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000
FXUS64 KMEG 241122
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/


A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR JACKSON TENNESSEE TO
BATESVILLE ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY TONIGHT. EXPECT
PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THE DRY AIR TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER. SO DESPITE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
LOW THUS MAKING IT NOT FEEL AS BAD.

HOWEVER...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS.

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE UPCOMING 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY GENERALLY 5-10KTS TODAY...LESS THAN
5KT OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TUP.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 241122
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 200 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014/


A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR JACKSON TENNESSEE TO
BATESVILLE ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY TONIGHT. EXPECT
PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THE DRY AIR TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER. SO DESPITE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
LOW THUS MAKING IT NOT FEEL AS BAD.

HOWEVER...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS.

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING MOST OF THE UPCOMING 24
HOURS. WINDS WILL BE NORTHERLY GENERALLY 5-10KTS TODAY...LESS THAN
5KT OVERNIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TUP.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 240700
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
200 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR JACKSON TENNESSEE TO
BATESVILLE ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY TONIGHT. EXPECT
PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THE DRY AIR TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER. SO DESPITE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
LOW THUS MAKING IT NOT FEEL AS BAD.

HOWEVER...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS.

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

BUILDING CONFIDENCE THAT LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL IMPACT EACH
TAF SITE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN AT TUP AND MKL WITH IFR AND POSSIBILITY LIFR WX. AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA DRIER AIR USHERED IN FROM
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE TUP WHERE
VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE PERIOD
NEAR SUNSET WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

JAB


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 240700
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
200 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR JACKSON TENNESSEE TO
BATESVILLE ARKANSAS. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE AREA. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH BY TONIGHT. EXPECT
PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY PUSH EAST ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THE DRY AIR TO LINGER A LITTLE LONGER. SO DESPITE TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...THE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN
LOW THUS MAKING IT NOT FEEL AS BAD.

HOWEVER...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND.
EXPECT HIGHS TO RETURN TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S WILL PRODUCE
HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE.

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS.

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE MIDSOUTH AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE OHIO VALLEY.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S
TO MID 60S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

BUILDING CONFIDENCE THAT LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL IMPACT EACH
TAF SITE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN AT TUP AND MKL WITH IFR AND POSSIBILITY LIFR WX. AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA DRIER AIR USHERED IN FROM
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE TUP WHERE
VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE PERIOD
NEAR SUNSET WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

JAB


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 240445
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MO
EARLY THIS EVENING. A VARIETY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS SPARKED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THIS MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTH
MS AT EARLY EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THESE STORMS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH HAS MARKEDLY STABILIZED ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND
NORTHWEST TN AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH MS
AND EAST CENTRAL AR BY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. LEFT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN CASE THE ATMOSPHERE TRIES TO DESTABILIZE SOME AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AGAIN ONCE
THE STRONGER STORMS MOVE OUT OF NORTH MS AND WILL REMOVE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDSOUTH. ONE MCS HAS MOVED ACROSS WRN KY/SE MO INTO THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NE AR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS
JUST SOUTH OF I-40 FROM SELMER NORTHEAST TOWARD LEXINGTON
INCLUDING JACKSON.

STORMS ARE FEEDING ON A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S...CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -7C TO -8C. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG WITH
MID LEVEL AT ABOUT 30 KTS...BUT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZATION.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS MO
BOOTHEEL AND MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS. THE MCS OVER NE AR WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SSW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
MAINLY A WIND THREAT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ISOLD-SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT AS
WELL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SLOW
MOVING STORMS.

TONIGHT...MCS WILL DEPART INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
AT THAT POINT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE WITH A DIMINISHING
SEVERE THREAT. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-40 WITH A DRIER...COOLER AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AREAS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES.
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL BE LOW...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUMMER HEAT TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING 594 DM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. STILL THINK THE MEX IS TOO HOT
WITH ITS UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES
OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY
LAUNCH AN MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MIDSOUTH SO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN THROUGH THE AREA BY ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COOL WEATHER FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

BUILDING CONFIDENCE THAT LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL IMPACT EACH
TAF SITE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN AT TUP AND MKL WITH IFR AND POSSIBILITY LIFR WX. AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA DRIER AIR USHERED IN FROM
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE TUP WHERE
VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE PERIOD
NEAR SUNSET WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 240445
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1145 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 718 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MO
EARLY THIS EVENING. A VARIETY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS SPARKED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THIS MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTH
MS AT EARLY EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THESE STORMS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH HAS MARKEDLY STABILIZED ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND
NORTHWEST TN AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH MS
AND EAST CENTRAL AR BY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. LEFT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN CASE THE ATMOSPHERE TRIES TO DESTABILIZE SOME AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AGAIN ONCE
THE STRONGER STORMS MOVE OUT OF NORTH MS AND WILL REMOVE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDSOUTH. ONE MCS HAS MOVED ACROSS WRN KY/SE MO INTO THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NE AR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS
JUST SOUTH OF I-40 FROM SELMER NORTHEAST TOWARD LEXINGTON
INCLUDING JACKSON.

STORMS ARE FEEDING ON A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S...CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -7C TO -8C. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG WITH
MID LEVEL AT ABOUT 30 KTS...BUT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZATION.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS MO
BOOTHEEL AND MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS. THE MCS OVER NE AR WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SSW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
MAINLY A WIND THREAT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ISOLD-SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT AS
WELL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SLOW
MOVING STORMS.

TONIGHT...MCS WILL DEPART INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
AT THAT POINT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE WITH A DIMINISHING
SEVERE THREAT. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-40 WITH A DRIER...COOLER AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AREAS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES.
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL BE LOW...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUMMER HEAT TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING 594 DM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. STILL THINK THE MEX IS TOO HOT
WITH ITS UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES
OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY
LAUNCH AN MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MIDSOUTH SO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN THROUGH THE AREA BY ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COOL WEATHER FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

BUILDING CONFIDENCE THAT LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL IMPACT EACH
TAF SITE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE
SEEN AT TUP AND MKL WITH IFR AND POSSIBILITY LIFR WX. AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA DRIER AIR USHERED IN FROM
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR CIGS TO SLOWLY LIFT AND SCATTER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE TUP WHERE
VFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LATER IN THE PERIOD
NEAR SUNSET WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND SKIES WILL CLEAR.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 240018 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
718 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MO
EARLY THIS EVENING. A VARIETY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS SPARKED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THIS MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTH
MS AT EARLY EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THESE STORMS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH HAS MARKEDLY STABILIZED ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND
NORTHWEST TN AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH MS
AND EAST CENTRAL AR BY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. LEFT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN CASE THE ATMOSPHERE TRIES TO DESTABILIZE SOME AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AGAIN ONCE
THE STRONGER STORMS MOVE OUT OF NORTH MS AND WILL REMOVE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDSOUTH. ONE MCS HAS MOVED ACROSS WRN KY/SE MO INTO THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NE AR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS
JUST SOUTH OF I-40 FROM SELMER NORTHEAST TOWARD LEXINGTON
INCLUDING JACKSON.

STORMS ARE FEEDING ON A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S...CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -7C TO -8C. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG WITH
MID LEVEL AT ABOUT 30 KTS...BUT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZATION.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS MO
BOOTHEEL AND MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS. THE MCS OVER NE AR WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SSW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
MAINLY A WIND THREAT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ISOLD-SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT AS
WELL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SLOW
MOVING STORMS.

TONIGHT...MCS WILL DEPART INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
AT THAT POINT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE WITH A DIMINISHING
SEVERE THREAT. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-40 WITH A DRIER...COOLER AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AREAS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES.
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL BE LOW...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUMMER HEAT TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING 594 DM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. STILL THINK THE MEX IS TOO HOT
WITH ITS UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES
OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY
LAUNCH AN MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MIDSOUTH SO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN THROUGH THE AREA BY ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COOL WEATHER FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

CONVECTION NEARLY OUT OF THE WAY AT ALL THE SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING NEAR TUP. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
START OFF VFR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
AFTER PASSAGE MVFR CIGS/VIS IS LIKELY TO FORM AND THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS. VFR EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
VEER NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 240018 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
718 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IL ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MO
EARLY THIS EVENING. A VARIETY OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS SPARKED NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THIS MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE PUSHING SOUTHWARD OUT OF NORTH
MS AT EARLY EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE BEHIND THESE STORMS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH HAS MARKEDLY STABILIZED ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL...AND
NORTHWEST TN AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH MS
AND EAST CENTRAL AR BY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. LEFT IN A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED BUT WILL LEAVE IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN CASE THE ATMOSPHERE TRIES TO DESTABILIZE SOME AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. WILL UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AGAIN ONCE
THE STRONGER STORMS MOVE OUT OF NORTH MS AND WILL REMOVE THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDSOUTH. ONE MCS HAS MOVED ACROSS WRN KY/SE MO INTO THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NE AR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS
JUST SOUTH OF I-40 FROM SELMER NORTHEAST TOWARD LEXINGTON
INCLUDING JACKSON.

STORMS ARE FEEDING ON A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S...CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -7C TO -8C. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG WITH
MID LEVEL AT ABOUT 30 KTS...BUT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZATION.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS MO
BOOTHEEL AND MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS. THE MCS OVER NE AR WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SSW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
MAINLY A WIND THREAT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ISOLD-SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT AS
WELL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SLOW
MOVING STORMS.

TONIGHT...MCS WILL DEPART INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
AT THAT POINT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE WITH A DIMINISHING
SEVERE THREAT. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-40 WITH A DRIER...COOLER AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AREAS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES.
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL BE LOW...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUMMER HEAT TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING 594 DM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. STILL THINK THE MEX IS TOO HOT
WITH ITS UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES
OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY
LAUNCH AN MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MIDSOUTH SO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN THROUGH THE AREA BY ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COOL WEATHER FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

CONVECTION NEARLY OUT OF THE WAY AT ALL THE SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING NEAR TUP. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
START OFF VFR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
AFTER PASSAGE MVFR CIGS/VIS IS LIKELY TO FORM AND THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS. VFR EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
VEER NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 232327
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDSOUTH. ONE MCS HAS MOVED ACROSS WRN KY/SE MO INTO THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NE AR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS
JUST SOUTH OF I-40 FROM SELMER NORTHEAST TOWARD LEXINGTON
INCLUDING JACKSON.

STORMS ARE FEEDING ON A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S...CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -7C TO -8C. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG WITH
MID LEVEL AT ABOUT 30 KTS...BUT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZATION.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS MO
BOOTHEEL AND MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS. THE MCS OVER NE AR WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SSW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
MAINLY A WIND THREAT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ISOLD-SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT AS
WELL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SLOW
MOVING STORMS.

TONIGHT...MCS WILL DEPART INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
AT THAT POINT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE WITH A DIMINISHING
SEVERE THREAT. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-40 WITH A DRIER...COOLER AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AREAS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES.
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL BE LOW...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUMMER HEAT TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING 594 DM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. STILL THINK THE MEX IS TOO HOT
WITH ITS UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES
OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY
LAUNCH AN MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MIDSOUTH SO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN THROUGH THE AREA BY ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COOL WEATHER FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

CONVECTION NEARLY OUT OF THE WAY AT ALL THE SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING NEAR TUP. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
START OFF VFR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
AFTER PASSAGE MVFR CIGS/VIS IS LIKELY TO FORM AND THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS. VFR EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
VEER NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 232327
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDSOUTH. ONE MCS HAS MOVED ACROSS WRN KY/SE MO INTO THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NE AR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS
JUST SOUTH OF I-40 FROM SELMER NORTHEAST TOWARD LEXINGTON
INCLUDING JACKSON.

STORMS ARE FEEDING ON A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S...CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -7C TO -8C. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG WITH
MID LEVEL AT ABOUT 30 KTS...BUT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZATION.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS MO
BOOTHEEL AND MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS. THE MCS OVER NE AR WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SSW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
MAINLY A WIND THREAT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ISOLD-SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT AS
WELL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SLOW
MOVING STORMS.

TONIGHT...MCS WILL DEPART INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
AT THAT POINT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE WITH A DIMINISHING
SEVERE THREAT. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-40 WITH A DRIER...COOLER AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AREAS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES.
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL BE LOW...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUMMER HEAT TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING 594 DM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. STILL THINK THE MEX IS TOO HOT
WITH ITS UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES
OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY
LAUNCH AN MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MIDSOUTH SO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN THROUGH THE AREA BY ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COOL WEATHER FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

CONVECTION NEARLY OUT OF THE WAY AT ALL THE SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME LINGERING NEAR TUP. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS WILL
START OFF VFR THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.
AFTER PASSAGE MVFR CIGS/VIS IS LIKELY TO FORM AND THEN LINGER
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE MORNING HOURS. VFR EXPECTED AGAIN LATE IN
THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
VEER NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 7-10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 232015
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
315 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDSOUTH. ONE MCS HAS MOVED ACROSS WRN KY/SE MO INTO THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NE AR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS
JUST SOUTH OF I-40 FROM SELMER NORTHEAST TOWARD LEXINGTON
INCLUDING JACKSON.

STORMS ARE FEEDING ON A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S...CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -7C TO -8C. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG WITH
MID LEVEL AT ABOUT 30 KTS...BUT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZATION.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS MO
BOOTHEEL AND MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS. THE MCS OVER NE AR WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SSW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
MAINLY A WIND THREAT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ISOLD-SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT AS
WELL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SLOW
MOVING STORMS.

TONIGHT...MCS WILL DEPART INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
AT THAT POINT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE WITH A DIMINISHING
SEVERE THREAT. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-40 WITH A DRIER...COOLER AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AREAS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES.
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL BE LOW...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUMMER HEAT TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING 594 DM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. STILL THINK THE MEX IS TOO HOT
WITH ITS UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES
OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY
LAUNCH AN MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MIDSOUTH SO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN THROUGH THE AREA BY ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COOL WEATHER FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS
DECREASING AS THEY ENTER INTO THE REGION. ADDED VCTS FOR KJBR AND
KMKL THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI SO I
ADDED VCTS AT KTUP. FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KTUP AND KMKL DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
EACH TAF SITE BEGINNING WITH KJBR AROUND 00Z.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 232015
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
315 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TRIGGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
MIDSOUTH. ONE MCS HAS MOVED ACROSS WRN KY/SE MO INTO THE MO
BOOTHEEL AND NE AR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME REPORTS OF WIND
DAMAGE. ANOTHER CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN EXTENDS
JUST SOUTH OF I-40 FROM SELMER NORTHEAST TOWARD LEXINGTON
INCLUDING JACKSON.

STORMS ARE FEEDING ON A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S...CAPES GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES OF -7C TO -8C. WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE NOT THAT STRONG WITH
MID LEVEL AT ABOUT 30 KTS...BUT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZATION.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES UNTIL 7 PM ACROSS MO
BOOTHEEL AND MUCH OF EAST ARKANSAS. THE MCS OVER NE AR WILL
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SSW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WITH
MAINLY A WIND THREAT. ELSEWHERE EXPECT ISOLD-SCT STORMS TO DEVELOP
SOME OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH MAINLY A WIND THREAT AS
WELL. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SLOW
MOVING STORMS.

TONIGHT...MCS WILL DEPART INTO CENTRAL ARKANSAS BY EARLY THIS
EVENING AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTH. MODELS ARE INDICATING
SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
AT THAT POINT INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE WITH A DIMINISHING
SEVERE THREAT. BY MIDNIGHT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH OF
I-40 WITH A DRIER...COOLER AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
AREAS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA
THURSDAY MORNING WITH CLEARING SKIES AND DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES.
AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND DRY AIRMASS WILL PUSH IN FOR THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER...THOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STILL BE LOW...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SUMMER HEAT TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING 594 DM UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. LOOKS LIKE HIGHS WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER AND MID 90S
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY LEVELS. STILL THINK THE MEX IS TOO HOT
WITH ITS UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES MAY CLIMB ABOVE 100 DEGREES
OVER THE WEEKEND. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MAY
LAUNCH AN MCS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE MIDSOUTH SO KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES
WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT IS DRIVEN THROUGH THE AREA BY ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY
STRONG UPPER TROF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...DRY AND COOL WEATHER FILTERS IN BEHIND THE
FRONT. WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM QUEBEC INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS
DECREASING AS THEY ENTER INTO THE REGION. ADDED VCTS FOR KJBR AND
KMKL THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI SO I
ADDED VCTS AT KTUP. FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KTUP AND KMKL DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
EACH TAF SITE BEGINNING WITH KJBR AROUND 00Z.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 231810
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
110 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH IS BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TODAY. THERE IS THE WEAK UPPER
LOW SITTING TO THE SOUTH NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS THROWING SOME
MOISTURE UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH...A COLD FRONT IS
PRESSING SOUTH. THIS FEATURE HAS KICKED OF AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN PROPAGATING SWWD THANKS TO THE DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS TREND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL THIS
AFTERNOON...PER 13Z HRRR. UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY...TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH WHILE DROPPING POPS BACK TO 20 PERCENT IN
THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
THE MO BOOTHEEL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. ALTHOUGH...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY
MID-MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO AFFECT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS
MORNING. CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA
AND INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PLEASANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
BY FRIDAY BUT EVEN THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THUS NOT FEELING AS WARM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS LIKELY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.



&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROME QUEBEC INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS
DECREASING AS THEY ENTER INTO THE REGION. ADDED VCTS FOR KJBR AND
KMKL THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI SO I
ADDED VCTS AT KTUP. FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KTUP AND KMKL DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
EACH TAF SITE BEGINNING WITH KJBR AROUND 00Z.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 231810
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
110 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH IS BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TODAY. THERE IS THE WEAK UPPER
LOW SITTING TO THE SOUTH NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS THROWING SOME
MOISTURE UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH...A COLD FRONT IS
PRESSING SOUTH. THIS FEATURE HAS KICKED OF AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN PROPAGATING SWWD THANKS TO THE DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS TREND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL THIS
AFTERNOON...PER 13Z HRRR. UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY...TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH WHILE DROPPING POPS BACK TO 20 PERCENT IN
THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
THE MO BOOTHEEL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. ALTHOUGH...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY
MID-MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO AFFECT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS
MORNING. CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA
AND INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PLEASANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
BY FRIDAY BUT EVEN THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THUS NOT FEELING AS WARM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS LIKELY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.



&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROME QUEBEC INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HRRR MODEL HAS COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS
DECREASING AS THEY ENTER INTO THE REGION. ADDED VCTS FOR KJBR AND
KMKL THROUGH THIS EVENING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GULF HAS CAUSED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI SO I
ADDED VCTS AT KTUP. FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT KTUP AND KMKL DUE
TO LIGHT WINDS AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONT PASSES
EACH TAF SITE BEGINNING WITH KJBR AROUND 00Z.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 231610
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1110 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH IS BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TODAY. THERE IS THE WEAK UPPER
LOW SITTING TO THE SOUTH NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS THROWING SOME
MOISTURE UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH...A COLD FRONT IS
PRESSING SOUTH. THIS FEATURE HAS KICKED OF AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN PROPAGATING SWWD THANKS TO THE DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS TREND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL THIS
AFTERNOON...PER 13Z HRRR. UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY...TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH WHILE DROPPING POPS BACK TO 20 PERCENT IN
THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
THE MO BOOTHEEL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. ALTHOUGH...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY
MID-MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO AFFECT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS
MORNING. CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA
AND INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PLEASANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
BY FRIDAY BUT EVEN THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THUS NOT FEELING AS WARM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS LIKELY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES.
HOWEVER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT. WILL INCLUDE VCSH OR VCTS AT JBR AND TUP AND JBR.
WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND AMEND MEM IF IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 231610
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1110 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH IS BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS TODAY. THERE IS THE WEAK UPPER
LOW SITTING TO THE SOUTH NEAR NEW ORLEANS AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THE WEAK UPPER LOW IS THROWING SOME
MOISTURE UP OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLD-
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH...A COLD FRONT IS
PRESSING SOUTH. THIS FEATURE HAS KICKED OF AN AREA OF
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE OH/MS RIVERS. THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN PROPAGATING SWWD THANKS TO THE DEEP NORTHEAST FLOW
ALOFT. THIS TREND WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY
SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MO BOOTHEEL THIS
AFTERNOON...PER 13Z HRRR. UPPED POPS SLIGHTLY...TO 50 PERCENT
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH WHILE DROPPING POPS BACK TO 20 PERCENT IN
THE MEMPHIS METRO AREA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND
THE MO BOOTHEEL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. UPDATE
ALREADY OUT.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. ALTHOUGH...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY
MID-MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO AFFECT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS
MORNING. CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA
AND INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PLEASANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
BY FRIDAY BUT EVEN THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THUS NOT FEELING AS WARM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS LIKELY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES.
HOWEVER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT. WILL INCLUDE VCSH OR VCTS AT JBR AND TUP AND JBR.
WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND AMEND MEM IF IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 231126
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. ALTHOUGH...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY
MID-MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO AFFECT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS
MORNING. CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA
AND INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PLEASANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
BY FRIDAY BUT EVEN THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THUS NOT FEELING AS WARM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS LIKELY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES.
HOWEVER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT. WILL INCLUDE VCSH OR VCTS AT JBR AND TUP AND JBR.
WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND AMEND MEM IF IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 231126
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. ALTHOUGH...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY
MID-MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO AFFECT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS
MORNING. CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA
AND INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PLEASANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
BY FRIDAY BUT EVEN THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THUS NOT FEELING AS WARM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS LIKELY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS EVENING ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES.
HOWEVER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SIGNIFICANT. WILL INCLUDE VCSH OR VCTS AT JBR AND TUP AND JBR.
WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS AND AMEND MEM IF IT LOOKS LIKE SHOWERS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY FOR MOST OF THE
DAY...SHIFTING FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 230721
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
221 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. ALTHOUGH...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY
MID-MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO AFFECT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS
MORNING. CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA
AND INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PLEASANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
BY FRIDAY BUT EVEN THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THUS NOT FEELING AS WARM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS LIKELY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR LEVELS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED
SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT
WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 230721
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
221 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED NEAR NEW ORLEANS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
TODAY. ALTHOUGH...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR BY
MID-MORNING WITH CHANCES INCREASING BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST
TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. EXPECT
SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
TO AFFECT NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL THIS
MORNING. CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THIS AREA
AND INTO NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS THE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR LARGE HAIL
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE REST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI BY THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PLEASANT WEATHER WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. THE HIGH WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST
BY FRIDAY BUT EVEN THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY THE DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THUS NOT FEELING AS WARM.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY AND WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

