Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KMEG 271751
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1151 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR UP BY THIS EVENING
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.

A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT MKL
AND TUP TO GO ONLY TO BKN. WINDS TO GO DOWN A LITTLE AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHERLY.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO GO NEAR CALM AS RIDGE PASSES OVER. LOW
CLOUDS TO WANE AND A MID DECK TO SCOOT ACROSS AFTER 05Z TO 120Z.

FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TMR MORNING
AS MID DECK THINS.

WER

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271751
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1151 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR UP BY THIS EVENING
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.

A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT MKL
AND TUP TO GO ONLY TO BKN. WINDS TO GO DOWN A LITTLE AS THE
AFTERNOON WEARS ON AND REMAIN MOSTLY NORTHERLY.

TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO GO NEAR CALM AS RIDGE PASSES OVER. LOW
CLOUDS TO WANE AND A MID DECK TO SCOOT ACROSS AFTER 05Z TO 120Z.

FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS TO PICK UP OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TMR MORNING
AS MID DECK THINS.

WER

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 271609
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1009 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR UP BY THIS EVENING
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.

A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING AT KJBR AND
INTO THIS AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271609
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1009 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S.
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO BREAK UP OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND SKIES SHOULD EVENTUALLY CLEAR UP BY THIS EVENING
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION. MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESSEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.

A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING AT KJBR AND
INTO THIS AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 271227
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.

A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDSPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING AT KJBR AND
INTO THIS AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 271227
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
627 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.

A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDSPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS WILL BE COMMON AT ALL TAF SITES THIS MORNING BEFORE
GRADUALLY LIFTING BACK TO VFR BY LATE THIS MORNING AT KJBR AND
INTO THIS AFTERNOON POINTS EAST. STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT. LATER
TONIGHT...MID LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REDEVELOP AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING
ELEVATED WARM FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270941
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
341 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN CONUS
WITH STRONG COASTAL WAVE BEGINNING TO EXIT NEW ENGLAND. ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH...SECONDARY SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW IS
PUSHING EAST AND HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. FOR THIS REASON...DID
INTRODUCE SOME LIGHT FLURRIES THIS MORNING.

FOR THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE MID
SOUTH. SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING WHICH IS
REPRESENTED IN NEARLY ALL HI-RES GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS MIDDLE
TENNESEE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE.
THROUGH THE DAY...LOW CLOUD DECK SHOULD ERODE AND GIVE WAY TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THE COLD AIRMASS IS LIKELY TO OFFSET MUCH IN
THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING SO HIGHS NEAR 40 ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
TO MID 40S ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI ARE LIKELY.

A GRADUAL IS WARMUP IS SHOWN IN MODEL GUIDANCE BEGINNING FRIDAY
AS MERIDIONAL FLOW GIVES WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE INTO THE LOW TEENS BY
SUNDAY...THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S FORECAST.

MODELS HAVE ALSO BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING FAIRLY RAPID
MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH SUNDAY WHICH IS A
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR PERIODS OF DRIZZLE. THE GFS
ACTUALLY DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO BEGINNING FRIDAY BUT DID NOT
INTRODUCE THIS INTO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WITH
CONTINUED LOW LEVEL MOISTENING AND VERY WEAK/SLOW LOW LEVEL
VERTICAL MOTIONS...EXPECT DRIZZLE TO DEVELOP SATURDAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS NORTH. WHETHER THIS WILL BE MEASURABLE IS YET TO BE
DETERMINED BUT ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL EXISTS TO INTRODUCE INTO THE
FORECAST AT THIS JUNCTURE. THIS SCENARIO LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING WITH LIGHT RAIN BECOMING MORE WIDSPREAD BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS FORCING GRADUALLY INCREASES.

A MORE SYNOPTIC SIGNAL EXISTS EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION AS A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE IMPINGES ON A MOISTENING
AIRMASS. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
50S...LAPSE RATES ARE SO WEAK THAT INSTABILITY...EVEN ELEVATED...REMAINS
NEGLIGIBLE. HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS EXPECTED ALONG AND JUST NORTH
OF THIS BOUNDARY AS MOISTURE IS LIFTED UP AND OVER THE FRONTAL
ZONE. GIVEN FLOW NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE BOUNDARY...IT WILL
LIKELY MEANDER THROUGH THE AREA VERY SLOWLY SO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF PRECIP APPEARS POSSIBLE.

FOR THE LONGER TERM...LATER IN THE WEEK...MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
FRONT WASHES OUT AS THE THERMAL GRADIENT RELAXES AND FRONTAL
CIRCULATION SLOWS. PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY END AS ANOTHER PERIOD OF
WARMING BEGINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

CLOUDS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MISSOURI...BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT
INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. BY 18Z-21Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. NW
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THE DAY AND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 270521
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1121 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE.... /ISSUED 910 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATED TO REMOVE LATE EVNING POPS.

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA IN THE PAST
HOUR. THE REMAINDER OF EVENING AND TONIGHT APPEARS DRY...SO HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. SHOWERS
ARE WELL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND JUST ABOUT TO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. SO HAVE REMOVED POPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ALL
OF THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THIS
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME
RAIN. WHILE THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH MAY SEE RAIN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
EVENING.

NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WET. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LINGERING FRONTAL
SYSTEM SO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE OF NEXT WEEK. TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

CLOUDS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MISSOURI...BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT...WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO
THANKSGIVING MORNING. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
BY 18Z-21Z...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. NW WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
DURING THE DAY AND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO THE AREA.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED AFTER 00Z.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270310
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
910 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE LATE EVNING POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA IN THE PAST
HOUR. THE REMAINDER OF EVENING AND TONIGHT APPEARS DRY...SO HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. SHOWERS
ARE WELL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND JUST ABOUT TO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. SO HAVE REMOVED POPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ALL
OF THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THIS
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME
RAIN. WHILE THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH MAY SEE RAIN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
EVENING.

NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WET. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LINGERING FRONTAL
SYSTEM SO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE OF NEXT WEEK. TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

CLOUDS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MISSOURI BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
MORNING. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS. BY 18Z...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY AND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO
THE AREA.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 270310
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
910 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE LATE EVNING POPS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT PATCHES OF RAIN HAVE DIMINISHED OVER THE AREA IN THE PAST
HOUR. THE REMAINDER OF EVENING AND TONIGHT APPEARS DRY...SO HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. SHOWERS
ARE WELL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND JUST ABOUT TO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. SO HAVE REMOVED POPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ALL
OF THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THIS
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME
RAIN. WHILE THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH MAY SEE RAIN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
EVENING.

NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WET. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LINGERING FRONTAL
SYSTEM SO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE OF NEXT WEEK. TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

CLOUDS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MISSOURI BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
MORNING. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS. BY 18Z...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY AND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO
THE AREA.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270033
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
633 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR EVENING POPS AND TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING AS A COUPLE OF LINGERING AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SWING EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. ALSO WATCHING LARGE EXPANSE OF STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD IN
MISSOURI. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THAT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT TO NEAR THE TN/MS BORDER BEFORE SUNRISE. SO
HAVE CHANGED SKY COVER WORDING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. LAST...HAVE LOWERED EVENING TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE A FEW DEGREES.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. SHOWERS
ARE WELL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND JUST ABOUT TO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. SO HAVE REMOVED POPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ALL
OF THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THIS
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME
RAIN. WHILE THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH MAY SEE RAIN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
EVENING.

NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WET. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LINGERING FRONTAL
SYSTEM SO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE OF NEXT WEEK. TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

CLOUDS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MISSOURI BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
MORNING. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS. BY 18Z...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY AND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO
THE AREA.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270033
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
633 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR EVENING POPS AND TO ADJUST OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

INCREASED POPS THIS EVENING AS A COUPLE OF LINGERING AREAS OF
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO SWING EAST BEHIND A COLD FRONT. A FEW
LOCATIONS COULD PICK UP A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. ALSO WATCHING LARGE EXPANSE OF STRATOCUMULUS SHIELD IN
MISSOURI. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT THAT THIS CLOUD DECK WILL SLOWLY
SAG SOUTH OVERNIGHT TO NEAR THE TN/MS BORDER BEFORE SUNRISE. SO
HAVE CHANGED SKY COVER WORDING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA. LAST...HAVE LOWERED EVENING TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE A FEW DEGREES.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 542 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. SHOWERS
ARE WELL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND JUST ABOUT TO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. SO HAVE REMOVED POPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ALL
OF THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THIS
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME
RAIN. WHILE THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH MAY SEE RAIN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
EVENING.

NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WET. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LINGERING FRONTAL
SYSTEM SO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE OF NEXT WEEK. TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

CLOUDS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MISSOURI BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
MORNING. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS. BY 18Z...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY AND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO
THE AREA.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 262342
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
542 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. SHOWERS
ARE WELL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND JUST ABOUT TO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. SO HAVE REMOVED POPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ALL
OF THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THIS
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME
RAIN. WHILE THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH MAY SEE RAIN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
EVENING.

NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WET. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LINGERING FRONTAL
SYSTEM SO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE OF NEXT WEEK. TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

CLOUDS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MISSOURI BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
MORNING. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS. BY 18Z...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY AND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO
THE AREA.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 262342
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
542 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. SHOWERS
ARE WELL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND JUST ABOUT TO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. SO HAVE REMOVED POPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ALL
OF THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THIS
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME
RAIN. WHILE THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH MAY SEE RAIN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
EVENING.

NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WET. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LINGERING FRONTAL
SYSTEM SO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE OF NEXT WEEK. TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

CLOUDS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER MISSOURI BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING
MORNING. CIGS COULD DROP TO MVFR FOR A FEW HOURS. BY 18Z...EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES. NW WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AT TIMES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY AND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SETTLE INTO
THE AREA.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 262135
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. SHOWERS
ARE WELL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND JUST ABOUT TO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. SO HAVE REMOVED POPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ALL
OF THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THIS
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME
RAIN. WHILE THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH MAY SEE RAIN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
EVENING.

NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WET. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LINGERING FRONTAL
SYSTEM SO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE OF NEXT WEEK. TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 262135
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH AND BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT. SHOWERS
ARE WELL EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND JUST ABOUT TO THE
TENNESSEE RIVER. SO HAVE REMOVED POPS AND CHANCE OF RAIN FOR ALL
OF THIS EVENING.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDING INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE THE PATTERN THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL THROUGH SATURDAY.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION ON SUNDAY...THIS
ALONG WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL ALLOW THE TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE 60S. ON SUNDAY AREAS TO THE NORTH MAY SEE SOME
RAIN. WHILE THE ENTIRE MID-SOUTH MAY SEE RAIN BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
EVENING.

NEXT WEEK STARTS OUT WET. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM EARLY
NEXT WEEK. ALSO THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A LINGERING FRONTAL
SYSTEM SO A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF
THE OF NEXT WEEK. TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 261733
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1133 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...
CHANGED SKY CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY AS STILL CLEAR IN MOST OF AREA
STILL.

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM A SHORT WAVE THAT IS BRINGING
SNOW TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. NOT EXPECTING SNOW TO FALL IN
MID-SOUTH AS TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. THE DEW POINTS HAVE
DROPPED SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER...EVEN WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING NOT
EXPECTING SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING. SOME PLACES IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MAY SEE SNOW VERY BRIEFING. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RAIN AND ANY SNOW WILL NOT STICK. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
WEATHER.  REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  TLSJR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST IS TIMING THE PRECIP FROM A
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
THE MID SOUTH REGION TODAY.

A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRUCTURE EXISTS CURRENTLY WITH A VERY
STRONG JET STREAK LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL STORM. THIS
TROUGH AXIS PASSED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS
ROTATING SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES FELL RAPIDLY LAST NIGHT BUT LEVELED OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORECAST BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S AREAWIDE. A PRECIP SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED ON A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND IS DIVING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH LOW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE PRESENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO...LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS CORRECTLY DEPICTS THE
SMALLEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RELEGATED TO A NARROW BAND
COLOCATED WITH VERY STRONG LOCAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN PRECIP GENERATING MECHANISM AND WAS USED TO TIME THE
PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.

THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AROUND 15Z THEN POINTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 18Z. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP PRIOR TO
14Z BUT PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH AND CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY SUPPORTING ONLY LIQUID
PRECIP. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST PRECIP WILL DEVELOP HOWEVER FORCING IS LIMITED FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD VACATE THE AREA BY 00Z WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME.

THIS SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WORKS
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WHICH SUPPORTS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN
THE DAY FRIDAY...FULLY DOING SO OVER THE WEEKEND. A NICE WARMUP IS
ON TAP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED
AS A WARM PLUME OF 850 MB AIR OVERSPREADS THE MIDSOUTH IN WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN STALLING A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAFFLING AROUND THE REGION. GENERAL
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. HAVE KEPT BROAD POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO REPRESENT
THIS. THE FORECAST WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE BUT THE TAKEAWAY HERE
IS THAT THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
CHANGEABLE AND FORECASTING THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS
RANGE IS DIFFICULT.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 261733
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1133 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

UPDATE...
CHANGED SKY CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY AS STILL CLEAR IN MOST OF AREA
STILL.

DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM A SHORT WAVE THAT IS BRINGING
SNOW TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. NOT EXPECTING SNOW TO FALL IN
MID-SOUTH AS TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. THE DEW POINTS HAVE
DROPPED SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER...EVEN WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING NOT
EXPECTING SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING. SOME PLACES IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MAY SEE SNOW VERY BRIEFING. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RAIN AND ANY SNOW WILL NOT STICK. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
WEATHER.  REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  TLSJR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST IS TIMING THE PRECIP FROM A
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
THE MID SOUTH REGION TODAY.

A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRUCTURE EXISTS CURRENTLY WITH A VERY
STRONG JET STREAK LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL STORM. THIS
TROUGH AXIS PASSED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS
ROTATING SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES FELL RAPIDLY LAST NIGHT BUT LEVELED OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORECAST BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S AREAWIDE. A PRECIP SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED ON A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND IS DIVING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH LOW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE PRESENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO...LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS CORRECTLY DEPICTS THE
SMALLEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RELEGATED TO A NARROW BAND
COLOCATED WITH VERY STRONG LOCAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN PRECIP GENERATING MECHANISM AND WAS USED TO TIME THE
PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.

THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AROUND 15Z THEN POINTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 18Z. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP PRIOR TO
14Z BUT PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH AND CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY SUPPORTING ONLY LIQUID
PRECIP. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST PRECIP WILL DEVELOP HOWEVER FORCING IS LIMITED FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD VACATE THE AREA BY 00Z WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME.

