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000
FXUS64 KMAF 281129
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
persisting for the next several hours. Still have gusty north winds
continuing areawide with MVFR affecting all but CNM and PEQ early
this morning. Should see low cigs move east throughout the morning.
Otherwise, winds will remain elevated through at least early
afternoon then diminish to below 10kt by this evening with
skies clearing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level low over the northern Permian Basin will push east
today bringing an end to rain chances. A cold front associated
with this low moved through the area yesterday and high pressure
behind the front brought below normal temperatures. Northerly
winds will continue to advect cool air into the area today and
tomorrow keeping temperatures below normal before an upper ridge
approaches from the west on Thursday, shifting surface winds from
the south and increasing temperatures back to near normal.

The upper ridge breaks down by the weekend leaving a modest
westerly mid level flow across the southwestern U.S. This will
keep a modest warming trend through Monday before another upper
level low moves onshore from the eastern Pacific near the
U.S./Mexico border. This will provide our next chance for
rainfall as upper flow backs from the southwest and becomes
diffluent increasing instability. Both the GFS and ECMWF show low
level moisture holding against the mountains in eastern New Mexico
so rain will be possible for much of the CWA.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 281129
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015


.AVIATION...
12Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
persisting for the next several hours. Still have gusty north winds
continuing areawide with MVFR affecting all but CNM and PEQ early
this morning. Should see low cigs move east throughout the morning.
Otherwise, winds will remain elevated through at least early
afternoon then diminish to below 10kt by this evening with
skies clearing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level low over the northern Permian Basin will push east
today bringing an end to rain chances. A cold front associated
with this low moved through the area yesterday and high pressure
behind the front brought below normal temperatures. Northerly
winds will continue to advect cool air into the area today and
tomorrow keeping temperatures below normal before an upper ridge
approaches from the west on Thursday, shifting surface winds from
the south and increasing temperatures back to near normal.

The upper ridge breaks down by the weekend leaving a modest
westerly mid level flow across the southwestern U.S. This will
keep a modest warming trend through Monday before another upper
level low moves onshore from the eastern Pacific near the
U.S./Mexico border. This will provide our next chance for
rainfall as upper flow backs from the southwest and becomes
diffluent increasing instability. Both the GFS and ECMWF show low
level moisture holding against the mountains in eastern New Mexico
so rain will be possible for much of the CWA.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 280847
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
347 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low over the northern Permian Basin will push east
today bringing an end to rain chances. A cold front associated
with this low moved through the area yesterday and high pressure
behind the front brought below normal temperatures. Northerly
winds will continue to advect cool air into the area today and
tomorrow keeping temperatures below normal before an upper ridge
approaches from the west on Thursday, shifting surface winds from
the south and increasing temperatures back to near normal.

The upper ridge breaks down by the weekend leaving a modest
westerly mid level flow across the southwestern U.S. This will
keep a modest warming trend through Monday before another upper
level low moves onshore from the eastern Pacific near the
U.S./Mexico border. This will provide our next chance for
rainfall as upper flow backs from the southwest and becomes
diffluent increasing instability. Both the GFS and ECMWF show low
level moisture holding against the mountains in eastern New Mexico
so rain will be possible for much of the CWA.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  42  74  48  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              63  44  74  49  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                68  42  76  47  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  47  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  44  73  49  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  42  66  49  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   64  40  73  47  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   58  35  68  40  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  43  74  49  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  65  43  74  50  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    68  43  75  49  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 280847
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
347 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low over the northern Permian Basin will push east
today bringing an end to rain chances. A cold front associated
with this low moved through the area yesterday and high pressure
behind the front brought below normal temperatures. Northerly
winds will continue to advect cool air into the area today and
tomorrow keeping temperatures below normal before an upper ridge
approaches from the west on Thursday, shifting surface winds from
the south and increasing temperatures back to near normal.

The upper ridge breaks down by the weekend leaving a modest
westerly mid level flow across the southwestern U.S. This will
keep a modest warming trend through Monday before another upper
level low moves onshore from the eastern Pacific near the
U.S./Mexico border. This will provide our next chance for
rainfall as upper flow backs from the southwest and becomes
diffluent increasing instability. Both the GFS and ECMWF show low
level moisture holding against the mountains in eastern New Mexico
so rain will be possible for much of the CWA.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  42  74  48  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              63  44  74  49  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                68  42  76  47  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  47  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  44  73  49  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  42  66  49  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   64  40  73  47  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   58  35  68  40  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  43  74  49  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  65  43  74  50  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    68  43  75  49  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 280847
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
347 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low over the northern Permian Basin will push east
today bringing an end to rain chances. A cold front associated
with this low moved through the area yesterday and high pressure
behind the front brought below normal temperatures. Northerly
winds will continue to advect cool air into the area today and
tomorrow keeping temperatures below normal before an upper ridge
approaches from the west on Thursday, shifting surface winds from
the south and increasing temperatures back to near normal.

The upper ridge breaks down by the weekend leaving a modest
westerly mid level flow across the southwestern U.S. This will
keep a modest warming trend through Monday before another upper
level low moves onshore from the eastern Pacific near the
U.S./Mexico border. This will provide our next chance for
rainfall as upper flow backs from the southwest and becomes
diffluent increasing instability. Both the GFS and ECMWF show low
level moisture holding against the mountains in eastern New Mexico
so rain will be possible for much of the CWA.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  42  74  48  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              63  44  74  49  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                68  42  76  47  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  47  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  44  73  49  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  42  66  49  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   64  40  73  47  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   58  35  68  40  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  43  74  49  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  65  43  74  50  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    68  43  75  49  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/10

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 280847
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
347 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low over the northern Permian Basin will push east
today bringing an end to rain chances. A cold front associated
with this low moved through the area yesterday and high pressure
behind the front brought below normal temperatures. Northerly
winds will continue to advect cool air into the area today and
tomorrow keeping temperatures below normal before an upper ridge
approaches from the west on Thursday, shifting surface winds from
the south and increasing temperatures back to near normal.

The upper ridge breaks down by the weekend leaving a modest
westerly mid level flow across the southwestern U.S. This will
keep a modest warming trend through Monday before another upper
level low moves onshore from the eastern Pacific near the
U.S./Mexico border. This will provide our next chance for
rainfall as upper flow backs from the southwest and becomes
diffluent increasing instability. Both the GFS and ECMWF show low
level moisture holding against the mountains in eastern New Mexico
so rain will be possible for much of the CWA.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  42  74  48  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              63  44  74  49  /  20   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                68  42  76  47  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  47  77  50  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  44  73  49  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  42  66  49  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   64  40  73  47  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   58  35  68  40  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    64  43  74  49  /  10   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  65  43  74  50  /  10   0   0   0
WINK TX                    68  43  75  49  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27/10

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Check us out on the internet at:
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000
FXUS64 KMAF 280529
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting some terminals through Tuesday morning. Currently have
gusty north winds areawide with low cigs moving in from the north.
MVFR cigs already affecting HOB with all but maybe PEQ following
suit over the next several hours. Expect low cigs to south of NM
terminals early Tuesday morning then all other sites by mid morning.
Otherwise, winds will remain elevated overnight and much of Tuesday
then diminish mid-late afternoon with skies clearing.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low centered west of Childress will meander around W TX before
slowly wobbling to the east.  An upper ridge over the western U.S.
will build in behind the low and remain over the area the rest of
the week.  This ridge will result in warmer and dryer wx for the region.
However by this weekend another cut off low will develop off the CA
coast and could bring another round of storms next week as it moves
this direction.

Currently have a strong cold front moving through the area today
with a north wind spreading across the CWA.  Stronger gusts are just
beginning to move into the area as pressure gradient tightens.  May
approach high wind speeds tonight at GDP as the front squeezes
through the pass but not expecting to maintain for the time
requirement for a warning.

Good cold air advection will continue through the night but
increasing clouds will help keep temperatures from dropping too
far.  Readings at Marfa... Alpine... and Tatum should drop into the
30s the next couple of night but expecting they will stay above
freezing.  Highs Tuesday only make it back into the 60s as wind
remains out of the north.  Overall expect a warming trend to begin
Wednesday as 70s return with temperatures continue to climb through
the weekend.  Highs around 90 will be possible by Sunday.

This afternoon a large area of showers and storms continue to
wrap around the low.  May see some showers tonight move down into
the area as wrap around precip sags down into the area.  Best chance
of rain will be for the NE Permian Basin but could see some showers
as far west as Lea or Eddy county.  The low will be slow to exit the
area and may have a few lingering showers Tuesday morning over the
NE.  Rest of the week looks dry.  Low pops creep back into the
forecast early next week with the approach of the next upper low.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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Check us out on the internet at:
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000
FXUS64 KMAF 280529
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1229 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2015


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting some terminals through Tuesday morning. Currently have
gusty north winds areawide with low cigs moving in from the north.
MVFR cigs already affecting HOB with all but maybe PEQ following
suit over the next several hours. Expect low cigs to south of NM
terminals early Tuesday morning then all other sites by mid morning.
Otherwise, winds will remain elevated overnight and much of Tuesday
then diminish mid-late afternoon with skies clearing.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low centered west of Childress will meander around W TX before
slowly wobbling to the east.  An upper ridge over the western U.S.
will build in behind the low and remain over the area the rest of
the week.  This ridge will result in warmer and dryer wx for the region.
However by this weekend another cut off low will develop off the CA
coast and could bring another round of storms next week as it moves
this direction.

Currently have a strong cold front moving through the area today
with a north wind spreading across the CWA.  Stronger gusts are just
beginning to move into the area as pressure gradient tightens.  May
approach high wind speeds tonight at GDP as the front squeezes
through the pass but not expecting to maintain for the time
requirement for a warning.

Good cold air advection will continue through the night but
increasing clouds will help keep temperatures from dropping too
far.  Readings at Marfa... Alpine... and Tatum should drop into the
30s the next couple of night but expecting they will stay above
freezing.  Highs Tuesday only make it back into the 60s as wind
remains out of the north.  Overall expect a warming trend to begin
Wednesday as 70s return with temperatures continue to climb through
the weekend.  Highs around 90 will be possible by Sunday.

This afternoon a large area of showers and storms continue to
wrap around the low.  May see some showers tonight move down into
the area as wrap around precip sags down into the area.  Best chance
of rain will be for the NE Permian Basin but could see some showers
as far west as Lea or Eddy county.  The low will be slow to exit the
area and may have a few lingering showers Tuesday morning over the
NE.  Rest of the week looks dry.  Low pops creep back into the
forecast early next week with the approach of the next upper low.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

27

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 272250
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
550 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper low centered over the South Plains,
poised to send wraparound moisture into West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico overnight. Forecast soundings call for MVFR wraparound
stratus at worst, at KMAF/KCNM/KHOB, w/cigs scattering out all
terminals Tue afternoon. A little -SHRA or DZ may accompany
stratus overnight, but we`ll leave it out for now. Otherwise, NW-N
sfc flow continues.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low centered west of Childress will meander around W TX before
slowly wobbling to the east.  An upper ridge over the western U.S.
will build in behind the low and remain over the area the rest of
the week.  This ridge will result in warmer and dryer wx for the region.
However by this weekend another cut off low will develop off the CA
coast and could bring another round of storms next week as it moves
this direction.

Currently have a strong cold front moving through the area today
with a north wind spreading across the CWA.  Stronger gusts are just
beginning to move into the area as pressure gradient tightens.  May
approach high wind speeds tonight at GDP as the front squeezes
through the pass but not expecting to maintain for the time
requirement for a warning.

Good cold air advection will continue through the night but
increasing clouds will help keep temperatures from dropping too
far.  Readings at Marfa... Alpine... and Tatum should drop into the
30s the next couple of night but expecting they will stay above
freezing.  Highs Tuesday only make it back into the 60s as wind
remains out of the north.  Overall expect a warming trend to begin
Wednesday as 70s return with temperatures continue to climb through
the weekend.  Highs around 90 will be possible by Sunday.

This afternoon a large area of showers and storms continue to
wrap around the low.  May see some showers tonight move down into
the area as wrap around precip sags down into the area.  Best chance
of rain will be for the NE Permian Basin but could see some showers
as far west as Lea or Eddy county.  The low will be slow to exit the
area and may have a few lingering showers Tuesday morning over the
NE.  Rest of the week looks dry.  Low pops creep back into the
forecast early next week with the approach of the next upper low.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 272250
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
550 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper low centered over the South Plains,
poised to send wraparound moisture into West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico overnight. Forecast soundings call for MVFR wraparound
stratus at worst, at KMAF/KCNM/KHOB, w/cigs scattering out all
terminals Tue afternoon. A little -SHRA or DZ may accompany
stratus overnight, but we`ll leave it out for now. Otherwise, NW-N
sfc flow continues.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low centered west of Childress will meander around W TX before
slowly wobbling to the east.  An upper ridge over the western U.S.
will build in behind the low and remain over the area the rest of
the week.  This ridge will result in warmer and dryer wx for the region.
However by this weekend another cut off low will develop off the CA
coast and could bring another round of storms next week as it moves
this direction.

Currently have a strong cold front moving through the area today
with a north wind spreading across the CWA.  Stronger gusts are just
beginning to move into the area as pressure gradient tightens.  May
approach high wind speeds tonight at GDP as the front squeezes
through the pass but not expecting to maintain for the time
requirement for a warning.

Good cold air advection will continue through the night but
increasing clouds will help keep temperatures from dropping too
far.  Readings at Marfa... Alpine... and Tatum should drop into the
30s the next couple of night but expecting they will stay above
freezing.  Highs Tuesday only make it back into the 60s as wind
remains out of the north.  Overall expect a warming trend to begin
Wednesday as 70s return with temperatures continue to climb through
the weekend.  Highs around 90 will be possible by Sunday.

This afternoon a large area of showers and storms continue to
wrap around the low.  May see some showers tonight move down into
the area as wrap around precip sags down into the area.  Best chance
of rain will be for the NE Permian Basin but could see some showers
as far west as Lea or Eddy county.  The low will be slow to exit the
area and may have a few lingering showers Tuesday morning over the
NE.  Rest of the week looks dry.  Low pops creep back into the
forecast early next week with the approach of the next upper low.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 272250
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
550 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper low centered over the South Plains,
poised to send wraparound moisture into West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico overnight. Forecast soundings call for MVFR wraparound
stratus at worst, at KMAF/KCNM/KHOB, w/cigs scattering out all
terminals Tue afternoon. A little -SHRA or DZ may accompany
stratus overnight, but we`ll leave it out for now. Otherwise, NW-N
sfc flow continues.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 143 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
Upper low centered west of Childress will meander around W TX before
slowly wobbling to the east.  An upper ridge over the western U.S.
will build in behind the low and remain over the area the rest of
the week.  This ridge will result in warmer and dryer wx for the region.
However by this weekend another cut off low will develop off the CA
coast and could bring another round of storms next week as it moves
this direction.

Currently have a strong cold front moving through the area today
with a north wind spreading across the CWA.  Stronger gusts are just
beginning to move into the area as pressure gradient tightens.  May
approach high wind speeds tonight at GDP as the front squeezes
through the pass but not expecting to maintain for the time
requirement for a warning.

Good cold air advection will continue through the night but
increasing clouds will help keep temperatures from dropping too
far.  Readings at Marfa... Alpine... and Tatum should drop into the
30s the next couple of night but expecting they will stay above
freezing.  Highs Tuesday only make it back into the 60s as wind
remains out of the north.  Overall expect a warming trend to begin
Wednesday as 70s return with temperatures continue to climb through
the weekend.  Highs around 90 will be possible by Sunday.

This afternoon a large area of showers and storms continue to
wrap around the low.  May see some showers tonight move down into
the area as wrap around precip sags down into the area.  Best chance
of rain will be for the NE Permian Basin but could see some showers
as far west as Lea or Eddy county.  The low will be slow to exit the
area and may have a few lingering showers Tuesday morning over the
NE.  Rest of the week looks dry.  Low pops creep back into the
forecast early next week with the approach of the next upper low.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 271843
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
143 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low centered west of Childress will meander around W TX before
slowly wobbling to the east.  An upper ridge over the western U.S.
will build in behind the low and remain over the area the rest of
the week.  This ridge will result in warmer and dryer wx for the region.
However by this weekend another cut off low will develop off the CA
coast and could bring another round of storms next week as it moves
this direction.

Currently have a strong cold front moving through the area today
with a north wind spreading across the CWA.  Stronger gusts are just
beginning to move into the area as pressure gradient tightens.  May
approach high wind speeds tonight at GDP as the front squeezes
through the pass but not expecting to maintain for the time
requirement for a warning.

Good cold air advection will continue through the night but
increasing clouds will help keep temperatures from dropping too
far.  Readings at Marfa... Alpine... and Tatum should drop into the
30s the next couple of night but expecting they will stay above
freezing.  Highs Tuesday only make it back into the 60s as wind
remains out of the north.  Overall expect a warming trend to begin
Wednesday as 70s return with temperatures continue to climb through
the weekend.  Highs around 90 will be possible by Sunday.

This afternoon a large area of showers and storms continue to
wrap around the low.  May see some showers tonight move down into
the area as wrap around precip sags down into the area.  Best chance
of rain will be for the NE Permian Basin but could see some showers
as far west as Lea or Eddy county.  The low will be slow to exit the
area and may have a few lingering showers Tuesday morning over the
NE.  Rest of the week looks dry.  Low pops creep back into the
forecast early next week with the approach of the next upper low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  61  43  74  /  30  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  61  44  76  /  40  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                43  66  42  75  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  52  70  48  79  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           44  64  45  76  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          37  59  44  70  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   40  61  41  73  /  30  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   35  60  33  68  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    43  62  44  75  /  30  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  42  61  44  75  /  30  10   0   0
WINK TX                    44  66  45  76  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271843
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
143 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low centered west of Childress will meander around W TX before
slowly wobbling to the east.  An upper ridge over the western U.S.
will build in behind the low and remain over the area the rest of
the week.  This ridge will result in warmer and dryer wx for the region.
However by this weekend another cut off low will develop off the CA
coast and could bring another round of storms next week as it moves
this direction.

