Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KMAF 241112 CCA
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
610 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS
AROUND 20KT AND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30KT, BEHIND IT AT ALL BUT KFST AND
KPEQ.  BLOWING DUST COULD KNOCK VISIBILITY DOWN TO AROUND 3SM, SO
WILL INCLUDE TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITY AT KCNM, KHOB, KINK AND
KMAF.  NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH TONIGHT.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA TODAY. IT WILL DROP
A DRY COLD FRONT IN ITS WAKE TODAY AND RESULT IN TEMPERATURES
KNOCKED BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF IT.
LEE TROUGH FORMATION AND LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGING WILL
RESULT IN MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN EAST OF THE DRYLINE FRIDAY, THE ATMOSPHERE
IS PROGGED TO BECOME UNSTABLE BUT AM NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ABSENT ANY MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE IN
THE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW. BY SATURDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DIG TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. FORCING ALOFT
WILL INCREASE AS THIS HAPPENS EAST OF THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE
EASTERN PERMIAN BASIN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP WITH HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE IN
THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR.

THE POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AND DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE AREA. BEHIND THIS FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL BE KNOCKED BACK TO
NORMAL SUNDAY WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.
ADDED AREAS OF BLOWING DUST SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN INCLUDING THE UPPER TRANS PECOS
AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. HIGH WINDS LOOK LIKELY ACROSS THE
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS WITH WIND ADVISORIES LIKELY NEEDED FOR
PORTION OF THE PLAINS.

DRY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED BY CONSENSUS TO TAKE
PLACE EARLY TO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
COOL CONDITIONS WITH NO PRECIPITATION. WENT SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER
THAN GUIDANCE ON HIGH TEMPERATURES PER PROGGED 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

FIRE WEATHER...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OVER THE AREA TODAY, WITH GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS LASTING THROUGH THE MORNING.  DRY AIR WILL REMAIN
OVER THE REGION, BUT IT APPEARS 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE
BEFORE MAX HEATING, AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH/S DROP TO 10 TO 15
PERCENT OVER ALL OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND MOST OF WEST TEXAS.
RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE POOR TO FAIR AS DRY AIR STAYS ENTRENCHED
OVER THE AREA UNDER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

ON FRIDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY, WITH 20
FOOT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING OVER THE GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS AND
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS.  A DRYLINE WILL FORM
OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN WITH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH/S DROPPING TO 5 TO
15 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF A LAMESA TO BIG BEND LINE, BUT ONLY TO
15 TO 30 PERCENT TO THE EAST.  TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND FIRE DANGER WILL BE VERY HIGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
SINCE 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 MPH OR GREATER OVER
THE GUADALUPES AND SE NM PLAINS, WILL ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR
THESE AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, OR FROM 25/18Z UNTIL
26/02Z.  RECOVERY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE POOR ALONG AND WEST OF A
CARLSBAD TO MARFA TO LAJITAS LINE, AND GOOD TO THE EAST AS THE
DRYLINE MOVES WESTWARD OVERNIGHT.

A MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION, AND
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AHEAD OF IT.  THINK LOCATIONS
ALONG AND WEST OF A SEMINOLE TO KERMIT TO FORT DAVIS LINE WILL HAVE
SEVERAL HOURS OF WARM, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS, SO WILL ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE AREAS FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL
SATURDAY EVENING.  PORTIONS OF THE PERMIAN BASIN COULD BE ADDED TO
THIS WATCH IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD AND 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS END UP
STRONGER FURTHER EAST.  RECOVERY LOOKS POOR OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  52  89  62  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  50  93  68  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                81  48  90  57  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  92  62  91  67  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  59  93  63  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          78  54  81  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   79  47  86  54  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   79  41  85  47  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    80  53  91  65  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  82  56  90  66  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    82  56  91  60  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS NP/LINCOLN
     NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS
     NP/LINCOLN NF/LNZ...SOUTHEAST PLAINS/BLM ROSWELL/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... ANDREWS...DAVIS/APACHE
     MOUNTAINS AREA...GAINES...GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...LOVING...
     REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS...VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY
     54 CORRIDOR...WARD...WINKLER.


&&

$$

67/12








000
FXUS64 KMAF 241059
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
559 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will move south through the area, with sustained winds
around 20kt and gusts of 25 to 30kt, behind it at all but KFST and
KPEQ.  Northerly winds will decrease this afternoon with VFR
conditions continuing through tonight.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014/

Upper level trough axis across the central high plains will
continue to move east away from the area today. It will drop
a dry cold front in its wake today and result in temperatures
knocked back to near normal values this afternoon and tonight
under mostly clear skies.

The next upper level trough will move onshore across the west
coast Friday with west to southwest flow aloft ahead of it.
Lee trough formation and low level thermal ridging will
result in much above normal temperatures Friday through Saturday.
Across the Permian Basin east of the dryline Friday, the atmosphere
is progged to become unstable but am not anticipating any
thunderstorm development absent any meaningful shortwave in
the nearly zonal flow. By Saturday the aforementioned upper level
system is forecast to dig to the southern Rockies. Forcing aloft
will increase as this happens east of the dryline across the
eastern Permian Basin in the late afternoon and early evening.
Will Continue to mention the chance of thunderstorms in this area.
Breezy to windy conditions will develop with high winds possible in
the Guadalupe Mountains Saturday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

The potent upper level system is forecast to track across the
western high plains Sunday and drag another cold front through
the area. Behind this front temperatures will be knocked back to
normal Sunday with windy to very windy conditions developing.
Added areas of blowing dust Sunday afternoon across the northern
and central Permian Basin including the upper Trans Pecos
and southeast New Mexico. High winds look likely across the
Guadalupe Mountains with wind advisories likely needed for
portion of the plains.

Dry cyclonic northwest flow aloft is progged by consensus to take
place early to the middle of next week. This should result in
cool conditions with no precipitation. Went several degrees cooler
than guidance on high temperatures per progged 850 millibar
temperature forecast.

FIRE WEATHER...

A cold front will move south over the area today, with gusty
northerly winds lasting through the morning.  Dry air will remain
over the region, but it appears 20 foot wind speeds will decrease
before max heating, and minimum afternoon RH/s drop to 10 to 15
percent over all of southeast New Mexico and most of West Texas.
Recovery tonight will be poor to fair as dry air stays entrenched
over the area under westerly flow aloft.

On Friday, the flow aloft will become more southwesterly, with 20
foot southwesterly winds increasing over the Guadalupe Mountains and
portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  A dryline will form
over the Permian Basin with minimum afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to
15 percent along and west of a Lamesa to Big Bend line, but only to
15 to 30 percent to the east.  Temperatures will warm well above
normal and fire danger will be very high across the forecast area.
Since 20 foot wind speeds are expected to be 20 mph or greater over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains, will issue a Fire weather Watch for
these areas Friday afternoon and evening, or from 25/18Z until
26/02Z.  Recovery Friday night will be poor along and west of a
Carlsbad to Marfa to Lajitas line, and good to the east as the
dryline moves westward overnight.

A more widespread critical fire weather day is shaping up for
Saturday as an upper storm system approaches the region, and
southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of it.  Think locations
along and west of a Seminole to Kermit to Fort Davis line will have
several hours of warm, dry and windy conditions, so will issue a
Fire Weather watch for these areas from late Saturday morning until
Saturday evening.  Portions of the Permian Basin could be added to
this watch if current trends hold and 20 foot wind speeds end up
stronger further east.  Recovery looks poor over most of the
forecast area Saturday night, and will be followed by even more
widespread critical fire weather conditions Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  52  89  62  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  50  93  68  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                81  48  90  57  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  92  62  91  67  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  59  93  63  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          78  54  81  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   79  47  86  54  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   79  41  85  47  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    80  53  91  65  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  82  56  90  66  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    82  56  91  60  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/12






000
FXUS64 KMAF 240854
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
354 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level trough axis across the central high plains will
continue to move east away from the area today. It will drop
a dry cold front in its wake today and result in temperatures
knocked back to near normal values this afternoon and tonight
under mostly clear skies.

The next upper level trough will move onshore across the west
coast Friday with west to southwest flow aloft ahead of it.
Lee trough formation and low level thermal ridging will
result in much above normal temperatures Friday through Saturday.
Across the Permian Basin east of the dryline Friday, the atmosphere
is progged to become unstable but am not anticipating any
thunderstorm development absent any meaningful shortwave in
the nearly zonal flow. By Saturday the aforementioned upper level
system is forecast to dig to the southern Rockies. Forcing aloft
will increase as this happens east of the dryline across the
eastern Permian Basin in the late afternoon and early evening.
Will Continue to mention the chance of thunderstorms in this area.
Breezy to windy conditions will develop with high winds possible in
the Guadalupe Mountains Saturday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

The potent upper level system is forecast to track across the
western high plains Sunday and drag another cold front through
the area. Behind this front temperatures will be knocked back to
normal Sunday with windy to very windy conditions developing.
Added areas of blowing dust Sunday afternoon across the northern
and central Permian Basin including the upper Trans Pecos
and southeast New Mexico. High winds look likely across the
Guadalupe Mountains with wind advisories likely needed for
portion of the plains.

Dry cyclonic northwest flow aloft is progged by consensus to take
place early to the middle of next week. This should result in
cool conditions with no precipitation. Went several degrees cooler
than guidance on high temperatures per progged 850 millibar
temperature forecast.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move south over the area today, with gusty
northerly winds lasting through the morning.  Dry air will remain
over the region, but it appears 20 foot wind speeds will decrease
before max heating, and minimum afternoon RH/s drop to 10 to 15
percent over all of southeast New Mexico and most of West Texas.
Recovery tonight will be poor to fair as dry air stays entrenched
over the area under westerly flow aloft.

On Friday, the flow aloft will become more southwesterly, with 20
foot southwesterly winds increasing over the Guadalupe Mountains and
portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.  A dryline will form
over the Permian Basin with minimum afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to
15 percent along and west of a Lamesa to Big Bend line, but only to
15 to 30 percent to the east.  Temperatures will warm well above
normal and fire danger will be very high across the forecast area.
Since 20 foot wind speeds are expected to be 20 mph or greater over
the Guadalupes and SE NM Plains, will issue a Fire weather Watch for
these areas Friday afternoon and evening, or from 25/18Z until
26/02Z.  Recovery Friday night will be poor along and west of a
Carlsbad to Marfa to Lajitas line, and good to the east as the
dryline moves westward overnight.

A more widespread critical fire weather day is shaping up for
Saturday as an upper storm system approaches the region, and
southwesterly flow aloft increases ahead of it.  Think locations
along and west of a Seminole to Kermit to Fort Davis line will have
several hours of warm, dry and windy conditions, so will issue a
Fire Weather watch for these areas from late Saturday morning until
Saturday evening.  Portions of the Permian Basin could be added to
this watch if current trends hold and 20 foot wind speeds end up
stronger further east.  Recovery looks poor over most of the
forecast area Saturday night, and will be followed by even more
widespread critical fire weather conditions Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  52  89  62  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  50  93  68  /   0   0  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                81  48  90  57  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  92  62  91  67  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           84  59  93  63  /   0   0  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          78  54  81  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   79  47  86  54  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   79  41  85  47  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    80  53  91  65  /   0   0  10  10
ODESSA TX                  82  56  90  66  /   0   0  10  10
WINK TX                    82  56  91  60  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Saturday morning through Saturday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Davis/Apache
     Mountains Area...Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Van Horn and Highway
     54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

67/12






000
FXUS64 KMAF 240530
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1230 AM CDT Thu Apr 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A low level jet over the Permian Basin will shift off to the
northeast by 24/08Z, while a surface trough gradually shifts east
overnight.  Surface winds will veer and stay mainly below 12kt
sustained until a cold front moves south through the region.  Expect
winds to increase to 15 to 20kt sustained from the northwest and be
gusty from around 24/14Z until 24/18Z behind the front.  Winds will
settle thereafter while VFR conditions continue to prevail.  67

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMAF 240306
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1006 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Convection has died out w/loss of diurnal heating, w/dryline
retreating. Sfc obs out west indicate RFW conditions have ended,
as have high winds in the Guadalupes. We`ll do a quick update to
remove these watches/warnings.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis shows
the dryline east of KMAF/KFST, so convection is not likely this
evening. Sfc winds will veer overnight as a cold front approaches,
moving thru terminals 14-16Z Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  58  81  54  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  60  83  55  /  20  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  54  83  50  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  96  65  95  62  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  59  86  59  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  55  76  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   85  51  78  48  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  46  79  42  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  60  84  56  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  89  61  84  58  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    89  57  85  55  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/27







000
FXUS64 KMAF 240306
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1006 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Convection has died out w/loss of diurnal heating, w/dryline
retreating. Sfc obs out west indicate RFW conditions have ended,
as have high winds in the Guadalupes. We`ll do a quick update to
remove these watches/warnings.  Updates out shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis shows
the dryline east of KMAF/KFST, so convection is not likely this
evening. Sfc winds will veer overnight as a cold front approaches,
moving thru terminals 14-16Z Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  58  81  54  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  60  83  55  /  20  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  54  83  50  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  96  65  95  62  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  59  86  59  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  55  76  57  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   85  51  78  48  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  46  79  42  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  60  84  56  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  89  61  84  58  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    89  57  85  55  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/27






000
FXUS64 KMAF 232209
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
509 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis shows
the dryline east of KMAF/KFST, so convection is not likely this
evening. Sfc winds will veer overnight as a cold front approaches,
moving thru terminals 14-16Z Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44






000
FXUS64 KMAF 232209
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
509 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Latest sfc analysis shows
the dryline east of KMAF/KFST, so convection is not likely this
evening. Sfc winds will veer overnight as a cold front approaches,
moving thru terminals 14-16Z Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44







000
FXUS64 KMAF 232054
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  81  54  89  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              60  83  55  92  /  20   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  83  50  91  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  95  62  93  /  20   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  59  92  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  76  57  82  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  78  48  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   46  79  42  85  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  84  56  91  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  61  84  58  90  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    57  85  55  92  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/27






000
FXUS64 KMAF 232054
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
354 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Updated zones for Svr T-Storm Watch # 88 for Mitchell and Scurry
Counties until 11 PM CDT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  81  54  89  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              60  83  55  92  /  20   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  83  50  91  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  95  62  93  /  20   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  59  92  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  76  57  82  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  78  48  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   46  79  42  85  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  84  56  91  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  61  84  58  90  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    57  85  55  92  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/27







000
FXUS64 KMAF 231943
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  81  54  89  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              60  83  55  92  /  20   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  83  50  91  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  95  62  93  /  20   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  59  92  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  76  57  82  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  78  48  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   46  79  42  85  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  84  56  91  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  61  84  58  90  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    57  85  55  92  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

72/29







000
FXUS64 KMAF 231943
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
243 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Seeing our first sign of CU development along the dryline which runs
from Lubbock to Lamesa to Midland at 2 PM. Expect clouds to continue
to build into the afternoon as the dryline pushes east. Short range
models develop convection along and east of the dryline over the
next few hours. SPC mesoanalysis shows nearly 3000 J/kg of MUCAPE
and low and mid level lapse rates >8 C/km over the eastern Permian
Basin and lower Trans Pecos. One ingredient lacking is the overall
shear which is only about 20 to 30 kts. With the approach of the
storm system, still expect shear to increase into the late afternoon
and evening. Any storm that develops will have the chance to become
severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threat.
These storms should move east of the area late tonight with clearing
skies following. Winds continue to increase across the Guadalupe
Mountains this afternoon so will let the High Wind Warning ride
there.

A cold front will move in behind the system, sliding through the
area Thursday morning. Temperatures will cool slightly Thursday
afternoon with highs mostly in the 80s. Attention then turns to the
west again as our next storm system digs south along the CA coast. A
large upper trough will move east across the Desert SW late this
week before lifting into the Plains Sunday. This will set up a
dryline across the area once again Friday and Saturday. A few storms
may fire Friday east of the dryline across the eastern Permian
Basin, but short-wave ridging should limit the extent. By Saturday
afternoon, the upper trough will move closer to the area enhancing
lift and increasing upper level shear. Intense sfc heating and ample
moisture return will lead to strong instability east of the dryline.
A deeper trough this time around could lead to a farther west
dryline solution. Models largely disagree in the placement of the
dryline Saturday afternoon with the GFS/ECMWF over the central
Permian Basin, and the NAM east of our CWA. Will side with the long
range models for now as the NAM has a tendency to shift the dryline
west with time.

Sunday looks very windy as the base of the upper trough moves across
the area. The strong west winds will likely lead to high wind
headlines and elevated fire danger across parts or most of the
region. A cold front will arrive later Monday into Tuesday ushering
much cooler conditions by midweek.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A dryline pushing east has left very dry air in its wake.  Minimum
RH below 15 percent along with 20ft winds of 20 mph or greater has
created critical fire wx conditions.  Will continue the Red Flag
Warning the rest of the afternoon into this evening for Southeast
New Mexico plains and Guadalupe Mountains.  A cold front will blow
through early Thursday lessening the fire wx concerns for a couple
days.  Could see isolated locations such as the Guadalupes near
critical Friday but more widespread concerns will return Saturday
and Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 58  81  54  89  /  10   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              60  83  55  92  /  20   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  83  50  91  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  95  62  93  /  20   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  59  92  /  10   0   0  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          55  76  57  82  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   51  78  48  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   46  79  42  85  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    60  84  56  91  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  61  84  58  90  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    57  85  55  92  /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

72/29






000
FXUS64 KMAF 231738
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A dryline will continue to push east this afternoon with a few
thunderstorms possible.  Expect storms to develop east of MAF and
FST so have not included.  Gusty S to SW wind will continue through
sunset before dropping off.  A cold front will move through the
area tomorrow morning around sunrise.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A Large upper level trough across the western states will slowly
move eastward from the Great Basin today to the high plains by
Thursday morning. As this occurs the associated surface
trough/low across the western high plains will shift eastward
today toward the eastern Permian Basin by this evening and to
central Texas by Thursday morning. Increasing low level convergence
and upper level forcing should encourage thunderstorm development
along the stalling dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon. More thunderstorm development
will be possible tonight in these areas as the dryline retreats
toward the eastern Permian Basin as the upper level trough
approaches. Some storms could be severe given cape values of 1000
to 2000 j/kg and 0 to 6 kilometer shear of 30 knots. High winds
are also likely in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and this
evening as the system approaches. A high wind warning has been
issued for that area.

Cooler (but still above normal) temperatures and fair conditions
will follow this system Thursday as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

Southwesterly flow aloft will develop by Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next potent upper level storm system approaching from the
western states. Much above normal temperatures are expected as
another lee surface low/dry line develops in this flow. Thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening along and east of
the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin as the upper system
tracks to Arizona by evening. Behind the dryline breezy to windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Saturday.

Windy, Cooler and dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday
behind the dryline and cold front with high winds possible again
in the Guadalupe Mountains. Cool with below normal temperatures
and fair conditions may continue next Tuesday and Wednesday
with upper level cyclonic flow progged to be over the forecast
area.

FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline will sharpen up over the area this afternoon as
southwesterly winds increase ahead of an upper level storm system
moving over New Mexico.  Temperatures will warm above normal to the
west of the dryline with afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent
along and west of an Andrews to Big Bend line.  Since 20 foot winds
will increase to 20 to 25 mph sustained across the Guadalupe
Mountains and over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, and
fire danger will be very high, a Red Flag warning will continue in
effect in these areas from 11 am until 9 pm MDT.  The highest winds
are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is
in effect from noon until midnight MDT.  Recovery will mainly be
poor to fair tonight.

A cold front will move south over the area Thursday.  20 foot winds
behind the front will rise to 15 to 20 mph over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin Thursday morning, but should be 10 to
15 mph at best during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be
closer to normal, but most locations will see minimum afternoon RH/s
of 10 to 15 percent.  After poor to fair recovery west of the Pecos
River Thursday night, and good to the east, another upper storm
system will begin to approach the region.  Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains Friday
afternoon, if not over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.
However, much more widespread windy conditions will occur over all
of southeast New Mexico and West Texas Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be well above normal Saturday, but not quite as
warm Sunday.  Regardless, it appears low RH/s will combine with high
to very high fire danger to create widespread critical fire weather
both days.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMAF 231738
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1238 PM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
A dryline will continue to push east this afternoon with a few
thunderstorms possible.  Expect storms to develop east of MAF and
FST so have not included.  Gusty S to SW wind will continue through
sunset before dropping off.  A cold front will move through the
area tomorrow morning around sunrise.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A Large upper level trough across the western states will slowly
move eastward from the Great Basin today to the high plains by
Thursday morning. As this occurs the associated surface
trough/low across the western high plains will shift eastward
today toward the eastern Permian Basin by this evening and to
central Texas by Thursday morning. Increasing low level convergence
and upper level forcing should encourage thunderstorm development
along the stalling dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon. More thunderstorm development
will be possible tonight in these areas as the dryline retreats
toward the eastern Permian Basin as the upper level trough
approaches. Some storms could be severe given cape values of 1000
to 2000 j/kg and 0 to 6 kilometer shear of 30 knots. High winds
are also likely in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and this
evening as the system approaches. A high wind warning has been
issued for that area.

Cooler (but still above normal) temperatures and fair conditions
will follow this system Thursday as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

Southwesterly flow aloft will develop by Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next potent upper level storm system approaching from the
western states. Much above normal temperatures are expected as
another lee surface low/dry line develops in this flow. Thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening along and east of
the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin as the upper system
tracks to Arizona by evening. Behind the dryline breezy to windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Saturday.

Windy, Cooler and dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday
behind the dryline and cold front with high winds possible again
in the Guadalupe Mountains. Cool with below normal temperatures
and fair conditions may continue next Tuesday and Wednesday
with upper level cyclonic flow progged to be over the forecast
area.

FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline will sharpen up over the area this afternoon as
southwesterly winds increase ahead of an upper level storm system
moving over New Mexico.  Temperatures will warm above normal to the
west of the dryline with afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent
along and west of an Andrews to Big Bend line.  Since 20 foot winds
will increase to 20 to 25 mph sustained across the Guadalupe
Mountains and over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, and
fire danger will be very high, a Red Flag warning will continue in
effect in these areas from 11 am until 9 pm MDT.  The highest winds
are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is
in effect from noon until midnight MDT.  Recovery will mainly be
poor to fair tonight.

A cold front will move south over the area Thursday.  20 foot winds
behind the front will rise to 15 to 20 mph over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin Thursday morning, but should be 10 to
15 mph at best during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be
closer to normal, but most locations will see minimum afternoon RH/s
of 10 to 15 percent.  After poor to fair recovery west of the Pecos
River Thursday night, and good to the east, another upper storm
system will begin to approach the region.  Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains Friday
afternoon, if not over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.
However, much more widespread windy conditions will occur over all
of southeast New Mexico and West Texas Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be well above normal Saturday, but not quite as
warm Sunday.  Regardless, it appears low RH/s will combine with high
to very high fire danger to create widespread critical fire weather
both days.


&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast
     Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING until Midnight MDT tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING until 9 PM MDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMAF 231107
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
607 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail today at all southeast New Mexico and
West Texas TAF sites.  A 50kt low level jet over the Permian Basin
will move off to the northeast by around 23/14Z, but gusty southerly
surface winds will persist through the morning due to a fairly tight
surface pressure gradient.  Low level winds will veer to the
southwest with a dryline pushing east across the region.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline this
afternoon, but think these will stay mainly to the east of KFST and
KMAF.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A Large upper level trough across the western states will slowly
move eastward from the Great Basin today to the high plains by
Thursday morning. As this occurs the associated surface
trough/low across the western high plains will shift eastward
today toward the eastern Permian Basin by this evening and to
central Texas by Thursday morning. Increasing low level convergence
and upper level forcing should encourage thunderstorm development
along the stalling dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon. More thunderstorm development
will be possible tonight in these areas as the dryline retreats
toward the eastern Permian Basin as the upper level trough
approaches. Some storms could be severe given cape values of 1000
to 2000 j/kg and 0 to 6 kilometer shear of 30 knots. High winds
are also likely in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and this
evening as the system approaches. A high wind warning has been
issued for that area.

Cooler (but still above normal) temperatures and fair conditions
will follow this system Thursday as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

Southwesterly flow aloft will develop by Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next potent upper level storm system approaching from the
western states. Much above normal temperatures are expected as
another lee surface low/dry line develops in this flow. Thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening along and east of
the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin as the upper system
tracks to Arizona by evening. Behind the dryline breezy to windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Saturday.

Windy, Cooler and dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday
behind the dryline and cold front with high winds possible again
in the Guadalupe Mountains. Cool with below normal temperatures
and fair conditions may continue next Tuesday and Wednesday
with upper level cyclonic flow progged to be over the forecast
area.

FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline will sharpen up over the area this afternoon as
southwesterly winds increase ahead of an upper level storm system
moving over New Mexico.  Temperatures will warm above normal to the
west of the dryline with afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent
along and west of an Andrews to Big Bend line.  Since 20 foot winds
will increase to 20 to 25 mph sustained across the Guadalupe
Mountains and over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, and
fire danger will be very high, a Red Flag warning will continue in
effect in these areas from 11 am until 9 pm MDT.  The highest winds
are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is
in effect from noon until midnight MDT.  Recovery will mainly be
poor to fair tonight.

A cold front will move south over the area Thursday.  20 foot winds
behind the front will rise to 15 to 20 mph over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin Thursday morning, but should be 10 to
15 mph at best during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be
closer to normal, but most locations will see minimum afternoon RH/s
of 10 to 15 percent.  After poor to fair recovery west of the Pecos
River Thursday night, and good to the east, another upper storm
system will begin to approach the region.  Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains Friday
afternoon, if not over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.
However, much more widespread windy conditions will occur over all
of southeast New Mexico and West Texas Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be well above normal Saturday, but not quite as
warm Sunday.  Regardless, it appears low RH/s will combine with high
to very high fire danger to create widespread critical fire weather
both days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  57  82  57  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  57  83  55  /  20  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  55  84  49  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  96  63  93  63  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  59  87  61  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  55  78  55  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   85  54  80  53  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  46  78  44  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  59  84  56  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  89  60  85  59  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    89  57  87  59  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight MDT
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight MDT
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/12





000
FXUS64 KMAF 230929
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
429 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A Large upper level trough across the western states will slowly
move eastward from the Great Basin today to the high plains by
Thursday morning. As this occurs the associated surface
trough/low across the western high plains will shift eastward
today toward the eastern Permian Basin by this evening and to
central Texas by Thursday morning. Increasing low level convergence
and upper level forcing should encourage thunderstorm development
along the stalling dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon. More thunderstorm development
will be possible tonight in these areas as the dryline retreats
toward the eastern Permian Basin as the upper level trough
approaches. Some storms could be severe given cape values of 1000
to 2000 j/kg and 0 to 6 kilometer shear of 30 knots. High winds
are also likely in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and this
evening as the system approaches. A high wind warning has been
issued for that area.

Cooler (but still above normal) temperatures and fair conditions
will follow this system Thursday as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

Southwesterly flow aloft will develop by Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next potent upper level storm system approaching from the
western states. Much above normal temperatures are expected as
another lee surface low/dry line develops in this flow. Thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening along and east of
the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin as the upper system
tracks to Arizona by evening. Behind the dryline breezy to windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Saturday.

Windy, Cooler and dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday
behind the dryline and cold front with high winds possible again
in the Guadalupe Mountains. Cool with below normal temperatures
and fair conditions may continue next Tuesday and Wednesday
with upper level cyclonic flow progged to be over the forecast
area.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline will sharpen up over the area this afternoon as
southwesterly winds increase ahead of an upper level storm system
moving over New Mexico.  Temperatures will warm above normal to the
west of the dryline with afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent
along and west of an Andrews to Big Bend line.  Since 20 foot winds
will increase to 20 to 25 mph sustained across the Guadalupe
Mountains and over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, and
fire danger will be very high, a Red Flag warning will continue in
effect in these areas from 11 am until 9 pm MDT.  The highest winds
are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is
in effect from noon until midnight MDT.  Recovery will mainly be
poor to fair tonight.

A cold front will move south over the area Thursday.  20 foot winds
behind the front will rise to 15 to 20 mph over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin Thursday morning, but should be 10 to
15 mph at best during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be
closer to normal, but most locations will see minimum afternoon RH/s
of 10 to 15 percent.  After poor to fair recovery west of the Pecos
River Thursday night, and good to the east, another upper storm
system will begin to approach the region.  Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains Friday
afternoon, if not over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.
However, much more widespread windy conditions will occur over all
of southeast New Mexico and West Texas Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be well above normal Saturday, but not quite as
warm Sunday.  Regardless, it appears low RH/s will combine with high
to very high fire danger to create widespread critical fire weather
both days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  57  82  57  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  57  83  55  /  20  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  55  84  49  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  96  63  93  63  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  59  87  61  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  55  78  55  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   85  54  80  53  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  46  78  44  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  59  84  56  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  89  60  85  59  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    89  57  87  59  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight MDT
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight MDT
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/12







000
FXUS64 KMAF 230929
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
429 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A Large upper level trough across the western states will slowly
move eastward from the Great Basin today to the high plains by
Thursday morning. As this occurs the associated surface
trough/low across the western high plains will shift eastward
today toward the eastern Permian Basin by this evening and to
central Texas by Thursday morning. Increasing low level convergence
and upper level forcing should encourage thunderstorm development
along the stalling dryline in the eastern Permian Basin and lower
Trans Pecos late this afternoon. More thunderstorm development
will be possible tonight in these areas as the dryline retreats
toward the eastern Permian Basin as the upper level trough
approaches. Some storms could be severe given cape values of 1000
to 2000 j/kg and 0 to 6 kilometer shear of 30 knots. High winds
are also likely in the Guadalupe Mountains this afternoon and this
evening as the system approaches. A high wind warning has been
issued for that area.

Cooler (but still above normal) temperatures and fair conditions
will follow this system Thursday as surface high pressure builds
into the region.

Southwesterly flow aloft will develop by Friday and Saturday ahead
of the next potent upper level storm system approaching from the
western states. Much above normal temperatures are expected as
another lee surface low/dry line develops in this flow. Thunderstorms
will be possible Saturday afternoon and evening along and east of
the dryline in the eastern Permian Basin as the upper system
tracks to Arizona by evening. Behind the dryline breezy to windy
conditions will develop with high winds possible in the Guadalupe
Mountains Saturday.

Windy, Cooler and dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday
behind the dryline and cold front with high winds possible again
in the Guadalupe Mountains. Cool with below normal temperatures
and fair conditions may continue next Tuesday and Wednesday
with upper level cyclonic flow progged to be over the forecast
area.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline will sharpen up over the area this afternoon as
southwesterly winds increase ahead of an upper level storm system
moving over New Mexico.  Temperatures will warm above normal to the
west of the dryline with afternoon RH/s dropping to 5 to 10 percent
along and west of an Andrews to Big Bend line.  Since 20 foot winds
will increase to 20 to 25 mph sustained across the Guadalupe
Mountains and over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains, and
fire danger will be very high, a Red Flag warning will continue in
effect in these areas from 11 am until 9 pm MDT.  The highest winds
are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains where a High Wind Warning is
in effect from noon until midnight MDT.  Recovery will mainly be
poor to fair tonight.

A cold front will move south over the area Thursday.  20 foot winds
behind the front will rise to 15 to 20 mph over southeast New Mexico
and the northern Permian Basin Thursday morning, but should be 10 to
15 mph at best during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be
closer to normal, but most locations will see minimum afternoon RH/s
of 10 to 15 percent.  After poor to fair recovery west of the Pecos
River Thursday night, and good to the east, another upper storm
system will begin to approach the region.  Near critical to critical
fire weather conditions will occur in the Guadalupe Mountains Friday
afternoon, if not over portions of the southeast New Mexico Plains.
However, much more widespread windy conditions will occur over all
of southeast New Mexico and West Texas Saturday and Sunday.
Temperatures will be well above normal Saturday, but not quite as
warm Sunday.  Regardless, it appears low RH/s will combine with high
to very high fire danger to create widespread critical fire weather
both days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 87  57  82  57  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              92  57  83  55  /  20  20   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                88  55  84  49  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  96  63  93  63  /  20  20   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           91  59  87  61  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          80  55  78  55  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   85  54  80  53  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   85  46  78  44  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    91  59  84  56  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  89  60  85  59  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    89  57  87  59  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight MDT
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of
     Eddy County.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln
     NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...HIGH WIND WARNING from 1 PM this afternoon to Midnight MDT
     tonight FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.

     RED FLAG WARNING from Noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

67/12






000
FXUS64 KMAF 230524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at all
southeast New Mexico and West Texas TAF sites.  A 45kt low level jet
has develop over the Permian Basin and will affect the area until
23/14Z or thereabouts before moving northeast of the region.
Surface winds will stay gusty from the south/southeast over the
Permian Basin as a result, but will include a low level wind shear
group at KMAF from 23/10z until 23/14Z when surface winds decouple.
MVFR ceilings will develop to the east of the area and attempt to
move into the Permian Basin.  Since the probability is low will not
include these lower ceilings at KMAF at this time, but will monitor.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline this
afternoon, but think these will stay mainly to the east of KFST and
KMAF.  Will also monitor for any changes to this assessment.  67

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 230524
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1224 AM CDT Wed Apr 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions are expected during the next 24 hours at all
southeast New Mexico and West Texas TAF sites.  A 45kt low level jet
has develop over the Permian Basin and will affect the area until
23/14Z or thereabouts before moving northeast of the region.
Surface winds will stay gusty from the south/southeast over the
Permian Basin as a result, but will include a low level wind shear
group at KMAF from 23/10z until 23/14Z when surface winds decouple.
MVFR ceilings will develop to the east of the area and attempt to
move into the Permian Basin.  Since the probability is low will not
include these lower ceilings at KMAF at this time, but will monitor.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a dryline this
afternoon, but think these will stay mainly to the east of KFST and
KMAF.  Will also monitor for any changes to this assessment.  67

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMAF 222218
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
518 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Sfc flow will veer
overnight to SW and gusty by Wednesday afternoon in response to
leeside troughing north. Lastest NAM forecast soundings suggest CU
development Wednesday will be a struggle, and only expected late
at KMAF and KFST, w/bases 7-9 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Once again seeing convection developing in the mountains this
afternoon along a theta-e ridge axis that extends northwestward
from the Rio Grande. Not a lot of instability so should see this
activity end once we lose heating this evening. An upper level
trough will move into the Central Plains tomorrow, with increasing
westerly flow spreading dry air eastward and sharpening a dryline
across the central Permian Basin. Thunderstorms will fire along
and east of this dryline which will be roughly located a Lamesa to
Midland to Crane line. The greatest coverage will be in the
northeastern CWA though isolated storms will be possible all the
way to the Rio Grande. Shear and instability will be great enough
for any storms to become severe with the main threat being large
hail and strong winds.

The dryline will move eastward tomorrow night and a weak cold
front will move into the area spreading very dry across the
remainder of the CWA and ending rain chances on Friday. The front
will not make much progress south allowing for a return of gulf
moisture and another dryline will develop Saturday. Models are
also showing another upper trough digging into the four corners
region activating the dryline with another round of convection.
Unfortunately this dryline will be located in the eastern Permian
Basin with only a few locations like Big Spring and Snyder having
a decent chance of seeing rainfall. Perhaps later model runs will
pull this dryline further west but right now that looks doubtful.
This upper level trough will slow and deepen as it moves into the
northern plains, with increasing northwesterly flow allowing for
cooler air to filter south and bring more seasonal temps by early
next week.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline is still on track to develop across the central Permian
Basin tomorrow with very dry air located to the west. An upper
level trough will bring increasing westerly winds and critical
fire weather conditions are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains
and southeast New Mexico; thus have upgraded the watch to a Red
Flag Warning. The midnight shift will have to make make one last
determination as to whether the warning will need to be expanded
further east and south, but at this time winds are too marginal to
include in the warning. Winds will subside tomorrow night and a
weak cold front will bring lower winds on Thursday.

Westerly winds will increase once again Friday into the weekend
with more critical fire weather conditions expected for an even
larger portion of the area. This is too far out in the forecast to
issue a watch, but local fire personnel should be aware that the
weekend will not be favorable for prescribed burns.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

27







000
FXUS64 KMAF 222218
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
518 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Sfc flow will veer
overnight to SW and gusty by Wednesday afternoon in response to
leeside troughing north. Lastest NAM forecast soundings suggest CU
development Wednesday will be a struggle, and only expected late
at KMAF and KFST, w/bases 7-9 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Once again seeing convection developing in the mountains this
afternoon along a theta-e ridge axis that extends northwestward
from the Rio Grande. Not a lot of instability so should see this
activity end once we lose heating this evening. An upper level
trough will move into the Central Plains tomorrow, with increasing
westerly flow spreading dry air eastward and sharpening a dryline
across the central Permian Basin. Thunderstorms will fire along
and east of this dryline which will be roughly located a Lamesa to
Midland to Crane line. The greatest coverage will be in the
northeastern CWA though isolated storms will be possible all the
way to the Rio Grande. Shear and instability will be great enough
for any storms to become severe with the main threat being large
hail and strong winds.

The dryline will move eastward tomorrow night and a weak cold
front will move into the area spreading very dry across the
remainder of the CWA and ending rain chances on Friday. The front
will not make much progress south allowing for a return of gulf
moisture and another dryline will develop Saturday. Models are
also showing another upper trough digging into the four corners
region activating the dryline with another round of convection.
Unfortunately this dryline will be located in the eastern Permian
Basin with only a few locations like Big Spring and Snyder having
a decent chance of seeing rainfall. Perhaps later model runs will
pull this dryline further west but right now that looks doubtful.
This upper level trough will slow and deepen as it moves into the
northern plains, with increasing northwesterly flow allowing for
cooler air to filter south and bring more seasonal temps by early
next week.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline is still on track to develop across the central Permian
Basin tomorrow with very dry air located to the west. An upper
level trough will bring increasing westerly winds and critical
fire weather conditions are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains
and southeast New Mexico; thus have upgraded the watch to a Red
Flag Warning. The midnight shift will have to make make one last
determination as to whether the warning will need to be expanded
further east and south, but at this time winds are too marginal to
include in the warning. Winds will subside tomorrow night and a
weak cold front will bring lower winds on Thursday.

Westerly winds will increase once again Friday into the weekend
with more critical fire weather conditions expected for an even
larger portion of the area. This is too far out in the forecast to
issue a watch, but local fire personnel should be aware that the
weekend will not be favorable for prescribed burns.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

27






000
FXUS64 KMAF 221934
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
234 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Once again seeing convection developing in the mountains this
afternoon along a theta-e ridge axis that extends northwestward
from the Rio Grande. Not a lot of instability so should see this
activity end once we lose heating this evening. An upper level
trough will move into the Central Plains tomorrow, with increasing
westerly flow spreading dry air eastward and sharpening a dryline
across the central Permian Basin. Thunderstorms will fire along
and east of this dryline which will be roughly located a Lamesa to
Midland to Crane line. The greatest coverage will be in the
northeastern CWA though isolated storms will be possible all the
way to the Rio Grande. Shear and instability will be great enough
for any storms to become severe with the main threat being large
hail and strong winds.

The dryline will move eastward tomorrow night and a weak cold
front will move into the area spreading very dry across the
remainder of the CWA and ending rain chances on Friday. The front
will not make much progress south allowing for a return of gulf
moisture and another dryline will develop Saturday. Models are
also showing another upper trough digging into the four corners
region activating the dryline with another round of convection.
Unfortunately this dryline will be located in the eastern Permian
Basin with only a few locations like Big Spring and Snyder having
a decent chance of seeing rainfall. Perhaps later model runs will
pull this dryline further west but right now that looks doubtful.
This upper level trough will slow and deepen as it moves into the
northern plains, with increasing northwesterly flow allowing for
cooler air to filter south and bring more seasonal temps by early
next week.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline is still on track to develop across the central Permian
Basin tomorrow with very dry air located to the west. An upper
level trough will bring increasing westerly winds and critical
fire weather conditions are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains
and southeast New Mexico; thus have upgraded the watch to a Red
Flag Warning. The midnight shift will have to make make one last
determination as to whether the warning will need to be expanded
further east and south, but at this time winds are too marginal to
include in the warning. Winds will subside tomorrow night and a
weak cold front will bring lower winds on Thursday.

Westerly winds will increase once again Friday into the weekend
with more critical fire weather conditions expected for an even
larger portion of the area. This is too far out in the forecast to
issue a watch, but local fire personnel should be aware that the
weekend will not be favorable for prescribed burns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  88  56  81  /   0  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              62  89  60  82  /   0  30  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                60  89  55  82  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  94  62  91  /   0  20  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  93  59  85  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  78  51  76  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  86  53  79  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   54  83  50  79  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  89  58  83  /   0  20  20   0
ODESSA TX                  64  89  57  83  /   0  20  20   0
WINK TX                    65  93  56  85  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29/10






000
FXUS64 KMAF 221934
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
234 PM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Once again seeing convection developing in the mountains this
afternoon along a theta-e ridge axis that extends northwestward
from the Rio Grande. Not a lot of instability so should see this
activity end once we lose heating this evening. An upper level
trough will move into the Central Plains tomorrow, with increasing
westerly flow spreading dry air eastward and sharpening a dryline
across the central Permian Basin. Thunderstorms will fire along
and east of this dryline which will be roughly located a Lamesa to
Midland to Crane line. The greatest coverage will be in the
northeastern CWA though isolated storms will be possible all the
way to the Rio Grande. Shear and instability will be great enough
for any storms to become severe with the main threat being large
hail and strong winds.

