Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KMEG 262351
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
651 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. ISOLD-SCT AFTN
TSRAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY SO INTRODUCED A VCTS AT
ALL SITES AT 27/21Z. SSW WINDS 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 262351
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
651 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME LOW CLOUDS
POSSIBLE EARLY WEDNESDAY AM ESPECIALLY NEAR KTUP. ISOLD-SCT AFTN
TSRAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY SO INTRODUCED A VCTS AT
ALL SITES AT 27/21Z. SSW WINDS 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT INCREASING TO
ABOUT 10 KTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 262034
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR IFR STRATUS AT TUP AND MKL TOMORROW MORNING.
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH VCSH NEAR TUP LATE. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FEEL THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE 8KT THRESHOLD FOR FEDEX OPS AT MEMPHIS THROUGH 27/08Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 262034
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR IFR STRATUS AT TUP AND MKL TOMORROW MORNING.
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH VCSH NEAR TUP LATE. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FEEL THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE 8KT THRESHOLD FOR FEDEX OPS AT MEMPHIS THROUGH 27/08Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 262034
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
334 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SEVERAL FACTORS HAVE WORKED AGAINST REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 80S...THERE IS A LACK OF
ANY SURFACE BASED FOCAL POINT...OR TRIGGER...AND WE DO NOT HAVE
THE DYNAMIC SUPPORT WE HAD YESTERDAY INTO LAST NIGHT.
THERMODYNAMICALLY...WE STILL HAVE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 DEGREES...HELPING TO BOOST INSTABILITY...BUT EVEN THAT
HASN`T PROVEN ENOUGH TO RESULT IN CONVECTION.

OVERNIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...PROVIDING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD MORNING. THE
SHORTWAVE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW MORNING...AND
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BUILD IN IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL TEMPORARILY
LIMIT SHOWERS...BUT ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S ONCE AGAIN...SO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE.

THURSDAY...A BROADER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT OVER THE PLAINS
STATES SETTING UP SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS AT LEAST ONE SMALL DISTURBANCE MOVING THOROUGH THE MEAN
SOUTHWEST FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY BE OUT HIGHEST CHANCE
OF ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
NOTHING TO GET WORRIED ABOUT. FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WE WILL
SEE A SUMMERTIME-TYPE PATTERN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING EVERY PERIOD...MOST LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OUR WARMEST DAY LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY
WHEN AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 80S AREA WIDE.

LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE PLAINS INCREASING OUR RAIN CHANCES AND BRINGING
TEMPERATURES BACK DONN 2-4 DEGREES.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR IFR STRATUS AT TUP AND MKL TOMORROW MORNING.
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH VCSH NEAR TUP LATE. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FEEL THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE 8KT THRESHOLD FOR FEDEX OPS AT MEMPHIS THROUGH 27/08Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 261721
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAYETTE
COUNTY AS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ALABAMA. ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STABLE...WITH ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FARTHER EAST IN WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SHOW LI`S AS LOW AS -2C AND CAPE OF UP TO 250J/KG. SOME
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SLASHED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONED DOWN THE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ONLY ISOLATED. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR IFR STRATUS AT TUP AND MKL TOMORROW MORNING.
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH VCSH NEAR TUP LATE. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FEEL THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE 8KT THRESHOLD FOR FEDEX OPS AT MEMPHIS THROUGH 27/08Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261721
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

DISCUSSION...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAYETTE
COUNTY AS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ALABAMA. ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STABLE...WITH ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FARTHER EAST IN WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SHOW LI`S AS LOW AS -2C AND CAPE OF UP TO 250J/KG. SOME
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SLASHED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONED DOWN THE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ONLY ISOLATED. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS

MVFR/VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR IFR STRATUS AT TUP AND MKL TOMORROW MORNING.
SITES SHOULD BE PRECIPITATION FREE WITH VCSH NEAR TUP LATE. GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE A CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. FEEL THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR JUST
ABOVE THE 8KT THRESHOLD FOR FEDEX OPS AT MEMPHIS THROUGH 27/08Z.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 261528
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1028 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAYETTE
COUNTY AS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ALABAMA. ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STABLE...WITH ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FARTHER EAST IN WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SHOW LI`S AS LOW AS -2C AND CAPE OF UP TO 250J/KG. SOME
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SLASHED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONED DOWN THE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ONLY ISOLATED. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

SHRA SHOULD EXIT MKL/TUP AREAS THROUGH 15Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
EFFECTIVELY RAISES CLOUD BASES OR SCATTERS OUT THE LOWER LAYERS.

HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OVERLYING A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH LIMITED TSRA/SHRA
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE MORE LIMITED
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND GREATER IFR POTENTIAL TOWARD 27/12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261528
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1028 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAYETTE
COUNTY AS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ALABAMA. ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STABLE...WITH ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FARTHER EAST IN WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SHOW LI`S AS LOW AS -2C AND CAPE OF UP TO 250J/KG. SOME
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SLASHED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONED DOWN THE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ONLY ISOLATED. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

SHRA SHOULD EXIT MKL/TUP AREAS THROUGH 15Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
EFFECTIVELY RAISES CLOUD BASES OR SCATTERS OUT THE LOWER LAYERS.

HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OVERLYING A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH LIMITED TSRA/SHRA
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE MORE LIMITED
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND GREATER IFR POTENTIAL TOWARD 27/12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 261528
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1028 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THERE ARE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER FAYETTE
COUNTY AS THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL MOVES INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE AND
ALABAMA. ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...THE ATMOSPHERE
IS STABLE...WITH ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE FARTHER EAST IN WEST
TENNESSEE AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR IS NEAR THE
ALABAMA STATE LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER WHERE LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SHOW LI`S AS LOW AS -2C AND CAPE OF UP TO 250J/KG. SOME
ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE...BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT
THINK WE WILL SEE ANY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. SLASHED POPS
CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND TONED DOWN THE
THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ONLY ISOLATED. HIGHS SHOULD CLIMB TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAFS

SHRA SHOULD EXIT MKL/TUP AREAS THROUGH 15Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
EFFECTIVELY RAISES CLOUD BASES OR SCATTERS OUT THE LOWER LAYERS.

HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OVERLYING A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH LIMITED TSRA/SHRA
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE MORE LIMITED
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND GREATER IFR POTENTIAL TOWARD 27/12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 261149 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

SHRA SHOULD EXIT MKL/TUP AREAS THROUGH 15Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
EFFECTIVELY RAISES CLOUD BASES OR SCATTERS OUT THE LOWER LAYERS.

HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OVERLYING A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH LIMITED TSRA/SHRA
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE MORE LIMITED
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND GREATER IFR POTENTIAL TOWARD 27/12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261149 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS

SHRA SHOULD EXIT MKL/TUP AREAS THROUGH 15Z. MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL IN THE WAKE OF THE SHOWERS...UNTIL DAYTIME HEATING
EFFECTIVELY RAISES CLOUD BASES OR SCATTERS OUT THE LOWER LAYERS.

HUMID AIRMASS REMAINS TONIGHT...WITH A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
OVERLYING A MOIST LOW LEVEL INVERSION. WITH LIMITED TSRA/SHRA
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAY BE MORE LIMITED
THAN IN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR STRONGER RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND GREATER IFR POTENTIAL TOWARD 27/12Z.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 260926
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAKENING LINE OF SHRAS/TSRAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY AN AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 260926
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
426 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE/WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES
INDICATE A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM /MCS/ OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN OF TEXAS...LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. THIS MCS HAS
BEEN WEAKENING AND IS SHOWING SIGNS OF TRANSITIONING INTO A
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX AS BETTER FORCING IS GRADUALLY MOVING
AWAY FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN UNIMPRESSIVE ACROSS THE MID SOUTH WITH NO
THUNDER BEING REPORTED AND A CONTINUED WEAKENING TREND. TEMPERATURES
AS OF 4 AM CDT ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER.

SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH LAST NIGHT/S MCS OVER LOCATIONS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING. SHORT TERM MODELS HAD DIFFICULTY HANDLING THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND SUBSEQUENTLY REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TODAY
AS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. A POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON COINCIDENT WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES BEING REACHED IF
THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER FROM THE STABILIZING EFFECTS OF THE
OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. THE THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND
SUBSEQUENT FLASH FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED. CONSEQUENTLY...DECIDED
TO CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT WILL BE
LOCALIZED AT BEST. A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL EXIST FOR A
STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AND LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
STILL ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES.

MODELS INDICATE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THIS WEEK AS A SERIES OF MID LEVEL SHORTWAVES
MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CHANCE POPS SEEM
REASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS FORCING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
DAYTIME INSTABILITY AS OVERALL FORCING FROM SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL
REMAIN SUBTLE AT BEST. ALSO...A CONDITIONAL THREAT MAY STILL
EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO PERHAPS ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE AS THREATS.

LONG TERM MODELS INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FOR THE
LATTER HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...PROVIDING A BETTER FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK WILL BE MAINLY IN THE
80S WITH LOWS IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAKENING LINE OF SHRAS/TSRAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY AN AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 260428
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS BY 10 PM. THE LINE
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A GUST FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LINE. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BEST TIMING WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WILL
ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAKENING LINE OF SHRAS/TSRAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY AN AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 260428
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS BY 10 PM. THE LINE
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A GUST FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LINE. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BEST TIMING WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WILL
ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAKENING LINE OF SHRAS/TSRAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY AN AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 260428
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1128 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS BY 10 PM. THE LINE
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A GUST FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LINE. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BEST TIMING WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WILL
ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A WEAKENING LINE OF SHRAS/TSRAS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE MIDSOUTH.
THIS LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY AN AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE
TO MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 10-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
HIGHER GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 260204
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
904 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS BY 10 PM. THE LINE
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A GUST FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LINE. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BEST TIMING WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WILL
ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

QUIET EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW POP UP SHRAS/TSRAS BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED. SSE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. A WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL
LINE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN
AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 260204
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
904 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS BY 10 PM. THE LINE
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A GUST FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LINE. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BEST TIMING WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WILL
ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

QUIET EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW POP UP SHRAS/TSRAS BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED. SSE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. A WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL
LINE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN
AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 260204
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
904 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...

A SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS ARKANSAS THIS EVENING.
THE LINE WILL BE MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS BY 10 PM. THE LINE
IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS A GUST FRONT IS
STARTING TO MOVE OUT AHEAD OF AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
LINE. STILL CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. BEST TIMING WILL BEFORE MIDNIGHT.
FLASH FLOODING MAY BE THE BIGGER ISSUES ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT. FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK...WILL
ONLY UPDATE TO REMOVE EVENING WORDING.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

QUIET EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW POP UP SHRAS/TSRAS BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED. SSE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. A WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL
LINE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN
AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 252345
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

QUIET EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW POP UP SHRAS/TSRAS BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED. SSE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. A WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL
LINE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN
AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 252345
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

QUIET EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW POP UP SHRAS/TSRAS BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED. SSE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. A WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL
LINE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN
AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 252345
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
645 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

QUIET EARLY THIS EVENING. A FEW POP UP SHRAS/TSRAS BUT COVERAGE
WILL BE LIMITED. SSE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. A WELL ORGANIZED SQUALL
LINE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY AN
AREA OF RAIN EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CONDS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR OVERNIGHT. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
TO VFR ON TUESDAY. SOUTH WINDS AT 12-15 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER
GUSTS ON TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 252026
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE ORGANIZED GROUP OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT.