Currently have a strong cold front moving through the area today
with a north wind spreading across the CWA.  Stronger gusts are just
beginning to move into the area as pressure gradient tightens.  May
approach high wind speeds tonight at GDP as the front squeezes
through the pass but not expecting to maintain for the time
requirement for a warning.

Good cold air advection will continue through the night but
increasing clouds will help keep temperatures from dropping too
far.  Readings at Marfa... Alpine... and Tatum should drop into the
30s the next couple of night but expecting they will stay above
freezing.  Highs Tuesday only make it back into the 60s as wind
remains out of the north.  Overall expect a warming trend to begin
Wednesday as 70s return with temperatures continue to climb through
the weekend.  Highs around 90 will be possible by Sunday.

This afternoon a large area of showers and storms continue to
wrap around the low.  May see some showers tonight move down into
the area as wrap around precip sags down into the area.  Best chance
of rain will be for the NE Permian Basin but could see some showers
as far west as Lea or Eddy county.  The low will be slow to exit the
area and may have a few lingering showers Tuesday morning over the
NE.  Rest of the week looks dry.  Low pops creep back into the
forecast early next week with the approach of the next upper low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  61  43  74  /  30  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  61  44  76  /  40  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                43  66  42  75  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  52  70  48  79  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           44  64  45  76  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          37  59  44  70  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   40  61  41  73  /  30  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   35  60  33  68  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    43  62  44  75  /  30  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  42  61  44  75  /  30  10   0   0
WINK TX                    44  66  45  76  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271843
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
143 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low centered west of Childress will meander around W TX before
slowly wobbling to the east.  An upper ridge over the western U.S.
will build in behind the low and remain over the area the rest of
the week.  This ridge will result in warmer and dryer wx for the region.
However by this weekend another cut off low will develop off the CA
coast and could bring another round of storms next week as it moves
this direction.

Currently have a strong cold front moving through the area today
with a north wind spreading across the CWA.  Stronger gusts are just
beginning to move into the area as pressure gradient tightens.  May
approach high wind speeds tonight at GDP as the front squeezes
through the pass but not expecting to maintain for the time
requirement for a warning.

Good cold air advection will continue through the night but
increasing clouds will help keep temperatures from dropping too
far.  Readings at Marfa... Alpine... and Tatum should drop into the
30s the next couple of night but expecting they will stay above
freezing.  Highs Tuesday only make it back into the 60s as wind
remains out of the north.  Overall expect a warming trend to begin
Wednesday as 70s return with temperatures continue to climb through
the weekend.  Highs around 90 will be possible by Sunday.

This afternoon a large area of showers and storms continue to
wrap around the low.  May see some showers tonight move down into
the area as wrap around precip sags down into the area.  Best chance
of rain will be for the NE Permian Basin but could see some showers
as far west as Lea or Eddy county.  The low will be slow to exit the
area and may have a few lingering showers Tuesday morning over the
NE.  Rest of the week looks dry.  Low pops creep back into the
forecast early next week with the approach of the next upper low.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 42  61  43  74  /  30  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              44  61  44  76  /  40  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                43  66  42  75  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  52  70  48  79  /  10  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           44  64  45  76  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          37  59  44  70  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   40  61  41  73  /  30  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   35  60  33  68  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    43  62  44  75  /  30  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  42  61  44  75  /  30  10   0   0
WINK TX                    44  66  45  76  /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271734
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level storm system centered in the eastern Texas Panhandle
will slowly move northeast toward the Red River the next 24 hours.
Wrap around VFR cumulus/stratcumulus clouds should increase from
north to south this afternoon and this evening as a cold front
surges south this evening. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and
gusty this afternoon are expected to shift to the north tonight.
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop at KMAF and KHOB by 06z
tonight with a 30 percent chance of showers tonight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

A cold front will move south through all area terminals today with
gusty northerly winds developing behind it.  There will be a
period of MVFR ceilings at KCNM and KMAF this morning, and also MVFR
visibility, and IFR ceilings at KHOB, between 27/12Z and 27/16Z.
VFR conditions should prevail this afternoon, but MVFR ceilings
appear likely to spread back over most terminals this evening and
overnight.  A few thunderstorms may develop over the area this
afternoon, particularly KHOB, but probability is too low to include
in the forecast at this time.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

The well advertised upper low has formed over NM and is slowly
drifting east. A strong cold front has made its way into northern
portions of the Permian Basin already this morning. This is a little
ahead of schedule so will trend to northerly winds quicker this
morning with much cooler conditions expected throughout the day.
We should only see about a 10-15 degree diurnal range across the
northern half of the area with temperatures warming a bit more
south of the front across the Rio Grande Valley. Northeasterly
winds will increase through the day, peaking this evening. This
may create some blowing dust, but visibilities shouldn`t be too
low given a good chance for rain to our north. Winds may locally
reach advisory criteria over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau
this evening so will need to monitor. Strong gap winds will also
develop at Guadalupe Pass, but are expected to remain just below
warning criteria.

Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected behind the
front today mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Clouds and
even some light showers will likely stick around through the day
Tuesday before clearing by Wednesday morning.

Unusually cold air is wrapping around the upper low with snow being
reported this morning across much of northern NM. Snow will even be
possible today across the TX Panhandle! With strong CAA expected
tonight, temperatures will drop within a few degrees of record lows.
Locations like Tatum and Marfa will likely see temperatures near
freezing early Tuesday morning. Not much of a warm-up is expected
Tuesday afternoon with clouds and light precipitation. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 degrees across most of the region with 70s
expected along the Rio Grande. The record low maximum temperature
for Midland Intl on Tuesday is 60 set in 1931. A sfc ridge settles
in Tuesday night with clearing skies and diminishing winds. This
sets up great conditions for strong radiational cooling. Hard to
believe, but we will need to monitor northern Lea county and the
Marfa Plateau for freezing temperatures again. All locations have
greened up significantly and have not had a freeze since March.

Upper ridging builds in Wednesday and temperatures begin to warm
each day through the weekend. Expect dry conditions areawide through
at least next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271734
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level storm system centered in the eastern Texas Panhandle
will slowly move northeast toward the Red River the next 24 hours.
Wrap around VFR cumulus/stratcumulus clouds should increase from
north to south this afternoon and this evening as a cold front
surges south this evening. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and
gusty this afternoon are expected to shift to the north tonight.
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop at KMAF and KHOB by 06z
tonight with a 30 percent chance of showers tonight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

A cold front will move south through all area terminals today with
gusty northerly winds developing behind it.  There will be a
period of MVFR ceilings at KCNM and KMAF this morning, and also MVFR
visibility, and IFR ceilings at KHOB, between 27/12Z and 27/16Z.
VFR conditions should prevail this afternoon, but MVFR ceilings
appear likely to spread back over most terminals this evening and
overnight.  A few thunderstorms may develop over the area this
afternoon, particularly KHOB, but probability is too low to include
in the forecast at this time.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

The well advertised upper low has formed over NM and is slowly
drifting east. A strong cold front has made its way into northern
portions of the Permian Basin already this morning. This is a little
ahead of schedule so will trend to northerly winds quicker this
morning with much cooler conditions expected throughout the day.
We should only see about a 10-15 degree diurnal range across the
northern half of the area with temperatures warming a bit more
south of the front across the Rio Grande Valley. Northeasterly
winds will increase through the day, peaking this evening. This
may create some blowing dust, but visibilities shouldn`t be too
low given a good chance for rain to our north. Winds may locally
reach advisory criteria over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau
this evening so will need to monitor. Strong gap winds will also
develop at Guadalupe Pass, but are expected to remain just below
warning criteria.

Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected behind the
front today mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Clouds and
even some light showers will likely stick around through the day
Tuesday before clearing by Wednesday morning.

Unusually cold air is wrapping around the upper low with snow being
reported this morning across much of northern NM. Snow will even be
possible today across the TX Panhandle! With strong CAA expected
tonight, temperatures will drop within a few degrees of record lows.
Locations like Tatum and Marfa will likely see temperatures near
freezing early Tuesday morning. Not much of a warm-up is expected
Tuesday afternoon with clouds and light precipitation. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 degrees across most of the region with 70s
expected along the Rio Grande. The record low maximum temperature
for Midland Intl on Tuesday is 60 set in 1931. A sfc ridge settles
in Tuesday night with clearing skies and diminishing winds. This
sets up great conditions for strong radiational cooling. Hard to
believe, but we will need to monitor northern Lea county and the
Marfa Plateau for freezing temperatures again. All locations have
greened up significantly and have not had a freeze since March.

Upper ridging builds in Wednesday and temperatures begin to warm
each day through the weekend. Expect dry conditions areawide through
at least next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271734
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level storm system centered in the eastern Texas Panhandle
will slowly move northeast toward the Red River the next 24 hours.
Wrap around VFR cumulus/stratcumulus clouds should increase from
north to south this afternoon and this evening as a cold front
surges south this evening. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and
gusty this afternoon are expected to shift to the north tonight.
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop at KMAF and KHOB by 06z
tonight with a 30 percent chance of showers tonight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

A cold front will move south through all area terminals today with
gusty northerly winds developing behind it.  There will be a
period of MVFR ceilings at KCNM and KMAF this morning, and also MVFR
visibility, and IFR ceilings at KHOB, between 27/12Z and 27/16Z.
VFR conditions should prevail this afternoon, but MVFR ceilings
appear likely to spread back over most terminals this evening and
overnight.  A few thunderstorms may develop over the area this
afternoon, particularly KHOB, but probability is too low to include
in the forecast at this time.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

The well advertised upper low has formed over NM and is slowly
drifting east. A strong cold front has made its way into northern
portions of the Permian Basin already this morning. This is a little
ahead of schedule so will trend to northerly winds quicker this
morning with much cooler conditions expected throughout the day.
We should only see about a 10-15 degree diurnal range across the
northern half of the area with temperatures warming a bit more
south of the front across the Rio Grande Valley. Northeasterly
winds will increase through the day, peaking this evening. This
may create some blowing dust, but visibilities shouldn`t be too
low given a good chance for rain to our north. Winds may locally
reach advisory criteria over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau
this evening so will need to monitor. Strong gap winds will also
develop at Guadalupe Pass, but are expected to remain just below
warning criteria.

Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected behind the
front today mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Clouds and
even some light showers will likely stick around through the day
Tuesday before clearing by Wednesday morning.

Unusually cold air is wrapping around the upper low with snow being
reported this morning across much of northern NM. Snow will even be
possible today across the TX Panhandle! With strong CAA expected
tonight, temperatures will drop within a few degrees of record lows.
Locations like Tatum and Marfa will likely see temperatures near
freezing early Tuesday morning. Not much of a warm-up is expected
Tuesday afternoon with clouds and light precipitation. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 degrees across most of the region with 70s
expected along the Rio Grande. The record low maximum temperature
for Midland Intl on Tuesday is 60 set in 1931. A sfc ridge settles
in Tuesday night with clearing skies and diminishing winds. This
sets up great conditions for strong radiational cooling. Hard to
believe, but we will need to monitor northern Lea county and the
Marfa Plateau for freezing temperatures again. All locations have
greened up significantly and have not had a freeze since March.

Upper ridging builds in Wednesday and temperatures begin to warm
each day through the weekend. Expect dry conditions areawide through
at least next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271734
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1234 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Upper level storm system centered in the eastern Texas Panhandle
will slowly move northeast toward the Red River the next 24 hours.
Wrap around VFR cumulus/stratcumulus clouds should increase from
north to south this afternoon and this evening as a cold front
surges south this evening. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph and
gusty this afternoon are expected to shift to the north tonight.
MVFR ceilings are expected to develop at KMAF and KHOB by 06z
tonight with a 30 percent chance of showers tonight.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

A cold front will move south through all area terminals today with
gusty northerly winds developing behind it.  There will be a
period of MVFR ceilings at KCNM and KMAF this morning, and also MVFR
visibility, and IFR ceilings at KHOB, between 27/12Z and 27/16Z.
VFR conditions should prevail this afternoon, but MVFR ceilings
appear likely to spread back over most terminals this evening and
overnight.  A few thunderstorms may develop over the area this
afternoon, particularly KHOB, but probability is too low to include
in the forecast at this time.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

The well advertised upper low has formed over NM and is slowly
drifting east. A strong cold front has made its way into northern
portions of the Permian Basin already this morning. This is a little
ahead of schedule so will trend to northerly winds quicker this
morning with much cooler conditions expected throughout the day.
We should only see about a 10-15 degree diurnal range across the
northern half of the area with temperatures warming a bit more
south of the front across the Rio Grande Valley. Northeasterly
winds will increase through the day, peaking this evening. This
may create some blowing dust, but visibilities shouldn`t be too
low given a good chance for rain to our north. Winds may locally
reach advisory criteria over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau
this evening so will need to monitor. Strong gap winds will also
develop at Guadalupe Pass, but are expected to remain just below
warning criteria.

Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected behind the
front today mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Clouds and
even some light showers will likely stick around through the day
Tuesday before clearing by Wednesday morning.

Unusually cold air is wrapping around the upper low with snow being
reported this morning across much of northern NM. Snow will even be
possible today across the TX Panhandle! With strong CAA expected
tonight, temperatures will drop within a few degrees of record lows.
Locations like Tatum and Marfa will likely see temperatures near
freezing early Tuesday morning. Not much of a warm-up is expected
Tuesday afternoon with clouds and light precipitation. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 degrees across most of the region with 70s
expected along the Rio Grande. The record low maximum temperature
for Midland Intl on Tuesday is 60 set in 1931. A sfc ridge settles
in Tuesday night with clearing skies and diminishing winds. This
sets up great conditions for strong radiational cooling. Hard to
believe, but we will need to monitor northern Lea county and the
Marfa Plateau for freezing temperatures again. All locations have
greened up significantly and have not had a freeze since March.

Upper ridging builds in Wednesday and temperatures begin to warm
each day through the weekend. Expect dry conditions areawide through
at least next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 271058
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
558 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will move south through all area terminals today with
gusty northerly winds developing behind it.  There will be a
period of MVFR ceilings at KCNM and KMAF this morning, and also MVFR
visibility, and IFR ceilings at KHOB, between 27/12Z and 27/16Z.
VFR conditions should prevail this afternoon, but MVFR ceilings
appear likely to spread back over most terminals this evening and
overnight.  A few thunderstorms may develop over the area this
afternoon, particularly KHOB, but probability is too low to include
in the forecast at this time.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

The well advertised upper low has formed over NM and is slowly
drifting east. A strong cold front has made its way into northern
portions of the Permian Basin already this morning. This is a little
ahead of schedule so will trend to northerly winds quicker this
morning with much cooler conditions expected throughout the day.
We should only see about a 10-15 degree diurnal range across the
northern half of the area with temperatures warming a bit more
south of the front across the Rio Grande Valley. Northeasterly
winds will increase through the day, peaking this evening. This
may create some blowing dust, but visibilities shouldn`t be too
low given a good chance for rain to our north. Winds may locally
reach advisory criteria over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau
this evening so will need to monitor. Strong gap winds will also
develop at Guadalupe Pass, but are expected to remain just below
warning criteria.

Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected behind the
front today mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Clouds and
even some light showers will likely stick around through the day
Tuesday before clearing by Wednesday morning.

Unusually cold air is wrapping around the upper low with snow being
reported this morning across much of northern NM. Snow will even be
possible today across the TX Panhandle! With strong CAA expected
tonight, temperatures will drop within a few degrees of record lows.
Locations like Tatum and Marfa will likely see temperatures near
freezing early Tuesday morning. Not much of a warm-up is expected
Tuesday afternoon with clouds and light precipitation. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 degrees across most of the region with 70s
expected along the Rio Grande. The record low maximum temperature
for Midland Intl on Tuesday is 60 set in 1931. A sfc ridge settles
in Tuesday night with clearing skies and diminishing winds. This
sets up great conditions for strong radiational cooling. Hard to
believe, but we will need to monitor northern Lea county and the
Marfa Plateau for freezing temperatures again. All locations have
greened up significantly and have not had a freeze since March.

Upper ridging builds in Wednesday and temperatures begin to warm
each day through the weekend. Expect dry conditions areawide through
at least next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  41  61  41  /  30  20  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              72  44  62  42  /  30  40  20   0
CARLSBAD NM                64  41  66  42  /  20  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  82  50  68  46  /   0  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  44  62  43  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  37  59  42  /  20  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  39  61  40  /  30  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   66  34  59  33  /  10  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  43  62  42  /  20  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  68  42  61  42  /  20  20  10   0
WINK TX                    71  43  65  43  /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271058
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
558 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will move south through all area terminals today with
gusty northerly winds developing behind it.  There will be a
period of MVFR ceilings at KCNM and KMAF this morning, and also MVFR
visibility, and IFR ceilings at KHOB, between 27/12Z and 27/16Z.
VFR conditions should prevail this afternoon, but MVFR ceilings
appear likely to spread back over most terminals this evening and
overnight.  A few thunderstorms may develop over the area this
afternoon, particularly KHOB, but probability is too low to include
in the forecast at this time.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015/

The well advertised upper low has formed over NM and is slowly
drifting east. A strong cold front has made its way into northern
portions of the Permian Basin already this morning. This is a little
ahead of schedule so will trend to northerly winds quicker this
morning with much cooler conditions expected throughout the day.
We should only see about a 10-15 degree diurnal range across the
northern half of the area with temperatures warming a bit more
south of the front across the Rio Grande Valley. Northeasterly
winds will increase through the day, peaking this evening. This
may create some blowing dust, but visibilities shouldn`t be too
low given a good chance for rain to our north. Winds may locally
reach advisory criteria over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau
this evening so will need to monitor. Strong gap winds will also
develop at Guadalupe Pass, but are expected to remain just below
warning criteria.

Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected behind the
front today mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Clouds and
even some light showers will likely stick around through the day
Tuesday before clearing by Wednesday morning.

Unusually cold air is wrapping around the upper low with snow being
reported this morning across much of northern NM. Snow will even be
possible today across the TX Panhandle! With strong CAA expected
tonight, temperatures will drop within a few degrees of record lows.
Locations like Tatum and Marfa will likely see temperatures near
freezing early Tuesday morning. Not much of a warm-up is expected
Tuesday afternoon with clouds and light precipitation. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 degrees across most of the region with 70s
expected along the Rio Grande. The record low maximum temperature
for Midland Intl on Tuesday is 60 set in 1931. A sfc ridge settles
in Tuesday night with clearing skies and diminishing winds. This
sets up great conditions for strong radiational cooling. Hard to
believe, but we will need to monitor northern Lea county and the
Marfa Plateau for freezing temperatures again. All locations have
greened up significantly and have not had a freeze since March.

Upper ridging builds in Wednesday and temperatures begin to warm
each day through the weekend. Expect dry conditions areawide through
at least next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  41  61  41  /  30  20  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              72  44  62  42  /  30  40  20   0
CARLSBAD NM                64  41  66  42  /  20  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  82  50  68  46  /   0  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  44  62  43  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  37  59  42  /  20  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  39  61  40  /  30  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   66  34  59  33  /  10  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  43  62  42  /  20  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  68  42  61  42  /  20  20  10   0
WINK TX                    71  43  65  43  /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 270856
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
356 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The well advertised upper low has formed over NM and is slowly
drifting east. A strong cold front has made its way into northern
portions of the Permian Basin already this morning. This is a little
ahead of schedule so will trend to northerly winds quicker this
morning with much cooler conditions expected throughout the day.
We should only see about a 10-15 degree diurnal range across the
northern half of the area with temperatures warming a bit more
south of the front across the Rio Grande Valley. Northeasterly
winds will increase through the day, peaking this evening. This
may create some blowing dust, but visibilities shouldn`t be too
low given a good chance for rain to our north. Winds may locally
reach advisory criteria over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau
this evening so will need to monitor. Strong gap winds will also
develop at Guadalupe Pass, but are expected to remain just below
warning criteria.

Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected behind the
front today mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Clouds and
even some light showers will likely stick around through the day
Tuesday before clearing by Wednesday morning.

Unusually cold air is wrapping around the upper low with snow being
reported this morning across much of northern NM. Snow will even be
possible today across the TX Panhandle! With strong CAA expected
tonight, temperatures will drop within a few degrees of record lows.
Locations like Tatum and Marfa will likely see temperatures near
freezing early Tuesday morning. Not much of a warm-up is expected
Tuesday afternoon with clouds and light precipitation. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 degrees across most of the region with 70s
expected along the Rio Grande. The record low maximum temperature
for Midland Intl on Tuesday is 60 set in 1931. A sfc ridge settles
in Tuesday night with clearing skies and diminishing winds. This
sets up great conditions for strong radiational cooling. Hard to
believe, but we will need to monitor northern Lea county and the
Marfa Plateau for freezing temperatures again. All locations have
greened up significantly and have not had a freeze since March.

Upper ridging builds in Wednesday and temperatures begin to warm
each day through the weekend. Expect dry conditions areawide through
at least next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  41  61  41  /  30  20  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              72  44  62  42  /  30  40  20   0
CARLSBAD NM                64  41  66  42  /  20  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  82  50  68  46  /   0  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  44  62  43  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  37  59  42  /  20  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  39  61  40  /  30  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   66  34  59  33  /  10  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  43  62  42  /  20  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  68  42  61  42  /  20  20  10   0
WINK TX                    71  43  65  43  /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 270856
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
356 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The well advertised upper low has formed over NM and is slowly
drifting east. A strong cold front has made its way into northern
portions of the Permian Basin already this morning. This is a little
ahead of schedule so will trend to northerly winds quicker this
morning with much cooler conditions expected throughout the day.
We should only see about a 10-15 degree diurnal range across the
northern half of the area with temperatures warming a bit more
south of the front across the Rio Grande Valley. Northeasterly
winds will increase through the day, peaking this evening. This
may create some blowing dust, but visibilities shouldn`t be too
low given a good chance for rain to our north. Winds may locally
reach advisory criteria over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau
this evening so will need to monitor. Strong gap winds will also
develop at Guadalupe Pass, but are expected to remain just below
warning criteria.

Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected behind the
front today mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Clouds and
even some light showers will likely stick around through the day
Tuesday before clearing by Wednesday morning.

Unusually cold air is wrapping around the upper low with snow being
reported this morning across much of northern NM. Snow will even be
possible today across the TX Panhandle! With strong CAA expected
tonight, temperatures will drop within a few degrees of record lows.
Locations like Tatum and Marfa will likely see temperatures near
freezing early Tuesday morning. Not much of a warm-up is expected
Tuesday afternoon with clouds and light precipitation. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 degrees across most of the region with 70s
expected along the Rio Grande. The record low maximum temperature
for Midland Intl on Tuesday is 60 set in 1931. A sfc ridge settles
in Tuesday night with clearing skies and diminishing winds. This
sets up great conditions for strong radiational cooling. Hard to
believe, but we will need to monitor northern Lea county and the
Marfa Plateau for freezing temperatures again. All locations have
greened up significantly and have not had a freeze since March.

Upper ridging builds in Wednesday and temperatures begin to warm
each day through the weekend. Expect dry conditions areawide through
at least next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  41  61  41  /  30  20  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              72  44  62  42  /  30  40  20   0
CARLSBAD NM                64  41  66  42  /  20  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  82  50  68  46  /   0  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  44  62  43  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  37  59  42  /  20  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  39  61  40  /  30  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   66  34  59  33  /  10  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  43  62  42  /  20  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  68  42  61  42  /  20  20  10   0
WINK TX                    71  43  65  43  /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 270856
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
356 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The well advertised upper low has formed over NM and is slowly
drifting east. A strong cold front has made its way into northern
portions of the Permian Basin already this morning. This is a little
ahead of schedule so will trend to northerly winds quicker this
morning with much cooler conditions expected throughout the day.
We should only see about a 10-15 degree diurnal range across the
northern half of the area with temperatures warming a bit more
south of the front across the Rio Grande Valley. Northeasterly
winds will increase through the day, peaking this evening. This
may create some blowing dust, but visibilities shouldn`t be too
low given a good chance for rain to our north. Winds may locally
reach advisory criteria over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau
this evening so will need to monitor. Strong gap winds will also
develop at Guadalupe Pass, but are expected to remain just below
warning criteria.

Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected behind the
front today mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Clouds and
even some light showers will likely stick around through the day
Tuesday before clearing by Wednesday morning.

Unusually cold air is wrapping around the upper low with snow being
reported this morning across much of northern NM. Snow will even be
possible today across the TX Panhandle! With strong CAA expected
tonight, temperatures will drop within a few degrees of record lows.
Locations like Tatum and Marfa will likely see temperatures near
freezing early Tuesday morning. Not much of a warm-up is expected
Tuesday afternoon with clouds and light precipitation. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 degrees across most of the region with 70s
expected along the Rio Grande. The record low maximum temperature
for Midland Intl on Tuesday is 60 set in 1931. A sfc ridge settles
in Tuesday night with clearing skies and diminishing winds. This
sets up great conditions for strong radiational cooling. Hard to
believe, but we will need to monitor northern Lea county and the
Marfa Plateau for freezing temperatures again. All locations have
greened up significantly and have not had a freeze since March.

Upper ridging builds in Wednesday and temperatures begin to warm
each day through the weekend. Expect dry conditions areawide through
at least next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  41  61  41  /  30  20  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              72  44  62  42  /  30  40  20   0
CARLSBAD NM                64  41  66  42  /  20  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  82  50  68  46  /   0  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  44  62  43  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  37  59  42  /  20  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  39  61  40  /  30  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   66  34  59  33  /  10  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  43  62  42  /  20  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  68  42  61  42  /  20  20  10   0
WINK TX                    71  43  65  43  /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 270856
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
356 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The well advertised upper low has formed over NM and is slowly
drifting east. A strong cold front has made its way into northern
portions of the Permian Basin already this morning. This is a little
ahead of schedule so will trend to northerly winds quicker this
morning with much cooler conditions expected throughout the day.
We should only see about a 10-15 degree diurnal range across the
northern half of the area with temperatures warming a bit more
south of the front across the Rio Grande Valley. Northeasterly
winds will increase through the day, peaking this evening. This
may create some blowing dust, but visibilities shouldn`t be too
low given a good chance for rain to our north. Winds may locally
reach advisory criteria over the Davis Mountains and Marfa Plateau
this evening so will need to monitor. Strong gap winds will also
develop at Guadalupe Pass, but are expected to remain just below
warning criteria.

Showers and possibly a few thunderstorms are expected behind the
front today mainly across the northern Permian Basin. Clouds and
even some light showers will likely stick around through the day
Tuesday before clearing by Wednesday morning.

Unusually cold air is wrapping around the upper low with snow being
reported this morning across much of northern NM. Snow will even be
possible today across the TX Panhandle! With strong CAA expected
tonight, temperatures will drop within a few degrees of record lows.
Locations like Tatum and Marfa will likely see temperatures near
freezing early Tuesday morning. Not much of a warm-up is expected
Tuesday afternoon with clouds and light precipitation. Highs will
struggle to reach 60 degrees across most of the region with 70s
expected along the Rio Grande. The record low maximum temperature
for Midland Intl on Tuesday is 60 set in 1931. A sfc ridge settles
in Tuesday night with clearing skies and diminishing winds. This
sets up great conditions for strong radiational cooling. Hard to
believe, but we will need to monitor northern Lea county and the
Marfa Plateau for freezing temperatures again. All locations have
greened up significantly and have not had a freeze since March.

Upper ridging builds in Wednesday and temperatures begin to warm
each day through the weekend. Expect dry conditions areawide through
at least next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 64  41  61  41  /  30  20  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              72  44  62  42  /  30  40  20   0
CARLSBAD NM                64  41  66  42  /  20  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  82  50  68  46  /   0  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  44  62  43  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  37  59  42  /  20  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  39  61  40  /  30  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   66  34  59  33  /  10  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  43  62  42  /  20  20  10   0
ODESSA TX                  68  42  61  42  /  20  20  10   0
WINK TX                    71  43  65  43  /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 270507
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours,
except for a period of MVFR ceilings at KHOB and KCNM behind a cold
front roughly between 27/14Z to 27/17Z.  Otherwise, gusty northerly
winds will prevail at all terminals behind the front and last
through the day.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 270205
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
905 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Just a quick update this evening to account for the expiration of
the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory products that were in
effect. Otherwise, going forecast still looks good, as isolated
thunderstorms continue to be possible across southeast New Mexico
and the Permian Basin as an upper low moves over the area tonight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low moving across Southern New Mexico today will push
across the area this afternoon and Monday.  This low will bring
windy conditions and maybe a few storms to the CWA.  An upper ridge
begins to build in behind the low on Tuesday with warming
temperatures through the end of the week.

The low will push a Pacific front through the area today with a
W/SW wind sweeping across the area.  Strong wind aloft mixing down
to the surface and a tight pressure gradient... will continue the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis will produce windy
conditions.  Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains and Wind Advisory for the adjacent plains.
However on Monday a Polar front will move down across the region with
colder air and a gusty north wind behind it.  Could briefly see high
wind conditions through GDP again Monday but direction may not be
the best for a channeled wind through the pass so will not issue a
watch at this time.

Thunderstorms developed before noon over Central TX and back over
SW NM closer to the low.  Most of the storms this afternoon and
evening will be east of the area but some may clip the northern
CWA.  Currently dryline pushing to eastern edge of the area but some
storms possible behind it as low moves across.  Will carry a slight
chance across Northern Lea county and the NE Permian Basin... with
isolated pops across much of the rest of the area.  Any storm that
develops could be strong with a few possible severe mainly in the
east.  Monday and Monday night look to have a better chance of
storms/showers along and behind the front but mainly for the
Northern Permian Basin.  Could be some lingering showers NE on
Tuesday.  After that not expecting much chance of precip the rest of
the week.

Temperatures tongiht will have lows in the 40s and 50s with highs in
the 60s and 70s Monday.  On Tuesday most locations will have highs
in the 60s with post frontal conditions.  Latest guidance colder than
previous runs.  If this trend continues then highs Tuesday may end
up being in the 60s for most of the region... could even approach
record min max temps.  Will continue to see lows in the 30s at MRF
each night.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement for southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas through early this evening. West to southwest
winds are expected to increase to 20 to 35 mph and gusty in the
plains late this afternoon with higher amounts in the Mountains.
Rh/s have already dropped into the 10 to 20 percent range but should
bottom shortly due to an advancing cold front and increased cloud
cover. Since the strongest winds will occur after RH/s bottom out,
and fuels are still moist am not expecting an upgrade to a Red Flag
Warning at this time. In addition There may also be a few dry lightning
strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this afternoon which
would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front but 20 foot winds are not expected to be strong enough in
these areas for critical fire weather conditions. It will become windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  66  41  62  /  20  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              52  71  44  63  /  20  20  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                50  64  41  65  /  10  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  58  83  53  70  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  72  45  65  /  10  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  59  38  61  /  10  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   47  61  39  62  /  20  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   39  65  36  61  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    51  70  43  62  /  10  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  51  70  43  62  /  10  20  20  10
WINK TX                    52  71  44  67  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 270205
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
905 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Just a quick update this evening to account for the expiration of
the High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory products that were in
effect. Otherwise, going forecast still looks good, as isolated
thunderstorms continue to be possible across southeast New Mexico
and the Permian Basin as an upper low moves over the area tonight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low moving across Southern New Mexico today will push
across the area this afternoon and Monday.  This low will bring
windy conditions and maybe a few storms to the CWA.  An upper ridge
begins to build in behind the low on Tuesday with warming
temperatures through the end of the week.

The low will push a Pacific front through the area today with a
W/SW wind sweeping across the area.  Strong wind aloft mixing down
to the surface and a tight pressure gradient... will continue the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis will produce windy
conditions.  Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains and Wind Advisory for the adjacent plains.
However on Monday a Polar front will move down across the region with
colder air and a gusty north wind behind it.  Could briefly see high
wind conditions through GDP again Monday but direction may not be
the best for a channeled wind through the pass so will not issue a
watch at this time.

Thunderstorms developed before noon over Central TX and back over
SW NM closer to the low.  Most of the storms this afternoon and
evening will be east of the area but some may clip the northern
CWA.  Currently dryline pushing to eastern edge of the area but some
storms possible behind it as low moves across.  Will carry a slight
chance across Northern Lea county and the NE Permian Basin... with
isolated pops across much of the rest of the area.  Any storm that
develops could be strong with a few possible severe mainly in the
east.  Monday and Monday night look to have a better chance of
storms/showers along and behind the front but mainly for the
Northern Permian Basin.  Could be some lingering showers NE on
Tuesday.  After that not expecting much chance of precip the rest of
the week.

Temperatures tongiht will have lows in the 40s and 50s with highs in
the 60s and 70s Monday.  On Tuesday most locations will have highs
in the 60s with post frontal conditions.  Latest guidance colder than
previous runs.  If this trend continues then highs Tuesday may end
up being in the 60s for most of the region... could even approach
record min max temps.  Will continue to see lows in the 30s at MRF
each night.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement for southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas through early this evening. West to southwest
winds are expected to increase to 20 to 35 mph and gusty in the
plains late this afternoon with higher amounts in the Mountains.
Rh/s have already dropped into the 10 to 20 percent range but should
bottom shortly due to an advancing cold front and increased cloud
cover. Since the strongest winds will occur after RH/s bottom out,
and fuels are still moist am not expecting an upgrade to a Red Flag
Warning at this time. In addition There may also be a few dry lightning
strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this afternoon which
would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front but 20 foot winds are not expected to be strong enough in
these areas for critical fire weather conditions. It will become windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  66  41  62  /  20  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              52  71  44  63  /  20  20  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                50  64  41  65  /  10  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  58  83  53  70  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  72  45  65  /  10  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  59  38  61  /  10  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   47  61  39  62  /  20  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   39  65  36  61  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    51  70  43  62  /  10  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  51  70  43  62  /  10  20  20  10
WINK TX                    52  71  44  67  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 262245
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
545 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough over SE NM, while a sfc trough
centered near KOZA is resulting in strong westerly flow
w/afternoon mixing. To the north, a cold front is working south
thru the Texas Panhandle, and is expected to veer sfc flow to NW
as it moves into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Monday
morning. Forecast soundings develop a stratus deck w/fropa, and
suggest a few hrs of IFR cigs at KHOB, and brief MVFR at
KCNM/KMAF. All other terminals should remain VFR. Post-frontal
flow should be strong and gusty as sfc pressure grads are forecast
to be tight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low moving across Southern New Mexico today will push
across the area this afternoon and Monday.  This low will bring
windy conditions and maybe a few storms to the CWA.  An upper ridge
begins to build in behind the low on Tuesday with warming
temperatures through the end of the week.

The low will push a Pacific front through the area today with a
W/SW wind sweeping across the area.  Strong wind aloft mixing down
to the surface and a tight pressure gradient... will continue the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis will produce windy
conditions.  Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains and Wind Advisory for the adjacent plains.
However on Monday a Polar front will move down across the region with
colder air and a gusty north wind behind it.  Could briefly see high
wind conditions through GDP again Monday but direction may not be
the best for a channeled wind through the pass so will not issue a
watch at this time.

Thunderstorms developed before noon over Central TX and back over
SW NM closer to the low.  Most of the storms this afternoon and
evening will be east of the area but some may clip the northern
CWA.  Currently dryline pushing to eastern edge of the area but some
storms possible behind it as low moves across.  Will carry a slight
chance across Northern Lea county and the NE Permian Basin... with
isolated pops across much of the rest of the area.  Any storm that
develops could be strong with a few possible severe mainly in the
east.  Monday and Monday night look to have a better chance of
storms/showers along and behind the front but mainly for the
Northern Permian Basin.  Could be some lingering showers NE on
Tuesday.  After that not expecting much chance of precip the rest of
the week.

Temperatures tongiht will have lows in the 40s and 50s with highs in
the 60s and 70s Monday.  On Tuesday most locations will have highs
in the 60s with post frontal conditions.  Latest guidance colder than
previous runs.  If this trend continues then highs Tuesday may end
up being in the 60s for most of the region... could even approach
record min max temps.  Will continue to see lows in the 30s at MRF
each night.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement for southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas through early this evening. West to southwest
winds are expected to increase to 20 to 35 mph and gusty in the
plains late this afternoon with higher amounts in the Mountains.
Rh/s have already dropped into the 10 to 20 percent range but should
bottom shortly due to an advancing cold front and increased cloud
cover. Since the strongest winds will occur after RH/s bottom out,
and fuels are still moist am not expecting an upgrade to a Red Flag
Warning at this time. In addition There may also be a few dry lightning
strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this afternoon which
would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front but 20 foot winds are not expected to be strong enough in
these areas for critical fire weather conditions. It will become windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 262245
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
545 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

See 00Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

WV imagery shows the upper trough over SE NM, while a sfc trough
centered near KOZA is resulting in strong westerly flow
w/afternoon mixing. To the north, a cold front is working south
thru the Texas Panhandle, and is expected to veer sfc flow to NW
as it moves into West Texas and Southeast New Mexico Monday
morning. Forecast soundings develop a stratus deck w/fropa, and
suggest a few hrs of IFR cigs at KHOB, and brief MVFR at
KCNM/KMAF. All other terminals should remain VFR. Post-frontal
flow should be strong and gusty as sfc pressure grads are forecast
to be tight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 207 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low moving across Southern New Mexico today will push
across the area this afternoon and Monday.  This low will bring
windy conditions and maybe a few storms to the CWA.  An upper ridge
begins to build in behind the low on Tuesday with warming
temperatures through the end of the week.

The low will push a Pacific front through the area today with a
W/SW wind sweeping across the area.  Strong wind aloft mixing down
to the surface and a tight pressure gradient... will continue the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis will produce windy
conditions.  Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains and Wind Advisory for the adjacent plains.
However on Monday a Polar front will move down across the region with
colder air and a gusty north wind behind it.  Could briefly see high
wind conditions through GDP again Monday but direction may not be
the best for a channeled wind through the pass so will not issue a
watch at this time.

Thunderstorms developed before noon over Central TX and back over
SW NM closer to the low.  Most of the storms this afternoon and
evening will be east of the area but some may clip the northern
CWA.  Currently dryline pushing to eastern edge of the area but some
storms possible behind it as low moves across.  Will carry a slight
chance across Northern Lea county and the NE Permian Basin... with
isolated pops across much of the rest of the area.  Any storm that
develops could be strong with a few possible severe mainly in the
east.  Monday and Monday night look to have a better chance of
storms/showers along and behind the front but mainly for the
Northern Permian Basin.  Could be some lingering showers NE on
Tuesday.  After that not expecting much chance of precip the rest of
the week.

Temperatures tongiht will have lows in the 40s and 50s with highs in
the 60s and 70s Monday.  On Tuesday most locations will have highs
in the 60s with post frontal conditions.  Latest guidance colder than
previous runs.  If this trend continues then highs Tuesday may end
up being in the 60s for most of the region... could even approach
record min max temps.  Will continue to see lows in the 30s at MRF
each night.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement for southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas through early this evening. West to southwest
winds are expected to increase to 20 to 35 mph and gusty in the
plains late this afternoon with higher amounts in the Mountains.
Rh/s have already dropped into the 10 to 20 percent range but should
bottom shortly due to an advancing cold front and increased cloud
cover. Since the strongest winds will occur after RH/s bottom out,
and fuels are still moist am not expecting an upgrade to a Red Flag
Warning at this time. In addition There may also be a few dry lightning
strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this afternoon which
would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front but 20 foot winds are not expected to be strong enough in
these areas for critical fire weather conditions. It will become windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261907
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
207 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low moving across Southern New Mexico today will push
across the area this afternoon and Monday.  This low will bring
windy conditions and maybe a few storms to the CWA.  An upper ridge
begins to build in behind the low on Tuesday with warming
temperatures through the end of the week.

The low will push a Pacific front through the area today with a
W/SW wind sweeping across the area.  Strong wind aloft mixing down
to the surface and a tight pressure gradient... will continue the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis will produce windy
conditions.  Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains and Wind Advisory for the adjacent plains.
However on Monday a Polar front will move down across the region with
colder air and a gusty north wind behind it.  Could briefly see high
wind conditions through GDP again Monday but direction may not be
the best for a channeled wind through the pass so will not issue a
watch at this time.

Thunderstorms developed before noon over Central TX and back over
SW NM closer to the low.  Most of the storms this afternoon and
evening will be east of the area but some may clip the northern
CWA.  Currently dryline pushing to eastern edge of the area but some
storms possible behind it as low moves across.  Will carry a slight
chance across Northern Lea county and the NE Permian Basin... with
isolated pops across much of the rest of the area.  Any storm that
develops could be strong with a few possible severe mainly in the
east.  Monday and Monday night look to have a better chance of
storms/showers along and behind the front but mainly for the
Northern Permian Basin.  Could be some lingering showers NE on
Tuesday.  After that not expecting much chance of precip the rest of
the week.

Temperatures tongiht will have lows in the 40s and 50s with highs in
the 60s and 70s Monday.  On Tuesday most locations will have highs
in the 60s with post frontal conditions.  Latest guidance colder than
previous runs.  If this trend continues then highs Tuesday may end
up being in the 60s for most of the region... could even approach
record min max temps.  Will continue to see lows in the 30s at MRF
each night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement for southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas through early this evening. West to southwest
winds are expected to increase to 20 to 35 mph and gusty in the
plains late this afternoon with higher amounts in the Mountains.
Rh/s have already dropped into the 10 to 20 percent range but should
bottom shortly due to an advancing cold front and increased cloud
cover. Since the strongest winds will occur after RH/s bottom out,
and fuels are still moist am not expecting an upgrade to a Red Flag
Warning at this time. In addition There may also be a few dry lightning
strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this afternoon which
would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front but 20 foot winds are not expected to be strong enough in
these areas for critical fire weather conditions. It will become windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  66  41  62  /  20  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              52  71  44  63  /  20  20  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                50  64  41  65  /  10  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  58  83  53  70  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  72  45  65  /  10  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  59  38  61  /  10  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   47  61  39  62  /  20  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   39  65  36  61  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    51  70  43  62  /  10  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  51  70  43  62  /  10  20  20  10
WINK TX                    52  71  44  67  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

12/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261907
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
207 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low moving across Southern New Mexico today will push
across the area this afternoon and Monday.  This low will bring
windy conditions and maybe a few storms to the CWA.  An upper ridge
begins to build in behind the low on Tuesday with warming
temperatures through the end of the week.

The low will push a Pacific front through the area today with a
W/SW wind sweeping across the area.  Strong wind aloft mixing down
to the surface and a tight pressure gradient... will continue the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis will produce windy
conditions.  Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains and Wind Advisory for the adjacent plains.
However on Monday a Polar front will move down across the region with
colder air and a gusty north wind behind it.  Could briefly see high
wind conditions through GDP again Monday but direction may not be
the best for a channeled wind through the pass so will not issue a
watch at this time.

Thunderstorms developed before noon over Central TX and back over
SW NM closer to the low.  Most of the storms this afternoon and
evening will be east of the area but some may clip the northern
CWA.  Currently dryline pushing to eastern edge of the area but some
storms possible behind it as low moves across.  Will carry a slight
chance across Northern Lea county and the NE Permian Basin... with
isolated pops across much of the rest of the area.  Any storm that
develops could be strong with a few possible severe mainly in the
east.  Monday and Monday night look to have a better chance of
storms/showers along and behind the front but mainly for the
Northern Permian Basin.  Could be some lingering showers NE on
Tuesday.  After that not expecting much chance of precip the rest of
the week.

Temperatures tongiht will have lows in the 40s and 50s with highs in
the 60s and 70s Monday.  On Tuesday most locations will have highs
in the 60s with post frontal conditions.  Latest guidance colder than
previous runs.  If this trend continues then highs Tuesday may end
up being in the 60s for most of the region... could even approach
record min max temps.  Will continue to see lows in the 30s at MRF
each night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement for southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas through early this evening. West to southwest
winds are expected to increase to 20 to 35 mph and gusty in the
plains late this afternoon with higher amounts in the Mountains.
Rh/s have already dropped into the 10 to 20 percent range but should
bottom shortly due to an advancing cold front and increased cloud
cover. Since the strongest winds will occur after RH/s bottom out,
and fuels are still moist am not expecting an upgrade to a Red Flag
Warning at this time. In addition There may also be a few dry lightning
strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this afternoon which
would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front but 20 foot winds are not expected to be strong enough in
these areas for critical fire weather conditions. It will become windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  66  41  62  /  20  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              52  71  44  63  /  20  20  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                50  64  41  65  /  10  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  58  83  53  70  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  72  45  65  /  10  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  59  38  61  /  10  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   47  61  39  62  /  20  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   39  65  36  61  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    51  70  43  62  /  10  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  51  70  43  62  /  10  20  20  10
WINK TX                    52  71  44  67  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

12/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261907
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
207 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low moving across Southern New Mexico today will push
across the area this afternoon and Monday.  This low will bring
windy conditions and maybe a few storms to the CWA.  An upper ridge
begins to build in behind the low on Tuesday with warming
temperatures through the end of the week.

The low will push a Pacific front through the area today with a
W/SW wind sweeping across the area.  Strong wind aloft mixing down
to the surface and a tight pressure gradient... will continue the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis will produce windy
conditions.  Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains and Wind Advisory for the adjacent plains.
However on Monday a Polar front will move down across the region with
colder air and a gusty north wind behind it.  Could briefly see high
wind conditions through GDP again Monday but direction may not be
the best for a channeled wind through the pass so will not issue a
watch at this time.

Thunderstorms developed before noon over Central TX and back over
SW NM closer to the low.  Most of the storms this afternoon and
evening will be east of the area but some may clip the northern
CWA.  Currently dryline pushing to eastern edge of the area but some
storms possible behind it as low moves across.  Will carry a slight
chance across Northern Lea county and the NE Permian Basin... with
isolated pops across much of the rest of the area.  Any storm that
develops could be strong with a few possible severe mainly in the
east.  Monday and Monday night look to have a better chance of
storms/showers along and behind the front but mainly for the
Northern Permian Basin.  Could be some lingering showers NE on
Tuesday.  After that not expecting much chance of precip the rest of
the week.

Temperatures tongiht will have lows in the 40s and 50s with highs in
the 60s and 70s Monday.  On Tuesday most locations will have highs
in the 60s with post frontal conditions.  Latest guidance colder than
previous runs.  If this trend continues then highs Tuesday may end
up being in the 60s for most of the region... could even approach
record min max temps.  Will continue to see lows in the 30s at MRF
each night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement for southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas through early this evening. West to southwest
winds are expected to increase to 20 to 35 mph and gusty in the
plains late this afternoon with higher amounts in the Mountains.
Rh/s have already dropped into the 10 to 20 percent range but should
bottom shortly due to an advancing cold front and increased cloud
cover. Since the strongest winds will occur after RH/s bottom out,
and fuels are still moist am not expecting an upgrade to a Red Flag
Warning at this time. In addition There may also be a few dry lightning
strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this afternoon which
would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front but 20 foot winds are not expected to be strong enough in
these areas for critical fire weather conditions. It will become windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 50  66  41  62  /  20  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              52  71  44  63  /  20  20  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                50  64  41  65  /  10  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                  58  83  53  70  /  10  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  72  45  65  /  10  10  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          45  59  38  61  /  10  20  20  10
HOBBS NM                   47  61  39  62  /  20  30  20  10
MARFA TX                   39  65  36  61  /  10  10  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    51  70  43  62  /  10  20  20  20
ODESSA TX                  51  70  43  62  /  10  20  20  10
WINK TX                    52  71  44  67  /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

12/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261858
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
158 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low moving across Southern New Mexico today will push
across the area this afternoon and Monday.  This low will bring
windy conditions and maybe a few storms to the CWA.  An upper ridge
begins to build in behind the low on Tuesday with warming
temperatures through the end of the week.

The low will push a Pacific front through the area today with a
W/SW wind sweeping across the area.  Strong wind aloft mixing down
to the surface and a tight pressure gradient... will continue the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis will produce windy
conditions.  Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains and Wind Advisory for the adjacent plains.
However on Monday a Polar front will move down across the region with
colder air and a gusty north wind behind it.  Could briefly see high
wind conditions through GDP again Monday but direction may not be
the best for a channeled wind through the pass so will not issue a
watch at this time.

Thunderstorms developed before noon over Central TX and back over
SW NM closer to the low.  Most of the storms this afternoon and
evening will be east of the area but some may clip the northern
CWA.  Currently dryline pushing to eastern edge of the area but some
storms possible behind it as low moves across.  Will carry a slight
chance across Northern Lea county and the NE Permian Basin... with
isolated pops across much of the rest of the area.  Any storm that
develops could be strong with a few possible severe mainly in the
east.  Monday and Monday night look to have a better chance of
storms/showers along and behind the front but mainly for the
Northern Permian Basin.  Could be some lingering showers NE on
Tuesday.  After that not expecting much chance of precip the rest of
the week.

Temperatures tonight will have lows in the 40s and 50s with highs in
the 60s and 70s Monday.  On Tuesday most locations will have highs
in the 60s with post frontal conditions.  Latest guidance colder than
previous runs.  If this trend continues then highs Tuesday may end
up being in the 60s for most of the region... could even approach
record min max temps.  Will continue to see lows in the 30s at MRF
each night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement for southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas through early this evening. West to southwest
winds are expected to increase to 20 to 35 mph and gusty in the
plains late this afternoon with higher amounts in the Mountains.
Rh/s have already dropped into the 10 to 20 percent range but should
bottom shortly due to an advancing cold front and increased cloud
cover. Since the strongest winds will occur after RH/s bottom out,
and fuels are still moist am not expecting an upgrade to a Red Flag
Warning at this time. In addition There may also be a few dry lightning
strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this afternoon which
would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front but 20 foot winds are not expected to be strong enough in
these areas for critical fire weather conditions. It will become windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  50  66  41  /  10  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              86  52  71  44  /  10  20  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                75  50  64  41  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  92  58  83  53  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  54  72  45  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  45  59  38  /  20  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   75  47  61  39  /  10  20  30  20
MARFA TX                   73  39  65  36  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  51  70  43  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  81  51  70  43  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    85  52  71  44  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

12/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261858
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
158 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low moving across Southern New Mexico today will push
across the area this afternoon and Monday.  This low will bring
windy conditions and maybe a few storms to the CWA.  An upper ridge
begins to build in behind the low on Tuesday with warming
temperatures through the end of the week.

The low will push a Pacific front through the area today with a
W/SW wind sweeping across the area.  Strong wind aloft mixing down
to the surface and a tight pressure gradient... will continue the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis will produce windy
conditions.  Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains and Wind Advisory for the adjacent plains.
However on Monday a Polar front will move down across the region with
colder air and a gusty north wind behind it.  Could briefly see high
wind conditions through GDP again Monday but direction may not be
the best for a channeled wind through the pass so will not issue a
watch at this time.

Thunderstorms developed before noon over Central TX and back over
SW NM closer to the low.  Most of the storms this afternoon and
evening will be east of the area but some may clip the northern
CWA.  Currently dryline pushing to eastern edge of the area but some
storms possible behind it as low moves across.  Will carry a slight
chance across Northern Lea county and the NE Permian Basin... with
isolated pops across much of the rest of the area.  Any storm that
develops could be strong with a few possible severe mainly in the
east.  Monday and Monday night look to have a better chance of
storms/showers along and behind the front but mainly for the
Northern Permian Basin.  Could be some lingering showers NE on
Tuesday.  After that not expecting much chance of precip the rest of
the week.

Temperatures tonight will have lows in the 40s and 50s with highs in
the 60s and 70s Monday.  On Tuesday most locations will have highs
in the 60s with post frontal conditions.  Latest guidance colder than
previous runs.  If this trend continues then highs Tuesday may end
up being in the 60s for most of the region... could even approach
record min max temps.  Will continue to see lows in the 30s at MRF
each night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement for southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas through early this evening. West to southwest
winds are expected to increase to 20 to 35 mph and gusty in the
plains late this afternoon with higher amounts in the Mountains.
Rh/s have already dropped into the 10 to 20 percent range but should
bottom shortly due to an advancing cold front and increased cloud
cover. Since the strongest winds will occur after RH/s bottom out,
and fuels are still moist am not expecting an upgrade to a Red Flag
Warning at this time. In addition There may also be a few dry lightning
strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this afternoon which
would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front but 20 foot winds are not expected to be strong enough in
these areas for critical fire weather conditions. It will become windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  50  66  41  /  10  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              86  52  71  44  /  10  20  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                75  50  64  41  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  92  58  83  53  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  54  72  45  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  45  59  38  /  20  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   75  47  61  39  /  10  20  30  20
MARFA TX                   73  39  65  36  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  51  70  43  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  81  51  70  43  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    85  52  71  44  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

12/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261858
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
158 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A strong upper low moving across Southern New Mexico today will push
across the area this afternoon and Monday.  This low will bring
windy conditions and maybe a few storms to the CWA.  An upper ridge
begins to build in behind the low on Tuesday with warming
temperatures through the end of the week.

The low will push a Pacific front through the area today with a
W/SW wind sweeping across the area.  Strong wind aloft mixing down
to the surface and a tight pressure gradient... will continue the
High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe and Davis will produce windy
conditions.  Will continue the High Wind Warning for the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains and Wind Advisory for the adjacent plains.
However on Monday a Polar front will move down across the region with
colder air and a gusty north wind behind it.  Could briefly see high
wind conditions through GDP again Monday but direction may not be
the best for a channeled wind through the pass so will not issue a
watch at this time.

Thunderstorms developed before noon over Central TX and back over
SW NM closer to the low.  Most of the storms this afternoon and
evening will be east of the area but some may clip the northern
CWA.  Currently dryline pushing to eastern edge of the area but some
storms possible behind it as low moves across.  Will carry a slight
chance across Northern Lea county and the NE Permian Basin... with
isolated pops across much of the rest of the area.  Any storm that
develops could be strong with a few possible severe mainly in the
east.  Monday and Monday night look to have a better chance of
storms/showers along and behind the front but mainly for the
Northern Permian Basin.  Could be some lingering showers NE on
Tuesday.  After that not expecting much chance of precip the rest of
the week.

Temperatures tonight will have lows in the 40s and 50s with highs in
the 60s and 70s Monday.  On Tuesday most locations will have highs
in the 60s with post frontal conditions.  Latest guidance colder than
previous runs.  If this trend continues then highs Tuesday may end
up being in the 60s for most of the region... could even approach
record min max temps.  Will continue to see lows in the 30s at MRF
each night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement for southeast New Mexico
and much of west Texas through early this evening. West to southwest
winds are expected to increase to 20 to 35 mph and gusty in the
plains late this afternoon with higher amounts in the Mountains.
Rh/s have already dropped into the 10 to 20 percent range but should
bottom shortly due to an advancing cold front and increased cloud
cover. Since the strongest winds will occur after RH/s bottom out,
and fuels are still moist am not expecting an upgrade to a Red Flag
Warning at this time. In addition There may also be a few dry lightning
strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this afternoon which
would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front but 20 foot winds are not expected to be strong enough in
these areas for critical fire weather conditions. It will become windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 79  50  66  41  /  10  20  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              86  52  71  44  /  10  20  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                75  50  64  41  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  92  58  83  53  /  10  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  54  72  45  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  45  59  38  /  20  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   75  47  61  39  /  10  20  30  20
MARFA TX                   73  39  65  36  /  10  10  10  20
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  51  70  43  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  81  51  70  43  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    85  52  71  44  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

12/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261707
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong upper level storm system across New Mexico will move into the
Texas Panhandle this TAF cycle. West to southwest winds will increase to
generally 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts by mid afternoon. Confidence
is high enough to include a TEMPO group for MVFR conditions in TSRA
and blowing dust at KCNM, KHOB, KINK in the 21z-01z timeframe as
the intense storm system approaches. Winds will decrease shortly
after sunset but should remain elevated tonight at 10 to 20 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today.  However,
west to southwest winds will pickup, especially by early afternoon.
Sustained winds of 25 to 30kt will be common, with gusts as high as
45kt considering virga showers may enhance gusts at KCNM, KHOB and
perhaps KINK.  MVFR visibility in blowing dust will be included at
most terminals around 26/20Z until 27/00Z.  Winds should subside
around 27/00Z with VFR conditions expected thereafter.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

An upper level low is in the process of cutting off from the main
flow over New Mexico this morning. At the same time a sfc low was
strengthening over the TX Panhandle. Very strong mid level winds
mixing down along with a tight pressure gradient will lead to
blustery conditions across the western half the region. One
complicating factor will be an abundance of high clouds streaming
overhead...however this should be overcome by atmospheric mixing.
There is also a chance of virga showers and isolated thunderstorms
in this area which may help mix down even stronger winds to the
sfc. For the above reasons, will expand the High Wind Warning to
include higher elevations in the Davis Mountains along with the
Guadalupe Mountains and issue a Wind Advisory for the SE NM
plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor, and the
Marfa Plateau. Winds will quickly decrease by sunset as the
atmosphere begins to decouple.

In addition to the mostly dry thunderstorms expected to the west,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern
Permian Basin this afternoon along a Pacific cold front.
Temperatures will cool slightly today behind the front, especially
across SE NM. The upper low will drift across the TX Panhandle
Monday as a strong cold front accelerates south across the region.
High temperatures will likely be reached early in the day with
clouds and showers moving in from the north during the afternoon.
Like a broken record, strong winds are expected behind the front,
possibly nearing advisory criteria in some locations. Will need to
monitor Guadalupe Pass for gap winds if winds become more
northeasterly.

Temperatures will be chilly Tuesday as clouds and even some light
rain may be stubborn to clear the area. In fact, record low maximum
temperatures are possible Tuesday. After a cold morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound into the 70s during the afternoon. This trend
continues late in the week with temps climbing back to normal by
Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...

Windy conditions will affect the forecast area again today, with
higher speeds than Saturday expected.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for the Guadalupe Mtns and the higher elevations of the Davis
Mtns, and a Wind Advisory is in effect for locations along and west
of a Hobbs to Wink to Alpine line.  Sustained 20 foot winds will
likely rise to 20 mph sustained over the rest of the forecast area
too.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent over all but SE NM and the
Guadalupe Mtns, although 5 to 10 percent minimum RH/s are expected
in the Big Bend region by early afternoon.  RH/s will rise late this
afternoon over all but the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos due
to a Pacific cold front moving into the area.  Since the strongest
winds will occur after RH/s bottom out, fuels are still moist and
high temperatures will be near normal, will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for the entire forecast area.  There may also be a few dry
lightning strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this
afternoon which would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front.  since wind speeds do not appear strong enough in these
areas, critical conditions are not expected.  It will be windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.  Fire weather
concerns will begin to increase again Thursday as temps warm above
normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 261707
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong upper level storm system across New Mexico will move into the
Texas Panhandle this TAF cycle. West to southwest winds will increase to
generally 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts by mid afternoon. Confidence
is high enough to include a TEMPO group for MVFR conditions in TSRA
and blowing dust at KCNM, KHOB, KINK in the 21z-01z timeframe as
the intense storm system approaches. Winds will decrease shortly
after sunset but should remain elevated tonight at 10 to 20 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today.  However,
west to southwest winds will pickup, especially by early afternoon.
Sustained winds of 25 to 30kt will be common, with gusts as high as
45kt considering virga showers may enhance gusts at KCNM, KHOB and
perhaps KINK.  MVFR visibility in blowing dust will be included at
most terminals around 26/20Z until 27/00Z.  Winds should subside
around 27/00Z with VFR conditions expected thereafter.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

An upper level low is in the process of cutting off from the main
flow over New Mexico this morning. At the same time a sfc low was
strengthening over the TX Panhandle. Very strong mid level winds
mixing down along with a tight pressure gradient will lead to
blustery conditions across the western half the region. One
complicating factor will be an abundance of high clouds streaming
overhead...however this should be overcome by atmospheric mixing.
There is also a chance of virga showers and isolated thunderstorms
in this area which may help mix down even stronger winds to the
sfc. For the above reasons, will expand the High Wind Warning to
include higher elevations in the Davis Mountains along with the
Guadalupe Mountains and issue a Wind Advisory for the SE NM
plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor, and the
Marfa Plateau. Winds will quickly decrease by sunset as the
atmosphere begins to decouple.

In addition to the mostly dry thunderstorms expected to the west,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern
Permian Basin this afternoon along a Pacific cold front.
Temperatures will cool slightly today behind the front, especially
across SE NM. The upper low will drift across the TX Panhandle
Monday as a strong cold front accelerates south across the region.
High temperatures will likely be reached early in the day with
clouds and showers moving in from the north during the afternoon.
Like a broken record, strong winds are expected behind the front,
possibly nearing advisory criteria in some locations. Will need to
monitor Guadalupe Pass for gap winds if winds become more
northeasterly.

Temperatures will be chilly Tuesday as clouds and even some light
rain may be stubborn to clear the area. In fact, record low maximum
temperatures are possible Tuesday. After a cold morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound into the 70s during the afternoon. This trend
continues late in the week with temps climbing back to normal by
Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...

Windy conditions will affect the forecast area again today, with
higher speeds than Saturday expected.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for the Guadalupe Mtns and the higher elevations of the Davis
Mtns, and a Wind Advisory is in effect for locations along and west
of a Hobbs to Wink to Alpine line.  Sustained 20 foot winds will
likely rise to 20 mph sustained over the rest of the forecast area
too.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent over all but SE NM and the
Guadalupe Mtns, although 5 to 10 percent minimum RH/s are expected
in the Big Bend region by early afternoon.  RH/s will rise late this
afternoon over all but the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos due
to a Pacific cold front moving into the area.  Since the strongest
winds will occur after RH/s bottom out, fuels are still moist and
high temperatures will be near normal, will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for the entire forecast area.  There may also be a few dry
lightning strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this
afternoon which would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front.  since wind speeds do not appear strong enough in these
areas, critical conditions are not expected.  It will be windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.  Fire weather
concerns will begin to increase again Thursday as temps warm above
normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

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http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 261707
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong upper level storm system across New Mexico will move into the
Texas Panhandle this TAF cycle. West to southwest winds will increase to
generally 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts by mid afternoon. Confidence
is high enough to include a TEMPO group for MVFR conditions in TSRA
and blowing dust at KCNM, KHOB, KINK in the 21z-01z timeframe as
the intense storm system approaches. Winds will decrease shortly
after sunset but should remain elevated tonight at 10 to 20 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today.  However,
west to southwest winds will pickup, especially by early afternoon.
Sustained winds of 25 to 30kt will be common, with gusts as high as
45kt considering virga showers may enhance gusts at KCNM, KHOB and
perhaps KINK.  MVFR visibility in blowing dust will be included at
most terminals around 26/20Z until 27/00Z.  Winds should subside
around 27/00Z with VFR conditions expected thereafter.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

An upper level low is in the process of cutting off from the main
flow over New Mexico this morning. At the same time a sfc low was
strengthening over the TX Panhandle. Very strong mid level winds
mixing down along with a tight pressure gradient will lead to
blustery conditions across the western half the region. One
complicating factor will be an abundance of high clouds streaming
overhead...however this should be overcome by atmospheric mixing.
There is also a chance of virga showers and isolated thunderstorms
in this area which may help mix down even stronger winds to the
sfc. For the above reasons, will expand the High Wind Warning to
include higher elevations in the Davis Mountains along with the
Guadalupe Mountains and issue a Wind Advisory for the SE NM
plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor, and the
Marfa Plateau. Winds will quickly decrease by sunset as the
atmosphere begins to decouple.

In addition to the mostly dry thunderstorms expected to the west,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern
Permian Basin this afternoon along a Pacific cold front.
Temperatures will cool slightly today behind the front, especially
across SE NM. The upper low will drift across the TX Panhandle
Monday as a strong cold front accelerates south across the region.
High temperatures will likely be reached early in the day with
clouds and showers moving in from the north during the afternoon.
Like a broken record, strong winds are expected behind the front,
possibly nearing advisory criteria in some locations. Will need to
monitor Guadalupe Pass for gap winds if winds become more
northeasterly.

Temperatures will be chilly Tuesday as clouds and even some light
rain may be stubborn to clear the area. In fact, record low maximum
temperatures are possible Tuesday. After a cold morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound into the 70s during the afternoon. This trend
continues late in the week with temps climbing back to normal by
Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...

Windy conditions will affect the forecast area again today, with
higher speeds than Saturday expected.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for the Guadalupe Mtns and the higher elevations of the Davis
Mtns, and a Wind Advisory is in effect for locations along and west
of a Hobbs to Wink to Alpine line.  Sustained 20 foot winds will
likely rise to 20 mph sustained over the rest of the forecast area
too.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent over all but SE NM and the
Guadalupe Mtns, although 5 to 10 percent minimum RH/s are expected
in the Big Bend region by early afternoon.  RH/s will rise late this
afternoon over all but the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos due
to a Pacific cold front moving into the area.  Since the strongest
winds will occur after RH/s bottom out, fuels are still moist and
high temperatures will be near normal, will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for the entire forecast area.  There may also be a few dry
lightning strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this
afternoon which would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front.  since wind speeds do not appear strong enough in these
areas, critical conditions are not expected.  It will be windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.  Fire weather
concerns will begin to increase again Thursday as temps warm above
normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

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http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 261707
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1207 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Strong upper level storm system across New Mexico will move into the
Texas Panhandle this TAF cycle. West to southwest winds will increase to
generally 25 to 35 mph with higher gusts by mid afternoon. Confidence
is high enough to include a TEMPO group for MVFR conditions in TSRA
and blowing dust at KCNM, KHOB, KINK in the 21z-01z timeframe as
the intense storm system approaches. Winds will decrease shortly
after sunset but should remain elevated tonight at 10 to 20 mph.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today.  However,
west to southwest winds will pickup, especially by early afternoon.
Sustained winds of 25 to 30kt will be common, with gusts as high as
45kt considering virga showers may enhance gusts at KCNM, KHOB and
perhaps KINK.  MVFR visibility in blowing dust will be included at
most terminals around 26/20Z until 27/00Z.  Winds should subside
around 27/00Z with VFR conditions expected thereafter.  67

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

An upper level low is in the process of cutting off from the main
flow over New Mexico this morning. At the same time a sfc low was
strengthening over the TX Panhandle. Very strong mid level winds
mixing down along with a tight pressure gradient will lead to
blustery conditions across the western half the region. One
complicating factor will be an abundance of high clouds streaming
overhead...however this should be overcome by atmospheric mixing.
There is also a chance of virga showers and isolated thunderstorms
in this area which may help mix down even stronger winds to the
sfc. For the above reasons, will expand the High Wind Warning to
include higher elevations in the Davis Mountains along with the
Guadalupe Mountains and issue a Wind Advisory for the SE NM
plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor, and the
Marfa Plateau. Winds will quickly decrease by sunset as the
atmosphere begins to decouple.

In addition to the mostly dry thunderstorms expected to the west,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern
Permian Basin this afternoon along a Pacific cold front.
Temperatures will cool slightly today behind the front, especially
across SE NM. The upper low will drift across the TX Panhandle
Monday as a strong cold front accelerates south across the region.
High temperatures will likely be reached early in the day with
clouds and showers moving in from the north during the afternoon.
Like a broken record, strong winds are expected behind the front,
possibly nearing advisory criteria in some locations. Will need to
monitor Guadalupe Pass for gap winds if winds become more
northeasterly.

Temperatures will be chilly Tuesday as clouds and even some light
rain may be stubborn to clear the area. In fact, record low maximum
temperatures are possible Tuesday. After a cold morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound into the 70s during the afternoon. This trend
continues late in the week with temps climbing back to normal by
Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...

Windy conditions will affect the forecast area again today, with
higher speeds than Saturday expected.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for the Guadalupe Mtns and the higher elevations of the Davis
Mtns, and a Wind Advisory is in effect for locations along and west
of a Hobbs to Wink to Alpine line.  Sustained 20 foot winds will
likely rise to 20 mph sustained over the rest of the forecast area
too.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent over all but SE NM and the
Guadalupe Mtns, although 5 to 10 percent minimum RH/s are expected
in the Big Bend region by early afternoon.  RH/s will rise late this
afternoon over all but the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos due
to a Pacific cold front moving into the area.  Since the strongest
winds will occur after RH/s bottom out, fuels are still moist and
high temperatures will be near normal, will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for the entire forecast area.  There may also be a few dry
lightning strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this
afternoon which would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front.  since wind speeds do not appear strong enough in these
areas, critical conditions are not expected.  It will be windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.  Fire weather
concerns will begin to increase again Thursday as temps warm above
normal.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe
     Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY until 9 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves County and Upper
     Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

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http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 261047
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today.  However,
west to southwest winds will pickup, especially by early afternoon.
Sustained winds of 25 to 30kt will be common, with gusts as high as
45kt considering virga showers may enhance gusts at KCNM, KHOB and
perhaps KINK.  MVFR visibility in blowing dust will be included at
most terminals around 26/20Z until 27/00Z.  Winds should subside
around 27/00Z with VFR conditions expected thereafter.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

An upper level low is in the process of cutting off from the main
flow over New Mexico this morning. At the same time a sfc low was
strengthening over the TX Panhandle. Very strong mid level winds
mixing down along with a tight pressure gradient will lead to
blustery conditions across the western half the region. One
complicating factor will be an abundance of high clouds streaming
overhead...however this should be overcome by atmospheric mixing.
There is also a chance of virga showers and isolated thunderstorms
in this area which may help mix down even stronger winds to the
sfc. For the above reasons, will expand the High Wind Warning to
include higher elevations in the Davis Mountains along with the
Guadalupe Mountains and issue a Wind Advisory for the SE NM
plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor, and the
Marfa Plateau. Winds will quickly decrease by sunset as the
atmosphere begins to decouple.

In addition to the mostly dry thunderstorms expected to the west,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern
Permian Basin this afternoon along a Pacific cold front.
Temperatures will cool slightly today behind the front, especially
across SE NM. The upper low will drift across the TX Panhandle
Monday as a strong cold front accelerates south across the region.
High temperatures will likely be reached early in the day with
clouds and showers moving in from the north during the afternoon.
Like a broken record, strong winds are expected behind the front,
possibly nearing advisory criteria in some locations. Will need to
monitor Guadalupe Pass for gap winds if winds become more
northeasterly.

Temperatures will be chilly Tuesday as clouds and even some light
rain may be stubborn to clear the area. In fact, record low maximum
temperatures are possible Tuesday. After a cold morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound into the 70s during the afternoon. This trend
continues late in the week with temps climbing back to normal by
Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...

Windy conditions will affect the forecast area again today, with
higher speeds than Saturday expected.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for the Guadalupe Mtns and the higher elevations of the Davis
Mtns, and a Wind Advisory is in effect for locations along and west
of a Hobbs to Wink to Alpine line.  Sustained 20 foot winds will
likely rise to 20 mph sustained over the rest of the forecast area
too.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent over all but SE NM and the
Guadalupe Mtns, although 5 to 10 percent minimum RH/s are expected
in the Big Bend region by early afternoon.  RH/s will rise late this
afternoon over all but the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos due
to a Pacific cold front moving into the area.  Since the strongest
winds will occur after RH/s bottom out, fuels are still moist and
high temperatures will be near normal, will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for the entire forecast area.  There may also be a few dry
lightning strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this
afternoon which would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front.  since wind speeds do not appear strong enough in these
areas, critical conditions are not expected.  It will be windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.  Fire weather
concerns will begin to increase again Thursday as temps warm above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  48  70  41  /  10  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              84  50  75  44  /  10  20  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                72  48  67  42  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  89  54  84  50  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  51  74  46  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  42  64  38  /  20  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   72  45  65  39  /  10  20  30  20
MARFA TX                   73  40  67  39  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  49  74  43  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  80  49  73  43  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    79  50  74  44  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland





000
FXUS64 KMAF 261047
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today.  However,
west to southwest winds will pickup, especially by early afternoon.
Sustained winds of 25 to 30kt will be common, with gusts as high as
45kt considering virga showers may enhance gusts at KCNM, KHOB and
perhaps KINK.  MVFR visibility in blowing dust will be included at
most terminals around 26/20Z until 27/00Z.  Winds should subside
around 27/00Z with VFR conditions expected thereafter.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

An upper level low is in the process of cutting off from the main
flow over New Mexico this morning. At the same time a sfc low was
strengthening over the TX Panhandle. Very strong mid level winds
mixing down along with a tight pressure gradient will lead to
blustery conditions across the western half the region. One
complicating factor will be an abundance of high clouds streaming
overhead...however this should be overcome by atmospheric mixing.
There is also a chance of virga showers and isolated thunderstorms
in this area which may help mix down even stronger winds to the
sfc. For the above reasons, will expand the High Wind Warning to
include higher elevations in the Davis Mountains along with the
Guadalupe Mountains and issue a Wind Advisory for the SE NM
plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor, and the
Marfa Plateau. Winds will quickly decrease by sunset as the
atmosphere begins to decouple.

In addition to the mostly dry thunderstorms expected to the west,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern
Permian Basin this afternoon along a Pacific cold front.
Temperatures will cool slightly today behind the front, especially
across SE NM. The upper low will drift across the TX Panhandle
Monday as a strong cold front accelerates south across the region.
High temperatures will likely be reached early in the day with
clouds and showers moving in from the north during the afternoon.
Like a broken record, strong winds are expected behind the front,
possibly nearing advisory criteria in some locations. Will need to
monitor Guadalupe Pass for gap winds if winds become more
northeasterly.

Temperatures will be chilly Tuesday as clouds and even some light
rain may be stubborn to clear the area. In fact, record low maximum
temperatures are possible Tuesday. After a cold morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound into the 70s during the afternoon. This trend
continues late in the week with temps climbing back to normal by
Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...

Windy conditions will affect the forecast area again today, with
higher speeds than Saturday expected.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for the Guadalupe Mtns and the higher elevations of the Davis
Mtns, and a Wind Advisory is in effect for locations along and west
of a Hobbs to Wink to Alpine line.  Sustained 20 foot winds will
likely rise to 20 mph sustained over the rest of the forecast area
too.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent over all but SE NM and the
Guadalupe Mtns, although 5 to 10 percent minimum RH/s are expected
in the Big Bend region by early afternoon.  RH/s will rise late this
afternoon over all but the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos due
to a Pacific cold front moving into the area.  Since the strongest
winds will occur after RH/s bottom out, fuels are still moist and
high temperatures will be near normal, will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for the entire forecast area.  There may also be a few dry
lightning strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this
afternoon which would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front.  since wind speeds do not appear strong enough in these
areas, critical conditions are not expected.  It will be windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.  Fire weather
concerns will begin to increase again Thursday as temps warm above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  48  70  41  /  10  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              84  50  75  44  /  10  20  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                72  48  67  42  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  89  54  84  50  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  51  74  46  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  42  64  38  /  20  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   72  45  65  39  /  10  20  30  20
MARFA TX                   73  40  67  39  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  49  74  43  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  80  49  73  43  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    79  50  74  44  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

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http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 261047
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today.  However,
west to southwest winds will pickup, especially by early afternoon.
Sustained winds of 25 to 30kt will be common, with gusts as high as
45kt considering virga showers may enhance gusts at KCNM, KHOB and
perhaps KINK.  MVFR visibility in blowing dust will be included at
most terminals around 26/20Z until 27/00Z.  Winds should subside
around 27/00Z with VFR conditions expected thereafter.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

An upper level low is in the process of cutting off from the main
flow over New Mexico this morning. At the same time a sfc low was
strengthening over the TX Panhandle. Very strong mid level winds
mixing down along with a tight pressure gradient will lead to
blustery conditions across the western half the region. One
complicating factor will be an abundance of high clouds streaming
overhead...however this should be overcome by atmospheric mixing.
There is also a chance of virga showers and isolated thunderstorms
in this area which may help mix down even stronger winds to the
sfc. For the above reasons, will expand the High Wind Warning to
include higher elevations in the Davis Mountains along with the
Guadalupe Mountains and issue a Wind Advisory for the SE NM
plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor, and the
Marfa Plateau. Winds will quickly decrease by sunset as the
atmosphere begins to decouple.

In addition to the mostly dry thunderstorms expected to the west,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern
Permian Basin this afternoon along a Pacific cold front.
Temperatures will cool slightly today behind the front, especially
across SE NM. The upper low will drift across the TX Panhandle
Monday as a strong cold front accelerates south across the region.
High temperatures will likely be reached early in the day with
clouds and showers moving in from the north during the afternoon.
Like a broken record, strong winds are expected behind the front,
possibly nearing advisory criteria in some locations. Will need to
monitor Guadalupe Pass for gap winds if winds become more
northeasterly.

Temperatures will be chilly Tuesday as clouds and even some light
rain may be stubborn to clear the area. In fact, record low maximum
temperatures are possible Tuesday. After a cold morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound into the 70s during the afternoon. This trend
continues late in the week with temps climbing back to normal by
Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...

Windy conditions will affect the forecast area again today, with
higher speeds than Saturday expected.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for the Guadalupe Mtns and the higher elevations of the Davis
Mtns, and a Wind Advisory is in effect for locations along and west
of a Hobbs to Wink to Alpine line.  Sustained 20 foot winds will
likely rise to 20 mph sustained over the rest of the forecast area
too.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent over all but SE NM and the
Guadalupe Mtns, although 5 to 10 percent minimum RH/s are expected
in the Big Bend region by early afternoon.  RH/s will rise late this
afternoon over all but the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos due
to a Pacific cold front moving into the area.  Since the strongest
winds will occur after RH/s bottom out, fuels are still moist and
high temperatures will be near normal, will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for the entire forecast area.  There may also be a few dry
lightning strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this
afternoon which would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front.  since wind speeds do not appear strong enough in these
areas, critical conditions are not expected.  It will be windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.  Fire weather
concerns will begin to increase again Thursday as temps warm above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  48  70  41  /  10  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              84  50  75  44  /  10  20  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                72  48  67  42  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  89  54  84  50  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  51  74  46  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  42  64  38  /  20  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   72  45  65  39  /  10  20  30  20
MARFA TX                   73  40  67  39  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  49  74  43  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  80  49  73  43  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    79  50  74  44  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261047
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
547 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals today.  However,
west to southwest winds will pickup, especially by early afternoon.
Sustained winds of 25 to 30kt will be common, with gusts as high as
45kt considering virga showers may enhance gusts at KCNM, KHOB and
perhaps KINK.  MVFR visibility in blowing dust will be included at
most terminals around 26/20Z until 27/00Z.  Winds should subside
around 27/00Z with VFR conditions expected thereafter.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 451 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015/

An upper level low is in the process of cutting off from the main
flow over New Mexico this morning. At the same time a sfc low was
strengthening over the TX Panhandle. Very strong mid level winds
mixing down along with a tight pressure gradient will lead to
blustery conditions across the western half the region. One
complicating factor will be an abundance of high clouds streaming
overhead...however this should be overcome by atmospheric mixing.
There is also a chance of virga showers and isolated thunderstorms
in this area which may help mix down even stronger winds to the
sfc. For the above reasons, will expand the High Wind Warning to
include higher elevations in the Davis Mountains along with the
Guadalupe Mountains and issue a Wind Advisory for the SE NM
plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor, and the
Marfa Plateau. Winds will quickly decrease by sunset as the
atmosphere begins to decouple.

In addition to the mostly dry thunderstorms expected to the west,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern
Permian Basin this afternoon along a Pacific cold front.
Temperatures will cool slightly today behind the front, especially
across SE NM. The upper low will drift across the TX Panhandle
Monday as a strong cold front accelerates south across the region.
High temperatures will likely be reached early in the day with
clouds and showers moving in from the north during the afternoon.
Like a broken record, strong winds are expected behind the front,
possibly nearing advisory criteria in some locations. Will need to
monitor Guadalupe Pass for gap winds if winds become more
northeasterly.

Temperatures will be chilly Tuesday as clouds and even some light
rain may be stubborn to clear the area. In fact, record low maximum
temperatures are possible Tuesday. After a cold morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound into the 70s during the afternoon. This trend
continues late in the week with temps climbing back to normal by
Friday.

FIRE WEATHER...

Windy conditions will affect the forecast area again today, with
higher speeds than Saturday expected.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for the Guadalupe Mtns and the higher elevations of the Davis
Mtns, and a Wind Advisory is in effect for locations along and west
of a Hobbs to Wink to Alpine line.  Sustained 20 foot winds will
likely rise to 20 mph sustained over the rest of the forecast area
too.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent over all but SE NM and the
Guadalupe Mtns, although 5 to 10 percent minimum RH/s are expected
in the Big Bend region by early afternoon.  RH/s will rise late this
afternoon over all but the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos due
to a Pacific cold front moving into the area.  Since the strongest
winds will occur after RH/s bottom out, fuels are still moist and
high temperatures will be near normal, will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for the entire forecast area.  There may also be a few dry
lightning strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this
afternoon which would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front.  since wind speeds do not appear strong enough in these
areas, critical conditions are not expected.  It will be windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.  Fire weather
concerns will begin to increase again Thursday as temps warm above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  48  70  41  /  10  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              84  50  75  44  /  10  20  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                72  48  67  42  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  89  54  84  50  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  51  74  46  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  42  64  38  /  20  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   72  45  65  39  /  10  20  30  20
MARFA TX                   73  40  67  39  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  49  74  43  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  80  49  73  43  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    79  50  74  44  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level low is in the process of cutting off from the main
flow over New Mexico this morning. At the same time a sfc low was
strengthening over the TX Panhandle. Very strong mid level winds
mixing down along with a tight pressure gradient will lead to
blustery conditions across the western half the region. One
complicating factor will be an abundance of high clouds streaming
overhead...however this should be overcome by atmospheric mixing.
There is also a chance of virga showers and isolated thunderstorms
in this area which may help mix down even stronger winds to the
sfc. For the above reasons, will expand the High Wind Warning to
include higher elevations in the Davis Mountains along with the
Guadalupe Mountains and issue a Wind Advisory for the SE NM
plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor, and the
Marfa Plateau. Winds will quickly decrease by sunset as the
atmosphere begins to decouple.

In addition to the mostly dry thunderstorms expected to the west,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern
Permian Basin this afternoon along a Pacific cold front.
Temperatures will cool slightly today behind the front, especially
across SE NM. The upper low will drift across the TX Panhandle
Monday as a strong cold front accelerates south across the region.
High temperatures will likely be reached early in the day with
clouds and showers moving in from the north during the afternoon.
Like a broken record, strong winds are expected behind the front,
possibly nearing advisory criteria in some locations. Will need to
monitor Guadalupe Pass for gap winds if winds become more
northeasterly.

Temperatures will be chilly Tuesday as clouds and even some light
rain may be stubborn to clear the area. In fact, record low maximum
temperatures are possible Tuesday. After a cold morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound into the 70s during the afternoon. This trend
continues late in the week with temps climbing back to normal by
Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Windy conditions will affect the forecast area again today, with
higher speeds than Saturday expected.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for the Guadalupe Mtns and the higher elevations of the Davis
Mtns, and a Wind Advisory is in effect for locations along and west
of a Hobbs to Wink to Alpine line.  Sustained 20 foot winds will
likely rise to 20 mph sustained over the rest of the forecast area
too.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent over all but SE NM and the
Guadalupe Mtns, although 5 to 10 percent minimum RH/s are expected
in the Big Bend region by early afternoon.  RH/s will rise late this
afternoon over all but the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos due
to a Pacific cold front moving into the area.  Since the strongest
winds will occur after RH/s bottom out, fuels are still moist and
high temperatures will be near normal, will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for the entire forecast area.  There may also be a few dry
lightning strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this
afternoon which would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front.  since wind speeds do not appear strong enough in these
areas, critical conditions are not expected.  It will be windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.  Fire weather
concerns will begin to increase again Thursday as temps warm above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  48  70  41  /  10  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              84  50  75  44  /  10  20  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                72  48  67  42  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  89  54  84  50  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  51  74  46  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  42  64  38  /  20  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   72  45  65  39  /  10  20  30  20
MARFA TX                   73  40  67  39  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  49  74  43  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  80  49  73  43  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    79  50  74  44  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260951
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
451 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level low is in the process of cutting off from the main
flow over New Mexico this morning. At the same time a sfc low was
strengthening over the TX Panhandle. Very strong mid level winds
mixing down along with a tight pressure gradient will lead to
blustery conditions across the western half the region. One
complicating factor will be an abundance of high clouds streaming
overhead...however this should be overcome by atmospheric mixing.
There is also a chance of virga showers and isolated thunderstorms
in this area which may help mix down even stronger winds to the
sfc. For the above reasons, will expand the High Wind Warning to
include higher elevations in the Davis Mountains along with the
Guadalupe Mountains and issue a Wind Advisory for the SE NM
plains, Upper Trans Pecos, Van Horn/Highway 54 corridor, and the
Marfa Plateau. Winds will quickly decrease by sunset as the
atmosphere begins to decouple.

In addition to the mostly dry thunderstorms expected to the west,
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the far eastern
Permian Basin this afternoon along a Pacific cold front.
Temperatures will cool slightly today behind the front, especially
across SE NM. The upper low will drift across the TX Panhandle
Monday as a strong cold front accelerates south across the region.
High temperatures will likely be reached early in the day with
clouds and showers moving in from the north during the afternoon.
Like a broken record, strong winds are expected behind the front,
possibly nearing advisory criteria in some locations. Will need to
monitor Guadalupe Pass for gap winds if winds become more
northeasterly.

Temperatures will be chilly Tuesday as clouds and even some light
rain may be stubborn to clear the area. In fact, record low maximum
temperatures are possible Tuesday. After a cold morning Wednesday,
temperatures rebound into the 70s during the afternoon. This trend
continues late in the week with temps climbing back to normal by
Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Windy conditions will affect the forecast area again today, with
higher speeds than Saturday expected.  A High Wind Warning is in
effect for the Guadalupe Mtns and the higher elevations of the Davis
Mtns, and a Wind Advisory is in effect for locations along and west
of a Hobbs to Wink to Alpine line.  Sustained 20 foot winds will
likely rise to 20 mph sustained over the rest of the forecast area
too.  RH/s will drop to 10 to 15 percent over all but SE NM and the
Guadalupe Mtns, although 5 to 10 percent minimum RH/s are expected
in the Big Bend region by early afternoon.  RH/s will rise late this
afternoon over all but the Big Bend region and Lower Trans Pecos due
to a Pacific cold front moving into the area.  Since the strongest
winds will occur after RH/s bottom out, fuels are still moist and
high temperatures will be near normal, will issue a Fire Danger
Statement for the entire forecast area.  There may also be a few dry
lightning strikes over the Guadalupe`s and SE NM Plains this
afternoon which would enhance wind gusts.

Recovery will be poor to fair tonight with a cold front moving south
through the area Monday.  RH/s of 10 to 15 percent will occur over
the Big Bend region and Lower trans Pecos Monday afternoon, ahead of
the front.  since wind speeds do not appear strong enough in these
areas, critical conditions are not expected.  It will be windy
behind the front, but RH/s will rise with below normal temperatures
expected areawide Monday night through Wednesday.  Fire weather
concerns will begin to increase again Thursday as temps warm above
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 78  48  70  41  /  10  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              84  50  75  44  /  10  20  20  30
CARLSBAD NM                72  48  67  42  /  20  10  20  20
DRYDEN TX                  89  54  84  50  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           83  51  74  46  /  10  10  10  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          64  42  64  38  /  20  10  20  20
HOBBS NM                   72  45  65  39  /  10  20  30  20
MARFA TX                   73  40  67  39  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  49  74  43  /  10  10  20  20
ODESSA TX                  80  49  73  43  /  10  10  20  20
WINK TX                    79  50  74  44  /  10  10  10  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM MDT this
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     WIND ADVISORY from Noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 9 PM
     CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
     Davis/Apache Mountains Area...Guadalupe Mountains.

     WIND ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Loving...Marfa Plateau...Reeves
     County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway 54
     Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight and Sunday morning.  However,
west to southwest winds will pickup at all terminals, especially by
early afternoon.  Sustained winds of 25 to 30kt will be common with
gusts near 40kt considering virga showers which may enhance gusts.
MVFR visibility in blowing dust will be included at most terminals
around 26/20Z until 27/00Z.  winds should subside around 27/00Z with
VFR conditions expected thereafter.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight and Sunday morning.  However,
west to southwest winds will pickup at all terminals, especially by
early afternoon.  Sustained winds of 25 to 30kt will be common with
gusts near 40kt considering virga showers which may enhance gusts.
MVFR visibility in blowing dust will be included at most terminals
around 26/20Z until 27/00Z.  winds should subside around 27/00Z with
VFR conditions expected thereafter.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260514
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1214 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail overnight and Sunday morning.  However,
west to southwest winds will pickup at all terminals, especially by
early afternoon.  Sustained winds of 25 to 30kt will be common with
gusts near 40kt considering virga showers which may enhance gusts.
MVFR visibility in blowing dust will be included at most terminals
around 26/20Z until 27/00Z.  winds should subside around 27/00Z with
VFR conditions expected thereafter.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260235
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
935 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A rather bromidic night is shaping up for West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, weather-wise, w/satellite imagery showing CAVU
conditions and sfc obs carrying light, dry SW flow. Clear skies,
light winds, and low dewpoints will promote good radiational
cooling overnight, and the latest NAM suggests overnight mins can
be lowered a degree or two. We`ll do an update for that, and
adjust other parameters as necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE STORMS AND WIND TO THE AREA YESTERDAY
HAS QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  BEHIND
IT HAVE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GETS HERE.  THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF
LOW OVER NM SUNDAY AND SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGE RETURNS WITH DRY WX FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

HAVE SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SOME WIND BUT NOT AS MUCH AS FRIDAY.  AS
OF 18Z GDP IS APPROACHING HIGH WIND SPEEDS AND THEY MAY BRIEFLY
REACH 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD NOT BE FOR A SUSTAINED AMOUNT
OF TIME.  INHERITED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
FOR SUNDAY AS IT APPEARS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK UNDER THE BASE
OF THE CUT OFF LOW AND ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS... UPGRADING
THIS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.  IT APPEARS A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST WIND AND SOME COOLING.  A
STRONGER POLAR FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.

SHOULD HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.  MARFA GOT DOWN TO 34 DEGREES THIS MORNING AND
MAY DROP INTO THE 30S THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.  HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.  WARMED TEMPS MONDAY AS BELIEVE
FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING DOWN HERE.  WILL HAVE A NORTH
WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH 70S CLOSER TO THE
RIO GRANDE.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING THAT GOOD THIS WEEK.  STORM CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ALSO HAVE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  A LITTLE PRECIP
MAY LINGER OVER THE NE TUESDAY BUT AFTER THAT THE FORECAST IS DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING DUE TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND LOW RH/S BUT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES, GREENUP
OF FOLIAGE AND ERCS BELOW 50 PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

IT WILL BE WINDIER AND CONTINUED DRY SUNDAY BUT SIMILAR CONCERNS
WILL EXIST THAT PRECLUDE A WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME FOR WEST
TEXAS AND OR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO ONLY BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS, WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND ERCS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 50.  WILL PROBABLY ISSUE ANOTHER FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  81  50  76  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              51  85  54  79  /   0  10  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                51  76  47  76  /   0  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  58  89  57  87  /   0  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  85  54  80  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  67  42  70  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   49  76  47  74  /   0  10  10  30
MARFA TX                   36  76  37  71  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  83  52  78  /   0  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  56  82  51  78  /   0  10  20  10
WINK TX                    50  82  50  80  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260235
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
935 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A rather bromidic night is shaping up for West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, weather-wise, w/satellite imagery showing CAVU
conditions and sfc obs carrying light, dry SW flow. Clear skies,
light winds, and low dewpoints will promote good radiational
cooling overnight, and the latest NAM suggests overnight mins can
be lowered a degree or two. We`ll do an update for that, and
adjust other parameters as necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE STORMS AND WIND TO THE AREA YESTERDAY
HAS QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  BEHIND
IT HAVE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GETS HERE.  THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF
LOW OVER NM SUNDAY AND SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGE RETURNS WITH DRY WX FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

HAVE SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SOME WIND BUT NOT AS MUCH AS FRIDAY.  AS
OF 18Z GDP IS APPROACHING HIGH WIND SPEEDS AND THEY MAY BRIEFLY
REACH 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD NOT BE FOR A SUSTAINED AMOUNT
OF TIME.  INHERITED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
FOR SUNDAY AS IT APPEARS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK UNDER THE BASE
OF THE CUT OFF LOW AND ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS... UPGRADING
THIS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.  IT APPEARS A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST WIND AND SOME COOLING.  A
STRONGER POLAR FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.

SHOULD HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.  MARFA GOT DOWN TO 34 DEGREES THIS MORNING AND
MAY DROP INTO THE 30S THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.  HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.  WARMED TEMPS MONDAY AS BELIEVE
FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING DOWN HERE.  WILL HAVE A NORTH
WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH 70S CLOSER TO THE
RIO GRANDE.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING THAT GOOD THIS WEEK.  STORM CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ALSO HAVE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  A LITTLE PRECIP
MAY LINGER OVER THE NE TUESDAY BUT AFTER THAT THE FORECAST IS DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING DUE TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND LOW RH/S BUT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES, GREENUP
OF FOLIAGE AND ERCS BELOW 50 PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

IT WILL BE WINDIER AND CONTINUED DRY SUNDAY BUT SIMILAR CONCERNS
WILL EXIST THAT PRECLUDE A WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME FOR WEST
TEXAS AND OR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO ONLY BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS, WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND ERCS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 50.  WILL PROBABLY ISSUE ANOTHER FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  81  50  76  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              51  85  54  79  /   0  10  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                51  76  47  76  /   0  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  58  89  57  87  /   0  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  85  54  80  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  67  42  70  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   49  76  47  74  /   0  10  10  30
MARFA TX                   36  76  37  71  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  83  52  78  /   0  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  56  82  51  78  /   0  10  20  10
WINK TX                    50  82  50  80  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260235
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
935 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A rather bromidic night is shaping up for West Texas and Southeast
New Mexico, weather-wise, w/satellite imagery showing CAVU
conditions and sfc obs carrying light, dry SW flow. Clear skies,
light winds, and low dewpoints will promote good radiational
cooling overnight, and the latest NAM suggests overnight mins can
be lowered a degree or two. We`ll do an update for that, and
adjust other parameters as necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE STORMS AND WIND TO THE AREA YESTERDAY
HAS QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  BEHIND
IT HAVE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GETS HERE.  THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF
LOW OVER NM SUNDAY AND SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGE RETURNS WITH DRY WX FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

HAVE SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SOME WIND BUT NOT AS MUCH AS FRIDAY.  AS
OF 18Z GDP IS APPROACHING HIGH WIND SPEEDS AND THEY MAY BRIEFLY
REACH 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD NOT BE FOR A SUSTAINED AMOUNT
OF TIME.  INHERITED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
FOR SUNDAY AS IT APPEARS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK UNDER THE BASE
OF THE CUT OFF LOW AND ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS... UPGRADING
THIS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.  IT APPEARS A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST WIND AND SOME COOLING.  A
STRONGER POLAR FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.

SHOULD HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.  MARFA GOT DOWN TO 34 DEGREES THIS MORNING AND
MAY DROP INTO THE 30S THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.  HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.  WARMED TEMPS MONDAY AS BELIEVE
FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING DOWN HERE.  WILL HAVE A NORTH
WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH 70S CLOSER TO THE
RIO GRANDE.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING THAT GOOD THIS WEEK.  STORM CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ALSO HAVE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  A LITTLE PRECIP
MAY LINGER OVER THE NE TUESDAY BUT AFTER THAT THE FORECAST IS DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING DUE TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND LOW RH/S BUT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES, GREENUP
OF FOLIAGE AND ERCS BELOW 50 PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

IT WILL BE WINDIER AND CONTINUED DRY SUNDAY BUT SIMILAR CONCERNS
WILL EXIST THAT PRECLUDE A WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME FOR WEST
TEXAS AND OR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO ONLY BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS, WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND ERCS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 50.  WILL PROBABLY ISSUE ANOTHER FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  81  50  76  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              51  85  54  79  /   0  10  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                51  76  47  76  /   0  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  58  89  57  87  /   0  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           52  85  54  80  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  67  42  70  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   49  76  47  74  /   0  10  10  30
MARFA TX                   36  76  37  71  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    52  83  52  78  /   0  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  56  82  51  78  /   0  10  20  10
WINK TX                    50  82  50  80  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 252337 CCA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, AND BECOMING GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN BY MID- MORNING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE STORMS AND WIND TO THE AREA YESTERDAY
HAS QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  BEHIND
IT HAVE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GETS HERE.  THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF
LOW OVER NM SUNDAY AND SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGE RETURNS WITH DRY WX FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

HAVE SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SOME WIND BUT NOT AS MUCH AS FRIDAY.  AS
OF 18Z GDP IS APPROACHING HIGH WIND SPEEDS AND THEY MAY BRIEFLY
REACH 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD NOT BE FOR A SUSTAINED AMOUNT
OF TIME.  INHERITED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
FOR SUNDAY AS IT APPEARS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK UNDER THE BASE
OF THE CUT OFF LOW AND ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS... UPGRADING
THIS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.  IT APPEARS A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST WIND AND SOME COOLING.  A
STRONGER POLAR FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.

SHOULD HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.  MARFA GOT DOWN TO 34 DEGREES THIS MORNING AND
MAY DROP INTO THE 30S THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.  HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.  WARMED TEMPS MONDAY AS BELIEVE
FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING DOWN HERE.  WILL HAVE A NORTH
WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH 70S CLOSER TO THE
RIO GRANDE.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING THAT GOOD THIS WEEK.  STORM CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ALSO HAVE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  A LITTLE PRECIP
MAY LINGER OVER THE NE TUESDAY BUT AFTER THAT THE FORECAST IS DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING DUE TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND LOW RH/S BUT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES, GREENUP
OF FOLIAGE AND ERCS BELOW 50 PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

IT WILL BE WINDIER AND CONTINUED DRY SUNDAY BUT SIMILAR CONCERNS
WILL EXIST THAT PRECLUDE A WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME FOR WEST
TEXAS AND OR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO ONLY BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS, WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND ERCS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 50.  WILL PROBABLY ISSUE ANOTHER FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.


&&

$$

84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 252337 CCA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
636 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

PLEASE SEE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING, AND BECOMING GUSTY ONCE
AGAIN BY MID- MORNING ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW THAT BROUGHT THE STORMS AND WIND TO THE AREA YESTERDAY
HAS QUICKLY MOVED OFF TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY.  BEHIND
IT HAVE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST GETS HERE.  THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CUT OFF
LOW OVER NM SUNDAY AND SLOWLY WOBBLES ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER THAT UPPER RIDGE RETURNS WITH DRY WX FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK.

HAVE SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH SOME WIND BUT NOT AS MUCH AS FRIDAY.  AS
OF 18Z GDP IS APPROACHING HIGH WIND SPEEDS AND THEY MAY BRIEFLY
REACH 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD NOT BE FOR A SUSTAINED AMOUNT
OF TIME.  INHERITED A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
FOR SUNDAY AS IT APPEARS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK UNDER THE BASE
OF THE CUT OFF LOW AND ACROSS THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS... UPGRADING
THIS TO A HIGH WIND WARNING.  IT APPEARS A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH A WEST WIND AND SOME COOLING.  A
STRONGER POLAR FRONT MOVES DOWN INTO THE AREA MONDAY PASSING THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE EVENING.

SHOULD HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE 50S.  MARFA GOT DOWN TO 34 DEGREES THIS MORNING AND
MAY DROP INTO THE 30S THE NEXT COUPLE OF MORNINGS.  HIGHS SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S.  WARMED TEMPS MONDAY AS BELIEVE
FRONT WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER GETTING DOWN HERE.  WILL HAVE A NORTH
WIND ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 60S WITH 70S CLOSER TO THE
RIO GRANDE.  TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO RECOVER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

RAIN CHANCES NOT LOOKING THAT GOOD THIS WEEK.  STORM CHANCES RETURN
TO THE FORECAST IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY WITH LOW POPS SPREADING ACROSS
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  ALSO HAVE STORM CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.  A LITTLE PRECIP
MAY LINGER OVER THE NE TUESDAY BUT AFTER THAT THE FORECAST IS DRY.

FIRE WEATHER...
WILL CONTINUE THE FIRE DANGER STATEMENT THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
FOR THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS, GUADALUPE AND DAVIS MOUNTAINS,
UPPER TRANS PECOS, AND WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN. NEAR CRITICAL TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE DEVELOPING DUE TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS AND LOW RH/S BUT NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES, GREENUP
OF FOLIAGE AND ERCS BELOW 50 PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

IT WILL BE WINDIER AND CONTINUED DRY SUNDAY BUT SIMILAR CONCERNS
WILL EXIST THAT PRECLUDE A WATCH OR WARNING AT THIS TIME FOR WEST
TEXAS AND OR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO ONLY BE NEAR NORMAL LEVELS, WITH RECENT RAINFALL AND ERCS STILL
EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 50.  WILL PROBABLY ISSUE ANOTHER FIRE
DANGER STATEMENT.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.


&&

$$

84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 252335
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail, with gusty winds southwest winds
diminishing after sunset this evening, and becoming gusty once
again by mid-morning on Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday
has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today.  Behind
it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the
Intermountain West gets here.  This trough develops into a cut off
low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next
couple of days.  After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the
rest of the week.

Have sunny skies today with some wind but not as much as Friday.  As
of 18z GDP is approaching high wind speeds and they may briefly
reach 40 mph this afternoon but should not be for a sustained amount
of time.  Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains
for Sunday as it appears a strong shortwave will track under the base
of the cut off low and across the Guadalupe Mountains... upgrading
this to a High Wind Warning.  It appears a Pacific front will move
across the area on Sunday with a west wind and some cooling.  A
stronger polar front moves down into the area Monday passing through
the region during the evening.

Should have near normal temperatures this evening with lows
generally in the 50s.  Marfa got down to 34 degrees this morning and
may drop into the 30s the next couple of mornings.  Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Warmed temps Monday as believe
front will be a little slower getting down here.  Will have a north
wind on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 60s with 70s closer to the
Rio Grande.  Temperatures begin to recover Wednesday through the end
of the week as ridge builds over the area.

Rain chances not looking that good this week.  Storm chances return
to the forecast in the West on Sunday with low pops spreading across
the area Sunday night.  Also have storm chances across the north
Monday and Monday night along and behind the front.  A little precip
may linger over the NE Tuesday but after that the forecast is dry.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement through early this evening
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe and Davis mountains,
Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are developing due to breezy
conditions and low rh/s but near normal high temperatures, greenup
of foliage and ERCs below 50 preclude an upgrade to a warning.

It will be windier and continued dry Sunday but similar concerns
will exist that preclude a watch or warning at this time for west
Texas and or southeast New Mexico. High temperatures are still expected
to only be near normal levels, with recent rainfall and ERCs still
expected to be less than 50.  Will probably issue another Fire
Danger Statement.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 252335
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail, with gusty winds southwest winds
diminishing after sunset this evening, and becoming gusty once
again by mid-morning on Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday
has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today.  Behind
it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the
Intermountain West gets here.  This trough develops into a cut off
low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next
couple of days.  After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the
rest of the week.

Have sunny skies today with some wind but not as much as Friday.  As
of 18z GDP is approaching high wind speeds and they may briefly
reach 40 mph this afternoon but should not be for a sustained amount
of time.  Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains
for Sunday as it appears a strong shortwave will track under the base
of the cut off low and across the Guadalupe Mountains... upgrading
this to a High Wind Warning.  It appears a Pacific front will move
across the area on Sunday with a west wind and some cooling.  A
stronger polar front moves down into the area Monday passing through
the region during the evening.

Should have near normal temperatures this evening with lows
generally in the 50s.  Marfa got down to 34 degrees this morning and
may drop into the 30s the next couple of mornings.  Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Warmed temps Monday as believe
front will be a little slower getting down here.  Will have a north
wind on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 60s with 70s closer to the
Rio Grande.  Temperatures begin to recover Wednesday through the end
of the week as ridge builds over the area.

Rain chances not looking that good this week.  Storm chances return
to the forecast in the West on Sunday with low pops spreading across
the area Sunday night.  Also have storm chances across the north
Monday and Monday night along and behind the front.  A little precip
may linger over the NE Tuesday but after that the forecast is dry.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement through early this evening
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe and Davis mountains,
Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are developing due to breezy
conditions and low rh/s but near normal high temperatures, greenup
of foliage and ERCs below 50 preclude an upgrade to a warning.

It will be windier and continued dry Sunday but similar concerns
will exist that preclude a watch or warning at this time for west
Texas and or southeast New Mexico. High temperatures are still expected
to only be near normal levels, with recent rainfall and ERCs still
expected to be less than 50.  Will probably issue another Fire
Danger Statement.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84

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Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 252335
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
635 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail, with gusty winds southwest winds
diminishing after sunset this evening, and becoming gusty once
again by mid-morning on Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 219 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday
has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today.  Behind
it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the
Intermountain West gets here.  This trough develops into a cut off
low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next
couple of days.  After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the
rest of the week.

Have sunny skies today with some wind but not as much as Friday.  As
of 18z GDP is approaching high wind speeds and they may briefly
reach 40 mph this afternoon but should not be for a sustained amount
of time.  Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains
for Sunday as it appears a strong shortwave will track under the base
of the cut off low and across the Guadalupe Mountains... upgrading
this to a High Wind Warning.  It appears a Pacific front will move
across the area on Sunday with a west wind and some cooling.  A
stronger polar front moves down into the area Monday passing through
the region during the evening.

Should have near normal temperatures this evening with lows
generally in the 50s.  Marfa got down to 34 degrees this morning and
may drop into the 30s the next couple of mornings.  Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Warmed temps Monday as believe
front will be a little slower getting down here.  Will have a north
wind on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 60s with 70s closer to the
Rio Grande.  Temperatures begin to recover Wednesday through the end
of the week as ridge builds over the area.

Rain chances not looking that good this week.  Storm chances return
to the forecast in the West on Sunday with low pops spreading across
the area Sunday night.  Also have storm chances across the north
Monday and Monday night along and behind the front.  A little precip
may linger over the NE Tuesday but after that the forecast is dry.

FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement through early this evening
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe and Davis mountains,
Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are developing due to breezy
conditions and low rh/s but near normal high temperatures, greenup
of foliage and ERCs below 50 preclude an upgrade to a warning.

It will be windier and continued dry Sunday but similar concerns
will exist that preclude a watch or warning at this time for west
Texas and or southeast New Mexico. High temperatures are still expected
to only be near normal levels, with recent rainfall and ERCs still
expected to be less than 50.  Will probably issue another Fire
Danger Statement.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251919
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday
has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today.  Behind
it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the
Intermountain West gets here.  This trough develops into a cut off
low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next
couple of days.  After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the
rest of the week.

Have sunny skies today with some wind but not as much as Friday.  As
of 18z GDP is approaching high wind speeds and they may briefly
reach 40 mph this afternoon but should not be for a sustained amount
of time.  Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains
for Sunday as it appears a strong shortwave will track under the base
of the cut off low and across the Guadalupe Mountains... upgrading
this to a High Wind Warning.  It appears a Pacific front will move
across the area on Sunday with a west wind and some cooling.  A
stronger polar front moves down into the area Monday passing through
the region during the evening.

Should have near normal temperatures this evening with lows
generally in the 50s.  Marfa got down to 34 degrees this morning and
may drop into the 30s the next couple of mornings.  Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Warmed temps Monday as believe
front will be a little slower getting down here.  Will have a north
wind on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 60s with 70s closer to the
Rio Grande.  Temperatures begin to recover Wednesday through the end
of the week as ridge builds over the area.

Rain chances not looking that good this week.  Storm chances return
to the forecast in the West on Sunday with low pops spreading across
the area Sunday night.  Also have storm chances across the north
Monday and Monday night along and behind the front.  A little precip
may linger over the NE Tuesday but after that the forecast is dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement through early this evening
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe and Davis mountains,
Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are developing due to breezy
conditions and low rh/s but near normal high temperatures, greenup
of foliage and ERCs below 50 preclude an upgrade to a warning.

It will be windier and continued dry Sunday but similar concerns
will exist that preclude a watch or warning at this time for west
Texas and or southeast New Mexico. High temperatures are still expected
to only be near normal levels, with recent rainfall and ERCs still
expected to be less than 50.  Will probably issue another Fire
Danger Statement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  81  50  76  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              54  85  54  79  /   0  10  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                52  76  47  76  /   0  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  58  89  57  87  /   0  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  85  54  80  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          49  67  42  70  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   50  76  47  74  /   0  10  10  30
MARFA TX                   37  76  37  71  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  83  52  78  /   0  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  54  82  51  78  /   0  10  20  10
WINK TX                    51  82  50  80  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251919
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
219 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday
has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today.  Behind
it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the
Intermountain West gets here.  This trough develops into a cut off
low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next
couple of days.  After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the
rest of the week.

Have sunny skies today with some wind but not as much as Friday.  As
of 18z GDP is approaching high wind speeds and they may briefly
reach 40 mph this afternoon but should not be for a sustained amount
of time.  Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains
for Sunday as it appears a strong shortwave will track under the base
of the cut off low and across the Guadalupe Mountains... upgrading
this to a High Wind Warning.  It appears a Pacific front will move
across the area on Sunday with a west wind and some cooling.  A
stronger polar front moves down into the area Monday passing through
the region during the evening.

Should have near normal temperatures this evening with lows
generally in the 50s.  Marfa got down to 34 degrees this morning and
may drop into the 30s the next couple of mornings.  Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Warmed temps Monday as believe
front will be a little slower getting down here.  Will have a north
wind on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 60s with 70s closer to the
Rio Grande.  Temperatures begin to recover Wednesday through the end
of the week as ridge builds over the area.

Rain chances not looking that good this week.  Storm chances return
to the forecast in the West on Sunday with low pops spreading across
the area Sunday night.  Also have storm chances across the north
Monday and Monday night along and behind the front.  A little precip
may linger over the NE Tuesday but after that the forecast is dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement through early this evening
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe and Davis mountains,
Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are developing due to breezy
conditions and low rh/s but near normal high temperatures, greenup
of foliage and ERCs below 50 preclude an upgrade to a warning.

It will be windier and continued dry Sunday but similar concerns
will exist that preclude a watch or warning at this time for west
Texas and or southeast New Mexico. High temperatures are still expected
to only be near normal levels, with recent rainfall and ERCs still
expected to be less than 50.  Will probably issue another Fire
Danger Statement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 52  81  50  76  /   0  10  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              54  85  54  79  /   0  10  20  20
CARLSBAD NM                52  76  47  76  /   0  10  10  20
DRYDEN TX                  58  89  57  87  /   0  10  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           54  85  54  80  /   0  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          49  67  42  70  /   0  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   50  76  47  74  /   0  10  10  30
MARFA TX                   37  76  37  71  /   0  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    53  83  52  78  /   0  10  20  10
ODESSA TX                  54  82  51  78  /   0  10  20  10
WINK TX                    51  82  50  80  /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251857
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
157 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday
has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today.  Behind
it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the
Intermountain West gets here.  This trough develops into a cut off
low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next
couple of days.  After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the
rest of the week.

Have sunny skies today with some wind but not as much as Friday.  As
of 18z GDP is approaching high wind speeds and they may briefly
reach 40 mph this afternoon but should not be for a sustained amount
of time.  Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains
for Sunday as it appears a strong shortwave will track under the base
of the cut off low and across the Guadalupe Mountains... upgrading
this to a High Wind Warning.  It appears a Pacific front will move
across the area on Sunday with a west wind and some cooling.  A
stronger polar front moves down into the area Monday passing through
the region during the evening.

Should have near normal temperatures this evening with lows
generally in the 50s.  Marfa got down to 34 degrees this morning and
may drop into the 30s the next couple of mornings.  Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Warmed temps Monday as believe
front will be a little slower getting down here.  Will have a north
wind on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 60s with 70s closer to the
Rio Grande.  Temperatures begin to recover Wednesday through the end
of the week as ridge builds over the area.

Rain chances not looking that good this week.  Storm chances return
to the forecast in the West on Sunday with low pops spreading across
the area Sunday night.  Also have storm chances across the north
Monday and Monday night along and behind the front.  A little precip
may linger over the NE Tuesday but after that the forecast is dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement through early this evening
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe and Davis mountains,
Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are developing due to breezy
conditions and low rh/s but near normal high temperatures, greenup
of foliage and ERCs below 50 preclude an upgrade to a warning.

It will be windier and continued dry Sunday but similar concerns
will exist that preclude a watch or warning at this time for west
Texas and or southeast New Mexico. High temperatures are still expected
to only be near normal levels, with recent rainfall and ERCs still
expected to be less than 50.  Will probably issue another Fire
Danger Statement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 82  52  81  50  /   0   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              85  54  85  54  /   0   0  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                82  52  76  47  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  88  58  89  57  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  54  85  54  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  49  67  42  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   78  50  76  47  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  37  76  37  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  53  83  52  /   0   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  82  54  82  51  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                    84  51  82  50  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251857
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
157 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday
has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today.  Behind
it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the
Intermountain West gets here.  This trough develops into a cut off
low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next
couple of days.  After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the
rest of the week.

Have sunny skies today with some wind but not as much as Friday.  As
of 18z GDP is approaching high wind speeds and they may briefly
reach 40 mph this afternoon but should not be for a sustained amount
of time.  Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains
for Sunday as it appears a strong shortwave will track under the base
of the cut off low and across the Guadalupe Mountains... upgrading
this to a High Wind Warning.  It appears a Pacific front will move
across the area on Sunday with a west wind and some cooling.  A
stronger polar front moves down into the area Monday passing through
the region during the evening.

Should have near normal temperatures this evening with lows
generally in the 50s.  Marfa got down to 34 degrees this morning and
may drop into the 30s the next couple of mornings.  Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Warmed temps Monday as believe
front will be a little slower getting down here.  Will have a north
wind on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 60s with 70s closer to the
Rio Grande.  Temperatures begin to recover Wednesday through the end
of the week as ridge builds over the area.

Rain chances not looking that good this week.  Storm chances return
to the forecast in the West on Sunday with low pops spreading across
the area Sunday night.  Also have storm chances across the north
Monday and Monday night along and behind the front.  A little precip
may linger over the NE Tuesday but after that the forecast is dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement through early this evening
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe and Davis mountains,
Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are developing due to breezy
conditions and low rh/s but near normal high temperatures, greenup
of foliage and ERCs below 50 preclude an upgrade to a warning.

It will be windier and continued dry Sunday but similar concerns
will exist that preclude a watch or warning at this time for west
Texas and or southeast New Mexico. High temperatures are still expected
to only be near normal levels, with recent rainfall and ERCs still
expected to be less than 50.  Will probably issue another Fire
Danger Statement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 82  52  81  50  /   0   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              85  54  85  54  /   0   0  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                82  52  76  47  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  88  58  89  57  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  54  85  54  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  49  67  42  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   78  50  76  47  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  37  76  37  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  53  83  52  /   0   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  82  54  82  51  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                    84  51  82  50  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251857
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
157 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday
has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today.  Behind
it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the
Intermountain West gets here.  This trough develops into a cut off
low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next
couple of days.  After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the
rest of the week.

Have sunny skies today with some wind but not as much as Friday.  As
of 18z GDP is approaching high wind speeds and they may briefly
reach 40 mph this afternoon but should not be for a sustained amount
of time.  Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains
for Sunday as it appears a strong shortwave will track under the base
of the cut off low and across the Guadalupe Mountains... upgrading
this to a High Wind Warning.  It appears a Pacific front will move
across the area on Sunday with a west wind and some cooling.  A
stronger polar front moves down into the area Monday passing through
the region during the evening.

Should have near normal temperatures this evening with lows
generally in the 50s.  Marfa got down to 34 degrees this morning and
may drop into the 30s the next couple of mornings.  Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Warmed temps Monday as believe
front will be a little slower getting down here.  Will have a north
wind on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 60s with 70s closer to the
Rio Grande.  Temperatures begin to recover Wednesday through the end
of the week as ridge builds over the area.

Rain chances not looking that good this week.  Storm chances return
to the forecast in the West on Sunday with low pops spreading across
the area Sunday night.  Also have storm chances across the north
Monday and Monday night along and behind the front.  A little precip
may linger over the NE Tuesday but after that the forecast is dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement through early this evening
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe and Davis mountains,
Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are developing due to breezy
conditions and low rh/s but near normal high temperatures, greenup
of foliage and ERCs below 50 preclude an upgrade to a warning.

It will be windier and continued dry Sunday but similar concerns
will exist that preclude a watch or warning at this time for west
Texas and or southeast New Mexico. High temperatures are still expected
to only be near normal levels, with recent rainfall and ERCs still
expected to be less than 50.  Will probably issue another Fire
Danger Statement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 82  52  81  50  /   0   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              85  54  85  54  /   0   0  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                82  52  76  47  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  88  58  89  57  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  54  85  54  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  49  67  42  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   78  50  76  47  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  37  76  37  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  53  83  52  /   0   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  82  54  82  51  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                    84  51  82  50  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251857
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
157 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
The upper low that brought the storms and wind to the area yesterday
has quickly moved off to the Mississippi River Valley today.  Behind
it have brief ridging aloft before the next upper trough over the
Intermountain West gets here.  This trough develops into a cut off
low over NM Sunday and slowly wobbles across the region for the next
couple of days.  After that upper ridge returns with dry wx for the
rest of the week.

Have sunny skies today with some wind but not as much as Friday.  As
of 18z GDP is approaching high wind speeds and they may briefly
reach 40 mph this afternoon but should not be for a sustained amount
of time.  Inherited a High Wind Watch for the Guadalupe Mountains
for Sunday as it appears a strong shortwave will track under the base
of the cut off low and across the Guadalupe Mountains... upgrading
this to a High Wind Warning.  It appears a Pacific front will move
across the area on Sunday with a west wind and some cooling.  A
stronger polar front moves down into the area Monday passing through
the region during the evening.

Should have near normal temperatures this evening with lows
generally in the 50s.  Marfa got down to 34 degrees this morning and
may drop into the 30s the next couple of mornings.  Highs Sunday and
Monday will be in the 70s and 80s.  Warmed temps Monday as believe
front will be a little slower getting down here.  Will have a north
wind on Tuesday with highs mostly in the 60s with 70s closer to the
Rio Grande.  Temperatures begin to recover Wednesday through the end
of the week as ridge builds over the area.

Rain chances not looking that good this week.  Storm chances return
to the forecast in the West on Sunday with low pops spreading across
the area Sunday night.  Also have storm chances across the north
Monday and Monday night along and behind the front.  A little precip
may linger over the NE Tuesday but after that the forecast is dry.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will continue the Fire Danger Statement through early this evening
for the southeast New Mexico plains, Guadalupe and Davis mountains,
Upper Trans Pecos, and western Permian Basin. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are developing due to breezy
conditions and low rh/s but near normal high temperatures, greenup
of foliage and ERCs below 50 preclude an upgrade to a warning.

It will be windier and continued dry Sunday but similar concerns
will exist that preclude a watch or warning at this time for west
Texas and or southeast New Mexico. High temperatures are still expected
to only be near normal levels, with recent rainfall and ERCs still
expected to be less than 50.  Will probably issue another Fire
Danger Statement.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 82  52  81  50  /   0   0  10  20
BIG SPRING TX              85  54  85  54  /   0   0  10  20
CARLSBAD NM                82  52  76  47  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  88  58  89  57  /   0   0  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  54  85  54  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          73  49  67  42  /   0   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   78  50  76  47  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   75  37  76  37  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    83  53  83  52  /   0   0  10  20
ODESSA TX                  82  54  82  51  /   0   0  10  20
WINK TX                    84  51  82  50  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from Noon to 8 PM MDT Sunday FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251725
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1225 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under mostly clear skies.
West winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts over 30 mph are expected this
afternoon through around sunset. Winds should generally diminish
to less than 10 mph and become southwest by early this evening and
continue overnight through mid Sunday morning.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.
Westerly winds will pickup this morning, and increase again further
this afternoon to the 15 to 25kt range, with gusts perhaps as high
as 35kt.  Winds will subside around 26/01Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2015/

A very active pattern will bring more windy conditions over the
next several days then much cooler weather next week. The upper
level storm system that brought showers and thunderstorms to
eastern portions of the region yesterday has moved into the Great
Lakes. Meanwhile...another upper trough has begun to dig over the
Great Basin this morning. This system is expected to cut off from
the main flow over the weekend and slowly drift across the
Southern Plains early next week.

Expect more windy and dry conditions the next couple afternoons as
a sfc low develops and intensifies over the TX Panhandle. Winds
will likely reach high wind criteria tomorrow afternoon in the
Guadalupe Mountains so will issue a High Wind Watch there. Wind
advisories may also be needed later for the adjacent plains. Fire
danger will remain elevated with the dry air and strong winds, but
high temperatures should only rise to near normal this weekend.
Temperatures may even cool a few degrees Sunday across SE NM
behind a Pacific front. See the fire wx discussion below for more
information concerning the next 2 days.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible beginning late Sunday as
the upper trough approaches. This storm system is expected to pass
just to our north so the best rain chances will remain north and
east of the region through Monday. Wrap around moisture may bring
a better chance of showers to the area Monday night and Tuesday. A
cold front will arrive late Monday ushering in much colder air for
this time of year. Strong CAA followed by a sfc ridge is expected
to bring near record cold temperatures to the area Wednesday
morning.

Upper level ridging builds in mid to late week with warming
temperatures and mostly dry conditions.

FIRE WEATHER...

Dry air will remain over the forecast area today and Sunday.  Since
an upper level storm system will move over New Mexico Sunday and
stay there through Monday, gusty westerly winds will continue to
affect the region through Monday.  RH/s are expected to drop to
around 10 percent over portions of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend
region where the warmest temperatures will occur.  Since 20 foot
wind speeds will not rise above 20 mph sustained very long in these
areas, only near critical fire weather conditions area expected
there.  The strongest 20 foot winds are expected over the Guadalupe
and Davis Mountains, Van Horn area, SE NM Plains and Upper Trans
Pecos.  Although RH/s will drop to near 10 to 15 percent in these
areas, a Fire Danger Statement will be issued for this afternoon
into early evening due to near normal high temperatures, greenup of
foliage and ERCs below 50.  Locations along and west of a Lamesa to
Wink to Alpine line will be included in the affected area.  Recovery
tonight will be fair to good.

It will be windier Sunday as a belt of stronger mid level winds
spreads across the region at the base of the upper low over NM.
The warmest temps and lowest minimum afternoon RH/s will be over the
Presidio Valley and Big Bend region again.  20 foot wind speeds will
be 20 mph or greater for 5 to 7 hours over most of the forecast area
to the north of the Presidio Valley and Big Bend region from late
Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon.  However, RH/s will start
rising over the Guadalupe Mountains, SE NM Plains and the Upper
Trans Pecos Sunday afternoon due to a Pacific cold front moving into
the area.  In addition, high temperatures will still be near normal
levels, much of the rest of the area had rain Friday and ERCs will
still be less than 50.  Think another Fire Danger Statement will be
utilized due to the low end threat of fires starting/spreading.
Windy conditions will persist Monday, but will winds will not be as
strong as Sunday or even Saturday.  A stronger cold front will move
into the area and push south through the Rio Grande by early
Tuesday.  Fire weather conditions will be much less elevated through
midweek.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12

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