000
FXUS64 KMEG 220107
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
807 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS WEST
TENNESSEE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND THUS FAR THE STORMS HAVE NOT
APPROACHED SEVERE LIMITS. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH...THE LINE IS
JUST GETTING INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE SINCE NO RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IN ADDITION...THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO TO STREAM
NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. DON/T KNOW WHAT THE STORMS
WILL DO WHEN THEY MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AS THE
ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER FROM FIRST LINE. HOWEVER...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
LINE SO WILL HANG ON TO THE WATCH FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER THE
FIRST LINE MOVES THROUGH UNTIL WE SEE WHAT THE STORMS DO ALONG THE
SECOND LINE. HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE WATCH BEHIND THE
FIRST LINE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
VERY ACTIVE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION MAY HAVE US FROM A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK TODAY...ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FARTHER NORTH THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER. INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
RESULTING IN CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND LI`S BELOW -6C. JUST
ACROSS THE STATE LINE IN MOST OF TN...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...CAPES ARE GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG WITH LI`S
-4C OR GREATER. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
HAVE SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF ROTATION. 0-3KM HELICITY IS GENERALLY
50-90M^2/S^2 WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT CURRENTLY AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH BETTER SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS CAN BE SEEN OVER NORTH TEXAS INTO
OKLAHOMA. THIS LINE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ONLY HELP SUPPORT FOCUS UPDRAFTS AND MAINTAIN A
SEVERE THREAT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE. A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTH TEXAS AND SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS
DURING THE NIGHT. WE WILL SEE A 40-45KT LLJ DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT
AND MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
70-80KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL MOVE
IN JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUS FEEL LIKE
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME DURING
THE NIGHT...MARGINAL BUT CERTAINLY NOT ZERO.
RESEARCHERS AT MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY LAUNCHED A WEATHER
BALLOON MIDDAY ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI.
IT SHOWS A BIT OF A CAP AT 10KFT...BUT CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3500
J/KG. FARTHER NORTH AT LITTLE ROCK A MIDDAY SOUNDING WAS
INDICATIVE OF A WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING ONLY 343
JOULES OF CAPE. ANY THREATS FROM STORMS IN WEST TENNESSEE AND EAST
ARKANSAS WOULD BE PRIMARILY HAIL.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EAST ARKANSAS
BY 10 AM...CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MIDDAY AND EXIT INTO
CENTRAL TENNESSEE/NORTH ALABAMA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT TEMPERATURES AGAIN TOMORROW BUT AS RAIN
ENDS...WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE LOW 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL LIKELY BE
TRICKY TOMORROW DUE THE RAINFALL AND FRONT.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH COOLISH FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
OUR WEATHER SHOULD BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH..LEAVING
MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 2000FT
AT ALL SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THRU MIDMORNING
TOMORROW.
SAK
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 69 83 61 82 / 100 60 10 10
MKL 67 81 58 81 / 100 60 10 10
JBR 65 82 57 80 / 100 40 10 10
TUP 67 83 60 86 / 100 70 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 220102
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
802 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
WEST TENNESSEE HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND THUS FAR THE STORMS HAVE
NOT APPROACHED SEVERE LIMITS. MEANWHILE FURTHER SOUTH...THE LINE
IS JUST GETTING INTO NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE IS
MUCH MORE UNSTABLE SINCE NO RAIN HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IN ADDITION...THE SECOND LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER SHORTWAVE IS BEGINNING TO TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. DON/T KNOW WHAT THE STORMS WILL DO WHEN THEY
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN WORKED
OVER FROM FIRST LINE. HOWEVER...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS
CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE LINE SO WILL HANG ON
TO THE WATCH FOR NORTH MISSISSIPPI AFTER THE FIRST LINE MOVES
THROUGH UNTIL WE SEE WHAT THE STORMS DO ALONG THE SECOND LINE.
HOWEVER...WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE WATCH BEHIND THE FIRST LINE
ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
VERY ACTIVE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION MAY HAVE US FROM A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAK TODAY...ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FARTHER NORTH THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER. INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
RESULTING IN CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND LI`S BELOW -6C. JUST
ACROSS THE STATE LINE IN MOST OF TN...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...CAPES ARE GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG WITH LI`S
-4C OR GREATER. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
HAVE SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF ROTATION. 0-3KM HELICITY IS GENERALLY
50-90M^2/S^2 WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT CURRENTLY AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH BETTER SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS CAN BE SEEN OVER NORTH TEXAS INTO
OKLAHOMA. THIS LINE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ONLY HELP SUPPORT FOCUS UPDRAFTS AND MAINTAIN A
SEVERE THREAT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE. A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTH TEXAS AND SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS
DURING THE NIGHT. WE WILL SEE A 40-45KT LLJ DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT
AND MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
70-80KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL MOVE
IN JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUS FEEL LIKE
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME DURING
THE NIGHT...MARGINAL BUT CERTAINLY NOT ZERO.
RESEARCHERS AT MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY LAUNCHED A WEATHER
BALLOON MIDDAY ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI.
IT SHOWS A BIT OF A CAP AT 10KFT...BUT CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3500
J/KG. FARTHER NORTH AT LITTLE ROCK A MIDDAY SOUNDING WAS
INDICATIVE OF A WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING ONLY 343
JOULES OF CAPE. ANY THREATS FROM STORMS IN WEST TENNESSEE AND EAST
ARKANSAS WOULD BE PRIMARILY HAIL.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EAST ARKANSAS
BY 10 AM...CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MIDDAY AND EXIT INTO
CENTRAL TENNESSEE/NORTH ALABAMA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT TEMPERATURES AGAIN TOMORROW BUT AS RAIN
ENDS...WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE LOW 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL LIKELY BE
TRICKY TOMORROW DUE THE RAINFALL AND FRONT.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH COOLISH FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
OUR WEATHER SHOULD BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH..LEAVING
MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 2000FT
AT ALL SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THRU MIDMORNING
TOMORROW.
SAK
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 69 83 61 82 / 70 60 10 10
MKL 67 81 58 81 / 70 60 10 10
JBR 65 82 57 80 / 70 40 10 10
TUP 67 83 60 86 / 70 70 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 220004
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
704 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
.UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF DISCUSSION..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 304 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION MAY HAVE US FROM A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY...ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FARTHER NORTH THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER. INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
RESULTING IN CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND LI`S BELOW -6C. JUST
ACROSS THE STATE LINE IN MOST OF TN...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...CAPES ARE GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG WITH LI`S
-4C OR GREATER. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
HAVE SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF ROTATION. 0-3KM HELICITY IS GENERALLY
50-90M^2/S^2 WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT CURRENTLY AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH BETTER SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS CAN BE SEEN OVER NORTH TEXAS INTO
OKLAHOMA. THIS LINE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ONLY HELP SUPPORT FOCUS UPDRAFTS AND MAINTAIN A
SEVERE THREAT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE. A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTH TEXAS AND SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS
DURING THE NIGHT. WE WILL SEE A 40-45KT LLJ DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT
AND MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
70-80KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL MOVE
IN JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUS FEEL LIKE
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME DURING
THE NIGHT...MARGINAL BUT CERTAINLY NOT ZERO.
RESEARCHERS AT MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY LAUNCHED A WEATHER
BALLOON MIDDAY ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI.
IT SHOWS A BIT OF A CAP AT 10KFT...BUT CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3500
J/KG. FARTHER NORTH AT LITTLE ROCK A MIDDAY SOUNDING WAS
INDICATIVE OF A WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING ONLY 343
JOULES OF CAPE. ANY THREATS FROM STORMS IN WEST TENNESSEE AND EAST
ARKANSAS WOULD BE PRIMARILY HAIL.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EAST ARKANSAS
BY 10 AM...CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MIDDAY AND EXIT INTO
CENTRAL TENNESSEE/NORTH ALABAMA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT TEMPERATURES AGAIN TOMORROW BUT AS RAIN
ENDS...WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE LOW 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL LIKELY BE
TRICKY TOMORROW DUE THE RAINFALL AND FRONT.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH COOLISH FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
OUR WEATHER SHOULD BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ONGOING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH..LEAVING
MAINLY STRATIFORM RAIN WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 2000FT
AT ALL SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY IMPROVE THRU MIDMORNING
TOMORROW.
SAK
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 69 83 61 82 / 70 60 10 10
MKL 67 81 58 81 / 70 60 10 10
JBR 65 82 57 80 / 70 40 10 10
TUP 67 83 60 86 / 70 70 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 212004
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
304 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
VERY ACTIVE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION MAY HAVE US FROM A MUCH MORE SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER OUTBREAK TODAY...ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL
EXISTS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI. FARTHER NORTH THE
AIRMASS HAS BEEN WORKED OVER...AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT
TEMPERATURES QUITE A BIT COOLER. INSTABILITY IS HIGHEST IN NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE
MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
RESULTING IN CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500 J/KG AND LI`S BELOW -6C. JUST
ACROSS THE STATE LINE IN MOST OF TN...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...CAPES ARE GENERALLY BELOW 1500 J/KG WITH LI`S
-4C OR GREATER. DEW POINTS ARE ALSO SLIGHTLY HIGHER. IN THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
HAVE SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF ROTATION. 0-3KM HELICITY IS GENERALLY
50-90M^2/S^2 WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS. UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT IS NOT CURRENTLY AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH BETTER SUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS CAN BE SEEN OVER NORTH TEXAS INTO
OKLAHOMA. THIS LINE WILL BRING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL ONLY HELP SUPPORT FOCUS UPDRAFTS AND MAINTAIN A
SEVERE THREAT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST THIS EVENING AND APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE. A SURFACE LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER
NORTH TEXAS AND SHOULD TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL ARKANSAS
DURING THE NIGHT. WE WILL SEE A 40-45KT LLJ DEVELOP BY MIDNIGHT
AND MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A
70-80KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS ADDITIONAL DYNAMIC SUPPORT WILL MOVE
IN JUST AS WE LOSE DAYTIME THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUS FEEL LIKE
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME DURING
THE NIGHT...MARGINAL BUT CERTAINLY NOT ZERO.
RESEARCHERS AT MISSISSIPPI STATE UNIVERSITY LAUNCHED A WEATHER
BALLOON MIDDAY ABOUT 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GREENWOOD MISSISSIPPI.
IT SHOWS A BIT OF A CAP AT 10KFT...BUT CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3500
J/KG. FARTHER NORTH AT LITTLE ROCK A MIDDAY SOUNDING WAS
INDICATIVE OF A WORKED OVER ENVIRONMENT...FEATURING ONLY 343
JOULES OF CAPE. ANY THREATS FROM STORMS IN WEST TENNESSEE AND EAST
ARKANSAS WOULD BE PRIMARILY HAIL.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TOMORROW BRINGING AN
END TO THE PRECIPITATION. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO EAST ARKANSAS
BY 10 AM...CROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MIDDAY AND EXIT INTO
CENTRAL TENNESSEE/NORTH ALABAMA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAIN WILL LIKELY LIMIT TEMPERATURES AGAIN TOMORROW BUT AS RAIN
ENDS...WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES SURGE INTO THE LOW 80S DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL LIKELY BE
TRICKY TOMORROW DUE THE RAINFALL AND FRONT.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOK MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH COOLISH FRIDAY...THEN TRENDING
GRADUALLY WARMER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
OUR WEATHER SHOULD BE PRIMARILY INFLUENCED BY A WEAK RIDGE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONGOING
CONVECTION..MAINLY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME..WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BRIEFLY AFFECT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS GENERATED BY NEARBY
TS. OVERNIGHT..EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH BETWEEN 10-12UTC
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING.
SAK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 69 83 61 82 / 80 60 10 10
MKL 67 81 58 81 / 70 60 10 10
JBR 65 82 57 80 / 90 40 10 10
TUP 67 83 60 86 / 70 70 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 211807
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
107 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
.UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF DISCUSSION..
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL REALIZE THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE RAIN IS LESS
WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER IS STILL WIDESPREAD. NEW ZONES ARE
OUT. WILL LIKELY FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI...THEN BACK INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
BACK INTO TEXAS. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEAKENED AS IT
MOVED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT
ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST
ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HAS MOVED TO
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. REGIONAL
WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL LINES ACROSS
ARKANSAS...THE FIRST LINE ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND
A SECOND LINE BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE LESS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
THESE TWO ADDITIONAL LINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE REMAIN ELEVATED AT
THIS TIME.
A SURFACE LOW NEAR MIDLAND TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON...INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND UP INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODERATELY STEEP TO STEEP 700-500
MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN
40 TO 50 KTS...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALOFT...AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF A LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. A POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO EXIST FOR PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY AND TONIGHT IF SHORT TERM TRENDS SHOW AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL. WILL HIGHLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY)...LATEST LONG TERM
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE REMAINS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
MID SOUTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
TEMPORARILY RETURNING BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. LONG TERM MODELS
REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS THE
COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS THE DRIER OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MEMORIAL
DAY. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS.
CJC
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONGOING
CONVECTION..MAINLY OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI AT THIS TIME..WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BRIEFLY AFFECT TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH AT AROUND 10KTS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRIEF GUSTY WINDS GENERATED BY NEARBY
TS. OVERNIGHT..EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS TO 20KT POSSIBLE.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE MIDSOUTH BETWEEN 10-12UTC
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING.
SAK
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 70 84 65 82 / 80 50 10 20
MKL 68 82 63 81 / 70 50 10 20
JBR 66 82 62 82 / 90 30 10 20
TUP 68 83 65 86 / 60 60 10 20
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 211559
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1059 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE WE WILL REALIZE THE EXPECTED AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION. THE
EXCEPTION MAY BE IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE RAIN IS LESS
WIDESPREAD. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER IS STILL WIDESPREAD. NEW ZONES ARE
OUT. WILL LIKELY FOCUS ON SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THIS AFTERNOON. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE LONG TERM WITH THE
AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI...THEN BACK INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
BACK INTO TEXAS. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEAKENED AS IT
MOVED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT
ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST
ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HAS MOVED TO
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. REGIONAL
WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL LINES ACROSS
ARKANSAS...THE FIRST LINE ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND
A SECOND LINE BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE LESS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
THESE TWO ADDITIONAL LINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE REMAIN ELEVATED AT
THIS TIME.
A SURFACE LOW NEAR MIDLAND TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON...INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND UP INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODERATELY STEEP TO STEEP 700-500
MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN
40 TO 50 KTS...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALOFT...AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF A LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. A POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO EXIST FOR PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY AND TONIGHT IF SHORT TERM TRENDS SHOW AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL. WILL HIGHLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY)...LATEST LONG TERM
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE REMAINS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
MID SOUTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
TEMPORARILY RETURNING BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. LONG TERM MODELS
REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS THE
COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS THE DRIER OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MEMORIAL
DAY. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS.
CJC
AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A COUPLE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT SITES MEM AND MKL.
MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF A LINE...WITH
HEAVY RAIN TEMPORARILY AFFECTING VISBYS. SOME LLWS COULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ INCREASES.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...DUE TO TEMPORARY WINDSHIFTS
ASSOICATED WITH THESE LINES OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 12-14 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
16-24 KTS BY MID AFTN.
AC3
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 77 70 84 65 / 60 80 50 10
MKL 76 68 82 63 / 60 70 50 10
JBR 74 66 82 62 / 80 90 30 10
TUP 86 68 83 65 / 30 60 60 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 211235
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
735 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI...THEN BACK INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
BACK INTO TEXAS. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEAKENED AS IT
MOVED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT
ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST
ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HAS MOVED TO
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. REGIONAL
WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL LINES ACROSS
ARKANSAS...THE FIRST LINE ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND
A SECOND LINE BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE LESS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
THESE TWO ADDITIONAL LINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE REMAIN ELEVATED AT
THIS TIME.
A SURFACE LOW NEAR MIDLAND TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON...INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND UP INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODERATELY STEEP TO STEEP 700-500
MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN
40 TO 50 KTS...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALOFT...AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF A LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. A POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO EXIST FOR PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY AND TONIGHT IF SHORT TERM TRENDS SHOW AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL. WILL HIGHLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY)...LATEST LONG TERM
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE REMAINS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
MID SOUTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
TEMPORARILY RETURNING BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. LONG TERM MODELS
REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS THE
COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS THE DRIER OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MEMORIAL
DAY. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A COUPLE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT SITES MEM AND MKL.
MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF A LINE...WITH
HEAVY RAIN TEMPORARILY AFFECTING VISBYS. SOME LLWS COULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ INCREASES.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...DUE TO TEMPORARY WINDSHIFTS
ASSOICATED WITH THESE LINES OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 12-14 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
16-24 KTS BY MID AFTN.
AC3
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 86 70 84 65 / 60 80 50 10
MKL 85 68 82 63 / 60 70 50 10
JBR 83 66 82 62 / 70 90 30 10
TUP 88 68 83 65 / 30 60 60 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 211229
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
729 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 551 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI...THEN BACK INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
BACK INTO TEXAS. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEAKENED AS IT
MOVED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT
ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST
ISSUANCE.
SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HAS MOVED TO
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. REGIONAL
WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL LINES ACROSS
ARKANSAS...THE FIRST LINE ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND
A SECOND LINE BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE LESS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
THESE TWO ADDITIONAL LINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE REMAIN ELEVATED AT
THIS TIME.
A SURFACE LOW NEAR MIDLAND TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON...INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND UP INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODERATELY STEEP TO STEEP 700-500
MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN
40 TO 50 KTS...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALOFT...AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF A LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. A POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO EXIST FOR PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY AND TONIGHT IF SHORT TERM TRENDS SHOW AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL. WILL HIGHLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY)...LATEST LONG TERM
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE REMAINS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
MID SOUTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
TEMPORARILY RETURNING BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. LONG TERM MODELS
REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS THE
COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS THE DRIER OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MEMORIAL
DAY. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A COUPLE LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ALL TAF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME TEMPO MVFR CIGS AT SITES MEM AND MKL.
MORE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...SOME OF WHICH MAY
BECOME SEVERE AND WILL MOST LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF A LINE...WITH
HEAVY RAIN TEMPORARILY AFFECTING VISBYS. SOME LLWS COULD ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AS THE LLJ INCREASES.
VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...DUE TO TEMPORARY WINDSHIFTS
ASSOICATED WITH THESE LINES OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND 12-14 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS
16-24 KTS BY MID AFTN.
AC3
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 86 70 84 65 / 50 80 50 10
MKL 85 68 82 63 / 30 70 50 10
JBR 83 66 82 62 / 70 90 30 10
TUP 88 68 83 65 / 20 60 60 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 211051
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
551 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THE
LOW ACROSS WESTERN MISSOURI...THEN BACK INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND
BACK INTO TEXAS. MEANWHILE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH LAST NIGHT/S CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER THE PLAINS AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY PRODUCED DAMAGING WINDS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WEAKENED AS IT
MOVED EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TEMPERATURES AS OF 4 AM CDT
ARE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAINLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
REMAINS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IN THIS MORNING/S FORECAST
ISSUANCE.
.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION HAS MOVED TO
PORTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. REGIONAL
WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS SHOW A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL LINES ACROSS
ARKANSAS...THE FIRST LINE ACROSS EAST AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...AND
A SECOND LINE BEGINNING TO APPROACH CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LATEST RADAR
TRENDS INDICATE LESS SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND
THESE TWO ADDITIONAL LINES ARE EXPECTED TO BE REMAIN ELEVATED AT
THIS TIME.
A SURFACE LOW NEAR MIDLAND TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON...INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
TONIGHT AND UP INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS TONIGHT.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE ONCE AGAIN
BY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODERATELY STEEP TO STEEP 700-500
MB LAYER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES BETWEEN
40 TO 50 KTS...SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS ALOFT...AND FAVORABLE UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE PRODUCED BY THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER
LEVEL JET STREAK SUGGEST THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE FORM OF A LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TONIGHT. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT REACH SEVERE LIMITS. A POTENTIAL
WILL ALSO EXIST FOR PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LINE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING FROM
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND
CONSIDER THE POTENTIAL FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAINLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER TODAY AND TONIGHT IF SHORT TERM TRENDS SHOW AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL. WILL HIGHLIGHT SEVERE WEATHER THREATS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE MID SOUTH AND GRADUALLY TAPER
OFF INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY)...LATEST LONG TERM
MODEL TRENDS INDICATE ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY. A POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE REMAINS LOW. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
MID SOUTH FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
TEMPORARILY RETURNING BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA. LONG TERM MODELS
REMAIN IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AS THE
COLD FRONT RETURNS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REMAINS THE DRIER OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH THE
ECMWF SUGGESTING SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-40 FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO MEMORIAL
DAY. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL MODELS
COME INTO BETTER CONSENSUS.
CJC
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A WEAKENING LINE OF SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH
KJBR AFT 21/08Z AND GLANCE KMEM AFT 21/10Z. KMKL AND KTUP WILL
REMAIN VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT SOME LEFTOVER
SHRAS AND PATCHY MVFR CIGS TUESDAY MORNING. ANY LOWER CONDS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS AND
TSRA TO DEVELOP AND START TO IMPACT WESTERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH
LATE TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ADDED TEMPOS FOR TSRAS AT
KJBR...KMEM AND KMKL FOR TUESDAY EVENING.
SOUTH WINDS AT 6-10 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 12-14 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BY TUESDAY AFTN.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 86 70 84 65 / 50 80 50 10
MKL 85 68 82 63 / 30 70 50 10
JBR 83 66 82 62 / 70 90 30 10
TUP 88 68 83 65 / 20 60 60 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 210435
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
UPDATE...
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD PUSH INTO RANDOLPH AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES BETWEEN 10-11 PM CDT. LINE SHOULD WEAKEN SOME BY
THE TIME IT REACHES NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY OCCUR. WILL UPDATE TO BUMP UP POPS. UPDATE
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH JUST
SOME ISSUES RESOLVING THE CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING OFF TO THE
WEST AND HOW IT WILL MOVE THIS WAY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TOMORROW.
NOT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO
MUCH...REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE. RIDGING LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL
MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST MAY
ORGANIZE THIS EVENING AND MAKE A RUN AT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING DRAMATICALLY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE. LITTLE IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND WILL LIMIT HEATING SOME
AND LIKELY DAMPEN THE ENVIRONMENTS ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SEVERE STORMS. SOME SCTD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER WED 00Z. SEVERE STORM CHANCES SEEM
SMALL DUE TO SOME LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS THE TIME OF DAY THE
BULK OF THE STORMS WILL REACH THE REGION...MODEST
INSTABILITY...AND NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SOUNDINGS. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE VERY LIKELY. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY
FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION. -ABS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EACH DAY SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WARMING SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
PUSH OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF AS RIDGING EXPANDS
ACROSS THE REGION. POSSIBLE RETURN OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. -ABS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A WEAKENING LINE OF SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE
MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT. EXPECT THE LINE TO HOLD TOGETHER AND REACH
KJBR AFT 21/08Z AND GLANCE KMEM AFT 21/10Z. KMKL AND KTUP WILL
REMAIN VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. EXPECT SOME LEFTOVER
SHRAS AND PATCHY MVFR CIGS TUESDAY MORNING. ANY LOWER CONDS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS AND
TSRA TO DEVELOP AND START TO IMPACT WESTERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH
LATE TUESDAY AFTN INTO TUESDAY EVENING. ADDED TEMPOS FOR TSRAS AT
KJBR...KMEM AND KMKL FOR TUESDAY EVENING.
SOUTH WINDS AT 6-10 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 12-14 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BY TUESDAY AFTN.
SJM
&&
.AVIATION...
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 74 88 70 83 / 10 30 80 50
MKL 71 85 69 82 / 10 30 70 50
JBR 70 84 66 82 / 60 60 80 30
TUP 70 88 69 82 / 10 20 50 60
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 210136
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
836 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD PUSH INTO RANDOLPH AND
LAWRENCE COUNTIES BETWEEN 10-11 PM CDT. LINE SHOULD WEAKEN SOME BY
THE TIME IT REACHES NORTHEAST ARKANSAS DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL MAY BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY OCCUR. WILL UPDATE TO BUMP UP POPS. UPDATE
WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH JUST
SOME ISSUES RESOLVING THE CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING OFF TO THE
WEST AND HOW IT WILL MOVE THIS WAY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TOMORROW.
NOT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO
MUCH...REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE. RIDGING LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL
MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST MAY
ORGANIZE THIS EVENING AND MAKE A RUN AT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING DRAMATICALLY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE. LITTLE IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND WILL LIMIT HEATING SOME
AND LIKELY DAMPEN THE ENVIRONMENTS ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SEVERE STORMS. SOME SCTD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER WED 00Z. SEVERE STORM CHANCES SEEM
SMALL DUE TO SOME LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS THE TIME OF DAY THE
BULK OF THE STORMS WILL REACH THE REGION...MODEST
INSTABILITY...AND NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SOUNDINGS. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE VERY LIKELY. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY
FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION. -ABS
.THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EACH DAY SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WARMING SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
PUSH OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF AS RIDGING EXPANDS
ACROSS THE REGION. POSSIBLE RETURN OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. -ABS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT
LEAST PATCHY STRATUS WILL RETURN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT WITH CONDS BECOMING VFR AGAIN BY 21/16Z. SHRAS AND
TSRAS MAY APPROACH KJBR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY SO CONTIUED
VCTS THERE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS AND TSRA TO DEVELOP AND
START TO IMPACT WESTERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AFTN. FOR
NOW WENT WITH VCTS AT KJBR AND KMEM AFT 21/20Z.
SOUTH WINDS OF 8-12 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 12-14 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TUESDAY AFTN.
SJM
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 74 88 70 83 / 10 30 80 50
MKL 71 85 69 82 / 10 30 70 50
JBR 70 84 66 82 / 40 60 80 30
TUP 70 88 69 82 / 10 20 50 60
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 202326
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
626 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH JUST
SOME ISSUES RESOLVING THE CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING OFF TO THE
WEST AND HOW IT WILL MOVE THIS WAY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TOMORROW.
NOT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO
MUCH...REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE. RIDGING LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL
MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST MAY
ORGANIZE THIS EVENING AND MAKE A RUN AT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING DRAMATICALLY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE. LITTLE IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND WILL LIMIT HEATING SOME
AND LIKELY DAMPEN THE ENVIRONMENTS ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SEVERE STORMS. SOME SCTD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER WED 00Z. SEVERE STORM CHANCES SEEM
SMALL DUE TO SOME LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS THE TIME OF DAY THE
BULK OF THE STORMS WILL REACH THE REGION...MODEST
INSTABILITY...AND NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SOUNDINGS. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE VERY LIKELY. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY
FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION. -ABS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EACH DAY SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WARMING SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
PUSH OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF AS RIDGING EXPANDS
ACROSS THE REGION. POSSIBLE RETURN OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. -ABS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT
LEAST PATCHY STRATUS WILL RETURN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WHICH WILL
GRADUALLY LIFT WITH CONDS BECOMING VFR AGAIN BY 21/16Z. SHRAS AND
TSRAS MAY APPROACH KJBR LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY SO CONTIUED
VCTS THERE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRAS AND TSRA TO DEVELOP AND
START TO IMPACT WESTERN AREAS OF THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AFTN. FOR
NOW WENT WITH VCTS AT KJBR AND KMEM AFT 21/20Z.
SOUTH WINDS OF 8-12 KTS TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 12-14 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS TUESDAY AFTN.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 74 88 70 83 / 10 30 80 50
MKL 71 85 69 82 / 10 30 70 50
JBR 70 84 66 82 / 40 60 80 30
TUP 70 88 69 82 / 10 20 50 60
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 202024
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
324 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FAIRLY DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH JUST
SOME ISSUES RESOLVING THE CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING OFF TO THE
WEST AND HOW IT WILL MOVE THIS WAY TONIGHT...AND AGAIN TOMORROW.
NOT ENOUGH DIFFERENCES TO LOWER FORECAST CONFIDENCE TOO
MUCH...REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE. RIDGING LOOKS TO CONTINUE TO HOLD ON
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING TO PULL
MOIST GULF AIR INTO THE MIDSOUTH. CONVECTION OFF TO THE WEST MAY
ORGANIZE THIS EVENING AND MAKE A RUN AT THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT...PUSHING INTO THE NW HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THOUGH
WEAKENING DRAMATICALLY AS IT PUSHES INTO THE RIDGE. LITTLE IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. CLOUDS LEFT BEHIND WILL LIMIT HEATING SOME
AND LIKELY DAMPEN THE ENVIRONMENTS ABILITY TO DESTABILIZE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR SEVERE STORMS. SOME SCTD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM THE
WEST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER WED 00Z. SEVERE STORM CHANCES SEEM
SMALL DUE TO SOME LIMITING FACTORS SUCH AS THE TIME OF DAY THE
BULK OF THE STORMS WILL REACH THE REGION...MODEST
INSTABILITY...AND NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST SOUNDINGS. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE VERY LIKELY. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXITING THE AREA BY LATE IN THE DAY
FOR MUCH...IF NOT ALL OF THE REGION. -ABS
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT AS
SURFACE HIGH NUDGES INTO THE MIDSOUTH. EACH DAY SHOULD BE DRY
THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL OR NORMAL TEMPS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WARMING SUNDAY WITH A SOUTHERLY
PUSH OF WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF AS RIDGING EXPANDS
ACROSS THE REGION. POSSIBLE RETURN OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. -ABS
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...GENERALLY
3000-4000 FT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS BECOME SCT AFTER
SUNSET...BUT ADDITIONAL LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN TOWARD
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOMORROW...BUT NOT LIKELY MAKE IT TO MEM...MKL...OR TUP BEFORE
18Z. WILL CARRY VCTS AT JBR AFTER 11Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY...GENERALLY AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS...STRONGEST AT JBR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 74 88 70 83 / 10 30 80 50
MKL 71 85 69 82 / 10 30 70 50
JBR 70 84 66 82 / 40 60 80 30
TUP 70 88 69 82 / 10 20 50 60
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 201720
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY A MINOR TWEAK TO REMOVE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AR DUE TO CAPPING. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO BUILD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTS
CLOSE TO THE 20KT RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER. HIGHS SHOULD
STILL PUSH UPPER 80S OR CLOSE TO 90 ACROSS ENTIRE AREA. --ABS
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A DOWNSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER MISSOURI CURRENTLY IN A
WEAKENING PHASE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LEAVE A CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY. HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO PERSIST AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BECOME A FOCUS FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE OZARKS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM MODE SHOULD BEGIN
AS SUPERCELLS BUT GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) AS IT ADVANCES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY ADVANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG...LI/S
AROUND -6C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM. IN
ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED
SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THE PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT BUT SHOULD NOT BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS VEER LATE TONIGHT. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THEY APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY FIZZLE
LATER TUESDAY MORNING OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD TEMPORARILY REBUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING A LULL IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND INHIBITS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES. A THIRD AND
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID SOUTH BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE CAPPING INVERSION
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ALLOWING FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG...LI/S -6C TO -10C...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL
JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA ALONG WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM MODE SHOULD BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO AN EXPANSIVE QUASI-
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS). THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST
EARLY IN THE EVENT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP. ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS.
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
AS THE EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESTRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTROL THE MID SOUTH WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
JLH
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY...GENERALLY
3000-4000 FT. WE WILL LIKELY SEE CIGS BECOME SCT AFTER
SUNSET...BUT ADDITIONAL LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL RETURN TOWARD
MORNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TOMORROW...BUT NOT LIKELY MAKE IT TO MEM...MKL...OR TUP BEFORE
18Z. WILL CARRY VCTS AT JBR AFTER 11Z. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES TOMORROW. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY...GENERALLY AROUND
10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 20 KTS...STRONGEST AT JBR.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 89 74 88 69 / 10 10 30 70
MKL 88 72 88 69 / 10 10 30 70
JBR 89 69 86 66 / 20 40 60 90
TUP 89 71 89 70 / 0 10 20 40
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 201502
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1002 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE...WITH ONLY A MINOR TWEAK TO REMOVE THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS
THINKING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NE AR DUE TO CAPPING. WINDS ARE
STARTING TO BUILD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION WITH GUSTS
CLOSE TO THE 20KT RANGE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER. HIGHS SHOULD
STILL PUSH UPPER 80S OR CLOSE TO 90 ACROSS ENTIRE AREA. --ABS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A DOWNSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER MISSOURI CURRENTLY IN A
WEAKENING PHASE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LEAVE A CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY. HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO PERSIST AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BECOME A FOCUS FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE OZARKS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM MODE SHOULD BEGIN
AS SUPERCELLS BUT GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) AS IT ADVANCES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY ADVANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG...LI/S
AROUND -6C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM. IN
ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED
SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THE PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT BUT SHOULD NOT BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS VEER LATE TONIGHT. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THEY APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY FIZZLE
LATER TUESDAY MORNING OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD TEMPORARILY REBUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING A LULL IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND INHIBITS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES. A THIRD AND
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID SOUTH BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE CAPPING INVERSION
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ALLOWING FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG...LI/S -6C TO -10C...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL
JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA ALONG WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM MODE SHOULD BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO AN EXPANSIVE QUASI-
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS). THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST
EARLY IN THE EVENT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP. ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS.
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
AS THE EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESTRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTROL THE MID SOUTH WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
JLH
AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW STRATUS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD INTO ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 20/12-16Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS CLOUDS MIX OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING
MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-16 KTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 18-26 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT JBR AND MEM. VCTS POSSIBLE AT
JBR MAINLY AFTER 21/08Z AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 89 74 88 69 / 10 10 30 70
MKL 88 72 88 69 / 10 10 30 70
JBR 89 69 86 66 / 20 40 60 90
TUP 89 71 89 70 / 0 10 20 40
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 201120
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A DOWNSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER MISSOURI CURRENTLY IN A
WEAKENING PHASE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LEAVE A CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY. HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO PERSIST AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BECOME A FOCUS FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE OZARKS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM MODE SHOULD BEGIN
AS SUPERCELLS BUT GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) AS IT ADVANCES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY ADVANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG...LI/S
AROUND -6C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM. IN
ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED
SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THE PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT BUT SHOULD NOT BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS VEER LATE TONIGHT. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THEY APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY FIZZLE
LATER TUESDAY MORNING OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD TEMPORARILY REBUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING A LULL IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND INHIBITS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES. A THIRD AND
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID SOUTH BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE CAPPING INVERSION
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ALLOWING FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG...LI/S -6C TO -10C...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL
JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA ALONG WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM MODE SHOULD BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO AN EXPANSIVE QUASI-
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS). THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST
EARLY IN THE EVENT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP. ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS.
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
AS THE EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AS
DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESTRENGTHENS ACROSS THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH
SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTROL THE MID SOUTH WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW STRATUS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL SPREAD INTO ALL TAF SITES
BETWEEN 20/12-16Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD AS CLOUDS MIX OUT BY LATE THIS MORNING
MORNING. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-16 KTS SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 18-26 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT JBR AND MEM. VCTS POSSIBLE AT
JBR MAINLY AFTER 21/08Z AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS.
CJC
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 89 74 88 69 / 10 10 30 70
MKL 88 72 88 69 / 10 10 30 70
JBR 89 69 86 66 / 10 40 60 90
TUP 89 71 89 70 / 0 10 20 40
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 200953
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
453 AM CDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A DOWNSTREAM
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE DEEP SOUTH
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THROUGH MISSOURI EARLY THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO LIFT
NORTHEAST WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER MISSOURI CURRENTLY IN A
WEAKENING PHASE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY LEAVE A CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI
WESTWARD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
KEEP DRY AND VERY WARM WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY. HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO PERSIST AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT AROUND 90 DEGREES IN MOST
AREAS. SOME LOW LEVEL STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING FROM THE SOUTH...BUT SHOULD MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING.
THE AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY BECOME A FOCUS FOR RENEWED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS ANOTHER MID
LEVEL SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ACROSS THE OZARKS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHWESTWARD INTO CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY THIS EVENING. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM MODE SHOULD BEGIN
AS SUPERCELLS BUT GRADUALLY TRANSITION INTO A QUASI-LINEAR
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) AS IT ADVANCES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. THIS LINE OF STORMS MAY ADVANCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG...LI/S
AROUND -6C...AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7.5 C/KM. IN
ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR BETWEEN 40-50 KTS WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THIS
COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED
SEVERE THREAT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS
AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL. THE PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT BUT SHOULD NOT BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD AS LOW
LEVEL WINDS VEER LATE TONIGHT. STORMS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN
TOWARDS SUNRISE AS THEY APPROACH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AS THE UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD EVENTUALLY FIZZLE
LATER TUESDAY MORNING OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH.
THE UPPER RIDGE SHOULD TEMPORARILY REBUILD OVER THE MID SOUTH
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY BRINGING A LULL IN ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AS THE CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS AND INHIBITS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. SKIES SHOULD SCATTER OUT WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
WELL INTO THE 80S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CONTINUED HUMID
CONDITIONS AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70 DEGREES. A THIRD AND
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID SOUTH BY TUESDAY EVENING. THIS SHORTWAVE SHOULD TAKE ON A
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THIS OCCURS...THE CAPPING INVERSION
WILL BEGIN TO ERODE ALLOWING FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD QUICKLY SPREAD NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD REMAIN
MODERATELY UNSTABLE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500-2500 J/KG...LI/S -6C TO -10C...AND MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE AS A 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL
JET OVERSPREADS THE AREA ALONG WITH AROUND 50 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW. INITIAL THUNDERSTORM MODE SHOULD BE A MIX OF SUPERCELLS AND
BOWING LINE SEGMENTS EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO AN EXPANSIVE QUASI-
LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS). THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A TORNADO THREAT WILL EXIST
EARLY IN THE EVENT MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TUESDAY EVENING...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT
DEVELOP. ANY TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS.
THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WEAKENS. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY.
AS THE EARLY WEEK UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END OF THE WEEK...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG STORMS
MAY AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESTRENGTHENS. THE FRONT
SHOULD PUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTROL THE MID SOUTH WEATHER FOR FRIDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A RETURN TO DRY AND LESS HUMID WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP WITH CONDS
BECOMING VFR AFT 20/16Z. SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KTS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 10-16 KTS MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY
AT KJBR AND KMEM.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 89 74 88 69 / 10 10 30 70
MKL 88 72 88 69 / 10 10 30 70
JBR 89 69 86 66 / 10 40 60 90
TUP 89 71 89 70 / 0 10 20 40
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 200404
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1104 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
UPDATE...
QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE
PRESENT TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
HOWEVER...BLOW OFF FROM THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION AS
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIE OUT AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE
RIDGE. WILL UPDATE TO GO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. WILL ALSO BUMP UP LOWS ACROSS THE WEST. UPDATE WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. TONIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AND WARM AS COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY WHICH KEEP THINGS DRY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL INCH CLOSER TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY REACH
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS MUCH OF ARKANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWS THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE SOME. BY THURSDAY...THE COLD
FRONT STALLS OUT OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN NEXT SUNDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH RAIN. TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. STRATUS IS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
LOWER MS VALLEY AND WILL SPREAD NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP WITH CONDS
BECOMING VFR AFT 20/16Z. SOUTH WINDS AT 8-12 KTS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 10-16 KTS MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY
AT KJBR AND KMEM.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 74 89 72 86 / 10 10 30 40
MKL 69 89 70 85 / 10 10 20 30
JBR 72 87 70 83 / 10 20 40 50
TUP 69 90 69 88 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 200128
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
828 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
QUIET EVENING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR AT THE
PRESENT TIME AS AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
HOWEVER...BLOW OFF FROM THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY OCCURRING ACROSS
MISSOURI AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL SPREAD INTO AREAS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION AS
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIE OUT AS THEY MOVE EAST INTO THE
RIDGE. WILL UPDATE TO GO MOSTLY CLOUDY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER. WILL ALSO BUMP UP LOWS ACROSS THE WEST. UPDATE WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
KRM
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. TONIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AND WARM AS COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY WHICH KEEP THINGS DRY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL INCH CLOSER TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY REACH
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS MUCH OF ARKANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWS THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE SOME. BY THURSDAY...THE COLD
FRONT STALLS OUT OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN NEXT SUNDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH RAIN. TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP WITH CONDS
BECOMING VFR AFT 20/16Z. SOUTH WINDS AT 7-12 KTS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY
AT KJBR AND KMEM.
SJM
&&
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 72 89 72 86 / 10 10 30 40
MKL 69 89 70 85 / 10 10 20 30
JBR 70 87 70 83 / 10 20 40 50
TUP 69 90 69 88 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 192303
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
603 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. TONIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AND WARM AS COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY WHICH KEEP THINGS DRY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL INCH CLOSER TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY REACH
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS MUCH OF ARKANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWS THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE SOME. BY THURSDAY...THE COLD
FRONT STALLS OUT OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN NEXT SUNDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH RAIN. TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SPREAD NORTH INTO THE MIDSOUTH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP WITH CONDS
BECOMING VFR AFT 20/16Z. SOUTH WINDS AT 7-12 KTS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY MORNING WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY
AT KJBR AND KMEM.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 72 89 72 86 / 10 10 30 40
MKL 69 89 70 85 / 10 10 20 30
JBR 70 87 70 83 / 10 20 40 50
TUP 69 90 69 88 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 192000
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
300 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. TONIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AND WARM AS COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO THE WEST OF THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST DURING THE DAY
MONDAY WHICH KEEP THINGS DRY AND VERY WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
THE COLD FRONT WILL INCH CLOSER TO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY REACH
NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. BY TUESDAY THE COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN
ARKANSAS WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY WESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FRONT WILL ENTER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS TUESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS MUCH OF ARKANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER.
BY WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE 12Z ECMWF MODELS SHOWS THE
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT
SO THE CHANCE OF RAIN SHOULD DECREASE SOME. BY THURSDAY...THE COLD
FRONT STALLS OUT OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI LEAVING A SMALL CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THINGS MAINLY DRY TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON FRIDAY
AND AGAIN NEXT SUNDAY BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST AREAS WILL NOT SEE
MUCH RAIN. TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK FROM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE (19/18Z-20/18Z)
MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP UNTIL 19Z...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AFTER 20/12Z. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT KMEM...KJBR...AND
KMKL SOUTH 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-22 KTS...WINDS AT KTUP S 10 KTS.
WINDS TONIGHT SOUTH 6-12 KTS TONIGHT WITH THE THE STRONGEST WINDS
AT KMEM AND KJBR. AFTER 20/12Z S-SW WINDS 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS
TO 22 KTS AT KJBR.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 72 89 72 86 / 10 10 30 40
MKL 69 89 70 85 / 10 10 20 30
JBR 70 87 70 83 / 10 20 40 50
TUP 69 90 69 88 / 10 10 10 30
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 191725 AAC
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.
JCL
&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. A
FEW SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE EARLIER
THIS MORNING BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO
REMOVE MENTION OF POPS FOR TODAY.
ARS
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE MID SOUTH TODAY. RESIDUAL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. MORNING CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
ALONG WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
RISING WELL INTO THE 90S.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BUT SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH ALONG
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL LIFT
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH MAY BE GRAZED BY THE ACTIVITY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH. PLAN TO CARRY
CHANCE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
A THIRD AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE AS THE SHORTWAVE OVERSPREADS A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AREAS BY TUESDAY EVENING THAT SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DEGREE
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED APPEARS FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TOO EARLY TO
PROVIDE SPECIFIC DETAILS ON EVENTUAL THREATS AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
SEVERE EVENT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS.
THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEAVING BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ATTEMPS TO PHASE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. THE PHASING SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTHEAST
U.S. SHOULD HELP TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE (19/18Z-20/18Z)
MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR AT KTUP UNTIL 19Z...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MVFR CEILINGS SPREADING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST AFTER 20/12Z. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AT KMEM...KJBR...AND
KMKL SOUTH 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-22 KTS...WINDS AT KTUP S 10 KTS.
WINDS TONIGHT SOUTH 6-12 KTS TONIGHT WITH THE THE STRONGEST WINDS
AT KMEM AND KJBR. AFTER 20/12Z S-SW WINDS 10-15 KTS...WITH GUSTS
TO 22 KTS AT KJBR.
JCL
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 73 90 72 89 / 10 10 10 30
MKL 69 89 70 89 / 10 10 10 20
JBR 71 88 70 86 / 10 10 20 50
TUP 69 89 68 90 / 10 0 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 191505
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1005 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S. A
FEW SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST TENNESSEE EARLIER
THIS MORNING BUT THIS ACTIVITY HAS MOVED INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES IN SOME AREAS. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO
REMOVE MENTION OF POPS FOR TODAY.
ARS
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE MID SOUTH TODAY. RESIDUAL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. MORNING CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
ALONG WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
RISING WELL INTO THE 90S.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BUT SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH ALONG
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL LIFT
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH MAY BE GRAZED BY THE ACTIVITY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH. PLAN TO CARRY
CHANCE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
A THIRD AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE AS THE SHORTWAVE OVERSPREADS A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AREAS BY TUESDAY EVENING THAT SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DEGREE
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED APPEARS FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TOO EARLY TO
PROVIDE SPECIFIC DETAILS ON EVENTUAL THREATS AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
SEVERE EVENT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS.
THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEAVING BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ATTEMPS TO PHASE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. THE PHASING SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTHEAST
U.S. SHOULD HELP TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MKL/JBR/TUP THROUGH 19/14Z DUE
TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT IS
LOW AND LEFT OUT MENTION IN FORECAST AT MKL/JBR/TUP FOR NOW. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 18-25 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT MEM/JBR. SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5-8 KTS AT MKL/TUP AND BETWEEN 9-11 KTS AT MEM/JBR AFTER 20/00Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 89 73 90 72 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 88 69 89 70 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 89 71 88 70 / 10 10 10 20
TUP 88 69 89 68 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 191149
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 432 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE MID SOUTH TODAY. RESIDUAL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. MORNING CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
ALONG WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
RISING WELL INTO THE 90S.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BUT SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH ALONG
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL LIFT
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH MAY BE GRAZED BY THE ACTIVITY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH. PLAN TO CARRY
CHANCE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
A THIRD AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE AS THE SHORTWAVE OVERSPREADS A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AREAS BY TUESDAY EVENING THAT SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DEGREE
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED APPEARS FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TOO EARLY TO
PROVIDE SPECIFIC DETAILS ON EVENTUAL THREATS AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
SEVERE EVENT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS.
THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEAVING BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ATTEMPS TO PHASE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. THE PHASING SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTHEAST
U.S. SHOULD HELP TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MKL/JBR/TUP THROUGH 19/14Z DUE
TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE FOR LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT IS
LOW AND LEFT OUT MENTION IN FORECAST AT MKL/JBR/TUP FOR NOW. SOUTH
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY TO BETWEEN 10-15 KTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS
BETWEEN 18-25 KTS...ESPECIALLY AT MEM/JBR. SOUTH WINDS WILL DECREASE
TO 5-8 KTS AT MKL/TUP AND BETWEEN 9-11 KTS AT MEM/JBR AFTER 20/00Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 89 73 90 72 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 88 69 89 70 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 89 71 88 70 / 10 10 10 20
TUP 88 69 89 68 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 190932
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
432 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO
THE MID SOUTH TODAY. RESIDUAL TROUGHING OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE MID SOUTH THIS MORNING MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI IN THE VICINITY OF THE TENNESSEE RIVER.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS EAST AND SUPPRESSES CONVECTION. MORNING CLOUD COVER
WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES
ALONG WITH CONTINUED SEASONABLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES
RISING WELL INTO THE 90S.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
BUT SHOULD KEEP MAINLY DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER THE MID SOUTH ALONG
WITH VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES
WILL SWING AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW. THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL LIFT
INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL LIKELY FOLLOW A SIMILAR TRAJECTORY
LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...LIFTING
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. FAR
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH MAY BE GRAZED BY THE ACTIVITY
LATE MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING TO THE NORTH. PLAN TO CARRY
CHANCE POPS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI
BOOTHEEL AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
A THIRD AND STRONGER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO EJECT FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE MID SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
TAKE ON AN INCREASINGLY NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN IN ADVANCE
OF THIS FEATURE AS THE SHORTWAVE OVERSPREADS A WARM AND HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN
AREAS BY TUESDAY EVENING THAT SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE DEGREE
OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY EXPECTED APPEARS FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. IT STILL REMAINS TOO EARLY TO
PROVIDE SPECIFIC DETAILS ON EVENTUAL THREATS AND MAGNITUDE OF THE
SEVERE EVENT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT UNFOLDS.
THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT LEAVING BROAD TROUGHING IN PLACE OVER THE REGION INTO
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION AND ATTEMPS TO PHASE WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH EASTERN CANADA. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST INTO THURSDAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. THE PHASING SYSTEMS OVER THE NORTHEAST
U.S. SHOULD HELP TO CARVE OUT A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN SEABOARD FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO DRY
WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS.
JLH
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LATEST DATA STILL
SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST TONIGHT. KEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS OUT OF KMEM WITH JUST A MENTION OF LIGHT
FOG. CONTINUED MENTIONING A TEMPO OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KMKL...KJBR
AND KTUP FROM 19/10Z-19/14Z ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG. ANY LOWER
CONDS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE
OVERNIGHT INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY LATER SUNDAY
MORNING...DIMINISHING AGAIN AFT 20/00Z.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 89 73 90 72 / 10 10 10 10
MKL 88 69 89 70 / 10 10 10 10
JBR 89 71 88 70 / 10 10 10 20
TUP 88 69 89 68 / 10 10 0 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS64 KMEG 190422
AFDMEG
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1122 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
UPDATE...
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE LAST HOUR OR TWO ALONG A
WARM FRONT THAT STRETCHES FROM NEAR POPLAR BLUFF MISSOURI TO NEAR
JACKSON. THE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIFTING UP TO THE NORTHEAST. MODELS
HAVE BEEN SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AND BLOSSOMING
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST HAS 40 POPS ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE NEAR
THE TENNESSEE RIVER. WILL UPDATE TO BUMP UP TO 60 POPS AND WILL
LOWER POPS ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. MAY ALSO BUMP UP LOWS IN
MEMPHIS AS IT IS STILL 80 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR OTHERWISE REST OF
FORECAST LOOKS GOOD. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
KRM
DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SKIES ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.
THERE IS NOT MUCH ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
THE BEST CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
BY SUNDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS RIDGE WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER MOST OF THE
REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER AS WELL WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY REACH FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BY MONDAY
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA.
THE COLD FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE REGION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
THEN MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE WEEK WITH THE
BETTER CHANCE OF SOME OCCURRING ON TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE RISK
REMAINS RATHER SMALL AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK LOOK TO BE NEAR NORMAL.
ARS
&&
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. LATEST DATA STILL
SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVELS WILL NOT BE AS MOIST TONIGHT. KEPT THE
POSSIBILITY OF LOWER CIGS OUT OF KMEM WITH JUST A MENTION OF LIGHT
FOG. CONTINUED MENTIONING A TEMPO OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AT KMKL...KJBR
AND KTUP FROM 19/10Z-19/14Z ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT FOG. ANY LOWER
CONDS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY TO VFR SUNDAY MORNING AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT A LIGHT SOUTH BREEZE
OVERNIGHT INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY LATER SUNDAY
MORNING...DIMINISHING AGAIN AFT 20/00Z.
SJM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MEM 73 89 71 89 / 10 10 10 20
MKL 68 88 69 88 / 30 10 10 10
JBR 69 88 70 86 / 10 10 20 30
TUP 69 89 68 89 / 20 10 10 10
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&
$$
| 
