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000
FXUS64 KMEG 020218 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED AT MIDEVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL AR AND
NORTH MS. THESE SHOWERS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW
PRESSURE TROF MAINLY BELOW 500MB...CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LA.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
WERE SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING AT MIDEVENING...AND REDUCED BUT NOT
ELIMINATED CLOUD COVER NORTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. AS MENTIONED IN
THE AVIATION SECTION EARLIER... SOME FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT...
PARTICULARLY EAST AND NORTH OF MEMPHIS. VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN
ABOVE A MILE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE
LATE EVENING.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT 500MB ANALYSIS EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING COOLER THAN
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
ON SATURDAY. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AND AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...THUS WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID TEMPERATURES IN REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
BUILD SLIGHTLY. BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PUMPING WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE 24 HR TAF
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES
WHILE CIGS REMAIN WELL INTO VFR RANGE. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
KMKL..KTUP... AND KJBR CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO FROM TO MVFR LEVELS.
ADDED VCSH THROUGH 4Z AT KMEM AND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KTUP
WHERE THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 012336
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT 500MB ANALYSIS EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING COOLER THAN
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
ON SATURDAY. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AND AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...THUS WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID TEMPERATURES IN REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
BUILD SLIGHTLY. BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PUMPING WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ZDM

.AVIATION...

VFR AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE 24 HR TAF
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES
WHILE CIGS REMAIN WELL INTO VFR RANGE. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
KMKL..KTUP... AND KJBR CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO FROM TO MVFR LEVELS.
ADDED VCSH THROUGH 4Z AT KMEM AND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KTUP
WHERE THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 012336
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENT 500MB ANALYSIS EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING COOLER THAN
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
ON SATURDAY. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AND AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...THUS WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID TEMPERATURES IN REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
BUILD SLIGHTLY. BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PUMPING WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ZDM

.AVIATION...

VFR AND POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE 24 HR TAF
PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES
WHILE CIGS REMAIN WELL INTO VFR RANGE. FOG MAY DEVELOP AT
KMKL..KTUP... AND KJBR CAUSING VISIBILITIES TO FROM TO MVFR LEVELS.
ADDED VCSH THROUGH 4Z AT KMEM AND THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AT KTUP
WHERE THE HRRR MODEL SUGGESTS REDEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 012035
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT 500MB ANALYSIS EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING COOLER THAN
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
ON SATURDAY. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AND AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...THUS WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID TEMPERATURES IN REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
BUILD SLIGHTLY. BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PUMPING WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SCATTERED AT BEST. REMOVED VCSH DUE
TO LACK OF DEVELOPMENT ON RADAR. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON POP-UP
THUNDERSHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
MINIMAL...WILL COVER ANY DEVELOPMENT IN AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST. PATCHY 4-5SM FOG IS
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 012035
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT 500MB ANALYSIS EXTENDS A TROUGH AXIS FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING COOLER THAN
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES THAT
WILL LAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE THIS EVENING...AND WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
ON SATURDAY. THE WEAK TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EAST BY LATE IN
THE WEEKEND...AND AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WILL TRY TO BUILD IN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SET UP JUST TO THE NORTH OF OUR
REGION...THUS WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL AID TEMPERATURES IN REMAINING NEAR
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST WEEK IN AUGUST...WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY
LEVELS IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION. IN
ADDITION...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS
BUILD SLIGHTLY. BY THURSDAY THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND GIVE WAY TO A DEVELOPING LOW IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH...PUMPING WARM
MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK...THUS
HAVE INCLUDED THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SCATTERED AT BEST. REMOVED VCSH DUE
TO LACK OF DEVELOPMENT ON RADAR. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON POP-UP
THUNDERSHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
MINIMAL...WILL COVER ANY DEVELOPMENT IN AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST. PATCHY 4-5SM FOG IS
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 011717
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

UPDATE...

CURRENT GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER DECREASING OVER
THE AREA...PRIMARILY OVER WEST TN AND NORTHERN MS. THE LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED...WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER WEST TENNESSEE INDICATING DRIER AIR AT
THE SURFACE. SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH INSTABILITY OVER WEST TN AND EASTERN AR...AND
THUS HAVE SCALED BACK THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT IN THOSE
AREAS. STILL THINK NORTHERN MS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOSS OF
CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL AID IN INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN
SCALING BACK THE CLOUD COVER AND THUNDER CHANCES...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

ZDM

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

CURRENTLY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. WEAK
OVERRUNNING WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE
CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN PARIS TO THE LOWER 70S IN
MEMPHIS.

TODAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WHILE THE BROAD UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-40 TODAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE REALIZED IF SOME SUN CAN
BREAK OUT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAIL OFF AS THE
UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES ALONG THE
GULF COAST. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S THANKS TO SOME MORE SUN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP TO IGNITE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THAT DISTURBANCE THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL TRY TO NOSE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN DRIER
NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR MASS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
START ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A RETURN TO A MORE
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SJM

&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SCATTERED AT BEST. REMOVED VCSH DUE
TO LACK OF DEVELOPMENT ON RADAR. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON POP-UP
THUNDERSHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
MINIMAL...WILL COVER ANY DEVELOPMENT IN AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST. PATCHY 4-5SM FOG IS
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 011717
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 PM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

UPDATE...

CURRENT GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER DECREASING OVER
THE AREA...PRIMARILY OVER WEST TN AND NORTHERN MS. THE LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED...WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER WEST TENNESSEE INDICATING DRIER AIR AT
THE SURFACE. SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH INSTABILITY OVER WEST TN AND EASTERN AR...AND
THUS HAVE SCALED BACK THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT IN THOSE
AREAS. STILL THINK NORTHERN MS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOSS OF
CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL AID IN INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN
SCALING BACK THE CLOUD COVER AND THUNDER CHANCES...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

ZDM

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

CURRENTLY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. WEAK
OVERRUNNING WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE
CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN PARIS TO THE LOWER 70S IN
MEMPHIS.

TODAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WHILE THE BROAD UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-40 TODAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE REALIZED IF SOME SUN CAN
BREAK OUT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAIL OFF AS THE
UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES ALONG THE
GULF COAST. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S THANKS TO SOME MORE SUN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP TO IGNITE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THAT DISTURBANCE THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL TRY TO NOSE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN DRIER
NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR MASS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
START ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A RETURN TO A MORE
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SJM

&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED SCATTERED AT BEST. REMOVED VCSH DUE
TO LACK OF DEVELOPMENT ON RADAR. AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON POP-UP
THUNDERSHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE
MINIMAL...WILL COVER ANY DEVELOPMENT IN AMENDMENTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST TO NORTHEAST. PATCHY 4-5SM FOG IS
POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 011535
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1035 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENT GOES SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD COVER DECREASING OVER
THE AREA...PRIMARILY OVER WEST TN AND NORTHERN MS. THE LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS MORNING HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED...WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OVER WEST TENNESSEE INDICATING DRIER AIR AT
THE SURFACE. SHOWER AND SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH CURRENT MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT
TOO OPTIMISTIC WITH INSTABILITY OVER WEST TN AND EASTERN AR...AND
THUS HAVE SCALED BACK THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES A BIT IN THOSE
AREAS. STILL THINK NORTHERN MS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AS THE LOSS OF
CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL AID IN INSTABILITY POTENTIAL. OTHER THAN
SCALING BACK THE CLOUD COVER AND THUNDER CHANCES...THE FORECAST
LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

ZDM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

CURRENTLY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. WEAK
OVERRUNNING WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE
CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN PARIS TO THE LOWER 70S IN
MEMPHIS.

TODAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WHILE THE BROAD UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-40 TODAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE REALIZED IF SOME SUN CAN
BREAK OUT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAIL OFF AS THE
UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES ALONG THE
GULF COAST. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S THANKS TO SOME MORE SUN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP TO IGNITE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THAT DISTURBANCE THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL TRY TO NOSE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN DRIER
NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR MASS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
START ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A RETURN TO A MORE
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUP WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON STATION. A FEW AFTERNOON POP-UP
THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THEY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED
FOR A TAF MENTION. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 011126
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. WEAK
OVERRUNNING WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE
CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN PARIS TO THE LOWER 70S IN
MEMPHIS.

TODAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WHILE THE BROAD UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-40 TODAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE REALIZED IF SOME SUN CAN
BREAK OUT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAIL OFF AS THE
UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES ALONG THE
GULF COAST. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S THANKS TO SOME MORE SUN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP TO IGNITE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THAT DISTURBANCE THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL TRY TO NOSE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN DRIER
NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR MASS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
START ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A RETURN TO A MORE
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUP WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON STATION. A FEW AFTERNOON POP-UP
THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THEY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED
FOR A TAF MENTION. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 011126
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. WEAK
OVERRUNNING WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE
CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN PARIS TO THE LOWER 70S IN
MEMPHIS.

TODAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WHILE THE BROAD UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-40 TODAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE REALIZED IF SOME SUN CAN
BREAK OUT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAIL OFF AS THE
UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES ALONG THE
GULF COAST. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S THANKS TO SOME MORE SUN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP TO IGNITE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THAT DISTURBANCE THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL TRY TO NOSE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN DRIER
NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR MASS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
START ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A RETURN TO A MORE
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THIS PERIOD WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUP WILL HAVE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ON STATION. A FEW AFTERNOON POP-UP
THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THEY WILL BE TOO ISOLATED
FOR A TAF MENTION. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHEAST.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 010759
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
259 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. WEAK
OVERRUNNING WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE
CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN PARIS TO THE LOWER 70S IN
MEMPHIS.

TODAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WHILE THE BROAD UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-40 TODAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE REALIZED IF SOME SUN CAN
BREAK OUT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAIL OFF AS THE
UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES ALONG THE
GULF COAST. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S THANKS TO SOME MORE SUN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP TO IGNITE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THAT DISTURBANCE THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL TRY TO NOSE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN DRIER
NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR MASS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
START ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A RETURN TO A MORE
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SPRINKLES AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR KJBR
AND KMEM. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF ANY.
OVERNIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP AT JBR...MKL..AND TUP...BUT MOST
LIKELY AT JBR. VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY
TOMORROW. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 010759
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
259 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF COVERS THE EASTERN U.S. WHILE
A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. WEAK
OVERRUNNING WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. ELSEWHERE SKIES ARE
CLOUDY. TEMPS RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN PARIS TO THE LOWER 70S IN
MEMPHIS.

TODAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST WHILE THE BROAD UPPER TROF WILL PERSIST.
EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 80S. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-40 TODAY
WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE NORTH. MODELS ARE SHOWING A LITTLE MORE
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH MAY BE REALIZED IF SOME SUN CAN
BREAK OUT. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO TAIL OFF AS THE
UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST AND THE SURFACE LOW DISSIPATES ALONG THE
GULF COAST. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 80S THANKS TO SOME MORE SUN.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HELP TO IGNITE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BEHIND
THAT DISTURBANCE THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST WILL TRY TO NOSE IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY RESULTING IN DRIER
NORTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER
THAN NORMAL THANKS TO THE DRIER AIR MASS.

THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST AND LOW PRESSURE WILL
START ORGANIZING OVER THE PLAINS RESULTING IN A RETURN TO A MORE
HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SPRINKLES AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR KJBR
AND KMEM. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF ANY.
OVERNIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP AT JBR...MKL..AND TUP...BUT MOST
LIKELY AT JBR. VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY
TOMORROW. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 010437
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1137 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATEST. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLIER TODAY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-40. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT/FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BY THIS
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LATEST 12Z LONG TERM
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOMEWHAT EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

CJC

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SPRINKLES AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR KJBR
AND KMEM. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF ANY.
OVERNIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP AT JBR...MKL..AND TUP...BUT MOST
LIKELY AT JBR. VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY
TOMORROW. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 010437
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1137 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 935 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

UPDATE...

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATEST. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLIER TODAY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-40. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT/FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BY THIS
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LATEST 12Z LONG TERM
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOMEWHAT EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

CJC

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SPRINKLES AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR KJBR
AND KMEM. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE MINIMAL IF ANY.
OVERNIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP AT JBR...MKL..AND TUP...BUT MOST
LIKELY AT JBR. VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE TO MVFR. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WIND DIRECTION WILL VARY
TOMORROW. CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN TAFS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 010235
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
935 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATEST. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLIER TODAY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-40. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT/FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BY THIS
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LATEST 12Z LONG TERM
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOMEWHAT EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

CJC

&&

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SPRINKLES AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IF ANY. OVERNIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT
MOST LIKELY AT JBR. VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 5KTS FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW. CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN TAFS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 010235
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
935 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH TONIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
AREA WHERE MOISTURE IS GREATEST. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM NEAR 60 DEGREES IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 60S ACROSS
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THE
SITUATION AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLIER TODAY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-40. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT/FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BY THIS
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LATEST 12Z LONG TERM
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOMEWHAT EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

CJC

&&

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SPRINKLES AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IF ANY. OVERNIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT
MOST LIKELY AT JBR. VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 5KTS FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW. CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN TAFS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 312329
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLIER TODAY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-40. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT/FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BY THIS
WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LATEST 12Z LONG TERM
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOMEWHAT EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

