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000
FXUS64 KMEG 112316
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL MS WHILE A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
IL. THIS SCENARIO PROVIDED A STRONG N-S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
A DEFINED NE WIND THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE FRIDAY
PROVIDING A MORE POLAR-LIKE AIRMASS INTO SATURDAY. A RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND A SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND BE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTH
WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MORE DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN LATER FORECASTS.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN US PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SWC

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SWITCHING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 112316
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL MS WHILE A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
IL. THIS SCENARIO PROVIDED A STRONG N-S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
A DEFINED NE WIND THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE FRIDAY
PROVIDING A MORE POLAR-LIKE AIRMASS INTO SATURDAY. A RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND A SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND BE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTH
WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MORE DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN LATER FORECASTS.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN US PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SWC

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SWITCHING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 112316
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 353 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL MS WHILE A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
IL. THIS SCENARIO PROVIDED A STRONG N-S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
A DEFINED NE WIND THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE FRIDAY
PROVIDING A MORE POLAR-LIKE AIRMASS INTO SATURDAY. A RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND A SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND BE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTH
WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MORE DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN LATER FORECASTS.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN US PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SWC

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS
BETWEEN 5-10 KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
TONIGHT SWITCHING TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION ON FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 112153
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
353 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN
CENTRAL MS WHILE A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
IL. THIS SCENARIO PROVIDED A STRONG N-S TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH
A DEFINED NE WIND THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THROUGH FRIDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE FRIDAY
PROVIDING A MORE POLAR-LIKE AIRMASS INTO SATURDAY. A RETURN FLOW
OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND A SURFACE LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND BE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY IN THE NORTH
WHERE THERE COULD BE SOME IMPACTS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. MORE DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED IN LATER FORECASTS.

A WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN US PROGRESSES TO THE EAST. DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

SWC

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS OF 6-10
KTS THROUGH 00Z. HIGHER GUSTS AT KJBR. AFTER 00Z...SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AROUND 12/12-15Z.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 111731 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1131 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE.../ISSUED 952 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHILE
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ON TRACK AND WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S TO THE
MID 50S. CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS
THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS STATES AND WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR GETS HERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL IN
QUESTION DEPENDING ON TIMING WITH RAIN EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WILL CHANGE
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH RAIN
ENDING MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS OF 6-10
KTS THROUGH 00Z. HIGHER GUSTS AT KJBR. AFTER 00Z...SPEEDS WILL
DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH AROUND 12/12-15Z.
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

LZK58





000
FXUS64 KMEG 111552 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
952 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHILE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
ON TRACK AND WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID 50S. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS STATES AND WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR GETS HERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL IN
QUESTION DEPENDING ON TIMING WITH RAIN EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WILL CHANGE
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH RAIN
ENDING MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

ARS

AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS OF 6-10
KTS WILL THROUGH 00Z. HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT KJBR. AFTER
00Z...SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS.

KRM
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

LZK58





000
FXUS64 KMEG 111552 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
952 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHILE MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
ON TRACK AND WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 40S TO THE MID 50S. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK...WITH NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS STATES AND WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR GETS HERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL IN
QUESTION DEPENDING ON TIMING WITH RAIN EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WILL CHANGE
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH RAIN
ENDING MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

ARS

AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS OF 6-10
KTS WILL THROUGH 00Z. HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT KJBR. AFTER
00Z...SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS.

KRM
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

LZK58





000
FXUS64 KMEG 111108
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
508 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS STATES AND WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR GETS HERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL IN
QUESTION DEPENDING ON TIMING WITH RAIN EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WILL CHANGE
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH RAIN
ENDING MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS OF 6-10
KTS WILL THROUGH 00Z. HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT KJBR. AFTER
00Z...SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 111108
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
508 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS STATES AND WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR GETS HERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL IN
QUESTION DEPENDING ON TIMING WITH RAIN EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WILL CHANGE
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH RAIN
ENDING MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS OF 6-10
KTS WILL THROUGH 00Z. HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT KJBR. AFTER
00Z...SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 111108
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
508 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS STATES AND WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR GETS HERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL IN
QUESTION DEPENDING ON TIMING WITH RAIN EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WILL CHANGE
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH RAIN
ENDING MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS OF 6-10
KTS WILL THROUGH 00Z. HIGHER GUSTS MAY OCCUR AT KJBR. AFTER
00Z...SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 5 KTS.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 110900
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION
TODAY KEEPING DRY WEATHER OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS TODAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO MID 50S. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH LOWS FROM
THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

BY FRIDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE
PLAINS STATES AND WILL REACH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT.
BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR GETS HERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ONCE AGAIN
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR FRIDAY WITH HIGHS FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID
50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE COLD WITH
HIGHS IN THE 30S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH
LOWS SUNDAY MORNING FROM THE MID TEENS TO UPPER 20S.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SOME ON SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SLIDES EAST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE LOWER 30S TO MID 40S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AS THE LOW MOVES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND BRING
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS STILL IN
QUESTION DEPENDING ON TIMING WITH RAIN EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SNOW OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER
NORTHERN SECTIONS. TEMPERATURES WARM ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WILL CHANGE
ANY WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER TO RAIN IN THE MORNING WITH RAIN
ENDING MONDAY NIGHT.

DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARMER
WEATHER IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE 60 DEGREES.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED NEAR 8 KTS AT ALL SITES AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED...WITH SPEEDS FALLING OFF AGAIN
BY 00Z FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 110529
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1129 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE EVENING SNOW WORDING AND IMPROVE SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY OF WEST TENNESSEE. UPDATED TO REMOVE
THE EVENING SNOW WORDING OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS ARE FALLING IN WEST TENNESSEE AS
A WEAK STREAMWISE VORT MAX TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...AND
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK...WE
MAY SEE SOME OF THE FIRST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE UPCOMING WEEK OR SO.
THERE MAY BE SOME MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
SYNOPTICALLY WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...BUT STILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND COOL.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BREAK
DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST RESULTING
IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS A
RESULT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. A
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTH
MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
EAST ARKANSAS...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 40S.

30

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED NEAR 8 KTS AT ALL SITES AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED...WITH SPEEDS FALLING OFF AGAIN
BY 00Z FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 110529
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1129 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE EVENING SNOW WORDING AND IMPROVE SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY OF WEST TENNESSEE. UPDATED TO REMOVE
THE EVENING SNOW WORDING OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS ARE FALLING IN WEST TENNESSEE AS
A WEAK STREAMWISE VORT MAX TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...AND
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK...WE
MAY SEE SOME OF THE FIRST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE UPCOMING WEEK OR SO.
THERE MAY BE SOME MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
SYNOPTICALLY WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...BUT STILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND COOL.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BREAK
DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST RESULTING
IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS A
RESULT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. A
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTH
MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
EAST ARKANSAS...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 40S.

30

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED NEAR 8 KTS AT ALL SITES AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED...WITH SPEEDS FALLING OFF AGAIN
BY 00Z FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 110529
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1129 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 842 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE EVENING SNOW WORDING AND IMPROVE SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY OF WEST TENNESSEE. UPDATED TO REMOVE
THE EVENING SNOW WORDING OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS ARE FALLING IN WEST TENNESSEE AS
A WEAK STREAMWISE VORT MAX TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...AND
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK...WE
MAY SEE SOME OF THE FIRST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE UPCOMING WEEK OR SO.
THERE MAY BE SOME MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
SYNOPTICALLY WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...BUT STILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND COOL.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BREAK
DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST RESULTING
IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS A
RESULT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. A
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTH
MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
EAST ARKANSAS...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 40S.

30

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS
HAVE GENERALLY REMAINED NEAR 8 KTS AT ALL SITES AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. ON THURSDAY...A GRADUAL
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED...WITH SPEEDS FALLING OFF AGAIN
BY 00Z FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 110242
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
842 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE EVENING SNOW WORDING AND IMPROVE SKY COVER
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS THAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE NIGHT. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR ACROSS ALL BUT PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY OF WEST TENNESSEE. UPDATED TO REMOVE
THE EVENING SNOW WORDING OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE...OTHERWISE THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS ARE FALLING IN WEST TENNESSEE AS
A WEAK STREAMWISE VORT MAX TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...AND
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK...WE
MAY SEE SOME OF THE FIRST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE UPCOMING WEEK OR SO.
THERE MAY BE SOME MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
SYNOPTICALLY WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...BUT STILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND COOL.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BREAK
DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST RESULTING
IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS A
RESULT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. A
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTH
MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
EAST ARKANSAS...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 40S.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 6-8 KTS.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 102309
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
509 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS ARE FALLING IN WEST TENNESSEE AS A
WEAK STREAMWISE VORT MAX TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...AND
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK...WE
MAY SEE SOME OF THE FIRST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE UPCOMING WEEK OR SO.
THERE MAY BE SOME MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
SYNOPTICALLY WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...BUT STILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND COOL.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BREAK
DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST RESULTING
IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS A
RESULT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. A
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTH
MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
EAST ARKANSAS...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 40S.

30

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 6-8 KTS.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 102309
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
509 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS ARE FALLING IN WEST TENNESSEE AS A
WEAK STREAMWISE VORT MAX TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...AND
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK...WE
MAY SEE SOME OF THE FIRST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE UPCOMING WEEK OR SO.
THERE MAY BE SOME MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
SYNOPTICALLY WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...BUT STILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND COOL.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BREAK
DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST RESULTING
IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS A
RESULT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. A
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTH
MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
EAST ARKANSAS...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 40S.

30

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH WINDS
FROM THE SOUTH BETWEEN 6-8 KTS.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 102055
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
255 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES/SNOW GRAINS ARE FALLING IN WEST TENNESSEE AS A
WEAK STREAMWISE VORT MAX TRACKS OUT OF CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO
MIDDLE TENNESSEE. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS
SNOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE
30S. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT...AND
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK. BY MIDWEEK...WE
MAY SEE SOME OF THE FIRST ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THAT WE HAVE
SEEN IN QUITE A WHILE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. IT LOOKS LIKE SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE UPCOMING WEEK OR SO.
THERE MAY BE SOME MID TO UPPER TEENS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS
WITH HIGHS EACH DAY RANGING FROM THE LOW 30S TO LOW 40S.
SYNOPTICALLY WE WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WORK WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO OUR NORTH...BUT STILL INFLUENCE OUR
WEATHER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY...KEEPING US DRY AND COOL.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BREAK
DOWN ACROSS THE PLAINS RESULTING IN MORE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH. THE SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH WILL SHIFT EAST RESULTING
IN STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. AS A
RESULT...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION. A
SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO NORTH
MISSOURI SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 30S SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS MOST OF WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
EAST ARKANSAS...WITH A RAIN SNOW MIX IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB INTO THE 40S.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CYCLE AT ALL TERMINALS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS KMKL WHERE TEMPO INCLUDED FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO
MVFR CONDS. ELSE...CONDS WILL CONTINUE VFR. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE CYCLE AS A SFC HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE
SOUTH.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 101754
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ARE ON RADAR UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI...SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE HAD THIS
PRECIPITATION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN IT IS ON RADAR...AND HRRR
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP IT FARTHER EAST. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...PULLING POPS FARTHER WEST. ALSO DECREASED
CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATELLITE. TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD...COLD...BUT GOOD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE...BUT MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS
THE LOW 40S IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE
MID SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THIS SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAYS LATER THIS EVENING. ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. PLAN TO MENTION THE LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MINOR IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE SNOWFALL ENDS UP HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 20S
AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST TO THE SOUTH OR ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE STILL IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM...A TRANSITION BACK TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TREND. THEREFORE
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE VERY END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CYCLE AT ALL TERMINALS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS KMKL WHERE TEMPO INCLUDED FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO
MVFR CONDS. ELSE...CONDS WILL CONTINUE VFR. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE CYCLE AS A SFC HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE
SOUTH.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 101754
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ARE ON RADAR UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI...SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE HAD THIS
PRECIPITATION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN IT IS ON RADAR...AND HRRR
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP IT FARTHER EAST. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...PULLING POPS FARTHER WEST. ALSO DECREASED
CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATELLITE. TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD...COLD...BUT GOOD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE...BUT MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS
THE LOW 40S IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE
MID SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THIS SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAYS LATER THIS EVENING. ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. PLAN TO MENTION THE LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MINOR IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE SNOWFALL ENDS UP HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 20S
AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST TO THE SOUTH OR ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE STILL IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM...A TRANSITION BACK TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TREND. THEREFORE
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE VERY END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CYCLE AT ALL TERMINALS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS KMKL WHERE TEMPO INCLUDED FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO
MVFR CONDS. ELSE...CONDS WILL CONTINUE VFR. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE CYCLE AS A SFC HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE
SOUTH.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 101754
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1038 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ARE ON RADAR UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI...SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE HAD THIS
PRECIPITATION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN IT IS ON RADAR...AND HRRR
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP IT FARTHER EAST. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...PULLING POPS FARTHER WEST. ALSO DECREASED
CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATELLITE. TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD...COLD...BUT GOOD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE...BUT MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS
THE LOW 40S IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

