Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS64 KMEG 301038
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
438 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EXTEND INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR. MODELS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS FROM WEST TN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THIS MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST. WITH A LIGHT WIND...IT WILL
BE COLD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY SATURDAY WITH COOL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. DIVIDED THE POP GROUP INTO TWO
SIX HOUR PERIODS...SINCE LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN WILL QUICKLY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE WET FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO KY BY SUNSET. SHOWERS LOOK TO
BE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY. THE NAM IS INDICATING ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE KEEPING IT MORE STABLE. FOR NOW...HELD OFF MENTIONING ANY
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.

WINDY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL
DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY END OR TAPER OFF ABOUT THE TIME IT BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO TURN TO SNOW. NEVERTHELESS...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTERACTS
WITH THE COLD AIR. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO JACKSON TENNESSEE TO AROUND IUKA MISSISSIPPI.
RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH.

COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEARING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S. WIND CHILL
READINGS MONDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES. THE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE SOUTH CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINLY AFFECT EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTH
MS. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH PRECIP ENDING
BEFORE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP...BUT WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS ALSO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TUP
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CLEARING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT JBR AND SHOULD OCCUR
AT MEM AFTER 30/08Z AND AT MKL/TUP TOWARDS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY N/NNE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME
LIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 301038
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
438 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

FOR TODAY...PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER WILL OCCUR WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND EXTEND INTO THE
MIDSOUTH. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR. MODELS
INDICATE THAT LOW CLOUDS FROM WEST TN INTO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
MS WILL QUICKLY CLEAR THIS MORNING.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TONIGHT
AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS TO OUR WEST. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST. WITH A LIGHT WIND...IT WILL
BE COLD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE 20S.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE DAY SATURDAY WITH COOL HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUING TO DOMINATE OUR WEATHER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER IN THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER WILL OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. DIVIDED THE POP GROUP INTO TWO
SIX HOUR PERIODS...SINCE LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE RAIN WILL HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. A CHANCE OF RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST AR
AND THE MO BOOTHEEL BEFORE MIDNIGHT...THEN RAIN WILL QUICKLY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD FROM THE WEST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE WET FOR THE ENTIRE REGION. A COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND MOVES INTO KY BY SUNSET. SHOWERS LOOK TO
BE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY. THE NAM IS INDICATING ENOUGH ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF
ARE KEEPING IT MORE STABLE. FOR NOW...HELD OFF MENTIONING ANY
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL.

WINDY AND MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE MIDSOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES TO THE EAST. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL
DROP TO BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES OVERNIGHT. LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY END OR TAPER OFF ABOUT THE TIME IT BECOME
COLD ENOUGH FOR THE RAIN TO TURN TO SNOW. NEVERTHELESS...MAY SEE SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES AS A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE INTERACTS
WITH THE COLD AIR. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST POSSIBILITY OF MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY NIGHT WOULD BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
UNION CITY TENNESSEE TO JACKSON TENNESSEE TO AROUND IUKA MISSISSIPPI.
RIGHT NOW...IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE MUCH.

COLD AIR WILL SETTLE OVER THE MIDSOUTH MONDAY WITH SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEARING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE IN THE 30S. WIND CHILL
READINGS MONDAY MORNING WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 10 AND 20 DEGREES. THE
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO THE EAST TUESDAY WITH WINDS
TURNING TO THE SOUTH CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE
40S DURING THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST
TO MOVE TO OUR SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAINLY AFFECT EAST CENTRAL AR AND NORTH
MS. LOOKS LIKE THE LOW WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH PRECIP ENDING
BEFORE IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY WINTRY PRECIP...BUT WILL KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS ALSO. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
AIR WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT WE COULD SEE A FEW FLURRIES WITH THIS FRONT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST ATTM.

JCL

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TUP
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CLEARING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT JBR AND SHOULD OCCUR
AT MEM AFTER 30/08Z AND AT MKL/TUP TOWARDS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY N/NNE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME
LIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 300537
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1137 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&
.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
9 PM CST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ENTERING SOUTHERN MS. AN ARCTIC HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE MIDSOUTH...SURFACE
WINDS WERE GUSTING OVER 20KTS SOUTH OF I40...NEARER TO THE POST
FRONTAL PRESSURE RISE CENTER OVER NORTH MS. THIS PRESSURE RISE
CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.

MOST RECENT FORECAST UPDATE CONTAINED UPDATES TO OVERNIGHT SKY
CONDITION...IN ADDITION TO EARLIER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE IN THE
60S WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND
50S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY AND COOL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL MEAN A DRY AND CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S.

BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS SO
ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY SO THERE WILL
BE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING CLOSE TO
FREEZING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK
EAST SO WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND NEXT THURSDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

TEMPORARY MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT TUP
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. CLEARING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AT JBR AND SHOULD OCCUR
AT MEM AFTER 30/08Z AND AT MKL/TUP TOWARDS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON. GUSTY N/NNE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BECOME
LIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 300338 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
938 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
9 PM CST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ENTERING SOUTHERN MS. AN ARCTIC HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE MIDSOUTH...SURFACE
WINDS WERE GUSTING OVER 20KTS SOUTH OF I40...NEARER TO THE POST
FRONTAL PRESSURE RISE CENTER OVER NORTH MS. THIS PRESSURE RISE
CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.

MOST RECENT FORECAST UPDATE CONTAINED UPDATES TO OVERNIGHT SKY
CONDITION...IN ADDITION TO EARLIER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE IN THE
60S WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND
50S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY AND COOL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL MEAN A DRY AND CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S.

BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS SO
ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY SO THERE WILL
BE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING CLOSE TO
FREEZING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK
EAST SO WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND NEXT THURSDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES
TONIGHT DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY MORNING AS
CLOUDS GRADUALLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. GUSTY N/NNE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 6-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 300338 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
938 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
9 PM CST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
MIDSOUTH...ENTERING SOUTHERN MS. AN ARCTIC HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER
THE RED RIVER VALLEY OF THE NORTH...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. OVER THE MIDSOUTH...SURFACE
WINDS WERE GUSTING OVER 20KTS SOUTH OF I40...NEARER TO THE POST
FRONTAL PRESSURE RISE CENTER OVER NORTH MS. THIS PRESSURE RISE
CENTER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.

MOST RECENT FORECAST UPDATE CONTAINED UPDATES TO OVERNIGHT SKY
CONDITION...IN ADDITION TO EARLIER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 612 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE IN THE
60S WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND
50S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY AND COOL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL MEAN A DRY AND CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S.

BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS SO
ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY SO THERE WILL
BE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING CLOSE TO
FREEZING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK
EAST SO WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND NEXT THURSDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES
TONIGHT DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY MORNING AS
CLOUDS GRADUALLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. GUSTY N/NNE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 6-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 300012
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
612 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE IN THE
60S WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND
50S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY AND COOL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL MEAN A DRY AND CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S.

BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS SO
ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY SO THERE WILL
BE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING CLOSE TO
FREEZING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK
EAST SO WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND NEXT THURSDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

POST FRONTAL CLOUDS WILL PRODUCE MVFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES
TONIGHT DUE TO MOISTURE BEING TRAPPED BELOW A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY MORNING AS
CLOUDS GRADUALLY THIN OUT DURING THE DAY. GUSTY N/NNE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 6-10 KTS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 292113
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE IN THE 60S
WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND 50S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY AND COOL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL MEAN A DRY AND CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S.

BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS SO
ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY SO THERE WILL
BE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING CLOSE TO
FREEZING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK
EAST SO WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND NEXT THURSDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM THE SW TO THE N
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GUSTS SHOULD
EASE UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS
FOR KMEM...KJBR...AND KMKL LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A LOW DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE BACK TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS AGAIN NEAR 10 KTS.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 292113
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS ARE INCREASING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH NORTH MISSISSIPPI THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARE IN THE 60S
WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT READINGS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE 40S AND 50S.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY THIS EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO
THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE FOUND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. ON FRIDAY KEEPING
THINGS DRY AND COOL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH
WILL BE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WHICH WILL MEAN A DRY AND CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE 20S.

BY SATURDAY...THE HIGH WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THAT WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WHICH WILL BRING
SOMEWHAT MILDER AIR INTO THE REGION. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE
CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS WITH READINGS FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER
50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL
BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD NOT REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING IN MOST AREAS SO
ALL THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT CHANGE OVER TO SNOW. THE COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY SO THERE WILL
BE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE DROPPING CLOSE TO
FREEZING OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SO THE RAIN
COULD CHANGE TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING.

BY MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE REGION BRINGING
MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
CHILLY WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL TRACK
EAST SO WINDS WILL START TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO MUCH WITH LOWS TUESDAY
MORNING MAINLY IN THE 20S.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY DAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILDER WITH HIGHS IN THE
40S. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING SO NO SNOW IS EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO NEXT THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND NEXT THURSDAY.

ARS

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM THE SW TO THE N
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GUSTS SHOULD
EASE UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS
FOR KMEM...KJBR...AND KMKL LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A LOW DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE BACK TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS AGAIN NEAR 10 KTS.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 291744
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COLD FRONT
HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
CLOUDS ARE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WE SEE LESS SUN. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM THE SW TO THE N
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GUSTS SHOULD
EASE UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS
FOR KMEM...KJBR...AND KMKL LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A LOW DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE BACK TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS AGAIN NEAR 10 KTS.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 291744
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1144 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COLD FRONT
HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
CLOUDS ARE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WE SEE LESS SUN. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM THE SW TO THE N
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AS FRONTAL PASSAGE OCCURS. GUSTS SHOULD
EASE UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 10 KTS FROM A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. INCLUDED MVFR CEILINGS
FOR KMEM...KJBR...AND KMKL LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
AS A LOW DECK MOVES IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT. CEILINGS
SHOULD RISE BACK TO VFR AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING LATE IN
THE PERIOD WITH WINDS AGAIN NEAR 10 KTS.

ZDM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 291608
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1008 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COLD FRONT
HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
CLOUDS ARE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WE SEE LESS SUN. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (29/12Z-30/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED WITH LLWS
THROUGH EARLY / MID MORNING WITH STRONG SW TO W WINDS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ANY
RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE KTUP
SITE THIS MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NORTHERLY
WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING BECOMING 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 291608
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1008 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE COLD FRONT
HAS STARTED TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT
CLOUDS ARE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS TIME SO IT WILL TAKE A
FEW HOURS BEFORE WE SEE LESS SUN. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO
CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

ARS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (29/12Z-30/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED WITH LLWS
THROUGH EARLY / MID MORNING WITH STRONG SW TO W WINDS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ANY
RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE KTUP
SITE THIS MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NORTHERLY
WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING BECOMING 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 291109 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WINDCHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (29/12Z-30/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED WITH LLWS
THROUGH EARLY / MID MORNING WITH STRONG SW TO W WINDS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ANY
RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE KTUP
SITE THIS MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NORTHERLY
WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING BECOMING 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 291109 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
509 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015/

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WINDCHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (29/12Z-30/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. CONTINUED WITH LLWS
THROUGH EARLY / MID MORNING WITH STRONG SW TO W WINDS AT THE
LOWER LEVELS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY. ANY
RAIN WITH THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE KTUP
SITE THIS MORNING. STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT REMAINING
GUSTY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. NORTHERLY
WINDS DECREASING THIS EVENING BECOMING 5-8 KTS OVERNIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 290928
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WINDCHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTH MAINLY AFTER
29/17Z. LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SITES OVERNIGHT AS 1500-2000
WINDS INCREASE TO 55KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THURSDAY
EVENING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 290928
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MUCH MILDER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND
BREEZY SOUTH WINDS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
WAA WAS TAKING PLACE OVER THE AREA PRODUCING A BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MEASURABLE WILL BE ACROSS WEST TENNESSEE BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...MILDER WEATHER WILL BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF FOR ONE MORE DAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT SEEN IN
MISSOURI PASSES THROUGH. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY SUNNY AS
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS...FLIRTING CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS
MORNING DIMINISH AND VEER NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. LIGHTER
WINDS AND VARIABLE CLOUDINESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST
WILL KEEP THE REGION COOL AND DRY TOMORROW.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS TRENDING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH WITH
THE PUSH OF ARCTIC AIR THIS WEEKEND. A DEEPER UPPER TROUGH WILL
DROP OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES...WHILE THE UPPER LOW
WEST OF THE BAJA MOVES EAST INTO MEXICO. THE UPPER FLOW OVER OUR
AREA WILL BACK FROM NORTHWEST TO WESTERLY ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE
TO SURGE NORTH OUT OF TEXAS...AND THEN A RIGHT TURN EAST. THUS
CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY SATURDAY...AND WITH
WINDS REMAINING MORE EASTERLY HAVE TRENDED COOLER THAN FORECAST
GUIDANCE. MODELS SHOW EASTERN EXTENT OF RAIN CROSSING MISSOURI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
ARKANSAS AND THE BOOTHEEL REGION OTHERWISE RAIN WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO THE MIDSOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY A SURFACE LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TEXAS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...WHILE A 1040MB
SURFACE HIGH DROPS INTO THE DAKOTAS. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
THIS SOLUTION WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR REACHING THE
NORTHWEST MIDSOUTH COUNTIES BY AFTERNOON...SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
RAIN/SNOW MIX A BIT EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. BELIEVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL OCCUR IN THE
EVENING HOURS. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUBFREEZING 925MB
TEMPERATURES MAKING THEIR WAY DOWN INTO NORTH MISSISSIPPI BEFORE
PRECIPITATION SHUTS OFF...SO WITH THIS...PLAN ON WORDING A SNOW
THREAT IN THE MORNING HWO. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THE BRUNT OF THE
ARCTIC AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION...AND WITH GUSTY NORTH
WINDS...WINDCHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS. CLOUDS WILL LINGER
MONDAY WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES POSSIBLE. IT WILL BE COLD AS HIGHS
FOR SEVERAL MIDSOUTHERNERS WILL ONLY CLIMB INTO THE LOW 30S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH HIGHS BACK INTO
THE 40S AND LOW 50S. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT AS MODELS
DEPICT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GULF. ANY
PRECIPITATION FOR NOW APPEARS TO STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTH MAINLY AFTER
29/17Z. LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SITES OVERNIGHT AS 1500-2000
WINDS INCREASE TO 55KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THURSDAY
EVENING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 290532
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.


