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000
FXUS64 KMEG 211121
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS RIDGING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO W TN AND N MS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER AR AND MO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE
ADVECTION. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NW. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND BECOME A LITTLE MILDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN LATE. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH AND BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 211121
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
521 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS RIDGING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO W TN AND N MS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER AR AND MO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE
ADVECTION. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NW. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND BECOME A LITTLE MILDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR WEATHER THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN LATE. LIGHT EAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTH AND BEGIN INCREASING OVERNIGHT.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 211008
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
408 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS RIDGING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO W TN AND N MS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER AR AND MO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE
ADVECTION. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NW. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND BECOME A LITTLE MILDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

MVFR CIGS MAY EDGE IN AN OUT OF THE JBR VCNTY OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ELEVATED STRATUS DECK OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 211008
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
408 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS RIDGING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO W TN AND N MS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER AR AND MO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE
ADVECTION. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NW. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND BECOME A LITTLE MILDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

MVFR CIGS MAY EDGE IN AN OUT OF THE JBR VCNTY OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ELEVATED STRATUS DECK OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 211008
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
408 AM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SFC HIGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY IS RIDGING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING PROVIDING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO W TN AND N MS.
FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER AR AND MO...SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE HIGH ARE PROVIDING LOW CLOUDS FROM MOISTURE
ADVECTION. EXPECT A MAINLY SUNNY DAY TODAY WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS
LINGERING THIS MORNING OVER PARTS OF THE NW. THE SFC HIGH WILL
RETREAT TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GIVING WAY TO THE
NEXT SYSTEM EARLY THIS WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AND
PROVIDE HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER NE MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
RAIN WILL LINGER BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWED BY CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CHRISTMAS DAY WILL BE SUNNY
AND BECOME A LITTLE MILDER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT
AND PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. EXPECT COOLER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS OVER THE COMING WEEKEND.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

MVFR CIGS MAY EDGE IN AN OUT OF THE JBR VCNTY OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ELEVATED STRATUS DECK OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 210531 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOW AND MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...NEAR IDEAL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE COOLING TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS WHERE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK EXISTS. GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THIS
DECK BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THESE AREAS FROM COOLING
AS RAPIDLY. A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE BUT A COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED EARLY.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

MVFR CIGS MAY EDGE IN AN OUT OF THE JBR VCNTY OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ELEVATED STRATUS DECK OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 210531 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

UPDATE...

CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOW AND MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...NEAR IDEAL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE COOLING TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS WHERE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK EXISTS. GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THIS
DECK BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THESE AREAS FROM COOLING
AS RAPIDLY. A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE BUT A COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED EARLY.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

MVFR CIGS MAY EDGE IN AN OUT OF THE JBR VCNTY OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE
EASTERN EDGE OF AN ELEVATED STRATUS DECK OVER THE OZARK PLATEAU.
OTHERWISE...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH TAF
SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 210244
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
844 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOW AND MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...NEAR IDEAL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE COOLING TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS WHERE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK EXISTS. GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THIS
DECK BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THESE AREAS FROM COOLING
AS RAPIDLY. A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE BUT A COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED EARLY.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MVFR CIGS NORTH OF JBR POSSIBLY DRIFTING
SOUTH AND SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AT MKL TOWARD 12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 210244
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
844 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN QUICKLY INTO THE LOW AND MID
30S ACROSS MUCH OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. WITH A SURFACE RIDGE NOSING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH...NEAR IDEAL CONDITIONS EXIST FOR A SIGNIFICANT
RADIATIONAL COMPONENT TO THE COOLING TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TO
THIS IS ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS WHERE A SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUD
DECK EXISTS. GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT IN ITS HANDLING OF THIS
DECK BUT IT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PREVENT THESE AREAS FROM COOLING
AS RAPIDLY. A QUICK WARMUP IS EXPECTED TOMORROW MORNING AFTER
SUNRISE BUT A COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED EARLY.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MVFR CIGS NORTH OF JBR POSSIBLY DRIFTING
SOUTH AND SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AT MKL TOWARD 12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 202334 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MVFR CIGS NORTH OF JBR POSSIBLY DRIFTING
SOUTH AND SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AT MKL TOWARD 12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 202334 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
534 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR MVFR CIGS NORTH OF JBR POSSIBLY DRIFTING
SOUTH AND SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG AT MKL TOWARD 12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 202031
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
231 PM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A 1025 MB
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW A
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS RESULTED IN PARTLY SUNNY SUNNY SKIES
NORTH OF I-40...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH HAVE REMAINED MOSTLY
SUNNY. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER TO THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT.
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW RETURNING TO THE MID
SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES DURING THE DAY MONDAY APPEAR TO BE MINIMAL AND
WENT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE AT BEST FOR NOW. BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT
AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS
BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE BETTER OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY AND STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL
RESIDE. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY. SOME
RESIDUAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN SHOWERS AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(CHRISTMAS DAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS
SUGGEST SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH CHRISTMAS NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER
POTENTIAL OF PRECIPITATION BACK TO THE MID SOUTH.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z CYCLE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 201708
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1108 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM CST ARE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES/CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z CYCLE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 201708
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1108 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM CST ARE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES/CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z CYCLE.

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 201636
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1036 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM CST ARE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES/CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH JBR POSSIBLY SEEING BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 201636
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1036 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS EXITED THE AREA WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BEGINNING TO BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES AS OF 10 AM CST ARE
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER/MIDDLE 40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WILL
MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES/CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR
SHORT TERM TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH JBR POSSIBLY SEEING BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 201123
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
523 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH JBR POSSIBLY SEEING BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 201123
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
523 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH JBR POSSIBLY SEEING BRIEF MVFR CIGS
THIS MORNING. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 200945
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

0515Z GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT PRECIP LIFTING OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED WRAP AROUND
PRECIP...LIKELY -RAPL... WAS NOTED ON RADAR NEAR JBR. OTHERWISE...
A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. MVFR/IFR WAS NOT TOO FAR REMOVED...
PER METARS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF AR.

VFR AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MEM THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT OUTBOUND CARGO PUSH...WITH STRATUS OVER AR REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL AFTER 12Z...AFFECTING MAINLY JBR.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 200945
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 AM CST SAT DEC 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SFC LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION TO OVER THE SE US IS ALSO MOVING FARTHER
TO THE EAST. A SFC HIGH WILL RIDGE IN FROM THE NE LATER TODAY INTO
SUNDAY. EXPECTING LOW CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY ERODE LATER TODAY
ALLOWING FOR A MAINLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE
NEXT SYSTEM WILL STREAM INTO THE AREA SUNDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY PROVIDING
A HIGH CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH BEHIND THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS OVER A PORTION OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.

A SFC HIGH WILL BE ALONG THE GULF COAST CHRISTMAS DAY WILL ALLOW
FOR SEASONABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

0515Z GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT PRECIP LIFTING OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED WRAP AROUND
PRECIP...LIKELY -RAPL... WAS NOTED ON RADAR NEAR JBR. OTHERWISE...
A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. MVFR/IFR WAS NOT TOO FAR REMOVED...
PER METARS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF AR.

VFR AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MEM THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT OUTBOUND CARGO PUSH...WITH STRATUS OVER AR REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL AFTER 12Z...AFFECTING MAINLY JBR.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 200533 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1133 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE INTERMITTENT SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS EVENING.
LOOKING A FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A FAIRLY DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
PRESENT WHICH LOOKS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO SUPPORT SLEET EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURE PROFILES DON`T
NECESSARILY LOOK CONDUCIVE. NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS IT
IS MELTING ON CONTACT AND VERY LIGHT IN NATURE. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT...EXITING BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IN THE FAR EAST. ALSO ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO MORE IN LINE WITH RAW GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
TIME PERIODS FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDSOUTH LOOK TO BE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A THIRD
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SYSTEM AND GULF COAST SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA. EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD MAINLY ACROSS
OUR MS COUNTIES...WITH LOWER POPS OVER TN. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT
IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD. MAY SEE A BRIEF MIXING WITH SNOW AS PRECIP
ENDS...WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. FLAT RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE CWA
MONDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM AHEAD
OF SYSTEM...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME POSITIVE AREA...SO WILL CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO SHOWERS
/CONVECTIVE/ VS STRATIFORM RAIN. COLD ADVECTION AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. MAY AGAIN SEE SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND PRECIP ENDS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...FLAT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD FORM OVER THE MIDSOUTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUE/WED SYSTEM. DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
INCREASES REGARDING STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF LATE-WEEK SYSTEM.
AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN BY FRIDAY...WITH
LOW POPS WARRANTED AS WARM ADVECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

GW/CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

0515Z GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT PRECIP LIFTING OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED WRAP AROUND
PRECIP...LIKELY -RAPL... WAS NOTED ON RADAR NEAR JBR. OTHERWISE...
A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. MVFR/IFR WAS NOT TOO FAR REMOVED...
PER METARS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF AR.

VFR AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MEM THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT OUTBOUND CARGO PUSH...WITH STRATUS OVER AR REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL AFTER 12Z...AFFECTING MAINLY JBR.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 200533 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1133 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE INTERMITTENT SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS EVENING.
LOOKING A FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A FAIRLY DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
PRESENT WHICH LOOKS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO SUPPORT SLEET EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURE PROFILES DON`T
NECESSARILY LOOK CONDUCIVE. NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS IT
IS MELTING ON CONTACT AND VERY LIGHT IN NATURE. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT...EXITING BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IN THE FAR EAST. ALSO ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO MORE IN LINE WITH RAW GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

TVT

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
TIME PERIODS FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDSOUTH LOOK TO BE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A THIRD
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SYSTEM AND GULF COAST SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA. EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD MAINLY ACROSS
OUR MS COUNTIES...WITH LOWER POPS OVER TN. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT
IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD. MAY SEE A BRIEF MIXING WITH SNOW AS PRECIP
ENDS...WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. FLAT RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE CWA
MONDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM AHEAD
OF SYSTEM...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME POSITIVE AREA...SO WILL CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO SHOWERS
/CONVECTIVE/ VS STRATIFORM RAIN. COLD ADVECTION AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. MAY AGAIN SEE SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND PRECIP ENDS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...FLAT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD FORM OVER THE MIDSOUTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUE/WED SYSTEM. DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
INCREASES REGARDING STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF LATE-WEEK SYSTEM.
AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN BY FRIDAY...WITH
LOW POPS WARRANTED AS WARM ADVECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

GW/CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

0515Z GOES IR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LIGHT PRECIP LIFTING OUT INTO OHIO VALLEY. ISOLATED WRAP AROUND
PRECIP...LIKELY -RAPL... WAS NOTED ON RADAR NEAR JBR. OTHERWISE...
A RELATIVELY DRY LOW LEVEL AIRMASS WITH VFR AND NORTHEAST WINDS
PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. MVFR/IFR WAS NOT TOO FAR REMOVED...
PER METARS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF AR.

VFR AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE AT MEM THROUGH THE
LATE NIGHT OUTBOUND CARGO PUSH...WITH STRATUS OVER AR REMAINING TO
THE WEST UNTIL AFTER 12Z...AFFECTING MAINLY JBR.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 200130
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE INTERMITTENT SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS EVENING.
LOOKING A FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A FAIRLY DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
PRESENT WHICH LOOKS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO SUPPORT SLEET EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURE PROFILES DON`T
NECESSARILY LOOK CONDUCIVE. NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS IT
IS MELTING ON CONTACT AND VERY LIGHT IN NATURE. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT...EXITING BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IN THE FAR EAST. ALSO ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO MORE IN LINE WITH RAW GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
TIME PERIODS FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDSOUTH LOOK TO BE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A THIRD
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SYSTEM AND GULF COAST SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA. EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD MAINLY ACROSS
OUR MS COUNTIES...WITH LOWER POPS OVER TN. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT
IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD. MAY SEE A BRIEF MIXING WITH SNOW AS PRECIP
ENDS...WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. FLAT RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE CWA
MONDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM AHEAD
OF SYSTEM...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME POSITIVE AREA...SO WILL CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO SHOWERS
/CONVECTIVE/ VS STRATIFORM RAIN. COLD ADVECTION AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. MAY AGAIN SEE SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND PRECIP ENDS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...FLAT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD FORM OVER THE MIDSOUTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUE/WED SYSTEM. DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
INCREASES REGARDING STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF LATE-WEEK SYSTEM.
AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN BY FRIDAY...WITH
LOW POPS WARRANTED AS WARM ADVECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

GW/CJC

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

SCT -RA WILL LIFT OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING...WITH THE
EXIT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE
LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH A FETCH OF DRIER AIR FROM
KY...EXPECT THE MVFR/IFR OVER CENTRAL AND AND WESTERN AR TO NOT
AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH TAF SITES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
JBR.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 200130
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE INTERMITTENT SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS EVENING.
LOOKING A FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A FAIRLY DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
PRESENT WHICH LOOKS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO SUPPORT SLEET EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURE PROFILES DON`T
NECESSARILY LOOK CONDUCIVE. NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS IT
IS MELTING ON CONTACT AND VERY LIGHT IN NATURE. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT...EXITING BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IN THE FAR EAST. ALSO ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO MORE IN LINE WITH RAW GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
TIME PERIODS FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDSOUTH LOOK TO BE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A THIRD
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SYSTEM AND GULF COAST SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA. EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD MAINLY ACROSS
OUR MS COUNTIES...WITH LOWER POPS OVER TN. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT
IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD. MAY SEE A BRIEF MIXING WITH SNOW AS PRECIP
ENDS...WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. FLAT RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE CWA
MONDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM AHEAD
OF SYSTEM...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME POSITIVE AREA...SO WILL CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO SHOWERS
/CONVECTIVE/ VS STRATIFORM RAIN. COLD ADVECTION AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. MAY AGAIN SEE SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND PRECIP ENDS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...FLAT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD FORM OVER THE MIDSOUTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUE/WED SYSTEM. DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
INCREASES REGARDING STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF LATE-WEEK SYSTEM.
AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN BY FRIDAY...WITH
LOW POPS WARRANTED AS WARM ADVECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

GW/CJC

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

SCT -RA WILL LIFT OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING...WITH THE
EXIT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE
LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH A FETCH OF DRIER AIR FROM
KY...EXPECT THE MVFR/IFR OVER CENTRAL AND AND WESTERN AR TO NOT
AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH TAF SITES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
JBR.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 200130
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

MADE A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIP TYPE TONIGHT ACROSS
NORTHERN ZONES WHERE INTERMITTENT SLEET HAS BEEN REPORTED THIS EVENING.
LOOKING A FORECAST SOUNDINGS...A FAIRLY DRY NEAR SURFACE LAYER IS
PRESENT WHICH LOOKS TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO SUPPORT SLEET EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURE PROFILES DON`T
NECESSARILY LOOK CONDUCIVE. NEGLIGIBLE IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED AS IT
IS MELTING ON CONTACT AND VERY LIGHT IN NATURE. THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT...EXITING BY 12Z TOMORROW
MORNING IN THE FAR EAST. ALSO ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A
DEGREE OR TWO MORE IN LINE WITH RAW GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
TIME PERIODS FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDSOUTH LOOK TO BE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A THIRD
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SYSTEM AND GULF COAST SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA. EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD MAINLY ACROSS
OUR MS COUNTIES...WITH LOWER POPS OVER TN. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT
IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD. MAY SEE A BRIEF MIXING WITH SNOW AS PRECIP
ENDS...WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. FLAT RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE CWA
MONDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM AHEAD
OF SYSTEM...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME POSITIVE AREA...SO WILL CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO SHOWERS
/CONVECTIVE/ VS STRATIFORM RAIN. COLD ADVECTION AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. MAY AGAIN SEE SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND PRECIP ENDS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...FLAT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD FORM OVER THE MIDSOUTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUE/WED SYSTEM. DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
INCREASES REGARDING STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF LATE-WEEK SYSTEM.
AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN BY FRIDAY...WITH
LOW POPS WARRANTED AS WARM ADVECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

GW/CJC

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

SCT -RA WILL LIFT OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING...WITH THE
EXIT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE
LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH A FETCH OF DRIER AIR FROM
KY...EXPECT THE MVFR/IFR OVER CENTRAL AND AND WESTERN AR TO NOT
AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH TAF SITES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
JBR.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 192351 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
551 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
TIME PERIODS FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDSOUTH LOOK TO BE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A THIRD
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SYSTEM AND GULF COAST SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA. EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD MAINLY ACROSS
OUR MS COUNTIES...WITH LOWER POPS OVER TN. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT
IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD. MAY SEE A BRIEF MIXING WITH SNOW AS PRECIP
ENDS...WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. FLAT RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE CWA
MONDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM AHEAD
OF SYSTEM...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME POSITIVE AREA...SO WILL CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO SHOWERS
/CONVECTIVE/ VS STRATIFORM RAIN. COLD ADVECTION AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. MAY AGAIN SEE SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND PRECIP ENDS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...FLAT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD FORM OVER THE MIDSOUTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUE/WED SYSTEM. DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
INCREASES REGARDING STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF LATE-WEEK SYSTEM.
AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN BY FRIDAY...WITH
LOW POPS WARRANTED AS WARM ADVECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

GW/CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

SCT -RA WILL LIFT OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING...WITH THE
EXIT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL IN THE
LOW LEVELS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WITH A FETCH OF DRIER AIR FROM
KY...EXPECT THE MVFR/IFR OVER CENTRAL AND AND WESTERN AR TO NOT
AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH TAF SITES...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF
JBR.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 192054
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
254 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
TIME PERIODS FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDSOUTH LOOK TO BE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A THIRD
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SYSTEM AND GULF COAST SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA. EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD MAINLY ACROSS
OUR MS COUNTIES...WITH LOWER POPS OVER TN. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT
IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD. MAY SEE A BRIEF MIXING WITH SNOW AS PRECIP
ENDS...WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. FLAT RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE CWA
MONDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM AHEAD
OF SYSTEM...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME POSITIVE AREA...SO WILL CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO SHOWERS
/CONVECTIVE/ VS STRATIFORM RAIN. COLD ADVECTION AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. MAY AGAIN SEE SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND PRECIP ENDS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...FLAT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD FORM OVER THE MIDSOUTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUE/WED SYSTEM. DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
INCREASES REGARDING STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF LATE-WEEK SYSTEM.
AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN BY FRIDAY...WITH
LOW POPS WARRANTED AS WARM ADVECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

GW/CJC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

AVIATION SHOULD NOT BE TOO PROBLEMATIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS AT ANY STATION SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED WITH VIRTUALLY NO RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE GRADUALLY BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WITH VFR CONDS AREA WIDE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON STATION
WILL BE AT TUP BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z. TUP IS THE ONLY STATION WHERE
I FEEL PREVAILING RAIN IS EXPECTED. DECIDED TO TEMPO RAIN FOR THE
SAME TIME PERIOD AT MEM AND JUST CARRY VCSH AT JBR AND MKL.
PREVAILING VIS SHOULD STAY MVFR OR GREATER. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 3-8 KTS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 192054
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
254 PM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. PRIMARY
TIME PERIODS FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE MIDSOUTH LOOK TO BE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY...AND TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A THIRD
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER
SYSTEM AND GULF COAST SURFACE LOW IS MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA. EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD MAINLY ACROSS
OUR MS COUNTIES...WITH LOWER POPS OVER TN. PRECIP SHOULD MOVE OUT
IN THE 06-12Z PERIOD. MAY SEE A BRIEF MIXING WITH SNOW AS PRECIP
ENDS...WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. FLAT RIDGING SHOULD PERSIST OVER
THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NEXT SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE CWA
MONDAY...AND MOVE ACROSS MAINLY ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM AHEAD
OF SYSTEM...WITH COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SOME POSITIVE AREA...SO WILL CHANGE PRECIP TYPE TO SHOWERS
/CONVECTIVE/ VS STRATIFORM RAIN. COLD ADVECTION AT SURFACE AND
ALOFT AS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS. MAY AGAIN SEE SNOW MIXING WITH RAIN
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT AND PRECIP ENDS...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...FLAT UPPER RIDGING SHOULD FORM OVER THE MIDSOUTH IN THE
WAKE OF THE TUE/WED SYSTEM. DISAGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
INCREASES REGARDING STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF LATE-WEEK SYSTEM.
AT ANY RATE...SHOULD SEE SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURN BY FRIDAY...WITH
LOW POPS WARRANTED AS WARM ADVECTION BECOMES ESTABLISHED.

GW/CJC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

AVIATION SHOULD NOT BE TOO PROBLEMATIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS AT ANY STATION SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED WITH VIRTUALLY NO RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE GRADUALLY BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WITH VFR CONDS AREA WIDE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON STATION
WILL BE AT TUP BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z. TUP IS THE ONLY STATION WHERE
I FEEL PREVAILING RAIN IS EXPECTED. DECIDED TO TEMPO RAIN FOR THE
SAME TIME PERIOD AT MEM AND JUST CARRY VCSH AT JBR AND MKL.
PREVAILING VIS SHOULD STAY MVFR OR GREATER. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 3-8 KTS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 191728
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...

MORNING TEMPS STARTING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST VALUES. ADJUSTED
FRIDAY HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUING AND LIGHT PRECIP
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.

GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED ACROSS
THE AREA AND TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST AS A MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL NE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING A LOT WEAKER AND TRACKING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS DEPICTED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
DRY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS NE PARTS
OF WEST TN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...MODELS WANT TO CLEAR SKIES OUT QUICKLY ON SATURDAY BUT
GIVEN CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...IN THE
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. A SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. MAY THROW A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN INTO THE
VERY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HEADS EAST AND
MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW FLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE PRECIP WRAPS UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS...WEDNESDAY LOOKS COOL AND DRY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LINGERING STRATOCU. SUN SHOULD COME OUT FOR CHRISTMAS
WITH MILDER SW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50F TO 55F RANGE.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

AVIATION SHOULD NOT BE TOO PROBLEMATIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS AT ANY STATION SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED WITH VIRTUALLY NO RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE GRADUALLY BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WITH VFR CONDS AREA WIDE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON STATION
WILL BE AT TUP BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z. TUP IS THE ONLY STATION WHERE
I FEEL PREVAILING RAIN IS EXPECTED. DECIDED TO TEMPO RAIN FOR THE
SAME TIME PERIOD AT MEM AND JUST CARRY VCSH AT JBR AND MKL.
PREVAILING VIS SHOULD STAY MVFR OR GREATER. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 3-8 KTS.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 191728
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

UPDATE...

MORNING TEMPS STARTING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST VALUES. ADJUSTED
FRIDAY HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUING AND LIGHT PRECIP
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.