12

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE
MID SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THIS SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAYS LATER THIS EVENING. ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. PLAN TO MENTION THE LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MINOR IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE SNOWFALL ENDS UP HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 20S
AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST TO THE SOUTH OR ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE STILL IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM...A TRANSITION BACK TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TREND. THEREFORE
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE VERY END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE CYCLE AT ALL TERMINALS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION IS KMKL WHERE TEMPO INCLUDED FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF
LIGHT SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LOWERING CIGS AND VSBYS TO
MVFR CONDS. ELSE...CONDS WILL CONTINUE VFR. WESTERLY WINDS TODAY
WILL TURN SOUTHERLY BY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE CYCLE AS A SFC HIGH CENTER MOVES TO THE
SOUTH.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 101638
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1038 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ARE ON RADAR UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI...SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE HAD THIS
PRECIPITATION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN IT IS ON RADAR...AND HRRR
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP IT FARTHER EAST. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...PULLING POPS FARTHER WEST. ALSO DECREASED
CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATELLITE. TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD...COLD...BUT GOOD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE...BUT MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS
THE LOW 40S IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE
MID SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THIS SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAYS LATER THIS EVENING. ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. PLAN TO MENTION THE LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MINOR IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE SNOWFALL ENDS UP HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 20S
AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST TO THE SOUTH OR ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE STILL IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM...A TRANSITION BACK TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TREND. THEREFORE
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE VERY END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 T0 10 KNOTS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 101638
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1038 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ARE ON RADAR UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI...SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE HAD THIS
PRECIPITATION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN IT IS ON RADAR...AND HRRR
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP IT FARTHER EAST. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...PULLING POPS FARTHER WEST. ALSO DECREASED
CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATELLITE. TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD...COLD...BUT GOOD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE...BUT MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS
THE LOW 40S IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE
MID SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THIS SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAYS LATER THIS EVENING. ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. PLAN TO MENTION THE LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MINOR IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE SNOWFALL ENDS UP HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 20S
AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST TO THE SOUTH OR ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE STILL IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM...A TRANSITION BACK TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TREND. THEREFORE
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE VERY END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 T0 10 KNOTS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 101638
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1038 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE ARE ON RADAR UPSTREAM ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI...SLOWLY MOVING TOWARD THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE HAD THIS
PRECIPITATION A BIT FARTHER EAST THAN IT IS ON RADAR...AND HRRR
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP IT FARTHER EAST. ADJUSTED POPS A BIT
BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...PULLING POPS FARTHER WEST. ALSO DECREASED
CLOUD COVER BASED ON SATELLITE. TEMPERATURES LOOK
GOOD...COLD...BUT GOOD. HIGHS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN WEST TENNESSEE...BUT MAY CLIMB AS HIGH AS
THE LOW 40S IN THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA REGION OF NORTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

12

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE
MID SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THIS SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAYS LATER THIS EVENING. ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. PLAN TO MENTION THE LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MINOR IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE SNOWFALL ENDS UP HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 20S
AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST TO THE SOUTH OR ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE STILL IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM...A TRANSITION BACK TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TREND. THEREFORE
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE VERY END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 T0 10 KNOTS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 101132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE
MID SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THIS SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAYS LATER THIS EVENING. ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. PLAN TO MENTION THE LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MINOR IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE SNOWFALL ENDS UP HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 20S
AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST TO THE SOUTH OR ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE STILL IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM...A TRANSITION BACK TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TREND. THEREFORE
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE VERY END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 T0 10 KNOTS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 101132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE
MID SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THIS SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAYS LATER THIS EVENING. ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. PLAN TO MENTION THE LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MINOR IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE SNOWFALL ENDS UP HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 20S
AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST TO THE SOUTH OR ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE STILL IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM...A TRANSITION BACK TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TREND. THEREFORE
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE VERY END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 T0 10 KNOTS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 101132
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
532 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE
MID SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THIS SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAYS LATER THIS EVENING. ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. PLAN TO MENTION THE LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MINOR IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE SNOWFALL ENDS UP HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 20S
AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST TO THE SOUTH OR ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE STILL IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM...A TRANSITION BACK TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TREND. THEREFORE
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE VERY END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 T0 10 KNOTS BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 100846
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
246 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTING OVER THE
MID SOUTH. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH UPSTREAM ACROSS THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST LATER
TODAY AND SPREAD AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
SOUTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL
WILL BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE WHERE UP TO ONE
HALF INCH OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. COLD TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW
FOR SOME OF THIS SNOW TO STICK TO ROADWAYS LATER THIS EVENING. ANY
LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER OFF BEFORE MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. PLAN TO MENTION THE LIGHT SNOW
POTENTIAL IN THE LATEST HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. MINOR IMPACTS
TO TRAVEL ARE POSSIBLE...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. LATER SHIFTS WILL CLOSELY MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY IN CASE SNOWFALL ENDS UP HEAVIER THAN CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S
ACROSS NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO AROUND 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE PRIMARILY IN THE 20S
AREAWIDE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
COOL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL MODERATE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL
LEVELS BY FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THE FRONT SHOULD HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...THEREFORE HAVE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES QUITE INTERESTING BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE DROPS
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. COLD AIR WILL LIKELY BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS AND MOVES EAST TO THE SOUTH OR ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO MONDAY MORNING. AS WARMER AIR ADVECTS NORTHWARD ON
MONDAY...EXPECT WINTRY PRECIPITATION TYPES TO SLOWLY TRANSITION TO
ALL RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. THERE STILL IS
PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT...BUT MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST SOME WINTER WEATHER POTENTIAL DURING THIS
PERIOD. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

FOLLOWING THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM...A TRANSITION BACK TO
WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER APPEARS THE MOST LIKELY TREND. THEREFORE
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THIS DIRECTION FOR THE VERY END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 4-8KTS BACKING SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 100524
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1124 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST AND IMPROVE SKY COVER.

DISCUSSION...

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS
EVENING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED IN MOST AREAS WITH ALL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVED OUT TO THE EAST. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TEENS OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOWER 20S OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA COUNTIES.

THE FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS
AND ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY...LEAVING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AREA TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE 09/12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HINT AT BRIEF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHWEST TN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A FRIDAY
EVENING PASSAGE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS EDGED CLOSER
TO RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS...SHOWING A LESS DIRECT AND LASTING INTRUSION
OF ARCTIC AIR. BOTH MODELS NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC PRESSURE RIDGE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL AID LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. AN
INVERTED PRESSURE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WITH ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE TROF.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY RETURN WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDSOUTH.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH WEST AND NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 4-8KTS BACKING SOUTHWEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 100327
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
927 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST AND IMPROVE SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS
EVENING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED IN MOST AREAS WITH ALL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVED OUT TO THE EAST. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TEENS OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOWER 20S OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA COUNTIES.

THE FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS
AND ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY...LEAVING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AREA TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE 09/12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HINT AT BRIEF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHWEST TN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A FRIDAY
EVENING PASSAGE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS EDGED CLOSER
TO RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS...SHOWING A LESS DIRECT AND LASTING INTRUSION
OF ARCTIC AIR. BOTH MODELS NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC PRESSURE RIDGE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL AID LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. AN
INVERTED PRESSURE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WITH ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE TROF.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY RETURN WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDSOUTH.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 6-10 KT
RANGE FOR THE PERIOD...BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 100327
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
927 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FROM THE FORECAST AND IMPROVE SKY COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THIS
EVENING WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. SKIES
HAVE CLEARED IN MOST AREAS WITH ALL SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
MOVED OUT TO THE EAST. MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER TEENS OVER NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE LOWER 20S OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA COUNTIES.

THE FORECAST AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT ONGOING TRENDS
AND ANTICIPATED CONDITIONS.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY...LEAVING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AREA TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE 09/12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HINT AT BRIEF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHWEST TN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A FRIDAY
EVENING PASSAGE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS EDGED CLOSER
TO RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS...SHOWING A LESS DIRECT AND LASTING INTRUSION
OF ARCTIC AIR. BOTH MODELS NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC PRESSURE RIDGE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL AID LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. AN
INVERTED PRESSURE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WITH ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE TROF.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY RETURN WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDSOUTH.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 6-10 KT
RANGE FOR THE PERIOD...BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 092324
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
524 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY...LEAVING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AREA TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE 09/12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HINT AT BRIEF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHWEST TN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A FRIDAY
EVENING PASSAGE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS EDGED CLOSER
TO RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS...SHOWING A LESS DIRECT AND LASTING INTRUSION
OF ARCTIC AIR. BOTH MODELS NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC PRESSURE RIDGE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL AID LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. AN
INVERTED PRESSURE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WITH ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE TROF.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY RETURN WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDSOUTH.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 6-10 KT
RANGE FOR THE PERIOD...BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 092324
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
524 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY...LEAVING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AREA TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE 09/12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HINT AT BRIEF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHWEST TN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A FRIDAY
EVENING PASSAGE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS EDGED CLOSER
TO RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS...SHOWING A LESS DIRECT AND LASTING INTRUSION
OF ARCTIC AIR. BOTH MODELS NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC PRESSURE RIDGE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL AID LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. AN
INVERTED PRESSURE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WITH ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE TROF.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY RETURN WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDSOUTH.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 6-10 KT
RANGE FOR THE PERIOD...BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 092324
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
524 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY...LEAVING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AREA TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE 09/12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HINT AT BRIEF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHWEST TN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A FRIDAY
EVENING PASSAGE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS EDGED CLOSER
TO RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS...SHOWING A LESS DIRECT AND LASTING INTRUSION
OF ARCTIC AIR. BOTH MODELS NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC PRESSURE RIDGE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL AID LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. AN
INVERTED PRESSURE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WITH ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE TROF.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY RETURN WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDSOUTH.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES THIS PERIOD...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 6-10 KT
RANGE FOR THE PERIOD...BECOMING LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 092119
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY...LEAVING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AREA TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE 09/12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HINT AT BRIEF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHWEST TN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A FRIDAY
EVENING PASSAGE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS EDGED CLOSER
TO RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS...SHOWING A LESS DIRECT AND LASTING INTRUSION
OF ARCTIC AIR. BOTH MODELS NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC PRESSURE RIDGE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL AID LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. AN
INVERTED PRESSURE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WITH ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE TROF.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY RETURN WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDSOUTH.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON. KMKL
CURRENTLY AT MVFR AND THESE CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES WITH REDUCED CIGS. TEMPO INCLUDED
AT KMKL FOR POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET ALONG WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 092119
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY...LEAVING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AREA TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE 09/12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HINT AT BRIEF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHWEST TN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A FRIDAY
EVENING PASSAGE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS EDGED CLOSER
TO RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS...SHOWING A LESS DIRECT AND LASTING INTRUSION
OF ARCTIC AIR. BOTH MODELS NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC PRESSURE RIDGE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL AID LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. AN
INVERTED PRESSURE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WITH ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE TROF.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY RETURN WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDSOUTH.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON. KMKL
CURRENTLY AT MVFR AND THESE CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES WITH REDUCED CIGS. TEMPO INCLUDED
AT KMKL FOR POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET ALONG WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 092119
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
319 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
U.S. WILL FINALLY LIFT OUT BY THURSDAY...LEAVING LOWER AMPLITUDE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN ITS WAKE OVER THE MIDSOUTH. AREA TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY...IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT
ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE 09/12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HINT AT BRIEF LIGHT SNOW POTENTIAL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM THE MID MS AND TN RIVER VALLEYS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING UPPER JET STREAK. THIS WOULD
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHWEST TN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE APPEARS ON TRACK FOR A FRIDAY
EVENING PASSAGE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH. THE ECMWF HAS EDGED CLOSER
TO RECENT GFS SOLUTIONS...SHOWING A LESS DIRECT AND LASTING INTRUSION
OF ARCTIC AIR. BOTH MODELS NOW SHOW THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH
TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. THIS
ALLOWS LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP AROUND THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE ARCTIC PRESSURE RIDGE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

A NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT DROPS INTO THE
LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL AID LOW
LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE STALLED ARCTIC FRONT TO OUR SOUTH. AN
INVERTED PRESSURE TROF WILL PASS THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH WITH ITS
PARENT SHORTWAVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. MIXED WINTRY PRECIP
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER AIR ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
LEVEL PRESSURE TROF.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK... AN APPROACHING LONGWAVE RIDGE FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LIKELY RETURN WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO THE MIDSOUTH.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON. KMKL
CURRENTLY AT MVFR AND THESE CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES WITH REDUCED CIGS. TEMPO INCLUDED
AT KMKL FOR POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET ALONG WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 091738
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
SEE ANY ACCUMULATION BUT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
MAY PICK UP .1 INCH OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY BUT THAT
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR IN THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE
TO BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY NEARING NORMAL LEVELS.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION WE COULD
SEE RAIN OR SNOW. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE REGION. AS A RESULT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON. KMKL
CURRENTLY AT MVFR AND THESE CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES WITH REDUCED CIGS. TEMPO INCLUDED
AT KMKL FOR POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET ALONG WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 091738
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
SEE ANY ACCUMULATION BUT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
MAY PICK UP .1 INCH OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY BUT THAT
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR IN THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE
TO BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY NEARING NORMAL LEVELS.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION WE COULD
SEE RAIN OR SNOW. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE REGION. AS A RESULT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON. KMKL
CURRENTLY AT MVFR AND THESE CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES WITH REDUCED CIGS. TEMPO INCLUDED
AT KMKL FOR POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET ALONG WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 091738
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
SEE ANY ACCUMULATION BUT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
MAY PICK UP .1 INCH OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY BUT THAT
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR IN THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE
TO BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY NEARING NORMAL LEVELS.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION WE COULD
SEE RAIN OR SNOW. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE REGION. AS A RESULT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMKL THIS AFTERNOON. KMKL
CURRENTLY AT MVFR AND THESE CONDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING AS LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES WITH REDUCED CIGS. TEMPO INCLUDED
AT KMKL FOR POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. NW
WINDS WILL BE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE AFTER
SUNSET ALONG WITH VFR CONDS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 091155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
555 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
SEE ANY ACCUMULATION BUT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
MAY PICK UP .1 INCH OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY BUT THAT
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR IN THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE
TO BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY NEARING NORMAL LEVELS.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION WE COULD
SEE RAIN OR SNOW. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE REGION. AS A RESULT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

MAINLY VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KMKL ALONG WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL REMAIN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT JBR AND MEM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 091155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
555 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
SEE ANY ACCUMULATION BUT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
MAY PICK UP .1 INCH OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY BUT THAT
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR IN THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE
TO BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY NEARING NORMAL LEVELS.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION WE COULD
SEE RAIN OR SNOW. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE REGION. AS A RESULT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

MAINLY VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KMKL ALONG WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL REMAIN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT JBR AND MEM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 091155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
555 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
SEE ANY ACCUMULATION BUT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
MAY PICK UP .1 INCH OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY BUT THAT
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR IN THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE
TO BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY NEARING NORMAL LEVELS.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION WE COULD
SEE RAIN OR SNOW. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE REGION. AS A RESULT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

MAINLY VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KMKL ALONG WITH LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL REMAIN GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT JBR AND MEM. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT...WITH CLEARING SKIES.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 090902
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
302 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
SEE ANY ACCUMULATION BUT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
MAY PICK UP .1 INCH OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY BUT THAT
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR IN THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE
TO BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY NEARING NORMAL LEVELS.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION WE COULD
SEE RAIN OR SNOW. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE REGION. AS A RESULT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR AT MKL DURING MORNING PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL REMAIN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT JBR AND MEM. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH CLEARING SKIES.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 090902
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
302 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO MID 30S. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS DISTURBANCE MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW MAINLY ACROSS MUCH OF
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
SEE ANY ACCUMULATION BUT SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
MAY PICK UP .1 INCH OF SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE CHILLY
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH
DRY WEATHER AND WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. LOWS
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.
WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN TODAY BUT THAT
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION WHICH WILL BRING MILDER AIR IN THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING FROM THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S. THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AS SOUTH WINDS CONTINUE
TO BRING MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 40S
TO LOWER 50S. FRIDAY WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES
FINALLY NEARING NORMAL LEVELS.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH
LITTLE IF ANY MOISTURE TO DEAL WITH AHEAD OF THE FRONT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION BY SATURDAY BRINGING COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA BY MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE REGION SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THIS PRECIPITATION WE COULD
SEE RAIN OR SNOW. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY PRECIPITATION THAT FALLS
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW. AS THE LOW PULLS OUT OF THE
REGION ON MONDAY...SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO
THE REGION. AS A RESULT ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE
OVER TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR AT MKL DURING MORNING PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL REMAIN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT JBR AND MEM. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH CLEARING SKIES.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 090521
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1121 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP EVENING WORDING AND REMOVE WIND ADVISORY.

DISCUSSION...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
IMPACTING THE MID SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS EVENING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE WHERE A MINOR DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY UPDATING TO CLEAN UP PRE
FIRST PERIOD WORDING AND REMOVE THE WIND ADVISORY. UPDATES TO
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROF COVERING THE EAST/CENTRAL THIRD OF CONTIGUOUS U.S...
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTH/NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH...WITH TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM
THE BEAUFORT SEA...NORTH OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE... GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NORTHEAST AR...AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ELSEWHERE. NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH WAS EVAPORATING IN THE DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO DIURNALLY WEAKEN BUT NOT DIMINISH IN
THE WELL MIXED ARCTIC AIRMASS. WITH THE LOSS OF MODEST SURFACE
HEATING...LAPSE RATES SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR A GRADUAL REDUCTION
IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE. SHOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST LONGEST
NEAR THE TN RIVER...WHERE THE NAM MODEL DEPICTS 280K SATURATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 10 MB. BY 06Z...THE NAM MODEL DEPICTED
NEUTRAL OR NEGATIVE ISENTROPIC NEAR THE TN RIVER AFTER
06Z/MIDNIGHT CST. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A LOCALIZED 1 INCH ABOUT SHOULD A
MORE PERSISTENT BAND SET UP OVER NORTHWEST TN THIS EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROF LIFTING EAST AND COLDER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TUESDAY...
LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AREAS NEAR THE TN RIVER.

COLD TEMPS APPEAR IN ORDER THE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT AN ADDITIONAL ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING
INTO THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY EVENING...UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER PATTERN...AND
TAKES A MORE DIRECT SHOT AT THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIR. THE
LESS AMPLIFIED GFS QUICKLY LIFTS THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE CAROLINAS
BY SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND EVENTUAL
RAIN/SHOW EVENT WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR LOCKED OVER THE MIDSOUTH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SNOW EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO OHIO VALLEY. THE MODEL BLENDED
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED COLDER FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AND APPEAR ON THE
CORRECT PATH...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF FRIDAY NIGHT/S ARCTIC COLD
FRONT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR AT MKL DURING MORNING PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL REMAIN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT JBR AND MEM. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH CLEARING SKIES.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 090521
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1121 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP EVENING WORDING AND REMOVE WIND ADVISORY.

DISCUSSION...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
IMPACTING THE MID SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS EVENING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE WHERE A MINOR DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY UPDATING TO CLEAN UP PRE
FIRST PERIOD WORDING AND REMOVE THE WIND ADVISORY. UPDATES TO
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROF COVERING THE EAST/CENTRAL THIRD OF CONTIGUOUS U.S...
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTH/NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH...WITH TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM
THE BEAUFORT SEA...NORTH OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE... GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NORTHEAST AR...AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ELSEWHERE. NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH WAS EVAPORATING IN THE DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO DIURNALLY WEAKEN BUT NOT DIMINISH IN
THE WELL MIXED ARCTIC AIRMASS. WITH THE LOSS OF MODEST SURFACE
HEATING...LAPSE RATES SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR A GRADUAL REDUCTION
IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE. SHOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST LONGEST
NEAR THE TN RIVER...WHERE THE NAM MODEL DEPICTS 280K SATURATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 10 MB. BY 06Z...THE NAM MODEL DEPICTED
NEUTRAL OR NEGATIVE ISENTROPIC NEAR THE TN RIVER AFTER
06Z/MIDNIGHT CST. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A LOCALIZED 1 INCH ABOUT SHOULD A
MORE PERSISTENT BAND SET UP OVER NORTHWEST TN THIS EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROF LIFTING EAST AND COLDER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TUESDAY...
LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AREAS NEAR THE TN RIVER.

COLD TEMPS APPEAR IN ORDER THE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT AN ADDITIONAL ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING
INTO THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY EVENING...UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER PATTERN...AND
TAKES A MORE DIRECT SHOT AT THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIR. THE
LESS AMPLIFIED GFS QUICKLY LIFTS THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE CAROLINAS
BY SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND EVENTUAL
RAIN/SHOW EVENT WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR LOCKED OVER THE MIDSOUTH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SNOW EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO OHIO VALLEY. THE MODEL BLENDED
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED COLDER FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AND APPEAR ON THE
CORRECT PATH...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF FRIDAY NIGHT/S ARCTIC COLD
FRONT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR AT MKL DURING MORNING PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL REMAIN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT JBR AND MEM. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH CLEARING SKIES.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 090521
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1121 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO CLEAN UP EVENING WORDING AND REMOVE WIND ADVISORY.

DISCUSSION...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT
LAKES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TONIGHT WITH CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
IMPACTING THE MID SOUTH. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
FLOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA THIS EVENING AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
TENNESSEE WHERE A MINOR DUSTING CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING.

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AND ONLY UPDATING TO CLEAN UP PRE
FIRST PERIOD WORDING AND REMOVE THE WIND ADVISORY. UPDATES TO
PRODUCTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MIDAFTERNOON GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER
LEVEL TROF COVERING THE EAST/CENTRAL THIRD OF CONTIGUOUS U.S...
CENTERED OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. NORTH/NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW
PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH...WITH TRAJECTORIES ORIGINATING FROM
THE BEAUFORT SEA...NORTH OF ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE... GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS PREVAILED NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
NORTHEAST AR...AND BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ELSEWHERE. NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...SOME OF WHICH WAS EVAPORATING IN THE DRY
SUB CLOUD LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT WINDS TO DIURNALLY WEAKEN BUT NOT DIMINISH IN
THE WELL MIXED ARCTIC AIRMASS. WITH THE LOSS OF MODEST SURFACE
HEATING...LAPSE RATES SHOULD WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR A GRADUAL REDUCTION
IN SNOW SHOWER COVERAGE. SHOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST LONGEST
NEAR THE TN RIVER...WHERE THE NAM MODEL DEPICTS 280K SATURATION
PRESSURE DEFICITS LESS THAN 10 MB. BY 06Z...THE NAM MODEL DEPICTED
NEUTRAL OR NEGATIVE ISENTROPIC NEAR THE TN RIVER AFTER
06Z/MIDNIGHT CST. AT THIS TIME...LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT A LOCALIZED 1 INCH ABOUT SHOULD A
MORE PERSISTENT BAND SET UP OVER NORTHWEST TN THIS EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER TROF LIFTING EAST AND COLDER LOW
LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TUESDAY...
LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO AREAS NEAR THE TN RIVER.

COLD TEMPS APPEAR IN ORDER THE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT AN ADDITIONAL ARCTIC COLD FRONT ARRIVING
INTO THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY EVENING...UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER PATTERN...AND
TAKES A MORE DIRECT SHOT AT THE MIDSOUTH WITH THE ARCTIC AIR. THE
LESS AMPLIFIED GFS QUICKLY LIFTS THE ARCTIC HIGH TO THE CAROLINAS
BY SUNDAY...WITH SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AND EVENTUAL
RAIN/SHOW EVENT WITH A PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR LOCKED OVER THE MIDSOUTH ON
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SNOW EVENT ASSOCIATED WITH A RELATIVELY
STRONG SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO OHIO VALLEY. THE MODEL BLENDED
SOLUTIONS HAVE TRENDED COLDER FOR NEXT WEEKEND...AND APPEAR ON THE
CORRECT PATH...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF FRIDAY NIGHT/S ARCTIC COLD
FRONT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR AT MKL DURING MORNING PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. THE BIGGEST CONCERN WILL REMAIN GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS AT JBR AND MEM. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH CLEARING SKIES.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





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