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000
FXUS64 KMEG 270915
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
415 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GOES IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
TX/NM BORDER. A LINEAR MCS EXTENDED FROM EAST TX INTO THE TX
COASTAL PLAIN...PROPAGATING EAST/SOUTHEAST. KLZK RADAR SHOWED AND
EAST/WEST BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AR... INTO WEST
CENTRAL MS. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE TX MCS WERE
FLOWING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TODAY SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AR/NORTHWEST
MS DELTA THIS MORNING...AIDED BY A WEAK MCV EJECTING EASTWARD OUT
OF THE ARKLATEX. ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES OR GETS LOST UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE...RAIN CHANCES NEAR AND THE SOUTHWEST
OF MEMPHIS SHOULD WANE TOWARD MIDDAY. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE HIGH
CLOUDS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL
ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE TONIGHT...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST AND INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
SPREADS INTO THE MIDSOUTH. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE CLOSED LOW...RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WEST OF THE MS RIVER...AND INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
THE TN RIVER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
HIGH NORTH OF I40 THROUGH THE EVENT...MAINLY UNDER 1 INCH...WHILE
UP TO 1.5 INCH PW VALUES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHEAST MS.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A NORTHERN BRANCH
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...
BEHIND THE EXITING SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY BEFORE THE NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER
LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AT KMKL THAT COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR OR
LOWER. WINDS TONIGHT NE 6-12 KTS. WINDS MONDAY NE 10-13 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KTS. AFTER 28/00Z...WINDS NE 6-10 KTS.

JCL/KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270915
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
415 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
GOES IR/WV IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
TX/NM BORDER. A LINEAR MCS EXTENDED FROM EAST TX INTO THE TX
COASTAL PLAIN...PROPAGATING EAST/SOUTHEAST. KLZK RADAR SHOWED AND
EAST/WEST BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN AR... INTO WEST
CENTRAL MS. EXTENSIVE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE TX MCS WERE
FLOWING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TODAY SHOULD SEE CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS CONTINUE OVER THE
MIDSOUTH. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AR/NORTHWEST
MS DELTA THIS MORNING...AIDED BY A WEAK MCV EJECTING EASTWARD OUT
OF THE ARKLATEX. ONCE THIS FEATURE PASSES OR GETS LOST UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGE...RAIN CHANCES NEAR AND THE SOUTHWEST
OF MEMPHIS SHOULD WANE TOWARD MIDDAY. GIVEN THE EXTENSIVE HIGH
CLOUDS AND WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...HAVE UNDERCUT MODEL
ENSEMBLE MOS TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MAX TEMPS TODAY.

RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE BY LATE TONIGHT...ONCE THE SHORTWAVE
RIDGE PASSES TO THE EAST AND INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL
SPREADS INTO THE MIDSOUTH. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
THE CLOSED LOW...RAIN CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING WEST OF THE MS RIVER...AND INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON NEAR
THE TN RIVER. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
HIGH NORTH OF I40 THROUGH THE EVENT...MAINLY UNDER 1 INCH...WHILE
UP TO 1.5 INCH PW VALUES ARE LIKELY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHEAST MS.

GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DROPPING A NORTHERN BRANCH
UPPER LOW DIRECTLY SOUTH FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY...
BEHIND THE EXITING SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY OCCUR OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY BEFORE THE NORTHERN BRANCH UPPER
LOW DEPARTS THURSDAY EVENING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BRING DRY WEATHER AND WARMING TEMPS
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH FOR THE WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AT KMKL THAT COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR OR
LOWER. WINDS TONIGHT NE 6-12 KTS. WINDS MONDAY NE 10-13 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KTS. AFTER 28/00Z...WINDS NE 6-10 KTS.

JCL/KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 270520
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT LEAVING ONLY
SOME CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEAREST AREA OF RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA IS OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
SO HAVE REMOVED ANY CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY SEEING ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. FROM THIS A LARGE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEEN...WITH MID 50S NORTH...TO
NEAR 80 SOUTH. WINDS WERE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS. CURRENT
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY THE
FAR SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES WILL RUN THE RISK OF A STRAY SHOWER
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE CONVECTION IN TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN COUPLED WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TRACKING DUE EAST INTO
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE ARE ALSO PRETTY WELL MATCHED ON THE 12Z RUN...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH AND THE COVERAGE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW...WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND EURO ALSO SHOW A SECOND VORT
LOBE SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH...WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO BE PLAY IT MORE
CONSERVATIVELY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERING HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO. A THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE NONEXISTENT AMT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BACKING MORE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE HIGHS EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE REGION
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S...TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AT KMKL THAT COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR OR
LOWER. WINDS TONIGHT NE 6-12 KTS. WINDS MONDAY NE 10-13 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KTS. AFTER 28/00Z...WINDS NE 6-10 KTS.

JCL/KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 270520
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT LEAVING ONLY
SOME CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEAREST AREA OF RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA IS OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
SO HAVE REMOVED ANY CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY SEEING ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. FROM THIS A LARGE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEEN...WITH MID 50S NORTH...TO
NEAR 80 SOUTH. WINDS WERE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS. CURRENT
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY THE
FAR SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES WILL RUN THE RISK OF A STRAY SHOWER
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE CONVECTION IN TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN COUPLED WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TRACKING DUE EAST INTO
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE ARE ALSO PRETTY WELL MATCHED ON THE 12Z RUN...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH AND THE COVERAGE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW...WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND EURO ALSO SHOW A SECOND VORT
LOBE SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH...WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO BE PLAY IT MORE
CONSERVATIVELY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERING HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO. A THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE NONEXISTENT AMT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BACKING MORE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE HIGHS EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE REGION
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S...TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AT KMKL THAT COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR OR
LOWER. WINDS TONIGHT NE 6-12 KTS. WINDS MONDAY NE 10-13 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KTS. AFTER 28/00Z...WINDS NE 6-10 KTS.

JCL/KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270520
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT LEAVING ONLY
SOME CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEAREST AREA OF RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA IS OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
SO HAVE REMOVED ANY CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY SEEING ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. FROM THIS A LARGE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEEN...WITH MID 50S NORTH...TO
NEAR 80 SOUTH. WINDS WERE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS. CURRENT
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY THE
FAR SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES WILL RUN THE RISK OF A STRAY SHOWER
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE CONVECTION IN TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN COUPLED WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TRACKING DUE EAST INTO
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE ARE ALSO PRETTY WELL MATCHED ON THE 12Z RUN...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH AND THE COVERAGE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW...WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND EURO ALSO SHOW A SECOND VORT
LOBE SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH...WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO BE PLAY IT MORE
CONSERVATIVELY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERING HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO. A THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE NONEXISTENT AMT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BACKING MORE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE HIGHS EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE REGION
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S...TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AT KMKL THAT COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR OR
LOWER. WINDS TONIGHT NE 6-12 KTS. WINDS MONDAY NE 10-13 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KTS. AFTER 28/00Z...WINDS NE 6-10 KTS.

JCL/KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 270520
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 929 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT LEAVING ONLY
SOME CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEAREST AREA OF RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA IS OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
SO HAVE REMOVED ANY CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY SEEING ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. FROM THIS A LARGE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEEN...WITH MID 50S NORTH...TO
NEAR 80 SOUTH. WINDS WERE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS. CURRENT
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY THE
FAR SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES WILL RUN THE RISK OF A STRAY SHOWER
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE CONVECTION IN TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN COUPLED WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TRACKING DUE EAST INTO
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE ARE ALSO PRETTY WELL MATCHED ON THE 12Z RUN...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH AND THE COVERAGE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW...WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND EURO ALSO SHOW A SECOND VORT
LOBE SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH...WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO BE PLAY IT MORE
CONSERVATIVELY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERING HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO. A THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE NONEXISTENT AMT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BACKING MORE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE HIGHS EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE REGION
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S...TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS
SOME FOG DEVELOPING AT KMKL THAT COULD REDUCE CONDITIONS TO IFR OR
LOWER. WINDS TONIGHT NE 6-12 KTS. WINDS MONDAY NE 10-13 KTS WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 18 KTS. AFTER 28/00Z...WINDS NE 6-10 KTS.

JCL/KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 270229
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
929 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT LEAVING ONLY
SOME CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEAREST AREA OF RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA IS OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
SO HAVE REMOVED ANY CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY SEEING ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. FROM THIS A LARGE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEEN...WITH MID 50S NORTH...TO
NEAR 80 SOUTH. WINDS WERE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS. CURRENT
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY THE
FAR SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES WILL RUN THE RISK OF A STRAY SHOWER
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE CONVECTION IN TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN COUPLED WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TRACKING DUE EAST INTO
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE ARE ALSO PRETTY WELL MATCHED ON THE 12Z RUN...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH AND THE COVERAGE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW...WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND EURO ALSO SHOW A SECOND VORT
LOBE SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH...WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO BE PLAY IT MORE
CONSERVATIVELY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERING HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO. A THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE NONEXISTENT AMT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BACKING MORE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE HIGHS EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE REGION
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S...TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (27/00Z-28/00Z)

LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING VFR. AFTERWARDS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT N
TO NE 6-12 KTS. WINDS MONDAY NE 10-13 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
18 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 270229
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
929 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SOME LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE
WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA IS MOSTLY CLEAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 60
DEGREES. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN OUT LEAVING ONLY
SOME CLOUDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEAREST AREA OF RAIN
TO THE FORECAST AREA IS OVER NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT
SO HAVE REMOVED ANY CHANCE OF RAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY SEEING ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. FROM THIS A LARGE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEEN...WITH MID 50S NORTH...TO
NEAR 80 SOUTH. WINDS WERE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS. CURRENT
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY THE
FAR SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES WILL RUN THE RISK OF A STRAY SHOWER
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE CONVECTION IN TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN COUPLED WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TRACKING DUE EAST INTO
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE ARE ALSO PRETTY WELL MATCHED ON THE 12Z RUN...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH AND THE COVERAGE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW...WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND EURO ALSO SHOW A SECOND VORT
LOBE SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH...WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO BE PLAY IT MORE
CONSERVATIVELY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERING HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO. A THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE NONEXISTENT AMT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BACKING MORE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE HIGHS EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE REGION
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S...TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (27/00Z-28/00Z)

LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING VFR. AFTERWARDS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT N
TO NE 6-12 KTS. WINDS MONDAY NE 10-13 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
18 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 262305 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
605 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY SEEING ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. FROM THIS A LARGE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEEN...WITH MID 50S NORTH...TO
NEAR 80 SOUTH. WINDS WERE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS. CURRENT
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY THE
FAR SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES WILL RUN THE RISK OF A STRAY SHOWER
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE CONVECTION IN TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN COUPLED WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TRACKING DUE EAST INTO
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE ARE ALSO PRETTY WELL MATCHED ON THE 12Z RUN...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH AND THE COVERAGE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW...WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND EURO ALSO SHOW A SECOND VORT
LOBE SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH...WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO BE PLAY IT MORE
CONSERVATIVELY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERING HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO. A THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE NONEXISTENT ATT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BACKING MORE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE HIGHS EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE REGION
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S...TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (27/00Z-28/00Z)

LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING VFR. AFTERWARDS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT N
TO NE 6-12 KTS. WINDS MONDAY NE 10-13 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
18 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 262305 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
605 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY SEEING ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. FROM THIS A LARGE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEEN...WITH MID 50S NORTH...TO
NEAR 80 SOUTH. WINDS WERE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS. CURRENT
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY THE
FAR SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES WILL RUN THE RISK OF A STRAY SHOWER
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE CONVECTION IN TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN COUPLED WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TRACKING DUE EAST INTO
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE ARE ALSO PRETTY WELL MATCHED ON THE 12Z RUN...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH AND THE COVERAGE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW...WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND EURO ALSO SHOW A SECOND VORT
LOBE SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH...WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO BE PLAY IT MORE
CONSERVATIVELY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERING HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO. A THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE NONEXISTENT ATT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BACKING MORE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE HIGHS EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE REGION
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S...TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (27/00Z-28/00Z)

LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING VFR. AFTERWARDS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT N
TO NE 6-12 KTS. WINDS MONDAY NE 10-13 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
18 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 262305 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
605 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY SEEING ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. FROM THIS A LARGE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEEN...WITH MID 50S NORTH...TO
NEAR 80 SOUTH. WINDS WERE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS. CURRENT
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY THE
FAR SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES WILL RUN THE RISK OF A STRAY SHOWER
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE CONVECTION IN TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN COUPLED WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TRACKING DUE EAST INTO
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE ARE ALSO PRETTY WELL MATCHED ON THE 12Z RUN...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH AND THE COVERAGE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW...WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND EURO ALSO SHOW A SECOND VORT
LOBE SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH...WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO BE PLAY IT MORE
CONSERVATIVELY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERING HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO. A THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE NONEXISTENT ATT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BACKING MORE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE HIGHS EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE REGION
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S...TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (27/00Z-28/00Z)

LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING VFR. AFTERWARDS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT N
TO NE 6-12 KTS. WINDS MONDAY NE 10-13 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
18 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 262305 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
605 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY SEEING ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. FROM THIS A LARGE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEEN...WITH MID 50S NORTH...TO
NEAR 80 SOUTH. WINDS WERE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS. CURRENT
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY THE
FAR SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES WILL RUN THE RISK OF A STRAY SHOWER
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE CONVECTION IN TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN COUPLED WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TRACKING DUE EAST INTO
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE ARE ALSO PRETTY WELL MATCHED ON THE 12Z RUN...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH AND THE COVERAGE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW...WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND EURO ALSO SHOW A SECOND VORT
LOBE SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH...WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO BE PLAY IT MORE
CONSERVATIVELY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERING HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO. A THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE NONEXISTENT ATT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BACKING MORE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE HIGHS EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE REGION
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S...TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (27/00Z-28/00Z)

LOW CLOUDS RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
GRADUALLY DECREASING THIS EVENING AND BECOMING VFR. AFTERWARDS...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. WINDS TONIGHT N
TO NE 6-12 KTS. WINDS MONDAY NE 10-13 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
18 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 261935
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
235 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY SEEING ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. FROM THIS A LARGE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEEN...WITH MID 50S NORTH...TO
NEAR 80 SOUTH. WINDS WERE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS. CURRENT
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY THE
FAR SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES WILL RUN THE RISK OF A STRAY SHOWER
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE CONVECTION IN TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN COUPLED WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TRACKING DUE EAST INTO
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE ARE ALSO PRETTY WELL MATCHED ON THE 12Z RUN...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH AND THE COVERAGE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW...WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND EURO ALSO SHOW A SECOND VORT
LOBE SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH...WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO BE PLAY IT MORE
CONSERVATIVELY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERING HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO. A THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE NONEXISTENT ATT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BACKING MORE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE HIGHS EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE REGION
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S...TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KTUP WHERE VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL. ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE
CIGS TO VFR THIS EVENING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 261935
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
235 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY SEEING ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. FROM THIS A LARGE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEEN...WITH MID 50S NORTH...TO
NEAR 80 SOUTH. WINDS WERE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS. CURRENT
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY THE
FAR SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES WILL RUN THE RISK OF A STRAY SHOWER
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE CONVECTION IN TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN COUPLED WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TRACKING DUE EAST INTO
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE ARE ALSO PRETTY WELL MATCHED ON THE 12Z RUN...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH AND THE COVERAGE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW...WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND EURO ALSO SHOW A SECOND VORT
LOBE SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH...WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO BE PLAY IT MORE
CONSERVATIVELY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERING HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO. A THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE NONEXISTENT ATT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BACKING MORE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE HIGHS EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE REGION
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S...TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KTUP WHERE VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL. ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE
CIGS TO VFR THIS EVENING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261935
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
235 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS HANGING TOUGH OVER THE AREA...WITH ONLY NORTH
MISSISSIPPI CURRENTLY SEEING ADEQUATE SUNSHINE. FROM THIS A LARGE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SEEN...WITH MID 50S NORTH...TO
NEAR 80 SOUTH. WINDS WERE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 15 KNOTS.

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES...AND LOW PRESSURE IN TEXAS. CURRENT
CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER CLOUDS IN THE MID
AND UPPER LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONLY THE
FAR SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES WILL RUN THE RISK OF A STRAY SHOWER
TOWARDS DAWN AS THE CONVECTION IN TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST AND
WEAKENS. OTHERWISE...THE MIDSOUTH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN COUPLED WITH
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL KEEP HIGHS ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE STARTING TOMORROW NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING
THE CURRENT UPPER LOW IN THE FOUR CORNERS TRACKING DUE EAST INTO
THE MIDSOUTH BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE ARE ALSO PRETTY WELL MATCHED ON THE 12Z RUN...WITH
RAINFALL TOTALS OF UP TO A HALF AN INCH AND THE COVERAGE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE FORTY. TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN SHOW...WITH DRIER AIR STARTING TO WORK IN FROM
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND EURO ALSO SHOW A SECOND VORT
LOBE SINKING SOUTH BEHIND THE MAIN UPPER FEATURE. THE GFS IS A
BIT MORE BULLISH...WITH RAIN LINGERING ACROSS THE EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE DECIDED TO BE PLAY IT MORE
CONSERVATIVELY...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND LOWERING HIGHS A
DEGREE OR TWO. A THREAT FOR THUNDER APPEARS TO BE NONEXISTENT ATT.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE...BACKING MORE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST STARTING WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FIRST WEEKEND OF MAY WILL BE
INFLUENCED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE HIGHS EACH DAY WITH MOST OF THE REGION
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S...TO LOW 80S. DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KTUP WHERE VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL. ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE
CIGS TO VFR THIS EVENING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 261811
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
111 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADVANCE CLOUD COVER FURTHER SOUTH AND TO LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

DISCUSSION...

THICK STRATUS PROJECTED TO SINK SOUTH OF OXFORD AND TUPELO BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY OVERCAST FARTHER NORTH.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN FORECAST THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF I-40...WITH A COLD 48
DEGREES IN PARIS AS OF 9 AM. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE AND
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BELIEVE MODELS/CURRENT
FORECAST IS TO WARM...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THREE TO FIVE DEGREES.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS WAS EVIDENT ON GOES MULTICHANNEL IR IMAGERY
ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON DAYTIME TEMPS. ASSUMING
THE ELEVATED STRATUS MIXES OUT...06Z NAM CU RULE POINTS TOWARD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CUT
A FEW DEGREES OFF MOS ENSEMBLE TEMPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
I40.

DRY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. BEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER MS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED GULF
MOISTURE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. 06Z NAM MODEL
PROGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES OVER NORTH
MS WILL REACH 1.2 INCHES...WHILE NORTH OF I40...PW VALUES WILL
PREVAIL NEAR 0.5 INCHES...LOWER THAN CURRENT /EARLY SUNDAY MORNING/
VALUES.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIODS...
UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AND WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE ABOVE EARLY MAY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT KTUP WHERE VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL. ALL SITES SHOULD IMPROVE
CIGS TO VFR THIS EVENING WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD. BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261445
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
945 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADVANCE CLOUD COVER FURTHER SOUTH AND TO LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THICK STRATUS PROJECTED TO SINK SOUTH OF OXFORD AND TUPELO BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY OVERCAST FARTHER NORTH.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN FORECAST THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF I-40...WITH A COLD 48
DEGREES IN PARIS AS OF 9 AM. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE AND
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BELIEVE MODELS/CURRENT
FORECAST IS TO WARM...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THREE TO FIVE DEGREES.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS WAS EVIDENT ON GOES MULTICHANNEL IR IMAGERY
ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON DAYTIME TEMPS. ASSUMING
THE ELEVATED STRATUS MIXES OUT...06Z NAM CU RULE POINTS TOWARD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CUT
A FEW DEGREES OFF MOS ENSEMBLE TEMPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
I40.

