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000
FXUS62 KMFL 240720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ELICIT A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CLOSE OFF THROUGH H5 AND H3. THE
RESULTING SUBSIDENCE WILL GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT OVER FLORIDA. THUS, MODEL SOUNDINGS CUT PWATS SIGNIFICANTLY
BY TUESDAY AND PERHAPS CLOSE TO 1" BY THURSDAY. BEFORE THEN,
MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT THROUGH THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT TYPICAL
MORNING AND LATE NIGHT SHOWERS EAST COAST, WITH SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR TODAY AND MONDAY, CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH H5 TEMPS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS ARE LESS
THAN FAVORABLE. INTO TUESDAY, POPS DROP MARKEDLY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL PATTERN, UNTIL A H5 LOW APPROACHES THE RIDGE IN THE
ATLANTIC, AND A TROUGH CONFRONTS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
INTO FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, EASTERLY WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH
THE MIDLEVELS, ALLOWING FOR MORE NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS PERHAPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PARKING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE STRONGEST TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  79  88  78 /  20  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  87  79 /  30  40  40  20
MIAMI            89  78  87  78 /  30  40  30  20
NAPLES           92  74  92  72 /  50  20  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 240720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...

EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE STRENGTH OF THE EASTERLY WINDS
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ELICIT A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
THE MID AND UPPER RIDGE WILL CLOSE OFF THROUGH H5 AND H3. THE
RESULTING SUBSIDENCE WILL GENERATE A LARGE AREA OF MUCH DRIER AIR
ALOFT OVER FLORIDA. THUS, MODEL SOUNDINGS CUT PWATS SIGNIFICANTLY
BY TUESDAY AND PERHAPS CLOSE TO 1" BY THURSDAY. BEFORE THEN,
MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT THROUGH THE COLUMN TO SUPPORT TYPICAL
MORNING AND LATE NIGHT SHOWERS EAST COAST, WITH SHOWERS AND SOME
STORMS INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. FOR TODAY AND MONDAY, CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER
STORMS ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH H5 TEMPS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER BOTH OF THESE PARAMETERS ARE LESS
THAN FAVORABLE. INTO TUESDAY, POPS DROP MARKEDLY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO
THE OVERALL PATTERN, UNTIL A H5 LOW APPROACHES THE RIDGE IN THE
ATLANTIC, AND A TROUGH CONFRONTS THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE
INTO FRIDAY. AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN, EASTERLY WINDS
WILL WEAKEN AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THROUGH
THE MIDLEVELS, ALLOWING FOR MORE NUMEROUS/WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
STORMS PERHAPS BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
PARKING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE STRONGEST TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, POSSIBLY SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST. THE PATTERN BREAKS DOWN LATE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  79  88  78 /  20  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  87  79 /  30  40  40  20
MIAMI            89  78  87  78 /  30  40  30  20
NAPLES           92  74  92  72 /  50  20  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 240547 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES...AS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 28
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN DECREASE DOWN TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT KAPF TAF
SITE. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES TODAY BEFORE SOME SHOWERS RETURN THIS EVENING. FOR KAPF TAF
SITE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING BEFORE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE PUT VCTS IN FOR KAPF
TAF SITE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN
IN THE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT WHEN SHOWERS
PASS BY OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER
THE KAPF TAF SITE WHERE IT COULD FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE DURATION OF THE MVFR VIS AND CEILING SHOULD BE LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES. SO AT THIS TIME NO TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE TAF
SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED AS PREDICTED WITH MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NOW LEFT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PICKS UP A
BIT. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. MAIN CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
FLOW ALONG EAST COAST WITH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BECOMING HIGH.
ALSO, PATCHY FOG MIXING WITH SMOKE FROM INLAND FIRES ALONG
ALLIGATOR ALLEY IN INLAND COLLIER COULD RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT SO AMENDED HWO TO REFLECT POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL COULD IMPACT KAPF AND KPBI THROUGH ABOUT
3Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY FORECAST MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR CONSISTENCY`S SAKE...ELECTED TO KEEP VCSH IN
FORECAST FOR MOST EAST COAST TERMS BEGINNING AT 15Z...ALTHOUGH
POPS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS HIGH ONLY
IN NAPLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN TAFS AS VCSH.
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT...THUS SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL APPROACH 20 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EAST COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM DRYING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL/STREAMER SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. PWATS WILL REMAIN 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...AND HIRES
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHOUT TOO MUCH FANFARE.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRIEST LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING TO 1-1.4 INCHES AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE
GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY UNDERWAY AS LARGE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET STRETCHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
IT BREAKS DOWN AND GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...
THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER SUNDAY, THEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  87  78  88 /  30  30  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  79  87 /  30  30  10  10
MIAMI            78  90  78  88 /  30  30  10  10
NAPLES           73  92  73  92 /  20  60  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 240547 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY TODAY INTO THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES...AS THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM AROUND 10
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 28
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL THEN DECREASE DOWN TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS EVENING...EXCEPT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT KAPF TAF
SITE. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES TODAY BEFORE SOME SHOWERS RETURN THIS EVENING. FOR KAPF TAF
SITE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING BEFORE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE PUT VCTS IN FOR KAPF
TAF SITE FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN
IN THE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT WHEN SHOWERS
PASS BY OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AND THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER
THE KAPF TAF SITE WHERE IT COULD FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...THE DURATION OF THE MVFR VIS AND CEILING SHOULD BE LESS
THAN 30 MINUTES. SO AT THIS TIME NO TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE TAF
SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 936 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED AS PREDICTED WITH MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NOW LEFT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PICKS UP A
BIT. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. MAIN CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
FLOW ALONG EAST COAST WITH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BECOMING HIGH.
ALSO, PATCHY FOG MIXING WITH SMOKE FROM INLAND FIRES ALONG
ALLIGATOR ALLEY IN INLAND COLLIER COULD RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT SO AMENDED HWO TO REFLECT POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL COULD IMPACT KAPF AND KPBI THROUGH ABOUT
3Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY FORECAST MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR CONSISTENCY`S SAKE...ELECTED TO KEEP VCSH IN
FORECAST FOR MOST EAST COAST TERMS BEGINNING AT 15Z...ALTHOUGH
POPS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS HIGH ONLY
IN NAPLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN TAFS AS VCSH.
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT...THUS SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL APPROACH 20 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EAST COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM DRYING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL/STREAMER SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. PWATS WILL REMAIN 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...AND HIRES
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHOUT TOO MUCH FANFARE.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRIEST LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING TO 1-1.4 INCHES AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE
GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY UNDERWAY AS LARGE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET STRETCHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
IT BREAKS DOWN AND GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...
THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER SUNDAY, THEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  87  78  88 /  30  30  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  79  87 /  30  30  10  10
MIAMI            78  90  78  88 /  30  30  10  10
NAPLES           73  92  73  92 /  20  60  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 240136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
936 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED AS PREDICTED WITH MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NOW LEFT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PICKS UP A
BIT. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. MAIN CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
FLOW ALONG EAST COAST WITH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BECOMING HIGH.
ALSO, PATCHY FOG MIXING WITH SMOKE FROM INLAND FIRES ALONG
ALLIGATOR ALLEY IN INLAND COLLIER COULD RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT SO AMENDED HWO TO REFLECT POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL COULD IMPACT KAPF AND KPBI THROUGH ABOUT
3Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY FORECAST MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR CONSISTENCY`S SAKE...ELECTED TO KEEP VCSH IN
FORECAST FOR MOST EAST COAST TERMS BEGINNING AT 15Z...ALTHOUGH
POPS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS HIGH ONLY
IN NAPLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN TAFS AS VCSH.
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT...THUS SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL APPROACH 20 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EAST COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM DRYING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL/STREAMER SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. PWATS WILL REMAIN 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...AND HIRES
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHOUT TOO MUCH FANFARE.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRIEST LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING TO 1-1.4 INCHES AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE
GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY UNDERWAY AS LARGE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET STRETCHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
IT BREAKS DOWN AND GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...
THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER SUNDAY, THEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  86  78  87 /  20  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  87 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            78  88  78  90 /  20  30  30  30
NAPLES           73  92  73  92 /  10  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 240136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
936 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED AS PREDICTED WITH MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NOW LEFT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PICKS UP A
BIT. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. MAIN CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
FLOW ALONG EAST COAST WITH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BECOMING HIGH.
ALSO, PATCHY FOG MIXING WITH SMOKE FROM INLAND FIRES ALONG
ALLIGATOR ALLEY IN INLAND COLLIER COULD RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT SO AMENDED HWO TO REFLECT POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL COULD IMPACT KAPF AND KPBI THROUGH ABOUT
3Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY FORECAST MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR CONSISTENCY`S SAKE...ELECTED TO KEEP VCSH IN
FORECAST FOR MOST EAST COAST TERMS BEGINNING AT 15Z...ALTHOUGH
POPS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS HIGH ONLY
IN NAPLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN TAFS AS VCSH.
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT...THUS SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL APPROACH 20 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EAST COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM DRYING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL/STREAMER SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. PWATS WILL REMAIN 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...AND HIRES
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHOUT TOO MUCH FANFARE.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRIEST LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING TO 1-1.4 INCHES AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE
GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY UNDERWAY AS LARGE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET STRETCHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
IT BREAKS DOWN AND GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...
THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER SUNDAY, THEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  86  78  87 /  20  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  87 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            78  88  78  90 /  20  30  30  30
NAPLES           73  92  73  92 /  10  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....52/PS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 240136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
936 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED AS PREDICTED WITH MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NOW LEFT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PICKS UP A
BIT. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. MAIN CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
FLOW ALONG EAST COAST WITH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BECOMING HIGH.
ALSO, PATCHY FOG MIXING WITH SMOKE FROM INLAND FIRES ALONG
ALLIGATOR ALLEY IN INLAND COLLIER COULD RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT SO AMENDED HWO TO REFLECT POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL COULD IMPACT KAPF AND KPBI THROUGH ABOUT
3Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY FORECAST MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR CONSISTENCY`S SAKE...ELECTED TO KEEP VCSH IN
FORECAST FOR MOST EAST COAST TERMS BEGINNING AT 15Z...ALTHOUGH
POPS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS HIGH ONLY
IN NAPLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN TAFS AS VCSH.
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT...THUS SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL APPROACH 20 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EAST COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM DRYING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL/STREAMER SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. PWATS WILL REMAIN 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...AND HIRES
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHOUT TOO MUCH FANFARE.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRIEST LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING TO 1-1.4 INCHES AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE
GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY UNDERWAY AS LARGE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET STRETCHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
IT BREAKS DOWN AND GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...
THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER SUNDAY, THEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  86  78  87 /  20  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  87 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            78  88  78  90 /  20  30  30  30
NAPLES           73  92  73  92 /  10  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....52/PS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 240136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
936 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED AS PREDICTED WITH MAINLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS NOW LEFT FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE GULF AS LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW PICKS UP A
BIT. UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS AND THE SHORT TERM
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. MAIN CONCERNS OVERNIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
FLOW ALONG EAST COAST WITH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BECOMING HIGH.
ALSO, PATCHY FOG MIXING WITH SMOKE FROM INLAND FIRES ALONG
ALLIGATOR ALLEY IN INLAND COLLIER COULD RESULT IN POOR VISIBILITIES
OVERNIGHT SO AMENDED HWO TO REFLECT POTENTIAL ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL COULD IMPACT KAPF AND KPBI THROUGH ABOUT
3Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY FORECAST MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR CONSISTENCY`S SAKE...ELECTED TO KEEP VCSH IN
FORECAST FOR MOST EAST COAST TERMS BEGINNING AT 15Z...ALTHOUGH
POPS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS HIGH ONLY
IN NAPLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN TAFS AS VCSH.
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT...THUS SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL APPROACH 20 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EAST COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM DRYING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL/STREAMER SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. PWATS WILL REMAIN 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...AND HIRES
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHOUT TOO MUCH FANFARE.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRIEST LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING TO 1-1.4 INCHES AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE
GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY UNDERWAY AS LARGE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET STRETCHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
IT BREAKS DOWN AND GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...
THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER SUNDAY, THEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  86  78  87 /  20  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  87 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            78  88  78  90 /  20  30  30  30
NAPLES           73  92  73  92 /  10  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 232351
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL COULD IMPACT KAPF AND KPBI THROUGH ABOUT
3Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY FORECAST MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR CONSISTENCY`S SAKE...ELECTED TO KEEP VCSH IN
FORECAST FOR MOST EAST COAST TERMS BEGINNING AT 15Z...ALTHOUGH
POPS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS HIGH ONLY
IN NAPLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN TAFS AS VCSH.
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT...THUS SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL APPROACH 20 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EAST COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM DRYING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL/STREAMER SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. PWATS WILL REMAIN 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...AND HIRES
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHOUT TOO MUCH FANFARE.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRIEST LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING TO 1-1.4 INCHES AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE
GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY UNDERWAY AS LARGE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET STRETCHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
IT BREAKS DOWN AND GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...
THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER SUNDAY, THEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  86  78  87 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  87 /  10  30  30  30
MIAMI            78  88  78  90 /  10  30  30  30
NAPLES           73  92  73  92 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 232351
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL COULD IMPACT KAPF AND KPBI THROUGH ABOUT
3Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY FORECAST MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR CONSISTENCY`S SAKE...ELECTED TO KEEP VCSH IN
FORECAST FOR MOST EAST COAST TERMS BEGINNING AT 15Z...ALTHOUGH
POPS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS HIGH ONLY
IN NAPLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN TAFS AS VCSH.
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT...THUS SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL APPROACH 20 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EAST COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM DRYING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL/STREAMER SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. PWATS WILL REMAIN 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...AND HIRES
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHOUT TOO MUCH FANFARE.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRIEST LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING TO 1-1.4 INCHES AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE
GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY UNDERWAY AS LARGE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET STRETCHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
IT BREAKS DOWN AND GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...
THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER SUNDAY, THEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  86  78  87 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  87 /  10  30  30  30
MIAMI            78  88  78  90 /  10  30  30  30
NAPLES           73  92  73  92 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 232351
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL COULD IMPACT KAPF AND KPBI THROUGH ABOUT
3Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY FORECAST MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR CONSISTENCY`S SAKE...ELECTED TO KEEP VCSH IN
FORECAST FOR MOST EAST COAST TERMS BEGINNING AT 15Z...ALTHOUGH
POPS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS HIGH ONLY
IN NAPLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN TAFS AS VCSH.
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT...THUS SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL APPROACH 20 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EAST COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM DRYING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL/STREAMER SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. PWATS WILL REMAIN 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...AND HIRES
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHOUT TOO MUCH FANFARE.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRIEST LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING TO 1-1.4 INCHES AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE
GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY UNDERWAY AS LARGE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET STRETCHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
IT BREAKS DOWN AND GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...
THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER SUNDAY, THEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  86  78  87 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  87 /  10  30  30  30
MIAMI            78  88  78  90 /  10  30  30  30
NAPLES           73  92  73  92 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 232351
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY STILL COULD IMPACT KAPF AND KPBI THROUGH ABOUT
3Z. VFR CONDITIONS AND DRY FORECAST MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. FOR CONSISTENCY`S SAKE...ELECTED TO KEEP VCSH IN
FORECAST FOR MOST EAST COAST TERMS BEGINNING AT 15Z...ALTHOUGH
POPS ONLY AROUND 30 PERCENT. CONFIDENCE IN SHOWERS/TSTMS HIGH ONLY
IN NAPLES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CURRENTLY REFLECTED IN TAFS AS VCSH.
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES OVERNIGHT...THUS SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS
OVERNIGHT WILL APPROACH 20 KTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...
STORMS SHOULD WIND DOWN AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS
EVENING...WITH MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EAST COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM DRYING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL/STREAMER SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. PWATS WILL REMAIN 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...AND HIRES
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHOUT TOO MUCH FANFARE.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRIEST LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING TO 1-1.4 INCHES AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE
GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY UNDERWAY AS LARGE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET STRETCHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
IT BREAKS DOWN AND GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.

