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000
FXUS64 KMEG 012005
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
INVOF OF THIS AXIS. SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INVOF THESE FEATURES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON WED/THU ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH
EAST AND GET ABSORBED INTO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE COOLER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN MEMPHIS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS.

AS THIS WEAK UPPER LOW MEANDERS AROUND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
HOWEVER MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.
LOOKING OUT A LITTLE FURTHER THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT ON BOARD WITH
THIS SO PROBABLY A LITTLE EARLY TO GET OUR HOPES UP FOR SOME FALL
LIKE WEATHER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 012005
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS INTO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN TEXAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING
INVOF OF THIS AXIS. SKIES ARE PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POPPING UP ACROSS EASTERN ARKANSAS.
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS.

THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INVOF THESE FEATURES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BUT COVERAGE WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW. BEST CHANCES WILL OCCUR ON WED/THU ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH MISSISSIPPI. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH
EAST AND GET ABSORBED INTO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. MEANWHILE UPPER RIDGING WILL BE CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST.
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 60S IN THE COOLER SPOTS ACROSS THE EAST TO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S IN MEMPHIS. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN
SECTIONS LATE TONIGHT AND PERHAPS AGAIN ON SUBSEQUENT NIGHTS.

AS THIS WEAK UPPER LOW MEANDERS AROUND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IT MAY PROMOTE ISOLATED SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH.
HOWEVER MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE AND WARMER THAN NORMAL.
LOOKING OUT A LITTLE FURTHER THE GFS TRIES TO BRING A COLD FRONT
SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY TUESDAY. THE ECMWF IS NOT ON BOARD WITH
THIS SO PROBABLY A LITTLE EARLY TO GET OUR HOPES UP FOR SOME FALL
LIKE WEATHER.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011734
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS PUSHING INTO THE DELTA REGION ATTM. SOME
CLOUDS ARE PUSHING NORTH INTO ARKANSAS AND MOST OF THESE SHOULD
STAY TO THE WEST THOUGH SOME MAY CREEP INTO THE DELTA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM NEAR
OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS TO A WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN TEXAS. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT ISOLD
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR INVOF THIS FEATURE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

CURRENTLY...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN FAVORED AREAS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM
1/4SM TO 3SM AT MKL. THE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL SOLAR HEATING
BEGINS TO ERODE THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHEAR OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT THROUGH SURFACE
OBS...BUT A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY DOES STILL EXIST. FOR THIS
REASON...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS. THESE WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARMER
AS WELL...WITH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. POINTS NORTHEAST WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE FORECAST COMPLETELY DRIES OUT THROUGH THE MID AND EVEN LATE
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
WELL NORTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA WITH THE MID-
SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WHEN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT PRESENT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION
WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE MORE SLOWLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING
THIS PROCESS FURTHER WITH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN HOW STRONG THE FORECAST RIDGING WILL BE. LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011734
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS PUSHING INTO THE DELTA REGION ATTM. SOME
CLOUDS ARE PUSHING NORTH INTO ARKANSAS AND MOST OF THESE SHOULD
STAY TO THE WEST THOUGH SOME MAY CREEP INTO THE DELTA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM NEAR
OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS TO A WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN TEXAS. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT ISOLD
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR INVOF THIS FEATURE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

CURRENTLY...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN FAVORED AREAS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM
1/4SM TO 3SM AT MKL. THE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL SOLAR HEATING
BEGINS TO ERODE THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHEAR OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT THROUGH SURFACE
OBS...BUT A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY DOES STILL EXIST. FOR THIS
REASON...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS. THESE WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARMER
AS WELL...WITH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. POINTS NORTHEAST WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE FORECAST COMPLETELY DRIES OUT THROUGH THE MID AND EVEN LATE
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
WELL NORTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA WITH THE MID-
SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WHEN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT PRESENT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION
WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE MORE SLOWLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING
THIS PROCESS FURTHER WITH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN HOW STRONG THE FORECAST RIDGING WILL BE. LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011734
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS PUSHING INTO THE DELTA REGION ATTM. SOME
CLOUDS ARE PUSHING NORTH INTO ARKANSAS AND MOST OF THESE SHOULD
STAY TO THE WEST THOUGH SOME MAY CREEP INTO THE DELTA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM NEAR
OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS TO A WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN TEXAS. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT ISOLD
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR INVOF THIS FEATURE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

CURRENTLY...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN FAVORED AREAS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM
1/4SM TO 3SM AT MKL. THE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL SOLAR HEATING
BEGINS TO ERODE THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHEAR OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT THROUGH SURFACE
OBS...BUT A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY DOES STILL EXIST. FOR THIS
REASON...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS. THESE WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARMER
AS WELL...WITH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. POINTS NORTHEAST WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE FORECAST COMPLETELY DRIES OUT THROUGH THE MID AND EVEN LATE
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
WELL NORTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA WITH THE MID-
SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WHEN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT PRESENT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION
WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE MORE SLOWLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING
THIS PROCESS FURTHER WITH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN HOW STRONG THE FORECAST RIDGING WILL BE. LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011734
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS PUSHING INTO THE DELTA REGION ATTM. SOME
CLOUDS ARE PUSHING NORTH INTO ARKANSAS AND MOST OF THESE SHOULD
STAY TO THE WEST THOUGH SOME MAY CREEP INTO THE DELTA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM NEAR
OF THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS TO A WEAK UPPER LOW
OVER EASTERN TEXAS. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT ISOLD
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR INVOF THIS FEATURE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

CURRENTLY...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN FAVORED AREAS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM
1/4SM TO 3SM AT MKL. THE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL SOLAR HEATING
BEGINS TO ERODE THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHEAR OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT THROUGH SURFACE
OBS...BUT A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY DOES STILL EXIST. FOR THIS
REASON...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS. THESE WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARMER
AS WELL...WITH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. POINTS NORTHEAST WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE FORECAST COMPLETELY DRIES OUT THROUGH THE MID AND EVEN LATE
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
WELL NORTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA WITH THE MID-
SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WHEN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT PRESENT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION
WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE MORE SLOWLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING
THIS PROCESS FURTHER WITH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN HOW STRONG THE FORECAST RIDGING WILL BE. LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
PATCHY AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT OVER EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WHICH COULD PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011536
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS TEH MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS PUSHING INTO THE DELTA REGION ATTM. SOME
CLOUDS ARE PUSHING NORTH INTO ARKANSAS AND MOST OF THESE SHOULD
STAY TO THE WEST THOUGH SOME MAY CREEP INTO THE DELTA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRATCHES FROM NEAR OF
THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN TEXAS. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT ISOLD
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR INVOF THIS FEATURE. THIS ACTITVITY
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WIL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

CURRENTLY...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN FAVORED AREAS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM
1/4SM TO 3SM AT MKL. THE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL SOLAR HEATING
BEGINS TO ERODE THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHEAR OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT THROUGH SURFACE
OBS...BUT A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY DOES STILL EXIST. FOR THIS
REASON...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS. THESE WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARMER
AS WELL...WITH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. POINTS NORTHEAST WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE FORECAST COMPLETELY DRIES OUT THROUGH THE MID AND EVEN LATE
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
WELL NORTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA WITH THE MID-
SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WHEN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT PRESENT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION
WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE MORE SLOWLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING
THIS PROCESS FURTHER WITH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN HOW STRONG THE FORECAST RIDGING WILL BE. LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG AT KMKL AND KTUP BOTH EARLY
THIS MORNING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SHOULD BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011536
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS TEH MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING WITH
JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS PUSHING INTO THE DELTA REGION ATTM. SOME
CLOUDS ARE PUSHING NORTH INTO ARKANSAS AND MOST OF THESE SHOULD
STAY TO THE WEST THOUGH SOME MAY CREEP INTO THE DELTA OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRATCHES FROM NEAR OF
THE OHIO RIVER THROUGH WESTERN ARKANSAS TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER
EASTERN TEXAS. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT ISOLD
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR INVOF THIS FEATURE. THIS ACTITVITY
SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WIL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

CURRENTLY...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN FAVORED AREAS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM
1/4SM TO 3SM AT MKL. THE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL SOLAR HEATING
BEGINS TO ERODE THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHEAR OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT THROUGH SURFACE
OBS...BUT A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY DOES STILL EXIST. FOR THIS
REASON...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS. THESE WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARMER
AS WELL...WITH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. POINTS NORTHEAST WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE FORECAST COMPLETELY DRIES OUT THROUGH THE MID AND EVEN LATE
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
WELL NORTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA WITH THE MID-
SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WHEN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT PRESENT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION
WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE MORE SLOWLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING
THIS PROCESS FURTHER WITH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN HOW STRONG THE FORECAST RIDGING WILL BE. LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG AT KMKL AND KTUP BOTH EARLY
THIS MORNING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SHOULD BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011210
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
710 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

CURRENTLY...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN FAVORED AREAS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM
1/4SM TO 3SM AT MKL. THE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL SOLAR HEATING
BEGINS TO ERODE THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHEAR OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT THROUGH SURFACE
OBS...BUT A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY DOES STILL EXIST. FOR THIS
REASON...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS. THESE WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARMER
AS WELL...WITH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. POINTS NORTHEAST WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE FORECAST COMPLETELY DRIES OUT THROUGH THE MID AND EVEN LATE
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
WELL NORTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA WITH THE MID-
SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WHEN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT PRESENT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION
WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE MORE SLOWLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING
THIS PROCESS FURTHER WITH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN HOW STRONG THE FORECAST RIDGING WILL BE. LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG AT KMKL AND KTUP BOTH EARLY
THIS MORNING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SHOULD BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011210
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
710 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

CURRENTLY...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN FAVORED AREAS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM
1/4SM TO 3SM AT MKL. THE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL SOLAR HEATING
BEGINS TO ERODE THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHEAR OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT THROUGH SURFACE
OBS...BUT A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY DOES STILL EXIST. FOR THIS
REASON...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS. THESE WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARMER
AS WELL...WITH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. POINTS NORTHEAST WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE FORECAST COMPLETELY DRIES OUT THROUGH THE MID AND EVEN LATE
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
WELL NORTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA WITH THE MID-
SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WHEN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT PRESENT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION
WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE MORE SLOWLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING
THIS PROCESS FURTHER WITH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN HOW STRONG THE FORECAST RIDGING WILL BE. LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG AT KMKL AND KTUP BOTH EARLY
THIS MORNING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SHOULD BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011210
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
710 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

CURRENTLY...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN FAVORED AREAS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM
1/4SM TO 3SM AT MKL. THE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL SOLAR HEATING
BEGINS TO ERODE THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHEAR OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT THROUGH SURFACE
OBS...BUT A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY DOES STILL EXIST. FOR THIS
REASON...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS. THESE WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARMER
AS WELL...WITH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. POINTS NORTHEAST WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE FORECAST COMPLETELY DRIES OUT THROUGH THE MID AND EVEN LATE
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
WELL NORTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA WITH THE MID-
SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WHEN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT PRESENT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION
WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE MORE SLOWLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING
THIS PROCESS FURTHER WITH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN HOW STRONG THE FORECAST RIDGING WILL BE. LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG AT KMKL AND KTUP BOTH EARLY
THIS MORNING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SHOULD BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011210
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
710 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 358 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

CURRENTLY...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN FAVORED AREAS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM
1/4SM TO 3SM AT MKL. THE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL SOLAR HEATING
BEGINS TO ERODE THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHEAR OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT THROUGH SURFACE
OBS...BUT A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY DOES STILL EXIST. FOR THIS
REASON...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS. THESE WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARMER
AS WELL...WITH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. POINTS NORTHEAST WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE FORECAST COMPLETELY DRIES OUT THROUGH THE MID AND EVEN LATE
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
WELL NORTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA WITH THE MID-
SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WHEN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT PRESENT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION
WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE MORE SLOWLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING
THIS PROCESS FURTHER WITH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN HOW STRONG THE FORECAST RIDGING WILL BE. LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF VSBY REDUCTIONS IN FOG AT KMKL AND KTUP BOTH EARLY
THIS MORNING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. DIURNAL CUMULUS ALONG
WITH HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS SHOULD BE PRESENT THROUGH THE DAY BUT NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IF ANY CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 010858
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
358 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

CURRENTLY...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN FAVORED AREAS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM
1/4SM TO 3SM AT MKL. THE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL SOLAR HEATING
BEGINS TO ERODE THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHEAR OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT THROUGH SURFACE
OBS...BUT A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY DOES STILL EXIST. FOR THIS
REASON...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS. THESE WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARMER
AS WELL...WITH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. POINTS NORTHEAST WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE FORECAST COMPLETELY DRIES OUT THROUGH THE MID AND EVEN LATE
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
WELL NORTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA WITH THE MID-
SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WHEN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT PRESENT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION
WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE MORE SLOWLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING
THIS PROCESS FURTHER WITH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN HOW STRONG THE FORECAST RIDGING WILL BE. LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG AT MKL/TUP/JBR OVERNIGHT ANTICIPATED TO PRODUCE TEMPORARY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 4-6 KTS AFTER 01/15Z THEN BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 02/01Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 010858
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
358 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

CURRENTLY...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN FAVORED AREAS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM
1/4SM TO 3SM AT MKL. THE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL SOLAR HEATING
BEGINS TO ERODE THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHEAR OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT THROUGH SURFACE
OBS...BUT A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY DOES STILL EXIST. FOR THIS
REASON...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS. THESE WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARMER
AS WELL...WITH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. POINTS NORTHEAST WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE FORECAST COMPLETELY DRIES OUT THROUGH THE MID AND EVEN LATE
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
WELL NORTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA WITH THE MID-
SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WHEN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT PRESENT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION
WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE MORE SLOWLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING
THIS PROCESS FURTHER WITH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN HOW STRONG THE FORECAST RIDGING WILL BE. LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG AT MKL/TUP/JBR OVERNIGHT ANTICIPATED TO PRODUCE TEMPORARY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 4-6 KTS AFTER 01/15Z THEN BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 02/01Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 010858
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
358 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

HOT WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE MID-SOUTH THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH
ONLY LIMITED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...

CURRENTLY...PATCHY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN FAVORED AREAS OF
THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY WITH VISIBILITIES RANGING ANYWHERE FROM
1/4SM TO 3SM AT MKL. THE FOG WILL PERSIST UNTIL SOLAR HEATING
BEGINS TO ERODE THE SURFACE INVERSION.

ON TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO
SHEAR OUT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SEVERAL SMALLER-SCALE
CIRCULATIONS WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...BUT THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO DETECT THROUGH SURFACE
OBS...BUT A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY DOES STILL EXIST. FOR THIS
REASON...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN ARKANSAS. THESE WILL BE MORE
NUISANCE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARMER
AS WELL...WITH AREAS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY REACHING
THE LOW 90S. POINTS NORTHEAST WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

THE FORECAST COMPLETELY DRIES OUT THROUGH THE MID AND EVEN LATE
PORTIONS OF THIS WEEK. ALOFT...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
SIGNIFICANTLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO STRONG TROUGHING DIGGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE DEVELOPS
WELL NORTH INTO THE HUDSON BAY REGION OF CANADA WITH THE MID-
SOUTH SQUARELY UNDER ITS INFLUENCE. THIS IS A STRONG SIGNAL FOR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON WHEN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE BY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. AT PRESENT...AM LEANING TOWARD THE SOLUTION
WHICH BREAKS DOWN THE RIDGE MORE SLOWLY. MODELS HAVE BEEN DELAYING
THIS PROCESS FURTHER WITH CONSECUTIVE MODEL RUNS WHICH MAKES SENSE
GIVEN HOW STRONG THE FORECAST RIDGING WILL BE. LIMITED CHANCES FOR
PRECIP WILL EXIST THROUGH MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG AT MKL/TUP/JBR OVERNIGHT ANTICIPATED TO PRODUCE TEMPORARY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 4-6 KTS AFTER 01/15Z THEN BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 02/01Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 010426
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1126 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 711 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING DOWN NICELY. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK...JUST UPDATED TO REMOVE THE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOR IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
LATE TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

CURRENTLY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH ARKANSAS
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING INVOF THIS FEATURE. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90.

WORK WEEK...METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER IS COMING TO AN END BUT SUMMER
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS
WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE GFS AND NAM
KEEP A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT IT
SOUTH TOWARD MEXICO WITH INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THAT SAME FEATURE EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EITHER
WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.
BLENDED TEMPS BETWEEN THE HOTTER GFS AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY WEEK THOUGH IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WORKS OUT THERE COULD BE SOME MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MS AFTER MID WEEK.

WEEKEND...MODELS SORT OF FLIP THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS MOVES A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IN FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF EXHIBITS MORE
UPPER RIDGING. WILL CARRY ONLY SMALL POPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
BETWEEN THE COOLER GFS AND THE WARMER ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND MONDAY BOTH MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND SUMMER CONTINUING.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG AT MKL/TUP/JBR OVERNIGHT ANTICIPATED TO PRODUCE TEMPORARY
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 4-6 KTS AFTER 01/15Z THEN BECOME LIGHT
AFTER 02/01Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 010011
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
711 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLING DOWN NICELY. FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK...JUST UPDATED TO REMOVE THE ISOLATED PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON AND ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOR IN NORTH MISSISSIPPI NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

CURRENTLY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH ARKANSAS
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING INVOF THIS FEATURE. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90.

WORK WEEK...METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER IS COMING TO AN END BUT SUMMER
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS
WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE GFS AND NAM
KEEP A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT IT
SOUTH TOWARD MEXICO WITH INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THAT SAME FEATURE EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EITHER
WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.
BLENDED TEMPS BETWEEN THE HOTTER GFS AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY WEEK THOUGH IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WORKS OUT THERE COULD BE SOME MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MS AFTER MID WEEK.

WEEKEND...MODELS SORT OF FLIP THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS MOVES A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IN FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF EXHIBITS MORE
UPPER RIDGING. WILL CARRY ONLY SMALL POPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
BETWEEN THE COOLER GFS AND THE WARMER ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND MONDAY BOTH MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND SUMMER CONTINUING.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AT MKL/TUP AND PERHAPS JBR
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 4-6 KTS
AFTER 01/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 312248
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
548 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH ARKANSAS
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING INVOF THIS FEATURE. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90.

WORK WEEK...METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER IS COMING TO AN END BUT SUMMER
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS
WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE GFS AND NAM
KEEP A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT IT
SOUTH TOWARD MEXICO WITH INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THAT SAME FEATURE EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EITHER
WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.
BLENDED TEMPS BETWEEN THE HOTTER GFS AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY WEEK THOUGH IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WORKS OUT THERE COULD BE SOME MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MS AFTER MID WEEK.

WEEKEND...MODELS SORT OF FLIP THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS MOVES A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IN FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF EXHIBITS MORE
UPPER RIDGING. WILL CARRY ONLY SMALL POPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
BETWEEN THE COOLER GFS AND THE WARMER ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND MONDAY BOTH MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND SUMMER CONTINUING.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AT MKL/TUP AND PERHAPS JBR
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 4-6 KTS
AFTER 01/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 312248
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
548 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH ARKANSAS
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING INVOF THIS FEATURE. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90.

WORK WEEK...METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER IS COMING TO AN END BUT SUMMER
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS
WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE GFS AND NAM
KEEP A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT IT
SOUTH TOWARD MEXICO WITH INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THAT SAME FEATURE EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EITHER
WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.
BLENDED TEMPS BETWEEN THE HOTTER GFS AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY WEEK THOUGH IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WORKS OUT THERE COULD BE SOME MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MS AFTER MID WEEK.

WEEKEND...MODELS SORT OF FLIP THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS MOVES A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IN FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF EXHIBITS MORE
UPPER RIDGING. WILL CARRY ONLY SMALL POPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
BETWEEN THE COOLER GFS AND THE WARMER ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND MONDAY BOTH MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND SUMMER CONTINUING.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AT MKL/TUP AND PERHAPS JBR
OVERNIGHT PRODUCING TEMPORARY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST WINDS BETWEEN 4-6 KTS
AFTER 01/15Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311950
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
250 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH ARKANSAS
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING INVOF THIS FEATURE. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90.

WORK WEEK...METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER IS COMING TO AN END BUT SUMMER
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS
WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE GFS AND NAM
KEEP A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT IT
SOUTH TOWARD MEXICO WITH INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THAT SAME FEATURE EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EITHER
WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.
BLENDED TEMPS BETWEEN THE HOTTER GFS AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY WEEK THOUGH IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WORKS OUT THERE COULD BE SOME MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MS AFTER MID WEEK.

WEEKEND...MODELS SORT OF FLIP THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS MOVES A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IN FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF EXHIBITS MORE
UPPER RIDGING. WILL CARRY ONLY SMALL POPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
BETWEEN THE COOLER GFS AND THE WARMER ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND MONDAY BOTH MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND SUMMER CONTINUING.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR FOR MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF IFR/MVFR VSBY FROM FOG EXPECTED AT MKL AND TUP RESPECTIVELY.
CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311950
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
250 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH ARKANSAS
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING INVOF THIS FEATURE. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90.

WORK WEEK...METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER IS COMING TO AN END BUT SUMMER
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS
WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE GFS AND NAM
KEEP A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT IT
SOUTH TOWARD MEXICO WITH INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THAT SAME FEATURE EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EITHER
WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.
BLENDED TEMPS BETWEEN THE HOTTER GFS AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY WEEK THOUGH IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WORKS OUT THERE COULD BE SOME MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MS AFTER MID WEEK.

WEEKEND...MODELS SORT OF FLIP THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS MOVES A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IN FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF EXHIBITS MORE
UPPER RIDGING. WILL CARRY ONLY SMALL POPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
BETWEEN THE COOLER GFS AND THE WARMER ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND MONDAY BOTH MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND SUMMER CONTINUING.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR FOR MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF IFR/MVFR VSBY FROM FOG EXPECTED AT MKL AND TUP RESPECTIVELY.
CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 311950
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
250 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. A MID
LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH ARKANSAS
INTO EASTERN TEXAS. ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING INVOF THIS FEATURE. TEMPS ARE IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90.

WORK WEEK...METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER IS COMING TO AN END BUT SUMMER
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. ONLY WEAK SYSTEMS
WILL BE IMPACTING THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE GFS AND NAM
KEEP A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY DRIFT IT
SOUTH TOWARD MEXICO WITH INCREASED RIDGING OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
MEANWHILE THE ECMWF MOVES THAT SAME FEATURE EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY THE END OF THE WEEK. EITHER
WAY WE ARE LOOKING AT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEK.
BLENDED TEMPS BETWEEN THE HOTTER GFS AND THE SLIGHTLY COOLER ECMWF
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY WEEK THOUGH IF THE
ECMWF SOLUTION WORKS OUT THERE COULD BE SOME MORE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MS AFTER MID WEEK.

WEEKEND...MODELS SORT OF FLIP THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS MOVES A WEAK
UPPER TROUGH IN FROM THE EAST. MEANWHILE THE ECMWF EXHIBITS MORE
UPPER RIDGING. WILL CARRY ONLY SMALL POPS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO BLEND
BETWEEN THE COOLER GFS AND THE WARMER ECMWF FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEYOND MONDAY BOTH MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE AREA AND SUMMER CONTINUING.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR FOR MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF IFR/MVFR VSBY FROM FOG EXPECTED AT MKL AND TUP RESPECTIVELY.
CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311728
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1228 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER COMES TO AN END. NO WORRIES THOUGH...SUMMER
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THIS
FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE DELTA FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWARD.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL FEEL
LIKE SUMMER WITH HOT AFTERNOONS.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CAUSE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. A SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LOW
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AR
TODAY. INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE MS RIVER CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHERE THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ACROSS EASTERN TX AND
WESTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AR...NORTH MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.

MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST DIFFERENTLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE LOW LOSING INFLUENCE OVER MIDSOUTH WEATHER WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MOSTLY
FREE CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND
MILD NIGHTS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR FOR MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF IFR/MVFR VSBY FROM FOG EXPECTED AT MKL AND TUP RESPECTIVELY.
CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 311728
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1228 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1048 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER COMES TO AN END. NO WORRIES THOUGH...SUMMER
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THIS
FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE DELTA FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWARD.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL FEEL
LIKE SUMMER WITH HOT AFTERNOONS.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CAUSE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. A SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LOW
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AR
TODAY. INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE MS RIVER CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHERE THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ACROSS EASTERN TX AND
WESTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AR...NORTH MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.

MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST DIFFERENTLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE LOW LOSING INFLUENCE OVER MIDSOUTH WEATHER WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MOSTLY
FREE CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND
MILD NIGHTS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR FOR MOST OF THE SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF IFR/MVFR VSBY FROM FOG EXPECTED AT MKL AND TUP RESPECTIVELY.
CALM TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311548
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1048 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER COMES TO AN END. NO WORRIES THOUGH...SUMMER
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THIS
FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE DELTA FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWARD.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL FEEL
LIKE SUMMER WITH HOT AFTERNOONS.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CAUSE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. A SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LOW
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AR
TODAY. INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE MS RIVER CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHERE THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ACROSS EASTERN TX AND
WESTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AR...NORTH MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.

MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST DIFFERENTLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE LOW LOSING INFLUENCE OVER MIDSOUTH WEATHER WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MOSTLY
FREE CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND
MILD NIGHTS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MAIN TAF CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR MKL. PERIOD IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VISBYS BELOW 1SM
AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 311548
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1048 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER COMES TO AN END. NO WORRIES THOUGH...SUMMER
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THIS
FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE DELTA FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWARD.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL FEEL
LIKE SUMMER WITH HOT AFTERNOONS.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CAUSE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. A SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LOW
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AR
TODAY. INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE MS RIVER CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHERE THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ACROSS EASTERN TX AND
WESTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AR...NORTH MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.

MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST DIFFERENTLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE LOW LOSING INFLUENCE OVER MIDSOUTH WEATHER WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MOSTLY
FREE CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND
MILD NIGHTS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MAIN TAF CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR MKL. PERIOD IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VISBYS BELOW 1SM
AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 311548
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1048 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING AS
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER COMES TO AN END. NO WORRIES THOUGH...SUMMER
LIKE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS. A WEAK
MID LEVEL SHEAR AXIS STRETCHES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO ARKANSAS
THIS MORNING. EXPECT ISOLD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INVOF THIS
FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S NORTH
TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE DELTA FROM MEMPHIS SOUTHWARD.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL FEEL
LIKE SUMMER WITH HOT AFTERNOONS.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CAUSE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. A SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LOW
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AR
TODAY. INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE MS RIVER CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHERE THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ACROSS EASTERN TX AND
WESTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AR...NORTH MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.

MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST DIFFERENTLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE LOW LOSING INFLUENCE OVER MIDSOUTH WEATHER WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MOSTLY
FREE CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND
MILD NIGHTS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MAIN TAF CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR MKL. PERIOD IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VISBYS BELOW 1SM
AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311114
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
614 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL FEEL
LIKE SUMMER WITH HOT AFTERNOONS.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CAUSE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. A SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LOW
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AR
TODAY. INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE MS RIVER CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHERE THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ACROSS EASTERN TX AND
WESTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AR...NORTH MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.

MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST DIFFERENTLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE LOW LOSING INFLUENCE OVER MIDSOUTH WEATHER WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MOSTLY
FREE CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND
MILD NIGHTS.

JCL

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MAIN TAF CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR MKL. PERIOD IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VISBYS BELOW 1SM
AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 311114
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
614 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL FEEL
LIKE SUMMER WITH HOT AFTERNOONS.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CAUSE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. A SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LOW
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AR
TODAY. INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE MS RIVER CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHERE THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ACROSS EASTERN TX AND
WESTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AR...NORTH MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.

MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST DIFFERENTLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE LOW LOSING INFLUENCE OVER MIDSOUTH WEATHER WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MOSTLY
FREE CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND
MILD NIGHTS.

JCL

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MAIN TAF CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR MKL. PERIOD IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VISBYS BELOW 1SM
AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311114
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
614 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL FEEL
LIKE SUMMER WITH HOT AFTERNOONS.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CAUSE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. A SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LOW
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AR
TODAY. INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE MS RIVER CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHERE THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ACROSS EASTERN TX AND
WESTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AR...NORTH MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.

MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST DIFFERENTLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE LOW LOSING INFLUENCE OVER MIDSOUTH WEATHER WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MOSTLY
FREE CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND
MILD NIGHTS.

JCL

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

MAIN TAF CONCERN THIS MORNING IS THE PATCHY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED
NEAR MKL. PERIOD IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH VISBYS BELOW 1SM
AT TIMES. THIS SHOULD LIFT BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 310824
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL FEEL
LIKE SUMMER WITH HOT AFTERNOONS.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CAUSE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. A SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LOW
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AR
TODAY. INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE MS RIVER CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHERE THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ACROSS EASTERN TX AND
WESTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AR...NORTH MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.

MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST DIFFERENTLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE LOW LOSING INFLUENCE OVER MIDSOUTH WEATHER WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MOSTLY
FREE CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND
MILD NIGHTS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED. BR/FG LOOKS MORE LIKELY
TONIGHT AT BOTH MKL AND TUP DUE TO INCREASED GROUND MOISTURE. IFR
CIGS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP AT TUP. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 310824
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL FEEL
LIKE SUMMER WITH HOT AFTERNOONS.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CAUSE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. A SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LOW
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AR
TODAY. INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE MS RIVER CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHERE THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ACROSS EASTERN TX AND
WESTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AR...NORTH MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.

MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST DIFFERENTLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE LOW LOSING INFLUENCE OVER MIDSOUTH WEATHER WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MOSTLY
FREE CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND
MILD NIGHTS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED. BR/FG LOOKS MORE LIKELY
TONIGHT AT BOTH MKL AND TUP DUE TO INCREASED GROUND MOISTURE. IFR
CIGS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP AT TUP. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 310824
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
324 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS WEEK INTO AT LEAST THE
FIRST PART OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH IT WILL STILL FEEL
LIKE SUMMER WITH HOT AFTERNOONS.

EARLY THIS MORNING...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
WITH PATCHY FOG. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 60S TO LOWER
70S.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
WILL CAUSE A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TODAY.
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE CAN BE EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE EAST. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH. A SUBTLE WEAK UPPER LOW
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER AR
TODAY. INDICATED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEST OF THE MS RIVER CLOSER TO THE UPPER TROUGH AND WHERE THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL NOT BE AS STRONG. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING
ISOLATED CONVECTION IN THIS AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLY WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR NORMAL READINGS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL
CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM CLIMBING TO NEAR
OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
READINGS MAY TOP THE 100 DEGREE MARK IN SOME LOCATIONS BY
WEDNESDAY. FORTUNATELY...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT BE TOO BAD
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP TO ACROSS EASTERN TX AND
WESTERN LA BY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS FORECAST TO PUSH ENOUGH MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TO CAUSE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AR...NORTH MS AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF WEST TN.

MODELS HANDLE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR SOUTHWEST DIFFERENTLY
TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. NEVERTHELESS...THE ECMWF AND GFS BOTH
INDICATE THE LOW LOSING INFLUENCE OVER MIDSOUTH WEATHER WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE MOSTLY
FREE CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH HOT AFTERNOONS AND
MILD NIGHTS.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED. BR/FG LOOKS MORE LIKELY
TONIGHT AT BOTH MKL AND TUP DUE TO INCREASED GROUND MOISTURE. IFR
CIGS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP AT TUP. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5KT TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS MONDAY.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 310422
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1122 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 856 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING DEPICT A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEAR LAKE ERIE BACK THROUGH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO TEXAS AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM CDT ARE IN
THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST
HOUR HAVE SHOWN A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WILL MAKE SOME AJUSTMENTS TO RAIN
CHANCES AND ANY OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

A BROAD UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER TROF. EXPECT A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THUS WILL LEAVE 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING OVER THE REST
OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DRY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST...DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HUMID. IN ADDITION...HEAT
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED. BR/FG LOOKS MORE LIKELY
TONIGHT AT BOTH MKL AND TUP DUE TO INCREASED GROUND MOISTURE. IFR
CIGS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP AT TUP. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 310156
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
856 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING DEPICT A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEAR LAKE ERIE BACK THROUGH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO TEXAS AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM CDT ARE IN
THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST
HOUR HAVE SHOWN A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WILL MAKE SOME AJUSTMENTS TO RAIN
CHANCES AND ANY OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

A BROAD UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER TROF. EXPECT A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THUS WILL LEAVE 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING OVER THE REST
OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DRY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST...DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HUMID. IN ADDITION...HEAT
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MKL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD WANE AFTER TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM
CDT ARE IN THE UNSET. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VIS DUE TO
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. BR/FG LOOKS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT AT BOT MKL AND TUP DUE
TO INCREASED GROUND MOISTURE. IFR CIGS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP AT
TUP. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND THUNDERSTORMS BUT GENERALLY FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 310156
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
856 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING DEPICT A
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM NEAR LAKE ERIE BACK THROUGH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND INTO TEXAS AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
CENTERED NEAR HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS. TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM CDT ARE IN
THE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. WSR-88D RADAR TRENDS OVER THE PAST
HOUR HAVE SHOWN A SUBSTANTIAL DECREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. WILL MAKE SOME AJUSTMENTS TO RAIN
CHANCES AND ANY OTHER ELEMENTS AS NEEDED TO ACCOUNT FOR SHORT TERM
TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST OVERALL IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATED GRIDS WILL BE AVAILABLE SHORTLY.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

A BROAD UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER TROF. EXPECT A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THUS WILL LEAVE 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING OVER THE REST
OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DRY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST...DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HUMID. IN ADDITION...HEAT
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MKL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD WANE AFTER TEMPERATURES AS OF 8 PM
CDT ARE IN THE UNSET. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND MVFR VIS DUE TO
HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. BR/FG LOOKS MORE LIKELY TONIGHT AT BOT MKL AND TUP DUE
TO INCREASED GROUND MOISTURE. IFR CIGS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP AT
TUP. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND THUNDERSTORMS BUT GENERALLY FROM THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 5KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 302324
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
624 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

A BROAD UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER TROF. EXPECT A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THUS WILL LEAVE 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING OVER THE REST
OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DRY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST...DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HUMID. IN ADDITION...HEAT
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MKL FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE SHOULD WANE AFTER SUNSET. LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS AND MVFR VIS DUE TO HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. BR/FG LOOKS MORE LIKELY
TONIGHT AT BOT MKL AND TUP DUE TO INCREASED GROUND MOISTURE. IFR
CIGS MAY ALSO BRIEFLY DEVELOP AT TUP. WINDS VARIABLE AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS BUT GENERALLY FROM THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST LESS THAN
5KT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 301949
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
249 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER TROF. EXPECT A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THUS WILL LEAVE 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING OVER THE REST
OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DRY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST...DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HUMID. IN ADDITION...HEAT
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS PREVAIL AT KTUP BUT THESE WILL LIFT SHORTLY. OTRW EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLD TO SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES AT KTUP/KMKL SO ADDED
VCTS THERE THROUGH 31/01Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT KMKL LATE. WINDS WILL
BE SE/SSE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KTS...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 301949
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
249 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A BROAD UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL DRIFT WEST OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
EAST. CURRENTLY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE MIDSOUTH AS DAYTIME HEATING IS INTERACTING WITH
THE UPPER TROF. EXPECT A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THUS WILL LEAVE 20/30 POPS ACROSS THE AREA.

CAN/T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING OVER THE REST
OF THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DRY PERIOD AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WITH SURFACE WINDS REMAINING OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST...DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HUMID. IN ADDITION...HEAT
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE AREA WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS PREVAIL AT KTUP BUT THESE WILL LIFT SHORTLY. OTRW EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLD TO SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES AT KTUP/KMKL SO ADDED
VCTS THERE THROUGH 31/01Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT KMKL LATE. WINDS WILL
BE SE/SSE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KTS...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 301806
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
106 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...

A BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. THE
TROF MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK HEATING. CURRENT RADAR IMAGES SHOW MOST
OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL ONLY REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM
NORTHWEST TN INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST AR.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH.
ONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. SECONDLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MONDAY...KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...SO SUMMER HEAT IS NOT DONE
YET AS THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS PREVAIL AT KTUP BUT THESE WILL LIFT SHORTLY. OTRW EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLD TO SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES AT KTUP/KMKL SO ADDED
VCTS THERE THROUGH 31/01Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT KMKL LATE. WINDS WILL
BE SE/SSE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KTS...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 301806
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
106 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...

A BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. THE
TROF MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK HEATING. CURRENT RADAR IMAGES SHOW MOST
OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL ONLY REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM
NORTHWEST TN INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST AR.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH.
ONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. SECONDLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MONDAY...KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...SO SUMMER HEAT IS NOT DONE
YET AS THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS PREVAIL AT KTUP BUT THESE WILL LIFT SHORTLY. OTRW EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLD TO SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES AT KTUP/KMKL SO ADDED
VCTS THERE THROUGH 31/01Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT KMKL LATE. WINDS WILL
BE SE/SSE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KTS...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 301806
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
106 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1107 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...

A BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. THE
TROF MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK HEATING. CURRENT RADAR IMAGES SHOW MOST
OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL ONLY REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM
NORTHWEST TN INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST AR.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH.
ONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. SECONDLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MONDAY...KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...SO SUMMER HEAT IS NOT DONE
YET AS THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

MVFR CIGS PREVAIL AT KTUP BUT THESE WILL LIFT SHORTLY. OTRW EXPECT
MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLD TO SCT SHRAS/TSRAS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH BEST CHANCES AT KTUP/KMKL SO ADDED
VCTS THERE THROUGH 31/01Z. OVERNIGHT EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDS WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE AT KMKL LATE. WINDS WILL
BE SE/SSE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-8 KTS...DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 301607
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1107 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

A BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. THE
TROF MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK HEATING. CURRENT RADAR IMAGES SHOW MOST
OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL ONLY REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM
NORTHWEST TN INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST AR.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH.
ONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. SECONDLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MONDAY...KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...SO SUMMER HEAT IS NOT DONE
YET AS THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR MEM. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE KEEPING
CLOSE WATCH. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH NEAR OR BEFORE 14Z. SOME
LOWER CIGS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED AT TUP THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM SSE BETWEEN 5 AND
10 MPH.

TVT

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 301607
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1107 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

A BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. THE
TROF MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK HEATING. CURRENT RADAR IMAGES SHOW MOST
OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL ONLY REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM
NORTHWEST TN INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST AR.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH.
ONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. SECONDLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MONDAY...KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...SO SUMMER HEAT IS NOT DONE
YET AS THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR MEM. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE KEEPING
CLOSE WATCH. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH NEAR OR BEFORE 14Z. SOME
LOWER CIGS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED AT TUP THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM SSE BETWEEN 5 AND
10 MPH.

TVT

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 301607
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1107 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

A BROAD UPPER TROF REMAINS OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING. THE
TROF MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
THIS AFTERNOON AROUND PEAK HEATING. CURRENT RADAR IMAGES SHOW MOST
OF THE EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED. CURRENT FORECAST
LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE...WILL ONLY REMOVE MORNING WORDING.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM
NORTHWEST TN INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST AR.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH.
ONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. SECONDLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MONDAY...KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...SO SUMMER HEAT IS NOT DONE
YET AS THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR MEM. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE KEEPING
CLOSE WATCH. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH NEAR OR BEFORE 14Z. SOME
LOWER CIGS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED AT TUP THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM SSE BETWEEN 5 AND
10 MPH.

TVT

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 301129
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM
NORTHWEST TN INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST AR.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH.
ONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. SECONDLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MONDAY...KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...SO SUMMER HEAT IS NOT DONE
YET AS THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

JCL

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR MEM. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE KEEPING
CLOSE WATCH. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH NEAR OR BEFORE 14Z. SOME
LOWER CIGS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED AT TUP THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM SSE BETWEEN 5 AND
10 MPH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 301129
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM
NORTHWEST TN INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST AR.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH.
ONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. SECONDLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MONDAY...KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...SO SUMMER HEAT IS NOT DONE
YET AS THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

JCL

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR MEM. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE KEEPING
CLOSE WATCH. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH NEAR OR BEFORE 14Z. SOME
LOWER CIGS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED AT TUP THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM SSE BETWEEN 5 AND
10 MPH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 301129
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM
NORTHWEST TN INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST AR.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH.
ONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. SECONDLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MONDAY...KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...SO SUMMER HEAT IS NOT DONE
YET AS THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

JCL

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR MEM. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE KEEPING
CLOSE WATCH. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH NEAR OR BEFORE 14Z. SOME
LOWER CIGS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED AT TUP THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM SSE BETWEEN 5 AND
10 MPH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 301129
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
629 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM
NORTHWEST TN INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST AR.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH.
ONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. SECONDLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MONDAY...KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...SO SUMMER HEAT IS NOT DONE
YET AS THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

JCL

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING NEAR MEM. FOR
NOW...HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHILE KEEPING
CLOSE WATCH. EXPECT THESE TO DIMINISH NEAR OR BEFORE 14Z. SOME
LOWER CIGS HAVE ALSO BEEN OBSERVED AT TUP THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOULD LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT
ALL SITES THEREAFTER. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM SSE BETWEEN 5 AND
10 MPH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 300835
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM
NORTHWEST TN INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST AR.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH.
ONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. SECONDLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MONDAY...KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...SO SUMMER HEAT IS NOT DONE
YET AS THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY 3-4SM BR IS POSSIBLE AT TUP TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH MKL FROM THE EAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...EXPECTED COVERAGE IS MINIMAL BUT WILL INCLUDE VCSH
FOR NOW.   SOUTH WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...ONLY INCREASING
TO 5-10 TOMORROW.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 300835
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS MORNING...MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVERED MUCH OF
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MIDDLE 60S TO MIDDLE
70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND. A FEW SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING FROM
NORTHWEST TN INTO THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST AR.

FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...TWO SYSTEMS WILL AFFECT THE MIDSOUTH.
ONE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE MIDSOUTH
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY LEAVING A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION. SECONDLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
ALONG THE ALABAMA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL
AL THEN INTO NORTHERN GA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS ALONG WITH INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED BUT
HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING...ALONG WITH THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR MONDAY...KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS AS IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDSOUTH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
BE LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE MIDSOUTH WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INCREASES TO THE EAST. DID MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST AR AND THE MO BOOTHEEL
CLOSER TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINCE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS
INDICATE THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY TUESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
FROM THE EAST SUPPRESSING MOST IF NOT ALL CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...SO SUMMER HEAT IS NOT DONE
YET AS THE MONTH OF SEPTEMBER BEGINS.

MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE SOME FROM THE SOUTH
TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE WORK WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
DEVELOPS OVER EAST TX AND WESTERN LA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY MAINLY FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
SEASONABLY HOT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY 3-4SM BR IS POSSIBLE AT TUP TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH MKL FROM THE EAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...EXPECTED COVERAGE IS MINIMAL BUT WILL INCLUDE VCSH
FOR NOW.   SOUTH WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...ONLY INCREASING
TO 5-10 TOMORROW.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 300438
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BACK THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF
8 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND AN EASTERLY
TROPICAL WAVE OVER ALABAMA WILL CONVERGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE TO A BROAD UPPER TROF
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH OVER AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH MAJOR
DIFFERENCES OCCURRING BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE FACT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THE ECMWF KEEPS REMNANTS OF ERIKA WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AND BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
WHICH EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS THAT
DRIFTS EASTWARD CONVERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THUS THE MODEL HAS DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THINK THE ECMWF MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AND HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE WITH ERIKA. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL TRY
TO GO WITH A BLEND WITH 20/30 POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS BUT
COULD BE WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY 3-4SM BR IS POSSIBLE AT TUP TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH MKL FROM THE EAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...EXPECTED COVERAGE IS MINIMAL BUT WILL INCLUDE VCSH
FOR NOW.   SOUTH WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...ONLY INCREASING
TO 5-10 TOMORROW.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 300438
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BACK THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF
8 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND AN EASTERLY
TROPICAL WAVE OVER ALABAMA WILL CONVERGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE TO A BROAD UPPER TROF
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH OVER AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH MAJOR
DIFFERENCES OCCURRING BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE FACT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THE ECMWF KEEPS REMNANTS OF ERIKA WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AND BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
WHICH EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS THAT
DRIFTS EASTWARD CONVERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THUS THE MODEL HAS DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THINK THE ECMWF MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AND HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE WITH ERIKA. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL TRY
TO GO WITH A BLEND WITH 20/30 POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS BUT
COULD BE WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY 3-4SM BR IS POSSIBLE AT TUP TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH MKL FROM THE EAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...EXPECTED COVERAGE IS MINIMAL BUT WILL INCLUDE VCSH
FOR NOW.   SOUTH WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...ONLY INCREASING
TO 5-10 TOMORROW.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 300438
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BACK THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF
8 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND AN EASTERLY
TROPICAL WAVE OVER ALABAMA WILL CONVERGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE TO A BROAD UPPER TROF
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH OVER AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH MAJOR
DIFFERENCES OCCURRING BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE FACT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THE ECMWF KEEPS REMNANTS OF ERIKA WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AND BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
WHICH EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS THAT
DRIFTS EASTWARD CONVERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THUS THE MODEL HAS DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THINK THE ECMWF MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AND HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE WITH ERIKA. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL TRY
TO GO WITH A BLEND WITH 20/30 POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS BUT
COULD BE WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY 3-4SM BR IS POSSIBLE AT TUP TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH MKL FROM THE EAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...EXPECTED COVERAGE IS MINIMAL BUT WILL INCLUDE VCSH
FOR NOW.   SOUTH WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...ONLY INCREASING
TO 5-10 TOMORROW.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 300438
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1138 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BACK THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF
8 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL.

CJC

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND AN EASTERLY
TROPICAL WAVE OVER ALABAMA WILL CONVERGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE TO A BROAD UPPER TROF
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH OVER AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH MAJOR
DIFFERENCES OCCURRING BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE FACT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THE ECMWF KEEPS REMNANTS OF ERIKA WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AND BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
WHICH EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS THAT
DRIFTS EASTWARD CONVERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THUS THE MODEL HAS DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THINK THE ECMWF MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AND HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE WITH ERIKA. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL TRY
TO GO WITH A BLEND WITH 20/30 POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS BUT
COULD BE WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...06Z TAF CYCLE

PATCHY 3-4SM BR IS POSSIBLE AT TUP TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH MKL FROM THE EAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...EXPECTED COVERAGE IS MINIMAL BUT WILL INCLUDE VCSH
FOR NOW.   SOUTH WINDS 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...ONLY INCREASING
TO 5-10 TOMORROW.

30

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 300155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
855 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BACK THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF
8 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND AN EASTERLY
TROPICAL WAVE OVER ALABAMA WILL CONVERGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE TO A BROAD UPPER TROF
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH OVER AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH MAJOR
DIFFERENCES OCCURRING BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE FACT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THE ECMWF KEEPS REMNANTS OF ERIKA WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AND BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
WHICH EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS THAT
DRIFTS EASTWARD CONVERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THUS THE MODEL HAS DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THINK THE ECMWF MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AND HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE WITH ERIKA. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL TRY
TO GO WITH A BLEND WITH 20/30 POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS BUT
COULD BE WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH MKL FROM THE EAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IN HOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...ONLY INCREASING SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW.

30
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 300155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
855 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BACK THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF
8 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND AN EASTERLY
TROPICAL WAVE OVER ALABAMA WILL CONVERGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE TO A BROAD UPPER TROF
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH OVER AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH MAJOR
DIFFERENCES OCCURRING BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE FACT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THE ECMWF KEEPS REMNANTS OF ERIKA WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AND BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
WHICH EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS THAT
DRIFTS EASTWARD CONVERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THUS THE MODEL HAS DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THINK THE ECMWF MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AND HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE WITH ERIKA. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL TRY
TO GO WITH A BLEND WITH 20/30 POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS BUT
COULD BE WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH MKL FROM THE EAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IN HOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...ONLY INCREASING SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW.

30
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 300155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
855 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BACK THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF
8 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND AN EASTERLY
TROPICAL WAVE OVER ALABAMA WILL CONVERGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE TO A BROAD UPPER TROF
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH OVER AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH MAJOR
DIFFERENCES OCCURRING BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE FACT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THE ECMWF KEEPS REMNANTS OF ERIKA WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AND BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
WHICH EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS THAT
DRIFTS EASTWARD CONVERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THUS THE MODEL HAS DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THINK THE ECMWF MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AND HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE WITH ERIKA. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL TRY
TO GO WITH A BLEND WITH 20/30 POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS BUT
COULD BE WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH MKL FROM THE EAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IN HOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...ONLY INCREASING SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW.

30
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 300155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
855 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS THIS EVENING PLACE AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...BACK THROUGH MISSOURI AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. AS OF
8 PM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ARE IN THE 70S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPERATURES TO ACCOUNT FOR LATEST SHORT TERM TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE OVERALL.

CJC

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND AN EASTERLY
TROPICAL WAVE OVER ALABAMA WILL CONVERGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE TO A BROAD UPPER TROF
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH OVER AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH MAJOR
DIFFERENCES OCCURRING BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE FACT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THE ECMWF KEEPS REMNANTS OF ERIKA WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AND BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
WHICH EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS THAT
DRIFTS EASTWARD CONVERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THUS THE MODEL HAS DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THINK THE ECMWF MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AND HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE WITH ERIKA. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL TRY
TO GO WITH A BLEND WITH 20/30 POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS BUT
COULD BE WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH MKL FROM THE EAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IN HOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...ONLY INCREASING SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW.

30
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 292334
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND AN EASTERLY
TROPICAL WAVE OVER ALABAMA WILL CONVERGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE TO A BROAD UPPER TROF
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH OVER AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH MAJOR
DIFFERENCES OCCURRING BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE FACT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THE ECMWF KEEPS REMNANTS OF ERIKA WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AND BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
WHICH EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS THAT
DRIFTS EASTWARD CONVERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THUS THE MODEL HAS DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THINK THE ECMWF MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AND HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE WITH ERIKA. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL TRY
TO GO WITH A BLEND WITH 20/30 POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS BUT
COULD BE WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH MKL FROM THE EAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IN HOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...ONLY INCREASING SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 292334
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
634 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

AN UPPER TROF CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN ARKANSAS AND AN EASTERLY
TROPICAL WAVE OVER ALABAMA WILL CONVERGE OVER THE MIDSOUTH TONIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL EVOLVE TO A BROAD UPPER TROF
THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDSOUTH OVER AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AS A
RESULT WITH BEST CHANCES OCCURRING ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER IN
WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI.

BEYOND MONDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS WITH MAJOR
DIFFERENCES OCCURRING BY THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS MAINLY
DUE TO THE FACT THE MODELS ARE HAVING A HARD TIME DEALING WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THE ECMWF KEEPS REMNANTS OF ERIKA WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MIDSOUTH AND BUILDS THE UPPER RIDGE BACK INTO THE
AREA. MEANWHILE...THE GFS KEEPS THE BROAD UPPER TROF OVER THE AREA
WHICH EVENTUALLY CUTS OFF TO A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER TEXAS THAT
DRIFTS EASTWARD CONVERGING WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA BY THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THUS THE MODEL HAS DECENT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THINK THE ECMWF MAY HAVE THE BEST HANDLE AS IT HAS BEEN CONSISTENT
AND HAS HAD THE BEST HANDLE WITH ERIKA. HOWEVER FOR NOW WILL TRY
TO GO WITH A BLEND WITH 20/30 POPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
CWA BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FOR HIGHS BUT
COULD BE WARMER BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK IF THE ECMWF IS CORRECT.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY APPROACH MKL FROM THE EAST TOMORROW
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECTED COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IN HOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IT IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS OVERNIGHT...ONLY INCREASING SLIGHTLY
TOMORROW.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




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