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000
FXUS64 KMEG 020517
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE HAS
HELPED TO FORCE CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO AN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REPRESENTED BY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM...AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF STORMS INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING WHERE THE CURRENT
FORECAST CARRIES LIKELY POPS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION WILL BE
LOW AS OVERALL SHEAR APPEARS QUITE WEAK. THEREFORE STORMS SHOULD
BE PULSE IN NATURE WITH SHORT LIVED SEVERE EPISODES POSSIBLE.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE JBR TERMINAL CURRENTLY.  EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME.  AT THIS TIME...IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH MEM.  AFTER THIS
COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PRECIP TO END THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.  SHOWERS REDEVELOP AFTER 14Z NEAR TUP ON THURSDAY WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE DURING THE MORNING
TOMORROW...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 020517
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE HAS
HELPED TO FORCE CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO AN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REPRESENTED BY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM...AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF STORMS INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING WHERE THE CURRENT
FORECAST CARRIES LIKELY POPS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION WILL BE
LOW AS OVERALL SHEAR APPEARS QUITE WEAK. THEREFORE STORMS SHOULD
BE PULSE IN NATURE WITH SHORT LIVED SEVERE EPISODES POSSIBLE.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE JBR TERMINAL CURRENTLY.  EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME.  AT THIS TIME...IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH MEM.  AFTER THIS
COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PRECIP TO END THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.  SHOWERS REDEVELOP AFTER 14Z NEAR TUP ON THURSDAY WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE DURING THE MORNING
TOMORROW...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 020517
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1217 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE HAS
HELPED TO FORCE CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO AN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REPRESENTED BY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM...AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF STORMS INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING WHERE THE CURRENT
FORECAST CARRIES LIKELY POPS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION WILL BE
LOW AS OVERALL SHEAR APPEARS QUITE WEAK. THEREFORE STORMS SHOULD
BE PULSE IN NATURE WITH SHORT LIVED SEVERE EPISODES POSSIBLE.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING THROUGH
THE JBR TERMINAL CURRENTLY.  EXPECT THIS COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST BUT WEAKEN WITH TIME.  AT THIS TIME...IT IS UNCERTAIN
WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL HOLD TOGETHER THROUGH MEM.  AFTER THIS
COMPLEX MOVES THROUGH...EXPECT PRECIP TO END THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING.  SHOWERS REDEVELOP AFTER 14Z NEAR TUP ON THURSDAY WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE DURING THE MORNING
TOMORROW...LASTING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 020046
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
746 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE HAS
HELPED TO FORCE CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO AN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REPRESENTED BY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM...AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF STORMS INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING WHERE THE CURRENT
FORECAST CARRIES LIKELY POPS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION WILL BE
LOW AS OVERALL SHEAR APPEARS QUITE WEAK. THEREFORE STORMS SHOULD
BE PULSE IN NATURE WITH SHORT LIVED SEVERE EPISODES POSSIBLE.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENTLY...AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST
NORTHEAST OF JBR SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MKL. THIS BAND SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH MKL OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS WITH VCTS LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD. VCTS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM ALL OTHER TAF SITES AT THIS
TIME. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY PICK UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TO ABOVE 10 KTS. A BKN DECK NEAR 5000 FT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 12Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. EXPECT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SO WILL DEFER TO THE 06Z TAFS TO BETTER TIME THAT IF
NECESSARY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 020046
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
746 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO PROGRESS EAST INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS EVENING. THIS WAVE HAS
HELPED TO FORCE CONVECTION ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO AN MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS REPRESENTED BY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BETWEEN
7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM...AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF STORMS INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION LATER THIS EVENING WHERE THE CURRENT
FORECAST CARRIES LIKELY POPS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT WITH LARGE HAIL...BUT OVERALL ORGANIZATION WILL BE
LOW AS OVERALL SHEAR APPEARS QUITE WEAK. THEREFORE STORMS SHOULD
BE PULSE IN NATURE WITH SHORT LIVED SEVERE EPISODES POSSIBLE.

THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS GOOD AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENTLY...AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST
NORTHEAST OF JBR SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MKL. THIS BAND SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH MKL OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS WITH VCTS LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD. VCTS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM ALL OTHER TAF SITES AT THIS
TIME. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY PICK UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TO ABOVE 10 KTS. A BKN DECK NEAR 5000 FT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 12Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. EXPECT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SO WILL DEFER TO THE 06Z TAFS TO BETTER TIME THAT IF
NECESSARY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 012323
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

JCL

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENTLY...AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST
NORTHEAST OF JBR SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MKL. THIS BAND SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH MKL OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS WITH VCTS LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD. VCTS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM ALL OTHER TAF SITES AT THIS
TIME. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY PICK UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TO ABOVE 10 KTS. A BKN DECK NEAR 5000 FT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 12Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. EXPECT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SO WILL DEFER TO THE 06Z TAFS TO BETTER TIME THAT IF
NECESSARY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 012323
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
623 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

JCL

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENTLY...AN ARC OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING JUST
NORTHEAST OF JBR SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MKL. THIS BAND SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH MKL OVER THE NEXT 2 HOURS WITH VCTS LIKELY DURING THIS
PERIOD. VCTS HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM ALL OTHER TAF SITES AT THIS
TIME. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY PICK UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST TO ABOVE 10 KTS. A BKN DECK NEAR 5000 FT WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL. WINDS WILL FURTHER INCREASE
TOMORROW AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER 12Z AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO TIGHTEN. EXPECT GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.
CONFIDENCE IS EXTREMELY LOW AT THIS TIME CONCERNING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SO WILL DEFER TO THE 06Z TAFS TO BETTER TIME THAT IF
NECESSARY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011925
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CURRENTLY AT LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE MVFR CIGS PERSIST.
CIGS AT JBR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN SO
WENT WITH JUST VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE SFC
BASED INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY MORE...AT JBR WENT TEMPO FOR -TSRA
BETWEEN 20-23Z...STARTED VCTS A TAD LATER AT MKL/TUP AND WENT SLIGHTLY
LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY
WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS BROUGHT A
LATER TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA IN AT JBR...AND REINTRODUCED VCTS AT
MEM FOR 06Z LINE.

MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF CIGS IN THE 1000-2000FT RANGE BTN 10-16Z
ON THURSDAY...WITH STILL INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. BROUGHT AT LEAST A TEMPO IN FOR MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT MKL IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. WINDS GUSTS INCREASE TO 20-30KT ACROSS THE AREA BY
18Z ON THURSDAY.

NGU

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011925
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
225 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A WARM FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST AR INTO NORTHEAST MS.
THE FRONT WAS EVIDENT IN THE SURFACE DEW POINTS RANGING FROM 32
DEGREES AT PARIS TN TO 62 DEGREES AT MEMPHIS. SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY WAS INCREASING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT...
RANGING FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES TO THE EAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WAS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST MO AND NORTHWEST AR SPARKING
THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHWEST MO ATTM.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH DURING THE
NEXT SEVEN DAYS WITH FREQUENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG WITH MOSTLY MILD TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH BRIEFLY COOLER
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TO OUR WEST WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT ENCOUNTERING THE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR SOUTH OF THE WARM
FRONT. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR. INCREASED THE POPS SOME FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREATS.

THURSDAY...THE MIDSOUTH WILL BE FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR
WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO AROUND
80 DEGREES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE MIDSOUTH FROM THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. A
WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH FRIDAY AS
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS OCCUR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT TURING TO
STRONG NORTHERLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

COLD AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOWS
SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S.
SUNNY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY WITH A
THREAT OF SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR AS WARMER...MORE MOIST...AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR SPREADS
BACK ACROSS THE REGION. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL INTERACT WITH THE MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO
CAUSE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. BY MID-WEEK...THE
MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE REGION IN REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CURRENTLY AT LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE MVFR CIGS PERSIST.
CIGS AT JBR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN SO
WENT WITH JUST VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE SFC
BASED INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY MORE...AT JBR WENT TEMPO FOR -TSRA
BETWEEN 20-23Z...STARTED VCTS A TAD LATER AT MKL/TUP AND WENT SLIGHTLY
LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY
WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS BROUGHT A
LATER TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA IN AT JBR...AND REINTRODUCED VCTS AT
MEM FOR 06Z LINE.

MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF CIGS IN THE 1000-2000FT RANGE BTN 10-16Z
ON THURSDAY...WITH STILL INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. BROUGHT AT LEAST A TEMPO IN FOR MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT MKL IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. WINDS GUSTS INCREASE TO 20-30KT ACROSS THE AREA BY
18Z ON THURSDAY.

NGU

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011723
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1223 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE THREAT SOME.
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

JCL

DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CURRENTLY AT LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE MVFR CIGS PERSIST.
CIGS AT JBR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. WARM
FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...EXPECT THAT WE MAY SEE SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FORM NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
THIS AFTERNOON. TIMING AND COVERAGE ARE STILL HARD TO PIN DOWN SO
WENT WITH JUST VCTS AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR JBR WHERE SFC
BASED INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY MORE...AT JBR WENT TEMPO FOR -TSRA
BETWEEN 20-23Z...STARTED VCTS A TAD LATER AT MKL/TUP AND WENT SLIGHTLY
LONGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MORE ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE ENERGY
WILL BE OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. DUE TO THIS BROUGHT A
LATER TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA IN AT JBR...AND REINTRODUCED VCTS AT
MEM FOR 06Z LINE.

MAY SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF CIGS IN THE 1000-2000FT RANGE BTN 10-16Z
ON THURSDAY...WITH STILL INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. BROUGHT AT LEAST A TEMPO IN FOR MVFR CIGS AT ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT MKL IN THE MORNING. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE AREA
ON THURSDAY. WINDS GUSTS INCREASE TO 20-30KT ACROSS THE AREA BY
18Z ON THURSDAY.

NGU

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011434 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
934 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE THREAT SOME.
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011434 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
934 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE THREAT SOME.
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011434 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
934 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE THREAT SOME.
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011434 AAB
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
934 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO REMOVE MORNING WORDING FROM THE ZONE FORECASTS AND TO
MAKE A FEW TWEAKS TO THE GRIDS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AR INTO NORTH MS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL LIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON. THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SBCAPES CLIMBING TO
BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP. A FEW STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREATS. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL HELP TO LIMIT THE THREAT SOME.
MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO EASTERN
AR LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AREA WIDE WITH WINDS
INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD.
UPDATED ZONE FORECASTS AND GRIDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SENT.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011230
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011230
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011230
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011230
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
730 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

UPDATE...AFTER DIGESTING SOME ADDITIONAL DATA DECIDED TO ADD
TEMPOS TO KJBR AND KMEM FOR TSRAS THIS EVENING.

PREV AVIATION DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 640 AM CST WED APR 1 2015/
VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011140
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
640 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011140
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
640 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 011140
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
640 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 011140
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
640 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR OCCASIONAL IFR IN FOG AT KMKL THIS
MORNING. KEPT A TEMPO FOR LIGHT FOG AT KMKL FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA SO ADDED A TEMPO
FOR A MVFR DECK THIS MORNING. EXPECT SCT SHRAS AND TSRAS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AS A DISTURBANCE APPROACHES. NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH IN THE COVERAGE OR TIMING TO PLACE A TEMPO FOR TSRAS ATTM.
OPTED TO STICK WITH VCTS FOR NOW FROM LATE AFTN THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT EAST THIS MORNING GRADUALLY
VEERING TO SOUTH TONIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE DELTA.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 010821
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF
CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 01/09Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 010821
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
321 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 60S.
MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL HAVE EXITED THE REGION SO WILL CANCEL FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EASTWARD
THROUGH NORTH ALABAMA AND INTO WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THIS FRONT
HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH OVERNIGHT BUT WILL START TO MOVE BACK
TO THE EAST AS A WARM FRONT. THE FRONT WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT. SPC HAS MUCH
OF THE AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE
AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

BY THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE CLOSER TO THE FORECAST AREA SO THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE. IN ADDITION...AS THE FRONT GETS CLOSER TO THE
REGION THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS.

BY FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL START MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA WITH MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION...THERE WILL BE A RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS REMAINING AS THE MAIN THREATS. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING. MUCH COOLER
AIR WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL
BUT A LITTLE WARM ON SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A LARGE STORM
SYSTEM BEGINS TO MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. AS IT DOES...THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND
MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
EAST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP
MORE ON MONDAY AND BE CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS BY TUESDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF
CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 01/09Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 010454
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO EXPAND AND EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #13.

DISCUSSION...

A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
LAUDERDALE COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AS OF 0330Z AND THE SECOND FROM LAWRENCE COUNTY
ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MEMPHIS METRO. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE BEING FED AND
ENERGIZED BY A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BOUNDARIES
AROUND 5KFT. A RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED
BY MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5 C/KM TO THE WEST IS FEEDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF
CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 01/09Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-ST.
     FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CHICKASAW-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
     UNION.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHESTER-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 010454
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO EXPAND AND EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #13.

DISCUSSION...

A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
LAUDERDALE COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AS OF 0330Z AND THE SECOND FROM LAWRENCE COUNTY
ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MEMPHIS METRO. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE BEING FED AND
ENERGIZED BY A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BOUNDARIES
AROUND 5KFT. A RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED
BY MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5 C/KM TO THE WEST IS FEEDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF
CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 01/09Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-ST.
     FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CHICKASAW-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
     UNION.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHESTER-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 010454
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO EXPAND AND EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #13.

DISCUSSION...

A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
LAUDERDALE COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AS OF 0330Z AND THE SECOND FROM LAWRENCE COUNTY
ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MEMPHIS METRO. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE BEING FED AND
ENERGIZED BY A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BOUNDARIES
AROUND 5KFT. A RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED
BY MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5 C/KM TO THE WEST IS FEEDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF
CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 01/09Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-ST.
     FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CHICKASAW-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
     UNION.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHESTER-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 010454
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1154 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1033 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO EXPAND AND EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #13.

DISCUSSION...

A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
LAUDERDALE COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AS OF 0330Z AND THE SECOND FROM LAWRENCE COUNTY
ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MEMPHIS METRO. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE BEING FED AND
ENERGIZED BY A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BOUNDARIES
AROUND 5KFT. A RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED
BY MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5 C/KM TO THE WEST IS FEEDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF
CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 01/09Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS SUNRISE AND PERSIST THROUGH
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY
MID MORNING WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION. THIS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CIGS/VSBYS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-ST.
     FRANCIS.

MO...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR ALCORN-BENTON MS-
     CHICKASAW-DESOTO-ITAWAMBA-LAFAYETTE-LEE MS-MARSHALL-MONROE-
     PANOLA-PONTOTOC-PRENTISS-TATE-TIPPAH-TISHOMINGO-TUNICA-
     UNION.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR CHESTER-FAYETTE-
     HARDEMAN-HARDIN-HAYWOOD-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-MCNAIRY-SHELBY-
     TIPTON.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 010333
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO EXPAND AND EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #13.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
LAUDERDALE COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AS OF 0330Z AND THE SECOND FROM LAWRENCE COUNTY
ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MEMPHIS METRO. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE BEING FED AND
ENERGIZED BY A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BOUNDARIES
AROUND 5KFT. A RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED
BY MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5 C/KM TO THE WEST IS FEEDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO 01/05Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS 01/09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 010333
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1033 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO EXPAND AND EXTEND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #13.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE FIRST BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM
LAUDERDALE COUNTY TENNESSEE SOUTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AS OF 0330Z AND THE SECOND FROM LAWRENCE COUNTY
ARKANSAS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MEMPHIS METRO. THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES AND ARE BEING FED AND
ENERGIZED BY A WESTERLY LOW LEVEL JET NOSING INTO THE BOUNDARIES
AROUND 5KFT. A RESERVOIR OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR CHARACTERIZED
BY MUCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND
7.5 C/KM TO THE WEST IS FEEDING IN ON THE LOW LEVEL JET AND
ALLOWING FOR SOME STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH LARGE HAIL.

IN ADDITION...THE LOW AND MID LEVEL SHEAR PATTERN IS FAVORABLE FOR
BACKBUILDING AND TRAINING STORMS WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.
PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.

UPDATED ZONES...GRIDS...AND HAZARDS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO 01/05Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS 01/09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 312359
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO 01/05Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS 01/09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 312359
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO 01/05Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS 01/09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 312359
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
659 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH MID EVENING WITH PREVAILING VFR CIGS WITH
TEMPORARY REDUCTIONS OF CIGS/VSBYS IN CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH PRIOR TO 01/05Z WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS.

LOWER LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD REDEVELOP
AT KMEM...KJBR...AND KTUP TOWARDS 01/09Z AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS MVFR CLOUD COVER SHOULD MIX OUT BY MID MORNING
WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH REINTRODUCTION OF POTENTIAL MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ANY
CONVECTION.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 312236
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 312236
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 312236
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 312236
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
536 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR EAST AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND WEST TENNESSEE THROUGH 10
PM CDT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE UPSTREAM ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN
MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. THERE HAS
BEEN A RECENT UPSWING IN CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS INTO
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE. THE AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS INCREASINGLY MORE UNSTABLE WITH LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-1500
J/KG...ALONG WITH MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0
C/KM...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. AS
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING THEY SHOULD
INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME SEVERE. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FURTHER SOUTH...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST WITH
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS STILL MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. THE AIRMASS IN THESE AREAS REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH
LARGE HAIL A CONTINUED THREAT. INSTABILITY OVER THESE LOCATIONS
SHOULD WANE EARLY THIS EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
IN THESE LOCATIONS ENDING AROUND SUNSET.

IN BETWEEN ACROSS FAR NORTH MISSISSIPPI...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
THE SOUTHERN CONVECTION HAS LIFTED NORTH AND STABILIZED THE
AIRMASS WHERE THERE REMAINS NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. NORTHERN
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS SOUTHWARD INTO THESE LOCATIONS LATER THIS
EVENING BUT SHOULD BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING WITH LOSS OF
BETTER DAYTIME CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THOUGH
THROUGH THE EVENING AND MAY BE ADDED BACK INTO THE NORTHERN WATCH
IF NEEDED.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT ALONG WITH HAZARDS. PLAN TO
UPDATE THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK SHORTLY.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 312054
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 312054
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
354 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN UNSTABLE GULF AIRMASS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH THIS AFTERNOON.
GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A DISTINCT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ENTERING AR FROM OK WHICH HAS HELPED TO FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE. 12Z LZK SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRIOR SHORTWAVE ARRIVAL...NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC FROM 740MB UP TO
575MB. MINUS 20C LEVELS WERE IMPRESSIVELY LOW AT 19.3KFT. 18Z NAM
SOUNDINGS SHOWED DOWNSTREAM SURFACE- BASED CAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO
2500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS AT 21Z...WITH LIMITED CINH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE OVER NORTH MS THROUGH THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE EVENING... BEFORE THE SHORTWAVE EXITS AND THE BOUNDARY
LAYER STABILIZES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER
NORTHEAST AR THIS EVENING...AS A MORE SUBTLE NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO SOUTHERN MO. THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BECOME
ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED UNSTABLE LAYER AND MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
WEST TN AND NORTHEAST MS DURING THE LATE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY MAY SEE STRONGER CONVECTIVE CAPPING UNDER SHORTWAVE
RIDGING ALOFT. ANY STORM THAT MANAGES TO BREAK THE CAP COULD TAP
INTO SOME IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY...WITH 18Z/31 NAM SHOWING
3500-4000 J/KG OF SURFACED BASED CAPE OVER THE EASTERN AR AND
NORTHWEST MS DELTA.

UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN FALLING THURSDAY...WITH THE
APPROACH OF A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION FROM EAST
CENTRAL AR THROUGH WEST TN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
SEE A SLOW MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE OZARKS.
FRONTAL SPEED SHOULD INCREASE ON FRIDAY...WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
HEIGHT FALLS MOVING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY.
PREFRONTAL AND POST FRONTAL SURFACE WINDS MAY APPROACH WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

DRY MIDCONTINENTAL SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO THE
MIDSOUTH SATURDAY...WITH LOW HUMIDITIES...SUNNY SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS. LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE MAY BRING SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY INTO THE
DELTA FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311722
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311722
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 311722
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 311722
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1222 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TEMPORARILY
TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TOWARDS EARLY EVENING
AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG A SURFACE BOUNDARY.
BEST CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE AT MEM/TUP. LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT MEM/TUP LATE TONIGHT TOWARDS WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 311124
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
624 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KMEM AND KTUP THIS MORNING AND
PERHAPS AT KMKL. REMAINING VFR AT KJBR. SHRAS WILL IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. CIGS WILL LIFT
TO VFR EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME THUNDER AT KTUP
THIS AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED AT VCTS THERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SWLY
TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLYAT
KMEM AND KTUP. SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP AT KMEM AND KTUP BY SUNRISE.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 311124
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
624 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

EXPECT LOWER CLOUDS TO DEVELOP AT KMEM AND KTUP THIS MORNING AND
PERHAPS AT KMKL. REMAINING VFR AT KJBR. SHRAS WILL IMPACT KMEM
AND KTUP THIS MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. CIGS WILL LIFT
TO VFR EVERYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON. COULD SEE SOME THUNDER AT KTUP
THIS AFTERNOON SO INCLUDED AT VCTS THERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT SWLY
TODAY. MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ESPECIALLYAT
KMEM AND KTUP. SHRAS AND TSRAS WILL TAPER OFF AROUND OR JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD REDEVELOP AT KMEM AND KTUP BY SUNRISE.

SJM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 310827
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO MEM AND TUP NEAR SUNRISE.
MKL MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL MVFR DECK...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AT JBR.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACT AT TUP. BY MID AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR ALLOWING
SOME HEATING AND A REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR WEATHER IN THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 4-8 KTS FROM SOUTH
THROUGH WEST...THOUGH JBR MAY SEE THEM SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 310827
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO MEM AND TUP NEAR SUNRISE.
MKL MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL MVFR DECK...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AT JBR.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACT AT TUP. BY MID AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR ALLOWING
SOME HEATING AND A REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR WEATHER IN THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 4-8 KTS FROM SOUTH
THROUGH WEST...THOUGH JBR MAY SEE THEM SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 310827
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
327 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015


.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
CURRENTLY A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA THROUGH
CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. THIS FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TODAY AND WEAKEN. SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT
LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON. SPC HAS INCLUDED MUCH
OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. BY TONIGHT A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER OVERNIGHT
THAN THE LAST FEW EVENINGS WITH LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 50S.

BY WEDNESDAY...THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL START RETREATING BACK
EAST AS A WARM FRONT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARM
SIDE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE WARM FRONT SHOULD
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO THERE WILL STILL BE A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD AS
WELL WITH LOWS THURSDAY MORNING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

BY THURSDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MOVING
INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME LOCATIONS APPROACHING 80 DEGREES. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE CLOSER TO THE REGION AND REACH
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL MEAN A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK
FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND EXTREME WEST
TENNESSEE. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER ON FRIDAY MAINLY OVER WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTH
MISSISSIPPI WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN
THREATS. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THE
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE REGION WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING MAINLY IN
THE 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY WITH TEMPERATURES PLEASANT FOR THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO MEM AND TUP NEAR SUNRISE.
MKL MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL MVFR DECK...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AT JBR.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACT AT TUP. BY MID AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR ALLOWING
SOME HEATING AND A REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR WEATHER IN THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 4-8 KTS FROM SOUTH
THROUGH WEST...THOUGH JBR MAY SEE THEM SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 310452
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1152 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 846 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

UPDATE...

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

DISCUSSION...

A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WARM FRONT POSITIONED
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID SPRING PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING A SUNNY DAY TODAY...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING WAS STALLED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...RETURNING 50S
AND 60S DEWPOINTS TO THE MIDSOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR...MAIN
SOUTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO JACKSON TN LINE. GFS PROGS BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE MORE IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR CAPPING. HAVE PLACED
THURSDAY POPS NORTH OF I-40....WHERE CONVECTIVE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 80 TO 100 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND MAY PROVIDE THE MIDSOUTH
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK.

DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY....WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF SET

VFR OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS MOVING INTO MEM AND TUP NEAR SUNRISE.
MKL MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL MVFR DECK...BUT NOT AS CONFIDENT AT JBR.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL FORM DURING THE MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST
IMPACT AT TUP. BY MID AFTERNOON CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR ALLOWING
SOME HEATING AND A REGENERATION OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOME STORMS
COULD PRODUCE HIGHER WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR WEATHER IN THE
EVENING...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 4-8 KTS FROM SOUTH
THROUGH WEST...THOUGH JBR MAY SEE THEM SHIFT NORTHEASTERLY LATE.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 310146
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
846 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WARM FRONT POSITIONED
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID SPRING PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING A SUNNY DAY TODAY...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING WAS STALLED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...RETURNING 50S
AND 60S DEWPOINTS TO THE MIDSOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR...MAIN
SOUTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO JACKSON TN LINE. GFS PROGS BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE MORE IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR CAPPING. HAVE PLACED
THURSDAY POPS NORTH OF I-40....WHERE CONVECTIVE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 80 TO 100 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND MAY PROVIDE THE MIDSOUTH
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK.

DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY....WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT BEFORE
DAWN MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SO INTRODUCED VCTS AT TUP.
BETTER THREAT FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING SOUTHWEST TO WEST TOMORROW.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 310146
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
846 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
EAST OVERNIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME...A SURFACE WARM FRONT POSITIONED
ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR OF CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI WILL LIFT NORTH
INTO THE MID SOUTH TOWARDS SUNRISE. INCREASING MOISTURE AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT
LEAST ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE MID SOUTH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED
AT THIS TIME.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID SPRING PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING A SUNNY DAY TODAY...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING WAS STALLED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...RETURNING 50S
AND 60S DEWPOINTS TO THE MIDSOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR...MAIN
SOUTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO JACKSON TN LINE. GFS PROGS BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE MORE IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR CAPPING. HAVE PLACED
THURSDAY POPS NORTH OF I-40....WHERE CONVECTIVE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 80 TO 100 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND MAY PROVIDE THE MIDSOUTH
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK.

DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY....WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT BEFORE
DAWN MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SO INTRODUCED VCTS AT TUP.
BETTER THREAT FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING SOUTHWEST TO WEST TOMORROW.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 302320
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID SPRING PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING A SUNNY DAY TODAY...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING WAS STALLED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...RETURNING 50S
AND 60S DEWPOINTS TO THE MIDSOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR...MAIN
SOUTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO JACKSON TN LINE. GFS PROGS BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE MORE IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR CAPPING. HAVE PLACED
THURSDAY POPS NORTH OF I-40....WHERE CONVECTIVE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 80 TO 100 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND MAY PROVIDE THE MIDSOUTH
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK.

DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY....WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT BEFORE
DAWN MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SO INTRODUCED VCTS AT TUP.
BETTER THREAT FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING SOUTHWEST TO WEST TOMORROW.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 302320
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID SPRING PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING A SUNNY DAY TODAY...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING WAS STALLED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...RETURNING 50S
AND 60S DEWPOINTS TO THE MIDSOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR...MAIN
SOUTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO JACKSON TN LINE. GFS PROGS BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE MORE IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR CAPPING. HAVE PLACED
THURSDAY POPS NORTH OF I-40....WHERE CONVECTIVE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 80 TO 100 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND MAY PROVIDE THE MIDSOUTH
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK.

DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY....WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT BEFORE
DAWN MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SO INTRODUCED VCTS AT TUP.
BETTER THREAT FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING SOUTHWEST TO WEST TOMORROW.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 302320
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID SPRING PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING A SUNNY DAY TODAY...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING WAS STALLED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...RETURNING 50S
AND 60S DEWPOINTS TO THE MIDSOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR...MAIN
SOUTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO JACKSON TN LINE. GFS PROGS BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE MORE IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR CAPPING. HAVE PLACED
THURSDAY POPS NORTH OF I-40....WHERE CONVECTIVE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 80 TO 100 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND MAY PROVIDE THE MIDSOUTH
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK.

DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY....WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT BEFORE
DAWN MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SO INTRODUCED VCTS AT TUP.
BETTER THREAT FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING SOUTHWEST TO WEST TOMORROW.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 302320
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
620 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID SPRING PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING A SUNNY DAY TODAY...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING WAS STALLED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...RETURNING 50S
AND 60S DEWPOINTS TO THE MIDSOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR...MAIN
SOUTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO JACKSON TN LINE. GFS PROGS BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE MORE IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR CAPPING. HAVE PLACED
THURSDAY POPS NORTH OF I-40....WHERE CONVECTIVE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 80 TO 100 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND MAY PROVIDE THE MIDSOUTH
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK.

DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY....WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF SET

VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...BUT BEFORE
DAWN MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
WARM FRONT. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDER IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI SO INTRODUCED VCTS AT TUP.
BETTER THREAT FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE JUST BEYOND THIS TAF
PERIOD. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT...TURNING SOUTHWEST TO WEST TOMORROW.

JAB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 302014
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID SPRING PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING A SUNNY DAY TODAY...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING WAS STALLED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...RETURNING 50S
AND 60S DEWPOINTS TO THE MIDSOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR...MAIN
SOUTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO JACKSON TN LINE. GFS PROGS BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE MORE IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR CAPPING. HAVE PLACED
THURSDAY POPS NORTH OF I-40....WHERE CONVECTIVE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 80 TO 100 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND MAY PROVIDE THE MIDSOUTH
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK.

DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY....WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z.
THEREAFTER...MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHRAS MAY DEVELOP
HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 302014
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL EARLY TO MID SPRING PATTERN TO PREVAIL OVER THE
LOWER 48 THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING A SUNNY DAY TODAY...
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE MIDSOUTH TUESDAY AND
LINGER THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH LATE SUNDAY
EVENING WAS STALLED ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT TONIGHT...RETURNING 50S
AND 60S DEWPOINTS TO THE MIDSOUTH BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW SHORTWAVE WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE WARM SECTOR...MAIN
SOUTH OF A JONESBORO AR TO JACKSON TN LINE. GFS PROGS BOUNDARY
LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG OVER NORTH MS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF STRONGER SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT INTO THE OHIO
RIVER VALLEY BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDSOUTH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THURSDAY/S RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE MORE IN QUESTION...AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE STRENGTH OF PREFRONTAL/WARM SECTOR CAPPING. HAVE PLACED
THURSDAY POPS NORTH OF I-40....WHERE CONVECTIVE CAP SHOULD BE WEAKEST.

12Z GFS AND ECMWF MODELS WERE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT
TO A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY 80 TO 100 METER 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AND MAY PROVIDE THE MIDSOUTH
WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE WEEK.

DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY....WITH LIGHT EASTERLY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z.
THEREAFTER...MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHRAS MAY DEVELOP
HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 301720
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

ITS BEEN A NOISY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AS
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND RACED ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RIVER HEARD AN HOUR OR SO OF THUNDER AND PICKED UP A THIRD TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE UP TO THREE INCHES MAY HAVE ACCUMULATED ALONG
THE ALABAMA TENNESSEE STATE LINE BETWEEN HICKORY VALLEY TENNESSEE
AND HOLLY SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE MIDSOUTH. BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...AND MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S AREA WIDE. IF RAIN/STORMS AREN`T ENTIRELY OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH
BY SUNRISE...THEY SHOULDN`T LINGER MORE THAN AN HOUR OR SO AS THE
FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTH.

SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THE GFS HAS READINGS AS WARM AS THE MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY...BUT
LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS...THE OPERATIONAL MEMBER IS THE
WARMEST. THE COOLEST MEMBER IS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. NEVERTHELESS WE
WILL SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A
WHILE MIDWEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY
MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN WARMER. TOMORROW WILL BE 5 DEGREES OR
SO WARMER. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...GUIDANCE HAS
A 100KT JET MAX FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH MISSOURI. HOWEVER...WE
COULD SEE A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A 30-40KT
LLJ. CAPPING COULD BE AN ISSUE...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
80 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS NEAR 60...AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
DOES HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AREAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...IN THEIR DAY 5 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE HWO JUST YET...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
IRON OUT THE DETAILS BEFORE THURSDAY. GENERAL...LESS THREATENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
30-40 PERCENT COVERAGE.

SOME STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE LLJ AND THE UPPER
DYNAMICS SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TURN COOLER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY. NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS REALLY NICE...DRY AND COOLER.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z.
THEREAFTER...MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHRAS MAY DEVELOP
HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 301720
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

ITS BEEN A NOISY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AS
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND RACED ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RIVER HEARD AN HOUR OR SO OF THUNDER AND PICKED UP A THIRD TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE UP TO THREE INCHES MAY HAVE ACCUMULATED ALONG
THE ALABAMA TENNESSEE STATE LINE BETWEEN HICKORY VALLEY TENNESSEE
AND HOLLY SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE MIDSOUTH. BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...AND MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S AREA WIDE. IF RAIN/STORMS AREN`T ENTIRELY OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH
BY SUNRISE...THEY SHOULDN`T LINGER MORE THAN AN HOUR OR SO AS THE
FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTH.

SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THE GFS HAS READINGS AS WARM AS THE MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY...BUT
LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS...THE OPERATIONAL MEMBER IS THE
WARMEST. THE COOLEST MEMBER IS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. NEVERTHELESS WE
WILL SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A
WHILE MIDWEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY
MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN WARMER. TOMORROW WILL BE 5 DEGREES OR
SO WARMER. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...GUIDANCE HAS
A 100KT JET MAX FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH MISSOURI. HOWEVER...WE
COULD SEE A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A 30-40KT
LLJ. CAPPING COULD BE AN ISSUE...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
80 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS NEAR 60...AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
DOES HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AREAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...IN THEIR DAY 5 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE HWO JUST YET...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
IRON OUT THE DETAILS BEFORE THURSDAY. GENERAL...LESS THREATENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
30-40 PERCENT COVERAGE.

SOME STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE LLJ AND THE UPPER
DYNAMICS SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TURN COOLER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY. NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS REALLY NICE...DRY AND COOLER.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z.
THEREAFTER...MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHRAS MAY DEVELOP
HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 301720
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

ITS BEEN A NOISY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AS
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND RACED ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RIVER HEARD AN HOUR OR SO OF THUNDER AND PICKED UP A THIRD TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE UP TO THREE INCHES MAY HAVE ACCUMULATED ALONG
THE ALABAMA TENNESSEE STATE LINE BETWEEN HICKORY VALLEY TENNESSEE
AND HOLLY SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE MIDSOUTH. BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...AND MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S AREA WIDE. IF RAIN/STORMS AREN`T ENTIRELY OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH
BY SUNRISE...THEY SHOULDN`T LINGER MORE THAN AN HOUR OR SO AS THE
FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTH.

SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THE GFS HAS READINGS AS WARM AS THE MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY...BUT
LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS...THE OPERATIONAL MEMBER IS THE
WARMEST. THE COOLEST MEMBER IS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. NEVERTHELESS WE
WILL SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A
WHILE MIDWEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY
MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN WARMER. TOMORROW WILL BE 5 DEGREES OR
SO WARMER. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...GUIDANCE HAS
A 100KT JET MAX FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH MISSOURI. HOWEVER...WE
COULD SEE A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A 30-40KT
LLJ. CAPPING COULD BE AN ISSUE...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
80 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS NEAR 60...AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
DOES HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AREAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...IN THEIR DAY 5 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE HWO JUST YET...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
IRON OUT THE DETAILS BEFORE THURSDAY. GENERAL...LESS THREATENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
30-40 PERCENT COVERAGE.

SOME STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE LLJ AND THE UPPER
DYNAMICS SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TURN COOLER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY. NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS REALLY NICE...DRY AND COOLER.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z.
THEREAFTER...MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHRAS MAY DEVELOP
HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 301720
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

ITS BEEN A NOISY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AS
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND RACED ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RIVER HEARD AN HOUR OR SO OF THUNDER AND PICKED UP A THIRD TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE UP TO THREE INCHES MAY HAVE ACCUMULATED ALONG
THE ALABAMA TENNESSEE STATE LINE BETWEEN HICKORY VALLEY TENNESSEE
AND HOLLY SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE MIDSOUTH. BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...AND MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S AREA WIDE. IF RAIN/STORMS AREN`T ENTIRELY OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH
BY SUNRISE...THEY SHOULDN`T LINGER MORE THAN AN HOUR OR SO AS THE
FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTH.

SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THE GFS HAS READINGS AS WARM AS THE MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY...BUT
LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS...THE OPERATIONAL MEMBER IS THE
WARMEST. THE COOLEST MEMBER IS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. NEVERTHELESS WE
WILL SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A
WHILE MIDWEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY
MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN WARMER. TOMORROW WILL BE 5 DEGREES OR
SO WARMER. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...GUIDANCE HAS
A 100KT JET MAX FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH MISSOURI. HOWEVER...WE
COULD SEE A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A 30-40KT
LLJ. CAPPING COULD BE AN ISSUE...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
80 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS NEAR 60...AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
DOES HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AREAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...IN THEIR DAY 5 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE HWO JUST YET...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
IRON OUT THE DETAILS BEFORE THURSDAY. GENERAL...LESS THREATENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
30-40 PERCENT COVERAGE.

SOME STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE LLJ AND THE UPPER
DYNAMICS SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TURN COOLER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY. NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS REALLY NICE...DRY AND COOLER.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 9Z.
THEREAFTER...MVFR CIGS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WARM FRONT. SOME LIGHT SHRAS MAY DEVELOP
HAVE INTRODUCED VCSH. OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 301131
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ITS BEEN A NOISY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AS
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND RACED ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RIVER HEARD AN HOUR OR SO OF THUNDER AND PICKED UP A THIRD TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE UP TO THREE INCHES MAY HAVE ACCUMULATED ALONG
THE ALABAMA TENNESSEE STATE LINE BETWEEN HICKORY VALLEY TENNESSEE
AND HOLLY SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE MIDSOUTH. BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...AND MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S AREA WIDE. IF RAIN/STORMS AREN`T ENTIRELY OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH
BY SUNRISE...THEY SHOULDN`T LINGER MORE THAN AN HOUR OR SO AS THE
FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTH.

SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THE GFS HAS READINGS AS WARM AS THE MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY...BUT
LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS...THE OPERATIONAL MEMBER IS THE
WARMEST. THE COOLEST MEMBER IS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. NEVERTHELESS WE
WILL SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A
WHILE MIDWEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY
MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN WARMER. TOMORROW WILL BE 5 DEGREES OR
SO WARMER. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...GUIDANCE HAS
A 100KT JET MAX FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH MISSOURI. HOWEVER...WE
COULD SEE A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A 30-40KT
LLJ. CAPPING COULD BE AN ISSUE...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
80 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS NEAR 60...AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
DOES HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AREAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...IN THEIR DAY 5 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE HWO JUST YET...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
IRON OUT THE DETAILS BEFORE THURSDAY. GENERAL...LESS THREATENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
30-40 PERCENT COVERAGE.

SOME STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE LLJ AND THE UPPER
DYNAMICS SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TURN COOLER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY. NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS REALLY NICE...DRY AND COOLER.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KMKL AREA THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 301131
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ITS BEEN A NOISY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AS
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND RACED ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RIVER HEARD AN HOUR OR SO OF THUNDER AND PICKED UP A THIRD TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE UP TO THREE INCHES MAY HAVE ACCUMULATED ALONG
THE ALABAMA TENNESSEE STATE LINE BETWEEN HICKORY VALLEY TENNESSEE
AND HOLLY SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE MIDSOUTH. BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...AND MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S AREA WIDE. IF RAIN/STORMS AREN`T ENTIRELY OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH
BY SUNRISE...THEY SHOULDN`T LINGER MORE THAN AN HOUR OR SO AS THE
FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTH.

SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THE GFS HAS READINGS AS WARM AS THE MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY...BUT
LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS...THE OPERATIONAL MEMBER IS THE
WARMEST. THE COOLEST MEMBER IS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. NEVERTHELESS WE
WILL SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A
WHILE MIDWEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY
MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN WARMER. TOMORROW WILL BE 5 DEGREES OR
SO WARMER. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...GUIDANCE HAS
A 100KT JET MAX FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH MISSOURI. HOWEVER...WE
COULD SEE A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A 30-40KT
LLJ. CAPPING COULD BE AN ISSUE...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
80 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS NEAR 60...AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
DOES HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AREAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...IN THEIR DAY 5 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE HWO JUST YET...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
IRON OUT THE DETAILS BEFORE THURSDAY. GENERAL...LESS THREATENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
30-40 PERCENT COVERAGE.

SOME STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE LLJ AND THE UPPER
DYNAMICS SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TURN COOLER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY. NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS REALLY NICE...DRY AND COOLER.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KMKL AREA THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 301131
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ITS BEEN A NOISY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AS
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND RACED ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RIVER HEARD AN HOUR OR SO OF THUNDER AND PICKED UP A THIRD TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE UP TO THREE INCHES MAY HAVE ACCUMULATED ALONG
THE ALABAMA TENNESSEE STATE LINE BETWEEN HICKORY VALLEY TENNESSEE
AND HOLLY SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE MIDSOUTH. BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...AND MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S AREA WIDE. IF RAIN/STORMS AREN`T ENTIRELY OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH
BY SUNRISE...THEY SHOULDN`T LINGER MORE THAN AN HOUR OR SO AS THE
FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTH.

SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THE GFS HAS READINGS AS WARM AS THE MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY...BUT
LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS...THE OPERATIONAL MEMBER IS THE
WARMEST. THE COOLEST MEMBER IS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. NEVERTHELESS WE
WILL SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A
WHILE MIDWEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY
MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN WARMER. TOMORROW WILL BE 5 DEGREES OR
SO WARMER. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...GUIDANCE HAS
A 100KT JET MAX FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH MISSOURI. HOWEVER...WE
COULD SEE A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A 30-40KT
LLJ. CAPPING COULD BE AN ISSUE...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
80 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS NEAR 60...AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
DOES HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AREAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...IN THEIR DAY 5 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE HWO JUST YET...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
IRON OUT THE DETAILS BEFORE THURSDAY. GENERAL...LESS THREATENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
30-40 PERCENT COVERAGE.

SOME STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE LLJ AND THE UPPER
DYNAMICS SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TURN COOLER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY. NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS REALLY NICE...DRY AND COOLER.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE KMKL AREA THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD EXIT
THE AREA BY MID MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MUCH
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 300837
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ITS BEEN A NOISY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AS
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND RACED ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RIVER HEARD AN HOUR OR SO OF THUNDER AND PICKED UP A THIRD TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE UP TO THREE INCHES MAY HAVE ACCUMULATED ALONG
THE ALABAMA TENNESSEE STATE LINE BETWEEN HICKORY VALLEY TENNESSEE
AND HOLLY SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE MIDSOUTH. BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...AND MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S AREA WIDE. IF RAIN/STORMS AREN`T ENTIRELY OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH
BY SUNRISE...THEY SHOULDN`T LINGER MORE THAN AN HOUR OR SO AS THE
FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTH.

SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THE GFS HAS READINGS AS WARM AS THE MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY...BUT
LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS...THE OPERATIONAL MEMBER IS THE
WARMEST. THE COOLEST MEMBER IS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. NEVERTHELESS WE
WILL SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A
WHILE MIDWEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY
MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN WARMER. TOMORROW WILL BE 5 DEGREES OR
SO WARMER. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...GUIDANCE HAS
A 100KT JET MAX FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH MISSOURI. HOWEVER...WE
COULD SEE A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A 30-40KT
LLJ. CAPPING COULD BE AN ISSUE...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
80 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS NEAR 60...AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
DOES HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AREAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...IN THEIR DAY 5 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE HWO JUST YET...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
IRON OUT THE DETAILS BEFORE THURSDAY. GENERAL...LESS THREATENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
30-40 PERCENT COVERAGE.

SOME STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE LLJ AND THE UPPER
DYNAMICS SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TURN COOLER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY. NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS REALLY NICE...DRY AND COOLER.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KMEM AND KMKL BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 08Z OR
SO. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AT 5 KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD PASS THROUGH KMEM AND MKL AROUND 30/06Z. AT KJBR...THE
FRONT WILL BE THROUGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS...NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 30/10Z AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT KTUP. KTUP SHOULD BE IMPACTED THROUGH THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND 30/09Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
NORTHERLY AT 6 KTS OR LESS. ALL RAIN SHOULD END BEFORE SUNRISE AT
ALL SITES WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH SUNRISE.

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE COMMON BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AT 5
KTS OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 300837
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
337 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ITS BEEN A NOISY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE MIDSOUTH AS
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED AND RACED ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT. STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
RIVER HEARD AN HOUR OR SO OF THUNDER AND PICKED UP A THIRD TO
THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAIN...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE UP TO THREE INCHES MAY HAVE ACCUMULATED ALONG
THE ALABAMA TENNESSEE STATE LINE BETWEEN HICKORY VALLEY TENNESSEE
AND HOLLY SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI. TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S SOUTH OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT
ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE MAJORITY
OF THE MIDSOUTH. BY SUNRISE...THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...AND MORNING LOWS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S AREA WIDE. IF RAIN/STORMS AREN`T ENTIRELY OUT OF THE MIDSOUTH
BY SUNRISE...THEY SHOULDN`T LINGER MORE THAN AN HOUR OR SO AS THE
FRONT MOVES RAPIDLY SOUTH.

SPRING LIKE TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
THE GFS HAS READINGS AS WARM AS THE MIDDLE 80S BY THURSDAY...BUT
LOOKING AT THE ENSEMBLE NUMBERS...THE OPERATIONAL MEMBER IS THE
WARMEST. THE COOLEST MEMBER IS IN THE MIDDLE 70S. NEVERTHELESS WE
WILL SEE SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WE HAVE SEEN IN QUITE A
WHILE MIDWEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGHS SHOULD BE NEAR 70 FOR MOST
OF THE AREA TODAY. WE SHOULD SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE BY MIDDAY
MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN WARMER. TOMORROW WILL BE 5 DEGREES OR
SO WARMER. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION ON THURSDAY. THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR STRONG OR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH...GUIDANCE HAS
A 100KT JET MAX FROM KANSAS INTO NORTH MISSOURI. HOWEVER...WE
COULD SEE A BIT OF LOWER LEVEL SUPPORT IN THE FORM OF A 30-40KT
LLJ. CAPPING COULD BE AN ISSUE...BUT WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING
80 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS NEAR 60...AT LEAST A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ON THURSDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
DOES HIGHLIGHT PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL AND NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS...AREAS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS...IN THEIR DAY 5 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY
MENTION IN THE HWO JUST YET...THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO
IRON OUT THE DETAILS BEFORE THURSDAY. GENERAL...LESS THREATENING
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY...GENERALLY
30-40 PERCENT COVERAGE.

SOME STORMS MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT THE LLJ AND THE UPPER
DYNAMICS SHOULD SHIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO TURN COOLER LIMITING SURFACE INSTABILITY. NEXT WEEKEND
LOOKS REALLY NICE...DRY AND COOLER.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KMEM AND KMKL BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER 08Z OR
SO. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERLY AT 5 KTS BEHIND A COLD FRONT
THAT SHOULD PASS THROUGH KMEM AND MKL AROUND 30/06Z. AT KJBR...THE
FRONT WILL BE THROUGH AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
NORTHERLY WINDS...NO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...AND MID LEVEL CLOUD
DECK. VFR CIGS AND VSBYS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH 30/10Z AT ALL
SITES EXCEPT KTUP. KTUP SHOULD BE IMPACTED THROUGH THE FIRST FEW
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH AROUND 30/09Z...WHEN WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
NORTHERLY AT 6 KTS OR LESS. ALL RAIN SHOULD END BEFORE SUNRISE AT
ALL SITES WITH CLEARING SKIES AND SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
THROUGH SUNRISE.

CLEAR SKIES WILL BE COMMON BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AT 5
KTS OR LESS. SOME SCATTERED MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING WITH LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





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