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000
FXUS64 KMEG 011132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
632 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANCES AT ALL WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT REMAINS A BIT WARM AFTER
MIDWEEK.

AT 3 AM THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT THIS POINT I WOULDN`T EXPECT MORE THAN ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OF COOLING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEST MISSOURI THINGS ARE MUCH MORE INTERESTING. A
LARGE MCS HAS DEVELOPED AND IN PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. WE
ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE. THEY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO SOMETIMES TAKE ON A LIFE OF THEIR OWN AND PERSIST MUCH
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS IT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE MIDSOUTH. EVEN IF
THAT IS THE CASE...REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TH MIDSOUTH..MAINLY IN THE NORTH TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS SOUTH...IT WILL LOSE ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO
DISSIPATING MAKES THE MOST SENSE AND THAT IS WHAT I WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON FOR NOW.

TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN NO-MANS LAND BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE IN A SUMMER LIKE HIGH INSTABILITY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT
THIS TIME I DO NOT THINK THE THREAT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANYTHING TO THE HWO. THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND AFTER MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER AFTER MIDWEEK. DID NOT CHANGE NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THEY LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT LOWER CEILINGS AT KMEM AND MVFR VISIBILITY AT KTUP SHOULD
NOT LAST TOO LONG THIS MORNING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FOUND FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 011132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
632 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANCES AT ALL WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT REMAINS A BIT WARM AFTER
MIDWEEK.

AT 3 AM THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT THIS POINT I WOULDN`T EXPECT MORE THAN ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OF COOLING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEST MISSOURI THINGS ARE MUCH MORE INTERESTING. A
LARGE MCS HAS DEVELOPED AND IN PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. WE
ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE. THEY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO SOMETIMES TAKE ON A LIFE OF THEIR OWN AND PERSIST MUCH
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS IT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE MIDSOUTH. EVEN IF
THAT IS THE CASE...REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TH MIDSOUTH..MAINLY IN THE NORTH TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS SOUTH...IT WILL LOSE ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO
DISSIPATING MAKES THE MOST SENSE AND THAT IS WHAT I WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON FOR NOW.

TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN NO-MANS LAND BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE IN A SUMMER LIKE HIGH INSTABILITY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT
THIS TIME I DO NOT THINK THE THREAT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANYTHING TO THE HWO. THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND AFTER MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER AFTER MIDWEEK. DID NOT CHANGE NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THEY LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT LOWER CEILINGS AT KMEM AND MVFR VISIBILITY AT KTUP SHOULD
NOT LAST TOO LONG THIS MORNING OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
FOUND FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM
THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 010858
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
358 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANCES AT ALL WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT REMAINS A BIT WARM AFTER
MIDWEEK.

AT 3 AM THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT THIS POINT I WOULDN`T EXPECT MORE THAN ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OF COOLING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEST MISSOURI THINGS ARE MUCH MORE INTERESTING. A
LARGE MCS HAS DEVELOPED AND IN PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. WE
ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE. THEY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO SOMETIMES TAKE ON A LIFE OF THEIR OWN AND PERSIST MUCH
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS IT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE MIDSOUTH. EVEN IF
THAT IS THE CASE...REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TH MIDSOUTH..MAINLY IN THE NORTH TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS SOUTH...IT WILL LOSE ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO
DISSIPATING MAKES THE MOST SENSE AND THAT IS WHAT I WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON FOR NOW.

TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN NO-MANS LAND BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE IN A SUMMER LIKE HIGH INSTABILITY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT
THIS TIME I DO NOT THINK THE THREAT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANYTHING TO THE HWO. THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND AFTER MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER AFTER MIDWEEK. DID NOT CHANGE NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THEY LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR REDUCTIONS AT KMKL AND KTUP IN EARLY MORNING
FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT RANGING FROM 6 KTS AT
KMKL AND KTUP TO 8 KTS AT KJBR.

DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GREATER
THAN 8 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WEST.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN SOUTHERLY. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 010858
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
358 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANCES AT ALL WITH THIS UPDATE. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY COOLER THROUGH MIDWEEK...BUT REMAINS A BIT WARM AFTER
MIDWEEK.

AT 3 AM THE RADAR IS QUIET ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S AND HAVE BEEN STEADY FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. AT THIS POINT I WOULDN`T EXPECT MORE THAN ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OF COOLING PRIOR TO SUNRISE. UPSTREAM ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO WEST MISSOURI THINGS ARE MUCH MORE INTERESTING. A
LARGE MCS HAS DEVELOPED AND IN PUSHING INTO CENTRAL MISSOURI. WE
ARE GOING TO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THIS FEATURE. THEY HAVE A
TENDENCY TO SOMETIMES TAKE ON A LIFE OF THEIR OWN AND PERSIST MUCH
LONGER THAN EXPECTED. NEVERTHELESS HIGH RESOLUTION SHORT TERM
GUIDANCE HAS IT DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE MIDSOUTH. EVEN IF
THAT IS THE CASE...REMNANT OUTFLOW COULD IMPACT THE WEATHER ACROSS
PORTIONS OF TH MIDSOUTH..MAINLY IN THE NORTH TODAY. AS THE SYSTEM
SHIFTS SOUTH...IT WILL LOSE ITS MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...SO
DISSIPATING MAKES THE MOST SENSE AND THAT IS WHAT I WILL BASE THE
FORECAST ON FOR NOW.

TODAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY AND WARMER...WE SHOULD SEE MOST AREAS
CLIMB INTO THE LOW 90S THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK RIDGE WILL BUILD
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH EARLY THIS WEEK AND A BROAD TROUGH WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST.
THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN NO-MANS LAND BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW
RESULTING IN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WE WILL BE IN A SUMMER LIKE HIGH INSTABILITY LOW SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT AT
THIS TIME I DO NOT THINK THE THREAT WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO ADD
ANYTHING TO THE HWO. THE RIDGE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
EXPAND AFTER MIDWEEK. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH SLIGHTLY DRYER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS WELL.
HOWEVER...EXPECT AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO
CONTINUE. STILL EXPECTING TO SEE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES TREND
COOLER AFTER MIDWEEK. DID NOT CHANGE NUMBERS FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AS THEY LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK...GENERALLY 2-4 DEGREES
BELOW GUIDANCE IN THE LOW 90S.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT...POSSIBLY STRONGER FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE WORKS LATE
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND COOLER FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR REDUCTIONS AT KMKL AND KTUP IN EARLY MORNING
FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT RANGING FROM 6 KTS AT
KMKL AND KTUP TO 8 KTS AT KJBR.

DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GREATER
THAN 8 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WEST.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN SOUTHERLY. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 010428
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE LATE EVENING RAIN CHANCES

DISCUSSION...

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN
EARLIER CONVECTION WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE REDUCED SHOWER
CHANCES TO SLIGHT ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE DRY WITH PATCHY
FOG LIKELY TO START FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEEKEND RAIN EVENT WAS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDAFTERNOON SUNDAY. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL
DRYING WEST OF THE MS RIVER...EDGING SLOWLY EAST WITH A MIDLEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
UNDER THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...BUT THE POSITION OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE PLAINS BETTER FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL.

A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LITTLE STRONGER THAN WE/VE
SEEN LATELY...THIS MAY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...
RECENT RAINFALL NOTWITHSTANDING.

MONDAY WILL SEE A RATHER STRONG TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH...MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY OVER
THE MIDSOUTH...NEAR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WITH THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET PROVIDING SUPPORT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NORTHERN FL INTO THE LOWER MS AND
TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND ISOLATED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
AS HAS BEEN THE PRACTICE THIS SUMMER...HAVE UNDERCUT DAYS 3 THROUGH
7 GFS MEX MOS DAYTIME TEMPS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES.

WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE SEASONALLY ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S...THE MID AND LATE WORKWEEK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED. GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER TROF THROUGH MUCH OF MIDDLE AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY.
COOLER TEMPS BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES NEXT SUNDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR REDUCTIONS AT KMKL AND KTUP IN EARLY MORNING
FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT RANGING FROM 6 KTS AT
KMKL AND KTUP TO 8 KTS AT KJBR.

DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GREATER
THAN 8 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WEST.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN SOUTHERLY. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 010428
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE LATE EVENING RAIN CHANCES

DISCUSSION...

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN
EARLIER CONVECTION WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE REDUCED SHOWER
CHANCES TO SLIGHT ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE DRY WITH PATCHY
FOG LIKELY TO START FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEEKEND RAIN EVENT WAS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDAFTERNOON SUNDAY. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL
DRYING WEST OF THE MS RIVER...EDGING SLOWLY EAST WITH A MIDLEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
UNDER THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...BUT THE POSITION OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE PLAINS BETTER FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL.

A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LITTLE STRONGER THAN WE/VE
SEEN LATELY...THIS MAY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...
RECENT RAINFALL NOTWITHSTANDING.

MONDAY WILL SEE A RATHER STRONG TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH...MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY OVER
THE MIDSOUTH...NEAR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WITH THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET PROVIDING SUPPORT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NORTHERN FL INTO THE LOWER MS AND
TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND ISOLATED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
AS HAS BEEN THE PRACTICE THIS SUMMER...HAVE UNDERCUT DAYS 3 THROUGH
7 GFS MEX MOS DAYTIME TEMPS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES.

WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE SEASONALLY ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S...THE MID AND LATE WORKWEEK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED. GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER TROF THROUGH MUCH OF MIDDLE AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY.
COOLER TEMPS BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES NEXT SUNDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE
SOME TEMPORARY MVFR REDUCTIONS AT KMKL AND KTUP IN EARLY MORNING
FOG. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY TONIGHT RANGING FROM 6 KTS AT
KMKL AND KTUP TO 8 KTS AT KJBR.

DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG WITH SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST GREATER
THAN 8 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WEST.

WINDS WILL DIMINISH MONDAY EVENING BUT REMAIN SOUTHERLY. SCATTERED
TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 010134
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
834 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE LATE EVENING RAIN CHANCES

&&

.DISCUSSION...

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN
EARLIER CONVECTION WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE REDUCED SHOWER
CHANCES TO SLIGHT ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE DRY WITH PATCHY
FOG LIKELY TO START FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE ARKLATEX WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE AS IT PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS
PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EAST ARKANSAS. NOT SURE YET IF ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT OVER THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS AND SKY
COVER FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEEKEND RAIN EVENT WAS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDAFTERNOON SUNDAY. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL
DRYING WEST OF THE MS RIVER...EDGING SLOWLY EAST WITH A MIDLEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
UNDER THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...BUT THE POSITION OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE PLAINS BETTER FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL.

A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LITTLE STRONGER THAN WE/VE
SEEN LATELY...THIS MAY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...
RECENT RAINFALL NOTWITHSTANDING.

MONDAY WILL SEE A RATHER STRONG TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH...MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY OVER
THE MIDSOUTH...NEAR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WITH THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET PROVIDING SUPPORT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NORTHERN FL INTO THE LOWER MS AND
TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND ISOLATED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
AS HAS BEEN THE PRACTICE THIS SUMMER...HAVE UNDERCUT DAYS 3 THROUGH
7 GFS MEX MOS DAYTIME TEMPS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES.

WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE SEASONALLY ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S...THE MID AND LATE WORKWEEK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED. GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER TROF THROUGH MUCH OF MIDDLE AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY.
COOLER TEMPS BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES NEXT SUNDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTH AT 6-8 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING WITH WEAKENING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SITES OF KMKL AND KTUP. THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT MAY LOCALLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AT THESE LOCATIONS.

SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES ON MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 010134
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
834 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE LATE EVENING RAIN CHANCES

&&

.DISCUSSION...

APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHERN ARKANSAS NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN
EARLIER CONVECTION WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE REDUCED SHOWER
CHANCES TO SLIGHT ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH MIDNIGHT.
OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE DRY WITH PATCHY
FOG LIKELY TO START FORMING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE ARKLATEX WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE AS IT PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS
PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EAST ARKANSAS. NOT SURE YET IF ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT OVER THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS AND SKY
COVER FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

JAB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEEKEND RAIN EVENT WAS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDAFTERNOON SUNDAY. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL
DRYING WEST OF THE MS RIVER...EDGING SLOWLY EAST WITH A MIDLEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
UNDER THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...BUT THE POSITION OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE PLAINS BETTER FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL.

A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LITTLE STRONGER THAN WE/VE
SEEN LATELY...THIS MAY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...
RECENT RAINFALL NOTWITHSTANDING.

MONDAY WILL SEE A RATHER STRONG TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH...MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY OVER
THE MIDSOUTH...NEAR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WITH THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET PROVIDING SUPPORT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NORTHERN FL INTO THE LOWER MS AND
TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND ISOLATED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
AS HAS BEEN THE PRACTICE THIS SUMMER...HAVE UNDERCUT DAYS 3 THROUGH
7 GFS MEX MOS DAYTIME TEMPS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES.

WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE SEASONALLY ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S...THE MID AND LATE WORKWEEK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED. GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER TROF THROUGH MUCH OF MIDDLE AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY.
COOLER TEMPS BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES NEXT SUNDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTH AT 6-8 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING WITH WEAKENING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SITES OF KMKL AND KTUP. THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT MAY LOCALLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AT THESE LOCATIONS.

SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES ON MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 312336
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE ARKLATEX WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE AS IT PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS
PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EAST ARKANSAS. NOT SURE YET IF ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT OVER THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS AND SKY
COVER FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEEKEND RAIN EVENT WAS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDAFTERNOON SUNDAY. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL
DRYING WEST OF THE MS RIVER...EDGING SLOWLY EAST WITH A MIDLEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
UNDER THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...BUT THE POSITION OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE PLAINS BETTER FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL.

A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LITTLE STRONGER THAN WE/VE
SEEN LATELY...THIS MAY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...
RECENT RAINFALL NOTWITHSTANDING.

MONDAY WILL SEE A RATHER STRONG TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH...MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY OVER
THE MIDSOUTH...NEAR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WITH THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET PROVIDING SUPPORT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NORTHERN FL INTO THE LOWER MS AND
TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND ISOLATED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
AS HAS BEEN THE PRACTICE THIS SUMMER...HAVE UNDERCUT DAYS 3 THROUGH
7 GFS MEX MOS DAYTIME TEMPS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES.

WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE SEASONALLY ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S...THE MID AND LATE WORKWEEK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED. GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER TROF THROUGH MUCH OF MIDDLE AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY.
COOLER TEMPS BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES NEXT SUNDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTH AT 6-8 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING WITH WEAKENING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SITES OF KMKL AND KTUP. THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT MAY LOCALLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AT THESE LOCATIONS.

SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES ON MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 312336
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
636 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 618 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE ARKLATEX WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE AS IT PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS
PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EAST ARKANSAS. NOT SURE YET IF ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT OVER THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS AND SKY
COVER FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEEKEND RAIN EVENT WAS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDAFTERNOON SUNDAY. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL
DRYING WEST OF THE MS RIVER...EDGING SLOWLY EAST WITH A MIDLEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
UNDER THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...BUT THE POSITION OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE PLAINS BETTER FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL.

A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LITTLE STRONGER THAN WE/VE
SEEN LATELY...THIS MAY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...
RECENT RAINFALL NOTWITHSTANDING.

MONDAY WILL SEE A RATHER STRONG TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH...MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY OVER
THE MIDSOUTH...NEAR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WITH THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET PROVIDING SUPPORT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NORTHERN FL INTO THE LOWER MS AND
TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND ISOLATED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
AS HAS BEEN THE PRACTICE THIS SUMMER...HAVE UNDERCUT DAYS 3 THROUGH
7 GFS MEX MOS DAYTIME TEMPS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES.

WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE SEASONALLY ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S...THE MID AND LATE WORKWEEK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED. GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER TROF THROUGH MUCH OF MIDDLE AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY.
COOLER TEMPS BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES NEXT SUNDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS THIS
EVENING AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE SOUTH AT 6-8 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING.

SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT LATER THIS EVENING WITH WEAKENING
WINDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN SITES OF KMKL AND KTUP. THERE
MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG THAT MAY LOCALLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AT THESE LOCATIONS.

SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG WITH HIGH CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED
AT ALL SITES ON MONDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND VFR CIGS/VSBYS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE MORNING MONDAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOME GUSTS POSSIBLE.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 312318
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE ARKLATEX WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE AS IT PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS
PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EAST ARKANSAS. NOT SURE YET IF ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT OVER THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS AND SKY
COVER FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEEKEND RAIN EVENT WAS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDAFTERNOON SUNDAY. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL
DRYING WEST OF THE MS RIVER...EDGING SLOWLY EAST WITH A MIDLEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
UNDER THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...BUT THE POSITION OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE PLAINS BETTER FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL.

A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LITTLE STRONGER THAN WE/VE
SEEN LATELY...THIS MAY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...
RECENT RAINFALL NOTWITHSTANDING.

MONDAY WILL SEE A RATHER STRONG TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH...MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY OVER
THE MIDSOUTH...NEAR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WITH THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET PROVIDING SUPPORT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NORTHERN FL INTO THE LOWER MS AND
TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND ISOLATED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
AS HAS BEEN THE PRACTICE THIS SUMMER...HAVE UNDERCUT DAYS 3 THROUGH
7 GFS MEX MOS DAYTIME TEMPS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES.

WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE SEASONALLY ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S...THE MID AND LATE WORKWEEK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED. GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER TROF THROUGH MUCH OF MIDDLE AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY.
COOLER TEMPS BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES NEXT SUNDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR TO BEGIN THE CYCLE AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP WITH LOWER CIGS
AS SHOWERS LINGER AROUND THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
CIGS BEFORE 01/00Z. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CAT VSBYS OVERNIGHT
AS MOIST SURFACES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG
FORMATION AT KMKL AND KTUP. WINDS WILL BE NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 10
KTS TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KJBR...WITH INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 312318
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR RAIN CHANCES THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORTWAVE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE ARKLATEX WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CONVECTION HAS EXPANDED IN COVERAGE OVER
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED IN NATURE AS IT PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE I-40 CORRIDOR.
BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND ACROSS
PHILLIPS COUNTY IN EAST ARKANSAS. NOT SURE YET IF ACTIVITY WILL
LINGER PAST MIDNIGHT OVER THE AREA. HAVE ADJUSTED THE POPS AND SKY
COVER FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING FORECAST
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WEEKEND RAIN EVENT WAS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDAFTERNOON SUNDAY. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL
DRYING WEST OF THE MS RIVER...EDGING SLOWLY EAST WITH A MIDLEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
UNDER THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...BUT THE POSITION OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE PLAINS BETTER FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL.

A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LITTLE STRONGER THAN WE/VE
SEEN LATELY...THIS MAY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...
RECENT RAINFALL NOTWITHSTANDING.

MONDAY WILL SEE A RATHER STRONG TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH...MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY OVER
THE MIDSOUTH...NEAR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WITH THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET PROVIDING SUPPORT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NORTHERN FL INTO THE LOWER MS AND
TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND ISOLATED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
AS HAS BEEN THE PRACTICE THIS SUMMER...HAVE UNDERCUT DAYS 3 THROUGH
7 GFS MEX MOS DAYTIME TEMPS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES.

WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE SEASONALLY ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S...THE MID AND LATE WORKWEEK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED. GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER TROF THROUGH MUCH OF MIDDLE AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY.
COOLER TEMPS BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES NEXT SUNDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR TO BEGIN THE CYCLE AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP WITH LOWER CIGS
AS SHOWERS LINGER AROUND THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
CIGS BEFORE 01/00Z. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CAT VSBYS OVERNIGHT
AS MOIST SURFACES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG
FORMATION AT KMKL AND KTUP. WINDS WILL BE NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 10
KTS TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KJBR...WITH INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 311958
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
258 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WEEKEND RAIN EVENT WAS WINDING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT
MIDAFTERNOON SUNDAY. GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED MIDLEVEL
DRYING WEST OF THE MS RIVER...EDGING SLOWLY EAST WITH A MIDLEVEL
SHEAR AXIS. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
UNDER THE MIDLEVEL DRY SLOT...BUT THE POSITION OF AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE FROM THE PLAINS BETTER FAVORS THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST MO AND SOUTHERN IL.

A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG WAS ADDED TO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. NOCTURNAL
LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE LITTLE STRONGER THAN WE/VE
SEEN LATELY...THIS MAY PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT...
RECENT RAINFALL NOTWITHSTANDING.

MONDAY WILL SEE A RATHER STRONG TROF LIFTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. WEAK ZONAL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE MIDSOUTH...MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A REDUCTION IN
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING CONVECTIVE DESTABILIZATION TUESDAY OVER
THE MIDSOUTH...NEAR A WEAK SURFACE FRONT AND WITH THE RIGHT REAR
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET PROVIDING SUPPORT DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NORTHERN FL INTO THE LOWER MS AND
TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
THE UPPER RIDGE...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ATTAINABLE
CONVECTIVE TEMPS AND ISOLATED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
AS HAS BEEN THE PRACTICE THIS SUMMER...HAVE UNDERCUT DAYS 3 THROUGH
7 GFS MEX MOS DAYTIME TEMPS BY 2 TO 4 DEGREES.

WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE SEASONALLY ACTIVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S...THE MID AND LATE WORKWEEK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE SHORT LIVED. GFS AND ECMWF BRING
ANOTHER TROF THROUGH MUCH OF MIDDLE AND NORTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY
LATE FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING NORTHWEST MIDLEVEL
FLOW AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH ON SATURDAY.
COOLER TEMPS BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN APPEAR IN STORE FOR SATURDAY...
FOLLOWED BY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES AND LOWER HUMIDITIES NEXT SUNDAY.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR TO BEGIN THE CYCLE AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP WITH LOWER CIGS
AS SHOWERS LINGER AROUND THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
CIGS BEFORE 01/00Z. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CAT VSBYS OVERNIGHT
AS MOIST SURFACES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG
FORMATION AT KMKL AND KTUP. WINDS WILL BE NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 10
KTS TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KJBR...WITH INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 311733
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1233 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...MAINLY IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE
OVERALL RAIN SHIELD IS GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE EAST WHILE
INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS ARE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LAST DAY OF
AUGUST WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE REGION DRY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW MUCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH AFTER THE RAIN SHOWERS COME TO AN
END. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO
THE MIDDLE 80S...WHILE PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED COULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES. WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...A DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...LIKELY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.IT LOOKS LIKE IT WAS A GOOD CALL UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK A BIT TOO
WARM AFTER MIDWEEK...SO WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF THE RIDGE LIMITING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH NO PARTICULAR DAY ON WHICH STORMS LOOK
PARTICULARLY MORE LIKELY. LOOK FOR 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR TO BEGIN THE CYCLE AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP WITH LOWER CIGS
AS SHOWERS LINGER AROUND THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
CIGS BEFORE 01/00Z. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CAT VSBYS OVERNIGHT
AS MOIST SURFACES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG
FORMATION AT KMKL AND KTUP. WINDS WILL BE NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 10
KTS TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KJBR...WITH INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 311733
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1233 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...MAINLY IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE
OVERALL RAIN SHIELD IS GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE EAST WHILE
INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS ARE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LAST DAY OF
AUGUST WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE REGION DRY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW MUCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH AFTER THE RAIN SHOWERS COME TO AN
END. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO
THE MIDDLE 80S...WHILE PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED COULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES. WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...A DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...LIKELY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.IT LOOKS LIKE IT WAS A GOOD CALL UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK A BIT TOO
WARM AFTER MIDWEEK...SO WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF THE RIDGE LIMITING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH NO PARTICULAR DAY ON WHICH STORMS LOOK
PARTICULARLY MORE LIKELY. LOOK FOR 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR TO BEGIN THE CYCLE AT KMEM...KMKL...AND KTUP WITH LOWER CIGS
AS SHOWERS LINGER AROUND THE AREA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
CIGS BEFORE 01/00Z. INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR CAT VSBYS OVERNIGHT
AS MOIST SURFACES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO FOG
FORMATION AT KMKL AND KTUP. WINDS WILL BE NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 10
KTS TOMORROW...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE AT KJBR...WITH INCREASING
PRESSURE GRADIENT.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 311131
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...MAINLY IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE
OVERALL RAIN SHIELD IS GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE EAST WHILE
INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS ARE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LAST DAY OF
AUGUST WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE REGION DRY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW MUCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH AFTER THE RAIN SHOWERS COME TO AN
END. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO
THE MIDDLE 80S...WHILE PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED COULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES. WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...A DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...LIKELY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.IT LOOKS LIKE IT WAS A GOOD CALL UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK A BIT TOO
WARM AFTER MIDWEEK...SO WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF THE RIDGE LIMITING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH NO PARTICULAR DAY ON WHICH STORMS LOOK
PARTICULARLY MORE LIKELY. LOOK FOR 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT IFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 311131
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...MAINLY IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE
OVERALL RAIN SHIELD IS GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE EAST WHILE
INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS ARE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LAST DAY OF
AUGUST WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE REGION DRY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW MUCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH AFTER THE RAIN SHOWERS COME TO AN
END. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO
THE MIDDLE 80S...WHILE PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED COULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES. WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...A DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...LIKELY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.IT LOOKS LIKE IT WAS A GOOD CALL UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK A BIT TOO
WARM AFTER MIDWEEK...SO WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF THE RIDGE LIMITING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH NO PARTICULAR DAY ON WHICH STORMS LOOK
PARTICULARLY MORE LIKELY. LOOK FOR 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENT IFR CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE DURING THE DAY WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THIS MORNING WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO RETURN BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 310900
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...MAINLY IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE
OVERALL RAIN SHIELD IS GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE EAST WHILE
INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS ARE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LAST DAY OF
AUGUST WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE REGION DRY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW MUCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH AFTER THE RAIN SHOWERS COME TO AN
END. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO
THE MIDDLE 80S...WHILE PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED COULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES. WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...A DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...LIKELY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.IT LOOKS LIKE IT WAS A GOOD CALL UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK A BIT TOO
WARM AFTER MIDWEEK...SO WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF THE RIDGE LIMITING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH NO PARTICULAR DAY ON WHICH STORMS LOOK
PARTICULARLY MORE LIKELY. LOOK FOR 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT
KJBR. SOME LIFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP AS WELL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON REMAINING AT KMKL AND KTUP. MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTUP WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND
INCREASE TO 12 KTS OR GREATER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END SUNDAY EVENING WITH MAINLY SOME LEFT OVER
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS AREAWIDE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 7 KTS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 310900
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...MAINLY IN WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE
OVERALL RAIN SHIELD IS GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE EAST WHILE
INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS ARE TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LAST DAY OF
AUGUST WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL. RAIN SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END
FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH MUCH OF THE REGION DRY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HOW MUCH SUNSHINE BREAKS THROUGH AFTER THE RAIN SHOWERS COME TO AN
END. PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER MAY STRUGGLE TO GET INTO
THE MIDDLE 80S...WHILE PORTIONS OF EAST ARKANSAS WHERE MORE
SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED COULD APPROACH 90 DEGREES. WILL LEAN TOWARDS
THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY.

SYNOPTICALLY...A DEAMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG INTO THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY INTO MIDWEEK...LIKELY STALLING ACROSS THE AREA MIDWEEK.
GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE HOT TEMPERATURES EARLY
NEXT WEEK.IT LOOKS LIKE IT WAS A GOOD CALL UNDERCUTTING GUIDANCE
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK A BIT TOO
WARM AFTER MIDWEEK...SO WILL CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE DURING
THAT TIME FRAME. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A RIDGE WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. WE WILL BE ON THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF THE RIDGE LIMITING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST
EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH NO PARTICULAR DAY ON WHICH STORMS LOOK
PARTICULARLY MORE LIKELY. LOOK FOR 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT
KJBR. SOME LIFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP AS WELL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON REMAINING AT KMKL AND KTUP. MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTUP WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND
INCREASE TO 12 KTS OR GREATER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END SUNDAY EVENING WITH MAINLY SOME LEFT OVER
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS AREAWIDE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 7 KTS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 310444
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH
COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT/PRECIPITATION NEAR THE MS RIVER...AND THIS APPARENT
LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO
HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES WEST OF A MARIANNA ARKANSAS TO A UNION
CITY TENNESSEE LINE. IN ADDITION...NOT SOLD ON THE OVERNIGHT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WELL
WORKED OVER...SO REDUCED THUNDER TO JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE.
LASTLY...REDUCED EVENING TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE REFLECTIVE OF THE
CURRENT 6 PM READINGS.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PRODUCED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
TODAY. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAVE
RESULTED IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID SOUTH WITH MUCH NEEDED RAIN. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM
CDT VARY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALREADY AND LOWER 80S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TIME...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY AND 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY BUT NOW SUGGEST A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY AND MEANDER
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES
UPWARD ACCORDINGLY TO SCATTERED COVERAGE GIVEN THESE TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT
KJBR. SOME LIFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP AS WELL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON REMAINING AT KMKL AND KTUP. MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTUP WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND
INCREASE TO 12 KTS OR GREATER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END SUNDAY EVENING WITH MAINLY SOME LEFT OVER
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS AREAWIDE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 7 KTS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 310444
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH
COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT/PRECIPITATION NEAR THE MS RIVER...AND THIS APPARENT
LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO
HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES WEST OF A MARIANNA ARKANSAS TO A UNION
CITY TENNESSEE LINE. IN ADDITION...NOT SOLD ON THE OVERNIGHT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WELL
WORKED OVER...SO REDUCED THUNDER TO JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE.
LASTLY...REDUCED EVENING TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE REFLECTIVE OF THE
CURRENT 6 PM READINGS.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PRODUCED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
TODAY. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAVE
RESULTED IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID SOUTH WITH MUCH NEEDED RAIN. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM
CDT VARY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALREADY AND LOWER 80S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TIME...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY AND 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY BUT NOW SUGGEST A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY AND MEANDER
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES
UPWARD ACCORDINGLY TO SCATTERED COVERAGE GIVEN THESE TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE IN ALL AREAS EXCEPT
KJBR. SOME LIFR CIGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP AS WELL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON REMAINING AT KMKL AND KTUP. MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTUP WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND
INCREASE TO 12 KTS OR GREATER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

RAIN CHANCES WILL END SUNDAY EVENING WITH MAINLY SOME LEFT OVER
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS BUT VFR CIGS AND VSBYS AREAWIDE.
SOUTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 7 KTS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 310029
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
729 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH
COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT/PRECIPITATION NEAR THE MS RIVER...AND THIS APPARENT
LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO
HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES WEST OF A MARIANNA ARKANSAS TO A UNION
CITY TENNESSEE LINE. IN ADDITION...NOT SOLD ON THE OVERNIGHT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WELL
WORKED OVER...SO REDUCED THUNDER TO JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE.
LASTLY...REDUCED EVENING TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE REFLECTIVE OF THE
CURRENT 6 PM READINGS.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PRODUCED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
TODAY. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAVE
RESULTED IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID SOUTH WITH MUCH NEEDED RAIN. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM
CDT VARY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALREADY AND LOWER 80S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TIME...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY AND 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY BUT NOW SUGGEST A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY AND MEANDER
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES
UPWARD ACCORDINGLY TO SCATTERED COVERAGE GIVEN THESE TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING AT KMEM...KMKL...AND
KTUP. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AT KJBR AS
MUCH OF THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAIN FURTHER TO THE EAST.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 KTS LATER
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

IFR CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT KJBR.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON REMAINING AT KMKL AND KTUP. MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTUP WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND
INCREASE TO 12 KTS OR GREATER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 310029
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
729 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 626 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH
COUNTIES.

DISCUSSION...

RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT/PRECIPITATION NEAR THE MS RIVER...AND THIS APPARENT
LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO
HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES WEST OF A MARIANNA ARKANSAS TO A UNION
CITY TENNESSEE LINE. IN ADDITION...NOT SOLD ON THE OVERNIGHT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WELL
WORKED OVER...SO REDUCED THUNDER TO JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE.
LASTLY...REDUCED EVENING TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE REFLECTIVE OF THE
CURRENT 6 PM READINGS.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PRODUCED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
TODAY. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAVE
RESULTED IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID SOUTH WITH MUCH NEEDED RAIN. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM
CDT VARY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALREADY AND LOWER 80S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TIME...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY AND 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY BUT NOW SUGGEST A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY AND MEANDER
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES
UPWARD ACCORDINGLY TO SCATTERED COVERAGE GIVEN THESE TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD LOWER TO MVFR QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH
RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING AT KMEM...KMKL...AND
KTUP. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT AT KJBR AS
MUCH OF THE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE REMAIN FURTHER TO THE EAST.
SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING TO AROUND 10 KTS LATER
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

IFR CIGS SHOULD EVENTUALLY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT KJBR.

RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT EAST ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES THROUGH AFTERNOON REMAINING AT KMKL AND KTUP. MVFR AND
EVENTUALLY VFR CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST AREAS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KTUP WHERE MVFR CIGS SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AND
INCREASE TO 12 KTS OR GREATER BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 302326
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REDUCE RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH
COUNTIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

RADAR TRENDS SHOWING A DISTINCT BACK EDGE TO THE WARM AIR
CONVEYOR BELT/PRECIPITATION NEAR THE MS RIVER...AND THIS APPARENT
LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SO
HAVE REDUCED RAIN CHANCES WEST OF A MARIANNA ARKANSAS TO A UNION
CITY TENNESSEE LINE. IN ADDITION...NOT SOLD ON THE OVERNIGHT
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WELL
WORKED OVER...SO REDUCED THUNDER TO JUST ISOLATED COVERAGE.
LASTLY...REDUCED EVENING TEMPERATURES TO BE MORE REFLECTIVE OF THE
CURRENT 6 PM READINGS.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PRODUCED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
TODAY. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAVE
RESULTED IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID SOUTH WITH MUCH NEEDED RAIN. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM
CDT VARY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALREADY AND LOWER 80S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

SHORT TIME...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY AND 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY BUT NOW SUGGEST A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY AND MEANDER
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES
UPWARD ACCORDINGLY TO SCATTERED COVERAGE GIVEN THESE TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

A CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT ON KNQA RADAR IMAGERY...AROUND 50 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MEM AT 1745Z... MOVING NORTHEAST. BEST TS CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE. NORTH
MS... INCLUDING TUP... WILL BE UNDER A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MARINE WARM FRONT. MEM WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE BEST AFTERNOON TS POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO PULL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TS
FROM THE MEM TAF.

SECOND MIDLEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH MIDSOUTH TERMINALS DURING THE
09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. JBR WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LEAST FAVORED
POSITION FOR TS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE. IN
ANY CASE...MVFR/IFR WILL BE A GOOD BET AREAWIDE...GIVEN A SECONDARY
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 302042
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
342 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PRODUCED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
TODAY. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAVE
RESULTED IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID SOUTH WITH MUCH NEEDED RAIN. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM
CDT VARY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALREADY AND LOWER 80S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TIME...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY AND 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY BUT NOW SUGGEST A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY AND MEANDER
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES
UPWARD ACCORDINGLY TO SCATTERED COVERAGE GIVEN THESE TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

A CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT ON KNQA RADAR IMAGERY...AROUND 50 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MEM AT 1745Z... MOVING NORTHEAST. BEST TS CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE. NORTH
MS... INCLUDING TUP... WILL BE UNDER A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MARINE WARM FRONT. MEM WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE BEST AFTERNOON TS POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO PULL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TS
FROM THE MEM TAF.

SECOND MIDLEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH MIDSOUTH TERMINALS DURING THE
09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. JBR WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LEAST FAVORED
POSITION FOR TS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE. IN
ANY CASE...MVFR/IFR WILL BE A GOOD BET AREAWIDE...GIVEN A SECONDARY
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 302042
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
342 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
THIS AFTERNOON PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MINNESOTA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STRETCHING FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT
OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS PRODUCED PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S
TODAY. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAVE
RESULTED IN GOOD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE MID SOUTH WITH MUCH NEEDED RAIN. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM
CDT VARY ACROSS MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
READINGS IN THE 70S WHERE RAIN HAS OCCURRED ALREADY AND LOWER 80S
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
IS THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TIME...(TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING ALONG AND EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY DECREASING LATER
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT BEGINS TO WEAKEN.
LOWS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH
HIGHS IN THE 80S ON SUNDAY AND 80S TO LOWER 90S ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY BUT NOW SUGGEST A
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY AND MEANDER
BACK NORTH BY WEDNESDAY. CONSEQUENTLY...ADJUSTED RAIN CHANCES
UPWARD ACCORDINGLY TO SCATTERED COVERAGE GIVEN THESE TRENDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TO THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE
LATER IN THE WEEK WITH RAIN CHANCES BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN
COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

A CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT ON KNQA RADAR IMAGERY...AROUND 50 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MEM AT 1745Z... MOVING NORTHEAST. BEST TS CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE. NORTH
MS... INCLUDING TUP... WILL BE UNDER A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MARINE WARM FRONT. MEM WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE BEST AFTERNOON TS POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO PULL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TS
FROM THE MEM TAF.

SECOND MIDLEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH MIDSOUTH TERMINALS DURING THE
09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. JBR WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LEAST FAVORED
POSITION FOR TS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE. IN
ANY CASE...MVFR/IFR WILL BE A GOOD BET AREAWIDE...GIVEN A SECONDARY
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 301754 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...RESULTING IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION AND INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MOVES UP
INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR TONIGHT MAINLY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF
COOLING IS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE.

GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RIDGING DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT
OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER
2.25 INCHES...UP TO 2.55 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS
YESTERDAY HELP SUBSTANTIATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. PORTIONS
OF EAST ARKANSAS RECEIVED WELL OVER TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
HODOGRAPHS ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGH. WILL ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES TO THE
HWO. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1.25
INCHES ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES LIKELY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY. RAIN...CLOUDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT
WARMER READINGS WILL RETURN MONDAY. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM NEXT WEEK. AS STATED
EARLIER...GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE BULLISH BUILDING IN THE RIDGE
NEXT WEEK. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY....BUT STILL LEANING
TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. FOR NOW...ADVERTISING HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
BELOW THE MIDDLE 90S IN GUIDANCE OUTPUT.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

A CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT ON KNQA RADAR IMAGERY...AROUND 50 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MEM AT 1745Z... MOVING NORTHEAST. BEST TS CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE. NORTH
MS... INCLUDING TUP... WILL BE UNDER A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MARINE WARM FRONT. MEM WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE BEST AFTERNOON TS POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO PULL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TS
FROM THE MEM TAF.

SECOND MIDLEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH MIDSOUTH TERMINALS DURING THE
09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. JBR WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LEAST FAVORED
POSITION FOR TS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE. IN
ANY CASE...MVFR/IFR WILL BE A GOOD BET AREAWIDE...GIVEN A SECONDARY
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 301754 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1254 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...RESULTING IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION AND INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MOVES UP
INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR TONIGHT MAINLY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF
COOLING IS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE.

GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RIDGING DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT
OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER
2.25 INCHES...UP TO 2.55 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS
YESTERDAY HELP SUBSTANTIATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. PORTIONS
OF EAST ARKANSAS RECEIVED WELL OVER TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
HODOGRAPHS ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGH. WILL ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES TO THE
HWO. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1.25
INCHES ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES LIKELY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY. RAIN...CLOUDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT
WARMER READINGS WILL RETURN MONDAY. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM NEXT WEEK. AS STATED
EARLIER...GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE BULLISH BUILDING IN THE RIDGE
NEXT WEEK. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY....BUT STILL LEANING
TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. FOR NOW...ADVERTISING HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
BELOW THE MIDDLE 90S IN GUIDANCE OUTPUT.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

A CIRCULATION WAS EVIDENT ON KNQA RADAR IMAGERY...AROUND 50 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MEM AT 1745Z... MOVING NORTHEAST. BEST TS CHANCES
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THIS FEATURE. NORTH
MS... INCLUDING TUP... WILL BE UNDER A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MARINE WARM FRONT. MEM WILL BE NEAR THE
NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE BEST AFTERNOON TS POTENTIAL. WILL MONITOR
CONDITIONS CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO PULL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TS
FROM THE MEM TAF.

SECOND MIDLEVEL WAVE WILL APPROACH MIDSOUTH TERMINALS DURING THE
09Z TO 12Z TIME FRAME. JBR WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LEAST FAVORED
POSITION FOR TS WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE MIDLEVEL WAVE. IN
ANY CASE...MVFR/IFR WILL BE A GOOD BET AREAWIDE...GIVEN A SECONDARY
WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTING INTO THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE OVERNIGHT.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 301538
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...RESULTING IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION AND INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MOVES UP
INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR TONIGHT MAINLY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF
COOLING IS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE.

GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RIDGING DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT
OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER
2.25 INCHES...UP TO 2.55 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS
YESTERDAY HELP SUBSTANTIATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. PORTIONS
OF EAST ARKANSAS RECEIVED WELL OVER TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
HODOGRAPHS ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGH. WILL ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES TO THE
HWO. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1.25
INCHES ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES LIKELY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY. RAIN...CLOUDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT
WARMER READINGS WILL RETURN MONDAY. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM NEXT WEEK. AS STATED
EARLIER...GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE BULLISH BUILDING IN THE RIDGE
NEXT WEEK. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY....BUT STILL LEANING
TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. FOR NOW...ADVERTISING HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
BELOW THE MIDDLE 90S IN GUIDANCE OUTPUT.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 301538
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1038 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
PLACE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. A WARM CONVEYOR BELT OF MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO IS PRESENT ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...RESULTING IN HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS THE
REGION AND INCREASING SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 70S.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI MOVES UP
INTO THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL MAKE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST OVERALL IS IN GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR TONIGHT MAINLY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF
COOLING IS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE.

GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RIDGING DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT
OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER
2.25 INCHES...UP TO 2.55 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS
YESTERDAY HELP SUBSTANTIATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. PORTIONS
OF EAST ARKANSAS RECEIVED WELL OVER TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
HODOGRAPHS ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGH. WILL ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES TO THE
HWO. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1.25
INCHES ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES LIKELY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY. RAIN...CLOUDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT
WARMER READINGS WILL RETURN MONDAY. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM NEXT WEEK. AS STATED
EARLIER...GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE BULLISH BUILDING IN THE RIDGE
NEXT WEEK. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY....BUT STILL LEANING
TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. FOR NOW...ADVERTISING HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
BELOW THE MIDDLE 90S IN GUIDANCE OUTPUT.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 301129
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR TONIGHT MAINLY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF
COOLING IS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE.

GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RIDGING DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT
OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER
2.25 INCHES...UP TO 2.55 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS
YESTERDAY HELP SUBSTANTIATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. PORTIONS
OF EAST ARKANSAS RECEIVED WELL OVER TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
HODOGRAPHS ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGH. WILL ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES TO THE
HWO. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1.25
INCHES ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES LIKELY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY. RAIN...CLOUDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT
WARMER READINGS WILL RETURN MONDAY. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM NEXT WEEK. AS STATED
EARLIER...GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE BULLISH BUILDING IN THE RIDGE
NEXT WEEK. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY....BUT STILL LEANING
TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. FOR NOW...ADVERTISING HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
BELOW THE MIDDLE 90S IN GUIDANCE OUTPUT.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 301129
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR TONIGHT MAINLY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF
COOLING IS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE.

GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RIDGING DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT
OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER
2.25 INCHES...UP TO 2.55 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS
YESTERDAY HELP SUBSTANTIATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. PORTIONS
OF EAST ARKANSAS RECEIVED WELL OVER TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
HODOGRAPHS ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGH. WILL ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES TO THE
HWO. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1.25
INCHES ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES LIKELY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY. RAIN...CLOUDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT
WARMER READINGS WILL RETURN MONDAY. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM NEXT WEEK. AS STATED
EARLIER...GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE BULLISH BUILDING IN THE RIDGE
NEXT WEEK. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY....BUT STILL LEANING
TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. FOR NOW...ADVERTISING HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
BELOW THE MIDDLE 90S IN GUIDANCE OUTPUT.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY WITH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT AND MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTH THIS MORNING AND SLOWLY INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 300917
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR TONIGHT MAINLY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF
COOLING IS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE.

GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RIDGING DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT
OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER
2.25 INCHES...UP TO 2.55 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS
YESTERDAY HELP SUBSTANTIATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. PORTIONS
OF EAST ARKANSAS RECEIVED WELL OVER TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
HODOGRAPHS ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGH. WILL ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES TO THE
HWO. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1.25
INCHES ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES LIKELY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY. RAIN...CLOUDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT
WARMER READINGS WILL RETURN MONDAY. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM NEXT WEEK. AS STATED
EARLIER...GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE BULLISH BUILDING IN THE RIDGE
NEXT WEEK. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY....BUT STILL LEANING
TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. FOR NOW...ADVERTISING HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
BELOW THE MIDDLE 90S IN GUIDANCE OUTPUT.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KJBR AND KMEM AND THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AT 7 KTS OR LESS.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES ON
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR
REDUCTIONS AT TIMES WITH CONVECTION...BUT TIMING THOSE OCCURENCES
THIS FAR OUT REMAINS DIFFICULT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
BUT INCREASE IN SPEEDS TO GREATER THAN 8 KTS AT ALL SITES WITH 10
KTS OR GREATER LIKELY AT KMEM AND KJBR BY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT 8 KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 300917
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE RADAR TONIGHT MAINLY TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST...BUT COVERAGE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM ARE
IN THE MIDDLE 70S UNDER CLOUDY SKIES. ONLY ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF
COOLING IS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE.

GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON THE RIDGING DURING THE
UPCOMING WORK WEEK RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...BUT
OVERALL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THIS FORECAST UPDATE.

STILL A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. MODEL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE OVER
2.25 INCHES...UP TO 2.55 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL TOTALS
YESTERDAY HELP SUBSTANTIATE THE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS. PORTIONS
OF EAST ARKANSAS RECEIVED WELL OVER TWO INCHES OF ACCUMULATION.
HODOGRAPHS ARE FAIRLY STRAIGHT TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
HIGH. WILL ADD THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES TO THE
HWO. RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LIKELY EXCEED 1.25
INCHES ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 3
INCHES LIKELY. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ON LABOR DAY. RAIN...CLOUDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILD TODAY AND TOMORROW...BUT
WARMER READINGS WILL RETURN MONDAY. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED.

GUIDANCE STILL LOOKS A BIT TOO WARM NEXT WEEK. AS STATED
EARLIER...GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE BULLISH BUILDING IN THE RIDGE
NEXT WEEK. BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY....BUT STILL LEANING
TOWARDS A SLIGHTLY COOLER SOLUTION. FOR NOW...ADVERTISING HIGH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
BELOW THE MIDDLE 90S IN GUIDANCE OUTPUT.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KJBR AND KMEM AND THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AT 7 KTS OR LESS.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES ON
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR
REDUCTIONS AT TIMES WITH CONVECTION...BUT TIMING THOSE OCCURENCES
THIS FAR OUT REMAINS DIFFICULT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
BUT INCREASE IN SPEEDS TO GREATER THAN 8 KTS AT ALL SITES WITH 10
KTS OR GREATER LIKELY AT KMEM AND KJBR BY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT 8 KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 300454
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE WEST OF THE RIVER AND
LOWER CHANCES TO THE EAST.

DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE AXIS GETTING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND
THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI...WITH A DISTINCT CUTOFF NEAR THE MS RIVER.
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN SHOWING TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING OR TWO MAY BE NEEDED. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT IN
THIS REGION.

TO THE EAST DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THIS REGION
ACCORDINGLY.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILERS/WSR-88D
VAD WIND PROFILES PLACES A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE 90S WHERE RAIN HASN/T OCCURRED YET AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
NEAR MEMPHIS AND BLYTHEVILLE WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WEAKENS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SEEM DECENT FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME FROM THIS MORNING/S FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ABOVE 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AND INSTEAD MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE 80S DUE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LATEST 12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LONG TERM MODELS STILL HAVE SOME
DISCONTINUITY FOR MID WEEK AS THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN PLACE AND THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAKENING RIDGE. HAVE TRENDED
THE LONG TERM FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...AND THINK ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

CJC

&&

AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
DRY CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KJBR AND KMEM AND THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTH TONIGHT AT 7 KTS OR LESS.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES ON
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR
REDUCTIONS AT TIMES WITH CONVECTION...BUT TIMING THOSE OCCURENCES
THIS FAR OUT REMAINS DIFFICULT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
BUT INCREASE IN SPEEDS TO GREATER THAN 8 KTS AT ALL SITES WITH 10
KTS OR GREATER LIKELY AT KMEM AND KJBR BY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH
LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR LEVELS. SOUTHEAST WINDS CAN BE
EXPECTED AT 8 KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 300003
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
703 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES TO THE WEST OF THE RIVER AND
LOWER CHANCES TO THE EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

MOISTURE AXIS GETTING BETTER DEFINED ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS AND
THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI...WITH A DISTINCT CUTOFF NEAR THE MS RIVER.
RADAR TRENDS HAVE BEEN SHOWING TRAINING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS OVER NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING OR TWO MAY BE NEEDED. HAVE INCREASED POPS OVERNIGHT IN
THIS REGION.

TO THE EAST DRIER AIR SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY NOT UNTIL SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE
FAR EASTERN COUNTIES. HAVE LOWERED POPS IN THIS REGION
ACCORDINGLY.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILERS/WSR-88D
VAD WIND PROFILES PLACES A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE 90S WHERE RAIN HASN/T OCCURRED YET AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
NEAR MEMPHIS AND BLYTHEVILLE WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S
FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WEAKENS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SEEM DECENT FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME FROM THIS MORNING/S FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ABOVE 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AND INSTEAD MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE 80S DUE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S.

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LATEST 12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LONG TERM MODELS STILL HAVE SOME
DISCONTINUITY FOR MID WEEK AS THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN PLACE AND THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAKENING RIDGE. HAVE TRENDED
THE LONG TERM FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...AND THINK ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KJBR THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z. ALL SITES
SHOULD RETURN TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SATURDAY. LATE TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KJBR AND KMEM
AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT 7 KTS OR LESS.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES ON
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR
REDUCTIONS AT TIMES WITH CONVECTION...BUT TIMING THOSE OCCURRANCES
THIS FAR OUT REMAINS DIFFICULT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
BUT INCREASE IN SPEEDS TO GREATER THAN 8 KTS AT ALL SITES WITH 10
KTS OR GREATER LIKELY AT KMEM AND KJBR BY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 292352
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
652 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILERS/WSR-88D
VAD WIND PROFILES PLACES A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE 90S WHERE RAIN HASN/T OCCURRED YET AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
NEAR MEMPHIS AND BLYTHEVILLE WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WEAKENS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SEEM DECENT FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME FROM THIS MORNING/S FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ABOVE 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AND INSTEAD MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE 80S DUE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LATEST 12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LONG TERM MODELS STILL HAVE SOME
DISCONTINUITY FOR MID WEEK AS THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN PLACE AND THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAKENING RIDGE. HAVE TRENDED
THE LONG TERM FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...AND THINK ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KJBR THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z. ALL SITES
SHOULD RETURN TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SATURDAY. LATE TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KJBR AND KMEM
AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT 7 KTS OR LESS.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES ON
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR
REDUCTIONS AT TIMES WITH CONVECTION...BUT TIMING THOSE OCCURRANCES
THIS FAR OUT REMAINS DIFFICULT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
BUT INCREASE IN SPEEDS TO GREATER THAN 8 KTS AT ALL SITES WITH 10
KTS OR GREATER LIKELY AT KMEM AND KJBR BY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 292352
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
652 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILERS/WSR-88D
VAD WIND PROFILES PLACES A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE 90S WHERE RAIN HASN/T OCCURRED YET AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
NEAR MEMPHIS AND BLYTHEVILLE WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WEAKENS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SEEM DECENT FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME FROM THIS MORNING/S FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ABOVE 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AND INSTEAD MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE 80S DUE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LATEST 12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LONG TERM MODELS STILL HAVE SOME
DISCONTINUITY FOR MID WEEK AS THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN PLACE AND THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAKENING RIDGE. HAVE TRENDED
THE LONG TERM FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...AND THINK ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS AND VSBYS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH TONIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A TEMPORARY REDUCTION TO MVFR CONDITIONS AT KJBR THIS
EVENING ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 03Z. ALL SITES
SHOULD RETURN TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AFTER 03Z THROUGH EARLY
MORNING SATURDAY. LATE TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF KJBR AND KMEM
AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT 7 KTS OR LESS.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES ON
SATURDAY WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS. THERE WILL LIKELY BE MVFR
REDUCTIONS AT TIMES WITH CONVECTION...BUT TIMING THOSE OCCURRANCES
THIS FAR OUT REMAINS DIFFICULT. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTH
BUT INCREASE IN SPEEDS TO GREATER THAN 8 KTS AT ALL SITES WITH 10
KTS OR GREATER LIKELY AT KMEM AND KJBR BY AFTERNOON.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 292041
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
341 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILERS/WSR-88D
VAD WIND PROFILES PLACES A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE 90S WHERE RAIN HASN/T OCCURRED YET AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
NEAR MEMPHIS AND BLYTHEVILLE WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WEAKENS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SEEM DECENT FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME FROM THIS MORNING/S FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ABOVE 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AND INSTEAD MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE 80S DUE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LATEST 12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LONG TERM MODELS STILL HAVE SOME
DISCONTINUITY FOR MID WEEK AS THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN PLACE AND THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAKENING RIDGE. HAVE TRENDED
THE LONG TERM FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...AND THINK ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

CJC
&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z...SLOWLY EDGING EAST WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER TROF FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 18Z TAFS WERE BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE 12Z NAM MODEL...WITH BEST TSRA CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AFTER 06Z.

PWB


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 292041
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
341 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/UPPER AIR PROFILERS/WSR-88D
VAD WIND PROFILES PLACES A LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND STRETCHING SOUTH INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. A SUBTLE LEAD SHORTWAVE
TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS RESULTING IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT ARE PREDOMINANTLY
IN THE 90S WHERE RAIN HASN/T OCCURRED YET AND LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S
NEAR MEMPHIS AND BLYTHEVILLE WHERE ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST IS THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THIS AFTERNOON/S
FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED/SCATTERED RAIN
CHANCES ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND WEAKENS. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SEEM DECENT FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THUS...HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING
FOR THIS TIMEFRAME FROM THIS MORNING/S FORECAST. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE ABOVE 2 INCHES WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT
VERY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WILL NOT ISSUE A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME AND INSTEAD MENTION LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN THE HAZARDOUS OUTLOOK. HIGHS THIS WEEKEND
WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE 80S DUE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH
LOWS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...LATEST 12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
BACK IN ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE WEEK.
UNFORTUNATELY...THE LONG TERM MODELS STILL HAVE SOME
DISCONTINUITY FOR MID WEEK AS THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IN PLACE AND THE ECMWF HINTS AT A WEAKENING RIDGE. HAVE TRENDED
THE LONG TERM FORECAST TOWARDS THE GFS SOLUTION...AND THINK ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.

CJC
&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z...SLOWLY EDGING EAST WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER TROF FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 18Z TAFS WERE BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE 12Z NAM MODEL...WITH BEST TSRA CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AFTER 06Z.

PWB


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 291742 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS OF 10 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN
THE MIDDLE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

LATEST SHORT TERM ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANTLY TRIGGERED
BY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE RADAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS QUIET AT 3 AM. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MEMPHIS METRO
AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE TWO TO THREE MORE DEGREES OF COOLING BEFORE SUNRISE RESULTING
IN MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE TRANSITIONING INTO A MUCH WETTER PATTER FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF AUGUST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT US HOT AND DRY FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS WILL SHIFT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...THOUGH IT WILL DE-AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT DOES SO.

THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN USHERING IN DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE FROM LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES TODAY TO IN EXCESS OF 2.25
INCHES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS IN EAST
ARKANSAS...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY BE ABUNDANT AND RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. DID NOT ADD ANY MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE HWO...BUT
IF PW`S GET AS HIGH AS THE NAM INDICATES...NEAR 2.5 INCHES...WE
MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH COOLER...SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BROAD TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION INTO ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER. GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MID 90S BY TUESDAY. THAT SEEMS A BIT WARM GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO HELP
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT SO WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE HIGHS BY
2-4 DEGREES FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY OVERLY ORGANIZED
WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE MAKING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT
GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AFTER MIDWEEK WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
WILL INCREASE AFTER 03Z...SLOWLY EDGING EAST WITH THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER TROF FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. 18Z TAFS WERE BASED
PRIMARILY ON THE 12Z NAM MODEL...WITH BEST TSRA CHANCES ASSOCIATED
WITH AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT AFTER 06Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 291557
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1057 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS OF 10 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN
THE MIDDLE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

LATEST SHORT TERM ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANTLY TRIGGERED
BY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE RADAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS QUIET AT 3 AM. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MEMPHIS METRO
AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE TWO TO THREE MORE DEGREES OF COOLING BEFORE SUNRISE RESULTING
IN MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE TRANSITIONING INTO A MUCH WETTER PATTER FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF AUGUST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT US HOT AND DRY FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS WILL SHIFT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...THOUGH IT WILL DE-AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT DOES SO.

THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN USHERING IN DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE FROM LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES TODAY TO IN EXCESS OF 2.25
INCHES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS IN EAST
ARKANSAS...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY BE ABUNDANT AND RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. DID NOT ADD ANY MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE HWO...BUT
IF PW`S GET AS HIGH AS THE NAM INDICATES...NEAR 2.5 INCHES...WE
MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH COOLER...SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BROAD TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION INTO ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER. GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MID 90S BY TUESDAY. THAT SEEMS A BIT WARM GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO HELP
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT SO WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE HIGHS BY
2-4 DEGREES FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY OVERLY ORGANIZED
WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE MAKING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT
GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AFTER MIDWEEK WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THE KMKL AREA PRODUCING MVFR VISIBILITIES
WHICH SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 291557
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1057 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHES
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST BACK THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A 700 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AS OF 10 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN
THE MIDDLE 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

LATEST SHORT TERM ANALYSIS STILL INDICATES A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANTLY TRIGGERED
BY CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED. WILL MAKE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE RADAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH IS QUIET AT 3 AM. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE MEMPHIS METRO
AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S. WE WILL LIKELY
SEE TWO TO THREE MORE DEGREES OF COOLING BEFORE SUNRISE RESULTING
IN MORNING LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE ARE TRANSITIONING INTO A MUCH WETTER PATTER FOR
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS OF AUGUST INTO EARLY SEPTEMBER. THE RIDGE
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS KEPT US HOT AND DRY FOR THE
PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS WILL SHIFT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY...THOUGH IT WILL DE-AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT DOES SO.

THIS AFTERNOON...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN USHERING IN DEEP
MOISTURE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
INCREASE FROM LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES TODAY TO IN EXCESS OF 2.25
INCHES BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SCATTERED LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS IN EAST
ARKANSAS...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS ALL OF THE MIDSOUTH BY
MID MORNING SATURDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...LASTING INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY BE ABUNDANT AND RAINFALL WILL BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. DID NOT ADD ANY MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE HWO...BUT
IF PW`S GET AS HIGH AS THE NAM INDICATES...NEAR 2.5 INCHES...WE
MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES BY SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE MUCH COOLER...SEVERAL DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A BROAD TROUGH WILL
TRANSITION INTO ZONAL FLOW FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER. GUIDANCE BRINGS HIGHS BACK
INTO THE MID 90S BY TUESDAY. THAT SEEMS A BIT WARM GIVEN THE
OVERALL PATTERN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ALSO HELP
TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT SO WILL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE HIGHS BY
2-4 DEGREES FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. DO NOT SEE ANY OVERLY ORGANIZED
WEATHER SYSTEMS IN THE MAKING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...EXPECT
GRADUALLY WARMER TEMPERATURES...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
AFTER MIDWEEK WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN THE KMKL AREA PRODUCING MVFR VISIBILITIES
WHICH SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS TODAY THEN DIMINISH TONIGHT.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








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