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000
FXUS64 KMAF 310928
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
427 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern conus putting the CWA
under northwest flow aloft.  A cold front has recently pushing
through the area and is stalled along the higher terrain.  Showers
and thunderstorms are currently moving across southeast New Mexico
as a response to the increase in lift over the region.
Precipitation will continue today mainly to the south and west of
the Pecos River.  Temperatures will be much cooler today with the
surface ridge across the area behind the front.

Conditions will be similar on Friday with showers and thunderstorms
across the same areas as the previous day and temperatures about the
same.  Locally moderate to heavy rain will be possible in these
areas with a good supply of moisture present.  An upper ridge will
begin moving and building over the region during the weekend and the
early part of next week.  Convection will be possible across the
higher terrain with instability and upslope flow present.  During
the middle part of next week, an upper trough will move over the
central plains sending a cold front southward toward the area.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase as a result of
this.  Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through the
early part of next week before warming to near normal by mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 86  66  87  66  /  20  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              85  66  87  67  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  68  83  66  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  92  75  91  75  /  30  30  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  69  86  69  /  30  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  61  75  62  /  40  50  50  60
HOBBS NM                   84  64  82  64  /  20  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   84  64  78  62  /  60  40  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  67  88  67  /  20  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  87  67  88  67  /  20  20  20  10
WINK TX                    91  70  87  70  /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80








000
FXUS64 KMAF 310928
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
427 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

There is an upper trough over the eastern conus putting the CWA
under northwest flow aloft.  A cold front has recently pushing
through the area and is stalled along the higher terrain.  Showers
and thunderstorms are currently moving across southeast New Mexico
as a response to the increase in lift over the region.
Precipitation will continue today mainly to the south and west of
the Pecos River.  Temperatures will be much cooler today with the
surface ridge across the area behind the front.

Conditions will be similar on Friday with showers and thunderstorms
across the same areas as the previous day and temperatures about the
same.  Locally moderate to heavy rain will be possible in these
areas with a good supply of moisture present.  An upper ridge will
begin moving and building over the region during the weekend and the
early part of next week.  Convection will be possible across the
higher terrain with instability and upslope flow present.  During
the middle part of next week, an upper trough will move over the
central plains sending a cold front southward toward the area.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase as a result of
this.  Temperatures are expected to remain below normal through the
early part of next week before warming to near normal by mid week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 86  66  87  66  /  20  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              85  66  87  67  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                86  68  83  66  /  20  30  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  92  75  91  75  /  30  30  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  69  86  69  /  30  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          81  61  75  62  /  40  50  50  60
HOBBS NM                   84  64  82  64  /  20  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   84  64  78  62  /  60  40  60  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    87  67  88  67  /  20  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  87  67  88  67  /  20  20  20  10
WINK TX                    91  70  87  70  /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/80







000
FXUS64 KMAF 310524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Thu Jul 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Cold front currently pushing through SE NM and Permian Basin...
could still see a few storms along it mainly near CNM and MAF.
Otherwise expect gusty north wind after fropa to continue most of
the night.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Surface troughs located along the west Texas/eastern New Mexico
border and across southeast New Mexico is combining with very
intense heating to produce the development of isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms across the Eddy county plains and
Guadalupe and Davis mountains this afternoon. Expect activity to
continue to increase in coverage tonight across southeast New
Mexico and much of west Texas as low level convergence associated
with a cold front pushes south into the forecast area. Also aiding
in the chance of thunderstorms tonight will be the retrogression
of the upper high from west Texas back west toward Arizona and New
Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River tonight and Thursday. This will push the better chance of
convection to areas mainly south and west of the Pecos River
during the day Thursday. Behind this front high temperatures
Thursday are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
The chance of thunderstorms will continue Thursday night and
expand northeastward again to include the western and central
Permian Basin due to a shortwave tracking into the area from the
northwest with some warm advection taking place above and north of
the front.

For Friday through next Monday the front is forecast to stall
along and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance
of thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south
and west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the front.
Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler air
behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover expected
areawide as well.

Beyond Monday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms going mainly in
the mountains along a surface trough with temperatures warming
toward normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMAF 302338
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
638 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Can expected scattered storms near most TAF sites through the evening
as a cold front approaches the area. Very gusty wind possible
with these storms... blowing dust will reduce vsbys to local MVFR.
Wind will become northerly overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Surface troughs located along the west Texas/eastern New Mexico
border and across southeast New Mexico is combining with very
intense heating to produce the development of isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms across the Eddy county plains and
Guadalupe and Davis mountains this afternoon. Expect activity to
continue to increase in coverage tonight across southeast New
Mexico and much of west Texas as low level convergence associated
with a cold front pushes south into the forecast area. Also aiding
in the chance of thunderstorms tonight will be the retrogression
of the upper high from west Texas back west toward Arizona and New
Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River tonight and Thursday. This will push the better chance of
convection to areas mainly south and west of the Pecos River
during the day Thursday. Behind this front high temperatures
Thursday are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
The chance of thunderstorms will continue Thursday night and
expand northeastward again to include the western and central
Permian Basin due to a shortwave tracking into the area from the
northwest with some warm advection taking place above and north of
the front.

For Friday through next Monday the front is forecast to stall
along and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance
of thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south
and west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the front.
Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler air
behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover expected
areawide as well.

Beyond Monday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms going mainly in
the mountains along a surface trough with temperatures warming
toward normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMAF 302338
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
638 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Can expected scattered storms near most TAF sites through the evening
as a cold front approaches the area. Very gusty wind possible
with these storms... blowing dust will reduce vsbys to local MVFR.
Wind will become northerly overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Surface troughs located along the west Texas/eastern New Mexico
border and across southeast New Mexico is combining with very
intense heating to produce the development of isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms across the Eddy county plains and
Guadalupe and Davis mountains this afternoon. Expect activity to
continue to increase in coverage tonight across southeast New
Mexico and much of west Texas as low level convergence associated
with a cold front pushes south into the forecast area. Also aiding
in the chance of thunderstorms tonight will be the retrogression
of the upper high from west Texas back west toward Arizona and New
Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River tonight and Thursday. This will push the better chance of
convection to areas mainly south and west of the Pecos River
during the day Thursday. Behind this front high temperatures
Thursday are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
The chance of thunderstorms will continue Thursday night and
expand northeastward again to include the western and central
Permian Basin due to a shortwave tracking into the area from the
northwest with some warm advection taking place above and north of
the front.

For Friday through next Monday the front is forecast to stall
along and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance
of thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south
and west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the front.
Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler air
behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover expected
areawide as well.

Beyond Monday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms going mainly in
the mountains along a surface trough with temperatures warming
toward normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMAF 301952
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
252 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Surface troughs located along the west Texas/eastern New Mexico
border and across southeast New Mexico is combining with very
intense heating to produce the development of isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms across the Eddy county plains and
Guadalupe and Davis mountains this afternoon. Expect activity to
continue to increase in coverage tonight across southeast New
Mexico and much of west Texas as low level convergence associated
with a cold front pushes south into the forecast area. Also aiding
in the chance of thunderstorms tonight will be the retrogression
of the upper high from west Texas back west toward Arizona and New
Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River tonight and Thursday. This will push the better chance of
convection to areas mainly south and west of the Pecos River
during the day Thursday. Behind this front high temperatures
Thursday are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
The chance of thunderstorms will continue Thursday night and
expand northeastward again to include the western and central
Permian Basin due to a shortwave tracking into the area from the
northwest with some warm advection taking place above and north of
the front.

For Friday through next Monday the front is forecast to stall
along and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance
of thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south
and west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the front.
Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler air
behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover expected
areawide as well.

Beyond Monday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms going mainly in
the mountains along a surface trough with temperatures warming
toward normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  87  66  86  /  30  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              68  85  68  86  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  85  68  85  /  30  10  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  76  94  74  91  /  10  20  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  90  68  87  /  30  30  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  82  61  79  /  30  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                   66  85  66  83  /  30  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   66  84  66  80  /  30  40  30  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  88  66  87  /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  68  88  67  87  /  30  10  10  20
WINK TX                    72  91  72  90  /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12







000
FXUS64 KMAF 301952
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
252 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Surface troughs located along the west Texas/eastern New Mexico
border and across southeast New Mexico is combining with very
intense heating to produce the development of isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorms across the Eddy county plains and
Guadalupe and Davis mountains this afternoon. Expect activity to
continue to increase in coverage tonight across southeast New
Mexico and much of west Texas as low level convergence associated
with a cold front pushes south into the forecast area. Also aiding
in the chance of thunderstorms tonight will be the retrogression
of the upper high from west Texas back west toward Arizona and New
Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River tonight and Thursday. This will push the better chance of
convection to areas mainly south and west of the Pecos River
during the day Thursday. Behind this front high temperatures
Thursday are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees cooler than today.
The chance of thunderstorms will continue Thursday night and
expand northeastward again to include the western and central
Permian Basin due to a shortwave tracking into the area from the
northwest with some warm advection taking place above and north of
the front.

For Friday through next Monday the front is forecast to stall
along and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance
of thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south
and west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the front.
Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler air
behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover expected
areawide as well.

Beyond Monday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms going mainly in
the mountains along a surface trough with temperatures warming
toward normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  87  66  86  /  30  10  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              68  85  68  86  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  85  68  85  /  30  10  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  76  94  74  91  /  10  20  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  90  68  87  /  30  30  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  82  61  79  /  30  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                   66  85  66  83  /  30  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   66  84  66  80  /  30  40  30  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  88  66  87  /  30  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  68  88  67  87  /  30  10  10  20
WINK TX                    72  91  72  90  /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12






000
FXUS64 KMAF 301706
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight,
especially over southeast New Mexico, the Upper trans Pecos and the
Permian Basin.  Will keep a TSRA mention at KHOB, KINK, KPEQ and
KMAF this afternoon, and introduce TSRA at the rest of the TAF
sites after 31/00Z.  MVFR ceilings could form late tonight and
affect all but KFST and KPEQ.  This will be near the end of the
forecast period, so will not include in this issuance.  67

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

An upper level trough is over the eastern Conus and a shortwave
is moving over Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle on the backside of
this trough. Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across
the above mentioned area as a result of the increased lift. A cold
front associated with this shortwave will move south toward the
CWA today. A surface trough will be present this afternoon ahead
of the front so high temperatures will warm into the triple digits
for many places. There is a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the CWA as the front approaches.

The front will move through the CWA on Thursday with temperatures
behind the front cooling to below normal values.  Chances of showers
and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday with the best chances
being across the higher terrain near the edge of the front.
Precipitation will still be present on Friday in roughly the same
areas as the region remains under northwest flow aloft.  Temperatures
will gradually start to warm up on Friday as the surface high moves
away from the region.  Conditions will be similar on Saturday and on
through the beginning of next week with below normal temperatures
and convection remaining across the area.  Upper ridging will take
shape over the region with precipitation remaining across the higher
terrain the beginning of next week.  During the middle part of next
week, a trough will move over the Upper Midwest with another cold
front approaching the area.  This will contribute to more showers
and thunderstorms developing near the front.  Temperatures are
expected to be near or below normal values in the extended forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 301706
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1206 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and tonight,
especially over southeast New Mexico, the Upper trans Pecos and the
Permian Basin.  Will keep a TSRA mention at KHOB, KINK, KPEQ and
KMAF this afternoon, and introduce TSRA at the rest of the TAF
sites after 31/00Z.  MVFR ceilings could form late tonight and
affect all but KFST and KPEQ.  This will be near the end of the
forecast period, so will not include in this issuance.  67

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

An upper level trough is over the eastern Conus and a shortwave
is moving over Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle on the backside of
this trough. Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across
the above mentioned area as a result of the increased lift. A cold
front associated with this shortwave will move south toward the
CWA today. A surface trough will be present this afternoon ahead
of the front so high temperatures will warm into the triple digits
for many places. There is a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the CWA as the front approaches.

The front will move through the CWA on Thursday with temperatures
behind the front cooling to below normal values.  Chances of showers
and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday with the best chances
being across the higher terrain near the edge of the front.
Precipitation will still be present on Friday in roughly the same
areas as the region remains under northwest flow aloft.  Temperatures
will gradually start to warm up on Friday as the surface high moves
away from the region.  Conditions will be similar on Saturday and on
through the beginning of next week with below normal temperatures
and convection remaining across the area.  Upper ridging will take
shape over the region with precipitation remaining across the higher
terrain the beginning of next week.  During the middle part of next
week, a trough will move over the Upper Midwest with another cold
front approaching the area.  This will contribute to more showers
and thunderstorms developing near the front.  Temperatures are
expected to be near or below normal values in the extended forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMAF 301124
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
SE surface winds less than 10kts will turn to the sw mid morning
and increase 10-15kts as trof develops ahead of front. Opted to
include PROB30 TSRA at MAF/INK/PEQ/HOB 22Z-03Z with strong daytime
heating ahead of front and better mstr/instability in its wake.
Storms that may for s of front will be especially capable of gusty
downburst type winds. Front will be thru all TAFs by 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the eastern conus and a shortwave is
moving over Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle on the backside of this
trough.  Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across the
above mentioned area as a result of the increased lift.  A cold
front associated with this shortwave will move south toward the CWA
today.  A surface trough will be present this afternoon ahead of the
front so high temperatures will warm into the triple digits for many
places.  There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for
the CWA as the front approaches.

The front will move through the CWA on Thursday with temperatures
behind the front cooling to below normal values.  Chances of showers
and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday with the best chances
being across the higher terrain near the edge of the front.
Precipitation will still be present on Friday in roughly the same
areas as the region remains under northwest flow aloft.  Temperatures
will gradually start to warm up on Friday as the surface high moves
away from the region.  Conditions will be similar on Saturday and on
through the beginning of next week with below normal temperatures
and convection remaining across the area.  Upper ridging will take
shape over the region with precipitation remaining across the higher
terrain the beginning of next week.  During the middle part of next
week, a trough will move over the Upper Midwest with another cold
front approaching the area.  This will contribute to more showers
and thunderstorms developing near the front.  Temperatures are
expected to be near or below normal values in the extended forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMAF 301124
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
624 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
SE surface winds less than 10kts will turn to the sw mid morning
and increase 10-15kts as trof develops ahead of front. Opted to
include PROB30 TSRA at MAF/INK/PEQ/HOB 22Z-03Z with strong daytime
heating ahead of front and better mstr/instability in its wake.
Storms that may for s of front will be especially capable of gusty
downburst type winds. Front will be thru all TAFs by 03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the eastern conus and a shortwave is
moving over Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle on the backside of this
trough.  Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across the
above mentioned area as a result of the increased lift.  A cold
front associated with this shortwave will move south toward the CWA
today.  A surface trough will be present this afternoon ahead of the
front so high temperatures will warm into the triple digits for many
places.  There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for
the CWA as the front approaches.

The front will move through the CWA on Thursday with temperatures
behind the front cooling to below normal values.  Chances of showers
and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday with the best chances
being across the higher terrain near the edge of the front.
Precipitation will still be present on Friday in roughly the same
areas as the region remains under northwest flow aloft.  Temperatures
will gradually start to warm up on Friday as the surface high moves
away from the region.  Conditions will be similar on Saturday and on
through the beginning of next week with below normal temperatures
and convection remaining across the area.  Upper ridging will take
shape over the region with precipitation remaining across the higher
terrain the beginning of next week.  During the middle part of next
week, a trough will move over the Upper Midwest with another cold
front approaching the area.  This will contribute to more showers
and thunderstorms developing near the front.  Temperatures are
expected to be near or below normal values in the extended forecast.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMAF 300959
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level trough is over the eastern conus and a shortwave is
moving over Oklahoma and the Texas panhandle on the backside of this
trough.  Showers and thunderstorms are currently moving across the
above mentioned area as a result of the increased lift.  A cold
front associated with this shortwave will move south toward the CWA
today.  A surface trough will be present this afternoon ahead of the
front so high temperatures will warm into the triple digits for many
places.  There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms for
the CWA as the front approaches.

The front will move through the CWA on Thursday with temperatures
behind the front cooling to below normal values.  Chances of showers
and thunderstorms will continue into Thursday with the best chances
being across the higher terrain near the edge of the front.
Precipitation will still be present on Friday in roughly the same
areas as the region remains under northwest flow aloft.  Temperatures
will gradually start to warm up on Friday as the surface high moves
away from the region.  Conditions will be similar on Saturday and on
through the beginning of next week with below normal temperatures
and convection remaining across the area.  Upper ridging will take
shape over the region with precipitation remaining across the higher
terrain the beginning of next week.  During the middle part of next
week, a trough will move over the Upper Midwest with another cold
front approaching the area.  This will contribute to more showers
and thunderstorms developing near the front.  Temperatures are
expected to be near or below normal values in the extended forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                101  68  85  66  /  20  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              98  68  85  68  /  20  20  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                99  70  85  69  /  20  30  20  40
DRYDEN TX                 101  76  96  75  /   0  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX          102  71  88  70  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          93  62  80  64  /  20  30  30  40
HOBBS NM                   97  66  83  64  /  20  30  20  30
MARFA TX                   92  66  85  65  /  30  20  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  69  87  68  /  20  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                 101  68  87  69  /  20  20  20  20
WINK TX                   104  72  91  71  /  20  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/80










000
FXUS64 KMAF 300517
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds slowly turning back to the SE INVOF MAF as wind shift
assocd with earlier outflow boundary wanes. Today another
boundary will turn winds back to the n-ne late this
afternoon/early evening except at FST. There are concerns for
tstms to be near TAF sites this afternoon, but best instability
looks to be in wake of the front where better mstr will be found.
For now will leave tstms out of TAFs since its in the later part
of the fcst, but may include some PROB30 groups on 12Z issuance.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMAF 300517
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1217 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Winds slowly turning back to the SE INVOF MAF as wind shift
assocd with earlier outflow boundary wanes. Today another
boundary will turn winds back to the n-ne late this
afternoon/early evening except at FST. There are concerns for
tstms to be near TAF sites this afternoon, but best instability
looks to be in wake of the front where better mstr will be found.
For now will leave tstms out of TAFs since its in the later part
of the fcst, but may include some PROB30 groups on 12Z issuance.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMAF 292325
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Most of the afternoon storms have moved off to the east and not
expecting much else the rest of the night. Do have a large
boundary on radar across the central Permian Basin that will have
to be monitored for development. The wind field is generally
light and variable but should tend to go around to south by
tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Weak stationary front across the Permian Basin is forecast to
retreat northward tonight and early Wednesday. Will continue
isolated thunderstorms north of the boundary across the extreme
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and the mountains
through Wednesday morning in the cooler air aloft. The boundary
is expected to push back south toward the lower Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains by Thursday morning due to the amplification
of the upper low across eastern Canada. Accordingly the chance of
showers and thunderstorms (slight chance) will increase north of
this boundary later Wednesday and Wednesday night for the northern
and central Permian Basin, upper Trans Pecos and including southeast
New Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River Thursday and Thursday night. This will push the better
chance of convection to areas mainly south and west of the
Pecos River during the day Thursday. Behind this front high
temperatures Thursday are expected to be around 15 degrees
cooler north of the Pecos River. The chance of thunderstorms
will include the entire forecast area Thursday night due to
a shortwave tracking into the area from the northwest with
some warm advection taking place above and behind the front.

For Friday through Sunday the front is forecast to stall along
and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance of
thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south and
west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the
front. Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler
air behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover
expected areawide as well.

Beyond Sunday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
mountains in upslope flow on Monday. The GFS model is indicating
much more widespread convection Monday and Tuesday due to
shortwaves trapped within the upper ridge in the area. The ECMWF
model is not indicating this scenario so will not go with that
solultion this far out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72 102  65  84  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              74 102  67  82  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                72 103  69  87  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  76 108  76  95  /  10   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           73 103  69  91  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  96  62  79  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   68  98  65  86  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                   62  94  66  85  /  10  30  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73 103  68  85  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  75 102  68  86  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    75 106  72  90  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMAF 292325
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
625 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Most of the afternoon storms have moved off to the east and not
expecting much else the rest of the night. Do have a large
boundary on radar across the central Permian Basin that will have
to be monitored for development. The wind field is generally
light and variable but should tend to go around to south by
tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Weak stationary front across the Permian Basin is forecast to
retreat northward tonight and early Wednesday. Will continue
isolated thunderstorms north of the boundary across the extreme
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and the mountains
through Wednesday morning in the cooler air aloft. The boundary
is expected to push back south toward the lower Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains by Thursday morning due to the amplification
of the upper low across eastern Canada. Accordingly the chance of
showers and thunderstorms (slight chance) will increase north of
this boundary later Wednesday and Wednesday night for the northern
and central Permian Basin, upper Trans Pecos and including southeast
New Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River Thursday and Thursday night. This will push the better
chance of convection to areas mainly south and west of the
Pecos River during the day Thursday. Behind this front high
temperatures Thursday are expected to be around 15 degrees
cooler north of the Pecos River. The chance of thunderstorms
will include the entire forecast area Thursday night due to
a shortwave tracking into the area from the northwest with
some warm advection taking place above and behind the front.

For Friday through Sunday the front is forecast to stall along
and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance of
thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south and
west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the
front. Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler
air behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover
expected areawide as well.

Beyond Sunday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
mountains in upslope flow on Monday. The GFS model is indicating
much more widespread convection Monday and Tuesday due to
shortwaves trapped within the upper ridge in the area. The ECMWF
model is not indicating this scenario so will not go with that
solultion this far out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72 102  65  84  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              74 102  67  82  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                72 103  69  87  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  76 108  76  95  /  10   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           73 103  69  91  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  96  62  79  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   68  98  65  86  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                   62  94  66  85  /  10  30  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73 103  68  85  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  75 102  68  86  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    75 106  72  90  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMAF 292000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Weak stationary front across the Permian Basin is forecast to
retreat northward tonight and early Wednesday. Will continue
isolated thunderstorms north of the boundary across the extreme
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and the mountains
through Wednesday morning in the cooler air aloft. The boundary
is expected to push back south toward the lower Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains by Thursday morning due to the amplification
of the upper low across eastern Canada. Accordingly the chance of
showers and thunderstorms (slight chance) will increase north of
this boundary later Wednesday and Wednesday night for the northern
and central Permian Basin, upper Trans Pecos and including southeast
New Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River Thursday and Thursday night. This will push the better
chance of convection to areas mainly south and west of the
Pecos River during the day Thursday. Behind this front high
temperatures Thursday are expected to be around 15 degrees
cooler north of the Pecos River. The chance of thunderstorms
will include the entire forecast area Thursday night due to
a shortwave tracking into the area from the northwest with
some warm advection taking place above and behind the front.

