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000
FXUS64 KMEG 311111
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
611 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

EARLY SEASON ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN. 08Z/3 AM CDT SURFACE MAP SHOWED THIS FRONT NEAR
A KANSAS CITY TO CHICAGO LINE. A 1038MB SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WERE TEMPS PREVAILED IN THE
TEENS.

UNLIKE MOST EARLY SEASON FREEZE EVENTS IN THE MIDSOUTH...IN WHICH
CALM WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING DOMINATE...TONIGHT WILL SEE A
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION. AS SUCH... EXPECT LESS OF
A TERRAIN OR URBAN HEAT ISLAND TEMPERATURE INFLUENCE...AND LESS
TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY TO CLOUD COVER. WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED
BY THE NAM TO RANGE BETWEEN MINUS 1C AN MINUS 3C... HAVE UPGRADED
TONIGHT/S FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AREAWIDE. IF WINDS STAY
UP AS EXPECTED...WIND CHILLS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S
NEAR SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.

THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO AN
TENNESSEE VALLEYS TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVER
THE MIDSOUTH. UNDER CLEAR SKIES.. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE MEMPHIS URBAN HEAT ISLAND.
WITH THE GROWING SEASON ENDED...FREEZE HEADLINES ARE TYPICALLY
SUSPENDED FOR THE SEASON FOLLOWING THE FIRST OCCURRENCE.
HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE FREEZE HEADLINES /FREEZE
WATCH/ FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THAT IT IS PART OF THE SAME
EVENT. SEASONAL SUSPENSION OF FREEZE HEADLINES CAN THEN BE
EVALUATED FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND/S EVENT.

THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
AROUND THE RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH...ACCOMPANIED BY BUILDING
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS. MILD TEMPS AND WARMER DEWPOINTS WILL PREVAIL
AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING MIDWEEK PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE IT WASHES OUT UNDER WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUFFERS A BIT FOR THE LATE NEXT WEEK... AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE HANDLING OF A
CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR SOUTHERN PLAINS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

MORNING FOG AT KMKL SHOULD LIFT SHORTLY. MEANWHILE EXPECT A BAND
OF CLOUDS WITH CIGS BETWEEN 3500-5000FT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MIDSOUTH TODAY ALONG A COLD FRONT. CAN/T RULE OUT CIGS BRIEFLY
DROPPING TO MVFR AT KMKL WITH ISOLATED SHRAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP
VFR AND JUST MENTION VCSH. WINDS WILL BECOME STRONG FROM THE NNW
AROUND 15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-28 KTS BETWEEN
14-18Z. SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN 23-04Z. OVERNIGHT...EXPECT NW
WINDS OF 6-10 KTS.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 310851
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
351 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY SEASON ARCTIC COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN. 08Z/3 AM CDT SURFACE MAP SHOWED THIS FRONT NEAR A
KANSAS CITY TO CHICAGO LINE. A 1038MB SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WAS
LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...WERE TEMPS PREVAILED IN THE
TEENS.

UNLIKE MOST EARLY SEASON FREEZE EVENTS IN THE MIDSOUTH...IN WHICH
CALM WINDS AND RADIATIONAL COOLING DOMINATE...TONIGHT WILL SEE A
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND COLD ADVECTION. AS SUCH... EXPECT LESS OF
A TERRAIN OR URBAN HEAT ISLAND TEMPERATURE INFLUENCE...AND LESS
TEMPERATURE SENSITIVITY TO CLOUD COVER. WITH 925MB TEMPS PROGGED
BY THE NAM TO RANGE BETWEEN MINUS 1C AN MINUS 3C... HAVE UPGRADED
TONIGHT/S FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING AREAWIDE. IF WINDS STAY
UP AS EXPECTED...WIND CHILLS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 20S
NEAR SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING.

THE CENTER OF THE ARCTIC HIGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE OHIO AN
TENNESSEE VALLEYS TONIGHT...LEADING TO LIGHT OR CALM WINDS OVER
THE MIDSOUTH. UNDER CLEAR SKIES.. THE DRY AIRMASS WILL LIKELY
COOL TO BELOW FREEZING AWAY FROM THE MEMPHIS URBAN HEAT ISLAND.
WITH THE GROWING SEASON ENDED...FREEZE HEADLINES ARE TYPICALLY
SUSPENDED FOR THE SEASON FOLLOWING THE FIRST OCCURRENCE.
HOWEVER...HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE THE FREEZE HEADLINES /FREEZE
WATCH/ FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THAT IT IS PART OF THE SAME
EVENT. SEASONAL SUSPENSION OF FREEZE HEADLINES CAN THEN BE
EVALUATED FOLLOWING THIS WEEKEND/S EVENT.

THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WILL SEE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOP
AROUND THE RETREATING ARCTIC HIGH...ACCOMPANIED BY BUILDING
MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS. MILD TEMPS AND WARMER DEWPOINTS WILL PREVAIL
AHEAD OF A SLOWLY APPROACHING MIDWEEK PACIFIC COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED TO PERHAPS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE IT WASHES OUT UNDER WEAKENING FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE SUFFERS A BIT FOR THE LATE NEXT WEEK... AS THE
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIVERGE WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE HANDLING OF A
CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES OR SOUTHERN PLAINS.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTENING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
DURING THE PAST HOUR...MKL TERMINAL BEARING THE BRUNT OF THIS
ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL ITSELF. AFTER THIS
PASSES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
12Z TOMORROW INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TOWARD 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
     BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 310442
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1142 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
THIS IS KICKING OFF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE MIDSOUTH. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH USHERING IN THE CHILLIEST AIR OF THE FALL
SEASON SO FAR.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE COLD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY... TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
KNQA RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL... DOUBT ANY PRECIP IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO A REALLY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

SHORT TERM...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS BEING INTRODUCED IN OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE REGION WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS
ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE NORTH. WE WILL SEE OUR COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON AS A RESULT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTING
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST IN THE AREAS NEAREST
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 925 MB TEMPS AT -2 AND 850MB AT -4 AREA WIDE
CORRELATE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE MEMPHIS METRO MAY BE THE ONLY
CLIMATE STATION TO ESCAPE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH 9 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY AND BACK TO NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE SLOWING OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO TEXAS
APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL LEAVE US
WITH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JPM3

&&

AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW LIGHTENING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
DURING THE PAST HOUR...MKL TERMINAL BEARING THE BRUNT OF THIS
ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF INTERMITTENT SHOWERS. ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINAL ITSELF. AFTER THIS
PASSES...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER
12Z TOMORROW INTO THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TOWARD 25 KT.
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE AFTER 00Z SATURDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMEG 310155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
855 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS DROPPING INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
THIS IS KICKING OFF ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE MIDSOUTH. LATEST SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TENNESSEE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH USHERING IN THE CHILLIEST AIR OF THE FALL
SEASON SO FAR.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE COLD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY... TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
KNQA RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL... DOUBT ANY PRECIP IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO A REALLY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

SHORT TERM...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS BEING INTRODUCED IN OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE REGION WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS
ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE NORTH. WE WILL SEE OUR COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON AS A RESULT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTING
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST IN THE AREAS NEAREST
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 925 MB TEMPS AT -2 AND 850MB AT -4 AREA WIDE
CORRELATE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE MEMPHIS METRO MAY BE THE ONLY
CLIMATE STATION TO ESCAPE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH 9 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY AND BACK TO NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE SLOWING OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO TEXAS
APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL LEAVE US
WITH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

HAVE BEEN WATCHING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WORK WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS REACHING THE
GROUND DUE TO VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT
SHOWERS OUT OF TAFS. MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY ARE THE WINDS WHICH
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 302323 CCA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...CORRECTED TO REMOVE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE COLD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY... TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
KNQA RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL... DOUBT ANY PRECIP IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO A REALLY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

SHORT TERM...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS BEING INTRODUCED IN OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE REGION WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS
ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE NORTH. WE WILL SEE OUR COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON AS A RESULT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTING
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST IN THE AREAS NEAREST
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 925 MB TEMPS AT -2 AND 850MB AT -4 AREA WIDE
CORRELATE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE MEMPHIS METRO MAY BE THE ONLY
CLIMATE STATION TO ESCAPE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH 9 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY AND BACK TO NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE SLOWING OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO TEXAS
APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL LEAVE US
WITH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

HAVE BEEN WATCHING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WORK WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS REACHING THE
GROUND DUE TO VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT
SHOWERS OUT OF TAFS. MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY ARE THE WINDS WHICH
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR      CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR      DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR      ALCORN-BENTON
MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-     LAFAYETTE-LEE
MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
YALOBUSHA.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
FOR      BENTON
TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMEG 302320
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 408 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE COLD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY... TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
KNQA RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL... DOUBT ANY PRECIP IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO A REALLY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

SHORT TERM...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS BEING INTRODUCED IN OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE REGION WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS
ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE NORTH. WE WILL SEE OUR COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON AS A RESULT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTING
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST IN THE AREAS NEAREST
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 925 MB TEMPS AT -2 AND 850MB AT -4 AREA WIDE
CORRELATE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE MEMPHIS METRO MAY BE THE ONLY
CLIMATE STATION TO ESCAPE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH 9 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY AND BACK TO NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE SLOWING OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO TEXAS
APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL LEAVE US
WITH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JPM3

AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS
INITIALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL TRANSITION TO BE FROM A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT SO NO MENTION OF
PRECIP AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CLOUDS AND DRIER NEAR
SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A STRONG AND
COLD HIGH INBOUND.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

HAVE BEEN WATCHING LIGHT RADAR RETURNS WORK WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE TERMINALS...HOWEVER LITTLE TO NO PRECIP IS REACHING THE
GROUND DUE TO VERY DRY LOW LEVELS. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE LEFT
SHOWERS OUT OF TAFS. MAIN CONCERN FOR FRIDAY ARE THE WINDS WHICH
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15KT RANGE WITH GUSTS FROM 25 TO 30 KTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE DURING THE EVENING
HOURS FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMEG 302108
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
408 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE COLD
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH AN
ARCTIC AIR MASS THAT WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO THE REGION BEHIND
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY... TEMPERATURES AROUND THE
REGION ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST.
KNQA RADAR SHOWS LIGHT SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHEASTERN
ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOT HEEL... DOUBT ANY PRECIP IS
ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO A REALLY DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

SHORT TERM...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT FROM THE WEST.
THE REGION WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
WITH ONLY SLIGHT POPS BEING INTRODUCED IN OUR NORTHERN MOST
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. THE REGION WILL CLEAR QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS
ARCTIC AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL BE GUSTY AND FROM THE NORTH. WE WILL SEE OUR COLDEST
TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON AS A RESULT OF THE COLD AIR ADVECTING
FROM THE NORTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLDEST IN THE AREAS NEAREST
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. 925 MB TEMPS AT -2 AND 850MB AT -4 AREA WIDE
CORRELATE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE MEMPHIS METRO MAY BE THE ONLY
CLIMATE STATION TO ESCAPE SUB-FREEZING TEMPS SATURDAY MORNING. A
FREEZE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MIDNIGHT FRIDAY THROUGH 9 AM
SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 50 DEGREES
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
WILL BE EVEN COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT DUE TO RADIATIONAL
COOLING. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST AND WINDS TURN SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY AND BACK TO NORMAL VALUES BY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM...

MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE ON THE SLOWING OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
MID WEEK NEXT WEEK. PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS A FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM SOUTHERN ONTARIO INTO TEXAS
APPROACHES THE MID SOUTH. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL LEAVE US
WITH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

JPM3

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS
INITIALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL TRANSITION TO BE FROM A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT SO NO MENTION OF
PRECIP AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CLOUDS AND DRIER NEAR
SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A STRONG AND
COLD HIGH INBOUND.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     ALCORN-BENTON MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-
     LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-
     QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-
     YALOBUSHA.

TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR
     BENTON TN-CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-
     GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 301742
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1242 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAS CAUSED
FOR A COOL CLEAR MORNING THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION AS OF
1030 AM... EXCEPT NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE READINGS IN THE
40S CAN STILL BE FOUND. FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK... ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE. DECREASED HIGHS FOR THURSDAY 1 DEGREE AREA
WIDE AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS BEFORE 00Z FOR OUR NORTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JPM3


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A 1021 MB RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND 40S ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT...FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S INTO THE
40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND APPROACHING CURRENT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THUS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND PERHAPS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS MAY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SLOWER PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT
BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST AND KEPT THUNDER
MENTION TO A MINIMUM. LONG TERM MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS FRONT BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
AT THIS POINT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS
INITIALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL TRANSITION TO BE FROM A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT SO NO MENTION OF
PRECIP AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CLOUDS AND DRIER NEAR
SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A STRONG AND
COLD HIGH INBOUND.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 301742
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1242 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAS CAUSED
FOR A COOL CLEAR MORNING THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION AS OF
1030 AM... EXCEPT NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE READINGS IN THE
40S CAN STILL BE FOUND. FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK... ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE. DECREASED HIGHS FOR THURSDAY 1 DEGREE AREA
WIDE AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS BEFORE 00Z FOR OUR NORTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JPM3


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A 1021 MB RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND 40S ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT...FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S INTO THE
40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND APPROACHING CURRENT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THUS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND PERHAPS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS MAY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SLOWER PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT
BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST AND KEPT THUNDER
MENTION TO A MINIMUM. LONG TERM MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS FRONT BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
AT THIS POINT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE PERIOD. WINDS
INITIALLY FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION WILL TRANSITION TO BE FROM A
MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT SO NO MENTION OF
PRECIP AT THIS TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CLOUDS AND DRIER NEAR
SURFACE ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY PROHIBIT FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE IN THE PERIOD AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A STRONG AND
COLD HIGH INBOUND.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 301452
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
952 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY HAS CAUSED
FOR A COOL CLEAR MORNING THROUGHOUT THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE REGION AS OF
1030 AM... EXCEPT NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE READINGS IN THE
40S CAN STILL BE FOUND. FORECAST SEEMS TO BE ON TRACK... ONLY
MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE. DECREASED HIGHS FOR THURSDAY 1 DEGREE AREA
WIDE AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED POPS BEFORE 00Z FOR OUR NORTHERN-MOST
COUNTIES DUE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

JPM3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A 1021 MB RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND 40S ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT...FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S INTO THE
40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND APPROACHING CURRENT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THUS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND PERHAPS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS MAY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SLOWER PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT
BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST AND KEPT THUNDER
MENTION TO A MINIMUM. LONG TERM MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS FRONT BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
AT THIS POINT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

CJC

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES AFTER 06Z AT JBR... A FEW HOURS LATER AT MEM.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 301133 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
633 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A 1021 MB RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND 40S ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT...FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S INTO THE
40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND APPROACHING CURRENT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THUS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND PERHAPS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS MAY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SLOWER PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT
BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST AND KEPT THUNDER
MENTION TO A MINIMUM. LONG TERM MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS FRONT BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
AT THIS POINT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES AFTER 06Z AT JBR... A FEW HOURS LATER AT MEM.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 300916
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
416 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING PLACES A 1021 MB RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THIS IS RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND
TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE
TENNESSEE RIVER AND 40S ELSEWHERE. RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT...FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST
ARE THE PREDOMINANT CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING HAVE FALLEN INTO THE UPPER 30S INTO THE
40S ACROSS THE MID SOUTH AND APPROACHING CURRENT SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. THUS...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS MANY
LOCATIONS. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT
GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT TODAY. SHORT TERM MODELS
INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE AND PERHAPS THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ON
FRIDAY RANGING FROM THE LOWER 50S NORTH AND UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE ANTICIPATED TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS THE AREA. THESE LOW
TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS MAY RESULT IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FROST AND POSSIBLY A FREEZE. LATER SHIFTS WILL
CONSIDER FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES IF THESE TRENDS CONTINUE IN
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...GFS/ECMWF LONG TERM
MODELS INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE A SLOWER PROGRESSION ACROSS THE REGION AS THE FRONT
BECOMES NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ALOFT. OVERALL
INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MINIMAL AT BEST AND KEPT THUNDER
MENTION TO A MINIMUM. LONG TERM MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THIS FRONT BUT BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN
AT THIS POINT WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

CJC
&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS MKL AND
TUP. CURRENTLY EXPECTING INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS BEGINNING
AROUND 08Z LASTING THROUGH 12Z. FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 300433
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1133 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 835 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. A LITTLE
WARMER IN MEMPHIS. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NEAR THE
TN RIVER AND NE MS. TWEAKED TEMPS IN A COUPLE SPOTS OTRW FORECAST
ON TRACK.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS THE HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE
SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE GREEDY WITH MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT POPS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OTHERWISE CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTANT STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WINDS FOR FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE MIDSOUTH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE PLEASANT AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE AREA...THUS SOME
AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A FROST OR POTENTIALLY EVEN A FREEZE. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...BRINGING OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. GUIDANCE IS SLOW WITH THIS FRONT...THUS HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN TERMINALS MKL AND
TUP. CURRENTLY EXPECTING INTERMITTENT VSBY REDUCTIONS BEGINNING
AROUND 08Z LASTING THROUGH 12Z. FOG WILL DISSIPATE SHORTLY
THEREAFTER WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$












000
FXUS64 KMEG 300135
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
835 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL HELP TEMPS DROP INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE. A LITTLE
WARMER IN MEMPHIS. PATCHY GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NEAR THE
TN RIVER AND NE MS. TWEAKED TEMPS IN A COUPLE SPOTS OTRW FORECAST
ON TRACK.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS THE HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE
SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE GREEDY WITH MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT POPS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OTHERWISE CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTANT STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WINDS FOR FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE MIDSOUTH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE PLEASANT AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE AREA...THUS SOME
AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A FROST OR POTENTIALLY EVEN A FREEZE. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...BRINGING OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. GUIDANCE IS SLOW WITH THIS FRONT...THUS HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH PATCHY
FOG AND INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS THE MAIN CONCERN...MOSTLY
AT THE MKL AND TUP TERMINALS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...FOG WILL LIFT
QUICKLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 292317
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
617 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS THE HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE
SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE GREEDY WITH MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT POPS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OTHERWISE CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTANT STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WINDS FOR FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE MIDSOUTH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE PLEASANT AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE AREA...THUS SOME
AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A FROST OR POTENTIALLY EVEN A FREEZE. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...BRINGING OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. GUIDANCE IS SLOW WITH THIS FRONT...THUS HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD WITH PATCHY
FOG AND INTERMITTENT REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS THE MAIN CONCERN...MOSTLY
AT THE MKL AND TUP TERMINALS. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE...FOG WILL LIFT
QUICKLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 292054
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS EXTENDS A COLD FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND ALONG THE GULF COAST WHILE A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS
LOCATED OVER EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH ARE
MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE 40S TONIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES.

AS THE HIGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS SHIFTS EAST OVER
OUR REGION ON THURSDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PLEASANT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S...AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE FROM THE
SOUTH BY MID AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ATTENDANT SURFACE FRONT APPROACH THE
REGION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. MODELS
ARE GREEDY WITH MOISTURE WITH THIS FRONT...SO HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
SLIGHT POPS FOR THE EXTREME NORTHEAST REGIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. OTHERWISE CLOUDINESS WILL DECREASE ON FRIDAY AS A POTENT
SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE RESULTANT STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED WINDS FOR FRIDAY AS MUCH COOLER
AIR FILTERS INTO THE MIDSOUTH.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL CREATE PLEASANT AND RAIN FREE CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES ON BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY MORNINGS WILL BE
IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE AREA...THUS SOME
AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE A FROST OR POTENTIALLY EVEN A FREEZE. HIGHS
ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S...BUT WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ON
SUNDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...BRINGING OUR
NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN. GUIDANCE IS SLOW WITH THIS FRONT...THUS HAVE
INCLUDED POPS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH MORNING LIGHT FOG CAUSING
IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY AT MKL...TUP AND JBR. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 7-10
KTS WILL DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET...THEN VEER EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 291732
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1232 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS HAVE
TAKEN HIGHS TODAY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME AREAS. OTHER THAN
THAT THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

ZDM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
EASTERN TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S
NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY BORDER TO THE MIDDLE 50S/60S NEAR
MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK ARE THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A 1024 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS TONIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AT BEST AND HAVE CONTINUED A RAIN FREE FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN 0 TO -5C...RESULTING IN LOWS BY
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IF WINDS DECOUPLE DURING THE NIGHT. A GRADUAL MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LONG TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT HAS TRENDED ABOUT 12-24 HOURS
SLOWER AS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALOFT AND SUGGESTING FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS NEXT WEDNESDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH MORNING LIGHT FOG CAUSING
IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY AT MKL...TUP AND JBR. NORTHERLY WINDS AT 7-10
KTS WILL DIMINISH NEAR SUNSET...THEN VEER EAST TO SOUTHEAST LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 291439
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
939 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...

CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION. BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS HAVE
TAKEN HIGHS TODAY DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO IN SOME AREAS. OTHER THAN
THAT THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK.

ZDM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
EASTERN TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S
NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY BORDER TO THE MIDDLE 50S/60S NEAR
MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK ARE THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A 1024 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS TONIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AT BEST AND HAVE CONTINUED A RAIN FREE FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN 0 TO -5C...RESULTING IN LOWS BY
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IF WINDS DECOUPLE DURING THE NIGHT. A GRADUAL MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LONG TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT HAS TRENDED ABOUT 12-24 HOURS
SLOWER AS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALOFT AND SUGGESTING FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS NEXT WEDNESDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

LOW LEVEL PATCHY GROUND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF THROUGH 14Z...AS
20-25KT WINDS NEAR FL010 MIX DOWN. THEREAFTER...VFR AND LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
EXPECTED FOR LATE EVENING MEM CARGO OPS.

PWB
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 291143 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 436 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
EASTERN TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S
NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY BORDER TO THE MIDDLE 50S/60S NEAR
MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK ARE THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A 1024 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS TONIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AT BEST AND HAVE CONTINUED A RAIN FREE FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY.

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN 0 TO -5C...RESULTING IN LOWS BY
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IF WINDS DECOUPLE DURING THE NIGHT. A GRADUAL MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LONG TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT HAS TRENDED ABOUT 12-24 HOURS
SLOWER AS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALOFT AND SUGGESTING FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS NEXT WEDNESDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

LOW LEVEL PATCHY GROUND FOG SHOULD BURN OFF THROUGH 14Z...AS
20-25KT WINDS NEAR FL010 MIX DOWN. THEREAFTER...VFR AND LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
EXPECTED FOR LATE EVENING MEM CARGO OPS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 290936
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
436 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM
EASTERN TENNESSEE BACK THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND NORTHEAST
AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS INDICATE A
MAJORITY OF THE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
MOVED TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS OF 4 AM
CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 40S
NEAR THE MISSOURI/KENTUCKY BORDER TO THE MIDDLE 50S/60S NEAR
MONROE COUNTY MISSISSIPPI. FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL TOWARDS THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK ARE THE
PREDOMINANT FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TAPER OFF THIS MORNING AS A 1024 MB RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 60S WITH LOWS TONIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
LIMITED AT BEST AND HAVE CONTINUED A RAIN FREE FORECAST INTO
FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...00Z GFS/ECMWF LONG
TERM MODELS INDICATE MUCH COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS FRIDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROP TO BETWEEN 0 TO -5C...RESULTING IN LOWS BY
SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 30S AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE 50S.
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT IF WINDS DECOUPLE DURING THE NIGHT. A GRADUAL MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. LONG TERM MODELS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
FOR EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BUT HAS TRENDED ABOUT 12-24 HOURS
SLOWER AS THE FRONT WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW
ALOFT AND SUGGESTING FRONTAL PASSAGE TOWARDS NEXT WEDNESDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TOWARDS THE END OF THE LONG
TERM FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

CJC
&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KJBR THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AS SKIES CLEAR OUT.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KMEM AND KMKL AS SHRAS
AND EMBEDDED TSRAS COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
KTUP WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH SHRAS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSRAS POSSIBLE. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 29/12Z THERE. WINDS WILL BE NNE 5-7 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 290439
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1139 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO
STUTTGART ARKANSAS. SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE...WILL UPDATE AROUND MIDNIGHT TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF LZK TO MEG
TO CKV. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC FRONTAL ZONE ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH WARM SECTOR READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
HOWEVER SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN
MS...ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNCAPPED
AND RESULTANT OF THE INSTABILITY...SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH
LIGHTENING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS.

SOME REMNANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL ZONE SO HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN SHOWERY IN NATURE AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TRUE THROUGH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTHEAST HOWEVER
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHEAST MS
THROUGH 18Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY 00Z THURSDAY. IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF HAS COME IN COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH FROST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE IN FAVORED
AREAS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED WORDING
TO THE HWO AND WILL DEFER TO FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE HEAVILY IF NEED BE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS TEND TO BE ERRATIC AND INCONSISTENT WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS WITH REGARD TO TIMING BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT NEXT
WEEK COULD BE WET.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
AT KJBR THOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AS SKIES CLEAR OUT.
CONDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR AT KMEM AND KMKL AS SHRAS
AND EMBEDDED TSRAS COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
KTUP WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WITH SHRAS AND A FEW EMBEDDED TSRAS POSSIBLE. CONDS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 29/12Z THERE. WINDS WILL BE NNE 5-7 KTS
BEHIND THE FRONT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 290241
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
941 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO
STUTTGART ARKANSAS. SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO STREAM UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A GOOD
HANDLE...WILL UPDATE AROUND MIDNIGHT TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF LZK TO MEG
TO CKV. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC FRONTAL ZONE ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH WARM SECTOR READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
HOWEVER SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN
MS...ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNCAPPED
AND RESULTANT OF THE INSTABILITY...SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH
LIGHTENING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS.

SOME REMNANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL ZONE SO HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN SHOWERY IN NATURE AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TRUE THROUGH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTHEAST HOWEVER
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHEAST MS
THROUGH 18Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY 00Z THURSDAY. IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF HAS COME IN COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH FROST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE IN FAVORED
AREAS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED WORDING
TO THE HWO AND WILL DEFER TO FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE HEAVILY IF NEED BE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS TEND TO BE ERRATIC AND INCONSISTENT WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS WITH REGARD TO TIMING BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT NEXT
WEEK COULD BE WET.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

COLD FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLEL AND JUST SOUTH OF I-40. FRONT IS WELL
SOUTH OF KJBR SO VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THERE. MVFR/IFR CONDS
HAVE WORKED INTO KMEM AND KMKL WITH SHRAS AND AN EMBEDDED TSRA OR
TWO. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 29/04Z WITH CONDS
IMPROVING TO VFR THEREAFTER. KTUP WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SHRAS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
TSRAS POSSIBLE. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 29/12Z. WINDS
WILL BE NNE 5-7 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 282337
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
637 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF LZK TO MEG
TO CKV. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC FRONTAL ZONE ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH WARM SECTOR READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
HOWEVER SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN
MS...ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNCAPPED
AND RESULTANT OF THE INSTABILITY...SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH
LIGHTENING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS.

SOME REMNANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL ZONE SO HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN SHOWERY IN NATURE AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TRUE THROUGH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTHEAST HOWEVER
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHEAST MS
THROUGH 18Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY 00Z THURSDAY. IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF HAS COME IN COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH FROST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE IN FAVORED
AREAS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED WORDING
TO THE HWO AND WILL DEFER TO FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE HEAVILY IF NEED BE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS TEND TO BE ERRATIC AND INCONSISTENT WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS WITH REGARD TO TIMING BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT NEXT
WEEK COULD BE WET.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

COLD FRONT ROUGHLY PARALLEL AND JUST SOUTH OF I-40. FRONT IS WELL
SOUTH OF KJBR SO VFR CONDS SHOULD PREVAIL THERE. MVFR/IFR CONDS
HAVE WORKED INTO KMEM AND KMKL WITH SHRAS AND AN EMBEDDED TSRA OR
TWO. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 29/04Z WITH CONDS
IMPROVING TO VFR THEREAFTER. KTUP WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR/IFR
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH SHRAS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
TSRAS POSSIBLE. CONDS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND 29/12Z. WINDS
WILL BE NNE 5-7 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 282027
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CURRENT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIMING THE PASSAGE OF THE
BOUNDARY THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT...

FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST SOUTH OF LZK TO MEG
TO CKV. TEMPERATURES ALONG AND BEHIND THE SFC FRONTAL ZONE ARE IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH WARM SECTOR READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S. CLOUD COVER HAS LIMITED DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
HOWEVER SOME SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN
MS...ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNCAPPED
AND RESULTANT OF THE INSTABILITY...SOME STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MANAGED TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WITHIN THIS
ENVIRONMENT. THESE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS WITH
LIGHTENING AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN THE MAIN THREATS.

SOME REMNANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY EXISTS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL ZONE SO HAVE LEFT THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THROUGH
THIS EVENING. RAINFALL HAS BEEN SHOWERY IN NATURE AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD TRUE THROUGH THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

FOR TOMORROW...THE FRONT WILL HAVE PUSHED WELL SOUTHEAST HOWEVER
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS AREAS OF NORTHEAST MS
THROUGH 18Z...ALL AREAS SHOULD BE RAIN-FREE BY 00Z THURSDAY. IN
THE MEDIUM RANGE...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. THE
ECMWF HAS COME IN COLDER FOR THE WEEKEND...NAMELY SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH FROST IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FREEZE IN FAVORED
AREAS OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...HAVE ADDED WORDING
TO THE HWO AND WILL DEFER TO FUTURE FORECAST SHIFTS TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS POTENTIAL MORE HEAVILY IF NEED BE.

IN THE LONG RANGE...MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MODELS TEND TO BE ERRATIC AND INCONSISTENT WITH THESE TYPE OF
SYSTEMS WITH REGARD TO TIMING BUT THERE IS A SIGNAL THAT NEXT
WEEK COULD BE WET.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

PRECIPITATION WITH PASSING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT MEM AND MKL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
VCTS OUT OF THE TAFS. BRUNT OF RAINFALL...TO INCLUDE A BETTER
THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL AFFECT TUP THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
MAINLY BE MVFR...ESPECIALLY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT
WHEN IFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO TUP. VFR WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AT JBR...MEM AND MKL. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER NORTHEAST.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$















000
FXUS64 KMEG 281725
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1003 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

UPDATE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS ONGOING IN A BAND EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
AR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BOOTHEEL OF MO AND WEST TN. LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THIS MORNING...HOWEVER SOME
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS THE
CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT SINKS SOUTHEAST. TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS ON TRACK SO THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO LOWER THE HIGHS A BIT AS CLOUD COVER IS INHIBITING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AS
OF 4 AM CDT...RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT
CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WEDNESDAY)...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AS A COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
AREA DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NORTH OF
I-40 THIS MORNING AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW AS OVERALL FORCING/INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
MINIMAL AT BEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DEPART
THE MID SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE CONTINUED A
RAIN FREE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE 50S AND PERHAPS A POTENTIAL FOR FROST
SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

PRECIPITATION WITH PASSING COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT MEM AND MKL
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WITH THUNDERSTORM THREAT LOW ENOUGH TO LEAVE
VCTS OUT OF THE TAFS. BRUNT OF RAINFALL...TO INCLUDE A BETTER
THREAT FOR THUNDER WILL AFFECT TUP THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
MAINLY BE MVFR...ESPECIALLY FOR A PERIOD OF TIME BEHIND THE FRONT
AND WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE LATER TONIGHT
WHEN IFR CIGS WILL MOVE INTO TUP. VFR WEATHER WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AT JBR...MEM AND MKL. SOUTHWEST TO WEST
WINDS AT 5-10 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER NORTHEAST.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 281503
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1003 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IS ONGOING IN A BAND EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL
AR NORTHEAST THROUGH THE BOOTHEEL OF MO AND WEST TN. LIGHTNING
STRIKES HAVE BEEN FEW AND FAR BETWEEN THIS MORNING...HOWEVER SOME
CONTINUED DESTABILIZATION ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE MAY CONTRIBUTE TO
MUCAPES APPROACHING 500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SUPPORTS THE
CONTINUED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AS IT SINKS SOUTHEAST. TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION STILL LOOKS ON TRACK SO THE ONLY ADJUSTMENT TO THE
FORECAST WAS TO LOWER THE HIGHS A BIT AS CLOUD COVER IS INHIBITING
MUCH IN THE WAY OF SOLAR HEATING.

TVT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AS
OF 4 AM CDT...RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT
CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WEDNESDAY)...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AS A COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
AREA DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NORTH OF
I-40 THIS MORNING AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW AS OVERALL FORCING/INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
MINIMAL AT BEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DEPART
THE MID SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE CONTINUED A
RAIN FREE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE 50S AND PERHAPS A POTENTIAL FOR FROST
SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CJC

&&

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

SURFACE COLD FRONT APPEARS ON TRACK TO REACH AN MEM/MKL LINE BY
18Z. SCATTERED SHRA WILL PREVAIL NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT...
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TS NEAR OR SHORTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD BE MAINLY POST FRONTAL...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN THIS EVENING AT JBR AND LATER...MEM AND MKL.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$











000
FXUS64 KMEG 281153 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
653 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER NORTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH INTO ILLINOIS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...AND CENTRAL TEXAS. AS
OF 4 AM CDT...RAIN SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO ENTER NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGH TONIGHT...COOLER TEMPERATURES TOWARDS
THE BEGINNING OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...AND A RETURN OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE THE PREDOMINANT
CHALLENGES IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND WEDNESDAY)...SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT AS A COLD FRONT LOCATED UPSTREAM OF THE FORECAST
AREA DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID SOUTH TODAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE NORTH OF
I-40 THIS MORNING AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-40 THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
REMAINS LOW AS OVERALL FORCING/INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
MINIMAL AT BEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DEPART
THE MID SOUTH BY WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS THE AREA AND HAVE CONTINUED A
RAIN FREE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY. COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ON SATURDAY
REMAINING MAINLY IN THE 50S AND PERHAPS A POTENTIAL FOR FROST
SUNDAY MORNING AS TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 30S...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS TYPICALLY FAVORED AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LONG TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING RAIN CHANCES
WILL RETURN BY MONDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

SURFACE COLD FRONT APPEARS ON TRACK TO REACH AN MEM/MKL LINE BY
18Z. SCATTERED SHRA WILL PREVAIL NEAR AND BEHIND THE FRONT...
ALONG WITH ISOLATED TS NEAR OR SHORTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD BE MAINLY POST FRONTAL...WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT AS DRIER
AIR WORKS IN THIS EVENING AT JBR AND LATER...MEM AND MKL.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









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