MARINE...
THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER SUNDAY, THEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  86  78  87 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  87 /  10  30  30  30
MIAMI            78  88  78  90 /  10  30  30  30
NAPLES           73  92  73  92 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 231857
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
257 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. A WEAK SEA BREEZE HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS THINKING MATCHES UP WELL WITH
THE LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS NUMEROUS STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
NAPLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STORMS SHOULD
WIND DOWN AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EAST COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM DRYING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL/STREAMER SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. PWATS WILL REMAIN 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...AND HIRES
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHOUT TOO MUCH FANFARE.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRIEST LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING TO 1-1.4 INCHES AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE
GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY UNDERWAY AS LARGE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET STRETCHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
IT BREAKS DOWN AND GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON-SCHEDULE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA, MAINLY FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTH AND WEST OVER
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. EASTERLY FLOW IN LOW/MID LEVELS WILL FOCUS
THESE STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. KAPF THE ONLY TERMINAL EXPECTED
TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND
SHIFTING/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z. EAST COAST TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY/VFR WITH CIRRUS CANOPY FROM INLAND STORMS
SPREADING EASTWARD. EAST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED EAST
COAST SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. EAST FLOW STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY WITH LIKELY HIGHER COVERAGE
OF EAST COAST SHOWERS AFTER 12Z. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER SUNDAY, THEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  86  78  87 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  87 /  10  30  30  30
MIAMI            78  88  78  90 /  10  30  30  30
NAPLES           73  92  73  92 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...59/RM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231857
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
257 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
TOWARDS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MAINLY QUIET
CONDITIONS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. A WEAK SEA BREEZE HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE GULF COAST...AND MORE NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED THERE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS THINKING MATCHES UP WELL WITH
THE LATEST HRRR WHICH HAS NUMEROUS STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF
NAPLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STORMS SHOULD
WIND DOWN AND MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY...STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC EAST NORTHEAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE REGION...BUT ESPECIALLY FOR
THE EAST COAST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE. LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SETTLE JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...AND SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
LEAD TO PROGRESSIVE UPSTREAM DRYING. SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE
ATLANTIC...SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COASTAL/STREAMER SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST...MAINLY IN THE OVERNIGHT AND
MORNING HOURS. PWATS WILL REMAIN 1.5-1.7 INCHES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST AND GULF COAST THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...AND HIRES
MODELS ARE HINTING AT A WEAK SEA BREEZE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF
COAST DEVELOPING EACH AFTERNOON. WITH THE BRISK EASTERLY
FLOW...EXPECT SHOWERS/STORMS TO QUICKLY MOVE WEST INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO WITHOUT TOO MUCH FANFARE.

TUESDAY...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DRIEST LOW/MID LEVEL
AIR FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...WITH PWATS FALLING TO 1-1.4 INCHES AREAWIDE. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EAST AND A FEW SHOWERS FOR THE
GULF COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH A MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW...AND HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
CONTINUING.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SQUEEZE PLAY UNDERWAY AS LARGE CUTOFF
UPPER LOW DRIFTS WEST NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND AN UPPER TROUGH TRIES TO PUSH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO GET STRETCHED ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN
IT BREAKS DOWN AND GETS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF THE UPPER LOW...WITH MINIMAL RAIN CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON-SCHEDULE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA, MAINLY FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTH AND WEST OVER
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. EASTERLY FLOW IN LOW/MID LEVELS WILL FOCUS
THESE STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. KAPF THE ONLY TERMINAL EXPECTED
TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND
SHIFTING/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z. EAST COAST TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY/VFR WITH CIRRUS CANOPY FROM INLAND STORMS
SPREADING EASTWARD. EAST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED EAST
COAST SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. EAST FLOW STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY WITH LIKELY HIGHER COVERAGE
OF EAST COAST SHOWERS AFTER 12Z. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER SUNDAY, THEN SUSTAINED NEAR 20 KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST
COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  86  78  87 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  87 /  10  30  30  30
MIAMI            78  88  78  90 /  10  30  30  30
NAPLES           73  92  73  92 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...59/RM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 231709
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
109 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON-SCHEDULE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA, MAINLY FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTH AND WEST OVER
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. EASTERLY FLOW IN LOW/MID LEVELS WILL FOCUS
THESE STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. KAPF THE ONLY TERMINAL EXPECTED
TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND
SHIFTING/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z. EAST COAST TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY/VFR WITH CIRRUS CANOPY FROM INLAND STORMS
SPREADING EASTWARD. EAST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED EAST
COAST SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. EAST FLOW STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY WITH LIKELY HIGHER COVERAGE
OF EAST COAST SHOWERS AFTER 12Z. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  87  79  88 /  30  30  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  87 /  30  30  30  30
MIAMI            77  88  78  87 /  20  30  30  30
NAPLES           73  93  72  92 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 231709
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
109 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON-SCHEDULE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA, MAINLY FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTH AND WEST OVER
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. EASTERLY FLOW IN LOW/MID LEVELS WILL FOCUS
THESE STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. KAPF THE ONLY TERMINAL EXPECTED
TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND
SHIFTING/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z. EAST COAST TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY/VFR WITH CIRRUS CANOPY FROM INLAND STORMS
SPREADING EASTWARD. EAST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED EAST
COAST SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. EAST FLOW STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY WITH LIKELY HIGHER COVERAGE
OF EAST COAST SHOWERS AFTER 12Z. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  87  79  88 /  30  30  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  87 /  30  30  30  30
MIAMI            77  88  78  87 /  20  30  30  30
NAPLES           73  93  72  92 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 231709
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
109 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ON-SCHEDULE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA, MAINLY FROM LAKE OKEECHOBEE SOUTH AND WEST OVER
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS. EASTERLY FLOW IN LOW/MID LEVELS WILL FOCUS
THESE STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST THE REMAINDER OF
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH ABOUT 00Z. KAPF THE ONLY TERMINAL EXPECTED
TO BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS WITH PERIODS OF MVFR AND
SHIFTING/GUSTY WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 22Z. EAST COAST TERMINALS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY/VFR WITH CIRRUS CANOPY FROM INLAND STORMS
SPREADING EASTWARD. EAST WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED EAST
COAST SHOWERS POSSIBLE BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
TIME. EAST FLOW STRENGTHENS ON SUNDAY WITH LIKELY HIGHER COVERAGE
OF EAST COAST SHOWERS AFTER 12Z. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  87  79  88 /  30  30  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  79  87 /  30  30  30  30
MIAMI            77  88  78  87 /  20  30  30  30
NAPLES           73  93  72  92 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231323
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
923 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING EAST NORTHEAST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FOCUS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THE 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWED DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SO THE LOWER INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A
LOWER THREAT OF STRONG STORMS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN.

THE FLOW HAS BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVER THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...WITH LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY
AT THE EAST COAST BEACHES BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WERE MOVING TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. A WATERSPOUT WAS ALSO REPORTED ABOUT 16
MILES EAST OF MIAMI BEACH THIS MORNING. WATERSPOUTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE EAST COAST AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL THEN FOCUS ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND A WEAK GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS SHOW THE LAKE
SHADOW ON THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDES OF THE LAKE MAY INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT...SO LOWERED POPS THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NE/E BY 14Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS FLORIDA. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DESPITE HAZY/SMOKY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NARROW
AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM MAY AFFECT FLL/PBI AREAS THIS
MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH VCSH INCLUDED AT THESE TERMINALS.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA AFTER 18Z WITH TEMPO TSRA AND MVFR AT KAPF. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, THIS VERY EARLY MORNING, LEFT OVER FROM WEAK
LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL YESTERDAY, WILL KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE BEACHES OF PALM
BEACH/BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES INTO SUNDAY AND THE RESULTING DEEP EASTERLIES LEAD TO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A POCKET OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WILL BE FORCED INTO THE
EAST COAST ON VEERING H85 AND H7 WIND FLOW LATER TODAY. PWATS MAY
DROP OFF SLIGHTLY BY THIS EVENING. NE TO E WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LATE DAY GULF BREEZE TO PLACE MOST SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. ALTHOUGH H5 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY
AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES DECREASE A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WEST COAST TODAY.

SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND DURING PART OF
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE EASTERLIES REALLY GET UNDERWAY. DOWNRIGHT
BREEZY INTO SUN AFTERNOON WITH SOME 25KT GUSTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS MAY PENETRATE
INLAND. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR, BUT AGAIN MOST STORMS WILL BE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

WITH THE COLD H5 TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY, AND A
DEEP WEST COAST/FOUR CORNERS TROUGH PERSISTING, A MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE FREE REIGN TO GROW AND EXPAND NOT ONLY OVER FLORIDA, BUT
EVENTUALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. WITH THE RIDGE CUTTING
OFF THROUGH H3, LARGE SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY DROP PWATS CLOSE TO 1"
AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS ON THE WEST COAST, POPS WILL BE RATHER LOW
BY MIDWEEK REGION-WIDE.

AS THE H5 RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT INTO
LATE WEEK.

MARINE...

THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLOSE TO 15KTS BY LATE TODAY, THEN
NEAR 20KTS SUSTAINED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  87  79 /  30  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  87  79 /  30  30  30  30
MIAMI            89  77  88  78 /  30  20  30  30
NAPLES           93  73  93  72 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 231323
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
923 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
SURFACE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY
ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THIS MORNING EAST NORTHEAST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY FOCUS NEAR THIS BOUNDARY
LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVE TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THE 12Z
SOUNDING SHOWED DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. SO THE LOWER INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A
LOWER THREAT OF STRONG STORMS COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAIN.

THE FLOW HAS BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST IN THE LOW/MID LEVELS DUE
TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
STATES. THIS FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVER THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...WITH LIFE THREATENING RIP CURRENTS LIKELY
AT THE EAST COAST BEACHES BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND WERE MOVING TOWARDS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. A WATERSPOUT WAS ALSO REPORTED ABOUT 16
MILES EAST OF MIAMI BEACH THIS MORNING. WATERSPOUTS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING...OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE EAST COAST AND ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
STORMS. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS...MAINLY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL THEN FOCUS ACROSS THE GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND A WEAK GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS. THE HRRR AND LOCAL WRF MODELS SHOW THE LAKE
SHADOW ON THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST SIDES OF THE LAKE MAY INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT...SO LOWERED POPS THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NE/E BY 14Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS FLORIDA. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DESPITE HAZY/SMOKY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NARROW
AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM MAY AFFECT FLL/PBI AREAS THIS
MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH VCSH INCLUDED AT THESE TERMINALS.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA AFTER 18Z WITH TEMPO TSRA AND MVFR AT KAPF. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, THIS VERY EARLY MORNING, LEFT OVER FROM WEAK
LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL YESTERDAY, WILL KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE BEACHES OF PALM
BEACH/BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES INTO SUNDAY AND THE RESULTING DEEP EASTERLIES LEAD TO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A POCKET OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WILL BE FORCED INTO THE
EAST COAST ON VEERING H85 AND H7 WIND FLOW LATER TODAY. PWATS MAY
DROP OFF SLIGHTLY BY THIS EVENING. NE TO E WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LATE DAY GULF BREEZE TO PLACE MOST SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. ALTHOUGH H5 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY
AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES DECREASE A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WEST COAST TODAY.

SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND DURING PART OF
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE EASTERLIES REALLY GET UNDERWAY. DOWNRIGHT
BREEZY INTO SUN AFTERNOON WITH SOME 25KT GUSTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS MAY PENETRATE
INLAND. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR, BUT AGAIN MOST STORMS WILL BE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

WITH THE COLD H5 TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY, AND A
DEEP WEST COAST/FOUR CORNERS TROUGH PERSISTING, A MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE FREE REIGN TO GROW AND EXPAND NOT ONLY OVER FLORIDA, BUT
EVENTUALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. WITH THE RIDGE CUTTING
OFF THROUGH H3, LARGE SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY DROP PWATS CLOSE TO 1"
AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS ON THE WEST COAST, POPS WILL BE RATHER LOW
BY MIDWEEK REGION-WIDE.

AS THE H5 RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT INTO
LATE WEEK.

MARINE...

THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLOSE TO 15KTS BY LATE TODAY, THEN
NEAR 20KTS SUSTAINED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  87  79 /  30  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  87  79 /  30  30  30  30
MIAMI            89  77  88  78 /  30  20  30  30
NAPLES           93  73  93  72 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231138
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NE/E BY 14Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS FLORIDA. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DESPITE HAZY/SMOKY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NARROW
AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM MAY AFFECT FLL/PBI AREAS THIS
MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH VCSH INCLUDED AT THESE TERMINALS.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA AFTER 18Z WITH TEMPO TSRA AND MVFR AT KAPF. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, THIS VERY EARLY MORNING, LEFT OVER FROM WEAK
LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL YESTERDAY, WILL KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE BEACHES OF PALM
BEACH/BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES INTO SUNDAY AND THE RESULTING DEEP EASTERLIES LEAD TO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A POCKET OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WILL BE FORCED INTO THE
EAST COAST ON VEERING H85 AND H7 WIND FLOW LATER TODAY. PWATS MAY
DROP OFF SLIGHTLY BY THIS EVENING. NE TO E WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LATE DAY GULF BREEZE TO PLACE MOST SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. ALTHOUGH H5 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY
AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES DECREASE A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WEST COAST TODAY.

SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND DURING PART OF
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE EASTERLIES REALLY GET UNDERWAY. DOWNRIGHT
BREEZY INTO SUN AFTERNOON WITH SOME 25KT GUSTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS MAY PENETRATE
INLAND. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR, BUT AGAIN MOST STORMS WILL BE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

WITH THE COLD H5 TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY, AND A
DEEP WEST COAST/FOUR CORNERS TROUGH PERSISTING, A MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE FREE REIGN TO GROW AND EXPAND NOT ONLY OVER FLORIDA, BUT
EVENTUALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. WITH THE RIDGE CUTTING
OFF THROUGH H3, LARGE SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY DROP PWATS CLOSE TO 1"
AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS ON THE WEST COAST, POPS WILL BE RATHER LOW
BY MIDWEEK REGION-WIDE.

AS THE H5 RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT INTO
LATE WEEK.

MARINE...

THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLOSE TO 15KTS BY LATE TODAY, THEN
NEAR 20KTS SUSTAINED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  87  79 /  20  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  87  79 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            89  77  88  78 /  20  20  30  30
NAPLES           93  73  93  72 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 231138
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NE/E BY 14Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS FLORIDA. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DESPITE HAZY/SMOKY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NARROW
AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM MAY AFFECT FLL/PBI AREAS THIS
MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH VCSH INCLUDED AT THESE TERMINALS.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA AFTER 18Z WITH TEMPO TSRA AND MVFR AT KAPF. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, THIS VERY EARLY MORNING, LEFT OVER FROM WEAK
LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL YESTERDAY, WILL KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE BEACHES OF PALM
BEACH/BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES INTO SUNDAY AND THE RESULTING DEEP EASTERLIES LEAD TO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A POCKET OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WILL BE FORCED INTO THE
EAST COAST ON VEERING H85 AND H7 WIND FLOW LATER TODAY. PWATS MAY
DROP OFF SLIGHTLY BY THIS EVENING. NE TO E WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LATE DAY GULF BREEZE TO PLACE MOST SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. ALTHOUGH H5 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY
AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES DECREASE A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WEST COAST TODAY.

SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND DURING PART OF
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE EASTERLIES REALLY GET UNDERWAY. DOWNRIGHT
BREEZY INTO SUN AFTERNOON WITH SOME 25KT GUSTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS MAY PENETRATE
INLAND. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR, BUT AGAIN MOST STORMS WILL BE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

WITH THE COLD H5 TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY, AND A
DEEP WEST COAST/FOUR CORNERS TROUGH PERSISTING, A MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE FREE REIGN TO GROW AND EXPAND NOT ONLY OVER FLORIDA, BUT
EVENTUALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. WITH THE RIDGE CUTTING
OFF THROUGH H3, LARGE SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY DROP PWATS CLOSE TO 1"
AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS ON THE WEST COAST, POPS WILL BE RATHER LOW
BY MIDWEEK REGION-WIDE.

AS THE H5 RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT INTO
LATE WEEK.

MARINE...

THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLOSE TO 15KTS BY LATE TODAY, THEN
NEAR 20KTS SUSTAINED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  87  79 /  20  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  87  79 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            89  77  88  78 /  20  20  30  30
NAPLES           93  73  93  72 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231138
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NE/E BY 14Z AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS FLORIDA. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL DESPITE HAZY/SMOKY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NARROW
AREA OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A TSTM MAY AFFECT FLL/PBI AREAS THIS
MORNING THROUGH ABOUT 18Z WITH VCSH INCLUDED AT THESE TERMINALS.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL SHIFT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA AFTER 18Z WITH TEMPO TSRA AND MVFR AT KAPF. MOST OF THE
SHOWERS/TSTMS SHOULD WIND DOWN BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 00Z WITH MOSTLY
VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015/

DISCUSSION...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, THIS VERY EARLY MORNING, LEFT OVER FROM WEAK
LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL YESTERDAY, WILL KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE BEACHES OF PALM
BEACH/BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES INTO SUNDAY AND THE RESULTING DEEP EASTERLIES LEAD TO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A POCKET OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WILL BE FORCED INTO THE
EAST COAST ON VEERING H85 AND H7 WIND FLOW LATER TODAY. PWATS MAY
DROP OFF SLIGHTLY BY THIS EVENING. NE TO E WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LATE DAY GULF BREEZE TO PLACE MOST SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. ALTHOUGH H5 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY
AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES DECREASE A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WEST COAST TODAY.

SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND DURING PART OF
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE EASTERLIES REALLY GET UNDERWAY. DOWNRIGHT
BREEZY INTO SUN AFTERNOON WITH SOME 25KT GUSTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS MAY PENETRATE
INLAND. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR, BUT AGAIN MOST STORMS WILL BE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

WITH THE COLD H5 TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY, AND A
DEEP WEST COAST/FOUR CORNERS TROUGH PERSISTING, A MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE FREE REIGN TO GROW AND EXPAND NOT ONLY OVER FLORIDA, BUT
EVENTUALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. WITH THE RIDGE CUTTING
OFF THROUGH H3, LARGE SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY DROP PWATS CLOSE TO 1"
AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS ON THE WEST COAST, POPS WILL BE RATHER LOW
BY MIDWEEK REGION-WIDE.

AS THE H5 RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT INTO
LATE WEEK.

MARINE...

THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLOSE TO 15KTS BY LATE TODAY, THEN
NEAR 20KTS SUSTAINED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  87  79 /  20  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  87  79 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            89  77  88  78 /  20  20  30  30
NAPLES           93  73  93  72 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 230742
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
342 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, THIS VERY EARLY MORNING, LEFT OVER FROM WEAK
LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL YESTERDAY, WILL KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE BEACHES OF PALM
BEACH/BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES INTO SUNDAY AND THE RESULTING DEEP EASTERLIES LEAD TO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A POCKET OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WILL BE FORCED INTO THE
EAST COAST ON VEERING H85 AND H7 WIND FLOW LATER TODAY. PWATS MAY
DROP OFF SLIGHTLY BY THIS EVENING. NE TO E WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LATE DAY GULF BREEZE TO PLACE MOST SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. ALTHOUGH H5 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY
AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES DECREASE A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WEST COAST TODAY.

SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND DURING PART OF
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE EASTERLIES REALLY GET UNDERWAY. DOWNRIGHT
BREEZY INTO SUN AFTERNOON WITH SOME 25KT GUSTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS MAY PENETRATE
INLAND. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR, BUT AGAIN MOST STORMS WILL BE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

WITH THE COLD H5 TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY, AND A
DEEP WEST COAST/FOUR CORNERS TROUGH PERSISTING, A MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE FREE REIGN TO GROW AND EXPAND NOT ONLY OVER FLORIDA, BUT
EVENTUALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. WITH THE RIDGE CUTTING
OFF THROUGH H3, LARGE SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY DROP PWATS CLOSE TO 1"
AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS ON THE WEST COAST, POPS WILL BE RATHER LOW
BY MIDWEEK REGIONWIDE.

AS THE H5 RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT INTO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLOSE TO 15KTS BY LATE TODAY, THEN
NEAR 20KTS SUSTAINED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  87  79 /  20  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  87  79 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            89  77  88  78 /  20  20  30  30
NAPLES           93  73  93  72 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 230742
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
342 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, THIS VERY EARLY MORNING, LEFT OVER FROM WEAK
LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL YESTERDAY, WILL KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE BEACHES OF PALM
BEACH/BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES INTO SUNDAY AND THE RESULTING DEEP EASTERLIES LEAD TO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A POCKET OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WILL BE FORCED INTO THE
EAST COAST ON VEERING H85 AND H7 WIND FLOW LATER TODAY. PWATS MAY
DROP OFF SLIGHTLY BY THIS EVENING. NE TO E WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LATE DAY GULF BREEZE TO PLACE MOST SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. ALTHOUGH H5 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY
AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES DECREASE A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WEST COAST TODAY.

SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND DURING PART OF
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE EASTERLIES REALLY GET UNDERWAY. DOWNRIGHT
BREEZY INTO SUN AFTERNOON WITH SOME 25KT GUSTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS MAY PENETRATE
INLAND. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR, BUT AGAIN MOST STORMS WILL BE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

WITH THE COLD H5 TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY, AND A
DEEP WEST COAST/FOUR CORNERS TROUGH PERSISTING, A MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE FREE REIGN TO GROW AND EXPAND NOT ONLY OVER FLORIDA, BUT
EVENTUALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. WITH THE RIDGE CUTTING
OFF THROUGH H3, LARGE SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY DROP PWATS CLOSE TO 1"
AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS ON THE WEST COAST, POPS WILL BE RATHER LOW
BY MIDWEEK REGIONWIDE.

AS THE H5 RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT INTO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLOSE TO 15KTS BY LATE TODAY, THEN
NEAR 20KTS SUSTAINED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  87  79 /  20  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  87  79 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            89  77  88  78 /  20  20  30  30
NAPLES           93  73  93  72 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 230742
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
342 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, THIS VERY EARLY MORNING, LEFT OVER FROM WEAK
LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL YESTERDAY, WILL KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE BEACHES OF PALM
BEACH/BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES INTO SUNDAY AND THE RESULTING DEEP EASTERLIES LEAD TO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A POCKET OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WILL BE FORCED INTO THE
EAST COAST ON VEERING H85 AND H7 WIND FLOW LATER TODAY. PWATS MAY
DROP OFF SLIGHTLY BY THIS EVENING. NE TO E WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LATE DAY GULF BREEZE TO PLACE MOST SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. ALTHOUGH H5 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY
AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES DECREASE A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WEST COAST TODAY.

SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND DURING PART OF
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE EASTERLIES REALLY GET UNDERWAY. DOWNRIGHT
BREEZY INTO SUN AFTERNOON WITH SOME 25KT GUSTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS MAY PENETRATE
INLAND. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR, BUT AGAIN MOST STORMS WILL BE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

WITH THE COLD H5 TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY, AND A
DEEP WEST COAST/FOUR CORNERS TROUGH PERSISTING, A MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE FREE REIGN TO GROW AND EXPAND NOT ONLY OVER FLORIDA, BUT
EVENTUALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. WITH THE RIDGE CUTTING
OFF THROUGH H3, LARGE SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY DROP PWATS CLOSE TO 1"
AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS ON THE WEST COAST, POPS WILL BE RATHER LOW
BY MIDWEEK REGIONWIDE.

AS THE H5 RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT INTO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLOSE TO 15KTS BY LATE TODAY, THEN
NEAR 20KTS SUSTAINED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  87  79 /  20  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  87  79 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            89  77  88  78 /  20  20  30  30
NAPLES           93  73  93  72 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 230742
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
342 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH, THIS VERY EARLY MORNING, LEFT OVER FROM WEAK
LOW PRESSURE/STATIONARY FRONT OVER CENTRAL FL YESTERDAY, WILL KICK
OFF A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS OFFSHORE AND NEAR THE BEACHES OF PALM
BEACH/BROWARD/MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. AS STRONG SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES INTO SUNDAY AND THE RESULTING DEEP EASTERLIES LEAD TO A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A POCKET OF
DRIER AIR ALOFT COMPARED TO YESTERDAY, WILL BE FORCED INTO THE
EAST COAST ON VEERING H85 AND H7 WIND FLOW LATER TODAY. PWATS MAY
DROP OFF SLIGHTLY BY THIS EVENING. NE TO E WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH
A LATE DAY GULF BREEZE TO PLACE MOST SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. ALTHOUGH H5 TEMPS WARM SLIGHTLY
AND H7-H5 LAPSE RATES DECREASE A LITTLE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS WEST COAST TODAY.

SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND DURING PART OF
SUNDAY MORNING AS THE EASTERLIES REALLY GET UNDERWAY. DOWNRIGHT
BREEZY INTO SUN AFTERNOON WITH SOME 25KT GUSTS ALONG THE EAST
COAST POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS MAY PENETRATE
INLAND. MONDAY LOOKS SIMILAR, BUT AGAIN MOST STORMS WILL BE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

WITH THE COLD H5 TROUGH LIFTING FROM THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY, AND A
DEEP WEST COAST/FOUR CORNERS TROUGH PERSISTING, A MID LEVEL RIDGE
WILL HAVE FREE REIGN TO GROW AND EXPAND NOT ONLY OVER FLORIDA, BUT
EVENTUALLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS COAST. WITH THE RIDGE CUTTING
OFF THROUGH H3, LARGE SUBSIDENCE WILL LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF DRIER MIDLEVEL AIR ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MODEL SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY DROP PWATS CLOSE TO 1"
AT TIMES ALONG THE EAST COAST. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL REMAIN
OPPORTUNITIES FOR STORMS ON THE WEST COAST, POPS WILL BE RATHER LOW
BY MIDWEEK REGIONWIDE.

AS THE H5 RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH EVENTUALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND
PERSISTENT MODERATE EASTERLIES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN A BIT INTO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

THE GRADIENT INCREASES AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. WINDS BECOME INCREASINGLY EASTERLY AND
STRONGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND, CLOSE TO 15KTS BY LATE TODAY, THEN
NEAR 20KTS SUSTAINED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY, ELSE 15-20 KTS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE FORECAST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  78  87  79 /  20  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  87  79 /  20  30  30  30
MIAMI            89  77  88  78 /  20  20  30  30
NAPLES           93  73  93  72 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 230536 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND. THEREFORE...VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED TO KPBI TAF SITE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE WEATHER WILL THEN REMAIN DRY
FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR TODAY. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING BEFORE THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 20Z.
THEREFORE...VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED FOR KAPF TAF SITE FROM 23/20Z
UNTIL 24/00Z. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KAPF TAF
SITE WHERE IT COULD DROP DOWN INTO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM PASSAGE MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA HAVE DISSIPATED
BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE FORECAST LEAVES IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL INTERACTING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
PENINSULA. OVER NIGHT A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED. EXCEPT FOR THE
CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&
60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...

THE VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SHORT TERM WIND FORECAST
IS UNCERTAIN BUT WESTERLY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO THEN BECOMING VARIABLE. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

&&
60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
SOUNDS INNOCENT? BUT IT IS NOT. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. GIVEN THE CROWDS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...EFFECTIVE FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF NICER BEACH WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE SURF BECOMES LIFE-THREATENING. WE ENCOURAGE OUR
PARTNERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK AS WELL AS SAFETY MESSAGES -- IF
YOU SWIM, ALWAYS SWIM IN FRONT OF A LIFEGUARD. HERE`S HOPING WE
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AT OUR BEACHES!

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE DECREASES SUN-MON...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLYBY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (PER A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS) AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO FLORIDA AROUND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

THREAT FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TEMPS/HUMIDITY GET TAPPED DOWN A TAD DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THAT DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ON A REFRESHING
BREEZE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S TUE-THU...LIKELY THE LAST "FRESH" GASP BEFORE THE SUMMER
SAUNA SETS IN! /GREGORIA

MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND BE ON THE
INCREASE...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY SUN-MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  87  78  87 /  20  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  78  87 /  20  30  30  20
MIAMI            77  87  77  87 /  20  30  30  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  91 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 230536 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND. THEREFORE...VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED TO KPBI TAF SITE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE WEATHER WILL THEN REMAIN DRY
FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR TODAY. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING BEFORE THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 20Z.
THEREFORE...VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED FOR KAPF TAF SITE FROM 23/20Z
UNTIL 24/00Z. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KAPF TAF
SITE WHERE IT COULD DROP DOWN INTO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM PASSAGE MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA HAVE DISSIPATED
BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE FORECAST LEAVES IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL INTERACTING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
PENINSULA. OVER NIGHT A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED. EXCEPT FOR THE
CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&
60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...

THE VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SHORT TERM WIND FORECAST
IS UNCERTAIN BUT WESTERLY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO THEN BECOMING VARIABLE. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

&&
60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
SOUNDS INNOCENT? BUT IT IS NOT. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. GIVEN THE CROWDS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...EFFECTIVE FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF NICER BEACH WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE SURF BECOMES LIFE-THREATENING. WE ENCOURAGE OUR
PARTNERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK AS WELL AS SAFETY MESSAGES -- IF
YOU SWIM, ALWAYS SWIM IN FRONT OF A LIFEGUARD. HERE`S HOPING WE
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AT OUR BEACHES!

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE DECREASES SUN-MON...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLYBY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (PER A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS) AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO FLORIDA AROUND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

THREAT FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TEMPS/HUMIDITY GET TAPPED DOWN A TAD DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THAT DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ON A REFRESHING
BREEZE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S TUE-THU...LIKELY THE LAST "FRESH" GASP BEFORE THE SUMMER
SAUNA SETS IN! /GREGORIA

MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND BE ON THE
INCREASE...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY SUN-MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  87  78  87 /  20  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  78  87 /  20  30  30  20
MIAMI            77  87  77  87 /  20  30  30  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  91 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 230536 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND. THEREFORE...VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED TO KPBI TAF SITE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE WEATHER WILL THEN REMAIN DRY
FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR TODAY. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING BEFORE THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 20Z.
THEREFORE...VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED FOR KAPF TAF SITE FROM 23/20Z
UNTIL 24/00Z. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KAPF TAF
SITE WHERE IT COULD DROP DOWN INTO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM PASSAGE MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA HAVE DISSIPATED
BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE FORECAST LEAVES IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL INTERACTING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
PENINSULA. OVER NIGHT A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED. EXCEPT FOR THE
CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&
60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...

THE VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SHORT TERM WIND FORECAST
IS UNCERTAIN BUT WESTERLY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO THEN BECOMING VARIABLE. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

&&
60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
SOUNDS INNOCENT? BUT IT IS NOT. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. GIVEN THE CROWDS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...EFFECTIVE FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF NICER BEACH WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE SURF BECOMES LIFE-THREATENING. WE ENCOURAGE OUR
PARTNERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK AS WELL AS SAFETY MESSAGES -- IF
YOU SWIM, ALWAYS SWIM IN FRONT OF A LIFEGUARD. HERE`S HOPING WE
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AT OUR BEACHES!

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE DECREASES SUN-MON...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLYBY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (PER A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS) AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO FLORIDA AROUND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

THREAT FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TEMPS/HUMIDITY GET TAPPED DOWN A TAD DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THAT DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ON A REFRESHING
BREEZE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S TUE-THU...LIKELY THE LAST "FRESH" GASP BEFORE THE SUMMER
SAUNA SETS IN! /GREGORIA

MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND BE ON THE
INCREASE...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY SUN-MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  87  78  87 /  20  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  78  87 /  20  30  30  20
MIAMI            77  87  77  87 /  20  30  30  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  91 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....57/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 230536 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 14Z AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES
EARLY THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND. THEREFORE...VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED TO KPBI TAF SITE
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE WEATHER WILL THEN REMAIN DRY
FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR TODAY. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING BEFORE THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 20Z.
THEREFORE...VCTS HAS BEEN ADDED FOR KAPF TAF SITE FROM 23/20Z
UNTIL 24/00Z. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KAPF TAF
SITE WHERE IT COULD DROP DOWN INTO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORM PASSAGE MAINLY BETWEEN 20Z AND 00Z.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

UPDATE...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA HAVE DISSIPATED
BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE FORECAST LEAVES IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL INTERACTING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
PENINSULA. OVER NIGHT A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED. EXCEPT FOR THE
CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&
60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...

THE VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SHORT TERM WIND FORECAST
IS UNCERTAIN BUT WESTERLY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO THEN BECOMING VARIABLE. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

&&
60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
SOUNDS INNOCENT? BUT IT IS NOT. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. GIVEN THE CROWDS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...EFFECTIVE FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF NICER BEACH WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE SURF BECOMES LIFE-THREATENING. WE ENCOURAGE OUR
PARTNERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK AS WELL AS SAFETY MESSAGES -- IF
YOU SWIM, ALWAYS SWIM IN FRONT OF A LIFEGUARD. HERE`S HOPING WE
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AT OUR BEACHES!

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE DECREASES SUN-MON...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLYBY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (PER A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS) AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO FLORIDA AROUND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

THREAT FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TEMPS/HUMIDITY GET TAPPED DOWN A TAD DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THAT DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ON A REFRESHING
BREEZE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S TUE-THU...LIKELY THE LAST "FRESH" GASP BEFORE THE SUMMER
SAUNA SETS IN! /GREGORIA

MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND BE ON THE
INCREASE...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY SUN-MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  87  78  87 /  20  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  87  78  87 /  20  30  30  20
MIAMI            77  87  77  87 /  20  30  30  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  91 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....57/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 230004
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
804 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA HAVE DISSIPATED
BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE FORECAST LEAVES IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL INTERACTING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
PENINSULA. OVER NIGHT A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED. EXCEPT FOR THE
CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...

THE VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SHORT TERM WIND FORECAST
IS UNCERTAIN BUT WESTERLY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO THEN BECOMING VARIABLE. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

.LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
SOUNDS INNOCENT? BUT IT IS NOT. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. GIVEN THE CROWDS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...EFFECTIVE FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF NICER BEACH WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE SURF BECOMES LIFE-THREATENING. WE ENCOURAGE OUR
PARTNERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK AS WELL AS SAFETY MESSAGES -- IF
YOU SWIM, ALWAYS SWIM IN FRONT OF A LIFEGUARD. HERE`S HOPING WE
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AT OUR BEACHES!

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE DECREASES SUN-MON...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLYBY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (PER A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS) AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO FLORIDA AROUND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

THREAT FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TEMPS/HUMIDITY GET TAPPED DOWN A TAD DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THAT DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ON A REFRESHING
BREEZE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S TUE-THU...LIKELY THE LAST "FRESH" GASP BEFORE THE SUMMER
SAUNA SETS IN! /GREGORIA

MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND BE ON THE
INCREASE...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY SUN-MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  79  87 /  20  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  30
MIAMI            76  89  77  87 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           74  93  72  93 /  50  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 230004
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
804 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA HAVE DISSIPATED
BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE FORECAST LEAVES IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL INTERACTING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
PENINSULA. OVER NIGHT A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED. EXCEPT FOR THE
CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...

THE VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SHORT TERM WIND FORECAST
IS UNCERTAIN BUT WESTERLY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO THEN BECOMING VARIABLE. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

.LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
SOUNDS INNOCENT? BUT IT IS NOT. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. GIVEN THE CROWDS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...EFFECTIVE FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF NICER BEACH WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE SURF BECOMES LIFE-THREATENING. WE ENCOURAGE OUR
PARTNERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK AS WELL AS SAFETY MESSAGES -- IF
YOU SWIM, ALWAYS SWIM IN FRONT OF A LIFEGUARD. HERE`S HOPING WE
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AT OUR BEACHES!

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE DECREASES SUN-MON...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLYBY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (PER A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS) AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO FLORIDA AROUND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

THREAT FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TEMPS/HUMIDITY GET TAPPED DOWN A TAD DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THAT DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ON A REFRESHING
BREEZE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S TUE-THU...LIKELY THE LAST "FRESH" GASP BEFORE THE SUMMER
SAUNA SETS IN! /GREGORIA

MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND BE ON THE
INCREASE...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY SUN-MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  79  87 /  20  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  30
MIAMI            76  89  77  87 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           74  93  72  93 /  50  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 230004
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
804 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA HAVE DISSIPATED
BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE FORECAST LEAVES IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL INTERACTING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
PENINSULA. OVER NIGHT A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED. EXCEPT FOR THE
CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...

THE VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SHORT TERM WIND FORECAST
IS UNCERTAIN BUT WESTERLY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO THEN BECOMING VARIABLE. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

.LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
SOUNDS INNOCENT? BUT IT IS NOT. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. GIVEN THE CROWDS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...EFFECTIVE FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF NICER BEACH WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE SURF BECOMES LIFE-THREATENING. WE ENCOURAGE OUR
PARTNERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK AS WELL AS SAFETY MESSAGES -- IF
YOU SWIM, ALWAYS SWIM IN FRONT OF A LIFEGUARD. HERE`S HOPING WE
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AT OUR BEACHES!

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE DECREASES SUN-MON...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLYBY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (PER A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS) AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO FLORIDA AROUND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

THREAT FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TEMPS/HUMIDITY GET TAPPED DOWN A TAD DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THAT DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ON A REFRESHING
BREEZE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S TUE-THU...LIKELY THE LAST "FRESH" GASP BEFORE THE SUMMER
SAUNA SETS IN! /GREGORIA

MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND BE ON THE
INCREASE...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY SUN-MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  79  87 /  20  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  30
MIAMI            76  89  77  87 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           74  93  72  93 /  50  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 230004
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
804 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE...

MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA HAVE DISSIPATED
BUT THERE ARE STILL A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE FORECAST LEAVES IN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES STILL INTERACTING
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF A FEW EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS...MOST LIKELY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST
PENINSULA. OVER NIGHT A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED. EXCEPT FOR THE
CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...NO OTHER CHANGES TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...

THE VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SHORT TERM WIND FORECAST
IS UNCERTAIN BUT WESTERLY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO THEN BECOMING VARIABLE. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

.LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
SOUNDS INNOCENT? BUT IT IS NOT. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. GIVEN THE CROWDS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...EFFECTIVE FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF NICER BEACH WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE SURF BECOMES LIFE-THREATENING. WE ENCOURAGE OUR
PARTNERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK AS WELL AS SAFETY MESSAGES -- IF
YOU SWIM, ALWAYS SWIM IN FRONT OF A LIFEGUARD. HERE`S HOPING WE
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AT OUR BEACHES!

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE DECREASES SUN-MON...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLYBY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (PER A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS) AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO FLORIDA AROUND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

THREAT FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TEMPS/HUMIDITY GET TAPPED DOWN A TAD DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THAT DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ON A REFRESHING
BREEZE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S TUE-THU...LIKELY THE LAST "FRESH" GASP BEFORE THE SUMMER
SAUNA SETS IN! /GREGORIA

MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND BE ON THE
INCREASE...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY SUN-MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  79  87 /  20  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  30
MIAMI            76  89  77  87 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           74  93  72  93 /  50  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 222345
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...

THE VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SHORT TERM WIND FORECAST
IS UNCERTAIN BUT WESTERLY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO THEN BECOMING VARIABLE. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

..LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
SOUNDS INNOCENT? BUT IT IS NOT. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. GIVEN THE CROWDS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...EFFECTIVE FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF NICER BEACH WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE SURF BECOMES LIFE-THREATENING. WE ENCOURAGE OUR
PARTNERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK AS WELL AS SAFETY MESSAGES -- IF
YOU SWIM, ALWAYS SWIM IN FRONT OF A LIFEGUARD. HERE`S HOPING WE
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AT OUR BEACHES!

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE DECREASES SUN-MON...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLYBY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (PER A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS) AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO FLORIDA AROUND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

THREAT FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TEMPS/HUMIDITY GET TAPPED DOWN A TAD DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THAT DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ON A REFRESHING
BREEZE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S TUE-THU...LIKELY THE LAST "FRESH" GASP BEFORE THE SUMMER
SAUNA SETS IN! /GREGORIA

MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND BE ON THE
INCREASE...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY SUN-MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  79  87 /  20  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  30
MIAMI            76  89  77  87 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           74  93  72  93 /  50  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 222345
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...

THE VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SHORT TERM WIND FORECAST
IS UNCERTAIN BUT WESTERLY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO THEN BECOMING VARIABLE. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

..LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
SOUNDS INNOCENT? BUT IT IS NOT. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. GIVEN THE CROWDS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...EFFECTIVE FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF NICER BEACH WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE SURF BECOMES LIFE-THREATENING. WE ENCOURAGE OUR
PARTNERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK AS WELL AS SAFETY MESSAGES -- IF
YOU SWIM, ALWAYS SWIM IN FRONT OF A LIFEGUARD. HERE`S HOPING WE
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AT OUR BEACHES!

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE DECREASES SUN-MON...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLYBY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (PER A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS) AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO FLORIDA AROUND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

THREAT FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TEMPS/HUMIDITY GET TAPPED DOWN A TAD DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THAT DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ON A REFRESHING
BREEZE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S TUE-THU...LIKELY THE LAST "FRESH" GASP BEFORE THE SUMMER
SAUNA SETS IN! /GREGORIA

MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND BE ON THE
INCREASE...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY SUN-MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  79  87 /  20  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  30
MIAMI            76  89  77  87 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           74  93  72  93 /  50  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 222345
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...

THE VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA EARLIER THIS
EVENING HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A FEW LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS
JUST WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. WITH MULTIPLE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE PENINSULA...SHORT TERM WIND FORECAST
IS UNCERTAIN BUT WESTERLY WINDS COULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO THEN BECOMING VARIABLE. MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS ON SATURDAY. EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO BUILD BACK INTO THE
REGION BY MID-MORNING SATURDAY.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

..LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
SOUNDS INNOCENT? BUT IT IS NOT. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. GIVEN THE CROWDS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...EFFECTIVE FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF NICER BEACH WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE SURF BECOMES LIFE-THREATENING. WE ENCOURAGE OUR
PARTNERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK AS WELL AS SAFETY MESSAGES -- IF
YOU SWIM, ALWAYS SWIM IN FRONT OF A LIFEGUARD. HERE`S HOPING WE
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AT OUR BEACHES!

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE DECREASES SUN-MON...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLYBY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (PER A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS) AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO FLORIDA AROUND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

THREAT FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TEMPS/HUMIDITY GET TAPPED DOWN A TAD DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THAT DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ON A REFRESHING
BREEZE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S TUE-THU...LIKELY THE LAST "FRESH" GASP BEFORE THE SUMMER
SAUNA SETS IN! /GREGORIA

MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND BE ON THE
INCREASE...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY SUN-MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  79  87 /  20  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  87 /  20  20  20  30
MIAMI            76  89  77  87 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           74  93  72  93 /  50  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221851
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
SOUNDS INNOCENT? BUT IT IS NOT. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. GIVEN THE CROWDS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...EFFECTIVE FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF NICER BEACH WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE SURF BECOMES LIFE-THREATENING. WE ENCOURAGE OUR
PARTNERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK AS WELL AS SAFETY MESSAGES -- IF
YOU SWIM, ALWAYS SWIM IN FRONT OF A LIFEGUARD. HERE`S HOPING WE
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AT OUR BEACHES!

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE DECREASES SUN-MON...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLYBY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (PER A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS) AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO FLORIDA AROUND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

THREAT FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TEMPS/HUMIDITY GET TAPPED DOWN A TAD DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THAT DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ON A REFRESHING
BREEZE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S TUE-THU...LIKELY THE LAST "FRESH" GASP BEFORE THE SUMMER
SAUNA SETS IN! /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND BE ON THE
INCREASE...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY SUN-MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  79  87 /  20  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  87 /  10  20  20  30
MIAMI            76  89  77  87 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           74  93  72  93 /  20  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221851
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
SOUNDS INNOCENT? BUT IT IS NOT. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. GIVEN THE CROWDS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...EFFECTIVE FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF NICER BEACH WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE SURF BECOMES LIFE-THREATENING. WE ENCOURAGE OUR
PARTNERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK AS WELL AS SAFETY MESSAGES -- IF
YOU SWIM, ALWAYS SWIM IN FRONT OF A LIFEGUARD. HERE`S HOPING WE
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AT OUR BEACHES!

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE DECREASES SUN-MON...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLYBY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (PER A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS) AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO FLORIDA AROUND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

THREAT FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TEMPS/HUMIDITY GET TAPPED DOWN A TAD DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THAT DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ON A REFRESHING
BREEZE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S TUE-THU...LIKELY THE LAST "FRESH" GASP BEFORE THE SUMMER
SAUNA SETS IN! /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND BE ON THE
INCREASE...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY SUN-MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  79  87 /  20  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  87 /  10  20  20  30
MIAMI            76  89  77  87 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           74  93  72  93 /  20  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221851
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER ELEMENT HAVING POTENTIALLY THE HIGHEST IMPACT ACROSS
OUR SERVICE AREA THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WILL BE AN EAST WIND.
SOUNDS INNOCENT? BUT IT IS NOT. A STRENGTHENING EASTERLY WIND,
ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY, WILL LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
BEACHES. GIVEN THE CROWDS EXPECTED AT THE BEACHES THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...HAVE ISSUED AN EARLY STATEMENT TO HIGHLIGHT A HIGH RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS...EFFECTIVE FOR THE PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND
MIAMI-DADE BEACHES FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY.

IT WILL BE A DANGEROUS COMBINATION OF NICER BEACH WEATHER WHILE AT
THE SAME TIME THE SURF BECOMES LIFE-THREATENING. WE ENCOURAGE OUR
PARTNERS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS RISK AS WELL AS SAFETY MESSAGES -- IF
YOU SWIM, ALWAYS SWIM IN FRONT OF A LIFEGUARD. HERE`S HOPING WE
HAVE A SAFE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AT OUR BEACHES!

AS FAR AS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND...MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
SATURDAY, THEN MOISTURE DECREASES SUN-MON...AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLYBY
THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK (PER A CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS) AS DRY AIR MOVES INTO FLORIDA AROUND A STRONG HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC. WIND FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY BY TOMORROW...AND
THIS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST
EACH AFTERNOON.

THREAT FOR INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY AGAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE THREATS BEING FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

TEMPS/HUMIDITY GET TAPPED DOWN A TAD DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK AS THAT DRY AIR MOVES IN FROM THE EAST ON A REFRESHING
BREEZE. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS DROPPING BACK INTO THE
60S TUE-THU...LIKELY THE LAST "FRESH" GASP BEFORE THE SUMMER
SAUNA SETS IN! /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY THIS WEEKEND AND BE ON THE
INCREASE...INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE BY SUN-MON. THIS WILL LEAD TO
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH BUILDING SEAS OF 4-5 FT ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  88  79  87 /  20  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  87 /  10  20  20  30
MIAMI            76  89  77  87 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           74  93  72  93 /  20  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 221413
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1013 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...STRONG TSTORM THREAT INTERIOR SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS A CHAOTIC AND LIGHT WIND PROFILE
IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. WE ARE IN A TRANSITION FROM A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW TO AN EASTERLY ONE. GIVEN THE LIGHT BACKGROUND FLOW,
SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH WELL INLAND ON BOTH COASTS WITH
EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT IN THE UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY, BUT MOISTURE IS
HIGHER. MODIFIED CAPE AROUND 2800 J/KG AND PW AT 1.77 INCHES. WET
BULB ZERO IS MUCH HIGHER...AT ABOUT 12,500 FT. THERE ARE TWO
INVERSIONS THIS MORNING, ONE AT APPROX 700 MB AND THE OTHER AT
APPROX 450 MB. EVEN SO, STRONG TSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY, BUT SEVERE
THREAT LESS CERTAIN THAN YESTERDAY.

HRRR IS SHOWING THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZE INLAND FROM THE
POPULATED COASTS BY 1 PM. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AFTER THE NOON HOUR...GIVEN
THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AFTER 2
PM...TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE RURAL INTERIOR WITH STORM MOVEMENT CHAOTIC. BELIEVE MOST
TSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT TSTORM OUTFLOWS COULD
PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE METRO AREAS AND WOULD HAVE TO WATCH FOR NEW
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THOSE.

INHERITED POPS LOOK GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. /GREGORIA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG BOTH COASTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

.A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY INTERIOR AREAS...

.INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THIS
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE COLD SLOWLY DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND ALLOW
FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND. THEREFORE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES
COLLIDE...AS THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL REMAIN COOL
AROUND -9 TO -10C. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA SHIFTING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH SET
UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AIR TO
BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REDUCE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA.

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT KAPF TAF SITE TODAY WHILE INCREASING FROM
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...VCTS WILL BE
PUT IN AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE CEILINGS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND
INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE ON AN INCREASE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  75  89  78 /  40  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  88  80 /  30  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  76  89  79 /  40  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  74  92  72 /  30  10  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 221413
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1013 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...STRONG TSTORM THREAT INTERIOR SOUTH FL THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS A CHAOTIC AND LIGHT WIND PROFILE
IN THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS. WE ARE IN A TRANSITION FROM A WESTERLY
STEERING FLOW TO AN EASTERLY ONE. GIVEN THE LIGHT BACKGROUND FLOW,
SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH WELL INLAND ON BOTH COASTS WITH
EXCELLENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT IN THE UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE.
INSTABILITY IS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY, BUT MOISTURE IS
HIGHER. MODIFIED CAPE AROUND 2800 J/KG AND PW AT 1.77 INCHES. WET
BULB ZERO IS MUCH HIGHER...AT ABOUT 12,500 FT. THERE ARE TWO
INVERSIONS THIS MORNING, ONE AT APPROX 700 MB AND THE OTHER AT
APPROX 450 MB. EVEN SO, STRONG TSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY, BUT SEVERE
THREAT LESS CERTAIN THAN YESTERDAY.

HRRR IS SHOWING THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEA BREEZE INLAND FROM THE
POPULATED COASTS BY 1 PM. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AFTER THE NOON HOUR...GIVEN
THE HIGHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. AFTER 2
PM...TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
OVER THE RURAL INTERIOR WITH STORM MOVEMENT CHAOTIC. BELIEVE MOST
TSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR...BUT TSTORM OUTFLOWS COULD
PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE METRO AREAS AND WOULD HAVE TO WATCH FOR NEW
TSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON THOSE.

INHERITED POPS LOOK GOOD SO NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. /GREGORIA


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

AVIATION...
SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG BOTH COASTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

.A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY INTERIOR AREAS...

.INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THIS
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE COLD SLOWLY DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND ALLOW
FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND. THEREFORE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES
COLLIDE...AS THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL REMAIN COOL
AROUND -9 TO -10C. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA SHIFTING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH SET
UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AIR TO
BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REDUCE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA.

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT KAPF TAF SITE TODAY WHILE INCREASING FROM
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...VCTS WILL BE
PUT IN AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE CEILINGS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND
INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE ON AN INCREASE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  75  89  78 /  40  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  88  80 /  30  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  76  89  79 /  40  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  74  92  72 /  30  10  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221146
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG BOTH COASTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

..A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY INTERIOR AREAS...

..INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THIS
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE COLD SLOWLY DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND ALLOW
FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND. THEREFORE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES
COLLIDE...AS THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL REMAIN COOL
AROUND -9 TO -10C. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA SHIFTING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH SET
UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AIR TO
BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REDUCE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA.

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT KAPF TAF SITE TODAY WHILE INCREASING FROM
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...VCTS WILL BE
PUT IN AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE CEILINGS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND
INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE ON AN INCREASE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  75  89  78 /  40  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  88  80 /  30  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  76  89  79 /  40  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  74  92  72 /  30  10  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221146
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG BOTH COASTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

..A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY INTERIOR AREAS...

..INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THIS
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE COLD SLOWLY DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND ALLOW
FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND. THEREFORE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES
COLLIDE...AS THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL REMAIN COOL
AROUND -9 TO -10C. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA SHIFTING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH SET
UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AIR TO
BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REDUCE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA.

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT KAPF TAF SITE TODAY WHILE INCREASING FROM
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...VCTS WILL BE
PUT IN AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE CEILINGS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND
INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE ON AN INCREASE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  75  89  78 /  40  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  88  80 /  30  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  76  89  79 /  40  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  74  92  72 /  30  10  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 221146
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG BOTH COASTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

..A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY INTERIOR AREAS...

..INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THIS
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE COLD SLOWLY DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND ALLOW
FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND. THEREFORE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES
COLLIDE...AS THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL REMAIN COOL
AROUND -9 TO -10C. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA SHIFTING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH SET
UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AIR TO
BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REDUCE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA.

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT KAPF TAF SITE TODAY WHILE INCREASING FROM
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...VCTS WILL BE
PUT IN AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE CEILINGS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND
INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE ON AN INCREASE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  75  89  78 /  40  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  88  80 /  30  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  76  89  79 /  40  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  74  92  72 /  30  10  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 221146
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
746 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.AVIATION...
SURFACE WIND WILL BE L/V THIS MORNING WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
ALONG BOTH COASTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM ALL TERMINALS BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015/

..A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY INTERIOR AREAS...

..INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THIS
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE COLD SLOWLY DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND ALLOW
FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND. THEREFORE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES
COLLIDE...AS THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL REMAIN COOL
AROUND -9 TO -10C. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA SHIFTING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH SET
UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AIR TO
BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REDUCE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA.

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT KAPF TAF SITE TODAY WHILE INCREASING FROM
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...VCTS WILL BE
PUT IN AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE CEILINGS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND
INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE ON AN INCREASE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  75  89  78 /  40  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  88  80 /  30  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  76  89  79 /  40  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  74  92  72 /  30  10  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220724
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
324 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY INTERIOR AREAS...

...INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THIS
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...


.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE COLD SLOWLY DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND ALLOW
FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND. THEREFORE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES
COLLIDE...AS THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL REMAIN COOL
AROUND -9 TO -10C. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA SHIFTING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH SET
UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AIR TO
BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REDUCE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT KAPF TAF SITE TODAY WHILE INCREASING FROM
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...VCTS WILL BE
PUT IN AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE CEILINGS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND
INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE ON AN INCREASE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  75  89  78 /  40  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  88  80 /  30  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  76  89  79 /  40  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  74  92  72 /  30  10  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220724
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
324 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...A FEW STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY INTERIOR AREAS...

...INCREASE THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THIS
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...


.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TODAY INTO THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC WATERS...AS THE COLD SLOWLY DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING
SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND ALLOW
FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH
INLAND. THEREFORE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA BREEZES
COLLIDE...AS THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL REMAIN COOL
AROUND -9 TO -10C. THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL
BE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AN BREEZY EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET UP OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA SHIFTING THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC WATERS
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL HIGH SET
UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AIR TO
BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REDUCE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO A SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AND INCREASING TO AROUND 10
KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AT KAPF TAF SITE TODAY WHILE INCREASING FROM
AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...VCTS WILL BE
PUT IN AFTER 18Z TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE CEILINGS AND
VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME...DUE TO THE
UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY TODAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS BEFORE
SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND AND
INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IN
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND LOOKS
GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE ON AN INCREASE THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  75  89  78 /  40  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  88  80 /  30  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  76  89  79 /  40  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  74  92  72 /  30  10  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 220401 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1201 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE 2...
SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE INTERIOR BROWARD COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEAST ON THE NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND COULD WORK
INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF METRO BROWARD COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...PATCHY SMOKE WILL BE ADDED TO THE ZONES FOR METRO
BROWARD COUNTY FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE 2...BNB/54

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

UPDATE...

A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL PRESENT OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE. THE AREA IS
MOVING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING AT THE SAME TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY AROUND 10 PM AROUND THE AREA.
A BAND OF MOISTURE, OR WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED TO THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. SEA BREEZES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ON FRIDAY. WEAK SURFACE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
COLLIDE WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST METRO AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, AND THE EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
INTERIOR. THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY THE
WEEKEND OVER FLORIDA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NORTH
OF THE AREA AND BRING A FLOW OF MUCH DRIER EASTERLY WINDS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA.

A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS INCLUDED FOR FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND THE RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...

OUTFLOWS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH TO FLL AND FXE AIRPORTS. THUS INCLUDED VCTS UNTIL 01Z FOR
THESE TWO LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR
IS LOW AS THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. FRIDAY WE EXPECT A
SIMILAR START BUT AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
INTO THE INTERIOR AND THE WEST COAST AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE EAST COAST AIRPORTS FROM 18Z
TO 23Z FOR FRIDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

RIP CURRENTS A SIGNIFICANT RISK ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
CELLS FIRING UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS. ALREADY SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN THE KENDALL
AREA OF MIAMI-DADE. ONCE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE GULF SEA
BREEZE MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...BELIEVE THE
THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE IS THERE AS THE MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES
INDICATE AS SUCH. H5 TEMP ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE
DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH -6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY
MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300
J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO ERUPT. THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
(MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT.

THE FOCUS OF TSTORMS WILL BE OVER PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM OUR BRIEF WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO AN
EASTERLY ONE. FORECAST FLOW PATTERN SUGGEST THAT TSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE AND DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THAT A FEW PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL THREAT AGAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHEN THE WIND FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR-GULF COAST. THE
TREND THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF DRYING WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWATS FALLING ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY-MONDAY
FROM EAST TO WEST. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WHICH REDUCES TSTORM COVERAGE SUN-MON.

EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OCCURS BY TUESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING
PWATS FALLING BELOW 1.25 INCHES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS
ALSO FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO
A RATHER DRY REGIME FOR LATE MAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP.

A BIG HIGHLIGHT TO MENTION IS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WHICH WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE
RISK IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE-HIGH BY SUN-MON...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RIPS BEING GENERATED WITH TIME.
/GREGORIA

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY THEN PICK UP SUN-MON AND CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  75  88 /  10  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  90  76  87 /  10  30  20  30
MIAMI            75  91  76  88 /  10  40  20  30
NAPLES           74  90  74  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 220401 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1201 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.UPDATE 2...
SMOKE FROM A WILDFIRE INTERIOR BROWARD COUNTY LATE THIS EVENING
WILL PUSH SOUTHWEAST ON THE NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW AND COULD WORK
INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF METRO BROWARD COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...PATCHY SMOKE WILL BE ADDED TO THE ZONES FOR METRO
BROWARD COUNTY FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE 2...BNB/54

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

UPDATE...

A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL PRESENT OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE. THE AREA IS
MOVING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING AT THE SAME TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY AROUND 10 PM AROUND THE AREA.
A BAND OF MOISTURE, OR WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED TO THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. SEA BREEZES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ON FRIDAY. WEAK SURFACE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
COLLIDE WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST METRO AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, AND THE EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
INTERIOR. THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY THE
WEEKEND OVER FLORIDA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NORTH
OF THE AREA AND BRING A FLOW OF MUCH DRIER EASTERLY WINDS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA.

A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS INCLUDED FOR FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND THE RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...

OUTFLOWS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH TO FLL AND FXE AIRPORTS. THUS INCLUDED VCTS UNTIL 01Z FOR
THESE TWO LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR
IS LOW AS THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. FRIDAY WE EXPECT A
SIMILAR START BUT AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
INTO THE INTERIOR AND THE WEST COAST AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE EAST COAST AIRPORTS FROM 18Z
TO 23Z FOR FRIDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

RIP CURRENTS A SIGNIFICANT RISK ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
CELLS FIRING UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS. ALREADY SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN THE KENDALL
AREA OF MIAMI-DADE. ONCE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE GULF SEA
BREEZE MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...BELIEVE THE
THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE IS THERE AS THE MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES
INDICATE AS SUCH. H5 TEMP ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE
DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH -6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY
MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300
J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO ERUPT. THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
(MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT.

THE FOCUS OF TSTORMS WILL BE OVER PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM OUR BRIEF WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO AN
EASTERLY ONE. FORECAST FLOW PATTERN SUGGEST THAT TSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE AND DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THAT A FEW PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL THREAT AGAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHEN THE WIND FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR-GULF COAST. THE
TREND THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF DRYING WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWATS FALLING ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY-MONDAY
FROM EAST TO WEST. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WHICH REDUCES TSTORM COVERAGE SUN-MON.

EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OCCURS BY TUESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING
PWATS FALLING BELOW 1.25 INCHES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS
ALSO FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO
A RATHER DRY REGIME FOR LATE MAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP.

A BIG HIGHLIGHT TO MENTION IS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WHICH WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE
RISK IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE-HIGH BY SUN-MON...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RIPS BEING GENERATED WITH TIME.
/GREGORIA

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY THEN PICK UP SUN-MON AND CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  75  88 /  10  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  90  76  87 /  10  30  20  30
MIAMI            75  91  76  88 /  10  40  20  30
NAPLES           74  90  74  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220121
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
921 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...

A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL PRESENT OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE. THE AREA IS
MOVING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING AT THE SAME TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY AROUND 10 PM AROUND THE AREA.
A BAND OF MOISTURE, OR WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED TO THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. SEA BREEZES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ON FRIDAY. WEAK SURFACE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
COLLIDE WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST METRO AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, AND THE EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
INTERIOR. THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY THE
WEEKEND OVER FLORIDA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NORTH
OF THE AREA AND BRING A FLOW OF MUCH DRIER EASTERLY WINDS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA.

A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS INCLUDED FOR FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND THE RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...

OUTFLOWS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH TO FLL AND FXE AIRPORTS. THUS INCLUDED VCTS UNTIL 01Z FOR
THESE TWO LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR
IS LOW AS THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. FRIDAY WE EXPECT A
SIMILAR START BUT AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
INTO THE INTERIOR AND THE WEST COAST AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE EAST COAST AIRPORTS FROM 18Z
TO 23Z FOR FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

.ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

.RIP CURRENTS A SIGNIFICANT RISK ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
CELLS FIRING UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS. ALREADY SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN THE KENDALL
AREA OF MIAMI-DADE. ONCE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE GULF SEA
BREEZE MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...BELIEVE THE
THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE IS THERE AS THE MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES
INDICATE AS SUCH. H5 TEMP ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE
DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH -6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY
MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300
J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO ERUPT. THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
(MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT.

THE FOCUS OF TSTORMS WILL BE OVER PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM OUR BRIEF WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO AN
EASTERLY ONE. FORECAST FLOW PATTERN SUGGEST THAT TSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE AND DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THAT A FEW PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL THREAT AGAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHEN THE WIND FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR-GULF COAST. THE
TREND THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF DRYING WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWATS FALLING ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY-MONDAY
FROM EAST TO WEST. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WHICH REDUCES TSTORM COVERAGE SUN-MON.

EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OCCURS BY TUESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING
PWATS FALLING BELOW 1.25 INCHES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS
ALSO FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO
A RATHER DRY REGIME FOR LATE MAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP.

A BIG HIGHLIGHT TO MENTION IS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WHICH WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE
RISK IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE-HIGH BY SUN-MON...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RIPS BEING GENERATED WITH TIME.
/GREGORIA

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY THEN PICK UP SUN-MON AND CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  75  88 /  30  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  90  76  87 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            75  91  76  88 /  20  40  20  30
NAPLES           74  90  74  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 220121
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
921 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...

A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL PRESENT OVER
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE LAKE. THE AREA IS
MOVING EASTWARD AND WEAKENING AT THE SAME TIME. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO END BY AROUND 10 PM AROUND THE AREA.
A BAND OF MOISTURE, OR WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED TO THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA. THIS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA. SEA BREEZES WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ON FRIDAY. WEAK SURFACE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
COLLIDE WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AND TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST COAST METRO AREA BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES, AND THE EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES, THE
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
INTERIOR. THE MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS SHOULD BE SLOW FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.

A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY THE
WEEKEND OVER FLORIDA. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP NORTH
OF THE AREA AND BRING A FLOW OF MUCH DRIER EASTERLY WINDS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA.

A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS INCLUDED FOR FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND THE RISK INCREASES TO MODERATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...

OUTFLOWS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH TO FLL AND FXE AIRPORTS. THUS INCLUDED VCTS UNTIL 01Z FOR
THESE TWO LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR
IS LOW AS THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. FRIDAY WE EXPECT A
SIMILAR START BUT AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
INTO THE INTERIOR AND THE WEST COAST AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE EAST COAST AIRPORTS FROM 18Z
TO 23Z FOR FRIDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

.ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

.RIP CURRENTS A SIGNIFICANT RISK ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
CELLS FIRING UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS. ALREADY SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN THE KENDALL
AREA OF MIAMI-DADE. ONCE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE GULF SEA
BREEZE MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...BELIEVE THE
THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE IS THERE AS THE MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES
INDICATE AS SUCH. H5 TEMP ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE
DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH -6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY
MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300
J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO ERUPT. THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
(MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT.

THE FOCUS OF TSTORMS WILL BE OVER PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM OUR BRIEF WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO AN
EASTERLY ONE. FORECAST FLOW PATTERN SUGGEST THAT TSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE AND DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THAT A FEW PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL THREAT AGAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHEN THE WIND FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR-GULF COAST. THE
TREND THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF DRYING WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWATS FALLING ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY-MONDAY
FROM EAST TO WEST. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WHICH REDUCES TSTORM COVERAGE SUN-MON.

EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OCCURS BY TUESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING
PWATS FALLING BELOW 1.25 INCHES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS
ALSO FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO
A RATHER DRY REGIME FOR LATE MAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP.

A BIG HIGHLIGHT TO MENTION IS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WHICH WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE
RISK IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE-HIGH BY SUN-MON...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RIPS BEING GENERATED WITH TIME.
/GREGORIA

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY THEN PICK UP SUN-MON AND CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  75  88 /  30  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  90  76  87 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            75  91  76  88 /  20  40  20  30
NAPLES           74  90  74  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE





000
FXUS62 KMFL 212338
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...

OUTFLOWS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH TO FLL AND FXE AIRPORTS. THUS INCLUDED VCTS UNTIL 01Z FOR
THESE TWO LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR
IS LOW AS THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. FRIDAY WE EXPECT A
SIMILAR START BUT AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
INTO THE INTERIOR AND THE WEST COAST AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE EAST COAST AIRPORTS FROM 18Z
TO 23Z FOR FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

..ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

..RIP CURRENTS A SIGNIFICANT RISK ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
CELLS FIRING UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS. ALREADY SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN THE KENDALL
AREA OF MIAMI-DADE. ONCE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE GULF SEA
BREEZE MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...BELIEVE THE
THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE IS THERE AS THE MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES
INDICATE AS SUCH. H5 TEMP ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE
DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH -6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY
MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300
J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO ERUPT. THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
(MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT.

THE FOCUS OF TSTORMS WILL BE OVER PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM OUR BRIEF WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO AN
EASTERLY ONE. FORECAST FLOW PATTERN SUGGEST THAT TSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE AND DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THAT A FEW PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL THREAT AGAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHEN THE WIND FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR-GULF COAST. THE
TREND THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF DRYING WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWATS FALLING ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY-MONDAY
FROM EAST TO WEST. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WHICH REDUCES TSTORM COVERAGE SUN-MON.

EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OCCURS BY TUESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING
PWATS FALLING BELOW 1.25 INCHES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS
ALSO FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO
A RATHER DRY REGIME FOR LATE MAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP.

A BIG HIGHLIGHT TO MENTION IS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WHICH WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE
RISK IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE-HIGH BY SUN-MON...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RIPS BEING GENERATED WITH TIME.
/GREGORIA

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY THEN PICK UP SUN-MON AND CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  75  88 /  30  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  90  76  87 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            75  91  76  88 /  20  40  20  30
NAPLES           74  90  74  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
RADAR...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 212338
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...

OUTFLOWS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH TO FLL AND FXE AIRPORTS. THUS INCLUDED VCTS UNTIL 01Z FOR
THESE TWO LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR
IS LOW AS THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. FRIDAY WE EXPECT A
SIMILAR START BUT AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
INTO THE INTERIOR AND THE WEST COAST AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE EAST COAST AIRPORTS FROM 18Z
TO 23Z FOR FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

..ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

..RIP CURRENTS A SIGNIFICANT RISK ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
CELLS FIRING UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS. ALREADY SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN THE KENDALL
AREA OF MIAMI-DADE. ONCE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE GULF SEA
BREEZE MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...BELIEVE THE
THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE IS THERE AS THE MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES
INDICATE AS SUCH. H5 TEMP ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE
DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH -6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY
MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300
J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO ERUPT. THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
(MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT.

THE FOCUS OF TSTORMS WILL BE OVER PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM OUR BRIEF WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO AN
EASTERLY ONE. FORECAST FLOW PATTERN SUGGEST THAT TSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE AND DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THAT A FEW PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL THREAT AGAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHEN THE WIND FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR-GULF COAST. THE
TREND THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF DRYING WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWATS FALLING ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY-MONDAY
FROM EAST TO WEST. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WHICH REDUCES TSTORM COVERAGE SUN-MON.

EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OCCURS BY TUESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING
PWATS FALLING BELOW 1.25 INCHES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS
ALSO FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO
A RATHER DRY REGIME FOR LATE MAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP.

A BIG HIGHLIGHT TO MENTION IS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WHICH WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE
RISK IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE-HIGH BY SUN-MON...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RIPS BEING GENERATED WITH TIME.
/GREGORIA

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY THEN PICK UP SUN-MON AND CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  75  88 /  30  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  90  76  87 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            75  91  76  88 /  20  40  20  30
NAPLES           74  90  74  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
RADAR...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 212338
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...

OUTFLOWS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH TO FLL AND FXE AIRPORTS. THUS INCLUDED VCTS UNTIL 01Z FOR
THESE TWO LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR
IS LOW AS THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. FRIDAY WE EXPECT A
SIMILAR START BUT AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
INTO THE INTERIOR AND THE WEST COAST AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE EAST COAST AIRPORTS FROM 18Z
TO 23Z FOR FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

..ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

..RIP CURRENTS A SIGNIFICANT RISK ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
CELLS FIRING UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS. ALREADY SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN THE KENDALL
AREA OF MIAMI-DADE. ONCE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE GULF SEA
BREEZE MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...BELIEVE THE
THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE IS THERE AS THE MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES
INDICATE AS SUCH. H5 TEMP ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE
DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH -6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY
MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300
J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO ERUPT. THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
(MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT.

THE FOCUS OF TSTORMS WILL BE OVER PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM OUR BRIEF WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO AN
EASTERLY ONE. FORECAST FLOW PATTERN SUGGEST THAT TSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE AND DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THAT A FEW PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL THREAT AGAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHEN THE WIND FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR-GULF COAST. THE
TREND THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF DRYING WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWATS FALLING ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY-MONDAY
FROM EAST TO WEST. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WHICH REDUCES TSTORM COVERAGE SUN-MON.

EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OCCURS BY TUESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING
PWATS FALLING BELOW 1.25 INCHES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS
ALSO FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO
A RATHER DRY REGIME FOR LATE MAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP.

A BIG HIGHLIGHT TO MENTION IS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WHICH WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE
RISK IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE-HIGH BY SUN-MON...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RIPS BEING GENERATED WITH TIME.
/GREGORIA

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY THEN PICK UP SUN-MON AND CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  75  88 /  30  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  90  76  87 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            75  91  76  88 /  20  40  20  30
NAPLES           74  90  74  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
RADAR...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 212338
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...

OUTFLOWS FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR COULD GET CLOSE
ENOUGH TO FLL AND FXE AIRPORTS. THUS INCLUDED VCTS UNTIL 01Z FOR
THESE TWO LOCATIONS. HOWEVER, THE CONFIDENCE THAT THIS WOULD OCCUR
IS LOW AS THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. FRIDAY WE EXPECT A
SIMILAR START BUT AS THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INCREASES IN THE
AFTERNOON THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WESTWARD
INTO THE INTERIOR AND THE WEST COAST AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR THE EAST COAST AIRPORTS FROM 18Z
TO 23Z FOR FRIDAY.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

..ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

..RIP CURRENTS A SIGNIFICANT RISK ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
CELLS FIRING UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS. ALREADY SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN THE KENDALL
AREA OF MIAMI-DADE. ONCE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE GULF SEA
BREEZE MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...BELIEVE THE
THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE IS THERE AS THE MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES
INDICATE AS SUCH. H5 TEMP ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE
DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH -6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY
MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300
J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO ERUPT. THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
(MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT.

THE FOCUS OF TSTORMS WILL BE OVER PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM OUR BRIEF WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO AN
EASTERLY ONE. FORECAST FLOW PATTERN SUGGEST THAT TSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE AND DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THAT A FEW PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL THREAT AGAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHEN THE WIND FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR-GULF COAST. THE
TREND THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF DRYING WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWATS FALLING ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY-MONDAY
FROM EAST TO WEST. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WHICH REDUCES TSTORM COVERAGE SUN-MON.

EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OCCURS BY TUESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING
PWATS FALLING BELOW 1.25 INCHES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS
ALSO FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO
A RATHER DRY REGIME FOR LATE MAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP.

A BIG HIGHLIGHT TO MENTION IS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WHICH WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE
RISK IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE-HIGH BY SUN-MON...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RIPS BEING GENERATED WITH TIME.
/GREGORIA

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY THEN PICK UP SUN-MON AND CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  75  88 /  30  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  90  76  87 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            75  91  76  88 /  20  40  20  30
NAPLES           74  90  74  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
RADAR...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 211929
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

...ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

...RIP CURRENTS A SIGNIFICANT RISK ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
CELLS FIRING UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS. ALREADY SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN THE KENDALL
AREA OF MIAMI-DADE. ONCE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE GULF SEA
BREEZE MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...BELIEVE THE
THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE IS THERE AS THE MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES
INDICATE AS SUCH. H5 TEMP ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE
DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH -6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY
MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300
J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO ERUPT. THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
(MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT.

THE FOCUS OF TSTORMS WILL BE OVER PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM OUR BRIEF WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO AN
EASTERLY ONE. FORECAST FLOW PATTERN SUGGEST THAT TSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE AND DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THAT A FEW PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL THREAT AGAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHEN THE WIND FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR-GULF COAST. THE
TREND THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF DRYING WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWATS FALLING ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY-MONDAY
FROM EAST TO WEST. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WHICH REDUCES TSTORM COVERAGE SUN-MON.

EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OCCURS BY TUESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING
PWATS FALLING BELOW 1.25 INCHES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS
ALSO FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO
A RATHER DRY REGIME FOR LATE MAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP.

A BIG HIGHLIGHT TO MENTION IS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WHICH WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE
RISK IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE-HIGH BY SUN-MON...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RIPS BEING GENERATED WITH TIME.
/GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY THEN PICK UP SUN-MON AND CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND THIS SHOULD BE AN ONGOING TREND WITH TSRA FORMING BY
19Z. MOVEMENT OF THESE CELLS WILL BE TO THE ESE OR SE SO WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN SEVERE WIND GUSTS (55-60 KNOTS) AND
LARGE HAIL OF AROUND 1" BUT FEELING THIS WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS HOW
FAR INLAND THE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING IT WOULD NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR BUT
LATER DATA SHOWS IT WILL SO HAVE INDICATED THUSLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  75  88 /  30  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  90  76  87 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            75  91  76  88 /  20  40  20  30
NAPLES           74  90  74  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211929
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

...ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

...RIP CURRENTS A SIGNIFICANT RISK ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
CELLS FIRING UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS. ALREADY SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN THE KENDALL
AREA OF MIAMI-DADE. ONCE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE GULF SEA
BREEZE MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...BELIEVE THE
THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE IS THERE AS THE MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES
INDICATE AS SUCH. H5 TEMP ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE
DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH -6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY
MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300
J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO ERUPT. THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
(MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT.

THE FOCUS OF TSTORMS WILL BE OVER PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM OUR BRIEF WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO AN
EASTERLY ONE. FORECAST FLOW PATTERN SUGGEST THAT TSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE AND DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THAT A FEW PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL THREAT AGAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHEN THE WIND FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR-GULF COAST. THE
TREND THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF DRYING WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWATS FALLING ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY-MONDAY
FROM EAST TO WEST. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WHICH REDUCES TSTORM COVERAGE SUN-MON.

EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OCCURS BY TUESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING
PWATS FALLING BELOW 1.25 INCHES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS
ALSO FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO
A RATHER DRY REGIME FOR LATE MAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP.

A BIG HIGHLIGHT TO MENTION IS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WHICH WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE
RISK IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE-HIGH BY SUN-MON...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RIPS BEING GENERATED WITH TIME.
/GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY THEN PICK UP SUN-MON AND CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND THIS SHOULD BE AN ONGOING TREND WITH TSRA FORMING BY
19Z. MOVEMENT OF THESE CELLS WILL BE TO THE ESE OR SE SO WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN SEVERE WIND GUSTS (55-60 KNOTS) AND
LARGE HAIL OF AROUND 1" BUT FEELING THIS WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS HOW
FAR INLAND THE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING IT WOULD NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR BUT
LATER DATA SHOWS IT WILL SO HAVE INDICATED THUSLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  75  88 /  30  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  90  76  87 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            75  91  76  88 /  20  40  20  30
NAPLES           74  90  74  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 211929
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

...ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

...RIP CURRENTS A SIGNIFICANT RISK ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
CELLS FIRING UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS. ALREADY SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN THE KENDALL
AREA OF MIAMI-DADE. ONCE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE GULF SEA
BREEZE MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...BELIEVE THE
THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE IS THERE AS THE MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES
INDICATE AS SUCH. H5 TEMP ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE
DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH -6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY
MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300
J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO ERUPT. THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
(MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT.

THE FOCUS OF TSTORMS WILL BE OVER PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM OUR BRIEF WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO AN
EASTERLY ONE. FORECAST FLOW PATTERN SUGGEST THAT TSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE AND DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THAT A FEW PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL THREAT AGAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHEN THE WIND FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR-GULF COAST. THE
TREND THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF DRYING WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWATS FALLING ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY-MONDAY
FROM EAST TO WEST. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WHICH REDUCES TSTORM COVERAGE SUN-MON.

EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OCCURS BY TUESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING
PWATS FALLING BELOW 1.25 INCHES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS
ALSO FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO
A RATHER DRY REGIME FOR LATE MAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP.

A BIG HIGHLIGHT TO MENTION IS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WHICH WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE
RISK IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE-HIGH BY SUN-MON...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RIPS BEING GENERATED WITH TIME.
/GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY THEN PICK UP SUN-MON AND CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND THIS SHOULD BE AN ONGOING TREND WITH TSRA FORMING BY
19Z. MOVEMENT OF THESE CELLS WILL BE TO THE ESE OR SE SO WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN SEVERE WIND GUSTS (55-60 KNOTS) AND
LARGE HAIL OF AROUND 1" BUT FEELING THIS WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS HOW
FAR INLAND THE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING IT WOULD NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR BUT
LATER DATA SHOWS IT WILL SO HAVE INDICATED THUSLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  75  88 /  30  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  90  76  87 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            75  91  76  88 /  20  40  20  30
NAPLES           74  90  74  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211929
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
329 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

...ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

...RIP CURRENTS A SIGNIFICANT RISK ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL
DAY WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
CELLS FIRING UP ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE OVER THE EAST COAST
METROPOLITAN AREAS. ALREADY SMALL HAIL REPORTED IN THE KENDALL
AREA OF MIAMI-DADE. ONCE CONVERGENCE INCREASES AS THE GULF SEA
BREEZE MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS THE EAST COAST...BELIEVE THE
THREAT FOR PULSE SEVERE IS THERE AS THE MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES
INDICATE AS SUCH. H5 TEMP ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE
DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE
RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH -6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY
MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300
J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO ERUPT. THE AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH
(MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT.

THE FOCUS OF TSTORMS WILL BE OVER PALM BEACH, BROWARD, AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES. ACTIVITY WILL WANE DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY IS A TRANSITION FROM OUR BRIEF WESTERLY FLOW REGIME TO AN
EASTERLY ONE. FORECAST FLOW PATTERN SUGGEST THAT TSTORMS COULD
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE AND DEVELOP FURTHER
INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. AGAIN...PARAMETERS SUGGEST
THAT A FEW PULSE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A
GUSTY WIND AND HAIL THREAT AGAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS WHEN THE WIND FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY
AS A RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS FLOW PATTERN
WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR-GULF COAST. THE
TREND THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL BE ONE OF DRYING WITH BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWATS FALLING ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY-MONDAY
FROM EAST TO WEST. MOISTURE LOOKS RATHER HIGH ON SATURDAY WITH
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GULF COAST BEFORE THE
DRIER AIR MOVES IN WHICH REDUCES TSTORM COVERAGE SUN-MON.

EVEN MORE SUBSTANTIAL DRYING OCCURS BY TUESDAY...WITH GFS SHOWING
PWATS FALLING BELOW 1.25 INCHES. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DEWPOINTS
ALSO FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO
A RATHER DRY REGIME FOR LATE MAY LOOKS TO BE SHAPING UP.

A BIG HIGHLIGHT TO MENTION IS THE RIP CURRENT RISK WHICH WILL BE
INCREASING ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THIS MEMORIAL WEEKEND. THE
RISK IS FORECAST TO BE MODERATE-HIGH BY SUN-MON...AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL BE PERSISTENT
WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONG RIPS BEING GENERATED WITH TIME.
/GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. BY SATURDAY...WINDS
BECOME EASTERLY THEN PICK UP SUN-MON AND CONTINUE AT AROUND 15 KT
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...CREATING CHOPPY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND THIS SHOULD BE AN ONGOING TREND WITH TSRA FORMING BY
19Z. MOVEMENT OF THESE CELLS WILL BE TO THE ESE OR SE SO WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN SEVERE WIND GUSTS (55-60 KNOTS) AND
LARGE HAIL OF AROUND 1" BUT FEELING THIS WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS HOW
FAR INLAND THE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING IT WOULD NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR BUT
LATER DATA SHOWS IT WILL SO HAVE INDICATED THUSLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  90  75  88 /  30  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  90  76  87 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            75  91  76  88 /  20  40  20  30
NAPLES           74  90  74  92 /  10  30  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 211751
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
151 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND THIS SHOULD BE AN ONGOING TREND WITH TSRA FORMING BY
19Z. MOVEMENT OF THESE CELLS WILL BE TO THE ESE OR SE SO WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN SEVERE WIND GUSTS (55-60 KNOTS) AND
LARGE HAIL OF AROUND 1" BUT FEELING THIS WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS HOW
FAR INLAND THE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING IT WOULD NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR BUT
LATER DATA SHOWS IT WILL SO HAVE INDICATED THUSLY.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

..ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

UPDATE...
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS...OR JUST INLAND. STORM
MOTION IS NW NEAR 5 KT...SO TSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE METRO AREAS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.

MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES INDICATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. H5 TEMP ON
THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH
-6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED
SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300 J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND
FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH (MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH
WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT
AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT. HAVE ADDED THE ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
POTENTIAL INTO OUR PRODUCTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA.

HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DELAYED UNTIL ABOUT 2 PM.
GIVEN A SMALL CAP AND A NOT-SO-MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. STORM INTENSITY WILL FADE BY EARLY EVENING. SO
STRONG-SEVERE RISK IS CENTERED ON THE 2-6 PM TIMEFRAME. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST STEERING
FLOW EXPECTED SHOULD CONCENTRATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS INDICATED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THOSE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR FOR NOW
AS TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE MUCH IN
ADVANCE. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS ALTHOUGH THE
EAST COAST BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND SO SOME LOCATIONS
MAY NOT GO SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN GET ORGANIZED.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LIGHT WINDS. FOG AND/OR SMOKE IS POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 75...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 60
THROUGH 73 DUE TO WILDFIRES.

TODAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING...500MB
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR -10C...WHICH IS ABOUT 1C COOLER THAN AVERAGE.
700-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL APPROACH 7C...AND WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...COULD GET A FEW PULSE STRONG
TO NEAR SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS
ALOFT ARE OUT OF THE WEST...AND AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS INLAND. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...BUT COULD MOVE ERRATICALLY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SO ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND OTHER CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO PALM BEACH
COUNTY IN THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND STALL. MOISTURE WILL POOL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PUSH INLAND. THIS WILL FOCUS STORMS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...BUT WITH SLOW STORM MOTION...SCATTERED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY...BUT PULSE STRONG
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
BACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
ON SATURDAY AND THEN CENTER ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST
OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS LIKELY AT
AT THE EAST COAST BEACHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THE EAST
COAST...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST...AS WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP. AFTER SATURDAY...THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BE TOO
STRONG...AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO DRIFTING TO THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. WARM AND DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL...LEADING
TO LOW RAIN CHANCES.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
BY MID DAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MAY CAUSE BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR AT THE TAF SITES FROM KFXE SOUTH. KAPF LOOKS TO
REMAIN CLEAR OF MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY, AS IT
SHOULD FORM TO THE EAST AND REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT AS THE
GULF BREEZE STRENGTHENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP KPBI AVOID
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY AS WELL. HOWEVER, THEY MAY STILL SEE SOME
PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA.
BUT, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM
KFXE, AND SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE A PROB30 GROUP
IN FOR TSRA AT MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TAF SITES. ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST TAF SITES SEEING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SUN-MON WHEN WINDS COULD PREVAIL NEAR 15 KT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ROUGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 211751
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
151 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND THIS SHOULD BE AN ONGOING TREND WITH TSRA FORMING BY
19Z. MOVEMENT OF THESE CELLS WILL BE TO THE ESE OR SE SO WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN SEVERE WIND GUSTS (55-60 KNOTS) AND
LARGE HAIL OF AROUND 1" BUT FEELING THIS WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS HOW
FAR INLAND THE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING IT WOULD NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR BUT
LATER DATA SHOWS IT WILL SO HAVE INDICATED THUSLY.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

..ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

UPDATE...
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS...OR JUST INLAND. STORM
MOTION IS NW NEAR 5 KT...SO TSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE METRO AREAS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.

MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES INDICATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. H5 TEMP ON
THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH
-6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED
SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300 J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND
FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH (MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH
WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT
AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT. HAVE ADDED THE ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
POTENTIAL INTO OUR PRODUCTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA.

HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DELAYED UNTIL ABOUT 2 PM.
GIVEN A SMALL CAP AND A NOT-SO-MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. STORM INTENSITY WILL FADE BY EARLY EVENING. SO
STRONG-SEVERE RISK IS CENTERED ON THE 2-6 PM TIMEFRAME. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST STEERING
FLOW EXPECTED SHOULD CONCENTRATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS INDICATED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THOSE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR FOR NOW
AS TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE MUCH IN
ADVANCE. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS ALTHOUGH THE
EAST COAST BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND SO SOME LOCATIONS
MAY NOT GO SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN GET ORGANIZED.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LIGHT WINDS. FOG AND/OR SMOKE IS POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 75...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 60
THROUGH 73 DUE TO WILDFIRES.

TODAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING...500MB
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR -10C...WHICH IS ABOUT 1C COOLER THAN AVERAGE.
700-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL APPROACH 7C...AND WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...COULD GET A FEW PULSE STRONG
TO NEAR SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS
ALOFT ARE OUT OF THE WEST...AND AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS INLAND. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...BUT COULD MOVE ERRATICALLY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SO ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND OTHER CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO PALM BEACH
COUNTY IN THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND STALL. MOISTURE WILL POOL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PUSH INLAND. THIS WILL FOCUS STORMS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...BUT WITH SLOW STORM MOTION...SCATTERED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY...BUT PULSE STRONG
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
BACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
ON SATURDAY AND THEN CENTER ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST
OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS LIKELY AT
AT THE EAST COAST BEACHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THE EAST
COAST...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST...AS WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP. AFTER SATURDAY...THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BE TOO
STRONG...AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO DRIFTING TO THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. WARM AND DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL...LEADING
TO LOW RAIN CHANCES.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
BY MID DAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MAY CAUSE BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR AT THE TAF SITES FROM KFXE SOUTH. KAPF LOOKS TO
REMAIN CLEAR OF MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY, AS IT
SHOULD FORM TO THE EAST AND REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT AS THE
GULF BREEZE STRENGTHENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP KPBI AVOID
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY AS WELL. HOWEVER, THEY MAY STILL SEE SOME
PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA.
BUT, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM
KFXE, AND SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE A PROB30 GROUP
IN FOR TSRA AT MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TAF SITES. ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST TAF SITES SEEING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SUN-MON WHEN WINDS COULD PREVAIL NEAR 15 KT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ROUGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 211751
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
151 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE AND THIS SHOULD BE AN ONGOING TREND WITH TSRA FORMING BY
19Z. MOVEMENT OF THESE CELLS WILL BE TO THE ESE OR SE SO WILL
IMPACT MOST OF THE TERMINALS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A FEW OF
THE STORMS COULD ALSO CONTAIN SEVERE WIND GUSTS (55-60 KNOTS) AND
LARGE HAIL OF AROUND 1" BUT FEELING THIS WOULD BE TOO ISOLATED TO
PLACE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE OTHER UNCERTAINTY IS HOW
FAR INLAND THE SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
EARLIER GUIDANCE WAS SUGGESTING IT WOULD NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR BUT
LATER DATA SHOWS IT WILL SO HAVE INDICATED THUSLY.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 954 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

..ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

UPDATE...
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS...OR JUST INLAND. STORM
MOTION IS NW NEAR 5 KT...SO TSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE METRO AREAS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.

MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES INDICATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. H5 TEMP ON
THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH
-6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED
SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300 J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND
FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH (MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH
WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT
AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT. HAVE ADDED THE ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
POTENTIAL INTO OUR PRODUCTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA.

HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DELAYED UNTIL ABOUT 2 PM.
GIVEN A SMALL CAP AND A NOT-SO-MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. STORM INTENSITY WILL FADE BY EARLY EVENING. SO
STRONG-SEVERE RISK IS CENTERED ON THE 2-6 PM TIMEFRAME. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST STEERING
FLOW EXPECTED SHOULD CONCENTRATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS INDICATED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THOSE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR FOR NOW
AS TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE MUCH IN
ADVANCE. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS ALTHOUGH THE
EAST COAST BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND SO SOME LOCATIONS
MAY NOT GO SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN GET ORGANIZED.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LIGHT WINDS. FOG AND/OR SMOKE IS POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 75...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 60
THROUGH 73 DUE TO WILDFIRES.

TODAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING...500MB
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR -10C...WHICH IS ABOUT 1C COOLER THAN AVERAGE.
700-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL APPROACH 7C...AND WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...COULD GET A FEW PULSE STRONG
TO NEAR SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS
ALOFT ARE OUT OF THE WEST...AND AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS INLAND. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...BUT COULD MOVE ERRATICALLY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SO ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND OTHER CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO PALM BEACH
COUNTY IN THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND STALL. MOISTURE WILL POOL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PUSH INLAND. THIS WILL FOCUS STORMS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...BUT WITH SLOW STORM MOTION...SCATTERED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY...BUT PULSE STRONG
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
BACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
ON SATURDAY AND THEN CENTER ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST
OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS LIKELY AT
AT THE EAST COAST BEACHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THE EAST
COAST...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST...AS WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP. AFTER SATURDAY...THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BE TOO
STRONG...AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO DRIFTING TO THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. WARM AND DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL...LEADING
TO LOW RAIN CHANCES.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
BY MID DAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MAY CAUSE BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR AT THE TAF SITES FROM KFXE SOUTH. KAPF LOOKS TO
REMAIN CLEAR OF MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY, AS IT
SHOULD FORM TO THE EAST AND REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT AS THE
GULF BREEZE STRENGTHENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP KPBI AVOID
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY AS WELL. HOWEVER, THEY MAY STILL SEE SOME
PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA.
BUT, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM
KFXE, AND SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE A PROB30 GROUP
IN FOR TSRA AT MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TAF SITES. ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST TAF SITES SEEING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SUN-MON WHEN WINDS COULD PREVAIL NEAR 15 KT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ROUGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211354
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
954 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

...ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS...OR JUST INLAND. STORM
MOTION IS NW NEAR 5 KT...SO TSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE METRO AREAS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.

MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES INDICATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. H5 TEMP ON
THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH
-6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED
SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300 J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND
FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH (MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH
WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT
AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT. HAVE ADDED THE ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
POTENTIAL INTO OUR PRODUCTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA.

HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DELAYED UNTIL ABOUT 2 PM.
GIVEN A SMALL CAP AND A NOT-SO-MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. STORM INTENSITY WILL FADE BY EARLY EVENING. SO
STRONG-SEVERE RISK IS CENTERED ON THE 2-6 PM TIMEFRAME. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST STEERING
FLOW EXPECTED SHOULD CONCENTRATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS INDICATED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THOSE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR FOR NOW
AS TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE MUCH IN
ADVANCE. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS ALTHOUGH THE
EAST COAST BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND SO SOME LOCATIONS
MAY NOT GO SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN GET ORGANIZED.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

.STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
.DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LIGHT WINDS. FOG AND/OR SMOKE IS POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 75...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 60
THROUGH 73 DUE TO WILDFIRES.

TODAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING...500MB
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR -10C...WHICH IS ABOUT 1C COOLER THAN AVERAGE.
700-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL APPROACH 7C...AND WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...COULD GET A FEW PULSE STRONG
TO NEAR SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS
ALOFT ARE OUT OF THE WEST...AND AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS INLAND. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...BUT COULD MOVE ERRATICALLY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SO ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND OTHER CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO PALM BEACH
COUNTY IN THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND STALL. MOISTURE WILL POOL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PUSH INLAND. THIS WILL FOCUS STORMS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...BUT WITH SLOW STORM MOTION...SCATTERED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY...BUT PULSE STRONG
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
BACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
ON SATURDAY AND THEN CENTER ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST
OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS LIKELY AT
AT THE EAST COAST BEACHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THE EAST
COAST...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST...AS WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP. AFTER SATURDAY...THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BE TOO
STRONG...AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO DRIFTING TO THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. WARM AND DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL...LEADING
TO LOW RAIN CHANCES.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
BY MID DAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MAY CAUSE BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR AT THE TAF SITES FROM KFXE SOUTH. KAPF LOOKS TO
REMAIN CLEAR OF MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY, AS IT
SHOULD FORM TO THE EAST AND REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT AS THE
GULF BREEZE STRENGTHENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP KPBI AVOID
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY AS WELL. HOWEVER, THEY MAY STILL SEE SOME
PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA.
BUT, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM
KFXE, AND SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE A PROB30 GROUP
IN FOR TSRA AT MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TAF SITES. ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST TAF SITES SEEING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SUN-MON WHEN WINDS COULD PREVAIL NEAR 15 KT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ROUGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  75  89  76 /  40  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  76  89  77 /  60  30  30  30
MIAMI            90  76  90  76 /  70  30  40  30
NAPLES           89  75  91  73 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211354
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
954 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

...ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE TSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST COAST METRO TO
INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON...

.UPDATE...
SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS FORECAST TO SET UP OVER THE WESTERN SUBURBS
OF THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS...OR JUST INLAND. STORM
MOTION IS NW NEAR 5 KT...SO TSTORMS WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE METRO AREAS ONCE THEY DEVELOP.

MODIFIED SOUNDING INDICES INDICATE SEVERE POTENTIAL. H5 TEMP ON
THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS -9.5C AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST EVEN
SOME SLIGHT COOLING THROUGH THE DAY...BELOW THE MEAN FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES BY SOUTH FL STANDARDS WITH
-6.8C IN THE H5 TO H7 LAYER. DRY MID LEVEL AIR PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA WITH A LOW WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT OF AROUND 9500 FT. MODIFIED
SURFACE BASED CAPE IS NEAR 3300 J/KG. AS THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND BUMPS UP AGAINST THE SYNOPTIC SCALE W-NW WIND
FLOW...CONVERGENCE WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO ERUPT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH (MICROBURST INDEX/MDPI IS 1.2 WITH
WINDEX 60KT.) LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE GIVEN THE COLD AIR ALOFT
AND LOW WET BULB ZERO HGT. HAVE ADDED THE ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE
POTENTIAL INTO OUR PRODUCTS AND SOCIAL MEDIA.

HRRR SHOWS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DELAYED UNTIL ABOUT 2 PM.
GIVEN A SMALL CAP AND A NOT-SO-MOIST ATMOSPHERE...THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE. STORM INTENSITY WILL FADE BY EARLY EVENING. SO
STRONG-SEVERE RISK IS CENTERED ON THE 2-6 PM TIMEFRAME. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

AVIATION...
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST STEERING
FLOW EXPECTED SHOULD CONCENTRATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS INDICATED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THOSE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR FOR NOW
AS TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE MUCH IN
ADVANCE. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS ALTHOUGH THE
EAST COAST BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND SO SOME LOCATIONS
MAY NOT GO SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN GET ORGANIZED.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

.STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
.DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LIGHT WINDS. FOG AND/OR SMOKE IS POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 75...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 60
THROUGH 73 DUE TO WILDFIRES.

TODAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING...500MB
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR -10C...WHICH IS ABOUT 1C COOLER THAN AVERAGE.
700-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL APPROACH 7C...AND WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...COULD GET A FEW PULSE STRONG
TO NEAR SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS
ALOFT ARE OUT OF THE WEST...AND AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS INLAND. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...BUT COULD MOVE ERRATICALLY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SO ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND OTHER CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO PALM BEACH
COUNTY IN THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND STALL. MOISTURE WILL POOL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PUSH INLAND. THIS WILL FOCUS STORMS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...BUT WITH SLOW STORM MOTION...SCATTERED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY...BUT PULSE STRONG
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
BACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
ON SATURDAY AND THEN CENTER ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST
OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS LIKELY AT
AT THE EAST COAST BEACHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THE EAST
COAST...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST...AS WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP. AFTER SATURDAY...THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BE TOO
STRONG...AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO DRIFTING TO THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. WARM AND DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL...LEADING
TO LOW RAIN CHANCES.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
BY MID DAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MAY CAUSE BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR AT THE TAF SITES FROM KFXE SOUTH. KAPF LOOKS TO
REMAIN CLEAR OF MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY, AS IT
SHOULD FORM TO THE EAST AND REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT AS THE
GULF BREEZE STRENGTHENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP KPBI AVOID
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY AS WELL. HOWEVER, THEY MAY STILL SEE SOME
PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA.
BUT, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM
KFXE, AND SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE A PROB30 GROUP
IN FOR TSRA AT MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TAF SITES. ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST TAF SITES SEEING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SUN-MON WHEN WINDS COULD PREVAIL NEAR 15 KT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ROUGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  75  89  76 /  40  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  76  89  77 /  60  30  30  30
MIAMI            90  76  90  76 /  70  30  40  30
NAPLES           89  75  91  73 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 211159
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
759 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AND MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST STEERING
FLOW EXPECTED SHOULD CONCENTRATE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS INDICATED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS FOR THOSE TERMINALS. HOWEVER, KEPT CONDITIONS MVFR FOR NOW
AS TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE MUCH IN
ADVANCE. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS ALTHOUGH THE
EAST COAST BOUNDARY WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND SO SOME LOCATIONS
MAY NOT GO SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTION CAN GET ORGANIZED.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015/

..STRONG STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...
..DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES OVER MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
QUIET CONDITIONS PREVAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH LIGHT WINDS. FOG AND/OR SMOKE IS POSSIBLE ALONG
PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 75...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 60
THROUGH 73 DUE TO WILDFIRES.

TODAY...TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL DUE TO WEAK TROUGHING...500MB
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR -10C...WHICH IS ABOUT 1C COOLER THAN AVERAGE.
700-500MB LAPSE RATES WILL APPROACH 7C...AND WITH A LITTLE
LINGERING DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...COULD GET A FEW PULSE STRONG
TO NEAR SEVERE DOWNBURSTS. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. WINDS
ALOFT ARE OUT OF THE WEST...AND AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MAKE
SLOW PROGRESS INLAND. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND
SOUTHEAST...BUT COULD MOVE ERRATICALLY ALONG SEA BREEZE AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SO ANOTHER CONCERN IS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.
STORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS...AND OTHER CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA MAY MAKE ITS WAY BACK INTO PALM BEACH
COUNTY IN THE EVENING.

FRIDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL
MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND STALL. MOISTURE WILL POOL SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL WEAKEN...WHICH WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO PUSH INLAND. THIS WILL FOCUS STORMS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR...BUT WITH SLOW STORM MOTION...SCATTERED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL ALSO WARM SLIGHTLY...BUT PULSE STRONG
STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WILL BEGIN TO LIFT OUT...WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING
BACK EAST ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY. STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
ON SATURDAY AND THEN CENTER ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EAST
OF THE CAROLINAS SUNDAY AND MEMORIAL DAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO
MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS LIKELY AT
AT THE EAST COAST BEACHES. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FOR THE EAST
COAST...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE. RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE SATURDAY FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST...AS WINDS WILL STILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR THE GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP. AFTER SATURDAY...THE EASTERLY FLOW MAY BE TOO
STRONG...AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE SHOWING A CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW
NORTHEAST OF PUERTO RICO DRIFTING TO THE WEST THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. WARM AND DRY LOW/MID LEVEL AIR IS FORECAST TO PUSH
BACK INTO THE REGION WITH PWATS FALLING TO BELOW NORMAL...LEADING
TO LOW RAIN CHANCES.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE MID TO LATE MORNING.
BY MID DAY, SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND MAY CAUSE BRIEF
PERIOD OF IFR AT THE TAF SITES FROM KFXE SOUTH. KAPF LOOKS TO
REMAIN CLEAR OF MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY, AS IT
SHOULD FORM TO THE EAST AND REMAIN AWAY FROM THE AIRPORT AS THE
GULF BREEZE STRENGTHENS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE STEERING FLOW
WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST, WHICH SHOULD ALSO HELP KPBI AVOID
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY AS WELL. HOWEVER, THEY MAY STILL SEE SOME
PERIODS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN THE AREA.
BUT, CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM
KFXE, AND SOUTH. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH TO PLACE A PROB30 GROUP
IN FOR TSRA AT MOST OF THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA TAF SITES. ACTIVITY
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE SOUTHERN
MOST TAF SITES SEEING THE SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING INTO THE
EVENING HOURS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT WILL
PICK UP OUT OF THE EAST THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY
SUN-MON WHEN WINDS COULD PREVAIL NEAR 15 KT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
CHOPPY SEA CONDITIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH ROUGH SURF
AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING AT THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  75  89  76 /  40  30  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  76  89  77 /  60  30  30  30
MIAMI            90  76  90  76 /  70  30  40  30
NAPLES           89  75  91  73 /  10  10  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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