BEAUTIFUL WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING AND MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS LIKELY
IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR LEVELS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED
SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT
WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 230535
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1235 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

UPDATE...

SATELLITE AND RADAR HAVE SHOWN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST AL THAT ARE MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO CLIP
TALLAHATCHIE AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES IN NORTH MS. BASED ON THE 00Z
NAM AND LATEST HRRR...UPDATED TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF NORTH MS.

JCL

UPDATE...  /ISSUED 948 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH AL
AND SOUTH MS BORDER THIS EVENING MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS AND WEST TN EARLIER TODAY HAVE JUST
ABOUT DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE REGION FOR THE NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WERE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OUT OF YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTH MS AND
MAY CLIP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY. OTHERWISE
RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...THIS IS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE EARLIER FORECAST.

SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE REALLY INCREASED FROM RECENT DAYS AND ARE
PRESENTLY MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG WITH
DECREASING TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

UPDATED GRIDS AND GRIDS WILL BE SENT SOON.

JCL

PREV DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS RETROGRADING SLOWLY. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
INTO AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
ELSW SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID
80S AND NE MS TO AROUND 90 ELSW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALONG THE TN RIVER WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW EXPECT A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED A BIT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSOURI. SOME OF THESE
COULD SNEAK INTO NE ARKANSAS BY MORNING SO ADDED A SMALL POP
THERE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY SNEAKS IN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY DAY
FOR THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE THE WEAK UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL PERSIST AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MORE IMPORTANTLY BY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
NORTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTH
MISSISSIPPI IN THE MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A
LESS HUMID AIRMASS AND COOLER TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL CLIMB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 90 ON FRIDAY AND LOWER 90S ON
SATURDAY. CUT MEX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE IT HAS BEEN TOO WARM
ALL SUMMER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A
BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BE AN MCS
SCENARIO. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE EASTERN U.S. TROF
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN AS MORE ENERGY DIPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS LOOKS TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR LEVELS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED
SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT
WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. &&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 230535
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1235 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

UPDATE...

SATELLITE AND RADAR HAVE SHOWN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST AL THAT ARE MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO CLIP
TALLAHATCHIE AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES IN NORTH MS. BASED ON THE 00Z
NAM AND LATEST HRRR...UPDATED TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF NORTH MS.

JCL

UPDATE...  /ISSUED 948 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH AL
AND SOUTH MS BORDER THIS EVENING MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS AND WEST TN EARLIER TODAY HAVE JUST
ABOUT DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE REGION FOR THE NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WERE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OUT OF YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTH MS AND
MAY CLIP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY. OTHERWISE
RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...THIS IS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE EARLIER FORECAST.

SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE REALLY INCREASED FROM RECENT DAYS AND ARE
PRESENTLY MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG WITH
DECREASING TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

UPDATED GRIDS AND GRIDS WILL BE SENT SOON.

JCL

PREV DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS RETROGRADING SLOWLY. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
INTO AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
ELSW SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID
80S AND NE MS TO AROUND 90 ELSW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALONG THE TN RIVER WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW EXPECT A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED A BIT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSOURI. SOME OF THESE
COULD SNEAK INTO NE ARKANSAS BY MORNING SO ADDED A SMALL POP
THERE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY SNEAKS IN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY DAY
FOR THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE THE WEAK UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL PERSIST AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MORE IMPORTANTLY BY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
NORTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTH
MISSISSIPPI IN THE MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A
LESS HUMID AIRMASS AND COOLER TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL CLIMB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 90 ON FRIDAY AND LOWER 90S ON
SATURDAY. CUT MEX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE IT HAS BEEN TOO WARM
ALL SUMMER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A
BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BE AN MCS
SCENARIO. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE EASTERN U.S. TROF
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN AS MORE ENERGY DIPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS LOOKS TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR LEVELS. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE LIMITED
SO HAVE NOT MENTIONED IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT
WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY EVENING. &&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 230359 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1059 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

SATELLITE AND RADAR HAVE SHOWN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST AL THAT ARE MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO CLIP
TALLAHATCHIE AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES IN NORTH MS. BASED ON THE 00Z
NAM AND LATEST HRRR...UPDATED TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF NORTH MS.

JCL

UPDATE...  /ISSUED 948 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH AL
AND SOUTH MS BORDER THIS EVENING MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS AND WEST TN EARLIER TODAY HAVE JUST
ABOUT DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE REGION FOR THE NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WERE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OUT OF YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTH MS AND
MAY CLIP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY. OTHERWISE
RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...THIS IS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE EARLIER FORECAST.

SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE REALLY INCREASED FROM RECENT DAYS AND ARE
PRESENTLY MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG WITH
DECREASING TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

UPDATED GRIDS AND GRIDS WILL BE SENT SOON.

JCL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS RETROGRADING SLOWLY. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
INTO AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
ELSW SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID
80S AND NE MS TO AROUND 90 ELSW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALONG THE TN RIVER WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW EXPECT A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED A BIT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSOURI. SOME OF THESE
COULD SNEAK INTO NE ARKANSAS BY MORNING SO ADDED A SMALL POP
THERE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY SNEAKS IN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY DAY
FOR THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE THE WEAK UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL PERSIST AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MORE IMPORTANTLY BY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
NORTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTH
MISSISSIPPI IN THE MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A
LESS HUMID AIRMASS AND COOLER TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL CLIMB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 90 ON FRIDAY AND LOWER 90S ON
SATURDAY. CUT MEX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE IT HAS BEEN TOO WARM
ALL SUMMER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A
BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BE AN MCS
SCENARIO. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE EASTERN U.S. TROF
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN AS MORE ENERGY DIPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS LOOKS TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 230359 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1059 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

SATELLITE AND RADAR HAVE SHOWN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST AL THAT ARE MOVING GENERALLY
WESTWARD. OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO CLIP
TALLAHATCHIE AND YALOBUSHA COUNTIES IN NORTH MS. BASED ON THE 00Z
NAM AND LATEST HRRR...UPDATED TO INCLUDE AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT
ACROSS MOST OF NORTH MS.

JCL

UPDATE...  /ISSUED 948 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH AL
AND SOUTH MS BORDER THIS EVENING MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS AND WEST TN EARLIER TODAY HAVE JUST
ABOUT DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE REGION FOR THE NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WERE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OUT OF YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTH MS AND
MAY CLIP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY. OTHERWISE
RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...THIS IS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE EARLIER FORECAST.

SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE REALLY INCREASED FROM RECENT DAYS AND ARE
PRESENTLY MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG WITH
DECREASING TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

UPDATED GRIDS AND GRIDS WILL BE SENT SOON.

JCL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS RETROGRADING SLOWLY. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
INTO AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
ELSW SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID
80S AND NE MS TO AROUND 90 ELSW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALONG THE TN RIVER WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW EXPECT A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED A BIT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSOURI. SOME OF THESE
COULD SNEAK INTO NE ARKANSAS BY MORNING SO ADDED A SMALL POP
THERE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY SNEAKS IN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY DAY
FOR THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE THE WEAK UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL PERSIST AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MORE IMPORTANTLY BY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
NORTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTH
MISSISSIPPI IN THE MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A
LESS HUMID AIRMASS AND COOLER TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL CLIMB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 90 ON FRIDAY AND LOWER 90S ON
SATURDAY. CUT MEX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE IT HAS BEEN TOO WARM
ALL SUMMER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A
BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BE AN MCS
SCENARIO. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE EASTERN U.S. TROF
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN AS MORE ENERGY DIPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS LOOKS TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 230248 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
948 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH AL
AND SOUTH MS BORDER THIS EVENING MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS AND WEST TN EARLIER TODAY HAVE JUST
ABOUT DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE REGION FOR THE NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WERE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OUT OF YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTH MS AND
MAY CLIP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY. OTHERWISE
RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...THIS IS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE EARLIER FORECAST.

SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE REALLY INCREASED FROM RECENT DAYS AND ARE
PRESENTLY MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG WITH
DECREASING TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

UPDATED GRIDS AND GRIDS WILL BE SENT SOON.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS RETROGRADING SLOWLY. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
INTO AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
ELSW SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID
80S AND NE MS TO AROUND 90 ELSW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALONG THE TN RIVER WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW EXPECT A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED A BIT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSOURI. SOME OF THESE
COULD SNEAK INTO NE ARKANSAS BY MORNING SO ADDED A SMALL POP
THERE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY SNEAKS IN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY DAY
FOR THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE THE WEAK UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL PERSIST AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MORE IMPORTANTLY BY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
NORTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTH
MISSISSIPPI IN THE MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A
LESS HUMID AIRMASS AND COOLER TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL CLIMB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 90 ON FRIDAY AND LOWER 90S ON
SATURDAY. CUT MEX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE IT HAS BEEN TOO WARM
ALL SUMMER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A
BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BE AN MCS
SCENARIO. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE EASTERN U.S. TROF
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN AS MORE ENERGY DIPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS LOOKS TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 230248 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
948 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ALONG THE SOUTH AL
AND SOUTH MS BORDER THIS EVENING MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM THAT SPREAD
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS AND WEST TN EARLIER TODAY HAVE JUST
ABOUT DISSIPATED OR MOVED OUT OF THE REGION FOR THE NIGHT. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WERE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OUT OF YALOBUSHA COUNTY IN NORTH MS AND
MAY CLIP THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY. OTHERWISE
RAIN FREE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE LATEST NAM AND HRRR MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...THIS IS ALREADY INDICATED IN THE EARLIER FORECAST.

SURFACE DEW POINTS HAVE REALLY INCREASED FROM RECENT DAYS AND ARE
PRESENTLY MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A WARMER NIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG WITH
DECREASING TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ALONG WITH LIGHT
WINDS.

UPDATED GRIDS AND GRIDS WILL BE SENT SOON.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS RETROGRADING SLOWLY. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
INTO AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
ELSW SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID
80S AND NE MS TO AROUND 90 ELSW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALONG THE TN RIVER WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW EXPECT A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED A BIT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSOURI. SOME OF THESE
COULD SNEAK INTO NE ARKANSAS BY MORNING SO ADDED A SMALL POP
THERE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY SNEAKS IN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY DAY
FOR THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE THE WEAK UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL PERSIST AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MORE IMPORTANTLY BY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
NORTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTH
MISSISSIPPI IN THE MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A
LESS HUMID AIRMASS AND COOLER TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL CLIMB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 90 ON FRIDAY AND LOWER 90S ON
SATURDAY. CUT MEX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE IT HAS BEEN TOO WARM
ALL SUMMER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A
BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BE AN MCS
SCENARIO. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE EASTERN U.S. TROF
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN AS MORE ENERGY DIPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS LOOKS TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 222334
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS RETROGRADING SLOWLY. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
INTO AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
ELSW SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID
80S AND NE MS TO AROUND 90 ELSW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALONG THE TN RIVER WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW EXPECT A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED A BIT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSOURI. SOME OF THESE
COULD SNEAK INTO NE ARKANSAS BY MORNING SO ADDED A SMALL POP
THERE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY SNEAKS IN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY DAY
FOR THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE THE WEAK UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL PERSIST AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MORE IMPORTANTLY BY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
NORTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTH
MISSISSIPPI IN THE MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A
LESS HUMID AIRMASS AND COOLER TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL CLIMB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 90 ON FRIDAY AND LOWER 90S ON
SATURDAY. CUT MEX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE IT HAS BEEN TOO WARM
ALL SUMMER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A
BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BE AN MCS
SCENARIO. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE EASTERN U.S. TROF
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN AS MORE ENERGY DIPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS LOOKS TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 222334
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS RETROGRADING SLOWLY. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
INTO AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
ELSW SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID
80S AND NE MS TO AROUND 90 ELSW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALONG THE TN RIVER WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW EXPECT A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED A BIT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSOURI. SOME OF THESE
COULD SNEAK INTO NE ARKANSAS BY MORNING SO ADDED A SMALL POP
THERE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY SNEAKS IN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY DAY
FOR THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE THE WEAK UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL PERSIST AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MORE IMPORTANTLY BY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
NORTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTH
MISSISSIPPI IN THE MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A
LESS HUMID AIRMASS AND COOLER TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL CLIMB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 90 ON FRIDAY AND LOWER 90S ON
SATURDAY. CUT MEX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE IT HAS BEEN TOO WARM
ALL SUMMER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A
BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BE AN MCS
SCENARIO. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE EASTERN U.S. TROF
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN AS MORE ENERGY DIPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS LOOKS TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME AREAS OF FOG ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH
MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR OR EVEN IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 222045
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS RETROGRADING SLOWLY. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
INTO AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
ELSW SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID
80S AND NE MS TO AROUND 90 ELSW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALONG THE TN RIVER WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW EXPECT A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED A BIT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSOURI. SOME OF THESE
COULD SNEAK INTO NE ARKANSAS BY MORNING SO ADDED A SMALL POP
THERE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY SNEAKS IN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY DAY
FOR THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE THE WEAK UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL PERSIST AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MORE IMPORTANTLY BY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
NORTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTH
MISSISSIPPI IN THE MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A
LESS HUMID AIRMASS AND COOLER TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL CLIMB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 90 ON FRIDAY AND LOWER 90S ON
SATURDAY. CUT MEX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE IT HAS BEEN TOO WARM
ALL SUMMER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A
BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BE AN MCS
SCENARIO. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE EASTERN U.S. TROF
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN AS MORE ENERGY DIPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS LOOKS TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW WILL LINGER MAINLY NEAR KTUP AND POSSIBLY NEAR MKL THROUGH
SUNSET. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR MKL
AND TUP.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 222045
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A WEAK UPPER LOW LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST IS RETROGRADING SLOWLY. MEANWHILE TO THE NORTH AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEEPER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW HAS MOVED INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
INTO AREAS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE THE AIRMASS IS FAIRLY
UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES AROUND 2500 J/KG. AS A RESULT ISOLD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THOSE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.
ELSW SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPS RANGE FROM THE MID
80S AND NE MS TO AROUND 90 ELSW.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO RETROGRADE AND WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MISSISSIPPI AND
ALONG THE TN RIVER WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTRW EXPECT A QUIET AND MILD NIGHT WITH TEMPS A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT SINCE SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE
INCREASED A BIT IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. LATER TONIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL
TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MISSOURI. SOME OF THESE
COULD SNEAK INTO NE ARKANSAS BY MORNING SO ADDED A SMALL POP
THERE.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE BRIEFLY SNEAKS IN
AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND MUGGY DAY
FOR THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE THE WEAK UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST WILL PERSIST AND MAY HELP TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. MORE IMPORTANTLY BY
AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
MIDSOUTH WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE QUITE UNSTABLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FRONT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
NORTHERN AREAS WITH TEMPS DROPPING INTO THE 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT NORTH
MISSISSIPPI IN THE MORNING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WITH A
LESS HUMID AIRMASS AND COOLER TEMPS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 80S AND LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE 60S. TEMPS WILL CLIMB FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGING
BUILDS IN. HIGHS WILL APPROACH 90 ON FRIDAY AND LOWER 90S ON
SATURDAY. CUT MEX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES SINCE IT HAS BEEN TOO WARM
ALL SUMMER.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO
WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A
BOUNDARY LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS COULD BE AN MCS
SCENARIO. BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE EASTERN U.S. TROF
STRENGTHENS ONCE AGAIN AS MORE ENERGY DIPS SOUTH FROM CANADA. THIS
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY
COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS LOOKS TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL MONDAY INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW WILL LINGER MAINLY NEAR KTUP AND POSSIBLY NEAR MKL THROUGH
SUNSET. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR MKL
AND TUP.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 221824
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
124 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA ATTM. THIS
FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS MAY
HELP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF THE WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TN RIVER.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY SO
HIGHS NEAR 90 LOOK GOOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.

SJM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

CURRENTLY...THE MIDSOUTH REMAINS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH
BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO WARM AS HIGHS YESTERDAY
REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN/T RULE OUT A
FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND
THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AS WINDS TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY AGREEMENT ON TIMING. WITH
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...CAN/T RULE OUT A MCS SKIRTING
OR MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FRONT SHOULD BE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY. THUS EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW WILL LINGER MAINLY NEAR KTUP AND POSSIBLY NEAR MKL THROUGH
SUNSET. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR MKL
AND TUP.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 221824
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
124 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1049 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA ATTM. THIS
FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS MAY
HELP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF THE WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TN RIVER.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY SO
HIGHS NEAR 90 LOOK GOOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.

SJM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

CURRENTLY...THE MIDSOUTH REMAINS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH
BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO WARM AS HIGHS YESTERDAY
REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN/T RULE OUT A
FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND
THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AS WINDS TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY AGREEMENT ON TIMING. WITH
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...CAN/T RULE OUT A MCS SKIRTING
OR MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FRONT SHOULD BE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY. THUS EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LOW WILL LINGER MAINLY NEAR KTUP AND POSSIBLY NEAR MKL THROUGH
SUNSET. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY
TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR MKL
AND TUP.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 221549
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1049 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA ATTM. THIS
FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS MAY
HELP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF THE WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TN RIVER.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY SO
HIGHS NEAR 90 LOOK GOOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

CURRENTLY...THE MIDSOUTH REMAINS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH
BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO WARM AS HIGHS YESTERDAY
REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN/T RULE OUT A
FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND
THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AS WINDS TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY AGREEMENT ON TIMING. WITH
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...CAN/T RULE OUT A MCS SKIRTING
OR MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FRONT SHOULD BE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY. THUS EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST
TODAY...SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR MKL AND TUP.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 221549
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1049 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK UPPER LOW IS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA ATTM. THIS
FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND THIS MAY
HELP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI AND PARTS OF THE WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TN RIVER.
TEMPS ARE RUNNING A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY SO
HIGHS NEAR 90 LOOK GOOD...SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

CURRENTLY...THE MIDSOUTH REMAINS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH
BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO WARM AS HIGHS YESTERDAY
REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN/T RULE OUT A
FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND
THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AS WINDS TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY AGREEMENT ON TIMING. WITH
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...CAN/T RULE OUT A MCS SKIRTING
OR MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FRONT SHOULD BE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY. THUS EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST
TODAY...SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR MKL AND TUP.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 221133
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
633 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

CURRENTLY...THE MIDSOUTH REMAINS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH
BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO WARM AS HIGHS YESTERDAY
REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN/T RULE OUT A
FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND
THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AS WINDS TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY AGREEMENT ON TIMING. WITH
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...CAN/T RULE OUT A MCS SKIRTING
OR MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FRONT SHOULD BE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY. THUS EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST
TODAY...SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR MKL AND TUP.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 221133
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
633 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 215 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

CURRENTLY...THE MIDSOUTH REMAINS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH
BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO WARM AS HIGHS YESTERDAY
REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN/T RULE OUT A
FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND
THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AS WINDS TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY AGREEMENT ON TIMING. WITH
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...CAN/T RULE OUT A MCS SKIRTING
OR MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FRONT SHOULD BE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY. THUS EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PATCHY FOG WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS MORNING. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER LIMITED. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE EAST
TODAY...SHIFTING MORE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY REDEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR MKL AND TUP.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 220715
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
215 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...THE MIDSOUTH REMAINS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH
BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO WARM AS HIGHS YESTERDAY
REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN/T RULE OUT A
FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND
THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AS WINDS TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY AGREEMENT ON TIMING. WITH
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...CAN/T RULE OUT A MCS SKIRTING
OR MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FRONT SHOULD BE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY. THUS EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KMKL AREA AND MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 220715
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
215 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...THE MIDSOUTH REMAINS BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND AN UPPER RIDGE LOCATED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL RETROGRADE BACK TO THE WEST
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE
NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH
BY WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO WARM AS HIGHS YESTERDAY
REMAINED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.

IN ADDITION TO THE UPPER TROUGH...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CAN/T RULE OUT A
FEW STORMS BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS.

SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH BEHIND
THE FRONT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY MOVES INTO THE AREA. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE.

FOR THE WEEKEND...SFC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO NEAR 90 DEGREES AS WINDS TURN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. HOWEVER...MODELS DO NOT HAVE ANY AGREEMENT ON TIMING. WITH
WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA...CAN/T RULE OUT A MCS SKIRTING
OR MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FRONT SHOULD BE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY. THUS EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KMKL AREA AND MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 220513
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1213 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. MADE A
FEW TWEAKS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH AL
WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT CAUSING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST
TN. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TN INTO NORTH MS.

ALSO...ADDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR
FOR IT POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

JCL

DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
FINE MID-SUMMER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE TYPICAL JULY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOR OUR AREA...OTHERWISE NEXT FOCUS IS ON
COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE THOUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE A
MORE RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY OVER OUR REGION AS WEAK SYSTEMS RIDE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THIS PUSH OF COOL AIR FOR NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS
SHOWN BY BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR
LATE JULY AND MAY AGAIN RESULT IN NEAR RECORD OR RECORD COOL
TEMPERATURES.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KMKL AREA AND MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 220513
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1213 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. MADE A
FEW TWEAKS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH AL
WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT CAUSING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST
TN. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TN INTO NORTH MS.

ALSO...ADDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR
FOR IT POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

JCL

DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
FINE MID-SUMMER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE TYPICAL JULY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOR OUR AREA...OTHERWISE NEXT FOCUS IS ON
COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE THOUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE A
MORE RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY OVER OUR REGION AS WEAK SYSTEMS RIDE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THIS PUSH OF COOL AIR FOR NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS
SHOWN BY BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR
LATE JULY AND MAY AGAIN RESULT IN NEAR RECORD OR RECORD COOL
TEMPERATURES.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KMKL AREA AND MAY LOWER VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR LEVELS OVERNIGHT. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 220319 AAC
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1019 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. MADE A
FEW TWEAKS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH AL
WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT CAUSING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST
TN. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TN INTO NORTH MS.

ALSO...ADDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR
FOR IT POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
FINE MID-SUMMER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE TYPICAL JULY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOR OUR AREA...OTHERWISE NEXT FOCUS IS ON
COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE THOUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE A
MORE RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY OVER OUR REGION AS WEAK SYSTEMS RIDE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THIS PUSH OF COOL AIR FOR NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS
SHOWN BY BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR
LATE JULY AND MAY AGAIN RESULT IN NEAR RECORD OR RECORD COOL
TEMPERATURES.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMEG 220319 AAC
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1019 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. MADE A
FEW TWEAKS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH AL
WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT CAUSING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST
TN. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TN INTO NORTH MS.

ALSO...ADDED PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR
FOR IT POSSIBLY BECOMING DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
FINE MID-SUMMER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE TYPICAL JULY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOR OUR AREA...OTHERWISE NEXT FOCUS IS ON
COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE THOUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE A
MORE RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY OVER OUR REGION AS WEAK SYSTEMS RIDE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THIS PUSH OF COOL AIR FOR NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS
SHOWN BY BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR
LATE JULY AND MAY AGAIN RESULT IN NEAR RECORD OR RECORD COOL
TEMPERATURES.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$













000
FXUS64 KMEG 220222 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
922 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. MADE A
FEW TWEAKS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH AL
WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT CAUSING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST
TN. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TN INTO NORTH MS.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
FINE MID-SUMMER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE TYPICAL JULY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOR OUR AREA...OTHERWISE NEXT FOCUS IS ON
COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE THOUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE A
MORE RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY OVER OUR REGION AS WEAK SYSTEMS RIDE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THIS PUSH OF COOL AIR FOR NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS
SHOWN BY BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR
LATE JULY AND MAY AGAIN RESULT IN NEAR RECORD OR RECORD COOL
TEMPERATURES.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 220222 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
922 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED GRIDS AND ZONE FORECASTS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT. MADE A
FEW TWEAKS IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. SKIES ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...BUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH AL
WILL RETROGRADE SLOWLY WESTWARD TONIGHT CAUSING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST
TN. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER FOR TONIGHT ACCORDINGLY. AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES FURTHER WESTWARD ALONG WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
MOISTURE...THIS WILL LEAD TO THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TN INTO NORTH MS.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
FINE MID-SUMMER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE TYPICAL JULY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOR OUR AREA...OTHERWISE NEXT FOCUS IS ON
COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE THOUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE A
MORE RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY OVER OUR REGION AS WEAK SYSTEMS RIDE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THIS PUSH OF COOL AIR FOR NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS
SHOWN BY BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR
LATE JULY AND MAY AGAIN RESULT IN NEAR RECORD OR RECORD COOL
TEMPERATURES.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 212334
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
FINE MID-SUMMER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE TYPICAL JULY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOR OUR AREA...OTHERWISE NEXT FOCUS IS ON
COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE THOUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE A
MORE RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY OVER OUR REGION AS WEAK SYSTEMS RIDE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THIS PUSH OF COOL AIR FOR NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS
SHOWN BY BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR
LATE JULY AND MAY AGAIN RESULT IN NEAR RECORD OR RECORD COOL
TEMPERATURES.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 212334
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
FINE MID-SUMMER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE TYPICAL JULY.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOR OUR AREA...OTHERWISE NEXT FOCUS IS ON
COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE THOUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE A
MORE RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY OVER OUR REGION AS WEAK SYSTEMS RIDE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THIS PUSH OF COOL AIR FOR NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS
SHOWN BY BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR
LATE JULY AND MAY AGAIN RESULT IN NEAR RECORD OR RECORD COOL
TEMPERATURES.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN
AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD
REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 212042
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
342 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FINE MID-SUMMER WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY LEVELS A BIT
LOWER THAN THE TYPICAL JULY.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... WEAK UPPER LOW MOVING WEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MAY CAUSE SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY FOR OUR AREA...OTHERWISE NEXT FOCUS IS ON
COLD FRONT WHICH APPROACHES THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE THOUGH THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. AIRMASS WILL BE BRIEF BEFORE A
MORE RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THOUGHT MONDAY)...
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY OVER OUR REGION AS WEAK SYSTEMS RIDE ALONG THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THIS PUSH OF COOL AIR FOR NEXT WEEK...WHICH IS
SHOWN BY BOTH THE 00Z ECMWF AND 12Z GFS IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE FOR
LATE JULY AND MAY AGAIN RESULT IN NEAR RECORD OR RECORD COOL
TEMPERATURES.

