000
FXUS64 KMAF 212318
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT VERY NEAR FST BUT THE PUSH IS WEAKENING. AS SUCH WINDS
WILL SLOWLY TURN E-SE OVERNIGHT AND MOSTLY REMAIN 10KTS OR LESS.
NAM12 DOES SUGGEST SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS WED AM FST/MAF BUT FOR NOW
WILL NOT INCLUDE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS. S WINDS WED AT 10-15 KTS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RETURN ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT WITH STRONG HEATING THURSDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. A BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON FRIDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE DRYLINE WILL BE A PLAYER...BUT TO WHAT
EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EXPECTED MODEST MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT COULD
INCREASE DEPENDING ON SUBTLE UPPER FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC UPPER LOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL GIVEN CLOUDS...MOISTURE...
AND EXPECTED OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY`S STORMS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE LATE MAY NORMS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 212100
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
400 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RETURN ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT WITH STRONG HEATING THURSDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. A BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON FRIDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE DRYLINE WILL BE A PLAYER...BUT TO WHAT
EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EXPECTED MODEST MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT COULD
INCREASE DEPENDING ON SUBTLE UPPER FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC UPPER LOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL GIVEN CLOUDS...MOISTURE...
AND EXPECTED OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY`S STORMS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE LATE MAY NORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 59 96 70 96 / 0 0 0 20
BIG SPRING TX 59 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 60 97 65 98 / 0 0 0 20
DRYDEN TX 69 95 74 95 / 0 10 0 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 65 96 71 96 / 0 0 0 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 90 67 89 / 0 0 0 20
HOBBS NM 57 92 65 96 / 0 0 0 20
MARFA TX 46 88 54 89 / 0 0 0 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 61 95 71 96 / 0 0 0 20
ODESSA TX 62 97 72 96 / 0 0 0 20
WINK TX 61 99 71 100 / 0 0 0 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/70
000
FXUS64 KMAF 211738
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES. MORNING COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED AS
FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 10 AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS REMAIN AT ALL
TERMINAL EXCEPT FOR CNM. WIND SPEEDS 10-15KT SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20-25KT WILL CONTINUE INTO MID AFTERNOON THEN BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NE NM...SET TO MOVE THRU THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...OBS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT MOVING THRU SE NM/WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON TEMPS ABOUT A CAT BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THRU THE
PANHANDLES LATER TODAY...BUT ONLY GRAZES THE NE ZONES. COOLER WX
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS THE SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES
SE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO RESUME...AND A QUICK REBOUND TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT GULF MSTR INTO THE
AREA...W/FORECAST DEWPOINTS OF 60F OR BETTER THRU KMAF BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BRING THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF PERTURBATIONS THRU THE RIDGE...INITIATING CONVECTION INVOF A WEAK
DRYLINE...AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY...WHEN MODELS BACK THE DRYLINE UP
BEYOND KGDP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/THIS SCENARIO FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SO WE/VE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. BY
00Z SATURDAY...THE ECMWF INCREASES THE PWAT AT KMAF TO 1.45
INCHES...WELL-ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO A DECENT SHOT AT MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
CARDS. SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS EVEN TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG
THE DRYLINE SUNDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT...SO WE/VE
KEPT GRIDS DRY THEN.
FOR TEMPS...THE NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO COLD ON LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF EXPECTED RETURN MOISTURE...SO WE/VE GENERALLY STAYED ABOVE
GUIDANCE. HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27
000
FXUS64 KMAF 211131
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
631 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH COLD FRONT NOW MOVING THROUGH THE
PERMIAN BASIN CONTINUING SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. GUSTY NORTH WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING
AROUND SUNSET.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 504 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NE NM...SET TO MOVE THRU THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...OBS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT MOVING THRU SE NM/WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON TEMPS ABOUT A CAT BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THRU THE
PANHANDLES LATER TODAY...BUT ONLY GRAZES THE NE ZONES. COOLER WX
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS THE SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES
SE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO RESUME...AND A QUICK REBOUND TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT GULF MSTR INTO THE
AREA...W/FORECAST DEWPOINTS OF 60F OR BETTER THRU KMAF BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BRING THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF PERTURBATIONS THRU THE RIDGE...INITIATING CONVECTION INVOF A WEAK
DRYLINE...AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY...WHEN MODELS BACK THE DRYLINE UP
BEYOND KGDP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/THIS SCENARIO FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SO WE/VE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. BY
00Z SATURDAY...THE ECMWF INCREASES THE PWAT AT KMAF TO 1.45
INCHES...WELL-ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO A DECENT SHOT AT MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
CARDS. SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS EVEN TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG
THE DRYLINE SUNDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT...SO WE/VE
KEPT GRIDS DRY THEN.
FOR TEMPS...THE NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO COLD ON LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF EXPECTED RETURN MOISTURE...SO WE/VE GENERALLY STAYED ABOVE
GUIDANCE. HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
000
FXUS64 KMAF 211004
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WV IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NE NM...SET TO MOVE THRU THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC...OBS SHOWED A COLD
FRONT MOVING THRU SE NM/WRN LOW ROLLING PLAINS...AND WILL RESULT IN
AFTERNOON TEMPS ABOUT A CAT BELOW NORMAL TODAY. MODELS DEVELOP
CONVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE TROUGH AS IT SWINGS THRU THE
PANHANDLES LATER TODAY...BUT ONLY GRAZES THE NE ZONES. COOLER WX
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH...AS THE SFC RIDGE QUICKLY MOVES
SE...ALLOWING RETURN FLOW TO RESUME...AND A QUICK REBOUND TO
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPS WEDNESDAY UNDER A DEVELOPING RIDGE.
MEANWHILE...RETURN FLOW WILL ADVECT ABUNDANT GULF MSTR INTO THE
AREA...W/FORECAST DEWPOINTS OF 60F OR BETTER THRU KMAF BY 12Z
THURSDAY. THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MODELS BRING THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF PERTURBATIONS THRU THE RIDGE...INITIATING CONVECTION INVOF A WEAK
DRYLINE...AND EVEN MORE SO FRIDAY...WHEN MODELS BACK THE DRYLINE UP
BEYOND KGDP. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT W/THIS SCENARIO FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NOW...SO WE/VE INCREASED POPS...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY. BY
00Z SATURDAY...THE ECMWF INCREASES THE PWAT AT KMAF TO 1.45
INCHES...WELL-ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...SO A DECENT SHOT AT MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE
CARDS. SATURDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER SHOT AT CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER
THE EASTERN ZONES. MODELS EVEN TRY TO REDEVELOP CONVECTION ALONG
THE DRYLINE SUNDAY/MEMORIAL DAY...BUT DIFFER ON PLACEMENT...SO WE/VE
KEPT GRIDS DRY THEN.
FOR TEMPS...THE NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO COLD ON LOWS...ESPECIALLY IN
LIEU OF EXPECTED RETURN MOISTURE...SO WE/VE GENERALLY STAYED ABOVE
GUIDANCE. HIGHS LOOK REASONABLE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 83 60 96 70 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 83 60 95 70 / 10 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 87 61 97 66 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 97 70 95 75 / 10 0 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 90 66 96 72 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 80 64 90 68 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 81 58 92 65 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 83 45 88 54 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 85 62 95 71 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 85 63 97 72 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 91 62 99 70 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29/44
000
FXUS64 KMAF 210535
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 06Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THIS MORNING AND
BECOME GUSTY BEFORE WEAKENING THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
29
000
FXUS64 KMAF 210310
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1010 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE TO ALLOW RED FLAG WARNING IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS TO
EXPIRE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A LITTLE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS ARE MOVING OVER THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING, WHICH IS PREVENTING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS FROM DECREASING. DESPITE THESE STRONGER WINDS,
DECOUPLING SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE SPEEDS TO DROP OFF THROUGH 21/05Z OR
21/06Z. IN ADDITION, RH/S WILL INCREASE THROUGH 21/06Z, ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS. EVEN THOUGH
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST IN ISOLATED
LOCATIONS, WILL ALLOW THE RED FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE ON TIME DUE TO
THE ABOVE REASONS. WINDS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
ALREADY DROPPED OFF, SO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE MINIMAL THERE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21/02Z...BUT INCREASE AGAIN FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT KHOB AND KMAF THE
LONGEST WITH THE REST OF THE TAF SITES DECREASING BEFORE 21/18Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
QUIESCENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT`S BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE OFF
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT, THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 3 AM TUESDAY, TO I-10 BY 6
AM, AND THEN ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS BY MID
MORNING. ALL THAT`S EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT IS A WINDSHIFT TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN ALL THE WAY TO JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND DRYLINE-OGENESIS
AS WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A
RESULTANT CAP WILL SERVE TO SQUASH CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE AND HEATING AT THE
SURFACE SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRYING TO PREDICT PLACEMENT OF A MESO-GAMMA SCALE
FEATURE AT SYNOPTIC SCALES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST, AND THUS ANY
GUESS OF WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT SET UP AND THUS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN MIGHT BE THIS FAR OUT IS JUST THAT...A GUESS,
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT EDUCATED. HAVING SAID THIS, SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT...WE
SHALL SEE. IN ANY EVENT, SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO
CHANCE AT ALL. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW
THERE`S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF LATER SHIFTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN.