CJC

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SPRINKLES AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND
INTO THE EARLY NIGHT HOURS. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL IF ANY. OVERNIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ALL TAF SITES...BUT
MOST LIKELY AT JBR. VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE TO MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR
LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR.
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 5KTS FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW. CHANCES
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MENTION IN TAFS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 312026
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
326 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLIER TODAY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-40. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT/FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BY THIS
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LATEST 12Z LONG TERM
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOMEWHAT EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SPRINKLES AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.
THE SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL IF ANY. OVERNIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ALL TAF
SITES...BUT MOST LIKELY AT JBR. VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE TO
MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 312026
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
326 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EARLIER TODAY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE 70S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES REMAIN THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MOSTLY SOUTH OF I-40. NOT MUCH CHANGE
IS EXPECTED IN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
UNITED STATES. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT/FRIDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TONIGHT AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.
A GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
GRADUALLY APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES BY THIS
WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LATEST 12Z LONG TERM
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOMEWHAT EAST OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS
RETURNING TO THE LOWER 90S AND DECREASING RAIN CHANCES EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
INCREASES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND ANOTHER FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SPRINKLES AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.
THE SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL IF ANY. OVERNIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ALL TAF
SITES...BUT MOST LIKELY AT JBR. VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE TO
MVFR...POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 311734
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS
INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME LIGHT RETURNS THE ONLY RAIN OCCURRING
AT JBR CURRENTLY.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS LOWER
RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT BUT KEEP BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL ALSO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO ANY OTHER
ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS AR AND MS TODAY WHILE
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRATIFORM LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TAPERING OFF TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NW. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUN. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR JULY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIP AGAIN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL WARM SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SPRINKLES AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.
THE SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL IF ANY. OVERNIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ALL TAF
SITES...BUT MOST LIKELY AT JBR. VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE TO
MVRF...POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 311734
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS
INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME LIGHT RETURNS THE ONLY RAIN OCCURRING
AT JBR CURRENTLY.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS LOWER
RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT BUT KEEP BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL ALSO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO ANY OTHER
ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS AR AND MS TODAY WHILE
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRATIFORM LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TAPERING OFF TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO THE
NW. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACROSS
THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUN. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR JULY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIP AGAIN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL WARM SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP AT
LEAST SPRINKLES AROUND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY.
THE SHOULD TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD
BE MINIMAL IF ANY. OVERNIGHT...FOG MAY DEVELOP AT ALL TAF
SITES...BUT MOST LIKELY AT JBR. VISIBILITY MAY DECREASE TO
MVRF...POSSIBLY IFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 311527
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1027 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS
INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME LIGHT RETURNS THE ONLY RAIN OCCURRING
AT JBR CURRENTLY.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS LOWER
RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT BUT KEEP BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL ALSO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO ANY OTHER
ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS AR AND MS TODAY WHILE
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRATIFORM LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TAPERING OFF TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NW. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUN. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR JULY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIP AGAIN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL WARM SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS KJBR AND KMEM THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDS. OTRW EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AT KMKL...KJBR AND KTUP.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 311527
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1027 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
NORTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE...12Z UPPER AIR PLOTS
INDICATE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE UNITED STATES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. KNQA/KGWX WSR-88D
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE SOME LIGHT RETURNS THE ONLY RAIN OCCURRING
AT JBR CURRENTLY.

THE SURFACE LOW WILL GRADUALLY MOVE FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TODAY. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS LOWER
RAIN CHANCES SOMEWHAT BUT KEEP BEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. WILL ALSO MAKE ADJUSTMENTS TO ANY OTHER
ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS AR AND MS TODAY WHILE
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRATIFORM LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TAPERING OFF TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NW. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUN. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR JULY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIP AGAIN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL WARM SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS KJBR AND KMEM THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDS. OTRW EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AT KMKL...KJBR AND KTUP.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 311154
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
654 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS AR AND MS TODAY WHILE
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRATIFORM LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TAPERING OFF TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NW. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUN. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR JULY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIP AGAIN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL WARM SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS KJBR AND KMEM THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDS. OTRW EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AT KMKL...KJBR AND KTUP.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 311154
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
654 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS AR AND MS TODAY WHILE
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRATIFORM LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TAPERING OFF TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NW. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUN. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR JULY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIP AGAIN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL WARM SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS KJBR AND KMEM THIS
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDS. OTRW EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATER
TONIGHT AT KMKL...KJBR AND KTUP.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMEG 310914
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
414 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS AR AND MS TODAY WHILE
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRATIFORM LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TAPERING OFF TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NW. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUN. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR JULY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIP AGAIN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL WARM SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR
TAF CYCLE. A CLOUD DECK AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD FURTHER
WEST. ADDED VCSH AT KJBR AND KMEM THROUGH MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
BR AT KJBR AND KMKL COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO 5SM
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LEVELS FOR ALL SITES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 310914
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
414 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS AR AND MS TODAY WHILE
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW TRACKS EASTWARD JUST SOUTH OF THE
SHORTWAVE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. STRATIFORM LIGHT
RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINATE WEATHER WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE SW
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA TAPERING OFF TO PATCHY LIGHT RAIN TO
THE NW. WEAK INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...DEPENDING IF THERE IS ENOUGH SUN. OTHERWISE...TODAY
WILL BE CLOUDY AND UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR JULY.

THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SO
THE MAIN CHANCE OF RAIN WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. A
SLIGHT DECREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL ALLOW FOR
MORE CONVECTIVE TYPE OF PRECIP AGAIN. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL
REMAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
DURING THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE OUT WEST WILL EXTEND INTO THE AREA BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO DRIER AND MORE TYPICAL WARM SUMMERLIKE CONDITIONS WILL
RETURN WITH HIGHS ABOVE 90 DEGREES.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR
TAF CYCLE. A CLOUD DECK AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD FURTHER
WEST. ADDED VCSH AT KJBR AND KMEM THROUGH MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
BR AT KJBR AND KMKL COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO 5SM
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LEVELS FOR ALL SITES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 310502
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1202 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATES TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND
RAISE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WEST.

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SPREAD MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 THIS EVENING IN AREAS WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS MOISTENED SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH MILD OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE.
FURTHER EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...DRY AIR MASS WILL HAMPER RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THEREFORE ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES SHOULD EXIST OVERNIGHT. THE
FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

JULY 2014 WILL END WITH AN ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE MONTH. UNSEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF AUGUST.

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF AR AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE BUT
THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE RAIN IS HAVING TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR OVER
EAST AR. LIGHTNING IS NOT BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ONCE AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER OK WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
INTO LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE ALMOST NIL AND NOT OBSERVING ANY
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING PRECIP...DECIDED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MOVING THROUGH NORTH MS. MODELS DO INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE
WEAKENING SOME. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN AND MUCH OF
NORTH MS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN CAUSING THE
MONTH OF JULY TO END WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
70S TO LOWER 80S...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MENTIONED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
CLOUDS THIN. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EAST TX INTO NORTH LA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR ACROSS NORTH MS WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS SUNDAY BUT
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL MOISTURE AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH.

JCL

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR
TAF CYCLE. A CLOUD DECK AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD FURTHER
WEST. ADDED VCSH AT KJBR AND KMEM THROUGH MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
BR AT KJBR AND KMKL COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO 5SM
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LEVELS FOR ALL SITES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 310502
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1202 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATES TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND
RAISE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WEST.

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SPREAD MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 THIS EVENING IN AREAS WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS MOISTENED SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH MILD OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE.
FURTHER EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...DRY AIR MASS WILL HAMPER RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THEREFORE ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES SHOULD EXIST OVERNIGHT. THE
FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

JULY 2014 WILL END WITH AN ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE MONTH. UNSEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF AUGUST.

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF AR AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE BUT
THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE RAIN IS HAVING TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR OVER
EAST AR. LIGHTNING IS NOT BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ONCE AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER OK WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
INTO LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE ALMOST NIL AND NOT OBSERVING ANY
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING PRECIP...DECIDED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MOVING THROUGH NORTH MS. MODELS DO INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE
WEAKENING SOME. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN AND MUCH OF
NORTH MS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN CAUSING THE
MONTH OF JULY TO END WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
70S TO LOWER 80S...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MENTIONED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
CLOUDS THIN. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EAST TX INTO NORTH LA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR ACROSS NORTH MS WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS SUNDAY BUT
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL MOISTURE AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH.

JCL

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR
TAF CYCLE. A CLOUD DECK AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGUN TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD FURTHER
WEST. ADDED VCSH AT KJBR AND KMEM THROUGH MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
BR AT KJBR AND KMKL COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO 5SM
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE VFR LEVELS FOR ALL SITES. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 310255
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
955 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATES TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND
RAISE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SPREAD MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 THIS EVENING IN AREAS WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS MOISTENED SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH MILD OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE.
FURTHER EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...DRY AIRMASS WILL HAMPER RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THEREFORE ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES SHOULD EXIST OVERNIGHT. THE
FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

JULY 2014 WILL END WITH AN ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE MONTH. UNSEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF AUGUST.

