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000
FXUS64 KMEG 260244
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
944 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to lower pops and adjust low temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The Mid South remains positioned along the northern periphery of a
broad mid level ridge centered along the Gulf Coast. Although
there is no discernable shortwave noted between the departing wave
and one in Oklahoma...there may be subtle disturbances which may
interact with the unstable airmass in place to trigger isolated
showers and thunderstorms overnight. Maintained slight chance pops
areawide...but most locations should remain dry for the remainder
of the night.

Low temperatures should remain in the middle 60s to lower 70s.
Updated products have been sent.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms are ongoing across the MidSouth...focused along an
outflow boundary from storms in northeast Arkansas earlier today.
Expect these storms to gradually shift to the Southeast...likely
maintaining their strength through sunset...then gradually
weakening. Locally heavy rain...up to an inch per hour could
result in flooding. Otherwise...sub severe hail and wind up to 45
mph is possible.

Nothing has really changed across the MidSouth over the last 36
hour or longer...and nothing is really expected over the next two
days or so. Surface high pressure will remain centered along or
just off the Southeastern Coast of the US with a surface low over
the Plains. Both features will gradually shift to the East.
aloft...we will transition from weak Southwest flow to only
slightly stronger South or SSW flow. Dew points will remain in the
upper 60s to low 70s resulting in enhanced afternoon instability.
The wildcard will continue to be the amount of sunshine across the
MidSouth. Any breaks in the cloud cover can set up thermal
boundaries that act as a focus for thunderstorm development...and
obviously would maximize instability.

Friday...a broad trough will shift across the central plains. A
weak shortwave may attain a negative tilt Friday afternoon
shifting across the Mississippi River late Friday. This will
likely be our highest chance of precipitation...and maybe the
greatest threat for severe storms. However...instability may not
be maximized when the dynamic energy swings out of the plains
Friday night. Will maintain a low confidence for strong storms in
the HWO.

Highs for the remainder of the week should be mostly in the
80s...although cloud cover could keep temperatures a bit cooler if
there are few or no breaks.

Rain chances should diminish over the weekend as the midlevel
trough shifts off to the East and Southwest flow returns to the
MidSouth. Weak surface high will build across the area...and a
weak shortwave ridge will shift out of the plains Sunday boosting
temperatures a bit.

Weak...generally zonal flow is expected early next week. Expect
warm temperatures. Highs could approach 90 degrees. Only low
chance to slight chance thunderstorm coverage is expected.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR and MVFR conditions are expected over the next 24-hr TAF
period. The complex of thunderstorms that previously impacted our
region is close to exiting the County Warning Area leaving only
KTUP with a mention of VCTS through 03Z. Winds between 06-10KTs
from the south should hinder thick fog development even though
there`s significant moisture near the surface. CIGS may lower to
MVFR levels early tomorrow at all 4 TAF sites. TS could be an
issue for a few sites tomorrow but there`s not enough confidence
to add a mention just yet.

JPM3

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 252356
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
656 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 0Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Thunderstorms are ongoing across the MidSouth...focused along an
outflow boundary from storms in northeast Arkansas earlier today.
Expect these storms to gradually shift to the Southeast...likely
maintaining their strength through sunset...then gradually
weakening. Locally heavy rain...up to an inch per hour could
result in flooding. Otherwise...sub severe hail and wind up to 45
mph is possible.

Nothing has really changed across the MidSouth over the last 36
hour or longer...and nothing is really expected over the next two
days or so. Surface high pressure will remain centered along or
just off the Southeastern Coast of the US with a surface low over
the Plains. Both features will gradually shift to the East.
aloft...we will transition from weak Southwest flow to only
slightly stronger South or SSW flow. Dew points will remain in the
upper 60s to low 70s resulting in enhanced afternoon instability.
The wildcard will continue to be the amount of sunshine across the
MidSouth. Any breaks in the cloud cover can set up thermal
boundaries that act as a focus for thunderstorm development...and
obviously would maximize instability.

Friday...a broad trough will shift across the central plains. A
weak shortwave may attain a negative tilt Friday afternoon
shifting across the Mississippi River late Friday. This will
likely be our highest chance of precipitation...and maybe the
greatest threat for severe storms. However...instability may not
be maximized when the dynamic energy swings out of the plains
Friday night. Will maintain a low confidence for strong storms in
the HWO.

