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000
FXUS64 KMAF 302318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with light southeast winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Lower surface dewpoints have materialized in areas n of I-20 favoring
warmer temps today than yesterday. Isold tstms will still be possible
this PM though across the Trans Pecos and far srn PB where low level
mstr is better. 85h temps will start to increase Sunday underneath
building 5h heights. This trend will generally continue into Tuesday.
85h and 7h temps peak on Monday, U20s-L30C and 13-15C, respectively.
Even though the PB has lost about 17 minutes of sunlight over the
last 2 weeks we won`t be able to tell it on Monday when high temps
in U90s-L100s will be fairly widespread. MAV/ECS MOS data are more
in line with the 85h temps and will side toward this warmer
guidance thru Monday. Isold tstms will continue to occur INVOF
Davis Mtns Sunday-Tuesday per steepening of the 7h-5h LR/s and
strong surface based heating. Thereafter the models are in
agreement that the mid level ridge will be n-ne of the CWFA. This
will favor a deeper ely component and the low level thermal ridge
will break down and move w signaling cooler temps from mid week
into next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 302318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions with light southeast winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Lower surface dewpoints have materialized in areas n of I-20 favoring
warmer temps today than yesterday. Isold tstms will still be possible
this PM though across the Trans Pecos and far srn PB where low level
mstr is better. 85h temps will start to increase Sunday underneath
building 5h heights. This trend will generally continue into Tuesday.
85h and 7h temps peak on Monday, U20s-L30C and 13-15C, respectively.
Even though the PB has lost about 17 minutes of sunlight over the
last 2 weeks we won`t be able to tell it on Monday when high temps
in U90s-L100s will be fairly widespread. MAV/ECS MOS data are more
in line with the 85h temps and will side toward this warmer
guidance thru Monday. Isold tstms will continue to occur INVOF
Davis Mtns Sunday-Tuesday per steepening of the 7h-5h LR/s and
strong surface based heating. Thereafter the models are in
agreement that the mid level ridge will be n-ne of the CWFA. This
will favor a deeper ely component and the low level thermal ridge
will break down and move w signaling cooler temps from mid week
into next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301901
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Lower surface dewpoints have materialized in areas n of I-20 favoring
warmer temps today than yesterday. Isold tstms will still be possible
this PM though across the Trans Pecos and far srn PB where low level
mstr is better. 85h temps will start to increase Sunday underneath
building 5h heights. This trend will generally continue into Tuesday.
85h and 7h temps peak on Monday, U20s-L30C and 13-15C, respectively.
Even though the PB has lost about 17 minutes of sunlight over the
last 2 weeks we won`t be able to tell it on Monday when high temps
in U90s-L100s will be fairly widespread. MAV/ECS MOS data are more
in line with the 85h temps and will side toward this warmer
guidance thru Monday. Isold tstms will continue to occur INVOF
Davis Mtns Sunday-Tuesday per steepening of the 7h-5h LR/s and
strong surface based heating. Thereafter the models are in
agreement that the mid level ridge will be n-ne of the CWFA. This
will favor a deeper ely component and the low level thermal ridge
will break down and move w signaling cooler temps from mid week
into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71 100  70 101  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  99  76 101  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70 103  69 104  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  99  77 100  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72 100  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  94  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   66  99  67 100  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   57  92  59  93  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74 100  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  73 100  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73 103  73 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301901
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
201 PM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Lower surface dewpoints have materialized in areas n of I-20 favoring
warmer temps today than yesterday. Isold tstms will still be possible
this PM though across the Trans Pecos and far srn PB where low level
mstr is better. 85h temps will start to increase Sunday underneath
building 5h heights. This trend will generally continue into Tuesday.
85h and 7h temps peak on Monday, U20s-L30C and 13-15C, respectively.
Even though the PB has lost about 17 minutes of sunlight over the
last 2 weeks we won`t be able to tell it on Monday when high temps
in U90s-L100s will be fairly widespread. MAV/ECS MOS data are more
in line with the 85h temps and will side toward this warmer
guidance thru Monday. Isold tstms will continue to occur INVOF
Davis Mtns Sunday-Tuesday per steepening of the 7h-5h LR/s and
strong surface based heating. Thereafter the models are in
agreement that the mid level ridge will be n-ne of the CWFA. This
will favor a deeper ely component and the low level thermal ridge
will break down and move w signaling cooler temps from mid week
into next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 71 100  70 101  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  99  76 101  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                70 103  69 104  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77  99  77 100  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72 100  72 101  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          67  94  70  95  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   66  99  67 100  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   57  92  59  93  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  99  74 100  /  10  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  75  99  73 100  /  10  10  10   0
WINK TX                    73 103  73 104  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301628
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1128 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist next 24 hours, on the NE periphery of
the upper ridge. Forecast soundings suggest a fairly extensive cu
field developing this afternoon and Sunday, w/bases 5-8 kft agl.
Otherwise, light return flow continues, w/slim chances of convection.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301628
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1128 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will persist next 24 hours, on the NE periphery of
the upper ridge. Forecast soundings suggest a fairly extensive cu
field developing this afternoon and Sunday, w/bases 5-8 kft agl.
Otherwise, light return flow continues, w/slim chances of convection.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301132
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with afternoon cu expected. Light wind this morning will
become SE around 10kts by afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 301132
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
632 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with afternoon cu expected. Light wind this morning will
become SE around 10kts by afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 300936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  70  98  71  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              95  72  98  72  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                97  70 101  69  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  96  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           96  71  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  65  93  66  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  68  98  68  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   88  61  91  62  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  71  98  72  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  96  72  98  72  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    99  72 102  73  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 300936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
436 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The weather pattern unfortunately will be dominated by upper
level ridging the next several days. Separate high centers over
both coasts will be bridged with ridging across the southwest and
Gulf Coast and the associated subsidence will bring hot and dry
conditions. We will see temperatures slowly climb through
Monday before an 850mb high over the Gulf Coast builds back into
west Texas advecting cooler gulf air and bringing highs back down
to near normal. In persistent weather patterns, it is difficult to
beat guidance so this forecast has stayed close to MEX guidance
the 7 day forecast period. Dewpoints will be high enough that we
could see some isolated afternoon convection develop each day,
especially in the higher elevations.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  70  98  71  /   0   0  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              95  72  98  72  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                97  70 101  69  /   0   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  96  73  98  73  /  10  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           96  71  99  72  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          89  65  93  66  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  68  98  68  /   0   0  10  10
MARFA TX                   88  61  91  62  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  71  98  72  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  96  72  98  72  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    99  72 102  73  /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 300541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR... few clouds overnight with afternoon cu expected. Wind will
remain out of the SE generally 10kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

UPDATE...