WER

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 252026
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
326 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WE REMAIN IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN DESPITE A CURRENT TEMPORARY
LULL IN ACTIVITY. THE ATMOSPHERE HAS RECOVERED NICELY ALONG AND
WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION FARTHER
EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH. LAPS INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS FEATURE CAPES AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG IN EAST
ARKANSAS...WITH LI`S AS LOW AS -4.5C. BY SUNSET...EXPECT TO SEE
SIMILAR VALUES ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. WELL UPSTREAM OVER
NORTH TEXAS...A BOWING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SHIFTING TO THE
EAST. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTH AS IT MOVES INTO THE MIDSOUTH AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED FROM NORTH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S. AS A RESULT...INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY REMAIN
ELEVATED...LIKELY AS HIGH AS IT IS THIS EVENING. AS THE BOW
ACCELERATES TO THE EAST...STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE LOOKS
POSSIBLE...IF NOT LIKELY...ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE...EMBEDDED IN THE LINE...MOST LIKELY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ANY KINKS IN THE LINE. ADDITIONALLY...ALTHOUGH
NOT HIGHLY EXPECTED...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOW POSING A HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN...AND MAY BECOME THE
PRIMARY CONCERN BY THIS TIME TOMORROW. SOME OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND WEST TENNESSEE HAS
ALREADY RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES OF RAIN. ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...LIKELY RESULTING IN AT LEAST LOCALIZED
FLOODING. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...IT WOULD BE A GOOD
IDEA TO TAKE ACTION NOW TO ENSURE YOUR SAFETY. EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE MIDSOUTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...RAIN CHANCES AS WELL
AS THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN ENHANCED...ALTHOUGH WITH THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...THEY SHOULD NOT BE AS ORGANIZED. EXPECT
SUMMERTIME TYPE PULSE STORMS DRIVEN MOSTLY BY DAYTIME HEATING. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...AND PW`S WILL REMAIN
AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO RAIN WILL BE HEAVY WHERE IT FALLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL TREND WARMER THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS HIGHS
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE UPPER 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SUCH A MOIST ATMOSPHERE...AND RAIN EXPECTED...WILL UNDERCUT THOSE
NUMBERS SLIGHTLY AND KEEP READINGS IN THE MIDDLE 80S.

DON`T SEE MUCH CHANCE IN THE PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES MAY TURN SLIGHTLY COOLER AS HEIGHTS FALL A BIT...BUT
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S. LATE
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ANOTHER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. RAINFALL CHANCES AND THE THREAT OF
SEVERE STORMS COULD INCREASE ONCE AGAIN.

30

&&

.AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE ORGANIZED GROUP OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT.

WER

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-
     TISHOMINGO-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-HARDIN-
     HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-MADISON-MCNAIRY-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251815
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
115 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ITS BEEN A BUSY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THINGS ARE
FINALLY SETTLING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE BREAK MAY PROVE TO
BE SHORT LIVED AS WE ARE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE REGION.
EAST ARKANSAS ALREADY HAS CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000K/KG WITH LI`S
BETWEEN -2 AND -4C. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY
HELPING US TO DESTABILIZE EVEN FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60 AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...DYNAMIC ENERGY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EVEN IF WE DID NOT HAVE
THE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DRY OUT TEMPORARILY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND DECENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREAS.

ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF RUNS SUGGESTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL FALLS IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL DAILY MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

LATEST PREFERABLE MODEL OUTPUT WITH EARLIER TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RISING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING EXPECT 0-1 SRH TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 200-300 M^2/S^2 AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SPREAD
QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
AGAIN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF
REALIZED WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY AS FOCUSED LIFT DIMINISHES AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WITH A CONTINUED TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION.
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BUT WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS. ANY STORM WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

JLH

AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE ORGANIZED GROUP OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT.

WER

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251815
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
115 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1050 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ITS BEEN A BUSY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THINGS ARE
FINALLY SETTLING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE BREAK MAY PROVE TO
BE SHORT LIVED AS WE ARE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE REGION.
EAST ARKANSAS ALREADY HAS CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000K/KG WITH LI`S
BETWEEN -2 AND -4C. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY
HELPING US TO DESTABILIZE EVEN FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60 AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...DYNAMIC ENERGY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EVEN IF WE DID NOT HAVE
THE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DRY OUT TEMPORARILY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND DECENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREAS.

ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF RUNS SUGGESTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL FALLS IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL DAILY MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

LATEST PREFERABLE MODEL OUTPUT WITH EARLIER TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RISING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING EXPECT 0-1 SRH TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 200-300 M^2/S^2 AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SPREAD
QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
AGAIN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF
REALIZED WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY AS FOCUSED LIFT DIMINISHES AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WITH A CONTINUED TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION.
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BUT WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS. ANY STORM WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

JLH

AVIATION...18Z TAF CYCLE

SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD, PICK UP
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON. A MORE ORGANIZED GROUP OF SEVERE STORMS
WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT.

WER

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251550
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1050 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ITS BEEN A BUSY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THINGS ARE
FINALLY SETTLING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE BREAK MAY PROVE TO
BE SHORT LIVED AS WE ARE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE REGION.
EAST ARKANSAS ALREADY HAS CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000K/KG WITH LI`S
BETWEEN -2 AND -4C. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY
HELPING US TO DESTABILIZE EVEN FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60 AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...DYNAMIC ENERGY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EVEN IF WE DID NOT HAVE
THE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DRY OUT TEMPORARILY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND DECENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREAS.

ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF RUNS SUGGESTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL FALLS IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL DAILY MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

LATEST PREFERABLE MODEL OUTPUT WITH EARLIER TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RISING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING EXPECT 0-1 SRH TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 200-300 M^2/S^2 AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SPREAD
QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
AGAIN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF
REALIZED WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY AS FOCUSED LIFT DIMINISHES AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WITH A CONTINUED TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION.
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BUT WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS. ANY STORM WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING EAST OF THE MS RIVER. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TONIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHRAS/TSRAS
TO AFFECT MEM/JBR BETWEEN 01-05Z AND MEM/TUP BETWEEN 06-10Z ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. S WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

CJC


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251550
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1050 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE. ITS BEEN A BUSY MONDAY MORNING...BUT THINGS ARE
FINALLY SETTLING DOWN ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. THE BREAK MAY PROVE TO
BE SHORT LIVED AS WE ARE RAPIDLY DESTABILIZING ACROSS THE REGION.
EAST ARKANSAS ALREADY HAS CAPES IN EXCESS OF 1000K/KG WITH LI`S
BETWEEN -2 AND -4C. WE SHOULD SEE AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING TODAY
HELPING US TO DESTABILIZE EVEN FURTHER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER
WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60 AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE...DYNAMIC ENERGY MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO RESULT IN ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EVEN IF WE DID NOT HAVE
THE THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT.

&&

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DRY OUT TEMPORARILY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND DECENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREAS.

ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF RUNS SUGGESTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL FALLS IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL DAILY MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

LATEST PREFERABLE MODEL OUTPUT WITH EARLIER TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RISING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING EXPECT 0-1 SRH TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 200-300 M^2/S^2 AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SPREAD
QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
AGAIN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF
REALIZED WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY AS FOCUSED LIFT DIMINISHES AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WITH A CONTINUED TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION.
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BUT WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS. ANY STORM WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...12Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING EAST OF THE MS RIVER. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TONIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHRAS/TSRAS
TO AFFECT MEM/JBR BETWEEN 01-05Z AND MEM/TUP BETWEEN 06-10Z ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. S WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

CJC


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251144
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DRY OUT TEMPORARILY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND DECENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREAS.

ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF RUNS SUGGESTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL FALLS IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL DAILY MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

LATEST PREFERABLE MODEL OUTPUT WITH EARLIER TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RISING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING EXPECT 0-1 SRH TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 200-300 M^2/S^2 AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SPREAD
QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
AGAIN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF
REALIZED WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY AS FOCUSED LIFT DIMINISHES AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WITH A CONTINUED TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION.
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BUT WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS. ANY STORM WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING EAST OF THE MS RIVER. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TONIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHRAS/TSRAS
TO AFFECT MEM/JBR BETWEEN 01-05Z AND MEM/TUP BETWEEN 06-10Z ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. S WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251144
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DRY OUT TEMPORARILY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND DECENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREAS.

ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF RUNS SUGGESTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL FALLS IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL DAILY MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

LATEST PREFERABLE MODEL OUTPUT WITH EARLIER TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RISING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING EXPECT 0-1 SRH TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 200-300 M^2/S^2 AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SPREAD
QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
AGAIN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF
REALIZED WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY AS FOCUSED LIFT DIMINISHES AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WITH A CONTINUED TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION.
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BUT WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS. ANY STORM WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING EAST OF THE MS RIVER. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TONIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHRAS/TSRAS
TO AFFECT MEM/JBR BETWEEN 01-05Z AND MEM/TUP BETWEEN 06-10Z ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. S WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251144
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DRY OUT TEMPORARILY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND DECENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREAS.

ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF RUNS SUGGESTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL FALLS IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL DAILY MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

LATEST PREFERABLE MODEL OUTPUT WITH EARLIER TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RISING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING EXPECT 0-1 SRH TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 200-300 M^2/S^2 AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SPREAD
QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
AGAIN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF
REALIZED WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY AS FOCUSED LIFT DIMINISHES AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WITH A CONTINUED TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION.
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BUT WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS. ANY STORM WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING EAST OF THE MS RIVER. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TONIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHRAS/TSRAS
TO AFFECT MEM/JBR BETWEEN 01-05Z AND MEM/TUP BETWEEN 06-10Z ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. S WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251144
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
644 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DRY OUT TEMPORARILY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND DECENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREAS.

ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF RUNS SUGGESTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL FALLS IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL DAILY MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

LATEST PREFERABLE MODEL OUTPUT WITH EARLIER TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RISING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING EXPECT 0-1 SRH TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 200-300 M^2/S^2 AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SPREAD
QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
AGAIN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF
REALIZED WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY AS FOCUSED LIFT DIMINISHES AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WITH A CONTINUED TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION.
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BUT WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS. ANY STORM WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS
MORNING EAST OF THE MS RIVER. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY TONIGHT. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A COMPLEX OF SHRAS/TSRAS
TO AFFECT MEM/JBR BETWEEN 01-05Z AND MEM/TUP BETWEEN 06-10Z ALONG
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. S WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 250953
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
453 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY
EAST INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING. A LEAD SHORTWAVE
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE MID SOUTH EARLY
THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AREAS
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS
WILL DRY OUT TEMPORARILY LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
AS A PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL DRY SLOT ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD
AND DECENT SURFACE HEATING SHOULD OCCUR AND HELP TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE AGAIN BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 80 DEGREES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS TO THE
MIDDLE 80S ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA AREAS.

ANOTHER DISTINCT SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHWEST TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL EJECT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING. THERE
REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AMONG THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
WITH THE GFS AND NAM/WRF RUNS SUGGESTING AN EARLIER ARRIVAL
COMPARED TO THE LATEST ECMWF. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT AN
EARLIER ARRIVAL FALLS IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL DAILY MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONTINUITY ALONG WITH THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION HRRR OUTPUT.
THIS SHOULD SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WHICH
SHOULD EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A LINE AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING.

LATEST PREFERABLE MODEL OUTPUT WITH EARLIER TIMING SUGGESTS THAT
THE ATMOSPHERE WILL AGAIN DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH SBCAPE VALUES
RISING TO BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG BY 00Z TUESDAY. IN ADDITION...AS
THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THIS EVENING EXPECT 0-1 SRH TO INCREASE
TO BETWEEN 200-300 M^2/S^2 AS LOW LEVEL WINDS REMAIN BACKED TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH A VEERING PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
ON THE ORDER OF 40-50 KTS WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN AREAS DURING THE
EVENING HOURS AND PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP QUICKLY BY MID AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND SPREAD
QUICKLY NORTHEAST AS A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM (QLCS) INTO
AREAS WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
AGAIN FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS WILL AGAIN
BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AMOUNTS BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES. THERE MAY
BE A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS. THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IF
REALIZED WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. THEREFORE...HAVE
CONTINUED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE MID
SOUTH THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY
MORNING...THE AREA WILL BE LEFT UNDER AN AREA OF BROAD UPPER
TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW TO OUR
NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY BUT SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNORGANIZED THROUGH THE DAY AS FOCUSED LIFT DIMINISHES AND DEEP
LAYER WIND FIELDS WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED LATE IN THE
WEEK BUT WITH A CONTINUED TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION.
A FEW PULSE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS AS STRONG
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BUT WITH WEAK WIND FIELDS. ANY STORM WILL BE
SLOW MOVING AND COULD ALSO PRODUCE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST BY EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE MID SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION AND
INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH HUMID WEATHER CONTINUING THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS SHRAS AND ISOLATED TSRAS WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. KTUP AND KMKL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING LOWER
CONDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THOUGH INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR
CIGS AT KJBR AND KMEM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO KJBR AND KMEM
MONDAY EVENING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR BENTON TN-
     CARROLL-CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-
     MADISON-MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250435
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS PUT A KABASH ON THE SEVERE THREAT BUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE MOVED UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
BEGIN NOW AND COVER THE ENTIRE CWA. ALREADY SEEING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VIRTUALLY TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA
WHERE CONVECTION OCCURRED THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT REGIONAL RADAR
MORE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS THIS AREA SPREADING OVER AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. TORNADO WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ON MONDAY...AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WILL BE ANOTHER
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, IT ALSO MEANS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL BE ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OUT COUNTIES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A THIRD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS
THE FIRST TWO SO THERE WILL BE A LESSER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE PULLS OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE.

ON THURSDAY...WE HAVE WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WITH
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE SEE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE
GONE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

BY FRIDAY...THE FIRST IN ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS SHRAS AND ISOLATED TSRAS WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. KTUP AND KMKL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING LOWER
CONDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THOUGH INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR
CIGS AT KJBR AND KMEM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO KJBR AND KMEM
MONDAY EVENING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 250435
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS PUT A KABASH ON THE SEVERE THREAT BUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE MOVED UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
BEGIN NOW AND COVER THE ENTIRE CWA. ALREADY SEEING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VIRTUALLY TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA
WHERE CONVECTION OCCURRED THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT REGIONAL RADAR
MORE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS THIS AREA SPREADING OVER AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. TORNADO WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ON MONDAY...AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WILL BE ANOTHER
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, IT ALSO MEANS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL BE ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OUT COUNTIES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A THIRD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS
THE FIRST TWO SO THERE WILL BE A LESSER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE PULLS OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE.

ON THURSDAY...WE HAVE WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WITH
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE SEE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE
GONE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

BY FRIDAY...THE FIRST IN ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS SHRAS AND ISOLATED TSRAS WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. KTUP AND KMKL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING LOWER
CONDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THOUGH INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR
CIGS AT KJBR AND KMEM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO KJBR AND KMEM
MONDAY EVENING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250435
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS PUT A KABASH ON THE SEVERE THREAT BUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE MOVED UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
BEGIN NOW AND COVER THE ENTIRE CWA. ALREADY SEEING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VIRTUALLY TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA
WHERE CONVECTION OCCURRED THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT REGIONAL RADAR
MORE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS THIS AREA SPREADING OVER AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. TORNADO WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ON MONDAY...AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WILL BE ANOTHER
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, IT ALSO MEANS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL BE ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OUT COUNTIES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A THIRD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS
THE FIRST TWO SO THERE WILL BE A LESSER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE PULLS OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE.

ON THURSDAY...WE HAVE WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WITH
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE SEE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE
GONE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

BY FRIDAY...THE FIRST IN ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS SHRAS AND ISOLATED TSRAS WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. KTUP AND KMKL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING LOWER
CONDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THOUGH INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR
CIGS AT KJBR AND KMEM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO KJBR AND KMEM
MONDAY EVENING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250435
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1135 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1016 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

UPDATE...

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS PUT A KABASH ON THE SEVERE THREAT BUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE MOVED UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
BEGIN NOW AND COVER THE ENTIRE CWA. ALREADY SEEING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VIRTUALLY TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA
WHERE CONVECTION OCCURRED THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT REGIONAL RADAR
MORE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS THIS AREA SPREADING OVER AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. TORNADO WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ON MONDAY...AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WILL BE ANOTHER
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, IT ALSO MEANS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL BE ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OUT COUNTIES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A THIRD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS
THE FIRST TWO SO THERE WILL BE A LESSER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE PULLS OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE.

ON THURSDAY...WE HAVE WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WITH
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE SEE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE
GONE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

BY FRIDAY...THE FIRST IN ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

NUMEROUS SHRAS AND ISOLATED TSRAS WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE
MIDSOUTH...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE MS RIVER THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. KTUP AND KMKL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING LOWER
CONDS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THOUGH INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR
CIGS AT KJBR AND KMEM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KTS...WITH HIGHER GUSTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO KJBR AND KMEM
MONDAY EVENING.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 250316
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1016 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS PUT A KABASH ON THE SEVERE THREAT BUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE MOVED UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
BEGIN NOW AND COVER THE ENTIRE CWA. ALREADY SEEING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VIRTUALLY TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA
WHERE CONVECTION OCCURRED THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT REGIONAL RADAR
MORE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS THIS AREA SPREADING OVER AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. TORNADO WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ON MONDAY...AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WILL BE ANOTHER
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, IT ALSO MEANS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL BE ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OUT COUNTIES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A THIRD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS
THE FIRST TWO SO THERE WILL BE A LESSER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE PULLS OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE.

ON THURSDAY...WE HAVE WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WITH
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE SEE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE
GONE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

BY FRIDAY...THE FIRST IN ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&.



&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250316
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1016 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...

LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING HAS PUT A KABASH ON THE SEVERE THREAT BUT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING. HAVE MOVED UP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
BEGIN NOW AND COVER THE ENTIRE CWA. ALREADY SEEING ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS VIRTUALLY TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREA
WHERE CONVECTION OCCURRED THIS EVENING. LOOKING AT REGIONAL RADAR
MORE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH AND THE LATEST HRRR
SHOWS THIS AREA SPREADING OVER AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. TORNADO WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ON MONDAY...AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WILL BE ANOTHER
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, IT ALSO MEANS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL BE ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OUT COUNTIES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A THIRD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS
THE FIRST TWO SO THERE WILL BE A LESSER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE PULLS OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE.

ON THURSDAY...WE HAVE WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WITH
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE SEE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE
GONE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

BY FRIDAY...THE FIRST IN ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&.



&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CALHOUN-CHICKASAW-COAHOMA-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-
     MARSHALL-MONROE-PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-QUITMAN-
     TALLAHATCHIE-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-UNION-YALOBUSHA.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR BENTON TN-CARROLL-
     CHESTER-CROCKETT-DECATUR-DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HARDEMAN-
     HARDIN-HAYWOOD-HENDERSON-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     MCNAIRY-OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 241956
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
256 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. TORNADO WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ON MONDAY...AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WILL BE ANOTHER
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, IT ALSO MEANS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL BE ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OUT COUNTIES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A THIRD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS
THE FIRST TWO SO THERE WILL BE A LESSER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE PULLS OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE.

ON THURSDAY...WE HAVE WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WITH
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE SEE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE
GONE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

BY FRIDAY...THE FIRST IN ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TMR. WINDS ARE TO BE
STRONG AND GUSTY, BUT GUSTS SHOULD CEASE TONIGHT AND TMR MORNING.
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A FEATURE WORKING IN WESTERN AR HAVE POPPED UP
AND DIED OUT ALL MORNING. AFTER RELEASE OF 18Z PACKAGE...SHOWERS
DEVELOPED IN NORTHER MISSISSIPPI AND ARE MOVING NORTH. MAY HAVE TO
PUT IN SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING IS FOR TS`S IN WESTERN AR
TO ARRIVE JBR/MEM EARLY EVENING GO ON EAST AND BE IN MKL/TUP VCNTY
AFTER 9 THIS EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP DURING STORMS.

WER

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 241956
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
256 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST FROM
NORTHEAST TEXAS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. TORNADO WATCHES
ARE IN EFFECT FOR AREAS SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

ON MONDAY...AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THE CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SOME DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOSE TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S.

ON MONDAY NIGHT...A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL MEAN THAT WILL BE ANOTHER
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, IT ALSO MEANS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WILL BE ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OUT COUNTIES WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL
FINALLY PULL OUT OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT...A THIRD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS
AND INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS
THE FIRST TWO SO THERE WILL BE A LESSER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS SHORT WAVE PULLS OF THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DECREASE.

ON THURSDAY...WE HAVE WEATHER MORE TYPICAL OF EARLY SUMMER WITH
SOME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WE SEE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE
GONE BY THURSDAY EVENING.

BY FRIDAY...THE FIRST IN ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVES
WILL APPROACH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA FOR FRIDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TMR. WINDS ARE TO BE
STRONG AND GUSTY, BUT GUSTS SHOULD CEASE TONIGHT AND TMR MORNING.
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A FEATURE WORKING IN WESTERN AR HAVE POPPED UP
AND DIED OUT ALL MORNING. AFTER RELEASE OF 18Z PACKAGE...SHOWERS
DEVELOPED IN NORTHER MISSISSIPPI AND ARE MOVING NORTH. MAY HAVE TO
PUT IN SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING IS FOR TS`S IN WESTERN AR
TO ARRIVE JBR/MEM EARLY EVENING GO ON EAST AND BE IN MKL/TUP VCNTY
AFTER 9 THIS EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP DURING STORMS.

WER

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-
     MISSISSIPPI-PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 241802
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
102 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO REACH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES APPROACHES FROM TEXAS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK ON
THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS SURGE TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500
J/KG IN THESE AREAS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED
AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE WAVE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 300 M2/S2. DECENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW LCL
HEIGHTS...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND CONVECTION BECOMES REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT MAY
TEND TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AND RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BE LOOKED AT CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TO DETERMINE THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE THE FLOOD THREAT AREA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MID SOUTH BECOMES POSITIONED BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY LEVELS AGAIN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL
MESO-LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ARKLATEX AND LIFTING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. LOW AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS SHOULD AGAIN STRENGTHEN
MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AND EFFECTS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
UNFOLDS...AGAIN THE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BIGGER THREAT THAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ONLY WORSEN ANY
EXISTING FLOOD CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A THIRD BUT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST
AREA. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER PATTERN TEMPORARILY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK WIND FIELDS BUT
STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING ORGANIZED STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH CONTINUED
HUMID CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

JLH

AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 18Z TMR. WINDS ARE TO BE
STRONG AND GUSTY, BUT GUSTS SHOULD CEASE TONIGHT AND TMR MORNING.
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A FEATURE WORKING IN WESTERN AR HAVE POPPED UP
AND DIED OUT ALL MORNING. AFTER RELEASE OF 18Z PACKAGE...SHOWERS
DEVELOPED IN NORTHER MISSISSIPPI AND ARE MOVING NORTH. MAY HAVE TO
PUT IN SHOWERS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THINKING IS FOR TS`S IN WESTERN AR
TO ARRIVE JBR/MEM EARLY EVENING GO ON EAST AND BE IN MKL/TUP VCNTY
AFTER 9 THIS EVENING. EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP DURING STORMS.

WER

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 241510
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1010 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO REACH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES APPROACHES FROM TEXAS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK ON
THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS SURGE TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500
J/KG IN THESE AREAS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED
AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE WAVE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 300 M2/S2. DECENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW LCL
HEIGHTS...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND CONVECTION BECOMES REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT MAY
TEND TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AND RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BE LOOKED AT CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TO DETERMINE THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE THE FLOOD THREAT AREA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MID SOUTH BECOMES POSITIONED BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY LEVELS AGAIN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL
MESO-LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ARKLATEX AND LIFTING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. LOW AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS SHOULD AGAIN STRENGTHEN
MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AND EFFECTS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
UNFOLDS...AGAIN THE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BIGGER THREAT THAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ONLY WORSEN ANY
EXISTING FLOOD CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A THIRD BUT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST
AREA. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER PATTERN TEMPORARILY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK WIND FIELDS BUT
STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING ORGANIZED STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH CONTINUED
HUMID CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. SE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER S AND INCREASE TO 10-16 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT MEM/JBR BETWEEN 01Z-03Z...MKL
BETWEEN 02Z- 04Z...AND TUP BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 241510
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1010 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO REACH PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND THEY
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF RAIN AT THIS TIME BUT WILL SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE
IN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURES ADJUSTMENTS.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES APPROACHES FROM TEXAS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK ON
THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS SURGE TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500
J/KG IN THESE AREAS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED
AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE WAVE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 300 M2/S2. DECENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW LCL
HEIGHTS...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND CONVECTION BECOMES REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT MAY
TEND TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AND RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BE LOOKED AT CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TO DETERMINE THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE THE FLOOD THREAT AREA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MID SOUTH BECOMES POSITIONED BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY LEVELS AGAIN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL
MESO-LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ARKLATEX AND LIFTING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. LOW AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS SHOULD AGAIN STRENGTHEN
MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AND EFFECTS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
UNFOLDS...AGAIN THE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BIGGER THREAT THAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ONLY WORSEN ANY
EXISTING FLOOD CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A THIRD BUT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST
AREA. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER PATTERN TEMPORARILY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK WIND FIELDS BUT
STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING ORGANIZED STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH CONTINUED
HUMID CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. SE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER S AND INCREASE TO 10-16 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT MEM/JBR BETWEEN 01Z-03Z...MKL
BETWEEN 02Z- 04Z...AND TUP BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 241141
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
641 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES APPROACHES FROM TEXAS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK ON
THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS SURGE TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500
J/KG IN THESE AREAS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED
AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE WAVE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 300 M2/S2. DECENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW LCL
HEIGHTS...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND CONVECTION BECOMES REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT MAY
TEND TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AND RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BE LOOKED AT CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TO DETERMINE THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE THE FLOOD THREAT AREA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MID SOUTH BECOMES POSITIONED BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY LEVELS AGAIN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL
MESO-LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ARKLATEX AND LIFTING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. LOW AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS SHOULD AGAIN STRENGTHEN
MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AND EFFECTS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
UNFOLDS...AGAIN THE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BIGGER THREAT THAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ONLY WORSEN ANY
EXISTING FLOOD CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A THIRD BUT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST
AREA. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER PATTERN TEMPORARILY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK WIND FIELDS BUT
STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING ORGANIZED STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH CONTINUED
HUMID CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. SE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER S AND INCREASE TO 10-16 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT MEM/JBR BETWEEN 01Z-03Z...MKL
BETWEEN 02Z- 04Z...AND TUP BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 241141
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
641 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES APPROACHES FROM TEXAS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK ON
THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS SURGE TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500
J/KG IN THESE AREAS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED
AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE WAVE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 300 M2/S2. DECENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW LCL
HEIGHTS...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND CONVECTION BECOMES REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT MAY
TEND TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AND RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BE LOOKED AT CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TO DETERMINE THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE THE FLOOD THREAT AREA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MID SOUTH BECOMES POSITIONED BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY LEVELS AGAIN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL
MESO-LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ARKLATEX AND LIFTING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. LOW AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS SHOULD AGAIN STRENGTHEN
MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AND EFFECTS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
UNFOLDS...AGAIN THE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BIGGER THREAT THAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ONLY WORSEN ANY
EXISTING FLOOD CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A THIRD BUT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST
AREA. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER PATTERN TEMPORARILY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK WIND FIELDS BUT
STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING ORGANIZED STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH CONTINUED
HUMID CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. SE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER S AND INCREASE TO 10-16 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT MEM/JBR BETWEEN 01Z-03Z...MKL
BETWEEN 02Z- 04Z...AND TUP BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 241141
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
641 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES APPROACHES FROM TEXAS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK ON
THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS SURGE TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500
J/KG IN THESE AREAS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED
AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE WAVE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 300 M2/S2. DECENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW LCL
HEIGHTS...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND CONVECTION BECOMES REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT MAY
TEND TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AND RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BE LOOKED AT CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TO DETERMINE THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE THE FLOOD THREAT AREA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MID SOUTH BECOMES POSITIONED BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY LEVELS AGAIN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL
MESO-LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ARKLATEX AND LIFTING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. LOW AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS SHOULD AGAIN STRENGTHEN
MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AND EFFECTS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
UNFOLDS...AGAIN THE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BIGGER THREAT THAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ONLY WORSEN ANY
EXISTING FLOOD CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A THIRD BUT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST
AREA. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER PATTERN TEMPORARILY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK WIND FIELDS BUT
STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING ORGANIZED STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH CONTINUED
HUMID CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF THE 12Z TAF CYCLE. SE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER S AND INCREASE TO 10-16 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TOWARDS THIS AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES INCREASING ACROSS THE AREA AND A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS AT MEM/JBR BETWEEN 01Z-03Z...MKL
BETWEEN 02Z- 04Z...AND TUP BETWEEN 04Z-06Z.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 240916
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
416 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES APPROACHES FROM TEXAS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK ON
THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS SURGE TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500
J/KG IN THESE AREAS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED
AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE WAVE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 300 M2/S2. DECENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW LCL
HEIGHTS...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND CONVECTION BECOMES REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT MAY
TEND TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AND RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BE LOOKED AT CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TO DETERMINE THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE THE FLOOD THREAT AREA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MID SOUTH BECOMES POSITIONED BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY LEVELS AGAIN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL
MESO-LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ARKLATEX AND LIFTING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. LOW AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS SHOULD AGAIN STRENGTHEN
MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AND EFFECTS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
UNFOLDS...AGAIN THE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BIGGER THREAT THAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ONLY WORSEN ANY
EXISTING FLOOD CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A THIRD BUT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST
AREA. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER PATTERN TEMPORARILY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK WIND FIELDS BUT
STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING ORGANIZED STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH CONTINUED
HUMID CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMEM
AND KJBR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THOSE WILL LIFT NORTH BY
24/14Z WITH VFR AND BREEZY CONDS DURING THE DAY. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THEN VEER SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY EVENING
RESULTING IN SHRAS AND TSRAS AT KJBR AND KMEM BY 25/03Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 240916
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
416 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST TODAY.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE MID SOUTH FOR
THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE IMPULSES APPROACHES FROM TEXAS. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS A LOW LEVEL JET STREAK ON
THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50 KTS DEVELOPS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY LATE
AFTERNOON AS DEWPOINTS SURGE TO NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG AND WEST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SBCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1500-2500
J/KG IN THESE AREAS BETWEEN 21Z-00Z. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED
AS WELL IN RESPONSE TO THE SURFACE WAVE AND DEEP UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE PLAINS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN 0-1 KM STORM RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200 AND 300 M2/S2. DECENT LOW LEVEL
TURNING OF WINDS THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER...LOW LCL
HEIGHTS...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BEGINNING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS FOR AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DIMINISH WITH EASTWARD EXTENT LATER THIS EVENING AS THE SHORTWAVE
LIFTS NORTHEAST AND CONVECTION BECOMES REMOVED FROM THE BETTER
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. IT APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING ALONG AND WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS EVENING. AS CONVECTION DEVELOPS...IT MAY
TEND TO TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREAS AND RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE MID SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS
WILL BE LOOKED AT CLOSELY BY THE DAY SHIFT TO DETERMINE THE AREAL
EXTENT OF THE THE FLOOD THREAT AREA.

THE LEAD SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA LATER TONIGHT
WITH RESIDUAL WEAKENING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRAPED
ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND DIMINISH IN COVERAGE. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A LULL IN WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
MID SOUTH BECOMES POSITIONED BETWEEN SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE AGAIN WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY LEVELS AGAIN DEVELOPING. THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT
UPON MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

BY MONDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IMPULSE SHOULD LIFT
NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A POTENTIAL
MESO-LOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE ARKLATEX AND LIFTING NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT. LOW AND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS SHOULD AGAIN STRENGTHEN
MONDAY NIGHT AS THEY OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SHOULD SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THERE MAY BE MORE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT UPON THE MESOSCALE ENVIRONMENT AND EFFECTS FROM EARLIER
CONVECTION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. IF A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
UNFOLDS...AGAIN THE POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE BIGGER THREAT THAT SHOULD MATERIALIZE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS
HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD OCCUR OVER AREAS THAT ARE EXPECTED TO
RECEIVE HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD ONLY WORSEN ANY
EXISTING FLOOD CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
EXTENDED THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL.

CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A THIRD BUT WEAKER SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE FORECAST
AREA. PLAN TO CONTINUE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN MOST AREAS.

THE UPPER PATTERN TEMPORARILY BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A HUMID TROPICAL AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE.
THIS WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK WIND FIELDS BUT
STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DURING
PEAK HEATING.

ANOTHER STRONGER SHORTWAVE SHOULD LIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
INCREASING ORGANIZED STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE MID
SOUTH. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN SEASONABLY WARM WITH CONTINUED
HUMID CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMEM
AND KJBR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THOSE WILL LIFT NORTH BY
24/14Z WITH VFR AND BREEZY CONDS DURING THE DAY. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THEN VEER SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY EVENING
RESULTING IN SHRAS AND TSRAS AT KJBR AND KMEM BY 25/03Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 240425
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS REMNANT SHOWERS FROM THESE COMPLEXES
MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A GOOD HANDLE. NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING HAS NOW REACHED SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND IS
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. THIS WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

ON SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND REACH
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING AROUND 70
DEGREES.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BUT A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE IT YET
AS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SO THERE WILL BE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY SO
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY WILL SEE WEATHER MORE LIKE SUMMER WITH A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET
UP MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMEM
AND KJBR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THOSE WILL LIFT NORTH BY
24/14Z WITH VFR AND BREEZY CONDS DURING THE DAY. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THEN VEER SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY EVENING
RESULTING IN SHRAS AND TSRAS AT KJBR AND KMEM BY 25/03Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 240425
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1125 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 923 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS REMNANT SHOWERS FROM THESE COMPLEXES
MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A GOOD HANDLE. NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING HAS NOW REACHED SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND IS
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. THIS WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

ON SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND REACH
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING AROUND 70
DEGREES.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BUT A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE IT YET
AS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SO THERE WILL BE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY SO
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY WILL SEE WEATHER MORE LIKE SUMMER WITH A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET
UP MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. A FEW SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMEM
AND KJBR LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THOSE WILL LIFT NORTH BY
24/14Z WITH VFR AND BREEZY CONDS DURING THE DAY. SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THEN VEER SOUTH AND CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY EVENING
RESULTING IN SHRAS AND TSRAS AT KJBR AND KMEM BY 25/03Z.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 240223
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
923 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...

CLOUDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING. THE CLOUDS
ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES OVER OKLAHOMA
AND TEXAS. LATEST HRRR SHOWS REMNANT SHOWERS FROM THESE COMPLEXES
MOVING INTO EASTERN ARKANSAS JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. CURRENT FORECAST
HAS A GOOD HANDLE. NO UPDATES ARE EXPECTED.

KRM

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S.
THE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WHICH WAS MOVING THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS THIS MORNING HAS NOW REACHED SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND IS
OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THROUGH
NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI. THIS WARM FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT AND SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY MAY REACH WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILDER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN THE
LAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS WITH LOWS SUNDAY MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

ON SUNDAY...THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH AND REACH
INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI BY SUNDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS OVER FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY WARM WITH HIGH IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S. BY SUNDAY NIGHT A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION PRODUCING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPERATURES MONDAY MORNING AROUND 70
DEGREES.

ON MONDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION
BRINGING MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PARTS OF EAST ARKANSAS AND A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH MAY BE NEEDED BUT A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO ISSUE IT YET
AS SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO HOW MUCH RAIN IS EXPECTED. WITH
MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE SO THERE WILL BE MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL FINALLY
MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY SO
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THIS PERIOD.

THURSDAY WILL SEE WEATHER MORE LIKE SUMMER WITH A FEW AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL START TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE REGION STARTING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THIS WILL SET
UP MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR THE FORECAST AREA
DURING THIS PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHRAS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMEM LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND AT KJBR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. SE
WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT THEN VEER SOUTH AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

SJM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities