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000
FXUS64 KMAF 292301
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
mostly be light and variable tonight and will become south to southeasterly
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Mid-level cloudiness persists across the eastern half of the region
this afternoon and has resulted in a slow warm up so far today
across these areas. Currently seeing temperatures ranging from the
mid and upper 70s east to the mid and upper 80s west as of 2pm CDT.
This is a nice break from the 90s temps we`ve been seeing lately. A
weak MCV will continue to move east across the Permian Basin with
some lingering light showers persisting across eastern zones. This
activity is showing some signs of weakening and think it will
dissipate shortly. On the other hand, if these areas can get a
little more heating as clouds break up, showers could continue into
the evening hours. Otherwise, currently seeing some
heating/destabilization near the mountain region resulting in
rapidly popping cu seen on VIS satellite. Will carry mention
of thunderstorms across these areas through this evening as well.

Upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert SW today and looks to
remain there heading into the upcoming work week. Skies will begin
to clear tonight and temperatures will climb back into the 90s
most places Sunday. The warming trend will continue Monday with
above normal highs expected through the work week. Not seeing much
in the way of precip through mid/late week with no signs of any
surface features and continued subsidence thanks to the upper
ridge. Toward the end of the week, the upper ridge will slide east
and build NE through the Central/Southern Plains while a lee
surface trough extend south through western portions of the
region. Could see an uptick in rain chances, particularly for SE
NM and western portions of W TX being on the western periphery of
the upper ridge and invof the surface trough. Will continue to
carry some slight chance PoPs Thursday through next weekend across
these areas. Model guidance suggest a slight cooling of 850 mb
temps next weekend and may trend highs a degree or two cooler for
now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99





000
FXUS64 KMAF 292301
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
601 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
mostly be light and variable tonight and will become south to southeasterly
Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Mid-level cloudiness persists across the eastern half of the region
this afternoon and has resulted in a slow warm up so far today
across these areas. Currently seeing temperatures ranging from the
mid and upper 70s east to the mid and upper 80s west as of 2pm CDT.
This is a nice break from the 90s temps we`ve been seeing lately. A
weak MCV will continue to move east across the Permian Basin with
some lingering light showers persisting across eastern zones. This
activity is showing some signs of weakening and think it will
dissipate shortly. On the other hand, if these areas can get a
little more heating as clouds break up, showers could continue into
the evening hours. Otherwise, currently seeing some
heating/destabilization near the mountain region resulting in
rapidly popping cu seen on VIS satellite. Will carry mention
of thunderstorms across these areas through this evening as well.

Upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert SW today and looks to
remain there heading into the upcoming work week. Skies will begin
to clear tonight and temperatures will climb back into the 90s
most places Sunday. The warming trend will continue Monday with
above normal highs expected through the work week. Not seeing much
in the way of precip through mid/late week with no signs of any
surface features and continued subsidence thanks to the upper
ridge. Toward the end of the week, the upper ridge will slide east
and build NE through the Central/Southern Plains while a lee
surface trough extend south through western portions of the
region. Could see an uptick in rain chances, particularly for SE
NM and western portions of W TX being on the western periphery of
the upper ridge and invof the surface trough. Will continue to
carry some slight chance PoPs Thursday through next weekend across
these areas. Model guidance suggest a slight cooling of 850 mb
temps next weekend and may trend highs a degree or two cooler for
now.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99




000
FXUS64 KMAF 291949
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Mid-level cloudiness persists across the eastern half of the region
this afternoon and has resulted in a slow warm up so far today
across these areas. Currently seeing temperatures ranging from the
mid and upper 70s east to the mid and upper 80s west as of 2pm CDT.
This is a nice break from the 90s temps we`ve been seeing lately. A
weak MCV will continue to move east across the Permian Basin with
some lingering light showers persisting across eastern zones. This
activity is showing some signs of weakening and think it will
dissipate shortly. On the other hand, if these areas can get a
little more heating as clouds break up, showers could continue into
the evening hours. Otherwise, currently seeing some
heating/destabilization near the mountain region resulting in
rapidly popping cu seen on VIS satellite. Will carry mention
of thunderstorms across these areas through this evening as well.

Upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert SW today and looks to
remain there heading into the upcoming work week. Skies will begin
to clear tonight and temperatures will climb back into the 90s
most places Sunday. The warming trend will continue Monday with
above normal highs expected through the work week. Not seeing much
in the way of precip through mid/late week with no signs of any
surface features and continued subsidence thanks to the upper
ridge. Toward the end of the week, the upper ridge will slide east
and build NE through the Central/Southern Plains while a lee
surface trough extend south through western portions of the
region. Could see an uptick in rain chances, particularly for SE
NM and western portions of W TX being on the western periphery of
the upper ridge and invof the surface trough. Will continue to
carry some slight chance PoPs Thursday through next weekend across
these areas. Model guidance suggest a slight cooling of 850 mb
temps next weekend and may trend highs a degree or two cooler for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  66  93  67  96  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    66  93  65  97  /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      72  97  71  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               67  94  67  97  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  85  65  89  /  20   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                       63  92  63  93  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                       57  86  55  88  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        67  94  67  97  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      68  93  67  96  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        67  96  67  98  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27




000
FXUS64 KMAF 291949
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Mid-level cloudiness persists across the eastern half of the region
this afternoon and has resulted in a slow warm up so far today
across these areas. Currently seeing temperatures ranging from the
mid and upper 70s east to the mid and upper 80s west as of 2pm CDT.
This is a nice break from the 90s temps we`ve been seeing lately. A
weak MCV will continue to move east across the Permian Basin with
some lingering light showers persisting across eastern zones. This
activity is showing some signs of weakening and think it will
dissipate shortly. On the other hand, if these areas can get a
little more heating as clouds break up, showers could continue into
the evening hours. Otherwise, currently seeing some
heating/destabilization near the mountain region resulting in
rapidly popping cu seen on VIS satellite. Will carry mention
of thunderstorms across these areas through this evening as well.

Upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert SW today and looks to
remain there heading into the upcoming work week. Skies will begin
to clear tonight and temperatures will climb back into the 90s
most places Sunday. The warming trend will continue Monday with
above normal highs expected through the work week. Not seeing much
in the way of precip through mid/late week with no signs of any
surface features and continued subsidence thanks to the upper
ridge. Toward the end of the week, the upper ridge will slide east
and build NE through the Central/Southern Plains while a lee
surface trough extend south through western portions of the
region. Could see an uptick in rain chances, particularly for SE
NM and western portions of W TX being on the western periphery of
the upper ridge and invof the surface trough. Will continue to
carry some slight chance PoPs Thursday through next weekend across
these areas. Model guidance suggest a slight cooling of 850 mb
temps next weekend and may trend highs a degree or two cooler for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  66  93  67  96  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    66  93  65  97  /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      72  97  71  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               67  94  67  97  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  85  65  89  /  20   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                       63  92  63  93  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                       57  86  55  88  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        67  94  67  97  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      68  93  67  96  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        67  96  67  98  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27




000
FXUS64 KMAF 291949
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Mid-level cloudiness persists across the eastern half of the region
this afternoon and has resulted in a slow warm up so far today
across these areas. Currently seeing temperatures ranging from the
mid and upper 70s east to the mid and upper 80s west as of 2pm CDT.
This is a nice break from the 90s temps we`ve been seeing lately. A
weak MCV will continue to move east across the Permian Basin with
some lingering light showers persisting across eastern zones. This
activity is showing some signs of weakening and think it will
dissipate shortly. On the other hand, if these areas can get a
little more heating as clouds break up, showers could continue into
the evening hours. Otherwise, currently seeing some
heating/destabilization near the mountain region resulting in
rapidly popping cu seen on VIS satellite. Will carry mention
of thunderstorms across these areas through this evening as well.

Upper ridging remains anchored over the Desert SW today and looks to
remain there heading into the upcoming work week. Skies will begin
to clear tonight and temperatures will climb back into the 90s
most places Sunday. The warming trend will continue Monday with
above normal highs expected through the work week. Not seeing much
in the way of precip through mid/late week with no signs of any
surface features and continued subsidence thanks to the upper
ridge. Toward the end of the week, the upper ridge will slide east
and build NE through the Central/Southern Plains while a lee
surface trough extend south through western portions of the
region. Could see an uptick in rain chances, particularly for SE
NM and western portions of W TX being on the western periphery of
the upper ridge and invof the surface trough. Will continue to
carry some slight chance PoPs Thursday through next weekend across
these areas. Model guidance suggest a slight cooling of 850 mb
temps next weekend and may trend highs a degree or two cooler for
now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  66  93  67  96  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                    66  93  65  97  /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                      72  97  71  99  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               67  94  67  97  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  85  65  89  /  20   0   0  10
HOBBS NM                       63  92  63  93  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                       57  86  55  88  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        67  94  67  97  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                      68  93  67  96  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                        67  96  67  98  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/27





000
FXUS64 KMAF 291721
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR expected areawide through tonight.  Lingering showers from
last nights convection should be ending with a few afternoon
storms possible near KCNM.  A boundary moved through last night
with wind at some locations becoming northerly but this should
slowly veer around to the south by evening.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 291721
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1221 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR expected areawide through tonight.  Lingering showers from
last nights convection should be ending with a few afternoon
storms possible near KCNM.  A boundary moved through last night
with wind at some locations becoming northerly but this should
slowly veer around to the south by evening.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 291116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS have dissipated this morning and while more will develop this
afternoon, they should be west of the TAF sites and will not be
included with this issuance. VFR conditions and light southeast or
occasionally variable winds are expected the next 24 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Surface trough currently along a Snyder, Midland, Fort Stockton
line will weaken today but continue to generate the threat of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The best chance will be
northwest of the trough across the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast
New Mexico Plains and Upper Trans Pecos region of west Texas where
cooler air aloft, upslope flow and terrain effects will be maximized.
Thick cloud cover will keep high temperatures below guidance.
Activity should weaken rapidly this evening with loss of heating
and trough washing out.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
fairly quiet due to the forecast area residing underneath a
decent ridge and on the western subsident side of a weak western
moving upper level low pressure system in the Mississippi Valley
to the western Gulf Coast. The exception to the quiet will be in
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. In these areas very intense
heating along a persistent surface trough along the eastern slopes
of the mountains and upslope flow will keep the threat of mainly
diurnally driven thunderstorms in the forecast in these areas.

Beyond Wednesday through the end of next week intense heating and
upslope flow will keep the chance of thunderstorms continuing in
the mountains. The threat of thunderstorms will also extend
eastward to include the southeast New Mexico plains and Trans
Pecos due to an anticipated slight eastward shift in the position
of the surface trough.

High temperatures will be above normal next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KMAF 291116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS have dissipated this morning and while more will develop this
afternoon, they should be west of the TAF sites and will not be
included with this issuance. VFR conditions and light southeast or
occasionally variable winds are expected the next 24 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Surface trough currently along a Snyder, Midland, Fort Stockton
line will weaken today but continue to generate the threat of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The best chance will be
northwest of the trough across the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast
New Mexico Plains and Upper Trans Pecos region of west Texas where
cooler air aloft, upslope flow and terrain effects will be maximized.
Thick cloud cover will keep high temperatures below guidance.
Activity should weaken rapidly this evening with loss of heating
and trough washing out.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
fairly quiet due to the forecast area residing underneath a
decent ridge and on the western subsident side of a weak western
moving upper level low pressure system in the Mississippi Valley
to the western Gulf Coast. The exception to the quiet will be in
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. In these areas very intense
heating along a persistent surface trough along the eastern slopes
of the mountains and upslope flow will keep the threat of mainly
diurnally driven thunderstorms in the forecast in these areas.

Beyond Wednesday through the end of next week intense heating and
upslope flow will keep the chance of thunderstorms continuing in
the mountains. The threat of thunderstorms will also extend
eastward to include the southeast New Mexico plains and Trans
Pecos due to an anticipated slight eastward shift in the position
of the surface trough.

High temperatures will be above normal next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KMAF 291116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS have dissipated this morning and while more will develop this
afternoon, they should be west of the TAF sites and will not be
included with this issuance. VFR conditions and light southeast or
occasionally variable winds are expected the next 24 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Surface trough currently along a Snyder, Midland, Fort Stockton
line will weaken today but continue to generate the threat of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The best chance will be
northwest of the trough across the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast
New Mexico Plains and Upper Trans Pecos region of west Texas where
cooler air aloft, upslope flow and terrain effects will be maximized.
Thick cloud cover will keep high temperatures below guidance.
Activity should weaken rapidly this evening with loss of heating
and trough washing out.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
fairly quiet due to the forecast area residing underneath a
decent ridge and on the western subsident side of a weak western
moving upper level low pressure system in the Mississippi Valley
to the western Gulf Coast. The exception to the quiet will be in
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. In these areas very intense
heating along a persistent surface trough along the eastern slopes
of the mountains and upslope flow will keep the threat of mainly
diurnally driven thunderstorms in the forecast in these areas.

Beyond Wednesday through the end of next week intense heating and
upslope flow will keep the chance of thunderstorms continuing in
the mountains. The threat of thunderstorms will also extend
eastward to include the southeast New Mexico plains and Trans
Pecos due to an anticipated slight eastward shift in the position
of the surface trough.

High temperatures will be above normal next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KMAF 291116
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
616 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS have dissipated this morning and while more will develop this
afternoon, they should be west of the TAF sites and will not be
included with this issuance. VFR conditions and light southeast or
occasionally variable winds are expected the next 24 hours.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Surface trough currently along a Snyder, Midland, Fort Stockton
line will weaken today but continue to generate the threat of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The best chance will be
northwest of the trough across the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast
New Mexico Plains and Upper Trans Pecos region of west Texas where
cooler air aloft, upslope flow and terrain effects will be maximized.
Thick cloud cover will keep high temperatures below guidance.
Activity should weaken rapidly this evening with loss of heating
and trough washing out.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
fairly quiet due to the forecast area residing underneath a
decent ridge and on the western subsident side of a weak western
moving upper level low pressure system in the Mississippi Valley
to the western Gulf Coast. The exception to the quiet will be in
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. In these areas very intense
heating along a persistent surface trough along the eastern slopes
of the mountains and upslope flow will keep the threat of mainly
diurnally driven thunderstorms in the forecast in these areas.

Beyond Wednesday through the end of next week intense heating and
upslope flow will keep the chance of thunderstorms continuing in
the mountains. The threat of thunderstorms will also extend
eastward to include the southeast New Mexico plains and Trans
Pecos due to an anticipated slight eastward shift in the position
of the surface trough.

High temperatures will be above normal next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KMAF 290822
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
322 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Surface trough currently along a Snyder, Midland, Fort Stockton
line will weaken today but continue to generate the threat of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The best chance will be
northwest of the trough across the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast
New Mexico Plains and Upper Trans Pecos region of west Texas where
cooler air aloft, upslope flow and terrain effects will be maximized.
Thick cloud cover will keep high temperatures below guidance.
Activity should weaken rapidly this evening with loss of heating
and trough washing out.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
fairly quiet due to the forecast area residing underneath a
decent ridge and on the western subsident side of a weak western
moving upper level low pressure system in the Mississippi Valley
to the western Gulf Coast. The exception to the quiet will be in
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. In these areas very intense
heating along a persistent surface trough along the eastern slopes
of the mountains and upslope flow will keep the threat of mainly
diurnally driven thunderstorms in the forecast in these areas.

Beyond Wednesday through the end of next week intense heating and
upslope flow will keep the chance of thunderstorms continuing in
the mountains. The threat of thunderstorms will also extend
eastward to include the southeast New Mexico plains and Trans
Pecos due to an anticipated slight eastward shift in the position
of the surface trough.

High temperatures will be above normal next week.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  89  69  95  69  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    90  67  93  65  /  30  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                      96  72  98  71  /   0  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               92  69  94  69  /  10  10   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  66  86  65  /  40  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       88  65  90  65  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                       83  56  85  55  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        91  69  94  69  /  10  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                      90  70  93  70  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                        93  68  97  70  /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12




000
FXUS64 KMAF 290822
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
322 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Surface trough currently along a Snyder, Midland, Fort Stockton
line will weaken today but continue to generate the threat of
isolated to scattered thunderstorms. The best chance will be
northwest of the trough across the Guadalupe Mountains, Southeast
New Mexico Plains and Upper Trans Pecos region of west Texas where
cooler air aloft, upslope flow and terrain effects will be maximized.
Thick cloud cover will keep high temperatures below guidance.
Activity should weaken rapidly this evening with loss of heating
and trough washing out.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
fairly quiet due to the forecast area residing underneath a
decent ridge and on the western subsident side of a weak western
moving upper level low pressure system in the Mississippi Valley
to the western Gulf Coast. The exception to the quiet will be in
the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains. In these areas very intense
heating along a persistent surface trough along the eastern slopes
of the mountains and upslope flow will keep the threat of mainly
diurnally driven thunderstorms in the forecast in these areas.

Beyond Wednesday through the end of next week intense heating and
upslope flow will keep the chance of thunderstorms continuing in
the mountains. The threat of thunderstorms will also extend
eastward to include the southeast New Mexico plains and Trans
Pecos due to an anticipated slight eastward shift in the position
of the surface trough.

High temperatures will be above normal next week.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  89  69  95  69  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    90  67  93  65  /  30  10   0  10
DRYDEN TX                      96  72  98  71  /   0  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               92  69  94  69  /  10  10   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  66  86  65  /  40  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                       88  65  90  65  /  20  10   0   0
MARFA TX                       83  56  85  55  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        91  69  94  69  /  10  10   0  10
ODESSA TX                      90  70  93  70  /  10  10   0  10
WINK TX                        93  68  97  70  /  20  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12





000
FXUS64 KMAF 290542
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Storm intensity and lightning is diminishing across the area
tonight though showers will persist the next several hours in
southeast New Mexico and the western Permian Basin. VFR conditions
will persist the next 24 hours. Light winds will generally be from
the south, but outflow boundaries could cause sudden and erratic
changes in wind direction through at least 12Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KMAF 290542
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Storm intensity and lightning is diminishing across the area
tonight though showers will persist the next several hours in
southeast New Mexico and the western Permian Basin. VFR conditions
will persist the next 24 hours. Light winds will generally be from
the south, but outflow boundaries could cause sudden and erratic
changes in wind direction through at least 12Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KMAF 290542
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Storm intensity and lightning is diminishing across the area
tonight though showers will persist the next several hours in
southeast New Mexico and the western Permian Basin. VFR conditions
will persist the next 24 hours. Light winds will generally be from
the south, but outflow boundaries could cause sudden and erratic
changes in wind direction through at least 12Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KMAF 290542
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1242 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Storm intensity and lightning is diminishing across the area
tonight though showers will persist the next several hours in
southeast New Mexico and the western Permian Basin. VFR conditions
will persist the next 24 hours. Light winds will generally be from
the south, but outflow boundaries could cause sudden and erratic
changes in wind direction through at least 12Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KMAF 282306
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through 04z for most
terminals. There may be some isolated MVFR conditions in the
heavier storm cores; otherwise, VFR conditions are mostly
expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will become variable this
evening, with some gusts near the storms, and will mostly be out
of the east to southeast tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99




000
FXUS64 KMAF 282306
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through 04z for most
terminals. There may be some isolated MVFR conditions in the
heavier storm cores; otherwise, VFR conditions are mostly
expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will become variable this
evening, with some gusts near the storms, and will mostly be out
of the east to southeast tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99





000
FXUS64 KMAF 282306
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through 04z for most
terminals. There may be some isolated MVFR conditions in the
heavier storm cores; otherwise, VFR conditions are mostly
expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will become variable this
evening, with some gusts near the storms, and will mostly be out
of the east to southeast tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99




000
FXUS64 KMAF 282306
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
606 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers and thunderstorms are expected through 04z for most
terminals. There may be some isolated MVFR conditions in the
heavier storm cores; otherwise, VFR conditions are mostly
expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will become variable this
evening, with some gusts near the storms, and will mostly be out
of the east to southeast tomorrow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99





000
FXUS64 KMAF 281841
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  90  69  95  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    69  93  67  95  /  30  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      71 101  72 101  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               71  95  69  97  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              66  83  66  87  /  40  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       66  88  65  92  /  30  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       56  85  56  88  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  94  69  96  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      72  93  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        72  96  68  98  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/29




000
FXUS64 KMAF 281841
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  90  69  95  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    69  93  67  95  /  30  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      71 101  72 101  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               71  95  69  97  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              66  83  66  87  /  40  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       66  88  65  92  /  30  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       56  85  56  88  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  94  69  96  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      72  93  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        72  96  68  98  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/29





000
FXUS64 KMAF 281841
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  90  69  95  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    69  93  67  95  /  30  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      71 101  72 101  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               71  95  69  97  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              66  83  66  87  /  40  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       66  88  65  92  /  30  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       56  85  56  88  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  94  69  96  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      72  93  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        72  96  68  98  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/29





000
FXUS64 KMAF 281841
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
141 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The current pattern, which looks to stick around for at least
another week, offers little in the way of widespread precipitation
and keeps temperatures above normal.

An upper ridge to our west will continue to dominate our weather
with little fluctuations expected in its position. With weak low
level features, we did not see much in the way of showers or clouds
yesterday. This afternoon and evening, a surface trough along with an
area of higher theta-e resides across northwest portions of the
forecast area. These features along with strong daytime heating will
allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop. Southeast
NM and the northwest Permian Basin have the best chance of seeing
any rain. Gusty winds will be possible in and near these storms
given a dry sub-cloud layer.

Not much will change Saturday with the surface trough and theta-e
axis still lingering over the same areas. However...mid level
temperatures cool a bit so expect to see afternoon highs closer to
normal tomorrow. The next several mornings look cool and comfortable
as dew points each morning drop into the 40s and 50s.