DRY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. BEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER MS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED GULF
MOISTURE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. 06Z NAM MODEL
PROGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES OVER NORTH
MS WILL REACH 1.2 INCHES...WHILE NORTH OF I40...PW VALUES WILL
PREVAIL NEAR 0.5 INCHES...LOWER THAN CURRENT /EARLY SUNDAY MORNING/
VALUES.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIODS...
UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AND WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE ABOVE EARLY MAY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. KJBR AND KMKL ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS. KMEM SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
13Z AND KTUP BY 15Z. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 19-22Z. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE PERIOD. N WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 261445
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
945 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADVANCE CLOUD COVER FURTHER SOUTH AND TO LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THICK STRATUS PROJECTED TO SINK SOUTH OF OXFORD AND TUPELO BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY OVERCAST FARTHER NORTH.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN FORECAST THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF I-40...WITH A COLD 48
DEGREES IN PARIS AS OF 9 AM. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE AND
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BELIEVE MODELS/CURRENT
FORECAST IS TO WARM...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THREE TO FIVE DEGREES.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS WAS EVIDENT ON GOES MULTICHANNEL IR IMAGERY
ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON DAYTIME TEMPS. ASSUMING
THE ELEVATED STRATUS MIXES OUT...06Z NAM CU RULE POINTS TOWARD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CUT
A FEW DEGREES OFF MOS ENSEMBLE TEMPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
I40.

DRY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. BEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER MS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED GULF
MOISTURE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. 06Z NAM MODEL
PROGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES OVER NORTH
MS WILL REACH 1.2 INCHES...WHILE NORTH OF I40...PW VALUES WILL
PREVAIL NEAR 0.5 INCHES...LOWER THAN CURRENT /EARLY SUNDAY MORNING/
VALUES.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIODS...
UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AND WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE ABOVE EARLY MAY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. KJBR AND KMKL ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS. KMEM SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
13Z AND KTUP BY 15Z. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 19-22Z. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE PERIOD. N WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 261445
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
945 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADVANCE CLOUD COVER FURTHER SOUTH AND TO LOWER HIGH
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THICK STRATUS PROJECTED TO SINK SOUTH OF OXFORD AND TUPELO BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY OVERCAST FARTHER NORTH.
TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN COOLER THAN FORECAST THIS
MORNING...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTH OF I-40...WITH A COLD 48
DEGREES IN PARIS AS OF 9 AM. WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE AND
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE DAY BELIEVE MODELS/CURRENT
FORECAST IS TO WARM...SO HAVE DROPPED HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA
THREE TO FIVE DEGREES.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS WAS EVIDENT ON GOES MULTICHANNEL IR IMAGERY
ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON DAYTIME TEMPS. ASSUMING
THE ELEVATED STRATUS MIXES OUT...06Z NAM CU RULE POINTS TOWARD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CUT
A FEW DEGREES OFF MOS ENSEMBLE TEMPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
I40.

DRY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. BEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER MS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED GULF
MOISTURE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. 06Z NAM MODEL
PROGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES OVER NORTH
MS WILL REACH 1.2 INCHES...WHILE NORTH OF I40...PW VALUES WILL
PREVAIL NEAR 0.5 INCHES...LOWER THAN CURRENT /EARLY SUNDAY MORNING/
VALUES.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIODS...
UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AND WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE ABOVE EARLY MAY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. KJBR AND KMKL ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS. KMEM SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
13Z AND KTUP BY 15Z. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 19-22Z. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE PERIOD. N WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261122
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS WAS EVIDENT ON GOES MULTICHANNEL IR IMAGERY
ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON DAYTIME TEMPS. ASSUMING
THE ELEVATED STRATUS MIXES OUT...06Z NAM CU RULE POINTS TOWARD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CUT
A FEW DEGREES OFF MOS ENSEMBLE TEMPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
I40.

DRY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. BEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER MS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED GULF
MOISTURE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. 06Z NAM MODEL
PROGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES OVER NORTH
MS WILL REACH 1.2 INCHES...WHILE NORTH OF I40...PW VALUES WILL
PREVAIL NEAR 0.5 INCHES...LOWER THAN CURRENT /EARLY SUNDAY MORNING/
VALUES.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIODS...
UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AND WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE ABOVE EARLY MAY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. KJBR AND KMKL ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS. KMEM SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
13Z AND KTUP BY 15Z. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 19-22Z. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE PERIOD. N WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 261122
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS WAS EVIDENT ON GOES MULTICHANNEL IR IMAGERY
ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON DAYTIME TEMPS. ASSUMING
THE ELEVATED STRATUS MIXES OUT...06Z NAM CU RULE POINTS TOWARD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CUT
A FEW DEGREES OFF MOS ENSEMBLE TEMPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
I40.

DRY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. BEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER MS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED GULF
MOISTURE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. 06Z NAM MODEL
PROGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES OVER NORTH
MS WILL REACH 1.2 INCHES...WHILE NORTH OF I40...PW VALUES WILL
PREVAIL NEAR 0.5 INCHES...LOWER THAN CURRENT /EARLY SUNDAY MORNING/
VALUES.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIODS...
UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AND WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE ABOVE EARLY MAY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. KJBR AND KMKL ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS. KMEM SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
13Z AND KTUP BY 15Z. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 19-22Z. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE PERIOD. N WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 261122
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS WAS EVIDENT ON GOES MULTICHANNEL IR IMAGERY
ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON DAYTIME TEMPS. ASSUMING
THE ELEVATED STRATUS MIXES OUT...06Z NAM CU RULE POINTS TOWARD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CUT
A FEW DEGREES OFF MOS ENSEMBLE TEMPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
I40.

DRY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. BEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER MS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED GULF
MOISTURE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. 06Z NAM MODEL
PROGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES OVER NORTH
MS WILL REACH 1.2 INCHES...WHILE NORTH OF I40...PW VALUES WILL
PREVAIL NEAR 0.5 INCHES...LOWER THAN CURRENT /EARLY SUNDAY MORNING/
VALUES.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIODS...
UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AND WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE ABOVE EARLY MAY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. KJBR AND KMKL ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS. KMEM SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
13Z AND KTUP BY 15Z. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 19-22Z. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE PERIOD. N WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 261122
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
622 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS WAS EVIDENT ON GOES MULTICHANNEL IR IMAGERY
ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST TN.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON DAYTIME TEMPS. ASSUMING
THE ELEVATED STRATUS MIXES OUT...06Z NAM CU RULE POINTS TOWARD A
FAIR AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HAVE CUT
A FEW DEGREES OFF MOS ENSEMBLE TEMPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY NORTH OF
I40.

DRY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. BEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER MS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED GULF
MOISTURE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. 06Z NAM MODEL
PROGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES OVER NORTH
MS WILL REACH 1.2 INCHES...WHILE NORTH OF I40...PW VALUES WILL
PREVAIL NEAR 0.5 INCHES...LOWER THAN CURRENT /EARLY SUNDAY MORNING/
VALUES.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIODS...
UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AND WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE ABOVE EARLY MAY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INTO THE MIDSOUTH. KJBR AND KMKL ARE
ALREADY EXPERIENCING MVFR CONDITIONS. KMEM SHOULD BE AFFECTED BY
13Z AND KTUP BY 15Z. CIGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BETWEEN 19-22Z. EXPECT
VFR CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE PERIOD. N WINDS WILL BE AROUND
10-12 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

KRM

&&


&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 260913
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS WAS EVIDENT ON GOES MULTICHANNEL IR
IMAGERY ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST
TN. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON DAYTIME TEMPS.
ASSUMING THE ELEVATED STRATUS MIXES OUT...06Z NAM CU RULE POINTS
TOWARD A FAIR AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF MOS ENSEMBLE TEMPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF I40.

DRY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. BEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER MS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED GULF
MOISTURE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. 06Z NAM MODEL
PROGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES OVER NORTH
MS WILL REACH 1.2 INCHES...WHILE NORTH OF I40...PW VALUES WILL
PREVAIL NEAR 0.5 INCHES...LOWER THAN CURRENT /EARLY SUNDAY MORNING/
VALUES.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIODS...
UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AND WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE ABOVE EARLY MAY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY LIFR AT KMKL. CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. N TO NE WINDS
INCREASING SUNDAY TO NEAR 12 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS. AFTER
27/00Z...NE WINS DIMINISHING TO 6-10 KTS.

JCL/KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 260913
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS WAS EVIDENT ON GOES MULTICHANNEL IR
IMAGERY ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST
TN. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON DAYTIME TEMPS.
ASSUMING THE ELEVATED STRATUS MIXES OUT...06Z NAM CU RULE POINTS
TOWARD A FAIR AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF MOS ENSEMBLE TEMPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF I40.

DRY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. BEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER MS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED GULF
MOISTURE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. 06Z NAM MODEL
PROGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES OVER NORTH
MS WILL REACH 1.2 INCHES...WHILE NORTH OF I40...PW VALUES WILL
PREVAIL NEAR 0.5 INCHES...LOWER THAN CURRENT /EARLY SUNDAY MORNING/
VALUES.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIODS...
UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AND WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE ABOVE EARLY MAY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY LIFR AT KMKL. CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. N TO NE WINDS
INCREASING SUNDAY TO NEAR 12 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS. AFTER
27/00Z...NE WINS DIMINISHING TO 6-10 KTS.

JCL/KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 260913
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS WAS EVIDENT ON GOES MULTICHANNEL IR
IMAGERY ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST
TN. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON DAYTIME TEMPS.
ASSUMING THE ELEVATED STRATUS MIXES OUT...06Z NAM CU RULE POINTS
TOWARD A FAIR AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF MOS ENSEMBLE TEMPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF I40.

DRY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. BEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER MS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED GULF
MOISTURE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. 06Z NAM MODEL
PROGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES OVER NORTH
MS WILL REACH 1.2 INCHES...WHILE NORTH OF I40...PW VALUES WILL
PREVAIL NEAR 0.5 INCHES...LOWER THAN CURRENT /EARLY SUNDAY MORNING/
VALUES.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIODS...
UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AND WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE ABOVE EARLY MAY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY LIFR AT KMKL. CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. N TO NE WINDS
INCREASING SUNDAY TO NEAR 12 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS. AFTER
27/00Z...NE WINS DIMINISHING TO 6-10 KTS.