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF AR AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE BUT
THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE RAIN IS HAVING TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR OVER
EAST AR. LIGHTNING IS NOT BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ONCE AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER OK WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
INTO LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE ALMOST NIL AND NOT OBSERVING ANY
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING PRECIP...DECIDED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MOVING THROUGH NORTH MS. MODELS DO INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE
WEAKENING SOME. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN AND MUCH OF
NORTH MS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN CAUSING THE
MONTH OF JULY TO END WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
70S TO LOWER 80S...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MENTIONED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
CLOUDS THIN. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EAST TX INTO NORTH LA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR ACROSS NORTH MS WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS SUNDAY BUT
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL MOISTURE AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR
TAF CYCLE. A CLOUD DECK AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGAN TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD FURTHER
WEST. ADDED VCSH AT KJBR AT 00Z AND KMEM AT 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BR AT KJBR AND KMKL COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO 5SM
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 3K FEET FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 310255
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
955 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...

MINOR UPDATES TO LOWER POPS SLIGHTLY EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 AND
RAISE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO SPREAD MAINLY LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 55 THIS EVENING IN AREAS WHERE THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS MOISTENED SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT PRECIPITATION.
THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG WITH MILD OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND INCREASED MOISTURE.
FURTHER EAST OF INTERSTATE 55...DRY AIRMASS WILL HAMPER RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...THEREFORE ONLY SMALL CHANCES
FOR SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES SHOULD EXIST OVERNIGHT. THE
FORECAST OVERALL LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE
NEEDED.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

JULY 2014 WILL END WITH AN ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE MONTH. UNSEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF AUGUST.

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF AR AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE BUT
THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE RAIN IS HAVING TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR OVER
EAST AR. LIGHTNING IS NOT BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ONCE AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER OK WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
INTO LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE ALMOST NIL AND NOT OBSERVING ANY
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING PRECIP...DECIDED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MOVING THROUGH NORTH MS. MODELS DO INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE
WEAKENING SOME. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN AND MUCH OF
NORTH MS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN CAUSING THE
MONTH OF JULY TO END WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
70S TO LOWER 80S...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MENTIONED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
CLOUDS THIN. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EAST TX INTO NORTH LA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR ACROSS NORTH MS WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS SUNDAY BUT
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL MOISTURE AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR
TAF CYCLE. A CLOUD DECK AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGAN TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD FURTHER
WEST. ADDED VCSH AT KJBR AT 00Z AND KMEM AT 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BR AT KJBR AND KMKL COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO 5SM
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 3K FEET FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 302359
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

JULY 2014 WILL END WITH AN ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE MONTH. UNSEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF AUGUST.

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF AR AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE BUT
THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE RAIN IS HAVING TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR OVER
EAST AR. LIGHTNING IS NOT BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ONCE AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER OK WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
INTO LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE ALMOST NIL AND NOT OBSERVING ANY
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING PRECIP...DECIDED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MOVING THROUGH NORTH MS. MODELS DO INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE
WEAKENING SOME. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN AND MUCH OF
NORTH MS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN CAUSING THE
MONTH OF JULY TO END WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
70S TO LOWER 80S...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MENTIONED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
CLOUDS THIN. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EAST TX INTO NORTH LA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR ACROSS NORTH MS WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS SUNDAY BUT
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL MOISTURE AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH.

JCL

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR
TAF CYCLE. A CLOUD DECK AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGAN TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD FURTHER
WEST. ADDED VCSH AT KJBR AT 00Z AND KMEM AT 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BR AT KJBR AND KMKL COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO 5SM
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 3K FEET FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 302359
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

JULY 2014 WILL END WITH AN ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE MONTH. UNSEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF AUGUST.

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF AR AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE BUT
THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE RAIN IS HAVING TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR OVER
EAST AR. LIGHTNING IS NOT BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ONCE AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER OK WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
INTO LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE ALMOST NIL AND NOT OBSERVING ANY
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING PRECIP...DECIDED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MOVING THROUGH NORTH MS. MODELS DO INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE
WEAKENING SOME. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN AND MUCH OF
NORTH MS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN CAUSING THE
MONTH OF JULY TO END WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
70S TO LOWER 80S...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MENTIONED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
CLOUDS THIN. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EAST TX INTO NORTH LA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR ACROSS NORTH MS WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS SUNDAY BUT
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL MOISTURE AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH.

JCL

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND POSSIBLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24 HR
TAF CYCLE. A CLOUD DECK AND RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS BEGAN TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR ALREADY IN PLACE OVER
THE REGION IS MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR SHOWERS TO SPREAD FURTHER
WEST. ADDED VCSH AT KJBR AT 00Z AND KMEM AT 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS. BR AT KJBR AND KMKL COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY TO DROP TO 5SM
OVERNIGHT. CIGS SHOULD STAY ABOVE 3K FEET FOR ALL SITES. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 302017
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
317 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

JULY 2014 WILL END WITH AN ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE MONTH. UNSEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF AUGUST.

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF AR AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE BUT
THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE RAIN IS HAVING TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR OVER
EAST AR. LIGHTNING IS NOT BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ONCE AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER OK WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
INTO LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE ALMOST NIL AND NOT OBSERVING ANY
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING PRECIP...DECIDED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MOVING THROUGH NORTH MS. MODELS DO INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE
WEAKENING SOME. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN AND MUCH OF
NORTH MS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN CAUSING THE
MONTH OF JULY TO END WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
70S TO LOWER 80S...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MENTIONED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
CLOUDS THIN. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EAST TX INTO NORTH LA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR ACROSS NORTH MS WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS SUNDAY BUT
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL MOISTURE AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

CLOUD SHEILD WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT`S WAY EASTWARD THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT..AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TOMORROW.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WIND DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SAK

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 302017
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
317 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

JULY 2014 WILL END WITH AN ABNORMAL WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR AS HAS OCCURRED MUCH OF THE MONTH. UNSEASONABLY MILD
WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE START OF AUGUST.

AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON WHILE A SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK. NUMEROUS SHOWERS WERE
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF AR AHEAD OF THIS SHORT WAVE BUT
THE FORWARD EDGE OF THE RAIN IS HAVING TO OVERCOME DRIER AIR OVER
EAST AR. LIGHTNING IS NOT BEING OBSERVED WITH THIS ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WERE ONCE AGAIN BELOW
NORMAL RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MIDDLE 80S.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER OK WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AR OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND LOWER OVER THE MIDSOUTH. SHOWERS TONIGHT WILL SPREAD
INTO LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHWEST MS. WITH
INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE ALMOST NIL AND NOT OBSERVING ANY
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACHING PRECIP...DECIDED TO
REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY MOVING THROUGH NORTH MS. MODELS DO INDICATE THE SHORT WAVE
WEAKENING SOME. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FROM
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST TN AND MUCH OF
NORTH MS. CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN CAUSING THE
MONTH OF JULY TO END WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE
70S TO LOWER 80S...BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MENTIONED
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN
AREAS AS SOME SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS
CLOUDS THIN. ON THURSDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EAST TX INTO NORTH LA. ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FROM EAST CENTRAL AR INTO PORTIONS OF NORTH MS.

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN BY FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE INTO A
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THIS PLACES THE MIDSOUTH IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FROM EAST CENTRAL
AR ACROSS NORTH MS WHERE THE GREATEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM A LITTLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING CLOSE TO NORMAL BY MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM THE WEST...ALTHOUGH STILL A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. A LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH MS SUNDAY BUT
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN IS EXPECTED MONDAY.

SEASONABLY WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A
SMALL CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO
NORTH MS AND EAST CENTRAL MOISTURE AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

CLOUD SHEILD WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT`S WAY EASTWARD THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT..AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TOMORROW.
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD. WIND DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

SAK

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 301802 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
101 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.CORRECTED FOR FORMATTING ISSUES..

.UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO OK
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT IN MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE MINIMUM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CHANGES WERE MINOR.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUD SHEILD WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT`S WAY EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT..AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TOMORROW. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

SAK

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMEG 301802 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
101 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.CORRECTED FOR FORMATTING ISSUES..

.UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO OK
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT IN MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE MINIMUM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CHANGES WERE MINOR.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

CLOUD SHEILD WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT`S WAY EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT..AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TOMORROW. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

SAK

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 301746
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION...


&&


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO OK
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT IN MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE MINIMUM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CHANGES WERE MINOR.

JCL

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

AVIATION...

CLOUD SHEILD WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT`S WAY EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT..AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TOMORROW. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

SAK

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 301746
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1246 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION...


&&


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO OK
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT IN MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE MINIMUM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CHANGES WERE MINOR.

JCL

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

AVIATION...

CLOUD SHEILD WILL SLOWLY MAKE IT`S WAY EASTWARD THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT..AFFECTING ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z TOMORROW. CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
WIND DIRECTIONS AT ALL SITES MAY BE VARIABLE AT TIMES THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT.

SAK

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 301438 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
938 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO OK
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT IN MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE MINIMUM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CHANGES WERE MINOR.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO KJBR AND
KMEM BY 31/12Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 301438 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
938 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE SMALL CHANGES TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ALONG THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING. A
SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WAS MOVING INTO OK.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE OCCURRING AHEAD OF
THIS SHORT WAVE ACROSS MUCH OF OK INTO WESTERN AR AND NORTHERN TX.
THIS SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD FURTHER INTO OK
TODAY. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND GRADUALLY LOWER FROM THE WEST
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
PORTIONS OF EAST AR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. LEFT IN MENTION OF
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS FORECAST
TO BE MINIMUM ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. ADJUSTED THE SKY COVER GRIDS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE CHANGES WERE MINOR.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO KJBR AND
KMEM BY 31/12Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 301150
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO KJBR AND
KMEM BY 31/12Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 301150
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE
MID 60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO KJBR AND
KMEM BY 31/12Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 300850
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE MID
60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS
&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 00Z THINKING. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT MKL IN
THE 30/08Z-30/12Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER EXPECTED.
PLACED VCSH AT JBR AS RAIN SKIRTS ACROSS THE OZARKS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT OR CALM WINDS INCREASING TO 5-8 KTS FROM EITHER THE
NORTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST DEPENDING ON SITE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 300850
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
350 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S TO THE MID
60S.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM
SOUTHWEST KANSAS INTO NORTHERN OKLAHOMA TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS
DISTURBANCE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
MAY ENTER FAR WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

TONIGHT THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND REACH SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE
DISTURBANCE GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TAKE A MORE EASTWARD
TURN MOVING INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY THURSDAY EVENING. THIS
WILL MAKE THURSDAY THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO ALABAMA
AND WEAKEN SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH.

SOME WEAKER DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP SOME BUT WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL. BY SUNDAY...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD
EAST TOWARD THE REGION. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER WITH
TEMPERATURES GETTING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

ARS
&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 00Z THINKING. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT MKL IN
THE 30/08Z-30/12Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER EXPECTED.
PLACED VCSH AT JBR AS RAIN SKIRTS ACROSS THE OZARKS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT OR CALM WINDS INCREASING TO 5-8 KTS FROM EITHER THE
NORTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST DEPENDING ON SITE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 300444
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO RAISE LOW TEMPERATURES FOR A FEW DEGREES.

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THE MID
SOUTH UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND ALSO ALLOW FOR UNSEASONABLY
COOL TEMPERATURES. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO SKIRT WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES TO THE
EAST. ALTHOUGH LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
AVERAGE TONIGHT...HAVE RAISED LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES TO
ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT AND ANTICIPATED TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NEEDED. FORECAST
UPDATES WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...COURTESY OF A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS LONGWAVE TROF WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT WITH
THE BREAKDOWN OF AN OMEGA BLOCK OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC
OCEAN.

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIG INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOWERING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS AND AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS. NAM
925MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED 1C TO 2C COOLER THAN TODAY. CLOUD COVER
AND COVERAGE OF RAIN WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON TEMPS. AT THIS
TIME...IT APPEARS THAT COVERAGE OF BOTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. THIS PATTERN IS NOT TOO
UNLIKE JULY 18...WHEN TEMPS STRUGGLED TO REACH 70. THERE IS SOME
BUST POTENTIAL FOR THURSDAY...ANY AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SUN WILL
BOOST TEMPS BY SEVERAL DEGREES. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY ALSO BE A BIT
COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...PARTICULARLY IF CLOUDS PERSIST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE MUCH OF THE SUMMER...GFS
MOS DAYTIME HIGHS APPEAR TO SHOW A WARM BIAS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE UPPER TROF LIFTS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST
AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENCROACHES FROM THE WEST. TEMPS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH SHOULD RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY AUGUST VALUES BY
AROUND THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM 00Z THINKING. MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE AT MKL IN
THE 30/08Z-30/12Z TIME FRAME. OTHERWISE...VFR WEATHER EXPECTED.
PLACED VCSH AT JBR AS RAIN SKIRTS ACROSS THE OZARKS LATE IN THE
PERIOD. LIGHT OR CALM WINDS INCREASING TO 5-8 KTS FROM EITHER THE
NORTHEAST OR SOUTHWEST DEPENDING ON SITE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








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