By next week, the ridge will stay anchored to our west while an
upper low develops over East Texas and stalls. Between these two
features we should see mainly dry conditions continue with
temperatures several degrees above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  90  69  95  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    69  93  67  95  /  30  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                      71 101  72 101  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               71  95  69  97  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              66  83  66  87  /  40  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                       66  88  65  92  /  30  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       56  85  56  88  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  94  69  96  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      72  93  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        72  96  68  98  /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/29




000
FXUS64 KMAF 281724
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. May see some
afternoon storms especially near CNM and HOB. Wind will remain
southerly at most locations.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 281724
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. May see some
afternoon storms especially near CNM and HOB. Wind will remain
southerly at most locations.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 281724
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. May see some
afternoon storms especially near CNM and HOB. Wind will remain
southerly at most locations.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 281724
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1224 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. May see some
afternoon storms especially near CNM and HOB. Wind will remain
southerly at most locations.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 281128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Mid level cumulus
will develop this afternoon with -SHRA/TS possible at most TAF
sites though only confident to make mention at CNM and HOB at this
time. Convection will be more isolated south and east of New
Mexico. TS will dissipate by 06Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KMAF 281128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Mid level cumulus
will develop this afternoon with -SHRA/TS possible at most TAF
sites though only confident to make mention at CNM and HOB at this
time. Convection will be more isolated south and east of New
Mexico. TS will dissipate by 06Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KMAF 281128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Mid level cumulus
will develop this afternoon with -SHRA/TS possible at most TAF
sites though only confident to make mention at CNM and HOB at this
time. Convection will be more isolated south and east of New
Mexico. TS will dissipate by 06Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KMAF 281128
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
628 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours. Mid level cumulus
will develop this afternoon with -SHRA/TS possible at most TAF
sites though only confident to make mention at CNM and HOB at this
time. Convection will be more isolated south and east of New
Mexico. TS will dissipate by 06Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KMAF 280827
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  96  70  95  71  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    95  70  94  65  /  30  30  20  10
DRYDEN TX                     100  72 100  72  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               99  70  94  69  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  66  88  66  /  20  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                       91  66  90  64  /  20  30  10  10
MARFA TX                       89  59  85  57  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  71  95  68  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      96  72  94  70  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                       100  69  97  68  /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12




000
FXUS64 KMAF 280827
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Very intense heating along and north of a stalled surface trough
from the northern Permian Basin to the Trans Pecos Region of
west Texas will ignite isolated to scattered thunderstorms mainly
this afternoon and this evening. The best chance will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains where
cooler air aloft and greater instability will reside. Brief
strong winds will be the greatest concern in thunderstorms given
a large temperature/dew point spread expected late this afternoon
and early this evening. Despite considerable clouds expected, high
temperatures today will remain above normal.

For Saturday the stalled surface trough is expected to weaken
so areal coverage of storms is expected to diminish considerably
with activity ending by early Saturday evening.

The forecast for Sunday through the end of next week looks
on the quiet and persistent side due to the forecast area
residing on the western subsident side of a weak western moving
upper level low pressure system from the Mississippi Valley to the
Gulf Coast. The exception will be the Guadalupe and Davis
Mountains and the plains immediately adjacent to them. In these
areas very intense heating along a surface trough will keep the
threat of mainly diurnally driven storms in the forecast. High
temperatures are expected to remain above normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  96  70  95  71  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    95  70  94  65  /  30  30  20  10
DRYDEN TX                     100  72 100  72  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX               99  70  94  69  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  66  88  66  /  20  30  20  10
HOBBS NM                       91  66  90  64  /  20  30  10  10
MARFA TX                       89  59  85  57  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  71  95  68  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      96  72  94  70  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                       100  69  97  68  /  10  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/12





000
FXUS64 KMAF 280526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions this TAF period. A trough will cause TS to develop
mainly in southeast NM Friday afternoon affecting CNM/HOB 18-00Z.
TS could develop farther south but will leave out of other TAF
sites for now.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KMAF 280526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions this TAF period. A trough will cause TS to develop
mainly in southeast NM Friday afternoon affecting CNM/HOB 18-00Z.
TS could develop farther south but will leave out of other TAF
sites for now.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10





000
FXUS64 KMAF 280526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions this TAF period. A trough will cause TS to develop
mainly in southeast NM Friday afternoon affecting CNM/HOB 18-00Z.
TS could develop farther south but will leave out of other TAF
sites for now.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KMAF 280526
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1226 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions this TAF period. A trough will cause TS to develop
mainly in southeast NM Friday afternoon affecting CNM/HOB 18-00Z.
TS could develop farther south but will leave out of other TAF
sites for now.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.

MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

$$


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10




000
FXUS64 KMAF 272235
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings suggest a cu field developing by late Fri morning
everywhere but KMAF, w/bases 6-7 kft agl. Best chances for
convection will be KCNM near the end of the forecast period as an
upper-lvl trough enters SE NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44




000
FXUS64 KMAF 272235
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings suggest a cu field developing by late Fri morning
everywhere but KMAF, w/bases 6-7 kft agl. Best chances for
convection will be KCNM near the end of the forecast period as an
upper-lvl trough enters SE NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS64 KMAF 272235
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings suggest a cu field developing by late Fri morning
everywhere but KMAF, w/bases 6-7 kft agl. Best chances for
convection will be KCNM near the end of the forecast period as an
upper-lvl trough enters SE NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44




000
FXUS64 KMAF 272235
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
535 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in return flow. Forecast
soundings suggest a cu field developing by late Fri morning
everywhere but KMAF, w/bases 6-7 kft agl. Best chances for
convection will be KCNM near the end of the forecast period as an
upper-lvl trough enters SE NM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS64 KMAF 272108
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  97  70  96  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    69  96  70  95  /  10  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                      73 102  72 100  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  99  70  97  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  89  66  88  /  10  20  30  20
HOBBS NM                       67  92  66  91  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                       57  89  59  86  /  10  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  99  71  98  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      73  99  72  96  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                        72 100  69  99  /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/70




000
FXUS64 KMAF 272108
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
408 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Not much change from previous forecasts. Hot tomorrow with a few
locations across the upper Trans Pecos topping triple digits.  A
short wave trough topping the subtropical ridge over the southern
High Plains will progress out over upper Midwest Friday. The
associated surface cyclone/anticyclone couplet will send a weak
cold front down across east central NM east across the TX South
Plains by max heating tomorrow. Convergence along this boundary
along with a bit of instability will warrant isolated to scattered
TSRA Friday afternoon into the evening hours. Working against this
is a slug of dry tropospheric air mixing down and lowering surface
moisture, thus limiting PoPs closest to and north of the boundary.
This boundary is expected to dissipate as strong sensible heating
acts frontolytically Saturday. Thereafter, the subtropical ridge
will become pinched between a sharp long wave trough developing
off the NOAM west coast. Lowered thicknesses will keep
temperatures to just a few degrees above normal. With the mid-
tropospheric theta-e ridge aligned over the mountains, isolated
TSRA can be expected there. Elsewhere dry conditions are forecast
until late in the extended as a TUTT low approaches the region.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  71  97  70  96  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    69  96  70  95  /  10  30  30  20
DRYDEN TX                      73 102  72 100  /   0  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  99  70  97  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  89  66  88  /  10  20  30  20
HOBBS NM                       67  92  66  91  /  10  20  30  10
MARFA TX                       57  89  59  86  /  10  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  99  71  98  /   0  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      73  99  72  96  /   0  10  10  10
WINK TX                        72 100  69  99  /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/70





000
FXUS64 KMAF 271739
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1239 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites for the next 24
hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

Looks like a quiet day as an upper level ridge of high pressure
dominates. The possible exception will be the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains during the afternoon and evening where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible due to upslope flow and intense
heating of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue
to be above normal this afternoon.

For Friday and Saturday a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
track slowly southeast from southeast New Mexico Friday and stall
and weaken across the northern Permian Basin southwest to the
upper Trans Pecos region of southwest Texas Saturday. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms look possible near and northwest of
this line where cooler air aloft will reside. The convective
activity does not appear to have much potential to produce heavy
rainfall with less than impressive surface dew points expected.
Temperatures should remain well above normal both days despite
the boundary with considerable clouds expected.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
mainly quiet due to the forecast area residing on the western
subsident side of a weak western moving upper level low pressure
system from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. The
exception could be the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where
upslope flow and intense heating of the elevated surfaces could
generate isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected
to remain slightly above normal through this period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99





000
FXUS64 KMAF 271739
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1239 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites for the next 24
hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

Looks like a quiet day as an upper level ridge of high pressure
dominates. The possible exception will be the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains during the afternoon and evening where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible due to upslope flow and intense
heating of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue
to be above normal this afternoon.

For Friday and Saturday a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
track slowly southeast from southeast New Mexico Friday and stall
and weaken across the northern Permian Basin southwest to the
upper Trans Pecos region of southwest Texas Saturday. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms look possible near and northwest of
this line where cooler air aloft will reside. The convective
activity does not appear to have much potential to produce heavy
rainfall with less than impressive surface dew points expected.
Temperatures should remain well above normal both days despite
the boundary with considerable clouds expected.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
mainly quiet due to the forecast area residing on the western
subsident side of a weak western moving upper level low pressure
system from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. The
exception could be the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where
upslope flow and intense heating of the elevated surfaces could
generate isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected
to remain slightly above normal through this period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99




000
FXUS64 KMAF 271739
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1239 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites for the next 24
hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

Looks like a quiet day as an upper level ridge of high pressure
dominates. The possible exception will be the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains during the afternoon and evening where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible due to upslope flow and intense
heating of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue
to be above normal this afternoon.

For Friday and Saturday a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
track slowly southeast from southeast New Mexico Friday and stall
and weaken across the northern Permian Basin southwest to the
upper Trans Pecos region of southwest Texas Saturday. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms look possible near and northwest of
this line where cooler air aloft will reside. The convective
activity does not appear to have much potential to produce heavy
rainfall with less than impressive surface dew points expected.
Temperatures should remain well above normal both days despite
the boundary with considerable clouds expected.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
mainly quiet due to the forecast area residing on the western
subsident side of a weak western moving upper level low pressure
system from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. The
exception could be the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where
upslope flow and intense heating of the elevated surfaces could
generate isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected
to remain slightly above normal through this period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99




000
FXUS64 KMAF 271739
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1239 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites for the next 24
hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

Looks like a quiet day as an upper level ridge of high pressure
dominates. The possible exception will be the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains during the afternoon and evening where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible due to upslope flow and intense
heating of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue
to be above normal this afternoon.

For Friday and Saturday a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
track slowly southeast from southeast New Mexico Friday and stall
and weaken across the northern Permian Basin southwest to the
upper Trans Pecos region of southwest Texas Saturday. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms look possible near and northwest of
this line where cooler air aloft will reside. The convective
activity does not appear to have much potential to produce heavy
rainfall with less than impressive surface dew points expected.
Temperatures should remain well above normal both days despite
the boundary with considerable clouds expected.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
mainly quiet due to the forecast area residing on the western
subsident side of a weak western moving upper level low pressure
system from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. The
exception could be the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where
upslope flow and intense heating of the elevated surfaces could
generate isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected
to remain slightly above normal through this period.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99





000
FXUS64 KMAF 271043
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
543 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

Looks like a quiet day as an upper level ridge of high pressure
dominates. The possible exception will be the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains during the afternoon and evening where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible due to upslope flow and intense
heating of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue
to be above normal this afternoon.

For Friday and Saturday a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
track slowly southeast from southeast New Mexico Friday and stall
and weaken across the northern Permian Basin southwest to the
upper Trans Pecos region of southwest Texas Saturday. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms look possible near and northwest of
this line where cooler air aloft will reside. The convective
activity does not appear to have much potential to produce heavy
rainfall with less than impressive surface dew points expected.
Temperatures should remain well above normal both days despite
the boundary with considerable clouds expected.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
mainly quiet due to the forecast area residing on the western
subsident side of a weak western moving upper level low pressure
system from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. The
exception could be the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where
upslope flow and intense heating of the elevated surfaces could
generate isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected
to remain slightly above normal through this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  94  69  96  69  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    97  67  96  71  /  10  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                     100  74 102  71  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               97  72  97  70  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  66  88  63  /  10  10  30  30
HOBBS NM                       92  67  91  65  /   0  10  20  30
MARFA TX                       88  56  89  60  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  69  97  68  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      95  72  96  69  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        99  72 100  69  /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12




000
FXUS64 KMAF 271043
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
543 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 310 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/

Looks like a quiet day as an upper level ridge of high pressure
dominates. The possible exception will be the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains during the afternoon and evening where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible due to upslope flow and intense
heating of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue
to be above normal this afternoon.

For Friday and Saturday a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
track slowly southeast from southeast New Mexico Friday and stall
and weaken across the northern Permian Basin southwest to the
upper Trans Pecos region of southwest Texas Saturday. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms look possible near and northwest of
this line where cooler air aloft will reside. The convective
activity does not appear to have much potential to produce heavy
rainfall with less than impressive surface dew points expected.
Temperatures should remain well above normal both days despite
the boundary with considerable clouds expected.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
mainly quiet due to the forecast area residing on the western
subsident side of a weak western moving upper level low pressure
system from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. The
exception could be the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where
upslope flow and intense heating of the elevated surfaces could
generate isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected
to remain slightly above normal through this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  94  69  96  69  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    97  67  96  71  /  10  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                     100  74 102  71  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               97  72  97  70  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  66  88  63  /  10  10  30  30
HOBBS NM                       92  67  91  65  /   0  10  20  30
MARFA TX                       88  56  89  60  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  69  97  68  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      95  72  96  69  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        99  72 100  69  /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12





000
FXUS64 KMAF 270810
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
310 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like a quiet day as an upper level ridge of high pressure
dominates. The possible exception will be the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains during the afternoon and evening where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible due to upslope flow and intense
heating of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue
to be above normal this afternoon.

For Friday and Saturday a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
track slowly southeast from southeast New Mexico Friday and stall
and weaken across the northern Permian Basin southwest to the
upper Trans Pecos region of southwest Texas Saturday. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms look possible near and northwest of
this line where cooler air aloft will reside. The convective
activity does not appear to have much potential to produce heavy
rainfall with less than impressive surface dew points expected.
Temperatures should remain well above normal both days despite
the boundary with considerable clouds expected.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
mainly quiet due to the forecast area residing on the western
subsident side of a weak western moving upper level low pressure
system from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. The
exception could be the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where
upslope flow and intense heating of the elevated surfaces could
generate isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected
to remain slightly above normal through this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  94  69  96  69  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    97  67  96  71  /  10  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                     100  74 102  71  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               97  72  97  70  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  66  88  63  /  10  10  30  30
HOBBS NM                       92  67  91  65  /   0  10  20  30
MARFA TX                       88  56  89  60  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  69  97  68  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      95  72  96  69  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        99  72 100  69  /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12





000
FXUS64 KMAF 270810
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
310 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Looks like a quiet day as an upper level ridge of high pressure
dominates. The possible exception will be the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains during the afternoon and evening where isolated
thunderstorms will be possible due to upslope flow and intense
heating of the elevated surfaces. High temperatures will continue
to be above normal this afternoon.

For Friday and Saturday a weak frontal boundary is forecast to
track slowly southeast from southeast New Mexico Friday and stall
and weaken across the northern Permian Basin southwest to the
upper Trans Pecos region of southwest Texas Saturday. Isolated to
widely scattered thunderstorms look possible near and northwest of
this line where cooler air aloft will reside. The convective
activity does not appear to have much potential to produce heavy
rainfall with less than impressive surface dew points expected.
Temperatures should remain well above normal both days despite
the boundary with considerable clouds expected.

The forecast for Sunday through the middle of next week looks
mainly quiet due to the forecast area residing on the western
subsident side of a weak western moving upper level low pressure
system from the Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast. The
exception could be the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains where
upslope flow and intense heating of the elevated surfaces could
generate isolated thunderstorms. High temperatures are expected
to remain slightly above normal through this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  94  69  96  69  /   0  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    97  67  96  71  /  10  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                     100  74 102  71  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX               97  72  97  70  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  66  88  63  /  10  10  30  30
HOBBS NM                       92  67  91  65  /   0  10  20  30
MARFA TX                       88  56  89  60  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        96  69  97  68  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                      95  72  96  69  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                        99  72 100  69  /   0  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12




000
FXUS64 KMAF 270429
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1129 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 725 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

Area radars show convection has developed along a boundary
sinking south thru the lwr Trans Pecos, and we`ll do an update to
account for this. We`ll also update other parameters as necessary
based on current obs and short-term models. Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

AVIATION...

Thunderstorm activity this evening is not expected to affect area
terminals, and should gradually weaken after sunset. VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with sustained
southeast winds below 12kt.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

At press time, enhanced CU fields are restricted to the Davis
Mountains/Marfa Plateau and southeastern Permian Basin areas of
west Texas. Radar not showing much, although satellite data do
show that some towers got high enough to glaciate. We`ve low order
PoPs in the forecast for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains after
00Z this evening, so all looks good there. Otherwise look for a
quiet night with near normal temperatures, mostly clear skies, and
light winds.

A developing short wave trough within the monsoon burst over the
intermountain West is forecast to amplify somewhat and top the
seemingly permanent subtropical high over the southern High Plains
tonight and tomorrow. As heights fall over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska, heights begin to build downstream over the midwestern
states, and this along with a gradual deamplification of flow over
the northern Atlantic will serve to dampen the anomalously cold
closed low over eastern QB. As all this is going on, the base of
the mean long wave trough over the eastern CONUS gets calved off
and meanders over the southeastern states. In a nutshell, 1) the
developing short wave trough over the central Rockies proceeds to
amplify further over the northern Midwest and 2) the calved base
of the current long wave trough develops an upper circulation and
begins to retrograde westward. Likely all in response to the
large-scale evolution of future HRCN "Erika" (assuming she doesn`t
croak on dry air first). Surface anticyclogenesis beneath the
northern Midwestern system is expected to force a surface boundary
southwestward.

Okay, so sensible weather effects hereabouts will hinge on how far
the boundary progresses southwest as well as phasing with peak
diurnal heating Friday. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will
likely top the century mark across the Upper Trans Pecos and areas
along the Rio Grande. The models have been trending a bit slower
with the aforementioned boundary, not making it very far over
southeastern New Mexico before diabatic heating north of the
boundary Saturday acts frontolytically. Trying to tie all these
loose ends together, the best chances for PoPs will shift back
toward east central NM eastward across the Texas South Plains
Friday and Friday night, with the bulk of PoPs shifting back
toward the mountains this weekend. Meanwhile, slightly lower
thicknesses associated with the retrograding coastal upper low
will work to keep temperatures below triple digits into the middle
of next week, with 80s in the mountains and 90s elsewhere through
at least next Wednesday. This is good if for no other reason it`ll
be September and we deserve a break, no matter how small.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 270429
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1129 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 725 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

Area radars show convection has developed along a boundary
sinking south thru the lwr Trans Pecos, and we`ll do an update to
account for this. We`ll also update other parameters as necessary
based on current obs and short-term models. Updates out shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 644 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

AVIATION...

Thunderstorm activity this evening is not expected to affect area
terminals, and should gradually weaken after sunset. VFR
conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours with sustained
southeast winds below 12kt.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 226 PM CDT WED AUG 26 2015/

At press time, enhanced CU fields are restricted to the Davis
Mountains/Marfa Plateau and southeastern Permian Basin areas of
west Texas. Radar not showing much, although satellite data do
show that some towers got high enough to glaciate. We`ve low order
PoPs in the forecast for the Davis and Guadalupe Mountains after
00Z this evening, so all looks good there. Otherwise look for a
quiet night with near normal temperatures, mostly clear skies, and
light winds.

A developing short wave trough within the monsoon burst over the
intermountain West is forecast to amplify somewhat and top the
seemingly permanent subtropical high over the southern High Plains
tonight and tomorrow. As heights fall over the eastern Gulf of
Alaska, heights begin to build downstream over the midwestern
states, and this along with a gradual deamplification of flow over
the northern Atlantic will serve to dampen the anomalously cold
closed low over eastern QB. As all this is going on, the base of
the mean long wave trough over the eastern CONUS gets calved off
and meanders over the southeastern states. In a nutshell, 1) the
developing short wave trough over the central Rockies proceeds to
amplify further over the northern Midwest and 2) the calved base
of the current long wave trough develops an upper circulation and
begins to retrograde westward. Likely all in response to the
large-scale evolution of future HRCN "Erika" (assuming she doesn`t
croak on dry air first). Surface anticyclogenesis beneath the
northern Midwestern system is expected to force a surface boundary
southwestward.

Okay, so sensible weather effects hereabouts will hinge on how far
the boundary progresses southwest as well as phasing with peak
diurnal heating Friday. Temperatures Thursday and Friday will
likely top the century mark across the Upper Trans Pecos and areas
along the Rio Grande. The models have been trending a bit slower
with the aforementioned boundary, not making it very far over
southeastern New Mexico before diabatic heating north of the
boundary Saturday acts frontolytically. Trying to tie all these
loose ends together, the best chances for PoPs will shift back
toward east central NM eastward across the Texas South Plains
Friday and Friday night, with the bulk of PoPs shifting back
toward the mountains this weekend. Meanwhile, slightly lower
thicknesses associated with the retrograding coastal upper low
will work to keep temperatures below triple digits into the middle
of next week, with 80s in the mountains and 90s elsewhere through
at least next Wednesday. This is good if for no other reason it`ll
be September and we deserve a break, no matter how small.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$





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