Highs for the remainder of the week should be mostly in the
80s...although cloud cover could keep temperatures a bit cooler if
there are few or no breaks.

Rain chances should diminish over the weekend as the midlevel
trough shifts off to the East and Southwest flow returns to the
MidSouth. Weak surface high will build across the area...and a
weak shortwave ridge will shift out of the plains Sunday boosting
temperatures a bit.

Weak...generally zonal flow is expected early next week. Expect
warm temperatures. Highs could approach 90 degrees. Only low
chance to slight chance thunderstorm coverage is expected.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR and MVFR conditions are expected over the next 24-hr TAF
period. The complex of thunderstorms that previously impacted our
region is close to exiting the County Warning Area leaving only
KTUP with a mention of VCTS through 03Z. Winds between 06-10KTs
from the south should hinder thick fog development even though
there`s significant moisture near the surface. CIGS may lower to
MVFR levels early tomorrow at all 4 TAF sites. TS could be an
issue for a few sites tomorrow but there`s not enough confidence
to add a mention just yet.

JPM3

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 251445
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
945 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Adjusted pops based on radar and current observations. East
Arkansas may struggle to climb into the lower 80s due to cloud
cover and rainfall. Northeast Mississippi may approach 90 degrees
this afternoon. High resolution short term model guidance isn`t as
bullish with redevelopment of thunderstorms this afternoon...but
confidence is not high that we will be rain free after the ongoing
batch. In fact storms in West Arkansas suggest otherwise. New
Zones already sent.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 640 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

Skies are partly cloudy across much of the forecast area early
this morning with temperatures mainly in the 60s. There is
currently no rain over the forecast area but an area of
thunderstorms is moving across eastern Oklahoma and into western
Arkansas. These thunderstorms develop Tuesday night ahead of a
nearly stationary boundary which extends from eastern South Dakota
through extreme eastern Colorado and into eastern New Mexico.
These thunderstorms should continue to move east this morning and
eventually make their way into the forecast area. Temperatures
will remain on the warm side today with highs in the mid to upper
80s.

By tonight...more thunderstorms should develop just ahead of the
front and start to move east. Thunderstorm coverage over the
forecast area will be less than during the day but can`t rule out
isolated thunderstorms developing during the evening. Temperatures
will remain warm with lows Thursday morning in the mid 60s to
lower 70s.

Thursday looks to be somewhat similar to today as what remains of
the thunderstorms that develop tonight make their way into the
forecast area. Temperatures will also be similar to today with
highs in the mid to upper 80s. Models show a better chance of
thunderstorms developing near the forecast area Thursday night and
Friday as the frontal boundary moves a little further east.

With the frontal boundary remaining well west of the forecast area
there is not much chance of widespread severe weather for today
through Friday. An isolated severe thunderstorm is not out of the
question but the key word here is isolated.

During the holiday weekend, little change in the weather pattern
is expected as the frontal boundary will remain over the central
and southern plains. This will mean a chance of thunderstorms
during the day from Saturday through Tuesday. It does appear that
there will be mainly dry weather during the evening and overnight
hours although an isolated thunderstorm can`t be ruled out.
Temperatures will remain warm during the holiday weekend with
highs in the mid to upper 80s and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conds prevail across the region. A brief period of MVFR cigs
possible at KJBR and KMEM this morning. Timing on next round of
tsras from late this morning into the afternoon looks good with
disturbance over western AR tracking east. Activity should remain
north of KTUP. Most guidance indicates a relatively quiet
overnight attm. South winds will increase to 10-12 kts...higher
gusts at JBR and MEM. Stronger gusts possible during storms. Winds
will diminish this evening.

SJM

&&


.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 250432
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1132 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 06z aviation discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 706 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

UPDATE...

Update to increase pops and for the 00z Aviation Discussion
Update.

DISCUSSION...

A Mesoscale Convective System over northeast Arkansas this evening
will continue to slowly push south as weakening cold pool advances
towards the Interstate 40 corridor. Very heavy rainfall and flash
flooding continues to be a major concern across northeast Arkansas
where significant flooding along with water rescues continue.
Heavy rainfall should continue along and north of the stalling
outflow boundary...which should not make much further progress
south of the Interstate 40 corridor this evening. Flash flood
potential will continue along and north of I-40 through the
evening before convection wanes later tonight. A few strong to
severe storms with damaging winds and large hail may also continue
for a few more hours prior to weakening instability with loss of
daytime heating. Further south across east Arkansas and north
Mississippi...most locations should remain dry through the
overnight hours.

Updated products will be sent shortly.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

Seasonally warm and humid early summer-like conditions to prevail
over the Midsouth through the next seven days.

Southwest flow aloft will prevail through the upcoming weekend,
ahead of a general upper level longwave trof over the eastern
Rockies and high plains. A downstream moisture plume will extend
from east TX, through the Ozarks and mid-MS River valley.
Northeast AR and the MO bootheel will remain in closest proximity
to this deeper moisture and will continue to see higher rain
chances than the remainder of the Midsouth. A more pronounced
shortwave trof passage through the Ozarks will occur on Friday,
latest GFS and ECMWF runs suggest upper level ridging may limit
rain chances over the TN River valley.

Upper level ridging will prevail over the weekend, with continued
weak daytime convective inhibition and low end rain chances.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

06z TAF Set

Showers are winding down in the MEM...JBR and MKL area. Partial
clearing will allow for a FEW/SCT IFR layer...with a possibility
of it going broken at JBR. Next timing/round of convection will
arrive in the early to mid afternoon hours...with TUP likely to
stay south of the activity. Southeast through south winds at 5-8
kts will increase to 10-14 kts...higher gusts at JBR and MEM.
Stronger gusts during storms. Winds will diminish some late.

JAB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 250006
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
706 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to increase pops and for the 00z Aviation Discussion
Update.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A Mesoscale Convective System over northeast Arkansas this evening
will continue to slowly push south as weakening cold pool advances
towards the Interstate 40 corridor. Very heavy rainfall and flash
flooding continues to be a major concern across northeast Arkansas
where significant flooding along with water rescues continue.
Heavy rainfall should continue along and north of the stalling
outflow boundary...which should not make much further progress
south of the Interstate 40 corridor this evening. Flash flood
potential will continue along and north of I-40 through the
evening before convection wanes later tonight. A few strong to
severe storms with damaging winds and large hail may also continue
for a few more hours prior to weakening instability with loss of
daytime heating. Further south across east Arkansas and north
Mississippi...most locations should remain dry through the
overnight hours.

Updated products will be sent shortly.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

Seasonally warm and humid early summer-like conditions to prevail
over the Midsouth through the next seven days.

Southwest flow aloft will prevail through the upcoming weekend,
ahead of a general upper level longwave trof over the eastern
Rockies and high plains. A downstream moisture plume will extend
from east TX, through the Ozarks and mid-MS River valley.
Northeast AR and the MO bootheel will remain in closest proximity
to this deeper moisture and will continue to see higher rain
chances than the remainder of the Midsouth. A more pronounced
shortwave trof passage through the Ozarks will occur on Friday,
latest GFS and ECMWF runs suggest upper level ridging may limit
rain chances over the TN River valley.

Upper level ridging will prevail over the weekend, with continued
weak daytime convective inhibition and low end rain chances.

PWB

&&

.AVIATION...

00z TAF Set

A convective complex continues to move south this evening and will
impact KJBR and KMEM through late evening with reduced cigs and
vsbys. Strong northwest wind gusts will also be possible in
convection. Improving conditions are expected at these locations
later this evening. Elsewhere...VFR conditions will continue at
KMKL and KTUP through the night with light southerly winds.

VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites on Wednesday. There
may be isolated convection near all sites except KTUP. Have
included vicinity thunder to account for this potential. Strong
and gusty southerly winds will also develop by mid morning
Wednesday and persist through the remainder of the forecast
period.

JLH

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 241147
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
647 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 302 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016/

High clouds cover much of the forecast area early this morning
with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to around 70 degrees.
The main weather feature is a frontal boundary which currently
extends from northwest Minnesota through central Nebraska and into
northern New Mexico. This front will move very little today. Some
thunderstorms have developed ahead of this front over southwest
Oklahoma. This area of thunderstorms is moving east and could
produce additional thunderstorms later today. Some of this
activity could reach western sections of the forecast area.
Temperatures will be quite warm this afternoon with highs in the
mid to upper 80s.

By tonight...another round of thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary. As this activity
moves east, some of the thunderstorms could reach western sections
of the forecast area while most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows Wednesday
morning in the mid to upper 60s.

On Wednesday...the frontal boundary will move a little further
east with more thunderstorms possible over western sections of the
forecast area. There will be a marginal risk for severe weather
mainly over northeast Arkansas with large hail and damaging winds
as possible threats. Temperatures will remain quite warm with
highs in the upper 80s. It appears that Wednesday night should be
dry as thunderstorm development along the front will not be as
much as the next couple of days.

Thursday will also see a small chance of thunderstorms over
western sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will be close
to 90 degrees in the afternoon. The upcoming holiday weekend looks
to be similar to the next few days as the frontal boundary remains
stuck over the central and southern plains. This will mean there
will be at least some chance of thunderstorms from Friday through
Memorial Day. It appears that the most likely day for
thunderstorms is Friday with little rain expected for Saturday
night and Sunday night. Temperatures will remain a little above
normal levels for the holiday weekend.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions will continue this period. Uncertainty with timing
and placement of convection continues. In the short term tsras may
impact KJBR and KMEM this morning. Hi-res models indicate another
another chance for tsras late afternoon/early evening. KJBR stands
the best chance a tsra on station. Expect south winds at 7-10 kts
diminishing somewhat after 25/00z.

SJM

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 240802
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
302 AM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

High clouds cover much of the forecast area early this morning
with temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to around 70 degrees.
The main weather feature is a frontal boundary which currently
extends from northwest Minnesota through central Nebraska and into
northern New Mexico. This front will move very little today. Some
thunderstorms have developed ahead of this front over southwest
Oklahoma. This area of thunderstorms is moving east and could
produce additional thunderstorms later today. Some of this
activity could reach western sections of the forecast area.
Temperatures will be quite warm this afternoon with highs in the
mid to upper 80s.

By tonight...another round of thunderstorms are expected to
develop along and ahead of the frontal boundary. As this activity
moves east, some of the thunderstorms could reach western sections
of the forecast area while most areas will remain dry.
Temperatures will remain on the warm side with lows Wednesday
morning in the mid to upper 60s.

On Wednesday...the frontal boundary will move a little further
east with more thunderstorms possible over western sections of the
forecast area. There will be a marginal risk for severe weather
mainly over northeast Arkansas with large hail and damaging winds
as possible threats. Temperatures will remain quite warm with
highs in the upper 80s. It appears that Wednesday night should be
dry as thunderstorm development along the front will not be as
much as the next couple of days.

Thursday will also see a small chance of thunderstorms over
western sections of the forecast area. Temperatures will be close
to 90 degrees in the afternoon. The upcoming holiday weekend looks
to be similar to the next few days as the frontal boundary remains
stuck over the central and southern plains. This will mean there
will be at least some chance of thunderstorms from Friday through
Memorial Day. It appears that the most likely day for
thunderstorms is Friday with little rain expected for Saturday
night and Sunday night. Temperatures will remain a little above
normal levels for the holiday weekend.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFs

VFR conditions will continue this period...with to much
uncertainty in weather coverage/timing to place convection on
station for MEM and MKL. Better confidence remains at JBR. Light
winds will become south at 7-10 kts...diminishing slightly late.

JAB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 240432
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1132 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Updated for 06z aviation discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 946 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

.UPDATE...

Update to lower pops for tonight.

DISCUSSION...

A weak Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) that was moving across
southern Missouri late this evening may help to trigger isolated
showers and thunderstorms across portions of northeast Arkansas
and the Missouri Bootheel overnight. Most locations should remain
dry though as forcing for ascent remains weak and overall moisture
limited. Updated to lower pops to slight chance across these
locations for the remainder of tonight. Elsewhere...dry and
relatively cool conditions will continue.

In addition...air quality conditions have improved with sunset
therefore the Code Orange Ozone Health Advisory has been allowed
to expire. Improving air quality is expected tomorrow with Code
Yellow (Moderate) conditions for ozone and particulate matter
forecast. Refer to the latest air quality forecasts and conditions
from the Shelby County Health Department and Airnow.

Updated zones and grids have been sent this evening.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

.DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge will build over the Southeast United States
over the next seven days while an upper trough digs into the
Central Plains. As a result, the Mid-South will be in between the
two systems. One shortwave after another will move around the base
of the trough and skirt Northeast Arkansas before moving
northeastward. Chances for precipitation over the next seven days
will come with showers and thunderstorms that develop in
association with these shortwaves thus the timing of the
shortwaves will be critical in determining when the best chances
will occur which is harder to do beyond 36-48 hours. This pattern is
very summer like thus any showers and thunderstorms that occur
will be hit and miss. Some locations may not see a drop of rain
over the next seven days.

Right now, it looks like a shortwave will skirt Northeast
Arkansas late tonight into Tuesday morning. Expect most of the
convection to occur north across Southeast Missouri. However, the
southern edge of the convection will likely affect Northeast
Arkansas thus will go with 30-40 pops across this area with 20-30
pops to the south and east.

This first shortwave will move out by mid-day while another one
approaches from the west during the afternoon hours. The second
shortwave will skirt northern areas of the Mid-South into Tuesday
evening. Will just go with 20-30 pops across the northwest half
of the CWA.

Another shortwave will then skirt along the MO/AR border on
Wednesday. Will keep 40-50 pops right along the border with 20-30
pops along the I-40 corridor.

After Wednesday, the next chance of rain may not occur until
Thursday evening with the next expected shortwave.

Beyond Friday, it becomes a very low confident forecast. Will just
keep small pops in the forecast.

Temperatures will warm each night and day through at least
Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 80s for most locations by
Thursday with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s by Wednesday night.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAFs

VFR conditions will continue this period...with to much
uncertainty in weather coverage/timing to place convection on
station for MEM and MKL. Better confidence remains at JBR. Light
winds will become south at 7-10 kts...diminishing slightly late.

JAB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 240246
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
946 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...

Update to lower pops for tonight.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A weak Mesoscale Convective Vortex (MCV) that was moving across
southern Missouri late this evening may help to trigger isolated
showers and thunderstorms across portions of northeast Arkansas
and the Missouri Bootheel overnight. Most locations should remain
dry though as forcing for ascent remains weak and overall moisture
limited. Updated to lower pops to slight chance across these
locations for the remainder of tonight. Elsewhere...dry and
relatively cool conditions will continue.

In addition...air quality conditions have improved with sunset
therefore the Code Orange Ozone Health Advisory has been allowed
to expire. Improving air quality is expected tomorrow with Code
Yellow (Moderate) conditions for ozone and particulate matter
forecast. Refer to the latest air quality forecasts and conditions
from the Shelby County Health Department and Airnow.

Updated zones and grids have been sent this evening.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

An upper level ridge will build over the Southeast United States
over the next seven days while an upper trough digs into the
Central Plains. As a result, the Mid-South will be in between the
two systems. One shortwave after another will move around the base
of the trough and skirt Northeast Arkansas before moving
northeastward. Chances for precipitation over the next seven days
will come with showers and thunderstorms that develop in
association with these shortwaves thus the timing of the
shortwaves will be critical in determining when the best chances
will occur which is harder to do beyond 36-48 hours. This pattern is
very summer like thus any showers and thunderstorms that occur
will be hit and miss. Some locations may not see a drop of rain
over the next seven days.

Right now, it looks like a shortwave will skirt Northeast
Arkansas late tonight into Tuesday morning. Expect most of the
convection to occur north across Southeast Missouri. However, the
southern edge of the convection will likely affect Northeast
Arkansas thus will go with 30-40 pops across this area with 20-30
pops to the south and east.

This first shortwave will move out by mid-day while another one
approaches from the west during the afternoon hours. The second
shortwave will skirt northern areas of the Mid-South into Tuesday
evening. Will just go with 20-30 pops across the northwest half
of the CWA.

Another shortwave will then skirt along the MO/AR border on
Wednesday. Will keep 40-50 pops right along the border with 20-30
pops along the I-40 corridor.

After Wednesday, the next chance of rain may not occur until
Thursday evening with the next expected shortwave.

Beyond Friday, it becomes a very low confident forecast. Will just
keep small pops in the forecast.

Temperatures will warm each night and day through at least
Thursday. Highs will be in the upper 80s for most locations by
Thursday with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s by Wednesday night.

KRM

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAFs

VFR...with a few showers possible during the latter half of the
period at JBR and MEM from a weak disturbance. A better threat
for thunder will arrive at the very end/just beyond this cycle.
Light surface winds overnight will become southerly at 7-9 kts.

JAB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 231637 AAA
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1137 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z Aviation Discussion below.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1103 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

UPDATE...

High pressure remains located over the Mid-South this morning.
Sunny skies have allowed temperatures to reach 80 degrees already
this morning. Highs will reach into the mid 80s this afternoon.
Current forecast looks good. No updates are expected.

KRM

DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

Large amplitude upper level ridge is just to the west of the area
this morning and will slowly move to the east. Meanwhile, the
surface high pressure as moved a little to the east and today we
should see winds from the south which should be able to bring an
increase to the low level moisture to the Mid-South. As the upper
ridge moves to the east it weakens a little and the Mid-South will
how southwest flow aloft beginning on Tuesday.

At the surface for most of the rest of the week the Mid-South will
be in a transition zone with the surface high to the east and a
surface low or series of surface lows over the plains as the main
upper trough is still over the Rockies. However, the area should
see some thunderstorms for the rest of the week into the weekend.
Still don`t have great confidence on timing, coverage, or
strength of any of the storms that will move through. Yet, it
looks like Tuesday, Wednesday, and maybe Thursday we have decent
instability. Yet the models differ on the location of the
instability with the GFS never seemingly wanting to push anything
east of the Mississippi River. So will mention strong to
marginally severe storms on Tuesday and Wednesday mainly west of
the Mississippi River and then on Thursday just mention strong
storms with very low confidence.

Temperatures throughout the week will be just about normal (mid
80s for highs) with the big difference than we have had the past
couple of days will be the higher nighttime temperatures and more
humid air.
TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs

VFR and light surface winds to prevail through late evening and
early overnight periods.

Thereafter, the upper level ridge that has prevailed over the
Midsouth the last two days will lift east, facilitating gradually
weakening TSRA over the Ozark plateau to edge into the JBR
vicinity near or just prior to daybreak. Confidence is limited on
TSRA sustainability later in the morning toward MEM, but redevelopment
scattered TSRA may occur once surface heating commences toward 18Z
Tuesday.

PWB

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 231124
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
624 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 12Z Aviation Discussion

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Large amplitude upper level ridge is just to the west of the area
this morning and will slowly move to the east. Meanwhile, the
surface high pressure as moved a little to the east and today we
should see winds from the south which should be able to bring an
increase to the low level moisture to the Mid-South. As the upper
ridge moves to the east it weakens a little and the Mid-South will
how southwest flow aloft beginning on Tuesday.

At the surface for most of the rest of the week the Mid-South will
be in a transition zone with the surface high to the east and a
surface low or series of surface lows over the plains as the main
upper trough is still over the Rockies. However, the area should
see some thunderstorms for the rest of the week into the weekend.
Still don`t have great confidence on timing, coverage, or
strength of any of the storms that will move through. Yet, it
looks like Tuesday, Wednesday, and maybe Thursday we have decent
instability. Yet the models differ on the location of the
instability with the GFS never seemingly wanting to push anything
east of the Mississippi River. So will mention strong to
marginally severe storms on Tuesday and Wednesday mainly west of
the Mississippi River and then on Thursday just mention strong
storms with very low confidence.

Temperatures throughout the week will be just about normal (mid
80s for highs) with the big difference than we have had the past
couple of days will be the higher nighttime temperatures and more
humid air.
TLSJr

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF cycle

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Winds
will be near calm at the beginning of the forecast period and then
become southerly at around 5 knots later this morning.

ARS

&&

.MEG Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$





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