JCL/KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 260913
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
413 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COOLER TEMPS IN STORE FOR THE MIDSOUTH TODAY. 4 AM CDT SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE I40 CORRIDOR. POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDINESS WAS EVIDENT ON GOES MULTICHANNEL IR
IMAGERY ENTERING FAR NORTHEAST AR...THE MO BOOTHEEL AND NORTHWEST
TN. THESE CLOUDS WILL HAVE A LARGE BEARING ON DAYTIME TEMPS.
ASSUMING THE ELEVATED STRATUS MIXES OUT...06Z NAM CU RULE POINTS
TOWARD A FAIR AMOUNT OF POST FRONTAL CUMULUS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF MOS ENSEMBLE TEMPS FOR TODAY...MAINLY
NORTH OF I40.

DRY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHERN BRANCH CLOSED PASSES THROUGH ON TUESDAY. BEST RAIN
AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR OVER MS...IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED GULF
MOISTURE AND SURFACE LOW TRACKING ALONG THE COAST. 06Z NAM MODEL
PROGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUES OVER NORTH
MS WILL REACH 1.2 INCHES...WHILE NORTH OF I40...PW VALUES WILL
PREVAIL NEAR 0.5 INCHES...LOWER THAN CURRENT /EARLY SUNDAY MORNING/
VALUES.

DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIODS...
UNDER LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPS WILL RECOVER TO NEAR
NORMAL VALUES BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY... AND WARM A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE ABOVE EARLY MAY NORMALS THIS WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY LIFR AT KMKL. CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. N TO NE WINDS
INCREASING SUNDAY TO NEAR 12 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS. AFTER
27/00Z...NE WINS DIMINISHING TO 6-10 KTS.

JCL/KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 260509
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1209 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A
WEAKENING TREND AS THEY APPROACH TENNESSEE SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. RAISED POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

ARS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER
LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL HANGING ON WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. IN THE MIDLEVELS SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS TAKING PLACE...WITH
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LEVELS IS ALSO STARTING TO ADVECT IN
DRIER AIR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING AREA WIDE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO HAVE SHAVED BACK THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY TO JUST THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS RUNNING
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI...WITH NOT MUCH ONGOING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DISSIPATING SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER.
TOWARDS DAWN STRATUS CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL
LIKELY COOL FURTHER ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OFF NORTHERLY
VEERING MORE EASTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN MODELS
STILL APPEAR BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
FORTY. TO NOTE THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER DURING THE PERIOD
AS ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE
TWENTY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FEATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY STARTING THURSDAY AND HOLD FAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION...MAKING FOR
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NUMEROUS EVENTS IN THE AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY LIFR AT KMKL. CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. N TO NE WINDS
INCREASING SUNDAY TO NEAR 12 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS. AFTER
27/00Z...NE WINS DIMINISHING TO 6-10 KTS.

JCL/KRM

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 260509
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1209 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 901 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A
WEAKENING TREND AS THEY APPROACH TENNESSEE SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. RAISED POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

ARS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER
LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL HANGING ON WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. IN THE MIDLEVELS SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS TAKING PLACE...WITH
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LEVELS IS ALSO STARTING TO ADVECT IN
DRIER AIR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING AREA WIDE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO HAVE SHAVED BACK THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY TO JUST THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS RUNNING
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI...WITH NOT MUCH ONGOING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DISSIPATING SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER.
TOWARDS DAWN STRATUS CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL
LIKELY COOL FURTHER ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OFF NORTHERLY
VEERING MORE EASTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN MODELS
STILL APPEAR BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
FORTY. TO NOTE THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER DURING THE PERIOD
AS ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE
TWENTY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FEATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY STARTING THURSDAY AND HOLD FAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION...MAKING FOR
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NUMEROUS EVENTS IN THE AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS.
A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY LIFR AT KMKL. CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. N TO NE WINDS
INCREASING SUNDAY TO NEAR 12 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS. AFTER
27/00Z...NE WINS DIMINISHING TO 6-10 KTS.

JCL/KRM

&&



&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 260201
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
901 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A
WEAKENING TREND AS THEY APPROACH TENNESSEE SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. RAISED POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER
LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL HANGING ON WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. IN THE MIDLEVELS SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS TAKING PLACE...WITH
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LEVELS IS ALSO STARTING TO ADVECT IN
DRIER AIR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING AREA WIDE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO HAVE SHAVED BACK THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY TO JUST THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS RUNNING
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI...WITH NOT MUCH ONGOING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DISSIPATING SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER.
TOWARDS DAWN STRATUS CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL
LIKELY COOL FURTHER ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OFF NORTHERLY
VEERING MORE EASTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN MODELS
STILL APPEAR BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
FORTY. TO NOTE THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER DURING THE PERIOD
AS ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE
TWENTY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FEATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY STARTING THURSDAY AND HOLD FAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION...MAKING FOR
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NUMEROUS EVENTS IN THE AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (26/00Z-27/00Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY LIFR AT KMKL. CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. N TO NE WINDS
INCREASING SUNDAY TO NEAR 12 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 260201
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
901 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S. AN AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS ABOUT TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF WEST TENNESSEE. THE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A
WEAKENING TREND AS THEY APPROACH TENNESSEE SO SEVERE WEATHER DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE A THREAT. RAISED POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER
LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL HANGING ON WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. IN THE MIDLEVELS SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS TAKING PLACE...WITH
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LEVELS IS ALSO STARTING TO ADVECT IN
DRIER AIR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING AREA WIDE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO HAVE SHAVED BACK THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY TO JUST THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS RUNNING
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI...WITH NOT MUCH ONGOING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DISSIPATING SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER.
TOWARDS DAWN STRATUS CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL
LIKELY COOL FURTHER ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OFF NORTHERLY
VEERING MORE EASTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN MODELS
STILL APPEAR BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
FORTY. TO NOTE THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER DURING THE PERIOD
AS ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE
TWENTY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FEATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY STARTING THURSDAY AND HOLD FAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION...MAKING FOR
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NUMEROUS EVENTS IN THE AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (26/00Z-27/00Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY LIFR AT KMKL. CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. N TO NE WINDS
INCREASING SUNDAY TO NEAR 12 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 252314 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER
LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL HANGING ON WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. IN THE MIDLEVELS SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS TAKING PLACE...WITH
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LEVELS IS ALSO STARTING TO ADVECT IN
DRIER AIR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING AREA WIDE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO HAVE SHAVED BACK THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY TO JUST THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS RUNNING
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI...WITH NOT MUCH ONGOING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DISSIPATING SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER.
TOWARDS DAWN STRATUS CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL
LIKELY COOL FURTHER ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OFF NORTHERLY
VEERING MORE EASTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN MODELS
STILL APPEAR BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
FORTY. TO NOTE THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER DURING THE PERIOD
AS ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE
TWENTY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FEATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY STARTING THURSDAY AND HOLD FAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION...MAKING FOR
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NUMEROUS EVENTS IN THE AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (26/00Z-27/00Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY LIFR AT KMKL. CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. N TO NE WINDS
INCREASING SUNDAY TO NEAR 12 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 252314 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER
LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL HANGING ON WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. IN THE MIDLEVELS SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS TAKING PLACE...WITH
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LEVELS IS ALSO STARTING TO ADVECT IN
DRIER AIR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING AREA WIDE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO HAVE SHAVED BACK THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY TO JUST THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS RUNNING
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI...WITH NOT MUCH ONGOING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DISSIPATING SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER.
TOWARDS DAWN STRATUS CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL
LIKELY COOL FURTHER ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OFF NORTHERLY
VEERING MORE EASTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN MODELS
STILL APPEAR BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
FORTY. TO NOTE THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER DURING THE PERIOD
AS ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE
TWENTY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FEATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY STARTING THURSDAY AND HOLD FAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION...MAKING FOR
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NUMEROUS EVENTS IN THE AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (26/00Z-27/00Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY LIFR AT KMKL. CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. N TO NE WINDS
INCREASING SUNDAY TO NEAR 12 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 252314 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER
LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL HANGING ON WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. IN THE MIDLEVELS SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS TAKING PLACE...WITH
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LEVELS IS ALSO STARTING TO ADVECT IN
DRIER AIR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING AREA WIDE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO HAVE SHAVED BACK THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY TO JUST THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS RUNNING
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI...WITH NOT MUCH ONGOING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DISSIPATING SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER.
TOWARDS DAWN STRATUS CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL
LIKELY COOL FURTHER ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OFF NORTHERLY
VEERING MORE EASTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN MODELS
STILL APPEAR BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
FORTY. TO NOTE THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER DURING THE PERIOD
AS ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE
TWENTY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FEATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY STARTING THURSDAY AND HOLD FAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION...MAKING FOR
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NUMEROUS EVENTS IN THE AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (26/00Z-27/00Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY LIFR AT KMKL. CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. N TO NE WINDS
INCREASING SUNDAY TO NEAR 12 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 252314 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
614 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER
LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL HANGING ON WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. IN THE MIDLEVELS SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS TAKING PLACE...WITH
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LEVELS IS ALSO STARTING TO ADVECT IN
DRIER AIR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING AREA WIDE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO HAVE SHAVED BACK THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY TO JUST THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS RUNNING
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI...WITH NOT MUCH ONGOING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DISSIPATING SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER.
TOWARDS DAWN STRATUS CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL
LIKELY COOL FURTHER ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OFF NORTHERLY
VEERING MORE EASTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN MODELS
STILL APPEAR BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
FORTY. TO NOTE THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER DURING THE PERIOD
AS ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE
TWENTY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FEATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY STARTING THURSDAY AND HOLD FAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION...MAKING FOR
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NUMEROUS EVENTS IN THE AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (26/00Z-27/00Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DIMINISHING WIND. A
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE
TONIGHT WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHERLY. CEILINGS LOWERING TO IFR
BEHIND THE FRONT...POSSIBLY LIFR AT KMKL. CEILINGS LIFTING TO MVFR
BY LATE MORNING SUNDAY THEN VFR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. N TO NE WINDS
INCREASING SUNDAY TO NEAR 12 KTS WITH GUSTS 18-20 KTS.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     GREENE-LAWRENCE-MISSISSIPPI-POINSETT-RANDOLPH.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...NONE.
TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DYER-LAKE-
     LAUDERDALE-OBION.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251935
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER
LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL HANGING ON WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. IN THE MIDLEVELS SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS TAKING PLACE...WITH
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LEVELS IS ALSO STARTING TO ADVECT IN
DRIER AIR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING AREA WIDE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO HAVE SHAVED BACK THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY TO JUST THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS RUNNING
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI...WITH NOT MUCH ONGOING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DISSIPATING SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER.
TOWARDS DAWN STRATUS CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL
LIKELY COOL FURTHER ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OFF NORTHERLY
VEERING MORE EASTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN MODELS
STILL APPEAR BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
FORTY. TO NOTE THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER DURING THE PERIOD
AS ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE
TWENTY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FEATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY STARTING THURSDAY AND HOLD FAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION...MAKING FOR
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NUMEROUS EVENTS IN THE AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

AFTER SOME INITIAL MVFR CIGS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF CYCLE
WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL SITES. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WESTERLY.

LIFR CIGS WILL AGAIN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
     DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251935
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER
LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL HANGING ON WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. IN THE MIDLEVELS SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS TAKING PLACE...WITH
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LEVELS IS ALSO STARTING TO ADVECT IN
DRIER AIR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING AREA WIDE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO HAVE SHAVED BACK THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY TO JUST THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS RUNNING
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI...WITH NOT MUCH ONGOING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DISSIPATING SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER.
TOWARDS DAWN STRATUS CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL
LIKELY COOL FURTHER ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OFF NORTHERLY
VEERING MORE EASTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN MODELS
STILL APPEAR BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
FORTY. TO NOTE THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER DURING THE PERIOD
AS ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE
TWENTY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FEATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY STARTING THURSDAY AND HOLD FAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION...MAKING FOR
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NUMEROUS EVENTS IN THE AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

AFTER SOME INITIAL MVFR CIGS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF CYCLE
WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL SITES. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WESTERLY.

LIFR CIGS WILL AGAIN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
     DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251935
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER
LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL HANGING ON WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. IN THE MIDLEVELS SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS TAKING PLACE...WITH
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LEVELS IS ALSO STARTING TO ADVECT IN
DRIER AIR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING AREA WIDE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO HAVE SHAVED BACK THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY TO JUST THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS RUNNING
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI...WITH NOT MUCH ONGOING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DISSIPATING SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER.
TOWARDS DAWN STRATUS CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL
LIKELY COOL FURTHER ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OFF NORTHERLY
VEERING MORE EASTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN MODELS
STILL APPEAR BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
FORTY. TO NOTE THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER DURING THE PERIOD
AS ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE
TWENTY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FEATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY STARTING THURSDAY AND HOLD FAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION...MAKING FOR
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NUMEROUS EVENTS IN THE AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

AFTER SOME INITIAL MVFR CIGS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF CYCLE
WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL SITES. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WESTERLY.

LIFR CIGS WILL AGAIN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
     DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251935
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
235 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY THE MIDSOUTH WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A SHEARING UPPER
LOW IN MISSOURI AND A DISTURBANCE RIDING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WAS STILL HANGING ON WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S. IN THE MIDLEVELS SIGNIFICANT DRYING IS TAKING PLACE...WITH
WATER VAPOR SHOWING THE UPPER LEVELS IS ALSO STARTING TO ADVECT IN
DRIER AIR. GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WERE OCCURRING AREA WIDE...WITH A
FEW LOCATIONS IN NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI
REACHING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. SO HAVE SHAVED BACK THE CURRENT
WIND ADVISORY TO JUST THESE AREAS. A TORNADO WATCH IS RUNNING
ALONG THE KY/TN BORDER AND JUST NORTH OF THE BOOTHEEL OF
MISSOURI...WITH NOT MUCH ONGOING CONVECTION. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE MID AND UPPER 70S AREAWIDE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...DISSIPATING SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL TRACK EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. A STRAY THUNDERSTORM
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTH AND EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DESCENDING COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL
REMAIN PARTLY CLOUDY THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER.
TOWARDS DAWN STRATUS CLOUDS MAY FORM IN THE POST FRONTAL AIRMASS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COOL THIS PERIOD AS THE
SOUTHERN FRINGES OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 60S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S SOUTH. NORTH MISSISSIPPI WILL
LIKELY COOL FURTHER ON MONDAY. WINDS WILL START OFF NORTHERLY
VEERING MORE EASTERLY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT CLOSED UPPER
LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...WITH RAIN CHANCES
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHWEST DELTA COUNTIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK EAST
OVER THE MIDSOUTH DURING MIDWEEK. RAIN CHANCES BETWEEN MODELS
STILL APPEAR BEST TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
FORTY. TO NOTE THE GFS RUNS HAVE BEEN TRENDING DRIER...SO FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT POPS TO CHANCE. ALSO REMOVED THUNDER DURING THE PERIOD
AS ANY INSTABILITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG AND SOUTH INTERSTATE
TWENTY CLOSER TO THE SURFACE FEATURE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOUT TEN DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO AGREE
THAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SLIDE INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY STARTING THURSDAY AND HOLD FAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER
AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REGION...MAKING FOR
VERY PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NUMEROUS EVENTS IN THE AREA.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

AFTER SOME INITIAL MVFR CIGS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF CYCLE
WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL SITES. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WESTERLY.

LIFR CIGS WILL AGAIN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
     DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251758
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1258 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR WIND ADVISORY AND CHANGES TO THE HWO.

DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR ALREADY STARTING TO WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO ADVISORY STRENGTH NORTH AND WEST OF A CLARKSDALE
MISSISSIPPI TO A PARIS TENNESSEE LINE BETWEEN THE 16 TO 18Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT STORM IN
MISSOURI SLIDES EAST.

ALSO MADE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST....ALONG WITH
EXPANDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER/STORM OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AT THIS TIME
NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE PLUME
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO... ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
09Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST KS...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS... SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH... A MARINE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS FREE OF
RAIN AS OF 0915Z / 415 AM CDT.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES... EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH... MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE DRY SLOT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
EXPECT INSUFFICIENT FORCING TO OVERCOME A RATHER STOUT CAP AT
900MB. THIS CAP WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE KY BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN
WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. OTHERWISE... DRY... BREEZY AND MILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WINDS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL A SOUTHERN BRANCH CUTOFF UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I40.

THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

AFTER SOME INITIAL MVFR CIGS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF CYCLE
WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL SITES. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WESTERLY.

LIFR CIGS WILL AGAIN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
     DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251758
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1258 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 912 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR WIND ADVISORY AND CHANGES TO THE HWO.

DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR ALREADY STARTING TO WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO ADVISORY STRENGTH NORTH AND WEST OF A CLARKSDALE
MISSISSIPPI TO A PARIS TENNESSEE LINE BETWEEN THE 16 TO 18Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT STORM IN
MISSOURI SLIDES EAST.

ALSO MADE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST....ALONG WITH
EXPANDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER/STORM OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AT THIS TIME
NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE PLUME
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO... ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
09Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST KS...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS... SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH... A MARINE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS FREE OF
RAIN AS OF 0915Z / 415 AM CDT.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES... EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH... MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE DRY SLOT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
EXPECT INSUFFICIENT FORCING TO OVERCOME A RATHER STOUT CAP AT
900MB. THIS CAP WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE KY BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN
WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. OTHERWISE... DRY... BREEZY AND MILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WINDS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL A SOUTHERN BRANCH CUTOFF UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I40.

THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

AFTER SOME INITIAL MVFR CIGS IN THE BEGINNING OF THE TAF CYCLE
WILL SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS EXPECTED BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL SITES. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING AND BECOMING WESTERLY.

LIFR CIGS WILL AGAIN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
BEHIND A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS WILL ALSO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY AT 10 KTS OR LESS.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
     DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251412
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
912 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR WIND ADVISORY AND CHANGES TO THE HWO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR ALREADY STARTING TO WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO ADVISORY STRENGTH NORTH AND WEST OF A CLARKSDALE
MISSISSIPPI TO A PARIS TENNESSEE LINE BETWEEN THE 16 TO 18Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT STORM IN
MISSOURI SLIDES EAST.

ALSO MADE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST....ALONG WITH
EXPANDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER/STORM OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AT THIS TIME
NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE PLUME
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO... ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
09Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST KS...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS... SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH... A MARINE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS FREE OF
RAIN AS OF 0915Z / 415 AM CDT.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES... EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH... MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE DRY SLOT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
EXPECT INSUFFICIENT FORCING TO OVERCOME A RATHER STOUT CAP AT
900MB. THIS CAP WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE KY BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN
WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. OTHERWISE... DRY... BREEZY AND MILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WINDS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL A SOUTHERN BRANCH CUTOFF UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I40.

THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

CIGS MAY DROP TEMPORARILY TO IFR/MVFR AT KMEM...KMKL...KTUP
THROUGH 16Z. MEANWHILE...KJBR WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH 15Z. AFTER
16Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR. SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
AROUND KTUP BETWEEN 21Z-00Z DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE ADDED
VCTS WORDING. STRONG SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z-00Z. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
00Z. DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO NW BETWEEN 8-12Z AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/MVFR DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL DUE TO CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
     DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251412
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
912 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR WIND ADVISORY AND CHANGES TO THE HWO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR ALREADY STARTING TO WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO ADVISORY STRENGTH NORTH AND WEST OF A CLARKSDALE
MISSISSIPPI TO A PARIS TENNESSEE LINE BETWEEN THE 16 TO 18Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT STORM IN
MISSOURI SLIDES EAST.

ALSO MADE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST....ALONG WITH
EXPANDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER/STORM OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AT THIS TIME
NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE PLUME
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO... ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
09Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST KS...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS... SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH... A MARINE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS FREE OF
RAIN AS OF 0915Z / 415 AM CDT.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES... EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH... MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE DRY SLOT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
EXPECT INSUFFICIENT FORCING TO OVERCOME A RATHER STOUT CAP AT
900MB. THIS CAP WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE KY BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN
WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. OTHERWISE... DRY... BREEZY AND MILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WINDS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL A SOUTHERN BRANCH CUTOFF UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I40.

THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

CIGS MAY DROP TEMPORARILY TO IFR/MVFR AT KMEM...KMKL...KTUP
THROUGH 16Z. MEANWHILE...KJBR WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH 15Z. AFTER
16Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR. SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
AROUND KTUP BETWEEN 21Z-00Z DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE ADDED
VCTS WORDING. STRONG SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z-00Z. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
00Z. DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO NW BETWEEN 8-12Z AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/MVFR DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL DUE TO CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
     DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251412
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
912 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR WIND ADVISORY AND CHANGES TO THE HWO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR ALREADY STARTING TO WORK INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
MIDSOUTH THIS MORNING...WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE TO ADVISORY STRENGTH NORTH AND WEST OF A CLARKSDALE
MISSISSIPPI TO A PARIS TENNESSEE LINE BETWEEN THE 16 TO 18Z TIME
FRAME. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE CURRENT STORM IN
MISSOURI SLIDES EAST.

ALSO MADE FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS TO MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPERATURES MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST....ALONG WITH
EXPANDING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A STRAY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWER/STORM OVER NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI. AT THIS TIME
NOTHING SEVERE IS EXPECTED.

JAB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 604 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE PLUME
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO... ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
09Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST KS...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS... SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH... A MARINE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS FREE OF
RAIN AS OF 0915Z / 415 AM CDT.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES... EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH... MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE DRY SLOT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
EXPECT INSUFFICIENT FORCING TO OVERCOME A RATHER STOUT CAP AT
900MB. THIS CAP WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE KY BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN
WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. OTHERWISE... DRY... BREEZY AND MILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WINDS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL A SOUTHERN BRANCH CUTOFF UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I40.

THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

CIGS MAY DROP TEMPORARILY TO IFR/MVFR AT KMEM...KMKL...KTUP
THROUGH 16Z. MEANWHILE...KJBR WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH 15Z. AFTER
16Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR. SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
AROUND KTUP BETWEEN 21Z-00Z DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE ADDED
VCTS WORDING. STRONG SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z-00Z. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
00Z. DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO NW BETWEEN 8-12Z AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/MVFR DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL DUE TO CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT.

KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CLAY-CRAIGHEAD-
     CRITTENDEN-CROSS-GREENE-LAWRENCE-LEE AR-MISSISSIPPI-
     PHILLIPS-POINSETT-RANDOLPH-ST. FRANCIS.

MO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR DUNKLIN-PEMISCOT.

MS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR COAHOMA-DESOTO-
     TUNICA.

TN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CARROLL-CROCKETT-
     DYER-FAYETTE-GIBSON-HAYWOOD-HENRY-LAKE-LAUDERDALE-MADISON-
     OBION-SHELBY-TIPTON-WEAKLEY.

&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251104
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
604 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE PLUME
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO... ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
09Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST KS...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS... SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH... A MARINE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS FREE OF
RAIN AS OF 0915Z / 415 AM CDT.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES... EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH... MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE DRY SLOT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
EXPECT INSUFFICIENT FORCING TO OVERCOME A RATHER STOUT CAP AT
900MB. THIS CAP WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE KY BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN
WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. OTHERWISE... DRY... BREEZY AND MILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WINDS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL A SOUTHERN BRANCH CUTOFF UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I40.

THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

CIGS MAY DROP TEMPORARILY TO IFR/MVFR AT KMEM...KMKL...KTUP
THROUGH 16Z. MEANWHILE...KJBR WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH 15Z. AFTER
16Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR. SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
AROUND KTUP BETWEEN 21Z-00Z DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE ADDED
VCTS WORDING. STRONG SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z-00Z. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
00Z. DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO NW BETWEEN 8-12Z AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/MVFR DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL DUE TO CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT.

KRM

&&




&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251104
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
604 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE PLUME
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO... ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
09Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST KS...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS... SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH... A MARINE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS FREE OF
RAIN AS OF 0915Z / 415 AM CDT.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES... EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH... MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE DRY SLOT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
EXPECT INSUFFICIENT FORCING TO OVERCOME A RATHER STOUT CAP AT
900MB. THIS CAP WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE KY BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN
WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. OTHERWISE... DRY... BREEZY AND MILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WINDS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL A SOUTHERN BRANCH CUTOFF UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I40.

THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

CIGS MAY DROP TEMPORARILY TO IFR/MVFR AT KMEM...KMKL...KTUP
THROUGH 16Z. MEANWHILE...KJBR WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH 15Z. AFTER
16Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR. SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
AROUND KTUP BETWEEN 21Z-00Z DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE ADDED
VCTS WORDING. STRONG SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z-00Z. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
00Z. DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO NW BETWEEN 8-12Z AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/MVFR DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL DUE TO CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT.

KRM

&&




&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 251104
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
604 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE PLUME
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO... ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
09Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST KS...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS... SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH... A MARINE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS FREE OF
RAIN AS OF 0915Z / 415 AM CDT.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES... EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH... MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE DRY SLOT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
EXPECT INSUFFICIENT FORCING TO OVERCOME A RATHER STOUT CAP AT
900MB. THIS CAP WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE KY BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN
WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. OTHERWISE... DRY... BREEZY AND MILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WINDS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL A SOUTHERN BRANCH CUTOFF UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I40.

THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

CIGS MAY DROP TEMPORARILY TO IFR/MVFR AT KMEM...KMKL...KTUP
THROUGH 16Z. MEANWHILE...KJBR WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH 15Z. AFTER
16Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR. SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
AROUND KTUP BETWEEN 21Z-00Z DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE ADDED
VCTS WORDING. STRONG SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z-00Z. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
00Z. DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO NW BETWEEN 8-12Z AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/MVFR DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL DUE TO CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT.

KRM

&&




&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251104
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
604 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015/

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE PLUME
OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL
MEXICO... ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...
09Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST KS...WITH A
WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS... SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH... A MARINE WARM FRONT WAS
LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS FREE OF
RAIN AS OF 0915Z / 415 AM CDT.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES... EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH... MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE DRY SLOT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
EXPECT INSUFFICIENT FORCING TO OVERCOME A RATHER STOUT CAP AT
900MB. THIS CAP WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE KY BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN
WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. OTHERWISE... DRY... BREEZY AND MILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WINDS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL A SOUTHERN BRANCH CUTOFF UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I40.

THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

CIGS MAY DROP TEMPORARILY TO IFR/MVFR AT KMEM...KMKL...KTUP
THROUGH 16Z. MEANWHILE...KJBR WILL REMAIN IFR THROUGH 15Z. AFTER
16Z...ALL TAF SITES WILL BE VFR. SOME TSRA DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR
AROUND KTUP BETWEEN 21Z-00Z DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. HAVE ADDED
VCTS WORDING. STRONG SW WINDS OF 15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS WILL
OCCUR BETWEEN 15Z-00Z. SPEEDS WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER
00Z. DIRECTION WILL CHANGE TO NW BETWEEN 8-12Z AS THE COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH. CONDITIONS COULD BRIEFLY DROP TO IFR/MVFR DURING
THIS TIME AS WELL DUE TO CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT.

KRM

&&




&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 250932
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE
PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO... ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE... 09Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST
KS...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS...
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH... A MARINE WARM
FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS
FREE OF RAIN AS OF 0915Z / 415 AM CDT.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES... EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH... MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE DRY SLOT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
EXPECT INSUFFICIENT FORCING TO OVERCOME A RATHER STOUT CAP AT
900MB. THIS CAP WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE KY BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN
WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. OTHERWISE... DRY... BREEZY AND MILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WINDS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL A SOUTHERN BRANCH CUTOFF UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I40.

THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

CEILINGS FREQUENTLY IFR OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SE WINDS CONTINUING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS
AND A REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY
MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISHING SATURDAY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

JCL/KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250932
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE
PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO... ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE... 09Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST
KS...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS...
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH... A MARINE WARM
FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS
FREE OF RAIN AS OF 0915Z / 415 AM CDT.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES... EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH... MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE DRY SLOT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
EXPECT INSUFFICIENT FORCING TO OVERCOME A RATHER STOUT CAP AT
900MB. THIS CAP WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE KY BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN
WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. OTHERWISE... DRY... BREEZY AND MILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WINDS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL A SOUTHERN BRANCH CUTOFF UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I40.

THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

CEILINGS FREQUENTLY IFR OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SE WINDS CONTINUING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS
AND A REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY
MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISHING SATURDAY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

JCL/KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 250932
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE
PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO... ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE... 09Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST
KS...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS...
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH... A MARINE WARM
FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS
FREE OF RAIN AS OF 0915Z / 415 AM CDT.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES... EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH... MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE DRY SLOT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
EXPECT INSUFFICIENT FORCING TO OVERCOME A RATHER STOUT CAP AT
900MB. THIS CAP WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE KY BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN
WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. OTHERWISE... DRY... BREEZY AND MILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WINDS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL A SOUTHERN BRANCH CUTOFF UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I40.

THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

CEILINGS FREQUENTLY IFR OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SE WINDS CONTINUING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS
AND A REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY
MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISHING SATURDAY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

JCL/KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250932
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
432 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A CLOSED UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST KS. AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW...A LARGE
PLUME OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM
CENTRAL MEXICO... ACROSS TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AT THE
SURFACE... 09Z SURFACE MAP SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHEAST
KS...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR ST LOUIS...
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER. FURTHER SOUTH... A MARINE WARM
FRONT WAS LOCATED ALONG THE I20 CORRIDOR OF MS. THE MIDSOUTH WAS
FREE OF RAIN AS OF 0915Z / 415 AM CDT.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES... EXPECT THE UPPER LOW TO LIFT EAST
INTO THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN WARM FRONT. FURTHER SOUTH... MODEL SOLUTIONS
VARY WITH RESPECT TO RAIN CHANCES IN THE DRY SLOT OVER THE MIDSOUTH.
SURFACE WINDS SHOULD VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE MID TO LATE
MORNING. EVEN WITH THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS...
EXPECT INSUFFICIENT FORCING TO OVERCOME A RATHER STOUT CAP AT
900MB. THIS CAP WILL BE WEAKER FURTHER NORTH TOWARD THE KY BORDER.
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS AND SLIGHT RISK SEVERE OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST TN THROUGH MIDDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LIMITED GIVEN
WEAKER CAPPING AND BETTER POSITIONED WARM FRONT IN THE OHIO
VALLEY. OTHERWISE... DRY... BREEZY AND MILD OVER THE MIDSOUTH
TODAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR WINDS FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY.

DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL A SOUTHERN BRANCH CUTOFF UPPER
LOW PASSES THROUGH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH BEST RAIN CHANCES SOUTH OF I40.

THE LATTER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK APPEARS DRY...WITH WEAK NORTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONING TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL
VALUES BY NEXT WEEKEND.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

CEILINGS FREQUENTLY IFR OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SE WINDS CONTINUING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS
AND A REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY
MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISHING SATURDAY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

JCL/KRM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 250520
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 50S. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING. MADE CHANGES TO LOW
TEMPERATURES AND MENTIONED ONLY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CURRENT WARM FRONT ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND WESTERN MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE FORTY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRING OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WITH UP TO TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A 80KT 500MB JET PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE...TO POTENTIALLY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE DELTA.
DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN...SLOWLY ERODING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/FUEL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS. THIS
STRONG MIXING WILL ALSO SHOOT HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST BEFORE THE CIN INCREASES UNDER CAPE AMOUNTS NEAR 2000
J/KG...BUT THE LOW LEVEL TRIGGER/FORCING IS WEAK. THE THREAT IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL...AND FOR THIS REASON THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
HAVE BEEN LEFT IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY. TOMORROW NIGHT A STRAY
SHOWER MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH...WITH
WINDS VEERING NORTH AND TAPERING OFF.

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD INTO
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EURO AND GFS SLIDE THE NEXT UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...WITH BETTER TIMING CONSISTENCY.
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S FOR SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AND BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF...THOUGH SKIES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL SHIFT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK. IF THIS HOLDS...A DRY
AND WARM WEEKEND WOULD RESULT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

CEILINGS FREQUENTLY IFR OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SE WINDS CONTINUING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS
AND A REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY
MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISHING SATURDAY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

JCL/KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250520
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1220 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 50S. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING. MADE CHANGES TO LOW
TEMPERATURES AND MENTIONED ONLY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CURRENT WARM FRONT ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND WESTERN MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE FORTY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRING OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WITH UP TO TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A 80KT 500MB JET PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE...TO POTENTIALLY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE DELTA.
DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN...SLOWLY ERODING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/FUEL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS. THIS
STRONG MIXING WILL ALSO SHOOT HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST BEFORE THE CIN INCREASES UNDER CAPE AMOUNTS NEAR 2000
J/KG...BUT THE LOW LEVEL TRIGGER/FORCING IS WEAK. THE THREAT IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL...AND FOR THIS REASON THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
HAVE BEEN LEFT IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY. TOMORROW NIGHT A STRAY
SHOWER MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH...WITH
WINDS VEERING NORTH AND TAPERING OFF.

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD INTO
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EURO AND GFS SLIDE THE NEXT UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...WITH BETTER TIMING CONSISTENCY.
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S FOR SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AND BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF...THOUGH SKIES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL SHIFT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK. IF THIS HOLDS...A DRY
AND WARM WEEKEND WOULD RESULT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

CEILINGS FREQUENTLY IFR OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SE WINDS CONTINUING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY
AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS
AND A REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY
MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY SATURDAY.

WINDS DIMINISHING SATURDAY EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

JCL/KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 250218
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING. MADE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES AND
MENTIONED ONLY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CURRENT WARM FRONT ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND WESTERN MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE FORTY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRING OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WITH UP TO TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A 80KT 500MB JET PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE...TO POTENTIALLY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE DELTA.
DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN...SLOWLY ERODING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/FUEL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS. THIS
STRONG MIXING WILL ALSO SHOOT HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST BEFORE THE CIN INCREASES UNDER CAPE AMOUNTS NEAR 2000
J/KG...BUT THE LOW LEVEL TRIGGER/FORCING IS WEAK. THE THREAT IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL...AND FOR THIS REASON THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
HAVE BEEN LEFT IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY. TOMORROW NIGHT A STRAY
SHOWER MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH...WITH
WINDS VEERING NORTH AND TAPERING OFF.

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD INTO
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EURO AND GFS SLIDE THE NEXT UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...WITH BETTER TIMING CONSISTENCY.
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S FOR SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AND BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF...THOUGH SKIES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL SHIFT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK. IF THIS HOLDS...A DRY
AND WARM WEEKEND WOULD RESULT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (25/00Z-26/00Z)

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS
AND A REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY
MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY SATURDAY.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 250218
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
918 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE CLOUDY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE 50S. A LARGE AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING. MADE CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES AND
MENTIONED ONLY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CURRENT WARM FRONT ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND WESTERN MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE FORTY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRING OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WITH UP TO TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A 80KT 500MB JET PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE...TO POTENTIALLY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE DELTA.
DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN...SLOWLY ERODING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/FUEL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS. THIS
STRONG MIXING WILL ALSO SHOOT HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST BEFORE THE CIN INCREASES UNDER CAPE AMOUNTS NEAR 2000
J/KG...BUT THE LOW LEVEL TRIGGER/FORCING IS WEAK. THE THREAT IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL...AND FOR THIS REASON THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
HAVE BEEN LEFT IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY. TOMORROW NIGHT A STRAY
SHOWER MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH...WITH
WINDS VEERING NORTH AND TAPERING OFF.

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD INTO
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EURO AND GFS SLIDE THE NEXT UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...WITH BETTER TIMING CONSISTENCY.
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S FOR SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AND BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF...THOUGH SKIES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL SHIFT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK. IF THIS HOLDS...A DRY
AND WARM WEEKEND WOULD RESULT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (25/00Z-26/00Z)

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS
AND A REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY
MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY SATURDAY.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 242350 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
650 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 237 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CURRENT WARM FRONT ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND WESTERN MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE FORTY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRING OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WITH UP TO TWO
INCHES POSSIBLE.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A 80KT 500MB JET PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE...TO POTENTIALLY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE DELTA.
DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN...SLOWLY ERODING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/FUEL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS. THIS
STRONG MIXING WILL ALSO SHOOT HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST BEFORE THE CIN INCREASES UNDER CAPE AMOUNTS NEAR 2000
J/KG...BUT THE LOWL LEVEL TRIGGER/FORCING IS WEAK. THE THREAT IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL...AND FOR THIS REASON THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
HAVE BEEN LEFT IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY. TOMORROW NIGHT A STRAY
SHOWER MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH...WITH
WINDS VEERING NORTH AND TAPERING OFF.

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD INTO
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EURO AND GFS SLIDE THE NEXT UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...WITH BETTER TIMING CONSISTENCY.
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S FOR SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AND BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF...THOUGH SKIES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL SHIFT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK. IF THIS HOLDS...A DRY
AND WARM WEEKEND WOULD RESULT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF CYCLE (25/00Z-26/00Z)

CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND OCCASIONALLY TO IFR OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS
BECOMING WIDESPREAD ALONG WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS
AND A REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER SATURDAY
MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS
SATURDAY MORNING. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS BECOMING STRONG AND
GUSTY SATURDAY.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 241937
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
237 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CURRENT WARM FRONT ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND WESTERN MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE FORTY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRING OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WITH UP TO
TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A 80KT 500MB JET PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE...TO POTENTIALLY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE DELTA.
DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN...SLOWLY ERODING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/FUEL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS. THIS
STRONG MIXING WILL ALSO SHOOT HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST BEFORE THE CIN INCREASES UNDER CAPE AMOUNTS NEAR 2000
J/KG...BUT THE LOWL LEVEL TRIGGER/FORCING IS WEAK. THE THREAT IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL...AND FOR THIS REASON THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
HAVE BEEN LEFT IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY. TOMORROW NIGHT A STRAY
SHOWER MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH...WITH
WINDS VEERING NORTH AND TAPERING OFF.

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD INTO
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EURO AND GFS SLIDE THE NEXT UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...WITH BETTER TIMING CONSISTENCY.
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S FOR SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AND BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF...THOUGH SKIES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL SHIFT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK. IF THIS HOLDS...A DRY
AND WARM WEEKEND WOULD RESULT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR LATE THIS
EVENING AT THE TAF SITES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS
RETURNING AND A REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS SATURDAY MORNING.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 241937
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
237 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...CURRENT WARM FRONT ACROSS EAST TEXAS
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PUSH NORTH THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH
TONIGHT. ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION TRACKING ACROSS THE OZARKS
AND WESTERN MIDSOUTH WILL CONTINUE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. A
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE FORTY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES. MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT CONCERNING THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCURRING OVER NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WITH UP TO
TWO INCHES POSSIBLE.

DURING THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE A 80KT 500MB JET PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST.
LOW LEVEL SOUTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE...TO POTENTIALLY WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER THE DELTA.
DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL WORK ITS WAY DOWN...SLOWLY ERODING
THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/FUEL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS. THIS
STRONG MIXING WILL ALSO SHOOT HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND MID 80S
BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. THE MAIN
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE NORTH
AND EAST BEFORE THE CIN INCREASES UNDER CAPE AMOUNTS NEAR 2000
J/KG...BUT THE LOWL LEVEL TRIGGER/FORCING IS WEAK. THE THREAT IS
HIGHLY CONDITIONAL...AND FOR THIS REASON THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
HAVE BEEN LEFT IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER UP IN THE OHIO VALLEY. TOMORROW NIGHT A STRAY
SHOWER MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT AS IT SLIPS THROUGH...WITH
WINDS VEERING NORTH AND TAPERING OFF.

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD INTO
THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BELOW NORMAL...BUT WILL
REMAIN MILD WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... NOT MUCH CHANGE NEEDED DURING THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. THE EURO AND GFS SLIDE THE NEXT UPPER LOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...WITH BETTER TIMING CONSISTENCY.
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE MIDSOUTH COOL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH LIFT FOR SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS. HIGHS ON
TUESDAY MAY NOT CLIMB OUT OF THE 50S FOR SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS.
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING AND BECOME AN OPEN
WAVE ON WEDNESDAY WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF...THOUGH SKIES WILL
LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY.

EXTENDED PERIOD...HIGH PRESSURE THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN WILL SHIFT
INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LATE NEXT WEEK. IF THIS HOLDS...A DRY
AND WARM WEEKEND WOULD RESULT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR LATE THIS
EVENING AT THE TAF SITES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS
RETURNING AND A REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS SATURDAY MORNING.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 241756
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL SEE HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDED
FROM MEXICO...ACROSS TX...INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. BY LATE AFTERNOON...60S DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF NORTH MS...INTO THE EASTERN AR DELTA.
WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT RATHER DIFFUSE UNDER A CONTINUED VEIL
OF CIRROSTRATUS...APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WITH THE ARRIVAL A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER AR. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALLY LACKLUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN INCREASING NORTH
OF I40 AFTER 3 AM SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW UPDRAFTS WILL
LIKELY BE ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED LAYER DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT...
BUT MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE CONCURRENT WITH THE ARRIVAL NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE BASED CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO...SATURDAY MIDMORNING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL COME DOWN TO TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF THE LOW LEVEL DRYLINE WITH STORMS BECOMING ROOTED
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE TN RIVER VALLEY
PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON..

A SPLIT UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGING OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
UNDERCUT BY AN APPROACHING CLOSED SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW OVER TX.
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES TO THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY
GIVEN THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR LATE THIS
EVENING AT THE TAF SITES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS
RETURNING AND A REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS SATURDAY MORNING.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 241756
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL SEE HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDED
FROM MEXICO...ACROSS TX...INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. BY LATE AFTERNOON...60S DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF NORTH MS...INTO THE EASTERN AR DELTA.
WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT RATHER DIFFUSE UNDER A CONTINUED VEIL
OF CIRROSTRATUS...APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WITH THE ARRIVAL A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER AR. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALLY LACKLUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN INCREASING NORTH
OF I40 AFTER 3 AM SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW UPDRAFTS WILL
LIKELY BE ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED LAYER DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT...
BUT MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE CONCURRENT WITH THE ARRIVAL NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE BASED CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO...SATURDAY MIDMORNING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL COME DOWN TO TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF THE LOW LEVEL DRYLINE WITH STORMS BECOMING ROOTED
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE TN RIVER VALLEY
PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON..

A SPLIT UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGING OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
UNDERCUT BY AN APPROACHING CLOSED SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW OVER TX.
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES TO THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY
GIVEN THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR LATE THIS
EVENING AT THE TAF SITES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS
RETURNING AND A REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS SATURDAY MORNING.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 241756
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL SEE HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDED
FROM MEXICO...ACROSS TX...INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. BY LATE AFTERNOON...60S DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF NORTH MS...INTO THE EASTERN AR DELTA.
WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT RATHER DIFFUSE UNDER A CONTINUED VEIL
OF CIRROSTRATUS...APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WITH THE ARRIVAL A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER AR. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALLY LACKLUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN INCREASING NORTH
OF I40 AFTER 3 AM SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW UPDRAFTS WILL
LIKELY BE ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED LAYER DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT...
BUT MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE CONCURRENT WITH THE ARRIVAL NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE BASED CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO...SATURDAY MIDMORNING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL COME DOWN TO TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF THE LOW LEVEL DRYLINE WITH STORMS BECOMING ROOTED
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE TN RIVER VALLEY
PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON..

A SPLIT UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGING OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
UNDERCUT BY AN APPROACHING CLOSED SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW OVER TX.
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES TO THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY
GIVEN THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR LATE THIS
EVENING AT THE TAF SITES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS
RETURNING AND A REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS SATURDAY MORNING.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 241756
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1256 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

UPDATED FOR THE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL SEE HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDED
FROM MEXICO...ACROSS TX...INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. BY LATE AFTERNOON...60S DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF NORTH MS...INTO THE EASTERN AR DELTA.
WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT RATHER DIFFUSE UNDER A CONTINUED VEIL
OF CIRROSTRATUS...APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WITH THE ARRIVAL A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER AR. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALLY LACKLUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN INCREASING NORTH
OF I40 AFTER 3 AM SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW UPDRAFTS WILL
LIKELY BE ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED LAYER DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT...
BUT MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE CONCURRENT WITH THE ARRIVAL NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE BASED CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO...SATURDAY MIDMORNING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL COME DOWN TO TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF THE LOW LEVEL DRYLINE WITH STORMS BECOMING ROOTED
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE TN RIVER VALLEY
PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON..

A SPLIT UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGING OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
UNDERCUT BY AN APPROACHING CLOSED SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW OVER TX.
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES TO THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY
GIVEN THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR LATE THIS
EVENING AT THE TAF SITES AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY SOUTHERLY LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEEDS AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS
OF SATURDAY. SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT WITH VFR CIGS
RETURNING AND A REDUCTION IN STORM CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST LATER
SATURDAY MORNING AS A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT SURGES INTO THE REGION.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY AND WESTERLY AND
INCREASE IN SPEEDS SATURDAY MORNING.

JLH

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 241106
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
606 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL SEE HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDED
FROM MEXICO...ACROSS TX...INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. BY LATE AFTERNOON...60S DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF NORTH MS...INTO THE EASTERN AR DELTA.
WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT RATHER DIFFUSE UNDER A CONTINUED VEIL
OF CIRROSTRATUS...APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WITH THE ARRIVAL A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER AR. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALLY LACKLUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN INCREASING NORTH
OF I40 AFTER 3 AM SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW UPDRAFTS WILL
LIKELY BE ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED LAYER DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT...
BUT MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE CONCURRENT WITH THE ARRIVAL NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE BASED CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO...SATURDAY MIDMORNING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL COME DOWN TO TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF THE LOW LEVEL DRYLINE WITH STORMS BECOMING ROOTED
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE TN RIVER VALLEY
PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON..

A SPLIT UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGING OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
UNDERCUT BY AN APPROACHING CLOSED SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW OVER TX.
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES TO THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY
GIVEN THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MS RIVER BETWEEN 15-23Z. WIDESPREAD SHRAS AND TSRAS
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
DURING THIS TIME. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BEGINNING
FIRST AT KJBR...THEN KMEM AND KMKL BETWEEN 7-12Z. SE WINDS AROUND
6-10KTS WILL BECOME S AT 12-15 KTS BETWEEN 8-12Z.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 241106
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
606 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015/

FOLLOWING SEVERAL DAYS OF COOL AND DRY WEATHER...THE MIDSOUTH
WILL SEE HUMIDITY AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

EARLY MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDED
FROM MEXICO...ACROSS TX...INTO THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY.

AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON...LOW
LEVEL RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE. BY LATE AFTERNOON...60S DEWPOINTS
ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST OF NORTH MS...INTO THE EASTERN AR DELTA.
WITH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT RATHER DIFFUSE UNDER A CONTINUED VEIL
OF CIRROSTRATUS...APPRECIABLE THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES MAY HOLD OFF
UNTIL THIS EVENING...WITH THE ARRIVAL A DISTINCT SHORTWAVE
EMBEDDED IN DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER AR. HAVE LOWERED RAIN CHANCES
TODAY...PARTICULARLY THIS MORNING.

INITIALLY LACKLUSTER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BEGIN INCREASING NORTH
OF I40 AFTER 3 AM SATURDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW UPDRAFTS WILL
LIKELY BE ROOTED IN AN ELEVATED LAYER DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT...
BUT MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BY MIDMORNING
SATURDAY. THIS WILL BE CONCURRENT WITH THE ARRIVAL NEARLY DRY
ADIABATIC MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SURFACE BASED CAPES IN EXCESS
OF 3000 J/KG. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS BEST TORNADO POTENTIAL
WILL BE JUST EAST OF THE MEMPHIS METRO...SATURDAY MIDMORNING
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. IT WILL COME DOWN TO TIMING AND
POSITIONING OF THE LOW LEVEL DRYLINE WITH STORMS BECOMING ROOTED
IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. STORMS SHOULD EXIT THE TN RIVER VALLEY
PORTION OF THE MIDSOUTH BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON..

A SPLIT UPPER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERN BRANCH RIDGING OVER THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY
UNDERCUT BY AN APPROACHING CLOSED SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW OVER TX.
THIS LATTER FEATURE WILL RETURN RAIN CHANCES TO THE MIDSOUTH
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...THOUGH TIMING MAY BE A LITTLE MORE TRICKY
GIVEN THIS FEATURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT CUTOFF FROM STRONGER FLOW
ALOFT.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. SCATTERED CONVECTION
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN PUSHING TO AREAS ALONG AND WEST
OF THE MS RIVER BETWEEN 15-23Z. WIDESPREAD SHRAS AND TSRAS
EXPECTED DURING THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE MIDSOUTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR
DURING THIS TIME. CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EASTWARD BEGINNING
FIRST AT KJBR...THEN KMEM AND KMKL BETWEEN 7-12Z. SE WINDS AROUND
6-10KTS WILL BECOME S AT 12-15 KTS BETWEEN 8-12Z.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





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