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000
FXUS64 KMEG 210429
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1129 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS
INDICATING ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO OCCUR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WILL ONLY
UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AT KMKL. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
SOUTH WITH KTUP HAVING THE BEST CHANCE OF A TSRA ON STATION SO
PLACED A VCTS THERE FROM 21/21Z - 22/01Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 210145
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
845 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS
INDICATING ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO OCCUR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WILL ONLY
UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH KTUP HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF A TSRA ON STATION SO PLACED A VCTS THERE.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 210145
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
845 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH AROUND SUNRISE. MODELS
INDICATING ALL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WELL NORTH
OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT. SOME CIRRUS IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH
NORTH MISSISSIPPI BUT GENERALLY EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO OCCUR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...WILL ONLY
UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH KTUP HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF A TSRA ON STATION SO PLACED A VCTS THERE.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 202301
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
601 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH KTUP HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF A TSRA ON STATION SO PLACED A VCTS THERE.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 202301
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
601 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION ON SUNDAY AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHRAS/TSRAS
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH KTUP HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE OF A TSRA ON STATION SO PLACED A VCTS THERE.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 202008
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (20/18Z-21/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
S-SW 7 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT SW 5 KTS OR LESS. WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
BECOMING WESTERLY 6-8 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 202008
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
308 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.
A COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANY RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM SIDE TONIGHT WITH LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. AS THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION...MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED
SO IT APPEARS THAT NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NOT
SEE ANY RAIN WHILE ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER SUNDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS IN THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI SUNDAY NIGHT
AND WITH THE SETTING OF THE SUN IT APPEARS THAT FEW IF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL OFF SOME AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. LOWS MONDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. AS
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY TAKES CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN ON
MONDAY DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER
THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES.
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUITE COOL WITH SOME LOCATIONS DROPPING BELOW
50 DEGREES BY TUESDAY MORNING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST STARTING TUESDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND BRING WARMER AIR BACK
INTO THE REGION. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM UP
SOME ON TUESDAY AND THEN REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION NEXT SATURDAY BRINGING A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (20/18Z-21/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
S-SW 7 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT SW 5 KTS OR LESS. WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
BECOMING WESTERLY 6-8 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 201707 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1207 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A VERY NICE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE
MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (20/18Z-21/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
S-SW 7 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT SW 5 KTS OR LESS. WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
BECOMING WESTERLY 6-8 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 201707 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1207 PM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 1004 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A VERY NICE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE
MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (20/18Z-21/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
S-SW 7 KTS. WINDS TONIGHT SW 5 KTS OR LESS. WINDS SUNDAY MORNING
BECOMING WESTERLY 6-8 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 201504
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1004 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A VERY NICE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE
MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT JBR THROUGH 20/13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S/SSW WINDS BETWEEN 6-8 KTS TODAY
THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 21/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 201504
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1004 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. A VERY NICE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WILL UPDATE FORECAST TO REMOVE
MENTION OF EARLY MORNING FOG.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT JBR THROUGH 20/13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S/SSW WINDS BETWEEN 6-8 KTS TODAY
THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 21/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 201131
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT JBR THROUGH 20/13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S/SSW WINDS BETWEEN 6-8 KTS TODAY
THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 21/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$






000
FXUS64 KMEG 201131
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CONDITIONS MAY AFFECT JBR THROUGH 20/13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS WILL INCREASE TO S/SSW WINDS BETWEEN 6-8 KTS TODAY
THEN BECOME LIGHT AFTER 21/00Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS64 KMEG 200845
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE MVFR...IFR...AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALREADY FORMED AT
KMKL AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES GETTING
AS LOW AS 1/4 SM. FALL WILL HAVE LIFTED FROM ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z
TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THE NIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 7 KTS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER 00Z. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMKL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 200845
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH TODAY BRINGING A CONTINUATION OF DRY CONDITIONS AND
WARM TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY LEVELS.

A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW STRONG STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. OVERALL SHEAR
SHOULD REMAIN MINIMAL...SO NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THE FRONT SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING
AND CLEAR THE GULF COAST STATES BY MONDAY EVENING. CANADIAN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
AND BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. PLEASANT EARLY FALL
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK
WITH DRY WEATHER AND SLOWLY WARMING TEMPERATURES BY WEEKS END.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE MVFR...IFR...AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALREADY FORMED AT
KMKL AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES GETTING
AS LOW AS 1/4 SM. FALL WILL HAVE LIFTED FROM ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z
TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THE NIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 7 KTS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER 00Z. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMKL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 200452
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1152 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING.


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD ONLY EXCEPTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE MVFR...IFR...AND LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING DUE TO FOG. AREAS OF FOG HAVE ALREADY FORMED AT
KMKL AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VISIBILITIES GETTING
AS LOW AS 1/4 SM. FALL WILL HAVE LIFTED FROM ALL TAF SITES BY 14Z
TOMORROW. LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THE NIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY WILL BE AROUND 7 KTS BEFORE
SUBSIDING AFTER 00Z. FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KMKL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 200153
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
853 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. ANY FOG THAT MAY FORM WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW.  LIGHT
WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THIS EVEVING THROUGH TONIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AROUND 7 KTS.

JPM3

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$










000
FXUS64 KMEG 200153
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
853 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR THE ENTIRE
MIDSOUTH. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. ANY FOG THAT MAY FORM WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW.  LIGHT
WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THIS EVEVING THROUGH TONIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AROUND 7 KTS.

JPM3

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 192344
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. ANY FOG THAT MAY FORM WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW.  LIGHT
WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THIS EVEVING THROUGH TONIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AROUND 7 KTS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 192344
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
644 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF PERIOD

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. ANY FOG THAT MAY FORM WILL LIFT BY 14Z TOMORROW.  LIGHT
WINDS WILL OCCUR THE REST OF THIS EVEVING THROUGH TONIGHT GRADUALLY
TURNING TO THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AROUND 7 KTS.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 192003
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF (19/18Z-20/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT GRADUALLY TURNING TO
THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY AROUND 7 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 192003
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
303 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 80S. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. WHICH SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY TONIGHT
AND INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO ONLY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED MAINLY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...COOLER AND DRIER WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
BY MONDAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. AS THE HIGH MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND SO TEMPERATURES WILL
GRADUALLY WARM A FEW DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS AND WILL REMAIN THAT WAY THROUGH
NEXT FRIDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF (19/18Z-20/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT GRADUALLY TURNING TO
THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY AROUND 7 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 191725 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 924 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED OVER THE REGION AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE FOUND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
SOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE GREATEST
CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE WITH MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND A
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF VISIBILITIES LOWER FURTHER. ANY FOG SHOULD
MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH INTO
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE BUT AS WINDS TURN BACK
FROM THE SOUTH EXPECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A RETURN TO DRY...COOLER...AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS
PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF (19/18Z-20/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT GRADUALLY TURNING TO
THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY AROUND 7 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 191725 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 924 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED OVER THE REGION AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE FOUND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
SOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE GREATEST
CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE WITH MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND A
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF VISIBILITIES LOWER FURTHER. ANY FOG SHOULD
MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH INTO
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE BUT AS WINDS TURN BACK
FROM THE SOUTH EXPECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A RETURN TO DRY...COOLER...AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS
PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF (19/18Z-20/18Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AREAS OF FOG FORMING
LATE TONIGHT WITH KMKL AND KTUP POSSIBLY IFR...KMEM AND KJBR
POSSIBLY MVFR. LIGHT WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT GRADUALLY TURNING TO
THE SE. WINDS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTHERLY AROUND 7 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 191424
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
924 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED OVER THE REGION AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE FOUND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
SOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE GREATEST
CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE WITH MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND A
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF VISIBILITIES LOWER FURTHER. ANY FOG SHOULD
MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH INTO
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE BUT AS WINDS TURN BACK
FROM THE SOUTH EXPECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A RETURN TO DRY...COOLER...AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS
PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
19/14Z...AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN
19/08-12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 191424
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
924 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
DENSE FOG HAS ENDED OVER THE REGION AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. DRY AND WARM WEATHER WILL BE FOUND FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF DENSE
FOG ADVISORY.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
SOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE GREATEST
CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE WITH MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND A
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF VISIBILITIES LOWER FURTHER. ANY FOG SHOULD
MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH INTO
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE BUT AS WINDS TURN BACK
FROM THE SOUTH EXPECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A RETURN TO DRY...COOLER...AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS
PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
19/14Z...AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN
19/08-12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 191130
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
630 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
SOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE GREATEST
CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE WITH MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND A
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF VISIBILITIES LOWER FURTHER. ANY FOG SHOULD
MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH INTO
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE BUT AS WINDS TURN BACK
FROM THE SOUTH EXPECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A RETURN TO DRY...COOLER...AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS
PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
19/14Z...AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN
19/08-12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CRITTENDEN-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CHESTER-
     FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 191130
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
630 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
SOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE GREATEST
CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE WITH MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND A
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF VISIBILITIES LOWER FURTHER. ANY FOG SHOULD
MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH INTO
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE BUT AS WINDS TURN BACK
FROM THE SOUTH EXPECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A RETURN TO DRY...COOLER...AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS
PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS WILL PRODUCE MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
19/14Z...AND MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT BETWEEN
19/08-12Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CRITTENDEN-
     LEE AR-PHILLIPS-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON
     MS-CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE
     MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CHESTER-
     FAYETTE-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-MCNAIRY-SHELBY.

&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 190917
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
SOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE GREATEST
CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE WITH MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND A
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF VISIBILITIES LOWER FURTHER. ANY FOG SHOULD
MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH INTO
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE BUT AS WINDS TURN BACK
FROM THE SOUTH EXPECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A RETURN TO DRY...COOLER...AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS
PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  SOME MVFR CIGS AND
VIS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

JDS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 190917
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
417 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE MID
SOUTH FROM THE WEST TODAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP CONDITIONS DRY WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED LATER TODAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH INTO THE LOWER 80S NORTH TO UPPER 80S SOUTH. THE GREATEST
CONCERN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI WHERE
CONDITIONS ARE MOST FAVORABLE WITH MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND A
DECOUPLED ATMOSPHERE. THIS AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY IF VISIBILITIES LOWER FURTHER. ANY FOG SHOULD
MIX OUT BY MID MORNING WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY SUNNY.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE MID SOUTH INTO
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE BUT AS WINDS TURN BACK
FROM THE SOUTH EXPECT WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MID SOUTH
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH A RETURN TO DRY...COOLER...AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THIS
PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  SOME MVFR CIGS AND
VIS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

JDS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 190525
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN POTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT...EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCREASE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

JPM3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO OKLAHOMA. INCREASED POPS FOR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

JPM3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT DUE
TO CLOUD COVER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
UPPER 80S. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH GEORGIA ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND INTO WEST TEXAS.

AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH.

BY MONDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  SOME MVFR CIGS AND
VIS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

JDS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 190525
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1225 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN POTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT...EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCREASE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

JPM3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO OKLAHOMA. INCREASED POPS FOR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

JPM3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT DUE
TO CLOUD COVER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
UPPER 80S. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH GEORGIA ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND INTO WEST TEXAS.

AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH.

BY MONDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

MAINLY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.  NO ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.  SOME MVFR CIGS AND
VIS IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW.

JDS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 190306
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1006 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN POTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT...EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCREASE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

JPM3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO OKLAHOMA. INCREASED POPS FOR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

JPM3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT DUE
TO CLOUD COVER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
UPPER 80S. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH GEORGIA ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND INTO WEST TEXAS.

AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH.

BY MONDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL RESULT IN
VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER AFTER
SUNSET...AS CONVECTION DISSIPATES AND COLD POOLS WARM...PREVAILING
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EAST...OR CALM WINDS. NO ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
EXPECTED AT ANY SITE...ALTHOUGH TUP WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT A LITTLE BR/FG COULD FORM...ADJUSTED
TIMES TO 9-13Z...WITH LOWEST VIS OF 2-3SM AT TUP/MKL. BEYOND 13Z
VFR EXPECTED...AFT 15Z LGT WINDS SHIFTING MORE E-ESE AT ALL
LOCATIONS AS HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW...ONLY AROUND 5 KT.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 190306
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1006 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE EASTERN POTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH THROUGH
THE LATE NIGHT...EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED
TO INCREASE POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT IN EXTREME NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

JPM3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO OKLAHOMA. INCREASED POPS FOR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

JPM3

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT DUE
TO CLOUD COVER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
UPPER 80S. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH GEORGIA ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND INTO WEST TEXAS.

AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH.

BY MONDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL RESULT IN
VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER AFTER
SUNSET...AS CONVECTION DISSIPATES AND COLD POOLS WARM...PREVAILING
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EAST...OR CALM WINDS. NO ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
EXPECTED AT ANY SITE...ALTHOUGH TUP WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT A LITTLE BR/FG COULD FORM...ADJUSTED
TIMES TO 9-13Z...WITH LOWEST VIS OF 2-3SM AT TUP/MKL. BEYOND 13Z
VFR EXPECTED...AFT 15Z LGT WINDS SHIFTING MORE E-ESE AT ALL
LOCATIONS AS HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW...ONLY AROUND 5 KT.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 190026
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
726 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO OKLAHOMA. INCREASED POPS FOR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

JPM3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT DUE
TO CLOUD COVER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
UPPER 80S. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH GEORGIA ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND INTO WEST TEXAS.

AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH.

BY MONDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL RESULT IN
VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER AFTER
SUNSET...AS CONVECTION DISSIPATES AND COLD POOLS WARM...PREVAILING
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EAST...OR CALM WINDS. NO ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
EXPECTED AT ANY SITE...ALTHOUGH TUP WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT A LITTLE BR/FG COULD FORM...ADJUSTED
TIMES TO 9-13Z...WITH LOWEST VIS OF 2-3SM AT TUP/MKL. BEYOND 13Z
VFR EXPECTED...AFT 15Z LGT WINDS SHIFTING MORE E-ESE AT ALL
LOCATIONS AS HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW...ONLY AROUND 5 KT.

&&

.

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 190026
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
726 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI TONIGHT
NORTH OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI INTO OKLAHOMA. INCREASED POPS FOR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

JPM3

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT DUE
TO CLOUD COVER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
UPPER 80S. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH GEORGIA ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND INTO WEST TEXAS.

AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH.

BY MONDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL RESULT IN
VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER AFTER
SUNSET...AS CONVECTION DISSIPATES AND COLD POOLS WARM...PREVAILING
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EAST...OR CALM WINDS. NO ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
EXPECTED AT ANY SITE...ALTHOUGH TUP WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT A LITTLE BR/FG COULD FORM...ADJUSTED
TIMES TO 9-13Z...WITH LOWEST VIS OF 2-3SM AT TUP/MKL. BEYOND 13Z
VFR EXPECTED...AFT 15Z LGT WINDS SHIFTING MORE E-ESE AT ALL
LOCATIONS AS HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW...ONLY AROUND 5 KT.

&&

.

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 182323
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT DUE
TO CLOUD COVER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
UPPER 80S. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH GEORGIA ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND INTO WEST TEXAS.

AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH.

BY MONDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL RESULT IN
VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER AFTER
SUNSET...AS CONVECTION DISSIPATES AND COLD POOLS WARM...PREVAILING
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EAST...OR CALM WINDS. NO ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
EXPECTED AT ANY SITE...ALTHOUGH TUP WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT A LITTLE BR/FG COULD FORM...ADJUSTED
TIMES TO 9-13Z...WITH LOWEST VIS OF 2-3SM AT TUP/MKL. BEYOND 13Z
VFR EXPECTED...AFT 15Z LGT WINDS SHIFTING MORE E-ESE AT ALL
LOCATIONS AS HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW...ONLY AROUND 5 KT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 182323
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT DUE
TO CLOUD COVER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
UPPER 80S. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH GEORGIA ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND INTO WEST TEXAS.

AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH.

BY MONDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL RESULT IN
VARIABLE AND GUSTY WINDS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER AFTER
SUNSET...AS CONVECTION DISSIPATES AND COLD POOLS WARM...PREVAILING
FLOW WILL RESULT IN EAST...OR CALM WINDS. NO ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
EXPECTED AT ANY SITE...ALTHOUGH TUP WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.
WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT A LITTLE BR/FG COULD FORM...ADJUSTED
TIMES TO 9-13Z...WITH LOWEST VIS OF 2-3SM AT TUP/MKL. BEYOND 13Z
VFR EXPECTED...AFT 15Z LGT WINDS SHIFTING MORE E-ESE AT ALL
LOCATIONS AS HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST.

WINDS WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TOMORROW...ONLY AROUND 5 KT.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 181956
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
256 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT DUE
TO CLOUD COVER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
UPPER 80S. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH GEORGIA ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND INTO WEST TEXAS.

AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH.

BY MONDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK 925MB BOUNDARY HAVE CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST TN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MKL AREA BY 1730-18Z. KEPT TEMPO FOR
-TSRA IN AT MKL TIL 19Z. AFT 19Z GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
TODAY WILL BE OVR MEM/TUP TERMINALS HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPARSE...SO JUST KEPT THE VCTS IN FOR BOTH TERMINALS THRU 23-00Z.
AFTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST MORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF ALL TAFS BEYOND 00Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT A LITTLE BR/FG COULD FORM...ADJUSTED TIMES TO
9-13Z...WITH LOWEST VIS OF 2-3SM AT TUP/MKL. BEYOND 13Z VFR
EXPECTED...AFT 15Z LGT WINDS SHIFTING MORE E-ESE AT ALL LOCATIONS
AS HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST.

NGU

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 181956
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
256 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND MOSTLY SUNNY ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES VARY QUITE A BIT DUE
TO CLOUD COVER WITH READINGS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE
UPPER 80S. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40. THIS ACTIVITY HAS FORMED NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH GEORGIA ACROSS NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND INTO WEST TEXAS.

AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT THE THREAT OF ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES ON FRIDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
THINGS DRY OVER THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S. DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES.

BY SUNDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION. MOISTURE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AHEAD OF THE FRONT SO THERE WILL BE ONLY A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AS THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF RAIN WILL DIMINISH.

BY MONDAY...SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN U.S. FOR MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. AS A RESULT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK 925MB BOUNDARY HAVE CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST TN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MKL AREA BY 1730-18Z. KEPT TEMPO FOR
-TSRA IN AT MKL TIL 19Z. AFT 19Z GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
TODAY WILL BE OVR MEM/TUP TERMINALS HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPARSE...SO JUST KEPT THE VCTS IN FOR BOTH TERMINALS THRU 23-00Z.
AFTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST MORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF ALL TAFS BEYOND 00Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT A LITTLE BR/FG COULD FORM...ADJUSTED TIMES TO
9-13Z...WITH LOWEST VIS OF 2-3SM AT TUP/MKL. BEYOND 13Z VFR
EXPECTED...AFT 15Z LGT WINDS SHIFTING MORE E-ESE AT ALL LOCATIONS
AS HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST.

NGU

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 181733
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1233 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

FOR 18Z TAF CYCLE

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1006 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST TENNESSEE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED POPS TO INCLUDE ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF A BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. TRAINING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LIKE
LAST NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. CLOSER
TO HOME A SECOND WEAKER LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAD FORMED OVER
WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THEN THIS TIME
FRAME LAST NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...PLAYING A MORE CONSERVATIVE ROLE IN POPS
TODAY AS MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE CURRENT SETUP.
LATEST 00Z SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE VOID AREA BETWEEN THE TWO
MENTIONED CONVECTION LINES RAPIDLY FILLING IN OVER THE NEXT 4
HOURS. FEEL THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY AS HIGHER THETA E VALUES STAY OVER THE OZARKS AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH THE MODELS
TO WARM FOR YESTERDAYS HIGHS HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TODAY. SO HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOW 80S. FOR
TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH KEEPING LOWS
IN THE MID 60S ONCE AGAIN...WHILE LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTH AND EAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THIS
PERIOD...WITH MAYBE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSVERSE THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL PROVIDE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER DESPITE
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
ONE REASON MAY BE THAT ENERGY FROM ODILE WILL HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER MAY BE THE
ENERGY WITH THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT REMAINS FOCUSED IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY BUILD THIS
PERIOD WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEAR NEUTRAL WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. DRY CONDITIONS AND BOUTS OF SUN
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK 925MB BOUNDARY HAVE CONTINUED TO
PRODUCE CONVECTION OVER NORTHWEST TN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
AREA WILL LIKELY AFFECT THE MKL AREA BY 1730-18Z. KEPT TEMPO FOR
-TSRA IN AT MKL TIL 19Z. AFT 19Z GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION
TODAY WILL BE OVR MEM/TUP TERMINALS HOWEVER COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPARSE...SO JUST KEPT THE VCTS IN FOR BOTH TERMINALS THRU 23-00Z.
AFTER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST MORE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING MOVES IN WHICH IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OUT OF ALL TAFS BEYOND 00Z. WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT A LITTLE BR/FG COULD FORM...ADJUSTED TIMES TO
9-13Z...WITH LOWEST VIS OF 2-3SM AT TUP/MKL. BEYOND 13Z VFR
EXPECTED...AFT 15Z LGT WINDS SHIFTING MORE E-ESE AT ALL LOCATIONS
AS HIGH TO THE NORTH MOVES EAST.

NGU

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 181506
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1006 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLOUDY OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO WEST TENNESSEE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE RAISED POPS TO INCLUDE ALL OF WEST TENNESSEE.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF A BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. TRAINING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LIKE
LAST NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. CLOSER
TO HOME A SECOND WEAKER LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAD FORMED OVER
WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THEN THIS TIME
FRAME LAST NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...PLAYING A MORE CONSERVATIVE ROLE IN POPS
TODAY AS MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE CURRENT SETUP.
LATEST 00Z SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE VOID AREA BETWEEN THE TWO
MENTIONED CONVECTION LINES RAPIDLY FILLING IN OVER THE NEXT 4
HOURS. FEEL THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY AS HIGHER THETA E VALUES STAY OVER THE OZARKS AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH THE MODELS
TO WARM FOR YESTERDAYS HIGHS HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TODAY. SO HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOW 80S. FOR
TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH KEEPING LOWS
IN THE MID 60S ONCE AGAIN...WHILE LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTH AND EAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THIS
PERIOD...WITH MAYBE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSVERSE THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL PROVIDE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER DESPITE
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
ONE REASON MAY BE THAT ENERGY FROM ODILE WILL HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER MAY BE THE
ENERGY WITH THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT REMAINS FOCUSED IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY BUILD THIS
PERIOD WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEAR NEUTRAL WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. DRY CONDITIONS AND BOUTS OF SUN
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY NOTED AROUND 925MB REMAINS THE FOCUS THIS
MORNING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHIFTING FROM KJBR AND KMKL THIS MORNING TO KMEM AND KTUP
LATER TODAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END THIS
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. REDUCED VSBYS
SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 181225
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
725 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF A BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. TRAINING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LIKE
LAST NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. CLOSER
TO HOME A SECOND WEAKER LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAD FORMED OVER
WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THEN THIS TIME
FRAME LAST NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...PLAYING A MORE CONSERVATIVE ROLE IN POPS
TODAY AS MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE CURRENT SETUP.
LATEST 00Z SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE VOID AREA BETWEEN THE TWO
MENTIONED CONVECTION LINES RAPIDLY FILLING IN OVER THE NEXT 4
HOURS. FEEL THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY AS HIGHER THETA E VALUES STAY OVER THE OZARKS AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH THE MODELS
TO WARM FOR YESTERDAYS HIGHS HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TODAY. SO HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOW 80S. FOR
TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH KEEPING LOWS
IN THE MID 60S ONCE AGAIN...WHILE LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTH AND EAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THIS
PERIOD...WITH MAYBE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSVERSE THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL PROVIDE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER DESPITE
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
ONE REASON MAY BE THAT ENERGY FROM ODILE WILL HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER MAY BE THE
ENERGY WITH THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT REMAINS FOCUSED IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY BUILD THIS
PERIOD WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEAR NEUTRAL WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. DRY CONDITIONS AND BOUTS OF SUN
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY NOTED AROUND 925MB REMAINS THE FOCUS THIS
MORNING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHIFTING FROM KJBR AND KMKL THIS MORNING TO KMEM AND KTUP
LATER TODAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END THIS
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. REDUCED VSBYS
SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 181225
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
725 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF A BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. TRAINING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LIKE
LAST NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. CLOSER
TO HOME A SECOND WEAKER LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAD FORMED OVER
WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THEN THIS TIME
FRAME LAST NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...PLAYING A MORE CONSERVATIVE ROLE IN POPS
TODAY AS MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE CURRENT SETUP.
LATEST 00Z SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE VOID AREA BETWEEN THE TWO
MENTIONED CONVECTION LINES RAPIDLY FILLING IN OVER THE NEXT 4
HOURS. FEEL THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY AS HIGHER THETA E VALUES STAY OVER THE OZARKS AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH THE MODELS
TO WARM FOR YESTERDAYS HIGHS HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TODAY. SO HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOW 80S. FOR
TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH KEEPING LOWS
IN THE MID 60S ONCE AGAIN...WHILE LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTH AND EAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THIS
PERIOD...WITH MAYBE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSVERSE THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL PROVIDE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER DESPITE
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
ONE REASON MAY BE THAT ENERGY FROM ODILE WILL HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER MAY BE THE
ENERGY WITH THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT REMAINS FOCUSED IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY BUILD THIS
PERIOD WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEAR NEUTRAL WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. DRY CONDITIONS AND BOUTS OF SUN
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

A LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY NOTED AROUND 925MB REMAINS THE FOCUS THIS
MORNING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHIFTING FROM KJBR AND KMKL THIS MORNING TO KMEM AND KTUP
LATER TODAY. MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR BY LATE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AT ALL SITES
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD END THIS
EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY SLIPS SOUTH OF THE REGION. REDUCED VSBYS
SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP AT ALL SITES LATE TONIGHT IN AREAS OF FOG.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS64 KMEG 180825
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
325 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF A BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. TRAINING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LIKE
LAST NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. CLOSER
TO HOME A SECOND WEAKER LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAD FORMED OVER
WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THEN THIS TIME
FRAME LAST NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...PLAYING A MORE CONSERVATIVE ROLE IN POPS
TODAY AS MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE CURRENT SETUP.
LATEST 00Z SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE VOID AREA BETWEEN THE TWO
MENTIONED CONVECTION LINES RAPIDLY FILLING IN OVER THE NEXT 4
HOURS. FEEL THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY AS HIGHER THETA E VALUES STAY OVER THE OZARKS AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH THE MODELS
TO WARM FOR YESTERDAYS HIGHS HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TODAY. SO HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOW 80S. FOR
TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH KEEPING LOWS
IN THE MID 60S ONCE AGAIN...WHILE LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTH AND EAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THIS
PERIOD...WITH MAYBE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSVERSE THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL PROVIDE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER DESPITE
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
ONE REASON MAY BE THAT ENERGY FROM ODILE WILL HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER MAY BE THE
ENERGY WITH THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT REMAINS FOCUSED IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY BUILD THIS
PERIOD WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEAR NEUTRAL WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. DRY CONDITIONS AND BOUTS OF SUN
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

MODELS INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS SW MO
OVERNIGHT. THUS FAR ONE CELL HAS DEVELOPED BUT IF MORE DOES DEVELOP
THE ACTIVITY COULD PUSH INTO KJBR AROUND 7-8Z...POSSIBLY GETTING TO
KMEM AROUND 9-10Z. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF VCTS WORDING. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AT
KMKL AS WELL. SHOULD RETURN TO VFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS64 KMEG 180825
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
325 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MIDSOUTH CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF A BOUNDARY
DRAPED OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. TRAINING CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED LIKE
LAST NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. CLOSER
TO HOME A SECOND WEAKER LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS HAD FORMED OVER
WEST TENNESSEE. TEMPERATURES WERE A BIT WARMER THEN THIS TIME
FRAME LAST NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S TO THE UPPER 60S.
WINDS WERE GENERALLY CALM OR LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...PLAYING A MORE CONSERVATIVE ROLE IN POPS
TODAY AS MODELS SEEM TO BE STRUGGLING WITH THE CURRENT SETUP.
LATEST 00Z SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE VOID AREA BETWEEN THE TWO
MENTIONED CONVECTION LINES RAPIDLY FILLING IN OVER THE NEXT 4
HOURS. FEEL THAT ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE ISOLATED OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY AS HIGHER THETA E VALUES STAY OVER THE OZARKS AS DRIER AIR
WORKS INTO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND WITH THE MODELS
TO WARM FOR YESTERDAYS HIGHS HAVE OPTED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
TODAY. SO HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOW 80S. FOR
TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH KEEPING LOWS
IN THE MID 60S ONCE AGAIN...WHILE LOWS DROP BACK INTO THE 50S
NORTH AND EAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NOT MUCH CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THIS
PERIOD...WITH MAYBE A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTH
MISSISSIPPI TOMORROW. THE CURRENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER
THE ROCKIES IS FORECAST TO FLATTEN OUT OVER THE PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES TRANSVERSE THE UPPER
MIDWEST. MORE SUNSHINE ALONG WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF BUILDING
HEIGHTS WILL PROVIDE FOR WARMER TEMPERATURES.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE TRENDING DRIER DESPITE
THE REMNANTS OF ODILE AND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
ONE REASON MAY BE THAT ENERGY FROM ODILE WILL HAVE BEEN EXHAUSTED
BY THE TIME IT CROSSES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER MAY BE THE
ENERGY WITH THE DESCENDING COLD FRONT REMAINS FOCUSED IN THE UPPER
OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING SOUTH ON MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY BUILD THIS
PERIOD WHILE THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS NEAR NEUTRAL WITH REGARDS
TO TEMPERATURE ADVECTION. DRY CONDITIONS AND BOUTS OF SUN
SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

MODELS INDICATING REDEVELOPMENT OF SHRAS/TSRAS ACROSS SW MO
OVERNIGHT. THUS FAR ONE CELL HAS DEVELOPED BUT IF MORE DOES DEVELOP
THE ACTIVITY COULD PUSH INTO KJBR AROUND 7-8Z...POSSIBLY GETTING TO
KMEM AROUND 9-10Z. WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF VCTS WORDING. CIGS WILL
GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR TONIGHT. SOME PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AT
KMKL AS WELL. SHOULD RETURN TO VFR DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$









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