For Friday through Sunday the front is forecast to stall along
and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance of
thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south and
west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the
front. Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler
air behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover
expected areawide as well.

Beyond Sunday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
mountains in upslope flow on Monday. The GFS model is indicating
much more widespread convection Monday and Tuesday due to
shortwaves trapped within the upper ridge in the area. The ECMWF
model is not indicating this scenario so will not go with that
solultion this far out.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72 102  65  84  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              74 102  67  82  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                72 103  69  87  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  76 108  76  95  /  10   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           73 103  69  91  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  96  62  79  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   68  98  65  86  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                   62  94  66  85  /  10  30  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73 103  68  85  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  75 102  68  86  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    75 106  72  90  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/12






000
FXUS64 KMAF 292000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Weak stationary front across the Permian Basin is forecast to
retreat northward tonight and early Wednesday. Will continue
isolated thunderstorms north of the boundary across the extreme
northern Permian Basin, southeast New Mexico and the mountains
through Wednesday morning in the cooler air aloft. The boundary
is expected to push back south toward the lower Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains by Thursday morning due to the amplification
of the upper low across eastern Canada. Accordingly the chance of
showers and thunderstorms (slight chance) will increase north of
this boundary later Wednesday and Wednesday night for the northern
and central Permian Basin, upper Trans Pecos and including southeast
New Mexico.

The cold front will continue to push south toward the Rio Grande
River Thursday and Thursday night. This will push the better
chance of convection to areas mainly south and west of the
Pecos River during the day Thursday. Behind this front high
temperatures Thursday are expected to be around 15 degrees
cooler north of the Pecos River. The chance of thunderstorms
will include the entire forecast area Thursday night due to
a shortwave tracking into the area from the northwest with
some warm advection taking place above and behind the front.

For Friday through Sunday the front is forecast to stall along
and or near the Rio Grande River. This will keep the chance of
thunderstorms continuing through all these periods mainly south and
west of the Pecos River with the best chance in the mountains
closest to the front with unstable upslope flow behind the
front. Temperatures are expected to be below normal in the cooler
air behind the front with a significant amount of cloud cover
expected areawide as well.

Beyond Sunday kept a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
mountains in upslope flow on Monday. The GFS model is indicating
much more widespread convection Monday and Tuesday due to
shortwaves trapped within the upper ridge in the area. The ECMWF
model is not indicating this scenario so will not go with that
solultion this far out.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72 102  65  84  /  10  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              74 102  67  82  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                72 103  69  87  /  10  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  76 108  76  95  /  10   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           73 103  69  91  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  96  62  79  /  20  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   68  98  65  86  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                   62  94  66  85  /  10  30  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73 103  68  85  /  10  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  75 102  68  86  /  10  10  20  10
WINK TX                    75 106  72  90  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/12







000
FXUS64 KMAF 291657
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1157 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with no significant weather will be the rule across
southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals through 18Z
Wednesday. An area of rain and embedded thunderstorms is expected
to remain north of CNM and HOB through the afternoon. Redevelopment
of thunderstorms in this area is likely, though activity will
continue to remain mainly north with only slight chances of
thunderstorms at CNM and HOB and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere
with chances too small to include in terminal forecasts. Winds
will be generally south to southeast at 10 to 15 knots this
afternoon and into the evening with a few gusts mainly in the Permian
Basin area including MAF. Overnight and into Wednesday morning,
winds will become mostly southerly at less than 10 knots.
Cloudiness will be mostly constrained to southeast New Mexico with
broken mid- and upper- level clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
out of the south to southeast with some possible gusts this afternoon.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms through the period, but
probabilities remain low so left out of TAFS for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Tstms have moved into the far NW CWFA and are slowly
moving/developing to the e-se, but looks like intensity is steady
or slowly weakening. We made some adjustment to short term PoPs
and wx grids to account for increased rain chances this morning
in far NW CWFA. Otherwise model consensus for today is that the
subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF srn AZ leaving much of
the CWFA in NW flow aloft. Meanwhile radar last showed surface
boundary nearing the Pecos River and still pushing s. There is
some hint in the MSLP/surface wind fields for this PM that a
boundary will be oriented NW-SE across the far nrn CWFA or just to
the n of it. SB LI fields this PM indicate best instability will
be from the Davis Mtns w-nw and then across the far nw-n CWFA.
This is what models were depicting several days ago and we will
orient low order PoPs as such btwn 18Z-06Z. Wed all models agree
it will be hot and that n of the cold front it will be much more
unstable. GFS has come around to the ECMWF`s solution from a few
days ago with an earlier FROPA. Most areas s of I-20 will remain
stable. Models agree fairly well that in evening as front moves
into the PB the chance of SHRA/TSRA will increase, which is
generally what we have in the current forecast and will make only
minor changes. There`s a good chance that this early arrival of
front will result in diminished chance of precip Thur PM, especially
n of I-20. As such will need to re-orient PoPs in grids for Thur
PM. The good news is Thur will be much cooler, approximately 5-10
below normal n of I-20. Still we will need to watch in the NW flow
aloft Thur night/early Fri AM for possibility of storms across
w-nw. Moist upslope flow will favor isold/slght chc PoPs in the
mtns Fri/Sat PM. Sun/Mon looks dry with monsoonal moisture
focusing across wrn NM/AZ. 5h heights remain low too and MEX
guidance optimistically keep lows in the mid to upper 60s Thur-
Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05









000
FXUS64 KMAF 291657
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1157 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with no significant weather will be the rule across
southwest Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals through 18Z
Wednesday. An area of rain and embedded thunderstorms is expected
to remain north of CNM and HOB through the afternoon. Redevelopment
of thunderstorms in this area is likely, though activity will
continue to remain mainly north with only slight chances of
thunderstorms at CNM and HOB and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere
with chances too small to include in terminal forecasts. Winds
will be generally south to southeast at 10 to 15 knots this
afternoon and into the evening with a few gusts mainly in the Permian
Basin area including MAF. Overnight and into Wednesday morning,
winds will become mostly southerly at less than 10 knots.
Cloudiness will be mostly constrained to southeast New Mexico with
broken mid- and upper- level clouds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
out of the south to southeast with some possible gusts this afternoon.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms through the period, but
probabilities remain low so left out of TAFS for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Tstms have moved into the far NW CWFA and are slowly
moving/developing to the e-se, but looks like intensity is steady
or slowly weakening. We made some adjustment to short term PoPs
and wx grids to account for increased rain chances this morning
in far NW CWFA. Otherwise model consensus for today is that the
subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF srn AZ leaving much of
the CWFA in NW flow aloft. Meanwhile radar last showed surface
boundary nearing the Pecos River and still pushing s. There is
some hint in the MSLP/surface wind fields for this PM that a
boundary will be oriented NW-SE across the far nrn CWFA or just to
the n of it. SB LI fields this PM indicate best instability will
be from the Davis Mtns w-nw and then across the far nw-n CWFA.
This is what models were depicting several days ago and we will
orient low order PoPs as such btwn 18Z-06Z. Wed all models agree
it will be hot and that n of the cold front it will be much more
unstable. GFS has come around to the ECMWF`s solution from a few
days ago with an earlier FROPA. Most areas s of I-20 will remain
stable. Models agree fairly well that in evening as front moves
into the PB the chance of SHRA/TSRA will increase, which is
generally what we have in the current forecast and will make only
minor changes. There`s a good chance that this early arrival of
front will result in diminished chance of precip Thur PM, especially
n of I-20. As such will need to re-orient PoPs in grids for Thur
PM. The good news is Thur will be much cooler, approximately 5-10
below normal n of I-20. Still we will need to watch in the NW flow
aloft Thur night/early Fri AM for possibility of storms across
w-nw. Moist upslope flow will favor isold/slght chc PoPs in the
mtns Fri/Sat PM. Sun/Mon looks dry with monsoonal moisture
focusing across wrn NM/AZ. 5h heights remain low too and MEX
guidance optimistically keep lows in the mid to upper 60s Thur-
Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05








