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000
FXUS64 KMEG 042041
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
341 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN WILL PREVAIL OVER CONTIGUOUS U.S.
THROUGH LATE FRIDAY. IN THE INTERIM...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL LIFT
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING...TO THE MIDATLANTIC COAST. THE
MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS AND LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF RAIN FOLLOWING THIS
AFTERNOON/S SHOWERS EAST OF MEMPHIS.

THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY...AS THE EASTERN U.S.
UPPER LOW IS OVERTAKEN BY NORTHERN BRANCH ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
OUT OF CANADA. THIS WILL ALLOW BRIEF UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...BRINING WARMER AND MORE SEASONAL TEMPS
TO THE MIDSOUTH THIS WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL DOWNSTREAM FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE
MIDSOUTH BY EARLY MONDAY...AS DAYTIME HEATING AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL
IMPULSES ARE EJECTED FROM THE MAIN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONTINUED
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK...MODULATED BY
DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES LIFTING INTO
THE MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 041733
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1233 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY... A TRANQUIL MORNING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AREAWIDE WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FROM THE WSW UNDER CLEAR SKIES. 08Z H5
ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE FA WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NNE OVER MICHIGAN WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD OVER NE
NORTH CAROLINA.

AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NNE OF THE REGION MIGRATES
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FEATURE. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE FAR EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NEAREST THE TN RIVER WILL HOLD THE BEST
CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE MS
RIVER LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE
LOWER 70S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABNORMALLY COOL FOR EARLY MAY
ONLY IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW
RESIDING JUST EAST OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO AN OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS ENTRENCHED
LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH
BY EARLY FRIDAY...INITIATING A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON A BEAUTIFUL FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS INVOF THE REGION WILL WARM NICELY TO THE LOW 80S
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
REGION ALLOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES TO PROGRESS TOWARD
THE REGION. SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVES SE AND
WINDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS A LOW DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN ON MONDAY AND INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY TO MID MAY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF WEST TENNESSEE AND NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS
BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST BY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT BUT THEN INCREASE TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

ARS

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 041131
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
631 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY... A TRANQUIL MORNING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AREAWIDE WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FROM THE WSW UNDER CLEAR SKIES. 08Z H5
ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE FA WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NNE OVER MICHIGAN WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD OVER NE
NORTH CAROLINA.

AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NNE OF THE REGION MIGRATES
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FEATURE. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE FAR EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NEAREST THE TN RIVER WILL HOLD THE BEST
CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE MS
RIVER LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE
LOWER 70S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABNORMALLY COOL FOR EARLY MAY
ONLY IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW
RESIDING JUST EAST OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO AN OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS ENTRENCHED
LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH
BY EARLY FRIDAY...INITIATING A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON A BEAUTIFUL FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS INVOF THE REGION WILL WARM NICELY TO THE LOW 80S
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
REGION ALLOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES TO PROGRESS TOWARD
THE REGION. SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVES SE AND
WINDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS A LOW DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN ON MONDAY AND INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY TO MID MAY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

ZDM


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS ONGOING THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
SCT TO BKN SKIES EXPECTED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS AT KMKL AND KTUP AS A
RESULT. WINDS FROM THE WEST WILL BECOME MORE WNW AND STRONG THIS
AFTERNOON AS A RESULT OF A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WITH GUSTS UP TO 28 KTS. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE AND BECOME
MORE NORTHERLY AFTER SUNSET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 040812
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
312 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY... A TRANQUIL MORNING IS ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AREAWIDE WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FROM THE WSW UNDER CLEAR SKIES. 08Z H5
ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE
MIDSOUTH AS A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. MEANWHILE SURFACE
ANALYSIS PLACES HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE FA WITH A
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NNE OVER MICHIGAN WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD OVER NE
NORTH CAROLINA.

AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NNE OF THE REGION MIGRATES
SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL BE SUSTAINED AROUND 15-20 MPH
LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FEATURE. LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE FAR EASTERN THIRD OF THE FA LATE THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS NEAREST THE TN RIVER WILL HOLD THE BEST
CHANCES OF ANY PRECIPITATION...WITH AREAS NEAR AND WEST OF THE MS
RIVER LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY ALL DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE
LOWER 70S TODAY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS ABNORMALLY COOL FOR EARLY MAY
ONLY IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER FOR THURSDAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW
RESIDING JUST EAST OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE. THE PATTERN ALOFT DEVELOPS INTO AN OMEGA
BLOCK PATTERN BY LATE THURSDAY WITH A RIDGE AXIS ENTRENCHED
LEEWARD OF THE ROCKIES WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST AND
ANOTHER COMING ONSHORE OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE MIDSOUTH
BY EARLY FRIDAY...INITIATING A WARMING TREND ACROSS THE FA. HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON A BEAUTIFUL FRIDAY AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS INVOF THE REGION WILL WARM NICELY TO THE LOW 80S
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT.

BY EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE
REGION ALLOWING AN UPPER LOW OVER THE ROCKIES TO PROGRESS TOWARD
THE REGION. SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER MOVES SE AND
WINDS ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY UNDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ENSUE AS A LOW DEEPENS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SUCH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
RETURN ON MONDAY AND INCREASE BY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW
APPROACHES THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
EARLY TO MID MAY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
LESS THAN 4 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND
STRENGTHEN TO 14 TO 20 KTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SITE WILL BE AT KMKL
AND KTUP...WITH KMEM ONLY NEEDING A VCSH. RAIN WILL MOVE OUT BY
SUNDOWN...AND WINDS WILL RELAX TO LESS THAN 10 KTS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 040457
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1157 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND CAUSING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MOST PLACES
WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
MEMPHIS IN WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND A SMALL
PORTION OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE A COOL NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S.

AN UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...FAIRLY THICK DECK OF STRATOCU COMBINED WITH COOL NW
SURFACE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY. NORMAL HIGH AT MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL...77F.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
BY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WSW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LATEST REGIONAL MODELS SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AS DEPICTED ON SOME REGIONAL HI-RES
MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE CONUS IS COVERED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO
LOWER 50S IN MEMPHIS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO 70F.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME CU NUDGING IN FROM
THE EAST ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT RAIN FREE WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH LOWER 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THINGS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT AND
PERHAPS WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE DRY DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
LESS THAN 4 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND
STRENGTHEN TO 14 TO 20 KTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SITE WILL BE AT KMKL
AND KTUP...WITH KMEM ONLY NEEDING A VCSH. RAIN WILL MOVE OUT BY
SUNDOWN...AND WINDS WILL RELAX TO LESS THAN 10 KTS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 040457
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1157 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 826 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND CAUSING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MOST PLACES
WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
MEMPHIS IN WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND A SMALL
PORTION OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE A COOL NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S.

AN UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...FAIRLY THICK DECK OF STRATOCU COMBINED WITH COOL NW
SURFACE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY. NORMAL HIGH AT MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL...77F.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
BY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WSW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LATEST REGIONAL MODELS SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AS DEPICTED ON SOME REGIONAL HI-RES
MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE CONUS IS COVERED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO
LOWER 50S IN MEMPHIS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO 70F.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME CU NUDGING IN FROM
THE EAST ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT RAIN FREE WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH LOWER 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THINGS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT AND
PERHAPS WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE DRY DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

VFR CONDS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
LESS THAN 4 KTS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND
STRENGTHEN TO 14 TO 20 KTS GUSTING AS HIGH AS 30 KTS AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SITE WILL BE AT KMKL
AND KTUP...WITH KMEM ONLY NEEDING A VCSH. RAIN WILL MOVE OUT BY
SUNDOWN...AND WINDS WILL RELAX TO LESS THAN 10 KTS SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 040126
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
826 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND CAUSING SOME
WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN. THE RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT AND MOST PLACES
WILL NOT SEE ANYTHING. HAVE INCREASED POPS IN AN AREA NORTH OF
MEMPHIS IN WEST TENNESSEE...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...AND A SMALL
PORTION OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS. OTHERWISE A COOL NIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 50S.

AN UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.
TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...FAIRLY THICK DECK OF STRATOCU COMBINED WITH COOL NW
SURFACE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY. NORMAL HIGH AT MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL...77F.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
BY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WSW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LATEST REGIONAL MODELS SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AS DEPICTED ON SOME REGIONAL HI-RES
MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE CONUS IS COVERED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO
LOWER 50S IN MEMPHIS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO 70F.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME CU NUDGING IN FROM
THE EAST ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT RAIN FREE WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH LOWER 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THINGS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT AND
PERHAPS WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE DRY DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE MEM EVENING ARRIVAL AND OVERNIGHT DEPARTURE PUSHES.

WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO 14 TO 20 KTS GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 30 KTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SITE
WILL BE AT KMKL AND KTUP...WITH KMEM ONLY NEEDING A VCSH. RAIN
WILL MOVE OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 032353
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
653 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...FAIRLY THICK DECK OF STRATOCU COMBINED WITH COOL NW
SURFACE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY. NORMAL HIGH AT MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL...77F.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
BY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WSW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LATEST REGIONAL MODELS SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AS DEPICTED ON SOME REGIONAL HI-RES
MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE CONUS IS COVERED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO
LOWER 50S IN MEMPHIS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO 70F.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME CU NUDGING IN FROM
THE EAST ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT RAIN FREE WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH LOWER 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THINGS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT AND
PERHAPS WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE DRY DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE MEM EVENING ARRIVAL AND OVERNIGHT DEPARTURE PUSHES.

WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO 14 TO 20 KTS GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 30 KTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SITE
WILL BE AT KMKL AND KTUP...WITH KMEM ONLY NEEDING A VCSH. RAIN
WILL MOVE OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 032353
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
653 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...FAIRLY THICK DECK OF STRATOCU COMBINED WITH COOL NW
SURFACE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY. NORMAL HIGH AT MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL...77F.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
BY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WSW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LATEST REGIONAL MODELS SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AS DEPICTED ON SOME REGIONAL HI-RES
MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE CONUS IS COVERED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO
LOWER 50S IN MEMPHIS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO 70F.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME CU NUDGING IN FROM
THE EAST ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT RAIN FREE WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH LOWER 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THINGS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT AND
PERHAPS WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE DRY DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE MEM EVENING ARRIVAL AND OVERNIGHT DEPARTURE PUSHES.

WINDS WILL SHIFT WESTERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO 14 TO 20 KTS GUSTING
AS HIGH AS 30 KTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ON SITE
WILL BE AT KMKL AND KTUP...WITH KMEM ONLY NEEDING A VCSH. RAIN
WILL MOVE OUT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 031946
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
246 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...FAIRLY THICK DECK OF STRATOCU COMBINED WITH COOL NW
SURFACE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY. NORMAL HIGH AT MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL...77F.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
BY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WSW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LATEST REGIONAL MODELS SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AS DEPICTED ON SOME REGIONAL HI-RES
MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE CONUS IS COVERED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO
LOWER 50S IN MEMPHIS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO 70F.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME CU NUDGING IN FROM
THE EAST ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT RAIN FREE WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH LOWER 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THINGS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT AND
PERHAPS WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE DRY DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE MEM EVENING ARRIVAL AND OVERNIGHT DEPARTURE PUSHES.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 031946
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
246 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...FAIRLY THICK DECK OF STRATOCU COMBINED WITH COOL NW
SURFACE WINDS KEEPING TEMPS IN THE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY. NORMAL HIGH AT MEMPHIS INTERNATIONAL...77F.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER TROUGH WILL PASS THROUGH AND SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S
BY MORNING. AN UPPER LOW WILL DROP FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE
WSW AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WHICH WILL HELP TEMPS WARM
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LATEST REGIONAL MODELS SOME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG...ACROSS THE
REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH. THIS
COULD LEAD TO A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN PARTS OF THE MIDSOUTH AS DEPICTED ON SOME REGIONAL HI-RES
MODELS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LOW DROPS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE CONUS IS COVERED BY AN OMEGA BLOCK.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.
LOWS EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN THE COOLER SPOTS TO
LOWER 50S IN MEMPHIS. HIGHS ON THURSDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO 70F.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH PERHAPS SOME CU NUDGING IN FROM
THE EAST ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. EXPECT RAIN FREE WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS WITH LOWER 80S
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LOOKS LIKE THINGS HAVE SLOWED DOWN A BIT AND
PERHAPS WE CAN SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE DRY DAY ON MONDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE MEM EVENING ARRIVAL AND OVERNIGHT DEPARTURE PUSHES.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 031728 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

SOME AREAS STARTED OUT WITH SUN BUT THE CU FIELD IS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING IN PREVIOUSLY CLOUD FREE AREAS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DUE TO SURFACE HEATING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
STRAY SHOWER AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
WITH A LIGHT N/NW WIND.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

CURRENTLY... 08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A QUIET NIGHT
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60. MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED NNW OF THE REGION WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
CENTERS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL FA WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SE.

UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND
INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS A DRY PERIOD ENSUES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC WINDS PERSISTING FROM THE
NORTH. BY WEDNESDAY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING JUST TO THE NE
OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN EXTENTS OF THE FA MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROVE A
BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS WE LOSE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER
THURSDAY HIGHS ARE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE REGION
TO THE POTENT UPPER LOW SITUATED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALOFT OF THE
FA. AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP OVER CONUS EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY JUST
AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
A RIDGE AXIS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS AND EXTENDING
FROM WEST TEXAS NORTH TO EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY JUST AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. THUS ENSUES A WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS A
DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

BY EARLY MONDAY MODELS DEPICT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP
OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EAST INITIATING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THUS WARM AND MOIST AIR TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE MEM EVENING ARRIVAL AND OVERNIGHT DEPARTURE PUSHES.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 031728 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1228 PM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

SOME AREAS STARTED OUT WITH SUN BUT THE CU FIELD IS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING IN PREVIOUSLY CLOUD FREE AREAS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DUE TO SURFACE HEATING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
STRAY SHOWER AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
WITH A LIGHT N/NW WIND.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

CURRENTLY... 08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A QUIET NIGHT
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60. MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED NNW OF THE REGION WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
CENTERS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL FA WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SE.

UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND
INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS A DRY PERIOD ENSUES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC WINDS PERSISTING FROM THE
NORTH. BY WEDNESDAY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING JUST TO THE NE
OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN EXTENTS OF THE FA MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROVE A
BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS WE LOSE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER
THURSDAY HIGHS ARE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE REGION
TO THE POTENT UPPER LOW SITUATED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALOFT OF THE
FA. AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP OVER CONUS EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY JUST
AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
A RIDGE AXIS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS AND EXTENDING
FROM WEST TEXAS NORTH TO EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY JUST AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. THUS ENSUES A WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS A
DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

BY EARLY MONDAY MODELS DEPICT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP
OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EAST INITIATING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THUS WARM AND MOIST AIR TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED FOR
THE MEM EVENING ARRIVAL AND OVERNIGHT DEPARTURE PUSHES.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND STRENGTHEN
AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 031539
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1039 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SOME AREAS STARTED OUT WITH SUN BUT THE CU FIELD IS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING IN PREVIOUSLY CLOUD FREE AREAS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DUE TO SURFACE HEATING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
STRAY SHOWER AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
WITH A LIGHT N/NW WIND.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

CURRENTLY... 08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A QUIET NIGHT
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60. MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED NNW OF THE REGION WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
CENTERS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL FA WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SE.

UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND
INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS A DRY PERIOD ENSUES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC WINDS PERSISTING FROM THE
NORTH. BY WEDNESDAY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING JUST TO THE NE
OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN EXTENTS OF THE FA MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROVE A
BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS WE LOSE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER
THURSDAY HIGHS ARE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE REGION
TO THE POTENT UPPER LOW SITUATED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALOFT OF THE
FA. AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP OVER CONUS EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY JUST
AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
A RIDGE AXIS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS AND EXTENDING
FROM WEST TEXAS NORTH TO EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY JUST AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. THUS ENSUES A WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS A
DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

BY EARLY MONDAY MODELS DEPICT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP
OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EAST INITIATING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THUS WARM AND MOIST AIR TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
KTUP WHERE EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO
LIFR TEMPORARILY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO KTUP AFTER 15Z. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 031539
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1039 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SOME AREAS STARTED OUT WITH SUN BUT THE CU FIELD IS RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING IN PREVIOUSLY CLOUD FREE AREAS AS LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DUE TO SURFACE HEATING. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
STRAY SHOWER AS AN UPPER TROF APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM TO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
WITH A LIGHT N/NW WIND.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

CURRENTLY... 08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A QUIET NIGHT
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60. MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED NNW OF THE REGION WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
CENTERS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL FA WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SE.

UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND
INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS A DRY PERIOD ENSUES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC WINDS PERSISTING FROM THE
NORTH. BY WEDNESDAY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING JUST TO THE NE
OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN EXTENTS OF THE FA MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROVE A
BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS WE LOSE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER
THURSDAY HIGHS ARE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE REGION
TO THE POTENT UPPER LOW SITUATED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALOFT OF THE
FA. AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP OVER CONUS EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY JUST
AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
A RIDGE AXIS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS AND EXTENDING
FROM WEST TEXAS NORTH TO EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY JUST AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. THUS ENSUES A WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS A
DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

BY EARLY MONDAY MODELS DEPICT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP
OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EAST INITIATING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THUS WARM AND MOIST AIR TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
KTUP WHERE EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO
LIFR TEMPORARILY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO KTUP AFTER 15Z. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 031210
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
710 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

CURRENTLY... 08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A QUIET NIGHT
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60. MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED NNW OF THE REGION WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
CENTERS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL FA WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SE.

UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND
INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS A DRY PERIOD ENSUES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC WINDS PERSISTING FROM THE
NORTH. BY WEDNESDAY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING JUST TO THE NE
OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN EXTENTS OF THE FA MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROVE A
BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS WE LOSE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER
THURSDAY HIGHS ARE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE REGION
TO THE POTENT UPPER LOW SITUATED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALOFT OF THE
FA. AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP OVER CONUS EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY JUST
AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
A RIDGE AXIS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS AND EXTENDING
FROM WEST TEXAS NORTH TO EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY JUST AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. THUS ENSUES A WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS A
DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

BY EARLY MONDAY MODELS DEPICT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP
OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EAST INITIATING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THUS WARM AND MOIST AIR TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
KTUP WHERE EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO
LIFR TEMPORARILY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO KTUP AFTER 15Z. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 031210
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
710 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...

12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

CURRENTLY... 08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A QUIET NIGHT
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60. MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED NNW OF THE REGION WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
CENTERS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL FA WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SE.

UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND
INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS A DRY PERIOD ENSUES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC WINDS PERSISTING FROM THE
NORTH. BY WEDNESDAY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING JUST TO THE NE
OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN EXTENTS OF THE FA MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROVE A
BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS WE LOSE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER
THURSDAY HIGHS ARE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE REGION
TO THE POTENT UPPER LOW SITUATED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALOFT OF THE
FA. AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP OVER CONUS EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY JUST
AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
A RIDGE AXIS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS AND EXTENDING
FROM WEST TEXAS NORTH TO EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY JUST AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. THUS ENSUES A WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS A
DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

BY EARLY MONDAY MODELS DEPICT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP
OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EAST INITIATING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THUS WARM AND MOIST AIR TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
KTUP WHERE EARLY MORNING FOG AND STRATUS MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS TO
LIFR TEMPORARILY. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN TO KTUP AFTER 15Z. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR LESS TODAY.

LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR SLOWLY FROM WEST
TO EAST.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 030835
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
335 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY... 08Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DETAIL A QUIET NIGHT
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION UNDER CLOUDY SKIES WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 KTS WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60. MID LEVEL FLOW HAS BECOME MORE ZONAL WITH AN UPPER LOW
SITUATED NNW OF THE REGION WHILE THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
CENTERS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL FA WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SE.

UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND
INTO THE MIDSOUTH TODAY AS A DRY PERIOD ENSUES. CLOUDY SKIES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO REACH
70 DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON WITH SFC WINDS PERSISTING FROM THE
NORTH. BY WEDNESDAY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER WAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL
MOVE OVER THE REGION WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING JUST TO THE NE
OF THE FA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THIS WILL LIKELY INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN EXTENTS OF THE FA MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WEDNESDAY HIGHS WILL PROVE A
BIT WARMER THAN TODAY AS WE LOSE MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER
THURSDAY HIGHS ARE A BIT COOLER GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE REGION
TO THE POTENT UPPER LOW SITUATED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST ALOFT OF THE
FA. AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN SETS UP OVER CONUS EARLY THURSDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY JUST
AS ANOTHER LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ONTO THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WITH
A RIDGE AXIS SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE TWO TROUGHS AND EXTENDING
FROM WEST TEXAS NORTH TO EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE THURSDAY. THE
OVERALL UPPER PATTERN WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AS UPPER HEIGHTS
BEGIN INCREASING OVER THE REGION BY FRIDAY JUST AS THE UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH BECOMING MORE CENTERED
OVER THE REGION. THUS ENSUES A WARMING TREND FOR FRIDAY AND THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AS A
DEAMPLIFYING RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER THE REGION.

BY EARLY MONDAY MODELS DEPICT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING UP
OVER THE REGION AS THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST MOVES OUT OF THE
ROCKIES. SUBSEQUENTLY THE SURFACE HIGH MIGRATES EAST INITIATING
SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND THUS WARM AND MOIST AIR TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION. THIS WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF A MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN AS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

ZDM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS

MAINLY VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG AND LOW CIGS MAY
TEMPORARILY BECOME AN ISSUE AT KTUP AND KMKL NEAR DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS THROUGH PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 11
KNOTS...BECOMING LESS THAN 4 KTS AFTER 04/02Z.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 030459
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

UPDATE...
LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF THE MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE EAST LEFT A FEW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. ALSO...WITH FOG/WELL
MIST/ IN TUPELO AND THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE VERY LOW IN
SOME PLACES NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...SO INCLUDED SOME
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE EASTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK TO BE TRACKING WELL. UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.
TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH TUPELO AND IS JUST ABOUT
READY TO EXIT THE MIDSOUTH. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
HAS BEEN ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPS
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 WHERE RAIN IS OCCURING TO MID 60S OVER NE
AR...TO OVER 70 ACROSS MONROE COUNTY.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...MAYBE A
TSTM OVER NE MS...WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 AS ONE LAST
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. AFTER THAT EXPECT GENERALLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE AND
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...BUT NOT
TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN THIS. THE UPPER TROF SWEEPING THROUGH SHOULD
HELP CLEAR SKIES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH REGION. A QUICK
WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WINDS BRIEFLY TURNS
WSW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN
RIVER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN CLEARING
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MID 40S POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MIDSOUTH LOCATED IN THE SWEET SPOT OF
A SLOW MOVING OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. UPPER LOW INFLUENCE CONTINUES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND LOWS FRIDAY MORNING 45 TO 50.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB TOWARD 80 THIS WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMING INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS POINT TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

MAINLY VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG AND LOW CIGS MAY
TEMPORARILY BECOME AN ISSUE AT KTUP AND KMKL NEAR DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS THROUGH PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 11
KNOTS...BECOMING LESS THAN 4 KTS AFTER 04/02Z.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 030459
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 904 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

UPDATE...
LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF THE MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE EAST LEFT A FEW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. ALSO...WITH FOG/WELL
MIST/ IN TUPELO AND THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE VERY LOW IN
SOME PLACES NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...SO INCLUDED SOME
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE EASTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK TO BE TRACKING WELL. UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.
TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH TUPELO AND IS JUST ABOUT
READY TO EXIT THE MIDSOUTH. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
HAS BEEN ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPS
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 WHERE RAIN IS OCCURING TO MID 60S OVER NE
AR...TO OVER 70 ACROSS MONROE COUNTY.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...MAYBE A
TSTM OVER NE MS...WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 AS ONE LAST
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. AFTER THAT EXPECT GENERALLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE AND
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...BUT NOT
TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN THIS. THE UPPER TROF SWEEPING THROUGH SHOULD
HELP CLEAR SKIES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH REGION. A QUICK
WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WINDS BRIEFLY TURNS
WSW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN
RIVER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN CLEARING
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MID 40S POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MIDSOUTH LOCATED IN THE SWEET SPOT OF
A SLOW MOVING OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. UPPER LOW INFLUENCE CONTINUES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND LOWS FRIDAY MORNING 45 TO 50.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB TOWARD 80 THIS WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMING INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS POINT TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFS

MAINLY VFR CONDS OVER NEXT 24 HOURS. FOG AND LOW CIGS MAY
TEMPORARILY BECOME AN ISSUE AT KTUP AND KMKL NEAR DAYBREAK.
OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS THROUGH PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN MAY BE POSSIBLE
DURING THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 11
KNOTS...BECOMING LESS THAN 4 KTS AFTER 04/02Z.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 030204
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
904 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
LOWER POPS FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RAIN SHOWERS OUT OF THE MID-SOUTH. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS REMAIN
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT JUST TO THE EAST LEFT A FEW
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER. ALSO...WITH FOG/WELL
MIST/ IN TUPELO AND THE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE VERY LOW IN
SOME PLACES NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY...SO INCLUDED SOME
PATCHY FOG ALONG THE EASTERN PARTS OF FORECAST AREA.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS LOOK TO BE TRACKING WELL. UPDATE OUT
SHORTLY.
TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH TUPELO AND IS JUST ABOUT
READY TO EXIT THE MIDSOUTH. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
HAS BEEN ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPS
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 WHERE RAIN IS OCCURING TO MID 60S OVER NE
AR...TO OVER 70 ACROSS MONROE COUNTY.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...MAYBE A
TSTM OVER NE MS...WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 AS ONE LAST
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. AFTER THAT EXPECT GENERALLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE AND
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...BUT NOT
TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN THIS. THE UPPER TROF SWEEPING THROUGH SHOULD
HELP CLEAR SKIES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH REGION. A QUICK
WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WINDS BRIEFLY TURNS
WSW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN
RIVER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN CLEARING
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MID 40S POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MIDSOUTH LOCATED IN THE SWEET SPOT OF
A SLOW MOVING OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. UPPER LOW INFLUENCE CONTINUES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND LOWS FRIDAY MORNING 45 TO 50.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB TOWARD 80 THIS WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMING INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS POINT TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF AREA...HOWEVER A POST
FRONTAL STRATUS DECK WILL STICK AROUND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO PERSIST AT KMKL AND KTUP...WITH KTUP LIKELY
SEEING LIFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND FOG. VFR CONDS
ARE MOST LIKELY AT KJBR AND KMEM THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
CIGS STAYING AT OR ABOVE 3000 FEET. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT IN
TAF. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 11 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

AC3
&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 022349
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
649 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH TUPELO AND IS JUST ABOUT
READY TO EXIT THE MIDSOUTH. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
HAS BEEN ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPS
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 WHERE RAIN IS OCCURING TO MID 60S OVER NE
AR...TO OVER 70 ACROSS MONROE COUNTY.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...MAYBE A
TSTM OVER NE MS...WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 AS ONE LAST
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. AFTER THAT EXPECT GENERALLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE AND
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...BUT NOT
TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN THIS. THE UPPER TROF SWEEPING THROUGH SHOULD
HELP CLEAR SKIES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH REGION. A QUICK
WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WINDS BRIEFLY TURNS
WSW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN
RIVER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN CLEARING
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MID 40S POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MIDSOUTH LOCATED IN THE SWEET SPOT OF
A SLOW MOVING OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. UPPER LOW INFLUENCE CONTINUES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND LOWS FRIDAY MORNING 45 TO 50.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB TOWARD 80 THIS WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMING INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS POINT TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFS

A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED EAST OF AREA...HOWEVER A POST
FRONTAL STRATUS DECK WILL STICK AROUND AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.