.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
MIDEVENING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AHEAD OF 1004MB SURFACE LOW
OVER IA.

THE COMBINATION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE DELTA WERE NEAR FORECASTED LOWS AT 9 PM AND
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MOST RECENT UPDATE.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM
REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THEREFORE FUTURE FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MID SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTH MAINLY AFTER
29/17Z. LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SITES OVERNIGHT AS 1500-2000
WINDS INCREASE TO 55KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THURSDAY
EVENING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 290532
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1132 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.


.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
MIDEVENING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AHEAD OF 1004MB SURFACE LOW
OVER IA.

THE COMBINATION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE DELTA WERE NEAR FORECASTED LOWS AT 9 PM AND
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MOST RECENT UPDATE.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM
REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THEREFORE FUTURE FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MID SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTH MAINLY AFTER
29/17Z. LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SITES OVERNIGHT AS 1500-2000
WINDS INCREASE TO 55KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THURSDAY
EVENING.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 290328 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDEVENING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AHEAD OF 1004MB SURFACE LOW
OVER IA.

THE COMBINATION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE DELTA WERE NEAR FORECASTED LOWS AT 9 PM AND
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MOST RECENT UPDATE.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM
REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THEREFORE FUTURE FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MID SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHWEST MAINLY AFTER
29/17Z. LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SITES OVERNIGHT AS 1500-2000
WINDS INCREASE TO 45KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 290328 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
928 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
MIDEVENING GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED CONSIDERABLE HIGH
CLOUDINESS SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE LOWER/MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEY IN
ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LOW ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER. SOUTHERLY SURFACE
WINDS PREVAILED OVER THE MIDSOUTH...AHEAD OF 1004MB SURFACE LOW
OVER IA.

THE COMBINATION OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND OCCASIONALLY
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS NEARLY STEADY OVERNIGHT.
A FEW LOCATIONS OVER THE DELTA WERE NEAR FORECASTED LOWS AT 9 PM AND
HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE MOST RECENT UPDATE.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM
REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THEREFORE FUTURE FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MID SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHWEST MAINLY AFTER
29/17Z. LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SITES OVERNIGHT AS 1500-2000
WINDS INCREASE TO 45KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 282358
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
558 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO ADD 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM
REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THEREFORE FUTURE FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MID SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOWARDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO BETWEEN 11-15 KTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 22 KTS TONIGHT AND VEER NORTHWEST MAINLY AFTER
29/17Z. LLWS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT SITES OVERNIGHT AS 1500-2000
WINDS INCREASE TO 45KTS AS A LOW LEVEL JET MOVES INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 282118
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
318 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID SOUTH LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO ADVANCE A SURFACE
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL CONFINE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR LIGHT
RAIN ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN AREAS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY THOUGH AS THE FRONT
MOVES THROUGH WITH WINDS SWITCHING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN QUITE MILD
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION KEEPS LOWS
WELL ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THURSDAY SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 50S NORTH
TO LOWER 60S SOUTH.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL PICK UP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S THURSDAY NIGHT AND ONLY REBOUND BACK INTO THE
UPPER 30S IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA. DRY CONDITIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES CAN BE
EXPECTED BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MOISTURE SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEKEND. THERE
REMAINS MODEL INCONSISTENCIES WITH RESPECT TO THIS SYSTEM
REGARDING AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE PROFILES. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LIKELY BEGIN IN WESTERN AREAS LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY LINGER
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP STEADILY ACROSS THE AREA.
THE FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR MIXED PRECIP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT
ANY WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...THERE
REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TIMING OF THE COLD AIR AND
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THEREFORE FUTURE FORECAST CHANGES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WE MOVE CLOSER TO THE EVENT.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN BEHIND THE WEEKEND STORM
SYSTEM WITH DRY WEATHER AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF
SHOULD BRING THE NEXT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE MID SOUTH BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

JLH

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (28/18Z-29/18Z)

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TURNING SE-S TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS
CONTINUING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND
KMKL BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 28/04Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S
AROUND 7 KTS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

JPM

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 281746
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND LOWER SKY
COVER GRIDS.

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AT
ALL SITES BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AREAWIDE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (28/18Z-29/18Z)

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TURNING SE-S TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS
CONTINUING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND
KMKL BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 28/04Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S
AROUND 7 KTS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 281746
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1146 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1040 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND LOWER SKY
COVER GRIDS.

DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AT
ALL SITES BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AREAWIDE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF CYCLE (28/18Z-29/18Z)

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
TURNING SE-S TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS
CONTINUING TO INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND
KMKL BECOMING GUSTY AFTER 28/04Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S
AROUND 7 KTS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO NEAR MVFR LEVELS TONIGHT AND
EARLY TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

&&


.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 281640
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1040 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND LOWER SKY
COVER GRIDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AT
ALL SITES BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AREAWIDE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (28/12Z-29/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TURNING SE-S
TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER 28/05Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S AROUND 7 KTS. MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT IN LATER
FORECASTS WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 281640
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1040 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE AND LOWER SKY
COVER GRIDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE MID SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UNDERCUT HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES AT
ALL SITES BASED ON CURRENT TEMPERATURE TRENDS. ALSO LOWERED SKY
GRIDS TO REFLECT MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY AREAWIDE.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOK ON TRACK.

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (28/12Z-29/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TURNING SE-S
TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER 28/05Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S AROUND 7 KTS. MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT IN LATER
FORECASTS WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 281116 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (28/12Z-29/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TURNING SE-S
TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER 28/05Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S AROUND 7 KTS. MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT IN LATER
FORECASTS WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 281116 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
516 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...   /ISSUED 305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015/

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (28/12Z-29/12Z)

VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS TURNING SE-S
TODAY INCREASING TO BETWEEN 8 AND 12 KTS. WINDS CONTINUING TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT AT KJBR...KMEM...AND KMKL BECOMING
GUSTY AFTER 28/05Z-06Z. WINDS TONIGHT AT KTUP S AROUND 7 KTS. MAY
HAVE TO CONSIDER MENTION OF LLWS IN THE TAFS FOR TONIGHT IN LATER
FORECASTS WITH STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AT THE LOWER LEVELS.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 280905
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR 10 KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 00Z WHERE WINDS DECREASE BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 280905
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR 10 KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 00Z WHERE WINDS DECREASE BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 280905
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR 10 KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 00Z WHERE WINDS DECREASE BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 280905
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
305 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENTLY A PEACEFUL WEATHER NIGHT ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH...WITH
CLEAR SKIES...CALM OR LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS...AND TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO THE UPPER 30S.

FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THIS PERIOD WILL BE MOSTLY DRY...WITH
THE ONLY EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL WINDOW FOR LIGHT RAIN LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT/ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE. BELIEVE THE MAJORITY OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOUD COVER. MILDER HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND
TOMORROW...WITH SOME MIDSOUTHERNERS SEEING 60 DEGREE WEATHER.
CLOUDS TONIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL FILTER IN FRIDAY DROPPING HIGHS TO BELOW NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD STILL BEING
ASSESSED BY THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE PHASING OF TROUGHS IN THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN BRANCHES OF THE JET STREAM WILL TAKE PLACE
STARTING SATURDAY OVER THE ROCKIES. THIS ACTION WILL ALLOW A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO STREAM IN DEEPER MOISTURE INTO THE
ARKLATEX AND MIDSOUTH DURING THE DAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK
OUT SATURDAY NIGHT AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE AREA.
RAIN WILL BE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW TRIGGERED BY THE
UPPER TROUGH TRACKS FROM TEXAS TO THE MIDSOUTH. TEMPERATURES BOTH
DAYS WILL REMAIN COOL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PULLS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT A
MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH.
QUESTIONS ON WHETHER THE PRECIPITATION EXITS THE AREA BEFORE
SUBFREEZING AIR MOVES IN...IS STILL BEING HASHED OUT BETWEEN EACH
MODEL AND MODEL RUN. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE KEPT CHANCES LOW
FOR BOTH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX AND FOR ALL SNOW. IF BETTER MODEL
CONSISTENCY LEANS TOWARDS LINGERING PRECIPITATION...THE EASTERN
AREA COULD SEE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS. CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ON MONDAY
WITH CAA DROPPING 925MB TEMPERATURES FROM INTO THE -6C TO -10C
RANGE. THUS HAVE DROPPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST THINKING. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER...AND WITH
BREEZY NORTH WINDS WINDCHILLS WILL STAY BELOW FREEZING. SO A COLD
START FOR THE FIRST WORK DAY OF FEBRUARY 2015.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DRY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
MIDSOUTH PRECIPITATION FREE AND TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR 10 KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 00Z WHERE WINDS DECREASE BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 280524
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1124 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 30S PREVAILED
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT 9 PM. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.

A FEW FORECAST UPDATES WERE MADE THIS EVENING...WITH ADJUSTMENTS
TO SKY CONDITION AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER PLEASANT
MIDWINTER DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HIGHS MAY CLIMB
ANOTHER DEGREE...BUT I DON`T EXPECT TO SEE ANY LOCATION MAKING IT
TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW AND THURSDAY SHOULD
BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEFORE
NOON...WITH NORTHERLY WIND USHERING IN COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
KEEP ANY RAINFALL IN THE LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...SO RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN IN WEST
TENNESSEE...AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE
LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER NOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN RESULTING IN COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST 24
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...FEATURING LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH SATURDAY A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EAST ARKANSAS...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD EARLY PREDICTION.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MARK THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS
TYPICAL...THE COLDER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE HAS EXITED STAGE EAST.

30

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR 10 KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 00Z WHERE WINDS DECREASE BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 280524
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1124 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS BELOW...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 915 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 30S PREVAILED
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT 9 PM. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.

A FEW FORECAST UPDATES WERE MADE THIS EVENING...WITH ADJUSTMENTS
TO SKY CONDITION AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS.

PWB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER PLEASANT
MIDWINTER DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HIGHS MAY CLIMB
ANOTHER DEGREE...BUT I DON`T EXPECT TO SEE ANY LOCATION MAKING IT
TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW AND THURSDAY SHOULD
BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEFORE
NOON...WITH NORTHERLY WIND USHERING IN COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
KEEP ANY RAINFALL IN THE LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...SO RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN IN WEST
TENNESSEE...AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE
LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER NOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN RESULTING IN COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST 24
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...FEATURING LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH SATURDAY A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EAST ARKANSAS...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD EARLY PREDICTION.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MARK THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS
TYPICAL...THE COLDER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE HAS EXITED STAGE EAST.

30

.AVIATION...

06Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...TO NEAR 10 KTS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT TUP. THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 00Z WHERE WINDS DECREASE BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD
MAINTAIN OR INCREASE SURFACE WINDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 280315 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
915 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND TEMPS IN THE 30S PREVAILED
ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH AT 9 PM. CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...AS SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.

A FEW FORECAST UPDATES WERE MADE THIS EVENING...WITH ADJUSTMENTS
TO SKY CONDITION AND OVERNIGHT MIN TEMPS.

PWB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 513 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER PLEASANT
MIDWINTER DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HIGHS MAY CLIMB
ANOTHER DEGREE...BUT I DON`T EXPECT TO SEE ANY LOCATION MAKING IT
TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW AND THURSDAY SHOULD
BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEFORE
NOON...WITH NORTHERLY WIND USHERING IN COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
KEEP ANY RAINFALL IN THE LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...SO RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN IN WEST
TENNESSEE...AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE
LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER NOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN RESULTING IN COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST 24
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...FEATURING LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH SATURDAY A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EAST ARKANSAS...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD EARLY PREDICTION.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MARK THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS
TYPICAL...THE COLDER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE HAS EXITED STAGE EAST.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT BELOW 5KTS AT ALL TAF SITES AND GRADUALLY GAIN
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY WHILE REMAINING
RELATIVELY LIGHT. MEM WILL APPROACH 10 KTS...BUT FALL AGAIN
TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 272313
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
513 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER PLEASANT
MIDWINTER DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HIGHS MAY CLIMB
ANOTHER DEGREE...BUT I DON`T EXPECT TO SEE ANY LOCATION MAKING IT
TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW AND THURSDAY SHOULD
BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEFORE
NOON...WITH NORTHERLY WIND USHERING IN COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
KEEP ANY RAINFALL IN THE LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...SO RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN IN WEST
TENNESSEE...AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE
LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER NOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN RESULTING IN COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST 24
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...FEATURING LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH SATURDAY A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EAST ARKANSAS...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD EARLY PREDICTION.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MARK THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS
TYPICAL...THE COLDER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE HAS EXITED STAGE EAST.

30

AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT BELOW 5KTS AT ALL TAF SITES AND GRADUALLY GAIN
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY WHILE REMAINING
RELATIVELY LIGHT. MEM WILL APPROACH 10 KTS...BUT FALL AGAIN
TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 272313
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
513 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS...

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER PLEASANT
MIDWINTER DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HIGHS MAY CLIMB
ANOTHER DEGREE...BUT I DON`T EXPECT TO SEE ANY LOCATION MAKING IT
TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW AND THURSDAY SHOULD
BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEFORE
NOON...WITH NORTHERLY WIND USHERING IN COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
KEEP ANY RAINFALL IN THE LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...SO RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN IN WEST
TENNESSEE...AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE
LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER NOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN RESULTING IN COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST 24
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...FEATURING LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH SATURDAY A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EAST ARKANSAS...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD EARLY PREDICTION.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MARK THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS
TYPICAL...THE COLDER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE HAS EXITED STAGE EAST.

30

AVIATION...

00Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
DECREASE OVERNIGHT BELOW 5KTS AT ALL TAF SITES AND GRADUALLY GAIN
MORE OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY WHILE REMAINING
RELATIVELY LIGHT. MEM WILL APPROACH 10 KTS...BUT FALL AGAIN
TOWARD 00Z THURSDAY.

TVT

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 272113
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
313 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS HAVE RESULTED IN ANOTHER PLEASANT
MIDWINTER DAY ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...HIGHS MAY CLIMB
ANOTHER DEGREE...BUT I DON`T EXPECT TO SEE ANY LOCATION MAKING IT
TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK THIS AFTERNOON. TOMORROW AND THURSDAY SHOULD
BE WARMER...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STORM SYSTEM WELL TO OUR NORTH IN THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE MIDSOUTH
THURSDAY. WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE THEIR WARMEST TEMPERATURES BEFORE
NOON...WITH NORTHERLY WIND USHERING IN COOLER DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM ENOUGH AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
KEEP ANY RAINFALL IN THE LIQUID FORM. HOWEVER...MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL BE LIMITED...SO RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL WILL BE IN NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE MIDSOUTH EARLY IN THE DAY...THEN IN WEST
TENNESSEE...AND NORTH MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY NEAR THE ALABAMA STATE
LINE AND TENNESSEE RIVER AFTER NOON.

BEHIND THE FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAK RIDGE WILL
BUILD IN RESULTING IN COOLER BUT DRY CONDITIONS FOR AT LEAST 24
HOURS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY...FEATURING LOWS
NEAR FREEZING AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES.
SIMILAR TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. IF MOISTURE ARRIVES EARLY
ENOUGH SATURDAY A FEW FLURRIES OR EVEN LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EAST ARKANSAS...BUT ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN
QUICKLY AS TEMPERATURES WARM. WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ENDING EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT. ONE QUARTER
TO A THIRD OF AN INCH OF RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD EARLY PREDICTION.
HIGHS SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 40S TO LOW 50S WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 DEGREES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MARK THE END OF THE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY
NIGHT AND COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS IS
TYPICAL...THE COLDER AIR IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE
MOISTURE HAS EXITED STAGE EAST.

30

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CAN/T
RULE OUT KMKL BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NEARBY. N WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271814
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1214 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

BUMPED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT WARMING
TRENDS. SOME OF THE WARMEST LOCATION IN THE MIDSOUTH MAY CREEP
INTO THE LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 50S. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

GENERALLY SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MIDSOUTH...WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THE COUNTIES NEAR THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF STRATOCU IS PERSISTING.
THERE IS A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR...WITH MID 20S IN
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 40S IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
WESTERLY WINDS WERE PROVIDING THE WARMER MIXING ACROSS THE DELTA.

THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST AND THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THUS THE AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY ALLOWING 925MB MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER
THE CLOUD COVER...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
MILD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY COOLS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NORTH HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING MEASURABLE. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RUN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DROPPING TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH GETTING CARVED OUT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TO FOLLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS WETTER WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO
BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENT. ONLY THE
EXCEPTION...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SUBFREEZING 925MB TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WANING DOWN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER AND WARMER.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND COOL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ALOFT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CAN/T
RULE OUT KMKL BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NEARBY. N WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 271814
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1214 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE... /ISSUED 1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

BUMPED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON CURRENT WARMING
TRENDS. SOME OF THE WARMEST LOCATION IN THE MIDSOUTH MAY CREEP
INTO THE LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE
IN THE MIDDLE 50S. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

GENERALLY SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MIDSOUTH...WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THE COUNTIES NEAR THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF STRATOCU IS PERSISTING.
THERE IS A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR...WITH MID 20S IN
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 40S IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
WESTERLY WINDS WERE PROVIDING THE WARMER MIXING ACROSS THE DELTA.

THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST AND THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THUS THE AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY ALLOWING 925MB MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER
THE CLOUD COVER...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
MILD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY COOLS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NORTH HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING MEASURABLE. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RUN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DROPPING TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH GETTING CARVED OUT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TO FOLLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS WETTER WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO
BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENT. ONLY THE
EXCEPTION...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SUBFREEZING 925MB TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WANING DOWN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER AND WARMER.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND COOL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ALOFT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAF SET

VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CAN/T
RULE OUT KMKL BRIEFLY DROPPING TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS THE BACK
EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE NEARBY. N WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

KRM

&&

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271617
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...BUMPED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON
CURRENT WARMING TRENDS. SOME OF THE WARMEST LOCATION IN THE
MIDSOUTH MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

GENERALLY SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MIDSOUTH...WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THE COUNTIES NEAR THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF STRATOCU IS PERSISTING.
THERE IS A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR...WITH MID 20S IN
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 40S IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
WESTERLY WINDS WERE PROVIDING THE WARMER MIXING ACROSS THE DELTA.

THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST AND THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THUS THE AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY ALLOWING 925MB MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER
THE CLOUD COVER...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
MILD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY COOLS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NORTH HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING MEASURABLE. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RUN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DROPPING TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH GETTING CARVED OUT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TO FOLLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS WETTER WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO
BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENT. ONLY THE
EXCEPTION...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SUBFREEZING 925MB TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WANING DOWN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER AND WARMER.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND COOL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ALOFT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (27/12Z-28/12Z)

MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMKL BETWEEN 27/15Z AND
28/00Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NORTHERLY 10 KTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT
NE TO E TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 271617
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
1017 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...BUMPED TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BASED ON
CURRENT WARMING TRENDS. SOME OF THE WARMEST LOCATION IN THE
MIDSOUTH MAY CREEP INTO THE LOW 60S THIS AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF
THE REGION WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 506 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

GENERALLY SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MIDSOUTH...WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THE COUNTIES NEAR THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF STRATOCU IS PERSISTING.
THERE IS A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR...WITH MID 20S IN
NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 40S IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
WESTERLY WINDS WERE PROVIDING THE WARMER MIXING ACROSS THE DELTA.

THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST AND THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THUS THE AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY ALLOWING 925MB MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER
THE CLOUD COVER...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
MILD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY COOLS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NORTH HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING MEASURABLE. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RUN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DROPPING TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH GETTING CARVED OUT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TO FOLLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS WETTER WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO
BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENT. ONLY THE
EXCEPTION...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SUBFREEZING 925MB TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WANING DOWN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER AND WARMER.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND COOL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ALOFT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (27/12Z-28/12Z)

MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMKL BETWEEN 27/15Z AND
28/00Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NORTHERLY 10 KTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT
NE TO E TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS64 KMEG 271106 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
506 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 256 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

GENERALLY SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MIDSOUTH...WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THE COUNTIES NEAR THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF STRATOCU IS PERSISTING.
THERE IS A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR...WITH MID 20S
IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 40S IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
WESTERLY WINDS WERE PROVIDING THE WARMER MIXING ACROSS THE DELTA.

THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST AND THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THUS THE AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY ALLOWING 925MB MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER
THE CLOUD COVER...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
MILD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY COOLS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NORTH HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING MEASURABLE. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RUN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DROPPING TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH GETTING CARVED OUT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TO FOLLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS WETTER WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO
BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENT. ONLY THE
EXCEPTION...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SUBFREEZING 925MB TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WANING DOWN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER AND WARMER.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND COOL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ALOFT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (27/12Z-28/12Z)

MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMKL BETWEEN 27/15Z AND
28/00Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NORTHERLY 10 KTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT
NE TO E TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS64 KMEG 271106 AAA
AFDMEG

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
506 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

JCL

&&

.DISCUSSION...  /ISSUED 256 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015/

GENERALLY SKIES WERE CLEAR OVER THE MIDSOUTH...WITH THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING THE COUNTIES NEAR THE LOWER TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY...WHERE A QUASI-STATIONARY BAND OF STRATOCU IS PERSISTING.
THERE IS A LARGE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES THIS HOUR...WITH MID 20S
IN NORTHWEST TENNESSEE TO THE MID 40S IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI.
WESTERLY WINDS WERE PROVIDING THE WARMER MIXING ACROSS THE DELTA.

THE MIDSOUTH WILL REMAIN SANDWICHED BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WEST AND THE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER THE EAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THUS THE AREA WILL REMAIN STABLE AND DRY. LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL TURN A BIT MORE NORTHERLY TODAY ALLOWING 925MB MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND WESTERN KENTUCKY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN COUNTIES. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE MIDSOUTH WILL SEE
SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S UNDER
THE CLOUD COVER...WITH 50S ELSEWHERE. TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PERIOD WILL START OFF DRY AND
MILD...BEFORE A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY COOLS THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. LIGHT AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY WITH THE NORTH HAVING THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING SOMETHING MEASURABLE. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL RUN FIVE TO TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DROPPING TO A
FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DEEP
TROUGH GETTING CARVED OUT OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS THIS
PERIOD...WITH A PERIOD OF PHASING BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN AND
NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET. A MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
MIDSOUTH WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER SATURDAY...WITH RAIN TO FOLLOW
SATURDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY LOOKS WETTER WITH EACH MODEL RUN...SO
BUMPED UP RAIN CHANCES TO LIKELY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
COOL...BUT ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THE EVENT. ONLY THE
EXCEPTION...THE ECMWF IS SHOWING SUBFREEZING 925MB TEMPERATURES
GETTING INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE RAIN SHIELD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR SOME
LIGHT SNOW TO FORM OVER THE NORTH...THOUGH PRECIPITATION SHOULD
BE WANING DOWN AT THIS POINT. THE GFS IS A BIT QUICKER AND WARMER.
MONDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND COOL AS NORTHWEST FLOW RETURNS ALOFT.

JAB

&&

.AVIATION...

12Z TAF CYCLE (27/12Z-28/12Z)

MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KMKL BETWEEN 27/15Z AND
28/00Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS NORTHERLY 10 KTS TODAY BECOMING LIGHT
NE TO E TONIGHT.

JCL

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MO...NONE.
MS...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities