Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KMAF 221124
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
524 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIG/VIS has been patchy this morning. Conditions may bounce
up and down for the first few hours of the TAF before remaining
VFR from around 16Z onward. Scattered showers are developing and a
few lightning strikes are possible, but the chances for TS on
station at any TAF site are too low to mention at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
northwest Mexico will be the main feature of interest today.
This system will approach the Big Bend by this evening allowing
an anomalous late season low level moisture surge northwestward
from the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive
upper divergence associated with the upper system should act on a
unstable atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an
advancing cold front. The best chance of thunderstorms (good
chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin this
morning. This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for
the longest period of time ahead of the upper system. Some of
these storms could be on the strong side in the eastern Permian
Basin, producing hail and gusty winds given elevated capes of
over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air aloft
and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will decrease
this afternoon as the system pushes east toward west central
Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday.
Northwest 700 millibar flow of 50 knots is forecast in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains on Sunday and combined with a
tight surface pressure gradient could produce strong winds.
A high wind watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains
and the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet Sunday through mid
Sunday evening.

Below normal temperatures may return to the forecast area
next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Sunday evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 221124
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
524 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIG/VIS has been patchy this morning. Conditions may bounce
up and down for the first few hours of the TAF before remaining
VFR from around 16Z onward. Scattered showers are developing and a
few lightning strikes are possible, but the chances for TS on
station at any TAF site are too low to mention at this time.

Hennig

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
northwest Mexico will be the main feature of interest today.
This system will approach the Big Bend by this evening allowing
an anomalous late season low level moisture surge northwestward
from the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive
upper divergence associated with the upper system should act on a
unstable atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an
advancing cold front. The best chance of thunderstorms (good
chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin this
morning. This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for
the longest period of time ahead of the upper system. Some of
these storms could be on the strong side in the eastern Permian
Basin, producing hail and gusty winds given elevated capes of
over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air aloft
and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will decrease
this afternoon as the system pushes east toward west central
Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday.
Northwest 700 millibar flow of 50 knots is forecast in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains on Sunday and combined with a
tight surface pressure gradient could produce strong winds.
A high wind watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains
and the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet Sunday through mid
Sunday evening.

Below normal temperatures may return to the forecast area
next weekend.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Sunday evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 221010
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
northwest Mexico will be the main feature of interest today.
This system will approach the Big Bend by this evening allowing
an anomalous late season low level moisture surge northwestward
from the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive
upper divergence associated with the upper system should act on a
unstable atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an
advancing cold front. The best chance of thunderstorms (good
chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin this
morning. This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for
the longest period of time ahead of the upper system. Some of
these storms could be on the strong side in the eastern Permian
Basin, producing hail and gusty winds given elevated capes of
over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air aloft
and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will decrease
this afternoon as the system pushes east toward west central
Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday.
Northwest 700 millibar flow of 50 knots is forecast in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains on Sunday and combined with a
tight surface pressure gradient could produce strong winds.
A high wind watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains
and the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet Sunday through mid
Sunday evening.

Below normal temperatures may return to the forecast area
next weekend.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  44  69  32  /  30   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              67  46  71  37  /  60  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                69  44  72  32  /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  48  77  42  /  40  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  50  73  36  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  41  60  32  /  20   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   67  41  67  30  /  20   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   66  32  66  25  /  20   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  45  70  31  /  40   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  68  46  67  33  /  30   0   0   0
WINK TX                    70  42  73  34  /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Sunday evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 221010
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
northwest Mexico will be the main feature of interest today.
This system will approach the Big Bend by this evening allowing
an anomalous late season low level moisture surge northwestward
from the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive
upper divergence associated with the upper system should act on a
unstable atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an
advancing cold front. The best chance of thunderstorms (good
chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin this
morning. This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for
the longest period of time ahead of the upper system. Some of
these storms could be on the strong side in the eastern Permian
Basin, producing hail and gusty winds given elevated capes of
over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air aloft
and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will decrease
this afternoon as the system pushes east toward west central
Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday.
Northwest 700 millibar flow of 50 knots is forecast in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains on Sunday and combined with a
tight surface pressure gradient could produce strong winds.
A high wind watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains
and the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet Sunday through mid
Sunday evening.

Below normal temperatures may return to the forecast area
next weekend.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  44  69  32  /  30   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              67  46  71  37  /  60  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                69  44  72  32  /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  48  77  42  /  40  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  50  73  36  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  41  60  32  /  20   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   67  41  67  30  /  20   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   66  32  66  25  /  20   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  45  70  31  /  40   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  68  46  67  33  /  30   0   0   0
WINK TX                    70  42  73  34  /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Sunday evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 221010
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
410 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
northwest Mexico will be the main feature of interest today.
This system will approach the Big Bend by this evening allowing
an anomalous late season low level moisture surge northwestward
from the western Gulf of Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive
upper divergence associated with the upper system should act on a
unstable atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an
advancing cold front. The best chance of thunderstorms (good
chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin this
morning. This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for
the longest period of time ahead of the upper system. Some of
these storms could be on the strong side in the eastern Permian
Basin, producing hail and gusty winds given elevated capes of
over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air aloft
and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will decrease
this afternoon as the system pushes east toward west central
Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday.
Northwest 700 millibar flow of 50 knots is forecast in the
Guadalupe and Davis Mountains on Sunday and combined with a
tight surface pressure gradient could produce strong winds.
A high wind watch has been issued for the Guadalupe Mountains
and the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet Sunday through mid
Sunday evening.

Below normal temperatures may return to the forecast area
next weekend.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 65  44  69  32  /  30   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              67  46  71  37  /  60  10   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                69  44  72  32  /  20   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  68  48  77  42  /  40  10   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  50  73  36  /  20   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          62  41  60  32  /  20   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   67  41  67  30  /  20   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   66  32  66  25  /  20   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    67  45  70  31  /  40   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  68  46  67  33  /  30   0   0   0
WINK TX                    70  42  73  34  /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...HIGH WIND WATCH from late tonight through Sunday evening FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

TX...HIGH WIND WATCH from Sunday morning through Sunday evening FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES... Davis/Apache Mountains Area...
     Guadalupe Mountains.


&&

$$

10/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 220442
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1035 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See the 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Southeast winds will become light and variable overnight through
Saturday morning.  Low ceilings are already starting to come into
the area and will continue moving in through 09z.  Fog is possible
from about 09z to 15z.  The low ceilings should move out of the area
around 18z Saturday.  Showers and thunderstorms will be possible for
mainly MAF, FST, INK, and HOB through 00z Sunday with MAF having the
highest chances.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Warm advection will continue across the region tonight, yielding
mild overnight temperatures in the 40s and 50s area-wide, with mid
to upper 30s on the Marfa Plateau. Boundary layer moisture will also
continue to increase tonight, and given the dense fog that some
locations experienced this morning, would not be surprised to see
fog/low cloud redevelopment late this evening and overnight,
particularly for areas near and north of the Pecos River. While
dense fog is possible, it is not currently mentioned in the
forecast, and will need monitored by later shifts if an advisory
ends up being warranted.

A potent upper level system currently located over southwest Arizona
per latest water vapor imagery continues its trek east-southeastward
toward the area, and will dominate sensible weather for the next
24-36 hours. Models are in very good agreement regarding the track
of this system, with the trough continuing to dig as the trough
passes just south of the Big Bend by 18Z Saturday, before lifting
northeast and developing a negative tilt as it moves toward the
Lower Mississippi Valley.  Modest 500mb height falls will overspread
the region this evening ahead of the approaching trough, and given
support from a 300mb jet rounding the base of the trough, ascent
will increase across the area, particularly over the Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin. Ample low level convergence along and ahead of an
eastward-moving cold front will further increase forcing, and in the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and elevated instability on
the order of 1000 J/kg, thunderstorms are expected to develop
tonight through early Saturday. The greatest probability of storms
will be over eastern portions of the Permian Basin, and while
widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated, stronger
storms will have the potential to produce large hail. Other threats
with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief downpours, and
frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, the precipitation will shift east of the
area, and given the aforementioned cold front isn`t of Polar origin,
temperatures through the weekend should be seasonable. In the wake
of the departing system, Sunday and Monday could be quite breezy,
with high winds possible over higher terrain, particularly over the
Davis Mountains. A return to a northwest flow regime will also
dictate a dry forecast through the extended, thus, while a second
cold front will move through the area Monday, it will be dry, and
result in slightly below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures should then slowly moderate into the middle 60s through
the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland












000
FXUS64 KMAF 212344
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Southeast winds will become light and variable overnight through
Saturday morning.  Low ceilings and visibilities will be possible
starting around 03z and continuing until around 18z.  Fog is
possible from about 09z to 15z.  Thunderstorms will also be possible
during this time, especially for MAF.  Thunderstorms will also be
possible into Saturday afternoon for MAF and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Warm advection will continue across the region tonight, yielding
mild overnight temperatures in the 40s and 50s area-wide, with mid
to upper 30s on the Marfa Plateau. Boundary layer moisture will also
continue to increase tonight, and given the dense fog that some
locations experienced this morning, would not be surprised to see
fog/low cloud redevelopment late this evening and overnight,
particularly for areas near and north of the Pecos River. While
dense fog is possible, it is not currently mentioned in the
forecast, and will need monitored by later shifts if an advisory
ends up being warranted.

