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000
FXUS64 KMEG 230529
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1229 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
EVENING. FORECAST ON TRACK... BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
PATCHY LIGHT FOG WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS APPEARED MOST REACHABLE
OVERNIGHT.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 230240 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
940 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
EVENING. FORECAST ON TRACK... BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
PATCHY LIGHT FOG WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS APPEARED MOST REACHABLE
OVERNIGHT.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

.TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 222318
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

..TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 222318
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

..TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 222047
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

...TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 221725
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEAR OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARMING
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE WARMING WITH THE COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS CONTINUE.
SO NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.  TLSJR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
RAIN-FREE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS ARE IN STORE AS A RELATIVELY
COLD AIRMASS PARKS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AS 925MB VALUES WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 8-9C OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER
30S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WHERE
FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL AND MAKE A MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S.

LONG TERM...WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A GORGEOUS SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ON TAP AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF PAINTS A
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST ENERGY STAYING
MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF OUR FA AND POSSIBLY STALLING OUT. FOR NOW...GOING TO ADVERTISE
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 221725
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEAR OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARMING
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE WARMING WITH THE COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS CONTINUE.
SO NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.  TLSJR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
RAIN-FREE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS ARE IN STORE AS A RELATIVELY
COLD AIRMASS PARKS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AS 925MB VALUES WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 8-9C OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER
30S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WHERE
FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL AND MAKE A MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S.

LONG TERM...WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A GORGEOUS SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ON TAP AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF PAINTS A
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST ENERGY STAYING
MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF OUR FA AND POSSIBLY STALLING OUT. FOR NOW...GOING TO ADVERTISE
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 221458
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
958 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEAR OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARMING
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE WARMING WITH THE COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS CONTINUE.
SO NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.  TLJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
RAIN-FREE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS ARE IN STORE AS A RELATIVELY
COLD AIRMASS PARKS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AS 925MB VALUES WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 8-9C OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER
30S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WHERE
FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL AND MAKE A MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S.

LONG TERM...WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A GORGEOUS SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ON TAP AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF PAINTS A
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST ENERGY STAYING
MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF OUR FA AND POSSIBLY STALLING OUT. FOR NOW...GOING TO ADVERTISE
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

SOME MINOR VISBY REDUCTIONS ARE OCCURRING AT MKL THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT. ANY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 14Z THIS MORNING AS MIXING BEGINS AFTER SUNUP. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE VALID
PERIOD...INCLUDING MKL AFTER 14Z.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 221113
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
613 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
RAIN-FREE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS ARE IN STORE AS A RELATIVELY
COLD AIRMASS PARKS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AS 925MB VALUES WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 8-9C OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER
30S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WHERE
FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL AND MAKE A MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S.

LONG TERM...WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A GORGEOUS SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ON TAP AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF PAINTS A
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST ENERGY STAYING
MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF OUR FA AND POSSIBLY STALLING OUT. FOR NOW...GOING TO ADVERTISE
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AC3

AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

SOME MINOR VISBY REDUCTIONS ARE OCCURRING AT MKL THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT. ANY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 14Z THIS MORNING AS MIXING BEGINS AFTER SUNUP. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE VALID
PERIOD...INCLUDING MKL AFTER 14Z.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMEG 220832
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
RAIN-FREE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS ARE IN STORE AS A RELATIVELY
COLD AIRMASS PARKS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AS 925MB VALUES WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 8-9C OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER
30S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WHERE
FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL AND MAKE A MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S.

LONG TERM...WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A GORGEOUS SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ON TAP AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF PAINTS A
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST ENERGY STAYING
MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF OUR FA AND POSSIBLY STALLING OUT. FOR NOW...GOING TO ADVERTISE
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MKL/TUP BETWEEN
22/09-13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER
21/15Z THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 23/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 220450
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
AT 9 PM. DEWPOINTS WERE 8 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER OVER KY. THOUGH
WINDS WERE LIGHT...SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN AND
REDUCE THE OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL A BIT. NONETHELESS...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOWARD MORNING...WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. 925MB TEMPS
DROP FROM 14-15C TO 8-9C. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
PROBABLY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
FROST TOWARD THE TN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. NO RAIN EXPECTED AND HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND WITH SOME LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...12Z MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THEN COOLER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MKL/TUP BETWEEN
22/09-13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER
21/15Z THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 23/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 220450
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
AT 9 PM. DEWPOINTS WERE 8 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER OVER KY. THOUGH
WINDS WERE LIGHT...SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN AND
REDUCE THE OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL A BIT. NONETHELESS...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOWARD MORNING...WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. 925MB TEMPS
DROP FROM 14-15C TO 8-9C. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
PROBABLY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
FROST TOWARD THE TN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. NO RAIN EXPECTED AND HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND WITH SOME LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...12Z MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THEN COOLER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MKL/TUP BETWEEN
22/09-13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER
21/15Z THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 23/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 220205 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
905 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
AT 9 PM. DEWPOINTS WERE 8 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER OVER KY. THOUGH
WINDS WERE LIGHT...SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN AND
REDUCE THE OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL A BIT. NONETHELESS...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOWARD MORNING...WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. 925MB TEMPS
DROP FROM 14-15C TO 8-9C. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
PROBABLY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
FROST TOWARD THE TN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. NO RAIN EXPECTED AND HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND WITH SOME LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...12Z MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THEN COOLER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 21/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 220205 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
905 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
AT 9 PM. DEWPOINTS WERE 8 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER OVER KY. THOUGH
WINDS WERE LIGHT...SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN AND
REDUCE THE OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL A BIT. NONETHELESS...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOWARD MORNING...WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. 925MB TEMPS
DROP FROM 14-15C TO 8-9C. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
PROBABLY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
FROST TOWARD THE TN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. NO RAIN EXPECTED AND HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND WITH SOME LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...12Z MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THEN COOLER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 21/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 212323
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. 925MB TEMPS
DROP FROM 14-15C TO 8-9C. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
PROBABLY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
FROST TOWARD THE TN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. NO RAIN EXPECTED AND HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND WITH SOME LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...12Z MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THEN COOLER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 21/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 212323
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. 925MB TEMPS
DROP FROM 14-15C TO 8-9C. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
PROBABLY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
FROST TOWARD THE TN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. NO RAIN EXPECTED AND HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND WITH SOME LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...12Z MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THEN COOLER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 21/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 212010
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. 925MB TEMPS
DROP FROM 14-15C TO 8-9C. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
PROBABLY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
FROST TOWARD THE TN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. NO RAIN EXPECTED AND HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND WITH SOME LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...12Z MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THEN COOLER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 211733
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL UNDER CALM WINDS. LINGERING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE UNDER THE COOL DOME IS PROMOTING PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT FOG THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND
HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THIS CONDITION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT
TIME.

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS SLOW TO EVOLVE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHING ITSELF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON...MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT LIKELY OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL REACH THE
UPPER 30S. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHUNTED EAST AND WEAK SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING. AS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD...WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ADVECT OVER THE MID SOUTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER...TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
AND THEN DIMINISH TO NEAR CALM TONIGHT AND WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 211533
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL UNDER CALM WINDS. LINGERING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE UNDER THE COOL DOME IS PROMOTING PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT FOG THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND
HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THIS CONDITION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT
TIME.

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS SLOW TO EVOLVE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHING ITSELF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON...MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT LIKELY OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL REACH THE
UPPER 30S. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHUNTED EAST AND WEAK SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING. AS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD...WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ADVECT OVER THE MID SOUTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER...TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR...WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 211533
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL UNDER CALM WINDS. LINGERING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE UNDER THE COOL DOME IS PROMOTING PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT FOG THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND
HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THIS CONDITION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT
TIME.

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS SLOW TO EVOLVE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHING ITSELF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON...MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT LIKELY OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL REACH THE
UPPER 30S. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHUNTED EAST AND WEAK SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING. AS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD...WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ADVECT OVER THE MID SOUTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER...TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR...WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 211533
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL UNDER CALM WINDS. LINGERING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE UNDER THE COOL DOME IS PROMOTING PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT FOG THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND
HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THIS CONDITION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT
TIME.

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS SLOW TO EVOLVE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHING ITSELF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON...MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT LIKELY OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL REACH THE
UPPER 30S. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHUNTED EAST AND WEAK SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING. AS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD...WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ADVECT OVER THE MID SOUTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER...TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR...WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 211533
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT TODAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. UPDATE TO REMOVE FOG.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY
HAS PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE HAS
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO COOL UNDER CALM WINDS. LINGERING BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE UNDER THE COOL DOME IS PROMOTING PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT FOG THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND
HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THIS CONDITION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT
TIME.

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS SLOW TO EVOLVE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHING ITSELF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON...MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT LIKELY OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL REACH THE
UPPER 30S. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHUNTED EAST AND WEAK SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING. AS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD...WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ADVECT OVER THE MID SOUTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER...TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR...WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 211118
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO COOL UNDER CALM WINDS. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE UNDER THE COOL DOME IS PROMOTING PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT FOG THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND
HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THIS CONDITION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS SLOW TO EVOLVE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHING ITSELF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON...MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT LIKELY OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL REACH THE
UPPER 30S. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHUNTED EAST AND WEAK SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING. AS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD...WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ADVECT OVER THE MID SOUTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER...TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR...WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 211118
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO COOL UNDER CALM WINDS. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE UNDER THE COOL DOME IS PROMOTING PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT FOG THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND
HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THIS CONDITION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS SLOW TO EVOLVE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHING ITSELF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON...MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT LIKELY OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL REACH THE
UPPER 30S. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHUNTED EAST AND WEAK SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING. AS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD...WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ADVECT OVER THE MID SOUTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER...TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR...WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 211118
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO COOL UNDER CALM WINDS. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE UNDER THE COOL DOME IS PROMOTING PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT FOG THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND
HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THIS CONDITION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS SLOW TO EVOLVE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHING ITSELF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON...MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT LIKELY OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL REACH THE
UPPER 30S. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHUNTED EAST AND WEAK SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING. AS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD...WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ADVECT OVER THE MID SOUTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER...TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR...WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 210818
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
318 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO COOL UNDER CALM WINDS. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE UNDER THE COOL DOME IS PROMOTING PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT FOG THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND
HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THIS CONDITION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS SLOW TO EVOLVE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHING ITSELF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON...MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT LIKELY OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL REACH THE
UPPER 30S. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHUNTED EAST AND WEAK SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING. AS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD...WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ADVECT OVER THE MID SOUTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER...TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT MKL/TUP OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 210818
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
318 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY HAS
PUSHED WELL EAST OF THE REGION. BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALLOWED
TEMPERATURES TO COOL UNDER CALM WINDS. LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE UNDER THE COOL DOME IS PROMOTING PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY NEAR RIVER VALLEYS AND AREAS OF EASTERN
ARKANSAS. CONDITIONS WILL SUPPORT FOG THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING AND
HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THIS CONDITION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THAT TIME.

A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LONGWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. THE SURFACE PATTERN IS SLOW TO EVOLVE WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE ENTRENCHING ITSELF ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. FOR THIS REASON...MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE COLDEST NIGHT LIKELY OCCURRING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHERE PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL REACH THE
UPPER 30S. A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE IS SHUNTED EAST AND WEAK SOUTHERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGHING. AS THE
WESTERN CONUS TROUGH MIGRATES EASTWARD...WARMER 850MB TEMPERATURES
ADVECT OVER THE MID SOUTH WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
REACH THE LOW 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL BE THE WARMEST
OF THE PERIOD.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS...A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIMITED CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. THERE WILL LIKELY
BE A FRONTAL PASSAGE AT SOME POINT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS...HOWEVER...TIMING/LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE
IS EXTREMELY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT MKL/TUP OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMEG 210454 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS. SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. FOR NOW KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE IN.

WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PUSH 80F. GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH PLENTY OF
RIDGING. KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SJM

&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT MKL/TUP OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 210454 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS. SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. FOR NOW KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE IN.

WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PUSH 80F. GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH PLENTY OF
RIDGING. KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SJM

&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT MKL/TUP OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMEG 210454 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS. SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. FOR NOW KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE IN.

WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PUSH 80F. GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH PLENTY OF
RIDGING. KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SJM

&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT MKL/TUP OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 210454 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1153 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS. SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. FOR NOW KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE IN.

WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PUSH 80F. GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH PLENTY OF
RIDGING. KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SJM

&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT MKL/TUP OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMEG 210417
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1117 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS. SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. FOR NOW KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE IN.

WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PUSH 80F. GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH PLENTY OF
RIDGING. KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SJM

&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT MKL OVERNIGHT AT MKL.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 210417
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1117 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS. SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. FOR NOW KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE IN.

WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PUSH 80F. GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH PLENTY OF
RIDGING. KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SJM

&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT MKL OVERNIGHT AT MKL.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 210417
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1117 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS. SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. FOR NOW KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE IN.

WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PUSH 80F. GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH PLENTY OF
RIDGING. KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SJM

&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT MKL OVERNIGHT AT MKL.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 210417
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1117 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS. SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. FOR NOW KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE IN.

WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PUSH 80F. GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH PLENTY OF
RIDGING. KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SJM

&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT MKL OVERNIGHT AT MKL.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 210235
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
935 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS. SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. FOR NOW KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE IN.

WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PUSH 80F. GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH PLENTY OF
RIDGING. KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT MKL OVERNIGHT AT MKL.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 210235
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
935 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE 40S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS COOLER AND DRY AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND A COLD FRONT.  NO RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS. SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. FOR NOW KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE IN.

WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PUSH 80F. GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH PLENTY OF
RIDGING. KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT MKL OVERNIGHT AT MKL.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 202328
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
628 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS. SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. FOR NOW KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE IN.

WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PUSH 80F. GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH PLENTY OF
RIDGING. KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT MKL OVERNIGHT AT MKL.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 202328
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
628 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS. SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. FOR NOW KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE IN.

WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PUSH 80F. GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH PLENTY OF
RIDGING. KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR/IFR VISIBILITIES AT MKL OVERNIGHT AT MKL.
OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 201957
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS. SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. FOR NOW KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE IN.

WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PUSH 80F. GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH PLENTY OF
RIDGING. KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

OTHER THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG AT MKL NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY...VFR
WILL PREVAIL AT MIDSOUTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 201957
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ALONG
WITH SCATTERED...MAINLY MIDDLE CLOUDS. SPRINKLES HAVE MOVED OFF TO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS.

TONIGHT...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WINDS
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN WITH CLEARING SKIES. LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S
MOST PLACES.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD
OVER THE AREA WHILE A RIDGE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. EXPECT PLENTY
OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL
DROP DOWN INTO 40S TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME 30S ALONG THE TN RIVER.
SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AS WELL WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHS WILL PUSH
THROUGH WITH SOME CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE. FOR NOW KEPT THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE THE SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED WITH ONLY WEAK
LIFT. TEMPS WILL BE COOL THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. TEMPS
WILL START TO WARM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH EXITS
AND UPPER RIDGING STARTS TO NUDGE IN.

WEEKEND...STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE MIDSOUTH ALLOWING TEMPS
WILL CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS WILL PUSH 80F. GFS HAS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHING ON MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY WITH PLENTY OF
RIDGING. KEPT MONDAY DRY FOR NOW.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

OTHER THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG AT MKL NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY...VFR
WILL PREVAIL AT MIDSOUTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 201721 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE STILL SHOWING UP BUT THEY HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE LAST HOUR. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. H2O
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALREADY PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN MIDSOUTH. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN WI TO
NORTHERN MO INTO WESTERN KS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS HAD SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TN
AHEAD THIS FRONT WITH A FEW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES SHOWING UP ON
RADAR...POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED MAINLY IN LOW SPOTS AND NEAR
WATER.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT MOSTLY RAIN
FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH WARMING UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND.

THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY ALONG
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FROM NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY EARLY
THIS EVENING TAKING THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP FOR TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO
OUR WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH GRADUAL WARMING AND NO RAIN. SOME SPOTS MAY HIT THE 80
DEGREE MARK FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

OTHER THAN PATCHY GROUND FOG AT MKL NEAR SUNRISE TUESDAY...VFR
WILL PREVAIL AT MIDSOUTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 201512
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1012 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE STILL SHOWING UP BUT THEY HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE LAST HOUR. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. H2O
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALREADY PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN MIDSOUTH. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN WI TO
NORTHERN MO INTO WESTERN KS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS HAD SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TN
AHEAD THIS FRONT WITH A FEW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES SHOWING UP ON
RADAR...POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED MAINLY IN LOW SPOTS AND NEAR
WATER.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT MOSTLY RAIN
FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH WARMING UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND.

THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY ALONG
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FROM NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY EARLY
THIS EVENING TAKING THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP FOR TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO
OUR WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH GRADUAL WARMING AND NO RAIN. SOME SPOTS MAY HIT THE 80
DEGREE MARK FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MKL BEING MOST
AFFECTED BY VISBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO <3SM. THESE REDUCTIONS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z AT MKL...HOWEVER...FOG DISSIPATION WILL
RAPIDLY ENSUE THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 201512
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1012 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. A FEW
SPRINKLES ARE STILL SHOWING UP BUT THEY HAVE BEEN DECREASING OVER
THE LAST HOUR. MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM
THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH. H2O
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALREADY PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN MIDSOUTH. FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN WI TO
NORTHERN MO INTO WESTERN KS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS HAD SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TN
AHEAD THIS FRONT WITH A FEW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES SHOWING UP ON
RADAR...POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED MAINLY IN LOW SPOTS AND NEAR
WATER.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT MOSTLY RAIN
FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH WARMING UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND.

THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY ALONG
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FROM NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY EARLY
THIS EVENING TAKING THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP FOR TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO
OUR WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH GRADUAL WARMING AND NO RAIN. SOME SPOTS MAY HIT THE 80
DEGREE MARK FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MKL BEING MOST
AFFECTED BY VISBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO <3SM. THESE REDUCTIONS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z AT MKL...HOWEVER...FOG DISSIPATION WILL
RAPIDLY ENSUE THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 201125
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN WI TO
NORTHERN MO INTO WESTERN KS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS HAD SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TN AHEAD
THIS FRONT WITH A FEW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES SHOWING UP ON
RADAR...POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED MAINLY IN LOW SPOTS AND NEAR
WATER.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT MOSTLY RAIN
FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH WARMING UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND.

THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY ALONG
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FROM NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY EARLY
THIS EVENING TAKING THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP FOR TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO
OUR WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH GRADUAL WARMING AND NO RAIN. SOME SPOTS MAY HIT THE 80
DEGREE MARK FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

JCL

AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MKL BEING MOST
AFFECTED BY VISBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO <3SM. THESE REDUCTIONS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z AT MKL...HOWEVER...FOG DISSIPATION WILL
RAPIDLY ENSUE THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 201125
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
625 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN WI TO
NORTHERN MO INTO WESTERN KS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS HAD SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TN AHEAD
THIS FRONT WITH A FEW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES SHOWING UP ON
RADAR...POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED MAINLY IN LOW SPOTS AND NEAR
WATER.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT MOSTLY RAIN
FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH WARMING UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND.

THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY ALONG
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FROM NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY EARLY
THIS EVENING TAKING THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP FOR TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO
OUR WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH GRADUAL WARMING AND NO RAIN. SOME SPOTS MAY HIT THE 80
DEGREE MARK FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

JCL

AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

SOME PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS MORNING WITH MKL BEING MOST
AFFECTED BY VISBYS OCCASIONALLY REDUCED TO <3SM. THESE REDUCTIONS
MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 14Z AT MKL...HOWEVER...FOG DISSIPATION WILL
RAPIDLY ENSUE THEREAFTER. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 200908
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
408 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN WI TO
NORTHERN MO INTO WESTERN KS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS HAD SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TN AHEAD
THIS FRONT WITH A FEW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES SHOWING UP ON
RADAR...POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED MAINLY IN LOW SPOTS AND NEAR
WATER.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT MOSTLY RAIN
FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH WARMING UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND.

THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY ALONG
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FROM NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY EARLY
THIS EVENING TAKING THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP FOR TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO
OUR WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH GRADUAL WARMING AND NO RAIN. SOME SPOTS MAY HIT THE 80
DEGREE MARK FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT MKL TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5KT TOMORROW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. OBS UNAVAILABLE FOR TAF SITES
MEM...MKL...JBR.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 200908
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
408 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM SOUTHERN WI TO
NORTHERN MO INTO WESTERN KS. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS HAD SPREAD INTO
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND NORTHWEST TN AHEAD
THIS FRONT WITH A FEW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES SHOWING UP ON
RADAR...POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S AND
LOWER 50S. PATCHY FOG WAS OBSERVED MAINLY IN LOW SPOTS AND NEAR
WATER.

THE 00Z MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT MOSTLY RAIN
FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR THIS WEEK WITH COOL TO MILD
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH WARMING UP SOME NEXT WEEKEND.

THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH WILL APPROACH THE REGION TODAY ALONG
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS LOOK TO
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SPRINKLES FROM NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CLIMB INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH BY EARLY
THIS EVENING TAKING THE LIMITED MOISTURE WITH IT. THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT BUT LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS
EXPECTED...DID NOT MENTION ANY PRECIP FOR TONIGHT. SKIES WILL BECOME
MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

ON TUESDAY...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. COOLER
AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
STRENGTHENS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO
OUR WEST WILL MOVE EASTWARD KEEPING CONDITIONS RAIN FREE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN OPEN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS IS
EXPECTED.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE REGION FROM THE
WEST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH GRADUAL WARMING AND NO RAIN. SOME SPOTS MAY HIT THE 80
DEGREE MARK FOR A HIGH TEMPERATURE OVER THE WEEKEND.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT MKL TONIGHT. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 5KT TOMORROW FROM THE SOUTHWEST. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. OBS UNAVAILABLE FOR TAF SITES
MEM...MKL...JBR.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








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