000
FXUS64 KMEG 181159
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 459 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
THE MID SOUTH REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION
HAS BEEN TRAINING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PRODUCING
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE STORMS HAVE ALSO AT TIMES
APPROACHED SEVERE LIMITS OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THIS BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN LESS ACTIVE AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND A STRENGTHENING CAPPING
INVERSION STRENGTHENS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (MLCIN).
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AS DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THESE SEASONABLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AS SBCAPES EXCEED 2500
J/KG...LI/S RANGE FROM -6C TO -8C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXCEED 7.0 C/KM...IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML).
IN ADDITION TO STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
ALONG WITH 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS A NORTHWESTERLY
ORIENTED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KTS ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH MAINLY A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. LOW
LEVEL SPEED SHEAR REMAINS WEAK DESPITE A FAVORABLE VEERING PROFILE
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY TORNADO
POTENTIAL EVEN THOUGH THE THREAT IS NON ZERO. ANY STRONGER STORM
ROTATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MID LEVELS OF THE STORM.
FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI THE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED IN
NATURE AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THESE AREAS WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGER.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST LATER TONIGHT AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK SHOULD MOVE OVER THE MID SOUTH LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD OVERSPREAD AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD STALL OUT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA TODAY. VCTS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT TUP AND DEVELOP AT REMAINING SITES MAINLY
AFTER 18/17Z. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
TOWARDS 18/00Z AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
AREA. LIFR/IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO RETURN AFTER 19/08Z. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS AND DECREASE TO
5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 86 71 90 72 / 30 10 10 10
MKL 84 67 89 69 / 30 20 10 10
JBR 85 69 90 69 / 20 10 10 10
TUP 84 68 89 68 / 60 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-GREENE-
LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-RANDOLPH.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-
TISHOMINGO.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 180959
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
459 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
THE MID SOUTH REMAINS POSITIONED ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. A STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI EARLY THIS MORNING HAS BEEN
THE FOCUS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION
HAS BEEN TRAINING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY...PRODUCING
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. THESE STORMS HAVE ALSO AT TIMES
APPROACHED SEVERE LIMITS OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI INTO PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD REMAIN THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY. WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THIS BOUNDARY MAY REMAIN LESS ACTIVE AS THE UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND A STRENGTHENING CAPPING
INVERSION STRENGTHENS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION (MLCIN).
THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST AS DEWPOINTS RISE TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THESE SEASONABLY HIGH
DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING SHOULD SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AS SBCAPES EXCEED 2500
J/KG...LI/S RANGE FROM -6C TO -8C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
EXCEED 7.0 C/KM...IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY AND ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE ADVANCING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER (EML).
IN ADDITION TO STRENGTHENING INSTABILITY...LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
ALONG WITH 00Z REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA SUGGESTS A NORTHWESTERLY
ORIENTED MID LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KTS ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS COMBINATION OF
INSTABILITY AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT STORM
ORGANIZATION AND ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
MULTICELLULAR CLUSTERS AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH MAINLY A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL THREAT. LOW
LEVEL SPEED SHEAR REMAINS WEAK DESPITE A FAVORABLE VEERING PROFILE
SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING STORMS. THIS SHOULD LIMIT ANY TORNADO
POTENTIAL EVEN THOUGH THE THREAT IS NON ZERO. ANY STRONGER STORM
ROTATION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO THE MID LEVELS OF THE STORM.
FURTHER TO THE WEST ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS INTO NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI THE RIDGING SHOULD KEEP ANY CONVECTION ISOLATED IN
NATURE AND BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
WELL INTO THE 80S OVER THESE AREAS WHERE RIDGING IS STRONGER.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST LATER TONIGHT AND BE
CENTERED OVER THE MID SOUTH FOR SUNDAY INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL SUPPORT DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS.
A STRONGER SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EJECTING EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK SHOULD MOVE OVER THE MID SOUTH LATER TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD OVERSPREAD AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE AND SET THE STAGE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING
THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL BE PROVIDED AS
MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE BETTER RESOLVED. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
SHOULD STALL OUT OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS THE
UPPER SUPPORT PULLS OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. ISOLATED STORMS MAY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONDS HAVE ALREADY DETERIORATED TO LIFR AT KMKL AND KTUP THIS
EVENING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
EARLY SAT. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AT KMEM AND KJBR OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A BOUNDARY LIFTING ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRAS AROUND KTUP SO INCLUDED A
VCSH THERE. LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFT
18/14Z...EVENTUALLY TO VFR BY 18/17Z...CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT INCREASING TO SOUTH AT
7-8 KTS SAT AM.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 86 71 90 72 / 30 10 10 10
MKL 84 67 89 69 / 30 20 10 10
JBR 85 69 90 69 / 20 10 10 10
TUP 84 68 89 68 / 60 20 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLAY-GREENE-
LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-RANDOLPH.
MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-
PEMISCOT.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-
TISHOMINGO.
TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CARROLL-
CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
MCNAIRY-OBION-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 180435
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 911 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT.
CURRENTLY...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. CAN/T RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THUS WILL KEEP 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS
THESE AREAS OTHERWISE WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR.
HOWEVER STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SOME OF SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY...THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL HAVE ENDED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
A COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONDS HAVE ALREADY DETERIORATED TO LIFR AT KMKL AND KTUP THIS
EVENING AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO
EARLY SAT. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE AT KMEM AND KJBR OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A BOUNDARY LIFTING ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI COULD PRODUCE SOME SHRAS AROUND KTUP SO INCLUDED A
VCSH THERE. LIFR/IFR CONDS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE AFT
18/14Z...EVENTUALLY TO VFR BY 18/17Z...CONTINUING THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT INCREASING TO SOUTH AT
7-8 KTS SAT AM.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 69 87 71 90 / 10 20 10 10
MKL 64 84 67 87 / 20 20 20 10
JBR 64 85 69 89 / 10 20 10 10
TUP 67 85 68 88 / 20 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 180211
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
911 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST OVERNIGHT.
CURRENTLY...ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAIN ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. CAN/T RULE
OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT THUS WILL KEEP 20 TO 30 POPS ACROSS
THESE AREAS OTHERWISE WILL UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR THE REST OF
THE CWA. MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE CURRENTLY CLEAR.
HOWEVER STRATUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CWA AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING FOR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SOME OF SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY...THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL HAVE ENDED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
A COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS PREVAIL WITH A FEW SHRAS MAINLY EAST OF A KMKL TO KTUP
LINE. EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST DATA STILL
POINTS TO CONDS LOWERING BACK TO IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR BY 18/16Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
SOUTH AT 6-8 KTS AFTER 18/16Z.
SJM
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 69 87 71 90 / 20 20 10 10
MKL 64 84 67 87 / 30 20 20 10
JBR 64 85 69 89 / 20 20 10 10
TUP 67 85 68 88 / 30 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 180006
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
706 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SOME OF SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY...THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL HAVE ENDED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
A COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS PREVAIL WITH A FEW SHRAS MAINLY EAST OF A KMKL TO KTUP
LINE. EXPECT VFR CONDS THROUGH THE EVENING. LATEST DATA STILL
POINTS TO CONDS LOWERING BACK TO IFR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY SAT
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST. CONDS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
BACK TO VFR BY 18/16Z. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
SOUTH AT 6-8 KTS AFTER 18/16Z.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 69 87 71 90 / 20 20 10 10
MKL 64 84 67 87 / 30 20 20 10
JBR 64 85 69 89 / 20 20 10 10
TUP 67 85 68 88 / 30 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 171955
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
255 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM THE UPPER
60S TO MID 70S. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST INTO FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. AS
IT LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS SECTIONS OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. THE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SOME OF SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BY SUNDAY...THE THREAT OF RAIN WILL HAVE ENDED AND
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH HIGHS ON SUNDAY IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
A COLD FRONT WILL START TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A SMALL CHANCE THAT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER EAST THERE WILL BE A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING WITH
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WHICH MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE (17/18Z-18/18Z)
COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING
KMKL AND KTUP THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TO MVFR...THEN BECOMING VFR EARLY THIS
EVENING. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TO IFR ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 18/05Z...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 18Z/14Z AND VFR AROUND
18/16Z. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON S-SW 6-9 KTS. WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN
S-SW 5-7 KTS AFTER 18/13Z.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 69 87 71 90 / 30 20 10 10
MKL 64 84 67 87 / 50 20 20 10
JBR 64 85 69 89 / 20 20 10 10
TUP 67 85 68 88 / 60 40 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 171739 AAC
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1239 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1006 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN THAT IS FALLING IS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT WARMED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN...THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP QUICKLY SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS AT THIS TIME.
ARS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
VICINITY OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS WILL ALSO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH AS OF 09Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY WORDING THROUGH THE
DAY AT ALL LOCATIONS.
SURFACE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN BACKED
WITH DECENT VEERING PROFILES THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A MID LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF 30-40
KTS WAS SAMPLED FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS AT KLZK...KSHV...AND KJAN.
THIS MID LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AND IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MEAGER. THIS
AMOUNT OF SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND
AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. A HIGHER LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THIS MORNING WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING
CONVECTION AND EXPECTED RENEWED DEVELOPMENT COULD LIMIT OVERALL
HEATING EVEN AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THIS
COMPLEX PATTERN MAKES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS QUITE
UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. PLAN TO
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OVER THESE LOCATIONS
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENTLY STILL THINK THAT THESE VALUES
MAY BE OVERDONE BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THAT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS NECESSARY.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST AND DEAMPLIFIES TONIGHT
THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT TO EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE MID SOUTH. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING TROUGHING
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS NEARING
70 DEGREES AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR CAP
EROSION. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -6C AND -10C...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM...COMBINED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND SPREAD EAST ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND INCREASINGLY HOT WEATHER TO THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 90 DEGREES COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE HOTTEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE
VERY WARM...HUMID...AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE WEATHER BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
TO WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE (17/18Z-18/18Z)
COMPLICATED FORECAST THIS TAF CYCLE WITH QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.
SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AFFECTING
KMKL AND KTUP THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON. IFR CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVING FROM THE WEST TO MVFR...THEN BECOMING VFR EARLY THIS
EVENING. WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...THINK
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE ONCE AGAIN TO IFR ACROSS THE AREA
AFTER 18/05Z...THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR BY 18Z/14Z AND VFR AROUND
18/16Z. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON S-SW 6-9 KTS. WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT...THEN
S-SW 5-7 KTS AFTER 18/13Z.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 80 69 88 72 / 70 20 20 10
MKL 77 65 84 68 / 70 50 30 20
JBR 78 66 87 69 / 70 20 20 10
TUP 80 67 85 69 / 70 50 30 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 171506
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1006 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. THE BULK
OF THE RAIN THAT IS FALLING IS OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WHILE THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON COVERAGE WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE
LOWERED POPS OVER THE WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT WARMED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN...THERE MAY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP QUICKLY SO WILL NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENT TO HIGHS AT THIS TIME.
ARS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 710 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
VICINITY OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS WILL ALSO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH AS OF 09Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY WORDING THROUGH THE
DAY AT ALL LOCATIONS.
SURFACE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN BACKED
WITH DECENT VEERING PROFILES THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A MID LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF 30-40
KTS WAS SAMPLED FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS AT KLZK...KSHV...AND KJAN.
THIS MID LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AND IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MEAGER. THIS
AMOUNT OF SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND
AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. A HIGHER LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THIS MORNING WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING
CONVECTION AND EXPECTED RENEWED DEVELOPMENT COULD LIMIT OVERALL
HEATING EVEN AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THIS
COMPLEX PATTERN MAKES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS QUITE
UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. PLAN TO
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OVER THESE LOCATIONS
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENTLY STILL THINK THAT THESE VALUES
MAY BE OVERDONE BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THAT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS NECESSARY.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST AND DEAMPLIFIES TONIGHT
THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT TO EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE MID SOUTH. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING TROUGHING
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS NEARING
70 DEGREES AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR CAP
EROSION. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -6C AND -10C...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM...COMBINED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND SPREAD EAST ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND INCREASINGLY HOT WEATHER TO THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 90 DEGREES COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE HOTTEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE
VERY WARM...HUMID...AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE WEATHER BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
TO WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE WILL PRODUCE SHRA
AT TAF SITES TODAY AND PERHAPS VCTS AT MKL/TUP THIS MORNING.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT
ALL SITES. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND VEER
WEST/NORTHWEST AT JBR.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 80 69 88 72 / 70 20 20 10
MKL 77 65 84 68 / 70 50 30 20
JBR 78 66 87 69 / 70 20 20 10
TUP 80 67 85 69 / 70 50 30 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 171210
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
710 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 440 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
VICINITY OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS WILL ALSO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH AS OF 09Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY WORDING THROUGH THE
DAY AT ALL LOCATIONS.
SURFACE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN BACKED
WITH DECENT VEERING PROFILES THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A MID LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF 30-40
KTS WAS SAMPLED FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS AT KLZK...KSHV...AND KJAN.
THIS MID LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AND IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MEAGER. THIS
AMOUNT OF SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND
AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. A HIGHER LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THIS MORNING WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING
CONVECTION AND EXPECTED RENEWED DEVELOPMENT COULD LIMIT OVERALL
HEATING EVEN AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THIS
COMPLEX PATTERN MAKES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS QUITE
UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. PLAN TO
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OVER THESE LOCATIONS
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENTLY STILL THINK THAT THESE VALUES
MAY BE OVERDONE BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THAT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS NECESSARY.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST AND DEAMPLIFIES TONIGHT
THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT TO EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE MID SOUTH. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING TROUGHING
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS NEARING
70 DEGREES AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR CAP
EROSION. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -6C AND -10C...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM...COMBINED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND SPREAD EAST ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND INCREASINGLY HOT WEATHER TO THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 90 DEGREES COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE HOTTEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE
VERY WARM...HUMID...AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE WEATHER BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
TO WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE WILL PRODUCE SHRA
AT TAF SITES TODAY AND PERHAPS VCTS AT MKL/TUP THIS MORNING.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THIS MORNING WITH A
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW STRATUS MAY DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AT
ALL SITES. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 6-9 KTS THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME LIGHT TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AND VEER
WEST/NORTHWEST AT JBR.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 69 88 72 90 / 20 20 10 10
MKL 65 84 68 88 / 50 30 20 10
JBR 66 87 69 88 / 20 20 10 10
TUP 67 85 69 88 / 50 30 20 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 170940
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
440 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM POSITIONED OVER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...A 1010MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE
VICINITY OF LITTLE ROCK ARKANSAS WILL ALSO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH AS OF 09Z. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY WORDING THROUGH THE
DAY AT ALL LOCATIONS.
SURFACE WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL REMAIN BACKED
WITH DECENT VEERING PROFILES THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A MID LEVEL JET STREAK ON THE ORDER OF 30-40
KTS WAS SAMPLED FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS AT KLZK...KSHV...AND KJAN.
THIS MID LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT AND IS
FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH TODAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 30 KTS THROUGH THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL SPEED SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MEAGER. THIS
AMOUNT OF SHEAR WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND
AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT. A HIGHER LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS THIS MORNING WITH REGARD TO THE POTENTIAL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS IT WILL BE PREDICATED ON THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY THAT CAN DEVELOP. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING
CONVECTION AND EXPECTED RENEWED DEVELOPMENT COULD LIMIT OVERALL
HEATING EVEN AS DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S. THIS
COMPLEX PATTERN MAKES THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS QUITE
UNCERTAIN AND OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. PLAN TO
CONTINUE WITH THE IDEA THAT A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY SINCE MUCH OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS AFTERNOON SBCAPE VALUES OVER THESE LOCATIONS
BETWEEN 1000-1500 J/KG. CURRENTLY STILL THINK THAT THESE VALUES
MAY BE OVERDONE BY THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND THAT ANY SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. LATER SHIFTS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS POTENTIAL THROUGH THE DAY AND PROVIDE UPDATES AS NECESSARY.
AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES FURTHER NORTHEAST AND DEAMPLIFIES TONIGHT
THE GREATEST CONVECTIVE CHANCES SHOULD SHIFT TO EASTERN SECTIONS
OF THE MID SOUTH. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE OVERNIGHT.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH ON SATURDAY WITH LINGERING TROUGHING
OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS NEARING
70 DEGREES AND WEAK CAPPING SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHERE THERE IS THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR CAP
EROSION. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPES IN EXCESS OF
2500 J/KG...LI/S BETWEEN -6C AND -10C...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN
EXCESS OF 7.0 C/KM...COMBINED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY
SUPPORT A FEW PULSE SEVERE STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CONVECTION SHOULD WANE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AND SPREAD EAST ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MAINLY DRY AND INCREASINGLY HOT WEATHER TO THE AREA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 90 DEGREES COMBINED WITH UPPER 60S
DEWPOINTS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE HOTTEST DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE
VERY WARM...HUMID...AND DRY WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT
MONDAY.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
IMPACT THE WEATHER BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY...EXPECT THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
TO WASH OUT ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER RIDGING SHOULD REBUILD BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT KTUP. HOWEVER CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA ELSEWHERE. THUS WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
VCSH. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AFTER 7-9Z AS THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THINK BEST TIMING AT KMEM AND KJBR WILL BE
AFTER 8Z AND 13Z FOR KMKL AND KTUP. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO
MVFR AFTER 8Z AND TO IFR AROUND 12-13Z. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
AFTER 16Z AS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST. LIGHT SE WINDS
INITIALLY EXPECTED AT KMEM. AFTER 7-8Z...WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS.
KRM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 80 69 88 72 / 70 20 20 10
MKL 77 65 84 68 / 70 50 30 20
JBR 78 66 87 69 / 70 20 20 10
TUP 80 67 85 69 / 70 50 30 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 170504
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1204 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
DISCUSSION...
LOWERED OVERALL POPS A BIT DUE THE SHOWERS NATURE OF THE
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR UPSTREAM. ADDITIONALLY...PLAYED DOWN THE
THUNDER A LITTLE. NEVERTHELESS...AS A WEAK OPEN LOW TRACKS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT COULD APPROACH A HALF
OF AN INCH IN THE DELTA AREAS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TONIGHT THE AMOUNT OF THE SHOWERS THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE TOO MUCH.
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WEAKEN BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT FRIDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SO
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 90 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS WELL EAST OF
THE REGION. BY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION SO THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO THIS WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS
WESTERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SKIRT KTUP. HOWEVER CAN/T
RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA ELSEWHERE. THUS WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
VCSH. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AFTER 7-9Z AS THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THINK BEST TIMING AT KMEM AND KJBR WILL BE
AFTER 8Z AND 13Z FOR KMKL AND KTUP. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO
MVFR AFTER 8Z AND TO IFR AROUND 12-13Z. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
AFTER 16Z AS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST. LIGHT SE WINDS
INITIALLY EXPECTED AT KMEM. AFTER 7-8Z...WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS.
KRM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 80 68 86 71 / 70 40 20 10
MKL 77 66 83 68 / 80 50 20 20
JBR 78 66 84 69 / 70 20 20 10
TUP 79 67 84 68 / 70 50 30 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 170130
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
830 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
LOWERED OVERALL POPS A BIT DUE THE SHOWERS NATURE OF THE
DEVELOPMENT SO FAR UPSTREAM. ADDITIONALLY...PLAYED DOWN THE
THUNDER A LITTLE. NEVERTHELESS...AS A WEAK OPEN LOW TRACKS ACROSS
THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN STRENGTH AND COVERAGE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. RAINFALL TOTALS TONIGHT COULD APPROACH A HALF
OF AN INCH IN THE DELTA AREAS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 616 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TONIGHT THE AMOUNT OF THE SHOWERS THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE TOO MUCH.
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WEAKEN BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT FRIDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SO
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 90 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS WELL EAST OF
THE REGION. BY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION SO THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO THIS WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ARS
AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF TAF SITES. HOWEVER
CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA THUS WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
VCSH. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER 6Z AS THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THINK BEST TIMING AT KMEM AND KJBR WILL BE
AFTER 8Z AND 13Z FOR KMKL AND KTUP. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO
MVFR AFTER 6Z AND TO IFR AROUND 12-13Z. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
AFTER 16Z AS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST. LIGHT SE WINDS
INITALLY EXPECTED AT KMEM. AFTER 7-8Z...WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS.
KRM
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 66 80 68 86 / 60 70 40 20
MKL 65 77 66 83 / 50 80 50 20
JBR 64 78 66 84 / 70 70 20 20
TUP 65 79 67 84 / 40 70 50 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 162316
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
616 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 301 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TONIGHT THE AMOUNT OF THE SHOWERS THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE TOO MUCH.
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WEAKEN BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT FRIDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SO
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 90 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS WELL EAST OF
THE REGION. BY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION SO THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO THIS WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT.
CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF TAF SITES. HOWEVER
CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHRA THUS WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF
VCSH. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR AFTER 6Z AS THE UPPER LOW
PUSHES INTO THE AREA. THINK BEST TIMING AT KMEM AND KJBR WILL BE
AFTER 8Z AND 13Z FOR KMKL AND KTUP. CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY DROP TO
MVFR AFTER 6Z AND TO IFR AROUND 12-13Z. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
AFTER 16Z AS SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST. LIGHT SE WINDS
INITALLY EXPECTED AT KMEM. AFTER 7-8Z...WINDS WILL TURN AROUND TO
THE SOUTH AND INCREASE TO 10-12 KTS.
KRM
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 66 80 68 86 / 80 70 40 20
MKL 65 77 66 83 / 70 80 50 20
JBR 64 78 66 84 / 80 70 20 20
TUP 65 79 67 84 / 60 70 50 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 162001
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
301 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS OVER EXTREME EASTERN OKLAHOMA AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS TONIGHT THE AMOUNT OF THE SHOWERS THAT MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WILL INCREASE ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE TOO MUCH.
ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND
WEAKEN BUT THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MAINLY DURING THE DAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO SLOW ITS MOVEMENT FRIDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN OVER EASTERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP SOME ON
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SO
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN WARMER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS REACHING 90 DEGREES FOR THE
FIRST TIME THIS YEAR.
SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS WELL EAST OF
THE REGION. BY MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
REGION SO THERE MAY BE SOME THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO FAR WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SO THIS WILL BE THE TIME PERIOD WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH. DESPITE CLOUDS AND RAIN TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE (16/18Z-17/18Z)
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...MENTIONED VCTS / VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AFTER
17/05Z...SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH 8-12 KTS. WINDS
DECREASING THIS EVENING FROM THE SE-S AT 5-8 KTS...THEN INCREASING
LATE TONIGHT 7-10 KTS.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 66 80 68 86 / 80 70 40 20
MKL 65 77 66 83 / 70 80 50 20
JBR 64 78 66 84 / 80 70 20 20
TUP 65 79 67 84 / 60 70 50 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 161727 AAC
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1227 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CURRENT POPS LOOKS
GOOD AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AND UPDATE WILL BE SENT
SHORTLY.
ARS
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH A FEW
ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
UNDER 10 KTS...WHILE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO THE
LOW 70S. SATELLITE INDICATED APPROACHING CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH LINE OF AFTERNOON GENERATED CONVECTION STILL
SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST TEXAS.
FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE
CLOSED LOW/DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST...AND BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE AS THE CIRCULATION TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE
THIS...THE 00Z RUNS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE FORTY. HAVE AGREED ON THIS THINKING AND HAVE BUMPED
UP RAIN CHANCES STARTING TONIGHT. OTHER INTERESTING NOTE IS THE
LATEST DAY TWO SEVERE OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK OVER
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR FRIDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE OVERDONE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS...SHEAR IS WEAKENING
A LONGER PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL ONLY GENERATE CAPE VALUES IN
THE 500 J/KG-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH CONTINUED LONG SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...LAST LIFT FROM THE LOW IS WEAKENING SO STORMS WILL BE
DISORGANIZED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FUTURE HWO.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS
THIS REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER WEAK TROUGHING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE GFS AND EURO INDICATE A STRONGER TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES...BUILDING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90F ALONG WITH CAPE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
3000 J/KG. THEY ALSO INDICATE A 2-3C CAP DEVELOPING. THUS HAVE
REMOVED THE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE UPPER HIGH PLAINS MONDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
OCCLUDE IN THE DAKOTAS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE
ACTIVE IN THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTION COULD
EASILY CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES REACHING
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY DAWN TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES BOTH DAYS
WILL RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EURO AND GFS PAINT NEARLY THE SAME
PICTURE AS FAR AS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH AND
FIZZLING. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE BOTH DAYS WITH A RISK
FOR A FEW STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS ARE IN REGARDS TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE EURO
CONTINUES TO TRACK THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST TO
THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WEST. THE
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES THE CLOSED LOW EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSITIONS IT TO AN OPEN WAVE. THE EURO SCENARIO WOULD
LIKELY CREATE A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AREA.
SINCE THIS DISAGREEMENT IS WELL OFF IN THE FUTURE...WILL LEAVE OUT
ANY MENTION OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD WILL ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE (16/18Z-17/18Z)
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...MENTIONED VCTS / VCSH AT ALL THE TAF
SITES. CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AFTER
17/05Z...SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE ALONG WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH 8-12 KTS. WINDS
DECREASING THIS EVENING FROM THE SE-S AT 5-8 KTS...THEN INCREASING
LATE TONIGHT 7-10 KTS.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 81 67 80 70 / 30 50 50 30
MKL 80 64 78 66 / 20 50 50 30
JBR 78 64 78 67 / 40 50 50 20
TUP 81 65 80 67 / 30 50 50 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 161511
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1011 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. CURRENT POPS LOOKS
GOOD AS MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AND UPDATE WILL BE SENT
SHORTLY.
ARS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH A FEW
ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
UNDER 10 KTS...WHILE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO THE
LOW 70S. SATELLITE INDICATED APPROACHING CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH LINE OF AFTERNOON GENERATED CONVECTION STILL
SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST TEXAS.
FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE
CLOSED LOW/DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST...AND BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE AS THE CIRCULATION TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE
THIS...THE 00Z RUNS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE FORTY. HAVE AGREED ON THIS THINKING AND HAVE BUMPED
UP RAIN CHANCES STARTING TONIGHT. OTHER INTERESTING NOTE IS THE
LATEST DAY TWO SEVERE OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK OVER
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR FRIDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE OVERDONE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS...SHEAR IS WEAKENING
.A LONGER PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL ONLY GENERATE CAPE VALUES IN
THE 500 J/KG-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH CONTINUED LONG SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...LAST LIFT FROM THE LOW IS WEAKENING SO STORMS WILL BE
DISORGANIZED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FUTURE HWO.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS
THIS REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER WEAK TROUGHING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE GFS AND EURO INDICATE A STRONGER TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES...BUILDING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90F ALONG WITH CAPE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
3000 J/KG. THEY ALSO INDICATE A 2-3C CAP DEVELOPING. THUS HAVE
REMOVED THE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE UPPER HIGH PLAINS MONDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
OCCLUDE IN THE DAKOTAS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE
ACTIVE IN THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTION COULD
EASILY CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES REACHING
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY DAWN TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES BOTH DAYS
WILL RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EURO AND GFS PAINT NEARLY THE SAME
PICTURE AS FAR AS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH AND
FIZZLING. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE BOTH DAYS WITH A RISK
FOR A FEW STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS ARE IN REGARDS TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE EURO
CONTINUES TO TRACK THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST TO
THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WEST. THE
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES THE CLOSED LOW EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSITIONS IT TO AN OPEN WAVE. THE EURO SCENARIO WOULD
LIKELY CREATE A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AREA.
SINCE THIS DISAGREEMENT IS WELL OFF IN THE FUTURE...WILL LEAVE OUT
ANY MENTION OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD WILL ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL
SITES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THE
AREA TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW. INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC LIFT ALONG WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN AT KJBR...WITH NON MENTIONABLE CHANCES AT
KTUP AND KMKL. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW GETS
CLOSER. WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE PREVALENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 81 67 80 70 / 30 50 50 30
MKL 80 64 78 66 / 20 50 50 30
JBR 78 64 78 67 / 40 50 50 20
TUP 81 65 80 67 / 30 50 50 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 161226
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
726 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH A FEW
ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
UNDER 10 KTS...WHILE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO THE
LOW 70S. SATELLITE INDICATED APPROACHING CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH LINE OF AFTERNOON GENERATED CONVECTION STILL
SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST TEXAS.
FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE
CLOSED LOW/DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST...AND BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE AS THE CIRCULATION TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE
THIS...THE 00Z RUNS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE FORTY. HAVE AGREED ON THIS THINKING AND HAVE BUMPED
UP RAIN CHANCES STARTING TONIGHT. OTHER INTERESTING NOTE IS THE
LATEST DAY TWO SEVERE OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK OVER
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR FRIDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE OVERDONE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS...SHEAR IS WEAKENING
..A LONGER PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL ONLY GENERATE CAPE VALUES IN
THE 500 J/KG-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH CONTINUED LONG SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...LAST LIFT FROM THE LOW IS WEAKENING SO STORMS WILL BE
DISORGANIZED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FUTURE HWO.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS
THIS REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER WEAK TROUGHING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE GFS AND EURO INDICATE A STRONGER TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES...BUILDING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90F ALONG WITH CAPE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
3000 J/KG. THEY ALSO INDICATE A 2-3C CAP DEVELOPING. THUS HAVE
REMOVED THE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE UPPER HIGH PLAINS MONDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
OCCLUDE IN THE DAKOTAS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE
ACTIVE IN THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTION COULD
EASILY CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES REACHING
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY DAWN TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES BOTH DAYS
WILL RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EURO AND GFS PAINT NEARLY THE SAME
PICTURE AS FAR AS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH AND
FIZZLING. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE BOTH DAYS WITH A RISK
FOR A FEW STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS ARE IN REGARDS TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE EURO
CONTINUES TO TRACK THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST TO
THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WEST. THE
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES THE CLOSED LOW EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSITIONS IT TO AN OPEN WAVE. THE EURO SCENARIO WOULD
LIKELY CREATE A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AREA.
SINCE THIS DISAGREEMENT IS WELL OFF IN THE FUTURE...WILL LEAVE OUT
ANY MENTION OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD WILL ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS EVENING AT ALL
SITES. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN PREVALENT OVER THE
AREA TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LOW. INCREASING
INSTABILITY AND SYNOPTIC LIFT ALONG WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY. THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN AT KJBR...WITH NON MENTIONABLE CHANCES AT
KTUP AND KMKL. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TODAY WITH SOME
GUSTS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW GETS
CLOSER. WINDS WILL REMAIN ABOVE 8 KTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WILL ALSO BECOME MORE PREVALENT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 81 67 80 70 / 30 50 50 30
MKL 80 64 78 66 / 20 50 50 30
JBR 78 64 78 67 / 40 50 50 20
TUP 81 65 80 67 / 30 50 50 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 160833
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
333 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH A FEW
ISOLATED PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN. WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
UNDER 10 KTS...WHILE TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 60S TO THE
LOW 70S. SATELLITE INDICATED APPROACHING CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA WITH LINE OF AFTERNOON GENERATED CONVECTION STILL
SURGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST TEXAS.
FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE
CLOSED LOW/DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY TRACK EAST...AND BECOME MORE
DIFFUSE AS THE CIRCULATION TRANSITIONS TO AN OPEN WAVE. DESPITE
THIS...THE 00Z RUNS ARE INDICATING MORE QPF FOR THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ALONG AND SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE FORTY. HAVE AGREED ON THIS THINKING AND HAVE BUMPED
UP RAIN CHANCES STARTING TONIGHT. OTHER INTERESTING NOTE IS THE
LATEST DAY TWO SEVERE OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK OVER
SOUTHWEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI FOR FRIDAY. BELIEVE THIS
MAY BE OVERDONE FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS...SHEAR IS WEAKENING
...A LONGER PERIOD OF SHOWERS WILL ONLY GENERATE CAPE VALUES IN
THE 500 J/KG-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH CONTINUED LONG SKINNY CAPE
PROFILES...LAST LIFT FROM THE LOW IS WEAKENING SO STORMS WILL BE
DISORGANIZED. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM ACROSS THE AREA IN THE FUTURE HWO.
HAVE ALSO INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY OVER THE EAST ON SATURDAY AS
THIS REGION WILL STILL BE UNDER WEAK TROUGHING. HAVE LOWERED HIGH
TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE GFS AND EURO INDICATE A STRONGER TROUGH
WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES...BUILDING THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE OVER THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90F ALONG WITH CAPE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF
3000 J/KG. THEY ALSO INDICATE A 2-3C CAP DEVELOPING. THUS HAVE
REMOVED THE POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE UPPER HIGH PLAINS MONDAY...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
OCCLUDE IN THE DAKOTAS WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT BECOMING MORE
ACTIVE IN THE LOWER MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THIS CONVECTION COULD
EASILY CONTINUE DURING THE NIGHT AS THE LLJ INTENSIFIES REACHING
THE NORTHERN COUNTIES BY DAWN TUESDAY. HEAT INDICES BOTH DAYS
WILL RUN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE EURO AND GFS PAINT NEARLY THE SAME
PICTURE AS FAR AS THE COLD FRONT STALLING OVER THE MIDSOUTH AND
FIZZLING. CONVECTION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE BOTH DAYS WITH A RISK
FOR A FEW STRONG OR POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES
IN THE MODELS ARE IN REGARDS TO THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THE EURO
CONTINUES TO TRACK THE CLOSED LOW FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTHEAST TO
THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS FURTHER WEST. THE
GFS ON THE OTHER HAND TAKES THE CLOSED LOW EAST ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND TRANSITIONS IT TO AN OPEN WAVE. THE EURO SCENARIO WOULD
LIKELY CREATE A BETTER THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AREA.
SINCE THIS DISAGREEMENT IS WELL OFF IN THE FUTURE...WILL LEAVE OUT
ANY MENTION OF THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. TEMPERATURES THIS
PERIOD WILL ONLY COOL SLIGHTLY FROM SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHRAS
COULD EFFECT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH
12Z INCLUDING KMEM AND KJBR. PLAN TO CARRY VCSH ALONG WITH TEMPO FOR
SHOWERS AT KJBR AND KMEM THROUGH 11/12Z. CHANCES FOR TSRAS WILL
AGAIN OCCUR AFTER 18Z ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY TOMORROW NIGHT. SSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS AFTER 15Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KRM/JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 81 67 82 70 / 30 50 50 30
MKL 80 64 80 66 / 20 50 50 30
JBR 78 64 80 67 / 40 50 50 20
TUP 81 65 82 67 / 30 50 50 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 160535
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1235 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...EVEN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE TO INCREASE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND. COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING SHOULD HELP TO
SPEED UP THE PROCESS. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 DEGREES
BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY 55-57 SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEITHER RAINFALL TOTALS
OR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LOOKS IMPRESSIVE
TOMORROW...JUST SHOWERS RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ALMOST
PERFECT FOR MY NEWLY PLANTED GARDEN.
30/SIRMON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
OKLAHOMA AT MIDAFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WAS QUITE ORGANIZED...
HELPING TO SUSTAIN A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW HAD STREAMED
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS TO THE
OZARK PLATEAU BY THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
WEAKER AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME INSOLATION... THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW NEARLY STALLED UNDER A BROAD
UPPER HEIGHT RIDGE...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE SCATTERED DAYTIME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE TN VALLEY AND
PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LOWER 90S TEMPS TO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT OFF TO APPALACHIA BY MONDAY...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LIFT EAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY EVENING.
THIS TROF AXIS PASSAGE MAY SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHRAS
COULD EFFECT AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH
12Z INCLUDING KMEM AND KJBR. PLAN TO CARRY VCSH ALONG WITH TEMPO FOR
SHOWERS AT KJBR AND KMEM THROUGH 11/12Z. CHANCES FOR TSRAS WILL
AGAIN OCCUR AFTER 18Z ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH DUE TO THE
PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. WILL INTRODUCE VCTS AT ALL TAF
SITES AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EVENING AS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE MIDSOUTH BY TOMORROW NIGHT. SSW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS AFTER 15Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
KRM/JLH
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 81 67 82 70 / 30 30 30 20
MKL 80 64 80 66 / 30 30 30 20
JBR 78 64 80 67 / 40 30 30 20
TUP 81 65 82 67 / 20 30 30 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 160231
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
920 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...EVEN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE TO INCREASE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND. COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING SHOULD HELP TO
SPEED UP THE PROCESS. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 DEGREES
BY MIDNIGHT...WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY 55-57 SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE
RAIN REACHING THE GROUND SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEITHER RAINFALL TOTALS
OR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LOOKS IMPRESSIVE
TOMORROW...JUST SHOWERS RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ALMOST
PERFECT FOR MY NEWLY PLANTED GARDEN.
30/SIRMON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
OKLAHOMA AT MIDAFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WAS QUITE ORGANIZED...
HELPING TO SUSTAIN A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW HAD STREAMED
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS TO THE
OZARK PLATEAU BY THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
WEAKER AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME INSOLATION... THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW NEARLY STALLED UNDER A BROAD
UPPER HEIGHT RIDGE...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE SCATTERED DAYTIME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MS
RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE TN VALLEY AND
PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LOWER 90S TEMPS TO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT OFF TO APPALACHIA BY MONDAY...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LIFT EAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY EVENING.
THIS TROF AXIS PASSAGE MAY SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
PWB
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
SHRAS OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 12Z
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SSW WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE 8 KTS AT KMEM OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 15Z.
KRM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 67 83 67 83 / 20 30 30 30
MKL 61 80 63 80 / 20 30 30 30
JBR 64 78 63 82 / 30 40 30 30
TUP 61 84 65 84 / 10 20 30 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 160220
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
920 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE
RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALREADY SHOWING UP ON RADAR ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...EVEN EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HOWEVER IT WILL
TAKE SEVERAL HOURS FOR THE MOISTURE LEVELS IN THE LOW LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE TO INCREASE ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
REACH THE GROUND. COOLING TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING SHOULD HELP TO
SPEED UP THE PROCESS. WE SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 DEGREES
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY 55-57 WE WILL LIKELY
SEE RAIN REACHING THE GROUND SHORTLY THEREAFTER. NEITHER RAINFALL
TOTALS OR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS LOOKS IMPRESSIVE
TOMORROW...JUST SHOWERS RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...ALMOST
PERFECT FOR MY NEWLY PLANTED GARDEN.
30/SIRMON
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 603 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
OKLAHOMA AT MIDAFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WAS QUITE ORGANIZED...
HELPING TO SUSTAIN A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW HAD STREAMED
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS TO THE
OZARK PLATEAU BY THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
WEAKER AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME INSOLATION... THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW NEARLY STALLED UNDER A BROAD
UPPER HEIGHT RIDGE...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE SCATTERED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE TN VALLEY AND
PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LOWER 90S TEMPS TO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT OFF TO APPALACHIA BY MONDAY...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LIFT EAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY EVENING.
THIS TROF AXIS PASSAGE MAY SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
PWB
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
SHRAS OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 12Z
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SSW WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE 8 KTS AT KMEM OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 15Z.
KRM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 67 83 67 83 / 20 30 30 30
MKL 61 80 63 80 / 20 30 30 30
JBR 64 78 63 82 / 30 40 30 30
TUP 61 84 65 84 / 10 20 30 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 152303
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
OKLAHOMA AT MIDAFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WAS QUITE ORGANIZED...
HELPING TO SUSTAIN A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW HAD STREAMED
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS TO THE
OZARK PLATEAU BY THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
WEAKER AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME INSOLATION... THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW NEARLY STALLED UNDER A BROAD
UPPER HEIGHT RIDGE...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE SCATTERED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE TN VALLEY AND
PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LOWER 90S TEMPS TO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT OFF TO APPALACHIA BY MONDAY...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LIFT EAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY EVENING.
THIS TROF AXIS PASSAGE MAY SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW
SHRAS OCCURRING ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AROUND 12Z
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SSW WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE 8 KTS AT KMEM OVERNIGHT. SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 10
KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 15 KTS AFTER 15Z.
KRM
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 67 83 67 83 / 20 30 30 30
MKL 61 80 63 80 / 20 30 30 30
JBR 64 78 63 82 / 30 40 30 30
TUP 61 84 65 84 / 10 20 30 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 152038
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
338 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
OKLAHOMA AT MIDAFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WAS QUITE ORGANIZED...
HELPING TO SUSTAIN A FEW BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE UPPER LOW HAD STREAMED
INTO THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN PARTLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT LIFTS TO THE
OZARK PLATEAU BY THURSDAY EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW WILL BE
WEAKER AND CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME INSOLATION... THERE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LOW CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FOR ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW ON THURSDAY.
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE UPPER LOW NEARLY STALLED UNDER A BROAD
UPPER HEIGHT RIDGE...FRIDAY SHOULD SEE SCATTERED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE MS RIVER
VALLEY ON SUNDAY...LIMITING RAIN CHANCES TO THE TN VALLEY AND
PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LOWER 90S TEMPS TO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL LIFT OFF TO APPALACHIA BY MONDAY...
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY LIFT EAST
TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED
MIDLEVEL TROF AXIS PASSING THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY EVENING.
THIS TROF AXIS PASSAGE MAY SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION
TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
PWB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND IN THE KJBR AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 65 83 67 83 / 20 30 30 30
MKL 61 80 63 80 / 20 30 30 30
JBR 64 78 63 82 / 30 40 30 30
TUP 61 84 65 84 / 10 20 30 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 151734
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MILDER TEMPERATURES OCCURRING OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THANKS TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS THAT HAVE BEEN RUNNING 5 TO 15 MPH...WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS IN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE RADAR
WAS FREE OF ECHOES AND THE SKIES WERE CLEAR.
00Z MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE MIDSOUTH
WEATHER OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THREE DISTINCT WEATHER
MAKERS ANTICIPATED. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR ALBUQUERQUE...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE OUT AHEAD WAS SLOWLY
SURGING NORTHEAST ACROSS TEXAS WITH A FEW PATCHES OF ON-GOING
CONVECTION. THIS MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE OZARKS TODAY AND
INTO THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT. WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING OFF A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUED MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...HIGHS WILL AGAIN CLIMB EASILY INTO THE MID 80S. BELIEVE RAIN
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THIS EVENING AND REMAIN WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH
ACROSS ARKANSAS TOMORROW AND ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE THURSDAY NIGHT.
SKIES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL RUMBLES OF THUNDER. A FEW BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS SHOULD STILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO CREEP UP TO NEAR 80F. AS THE LOW CONTINUES ITS
JOURNEY EAST ON FRIDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ON THE BACK SIDE OF A BUILDING CENTRAL PLAINS RIDGE. THIS FEATURE
WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
FRIDAY...FRIDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY. IT`S ON
SATURDAY WHERE A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE
PULSE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO NEAR
7.5C AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS APPROACH 70F. FOR NOW...WILL PUT A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A STRONG STORM OVER THE EAST IN THE FUTURE HWO.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE MIDSOUTH ON SUNDAY. A
STOUT LOW LEVEL CAP OF NEAR 3C IS ALSO EXPECTED...SO THE AREA WILL
WILL BE DRY FROM CONVECTION BUT ON THE VERGE OF UNCOMFORTABLY
HUMID WITH UPPER 80F HIGHS AND DEWPOINTS AROUND 70F. THIS AIRMASS
WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE THIRD SYSTEM WHICH CONTINUES
TO BE THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE
ROCKIES...BECOMING A CLOSED CIRCULATION IN NEBRASKA ON MONDAY AND
TRACK ACROSS THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY. THE ENERGY WILL SEND A SHARP
AND ACTIVE COLD FRONT SOUTH AFFECTING THE NORTHERN MIDSOUTH
COUNTIES AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE BRUNT OF THE
STORMY WEATHER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY NIGHT AND ON
TUESDAY. FOR NOW SOME SEVERE WEATHER SEEMS FEASIBLE. TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 70S WITH CONSIDERABLY
LOWER HUMIDITY.
JAB
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BE FOUND IN THE KJBR AREA THURSDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
ARS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 87 66 81 65 / 0 20 30 20
MKL 86 64 81 63 / 0 10 30 20
JBR 86 63 78 63 / 10 30 40 20
TUP 86 60 82 62 / 0 10 20 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
| 
