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000
FXUS64 KMAF 061901
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over S TX this morning will shift westward
across Mexico.  A broad upper ridge will remain across the southern
tier of states Tuesday as an upper low moves ashore the West Coast.
This low will slowly wobble eastward before lifting northward.
However in the mean time conditions are coming together with the
potential for a heavy rain event.

A weak cold front should move down into the area tonight and slowly
sag southward.  The front looks to hang up over the area early
Tuesday but may bridge southward as surface ridge pushes southward.
This means much of the area may not see a strong passage but the
wind may slowly come around to the east.

There is a heavy rain potential... there is good low level moisture
with dewpts in the 60s and even into low 70s south and east.  MAF
12z sounding had a PW of 1.57 inches and model soundings show high
PW will continue through Tuesday.  By noon storms had developed over
the Davis Mountains and these have spread east across the Trans
Pecos.  This is the location with the stronger theta-e axis.  Based
on model qpf this precip may expand north ward through the late
afternoon.  Additional rain should begin tonight mainly out west and
then spread eastward across the area as the front moves south.
Spent a long time considering a flash flood watch for tonight or
Tuesday but decided at least for tonight the heaviest rain should be
north of the area so will not issue.  Lea County and the Northern
Permian Basin will be closest to the area of concern for flash
flooding tonight... but should only get brushed with the heavier
rain.  However for tomorrow the potential still exists for heavy
rain over the eastern Permian Basin as a decent shortwave arrives
and provides upper support for heavy rain.  Do have mention of heavy
rain in forecast for northern CWA tonight and eastern CWA Tuesday
and will continue to highlight flash flood potential in the HWO.  A
Flash Flood Watch could still be needed Tuesday for the Eastern
Permian Basin but need to see how rain develops tonight.  Some rain
may linger into Wednesday but then after that pops should be on the
decrease and mainly confined to the higher elevations.

Temperatures are being affected by the increased moisture/cloud
cover as overnight lows are remaining much higher.  Tuesday should
be cooler with the weak front... but it could turn out much cooler
if it stays rainy/cloudy all day.  Will go below guidance Tuesday
and may still not be low enough.  Temperatures will slowly climb
Wednesday through the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  80  71  90  /  60  70  60  40
CARLSBAD NM                    72  84  69  92  /  50  20  40  30
DRYDEN TX                      76  88  75  91  /  50  50  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  85  71  89  /  50  40  50  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX              64  77  66  83  /  40  20  50  30
HOBBS NM                       67  79  66  89  /  70  30  40  30
MARFA TX                       66  82  66  85  /  70  40  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        74  82  70  89  /  60  60  60  30
ODESSA TX                      74  82  70  89  /  60  50  50  30
WINK TX                        74  87  71  93  /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72





000
FXUS64 KMAF 061733
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Several weak upper level disturbances will combine with a
southward moving cold front to produce scattered thunderstorms
across west Texas and southeast New Mexico the next 24 hours.
Confidence was high enough to include TEMPO and or PROB30 groups
at the terminals for thunderstorms. For now will keep conditions
in the VFR range, but will monitor. Cold front will result in a
wind shift and breezy north winds after 06z tonight at KCNM and
KHOB.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

There may be a period of MVFR ceilings at KMAF, but otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail.  Thunderstorms could affect all terminals
this afternoon and evening, id not beyond.  Will carry TSRA and
brief MVFR visibility in rain at all sites.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain and cooler temperatures are still on track to affect the
area over the next few days.

The upper ridge that was persistent over the area last week has now
flattened out across northern Mexico this morning. A theta-e axis
that led to widespread showers and thunderstorms west of the Pecos
River Sunday will expand east into the Permian Basin this
afternoon. The majority of the models develop precip across a good
bit of the CWA this afternoon. Temperatures will warm well into
the 80s and 90s today and combine with high amounts of moisture to
produce at least moderate instability. The severe weather threat
remains low, but a damaging wind gust can`t be ruled out. Heavy
rain will be a bigger concern due to slow storm motions and PWATs
climbing to near 2SD above normal. This threat will increase
overnight and Tuesday as a cold front slowly moves south into the
region. Upper level support will arrive later tonight as a
shortwave crosses the TX Panhandle. Northern portions of SE NM and
the northern Permian Basin look to see the best shot at heavy rain
and flooding. Will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now, but
one may need to be issued later today.

Temperatures look fairly cool for early July on Tuesday if
widespread clouds and rain verify. Highs a good 10 degrees below
normal are possible. The front lingers across the area into
Wednesday so the chance of rain and cooler temperatures will
continue. An developing upper ridge over the Southeast will slowly
build west helping to bring drier and warmer conditions late in the
week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29





000
FXUS64 KMAF 061052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There may be a period of MVFR ceilings at KMAF, but otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail.  Thunderstorms could affect all terminals
this afternoon and evening, id not beyond.  Will carry TSRA and
brief MVFR visibility in rain at all sites.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain and cooler temperatures are still on track to affect the
area over the next few days.

The upper ridge that was persistent over the area last week has now
flattened out across northern Mexico this morning. A theta-e axis
that led to widespread showers and thunderstorms west of the Pecos
River Sunday will expand east into the Permian Basin this
afternoon. The majority of the models develop precip across a good
bit of the CWA this afternoon. Temperatures will warm well into
the 80s and 90s today and combine with high amounts of moisture to
produce at least moderate instability. The severe weather threat
remains low, but a damaging wind gust can`t be ruled out. Heavy
rain will be a bigger concern due to slow storm motions and PWATs
climbing to near 2SD above normal. This threat will increase
overnight and Tuesday as a cold front slowly moves south into the
region. Upper level support will arrive later tonight as a
shortwave crosses the TX Panhandle. Northern portions of SE NM and
the northern Permian Basin look to see the best shot at heavy rain
and flooding. Will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now, but
one may need to be issued later today.

Temperatures look fairly cool for early July on Tuesday if
widespread clouds and rain verify. Highs a good 10 degrees below
normal are possible. The front lingers across the area into
Wednesday so the chance of rain and cooler temperatures will
continue. An developing upper ridge over the Southeast will slowly
build west helping to bring drier and warmer conditions late in the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  95  73  84  69  /  30  60  70  60
CARLSBAD NM                    96  71  86  67  /  30  50  20  40
DRYDEN TX                      95  74  90  73  /  40  50  50  40
FORT STOCKTON TX               93  71  87  69  /  40  50  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  65  79  64  /  30  40  20  50
HOBBS NM                       92  66  81  63  /  40  70  30  40
MARFA TX                       87  65  84  64  /  40  70  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        93  72  84  68  /  40  60  50  60
ODESSA TX                      93  72  84  68  /  40  60  50  50
WINK TX                        98  72  89  69  /  40  50  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29





000
FXUS64 KMAF 061052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There may be a period of MVFR ceilings at KMAF, but otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail.  Thunderstorms could affect all terminals
this afternoon and evening, id not beyond.  Will carry TSRA and
brief MVFR visibility in rain at all sites.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain and cooler temperatures are still on track to affect the
area over the next few days.

The upper ridge that was persistent over the area last week has now
flattened out across northern Mexico this morning. A theta-e axis
that led to widespread showers and thunderstorms west of the Pecos
River Sunday will expand east into the Permian Basin this
afternoon. The majority of the models develop precip across a good
bit of the CWA this afternoon. Temperatures will warm well into
the 80s and 90s today and combine with high amounts of moisture to
produce at least moderate instability. The severe weather threat
remains low, but a damaging wind gust can`t be ruled out. Heavy
rain will be a bigger concern due to slow storm motions and PWATs
climbing to near 2SD above normal. This threat will increase
overnight and Tuesday as a cold front slowly moves south into the
region. Upper level support will arrive later tonight as a
shortwave crosses the TX Panhandle. Northern portions of SE NM and
the northern Permian Basin look to see the best shot at heavy rain
and flooding. Will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now, but
one may need to be issued later today.

Temperatures look fairly cool for early July on Tuesday if
widespread clouds and rain verify. Highs a good 10 degrees below
normal are possible. The front lingers across the area into
Wednesday so the chance of rain and cooler temperatures will
continue. An developing upper ridge over the Southeast will slowly
build west helping to bring drier and warmer conditions late in the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  95  73  84  69  /  30  60  70  60
CARLSBAD NM                    96  71  86  67  /  30  50  20  40
DRYDEN TX                      95  74  90  73  /  40  50  50  40
FORT STOCKTON TX               93  71  87  69  /  40  50  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  65  79  64  /  30  40  20  50
HOBBS NM                       92  66  81  63  /  40  70  30  40
MARFA TX                       87  65  84  64  /  40  70  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        93  72  84  68  /  40  60  50  60
ODESSA TX                      93  72  84  68  /  40  60  50  50
WINK TX                        98  72  89  69  /  40  50  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29




000
FXUS64 KMAF 061052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There may be a period of MVFR ceilings at KMAF, but otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail.  Thunderstorms could affect all terminals
this afternoon and evening, id not beyond.  Will carry TSRA and
brief MVFR visibility in rain at all sites.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain and cooler temperatures are still on track to affect the
area over the next few days.

The upper ridge that was persistent over the area last week has now
flattened out across northern Mexico this morning. A theta-e axis
that led to widespread showers and thunderstorms west of the Pecos
River Sunday will expand east into the Permian Basin this
afternoon. The majority of the models develop precip across a good
bit of the CWA this afternoon. Temperatures will warm well into
the 80s and 90s today and combine with high amounts of moisture to
produce at least moderate instability. The severe weather threat
remains low, but a damaging wind gust can`t be ruled out. Heavy
rain will be a bigger concern due to slow storm motions and PWATs
climbing to near 2SD above normal. This threat will increase
overnight and Tuesday as a cold front slowly moves south into the
region. Upper level support will arrive later tonight as a
shortwave crosses the TX Panhandle. Northern portions of SE NM and
the northern Permian Basin look to see the best shot at heavy rain
and flooding. Will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now, but
one may need to be issued later today.

Temperatures look fairly cool for early July on Tuesday if
widespread clouds and rain verify. Highs a good 10 degrees below
normal are possible. The front lingers across the area into
Wednesday so the chance of rain and cooler temperatures will
continue. An developing upper ridge over the Southeast will slowly
build west helping to bring drier and warmer conditions late in the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  95  73  84  69  /  30  60  70  60
CARLSBAD NM                    96  71  86  67  /  30  50  20  40
DRYDEN TX                      95  74  90  73  /  40  50  50  40
FORT STOCKTON TX               93  71  87  69  /  40  50  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  65  79  64  /  30  40  20  50
HOBBS NM                       92  66  81  63  /  40  70  30  40
MARFA TX                       87  65  84  64  /  40  70  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        93  72  84  68  /  40  60  50  60
ODESSA TX                      93  72  84  68  /  40  60  50  50
WINK TX                        98  72  89  69  /  40  50  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29





000
FXUS64 KMAF 061052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
552 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

There may be a period of MVFR ceilings at KMAF, but otherwise VFR
conditions will prevail.  Thunderstorms could affect all terminals
this afternoon and evening, id not beyond.  Will carry TSRA and
brief MVFR visibility in rain at all sites.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain and cooler temperatures are still on track to affect the
area over the next few days.

The upper ridge that was persistent over the area last week has now
flattened out across northern Mexico this morning. A theta-e axis
that led to widespread showers and thunderstorms west of the Pecos
River Sunday will expand east into the Permian Basin this
afternoon. The majority of the models develop precip across a good
bit of the CWA this afternoon. Temperatures will warm well into
the 80s and 90s today and combine with high amounts of moisture to
produce at least moderate instability. The severe weather threat
remains low, but a damaging wind gust can`t be ruled out. Heavy
rain will be a bigger concern due to slow storm motions and PWATs
climbing to near 2SD above normal. This threat will increase
overnight and Tuesday as a cold front slowly moves south into the
region. Upper level support will arrive later tonight as a
shortwave crosses the TX Panhandle. Northern portions of SE NM and
the northern Permian Basin look to see the best shot at heavy rain
and flooding. Will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now, but
one may need to be issued later today.

Temperatures look fairly cool for early July on Tuesday if
widespread clouds and rain verify. Highs a good 10 degrees below
normal are possible. The front lingers across the area into
Wednesday so the chance of rain and cooler temperatures will
continue. An developing upper ridge over the Southeast will slowly
build west helping to bring drier and warmer conditions late in the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  95  73  84  69  /  30  60  70  60
CARLSBAD NM                    96  71  86  67  /  30  50  20  40
DRYDEN TX                      95  74  90  73  /  40  50  50  40
FORT STOCKTON TX               93  71  87  69  /  40  50  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  65  79  64  /  30  40  20  50
HOBBS NM                       92  66  81  63  /  40  70  30  40
MARFA TX                       87  65  84  64  /  40  70  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        93  72  84  68  /  40  60  50  60
ODESSA TX                      93  72  84  68  /  40  60  50  50
WINK TX                        98  72  89  69  /  40  50  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29




000
FXUS64 KMAF 060855
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Heavy rain and cooler temperatures are still on track to affect the
area over the next few days.

The upper ridge that was persistent over the area last week has now
flattened out across northern Mexico this morning. A theta-e axis
that led to widespread showers and thunderstorms west of the Pecos
River Sunday will expand east into the Permian Basin this
afternoon. The majority of the models develop precip across a good
bit of the CWA this afternoon. Temperatures will warm well into
the 80s and 90s today and combine with high amounts of moisture to
produce at least moderate instability. The severe weather threat
remains low, but a damaging wind gust can`t be ruled out. Heavy
rain will be a bigger concern due to slow storm motions and PWATs
climbing to near 2SD above normal. This threat will increase
overnight and Tuesday as a cold front slowly moves south into the
region. Upper level support will arrive later tonight as a
shortwave crosses the TX Panhandle. Northern portions of SE NM and
the northern Permian Basin look to see the best shot at heavy rain
and flooding. Will hold off on a Flash Flood Watch for now, but
one may need to be issued later today.

Temperatures look fairly cool for early July on Tuesday if
widespread clouds and rain verify. Highs a good 10 degrees below
normal are possible. The front lingers across the area into
Wednesday so the chance of rain and cooler temperatures will
continue. An developing upper ridge over the Southeast will slowly
build west helping to bring drier and warmer conditions late in the
week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  95  73  84  69  /  30  60  70  60
CARLSBAD NM                    96  71  86  67  /  30  50  20  40
DRYDEN TX                      95  74  90  73  /  40  50  50  40
FORT STOCKTON TX               93  71  87  69  /  40  50  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX              88  65  79  64  /  30  40  20  50
HOBBS NM                       92  66  81  63  /  40  70  30  40
MARFA TX                       87  65  84  64  /  40  70  40  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        93  72  84  68  /  40  60  50  60
ODESSA TX                      93  72  84  68  /  40  60  50  50
WINK TX                        98  72  89  69  /  40  50  30  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29




000
FXUS64 KMAF 060506
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions to prevail at all area terminals tonight and
Monday, until thunderstorms develop Monday afternoon.  Have added
TSRA to all terminals generally between 06/19z and 07/01Z, with
at least temporary MVFR conditions possible.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 060506
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1206 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Expect VFR conditions to prevail at all area terminals tonight and
Monday, until thunderstorms develop Monday afternoon.  Have added
TSRA to all terminals generally between 06/19z and 07/01Z, with
at least temporary MVFR conditions possible.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 052310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Sat imagery shows a widespread cu field across the region, w/area
radars showing diurnal convection generally west of the Pecos.
This activity appears to have peaked, and is expected to diminish
over the next few hours. On the other side of the Pecos, a 40+kt
LLJ is forecast to keep winds up most of the overnight hours. As
for stratus development, low-lvl RH fields suggest only KMAF is a
candidate, according to which model one considers. Because of
uncertainty, we`ll keep things VFR for now. Low-based cu
redevelopment looks likely early, w/widespread afternoon
convection likely.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Sub tropical ridge will remain over the area through the week.  The
center of the upper high was right over the area this morning and
will drift down to Mexico and wander around there for the next
couple of days.  A closed low will move ashore the CA coast by the
middle of the week but is not expected to displace the ridge.

Did have low clouds over parts of the area this morning that helped
o keep overnight temps elevated.  May see some stratus try to creep
into the east again tomorrow morning and expecting a continuation of
warmer lows.  High temperatures will remain below normal through
most of the week then begin increasing toward next weekend.  Still
looking at a front drifting down into the area early Tuesday... but
there is some disagreement as to how far south into the CWA it will
make it.  It may be determined by whether or not rain cooled air
pushes it southward.

Most of the storms yesterday were confined to over and adjacent to
the the higher elevations.  Scattered showers and storms have
already developed west of a Carlsbad to Fort Stockton line... these
should continue into the evening.  Storms chances begin to increase
Monday with the best chance being Monday night and Tuesday.  Expect
showers and storms to develop along the front and may also receive
some upper support as a shortwave comes down over the top of the
ridge.  Locally heavy rain possible.  Rain chances continue into
Wednesday then slowly decrease through the extended mainly being
confined to the higher elevations but may receive some support from
approaching West Coast low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  93  74  85  /  10  20  40  60
CARLSBAD NM                    71  95  72  87  /  30  40  50  30
DRYDEN TX                      74  95  74  93  /  30  40  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  93  72  90  /  30  50  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  86  67  75  /  50  30  40  30
HOBBS NM                       68  90  67  81  /  10  40  60  40
MARFA TX                       66  85  64  85  /  50  50  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  92  73  86  /  10  30  50  60
ODESSA TX                      74  92  73  86  /  10  30  50  50
WINK TX                        73  97  73  90  /  20  40  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44





000
FXUS64 KMAF 052310
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Sat imagery shows a widespread cu field across the region, w/area
radars showing diurnal convection generally west of the Pecos.
This activity appears to have peaked, and is expected to diminish
over the next few hours. On the other side of the Pecos, a 40+kt
LLJ is forecast to keep winds up most of the overnight hours. As
for stratus development, low-lvl RH fields suggest only KMAF is a
candidate, according to which model one considers. Because of
uncertainty, we`ll keep things VFR for now. Low-based cu
redevelopment looks likely early, w/widespread afternoon
convection likely.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 145 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Sub tropical ridge will remain over the area through the week.  The
center of the upper high was right over the area this morning and
will drift down to Mexico and wander around there for the next
couple of days.  A closed low will move ashore the CA coast by the
middle of the week but is not expected to displace the ridge.

Did have low clouds over parts of the area this morning that helped
o keep overnight temps elevated.  May see some stratus try to creep
into the east again tomorrow morning and expecting a continuation of
warmer lows.  High temperatures will remain below normal through
most of the week then begin increasing toward next weekend.  Still
looking at a front drifting down into the area early Tuesday... but
there is some disagreement as to how far south into the CWA it will
make it.  It may be determined by whether or not rain cooled air
pushes it southward.

Most of the storms yesterday were confined to over and adjacent to
the the higher elevations.  Scattered showers and storms have
already developed west of a Carlsbad to Fort Stockton line... these
should continue into the evening.  Storms chances begin to increase
Monday with the best chance being Monday night and Tuesday.  Expect
showers and storms to develop along the front and may also receive
some upper support as a shortwave comes down over the top of the
ridge.  Locally heavy rain possible.  Rain chances continue into
Wednesday then slowly decrease through the extended mainly being
confined to the higher elevations but may receive some support from
approaching West Coast low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  93  74  85  /  10  20  40  60
CARLSBAD NM                    71  95  72  87  /  30  40  50  30
DRYDEN TX                      74  95  74  93  /  30  40  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  93  72  90  /  30  50  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX              68  86  67  75  /  50  30  40  30
HOBBS NM                       68  90  67  81  /  10  40  60  40
MARFA TX                       66  85  64  85  /  50  50  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  92  73  86  /  10  30  50  60
ODESSA TX                      74  92  73  86  /  10  30  50  50
WINK TX                        73  97  73  90  /  20  40  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44




000
FXUS64 KMAF 051845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
145 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Sub tropical ridge will remain over the area through the week.  The
center of the upper high was right over the area this morning and
will drift down to Mexico and wander around there for the next
couple of days.  A closed low will move ashore the CA coast by the
middle of the week but is not expected to displace the ridge.

Did have low clouds over parts of the area this morning that helped
o keep overnight temps elevated.  May see some stratus try to creep
into the east again tomorrow morning and expecting a continuation of
warmer lows.  High temperatures will remain below normal through
most of the week then begin increasing toward next weekend.  Still
looking at a front drifting down into the area early Tuesday... but
there is some disagreement as to how far south into the CWA it will
make it.  It may be determined by whether or not rain cooled air
pushes it southward.

Most of the storms yesterday were confined to over and adjacent to
the the higher elevations.  Scattered showers and storms have
already developed west of a Carlsbad to Fort Stockton line... these
should continue into the evening.  Storms chances begin to increase
Monday with the best chance being Monday night and Tuesday.  Expect
showers and storms to develop along the front and may also receive
some upper support as a shortwave comes down over the top of the
ridge.  Locally heavy rain possible.  Rain chances continue into
Wednesday then slowly decrease through the extended mainly being
confined to the higher elevations but may receive some support from
approaching West Coast low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  94  73  84  /  10  20  50  60
CARLSBAD NM                    72  96  71  83  /  30  40  50  30
DRYDEN TX                      73  93  74  88  /  30  40  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  93  70  86  /  30  40  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  87  66  74  /  50  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                       68  92  66  81  /  10  40  60  40
MARFA TX                       65  86  66  81  /  40  50  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        72  93  72  85  /  10  30  50  60
ODESSA TX                      73  93  72  85  /  10  30  50  50
WINK TX                        72  97  72  88  /  20  40  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72




000
FXUS64 KMAF 051845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
145 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Sub tropical ridge will remain over the area through the week.  The
center of the upper high was right over the area this morning and
will drift down to Mexico and wander around there for the next
couple of days.  A closed low will move ashore the CA coast by the
middle of the week but is not expected to displace the ridge.

Did have low clouds over parts of the area this morning that helped
o keep overnight temps elevated.  May see some stratus try to creep
into the east again tomorrow morning and expecting a continuation of
warmer lows.  High temperatures will remain below normal through
most of the week then begin increasing toward next weekend.  Still
looking at a front drifting down into the area early Tuesday... but
there is some disagreement as to how far south into the CWA it will
make it.  It may be determined by whether or not rain cooled air
pushes it southward.

Most of the storms yesterday were confined to over and adjacent to
the the higher elevations.  Scattered showers and storms have
already developed west of a Carlsbad to Fort Stockton line... these
should continue into the evening.  Storms chances begin to increase
Monday with the best chance being Monday night and Tuesday.  Expect
showers and storms to develop along the front and may also receive
some upper support as a shortwave comes down over the top of the
ridge.  Locally heavy rain possible.  Rain chances continue into
Wednesday then slowly decrease through the extended mainly being
confined to the higher elevations but may receive some support from
approaching West Coast low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  94  73  84  /  10  20  50  60
CARLSBAD NM                    72  96  71  83  /  30  40  50  30
DRYDEN TX                      73  93  74  88  /  30  40  30  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               70  93  70  86  /  30  40  50  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  87  66  74  /  50  30  30  30
HOBBS NM                       68  92  66  81  /  10  40  60  40
MARFA TX                       65  86  66  81  /  40  50  50  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        72  93  72  85  /  10  30  50  60
ODESSA TX                      73  93  72  85  /  10  30  50  50
WINK TX                        72  97  72  88  /  20  40  50  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72





000
FXUS64 KMAF 051732
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level disturbance and surface trough will combine to produce
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening for areas
mainly south and west of the Pecos River. Confidence was high
enough to include a TEMPO group for VFR conditions in thunderstorms
at the KCNM, KPEQ and KFST terminals between 22z Sunday and 02z
Monday. Will continue to monitor the latest trends. South to
southeast winds of generally 10 to 20 mph and gusty at times are
expected. There is some risk of MVFR ceilings developing at some
of the terminals after 12z Monday but confidence was not high
enough at this time to mention. Will reevaluate for next package.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings possible at KMAF
between 05/12Z and 05/15Z, VFR conditions are expected throughout
the forecast period.  Thunderstorms will develop over the higher
terrain this afternoon and spread slowly east.  All terminals,
except KMAF, could see TSRA after 06/01Z, but the probability is
too low for any site so will forego inclusion this issuance.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Things are all quiet tonight across most of Texas and NM. That
won`t last too long though as a cold front brings good rain
chances and continued below normal temperatures.

The upper ridge that has given us mostly dry conditions over the
last couple of days continues to flatten and sink into northern
Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms developed Saturday afternoon along
a theta-e axis that has set up from the Big Bend north into NM. We
will see a similar set-up today with showers and storms spreading a
little further east, possibly to near the Pecos River by late
afternoon. Plenty of moisture remains in place so heavy rain and
even some localized flooding will be possible, especially in the
mountains. Similar conditions are expected Monday afternoon.

The focus then shifts to a cold front that will enter the TX
Panhandle tomorrow. Thunderstorms will develop along the front
and propel it south into our area Monday night. A few severe
storms are not out of the question, but instability will remain
limited by the time storms arrive. Heavy rain will be of greater
concern though as PWATs climb to +2SD with storm motions of only
10 to 15 kts. The front will remain in the area both Tuesday and
Wednesday so will keep storm chances fairly high. A flash flood
watch may be needed in upcoming forecasts.

The upper ridge is then forecast to strengthen over the area late
this week. If we see widespread heavy rainfall across the Southern
Plains this week, the ridge may not build as strong as the models
indicate.

Even though today and Monday will be the warmer than we have seen in
over a week, temperatures will stay below normal. By Tuesday and
Wednesday, the cold front will make its way into the region with
widespread clouds and rain. Look for temps to be well below normal
during this period. We dry out and warm back up as the ridge builds
later in the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29





000
FXUS64 KMAF 051732
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level disturbance and surface trough will combine to produce
scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening for areas
mainly south and west of the Pecos River. Confidence was high
enough to include a TEMPO group for VFR conditions in thunderstorms
at the KCNM, KPEQ and KFST terminals between 22z Sunday and 02z
Monday. Will continue to monitor the latest trends. South to
southeast winds of generally 10 to 20 mph and gusty at times are
expected. There is some risk of MVFR ceilings developing at some
of the terminals after 12z Monday but confidence was not high
enough at this time to mention. Will reevaluate for next package.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 608 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings possible at KMAF
between 05/12Z and 05/15Z, VFR conditions are expected throughout
the forecast period.  Thunderstorms will develop over the higher
terrain this afternoon and spread slowly east.  All terminals,
except KMAF, could see TSRA after 06/01Z, but the probability is
too low for any site so will forego inclusion this issuance.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Things are all quiet tonight across most of Texas and NM. That
won`t last too long though as a cold front brings good rain
chances and continued below normal temperatures.

The upper ridge that has given us mostly dry conditions over the
last couple of days continues to flatten and sink into northern
Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms developed Saturday afternoon along
a theta-e axis that has set up from the Big Bend north into NM. We
will see a similar set-up today with showers and storms spreading a
little further east, possibly to near the Pecos River by late
afternoon. Plenty of moisture remains in place so heavy rain and
even some localized flooding will be possible, especially in the
mountains. Similar conditions are expected Monday afternoon.

The focus then shifts to a cold front that will enter the TX
Panhandle tomorrow. Thunderstorms will develop along the front
and propel it south into our area Monday night. A few severe
storms are not out of the question, but instability will remain
limited by the time storms arrive. Heavy rain will be of greater
concern though as PWATs climb to +2SD with storm motions of only
10 to 15 kts. The front will remain in the area both Tuesday and
Wednesday so will keep storm chances fairly high. A flash flood
watch may be needed in upcoming forecasts.

The upper ridge is then forecast to strengthen over the area late
this week. If we see widespread heavy rainfall across the Southern
Plains this week, the ridge may not build as strong as the models
indicate.

Even though today and Monday will be the warmer than we have seen in
over a week, temperatures will stay below normal. By Tuesday and
Wednesday, the cold front will make its way into the region with
widespread clouds and rain. Look for temps to be well below normal
during this period. We dry out and warm back up as the ridge builds
later in the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29




000
FXUS64 KMAF 051108
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
608 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings possible at KMAF
between 05/12Z and 05/15Z, VFR conditions are expected throughout
the forecast period.  Thunderstorms will develop over the higher
terrain this afternoon and spread slowly east.  All terminals,
except KMAF, could see TSRA after 06/01Z, but the probability is
too low for any site so will forego inclusion this issuance.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Things are all quiet tonight across most of Texas and NM. That
won`t last too long though as a cold front brings good rain
chances and continued below normal temperatures.

The upper ridge that has given us mostly dry conditions over the
last couple of days continues to flatten and sink into northern
Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms developed Saturday afternoon along
a theta-e axis that has set up from the Big Bend north into NM. We
will see a similar set-up today with showers and storms spreading a
little further east, possibly to near the Pecos River by late
afternoon. Plenty of moisture remains in place so heavy rain and
even some localized flooding will be possible, especially in the
mountains. Similar conditions are expected Monday afternoon.

The focus then shifts to a cold front that will enter the TX
Panhandle tomorrow. Thunderstorms will develop along the front
and propel it south into our area Monday night. A few severe
storms are not out of the question, but instability will remain
limited by the time storms arrive. Heavy rain will be of greater
concern though as PWATs climb to +2SD with storm motions of only
10 to 15 kts. The front will remain in the area both Tuesday and
Wednesday so will keep storm chances fairly high. A flash flood
watch may be needed in upcoming forecasts.

The upper ridge is then forecast to strengthen over the area late
this week. If we see widespread heavy rainfall across the Southern
Plains this week, the ridge may not build as strong as the models
indicate.

Even though today and Monday will be the warmer than we have seen in
over a week, temperatures will stay below normal. By Tuesday and
Wednesday, the cold front will make its way into the region with
widespread clouds and rain. Look for temps to be well below normal
during this period. We dry out and warm back up as the ridge builds
later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  74  94  73  /  10  10  20  50
CARLSBAD NM                    94  72  96  71  /  20  30  40  50
DRYDEN TX                      95  73  93  74  /  20  30  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               91  70  93  70  /  20  30  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  67  87  66  /  40  50  30  30
HOBBS NM                       90  68  92  66  /  10  10  40  60
MARFA TX                       86  65  86  66  /  60  40  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        92  72  93  72  /  10  10  30  50
ODESSA TX                      92  73  93  72  /  10  10  30  50
WINK TX                        95  72  97  72  /  10  20  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29




000
FXUS64 KMAF 050859
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
359 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Things are all quiet tonight across most of Texas and NM. That
won`t last too long though as a cold front brings good rain
chances and continued below normal temperatures.

The upper ridge that has given us mostly dry conditions over the
last couple of days continues to flatten and sink into northern
Mexico. Showers and thunderstorms developed Saturday afternoon along
a theta-e axis that has set up from the Big Bend north into NM. We
will see a similar set-up today with showers and storms spreading a
little further east, possibly to near the Pecos River by late
afternoon. Plenty of moisture remains in place so heavy rain and
even some localized flooding will be possible, especially in the
mountains. Similar conditions are expected Monday afternoon.

The focus then shifts to a cold front that will enter the TX
Panhandle tomorrow. Thunderstorms will develop along the front
and propel it south into our area Monday night. A few severe
storms are not out of the question, but instability will remain
limited by the time storms arrive. Heavy rain will be of greater
concern though as PWATs climb to +2SD with storm motions of only
10 to 15 kts. The front will remain in the area both Tuesday and
Wednesday so will keep storm chances fairly high. A flash flood
watch may be needed in upcoming forecasts.

The upper ridge is then forecast to strengthen over the area late
this week. If we see widespread heavy rainfall across the Southern
Plains this week, the ridge may not build as strong as the models
indicate.

Even though today and Monday will be the warmer than we have seen in
over a week, temperatures will stay below normal. By Tuesday and
Wednesday, the cold front will make its way into the region with
widespread clouds and rain. Look for temps to be well below normal
during this period. We dry out and warm back up as the ridge builds
later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  93  74  94  73  /  10  10  20  50
CARLSBAD NM                    94  72  96  71  /  20  30  40  50
DRYDEN TX                      95  73  93  74  /  20  30  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               91  70  93  70  /  20  30  40  50
GUADALUPE PASS TX              85  67  87  66  /  40  50  30  30
HOBBS NM                       90  68  92  66  /  10  10  40  60
MARFA TX                       86  65  86  66  /  60  40  50  50
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        92  72  93  72  /  10  10  30  50
ODESSA TX                      92  73  93  72  /  10  10  30  50
WINK TX                        95  72  97  72  /  10  20  40  50

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29




000
FXUS64 KMAF 050451
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals tonight and Sunday,
except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings at KMAF, generally
between 05/12Z and 05/15Z. Thunderstorms will stay west of the
terminals this afternoon, however KCNM, and perhaps KPEQ and
KFST may need TSRA added to the forecast after 06/00Z.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 050451
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1151 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals tonight and Sunday,
except for a brief period of MVFR ceilings at KMAF, generally
between 05/12Z and 05/15Z. Thunderstorms will stay west of the
terminals this afternoon, however KCNM, and perhaps KPEQ and
KFST may need TSRA added to the forecast after 06/00Z.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 050212
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
912 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

KMAF radar and satellite shows convection has largely diminished
w/loss of diurnal heating, and trends/00Z NAM suggest anything
overnight will be confined to the Presidio Valley...if that. We`ll
do a quick update to pare back coverage/POPs 1st period, and
adjust other parameters as necessary.  Happy fireworks.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
slide SE into Northern Mexico by Sunday.  The center of this ridge
will wobble around Mexico for a few days before returning northward
to TX and NM.  So look for increasing temperatures and decreasing
rain chances in the extended.

Temperatures will continue below normal again Sunday but should warm
to near normal on Monday.  Cooler temps expected Tuesday with highs
back into the 80s as a cold front pushes down into the area and
increased rain chances.  Warmer temps return later in the week.

Have been expecting afternoon/evening storms over the higher
elevations again today.  These started early today with some on radar
by noon... will carry highest/chance pops over Marfa Plateau... Davis
Mountains... and Big Bend.  However satellite indicates a dense field
of cu covers the whole CWA.  Looking outside see tcu developing so
have expanded isolated pops eastward across the rest of the Permian
Basin.  Sunday and Sunday night the higher elevations will again be
favored for storm activity but it may spill onto the plains.  Models
indicating precip may be a more widespread Monday.  Monday night and
Tuesday looking like the best chance this week for rain as a cold
front sags southward into the area.  By Wednesday most of the
rain should be shifting back to the west and closer to the
mountains.  With increasing PW and slow moving storms may concern
with these storms will be locally heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75  93  74  95  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                    72  96  73  96  /  10  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                      73  93  73  95  /  10  20  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  93  71  95  /  10  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  88  68  86  /  10  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                       68  92  70  94  /  10  10  10  30
MARFA TX                       65  86  64  87  /  10  50  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  93  72  94  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                      72  92  73  94  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                        74  97  73  98  /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44





000
FXUS64 KMAF 050212
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
912 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

KMAF radar and satellite shows convection has largely diminished
w/loss of diurnal heating, and trends/00Z NAM suggest anything
overnight will be confined to the Presidio Valley...if that. We`ll
do a quick update to pare back coverage/POPs 1st period, and
adjust other parameters as necessary.  Happy fireworks.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
slide SE into Northern Mexico by Sunday.  The center of this ridge
will wobble around Mexico for a few days before returning northward
to TX and NM.  So look for increasing temperatures and decreasing
rain chances in the extended.

Temperatures will continue below normal again Sunday but should warm
to near normal on Monday.  Cooler temps expected Tuesday with highs
back into the 80s as a cold front pushes down into the area and
increased rain chances.  Warmer temps return later in the week.

Have been expecting afternoon/evening storms over the higher
elevations again today.  These started early today with some on radar
by noon... will carry highest/chance pops over Marfa Plateau... Davis
Mountains... and Big Bend.  However satellite indicates a dense field
of cu covers the whole CWA.  Looking outside see tcu developing so
have expanded isolated pops eastward across the rest of the Permian
Basin.  Sunday and Sunday night the higher elevations will again be
favored for storm activity but it may spill onto the plains.  Models
indicating precip may be a more widespread Monday.  Monday night and
Tuesday looking like the best chance this week for rain as a cold
front sags southward into the area.  By Wednesday most of the
rain should be shifting back to the west and closer to the
mountains.  With increasing PW and slow moving storms may concern
with these storms will be locally heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75  93  74  95  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                    72  96  73  96  /  10  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                      73  93  73  95  /  10  20  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  93  71  95  /  10  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  88  68  86  /  10  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                       68  92  70  94  /  10  10  10  30
MARFA TX                       65  86  64  87  /  10  50  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  93  72  94  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                      72  92  73  94  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                        74  97  73  98  /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44





000
FXUS64 KMAF 050212
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
912 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

KMAF radar and satellite shows convection has largely diminished
w/loss of diurnal heating, and trends/00Z NAM suggest anything
overnight will be confined to the Presidio Valley...if that. We`ll
do a quick update to pare back coverage/POPs 1st period, and
adjust other parameters as necessary.  Happy fireworks.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
slide SE into Northern Mexico by Sunday.  The center of this ridge
will wobble around Mexico for a few days before returning northward
to TX and NM.  So look for increasing temperatures and decreasing
rain chances in the extended.

Temperatures will continue below normal again Sunday but should warm
to near normal on Monday.  Cooler temps expected Tuesday with highs
back into the 80s as a cold front pushes down into the area and
increased rain chances.  Warmer temps return later in the week.

Have been expecting afternoon/evening storms over the higher
elevations again today.  These started early today with some on radar
by noon... will carry highest/chance pops over Marfa Plateau... Davis
Mountains... and Big Bend.  However satellite indicates a dense field
of cu covers the whole CWA.  Looking outside see tcu developing so
have expanded isolated pops eastward across the rest of the Permian
Basin.  Sunday and Sunday night the higher elevations will again be
favored for storm activity but it may spill onto the plains.  Models
indicating precip may be a more widespread Monday.  Monday night and
Tuesday looking like the best chance this week for rain as a cold
front sags southward into the area.  By Wednesday most of the
rain should be shifting back to the west and closer to the
mountains.  With increasing PW and slow moving storms may concern
with these storms will be locally heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  75  93  74  95  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                    72  96  73  96  /  10  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                      73  93  73  95  /  10  20  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               73  93  71  95  /  10  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  88  68  86  /  10  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                       68  92  70  94  /  10  10  10  30
MARFA TX                       65  86  64  87  /  10  50  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        73  93  72  94  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                      72  92  73  94  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                        74  97  73  98  /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44




000
FXUS64 KMAF 050000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
700 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Southeast winds will continue, with gusts diminishing after
sunset this evening, and speeds remaining aob 12kt. Exceptions
are KMAF and KFST, where gusts to around 20kt are possible Sunday
afternoon. Models are hinting at yet another patchy MVFR deck
developing after 12Z Sunday morning that could affect area TAF
sites, but at this time have only included a TEMPO for MVFR
ceilings at KMAF from 12-15Z where confidence is highest.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
slide SE into Northern Mexico by Sunday.  The center of this ridge
will wobble around Mexico for a few days before returning northward
to TX and NM.  So look for increasing temperatures and decreasing
rain chances in the extended.

Temperatures will continue below normal again Sunday but should warm
to near normal on Monday.  Cooler temps expected Tuesday with highs
back into the 80s as a cold front pushes down into the area and
increased rain chances.  Warmer temps return later in the week.

Have been expecting afternoon/evening storms over the higher
elevations again today.  These started early today with some on radar
by noon... will carry highest/chance pops over Marfa Plateau... Davis
Mountains... and Big Bend.  However satellite indicates a dense field
of cu covers the whole CWA.  Looking outside see tcu developing so
have expanded isolated pops eastward across the rest of the Permian
Basin.  Sunday and Sunday night the higher elevations will again be
favored for storm activity but it may spill onto the plains.  Models
indicating precip may be a more widespread Monday.  Monday night and
Tuesday looking like the best chance this week for rain as a cold
front sags southward into the area.  By Wednesday most of the
rain should be shifting back to the west and closer to the
mountains.  With increasing PW and slow moving storms may concern
with these storms will be locally heavy rain.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 050000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
700 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Southeast winds will continue, with gusts diminishing after
sunset this evening, and speeds remaining aob 12kt. Exceptions
are KMAF and KFST, where gusts to around 20kt are possible Sunday
afternoon. Models are hinting at yet another patchy MVFR deck
developing after 12Z Sunday morning that could affect area TAF
sites, but at this time have only included a TEMPO for MVFR
ceilings at KMAF from 12-15Z where confidence is highest.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
slide SE into Northern Mexico by Sunday.  The center of this ridge
will wobble around Mexico for a few days before returning northward
to TX and NM.  So look for increasing temperatures and decreasing
rain chances in the extended.

Temperatures will continue below normal again Sunday but should warm
to near normal on Monday.  Cooler temps expected Tuesday with highs
back into the 80s as a cold front pushes down into the area and
increased rain chances.  Warmer temps return later in the week.

Have been expecting afternoon/evening storms over the higher
elevations again today.  These started early today with some on radar
by noon... will carry highest/chance pops over Marfa Plateau... Davis
Mountains... and Big Bend.  However satellite indicates a dense field
of cu covers the whole CWA.  Looking outside see tcu developing so
have expanded isolated pops eastward across the rest of the Permian
Basin.  Sunday and Sunday night the higher elevations will again be
favored for storm activity but it may spill onto the plains.  Models
indicating precip may be a more widespread Monday.  Monday night and
Tuesday looking like the best chance this week for rain as a cold
front sags southward into the area.  By Wednesday most of the
rain should be shifting back to the west and closer to the
mountains.  With increasing PW and slow moving storms may concern
with these storms will be locally heavy rain.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 050000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
700 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Southeast winds will continue, with gusts diminishing after
sunset this evening, and speeds remaining aob 12kt. Exceptions
are KMAF and KFST, where gusts to around 20kt are possible Sunday
afternoon. Models are hinting at yet another patchy MVFR deck
developing after 12Z Sunday morning that could affect area TAF
sites, but at this time have only included a TEMPO for MVFR
ceilings at KMAF from 12-15Z where confidence is highest.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
slide SE into Northern Mexico by Sunday.  The center of this ridge
will wobble around Mexico for a few days before returning northward
to TX and NM.  So look for increasing temperatures and decreasing
rain chances in the extended.

Temperatures will continue below normal again Sunday but should warm
to near normal on Monday.  Cooler temps expected Tuesday with highs
back into the 80s as a cold front pushes down into the area and
increased rain chances.  Warmer temps return later in the week.

Have been expecting afternoon/evening storms over the higher
elevations again today.  These started early today with some on radar
by noon... will carry highest/chance pops over Marfa Plateau... Davis
Mountains... and Big Bend.  However satellite indicates a dense field
of cu covers the whole CWA.  Looking outside see tcu developing so
have expanded isolated pops eastward across the rest of the Permian
Basin.  Sunday and Sunday night the higher elevations will again be
favored for storm activity but it may spill onto the plains.  Models
indicating precip may be a more widespread Monday.  Monday night and
Tuesday looking like the best chance this week for rain as a cold
front sags southward into the area.  By Wednesday most of the
rain should be shifting back to the west and closer to the
mountains.  With increasing PW and slow moving storms may concern
with these storms will be locally heavy rain.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 050000
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
700 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Southeast winds will continue, with gusts diminishing after
sunset this evening, and speeds remaining aob 12kt. Exceptions
are KMAF and KFST, where gusts to around 20kt are possible Sunday
afternoon. Models are hinting at yet another patchy MVFR deck
developing after 12Z Sunday morning that could affect area TAF
sites, but at this time have only included a TEMPO for MVFR
ceilings at KMAF from 12-15Z where confidence is highest.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 153 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
slide SE into Northern Mexico by Sunday.  The center of this ridge
will wobble around Mexico for a few days before returning northward
to TX and NM.  So look for increasing temperatures and decreasing
rain chances in the extended.

Temperatures will continue below normal again Sunday but should warm
to near normal on Monday.  Cooler temps expected Tuesday with highs
back into the 80s as a cold front pushes down into the area and
increased rain chances.  Warmer temps return later in the week.

Have been expecting afternoon/evening storms over the higher
elevations again today.  These started early today with some on radar
by noon... will carry highest/chance pops over Marfa Plateau... Davis
Mountains... and Big Bend.  However satellite indicates a dense field
of cu covers the whole CWA.  Looking outside see tcu developing so
have expanded isolated pops eastward across the rest of the Permian
Basin.  Sunday and Sunday night the higher elevations will again be
favored for storm activity but it may spill onto the plains.  Models
indicating precip may be a more widespread Monday.  Monday night and
Tuesday looking like the best chance this week for rain as a cold
front sags southward into the area.  By Wednesday most of the
rain should be shifting back to the west and closer to the
mountains.  With increasing PW and slow moving storms may concern
with these storms will be locally heavy rain.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 041853
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
153 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
slide SE into Northern Mexico by Sunday.  The center of this ridge
will wobble around Mexico for a few days before returning northward
to TX and NM.  So look for increasing temperatures and decreasing
rain chances in the extended.

Temperatures will continue below normal again Sunday but should warm
to near normal on Monday.  Cooler temps expected Tuesday with highs
back into the 80s as a cold front pushes down into the area and
increased rain chances.  Warmer temps return later in the week.

Have been expecting afternoon/evening storms over the higher
elevations again today.  These started early today with some on radar
by noon... will carry highest/chance pops over Marfa Plateau... Davis
Mountains... and Big Bend.  However satellite indicates a dense field
of cu covers the whole CWA.  Looking outside see tcu developing so
have expanded isolated pops eastward across the rest of the Permian
Basin.  Sunday and Sunday night the higher elevations will again be
favored for storm activity but it may spill onto the plains.  Models
indicating precip may be a more widespread Monday.  Monday night and
Tuesday looking like the best chance this week for rain as a cold
front sags southward into the area.  By Wednesday most of the
rain should be shifting back to the west and closer to the
mountains.  With increasing PW and slow moving storms may concern
with these storms will be locally heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  93  74  95  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                    69  96  73  96  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                      74  93  73  95  /  20  20  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  93  71  95  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  88  68  86  /  20  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                       67  92  70  94  /  10  10  10  30
MARFA TX                       63  86  64  87  /  40  50  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  93  72  94  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                      71  92  73  94  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                        72  97  73  98  /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72





000
FXUS64 KMAF 041853
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
153 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
slide SE into Northern Mexico by Sunday.  The center of this ridge
will wobble around Mexico for a few days before returning northward
to TX and NM.  So look for increasing temperatures and decreasing
rain chances in the extended.

Temperatures will continue below normal again Sunday but should warm
to near normal on Monday.  Cooler temps expected Tuesday with highs
back into the 80s as a cold front pushes down into the area and
increased rain chances.  Warmer temps return later in the week.

Have been expecting afternoon/evening storms over the higher
elevations again today.  These started early today with some on radar
by noon... will carry highest/chance pops over Marfa Plateau... Davis
Mountains... and Big Bend.  However satellite indicates a dense field
of cu covers the whole CWA.  Looking outside see tcu developing so
have expanded isolated pops eastward across the rest of the Permian
Basin.  Sunday and Sunday night the higher elevations will again be
favored for storm activity but it may spill onto the plains.  Models
indicating precip may be a more widespread Monday.  Monday night and
Tuesday looking like the best chance this week for rain as a cold
front sags southward into the area.  By Wednesday most of the
rain should be shifting back to the west and closer to the
mountains.  With increasing PW and slow moving storms may concern
with these storms will be locally heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  93  74  95  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                    69  96  73  96  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                      74  93  73  95  /  20  20  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  93  71  95  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  88  68  86  /  20  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                       67  92  70  94  /  10  10  10  30
MARFA TX                       63  86  64  87  /  40  50  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  93  72  94  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                      71  92  73  94  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                        72  97  73  98  /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72





000
FXUS64 KMAF 041853
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
153 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
slide SE into Northern Mexico by Sunday.  The center of this ridge
will wobble around Mexico for a few days before returning northward
to TX and NM.  So look for increasing temperatures and decreasing
rain chances in the extended.

Temperatures will continue below normal again Sunday but should warm
to near normal on Monday.  Cooler temps expected Tuesday with highs
back into the 80s as a cold front pushes down into the area and
increased rain chances.  Warmer temps return later in the week.

Have been expecting afternoon/evening storms over the higher
elevations again today.  These started early today with some on radar
by noon... will carry highest/chance pops over Marfa Plateau... Davis
Mountains... and Big Bend.  However satellite indicates a dense field
of cu covers the whole CWA.  Looking outside see tcu developing so
have expanded isolated pops eastward across the rest of the Permian
Basin.  Sunday and Sunday night the higher elevations will again be
favored for storm activity but it may spill onto the plains.  Models
indicating precip may be a more widespread Monday.  Monday night and
Tuesday looking like the best chance this week for rain as a cold
front sags southward into the area.  By Wednesday most of the
rain should be shifting back to the west and closer to the
mountains.  With increasing PW and slow moving storms may concern
with these storms will be locally heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  93  74  95  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                    69  96  73  96  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                      74  93  73  95  /  20  20  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  93  71  95  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  88  68  86  /  20  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                       67  92  70  94  /  10  10  10  30
MARFA TX                       63  86  64  87  /  40  50  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  93  72  94  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                      71  92  73  94  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                        72  97  73  98  /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72




000
FXUS64 KMAF 041853
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
153 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the 4 corners region this morning will
slide SE into Northern Mexico by Sunday.  The center of this ridge
will wobble around Mexico for a few days before returning northward
to TX and NM.  So look for increasing temperatures and decreasing
rain chances in the extended.

Temperatures will continue below normal again Sunday but should warm
to near normal on Monday.  Cooler temps expected Tuesday with highs
back into the 80s as a cold front pushes down into the area and
increased rain chances.  Warmer temps return later in the week.

Have been expecting afternoon/evening storms over the higher
elevations again today.  These started early today with some on radar
by noon... will carry highest/chance pops over Marfa Plateau... Davis
Mountains... and Big Bend.  However satellite indicates a dense field
of cu covers the whole CWA.  Looking outside see tcu developing so
have expanded isolated pops eastward across the rest of the Permian
Basin.  Sunday and Sunday night the higher elevations will again be
favored for storm activity but it may spill onto the plains.  Models
indicating precip may be a more widespread Monday.  Monday night and
Tuesday looking like the best chance this week for rain as a cold
front sags southward into the area.  By Wednesday most of the
rain should be shifting back to the west and closer to the
mountains.  With increasing PW and slow moving storms may concern
with these storms will be locally heavy rain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  74  93  74  95  /  10  10  10  30
CARLSBAD NM                    69  96  73  96  /  20  20  30  30
DRYDEN TX                      74  93  73  95  /  20  20  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX               72  93  71  95  /  20  20  20  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX              67  88  68  86  /  20  40  40  30
HOBBS NM                       67  92  70  94  /  10  10  10  30
MARFA TX                       63  86  64  87  /  40  50  30  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        71  93  72  94  /  10  10  10  30
ODESSA TX                      71  92  73  94  /  10  10  10  30
WINK TX                        72  97  73  98  /  10  20  20  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72




000
FXUS64 KMAF 041655
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1155 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Southeast upslope will keep thunderstorms confined to the
mountains the next 24 hours. MVFR ceilings are expected to
develop on or after 12z Sunday at KMAF, KINK, KHOB and continue
through at least mid Sunday morning.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain today,
but should remain south and west of all area terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Increasing rain chances early next week with temperatures staying
mostly below normal for early July.

Morning analysis shows an upper ridge beginning to weaken to our
west and a large scale trough stretched over the eastern U.S. At the
surface, moist flow continues off the Gulf and will eventually help
give us a good chance for rain once a cold front arrives. More on
that later. For the second night in a row we are watching a dying
thunderstorm complex move south out of the TX Panhandle. A few of
these storms may make it into northern Lea Co or the northern
Permian Basin later this morning. More likely to happen, an
outflow boundary from these storms will settle across the
northwestern CWA. This could help spark a few showers and storms
later this afternoon. The better chance for rain today though will
be over the higher terrain associated with a developing theta-e
axis. This axis expands slightly east on Sunday with a better
chance of rain spreading into the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM.

The upper ridge sinks south into northern Mexico Monday while a cold
front enters the TX Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front Monday evening with one or
more complexes moving south across the area overnight into Tuesday
morning. The frontal boundary may linger across the region Tuesday
into Wednesday so will keep a good chance for rain in the
forecast. PWATs will climb over 1.5" and storm motions look fairly
slow so heavy rainfall will be a good possibility. Models show the
upper ridge strengthening over the region by the end of the week.
If we see widespread rainfall this week, the ridge may not build
as strong as indicated.

Temperatures have had a hard time warming too much due to all the
green vegetation across area. Will continue the trend of forecasting
near or below guidance this weekend. Monday through Wednesday will
be tricky due to the possibility of cloudcover and rain. May need to
lower temps even more if we see widespread rainfall. Temperatures
will warm back to near normal by the end of the week as the ridge
builds and the atmosphere begins to dry out.

Have a great holiday and Happy 4th of July from everyone here at
the NWS Midland/Odessa!

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29





000
FXUS64 KMAF 041053
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
553 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain today,
but should remain south and west of all area terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Increasing rain chances early next week with temperatures staying
mostly below normal for early July.

Morning analysis shows an upper ridge beginning to weaken to our
west and a large scale trough stretched over the eastern U.S. At the
surface, moist flow continues off the Gulf and will eventually help
give us a good chance for rain once a cold front arrives. More on
that later. For the second night in a row we are watching a dying
thunderstorm complex move south out of the TX Panhandle. A few of
these storms may make it into northern Lea Co or the northern
Permian Basin later this morning. More likely to happen, an
outflow boundary from these storms will settle across the
northwestern CWA. This could help spark a few showers and storms
later this afternoon. The better chance for rain today though will
be over the higher terrain associated with a developing theta-e
axis. This axis expands slightly east on Sunday with a better
chance of rain spreading into the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM.

The upper ridge sinks south into northern Mexico Monday while a cold
front enters the TX Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front Monday evening with one or
more complexes moving south across the area overnight into Tuesday
morning. The frontal boundary may linger across the region Tuesday
into Wednesday so will keep a good chance for rain in the
forecast. PWATs will climb over 1.5" and storm motions look fairly
slow so heavy rainfall will be a good possibility. Models show the
upper ridge strengthening over the region by the end of the week.
If we see widespread rainfall this week, the ridge may not build
as strong as indicated.

Temperatures have had a hard time warming too much due to all the
green vegetation across area. Will continue the trend of forecasting
near or below guidance this weekend. Monday through Wednesday will
be tricky due to the possibility of cloudcover and rain. May need to
lower temps even more if we see widespread rainfall. Temperatures
will warm back to near normal by the end of the week as the ridge
builds and the atmosphere begins to dry out.

Have a great holiday and Happy 4th of July from everyone here at
the NWS Midland/Odessa!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  92  73  92  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    92  70  98  72  /  10  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                      92  73  92  73  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX               90  70  92  71  /  10  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              84  67  88  68  /  20  30  40  40
HOBBS NM                       89  67  92  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       87  64  88  66  /  40  30  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        91  71  93  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      90  71  92  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        93  72  97  73  /  10  10  20  20


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29





000
FXUS64 KMAF 041053
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
553 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Thunderstorms are expected to form over the higher terrain today,
but should remain south and west of all area terminals.
Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

Increasing rain chances early next week with temperatures staying
mostly below normal for early July.

Morning analysis shows an upper ridge beginning to weaken to our
west and a large scale trough stretched over the eastern U.S. At the
surface, moist flow continues off the Gulf and will eventually help
give us a good chance for rain once a cold front arrives. More on
that later. For the second night in a row we are watching a dying
thunderstorm complex move south out of the TX Panhandle. A few of
these storms may make it into northern Lea Co or the northern
Permian Basin later this morning. More likely to happen, an
outflow boundary from these storms will settle across the
northwestern CWA. This could help spark a few showers and storms
later this afternoon. The better chance for rain today though will
be over the higher terrain associated with a developing theta-e
axis. This axis expands slightly east on Sunday with a better
chance of rain spreading into the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM.

The upper ridge sinks south into northern Mexico Monday while a cold
front enters the TX Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front Monday evening with one or
more complexes moving south across the area overnight into Tuesday
morning. The frontal boundary may linger across the region Tuesday
into Wednesday so will keep a good chance for rain in the
forecast. PWATs will climb over 1.5" and storm motions look fairly
slow so heavy rainfall will be a good possibility. Models show the
upper ridge strengthening over the region by the end of the week.
If we see widespread rainfall this week, the ridge may not build
as strong as indicated.

Temperatures have had a hard time warming too much due to all the
green vegetation across area. Will continue the trend of forecasting
near or below guidance this weekend. Monday through Wednesday will
be tricky due to the possibility of cloudcover and rain. May need to
lower temps even more if we see widespread rainfall. Temperatures
will warm back to near normal by the end of the week as the ridge
builds and the atmosphere begins to dry out.

Have a great holiday and Happy 4th of July from everyone here at
the NWS Midland/Odessa!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  92  73  92  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    92  70  98  72  /  10  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                      92  73  92  73  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX               90  70  92  71  /  10  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              84  67  88  68  /  20  30  40  40
HOBBS NM                       89  67  92  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       87  64  88  66  /  40  30  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        91  71  93  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      90  71  92  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        93  72  97  73  /  10  10  20  20


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29




000
FXUS64 KMAF 040916
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
416 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Increasing rain chances early next week with temperatures staying
mostly below normal for early July.

Morning analysis shows an upper ridge beginning to weaken to our
west and a large scale trough stretched over the eastern U.S. At the
surface, moist flow continues off the Gulf and will eventually help
give us a good chance for rain once a cold front arrives. More on
that later. For the second night in a row we are watching a dying
thunderstorm complex move south out of the TX Panhandle. A few of
these storms may make it into northern Lea Co or the northern
Permian Basin later this morning. More likely to happen, an
outflow boundary from these storms will settle across the
northwestern CWA. This could help spark a few showers and storms
later this afternoon. The better chance for rain today though will
be over the higher terrain associated with a developing theta-e
axis. This axis expands slightly east on Sunday with a better
chance of rain spreading into the Upper Trans Pecos and SE NM.

The upper ridge sinks south into northern Mexico Monday while a cold
front enters the TX Panhandle. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front Monday evening with one or
more complexes moving south across the area overnight into Tuesday
morning. The frontal boundary may linger across the region Tuesday
into Wednesday so will keep a good chance for rain in the
forecast. PWATs will climb over 1.5" and storm motions look fairly
slow so heavy rainfall will be a good possibility. Models show the
upper ridge strengthening over the region by the end of the week.
If we see widespread rainfall this week, the ridge may not build
as strong as indicated.

Temperatures have had a hard time warming too much due to all the
green vegetation across area. Will continue the trend of forecasting
near or below guidance this weekend. Monday through Wednesday will
be tricky due to the possibility of cloudcover and rain. May need to
lower temps even more if we see widespread rainfall. Temperatures
will warm back to near normal by the end of the week as the ridge
builds and the atmosphere begins to dry out.

Have a great holiday and Happy 4th of July from everyone here at
the NWS Midland/Odessa!

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX                  92  73  92  74  /  10  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                    92  70  98  72  /  10  10  20  30
DRYDEN TX                      92  73  92  73  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX               90  70  92  71  /  10  10  20  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX              84  67  88  68  /  20  30  40  40
HOBBS NM                       89  67  92  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                       87  64  88  66  /  40  30  50  30
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX        91  71  93  72  /  10  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                      90  71  92  73  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                        93  72  97  73  /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29




000
FXUS64 KMAF 040452
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight and Independence Day at all
southeast New Mexico terminals.  It appears any thunderstorms will
stay west or southwest of all terminals through the forecast period,
while surface winds remain south/southeast between 10 and 15kt.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 040452
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1152 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight and Independence Day at all
southeast New Mexico terminals.  It appears any thunderstorms will
stay west or southwest of all terminals through the forecast period,
while surface winds remain south/southeast between 10 and 15kt.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 040003
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
703 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Rain and a few thunderstorms could impact SE New Mexico TAF sites
within the first 3-4 hours of the TAF period this evening, with
brief gusty winds possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the forecast period, with southeast
winds increasing to around 12-15kt by late morning on Saturday. A
MVFR deck may try to develop at KINK, KMAF, and KFST Saturday
morning, though have maintained VFR ceilings with only scattered
MVFR due to lower confidence in this scenario.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Great Basin this morning with an upper
trough extending down through the Mississippi River Valley.  The
ridge axis will slowly shift east becoming centered over Northern
Mexico by Sunday and then retrograding back to the west by early
Tuesday.  This may allow a strong shortwave to come around the east
side of the ridge and down into the area Tuesday.  Upper low off CA
will come ashore by the middle of next week.

Overall have a Summer time wx pattern with little change in the day
to day wx.  Temperatures will remain below normal the next couple of
days with readings warming in the extended.  Will see highs along
the Rio Grande over 100 next week.  Will have to watch a front next
week that may make it into the northern CWA by early Tuesday...
otherwise S to SE flow will continue.  This will help keep low level
moisture elevated.

Models develop a little rain over the western CWA tonight and again
on Saturday from SE NM down across the higher elevations of W TX.
Already have the start of a few storms developing this afternoon in
SE NM.  Other than Lea county expect very little rain east of the
Pecos River.  Will continue low pops already in the forecast.  MAF
12z sounding showing PW over 1.2 inches... locally heavy rain will
be main concern next several days with slow moving storms and high
moisture.  Best chance for rain looks to be Monday night and
Tuesday with the shortwave.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMAF 040003
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
703 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Rain and a few thunderstorms could impact SE New Mexico TAF sites
within the first 3-4 hours of the TAF period this evening, with
brief gusty winds possible. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the forecast period, with southeast
winds increasing to around 12-15kt by late morning on Saturday. A
MVFR deck may try to develop at KINK, KMAF, and KFST Saturday
morning, though have maintained VFR ceilings with only scattered
MVFR due to lower confidence in this scenario.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Great Basin this morning with an upper
trough extending down through the Mississippi River Valley.  The
ridge axis will slowly shift east becoming centered over Northern
Mexico by Sunday and then retrograding back to the west by early
Tuesday.  This may allow a strong shortwave to come around the east
side of the ridge and down into the area Tuesday.  Upper low off CA
will come ashore by the middle of next week.

Overall have a Summer time wx pattern with little change in the day
to day wx.  Temperatures will remain below normal the next couple of
days with readings warming in the extended.  Will see highs along
the Rio Grande over 100 next week.  Will have to watch a front next
week that may make it into the northern CWA by early Tuesday...
otherwise S to SE flow will continue.  This will help keep low level
moisture elevated.

Models develop a little rain over the western CWA tonight and again
on Saturday from SE NM down across the higher elevations of W TX.
Already have the start of a few storms developing this afternoon in
SE NM.  Other than Lea county expect very little rain east of the
Pecos River.  Will continue low pops already in the forecast.  MAF
12z sounding showing PW over 1.2 inches... locally heavy rain will
be main concern next several days with slow moving storms and high
moisture.  Best chance for rain looks to be Monday night and
Tuesday with the shortwave.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$





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