000
FXUS64 KMAF 291123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
out of the south to southeast with some possible gusts this afternoon.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms through the period, but
probabilities remain low so left out of TAFS for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Tstms have moved into the far NW CWFA and are slowly
moving/developing to the e-se, but looks like intensity is steady
or slowly weakening. We made some adjustment to short term PoPs
and wx grids to account for increased rain chances this morning
in far NW CWFA. Otherwise model consensus for today is that the
subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF srn AZ leaving much of
the CWFA in NW flow aloft. Meanwhile radar last showed surface
boundary nearing the Pecos River and still pushing s. There is
some hint in the MSLP/surface wind fields for this PM that a
boundary will be oriented NW-SE across the far nrn CWFA or just to
the n of it. SB LI fields this PM indicate best instability will
be from the Davis Mtns w-nw and then across the far nw-n CWFA.
This is what models were depicting several days ago and we will
orient low order PoPs as such btwn 18Z-06Z. Wed all models agree
it will be hot and that n of the cold front it will be much more
unstable. GFS has come around to the ECMWF`s solution from a few
days ago with an earlier FROPA. Most areas s of I-20 will remain
stable. Models agree fairly well that in evening as front moves
into the PB the chance of SHRA/TSRA will increase, which is
generally what we have in the current forecast and will make only
minor changes. There`s a good chance that this early arrival of
front will result in diminished chance of precip Thur PM, especially
n of I-20. As such will need to re-orient PoPs in grids for Thur
PM. The good news is Thur will be much cooler, approximately 5-10
below normal n of I-20. Still we will need to watch in the NW flow
aloft Thur night/early Fri AM for possibility of storms across
w-nw. Moist upslope flow will favor isold/slght chc PoPs in the
mtns Fri/Sat PM. Sun/Mon looks dry with monsoonal moisture
focusing across wrn NM/AZ. 5h heights remain low too and MEX
guidance optimistically keep lows in the mid to upper 60s Thur-
Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99








000
FXUS64 KMAF 291123
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
615 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 12z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
out of the south to southeast with some possible gusts this afternoon.
There is a slight chance of thunderstorms through the period, but
probabilities remain low so left out of TAFS for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Tstms have moved into the far NW CWFA and are slowly
moving/developing to the e-se, but looks like intensity is steady
or slowly weakening. We made some adjustment to short term PoPs
and wx grids to account for increased rain chances this morning
in far NW CWFA. Otherwise model consensus for today is that the
subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF srn AZ leaving much of
the CWFA in NW flow aloft. Meanwhile radar last showed surface
boundary nearing the Pecos River and still pushing s. There is
some hint in the MSLP/surface wind fields for this PM that a
boundary will be oriented NW-SE across the far nrn CWFA or just to
the n of it. SB LI fields this PM indicate best instability will
be from the Davis Mtns w-nw and then across the far nw-n CWFA.
This is what models were depicting several days ago and we will
orient low order PoPs as such btwn 18Z-06Z. Wed all models agree
it will be hot and that n of the cold front it will be much more
unstable. GFS has come around to the ECMWF`s solution from a few
days ago with an earlier FROPA. Most areas s of I-20 will remain
stable. Models agree fairly well that in evening as front moves
into the PB the chance of SHRA/TSRA will increase, which is
generally what we have in the current forecast and will make only
minor changes. There`s a good chance that this early arrival of
front will result in diminished chance of precip Thur PM, especially
n of I-20. As such will need to re-orient PoPs in grids for Thur
PM. The good news is Thur will be much cooler, approximately 5-10
below normal n of I-20. Still we will need to watch in the NW flow
aloft Thur night/early Fri AM for possibility of storms across
w-nw. Moist upslope flow will favor isold/slght chc PoPs in the
mtns Fri/Sat PM. Sun/Mon looks dry with monsoonal moisture
focusing across wrn NM/AZ. 5h heights remain low too and MEX
guidance optimistically keep lows in the mid to upper 60s Thur-
Tue.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99







000
FXUS64 KMAF 290841
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
341 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Tstms have moved into the far NW CWFA and are slowly
moving/developing to the e-se, but looks like intensity is steady
or slowly weakening. We made some adjustment to short term PoPs
and wx grids to account for increased rain chances this morning
in far NW CWFA. Otherwise model consensus for today is that the
subtropical ridge will be centered INVOF srn AZ leaving much of
the CWFA in NW flow aloft. Meanwhile radar last showed surface
boundary nearing the Pecos River and still pushing s. There is
some hint in the MSLP/surface wind fields for this PM that a
boundary will be oriented NW-SE across the far nrn CWFA or just to
the n of it. SB LI fields this PM indicate best instability will
be from the Davis Mtns w-nw and then across the far nw-n CWFA.
This is what models were depicting several days ago and we will
orient low order PoPs as such btwn 18Z-06Z. Wed all models agree
it will be hot and that n of the cold front it will be much more
unstable. GFS has come around to the ECMWF`s solution from a few
days ago with an earlier FROPA. Most areas s of I-20 will remain
stable. Models agree fairly well that in evening as front moves
into the PB the chance of SHRA/TSRA will increase, which is
generally what we have in the current forecast and will make only
minor changes. There`s a good chance that this early arrival of
front will result in diminished chance of precip Thur PM, especially
n of I-20. As such will need to re-orient PoPs in grids for Thur
PM. The good news is Thur will be much cooler, approximately 5-10
below normal n of I-20. Still we will need to watch in the NW flow
aloft Thur night/early Fri AM for possibility of storms across
w-nw. Moist upslope flow will favor isold/slght chc PoPs in the
mtns Fri/Sat PM. Sun/Mon looks dry with monsoonal moisture
focusing across wrn NM/AZ. 5h heights remain low too and MEX
guidance optimistically keep lows in the mid to upper 60s Thur-
Tue.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 94  72  98  64  /  10  10  10  30
BIG SPRING TX              94  75 100  68  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                98  73 101  69  /  20  10  10  30
DRYDEN TX                 103  78 106  78  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  73 101  69  /  10  10  10  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          87  70  94  60  /  20  20  10  30
HOBBS NM                   92  69  96  65  /  20  10  10  30
MARFA TX                   88  63  92  65  /  10  10  10  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  74 101  67  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                  95  75 100  67  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                   100  75 102  72  /  10  10  10  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMAF 290523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
out of the southeast overnight and will gradually weaken over the
next few hours.  Winds will become southerly Tuesday afternoon with
some possible gusts.  There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for
HOB through the period, but probabilities remain low so left out of
TAFS for now.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered directly over West
Texas/SE NM, a bit further south than 24 hours ago.  However, the
ridge has weakened slightly, and w/abundant cloud cover noted on vis
sat imagery and out the window, temperatures are noticeably cooler
this afternoon than yesterday. Yesterday`s boundary that stalled
north of the FA finally moved south this morning/afternoon,
spawning an almost instantaneous cu field along and behind it.
Area radars show a few cells trying to develop near KSWW, near a
bullseye of 2000+ sbcape over KSNK. The NAM develops stronger
convection on a vort max moving into east central NM this evening,
but that should stay mostly north of here. Aside from that, we`ve
inserted isolated POPs this evening...mainly north of the Pecos
along the boundary. NAM then hints at moving this feature back
north overnight, which will serve as a focus for Tuesday over the
northern zones.