THIS SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WORKS
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WHICH SUPPORTS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN
THE DAY FRIDAY...FULLY DOING SO OVER THE WEEKEND. A NICE WARMUP IS
ON TAP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED
AS A WARM PLUME OF 850 MB AIR OVERSPREADS THE MIDSOUTH IN WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN STALLING A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAFFLING AROUND THE REGION. GENERAL
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. HAVE KEPT BROAD POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO REPRESENT
THIS. THE FORECAST WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE BUT THE TAKEAWAY HERE
IS THAT THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
CHANGEABLE AND FORECASTING THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS
RANGE IS DIFFICULT.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS AND THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261646
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1046 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
CHANGED SKY CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY AS STILL CLEAR IN MOST OF AREA
STILL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM A SHORT WAVE THAT IS BRINGING
SNOW TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. NOT EXPECTING SNOW TO FALL IN
MID-SOUTH AS TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. THE DEW POINTS HAVE
DROPPED SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER...EVEN WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING NOT
EXPECTING SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING. SOME PLACES IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MAY SEE SNOW VERY BRIEFING. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RAIN AND ANY SNOW WILL NOT STICK. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
WEATHER.  REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST IS TIMING THE PRECIP FROM A
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
THE MID SOUTH REGION TODAY.

A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRUCTURE EXISTS CURRENTLY WITH A VERY
STRONG JET STREAK LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL STORM. THIS
TROUGH AXIS PASSED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS
ROTATING SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES FELL RAPIDLY LAST NIGHT BUT LEVELED OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORECAST BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S AREAWIDE. A PRECIP SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED ON A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND IS DIVING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH LOW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE PRESENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO...LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS CORRECTLY DEPICTS THE
SMALLEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RELEGATED TO A NARROW BAND
COLOCATED WITH VERY STRONG LOCAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN PRECIP GENERATING MECHANISM AND WAS USED TO TIME THE
PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.

THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AROUND 15Z THEN POINTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MISSIISSPPI RIVER BY 18Z. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP PRIOR TO
14Z BUT PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH AND CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY SUPPORTING ONLY LIQUID
PRECIP. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST PRECIP WILL DEVELOP HOWEVER FORCING IS LIMITED FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD VACATE THE AREA BY 00Z WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME.

THIS SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WORKS
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WHICH SUPPORTS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN
THE DAY FRIDAY...FULLY DOING SO OVER THE WEEKEND. A NICE WARMUP IS
ON TAP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED
AS A WARM PLUME OF 850 MB AIR OVERSPREADS THE MIDSOUTH IN WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN STALLING A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAFFLING AROUND THE REGION. GENERAL
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. HAVE KEPT BROAD POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO REPRESENT
THIS. THE FORECAST WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE BUT THE TAKEAWAY HERE
IS THAT THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
CHANGEABLE AND FORECASTING THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS
RANGE IS DIFFICULT.

TVT

AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR REDUCTIONS OF CIGS AT KJBR AND
KMKL ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES
TO INCLUDE KMEM AND KTUP SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND DRY. BRISK
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONT WILL ABRUPTLY TURN
WEST NORTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN BRISK AROUND 10 KTS. THESE WINDS
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SKIES MAY TEMPORARILY SCATTER OUT AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP BUT
MAY FILL BACK IN WITH MVFR CIGS LATE AT KJBR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AT KMKL BUT LOWER LATE TONIGHT.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 261646
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1046 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
CHANGED SKY CONDITIONS SLIGHTLY AS STILL CLEAR IN MOST OF AREA
STILL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM A SHORT WAVE THAT IS BRINGING
SNOW TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI. NOT EXPECTING SNOW TO FALL IN
MID-SOUTH AS TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. THE DEW POINTS HAVE
DROPPED SLIGHTLY...HOWEVER...EVEN WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING NOT
EXPECTING SNOW WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING. SOME PLACES IN NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS MAY SEE SNOW VERY BRIEFING. MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE
RAIN AND ANY SNOW WILL NOT STICK. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE
WEATHER.  REST OF FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST IS TIMING THE PRECIP FROM A
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
THE MID SOUTH REGION TODAY.

A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRUCTURE EXISTS CURRENTLY WITH A VERY
STRONG JET STREAK LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL STORM. THIS
TROUGH AXIS PASSED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS
ROTATING SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES FELL RAPIDLY LAST NIGHT BUT LEVELED OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORECAST BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S AREAWIDE. A PRECIP SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED ON A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND IS DIVING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH LOW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE PRESENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO...LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS CORRECTLY DEPICTS THE
SMALLEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RELEGATED TO A NARROW BAND
COLOCATED WITH VERY STRONG LOCAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN PRECIP GENERATING MECHANISM AND WAS USED TO TIME THE
PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.

THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AROUND 15Z THEN POINTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MISSIISSPPI RIVER BY 18Z. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP PRIOR TO
14Z BUT PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH AND CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY SUPPORTING ONLY LIQUID
PRECIP. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST PRECIP WILL DEVELOP HOWEVER FORCING IS LIMITED FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD VACATE THE AREA BY 00Z WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME.

THIS SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WORKS
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WHICH SUPPORTS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN
THE DAY FRIDAY...FULLY DOING SO OVER THE WEEKEND. A NICE WARMUP IS
ON TAP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED
AS A WARM PLUME OF 850 MB AIR OVERSPREADS THE MIDSOUTH IN WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN STALLING A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAFFLING AROUND THE REGION. GENERAL
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. HAVE KEPT BROAD POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO REPRESENT
THIS. THE FORECAST WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE BUT THE TAKEAWAY HERE
IS THAT THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
CHANGEABLE AND FORECASTING THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS
RANGE IS DIFFICULT.

TVT

AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR REDUCTIONS OF CIGS AT KJBR AND
KMKL ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES
TO INCLUDE KMEM AND KTUP SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND DRY. BRISK
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONT WILL ABRUPTLY TURN
WEST NORTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN BRISK AROUND 10 KTS. THESE WINDS
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SKIES MAY TEMPORARILY SCATTER OUT AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP BUT
MAY FILL BACK IN WITH MVFR CIGS LATE AT KJBR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AT KMKL BUT LOWER LATE TONIGHT.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261220
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST IS TIMING THE PRECIP FROM A
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
THE MID SOUTH REGION TODAY.

A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRUCTURE EXISTS CURRENTLY WITH A VERY
STRONG JET STREAK LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL STORM. THIS
TROUGH AXIS PASSED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS
ROTATING SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES FELL RAPIDLY LAST NIGHT BUT LEVELED OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORECAST BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S AREAWIDE. A PRECIP SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED ON A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND IS DIVING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH LOW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE PRESENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO...LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS CORRECTLY DEPICTS THE
SMALLEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RELEGATED TO A NARROW BAND
COLOCATED WITH VERY STRONG LOCAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN PRECIP GENERATING MECHANISM AND WAS USED TO TIME THE
PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.

THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AROUND 15Z THEN POINTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MISSIISSPPI RIVER BY 18Z. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP PRIOR TO
14Z BUT PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH AND CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY SUPPORTING ONLY LIQUID
PRECIP. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST PRECIP WILL DEVELOP HOWEVER FORCING IS LIMITED FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD VACATE THE AREA BY 00Z WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME.

THIS SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WORKS
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WHICH SUPPORTS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN
THE DAY FRIDAY...FULLY DOING SO OVER THE WEEKEND. A NICE WARMUP IS
ON TAP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED
AS A WARM PLUME OF 850 MB AIR OVERSPREADS THE MIDSOUTH IN WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN STALLING A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAFFLING AROUND THE REGION. GENERAL
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. HAVE KEPT BROAD POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO REPRESENT
THIS. THE FORECAST WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE BUT THE TAKEAWAY HERE
IS THAT THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
CHANGEABLE AND FORECASTING THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS
RANGE IS DIFFICULT.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR REDUCTIONS OF CIGS AT KJBR AND
KMKL ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES
TO INCLUDE KMEM AND KTUP SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND DRY. BRISK
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONT WILL ABRUPTLY TURN
WEST NORTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN BRISK AROUND 10 KTS. THESE WINDS
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SKIES MAY TEMPORARILY SCATTER OUT AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP BUT
MAY FILL BACK IN WITH MVFR CIGS LATE AT KJBR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AT KMKL BUT LOWER LATE TONIGHT.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261220
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST IS TIMING THE PRECIP FROM A
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
THE MID SOUTH REGION TODAY.

A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRUCTURE EXISTS CURRENTLY WITH A VERY
STRONG JET STREAK LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL STORM. THIS
TROUGH AXIS PASSED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS
ROTATING SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES FELL RAPIDLY LAST NIGHT BUT LEVELED OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORECAST BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S AREAWIDE. A PRECIP SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED ON A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND IS DIVING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH LOW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE PRESENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO...LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS CORRECTLY DEPICTS THE
SMALLEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RELEGATED TO A NARROW BAND
COLOCATED WITH VERY STRONG LOCAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN PRECIP GENERATING MECHANISM AND WAS USED TO TIME THE
PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.

THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AROUND 15Z THEN POINTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MISSIISSPPI RIVER BY 18Z. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP PRIOR TO
14Z BUT PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH AND CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY SUPPORTING ONLY LIQUID
PRECIP. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST PRECIP WILL DEVELOP HOWEVER FORCING IS LIMITED FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD VACATE THE AREA BY 00Z WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME.

THIS SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WORKS
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WHICH SUPPORTS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN
THE DAY FRIDAY...FULLY DOING SO OVER THE WEEKEND. A NICE WARMUP IS
ON TAP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED
AS A WARM PLUME OF 850 MB AIR OVERSPREADS THE MIDSOUTH IN WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN STALLING A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAFFLING AROUND THE REGION. GENERAL
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. HAVE KEPT BROAD POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO REPRESENT
THIS. THE FORECAST WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE BUT THE TAKEAWAY HERE
IS THAT THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
CHANGEABLE AND FORECASTING THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS
RANGE IS DIFFICULT.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE SOME TEMPORARY MVFR REDUCTIONS OF CIGS AT KJBR AND
KMKL ALONG WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN. THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES
TO INCLUDE KMEM AND KTUP SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND DRY. BRISK
SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY TODAY AHEAD OF A FRONT WILL ABRUPTLY TURN
WEST NORTHWESTERLY AND REMAIN BRISK AROUND 10 KTS. THESE WINDS
SHOULD BE MAINTAINED AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SKIES MAY TEMPORARILY SCATTER OUT AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP BUT
MAY FILL BACK IN WITH MVFR CIGS LATE AT KJBR. MVFR CIGS SHOULD
PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AT KMKL BUT LOWER LATE TONIGHT.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 261031
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
431 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CHALLENGE WITH THIS FORECAST IS TIMING THE PRECIP FROM A
RATHER POTENT SHORTWAVE ROTATING SOUTHEAST...EVENTUALLY AFFECTING
THE MID SOUTH REGION TODAY.

A COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRUCTURE EXISTS CURRENTLY WITH A VERY
STRONG JET STREAK LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL STORM. THIS
TROUGH AXIS PASSED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT AND SHORTWAVE
RIDGING IS CURRENTLY OVERHEAD. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM IS
ROTATING SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO EARLY THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES FELL RAPIDLY LAST NIGHT BUT LEVELED OFF
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS FORECAST BUT STILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOW 30S AREAWIDE. A PRECIP SHIELD HAS DEVELOPED ON A CONVERGENCE
AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND IS DIVING
QUICKLY SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH LOW REFLECTIVITY ECHOES ARE PRESENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN MO...LOW LEVELS ARE TOO DRY TO SUPPORT PRECIP
REACHING THE GROUND. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS CORRECTLY DEPICTS THE
SMALLEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS RELEGATED TO A NARROW BAND
COLOCATED WITH VERY STRONG LOCAL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN PRECIP GENERATING MECHANISM AND WAS USED TO TIME THE
PRECIP THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.

THIS AREA OF LIFT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AROUND 15Z THEN POINTS EAST AND SOUTHEAST ALONG THE
MISSIISSPPI RIVER BY 18Z. TEMPERATURE PROFILES ACROSS NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SOME MIXED PRECIP PRIOR TO
14Z BUT PRECIP WILL NOT ARRIVE EARLY ENOUGH AND CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT LOW LEVELS WILL WARM SUFFICIENTLY SUPPORTING ONLY LIQUID
PRECIP. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST PRECIP WILL DEVELOP HOWEVER FORCING IS LIMITED FURTHER
SOUTHWEST...TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE MORNING.
PRECIP SHOULD VACATE THE AREA BY 00Z WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS
REMAINING ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT THIS TIME.

THIS SHORTWAVE BRIEFLY REINFORCES THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WORKS
SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WHICH SUPPORTS BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
THROUGH FRIDAY. ZONAL FLOW ATTEMPTS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF LATE IN
THE DAY FRIDAY...FULLY DOING SO OVER THE WEEKEND. A NICE WARMUP IS
ON TAP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXPECTED
AS A WARM PLUME OF 850 MB AIR OVERSPREADS THE MIDSOUTH IN WEST
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN STALLING A
BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH REGION WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WAFFLING AROUND THE REGION. GENERAL
WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE LIKELY AS WELL AS LONG AS THE BOUNDARY
REMAINS NEAR THE REGION. HAVE KEPT BROAD POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK TO REPRESENT
THIS. THE FORECAST WILL UNDOUBTEDLY CHANGE BUT THE TAKEAWAY HERE
IS THAT THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL LIKELY BE QUITE
CHANGEABLE AND FORECASTING THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AT THIS
RANGE IS DIFFICULT.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH THE MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
MAY ALSO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN VICINITY AT THE SAME TAF SITES.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 16-18 KTS
BETWEEN THE 26/16-27/00Z TIME FRAME. LATER WINDS WILL VEER WEST TO
NORTHWEST...BUT DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 260524
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND
EXPECTED TO DROP FURTHER UNDER CALM CONDITIONS.

ZDM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING
CARRYING THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TEMPORARILY
BEFORE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST TO
LOWER 30S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AFTER MID MORNING. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH BY THE TIME ANY PRECIP
STARTS FOR THE TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HINDER
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SOME SUN WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB TO 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DIP TO AROUND
FREEZING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ONLY IN
THE 40S. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTH. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEYOND
MONDAY AS THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE MIDSOUTH. ENDED UP WITH TAKING A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY
MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH THE MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
MAY ALSO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN VICINITY AT THE SAME TAF SITES.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 16-18 KTS
BETWEEN THE 26/16-27/00Z TIME FRAME. LATER WINDS WILL VEER WEST TO
NORTHWEST...BUT DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 260524
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1124 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 959 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND
EXPECTED TO DROP FURTHER UNDER CALM CONDITIONS.

ZDM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING
CARRYING THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TEMPORARILY
BEFORE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST TO
LOWER 30S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AFTER MID MORNING. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH BY THE TIME ANY PRECIP
STARTS FOR THE TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HINDER
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SOME SUN WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB TO 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DIP TO AROUND
FREEZING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ONLY IN
THE 40S. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTH. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEYOND
MONDAY AS THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE MIDSOUTH. ENDED UP WITH TAKING A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY
MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH THE MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH A THREAT FOR OCCASIONAL
MVFR CIGS AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH
MAY ALSO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS IN VICINITY AT THE SAME TAF SITES.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 16-18 KTS
BETWEEN THE 26/16-27/00Z TIME FRAME. LATER WINDS WILL VEER WEST TO
NORTHWEST...BUT DIMINISH ONLY SLIGHTLY.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 260359
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
959 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND
EXPECTED TO DROP FURTHER UNDER CALM CONDITIONS.

ZDM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...

AT 8 PM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ENTERING EASTERN ARKANSAS AS CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO DEPART THE REGION TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE AREA RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. BASED ON
THESE TRENDS THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES
ARE WARRANTED.

ZDM


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING
CARRYING THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TEMPORARILY
BEFORE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST TO
LOWER 30S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AFTER MID MORNING. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH BY THE TIME ANY PRECIP
STARTS FOR THE TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HINDER
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SOME SUN WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB TO 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DIP TO AROUND
FREEZING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ONLY IN
THE 40S. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTH. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEYOND
MONDAY AS THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE MIDSOUTH. ENDED UP WITH TAKING A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY
MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SJM


&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER VFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS
ARRIVING LATE AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. CALM TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 16-20 KTS EXPECTED AT
MEM...JBR AND MKL.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 260359
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
959 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND
EXPECTED TO DROP FURTHER UNDER CALM CONDITIONS.

ZDM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...

AT 8 PM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ENTERING EASTERN ARKANSAS AS CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO DEPART THE REGION TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE AREA RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. BASED ON
THESE TRENDS THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES
ARE WARRANTED.

ZDM


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING
CARRYING THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TEMPORARILY
BEFORE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST TO
LOWER 30S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AFTER MID MORNING. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH BY THE TIME ANY PRECIP
STARTS FOR THE TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HINDER
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SOME SUN WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB TO 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DIP TO AROUND
FREEZING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ONLY IN
THE 40S. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTH. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEYOND
MONDAY AS THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE MIDSOUTH. ENDED UP WITH TAKING A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY
MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SJM


&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER VFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS
ARRIVING LATE AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. CALM TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 16-20 KTS EXPECTED AT
MEM...JBR AND MKL.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 260359
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
959 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS AS
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AND
EXPECTED TO DROP FURTHER UNDER CALM CONDITIONS.

ZDM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 820 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

UPDATE...

AT 8 PM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ENTERING EASTERN ARKANSAS AS CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO DEPART THE REGION TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE AREA RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. BASED ON
THESE TRENDS THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES
ARE WARRANTED.

ZDM


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING
CARRYING THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TEMPORARILY
BEFORE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST TO
LOWER 30S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AFTER MID MORNING. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH BY THE TIME ANY PRECIP
STARTS FOR THE TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HINDER
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SOME SUN WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB TO 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DIP TO AROUND
FREEZING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ONLY IN
THE 40S. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTH. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEYOND
MONDAY AS THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE MIDSOUTH. ENDED UP WITH TAKING A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY
MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SJM


&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER VFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS
ARRIVING LATE AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. CALM TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 16-20 KTS EXPECTED AT
MEM...JBR AND MKL.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 260220
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
820 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

AT 8 PM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ENTERING EASTERN ARKANSAS AS CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO DEPART THE REGION TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE AREA RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. BASED ON
THESE TRENDS THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES
ARE WARRANTED.

ZDM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING
CARRYING THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TEMPORARILY
BEFORE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST TO
LOWER 30S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AFTER MID MORNING. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH BY THE TIME ANY PRECIP
STARTS FOR THE TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HINDER
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SOME SUN WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB TO 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DIP TO AROUND
FREEZING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ONLY IN
THE 40S. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTH. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEYOND
MONDAY AS THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE MIDSOUTH. ENDED UP WITH TAKING A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY
MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER VFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS
ARRIVING LATE AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. CALM TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 16-20 KTS EXPECTED AT
MEM...JBR AND MKL.

JAB


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 260220
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
820 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...

AT 8 PM A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS ENTERING EASTERN ARKANSAS AS CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO DEPART THE REGION TO THE EAST. TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE AREA RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE LOWER 40S. BASED ON
THESE TRENDS THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES
ARE WARRANTED.

ZDM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING
CARRYING THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TEMPORARILY
BEFORE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST TO
LOWER 30S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AFTER MID MORNING. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH BY THE TIME ANY PRECIP
STARTS FOR THE TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HINDER
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SOME SUN WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB TO 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DIP TO AROUND
FREEZING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ONLY IN
THE 40S. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTH. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEYOND
MONDAY AS THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE MIDSOUTH. ENDED UP WITH TAKING A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY
MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER VFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS
ARRIVING LATE AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. CALM TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 16-20 KTS EXPECTED AT
MEM...JBR AND MKL.

JAB


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 252330
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
530 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014


.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING
CARRYING THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TEMPORARILY
BEFORE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST TO
LOWER 30S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AFTER MID MORNING. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH BY THE TIME ANY PRECIP
STARTS FOR THE TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HINDER
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SOME SUN WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB TO 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DIP TO AROUND
FREEZING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ONLY IN
THE 40S. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTH. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEYOND
MONDAY AS THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE MIDSOUTH. ENDED UP WITH TAKING A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY
MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER VFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS
ARRIVING LATE AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. CALM TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 16-20 KTS EXPECTED AT
MEM...JBR AND MKL.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 252330
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
530 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014


