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000
FXUS64 KMAF 192336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings should become mostly MVFR around 06z and continue
through at least mid Saturday morning at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals. Scattered thunderstorms can be
expected the next 24 hours at most locations due to the remains of
tropical system and have added TEMPO groups for IFR conditions in
thunderstorms. The exceptions were KPEQ and KFST where confidence
was not as high, so included prob30 groups for MVFR conditions.
Looking for prevailing MVFR ceilings to become VFR during Saturday
afternoon.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Major flooding occurring over southeast New Mexico, and the Upper
Trans Pecos in West Texas today.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect,
and despite some downtrend in radar activity, the Watch will
continue though tonight.

Moderate rain showers continue to swirl around a Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) this afternoon, located over the central
Permian Basin.  A few lightning strikes were indicated over the
southern Permian Basin and over the Davis Mountains where some
heating has occurred.  However, hourly rainfall rates were topping
out around 0.25 inches at 19/20Z.  The remnant mid level circulation
of Odile was located over east central New Mexico this afternoon,
and is still discernible in water vapor and visible satellite
imagery.  Heating over the Davis/Glass Mountains will likely aid
scattered thunderstorm development in a moist uncapped environment
through max heating.  Just how much resultant convection will fill
in as it moves east/northeast remains to be seen.  Of more concern
will be whether another MCV develops/spins off, the remnant mid
level circulation form Odile tonight.  Since visible satellite is
indicating another such circulation near Alamogordo this afternoon,
think another round of showers and thunderstorms could develop.
Therefore, will keep likely PoPs going tonight along and north of
Interstate 10, and continue with the Flash Flood Watch until 20/12Z
since flash flood guidance values are very low due to heavy rainfall
over the last 36-48 hours.

The remnants of Odile are progged to move across the Texas Panhandle
tonight and Saturday, but then curl southwestward back over the
region Sunday as the upper ridge to the south resituates to the
west.  Have kept fairly high PoPs going Saturday due to the still
close proximity of this mid level circulation, but also on Sunday
when the circulation may very well be right over the region.  In
addition, a weak cold front will move into the region and provide a
low level focus for shower and thunderstorm development.  Although
we will not extend the Flash Flood Watch at this time, it is very
possible it may be extended Saturday, or reissued on Saturday night
or Sunday.  Temperatures will remain below normal for the next
several days since it will take awhile to evaporate all the moisture
and a low level thermal ridge will remain west of the region under
the westward building ua ridge.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

12

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 192336
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings should become mostly MVFR around 06z and continue
through at least mid Saturday morning at the west Texas and
southeast New Mexico terminals. Scattered thunderstorms can be
expected the next 24 hours at most locations due to the remains of
tropical system and have added TEMPO groups for IFR conditions in
thunderstorms. The exceptions were KPEQ and KFST where confidence
was not as high, so included prob30 groups for MVFR conditions.
Looking for prevailing MVFR ceilings to become VFR during Saturday
afternoon.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Major flooding occurring over southeast New Mexico, and the Upper
Trans Pecos in West Texas today.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect,
and despite some downtrend in radar activity, the Watch will
continue though tonight.

Moderate rain showers continue to swirl around a Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) this afternoon, located over the central
Permian Basin.  A few lightning strikes were indicated over the
southern Permian Basin and over the Davis Mountains where some
heating has occurred.  However, hourly rainfall rates were topping
out around 0.25 inches at 19/20Z.  The remnant mid level circulation
of Odile was located over east central New Mexico this afternoon,
and is still discernible in water vapor and visible satellite
imagery.  Heating over the Davis/Glass Mountains will likely aid
scattered thunderstorm development in a moist uncapped environment
through max heating.  Just how much resultant convection will fill
in as it moves east/northeast remains to be seen.  Of more concern
will be whether another MCV develops/spins off, the remnant mid
level circulation form Odile tonight.  Since visible satellite is
indicating another such circulation near Alamogordo this afternoon,
think another round of showers and thunderstorms could develop.
Therefore, will keep likely PoPs going tonight along and north of
Interstate 10, and continue with the Flash Flood Watch until 20/12Z
since flash flood guidance values are very low due to heavy rainfall
over the last 36-48 hours.

The remnants of Odile are progged to move across the Texas Panhandle
tonight and Saturday, but then curl southwestward back over the
region Sunday as the upper ridge to the south resituates to the
west.  Have kept fairly high PoPs going Saturday due to the still
close proximity of this mid level circulation, but also on Sunday
when the circulation may very well be right over the region.  In
addition, a weak cold front will move into the region and provide a
low level focus for shower and thunderstorm development.  Although
we will not extend the Flash Flood Watch at this time, it is very
possible it may be extended Saturday, or reissued on Saturday night
or Sunday.  Temperatures will remain below normal for the next
several days since it will take awhile to evaporate all the moisture
and a low level thermal ridge will remain west of the region under
the westward building ua ridge.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

12

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Major flooding occurring over southeast New Mexico, and the Upper
Trans Pecos in West Texas today.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect,
and despite some downtrend in radar activity, the Watch will
continue though tonight.

Moderate rain showers continue to swirl around a Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) this afternoon, located over the central
Permian Basin.  A few lightning strikes were indicated over the
southern Permian Basin and over the Davis Mountains where some
heating has occurred.  However, hourly rainfall rates were topping
out around 0.25 inches at 19/20Z.  The remnant mid level circulation
of Odile was located over east central New Mexico this afternoon,
and is still discernible in water vapor and visible satellite
imagery.  Heating over the Davis/Glass Mountains will likely aid
scattered thunderstorm development in a moist uncapped environment
through max heating.  Just how much resultant convection will fill
in as it moves east/northeast remains to be seen.  Of more concern
will be whether another MCV develops/spins off, the remnant mid
level circulation form Odile tonight.  Since visible satellite is
indicating another such circulation near Alamogordo this afternoon,
think another round of showers and thunderstorms could develop.
Therefore, will keep likely PoPs going tonight along and north of
Interstate 10, and continue with the Flash Flood Watch until 20/12Z
since flash flood guidance values are very low due to heavy rainfall
over the last 36-48 hours.

The remnants of Odile are progged to move across the Texas Panhandle
tonight and Saturday, but then curl southwestward back over the
region Sunday as the upper ridge to the south resituates to the
west.  Have kept fairly high PoPs going Saturday due to the still
close proximity of this mid level circulation, but also on Sunday
when the circulation may very well be right over the region.  In
addition, a weak cold front will move into the region and provide a
low level focus for shower and thunderstorm development.  Although
we will not extend the Flash Flood Watch at this time, it is very
possible it may be extended Saturday, or reissued on Saturday night
or Sunday.  Temperatures will remain below normal for the next
several days since it will take awhile to evaporate all the moisture
and a low level thermal ridge will remain west of the region under
the westward building ua ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  77  66  77  /  70  70  60  60
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  82  /  60  70  60  50
CARLSBAD NM                66  83  67  78  /  60  40  60  60
DRYDEN TX                  74  93  75  91  /  30  30  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  86  67  80  /  60  30  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  77  61  76  /  50  20  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  78  64  78  /  70  50  60  60
MARFA TX                   62  82  61  78  /  30  30  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  80  67  80  /  60  70  60  50
ODESSA TX                  68  80  67  80  /  60  70  60  50
WINK TX                    69  82  68  84  /  60  40  60  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

29/67

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Major flooding occurring over southeast New Mexico, and the Upper
Trans Pecos in West Texas today.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect,
and despite some downtrend in radar activity, the Watch will
continue though tonight.

Moderate rain showers continue to swirl around a Mesoscale
Convective Vortex (MCV) this afternoon, located over the central
Permian Basin.  A few lightning strikes were indicated over the
southern Permian Basin and over the Davis Mountains where some
heating has occurred.  However, hourly rainfall rates were topping
out around 0.25 inches at 19/20Z.  The remnant mid level circulation
of Odile was located over east central New Mexico this afternoon,
and is still discernible in water vapor and visible satellite
imagery.  Heating over the Davis/Glass Mountains will likely aid
scattered thunderstorm development in a moist uncapped environment
through max heating.  Just how much resultant convection will fill
in as it moves east/northeast remains to be seen.  Of more concern
will be whether another MCV develops/spins off, the remnant mid
level circulation form Odile tonight.  Since visible satellite is
indicating another such circulation near Alamogordo this afternoon,
think another round of showers and thunderstorms could develop.
Therefore, will keep likely PoPs going tonight along and north of
Interstate 10, and continue with the Flash Flood Watch until 20/12Z
since flash flood guidance values are very low due to heavy rainfall
over the last 36-48 hours.

The remnants of Odile are progged to move across the Texas Panhandle
tonight and Saturday, but then curl southwestward back over the
region Sunday as the upper ridge to the south resituates to the
west.  Have kept fairly high PoPs going Saturday due to the still
close proximity of this mid level circulation, but also on Sunday
when the circulation may very well be right over the region.  In
addition, a weak cold front will move into the region and provide a
low level focus for shower and thunderstorm development.  Although
we will not extend the Flash Flood Watch at this time, it is very
possible it may be extended Saturday, or reissued on Saturday night
or Sunday.  Temperatures will remain below normal for the next
several days since it will take awhile to evaporate all the moisture
and a low level thermal ridge will remain west of the region under
the westward building ua ridge.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  77  66  77  /  70  70  60  60
BIG SPRING TX              69  81  69  82  /  60  70  60  50
CARLSBAD NM                66  83  67  78  /  60  40  60  60
DRYDEN TX                  74  93  75  91  /  30  30  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  86  67  80  /  60  30  30  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  77  61  76  /  50  20  50  50
HOBBS NM                   64  78  64  78  /  70  50  60  60
MARFA TX                   62  82  61  78  /  30  30  40  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  80  67  80  /  60  70  60  50
ODESSA TX                  68  80  67  80  /  60  70  60  50
WINK TX                    69  82  68  84  /  60  40  60  60

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

29/67

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191751
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1251 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
Heavy rain was beginning to diminish over the central Permian
Basin, but is still possible at KMAF in the next hour or so.
Other terminals will begin to return to VFR this
afternoon...however more rain is expected tonight with lowering
cigs through Saturday morning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

29

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Check us out on the internet at:
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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191751
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1251 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS
Heavy rain was beginning to diminish over the central Permian
Basin, but is still possible at KMAF in the next hour or so.
Other terminals will begin to return to VFR this
afternoon...however more rain is expected tonight with lowering
cigs through Saturday morning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

29

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Check us out on the internet at:
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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191241
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
741 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to add Ward, Pecos, Crane, Upton and Reagan to the Flash
Flood Watch through tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A Mesoscale Convective Vortex is currently moving across the
forecast area accompanied by a large area of showers and
thunderstorms.  One hour rainfall totals are topping out in the 1-2
inch range with the embedded thunderstorms.  Many areas being
affected by the heavy rainfall right now have had heavy rainfall in
the last 24-36 hours, although it has been spotty further south.
Since the 19/12Z KMAF sounding had a precipitable water of 1.81,
which is over 3 standard deviations above normal, heavy rainfall and
flash flooding are definitely a continuing threat today and tonight.
The showers and thunderstorms on radar are progressing to the
east/southeast, so have decided to add Ward, Pecos, Crane, Upton and
Reagan to the Flash Flood Watch.  Have increased PoPs and
increased rainfall amounts in the forecast.  We may need to extend
the Watch further south later today since the remnants of Odile
appear to be moving eastward over the area, as opposed to
northeast as previous models suggested.  Stay tuned.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

AVIATION...

Forecast soundings remain saturated over the next 24 hours. Basic
trends will be LIFR/IFR cigs in the morning, improving to MVFR/VFR
during the afternoon, and deteriorating back to LIFR/IFR near the
end of the forecast period. Frequent bouts of convection can be expected.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

Will be dealing with the remains of Odile today and through the
weekend as it is hung up in the circulations of an upper ridge.
Models want to circle this energy around W TX.  A cut off low over
CA will roll over the top of the ridge Sunday and Monday but have
little affect on the area.

The region is in the middle of an extended flash flood event.  A
number of locations across SE NM... portions of the Northern Permian
Basin... and the Upper Trans Pecos received heavy rain Thursday and
potential exist again today.  As of 09z flooding continues across
portions of SE NM and Culberson/Reeves counties with ongoing high
water rescues.  Currently have a complex of heavy showers and storms
slowly moving across SE NM and upper Trans Pecos into the Western
Permian Basin.  This MCV is expected to persist through the morning.

Latest national heavy rain discussion focus on CWA with potential of
heavy rain continuing today.  Have a number of features including
moisture/remaining vorticity from Odile... also have moisture from
T.S. Polo to deal with.  Very high PW on MAF 00z sounding of 1.85
inches is unusually high for this far west.  Will go with likely
pops for the northern half of area today.  Went ahead and extended
the FFA out another 12 hrs through tonight.  Rain will continue
Saturday but may be able to trim some of the western counties off
the watch by then as focus shifts to the east.

In addition to flooding concerns had some usually strong storms
mixed into the tropical precip yesterday with strong rotation and
indications of hail.  Could see these strong storms again today and
will highlight in HWO.

Temperatures will be very dependent on rain and cloud cover.  highs
should be mostly in the 80s with a few 70s... but breaks in the sky
could cause some temperatures to climb.  Still looking at a weak
front Sunday... does not look to have a strong passage just a
surface ridge will build south and push the boundary into the area
with the wind becoming easterly along it.  Little change in temps
Sunday or through the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  67  83  68  / 100  70  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  69  84  70  / 100  60  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                81  66  83  68  /  80  60  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  88  74  89  76  /  40  40  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  68  88  69  /  60  50  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  63  83  62  /  60  50  20  20
HOBBS NM                   79  64  82  65  / 100  70  30  30
MARFA TX                   80  62  82  62  /  50  40  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  69  84  69  / 100  60  50  40
ODESSA TX                  83  68  85  68  / 100  60  40  40
WINK TX                    85  69  89  69  / 100  60  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Davis/Apache Mountains
     Area...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe
     Mountains...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...
     Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...
     Scurry...Upton...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

44/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191036
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
536 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Forecast soundings remain saturated over the next 24 hours. Basic
trends will be LIFR/IFR cigs in the morning, improving to MVFR/VFR
during the afternoon, and deteriorating back to LIFR/IFR near the
end of the forecast period. Frequent bouts of convection can be expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Will be dealing with the remains of Odile today and through the
weekend as it is hung up in the circulations of an upper ridge.
Models want to circle this energy around W TX.  A cut off low over
CA will roll over the top of the ridge Sunday and Monday but have
little affect on the area.

The region is in the middle of an extended flash flood event.  A
number of locations across SE NM... portions of the Northern Permian
Basin... and the Upper Trans Pecos received heavy rain Thursday and
potential exist again today.  As of 09z flooding continues across
portions of SE NM and Culberson/Reeves counties with ongoing high
water rescues.  Currently have a complex of heavy showers and storms
slowly moving across SE NM and upper Trans Pecos into the Western
Permian Basin.  This MCV is expected to persist through the morning.

Latest national heavy rain discussion focus on CWA with potential of
heavy rain continuing today.  Have a number of features including
moisture/remaining vorticity from Odile... also have moisture from
T.S. Polo to deal with.  Very high PW on MAF 00z sounding of 1.85
inches is unusually high for this far west.  Will go with likely
pops for the northern half of area today.  Went ahead and extended
the FFA out another 12 hrs through tonight.  Rain will continue
Saturday but may be able to trim some of the western counties off
the watch by then as focus shifts to the east.

In addition to flooding concerns had some usually strong storms
mixed into the tropical precip yesterday with strong rotation and
indications of hail.  Could see these strong storms again today and
will highlight in HWO.

Temperatures will be very dependent on rain and cloud cover.  highs
should be mostly in the 80s with a few 70s... but breaks in the sky
could cause some temperatures to climb.  Still looking at a weak
front Sunday... does not look to have a strong passage just a
surface ridge will build south and push the boundary into the area
with the wind becoming easterly along it.  Little change in temps
Sunday or through the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 191036
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
536 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Forecast soundings remain saturated over the next 24 hours. Basic
trends will be LIFR/IFR cigs in the morning, improving to MVFR/VFR
during the afternoon, and deteriorating back to LIFR/IFR near the
end of the forecast period. Frequent bouts of convection can be expected.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Will be dealing with the remains of Odile today and through the
weekend as it is hung up in the circulations of an upper ridge.
Models want to circle this energy around W TX.  A cut off low over
CA will roll over the top of the ridge Sunday and Monday but have
little affect on the area.

The region is in the middle of an extended flash flood event.  A
number of locations across SE NM... portions of the Northern Permian
Basin... and the Upper Trans Pecos received heavy rain Thursday and
potential exist again today.  As of 09z flooding continues across
portions of SE NM and Culberson/Reeves counties with ongoing high
water rescues.  Currently have a complex of heavy showers and storms
slowly moving across SE NM and upper Trans Pecos into the Western
Permian Basin.  This MCV is expected to persist through the morning.

Latest national heavy rain discussion focus on CWA with potential of
heavy rain continuing today.  Have a number of features including
moisture/remaining vorticity from Odile... also have moisture from
T.S. Polo to deal with.  Very high PW on MAF 00z sounding of 1.85
inches is unusually high for this far west.  Will go with likely
pops for the northern half of area today.  Went ahead and extended
the FFA out another 12 hrs through tonight.  Rain will continue
Saturday but may be able to trim some of the western counties off
the watch by then as focus shifts to the east.

In addition to flooding concerns had some usually strong storms
mixed into the tropical precip yesterday with strong rotation and
indications of hail.  Could see these strong storms again today and
will highlight in HWO.

Temperatures will be very dependent on rain and cloud cover.  highs
should be mostly in the 80s with a few 70s... but breaks in the sky
could cause some temperatures to climb.  Still looking at a weak
front Sunday... does not look to have a strong passage just a
surface ridge will build south and push the boundary into the area
with the wind becoming easterly along it.  Little change in temps
Sunday or through the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 190919
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
419 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Will be dealing with the remains of Odile today and through the
weekend as it is hung up in the circulations of an upper ridge.
Models want to circle this energy around W TX.  A cut off low over
CA will roll over the top of the ridge Sunday and Monday but have
little affect on the area.

The region is in the middle of an extended flash flood event.  A
number of locations across SE NM... portions of the Northern Permian
Basin... and the Upper Trans Pecos received heavy rain Thursday and
potential exist again today.  As of 09z flooding continues across
portions of SE NM and Culberson/Reeves counties with ongoing high
water rescues.  Currently have a complex of heavy showers and storms
slowly moving across SE NM and upper Trans Pecos into the Western
Permian Basin.  This MCV is expected to persist through the morning.

Latest national heavy rain discussion focus on CWA with potential of
heavy rain continuing today.  Have a number of features including
moisture/remaining vorticity from Odile... also have moisture from
T.S. Polo to deal with.  Very high PW on MAF 00z sounding of 1.85
inches is unusually high for this far west.  Will go with likely
pops for the northern half of area today.  Went ahead and extended
the FFA out another 12 hrs through tonight.  Rain will continue
Saturday but may be able to trim some of the western counties off
the watch by then as focus shifts to the east.

In addition to flooding concerns had some usually strong storms
mixed into the tropical precip yesterday with strong rotation and
indications of hail.  Could see these strong storms again today and
will highlight in HWO.

Temperatures will be very dependent on rain and cloud cover.  highs
should be mostly in the 80s with a few 70s... but breaks in the sky
could cause some temperatures to climb.  Still looking at a weak
front Sunday... does not look to have a strong passage just a
surface ridge will build south and push the boundary into the area
with the wind becoming easterly along it.  Little change in temps
Sunday or through the rest of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  67  83  68  /  70  70  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  69  84  70  /  60  60  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                81  66  83  68  /  70  60  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  88  74  89  76  /  40  40  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  68  88  69  /  60  50  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  63  83  62  /  60  50  20  20
HOBBS NM                   79  64  82  65  /  70  70  30  30
MARFA TX                   80  62  82  62  /  50  40  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  69  84  69  /  60  60  50  40
ODESSA TX                  83  68  85  68  /  60  60  40  40
WINK TX                    85  69  89  69  /  70  60  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 190919
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
419 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Will be dealing with the remains of Odile today and through the
weekend as it is hung up in the circulations of an upper ridge.
Models want to circle this energy around W TX.  A cut off low over
CA will roll over the top of the ridge Sunday and Monday but have
little affect on the area.

The region is in the middle of an extended flash flood event.  A
number of locations across SE NM... portions of the Northern Permian
Basin... and the Upper Trans Pecos received heavy rain Thursday and
potential exist again today.  As of 09z flooding continues across
portions of SE NM and Culberson/Reeves counties with ongoing high
water rescues.  Currently have a complex of heavy showers and storms
slowly moving across SE NM and upper Trans Pecos into the Western
Permian Basin.  This MCV is expected to persist through the morning.

Latest national heavy rain discussion focus on CWA with potential of
heavy rain continuing today.  Have a number of features including
moisture/remaining vorticity from Odile... also have moisture from
T.S. Polo to deal with.  Very high PW on MAF 00z sounding of 1.85
inches is unusually high for this far west.  Will go with likely
pops for the northern half of area today.  Went ahead and extended
the FFA out another 12 hrs through tonight.  Rain will continue
Saturday but may be able to trim some of the western counties off
the watch by then as focus shifts to the east.

In addition to flooding concerns had some usually strong storms
mixed into the tropical precip yesterday with strong rotation and
indications of hail.  Could see these strong storms again today and
will highlight in HWO.

Temperatures will be very dependent on rain and cloud cover.  highs
should be mostly in the 80s with a few 70s... but breaks in the sky
could cause some temperatures to climb.  Still looking at a weak
front Sunday... does not look to have a strong passage just a
surface ridge will build south and push the boundary into the area
with the wind becoming easterly along it.  Little change in temps
Sunday or through the rest of the week.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  67  83  68  /  70  70  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  69  84  70  /  60  60  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                81  66  83  68  /  70  60  30  20
DRYDEN TX                  88  74  89  76  /  40  40  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  68  88  69  /  60  50  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  63  83  62  /  60  50  20  20
HOBBS NM                   79  64  82  65  /  70  70  30  30
MARFA TX                   80  62  82  62  /  50  40  30  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    82  69  84  69  /  60  60  50  40
ODESSA TX                  83  68  85  68  /  60  60  40  40
WINK TX                    85  69  89  69  /  70  60  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Saturday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 190518
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1218 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR ceilings expected overnight through Friday morning
at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. Scattered
thunderstorms can be expected the next 24 hours and have added
TEMPO groups for tempo MVFR to IFR conditions in thunderstorms.
Looking for MVFR ceilings to become VFR by Friday afternoon with
MVFR ceilings likely returning Friday night.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR ceilings should become MVFR before 06z and continue through
at least mid Friday morning at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected the
next 24 hours and have added TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions
in thunderstorms. Looking for MVFR ceilings to become VFR by
late Friday morning.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Several areas across SE NM and northern Permian Basin received
moderate to heavy rainfall overnight and then throughout the
morning respectively, dropping over 2 inches of rain across some
locations. Clouds have thinned quite a bit this afternoon over
portions of the region, increasing instability across these
areas. Some isolated convection beginning to develop near the
Davis Mountains and we expect scattered activity to continue
through this evening. A weak outflow boundary just south of a
Wink to Midland to Garden City line will also serve as a focus
for thunderstorm development through the afternoon.

