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000
FXUS64 KMEG 250003
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
703 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 222 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND
80 ON SATURDAY AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BUT WILL REMAIN LIMITED SO DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS AND MOISTURE
WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT THAT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER AIR WILL START MOVING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES BE AT OR SLIGHT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA TO END THE THREAT OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY NEXT FRIDAY
MAKING THINGS DRY AND COOL.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECT FOR SOME PATCHY FOG AT KMKL LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING WESTERLY 5-7
KTS BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 241922
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
222 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MID 70S.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S.
AND WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND
80 ON SATURDAY AND IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON SUNDAY.

BY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT
BUT WILL REMAIN LIMITED SO DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT.

BY TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER WESTERN ARKANSAS AND MOISTURE
WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT THAT SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE COOLER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT JUST SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. COOLER AIR WILL START MOVING INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE FRONT SO TEMPERATURES BE AT OR SLIGHT BELOW
NORMAL LEVELS.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM
THE FORECAST AREA TO END THE THREAT OF RAIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. BY NEXT FRIDAY
MAKING THINGS DRY AND COOL.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (24/18Z-25/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AT KMKL BETWEEN 25/08Z AND 25/12Z. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS AFTER 24/14Z WESTERLY 5-7 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 241723 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1223 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. A FEW CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT THIS
TIME SO THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE MID SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY BEEN
SLOWLY FALLING AS HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY PREVENTED SUBSTANTIAL
RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING
HOWEVER ENOUGH SHALLOW MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO KEEP DEWPOINTS
STEADY. AS TEMPERATURES FALL...POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY AS
WINDS ARE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...A GRADUAL WARMUP IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...RANGING TO THE MID 70S ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRY TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY WARM. SEVERAL PLUMES OF VERY
WARM 850 MB AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. USING LZK`S 850 MB CLIMATOLOGY...THE 19 C MARK
AT 850 MB REPRESENTS 2SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIDDLE TO LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 16 C AND 19 C DEPENDING ON LOCATION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SUPPORTS READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF EAST AR/WEST TN/NORTHERN MS TO
ACHIEVE READINGS A BIT HIGHER THAN THAT ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED STILL REMAINS ON THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
TRENDING SLOWER STILL WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GRADUALLY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
FROM NW TO SE ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. WHILE
AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY STAND TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MODERATE THETA-E ADVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T`STORMS IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ORIENTS ITSELF PARALLEL TO IT. THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST A MENTION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T`STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS FORCING
GRADUALLY WANES. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THESE AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO THE REGION IN
THE SYSTEM`S WAKE.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (24/18Z-25/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD EXCEPT FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN FOG AT KMKL BETWEEN 25/08Z AND 25/12Z. LIGHT WINDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WINDS AFTER 24/14Z WESTERLY 5-7 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 241510
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1010 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. A FEW CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AT THIS
TIME SO THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS
GOOD WITH NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE MID SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY BEEN
SLOWLY FALLING AS HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY PREVENTED SUBSTANTIAL
RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING
HOWEVER ENOUGH SHALLOW MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO KEEP DEWPOINTS
STEADY. AS TEMPERATURES FALL...POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY AS
WINDS ARE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...A GRADUAL WARMUP IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...RANGING TO THE MID 70S ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRY TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY WARM. SEVERAL PLUMES OF VERY
WARM 850 MB AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. USING LZK`S 850 MB CLIMATOLOGY...THE 19 C MARK
AT 850 MB REPRESENTS 2SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIDDLE TO LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 16 C AND 19 C DEPENDING ON LOCATION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SUPPORTS READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF EAST AR/WEST TN/NORTHERN MS TO
ACHIEVE READINGS A BIT HIGHER THAN THAT ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED STILL REMAINS ON THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
TRENDING SLOWER STILL WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GRADUALLY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
FROM NW TO SE ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. WHILE
AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY STAND TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MODERATE THETA-E ADVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T`STORMS IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ORIENTS ITSELF PARALLEL TO IT. THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST A MENTION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T`STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS FORCING
GRADUALLY WANES. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THESE AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO THE REGION IN
THE SYSTEM`S WAKE.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MKL THROUGH 24/14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 241135
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
635 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE MID SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY BEEN
SLOWLY FALLING AS HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY PREVENTED SUBSTANTIAL
RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING
HOWEVER ENOUGH SHALLOW MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO KEEP DEWPOINTS
STEADY. AS TEMPERATURES FALL...POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY AS
WINDS ARE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...A GRADUAL WARMUP IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...RANGING TO THE MID 70S ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRY TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY WARM. SEVERAL PLUMES OF VERY
WARM 850 MB AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. USING LZK`S 850 MB CLIMATOLOGY...THE 19 C MARK
AT 850 MB REPRESENTS 2SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIDDLE TO LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 16 C AND 19 C DEPENDING ON LOCATION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SUPPORTS READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF EAST AR/WEST TN/NORTHERN MS TO
ACHIEVE READINGS A BIT HIGHER THAN THAT ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED STILL REMAINS ON THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
TRENDING SLOWER STILL WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GRADUALLY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
FROM NW TO SE ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. WHILE
AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY STAND TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MODERATE THETA-E ADVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T`STORMS IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ORIENTS ITSELF PARALLEL TO IT. THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST A MENTION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T`STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS FORCING
GRADUALLY WANES. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THESE AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO THE REGION IN
THE SYSTEM`S WAKE.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT MKL THROUGH 24/14Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 240834
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT-TERM IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING FRIDAY...

THE TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED EAST OF THE MID SOUTH AND HIGH
PRESSURE HAS BUILT ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES HAVE ONLY BEEN
SLOWLY FALLING AS HIGH CLOUD COVER EARLY PREVENTED SUBSTANTIAL
RADIATIONAL HEAT LOSS. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS STILL LACKING
HOWEVER ENOUGH SHALLOW MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO KEEP DEWPOINTS
STEADY. AS TEMPERATURES FALL...POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG ARE LIKELY AS
WINDS ARE NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

FOR FRIDAY...A GRADUAL WARMUP IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE...RANGING TO THE MID 70S ACROSS
EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THERE IS SOME SIGNAL THAT
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL TRY TO OVERSPREAD THE MID SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS PACIFIC MOISTURE SPILLS OVER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. IF THIS OCCURS...HIGH TEMPS MAY NEED TO
BE ADJUSTED DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO.

THE WEEKEND FORECAST STILL LOOKS VERY WARM. SEVERAL PLUMES OF VERY
WARM 850 MB AIR ADVECT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. USING LZK`S 850 MB CLIMATOLOGY...THE 19 C MARK
AT 850 MB REPRESENTS 2SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR MIDDLE TO LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 850 MB TEMPS WILL RANGE SOMEWHERE
BETWEEN 16 C AND 19 C DEPENDING ON LOCATION FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS SUPPORTS READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW AREAS OF EAST AR/WEST TN/NORTHERN MS TO
ACHIEVE READINGS A BIT HIGHER THAN THAT ON SUNDAY...THE WARMEST
DAY OF THE PERIOD.

THE FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED STILL REMAINS ON THE STORM SYSTEM WHICH
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE REGION ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE
TRENDING SLOWER STILL WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE WAVE AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GRADUALLY INCREASED PRECIP CHANCES
FROM NW TO SE ON TUESDAY AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. WHILE
AREAS IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE BOUNDARY STAND TO SEE THE BEST CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MODERATE THETA-E ADVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS/T`STORMS IN AN UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. MODELS ARE
ALSO SUGGESTING THAT THE FRONT MAY STALL AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ORIENTS ITSELF PARALLEL TO IT. THIS SUPPORTS AT LEAST A MENTION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T`STORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS FORCING
GRADUALLY WANES. PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE-TUNE THESE AS THE EVENT
APPROACHES. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES LOOK TO RETURN TO THE REGION IN
THE SYSTEM`S WAKE.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KMKL AND KJBR OVERNIGHT REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT MVFR CIGS AROUND KJBR BETWEEN 15-18Z. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$
















000
FXUS64 KMEG 240516
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1216 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...
9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH CALM WINDS PREVAILING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE... WERE LIFTING EAST AND
SHOULD EXIT THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST AR...MO AND IL WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
A MOISTURE AXIS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGE. 00Z NAM 925MB RH PROG SUGGESTS A FEW OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST AR TOWARD MORNING.

MOST RECENT UPDATE CONTAINED ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES IN MOST PLACES...OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD COOL QUICKLY.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS
COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH FEWER CLOUDS AROUND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. BY SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN START MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL STILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN.

BY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN SOME
WEDNESDAY SO THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF
THE COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME PATCHY
FOG MAY DEVELOP AT KMKL AND KJBR OVERNIGHT REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR.
ALSO CAN/T RULE OUT MVFR CIGS AROUND KJBR BETWEEN 15-18Z. LIGHT
WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 240232 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
932 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH CALM WINDS PREVAILING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE... WERE LIFTING EAST AND
SHOULD EXIT THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST AR...MO AND IL WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
A MOISTURE AXIS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGE. 00Z NAM 925MB RH PROG SUGGESTS A FEW OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST AR TOWARD MORNING.

MOST RECENT UPDATE CONTAINED ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES IN MOST PLACES...OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD COOL QUICKLY.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS
COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH FEWER CLOUDS AROUND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. BY SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN START MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL STILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN.

BY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN SOME
WEDNESDAY SO THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF
THE COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT MVFR
CIGS AROUND KJBR BETWEEN 15-18Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 240232 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
932 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
9PM SURFACE MAP SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH CALM WINDS PREVAILING. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE... WERE LIFTING EAST AND
SHOULD EXIT THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS OVER NORTHWEST AR...MO AND IL WERE ASSOCIATED WITH
A MOISTURE AXIS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
RIDGE. 00Z NAM 925MB RH PROG SUGGESTS A FEW OF THESE LOWER CLOUDS
MAY MAKE IT INTO NORTHEAST AR TOWARD MORNING.

MOST RECENT UPDATE CONTAINED ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD TRENDS. GIVEN
THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES IN MOST PLACES...OVERNIGHT TEMPS
SHOULD COOL QUICKLY.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 621 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS
COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH FEWER CLOUDS AROUND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. BY SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN START MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL STILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN.

BY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN SOME
WEDNESDAY SO THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF
THE COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT MVFR
CIGS AROUND KJBR BETWEEN 15-18Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 232321
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
621 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS
COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH FEWER CLOUDS AROUND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. BY SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN START MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL STILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN.

BY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN SOME
WEDNESDAY SO THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF
THE COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT MVFR
CIGS AROUND KJBR BETWEEN 15-18Z. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 232002
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
302 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUDS HAVE MOVED INTO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.
THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL
STILL BE ENOUGH CLOUD COVER TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING AS
COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
SO DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A LITTLE
WARMER WITH FEWER CLOUDS AROUND WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. BY SATURDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH SO
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON SATURDAY AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND THEN START MOVING BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. AS A
RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. ON MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL STILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MUCH RAIN.

BY TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STARTING TO MOVE INTO WESTERN
ARKANSAS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AND WEAKEN SOME
WEDNESDAY SO THERE WILL BE A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF
THE COLD FRONT NEXT THURSDAY. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONT MAY REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THERE WILL STILL BE A SMALL
CHANCE OF RAIN. COOLER AIR SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN IN PLACE NEXT THURSDAY WITH HIGHS BOTH DAYS
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (23/18Z-24/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 231716 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1216 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 931 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WHILE SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH FAVORABLE LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
30S. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE/EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...THEY HAVE REACHED THE DEWPOINT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. FAVORABLE LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT H5 WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. LOWERED HIGHS JUST
A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 11-13C RANGE.
TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSETTING SOLAR HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH 850 FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...A LARGE WARM PLUME
ORIGINATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. IT NOW SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...STILL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS WHY POPS WEREN`T
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (23/18Z-24/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 231716 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1216 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 931 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WHILE SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH FAVORABLE LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
30S. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE/EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...THEY HAVE REACHED THE DEWPOINT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. FAVORABLE LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT H5 WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. LOWERED HIGHS JUST
A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 11-13C RANGE.
TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSETTING SOLAR HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH 850 FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...A LARGE WARM PLUME
ORIGINATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. IT NOW SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...STILL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS WHY POPS WEREN`T
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (23/18Z-24/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 231431
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
931 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WHILE SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH FAVORABLE LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
30S. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE/EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...THEY HAVE REACHED THE DEWPOINT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. FAVORABLE LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT H5 WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. LOWERED HIGHS JUST
A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 11-13C RANGE.
TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSETTING SOLAR HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH 850 FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...A LARGE WARM PLUME
ORIGINATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. IT NOW SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...STILL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS WHY POPS WEREN`T
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING LIGHT FOG
REDEVELOPING LATE AT MKL. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 231431
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
931 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WHILE SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE EAST.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL
UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH FAVORABLE LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
30S. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE/EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...THEY HAVE REACHED THE DEWPOINT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. FAVORABLE LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT H5 WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. LOWERED HIGHS JUST
A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 11-13C RANGE.
TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSETTING SOLAR HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH 850 FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...A LARGE WARM PLUME
ORIGINATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. IT NOW SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...STILL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS WHY POPS WEREN`T
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING LIGHT FOG
REDEVELOPING LATE AT MKL. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 231103
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH FAVORABLE LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
30S. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE/EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...THEY HAVE REACHED THE DEWPOINT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. FAVORABLE LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT H5 WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. LOWERED HIGHS JUST
A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 11-13C RANGE.
TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSETTING SOLAR HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH 850 FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...A LARGE WARM PLUME
ORIGINATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. IT NOW SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...STILL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS WHY POPS WEREN`T
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING LIGHT FOG
REDEVELOPING LATE AT MKL. LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 230821
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH FAVORABLE LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
30S. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE/EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...THEY HAVE REACHED THE DEWPOINT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. FAVORABLE LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT H5 WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. LOWERED HIGHS JUST
A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 11-13C RANGE.
TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSETTING SOLAR HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH 850 FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...A LARGE WARM PLUME
ORIGINATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. IT NOW SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...STILL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS WHY POPS WEREN`T
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMEG 230821
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT-TERM REVOLVE AROUND PATCHY
FROST POTENTIAL THROUGH 12Z THEN HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY...

A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES EXISTS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING WITH FAVORABLE LOCATIONS HAVING FALLEN INTO THE UPPER
30S. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE/EASTERN ARKANSAS/NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI HAVE ONLY DROPPED TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S AT THIS TIME.
HAVE BEEN WATCHING TEMPERATURE TRENDS CLOSELY AND WHILE
TEMPERATURES DROPPED QUICKLY...THEY HAVE REACHED THE DEWPOINT
WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THEM FROM DROPPING MUCH FURTHER IN THE
ABSENCE OF APPRECIABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. FAVORABLE LOW-LYING
AREAS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
PATCHY FROST AND/OR FOG THIS MORNING.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING AT H5 WILL QUICKLY PASS THROUGH THE MID SOUTH
TODAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL. LOWERED HIGHS JUST
A BIT FOR TODAY AS 850 MB TEMPS ARE ONLY IN THE 11-13C RANGE.
TIME-HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THAT HIGH CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON OFFSETTING SOLAR HEATING TO SOME DEGREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
THANKS TO A REINFORCING SHOT OF CANADIAN AIR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...EVEN
THOUGH 850 FLOW WILL BE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY...A LARGE WARM PLUME
ORIGINATING FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST WILL ADVECT ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY NEAR THE 80 DEGREE MARK
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. SUNDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE WARMER AS LONGWAVE RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CONUS. ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED MONDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.

FOR THE LONG TERM...THE 00Z ECMWF HAS FALLEN MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS WITH REGARD TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL US ON TUESDAY. IT NOW SHOWS MORE OF AN OPEN
WAVE...HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
SEVERAL DAYS OF RETURN FLOW SHOULD YIELD DEWPOINTS NEAR 60 AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WHICH...EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
WEAK...STILL SUPPORTS THE MENTION OF THUNDER GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING. THERE STILL REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION WHICH IS WHY POPS WEREN`T
INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

&&

AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMEG 230529
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1229 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 940 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
EVENING. FORECAST ON TRACK... BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
PATCHY LIGHT FOG WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS APPEARED MOST REACHABLE
OVERNIGHT.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 230240 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
940 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
EVENING. FORECAST ON TRACK... BUT HAVE INTRODUCED A MENTION OF
PATCHY LIGHT FOG WHERE CROSSOVER TEMPS APPEARED MOST REACHABLE
OVERNIGHT.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

.TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 222318
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

..TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 222318
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

..TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 222047
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
347 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AS A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM DOMINATES THE WEATHER AND IT WILL CONTINUE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY.

...TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL COOL INTO THE 40S AND UPPER 30S
ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE JUST HIGH
ENOUGH THAT FROST WILL NOT FORM...EXPECT SOME ISOLATED LOW LYING
AREAS. DID NOT ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY BECAUSE FROST WILL NOT BE
WIDE SPREAD AND IF ANY IT WILL BE PATCHY.

ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MID-
SOUTH AND WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS...UNFORTUNATELY THIS MAY BLOCK
THE VIEW OF THE SOLAR ECLIPSE. YET THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ONLY
BRING IN CLOUDS...NO PRECIPITATION. FRIDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LATE ON MONDAY AN UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. ALONG
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM TAKES IT TIME MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IT BRINGS
A CHANCE OF RAIN TO THE AREA...HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES DON/T CHANGE
MUCH AT THE END OF THE FORECAST DUE TO THE SLOW MOVING FRONT. CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH THAT THIS WILL DEVELOP AS MOST GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT
THIS BEING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT IS WEAK IN THE MID-SOUTH.
THUS ONLY EXPECTING LIGHT PRECIPITATION YET THERE IS A CHANCE
THAT THE MID-SOUTH MAY STAY DRY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH. PUT IN CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO GRADUALLY WARM UP THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 221725
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEAR OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARMING
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE WARMING WITH THE COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS CONTINUE.
SO NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.  TLSJR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
RAIN-FREE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS ARE IN STORE AS A RELATIVELY
COLD AIRMASS PARKS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AS 925MB VALUES WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 8-9C OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER
30S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WHERE
FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL AND MAKE A MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S.

LONG TERM...WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A GORGEOUS SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ON TAP AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF PAINTS A
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST ENERGY STAYING
MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF OUR FA AND POSSIBLY STALLING OUT. FOR NOW...GOING TO ADVERTISE
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 221725
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 958 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEAR OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARMING
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE WARMING WITH THE COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS CONTINUE.
SO NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.  TLSJR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
RAIN-FREE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS ARE IN STORE AS A RELATIVELY
COLD AIRMASS PARKS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AS 925MB VALUES WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 8-9C OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER
30S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WHERE
FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL AND MAKE A MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S.

LONG TERM...WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A GORGEOUS SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ON TAP AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF PAINTS A
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST ENERGY STAYING
MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF OUR FA AND POSSIBLY STALLING OUT. FOR NOW...GOING TO ADVERTISE
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT AND CONTINUE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 221458
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
958 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SKIES CLEAR OVER THE MID-SOUTH THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WARMING
HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE WARMING WITH THE COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE. CURRENT TEMPERATURES SEEM ON TRACK AND LIGHT NORTH WINDS CONTINUE.
SO NO UPDATE PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.  TLJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
RAIN-FREE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS ARE IN STORE AS A RELATIVELY
COLD AIRMASS PARKS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AS 925MB VALUES WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 8-9C OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER
30S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WHERE
FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL AND MAKE A MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S.

LONG TERM...WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A GORGEOUS SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ON TAP AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF PAINTS A
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST ENERGY STAYING
MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF OUR FA AND POSSIBLY STALLING OUT. FOR NOW...GOING TO ADVERTISE
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

SOME MINOR VISBY REDUCTIONS ARE OCCURRING AT MKL THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT. ANY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 14Z THIS MORNING AS MIXING BEGINS AFTER SUNUP. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE VALID
PERIOD...INCLUDING MKL AFTER 14Z.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 221113
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
613 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF CYCLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
RAIN-FREE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS ARE IN STORE AS A RELATIVELY
COLD AIRMASS PARKS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AS 925MB VALUES WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 8-9C OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER
30S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WHERE
FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL AND MAKE A MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S.

LONG TERM...WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A GORGEOUS SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ON TAP AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF PAINTS A
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST ENERGY STAYING
MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF OUR FA AND POSSIBLY STALLING OUT. FOR NOW...GOING TO ADVERTISE
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AC3

AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

SOME MINOR VISBY REDUCTIONS ARE OCCURRING AT MKL THIS
MORNING...HOWEVER THESE SHOULD BE INTERMITTENT. ANY FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY 14Z THIS MORNING AS MIXING BEGINS AFTER SUNUP. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE VALID
PERIOD...INCLUDING MKL AFTER 14Z.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMEG 220832
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
332 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SYNOPSIS...
RAIN-FREE AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 3AM...TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 06Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM JUST OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST AND BACK THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND INTO EASTERN
ARKANSAS. A 1028MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTHWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COUPLE OF COOL DAYS AND CHILLY NIGHTS ARE IN STORE AS A RELATIVELY
COLD AIRMASS PARKS OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...AS 925MB VALUES WILL BE
HOVERING AROUND 8-9C OVER A LARGE PORTION OF WEST TENNESSEE AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI ALONG WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. AS A
RESULT...READINGS OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS WILL BE IN MID TO UPPER
30S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AT LEAST A FEW HOURS WHERE
FROST CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXACT LOCATION AND TIMING IS
STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
POTENTIAL AND MAKE A MENTION IN THE HWO. HIGHS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH READINGS MAINLY IN THE
UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE.

BY FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO
THE 70S.

LONG TERM...WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
A GORGEOUS SEASONABLY WARM WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE ON TAP AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING BECOMES DOMINANT. CLEAR SKIES AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY. THE ECMWF PAINTS A
POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER SETUP WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION...WHILE THE GFS SHOWS THE BEST ENERGY STAYING
MUCH FURTHER NORTH AND A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PART
OF OUR FA AND POSSIBLY STALLING OUT. FOR NOW...GOING TO ADVERTISE
THE LESS AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION WITH SLIGHT CHANCES FOR RAIN ON
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AC3

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MKL/TUP BETWEEN
22/09-13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER
21/15Z THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 23/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 220450
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
AT 9 PM. DEWPOINTS WERE 8 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER OVER KY. THOUGH
WINDS WERE LIGHT...SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN AND
REDUCE THE OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL A BIT. NONETHELESS...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOWARD MORNING...WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. 925MB TEMPS
DROP FROM 14-15C TO 8-9C. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
PROBABLY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
FROST TOWARD THE TN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. NO RAIN EXPECTED AND HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND WITH SOME LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...12Z MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THEN COOLER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MKL/TUP BETWEEN
22/09-13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER
21/15Z THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 23/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 220450
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1150 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
AT 9 PM. DEWPOINTS WERE 8 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER OVER KY. THOUGH
WINDS WERE LIGHT...SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN AND
REDUCE THE OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL A BIT. NONETHELESS...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOWARD MORNING...WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. 925MB TEMPS
DROP FROM 14-15C TO 8-9C. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
PROBABLY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
FROST TOWARD THE TN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. NO RAIN EXPECTED AND HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND WITH SOME LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...12Z MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THEN COOLER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT MKL/TUP BETWEEN
22/09-13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER
21/15Z THEN BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 23/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 220205 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
905 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
AT 9 PM. DEWPOINTS WERE 8 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER OVER KY. THOUGH
WINDS WERE LIGHT...SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN AND
REDUCE THE OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL A BIT. NONETHELESS...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOWARD MORNING...WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. 925MB TEMPS
DROP FROM 14-15C TO 8-9C. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
PROBABLY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
FROST TOWARD THE TN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. NO RAIN EXPECTED AND HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND WITH SOME LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...12Z MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THEN COOLER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 21/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 220205 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
905 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
AT 9 PM. DEWPOINTS WERE 8 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER OVER KY. THOUGH
WINDS WERE LIGHT...SOME OF THIS DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD IN AND
REDUCE THE OVERNIGHT FOG POTENTIAL A BIT. NONETHELESS...PATCHY
VALLEY FOG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TOWARD MORNING...WHERE WINDS
DECOUPLE.

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL FALL DAY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE REGION
WITH SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPS IN THE 70S.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. COOLER AIR WILL
FILTER IN TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ON NORTHEAST WINDS. 925MB TEMPS
DROP FROM 14-15C TO 8-9C. EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S AND
HIGHS IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
PROBABLY BE THE COOLEST NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTH
OVER THE REGION. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL HELP TEMPS DROP
INTO THE 30S IN SOME LOCATIONS. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
FROST TOWARD THE TN RIVER VALLEY.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ROLL THROUGH THE REGION WITH SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. NO RAIN EXPECTED AND HIGH TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE MAINLY
IN THE 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
WITH WARMING TEMPS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPS WILL CLIMB INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY SATURDAY CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND WITH SOME LOWER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY...12Z MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD A FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
TUESDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THEN COOLER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO NORTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AFTER 21/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









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