EXPECT MVFR CONDS TO PERSIST AT KMKL AND KTUP...WITH KTUP LIKELY
SEEING LIFR AND POSSIBLE VLIFR DUE TO LOW CIGS AND FOG. VFR CONDS
ARE MOST LIKELY AT KJBR AND KMEM THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD WITH
CIGS STAYING AT OR ABOVE 3000 FEET. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY AFTN...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO PUT IN
TAF. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 11 KTS THROUGH PERIOD.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 021949
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
249 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH TUPELO AND IS JUST ABOUT
READY TO EXIT THE MIDSOUTH. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI
HAS BEEN ON A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. TEMPS
RANGE FROM AROUND 60 WHERE RAIN IS OCCURING TO MID 60S OVER NE
AR...TO OVER 70 ACROSS MONROE COUNTY.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS...MAYBE A
TSTM OVER NE MS...WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-40 AS ONE LAST
UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH. AFTER THAT EXPECT GENERALLY
CLOUDY SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS OVER NORTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG. EXPECT LOWS MAINLY IN THE
50S.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ON
TUESDAY WITH WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW. CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE AND
TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER TROF WILL DROP INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND SWEEP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD KICK OFF A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE
EARLY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...BUT NOT
TERRIBLY CONFIDENT IN THIS. THE UPPER TROF SWEEPING THROUGH SHOULD
HELP CLEAR SKIES OUT TUESDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
AND LOWER 50S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL DROP OUT OF
THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
A QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH THROUGH REGION. A QUICK
WARMUP INTO THE MID 70S AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WINDS BRIEFLY TURNS
WSW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TN
RIVER MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THEN CLEARING
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME MID 40S POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY MORNING.

THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...MIDSOUTH LOCATED IN THE SWEET SPOT OF
A SLOW MOVING OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. UPPER LOW INFLUENCE CONTINUES
ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 AND LOWS FRIDAY MORNING 45 TO 50.
UPPER RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHS
WILL CLIMB TOWARD 80 THIS WEEKEND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WARMING INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

MONDAY...LONG RANGE MODELS POINT TO THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN WITH
APPROACHING UPPER TROF.

SJM

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS

SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED TUP AT 17Z. MIDSOUTH TAF SITES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A UTA/TUP LINE THIS AFTERNOON. 16Z RUC AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE
ONLY ISOLATED SHRA THEREAFTER.

REGARDING CIGS...EXPECT NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MS RIVER TO LIFT EAST OF MEM...EXPOSING MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THEREAFTER.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 021742 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1242 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 956 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED OVER NORTH MS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
A COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO OCNL HEAVY RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS WEST AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MS WHERE THE SOME
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
SINCE CELLS ARE MOVING SLOWLY. ALREADY UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS
IN THE SHORT TERM ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THEN TRIMMED POPS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIP
STARTS TO MOVE OUT.

SJM

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MEMPHIS...BUT ARE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IS THE COOLEST AREA WHERE CORNING AND WALNUT RIDGE ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR
PARIS TENNESSEE ACROSS MEMPHIS INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LAPS LI`S ARE BELOW -2C ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH CAPE 350 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LAPS RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7.5C SO HAIL WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...UP TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING SO
HOPEFULLY THAT WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE HRRR HAD BEEN
PERFORMING WELL UNTIL YESTERDAY...AND DOESN`T SEEM TO HAVE A
HANDEL ON THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING.

IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MAY APPROACH 80 ONE MORE
DAY THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY GIVING THE SURFACE FRONT ANOTHER
NUDGE OFF TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

WE WILL SEE A BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS....POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
WEST TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WORK WEEK IN THE COOLEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. WIDESPREAD
LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE LOW 50S MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS

SURFACE COLD FRONT HAD CLEARED TUP AT 17Z. MIDSOUTH TAF SITES WILL
REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD. SHRA/ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE ALONG ALONG AND SOUTH OF
A UTA/TUP LINE THIS AFTERNOON. 16Z RUC AND HRRR MODELS INDICATE
ONLY ISOLATED SHRA THEREAFTER.

REGARDING CIGS...EXPECT NARROW CORRIDOR OF IFR ALONG AND EAST OF
THE MS RIVER TO LIFT EAST OF MEM...EXPOSING MVFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THEREAFTER.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 021456
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
956 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS SITUATED OVER NORTH MS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG
A COLD FRONT. AN AREA OF MODERATE TO OCNL HEAVY RAIN WITH
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS WEST AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL APPEARS TO BE ACROSS NORTHEAST MS WHERE THE SOME
INSTABILITY IS LOCATED. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
SINCE CELLS ARE MOVING SLOWLY. ALREADY UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS
IN THE SHORT TERM ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIVER FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THEN TRIMMED POPS FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AS PRECIP
STARTS TO MOVE OUT.

SJM

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MEMPHIS...BUT ARE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IS THE COOLEST AREA WHERE CORNING AND WALNUT RIDGE ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR
PARIS TENNESSEE ACROSS MEMPHIS INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LAPS LI`S ARE BELOW -2C ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH CAPE 350 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LAPS RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7.5C SO HAIL WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...UP TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING SO
HOPEFULLY THAT WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE HRRR HAD BEEN
PERFORMING WELL UNTIL YESTERDAY...AND DOESN`T SEEM TO HAVE A
HANDEL ON THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING.

IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MAY APPROACH 80 ONE MORE
DAY THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY GIVING THE SURFACE FRONT ANOTHER
NUDGE OFF TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

WE WILL SEE A BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS....POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
WEST TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WORK WEEK IN THE COOLEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. WIDESPREAD
LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE LOW 50S MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENTLY A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE FA
AND WILL SOON IMPACT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE PREVAILED SHRA AND VCTS THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPO TO HANDLE TSRA AND LOWER VISBYS TO MVFR CAT.
GIVEN THE POOR HANDLING OF CONVECTION BY MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING IS LOW. WINDS
GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS
TODAY...AND SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TO BE NEAR 5 KTS BY END OF PERIOD.
VCSH INCLUDED THROUGH TONIGHT BUT DROPPED LATE IN PERIOD AS FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF REGION.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 021138
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
638 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

DISCUSSION...

EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MEMPHIS...BUT ARE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IS THE COOLEST AREA WHERE CORNING AND WALNUT RIDGE ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR
PARIS TENNESSEE ACROSS MEMPHIS INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LAPS LI`S ARE BELOW -2C ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH CAPE 350 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LAPS RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7.5C SO HAIL WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...UP TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING SO
HOPEFULLY THAT WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE HRRR HAD BEEN
PERFORMING WELL UNTIL YESTERDAY...AND DOESN`T SEEM TO HAVE A
HANDEL ON THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING.

IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MAY APPROACH 80 ONE MORE
DAY THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY GIVING THE SURFACE FRONT ANOTHER
NUDGE OFF TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

WE WILL SEE A BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS....POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
WEST TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WORK WEEK IN THE COOLEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. WIDESPREAD
LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE LOW 50S MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

CURRENTLY A LINE OF SHRA AND TSRA IS MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE FA
AND WILL SOON IMPACT ALL TERMINALS. HAVE PREVAILED SHRA AND VCTS THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPO TO HANDLE TSRA AND LOWER VISBYS TO MVFR CAT.
GIVEN THE POOR HANDLING OF CONVECTION BY MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THIS TIMING IS LOW. WINDS
GENERALLY FROM A NORTHERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 5 AND 12 KTS
TODAY...AND SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TO BE NEAR 5 KTS BY END OF PERIOD.
VCSH INCLUDED THROUGH TONIGHT BUT DROPPED LATE IN PERIOD AS FRONT
FINALLY PUSHES SOUTH OF REGION.


ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 020900
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
400 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S AT MEMPHIS...BUT ARE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDSOUTH. NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS IS THE COOLEST AREA WHERE CORNING AND WALNUT RIDGE ARE
REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S. MORNING LOWS SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT IS NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA STRETCHING FROM NEAR
PARIS TENNESSEE ACROSS MEMPHIS INTO SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS. ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF THIS BOUNDARY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING...WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
FARTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH LOUISIANA.
INSTABILITY IS SLOWLY DIMINISHING ACROSS NORTH MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST CENTRAL ARKANSAS. LAPS LI`S ARE BELOW -2C ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH CAPE 350 J/KG OR LESS. HOWEVER...A TROUGH IS
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST HELPING TO PROVIDE DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. LAPS RATES ARE MODEST...AROUND 7.5C SO HAIL WOULD
BE THE MOST LIKELY THREAT. PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS HIGH IN
NORTH MISSISSIPPI...UP TO ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...STORMS SHOULD BE MOVING SO
HOPEFULLY THAT WILL LIMIT ANY FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE HRRR HAD BEEN
PERFORMING WELL UNTIL YESTERDAY...AND DOESN`T SEEM TO HAVE A
HANDEL ON THE CURRENT DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AND NORTH
LOUISIANA. THE NAM LOOKS TO BE THE MODEL OF CHOICE THIS MORNING.

IT WILL BE COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE FRONT. HIGHS
SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI MAY APPROACH 80 ONE MORE
DAY THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY GIVING THE SURFACE FRONT ANOTHER
NUDGE OFF TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
COME TO AN END ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.

WE WILL SEE A BLOCKING PATTERN SET UP TOMORROW AND REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL DAYS....POSSIBLY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT BENIGN WEATHER. CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
MILD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. A CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM MAY BRING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS TO
WEST TENNESSEE WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
HIGHS MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 60S IN DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE WORK WEEK IN THE COOLEST PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH. WIDESPREAD
LOW 70S CAN BE EXPECTED. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
WEEK OR SO SHOULD OCCUR WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING WHEN SOME
LOCATIONS COULD DIP INTO THE MIDDLE 40S. MOST OF THE AREA WILL SEE
LOWS IN THE LOW 50S MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND SLIGHTLY
WARMER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
WEEKEND.

30

&&


.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH
AND ALONG I-40 OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF -TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE AT
12Z-15Z AT KMEM AND KMKL...AND 15Z-18Z AT KTUP. COVERAGE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE TOMORROW MORNING AT KMEM AND KMKL. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT KTUP UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMEM...KMKL..AND KTUP...AND ONLY
VFR ARE EXPECTED FOR KJBR.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 020509
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1209 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO ADDITIONAL UPDATE PLANNED. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL
IN PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI. STORMS NOT MOVING MUCH
PRODUCING A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN. SO PROBLEM IS IT STORMS STAY
OVER ONE AREA LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.
TLSJR


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO
MEMPHIS...TO MONTICELLO ARKANSAS. THERE IS ALMOST A SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SITS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE
VALUES ARE 2500-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...THESE
STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF A CAMDEN TENNESSEE
TO CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI LINE. MODELS INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY WILL BE WET AND COOL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. AS
A RESULT...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND
THE GFS SHOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND AFFECT
AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HAVE ADDED POPS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH
AND ALONG I-40 OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF -TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE AT
12Z-15Z AT KMEM AND KMKL...AND 15Z-18Z AT KTUP. COVERAGE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE TOMORROW MORNING AT KMEM AND KMKL. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT KTUP UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMEM...KMKL..AND KTUP...AND ONLY
VFR ARE EXPECTED FOR KJBR.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 020509
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1209 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
NO ADDITIONAL UPDATE PLANNED. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL
IN PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI. STORMS NOT MOVING MUCH
PRODUCING A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN. SO PROBLEM IS IT STORMS STAY
OVER ONE AREA LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.
TLSJR


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO
MEMPHIS...TO MONTICELLO ARKANSAS. THERE IS ALMOST A SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SITS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE
VALUES ARE 2500-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...THESE
STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF A CAMDEN TENNESSEE
TO CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI LINE. MODELS INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY WILL BE WET AND COOL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. AS
A RESULT...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND
THE GFS SHOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND AFFECT
AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HAVE ADDED POPS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

SHORT TERM MODELS DEPICT SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY SOUTH
AND ALONG I-40 OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF -TSRA ACTIVITY WILL BE AT
12Z-15Z AT KMEM AND KMKL...AND 15Z-18Z AT KTUP. COVERAGE WILL BEGIN
TO DECREASE TOMORROW MORNING AT KMEM AND KMKL. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES WILL REMAIN AT KTUP UNTIL LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. VFR
AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KMEM...KMKL..AND KTUP...AND ONLY
VFR ARE EXPECTED FOR KJBR.

JPM3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 020155
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
855 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...
NO ADDITIONAL UPDATE PLANNED. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS STILL
IN PARTS OF TENNESSEE AND MISSISSIPPI. STORMS NOT MOVING MUCH
PRODUCING A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAIN. SO PROBLEM IS IT STORMS STAY
OVER ONE AREA LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.
TLSJR

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO
MEMPHIS...TO MONTICELLO ARKANSAS. THERE IS ALMOST A SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SITS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE
VALUES ARE 2500-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...THESE
STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF A CAMDEN TENNESSEE
TO CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI LINE. MODELS INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY WILL BE WET AND COOL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. AS
A RESULT...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND
THE GFS SHOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND AFFECT
AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HAVE ADDED POPS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

TSRA WAS SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
WEST TN AND NORTHWEST MS AT 2330Z. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS POISED
ROUGHLY ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE MS RIVER...WHILE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER TSRA WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION.

BOTH 18Z NAM AND 22Z RUC MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MEM NEAR 06Z. DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...BOTH THE 18Z
NAM AND 18Z GFS DEVELOP SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHRA/TSRA ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A MEM/MKL LINE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AIDED BY
INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT AT FL350. PERIODS OF MVFR AND
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH HAVEN/T GONE AS PESSIMISTIC WITH
CIGS AS THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 012342 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
642 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 242 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHES FROM NEAR PARIS TENNESSEE TO
MEMPHIS...TO MONTICELLO ARKANSAS. THERE IS ALMOST A SOLID LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONT. A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS SITS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS DEWPOINTS
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S THIS AFTERNOON. CAPE
VALUES ARE 2500-3000 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS A RESULT...THESE
STORMS COULD QUICKLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

AFTER SUNSET...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO
DIMINISH THANKS TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT WILL LIKELY STILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF A CAMDEN TENNESSEE
TO CLARKSDALE MISSISSIPPI LINE. MODELS INDICATING A SFC LOW WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN NORTHEAST TEXAS AND MOVE NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE AREA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON SHOWING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH BY MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY WILL BE WET AND COOL ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACROSS
THE AREA.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE SWINGS AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF. AS
A RESULT...BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. HOWEVER...SMALL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY
BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST COAST. MODELS ARE SHOWING A REINFORCING
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND
THE GFS SHOW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AND AFFECT
AREAS OF WEST TENNESSEE NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER. HAVE ADDED POPS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY BUT THEN A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS AN UPPER RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA BY
SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 80S BY THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS

TSRA WAS SHOWING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER
WEST TN AND NORTHWEST MS AT 2330Z. A STATIONARY FRONT WAS POISED
ROUGHLY ALONG AND PARALLEL TO THE MS RIVER...WHILE MESOSCALE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER TSRA WAS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS
WITH VARIABLE DIRECTION.

BOTH 18Z NAM AND 22Z RUC MODELS PUSH THE COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST
THROUGH MEM NEAR 06Z. DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT...BOTH THE 18Z
NAM AND 18Z GFS DEVELOP SCATTERED POST FRONTAL SHRA/TSRA ALONG
AND SOUTHEAST OF A MEM/MKL LINE BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...AIDED BY
INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT WINDS ALOFT AT FL350. PERIODS OF MVFR AND
TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE...THOUGH HAVEN/T GONE AS PESSIMISTIC WITH
CIGS AS THE GFS LAMP GUIDANCE SUGGESTS.

PWB

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





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