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000
FXUS64 KMAF 221335
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
835 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...As of 8:30 AM CDT Tuesday...have updated the
grids/forecast for the morning to remove most of the POPS. KMAF
radar as well as regional radars are indc a rapid decrease of
convection this morning. Will take a look at the aftn/evening
forecast after the models come in. One item of note is that the
12Z MAF sounding showed a significant decrease in mid level
moisture which could lead to less convective initiation this
afternoon.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Diminishing convection just
north of the CWA has sent an outflow boundary south into southeast
NM, briefly shifting winds to a northerly direction this morning
at HOB and CNM. Could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms once
again this afternoon and evening mainly across southeast New Mexico,
possibly affecting CNM and HOB. Confidence is too low at this time
to mention in the current forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast
winds remain in place through Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  75  99  75  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  77 101  78  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               103  75 102  73  /  30  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                 101  80 103  80  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76  99  74  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  70  92  70  /  20  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   96  72  98  72  /  20  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   91  65  91  66  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  76 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  77 100  76  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  78 101  75  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

99/33






000
FXUS64 KMAF 221335
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
835 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.UPDATE...As of 8:30 AM CDT Tuesday...have updated the
grids/forecast for the morning to remove most of the POPS. KMAF
radar as well as regional radars are indc a rapid decrease of
convection this morning. Will take a look at the aftn/evening
forecast after the models come in. One item of note is that the
12Z MAF sounding showed a significant decrease in mid level
moisture which could lead to less convective initiation this
afternoon.

Strobin

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Diminishing convection just
north of the CWA has sent an outflow boundary south into southeast
NM, briefly shifting winds to a northerly direction this morning
at HOB and CNM. Could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms once
again this afternoon and evening mainly across southeast New Mexico,
possibly affecting CNM and HOB. Confidence is too low at this time
to mention in the current forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast
winds remain in place through Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  75  99  75  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  77 101  78  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               103  75 102  73  /  30  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                 101  80 103  80  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76  99  74  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  70  92  70  /  20  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   96  72  98  72  /  20  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   91  65  91  66  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  76 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  77 100  76  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  78 101  75  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

99/33







000
FXUS64 KMAF 221106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Diminishing convection just
north of the CWA has sent an outflow boundary south into southeast
NM, briefly shifting winds to a northerly direction this morning
at HOB and CNM. Could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms once
again this afternoon and evening mainly across southeast New Mexico,
possibly affecting CNM and HOB. Confidence is too low at this time
to mention in the current forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast
winds remain in place through Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KMAF 221106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
606 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Diminishing convection just
north of the CWA has sent an outflow boundary south into southeast
NM, briefly shifting winds to a northerly direction this morning
at HOB and CNM. Could see isolated to scattered thunderstorms once
again this afternoon and evening mainly across southeast New Mexico,
possibly affecting CNM and HOB. Confidence is too low at this time
to mention in the current forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast
winds remain in place through Wednesday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KMAF 220908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  75  99  75  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  77 101  78  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               103  75 102  73  /  30  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                 101  80 103  80  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76  99  74  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  70  92  70  /  20  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   96  72  98  72  /  30  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   91  65  91  66  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  76 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  77 100  76  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  78 101  75  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

27/67






000
FXUS64 KMAF 220908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

An upper ridge will continue to dominate the weather across
southeast New Mexico and West Texas through this week, and next
weekend too.  Subtropical moisture swirling beneath the upper ridge
is allowing for convection over the higher terrain during max
heating, as has occurred the past few days.  We`ve also seen
convection last well into the night under the ua ridge, and this
morning is no different with thunderstorms dropping slowly southward
into portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  Expect to see a
gradual decrease in intensity/coverage with these storms through
22/12Z, as is typical this time of year with a warm, moist and
unstable airmass encompassing the forecast area.  Temperatures will
warm above normal again this afternoon with thunderstorms expected
to develop over the heated higher terrain, especially since an
h85-5 theta e axis will linger over southeast New Mexico, south
through the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains and into the Big Bend
region.  It appears coverage will not be as great as yesterday, but
there could still be a few strong storms capable of locally heavy
rainfall, winds over 50 mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning
strikes.  Convection will persist into the night, with a repeat
performance over southeast New Mexico possible, perhaps a little
further west.

Slightly drier low level air will mix down over the region Wednesday
as the mentioned subtropical mid and upper level moisture moves
westward.  This should extinguish rain chances, even over the higher
terrain, Wednesday through at least Friday, although there are some
indications subtropical moisture may increase again by Friday or
Saturday.  Of more pressing concern will be the heat as the upper
ridge doesn`t really budge from it`s current location over the
southern U.S. Plains.  The Heat Advisory currently in effect for
the Rio Grande River from Candelaria, downstream to the Lower Trans
Pecos will remain in effect until Wednesday morning.  However, the
possibility exists for the advisory to be extended along the Rio
Grande, if not expanded over the Upper Trans Pecos Wednesday through
Friday.  High temperatures above 105 degrees look to be inevitable
in these areas, but since low temperatures may not stay above 75
degrees will defer extension of the Heat Advisory at this time.

The upper ridge will stay centered over the southern U.S. Plains
into next weekend, but will become more east/west oriented as a
series of shortwave troughs traversing the northern Conus suppress
it somewhat southward.  Thereafter, an upper trough is expected to
deepen over the eastern Conus through early next week.  The upper
ridge will retrograde and amplify over the western Conus, although
it will still maintain a good deal of influence over the region.
At this time it appears we may see temperatures closer to normal by
early next week.  If we`re really lucky, we could see a cold front
and an appreciable increase in rain chances early to mid next week.
Will not go out on a limb right now, especially considering how
treacherously wrong progs can be 5 to 7 days in advance during the
summer months.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 99  75  99  75  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX             100  77 101  78  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               103  75 102  73  /  30  30  10   0
DRYDEN TX                 101  80 103  80  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           98  76  99  74  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          92  70  92  70  /  20  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   96  72  98  72  /  30  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   91  65  91  66  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  76 100  75  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  99  77 100  76  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                   103  78 101  75  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

27/67





000
FXUS64 KMAF 220510
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Could see isolated to
scattered thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon and evening
mainly across southeast New Mexico, possibly affecting CNM and HOB.
Confidence is too low at this time to mention in the current
forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast winds remain in place
through Tuesday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
.but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KMAF 220510
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
No major aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions
expected to prevail at all TAF sites. Could see isolated to
scattered thunderstorms once again Tuesday afternoon and evening
mainly across southeast New Mexico, possibly affecting CNM and HOB.
Confidence is too low at this time to mention in the current
forecast. Otherwise, generally southeast winds remain in place
through Tuesday.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
.but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KMAF 212203
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
503 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, under the influence of
an upper ridge centered north of the area. W/the exception of
KCNM/KHOB, current convection should stay west of other terminals
invof a sfc trough. This activity should begin diminishing shortly
as peak heating passes. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu
field most terminals by late morning Tuesday, w/bases 5-6 kft agl.
However, convection Tuesday afternoon should stay W and N.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
..but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

44







000
FXUS64 KMAF 212203
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
503 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours, under the influence of
an upper ridge centered north of the area. W/the exception of
KCNM/KHOB, current convection should stay west of other terminals
invof a sfc trough. This activity should begin diminishing shortly
as peak heating passes. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu
field most terminals by late morning Tuesday, w/bases 5-6 kft agl.
However, convection Tuesday afternoon should stay W and N.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
..but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

44






000
FXUS64 KMAF 211954
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
...but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  99  74  98  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              78  99  78  99  /   0  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                77 102  73 100  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  80 103  81 102  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           77 100  76  99  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  95  71  92  /  30  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   72  97  71  96  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   66  92  65  90  /  30  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    76  99  74  99  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  78  98  78  98  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    79 103  77 101  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

05/33






000
FXUS64 KMAF 211954
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
254 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...As of 2:45 PM CDT Monday...KMAF radar is showing
convection popping in the usual spots such as the Davis Mtns...Big
Bend...and the Guadalupe Mtns. Temps have already warmed into the
90s with even a few 100+ readings.

A large upper ridge is located over Northern New Mexico. A lee
trough will remain over extreme West Texas/Eastern New Mexico.
This will serve as the focus for convection this aftn/evening as
well as Tuesday aftn/evening with the deep layer easterly flow
providing upslope conditions. The convection will be mainly
across the usual mountain locales...possibly moving into the New
Mexico Plains. Temps will be above normal...and with the abundant
low level moisture morning lows will stay near 80 along the Rio
Grande. Therefore...have kept the Heat Advisory going thru Wed
morning along the Rio Grande River Valley.

The ridge will strengthen by mid week with very hot temperatures
and dry conditions as mid level moisture becomes limited. There
will be widespread 100+ temps across the CWA...with 105+ along the
Rio Grande and the Trans Pecos regions. There could be enough low
level moisture with the easterly flow to keep overnight lows above
75 along the Rio Grande and Trans Pecos. The heat advisory might
need to be extended through the end of the week and even into the
weekend along the Rio Grande and possibly include the Trans Pecos.

The 12Z GFS is hinting at some relief from the very hot temperatures
...but not til early next week. Be careful with any outdoor
activities for the next seven days and drink plenty of water.

Strobin

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 75  99  74  98  /  10  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              78  99  78  99  /   0  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                77 102  73 100  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  80 103  81 102  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           77 100  76  99  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          71  95  71  92  /  30  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   72  97  71  96  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   66  92  65  90  /  30  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    76  99  74  99  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  78  98  78  98  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    79 103  77 101  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

05/33







000
FXUS64 KMAF 211700
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at southeast New Mexico and southwest
Texas terminals through mid-day Tuesday. There is a slight chance
of thunderstorms mainly near the mountains of southeast New Mexico
and southwest Texas and nearby areas including PEQ and CNM. The
probability of occurrence of thunderstorms at these sites is too
low for inclusion in upcoming terminal forecasts. Winds in and
near these thunderstorms will be variable and gusty. Otherwise, no
significant weather is expected through mid-day Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West
Texas TAF sites during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which
develop this afternoon could affect kPEQ, KCNM, KINK and KHOB this
afternoon or evening.  However, probabilities are too low to include
in the current TAF issuance.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

Above normal temperatures are expected the next seven days
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the
southern Rockies eastward to the southern Plains. At the
surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico many days through the next
week. More very intense heating along the surface trough with
upslope flow in the mountains combined with trapped mid level
moisture underneath the upper ridge should generate mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
portions of the upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall both
today and Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures once
again will be around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande river from
southern Terrell county westward to the Big Bend and Presidio
valley. Will issue a heat advisory through 12Z Wednesday morning
due to high temperatures expected to be at or above 105 degrees
along the Rio Grande with low temperatures expected to be 75 to
80.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to strengthen
and mid level moisture will become limited. Precipitation chances
do not appear high enough at this time to mention in the weather
grids Wednesday through next Monday. Temperatures will continue
to be much above normal. The heat advisory may need to be expanded
both in time and location.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KMAF 211700
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected at southeast New Mexico and southwest
Texas terminals through mid-day Tuesday. There is a slight chance
of thunderstorms mainly near the mountains of southeast New Mexico
and southwest Texas and nearby areas including PEQ and CNM. The
probability of occurrence of thunderstorms at these sites is too
low for inclusion in upcoming terminal forecasts. Winds in and
near these thunderstorms will be variable and gusty. Otherwise, no
significant weather is expected through mid-day Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West
Texas TAF sites during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which
develop this afternoon could affect kPEQ, KCNM, KINK and KHOB this
afternoon or evening.  However, probabilities are too low to include
in the current TAF issuance.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

Above normal temperatures are expected the next seven days
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the
southern Rockies eastward to the southern Plains. At the
surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico many days through the next
week. More very intense heating along the surface trough with
upslope flow in the mountains combined with trapped mid level
moisture underneath the upper ridge should generate mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
portions of the upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall both
today and Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures once
again will be around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande river from
southern Terrell county westward to the Big Bend and Presidio
valley. Will issue a heat advisory through 12Z Wednesday morning
due to high temperatures expected to be at or above 105 degrees
along the Rio Grande with low temperatures expected to be 75 to
80.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to strengthen
and mid level moisture will become limited. Precipitation chances
do not appear high enough at this time to mention in the weather
grids Wednesday through next Monday. Temperatures will continue
to be much above normal. The heat advisory may need to be expanded
both in time and location.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

05








000
FXUS64 KMAF 211052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West
Texas TAF sites during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which
develop this afternoon could affect kPEQ, KCNM, KINK and KHOB this
afternoon or evening.  However, probabilities are too low to include
in the current TAF issuance.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

Above normal temperatures are expected the next seven days
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the
southern Rockies eastward to the southern Plains. At the
surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico many days through the next
week. More very intense heating along the surface trough with
upslope flow in the mountains combined with trapped mid level
moisture underneath the upper ridge should generate mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
portions of the upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall both
today and Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures once
again will be around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande river from
southern Terrell county westward to the Big Bend and Presidio
valley. Will issue a heat advisory through 12Z Wednesday morning
due to high temperatures expected to be at or above 105 degrees
along the Rio Grande with low temperatures expected to be 75 to
80.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to strengthen
and mid level moisture will become limited. Precipitation chances
do not appear high enough at this time to mention in the weather
grids Wednesday through next Monday. Temperatures will continue
to be much above normal. The heat advisory may need to be expanded
both in time and location.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  99  72  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  73 102  68  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                 104  76 103  76  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  75 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          96  70  95  67  /  30  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   98  69  97  67  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   93  62  92  61  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  76  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   104  77 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

67/12





000
FXUS64 KMAF 211052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West
Texas TAF sites during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which
develop this afternoon could affect kPEQ, KCNM, KINK and KHOB this
afternoon or evening.  However, probabilities are too low to include
in the current TAF issuance.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014/

Above normal temperatures are expected the next seven days
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the
southern Rockies eastward to the southern Plains. At the
surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico many days through the next
week. More very intense heating along the surface trough with
upslope flow in the mountains combined with trapped mid level
moisture underneath the upper ridge should generate mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
portions of the upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall both
today and Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures once
again will be around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande river from
southern Terrell county westward to the Big Bend and Presidio
valley. Will issue a heat advisory through 12Z Wednesday morning
due to high temperatures expected to be at or above 105 degrees
along the Rio Grande with low temperatures expected to be 75 to
80.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to strengthen
and mid level moisture will become limited. Precipitation chances
do not appear high enough at this time to mention in the weather
grids Wednesday through next Monday. Temperatures will continue
to be much above normal. The heat advisory may need to be expanded
both in time and location.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  99  72  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  73 102  68  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                 104  76 103  76  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  75 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          96  70  95  67  /  30  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   98  69  97  67  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   93  62  92  61  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  76  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   104  77 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

67/12






000
FXUS64 KMAF 210912
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
412 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next seven days
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the
southern Rockies eastward to the southern Plains. At the
surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico many days through the next
week. More very intense heating along the surface trough with
upslope flow in the mountains combined with trapped mid level
moisture underneath the upper ridge should generate mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
portions of the upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall both
today and Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures once
again will be around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande river from
southern Terrell county westward to the Big Bend and Presidio
valley. Will issue a heat advisory through 12Z Wednesday morning
due to high temperatures expected to be at or above 105 degrees
along the Rio Grande with low temperatures expected to be 75 to
80.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to strengthen
and mid level moisture will become limited. Precipitation chances
do not appear high enough at this time to mention in the weather
grids Wednesday through next Monday. Temperatures will continue
to be much above normal. The heat advisory may need to be expanded
both in time and location.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  99  72  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  73 102  68  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                 104  76 103  76  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  75 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          96  70  95  67  /  30  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   98  69  97  67  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   93  62  92  61  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  76  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   104  77 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

67/12







000
FXUS64 KMAF 210912
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
412 AM CDT Mon Jul 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next seven days
as an upper level ridge of high pressure builds across the
southern Rockies eastward to the southern Plains. At the
surface a lee trough is forecast to remain in place across
extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico many days through the next
week. More very intense heating along the surface trough with
upslope flow in the mountains combined with trapped mid level
moisture underneath the upper ridge should generate mainly
afternoon and evening isolated to scattered thunderstorms across
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains,
portions of the upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall both
today and Tuesday afternoon and evening. High temperatures once
again will be around 105 degrees along the Rio Grande river from
southern Terrell county westward to the Big Bend and Presidio
valley. Will issue a heat advisory through 12Z Wednesday morning
due to high temperatures expected to be at or above 105 degrees
along the Rio Grande with low temperatures expected to be 75 to
80.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to strengthen
and mid level moisture will become limited. Precipitation chances
do not appear high enough at this time to mention in the weather
grids Wednesday through next Monday. Temperatures will continue
to be much above normal. The heat advisory may need to be expanded
both in time and location.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX             100  74  99  72  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM               103  73 102  68  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                 104  76 103  76  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX          101  75 100  73  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          96  70  95  67  /  30  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                   98  69  97  67  /  10  10  20  20
MARFA TX                   93  62  92  61  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX   101  74  99  71  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  76  98  74  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                   104  77 103  74  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...HEAT ADVISORY until 7 AM CDT Wednesday FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Big Bend Area...Presidio Valley...Terrell.


&&

$$

67/12






000
FXUS64 KMAF 210454
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1154 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West
Texas TAF sites during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which
develop this afternoon should stay west of all TAF sites.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

Summertime wx pattern will continue with the upper ridge the
controlling feature. The upper ridge was centered right over the
area this morning and will slowly shift off to the west by midweek
as it strengthens. 850mb temps are expected to climb through the
week pushing temperatures across the region back above 100 degree.

July has been cooler than June with no 100 degrees days recorded so
far this month at MAF.  However that is expected to change with
readings at or above the Century mark returning by Wednesday and
increasing through the end of the week.  Highs along the Rio Grande
valley should exceed 105 most of the week.  Overnight temps will
also be slow to fall off and be generally in the 70s.

Expect to see storms over the mountains again today and Monday...
radar indicates first echos already beginning to pop.  Low level
moisture remains high... had dewpts as high as 70 at MAF this
morning.  12Z MAF sounding had a PW over 1.5 inches which is very
wet for this far west.  Good moisture should continue as a S to
SE surface wind continues through the week with a leeside trough.
Storms that develop should be slow moving and will have potential
for locally heavy rain.  Rain chances begin decreasing on Tuesday
with not much precip expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMAF 210454
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1154 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all southeast New Mexico and West
Texas TAF sites during the next 24 hours.  Thunderstorms which
develop this afternoon should stay west of all TAF sites.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

Summertime wx pattern will continue with the upper ridge the
controlling feature. The upper ridge was centered right over the
area this morning and will slowly shift off to the west by midweek
as it strengthens. 850mb temps are expected to climb through the
week pushing temperatures across the region back above 100 degree.

July has been cooler than June with no 100 degrees days recorded so
far this month at MAF.  However that is expected to change with
readings at or above the Century mark returning by Wednesday and
increasing through the end of the week.  Highs along the Rio Grande
valley should exceed 105 most of the week.  Overnight temps will
also be slow to fall off and be generally in the 70s.

Expect to see storms over the mountains again today and Monday...
radar indicates first echos already beginning to pop.  Low level
moisture remains high... had dewpts as high as 70 at MAF this
morning.  12Z MAF sounding had a PW over 1.5 inches which is very
wet for this far west.  Good moisture should continue as a S to
SE surface wind continues through the week with a leeside trough.
Storms that develop should be slow moving and will have potential
for locally heavy rain.  Rain chances begin decreasing on Tuesday
with not much precip expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMAF 202156
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under upper lvl ridging.
Abundant moisture and low convective temps will result in a
widespread cu field developing by late morning Monday, w/bases 6-9
kft agl.  Otherwise, return flow continues.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Summertime wx pattern will continue with the upper ridge the
controlling feature.  The upper ridge was centered right over the
area this morning and will slowly shift off to the west by midweek
as it strengthens.  850mb temps are expected to climb through the
week pushing temperatures across the region back above 100 degree.

July has been cooler than June with no 100 degrees days recorded so
far this month at MAF.  However that is expected to change with
readings at or above the Century mark returning by Wednesday and
increasing through the end of the week.  Highs along the Rio Grande
valley should exceed 105 most of the week.  Overnight temps will
also be slow to fall off and be generally in the 70s.

Expect to see storms over the mountains again today and Monday...
radar indicates first echos already beginning to pop.  Low level
moisture remains high... had dewpts as high as 70 at MAF this
morning.  12Z MAF sounding had a PW over 1.5 inches which is very
wet for this far west.  Good moisture should continue as a S to
SE surface wind continues through the week with a leeside trough.
Storms that develop should be slow moving and will have potential
for locally heavy rain.  Rain chances begin decreasing on Tuesday
with not much precip expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44







000
FXUS64 KMAF 202156
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
456 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under upper lvl ridging.
Abundant moisture and low convective temps will result in a
widespread cu field developing by late morning Monday, w/bases 6-9
kft agl.  Otherwise, return flow continues.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Summertime wx pattern will continue with the upper ridge the
controlling feature.  The upper ridge was centered right over the
area this morning and will slowly shift off to the west by midweek
as it strengthens.  850mb temps are expected to climb through the
week pushing temperatures across the region back above 100 degree.

July has been cooler than June with no 100 degrees days recorded so
far this month at MAF.  However that is expected to change with
readings at or above the Century mark returning by Wednesday and
increasing through the end of the week.  Highs along the Rio Grande
valley should exceed 105 most of the week.  Overnight temps will
also be slow to fall off and be generally in the 70s.

Expect to see storms over the mountains again today and Monday...
radar indicates first echos already beginning to pop.  Low level
moisture remains high... had dewpts as high as 70 at MAF this
morning.  12Z MAF sounding had a PW over 1.5 inches which is very
wet for this far west.  Good moisture should continue as a S to
SE surface wind continues through the week with a leeside trough.
Storms that develop should be slow moving and will have potential
for locally heavy rain.  Rain chances begin decreasing on Tuesday
with not much precip expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS64 KMAF 201834
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
134 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Summertime wx pattern will continue with the upper ridge the
controlling feature.  The upper ridge was centered right over the
area this morning and will slowly shift off to the west by midweek
as it strengthens.  850mb temps are expected to climb through the
week pushing temperatures across the region back above 100 degree.

July has been cooler than June with no 100 degrees days recorded so
far this month at MAF.  However that is expected to change with
readings at or above the Century mark returning by Wednesday and
increasing through the end of the week.  Highs along the Rio Grande
valley should exceed 105 most of the week.  Overnight temps will
also be slow to fall off and be generally in the 70s.

Expect to see storms over the mountains again today and Monday...
radar indicates first echos already beginning to pop.  Low level
moisture remains high... had dewpts as high as 70 at MAF this
morning.  12Z MAF sounding had a PW over 1.5 inches which is very
wet for this far west.  Good moisture should continue as a S to
SE surface wind continues through the week with a leeside trough.
Storms that develop should be slow moving and will have potential
for locally heavy rain.  Rain chances begin decreasing on Tuesday
with not much precip expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  99  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              74  99  74  98  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                73 101  73 100  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  76 100  76  99  /  10   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75 101  74  99  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  94  70  95  /  30  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   71  98  71  98  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   65  93  62  93  /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74  99  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  75  99  76  99  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    75 102  76 101  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/72






000
FXUS64 KMAF 201834
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
134 PM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Summertime wx pattern will continue with the upper ridge the
controlling feature.  The upper ridge was centered right over the
area this morning and will slowly shift off to the west by midweek
as it strengthens.  850mb temps are expected to climb through the
week pushing temperatures across the region back above 100 degree.

July has been cooler than June with no 100 degrees days recorded so
far this month at MAF.  However that is expected to change with
readings at or above the Century mark returning by Wednesday and
increasing through the end of the week.  Highs along the Rio Grande
valley should exceed 105 most of the week.  Overnight temps will
also be slow to fall off and be generally in the 70s.

Expect to see storms over the mountains again today and Monday...
radar indicates first echos already beginning to pop.  Low level
moisture remains high... had dewpts as high as 70 at MAF this
morning.  12Z MAF sounding had a PW over 1.5 inches which is very
wet for this far west.  Good moisture should continue as a S to
SE surface wind continues through the week with a leeside trough.
Storms that develop should be slow moving and will have potential
for locally heavy rain.  Rain chances begin decreasing on Tuesday
with not much precip expected through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  99  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              74  99  74  98  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                73 101  73 100  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  76 100  76  99  /  10   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           75 101  74  99  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          70  94  70  95  /  30  20  20  20
HOBBS NM                   71  98  71  98  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   65  93  62  93  /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74  99  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  75  99  76  99  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    75 102  76 101  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/72







000
FXUS64 KMAF 201642
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are forecast through mid-day Monday. Though a few
low clouds could approach the Permian Basin early Monday morning,
it currently appears that low ceilings are not likely to be
observed across southeast New Mexico or southwest Texas, even at
MAF, through Monday morning. With abundant moisture across this
area, scattered convective clouds can be expected mainly this
afternoon along with a few high clouds. A few isolated
thunderstorms are possible mainly late afternoon through mid
evening, though the chance of occurrence is too low for mention in
area terminal forecasts. Thunderstorms will be more common in the
mountainous terrain. Any thunderstorms that develop could produce
strong and variable wind gusts. Otherwise, winds will generally be
south to southeast at less than 12 knots across the area through
Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Other than including temporary MVFR ceilings at KMAF, expect VFR
conditions to prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon, but expect the
bulk of the storms to stay west of the TAF sites, so will not
include at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next 7 days as an
upper level ridge builds across New Mexico and west Texas through
Tuesday and then shifts northwestward toward the 4 corners region
next Wednesday through Friday. At the surface a lee trough is
forecast to remain in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New
Mexico through early next week. Very intense heating along the
surface trough with upslope flow in the mountains combined with
weak trapped mid level moisture underneath the upper high should
generate mainly afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast
New Mexico Plains, upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall today
and this evening when moisture will be greatest.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to shift toward
the four corners region. Precipitation chances will decrease as
the upper ridge takes the mid level moisture northwestward away
from the forecast area. Went with the warmer ECMWF temperatures
through the extended based on 850 millibar temperature forecast
consistency.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05








000
FXUS64 KMAF 201642
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1142 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are forecast through mid-day Monday. Though a few
low clouds could approach the Permian Basin early Monday morning,
it currently appears that low ceilings are not likely to be
observed across southeast New Mexico or southwest Texas, even at
MAF, through Monday morning. With abundant moisture across this
area, scattered convective clouds can be expected mainly this
afternoon along with a few high clouds. A few isolated
thunderstorms are possible mainly late afternoon through mid
evening, though the chance of occurrence is too low for mention in
area terminal forecasts. Thunderstorms will be more common in the
mountainous terrain. Any thunderstorms that develop could produce
strong and variable wind gusts. Otherwise, winds will generally be
south to southeast at less than 12 knots across the area through
Monday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Other than including temporary MVFR ceilings at KMAF, expect VFR
conditions to prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon, but expect the
bulk of the storms to stay west of the TAF sites, so will not
include at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next 7 days as an
upper level ridge builds across New Mexico and west Texas through
Tuesday and then shifts northwestward toward the 4 corners region
next Wednesday through Friday. At the surface a lee trough is
forecast to remain in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New
Mexico through early next week. Very intense heating along the
surface trough with upslope flow in the mountains combined with
weak trapped mid level moisture underneath the upper high should
generate mainly afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast
New Mexico Plains, upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall today
and this evening when moisture will be greatest.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to shift toward
the four corners region. Precipitation chances will decrease as
the upper ridge takes the mid level moisture northwestward away
from the forecast area. Went with the warmer ECMWF temperatures
through the extended based on 850 millibar temperature forecast
consistency.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05







000
FXUS64 KMAF 201128
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
628 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Other than including temporary MVFR ceilings at KMAF, expect VFR
conditions to prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Thunderstorms will develop again this afternoon, but expect the
bulk of the storms to stay west of the TAF sites, so will not
include at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next 7 days as an
upper level ridge builds across New Mexico and west Texas through
Tuesday and then shifts northwestward toward the 4 corners region
next Wednesday through Friday. At the surface a lee trough is
forecast to remain in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New
Mexico through early next week. Very intense heating along the
surface trough with upslope flow in the mountains combined with
weak trapped mid level moisture underneath the upper high should
generate mainly afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast
New Mexico Plains, upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall today
and this evening when moisture will be greatest.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to shift toward
the four corners region. Precipitation chances will decrease as
the upper ridge takes the mid level moisture northwestward away
from the forecast area. Went with the warmer ECMWF temperatures
through the extended based on 850 millibar temperature forecast
consistency.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              98  72  98  74  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               102  68 101  69  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 102  74 102  75  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  73 100  73  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          97  67  95  69  /  30  30  20  20
HOBBS NM                   97  67  99  69  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   94  63  93  62  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  74  99  75  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                   102  75 102  75  /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12





000
FXUS64 KMAF 200929
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
429 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next 7 days as an
upper level ridge builds across New Mexico and west Texas through
Tuesday and then shifts northwestward toward the 4 corners region
next Wednesday through Friday. At the surface a lee trough is
forecast to remain in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New
Mexico through early next week. Very intense heating along the
surface trough with upslope flow in the mountains combined with
weak trapped mid level moisture underneath the upper high should
generate mainly afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast
New Mexico Plains, upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall today
and this evening when moisture will be greatest.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to shift toward
the four corners region. Precipitation chances will decrease as
the upper ridge takes the mid level moisture northwestward away
from the forecast area. Went with the warmer ECMWF temperatures
through the extended based on 850 millibar temperature forecast
consistency.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              98  72  98  74  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               102  68 101  69  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 102  74 102  75  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  73 100  73  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          97  67  95  69  /  30  30  20  20
HOBBS NM                   97  67  99  69  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   94  63  93  62  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  74  99  75  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                   102  75 102  75  /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12







000
FXUS64 KMAF 200929
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
429 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Above normal temperatures are expected the next 7 days as an
upper level ridge builds across New Mexico and west Texas through
Tuesday and then shifts northwestward toward the 4 corners region
next Wednesday through Friday. At the surface a lee trough is
forecast to remain in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New
Mexico through early next week. Very intense heating along the
surface trough with upslope flow in the mountains combined with
weak trapped mid level moisture underneath the upper high should
generate mainly afternoon and evening isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms across the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, southeast
New Mexico Plains, upper Trans Pecos through Tuesday. Weak steering
flow and instability could produce locally heavy rainfall today
and this evening when moisture will be greatest.

Beyond Tuesday the upper high center is forecast to shift toward
the four corners region. Precipitation chances will decrease as
the upper ridge takes the mid level moisture northwestward away
from the forecast area. Went with the warmer ECMWF temperatures
through the extended based on 850 millibar temperature forecast
consistency.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                100  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              98  72  98  74  /  10  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM               102  68 101  69  /  20  20  20  20
DRYDEN TX                 102  74 102  75  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX          100  73 100  73  /  20  20  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          97  67  95  69  /  30  30  20  20
HOBBS NM                   97  67  99  69  /  20  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   94  63  93  62  /  30  30  20  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    99  73  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  99  74  99  75  /  20  20  10  10
WINK TX                   102  75 102  75  /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12






000
FXUS64 KMAF 200523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms could affect KCNM and KHOB through 20/09Z so have
included variable and gusty winds, in addition to TSRA and MVFR
visibility.  Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail areawide
through the day.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over West Texas,
courtesy of a west coast trough trying to muscle in thru Baja.
Yesterday, a MCS developed in N central NM and moved SSE, but died
out before making it into SE NM. Current models attempt to
replicate this scenario tonight, but suggest the MCS might make it
a little further SE. Otherwise, at the sfc, a trough extended from
SW NM ESE down into the Big Bend, and will serve as the focus of
isolated convection for the next couple of days as abundant
diurnal heating combines w/minor disturbances moving down thru the
ridge. Sfc trough is forecast to orient more N-S Sunday and
Monday, and remain over the western half of the CWA. Forecast
soundings look too warm for much hail development, but inverted-V
profiles suggest strong winds will remain a threat. In addition,
KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a PWAT of 1.31"...about 130% of normal.
Given nil steering flow under the ridge, heavy rain will be
possible as well.

Models dissolve the sfc trough by Tuesday and begin moving the upper
ridge NNW over the next week to the Four Corners vicinity.  While
this will spare West Texas/SE NM the worst of the heat, the thermal
ridge will still push H85 temps towards 30C, for widespread
triple-digits by Tuesday or so, and continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 200523
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1223 AM CDT Sun Jul 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms could affect KCNM and KHOB through 20/09Z so have
included variable and gusty winds, in addition to TSRA and MVFR
visibility.  Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail areawide
through the day.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over West Texas,
courtesy of a west coast trough trying to muscle in thru Baja.
Yesterday, a MCS developed in N central NM and moved SSE, but died
out before making it into SE NM. Current models attempt to
replicate this scenario tonight, but suggest the MCS might make it
a little further SE. Otherwise, at the sfc, a trough extended from
SW NM ESE down into the Big Bend, and will serve as the focus of
isolated convection for the next couple of days as abundant
diurnal heating combines w/minor disturbances moving down thru the
ridge. Sfc trough is forecast to orient more N-S Sunday and
Monday, and remain over the western half of the CWA. Forecast
soundings look too warm for much hail development, but inverted-V
profiles suggest strong winds will remain a threat. In addition,
KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a PWAT of 1.31"...about 130% of normal.
Given nil steering flow under the ridge, heavy rain will be
possible as well.

Models dissolve the sfc trough by Tuesday and begin moving the upper
ridge NNW over the next week to the Four Corners vicinity.  While
this will spare West Texas/SE NM the worst of the heat, the thermal
ridge will still push H85 temps towards 30C, for widespread
triple-digits by Tuesday or so, and continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMAF 192334
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions should remain VFR for all TAF locations through the period.
Have a few lingering storms from CNM to E38 but expect these to die
out in the next hour or two.  Not expecting as much low clouds in
the Permian Basin Sunday morning as past few days... only mentioned
SCT stratus at MAF around sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over West Texas, courtesy
of a west coast trough trying to muscle in thru Baja.  Yesterday, a
MCS developed in N central NM and moved SSE, but died out before
making it into SE NM.  Current models attempt to replicate this
scenario tonight, but suggest the MCS might make it a little further
SE.  Otherwise, at the sfc, a trough extended from SW NM ESE down
into the Big Bend, and will serve as the focus of isolated
convection for the next couple of days as abundant diurnal heating
combines w/minor disturbances moving down thru the ridge.  Sfc
trough is forecast to orient more N-S Sunday and Monday, and remain
over the western half of the CWA.  Forecast soundings look too warm
for much hail development, but inverted-V profiles suggest strong
winds will remain a threat.  In addition, KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a
PWAT of 1.31"...about 130% of normal.  Given nil steering flow under
the ridge, heavy rain will be possible as well.

Models dissolve the sfc trough by Tuesday and begin moving the upper
ridge NNW over the next week to the Four Corners vicinity.  While
this will spare West Texas/SE NM the worst of the heat, the thermal
ridge will still push H85 temps towards 30C, for widespread
triple-digits by Tuesday or so, and continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMAF 192334
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Conditions should remain VFR for all TAF locations through the period.
Have a few lingering storms from CNM to E38 but expect these to die
out in the next hour or two.  Not expecting as much low clouds in
the Permian Basin Sunday morning as past few days... only mentioned
SCT stratus at MAF around sunrise.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over West Texas, courtesy
of a west coast trough trying to muscle in thru Baja.  Yesterday, a
MCS developed in N central NM and moved SSE, but died out before
making it into SE NM.  Current models attempt to replicate this
scenario tonight, but suggest the MCS might make it a little further
SE.  Otherwise, at the sfc, a trough extended from SW NM ESE down
into the Big Bend, and will serve as the focus of isolated
convection for the next couple of days as abundant diurnal heating
combines w/minor disturbances moving down thru the ridge.  Sfc
trough is forecast to orient more N-S Sunday and Monday, and remain
over the western half of the CWA.  Forecast soundings look too warm
for much hail development, but inverted-V profiles suggest strong
winds will remain a threat.  In addition, KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a
PWAT of 1.31"...about 130% of normal.  Given nil steering flow under
the ridge, heavy rain will be possible as well.

Models dissolve the sfc trough by Tuesday and begin moving the upper
ridge NNW over the next week to the Four Corners vicinity.  While
this will spare West Texas/SE NM the worst of the heat, the thermal
ridge will still push H85 temps towards 30C, for widespread
triple-digits by Tuesday or so, and continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMAF 191921
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
221 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the upper ridge centered over West Texas, courtesy
of a west coast trough trying to muscle in thru Baja.  Yesterday, a
MCS developed in N central NM and moved SSE, but died out before
making it into SE NM.  Current models attempt to replicate this
scenario tonight, but suggest the MCS might make it a little further
SE.  Otherwise, at the sfc, a trough extended from SW NM ESE down
into the Big Bend, and will serve as the focus of isolated
convection for the next couple of days as abundant diurnal heating
combines w/minor disturbances moving down thru the ridge.  Sfc
trough is forecast to orient more N-S Sunday and Monday, and remain
over the western half of the CWA.  Forecast soundings look too warm
for much hail development, but inverted-V profiles suggest strong
winds will remain a threat.  In addition, KMAF 12Z raob came in w/a
PWAT of 1.31"...about 130% of normal.  Given nil steering flow under
the ridge, heavy rain will be possible as well.

Models dissolve the sfc trough by Tuesday and begin moving the upper
ridge NNW over the next week to the Four Corners vicinity.  While
this will spare West Texas/SE NM the worst of the heat, the thermal
ridge will still push H85 temps towards 30C, for widespread
triple-digits by Tuesday or so, and continuing into the
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  97  72  97  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  99  71  98  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                73  98  71  98  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  75  98  73  96  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  99  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  88  73  89  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   70  92  68  96  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   62  89  64  89  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  98  72  98  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  74  97  73  98  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    75  98  73 101  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05/44






000
FXUS64 KMAF 191709
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1209 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
By 18 today, low ceilings ha burned off across southeast New
Mexico an southwest Texas leaving only a few low clouds in the
Permian Basin and few high clouds over southwest Texas. During the
afternoon, scattered low clouds will develop and a few thunderstorms
are possible over the mountains of southwest Texas and over
southeast New Mexico. The chance of thunderstorms is too low to
include in terminal forecasts across this area. Skies will remain
generally scattered overnight with a few low clouds developing
near the Permian Basin. Due to the influence of high pressure
building aloft, ceilings are not expected. VFR conditions will
continue through 18Z Sunday. Winds will generally be south to
southeast at 12 knots or less, though occasional gusts below 20
knows are possible.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are developing/spreading across west Texas into
southeast New Mexico, so will carry at all TAF sites through at
least 19/15Z.  Expect VFR conditions thereafter, however
thunderstorms will be possible at kCNM, KPEQ, KINK and KHOB.
Since probabilities are so low, will not include at any of these
sites at this time.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

Above normal temperatures will return to the forecast area for
the next 7 days as an upper level ridge builds across New Mexico
and west Texas. At the surface a lee trough is forecast to remain
in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico through
early next week. Very intense heating along the surface trough in
the mountains combined with weak disturbances moving south within
the upper ridge should generate mainly afternoon and evening
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, upper Trans
Pecos and portions of the western Permian Basin most days through
Tuesday.

Beyond next Tuesday went with a dry forecast for now for the
remainder of the extended forecast through next Saturday. Will be
monitoring next Wednesday for a possible frontal passage and
increase chance of precipitation depicted on the ECMWF and CMC, but
confidence was not high for this scenario at this time. For next
Thursday through Saturday the upper ridge is forecast to drift
north across New Mexico with easterly flow aloft in place across
the region. Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential
of isolated storms in the mountains. Temperatures will continue
above normal next Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05






000
FXUS64 KMAF 191709
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1209 PM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
By 18 today, low ceilings ha burned off across southeast New
Mexico an southwest Texas leaving only a few low clouds in the
Permian Basin and few high clouds over southwest Texas. During the
afternoon, scattered low clouds will develop and a few thunderstorms
are possible over the mountains of southwest Texas and over
southeast New Mexico. The chance of thunderstorms is too low to
include in terminal forecasts across this area. Skies will remain
generally scattered overnight with a few low clouds developing
near the Permian Basin. Due to the influence of high pressure
building aloft, ceilings are not expected. VFR conditions will
continue through 18Z Sunday. Winds will generally be south to
southeast at 12 knots or less, though occasional gusts below 20
knows are possible.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 601 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

MVFR ceilings are developing/spreading across west Texas into
southeast New Mexico, so will carry at all TAF sites through at
least 19/15Z.  Expect VFR conditions thereafter, however
thunderstorms will be possible at kCNM, KPEQ, KINK and KHOB.
Since probabilities are so low, will not include at any of these
sites at this time.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT Sat Jul 19 2014/

Above normal temperatures will return to the forecast area for
the next 7 days as an upper level ridge builds across New Mexico
and west Texas. At the surface a lee trough is forecast to remain
in place across extreme west Texas/eastern New Mexico through
early next week. Very intense heating along the surface trough in
the mountains combined with weak disturbances moving south within
the upper ridge should generate mainly afternoon and evening
isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms across the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, southeast New Mexico Plains, upper Trans
Pecos and portions of the western Permian Basin most days through
Tuesday.

Beyond next Tuesday went with a dry forecast for now for the
remainder of the extended forecast through next Saturday. Will be
monitoring next Wednesday for a possible frontal passage and
increase chance of precipitation depicted on the ECMWF and CMC, but
confidence was not high for this scenario at this time. For next
Thursday through Saturday the upper ridge is forecast to drift
north across New Mexico with easterly flow aloft in place across
the region. Later shifts will need to monitor for the potential
of isolated storms in the mountains. Temperatures will continue
above normal next Wednesday through Friday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

05







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