See updated forecast discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned along a sub-synoptic boundary stretching from
the Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau. As such have removed
the bulk of PoPs from the overnight forecast. We`ll continue to
see a few cells over the lower Trans Pecos for the next hour or so,
however.

Wouldn`t surprise me if patchy fog were to develop after midnight
over portions of the eastern Permian Basin. However, confidence in
significant coverage is low enough to preclude mention in the
forecast. Will have to monitor, though.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 300541
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1241 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR... few clouds overnight with afternoon cu expected. Wind will
remain out of the SE generally 10kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

UPDATE...

See updated forecast discussion below.

DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned along a sub-synoptic boundary stretching from
the Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau. As such have removed
the bulk of PoPs from the overnight forecast. We`ll continue to
see a few cells over the lower Trans Pecos for the next hour or so,
however.

Wouldn`t surprise me if patchy fog were to develop after midnight
over portions of the eastern Permian Basin. However, confidence in
significant coverage is low enough to preclude mention in the
forecast. Will have to monitor, though.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 300151
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
851 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...

See updated forecast discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned along a sub-synoptic boundary stretching from
the Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau. As such have removed
the bulk of PoPs from the overnight forecast. We`ll continue to
see a few cells over the lower Trans Pecos for the next hour or so,
however.

Wouldn`t surprise me if patchy fog were to develop after midnight
over portions of the eastern Permian Basin. However, confidence in
significant coverage is low enough to preclude mention in the
forecast. Will have to monitor, though.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  95  71  97  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  98  75  98  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  71 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  77 101  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  95  72  96  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  92  67  93  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   65  94  67  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  87  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  96  74  96  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  72  96  74  95  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    72  99  74 101  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 300151
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
851 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.UPDATE...

See updated forecast discussion below.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection has waned along a sub-synoptic boundary stretching from
the Big Bend eastward to the Edwards Plateau. As such have removed
the bulk of PoPs from the overnight forecast. We`ll continue to
see a few cells over the lower Trans Pecos for the next hour or so,
however.

