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000
FXUS64 KMAF 041112
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the forecast
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending northward over the Rockies this morning will
build east the next few days.  This will result in warm and dry wx
for the region.  However the next upper trough will move ashore the
CA coast on Thursday becoming a cut off low.  This low will wobble
east before lifting northeast into the Central Plains.  This low may
bring storms to the region this weekend.  High pressure and mild
wx returns after that.

Currently have clear skies this morning with dewpts generally in the
30s and 40s... with a few 50s east.  Wind should be light and mainly
northerly today coming back around to the south overnight as a new
leeside trough sets up.  Temps will be near to above normal in the
80s this week with some 90s for the hotter locations.

As the upper low approaches it will put the region into SW flow
aloft and allow shortwaves to track across the region.  Models
develop first qpf out west on Friday then shifts east Saturday and
mainly out of the area Sunday.  Went ahead and added some low pops
along the TX/NM border Friday night.  May also have a dryline
wandering back and forth across the area to focus convection but
currently this feature is not looking too sharp.  Some of these
storms could be strong to severe... would be nice to have more
moisture to work with but long term guidance does not show much
increase in dewpts.  Current forecast keeps low pops mainly for the
eastern edge of the area into the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     84  53  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       83  50  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         88  58  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  86  56  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  54  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          80  49  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          78  42  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  54  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         84  55  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           87  52  93  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 041112
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
612 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light winds will prevail through the forecast
period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 315 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending northward over the Rockies this morning will
build east the next few days.  This will result in warm and dry wx
for the region.  However the next upper trough will move ashore the
CA coast on Thursday becoming a cut off low.  This low will wobble
east before lifting northeast into the Central Plains.  This low may
bring storms to the region this weekend.  High pressure and mild
wx returns after that.

Currently have clear skies this morning with dewpts generally in the
30s and 40s... with a few 50s east.  Wind should be light and mainly
northerly today coming back around to the south overnight as a new
leeside trough sets up.  Temps will be near to above normal in the
80s this week with some 90s for the hotter locations.

As the upper low approaches it will put the region into SW flow
aloft and allow shortwaves to track across the region.  Models
develop first qpf out west on Friday then shifts east Saturday and
mainly out of the area Sunday.  Went ahead and added some low pops
along the TX/NM border Friday night.  May also have a dryline
wandering back and forth across the area to focus convection but
currently this feature is not looking too sharp.  Some of these
storms could be strong to severe... would be nice to have more
moisture to work with but long term guidance does not show much
increase in dewpts.  Current forecast keeps low pops mainly for the
eastern edge of the area into the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     84  53  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       83  50  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         88  58  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  86  56  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  54  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          80  49  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          78  42  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  54  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         84  55  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           87  52  93  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 040815
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
315 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending northward over the Rockies this morning will
build east the next few days.  This will result in warm and dry wx
for the region.  However the next upper trough will move ashore the
CA coast on Thursday becoming a cut off low.  This low will wobble
east before lifting northeast into the Central Plains.  This low may
bring storms to the region this weekend.  High pressure and mild
wx returns after that.

Currently have clear skies this morning with dewpts generally in the
30s and 40s... with a few 50s east.  Wind should be light and mainly
northerly today coming back around to the south overnight as a new
leeside trough sets up.  Temps will be near to above normal in the
80s this week with some 90s for the hotter locations.

As the upper low approaches it will put the region into SW flow
aloft and allow shortwaves to track across the region.  Models
develop first qpf out west on Friday then shifts east Saturday and
mainly out of the area Sunday.  Went ahead and added some low pops
along the TX/NM border Friday night.  May also have a dryline
wandering back and forth across the area to focus convection but
currently this feature is not looking too sharp.  Some of these
storms could be strong to severe... would be nice to have more
moisture to work with but long term guidance does not show much
increase in dewpts.  Current forecast keeps low pops mainly for the
eastern edge of the area into the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     84  53  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       83  50  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         88  58  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  86  56  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  54  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          80  49  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          78  42  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  54  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         84  55  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           87  52  93  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72





000
FXUS64 KMAF 040815
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
315 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge extending northward over the Rockies this morning will
build east the next few days.  This will result in warm and dry wx
for the region.  However the next upper trough will move ashore the
CA coast on Thursday becoming a cut off low.  This low will wobble
east before lifting northeast into the Central Plains.  This low may
bring storms to the region this weekend.  High pressure and mild
wx returns after that.

Currently have clear skies this morning with dewpts generally in the
30s and 40s... with a few 50s east.  Wind should be light and mainly
northerly today coming back around to the south overnight as a new
leeside trough sets up.  Temps will be near to above normal in the
80s this week with some 90s for the hotter locations.

