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000
FXUS64 KMEG 202339
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
639 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS
RESULTING IN SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND PRODUCING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN FOR
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ARE THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS EAST AND A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LATEST 12Z WRF/GFS MODELS INDICATE A MAJORITY OF THE QPF ARRIVING
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AS LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CAPPING INVERSION AND SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE
TO BE OVERCOME INITIALLY ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEST ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
40S/50S TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOMES NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT
BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN
WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THESE MODEL TRENDS PERSIST IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW END FOR THE TIME
BEING UNTIL TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES CAN BE BETTER
DETERMINED IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON SOME PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
AREAS INCLUDING JBR AND MEM. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN LATE AFTERNOON
AT JBR. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION NOT VERY
HIGH...HOWEVER...EXPECT JBR PRECIPITATION BEFORE TUESDAY EVENING.
TLSJR

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 201947
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
247 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING FROM NEW ENGLAND BACK THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE/WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS
INDICATE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI. THIS IS
RESULTING IN SOME CIRRUS MOVING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND PRODUCING
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND AGAIN FOR
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ARE THE PRIMARY
CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS TRANSITIONS EAST AND A POSITIVELY TILTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
LATEST 12Z WRF/GFS MODELS INDICATE A MAJORITY OF THE QPF ARRIVING
MAINLY MONDAY NIGHT. HAVE BACKED OFF ON POPS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EAST/NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AS LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A CAPPING INVERSION AND SOMEWHAT DRY AIR ALOFT WILL HAVE
TO BE OVERCOME INITIALLY ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BEST ACROSS AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER ON MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TO AREAS SOUTH OF I-40 ON TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE IN
THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
40S/50S TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND BECOMES NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT
BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. THIS PATTERN
WOULD SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THESE MODEL TRENDS PERSIST IN SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS. WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW END FOR THE TIME
BEING UNTIL TIMING OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES CAN BE BETTER
DETERMINED IN LATER MODEL RUNS.

CJC
&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 3-8 KTS. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY APPROACH JBR AND MEM AFTER 12Z.

JDS
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 201719
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1219 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATIOON DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1057 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION... SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARE PRESENT ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S AS OF 10AM CDT. KLZK AND KJAN SOUNDINGS INDICATE 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

JPM3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/


AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID
SOUTH TODAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND WARM WEATHER DAY TO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 80 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS. MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EAST BY
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCES SHOULD INITIALLY BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY COVERAGE AREAWIDE BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY...HELPING TO
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN MILD
WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY SET BACK UP BY THURSDAY
HELPING TO DRAW A MOISTER AIRMASS BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD ALL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES
ON THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AND INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS. AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
FOR SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE VICINITY OF
THE OLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 3-8 KTS. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY APPROACH JBR AND MEM AFTER 12Z.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 201557
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1057 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION... SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ARE PRESENT ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING. THIS IS RESULTING
IN SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S AS OF 10AM CDT. KLZK AND KJAN SOUNDINGS INDICATE 925 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 16C. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

JPM3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID
SOUTH TODAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND WARM WEATHER DAY TO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 80 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS. MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EAST BY
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCES SHOULD INITIALLY BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY COVERAGE AREAWIDE BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY...HELPING TO
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN MILD
WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY SET BACK UP BY THURSDAY
HELPING TO DRAW A MOISTER AIRMASS BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD ALL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES
ON THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AND INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS. AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
FOR SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE VICINITY OF
THE OLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 3-8 KTS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY ENCROACH UPON JBR AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 201131
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID
SOUTH TODAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND WARM WEATHER DAY TO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 80 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS. MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EAST BY
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCES SHOULD INITIALLY BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY COVERAGE AREAWIDE BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY...HELPING TO
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN MILD
WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY SET BACK UP BY THURSDAY
HELPING TO DRAW A MOISTER AIRMASS BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD ALL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES
ON THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AND INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS. AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
FOR SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE VICINITY OF
THE OLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 3-8 KTS. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY ENCROACH UPON JBR AT THE VERY END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 200835
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID
SOUTH TODAY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER DRY AND WARM WEATHER DAY TO
THE FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEARING 80 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS. MILD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASE IN HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
POSITIONED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EAST BY
MONDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH
SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT FROM THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY. THE GREATEST
CHANCES SHOULD INITIALLY BE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION
ON MONDAY BUT INCREASE TO LIKELY COVERAGE AREAWIDE BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST BY TUESDAY...HELPING TO
PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...BUT END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK SHOULD REMAIN MILD
WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL AGAIN BUILD ON WEDNESDAY WITH
SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES. SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW SHOULD QUICKLY SET BACK UP BY THURSDAY
HELPING TO DRAW A MOISTER AIRMASS BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE REGION.
THIS SHOULD ALL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WHICH SHOULD BE ADVANCING THROUGH THE PLAINS STATES
ON THURSDAY. AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH...EXPECT INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY AS THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AND INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
AS THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REBUILDS. AN ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
FOR SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 80S IN THE VICINITY OF
THE OLD FRONT. AT THIS TIME...COVERAGE APPEARS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL APPROACH THE REGION BY THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE REMAINS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT CHANCES FOR STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE INCREASE AGAIN
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY
WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG AROUND KTUP AND KMKL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
BETWEEN 20/09Z AND 20/13Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT E TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AT 5-6 KTS. AFTER 21/00Z...WINDS SOUTHERLY 5
KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 200521
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 854 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

AS OF 8PM...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1020MB CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREAWIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MEMPHIS
INTERNATIONAL REPORTING A MILD 72 DEGREES. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN RURAL AREAS AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER BASIN...WITH
LOWER 50S EXPECTED ALONG AND SURROUNDING THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
REGION.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
QUICKER THAN FORECASTED COOLING IN A FEW AREAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL
DAY IS IN STORE FOR EASTER SUNDAY TOMORROW.

AC3

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1033 MB RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY BACK THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGAIN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK ARE THE
CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND MAINLY LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IF NOT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH
READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS THINK MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE MID SOUTH BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME TIMING ISSUES EXIST
WITH WITH THE COLD FRONT AS MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR THIS
FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND ENCOUNTERS NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...HAVE KEPT A
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG AROUND KTUP AND KMKL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
BETWEEN 20/09Z AND 20/13Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT E TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AT 5-6 KTS. AFTER 21/00Z...WINDS SOUTHERLY 5
KTS OR LESS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 200154
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
854 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

AS OF 8PM...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1020MB CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S AREAWIDE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MEMPHIS
INTERNATIONAL REPORTING A MILD 72 DEGREES. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S IN RURAL AREAS AND ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER BASIN...WITH
LOWER 50S EXPECTED ALONG AND SURROUNDING THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
REGION.

MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
QUICKER THAN FORECASTED COOLING IN A FEW AREAS. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED. ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL
DAY IS IN STORE FOR EASTER SUNDAY TOMORROW.

AC3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1033 MB RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY BACK THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGAIN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK ARE THE
CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND MAINLY LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IF NOT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH
READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS THINK MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE MID SOUTH BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME TIMING ISSUES EXIST
WITH WITH THE COLD FRONT AS MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR THIS
FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND ENCOUNTERS NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...HAVE KEPT A
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (20/00Z-21/00Z)

PATCHY FOG AROUND KTUP AND KMKL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
BETWEEN 20/09Z AND 20/13Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT E TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AT 5-6 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 192310 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
610 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1033 MB RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY BACK THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGAIN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK ARE THE
CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND MAINLY LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IF NOT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH
READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS THINK MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE MID SOUTH BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME TIMING ISSUES EXIST
WITH WITH THE COLD FRONT AS MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR THIS
FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND ENCOUNTERS NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...HAVE KEPT A
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (20/00Z-21/00Z)

PATCHY FOG AROUND KTUP AND KMKL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR
BETWEEN 20/09Z AND 20/13Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT E TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT WILL
TURN SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AT 5-6 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 192006
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
306 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A 1033 MB RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM HUDSON BAY BACK THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. AS OF 2 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AND AGAIN FOR LATE NEXT WEEK ARE THE
CHALLENGES IN THIS AFTERNOON/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
TONIGHT...RESULTING IN A CONTINUATION OF CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO AROUND
50 DEGREES NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER AND MAINLY LOWER 50S
ELSEWHERE. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN
FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY IF NOT SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH
READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.

SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL MOVE
FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS BY MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE
LATEST MODEL TRENDS THINK MOST IF NOT ALL RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN BETTER INSTABILITY AND LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARRIVES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE MID SOUTH BY
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME TIMING ISSUES EXIST
WITH WITH THE COLD FRONT AS MODELS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR THIS
FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AND ENCOUNTERS NEARLY PARALLEL FLOW ALOFT. THUS...HAVE KEPT A
MENTION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT.

CJC
&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY BR RESULTING IN MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT AT TUP AND
MKL. WINE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KT TODAY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

JDS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 191735
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1235 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 11 AM CDT ARE IN THE 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES/CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/


DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL A VERY PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD. THE GENERAL PATTERN STILL
HAS A COUPLE OF FRONTS COMING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH DURING NEXT
WEEK. YET...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ALL
WEEK...WITH THE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL VARY AS A COUPLE
OF TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FAIRLY FLAT IN THAT THE UPPER LOWS...OTHER
THAN THE ONE EXITING RIGHT NOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST...ALL STAY ALONG
THE NORTHERN US BORDER. IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAKER
STORMS.

THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS A FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL
START EARLIER AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING IN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PATCHY BR RESULTING IN MVFR VIS OVERNIGHT AT TUP AND
MKL. WINE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KT TODAY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 191616
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1116 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION BACK THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. TEMPERATURES AS OF 11 AM CDT ARE IN THE 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES/CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL A VERY PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD. THE GENERAL PATTERN STILL
HAS A COUPLE OF FRONTS COMING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH DURING NEXT
WEEK. YET...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ALL
WEEK...WITH THE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL VARY AS A COUPLE
OF TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FAIRLY FLAT IN THAT THE UPPER LOWS...OTHER
THAN THE ONE EXITING RIGHT NOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST...ALL STAY ALONG
THE NORTHERN US BORDER. IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAKER
STORMS.

THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS A FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL
START EARLIER AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING IN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING LIGHT FOG EXPECTED AT
MKL AND TUP. CALM WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST AVERAGING 5-10 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN BY SUNSET.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 191130
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
630 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL A VERY PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD. THE GENERAL PATTERN STILL
HAS A COUPLE OF FRONTS COMING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH DURING NEXT
WEEK. YET...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ALL
WEEK...WITH THE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL VARY AS A COUPLE
OF TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FAIRLY FLAT IN THAT THE UPPER LOWS...OTHER
THAN THE ONE EXITING RIGHT NOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST...ALL STAY ALONG
THE NORTHERN US BORDER. IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAKER
STORMS.

THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS A FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL
START EARLIER AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING IN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EARLY MORNING LIGHT FOG EXPECTED AT
MKL AND TUP. CALM WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING FROM THE NORTHEAST
TO EAST AVERAGING 5-10 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AGAIN BY SUNSET.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 190847
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
347 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL A VERY PLEASANT WEEK AHEAD. THE GENERAL PATTERN STILL
HAS A COUPLE OF FRONTS COMING THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH DURING NEXT
WEEK. YET...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ALL
WEEK...WITH THE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL VARY AS A COUPLE
OF TROUGHS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS FAIRLY FLAT IN THAT THE UPPER LOWS...OTHER
THAN THE ONE EXITING RIGHT NOW TO OUR SOUTHEAST...ALL STAY ALONG
THE NORTHERN US BORDER. IN GENERAL...THIS WILL LEAD TO WEAKER
STORMS.

THE SURFACE PATTERN SHOWS A FRONT MOVING THOUGH ON MONDAY
NIGHT...HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALONG WITH CLOUDS WILL
START EARLIER AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY. THE FRONT ON FRIDAY WILL
BRING IN THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AS EARLY AS THURSDAY NIGHT.
TLSJR


&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

KTUP MAY HAVE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS SATURDAY NE 7-10 KTS...AND WINDS
AFTER 20/00Z LIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 190527
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1227 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING WHICH IS A DIRECT RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE ADDED
CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD AND FROM COOLING OFF AS
QUICKLY IN THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION WITH UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER 50S IN THE METRO AREA WITH UPPER 40S EXPECTED IN OUTLYING
AREAS.

HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. ALSO BUMPED UP LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT A COUPLE DEGREES
NEAR THE DELTA AREA. NEW ZONES AND GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

AC3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 330 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A SURFACE LOW
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FLORIDA WHILE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL AT
BEST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVALENT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BY SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS VERY LOW AT BEST AND AS A
RESULT KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. THESE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
AND APPROACH 80 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SLOWED ONSET OF LOW END RAIN CHANCES BACK TO LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS BETTER PRECIPITATION
AND A SHORTWAVE WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THE MID SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH
AN OCCLUDING COLD FRONT ARRIVING TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK. KEPT LOW
END POPS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED ANY MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADJUSTING UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

KTUP MAY HAVE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN FOG BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS SATURDAY NE 7-10 KTS...AND WINDS
AFTER 20/00Z LIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 190236
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
936 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...EVENING UPDATE.

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER MUCH OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI THIS EVENING WHICH IS A DIRECT RESULT OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEPARTING OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE ADDED
CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD AND FROM COOLING OFF AS
QUICKLY IN THESE AREAS. TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
60S NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION WITH UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
LOWER 50S IN THE METRO AREA WITH UPPER 40S EXPECTED IN OUTLYING
AREAS.

HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT CURRENT
CONDITIONS. ALSO BUMPED UP LOWS FOR OVERNIGHT A COUPLE DEGREES
NEAR THE DELTA AREA. NEW ZONES AND GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE
SHORTLY.

AC3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 330 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A SURFACE LOW
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FLORIDA WHILE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL AT
BEST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVALENT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BY SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS VERY LOW AT BEST AND AS A
RESULT KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. THESE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
AND APPROACH 80 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SLOWED ONSET OF LOW END RAIN CHANCES BACK TO LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS BETTER PRECIPITATION
AND A SHORTWAVE WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THE MID SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH
AN OCCLUDING COLD FRONT ARRIVING TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK. KEPT LOW
END POPS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED ANY MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADJUSTING UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (19/00Z-20/00Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS SATURDAY NE 7-10 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 182334 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 330 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A SURFACE LOW
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FLORIDA WHILE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL AT
BEST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVALENT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BY SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS VERY LOW AT BEST AND AS A
RESULT KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. THESE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
AND APPROACH 80 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SLOWED ONSET OF LOW END RAIN CHANCES BACK TO LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS BETTER PRECIPITATION
AND A SHORTWAVE WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THE MID SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH
AN OCCLUDING COLD FRONT ARRIVING TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK. KEPT LOW
END POPS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED ANY MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADJUSTING UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (19/00Z-20/00Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS LIGHT TONIGHT.
WINDS SATURDAY NE 7-10 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 182030
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
330 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS AFTERNOON PLACES A SURFACE LOW
IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FLORIDA WHILE WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN MINIMAL AT
BEST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
PREVALENT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND PARTLY SUNNY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES EAST. TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY
MOVE EAST TOWARDS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA BY SATURDAY.
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
EVENING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS VERY LOW AT BEST AND AS A
RESULT KEPT THE FORECAST RAIN FREE. THESE RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 70S
AND APPROACH 80 DEGREES THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT EMBEDDED WITHIN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT. SLOWED ONSET OF LOW END RAIN CHANCES BACK TO LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS BETTER PRECIPITATION
AND A SHORTWAVE WON/T ARRIVE UNTIL MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY CLEAR THE MID SOUTH ON TUESDAY WITH
AN OCCLUDING COLD FRONT ARRIVING TOWARDS LATE NEXT WEEK. KEPT LOW
END POPS AT THE END OF THE EXTENDED ANY MAY NEED TO CONSIDER
ADJUSTING UPWARD IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN QUITE SIMILAR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
RAINFALL COVERAGE ISN`T EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT
VCSH...ALTHOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE NEAR TUP. CIGS WILL
LIKELY BE 6-9K FEET THIS AFTERNOON CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS 0F 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

JDS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 181724
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1224 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.DISCUSSION...14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK OPEN WAVE
LOW AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING...WITH THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND ACROSS ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 9 AM CDT ARE
IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MINOR CHANGES
ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/


DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MID-SOUTH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND MUCH DEEPER CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWS SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT
OR EVEN SPRINKLES...HOWEVER...A COUPLE SPOTS HAVE SOME SHORT
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

BY TONIGHT A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND
BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ALONG WITH THE DRY
WEATHER THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM EACH DAY TO NEAR 80
DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS WEAK AND MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY MOVE
THROUGH AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN LINGER SOME ON TUESDAY. MY
THOUGHT IS BEST CHANCE IS MONDAY NIGHT...HWOEVER...LEFT POPS IN
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT A HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE MID-SOUTH
WILL BE DRY AND WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.   TLSJR

&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE
RAINFALL COVERAGE ISN`T EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH TO EVEN WARRANT
VCSH...ALTHOUGH THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE NEAR TUP. CIGS WILL
LIKELY BE 6-9K FEET THIS AFTERNOON CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT.
EASTERLY WINDS 0F 5-8 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 181520
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1020 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

..DISCUSSION...14Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR FLORIDA. MEANWHILE...A WEAK OPEN WAVE
LOW AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW
LITTLE IF ANY RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS
MORNING...WITH THE NEAREST PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND ACROSS ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA. TEMPERATURES AS OF 9 AM CDT ARE
IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WILL MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWER
POPS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND MINOR CHANGES
ELSEWHERE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MID-SOUTH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND MUCH DEEPER CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWS SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT
OR EVEN SPRINKLES...HOWEVER...A COUPLE SPOTS HAVE SOME SHORT
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

BY TONIGHT A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND
BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ALONG WITH THE DRY
WEATHER THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM EACH DAY TO NEAR 80
DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS WEAK AND MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY MOVE
THROUGH AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN LINGER SOME ON TUESDAY. MY
THOUGHT IS BEST CHANCE IS MONDAY NIGHT...HWOEVER...LEFT POPS IN
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT A HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE MID-SOUTH
WILL BE DRY AND WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.   TLSJR

&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN VICINITY DURING THE FIRST
HALF. TUP MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY ON STATION. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT MKL AND TUP. EASTERLY WINDS 0F 5-8
KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AFTER SUNSET.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 181132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
632 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MID-SOUTH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND MUCH DEEPER CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWS SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT
OR EVEN SPRINKLES...HOWEVER...A COUPLE SPOTS HAVE SOME SHORT
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

BY TONIGHT A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND
BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ALONG WITH THE DRY
WEATHER THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM EACH DAY TO NEAR 80
DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS WEAK AND MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY MOVE
THROUGH AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN LINGER SOME ON TUESDAY. MY
THOUGHT IS BEST CHANCE IS MONDAY NIGHT...HWOEVER...LEFT POPS IN
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT A HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE MID-SOUTH
WILL BE DRY AND WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.   TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WITH SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN VICINITY DURING THE FIRST
HALF. TUP MAY SEE SOME ACTIVITY ON STATION. CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT
WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AT MKL AND TUP. EASTERLY WINDS 0F 5-8
KTS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR CALM AFTER SUNSET.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 180943
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
443 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT SATELLITE SHOWS SOME CLOUDS OVER THE MID-SOUTH ASSOCIATED
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
AND MUCH DEEPER CLOUDS TO THE SOUTHEAST ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE
LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...RADAR SHOWS SOME WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THESE SHOWERS ARE LIGHT
OR EVEN SPRINKLES...HOWEVER...A COUPLE SPOTS HAVE SOME SHORT
PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN. THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES TO THE EAST.

BY TONIGHT A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AND
BRING DRY WEATHER THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. ALONG WITH THE DRY
WEATHER THE TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WARM EACH DAY TO NEAR 80
DEGREES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH ON MONDAY NIGHT...NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING OF
THE THIS SYSTEM AS IT IS WEAK AND MODELS SUGGEST IT MAY MOVE
THROUGH AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND THEN LINGER SOME ON TUESDAY. MY
THOUGHT IS BEST CHANCE IS MONDAY NIGHT...HWOEVER...LEFT POPS IN
FROM MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT A HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA AND THE MID-SOUTH
WILL BE DRY AND WARM...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.   TLSJR

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. BOTH FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
LOWER CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL VFR...INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR NEAR TUP FROM 08Z THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MEM AND MKL...BUT WILL REMAIN
SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO WENT VCSH FOR THOSE SITES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE
EAST TOMORROW BEFORE CALMING AGAIN AFTER SUNDOWN TOMORROW.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 180506
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1206 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1055 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...

NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

DISCUSSION...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS INDUCED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
NOTED ON EVENING REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER AS COMPARED TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MODIFIED
AIRMASS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND BACK INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE
PREVAILED WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT IN THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHALLENGES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN
FOR LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE
PRIMARY CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. I THINK IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...HAVE HELD OFF
LOW RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT SHORT
TERM TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MAINLY
RAINFREE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. BOTH FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
LOWER CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL VFR...INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR NEAR TUP FROM 08Z THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AND TEMPORARY MVFR CEILINGS MAY BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHT CHANCES
FOR RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR MEM AND MKL...BUT WILL REMAIN
SPOTTY IN COVERAGE SO WENT VCSH FOR THOSE SITES. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TO CALM OVERNIGHT...PICKING UP TO AROUND 10 KTS OUT OF THE
EAST TOMORROW BEFORE CALMING AGAIN AFTER SUNDOWN TOMORROW.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 180355
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1055 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATES TO THE FORECAST ARE PLANNED THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS INDUCED SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOISTURE
SPREADING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND
LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
NOTED ON EVENING REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
LOW. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WARMER AS COMPARED TO THE PAST
COUPLE OF NIGHTS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND MODIFIED
AIRMASS. THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO
UPDATES ARE PLANNED.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014/

.DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS
MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND BACK INTO OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.
MEANWHILE...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES HAVE
PREVAILED WITH TEMPERATURES AS OF 3 PM CDT IN THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. PRECIPITATION CHALLENGES TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN
FOR LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE
PRIMARY CHALLENGES IN THIS FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...A LONGWAVE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. I THINK IT WILL
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO MOISTEN UP TO PRODUCE SOME
RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH A RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS
ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THUS...HAVE HELD OFF
LOW RAIN CHANCES UNTIL THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...GIVEN CURRENT SHORT
TERM TRENDS. SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN FREE CONDITIONS RETURNING THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...12Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS REMAIN IN SOMEWHAT GOOD AGREEMENT EXCEPT FOR SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BETWEEN SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ENOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE PRESENT TO
SUPPORT A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME. MAINLY
RAINFREE CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WHILE A SURFACE LOW TRACKS
NORTHEAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. BOTH FEATURES WILL PUSH LOWER
CLOUDS...THOUGH STILL VFR...INTO THE FORECAST AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...MAINLY AFTER 08Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH 15Z. NOT TOO
CONFIDENT ON RAIN AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY DRY AND WILL TAKE A
WHILE TO SATURATE...HOWEVER BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE NEAR SITES
MEM...MKL...AND TUP. WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHEAST SHIFTING
EASTERLY BY LATE TONIGHT.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









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