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000
FXUS64 KMAF 011930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows the broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS has moved north over the
past 24 hrs.  As a result, fairly benign wx will persist over the
next week, w/rain chances slim to none aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.  Models also develop
convection in the Rio Grande Valley over the next couple of days,
and try and bring it into the lwr Trans Pecos, but not by much.

Models are similar to 24 hrs ago in developing the upper ridge into
the Gulf Coast region over the next few days, w/temps on the decline
after this afternoon as thicknesses decrease as the ridge moves
east.  Models still exhibit Significant differences in the strength
of the thermal ridge over the next few days.  The NAM remains the
coldest outlier, and appears to cool things off too quickly, and has
been running a bit cool the past few days.  The CMC and ARW came in
the warmest, w/the GFS, ECMWF, and NMM holding the middle ground.
W/the warmer solutions panning out the past few days, we`ve opted to
lean towards the warmer side of guidance.

Upper ridge is forecast to set up shop over the SE CONUS most of the
week, then build back west beginning Friday.  However, models
persist in bringing back a much weaker version than what`s over us
at the moment.  Temps should drop to just a notch above normal by
midweek, and stay there thru the weekend.  Big difference in the
extended models today is a cold front approaching the area Saturday
night.  The GFS stalls this feature in the Wrn Low Rolling Plains,
whereas the ECMWF brings it further into the CWA.  The 00Z ECMWF was
more confident in bringing it all the way to the Rio Grande, whereas
the latest run is more in line w/the GFS.  Models tend to be rather
obstreperous w/the first few cold fronts this time of year, so it
wouldn`t be surprising if the front didn`t make it into the FA at
all, and stalled or dissipated further north.  Finally, a glance at
NAEFS standardized anomalies for Sunday suggest the GFS is the
better solution.  Thus, we`ve leaned toward the warmer GFS, w/no
front.  If the front does make it as far as the GFS suggests, the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains may need some convection added Saturday
night.  For the time being, we`ll keep the grids dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74 100  72  94  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75 100  74  94  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69 103  74  97  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  78  99  77  93  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75 102  73  93  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          74  98  68  90  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   68 100  69  94  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  93  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    76 100  74  93  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  77  99  74  94  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    77 106  75  99  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 011930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows the broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS has moved north over the
past 24 hrs.  As a result, fairly benign wx will persist over the
next week, w/rain chances slim to none aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.  Models also develop
convection in the Rio Grande Valley over the next couple of days,
and try and bring it into the lwr Trans Pecos, but not by much.

Models are similar to 24 hrs ago in developing the upper ridge into
the Gulf Coast region over the next few days, w/temps on the decline
after this afternoon as thicknesses decrease as the ridge moves
east.  Models still exhibit Significant differences in the strength
of the thermal ridge over the next few days.  The NAM remains the
coldest outlier, and appears to cool things off too quickly, and has
been running a bit cool the past few days.  The CMC and ARW came in
the warmest, w/the GFS, ECMWF, and NMM holding the middle ground.
W/the warmer solutions panning out the past few days, we`ve opted to
lean towards the warmer side of guidance.

Upper ridge is forecast to set up shop over the SE CONUS most of the
week, then build back west beginning Friday.  However, models
persist in bringing back a much weaker version than what`s over us
at the moment.  Temps should drop to just a notch above normal by
midweek, and stay there thru the weekend.  Big difference in the
extended models today is a cold front approaching the area Saturday
night.  The GFS stalls this feature in the Wrn Low Rolling Plains,
whereas the ECMWF brings it further into the CWA.  The 00Z ECMWF was
more confident in bringing it all the way to the Rio Grande, whereas
the latest run is more in line w/the GFS.  Models tend to be rather
obstreperous w/the first few cold fronts this time of year, so it
wouldn`t be surprising if the front didn`t make it into the FA at
all, and stalled or dissipated further north.  Finally, a glance at
NAEFS standardized anomalies for Sunday suggest the GFS is the
better solution.  Thus, we`ve leaned toward the warmer GFS, w/no
front.  If the front does make it as far as the GFS suggests, the
Wrn Low Rolling Plains may need some convection added Saturday
night.  For the time being, we`ll keep the grids dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74 100  72  94  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75 100  74  94  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69 103  74  97  /   0   0   0  10
DRYDEN TX                  78  99  77  93  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75 102  73  93  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          74  98  68  90  /   0   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                   68 100  69  94  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  93  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    76 100  74  93  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  77  99  74  94  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                    77 106  75  99  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 011652
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are expected the next 24
hours. South to southwest winds of 5 to 15 mph this afternoon
will become southeast at 10 to 20 mph and gusty tonight at
the west Texas terminals. Winds at the southeastern New Mexico
terminals will be lighter and more variable overnight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds through the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough moving across the northern plains will have
little effect on a strong high pressure ridge over the region.  This
ridge extends from the Pacific to the Atlantic and is responsible
for the current hot wx.  However by midweek the next upper trough
will dig down the West Coast and help the upper ridge to slide
east.  This will result in cooling temperatures for W TX and SE NM.

The first day of September will be unusually hot.  Normal high
temperatures for the Permian Basin for this time of year have fallen
to the lower 90s... however expect most of the region to be at or
above 100 degrees today.  Should reach or exceed 105 degrees for the
Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.  This heat is due to a thermal ridge
extending along the TX/NM line southward to the Rio Grande.  Eta
shows 850 temps will be about the same today as yesterday so expect
near persistence temps.  Went at or above yesterdays highs for today
due to residual heat as overnight temps slow to cool off.  Should be
a couple degrees cooler Tuesday as thermal axis farther west.
Latest MEX guidance has come in cooler Wed through Fri than previous
runs.  Have trended temps down in the extended.

Strong subsidence Sunday resulted in few clouds over the plains and
only a few light showers over northern Brewster county.  Models
continue to develop a few afternoon storms over the Davis mtns...
Marfa Plateau... and northern Big Bend so will leave the isolated
pops in today and Tuesday.  Rest of the forecast is dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  98  71  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  98  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               105  70 102  70  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                 104  77 101  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          102  74  99  73  /   0  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          97  71  95  69  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                  100  69  98  68  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   94  59  92  58  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  98  73  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                 100  75  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   105  74 103  73  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 011120
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough moving across the northern plains will have
little effect on a strong high pressure ridge over the region.  This
ridge extends from the Pacific to the Atlantic and is responsible
for the current hot wx.  However by midweek the next upper trough
will dig down the West Coast and help the upper ridge to slide
east.  This will result in cooling temperatures for W TX and SE NM.

The first day of September will be unusually hot.  Normal high
temperatures for the Permian Basin for this time of year have fallen
to the lower 90s... however expect most of the region to be at or
above 100 degrees today.  Should reach or exceed 105 degrees for the
Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.  This heat is due to a thermal ridge
extending along the TX/NM line southward to the Rio Grande.  Eta
shows 850 temps will be about the same today as yesterday so expect
near persistence temps.  Went at or above yesterdays highs for today
due to residual heat as overnight temps slow to cool off.  Should be
a couple degrees cooler Tuesday as thermal axis farther west.
Latest MEX guidance has come in cooler Wed through Fri than previous
runs.  Have trended temps down in the extended.

Strong subsidence Sunday resulted in few clouds over the plains and
only a few light showers over northern Brewster county.  Models
continue to develop a few afternoon storms over the Davis mtns...
Marfa Plateau... and northern Big Bend so will leave the isolated
pops in today and Tuesday.  Rest of the forecast is dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 010856
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
356 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough moving across the northern plains will have
little effect on a strong high pressure ridge over the region.  This
ridge extends from the Pacific to the Atlantic and is responsible
for the current hot wx.  However by midweek the next upper trough
will dig down the West Coast and help the upper ridge to slide
east.  This will result in cooling temperatures for W TX and SE NM.

The first day of September will be unusually hot.  Normal high
temperatures for the Permian Basin for this time of year have fallen
to the lower 90s... however expect most of the region to be at or
above 100 degrees today.  Should reach or exceed 105 degrees for the
Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.  This heat is due to a thermal ridge
extending along the TX/NM line southward to the Rio Grande.  Eta
shows 850 temps will be about the same today as yesterday so expect
near persistence temps.  Went at or above yesterdays highs for today
due to residual heat as overnight temps slow to cool off.  Should be
a couple degrees cooler Tuesday as thermal axis farther west.
Latest MEX guidance has come in cooler Wed through Fri than previous
runs.  Have trended temps down in the extended.

Strong subsidence Sunday resulted in few clouds over the plains and
only a few light showers over northern Brewster county.  Models
continue to develop a few afternoon storms over the Davis mtns...
Marfa Plateau... and northern Big Bend so will leave the isolated
pops in today and Tuesday.  Rest of the forecast is dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  98  71  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  98  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               105  70 102  70  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                 104  77 101  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          102  74  99  73  /   0  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          97  71  95  69  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                  100  69  98  68  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   94  59  92  58  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  98  73  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                 100  75  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   105  74 103  73  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 010856
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
356 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A broad upper trough moving across the northern plains will have
little effect on a strong high pressure ridge over the region.  This
ridge extends from the Pacific to the Atlantic and is responsible
for the current hot wx.  However by midweek the next upper trough
will dig down the West Coast and help the upper ridge to slide
east.  This will result in cooling temperatures for W TX and SE NM.

The first day of September will be unusually hot.  Normal high
temperatures for the Permian Basin for this time of year have fallen
to the lower 90s... however expect most of the region to be at or
above 100 degrees today.  Should reach or exceed 105 degrees for the
Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys.  This heat is due to a thermal ridge
extending along the TX/NM line southward to the Rio Grande.  Eta
shows 850 temps will be about the same today as yesterday so expect
near persistence temps.  Went at or above yesterdays highs for today
due to residual heat as overnight temps slow to cool off.  Should be
a couple degrees cooler Tuesday as thermal axis farther west.
Latest MEX guidance has come in cooler Wed through Fri than previous
runs.  Have trended temps down in the extended.

Strong subsidence Sunday resulted in few clouds over the plains and
only a few light showers over northern Brewster county.  Models
continue to develop a few afternoon storms over the Davis mtns...
Marfa Plateau... and northern Big Bend so will leave the isolated
pops in today and Tuesday.  Rest of the forecast is dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  98  71  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  98  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               105  70 102  70  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                 104  77 101  76  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          102  74  99  73  /   0  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          97  71  95  69  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                  100  69  98  68  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   94  59  92  58  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  98  73  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                 100  75  99  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                   105  74 103  73  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 010524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. Modest south winds with
occasional gusts can also be expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows a broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS, which will result in
fairly benign wx over the next week, aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.

Labor Day looks to be the warmest day this forecast, as the ridge
begins building/shifting east towards the Gulf Coast.  Models
maximize 500-1000mb thicknesses by 00Z Tuesday as the ridge passes
over, resulting in H85 temps over the Permian basin in excess of 30C,
for widespread triple-digit temps across West Texas/SE NM.  The NAM
usually handles this pretty well, but today it is an outlier, and
coldest of all models over the next couple of days.  Thus, we`ve
cottoned onto the GFS/ECMWF in the short-term, which are in better
agreement/in line w/the ARW/NMM/CMC.  Ridge keeps building into the
SE CONUS thru at least Thursday, then begins shifting back west.
However, models forecast a much weaker ridge as it returns by the
weekend, keeping temps each day closer to (but still above) normal.
Both the GFS and ECMWF even try to bring a cold front into the area
Saturday night, and a chance of convection may need to be added
later in the week if this pans out.  For temps in the extended, the
ECMWF is the coolest, and we`ve opted to lean towards the GFS, which
the DGEX and CMC are in better agreement with.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 010524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period. Modest south winds with
occasional gusts can also be expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows a broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS, which will result in
fairly benign wx over the next week, aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.

Labor Day looks to be the warmest day this forecast, as the ridge
begins building/shifting east towards the Gulf Coast.  Models
maximize 500-1000mb thicknesses by 00Z Tuesday as the ridge passes
over, resulting in H85 temps over the Permian basin in excess of 30C,
for widespread triple-digit temps across West Texas/SE NM.  The NAM
usually handles this pretty well, but today it is an outlier, and
coldest of all models over the next couple of days.  Thus, we`ve
cottoned onto the GFS/ECMWF in the short-term, which are in better
agreement/in line w/the ARW/NMM/CMC.  Ridge keeps building into the
SE CONUS thru at least Thursday, then begins shifting back west.
However, models forecast a much weaker ridge as it returns by the
weekend, keeping temps each day closer to (but still above) normal.
Both the GFS and ECMWF even try to bring a cold front into the area
Saturday night, and a chance of convection may need to be added
later in the week if this pans out.  For temps in the extended, the
ECMWF is the coolest, and we`ve opted to lean towards the GFS, which
the DGEX and CMC are in better agreement with.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 312351
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
651 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 01/00Z forecast discussion below.  Thanks.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail UFN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows a broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS, which will result in
fairly benign wx over the next week, aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.

Labor Day looks to be the warmest day this forecast, as the ridge
begins building/shifting east towards the Gulf Coast.  Models
maximize 500-1000mb thicknesses by 00Z Tuesday as the ridge passes
over, resulting in H85 temps over the Permian basin in excess of 30C,
for widespread triple-digit temps across West Texas/SE NM.  The NAM
usually handles this pretty well, but today it is an outlier, and
coldest of all models over the next couple of days.  Thus, we`ve
cottoned onto the GFS/ECMWF in the short-term, which are in better
agreement/in line w/the ARW/NMM/CMC.  Ridge keeps building into the
SE CONUS thru at least Thursday, then begins shifting back west.
However, models forecast a much weaker ridge as it returns by the
weekend, keeping temps each day closer to (but still above) normal.
Both the GFS and ECMWF even try to bring a cold front into the area
Saturday night, and a chance of convection may need to be added
later in the week if this pans out.  For temps in the extended, the
ECMWF is the coolest, and we`ve opted to lean towards the GFS, which
the DGEX and CMC are in better agreement with.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 312351
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
651 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 01/00Z forecast discussion below.  Thanks.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail UFN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows a broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS, which will result in
fairly benign wx over the next week, aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.

Labor Day looks to be the warmest day this forecast, as the ridge
begins building/shifting east towards the Gulf Coast.  Models
maximize 500-1000mb thicknesses by 00Z Tuesday as the ridge passes
over, resulting in H85 temps over the Permian basin in excess of 30C,
for widespread triple-digit temps across West Texas/SE NM.  The NAM
usually handles this pretty well, but today it is an outlier, and
coldest of all models over the next couple of days.  Thus, we`ve
cottoned onto the GFS/ECMWF in the short-term, which are in better
agreement/in line w/the ARW/NMM/CMC.  Ridge keeps building into the
SE CONUS thru at least Thursday, then begins shifting back west.
However, models forecast a much weaker ridge as it returns by the
weekend, keeping temps each day closer to (but still above) normal.
Both the GFS and ECMWF even try to bring a cold front into the area
Saturday night, and a chance of convection may need to be added
later in the week if this pans out.  For temps in the extended, the
ECMWF is the coolest, and we`ve opted to lean towards the GFS, which
the DGEX and CMC are in better agreement with.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 311930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows a broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS, which will result in
fairly benign wx over the next week, aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.

Labor Day looks to be the warmest day this forecast, as the ridge
begins building/shifting east towards the Gulf Coast.  Models
maximize 500-1000mb thicknesses by 00Z Tuesday as the ridge passes
over, resulting in H85 temps over the Permian basin in excess of 30C,
for widespread triple-digit temps across West Texas/SE NM.  The NAM
usually handles this pretty well, but today it is an outlier, and
coldest of all models over the next couple of days.  Thus, we`ve
cottoned onto the GFS/ECMWF in the short-term, which are in better
agreement/in line w/the ARW/NMM/CMC.  Ridge keeps building into the
SE CONUS thru at least Thursday, then begins shifting back west.
However, models forecast a much weaker ridge as it returns by the
weekend, keeping temps each day closer to (but still above) normal.
Both the GFS and ECMWF even try to bring a cold front into the area
Saturday night, and a chance of convection may need to be added
later in the week if this pans out.  For temps in the extended, the
ECMWF is the coolest, and we`ve opted to lean towards the GFS, which
the DGEX and CMC are in better agreement with.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73 101  74  99  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              74 102  75  99  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                71 103  72 103  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  76  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           75 103  76 100  /   0   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  98  73  95  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   69 102  69 100  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   59  94  61  93  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74 102  76  99  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  74 101  76 100  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    74 105  76 104  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 311930
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
230 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change to the current forecast.  WV shows a broad,
flat/elongated upper ridge extending from the Pacific to the
Atlantic and covering the southern CONUS, which will result in
fairly benign wx over the next week, aside from isolated
afternoon/evening convection in the Davis Mtns.

Labor Day looks to be the warmest day this forecast, as the ridge
begins building/shifting east towards the Gulf Coast.  Models
maximize 500-1000mb thicknesses by 00Z Tuesday as the ridge passes
over, resulting in H85 temps over the Permian basin in excess of 30C,
for widespread triple-digit temps across West Texas/SE NM.  The NAM
usually handles this pretty well, but today it is an outlier, and
coldest of all models over the next couple of days.  Thus, we`ve
cottoned onto the GFS/ECMWF in the short-term, which are in better
agreement/in line w/the ARW/NMM/CMC.  Ridge keeps building into the
SE CONUS thru at least Thursday, then begins shifting back west.
However, models forecast a much weaker ridge as it returns by the
weekend, keeping temps each day closer to (but still above) normal.
Both the GFS and ECMWF even try to bring a cold front into the area
Saturday night, and a chance of convection may need to be added
later in the week if this pans out.  For temps in the extended, the
ECMWF is the coolest, and we`ve opted to lean towards the GFS, which
the DGEX and CMC are in better agreement with.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 73 101  74  99  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              74 102  75  99  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                71 103  72 103  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  76  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           75 103  76 100  /   0   0  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  98  73  95  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   69 102  69 100  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   59  94  61  93  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74 102  76  99  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  74 101  76 100  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    74 105  76 104  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 311704
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are expected the next
24 hours. Winds will generally be southeast at 5 to 15 mph
and gusty at times.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge remains over the southern portion of the
country this morning extending from the Pacific to the Atlantic. An
upper trough extending down across the Northern Rockies will slowly
swing east across the plains with the upper ridge actually
strengthening from CA to GA early in the week.  Another upper trough
moving onto the West Coast by midweek will begin to displace the
center of the ridge to the east but not be able to dislodge it.

Expect to see hot days and warm nights through Tuesday.  The 850mb
thermal ridge will be centered over the western CWA with temps of
28-31C/82-88F producing surface temps near or over the Century Mark
for most of the region.  Monday looks to be the hottest day of the
week with temps slowly beginning to decrease by midweek returning to
near normal by the weekend.

The wind will remain southerly most of the week but models do try to
briefly bring a weak front/wind shift into the northern CWA... not
expecting much if any cooling with it.  Southerly flow will help
keep the lower levels moist with dewpts in the 50s and 60s.  Did
have a few storms skirt the eastern CWA yesterday but expecting even
less coverage today.  Overall rain chances on the decrease... may be
a few storms over the mtns as good moisture... daytime heating and
orographic lift combine.  Most of the region will see no rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  71 100  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              99  74 101  76  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  69 104  68  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 102  79  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  72 101  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          94  70  95  70  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   99  67 100  66  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   92  60  93  61  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73 100  74  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  73 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  72 104  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 311704
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1204 PM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are expected the next
24 hours. Winds will generally be southeast at 5 to 15 mph
and gusty at times.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge remains over the southern portion of the
country this morning extending from the Pacific to the Atlantic. An
upper trough extending down across the Northern Rockies will slowly
swing east across the plains with the upper ridge actually
strengthening from CA to GA early in the week.  Another upper trough
moving onto the West Coast by midweek will begin to displace the
center of the ridge to the east but not be able to dislodge it.

Expect to see hot days and warm nights through Tuesday.  The 850mb
thermal ridge will be centered over the western CWA with temps of
28-31C/82-88F producing surface temps near or over the Century Mark
for most of the region.  Monday looks to be the hottest day of the
week with temps slowly beginning to decrease by midweek returning to
near normal by the weekend.

The wind will remain southerly most of the week but models do try to
briefly bring a weak front/wind shift into the northern CWA... not
expecting much if any cooling with it.  Southerly flow will help
keep the lower levels moist with dewpts in the 50s and 60s.  Did
have a few storms skirt the eastern CWA yesterday but expecting even
less coverage today.  Overall rain chances on the decrease... may be
a few storms over the mtns as good moisture... daytime heating and
orographic lift combine.  Most of the region will see no rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  71 100  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              99  74 101  76  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  69 104  68  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 102  79  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  72 101  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          94  70  95  70  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   99  67 100  66  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   92  60  93  61  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73 100  74  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  73 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  72 104  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 311117
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge remains over the southern portion of the
country this morning extending from the Pacific to the Atlantic. An
upper trough extending down across the Northern Rockies will slowly
swing east across the plains with the upper ridge actually
strengthening from CA to GA early in the week.  Another upper trough
moving onto the West Coast by midweek will begin to displace the
center of the ridge to the east but not be able to dislodge it.

Expect to see hot days and warm nights through Tuesday.  The 850mb
thermal ridge will be centered over the western CWA with temps of
28-31C/82-88F producing surface temps near or over the Century Mark
for most of the region.  Monday looks to be the hottest day of the
week with temps slowly beginning to decrease by midweek returning to
near normal by the weekend.

The wind will remain southerly most of the week but models do try to
briefly bring a weak front/wind shift into the northern CWA... not
expecting much if any cooling with it.  Southerly flow will help
keep the lower levels moist with dewpts in the 50s and 60s.  Did
have a few storms skirt the eastern CWA yesterday but expecting even
less coverage today.  Overall rain chances on the decrease... may be
a few storms over the mtns as good moisture... daytime heating and
orographic lift combine.  Most of the region will see no rain.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 311117
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light south winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge remains over the southern portion of the
country this morning extending from the Pacific to the Atlantic. An
upper trough extending down across the Northern Rockies will slowly
swing east across the plains with the upper ridge actually
strengthening from CA to GA early in the week.  Another upper trough
moving onto the West Coast by midweek will begin to displace the
center of the ridge to the east but not be able to dislodge it.

Expect to see hot days and warm nights through Tuesday.  The 850mb
thermal ridge will be centered over the western CWA with temps of
28-31C/82-88F producing surface temps near or over the Century Mark
for most of the region.  Monday looks to be the hottest day of the
week with temps slowly beginning to decrease by midweek returning to
near normal by the weekend.

The wind will remain southerly most of the week but models do try to
briefly bring a weak front/wind shift into the northern CWA... not
expecting much if any cooling with it.  Southerly flow will help
keep the lower levels moist with dewpts in the 50s and 60s.  Did
have a few storms skirt the eastern CWA yesterday but expecting even
less coverage today.  Overall rain chances on the decrease... may be
a few storms over the mtns as good moisture... daytime heating and
orographic lift combine.  Most of the region will see no rain.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 310833
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
333 AM CDT Sun Aug 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The subtropical ridge remains over the southern portion of the
country this morning extending from the Pacific to the Atlantic. An
upper trough extending down across the Northern Rockies will slowly
swing east across the plains with the upper ridge actually
strengthening from CA to GA early in the week.  Another upper trough
moving onto the West Coast by midweek will begin to displace the
center of the ridge to the east but not be able to dislodge it.

Expect to see hot days and warm nights through Tuesday.  The 850mb
thermal ridge will be centered over the western CWA with temps of
28-31C/82-88F producing surface temps near or over the Century Mark
for most of the region.  Monday looks to be the hottest day of the
week with temps slowly beginning to decrease by midweek returning to
near normal by the weekend.

The wind will remain southerly most of the week but models do try to
briefly bring a weak front/wind shift into the northern CWA... not
expecting much if any cooling with it.  Southerly flow will help
keep the lower levels moist with dewpts in the 50s and 60s.  Did
have a few storms skirt the eastern CWA yesterday but expecting even
less coverage today.  Overall rain chances on the decrease... may be
a few storms over the mtns as good moisture... daytime heating and
orographic lift combine.  Most of the region will see no rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  71 100  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              99  74 101  76  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  69 104  68  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                 102  76 102  79  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  72 101  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          94  70  95  70  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   99  67 100  66  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   92  60  93  61  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73 100  74  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  73 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  72 104  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 310200
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
900 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Please see the evening forecast update below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection down across the lower Trans Pecos has diminished with
loss of sensible heating. It`s possible, however, that one or two
more cells might pop up along an outflow boundary extending from
the Big Bend east across the Edwards Plateau. As a result, we`ve
maintained low order PoPs across the lower Trans Pecos through
06Z. Elsewhere PoPs have been lowered and sensible weather has
been removed.

The ongoing forecast looks pretty good overall and only minor
additional tweaks were made. Did tweak Td grids to reflect a trend
from current observations, with secondary and tertiary grids
modified as a result. Sky grids look really good and T trends
likewise look fine.

Incoming guidance and model data continue to portray a warmup
Sunday and Labor Day. It`s possible that many areas south of I-20
and away from the mountains will see temperatures reach or exceed
the century mark Monday. Isolated diurnal thunderstorms remain in
the forecast through Labor Day as well; however, surface Tds will
need to increase a bit to match the increase in midlevel lapse
rates for us to increase PoPs more than are currently forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71 100  70 101  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  99  76 101  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70 103  69 104  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  99  77 100  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72 100  72 101  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  94  70  95  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   66  99  67 100  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   57  92  59  93  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74 100  /   0  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  73 100  /   0  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73 103  73 104  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 310200
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
900 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.UPDATE...

Please see the evening forecast update below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection down across the lower Trans Pecos has diminished with
loss of sensible heating. It`s possible, however, that one or two
more cells might pop up along an outflow boundary extending from
the Big Bend east across the Edwards Plateau. As a result, we`ve
maintained low order PoPs across the lower Trans Pecos through
06Z. Elsewhere PoPs have been lowered and sensible weather has
been removed.

The ongoing forecast looks pretty good overall and only minor
additional tweaks were made. Did tweak Td grids to reflect a trend
from current observations, with secondary and tertiary grids
modified as a result. Sky grids look really good and T trends
likewise look fine.

Incoming guidance and model data continue to portray a warmup
Sunday and Labor Day. It`s possible that many areas south of I-20
and away from the mountains will see temperatures reach or exceed
the century mark Monday. Isolated diurnal thunderstorms remain in
the forecast through Labor Day as well; however, surface Tds will
need to increase a bit to match the increase in midlevel lapse
rates for us to increase PoPs more than are currently forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71 100  70 101  /   0  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  99  76 101  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70 103  69 104  /   0  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  99  77 100  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72 100  72 101  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  94  70  95  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   66  99  67 100  /   0  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   57  92  59  93  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74 100  /   0  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  73 100  /   0  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73 103  73 104  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 302318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with light southeast winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Lower surface dewpoints have materialized in areas n of I-20 favoring
warmer temps today than yesterday. Isold tstms will still be possible
this PM though across the Trans Pecos and far srn PB where low level
mstr is better. 85h temps will start to increase Sunday underneath
building 5h heights. This trend will generally continue into Tuesday.
85h and 7h temps peak on Monday, U20s-L30C and 13-15C, respectively.
Even though the PB has lost about 17 minutes of sunlight over the
last 2 weeks we won`t be able to tell it on Monday when high temps
in U90s-L100s will be fairly widespread. MAV/ECS MOS data are more
in line with the 85h temps and will side toward this warmer
guidance thru Monday. Isold tstms will continue to occur INVOF
Davis Mtns Sunday-Tuesday per steepening of the 7h-5h LR/s and
strong surface based heating. Thereafter the models are in
agreement that the mid level ridge will be n-ne of the CWFA. This
will favor a deeper ely component and the low level thermal ridge
will break down and move w signaling cooler temps from mid week
into next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 302318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with light southeast winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Lower surface dewpoints have materialized in areas n of I-20 favoring
warmer temps today than yesterday. Isold tstms will still be possible
this PM though across the Trans Pecos and far srn PB where low level
mstr is better. 85h temps will start to increase Sunday underneath
building 5h heights. This trend will generally continue into Tuesday.
85h and 7h temps peak on Monday, U20s-L30C and 13-15C, respectively.
Even though the PB has lost about 17 minutes of sunlight over the
last 2 weeks we won`t be able to tell it on Monday when high temps
in U90s-L100s will be fairly widespread. MAV/ECS MOS data are more
in line with the 85h temps and will side toward this warmer
guidance thru Monday. Isold tstms will continue to occur INVOF
Davis Mtns Sunday-Tuesday per steepening of the 7h-5h LR/s and
strong surface based heating. Thereafter the models are in
agreement that the mid level ridge will be n-ne of the CWFA. This
will favor a deeper ely component and the low level thermal ridge
will break down and move w signaling cooler temps from mid week
into next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301901
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Lower surface dewpoints have materialized in areas n of I-20 favoring
warmer temps today than yesterday. Isold tstms will still be possible
this PM though across the Trans Pecos and far srn PB where low level
mstr is better. 85h temps will start to increase Sunday underneath
building 5h heights. This trend will generally continue into Tuesday.
85h and 7h temps peak on Monday, U20s-L30C and 13-15C, respectively.
Even though the PB has lost about 17 minutes of sunlight over the
last 2 weeks we won`t be able to tell it on Monday when high temps
in U90s-L100s will be fairly widespread. MAV/ECS MOS data are more
in line with the 85h temps and will side toward this warmer
guidance thru Monday. Isold tstms will continue to occur INVOF
Davis Mtns Sunday-Tuesday per steepening of the 7h-5h LR/s and
strong surface based heating. Thereafter the models are in
agreement that the mid level ridge will be n-ne of the CWFA. This
will favor a deeper ely component and the low level thermal ridge
will break down and move w signaling cooler temps from mid week
into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71 100  70 101  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  99  76 101  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70 103  69 104  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  99  77 100  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72 100  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  94  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   66  99  67 100  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   57  92  59  93  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74 100  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  73 100  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73 103  73 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301901
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Lower surface dewpoints have materialized in areas n of I-20 favoring
warmer temps today than yesterday. Isold tstms will still be possible
this PM though across the Trans Pecos and far srn PB where low level
mstr is better. 85h temps will start to increase Sunday underneath
building 5h heights. This trend will generally continue into Tuesday.
85h and 7h temps peak on Monday, U20s-L30C and 13-15C, respectively.
Even though the PB has lost about 17 minutes of sunlight over the
last 2 weeks we won`t be able to tell it on Monday when high temps
in U90s-L100s will be fairly widespread. MAV/ECS MOS data are more
in line with the 85h temps and will side toward this warmer
guidance thru Monday. Isold tstms will continue to occur INVOF
Davis Mtns Sunday-Tuesday per steepening of the 7h-5h LR/s and
strong surface based heating. Thereafter the models are in
agreement that the mid level ridge will be n-ne of the CWFA. This
will favor a deeper ely component and the low level thermal ridge
will break down and move w signaling cooler temps from mid week
into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71 100  70 101  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  99  76 101  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70 103  69 104  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  99  77 100  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72 100  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  94  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   66  99  67 100  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   57  92  59  93  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74 100  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  73 100  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73 103  73 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301628
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1128 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist next 24 hours, on the NE periphery of
the upper ridge. Forecast soundings suggest a fairly extensive cu
field developing this afternoon and Sunday, w/bases 5-8 kft agl.
Otherwise, light return flow continues, w/slim chances of convection.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301628
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1128 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist next 24 hours, on the NE periphery of
the upper ridge. Forecast soundings suggest a fairly extensive cu
field developing this afternoon and Sunday, w/bases 5-8 kft agl.
Otherwise, light return flow continues, w/slim chances of convection.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301132
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with afternoon cu expected. Light wind this morning will
become SE around 10kts by afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301132
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with afternoon cu expected. Light wind this morning will
become SE around 10kts by afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 300936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  70  98  71  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              95  72  98  72  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                97  70 101  69  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  96  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           96  71  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  65  93  66  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  68  98  68  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   88  61  91  62  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  71  98  72  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  96  72  98  72  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    99  72 102  73  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 300936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  70  98  71  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              95  72  98  72  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                97  70 101  69  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  96  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           96  71  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  65  93  66  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  68  98  68  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   88  61  91  62  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  71  98  72  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  96  72  98  72  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    99  72 102  73  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 300541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR... few clouds overnight with afternoon cu expected. Wind will
remain out of the SE generally 10kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

UPDATE...

See updated forecast discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned along a sub-synoptic boundary stretching from
the Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau. As such have removed
the bulk of PoPs from the overnight forecast. We`ll continue to
see a few cells over the lower Trans Pecos for the next hour or so,
however.

Wouldn`t surprise me if patchy fog were to develop after midnight
over portions of the eastern Permian Basin. However, confidence in
significant coverage is low enough to preclude mention in the
forecast. Will have to monitor, though.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 300541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR... few clouds overnight with afternoon cu expected. Wind will
remain out of the SE generally 10kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

UPDATE...

See updated forecast discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned along a sub-synoptic boundary stretching from
the Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau. As such have removed
the bulk of PoPs from the overnight forecast. We`ll continue to
see a few cells over the lower Trans Pecos for the next hour or so,
however.

Wouldn`t surprise me if patchy fog were to develop after midnight
over portions of the eastern Permian Basin. However, confidence in
significant coverage is low enough to preclude mention in the
forecast. Will have to monitor, though.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 300151
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
851 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...

See updated forecast discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned along a sub-synoptic boundary stretching from
the Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau. As such have removed
the bulk of PoPs from the overnight forecast. We`ll continue to
see a few cells over the lower Trans Pecos for the next hour or so,
however.

Wouldn`t surprise me if patchy fog were to develop after midnight
over portions of the eastern Permian Basin. However, confidence in
significant coverage is low enough to preclude mention in the
forecast. Will have to monitor, though.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  95  71  97  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  98  75  98  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  71 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  77 101  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  95  72  96  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  92  67  93  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   65  94  67  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  87  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  96  74  96  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  72  96  74  95  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    72  99  74 101  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 300151
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
851 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...

See updated forecast discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned along a sub-synoptic boundary stretching from
the Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau. As such have removed
the bulk of PoPs from the overnight forecast. We`ll continue to
see a few cells over the lower Trans Pecos for the next hour or so,
however.

Wouldn`t surprise me if patchy fog were to develop after midnight
over portions of the eastern Permian Basin. However, confidence in
significant coverage is low enough to preclude mention in the
forecast. Will have to monitor, though.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  95  71  97  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  98  75  98  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  71 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  77 101  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  95  72  96  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  92  67  93  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   65  94  67  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  87  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  96  74  96  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  72  96  74  95  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    72  99  74 101  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 292318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday. Isolated storms across
the PB and lower Trans Pecos will dissipate after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A weak boundary is near a line from CNM to MAF to south of BPG and
with clouds across the nrn CWFA the 18Z temps were about 7-10
degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Visible imagery does show
clouds dissipating so temps will catch up some, still have lowered
highs temps a few degrees across the n. Also have decided to tighten
up PoP gradient on wrn edge. Combination of boundary, better low
level mstr, and SB instability does favor best PoPs across the far
e-se CWFA and have left low end scattered 30% PoPs there for this
PM. Drier air will be deeper Sat as low dwpnt air across NM moves
se into parts of the CWFA. SB LI`s increase to -1 to zero at 21Z
Sat and with 85h temps around 26-28C it will mostly be on the hot
side with high temps running about 3-5 degrees above normal. The
exception will be in the Davis Mtns where dwpnts in the M50s and
7h-5h LR/s near 6.5 c/km warrant at least isold PoPs. Low level
mstr will edge back up with dwpnts in the mid/upper 50s
Sunday/Monday as se surface winds persist. CINH looks to increase
though with 7h temps increasing to around 12C Sunday and 13-14C
Monday. Isold PoPs still look to be warranted in the Davis Mtns
though. 85h temps will increase to around 27C in the PB to 31C in
SE NM, thus it will be warmer still. There will be little change
Tue, but LI`s will slowly becoming more negative and ECMWF does
initiate small area of storms across NW PB/SE NM Tue PM within a
very minor 5h mid level theta-e ridge axis. Mid level ridging is
well in place Wed with an e-se mid level flow. This will cool 7h
temps a few degrees and isold -SHRA will be possible. In lieu of
"shotgun" low PoPs will keep fcst dry Wed. Thur/Fri the chance of
precip may be just a little better across the w as mid level mstr
will have had a better chance to move into higher terrain of the
Trans Pecos. High temps will cool a few degrees with the deeper se
flow.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 292318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday. Isolated storms across
the PB and lower Trans Pecos will dissipate after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A weak boundary is near a line from CNM to MAF to south of BPG and
with clouds across the nrn CWFA the 18Z temps were about 7-10
degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Visible imagery does show
clouds dissipating so temps will catch up some, still have lowered
highs temps a few degrees across the n. Also have decided to tighten
up PoP gradient on wrn edge. Combination of boundary, better low
level mstr, and SB instability does favor best PoPs across the far
e-se CWFA and have left low end scattered 30% PoPs there for this
PM. Drier air will be deeper Sat as low dwpnt air across NM moves
se into parts of the CWFA. SB LI`s increase to -1 to zero at 21Z
Sat and with 85h temps around 26-28C it will mostly be on the hot
side with high temps running about 3-5 degrees above normal. The
exception will be in the Davis Mtns where dwpnts in the M50s and
7h-5h LR/s near 6.5 c/km warrant at least isold PoPs. Low level
mstr will edge back up with dwpnts in the mid/upper 50s
Sunday/Monday as se surface winds persist. CINH looks to increase
though with 7h temps increasing to around 12C Sunday and 13-14C
Monday. Isold PoPs still look to be warranted in the Davis Mtns
though. 85h temps will increase to around 27C in the PB to 31C in
SE NM, thus it will be warmer still. There will be little change
Tue, but LI`s will slowly becoming more negative and ECMWF does
initiate small area of storms across NW PB/SE NM Tue PM within a
very minor 5h mid level theta-e ridge axis. Mid level ridging is
well in place Wed with an e-se mid level flow. This will cool 7h
temps a few degrees and isold -SHRA will be possible. In lieu of
"shotgun" low PoPs will keep fcst dry Wed. Thur/Fri the chance of
precip may be just a little better across the w as mid level mstr
will have had a better chance to move into higher terrain of the
Trans Pecos. High temps will cool a few degrees with the deeper se
flow.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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