Flow aloft is nearly WSW today with the upper ridge flattened
somewhat to the south as the remnants of Odile wobbles toward
central NM. Our next disturbance from Odile will approach the region
this evening, increasing showers and thunderstorms across western
zones initially then shifting WNW overnight, treking across SE NM.
Many of these areas have already received 1-2 inches last night and
another 1-3 inches can be expected tonight. Friday, the upper ridge
looks to weaken further with the remnants of Odile progged to move
very close if not directly over SE NM, leading to another day of
rainfall over the same areas. And just as we are seeing this
afternoon, any breaks in the clouds during peak heating will
increase instability, adding to increased thunderstorm chances. The
atmosphere remains extremely moist with PWs near 160% of normal and
cell motion will be rather slow so moderate/heavy rainfall is
possible and the potential for flooding/flash flooding continues,
particularly across areas that receive multiple rounds of rainfall.
Will continue with moderate/heavy rain wording in the zones for
mainly the northern half of the CWA and the Davis Mountains region.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday for all of SE
New Mexico, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn and the hwy 54
corridor, upper Trans Pecos and much of the Permian Basin.

The wet pattern looks to persist into the weekend as model guidance
indicates precip continuing with remnants of Odile still hanging
around and a weak cold front still on tap to arrive Sunday. Rain
chances may continue Monday if the front hangs around, but models
shunt best moisture to the west so thunderstorms may only be
confined to the higher terrain. Beyond Monday, NW flow aloft looks
to develop which would continue rain chances as shortwaves move SE
across the area. For now, will hold onto silent PoPs during this
time.

Temperatures remain difficult due to clouds and rain but in general
expect highs in the in the mid to low 80s Friday then increasing a
couple degrees Saturday before the cold front arrives Sunday,
knocking temps back down heading into next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$



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000
FXUS64 KMAF 190518
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1218 AM CDT Fri Sep 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly MVFR ceilings expected overnight through Friday morning
at the west Texas and southeast New Mexico terminals. Scattered
thunderstorms can be expected the next 24 hours and have added
TEMPO groups for tempo MVFR to IFR conditions in thunderstorms.
Looking for MVFR ceilings to become VFR by Friday afternoon with
MVFR ceilings likely returning Friday night.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
VFR ceilings should become MVFR before 06z and continue through
at least mid Friday morning at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected the
next 24 hours and have added TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions
in thunderstorms. Looking for MVFR ceilings to become VFR by
late Friday morning.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Several areas across SE NM and northern Permian Basin received
moderate to heavy rainfall overnight and then throughout the
morning respectively, dropping over 2 inches of rain across some
locations. Clouds have thinned quite a bit this afternoon over
portions of the region, increasing instability across these
areas. Some isolated convection beginning to develop near the
Davis Mountains and we expect scattered activity to continue
through this evening. A weak outflow boundary just south of a
Wink to Midland to Garden City line will also serve as a focus
for thunderstorm development through the afternoon.

Flow aloft is nearly WSW today with the upper ridge flattened
somewhat to the south as the remnants of Odile wobbles toward
central NM. Our next disturbance from Odile will approach the region
this evening, increasing showers and thunderstorms across western
zones initially then shifting WNW overnight, treking across SE NM.
Many of these areas have already received 1-2 inches last night and
another 1-3 inches can be expected tonight. Friday, the upper ridge
looks to weaken further with the remnants of Odile progged to move
very close if not directly over SE NM, leading to another day of
rainfall over the same areas. And just as we are seeing this
afternoon, any breaks in the clouds during peak heating will
increase instability, adding to increased thunderstorm chances. The
atmosphere remains extremely moist with PWs near 160% of normal and
cell motion will be rather slow so moderate/heavy rainfall is
possible and the potential for flooding/flash flooding continues,
particularly across areas that receive multiple rounds of rainfall.
Will continue with moderate/heavy rain wording in the zones for
mainly the northern half of the CWA and the Davis Mountains region.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday for all of SE
New Mexico, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn and the hwy 54
corridor, upper Trans Pecos and much of the Permian Basin.

The wet pattern looks to persist into the weekend as model guidance
indicates precip continuing with remnants of Odile still hanging
around and a weak cold front still on tap to arrive Sunday. Rain
chances may continue Monday if the front hangs around, but models
shunt best moisture to the west so thunderstorms may only be
confined to the higher terrain. Beyond Monday, NW flow aloft looks
to develop which would continue rain chances as shortwaves move SE
across the area. For now, will hold onto silent PoPs during this
time.

Temperatures remain difficult due to clouds and rain but in general
expect highs in the in the mid to low 80s Friday then increasing a
couple degrees Saturday before the cold front arrives Sunday,
knocking temps back down heading into next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...Howard...
     Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$



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000
FXUS64 KMAF 182312
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
612 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR ceilings should become MVFR before 06z and continue through
at least mid Friday morning at the west Texas and southeast New
Mexico terminals. Scattered thunderstorms can be expected the
next 24 hours and have added TEMPO groups for MVFR conditions
in thunderstorms. Looking for MVFR ceilings to become VFR by
late Friday morning.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Several areas across SE NM and northern Permian Basin received
moderate to heavy rainfall overnight and then throughout the
morning respectively, dropping over 2 inches of rain across some
locations. Clouds have thinned quite a bit this afternoon over
portions of the region, increasing instability across these
areas. Some isolated convection beginning to develop near the
Davis Mountains and we expect scattered activity to continue
through this evening. A weak outflow boundary just south of a
Wink to Midland to Garden City line will also serve as a focus
for thunderstorm development through the afternoon.

Flow aloft is nearly WSW today with the upper ridge flattened
somewhat to the south as the remnants of Odile wobbles toward
central NM. Our next disturbance from Odile will approach the region
this evening, increasing showers and thunderstorms across western
zones initially then shifting WNW overnight, treking across SE NM.
Many of these areas have already received 1-2 inches last night and
another 1-3 inches can be expected tonight. Friday, the upper ridge
looks to weaken further with the remnants of Odile progged to move
very close if not directly over SE NM, leading to another day of
rainfall over the same areas. And just as we are seeing this
afternoon, any breaks in the clouds during peak heating will
increase instability, adding to increased thunderstorm chances. The
atmosphere remains extremely moist with PWs near 160% of normal and
cell motion will be rather slow so moderate/heavy rainfall is
possible and the potential for flooding/flash flooding continues,
particularly across areas that receive multiple rounds of rainfall.
Will continue with moderate/heavy rain wording in the zones for
mainly the northern half of the CWA and the Davis Mountains region.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday for all of SE
New Mexico, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn and the hwy 54
corridor, upper Trans Pecos and much of the Permian Basin.

The wet pattern looks to persist into the weekend as model guidance
indicates precip continuing with remnants of Odile still hanging
around and a weak cold front still on tap to arrive Sunday. Rain
chances may continue Monday if the front hangs around, but models
shunt best moisture to the west so thunderstorms may only be
confined to the higher terrain. Beyond Monday, NW flow aloft looks
to develop which would continue rain chances as shortwaves move SE
across the area. For now, will hold onto silent PoPs during this
time.

Temperatures remain difficult due to clouds and rain but in general
expect highs in the in the mid to low 80s Friday then increasing a
couple degrees Saturday before the cold front arrives Sunday,
knocking temps back down heading into next week.

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  81  68  /  70  40  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  68  84  70  /  60  30  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                79  68  84  67  /  70  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  91  73  91  73  /  40  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  69  86  69  /  50  40  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  63  78  64  /  70  60  40  30
HOBBS NM                   78  65  79  65  /  70  60  60  40
MARFA TX                   80  62  81  61  /  50  50  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  69  83  70  /  70  40  40  30
ODESSA TX                  83  69  82  70  /  70  40  40  30
WINK TX                    84  69  86  70  /  70  50  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 182003
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
303 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Several areas across SE NM and northern Permian Basin received
moderate to heavy rainfall overnight and then throughout the
morning respectively, dropping over 2 inches of rain across some
locations. Clouds have thinned quite a bit this afternoon over
portions of the region, increasing instability across these
areas. Some isolated convection beginning to develop near the
Davis Mountains and we expect scattered activity to continue
through this evening. A weak outflow boundary just south of a
Wink to Midland to Garden City line will also serve as a focus
for thunderstorm development through the afternoon.

Flow aloft is nearly WSW today with the upper ridge flattened
somewhat to the south as the remnants of Odile wobbles toward
central NM. Our next disturbance from Odile will approach the region
this evening, increasing showers and thunderstorms across western
zones initially then shifting WNW overnight, treking across SE NM.
Many of these areas have already received 1-2 inches last night and
another 1-3 inches can be expected tonight. Friday, the upper ridge
looks to weaken further with the remnants of Odile progged to move
very close if not directly over SE NM, leading to another day of
rainfall over the same areas. And just as we are seeing this
afternoon, any breaks in the clouds during peak heating will
increase instability, adding to increased thunderstorm chances. The
atmosphere remains extremely moist with PWs near 160% of normal and
cell motion will be rather slow so moderate/heavy rainfall is
possible and the potential for flooding/flash flooding continues,
particularly across areas that receive multiple rounds of rainfall.
Will continue with moderate/heavy rain wording in the zones for
mainly the northern half of the CWA and the Davis Mountains region.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday for all of SE
New Mexico, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn and the hwy 54
corridor, upper Trans Pecos and much of the Permian Basin.

The wet pattern looks to persist into the weekend as model guidance
indicates precip continuing with remnants of Odile still hanging
around and a weak cold front still on tap to arrive Sunday. Rain
chances may continue Monday if the front hangs around, but models
shunt best moisture to the west so thunderstorms may only be
confined to the higher terrain. Beyond Monday, NW flow aloft looks
to develop which would continue rain chances as shortwaves move SE
across the area. For now, will hold onto silent PoPs during this
time.

Temperatures remain difficult due to clouds and rain but in general
expect highs in the in the mid to low 80s Friday then increasing a
couple degrees Saturday before the cold front arrives Sunday,
knocking temps back down heading into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  82  68  85  /  70  60  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              69  84  70  85  /  60  50  50  50
CARLSBAD NM                68  81  67  84  /  80  60  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  75  89  75  90  /  40  30  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  86  69  89  /  50  40  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  80  64  84  /  70  40  30  20
HOBBS NM                   66  79  65  82  /  80  70  50  30
MARFA TX                   62  81  62  83  /  50  40  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  84  70  86  /  60  50  40  40
ODESSA TX                  69  84  69  86  /  60  50  40  40
WINK TX                    71  88  71  91  /  60  50  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 182003
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
303 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Several areas across SE NM and northern Permian Basin received
moderate to heavy rainfall overnight and then throughout the
morning respectively, dropping over 2 inches of rain across some
locations. Clouds have thinned quite a bit this afternoon over
portions of the region, increasing instability across these
areas. Some isolated convection beginning to develop near the
Davis Mountains and we expect scattered activity to continue
through this evening. A weak outflow boundary just south of a
Wink to Midland to Garden City line will also serve as a focus
for thunderstorm development through the afternoon.

Flow aloft is nearly WSW today with the upper ridge flattened
somewhat to the south as the remnants of Odile wobbles toward
central NM. Our next disturbance from Odile will approach the region
this evening, increasing showers and thunderstorms across western
zones initially then shifting WNW overnight, treking across SE NM.
Many of these areas have already received 1-2 inches last night and
another 1-3 inches can be expected tonight. Friday, the upper ridge
looks to weaken further with the remnants of Odile progged to move
very close if not directly over SE NM, leading to another day of
rainfall over the same areas. And just as we are seeing this
afternoon, any breaks in the clouds during peak heating will
increase instability, adding to increased thunderstorm chances. The
atmosphere remains extremely moist with PWs near 160% of normal and
cell motion will be rather slow so moderate/heavy rainfall is
possible and the potential for flooding/flash flooding continues,
particularly across areas that receive multiple rounds of rainfall.
Will continue with moderate/heavy rain wording in the zones for
mainly the northern half of the CWA and the Davis Mountains region.
A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday for all of SE
New Mexico, Guadalupe and Davis Mountains, Van Horn and the hwy 54
corridor, upper Trans Pecos and much of the Permian Basin.

The wet pattern looks to persist into the weekend as model guidance
indicates precip continuing with remnants of Odile still hanging
around and a weak cold front still on tap to arrive Sunday. Rain
chances may continue Monday if the front hangs around, but models
shunt best moisture to the west so thunderstorms may only be
confined to the higher terrain. Beyond Monday, NW flow aloft looks
to develop which would continue rain chances as shortwaves move SE
across the area. For now, will hold onto silent PoPs during this
time.

Temperatures remain difficult due to clouds and rain but in general
expect highs in the in the mid to low 80s Friday then increasing a
couple degrees Saturday before the cold front arrives Sunday,
knocking temps back down heading into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  82  68  85  /  70  60  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              69  84  70  85  /  60  50  50  50
CARLSBAD NM                68  81  67  84  /  80  60  40  30
DRYDEN TX                  75  89  75  90  /  40  30  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  86  69  89  /  50  40  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  80  64  84  /  70  40  30  20
HOBBS NM                   66  79  65  82  /  80  70  50  30
MARFA TX                   62  81  62  83  /  50  40  20  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  84  70  86  /  60  50  40  40
ODESSA TX                  69  84  69  86  /  60  50  40  40
WINK TX                    71  88  71  91  /  60  50  40  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 181743
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1243 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening at all but
KMAF and KINK where MVFR ceilings will hang in until at least
18/20Z. Think more thunderstorms will develop through this
evening, so have included TSRA at all TAF sites. Will lower
ceilings to MVFR at most sites tonight, but later issuances will
tackle more reductions in ceiling and visibility due to heavy rain
and fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to expand the Flash Flood Watch to the Davis Mountains and
across portions of the Permian Basin.

DISCUSSION...

Remnants of tropical system Odile were located west of El Paso this
morning, and moving east/northeastward.  Copious amounts of moisture
associated with Odile have allowed PWats to rise to 1.75 inches,
which is verified on the KMAF sounding, and is around 3 standard
deviations above normal.  Moderate to heavy rain was occurring over
the northern Permian Basin around 18/15Z, while portions of Eddy,
Lea, Gaines and Andrews counties had heavy rainfall in the last 6 to
8 hours.  Some of these locations have received 3 to 4 inches.

A Mesoscale Convective Vortex was moving across Gaines County in the
northern Permian Basin.  This MCV may move out of the CWA in the
next few hours, however there are indications in Water Vapor imagery
that additional mid level circulations will be moving over the
forecast area this afternoon and tonight.  As the atmosphere
destabilizes from in and around the Davis Mountains to the Guadalupe
Mountains, progs are indicating upwards of 1000 J/Kg, expect
additional showers and thunderstorms to develop and spread east and
northeastward across the forecast area.  Expect subsequent showers
and storms to move around 10 to 15 mph, with some of the storms
possibly producing up to 1.5 inches of rainfall in an hour.
Considering the above, have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to
include the Davis Mountains, and much of the Permian Basin.  Also,
expanded the FFA until 20/00Z.  Will send an update to the forecast
shortly.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

AVIATION...

WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile opening up and set to move
over West Texas/SE NM in SW flow aloft later today. TAFs will be
messy, but most terminals should stay VFR through 00Z Friday except
KCNM, which should vary between MVFR and VFR at times. Lwr
cigs/visibilities can be expected in areas of direct convection.
forecast soundings suggest IFR cigs at KCNM/KHOB after 00Z, and
MVFR at KMAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Wind flow around the upper ridge extending from Mexico up across the
Rockies will continue to pull tropical moisture from Odile across the
region.  What is left of the circulation of Odile will be pulled
east while a cut off low works down the CA coast.

Had some storms overnight across the Central Permian Basin with
radar estimating over 2 inches of rainfall with the heavier
storms... but most of these have dissipated.  Heavy rain north of
ELP has drifted into the western zones as of 09z.  Currently have
Flash Flood Warnings in effect for Eddy and Culberson counties.  The
airmass is very moist... MAF 00z sounding had a PW near 1.5 inches
and model soundings push this over 1.8 inches today... so potential
exists for heavy rainfall.  Have upped pops over Eddy and Lea county
today to 70 percent but have also stretched likely pops all the way
across the Northern Permian Basin to Snyder.  In addition to rain
moving in from the west... models are developing a large area of
rain along what looks like a boundary that extends from the Gulf
coast to the South Plains and crosses the NE Permian Basin.  Have
extended the FF Watch another 24 hrs through tonight and added
Reeves... Loving... Andrews... and Gaines to it.  Depending how
storms develop today later shifts may need to add the Davis Mtn or
Dawson county to the watch.

Temperatures today will be a challenge and highly dependent on
exactly where rain forms.  The last couple of days the sun has been
able to break out during the late afternoon and push temps up to
normal or above.  It could happen again today so have increased highs
today... but kept highs in the 70s over NM where rain should be
heavier/more frequent.

Still looking at a front making into the region Sunday.  Fropa does
not look to be strong... instead it just bridges down into the area
as the surface ridge builds south.  Not expecting that much cooling
with it.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 181743
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1243 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and evening at all but
KMAF and KINK where MVFR ceilings will hang in until at least
18/20Z. Think more thunderstorms will develop through this
evening, so have included TSRA at all TAF sites. Will lower
ceilings to MVFR at most sites tonight, but later issuances will
tackle more reductions in ceiling and visibility due to heavy rain
and fog.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to expand the Flash Flood Watch to the Davis Mountains and
across portions of the Permian Basin.

DISCUSSION...

Remnants of tropical system Odile were located west of El Paso this
morning, and moving east/northeastward.  Copious amounts of moisture
associated with Odile have allowed PWats to rise to 1.75 inches,
which is verified on the KMAF sounding, and is around 3 standard
deviations above normal.  Moderate to heavy rain was occurring over
the northern Permian Basin around 18/15Z, while portions of Eddy,
Lea, Gaines and Andrews counties had heavy rainfall in the last 6 to
8 hours.  Some of these locations have received 3 to 4 inches.

A Mesoscale Convective Vortex was moving across Gaines County in the
northern Permian Basin.  This MCV may move out of the CWA in the
next few hours, however there are indications in Water Vapor imagery
that additional mid level circulations will be moving over the
forecast area this afternoon and tonight.  As the atmosphere
destabilizes from in and around the Davis Mountains to the Guadalupe
Mountains, progs are indicating upwards of 1000 J/Kg, expect
additional showers and thunderstorms to develop and spread east and
northeastward across the forecast area.  Expect subsequent showers
and storms to move around 10 to 15 mph, with some of the storms
possibly producing up to 1.5 inches of rainfall in an hour.
Considering the above, have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to
include the Davis Mountains, and much of the Permian Basin.  Also,
expanded the FFA until 20/00Z.  Will send an update to the forecast
shortly.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

AVIATION...

WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile opening up and set to move
over West Texas/SE NM in SW flow aloft later today. TAFs will be
messy, but most terminals should stay VFR through 00Z Friday except
KCNM, which should vary between MVFR and VFR at times. Lwr
cigs/visibilities can be expected in areas of direct convection.
forecast soundings suggest IFR cigs at KCNM/KHOB after 00Z, and
MVFR at KMAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Wind flow around the upper ridge extending from Mexico up across the
Rockies will continue to pull tropical moisture from Odile across the
region.  What is left of the circulation of Odile will be pulled
east while a cut off low works down the CA coast.

Had some storms overnight across the Central Permian Basin with
radar estimating over 2 inches of rainfall with the heavier
storms... but most of these have dissipated.  Heavy rain north of
ELP has drifted into the western zones as of 09z.  Currently have
Flash Flood Warnings in effect for Eddy and Culberson counties.  The
airmass is very moist... MAF 00z sounding had a PW near 1.5 inches
and model soundings push this over 1.8 inches today... so potential
exists for heavy rainfall.  Have upped pops over Eddy and Lea county
today to 70 percent but have also stretched likely pops all the way
across the Northern Permian Basin to Snyder.  In addition to rain
moving in from the west... models are developing a large area of
rain along what looks like a boundary that extends from the Gulf
coast to the South Plains and crosses the NE Permian Basin.  Have
extended the FF Watch another 24 hrs through tonight and added
Reeves... Loving... Andrews... and Gaines to it.  Depending how
storms develop today later shifts may need to add the Davis Mtn or
Dawson county to the watch.

Temperatures today will be a challenge and highly dependent on
exactly where rain forms.  The last couple of days the sun has been
able to break out during the late afternoon and push temps up to
normal or above.  It could happen again today so have increased highs
today... but kept highs in the 70s over NM where rain should be
heavier/more frequent.

Still looking at a front making into the region Sunday.  Fropa does
not look to be strong... instead it just bridges down into the area
as the surface ridge builds south.  Not expecting that much cooling
with it.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 181540
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1040 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to expand the Flash Flood Watch to the Davis Mountains and
across portions of the Permian Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Remnants of tropical system Odile were located west of El Paso this
morning, and moving east/northeastward.  Copious amounts of moisture
associated with Odile have allowed PWats to rise to 1.75 inches,
which is verified on the KMAF sounding, and is around 3 standard
deviations above normal.  Moderate to heavy rain was occurring over
the northern Permian Basin around 18/15Z, while portions of Eddy,
Lea, Gaines and Andrews counties had heavy rainfall in the last 6 to
8 hours.  Some of these locations have received 3 to 4 inches.

A Mesoscale Convective Vortex was moving across Gaines County in the
northern Permian Basin.  This MCV may move out of the CWA in the
next few hours, however there are indications in Water Vapor imagery
that additional mid level circulations will be moving over the
forecast area this afternoon and tonight.  As the atmosphere
destabilizes from in and around the Davis Mountains to the Guadalupe
Mountains, progs are indicating upwards of 1000 J/Kg, expect
additional showers and thunderstorms to develop and spread east and
northeastward across the forecast area.  Expect subsequent showers
and storms to move around 10 to 15 mph, with some of the storms
possibly producing up to 1.5 inches of rainfall in an hour.
Considering the above, have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to
include the Davis Mountains, and much of the Permian Basin.  Also,
expanded the FFA until 20/00Z.  Will send an update to the forecast
shortly.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

AVIATION...

WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile opening up and set to move
over West Texas/SE NM in SW flow aloft later today. TAFs will be
messy, but most terminals should stay VFR through 00Z Friday except
KCNM, which should vary between MVFR and VFR at times. Lwr
cigs/visibilities can be expected in areas of direct convection.
forecast soundings suggest IFR cigs at KCNM/KHOB after 00Z, and
MVFR at KMAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Wind flow around the upper ridge extending from Mexico up across the
Rockies will continue to pull tropical moisture from Odile across the
region.  What is left of the circulation of Odile will be pulled
east while a cut off low works down the CA coast.

Had some storms overnight across the Central Permian Basin with
radar estimating over 2 inches of rainfall with the heavier
storms... but most of these have dissipated.  Heavy rain north of
ELP has drifted into the western zones as of 09z.  Currently have
Flash Flood Warnings in effect for Eddy and Culberson counties.  The
airmass is very moist... MAF 00z sounding had a PW near 1.5 inches
and model soundings push this over 1.8 inches today... so potential
exists for heavy rainfall.  Have upped pops over Eddy and Lea county
today to 70 percent but have also stretched likely pops all the way
across the Northern Permian Basin to Snyder.  In addition to rain
moving in from the west... models are developing a large area of
rain along what looks like a boundary that extends from the Gulf
coast to the South Plains and crosses the NE Permian Basin.  Have
extended the FF Watch another 24 hrs through tonight and added
Reeves... Loving... Andrews... and Gaines to it.  Depending how
storms develop today later shifts may need to add the Davis Mtn or
Dawson county to the watch.

Temperatures today will be a challenge and highly dependent on
exactly where rain forms.  The last couple of days the sun has been
able to break out during the late afternoon and push temps up to
normal or above.  It could happen again today so have increased highs
today... but kept highs in the 70s over NM where rain should be
heavier/more frequent.

Still looking at a front making into the region Sunday.  Fropa does
not look to be strong... instead it just bridges down into the area
as the surface ridge builds south.  Not expecting that much cooling
with it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  81  68  /  70  40  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  68  84  70  /  60  30  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                79  68  84  67  /  70  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  91  73  91  73  /  40  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  69  86  69  /  50  40  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  63  78  64  /  70  60  40  30
HOBBS NM                   78  65  79  65  /  70  60  60  40
MARFA TX                   80  62  81  61  /  50  50  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  69  83  70  /  70  40  40  30
ODESSA TX                  83  69  82  70  /  70  40  40  30
WINK TX                    84  69  86  70  /  70  50  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/72

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http://weather.gov/midland





000
FXUS64 KMAF 181540
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1040 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to expand the Flash Flood Watch to the Davis Mountains and
across portions of the Permian Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Remnants of tropical system Odile were located west of El Paso this
morning, and moving east/northeastward.  Copious amounts of moisture
associated with Odile have allowed PWats to rise to 1.75 inches,
which is verified on the KMAF sounding, and is around 3 standard
deviations above normal.  Moderate to heavy rain was occurring over
the northern Permian Basin around 18/15Z, while portions of Eddy,
Lea, Gaines and Andrews counties had heavy rainfall in the last 6 to
8 hours.  Some of these locations have received 3 to 4 inches.

A Mesoscale Convective Vortex was moving across Gaines County in the
northern Permian Basin.  This MCV may move out of the CWA in the
next few hours, however there are indications in Water Vapor imagery
that additional mid level circulations will be moving over the
forecast area this afternoon and tonight.  As the atmosphere
destabilizes from in and around the Davis Mountains to the Guadalupe
Mountains, progs are indicating upwards of 1000 J/Kg, expect
additional showers and thunderstorms to develop and spread east and
northeastward across the forecast area.  Expect subsequent showers
and storms to move around 10 to 15 mph, with some of the storms
possibly producing up to 1.5 inches of rainfall in an hour.
Considering the above, have expanded the Flash Flood Watch to
include the Davis Mountains, and much of the Permian Basin.  Also,
expanded the FFA until 20/00Z.  Will send an update to the forecast
shortly.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 539 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

AVIATION...

WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile opening up and set to move
over West Texas/SE NM in SW flow aloft later today. TAFs will be
messy, but most terminals should stay VFR through 00Z Friday except
KCNM, which should vary between MVFR and VFR at times. Lwr
cigs/visibilities can be expected in areas of direct convection.
forecast soundings suggest IFR cigs at KCNM/KHOB after 00Z, and
MVFR at KMAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Wind flow around the upper ridge extending from Mexico up across the
Rockies will continue to pull tropical moisture from Odile across the
region.  What is left of the circulation of Odile will be pulled
east while a cut off low works down the CA coast.

Had some storms overnight across the Central Permian Basin with
radar estimating over 2 inches of rainfall with the heavier
storms... but most of these have dissipated.  Heavy rain north of
ELP has drifted into the western zones as of 09z.  Currently have
Flash Flood Warnings in effect for Eddy and Culberson counties.  The
airmass is very moist... MAF 00z sounding had a PW near 1.5 inches
and model soundings push this over 1.8 inches today... so potential
exists for heavy rainfall.  Have upped pops over Eddy and Lea county
today to 70 percent but have also stretched likely pops all the way
across the Northern Permian Basin to Snyder.  In addition to rain
moving in from the west... models are developing a large area of
rain along what looks like a boundary that extends from the Gulf
coast to the South Plains and crosses the NE Permian Basin.  Have
extended the FF Watch another 24 hrs through tonight and added
Reeves... Loving... Andrews... and Gaines to it.  Depending how
storms develop today later shifts may need to add the Davis Mtn or
Dawson county to the watch.

Temperatures today will be a challenge and highly dependent on
exactly where rain forms.  The last couple of days the sun has been
able to break out during the late afternoon and push temps up to
normal or above.  It could happen again today so have increased highs
today... but kept highs in the 70s over NM where rain should be
heavier/more frequent.

Still looking at a front making into the region Sunday.  Fropa does
not look to be strong... instead it just bridges down into the area
as the surface ridge builds south.  Not expecting that much cooling
with it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  81  68  /  70  40  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  68  84  70  /  60  30  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                79  68  84  67  /  70  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  91  73  91  73  /  40  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  69  86  69  /  50  40  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  63  78  64  /  70  60  40  30
HOBBS NM                   78  65  79  65  /  70  60  60  40
MARFA TX                   80  62  81  61  /  50  50  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  69  83  70  /  70  40  40  30
ODESSA TX                  83  69  82  70  /  70  40  40  30
WINK TX                    84  69  86  70  /  70  50  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday afternoon FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Dawson...Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Guadalupe Mountains...
     Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...Mitchell...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 181039
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
539 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile opening up and set to move
over West Texas/SE NM in SW flow aloft later today. TAFs will be
messy, but most terminals should stay VFR through 00Z Friday except
KCNM, which should vary between MVFR and VFR at times. Lwr
cigs/visibilities can be expected in areas of direct convection.
forecast soundings suggest IFR cigs at KCNM/KHOB after 00Z, and
MVFR at KMAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Wind flow around the upper ridge extending from Mexico up across the
Rockies will continue to pull tropical moisture from Odile across the
region.  What is left of the circulation of Odile will be pulled
east while a cut off low works down the CA coast.

Had some storms overnight across the Central Permian Basin with
radar estimating over 2 inches of rainfall with the heavier
storms... but most of these have dissipated.  Heavy rain north of
ELP has drifted into the western zones as of 09z.  Currently have
Flash Flood Warnings in effect for Eddy and Culberson counties.  The
airmass is very moist... MAF 00z sounding had a PW near 1.5 inches
and model soundings push this over 1.8 inches today... so potential
exists for heavy rainfall.  Have upped pops over Eddy and Lea county
today to 70 percent but have also stretched likely pops all the way
across the Northern Permian Basin to Snyder.  In addition to rain
moving in from the west... models are developing a large area of
rain along what looks like a boundary that extends from the Gulf
coast to the South Plains and crosses the NE Permian Basin.  Have
extended the FF Watch another 24 hrs through tonight and added
Reeves... Loving... Andrews... and Gaines to it.  Depending how
storms develop today later shifts may need to add the Davis Mtn or
Dawson county to the watch.

Temperatures today will be a challenge and highly dependent on
exactly where rain forms.  The last couple of days the sun has been
able to break out during the late afternoon and push temps up to
normal or above.  It could happen again today so have increased highs
today... but kept highs in the 70s over NM where rain should be
heavier/more frequent.

Still looking at a front making into the region Sunday.  Fropa does
not look to be strong... instead it just bridges down into the area
as the surface ridge builds south.  Not expecting that much cooling
with it.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 181039
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
539 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile opening up and set to move
over West Texas/SE NM in SW flow aloft later today. TAFs will be
messy, but most terminals should stay VFR through 00Z Friday except
KCNM, which should vary between MVFR and VFR at times. Lwr
cigs/visibilities can be expected in areas of direct convection.
forecast soundings suggest IFR cigs at KCNM/KHOB after 00Z, and
MVFR at KMAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Wind flow around the upper ridge extending from Mexico up across the
Rockies will continue to pull tropical moisture from Odile across the
region.  What is left of the circulation of Odile will be pulled
east while a cut off low works down the CA coast.

Had some storms overnight across the Central Permian Basin with
radar estimating over 2 inches of rainfall with the heavier
storms... but most of these have dissipated.  Heavy rain north of
ELP has drifted into the western zones as of 09z.  Currently have
Flash Flood Warnings in effect for Eddy and Culberson counties.  The
airmass is very moist... MAF 00z sounding had a PW near 1.5 inches
and model soundings push this over 1.8 inches today... so potential
exists for heavy rainfall.  Have upped pops over Eddy and Lea county
today to 70 percent but have also stretched likely pops all the way
across the Northern Permian Basin to Snyder.  In addition to rain
moving in from the west... models are developing a large area of
rain along what looks like a boundary that extends from the Gulf
coast to the South Plains and crosses the NE Permian Basin.  Have
extended the FF Watch another 24 hrs through tonight and added
Reeves... Loving... Andrews... and Gaines to it.  Depending how
storms develop today later shifts may need to add the Davis Mtn or
Dawson county to the watch.

Temperatures today will be a challenge and highly dependent on
exactly where rain forms.  The last couple of days the sun has been
able to break out during the late afternoon and push temps up to
normal or above.  It could happen again today so have increased highs
today... but kept highs in the 70s over NM where rain should be
heavier/more frequent.

Still looking at a front making into the region Sunday.  Fropa does
not look to be strong... instead it just bridges down into the area
as the surface ridge builds south.  Not expecting that much cooling
with it.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 180908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Wind flow around the upper ridge extending from Mexico up across the
Rockies will continue to pull tropical moisture from Odile across the
region.  What is left of the circulation of Odile will be pulled
east while a cut off low works down the CA coast.

Had some storms overnight across the Central Permian Basin with
radar estimating over 2 inches of rainfall with the heavier
storms... but most of these have dissipated.  Heavy rain north of
ELP has drifted into the western zones as of 09z.  Currently have
Flash Flood Warnings in effect for Eddy and Culberson counties.  The
airmass is very moist... MAF 00z sounding had a PW near 1.5 inches
and model soundings push this over 1.8 inches today... so potential
exists for heavy rainfall.  Have upped pops over Eddy and Lea county
today to 70 percent but have also stretched likely pops all the way
across the Northern Permian Basin to Snyder.  In addition to rain
moving in from the west... models are developing a large area of
rain along what looks like a boundary that extends from the Gulf
coast to the South Plains and crosses the NE Permian Basin.  Have
extended the FF Watch another 24 hrs through tonight and added
Reeves... Loving... Andrews... and Gaines to it.  Depending how
storms develop today later shifts may need to add the Davis Mtn or
Dawson county to the watch.

Temperatures today will be a challenge and highly dependent on
exactly where rain forms.  The last couple of days the sun has been
able to break out during the late afternoon and push temps up to
normal or above.  It could happen again today so have increased highs
today... but kept highs in the 70s over NM where rain should be
heavier/more frequent.

Still looking at a front making into the region Sunday.  Fropa does
not look to be strong... instead it just bridges down into the area
as the surface ridge builds south.  Not expecting that much cooling
with it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  81  68  /  70  40  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  68  84  70  /  60  30  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                79  68  84  67  /  70  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  91  73  91  73  /  40  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  69  86  69  /  50  40  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  63  78  64  /  70  60  40  30
HOBBS NM                   78  65  79  65  /  70  60  60  40
MARFA TX                   80  62  81  61  /  50  50  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  69  83  70  /  70  40  40  30
ODESSA TX                  83  69  82  70  /  70  40  40  30
WINK TX                    84  69  86  70  /  70  50  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 180908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
408 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Wind flow around the upper ridge extending from Mexico up across the
Rockies will continue to pull tropical moisture from Odile across the
region.  What is left of the circulation of Odile will be pulled
east while a cut off low works down the CA coast.

Had some storms overnight across the Central Permian Basin with
radar estimating over 2 inches of rainfall with the heavier
storms... but most of these have dissipated.  Heavy rain north of
ELP has drifted into the western zones as of 09z.  Currently have
Flash Flood Warnings in effect for Eddy and Culberson counties.  The
airmass is very moist... MAF 00z sounding had a PW near 1.5 inches
and model soundings push this over 1.8 inches today... so potential
exists for heavy rainfall.  Have upped pops over Eddy and Lea county
today to 70 percent but have also stretched likely pops all the way
across the Northern Permian Basin to Snyder.  In addition to rain
moving in from the west... models are developing a large area of
rain along what looks like a boundary that extends from the Gulf
coast to the South Plains and crosses the NE Permian Basin.  Have
extended the FF Watch another 24 hrs through tonight and added
Reeves... Loving... Andrews... and Gaines to it.  Depending how
storms develop today later shifts may need to add the Davis Mtn or
Dawson county to the watch.

Temperatures today will be a challenge and highly dependent on
exactly where rain forms.  The last couple of days the sun has been
able to break out during the late afternoon and push temps up to
normal or above.  It could happen again today so have increased highs
today... but kept highs in the 70s over NM where rain should be
heavier/more frequent.

Still looking at a front making into the region Sunday.  Fropa does
not look to be strong... instead it just bridges down into the area
as the surface ridge builds south.  Not expecting that much cooling
with it.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  81  68  /  70  40  50  40
BIG SPRING TX              83  68  84  70  /  60  30  50  40
CARLSBAD NM                79  68  84  67  /  70  60  50  30
DRYDEN TX                  91  73  91  73  /  40  20  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  69  86  69  /  50  40  40  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  63  78  64  /  70  60  40  30
HOBBS NM                   78  65  79  65  /  70  60  60  40
MARFA TX                   80  62  81  61  /  50  50  40  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    84  69  83  70  /  70  40  40  30
ODESSA TX                  83  69  82  70  /  70  40  40  30
WINK TX                    84  69  86  70  /  70  50  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Friday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Andrews...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 180533
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR cigs are forecast to develop KHOB/KINK/KMAF overnight, but
scatter out to VFR after sunrise. Have inserted a mention of
convection for KMAF to cover the next few hours. Otherwise, OVC
VFR cigs should prevail next 18 hours, w/cigs deteriorating after
00Z Friday. Expect MVFR cigs KCNM/KMAF, and IFR KHOB near the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
There is scattered convection from the Davis Mountains to the
Permian Basin though lightning has been somewhat infrequent.
Therefore have limited TS to only the NM TAF sites for now and AMD
if needed. MVFR CIGs are forecast to arrive near 12Z and last for
about 6 hours but there is some uncertainty as to whether or not
they will actually materialize, and if so at what level.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast continues to be the increasing
potential for flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and portions
of west Texas for the next couple days. Rain chances still look good
through at least Friday as TS Odile continues to provide ample
moisture to the region. PW will remain around 1.7 inches (150% of
normal for September) and moderate to heavy rainfall will remain a
concern. A Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Lea Co and
now covers all of SE New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn
and the hwy 54 corridor through 12Z Thursday morning.

TS Odile is currently nearing SE Arizona/SW New Mexico this
afternoon and will continue to trek to the NE in SW flow aloft.
Upper ridge centered over south TX is stronger over our area than
previously anticipated and its keeping main upper level disturbances
from Odile just north of the CWA today. Given the available moisture
this afternoon, it didn`t take much heating for a cu field to
develop across the area with a few light echoes on radar at 20Z
over the Permian Basin. A weak eastward-moving disturbance is now
entering western portions of the region and we are beginning to
see activity developing over the higher terrain. Expecting this
activity to expand into SE NM and the Trans Pecos regions through
the evening hours and possibly overnight. Rain could be moderate
to heavy at times, especially across areas covered by the current
Flash Flood Watch.

Odile will slowly make her way into west/central NM by Thursday
morning, breaking down the UA ridge to the south. This will allow
disturbances to move from W-E across northern portions of the
region, increasing rain chances across SE NM, Permian Basin, upper
Trans Pecos and higher terrain regions through Thursday afternoon.
The remnants of Odile are then forecast to move just NW of the FA
Thursday night/Friday, continuing the heavy rain potential across
mainly the northern half of the CWA through Friday. WPC still
showing higher QPF over Southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos, western
Permian Basin and higher terrain regions through Friday. This seems
more than reasonable so will continue to highlight heavy rain
potential across these areas. Also, the Flash Flood Watch may need
to be expanded and/or extended by later shifts if the forecast holds
strong through tonight.

Below normal high temperatures expected through Friday, particularly
across northern zones where clouds and rain will keep temps cooler.
Overnight low temps will remain well above normal due to the
abundance of moisture expected to persist across the region. Temps
will warm above normal briefly Saturday before a cold front arrives
Sunday, knocking temps back down heading into next week. The front
looks to enter northern zones sometime Sunday morning, moving south
throughout the day. Models generate convection along the front as
it moves through but still unsure of exact timing. Rain chances
could continue into Monday if the front hangs around. Beyond
Monday, NW flow aloft looks to develop which would continue rain
chances as shortwaves move SE across the area. For now, will keep
silent PoPs in the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 180533
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 AM CDT Thu Sep 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR cigs are forecast to develop KHOB/KINK/KMAF overnight, but
scatter out to VFR after sunrise. Have inserted a mention of
convection for KMAF to cover the next few hours. Otherwise, OVC
VFR cigs should prevail next 18 hours, w/cigs deteriorating after
00Z Friday. Expect MVFR cigs KCNM/KMAF, and IFR KHOB near the end
of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
There is scattered convection from the Davis Mountains to the
Permian Basin though lightning has been somewhat infrequent.
Therefore have limited TS to only the NM TAF sites for now and AMD
if needed. MVFR CIGs are forecast to arrive near 12Z and last for
about 6 hours but there is some uncertainty as to whether or not
they will actually materialize, and if so at what level.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast continues to be the increasing
potential for flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and portions
of west Texas for the next couple days. Rain chances still look good
through at least Friday as TS Odile continues to provide ample
moisture to the region. PW will remain around 1.7 inches (150% of
normal for September) and moderate to heavy rainfall will remain a
concern. A Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Lea Co and
now covers all of SE New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn
and the hwy 54 corridor through 12Z Thursday morning.

TS Odile is currently nearing SE Arizona/SW New Mexico this
afternoon and will continue to trek to the NE in SW flow aloft.
Upper ridge centered over south TX is stronger over our area than
previously anticipated and its keeping main upper level disturbances
from Odile just north of the CWA today. Given the available moisture
this afternoon, it didn`t take much heating for a cu field to
develop across the area with a few light echoes on radar at 20Z
over the Permian Basin. A weak eastward-moving disturbance is now
entering western portions of the region and we are beginning to
see activity developing over the higher terrain. Expecting this
activity to expand into SE NM and the Trans Pecos regions through
the evening hours and possibly overnight. Rain could be moderate
to heavy at times, especially across areas covered by the current
Flash Flood Watch.

Odile will slowly make her way into west/central NM by Thursday
morning, breaking down the UA ridge to the south. This will allow
disturbances to move from W-E across northern portions of the
region, increasing rain chances across SE NM, Permian Basin, upper
Trans Pecos and higher terrain regions through Thursday afternoon.
The remnants of Odile are then forecast to move just NW of the FA
Thursday night/Friday, continuing the heavy rain potential across
mainly the northern half of the CWA through Friday. WPC still
showing higher QPF over Southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos, western
Permian Basin and higher terrain regions through Friday. This seems
more than reasonable so will continue to highlight heavy rain
potential across these areas. Also, the Flash Flood Watch may need
to be expanded and/or extended by later shifts if the forecast holds
strong through tonight.

Below normal high temperatures expected through Friday, particularly
across northern zones where clouds and rain will keep temps cooler.
Overnight low temps will remain well above normal due to the
abundance of moisture expected to persist across the region. Temps
will warm above normal briefly Saturday before a cold front arrives
Sunday, knocking temps back down heading into next week. The front
looks to enter northern zones sometime Sunday morning, moving south
throughout the day. Models generate convection along the front as
it moves through but still unsure of exact timing. Rain chances
could continue into Monday if the front hangs around. Beyond
Monday, NW flow aloft looks to develop which would continue rain
chances as shortwaves move SE across the area. For now, will keep
silent PoPs in the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 6 AM MDT Thursday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH until 7 AM CDT /6 AM MDT/ this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor.


&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 172310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
There is scattered convection from the Davis Mountains to the
Permian Basin though lightning has been somewhat infrequent.
Therefore have limited TS to only the NM TAF sites for now and AMD
if needed. MVFR CIGs are forecast to arrive near 12Z and last for
about 6 hours but there is some uncertainty as to whether or not
they will actually materialize, and if so at what level.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast continues to be the increasing
potential for flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and portions
of west Texas for the next couple days. Rain chances still look good
through at least Friday as TS Odile continues to provide ample
moisture to the region. PW will remain around 1.7 inches (150% of
normal for September) and moderate to heavy rainfall will remain a
concern. A Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Lea Co and
now covers all of SE New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn
and the hwy 54 corridor through 12Z Thursday morning.

TS Odile is currently nearing SE Arizona/SW New Mexico this
afternoon and will continue to trek to the NE in SW flow aloft.
Upper ridge centered over south TX is stronger over our area than
previously anticipated and its keeping main upper level disturbances
from Odile just north of the CWA today. Given the available moisture
this afternoon, it didn`t take much heating for a cu field to
develop across the area with a few light echoes on radar at 20Z
over the Permian Basin. A weak eastward-moving disturbance is now
entering western portions of the region and we are beginning to
see activity developing over the higher terrain. Expecting this
activity to expand into SE NM and the Trans Pecos regions through
the evening hours and possibly overnight. Rain could be moderate
to heavy at times, especially across areas covered by the current
Flash Flood Watch.

Odile will slowly make her way into west/central NM by Thursday
morning, breaking down the UA ridge to the south. This will allow
disturbances to move from W-E across northern portions of the
region, increasing rain chances across SE NM, Permian Basin, upper
Trans Pecos and higher terrain regions through Thursday afternoon.
The remnants of Odile are then forecast to move just NW of the FA
Thursday night/Friday, continuing the heavy rain potential across
mainly the northern half of the CWA through Friday. WPC still
showing higher QPF over Southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos, western
Permian Basin and higher terrain regions through Friday. This seems
more than reasonable so will continue to highlight heavy rain
potential across these areas. Also, the Flash Flood Watch may need
to be expanded and/or extended by later shifts if the forecast holds
strong through tonight.

Below normal high temperatures expected through Friday, particularly
across northern zones where clouds and rain will keep temps cooler.
Overnight low temps will remain well above normal due to the
abundance of moisture expected to persist across the region. Temps
will warm above normal briefly Saturday before a cold front arrives
Sunday, knocking temps back down heading into next week. The front
looks to enter northern zones sometime Sunday morning, moving south
throughout the day. Models generate convection along the front as
it moves through but still unsure of exact timing. Rain chances
could continue into Monday if the front hangs around. Beyond
Monday, NW flow aloft looks to develop which would continue rain
chances as shortwaves move SE across the area. For now, will keep
silent PoPs in the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 172310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
There is scattered convection from the Davis Mountains to the
Permian Basin though lightning has been somewhat infrequent.
Therefore have limited TS to only the NM TAF sites for now and AMD
if needed. MVFR CIGs are forecast to arrive near 12Z and last for
about 6 hours but there is some uncertainty as to whether or not
they will actually materialize, and if so at what level.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast continues to be the increasing
potential for flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and portions
of west Texas for the next couple days. Rain chances still look good
through at least Friday as TS Odile continues to provide ample
moisture to the region. PW will remain around 1.7 inches (150% of
normal for September) and moderate to heavy rainfall will remain a
concern. A Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Lea Co and
now covers all of SE New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn
and the hwy 54 corridor through 12Z Thursday morning.

TS Odile is currently nearing SE Arizona/SW New Mexico this
afternoon and will continue to trek to the NE in SW flow aloft.
Upper ridge centered over south TX is stronger over our area than
previously anticipated and its keeping main upper level disturbances
from Odile just north of the CWA today. Given the available moisture
this afternoon, it didn`t take much heating for a cu field to
develop across the area with a few light echoes on radar at 20Z
over the Permian Basin. A weak eastward-moving disturbance is now
entering western portions of the region and we are beginning to
see activity developing over the higher terrain. Expecting this
activity to expand into SE NM and the Trans Pecos regions through
the evening hours and possibly overnight. Rain could be moderate
to heavy at times, especially across areas covered by the current
Flash Flood Watch.

Odile will slowly make her way into west/central NM by Thursday
morning, breaking down the UA ridge to the south. This will allow
disturbances to move from W-E across northern portions of the
region, increasing rain chances across SE NM, Permian Basin, upper
Trans Pecos and higher terrain regions through Thursday afternoon.
The remnants of Odile are then forecast to move just NW of the FA
Thursday night/Friday, continuing the heavy rain potential across
mainly the northern half of the CWA through Friday. WPC still
showing higher QPF over Southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos, western
Permian Basin and higher terrain regions through Friday. This seems
more than reasonable so will continue to highlight heavy rain
potential across these areas. Also, the Flash Flood Watch may need
to be expanded and/or extended by later shifts if the forecast holds
strong through tonight.

Below normal high temperatures expected through Friday, particularly
across northern zones where clouds and rain will keep temps cooler.
Overnight low temps will remain well above normal due to the
abundance of moisture expected to persist across the region. Temps
will warm above normal briefly Saturday before a cold front arrives
Sunday, knocking temps back down heading into next week. The front
looks to enter northern zones sometime Sunday morning, moving south
throughout the day. Models generate convection along the front as
it moves through but still unsure of exact timing. Rain chances
could continue into Monday if the front hangs around. Beyond
Monday, NW flow aloft looks to develop which would continue rain
chances as shortwaves move SE across the area. For now, will keep
silent PoPs in the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 172003
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
303 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast continues to be the increasing
potential for flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and portions
of west Texas for the next couple days. Rain chances still look good
through at least Friday as TS Odile continues to provide ample
moisture to the region. PW will remain around 1.7 inches (150% of
normal for September) and moderate to heavy rainfall will remain a
concern. A Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Lea Co and
now covers all of SE New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn
and the hwy 54 corridor through 12Z Thursday morning.

TS Odile is currently nearing SE Arizona/SW New Mexico this
afternoon and will continue to trek to the NE in SW flow aloft.
Upper ridge centered over south TX is stronger over our area than
previously anticipated and its keeping main upper level disturbances
from Odile just north of the CWA today. Given the available moisture
this afternoon, it didn`t take much heating for a cu field to
develop across the area with a few light echoes on radar at 20Z
over the Permian Basin. A weak eastward-moving disturbance is now
entering western portions of the region and we are beginning to
see activity developing over the higher terrain. Expecting this
activity to expand into SE NM and the Trans Pecos regions through
the evening hours and possibly overnight. Rain could be moderate
to heavy at times, especially across areas covered by the current
Flash Flood Watch.

Odile will slowly make her way into west/central NM by Thursday
morning, breaking down the UA ridge to the south. This will allow
disturbances to move from W-E across northern portions of the
region, increasing rain chances across SE NM, Permian Basin, upper
Trans Pecos and higher terrain regions through Thursday afternoon.
The remnants of Odile are then forecast to move just NW of the FA
Thursday night/Friday, continuing the heavy rain potential across
mainly the northern half of the CWA through Friday. WPC still
showing higher QPF over Southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos, western
Permian Basin and higher terrain regions through Friday. This seems
more than reasonable so will continue to highlight heavy rain
potential across these areas. Also, the Flash Flood Watch may need
to be expanded and/or extended by later shifts if the forecast holds
strong through tonight.

Below normal high temperatures expected through Friday, particularly
across northern zones where clouds and rain will keep temps cooler.
Overnight low temps will remain well above normal due to the
abundance of moisture expected to persist across the region. Temps
will warm above normal briefly Saturday before a cold front arrives
Sunday, knocking temps back down heading into next week. The front
looks to enter northern zones sometime Sunday morning, moving south
throughout the day. Models generate convection along the front as
it moves through but still unsure of exact timing. Rain chances
could continue into Monday if the front hangs around. Beyond
Monday, NW flow aloft looks to develop which would continue rain
chances as shortwaves move SE across the area. For now, will keep
silent PoPs in the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  78  68  81  /  50  70  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              70  80  69  84  /  50  60  40  50
CARLSBAD NM                68  76  68  83  /  60  70  60  50
DRYDEN TX                  73  91  74  91  /  20  40  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  83  71  86  /  50  50  30  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  74  63  78  /  60  60  60  40
HOBBS NM                   65  74  65  78  /  60  60  50  60
MARFA TX                   61  79  62  81  /  40  60  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  80  69  83  /  50  60  40  40
ODESSA TX                  69  79  69  82  /  50  60  40  40
WINK TX                    69  82  70  86  /  50  60  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

49/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 172003
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
303 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast continues to be the increasing
potential for flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and portions
of west Texas for the next couple days. Rain chances still look good
through at least Friday as TS Odile continues to provide ample
moisture to the region. PW will remain around 1.7 inches (150% of
normal for September) and moderate to heavy rainfall will remain a
concern. A Flash Flood Watch has been expanded to include Lea Co and
now covers all of SE New Mexico, Guadalupe Mountains and Van Horn
and the hwy 54 corridor through 12Z Thursday morning.

TS Odile is currently nearing SE Arizona/SW New Mexico this
afternoon and will continue to trek to the NE in SW flow aloft.
Upper ridge centered over south TX is stronger over our area than
previously anticipated and its keeping main upper level disturbances
from Odile just north of the CWA today. Given the available moisture
this afternoon, it didn`t take much heating for a cu field to
develop across the area with a few light echoes on radar at 20Z
over the Permian Basin. A weak eastward-moving disturbance is now
entering western portions of the region and we are beginning to
see activity developing over the higher terrain. Expecting this
activity to expand into SE NM and the Trans Pecos regions through
the evening hours and possibly overnight. Rain could be moderate
to heavy at times, especially across areas covered by the current
Flash Flood Watch.

Odile will slowly make her way into west/central NM by Thursday
morning, breaking down the UA ridge to the south. This will allow
disturbances to move from W-E across northern portions of the
region, increasing rain chances across SE NM, Permian Basin, upper
Trans Pecos and higher terrain regions through Thursday afternoon.
The remnants of Odile are then forecast to move just NW of the FA
Thursday night/Friday, continuing the heavy rain potential across
mainly the northern half of the CWA through Friday. WPC still
showing higher QPF over Southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos, western
Permian Basin and higher terrain regions through Friday. This seems
more than reasonable so will continue to highlight heavy rain
potential across these areas. Also, the Flash Flood Watch may need
to be expanded and/or extended by later shifts if the forecast holds
strong through tonight.

Below normal high temperatures expected through Friday, particularly
across northern zones where clouds and rain will keep temps cooler.
Overnight low temps will remain well above normal due to the
abundance of moisture expected to persist across the region. Temps
will warm above normal briefly Saturday before a cold front arrives
Sunday, knocking temps back down heading into next week. The front
looks to enter northern zones sometime Sunday morning, moving south
throughout the day. Models generate convection along the front as
it moves through but still unsure of exact timing. Rain chances
could continue into Monday if the front hangs around. Beyond
Monday, NW flow aloft looks to develop which would continue rain
chances as shortwaves move SE across the area. For now, will keep
silent PoPs in the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 68  78  68  81  /  50  70  40  50
BIG SPRING TX              70  80  69  84  /  50  60  40  50
CARLSBAD NM                68  76  68  83  /  60  70  60  50
DRYDEN TX                  73  91  74  91  /  20  40  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           69  83  71  86  /  50  50  30  40
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  74  63  78  /  60  60  60  40
HOBBS NM                   65  74  65  78  /  60  60  50  60
MARFA TX                   61  79  62  81  /  40  60  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  80  69  83  /  50  60  40  40
ODESSA TX                  69  79  69  82  /  50  60  40  40
WINK TX                    69  82  70  86  /  50  60  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe
     Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...Southern
     Lea County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

49/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171727
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concern around this forecast is potential for TSRA. Visible
satellite shows less clouds today than previou several days and
LI/s show there is surface based destablization ongoing. Surface
boundaries are lacking so initially higher terrain w of TAF sites
is favored for initiation which may then move into/near CNM
first. Overnight good agreement that storms may impact INK/HOB/PEQ
TAFS. Have opted to include TEMPO TSRA CNM/HOB and PROB30
elsewhere, except FST, at 04Z. MVFR CIGS/vsby with TSRA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171727
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1227 PM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concern around this forecast is potential for TSRA. Visible
satellite shows less clouds today than previou several days and
LI/s show there is surface based destablization ongoing. Surface
boundaries are lacking so initially higher terrain w of TAF sites
is favored for initiation which may then move into/near CNM
first. Overnight good agreement that storms may impact INK/HOB/PEQ
TAFS. Have opted to include TEMPO TSRA CNM/HOB and PROB30
elsewhere, except FST, at 04Z. MVFR CIGS/vsby with TSRA.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171148
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
648 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Low clouds have been slow to develop so have raised forecasted cigs.
Some fog possible.  Expect mainly VFR conditions with limited MVFR
cigs and vsbys.  Best chance of heavy showers at CNM and HOB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, a little further north than anticipated 24 hours ago.  To
the SW, WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile over the northern
Gulf of California, and will continue to be the source region for
heavy rainfall potential for the next few days.  00Z KMAF RAOB
remained saturated w/a PWAT of 1.65", about 2 STD DEVs/150% above
normal for September.  Throw in a KI of 39 and anemic storm motion,
and flash flooding will continue to be the main concern for the near
term.  Models drift the remnants of Odile over wrn Sonora and into e
central AZ over the next few days, sending disturbances up and over
the upper ridge to the south and into SE NM/West Texas.  NM/far
West Texas continues to be the favored area for this activity, and
we`ve gone ahead and issued a FFA thru tonight for Eddy and
Culberson Counties.  Probably could have included adjacent zones,
but will let the next shift decide.  Odile is forecast to open and
get picked up in SW flow aloft, and will pass thru the region
Thursday night.  This may necessitate extending the FFA temporally as
well.

Once Odile passes, upper lvl ridging begins building back in over
the area, w/temps peaking at around a cat abv normal Saturday before
a cold front moves thru the region Saturday night.  Models do not
define the discontinuity w/this front quite as sharp as 24 hours
ago, w/the main push of cold air arriving Sunday afternoon.  Thus,
temps shouldn`t come back down to normal (or below) until
Monday.

For temps, we`ll continue w/narrower diurnal spreads than what MOS
is showing, and H85 temps trends/forecast soundings suggest leaning
towards the warmer GFS.

Only other concern is the Rio Grande, where elevated flows are
already occurring due to reservoir releases on the Rio Conchos.
Stay tuned.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 171148
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
648 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Low clouds have been slow to develop so have raised forecasted cigs.
Some fog possible.  Expect mainly VFR conditions with limited MVFR
cigs and vsbys.  Best chance of heavy showers at CNM and HOB.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 433 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, a little further north than anticipated 24 hours ago.  To
the SW, WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile over the northern
Gulf of California, and will continue to be the source region for
heavy rainfall potential for the next few days.  00Z KMAF RAOB
remained saturated w/a PWAT of 1.65", about 2 STD DEVs/150% above
normal for September.  Throw in a KI of 39 and anemic storm motion,
and flash flooding will continue to be the main concern for the near
term.  Models drift the remnants of Odile over wrn Sonora and into e
central AZ over the next few days, sending disturbances up and over
the upper ridge to the south and into SE NM/West Texas.  NM/far
West Texas continues to be the favored area for this activity, and
we`ve gone ahead and issued a FFA thru tonight for Eddy and
Culberson Counties.  Probably could have included adjacent zones,
but will let the next shift decide.  Odile is forecast to open and
get picked up in SW flow aloft, and will pass thru the region
Thursday night.  This may necessitate extending the FFA temporally as
well.

Once Odile passes, upper lvl ridging begins building back in over
the area, w/temps peaking at around a cat abv normal Saturday before
a cold front moves thru the region Saturday night.  Models do not
define the discontinuity w/this front quite as sharp as 24 hours
ago, w/the main push of cold air arriving Sunday afternoon.  Thus,
temps shouldn`t come back down to normal (or below) until
Monday.

For temps, we`ll continue w/narrower diurnal spreads than what MOS
is showing, and H85 temps trends/forecast soundings suggest leaning
towards the warmer GFS.

Only other concern is the Rio Grande, where elevated flows are
already occurring due to reservoir releases on the Rio Conchos.
Stay tuned.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170933
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
433 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, a little further north than anticipated 24 hours ago.  To
the SW, WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile over the northern
Gulf of California, and will continue to be the source region for
heavy rainfall potential for the next few days.  00Z KMAF RAOB
remained saturated w/a PWAT of 1.65", about 2 STD DEVs/150% above
normal for September.  Throw in a KI of 39 and anemic storm motion,
and flash flooding will continue to be the main concern for the near
term.  Models drift the remnants of Odile over wrn Sonora and into e
central AZ over the next few days, sending disturbances up and over
the upper ridge to the south and into SE NM/West Texas.  NM/far
West Texas continues to be the favored area for this activity, and
we`ve gone ahead and issued a FFA thru tonight for Eddy and
Culberson Counties.  Probably could have included adjacent zones,
but will let the next shift decide.  Odile is forecast to open and
get picked up in SW flow aloft, and will pass thru the region
Thursday night.  This may necessitate extending the FFA temporally as
well.

Once Odile passes, upper lvl ridging begins building back in over
the area, w/temps peaking at around a cat abv normal Saturday before
a cold front moves thru the region Saturday night.  Models do not
define the discontinuity w/this front quite as sharp as 24 hours
ago, w/the main push of cold air arriving Sunday afternoon.  Thus,
temps shouldn`t come back down to normal (or below) until
Monday.

For temps, we`ll continue w/narrower diurnal spreads than what MOS
is showing, and H85 temps trends/forecast soundings suggest leaning
towards the warmer GFS.

Only other concern is the Rio Grande, where elevated flows are
already occurring due to reservoir releases on the Rio Conchos.
Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  79  66  /  40  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              86  68  81  67  /  40  20  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                84  67  78  66  /  60  60  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  88  72  87  71  /  20  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  70  87  70  /  30  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  64  74  64  /  60  60  30  40
HOBBS NM                   79  64  74  64  /  50  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   83  61  79  60  /  20  20  50  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  67  81  67  /  40  20  30  20
ODESSA TX                  86  67  80  67  /  40  20  30  20
WINK TX                    88  67  86  67  /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

72/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170933
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
433 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Area radars show -SHRA drifting W-E across West Texas/SE NM this
morning, a little further north than anticipated 24 hours ago.  To
the SW, WV imagery shows remnants of T.S. Odile over the northern
Gulf of California, and will continue to be the source region for
heavy rainfall potential for the next few days.  00Z KMAF RAOB
remained saturated w/a PWAT of 1.65", about 2 STD DEVs/150% above
normal for September.  Throw in a KI of 39 and anemic storm motion,
and flash flooding will continue to be the main concern for the near
term.  Models drift the remnants of Odile over wrn Sonora and into e
central AZ over the next few days, sending disturbances up and over
the upper ridge to the south and into SE NM/West Texas.  NM/far
West Texas continues to be the favored area for this activity, and
we`ve gone ahead and issued a FFA thru tonight for Eddy and
Culberson Counties.  Probably could have included adjacent zones,
but will let the next shift decide.  Odile is forecast to open and
get picked up in SW flow aloft, and will pass thru the region
Thursday night.  This may necessitate extending the FFA temporally as
well.

Once Odile passes, upper lvl ridging begins building back in over
the area, w/temps peaking at around a cat abv normal Saturday before
a cold front moves thru the region Saturday night.  Models do not
define the discontinuity w/this front quite as sharp as 24 hours
ago, w/the main push of cold air arriving Sunday afternoon.  Thus,
temps shouldn`t come back down to normal (or below) until
Monday.

For temps, we`ll continue w/narrower diurnal spreads than what MOS
is showing, and H85 temps trends/forecast soundings suggest leaning
towards the warmer GFS.

Only other concern is the Rio Grande, where elevated flows are
already occurring due to reservoir releases on the Rio Conchos.
Stay tuned.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 81  68  79  66  /  40  20  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              86  68  81  67  /  40  20  40  20
CARLSBAD NM                84  67  78  66  /  60  60  30  40
DRYDEN TX                  88  72  87  71  /  20  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           88  70  87  70  /  30  20  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          76  64  74  64  /  60  60  30  40
HOBBS NM                   79  64  74  64  /  50  30  30  20
MARFA TX                   83  61  79  60  /  20  20  50  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  67  81  67  /  40  20  30  20
ODESSA TX                  86  67  80  67  /  40  20  30  20
WINK TX                    88  67  86  67  /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through late tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
      Eddy County Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH through Thursday morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor.


&&

$$

72/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect falling ceilings overnight with cigs becoming MVFR with some
IFR possible by 12z. Best shower/storm chances today will be at
CNM and HOB... and to a lesser extend INK and PEQ.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 170535
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1235 AM CDT Wed Sep 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Expect falling ceilings overnight with cigs becoming MVFR with some
IFR possible by 12z. Best shower/storm chances today will be at
CNM and HOB... and to a lesser extend INK and PEQ.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The main focus for this forecast package is the increasing
potential of flash flooding over southeast New Mexico and
portions of west Texas through the end of the week. Rain chances
looking really good for the next several days as TS Odile,
currently moving north into the Desert SW, continues to provide
ample moisture eastward into the region.

Although the remnants of Odile will remain to the west of the CWA, a
series of upper level disturbances will break off and move east
over northern portions of the FA the next couple days. This will
provide enough upper forcing to help generate precipitation across
most areas (particularly the northwest) through at least
Thursday, especially given the available moisture across these
areas. The remnants of Odile is forecast to move NNE through
central NM Friday, continuing rain chances into Friday as well.
Well above normal PW (near 1.7 inches) look to persist across most
locations through Friday and heavy rainfall will definitely be a
concern at times. Difficult to discern specific times when the
rain will be heaviest so went ahead and mentioned heavy rain
potential where PoPs are highest tonight-Thurs. May also need to
mention heavy rain possible for Friday as well but will only
mention moderate rainfall for now. Currently think the favored
regions to receive the most rainfall over the next few days is
southeast NM, upper Trans Pecos and Guadalupe Mountains. Many of
these locations received heavy rainfall last week so any additional
rainfall will increase flash flooding potential. A Flash Flood
Watch will not be issued at this time but may be need to be in the
next 12 to 24 hours for these areas.

With nearly continuous moisture through the week, clouds look to
stick around and keep high temperatures below normal during this
time. On the other hand, the increased moisture and clouds will do
the opposite for lows, holding them above normal for this time of
year. Therefore, expect highs mainly in the upper 70s to mid 80s and
lows in the mid to upper 60s.

The 12Z GFS and Canadian models bring a cold front into the region
Sunday with the ECMWF following suit much later and showing a much
weaker front. Precip is expected to develop across the region as the
front moves through but with the models not in agreement with the
arrival time, not confident when and where to place highest rain
chances. The 12Z Canadian and the previous run of the ECMWF had much
drier air coming in behind the front but the new 12Z run of the
ECMWF has now come more in line with the GFS, holding onto the
moisture and rain chances through the extended. Due to the
inconsistencies, will hold off on making any drastic changes to the
extended at this time and keep silent PoPs in days 7-8.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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