000
FXUS64 KMAF 242302
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
602 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INITIALLY, HOWEVER MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS LOOKING RATHER SPARSE, IF NOT UNLIKELY, AT ALL TAF
SITES OVERNIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE WINDS ARE POISED TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER THE
REGION. THIS ALONG WITH A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD KEEP
SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 15KT UNTIL WELL INTO THE NIGHT WHEN THE
GRADIENT SLACKENS, AND LOW LEVEL JET DECREASES. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE ON THESE WINDS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW VFR OR MVFR
CEILINGS OVER MOST TAF SITES AFTER 25/09Z. ANY LOWER CLOUDS THAT
FORM SHOULD SCATTER OUT NEAR 25/15Z. 67
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
A COOL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AIDED BY LAST
NIGHTS CONVECTION SO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN EAST WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS GREATEST DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...HOWEVER
THERE IS NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT SO MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON WHERE TS
WILL DEVELOP. CAPES WILL BE 1-2KJ/KG BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 15-25KTS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE TYPE WITH LOW SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO
THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS STRONG
WINDS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BIG BEND
TONIGHT PERHAPS EXTENDING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
A PERSISTENT WEST COAST TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW KEEPING THE DRYLINE PULLED BACK AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL THEN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY THE WEST COAST TROUGH FINALLY
MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ACTIVATING THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW
FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED...SO WILL GO WITH A
WEAKER SOLUTION AND KEEP THE POPS IN THE EAST FOR NOW. A DEEPER
ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTION MAY BRING CONVECTION FURTHER WEST INTO
SE NM AND THE BIG BEND.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 66 85 66 92 / 30 20 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 85 67 91 / 40 20 20 10
CARLSBAD NM 66 95 64 100 / 20 20 10 0
DRYDEN TX 69 90 68 96 / 30 20 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 67 84 67 92 / 30 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 84 61 88 / 20 20 10 0
HOBBS NM 64 87 62 94 / 20 20 10 0
MARFA TX 60 87 58 88 / 30 20 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 67 84 68 91 / 30 20 10 10
ODESSA TX 68 85 67 91 / 30 20 10 0
WINK TX 69 88 67 94 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/10
000
FXUS64 KMAF 241951
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
251 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A COOL AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AIDED BY LAST
NIGHTS CONVECTION SO THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. KEPT POPS HIGHEST IN EAST WHERE THE
INSTABILITY IS GREATEST DUE TO HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...HOWEVER
THERE IS NO SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER SUPPORT WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL LATER TONIGHT SO MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE ON WHERE TS
WILL DEVELOP. CAPES WILL BE 1-2KJ/KG BUT WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 15-25KTS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE PULSE TYPE WITH LOW SEVERE
POTENTIAL. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER IS STILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL SO
THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND PERHAPS STRONG
WINDS. AN UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE BIG BEND
TONIGHT PERHAPS EXTENDING CONVECTION INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
A PERSISTENT WEST COAST TROUGH WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER
SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW KEEPING THE DRYLINE PULLED BACK AGAINST
THE MOUNTAINS. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL WEDNESDAY SO KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY UNTIL THEN. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS. WEDNESDAY THE WEST COAST TROUGH FINALLY
MOVES EAST INTO THE PLAINS ACTIVATING THE DRYLINE. MODELS ARE NOT
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEPTH OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL DETERMINE HOW
FAR WEST THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS PULLED...SO WILL GO WITH A
WEAKER SOLUTION AND KEEP THE POPS IN THE EAST FOR NOW. A DEEPER
ECMWF OR CANADIAN SOLUTION MAY BRING CONVECTION FURTHER WEST INTO
SE NM AND THE BIG BEND.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 66 85 66 92 / 30 20 10 0
BIG SPRING TX 66 85 67 91 / 40 20 20 10
CARLSBAD NM 66 95 64 100 / 20 20 10 0
DRYDEN TX 69 90 68 96 / 30 20 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 67 84 67 92 / 30 20 10 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 84 61 88 / 20 20 10 0
HOBBS NM 64 87 62 94 / 20 20 10 0
MARFA TX 60 87 58 88 / 30 20 10 10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 67 84 68 91 / 30 20 10 10
ODESSA TX 68 85 67 91 / 30 20 10 0
WINK TX 69 88 67 94 / 20 20 10 0
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
03/10
000
FXUS64 KMAF 241733
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
PLEASE SEE 18Z DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
PREVAILING SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS MAY GUST UP
TO NEAR 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION REMAINS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF ATTM. WILL ISSUE AMENDMENTS IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES. OTHERWISE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOW CIGS DEVELOPING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KPEQ. NOT REALLY CONVINCED OF
THIS JUST YET AND WILL LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN AFTER A FAIRLY BUSY EVENING. MANY LOCATIONS
RECEIVED SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH SEVERAL INCHES FALLING FROM
SNYDER TO BIG SPRING TO BIG LAKE. ALL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS THE HEAVY RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MAY HAMPER CONVECTIVE CHANCES A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE S/W, THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. WITH THAT SAID,
EXPECT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT MAINLY AFTER LUNCHTIME. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK
TODAY...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WILL
PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY RAIN.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
STORM COVERAGE. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
STRENGTHENING CAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, BUT COULD STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE DRYLINE. MODELS THEN DISAGREE A BIT ON THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WX PATTERN. THE ECMWF EJECTS A STRONG TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TROUGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
NEXT SYSTEM. EITHER WAY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
27
000
FXUS64 KMAF 241136
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TERMINALS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES...WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY MID MORNING
ACROSS MOST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KCNM. THERE WILL BE
MAINLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...HOWEVER
THE CONVECTION SHOULD NOT BE EXTENSIVE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A PROB30
GROUPING. IF CONDITIONS WARRANT THE TAFS WILL BE AMENDED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE ANY CHANGES IN WEATHER.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 502 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN AFTER A FAIRLY BUSY EVENING. MANY LOCATIONS
RECEIVED SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH SEVERAL INCHES FALLING FROM
SNYDER TO BIG SPRING TO BIG LAKE. ALL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS THE HEAVY RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MAY HAMPER CONVECTIVE CHANCES A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE S/W, THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. WITH THAT SAID,
EXPECT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT MAINLY AFTER LUNCHTIME. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK
TODAY...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WILL
PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY RAIN.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
STORM COVERAGE. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
STRENGTHENING CAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, BUT COULD STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE DRYLINE. MODELS THEN DISAGREE A BIT ON THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WX PATTERN. THE ECMWF EJECTS A STRONG TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TROUGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
NEXT SYSTEM. EITHER WAY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS64 KMAF 241002
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THINGS HAVE QUIETED DOWN AFTER A FAIRLY BUSY EVENING. MANY LOCATIONS
RECEIVED SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WITH SEVERAL INCHES FALLING FROM
SNYDER TO BIG SPRING TO BIG LAKE. ALL FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS THE HEAVY RAIN MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.
THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX HAS EFFECTIVELY STABILIZED THE AREA THIS
MORNING AND MAY HAMPER CONVECTIVE CHANCES A BIT FOR THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN THOUGH THERE IS NO DISCERNIBLE S/W, THERE MAY BE ONE OR TWO
LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM YESTERDAYS STORMS. WITH THAT SAID,
EXPECT SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A MOIST UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT MAINLY AFTER LUNCHTIME. VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS WEAK
TODAY...HOWEVER STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG WILL
PROMOTE A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. SLOW STORM MOTIONS
AND PWATS AROUND 1.25 INCHES WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF HEAVY RAIN.
VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH SLIGHTLY LESS
STORM COVERAGE. WEAK RIDGING BUILDS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH A
STRENGTHENING CAP AND WARMING TEMPERATURES, BUT COULD STILL SEE AN
ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE DRYLINE. MODELS THEN DISAGREE A BIT ON THE
MID TO LATE WEEK WX PATTERN. THE ECMWF EJECTS A STRONG TROUGH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH THE GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE AND
FARTHER NORTH WITH THE TROUGH. WILL HOLD OFF ON THE MENTION OF
PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AND WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS ON THE
NEXT SYSTEM. EITHER WAY MORE SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 85 67 83 68 / 30 30 20 10
BIG SPRING TX 88 68 85 68 / 30 40 20 20
CARLSBAD NM 91 63 92 62 / 20 20 20 10
DRYDEN TX 87 69 86 68 / 30 30 20 10
FORT STOCKTON TX 86 66 86 68 / 30 30 20 10
GUADALUPE PASS TX 82 61 87 64 / 20 20 20 10
HOBBS NM 85 63 84 62 / 30 20 20 20
MARFA TX 81 56 84 55 / 30 30 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 86 68 83 68 / 30 30 20 10
ODESSA TX 87 68 85 69 / 30 30 20 10
WINK TX 88 69 90 68 / 30 20 20 10
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
33/29
000
FXUS64 KMAF 240534
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 AM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MCS IS MOVING EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS TIME. THE ATMOSPHERE IS
STABILIZING IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
CONTINUES TO COOL. RADAR IS INDC ISOLATED -SHRA AT BEST...SO WILL
NOT MENTION IN THE TAFS. HAVE TAKEN OUT THE PROB30 IN THE TAFS FOR
FRIDAY AS IT LOOKS LIKE THE DEEPEST GULF MOISTURE WILL BE BLOCKED
BY THE COLD POOL FROM THIS AFTN/EVENINGS MCS FROM MOVING INTO THE
CWA...THEREFORE ANY CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AFTN LOOKS TO BE
ISOLATED. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS64 KMAF 240326
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1026 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ALL WATCHES HAVE EXPIRED AND SEVERE THREAT IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING AND
IS MAINLY CONFINED TO MITCHELL...GLASSCOCK...REAGAN..AND TERRELL
COUNTIES. HAVE LEFT A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS IN THE FCST THERE.
HEAVY RAIN IS MORE OF A CONCERN FOR NOW IN MITCHELL...GLASSCOCK...AND
REAGAN COUNTIES THRU AROUND MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 214 AND TORNADO WATCH
213 EARLY AND WILL LET REMAINDER OF THE FAR E AND S CWFA THAT ARE STILL
IN THE WATCHES EXPIRE AT 10 PM. TSTMS ARE STILL ACROSS THE E PB
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE NEXT FEW ACROSS PB MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE
BOUNDARY. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND 10 PM FOR EXPIRATION
WATCHES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
FOCUS THIS FORECAST IS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SOME SEVERE
AROUND THE AREA. FOR THE NEAR TERM THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT TAF SITES IN MINIMAL. STILL WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS THRU 02Z-05Z
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER FRI PM AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION. KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 68 85 68 84 / 30 30 40 20
BIG SPRING TX 61 86 69 85 / 50 30 40 20
CARLSBAD NM 69 90 65 92 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 74 87 69 88 / 20 30 30 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 64 87 67 86 / 20 30 30 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 61 84 61 87 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 67 87 64 86 / 20 30 30 20
MARFA TX 57 81 57 85 / 20 30 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 85 69 84 / 30 30 40 20
ODESSA TX 70 84 69 85 / 30 30 40 20
WINK TX 70 86 69 93 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 240156 AAA
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
856 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
HAVE CANCELLED PORTIONS OF SEVERE TSTM WATCH 214 AND TORNADO WATCH
213 EARLY AND WILL LET REMAINDER OF THE FAR E AND S CWFA THAT ARE STILL
IN THE WATCHES EXPIRE AT 10 PM. TSTMS ARE STILL ACROSS THE E PB
ALTHOUGH SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED SOME. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
ARE STILL ACROSS THE AREA AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS STILL
POSSIBLE NEXT FEW ACROSS PB MAINLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE
BOUNDARY. WILL SEND ANOTHER UPDATE AROUND 10 PM FOR EXPIRATION
WATCHES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
FOCUS THIS FORECAST IS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SOME SEVERE
AROUND THE AREA. FOR THE NEAR TERM THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT TAF SITES IN MINIMAL. STILL WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS THRU 02Z-05Z
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER FRI PM AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION. KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 68 85 68 84 / 30 30 40 20
BIG SPRING TX 69 86 69 85 / 50 30 40 20
CARLSBAD NM 69 90 65 92 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 74 87 69 88 / 20 30 30 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 87 67 86 / 20 30 30 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 84 61 87 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 67 87 64 86 / 20 30 30 20
MARFA TX 57 81 57 85 / 20 30 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 85 69 84 / 30 30 40 20
ODESSA TX 70 84 69 85 / 30 30 40 20
WINK TX 71 86 69 93 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 232349
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
649 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOCUS THIS FORECAST IS AROUND THE POTENTIAL FOR STORMS SOME SEVERE
AROUND THE AREA. FOR THE NEAR TERM THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
AT TAF SITES IN MINIMAL. STILL WILL KEEP TEMPO GROUPS THRU 02Z-05Z
POSSIBLE MVFR CIGS ASSOCD WITH TSTMS. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS POSSIBLE
LATER FRI PM AND HAVE INCLUDED PROB30.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION. KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 231922
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
222 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS TAKING SHAPE THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 3 KJ/KG
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF A DRYLINE LOCATED ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
TRANS PECOS. CONVECTION HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA. MID LEVEL LIFT IS
PRESENT WITH GOOD OMEGA VALUES AND A SHORTWAVE MOVING NEAR THE
AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH THE GOOD MOISTURE...LIFT AND INSTABILITY PRESENT. A
TORNADO WATCH AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 10
PM CDT. THE SOMEWHAT MODEST SHEAR VALUES WOULD BE THE ONLY
PROHIBITING FACTOR KEEPING STORMS FROM REACHING SEVERE LEVELS.
MODELS INDICATE A POSSIBLE MCS DEVELOPING NEAR CHILDRESS TX LATE
THIS EVENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
STORM COMPLEX MAY IMPACT THE NORTHEAST PERMIAN BASIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY BUT THIS MAY CHANGE AS NEW MODEL
DATA COMES IN THIS EVENING.
EXPECT MORE STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN PLENTIFUL AND UPPER LIFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE
AREA BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO WHERE THE CONVECTION WILL
DEVELOP. LAPSE RATES...CAPE AND SHEAR APPEAR TO BE LESS IMPRESSIVE
SO DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IF ANY IN TERMS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
PWATS REMAIN ABOVE 1 INCH THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY SO HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN WITH THE CONVECTION. KEPT RAIN AND
STORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH MID LEVEL LIFT NEAR THE
AREA AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL PRESENT. THE RAIN COOLED AIR AND
INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FOR SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST OF THE AREA.
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS LEAVING THE REGION IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. A DRYLINE WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SO
STORMS WILL REMAIN A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE
EASTWARD DURING MID WEEK WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BECOMING MORE
POSSIBLE DUE TO INCREASING UPPER LIFT AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.
DECREASING HEIGHTS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO HOT NEXT WEEK. MORNING LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY ON THE WARM SIDE DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF GOOD LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 68 85 68 84 / 50 30 40 20
BIG SPRING TX 69 86 69 85 / 50 30 40 20
CARLSBAD NM 69 90 65 92 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 74 87 69 88 / 30 30 30 20
FORT STOCKTON TX 69 87 67 86 / 50 30 30 20
GUADALUPE PASS TX 63 84 61 87 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 67 87 64 86 / 40 30 30 20
MARFA TX 57 81 57 85 / 50 30 20 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 69 85 69 84 / 40 30 40 20
ODESSA TX 70 84 69 85 / 40 30 40 20
WINK TX 71 86 69 93 / 40 30 30 20
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05/80
000
FXUS64 KMAF 231823
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
123 PM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ENTERING THE PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE APPROACHING SOUTHWEST TEXAS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
THOUGH CURRENT TERMINAL FORECASTS DO NOT FORECAST A WIND SHIFT
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...THE BOUNDARY COULD POTENTIALLY GET AS FAR
WEST AS MAF AND HOB BY 00Z...RESULTING IN A MORE EASTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE
EAST INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPORARY
THUNDERSTORM CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR ALL AREA TERMINALS LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN VFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 514 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
AVIATION...
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD 16Z-19Z
THURSDAY...W/BASES 6-13KFT AGL. MODELS THEN DEVELOP CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AROUND
18Z...AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY...MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER LLJ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION OUT
WEST FIRST...AND THEN THE NOCTURNAL MCS OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING
EASTERN TERMINALS. BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING A STRATUS DECK INTO THE
EASTERN TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CIGS
SHOULD STAY ABV 3KFT AGL UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WAY UP AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WHILE GULF MOISTURE AT THE SFC
SPREADS WEST ACROSS THE AREA. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND FAR WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK FRONT STALLS IN THE
TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FIRST STORMS WILL
INITIATE OVER PARTS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AROUND LUNCHTIME OWING TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MORE STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SE NM AND AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM AND
CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE STORMS
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER...MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY STORM FROM GETTING TOO ORGANIZED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND
GFS DEVELOP AN MCS OFF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE IT SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE REGION DRY
WITH PRECIP WELL TO OUR EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE NAM AND GFS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING
TODAY`S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. STILL EXPECT CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL DATA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH NEAR 2SD ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS EVENING SO WILL ALSO ADD
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP, BUT THEY COULD HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A S/W EJECTS OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS AND MUGGY MORNINGS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
05
000
FXUS64 KMAF 231014
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
514 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD 16Z-19Z
THURSDAY...W/BASES 6-13KFT AGL. MODELS THEN DEVELOP CONVECTION
OVER THE MOUNTAINS/ADJACENT PLAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA AROUND
18Z...AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS OUT OF THE NORTH AFTER 00Z
FRIDAY...MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER LLJ INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
LATEST MODEL RUNS CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION OUT
WEST FIRST...AND THEN THE NOCTURNAL MCS OVERNIGHT...IMPACTING
EASTERN TERMINALS. BUFFER SOUNDINGS BRING A STRATUS DECK INTO THE
EASTERN TERMINALS NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...BUT CIGS
SHOULD STAY ABV 3KFT AGL UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013/
DISCUSSION...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WAY UP AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WHILE GULF MOISTURE AT THE SFC
SPREADS WEST ACROSS THE AREA. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND FAR WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK FRONT STALLS IN THE
TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FIRST STORMS WILL
INITIATE OVER PARTS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AROUND LUNCHTIME OWING TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MORE STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SE NM AND AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM AND
CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE STORMS
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER...MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY STORM FROM GETTING TOO ORGANIZED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND
GFS DEVELOP AN MCS OFF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE IT SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE REGION DRY
WITH PRECIP WELL TO OUR EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE NAM AND GFS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING
TODAY`S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. STILL EXPECT CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL DATA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH NEAR 2SD ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS EVENING SO WILL ALSO ADD
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP, BUT THEY COULD HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A S/W EJECTS OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS AND MUGGY MORNINGS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
000
FXUS64 KMAF 230958
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
458 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE WAY UP AS WE TRANSITION
INTO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC WHILE GULF MOISTURE AT THE SFC
SPREADS WEST ACROSS THE AREA. A DRYLINE WILL SET UP ACROSS EASTERN
NM AND FAR WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK FRONT STALLS IN THE
TX PANHANDLE. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE FIRST STORMS WILL
INITIATE OVER PARTS OF THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS AROUND LUNCHTIME OWING TO
DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT. MORE STORMS WILL THEN DEVELOP
ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER SE NM AND AREAS GENERALLY WEST OF THE PECOS
RIVER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ~8 C/KM AND
CAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG WILL HELP SUPPORT A FEW INTENSE STORMS
CONTAINING SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS...HOWEVER...MODEST DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL PREVENT ANY STORM FROM GETTING TOO ORGANIZED.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH REGARDS TO CONVECTION. BOTH THE 00Z NAM AND
GFS DEVELOP AN MCS OFF THE CAPROCK THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE IT SOUTH
INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS MOST OF THE REGION DRY
WITH PRECIP WELL TO OUR EAST. IT IS WORTH NOTING THE NAM AND GFS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS REGARDING
TODAY`S CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS AND INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS. STILL EXPECT CHANGES TO BE MADE TO THE
FORECAST TODAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL DATA. PWATS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH NEAR 2SD ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS EVENING SO WILL ALSO ADD
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN FOR TONIGHT.
DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF STORMS TONIGHT, THERE COULD BE SEVERAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY
TO TELL WHERE THESE BOUNDARIES WILL SET UP, BUT THEY COULD HELP
FOCUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SFC. STORMS LOOK POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE, BUT TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT AN EXACT LOCATION.
NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A S/W EJECTS OUT OF THE 4-CORNERS
REGION. TEMPERATURES LOOK SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WARM
AFTERNOONS AND MUGGY MORNINGS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 96 68 84 65 / 20 40 30 40
BIG SPRING TX 97 69 86 67 / 20 40 30 40
CARLSBAD NM 99 69 90 63 / 20 20 20 20
DRYDEN TX 97 72 86 68 / 10 20 30 30
FORT STOCKTON TX 97 69 85 67 / 20 30 30 30
GUADALUPE PASS TX 90 62 84 61 / 20 20 20 20
HOBBS NM 93 65 83 62 / 20 30 30 30
MARFA TX 91 59 81 57 / 20 30 30 20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 96 69 83 66 / 20 40 30 40
ODESSA TX 96 70 84 67 / 20 40 30 40
WINK TX 98 71 88 69 / 20 30 30 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44/29
000
FXUS64 KMAF 230541
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NOCTURNAL LLJ IS IN FULL GEAR TONIGHT...W/KMAF SHOWING 50KTS OUT
OF THE SSE...ABOUT 10KTS STRONGER THAN MODELS ANTICIPATED 24 HRS
AGO. THIS WILL CONTINUE ADVECTING ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION...BUT BUFFER SOUNDINGS DO NOT INDICATE STRATUS DEVELOPING
OVERNIGHT. SOUNDINGS DO DEVELOP A WIDESPREAD CU FIELD 16Z-19Z
THURSDAY...W/BASES 6-11KFT AGL. MODELS THEN DEVELOP CONVECTION
OMTNS AROUND 18Z...AND BRING AN IMPRESSIVE MCS OUT OF THE NORTH
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...MAINTAINED BY ANOTHER LLJ INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WE/LL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY CONVECTION
ATTM...PREFERRING TO LOOK AT THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION WHEN IT COMES
IN...AND MAKING THE FINAL CALL FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. IFR/LIFR
CIGS WILL ALSO COME INTO THE PICTURE AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY...BUT AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BACKING FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE WESTWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER WITH NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
ON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEING THE MAIN TRIGGERS. THE ONE
FACTOR THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST FOR WILL BE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONE
SUCH FEATURE MAY PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. AS MENTIONED BY
THE MID SHIFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM ONE
HALF INCH CURRENTLY TO WELL OVER AN INCH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
MEANING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE LOW AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES JUST ARE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH.
THE INCREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN
BELOW CLIMO AND MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY SO DECIDED TO END POPS AT
THAT TIME THOUGH THE GENERAL WEST COAST TROUGH/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE REGIME WILL CONTINUE SO CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES INTO
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW RAIN NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
NOT INTRODUCE POPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
000
FXUS64 KMAF 222342
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
642 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL JET WILL HELP TO KEEP WINDS UP OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES. LOW
LEVEL MSTR WILL RETURN OVERNIGHT ALSO BUT HAVEN/T SEEN ANY INDICATIONS
OF LOW CLOUDS. SATELLITE DOES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING FROM THE
W AND BKN200-250 WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
INCREASE AFTER 18Z THUR. FOR NOW HAVE OPTED LEAVE PROB30 GROUPS OUT
BUT THEY WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO APPEAR IN TAFS IN THE 06Z AND 12Z
ISSUANCES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY...BUT AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BACKING FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE WESTWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER WITH NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
ON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEING THE MAIN TRIGGERS. THE ONE
FACTOR THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST FOR WILL BE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONE
SUCH FEATURE MAY PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. AS MENTIONED BY
THE MID SHIFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM ONE
HALF INCH CURRENTLY TO WELL OVER AN INCH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
MEANING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE LOW AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES JUST ARE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH.
THE INCREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN
BELOW CLIMO AND MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY SO DECIDED TO END POPS AT
THAT TIME THOUGH THE GENERAL WEST COAST TROUGH/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE REGIME WILL CONTINUE SO CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES INTO
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW RAIN NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
NOT INTRODUCE POPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY.
HENNIG
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMAF 221937
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ZONAL FLOW WILL INHIBIT CONVECTION TODAY...BUT AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CAUSE FLOW TO BACK FROM THE SOUTHWEST
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ALLOWING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM THURSDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BACKING FLOW WILL
CAUSE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO SURGE WESTWARD INCREASING INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE CWA HOWEVER WITH NO SURFACE BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
ON...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
AND WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES BEING THE MAIN TRIGGERS. THE ONE
FACTOR THAT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO FORECAST FOR WILL BE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WHICH COULD PROVIDE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. ONE
SUCH FEATURE MAY PUSH SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING AS CONVECTION FIRES
IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT. AS MENTIONED BY
THE MID SHIFT...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE FROM ONE
HALF INCH CURRENTLY TO WELL OVER AN INCH TOMORROW AND FRIDAY
MEANING THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT FOR HEAVY RAIN. THE
THREAT FOR VERY LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT ESPECIALLY IN
URBAN AREAS WHERE DRAINAGE IS POOR. THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT HOWEVER WILL BE LOW AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES JUST ARE NOT
QUITE HIGH ENOUGH.
THE INCREASE IN PRECIP AND CLOUDS WILL BRING HIGH TEMPS BACK DOWN
BELOW CLIMO AND MAKE FOR A PLEASANT NEXT FEW DAYS. MID LEVEL WINDS
BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY BY SUNDAY SO DECIDED TO END POPS AT
THAT TIME THOUGH THE GENERAL WEST COAST TROUGH/CENTRAL PLAINS
RIDGE REGIME WILL CONTINUE SO CANNOT RULE OUT RAIN CHANCES INTO
NEXT WEEK. IN FACT SEVERAL MODELS DO SHOW RAIN NEXT WEEK BUT WILL
NOT INTRODUCE POPS THAT FAR OUT GIVEN HOW DRY WE HAVE BEEN
RECENTLY.
HENNIG
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 69 97 68 85 / 0 20 30 40
BIG SPRING TX 71 94 70 86 / 0 20 30 40
CARLSBAD NM 65 99 68 88 / 0 20 30 30
DRYDEN TX 72 100 73 86 / 0 20 20 30
FORT STOCKTON TX 71 99 70 85 / 0 20 30 30
GUADALUPE PASS TX 64 93 62 82 / 0 20 30 30
HOBBS NM 65 95 66 85 / 0 20 30 30
MARFA TX 61 91 62 81 / 0 20 40 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 71 95 70 85 / 0 20 30 30
ODESSA TX 71 96 70 85 / 0 20 30 30
WINK TX 70 100 71 88 / 0 30 30 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
80/10
000
FXUS64 KMAF 221729
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD DUE TO A LOW LEVEL JET MOVING
OVER THE AREA.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER SETS IN
ACROSS W TX AND SE NM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS (~28C) SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 100 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE
AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK KEEPING
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO ~1.3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (NEARLY +2SD FOR LATE MAY). INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DRYLINE. AT
THIS TIME, THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 100 WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
99
000
FXUS64 KMAF 220943
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
443 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A CU FIELD DEVELOPING OVER THE ERN TERMINALS...W/BASES 8-9
KFT AGL. OTHERWISE...RETURN FLOW CONTINUES...W/A 40+KT LLJ
MAINTAINING WINDS OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER SETS IN
ACROSS W TX AND SE NM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS (~28C) SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 100 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE
AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK KEEPING
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO ~1.3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (NEARLY +2SD FOR LATE MAY). INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DRYLINE. AT
THIS TIME, THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 100 WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
000
FXUS64 KMAF 220934
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
434 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE QUIET DAY TODAY BEFORE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER SETS IN
ACROSS W TX AND SE NM. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA
TODAY AS THE PESKY UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS FINALLY BEGINS
TO MOVE EAST. WARMING 850 MB TEMPS (~28C) SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO
REACH THE 90S TO NEAR 100 MOST LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST BY THURSDAY
ALLOWING MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS.
MODELS SHOW SEVERAL MID LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WHICH SHOULD ACT TO ENHANCE LIFT OVER THE
AREA. DAYTIME HEATING WILL LEAD TO INCREASED INSTABILITY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK KEEPING
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER LOW. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO ~1.3 INCHES OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA (NEARLY +2SD FOR LATE MAY). INCREASING CLOUDS WILL KNOCK
TEMPERATURES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO FLATTEN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE DRYLINE. AT
THIS TIME, THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY LOOKS HOT WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S
TO NEAR 100 WITH A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS DIVERGE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM WITH POSSIBLY MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS BY MIDWEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX 94 71 94 68 / 0 0 20 30
BIG SPRING TX 95 71 95 69 / 0 0 20 30
CARLSBAD NM 97 63 99 67 / 0 0 20 20
DRYDEN TX 95 74 95 73 / 0 0 10 30
FORT STOCKTON TX 96 72 96 69 / 0 0 20 30
GUADALUPE PASS TX 92 67 89 63 / 0 0 20 20
HOBBS NM 92 65 94 65 / 0 0 20 20
MARFA TX 91 54 87 59 / 0 0 20 30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX 95 72 94 69 / 0 0 20 30
ODESSA TX 95 73 94 70 / 0 0 20 30
WINK TX 99 71 99 72 / 0 0 20 30
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44/29
000
FXUS64 KMAF 220507
AFDMAF
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
&&
.AVIATION...
NO MAJOR AVIATION WORRIES NEXT 24 HOURS...AS VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAIL. SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE VEERING AS RETURN FLOW
REESTABLISHES. 40+KT LLJ WILL KEEP WINDS UP WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO WARMER
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD OVERHEAD. RETURN FLOW
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE
RETURN ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE. THIS MOISTURE
WILL MIX OUT WITH STRONG HEATING THURSDAY...BUT THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND LIFT WITH INCREASING FLOW ALOFT TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. A BETTER CHANCE WILL BE ON FRIDAY
AS A WEAK UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THE DRYLINE WILL BE A PLAYER...BUT TO WHAT
EXTENT IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. ENSEMBLE MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
THAT THE STORM MODE WILL BE MULTICELLULAR GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND EXPECTED MODEST MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.
PRECIP CHANCES TAPER OFF A BIT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT COULD
INCREASE DEPENDING ON SUBTLE UPPER FEATURES ROTATING AROUND THE
BASE OF THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC UPPER LOW. STILL LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
SEE AN UPTICK IN RAIN CHANCES THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL GIVEN CLOUDS...MOISTURE...
AND EXPECTED OUTFLOW FROM THURSDAY`S STORMS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR
TEMPS TO BE A BIT ABOVE LATE MAY NORMS.
&&
.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&
$$
44
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