GW

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED ACROSS
THE AREA AND TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST AS A MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL NE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING A LOT WEAKER AND TRACKING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS DEPICTED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
DRY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS NE PARTS
OF WEST TN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...MODELS WANT TO CLEAR SKIES OUT QUICKLY ON SATURDAY BUT
GIVEN CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...IN THE
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. A SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. MAY THROW A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN INTO THE
VERY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HEADS EAST AND
MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW FLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE PRECIP WRAPS UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS...WEDNESDAY LOOKS COOL AND DRY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LINGERING STRATOCU. SUN SHOULD COME OUT FOR CHRISTMAS
WITH MILDER SW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50F TO 55F RANGE.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

AVIATION SHOULD NOT BE TOO PROBLEMATIC OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED. SHOWERS AT ANY STATION SHOULD BE
SHORT LIVED WITH VIRTUALLY NO RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD
IMPROVE GRADUALLY BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WITH VFR CONDS AREA WIDE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR RAIN ON STATION
WILL BE AT TUP BETWEEN 00 AND 04Z. TUP IS THE ONLY STATION WHERE
I FEEL PREVAILING RAIN IS EXPECTED. DECIDED TO TEMPO RAIN FOR THE
SAME TIME PERIOD AT MEM AND JUST CARRY VCSH AT JBR AND MKL.
PREVAILING VIS SHOULD STAY MVFR OR GREATER. WINDS WILL BE EAST TO
NORTHEAST BETWEEN 3-8 KTS.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 191521
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
921 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

MORNING TEMPS STARTING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST VALUES. ADJUSTED
FRIDAY HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUING AND LIGHT PRECIP
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.

GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED ACROSS
THE AREA AND TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST AS A MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL NE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING A LOT WEAKER AND TRACKING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS DEPICTED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
DRY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS NE PARTS
OF WEST TN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...MODELS WANT TO CLEAR SKIES OUT QUICKLY ON SATURDAY BUT
GIVEN CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...IN THE
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. A SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. MAY THROW A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN INTO THE
VERY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HEADS EAST AND
MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW FLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE PRECIP WRAPS UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS...WEDNESDAY LOOKS COOL AND DRY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LINGERING STRATOCU. SUN SHOULD COME OUT FOR CHRISTMAS
WITH MILDER SW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50F TO 55F RANGE.

SJM

AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

CHALLENGING TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS AS DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS GULF
COAST. CIGS WILL VARY FROM IFR...MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH CONFIDENCE THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES EXCEPT JBR...WITH TUP SEEING THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 3-8 KTS.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 191521
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
921 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...

MORNING TEMPS STARTING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FORECAST VALUES. ADJUSTED
FRIDAY HIGH TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT
TRENDS. WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER CONTINUING AND LIGHT PRECIP
APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN CWA...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED
AT THIS TIME.

GW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 535 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED ACROSS
THE AREA AND TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST AS A MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL NE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING A LOT WEAKER AND TRACKING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS DEPICTED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
DRY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS NE PARTS
OF WEST TN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...MODELS WANT TO CLEAR SKIES OUT QUICKLY ON SATURDAY BUT
GIVEN CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...IN THE
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. A SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. MAY THROW A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN INTO THE
VERY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HEADS EAST AND
MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW FLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE PRECIP WRAPS UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS...WEDNESDAY LOOKS COOL AND DRY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LINGERING STRATOCU. SUN SHOULD COME OUT FOR CHRISTMAS
WITH MILDER SW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50F TO 55F RANGE.

SJM

AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

CHALLENGING TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS AS DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS GULF
COAST. CIGS WILL VARY FROM IFR...MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH CONFIDENCE THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES EXCEPT JBR...WITH TUP SEEING THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 3-8 KTS.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 191135
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
535 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED ACROSS
THE AREA AND TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST AS A MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL NE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING A LOT WEAKER AND TRACKING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS DEPICTED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
DRY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS NE PARTS
OF WEST TN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...MODELS WANT TO CLEAR SKIES OUT QUICKLY ON SATURDAY BUT
GIVEN CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...IN THE
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. A SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. MAY THROW A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN INTO THE
VERY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HEADS EAST AND
MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW FLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE PRECIP WRAPS UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS...WEDNESDAY LOOKS COOL AND DRY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LINGERING STRATOCU. SUN SHOULD COME OUT FOR CHRISTMAS
WITH MILDER SW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50F TO 55F RANGE.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

CHALLENGING TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS AS DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS GULF
COAST. CIGS WILL VARY FROM IFR...MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH CONFIDENCE THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES EXCEPT JBR...WITH TUP SEEING THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 3-8 KTS.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 191135
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
535 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED ACROSS
THE AREA AND TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST AS A MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL NE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING A LOT WEAKER AND TRACKING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS DEPICTED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
DRY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS NE PARTS
OF WEST TN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...MODELS WANT TO CLEAR SKIES OUT QUICKLY ON SATURDAY BUT
GIVEN CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...IN THE
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. A SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. MAY THROW A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN INTO THE
VERY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HEADS EAST AND
MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW FLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE PRECIP WRAPS UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS...WEDNESDAY LOOKS COOL AND DRY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LINGERING STRATOCU. SUN SHOULD COME OUT FOR CHRISTMAS
WITH MILDER SW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50F TO 55F RANGE.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

CHALLENGING TAFS NEXT 24 HOURS AS DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS GULF
COAST. CIGS WILL VARY FROM IFR...MVFR AND VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH CONFIDENCE THAT THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE
DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN AND FOG WILL
DEVELOP AT ALL SITES EXCEPT JBR...WITH TUP SEEING THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION. GENERALLY WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 3-8 KTS.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 191011
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
411 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED ACROSS
THE AREA AND TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST AS A MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL NE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING A LOT WEAKER AND TRACKING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS DEPICTED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
DRY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS NE PARTS
OF WEST TN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...MODELS WANT TO CLEAR SKIES OUT QUICKLY ON SATURDAY BUT
GIVEN CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...IN THE
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. A SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. MAY THROW A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN INTO THE
VERY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HEADS EAST AND
MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW FLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE PRECIP WRAPS UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS...WEDNESDAY LOOKS COOL AND DRY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LINGERING STRATOCU. SUN SHOULD COME OUT FOR CHRISTMAS
WITH MILDER SW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50F TO 55F RANGE.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

LOWER CIGS AND FOG HAVE YET TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AR/WEST
TN...THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF LOWER CIGS AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING TO ~1000FT AT BOTH JBR AND MEM OVERNIGHT
WITH AT LEAST SOME VISBY REDUCTION DUE TO FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. CIGS LIFT A BIT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
REGION BEGINNING AROUND 21Z TOMORROW AT TUP AND MEM. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXISTS AT TUP WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST 04Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 191011
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
411 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED ACROSS
THE AREA AND TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST AS A MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL NE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING A LOT WEAKER AND TRACKING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS DEPICTED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
DRY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS NE PARTS
OF WEST TN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...MODELS WANT TO CLEAR SKIES OUT QUICKLY ON SATURDAY BUT
GIVEN CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...IN THE
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. A SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. MAY THROW A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN INTO THE
VERY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HEADS EAST AND
MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW FLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE PRECIP WRAPS UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS...WEDNESDAY LOOKS COOL AND DRY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LINGERING STRATOCU. SUN SHOULD COME OUT FOR CHRISTMAS
WITH MILDER SW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50F TO 55F RANGE.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

LOWER CIGS AND FOG HAVE YET TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AR/WEST
TN...THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF LOWER CIGS AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING TO ~1000FT AT BOTH JBR AND MEM OVERNIGHT
WITH AT LEAST SOME VISBY REDUCTION DUE TO FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. CIGS LIFT A BIT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
REGION BEGINNING AROUND 21Z TOMORROW AT TUP AND MEM. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXISTS AT TUP WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST 04Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 191011
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
411 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED ACROSS
THE AREA AND TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST AS A MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL NE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING A LOT WEAKER AND TRACKING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS DEPICTED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
DRY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS NE PARTS
OF WEST TN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...MODELS WANT TO CLEAR SKIES OUT QUICKLY ON SATURDAY BUT
GIVEN CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...IN THE
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. A SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. MAY THROW A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN INTO THE
VERY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HEADS EAST AND
MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW FLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE PRECIP WRAPS UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS...WEDNESDAY LOOKS COOL AND DRY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LINGERING STRATOCU. SUN SHOULD COME OUT FOR CHRISTMAS
WITH MILDER SW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50F TO 55F RANGE.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

LOWER CIGS AND FOG HAVE YET TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AR/WEST
TN...THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF LOWER CIGS AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING TO ~1000FT AT BOTH JBR AND MEM OVERNIGHT
WITH AT LEAST SOME VISBY REDUCTION DUE TO FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. CIGS LIFT A BIT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
REGION BEGINNING AROUND 21Z TOMORROW AT TUP AND MEM. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXISTS AT TUP WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST 04Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 191011
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
411 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH
COOL NE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. LOW CLOUDS ARE TRAPPED ACROSS
THE AREA AND TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TODAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF
COAST AS A MID LEVEL TROF APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. RAIN WILL
SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING THE DAY
AND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. COOL NE
FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
FROM AROUND 40 NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE
GULF COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS LOOKING A LOT WEAKER AND TRACKING MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN MODELS DEPICTED A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO. THE RAIN
SHIELD WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
WILL BE SOUTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
EVENING. RAIN WILL MOSTLY TAPER OFF BY MIDNIGHT WITH MOST PLACES
DRY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS NE PARTS
OF WEST TN AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT CHANCES ARE PRECIP WILL END BEFORE
THAT HAPPENS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S NORTH TO UPPER
30S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...MODELS WANT TO CLEAR SKIES OUT QUICKLY ON SATURDAY BUT
GIVEN CONTINUED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
NE SURFACE FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS
WILL HANG ON. INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THE MORNING WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING FOR THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE COOL...IN THE
40S.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD
PARTLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH TEMPS IN THE 30S. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY
AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH HIGHS AROUND 50. A SYSTEM MOVING FROM
THE GULF INTO THE SE U.S. MAY THROW A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN INTO THE
VERY EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY HEADS EAST AND
MILDER SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL JUMP INTO THE 50S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
WITH RAIN LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY TUESDAY. EXPECT
FALLING TEMPS AS A MUCH COOLER AIRMASS MOVES IN TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
A FEW FLAKES COULD MIX IN ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE PRECIP WRAPS UP
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND CHRISTMAS...WEDNESDAY LOOKS COOL AND DRY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND LINGERING STRATOCU. SUN SHOULD COME OUT FOR CHRISTMAS
WITH MILDER SW FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. HIGH TEMPS
SHOULD BE IN THE 50F TO 55F RANGE.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

LOWER CIGS AND FOG HAVE YET TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AR/WEST
TN...THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF LOWER CIGS AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING TO ~1000FT AT BOTH JBR AND MEM OVERNIGHT
WITH AT LEAST SOME VISBY REDUCTION DUE TO FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. CIGS LIFT A BIT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
REGION BEGINNING AROUND 21Z TOMORROW AT TUP AND MEM. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXISTS AT TUP WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST 04Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 190525
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.UPDATE DISCUSSION

A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING AS WEAK NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES. THE FLOW ABOVE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING MOISTURE
OVER THE NEAR SURFACE COLD STABLE LAYER. THIS MAY HELP TO ENHANCE
SOME ADVECTION FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS...4-6SM...AND NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE
FOG AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD ALSO PERSIST OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE FIRST UPPER
SYSTEM IS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION. WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY BEFORE THE SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES.

PRECIP FROM SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BLENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND LOW-LEVEL
TEMP FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP FALLING AS ALL RAIN. MAY
SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS/SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA ON WEDNESDAY UNDER SW EDGE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. FLAT UPPER RIDGING BECOMES BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED BEFORE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO DID NOT STRAY
FAR. STEADY/SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY.

GW/CJC

AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

LOWER CIGS AND FOG HAVE YET TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AR/WEST
TN...THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF LOWER CIGS AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING TO ~1000FT AT BOTH JBR AND MEM OVERNIGHT
WITH AT LEAST SOME VISBY REDUCTION DUE TO FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. CIGS LIFT A BIT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
REGION BEGINNING AROUND 21Z TOMORROW AT TUP AND MEM. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXISTS AT TUP WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST 04Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 190525
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.UPDATE DISCUSSION

A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRENCHED
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS EVENING AS WEAK NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUES. THE FLOW ABOVE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING MOISTURE
OVER THE NEAR SURFACE COLD STABLE LAYER. THIS MAY HELP TO ENHANCE
SOME ADVECTION FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...VISIBILITIES
SHOULD REMAIN AT MVFR LEVELS...4-6SM...AND NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE
FOG AT THIS TIME. LOW LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD ALSO PERSIST OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE FIRST UPPER
SYSTEM IS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION. WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY BEFORE THE SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES.

PRECIP FROM SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BLENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND LOW-LEVEL
TEMP FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP FALLING AS ALL RAIN. MAY
SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS/SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA ON WEDNESDAY UNDER SW EDGE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. FLAT UPPER RIDGING BECOMES BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED BEFORE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO DID NOT STRAY
FAR. STEADY/SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY.

GW/CJC

AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

LOWER CIGS AND FOG HAVE YET TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN AR/WEST
TN...THEREFORE HAVE BACKED OFF LOWER CIGS AT THIS TIME. STILL
EXPECT A GRADUAL LOWERING TO ~1000FT AT BOTH JBR AND MEM OVERNIGHT
WITH AT LEAST SOME VISBY REDUCTION DUE TO FOG DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY. CIGS LIFT A BIT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
REGION BEGINNING AROUND 21Z TOMORROW AT TUP AND MEM. A BETTER
CHANCE OF RAINFALL EXISTS AT TUP WHICH SHOULD LAST THROUGH AT
LEAST 04Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 190313
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
913 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCREASE LOW TEMPERATURES AND ADD SOME FOG TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRECHED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS EVENING AS WEAK NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. THE FLOW
ABOVE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE NEAR SURFACE COLD
STABLE LAYER. THIS MAY HELP TO ENHANCE SOME ADVECTION
FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT MVFR
LEVELS...4-6SM...AND NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME. LOW
LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD ALSO PERSIST OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE FIRST UPPER
SYSTEM IS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION. WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY BEFORE THE SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES.

PRECIP FROM SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BLENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND LOW-LEVEL
TEMP FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP FALLING AS ALL RAIN. MAY
SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS/SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA ON WEDNESDAY UNDER SW EDGE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. FLAT UPPER RIDGING BECOMES BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED BEFORE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO DID NOT STRAY
FAR. STEADY/SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY.

GW/CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME LOWER CIGS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. BELIEVE THAT
THESE WILL DEVELOP EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND CIGS COULD
EVENTUALLY APPROACH IFR CRITERIA BY 08Z AT JBR...MEM AND MKL. IT
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT HOW LOW SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL
FALL...HOWEVER...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DO EXIST
SO HAVE REPRESENTED SUCH IN THE TAFS...MAINLY FOR JBR...MEM AND
MKL ONCE AGAIN. WILL MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CIGS WILL LIFT GRADUALLY TOMORROW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
WHICH COULD BEGIN TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO TUP AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 190313
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
913 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCREASE LOW TEMPERATURES AND ADD SOME FOG TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COOL AND MOIST AIRMASS REMAINS ENTRECHED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THIS EVENING AS WEAK NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES. THE FLOW
ABOVE WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE NEAR SURFACE COLD
STABLE LAYER. THIS MAY HELP TO ENHANCE SOME ADVECTION
FOG...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS POINT...VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT MVFR
LEVELS...4-6SM...AND NOT ANTICIPATING DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME. LOW
LEVEL STRATUS SHOULD ALSO PERSIST OVER THE ENTIRE REGION THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE FIRST UPPER
SYSTEM IS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION. WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY BEFORE THE SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES.

PRECIP FROM SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BLENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND LOW-LEVEL
TEMP FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP FALLING AS ALL RAIN. MAY
SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS/SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA ON WEDNESDAY UNDER SW EDGE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. FLAT UPPER RIDGING BECOMES BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED BEFORE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO DID NOT STRAY
FAR. STEADY/SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY.

GW/CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME LOWER CIGS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. BELIEVE THAT
THESE WILL DEVELOP EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND CIGS COULD
EVENTUALLY APPROACH IFR CRITERIA BY 08Z AT JBR...MEM AND MKL. IT
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT HOW LOW SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL
FALL...HOWEVER...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DO EXIST
SO HAVE REPRESENTED SUCH IN THE TAFS...MAINLY FOR JBR...MEM AND
MKL ONCE AGAIN. WILL MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CIGS WILL LIFT GRADUALLY TOMORROW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
WHICH COULD BEGIN TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO TUP AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 182322
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
522 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE FIRST UPPER
SYSTEM IS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION. WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY BEFORE THE SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES.

PRECIP FROM SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BLENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND LOW-LEVEL
TEMP FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP FALLING AS ALL RAIN. MAY
SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS/SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA ON WEDNESDAY UNDER SW EDGE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. FLAT UPPER RIDGING BECOMES BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED BEFORE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO DID NOT STRAY
FAR. STEADY/SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY.

GW/CJC

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME LOWER CIGS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. BELIEVE THAT
THESE WILL DEVELOP EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND CIGS COULD
EVENTUALLY APPROACH IFR CRITERIA BY 08Z AT JBR...MEM AND MKL. IT
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT HOW LOW SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL
FALL...HOWEVER...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DO EXIST
SO HAVE REPRESENTED SUCH IN THE TAFS...MAINLY FOR JBR...MEM AND
MKL ONCE AGAIN. WILL MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CIGS WILL LIFT GRADUALLY TOMORROW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
WHICH COULD BEGIN TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO TUP AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 182322
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
522 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE FIRST UPPER
SYSTEM IS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION. WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY BEFORE THE SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES.

PRECIP FROM SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BLENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND LOW-LEVEL
TEMP FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP FALLING AS ALL RAIN. MAY
SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS/SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA ON WEDNESDAY UNDER SW EDGE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. FLAT UPPER RIDGING BECOMES BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED BEFORE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO DID NOT STRAY
FAR. STEADY/SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY.

GW/CJC

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT OBSERVATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME LOWER CIGS AND FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARKANSAS. BELIEVE THAT
THESE WILL DEVELOP EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND CIGS COULD
EVENTUALLY APPROACH IFR CRITERIA BY 08Z AT JBR...MEM AND MKL. IT
IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT HOW LOW SURFACE VISIBILITIES WILL
FALL...HOWEVER...FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT DO EXIST
SO HAVE REPRESENTED SUCH IN THE TAFS...MAINLY FOR JBR...MEM AND
MKL ONCE AGAIN. WILL MONITOR HOW THIS EVOLVES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CIGS WILL LIFT GRADUALLY TOMORROW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SYSTEM
WHICH COULD BEGIN TO BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO TUP AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 182139
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE FIRST UPPER
SYSTEM IS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION. WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY BEFORE THE SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES.

PRECIP FROM SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BLENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND LOW-LEVEL
TEMP FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP FALLING AS ALL RAIN. MAY
SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS/SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA ON WEDNESDAY UNDER SW EDGE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. FLAT UPPER RIDGING BECOMES BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED BEFORE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO DID NOT STRAY
FAR. STEADY/SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY.

GW/CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

RAIN SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH THE WILL TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY DOWN
TO IFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT JBR AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WINDS EAST AROUND 5 KT AT ALL SITED THROUGH 19/18Z.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 182139
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
339 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THIS FORECAST CYCLE. THE FIRST UPPER
SYSTEM IS ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT
MORNING. BULK OF PRECIP WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...WITH PRIMARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF COAST
REGION. WEAK RIDGING TO MOVE OVER AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY BEFORE THE SECOND SYSTEM APPROACHES.

PRECIP FROM SECOND SYSTEM SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. BLENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND LOW-LEVEL
TEMP FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRECIP FALLING AS ALL RAIN. MAY
SEE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS/SLIGHT PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHEAST CWA ON WEDNESDAY UNDER SW EDGE OF DEPARTING UPPER
SYSTEM. FLAT UPPER RIDGING BECOMES BRIEFLY ESTABLISHED BEFORE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SO DID NOT STRAY
FAR. STEADY/SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH COOLER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY.

GW/CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

RAIN SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH THE WILL TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY DOWN
TO IFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT JBR AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WINDS EAST AROUND 5 KT AT ALL SITED THROUGH 19/18Z.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 181739
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1139 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS DEPARTED THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO
MENTION. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY SENT.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SOME SLEET MIXED
IN AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. AS THE BAND
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING THERE COULD
BE SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

ON FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND MOVE
NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THE LOW SLIDES FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ENDING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY AND CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY
COOL. A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD
THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BE ENDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

RAIN SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH THE WILL TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY DOWN
TO IFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT JBR AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WINDS EAST AROUND 5 KT AT ALL SITED THROUGH 19/18Z.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 181739
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1139 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE THE SHORTWAVE WHICH BROUGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LAST NIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS DEPARTED THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
REMOVED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AS ANY CHANCES REMAIN TOO LOW TO
MENTION. UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

UPDATED GRIDS ALREADY SENT.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SOME SLEET MIXED
IN AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. AS THE BAND
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING THERE COULD
BE SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

ON FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND MOVE
NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THE LOW SLIDES FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ENDING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY AND CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY
COOL. A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD
THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BE ENDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

RAIN SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH THE WILL TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY DOWN
TO IFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT JBR AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WINDS EAST AROUND 5 KT AT ALL SITED THROUGH 19/18Z.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 181727
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1127 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SOME SLEET MIXED
IN AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. AS THE BAND
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING THERE COULD
BE SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

ON FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND MOVE
NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THE LOW SLIDES FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ENDING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY AND CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY
COOL. A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD
THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BE ENDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

RAIN SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH THE WILL TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY DOWN
TO IFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT JBR AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WINDS EAST AROUND 5 KT AT ALL SITED THROUGH 19/18Z.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 181727
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1127 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM CST THU DEC 18 2014/

SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S. A LARGE AREA OF
PRECIPITATION IS MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN WITH SOME SLEET MIXED
IN AT TIMES MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. AS THE BAND
OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THIS MORNING THERE COULD
BE SOME SLEET MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN AT TIMES. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE CHILLY SIDE AS CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT BUT
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN CHILLY WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

ON FRIDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH TEXAS AND MOVE
NORTHEAST REACHING SOUTHWEST ALABAMA BY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. AS TEMPERATURES COOL LATE FRIDAY NIGHT A MIX OF RAIN AND
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THE LOW SLIDES FURTHER EAST ON SATURDAY...PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ENDING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY KEEPING THINGS DRY AND CONTINUED UNSEASONABLY
COOL. A NEW STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
TUESDAY WITH MORE RAIN EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD
THE EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY RAIN WILL BE ENDING OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

RAIN SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL...ALTHOUGH THE WILL TREND LOWER OVERNIGHT POSSIBLY DOWN
TO IFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY AT JBR AHEAD OF THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION. WINDS EAST AROUND 5 KT AT ALL SITED THROUGH 19/18Z.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





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