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000
FXUS64 KMEG 211109
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN RAIN FREE WEATHER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHILE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. HEAT
CONCERNS FOR TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHALLENGES IN THIS
MORNING/S FORECAST.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVERALL IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP A MAJORITY IF NOT ALL OF THE MID SOUTH RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS YESTERDAY MORNING MIXED
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WOULD EXPECT THE SAME TO OCCUR
TODAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER THIS MORNING THAN
YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY AND THINK HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW
105 DEGREES. /HEAT INDEX READINGS 105 OR GREATER FOR ADVISORIES/ AS A
RESULT...I/VE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEAT HEADLINES
FOR TODAY AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS ANY POTENTIAL IF
CONDITIONS WOULD WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. A CONTINUATION OF VERY
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S WILL SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY WORK ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED BY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING REACHED EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS INDICATES A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ECMWF KEEPS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THE ECMWF MAY BE
ON THE CORRECT TREND AND HAVE ADJUSTED LONG TERM FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

CJC

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY OUTSIDE
OF A FEW CU. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS
DURING THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BY 01Z.

JMP3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 211109
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
609 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN RAIN FREE WEATHER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHILE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. HEAT
CONCERNS FOR TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHALLENGES IN THIS
MORNING/S FORECAST.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVERALL IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP A MAJORITY IF NOT ALL OF THE MID SOUTH RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS YESTERDAY MORNING MIXED
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WOULD EXPECT THE SAME TO OCCUR
TODAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER THIS MORNING THAN
YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY AND THINK HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW
105 DEGREES. /HEAT INDEX READINGS 105 OR GREATER FOR ADVISORIES/ AS A
RESULT...I/VE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEAT HEADLINES
FOR TODAY AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS ANY POTENTIAL IF
CONDITIONS WOULD WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. A CONTINUATION OF VERY
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S WILL SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY WORK ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED BY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING REACHED EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS INDICATES A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ECMWF KEEPS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THE ECMWF MAY BE
ON THE CORRECT TREND AND HAVE ADJUSTED LONG TERM FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

CJC

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY OUTSIDE
OF A FEW CU. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS
DURING THE DAY BEFORE SUBSIDING BY 01Z.

JMP3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 210823
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
323 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN RAIN FREE WEATHER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHILE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. HEAT
CONCERNS FOR TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHALLENGES IN THIS
MORNING/S FORECAST.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVERALL IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP A MAJORITY IF NOT ALL OF THE MID SOUTH RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS YESTERDAY MORNING MIXED
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WOULD EXPECT THE SAME TO OCCUR
TODAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER THIS MORNING THAN
YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY AND THINK HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW
105 DEGREES. /HEAT INDEX READINGS 105 OR GREATER FOR ADVISORIES/ AS A
RESULT...I/VE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEAT HEADLINES
FOR TODAY AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS ANY POTENTIAL IF
CONDITIONS WOULD WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. A CONTINUATION OF VERY
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S WILL SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY WORK ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED BY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING REACHED EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS INDICATES A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ECMWF KEEPS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THE ECMWF MAY BE
ON THE CORRECT TREND AND HAVE ADJUSTED LONG TERM FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY INCREASING BACK TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.

ARS


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMEG 210823
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
323 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN RAIN FREE WEATHER
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. AS OF 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOWER 70S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHILE TEMPERATURES ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S. HEAT
CONCERNS FOR TODAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND CONVECTIVE
CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE THE CHALLENGES IN THIS
MORNING/S FORECAST.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVERALL IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY AS A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
KEEP A MAJORITY IF NOT ALL OF THE MID SOUTH RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS YESTERDAY MORNING MIXED
OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND WOULD EXPECT THE SAME TO OCCUR
TODAY. HOWEVER...SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE SOMEWHAT LOWER THIS MORNING THAN
YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT LEAST A DEGREE OR
TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH READINGS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
90S. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER IN REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
TODAY AND THINK HEAT INDEX READINGS WILL REMAIN BELOW
105 DEGREES. /HEAT INDEX READINGS 105 OR GREATER FOR ADVISORIES/ AS A
RESULT...I/VE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ANY HEAT HEADLINES
FOR TODAY AND WILL LET DAY SHIFT ASSESS ANY POTENTIAL IF
CONDITIONS WOULD WARRANT ANY HEADLINES. A CONTINUATION OF VERY
HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S WILL SPREAD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

LATEST 00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY WORK ITS WAY IN ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK. THIS MAY
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERED BY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
BEING REACHED EACH DAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOME
DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO EMERGE IN THE LONG TERM SOLUTIONS BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE GFS INDICATES A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
BY THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE ECMWF KEEPS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THIS TIME...BELIEVE THE ECMWF MAY BE
ON THE CORRECT TREND AND HAVE ADJUSTED LONG TERM FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY INCREASING BACK TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.

ARS


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 210235
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THE TN RIVER OTRW SKIES ARE CLEAR.
CONDITIONS ARE WARM AND MUGGY AS WELL WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AND WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. NO UPDATE
NEEDED.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE THE HEAT. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT BUT A STRONG RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY.

AFTER A FAIRLY COOL FIRST 2/3 OF THE SUMMER THE HEAT IS NOW ON.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ABOVE WHERE WE WERE
24 HOURS AGO WITH ANOTHER 2 DEGREES OR SO OF WARMING EXPECTED.
FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE
JUST SPLITTING HAIRS. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT...FROM MORNING
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...DOWN TO THE LOW 70S. RESULTING
HEAT INDICES HAVE BEEN A BIT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105
DEGREES...BUT UNLESS DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL AT LEAST APPROACH THE 105 DEGREE MARK.

EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW...AND REALLY EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN AND OR MOVE THESE STRONG RIDGES
EAST FASTER THAN WHAT USUALLY OCCURS...SO WILL RELY HEAVILY ON
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE SATURDAY AND OR SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH THE
WARMEST AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 99 DEGREES. RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY DEW POINTS AND THE AMOUNT OF
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WE SEE EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...BUT WILL BE ISSUED ON A DAY BY DAY BASIS.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY INCREASING BACK TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 210235
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
935 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER RIDGE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. A COUPLE OF
SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED NEAR THE TN RIVER OTRW SKIES ARE CLEAR.
CONDITIONS ARE WARM AND MUGGY AS WELL WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AND WARM WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. NO UPDATE
NEEDED.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE THE HEAT. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT BUT A STRONG RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY.

AFTER A FAIRLY COOL FIRST 2/3 OF THE SUMMER THE HEAT IS NOW ON.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ABOVE WHERE WE WERE
24 HOURS AGO WITH ANOTHER 2 DEGREES OR SO OF WARMING EXPECTED.
FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE
JUST SPLITTING HAIRS. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT...FROM MORNING
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...DOWN TO THE LOW 70S. RESULTING
HEAT INDICES HAVE BEEN A BIT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105
DEGREES...BUT UNLESS DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL AT LEAST APPROACH THE 105 DEGREE MARK.

EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW...AND REALLY EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN AND OR MOVE THESE STRONG RIDGES
EAST FASTER THAN WHAT USUALLY OCCURS...SO WILL RELY HEAVILY ON
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE SATURDAY AND OR SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH THE
WARMEST AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 99 DEGREES. RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY DEW POINTS AND THE AMOUNT OF
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WE SEE EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...BUT WILL BE ISSUED ON A DAY BY DAY BASIS.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY INCREASING BACK TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 202329
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE THE HEAT. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT BUT A STRONG RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY.

AFTER A FAIRLY COOL FIRST 2/3 OF THE SUMMER THE HEAT IS NOW ON.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ABOVE WHERE WE WERE
24 HOURS AGO WITH ANOTHER 2 DEGREES OR SO OF WARMING EXPECTED.
FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE
JUST SPLITTING HAIRS. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT...FROM MORNING
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...DOWN TO THE LOW 70S. RESULTING
HEAT INDICES HAVE BEEN A BIT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105
DEGREES...BUT UNLESS DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL AT LEAST APPROACH THE 105 DEGREE MARK.

EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW...AND REALLY EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN AND OR MOVE THESE STRONG RIDGES
EAST FASTER THAN WHAT USUALLY OCCURS...SO WILL RELY HEAVILY ON
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE SATURDAY AND OR SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH THE
WARMEST AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 99 DEGREES. RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY DEW POINTS AND THE AMOUNT OF
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WE SEE EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...BUT WILL BE ISSUED ON A DAY BY DAY BASIS.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY INCREASING BACK TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 202329
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE THE HEAT. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT BUT A STRONG RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY.

AFTER A FAIRLY COOL FIRST 2/3 OF THE SUMMER THE HEAT IS NOW ON.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ABOVE WHERE WE WERE
24 HOURS AGO WITH ANOTHER 2 DEGREES OR SO OF WARMING EXPECTED.
FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE
JUST SPLITTING HAIRS. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT...FROM MORNING
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...DOWN TO THE LOW 70S. RESULTING
HEAT INDICES HAVE BEEN A BIT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105
DEGREES...BUT UNLESS DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL AT LEAST APPROACH THE 105 DEGREE MARK.

EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW...AND REALLY EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN AND OR MOVE THESE STRONG RIDGES
EAST FASTER THAN WHAT USUALLY OCCURS...SO WILL RELY HEAVILY ON
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE SATURDAY AND OR SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH THE
WARMEST AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 99 DEGREES. RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY DEW POINTS AND THE AMOUNT OF
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WE SEE EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...BUT WILL BE ISSUED ON A DAY BY DAY BASIS.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY
THIS EVENING THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY INCREASING BACK TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 201943
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
243 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE THE HEAT. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT BUT A STRONG RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY.

AFTER A FAIRLY COOL FIRST 2/3 OF THE SUMMER THE HEAT IS NOW ON.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ABOVE WHERE WE WERE
24 HOURS AGO WITH ANOTHER 2 DEGREES OR SO OF WARMING EXPECTED.
FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE
JUST SPLITTING HAIRS. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT...FROM MORNING
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...DOWN TO THE LOW 70S. RESULTING
HEAT INDICES HAVE BEEN A BIT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105
DEGREES...BUT UNLESS DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL AT LEAST APPROACH THE 105 DEGREE MARK.

EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW...AND REALLY EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN AND OR MOVE THESE STRONG RIDGES
EAST FASTER THAN WHAT USUALLY OCCURS...SO WILL RELY HEAVILY ON
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE SATURDAY AND OR SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH THE
WARMEST AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 99 DEGREES. RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY DEW POINTS AND THE AMOUNT OF
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WE SEE EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...BUT WILL BE ISSUED ON A DAY BY DAY BASIS.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH EXCEPTIONS FROM
08Z-14Z AT MKL DUE TO FOG FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLY AT TUP FOR THE SAME REASON.

 BELLES

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 201943
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
243 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN STORY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS WILL BE THE HEAT. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT BUT A STRONG RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY.

AFTER A FAIRLY COOL FIRST 2/3 OF THE SUMMER THE HEAT IS NOW ON.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE TWO TO FOUR DEGREES ABOVE WHERE WE WERE
24 HOURS AGO WITH ANOTHER 2 DEGREES OR SO OF WARMING EXPECTED.
FORECAST HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE TOO WARM...BUT AT THIS POINT WE ARE
JUST SPLITTING HAIRS. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT...FROM MORNING
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S...DOWN TO THE LOW 70S. RESULTING
HEAT INDICES HAVE BEEN A BIT BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 105
DEGREES...BUT UNLESS DEW POINTS CONTINUE TO DECREASE...MUCH OF THE
AREA WILL AT LEAST APPROACH THE 105 DEGREE MARK.

EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME TOMORROW...AND REALLY EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS TEND TO BREAK DOWN AND OR MOVE THESE STRONG RIDGES
EAST FASTER THAN WHAT USUALLY OCCURS...SO WILL RELY HEAVILY ON
PERSISTENCE IN THE FORECAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
EACH DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. FOR NOW IT LOOKS
LIKE SATURDAY AND OR SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH THE
WARMEST AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 99 DEGREES. RESULTING HEAT INDICES
WILL BE LARGELY DETERMINED BY DEW POINTS AND THE AMOUNT OF
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WE SEE EACH DAY. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED...BUT WILL BE ISSUED ON A DAY BY DAY BASIS.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH EXCEPTIONS FROM
08Z-14Z AT MKL DUE TO FOG FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLY AT TUP FOR THE SAME REASON.

 BELLES

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 201740
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1240 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 4-6 DEGREES ABOVE WHERE THEY
WERE YESTERDAY. YESTERDAYS HIGHS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
90S...PURE EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PUT TODAYS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S...GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OUR CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S. THE 100 DOLLAR
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WE WILL SEE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE DROP OFF VERY
QUICKLY...INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ONLY A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
THE SURFACE. ONLY 2-4 DEGREE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE A
BIG DIFFERENCE IN OUR AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BENCH MARK SETTING THE
GROUNDWORK FOR THE BASIS FOR A NEED FOR ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING AT
THIS POINT. AS OF 4 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM IN
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
MANY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 26-27C...TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY MIXING OUT TO THE LOWER 70S
SUGGESTS HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN 105 TO 108
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. CONSEQUENTLY...I HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
BETWEEN 11 AM CDT AND 7 PM CDT FOR MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH.

THESE VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO APPROACHING 100 DEGREES AND VERY HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS AT OR ABOVE 105
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND EXTEND
THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK AS LATEST
00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH EXCEPTIONS FROM
08Z-14Z AT MKL DUE TO FOG FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLY AT TUP FOR THE SAME REASON.

 BELLES

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 201740
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1240 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1045 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 4-6 DEGREES ABOVE WHERE THEY
WERE YESTERDAY. YESTERDAYS HIGHS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
90S...PURE EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PUT TODAYS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S...GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OUR CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S. THE 100 DOLLAR
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WE WILL SEE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE DROP OFF VERY
QUICKLY...INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ONLY A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
THE SURFACE. ONLY 2-4 DEGREE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE A
BIG DIFFERENCE IN OUR AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BENCH MARK SETTING THE
GROUNDWORK FOR THE BASIS FOR A NEED FOR ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING AT
THIS POINT. AS OF 4 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM IN
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
MANY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 26-27C...TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY MIXING OUT TO THE LOWER 70S
SUGGESTS HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN 105 TO 108
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. CONSEQUENTLY...I HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
BETWEEN 11 AM CDT AND 7 PM CDT FOR MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH.

THESE VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO APPROACHING 100 DEGREES AND VERY HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS AT OR ABOVE 105
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND EXTEND
THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK AS LATEST
00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH EXCEPTIONS FROM
08Z-14Z AT MKL DUE TO FOG FORMATION UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS AND POSSIBLY AT TUP FOR THE SAME REASON.

 BELLES

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 201545
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1045 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 4-6 DEGREES ABOVE WHERE THEY
WERE YESTERDAY. YESTERDAYS HIGHS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
90S...PURE EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PUT TODAYS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S...GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OUR CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S. THE 100 DOLLAR
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WE WILL SEE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE DROP OFF VERY
QUICKLY...INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ONLY A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
THE SURFACE. ONLY 2-4 DEGREE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE A
BIG DIFFERENCE IN OUR AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BENCH MARK SETTING THE
GROUNDWORK FOR THE BASIS FOR A NEED FOR ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING AT
THIS POINT. AS OF 4 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM IN
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
MANY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 26-27C...TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY MIXING OUT TO THE LOWER 70S
SUGGESTS HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN 105 TO 108
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. CONSEQUENTLY...I HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
BETWEEN 11 AM CDT AND 7 PM CDT FOR MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH.

THESE VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO APPROACHING 100 DEGREES AND VERY HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS AT OR ABOVE 105
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND EXTEND
THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK AS LATEST
00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL CAUSE SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE FROM THE SW BETWEEN
7-12 KTS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 201545
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1045 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING GENERALLY 4-6 DEGREES ABOVE WHERE THEY
WERE YESTERDAY. YESTERDAYS HIGHS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOW
90S...PURE EXTRAPOLATION WOULD PUT TODAYS HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 90S...GENERALLY WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OUR CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS. DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE 70S. THE 100 DOLLAR
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WE WILL SEE THIS
AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE DROP OFF VERY
QUICKLY...INTO THE MIDDLE 60S ONLY A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET ABOVE
THE SURFACE. ONLY 2-4 DEGREE LOWER RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL MAKE A
BIG DIFFERENCE IN OUR AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES. A HEAT ADVISORY
IS IN EFFECT FOR HEAT INDICES AT OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES FOR MOST OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE BENCH MARK SETTING THE
GROUNDWORK FOR THE BASIS FOR A NEED FOR ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING AT
THIS POINT. AS OF 4 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM IN
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR
TODAY AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
MANY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 26-27C...TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY MIXING OUT TO THE LOWER 70S
SUGGESTS HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN 105 TO 108
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. CONSEQUENTLY...I HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
BETWEEN 11 AM CDT AND 7 PM CDT FOR MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH.

THESE VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO APPROACHING 100 DEGREES AND VERY HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS AT OR ABOVE 105
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND EXTEND
THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK AS LATEST
00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL CAUSE SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE FROM THE SW BETWEEN
7-12 KTS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-
     CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-
     MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-
     UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CROCKETT-DYER-
     FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-
     WEAKLEY.

&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 201244
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
744 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 1Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING AT
THIS POINT. AS OF 4 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM IN
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR TODAY
AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
MANY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 26-27C...TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY MIXING OUT TO THE LOWER 70S
SUGGESTS HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN 105 TO 108
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. CONSEQUENTLY...I HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
BETWEEN 11 AM CDT AND 7 PM CDT FOR MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH.

THESE VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO APPROACHING 100 DEGREES AND VERY HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS AT OR ABOVE 105
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND EXTEND
THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK AS LATEST
00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS NEXT WEEK.

CJC

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL CAUSE SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE FROM THE SW BETWEEN
7-12 KTS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 201244
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
744 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 1Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING AT
THIS POINT. AS OF 4 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM IN
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR TODAY
AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
MANY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 26-27C...TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY MIXING OUT TO THE LOWER 70S
SUGGESTS HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN 105 TO 108
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. CONSEQUENTLY...I HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
BETWEEN 11 AM CDT AND 7 PM CDT FOR MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH.

THESE VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO APPROACHING 100 DEGREES AND VERY HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS AT OR ABOVE 105
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND EXTEND
THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK AS LATEST
00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS NEXT WEEK.

CJC

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL CAUSE SKIES TO REMAIN CLEAR
THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SCATTERED CU
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE FROM THE SW BETWEEN
7-12 KTS TODAY BEFORE SUBSIDING TONIGHT.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 200859
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
359 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING AT
THIS POINT. AS OF 4 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM IN
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR TODAY
AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
MANY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 26-27C...TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY MIXING OUT TO THE LOWER 70S
SUGGESTS HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN 105 TO 108
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. CONSEQUENTLY...I HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
BETWEEN 11 AM CDT AND 7 PM CDT FOR MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH.

THESE VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO APPROACHING 100 DEGREES AND VERY HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS AT OR ABOVE 105
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND EXTEND
THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK AS LATEST
00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS NEXT WEEK.

CJC


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS. EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIGHT
FOG ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SSW WINDS
OVERNIGHT...SW 8-10 KTS WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 200859
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
359 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS ALONG WITH 00Z UPPER
AIR ANALYSIS INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ARKANSAS THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING AT
THIS POINT. AS OF 4 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE WARM IN
THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES
NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. VERY HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS FOR TODAY
AND PERSISTING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT
CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD EAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING REMAIN QUITE HIGH IN THE MIDDLE 70S ACROSS
MANY LOCATIONS EARLY THIS MORNING. 925 MB TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 26-27C...TRANSLATING TO AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S. VERY HOT TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH THE
ANTICIPATION OF SURFACE DEWPOINTS ONLY MIXING OUT TO THE LOWER 70S
SUGGESTS HEAT INDEX READINGS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN 105 TO 108
DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. CONSEQUENTLY...I HAVE ISSUED A HEAT ADVISORY
BETWEEN 11 AM CDT AND 7 PM CDT FOR MUCH OF THE MID SOUTH.

THESE VERY HOT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THURSDAY AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO APPROACHING 100 DEGREES AND VERY HIGH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAY RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS AT OR ABOVE 105
DEGREES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND EXTEND
THE DURATION AND COVERAGE OF THE HEAT ADVISORY IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY COOL SLIGHTLY NEXT WEEK AS LATEST
00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DUE TO TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS MAY ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS NEXT WEEK.

CJC


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS. EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIGHT
FOG ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SSW WINDS
OVERNIGHT...SW 8-10 KTS WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR CROCKETT-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 200412
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1112 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE UPSTREAM OF THE MIDSOUTH HAVE
DIED OUT THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE END OF THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THUS WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A TROF
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
PUSH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AS AN UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE AND DOMINATE OUR REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS FOR THE SUMMER. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH 105 FOR SEVERAL DAYS...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED....THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HEAT IN THE
HWO.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS. EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIGHT
FOG ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SSW WINDS
OVERNIGHT...SW 8-10 KTS WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 200412
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1112 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE UPSTREAM OF THE MIDSOUTH HAVE
DIED OUT THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE END OF THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THUS WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A TROF
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
PUSH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AS AN UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE AND DOMINATE OUR REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS FOR THE SUMMER. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH 105 FOR SEVERAL DAYS...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED....THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HEAT IN THE
HWO.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS. EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIGHT
FOG ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SSW WINDS
OVERNIGHT...SW 8-10 KTS WEDNESDAY...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 200136
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
836 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE UPSTREAM OF THE MIDSOUTH HAVE
DIED OUT THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE END OF THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THUS WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A TROF
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
PUSH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AS AN UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE AND DOMINATE OUR REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS FOR THE SUMMER. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH 105 FOR SEVERAL DAYS...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED....THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HEAT IN THE
HWO.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

ISOLD TSRAS MAY MOVE INTO NW TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SO
INTRODUCED A VCTS AT KMKL FROM 20/02Z-20/04Z. OTRW EXPECT A QUIET
NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS. EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SSW WINDS
OVERNIGHT...SW 8-10 KTS WEDNESDAY.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 200136
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
836 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE UPSTREAM OF THE MIDSOUTH HAVE
DIED OUT THIS EVENING. EXPECT THAT TO BE THE END OF THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION THUS WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS. REST OF FORECAST
LOOKS GOOD. UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA
BRINGING HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE MIDSOUTH THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A TROF
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
PUSH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AS AN UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE AND DOMINATE OUR REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS FOR THE SUMMER. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH 105 FOR SEVERAL DAYS...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED....THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HEAT IN THE
HWO.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

ISOLD TSRAS MAY MOVE INTO NW TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SO
INTRODUCED A VCTS AT KMKL FROM 20/02Z-20/04Z. OTRW EXPECT A QUIET
NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS. EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SSW WINDS
OVERNIGHT...SW 8-10 KTS WEDNESDAY.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 192355
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
655 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A TROF
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
PUSH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AS AN UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE AND DOMINATE OUR REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS FOR THE SUMMER. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH 105 FOR SEVERAL DAYS...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED....THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HEAT IN THE
HWO.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

ISOLD TSRAS MAY MOVE INTO NW TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SO
INTRODUCED A VCTS AT KMKL FROM 20/02Z-20/04Z. OTRW EXPECT A QUIET
NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS. EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SSW WINDS
OVERNIGHT...SW 8-10 KTS WEDNESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 192355
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
655 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 233 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A TROF
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
PUSH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AS AN UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE AND DOMINATE OUR REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS FOR THE SUMMER. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH 105 FOR SEVERAL DAYS...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED....THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HEAT IN THE
HWO.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

ISOLD TSRAS MAY MOVE INTO NW TN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS SO
INTRODUCED A VCTS AT KMKL FROM 20/02Z-20/04Z. OTRW EXPECT A QUIET
NIGHT WITH VFR CONDS. EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME LIGHT FOG ACROSS
EASTERN SECTIONS LATE. VFR WEDNESDAY. LIGHT SSW WINDS
OVERNIGHT...SW 8-10 KTS WEDNESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 191933
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
233 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A TROF
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
PUSH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AS AN UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE AND DOMINATE OUR REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS FOR THE SUMMER. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH 105 FOR SEVERAL DAYS...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED....THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HEAT IN THE
HWO.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE KICKED OFF AN AREA OF TS OVER AR
THIS MORNING. THE AREA HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. FOR THAT REASON LEFT ONLY A VCSH IN FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS AT MEM. SLIGHT CHC OF AREA REDEVELOPING OVER N MS AREA BUT
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME SO LEFT IT OUT AT TUP. STRONGER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT ASSOCIATED TS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF TAF SITES BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER
AMENDMENTS. CHC FOR A LITTLE FOG FORMATION AFT 10Z FOR MKL/TUP
TONIGHT BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT...HOWEVER TRENDS
SHOULD BE FOR LESS BR/STRATUS SO ONLY DECREASE VIS TO 5-6SM AT
BOTH LOCATIONS. AFT 14Z LIGHT WSW WINDS AND VFR EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THRU WED AT ALL LOCATIONS.

NGU

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 191933
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
233 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GENERALLY TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH A TROF
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY MAY
PUSH INTO NORTHERN AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
BEGINS TO PUSH EAST AS AN UPPER HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OUR
REGION. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THOUGHT TUESDAY)...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL INCREASE AND DOMINATE OUR REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK ON INTO THE WEEKEND.  THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PUSH
TEMPERATURES TO THEIR HIGHEST LEVELS FOR THE SUMMER. HEAT INDEX
VALUES WILL FLIRT WITH 105 FOR SEVERAL DAYS...HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED....THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE HEAT IN THE
HWO.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE KICKED OFF AN AREA OF TS OVER AR
THIS MORNING. THE AREA HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. FOR THAT REASON LEFT ONLY A VCSH IN FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS AT MEM. SLIGHT CHC OF AREA REDEVELOPING OVER N MS AREA BUT
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME SO LEFT IT OUT AT TUP. STRONGER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT ASSOCIATED TS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF TAF SITES BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER
AMENDMENTS. CHC FOR A LITTLE FOG FORMATION AFT 10Z FOR MKL/TUP
TONIGHT BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT...HOWEVER TRENDS
SHOULD BE FOR LESS BR/STRATUS SO ONLY DECREASE VIS TO 5-6SM AT
BOTH LOCATIONS. AFT 14Z LIGHT WSW WINDS AND VFR EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THRU WED AT ALL LOCATIONS.

NGU

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 191743
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE MORNING PERIOD FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DEVELOPMENT SEEN ON RADAR. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

 JEB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS OF 4 AM CDT...NEAREST
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DURING THE DAY WILL
BE SUBTLE AND/OR MINIMAL AT BEST WITH THE MOST LIKELY TRIGGERING
MECHANISM RESULTING FROM CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES ISOLATED IN COVERAGE FOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A LOCATION OR TWO
APPROACHING THE MIDDLE 90S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE
3000 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -8 TO -10...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20 KTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2
INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MAINLY UNORGANIZED ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

00Z WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-40
AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...00Z LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN FREE WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. THESE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S MAY PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX READINGS AT OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CONSEQUENTLY...A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH
AND CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE KICKED OFF AN AREA OF TS OVER AR
THIS MORNING. THE AREA HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. FOR THAT REASON LEFT ONLY A VCSH IN FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS AT MEM. SLIGHT CHC OF AREA REDEVELOPING OVER N MS AREA BUT
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME SO LEFT IT OUT AT TUP. STRONGER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT ASSOCIATED TS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF TAF SITES BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER
AMENDMENTS. CHC FOR A LITTLE FOG FORMATION AFT 10Z FOR MKL/TUP
TONIGHT BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT...HOWEVER TRENDS
SHOULD BE FOR LESS BR/STRATUS SO ONLY DECREASE VIS TO 5-6SM AT
BOTH LOCATIONS. AFT 14Z LIGHT WSW WINDS AND VFR EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THRU WED AT ALL LOCATIONS.

NGU

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 191743
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE FOR 18Z TAFS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE MORNING PERIOD FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DEVELOPMENT SEEN ON RADAR. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

 JEB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS OF 4 AM CDT...NEAREST
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DURING THE DAY WILL
BE SUBTLE AND/OR MINIMAL AT BEST WITH THE MOST LIKELY TRIGGERING
MECHANISM RESULTING FROM CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES ISOLATED IN COVERAGE FOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A LOCATION OR TWO
APPROACHING THE MIDDLE 90S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE
3000 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -8 TO -10...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20 KTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2
INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MAINLY UNORGANIZED ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

00Z WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-40
AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...00Z LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN FREE WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. THESE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S MAY PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX READINGS AT OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CONSEQUENTLY...A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH
AND CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE KICKED OFF AN AREA OF TS OVER AR
THIS MORNING. THE AREA HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. FOR THAT REASON LEFT ONLY A VCSH IN FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF
HOURS AT MEM. SLIGHT CHC OF AREA REDEVELOPING OVER N MS AREA BUT
CHANCES ARE MINIMAL AT THIS TIME SO LEFT IT OUT AT TUP. STRONGER
SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS...EXPECT ASSOCIATED TS WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTH OF TAF SITES BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR LATER
AMENDMENTS. CHC FOR A LITTLE FOG FORMATION AFT 10Z FOR MKL/TUP
TONIGHT BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM LAST NIGHT...HOWEVER TRENDS
SHOULD BE FOR LESS BR/STRATUS SO ONLY DECREASE VIS TO 5-6SM AT
BOTH LOCATIONS. AFT 14Z LIGHT WSW WINDS AND VFR EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THRU WED AT ALL LOCATIONS.

NGU

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 191418
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE MORNING PERIOD FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DEVELOPMENT SEEN ON RADAR. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

 JEB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS OF 4 AM CDT...NEAREST
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DURING THE DAY WILL
BE SUBTLE AND/OR MINIMAL AT BEST WITH THE MOST LIKELY TRIGGERING
MECHANISM RESULTING FROM CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES ISOLATED IN COVERAGE FOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A LOCATION OR TWO
APPROACHING THE MIDDLE 90S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE
3000 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -8 TO -10...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20 KTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2
INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MAINLY UNORGANIZED ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

00Z WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-40
AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...00Z LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN FREE WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. THESE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S MAY PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX READINGS AT OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CONSEQUENTLY...A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH
AND CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
AFFECTING KMKL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AFFECTING KTUP. FOG WILL
LIFT AND CIGS WILL RISE BY 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF ISOLATED
STORMS AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD VCTS. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 191418
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE THE MORNING PERIOD FOR SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH DEVELOPMENT SEEN ON RADAR. OTHERWISE
NO CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

 JEB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS OF 4 AM CDT...NEAREST
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DURING THE DAY WILL
BE SUBTLE AND/OR MINIMAL AT BEST WITH THE MOST LIKELY TRIGGERING
MECHANISM RESULTING FROM CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES ISOLATED IN COVERAGE FOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A LOCATION OR TWO
APPROACHING THE MIDDLE 90S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE
3000 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -8 TO -10...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20 KTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2
INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MAINLY UNORGANIZED ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

00Z WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-40
AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...00Z LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN FREE WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. THESE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S MAY PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX READINGS AT OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CONSEQUENTLY...A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH
AND CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
AFFECTING KMKL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AFFECTING KTUP. FOG WILL
LIFT AND CIGS WILL RISE BY 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF ISOLATED
STORMS AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD VCTS. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 191141
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
641 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS OF 4 AM CDT...NEAREST
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DURING THE DAY WILL
BE SUBTLE AND/OR MINIMAL AT BEST WITH THE MOST LIKELY TRIGGERING
MECHANISM RESULTING FROM CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES ISOLATED IN COVERAGE FOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A LOCATION OR TWO
APPROACHING THE MIDDLE 90S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE
3000 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -8 TO -10...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20 KTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2
INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MAINLY UNORGANIZED ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

00Z WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-40
AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...00Z LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN FREE WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. THESE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S MAY PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX READINGS AT OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CONSEQUENTLY...A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH
AND CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CJC

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
AFFECTING KMKL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AFFECTING KTUP. FOG WILL
LIFT AND CIGS WILL RISE BY 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF ISOLATED
STORMS AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD VCTS. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 191141
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
641 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS OF 4 AM CDT...NEAREST
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DURING THE DAY WILL
BE SUBTLE AND/OR MINIMAL AT BEST WITH THE MOST LIKELY TRIGGERING
MECHANISM RESULTING FROM CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES ISOLATED IN COVERAGE FOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A LOCATION OR TWO
APPROACHING THE MIDDLE 90S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE
3000 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -8 TO -10...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20 KTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2
INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MAINLY UNORGANIZED ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

00Z WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-40
AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...00Z LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN FREE WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. THESE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S MAY PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX READINGS AT OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CONSEQUENTLY...A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH
AND CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CJC

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
AFFECTING KMKL AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AFFECTING KTUP. FOG WILL
LIFT AND CIGS WILL RISE BY 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF ISOLATED
STORMS AS A UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ADD VCTS. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 190931
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
431 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS OF 4 AM CDT...NEAREST
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DURING THE DAY WILL
BE SUBTLE AND/OR MINIMAL AT BEST WITH THE MOST LIKELY TRIGGERING
MECHANISM RESULTING FROM CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES ISOLATED IN COVERAGE FOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A LOCATION OR TWO
APPROACHING THE MIDDLE 90S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE
3000 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -8 TO -10...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20 KTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2
INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MAINLY UNORGANIZED ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

00Z WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-40
AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...00Z LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN FREE WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. THESE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S MAY PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX READINGS AT OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CONSEQUENTLY...A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH
AND CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMKL AND KTUP TUESDAY MORNING
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A BKN DECK ATTM. UPPER RIDGE WILL
START BUILDING IN ON TUESDAY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSRAS
WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION VCTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND
WSW 7-10 KTS ON TUESDAY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 190931
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
431 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST/SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND KENTUCKY.
00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATED DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
OVERNIGHT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AS OF 4 AM CDT...NEAREST
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
CENTRAL ALABAMA. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT AND A
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CONCERNS IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY WITH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOCATED ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY. AT THIS
TIME IT APPEARS THAT ANY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DURING THE DAY WILL
BE SUBTLE AND/OR MINIMAL AT BEST WITH THE MOST LIKELY TRIGGERING
MECHANISM RESULTING FROM CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED.
CONSEQUENTLY...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES ISOLATED IN COVERAGE FOR
TODAY. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 90S WITH A LOCATION OR TWO
APPROACHING THE MIDDLE 90S. SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AT OR ABOVE
3000 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -8 TO -10...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
AROUND 20 KTS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1.75 TO 2
INCHES SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MAINLY UNORGANIZED ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

00Z WRF/GFS/ECMWF MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED
WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH/TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY NORTH OF I-40
AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL
BACK INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...00Z LONG TERM MODELS
INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY RAIN FREE WEATHER WITH AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. THESE VERY HOT TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S MAY PRODUCE HEAT
INDEX READINGS AT OR EXCEEDING 105 DEGREES. CONSEQUENTLY...A HEAT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH
AND CONTINUING INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMKL AND KTUP TUESDAY MORNING
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A BKN DECK ATTM. UPPER RIDGE WILL
START BUILDING IN ON TUESDAY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSRAS
WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION VCTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND
WSW 7-10 KTS ON TUESDAY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 190431
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SKIRTING PHILLIPS
COUNTY ARKANSAS AND COAHOMA COUNTY MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THAT THE AREA FROM COAHOMA COUNTY TO MONROE
COUNTY MISSISSIPPI COULD CONTINUE SEE THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. WILL
ADJUST POPS OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WE HAD SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN FALLING IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH
HELPED PRODUCE ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IT BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BECOME
QUITE WARM ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

BY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. IN ADDITIONAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AS HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 AT TIMES DURING THIS
PERIOD SO THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY LATER THIS WEEK.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMKL AND KTUP TUESDAY MORNING
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A BKN DECK ATTM. UPPER RIDGE WILL
START BUILDING IN ON TUESDAY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSRAS
WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION VCTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND
WSW 7-10 KTS ON TUESDAY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

SJM

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 190431
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SKIRTING PHILLIPS
COUNTY ARKANSAS AND COAHOMA COUNTY MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THAT THE AREA FROM COAHOMA COUNTY TO MONROE
COUNTY MISSISSIPPI COULD CONTINUE SEE THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. WILL
ADJUST POPS OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WE HAD SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN FALLING IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH
HELPED PRODUCE ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IT BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BECOME
QUITE WARM ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

BY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. IN ADDITIONAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AS HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 AT TIMES DURING THIS
PERIOD SO THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY LATER THIS WEEK.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDS ACROSS THE REGION ATTM. PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMKL AND KTUP TUESDAY MORNING
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A BKN DECK ATTM. UPPER RIDGE WILL
START BUILDING IN ON TUESDAY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSRAS
WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION VCTS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND
WSW 7-10 KTS ON TUESDAY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.

SJM

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 190221
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
921 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SKIRTING PHILLIPS
COUNTY ARKANSAS AND COAHOMA COUNTY MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THAT THE AREA FROM COAHOMA COUNTY TO MONROE
COUNTY MISSISSIPPI COULD CONTINUE SEE THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. WILL
ADJUST POPS OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WE HAD SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN FALLING IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH
HELPED PRODUCE ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IT BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BECOME
QUITE WARM ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

BY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. IN ADDITIONAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AS HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 AT TIMES DURING THIS
PERIOD SO THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY LATER THIS WEEK.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOULD BE A QUIETER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KMKL AND KTUP THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A
BKN DECK ATTM. UPPER RIDGE WILL START BUILDING IN ON TUESDAY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSRAS WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION VCTS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WSW 7-10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 190221
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
921 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SKIRTING PHILLIPS
COUNTY ARKANSAS AND COAHOMA COUNTY MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME.
LATEST HRRR SHOWS THAT THE AREA FROM COAHOMA COUNTY TO MONROE
COUNTY MISSISSIPPI COULD CONTINUE SEE THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. WILL
ADJUST POPS OTHERWISE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WE HAD SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN FALLING IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH
HELPED PRODUCE ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IT BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BECOME
QUITE WARM ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

BY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. IN ADDITIONAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AS HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 AT TIMES DURING THIS
PERIOD SO THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY LATER THIS WEEK.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOULD BE A QUIETER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KMKL AND KTUP THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A
BKN DECK ATTM. UPPER RIDGE WILL START BUILDING IN ON TUESDAY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSRAS WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION VCTS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WSW 7-10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 182345
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WE HAD SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN FALLING IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH
HELPED PRODUCE ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IT BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BECOME
QUITE WARM ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

BY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. IN ADDITIONAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AS HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 AT TIMES DURING THIS
PERIOD SO THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY LATER THIS WEEK.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOULD BE A QUIETER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KMKL AND KTUP THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A
BKN DECK ATTM. UPPER RIDGE WILL START BUILDING IN ON TUESDAY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSRAS WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION VCTS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WSW 7-10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 182345
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WE HAD SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN FALLING IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH
HELPED PRODUCE ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IT BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BECOME
QUITE WARM ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

BY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. IN ADDITIONAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AS HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 AT TIMES DURING THIS
PERIOD SO THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY LATER THIS WEEK.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOULD BE A QUIETER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. VFR CONDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE EVENING WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE AT KMKL AND KTUP THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A
BKN DECK ATTM. UPPER RIDGE WILL START BUILDING IN ON TUESDAY AND
AREAL COVERAGE OF SHRAS/TSRAS WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION VCTS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND WSW 7-10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 181953
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WE HAD SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN FALLING IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH
HELPED PRODUCE ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IT BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BECOME
QUITE WARM ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

BY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. IN ADDITIONAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AS HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 AT TIMES DURING THIS
PERIOD SO THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY LATER THIS WEEK.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN WEST TENNESSEE
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPORARY MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS. MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY ARE EXPECTED AT TUP AND MKL
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 181953
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
253 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 70S TO MID 80S.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON WE HAD SOME HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN FALLING IN A FEW LOCATIONS. THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WHICH
HELPED PRODUCE ALL THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WAS MOVING ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. AS THIS DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO
MOVE EAST INTO NORTH ALABAMA...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE TONIGHT.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. AS IT BEGIN TO MOVE NORTH TONIGHT...SOME ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL START TO BECOME
QUITE WARM ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.

BY WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. THIS WILL BRING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER TO THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO RAIN EXPECTED
FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY. IN ADDITIONAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AS HOT IF NOT HOTTER THAN WE HAVE SEEN THIS SUMMER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY EXCEED 105 AT TIMES DURING THIS
PERIOD SO THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A HEAT ADVISORY LATER THIS WEEK.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN WEST TENNESSEE
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPORARY MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS. MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY ARE EXPECTED AT TUP AND MKL
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 181837
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
137 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE ACTIVITY
OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN DECREASING
IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION OF ABOUT 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONSIDERING THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...THIS SETUP
SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING CONVECTION...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND ENHANCED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
THE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST FROM THE ARKLATEX ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD COMBINE
WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE
TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS THE AIRMASS
REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. PLAN TO
MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HWO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ON TUESDAY DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS AND
SURFACE HEATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY WHICH
SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LEAD TO HOTTER AND HUMID
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. IN FACT...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOPPING 105 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. RELIEF FROM
THE LATE SUMMER HEAT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN WEST TENNESSEE
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPORARY MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS. MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY ARE EXPECTED AT TUP AND MKL
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 181837
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
137 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE ACTIVITY
OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN DECREASING
IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION OF ABOUT 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONSIDERING THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...THIS SETUP
SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING CONVECTION...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND ENHANCED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
THE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST FROM THE ARKLATEX ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD COMBINE
WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE
TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS THE AIRMASS
REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. PLAN TO
MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HWO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ON TUESDAY DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS AND
SURFACE HEATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY WHICH
SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LEAD TO HOTTER AND HUMID
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. IN FACT...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOPPING 105 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. RELIEF FROM
THE LATE SUMMER HEAT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY IN WEST TENNESSEE
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. TEMPORARY MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEAVIEST STORMS. MVFR CIGS WILL
PREVAIL. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY ARE EXPECTED AT TUP AND MKL
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GENERALLY 5-10 KTS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 181514
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1014 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE ACTIVITY
OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN DECREASING
IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION OF ABOUT 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONSIDERING THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...THIS SETUP
SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING CONVECTION...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND ENHANCED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
THE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST FROM THE ARKLATEX ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD COMBINE
WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE
TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS THE AIRMASS
REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. PLAN TO
MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HWO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ON TUESDAY DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS AND
SURFACE HEATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY WHICH
SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LEAD TO HOTTER AND HUMID
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. IN FACT...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOPPING 105 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. RELIEF FROM
THE LATE SUMMER HEAT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. BETTER TSRA COVERAGE WILL EXIST FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING MAY
CAUSE FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMEM BUT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY
WHEN THE SUN RISES. FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KMKL BY 14Z. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION TONIGHT CAUSING INCREASED MOISTURE FOR KMKL...SO ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG MAY FORM. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
TAF CYCLE MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 181514
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1014 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. A
LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MOVING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE ACTIVITY
OVER SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAS BEEN DECREASING
IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY REMAINS STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW LEVEL
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE REGION OF ABOUT 30 KTS WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING. CONSIDERING THE ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW INTO
THE WEST SIDE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS...THIS SETUP
SHOULD YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR BACKBUILDING CONVECTION...ALONG
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND ENHANCED LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.
THE GREATER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR
LATER TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MID SOUTH AS A MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST FROM THE ARKLATEX ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD COMBINE
WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE CHARACTERIZED BY MIXED
LAYER CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE
TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST ARKANSAS
AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AS THE AIRMASS
REMAINS VERY MOIST WITH PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES. PLAN TO
MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HWO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.

ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE ON TUESDAY DUE TO MOIST LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS AND
SURFACE HEATING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH. CONSIDERING
THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED...A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. ANY STORMS SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH WEDNESDAY WHICH
SHOULD SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND LEAD TO HOTTER AND HUMID
WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DRY
WEATHER ALONG WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. IN FACT...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY MAY LEAD TO HEAT INDEX VALUES
TOPPING 105 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS. HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. RELIEF FROM
THE LATE SUMMER HEAT MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SOMETIME NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CAN BE EXPECTED. BETTER TSRA COVERAGE WILL EXIST FOR OUR
SOUTHERNMOST SITES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING MAY
CAUSE FOR SOME MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMEM BUT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY
WHEN THE SUN RISES. FOG SHOULD LIFT AT KMKL BY 14Z. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
REGION TONIGHT CAUSING INCREASED MOISTURE FOR KMKL...SO ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG MAY FORM. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
TAF CYCLE MAINLY BETWEEN 5-10 KTS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









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