the
southwest around 09-10Z...continuing into the morning hours. TAFs
and AFD will be updated as needed.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 250516
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...See 06Z Aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...The dryline is continuing to retreat northwest with
southeast winds now at KMAF. Expect VFR conditions for the next
several hours...with convection possible starting from the
southwest around 09-10Z...continuing into the morning hours. TAFs
and AFD will be updated as needed.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 250516
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...See 06Z Aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...The dryline is continuing to retreat northwest with
southeast winds now at KMAF. Expect VFR conditions for the next
several hours...with convection possible starting from the
southwest around 09-10Z...continuing into the morning hours. TAFs
and AFD will be updated as needed.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 250516
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1216 AM CDT Mon May 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...See 06Z Aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...The dryline is continuing to retreat northwest with
southeast winds now at KMAF. Expect VFR conditions for the next
several hours...with convection possible starting from the
southwest around 09-10Z...continuing into the morning hours. TAFs
and AFD will be updated as needed.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 242341
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with diminishing winds prevail across the area this
evening. Expect VFR conditions to continue through tomorrow
morning with winds backing to southeast shortly after 00Z at most
sites this evening. There is a 20 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms after midnight tonight, mainly east of a Midland to
Fort Stockton line. Have not mentioned these overnight as coverage
is expected to be fairly limited. As an upper level wave moves
through tonight into tomorrow, the dryline will again push east,
turning winds back to the west/northwest with gusts between 15
and 20 knots by late tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

Dryline has pushed east to near a Snyder to Sterling City to Ozona
line as of 3 PM, having cleared all of the Trans Pecos and most of
the Permian Basin late this afternoon. We are seeing a few cu
going up across Scurry and Mitchell counties and a few isolated
thunderstorms can not be ruled out for those areas, as well as
slightly farther west as the dryline begins to retreat this
evening. Better chance of storms will arrive late tonight,
probably closer to sunrise as a potent shortwave over Southern
California approaches the area. Both the TTU WRF and the GFS
developed convection very near or just east of Midland and expand
it across the eastern Permian Basin between 10Z and 15Z. Have
added PoPs for tonight and Monday morning across about the eastern
third of the area.

Dry 48 hours after that, but the same basic upper level pattern
holds. Large scale upper level trough axis across the Western US,
with a series of shortwaves rotating through. Lift from the next
system will begin to arrive Wednesday afternoon and expand across
much of the area for Wednesday Night through Friday. Models are very
aggressive with rain chances, but tried not to go quite that high
yet. However, given the models are holding a much sharper trough
axis across the Southern Rockies through the weekend, hard not to
keep some mention of showers and storms over a wide area for an
extended period of time.

Temperatures for the upcoming week are pretty unremarkable.
Warmest days will be on the dry days, where temperatures will
climb well into the 80s. Coolest days will be the days with the
higher rain chances when cloud cover will be more abundant.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 242341
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with diminishing winds prevail across the area this
evening. Expect VFR conditions to continue through tomorrow
morning with winds backing to southeast shortly after 00Z at most
sites this evening. There is a 20 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms after midnight tonight, mainly east of a Midland to
Fort Stockton line. Have not mentioned these overnight as coverage
is expected to be fairly limited. As an upper level wave moves
through tonight into tomorrow, the dryline will again push east,
turning winds back to the west/northwest with gusts between 15
and 20 knots by late tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

Dryline has pushed east to near a Snyder to Sterling City to Ozona
line as of 3 PM, having cleared all of the Trans Pecos and most of
the Permian Basin late this afternoon. We are seeing a few cu
going up across Scurry and Mitchell counties and a few isolated
thunderstorms can not be ruled out for those areas, as well as
slightly farther west as the dryline begins to retreat this
evening. Better chance of storms will arrive late tonight,
probably closer to sunrise as a potent shortwave over Southern
California approaches the area. Both the TTU WRF and the GFS
developed convection very near or just east of Midland and expand
it across the eastern Permian Basin between 10Z and 15Z. Have
added PoPs for tonight and Monday morning across about the eastern
third of the area.

Dry 48 hours after that, but the same basic upper level pattern
holds. Large scale upper level trough axis across the Western US,
with a series of shortwaves rotating through. Lift from the next
system will begin to arrive Wednesday afternoon and expand across
much of the area for Wednesday Night through Friday. Models are very
aggressive with rain chances, but tried not to go quite that high
yet. However, given the models are holding a much sharper trough
axis across the Southern Rockies through the weekend, hard not to
keep some mention of showers and storms over a wide area for an
extended period of time.

Temperatures for the upcoming week are pretty unremarkable.
Warmest days will be on the dry days, where temperatures will
climb well into the 80s. Coolest days will be the days with the
higher rain chances when cloud cover will be more abundant.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 242341
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with diminishing winds prevail across the area this
evening. Expect VFR conditions to continue through tomorrow
morning with winds backing to southeast shortly after 00Z at most
sites this evening. There is a 20 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms after midnight tonight, mainly east of a Midland to
Fort Stockton line. Have not mentioned these overnight as coverage
is expected to be fairly limited. As an upper level wave moves
through tonight into tomorrow, the dryline will again push east,
turning winds back to the west/northwest with gusts between 15
and 20 knots by late tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

Dryline has pushed east to near a Snyder to Sterling City to Ozona
line as of 3 PM, having cleared all of the Trans Pecos and most of
the Permian Basin late this afternoon. We are seeing a few cu
going up across Scurry and Mitchell counties and a few isolated
thunderstorms can not be ruled out for those areas, as well as
slightly farther west as the dryline begins to retreat this
evening. Better chance of storms will arrive late tonight,
probably closer to sunrise as a potent shortwave over Southern
California approaches the area. Both the TTU WRF and the GFS
developed convection very near or just east of Midland and expand
it across the eastern Permian Basin between 10Z and 15Z. Have
added PoPs for tonight and Monday morning across about the eastern
third of the area.

Dry 48 hours after that, but the same basic upper level pattern
holds. Large scale upper level trough axis across the Western US,
with a series of shortwaves rotating through. Lift from the next
system will begin to arrive Wednesday afternoon and expand across
much of the area for Wednesday Night through Friday. Models are very
aggressive with rain chances, but tried not to go quite that high
yet. However, given the models are holding a much sharper trough
axis across the Southern Rockies through the weekend, hard not to
keep some mention of showers and storms over a wide area for an
extended period of time.

Temperatures for the upcoming week are pretty unremarkable.
Warmest days will be on the dry days, where temperatures will
climb well into the 80s. Coolest days will be the days with the
higher rain chances when cloud cover will be more abundant.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 242341
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
641 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The 00Z aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with diminishing winds prevail across the area this
evening. Expect VFR conditions to continue through tomorrow
morning with winds backing to southeast shortly after 00Z at most
sites this evening. There is a 20 percent chance for showers and
thunderstorms after midnight tonight, mainly east of a Midland to
Fort Stockton line. Have not mentioned these overnight as coverage
is expected to be fairly limited. As an upper level wave moves
through tonight into tomorrow, the dryline will again push east,
turning winds back to the west/northwest with gusts between 15
and 20 knots by late tomorrow morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

Dryline has pushed east to near a Snyder to Sterling City to Ozona
line as of 3 PM, having cleared all of the Trans Pecos and most of
the Permian Basin late this afternoon. We are seeing a few cu
going up across Scurry and Mitchell counties and a few isolated
thunderstorms can not be ruled out for those areas, as well as
slightly farther west as the dryline begins to retreat this
evening. Better chance of storms will arrive late tonight,
probably closer to sunrise as a potent shortwave over Southern
California approaches the area. Both the TTU WRF and the GFS
developed convection very near or just east of Midland and expand
it across the eastern Permian Basin between 10Z and 15Z. Have
added PoPs for tonight and Monday morning across about the eastern
third of the area.

Dry 48 hours after that, but the same basic upper level pattern
holds. Large scale upper level trough axis across the Western US,
with a series of shortwaves rotating through. Lift from the next
system will begin to arrive Wednesday afternoon and expand across
much of the area for Wednesday Night through Friday. Models are very
aggressive with rain chances, but tried not to go quite that high
yet. However, given the models are holding a much sharper trough
axis across the Southern Rockies through the weekend, hard not to
keep some mention of showers and storms over a wide area for an
extended period of time.

Temperatures for the upcoming week are pretty unremarkable.
Warmest days will be on the dry days, where temperatures will
climb well into the 80s. Coolest days will be the days with the
higher rain chances when cloud cover will be more abundant.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 242042
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
342 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Dryline has pushed east to near a Snyder to Sterling City to Ozona
line as of 3 PM, having cleared all of the Trans Pecos and most of
the Permian Basin late this afternoon. We are seeing a few cu
going up across Scurry and Mitchell counties and a few isolated
thunderstorms can not be ruled out for those areas, as well as
slightly farther west as the dryline begins to retreat this
evening. Better chance of storms will arrive late tonight,
probably closer to sunrise as a potent shortwave over Southern
California approaches the area. Both the TTU WRF and the GFS
developed convection very near or just east of Midland and expand
it across the eastern Permian Basin between 10Z and 15Z. Have
added PoPs for tonight and Monday morning across about the eastern
third of the area.

Dry 48 hours after that, but the same basic upper level pattern
holds. Large scale upper level trough axis across the Western US,
with a series of shortwaves rotating through. Lift from the next
system will begin to arrive Wednesday afternoon and expand across
much of the area for Wednesday Night through Friday. Models are very
aggressive with rain chances, but tried not to go quite that high
yet. However, given the models are holding a much sharper trough
axis across the Southern Rockies through the weekend, hard not to
keep some mention of showers and storms over a wide area for an
extended period of time.

Temperatures for the upcoming week are pretty unremarkable.
Warmest days will be on the dry days, where temperatures will
climb well into the 80s. Coolest days will be the days with the
higher rain chances when cloud cover will be more abundant.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  82  59  88  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              60  84  61  89  /  20  30  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                54  85  51  90  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  64  88  66  93  /  20  30  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  85  60  91  /  20  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  71  56  76  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  81  54  86  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   51  76  45  82  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  84  60  89  /  20  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  56  84  61  89  /  10  20  10   0
WINK TX                    57  85  57  92  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 242042
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
342 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Dryline has pushed east to near a Snyder to Sterling City to Ozona
line as of 3 PM, having cleared all of the Trans Pecos and most of
the Permian Basin late this afternoon. We are seeing a few cu
going up across Scurry and Mitchell counties and a few isolated
thunderstorms can not be ruled out for those areas, as well as
slightly farther west as the dryline begins to retreat this
evening. Better chance of storms will arrive late tonight,
probably closer to sunrise as a potent shortwave over Southern
California approaches the area. Both the TTU WRF and the GFS
developed convection very near or just east of Midland and expand
it across the eastern Permian Basin between 10Z and 15Z. Have
added PoPs for tonight and Monday morning across about the eastern
third of the area.

Dry 48 hours after that, but the same basic upper level pattern
holds. Large scale upper level trough axis across the Western US,
with a series of shortwaves rotating through. Lift from the next
system will begin to arrive Wednesday afternoon and expand across
much of the area for Wednesday Night through Friday. Models are very
aggressive with rain chances, but tried not to go quite that high
yet. However, given the models are holding a much sharper trough
axis across the Southern Rockies through the weekend, hard not to
keep some mention of showers and storms over a wide area for an
extended period of time.

Temperatures for the upcoming week are pretty unremarkable.
Warmest days will be on the dry days, where temperatures will
climb well into the 80s. Coolest days will be the days with the
higher rain chances when cloud cover will be more abundant.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 53  82  59  88  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              60  84  61  89  /  20  30  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                54  85  51  90  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  64  88  66  93  /  20  30  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  85  60  91  /  20  20   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          50  71  56  76  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  81  54  86  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   51  76  45  82  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  84  60  89  /  20  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  56  84  61  89  /  10  20  10   0
WINK TX                    57  85  57  92  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241727
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1227 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Permian Basin for the
remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Gusty west
winds will subside after sunset. Next storm system will approach
late tonight and may bring convection to portions of the area
before 12Z, but looks to remain east of any of the terminals for
now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected as dry southwest winds develop this
morning. Wind gusts to 20 KTS possible mid morning through sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241727
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1227 PM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Permian Basin for the
remainder of the afternoon and into the evening hours. Gusty west
winds will subside after sunset. Next storm system will approach
late tonight and may bring convection to portions of the area
before 12Z, but looks to remain east of any of the terminals for
now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected as dry southwest winds develop this
morning. Wind gusts to 20 KTS possible mid morning through sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241150
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected as dry southwest winds develop this
morning. Wind gusts to 20 KTS possible mid morning through sunset.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241150
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected as dry southwest winds develop this
morning. Wind gusts to 20 KTS possible mid morning through sunset.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241150
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected as dry southwest winds develop this
morning. Wind gusts to 20 KTS possible mid morning through sunset.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241150
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
650 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015


.DISCUSSION...
The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected as dry southwest winds develop this
morning. Wind gusts to 20 KTS possible mid morning through sunset.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX/

DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
507 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  56  85  59  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              86  62  86  61  /  20  10  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  86  54  /   0   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  91  65  90  66  /  10  10  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  59  88  60  /  10  10  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  55  80  59  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  51  82  53  /  10   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   80  43  82  45  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  61  87  60  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  85  61  86  61  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    88  55  89  57  /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99/99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
507 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  56  85  59  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              86  62  86  61  /  20  10  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  86  54  /   0   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  91  65  90  66  /  10  10  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  59  88  60  /  10  10  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  55  80  59  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  51  82  53  /  10   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   80  43  82  45  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  61  87  60  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  85  61  86  61  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    88  55  89  57  /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99/99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241007
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
507 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A few thunderstorms continue east of a Crane to Big Spring line
early this morning. Expect these storms to head east out of the
area by mid morning. Will allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at
7 am...as the heavy rain threat should be over for today. The
upper shortwave trough responsible for storms yesterday should
head east out of the area today...with warmer temperatures
expected. Have continued with isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening...but not expecting any significant
rainfall. Could see some breezy conditions for the afternoon,
especially in higher elevations.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area on Monday as a
dryline sharpens over the area. Will see scattered thunderstorms
return to eastern areas Monday afternoon and evening...with a few
severe storms possible. Weak ridging aloft for Tuesday and
Wednesday with more seasonal temperatures, before another trough
heads in by mid to late week. Will continue with a chance of rain
and thunderstorms for mid to late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 83  56  85  59  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              86  62  86  61  /  20  10  30  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  53  86  54  /   0   0  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  91  65  90  66  /  10  10  30  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  59  88  60  /  10  10  20   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          77  55  80  59  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  51  82  53  /  10   0  10   0
MARFA TX                   80  43  82  45  /  10   0  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  61  87  60  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  85  61  86  61  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    88  55  89  57  /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

99/99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 240641
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few showers/thunderstorms continue across southwest Texas
tonight, and could impact KFST within the first couple of hours of
the TAF period, resulting in brief reductions in visibility due to
heavy rainfall. The storms look to remain south of other TAF sites
tonight. One other concern is that MVFR fog/low ceiling
development, mainly affecting KMAF, KINK, and KHOB late tonight
and early Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
all TAF sites after 12Z Sunday, with winds veering to the
southwest. Breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon,
with some gusts to around 20 kt possible, though gusts will
rapidly diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones/grids as Tornado Watch has expired. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect tonight with redevelopment of rain
possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 240641
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few showers/thunderstorms continue across southwest Texas
tonight, and could impact KFST within the first couple of hours of
the TAF period, resulting in brief reductions in visibility due to
heavy rainfall. The storms look to remain south of other TAF sites
tonight. One other concern is that MVFR fog/low ceiling
development, mainly affecting KMAF, KINK, and KHOB late tonight
and early Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
all TAF sites after 12Z Sunday, with winds veering to the
southwest. Breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon,
with some gusts to around 20 kt possible, though gusts will
rapidly diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones/grids as Tornado Watch has expired. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect tonight with redevelopment of rain
possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 240641
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few showers/thunderstorms continue across southwest Texas
tonight, and could impact KFST within the first couple of hours of
the TAF period, resulting in brief reductions in visibility due to
heavy rainfall. The storms look to remain south of other TAF sites
tonight. One other concern is that MVFR fog/low ceiling
development, mainly affecting KMAF, KINK, and KHOB late tonight
and early Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
all TAF sites after 12Z Sunday, with winds veering to the
southwest. Breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon,
with some gusts to around 20 kt possible, though gusts will
rapidly diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones/grids as Tornado Watch has expired. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect tonight with redevelopment of rain
possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 240641
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
141 AM CDT Sun May 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few showers/thunderstorms continue across southwest Texas
tonight, and could impact KFST within the first couple of hours of
the TAF period, resulting in brief reductions in visibility due to
heavy rainfall. The storms look to remain south of other TAF sites
tonight. One other concern is that MVFR fog/low ceiling
development, mainly affecting KMAF, KINK, and KHOB late tonight
and early Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across
all TAF sites after 12Z Sunday, with winds veering to the
southwest. Breezy conditions are expected through the afternoon,
with some gusts to around 20 kt possible, though gusts will
rapidly diminish after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast.

DISCUSSION...
Updated zones/grids as Tornado Watch has expired. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect tonight with redevelopment of rain
possible.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 240231
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
931 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones/grids as Tornado Watch has expired. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect tonight with redevelopment of rain
possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  83  56  85  /  50  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              61  86  62  86  /  60  20  10  40
CARLSBAD NM                50  86  53  86  /  20   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  63  91  65  90  /  60  10  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  88  59  88  /  50  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  77  55  80  /  20   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   53  80  51  82  /  30  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   47  80  43  82  /  30   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  86  61  87  /  50  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  62  85  61  86  /  50  10  10  20
WINK TX                    58  88  55  89  /  40  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 240231
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
931 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Updated zones/grids as Tornado Watch has expired. A Flash Flood
Watch remains in effect tonight with redevelopment of rain
possible.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms will continue to move east/northeastward over west
Texas this evening, while southeast New Mexico will likely stay
dry.  It appears KMAF may be the only terminal affected by these
storms through perhaps 24/02Z. Thereafter, expect VFR conditions
to prevail, except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings and
visibility in fog at KHOB, KMAF and possibly KINK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

UPDATE...

Update for Tornado Watch number 196 until 24/02Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 109 PM CDT Sat May 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms have developed over the Big Bend region this morning,
with additional storms beginning to form in and near the Davis
Mountains early this afternoon. Some of these storms are expected
to become severe, in addition to producing locally heavy rainfall.
Later this afternoon and tonight, expect thunderstorms to become
more widespread, especially over the Trans Pecos, Permian Basin
and into the Western Low Rolling Plains and Lower Trans Pecos.
Severe storms will be possible in these areas, but the threat of
heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be most pronounced in these
areas.

A large upper low will gradually translate northeastward into
Colorado overnight while a shortwave trough at the base of this
upper low moves over the region.  Height falls associated with the
upper low/southern shortwave trough will serve to keep low level
moisture over west Texas through tonight, and along with appreciable
mid and upper level moisture keep PWats at 1-1.5 inches, or 1-2
standard deviations above normal.  As synoptic scale lift increases
over the area later this afternoon/tonight, the RRQ of an upper jet
will provide ventilation for convection which should allow
thunderstorms to flourish along and east of a surface trough/dryline
as it moves east over the area tonight.  SBCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg
will provide fuel for thunderstorm development, while 0 to 6Km shear
of 40-50Kt and marginal mid level lapse rates near 7 C/Km will
likely yield storms producing large hail, damaging winds, a tornado
or two, and heavy rainfall.  The severe threat will continue after
sunset, thanks in part to a low level jet increasing over the region
along with favorable divergence aloft.  These features will also
enhance the threat of heavy rainfall into the late night hours.  A
secondary round of convection, or training of cells may also occur,
especially over the eastern most counties of the forecast area.
Therefore, will extend the current Flash Flood Watch (FFA) until
24/12Z.  The converse is expected for the western most counties
included in the FFA, namely Gaines, Andrews, Winkler and Ward.
Think convection will be too sparse this afternoon and evening for
widespread heavy rainfall, so will trim these counties from the
watch.

After the shortwave trough moves by early Sunday morning, think
Sunday will be fairly quiescent, but just a bit breezy with a
drying southwesterly winds and temperatures rising to near normal.
However, a shortwave trough rounding the back and southern side of
the departing upper low will head toward the region, with
height/surface pressure falls drawing moisture back into the area
and a surface trough/dryline sharpening over the area on Monday.
Will keep a chance of thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly over the
eastern half of the CWA.  Some of these storms could be strong, if
not severe, as instability, shear and lapse rates will be
favorable.  But the timing of the shortwave trough may be such that
convection starts early in the day, which could temper the severity
of storms.  Fairly weak westerly flow aloft, or weak upper ridging,
will then prevail over the region Tuesday into Wednesday which
portends dry and seasonably warm temperatures.  However, another
upper trough will take shape over the western ConUS, head east and
give the region another chance of rain from Wednesday night through
Friday.  Temperatures look to be seasonably warm during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  83  56  85  /  50  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              61  86  62  86  /  60  20  10  40
CARLSBAD NM                50  86  53  86  /  20   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  63  91  65  90  /  60  10  10  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  88  59  88  /  50  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          51  77  55  80  /  20   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   53  80  51  82  /  30  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   47  80  43  82  /  30   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  86  61  87  /  50  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  62  85  61  86  /  50  10  10  20
WINK TX                    58  88  55  89  /  40  10   0  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Borden...Crane...Dawson...Ector...Glasscock...
     Howard...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...
     Scurry...Terrell...Upton.


&&

$$

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