Temps Tuesday should be similar to today`s, but temps are still on
tap to climb back into the triple digits Wednesday afternoon as
thicknesses spike and south winds increase in response to leeside
troughing.  However, a cold front is still on tap to move into the
area Wednesday night.  Models are considerably stronger w/this
feature than 24 hours ago, and this looks to the best focus/trigger
for convection this forecast.  Models hint at a high wind event for
post-frontal gap winds at KGDP...but given winds from the
N-NE...we`ll not bite on this just yet...as a more E-W orientation
is preferred.  Thursday afternoon looks cool, w/H85 temps in the NE
zones in the upper teens by 00Z Friday.  Much will depend on extent
of Wednesday night`s rainfall, and residual cloud cover behind the
front.

Friday, things begin warming back up as the upper ridge sets up over
the Four Corners more or less into the extended.  However, temps
should remain below normal as thicknesses don`t budge much and the
CWA remains in easterly or even northeasterly flow.  Again, w/no
triggers to focus on, and minor disturbances moving thru the east
side of the ridge, cannot rule out the low-POP, shotgun scenario
currently in the grids.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99









000
FXUS64 KMAF 290523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1219 AM CDT Tue Jul 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.  Winds will be
out of the southeast overnight and will gradually weaken over the
next few hours.  Winds will become southerly Tuesday afternoon with
some possible gusts.  There is a slight chance of thunderstorms for
HOB through the period, but probabilities remain low so left out of
TAFS for now.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered directly over West
Texas/SE NM, a bit further south than 24 hours ago.  However, the
ridge has weakened slightly, and w/abundant cloud cover noted on vis
sat imagery and out the window, temperatures are noticeably cooler
this afternoon than yesterday. Yesterday`s boundary that stalled
north of the FA finally moved south this morning/afternoon,
spawning an almost instantaneous cu field along and behind it.
Area radars show a few cells trying to develop near KSWW, near a
bullseye of 2000+ sbcape over KSNK. The NAM develops stronger
convection on a vort max moving into east central NM this evening,
but that should stay mostly north of here. Aside from that, we`ve
inserted isolated POPs this evening...mainly north of the Pecos
along the boundary. NAM then hints at moving this feature back
north overnight, which will serve as a focus for Tuesday over the
northern zones.

Temps Tuesday should be similar to today`s, but temps are still on
tap to climb back into the triple digits Wednesday afternoon as
thicknesses spike and south winds increase in response to leeside
troughing.  However, a cold front is still on tap to move into the
area Wednesday night.  Models are considerably stronger w/this
feature than 24 hours ago, and this looks to the best focus/trigger
for convection this forecast.  Models hint at a high wind event for
post-frontal gap winds at KGDP...but given winds from the
N-NE...we`ll not bite on this just yet...as a more E-W orientation
is preferred.  Thursday afternoon looks cool, w/H85 temps in the NE
zones in the upper teens by 00Z Friday.  Much will depend on extent
of Wednesday night`s rainfall, and residual cloud cover behind the
front.

Friday, things begin warming back up as the upper ridge sets up over
the Four Corners more or less into the extended.  However, temps
should remain below normal as thicknesses don`t budge much and the
CWA remains in easterly or even northeasterly flow.  Again, w/no
triggers to focus on, and minor disturbances moving thru the east
side of the ridge, cannot rule out the low-POP, shotgun scenario
currently in the grids.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99










000
FXUS64 KMAF 282304
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
604 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over New Mexico this evening
and tonight.  Probabilities are too low to include at KCNM or KHOB
though.  Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail areawide
during the next 24 hours.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered directly over West
Texas/SE NM, a bit further south than 24 hours ago.  However, the
ridge has weakened slightly, and w/abundant cloud cover noted on vis
sat imagery and out the window, temperatures are noticeably cooler
this afternoon than yesterday. Yesterday`s boundary that stalled
north of the FA finally moved south this morning/afternoon,
spawning an almost instantaneous cu field along and behind it.
Area radars show a few cells trying to develop near KSWW, near a
bullseye of 2000+ sbcape over KSNK. The NAM develops stronger
convection on a vort max moving into east central NM this evening,
but that should stay mostly north of here. Aside from that, we`ve
inserted isolated POPs this evening...mainly north of the Pecos
along the boundary. NAM then hints at moving this feature back
north overnight, which will serve as a focus for Tuesday over the
northern zones.

Temps Tuesday should be similar to today`s, but temps are still on
tap to climb back into the triple digits Wednesday afternoon as
thicknesses spike and south winds increase in response to leeside
troughing.  However, a cold front is still on tap to move into the
area Wednesday night.  Models are considerably stronger w/this
feature than 24 hours ago, and this looks to the best focus/trigger
for convection this forecast.  Models hint at a high wind event for
post-frontal gap winds at KGDP...but given winds from the
N-NE...we`ll not bite on this just yet...as a more E-W orientation
is preferred.  Thursday afternoon looks cool, w/H85 temps in the NE
zones in the upper teens by 00Z Friday.  Much will depend on extent
of Wednesday night`s rainfall, and residual cloud cover behind the
front.

Friday, things begin warming back up as the upper ridge sets up over
the Four Corners more or less into the extended.  However, temps
should remain below normal as thicknesses don`t budge much and the
CWA remains in easterly or even northeasterly flow.  Again, w/no
triggers to focus on, and minor disturbances moving thru the east
side of the ridge, cannot rule out the low-POP, shotgun scenario
currently in the grids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              74  95  73 100  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  95  69 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  76  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  98  73 102  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  86  72  89  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   71  94  70  98  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  88  62  90  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  76  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    76 101  74 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44







000
FXUS64 KMAF 282304
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
604 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop over New Mexico this evening
and tonight.  Probabilities are too low to include at KCNM or KHOB
though.  Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail areawide
during the next 24 hours.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered directly over West
Texas/SE NM, a bit further south than 24 hours ago.  However, the
ridge has weakened slightly, and w/abundant cloud cover noted on vis
sat imagery and out the window, temperatures are noticeably cooler
this afternoon than yesterday. Yesterday`s boundary that stalled
north of the FA finally moved south this morning/afternoon,
spawning an almost instantaneous cu field along and behind it.
Area radars show a few cells trying to develop near KSWW, near a
bullseye of 2000+ sbcape over KSNK. The NAM develops stronger
convection on a vort max moving into east central NM this evening,
but that should stay mostly north of here. Aside from that, we`ve
inserted isolated POPs this evening...mainly north of the Pecos
along the boundary. NAM then hints at moving this feature back
north overnight, which will serve as a focus for Tuesday over the
northern zones.

Temps Tuesday should be similar to today`s, but temps are still on
tap to climb back into the triple digits Wednesday afternoon as
thicknesses spike and south winds increase in response to leeside
troughing.  However, a cold front is still on tap to move into the
area Wednesday night.  Models are considerably stronger w/this
feature than 24 hours ago, and this looks to the best focus/trigger
for convection this forecast.  Models hint at a high wind event for
post-frontal gap winds at KGDP...but given winds from the
N-NE...we`ll not bite on this just yet...as a more E-W orientation
is preferred.  Thursday afternoon looks cool, w/H85 temps in the NE
zones in the upper teens by 00Z Friday.  Much will depend on extent
of Wednesday night`s rainfall, and residual cloud cover behind the
front.

Friday, things begin warming back up as the upper ridge sets up over
the Four Corners more or less into the extended.  However, temps
should remain below normal as thicknesses don`t budge much and the
CWA remains in easterly or even northeasterly flow.  Again, w/no
triggers to focus on, and minor disturbances moving thru the east
side of the ridge, cannot rule out the low-POP, shotgun scenario
currently in the grids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              74  95  73 100  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  95  69 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  76  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  98  73 102  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  86  72  89  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   71  94  70  98  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  88  62  90  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  76  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    76 101  74 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44






000
FXUS64 KMAF 282000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered directly over West
Texas/SE NM, a bit further south than 24 hours ago.  However, the
ridge has weakened slightly, and w/abundant cloud cover noted ob vis
sat imagery and out the window, temperatures are noticeably cooler
this afternoon than yesterday.  Yesterday`s boundary that stalled
north of the FA finally moved south this morning/afternoon, spawning
an almost instantaneous cu field along and behind it.  Area radars
show a few cells trying to develop near KSWW, near a bullseye of
2000+ sbcape over KSNK.  The NAM develops stronger convection on a
vort max moving into east central NM this evening, but that should
stay mostly north of here.  Aside from that, we`ve inserted isolated
POPs this evening...mainly north of the Pecos along the boundary.
NAM then hints at moving this feature back north overnight, which
will serve as a focus for Tuesday over the northern
zones.

Temps Tuesday should be similar to today`s, but temps are still on
tap to climb back into the triple digits Wednesday afternoon as
thicknesses spike and south winds increase in response to leeside
troughing.  However, a cold front is still on tap to move into the
area Wednesday night.  Models are considerably stronger w/this
feature than 24 hours ago, and this looks to the best focus/trigger
for convection this forecast.  Models hint at a high wind event for
post-frontal gap winds at KGDP...but given winds from the
N-NE...we`ll not bite on this just yet...as a more E-W orientation
is preferred.  Thursday afternoon looks cool, w/H85 temps in the NE
zones in the upper teens by 00Z Friday.  Much will depend on extent
of Wednesday night`s rainfall, and residual cloud cover behind the
front.

Friday, things begin warming back up as the upper ridge sets up over
the Four Corners more or less into the extended.  However, temps
should remain below normal as thicknesses don`t budge much and the
CWA remains in easterly or even northeasterly flow.  Again, w/no
triggers to focus on, and minor disturbances moving thru the east
side of the ridge, cannot rule out the low-POP, shotgun scenario
currently in the grids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              74  95  73 100  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  95  69 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  76  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  98  73 102  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  86  72  89  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   71  94  70  98  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  88  62  90  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  76  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    76 101  74 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44






000
FXUS64 KMAF 282000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
300 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered directly over West
Texas/SE NM, a bit further south than 24 hours ago.  However, the
ridge has weakened slightly, and w/abundant cloud cover noted ob vis
sat imagery and out the window, temperatures are noticeably cooler
this afternoon than yesterday.  Yesterday`s boundary that stalled
north of the FA finally moved south this morning/afternoon, spawning
an almost instantaneous cu field along and behind it.  Area radars
show a few cells trying to develop near KSWW, near a bullseye of
2000+ sbcape over KSNK.  The NAM develops stronger convection on a
vort max moving into east central NM this evening, but that should
stay mostly north of here.  Aside from that, we`ve inserted isolated
POPs this evening...mainly north of the Pecos along the boundary.
NAM then hints at moving this feature back north overnight, which
will serve as a focus for Tuesday over the northern
zones.

Temps Tuesday should be similar to today`s, but temps are still on
tap to climb back into the triple digits Wednesday afternoon as
thicknesses spike and south winds increase in response to leeside
troughing.  However, a cold front is still on tap to move into the
area Wednesday night.  Models are considerably stronger w/this
feature than 24 hours ago, and this looks to the best focus/trigger
for convection this forecast.  Models hint at a high wind event for
post-frontal gap winds at KGDP...but given winds from the
N-NE...we`ll not bite on this just yet...as a more E-W orientation
is preferred.  Thursday afternoon looks cool, w/H85 temps in the NE
zones in the upper teens by 00Z Friday.  Much will depend on extent
of Wednesday night`s rainfall, and residual cloud cover behind the
front.

Friday, things begin warming back up as the upper ridge sets up over
the Four Corners more or less into the extended.  However, temps
should remain below normal as thicknesses don`t budge much and the
CWA remains in easterly or even northeasterly flow.  Again, w/no
triggers to focus on, and minor disturbances moving thru the east
side of the ridge, cannot rule out the low-POP, shotgun scenario
currently in the grids.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              74  95  73 100  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                74  95  69 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  76  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  98  73 102  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  86  72  89  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   71  94  70  98  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   60  88  62  90  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  96  73 101  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  76  96  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    76 101  74 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44







000
FXUS64 KMAF 281731
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Cold front across the
northern Permian Basin is expected to push south toward the central
Permian Basin and then stall before moving north again late tonight.
With an upper ridge over the region confidence was not high enough
at this time to mention any thunderstorms at any of the terminals
at this time. Will continue to monitor. Winds will generally be
easterly at 10 to 20 mph and gusty this afternoon. Winds should
generally diminish to 10 mph or less early this evening and
continue overnight.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. A front continues to slowly sink south
toward HOB this morning and may finally make it near MAF by late
morning. Expect strong easterly winds at both HOB and MAF through
the afternoon. Elsewhere, SE winds are expected to increase
throughout the morning then diminish after sunset. Could see some
isolated convection develop along/near the front this afternoon and
evening, possibly affecting HOB, CNM and MAF but will hold off on
any mention of this in the TAF for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The Subtropical ridge centered over the TX/NM border this morning
extends northward into Canada.  This center of this high will slowly
shift west the next few days as a large upper trough deepens over
the Eastern U.S.  This will allow for slightly cooler temps to
return to the region with increasing rain chances.

Have had storms over NE NM and the Panhandle most of the night which
have put out a good outflow reinforcing a weak front moving into
northern CWA as of 08z.  Thunderstorm development between Fort
Davis and Pine Springs has been on the increase and these may
continue until morning.  Latest MAF sounding had PW back to near
1.25 inches so locally could have some good rainfall for those
lucky enough to get rain.  The front should not make it too far
into the area before stalling out and trying to lift back to the
north Tuesday.  Not expecting much of a wind shift with the front
but surface wind should become easterly today across the area.

Had another unusually warm night with midnight temps generally in
the 80s but had 90 at Presidio and 91 at Carlsbad.  Also had more
clouds over the western half of the area that was slowing cooling.
There have been 6 days of 100 degrees during July at MAF but all
have been in the last 8 days.  Will cancel heat advisory for along
the Rio Grande with morning forecast issuance as highs today should
be 100 to 103 along the Rio Grande.  Highs for most of the rest of
the area should return to the upper 90s.  Highs across the Permian
Basin could briefly return to near 100 again on Wednesday.  Another
front looks to blow through the area Wednesday late afternoon or early
evening with a gusty north wind which will be unusually strong for
the middle of summer.  This will bring below normal temps to the region
for a few days with guidance trying to push highs down into the 80s
by the weekend.  Kept forecast on the warm side of guidance.

Rain chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday with the second front.
Will leave the widespread low pops in the extended... expect pops to
increase for some of these days as they get closer.  Current long
range GFS looks very wet for Saturday but still a long ways out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  72  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              96  71  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                98  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  98  76  98  74  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  69  89  71  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  71  95  71  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   90  60  89  61  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    98  73  97  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  97  73  97  76  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  75 101  75  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/72







000
FXUS64 KMAF 281731
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1231 PM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. Cold front across the
northern Permian Basin is expected to push south toward the central
Permian Basin and then stall before moving north again late tonight.
With an upper ridge over the region confidence was not high enough
at this time to mention any thunderstorms at any of the terminals
at this time. Will continue to monitor. Winds will generally be
easterly at 10 to 20 mph and gusty this afternoon. Winds should
generally diminish to 10 mph or less early this evening and
continue overnight.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. A front continues to slowly sink south
toward HOB this morning and may finally make it near MAF by late
morning. Expect strong easterly winds at both HOB and MAF through
the afternoon. Elsewhere, SE winds are expected to increase
throughout the morning then diminish after sunset. Could see some
isolated convection develop along/near the front this afternoon and
evening, possibly affecting HOB, CNM and MAF but will hold off on
any mention of this in the TAF for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The Subtropical ridge centered over the TX/NM border this morning
extends northward into Canada.  This center of this high will slowly
shift west the next few days as a large upper trough deepens over
the Eastern U.S.  This will allow for slightly cooler temps to
return to the region with increasing rain chances.

Have had storms over NE NM and the Panhandle most of the night which
have put out a good outflow reinforcing a weak front moving into
northern CWA as of 08z.  Thunderstorm development between Fort
Davis and Pine Springs has been on the increase and these may
continue until morning.  Latest MAF sounding had PW back to near
1.25 inches so locally could have some good rainfall for those
lucky enough to get rain.  The front should not make it too far
into the area before stalling out and trying to lift back to the
north Tuesday.  Not expecting much of a wind shift with the front
but surface wind should become easterly today across the area.

Had another unusually warm night with midnight temps generally in
the 80s but had 90 at Presidio and 91 at Carlsbad.  Also had more
clouds over the western half of the area that was slowing cooling.
There have been 6 days of 100 degrees during July at MAF but all
have been in the last 8 days.  Will cancel heat advisory for along
the Rio Grande with morning forecast issuance as highs today should
be 100 to 103 along the Rio Grande.  Highs for most of the rest of
the area should return to the upper 90s.  Highs across the Permian
Basin could briefly return to near 100 again on Wednesday.  Another
front looks to blow through the area Wednesday late afternoon or early
evening with a gusty north wind which will be unusually strong for
the middle of summer.  This will bring below normal temps to the region
for a few days with guidance trying to push highs down into the 80s
by the weekend.  Kept forecast on the warm side of guidance.

Rain chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday with the second front.
Will leave the widespread low pops in the extended... expect pops to
increase for some of these days as they get closer.  Current long
range GFS looks very wet for Saturday but still a long ways out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 96  72  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              96  71  97  72  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                98  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  98  76  98  74  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  73  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          90  69  89  71  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  71  95  71  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   90  60  89  61  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    98  73  97  73  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  97  73  97  76  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   101  75 101  75  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/72






000
FXUS64 KMAF 281120
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. A front continues to slowly sink south
toward HOB this morning and may finally make it near MAF by late
morning. Expect strong easterly winds at both HOB and MAF through
the afternoon. Elsewhere, SE winds are expected to increase
throughout the morning then diminish after sunset. Could see some
isolated convection develop along/near the front this afternoon and
evening, possibly affecting HOB, CNM and MAF but will hold off on
any mention of this in the TAF for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The Subtropical ridge centered over the TX/NM border this morning
extends northward into Canada.  This center of this high will slowly
shift west the next few days as a large upper trough deepens over
the Eastern U.S.  This will allow for slightly cooler temps to
return to the region with increasing rain chances.

Have had storms over NE NM and the Panhandle most of the night which
have put out a good outflow reinforcing a weak front moving into
northern CWA as of 08z.  Thunderstorm development between Fort
Davis and Pine Springs has been on the increase and these may
continue until morning.  Latest MAF sounding had PW back to near
1.25 inches so locally could have some good rainfall for those
lucky enough to get rain.  The front should not make it too far
into the area before stalling out and trying to lift back to the
north Tuesday.  Not expecting much of a wind shift with the front
but surface wind should become easterly today across the area.

Had another unusually warm night with midnight temps generally in
the 80s but had 90 at Presidio and 91 at Carlsbad.  Also had more
clouds over the western half of the area that was slowing cooling.
There have been 6 days of 100 degrees during July at MAF but all
have been in the last 8 days.  Will cancel heat advisory for along
the Rio Grande with morning forecast issuance as highs today should
be 100 to 103 along the Rio Grande.  Highs for most of the rest of
the area should return to the upper 90s.  Highs across the Permian
Basin could briefly return to near 100 again on Wednesday.  Another
front looks to blow through the area Wednesday late afternoon or early
evening with a gusty north wind which will be unusually strong for
the middle of summer.  This will bring below normal temps to the region
for a few days with guidance trying to push highs down into the 80s
by the weekend.  Kept forecast on the warm side of guidance.

Rain chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday with the second front.
Will leave the widespread low pops in the extended... expect pops to
increase for some of these days as they get closer.  Current long
range GFS looks very wet for Saturday but still a long ways out.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KMAF 281120
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected at all TAF sites. A front continues to slowly sink south
toward HOB this morning and may finally make it near MAF by late
morning. Expect strong easterly winds at both HOB and MAF through
the afternoon. Elsewhere, SE winds are expected to increase
throughout the morning then diminish after sunset. Could see some
isolated convection develop along/near the front this afternoon and
evening, possibly affecting HOB, CNM and MAF but will hold off on
any mention of this in the TAF for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Mon Jul 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The Subtropical ridge centered over the TX/NM border this morning
extends northward into Canada.  This center of this high will slowly
shift west the next few days as a large upper trough deepens over
the Eastern U.S.  This will allow for slightly cooler temps to
return to the region with increasing rain chances.

Have had storms over NE NM and the Panhandle most of the night which
have put out a good outflow reinforcing a weak front moving into
northern CWA as of 08z.  Thunderstorm development between Fort
Davis and Pine Springs has been on the increase and these may
continue until morning.  Latest MAF sounding had PW back to near
1.25 inches so locally could have some good rainfall for those
lucky enough to get rain.  The front should not make it too far
into the area before stalling out and trying to lift back to the
north Tuesday.  Not expecting much of a wind shift with the front
but surface wind should become easterly today across the area.

Had another unusually warm night with midnight temps generally in
the 80s but had 90 at Presidio and 91 at Carlsbad.  Also had more
clouds over the western half of the area that was slowing cooling.
There have been 6 days of 100 degrees during July at MAF but all
have been in the last 8 days.  Will cancel heat advisory for along
the Rio Grande with morning forecast issuance as highs today should
be 100 to 103 along the Rio Grande.  Highs for most of the rest of
the area should return to the upper 90s.  Highs across the Permian
Basin could briefly return to near 100 again on Wednesday.  Another
front looks to blow through the area Wednesday late afternoon or early
evening with a gusty north wind which will be unusually strong for
the middle of summer.  This will bring below normal temps to the region
for a few days with guidance trying to push highs down into the 80s
by the weekend.  Kept forecast on the warm side of guidance.

Rain chances will increase Wednesday and Thursday with the second front.
Will leave the widespread low pops in the extended... expect pops to
increase for some of these days as they get closer.  Current long
range GFS looks very wet for Saturday but still a long ways out.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27







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