BELLES

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. PATCHY
FOG MAY REDEVELOP AT KMKL AFTER 22/09Z. PLACED A VCSH AT KTUP AFT
22/15Z AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RETROGRADES WEST
INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 211729
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THE
SATELLITE IS PICKING UP A THIN CLOUD OR HAZE LAYER OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-SOUTH AND CUMULUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS WELL.

 BELLES

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

PREDOMINATELY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO SEASONAL
VALUES FOR LATE JULY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. NORTHEAST MS MAY SEE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROF...PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL EXPERIENCE RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FALL BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL HELP DISPLACE SOUTHWEST U.S.
UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEST...WHICH WILL LOOSEN ITS ALREADY MARGINAL
INFLUENCE ON THE MIDSOUTH. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
MIDSOUTH...BRINGING THE NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL MS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THURSDAY/S
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE GREATEST SOUTH OF I40...WHERE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL POSITION COINCIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND EASTWARD
INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU ON FRIDAY...BEFORE BEING DISPLACED WESTWARD
BY DEEPENING HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY.
ECMWF AND GFS POINT TOWARD A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER...GFS MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS
APPEAR TO EXHIBIT A WARM BIAS BEYOND DAY 2. HAVE UNDERCUT MEX MOS
DAYTIME TEMPS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES.

THE EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIODS WILL SEE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF
DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF THE U.S...POINTING TOWARD WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF JULY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. PATCHY
FOG MAY REDEVELOP AT KMKL AFTER 22/09Z. PLACED A VCSH AT KTUP AFT
22/15Z AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RETROGRADES WEST
INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 211729
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1229 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THE
SATELLITE IS PICKING UP A THIN CLOUD OR HAZE LAYER OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-SOUTH AND CUMULUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS WELL.

 BELLES

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

PREDOMINATELY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO SEASONAL
VALUES FOR LATE JULY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. NORTHEAST MS MAY SEE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROF...PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL EXPERIENCE RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FALL BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL HELP DISPLACE SOUTHWEST U.S.
UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEST...WHICH WILL LOOSEN ITS ALREADY MARGINAL
INFLUENCE ON THE MIDSOUTH. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
MIDSOUTH...BRINGING THE NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL MS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THURSDAY/S
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE GREATEST SOUTH OF I40...WHERE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL POSITION COINCIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND EASTWARD
INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU ON FRIDAY...BEFORE BEING DISPLACED WESTWARD
BY DEEPENING HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY.
ECMWF AND GFS POINT TOWARD A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER...GFS MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS
APPEAR TO EXHIBIT A WARM BIAS BEYOND DAY 2. HAVE UNDERCUT MEX MOS
DAYTIME TEMPS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES.

THE EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIODS WILL SEE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF
DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF THE U.S...POINTING TOWARD WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF JULY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. PATCHY
FOG MAY REDEVELOP AT KMKL AFTER 22/09Z. PLACED A VCSH AT KTUP AFT
22/15Z AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. RETROGRADES WEST
INTO THE AREA. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 211616
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1116 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THE
SATELLITE IS PICKING UP A THIN CLOUD OR HAZE LAYER OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-SOUTH AND CUMULUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS WELL.

 BELLES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

PREDOMINATELY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO SEASONAL
VALUES FOR LATE JULY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. NORTHEAST MS MAY SEE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROF...PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL EXPERIENCE RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FALL BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL HELP DISPLACE SOUTHWEST U.S.
UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEST...WHICH WILL LOOSEN ITS ALREADY MARGINAL
INFLUENCE ON THE MIDSOUTH. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
MIDSOUTH...BRINGING THE NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL MS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THURSDAY/S
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE GREATEST SOUTH OF I40...WHERE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL POSITION COINCIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND EASTWARD
INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU ON FRIDAY...BEFORE BEING DISPLACED WESTWARD
BY DEEPENING HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY.
ECMWF AND GFS POINT TOWARD A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER...GFS MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS
APPEAR TO EXHIBIT A WARM BIAS BEYOND DAY 2. HAVE UNDERCUT MEX MOS
DAYTIME TEMPS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES.

THE EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIODS WILL SEE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF
DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF THE U.S...POINTING TOWARD WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF JULY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET

MORNING FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR. SOME FOG MAY REDEVELOP AT KMKL AFTER 9Z.
OTHERWISE...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA OCCURRING NEAR KTUP THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
TAFS. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 211616
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1116 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED TO SLIGHTLY INCREASE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THE
SATELLITE IS PICKING UP A THIN CLOUD OR HAZE LAYER OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-SOUTH AND CUMULUS IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AS WELL.

 BELLES

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 602 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

PREDOMINATELY DRY AND WARMER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MIDSOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO SEASONAL
VALUES FOR LATE JULY. THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF NEAR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. NORTHEAST MS MAY SEE A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROF...PARTICULARLY ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THE NORTHEAST U.S. WILL EXPERIENCE RATHER PRONOUNCED UPPER LEVEL
HEIGHT FALL BY MIDWEEK. THIS WILL HELP DISPLACE SOUTHWEST U.S.
UPPER RIDGE SLIGHTLY WEST...WHICH WILL LOOSEN ITS ALREADY MARGINAL
INFLUENCE ON THE MIDSOUTH. BY LATE WEDNESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
MIDSOUTH...BRINGING THE NEXT APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAIN. THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY WASH OUT OVER CENTRAL MS BY THURSDAY EVENING. THURSDAY/S
RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE GREATEST SOUTH OF I40...WHERE DAYTIME
INSTABILITY AND FRONTAL POSITION COINCIDE.

THE SOUTHWEST U.S. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXPAND EASTWARD
INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU ON FRIDAY...BEFORE BEING DISPLACED WESTWARD
BY DEEPENING HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY.
ECMWF AND GFS POINT TOWARD A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND
ENHANCED RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER...GFS MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS
APPEAR TO EXHIBIT A WARM BIAS BEYOND DAY 2. HAVE UNDERCUT MEX MOS
DAYTIME TEMPS BY 1 TO 3 DEGREES.

THE EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIODS WILL SEE A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROF
DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF THE U.S...POINTING TOWARD WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS OVER THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS OF JULY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET

MORNING FOG WILL LIFT BY 13Z. THEREAFTER...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS
TO OCCUR. SOME FOG MAY REDEVELOP AT KMKL AFTER 9Z.
OTHERWISE...CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA OCCURRING NEAR KTUP THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN
TAFS. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









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