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000
FXUS64 KMAF 272304
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under clear skies.
Winds will generally be less than 10 knots for most of the TAF
period. There is a slight chance of some light fog near sunrise
Friday at some of the terminals but confidence was not high enough
at this time to include anywhere.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

* Warm Thanksgiving day weekend ahead!
* Patchy fog late tonight?
* Strong Arctic front arriving early Monday morning
* Modest warming through next Thursday

We`ll get smacked back into winter Monday...more on that later.

Westerly to southwesterly flow will prevail for the next few days.
We will see a modest increase in low level moisture overnight, and
this in turn may create conditions favorable for patchy fog between
midnight to about 8 am.  Temperatures will be some 10 to 15 degrees
above normal Friday through Sunday.  Carpe diem!

A developing split flow regime across the eastern Pacific will dislodge
a pile of Arctic air over Canada this weekend. This wedge of unseasonably
cold air will arrive (faster and a bit colder than a consensus of
models suggest) across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico
beginning very early Monday morning. The front should shoot down
to the Pecos by sunrise Monday, then through the Big Bend by noon.
We`ll see a drastic swing in temperatures between Sunday and
Monday, with highs Sunday around 10 degrees above normal, then
down to 15 to 20 degrees below normal for high temperatures
Monday. Limited moisture and meager dynamics will mean a dry
frontal passage; however, wouldn`t be surprised to see some V dot
del(dirt) coming off the cotton fields of the South Plains Monday,
resulting in blowing dust conditions

Winds will quickly turn to the south Tuesday, but the cold air
will modify only slightly. We`ll see some clouds Wednesday and
Thursday as temperatures warm to around normal for the first week
of December. Dry conditions look to continue as well, at least
through next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  72  39  73  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              41  72  41  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                31  73  37  76  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  36  71  43  73  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  75  42  79  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  64  41  68  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   30  73  35  73  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   26  67  38  70  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  71  38  72  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  40  72  39  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    32  75  40  76  /   0   0   0   0

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 272304
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
504 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours under clear skies.
Winds will generally be less than 10 knots for most of the TAF
period. There is a slight chance of some light fog near sunrise
Friday at some of the terminals but confidence was not high enough
at this time to include anywhere.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

* Warm Thanksgiving day weekend ahead!
* Patchy fog late tonight?
* Strong Arctic front arriving early Monday morning
* Modest warming through next Thursday

We`ll get smacked back into winter Monday...more on that later.

Westerly to southwesterly flow will prevail for the next few days.
We will see a modest increase in low level moisture overnight, and
this in turn may create conditions favorable for patchy fog between
midnight to about 8 am.  Temperatures will be some 10 to 15 degrees
above normal Friday through Sunday.  Carpe diem!

A developing split flow regime across the eastern Pacific will dislodge
a pile of Arctic air over Canada this weekend. This wedge of unseasonably
cold air will arrive (faster and a bit colder than a consensus of
models suggest) across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico
beginning very early Monday morning. The front should shoot down
to the Pecos by sunrise Monday, then through the Big Bend by noon.
We`ll see a drastic swing in temperatures between Sunday and
Monday, with highs Sunday around 10 degrees above normal, then
down to 15 to 20 degrees below normal for high temperatures
Monday. Limited moisture and meager dynamics will mean a dry
frontal passage; however, wouldn`t be surprised to see some V dot
del(dirt) coming off the cotton fields of the South Plains Monday,
resulting in blowing dust conditions

Winds will quickly turn to the south Tuesday, but the cold air
will modify only slightly. We`ll see some clouds Wednesday and
Thursday as temperatures warm to around normal for the first week
of December. Dry conditions look to continue as well, at least
through next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  72  39  73  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              41  72  41  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                31  73  37  76  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  36  71  43  73  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  75  42  79  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  64  41  68  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   30  73  35  73  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   26  67  38  70  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  71  38  72  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  40  72  39  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    32  75  40  76  /   0   0   0   0

&&


.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 272055
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

* Warm Thanksgiving day weekend ahead!
* Patchy fog late tonight?
* Strong Arctic front arriving early Monday morning
* Modest warming through next Thursday

We`ll get smacked back into winter Monday...more on that later.

Westerly to southwesterly flow will prevail for the next few days.
We will see a modest increase in low level moisture overnight, and
this in turn may create conditions favorable for patchy fog between
midnight to about 8 am.  Temperatures will be some 10 to 15 degrees
above normal Friday through Sunday.  Carpe diem!

A developing split flow regime across the eastern Pacific will dislodge
a pile of Arctic air over Canada this weekend. This wedge of unseasonably
cold air will arrive (faster and a bit colder than a consensus of
models suggest) across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico
beginning very early Monday morning. The front should shoot down
to the Pecos by sunrise Monday, then through the Big Bend by noon.
We`ll see a drastic swing in temperatures between Sunday and
Monday, with highs Sunday around 10 degrees above normal, then
down to 15 to 20 degrees below normal for high temperatures
Monday. Limited moisture and meager dynamics will mean a dry
frontal passage; however, wouldn`t be surprised to see some V dot
del(dirt) coming off the cotton fields of the South Plains Monday,
resulting in blowing dust conditions

Winds will quickly turn to the south Tuesday, but the cold air
will modify only slightly. We`ll see some clouds Wednesday and
Thursday as temperatures warm to around normal for the first week
of December. Dry conditions look to continue as well, at least
through next weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  72  39  73  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              41  72  41  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                31  73  37  76  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  36  71  43  73  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  75  42  79  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  64  41  68  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   30  73  35  73  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   26  67  38  70  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  71  38  72  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  40  72  39  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    32  75  40  76  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/70

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http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 272055
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
255 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

* Warm Thanksgiving day weekend ahead!
* Patchy fog late tonight?
* Strong Arctic front arriving early Monday morning
* Modest warming through next Thursday

We`ll get smacked back into winter Monday...more on that later.

Westerly to southwesterly flow will prevail for the next few days.
We will see a modest increase in low level moisture overnight, and
this in turn may create conditions favorable for patchy fog between
midnight to about 8 am.  Temperatures will be some 10 to 15 degrees
above normal Friday through Sunday.  Carpe diem!

A developing split flow regime across the eastern Pacific will dislodge
a pile of Arctic air over Canada this weekend. This wedge of unseasonably
cold air will arrive (faster and a bit colder than a consensus of
models suggest) across west Texas and southeastern New Mexico
beginning very early Monday morning. The front should shoot down
to the Pecos by sunrise Monday, then through the Big Bend by noon.
We`ll see a drastic swing in temperatures between Sunday and
Monday, with highs Sunday around 10 degrees above normal, then
down to 15 to 20 degrees below normal for high temperatures
Monday. Limited moisture and meager dynamics will mean a dry
frontal passage; however, wouldn`t be surprised to see some V dot
del(dirt) coming off the cotton fields of the South Plains Monday,
resulting in blowing dust conditions

Winds will quickly turn to the south Tuesday, but the cold air
will modify only slightly. We`ll see some clouds Wednesday and
Thursday as temperatures warm to around normal for the first week
of December. Dry conditions look to continue as well, at least
through next weekend.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 37  72  39  73  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              41  72  41  73  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                31  73  37  76  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  36  71  43  73  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           41  75  42  79  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          42  64  41  68  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   30  73  35  73  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   26  67  38  70  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    38  71  38  72  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  40  72  39  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    32  75  40  76  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

67/70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271723
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals during the next
24 hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Intermountain west will build east the
next several days.  This ridge will flatten out with zonal flow
across the county... look for mild wx to continuing through the
weekend with sunny days and clear nights.

In years past have had snow on Thanksgiving day but not this year as
will have very good wx for anyone traveling across the region.  Had
a weak front move through the area yesterday so will start the day
with a light east wind over most of the area but will come around to
the south as a new leeside trough develops.  Highs today will be
near normal and in the 60s.  S/SW wind will be a little stronger on
Friday and may be gusty in the afternoon as pressure gradient
associated with a surface low over CO tightens.  This will result in
noticeably warmer temps on Friday as highs climb it into the 70s.
Saturday and Sunday will have 70s too.  On Monday a cold front blows
through the area bringing a brief return to cooler wx but by Tuesday
temperatures should return to near normal.

The forecast looks dry through next Wednesday.  Models have been
trying to develop some precip in the extended but the next upper
trough now looks to weaken and pass north of the area so not
expecting much.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271723
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1123 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail at all area terminals during the next
24 hours.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Intermountain west will build east the
next several days.  This ridge will flatten out with zonal flow
across the county... look for mild wx to continuing through the
weekend with sunny days and clear nights.

In years past have had snow on Thanksgiving day but not this year as
will have very good wx for anyone traveling across the region.  Had
a weak front move through the area yesterday so will start the day
with a light east wind over most of the area but will come around to
the south as a new leeside trough develops.  Highs today will be
near normal and in the 60s.  S/SW wind will be a little stronger on
Friday and may be gusty in the afternoon as pressure gradient
associated with a surface low over CO tightens.  This will result in
noticeably warmer temps on Friday as highs climb it into the 70s.
Saturday and Sunday will have 70s too.  On Monday a cold front blows
through the area bringing a brief return to cooler wx but by Tuesday
temperatures should return to near normal.

The forecast looks dry through next Wednesday.  Models have been
trying to develop some precip in the extended but the next upper
trough now looks to weaken and pass north of the area so not
expecting much.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 271105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
505 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
clear skies and light southeast winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Intermountain west will build east the
next several days.  This ridge will flatten out with zonal flow
across the county... look for mild wx to continuing through the
weekend with sunny days and clear nights.

In years past have had snow on Thanksgiving day but not this year as
will have very good wx for anyone traveling across the region.  Had
a weak front move through the area yesterday so will start the day
with a light east wind over most of the area but will come around to
the south as a new leeside trough develops.  Highs today will be
near normal and in the 60s.  S/SW wind will be a little stronger on
Friday and may be gusty in the afternoon as pressure gradient
associated with a surface low over CO tightens.  This will result in
noticeably warmer temps on Friday as highs climb it into the 70s.
Saturday and Sunday will have 70s too.  On Monday a cold front blows
through the area bringing a brief return to cooler wx but by Tuesday
temperatures should return to near normal.

The forecast looks dry through next Wednesday.  Models have been
trying to develop some precip in the extended but the next upper
trough now looks to weaken and pass north of the area so not
expecting much.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland









000
FXUS64 KMAF 271105
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
505 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period, with
clear skies and light southeast winds.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Intermountain west will build east the
next several days.  This ridge will flatten out with zonal flow
across the county... look for mild wx to continuing through the
weekend with sunny days and clear nights.

In years past have had snow on Thanksgiving day but not this year as
will have very good wx for anyone traveling across the region.  Had
a weak front move through the area yesterday so will start the day
with a light east wind over most of the area but will come around to
the south as a new leeside trough develops.  Highs today will be
near normal and in the 60s.  S/SW wind will be a little stronger on
Friday and may be gusty in the afternoon as pressure gradient
associated with a surface low over CO tightens.  This will result in
noticeably warmer temps on Friday as highs climb it into the 70s.
Saturday and Sunday will have 70s too.  On Monday a cold front blows
through the area bringing a brief return to cooler wx but by Tuesday
temperatures should return to near normal.

The forecast looks dry through next Wednesday.  Models have been
trying to develop some precip in the extended but the next upper
trough now looks to weaken and pass north of the area so not
expecting much.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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http://weather.gov/midland








000
FXUS64 KMAF 270937
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
337 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Intermountain west will build east the
next several days.  This ridge will flatten out with zonal flow
across the county... look for mild wx to continuing through the
weekend with sunny days and clear nights.

In years past have had snow on Thanksgiving day but not this year as
will have very good wx for anyone traveling across the region.  Had
a weak front move through the area yesterday so will start the day
with a light east wind over most of the area but will come around to
the south as a new leeside trough develops.  Highs today will be
near normal and in the 60s.  S/SW wind will be a little stronger on
Friday and may be gusty in the afternoon as pressure gradient
associated with a surface low over CO tightens.  This will result in
noticeably warmer temps on Friday as highs climb it into the 70s.
Saturday and Sunday will have 70s too.  On Monday a cold front blows
through the area bringing a brief return to cooler wx but by Tuesday
temperatures should return to near normal.

The forecast looks dry through next Wednesday.  Models have been
trying to develop some precip in the extended but the next upper
trough now looks to weaken and pass north of the area so not
expecting much.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  36  71  37  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              60  38  71  40  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                62  31  73  36  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  64  38  70  39  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  40  74  44  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  40  63  41  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   60  33  72  34  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  24  67  26  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  37  71  38  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  61  36  72  38  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    63  34  73  34  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 270937
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
337 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over the Intermountain west will build east the
next several days.  This ridge will flatten out with zonal flow
across the county... look for mild wx to continuing through the
weekend with sunny days and clear nights.

In years past have had snow on Thanksgiving day but not this year as
will have very good wx for anyone traveling across the region.  Had
a weak front move through the area yesterday so will start the day
with a light east wind over most of the area but will come around to
the south as a new leeside trough develops.  Highs today will be
near normal and in the 60s.  S/SW wind will be a little stronger on
Friday and may be gusty in the afternoon as pressure gradient
associated with a surface low over CO tightens.  This will result in
noticeably warmer temps on Friday as highs climb it into the 70s.
Saturday and Sunday will have 70s too.  On Monday a cold front blows
through the area bringing a brief return to cooler wx but by Tuesday
temperatures should return to near normal.

The forecast looks dry through next Wednesday.  Models have been
trying to develop some precip in the extended but the next upper
trough now looks to weaken and pass north of the area so not
expecting much.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 60  36  71  37  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              60  38  71  40  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                62  31  73  36  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  64  38  70  39  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           65  40  74  44  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          59  40  63  41  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   60  33  72  34  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  24  67  26  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    61  37  71  38  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  61  36  72  38  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    63  34  73  34  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 270448
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1048 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light east to southeast winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures warming up nicely this afternoon despite a weak frontal
boundary stalled somewhere near the Pecos River. Generally have
light northerly winds across the Permian Basin and SE NM this
afternoon but winds will slowly veer to the east this evening as the
associated surface ridge sinks further south. Could get some pretty
good cooling with light winds and clear skies in place tonight so
expect overnight lows ranging from near 30 north to the mid and
upper 30s south.

Dry NW flow aloft will continue to weaken tonight, transitioning to
zonal flow which will dominate the upper pattern for the next
several days. Thanksgiving day, we`re looking at south winds under
clear skies with high temperatures in the 60s most places. By
Friday, a lee surface trough will extend southward through eastern
New Mexico, resulting in southwest downsloping winds developing
across the FA. Temperatures will warm considerably Friday through
the weekend and by Sunday, expect highs in the 70s areawide. A few
locations along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys may even
approach 80. An upper trough, swinging through the northern
states over the weekend, will send a cold front south through the
region Monday. Areas across the Permian Basin will likely see a
brief period of breezy NE winds as the front moves through during
the morning hours. High temperatures will be closer to
climatological normals for the beginning of December. Otherwise,
expect dry conditions heading into the beginning of next week.

Early next week, an eastward moving ua disturbance was previously
thought to bring rain chances back to the region by mid week but
latest model data suggests otherwise... The 12Z GFS has come more in
line with the ECMWF (although the ECMWF is still much slower with
the system) in depicting a much weaker disturbance moving too far
north for us to see any precip. Will continue to monitor subsequent
model runs for any changes.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 270448
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1048 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light east to southeast winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures warming up nicely this afternoon despite a weak frontal
boundary stalled somewhere near the Pecos River. Generally have
light northerly winds across the Permian Basin and SE NM this
afternoon but winds will slowly veer to the east this evening as the
associated surface ridge sinks further south. Could get some pretty
good cooling with light winds and clear skies in place tonight so
expect overnight lows ranging from near 30 north to the mid and
upper 30s south.

Dry NW flow aloft will continue to weaken tonight, transitioning to
zonal flow which will dominate the upper pattern for the next
several days. Thanksgiving day, we`re looking at south winds under
clear skies with high temperatures in the 60s most places. By
Friday, a lee surface trough will extend southward through eastern
New Mexico, resulting in southwest downsloping winds developing
across the FA. Temperatures will warm considerably Friday through
the weekend and by Sunday, expect highs in the 70s areawide. A few
locations along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys may even
approach 80. An upper trough, swinging through the northern
states over the weekend, will send a cold front south through the
region Monday. Areas across the Permian Basin will likely see a
brief period of breezy NE winds as the front moves through during
the morning hours. High temperatures will be closer to
climatological normals for the beginning of December. Otherwise,
expect dry conditions heading into the beginning of next week.

Early next week, an eastward moving ua disturbance was previously
thought to bring rain chances back to the region by mid week but
latest model data suggests otherwise... The 12Z GFS has come more in
line with the ECMWF (although the ECMWF is still much slower with
the system) in depicting a much weaker disturbance moving too far
north for us to see any precip. Will continue to monitor subsequent
model runs for any changes.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 270448
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1048 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light east to southeast winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures warming up nicely this afternoon despite a weak frontal
boundary stalled somewhere near the Pecos River. Generally have
light northerly winds across the Permian Basin and SE NM this
afternoon but winds will slowly veer to the east this evening as the
associated surface ridge sinks further south. Could get some pretty
good cooling with light winds and clear skies in place tonight so
expect overnight lows ranging from near 30 north to the mid and
upper 30s south.

Dry NW flow aloft will continue to weaken tonight, transitioning to
zonal flow which will dominate the upper pattern for the next
several days. Thanksgiving day, we`re looking at south winds under
clear skies with high temperatures in the 60s most places. By
Friday, a lee surface trough will extend southward through eastern
New Mexico, resulting in southwest downsloping winds developing
across the FA. Temperatures will warm considerably Friday through
the weekend and by Sunday, expect highs in the 70s areawide. A few
locations along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys may even
approach 80. An upper trough, swinging through the northern
states over the weekend, will send a cold front south through the
region Monday. Areas across the Permian Basin will likely see a
brief period of breezy NE winds as the front moves through during
the morning hours. High temperatures will be closer to
climatological normals for the beginning of December. Otherwise,
expect dry conditions heading into the beginning of next week.

Early next week, an eastward moving ua disturbance was previously
thought to bring rain chances back to the region by mid week but
latest model data suggests otherwise... The 12Z GFS has come more in
line with the ECMWF (although the ECMWF is still much slower with
the system) in depicting a much weaker disturbance moving too far
north for us to see any precip. Will continue to monitor subsequent
model runs for any changes.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 270448
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1048 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions and light east to southeast winds this TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures warming up nicely this afternoon despite a weak frontal
boundary stalled somewhere near the Pecos River. Generally have
light northerly winds across the Permian Basin and SE NM this
afternoon but winds will slowly veer to the east this evening as the
associated surface ridge sinks further south. Could get some pretty
good cooling with light winds and clear skies in place tonight so
expect overnight lows ranging from near 30 north to the mid and
upper 30s south.

Dry NW flow aloft will continue to weaken tonight, transitioning to
zonal flow which will dominate the upper pattern for the next
several days. Thanksgiving day, we`re looking at south winds under
clear skies with high temperatures in the 60s most places. By
Friday, a lee surface trough will extend southward through eastern
New Mexico, resulting in southwest downsloping winds developing
across the FA. Temperatures will warm considerably Friday through
the weekend and by Sunday, expect highs in the 70s areawide. A few
locations along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys may even
approach 80. An upper trough, swinging through the northern
states over the weekend, will send a cold front south through the
region Monday. Areas across the Permian Basin will likely see a
brief period of breezy NE winds as the front moves through during
the morning hours. High temperatures will be closer to
climatological normals for the beginning of December. Otherwise,
expect dry conditions heading into the beginning of next week.

Early next week, an eastward moving ua disturbance was previously
thought to bring rain chances back to the region by mid week but
latest model data suggests otherwise... The 12Z GFS has come more in
line with the ECMWF (although the ECMWF is still much slower with
the system) in depicting a much weaker disturbance moving too far
north for us to see any precip. Will continue to monitor subsequent
model runs for any changes.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 262326
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
526 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light northeast winds shifting from the southeast over time. VFR
conditions will continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures warming up nicely this afternoon despite a weak frontal
boundary stalled somewhere near the Pecos River. Generally have
light northerly winds across the Permian Basin and SE NM this
afternoon but winds will slowly veer to the east this evening as the
associated surface ridge sinks further south. Could get some pretty
good cooling with light winds and clear skies in place tonight so
expect overnight lows ranging from near 30 north to the mid and
upper 30s south.

Dry NW flow aloft will continue to weaken tonight, transitioning to
zonal flow which will dominate the upper pattern for the next
several days. Thanksgiving day, we`re looking at south winds under
clear skies with high temperatures in the 60s most places. By
Friday, a lee surface trough will extend southward through eastern
New Mexico, resulting in southwest downsloping winds developing
across the FA. Temperatures will warm considerably Friday through
the weekend and by Sunday, expect highs in the 70s areawide. A few
locations along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys may even
approach 80. An upper trough, swinging through the northern
states over the weekend, will send a cold front south through the
region Monday. Areas across the Permian Basin will likely see a
brief period of breezy NE winds as the front moves through during
the morning hours. High temperatures will be closer to
climatological normals for the beginning of December. Otherwise,
expect dry conditions heading into the beginning of next week.

Early next week, an eastward moving ua disturbance was previously
thought to bring rain chances back to the region by mid week but
latest model data suggests otherwise... The 12Z GFS has come more in
line with the ECMWF (although the ECMWF is still much slower with
the system) in depicting a much weaker disturbance moving too far
north for us to see any precip. Will continue to monitor subsequent
model runs for any changes.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 262326
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
526 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light northeast winds shifting from the southeast over time. VFR
conditions will continue.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures warming up nicely this afternoon despite a weak frontal
boundary stalled somewhere near the Pecos River. Generally have
light northerly winds across the Permian Basin and SE NM this
afternoon but winds will slowly veer to the east this evening as the
associated surface ridge sinks further south. Could get some pretty
good cooling with light winds and clear skies in place tonight so
expect overnight lows ranging from near 30 north to the mid and
upper 30s south.

Dry NW flow aloft will continue to weaken tonight, transitioning to
zonal flow which will dominate the upper pattern for the next
several days. Thanksgiving day, we`re looking at south winds under
clear skies with high temperatures in the 60s most places. By
Friday, a lee surface trough will extend southward through eastern
New Mexico, resulting in southwest downsloping winds developing
across the FA. Temperatures will warm considerably Friday through
the weekend and by Sunday, expect highs in the 70s areawide. A few
locations along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys may even
approach 80. An upper trough, swinging through the northern
states over the weekend, will send a cold front south through the
region Monday. Areas across the Permian Basin will likely see a
brief period of breezy NE winds as the front moves through during
the morning hours. High temperatures will be closer to
climatological normals for the beginning of December. Otherwise,
expect dry conditions heading into the beginning of next week.

Early next week, an eastward moving ua disturbance was previously
thought to bring rain chances back to the region by mid week but
latest model data suggests otherwise... The 12Z GFS has come more in
line with the ECMWF (although the ECMWF is still much slower with
the system) in depicting a much weaker disturbance moving too far
north for us to see any precip. Will continue to monitor subsequent
model runs for any changes.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 262037
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures warming up nicely this afternoon despite a weak frontal
boundary stalled somewhere near the Pecos River. Generally have
light northerly winds across the Permian Basin and SE NM this
afternoon but winds will slowly veer to the east this evening as the
associated surface ridge sinks further south. Could get some pretty
good cooling with light winds and clear skies in place tonight so
expect overnight lows ranging from near 30 north to the mid and
upper 30s south.

Dry NW flow aloft will continue to weaken tonight, transitioning to
zonal flow which will dominate the upper pattern for the next
several days. Thanksgiving day, we`re looking at south winds under
clear skies with high temperatures in the 60s most places. By
Friday, a lee surface trough will extend southward through eastern
New Mexico, resulting in southwest downsloping winds developing
across the FA. Temperatures will warm considerably Friday through
the weekend and by Sunday, expect highs in the 70s areawide. A few
locations along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys may even
approach 80. An upper trough, swinging through the northern
states over the weekend, will send a cold front south through the
region Monday. Areas across the Permian Basin will likely see a
brief period of breezy NE winds as the front moves through during
the morning hours. High temperatures will be closer to
climatological normals for the beginning of December. Otherwise,
expect dry conditions heading into the beginning of next week.

Early next week, an eastward moving ua disturbance was previously
thought to bring rain chances back to the region by mid week but
latest model data suggests otherwise... The 12Z GFS has come more in
line with the ECMWF (although the ECMWF is still much slower with
the system) in depicting a much weaker disturbance moving too far
north for us to see any precip. Will continue to monitor subsequent
model runs for any changes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 32  61  36  72  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              34  62  39  72  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                31  63  32  74  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  38  63  38  69  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           36  66  40  75  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          37  58  40  66  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   31  62  33  73  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   25  61  26  67  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    32  62  36  72  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  32  62  36  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    33  64  34  74  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 262037
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
237 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Temperatures warming up nicely this afternoon despite a weak frontal
boundary stalled somewhere near the Pecos River. Generally have
light northerly winds across the Permian Basin and SE NM this
afternoon but winds will slowly veer to the east this evening as the
associated surface ridge sinks further south. Could get some pretty
good cooling with light winds and clear skies in place tonight so
expect overnight lows ranging from near 30 north to the mid and
upper 30s south.

Dry NW flow aloft will continue to weaken tonight, transitioning to
zonal flow which will dominate the upper pattern for the next
several days. Thanksgiving day, we`re looking at south winds under
clear skies with high temperatures in the 60s most places. By
Friday, a lee surface trough will extend southward through eastern
New Mexico, resulting in southwest downsloping winds developing
across the FA. Temperatures will warm considerably Friday through
the weekend and by Sunday, expect highs in the 70s areawide. A few
locations along the Rio Grande and Pecos River Valleys may even
approach 80. An upper trough, swinging through the northern
states over the weekend, will send a cold front south through the
region Monday. Areas across the Permian Basin will likely see a
brief period of breezy NE winds as the front moves through during
the morning hours. High temperatures will be closer to
climatological normals for the beginning of December. Otherwise,
expect dry conditions heading into the beginning of next week.

Early next week, an eastward moving ua disturbance was previously
thought to bring rain chances back to the region by mid week but
latest model data suggests otherwise... The 12Z GFS has come more in
line with the ECMWF (although the ECMWF is still much slower with
the system) in depicting a much weaker disturbance moving too far
north for us to see any precip. Will continue to monitor subsequent
model runs for any changes.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 32  61  36  72  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              34  62  39  72  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                31  63  32  74  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  38  63  38  69  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           36  66  40  75  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          37  58  40  66  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   31  62  33  73  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   25  61  26  67  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    32  62  36  72  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  32  62  36  73  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    33  64  34  74  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261748
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1148 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 26/18Z aviation forecast discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A weak cold front is progressing southward across west Texas and
southeastern New Mexico at press time, with the boundary now
located just north of the Pecos River. Behind the front, affecting
the KHOB and KMAF (and, soon, KINK) terminals, look for about
three to four hours of gusty north to northeast winds. At the KFST
and KPEQ terminals, look for westerly winds to veer around to the
north and become gusty for a few hours. KCNM will see a wind shift
to the north but the wind gusts (up to 25 kts) should not affect
them. Before sunset, winds will become light out of the northeast
and around midnight become light and variable. Mid morning
Thanksgiving will have winds returning to a southerly direction
generally around 10 kts. Otherwise expect CAVU conditions to
prevail through 18Z turkey day, and perhaps longer than that.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will prevail through the
forecast period. A weak boundary pushing south through the region
will result in winds veering to the north and then east by this
afternoon, though wind speeds are expected to remain at or below
12KT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over CA will build in from the west the next
several days.  The ridge will flatten out by the weekend with near
zonal flow across the country.  This will result in an extended
period of mild wx for the region with sunny days and clear nights.
See no hazards for those traveling across W TX or SE NM the next
few days.

Will start off the morning a little warmer as overnight wind has
kept temps elevated.  A weak front moves through today will be
mainly a wind shift as a surface ridge builds south into the area.
The wind will come around to the north around noon then quickly
veer around to the east by sunset.  The development of a new
leeside trough Thursday will result in a return to a south wind
and slightly warmer temperatures.  By Friday even warmer
conditions expected as highs climb into the 70s and stay that way
through the weekend.  The next cold front blows through Monday
with a return to more seasonable temperatures.

In the extended there is a chance of precipitation moving into the
area with an upper trough next Wednesday.  Until then the forecast
will remain dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

70

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
527 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will prevail through the
forecast period. A weak boundary pushing south through the region
will result in winds veering to the north and then east by this
afternoon, though wind speeds are expected to remain at or below
12KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over CA will build in from the west the next
several days.  The ridge will flatten out by the weekend with near
zonal flow across the country.  This will result in an extended
period of mild wx for the region with sunny days and clear nights.
See no hazards for those traveling across W TX or SE NM the next
few days.

Will start off the morning a little warmer as overnight wind has
kept temps elevated.  A weak front moves through today will be
mainly a wind shift as a surface ridge builds south into the area.
The wind will come around to the north around noon then quickly
veer around to the east by sunset.  The development of a new
leeside trough Thursday will result in a return to a south wind
and slightly warmer temperatures.  By Friday even warmer
conditions expected as highs climb into the 70s and stay that way
through the weekend.  The next cold front blows through Monday
with a return to more seasonable temperatures.

In the extended there is a chance of precipitation moving into the
area with an upper trough next Wednesday.  Until then the forecast
will remain dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 261127
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
527 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will prevail through the
forecast period. A weak boundary pushing south through the region
will result in winds veering to the north and then east by this
afternoon, though wind speeds are expected to remain at or below
12KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over CA will build in from the west the next
several days.  The ridge will flatten out by the weekend with near
zonal flow across the country.  This will result in an extended
period of mild wx for the region with sunny days and clear nights.
See no hazards for those traveling across W TX or SE NM the next
few days.

Will start off the morning a little warmer as overnight wind has
kept temps elevated.  A weak front moves through today will be
mainly a wind shift as a surface ridge builds south into the area.
The wind will come around to the north around noon then quickly
veer around to the east by sunset.  The development of a new
leeside trough Thursday will result in a return to a south wind
and slightly warmer temperatures.  By Friday even warmer
conditions expected as highs climb into the 70s and stay that way
through the weekend.  The next cold front blows through Monday
with a return to more seasonable temperatures.

In the extended there is a chance of precipitation moving into the
area with an upper trough next Wednesday.  Until then the forecast
will remain dry.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260945
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over CA will build in from the west the next
several days.  The ridge will flatten out by the weekend with near
zonal flow across the country.  This will result in an extended
period of mild wx for the region with sunny days and clear nights.
See no hazards for those traveling across W TX or SE NM the next
few days.

Will start off the morning a little warmer as overnight wind has
kept temps elevated.  A weak front moves through today will be
mainly a wind shift as a surface ridge builds south into the area.
The wind will come around to the north around noon then quickly
veer around to the east by sunset.  The development of a new
leeside trough Thursday will result in a return to a south wind
and slightly warmer temperatures.  By Friday even warmer
conditions expected as highs climb into the 70s and stay that way
through the weekend.  The next cold front blows through Monday
with a return to more seasonable temperatures.

In the extended there is a chance of precipitation moving into the
area with an upper trough next Wednesday.  Until then the forecast
will remain dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  31  63  35  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              62  34  63  38  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                64  31  65  32  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  38  65  38  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           66  37  67  40  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  37  59  40  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   62  31  63  33  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  23  63  25  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  31  63  36  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  63  31  63  37  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    66  33  66  34  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260945
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Upper ridge centered over CA will build in from the west the next
several days.  The ridge will flatten out by the weekend with near
zonal flow across the country.  This will result in an extended
period of mild wx for the region with sunny days and clear nights.
See no hazards for those traveling across W TX or SE NM the next
few days.

Will start off the morning a little warmer as overnight wind has
kept temps elevated.  A weak front moves through today will be
mainly a wind shift as a surface ridge builds south into the area.
The wind will come around to the north around noon then quickly
veer around to the east by sunset.  The development of a new
leeside trough Thursday will result in a return to a south wind
and slightly warmer temperatures.  By Friday even warmer
conditions expected as highs climb into the 70s and stay that way
through the weekend.  The next cold front blows through Monday
with a return to more seasonable temperatures.

In the extended there is a chance of precipitation moving into the
area with an upper trough next Wednesday.  Until then the forecast
will remain dry.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 62  31  63  35  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              62  34  63  38  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                64  31  65  32  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  69  38  65  38  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           66  37  67  40  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          58  37  59  40  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   62  31  63  33  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   63  23  63  25  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    62  31  63  36  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  63  31  63  37  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    66  33  66  34  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 260448
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1048 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 06Z aviation discussin below.

&&

.AVIATION...
Light west winds tonight will shift from the northeast and east
around 18Z as a weak front moves into the area. Mostly clear skies
will remain.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A few changes to the previous forecast but nothing too major, the
next 7 days look to remain relatively uneventful weather-wise across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This afternoon, temperatures
have generally warmed into 50s most locations with notable SW
winds gusting up to 25mph across northern zones. This is due to a
strengthening lee surface trough extending south through eastern
New Mexico. Elevated wind speeds continuing tonight will likely
keep overnight lows from tanking so bumped temps up a bit, closer
to warmer guidance.

Northwest flow aloft today will become nearly zonal Wednesday and
remain so through the weekend, keeping Arctic air bottled to the
north. A weak cold front will sink south into NE zones tomorrow
but a weak wind shift to the NE is all that is anticipated and
high temperatures will warm to the 60s most places. The warming
trend continues Thursday with the return of southerly winds at the
surface thanks to a developing lee surface trough. As this surface
trough extends southward Friday and Saturday, expect southwest
downsloping winds to push high temperatures near or above 70
through Sunday. Quick side note, a weak upper disturbance will
slowly move east over the southern half of the CWA Thursday and
Friday however the only affects seem to be a slower warming trend
for Big Bend areas. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to persist.

Beyond Sunday, ua flow looks to back slightly to the southwest in
response to the next upper trough entering the PacNW and digging
into the Rockies early in the week. This trough could be our next
shot at rain for mainly eastern portions of the region, where best
moisture will exist. Forecast models differ on the speed of the
upper trough and therefore the arrival of the associated upper
forcing for ascent. Will keep silent PoPs in the forecast for
day 8 (next Tuesday) and continue to monitor the evolution of this
scenario in subsequent model runs.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 252312
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
512 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussin below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and west to southwest winds through most of the TAF period
shifting from the northeast late as a cold front arrives.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A few changes to the previous forecast but nothing too major, the
next 7 days look to remain relatively uneventful weather-wise across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This afternoon, temperatures
have generally warmed into 50s most locations with notable SW
winds gusting up to 25mph across northern zones. This is due to a
strengthening lee surface trough extending south through eastern
New Mexico. Elevated wind speeds continuing tonight will likely
keep overnight lows from tanking so bumped temps up a bit, closer
to warmer guidance.

Northwest flow aloft today will become nearly zonal Wednesday and
remain so through the weekend, keeping Arctic air bottled to the
north. A weak cold front will sink south into NE zones tomorrow
but a weak wind shift to the NE is all that is anticipated and
high temperatures will warm to the 60s most places. The warming
trend continues Thursday with the return of southerly winds at the
surface thanks to a developing lee surface trough. As this surface
trough extends southward Friday and Saturday, expect southwest
downsloping winds to push high temperatures near or above 70
through Sunday. Quick side note, a weak upper disturbance will
slowly move east over the southern half of the CWA Thursday and
Friday however the only affects seem to be a slower warming trend
for Big Bend areas. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to persist.

Beyond Sunday, ua flow looks to back slightly to the southwest in
response to the next upper trough entering the PacNW and digging
into the Rockies early in the week. This trough could be our next
shot at rain for mainly eastern portions of the region, where best
moisture will exist. Forecast models differ on the speed of the
upper trough and therefore the arrival of the associated upper
forcing for ascent. Will keep silent PoPs in the forecast for
day 8 (next Tuesday) and continue to monitor the evolution of this
scenario in subsequent model runs.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 252312
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
512 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
See 00Z aviation discussin below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and west to southwest winds through most of the TAF period
shifting from the northeast late as a cold front arrives.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 223 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A few changes to the previous forecast but nothing too major, the
next 7 days look to remain relatively uneventful weather-wise across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This afternoon, temperatures
have generally warmed into 50s most locations with notable SW
winds gusting up to 25mph across northern zones. This is due to a
strengthening lee surface trough extending south through eastern
New Mexico. Elevated wind speeds continuing tonight will likely
keep overnight lows from tanking so bumped temps up a bit, closer
to warmer guidance.

Northwest flow aloft today will become nearly zonal Wednesday and
remain so through the weekend, keeping Arctic air bottled to the
north. A weak cold front will sink south into NE zones tomorrow
but a weak wind shift to the NE is all that is anticipated and
high temperatures will warm to the 60s most places. The warming
trend continues Thursday with the return of southerly winds at the
surface thanks to a developing lee surface trough. As this surface
trough extends southward Friday and Saturday, expect southwest
downsloping winds to push high temperatures near or above 70
through Sunday. Quick side note, a weak upper disturbance will
slowly move east over the southern half of the CWA Thursday and
Friday however the only affects seem to be a slower warming trend
for Big Bend areas. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to persist.

Beyond Sunday, ua flow looks to back slightly to the southwest in
response to the next upper trough entering the PacNW and digging
into the Rockies early in the week. This trough could be our next
shot at rain for mainly eastern portions of the region, where best
moisture will exist. Forecast models differ on the speed of the
upper trough and therefore the arrival of the associated upper
forcing for ascent. Will keep silent PoPs in the forecast for
day 8 (next Tuesday) and continue to monitor the evolution of this
scenario in subsequent model runs.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

10

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 252023
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A few changes to the previous forecast but nothing too major, the
next 7 days look to remain relatively uneventful weather-wise across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This afternoon, temperatures
have generally warmed into 50s most locations with notable SW
winds gusting up to 25mph across northern zones. This is due to a
strengthening lee surface trough extending south through eastern
New Mexico. Elevated wind speeds continuing tonight will likely
keep overnight lows from tanking so bumped temps up a bit, closer
to warmer guidance.

Northwest flow aloft today will become nearly zonal Wednesday and
remain so through the weekend, keeping Arctic air bottled to the
north. A weak cold front will sink south into NE zones tomorrow
but a weak wind shift to the NE is all that is anticipated and
high temperatures will warm to the 60s most places. The warming
trend continues Thursday with the return of southerly winds at the
surface thanks to a developing lee surface trough. As this surface
trough extends southward Friday and Saturday, expect southwest
downsloping winds to push high temperatures near or above 70
through Sunday. Quick side note, a weak upper disturbance will
slowly move east over the southern half of the CWA Thursday and
Friday however the only affects seem to be a slower warming trend
for Big Bend areas. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to persist.

Beyond Sunday, ua flow looks to back slightly to the southwest in
response to the next upper trough entering the PacNW and digging
into the Rockies early in the week. This trough could be our next
shot at rain for mainly eastern portions of the region, where best
moisture will exist. Forecast models differ on the speed of the
upper trough and therefore the arrival of the associated upper
forcing for ascent. Will keep silent PoPs in the forecast for
day 8 (next Tuesday) and continue to monitor the evolution of this
scenario in subsequent model runs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 33  62  34  65  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  63  37  66  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                31  63  31  65  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  34  69  39  66  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           37  68  38  68  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          33  58  37  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   30  61  32  63  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   22  62  24  63  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    34  64  35  65  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  35  64  36  65  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    31  66  32  67  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 252023
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
223 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A few changes to the previous forecast but nothing too major, the
next 7 days look to remain relatively uneventful weather-wise across
southeast New Mexico and west Texas. This afternoon, temperatures
have generally warmed into 50s most locations with notable SW
winds gusting up to 25mph across northern zones. This is due to a
strengthening lee surface trough extending south through eastern
New Mexico. Elevated wind speeds continuing tonight will likely
keep overnight lows from tanking so bumped temps up a bit, closer
to warmer guidance.

Northwest flow aloft today will become nearly zonal Wednesday and
remain so through the weekend, keeping Arctic air bottled to the
north. A weak cold front will sink south into NE zones tomorrow
but a weak wind shift to the NE is all that is anticipated and
high temperatures will warm to the 60s most places. The warming
trend continues Thursday with the return of southerly winds at the
surface thanks to a developing lee surface trough. As this surface
trough extends southward Friday and Saturday, expect southwest
downsloping winds to push high temperatures near or above 70
through Sunday. Quick side note, a weak upper disturbance will
slowly move east over the southern half of the CWA Thursday and
Friday however the only affects seem to be a slower warming trend
for Big Bend areas. Otherwise, expect dry conditions to persist.

Beyond Sunday, ua flow looks to back slightly to the southwest in
response to the next upper trough entering the PacNW and digging
into the Rockies early in the week. This trough could be our next
shot at rain for mainly eastern portions of the region, where best
moisture will exist. Forecast models differ on the speed of the
upper trough and therefore the arrival of the associated upper
forcing for ascent. Will keep silent PoPs in the forecast for
day 8 (next Tuesday) and continue to monitor the evolution of this
scenario in subsequent model runs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 33  62  34  65  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              35  63  37  66  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                31  63  31  65  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  34  69  39  66  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           37  68  38  68  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          33  58  37  60  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   30  61  32  63  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   22  62  24  63  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    34  64  35  65  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  35  64  36  65  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    31  66  32  67  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44/27

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251644
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1044 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in dry, westerly flow. A
cold front will seep into the NM terminals near the end of the
forecast period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Will begin the day with an upper trough extending down the center
of the country with a ridge over the western U.S.  This ridge will
build east over the region as the trough moves off toward the Atlantic.
The result will be mild wx for W TX and SE NM through the week.

Surface analysis indicates a weak front is moving through the area
this morning... will not be much cooling with it but the wind will
come around to the north.  However by late afternoon a SW wind will
return as a leeside trough develops.  Afternoon highs should end up
little changed from those yesterday with readings in the 50s.  May
see another brief wind shift to the north Wednesday but highs will
warm into the 60s.  Temperatures climb through the end of the week
into the weekend as upper flow becomes nearly zonal. Look for highs
around 70.

Scattered mid level clouds over the center of the area this morning
will keep moving off to the southeast... skies should be mostly
clear today.  Actually not a lot of clouds expected next few days so
should see mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.

Forecast looks dry for the rest of the week.  In the extended there
will be a chance of storms next Tuesday night as a strong upper
trough approaches the area from the west.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251644
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1044 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in dry, westerly flow. A
cold front will seep into the NM terminals near the end of the
forecast period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Will begin the day with an upper trough extending down the center
of the country with a ridge over the western U.S.  This ridge will
build east over the region as the trough moves off toward the Atlantic.
The result will be mild wx for W TX and SE NM through the week.

Surface analysis indicates a weak front is moving through the area
this morning... will not be much cooling with it but the wind will
come around to the north.  However by late afternoon a SW wind will
return as a leeside trough develops.  Afternoon highs should end up
little changed from those yesterday with readings in the 50s.  May
see another brief wind shift to the north Wednesday but highs will
warm into the 60s.  Temperatures climb through the end of the week
into the weekend as upper flow becomes nearly zonal. Look for highs
around 70.

Scattered mid level clouds over the center of the area this morning
will keep moving off to the southeast... skies should be mostly
clear today.  Actually not a lot of clouds expected next few days so
should see mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.

Forecast looks dry for the rest of the week.  In the extended there
will be a chance of storms next Tuesday night as a strong upper
trough approaches the area from the west.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251644
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1044 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

See Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours in dry, westerly flow. A
cold front will seep into the NM terminals near the end of the
forecast period.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Will begin the day with an upper trough extending down the center
of the country with a ridge over the western U.S.  This ridge will
build east over the region as the trough moves off toward the Atlantic.
The result will be mild wx for W TX and SE NM through the week.

Surface analysis indicates a weak front is moving through the area
this morning... will not be much cooling with it but the wind will
come around to the north.  However by late afternoon a SW wind will
return as a leeside trough develops.  Afternoon highs should end up
little changed from those yesterday with readings in the 50s.  May
see another brief wind shift to the north Wednesday but highs will
warm into the 60s.  Temperatures climb through the end of the week
into the weekend as upper flow becomes nearly zonal. Look for highs
around 70.

Scattered mid level clouds over the center of the area this morning
will keep moving off to the southeast... skies should be mostly
clear today.  Actually not a lot of clouds expected next few days so
should see mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.

Forecast looks dry for the rest of the week.  In the extended there
will be a chance of storms next Tuesday night as a strong upper
trough approaches the area from the west.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

44

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251128
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies through
the forecast period. Northwesterly winds will back to the
southwest by early this evening, with sustained wind speeds
expected to remain below 15KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Will begin the day with an upper trough extending down the center
of the country with a ridge over the western U.S.  This ridge will
build east over the region as the trough moves off toward the Atlantic.
The result will be mild wx for W TX and SE NM through the week.

Surface analysis indicates a weak front is moving through the area
this morning... will not be much cooling with it but the wind will
come around to the north.  However by late afternoon a SW wind will
return as a leeside trough develops.  Afternoon highs should end up
little changed from those yesterday with readings in the 50s.  May
see another brief wind shift to the north Wednesday but highs will
warm into the 60s.  Temperatures climb through the end of the week
into the weekend as upper flow becomes nearly zonal. Look for highs
around 70.

Scattered mid level clouds over the center of the area this morning
will keep moving off to the southeast... skies should be mostly
clear today.  Actually not a lot of clouds expected next few days so
should see mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.

Forecast looks dry for the rest of the week.  In the extended there
will be a chance of storms next Tuesday night as a strong upper
trough approaches the area from the west.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 251128
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
528 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

Please see the 12Z aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...

Dry, VFR conditions will prevail with mostly clear skies through
the forecast period. Northwesterly winds will back to the
southwest by early this evening, with sustained wind speeds
expected to remain below 15KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
Will begin the day with an upper trough extending down the center
of the country with a ridge over the western U.S.  This ridge will
build east over the region as the trough moves off toward the Atlantic.
The result will be mild wx for W TX and SE NM through the week.

Surface analysis indicates a weak front is moving through the area
this morning... will not be much cooling with it but the wind will
come around to the north.  However by late afternoon a SW wind will
return as a leeside trough develops.  Afternoon highs should end up
little changed from those yesterday with readings in the 50s.  May
see another brief wind shift to the north Wednesday but highs will
warm into the 60s.  Temperatures climb through the end of the week
into the weekend as upper flow becomes nearly zonal. Look for highs
around 70.

Scattered mid level clouds over the center of the area this morning
will keep moving off to the southeast... skies should be mostly
clear today.  Actually not a lot of clouds expected next few days so
should see mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.

Forecast looks dry for the rest of the week.  In the extended there
will be a chance of storms next Tuesday night as a strong upper
trough approaches the area from the west.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 250957
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
357 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Will begin the day with an upper trough extending down the center
of the country with a ridge over the western U.S.  This ridge will
build east over the region as the trough moves off toward the Atlantic.
The result will be mild wx for W TX and SE NM through the week.

Surface analysis indicates a weak front is moving through the area
this morning... will not be much cooling with it but the wind will
come around to the north.  However by late afternoon a SW wind will
return as a leeside trough develops.  Afternoon highs should end up
little changed from those yesterday with readings in the 50s.  May
see another brief wind shift to the north Wednesday but highs will
warm into the 60s.  Temperatures climb through the end of the week
into the weekend as upper flow becomes nearly zonal. Look for highs
around 70.

Scattered mid level clouds over the center of the area this morning
will keep moving off to the southeast... skies should be mostly
clear today.  Actually not a lot of clouds expected next few days so
should see mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.

Forecast looks dry for the rest of the week.  In the extended there
will be a chance of storms next Tuesday night as a strong upper
trough approaches the area from the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 55  32  60  31  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              57  34  60  34  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                56  31  62  31  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  34  68  37  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  37  67  36  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  33  57  34  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   55  31  59  31  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   52  19  60  22  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  33  61  32  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  35  60  33  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    57  31  65  30  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 250957
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
357 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
Will begin the day with an upper trough extending down the center
of the country with a ridge over the western U.S.  This ridge will
build east over the region as the trough moves off toward the Atlantic.
The result will be mild wx for W TX and SE NM through the week.

Surface analysis indicates a weak front is moving through the area
this morning... will not be much cooling with it but the wind will
come around to the north.  However by late afternoon a SW wind will
return as a leeside trough develops.  Afternoon highs should end up
little changed from those yesterday with readings in the 50s.  May
see another brief wind shift to the north Wednesday but highs will
warm into the 60s.  Temperatures climb through the end of the week
into the weekend as upper flow becomes nearly zonal. Look for highs
around 70.

Scattered mid level clouds over the center of the area this morning
will keep moving off to the southeast... skies should be mostly
clear today.  Actually not a lot of clouds expected next few days so
should see mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.

Forecast looks dry for the rest of the week.  In the extended there
will be a chance of storms next Tuesday night as a strong upper
trough approaches the area from the west.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ANDREWS TX                 55  32  60  31  /   0   0   0   0
BIG SPRING TX              57  34  60  34  /   0   0   0   0
CARLSBAD NM                56  31  62  31  /   0   0   0   0
DRYDEN TX                  62  34  68  37  /   0   0   0   0
FORT STOCKTON TX           57  37  67  36  /   0   0   0   0
GUADALUPE PASS TX          47  33  57  34  /   0   0   0   0
HOBBS NM                   55  31  59  31  /   0   0   0   0
MARFA TX                   52  19  60  22  /   0   0   0   0
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    56  33  61  32  /   0   0   0   0
ODESSA TX                  57  35  60  33  /   0   0   0   0
WINK TX                    57  31  65  30  /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

84/72

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000
FXUS64 KMAF 250434
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1034 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will continue to ease south through the area
overnight with north/northwest winds under 15kt sustained behind
it.  Due to ambient dry conditions, VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will quickly veer around to the southwest Tuesday afternoon,
but generally stay below 15kt sustained.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014/

A relatively benign weather pattern is in store for West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico this week, characterized generally by
above-normal temps and little to no precipitation.

Current WV imagery shows a broad trough over the central CONUS,
w/minor shortwaves digging SE thru this feature.  The first is due
thru tonight, pushing a weak cold front into the area, keeping temps
below normal Tuesday.  Models of late have carried a narrower
diurnal spread on temps than reality, and forecast soundings and H85
temp fields suggest guidance may be trying to warm things back up
too fast in the short term under NW flow aloft.  Even so, temps
should return to AOA normal by Wednesday afternoon, despite a
secondary weak front advertised for Wednesday afternoon.  NW flow
aloft then slowly begins transitioning to zonal into the weekend as
a broad, flat upper ridge builds in from the west.  Models develop a
stationary upper trough over Mexico into the weekend, but this will
have little effect on things here other than keeping temps down a
notch from where they otherwise would have been.  Temps peak
Saturday, then begin dropping as the upper ridge moves east in
response to a trough making landfall on the west coast. Models
attempt to bring in a third cold front Sunday night, but this looks
weak and stalls out mid-CWA, not even bringing temps back to normal
Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

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http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland







000
FXUS64 KMAF 250434
AFDMAF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1034 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

The latest Aviation Discussion is included below.

&&

.AVIATION...

A cold front will continue to ease south through the area
overnight with north/northwest winds under 15kt sustained behind
it.  Due to ambient dry conditions, VFR conditions will prevail.
Winds will quickly veer around to the southwest Tuesday afternoon,
but generally stay below 15kt sustained.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2014/

A relatively benign weather pattern is in store for West Texas
and Southeast New Mexico this week, characterized generally by
above-normal temps and little to no precipitation.

Current WV imagery shows a broad trough over the central CONUS,
w/minor shortwaves digging SE thru this feature.  The first is due
thru tonight, pushing a weak cold front into the area, keeping temps
below normal Tuesday.  Models of late have carried a narrower
diurnal spread on temps than reality, and forecast soundings and H85
temp fields suggest guidance may be trying to warm things back up
too fast in the short term under NW flow aloft.  Even so, temps
should return to AOA normal by Wednesday afternoon, despite a
secondary weak front advertised for Wednesday afternoon.  NW flow
aloft then slowly begins transitioning to zonal into the weekend as
a broad, flat upper ridge builds in from the west.  Models develop a
stationary upper trough over Mexico into the weekend, but this will
have little effect on things here other than keeping temps down a
notch from where they otherwise would have been.  Temps peak
Saturday, then begin dropping as the upper ridge moves east in
response to a trough making landfall on the west coast. Models
attempt to bring in a third cold front Sunday night, but this looks
weak and stalls out mid-CWA, not even bringing temps back to normal
Monday.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

$$

99

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at:
http://facebook.com/NWSMidland
http://twitter.com/NWSMidland

Check us out on the internet at:
http://weather.gov/midland








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