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000
FXUS62 KMFL 271149
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
649 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

..DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH REST OF THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A DRY COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY AND THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 70 BEFORE ONLY GETTING UP INTO MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FOR LATE THIS WEEK ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
OVER THE AREA. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK ALONG WITH KEEPING THE DRY
WEATHER IN PLACE.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA.

THE FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY THE
LONG RANGE MODELS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA
BRINGING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING AND
BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SPEEDS AGAIN INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO REMAIN
AROUND 7 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 7 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 FEET RANGE IN THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 1 PM EST TODAY AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE EXTENDED UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  51  66  54 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  53  68  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            72  54  69  57 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           68  52  66  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271149
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
649 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT...AND
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 240 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015/

..DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH REST OF THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A DRY COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY AND THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 70 BEFORE ONLY GETTING UP INTO MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FOR LATE THIS WEEK ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
OVER THE AREA. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK ALONG WITH KEEPING THE DRY
WEATHER IN PLACE.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA.

THE FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY THE
LONG RANGE MODELS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA
BRINGING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING AND
BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SPEEDS AGAIN INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO REMAIN
AROUND 7 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 7 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 FEET RANGE IN THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 1 PM EST TODAY AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE EXTENDED UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  51  66  54 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  53  68  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            72  54  69  57 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           68  52  66  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 270740
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
240 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

...DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH REST OF THIS WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A DRY COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY AND THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 70 BEFORE ONLY GETTING UP INTO MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FOR LATE THIS WEEK ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
OVER THE AREA. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK ALONG WITH KEEPING THE DRY
WEATHER IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA.

THE FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY THE
LONG RANGE MODELS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA
BRINGING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING AND
BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SPEEDS AGAIN INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO REMAIN
AROUND 7 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 7 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 FEET RANGE IN THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 1 PM EST TODAY AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE EXTENDED UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  51  66  54 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  53  68  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            72  54  69  57 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           68  52  66  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610-630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270740
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
240 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

...DRY AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH REST OF THIS WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST
TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A DRY COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY AND THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND
COOLER WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS TODAY WILL BE AROUND 70 BEFORE ONLY GETTING UP INTO MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT AND ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL
BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT 50S EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FOR LATE THIS WEEK ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
OVER THE AREA. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOW WARMING TREND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK ALONG WITH KEEPING THE DRY
WEATHER IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEFORE STALLING OUT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS
OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA.

THE FRONT SHOULD THEN MOVE BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST BY THE
LONG RANGE MODELS TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND MOVE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA
BRINGING IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE THIS MORNING AND
BECOME WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
SPEEDS AGAIN INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO REMAIN
AROUND 7 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 7 FEET BY THIS AFTERNOON AND
REMAIN IN THE 4 TO 6 FEET RANGE IN THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED
UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SCA FOR THE
GULF WATERS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 1 PM EST TODAY AND FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE EXTENDED UNTIL 7 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR THE GULF BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE
WESTERLY WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  51  66  54 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  53  68  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            72  54  69  57 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           68  52  66  46 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610-630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 270602
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
102 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...

NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DRY WNW FLOW WILL PERSIST AS A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND BECOMING GUSTY
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL REINFORCE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT...HAS CLEARED THE CWA...LEAVING BEHIND CLEARING SKIES
AND QUITE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOOSTED INTO THE
LOWER 70S...AS STRONGER CAA IS LACKING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...AS CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH/WEST OF
THE REGION...AND ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOL/DRY AIR ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT 40S FOR WIND CHILL VALUES EACH OF THE
NEXT THREE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS OVER INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH UPPER 40S/LOW 50S OVER THE METROPOLITAN/COASTAL
AREAS. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.
MAXIMA SHOULD AVERAGE 70F EACH AFTERNOON.

GUSTY WNW WINDS ALONG COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES WARRANTS A HIGH RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
EAST COAST BEACHES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY DEEP OVER
EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH ZONAL FLOW ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE END
OF JANUARY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS LIKELY FRIDAY...BUT WILL DO
LITTLE OTHER THAN RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...AND KEEP DRY AIR ENTRENCHED. ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS
DURING THE LONG TERM ARE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A FEW SHOWERS CANT BE
RULED OUT IN EASTERLY FLOW.

MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF 20 TO
30 KNOT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SCA OUT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
12Z...THEN HAZARDOUS SEAS WARRANT EXTENDING GULF WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AND ATLANTIC WATERS ADVISORY THROUGH 0Z
WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF STREAM MAY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM NW TO NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  53  67  55 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  55  69  57 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            70  55  68  57 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           68  53  66  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610-630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 270602
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
102 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.AVIATION...

NO CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THE 06Z TAF PACKAGE. VFR
CONDITIONS WITH DRY WNW FLOW WILL PERSIST AS A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 633 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND BECOMING GUSTY
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL REINFORCE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT...HAS CLEARED THE CWA...LEAVING BEHIND CLEARING SKIES
AND QUITE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOOSTED INTO THE
LOWER 70S...AS STRONGER CAA IS LACKING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...AS CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH/WEST OF
THE REGION...AND ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOL/DRY AIR ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT 40S FOR WIND CHILL VALUES EACH OF THE
NEXT THREE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS OVER INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH UPPER 40S/LOW 50S OVER THE METROPOLITAN/COASTAL
AREAS. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.
MAXIMA SHOULD AVERAGE 70F EACH AFTERNOON.

GUSTY WNW WINDS ALONG COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES WARRANTS A HIGH RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
EAST COAST BEACHES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY DEEP OVER
EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH ZONAL FLOW ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE END
OF JANUARY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS LIKELY FRIDAY...BUT WILL DO
LITTLE OTHER THAN RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...AND KEEP DRY AIR ENTRENCHED. ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS
DURING THE LONG TERM ARE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A FEW SHOWERS CANT BE
RULED OUT IN EASTERLY FLOW.

MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF 20 TO
30 KNOT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SCA OUT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
12Z...THEN HAZARDOUS SEAS WARRANT EXTENDING GULF WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AND ATLANTIC WATERS ADVISORY THROUGH 0Z
WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF STREAM MAY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM NW TO NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  53  67  55 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  55  69  57 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            70  55  68  57 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           68  53  66  48 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610-630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262333
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
633 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND BECOMING GUSTY
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL REINFORCE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT...HAS CLEARED THE CWA...LEAVING BEHIND CLEARING SKIES
AND QUITE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOOSTED INTO THE
LOWER 70S...AS STRONGER CAA IS LACKING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...AS CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH/WEST OF
THE REGION...AND ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOL/DRY AIR ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT 40S FOR WIND CHILL VALUES EACH OF THE
NEXT THREE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS OVER INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH UPPER 40S/LOW 50S OVER THE METROPOLITAN/COASTAL
AREAS. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.
MAXIMA SHOULD AVERAGE 70F EACH AFTERNOON.

GUSTY WNW WINDS ALONG COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES WARRANTS A HIGH RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
EAST COAST BEACHES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY DEEP OVER
EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH ZONAL FLOW ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE END
OF JANUARY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS LIKELY FRIDAY...BUT WILL DO
LITTLE OTHER THAN RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...AND KEEP DRY AIR ENTRENCHED. ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS
DURING THE LONG TERM ARE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A FEW SHOWERS CANT BE
RULED OUT IN EASTERLY FLOW.

MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF 20 TO
30 KNOT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SCA OUT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
12Z...THEN HAZARDOUS SEAS WARRANT EXTENDING GULF WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AND ATLANTIC WATERS ADVISORY THROUGH 0Z
WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF STREAM MAY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM NW TO NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  49  69  53  67 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  70  55  69 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            53  70  55  68 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           55  68  53  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262333
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
633 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO
AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN AND BECOMING GUSTY
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL REINFORCE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT...HAS CLEARED THE CWA...LEAVING BEHIND CLEARING SKIES
AND QUITE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOOSTED INTO THE
LOWER 70S...AS STRONGER CAA IS LACKING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...AS CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH/WEST OF
THE REGION...AND ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOL/DRY AIR ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT 40S FOR WIND CHILL VALUES EACH OF THE
NEXT THREE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS OVER INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH UPPER 40S/LOW 50S OVER THE METROPOLITAN/COASTAL
AREAS. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.
MAXIMA SHOULD AVERAGE 70F EACH AFTERNOON.

GUSTY WNW WINDS ALONG COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES WARRANTS A HIGH RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
EAST COAST BEACHES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY DEEP OVER
EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH ZONAL FLOW ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE END
OF JANUARY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS LIKELY FRIDAY...BUT WILL DO
LITTLE OTHER THAN RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...AND KEEP DRY AIR ENTRENCHED. ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS
DURING THE LONG TERM ARE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A FEW SHOWERS CANT BE
RULED OUT IN EASTERLY FLOW.

MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF 20 TO
30 KNOT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SCA OUT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
12Z...THEN HAZARDOUS SEAS WARRANT EXTENDING GULF WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AND ATLANTIC WATERS ADVISORY THROUGH 0Z
WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF STREAM MAY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM NW TO NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  49  69  53  67 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  70  55  69 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            53  70  55  68 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           55  68  53  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261950
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL REINFORCE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT...HAS CLEARED THE CWA...LEAVING BEHIND CLEARING SKIES
AND QUITE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOOSTED INTO THE
LOWER 70S...AS STRONGER CAA IS LACKING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...AS CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH/WEST OF
THE REGION...AND ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOL/DRY AIR ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT 40S FOR WIND CHILL VALUES EACH OF THE
NEXT THREE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS OVER INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH UPPER 40S/LOW 50S OVER THE METROPOLITAN/COASTAL
AREAS. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.
MAXIMA SHOULD AVERAGE 70F EACH AFTERNOON.

GUSTY WNW WINDS ALONG COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES WARRANTS A HIGH RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
EAST COAST BEACHES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY DEEP OVER
EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH ZONAL FLOW ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE END
OF JANUARY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS LIKELY FRIDAY...BUT WILL DO
LITTLE OTHER THAN RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...AND KEEP DRY AIR ENTRENCHED. ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS
DURING THE LONG TERM ARE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A FEW SHOWERS CANT BE
RULED OUT IN EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND FRONT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF 20 TO
30 KNOT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SCA OUT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
12Z...THEN HAZARDOUS SEAS WARRANT EXTENDING GULF WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AND ATLANTIC WATERS ADVISORY THROUGH 0Z
WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF STREAM MAY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM NW TO NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  49  69  53  67 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  70  55  69 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            53  70  55  68 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           55  68  53  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261950
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
250 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL REINFORCE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATE WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
INTO THE WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
FAIRLY ROBUST BAND OF SHOWERS THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT...HAS CLEARED THE CWA...LEAVING BEHIND CLEARING SKIES
AND QUITE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES HAVE BOOSTED INTO THE
LOWER 70S...AS STRONGER CAA IS LACKING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES
BEHIND INITIAL WIND SHIFT.

EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...AS CANADIAN SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED NORTH/WEST OF
THE REGION...AND ANOTHER REINFORCEMENT OF COOL/DRY AIR ARRIVES
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT 40S FOR WIND CHILL VALUES EACH OF THE
NEXT THREE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS OVER INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA...WITH UPPER 40S/LOW 50S OVER THE METROPOLITAN/COASTAL
AREAS. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR.
MAXIMA SHOULD AVERAGE 70F EACH AFTERNOON.

GUSTY WNW WINDS ALONG COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES WARRANTS A HIGH RISK
FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
EAST COAST BEACHES WILL INCREASE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN UNUSUALLY DEEP OVER
EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY FLATTEN FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH ZONAL FLOW ANTICIPATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY THIS
WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS FOR THE END
OF JANUARY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT IS LIKELY FRIDAY...BUT WILL DO
LITTLE OTHER THAN RETURN LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO A MORE NORTHERLY
DIRECTION...AND KEEP DRY AIR ENTRENCHED. ONLY MENTIONABLE POPS
DURING THE LONG TERM ARE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A FEW SHOWERS CANT BE
RULED OUT IN EASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND FRONT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL THEN
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS HAVE DETERIORATED FOLLOWING THE ARRIVAL OF 20 TO
30 KNOT WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS. SCA OUT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
12Z...THEN HAZARDOUS SEAS WARRANT EXTENDING GULF WATERS ADVISORY
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...AND ATLANTIC WATERS ADVISORY THROUGH 0Z
WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS SEAS IN AND NEAR THE GULF STREAM MAY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION FROM NW TO NE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  49  69  53  67 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  70  55  69 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            53  70  55  68 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           55  68  53  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261736
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1236 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LINE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES BEFORE
NOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...
CDFNT AS OF 14Z IS CLEARLY DEPICTED ON SATELLITE...RADAR...AND
SFC OB PLOT...LOCATED FROM NAPLES TO JUST NW OF WEST PALM BEACH.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NARROW BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT HAS PROVEN SUSTAINABLE AS IT CROSSED NORTHERN HALF OF CWA
EARLIER THIS MORNING...THUS RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN MARKEDLY
INCREASED FOR REMAINDER OF MORNING. SHOWERS DO CONTAIN SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. AFTER THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY/GRADUALLY FALL...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NNW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH
POSSIBLE.

HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR GULF
BEACHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...

WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING, WITH SOME 30 KT GUSTS AS COLD FRONT
OVER NORTH FLORIDA CROSSES THE PENINSULA BY THIS EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY TO FALL APART AS
IT DROPS SOUTH, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS OR SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
SURVIVE INTO APF. THIS IS EVEN LESS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH. PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AMERICA
WITH CURRENTLY A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AROUND 15Z AND JUST ABOUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
20Z THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT BUT DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY UP, THERE IS NOT MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN. THERE IS CURRENTLY A VERY NARROW LINE ALONG
THE FRONT (ABOUT 10 MILES WIDE) JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND
AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 30 MPH. THE NAM IS STILL
SUGGESTING 40-50% CHANCES OF RAIN NEAR THE LAKE THIS MORNING
DECREASING TO AROUND 20% ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST NEAR MIAMI.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DECREASING SUPPLY OF MOISTURE AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE MAIN LOW LIFTING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. SO WHAT THE NAM IS SUGGESTING IS SOMEWHAT
BELIEVABLE BUT QPF WILL REMAIN VERY LOW DUE TO THE ABOVE
DESCRIPTION OF THE LINE AND ITS FORWARD SPEED. IN ADDITION, NONE
OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE PWAT TO MUCH MORE THAN
0.75" OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA SO ANY CHANCE OF RAIN INDEED LOOKS
VERY MINIMAL.

MOST OF THE COLD PUSH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOL AIR FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING CLOSELY EQUALING THE READINGS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 5 TO 10 MPH NORTHWEST WIND
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 40S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXPECT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG BOTH COASTS. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BY
THIS WEEKEND RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR
LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SAGS SOUTH AND THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL IT GET. NO MATTER OF ITS POSITION, THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF VEERING THE WIND TO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BUT
AT ANY RATE, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OR MOISTURE RETURN SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS
PLEASANT AND DRY.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND THEN ALL WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
BUILDING WIND AND SEAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE WIND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND SEAS SUBSIDE. THEREFORE, A SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS. THE SCA WILL EXTEND UNTIL 09Z TUESDAY AND AT THAT TIME
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE ATLANTIC WITH DELAYED
SUBSIDING OF THE GULF STREAM WATERS. A RETURN TO A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL BEGIN ON LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  68  52  67 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  69  54  68 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            53  70  55  69 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           55  67  54  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261736
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1236 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. LINE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVED THROUGH THE TAF SITES BEFORE
NOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15
KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE EXPECTED UNTIL THIS EVENING. WINDS
WILL THEN DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 929 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

UPDATE...
CDFNT AS OF 14Z IS CLEARLY DEPICTED ON SATELLITE...RADAR...AND
SFC OB PLOT...LOCATED FROM NAPLES TO JUST NW OF WEST PALM BEACH.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NARROW BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT HAS PROVEN SUSTAINABLE AS IT CROSSED NORTHERN HALF OF CWA
EARLIER THIS MORNING...THUS RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN MARKEDLY
INCREASED FOR REMAINDER OF MORNING. SHOWERS DO CONTAIN SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. AFTER THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY/GRADUALLY FALL...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NNW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH
POSSIBLE.

HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR GULF
BEACHES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...

WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING, WITH SOME 30 KT GUSTS AS COLD FRONT
OVER NORTH FLORIDA CROSSES THE PENINSULA BY THIS EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY TO FALL APART AS
IT DROPS SOUTH, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS OR SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
SURVIVE INTO APF. THIS IS EVEN LESS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH. PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AMERICA
WITH CURRENTLY A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AROUND 15Z AND JUST ABOUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
20Z THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT BUT DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY UP, THERE IS NOT MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN. THERE IS CURRENTLY A VERY NARROW LINE ALONG
THE FRONT (ABOUT 10 MILES WIDE) JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND
AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 30 MPH. THE NAM IS STILL
SUGGESTING 40-50% CHANCES OF RAIN NEAR THE LAKE THIS MORNING
DECREASING TO AROUND 20% ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST NEAR MIAMI.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DECREASING SUPPLY OF MOISTURE AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE MAIN LOW LIFTING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. SO WHAT THE NAM IS SUGGESTING IS SOMEWHAT
BELIEVABLE BUT QPF WILL REMAIN VERY LOW DUE TO THE ABOVE
DESCRIPTION OF THE LINE AND ITS FORWARD SPEED. IN ADDITION, NONE
OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE PWAT TO MUCH MORE THAN
0.75" OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA SO ANY CHANCE OF RAIN INDEED LOOKS
VERY MINIMAL.

MOST OF THE COLD PUSH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOL AIR FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING CLOSELY EQUALING THE READINGS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 5 TO 10 MPH NORTHWEST WIND
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 40S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXPECT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG BOTH COASTS. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BY
THIS WEEKEND RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR
LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SAGS SOUTH AND THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL IT GET. NO MATTER OF ITS POSITION, THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF VEERING THE WIND TO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BUT
AT ANY RATE, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OR MOISTURE RETURN SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS
PLEASANT AND DRY.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND THEN ALL WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
BUILDING WIND AND SEAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE WIND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND SEAS SUBSIDE. THEREFORE, A SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS. THE SCA WILL EXTEND UNTIL 09Z TUESDAY AND AT THAT TIME
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE ATLANTIC WITH DELAYED
SUBSIDING OF THE GULF STREAM WATERS. A RETURN TO A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL BEGIN ON LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  68  52  67 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  69  54  68 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            53  70  55  69 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           55  67  54  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261429
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
929 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CDFNT AS OF 14Z IS CLEARLY DEPICTED ON SATELLITE...RADAR...AND
SFC OB PLOT...LOCATED FROM NAPLES TO JUST NW OF WEST PALM BEACH.
THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST AND EXIT SE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. NARROW BAND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE
FRONT HAS PROVEN SUSTAINABLE AS IT CROSSED NORTHERN HALF OF CWA
EARLIER THIS MORNING...THUS RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN MARKEDLY
INCREASED FOR REMAINDER OF MORNING. SHOWERS DO CONTAIN SOME WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH. AFTER THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
STEADY/GRADUALLY FALL...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. NNW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH
POSSIBLE.

HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT FOR GULF
BEACHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

AVIATION...

WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING, WITH SOME 30 KT GUSTS AS COLD FRONT
OVER NORTH FLORIDA CROSSES THE PENINSULA BY THIS EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY TO FALL APART AS
IT DROPS SOUTH, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS OR SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
SURVIVE INTO APF. THIS IS EVEN LESS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH. PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AMERICA
WITH CURRENTLY A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AROUND 15Z AND JUST ABOUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
20Z THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT BUT DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY UP, THERE IS NOT MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN. THERE IS CURRENTLY A VERY NARROW LINE ALONG
THE FRONT (ABOUT 10 MILES WIDE) JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND
AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 30 MPH. THE NAM IS STILL
SUGGESTING 40-50% CHANCES OF RAIN NEAR THE LAKE THIS MORNING
DECREASING TO AROUND 20% ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST NEAR MIAMI.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DECREASING SUPPLY OF MOISTURE AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE MAIN LOW LIFTING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. SO WHAT THE NAM IS SUGGESTING IS SOMEWHAT
BELIEVABLE BUT QPF WILL REMAIN VERY LOW DUE TO THE ABOVE
DESCRIPTION OF THE LINE AND ITS FORWARD SPEED. IN ADDITION, NONE
OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE PWAT TO MUCH MORE THAN
0.75" OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA SO ANY CHANCE OF RAIN INDEED LOOKS
VERY MINIMAL.

MOST OF THE COLD PUSH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOL AIR FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING CLOSELY EQUALING THE READINGS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 5 TO 10 MPH NORTHWEST WIND
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 40S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXPECT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG BOTH COASTS. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BY
THIS WEEKEND RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR
LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SAGS SOUTH AND THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL IT GET. NO MATTER OF ITS POSITION, THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF VEERING THE WIND TO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BUT
AT ANY RATE, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OR MOISTURE RETURN SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS
PLEASANT AND DRY.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND THEN ALL WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
BUILDING WIND AND SEAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE WIND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND SEAS SUBSIDE. THEREFORE, A SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS. THE SCA WILL EXTEND UNTIL 09Z TUESDAY AND AT THAT TIME
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE ATLANTIC WITH DELAYED
SUBSIDING OF THE GULF STREAM WATERS. A RETURN TO A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL BEGIN ON LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  51  68  52 /  50   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  52  69  54 /  40   0   0   0
MIAMI            74  53  70  55 /  40   0   0   0
NAPLES           70  55  67  54 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261047
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
547 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...

WINDS INCREASING THIS MORNING, WITH SOME 30 KT GUSTS AS COLD FRONT
OVER NORTH FLORIDA CROSSES THE PENINSULA BY THIS EARLY AFTERNOON.
EXPECTING MUCH OF THE PRECIP NEAR THIS BOUNDARY TO FALL APART AS
IT DROPS SOUTH, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS OR SOME MVFR CIGS MAY
SURVIVE INTO APF. THIS IS EVEN LESS LIKELY FURTHER SOUTH. PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES AND WINDS WEAKEN INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 310 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AMERICA
WITH CURRENTLY A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AROUND 15Z AND JUST ABOUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
20Z THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT BUT DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY UP, THERE IS NOT MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN. THERE IS CURRENTLY A VERY NARROW LINE ALONG
THE FRONT (ABOUT 10 MILES WIDE) JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND
AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 30 MPH. THE NAM IS STILL
SUGGESTING 40-50% CHANCES OF RAIN NEAR THE LAKE THIS MORNING
DECREASING TO AROUND 20% ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST NEAR MIAMI.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DECREASING SUPPLY OF MOISTURE AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE MAIN LOW LIFTING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. SO WHAT THE NAM IS SUGGESTING IS SOMEWHAT
BELIEVABLE BUT QPF WILL REMAIN VERY LOW DUE TO THE ABOVE
DESCRIPTION OF THE LINE AND ITS FORWARD SPEED. IN ADDITION, NONE
OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE PWAT TO MUCH MORE THAN
0.75" OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA SO ANY CHANCE OF RAIN INDEED LOOKS
VERY MINIMAL.

MOST OF THE COLD PUSH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOL AIR FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING CLOSELY EQUALING THE READINGS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 5 TO 10 MPH NORTHWEST WIND
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 40S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXPECT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG BOTH COASTS. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BY
THIS WEEKEND RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR
LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SAGS SOUTH AND THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL IT GET. NO MATTER OF ITS POSITION, THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF VEERING THE WIND TO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BUT
AT ANY RATE, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OR MOISTURE RETURN SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS
PLEASANT AND DRY.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND THEN ALL WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
BUILDING WIND AND SEAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE WIND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND SEAS SUBSIDE. THEREFORE, A SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS. THE SCA WILL EXTEND UNTIL 09Z TUESDAY AND AT THAT TIME
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE ATLANTIC WITH DELAYED
SUBSIDING OF THE GULF STREAM WATERS. A RETURN TO A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL BEGIN ON LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  51  68  52 /  20   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  52  69  54 /  20   0   0   0
MIAMI            74  53  70  55 /  20   0   0   0
NAPLES           70  55  67  54 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 260810
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
310 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AMERICA
WITH CURRENTLY A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AROUND 15Z AND JUST ABOUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
20Z THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT BUT DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY UP, THERE IS NOT MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN. THERE IS CURRENTLY A VERY NARROW LINE ALONG
THE FRONT (ABOUT 10 MILES WIDE) JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND
AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 30 MPH. THE NAM IS STILL
SUGGESTING 40-50% CHANCES OF RAIN NEAR THE LAKE THIS MORNING
DECREASING TO AROUND 20% ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST NEAR MIAMI.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DECREASING SUPPLY OF MOISTURE AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE MAIN LOW LIFTING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. SO WHAT THE NAM IS SUGGESTING IS SOMEWHAT
BELIEVABLE BUT QPF WILL REMAIN VERY LOW DUE TO THE ABOVE
DESCRIPTION OF THE LINE AND ITS FORWARD SPEED. IN ADDITION, NONE
OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE PWAT TO MUCH MORE THAN
0.75" OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA SO ANY CHANCE OF RAIN INDEED LOOKS
VERY MINIMAL.

MOST OF THE COLD PUSH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOL AIR FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING CLOSELY EQUALING THE READINGS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 5 TO 10 MPH NORTHWEST WIND
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 40S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXPECT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG BOTH COASTS. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BY
THIS WEEKEND RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR
LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SAGS SOUTH AND THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL IT GET. NO MATTER OF ITS POSITION, THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF VEERING THE WIND TO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BUT
AT ANY RATE, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OR MOISTURE RETURN SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS
PLEASANT AND DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND THEN ALL WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
BUILDING WIND AND SEAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE WIND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND SEAS SUBSIDE. THEREFORE, A SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS. THE SCA WILL EXTEND UNTIL 09Z TUESDAY AND AT THAT TIME
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE ATLANTIC WITH DELAYED
SUBSIDING OF THE GULF STREAM WATERS. A RETURN TO A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL BEGIN ON LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  51  68  52 /  20   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  52  69  54 /  20   0   0   0
MIAMI            74  53  70  55 /  20   0   0   0
NAPLES           70  55  67  54 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 260810
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
310 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
A VERY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH AMERICA
WITH CURRENTLY A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION COVERING THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CONTINENT. A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ITS ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AROUND 15Z AND JUST ABOUT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY
20Z THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT BUT DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW
FROM THE SURFACE ALL THE WAY UP, THERE IS NOT MUCH OPPORTUNITY FOR
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN. THERE IS CURRENTLY A VERY NARROW LINE ALONG
THE FRONT (ABOUT 10 MILES WIDE) JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND
AND IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 30 MPH. THE NAM IS STILL
SUGGESTING 40-50% CHANCES OF RAIN NEAR THE LAKE THIS MORNING
DECREASING TO AROUND 20% ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST NEAR MIAMI.
MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW A DECREASING SUPPLY OF MOISTURE AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE MAIN LOW LIFTING WELL TO
THE NORTHEAST. SO WHAT THE NAM IS SUGGESTING IS SOMEWHAT
BELIEVABLE BUT QPF WILL REMAIN VERY LOW DUE TO THE ABOVE
DESCRIPTION OF THE LINE AND ITS FORWARD SPEED. IN ADDITION, NONE
OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INCREASE THE PWAT TO MUCH MORE THAN
0.75" OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA SO ANY CHANCE OF RAIN INDEED LOOKS
VERY MINIMAL.

MOST OF THE COLD PUSH WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH
AND THIS WILL BE MOSTLY A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOL AIR FLOW WITH
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY MORNING CLOSELY EQUALING THE READINGS OF
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A 5 TO 10 MPH NORTHWEST WIND
TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER SPEEDS ALONG THE WEST AND EAST COASTS.
THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE 40S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXPECT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG BOTH COASTS. SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A RETURN TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WITH
THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL BEGIN A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES BY
THIS WEEKEND RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR
LATE JANUARY AND EARLY FEBRUARY. A MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING
THROUGH NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS WEEK WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. IT WILL BECOME DIFFUSE
OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SAGS SOUTH AND THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL IT GET. NO MATTER OF ITS POSITION, THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF RETURN TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW ON FRIDAY WITH BOTH THE GFS
AND ECMWF VEERING THE WIND TO THE NORTHEAST AGAIN ON SATURDAY. BUT
AT ANY RATE, IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE ANY
TEMPERATURE CHANGE OR MOISTURE RETURN SO THE WEEKEND LOOKS
PLEASANT AND DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE THIS MORNING OVER
THE GULF WATERS AND THEN ALL WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
BUILDING WIND AND SEAS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CREATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT BEFORE THE WIND BEGINS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AND SEAS SUBSIDE. THEREFORE, A SCA WILL BE ISSUED FOR ALL LOCAL
WATERS. THE SCA WILL EXTEND UNTIL 09Z TUESDAY AND AT THAT TIME
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE ATLANTIC WITH DELAYED
SUBSIDING OF THE GULF STREAM WATERS. A RETURN TO A NORTHEAST WIND
WILL BEGIN ON LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  51  68  52 /  20   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  52  69  54 /  20   0   0   0
MIAMI            74  53  70  55 /  20   0   0   0
NAPLES           70  55  67  54 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260547
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1247 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT ARRIVING TOMORROW MORNING, WILL PRODUCE SOME 30 KT
GUSTS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH RAIN TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS. MAIN FORECAST QUESTION WILL BE MVFR CIGS NEAR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SREF PROBS GO ABOUT 50 PERCENT FOR MVFR CIGS FROM 15Z-18Z
THROUGH THE REGION. LAMP GUIDANCE IS DECIDEDLY AGAINST WITH 5KFT
CIGS. LLVLS ARE VERY DRY AND THIS WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD MVFR, ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY BY
LATE AFTERNOON, AND ALTHOUGH GUSTS BACK DOWN, 10-15KT SUSTAINED
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT
SHRA OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS LOOK TO GUSTY TO BETWEEN 25
AND 30 KTS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTH WEST, AFTER 15Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO
BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE THE LAST
REASONABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS ALONG
COASTAL BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES BARELY TOUCHING 70
DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS IT
DOES...IT WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AREA WIDE FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS SURGE SHOULD PRODUCE MINIMUM WIND
CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS
GLADES...HENDRY...AND COLLIER COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BY THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME
TO RETURN RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR DEPICTION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF DIGS AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE UPPER ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH THUS STALLING
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS AS HIGH AS 10-12 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS MONDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH GULF STREAM SEAS SUBSEQUENTLY REACHING
AROUND 7-9 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND
AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  51  68  52 /  30   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  52  69  54 /  20   0   0   0
MIAMI            74  53  70  55 /  20   0   0   0
NAPLES           70  55  67  54 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 260547
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1247 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.AVIATION...
COLD FRONT ARRIVING TOMORROW MORNING, WILL PRODUCE SOME 30 KT
GUSTS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS, ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH RAIN TO INCLUDE
IN TAFS. MAIN FORECAST QUESTION WILL BE MVFR CIGS NEAR THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. SREF PROBS GO ABOUT 50 PERCENT FOR MVFR CIGS FROM 15Z-18Z
THROUGH THE REGION. LAMP GUIDANCE IS DECIDEDLY AGAINST WITH 5KFT
CIGS. LLVLS ARE VERY DRY AND THIS WOULD SEEM TO PRECLUDE
PERSISTENT WIDESPREAD MVFR, ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF PERIODS ARE
POSSIBLE NEAR ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP. SKIES CLEAR QUICKLY BY
LATE AFTERNOON, AND ALTHOUGH GUSTS BACK DOWN, 10-15KT SUSTAINED
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT
SHRA OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS LOOK TO GUSTY TO BETWEEN 25
AND 30 KTS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTH WEST, AFTER 15Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO
BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE THE LAST
REASONABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS ALONG
COASTAL BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES BARELY TOUCHING 70
DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS IT
DOES...IT WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AREA WIDE FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS SURGE SHOULD PRODUCE MINIMUM WIND
CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS
GLADES...HENDRY...AND COLLIER COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BY THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME
TO RETURN RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR DEPICTION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF DIGS AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE UPPER ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH THUS STALLING
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS AS HIGH AS 10-12 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS MONDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH GULF STREAM SEAS SUBSEQUENTLY REACHING
AROUND 7-9 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND
AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  51  68  52 /  30   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  52  69  54 /  20   0   0   0
MIAMI            74  53  70  55 /  20   0   0   0
NAPLES           70  55  67  54 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252345
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
645 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT
SHRA OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS LOOK TO GUSTY TO BETWEEN 25
AND 30 KTS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTH WEST, AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO
BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE THE LAST
REASONABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS ALONG
COASTAL BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES BARELY TOUCHING 70
DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS IT
DOES...IT WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AREA WIDE FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS SURGE SHOULD PRODUCE MINIMUM WIND
CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS
GLADES...HENDRY...AND COLLIER COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BY THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME
TO RETURN RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR DEPICTION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF DIGS AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE UPPER ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH THUS STALLING
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS AS HIGH AS 10-12 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS MONDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH GULF STREAM SEAS SUBSEQUENTLY REACHING
AROUND 7-9 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND
AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  54  72  51  68 /  10  30   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  56  73  52  69 /   0  20   0   0
MIAMI            56  74  53  70 /   0  20   0   0
NAPLES           59  70  55  67 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252345
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
645 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER, IT IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY DRY, WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS. HAVE KEPT
SHRA OUT OF THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS. THE WINDS LOOK TO GUSTY TO BETWEEN 25
AND 30 KTS FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY TOMORROW OUT OF THE WEST TO
NORTH WEST, AFTER 15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO
BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE THE LAST
REASONABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS ALONG
COASTAL BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES BARELY TOUCHING 70
DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS IT
DOES...IT WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AREA WIDE FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS SURGE SHOULD PRODUCE MINIMUM WIND
CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS
GLADES...HENDRY...AND COLLIER COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BY THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME
TO RETURN RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR DEPICTION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF DIGS AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE UPPER ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH THUS STALLING
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS AS HIGH AS 10-12 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS MONDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH GULF STREAM SEAS SUBSEQUENTLY REACHING
AROUND 7-9 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND
AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  54  72  51  68 /  10  30   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  56  73  52  69 /   0  20   0   0
MIAMI            56  74  53  70 /   0  20   0   0
NAPLES           59  70  55  67 /  20  30   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 252039
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
339 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO
BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE THE LAST
REASONABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS ALONG
COASTAL BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES BARELY TOUCHING 70
DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS IT
DOES...IT WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AREA WIDE FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS SURGE SHOULD PRODUCE MINIMUM WIND
CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS
GLADES...HENDRY...AND COLLIER COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BY THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME
TO RETURN RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR DEPICTION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF DIGS AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE UPPER ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH THUS STALLING
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WITH
SECOND WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW MOISTURE WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA BUT MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS MOST NOTICEABLE
TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN MOSTLY IN VFR RANGE WITH MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS AT APF IN
THE MORNING. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM TAF SITES
IN THE MORNING BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY LEFT ANY MENTION OF IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES. NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE BUT GIVEN
ENSEMBLES AND BLEND OF THESE WILL DEAL WITH IT AS STATED FOR THE
MOMENT.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASING MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW AND WEST BY TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZE
CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING (WESTERLY WINDS 15-20
KNOTS AND GUSTY).

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS AS HIGH AS 10-12 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS MONDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH GULF STREAM SEAS SUBSEQUENTLY REACHING
AROUND 7-9 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND
AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  73  49  67 /   0  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  55  74  51  68 /   0  20  10   0
MIAMI            55  75  52  69 /   0  20  10   0
NAPLES           58  71  52  67 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...52/PS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 252039
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
339 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 60S ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS AFTERNOON UNDER SUNNY SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHWEST LATER TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
LATE MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TO
BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

RAIN CHANCES WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD ALSO BE THE LAST
REASONABLE CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS DRY
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. NORTHWEST
FLOW SHOULD INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUESDAY KEEPING HIGH
TEMPERATURES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S WITH A FEW SPOTS ALONG
COASTAL BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES BARELY TOUCHING 70
DEGREES. BY WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SURGE SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AS IT
DOES...IT WILL PUSH A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S AREA WIDE FOR THE SECOND CONSECUTIVE DAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THIS SURGE SHOULD PRODUCE MINIMUM WIND
CHILL READINGS AS LOW AS THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S ACROSS
GLADES...HENDRY...AND COLLIER COUNTIES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

BY THURSDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH SLIDES TO THE EAST AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL ALLOW A MORE EASTERLY FLOW REGIME
TO RETURN RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK...ALBEIT STILL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

LONG RANGE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR DEPICTION OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF DIGS AN H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH SOUTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE FRIDAY. THIS ALLOWS A COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS ON THE
OTHER HAND KEEPS THE UPPER ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTH THUS STALLING
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THE SAME
TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WITH
SECOND WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW MOISTURE WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA BUT MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS MOST NOTICEABLE
TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN MOSTLY IN VFR RANGE WITH MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS AT APF IN
THE MORNING. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM TAF SITES
IN THE MORNING BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY LEFT ANY MENTION OF IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES. NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE BUT GIVEN
ENSEMBLES AND BLEND OF THESE WILL DEAL WITH IT AS STATED FOR THE
MOMENT.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASING MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW AND WEST BY TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZE
CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING (WESTERLY WINDS 15-20
KNOTS AND GUSTY).

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA. SEAS AS HIGH AS 10-12 FEET
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS MONDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH GULF STREAM SEAS SUBSEQUENTLY REACHING
AROUND 7-9 FEET BY TUESDAY MORNING LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. WIND
AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  73  49  67 /   0  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  55  74  51  68 /   0  20  10   0
MIAMI            55  75  52  69 /   0  20  10   0
NAPLES           58  71  52  67 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1254 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WITH
SECOND WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW MOISTURE WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA BUT MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS MOST NOTICEABLE
TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN MOSTLY IN VFR RANGE WITH MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS AT APF IN
THE MORNING. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM TAF SITES
IN THE MORNING BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY LEFT ANY MENTION OF IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES. NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE BUT GIVEN
ENSEMBLES AND BLEND OF THESE WILL DEAL WITH IT AS STATED FOR THE
MOMENT.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASING MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW AND WEST BY TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZE
CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING (WESTERLY WINDS 15-20
KNOTS AND GUSTY).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...

VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. POSSIBLY A FEW HOURS OF A SEA
BREEZE AT KPBI/KFXE/KFLL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WEST WINDS
TONIGHT AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WELL
SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
A COOL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RUN 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE PENINSULA
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH A MORNING CHILL
(SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE) WITH WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S OR THE 70 DEGREE MARK. TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY, A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS BUT HAVE BECOME RATHER BULLISH IN
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NAM
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY HINTING AT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS JUST DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE FOR
A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL, THIS IS QUITE A COMMON PATTERN
DURING THE WINTER SEASON TO HAVE A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT. DURING THESE PHASES, THE FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE TO WELL ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST MAKING IT
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. AND SECOND OF ALL, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM ARE SHOWING AN EXTREMELY
BRIEF INCREASE OF PWAT AT JUST OVER AN INCH. SO FOR THESE REASONS,
I CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE POP GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THIS MORNING WITH
EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT THE LOWER AND MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION CONTINUING THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WITH THE
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO MOVING LITTLE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ONCE AGAIN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO 70 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS COMING IN
OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE 10 FOOT WAVES IN THE
GULF WATERS AND 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  53  73  49 /   0   0  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  55  74  51 /   0   0  20  10
MIAMI            71  55  75  52 /   0   0  20  10
NAPLES           66  58  71  52 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...52/PS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 251754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1254 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY. WITH
SECOND WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH TOMORROW MOISTURE WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA BUT MOSTLY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS MOST NOTICEABLE
TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
REMAIN MOSTLY IN VFR RANGE WITH MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS AT APF IN
THE MORNING. LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM TAF SITES
IN THE MORNING BUT GIVEN UNCERTAINTY LEFT ANY MENTION OF IT OUT OF
THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME AND WILL AMEND AS NEEDED WITH FUTURE
UPDATES. NAM IS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE BUT GIVEN
ENSEMBLES AND BLEND OF THESE WILL DEAL WITH IT AS STATED FOR THE
MOMENT.

WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON
INCREASING MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THEN SSW AND WEST BY TOMORROW
MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WITH SYSTEM ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN BREEZE
CONDITIONS BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING (WESTERLY WINDS 15-20
KNOTS AND GUSTY).

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

UPDATE...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...

VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. POSSIBLY A FEW HOURS OF A SEA
BREEZE AT KPBI/KFXE/KFLL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WEST WINDS
TONIGHT AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WELL
SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
A COOL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RUN 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE PENINSULA
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH A MORNING CHILL
(SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE) WITH WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S OR THE 70 DEGREE MARK. TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY, A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS BUT HAVE BECOME RATHER BULLISH IN
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NAM
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY HINTING AT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS JUST DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE FOR
A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL, THIS IS QUITE A COMMON PATTERN
DURING THE WINTER SEASON TO HAVE A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT. DURING THESE PHASES, THE FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE TO WELL ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST MAKING IT
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. AND SECOND OF ALL, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM ARE SHOWING AN EXTREMELY
BRIEF INCREASE OF PWAT AT JUST OVER AN INCH. SO FOR THESE REASONS,
I CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE POP GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THIS MORNING WITH
EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT THE LOWER AND MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION CONTINUING THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WITH THE
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO MOVING LITTLE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ONCE AGAIN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO 70 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS COMING IN
OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE 10 FOOT WAVES IN THE
GULF WATERS AND 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  53  73  49 /   0   0  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  55  74  51 /   0   0  20  10
MIAMI            71  55  75  52 /   0   0  20  10
NAPLES           66  58  71  52 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251546
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1046 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...

VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. POSSIBLY A FEW HOURS OF A SEA
BREEZE AT KPBI/KFXE/KFLL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WEST WINDS
TONIGHT AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WELL
SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
A COOL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RUN 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE PENINSULA
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH A MORNING CHILL
(SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE) WITH WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S OR THE 70 DEGREE MARK. TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY, A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS BUT HAVE BECOME RATHER BULLISH IN
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NAM
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY HINTING AT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS JUST DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE FOR
A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL, THIS IS QUITE A COMMON PATTERN
DURING THE WINTER SEASON TO HAVE A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT. DURING THESE PHASES, THE FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE TO WELL ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST MAKING IT
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. AND SECOND OF ALL, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM ARE SHOWING AN EXTREMELY
BRIEF INCREASE OF PWAT AT JUST OVER AN INCH. SO FOR THESE REASONS,
I CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE POP GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THIS MORNING WITH
EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT THE LOWER AND MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION CONTINUING THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WITH THE
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO MOVING LITTLE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ONCE AGAIN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO 70 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS COMING IN
OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE 10 FOOT WAVES IN THE
GULF WATERS AND 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  53  73  49 /   0   0  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  55  74  51 /   0   0  20  10
MIAMI            71  55  75  52 /   0   0  20  10
NAPLES           66  58  71  52 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251546
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1046 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. ONLY ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
THE ONGOING FORECAST WERE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE
LATEST TRENDS. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 553 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

AVIATION...

VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. POSSIBLY A FEW HOURS OF A SEA
BREEZE AT KPBI/KFXE/KFLL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WEST WINDS
TONIGHT AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WELL
SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
A COOL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RUN 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE PENINSULA
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH A MORNING CHILL
(SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE) WITH WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S OR THE 70 DEGREE MARK. TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY, A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS BUT HAVE BECOME RATHER BULLISH IN
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NAM
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY HINTING AT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS JUST DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE FOR
A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL, THIS IS QUITE A COMMON PATTERN
DURING THE WINTER SEASON TO HAVE A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT. DURING THESE PHASES, THE FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE TO WELL ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST MAKING IT
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. AND SECOND OF ALL, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM ARE SHOWING AN EXTREMELY
BRIEF INCREASE OF PWAT AT JUST OVER AN INCH. SO FOR THESE REASONS,
I CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE POP GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THIS MORNING WITH
EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT THE LOWER AND MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION CONTINUING THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WITH THE
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO MOVING LITTLE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ONCE AGAIN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO 70 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS COMING IN
OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE 10 FOOT WAVES IN THE
GULF WATERS AND 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  53  73  49 /   0   0  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  55  74  51 /   0   0  20  10
MIAMI            71  55  75  52 /   0   0  20  10
NAPLES           66  58  71  52 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 251053
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
553 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. POSSIBLY A FEW HOURS OF A SEA
BREEZE AT KPBI/KFXE/KFLL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WEST WINDS
TONIGHT AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WELL
SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
A COOL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RUN 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE PENINSULA
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH A MORNING CHILL
(SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE) WITH WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S OR THE 70 DEGREE MARK. TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY, A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS BUT HAVE BECOME RATHER BULLISH IN
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NAM
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY HINTING AT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS JUST DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE FOR
A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL, THIS IS QUITE A COMMON PATTERN
DURING THE WINTER SEASON TO HAVE A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT. DURING THESE PHASES, THE FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE TO WELL ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST MAKING IT
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. AND SECOND OF ALL, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM ARE SHOWING AN EXTREMELY
BRIEF INCREASE OF PWAT AT JUST OVER AN INCH. SO FOR THESE REASONS,
I CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE POP GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THIS MORNING WITH
EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT THE LOWER AND MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION CONTINUING THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WITH THE
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO MOVING LITTLE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ONCE AGAIN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO 70 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS COMING IN
OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE 10 FOOT WAVES IN THE
GULF WATERS AND 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  53  73  49 /   0   0  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  55  74  51 /   0   0  20  10
MIAMI            71  55  75  52 /   0   0  20  10
NAPLES           66  58  71  52 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251053
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
553 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. POSSIBLY A FEW HOURS OF A SEA
BREEZE AT KPBI/KFXE/KFLL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT WEST WINDS
TONIGHT AS SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAM ACROSS THE TERMINALS, WELL
SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
A COOL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RUN 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE PENINSULA
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH A MORNING CHILL
(SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE) WITH WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S OR THE 70 DEGREE MARK. TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY, A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS BUT HAVE BECOME RATHER BULLISH IN
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NAM
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY HINTING AT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS JUST DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE FOR
A COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL, THIS IS QUITE A COMMON PATTERN
DURING THE WINTER SEASON TO HAVE A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT. DURING THESE PHASES, THE FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE TO WELL ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST MAKING IT
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. AND SECOND OF ALL, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM ARE SHOWING AN EXTREMELY
BRIEF INCREASE OF PWAT AT JUST OVER AN INCH. SO FOR THESE REASONS,
I CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE POP GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THIS MORNING WITH
EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT THE LOWER AND MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION CONTINUING THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WITH THE
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO MOVING LITTLE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ONCE AGAIN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO 70 DEGREES.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS COMING IN
OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE 10 FOOT WAVES IN THE
GULF WATERS AND 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  53  73  49 /   0   0  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  55  74  51 /   0   0  20  10
MIAMI            71  55  75  52 /   0   0  20  10
NAPLES           66  58  71  52 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 250812
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
312 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
A COOL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RUN 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE PENINSULA
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH A MORNING CHILL
(SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE) WITH WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S OR THE 70 DEGREE MARK. TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY, A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS BUT HAVE BECOME RATHER BULLISH IN
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NAM
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY HINTING AT NUMEROUS SHOWERSALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS JUST DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE FOR A
COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL, THIS IS A QUITE COMMON PATTERN
DURING THE WINTER SEASON TO HAVE A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT. DURING THESE PHASES, THE FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE TO WELL ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST MAKING IT
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. AND SECOND OF ALL, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM ARE SHOWING AN EXTREMELY
BRIEF INCREASE OF PWAT AT JUST OVER AN INCH. SO FOR THESE REASONS,
I CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE POP GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THIS MORNING WITH
EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT THE LOWER AND MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION CONTINUING THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WITH THE
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO MOVING LITTLE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ONCE AGAIN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO 70 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS COMING IN
OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE 10 FOOT WAVES IN THE
GULF WATERS AND 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  53  73  49 /   0   0  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  55  74  51 /   0   0  20  10
MIAMI            71  55  75  52 /   0   0  20  10
NAPLES           66  58  71  52 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 250812
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
312 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
A COOL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RUN 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE PENINSULA
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH A MORNING CHILL
(SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE) WITH WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S OR THE 70 DEGREE MARK. TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY, A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS BUT HAVE BECOME RATHER BULLISH IN
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NAM
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY HINTING AT NUMEROUS SHOWERSALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS JUST DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE FOR A
COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL, THIS IS A QUITE COMMON PATTERN
DURING THE WINTER SEASON TO HAVE A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT. DURING THESE PHASES, THE FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE TO WELL ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST MAKING IT
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. AND SECOND OF ALL, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM ARE SHOWING AN EXTREMELY
BRIEF INCREASE OF PWAT AT JUST OVER AN INCH. SO FOR THESE REASONS,
I CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE POP GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THIS MORNING WITH
EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT THE LOWER AND MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION CONTINUING THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WITH THE
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO MOVING LITTLE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ONCE AGAIN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO 70 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS COMING IN
OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE 10 FOOT WAVES IN THE
GULF WATERS AND 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  53  73  49 /   0   0  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  55  74  51 /   0   0  20  10
MIAMI            71  55  75  52 /   0   0  20  10
NAPLES           66  58  71  52 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 250812
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
312 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
A COOL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RUN 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE PENINSULA
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH A MORNING CHILL
(SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE) WITH WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S OR THE 70 DEGREE MARK. TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY, A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS BUT HAVE BECOME RATHER BULLISH IN
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NAM
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY HINTING AT NUMEROUS SHOWERSALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS JUST DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE FOR A
COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL, THIS IS A QUITE COMMON PATTERN
DURING THE WINTER SEASON TO HAVE A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT. DURING THESE PHASES, THE FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE TO WELL ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST MAKING IT
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. AND SECOND OF ALL, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM ARE SHOWING AN EXTREMELY
BRIEF INCREASE OF PWAT AT JUST OVER AN INCH. SO FOR THESE REASONS,
I CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE POP GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THIS MORNING WITH
EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT THE LOWER AND MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION CONTINUING THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WITH THE
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO MOVING LITTLE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ONCE AGAIN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO 70 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS COMING IN
OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE 10 FOOT WAVES IN THE
GULF WATERS AND 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  53  73  49 /   0   0  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  55  74  51 /   0   0  20  10
MIAMI            71  55  75  52 /   0   0  20  10
NAPLES           66  58  71  52 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 250812
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
312 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
A COOL PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD AS A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY WILL RUN 5-10
DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JANUARY. A COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY HAS MOVED EAST OF THE PENINSULA
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH A MORNING CHILL
(SOUTH FLORIDA STYLE) WITH WIND CHILL READINGS RANGING FROM
AROUND 40 WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE 40S ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF SOUTH FLORIDA EXCEPT LOWER TO MID 50S ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.
TODAY WILL BE SUNNY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S OR THE 70 DEGREE MARK. TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY, A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA DURING
THE DAY. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN SHOWING THIS
FEATURE THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS BUT HAVE BECOME RATHER BULLISH IN
SHOWING SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH THE NAM
BEING THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AND ACTUALLY HINTING AT NUMEROUS SHOWERSALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS JUST DOES NOT MAKE ANY SENSE FOR A
COUPLE OF REASONS. FIRST OF ALL, THIS IS A QUITE COMMON PATTERN
DURING THE WINTER SEASON TO HAVE A REINFORCING PUSH OF COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE ORIGINAL COLD FRONT. DURING THESE PHASES, THE FLOW FROM
THE SURFACE TO WELL ALOFT REMAINS WEST TO NORTHWEST MAKING IT
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO GET A RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE DEEP ENOUGH TO
ALLOW SHOWER ACTIVITY. AND SECOND OF ALL, MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
FROM ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE NAM ARE SHOWING AN EXTREMELY
BRIEF INCREASE OF PWAT AT JUST OVER AN INCH. SO FOR THESE REASONS,
I CUT BACK SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE POP GUIDANCE FOR MONDAY.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL HAVE A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF THIS MORNING WITH
EARLY MORNING WIND CHILL READINGS IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA EXCEPT THE LOWER AND MID 50S ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE
REGION CONTINUING THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE WITH THE
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO MOVING LITTLE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN ONCE AGAIN AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY STRUGGLING TO
REACH THE UPPER 60S TO 70 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND AS THE LARGE
SCALE TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ALSO SHIFTS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO
MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS COMING IN
OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL BE DIMINISHING TODAY AND TONIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND AND SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN
BUILD MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLE 10 FOOT WAVES IN THE
GULF WATERS AND 6-8 FEET OVER THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  53  73  49 /   0   0  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  55  74  51 /   0   0  20  10
MIAMI            71  55  75  52 /   0   0  20  10
NAPLES           66  58  71  52 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 250540
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1240 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR REIGNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. NW WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W TOMORROW, THEN SW LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOVED SOUTH BY A NORTH
FLORIDA COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...

IN GENERAL WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE...BUT REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING TO 100 AM EST SUNDAY.
WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING.

THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE GULF COAST BEACHES WAS
EXTENDED TO 100 AM EST SUNDAY.

WIND CHILLS AROUND 40 TO UPPER THIRTIES MAY BE POSSIBLE TO THE
WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHERN INTERIOR HENDRY COUNTY
TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS, ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND COLLIER COUNTY
COASTAL ZONES, IN THE LOWER 50S, MAY BE POSSIBLE. NEAR THE MID
40S FOR INTERIOR METRO AREAS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL CIGS SHOULD
CLEAR OVER THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING THEN TURN MORE
WESTERLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...

WHILE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS...THERE WAS A CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE
LATEST REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY...LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS. FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO
NEAR 7 FEET MAINLY IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TO THE EAST OF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 7OO PM THIS EVENING. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 100 AM
SUNDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL EXPIRE AT 100 AM AND FOR THE OFF SHORE
WATERS AT 400 AM.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA VERY SHORTLY. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 70S CONFINED
ONLY TO BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN...AND LIKELY THE ONLY CHANCE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK...WILL BE ON MONDAY. MODELS DEPICT AN H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AROUND MIDDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WHAT SHOWERS DO DEVELOP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER LOBE OF UPPER ENERGY IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PREVIOUS UPPER LOW BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS. THESE READINGS WILL BE A GOOD
6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BRINGING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW BACK TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
EDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES
SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DYNAMIC PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE.

MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  53  73  49 /   0  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  55  74  51 /   0  10  20  10
MIAMI            71  55  75  52 /   0  10  20  10
NAPLES           66  58  71  52 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ656-657.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 250540
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1240 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR REIGNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE. NW WINDS WILL BACK TO THE W TOMORROW, THEN SW LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD, AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SHOVED SOUTH BY A NORTH
FLORIDA COLD FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...

IN GENERAL WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE...BUT REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING TO 100 AM EST SUNDAY.
WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING.

THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE GULF COAST BEACHES WAS
EXTENDED TO 100 AM EST SUNDAY.

WIND CHILLS AROUND 40 TO UPPER THIRTIES MAY BE POSSIBLE TO THE
WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NORTHERN INTERIOR HENDRY COUNTY
TONIGHT. WIND CHILLS, ALONG THE ATLANTIC AND COLLIER COUNTY
COASTAL ZONES, IN THE LOWER 50S, MAY BE POSSIBLE. NEAR THE MID
40S FOR INTERIOR METRO AREAS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL CIGS SHOULD
CLEAR OVER THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING THEN TURN MORE
WESTERLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...

WHILE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS...THERE WAS A CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE
LATEST REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY...LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS. FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO
NEAR 7 FEET MAINLY IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TO THE EAST OF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 7OO PM THIS EVENING. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 100 AM
SUNDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL EXPIRE AT 100 AM AND FOR THE OFF SHORE
WATERS AT 400 AM.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA VERY SHORTLY. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 70S CONFINED
ONLY TO BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN...AND LIKELY THE ONLY CHANCE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK...WILL BE ON MONDAY. MODELS DEPICT AN H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AROUND MIDDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WHAT SHOWERS DO DEVELOP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER LOBE OF UPPER ENERGY IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PREVIOUS UPPER LOW BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS. THESE READINGS WILL BE A GOOD
6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BRINGING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW BACK TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
EDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES
SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DYNAMIC PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE.

MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  53  73  49 /   0  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  55  74  51 /   0  10  20  10
MIAMI            71  55  75  52 /   0  10  20  10
NAPLES           66  58  71  52 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ656-657.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 250102
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
802 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...

IN GENERAL WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE...BUT REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING TO 100 AM EST SUNDAY.
WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE GULF COAST BEACHES
AND WAS EXTENDED TO 100 AM EST SUNDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO THE CURRENT WIND FORECAST VERIFYING DURING
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WIND CHILLS AROUND 40 TO UPPER
THIRTIES MAY BE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
NORTHERN INTERIOR HENDRY COUNTY. IN GENERAL WIND CHILLS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL ZONES IN THE LOWER 50S MAY BE
POSSIBLE AND IN THE INTERIOR METRO AREAS TO NEAR THE MID 40S.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL CIGS SHOULD
CLEAR OVER THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING THEN TURN MORE
WESTERLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...

WHILE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS...THERE WAS A CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE
LATEST REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY...LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS. FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO
NEAR 7 FEET MAINLY IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

GIVEN THE CHANGE IN MARINE GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY DECREASING...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF BROWARD AND
MIAMI DADE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 7OO PM THIS EVENING. FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 100 AM SUNDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL EXPIRE AT 100 AM AND
FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS AT 400 AM.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA VERY SHORTLY. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 70S CONFINED
ONLY TO BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN...AND LIKELY THE ONLY CHANCE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK...WILL BE ON MONDAY. MODELS DEPICT AN H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AROUND MIDDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WHAT SHOWERS DO DEVELOP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER LOBE OF UPPER ENERGY IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PREVIOUS UPPER LOW BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS. THESE READINGS WILL BE A GOOD
6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BRINGING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW BACK TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
EDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES
SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DYNAMIC PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE.

MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  50  69  53  73 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  70  55  74 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            53  71  55  75 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           51  66  58  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-657.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 250102
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
802 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...

IN GENERAL WINDS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE...BUT REGIONAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING TO 100 AM EST SUNDAY.
WINDS ABOVE 20 KNOTS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUING.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE GULF COAST BEACHES
AND WAS EXTENDED TO 100 AM EST SUNDAY.

IT WILL BE VERY SENSITIVE TO THE CURRENT WIND FORECAST VERIFYING DURING
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT WIND CHILLS AROUND 40 TO UPPER
THIRTIES MAY BE POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND
NORTHERN INTERIOR HENDRY COUNTY. IN GENERAL WIND CHILLS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC AND COLLIER COUNTY COASTAL ZONES IN THE LOWER 50S MAY BE
POSSIBLE AND IN THE INTERIOR METRO AREAS TO NEAR THE MID 40S.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 642 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL CIGS SHOULD
CLEAR OVER THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING THEN TURN MORE
WESTERLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...

WHILE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS...THERE WAS A CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE
LATEST REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY...LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS. FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO
NEAR 7 FEET MAINLY IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

GIVEN THE CHANGE IN MARINE GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY DECREASING...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF BROWARD AND
MIAMI DADE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 7OO PM THIS EVENING. FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 100 AM SUNDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL EXPIRE AT 100 AM AND
FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS AT 400 AM.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA VERY SHORTLY. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 70S CONFINED
ONLY TO BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN...AND LIKELY THE ONLY CHANCE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK...WILL BE ON MONDAY. MODELS DEPICT AN H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AROUND MIDDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WHAT SHOWERS DO DEVELOP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER LOBE OF UPPER ENERGY IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PREVIOUS UPPER LOW BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS. THESE READINGS WILL BE A GOOD
6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BRINGING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW BACK TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
EDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES
SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DYNAMIC PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE.

MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  50  69  53  73 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  70  55  74 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            53  71  55  75 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           51  66  58  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-657.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 242342
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
642 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL CIGS SHOULD
CLEAR OVER THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING THEN TURN MORE
WESTERLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...

WHILE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS...THERE WAS A CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE
LATEST REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY...LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS. FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO
NEAR 7 FEET MAINLY IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

GIVEN THE CHANGE IN MARINE GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY DECREASING...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF BROWARD AND
MIAMI DADE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 7OO PM THIS EVENING. FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 100 AM SUNDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL EXPIRE AT 100 AM AND
FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS AT 400 AM.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA VERY SHORTLY. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 70S CONFINED
ONLY TO BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN...AND LIKELY THE ONLY CHANCE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK...WILL BE ON MONDAY. MODELS DEPICT AN H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AROUND MIDDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WHAT SHOWERS DO DEVELOP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER LOBE OF UPPER ENERGY IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PREVIOUS UPPER LOW BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS. THESE READINGS WILL BE A GOOD
6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BRINGING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW BACK TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
EDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES
SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DYNAMIC PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE.

MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  50  69  53  73 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  70  55  74 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            53  71  55  75 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           51  66  58  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ610-651-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-657.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 242342
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
642 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SOME MID LEVEL CIGS SHOULD
CLEAR OVER THE GULF COAST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING THEN TURN MORE
WESTERLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 548 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...

WHILE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS...THERE WAS A CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE
LATEST REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY...LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS. FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO
NEAR 7 FEET MAINLY IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

GIVEN THE CHANGE IN MARINE GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY DECREASING...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF BROWARD AND
MIAMI DADE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 7OO PM THIS EVENING. FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 100 AM SUNDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL EXPIRE AT 100 AM AND
FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS AT 400 AM.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA VERY SHORTLY. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 70S CONFINED
ONLY TO BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN...AND LIKELY THE ONLY CHANCE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK...WILL BE ON MONDAY. MODELS DEPICT AN H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AROUND MIDDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WHAT SHOWERS DO DEVELOP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER LOBE OF UPPER ENERGY IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PREVIOUS UPPER LOW BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS. THESE READINGS WILL BE A GOOD
6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BRINGING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW BACK TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
EDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES
SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DYNAMIC PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE.

MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  50  69  53  73 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  70  55  74 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            53  71  55  75 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           51  66  58  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ610-651-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-657.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 242248
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
548 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...

WHILE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS...THERE WAS A CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE
LATEST REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY...LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS. FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO
NEAR 7 FEET MAINLY IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

GIVEN THE CHANGE IN MARINE GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY DECREASING...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF BROWARD AND
MIAMI DADE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 7OO PM THIS EVENING. FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 100 AM SUNDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL EXPIRE AT 100 AM AND
FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS AT 400 AM.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA VERY SHORTLY. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 70S CONFINED
ONLY TO BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN...AND LIKELY THE ONLY CHANCE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK...WILL BE ON MONDAY. MODELS DEPICT AN H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AROUND MIDDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WHAT SHOWERS DO DEVELOP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER LOBE OF UPPER ENERGY IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PREVIOUS UPPER LOW BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS. THESE READINGS WILL BE A GOOD
6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BRINGING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW BACK TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
EDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES
SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DYNAMIC PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE.

AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTH FL
TERMINALS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
DRY AIR USHERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ON A FADING NW WIND
FLOW. GUSTY WINDS 20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  50  69  53  73 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  70  55  74 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            53  71  55  75 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           51  66  58  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ610-651-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-657.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 242248
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
548 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...

WHILE HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS...THERE WAS A CHANGE TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. THE
LATEST REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE MOSTLY LIKELY
CONFINED TO THE OFF SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY...LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS. FOR
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO
NEAR 7 FEET MAINLY IN THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET.

GIVEN THE CHANGE IN MARINE GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SLOWLY DECREASING...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF BROWARD AND
MIAMI DADE COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 7OO PM THIS EVENING. FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO THE EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EXPIRES AT 100 AM SUNDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE NEAR SHORE WATERS WILL EXPIRE AT 100 AM AND
FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS AT 400 AM.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA VERY SHORTLY. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 70S CONFINED
ONLY TO BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN...AND LIKELY THE ONLY CHANCE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK...WILL BE ON MONDAY. MODELS DEPICT AN H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AROUND MIDDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WHAT SHOWERS DO DEVELOP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER LOBE OF UPPER ENERGY IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PREVIOUS UPPER LOW BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS. THESE READINGS WILL BE A GOOD
6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BRINGING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW BACK TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
EDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES
SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DYNAMIC PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE.

AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTH FL
TERMINALS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
DRY AIR USHERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ON A FADING NW WIND
FLOW. GUSTY WINDS 20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  50  69  53  73 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  70  55  74 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            53  71  55  75 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           51  66  58  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ610-651-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-657.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 241949
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
249 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT HAS NEARLY CLEARED THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA VERY SHORTLY. A
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS WILL THEN DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
GULF OF MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH LOW 70S CONFINED
ONLY TO BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN...AND LIKELY THE ONLY CHANCE THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK...WILL BE ON MONDAY. MODELS DEPICT AN H5 SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL DRAG AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
AROUND MIDDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE. WHAT SHOWERS DO DEVELOP
SHOULD CLEAR THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER LOBE OF UPPER ENERGY IS THEN EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE
PREVIOUS UPPER LOW BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL DRY AIR
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS. THESE READINGS WILL BE A GOOD
6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
QUICKLY PUSH TO THE EAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BRINGING
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW BACK TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
EDGE TEMPERATURES UP A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL FRONTAL PASSAGES
SATURDAY AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A DYNAMIC PATTERN LOOKS TO
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTH FL
TERMINALS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
DRY AIR USHERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ON A FADING NW WIND
FLOW. GUSTY WINDS 20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DECREASE ACROSS THE AREA WATERS
TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO
ADVISORY LEVELS MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT MODERATE TO FRESH LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY AND DECREASING SLIGHTLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  50  69  53  73 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  70  55  74 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            53  71  55  75 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           51  66  58  71 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241728
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1228 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTH FL
TERMINALS, BUT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
DRY AIR USHERS INTO THE AREA BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL
CLEAR BY EARLY THIS EVENING WITH ONLY FEW-SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD OVERNIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY ON A FADING NW WIND
FLOW. GUSTY WINDS 20-30 KT WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS ALSO
GREATLY DIMINISHED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND REMOVED
ALL MENTIONS OF THUNDER. DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN
FILTER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING TO THE EAST
COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND EXITING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS BAND HAS BEEN WEAKENING, WITH THE TSTORM THREAT LESSENING. SO
MAINTAINED ONLY VCSH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SW WINDS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING SOUTH FLORIDA
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE RAPIDLY CHANGING THIS MORNING AS A
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTH
FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL BE APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY 12Z AND RAPIDLY PUSH ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. A NEAR
SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ALONG THE FRONT AND
THIS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING GIVING
MOST LOCATIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA A BRIEF SHOT OF RAINFALL. THE
CONVECTIVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF AND THIS
HAS FIRED OFF QUITE OF BIT OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AS THE LINE
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST. DECENT AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR
EXISTS TO KEEP THIS LINE ACTIVE AND AS IT ENTERS THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO WATERSPOUTS OCCUR. THE LINE
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MAINLAND DUE TO THE
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SO THE STRONGER THREAT OF STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIMITED TO LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH DUE TO THE NARROW OPPORTUNITY
OF A CONVECTIVE BAND AND ITS BRIEF NATURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT AS
THE FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AND RETURN MOISTURE WILL THEREFORE
BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A NORTH SURFACE FLOW SO COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DOMINATE SOUTH
FLORIDA THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A RETURN TO A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL RESUME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH A RETURN FLOW OUT
OF THE EAST.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS A SOUTHWEST
WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASES TO 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 6-8 FEET OVER BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. A
SCEC STATEMENT WILL EXIST FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY.
WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS, HOWEVER THE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  50  68  52 /  30   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  52  69  54 /  30  10   0  10
MIAMI            78  53  70  54 /  30   0   0  10
NAPLES           73  51  66  57 /  60   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241522
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1022 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS ALSO
GREATLY DIMINISHED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND REMOVED
ALL MENTIONS OF THUNDER. DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN
FILTER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING TO THE EAST
COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND EXITING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS BAND HAS BEEN WEAKENING, WITH THE TSTORM THREAT LESSENING. SO
MAINTAINED ONLY VCSH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SW WINDS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING SOUTH FLORIDA
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE RAPIDLY CHANGING THIS MORNING AS A
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTH
FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL BE APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY 12Z AND RAPIDLY PUSH ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. A NEAR
SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ALONG THE FRONT AND
THIS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING GIVING
MOST LOCATIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA A BRIEF SHOT OF RAINFALL. THE
CONVECTIVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF AND THIS
HAS FIRED OFF QUITE OF BIT OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AS THE LINE
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST. DECENT AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR
EXISTS TO KEEP THIS LINE ACTIVE AND AS IT ENTERS THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO WATERSPOUTS OCCUR. THE LINE
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MAINLAND DUE TO THE
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SO THE STRONGER THREAT OF STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIMITED TO LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH DUE TO THE NARROW OPPORTUNITY
OF A CONVECTIVE BAND AND ITS BRIEF NATURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT AS
THE FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AND RETURN MOISTURE WILL THEREFORE
BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A NORTH SURFACE FLOW SO COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DOMINATE SOUTH
FLORIDA THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A RETURN TO A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL RESUME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH A RETURN FLOW OUT
OF THE EAST.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS A SOUTHWEST
WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASES TO 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 6-8 FEET OVER BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. A
SCEC STATEMENT WILL EXIST FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY.
WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS, HOWEVER THE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  50  68  52 /  30   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  52  69  54 /  30  10   0  10
MIAMI            78  53  70  54 /  30   0   0  10
NAPLES           73  51  66  57 /  60   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241522
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1022 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT HAS ALSO
GREATLY DIMINISHED AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THEREFORE DECREASED POPS ACROSS THE AREA AND REMOVED
ALL MENTIONS OF THUNDER. DRY AND MUCH COOLER AIR MASS SHOULD THEN
FILTER ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 628 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS ALONG A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM THE GULF COAST THIS MORNING TO THE EAST
COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND EXITING THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS BAND HAS BEEN WEAKENING, WITH THE TSTORM THREAT LESSENING. SO
MAINTAINED ONLY VCSH WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SW WINDS WILL
BECOME NW AND GUSTY. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING SOUTH FLORIDA
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WILL BE RAPIDLY CHANGING THIS MORNING AS A
LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DEVELOPS OVER NORTH AMERICA. THE
FIRST IN A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS IS CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NORTH
FLORIDA INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND WILL BE APPROACHING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE SOUTHWEST COAST BY 12Z AND RAPIDLY PUSH ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SHORTLY AFTER 18Z. A NEAR
SOLID BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS ALONG THE FRONT AND
THIS WILL SHIFT EAST WITH THE FRONT DURING THE EARLY MORNING GIVING
MOST LOCATIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA A BRIEF SHOT OF RAINFALL. THE
CONVECTIVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF AND THIS
HAS FIRED OFF QUITE OF BIT OF LIGHTNING ACTIVITY AS THE LINE
APPROACHES THE SOUTHWEST COAST. DECENT AMOUNT OF VERTICAL SHEAR
EXISTS TO KEEP THIS LINE ACTIVE AND AS IT ENTERS THE GULF COASTAL
WATERS THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO WATERSPOUTS OCCUR. THE LINE
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE MAINLAND DUE TO THE
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SO THE STRONGER THREAT OF STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIMITED TO LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH DUE TO THE NARROW OPPORTUNITY
OF A CONVECTIVE BAND AND ITS BRIEF NATURE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY MONDAY. THIS WILL BE A DRY FRONT AS
THE FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AND RETURN MOISTURE WILL THEREFORE
BE LIMITED.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
UPPER FLOW WILL CONTINUE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
A NORTH SURFACE FLOW SO COOL TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DOMINATE SOUTH
FLORIDA THE FIRST PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A RETURN TO A
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL RESUME TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A SLOW MODIFICATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH A RETURN FLOW OUT
OF THE EAST.

MARINE...
WIND AND SEAS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS MORNING AS A SOUTHWEST
WIND AHEAD OF THE FRONT INCREASES TO 20-25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. SEAS WILL BUILD
TO 6-8 FEET OVER BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY TONIGHT SO A SCA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS. A
SCEC STATEMENT WILL EXIST FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND BISCAYNE BAY.
WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT SLACKENS, HOWEVER THE FLOW WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES BEFORE THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST
ON WEDNESDAY INTO THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  50  68  52 /  30   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  52  69  54 /  30  10   0  10
MIAMI            78  53  70  54 /  30   0   0  10
NAPLES           73  51  66  57 /  60   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SUNDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...57/DG





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