A potent upper level system currently located over southwest Arizona
per latest water vapor imagery continues its trek east-southeastward
toward the area, and will dominate sensible weather for the next
24-36 hours. Models are in very good agreement regarding the track
of this system, with the trough continuing to dig as the trough
passes just south of the Big Bend by 18Z Saturday, before lifting
northeast and developing a negative tilt as it moves toward the
Lower Mississippi Valley.  Modest 500mb height falls will overspread
the region this evening ahead of the approaching trough, and given
support from a 300mb jet rounding the base of the trough, ascent
will increase across the area, particularly over the Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin. Ample low level convergence along and ahead of an
eastward-moving cold front will further increase forcing, and in the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and elevated instability on
the order of 1000 J/kg, thunderstorms are expected to develop
tonight through early Saturday. The greatest probability of storms
will be over eastern portions of the Permian Basin, and while
widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated, stronger
storms will have the potential to produce large hail. Other threats
with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief downpours, and
frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, the precipitation will shift east of the
area, and given the aforementioned cold front isn`t of Polar origin,
temperatures through the weekend should be seasonable. In the wake
of the departing system, Sunday and Monday could be quite breezy,
with high winds possible over higher terrain, particularly over the
Davis Mountains. A return to a northwest flow regime will also
dictate a dry forecast through the extended, thus, while a second
cold front will move through the area Monday, it will be dry, and
result in slightly below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures should then slowly moderate into the middle 60s through
the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland










000
FXUS64 KMAF 212344
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
537 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Southeast winds will become light and variable overnight through
Saturday morning.  Low ceilings and visibilities will be possible
starting around 03z and continuing until around 18z.  Fog is
possible from about 09z to 15z.  Thunderstorms will also be possible
during this time, especially for MAF.  Thunderstorms will also be
possible into Saturday afternoon for MAF and FST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Warm advection will continue across the region tonight, yielding
mild overnight temperatures in the 40s and 50s area-wide, with mid
to upper 30s on the Marfa Plateau. Boundary layer moisture will also
continue to increase tonight, and given the dense fog that some
locations experienced this morning, would not be surprised to see
fog/low cloud redevelopment late this evening and overnight,
particularly for areas near and north of the Pecos River. While
dense fog is possible, it is not currently mentioned in the
forecast, and will need monitored by later shifts if an advisory
ends up being warranted.

A potent upper level system currently located over southwest Arizona
per latest water vapor imagery continues its trek east-southeastward
toward the area, and will dominate sensible weather for the next
24-36 hours. Models are in very good agreement regarding the track
of this system, with the trough continuing to dig as the trough
passes just south of the Big Bend by 18Z Saturday, before lifting
northeast and developing a negative tilt as it moves toward the
Lower Mississippi Valley.  Modest 500mb height falls will overspread
the region this evening ahead of the approaching trough, and given
support from a 300mb jet rounding the base of the trough, ascent
will increase across the area, particularly over the Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin. Ample low level convergence along and ahead of an
eastward-moving cold front will further increase forcing, and in the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and elevated instability on
the order of 1000 J/kg, thunderstorms are expected to develop
tonight through early Saturday. The greatest probability of storms
will be over eastern portions of the Permian Basin, and while
widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated, stronger
storms will have the potential to produce large hail. Other threats
with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief downpours, and
frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, the precipitation will shift east of the
area, and given the aforementioned cold front isn`t of Polar origin,
temperatures through the weekend should be seasonable. In the wake
of the departing system, Sunday and Monday could be quite breezy,
with high winds possible over higher terrain, particularly over the
Davis Mountains. A return to a northwest flow regime will also
dictate a dry forecast through the extended, thus, while a second
cold front will move through the area Monday, it will be dry, and
result in slightly below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures should then slowly moderate into the middle 60s through
the rest of the week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland









000
FXUS64 KMAF 212105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
305 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Warm advection will continue across the region tonight, yielding
mild overnight temperatures in the 40s and 50s area-wide, with mid
to upper 30s on the Marfa Plateau. Boundary layer moisture will also
continue to increase tonight, and given the dense fog that some
locations experienced this morning, would not be surprised to see
fog/low cloud redevelopment late this evening and overnight,
particularly for areas near and north of the Pecos River. While
dense fog is possible, it is not currently mentioned in the
forecast, and will need monitored by later shifts if an advisory
ends up being warranted.

A potent upper level system currently located over southwest Arizona
per latest water vapor imagery continues its trek east-southeastward
toward the area, and will dominate sensible weather for the next
24-36 hours. Models are in very good agreement regarding the track
of this system, with the trough continuing to dig as the trough
passes just south of the Big Bend by 18Z Saturday, before lifting
northeast and developing a negative tilt as it moves toward the
Lower Mississippi Valley.  Modest 500mb height falls will overspread
the region this evening ahead of the approaching trough, and given
support from a 300mb jet rounding the base of the trough, ascent
will increase across the area, particularly over the Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin. Ample low level convergence along and ahead of an
eastward-moving cold front will further increase forcing, and in the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and elevated instability on
the order of 1000 J/kg, thunderstorms are expected to develop
tonight through early Saturday. The greatest probability of storms
will be over eastern portions of the Permian Basin, and while
widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated, stronger
storms will have the potential to produce large hail. Other threats
with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief downpours, and
frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, the precipitation will shift east of the
area, and given the aforementioned cold front isn`t of Polar origin,
temperatures through the weekend should be seasonable. In the wake
of the departing system, Sunday and Monday could be quite breezy,
with high winds possible over higher terrain, particularly over the
Davis Mountains. A return to a northwest flow regime will also
dictate a dry forecast through the extended, thus, while a second
cold front will move through the area Monday, it will be dry, and
result in slightly below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures should then slowly moderate into the middle 60s through
the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 51  66  45  68  /  40  30  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              54  67  46  69  /  60  60  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                44  71  44  71  /  20  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  74  48  77  /  20  30  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  71  49  72  /  20  30  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          43  60  41  61  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   50  65  42  66  /  20  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   36  63  33  65  /  10  20   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  67  43  71  /  40  50  10   0
ODESSA TX                  52  67  44  68  /  40  40  10   0
WINK TX                    52  70  44  72  /  20  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/84

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 212105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
305 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Warm advection will continue across the region tonight, yielding
mild overnight temperatures in the 40s and 50s area-wide, with mid
to upper 30s on the Marfa Plateau. Boundary layer moisture will also
continue to increase tonight, and given the dense fog that some
locations experienced this morning, would not be surprised to see
fog/low cloud redevelopment late this evening and overnight,
particularly for areas near and north of the Pecos River. While
dense fog is possible, it is not currently mentioned in the
forecast, and will need monitored by later shifts if an advisory
ends up being warranted.

A potent upper level system currently located over southwest Arizona
per latest water vapor imagery continues its trek east-southeastward
toward the area, and will dominate sensible weather for the next
24-36 hours. Models are in very good agreement regarding the track
of this system, with the trough continuing to dig as the trough
passes just south of the Big Bend by 18Z Saturday, before lifting
northeast and developing a negative tilt as it moves toward the
Lower Mississippi Valley.  Modest 500mb height falls will overspread
the region this evening ahead of the approaching trough, and given
support from a 300mb jet rounding the base of the trough, ascent
will increase across the area, particularly over the Trans Pecos and
Permian Basin. Ample low level convergence along and ahead of an
eastward-moving cold front will further increase forcing, and in the
presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and elevated instability on
the order of 1000 J/kg, thunderstorms are expected to develop
tonight through early Saturday. The greatest probability of storms
will be over eastern portions of the Permian Basin, and while
widespread severe weather is not currently anticipated, stronger
storms will have the potential to produce large hail. Other threats
with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief downpours, and
frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, the precipitation will shift east of the
area, and given the aforementioned cold front isn`t of Polar origin,
temperatures through the weekend should be seasonable. In the wake
of the departing system, Sunday and Monday could be quite breezy,
with high winds possible over higher terrain, particularly over the
Davis Mountains. A return to a northwest flow regime will also
dictate a dry forecast through the extended, thus, while a second
cold front will move through the area Monday, it will be dry, and
result in slightly below normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday.
Temperatures should then slowly moderate into the middle 60s through
the rest of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 51  66  45  68  /  40  30  10   0
BIG SPRING TX              54  67  46  69  /  60  60  10   0
CARLSBAD NM                44  71  44  71  /  20  10   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  54  74  48  77  /  20  30  10   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           49  71  49  72  /  20  30  10   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          43  60  41  61  /  10  10   0   0
HOBBS NM                   50  65  42  66  /  20  20  10   0
MARFA TX                   36  63  33  65  /  10  20   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    54  67  43  71  /  40  50  10   0
ODESSA TX                  52  67  44  68  /  40  40  10   0
WINK TX                    52  70  44  72  /  20  30  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/84

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 211754
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1154 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Dense fog and low clouds are expected to redevelop later this
evening after 02z. LIFR to IFR conditions with low clouds and fog are
expected at all TAF sites except KCNM and KFST which should
experience slightly better conditions. The approach of an upper
level storm system will result in a chance for showers and
thunderstorms overnight and Saturday morning mainly across the
central and eastern portions of the Permian Basin and portions of
the Trans Pecos Region.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED 353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
southern California will be the main feature of interest the next
couple of days. This system will approach the forecast area
tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late season increase in
low level moisture surge northwestward from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence associated
with the upper system should act on a unstable atmosphere and
allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing eastward moving
cold front late tonight and Saturday. The best chance of
thunderstorms (good chance to likely) will be across the eastern
Permian Basin. This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture
for the longest period of time. Some of these storms could be
strong, producing hail, in the eastern Permian Basin, given
elevated capes of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse
rates, cold air aloft and strong shear expected. Precipitation
chances will begin to decrease Saturday afternoon as the system
pushes east toward west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 211754
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1154 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Please see the 18z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Dense fog and low clouds are expected to redevelop later this
evening after 02z. LIFR to IFR conditions with low clouds and fog are
expected at all TAF sites except KCNM and KFST which should
experience slightly better conditions. The approach of an upper
level storm system will result in a chance for showers and
thunderstorms overnight and Saturday morning mainly across the
central and eastern portions of the Permian Basin and portions of
the Trans Pecos Region.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION /ISSUED 353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
southern California will be the main feature of interest the next
couple of days. This system will approach the forecast area
tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late season increase in
low level moisture surge northwestward from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence associated
with the upper system should act on a unstable atmosphere and
allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing eastward moving
cold front late tonight and Saturday. The best chance of
thunderstorms (good chance to likely) will be across the eastern
Permian Basin. This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture
for the longest period of time. Some of these storms could be
strong, producing hail, in the eastern Permian Basin, given
elevated capes of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse
rates, cold air aloft and strong shear expected. Precipitation
chances will begin to decrease Saturday afternoon as the system
pushes east toward west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 211613
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1013 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...

We have updated the forecast as dense fog has begun to dissipated
across the area. Fog will continue to diminish the next few hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION... A potent southern stream upper level low pressure
area across southern California will be the main feature of
interest the next couple of days. This system will approach the
forecast area tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late
season increase in low level moisture surge northwestward from the
western Gulf of Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper
divergence associated with the upper system should act on a
unstable atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an
advancing eastward moving cold front late tonight and Saturday.
The best chance of thunderstorms (good chance to likely) will be
across the eastern Permian Basin. This area is expected to be in
the deepest moisture for the longest period of time. Some of these
storms could be strong, producing hail, in the eastern Permian
Basin, given elevated capes of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid
level lapse rates, cold air aloft and strong shear expected.
Precipitation chances will begin to decrease Saturday afternoon as
the system pushes east toward west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  52  66  45  /   0  30  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  55  67  46  /   0  50  70  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  43  72  44  /   0  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  73  55  75  48  /   0  20  30   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  49  71  49  /   0  20  30   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  43  60  41  /   0  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   66  50  66  42  /   0  20  30   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  63  33  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  54  67  46  /   0  30  50   0
ODESSA TX                  68  52  68  46  /   0  30  50   0
WINK TX                    72  51  71  44  /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/84

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 211613
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1013 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...

We have updated the forecast as dense fog has begun to dissipated
across the area. Fog will continue to diminish the next few hours.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION... A potent southern stream upper level low pressure
area across southern California will be the main feature of
interest the next couple of days. This system will approach the
forecast area tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late
season increase in low level moisture surge northwestward from the
western Gulf of Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper
divergence associated with the upper system should act on a
unstable atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an
advancing eastward moving cold front late tonight and Saturday.
The best chance of thunderstorms (good chance to likely) will be
across the eastern Permian Basin. This area is expected to be in
the deepest moisture for the longest period of time. Some of these
storms could be strong, producing hail, in the eastern Permian
Basin, given elevated capes of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid
level lapse rates, cold air aloft and strong shear expected.
Precipitation chances will begin to decrease Saturday afternoon as
the system pushes east toward west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  52  66  45  /   0  30  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  55  67  46  /   0  50  70  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  43  72  44  /   0  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  73  55  75  48  /   0  20  30   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  49  71  49  /   0  20  30   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  43  60  41  /   0  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   66  50  66  42  /   0  20  30   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  63  33  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  54  67  46  /   0  30  50   0
ODESSA TX                  68  52  68  46  /   0  30  50   0
WINK TX                    72  51  71  44  /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

03/84

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 211242
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
642 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for a good deal of the
Permian Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Observations at Snyder, Odessa and Midland are indicating dense fog
with visibility of 1/4 mile.  After a few calls around the area, the
same is occurring in locations without observations.  Therefore,
will issue a Dense Fog Advisory for locations along and east of a
Seminole, Kermit, Pecos Fort Stockton and Dryden line.  The fog may
not be overwhelmingly widespread, but is very dense in the above
mentioned locations.  Expect improvement to occur around 21/16Z and
after as some heating is realized and temperature/dewpoint spreads
begin to widen.  An update will follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to include fog into the Upper Trans Pecos and northwest
Permian Basin.

DISCUSSION...

Low level moisture continues to spread northwestward into the area
this morning, with patchy fog resulting due to lowering temperature/
dewpoint spread.  A few locations will have visibility drop to 1/4
mile, but this dense fog will not be widespread enough for a Dense
Fog Advisory.  Will update the forecast to add fog further west into
the Upper Trans Pecos, and northwestward into the northwest Permian
Basin.  Think the fog/low cloud deck will begin to lift around
21/16Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

IFR ceilings will affect KMAF this morning through at least 21/16Z,
along with MVFR/IFR visibilities in fog.  Satellite trends
indicate KINK and KPEQ may also be affected by IFR ceiling/
visibility during this time.  It appears no other terminals will
be affected.  Expect VFR conditions by 21/17Z at all area
terminals, but IFR ceilings will likely affect all area TAF sites
in the 22/02Z to 22/06Z time frame and after.  Thunderstorms will
be possible tonight, especially at KMAF, but will forego inclusion
this issuance since any storms are expected to occur near the end
of the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
southern California will be the main feature of interest the
next couple of days. This system will approach the forecast area
tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late season increase in
low level moisture surge northwestward from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence associated
with the upper system should act on a unstable atmosphere and
allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing eastward moving
cold front late tonight and Saturday. The best chance of thunderstorms
(good chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin.
This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for the
longest period of time. Some of these storms could be strong,
producing hail, in the eastern Permian Basin, given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air
aloft and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will begin
to decrease Saturday afternoon as the system pushes east toward
west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  52  66  45  /   0  30  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  55  67  46  /   0  50  70  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  43  72  44  /   0  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  73  55  75  48  /   0  20  30   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  49  71  49  /   0  20  30   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  43  60  41  /   0  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   66  50  66  42  /   0  20  30   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  63  33  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  54  67  46  /   0  30  50   0
ODESSA TX                  68  52  68  46  /   0  30  50   0
WINK TX                    72  51  71  44  /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99/99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 211242
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
642 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for a good deal of the
Permian Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Observations at Snyder, Odessa and Midland are indicating dense fog
with visibility of 1/4 mile.  After a few calls around the area, the
same is occurring in locations without observations.  Therefore,
will issue a Dense Fog Advisory for locations along and east of a
Seminole, Kermit, Pecos Fort Stockton and Dryden line.  The fog may
not be overwhelmingly widespread, but is very dense in the above
mentioned locations.  Expect improvement to occur around 21/16Z and
after as some heating is realized and temperature/dewpoint spreads
begin to widen.  An update will follow shortly.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

UPDATE...

Update to include fog into the Upper Trans Pecos and northwest
Permian Basin.

DISCUSSION...

Low level moisture continues to spread northwestward into the area
this morning, with patchy fog resulting due to lowering temperature/
dewpoint spread.  A few locations will have visibility drop to 1/4
mile, but this dense fog will not be widespread enough for a Dense
Fog Advisory.  Will update the forecast to add fog further west into
the Upper Trans Pecos, and northwestward into the northwest Permian
Basin.  Think the fog/low cloud deck will begin to lift around
21/16Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

IFR ceilings will affect KMAF this morning through at least 21/16Z,
along with MVFR/IFR visibilities in fog.  Satellite trends
indicate KINK and KPEQ may also be affected by IFR ceiling/
visibility during this time.  It appears no other terminals will
be affected.  Expect VFR conditions by 21/17Z at all area
terminals, but IFR ceilings will likely affect all area TAF sites
in the 22/02Z to 22/06Z time frame and after.  Thunderstorms will
be possible tonight, especially at KMAF, but will forego inclusion
this issuance since any storms are expected to occur near the end
of the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
southern California will be the main feature of interest the
next couple of days. This system will approach the forecast area
tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late season increase in
low level moisture surge northwestward from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence associated
with the upper system should act on a unstable atmosphere and
allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing eastward moving
cold front late tonight and Saturday. The best chance of thunderstorms
(good chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin.
This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for the
longest period of time. Some of these storms could be strong,
producing hail, in the eastern Permian Basin, given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air
aloft and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will begin
to decrease Saturday afternoon as the system pushes east toward
west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  52  66  45  /   0  30  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  55  67  46  /   0  50  70  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  43  72  44  /   0  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  73  55  75  48  /   0  20  30   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  49  71  49  /   0  20  30   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  43  60  41  /   0  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   66  50  66  42  /   0  20  30   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  63  33  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  54  67  46  /   0  30  50   0
ODESSA TX                  68  52  68  46  /   0  30  50   0
WINK TX                    72  51  71  44  /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...DENSE FOG ADVISORY until 10 AM CST this morning FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES... Andrews...Borden...Crane...Dawson...
     Ector...Glasscock...Howard...Loving...Martin...Midland...
     Mitchell...Pecos...Reagan...Reeves County and Upper Trans
     Pecos...Scurry...Terrell...Upton...Ward...Winkler.


&&

$$

99/99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 211122
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
522 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.UPDATE...

Update to include fog into the Upper Trans Pecos and northwest
Permian Basin.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Low level moisture continues to spread northwestward into the area
this morning, with patchy fog resulting due to lowering temperature/
dewpoint spread.  A few locations will have visibility drop to 1/4
mile, but this dense fog will not be widespread enough for a Dense
Fog Advisory.  Will update the forecast to add fog further west into
the Upper Trans Pecos, and northwestward into the northwest Permian
Basin.  Think the fog/low cloud deck will begin to lift around
21/16Z.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

AVIATION...

IFR ceilings will affect KMAF this morning through at least 21/16Z,
along with MVFR/IFR visibilities in fog.  Satellite trends
indicate KINK and KPEQ may also be affected by IFR ceiling/
visibility during this time.  It appears no other terminals will
be affected.  Expect VFR conditions by 21/17Z at all area
terminals, but IFR ceilings will likely affect all area TAF sites
in the 22/02Z to 22/06Z time frame and after.  Thunderstorms will
be possible tonight, especially at KMAF, but will forego inclusion
this issuance since any storms are expected to occur near the end
of the period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
southern California will be the main feature of interest the
next couple of days. This system will approach the forecast area
tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late season increase in
low level moisture surge northwestward from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence associated
with the upper system should act on a unstable atmosphere and
allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing eastward moving
cold front late tonight and Saturday. The best chance of thunderstorms
(good chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin.
This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for the
longest period of time. Some of these storms could be strong,
producing hail, in the eastern Permian Basin, given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air
aloft and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will begin
to decrease Saturday afternoon as the system pushes east toward
west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  52  66  45  /   0  30  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  55  67  46  /   0  50  70  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  43  72  44  /   0  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  73  55  75  48  /   0  20  30   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  49  71  49  /   0  20  30   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  43  60  41  /   0  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   66  50  66  42  /   0  20  30   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  63  33  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  54  67  46  /   0  30  50   0
ODESSA TX                  68  52  68  46  /   0  30  50   0
WINK TX                    72  51  71  44  /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99/99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 211106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
506 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR ceilings will affect KMAF this morning through at least 21/16Z,
along with MVFR/IFR visibilities in fog.  Satellite trends
indicate KINK and KPEQ may also be affected by IFR ceiling/
visibility during this time.  It appears no other terminals will
be affected.  Expect VFR conditions by 21/17Z at all area
terminals, but IFR ceilings will likely affect all area TAF sites
in the 22/02Z to 22/06Z time frame and after.  Thunderstorms will
be possible tonight, especially at KMAF, but will forego inclusion
this issuance since any storms are expected to occur near the end
of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
southern California will be the main feature of interest the
next couple of days. This system will approach the forecast area
tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late season increase in
low level moisture surge northwestward from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence associated
with the upper system should act on a unstable atmosphere and
allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing eastward moving
cold front late tonight and Saturday. The best chance of thunderstorms
(good chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin.
This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for the
longest period of time. Some of these storms could be strong,
producing hail, in the eastern Permian Basin, given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air
aloft and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will begin
to decrease Saturday afternoon as the system pushes east toward
west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  52  66  45  /   0  30  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  55  67  46  /   0  50  70  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  43  72  44  /   0  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  73  55  75  48  /   0  20  30   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  49  71  49  /   0  20  30   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  43  60  41  /   0  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   66  50  66  42  /   0  20  30   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  63  33  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  54  67  46  /   0  30  50   0
ODESSA TX                  68  52  68  46  /   0  30  50   0
WINK TX                    72  51  71  44  /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 211106
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
506 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR ceilings will affect KMAF this morning through at least 21/16Z,
along with MVFR/IFR visibilities in fog.  Satellite trends
indicate KINK and KPEQ may also be affected by IFR ceiling/
visibility during this time.  It appears no other terminals will
be affected.  Expect VFR conditions by 21/17Z at all area
terminals, but IFR ceilings will likely affect all area TAF sites
in the 22/02Z to 22/06Z time frame and after.  Thunderstorms will
be possible tonight, especially at KMAF, but will forego inclusion
this issuance since any storms are expected to occur near the end
of the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
southern California will be the main feature of interest the
next couple of days. This system will approach the forecast area
tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late season increase in
low level moisture surge northwestward from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence associated
with the upper system should act on a unstable atmosphere and
allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing eastward moving
cold front late tonight and Saturday. The best chance of thunderstorms
(good chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin.
This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for the
longest period of time. Some of these storms could be strong,
producing hail, in the eastern Permian Basin, given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air
aloft and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will begin
to decrease Saturday afternoon as the system pushes east toward
west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  52  66  45  /   0  30  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  55  67  46  /   0  50  70  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  43  72  44  /   0  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  73  55  75  48  /   0  20  30   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  49  71  49  /   0  20  30   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  43  60  41  /   0  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   66  50  66  42  /   0  20  30   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  63  33  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  54  67  46  /   0  30  50   0
ODESSA TX                  68  52  68  46  /   0  30  50   0
WINK TX                    72  51  71  44  /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 210953
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
southern California will be the main feature of interest the
next couple of days. This system will approach the forecast area
tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late season increase in
low level moisture surge northwestward from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence associated
with the upper system should act on a unstable atmosphere and
allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing eastward moving
cold front late tonight and Saturday. The best chance of thunderstorms
(good chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin.
This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for the
longest period of time. Some of these storms could be strong,
producing hail, in the eastern Permian Basin, given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air
aloft and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will begin
to decrease Saturday afternoon as the system pushes east toward
west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  52  66  45  /   0  30  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  55  67  46  /   0  50  70  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  43  72  44  /   0  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  73  55  75  48  /   0  20  30   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  49  71  49  /   0  20  30   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  43  60  41  /   0  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   66  50  66  42  /   0  20  30   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  63  33  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  54  67  46  /   0  30  50   0
ODESSA TX                  68  52  68  46  /   0  30  50   0
WINK TX                    72  51  71  44  /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 210953
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
353 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A potent southern stream upper level low pressure area across
southern California will be the main feature of interest the
next couple of days. This system will approach the forecast area
tonight and Saturday allowing an anomalous late season increase in
low level moisture surge northwestward from the western Gulf of
Mexico. Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence associated
with the upper system should act on a unstable atmosphere and
allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing eastward moving
cold front late tonight and Saturday. The best chance of thunderstorms
(good chance to likely) will be across the eastern Permian Basin.
This area is expected to be in the deepest moisture for the
longest period of time. Some of these storms could be strong,
producing hail, in the eastern Permian Basin, given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg, very steep mid level lapse rates, cold air
aloft and strong shear expected. Precipitation chances will begin
to decrease Saturday afternoon as the system pushes east toward
west central Texas.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Thursday with generally at or below
normal temperatures expected next Monday through Thursday. Strong
mid level flow will be capable of producing high winds in the
mountains particularly across the Davis Mountains above 6000 feet
Sunday and or Monday. Later shifts will need to monitor.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 67  52  66  45  /   0  30  40   0
BIG SPRING TX              69  55  67  46  /   0  50  70  10
CARLSBAD NM                70  43  72  44  /   0  20  10   0
DRYDEN TX                  73  55  75  48  /   0  20  30   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           72  49  71  49  /   0  20  30   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          65  43  60  41  /   0  20  10   0
HOBBS NM                   66  50  66  42  /   0  20  30   0
MARFA TX                   68  37  63  33  /   0  10  10   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    69  54  67  46  /   0  30  50   0
ODESSA TX                  68  52  68  46  /   0  30  50   0
WINK TX                    72  51  71  44  /   0  20  30   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 210442
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1032 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light and variable tonight into tomorrow morning
before coming around to the south to southeast Friday afternoon.
There is a slight chance of low ceilings and visibilities around 12z
for MAF but do not have much confidence in this so took it out of
the TAF for now.  Low ceilings and visibilities will again be
possible areawide beginning around 03z Saturday as low-level
moisture increases.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A seasonably cool night is on tap tonight, with lows a degree or two
warmer than last night as zonal flow continues over the area.  A
return to southwesterly flow aloft as well as southerly flow at the
surface will see temperatures slightly above normal once again on
Friday, though warming should be limited due to increasing
cloudiness in response to moisture return occurring over the region.
The focus continues to be on the upper level system which will bring
showers and thunderstorms to Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
late Friday night and early Saturday.  Current water vapor imagery
shows this system just reaching the shores of the Pacific Northwest.
Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding the
evolution and timing of this system, though the timing has slowed
down a bit from previous model runs. However, it still appears that
the system will remain a progressive open wave, and the associated
eastward-moving cold front and precipitation will impact the area
late Friday night and exit the area to the east by late Saturday
morning/early Saturday afternoon.

Currently, the area of greatest moisture return looks to be roughly
the northeastern half of the forecast area, and thus, this area
would see the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as
the system moves through. The area will be beneath the left exit
region of a 300mb jet as it rounds the base of the trough on Friday
night, and combined with modest 500mb height falls, as well as
steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air aloft and the
presence of elevated instability, thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the Pacific front.  The GFS is a bit more
bullish with the amount of elevated instability present on Friday
night and early Saturday, whereas the NAM has cut back on the amount
of instability present.  However, stronger storms, especially along
the front, will have the potential to produce large hail. Other
threats with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief
downpours, and frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, winds will shift to the west and northwest
flow aloft will return, paving the way for a dry forecast through
Thanksgiving Day.  Sunday through Monday look to be breezy in the
wake of the departing trough and a second weak cold front progged
to move through the area late Sunday/early Monday, with high winds
possible over higher terrain. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will
be below normal, with highs only reaching the mid 50s to low 60s,
followed by a brief warm up on Wednesday. Model solutions diverge
by midweek, with the ECMWF indicating the potential for a big cool
down on Thanksgiving Day. Given uncertainties, have cooled temps
for Thursday slightly, but have not made any drastic changes
at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland













000
FXUS64 KMAF 210442
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1032 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 06z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light and variable tonight into tomorrow morning
before coming around to the south to southeast Friday afternoon.
There is a slight chance of low ceilings and visibilities around 12z
for MAF but do not have much confidence in this so took it out of
the TAF for now.  Low ceilings and visibilities will again be
possible areawide beginning around 03z Saturday as low-level
moisture increases.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A seasonably cool night is on tap tonight, with lows a degree or two
warmer than last night as zonal flow continues over the area.  A
return to southwesterly flow aloft as well as southerly flow at the
surface will see temperatures slightly above normal once again on
Friday, though warming should be limited due to increasing
cloudiness in response to moisture return occurring over the region.
The focus continues to be on the upper level system which will bring
showers and thunderstorms to Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
late Friday night and early Saturday.  Current water vapor imagery
shows this system just reaching the shores of the Pacific Northwest.
Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding the
evolution and timing of this system, though the timing has slowed
down a bit from previous model runs. However, it still appears that
the system will remain a progressive open wave, and the associated
eastward-moving cold front and precipitation will impact the area
late Friday night and exit the area to the east by late Saturday
morning/early Saturday afternoon.

Currently, the area of greatest moisture return looks to be roughly
the northeastern half of the forecast area, and thus, this area
would see the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as
the system moves through. The area will be beneath the left exit
region of a 300mb jet as it rounds the base of the trough on Friday
night, and combined with modest 500mb height falls, as well as
steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air aloft and the
presence of elevated instability, thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the Pacific front.  The GFS is a bit more
bullish with the amount of elevated instability present on Friday
night and early Saturday, whereas the NAM has cut back on the amount
of instability present.  However, stronger storms, especially along
the front, will have the potential to produce large hail. Other
threats with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief
downpours, and frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, winds will shift to the west and northwest
flow aloft will return, paving the way for a dry forecast through
Thanksgiving Day.  Sunday through Monday look to be breezy in the
wake of the departing trough and a second weak cold front progged
to move through the area late Sunday/early Monday, with high winds
possible over higher terrain. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will
be below normal, with highs only reaching the mid 50s to low 60s,
followed by a brief warm up on Wednesday. Model solutions diverge
by midweek, with the ECMWF indicating the potential for a big cool
down on Thanksgiving Day. Given uncertainties, have cooled temps
for Thursday slightly, but have not made any drastic changes
at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland












000
FXUS64 KMAF 202315
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
506 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light and somewhat variable through the overnight
period into tomorrow morning.  South to southeast winds will prevail
Friday afternoon.  There is a slight chance of low ceilings and
visibilities for MAF during the overnight period into Friday
morning.  Added in a TEMPO group for now but the time of low
ceilings/visibilities may need to be earlier based on some of the
model data.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A seasonably cool night is on tap tonight, with lows a degree or two
warmer than last night as zonal flow continues over the area.  A
return to southwesterly flow aloft as well as southerly flow at the
surface will see temperatures slightly above normal once again on
Friday, though warming should be limited due to increasing
cloudiness in response to moisture return occurring over the region.
The focus continues to be on the upper level system which will bring
showers and thunderstorms to Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
late Friday night and early Saturday.  Current water vapor imagery
shows this system just reaching the shores of the Pacific Northwest.
Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding the
evolution and timing of this system, though the timing has slowed
down a bit from previous model runs. However, it still appears that
the system will remain a progressive open wave, and the associated
eastward-moving cold front and precipitation will impact the area
late Friday night and exit the area to the east by late Saturday
morning/early Saturday afternoon.

Currently, the area of greatest moisture return looks to be roughly
the northeastern half of the forecast area, and thus, this area
would see the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as
the system moves through. The area will be beneath the left exit
region of a 300mb jet as it rounds the base of the trough on Friday
night, and combined with modest 500mb height falls, as well as
steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air aloft and the
presence of elevated instability, thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the Pacific front.  The GFS is a bit more
bullish with the amount of elevated instability present on Friday
night and early Saturday, whereas the NAM has cut back on the amount
of instability present.  However, stronger storms, especially along
the front, will have the potential to produce large hail. Other
threats with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief
downpours, and frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, winds will shift to the west and northwest
flow aloft will return, paving the way for a dry forecast through
Thanksgiving Day.  Sunday through Monday look to be breezy in the
wake of the departing trough and a second weak cold front progged
to move through the area late Sunday/early Monday, with high winds
possible over higher terrain. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will
be below normal, with highs only reaching the mid 50s to low 60s,
followed by a brief warm up on Wednesday. Model solutions diverge
by midweek, with the ECMWF indicating the potential for a big cool
down on Thanksgiving Day. Given uncertainties, have cooled temps
for Thursday slightly, but have not made any drastic changes
at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland










000
FXUS64 KMAF 202315
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
506 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See 00z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Winds will be light and somewhat variable through the overnight
period into tomorrow morning.  South to southeast winds will prevail
Friday afternoon.  There is a slight chance of low ceilings and
visibilities for MAF during the overnight period into Friday
morning.  Added in a TEMPO group for now but the time of low
ceilings/visibilities may need to be earlier based on some of the
model data.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A seasonably cool night is on tap tonight, with lows a degree or two
warmer than last night as zonal flow continues over the area.  A
return to southwesterly flow aloft as well as southerly flow at the
surface will see temperatures slightly above normal once again on
Friday, though warming should be limited due to increasing
cloudiness in response to moisture return occurring over the region.
The focus continues to be on the upper level system which will bring
showers and thunderstorms to Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
late Friday night and early Saturday.  Current water vapor imagery
shows this system just reaching the shores of the Pacific Northwest.
Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding the
evolution and timing of this system, though the timing has slowed
down a bit from previous model runs. However, it still appears that
the system will remain a progressive open wave, and the associated
eastward-moving cold front and precipitation will impact the area
late Friday night and exit the area to the east by late Saturday
morning/early Saturday afternoon.

Currently, the area of greatest moisture return looks to be roughly
the northeastern half of the forecast area, and thus, this area
would see the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as
the system moves through. The area will be beneath the left exit
region of a 300mb jet as it rounds the base of the trough on Friday
night, and combined with modest 500mb height falls, as well as
steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air aloft and the
presence of elevated instability, thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the Pacific front.  The GFS is a bit more
bullish with the amount of elevated instability present on Friday
night and early Saturday, whereas the NAM has cut back on the amount
of instability present.  However, stronger storms, especially along
the front, will have the potential to produce large hail. Other
threats with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief
downpours, and frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, winds will shift to the west and northwest
flow aloft will return, paving the way for a dry forecast through
Thanksgiving Day.  Sunday through Monday look to be breezy in the
wake of the departing trough and a second weak cold front progged
to move through the area late Sunday/early Monday, with high winds
possible over higher terrain. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will
be below normal, with highs only reaching the mid 50s to low 60s,
followed by a brief warm up on Wednesday. Model solutions diverge
by midweek, with the ECMWF indicating the potential for a big cool
down on Thanksgiving Day. Given uncertainties, have cooled temps
for Thursday slightly, but have not made any drastic changes
at this time.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland











000
FXUS64 KMAF 202053
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
253 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A seasonably cool night is on tap tonight, with lows a degree or two
warmer than last night as zonal flow continues over the area.  A
return to southwesterly flow aloft as well as southerly flow at the
surface will see temperatures slightly above normal once again on
Friday, though warming should be limited due to increasing
cloudiness in response to moisture return occurring over the region.
The focus continues to be on the upper level system which will bring
showers and thunderstorms to Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
late Friday night and early Saturday.  Current water vapor imagery
shows this system just reaching the shores of the Pacific Northwest.
Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding the
evolution and timing of this system, though the timing has slowed
down a bit from previous model runs. However, it still appears that
the system will remain a progressive open wave, and the associated
eastward-moving cold front and precipitation will impact the area
late Friday night and exit the area to the east by late Saturday
morning/early Saturday afternoon.

Currently, the area of greatest moisture return looks to be roughly
the northeastern half of the forecast area, and thus, this area
would see the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as
the system moves through. The area will be beneath the left exit
region of a 300mb jet as it rounds the base of the trough on Friday
night, and combined with modest 500mb height falls, as well as
steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air aloft and the
presence of elevated instability, thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the Pacific front.  The GFS is a bit more
bullish with the amount of elevated instability present on Friday
night and early Saturday, whereas the NAM has cut back on the amount
of instability present.  However, stronger storms, especially along
the front, will have the potential to produce large hail. Other
threats with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief
downpours, and frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, winds will shift to the west and northwest
flow aloft will return, paving the way for a dry forecast through
Thanksgiving Day.  Sunday through Monday look to be breezy in the
wake of the departing trough and a second weak cold front progged
to move through the area late Sunday/early Monday, with high winds
possible over higher terrain. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will
be below normal, with highs only reaching the mid 50s to low 60s,
followed by a brief warm up on Wednesday. Model solutions diverge
by midweek, with the ECMWF indicating the potential for a big cool
down on Thanksgiving Day. Given uncertainties, have cooled temps
for Thursday slightly, but have not made any drastic changes
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  68  48  66  /   0  10  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              41  69  53  67  /   0  10  60  70
CARLSBAD NM                35  71  43  71  /   0   0  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  46  71  53  75  /  10  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           44  73  49  71  /   0   0  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  66  43  60  /   0   0  30  10
HOBBS NM                   34  67  44  66  /   0   0  30  30
MARFA TX                   30  68  34  63  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  70  52  67  /   0  10  50  50
ODESSA TX                  39  69  52  68  /   0  10  50  50
WINK TX                    39  73  47  71  /   0   0  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/84

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 202053
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
253 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A seasonably cool night is on tap tonight, with lows a degree or two
warmer than last night as zonal flow continues over the area.  A
return to southwesterly flow aloft as well as southerly flow at the
surface will see temperatures slightly above normal once again on
Friday, though warming should be limited due to increasing
cloudiness in response to moisture return occurring over the region.
The focus continues to be on the upper level system which will bring
showers and thunderstorms to Southeast New Mexico and West Texas
late Friday night and early Saturday.  Current water vapor imagery
shows this system just reaching the shores of the Pacific Northwest.
Model guidance continues to be in good agreement regarding the
evolution and timing of this system, though the timing has slowed
down a bit from previous model runs. However, it still appears that
the system will remain a progressive open wave, and the associated
eastward-moving cold front and precipitation will impact the area
late Friday night and exit the area to the east by late Saturday
morning/early Saturday afternoon.

Currently, the area of greatest moisture return looks to be roughly
the northeastern half of the forecast area, and thus, this area
would see the most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity as
the system moves through. The area will be beneath the left exit
region of a 300mb jet as it rounds the base of the trough on Friday
night, and combined with modest 500mb height falls, as well as
steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air aloft and the
presence of elevated instability, thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the Pacific front.  The GFS is a bit more
bullish with the amount of elevated instability present on Friday
night and early Saturday, whereas the NAM has cut back on the amount
of instability present.  However, stronger storms, especially along
the front, will have the potential to produce large hail. Other
threats with any storms that develop are gusty winds, brief
downpours, and frequent lightning.

By Saturday afternoon, winds will shift to the west and northwest
flow aloft will return, paving the way for a dry forecast through
Thanksgiving Day.  Sunday through Monday look to be breezy in the
wake of the departing trough and a second weak cold front progged
to move through the area late Sunday/early Monday, with high winds
possible over higher terrain. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will
be below normal, with highs only reaching the mid 50s to low 60s,
followed by a brief warm up on Wednesday. Model solutions diverge
by midweek, with the ECMWF indicating the potential for a big cool
down on Thanksgiving Day. Given uncertainties, have cooled temps
for Thursday slightly, but have not made any drastic changes
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  68  48  66  /   0  10  40  40
BIG SPRING TX              41  69  53  67  /   0  10  60  70
CARLSBAD NM                35  71  43  71  /   0   0  30  10
DRYDEN TX                  46  71  53  75  /  10  10  20  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           44  73  49  71  /   0   0  30  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  66  43  60  /   0   0  30  10
HOBBS NM                   34  67  44  66  /   0   0  30  30
MARFA TX                   30  68  34  63  /   0   0  10  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  70  52  67  /   0  10  50  50
ODESSA TX                  39  69  52  68  /   0  10  50  50
WINK TX                    39  73  47  71  /   0   0  30  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

72/84

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 201730
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1130 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR. Surface trough over the area will result in a W to SW wind
for local TAF sites.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The warming trend will continue today as zonal flow aloft
continues above a surface lee trough. Under mostly sunny skies
temperatures will climb several degrees above normal. A quiet
night is expected tonight with the zonal flow and surface lee
trough continuing with temperatures dropping to near normal values
under clear to partly cloudy skies. The flow aloft is expected to
turn southwesterly Friday ahead of a potent southern stream storm
system approaching from the desert southwest. Temperatures will
continue several degrees above normal with surface low pressure
developing over the area and Gulf moisture continuing to
increase.

The aforementioned potent southern stream system will approach
the forecast area Friday night and Saturday allowing an anomalous
late season increase in low level moisture from the western Gulf
of Mexico, Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence
associated with the upper system should act on a unstable
atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing
eastward moving cold front. Some of these storms will be strong to
possibly severe in the eastern Permian Basin given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg and strong shear expected.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Wednesday with below normal temperatures
expected next Monday through Wednesday. The strong mid level flow
will be capable of producing strong winds in the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains Monday through Tuesday. Later shifts will need to
monitor.

More cold air could spill back into the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 201107
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
507 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR ceilings over west central Texas should stay east of all west
Texas terminals this morning.  Therefore, VFR conditions will
prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The warming trend will continue today as zonal flow aloft
continues above a surface lee trough. Under mostly sunny skies
temperatures will climb several degrees above normal. A quiet
night is expected tonight with the zonal flow and surface lee
trough continuing with temperatures dropping to near normal values
under clear to partly cloudy skies. The flow aloft is expected to
turn southwesterly Friday ahead of a potent southern stream storm
system approaching from the desert southwest. Temperatures will
continue several degrees above normal with surface low pressure
developing over the area and Gulf moisture continuing to
increase.

The aforementioned potent southern stream system will approach
the forecast area Friday night and Saturday allowing an anomalous
late season increase in low level moisture from the western Gulf
of Mexico, Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence
associated with the upper system should act on a unstable
atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing
eastward moving cold front. Some of these storms will be strong to
possibly severe in the eastern Permian Basin given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg and strong shear expected.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Wednesday with below normal temperatures
expected next Monday through Wednesday. The strong mid level flow
will be capable of producing strong winds in the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains Monday through Tuesday. Later shifts will need to
monitor.

More cold air could spill back into the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  36  68  45  /   0   0   0  40
BIG SPRING TX              70  40  68  50  /   0   0  10  60
CARLSBAD NM                68  34  69  41  /   0   0   0  30
DRYDEN TX                  69  47  73  53  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  43  73  48  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  42  66  40  /   0   0   0  30
HOBBS NM                   67  33  66  42  /   0   0   0  30
MARFA TX                   67  29  68  35  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  37  70  48  /   0   0   0  50
ODESSA TX                  69  39  70  48  /   0   0   0  40
WINK TX                    72  39  73  46  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland






000
FXUS64 KMAF 201107
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
507 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

IFR ceilings over west central Texas should stay east of all west
Texas terminals this morning.  Therefore, VFR conditions will
prevail areawide during the next 24 hours.  67

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
The warming trend will continue today as zonal flow aloft
continues above a surface lee trough. Under mostly sunny skies
temperatures will climb several degrees above normal. A quiet
night is expected tonight with the zonal flow and surface lee
trough continuing with temperatures dropping to near normal values
under clear to partly cloudy skies. The flow aloft is expected to
turn southwesterly Friday ahead of a potent southern stream storm
system approaching from the desert southwest. Temperatures will
continue several degrees above normal with surface low pressure
developing over the area and Gulf moisture continuing to
increase.

The aforementioned potent southern stream system will approach
the forecast area Friday night and Saturday allowing an anomalous
late season increase in low level moisture from the western Gulf
of Mexico, Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence
associated with the upper system should act on a unstable
atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing
eastward moving cold front. Some of these storms will be strong to
possibly severe in the eastern Permian Basin given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg and strong shear expected.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Wednesday with below normal temperatures
expected next Monday through Wednesday. The strong mid level flow
will be capable of producing strong winds in the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains Monday through Tuesday. Later shifts will need to
monitor.

More cold air could spill back into the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  36  68  45  /   0   0   0  40
BIG SPRING TX              70  40  68  50  /   0   0  10  60
CARLSBAD NM                68  34  69  41  /   0   0   0  30
DRYDEN TX                  69  47  73  53  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  43  73  48  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  42  66  40  /   0   0   0  30
HOBBS NM                   67  33  66  42  /   0   0   0  30
MARFA TX                   67  29  68  35  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  37  70  48  /   0   0   0  50
ODESSA TX                  69  39  70  48  /   0   0   0  40
WINK TX                    72  39  73  46  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 201014
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
414 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The warming trend will continue today as zonal flow aloft
continues above a surface lee trough. Under mostly sunny skies
temperatures will climb several degrees above normal. A quiet
night is expected tonight with the zonal flow and surface lee
trough continuing with temperatures dropping to near normal values
under clear to partly cloudy skies. The flow aloft is expected to
turn southwesterly Friday ahead of a potent southern stream storm
system approaching from the desert southwest. Temperatures will
continue several degrees above normal with surface low pressure
developing over the area and Gulf moisture continuing to
increase.

The aforementioned potent southern stream system will approach
the forecast area Friday night and Saturday allowing an anomalous
late season increase in low level moisture from the western Gulf
of Mexico, Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence
associated with the upper system should act on a unstable
atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing
eastward moving cold front. Some of these storms will be strong to
possibly severe in the eastern Permian Basin given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg and strong shear expected.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Wednesday with below normal temperatures
expected next Monday through Wednesday. The strong mid level flow
will be capable of producing strong winds in the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains Monday through Tuesday. Later shifts will need to
monitor.

More cold air could spill back into the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  36  68  45  /   0   0   0  40
BIG SPRING TX              70  40  68  50  /   0   0  10  60
CARLSBAD NM                68  34  69  41  /   0   0   0  30
DRYDEN TX                  69  47  73  53  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  43  73  48  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  42  66  40  /   0   0   0  30
HOBBS NM                   67  33  66  42  /   0   0   0  30
MARFA TX                   67  29  68  35  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  37  70  48  /   0   0   0  50
ODESSA TX                  69  39  70  48  /   0   0   0  40
WINK TX                    72  39  73  46  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 201014
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
414 AM CST Thu Nov 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
The warming trend will continue today as zonal flow aloft
continues above a surface lee trough. Under mostly sunny skies
temperatures will climb several degrees above normal. A quiet
night is expected tonight with the zonal flow and surface lee
trough continuing with temperatures dropping to near normal values
under clear to partly cloudy skies. The flow aloft is expected to
turn southwesterly Friday ahead of a potent southern stream storm
system approaching from the desert southwest. Temperatures will
continue several degrees above normal with surface low pressure
developing over the area and Gulf moisture continuing to
increase.

The aforementioned potent southern stream system will approach
the forecast area Friday night and Saturday allowing an anomalous
late season increase in low level moisture from the western Gulf
of Mexico, Strong forcing and impressive upper divergence
associated with the upper system should act on a unstable
atmosphere and allow thunderstorms to develop along an advancing
eastward moving cold front. Some of these storms will be strong to
possibly severe in the eastern Permian Basin given elevated capes
of over 1000 j/kg and strong shear expected.

Dry and swift northwesterly flow aloft is expected behind this
system Sunday through next Wednesday with below normal temperatures
expected next Monday through Wednesday. The strong mid level flow
will be capable of producing strong winds in the Guadalupe and or
Davis Mountains Monday through Tuesday. Later shifts will need to
monitor.

More cold air could spill back into the area by Thanksgiving.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 69  36  68  45  /   0   0   0  40
BIG SPRING TX              70  40  68  50  /   0   0  10  60
CARLSBAD NM                68  34  69  41  /   0   0   0  30
DRYDEN TX                  69  47  73  53  /   0  10  10  20
FORT STOCKTON TX           74  43  73  48  /   0   0   0  20
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  42  66  40  /   0   0   0  30
HOBBS NM                   67  33  66  42  /   0   0   0  30
MARFA TX                   67  29  68  35  /   0   0   0  10
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    70  37  70  48  /   0   0   0  50
ODESSA TX                  69  39  70  48  /   0   0   0  40
WINK TX                    72  39  73  46  /   0   0   0  30

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/12

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 200413
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1013 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours, w/light S-SW sfc flow.
NAM Buffer soundings still persistent in developing a VLIFR stratus
deck at KPEQ for a few hours around sunrise but, absent this in any
other models, we`ll leave things SCT attm.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The warming trend will continue Thursday, as zonal flow aloft and
850mb thermal ridging will allow temperatures to rise to slightly
above normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Overnight low
temperatures will be a bit milder as well, in the 30s and low to mid
40s into the weekend.  The main focus of the forecast continues to
be a low pressure system progged to come ashore over the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday, which will deepen considerably as it shifts
eastward across the Rockies. Ahead of the low and accompanying
trough, a return to southwest flow aloft and southerly return flow
at the surface by Friday morning will aid in moisture return to the
region.  This will serve to keep temperatures seasonable into the
weekend, though increasing cloudcover is expected through the day on
Friday.  Models continue to be in good agreement that the system
will move through Southeast New Mexico and West Texas late Friday
night and early Saturday as a progressive open wave, with the
deepest part of the trough moving through Big Bend before lifting
toward central Texas Saturday afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday night, mainly over
the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, aided by the aforementioned
moisture return as well as supportive dynamics of the trough.  Model
soundings continue to indicate the presence of elevated instability
Friday night across the area, and given modest 500mb height falls as
well as steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air
aloft, some of the stronger storms could produce large hail and
gusty winds. A cold front will move through the area late Saturday
morning, and subsidence behind the trough/front will serve to
shift convection east of the area. While temperatures are not
expected to drop too much, it does look like Sunday could be quite
breezy thanks to westerly winds behind the departing trough.

The remainder of the extended forecast looks to remain dry, as the
region will once again be under the influence of northwest flow
aloft.  Another cold front is progged to move through the area
Sunday night/Monday, which will result in slightly below normal
temperatures through the first half of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 200413
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1013 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

DISCUSSION...

See 06Z Aviation Discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours, w/light S-SW sfc flow.
NAM Buffer soundings still persistent in developing a VLIFR stratus
deck at KPEQ for a few hours around sunrise but, absent this in any
other models, we`ll leave things SCT attm.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The warming trend will continue Thursday, as zonal flow aloft and
850mb thermal ridging will allow temperatures to rise to slightly
above normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Overnight low
temperatures will be a bit milder as well, in the 30s and low to mid
40s into the weekend.  The main focus of the forecast continues to
be a low pressure system progged to come ashore over the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday, which will deepen considerably as it shifts
eastward across the Rockies. Ahead of the low and accompanying
trough, a return to southwest flow aloft and southerly return flow
at the surface by Friday morning will aid in moisture return to the
region.  This will serve to keep temperatures seasonable into the
weekend, though increasing cloudcover is expected through the day on
Friday.  Models continue to be in good agreement that the system
will move through Southeast New Mexico and West Texas late Friday
night and early Saturday as a progressive open wave, with the
deepest part of the trough moving through Big Bend before lifting
toward central Texas Saturday afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday night, mainly over
the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, aided by the aforementioned
moisture return as well as supportive dynamics of the trough.  Model
soundings continue to indicate the presence of elevated instability
Friday night across the area, and given modest 500mb height falls as
well as steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air
aloft, some of the stronger storms could produce large hail and
gusty winds. A cold front will move through the area late Saturday
morning, and subsidence behind the trough/front will serve to
shift convection east of the area. While temperatures are not
expected to drop too much, it does look like Sunday could be quite
breezy thanks to westerly winds behind the departing trough.

The remainder of the extended forecast looks to remain dry, as the
region will once again be under the influence of northwest flow
aloft.  Another cold front is progged to move through the area
Sunday night/Monday, which will result in slightly below normal
temperatures through the first half of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 192231
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
431 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours, w/sfc flow veering
slightly to SW most terminals. NAM Buffer soundings develop a
VLIFR stratus deck at KPEQ for a few hours around sunrise, but
this is absent in other models, so we won`t take the bait attm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The warming trend will continue Thursday, as zonal flow aloft and
850mb thermal ridging will allow temperatures to rise to slightly
above normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Overnight low
temperatures will be a bit milder as well, in the 30s and low to mid
40s into the weekend.  The main focus of the forecast continues to
be a low pressure system progged to come ashore over the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday, which will deepen considerably as it shifts
eastward across the Rockies. Ahead of the low and accompanying
trough, a return to southwest flow aloft and southerly return flow
at the surface by Friday morning will aid in moisture return to the
region.  This will serve to keep temperatures seasonable into the
weekend, though increasing cloudcover is expected through the day on
Friday.  Models continue to be in good agreement that the system
will move through Southeast New Mexico and West Texas late Friday
night and early Saturday as a progressive open wave, with the
deepest part of the trough moving through Big Bend before lifting
toward central Texas Saturday afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday night, mainly over
the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, aided by the aforementioned
moisture return as well as supportive dynamics of the trough.  Model
soundings continue to indicate the presence of elevated instability
Friday night across the area, and given modest 500mb height falls as
well as steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air
aloft, some of the stronger storms could produce large hail and
gusty winds. A cold front will move through the area late Saturday
morning, and subsidence behind the trough/front will serve to
shift convection east of the area. While temperatures are not
expected to drop too much, it does look like Sunday could be quite
breezy thanks to westerly winds behind the departing trough.

The remainder of the extended forecast looks to remain dry, as the
region will once again be under the influence of northwest flow
aloft.  Another cold front is progged to move through the area
Sunday night/Monday, which will result in slightly below normal
temperatures through the first half of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 192231
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
431 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions should prevail next 24 hours, w/sfc flow veering
slightly to SW most terminals. NAM Buffer soundings develop a
VLIFR stratus deck at KPEQ for a few hours around sunrise, but
this is absent in other models, so we won`t take the bait attm.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 252 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

The warming trend will continue Thursday, as zonal flow aloft and
850mb thermal ridging will allow temperatures to rise to slightly
above normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Overnight low
temperatures will be a bit milder as well, in the 30s and low to mid
40s into the weekend.  The main focus of the forecast continues to
be a low pressure system progged to come ashore over the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday, which will deepen considerably as it shifts
eastward across the Rockies. Ahead of the low and accompanying
trough, a return to southwest flow aloft and southerly return flow
at the surface by Friday morning will aid in moisture return to the
region.  This will serve to keep temperatures seasonable into the
weekend, though increasing cloudcover is expected through the day on
Friday.  Models continue to be in good agreement that the system
will move through Southeast New Mexico and West Texas late Friday
night and early Saturday as a progressive open wave, with the
deepest part of the trough moving through Big Bend before lifting
toward central Texas Saturday afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday night, mainly over
the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, aided by the aforementioned
moisture return as well as supportive dynamics of the trough.  Model
soundings continue to indicate the presence of elevated instability
Friday night across the area, and given modest 500mb height falls as
well as steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air
aloft, some of the stronger storms could produce large hail and
gusty winds. A cold front will move through the area late Saturday
morning, and subsidence behind the trough/front will serve to
shift convection east of the area. While temperatures are not
expected to drop too much, it does look like Sunday could be quite
breezy thanks to westerly winds behind the departing trough.

The remainder of the extended forecast looks to remain dry, as the
region will once again be under the influence of northwest flow
aloft.  Another cold front is progged to move through the area
Sunday night/Monday, which will result in slightly below normal
temperatures through the first half of next week.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 192052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
252 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The warming trend will continue Thursday, as zonal flow aloft and
850mb thermal ridging will allow temperatures to rise to slightly
above normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Overnight low
temperatures will be a bit milder as well, in the 30s and low to mid
40s into the weekend.  The main focus of the forecast continues to
be a low pressure system progged to come ashore over the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday, which will deepen considerably as it shifts
eastward across the Rockies. Ahead of the low and accompanying
trough, a return to southwest flow aloft and southerly return flow
at the surface by Friday morning will aid in moisture return to the
region.  This will serve to keep temperatures seasonable into the
weekend, though increasing cloudcover is expected through the day on
Friday.  Models continue to be in good agreement that the system
will move through Southeast New Mexico and West Texas late Friday
night and early Saturday as a progressive open wave, with the
deepest part of the trough moving through Big Bend before lifting
toward central Texas Saturday afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday night, mainly over
the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, aided by the aforementioned
moisture return as well as supportive dynamics of the trough.  Model
soundings continue to indicate the presence of elevated instability
Friday night across the area, and given modest 500mb height falls as
well as steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air
aloft, some of the stronger storms could produce large hail and
gusty winds. A cold front will move through the area late Saturday
morning, and subsidence behind the trough/front will serve to
shift convection east of the area. While temperatures are not
expected to drop too much, it does look like Sunday could be quite
breezy thanks to westerly winds behind the departing trough.

The remainder of the extended forecast looks to remain dry, as the
region will once again be under the influence of northwest flow
aloft.  Another cold front is progged to move through the area
Sunday night/Monday, which will result in slightly below normal
temperatures through the first half of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 36  69  36  65  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              39  70  40  65  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                33  68  36  66  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  39  69  47  69  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           42  74  43  70  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  63  42  63  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   32  67  33  63  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   29  67  30  65  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  70  37  67  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  38  69  39  67  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    35  72  39  69  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 192052
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
252 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The warming trend will continue Thursday, as zonal flow aloft and
850mb thermal ridging will allow temperatures to rise to slightly
above normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 60s to
low 70s across West Texas and Southeast New Mexico. Overnight low
temperatures will be a bit milder as well, in the 30s and low to mid
40s into the weekend.  The main focus of the forecast continues to
be a low pressure system progged to come ashore over the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday, which will deepen considerably as it shifts
eastward across the Rockies. Ahead of the low and accompanying
trough, a return to southwest flow aloft and southerly return flow
at the surface by Friday morning will aid in moisture return to the
region.  This will serve to keep temperatures seasonable into the
weekend, though increasing cloudcover is expected through the day on
Friday.  Models continue to be in good agreement that the system
will move through Southeast New Mexico and West Texas late Friday
night and early Saturday as a progressive open wave, with the
deepest part of the trough moving through Big Bend before lifting
toward central Texas Saturday afternoon.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop on Friday night, mainly over
the Trans Pecos and Permian Basin, aided by the aforementioned
moisture return as well as supportive dynamics of the trough.  Model
soundings continue to indicate the presence of elevated instability
Friday night across the area, and given modest 500mb height falls as
well as steepening lapse rates due to the influx of colder air
aloft, some of the stronger storms could produce large hail and
gusty winds. A cold front will move through the area late Saturday
morning, and subsidence behind the trough/front will serve to
shift convection east of the area. While temperatures are not
expected to drop too much, it does look like Sunday could be quite
breezy thanks to westerly winds behind the departing trough.

The remainder of the extended forecast looks to remain dry, as the
region will once again be under the influence of northwest flow
aloft.  Another cold front is progged to move through the area
Sunday night/Monday, which will result in slightly below normal
temperatures through the first half of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 36  69  36  65  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              39  70  40  65  /   0   0   0  10
CARLSBAD NM                33  68  36  66  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  39  69  47  69  /   0   0  10  10
FORT STOCKTON TX           42  74  43  70  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          39  63  42  63  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   32  67  33  63  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   29  67  30  65  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    37  70  37  67  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  38  69  39  67  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    35  72  39  69  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10/84

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 191658
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1058 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 18Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and light winds through the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Quiescent and dry conditions will prevail the next couple of days as
the flow aloft over the region becomes more zonal, and the cold
airmass over the area exits eastward under this regime.  Think the
gradual warmup will continue today, but be tempered somewhat by an
increase in high clouds.  However on Thursday, less cloud cover will
conspire with a developing surface trough developing south into the
area to vault temperatures a few degrees above normal, so have
tended readings toward the warmer guidance.  A weak cold front could
ease southward into the area Thursday night/Friday as a shortwave
trough approaches from the west, but think increasing cloud cover
will have more of an effect on high temps Friday afternoon than the
front.  Regardless of whether the front enters the forecast area or
not, it appears low level moisture will begin to increase over the
area Friday and Friday night.

As the aforementioned upper trough moves over the region Friday
night, expect convection to break out, but mainly over the
northeastern half or so of the forecast area.  Instability will be
limited, but still think there could be a few storms capable of
producing hail as mid level lapse rates will be 7.5 to 8 C/Km.
Therefore, will continue to mention gusty winds, hail and frequent
lightning strikes in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.  Precipitation
should shift east of the region Saturday morning, but will keep
chance PoPs going Saturday morning over extreme eastern portions of
the Permian Basin.

Temperatures will be a little milder than normal on Saturday and
Sunday morning, while high temperatures will be seasonal.  That is,
until another cold front moves through the area Sunday night
Monday.  Expect temperatures to remain a little below normal through
mid next week.  Rain chance will be negligible through the extended
forecast after Saturday morning.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities