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000
FXUS64 KMEG 041518
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1018 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY TODAY...ADJUSTED AFTERNOON HIGHS
UP A DEGREE OR TOO AREA WIDE. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ON SURROUNDING AREA SOUNDINGS...ONLY A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY AT MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ALL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST...BUT NOT YET CONVINCED WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH COVERAGE TO JUSTIFY MUCH HIGHER POPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND INTO KENTUCKY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
MORNING INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MID SOUTH STILL
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THIS
MORNING BUT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH DURING THE DAY KEEPING THE MID SOUTH MAINLY RAIN FREE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 70S. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OCCURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE MID
SOUTH. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK EAST INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SCT TSRA
OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
NOT LIKELY AFFECTING THE KMEM OVERNIGHT OPS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 041518
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1018 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED QUICKLY TODAY...ADJUSTED AFTERNOON HIGHS
UP A DEGREE OR TOO AREA WIDE. CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S ON SURROUNDING AREA SOUNDINGS...ONLY A
COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY AT MOST LOCATIONS.
SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILL GO AHEAD AND ALL ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST...BUT NOT YET CONVINCED WE WILL SEE
ENOUGH COVERAGE TO JUSTIFY MUCH HIGHER POPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND INTO KENTUCKY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
MORNING INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MID SOUTH STILL
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THIS
MORNING BUT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH DURING THE DAY KEEPING THE MID SOUTH MAINLY RAIN FREE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 70S. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OCCURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE MID
SOUTH. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK EAST INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SCT TSRA
OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
NOT LIKELY AFFECTING THE KMEM OVERNIGHT OPS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 041133 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
633 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND INTO KENTUCKY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
MORNING INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MID SOUTH STILL
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THIS
MORNING BUT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH DURING THE DAY KEEPING THE MID SOUTH MAINLY RAIN FREE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 70S. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OCCURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE MID
SOUTH. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK EAST INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SCT TSRA
OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
NOT LIKELY AFFECTING THE KMEM OVERNIGHT OPS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 041133 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
633 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND INTO KENTUCKY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
MORNING INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MID SOUTH STILL
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THIS
MORNING BUT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH DURING THE DAY KEEPING THE MID SOUTH MAINLY RAIN FREE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 70S. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OCCURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE MID
SOUTH. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK EAST INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SCT TSRA
OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
NOT LIKELY AFFECTING THE KMEM OVERNIGHT OPS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 041133 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
633 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND INTO KENTUCKY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
MORNING INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MID SOUTH STILL
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THIS
MORNING BUT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH DURING THE DAY KEEPING THE MID SOUTH MAINLY RAIN FREE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 70S. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OCCURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE MID
SOUTH. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK EAST INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS TO CONTINUE. OVERNIGHT SHOULD SEE SCT TSRA
OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MO...SLOWLY MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST AND
NOT LIKELY AFFECTING THE KMEM OVERNIGHT OPS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 040934
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
434 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND INTO KENTUCKY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
MORNING INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MID SOUTH STILL
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THIS
MORNING BUT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH DURING THE DAY KEEPING THE MID SOUTH MAINLY RAIN FREE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 70S. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OCCURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE MID
SOUTH. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK EAST INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
FOG AT KMKL.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 040934
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
434 AM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS PORTIONS OF KANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND INTO KENTUCKY. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS
MORNING INDICATES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE MID SOUTH STILL
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THIS
MORNING BUT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...HIGH CLOUDS ARE PRODUCING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH DURING THE DAY KEEPING THE MID SOUTH MAINLY RAIN FREE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 90S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 70S. SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND RETROGRADE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MID SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH
THE BEST CHANCES OCCURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER MISSOURI DRIFTS SOUTH INTO THE MID
SOUTH. A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF I-40. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER
SHOULD RESULT IN HIGHS BEING SLIGHTLY COOLER ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS BACK EAST INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
FOG AT KMKL.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 040418
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1118 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

UPDATE...

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AS ABUNDANT CIRRUS IS MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WILL UPDATE TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY AND BUMP UP LOWS
SLIGHTLY.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

ITS HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY
EXPECTED TOMORROW. LUCKILY DEW POINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
LAST WEEK WHEN HEAT INDICES MAXED OUT IN THE LOW 110`S. DESPITE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES
OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 105.

IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH TOMORROW WITHOUT MELTING OR
EVAPORATING...RELIEF IS ON THE WAY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT
WARM TEMPERATURES RETROGRADES...A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING....WITH
ENHANCED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DYNAMIC ENERGY IS MINIMAL...UPPER JET STREAM WINDS ARE
LESS THAN 20 KTS...WITH LESS THAN THAT AT THE MIDLEVELS. ALL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME FROM PVA.
THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IS MARGINALLY BETTER. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW 70S...SUPPORTING CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE AND
LI`S GENERALLY -2 TO -4C. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION DOES INCLUDE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
AFTER MIDWEEK...THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE
EQUATION THUS STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS LOOK EVEN LESS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY CREEP INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S BUT HIGH READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL
CREEP BACK UP AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT
REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
AT KMKL.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 040418
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1118 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 859 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

UPDATE...

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AS ABUNDANT CIRRUS IS MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WILL UPDATE TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY AND BUMP UP LOWS
SLIGHTLY.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

ITS HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY
EXPECTED TOMORROW. LUCKILY DEW POINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
LAST WEEK WHEN HEAT INDICES MAXED OUT IN THE LOW 110`S. DESPITE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES
OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 105.

IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH TOMORROW WITHOUT MELTING OR
EVAPORATING...RELIEF IS ON THE WAY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT
WARM TEMPERATURES RETROGRADES...A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING....WITH
ENHANCED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DYNAMIC ENERGY IS MINIMAL...UPPER JET STREAM WINDS ARE
LESS THAN 20 KTS...WITH LESS THAN THAT AT THE MIDLEVELS. ALL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME FROM PVA.
THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IS MARGINALLY BETTER. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW 70S...SUPPORTING CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE AND
LI`S GENERALLY -2 TO -4C. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION DOES INCLUDE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
AFTER MIDWEEK...THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE
EQUATION THUS STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS LOOK EVEN LESS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY CREEP INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S BUT HIGH READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL
CREEP BACK UP AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT
REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
AT KMKL.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 040159
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
859 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AS ABUNDANT CIRRUS IS MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WILL UPDATE TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY AND BUMP UP LOWS
SLIGHTLY.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

ITS HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY
EXPECTED TOMORROW. LUCKILY DEW POINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
LAST WEEK WHEN HEAT INDICES MAXED OUT IN THE LOW 110`S. DESPITE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES
OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 105.

IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH TOMORROW WITHOUT MELTING OR
EVAPORATING...RELIEF IS ON THE WAY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT
WARM TEMPERATURES RETROGRADES...A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING....WITH
ENHANCED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DYNAMIC ENERGY IS MINIMAL...UPPER JET STREAM WINDS ARE
LESS THAN 20 KTS...WITH LESS THAN THAT AT THE MIDLEVELS. ALL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME FROM PVA.
THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IS MARGINALLY BETTER. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW 70S...SUPPORTING CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE AND
LI`S GENERALLY -2 TO -4C. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION DOES INCLUDE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
AFTER MIDWEEK...THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE
EQUATION THUS STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS LOOK EVEN LESS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY CREEP INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S BUT HIGH READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL
CREEP BACK UP AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT
REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
AT KMKL.

SJM

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 040159
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
859 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AS ABUNDANT CIRRUS IS MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WILL UPDATE TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY AND BUMP UP LOWS
SLIGHTLY.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

ITS HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY
EXPECTED TOMORROW. LUCKILY DEW POINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
LAST WEEK WHEN HEAT INDICES MAXED OUT IN THE LOW 110`S. DESPITE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES
OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 105.

IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH TOMORROW WITHOUT MELTING OR
EVAPORATING...RELIEF IS ON THE WAY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT
WARM TEMPERATURES RETROGRADES...A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING....WITH
ENHANCED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DYNAMIC ENERGY IS MINIMAL...UPPER JET STREAM WINDS ARE
LESS THAN 20 KTS...WITH LESS THAN THAT AT THE MIDLEVELS. ALL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME FROM PVA.
THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IS MARGINALLY BETTER. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW 70S...SUPPORTING CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE AND
LI`S GENERALLY -2 TO -4C. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION DOES INCLUDE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
AFTER MIDWEEK...THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE
EQUATION THUS STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS LOOK EVEN LESS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY CREEP INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S BUT HIGH READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL
CREEP BACK UP AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT
REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
AT KMKL.

SJM

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 040159
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
859 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AS ABUNDANT CIRRUS IS MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WILL UPDATE TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY AND BUMP UP LOWS
SLIGHTLY.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

ITS HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY
EXPECTED TOMORROW. LUCKILY DEW POINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
LAST WEEK WHEN HEAT INDICES MAXED OUT IN THE LOW 110`S. DESPITE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES
OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 105.

IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH TOMORROW WITHOUT MELTING OR
EVAPORATING...RELIEF IS ON THE WAY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT
WARM TEMPERATURES RETROGRADES...A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING....WITH
ENHANCED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DYNAMIC ENERGY IS MINIMAL...UPPER JET STREAM WINDS ARE
LESS THAN 20 KTS...WITH LESS THAN THAT AT THE MIDLEVELS. ALL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME FROM PVA.
THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IS MARGINALLY BETTER. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW 70S...SUPPORTING CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE AND
LI`S GENERALLY -2 TO -4C. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION DOES INCLUDE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
AFTER MIDWEEK...THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE
EQUATION THUS STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS LOOK EVEN LESS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY CREEP INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S BUT HIGH READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL
CREEP BACK UP AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT
REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
AT KMKL.

SJM

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 040159
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
859 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...

ANOTHER QUIET NIGHT IS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. THERE IS LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER
OVER THE AREA AS ABUNDANT CIRRUS IS MOVING OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WILL UPDATE TO GO PARTLY CLOUDY AND BUMP UP LOWS
SLIGHTLY.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

ITS HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY
EXPECTED TOMORROW. LUCKILY DEW POINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
LAST WEEK WHEN HEAT INDICES MAXED OUT IN THE LOW 110`S. DESPITE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES
OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 105.

IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH TOMORROW WITHOUT MELTING OR
EVAPORATING...RELIEF IS ON THE WAY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT
WARM TEMPERATURES RETROGRADES...A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING....WITH
ENHANCED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DYNAMIC ENERGY IS MINIMAL...UPPER JET STREAM WINDS ARE
LESS THAN 20 KTS...WITH LESS THAN THAT AT THE MIDLEVELS. ALL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME FROM PVA.
THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IS MARGINALLY BETTER. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW 70S...SUPPORTING CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE AND
LI`S GENERALLY -2 TO -4C. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION DOES INCLUDE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
AFTER MIDWEEK...THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE
EQUATION THUS STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS LOOK EVEN LESS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY CREEP INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S BUT HIGH READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL
CREEP BACK UP AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT
REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
AT KMKL.

SJM

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 032337
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
637 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

ITS HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY
EXPECTED TOMORROW. LUCKILY DEW POINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
LAST WEEK WHEN HEAT INDICES MAXED OUT IN THE LOW 110`S. DESPITE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES
OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 105.

IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH TOMORROW WITHOUT MELTING OR
EVAPORATING...RELIEF IS ON THE WAY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT
WARM TEMPERATURES RETROGRADES...A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING....WITH
ENHANCED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DYNAMIC ENERGY IS MINIMAL...UPPER JET STREAM WINDS ARE
LESS THAN 20 KTS...WITH LESS THAN THAT AT THE MIDLEVELS. ALL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME FROM PVA.
THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IS MARGINALLY BETTER. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW 70S...SUPPORTING CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE AND
LI`S GENERALLY -2 TO -4C. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION DOES INCLUDE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
AFTER MIDWEEK...THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE
EQUATION THUS STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS LOOK EVEN LESS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY CREEP INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S BUT HIGH READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL
CREEP BACK UP AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT
REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
AT KMKL.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 032337
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
637 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

ITS HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY
EXPECTED TOMORROW. LUCKILY DEW POINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
LAST WEEK WHEN HEAT INDICES MAXED OUT IN THE LOW 110`S. DESPITE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES
OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 105.

IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH TOMORROW WITHOUT MELTING OR
EVAPORATING...RELIEF IS ON THE WAY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT
WARM TEMPERATURES RETROGRADES...A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING....WITH
ENHANCED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DYNAMIC ENERGY IS MINIMAL...UPPER JET STREAM WINDS ARE
LESS THAN 20 KTS...WITH LESS THAN THAT AT THE MIDLEVELS. ALL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME FROM PVA.
THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IS MARGINALLY BETTER. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW 70S...SUPPORTING CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE AND
LI`S GENERALLY -2 TO -4C. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION DOES INCLUDE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
AFTER MIDWEEK...THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE
EQUATION THUS STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS LOOK EVEN LESS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY CREEP INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S BUT HIGH READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL
CREEP BACK UP AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT
REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
AT KMKL.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 032013
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ITS HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY
EXPECTED TOMORROW. LUCKILY DEW POINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
LAST WEEK WHEN HEAT INDICES MAXED OUT IN THE LOW 110`S. DESPITE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES
OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 105.

IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH TOMORROW WITHOUT MELTING OR
EVAPORATING...RELIEF IS ON THE WAY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT
WARM TEMPERATURES RETROGRADES...A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING....WITH
ENHANCED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DYNAMIC ENERGY IS MINIMAL...UPPER JET STREAM WINDS ARE
LESS THAN 20 KTS...WITH LESS THAN THAT AT THE MIDLEVELS. ALL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME FROM PVA.
THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IS MARGINALLY BETTER. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW 70S...SUPPORTING CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE AND
LI`S GENERALLY -2 TO -4C. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION DOES INCLUDE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
AFTER MIDWEEK...THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE
EQUATION THUS STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS LOOK EVEN LESS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY CREEP INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S BUT HIGH READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL
CREEP BACK UP AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT
REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 032013
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

ITS HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH ANOTHER SIMILAR DAY
EXPECTED TOMORROW. LUCKILY DEW POINTS ARE NOT AS HIGH AS THEY WERE
LAST WEEK WHEN HEAT INDICES MAXED OUT IN THE LOW 110`S. DESPITE
AMBIENT TEMPERATURES AS WARM AS THE UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON AND
TOMORROW...WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE NEED FOR ANY HEAT ADVISORIES
OR EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS AS HEAT INDICES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW 105.

IF WE CAN MAKE IT THROUGH TOMORROW WITHOUT MELTING OR
EVAPORATING...RELIEF IS ON THE WAY DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART
OF THE WORK WEEK. AS THE UPPER RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CURRENT
WARM TEMPERATURES RETROGRADES...A SEASONABLY STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW APPROACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN
COVERAGE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING....WITH
ENHANCED POPS ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY. DYNAMIC ENERGY IS MINIMAL...UPPER JET STREAM WINDS ARE
LESS THAN 20 KTS...WITH LESS THAN THAT AT THE MIDLEVELS. ALL
DYNAMIC SUPPORT FROM STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL COME FROM PVA.
THERMODYNAMIC ENERGY IS MARGINALLY BETTER. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE LOW 70S...SUPPORTING CAPES IN THE 1000-2000 RANGE AND
LI`S GENERALLY -2 TO -4C. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE STORM PREDICTION DOES INCLUDE MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THEIR DAY 3 OUTLOOK.
AFTER MIDWEEK...THE ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE OUT OF THE
EQUATION THUS STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS LOOK EVEN LESS LIKELY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER...HIGHS WEDNESDAY MAY CREEP INTO THE
MIDDLE 90S BUT HIGH READINGS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW
90S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVER THE WEEKEND...TEMPERATURES WILL
CREEP BACK UP AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...BUT
REMAIN WITHIN A DEGREE OR SO OF NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 031715
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1215 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO WHERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH
DEW POINTS ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. ADDITIONALLY...WE ARE
NOT SEEING THE CONVECTION IN THE WAY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS...AS WELL
AS HEAT INDICES TO BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WE SAY YESTERDAY. NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR INCREASINGLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
VERY WARM ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BEST DEFINE THE EVENTUAL
THREATS. PLAN TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
TRIGGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...SO HAVE
ADDED POPS TO THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

JLH

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS PREVAILING.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 031522
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1022 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO WHERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH
DEW POINTS ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. ADDITIONALLY...WE ARE
NOT SEEING THE CONVECTION IN THE WAY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS...AS WELL
AS HEAT INDICES TO BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WE SAY YESTERDAY. NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR INCREASINGLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
VERY WARM ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BEST DEFINE THE EVENTUAL
THREATS. PLAN TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
TRIGGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...SO HAVE
ADDED POPS TO THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO SW/W WINDS BETWEEN 5-8 KTS TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 04/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 031522
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1022 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO WHERE AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY...ALTHOUGH
DEW POINTS ARE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER. ADDITIONALLY...WE ARE
NOT SEEING THE CONVECTION IN THE WAY OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS...AS WELL
AS HEAT INDICES TO BE 2-4 DEGREES WARMER THAN WE SAY YESTERDAY. NO
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED. FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR INCREASINGLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
VERY WARM ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BEST DEFINE THE EVENTUAL
THREATS. PLAN TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
TRIGGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...SO HAVE
ADDED POPS TO THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO SW/W WINDS BETWEEN 5-8 KTS TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 04/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 031120
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR INCREASINGLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
VERY WARM ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BEST DEFINE THE EVENTUAL
THREATS. PLAN TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
TRIGGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...SO HAVE
ADDED POPS TO THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO SW/W WINDS BETWEEN 5-8 KTS TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 04/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 031120
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR INCREASINGLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
VERY WARM ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BEST DEFINE THE EVENTUAL
THREATS. PLAN TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
TRIGGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...SO HAVE
ADDED POPS TO THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO SW/W WINDS BETWEEN 5-8 KTS TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 04/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 031120
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR INCREASINGLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
VERY WARM ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BEST DEFINE THE EVENTUAL
THREATS. PLAN TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
TRIGGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...SO HAVE
ADDED POPS TO THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO SW/W WINDS BETWEEN 5-8 KTS TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 04/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 031120
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR INCREASINGLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
VERY WARM ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BEST DEFINE THE EVENTUAL
THREATS. PLAN TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
TRIGGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...SO HAVE
ADDED POPS TO THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO SW/W WINDS BETWEEN 5-8 KTS TODAY AND BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 04/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 030851
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR INCREASINGLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
VERY WARM ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BEST DEFINE THE EVENTUAL
THREATS. PLAN TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
TRIGGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...SO HAVE
ADDED POPS TO THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SFC MOISTURE IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT KMKL THAN LAST NIGHT SO
ADDED A LITTLE MORE FOG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VSBYS TOWARD
MORNING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 030851
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR INCREASINGLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
VERY WARM ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BEST DEFINE THE EVENTUAL
THREATS. PLAN TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
TRIGGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...SO HAVE
ADDED POPS TO THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SFC MOISTURE IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT KMKL THAN LAST NIGHT SO
ADDED A LITTLE MORE FOG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VSBYS TOWARD
MORNING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 030851
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR INCREASINGLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
VERY WARM ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BEST DEFINE THE EVENTUAL
THREATS. PLAN TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
TRIGGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...SO HAVE
ADDED POPS TO THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SFC MOISTURE IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT KMKL THAN LAST NIGHT SO
ADDED A LITTLE MORE FOG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VSBYS TOWARD
MORNING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 030851
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
351 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL EXTEND EAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA THROUGH TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR INCREASING HUMIDITY VALUES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AREAWIDE WITH HIGHS INTO THE MIDDLE
AND UPPER 90S IN MOST LOCATIONS. THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR INCREASINGLY
UNCOMFORTABLE CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING TO BETWEEN
100 AND 105 DEGREES. AT THIS TIME...IT STILL APPEARS THAT HEAT
INDEX VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN AND RETROGRADE WESTWARD BY
TUESDAY NIGHT AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL HELP TO INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE HELD A FEW DEGREES COOLER WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
VERY WARM ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POPS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. STEEPENING MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED
WITH THE SHORTWAVE MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO BEST DEFINE THE EVENTUAL
THREATS. PLAN TO MENTION THIS POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
TRIGGER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD IN MOST LOCATIONS. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON
PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEKEND...SO HAVE
ADDED POPS TO THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP BACK TO
NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH CONTINUED HUMID CONDITIONS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SFC MOISTURE IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT KMKL THAN LAST NIGHT SO
ADDED A LITTLE MORE FOG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VSBYS TOWARD
MORNING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 030418
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1118 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WERE OCCURRING HAVE DISSIPATED. LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT OR MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
NO UPDATE IS EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. YESTERDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH WE WARMED ABOUT 13 DEGREES...THAT SHOULD PUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 94 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE. LUCKILY OUR DEW
POINTS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK...SO
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 100. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SFC MOISTURE IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT KMKL THAN LAST NIGHT SO
ADDED A LITTLE MORE FOG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VSBYS TOWARD
MORNING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 030418
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1118 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WERE OCCURRING HAVE DISSIPATED. LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT OR MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
NO UPDATE IS EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. YESTERDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH WE WARMED ABOUT 13 DEGREES...THAT SHOULD PUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 94 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE. LUCKILY OUR DEW
POINTS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK...SO
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 100. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SFC MOISTURE IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT KMKL THAN LAST NIGHT SO
ADDED A LITTLE MORE FOG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VSBYS TOWARD
MORNING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 030418
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1118 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WERE OCCURRING HAVE DISSIPATED. LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT OR MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
NO UPDATE IS EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. YESTERDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH WE WARMED ABOUT 13 DEGREES...THAT SHOULD PUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 94 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE. LUCKILY OUR DEW
POINTS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK...SO
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 100. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SFC MOISTURE IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT KMKL THAN LAST NIGHT SO
ADDED A LITTLE MORE FOG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VSBYS TOWARD
MORNING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 030418
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1118 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WERE OCCURRING HAVE DISSIPATED. LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT OR MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
NO UPDATE IS EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. YESTERDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH WE WARMED ABOUT 13 DEGREES...THAT SHOULD PUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 94 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE. LUCKILY OUR DEW
POINTS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK...SO
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 100. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. SFC MOISTURE IS A LITTLE HIGHER AT KMKL THAN LAST NIGHT SO
ADDED A LITTLE MORE FOG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR VSBYS TOWARD
MORNING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 030137
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
837 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WERE OCCURRING HAVE DISSIPATED. LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT OR MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
NO UPDATE IS EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. YESTERDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH WE WARMED ABOUT 13 DEGREES...THAT SHOULD PUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 94 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE. LUCKILY OUR DEW
POINTS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK...SO
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 100. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMKL BETWEEN 03/09
AND 03/12Z.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 030137
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
837 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WERE OCCURRING HAVE DISSIPATED. LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT OR MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
NO UPDATE IS EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. YESTERDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH WE WARMED ABOUT 13 DEGREES...THAT SHOULD PUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 94 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE. LUCKILY OUR DEW
POINTS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK...SO
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 100. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMKL BETWEEN 03/09
AND 03/12Z.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 030137
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
837 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WERE OCCURRING HAVE DISSIPATED. LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT OR MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
NO UPDATE IS EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. YESTERDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH WE WARMED ABOUT 13 DEGREES...THAT SHOULD PUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 94 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE. LUCKILY OUR DEW
POINTS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK...SO
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 100. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMKL BETWEEN 03/09
AND 03/12Z.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 030137
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
837 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WERE OCCURRING HAVE DISSIPATED. LINGERING
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN OUT OR MOVE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
NO UPDATE IS EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. YESTERDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH WE WARMED ABOUT 13 DEGREES...THAT SHOULD PUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 94 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE. LUCKILY OUR DEW
POINTS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK...SO
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 100. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMKL BETWEEN 03/09
AND 03/12Z.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 022337
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
637 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. YESTERDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH WE WARMED ABOUT 13 DEGREES...THAT SHOULD PUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 94 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE. LUCKILY OUR DEW
POINTS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK...SO
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 100. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMKL BETWEEN 03/09
AND 03/12Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 021706 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. YESTERDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH WE WARMED ABOUT 13 DEGREES...THAT SHOULD PUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 94 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE. LUCKILY OUR DEW
POINTS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK...SO
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 100. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (02/18Z-03/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT KMKL BETWEEN 03/09 AND 03/12Z.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 021706 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. YESTERDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH WE WARMED ABOUT 13 DEGREES...THAT SHOULD PUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 94 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE. LUCKILY OUR DEW
POINTS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK...SO
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 100. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (02/18Z-03/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT KMKL BETWEEN 03/09 AND 03/12Z.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 021706 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. YESTERDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH WE WARMED ABOUT 13 DEGREES...THAT SHOULD PUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 94 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE. LUCKILY OUR DEW
POINTS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK...SO
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 100. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (02/18Z-03/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT KMKL BETWEEN 03/09 AND 03/12Z.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 021706 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1206 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 1051 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. YESTERDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH WE WARMED ABOUT 13 DEGREES...THAT SHOULD PUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 94 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE. LUCKILY OUR DEW
POINTS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK...SO
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 100. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (02/18Z-03/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
POSSIBLE MVFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT KMKL BETWEEN 03/09 AND 03/12Z.
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 021551
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1051 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. YESTERDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH WE WARMED ABOUT 13 DEGREES...THAT SHOULD PUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 94 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE. LUCKILY OUR DEW
POINTS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK...SO
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 100. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 021551
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1051 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. YESTERDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND THE
AFTERNOON HIGH WE WARMED ABOUT 13 DEGREES...THAT SHOULD PUT MOST
OF THE MIDSOUTH IN THE 94 TO 97 DEGREE RANGE. LUCKILY OUR DEW
POINTS REMAIN ABOUT 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN THEY WERE LAST WEEK...SO
HEAT INDICES WILL STAY BELOW 100. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED TO
THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 021111
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 021111
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 021111
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 021111
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
611 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 020826 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
326 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 020826 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
326 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 020826
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
326 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 020826
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
326 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 020826 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
326 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 020826 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
326 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY MONDAY. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 020826
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
326 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE MID SOUTH THROUGH TUESDAY. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE EAST WITH A RETURN FLOW
BRINGING INCREASED HUMIDITY BACK TO THE REGION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD ALSO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S EACH DAY WITH LOWS
IN THE 60S AND 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES SHOULD RISE TO BETWEEN 100
AND 105 DEGREES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS...BUT NOT
EXPECTING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA TO BE REACHED AT THIS TIME.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID WEEK ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK. THE FINAL SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT WHICH SHOULD PUSH A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA.
INCREASED SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH
A RETURN TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 020425
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER AT THIS TIME. WILL GO
AHEAD AND UPDATE TO KEEP 20 POPS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE AREA BEING UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WARMS TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. UNDER SLIGHTLY BUILDING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS... 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 1C PER DAY...THROUGH
TUESDAY. UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING TO
READINGS OF 100 TO 105.

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO...INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP
MODERATE MAX TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH VARYING TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. TOO EARLY
TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES... PARTICULARLY ANY MCV THAT MAY BE GENERATED
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS LESS HOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 020425
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER AT THIS TIME. WILL GO
AHEAD AND UPDATE TO KEEP 20 POPS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE AREA BEING UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WARMS TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. UNDER SLIGHTLY BUILDING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS... 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 1C PER DAY...THROUGH
TUESDAY. UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING TO
READINGS OF 100 TO 105.

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO...INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP
MODERATE MAX TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH VARYING TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. TOO EARLY
TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES... PARTICULARLY ANY MCV THAT MAY BE GENERATED
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS LESS HOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 020425
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER AT THIS TIME. WILL GO
AHEAD AND UPDATE TO KEEP 20 POPS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE AREA BEING UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WARMS TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. UNDER SLIGHTLY BUILDING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS... 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 1C PER DAY...THROUGH
TUESDAY. UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING TO
READINGS OF 100 TO 105.

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO...INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP
MODERATE MAX TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH VARYING TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. TOO EARLY
TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES... PARTICULARLY ANY MCV THAT MAY BE GENERATED
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS LESS HOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 020425
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 837 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER AT THIS TIME. WILL GO
AHEAD AND UPDATE TO KEEP 20 POPS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE AREA BEING UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WARMS TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. UNDER SLIGHTLY BUILDING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS... 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 1C PER DAY...THROUGH
TUESDAY. UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING TO
READINGS OF 100 TO 105.

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO...INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP
MODERATE MAX TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH VARYING TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. TOO EARLY
TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES... PARTICULARLY ANY MCV THAT MAY BE GENERATED
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS LESS HOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 020137
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
837 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER AT THIS TIME. WILL GO
AHEAD AND UPDATE TO KEEP 20 POPS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE AREA BEING UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WARMS TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. UNDER SLIGHTLY BUILDING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS... 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 1C PER DAY...THROUGH
TUESDAY. UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING TO
READINGS OF 100 TO 105.

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO...INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP
MODERATE MAX TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH VARYING TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. TOO EARLY
TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES... PARTICULARLY ANY MCV THAT MAY BE GENERATED
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS LESS HOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 020137
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
837 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER AT THIS TIME. WILL GO
AHEAD AND UPDATE TO KEEP 20 POPS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE AREA BEING UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WARMS TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. UNDER SLIGHTLY BUILDING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS... 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 1C PER DAY...THROUGH
TUESDAY. UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING TO
READINGS OF 100 TO 105.

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO...INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP
MODERATE MAX TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH VARYING TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. TOO EARLY
TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES... PARTICULARLY ANY MCV THAT MAY BE GENERATED
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS LESS HOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 020137
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
837 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER AT THIS TIME. WILL GO
AHEAD AND UPDATE TO KEEP 20 POPS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE AREA BEING UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WARMS TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. UNDER SLIGHTLY BUILDING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS... 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 1C PER DAY...THROUGH
TUESDAY. UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING TO
READINGS OF 100 TO 105.

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO...INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP
MODERATE MAX TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH VARYING TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. TOO EARLY
TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES... PARTICULARLY ANY MCV THAT MAY BE GENERATED
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS LESS HOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 020137
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
837 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN NEAR THE AR/MO BORDER AT THIS TIME. WILL GO
AHEAD AND UPDATE TO KEEP 20 POPS IN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH THE AREA BEING UNDERNEATH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. OTHERWISE...REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WARMS TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. UNDER SLIGHTLY BUILDING MIDLEVEL
HEIGHTS... 850MB TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 1C PER DAY...THROUGH
TUESDAY. UPPER 90S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING TO
READINGS OF 100 TO 105.

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO...INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP
MODERATE MAX TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH VARYING TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. TOO EARLY
TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES... PARTICULARLY ANY MCV THAT MAY BE GENERATED
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS LESS HOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 012336
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WARMS TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. UNDER SLIGHTLY BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS...
850MB TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 1C PER DAY...THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER
90S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING TO READINGS OF
100 TO 105.

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO...INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP
MODERATE MAX TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH VARYING TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. TOO EARLY
TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES... PARTICULARLY ANY MCV THAT MAY BE GENERATED
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS LESS HOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 012336
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WARMS TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. UNDER SLIGHTLY BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS...
850MB TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 1C PER DAY...THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER
90S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING TO READINGS OF
100 TO 105.

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO...INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP
MODERATE MAX TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH VARYING TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. TOO EARLY
TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES... PARTICULARLY ANY MCV THAT MAY BE GENERATED
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS LESS HOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 012336
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WARMS TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. UNDER SLIGHTLY BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS...
850MB TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 1C PER DAY...THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER
90S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING TO READINGS OF
100 TO 105.

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO...INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP
MODERATE MAX TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH VARYING TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. TOO EARLY
TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES... PARTICULARLY ANY MCV THAT MAY BE GENERATED
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS LESS HOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 012336
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WARMS TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. UNDER SLIGHTLY BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS...
850MB TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 1C PER DAY...THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER
90S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING TO READINGS OF
100 TO 105.

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO...INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP
MODERATE MAX TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH VARYING TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. TOO EARLY
TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES... PARTICULARLY ANY MCV THAT MAY BE GENERATED
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS LESS HOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 012035
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST NM. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS A SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WARMS TO ABOVE
NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS. UNDER SLIGHTLY BUILDING MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS...
850MB TEMPS WILL WARM AROUND 1C PER DAY...THROUGH TUESDAY. UPPER
90S WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH HEAT INDICES WARMING TO READINGS OF
100 TO 105.

12Z RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUED TO DEPICT AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY. THE BEST LOW LEVEL FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN MO...INTO THE WESTERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
HOWEVER...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD STILL OCCUR INTO THE MIDSOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AIDED BY A WEAK MIDLEVEL TROF PASSAGE AND DIURNAL
HEATING. INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD HELP
MODERATE MAX TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

TODAY/S 12Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
THE LATE WEEK PERIODS. BOTH MODELS SHOW NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
CONTINUING...WITH VARYING TIMING OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. TOO EARLY
TO TIME INDIVIDUAL WAVES... PARTICULARLY ANY MCV THAT MAY BE GENERATED
FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN GENERAL...THE
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS LESS HOT WITH THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (01/18Z-02/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NE NEAR 11 KTS
AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011724 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY. INCREASINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ADVECTS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK ABOVE
100 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND STALL
OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN AREAS BRINGING AN END TO MOST CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (01/18Z-02/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NE NEAR 11 KTS
AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011724 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY. INCREASINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ADVECTS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK ABOVE
100 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND STALL
OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN AREAS BRINGING AN END TO MOST CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (01/18Z-02/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NE NEAR 11 KTS
AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011724 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY. INCREASINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ADVECTS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK ABOVE
100 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND STALL
OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN AREAS BRINGING AN END TO MOST CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (01/18Z-02/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NE NEAR 11 KTS
AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011724 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1224 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 351 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS
WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE MID SOUTH TODAY WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
MONDAY. INCREASINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH SEASONABLY COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH DRY
WEATHER CONDITIONS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ADVECTS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD. HOT AND HUMID WEATHER
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD PUSH HEAT INDEX VALUES BACK ABOVE
100 DEGREES...ALTHOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT
TUESDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A
SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALSO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA AND STALL
OUT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND BRING
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONT SHOULD GRADUALLY BE FORCED SOUTHWARD BY CONVECTION ON
FRIDAY INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH BY NEXT WEEKEND.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN IN PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHERN SECTIONS WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN AREAS BRINGING AN END TO MOST CONVECTIVE CHANCES IN THESE
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE HELD TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AND WEEKEND DUE TO INCREASED
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (01/18Z-02/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NE NEAR 11 KTS
AT KTUP THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




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