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000
FXUS62 KMFL 301730
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT MOST EXPECTED FOR MIAMI-DADE AND COLLIER
TERMINALS...THUS ONLY VCSH INCLUDED. ELSEWHERE...VCTS THROUGH 0Z.
SW WIND 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN CALM AFTER SUNSET...THEN
INCREASE TO 10 KTS OR SO FRIDAY MORNING. POPS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO DIDN`T INCLUDE IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...
12Z RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALED FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION. TWO FACTORS GOING AGAINST THIS ARE H5 INVERSION AND
ONLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. FEEL COVERAGE MAY NOT BE
WIDESPREAD...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS A REASONABLE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH HAS INDUCED A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CUT OFF FROM THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT WHICH
RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND TO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY
LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA IN A COL REGION OR A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE WILL BE CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY. THESE
SUBTLE CHANGES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS SO MAINLY NORTH OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AT 6C/KM OR LESS AND THE 500MB TEMPERATURE OF AROUND
-7C TO -8C WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA VARIETY WITH
POSSIBLE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, NOT MUCH CHANGES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING OVER
THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL TRY AND BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY YIELD A
MORE DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SO FOR NOW, WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  90  76  89 /  30  60  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  78  89 /  20  50  40  50
MIAMI            78  91  77  88 /  10  50  40  50
NAPLES           78  90  76  87 /  40  40  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301730
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT MOST EXPECTED FOR MIAMI-DADE AND COLLIER
TERMINALS...THUS ONLY VCSH INCLUDED. ELSEWHERE...VCTS THROUGH 0Z.
SW WIND 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL TURN CALM AFTER SUNSET...THEN
INCREASE TO 10 KTS OR SO FRIDAY MORNING. POPS AFTER 12Z FRIDAY
ONLY 20-30 PERCENT SO DIDN`T INCLUDE IN THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

UPDATE...
12Z RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALED FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION. TWO FACTORS GOING AGAINST THIS ARE H5 INVERSION AND
ONLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. FEEL COVERAGE MAY NOT BE
WIDESPREAD...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS A REASONABLE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH HAS INDUCED A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CUT OFF FROM THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT WHICH
RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND TO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY
LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA IN A COL REGION OR A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE WILL BE CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY. THESE
SUBTLE CHANGES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS SO MAINLY NORTH OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AT 6C/KM OR LESS AND THE 500MB TEMPERATURE OF AROUND
-7C TO -8C WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA VARIETY WITH
POSSIBLE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, NOT MUCH CHANGES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING OVER
THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL TRY AND BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY YIELD A
MORE DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SO FOR NOW, WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  90  76  89 /  30  60  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  78  89 /  20  50  40  50
MIAMI            78  91  77  88 /  10  50  40  50
NAPLES           78  90  76  87 /  40  40  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301336
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
936 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
12Z RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALED FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION. TWO FACTORS GOING AGAINST THIS ARE H5 INVERSION AND
ONLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. FEEL COVERAGE MAY NOT BE
WIDESPREAD...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS A REASONABLE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING NAPLES THIS MORNING...WITH REMAINING
TERMINALS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY UNTIL AFTERNOON. VCTS AT ALL
TERMINALS 18Z-0Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW FOR MIAMI-DADE
AND FUTURE UPDATES MAY BE REDUCED TO VCSH. ALTERNATIVELY...KPBI
COULD HAVE TEMPO GROUP ADDED IF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PROJECT NUMEROUS COVERAGE. SW WIND 10-15 THIS AFTERNOON...5 KT OR
LESS TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR ATLANTIC BREEZE...WHICH COULD
IMPACTING KPBI BY MID-AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH HAS INDUCED A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CUT OFF FROM THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT WHICH
RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND TO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY
LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA IN A COL REGION OR A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE WILL BE CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY. THESE
SUBTLE CHANGES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS SO MAINLY NORTH OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AT 6C/KM OR LESS AND THE 500MB TEMPERATURE OF AROUND
-7C TO -8C WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA VARIETY WITH
POSSIBLE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, NOT MUCH CHANGES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING OVER
THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL TRY AND BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY YIELD A
MORE DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SO FOR NOW, WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  76  90  76 /  60  30  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  78  90  78 /  40  20  50  40
MIAMI            92  78  91  77 /  30  10  50  40
NAPLES           89  78  90  76 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301336
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
936 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
12Z RAOB ANALYSIS REVEALED FAIRLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROBUST
CONVECTION. TWO FACTORS GOING AGAINST THIS ARE H5 INVERSION AND
ONLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE. FEEL COVERAGE MAY NOT BE
WIDESPREAD...BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS A REASONABLE THREAT THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NORTHERN ZONES. POPS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

AVIATION...
FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING NAPLES THIS MORNING...WITH REMAINING
TERMINALS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY UNTIL AFTERNOON. VCTS AT ALL
TERMINALS 18Z-0Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW FOR MIAMI-DADE
AND FUTURE UPDATES MAY BE REDUCED TO VCSH. ALTERNATIVELY...KPBI
COULD HAVE TEMPO GROUP ADDED IF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PROJECT NUMEROUS COVERAGE. SW WIND 10-15 THIS AFTERNOON...5 KT OR
LESS TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR ATLANTIC BREEZE...WHICH COULD
IMPACTING KPBI BY MID-AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH HAS INDUCED A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CUT OFF FROM THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT WHICH
RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND TO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY
LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA IN A COL REGION OR A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE WILL BE CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY. THESE
SUBTLE CHANGES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS SO MAINLY NORTH OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AT 6C/KM OR LESS AND THE 500MB TEMPERATURE OF AROUND
-7C TO -8C WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA VARIETY WITH
POSSIBLE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, NOT MUCH CHANGES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING OVER
THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL TRY AND BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY YIELD A
MORE DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SO FOR NOW, WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  76  90  76 /  60  30  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  78  90  78 /  40  20  50  40
MIAMI            92  78  91  77 /  30  10  50  40
NAPLES           89  78  90  76 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301156
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
756 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING NAPLES THIS MORNING...WITH REMAINING
TERMINALS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY UNTIL AFTERNOON. VCTS AT ALL
TERMINALS 18Z-0Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW FOR MIAMI-DADE
AND FUTURE UPDATES MAY BE REDUCED TO VCSH. ALTERNATIVELY...KPBI
COULD HAVE TEMPO GROUP ADDED IF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PROJECT NUMEROUS COVERAGE. SW WIND 10-15 THIS AFTERNOON...5 KT OR
LESS TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR ATLANTIC BREEZE...WHICH COULD
IMPACTING KPBI BY MID-AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH HAS INDUCED A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CUT OFF FROM THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT WHICH
RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND TO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY
LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA IN A COL REGION OR A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE WILL BE CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY. THESE
SUBTLE CHANGES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS SO MAINLY NORTH OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AT 6C/KM OR LESS AND THE 500MB TEMPERATURE OF AROUND
-7C TO -8C WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA VARIETY WITH
POSSIBLE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, NOT MUCH CHANGES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING OVER
THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL TRY AND BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY YIELD A
MORE DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SO FOR NOW, WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  76  90  76 /  60  30  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  78  90  78 /  40  20  50  40
MIAMI            92  78  91  77 /  30  10  50  40
NAPLES           89  78  90  76 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301156
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
756 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING NAPLES THIS MORNING...WITH REMAINING
TERMINALS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY UNTIL AFTERNOON. VCTS AT ALL
TERMINALS 18Z-0Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW FOR MIAMI-DADE
AND FUTURE UPDATES MAY BE REDUCED TO VCSH. ALTERNATIVELY...KPBI
COULD HAVE TEMPO GROUP ADDED IF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PROJECT NUMEROUS COVERAGE. SW WIND 10-15 THIS AFTERNOON...5 KT OR
LESS TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR ATLANTIC BREEZE...WHICH COULD
IMPACTING KPBI BY MID-AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH HAS INDUCED A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CUT OFF FROM THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT WHICH
RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND TO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY
LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA IN A COL REGION OR A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE WILL BE CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY. THESE
SUBTLE CHANGES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS SO MAINLY NORTH OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AT 6C/KM OR LESS AND THE 500MB TEMPERATURE OF AROUND
-7C TO -8C WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA VARIETY WITH
POSSIBLE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, NOT MUCH CHANGES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING OVER
THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL TRY AND BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY YIELD A
MORE DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SO FOR NOW, WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  76  90  76 /  60  30  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  78  90  78 /  40  20  50  40
MIAMI            92  78  91  77 /  30  10  50  40
NAPLES           89  78  90  76 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301156
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
756 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
FEW SHOWERS IMPACTING NAPLES THIS MORNING...WITH REMAINING
TERMINALS EXPECTED TO STAY DRY UNTIL AFTERNOON. VCTS AT ALL
TERMINALS 18Z-0Z...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW FOR MIAMI-DADE
AND FUTURE UPDATES MAY BE REDUCED TO VCSH. ALTERNATIVELY...KPBI
COULD HAVE TEMPO GROUP ADDED IF MESOSCALE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
PROJECT NUMEROUS COVERAGE. SW WIND 10-15 THIS AFTERNOON...5 KT OR
LESS TONIGHT. WILL MONITOR FOR ATLANTIC BREEZE...WHICH COULD
IMPACTING KPBI BY MID-AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THIS TROUGH HAS INDUCED A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST
OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST
MERGING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CUT OFF FROM THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT WHICH
RUNS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND TO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY
LEAVING SOUTH FLORIDA IN A COL REGION OR A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE WILL BE CONTINUE TO
BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE
NORTHEAST THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY. THESE
SUBTLE CHANGES WILL NOT HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER
WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS SO MAINLY NORTH OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AT 6C/KM OR LESS AND THE 500MB TEMPERATURE OF AROUND
-7C TO -8C WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THUS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA VARIETY WITH
POSSIBLE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, NOT MUCH CHANGES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING OVER
THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL TRY AND BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY YIELD A
MORE DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SO FOR NOW, WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  76  90  76 /  60  30  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  78  90  78 /  40  20  50  40
MIAMI            92  78  91  77 /  30  10  50  40
NAPLES           89  78  90  76 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300802
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
TROUGH HAS INDUCED A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST MERGING
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST. THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS CUT OFF FROM THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES SANDWICHED
IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT WHICH RUNS FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY LEAVING SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A COL REGION OR A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT
THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR
SOUTH BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY. THESE SUBTLE CHANGES WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN
AREAS SO MAINLY NORTH OF THE I75 CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 6C/KM OR LESS AND
THE 500MB TEMPERATURE OF AROUND -7C TO -8C WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA VARIETY WITH POSSIBLE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, NOT MUCH CHANGES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING OVER
THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL TRY AND BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY YIELD A
MORE DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SO FOR NOW, WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  76  90  76 /  60  30  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  78  90  78 /  40  20  50  40
MIAMI            92  78  91  77 /  30  10  50  40
NAPLES           89  78  90  76 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300802
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS
TROUGH HAS INDUCED A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST MERGING
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON FRIDAY OFF THE CAROLINAS COAST. THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS CUT OFF FROM THE MID LATITUDE WESTERLIES SANDWICHED
IN BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE BELT WHICH RUNS FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN FURTHER ON SATURDAY LEAVING SOUTH
FLORIDA IN A COL REGION OR A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AT
THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE WILL BE CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED TO OUR
SOUTH BUT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST THE RIDGE WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTH ON SATURDAY. THESE SUBTLE CHANGES WILL NOT HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL CYCLE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN
AREAS SO MAINLY NORTH OF THE I75 CORRIDOR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
NOT SHOWING IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AT 6C/KM OR LESS AND
THE 500MB TEMPERATURE OF AROUND -7C TO -8C WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS, THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE
TYPICAL SOUTH FLORIDA VARIETY WITH POSSIBLE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD, NOT MUCH CHANGES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
MODELS SHOWING THE WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING OVER
THE AREA. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SUGGESTING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WILL TRY AND BUILD SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND THIS MAY YIELD A
MORE DEEP SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. SO FOR NOW, WILL SHOW THE HIGHEST
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND OF LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  76  90  76 /  60  30  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  78  90  78 /  40  20  50  40
MIAMI            92  78  91  77 /  30  10  50  40
NAPLES           89  78  90  76 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300602
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME INSTABILITY BACK TO
SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINLY IN THE LAKE REGION, AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST, UNDER GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER KPBI. THE CONVECTION IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS, WITH
EITHER PROB30, VCTS, OR VCSH. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
IFR POSSIBLE UNDER AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE OVER
NIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MESO-SCALE MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NAPLES METRO AREA AND GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF DEEPENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AND
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF JUST WEST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COAST WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE MAINTAINING
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE THE LAKE REGION
AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADIENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND THE NAPLES METRO AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN
AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. ONCE AGAIN
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECAST IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND AND CENTRAL GULF AND WILL BE
REINFORCED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND COULD SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

MARINE...

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR JUST
UNDER ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  75  89  75 /  60  50  70  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  90  77 /  40  40  60  50
MIAMI            93  77  91  78 /  40  20  50  40
NAPLES           88  78  88  78 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300602
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME INSTABILITY BACK TO
SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINLY IN THE LAKE REGION, AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST, UNDER GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER KPBI. THE CONVECTION IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS, WITH
EITHER PROB30, VCTS, OR VCSH. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
IFR POSSIBLE UNDER AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE OVER
NIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MESO-SCALE MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NAPLES METRO AREA AND GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF DEEPENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AND
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF JUST WEST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COAST WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE MAINTAINING
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE THE LAKE REGION
AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADIENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND THE NAPLES METRO AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN
AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. ONCE AGAIN
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECAST IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND AND CENTRAL GULF AND WILL BE
REINFORCED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND COULD SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

MARINE...

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR JUST
UNDER ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  75  89  75 /  60  50  70  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  90  77 /  40  40  60  50
MIAMI            93  77  91  78 /  40  20  50  40
NAPLES           88  78  88  78 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300602
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME INSTABILITY BACK TO
SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINLY IN THE LAKE REGION, AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST, UNDER GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER KPBI. THE CONVECTION IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS, WITH
EITHER PROB30, VCTS, OR VCSH. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
IFR POSSIBLE UNDER AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE OVER
NIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MESO-SCALE MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NAPLES METRO AREA AND GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF DEEPENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AND
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF JUST WEST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COAST WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE MAINTAINING
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE THE LAKE REGION
AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADIENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND THE NAPLES METRO AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN
AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. ONCE AGAIN
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECAST IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND AND CENTRAL GULF AND WILL BE
REINFORCED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND COULD SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

MARINE...

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR JUST
UNDER ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  75  89  75 /  60  50  70  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  90  77 /  40  40  60  50
MIAMI            93  77  91  78 /  40  20  50  40
NAPLES           88  78  88  78 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300602
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SOME INSTABILITY BACK TO
SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINLY IN THE LAKE REGION, AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST, UNDER GENERALLY WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OVER KPBI. THE CONVECTION IS REFLECTED IN THE TAFS, WITH
EITHER PROB30, VCTS, OR VCSH. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF
IFR POSSIBLE UNDER AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE OVER
NIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MESO-SCALE MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NAPLES METRO AREA AND GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF DEEPENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AND
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF JUST WEST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COAST WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE MAINTAINING
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE THE LAKE REGION
AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADIENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND THE NAPLES METRO AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN
AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. ONCE AGAIN
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECAST IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND AND CENTRAL GULF AND WILL BE
REINFORCED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND COULD SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

MARINE...

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR JUST
UNDER ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  75  89  75 /  60  50  70  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  90  77 /  40  40  60  50
MIAMI            93  77  91  78 /  40  20  50  40
NAPLES           88  78  88  78 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 292353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE GULF COAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS TOMORROW AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH.
THEREFORE INTRODUCED VCSH MENTION FOR KAPF AFTER 13Z AND AFTER 15Z
ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES. OTHERWISE...SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
PREVAIL AT AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 657 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE OVER
NIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MESO-SCALE MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NAPLES METRO AREA AND GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF DEEPENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AND
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF JUST WEST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COAST WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE MAINTAINING
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE THE LAKE REGION
AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADIENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND THE NAPLES METRO AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN
AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. ONCE AGAIN
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECAST IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND AND CENTRAL GULF AND WILL BE
REINFORCED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND COULD SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

MARINE...

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR JUST
UNDER ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  75  89 /  20  60  50  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  77  90 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            77  93  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
NAPLES           78  88  78  88 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...10/CD
UPDATE....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 292257
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
657 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE OVER
NIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MESO-SCALE MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NAPLES METRO AREA AND GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF DEEPENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AND
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF JUST WEST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COAST WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE MAINTAINING
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE THE LAKE REGION
AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADIENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND THE NAPLES METRO AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN
AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. ONCE AGAIN
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECAST IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND AND CENTRAL GULF AND WILL BE
REINFORCED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND COULD SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

MARINE...

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR JUST
UNDER ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  75  89 /  20  60  50  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  77  90 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            77  93  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
NAPLES           78  88  78  88 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 292257
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
657 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE OVER
NIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MESO-SCALE MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NAPLES METRO AREA AND GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF DEEPENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AND
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF JUST WEST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COAST WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE MAINTAINING
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE THE LAKE REGION
AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADIENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND THE NAPLES METRO AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN
AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. ONCE AGAIN
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECAST IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND AND CENTRAL GULF AND WILL BE
REINFORCED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND COULD SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

MARINE...

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR JUST
UNDER ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  75  89 /  20  60  50  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  77  90 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            77  93  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
NAPLES           78  88  78  88 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 292257
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
657 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE OVER
NIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MESO-SCALE MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NAPLES METRO AREA AND GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF DEEPENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AND
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF JUST WEST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COAST WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE MAINTAINING
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE THE LAKE REGION
AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADIENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND THE NAPLES METRO AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN
AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. ONCE AGAIN
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECAST IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND AND CENTRAL GULF AND WILL BE
REINFORCED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND COULD SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

MARINE...

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR JUST
UNDER ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  75  89 /  20  60  50  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  77  90 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            77  93  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
NAPLES           78  88  78  88 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 292257
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
657 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...

SOME CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THE OVER
NIGHT PERIOD. THE LATEST MESO-SCALE MODEL RUNS INDICATED A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND
ACROSS THE NAPLES METRO AREA AND GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. THIS
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THE LOW LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF DEEPENING AND MOVING SOUTHWARD AND
BRINGING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE GULF JUST WEST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COAST WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE MAINTAINING
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE THE LAKE REGION
AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADIENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND THE NAPLES METRO AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN
AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. ONCE AGAIN
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECAST IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND AND CENTRAL GULF AND WILL BE
REINFORCED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND COULD SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

MARINE...

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR JUST
UNDER ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  75  89 /  20  60  50  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  77  90 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            77  93  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
NAPLES           78  88  78  88 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291952
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...


THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COAST WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE MAINTAINING
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE THE LAKE REGION
AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADIENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND THE NAPLES METRO AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN
AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. ONCE AGAIN
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECAST IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND AND CENTRAL GULF AND WILL BE
REINFORCED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND COULD SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR JUST
UNDER ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  75  89 /  20  60  50  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  77  90 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            77  93  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
NAPLES           78  88  78  88 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291952
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...


THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COAST WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE MAINTAINING
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE THE LAKE REGION
AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADIENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND THE NAPLES METRO AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN
AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. ONCE AGAIN
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECAST IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND AND CENTRAL GULF AND WILL BE
REINFORCED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND COULD SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR JUST
UNDER ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  75  89 /  20  60  50  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  77  90 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            77  93  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
NAPLES           78  88  78  88 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291952
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...


THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A BROAD AREA
OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES COAST WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF. THESE FEATURES ARE MAINTAINING
DEEP MOISTURE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE THE LAKE REGION
AND THE ADJACENT GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

FOR THURSDAY...TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY A BROAD SURFACE AND LOW
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND EXTEND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
GRADIENT OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC METRO AREAS AND THE NAPLES METRO AREA.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW AND LOW LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES WILL DEEPEN
AND EXTEND FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF. ONCE AGAIN
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND A MOISTURE GRADIENT
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SIMILAR TO THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
LATEST CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FORECAST IS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND SCATTERED ACTIVITY
ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND AND CENTRAL GULF AND WILL BE
REINFORCED AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN
INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND COULD SINK INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL MAINTAIN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND DEEPER
TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING WIDESPREAD
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA.

&&

.MARINE...

WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS OR JUST
UNDER ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THEN TRANSITIONING
TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
INCREASING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS ARE
FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  75  89 /  20  60  50  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  77  90 /  20  40  40  60
MIAMI            77  93  77  91 /  20  40  20  50
NAPLES           78  88  78  88 /  20  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291725
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS DURING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AT KAPF AND KPBI. WINDS WILL REMAIN
SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THEY WILL BE
NORTHWESTERLY AT KAPF. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE 12Z
KMFL SOUNDING SHOWED A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.60 THIS MORNING. THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY, HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE
REGION CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THESE STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING. MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW, HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER AS MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE LAKE AS WELL. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE MORNING. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS ENTERED A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW COMING AROUND TO AGREEING THIS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOT
PINCHED OFF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE BUT NONETHELESS IS CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH
HAS INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND THIS HAS
PLACED OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR DID WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND ABOUT A
30% CHANCE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE GOES SOUNDER REFLECTS
THIS IN SHOWING PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO NEAR 2" BY THE LAKE.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2" ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT AT ANY RATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE WIND WILL BE S-SW AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. DAY TO DAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  75  87 /  10  60  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  77  89 /  10  50  30  60
MIAMI            78  92  77  88 /  10  40  20  50
NAPLES           78  89  79  87 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...55/CWC





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291408
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1008 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE 12Z
KMFL SOUNDING SHOWED A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.60 THIS MORNING. THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY, HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE
REGION CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THESE STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING. MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW, HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER AS MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE LAKE AS WELL. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE MORNING. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS ENTERED A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW COMING AROUND TO AGREEING THIS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOT
PINCHED OFF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE BUT NONETHELESS IS CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH
HAS INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND THIS HAS
PLACED OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR DID WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND ABOUT A
30% CHANCE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE GOES SOUNDER REFLECTS
THIS IN SHOWING PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO NEAR 2" BY THE LAKE.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2" ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT AT ANY RATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE WIND WILL BE S-SW AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. DAY TO DAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  77  92  75 /  30  10  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  78  91  77 /  20  10  50  30
MIAMI            92  78  92  77 /  20  10  40  20
NAPLES           88  78  89  79 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291408
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1008 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE 12Z
KMFL SOUNDING SHOWED A GOOD AMOUNT OF DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE WITH
PWATS AROUND 1.60 THIS MORNING. THERE STILL WILL BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY, HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE LAKE
REGION CLOSER TO THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. THESE STORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
EVENING. MODELS ARE STILL SUGGESTING THAT THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TOMORROW, HOWEVER, CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGHER AS MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE
AGAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE LAKE AS WELL. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE MORNING. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS ENTERED A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW COMING AROUND TO AGREEING THIS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOT
PINCHED OFF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE BUT NONETHELESS IS CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH
HAS INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND THIS HAS
PLACED OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR DID WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND ABOUT A
30% CHANCE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE GOES SOUNDER REFLECTS
THIS IN SHOWING PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO NEAR 2" BY THE LAKE.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2" ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT AT ANY RATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE WIND WILL BE S-SW AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. DAY TO DAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  77  92  75 /  30  10  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  78  91  77 /  20  10  50  30
MIAMI            92  78  92  77 /  20  10  40  20
NAPLES           88  78  89  79 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291143
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
743 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE LAKE AS WELL. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE MORNING. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS ENTERED A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW COMING AROUND TO AGREEING THIS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOT
PINCHED OFF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE BUT NONETHELESS IS CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH
HAS INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND THIS HAS
PLACED OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR DID WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND ABOUT A
30% CHANCE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE GOES SOUNDER REFLECTS
THIS IN SHOWING PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO NEAR 2" BY THE LAKE.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2" ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT AT ANY RATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE WIND WILL BE S-SW AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. DAY TO DAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  77  92  75 /  30  10  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  78  91  77 /  20  10  50  30
MIAMI            92  78  92  77 /  20  10  40  20
NAPLES           88  78  89  79 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...55/CWC




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291143
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
743 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE LAKE AS WELL. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE MORNING. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS ENTERED A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW COMING AROUND TO AGREEING THIS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOT
PINCHED OFF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE BUT NONETHELESS IS CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH
HAS INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND THIS HAS
PLACED OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR DID WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND ABOUT A
30% CHANCE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE GOES SOUNDER REFLECTS
THIS IN SHOWING PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO NEAR 2" BY THE LAKE.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2" ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT AT ANY RATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE WIND WILL BE S-SW AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. DAY TO DAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  77  92  75 /  30  10  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  78  91  77 /  20  10  50  30
MIAMI            92  78  92  77 /  20  10  40  20
NAPLES           88  78  89  79 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...55/CWC





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291143
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
743 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE LAKE AS WELL. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE MORNING. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS ENTERED A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW COMING AROUND TO AGREEING THIS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOT
PINCHED OFF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE BUT NONETHELESS IS CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH
HAS INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND THIS HAS
PLACED OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR DID WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND ABOUT A
30% CHANCE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE GOES SOUNDER REFLECTS
THIS IN SHOWING PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO NEAR 2" BY THE LAKE.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2" ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT AT ANY RATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE WIND WILL BE S-SW AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. DAY TO DAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  77  92  75 /  30  10  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  78  91  77 /  20  10  50  30
MIAMI            92  78  92  77 /  20  10  40  20
NAPLES           88  78  89  79 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...55/CWC





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291143
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
743 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NORTH OF THE LAKE AS WELL. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE MORNING. AT KAPF, WINDS WILL SHIFT AND INCREASE TO NEAR 15
KNOTS BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS ENTERED A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW COMING AROUND TO AGREEING THIS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOT
PINCHED OFF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE BUT NONETHELESS IS CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH
HAS INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND THIS HAS
PLACED OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR DID WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND ABOUT A
30% CHANCE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE GOES SOUNDER REFLECTS
THIS IN SHOWING PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO NEAR 2" BY THE LAKE.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2" ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT AT ANY RATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE WIND WILL BE S-SW AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. DAY TO DAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  77  92  75 /  30  10  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  78  91  77 /  20  10  50  30
MIAMI            92  78  92  77 /  20  10  40  20
NAPLES           88  78  89  79 /  30  10  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...55/CWC




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290736
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
336 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS ENTERED A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW COMING AROUND TO AGREEING THIS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOT
PINCHED OFF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE BUT NONETHELESS IS CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH
HAS INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND THIS HAS
PLACED OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR DID WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND ABOUT A
30% CHANCE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE GOES SOUNDER REFLECTS
THIS IN SHOWING PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO NEAR 2" BY THE LAKE.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2" ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT AT ANY RATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE WIND WILL BE S-SW AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. DAY TO DAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  77  92  75 /  30  10  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  78  91  77 /  20  10  50  30
MIAMI            92  78  92  77 /  20  10  40  20
NAPLES           88  78  89  79 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290736
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
336 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS ENTERED A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW COMING AROUND TO AGREEING THIS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOT
PINCHED OFF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE BUT NONETHELESS IS CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH
HAS INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND THIS HAS
PLACED OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR DID WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND ABOUT A
30% CHANCE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE GOES SOUNDER REFLECTS
THIS IN SHOWING PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO NEAR 2" BY THE LAKE.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2" ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT AT ANY RATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE WIND WILL BE S-SW AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. DAY TO DAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  77  92  75 /  30  10  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  78  91  77 /  20  10  50  30
MIAMI            92  78  92  77 /  20  10  40  20
NAPLES           88  78  89  79 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 290736
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
336 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS ENTERED A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW COMING AROUND TO AGREEING THIS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOT
PINCHED OFF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE BUT NONETHELESS IS CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH
HAS INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND THIS HAS
PLACED OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR DID WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND ABOUT A
30% CHANCE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE GOES SOUNDER REFLECTS
THIS IN SHOWING PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO NEAR 2" BY THE LAKE.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2" ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT AT ANY RATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE WIND WILL BE S-SW AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. DAY TO DAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  77  92  75 /  30  10  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  78  91  77 /  20  10  50  30
MIAMI            92  78  92  77 /  20  10  40  20
NAPLES           88  78  89  79 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 290736
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
336 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SOUTH FLORIDA HAS ENTERED A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN WITH
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW COMING AROUND TO AGREEING THIS WILL
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT GOT
PINCHED OFF THE MID LATITUDE FLOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA HAS
WEAKENED FROM ITS EARLIER STATE BUT NONETHELESS IS CONTINUING TO
AFFECT THE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE TROUGH
HAS INDUCED LOWER PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AS WELL AND THIS HAS
PLACED OUR REGION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
FLOW. DRIER AIR DID WORK ITS WAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND
THIS LOOKS TO BE THE CASE TODAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS AND ABOUT A
30% CHANCE IN THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THE GOES SOUNDER REFLECTS
THIS IN SHOWING PWAT VALUES RANGING FROM AROUND 1.5" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO NEAR 2" BY THE LAKE.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE TROUGH WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPING OVER CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. WITH THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THERE COULD
BE SOME DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN STORM COVERAGE WITH THE GFS
SHOWING A MOISTURE SURGE ARRIVING LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH PWATS CLIMBING TO NEAR 2" ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
THE ECMWF IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BUT AT ANY RATE THE HIGHEST CHANCES
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO
REGIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
THE WIND WILL BE S-SW AT LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. DAY TO DAY
THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WITH SOME PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS AND LOCALLY ROUGH SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  77  92  75 /  30  10  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  78  91  77 /  20  10  50  30
MIAMI            92  78  92  77 /  20  10  40  20
NAPLES           88  78  89  79 /  20  10  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290536
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LAKE. KEPT VCSH IN THE TAFS AT PBI, JUST
IN CASE SOME SHOWERS MEANDER INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR THE WEST COAST AND LAKE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL POPS HELD FOR A FEW HRS
ACROSS THOSE REGIONS ONLY. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN LATE JULY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. SW FLOW AND NO RAIN
PUSHED FT LAUDERDALE TO 95F TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION RAIN FREE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE LAKE REGION AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS
OFFSHORE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND THE ADDITIONAL FORCING GIVES A BETTER CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEEPER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN THE BEST
CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

THE H5 RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD TROUGHING
DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MAY DEEPEN TO A POINT THAT LATE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY ONCE AGAIN
DROP INTO THE EASTERN GULF, PERHAPS SPREADING PERSISTENT RAINFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST AGAIN.

MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE THAT THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE IS
DEVELOPING BUT NOT PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED WITH ANY ACTIVITY MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. NO TERMINALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ASSIGNED
VCTS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  77  92  75 /  30  20  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  94  78  92  77 /  30  20  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  94  77 /  30  10  30  20
NAPLES           93  79  90  79 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290536
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LAKE. KEPT VCSH IN THE TAFS AT PBI, JUST
IN CASE SOME SHOWERS MEANDER INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR THE WEST COAST AND LAKE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL POPS HELD FOR A FEW HRS
ACROSS THOSE REGIONS ONLY. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN LATE JULY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. SW FLOW AND NO RAIN
PUSHED FT LAUDERDALE TO 95F TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION RAIN FREE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE LAKE REGION AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS
OFFSHORE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND THE ADDITIONAL FORCING GIVES A BETTER CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEEPER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN THE BEST
CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

THE H5 RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD TROUGHING
DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MAY DEEPEN TO A POINT THAT LATE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY ONCE AGAIN
DROP INTO THE EASTERN GULF, PERHAPS SPREADING PERSISTENT RAINFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST AGAIN.

MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE THAT THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE IS
DEVELOPING BUT NOT PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED WITH ANY ACTIVITY MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. NO TERMINALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ASSIGNED
VCTS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  77  92  75 /  30  20  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  94  78  92  77 /  30  20  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  94  77 /  30  10  30  20
NAPLES           93  79  90  79 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 290536
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE LAKE. KEPT VCSH IN THE TAFS AT PBI, JUST
IN CASE SOME SHOWERS MEANDER INTO THE AREA. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR THE WEST COAST AND LAKE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL POPS HELD FOR A FEW HRS
ACROSS THOSE REGIONS ONLY. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN LATE JULY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. SW FLOW AND NO RAIN
PUSHED FT LAUDERDALE TO 95F TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION RAIN FREE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE LAKE REGION AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS
OFFSHORE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND THE ADDITIONAL FORCING GIVES A BETTER CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEEPER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN THE BEST
CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

THE H5 RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD TROUGHING
DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MAY DEEPEN TO A POINT THAT LATE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY ONCE AGAIN
DROP INTO THE EASTERN GULF, PERHAPS SPREADING PERSISTENT RAINFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST AGAIN.

MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE THAT THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE IS
DEVELOPING BUT NOT PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED WITH ANY ACTIVITY MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. NO TERMINALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ASSIGNED
VCTS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  77  92  75 /  30  20  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  94  78  92  77 /  30  20  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  94  77 /  30  10  30  20
NAPLES           93  79  90  79 /  10  10  40  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 290001
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR THE WEST COAST AND LAKE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL POPS HELD FOR A FEW HRS
ACROSS THOSE REGIONS ONLY. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN LATE JULY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. SW FLOW AND NO RAIN
PUSHED FT LAUDERDALE TO 95F TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS QUICKLY GIVEN WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST COAST SITES THIS EVENING. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION VCSH AFTER
15Z AS THE SEA BREEZE APPROACHES THE TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION RAIN FREE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE LAKE REGION AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS
OFFSHORE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND THE ADDITIONAL FORCING GIVES A BETTER CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEEPER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN THE BEST
CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

THE H5 RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD TROUGHING
DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MAY DEEPEN TO A POINT THAT LATE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY ONCE AGAIN
DROP INTO THE EASTERN GULF, PERHAPS SPREADING PERSISTENT RAINFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST AGAIN.

MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE THAT THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE IS
DEVELOPING BUT NOT PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED WITH ANY ACTIVITY MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. NO TERMINALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ASSIGNED
VCTS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  94  77  92 /  10  30  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  94  78  92 /  10  30  20  40
MIAMI            79  95  78  94 /   0  30  10  30
NAPLES           79  93  79  90 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 290001
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
801 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPED NEAR THE WEST COAST AND LAKE
REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. MINIMAL POPS HELD FOR A FEW HRS
ACROSS THOSE REGIONS ONLY. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN LATE JULY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. SW FLOW AND NO RAIN
PUSHED FT LAUDERDALE TO 95F TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS QUICKLY GIVEN WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST COAST SITES THIS EVENING. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION VCSH AFTER
15Z AS THE SEA BREEZE APPROACHES THE TERMINALS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION RAIN FREE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE LAKE REGION AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS
OFFSHORE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND THE ADDITIONAL FORCING GIVES A BETTER CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEEPER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN THE BEST
CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

THE H5 RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD TROUGHING
DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MAY DEEPEN TO A POINT THAT LATE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY ONCE AGAIN
DROP INTO THE EASTERN GULF, PERHAPS SPREADING PERSISTENT RAINFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST AGAIN.

MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE THAT THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE IS
DEVELOPING BUT NOT PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED WITH ANY ACTIVITY MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. NO TERMINALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ASSIGNED
VCTS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  94  77  92 /  10  30  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  94  78  92 /  10  30  20  40
MIAMI            79  95  78  94 /   0  30  10  30
NAPLES           79  93  79  90 /  20  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 282345
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS QUICKLY GIVEN WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST COAST SITES THIS EVENING. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION VCSH AFTER
15Z AS THE SEA BREEZE APPROACHES THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION RAIN FREE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE LAKE REGION AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS
OFFSHORE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND THE ADDITIONAL FORCING GIVES A BETTER CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEEPER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN THE BEST
CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

THE H5 RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD TROUGHING
DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MAY DEEPEN TO A POINT THAT LATE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY ONCE AGAIN
DROP INTO THE EASTERN GULF, PERHAPS SPREADING PERSISTENT RAINFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST AGAIN.

MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE THAT THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE IS
DEVELOPING BUT NOT PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED WITH ANY ACTIVITY MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. NO TERMINALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ASSIGNED
VCTS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  94  77  92 /  10  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  94  78  92 /  10  40  20  40
MIAMI            79  95  78  94 /   0  30  10  30
NAPLES           79  93  79  90 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 282345
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS QUICKLY GIVEN WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST COAST SITES THIS EVENING. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION VCSH AFTER
15Z AS THE SEA BREEZE APPROACHES THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION RAIN FREE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE LAKE REGION AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS
OFFSHORE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND THE ADDITIONAL FORCING GIVES A BETTER CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEEPER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN THE BEST
CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

THE H5 RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD TROUGHING
DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MAY DEEPEN TO A POINT THAT LATE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY ONCE AGAIN
DROP INTO THE EASTERN GULF, PERHAPS SPREADING PERSISTENT RAINFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST AGAIN.

MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE THAT THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE IS
DEVELOPING BUT NOT PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED WITH ANY ACTIVITY MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. NO TERMINALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ASSIGNED
VCTS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  94  77  92 /  10  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  94  78  92 /  10  40  20  40
MIAMI            79  95  78  94 /   0  30  10  30
NAPLES           79  93  79  90 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 282345
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS QUICKLY GIVEN WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST COAST SITES THIS EVENING. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION VCSH AFTER
15Z AS THE SEA BREEZE APPROACHES THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION RAIN FREE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE LAKE REGION AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS
OFFSHORE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND THE ADDITIONAL FORCING GIVES A BETTER CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEEPER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN THE BEST
CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

THE H5 RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD TROUGHING
DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MAY DEEPEN TO A POINT THAT LATE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY ONCE AGAIN
DROP INTO THE EASTERN GULF, PERHAPS SPREADING PERSISTENT RAINFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST AGAIN.

MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE THAT THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE IS
DEVELOPING BUT NOT PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED WITH ANY ACTIVITY MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. NO TERMINALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ASSIGNED
VCTS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  94  77  92 /  10  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  94  78  92 /  10  40  20  40
MIAMI            79  95  78  94 /   0  30  10  30
NAPLES           79  93  79  90 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 282345
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS QUICKLY GIVEN WAY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE EAST COAST SITES THIS EVENING. BELIEVE THE BULK
OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION WILL STAY NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...WILL MENTION VCSH AFTER
15Z AS THE SEA BREEZE APPROACHES THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 216 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION RAIN FREE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE LAKE REGION AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS
OFFSHORE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND THE ADDITIONAL FORCING GIVES A BETTER CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEEPER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN THE BEST
CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

THE H5 RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD TROUGHING
DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MAY DEEPEN TO A POINT THAT LATE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY ONCE AGAIN
DROP INTO THE EASTERN GULF, PERHAPS SPREADING PERSISTENT RAINFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST AGAIN.

MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE THAT THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE IS
DEVELOPING BUT NOT PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED WITH ANY ACTIVITY MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. NO TERMINALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ASSIGNED
VCTS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  94  77  92 /  10  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  94  78  92 /  10  40  20  40
MIAMI            79  95  78  94 /   0  30  10  30
NAPLES           79  93  79  90 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281816
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
216 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION RAIN FREE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE LAKE REGION AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS
OFFSHORE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING STRECTING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND THE ADDITIONAL FORCING GIVES A BETTER CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEEPER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN THE BEST
CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

THE H5 RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD TROUGHING
DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MAY DEEPEN TO A POINT THAT LATE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY ONCE AGAIN
DROP INTO THE EASTERN GULF, PERHAPS SPREADING PERSISTENT RAINFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. A MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED AS A TROUGH SPLITS RIDGING CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE WEEK
AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE THAT THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE IS
DEVELOPING BUT NOT PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED WITH ANY ACTIVITY MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. NO TERMINALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ASSIGNED
VCTS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  94  77  92 /  10  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  94  78  92 /  10  40  20  40
MIAMI            79  95  78  94 /   0  30  10  30
NAPLES           79  93  79  90 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281816
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
216 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...