Wouldn`t surprise me if patchy fog were to develop after midnight
over portions of the eastern Permian Basin. However, confidence in
significant coverage is low enough to preclude mention in the
forecast. Will have to monitor, though.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  95  71  97  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  98  75  98  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  71 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  77 101  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  95  72  96  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  92  67  93  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   65  94  67  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  87  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  96  74  96  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  72  96  74  95  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    72  99  74 101  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 292318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday. Isolated storms across
the PB and lower Trans Pecos will dissipate after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A weak boundary is near a line from CNM to MAF to south of BPG and
with clouds across the nrn CWFA the 18Z temps were about 7-10
degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Visible imagery does show
clouds dissipating so temps will catch up some, still have lowered
highs temps a few degrees across the n. Also have decided to tighten
up PoP gradient on wrn edge. Combination of boundary, better low
level mstr, and SB instability does favor best PoPs across the far
e-se CWFA and have left low end scattered 30% PoPs there for this
PM. Drier air will be deeper Sat as low dwpnt air across NM moves
se into parts of the CWFA. SB LI`s increase to -1 to zero at 21Z
Sat and with 85h temps around 26-28C it will mostly be on the hot
side with high temps running about 3-5 degrees above normal. The
exception will be in the Davis Mtns where dwpnts in the M50s and
7h-5h LR/s near 6.5 c/km warrant at least isold PoPs. Low level
mstr will edge back up with dwpnts in the mid/upper 50s
Sunday/Monday as se surface winds persist. CINH looks to increase
though with 7h temps increasing to around 12C Sunday and 13-14C
Monday. Isold PoPs still look to be warranted in the Davis Mtns
though. 85h temps will increase to around 27C in the PB to 31C in
SE NM, thus it will be warmer still. There will be little change
Tue, but LI`s will slowly becoming more negative and ECMWF does
initiate small area of storms across NW PB/SE NM Tue PM within a
very minor 5h mid level theta-e ridge axis. Mid level ridging is
well in place Wed with an e-se mid level flow. This will cool 7h
temps a few degrees and isold -SHRA will be possible. In lieu of
"shotgun" low PoPs will keep fcst dry Wed. Thur/Fri the chance of
precip may be just a little better across the w as mid level mstr
will have had a better chance to move into higher terrain of the
Trans Pecos. High temps will cool a few degrees with the deeper se
flow.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 292318
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
618 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions to prevail through Saturday. Isolated storms across
the PB and lower Trans Pecos will dissipate after sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 224 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A weak boundary is near a line from CNM to MAF to south of BPG and
with clouds across the nrn CWFA the 18Z temps were about 7-10
degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Visible imagery does show
clouds dissipating so temps will catch up some, still have lowered
highs temps a few degrees across the n. Also have decided to tighten
up PoP gradient on wrn edge. Combination of boundary, better low
level mstr, and SB instability does favor best PoPs across the far
e-se CWFA and have left low end scattered 30% PoPs there for this
PM. Drier air will be deeper Sat as low dwpnt air across NM moves
se into parts of the CWFA. SB LI`s increase to -1 to zero at 21Z
Sat and with 85h temps around 26-28C it will mostly be on the hot
side with high temps running about 3-5 degrees above normal. The
exception will be in the Davis Mtns where dwpnts in the M50s and
7h-5h LR/s near 6.5 c/km warrant at least isold PoPs. Low level
mstr will edge back up with dwpnts in the mid/upper 50s
Sunday/Monday as se surface winds persist. CINH looks to increase
though with 7h temps increasing to around 12C Sunday and 13-14C
Monday. Isold PoPs still look to be warranted in the Davis Mtns
though. 85h temps will increase to around 27C in the PB to 31C in
SE NM, thus it will be warmer still. There will be little change
Tue, but LI`s will slowly becoming more negative and ECMWF does
initiate small area of storms across NW PB/SE NM Tue PM within a
very minor 5h mid level theta-e ridge axis. Mid level ridging is
well in place Wed with an e-se mid level flow. This will cool 7h
temps a few degrees and isold -SHRA will be possible. In lieu of
"shotgun" low PoPs will keep fcst dry Wed. Thur/Fri the chance of
precip may be just a little better across the w as mid level mstr
will have had a better chance to move into higher terrain of the
Trans Pecos. High temps will cool a few degrees with the deeper se
flow.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291924
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
224 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A weak boundary is near a line from CNM to MAF to south of BPG and
with clouds across the nrn CWFA the 18Z temps were about 7-10
degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Visible imagery does show
clouds dissipating so temps will catch up some, still have lowered
highs temps a few degrees across the n. Also have decided to tighten
up PoP gradient on wrn edge. Combination of boundary, better low
level mstr, and SB instability does favor best PoPs across the far
e-se CWFA and have left low end scattered 30% PoPs there for this
PM. Drier air will be deeper Sat as low dwpnt air across NM moves
se into parts of the CWFA. SB LI`s increase to -1 to zero at 21Z
Sat and with 85h temps around 26-28C it will mostly be on the hot
side with high temps running about 3-5 degrees above normal. The
exception will be in the Davis Mtns where dwpnts in the M50s and
7h-5h LR/s near 6.5 c/km warrant at least isold PoPs. Low level
mstr will edge back up with dwpnts in the mid/upper 50s
Sunday/Monday as se surface winds persist. CINH looks to increase
though with 7h temps increasing to around 12C Sunday and 13-14C
Monday. Isold PoPs still look to be warranted in the Davis Mtns
though. 85h temps will increase to around 27C in the PB to 31C in
SE NM, thus it will be warmer still. There will be little change
Tue, but LI`s will slowly becoming more negative and ECMWF does
initiate small area of storms across NW PB/SE NM Tue PM within a
very minor 5h mid level theta-e ridge axis. Mid level ridging is
well in place Wed with an e-se mid level flow. This will cool 7h
temps a few degrees and isold -SHRA will be possible. In lieu of
"shotgun" low PoPs will keep fcst dry Wed. Thur/Fri the chance of
precip may be just a little better across the w as mid level mstr
will have had a better chance to move into higher terrain of the
Trans Pecos. High temps will cool a few degrees with the deeper se
flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  95  71  97  /  20  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  98  75  98  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  71 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  77 101  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  95  72  96  /  20  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  92  67  93  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   65  94  67  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  87  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  96  74  96  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  72  96  74  95  /  20  10  10  10
WINK TX                    72  99  74 101  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291859
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
159 PM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A weak boundary is near a line from CNM to MAF to south of BPG and
with clouds across the nrn CWFA the 18Z temps were about 7-10
degrees cooler than this time yesterday. Visible imagery does show
clouds dissipating so temps will catch up some, still have lowered
highs temps a few degrees across the n. Also have decided to tighten
up PoP gradient on wrn edge. Combination of boundary, better low
level mstr, and SB instability does favor best PoPs across the far
e-se CWFA and have left scattered 30-40% PoPs there for this PM.
Drier air will be deeper Sat as low dwpnt air across NM moves se
into parts of the CWFA. SB LI`s increase to -1 to zero at 21Z Sat
and with 85h temps around 26-28C it will mostly be on the hot side
with high temps running about 3-5 degrees above normal. The
exception will be in the Davis Mtns where dwpnts in the M50s and
7h-5h LR/s near 6.5 c/km warrant at least isold PoPs. Low level mstr
will edge back up with dwpnts in the mid/upper 50s Sunday/Monday as se
surface winds persist. CINH looks to increase though with 7h temps
increasing to around 12C Sunday and 13-14C Monday. Isold PoPs still
look to be warranted in the Davis Mtns though. 85h temps will
increase to around 27C in the PB to 31C in SE NM, thus it will be
warmer still. There will be little change Tue, but LI`s will slowly
becoming more negative and ECMWF does initiate small area of storms
across NW PB/SE NM Tue PM within a very minor 5h mid level theta-e
ridge axis. Mid level ridging is well in place Wed with an e-se mid
level flow. This will cool 7h temps a few degrees and isold -SHRA
will be possible. In lieu of "shotgun" low PoPs will keep fcst dry
Wed. Thur/Fri the chance of precip may be just a little better
across the w as mid level mstr will have had a better chance to move
into higher terrain of the Trans

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 70  95  71  97  /  10  10  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              73  98  75  98  /  40  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                69  96  71 101  /  10  10  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  77 101  77 101  /  20  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           71  95  72  96  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  92  67  93  /  10  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   65  94  67  97  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  87  59  87  /  10  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    72  96  74  96  /  20  10  10  10
ODESSA TX                  72  96  74  95  /  10  10  10  10
WINK TX                    72  99  74 101  /  10  10   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291636
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1136 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Widespread cu fields
are expected this afternoon and near the end of the forecast
period, w/bases 4.5-7 kft agl. Little convection is expected in
the wake of the exiting upper trough.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Overall VFR expected today but could see some brief stratus/fog
near HOB before 14z. May have a few afternoon storms mainly near
MAF and FST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A deep upper level low has moved into the Central Plains early
this morning. WV imagery shows very dry air moving into the
backside of the trough over New Mexico and far west Texas keeping
convection today primarily over the eastern half of the CWA. With
the best upper dynamics already pushing east the main trigger for
storms will be any remaining surface boundaries and afternoon
heating.

The trough will weaken as it moves east allowing highs over the
east and west coasts to bridge together across Texas. This will
shut down rain chances after tomorrow though 500mb heights will
not be very high, so would not be surprised to see isolated
afternoon storms develop in the higher elevations. Temperatures
will increase a few degrees but should remain below triple digits
for most locations. Early next week a weak trough moves across the
northern tier of states weakening the ridge slightly and allowing
highs to ease back to near normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291636
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1136 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Widespread cu fields
are expected this afternoon and near the end of the forecast
period, w/bases 4.5-7 kft agl. Little convection is expected in
the wake of the exiting upper trough.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Overall VFR expected today but could see some brief stratus/fog
near HOB before 14z. May have a few afternoon storms mainly near
MAF and FST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A deep upper level low has moved into the Central Plains early
this morning. WV imagery shows very dry air moving into the
backside of the trough over New Mexico and far west Texas keeping
convection today primarily over the eastern half of the CWA. With
the best upper dynamics already pushing east the main trigger for
storms will be any remaining surface boundaries and afternoon
heating.

The trough will weaken as it moves east allowing highs over the
east and west coasts to bridge together across Texas. This will
shut down rain chances after tomorrow though 500mb heights will
not be very high, so would not be surprised to see isolated
afternoon storms develop in the higher elevations. Temperatures
will increase a few degrees but should remain below triple digits
for most locations. Early next week a weak trough moves across the
northern tier of states weakening the ridge slightly and allowing
highs to ease back to near normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291121
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall VFR expected today but could see some brief stratus/fog
near HOB before 14z. May have a few afternoon storms mainly near
MAF and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A deep upper level low has moved into the Central Plains early
this morning. WV imagery shows very dry air moving into the
backside of the trough over New Mexico and far west Texas keeping
convection today primarily over the eastern half of the CWA. With
the best upper dynamics already pushing east the main trigger for
storms will be any remaining surface boundaries and afternoon
heating.

The trough will weaken as it moves east allowing highs over the
east and west coasts to bridge together across Texas. This will
shut down rain chances after tomorrow though 500mb heights will
not be very high, so would not be surprised to see isolated
afternoon storms develop in the higher elevations. Temperatures
will increase a few degrees but should remain below triple digits
for most locations. Early next week a weak trough moves across the
northern tier of states weakening the ridge slightly and allowing
highs to ease back to near normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 291121
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
621 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Overall VFR expected today but could see some brief stratus/fog
near HOB before 14z. May have a few afternoon storms mainly near
MAF and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A deep upper level low has moved into the Central Plains early
this morning. WV imagery shows very dry air moving into the
backside of the trough over New Mexico and far west Texas keeping
convection today primarily over the eastern half of the CWA. With
the best upper dynamics already pushing east the main trigger for
storms will be any remaining surface boundaries and afternoon
heating.

The trough will weaken as it moves east allowing highs over the
east and west coasts to bridge together across Texas. This will
shut down rain chances after tomorrow though 500mb heights will
not be very high, so would not be surprised to see isolated
afternoon storms develop in the higher elevations. Temperatures
will increase a few degrees but should remain below triple digits
for most locations. Early next week a weak trough moves across the
northern tier of states weakening the ridge slightly and allowing
highs to ease back to near normal.

Hennig

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 290953
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
453 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A deep upper level low has moved into the Central Plains early
this morning. WV imagery shows very dry air moving into the
backside of the trough over New Mexico and far west Texas keeping
convection today primarily over the eastern half of the CWA. With
the best upper dynamics already pushing east the main trigger for
storms will be any remaining surface boundaries and afternoon
heating.

The trough will weaken as it moves east allowing highs over the
east and west coasts to bridge together across Texas. This will
shut down rain chances after tomorrow though 500mb heights will
not be very high, so would not be surprised to see isolated
afternoon storms develop in the higher elevations. Temperatures
will increase a few degrees but should remain below triple digits
for most locations. Early next week a weak trough moves across the
northern tier of states weakening the ridge slightly and allowing
highs to ease back to near normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  70  95  71  /  20  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              94  71  96  72  /  40  40  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                96  70  97  70  /  10   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  98  74  96  73  /  30  30  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  71  96  71  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  66  89  64  /  10   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  69  95  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   89  62  89  61  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  71  96  72  /  30  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  95  72  96  72  /  30  30  10  10
WINK TX                   100  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 290953
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
453 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A deep upper level low has moved into the Central Plains early
this morning. WV imagery shows very dry air moving into the
backside of the trough over New Mexico and far west Texas keeping
convection today primarily over the eastern half of the CWA. With
the best upper dynamics already pushing east the main trigger for
storms will be any remaining surface boundaries and afternoon
heating.

The trough will weaken as it moves east allowing highs over the
east and west coasts to bridge together across Texas. This will
shut down rain chances after tomorrow though 500mb heights will
not be very high, so would not be surprised to see isolated
afternoon storms develop in the higher elevations. Temperatures
will increase a few degrees but should remain below triple digits
for most locations. Early next week a weak trough moves across the
northern tier of states weakening the ridge slightly and allowing
highs to ease back to near normal.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 95  70  95  71  /  20  20  10  10
BIG SPRING TX              94  71  96  72  /  40  40  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                96  70  97  70  /  10   0  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  98  74  96  73  /  30  30  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           97  71  96  71  /  30  30  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  66  89  64  /  10   0  10  10
HOBBS NM                   94  69  95  68  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   89  62  89  61  /  20  10  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    95  71  96  72  /  30  30  10  10
ODESSA TX                  95  72  96  72  /  30  30  10  10
WINK TX                   100  73  99  73  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 290539
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Storms over the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos will continue to
decline over the next few hours as they move east. Only included
mention of TSRA at FST. Otherwise VFR with generally light wind
overnight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Main focus for this forecast will be the chances for rain later this
evening through Friday night as an upper trough will be making its
way into the central plains this afternoon.  Around the base of the
upper trough will be some shortwave troughs which will provide enough lift
to generate thunderstorms.  Thinking is that the majority of the
precipitation late this afternoon will reside along and east of a
weak surface trough that extends through the Permian Basin southwest
into the Davis Mountains.  There will be an increase in instability
with the amount of moisture in place.  This mornings sounding at MAF
showed 1.50 inches of Precipitable Water which is above normal for
this time of year. With the lack of shear across the area, there
will less of a chance for more organized storms. The main concern
will be the potential for heavy rain that will lead to a threat of
localized flash flooding and downburst winds. As a low level jet
develops, it will provide enough support for thunderstorms to
continue into the overnight hours with most models show precip
over the Permian Basin at 06Z. As the upper trough progresses east
out of the plains, support for thunderstorm activity will diminish
from east to west with lingering showers and thunderstorms Friday
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

Heading into the weekend and early next week the upper ridge begins
to take hold again.  Beginning this weekend, we will see
temperatures in the mid 90s and a gradual increase to the upper 90s
by Monday.  After the rain chances exit with the passing of the
upper trough, there will be less chances of rain for any part of
next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 290539
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1239 AM CDT Fri Aug 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Storms over the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos will continue to
decline over the next few hours as they move east. Only included
mention of TSRA at FST. Otherwise VFR with generally light wind
overnight.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Main focus for this forecast will be the chances for rain later this
evening through Friday night as an upper trough will be making its
way into the central plains this afternoon.  Around the base of the
upper trough will be some shortwave troughs which will provide enough lift
to generate thunderstorms.  Thinking is that the majority of the
precipitation late this afternoon will reside along and east of a
weak surface trough that extends through the Permian Basin southwest
into the Davis Mountains.  There will be an increase in instability
with the amount of moisture in place.  This mornings sounding at MAF
showed 1.50 inches of Precipitable Water which is above normal for
this time of year. With the lack of shear across the area, there
will less of a chance for more organized storms. The main concern
will be the potential for heavy rain that will lead to a threat of
localized flash flooding and downburst winds. As a low level jet
develops, it will provide enough support for thunderstorms to
continue into the overnight hours with most models show precip
over the Permian Basin at 06Z. As the upper trough progresses east
out of the plains, support for thunderstorm activity will diminish
from east to west with lingering showers and thunderstorms Friday
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

Heading into the weekend and early next week the upper ridge begins
to take hold again.  Beginning this weekend, we will see
temperatures in the mid 90s and a gradual increase to the upper 90s
by Monday.  After the rain chances exit with the passing of the
upper trough, there will be less chances of rain for any part of
next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 282317
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Scattered storms will continue across the Permian Basin and Trans
Pecos through the evening. Have included tempos for this at KMAF
and KFST. Main threat will be gusty winds and lowered visibility
in and near storms. Will also need to monitor for more storm
development overnight across the area as the upper trough axis
moves across the Panhandle. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with
more isolated storms possible Friday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Main focus for this forecast will be the chances for rain later this
evening through Friday night as an upper trough will be making its
way into the central plains this afternoon.  Around the base of the
upper trough will be some shortwave troughs which will provide enough lift
to generate thunderstorms.  Thinking is that the majority of the
precipitation late this afternoon will reside along and east of a
weak surface trough that extends through the Permian Basin southwest
into the Davis Mountains.  There will be an increase in instability
with the amount of moisture in place.  This mornings sounding at MAF
showed 1.50 inches of Precipitable Water which is above normal for
this time of year. With the lack of shear across the area, there
will less of a chance for more organized storms. The main concern
will be the potential for heavy rain that will lead to a threat of
localized flash flooding and downburst winds. As a low level jet
develops, it will provide enough support for thunderstorms to
continue into the overnight hours with most models show precip
over the Permian Basin at 06Z. As the upper trough progresses east
out of the plains, support for thunderstorm activity will diminish
from east to west with lingering showers and thunderstorms Friday
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

Heading into the weekend and early next week the upper ridge begins
to take hold again.  Beginning this weekend, we will see
temperatures in the mid 90s and a gradual increase to the upper 90s
by Monday.  After the rain chances exit with the passing of the
upper trough, there will be less chances of rain for any part of
next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 282317
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
617 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF issuance
Scattered storms will continue across the Permian Basin and Trans
Pecos through the evening. Have included tempos for this at KMAF
and KFST. Main threat will be gusty winds and lowered visibility
in and near storms. Will also need to monitor for more storm
development overnight across the area as the upper trough axis
moves across the Panhandle. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with
more isolated storms possible Friday afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Main focus for this forecast will be the chances for rain later this
evening through Friday night as an upper trough will be making its
way into the central plains this afternoon.  Around the base of the
upper trough will be some shortwave troughs which will provide enough lift
to generate thunderstorms.  Thinking is that the majority of the
precipitation late this afternoon will reside along and east of a
weak surface trough that extends through the Permian Basin southwest
into the Davis Mountains.  There will be an increase in instability
with the amount of moisture in place.  This mornings sounding at MAF
showed 1.50 inches of Precipitable Water which is above normal for
this time of year. With the lack of shear across the area, there
will less of a chance for more organized storms. The main concern
will be the potential for heavy rain that will lead to a threat of
localized flash flooding and downburst winds. As a low level jet
develops, it will provide enough support for thunderstorms to
continue into the overnight hours with most models show precip
over the Permian Basin at 06Z. As the upper trough progresses east
out of the plains, support for thunderstorm activity will diminish
from east to west with lingering showers and thunderstorms Friday
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

Heading into the weekend and early next week the upper ridge begins
to take hold again.  Beginning this weekend, we will see
temperatures in the mid 90s and a gradual increase to the upper 90s
by Monday.  After the rain chances exit with the passing of the
upper trough, there will be less chances of rain for any part of
next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

29

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 281911
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
211 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Main focus for this forecast will be the chances for rain later this
evening through Friday night as an upper trough will be making its
way into the central plains this afternoon.  Around the base of the
upper trough will be some shortwave troughs which will provide enough lift
to generate thunderstorms.  Thinking is that the majority of the
precipitation late this afternoon will reside along and east of a
weak surface trough that extends through the Permian Basin southwest
into the Davis Mountains.  There will be an increase in instability
with the amount of moisture in place.  This mornings sounding at MAF
showed 1.50 inches of Precipitable Water which is above normal for
this time of year. With the lack of shear across the area, there
will less of a chance for more organized storms. The main concern
will be the potential for heavy rain that will lead to a threat of
localized flash flooding and downburst winds. As a low level jet
develops, it will provide enough support for thunderstorms to
continue into the overnight hours with most models show precip
over the Permian Basin at 06Z. As the upper trough progresses east
out of the plains, support for thunderstorm activity will diminish
from east to west with lingering showers and thunderstorms Friday
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

Heading into the weekend and early next week the upper ridge begins
to take hold again.  Beginning this weekend, we will see
temperatures in the mid 90s and a gradual increase to the upper 90s
by Monday.  After the rain chances exit with the passing of the
upper trough, there will be less chances of rain for any part of
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  72  95  /  30  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  97  74  97  /  40  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                69  99  70 100  /  20  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  79 101  77 100  /  20  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  97  71  94  /  30  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  91  67  90  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   68  96  69  97  /  30  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  88  60  86  /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  96  74  96  /  30  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  73  95  73  95  /  30  20  20  10
WINK TX                    74 100  73  99  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/06

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 281911
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
211 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Main focus for this forecast will be the chances for rain later this
evening through Friday night as an upper trough will be making its
way into the central plains this afternoon.  Around the base of the
upper trough will be some shortwave troughs which will provide enough lift
to generate thunderstorms.  Thinking is that the majority of the
precipitation late this afternoon will reside along and east of a
weak surface trough that extends through the Permian Basin southwest
into the Davis Mountains.  There will be an increase in instability
with the amount of moisture in place.  This mornings sounding at MAF
showed 1.50 inches of Precipitable Water which is above normal for
this time of year. With the lack of shear across the area, there
will less of a chance for more organized storms. The main concern
will be the potential for heavy rain that will lead to a threat of
localized flash flooding and downburst winds. As a low level jet
develops, it will provide enough support for thunderstorms to
continue into the overnight hours with most models show precip
over the Permian Basin at 06Z. As the upper trough progresses east
out of the plains, support for thunderstorm activity will diminish
from east to west with lingering showers and thunderstorms Friday
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.

Heading into the weekend and early next week the upper ridge begins
to take hold again.  Beginning this weekend, we will see
temperatures in the mid 90s and a gradual increase to the upper 90s
by Monday.  After the rain chances exit with the passing of the
upper trough, there will be less chances of rain for any part of
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 72  96  72  95  /  30  20  20  10
BIG SPRING TX              75  97  74  97  /  40  30  30  20
CARLSBAD NM                69  99  70 100  /  20  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  79 101  77 100  /  20  20  20  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           73  97  71  94  /  30  20  20  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          66  91  67  90  /  20  10  10  10
HOBBS NM                   68  96  69  97  /  30  20  10  10
MARFA TX                   59  88  60  86  /  30  20  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    73  96  74  96  /  30  20  20  10
ODESSA TX                  73  95  73  95  /  30  20  20  10
WINK TX                    74 100  73  99  /  30  20  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/06

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 281706
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1206 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Visible sat shows a theta-e ridge extending from the Big Bend
thru the upper CO River valley, while aloft, WV imagery shows the
upper trough moving into NE CO. Mesoanalysis still has areas east
of the Pecos capped, but expect things to destabilize quickly once
this erodes. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by
or shortly after issuance time, w/bases 6-7 kft agl. Short term
models develop a line of convection early this afternoon in an
area of large-scale ascent ahead of the trough, and a second line
as the trough axis moves thru overnight. Expect VFR conditions
throughout the forecast period, except perhaps in areas of heavy
rainfall.  Otherwise, light return flow will continue next 24
hours, w/another widespread cu field developing near the end of
the forecast period, w/bases 5-8 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
TS will develop this afternoon and evening with daytime heating.
Exactly where they develop will depend on the location of surface
boundaries so will not include TS at any TAF location at this
time. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail the next 24
hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A well defined upper low, currently seen on wv satellite imagery
spinning over SE WY tonight, will continue its eastward progression
toward the Plains today as Pacific moisture continues to stream
across the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base
of the upper low and provide upper level forcing for ascent to
help generate thunderstorms across portions of the region today
and Friday, especially given the amount of available moisture.
Expect the majority of activity to develop after 18Z today
along/just east of a surface trough as the bulk of upper forcing
arrives. Best chances will extend from across the Permian Basin
southwest through the Trans Pecos into the Davis Mountain region.
Activity may continue overnight with continued lift, particularly
across the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos where the LLJ will
likely aide in sustaining convection. Model guidance continues to
suggest above normal PWs (approaching 1.5-1.6 inches) today, so
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
remains through late tonight. Friday, upper forcing and best
moisture shifts east, decreasing rain chances from west to east.
Kept mention of thunderstorms in eastern zones through late Friday
night. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler today and
tomorrow due to expected rainfall and cloud cover.

Not much change to the forecast package beyond Friday with the
upper ridge progged to build back over the region through the
weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm headed into next week with
highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 by Monday. Beyond
Friday, not really seeing a good chance for rain anywhere across our
CWA so the forecast will remain dry during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 281706
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1206 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Visible sat shows a theta-e ridge extending from the Big Bend
thru the upper CO River valley, while aloft, WV imagery shows the
upper trough moving into NE CO. Mesoanalysis still has areas east
of the Pecos capped, but expect things to destabilize quickly once
this erodes. Forecast soundings develop a widespread cu field by
or shortly after issuance time, w/bases 6-7 kft agl. Short term
models develop a line of convection early this afternoon in an
area of large-scale ascent ahead of the trough, and a second line
as the trough axis moves thru overnight. Expect VFR conditions
throughout the forecast period, except perhaps in areas of heavy
rainfall.  Otherwise, light return flow will continue next 24
hours, w/another widespread cu field developing near the end of
the forecast period, w/bases 5-8 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
TS will develop this afternoon and evening with daytime heating.
Exactly where they develop will depend on the location of surface
boundaries so will not include TS at any TAF location at this
time. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail the next 24
hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A well defined upper low, currently seen on wv satellite imagery
spinning over SE WY tonight, will continue its eastward progression
toward the Plains today as Pacific moisture continues to stream
across the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base
of the upper low and provide upper level forcing for ascent to
help generate thunderstorms across portions of the region today
and Friday, especially given the amount of available moisture.
Expect the majority of activity to develop after 18Z today
along/just east of a surface trough as the bulk of upper forcing
arrives. Best chances will extend from across the Permian Basin
southwest through the Trans Pecos into the Davis Mountain region.
Activity may continue overnight with continued lift, particularly
across the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos where the LLJ will
likely aide in sustaining convection. Model guidance continues to
suggest above normal PWs (approaching 1.5-1.6 inches) today, so
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
remains through late tonight. Friday, upper forcing and best
moisture shifts east, decreasing rain chances from west to east.
Kept mention of thunderstorms in eastern zones through late Friday
night. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler today and
tomorrow due to expected rainfall and cloud cover.

Not much change to the forecast package beyond Friday with the
upper ridge progged to build back over the region through the
weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm headed into next week with
highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 by Monday. Beyond
Friday, not really seeing a good chance for rain anywhere across our
CWA so the forecast will remain dry during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 281100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS will develop this afternoon and evening with daytime heating.
Exactly where they develop will depend on the location of surface
boundaries so will not include TS at any TAF location at this
time. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A well defined upper low, currently seen on wv satellite imagery
spinning over SE WY tonight, will continue its eastward progression
toward the Plains today as Pacific moisture continues to stream
across the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base
of the upper low and provide upper level forcing for ascent to
help generate thunderstorms across portions of the region today
and Friday, especially given the amount of available moisture.
Expect the majority of activity to develop after 18Z today
along/just east of a surface trough as the bulk of upper forcing
arrives. Best chances will extend from across the Permian Basin
southwest through the Trans Pecos into the Davis Mountain region.
Activity may continue overnight with continued lift, particularly
across the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos where the LLJ will
likely aide in sustaining convection. Model guidance continues to
suggest above normal PWs (approaching 1.5-1.6 inches) today, so
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
remains through late tonight. Friday, upper forcing and best
moisture shifts east, decreasing rain chances from west to east.
Kept mention of thunderstorms in eastern zones through late Friday
night. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler today and
tomorrow due to expected rainfall and cloud cover.

Not much change to the forecast package beyond Friday with the
upper ridge progged to build back over the region through the
weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm headed into next week with
highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 by Monday. Beyond
Friday, not really seeing a good chance for rain anywhere across our
CWA so the forecast will remain dry during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 281100
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS will develop this afternoon and evening with daytime heating.
Exactly where they develop will depend on the location of surface
boundaries so will not include TS at any TAF location at this
time. VFR conditions and light winds will prevail the next 24
hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A well defined upper low, currently seen on wv satellite imagery
spinning over SE WY tonight, will continue its eastward progression
toward the Plains today as Pacific moisture continues to stream
across the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base
of the upper low and provide upper level forcing for ascent to
help generate thunderstorms across portions of the region today
and Friday, especially given the amount of available moisture.
Expect the majority of activity to develop after 18Z today
along/just east of a surface trough as the bulk of upper forcing
arrives. Best chances will extend from across the Permian Basin
southwest through the Trans Pecos into the Davis Mountain region.
Activity may continue overnight with continued lift, particularly
across the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos where the LLJ will
likely aide in sustaining convection. Model guidance continues to
suggest above normal PWs (approaching 1.5-1.6 inches) today, so
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
remains through late tonight. Friday, upper forcing and best
moisture shifts east, decreasing rain chances from west to east.
Kept mention of thunderstorms in eastern zones through late Friday
night. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler today and
tomorrow due to expected rainfall and cloud cover.

Not much change to the forecast package beyond Friday with the
upper ridge progged to build back over the region through the
weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm headed into next week with
highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 by Monday. Beyond
Friday, not really seeing a good chance for rain anywhere across our
CWA so the forecast will remain dry during this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 280855
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A well defined upper low, currently seen on wv satellite imagery
spinning over SE WY tonight, will continue its eastward progression
toward the Plains today as Pacific moisture continues to stream
across the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base
of the upper low and provide upper level forcing for ascent to
help generate thunderstorms across portions of the region today
and Friday, especially given the amount of available moisture.
Expect the majority of activity to develop after 18Z today
along/just east of a surface trough as the bulk of upper forcing
arrives. Best chances will extend from across the Permian Basin
southwest through the Trans Pecos into the Davis Mountain region.
Activity may continue overnight with continued lift, particularly
across the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos where the LLJ will
likely aide in sustaining convection. Model guidance continues to
suggest above normal PWs (approaching 1.5-1.6 inches) today, so
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
remains through late tonight. Friday, upper forcing and best
moisture shifts east, decreasing rain chances from west to east.
Kept mention of thunderstorms in eastern zones through late Friday
night. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler today and
tomorrow due to expected rainfall and cloud cover.

Not much change to the forecast package beyond Friday with the
upper ridge progged to build back over the region through the
weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm headed into next week with
highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 by Monday. Beyond
Friday, not really seeing a good chance for rain anywhere across our
CWA so the forecast will remain dry during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 94  69  94  70  /  40  40  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              96  73  95  73  /  40  40  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                94  69  95  69  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                 100  76 100  75  /  30  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  72  95  71  /  30  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  66  90  66  /  20  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   91  67  93  66  /  30  30  20  20
MARFA TX                   86  60  90  60  /  30  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  72  96  72  /  40  40  30  30
ODESSA TX                  95  72  94  72  /  40  40  30  30
WINK TX                    98  73  98  73  /  30  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 280855
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
355 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A well defined upper low, currently seen on wv satellite imagery
spinning over SE WY tonight, will continue its eastward progression
toward the Plains today as Pacific moisture continues to stream
across the region. A series of shortwaves look to round the base
of the upper low and provide upper level forcing for ascent to
help generate thunderstorms across portions of the region today
and Friday, especially given the amount of available moisture.
Expect the majority of activity to develop after 18Z today
along/just east of a surface trough as the bulk of upper forcing
arrives. Best chances will extend from across the Permian Basin
southwest through the Trans Pecos into the Davis Mountain region.
Activity may continue overnight with continued lift, particularly
across the Permian Basin and lower Trans Pecos where the LLJ will
likely aide in sustaining convection. Model guidance continues to
suggest above normal PWs (approaching 1.5-1.6 inches) today, so
the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding
remains through late tonight. Friday, upper forcing and best
moisture shifts east, decreasing rain chances from west to east.
Kept mention of thunderstorms in eastern zones through late Friday
night. Temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler today and
tomorrow due to expected rainfall and cloud cover.

Not much change to the forecast package beyond Friday with the
upper ridge progged to build back over the region through the
weekend. Temperatures will gradually warm headed into next week with
highs generally in the upper 90s to near 100 by Monday. Beyond
Friday, not really seeing a good chance for rain anywhere across our
CWA so the forecast will remain dry during this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 94  69  94  70  /  40  40  30  20
BIG SPRING TX              96  73  95  73  /  40  40  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                94  69  95  69  /  20  20  20  10
DRYDEN TX                 100  76 100  75  /  30  30  30  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           95  72  95  71  /  30  30  30  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          88  66  90  66  /  20  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   91  67  93  66  /  30  30  20  20
MARFA TX                   86  60  90  60  /  30  30  20  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    96  72  96  72  /  40  40  30  30
ODESSA TX                  95  72  94  72  /  40  40  30  30
WINK TX                    98  73  98  73  /  30  30  30  20

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 280538
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the period.
Once again there will be scattered TS across the area this
afternoon and evening but will not put most TAF sites at this
time.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has been over the area will be pushed out by an
upper trough crossing the Central Rockies and into the Central
Plains.  The trough will bring height falls overnight Wednesday and
into Thursday along with better chances of rain and slightly cooler
temperatures into the mid 90s.  Temperatures will gradually increase
after the passing of the trough and the ridge begins to influence
the area again moving into the weekend.

Similar to last night, an inverted surface trough stretching from
the Davis Mountains north through SE New Mexico will be a focus for
scattered storms this evening. Storms will mainly be across The
Guadalupe Mountains and SE New Mexico Plains as there is a plume of
moisture seen on water vapor imagery moving in from the southwest.
The passing upper trough then increases the chances across the rest
of the area on Thursday.  A front will be moving southeast across
the TX Panhandle and New Mexico on Thursday and could reach into the
Permian Basin, but not expecting it to be strong if it does move
through. Still, instability and large scale lift should be enough
to produce scattered thunderstorms. There will also be increased
moisture to tap into as PWs values will be around 1.5 inches. This
amount of moisture will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall
for parts of the Permian Basin southward to the Upper Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains.

Friday will see lingering chances of thunderstorms as the trough
lifts out of the area.  Chances will remain mainly in the Eastern
Permian Basin and Eastern/Lower Trans Pecos.  With the ridge
building back, there does not look to be a great chance for rainfall
for the beginning of the weekend and into early next week.  The
upper 90s temperatures will also make a return by the end of the
weekend remaining several degrees above our normal high this time of
year in the lower 90s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 280538
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 AM CDT Thu Aug 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light winds are expected through the period.
Once again there will be scattered TS across the area this
afternoon and evening but will not put most TAF sites at this
time.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT Wed Aug 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The upper ridge that has been over the area will be pushed out by an
upper trough crossing the Central Rockies and into the Central
Plains.  The trough will bring height falls overnight Wednesday and
into Thursday along with better chances of rain and slightly cooler
temperatures into the mid 90s.  Temperatures will gradually increase
after the passing of the trough and the ridge begins to influence
the area again moving into the weekend.

Similar to last night, an inverted surface trough stretching from
the Davis Mountains north through SE New Mexico will be a focus for
scattered storms this evening. Storms will mainly be across The
Guadalupe Mountains and SE New Mexico Plains as there is a plume of
moisture seen on water vapor imagery moving in from the southwest.
The passing upper trough then increases the chances across the rest
of the area on Thursday.  A front will be moving southeast across
the TX Panhandle and New Mexico on Thursday and could reach into the
Permian Basin, but not expecting it to be strong if it does move
through. Still, instability and large scale lift should be enough
to produce scattered thunderstorms. There will also be increased
moisture to tap into as PWs values will be around 1.5 inches. This
amount of moisture will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall
for parts of the Permian Basin southward to the Upper Trans Pecos
and Davis Mountains.

Friday will see lingering chances of thunderstorms as the trough
lifts out of the area.  Chances will remain mainly in the Eastern
Permian Basin and Eastern/Lower Trans Pecos.  With the ridge
building back, there does not look to be a great chance for rainfall
for the beginning of the weekend and into early next week.  The
upper 90s temperatures will also make a return by the end of the
weekend remaining several degrees above our normal high this time of
year in the lower 90s.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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