As the upper low approaches it will put the region into SW flow
aloft and allow shortwaves to track across the region.  Models
develop first qpf out west on Friday then shifts east Saturday and
mainly out of the area Sunday.  Went ahead and added some low pops
along the TX/NM border Friday night.  May also have a dryline
wandering back and forth across the area to focus convection but
currently this feature is not looking too sharp.  Some of these
storms could be strong to severe... would be nice to have more
moisture to work with but long term guidance does not show much
increase in dewpts.  Current forecast keeps low pops mainly for the
eastern edge of the area into the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     84  53  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       83  50  89  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         88  58  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  86  56  89  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  54  82  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          80  49  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          78  42  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           85  54  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         84  55  88  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           87  52  93  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72





000
FXUS64 KMAF 040502
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few showers have moved off to the SE, with dry VFR conditions
expected to prevail through the forecast period. Winds will
generally be out of the N/NE, and should remain under 12KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today under mostly sunny skies. Expect
afternoon temperatures to be around 5-10 degrees warmer than Monday
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. An upper trough moving south
through the TX Panhandle this afternoon has generated some showers
and thunderstorms just north of the area. This activity may
affect portions of the northern Permian Basin and potentially
southeast NM through late afternoon so pulled mention of isolated
thunderstorms south across these areas. Tonight, expect low
temperatures generally in the 40s to low 50s.

Upper ridging will build east over the region Wednesday through the
end of the week while a closed upper low enters the CA coast,
eventually making its way to near the Four Corners region by the
weekend. At the surface, light east to northeasterly winds expected
tomorrow then southerly winds return as a surface trough develops
lee of the Rockies. As a result, the warming trend will continue
through Friday with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s by
Friday afternoon. Areas along the Rio Grande Valley may approach the
century mark.

Low level moisture will be on the increase Thursday and more so
Friday as modest southeast winds increase. A weak dryline will form
on Friday and although thunderstorm parameters will not be ideal, we
may get enough heating during the afternoon for some isolated
convection near the dryline. Better chances for severe thunderstorms
will be Saturday afternoon near a sharpening dryline and then in the
evening as the dryline retreats westward. West winds will increase
across the region Sunday morning, shunting moisture and rain chances
east for the day. The dryline looks to retreat once again Sunday
evening, returning thunderstorm chances to eastern zones. The upper
low will slowly lift northeast Monday, ending rain chances through
mid week. Otherwise, near or slightly above normal temperatures
expected this weekend through the beginning of next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  53  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       83  51  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         88  58  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  84  56  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  54  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          80  49  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          78  44  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           84  54  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         84  55  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           86  52  90  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 040502
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1202 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A few showers have moved off to the SE, with dry VFR conditions
expected to prevail through the forecast period. Winds will
generally be out of the N/NE, and should remain under 12KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today under mostly sunny skies. Expect
afternoon temperatures to be around 5-10 degrees warmer than Monday
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. An upper trough moving south
through the TX Panhandle this afternoon has generated some showers
and thunderstorms just north of the area. This activity may
affect portions of the northern Permian Basin and potentially
southeast NM through late afternoon so pulled mention of isolated
thunderstorms south across these areas. Tonight, expect low
temperatures generally in the 40s to low 50s.

Upper ridging will build east over the region Wednesday through the
end of the week while a closed upper low enters the CA coast,
eventually making its way to near the Four Corners region by the
weekend. At the surface, light east to northeasterly winds expected
tomorrow then southerly winds return as a surface trough develops
lee of the Rockies. As a result, the warming trend will continue
through Friday with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s by
Friday afternoon. Areas along the Rio Grande Valley may approach the
century mark.

Low level moisture will be on the increase Thursday and more so
Friday as modest southeast winds increase. A weak dryline will form
on Friday and although thunderstorm parameters will not be ideal, we
may get enough heating during the afternoon for some isolated
convection near the dryline. Better chances for severe thunderstorms
will be Saturday afternoon near a sharpening dryline and then in the
evening as the dryline retreats westward. West winds will increase
across the region Sunday morning, shunting moisture and rain chances
east for the day. The dryline looks to retreat once again Sunday
evening, returning thunderstorm chances to eastern zones. The upper
low will slowly lift northeast Monday, ending rain chances through
mid week. Otherwise, near or slightly above normal temperatures
expected this weekend through the beginning of next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     82  53  86  59 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       83  51  88  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         88  58  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  84  56  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 76  54  81  58 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          80  49  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          78  44  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           84  54  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         84  55  87  61 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           86  52  90  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 032313
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A few showers are moving through the area along a weak cold front
this afternoon but will not impact any TAF sites. VFR conditions
will remain through the period. North to northeast winds will
continue through most of the period.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 238 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today under mostly sunny skies. Expect
afternoon temperatures to be around 5-10 degrees warmer than Monday
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. An upper trough moving south
through the TX Panhandle this afternoon has generated some showers
and thunderstorms just north of the area. This activity may
affect portions of the northern Permian Basin and potentially
southeast NM through late afternoon so pulled mention of isolated
thunderstorms south across these areas. Tonight, expect low
temperatures generally in the 40s to low 50s.

Upper ridging will build east over the region Wednesday through the
end of the week while a closed upper low enters the CA coast,
eventually making its way to near the Four Corners region by the
weekend. At the surface, light east to northeasterly winds expected
tomorrow then southerly winds return as a surface trough develops
lee of the Rockies. As a result, the warming trend will continue
through Friday with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s by
Friday afternoon. Areas along the Rio Grande Valley may approach the
century mark.

Low level moisture will be on the increase Thursday and more so
Friday as modest southeast winds increase. A weak dryline will form
on Friday and although thunderstorm parameters will not be ideal, we
may get enough heating during the afternoon for some isolated
convection near the dryline. Better chances for severe thunderstorms
will be Saturday afternoon near a sharpening dryline and then in the
evening as the dryline retreats westward. West winds will increase
across the region Sunday morning, shunting moisture and rain chances
east for the day. The dryline looks to retreat once again Sunday
evening, returning thunderstorm chances to eastern zones. The upper
low will slowly lift northeast Monday, ending rain chances through
mid week. Otherwise, near or slightly above normal temperatures
expected this weekend through the beginning of next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  82  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       47  83  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  88  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  76  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  80  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          42  78  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  84  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         52  84  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           51  86  52  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99/10





000
FXUS64 KMAF 031938
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
238 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The warming trend continues today under mostly sunny skies. Expect
afternoon temperatures to be around 5-10 degrees warmer than Monday
with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. An upper trough moving south
through the TX Panhandle this afternoon has generated some showers
and thunderstorms just north of the area. This activity may
affect portions of the northern Permian Basin and potentially
southeast NM through late afternoon so pulled mention of isolated
thunderstorms south across these areas. Tonight, expect low
temperatures generally in the 40s to low 50s.

Upper ridging will build east over the region Wednesday through the
end of the week while a closed upper low enters the CA coast,
eventually making its way to near the Four Corners region by the
weekend. At the surface, light east to northeasterly winds expected
tomorrow then southerly winds return as a surface trough develops
lee of the Rockies. As a result, the warming trend will continue
through Friday with highs climbing into the upper 80s to low 90s by
Friday afternoon. Areas along the Rio Grande Valley may approach the
century mark.

Low level moisture will be on the increase Thursday and more so
Friday as modest southeast winds increase. A weak dryline will form
on Friday and although thunderstorm parameters will not be ideal, we
may get enough heating during the afternoon for some isolated
convection near the dryline. Better chances for severe thunderstorms
will be Saturday afternoon near a sharpening dryline and then in the
evening as the dryline retreats westward. West winds will increase
across the region Sunday morning, shunting moisture and rain chances
east for the day. The dryline looks to retreat once again Sunday
evening, returning thunderstorm chances to eastern zones. The upper
low will slowly lift northeast Monday, ending rain chances through
mid week. Otherwise, near or slightly above normal temperatures
expected this weekend through the beginning of next work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     50  82  53  86 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       47  83  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  88  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  52  84  56  87 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 50  76  54  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  80  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                          42  78  44  82 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           50  84  54  87 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                         52  84  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           51  86  52  90 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

49/27





000
FXUS64 KMAF 031720
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast. A weak wind
shift to the NW is expected at HOB/MAF around 00Z/01Z,
respectively and then around the E by 12Z. A isolated storm will
be possible E of HOB and N of MAF late afternoon/early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Light E/SE winds
will shift to the N/NE late in the forecast period, but should
remain under 12KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes back across the
Central Plains this morning will swing south today and tonight.  An
upper ridge will build in behind this trough and remain over the
area the rest of the work week.  The next upper low will move ashore
the CA coast Thursday and roll across the SW US.  By Saturday this
low will be pushing into the area with SW flow aloft before lifting
northeastward Sunday and Monday.

Temps will continue to recover today with one last day in the 70s
for most of the region before 80s become widespread on Wednesday. By
Friday expect to see 90s across the Pecos river valley and over the
Big Bend.

Models do develop some precip today north of the area along a shear
axis associated with the upper trough.  Some light qpf tries to
make it down into the CWA this afternoon so went ahead and added
mention of isolated thunder north.  Currently no clouds across the
area this morning with a S/SE wind.  A weak boundary/wind shift
should drift down into the area today but not expect much from it.
Low level moisture remains fairly dry with dewpoints in the 30s
and 40s... will need to see this increase before can have much
chance of rain. By this weekend rain chances will increase with
approach of upper low but need to increase moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  82  54  86 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       49  82  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         58  87  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  84  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  76  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          46  80  49  86 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          42  77  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  83  55  87 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  83  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           53  86  55  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 031720
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1220 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast. A weak wind
shift to the NW is expected at HOB/MAF around 00Z/01Z,
respectively and then around the E by 12Z. A isolated storm will
be possible E of HOB and N of MAF late afternoon/early evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 633 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Light E/SE winds
will shift to the N/NE late in the forecast period, but should
remain under 12KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes back across the
Central Plains this morning will swing south today and tonight.  An
upper ridge will build in behind this trough and remain over the
area the rest of the work week.  The next upper low will move ashore
the CA coast Thursday and roll across the SW US.  By Saturday this
low will be pushing into the area with SW flow aloft before lifting
northeastward Sunday and Monday.

Temps will continue to recover today with one last day in the 70s
for most of the region before 80s become widespread on Wednesday. By
Friday expect to see 90s across the Pecos river valley and over the
Big Bend.

Models do develop some precip today north of the area along a shear
axis associated with the upper trough.  Some light qpf tries to
make it down into the CWA this afternoon so went ahead and added
mention of isolated thunder north.  Currently no clouds across the
area this morning with a S/SE wind.  A weak boundary/wind shift
should drift down into the area today but not expect much from it.
Low level moisture remains fairly dry with dewpoints in the 30s
and 40s... will need to see this increase before can have much
chance of rain. By this weekend rain chances will increase with
approach of upper low but need to increase moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     52  82  54  86 /  10   0   0   0
Carlsbad                       49  82  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         58  87  59  87 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  54  84  57  88 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 51  76  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          46  80  49  86 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          42  77  44  84 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           52  83  55  87 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                         53  83  55  87 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           53  86  55  92 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 031133
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
633 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Light E/SE winds
will shift to the N/NE late in the forecast period, but should
remain under 12KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 327 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes back across the
Central Plains this morning will swing south today and tonight.  An
upper ridge will build in behind this trough and remain over the
area the rest of the work week.  The next upper low will move ashore
the CA coast Thursday and roll across the SW US.  By Saturday this
low will be pushing into the area with SW flow aloft before lifting
northeastward Sunday and Monday.

Temps will continue to recover today with one last day in the 70s
for most of the region before 80s become widespread on Wednesday. By
Friday expect to see 90s across the Pecos river valley and over the
Big Bend.

Models do develop some precip today north of the area along a shear
axis associated with the upper trough.  Some light qpf tries to
make it down into the CWA this afternoon so went ahead and added
mention of isolated thunder north.  Currently no clouds across the
area this morning with a S/SE wind.  A weak boundary/wind shift
should drift down into the area today but not expect much from it.
Low level moisture remains fairly dry with dewpts in the 30s and
40s... will need to see this increase before can have much chance of
rain.  By this weekend rain chances will increase with approach of
upper low but need to increase moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  52  82  54 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         79  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  54  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 75  51  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  46  80  49 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          78  42  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           78  52  83  55 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         79  53  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 030827
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
327 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
An upper trough extending from the Great Lakes back across the
Central Plains this morning will swing south today and tonight.  An
upper ridge will build in behind this trough and remain over the
area the rest of the work week.  The next upper low will move ashore
the CA coast Thursday and roll across the SW US.  By Saturday this
low will be pushing into the area with SW flow aloft before lifting
northeastward Sunday and Monday.

Temps will continue to recover today with one last day in the 70s
for most of the region before 80s become widespread on Wednesday. By
Friday expect to see 90s across the Pecos river valley and over the
Big Bend.

Models do develop some precip today north of the area along a shear
axis associated with the upper trough.  Some light qpf tries to
make it down into the CWA this afternoon so went ahead and added
mention of isolated thunder north.  Currently no clouds across the
area this morning with a S/SE wind.  A weak boundary/wind shift
should drift down into the area today but not expect much from it.
Low level moisture remains fairly dry with dewpts in the 30s and
40s... will need to see this increase before can have much chance of
rain.  By this weekend rain chances will increase with approach of
upper low but need to increase moisture.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     77  52  82  54 /   0  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       79  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         79  58  87  59 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  80  54  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 75  51  76  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          76  46  80  49 /  10  10   0   0
Marfa                          78  42  77  44 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           78  52  83  55 /   0  10   0   0
Odessa                         79  53  83  55 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           82  53  86  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

84/72





000
FXUS64 KMAF 030449
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1149 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with light E/SE winds will prevail through the
forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

Tranquil wx is expected overnight as light a se wind returns with
a surface high just off to the e by 12Z Tue. Tue PM a shrtwv trof
will drop swd thru the Panhandle/wrn OK with some precip along the
leading edge of trough axis. Precip is mostly expected to
dissipate before entering nrn CWFA, but have included low order
PoPs across the n-ne. A bit of a secondary surge of surface high
pressure will move in thru Wed AM and light winds will continue.
Temps will slowly moderate back into the 80s by Wed. Thickness
will continue to rise into Thur PM as an amplified mid level ridge
moves into the area aiding the return of above normal temps. Also
gusty se winds will return to most areas Thur with development of
surface trof to the w. Meanwhile a closed upper low will move
into SOCAL by Fri AM. Said se surface flow will attempt to bring
low level moisture into the CWFA Fri PM, but will probably not get
established until after peak heating. 7h-5h LR/s will be very
steep and we would not be surprised to see a few high based TSRA
develop in far SW reaches of CWFA Fri PM. The better chance for
storms appears to be Sat when moisture is better along with
falling heights (cooling mid levels). Storms are possible Sunday
too per ECMWF. Fri/Sat could be hot across parts of the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps U20C-30C.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  76  51  81 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       45  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  79  56  85 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  77  47  79 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          37  76  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  79  53  83 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         48  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           48  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 022259
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
559 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail areawide tonight and Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

Tranquil wx is expected overnight as light a se wind returns with
a surface high just off to the e by 12Z Tue. Tue PM a shrtwv trof
will drop swd thru the Panhandle/wrn OK with some precip along the
leading edge of trough axis. Precip is mostly expected to
dissipate before entering nrn CWFA, but have included low order
PoPs across the n-ne. A bit of a secondary surge of surface high
pressure will move in thru Wed AM and light winds will continue.
Temps will slowly moderate back into the 80s by Wed. Thickness
will continue to rise into Thur PM as an amplified mid level ridge
moves into the area aiding the return of above normal temps. Also
gusty se winds will return to most areas Thur with development of
surface trof to the w. Meanwhile a closed upper low will move
into SOCAL by Fri AM. Said se surface flow will attempt to bring
low level moisture into the CWFA Fri PM, but will probably not get
established until after peak heating. 7h-5h LR/s will be very
steep and we would not be surprised to see a few high based TSRA
develop in far SW reaches of CWFA Fri PM. The better chance for
storms appears to be Sat when moisture is better along with
falling heights (cooling mid levels). Storms are possible Sunday
too per ECMWF. Fri/Sat could be hot across parts of the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps U20C-30C.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  76  51  81 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       45  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  79  56  85 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  77  47  79 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          37  76  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  79  53  83 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         48  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           48  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 021859
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Tranquil wx is expected overnight as light a se wind returns with
a surface high just off to the e by 12Z Tue. Tue PM a shrtwv trof
will drop swd thru the Panhandle/wrn OK with some precip along the
leading edge of trough axis. Precip is mostly expected to
dissipate before entering nrn CWFA, but have included low order
PoPs across the n-ne. A bit of a secondary surge of surface high
pressure will move in thru Wed AM and light winds will continue.
Temps will slowly moderate back into the 80s by Wed. Thickness
will continue to rise into Thur PM as an amplified mid level ridge
moves into the area aiding the return of above normal temps. Also
gusty se winds will return to most areas Thur with development of
surface trof to the w. Meanwhile a closed upper low will move
into SOCAL by Fri AM. Said se surface flow will attempt to bring
low level moisture into the CWFA Fri PM, but will probably not get
established until after peak heating. 7h-5h LR/s will be very
steep and we would not be surprised to see a few high based TSRA
develop in far SW reaches of CWFA Fri PM. The better chance for
storms appears to be Sat when moisture is better along with
falling heights (cooling mid levels). Storms are possible Sunday
too per ECMWF. Fri/Sat could be hot across parts of the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps U20C-30C.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  76  51  81 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       45  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  79  56  85 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  77  47  79 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          37  76  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  79  53  83 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         48  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           48  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 021859
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Tranquil wx is expected overnight as light a se wind returns with
a surface high just off to the e by 12Z Tue. Tue PM a shrtwv trof
will drop swd thru the Panhandle/wrn OK with some precip along the
leading edge of trough axis. Precip is mostly expected to
dissipate before entering nrn CWFA, but have included low order
PoPs across the n-ne. A bit of a secondary surge of surface high
pressure will move in thru Wed AM and light winds will continue.
Temps will slowly moderate back into the 80s by Wed. Thickness
will continue to rise into Thur PM as an amplified mid level ridge
moves into the area aiding the return of above normal temps. Also
gusty se winds will return to most areas Thur with development of
surface trof to the w. Meanwhile a closed upper low will move
into SOCAL by Fri AM. Said se surface flow will attempt to bring
low level moisture into the CWFA Fri PM, but will probably not get
established until after peak heating. 7h-5h LR/s will be very
steep and we would not be surprised to see a few high based TSRA
develop in far SW reaches of CWFA Fri PM. The better chance for
storms appears to be Sat when moisture is better along with
falling heights (cooling mid levels). Storms are possible Sunday
too per ECMWF. Fri/Sat could be hot across parts of the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps U20C-30C.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     46  76  51  81 /   0   0  10   0
Carlsbad                       45  80  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         52  79  56  85 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Stockton                  50  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 47  74  52  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          44  77  47  79 /   0   0  10   0
Marfa                          37  76  44  78 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           47  79  53  83 /   0   0  10   0
Odessa                         48  79  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                           48  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 021713
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Low cloud deck will continue to quickly
erode early this afternoon with clear skies expected shortly.
Northerly winds will veer to the southeast through the day and
remain fairly light through the TAF cycle.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning is showing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the southeastern Permian Basin. Lift from the
right rear quadrant of a departing jet streak is combining with
low level isentropic lift to cause this convection which will
diminish after 12Z as the jet max moves off to the east. Skies
will gradually clear this afternoon but thanks to a continued
light northerly flow high temps today will still be well below
normal.

An upper level ridge will develop over the western U.S. by
Wednesday causing temps to rise back to near or slightly above
normal for the latter half of the week. An upper low will move
onto the west coast and approach the CWA by the weekend backing
upper flow and giving a return of rain chances. The latest model
runs are slightly stronger and slower than the runs from 24 hours
ago which would help our chances for seeing rain this weekend. For
now though will keep low chance PoPs in the forecast until better
model consistency is seen with regards to strength and track of
the low.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  45  75  50 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  53  78  57 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  50  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  48  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          66  44  75  47 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          65  39  75  42 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  49  78  54 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         70  50  79  55 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           72  48  82  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49





000
FXUS64 KMAF 021713
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1213 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016


.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No aviation concerns for the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Low cloud deck will continue to quickly
erode early this afternoon with clear skies expected shortly.
Northerly winds will veer to the southeast through the day and
remain fairly light through the TAF cycle.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning is showing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the southeastern Permian Basin. Lift from the
right rear quadrant of a departing jet streak is combining with
low level isentropic lift to cause this convection which will
diminish after 12Z as the jet max moves off to the east. Skies
will gradually clear this afternoon but thanks to a continued
light northerly flow high temps today will still be well below
normal.

An upper level ridge will develop over the western U.S. by
Wednesday causing temps to rise back to near or slightly above
normal for the latter half of the week. An upper low will move
onto the west coast and approach the CWA by the weekend backing
upper flow and giving a return of rain chances. The latest model
runs are slightly stronger and slower than the runs from 24 hours
ago which would help our chances for seeing rain this weekend. For
now though will keep low chance PoPs in the forecast until better
model consistency is seen with regards to strength and track of
the low.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  45  75  50 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  53  78  57 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  50  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  48  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          66  44  75  47 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          65  39  75  42 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  49  78  54 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         70  50  79  55 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           72  48  82  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49





000
FXUS64 KMAF 021113
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. A weakening upper level
storm system across the Rockies and Plains will generate considerable
clouds this morning in the 4k to 8k layer. Decreasing clouds are
expected this afternoon with skies clearing by mid to late afternoon
and continuing tonight. Winds will generally be northerly at 10
to 15 mph this morning and then become easterly at 5 to 10 mph
this afternoon and this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning is showing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the southeastern Permian Basin. Lift from the
right rear quadrant of a departing jet streak is combining with
low level isentropic lift to cause this convection which will
diminish after 12Z as the jet max moves off to the east. Skies
will gradually clear this afternoon but thanks to a continued
light northerly flow high temps today will still be well below
normal.

An upper level ridge will develop over the western U.S. by
Wednesday causing temps to rise back to near or slightly above
normal for the latter half of the week. An upper low will move
onto the west coast and approach the CWA by the weekend backing
upper flow and giving a return of rain chances. The latest model
runs are slightly stronger and slower than the runs from 24 hours
ago which would help our chances for seeing rain this weekend. For
now though will keep low chance PoPs in the forecast until better
model consistency is seen with regards to strength and track of
the low.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  45  75  50 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  53  78  57 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  50  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  48  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          66  44  75  47 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          65  39  75  42 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  49  78  54 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         70  50  79  55 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           72  48  82  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/10





000
FXUS64 KMAF 021113
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
613 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. A weakening upper level
storm system across the Rockies and Plains will generate considerable
clouds this morning in the 4k to 8k layer. Decreasing clouds are
expected this afternoon with skies clearing by mid to late afternoon
and continuing tonight. Winds will generally be northerly at 10
to 15 mph this morning and then become easterly at 5 to 10 mph
this afternoon and this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning is showing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the southeastern Permian Basin. Lift from the
right rear quadrant of a departing jet streak is combining with
low level isentropic lift to cause this convection which will
diminish after 12Z as the jet max moves off to the east. Skies
will gradually clear this afternoon but thanks to a continued
light northerly flow high temps today will still be well below
normal.

An upper level ridge will develop over the western U.S. by
Wednesday causing temps to rise back to near or slightly above
normal for the latter half of the week. An upper low will move
onto the west coast and approach the CWA by the weekend backing
upper flow and giving a return of rain chances. The latest model
runs are slightly stronger and slower than the runs from 24 hours
ago which would help our chances for seeing rain this weekend. For
now though will keep low chance PoPs in the forecast until better
model consistency is seen with regards to strength and track of
the low.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  45  75  50 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  53  78  57 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  50  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  48  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          66  44  75  47 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          65  39  75  42 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  49  78  54 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         70  50  79  55 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           72  48  82  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/10





000
FXUS64 KMAF 020816
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
316 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Radar this morning is showing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the southeastern Permian Basin. Lift from the
right rear quadrant of a departing jet streak is combining with
low level isentropic lift to cause this convection which will
diminish after 12Z as the jet max moves off to the east. Skies
will gradually clear this afternoon but thanks to a continued
light northerly flow high temps today will still be well below
normal.

An upper level ridge will develop over the western U.S. by
Wednesday causing temps to rise back to near or slightly above
normal for the latter half of the week. An upper low will move
onto the west coast and approach the CWA by the weekend backing
upper flow and giving a return of rain chances. The latest model
runs are slightly stronger and slower than the runs from 24 hours
ago which would help our chances for seeing rain this weekend. For
now though will keep low chance PoPs in the forecast until better
model consistency is seen with regards to strength and track of
the low.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     67  45  75  50 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                       68  45  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                         70  53  78  57 /  20  10   0   0
Fort Stockton                  67  50  78  54 /  10   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 60  48  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          66  44  75  47 /   0   0   0  10
Marfa                          65  39  75  42 /  10   0   0  10
Midland Intl Airport           70  49  78  54 /  10   0   0  10
Odessa                         70  50  79  55 /  10   0   0  10
Wink                           72  48  82  53 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

12/10





000
FXUS64 KMAF 020456
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1156 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours at the west Texas
and southeast New Mexico terminals. A weakening upper level
storm system across the Rockies and Plains will generate
considerable clouds through Monday morning in the 4k to 8k layer.
Decreasing clouds are expected Monday afternoon. Winds will
generally be northerly at 10 to 15 mph through Monday morning and
then become easterly at 5 to 10 mph Monday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 538 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

It appears the low cloud deck will persist over all southeast New
Mexico and west texas overnight, but will mainly stay low VFR.  KCNM
and KHOB may see a period of high MVFR ceilings through 02/04Z, but
do not expect these to last.  The cloud deck will dissipate Monday,
likely by 02/15Z, or shortly thereafter.  VFR will prevail after.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

The unseasonably strong cold front has already made it to near
the Rio Grande with scattered very light showers still across the
E-NE PB. Have made some late adjustment to drop high temps a few
degrees and lower PoPs across the west for the rest of the
afternoon. Isentropic ascent along I295-305 has been persisting,
but will tend to decrease overnight as winds in that layer back to
NE. Higher up on the I305 surface there will a boundary across the
ern Lower Trans Pecos and points ewd which will serve to renew
precip possibilities toward early Mon AM thru 18Z, aided somewhat
by an upper jet passing to the N. After 18Z precip chance will
drop off to nil. After a cool start Mon AM (widespread lows in the
40s) some afternoon insolation will serve to push high temps into
the M60s-L70s for most areas, warmer along the Rio Grande. A mid
level trof is to drop sewd early Wed AM which may serve to build
surface high pressure south at least into the nrn CWFA. Otherwise
thickness will increase Wed PM and a warming trend will follow
through Sat. It does look hot and dry Fri-Sat across the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps of 25-30C. Dryline storms will be
possible east and south, maybe as early as Fri if moisture return
occurs quick enough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     62  44  66  46 /  30  30  10   0
Carlsbad                       54  43  68  46 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         76  54  70  52 /  40  50  30  10
Fort Stockton                  63  49  68  50 /  30  20  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 52  38  62  47 /  10   0   0   0
Hobbs                          52  40  67  44 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                          63  39  65  39 /  10  10  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           61  45  69  48 /  30  20  10   0
Odessa                         61  45  69  49 /  30  20  10   0
Wink                           61  47  72  48 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

99/99





000
FXUS64 KMAF 012238
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
538 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

It appears the low cloud deck will persist over all southeast New
Mexico and west texas overnight, but will mainly stay low VFR.  KCNM
and KHOB may see a period of high MVFR ceilings through 02/04Z, but
do not expect these to last.  The cloud deck will dissipate Monday,
likely by 02/15Z, or shortly thereafter.  VFR will prevail after.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 200 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

The unseasonably strong cold front has already made it to near
the Rio Grande with scattered very light showers still across the
E-NE PB. Have made some late adjustment to drop high temps a few
degrees and lower PoPs across the west for the rest of the
afternoon. Isentropic ascent along I295-305 has been persisting,
but will tend to decrease overnight as winds in that layer back to
NE. Higher up on the I305 surface there will a boundary across the
ern Lower Trans Pecos and points ewd which will serve to renew
precip possibilities toward early Mon AM thru 18Z, aided somewhat
by an upper jet passing to the N. After 18Z precip chance will
drop off to nil. After a cool start Mon AM (widespread lows in the
40s) some afternoon insolation will serve to push high temps into
the M60s-L70s for most areas, warmer along the Rio Grande. A mid
level trof is to drop sewd early Wed AM which may serve to build
surface high pressure south at least into the nrn CWFA. Otherwise
thickness will increase Wed PM and a warming trend will follow
through Sat. It does look hot and dry Fri-Sat across the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps of 25-30C. Dryline storms will be
possible east and south, maybe as early as Fri if moisture return
occurs quick enough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  66  46  76 /  30  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  68  46  78 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  70  52  78 /  50  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  49  68  50  78 /  20  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 38  62  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  67  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  65  39  75 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  69  48  78 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                         45  69  49  78 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           47  72  48  81 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 011900
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
200 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The unseasonably strong cold front has already made it to near
the Rio Grande with scattered very light showers still across the
E-NE PB. Have made some late adjustment to drop high temps a few
degrees and lower PoPs across the west for the rest of the
afternoon. Isentropic ascent along I295-305 has been persisting,
but will tend to decrease overnight as winds in that layer back to
NE. Higher up on the I305 surface there will a boundary across the
ern Lower Trans Pecos and points ewd which will serve to renew
precip possibilities toward early Mon AM thru 18Z, aided somewhat
by an upper jet passing to the N. After 18Z precip chance will
drop off to nil. After a cool start Mon AM (widespread lows in the
40s) some afternoon insolation will serve to push high temps into
the M60s-L70s for most areas, warmer along the Rio Grande. A mid
level trof is to drop sewd early Wed AM which may serve to build
surface high pressure south at least into the nrn CWFA. Otherwise
thickness will increase Wed PM and a warming trend will follow
through Sat. It does look hot and dry Fri-Sat across the Trans
Pecos/SE NM with 85h temps of 25-30C. Dryline storms will be
possible east and south, maybe as early as Fri if moisture return
occurs quick enough.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     44  66  46  76 /  30  10   0   0
Carlsbad                       43  68  46  78 /  10   0   0   0
Dryden                         54  70  52  78 /  50  30  10   0
Fort Stockton                  49  68  50  78 /  20  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass                 38  62  47  73 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                          40  67  44  75 /  10   0   0   0
Marfa                          39  65  39  75 /  10  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport           45  69  48  78 /  20  10   0   0
Odessa                         45  69  49  78 /  20  10   0   0
Wink                           47  72  48  81 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 011732
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance.

No major aviation concerns the next 24 hours as most terminals will
continue to see VFR flight conditions. Currently have a 3-4kft cloud
deck over the region along with gusty NE winds thanks to a strong
cold front that moved through early this morning. FST is the only
terminal reporting MVFR cigs but should return to VFR by mid
afternoon. Could see brief periods of light rain today but not
widespread enough to warrant mention in the TAF. Thunder may be
possible later this afternoon particularly near FST however
confidence is too low attm to include mention. Otherwise, winds will
continue to diminish through the afternoon.


&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 349 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The cold front that was hanging around the area yesterday will get
a good push south as high pressure builds into eastern New Mexico
and West Texas this morning. Already we are seeing increasing
north winds to our north with temperatures dropping into the 40s.
The strong cold air advection will be aided by increasing clouds
to give much cooler highs today than we have seen in quite a
while. No doubt the calendar day high in most locations will be
what the temperature was around midnight, but there is still the
question of the afternoon highs for today. The MET/MAV are both
showing highs around 20 degrees colder than those seen yesterday
and given pretty good run to run consistency, decided to stay
close to guidance highs for this forecast though did go a few
degrees above just in case there are some afternoon breaks in the
cloud coverage. Models have been trending lighter with QPF amounts
on rainfall today likely due to the upper low producing the rain
weakening as it moves northeast into the plains later today.
Therefore have lowered PoPs today and even those areas that do see
precipitation will probably only see light amounts.

The surface high will only slowly move east providing unseasonably
cool temps through Tuesday before the heat returns midweek. An
upper level ridge will develop over the Rocky Mountains late in
the week causing highs to rise back to near 90 degrees. Another
large low pressure system will move into the west coast over the
weekend and may provide our next chance for rainfall. Models are
showing some disagreement with the track of this low with the GFS
being the strongest and farthest south. It is showing some decent
QPF over the weekend for our CWA however it is also showing the
low weakening and moving northeast as it moves across the Rockies.
That would be very similar to the current low which models were
bullish with precip early on and are now backing off so will keep
PoPs low in the extended for now.

Hennig

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring                     63  45  69  45 /  30  30  20   0
Carlsbad                       59  42  69  45 /  30  10   0   0
Dryden                         77  55  70  54 /  30  60  30  10
Fort Stockton                  65  49  67  50 /  30  40  20   0
Guadalupe Pass                 57  39  62  46 /  10  10   0   0
Hobbs                          56  41  67  44 /  30  10   0   0
Marfa                          66  39  66  38 /  10  20  10   0
Midland Intl Airport           63  47  70  49 /  30  30  10   0
Odessa                         63  48  70  50 /  30  30  10   0
Wink                           64  48  73  49 /  30  20  10   0

&&

.MAF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

27/49





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