.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING
CARRYING THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TEMPORARILY
BEFORE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST TO
LOWER 30S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AFTER MID MORNING. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH BY THE TIME ANY PRECIP
STARTS FOR THE TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HINDER
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SOME SUN WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB TO 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DIP TO AROUND
FREEZING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ONLY IN
THE 40S. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTH. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEYOND
MONDAY AS THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE MIDSOUTH. ENDED UP WITH TAKING A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY
MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWER VFR CIGS AND VICINITY SHOWERS
ARRIVING LATE AT MEM...JBR AND MKL. CALM TO LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
OVERNIGHT...WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AND SLOWLY INCREASE
AFTER SUNRISE. FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF 16-20 KTS EXPECTED AT
MEM...JBR AND MKL.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 252043
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
243 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING
CARRYING THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TEMPORARILY
BEFORE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST TO
LOWER 30S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AFTER MID MORNING. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH BY THE TIME ANY PRECIP
STARTS FOR THE TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HINDER
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SOME SUN WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB TO 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DIP TO AROUND
FREEZING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ONLY IN
THE 40S. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTH. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEYOND
MONDAY AS THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE MIDSOUTH. ENDED UP WITH TAKING A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY
MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 252043
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
243 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE WHILE AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS FEATURE IS
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPS ARE QUITE COOL WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 50S
NORTH TO AROUND 50 SOUTH. THIS IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING
CARRYING THE HIGH CLOUDS WITH IT AND SKIES WILL CLEAR TEMPORARILY
BEFORE A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE...LIGHT WINDS AND A PERIOD OF RELATIVELY
CLEAR SKIES WILL LEAD TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S IN THE EAST TO
LOWER 30S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN
TO MAINLY NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AFTER MID MORNING. RIGHT
NOW IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS WILL BE WARM ENOUGH BY THE TIME ANY PRECIP
STARTS FOR THE TYPE TO BE ALL RAIN. CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL HINDER
HIGH TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE READINGS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT 50
WHILE FURTHER SOUTH SOME SUN WILL HELP TEMPS CLIMB TO 60.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COOL AIR WILL
FOLLOW THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOWS DIP TO AROUND
FREEZING. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AND ONLY IN
THE 40S. A WARMING TREND WILL DEVELOP BY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLIPS EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 50S AND THEN 60S BY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT ENCROACHES FROM THE NORTH. AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIP FOCUSED ON THE SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY TIME FRAME. THERE ARE
SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEYOND
MONDAY AS THE ECMWF PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND THE GFS
STALLS THE FRONT OVER THE MIDSOUTH. ENDED UP WITH TAKING A
COMPROMISE SOLUTION. BOTH MODELS LIFT THE FRONT BACK NORTH BY
MIDWEEK IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251728
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGH FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER SINCE CIRRUS IS FAIRLY DENSE IN SPOTS OTRW
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TIMING THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEEKEND WARMUP.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS CALM WINDS
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY TO FALL SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 20S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD
NEGATE SOME OF THE COOLING. EXPECT THAT THE MOST RAPID COOLING
WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADYING CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO
RIVER VALLEY AND MID SOUTH REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVELS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWS
WIND BARBS BECOMING PARALLEL TO PRESSURE SURFACES QUICKLY AFTER
18Z ACROSS EASTERN AR. WEST TN FOLLOWS SUIT BY 21Z AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS QUICKLY INCREASE THEREAFTER BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIP. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUGGEST
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST BEFORE TRANSITIONING QUICKLY OVER
TO RAIN. A LATER ONSET OF PRECIP FAVORS AN EVEN QUICKER TRANSITION
TO RAIN BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IN THE MID TERM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED
INITIALLY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS IS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL PLUMES OF WARM AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD BE DRY.

IN THE LONG TERM...A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SINKS SOUTH AND
PARKS ITSELF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE HOWEVER PLACING THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT THIS JUNCTURE
IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD
LINGER NEAR THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING A STRONG SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN END TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. DETAILS
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251728
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGH FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER SINCE CIRRUS IS FAIRLY DENSE IN SPOTS OTRW
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TIMING THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEEKEND WARMUP.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS CALM WINDS
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY TO FALL SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 20S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD
NEGATE SOME OF THE COOLING. EXPECT THAT THE MOST RAPID COOLING
WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADYING CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO
RIVER VALLEY AND MID SOUTH REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVELS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWS
WIND BARBS BECOMING PARALLEL TO PRESSURE SURFACES QUICKLY AFTER
18Z ACROSS EASTERN AR. WEST TN FOLLOWS SUIT BY 21Z AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS QUICKLY INCREASE THEREAFTER BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIP. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUGGEST
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST BEFORE TRANSITIONING QUICKLY OVER
TO RAIN. A LATER ONSET OF PRECIP FAVORS AN EVEN QUICKER TRANSITION
TO RAIN BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IN THE MID TERM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED
INITIALLY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS IS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL PLUMES OF WARM AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD BE DRY.

IN THE LONG TERM...A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SINKS SOUTH AND
PARKS ITSELF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE HOWEVER PLACING THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT THIS JUNCTURE
IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD
LINGER NEAR THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING A STRONG SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN END TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. DETAILS
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251650
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1050 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGH FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER SINCE CIRRUS IS FAIRLY DENSE IN SPOTS OTRW
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TIMING THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEEKEND WARMUP.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS CALM WINDS
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY TO FALL SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 20S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD
NEGATE SOME OF THE COOLING. EXPECT THAT THE MOST RAPID COOLING
WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADYING CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO
RIVER VALLEY AND MID SOUTH REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVELS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWS
WIND BARBS BECOMING PARALLEL TO PRESSURE SURFACES QUICKLY AFTER
18Z ACROSS EASTERN AR. WEST TN FOLLOWS SUIT BY 21Z AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS QUICKLY INCREASE THEREAFTER BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIP. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUGGEST
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST BEFORE TRANSITIONING QUICKLY OVER
TO RAIN. A LATER ONSET OF PRECIP FAVORS AN EVEN QUICKER TRANSITION
TO RAIN BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IN THE MID TERM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED
INITIALLY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS IS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL PLUMES OF WARM AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD BE DRY.

IN THE LONG TERM...A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SINKS SOUTH AND
PARKS ITSELF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE HOWEVER PLACING THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT THIS JUNCTURE
IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD
LINGER NEAR THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING A STRONG SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN END TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. DETAILS
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 KTS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND MID MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251650
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1050 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGH FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER SINCE CIRRUS IS FAIRLY DENSE IN SPOTS OTRW
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TIMING THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEEKEND WARMUP.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS CALM WINDS
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY TO FALL SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 20S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD
NEGATE SOME OF THE COOLING. EXPECT THAT THE MOST RAPID COOLING
WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADYING CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO
RIVER VALLEY AND MID SOUTH REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVELS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWS
WIND BARBS BECOMING PARALLEL TO PRESSURE SURFACES QUICKLY AFTER
18Z ACROSS EASTERN AR. WEST TN FOLLOWS SUIT BY 21Z AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS QUICKLY INCREASE THEREAFTER BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIP. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUGGEST
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST BEFORE TRANSITIONING QUICKLY OVER
TO RAIN. A LATER ONSET OF PRECIP FAVORS AN EVEN QUICKER TRANSITION
TO RAIN BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IN THE MID TERM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED
INITIALLY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS IS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL PLUMES OF WARM AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD BE DRY.

IN THE LONG TERM...A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SINKS SOUTH AND
PARKS ITSELF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE HOWEVER PLACING THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT THIS JUNCTURE
IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD
LINGER NEAR THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING A STRONG SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN END TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. DETAILS
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 KTS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND MID MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251650
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1050 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGH FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER SINCE CIRRUS IS FAIRLY DENSE IN SPOTS OTRW
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TIMING THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEEKEND WARMUP.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS CALM WINDS
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY TO FALL SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 20S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD
NEGATE SOME OF THE COOLING. EXPECT THAT THE MOST RAPID COOLING
WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADYING CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO
RIVER VALLEY AND MID SOUTH REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVELS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWS
WIND BARBS BECOMING PARALLEL TO PRESSURE SURFACES QUICKLY AFTER
18Z ACROSS EASTERN AR. WEST TN FOLLOWS SUIT BY 21Z AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS QUICKLY INCREASE THEREAFTER BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIP. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUGGEST
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST BEFORE TRANSITIONING QUICKLY OVER
TO RAIN. A LATER ONSET OF PRECIP FAVORS AN EVEN QUICKER TRANSITION
TO RAIN BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IN THE MID TERM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED
INITIALLY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS IS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL PLUMES OF WARM AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD BE DRY.

IN THE LONG TERM...A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SINKS SOUTH AND
PARKS ITSELF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE HOWEVER PLACING THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT THIS JUNCTURE
IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD
LINGER NEAR THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING A STRONG SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN END TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. DETAILS
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 KTS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND MID MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251650
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1050 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

COOL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OVER THE MIDSOUTH. MEANWHILE
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE
MIDSOUTH FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW
NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGH FROM THE MID 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S SOUTH.
ADDED SOME CLOUD COVER SINCE CIRRUS IS FAIRLY DENSE IN SPOTS OTRW
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TIMING THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEEKEND WARMUP.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS CALM WINDS
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY TO FALL SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 20S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD
NEGATE SOME OF THE COOLING. EXPECT THAT THE MOST RAPID COOLING
WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADYING CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO
RIVER VALLEY AND MID SOUTH REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVELS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWS
WIND BARBS BECOMING PARALLEL TO PRESSURE SURFACES QUICKLY AFTER
18Z ACROSS EASTERN AR. WEST TN FOLLOWS SUIT BY 21Z AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS QUICKLY INCREASE THEREAFTER BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIP. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUGGEST
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST BEFORE TRANSITIONING QUICKLY OVER
TO RAIN. A LATER ONSET OF PRECIP FAVORS AN EVEN QUICKER TRANSITION
TO RAIN BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IN THE MID TERM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED
INITIALLY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS IS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL PLUMES OF WARM AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD BE DRY.

IN THE LONG TERM...A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SINKS SOUTH AND
PARKS ITSELF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE HOWEVER PLACING THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT THIS JUNCTURE
IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD
LINGER NEAR THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING A STRONG SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN END TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. DETAILS
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 KTS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND MID MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251133
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
533 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TIMING THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEEKEND WARMUP.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS CALM WINDS
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY TO FALL SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 20S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD
NEGATE SOME OF THE COOLING. EXPECT THAT THE MOST RAPID COOLING
WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADYING CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO
RIVER VALLEY AND MID SOUTH REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVELS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWS
WIND BARBS BECOMING PARALLEL TO PRESSURE SURFACES QUICKLY AFTER
18Z ACROSS EASTERN AR. WEST TN FOLLOWS SUIT BY 21Z AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS QUICKLY INCREASE THEREAFTER BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIP. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUGGEST
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST BEFORE TRANSITIONING QUICKLY OVER
TO RAIN. A LATER ONSET OF PRECIP FAVORS AN EVEN QUICKER TRANSITION
TO RAIN BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IN THE MID TERM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED
INITIALLY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS IS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL PLUMES OF WARM AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD BE DRY.

IN THE LONG TERM...A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SINKS SOUTH AND
PARKS ITSELF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE HOWEVER PLACING THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT THIS JUNCTURE
IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD
LINGER NEAR THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING A STRONG SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN END TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. DETAILS
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 KTS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND MID MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251133
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
533 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TIMING THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEEKEND WARMUP.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS CALM WINDS
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY TO FALL SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 20S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD
NEGATE SOME OF THE COOLING. EXPECT THAT THE MOST RAPID COOLING
WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADYING CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO
RIVER VALLEY AND MID SOUTH REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVELS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWS
WIND BARBS BECOMING PARALLEL TO PRESSURE SURFACES QUICKLY AFTER
18Z ACROSS EASTERN AR. WEST TN FOLLOWS SUIT BY 21Z AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS QUICKLY INCREASE THEREAFTER BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIP. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUGGEST
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST BEFORE TRANSITIONING QUICKLY OVER
TO RAIN. A LATER ONSET OF PRECIP FAVORS AN EVEN QUICKER TRANSITION
TO RAIN BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IN THE MID TERM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED
INITIALLY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS IS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL PLUMES OF WARM AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD BE DRY.

IN THE LONG TERM...A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SINKS SOUTH AND
PARKS ITSELF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE HOWEVER PLACING THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT THIS JUNCTURE
IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD
LINGER NEAR THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING A STRONG SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN END TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. DETAILS
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAINLY HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS TODAY...WITH A MID LEVEL DECK DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM. NOT EXPECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS TAF PERIOD.

NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7 KTS SHOULD DEVELOP AROUND MID MORNING AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD GO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251017
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TIMING THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEEKEND WARMUP.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS CALM WINDS
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY TO FALL SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 20S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD
NEGATE SOME OF THE COOLING. EXPECT THAT THE MOST RAPID COOLING
WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADYING CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO
RIVER VALLEY AND MID SOUTH REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVELS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWS
WIND BARBS BECOMING PARALLEL TO PRESSURE SURFACES QUICKLY AFTER
18Z ACROSS EASTERN AR. WEST TN FOLLOWS SUIT BY 21Z AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS QUICKLY INCREASE THEREAFTER BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIP. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUGGEST
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST BEFORE TRANSITIONING QUICKLY OVER
TO RAIN. A LATER ONSET OF PRECIP FAVORS AN EVEN QUICKER TRANSITION
TO RAIN BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IN THE MID TERM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED
INITIALLY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS IS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL PLUMES OF WARM AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD BE DRY.

IN THE LONG TERM...A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SINKS SOUTH AND
PARKS ITSELF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE HOWEVER PLACING THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT THIS JUNCTURE
IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD
LINGER NEAR THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING A STRONG SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN END TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. DETAILS
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD WITH WEST WINDS VEERING
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251017
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS TIMING THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEEKEND WARMUP.

A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
COOL TEMPERATURES...ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE DEPENDING ON
LOCATION. THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING
MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT.
ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AS CALM WINDS
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE AXIS SHOULD ALLOW AREAS ALONG THE TENNESSEE
RIVER VALLEY TO FALL SUBSTANTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 20S BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS THAT THERE IS SOME SIGNAL FOR UPPER
LEVEL CLOUDS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT WHICH COULD
NEGATE SOME OF THE COOLING. EXPECT THAT THE MOST RAPID COOLING
WILL OCCUR BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH A STEADYING CURVE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

A COMPACT SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MO
RIVER VALLEY AND MID SOUTH REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SLOWED
DOWN THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AS LOW LEVELS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MIDDAY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. THERE SHOULD BE A SHARP GRADIENT IN PRECIP
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWS
WIND BARBS BECOMING PARALLEL TO PRESSURE SURFACES QUICKLY AFTER
18Z ACROSS EASTERN AR. WEST TN FOLLOWS SUIT BY 21Z AND CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS QUICKLY INCREASE THEREAFTER BRINGING AN END TO
PRECIP. TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION SUGGEST
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST BEFORE TRANSITIONING QUICKLY OVER
TO RAIN. A LATER ONSET OF PRECIP FAVORS AN EVEN QUICKER TRANSITION
TO RAIN BUT THIS IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.

IN THE MID TERM...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED
INITIALLY AS A VIGOROUS JET STREAK ROUNDS THE BASE OF AN EASTERN
CONUS TROUGH. THIS IS SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A MORE ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF BY FRIDAY. THIS PATTERN FAVORS WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL PLUMES OF WARM AIR ORIGINATING FROM THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST OVERSPREAD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGHS NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE SHOULD PREVAIL OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHICH SHOULD BE DRY.

IN THE LONG TERM...A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE SINKS SOUTH AND
PARKS ITSELF SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE HOWEVER PLACING THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT THIS JUNCTURE
IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE. WARM ADVECTION OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD
LINGER NEAR THE AREA FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING A STRONG SYSTEM EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WHICH WOULD EFFECTIVELY LIFT THE BOUNDARY NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT BEFORE A COLD FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE REGION MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK BRINGING AN END TO THE WARMER TEMPERATURES. DETAILS
CONCERNING THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME CLEARER IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD WITH WEST WINDS VEERING
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250531
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING OFF
NICELY AND SHOULD BE IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS
YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND
TEMPS HAVE WARMED FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 AROUND
TUPELO.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MIDSOUTH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY DESPITE A
PLENTY OF SUN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWS 30-35F.

WEDNESDAY...THAT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW FLAKES
COULD BE MIXED IN INITIALLY AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE AR/MO BOOTHEEL.
IT WILL BE BREEZY...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM ABOUT 50
NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BLOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING WITH AFTERNOON READINGS FROM
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE WILL BE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
STALLS INVOF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT MILDER WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD WITH WEST WINDS VEERING
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 250531
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1131 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING OFF
NICELY AND SHOULD BE IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS
YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND
TEMPS HAVE WARMED FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 AROUND
TUPELO.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MIDSOUTH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY DESPITE A
PLENTY OF SUN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWS 30-35F.

WEDNESDAY...THAT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW FLAKES
COULD BE MIXED IN INITIALLY AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE AR/MO BOOTHEEL.
IT WILL BE BREEZY...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM ABOUT 50
NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BLOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING WITH AFTERNOON READINGS FROM
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE WILL BE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
STALLS INVOF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT MILDER WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS TAF PERIOD WITH WEST WINDS VEERING
NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250149
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
749 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING OFF
NICELY AND SHOULD BE IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS
YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND
TEMPS HAVE WARMED FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 AROUND
TUPELO.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MIDSOUTH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY DESPITE A
PLENTY OF SUN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWS 30-35F.

WEDNESDAY...THAT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW FLAKES
COULD BE MIXED IN INITIALLY AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE AR/MO BOOTHEEL.
IT WILL BE BREEZY...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM ABOUT 50
NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BLOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING WITH AFTERNOON READINGS FROM
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE WILL BE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
STALLS INVOF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT MILDER WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WEATHER. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS VEERING NORTHWEST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250149
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
749 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED...TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING OFF
NICELY AND SHOULD BE IN THE 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA BY
MIDNIGHT MORNING LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS
YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND
TEMPS HAVE WARMED FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 AROUND
TUPELO.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MIDSOUTH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY DESPITE A
PLENTY OF SUN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWS 30-35F.

WEDNESDAY...THAT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW FLAKES
COULD BE MIXED IN INITIALLY AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE AR/MO BOOTHEEL.
IT WILL BE BREEZY...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM ABOUT 50
NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BLOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING WITH AFTERNOON READINGS FROM
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE WILL BE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
STALLS INVOF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT MILDER WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WEATHER. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS VEERING NORTHWEST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 242320
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
520 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS
YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND
TEMPS HAVE WARMED FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 AROUND
TUPELO.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MIDSOUTH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY DESPITE A
PLENTY OF SUN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWS 30-35F.

WEDNESDAY...THAT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW FLAKES
COULD BE MIXED IN INITIALLY AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE AR/MO BOOTHEEL.
IT WILL BE BREEZY...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM ABOUT 50
NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BLOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING WITH AFTERNOON READINGS FROM
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE WILL BE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
STALLS INVOF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT MILDER WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WEATHER. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS VEERING NORTHWEST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 242320
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
520 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS
YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND
TEMPS HAVE WARMED FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 AROUND
TUPELO.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MIDSOUTH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY DESPITE A
PLENTY OF SUN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWS 30-35F.

WEDNESDAY...THAT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW FLAKES
COULD BE MIXED IN INITIALLY AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE AR/MO BOOTHEEL.
IT WILL BE BREEZY...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM ABOUT 50
NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BLOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING WITH AFTERNOON READINGS FROM
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE WILL BE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
STALLS INVOF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT MILDER WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WEATHER. LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS VEERING NORTHWEST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 242114
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS
YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND
TEMPS HAVE WARMED FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 AROUND
TUPELO.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MIDSOUTH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY DESPITE A
PLENTY OF SUN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWS 30-35F.

WEDNESDAY...THAT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW FLAKES
COULD BE MIXED IN INITIALLY AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE AR/MO BOOTHEEL.
IT WILL BE BREEZY...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM ABOUT 50
NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BLOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING WITH AFTERNOON READINGS FROM
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE WILL BE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
STALLS INVOF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT MILDER WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

WEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTH THIS EVENING THEN TUESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL
SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.  TLSJR

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 242114
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS
YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND
TEMPS HAVE WARMED FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 AROUND
TUPELO.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MIDSOUTH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY DESPITE A
PLENTY OF SUN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWS 30-35F.

WEDNESDAY...THAT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW FLAKES
COULD BE MIXED IN INITIALLY AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE AR/MO BOOTHEEL.
IT WILL BE BREEZY...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM ABOUT 50
NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BLOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING WITH AFTERNOON READINGS FROM
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE WILL BE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
STALLS INVOF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT MILDER WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

WEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTH THIS EVENING THEN TUESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL
SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.  TLSJR

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 242114
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS
YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND
TEMPS HAVE WARMED FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 AROUND
TUPELO.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MIDSOUTH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY DESPITE A
PLENTY OF SUN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWS 30-35F.

WEDNESDAY...THAT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW FLAKES
COULD BE MIXED IN INITIALLY AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE AR/MO BOOTHEEL.
IT WILL BE BREEZY...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM ABOUT 50
NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BLOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING WITH AFTERNOON READINGS FROM
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE WILL BE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
STALLS INVOF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT MILDER WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

WEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTH THIS EVENING THEN TUESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL
SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.  TLSJR

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 242114
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ACROSS THE REGION AS
YESTERDAYS STORM SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OUT AND
TEMPS HAVE WARMED FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH TO NEAR 60 AROUND
TUPELO.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL
OVER THE MIDSOUTH. UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOWER TO MID 30S TONIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A COOL DAY DESPITE A
PLENTY OF SUN WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S. HIGH
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME INCREASE IN SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
TUESDAY NIGHT...LOWS 30-35F.

WEDNESDAY...THAT FAST MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL ROLL THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS MAY BRING A QUICK SHOT
OF PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW FLAKES
COULD BE MIXED IN INITIALLY AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE AR/MO BOOTHEEL.
IT WILL BE BREEZY...SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH HIGHS FROM ABOUT 50
NORTH TO UPPER 50S SOUTH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THANKSGIVING. TEMPS WILL BE
WELL BLOW NORMAL FOR THANKSGIVING WITH AFTERNOON READINGS FROM
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE WILL BE WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM
NORTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND
STALLS INVOF THE MIDSOUTH. EXPECT MILDER WEATHER AND CHANCES FOR
RAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

WEST WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL SHIFT
TOWARD THE SOUTH THIS EVENING THEN TUESDAY MORNING WINDS WILL
SHIFT TOWARD THE NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NEXT DAY OR SO.  TLSJR

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities