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000
FXUS64 KMAF 250220
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
920 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery shows clear skies under an upper level ridge
centered over West Texas tonight. Sfc obs show winds have
decoupled, and w/no LLJ expected overnight, another bout of fog
seems likely. However, latest NAM suggests temps can be lowered a
bit, especially out west. We`ll do a quick update for this, and
adjust other parameters as necessary.  Updates out shortly.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Today began similar to yesterday with fog thickening this morning
and bringing visibilities down to a quarter mile or less at several
locations.  The fog dissipated around mid morning leaving clear
skies, except for a few cumulus in the Davis/Glass Mountains.  With
the quick burn off of fog, temps are rising quicker than yesterday.
Since the boundary layer will be a little drier from above normal
temperatures this afternoon, there will be a little less moisture
tomorrow morning, but still patchy fog looks possible.

The upper ridge continues to build across Mexico and West Texas.
This should result in above normal temps through the weekend.  Some
areas along the Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley may see
lower to mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.  The ridge will then start to
flatten out with the approach of a trough that will swing across the
Central US.  The associated cold front will move into the area
Tuesday and knock temps to near, or below, normal Tuesday afternoon,
with seasonal temps expected areawide Wednesday.  The lack of
moisture over the area as the front passes does not bode well for
showers.  There is a secondary shortwave that looks to pass over the
area and with some increased moisture that warrants increasing PoPs
along the Lower Trans Pecos and parts of the Davis Mountains.  Will
still leave out any mention of showers with not a lot of confidence
several days out. Beyond Thursday it looks like another ridge will
start to build across the Southwest US and move our way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  87  58  87  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              58  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                54  87  50  90  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  61  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           59  88  61  91  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          61  84  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  86  49  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   44  82  48  82  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    57  87  57  88  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  88  59  88  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    54  88  57  92  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

12/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 242326
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
626 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds are expected
for much of the TAF period. The exception will be from 10z to 15z
Saturday where a moist surface layer and light wind support TEMPO
LIFR conditions at most terminals except KFST and KCNM.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 208 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Today began similar to yesterday with fog thickening this morning
and bringing visibilities down to a quarter mile or less at several
locations.  The fog dissipated around mid morning leaving clear
skies, except for a few cumulus in the Davis/Glass Mountains.  With
the quick burn off of fog, temps are rising quicker than yesterday.
Since the boundary layer will be a little drier from above normal
temperatures this afternoon, there will be a little less moisture
tomorrow morning, but still patchy fog looks possible.

The upper ridge continues to build across Mexico and West Texas.
This should result in above normal temps through the weekend.  Some
areas along the Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley may see
lower to mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.  The ridge will then start to
flatten out with the approach of a trough that will swing across the
Central US.  The associated cold front will move into the area
Tuesday and knock temps to near, or below, normal Tuesday afternoon,
with seasonal temps expected areawide Wednesday.  The lack of
moisture over the area as the front passes does not bode well for
showers.  There is a secondary shortwave that looks to pass over the
area and with some increased moisture that warrants increasing PoPs
along the Lower Trans Pecos and parts of the Davis Mountains.  Will
still leave out any mention of showers with not a lot of confidence
several days out. Beyond Thursday it looks like another ridge will
start to build across the Southwest US and move our way.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  87  58  87  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              56  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  87  50  90  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  88  61  91  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  84  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  86  49  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   51  82  48  82  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  87  57  88  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  88  59  88  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    55  88  57  92  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/06

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241908
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
208 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Today began similar to yesterday with fog thickening this morning
and bringing visibilities down to a quarter mile or less at several
locations.  The fog dissipated around mid morning leaving clear
skies, except for a few cumulus in the Davis/Glass Mountains.  With
the quick burn off of fog, temps are rising quicker than yesterday.
Since the boundary layer will be a little drier from above normal
temperatures this afternoon, there will be a little less moisture
tomorrow morning, but still patchy fog looks possible.

The upper ridge continues to build across Mexico and West Texas.
This should result in above normal temps through the weekend.  Some
areas along the Upper Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley may see
lower to mid 90s on Sunday and Monday.  The ridge will then start to
flatten out with the approach of a trough that will swing across the
Central US.  The associated cold front will move into the area
Tuesday and knock temps to near, or below, normal Tuesday afternoon,
with seasonal temps expected areawide Wednesday.  The lack of
moisture over the area as the front passes does not bode well for
showers.  There is a secondary shortwave that looks to pass over the
area and with some increased moisture that warrants increasing PoPs
along the Lower Trans Pecos and parts of the Davis Mountains.  Will
still leave out any mention of showers with not a lot of confidence
several days out. Beyond Thursday it looks like another ridge will
start to build across the Southwest US and move our way.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 56  87  58  87  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              56  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                52  87  50  90  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  88  60  88  /   0   0   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           58  88  61  91  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  84  54  84  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   53  86  49  87  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   51  82  48  82  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  87  57  88  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  88  59  88  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    55  88  57  92  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/06

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241710
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1210 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon and tonight across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas.  However, fog could form again
late tonight.  Will not include a reduction in visibility at this
time since any fog development will occur near the end of the
forecast period.  67

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241549
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1049 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to cancel the Dense Fog Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog was dissipating rapidly across southeast New Mexico and west
Texas as of 24/1540Z.  Although the visibility was less than 1 mile
at Pecos and Snyder at this time, rapid improvement will occur by
24/16Z.  Therefore, will cancel the rest of the Dense Fog Advisory.
The forecast looks good through the rest of the afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

UPDATE...
Updated forecast for Fog Advisory.

DISCUSSION...
Visibilities beginning to fall across the area as fog thickens.
Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the Permian Basin... Trans
Pecos... and Southeast New Mexico.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Fog increasing across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin with vsbys
expected to fall to LIFR at HOB... INK... and PEQ... and IFR at
MAF. Not much stratus expected. By late morning most of the fog
should be gone with conditions improving to VFR areawide. Wind
will be southerly at 10kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and light winds have once again provided great
conditions for radiation fog to develop across parts of the area.
Given boundary layer moisture this morning is less than 24 hours
ago, widespread dense fog is not expected, though motorists and
others traveling this morning should be prepared for patchy fog that
could cause temporary visibility restrictions.

Upper ridging and high pressure will continue to build across the
region today, allowing for temperatures to rise to the middle 80s
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, with
upper 70s expected over the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupe Mountains.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with near
record high temperatures possible on Sunday, with highs Sunday
currently forecast to be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with
the exception of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and
Rio Grande Valley where low to possibly middle 90s are not out of
the question. The forecast high for Midland Sunday is 89 degrees,
one degree shy of the record of 90 set in 1950.

The aforementioned  upper level ridge will begin to flatten out
Sunday into Monday as the next Pacific trough works its way
eastward. Recent model runs have come into better agreement
regarding the trough passage early next week, as well as the
accompanying cold front which is expected to move through the area
early on Tuesday. Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of the
front, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage, though will serve
to drop temperatures into the 70s across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas for midweek. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a
secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with both models generating light
QPF over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains in southeasterly
return flow.  Thus, have maintained the low PoPs over this area,
though have still held off on mention of showers for the time being,
given how much can change between now and then.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$


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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241154
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
654 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.UPDATE...
Updated forecast for Fog Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Visibilities beginning to fall across the area as fog thickens.
Have issued a Dense Fog Advisory for the Permian Basin... Trans
Pecos... and Southeast New Mexico.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AVIATION...
Fog increasing across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin with vsbys
expected to fall to LIFR at HOB... INK... and PEQ... and IFR at
MAF. Not much stratus expected. By late morning most of the fog
should be gone with conditions improving to VFR areawide. Wind
will be southerly at 10kts or less.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and light winds have once again provided great
conditions for radiation fog to develop across parts of the area.
Given boundary layer moisture this morning is less than 24 hours
ago, widespread dense fog is not expected, though motorists and
others traveling this morning should be prepared for patchy fog that
could cause temporary visibility restrictions.

Upper ridging and high pressure will continue to build across the
region today, allowing for temperatures to rise to the middle 80s
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, with
upper 70s expected over the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupe Mountains.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with near
record high temperatures possible on Sunday, with highs Sunday
currently forecast to be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with
the exception of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and
Rio Grande Valley where low to possibly middle 90s are not out of
the question. The forecast high for Midland Sunday is 89 degrees,
one degree shy of the record of 90 set in 1950.

The aforementioned  upper level ridge will begin to flatten out
Sunday into Monday as the next Pacific trough works its way
eastward. Recent model runs have come into better agreement
regarding the trough passage early next week, as well as the
accompanying cold front which is expected to move through the area
early on Tuesday. Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of the
front, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage, though will serve
to drop temperatures into the 70s across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas for midweek. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a
secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with both models generating light
QPF over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains in southeasterly
return flow.  Thus, have maintained the low PoPs over this area,
though have still held off on mention of showers for the time being,
given how much can change between now and then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  56  85  58  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              85  59  86  60  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                84  54  87  57  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  85  59  87  60  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  60  88  61  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  59  81  62  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   84  54  86  55  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   79  46  80  48  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  58  86  57  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  85  59  86  59  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    88  57  91  57  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM MDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Northern Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Gaines...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...
     Midland...Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and
     Upper Trans Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...
     Winkler.


&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 241120
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
620 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
Fog increasing across the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin with vsbys
expected to fall to LIFR at HOB... INK... and PEQ... and IFR at
MAF. Not much stratus expected. By late morning most of the fog
should be gone with conditions improving to VFR areawide. Wind
will be southerly at 10kts or less.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and light winds have once again provided great
conditions for radiation fog to develop across parts of the area.
Given boundary layer moisture this morning is less than 24 hours
ago, widespread dense fog is not expected, though motorists and
others traveling this morning should be prepared for patchy fog that
could cause temporary visibility restrictions.

Upper ridging and high pressure will continue to build across the
region today, allowing for temperatures to rise to the middle 80s
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, with
upper 70s expected over the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupe Mountains.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with near
record high temperatures possible on Sunday, with highs Sunday
currently forecast to be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with
the exception of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and
Rio Grande Valley where low to possibly middle 90s are not out of
the question. The forecast high for Midland Sunday is 89 degrees,
one degree shy of the record of 90 set in 1950.

The aforementioned  upper level ridge will begin to flatten out
Sunday into Monday as the next Pacific trough works its way
eastward. Recent model runs have come into better agreement
regarding the trough passage early next week, as well as the
accompanying cold front which is expected to move through the area
early on Tuesday. Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of the
front, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage, though will serve
to drop temperatures into the 70s across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas for midweek. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a
secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with both models generating light
QPF over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains in southeasterly
return flow.  Thus, have maintained the low PoPs over this area,
though have still held off on mention of showers for the time being,
given how much can change between now and then.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 240928
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
428 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Clear skies and light winds have once again provided great
conditions for radiation fog to develop across parts of the area.
Given boundary layer moisture this morning is less than 24 hours
ago, widespread dense fog is not expected, though motorists and
others traveling this morning should be prepared for patchy fog that
could cause temporary visibility restrictions.

Upper ridging and high pressure will continue to build across the
region today, allowing for temperatures to rise to the middle 80s
across Southeast New Mexico and West Texas this afternoon, with
upper 70s expected over the Marfa Plateau and Guadalupe Mountains.
The warming trend will continue through the weekend, with near
record high temperatures possible on Sunday, with highs Sunday
currently forecast to be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with
the exception of the Southeast New Mexico Plains, Trans Pecos, and
Rio Grande Valley where low to possibly middle 90s are not out of
the question. The forecast high for Midland Sunday is 89 degrees,
one degree shy of the record of 90 set in 1950.

The aforementioned  upper level ridge will begin to flatten out
Sunday into Monday as the next Pacific trough works its way
eastward. Recent model runs have come into better agreement
regarding the trough passage early next week, as well as the
accompanying cold front which is expected to move through the area
early on Tuesday. Given a lack of moisture in place ahead of the
front, it is expected to be a dry frontal passage, though will serve
to drop temperatures into the 70s across Southeast New Mexico and
West Texas for midweek. Both the GFS and ECMWF are indicating a
secondary shortwave rounding the back side of the trough late
Tuesday night and early Wednesday, with both models generating light
QPF over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains in southeasterly
return flow.  Thus, have maintained the low PoPs over this area,
though have still held off on mention of showers for the time being,
given how much can change between now and then.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 84  56  85  58  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              85  59  86  60  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                84  54  87  57  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  85  59  87  60  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           86  60  88  61  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          79  59  81  62  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   84  54  86  55  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   79  46  80  48  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    85  58  86  57  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  85  59  86  59  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    88  57  91  57  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

49/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 240500
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concern for the night/early morning is potential for areas of
dense fog. High resolution models NAM BUFR and HRRR rh progs are
supportive of dense fog in a strip from PEQ to INK to HOB and
another area across the SE PB and Lower Trans Pecos. For now have
included 1/4-3/4SM at all but FST/CNM and mainly between 10Z-15Z.
Otherwise winds are light and of little consequence.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 240500
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1200 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concern for the night/early morning is potential for areas of
dense fog. High resolution models NAM BUFR and HRRR rh progs are
supportive of dense fog in a strip from PEQ to INK to HOB and
another area across the SE PB and Lower Trans Pecos. For now have
included 1/4-3/4SM at all but FST/CNM and mainly between 10Z-15Z.
Otherwise winds are light and of little consequence.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 232258
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
558 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions with clear skies and light winds are expected
for much of the TAF period. The exception will be from 11z to 16z
Friday, where TEMPO IFR conditions are expected to develop in fog at
most terminals.

12


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Residual low clouds from this morning`s fog have dissipated, leaving
mostly sunny conditions as cumulus has formed over and near the
Davis/Glass Mountains.  The same scenario looks to play out tomorrow
morning as light winds, a weak pressure gradient, and overnight
clear skies will bring the potential for fog development.  Areas
affected include: parts of the Guadalupe, Davis and Glass Mountains,
Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Southeast New Mexico plains.  Will
let the shift tonight adjust patchy fog wording accordingly.

Today will be the start of a gradual warming trend, which will
extend through the weekend as an upper ridge/high pressure builds
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Today, temperatures
will be around 80 degrees with slightly cooler temps in the higher
elevations.  As we move into the weekend, temperatures into the
mid/upper 80s will be present which is 10-15 degrees above normal
for this time of year.  We may warm to near record levels on
Sunday.  The record high for Midland International is 90 degrees set
in 1950.  The UA ridge will be flattened by a long wave trough
translating east through the central CONUS.  A cold front will push
through in the wake of the trough Monday night into Tuesday
morning.  It looks to be a dry frontal passage, though in the couple
days after, there could be a secondary shortwave trough passing near
or over the region.  This along with an increase in moisture from
southeasterly flow could allow for a chance of rain. Have slightly
increased PoPs over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains, but
will leave any mention of showers out for the time being.  Temps
will drop to around normal for Tuesday and remain in the mid 70s for
a couple days.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/06

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231946
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
246 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Residual low clouds from this morning`s fog have dissipated, leaving
mostly sunny conditions as cumulus has formed over and near the
Davis/Glass Mountains.  The same scenario looks to play out tomorrow
morning as light winds, a weak pressure gradient, and overnight
clear skies will bring the potential for fog development.  Areas
affected include: parts of the Guadalupe, Davis and Glass Mountains,
Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Southeast New Mexico plains.  Will
let the shift tonight adjust patchy fog wording accordingly.

Today will be the start of a gradual warming trend, which will
extend through the weekend as an upper ridge/high pressure builds
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Today, temperatures
will be around 80 degrees with slightly cooler temps in the higher
elevations.  As we move into the weekend, temperatures into the
mid/upper 80s will be present which is 10-15 degrees above normal
for this time of year.  We may warm to near record levels on
Sunday.  The record high for Midland International is 90 degrees set
in 1950.  The UA ridge will be flattened by a long wave trough
translating east through the central CONUS.  A cold front will push
through in the wake of the trough Monday night into Tuesday
morning.  It looks to be a dry frontal passage, though in the couple
days after, there could be a secondary shortwave trough passing near
or over the region.  This along with an increase in moisture from
southeasterly flow could allow for a chance of rain. Have slightly
increased PoPs over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains, but
will leave any mention of showers out for the time being.  Temps
will drop to around normal for Tuesday and remain in the mid 70s for
a couple days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  83  52  85  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              59  86  59  87  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                51  83  53  85  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  86  56  87  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  85  56  87  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  78  56  81  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   52  82  52  84  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   47  78  41  80  /   0  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  85  56  86  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  58  85  56  86  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    57  87  54  89  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/06

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231946
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
246 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Residual low clouds from this morning`s fog have dissipated, leaving
mostly sunny conditions as cumulus has formed over and near the
Davis/Glass Mountains.  The same scenario looks to play out tomorrow
morning as light winds, a weak pressure gradient, and overnight
clear skies will bring the potential for fog development.  Areas
affected include: parts of the Guadalupe, Davis and Glass Mountains,
Permian Basin, Trans Pecos, and Southeast New Mexico plains.  Will
let the shift tonight adjust patchy fog wording accordingly.

Today will be the start of a gradual warming trend, which will
extend through the weekend as an upper ridge/high pressure builds
across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico.  Today, temperatures
will be around 80 degrees with slightly cooler temps in the higher
elevations.  As we move into the weekend, temperatures into the
mid/upper 80s will be present which is 10-15 degrees above normal
for this time of year.  We may warm to near record levels on
Sunday.  The record high for Midland International is 90 degrees set
in 1950.  The UA ridge will be flattened by a long wave trough
translating east through the central CONUS.  A cold front will push
through in the wake of the trough Monday night into Tuesday
morning.  It looks to be a dry frontal passage, though in the couple
days after, there could be a secondary shortwave trough passing near
or over the region.  This along with an increase in moisture from
southeasterly flow could allow for a chance of rain. Have slightly
increased PoPs over the Lower Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains, but
will leave any mention of showers out for the time being.  Temps
will drop to around normal for Tuesday and remain in the mid 70s for
a couple days.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  83  52  85  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              59  86  59  87  /  10   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                51  83  53  85  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  60  86  56  87  /  10   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           60  85  56  87  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          57  78  56  81  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   52  82  52  84  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   47  78  41  80  /   0  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  85  56  86  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  58  85  56  86  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    57  87  54  89  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/06

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231713
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1213 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Fog has lifted across southeast New Mexico and the Permian Basin
late this morning, while IFR ceilings lingered over all but KMAF.
Will include IFR ceilings at KCNM, KHOB and KPEQ until 23/19Z as
low clouds should mix out more rapidly as heating continues.
Thereafter, expect VFR conditions to prevail areawide through this
afternoon and most of tonight.  There are some indications fog may
form again late tonight and Friday morning.  Since this will be near
the end of the forecast period will hold off introducing any lower
visibility/ ceilings due to fog.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231605
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1105 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to allow the Dense Fog Advisory expire.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Fog is still lingering in and near Hobbs, Seminole and Andrews at
23/16Z.  However, satellite imagery indicated low clouds were
dissipating and allowing for surface temperatures to warm.
Therefore, expect visibilities to improve in areas still experiencing
fog, rapidly in some cases, through noon CDT.  Therefore, will
allow the Dense Fog Advisory to expire.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z.

DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery and the latest surface observations indicate dense
fog is persisting over the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico
plains, Upper Trans Pecos and a good deal of the Permian basin.
Therefore, will extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z, at which
time some improvement should occur.  Update will follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to add additional counties to the Dense Fog Advisory.

DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery is indicating fog across portions of the Upper
trans Pecos at 23/13Z, in addition to portions of the southern
Permian Basin.  Despite the Dense Fog Advisory only being in affect
until 23/15Z, will add the above locations to the Advisory since
observations are indicating 1/4 mile or less.  Think we should begin
to receive enough heating by then for visibility to improve/fog to
lift.  An update will follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Dense fog has developed across portions of the area this morning.

DISCUSSION...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeastern New Mexico
as well as portions of the Permian Basin until 15Z this morning.
Observations indicate visibility reductions to one quarter mile in
the advisory area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231443
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
943 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery and the latest surface observations indicate dense
fog is persisting over the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico
plains, Upper Trans Pecos and a good deal of the Permian basin.
Therefore, will extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z, at which
time some improvement should occur.  Update will follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to add additional counties to the Dense Fog Advisory.

DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery is indicating fog across portions of the Upper
trans Pecos at 23/13Z, in addition to portions of the southern
Permian Basin.  Despite the Dense Fog Advisory only being in affect
until 23/15Z, will add the above locations to the Advisory since
observations are indicating 1/4 mile or less.  Think we should begin
to receive enough heating by then for visibility to improve/fog to
lift.  An update will follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Dense fog has developed across portions of the area this morning.

DISCUSSION...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeastern New Mexico
as well as portions of the Permian Basin until 15Z this morning.
Observations indicate visibility reductions to one quarter mile in
the advisory area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM MDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231443
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
943 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery and the latest surface observations indicate dense
fog is persisting over the Guadalupe Mountains, southeast New Mexico
plains, Upper Trans Pecos and a good deal of the Permian basin.
Therefore, will extend the Dense Fog Advisory until 23/16Z, at which
time some improvement should occur.  Update will follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 829 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to add additional counties to the Dense Fog Advisory.

DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery is indicating fog across portions of the Upper
trans Pecos at 23/13Z, in addition to portions of the southern
Permian Basin.  Despite the Dense Fog Advisory only being in affect
until 23/15Z, will add the above locations to the Advisory since
observations are indicating 1/4 mile or less.  Think we should begin
to receive enough heating by then for visibility to improve/fog to
lift.  An update will follow shortly.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Dense fog has developed across portions of the area this morning.

DISCUSSION...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeastern New Mexico
as well as portions of the Permian Basin until 15Z this morning.
Observations indicate visibility reductions to one quarter mile in
the advisory area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM MDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County
     Plains...Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea
     County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

44/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231329
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
829 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to add additional counties to the Dense Fog Advisory.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Satellite imagery is indicating fog across portions of the Upper
trans Pecos at 23/13Z, in addition to portions of the southern
Permian Basin.  Despite the Dense Fog Advisory only being in affect
until 23/15Z, will add the above locations to the Advisory since
observations are indicating 1/4 mile or less.  Think we should begin
to receive enough heating by then for visibility to improve/fog to
lift.  An update will follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 555 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

UPDATE...

Dense fog has developed across portions of the area this morning.

DISCUSSION...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeastern New Mexico
as well as portions of the Permian Basin until 15Z this morning.
Observations indicate visibility reductions to one quarter mile in
the advisory area.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County...Northern Lea County...
     Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Crane...Dawson...Ector...
     Gaines...Guadalupe Mountains...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos...Upton...Van Horn and
     Highway 54 Corridor...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

84/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 231055
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
555 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.UPDATE...

Dense fog has developed across portions of the area this morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for southeastern New Mexico
as well as portions of the Permian Basin until 15Z this morning.
Observations indicate visibility reductions to one quarter mile in
the advisory area.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 9 AM MDT this morning FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES... Central Lea County...Eddy County Plains...Northern
     Lea County...Southern Lea County.

TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CDT this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Dawson...Ector...Gaines...
     Martin...Midland...Winkler.


&&

$$

84/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 230928
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
428 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

SKC skies and light winds have promoted efficient radiational
cooling this AM, resulting in saturated sfc conditions over much
of the area. As such, LIFR-MVFR conditions will prevail at some
terminals for a few hours this morning, especially SE NM. Buffer
soundings suggest stratus/fog scattering out around noon, followed
by a cu field, w/bases 4-5 kft agl. Redevelopment will be possible
at KINK near the end of the forecast period, but we`ll keep
conditions VFR there for now.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 230920
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
420 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Clearing skies overnight combined with light winds and increased
boundary layer moisture have resulted in radiation fog development
over portions of southeastern New Mexico as well as the Trans Pecos
and western Permian Basin. The fog is currently expected to remain
patchy this morning, and should burn off quickly after sunrise.

A gradual warming trend will begin today and last through the
weekend as upper ridging develops over the region in the wake of the
departing upper level trough. By Sunday and into Monday,
temperatures will be in the middle to upper 80s area-wide, with low
90s possible in the Trans Pecos and Rio Grande Valley.

Models are in good agreement regarding trends through the weekend,
with the aforementioned 500mb ridge axis overhead by Saturday, and
beginning to flatten out on Sunday as height falls overspread the
region ahead of a deepening trough to the west. Model solutions then
diverge Monday night regarding the advancing trough and accompanying
cold front progged to move through the area. The GFS is the more
conservative solution at this time, maintaining a shallower trough,
and thus a weaker, dry FROPA by early Tuesday morning.  The ECMWF
solution indicates a slower FROPA and light QPF over far northern
portions of the CWFA, as well as a much deeper trough and developing
closed low. If the ECMWF solution were to verify, ridging would
quickly redevelop in the wake of the trough/closed low by midweek,
whereas the GFS maintains light southeasterly flow and perhaps some
precipitation by the end of the period.  Given these uncertainties,
have not made many changes from the going forecast, and will wait to
see better model agreement before including any precipitation
mention in an otherwise dry forecast through the extended.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 80  57  83  56  /  10   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              80  59  83  58  /  10  10   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                79  51  84  53  /  10   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  79  60  84  60  /  10  10   0  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           81  60  85  60  /  10   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          75  57  77  59  /  10   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   80  52  84  52  /  10   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   76  47  79  46  /  10   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    81  56  83  57  /  10   0   0  10
ODESSA TX                  81  58  84  58  /  10   0   0  10
WINK TX                    85  57  89  56  /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 230503
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars and satellite loops show convection/cloud cover has
pushed east of the region, while sfc obs indicate light return
flow. Buffer soundings suggest widespread stratus to develop near
sunrise, w/perhaps some fog most terminals. NAM buffer soundings
are quite pessimistic on cigs/visibilities 12-15Z, and won`t take
the bait just yet. For now, we`ll restrict cigs/vsbys to IFR at
worst, at KHOB/KINK/KPEQ, and MVFR at KCNM/KMAF. This should erode
by late morning, at which time a widespread cu field is forecast,
w/bases 4-4.5 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
TS remains in the area but is showing little movement, and will
probably dissipate before reaching any TAF sites. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected through tonight with MVFR or IFR possible in
southeast NM and the upper Trans Pecos around 12Z.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 230503
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1203 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Area radars and satellite loops show convection/cloud cover has
pushed east of the region, while sfc obs indicate light return
flow. Buffer soundings suggest widespread stratus to develop near
sunrise, w/perhaps some fog most terminals. NAM buffer soundings
are quite pessimistic on cigs/visibilities 12-15Z, and won`t take
the bait just yet. For now, we`ll restrict cigs/vsbys to IFR at
worst, at KHOB/KINK/KPEQ, and MVFR at KCNM/KMAF. This should erode
by late morning, at which time a widespread cu field is forecast,
w/bases 4-4.5 kft agl.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...
TS remains in the area but is showing little movement, and will
probably dissipate before reaching any TAF sites. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected through tonight with MVFR or IFR possible in
southeast NM and the upper Trans Pecos around 12Z.

Hennig

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 222300
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS remains in the area but is showing little movement, and will
probably dissipate before reaching any TAF sites. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected through tonight with MVFR or IFR possible in
southeast NM and the upper Trans Pecos around 12Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 222300
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
600 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
TS remains in the area but is showing little movement, and will
probably dissipate before reaching any TAF sites. Otherwise VFR
conditions expected through tonight with MVFR or IFR possible in
southeast NM and the upper Trans Pecos around 12Z.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 221936
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
236 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
An area of showers that continues from this mornings convection will lift
off to the NE out of the Permian Basin and into the Low Rolling
Plains.  Even though there is above normal moisture indicated by
this mornings sounding with PWATs at 1.20 in, the showers are not
producing any significant rainfalls. As the Pacific NW trough moves
through the area through, it will keep a chance of showers and
thunderstorms for the rest of this afternoon and into the early
evening across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos.  Looking at radar,
some scattered cells have already developed from the Davis
Mountains northward through the Permian Basin. The passing of an upper
jet will also help to promote lift to aid in thunderstorm
development. Instability parameters, on the other hand, do not
look overly impressive. Once the upper trough passes later today, the
chances for rain will drop off. An upper ridge will then build heading
into the weekend as temperatures will climb to above normal for
this time of year.

Looking into the extended, the ridge will be flattened by an
approaching trough bringing a cold front into the area sometime
overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. Do not anticipate any
precipitation with this front, but it will bring more normal
temperatures to the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 57  81  57  82  /  10  10   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              55  81  59  85  /  10  10  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                54  81  53  83  /  10  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  59  80  61  83  /  10  10  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  81  59  85  /  10  10   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          56  76  58  77  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   54  80  54  82  /  10  10   0   0
MARFA TX                   48  76  47  78  /  10  10   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  81  58  85  /  10  10   0   0
ODESSA TX                  55  81  58  85  /  10  10   0   0
WINK TX                    54  84  56  86  /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/06

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 221755
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 22/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers NE of KMAF will continue progressing NE. Elsewhere skies
are expected to become VFR areawide by 22/21Z. Light winds and
mostly clear skies will set up a nice radiative fog event by
sunrise, as indicated by model BUFR soundings. Shallow MVFR vsbys
in fog are expected areawide with localized IFR vsbys possible for
a few hours. Vsbys could fall to LIFR category at KHOB as this
terminal`s vsby seems to crater for some unknown reason. The fog
will lift quickly after daybreak with variable surface winds and
VFR conditions...ideal GA flying weather.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The 12Z aviation discussion can be found below.

AVIATION...

Scattered showers continue across the area this morning, and the
chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through early
this evening, along and east of a KHOB-KPEQ-KPRS line. Have
maintained -SHRA mention for KHOB, and introduced -SHRA for the
first couple hours of the valid period for KMAF due to an area of
showers currently moving northward through the Permian Basin.
While flight conditions should largely remain VFR, areas of low
clouds could result in transient MVFR conditions, mainly prior to
18Z today. Expect ceilings to scatter out between 00-03Z this
evening, and gradually clear through the end of the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the PacNW trough from 24 hrs ago now over MT, and
extending thru the Rockies and into the desert SW, and set to move
thru West Texas/SE NM later today.  Closer to home, area radars show
spotty SHRA across the area, in line w/what`s occurred over the past
24 hrs.  MPE amounts over the past 24 hrs suggest models were
somewhat overwrought w/this event, although the main trough has yet
to pass thru.  Buffer soundings keep PWATs near 2 STD DEVs above
normal this morning, w/the column saturated to H5, but model QPFs
are not impressive.  Neither are instability parameters, w/forecast
sbcapes generally below 1000 J/kg.  Models bring the upper jet thru
the area this morning and afternoon, w/the left front exit region running
along the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, so lift may be a bit better
there.  Still, all this suggests leaning toward a low-pop, low-qpf
scenario, w/more SHRA than TSRA.  POPs will taper off to the SE and
S thru Thu morning as the tail-end of the trough exits the region.
An upper-lvl ridge then builds in from the west into the weekend,
then gets flattened SE as a broad, west coast trough approaches.
This feature is forecast to move thru the region Monday or so,
dropping a cold front into the area late Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

W/abundant cloud cover, saturated columns, and persistently-high sfc
dewpoints, diurnal spreads on temps will remain small in the
short-term, which would favor leaning towards the GFS MOS over the
NAM.  W/upper ridging expected, the long term favors the slightly
warmer GFS over the ECMWF.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 221755
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1255 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 22/18Z forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Showers NE of KMAF will continue progressing NE. Elsewhere skies
are expected to become VFR areawide by 22/21Z. Light winds and
mostly clear skies will set up a nice radiative fog event by
sunrise, as indicated by model BUFR soundings. Shallow MVFR vsbys
in fog are expected areawide with localized IFR vsbys possible for
a few hours. Vsbys could fall to LIFR category at KHOB as this
terminal`s vsby seems to crater for some unknown reason. The fog
will lift quickly after daybreak with variable surface winds and
VFR conditions...ideal GA flying weather.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The 12Z aviation discussion can be found below.

AVIATION...

Scattered showers continue across the area this morning, and the
chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through early
this evening, along and east of a KHOB-KPEQ-KPRS line. Have
maintained -SHRA mention for KHOB, and introduced -SHRA for the
first couple hours of the valid period for KMAF due to an area of
showers currently moving northward through the Permian Basin.
While flight conditions should largely remain VFR, areas of low
clouds could result in transient MVFR conditions, mainly prior to
18Z today. Expect ceilings to scatter out between 00-03Z this
evening, and gradually clear through the end of the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the PacNW trough from 24 hrs ago now over MT, and
extending thru the Rockies and into the desert SW, and set to move
thru West Texas/SE NM later today.  Closer to home, area radars show
spotty SHRA across the area, in line w/what`s occurred over the past
24 hrs.  MPE amounts over the past 24 hrs suggest models were
somewhat overwrought w/this event, although the main trough has yet
to pass thru.  Buffer soundings keep PWATs near 2 STD DEVs above
normal this morning, w/the column saturated to H5, but model QPFs
are not impressive.  Neither are instability parameters, w/forecast
sbcapes generally below 1000 J/kg.  Models bring the upper jet thru
the area this morning and afternoon, w/the left front exit region running
along the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, so lift may be a bit better
there.  Still, all this suggests leaning toward a low-pop, low-qpf
scenario, w/more SHRA than TSRA.  POPs will taper off to the SE and
S thru Thu morning as the tail-end of the trough exits the region.
An upper-lvl ridge then builds in from the west into the weekend,
then gets flattened SE as a broad, west coast trough approaches.
This feature is forecast to move thru the region Monday or so,
dropping a cold front into the area late Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

W/abundant cloud cover, saturated columns, and persistently-high sfc
dewpoints, diurnal spreads on temps will remain small in the
short-term, which would favor leaning towards the GFS MOS over the
NAM.  W/upper ridging expected, the long term favors the slightly
warmer GFS over the ECMWF.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 221134
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
634 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The 12Z aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers continue across the area this morning, and the
chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through early
this evening, along and east of a KHOB-KPEQ-KPRS line. Have
maintained -SHRA mention for KHOB, and introduced -SHRA for the
first couple hours of the valid period for KMAF due to an area of
showers currently moving northward through the Permian Basin.
While flight conditions should largely remain VFR, areas of low
clouds could result in transient MVFR conditions, mainly prior to
18Z today. Expect ceilings to scatter out between 00-03Z this
evening, and gradually clear through the end of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the PacNW trough from 24 hrs ago now over MT, and
extending thru the Rockies and into the desert SW, and set to move
thru West Texas/SE NM later today.  Closer to home, area radars show
spotty SHRA across the area, in line w/what`s occurred over the past
24 hrs.  MPE amounts over the past 24 hrs suggest models were
somewhat overwrought w/this event, although the main trough has yet
to pass thru.  Buffer soundings keep PWATs near 2 STD DEVs above
normal this morning, w/the column saturated to H5, but model QPFs
are not impressive.  Neither are instability parameters, w/forecast
sbcapes generally below 1000 J/kg.  Models bring the upper jet thru
the area this morning and afternoon, w/the left front exit region running
along the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, so lift may be a bit better
there.  Still, all this suggests leaning toward a low-pop, low-qpf
scenario, w/more SHRA than TSRA.  POPs will taper off to the SE and
S thru Thu morning as the tail-end of the trough exits the region.
An upper-lvl ridge then builds in from the west into the weekend,
then gets flattened SE as a broad, west coast trough approaches.
This feature is forecast to move thru the region Monday or so,
dropping a cold front into the area late Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

W/abundant cloud cover, saturated columns, and persistently-high sfc
dewpoints, diurnal spreads on temps will remain small in the
short-term, which would favor leaning towards the GFS MOS over the
NAM.  W/upper ridging expected, the long term favors the slightly
warmer GFS over the ECMWF.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 220845
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

WV imagery shows the PacNW trough from 24 hrs ago now over MT, and
extending thru the Rockies and into the desert SW, and set to move
thru West Texas/SE NM later today.  Closer to home, area radars show
spotty SHRA across the area, in line w/what`s occurred over the past
24 hrs.  MPE amounts over the past 24 hrs suggest models were
somewhat overwrought w/this event, although the main trough has yet
to pass thru.  Buffer soundings keep PWATs near 2 STD DEVs above
normal this morning, w/the column saturated to H5, but model QPFs
are not impressive.  Neither are instability parameters, w/forecast
sbcapes generally below 1000 J/kg.  Models bring the upper jet thru
the area this morning and afternoon, w/the left front exit region running
along the Wrn Low Rolling Plains, so lift may be a bit better
there.  Still, all this suggests leaning toward a low-pop, low-qpf
scenario, w/more SHRA than TSRA.  POPs will taper off to the SE and
S thru Thu morning as the tail-end of the trough exits the region.
An upper-lvl ridge then builds in from the west into the weekend,
then gets flattened SE as a broad, west coast trough approaches.
This feature is forecast to move thru the region Monday or so,
dropping a cold front into the area late Monday night/Tuesday
morning.

W/abundant cloud cover, saturated columns, and persistently-high sfc
dewpoints, diurnal spreads on temps will remain small in the
short-term, which would favor leaning towards the GFS MOS over the
NAM.  W/upper ridging expected, the long term favors the slightly
warmer GFS over the ECMWF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 74  57  81  58  /  40  10  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              74  55  81  57  /  30  10  10  10
CARLSBAD NM                75  56  81  54  /  30  10  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  70  59  80  61  /  30  10  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           77  57  81  59  /  40  10  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          69  57  76  59  /  20  10  10   0
HOBBS NM                   75  54  80  55  /  30  10  10   0
MARFA TX                   71  47  76  46  /  30  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    74  53  81  56  /  40  10  10   0
ODESSA TX                  73  54  81  56  /  40  10  10   0
WINK TX                    79  53  84  56  /  40  10  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 220552
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1252 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The 06Z aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers continue to percolate across parts of the area
tonight, and thus have maintained mention of -SHRA in KHOB and
KCNM TAFs. Flight conditions will remain largely VFR, though
periods of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out as showers move
through the area, mainly before 18Z Wednesday. One exception is
KPEQ, where a window exists from roughly 10-14Z for some transient
MVFR fog development. Otherwise, not many changes made to the
going TAF package, as light southeast winds will prevail, with
ceilings scattering out by latter portion of the TAF period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Minor shrtwv trof within mid level trof axis is lifting nwd across
the PB with SHRA renewed in wrn PB/SE NM. Presence of clouds have
limited surface based instability so only low order PoPs warranted
rest of afternoon/evening, especially ern 1/3 of CWFA. The exception
will be to the w and mostly north of I-20 where said mid level trof
will sharpen some and where mid level lift will increase late tonight.
PoPs tonight were in the sct-likely range across the w, but that
was probably too high/too far e (in the 06Z-12Z window) and have
opted to decrease those on the southern and eastern extent before
12Z. Pretty good agreement that highest Pops will be btwn 15Z-21Z
Wed across the PB, which is handled well in current fcst. Local
heavy rain is still possible too and have included a mention Wed
across parts of the PB where PoPs are generally greater than 55%.
The chance of rain will move ewd thru the CWFA into Thur AM with
the slow moving mid level trof. Rain cooled air underneath lower
heights will make for below normal temps Wed PM. Mostly trending
warmer and drier Thur-Sunday with hier heights Thur-Fri and more
prominent low level thermal ridging Sat- Monday. Models do
indicate that front has slowed from Monday afternoon (as seen in
yesterdays runs) to Tuesday morning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 220552
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1252 AM CDT Wed Oct 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The 06Z aviation discussion can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Scattered showers continue to percolate across parts of the area
tonight, and thus have maintained mention of -SHRA in KHOB and
KCNM TAFs. Flight conditions will remain largely VFR, though
periods of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out as showers move
through the area, mainly before 18Z Wednesday. One exception is
KPEQ, where a window exists from roughly 10-14Z for some transient
MVFR fog development. Otherwise, not many changes made to the
going TAF package, as light southeast winds will prevail, with
ceilings scattering out by latter portion of the TAF period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 201 PM CDT Tue Oct 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Minor shrtwv trof within mid level trof axis is lifting nwd across
the PB with SHRA renewed in wrn PB/SE NM. Presence of clouds have
limited surface based instability so only low order PoPs warranted
rest of afternoon/evening, especially ern 1/3 of CWFA. The exception
will be to the w and mostly north of I-20 where said mid level trof
will sharpen some and where mid level lift will increase late tonight.
PoPs tonight were in the sct-likely range across the w, but that
was probably too high/too far e (in the 06Z-12Z window) and have
opted to decrease those on the southern and eastern extent before
12Z. Pretty good agreement that highest Pops will be btwn 15Z-21Z
Wed across the PB, which is handled well in current fcst. Local
heavy rain is still possible too and have included a mention Wed
across parts of the PB where PoPs are generally greater than 55%.
The chance of rain will move ewd thru the CWFA into Thur AM with
the slow moving mid level trof. Rain cooled air underneath lower
heights will make for below normal temps Wed PM. Mostly trending
warmer and drier Thur-Sunday with hier heights Thur-Fri and more
prominent low level thermal ridging Sat- Monday. Models do
indicate that front has slowed from Monday afternoon (as seen in
yesterdays runs) to Tuesday morning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84

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