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAYBE IT`S
WISHCASTING AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOME BADLY NEEDED
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
STAY TUNED.
FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS STILL REMAIN BELOW
20 MPH. WINDS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY MID AFTERNOON SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOLD ON TO
THE RED FLAG WARNING. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEF AND THE
FOLLOWING SHIFT MAY NEED TO END THE WARNING EARLIER THAN 03Z.
REGARDLESS...CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 61 89 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 60 88 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 60 88 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 63 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 59 86 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 49 83 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 90 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 63 88 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 60 95 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27/70
000
FXUS64 KMAF 202252
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOUTHWEST
TO WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AROUND 21/02Z...BUT INCREASE AGAIN FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AT KHOB AND KMAF THE
LONGEST WITH THE REST OF THE TAF SITES DECREASING BEFORE 21/18Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
QUIESCENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT`S BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE OFF
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT, THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 3 AM TUESDAY, TO I-10 BY 6
AM, AND THEN ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS BY MID
MORNING. ALL THAT`S EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT IS A WINDSHIFT TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN ALL THE WAY TO JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND DRYLINE-OGENESIS
AS WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A
RESULTANT CAP WILL SERVE TO SQUASH CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE AND HEATING AT THE
SURFACE SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRYING TO PREDICT PLACEMENT OF A MESO-GAMMA SCALE
FEATURE AT SYNOPTIC SCALES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST, AND THUS ANY
GUESS OF WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT SET UP AND THUS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN MIGHT BE THIS FAR OUT IS JUST THAT...A GUESS,
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT EDUCATED. HAVING SAID THIS, SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT...WE
SHALL SEE. IN ANY EVENT, SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO
CHANCE AT ALL. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW
THERE`S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF LATER SHIFTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN.
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAYBE IT`S
WISHCASTING AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOME BADLY NEEDED
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
STAY TUNED.
FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS STILL REMAIN BELOW
20 MPH. WINDS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY MID AFTERNOON SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOLD ON TO
THE RED FLAG WARNING. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEF AND THE
FOLLOWING SHIFT MAY NEED TO END THE WARNING EARLIER THAN 03Z.
REGARDLESS...CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 61 89 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 60 88 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 60 88 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 63 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 59 86 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 49 83 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 90 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 63 88 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 60 95 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27/70
000
FXUS64 KMAF 202036
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
336 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
QUIESCENT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
UPPER TROUGH THAT`S BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SEVERE WEATHER OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE OFF
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE ANTICYCLOGENESIS IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL DRIVE A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT, THROUGH THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY 3 AM TUESDAY, TO I-10 BY 6
AM, AND THEN ACROSS THE BIG BEND AND LOWER TRANS PECOS BY MID
MORNING. ALL THAT`S EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT IS A WINDSHIFT TO THE
NORTH. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL GET KNOCKED DOWN ALL THE WAY TO JUST A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL THEN TRANSLATE EAST TUESDAY
NIGHT, SETTING THE STAGE FOR MOISTURE RETURN AND DRYLINE-OGENESIS
AS WINDS VEER TO SOUTHEASTERLY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND A RESULTANT
CAP WILL SERVE TO SQUASH CONVECTIVE CHANCES WEDNESDAY.
THE DRYLINE WILL BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS AN INCREASE IN FLOW ALOFT AND CONVERGENCE AND HEATING AT THE
SURFACE SET THE STAGE FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. TRYING TO PREDICT PLACEMENT OF A MESO-GAMMA SCALE
FEATURE AT SYNOPTIC SCALES IS DIFFICULT AT BEST, AND THUS ANY
GUESS OF WHERE THE DRYLINE MIGHT SET UP AND THUS WHERE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN MIGHT BE THIS FAR OUT IS JUST THAT...A GUESS,
ALBEIT SOMEWHAT EDUCATED. HAVING SAID THIS, SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR MCS DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY NIGHT...WE
SHALL SEE. IN ANY EVENT, SOME CHANCE OF RAIN IS BETTER THAN NO
CHANCE AT ALL. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE A
BIT COOLER GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND MOISTURE. RIGHT NOW
THERE`S ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS TO KEEP POPS OUT
OF THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY, BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED
IF LATER SHIFTS INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN.
LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MAYBE IT`S
WISHCASTING AT THIS POINT IN TIME, BUT THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WOULD SEEM TO FAVOR SOME BADLY NEEDED
RAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS...
STAY TUNED.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA HAS BEEN SLOW TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS STILL REMAIN BELOW
20 MPH. WINDS WILL STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INCREASE ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS BY MID AFTERNOON SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOLD ON TO
THE RED FLAG WARNING. CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEF AND THE
FOLLOWING SHIFT MAY NEED TO END THE WARNING EARLIER THAN 03Z.
REGARDLESS...CONCERNS WILL BE ELEVATED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 61 89 62 94 / 0 0 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 60 88 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
CARLSBAD NM 60 88 58 97 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 69 97 70 97 / 0 0 0 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 63 94 65 96 / 0 0 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 60 85 62 85 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 59 86 58 95 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 49 83 49 89 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 60 90 64 95 / 0 0 0 0
ODESSA TX 63 88 63 94 / 0 0 0 0
WINK TX 60 95 63 100 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27/70
000
FXUS64 KMAF 201746
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1246 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TAF SITES. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS HAVE
BEEN SPORADIC THIS MORNING AS THE DRYLINE MEANDERS AROUND HOWEVER
IT SHOULD CONTINUE A CONSTANT PUSH EASTWARD FROM NOW ON AND GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE
NEAR SUNSET AND REMAIN AOB 10KT OVERNIGHT. A FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...VEERING WINDS TO
THE NORTHEAST BY MID MORNING FOR MOST TERMINALS. NO PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED ATTM.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO HOT WX BY THE WEEKEND BUT ACTUALLY
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LOOKING TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...
SUNDAY CAME IN AT THE MID 90S EVEN WITH UNLIMITED SUNSHINE AND A
WEST WIND. THIS WAS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
MOVED EAST THUS NOT MIXING DOWN AS WARM OF AIR. BASED ON EXPECTED
850 TEMPS TODAY NEAR 28C/82F EXPECT HIGHS TODAY AROUND 98 AT
MAF/ODO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN MAF AND
LBB... ETA SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THIS LOCATION AT 06Z THAT DEVELOPS
INTO A SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS DURING THE DAY. THIS LOW DEVELOPS A
WEAK FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER
TEMPS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND TODAY IN THE GUADALUPE MTNS... BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE RAIN THIS WEEK OVER PARTS OF W TX AND SE NM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOW POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF WITH THIS
EVENT AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFT UP FROM THE PACIFIC.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS THURSDAY
NIGHT COMING OUT OF NM INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... IF SO SOME
LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. EXPECT LOCATION OF RAIN WILL
CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GDP MTNS TODAY WHERE
20KTS 85H-7H WINDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...
ESPECIALLY IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. RH/S WILL AGAIN BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL WITH BROAD THERMAL RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS REALLY DONE SOME DAMAGE TO FUEL MSTR AS SEEN IN TFS FUEL
DRYNESS NOW DEPICTING 90TH PERCENTILE DRYNESS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
27
000
FXUS64 KMAF 201127
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
627 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MSTR HAS RETURNED A LITTLE FARTHER W THAN THOUGHT AND
SATELLITE SHOWS A FEW LOW CLOUDS ABOUT 60NM S OF MAF. STILL NOT
EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO DEVELOP IN THE MAF OR FST AREAS. WINDS OF
15-20KTS STILL LOOK LIKELY TODAY BY 15Z-18Z. A WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO AREA EARLY TUE AM AROUND 08Z-10Z BUT LOOKS DRY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO HOT WX BY THE WEEKEND BUT ACTUALLY
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LOOKING TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...
SUNDAY CAME IN AT THE MID 90S EVEN WITH UNLIMITED SUNSHINE AND A
WEST WIND. THIS WAS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
MOVED EAST THUS NOT MIXING DOWN AS WARM OF AIR. BASED ON EXPECTED
850 TEMPS TODAY NEAR 28C/82F EXPECT HIGHS TODAY AROUND 98 AT
MAF/ODO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN MAF AND
LBB... ETA SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THIS LOCATION AT 06Z THAT DEVELOPS
INTO A SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS DURING THE DAY. THIS LOW DEVELOPS A
WEAK FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER
TEMPS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND TODAY IN THE GUADALUPE MTNS... BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE RAIN THIS WEEK OVER PARTS OF W TX AND SE NM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOW POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF WITH THIS
EVENT AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFT UP FROM THE PACIFIC.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS THURSDAY
NIGHT COMING OUT OF NM INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... IF SO SOME
LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. EXPECT LOCATION OF RAIN WILL
CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GDP MTNS TODAY WHERE
20KTS 85H-7H WINDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...
ESPECIALLY IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. RH/S WILL AGAIN BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL WITH BROAD THERMAL RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS REALLY DONE SOME DAMAGE TO FUEL MSTR AS SEEN IN TFS FUEL
DRYNESS NOW DEPICTING 90TH PERCENTILE DRYNESS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 200846
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
346 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTER OF THE COUNTY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SPIN ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY
MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. AN UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO RETURN WEDNESDAY
AND REMAINS OVER TEXAS AND NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORMALLY
THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RETURN TO HOT WX BY THE WEEKEND BUT ACTUALLY
HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WITH INCREASING CLOUD
COVER LOOKING TO OFFSET THE EFFECTS OF THE RIDGE.
AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN...
SUNDAY CAME IN AT THE MID 90S EVEN WITH UNLIMITED SUNSHINE AND A
WEST WIND. THIS WAS DUE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS THE RIDGE
MOVED EAST THUS NOT MIXING DOWN AS WARM OF AIR. BASED ON EXPECTED
850 TEMPS TODAY NEAR 28C/82F EXPECT HIGHS TODAY AROUND 98 AT
MAF/ODO. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK BOUNDARY BETWEEN MAF AND
LBB... ETA SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH IN THIS LOCATION AT 06Z THAT DEVELOPS
INTO A SURFACE LOW NEAR CDS DURING THE DAY. THIS LOW DEVELOPS A
WEAK FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWEEPS ACROSS. TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY THIS WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S NORTH TO UPPER 90S SOUTH. A SOUTH WIND AND WARMER
TEMPS RETURN WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
REMAINING EAST OF THE AREA. PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WERE HINTING AT
POSSIBILITY OF HIGH WIND TODAY IN THE GUADALUPE MTNS... BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF WIND SPEEDS.
COULD ACTUALLY SEE RAIN THIS WEEK OVER PARTS OF W TX AND SE NM.
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE IN THE EXTENDED WITH LOW POPS BEGINNING
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP QPF WITH THIS
EVENT AS REMAINS OF TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFT UP FROM THE PACIFIC.
SOME OF THE MODELS ARE DEVELOPING WHAT LOOKS LIKE A MCS THURSDAY
NIGHT COMING OUT OF NM INTO THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN... IF SO SOME
LOCATIONS WOULD RECEIVE GOOD RAINFALL. EXPECT LOCATION OF RAIN WILL
CHANGE FROM MODEL RUN TO RUN SO WILL KEEP POPS LOW FOR NOW.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WX WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE GDP MTNS TODAY WHERE
20KTS 85H-7H WINDS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO MATERIALIZE...
ESPECIALLY IN TOPOGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS. RH/S WILL AGAIN BE
WIDESPREAD IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL WITH BROAD THERMAL RIDGE...
TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. HEAT OF THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS REALLY DONE SOME DAMAGE TO FUEL MSTR AS SEEN IN TFS FUEL
DRYNESS NOW DEPICTING 90TH PERCENTILE DRYNESS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 62 89 62 / 0 10 0 0
BIG SPRING TX 97 63 88 64 / 10 10 0 10
CARLSBAD NM 97 60 88 58 / 0 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 100 69 97 70 / 10 10 0 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 98 64 94 65 / 0 10 0 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 88 60 85 62 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 94 60 86 58 / 0 0 0 0
MARFA TX 87 47 83 49 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 98 63 90 64 / 10 10 0 0
ODESSA TX 98 64 88 63 / 10 10 0 0
WINK TX 101 62 95 63 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
49/72
000
FXUS64 KMAF 200447
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1147 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS
BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AT 15-18KTS. WINDS WILL
QUICKLY DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 200117
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
817 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATE FOR EXPIRATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA, EXCEPT IN
GAPS AND PASSES IN THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WHERE 20 MPH OR GREATER
WINDS WILL LAST A LITTLE LONGER. SINCE WINDS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
WILL NOT BE OVER 20 MPH SUSTAINED FOR ANY APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF
TIME, AND RH/S WILL INCREASE IN THE GUADALUPES, WILL ALLOW THE RED
FLAG WARNING TO EXPIRE. THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE GUADALUPE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY REMAINS INTACT SINCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL
EXPECTED. 67
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 96 62 91 / 10 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 97 63 89 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 61 95 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 66 97 65 95 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 62 94 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 50 87 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 97 63 92 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 63 96 64 88 / 0 10 10 0
WINK TX 62 100 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 192255
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 24 HOURS. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING ONLY TO
INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY MORNING. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THOSE FOR YESTERDAY DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE
DRYLINE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA AND GUSTY DRY WEST WINDS ARE
PREVAILING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER AS THE DRYLINE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK INTO ALL EXCEPT THE EASTERN FRINGES
OF THE CWA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR GDP FOR MONDAY FROM
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS...700 MB WINDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THESE SOURCES INDICATE WEAKER WINDS AT 700 MB AND NOT MUCH MIXING
ABOVE THAT LEVEL. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE ALSO TRENDING DOWNWARD
IN WIND SPEEDS FOR GDP ON MONDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH A NE WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. STARTING THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR ABOVE AVERAGE MORNING
LOWS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRECIP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 96 62 91 / 10 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 97 63 89 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 61 95 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 66 97 65 95 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 62 94 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 50 87 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 97 63 92 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 63 96 64 88 / 0 10 10 0
WINK TX 62 100 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.
&&
$$
70/80
000
FXUS64 KMAF 191931
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
231 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX.
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
THOSE FOR YESTERDAY DUE TO HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
UPPER LOW. NEVERTHELESS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AS A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THE
DRYLINE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE CWA AND GUSTY DRY WEST WINDS ARE
PREVAILING. OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE COOLER AS THE DRYLINE
IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETREAT BACK INTO ALL EXCEPT THE EASTERN FRINGES
OF THE CWA. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ON MONDAY WITH THE
UPPER TROUGH STILL TO THE NORTH AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT ANTICIPATE A HIGH WIND EVENT FOR GDP FOR MONDAY FROM
LOOKING AT CROSS SECTIONS...700 MB WINDS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
THESE SOURCES INDICATE WEAKER WINDS AT 700 MB AND NOT MUCH MIXING
ABOVE THAT LEVEL. MET AND MAV GUIDANCE ARE ALSO TRENDING DOWNWARD
IN WIND SPEEDS FOR GDP ON MONDAY.
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...IT WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
INTO THE CWA TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN
CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES WITH A NE WIND SHIFT. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
BUILD OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED TROUGH
MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE WEST COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS WEST
TEXAS WHICH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN. STARTING THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
THE AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS ALLOWING FOR ABOVE AVERAGE MORNING
LOWS. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP PRECIP OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO ADDED IN SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS
FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 63 96 62 91 / 10 0 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 97 63 89 / 10 10 10 0
CARLSBAD NM 61 95 60 90 / 10 0 0 0
DRYDEN TX 72 98 69 98 / 0 10 10 0
FORT STOCKTON TX 66 97 65 95 / 10 0 10 0
GUADALUPE PASS TX 62 88 60 87 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 62 94 59 88 / 10 0 0 0
MARFA TX 50 87 47 86 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 64 97 63 92 / 10 10 10 0
ODESSA TX 63 96 64 88 / 0 10 10 0
WINK TX 62 100 62 96 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
70/80
000
FXUS64 KMAF 191741
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE THE 19/18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CAVU CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS AREA TERMINALS THROUGH 20/18Z.
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS (WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS) THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN
AROUND MID MORNING MONDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 617 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS MOSTLY
5-10KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AND AT LEAST
BRIEFLY NEAR 20KTS AFTER 20Z AT MAF/INK/PEQ. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...
MITCHELL...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
70
000
FXUS64 KMAF 191117
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. CURRENTLY WINDS MOSTLY
5-10KTS BUT WILL INCREASE AROUND 15Z-17Z FROM THE W AND AT LEAST
BRIEFLY NEAR 20KTS AFTER 20Z AT MAF/INK/PEQ. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE TOWARD 01Z AND REMAIN BLO 10KTS THRU THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 190820
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
320 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
WITH UPPER RIDGE MOVING EAST AND A BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE ROCKIES TODAY... TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SLIGHTLY. THIS LOW WILL
SPIN ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY BEFORE AN UPPER
RIDGE RETURNS MID WEEK. THIS RIDGE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO CANADA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
AS A SURFACE TROUGH/DRYLINE DRAGS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THE WIND
WILL BECOME WESTERLY ACROSS THE AREA. WESTERLY WIND WILL CONTINUE
MONDAY AS A SURFACE LOW SITS NEAR CDS. IT DOES APPEAR THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY WHICH
SHOULD BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER THE COOL DOWN WILL
BE BRIEF AS SOUTHERLY WIND RETURNS BY THAT NIGHT. NORMAL HIGHS FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE UPPER 80S SO EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S BUT BELOW 100 FOR MOST
OF THE REGION. DRYLINE MOVING BACK AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA WILL
KEEP NIGHTTIME LOWS FROM COOLING MUCH BUT ALLOW DAYTIME TEMPS TO
HEAT QUICKLY. WILL GO WELL OVER GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND THIS MAY
STILL NOT BE WARM ENOUGH.
THE WEST WIND LOOKS TO PUSH THE DRYLINE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE ANY
STORMS DEVELOP ALONG IT IN OUR AREA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. RAIN CHANCES
IN THE EXTENDED ALSO NOT LOOKING AS GOOD AS THEY DID 24HRS AGO AS
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF PRECIP SOMEWHAT. MODEL QPF STILL DEVELOP SOME
PRECIP OVER THE AREA STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY BUT
MUCH LESS COVERAGE. WILL LEAVE ISOLATED POPS IN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE REGION BUT NOT INTRODUCE ANY ADDITIONAL RAIN
CHANCES.
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES MAY BE NEAR REACHING HIGH WIND CRITERIA
AT GDP ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE ROTATES AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH... HAVE PUSHED WIND SPEEDS DOWN A LITTLE TO STAY BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BUT IT MAY BE CLOSE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE WARNING.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX IS EXPECTED TODAY HOWEVER LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE
A LITTLE WEAKER THAN THOSE ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND
5KFT WILL COME OUT FROM VAN HORN TO THE GDP MTNS ALONG/NEAR I-20.
HAVE OPTED TO CANCEL THE WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR SE NM AND THE
NW PB AS MODELS DEPICT A LULL IN THE 5KFT THERE. HAVE UPGRADED WATCH
TO A WARNING ELSEWHERE...FOR THE MOST WINDS ACROSS THE PB WILL BE
15-25 MPH AND 15-30 IN THE GDP MTNS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH/S ALONG
WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 67 95 61 / 0 10 0 10
BIG SPRING TX 98 69 97 63 / 0 10 10 10
CARLSBAD NM 96 66 96 61 / 0 10 0 0
DRYDEN TX 102 72 101 70 / 0 0 10 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 98 70 98 66 / 0 10 0 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 88 65 88 61 / 0 0 0 0
HOBBS NM 94 65 94 59 / 0 10 0 0
MARFA TX 88 50 89 51 / 0 0 0 0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 98 68 97 63 / 0 10 10 10
ODESSA TX 97 69 96 64 / 0 0 10 10
WINK TX 100 66 100 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
TX...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 2 PM CDT /1 PM MDT/ THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM
CDT /7 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
BORDEN...CRANE...ECTOR...GLASSCOCK...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...
HOWARD...LOVING...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...REEVES
COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...SCURRY...VAN HORN AND
HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.
&&
$$
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