DRIER AIR AND LACK OF FORCING WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION RAIN FREE
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE
THROUGH THE LAKE REGION AND THE EXTREME NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA MAY GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE WILL DROP THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TOMORROW, AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS
OFFSHORE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO MIDLEVEL
TROUGHING STRECTING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT AND THE ADDITIONAL FORCING GIVES A BETTER CHANCE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEEPER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL ONLY 20 TO 40 PERCENT. ONCE AGAIN THE BEST
CHC WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

THE H5 RIDGE NOW CENTERED OVER THE ARKLATEX WILL RETROGRADE BACK
TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE WEEK, WITH BROAD TROUGHING
DOWN THE EASTERN CONUS COAST. IN ADDITION, A WEAK UPPER LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS THIS WEEKEND. ALL OF THESE FACTORS WILL LEAD
TO MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH MAY DEEPEN TO A POINT THAT LATE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MAY ONCE AGAIN
DROP INTO THE EASTERN GULF, PERHAPS SPREADING PERSISTENT RAINFALL
ALONG THE WEST COAST AGAIN.


&&

.AVIATION...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE WEEK. A MORE SOUTHERLY OR SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED AS A TROUGH SPLITS RIDGING CURRENTLY IN
PLACE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS LATE WEEK
AND THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

IN GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE THAT THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE IS
DEVELOPING BUT NOT PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED WITH ANY ACTIVITY MAINLY
CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. NO TERMINALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA ASSIGNED
VCTS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  94  77  92 /  10  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  94  78  92 /  10  40  20  40
MIAMI            79  95  78  94 /   0  30  10  30
NAPLES           79  93  79  90 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281750
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...

IN GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE THAT THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE
IS DEVELOPING BUT NOT PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED WITH ANY ACTIVITY
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. NO TERMINALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
ASSIGNED VCTS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...

ALL THE RECENT MESO-SCALE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LACK
OF POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO BE AROUND THE LAKE REGION...WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE LOWER REGIONAL PWAT...AROUND 1.5 INCHES FROM THE 12Z
SOUNDING...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LAPSE RATES NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION. OTHER THAN JUST SLIGHT CHANGES TO
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/MIST ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS TO AROUND 4-5 SM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AND THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR.

LIMITED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AFTER 17-18Z.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED WITH NO TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO
NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING SOME SLIGHT
DRYING ALOFT TO OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE PWAT
LOWERING TODAY AND SATELLITE ESTIMATED TOTAL PWAT CONFIRMS THIS
INDICATING VALUES AS OF 06Z RANGING FROM NEAR 1.4" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO AROUND 1.8" JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. FOR
THIS REASON, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE REGION TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG TROUGH MOVING THE NORTHERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE
WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED
CONCENTRATING OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO REGIONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME,
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF -7C TO -8C
WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT THE COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ACTION THAN
WHAT WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON.

BY SATURDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COL REGION
EVOLVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AMPLIFICATION TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TO OUR EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL REVERT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BACK TO ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH THE MOST ACTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE
INTERIOR.

MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IDEAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
ROUGH WATERS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  77  93 /  20  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  92  78  93 /  10  40  10  50
MIAMI            79  93  78  93 /  10  30  10  50
NAPLES           79  88  80  90 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281750
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...

IN GENERAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER
LOCAL OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE THAT THE ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE
IS DEVELOPING BUT NOT PENETRATING VERY FAR INLAND. CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE REDUCED WITH ANY ACTIVITY
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE REGION. NO TERMINALS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
ASSIGNED VCTS WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO PREVAIL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1046 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

UPDATE...

ALL THE RECENT MESO-SCALE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LACK
OF POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO BE AROUND THE LAKE REGION...WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE LOWER REGIONAL PWAT...AROUND 1.5 INCHES FROM THE 12Z
SOUNDING...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LAPSE RATES NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION. OTHER THAN JUST SLIGHT CHANGES TO
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/MIST ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS TO AROUND 4-5 SM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AND THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR.

LIMITED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AFTER 17-18Z.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED WITH NO TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO
NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING SOME SLIGHT
DRYING ALOFT TO OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE PWAT
LOWERING TODAY AND SATELLITE ESTIMATED TOTAL PWAT CONFIRMS THIS
INDICATING VALUES AS OF 06Z RANGING FROM NEAR 1.4" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO AROUND 1.8" JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. FOR
THIS REASON, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE REGION TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG TROUGH MOVING THE NORTHERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE
WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED
CONCENTRATING OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO REGIONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME,
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF -7C TO -8C
WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT THE COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ACTION THAN
WHAT WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON.

BY SATURDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COL REGION
EVOLVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AMPLIFICATION TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TO OUR EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL REVERT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BACK TO ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH THE MOST ACTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE
INTERIOR.

MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IDEAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
ROUGH WATERS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  77  93 /  20  40  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  92  78  93 /  10  40  10  50
MIAMI            79  93  78  93 /  10  30  10  50
NAPLES           79  88  80  90 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281446
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1046 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...

ALL THE RECENT MESO-SCALE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LACK
OF POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT LIKELY TO BE AROUND THE LAKE REGION...WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH
THE LOWER REGIONAL PWAT...AROUND 1.5 INCHES FROM THE 12Z
SOUNDING...WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND LAPSE RATES NOT
FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION. OTHER THAN JUST SLIGHT CHANGES TO
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...NO CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST PACKAGE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/MIST ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS TO AROUND 4-5 SM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AND THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR.

LIMITED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AFTER 17-18Z.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED WITH NO TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO
NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING SOME SLIGHT
DRYING ALOFT TO OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE PWAT
LOWERING TODAY AND SATELLITE ESTIMATED TOTAL PWAT CONFIRMS THIS
INDICATING VALUES AS OF 06Z RANGING FROM NEAR 1.4" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO AROUND 1.8" JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. FOR
THIS REASON, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE REGION TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG TROUGH MOVING THE NORTHERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE
WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED
CONCENTRATING OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO REGIONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME,
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF -7C TO -8C
WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT THE COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ACTION THAN
WHAT WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON.

BY SATURDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COL REGION
EVOLVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AMPLIFICATION TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TO OUR EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL REVERT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BACK TO ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH THE MOST ACTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE
INTERIOR.

MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IDEAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
ROUGH WATERS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  78  91  77 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  78 /  20  10  40  10
MIAMI            93  79  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
NAPLES           90  79  88  80 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281152
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/MIST ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS TO AROUND 4-5 SM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AND THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR.

LIMITED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AFTER 17-18Z.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED WITH NO TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO
NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING SOME SLIGHT
DRYING ALOFT TO OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE PWAT
LOWERING TODAY AND SATELLITE ESTIMATED TOTAL PWAT CONFIRMS THIS
INDICATING VALUES AS OF 06Z RANGING FROM NEAR 1.4" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO AROUND 1.8" JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. FOR
THIS REASON, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE REGION TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG TROUGH MOVING THE NORTHERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE
WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED
CONCENTRATING OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO REGIONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME,
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF -7C TO -8C
WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT THE COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ACTION THAN
WHAT WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON.

BY SATURDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COL REGION
EVOLVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AMPLIFICATION TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TO OUR EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL REVERT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BACK TO ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH THE MOST ACTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE
INTERIOR.

MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IDEAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
ROUGH WATERS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  78  91  77 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  78 /  20  10  40  10
MIAMI            93  79  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
NAPLES           90  79  88  80 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281152
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/MIST ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS TO AROUND 4-5 SM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AND THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR.

LIMITED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AFTER 17-18Z.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED WITH NO TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO
NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING SOME SLIGHT
DRYING ALOFT TO OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE PWAT
LOWERING TODAY AND SATELLITE ESTIMATED TOTAL PWAT CONFIRMS THIS
INDICATING VALUES AS OF 06Z RANGING FROM NEAR 1.4" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO AROUND 1.8" JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. FOR
THIS REASON, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE REGION TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG TROUGH MOVING THE NORTHERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE
WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED
CONCENTRATING OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO REGIONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME,
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF -7C TO -8C
WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT THE COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ACTION THAN
WHAT WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON.

BY SATURDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COL REGION
EVOLVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AMPLIFICATION TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TO OUR EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL REVERT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BACK TO ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH THE MOST ACTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE
INTERIOR.

MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IDEAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
ROUGH WATERS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  78  91  77 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  78 /  20  10  40  10
MIAMI            93  79  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
NAPLES           90  79  88  80 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281152
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/MIST ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS TO AROUND 4-5 SM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AND THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR.

LIMITED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AFTER 17-18Z.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED WITH NO TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO
NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING SOME SLIGHT
DRYING ALOFT TO OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE PWAT
LOWERING TODAY AND SATELLITE ESTIMATED TOTAL PWAT CONFIRMS THIS
INDICATING VALUES AS OF 06Z RANGING FROM NEAR 1.4" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO AROUND 1.8" JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. FOR
THIS REASON, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE REGION TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG TROUGH MOVING THE NORTHERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE
WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED
CONCENTRATING OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO REGIONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME,
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF -7C TO -8C
WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT THE COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ACTION THAN
WHAT WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON.

BY SATURDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COL REGION
EVOLVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AMPLIFICATION TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TO OUR EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL REVERT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BACK TO ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH THE MOST ACTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE
INTERIOR.

MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IDEAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
ROUGH WATERS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  78  91  77 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  78 /  20  10  40  10
MIAMI            93  79  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
NAPLES           90  79  88  80 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281152
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE IS SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG/MIST ALONG
THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS TO AROUND 4-5 SM OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AND THEN EXPECTED TO CLEAR.

LIMITED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA
TODAY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME AFTER 17-18Z.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO BE LIMITED WITH NO TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO
NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING SOME SLIGHT
DRYING ALOFT TO OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE PWAT
LOWERING TODAY AND SATELLITE ESTIMATED TOTAL PWAT CONFIRMS THIS
INDICATING VALUES AS OF 06Z RANGING FROM NEAR 1.4" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO AROUND 1.8" JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. FOR
THIS REASON, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE REGION TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG TROUGH MOVING THE NORTHERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE
WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED
CONCENTRATING OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO REGIONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME,
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF -7C TO -8C
WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT THE COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ACTION THAN
WHAT WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON.

BY SATURDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COL REGION
EVOLVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AMPLIFICATION TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TO OUR EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL REVERT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BACK TO ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH THE MOST ACTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE
INTERIOR.

MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IDEAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
ROUGH WATERS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  78  91  77 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  78 /  20  10  40  10
MIAMI            93  79  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
NAPLES           90  79  88  80 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280731
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
331 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO
NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING SOME SLIGHT
DRYING ALOFT TO OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE PWAT
LOWERING TODAY AND SATELLITE ESTIMATED TOTAL PWAT CONFIRMS THIS
INDICATING VALUES AS OF 06Z RANGING FROM NEAR 1.4" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO AROUND 1.8" JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. FOR
THIS REASON, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE REGION TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG TROUGH MOVING THE NORTHERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE
WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED
CONCENTRATING OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO REGIONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME,
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF -7C TO -8C
WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT THE COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ACTION THAN
WHAT WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON.

BY SATURDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COL REGION
EVOLVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AMPLIFICATION TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TO OUR EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL REVERT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BACK TO ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH THE MOST ACTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IDEAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
ROUGH WATERS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  78  91  77 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  78 /  20  10  40  10
MIAMI            93  79  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
NAPLES           90  79  88  80 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION....13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 280731
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
331 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH ONLY DAY TO DAY FLUCTUATIONS IN THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT
HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS LIFTED TO
NORTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING WHICH IN TURN IS ALLOWING SOME SLIGHT
DRYING ALOFT TO OCCUR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING THE PWAT
LOWERING TODAY AND SATELLITE ESTIMATED TOTAL PWAT CONFIRMS THIS
INDICATING VALUES AS OF 06Z RANGING FROM NEAR 1.4" ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TO AROUND 1.8" JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. FOR
THIS REASON, ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY IN THE LAKE REGION TO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ON WEDNESDAY, THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE TO THE SOUTH AGAIN AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDS TO THE EAST IN RESPONSE TO A
STRONG TROUGH MOVING THE NORTHERN STATES. AS THIS OCCURS, MOISTURE
WILL RETURN WITH AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORMS EXPECTED
CONCENTRATING OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO REGIONS. THIS
PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH FRIDAY. THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME,
TEMPERATURES AT 500MB ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE RANGE OF -7C TO -8C
WHICH IS RIGHT AT THE AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT THE COOLING ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR MORE ACTION THAN
WHAT WILL BE SEEN THIS AFTERNOON.

BY SATURDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING A COL REGION
EVOLVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH AMPLIFICATION TO THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND TO OUR EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL REVERT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BACK TO ALONG
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES WITH THE MOST ACTION CONCENTRATED OVER THE
INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IDEAL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS
OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY
ROUGH WATERS, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  78  91  77 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  78 /  20  10  40  10
MIAMI            93  79  93  78 /  20  10  30  10
NAPLES           90  79  88  80 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280550
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
THE SURFACE LOW THAT HAD BROUGHT THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO SOUTH
FLORIDA, HAS WEAKENED AND DRIFTED NORTH. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
QUIETER WEATHER DAY, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BEING NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN SO, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS, AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FOR AREAS FROM BROWARD
COUNTY NORTH, AS WELL AS COLLIER COUNTY. THIS IS CURRENTLY REFLECT
WITH VCSH FOR ALL BUT KOPF, KMIA, AND KTMB. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...

TRANQUIL NIGHT TO FOLLOW. UPDATED GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/WEST COAST OF FL. STILL MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ALONG
THE WEST COAST TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS THIS PAST WEEKEND`S EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH, DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR HAS FILLED THE
GAP COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN LESS NUMEROUS, ALTHOUGH JUST A FEW REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MEAGER H5 TEMPS AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES HAVE ALSO KEPT COVERAGE DOWN. THE WIND PROFILE HOWEVER IS
STILL REMINISCENT OF A FALL OR WINTER ONE, THUS ANY SMALLER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD EASILY PRODUCE A 45 MPH WIND GUST.

ALTHOUGH SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY NORTH FLORIDA MUCH OF
THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION, ENOUGH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDLEVELS TO KEEP POPS MOSTLY BELOW
50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. POPS FROM LOCAL BLENDS ACTUALLY
MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING PWATS AND MOISTURE DEPTH ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION, WITH ANY ADDED
NUDGE FROM COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE SUFFICIENT TO
PUNCH THROUGH THE DRY LAYER. AT LEAST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK, H5
TEMPS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE, SO LIKELY A
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS IS PRODUCING SUCH DRY QPF FORECASTS
FROM THE MODEL SUITE. CONDS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY, SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE. THE GFS EVEN FEATURES A DECENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWV
DROPPING SOUTH BY WED AND THURS OVER THE LAKE REGION BUT STILL
KEEPS QPF RATHER DRY. NOT TOTALLY BUYING A DRY SOLUTION SO POPS
WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FROM LOCAL BLENDS WED AND THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING. IN ADDITION, WITH ONLY SLT
CHC TO CHC POPS FORECAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW, MAX T WILL LIKELY
COME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LOCAL BLENDS AT EAST COAST SITES
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE TOO.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY MOVING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS PER THE GFS BUT TAKING A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL CHANGE THE CURRENT
REGIME IN SEVERAL WAYS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE, H5 TEMPS
AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS IT
APPROACHES, AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION, THIS SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE H5 RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALSO EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A CONSTANT SUPPLY
OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM
BECOMING TOO NUMEROUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  78  91  76 /  40  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  78 /  30  20  30  20
MIAMI            94  79  93  78 /  20  10  20  10
NAPLES           90  79  90  79 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280550
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.AVIATION...
THE SURFACE LOW THAT HAD BROUGHT THE ACTIVE WEATHER TO SOUTH
FLORIDA, HAS WEAKENED AND DRIFTED NORTH. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A
QUIETER WEATHER DAY, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY BEING NORTH OF THE
AREA. EVEN SO, THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR SOME CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS, AND MAYBE EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FOR AREAS FROM BROWARD
COUNTY NORTH, AS WELL AS COLLIER COUNTY. THIS IS CURRENTLY REFLECT
WITH VCSH FOR ALL BUT KOPF, KMIA, AND KTMB. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

UPDATE...

TRANQUIL NIGHT TO FOLLOW. UPDATED GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/WEST COAST OF FL. STILL MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ALONG
THE WEST COAST TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS THIS PAST WEEKEND`S EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH, DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR HAS FILLED THE
GAP COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN LESS NUMEROUS, ALTHOUGH JUST A FEW REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MEAGER H5 TEMPS AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES HAVE ALSO KEPT COVERAGE DOWN. THE WIND PROFILE HOWEVER IS
STILL REMINISCENT OF A FALL OR WINTER ONE, THUS ANY SMALLER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD EASILY PRODUCE A 45 MPH WIND GUST.

ALTHOUGH SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY NORTH FLORIDA MUCH OF
THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION, ENOUGH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDLEVELS TO KEEP POPS MOSTLY BELOW
50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. POPS FROM LOCAL BLENDS ACTUALLY
MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING PWATS AND MOISTURE DEPTH ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION, WITH ANY ADDED
NUDGE FROM COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE SUFFICIENT TO
PUNCH THROUGH THE DRY LAYER. AT LEAST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK, H5
TEMPS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE, SO LIKELY A
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS IS PRODUCING SUCH DRY QPF FORECASTS
FROM THE MODEL SUITE. CONDS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY, SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE. THE GFS EVEN FEATURES A DECENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWV
DROPPING SOUTH BY WED AND THURS OVER THE LAKE REGION BUT STILL
KEEPS QPF RATHER DRY. NOT TOTALLY BUYING A DRY SOLUTION SO POPS
WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FROM LOCAL BLENDS WED AND THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING. IN ADDITION, WITH ONLY SLT
CHC TO CHC POPS FORECAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW, MAX T WILL LIKELY
COME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LOCAL BLENDS AT EAST COAST SITES
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE TOO.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY MOVING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS PER THE GFS BUT TAKING A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL CHANGE THE CURRENT
REGIME IN SEVERAL WAYS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE, H5 TEMPS
AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS IT
APPROACHES, AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION, THIS SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE H5 RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALSO EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A CONSTANT SUPPLY
OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM
BECOMING TOO NUMEROUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  78  91  76 /  40  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  78 /  30  20  30  20
MIAMI            94  79  93  78 /  20  10  20  10
NAPLES           90  79  90  79 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 272355
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...

TRANQUIL NIGHT TO FOLLOW. UPDATED GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/WEST COAST OF FL. STILL MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ALONG
THE WEST COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTING TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER/WET SEASON
ONE...AS LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKEN AND RETREAT
NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 KT OR LESS.
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EARLIER INITIATION
AT KAPF. HOWEVER...PROBS ARE LOW THUS VCTS NOT INTRODUCED ATTM.
TSTM CHCS AROUND 20 PCT AT MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS...SO ELECTED TO
LEAVE THOSE DRY WITH 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS THIS PAST WEEKEND`S EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH, DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR HAS FILLED THE
GAP COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN LESS NUMEROUS, ALTHOUGH JUST A FEW REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MEAGER H5 TEMPS AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES HAVE ALSO KEPT COVERAGE DOWN. THE WIND PROFILE HOWEVER IS
STILL REMINISCENT OF A FALL OR WINTER ONE, THUS ANY SMALLER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD EASILY PRODUCE A 45 MPH WIND GUST.

ALTHOUGH SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY NORTH FLORIDA MUCH OF
THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION, ENOUGH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDLEVELS TO KEEP POPS MOSTLY BELOW
50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. POPS FROM LOCAL BLENDS ACTUALLY
MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING PWATS AND MOISTURE DEPTH ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION, WITH ANY ADDED
NUDGE FROM COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE SUFFICIENT TO
PUNCH THROUGH THE DRY LAYER. AT LEAST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK, H5
TEMPS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE, SO LIKELY A
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS IS PRODUCING SUCH DRY QPF FORECASTS
FROM THE MODEL SUITE. CONDS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY, SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE. THE GFS EVEN FEATURES A DECENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWV
DROPPING SOUTH BY WED AND THURS OVER THE LAKE REGION BUT STILL
KEEPS QPF RATHER DRY. NOT TOTALLY BUYING A DRY SOLUTION SO POPS
WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FROM LOCAL BLENDS WED AND THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING. IN ADDITION, WITH ONLY SLT
CHC TO CHC POPS FORECAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW, MAX T WILL LIKELY
COME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LOCAL BLENDS AT EAST COAST SITES
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE TOO.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY MOVING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS PER THE GFS BUT TAKING A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL CHANGE THE CURRENT
REGIME IN SEVERAL WAYS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE, H5 TEMPS
AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS IT
APPROACHES, AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION, THIS SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE H5 RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALSO EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A CONSTANT SUPPLY
OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM
BECOMING TOO NUMEROUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  94  78  91 /  20  40  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            79  94  79  93 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           79  90  79  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 272355
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...

TRANQUIL NIGHT TO FOLLOW. UPDATED GRIDS FOR CURRENT TRENDS. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT NORTH THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO/WEST COAST OF FL. STILL MAY GENERATE SOME SHOWERS ALONG
THE WEST COAST TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

AVIATION...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTING TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER/WET SEASON
ONE...AS LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKEN AND RETREAT
NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 KT OR LESS.
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EARLIER INITIATION
AT KAPF. HOWEVER...PROBS ARE LOW THUS VCTS NOT INTRODUCED ATTM.
TSTM CHCS AROUND 20 PCT AT MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS...SO ELECTED TO
LEAVE THOSE DRY WITH 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS THIS PAST WEEKEND`S EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH, DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR HAS FILLED THE
GAP COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN LESS NUMEROUS, ALTHOUGH JUST A FEW REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MEAGER H5 TEMPS AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES HAVE ALSO KEPT COVERAGE DOWN. THE WIND PROFILE HOWEVER IS
STILL REMINISCENT OF A FALL OR WINTER ONE, THUS ANY SMALLER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD EASILY PRODUCE A 45 MPH WIND GUST.

ALTHOUGH SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY NORTH FLORIDA MUCH OF
THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION, ENOUGH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDLEVELS TO KEEP POPS MOSTLY BELOW
50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. POPS FROM LOCAL BLENDS ACTUALLY
MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING PWATS AND MOISTURE DEPTH ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION, WITH ANY ADDED
NUDGE FROM COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE SUFFICIENT TO
PUNCH THROUGH THE DRY LAYER. AT LEAST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK, H5
TEMPS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE, SO LIKELY A
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS IS PRODUCING SUCH DRY QPF FORECASTS
FROM THE MODEL SUITE. CONDS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY, SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE. THE GFS EVEN FEATURES A DECENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWV
DROPPING SOUTH BY WED AND THURS OVER THE LAKE REGION BUT STILL
KEEPS QPF RATHER DRY. NOT TOTALLY BUYING A DRY SOLUTION SO POPS
WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FROM LOCAL BLENDS WED AND THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING. IN ADDITION, WITH ONLY SLT
CHC TO CHC POPS FORECAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW, MAX T WILL LIKELY
COME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LOCAL BLENDS AT EAST COAST SITES
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE TOO.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY MOVING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS PER THE GFS BUT TAKING A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL CHANGE THE CURRENT
REGIME IN SEVERAL WAYS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE, H5 TEMPS
AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS IT
APPROACHES, AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION, THIS SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE H5 RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALSO EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A CONSTANT SUPPLY
OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM
BECOMING TOO NUMEROUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  94  78  91 /  20  40  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            79  94  79  93 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           79  90  79  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 272319
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
719 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTING TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER/WET SEASON
ONE...AS LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKEN AND RETREAT
NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 KT OR LESS.
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EARLIER INITIATION
AT KAPF. HOWEVER...PROBS ARE LOW THUS VCTS NOT INTRODUCED ATTM.
TSTM CHCS AROUND 20 PCT AT MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS...SO ELECTED TO
LEAVE THOSE DRY WITH 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS THIS PAST WEEKEND`S EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH, DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR HAS FILLED THE
GAP COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN LESS NUMEROUS, ALTHOUGH JUST A FEW REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MEAGER H5 TEMPS AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES HAVE ALSO KEPT COVERAGE DOWN. THE WIND PROFILE HOWEVER IS
STILL REMINISCENT OF A FALL OR WINTER ONE, THUS ANY SMALLER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD EASILY PRODUCE A 45 MPH WIND GUST.

ALTHOUGH SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY NORTH FLORIDA MUCH OF
THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION, ENOUGH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDLEVELS TO KEEP POPS MOSTLY BELOW
50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. POPS FROM LOCAL BLENDS ACTUALLY
MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING PWATS AND MOISTURE DEPTH ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION, WITH ANY ADDED
NUDGE FROM COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE SUFFICENT TO
PUNCH THROUGH THE DRY LAYER. AT LEAST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK, H5
TEMPS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE, SO LIKELY A
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS IS PRODUCING SUCH DRY QPF FORECASTS
FROM THE MODEL SUITE. CONDS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY, SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE. THE GFS EVEN FEATURES A DECENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWV
DROPPING SOUTH BY WED AND THURS OVER THE LAKE REGION BUT STILL
KEEPS QPF RATHER DRY. NOT TOTALLY BUYING A DRY SOLUTION SO POPS
WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FROM LOCAL BLENDS WED AND THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING. IN ADDITION, WITH ONLY SLT
CHC TO CHC POPS FORECAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW, MAX T WILL LIKELY
COME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LOCAL BLENDS AT EAST COAST SITES
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE TOO.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY MOVING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS PER THE GFS BUT TAKING A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL CHANGE THE CURRENT
REGIME IN SEVERAL WAYS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE, H5 TEMPS
AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS IT
APPROACHES, AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION, THIS SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE H5 RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALSO EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A CONSTANT SUPPLY
OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM
BECOMING TOO NUMEROUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  94  78  91 /  30  40  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            79  94  79  93 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           79  90  79  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 272319
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
719 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTING TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER/WET SEASON
ONE...AS LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKEN AND RETREAT
NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 KT OR LESS.
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EARLIER INITIATION
AT KAPF. HOWEVER...PROBS ARE LOW THUS VCTS NOT INTRODUCED ATTM.
TSTM CHCS AROUND 20 PCT AT MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS...SO ELECTED TO
LEAVE THOSE DRY WITH 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS THIS PAST WEEKEND`S EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH, DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR HAS FILLED THE
GAP COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN LESS NUMEROUS, ALTHOUGH JUST A FEW REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MEAGER H5 TEMPS AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES HAVE ALSO KEPT COVERAGE DOWN. THE WIND PROFILE HOWEVER IS
STILL REMINISCENT OF A FALL OR WINTER ONE, THUS ANY SMALLER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD EASILY PRODUCE A 45 MPH WIND GUST.

ALTHOUGH SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY NORTH FLORIDA MUCH OF
THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION, ENOUGH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDLEVELS TO KEEP POPS MOSTLY BELOW
50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. POPS FROM LOCAL BLENDS ACTUALLY
MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING PWATS AND MOISTURE DEPTH ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION, WITH ANY ADDED
NUDGE FROM COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE SUFFICENT TO
PUNCH THROUGH THE DRY LAYER. AT LEAST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK, H5
TEMPS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE, SO LIKELY A
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS IS PRODUCING SUCH DRY QPF FORECASTS
FROM THE MODEL SUITE. CONDS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY, SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE. THE GFS EVEN FEATURES A DECENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWV
DROPPING SOUTH BY WED AND THURS OVER THE LAKE REGION BUT STILL
KEEPS QPF RATHER DRY. NOT TOTALLY BUYING A DRY SOLUTION SO POPS
WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FROM LOCAL BLENDS WED AND THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING. IN ADDITION, WITH ONLY SLT
CHC TO CHC POPS FORECAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW, MAX T WILL LIKELY
COME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LOCAL BLENDS AT EAST COAST SITES
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE TOO.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY MOVING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS PER THE GFS BUT TAKING A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL CHANGE THE CURRENT
REGIME IN SEVERAL WAYS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE, H5 TEMPS
AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS IT
APPROACHES, AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION, THIS SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE H5 RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALSO EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A CONSTANT SUPPLY
OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM
BECOMING TOO NUMEROUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  94  78  91 /  30  40  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            79  94  79  93 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           79  90  79  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 272319
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
719 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTING TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER/WET SEASON
ONE...AS LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKEN AND RETREAT
NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 KT OR LESS.
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EARLIER INITIATION
AT KAPF. HOWEVER...PROBS ARE LOW THUS VCTS NOT INTRODUCED ATTM.
TSTM CHCS AROUND 20 PCT AT MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS...SO ELECTED TO
LEAVE THOSE DRY WITH 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS THIS PAST WEEKEND`S EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH, DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR HAS FILLED THE
GAP COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN LESS NUMEROUS, ALTHOUGH JUST A FEW REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MEAGER H5 TEMPS AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES HAVE ALSO KEPT COVERAGE DOWN. THE WIND PROFILE HOWEVER IS
STILL REMINISCENT OF A FALL OR WINTER ONE, THUS ANY SMALLER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD EASILY PRODUCE A 45 MPH WIND GUST.

ALTHOUGH SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY NORTH FLORIDA MUCH OF
THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION, ENOUGH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDLEVELS TO KEEP POPS MOSTLY BELOW
50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. POPS FROM LOCAL BLENDS ACTUALLY
MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING PWATS AND MOISTURE DEPTH ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION, WITH ANY ADDED
NUDGE FROM COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE SUFFICENT TO
PUNCH THROUGH THE DRY LAYER. AT LEAST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK, H5
TEMPS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE, SO LIKELY A
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS IS PRODUCING SUCH DRY QPF FORECASTS
FROM THE MODEL SUITE. CONDS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY, SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE. THE GFS EVEN FEATURES A DECENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWV
DROPPING SOUTH BY WED AND THURS OVER THE LAKE REGION BUT STILL
KEEPS QPF RATHER DRY. NOT TOTALLY BUYING A DRY SOLUTION SO POPS
WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FROM LOCAL BLENDS WED AND THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING. IN ADDITION, WITH ONLY SLT
CHC TO CHC POPS FORECAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW, MAX T WILL LIKELY
COME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LOCAL BLENDS AT EAST COAST SITES
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE TOO.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY MOVING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS PER THE GFS BUT TAKING A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL CHANGE THE CURRENT
REGIME IN SEVERAL WAYS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE, H5 TEMPS
AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS IT
APPROACHES, AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION, THIS SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE H5 RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALSO EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A CONSTANT SUPPLY
OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM
BECOMING TOO NUMEROUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  94  78  91 /  30  40  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            79  94  79  93 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           79  90  79  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 272319
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
719 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.AVIATION...
OVERALL PATTERN SHIFTING TO A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER/WET SEASON
ONE...AS LOW PRESSURE AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKEN AND RETREAT
NORMAL. SOUTHWEST WIND WILL CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 KT OR LESS.
SHOWER CHANCES RETURN TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EARLIER INITIATION
AT KAPF. HOWEVER...PROBS ARE LOW THUS VCTS NOT INTRODUCED ATTM.
TSTM CHCS AROUND 20 PCT AT MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS...SO ELECTED TO
LEAVE THOSE DRY WITH 0Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS THIS PAST WEEKEND`S EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH, DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR HAS FILLED THE
GAP COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN LESS NUMEROUS, ALTHOUGH JUST A FEW REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MEAGER H5 TEMPS AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES HAVE ALSO KEPT COVERAGE DOWN. THE WIND PROFILE HOWEVER IS
STILL REMINISCENT OF A FALL OR WINTER ONE, THUS ANY SMALLER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD EASILY PRODUCE A 45 MPH WIND GUST.

ALTHOUGH SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY NORTH FLORIDA MUCH OF
THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION, ENOUGH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDLEVELS TO KEEP POPS MOSTLY BELOW
50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. POPS FROM LOCAL BLENDS ACTUALLY
MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING PWATS AND MOISTURE DEPTH ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION, WITH ANY ADDED
NUDGE FROM COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE SUFFICENT TO
PUNCH THROUGH THE DRY LAYER. AT LEAST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK, H5
TEMPS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE, SO LIKELY A
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS IS PRODUCING SUCH DRY QPF FORECASTS
FROM THE MODEL SUITE. CONDS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY, SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE. THE GFS EVEN FEATURES A DECENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWV
DROPPING SOUTH BY WED AND THURS OVER THE LAKE REGION BUT STILL
KEEPS QPF RATHER DRY. NOT TOTALLY BUYING A DRY SOLUTION SO POPS
WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FROM LOCAL BLENDS WED AND THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING. IN ADDITION, WITH ONLY SLT
CHC TO CHC POPS FORECAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW, MAX T WILL LIKELY
COME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LOCAL BLENDS AT EAST COAST SITES
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE TOO.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY MOVING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS PER THE GFS BUT TAKING A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL CHANGE THE CURRENT
REGIME IN SEVERAL WAYS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE, H5 TEMPS
AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS IT
APPROACHES, AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION, THIS SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE H5 RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALSO EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A CONSTANT SUPPLY
OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM
BECOMING TOO NUMEROUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  94  78  91 /  30  40  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            79  94  79  93 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           79  90  79  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 272045
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
445 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AS THIS PAST WEEKEND`S EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH, DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR HAS FILLED THE
GAP COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN LESS NUMEROUS, ALTHOUGH JUST A FEW REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MEAGER H5 TEMPS AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES HAVE ALSO KEPT COVERAGE DOWN. THE WIND PROFILE HOWEVER IS
STILL REMINISCENT OF A FALL OR WINTER ONE, THUS ANY SMALLER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD EASILY PRODUCE A 45 MPH WIND GUST.

ALTHOUGH SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY NORTH FLORIDA MUCH OF
THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION, ENOUGH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDLEVELS TO KEEP POPS MOSTLY BELOW
50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. POPS FROM LOCAL BLENDS ACTUALLY
MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING PWATS AND MOISTURE DEPTH ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION, WITH ANY ADDED
NUDGE FROM COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE SUFFICENT TO
PUNCH THROUGH THE DRY LAYER. AT LEAST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK, H5
TEMPS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE, SO LIKELY A
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS IS PRODUCING SUCH DRY QPF FORECASTS
FROM THE MODEL SUITE. CONDS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY, SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE. THE GFS EVEN FEATURES A DECENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWV
DROPPING SOUTH BY WED AND THURS OVER THE LAKE REGION BUT STILL
KEEPS QPF RATHER DRY. NOT TOTALLY BUYING A DRY SOLUTION SO POPS
WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FROM LOCAL BLENDS WED AND THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING. IN ADDITION, WITH ONLY SLT
CHC TO CHC POPS FORECAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW, MAX T WILL LIKELY
COME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LOCAL BLENDS AT EAST COAST SITES
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE TOO.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY MOVING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS PER THE GFS BUT TAKING A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL CHANGE THE CURRENT
REGIME IN SEVERAL WAYS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE, H5 TEMPS
AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS IT
APPROACHES, AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION, THIS SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE H5 RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALSO EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL FAVOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS...BUT TERMINAL
KAPF STILL ASSIGNED VCTS ALTHOUGH SHOWERS IS LIKELY GOING TO BE
THE PREVAILING CONDITION. ALL TERMINALS COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS COULD
VARY FROM SSE TO SSW AS THE SEA BREEZE INITIATES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A CONSTANT SUPPLY
OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM
BECOMING TOO NUMEROUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  94  78  91 /  30  40  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            79  94  79  93 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           79  90  79  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 272045
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
445 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

AS THIS PAST WEEKEND`S EASTERN GULF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUED TO
SLIGHTLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTH, DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR HAS FILLED THE
GAP COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION. SHOWERS AND
STORMS TODAY HAVE BEEN LESS NUMEROUS, ALTHOUGH JUST A FEW REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. MEAGER H5 TEMPS AND UNIMPRESSIVE LAPSE
RATES HAVE ALSO KEPT COVERAGE DOWN. THE WIND PROFILE HOWEVER IS
STILL REMINISCENT OF A FALL OR WINTER ONE, THUS ANY SMALLER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD EASILY PRODUCE A 45 MPH WIND GUST.

ALTHOUGH SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE REMAINS NEARBY NORTH FLORIDA MUCH OF
THIS WEEK, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR REGION, ENOUGH RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR WILL REMAIN IN THE MIDLEVELS TO KEEP POPS MOSTLY BELOW
50 PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. POPS FROM LOCAL BLENDS ACTUALLY
MAY BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CONSIDERING PWATS AND MOISTURE DEPTH ARE
STILL FAVORABLE FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION, WITH ANY ADDED
NUDGE FROM COLLIDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE SUFFICENT TO
PUNCH THROUGH THE DRY LAYER. AT LEAST UNTIL MID TO LATE WEEK, H5
TEMPS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN UNIMPRESSIVE, SO LIKELY A
COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS IS PRODUCING SUCH DRY QPF FORECASTS
FROM THE MODEL SUITE. CONDS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ACROSS THE
LAKE REGION AND PALM BEACH COUNTY, SO THAT IS WHERE THE HIGHEST
POPS WILL RESIDE. THE GFS EVEN FEATURES A DECENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWV
DROPPING SOUTH BY WED AND THURS OVER THE LAKE REGION BUT STILL
KEEPS QPF RATHER DRY. NOT TOTALLY BUYING A DRY SOLUTION SO POPS
WERE ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT FROM LOCAL BLENDS WED AND THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT
AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM FORMING. IN ADDITION, WITH ONLY SLT
CHC TO CHC POPS FORECAST AND SOUTHWEST FLOW, MAX T WILL LIKELY
COME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LOCAL BLENDS AT EAST COAST SITES
ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY SO SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE THERE TOO.

BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAK UPPER LOW APPROACHING
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND, POTENTIALLY MOVING
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND FLORIDA STRAITS PER THE GFS BUT TAKING A
MORE NORTHERLY TRACK PER THE ECMWF. THIS WILL CHANGE THE CURRENT
REGIME IN SEVERAL WAYS. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE, H5 TEMPS
AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS IT
APPROACHES, AND SURFACE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH AND EVEN THE
SOUTHEAST. REGARDLESS OF MODEL SOLUTION, THIS SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN
THE H5 RIDGE SHOULD LEAD TO MORE NUMEROUS STORMS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALSO EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...

SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL FAVOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA AND
IN THE VICINITY OF THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS...BUT TERMINAL
KAPF STILL ASSIGNED VCTS ALTHOUGH SHOWERS IS LIKELY GOING TO BE
THE PREVAILING CONDITION. ALL TERMINALS COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS TO NEAR IFR CONDITIONS WITH OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS COULD
VARY FROM SSE TO SSW AS THE SEA BREEZE INITIATES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER FROM THE NORTHEASTERN GULF TO THE
PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, A CONSTANT SUPPLY
OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM
BECOMING TOO NUMEROUS. SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK BUT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND FROM THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST BY THE WEEKEND. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  94  78  91 /  30  40  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            79  94  79  93 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           79  90  79  90 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...60/BD





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