The dryline will move eastward tomorrow night and a weak cold
front will move into the area spreading very dry across the
remainder of the CWA and ending rain chances on Friday. The front
will not make much progress south allowing for a return of gulf
moisture and another dryline will develop Saturday. Models are
also showing another upper trough digging into the four corners
region activating the dryline with another round of convection.
Unfortunately this dryline will be located in the eastern Permian
Basin with only a few locations like Big Spring and Snyder having
a decent chance of seeing rainfall. Perhaps later model runs will
pull this dryline further west but right now that looks doubtful.
This upper level trough will slow and deepen as it moves into the
northern plains, with increasing northwesterly flow allowing for
cooler air to filter south and bring more seasonal temps by early
next week.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A dryline is still on track to develop across the central Permian
Basin tomorrow with very dry air located to the west. An upper
level trough will bring increasing westerly winds and critical
fire weather conditions are expected in the Guadalupe Mountains
and southeast New Mexico; thus have upgraded the watch to a Red
Flag Warning. The midnight shift will have to make make one last
determination as to whether the warning will need to be expanded
further east and south, but at this time winds are too marginal to
include in the warning. Winds will subside tomorrow night and a
weak cold front will bring lower winds on Thursday.

Westerly winds will increase once again Friday into the weekend
with more critical fire weather conditions expected for an even
larger portion of the area. This is too far out in the forecast to
issue a watch, but local fire personnel should be aware that the
weekend will not be favorable for prescribed burns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  88  56  81  /   0  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              62  89  60  82  /   0  30  30   0
CARLSBAD NM                60  89  55  82  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  65  94  62  91  /   0  20  20   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  93  59  85  /  10  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  78  51  76  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   59  86  53  79  /  10  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   54  83  50  79  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    63  89  58  83  /   0  20  20   0
ODESSA TX                  64  89  57  83  /   0  20  20   0
WINK TX                    65  93  56  85  /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...
     Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29/10







000
FXUS64 KMAF 221653
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hrs. Moderate
southeast flow will increase overnight ahead of a strong storm
system to our west.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29







000
FXUS64 KMAF 221653
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1153 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF issuance
VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hrs. Moderate
southeast flow will increase overnight ahead of a strong storm
system to our west.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

29






000
FXUS64 KMAF 221056
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
556 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours. A developing
surface trough across extreme west Texas is expected to
produce isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight
across areas mainly west of the Pecos River. Expected
areal coverage of storms is too low to mention at any
of the terminals. Southeast winds will increase to 10
to 20 mph and gusty by mid morning and continue through
this evening.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.

FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  63  89  57  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              87  66  92  63  /   0   0  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  56  90  54  /  20  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  66  94  66  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  66  94  61  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  58  81  55  /  20  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  57  87  51  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   84  49  85  49  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  65  91  61  /  10   0  20  20
ODESSA TX                  85  67  90  62  /  10   0  20  20
WINK TX                    89  66  93  56  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/67






000
FXUS64 KMAF 220911
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  63  89  57  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              87  66  92  63  /   0   0  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  56  90  54  /  20  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  66  94  66  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  66  94  61  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  58  81  55  /  20  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  57  87  51  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   84  49  85  49  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  65  91  61  /  10   0  20  20
ODESSA TX                  85  67  90  62  /  10   0  20  20
WINK TX                    89  66  93  56  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/67





000
FXUS64 KMAF 220911
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
411 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A weak frontal boundary has pushed to the higher terrain of
southwest Texas early this morning, while a pair of outflow
boundaries from convection over central Texas have pushed west and
northwest over the area early this morning.  Low level moisture is
on the increase as a result.  Meanwhile aloft, an ua ridge is
traversing the region, and will continue eastward and flatten
somewhat Wednesday as an ua trough off the West Coast expands over
the western Conus.  Low level moisture may be great enough for
isolated convection to develop along and ahead of a developing
surface trough, and the higher terrain, at max heating this
afternoon.  Do not expect much organized convection since
instability will be rather pedestrian, topping out perhaps
around 500 J/Kg, and shear will mainly be only 25kt.  However,
very steep mid level lapse rates around 8.5C and 0 to 6 km bulk
shear near 30kt in a few areas with better localized heating could
yield a stronger storm or two, especially considering a fairly dry
subcloud layer.  Any storms should not last more than an hour or so
after sundown.  As height falls increase ahead of the broadening
western Conus ua trough tonight, low level moisture will push
westward into the higher terrain by Wednesday morning.  Increasing
southwesterly flow aloft will push the moisture eastward Wednesday
with a dryline sharpening up over the Permian Basin Wednesday
afternoon.  Models have latched onto a vorticity maximum at the base
of the ua trough that will translate eastward over the area
Wednesday.  Think the dryline will remain over the eastern fringe of
the forecast area Wednesday afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible due to the mentioned vorticity maximum and intense surface
heating overcoming any convective inhibition.  A low level jet will
also develop 24/00Z-24/03Z and increase low level convergence along
the dryline.  Steep lapse rates, bulk shear around 45kt and plenty
of instability will result in some storms producing large hail and
damaging winds, so will mention this in the forecast products.  To
the west of the dryline, critical fire weather conditions will be
possible over the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico
Plains.  Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for more info.

Temperatures will be well above normal today and Wednesday.  For
Thursday through Saturday, we`ll mainly have hot, dry and windy
conditions with continued fire weather concerns.  Rain chances do
not look very good, with isolated showers and storms possible over
the Lower Trans Pecos Friday, and another dryline induced round of
convection Saturday as a large upper trough ejects northeastward
over the western Conus, which will result in the dryline taking
shape again over the region.  This same ua trough will cutoff, then
meander slowly east over the central U.S. Plains through early next
week.  We`ll still have dry and windy conditions Sunday and Monday,
but it will not be quite as hot.  Then, a strong cold front is
expected to move south across the area Monday night and Tuesday with
much cooler temperatures behind it.  Do not expect a freeze this
time, but high temperatures could end up 5 to 10 degrees below
normal, if not lower.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather concerns will increase beginning Wednesday afternoon and
continue through much of the end of the week. The first day of concern
will be Wednesday as a large upper level storm system moves across the
northern states. A dryline will develop across the Permian Basin
in response with breezy and dry west to southwesterly winds possible
behind the dryline across the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New
Mexico Plains. Will continue the fire weather watch for these areas
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

After a lull Thursday fire weather concerns will increase again
by Friday through next weekend. The next in a series of potent
upper level storm systems is forecast to emerge onto the west
coast Friday and move to the high plains by next Sunday. Ahead
of this system an intense lee surface low and dryline is expected
to develop by Friday and continue through the weekend. As the
upper level system moves east toward the forecast area the dryline
will probably move progressively a little further eastward each day.
The better chance of critical fire weather conditions will be across
the southeast New Mexico Plains and Guadalupe Mountains Friday and
spread eastward to cover much of the forecast area Saturday and
Sunday afternoon and evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  63  89  57  /   0   0  20  20
BIG SPRING TX              87  66  92  63  /   0   0  30  30
CARLSBAD NM                86  56  90  54  /  20  20   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  93  66  94  66  /  10  10  20  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           87  66  94  61  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  58  81  55  /  20  20   0   0
HOBBS NM                   81  57  87  51  /  10  10  10  10
MARFA TX                   84  49  85  49  /  20  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    86  65  91  61  /  10   0  20  20
ODESSA TX                  85  67  90  62  /  10   0  20  20
WINK TX                    89  66  93  56  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

12/67






000
FXUS64 KMAF 220501
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1201 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are expected the next 24
hours. East winds of 5 to 15 mph overnight will become southeast
at 10 to 20 mph and gutsy by mid Tuesday morning and continue
through Tuesday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
A weak front will make for mostly ne winds less than 10kts overnight
and satellite indicates clouds will decrease this evening. A more
definitive se wind will develop Tue AM with 15G25kts expected to
be fairly widespread by mid/late morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite is showing convection in the higher elevations
from the Guadalupe Mountains, down into the Big Bend this
afternoon. A weak cold front has brought lower dewpoints which are
only in the 30s in these areas, thus instability is limited and do
not expect near the coverage seen yesterday. Temperatures will be
warmer tomorrow, and models show southeasterly flow pushing a mid
level theta-e ridge west of the Pecos River which may be enough
for more isolated mountain convection.

An upper level trough moves into the Central Plains Wednesday
pushing very dry air into west Texas and sharpening a dryline in
the central CWA. There will be plenty of shear and instability
along and east of the dryline for severe thunderstorm development;
however, a mid level cap will limit the highest severe potential
to the northeastern Permian Basin and areas further north where
lift associated with the upper trough will be greater. It should
be noted though that if any storms manage to develop further south
then they could go severe as well given similar instability and
shear. The trough pushes a weak front through Thursday, but
westerly flow will bring well above normal temperatures Friday and
Saturday.

Models disagree on the strength and amplitude of another upper
trough moving into the four corners region Saturday. The GFS is
deeper than the ECMWF, and develops more convection along a
dryline in west Texas. Will not introduce PoPs yet since this is
at the end of the forecast period, but it is interesting that the
GFS ensembles agree on the deeper solution so hopefully we can
look for more rain chances.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
An upper trough moving into the Central Plains will bring
increasing westerly flow Wednesday, pushing very dry air into the
central Permian Basin. A dryline will sharpen and become
stationary denoting a boundary from the dry air and more moist air
to the east. It is likely that critical fire weather conditions
will develop in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico,
and this could spread further east into the western Permian Basin
and upper Trans Pecos in Texas. For now though will issue a Fire
Weather Watch for southeastern New Mexico, where confidence in
meeting criteria is greatest, and will allow other shifts to
extend the watch further east and south if necessary. Winds will
diminish Thursday as the trough passes east easing the fire
weather threat, but critical conditions may occur again Thursday
in the Guadalupe Mountains where winds will be strongest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  83  63  89  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              57  84  62  88  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                57  85  62  88  /  10  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  62  87  65  95  /  20  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  65  89  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  78  58  77  /  10  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   54  82  61  86  /   0  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   51  80  55  83  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  85  63  88  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  59  85  64  88  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    61  88  65  91  /  10  10  10  10

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/10







000
FXUS64 KMAF 220501
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1201 AM CDT Tue Apr 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies are expected the next 24
hours. East winds of 5 to 15 mph overnight will become southeast
at 10 to 20 mph and gutsy by mid Tuesday morning and continue
through Tuesday afternoon.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
A weak front will make for mostly ne winds less than 10kts overnight
and satellite indicates clouds will decrease this evening. A more
definitive se wind will develop Tue AM with 15G25kts expected to
be fairly widespread by mid/late morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite is showing convection in the higher elevations
from the Guadalupe Mountains, down into the Big Bend this
afternoon. A weak cold front has brought lower dewpoints which are
only in the 30s in these areas, thus instability is limited and do
not expect near the coverage seen yesterday. Temperatures will be
warmer tomorrow, and models show southeasterly flow pushing a mid
level theta-e ridge west of the Pecos River which may be enough
for more isolated mountain convection.

An upper level trough moves into the Central Plains Wednesday
pushing very dry air into west Texas and sharpening a dryline in
the central CWA. There will be plenty of shear and instability
along and east of the dryline for severe thunderstorm development;
however, a mid level cap will limit the highest severe potential
to the northeastern Permian Basin and areas further north where
lift associated with the upper trough will be greater. It should
be noted though that if any storms manage to develop further south
then they could go severe as well given similar instability and
shear. The trough pushes a weak front through Thursday, but
westerly flow will bring well above normal temperatures Friday and
Saturday.

Models disagree on the strength and amplitude of another upper
trough moving into the four corners region Saturday. The GFS is
deeper than the ECMWF, and develops more convection along a
dryline in west Texas. Will not introduce PoPs yet since this is
at the end of the forecast period, but it is interesting that the
GFS ensembles agree on the deeper solution so hopefully we can
look for more rain chances.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
An upper trough moving into the Central Plains will bring
increasing westerly flow Wednesday, pushing very dry air into the
central Permian Basin. A dryline will sharpen and become
stationary denoting a boundary from the dry air and more moist air
to the east. It is likely that critical fire weather conditions
will develop in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico,
and this could spread further east into the western Permian Basin
and upper Trans Pecos in Texas. For now though will issue a Fire
Weather Watch for southeastern New Mexico, where confidence in
meeting criteria is greatest, and will allow other shifts to
extend the watch further east and south if necessary. Winds will
diminish Thursday as the trough passes east easing the fire
weather threat, but critical conditions may occur again Thursday
in the Guadalupe Mountains where winds will be strongest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  83  63  89  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              57  84  62  88  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                57  85  62  88  /  10  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  62  87  65  95  /  20  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  65  89  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  78  58  77  /  10  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   54  82  61  86  /   0  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   51  80  55  83  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  85  63  88  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  59  85  64  88  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    61  88  65  91  /  10  10  10  10

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/10






000
FXUS64 KMAF 212329
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak front will make for mostly ne winds less than 10kts overnight
and satellite indicates clouds will decrease this evening. A more
definitive se wind will develop Tue AM with 15G25kts expected to
be fairly widespread by mid/late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite is showing convection in the higher elevations
from the Guadalupe Mountains, down into the Big Bend this
afternoon. A weak cold front has brought lower dewpoints which are
only in the 30s in these areas, thus instability is limited and do
not expect near the coverage seen yesterday. Temperatures will be
warmer tomorrow, and models show southeasterly flow pushing a mid
level theta-e ridge west of the Pecos River which may be enough
for more isolated mountain convection.

An upper level trough moves into the Central Plains Wednesday
pushing very dry air into west Texas and sharpening a dryline in
the central CWA. There will be plenty of shear and instability
along and east of the dryline for severe thunderstorm development;
however, a mid level cap will limit the highest severe potential
to the northeastern Permian Basin and areas further north where
lift associated with the upper trough will be greater. It should
be noted though that if any storms manage to develop further south
then they could go severe as well given similar instability and
shear. The trough pushes a weak front through Thursday, but
westerly flow will bring well above normal temperatures Friday and
Saturday.

Models disagree on the strength and amplitude of another upper
trough moving into the four corners region Saturday. The GFS is
deeper than the ECMWF, and develops more convection along a
dryline in west Texas. Will not introduce PoPs yet since this is
at the end of the forecast period, but it is interesting that the
GFS ensembles agree on the deeper solution so hopefully we can
look for more rain chances.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
An upper trough moving into the Central Plains will bring
increasing westerly flow Wednesday, pushing very dry air into the
central Permian Basin. A dryline will sharpen and become
stationary denoting a boundary from the dry air and more moist air
to the east. It is likely that critical fire weather conditions
will develop in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico,
and this could spread further east into the western Permian Basin
and upper Trans Pecos in Texas. For now though will issue a Fire
Weather Watch for southeastern New Mexico, where confidence in
meeting criteria is greatest, and will allow other shifts to
extend the watch further east and south if necessary. Winds will
diminish Thursday as the trough passes east easing the fire
weather threat, but critical conditions may occur again Thursday
in the Guadalupe Mountains where winds will be strongest.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMAF 212329
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
629 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
A weak front will make for mostly ne winds less than 10kts overnight
and satellite indicates clouds will decrease this evening. A more
definitive se wind will develop Tue AM with 15G25kts expected to
be fairly widespread by mid/late morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite is showing convection in the higher elevations
from the Guadalupe Mountains, down into the Big Bend this
afternoon. A weak cold front has brought lower dewpoints which are
only in the 30s in these areas, thus instability is limited and do
not expect near the coverage seen yesterday. Temperatures will be
warmer tomorrow, and models show southeasterly flow pushing a mid
level theta-e ridge west of the Pecos River which may be enough
for more isolated mountain convection.

An upper level trough moves into the Central Plains Wednesday
pushing very dry air into west Texas and sharpening a dryline in
the central CWA. There will be plenty of shear and instability
along and east of the dryline for severe thunderstorm development;
however, a mid level cap will limit the highest severe potential
to the northeastern Permian Basin and areas further north where
lift associated with the upper trough will be greater. It should
be noted though that if any storms manage to develop further south
then they could go severe as well given similar instability and
shear. The trough pushes a weak front through Thursday, but
westerly flow will bring well above normal temperatures Friday and
Saturday.

Models disagree on the strength and amplitude of another upper
trough moving into the four corners region Saturday. The GFS is
deeper than the ECMWF, and develops more convection along a
dryline in west Texas. Will not introduce PoPs yet since this is
at the end of the forecast period, but it is interesting that the
GFS ensembles agree on the deeper solution so hopefully we can
look for more rain chances.

Hennig

FIRE WEATHER...
An upper trough moving into the Central Plains will bring
increasing westerly flow Wednesday, pushing very dry air into the
central Permian Basin. A dryline will sharpen and become
stationary denoting a boundary from the dry air and more moist air
to the east. It is likely that critical fire weather conditions
will develop in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico,
and this could spread further east into the western Permian Basin
and upper Trans Pecos in Texas. For now though will issue a Fire
Weather Watch for southeastern New Mexico, where confidence in
meeting criteria is greatest, and will allow other shifts to
extend the watch further east and south if necessary. Winds will
diminish Thursday as the trough passes east easing the fire
weather threat, but critical conditions may occur again Thursday
in the Guadalupe Mountains where winds will be strongest.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMAF 211946
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
246 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite is showing convection in the higher elevations
from the Guadalupe Mountains, down into the Big Bend this
afternoon. A weak cold front has brought lower dewpoints which are
only in the 30s in these areas, thus instability is limited and do
not expect near the coverage seen yesterday. Temperatures will be
warmer tomorrow, and models show southeasterly flow pushing a mid
level theta-e ridge west of the Pecos River which may be enough
for more isolated mountain convection.

An upper level trough moves into the Central Plains Wednesday
pushing very dry air into west Texas and sharpening a dryline in
the central CWA. There will be plenty of shear and instability
along and east of the dryline for severe thunderstorm development;
however, a mid level cap will limit the highest severe potential
to the northeastern Permian Basin and areas further north where
lift associated with the upper trough will be greater. It should
be noted though that if any storms manage to develop further south
then they could go severe as well given similar instability and
shear. The trough pushes a weak front through Thursday, but
westerly flow will bring well above normal temperatures Friday and
Saturday.

Models disagree on the strength and amplitude of another upper
trough moving into the four corners region Saturday. The GFS is
deeper than the ECMWF, and develops more convection along a
dryline in west Texas. Will not introduce PoPs yet since this is
at the end of the forecast period, but it is interesting that the
GFS ensembles agree on the deeper solution so hopefully we can
look for more rain chances.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper trough moving into the Central Plains will bring
increasing westerly flow Wednesday, pushing very dry air into the
central Permian Basin. A dryline will sharpen and become
stationary denoting a boundary from the dry air and more moist air
to the east. It is likely that critical fire weather conditions
will develop in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico,
and this could spread further east into the western Permian Basin
and upper Trans Pecos in Texas. For now though will issue a Fire
Weather Watch for southeastern New Mexico, where confidence in
meeting criteria is greatest, and will allow other shifts to
extend the watch further east and south if necessary. Winds will
diminish Thursday as the trough passes east easing the fire
weather threat, but critical conditions may occur again Thursday
in the Guadalupe Mountains where winds will be strongest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  83  63  89  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              57  84  62  88  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                57  85  62  88  /  10  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  62  87  65  95  /  20  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  65  89  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  78  58  77  /  10  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   54  82  61  86  /   0  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   51  80  55  83  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  85  63  88  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  59  85  64  88  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    61  88  65  91  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/10






000
FXUS64 KMAF 211946
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
246 PM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Visible satellite is showing convection in the higher elevations
from the Guadalupe Mountains, down into the Big Bend this
afternoon. A weak cold front has brought lower dewpoints which are
only in the 30s in these areas, thus instability is limited and do
not expect near the coverage seen yesterday. Temperatures will be
warmer tomorrow, and models show southeasterly flow pushing a mid
level theta-e ridge west of the Pecos River which may be enough
for more isolated mountain convection.

An upper level trough moves into the Central Plains Wednesday
pushing very dry air into west Texas and sharpening a dryline in
the central CWA. There will be plenty of shear and instability
along and east of the dryline for severe thunderstorm development;
however, a mid level cap will limit the highest severe potential
to the northeastern Permian Basin and areas further north where
lift associated with the upper trough will be greater. It should
be noted though that if any storms manage to develop further south
then they could go severe as well given similar instability and
shear. The trough pushes a weak front through Thursday, but
westerly flow will bring well above normal temperatures Friday and
Saturday.

Models disagree on the strength and amplitude of another upper
trough moving into the four corners region Saturday. The GFS is
deeper than the ECMWF, and develops more convection along a
dryline in west Texas. Will not introduce PoPs yet since this is
at the end of the forecast period, but it is interesting that the
GFS ensembles agree on the deeper solution so hopefully we can
look for more rain chances.

Hennig

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
An upper trough moving into the Central Plains will bring
increasing westerly flow Wednesday, pushing very dry air into the
central Permian Basin. A dryline will sharpen and become
stationary denoting a boundary from the dry air and more moist air
to the east. It is likely that critical fire weather conditions
will develop in the Guadalupe Mountains and southeast New Mexico,
and this could spread further east into the western Permian Basin
and upper Trans Pecos in Texas. For now though will issue a Fire
Weather Watch for southeastern New Mexico, where confidence in
meeting criteria is greatest, and will allow other shifts to
extend the watch further east and south if necessary. Winds will
diminish Thursday as the trough passes east easing the fire
weather threat, but critical conditions may occur again Thursday
in the Guadalupe Mountains where winds will be strongest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  83  63  89  /   0   0   0  10
BIG SPRING TX              57  84  62  88  /   0   0   0  20
CARLSBAD NM                57  85  62  88  /  10  20  10  10
DRYDEN TX                  62  87  65  95  /  20  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  86  65  89  /  10  10  10  10
GUADALUPE PASS TX          53  78  58  77  /  10  20  10  10
HOBBS NM                   54  82  61  86  /   0  10   0  10
MARFA TX                   51  80  55  83  /  20  20  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    58  85  63  88  /   0   0   0  20
ODESSA TX                  59  85  64  88  /   0   0   0  10
WINK TX                    61  88  65  91  /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains
     NP/Lincoln NF/LNZ...Southeast Plains/BLM Roswell/LNZ.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

44/10







000
FXUS64 KMAF 211607
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1107 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours. Sfc winds will shift to
the north as a weak cold front sags into the area. Winds will then
quickly veer back to se as return flow resumes. Forecast soundings
develop widespread cu fields this afternoon (6-9 kft agl) and by
the end of the forecast period (5-9 kft agl).

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT Mon Apr 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the exiting upper trough over OK, leaving West
Texas/SE NM under NW flow aloft.  At the sfc, a very diffuse dryline
extended from the Wrn Low Rolling Plains down into the Big Bend,
whereas further north, a cold front was approaching the area.
Buffer soundings put fropa at KMAF at around noon, but this should
have a negligible effect on afternoon highs.  All models develop
convection along the front east of the area later today, then
develop it westward along the front into the Lwr Trans Pecos by late
afternoon.

Tuesday, an upper-lvl ridge will build east into the region, but
quickly move on as the next trough builds into the PacNW.  As this
feature traverses the U.S.-Canadian border, flow aloft becomes SW,
and leeside troughing will induce westerly flow over the mountains,
all resulting in a weak dryline developing Wednesday afternoon.
Models differ slightly on where the dryline develops, but critical
fire wx conditions will be possible west of the dryline, and
convection along/east of the dryline.  This is too far out for a
Fire Wx Watch, so we`ve just outlooked it for
now.

Upper trough will pass thru the area Wednesday night, followed by SW
flow aloft as upper ridging develops over the Gulf Coast.  This will
result in well-abv normal temps Friday/Saturday.  Friday night,
another upper trough makes landfall on the west coast, and tilts
negatively into the upper Rockies Sunday.  This will result in
increasing westerly flow over the weekend, and more critical fire
wx.  Both the GFS and ECMWF hint at a dryline event Saturday night,
w/the GFS further west than the ECMWF.  For now, we`ll keep the
grids dry, and advertise increasing winds, especially
Sunday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities