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000
FXUS62 KMFL 240809
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF FLORIDA MAY LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE QUITE WARM...AVERAGING 80F IN
THE METROPOLITAN AREAS. YESTERDAYS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT KMIA
WAS 79F...WHICH TIED FOR THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR
SO FAR. TODAYS LOW WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SIMILAR. DEEP LAYER
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THIS SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FURTHER...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO FOCUS ALONG SEA- BREEZE BOUNDARIES BY MIDDAY...FOCUSING MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON FRIDAY...SUBTLE
WEAKNESS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST
WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT AND OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SLIGHTLY. LITTLE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION BESIDES SEA- BREEZES...BUT ACTIVITY MAY STILL MANAGE TO
BE A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AND NUMEROUS WHERE THE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE. THEREAFTER...THE DEEP RIDGE
BUILDS FURTHER OVER FLORIDA AND UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
OVER THE PENINSULA FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MAXIMA AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MINIMA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ANOMOLOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTHERNMOST FLORIDA AS EARLY AS MONDAY...AND MAY
GRADUALLY INCH TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHAT
APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA IS A VEERING OF OVERALL
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A BIT WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF...AS WELL AS THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING FROM THE INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST. THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS THIS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
POPS AS MID-WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 15Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL ALSO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 16Z THEN SWING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AS
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL REDUCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL HAVE ONLY VCSH IN FOR TODAY AFTER 15Z WHILE KAPF
TAF SITE WILL SEE VCTS AFTER 16Z.

CEILING AND VSBY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR ALL
OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...KAPF TAF SITE MIGHT NEED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THE CEILING AND VIS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
GOOD POINTING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...OUTSIDE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR SO WITH SEAS BELOW 2 FT. LOCALLY ROUGHY
SEAS MAY BE CAUSED BY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  90  78 /  20   0  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  81  90  81 /  20   0  30  20
MIAMI            91  79  91  79 /  30   0  30  10
NAPLES           91  77  91  77 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 240809
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
409 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A REDUCTION IN RAIN CHANCES. LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF FLORIDA MAY LEAD TO A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
TEMPERATURES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE QUITE WARM...AVERAGING 80F IN
THE METROPOLITAN AREAS. YESTERDAYS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AT KMIA
WAS 79F...WHICH TIED FOR THE WARMEST LOW TEMPERATURE OF THE YEAR
SO FAR. TODAYS LOW WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SIMILAR. DEEP LAYER
BERMUDA RIDGE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING WESTWARD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THIS SHOULD REDUCE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE FURTHER...ALTHOUGH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED
TO FOCUS ALONG SEA- BREEZE BOUNDARIES BY MIDDAY...FOCUSING MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. ON FRIDAY...SUBTLE
WEAKNESS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST JUST
WEST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT AND OVERALL
INSTABILITY WILL ENHANCE SLIGHTLY. LITTLE TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION BESIDES SEA- BREEZES...BUT ACTIVITY MAY STILL MANAGE TO
BE A BIT MORE ORGANIZED AND NUMEROUS WHERE THE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE. THEREAFTER...THE DEEP RIDGE
BUILDS FURTHER OVER FLORIDA AND UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED
OVER THE PENINSULA FOR THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
NORMAL FOR MAXIMA AND SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MINIMA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN ANOMOLOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH NORTHERNMOST FLORIDA AS EARLY AS MONDAY...AND MAY
GRADUALLY INCH TOWARD CENTRAL FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WHAT
APPEARS MOST LIKELY FOR SOUTH FLORIDA IS A VEERING OF OVERALL
WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A BIT WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF...AS WELL AS THE FOCUS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING FROM THE INTERIOR TO CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST. THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...AS THIS COULD SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE
POPS AS MID-WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 15Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL ALSO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 16Z THEN SWING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AS
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL REDUCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL HAVE ONLY VCSH IN FOR TODAY AFTER 15Z WHILE KAPF
TAF SITE WILL SEE VCTS AFTER 16Z.

CEILING AND VSBY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR ALL
OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...KAPF TAF SITE MIGHT NEED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR THE CEILING AND VIS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
GOOD POINTING CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE WEEKEND...OUTSIDE
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. GENERALLY...WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST AT 10 KTS OR SO WITH SEAS BELOW 2 FT. LOCALLY ROUGHY
SEAS MAY BE CAUSED BY GUSTY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  90  78 /  20   0  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  81  90  81 /  20   0  30  20
MIAMI            91  79  91  79 /  30   0  30  10
NAPLES           91  77  91  77 /  40  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 240519 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
119 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 15Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL ALSO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 16Z THEN SWING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AS
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL REDUCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL HAVE ONLY VCSH IN FOR TODAY AFTER 15Z WHILE KAPF
TAF SITE WILL SEE VCTS AFTER 16Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR
ALL OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...KAPF TAF SITE MIGHT NEED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THE CEILING AND VIS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA...NO MAJOR
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS
ON TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&
85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MASS PUSHING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. STILL KEPT VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES
AFTER 18Z EXCEPT FOR KFXE AND KPBI BUT BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL BE
ISOLATED AND IN SHORT DURATION.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SOMEWHAT OF AN INTERESTING PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, ATLANTIC RIDGE BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A DRYING TREND. THIS ALREADY EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING ALSO SUPPORTED THIS. CONVECTION WAS
ABLE TO GET AN EARLY START DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH 10-15K BUT IT IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE
DRYER AIR ALOFT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEN, A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI WILL GET SANDWICHED ON FRIDAY IN BETWEEN THE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL IN TURN
COOL THE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO AROUND -7C WHICH
IS BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY VERSUS THE -4.5C THIS
MORNING. SO EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, STORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIKELY BE MORE ROBUST AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BY SATURDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL FILL
IN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS EAST. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A MAJOR COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL ALL OF THIS
PLAY OUT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER NORTH FLORIDA. STILL, QUITE
IMPRESSIVE TO HAVE TWO SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACH THE STATE OF
FLORIDA IN THE MONTH OF JULY! EVEN IF IT IS NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. OF COURSE, IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
BECOMES AS TO HOW THIS REFLECTS ON THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
LAPSE RATES AND THEREFORE HOW ACTIVE OF A WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS. OF
COURSE, ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD CREATE LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  10  30  20  30
MIAMI            78  91  78  91 /  10  30  20  30
NAPLES           77  90  76  92 /  10  40  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 240519 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
119 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE BEFORE
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHEAST AFTER 15Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL ALSO REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE UNTIL 16Z THEN SWING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AS
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND.

DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY FROM THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL REDUCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS. THEREFORE...THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL HAVE ONLY VCSH IN FOR TODAY AFTER 15Z WHILE KAPF
TAF SITE WILL SEE VCTS AFTER 16Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY FOR
ALL OF THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...KAPF TAF SITE MIGHT NEED A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THE CEILING AND VIS LATER THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ONCE THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA...NO MAJOR
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS
ON TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&
85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MASS PUSHING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. STILL KEPT VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES
AFTER 18Z EXCEPT FOR KFXE AND KPBI BUT BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL BE
ISOLATED AND IN SHORT DURATION.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SOMEWHAT OF AN INTERESTING PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, ATLANTIC RIDGE BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A DRYING TREND. THIS ALREADY EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING ALSO SUPPORTED THIS. CONVECTION WAS
ABLE TO GET AN EARLY START DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH 10-15K BUT IT IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE
DRYER AIR ALOFT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEN, A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI WILL GET SANDWICHED ON FRIDAY IN BETWEEN THE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL IN TURN
COOL THE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO AROUND -7C WHICH
IS BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY VERSUS THE -4.5C THIS
MORNING. SO EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, STORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIKELY BE MORE ROBUST AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BY SATURDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL FILL
IN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS EAST. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A MAJOR COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL ALL OF THIS
PLAY OUT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER NORTH FLORIDA. STILL, QUITE
IMPRESSIVE TO HAVE TWO SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACH THE STATE OF
FLORIDA IN THE MONTH OF JULY! EVEN IF IT IS NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. OF COURSE, IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
BECOMES AS TO HOW THIS REFLECTS ON THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
LAPSE RATES AND THEREFORE HOW ACTIVE OF A WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS. OF
COURSE, ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD CREATE LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  77  90 /  10  30  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  10  30  20  30
MIAMI            78  91  78  91 /  10  30  20  30
NAPLES           77  90  76  92 /  10  40  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 240127
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
927 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA...NO MAJOR
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS
ON TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MASS PUSHING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. STILL KEPT VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES
AFTER 18Z EXCEPT FOR KFXE AND KPBI BUT BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL BE
ISOLATED AND IN SHORT DURATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SOMEWHAT OF AN INTERESTING PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, ATLANTIC RIDGE BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A DRYING TREND. THIS ALREADY EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING ALSO SUPPORTED THIS. CONVECTION WAS
ABLE TO GET AN EARLY START DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH 10-15K BUT IT IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE
DRYER AIR ALOFT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEN, A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI WILL GET SANDWICHED ON FRIDAY IN BETWEEN THE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL IN TURN
COOL THE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO AROUND -7C WHICH
IS BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY VERSUS THE -4.5C THIS
MORNING. SO EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, STORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIKELY BE MORE ROBUST AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BY SATURDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL FILL
IN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS EAST. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A MAJOR COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL ALL OF THIS
PLAY OUT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER NORTH FLORIDA. STILL, QUITE
IMPRESSIVE TO HAVE TWO SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACH THE STATE OF
FLORIDA IN THE MONTH OF JULY! EVEN IF IT IS NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. OF COURSE, IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
BECOMES AS TO HOW THIS REFLECTS ON THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
LAPSE RATES AND THEREFORE HOW ACTIVE OF A WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS. OF
COURSE, ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD CREATE LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  77  90 /  10  20  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  79  91 /  10  30  10  30
MIAMI            78  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  30
NAPLES           76  91  77  90 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 240127
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
927 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA...NO MAJOR
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS
ON TRACK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.

85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MASS PUSHING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. STILL KEPT VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES
AFTER 18Z EXCEPT FOR KFXE AND KPBI BUT BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL BE
ISOLATED AND IN SHORT DURATION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SOMEWHAT OF AN INTERESTING PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, ATLANTIC RIDGE BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A DRYING TREND. THIS ALREADY EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING ALSO SUPPORTED THIS. CONVECTION WAS
ABLE TO GET AN EARLY START DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH 10-15K BUT IT IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE
DRYER AIR ALOFT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEN, A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI WILL GET SANDWICHED ON FRIDAY IN BETWEEN THE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL IN TURN
COOL THE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO AROUND -7C WHICH
IS BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY VERSUS THE -4.5C THIS
MORNING. SO EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, STORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIKELY BE MORE ROBUST AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BY SATURDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL FILL
IN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS EAST. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A MAJOR COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL ALL OF THIS
PLAY OUT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER NORTH FLORIDA. STILL, QUITE
IMPRESSIVE TO HAVE TWO SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACH THE STATE OF
FLORIDA IN THE MONTH OF JULY! EVEN IF IT IS NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. OF COURSE, IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
BECOMES AS TO HOW THIS REFLECTS ON THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
LAPSE RATES AND THEREFORE HOW ACTIVE OF A WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS. OF
COURSE, ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD CREATE LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  77  90 /  10  20  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  79  91 /  10  30  10  30
MIAMI            78  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  30
NAPLES           76  91  77  90 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 240001
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
801 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MASS PUSHING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. STILL KEPT VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES
AFTER 18Z EXCEPT FOR KFXE AND KPBI BUT BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL BE
ISOLATED AND IN SHORT DURATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SOMEWHAT OF AN INTERESTING PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, ATLANTIC RIDGE BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A DRYING TREND. THIS ALREADY EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING ALSO SUPPORTED THIS. CONVECTION WAS
ABLE TO GET AN EARLY START DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH 10-15K BUT IT IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE
DRYER AIR ALOFT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEN, A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI WILL GET SANDWICHED ON FRIDAY IN BETWEEN THE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL IN TURN
COOL THE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO AROUND -7C WHICH
IS BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY VERSUS THE -4.5C THIS
MORNING. SO EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, STORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIKELY BE MORE ROBUST AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BY SATURDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL FILL
IN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS EAST. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A MAJOR COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL ALL OF THIS
PLAY OUT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER NORTH FLORIDA. STILL, QUITE
IMPRESSIVE TO HAVE TWO SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACH THE STATE OF
FLORIDA IN THE MONTH OF JULY! EVEN IF IT IS NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. OF COURSE, IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
BECOMES AS TO HOW THIS REFLECTS ON THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
LAPSE RATES AND THEREFORE HOW ACTIVE OF A WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS. OF
COURSE, ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD CREATE LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  77  90 /  10  20  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  79  91 /  10  30  10  30
MIAMI            78  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  30
NAPLES           76  91  77  90 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 240001
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
801 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT. LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MASS PUSHING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. STILL KEPT VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES
AFTER 18Z EXCEPT FOR KFXE AND KPBI BUT BELIEVE CONVECTION WILL BE
ISOLATED AND IN SHORT DURATION.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 205 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SOMEWHAT OF AN INTERESTING PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, ATLANTIC RIDGE BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A DRYING TREND. THIS ALREADY EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING ALSO SUPPORTED THIS. CONVECTION WAS
ABLE TO GET AN EARLY START DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH 10-15K BUT IT IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE
DRYER AIR ALOFT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEN, A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI WILL GET SANDWICHED ON FRIDAY IN BETWEEN THE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL IN TURN
COOL THE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO AROUND -7C WHICH
IS BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY VERSUS THE -4.5C THIS
MORNING. SO EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, STORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIKELY BE MORE ROBUST AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BY SATURDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL FILL
IN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS EAST. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A MAJOR COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL ALL OF THIS
PLAY OUT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER NORTH FLORIDA. STILL, QUITE
IMPRESSIVE TO HAVE TWO SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACH THE STATE OF
FLORIDA IN THE MONTH OF JULY! EVEN IF IT IS NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. OF COURSE, IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
BECOMES AS TO HOW THIS REFLECTS ON THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
LAPSE RATES AND THEREFORE HOW ACTIVE OF A WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS. OF
COURSE, ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD CREATE LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  77  90 /  10  20  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  79  91 /  10  30  10  30
MIAMI            78  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  30
NAPLES           76  91  77  90 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 231805
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SOMEWHAT OF AN INTERESTING PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, ATLANTIC RIDGE BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A DRYING TREND. THIS ALREADY EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING ALSO SUPPORTED THIS. CONVECTION WAS
ABLE TO GET AN EARLY START DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH 10-15K BUT IT IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE
DRYER AIR ALOFT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEN, A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI WILL GET SANDWICHED ON FRIDAY IN BETWEEN THE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL IN TURN
COOL THE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO AROUND -7C WHICH
IS BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY VERSUS THE -4.5C THIS
MORNING. SO EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, STORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIKELY BE MORE ROBUST AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BY SATURDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL FILL
IN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS EAST. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A MAJOR COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL ALL OF THIS
PLAY OUT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER NORTH FLORIDA. STILL, QUITE
IMPRESSIVE TO HAVE TWO SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACH THE STATE OF
FLORIDA IN THE MONTH OF JULY! EVEN IF IT IS NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. OF COURSE, IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
BECOMES AS TO HOW THIS REFLECTS ON THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
LAPSE RATES AND THEREFORE HOW ACTIVE OF A WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS. OF
COURSE, ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD CREATE LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  77  90 /  10  20  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  79  91 /  10  30  10  30
MIAMI            78  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  30
NAPLES           76  91  77  90 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231805
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
SOMEWHAT OF AN INTERESTING PATTERN WILL BE DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. BUT IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD, ATLANTIC RIDGE BOTH AT
THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH A DRYING TREND. THIS ALREADY EVIDENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE DRY AIR ALOFT PUSHING IN FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING ALSO SUPPORTED THIS. CONVECTION WAS
ABLE TO GET AN EARLY START DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY ALONG WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE THROUGH 10-15K BUT IT IS BEING SUPPRESSED BY THE
DRYER AIR ALOFT. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THEN, A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI WILL GET SANDWICHED ON FRIDAY IN BETWEEN THE HIGH
BUILDING IN FROM THE EAST AND ANOTHER BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL IN TURN
COOL THE 500MB TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO AROUND -7C WHICH
IS BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY VERSUS THE -4.5C THIS
MORNING. SO EVEN THOUGH THE COVERAGE MIGHT NOT CHANGE MUCH THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, STORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LIKELY BE MORE ROBUST AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRODUCING STRONG
AND GUSTY WINDS.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE INTERESTING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL BEGIN IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. BY SATURDAY, THE TROUGH OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WILL FILL
IN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST BUILDS EAST. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND WILL BEGIN TO CARVE OUT A MAJOR COUNTER-CLOCKWISE FLOW
ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SHOWING THIS OVERALL EVOLUTION OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT SEVEN
DAYS. THE QUESTION IS JUST HOW MUCH OF AN EFFECT WILL ALL OF THIS
PLAY OUT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GFS SHOWS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH TO REACH CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OVER NORTH FLORIDA. STILL, QUITE
IMPRESSIVE TO HAVE TWO SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARIES REACH THE STATE OF
FLORIDA IN THE MONTH OF JULY! EVEN IF IT IS NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. OF COURSE, IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
BECOMES AS TO HOW THIS REFLECTS ON THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
LAPSE RATES AND THEREFORE HOW ACTIVE OF A WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
A MOSTLY LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS. OF
COURSE, ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT COULD CREATE LOCALLY ROUGH
SEAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  77  90 /  10  20  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  79  91 /  10  30  10  30
MIAMI            78  90  78  91 /  10  30  10  30
NAPLES           76  91  77  90 /  10  30  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 231743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
143 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
RADAR IS SHOWING SIGNS THAT CONVECTION IS FINALLY PUSHING TO THE
WEST OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. SO HAVE PLACED TEMPO
FOR KPBI AND KFXE, AND LEFT VCTS IN FOR THE REMAINING EASTERN TAF
SITES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS,
EXCEPT WHEN THE SITES ARE BEING AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THEY MOVE OUT, CONDITIONS WILL
BE VFR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
PLAN TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS OVER AT LEAST THE
INTERIOR AS THEY SEEM A BIT HIGH BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING BOTH SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DRYING HAS OCCURRED ABOVE THE 500MB LEVEL. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH A PWAT OF JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AND WITH
DIURNAL HEATING BEGINNING IN EARNEST THIS MORNING ALREADY HAVE
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO REGION. LOOKING AT
THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, THE CAPE IS OVER 2000 J/KG, 500MB
TEMPERATURE WARMED TO 4.7C AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE IS NEAR
5.5C/KG. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND THE PWAT, THESE
NUMBERS ARE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE AND BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR MID/LATE
JULY. STILL, IT SEEMS THE HIGH PWAT AND CAPE ALONG WITH STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING WILL SOMEWHAT COUNTERACT THE OTHER LOW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. THE HRRR HAS BEGUN TO SHOW LESS OVERALL COVERAGE OVER
THE INTERIOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE 70-80% ORIGINALLY
ADVERTISED, SO WITH THE LESS THAN AMPLE PARAMETERS WILL ONLY LOWER
THE POPS SLIGHTLY UNTIL LATER TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SEA-BREEZE TO INDUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST COAST URBAN AREAS WHERE DRY AIR WILL
BE FIRST TO REACH. THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS RIDGE AXIS ORIENTS OVER
THE PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY FOCUSED OVER THE
INTERIOR WHERE SEA-BREEZES INTERACT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN TYPICAL OF
LATE JULY RAINY SEASON. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CONUS. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THESE
FEATURES FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT OVERALL
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY...AS OPPOSED TO
SOUTHEAST...MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD TOWARD EAST COAST
MORE. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO RESULT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT LIGHT
WINDS...SOUTH AT 10 KTS OR LESS...AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR
LESS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  78  90 /  10  20  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  81  91 /  10  30  10  30
MIAMI            79  91  78  91 /  20  30  10  30
NAPLES           76  91  77  92 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 231743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
143 PM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
RADAR IS SHOWING SIGNS THAT CONVECTION IS FINALLY PUSHING TO THE
WEST OF THE EASTERN TAF SITES. HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL A FEW
CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST. SO HAVE PLACED TEMPO
FOR KPBI AND KFXE, AND LEFT VCTS IN FOR THE REMAINING EASTERN TAF
SITES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS. EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS,
EXCEPT WHEN THE SITES ARE BEING AFFECTED BY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE THEY MOVE OUT, CONDITIONS WILL
BE VFR THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 947 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

UPDATE...
PLAN TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS OVER AT LEAST THE
INTERIOR AS THEY SEEM A BIT HIGH BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING BOTH SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DRYING HAS OCCURRED ABOVE THE 500MB LEVEL. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH A PWAT OF JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AND WITH
DIURNAL HEATING BEGINNING IN EARNEST THIS MORNING ALREADY HAVE
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO REGION. LOOKING AT
THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, THE CAPE IS OVER 2000 J/KG, 500MB
TEMPERATURE WARMED TO 4.7C AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE IS NEAR
5.5C/KG. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND THE PWAT, THESE
NUMBERS ARE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE AND BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR MID/LATE
JULY. STILL, IT SEEMS THE HIGH PWAT AND CAPE ALONG WITH STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING WILL SOMEWHAT COUNTERACT THE OTHER LOW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. THE HRRR HAS BEGUN TO SHOW LESS OVERALL COVERAGE OVER
THE INTERIOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE 70-80% ORIGINALLY
ADVERTISED, SO WITH THE LESS THAN AMPLE PARAMETERS WILL ONLY LOWER
THE POPS SLIGHTLY UNTIL LATER TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SEA-BREEZE TO INDUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST COAST URBAN AREAS WHERE DRY AIR WILL
BE FIRST TO REACH. THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS RIDGE AXIS ORIENTS OVER
THE PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY FOCUSED OVER THE
INTERIOR WHERE SEA-BREEZES INTERACT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN TYPICAL OF
LATE JULY RAINY SEASON. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CONUS. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THESE
FEATURES FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT OVERALL
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY...AS OPPOSED TO
SOUTHEAST...MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD TOWARD EAST COAST
MORE. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO RESULT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT LIGHT
WINDS...SOUTH AT 10 KTS OR LESS...AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR
LESS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  78  90 /  10  20  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  81  91 /  10  30  10  30
MIAMI            79  91  78  91 /  20  30  10  30
NAPLES           76  91  77  92 /  20  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231347
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
947 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
PLAN TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS OVER AT LEAST THE
INTERIOR AS THEY SEEM A BIT HIGH BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING BOTH SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DRYING HAS OCCURRED ABOVE THE 500MB LEVEL. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH A PWAT OF JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AND WITH
DIURNAL HEATING BEGINNING IN EARNEST THIS MORNING ALREADY HAVE
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO REGION. LOOKING AT
THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, THE CAPE IS OVER 2000 J/KG, 500MB
TEMPERATURE WARMED TO 4.7C AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE IS NEAR
5.5C/KG. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND THE PWAT, THESE
NUMBERS ARE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE AND BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR MID/LATE
JULY. STILL, IT SEEMS THE HIGH PWAT AND CAPE ALONG WITH STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING WILL SOMEWHAT COUNTERACT THE OTHER LOW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. THE HRRR HAS BEGUN TO SHOW LESS OVERALL COVERAGE OVER
THE INTERIOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE 70-80% ORIGINALLY
ADVERTISED, SO WITH THE LESS THAN AMPLE PARAMETERS WILL ONLY LOWER
THE POPS SLIGHTLY UNTIL LATER TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
INTERIOR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DID KEEP VCTS IN THE TAFS UNTIL
AROUND 10Z FOR THE EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS. KAPF MAY SEE A LONGER
DURATION OF IMPACT FROM CONVECTION, SO KEPT THE VCTS IN UNTIL
23Z. SO, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE DUE TO
ANY SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. THE
WIND WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN, BY LATE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SEA-BREEZE TO INDUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST COAST URBAN AREAS WHERE DRY AIR WILL
BE FIRST TO REACH. THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS RIDGE AXIS ORIENTS OVER
THE PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY FOCUSED OVER THE
INTERIOR WHERE SEA-BREEZES INTERACT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN TYPICAL OF
LATE JULY RAINY SEASON. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CONUS. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THESE
FEATURES FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT OVERALL
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY...AS OPPOSED TO
SOUTHEAST...MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD TOWARD EAST COAST
MORE. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO RESULT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT LIGHT
WINDS...SOUTH AT 10 KTS OR LESS...AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR
LESS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  90  78 /  40  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  80  90  81 /  30  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  79  91  78 /  40  20  30  10
NAPLES           91  76  91  77 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 231347
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
947 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
PLAN TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POPS OVER AT LEAST THE
INTERIOR AS THEY SEEM A BIT HIGH BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING BOTH SHOW SIGNIFICANT
DRYING HAS OCCURRED ABOVE THE 500MB LEVEL. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS
REMAIN QUITE MOIST WITH A PWAT OF JUST UNDER 2 INCHES AND WITH
DIURNAL HEATING BEGINNING IN EARNEST THIS MORNING ALREADY HAVE
CONVECTION FIRING ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO REGION. LOOKING AT
THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS, THE CAPE IS OVER 2000 J/KG, 500MB
TEMPERATURE WARMED TO 4.7C AND THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE IS NEAR
5.5C/KG. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CAPE AND THE PWAT, THESE
NUMBERS ARE VERY UNIMPRESSIVE AND BELOW THE AVERAGE FOR MID/LATE
JULY. STILL, IT SEEMS THE HIGH PWAT AND CAPE ALONG WITH STRONG
DIURNAL HEATING WILL SOMEWHAT COUNTERACT THE OTHER LOW CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS. THE HRRR HAS BEGUN TO SHOW LESS OVERALL COVERAGE OVER
THE INTERIOR FOR THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE 70-80% ORIGINALLY
ADVERTISED, SO WITH THE LESS THAN AMPLE PARAMETERS WILL ONLY LOWER
THE POPS SLIGHTLY UNTIL LATER TRENDS DICTATE OTHERWISE.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
INTERIOR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DID KEEP VCTS IN THE TAFS UNTIL
AROUND 10Z FOR THE EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS. KAPF MAY SEE A LONGER
DURATION OF IMPACT FROM CONVECTION, SO KEPT THE VCTS IN UNTIL
23Z. SO, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE DUE TO
ANY SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. THE
WIND WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN, BY LATE EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SEA-BREEZE TO INDUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST COAST URBAN AREAS WHERE DRY AIR WILL
BE FIRST TO REACH. THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS RIDGE AXIS ORIENTS OVER
THE PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY FOCUSED OVER THE
INTERIOR WHERE SEA-BREEZES INTERACT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN TYPICAL OF
LATE JULY RAINY SEASON. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CONUS. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THESE
FEATURES FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT OVERALL
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY...AS OPPOSED TO
SOUTHEAST...MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD TOWARD EAST COAST
MORE. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO RESULT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT LIGHT
WINDS...SOUTH AT 10 KTS OR LESS...AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR
LESS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  90  78 /  40  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  80  90  81 /  30  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  79  91  78 /  40  20  30  10
NAPLES           91  76  91  77 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231140
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
INTERIOR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DID KEEP VCTS IN THE TAFS UNTIL
AROUND 10Z FOR THE EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS. KAPF MAY SEE A LONGER
DURATION OF IMPACT FROM CONVECTION, SO KEPT THE VCTS IN UNTIL
23Z. SO, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE DUE TO
ANY SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. THE
WIND WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN, BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SEA-BREEZE TO INDUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST COAST URBAN AREAS WHERE DRY AIR WILL
BE FIRST TO REACH. THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS RIDGE AXIS ORIENTS OVER
THE PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY FOCUSED OVER THE
INTERIOR WHERE SEA-BREEZES INTERACT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN TYPICAL OF
LATE JULY RAINY SEASON. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CONUS. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THESE
FEATURES FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT OVERALL
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY...AS OPPOSED TO
SOUTHEAST...MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD TOWARD EAST COAST
MORE. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO RESULT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT LIGHT
WINDS...SOUTH AT 10 KTS OR LESS...AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR
LESS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  90  78 /  40  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  80  90  81 /  30  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  79  91  78 /  40  20  30  10
NAPLES           91  76  91  77 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 231140
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE AREA FROM THE
EAST. THIS WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO PUSH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
INTERIOR BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. DID KEEP VCTS IN THE TAFS UNTIL
AROUND 10Z FOR THE EASTERN TAF LOCATIONS. KAPF MAY SEE A LONGER
DURATION OF IMPACT FROM CONVECTION, SO KEPT THE VCTS IN UNTIL
23Z. SO, GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE DUE TO
ANY SHOWERS AND OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVE OVER THE TAF SITES. THE
WIND WILL GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN, BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SEA-BREEZE TO INDUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST COAST URBAN AREAS WHERE DRY AIR WILL
BE FIRST TO REACH. THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS RIDGE AXIS ORIENTS OVER
THE PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY FOCUSED OVER THE
INTERIOR WHERE SEA-BREEZES INTERACT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN TYPICAL OF
LATE JULY RAINY SEASON. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CONUS. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THESE
FEATURES FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT OVERALL
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY...AS OPPOSED TO
SOUTHEAST...MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD TOWARD EAST COAST
MORE. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO RESULT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT LIGHT
WINDS...SOUTH AT 10 KTS OR LESS...AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR
LESS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  90  78 /  40  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  80  90  81 /  30  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  79  91  78 /  40  20  30  10
NAPLES           91  76  91  77 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 230800
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SEA-BREEZE TO INDUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST COAST URBAN AREAS WHERE DRY AIR WILL
BE FIRST TO REACH. THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS RIDGE AXIS ORIENTS OVER
THE PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY FOCUSED OVER THE
INTERIOR WHERE SEA-BREEZES INTERACT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN TYPICAL OF
LATE JULY RAINY SEASON. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CONUS. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THESE
FEATURES FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT OVERALL
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY...AS OPPOSED TO
SOUTHEAST...MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD TOWARD EAST COAST
MORE. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TODAY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF SITE WITH THE WIND FLOW
WILL BE WESTERLY AFTER 16Z DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND. DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO
ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZE TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES AFTER 15Z TODAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES IS UNKNOWN. THEREFORE...THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP AROUND THE TAF SITES
THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED FOR THE CEILING AND VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT LIGHT
WINDS...SOUTH AT 10 KTS OR LESS...AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR
LESS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  90  78 /  40  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  80  90  81 /  30  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  79  91  78 /  30  20  30  10
NAPLES           91  76  91  77 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 230800
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SLIGHT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL
GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TODAY...WITH DRIER AIR SPILLING NORTHWARD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE FOR SEA-BREEZE TO INDUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS...ESPECIALLY OVER EAST COAST URBAN AREAS WHERE DRY AIR WILL
BE FIRST TO REACH. THIS DRIER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...AS RIDGE AXIS ORIENTS OVER
THE PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LOWER THAN NORMAL BOTH
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND SHOULD BE MOSTLY FOCUSED OVER THE
INTERIOR WHERE SEA-BREEZES INTERACT.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
SCATTERED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD THAN TYPICAL OF
LATE JULY RAINY SEASON. EARLY NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL DIG INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST CONUS. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP THESE
FEATURES FROM HAVING MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT OVERALL
WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY...AS OPPOSED TO
SOUTHEAST...MAY ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO SPREAD TOWARD EAST COAST
MORE. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TODAY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF SITE WITH THE WIND FLOW
WILL BE WESTERLY AFTER 16Z DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND. DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO
ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZE TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES AFTER 15Z TODAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES IS UNKNOWN. THEREFORE...THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP AROUND THE TAF SITES
THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED FOR THE CEILING AND VIS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE WATERS WILL RESULT LIGHT
WINDS...SOUTH AT 10 KTS OR LESS...AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR
LESS...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD
THAN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...BUT SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  90  78 /  40  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  80  90  81 /  30  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  79  91  78 /  30  20  30  10
NAPLES           91  76  91  77 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 230546 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TODAY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF SITE WITH THE WIND FLOW
WILL BE WESTERLY AFTER 16Z DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND. DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO
ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZE TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES AFTER 15Z TODAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES IS UNKNOWN. THEREFORE...THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP AROUND THE TAF SITES
THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED FOR THE CEILING AND VIS.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

UPDATE...
THE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHED EARLIER
WITH VERY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN REFLECTS THIS
TREND...HOWEVER...DOES INDICATE SOME ISLTD/SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE LOWS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK THIS
EVENING WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

&&
85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
SITES OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PLACED VCTS IN AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z-16Z
TOMORROW ALTHOUGH BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST AS A GULF BREEZE SHOULD
DEVELOP.

**
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM YESTERDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS SITTING OVER THE MOBILE ALABAMA AREA, AND AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CONTINUED
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND THE
HIGH STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT AND BUILDING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE
TOMORROW WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR, WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PROBABILITY EACH DAY, AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND THE HIGH
GRADUALLY BUILDS.

LONG TERM...
BERMUDA RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATLANTIC AIR WILL REGULATE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BIT BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES...HIGHEST OVER INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MAXIMA WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY...MAINLY LOWER 90S...WITH MINIMA A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80F
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THE FLOW BEING
RELATIVELY LIGHT, SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  79  91 /  20  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  91  82  91 /  20  20  20  30
MIAMI            80  91  80  91 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  92  77  92 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 230546 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 AM EDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 15Z TODAY.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF SITE WITH THE WIND FLOW
WILL BE WESTERLY AFTER 16Z DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHING INLAND. DRIER AIR IS STARTING TO WORK INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO
ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZE TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE VCTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES AFTER 15Z TODAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
AFFECT THE TAF SITES IS UNKNOWN. THEREFORE...THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...WHEN THE THUNDERSTORMS DO DEVELOP AROUND THE TAF SITES
THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED FOR THE CEILING AND VIS.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

UPDATE...
THE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHED EARLIER
WITH VERY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN REFLECTS THIS
TREND...HOWEVER...DOES INDICATE SOME ISLTD/SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE LOWS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK THIS
EVENING WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

&&
85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
SITES OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PLACED VCTS IN AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z-16Z
TOMORROW ALTHOUGH BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST AS A GULF BREEZE SHOULD
DEVELOP.

**
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM YESTERDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS SITTING OVER THE MOBILE ALABAMA AREA, AND AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CONTINUED
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND THE
HIGH STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT AND BUILDING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE
TOMORROW WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR, WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PROBABILITY EACH DAY, AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND THE HIGH
GRADUALLY BUILDS.

LONG TERM...
BERMUDA RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATLANTIC AIR WILL REGULATE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BIT BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES...HIGHEST OVER INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MAXIMA WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY...MAINLY LOWER 90S...WITH MINIMA A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80F
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THE FLOW BEING
RELATIVELY LIGHT, SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  79  91 /  20  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  91  82  91 /  20  20  20  30
MIAMI            80  91  80  91 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  92  77  92 /  20  40  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 230137
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIMINISHED EARLIER
WITH VERY QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN REFLECTS THIS
TREND...HOWEVER...DOES INDICATE SOME ISLTD/SCT ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA FOR THE LOWS. OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK THIS
EVENING WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
SITES OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PLACED VCTS IN AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z-16Z
TOMORROW ALTHOUGH BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST AS A GULF BREEZE SHOULD
DEVELOP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM YESTERDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS SITTING OVER THE MOBILE ALABAMA AREA, AND AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CONTINUED
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND THE
HIGH STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT AND BUILDING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE
TOMORROW WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR, WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PROBABILITY EACH DAY, AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND THE HIGH
GRADUALLY BUILDS.

LONG TERM...
BERMUDA RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATLANTIC AIR WILL REGULATE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BIT BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES...HIGHEST OVER INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MAXIMA WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY...MAINLY LOWER 90S...WITH MINIMA A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80F
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THE FLOW BEING
RELATIVELY LIGHT, SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  90  78  91 /  30  60  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  82  91 /  30  60  20  20
MIAMI            77  91  80  91 /  20  60  20  30
NAPLES           76  91  76  92 /  10  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 222338
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
SITES OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PLACED VCTS IN AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z-16Z
TOMORROW ALTHOUGH BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST AS A GULF BREEZE SHOULD
DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM YESTERDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS SITTING OVER THE MOBILE ALABAMA AREA, AND AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CONTINUED
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND THE
HIGH STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT AND BUILDING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE
TOMORROW WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR, WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PROBABILITY EACH DAY, AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND THE HIGH
GRADUALLY BUILDS.

LONG TERM...
BERMUDA RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATLANTIC AIR WILL REGULATE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BIT BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES...HIGHEST OVER INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MAXIMA WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY...MAINLY LOWER 90S...WITH MINIMA A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80F
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THE FLOW BEING
RELATIVELY LIGHT, SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  90  78  91 /  30  60  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  82  91 /  30  60  20  20
MIAMI            77  91  80  91 /  20  60  20  30
NAPLES           76  91  76  92 /  20  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 222338
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL
SITES OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS SHOULD BE MAINLY LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW RETURNS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. PLACED VCTS IN AT ALL SITES AFTER 15Z-16Z
TOMORROW ALTHOUGH BELIEVE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST AS A GULF BREEZE SHOULD
DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM YESTERDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS SITTING OVER THE MOBILE ALABAMA AREA, AND AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CONTINUED
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND THE
HIGH STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT AND BUILDING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE
TOMORROW WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR, WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PROBABILITY EACH DAY, AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND THE HIGH
GRADUALLY BUILDS.

LONG TERM...
BERMUDA RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATLANTIC AIR WILL REGULATE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BIT BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES...HIGHEST OVER INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MAXIMA WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY...MAINLY LOWER 90S...WITH MINIMA A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80F
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THE FLOW BEING
RELATIVELY LIGHT, SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  90  78  91 /  30  60  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  82  91 /  30  60  20  20
MIAMI            77  91  80  91 /  20  60  20  30
NAPLES           76  91  76  92 /  20  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 221830
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM YESTERDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS SITTING OVER THE MOBILE ALABAMA AREA, AND AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CONTINUED
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND THE
HIGH STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT AND BUILDING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE
TOMORROW WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR, WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PROBABILITY EACH DAY, AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND THE HIGH
GRADUALLY BUILDS.


&&

.LONG TERM...
BERMUDA RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATLANTIC AIR WILL REGULATE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BIT BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES...HIGHEST OVER INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MAXIMA WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY...MAINLY LOWER 90S...WITH MINIMA A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80F
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF POSSIBLE BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE
KAPF AREA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THE FLOW BEING
RELATIVELY LIGHT, SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  90  78  91 /  30  60  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  82  91 /  30  60  20  20
MIAMI            77  91  80  91 /  20  60  20  30
NAPLES           76  91  76  92 /  30  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221830
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
230 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM YESTERDAY. A LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS SITTING OVER THE MOBILE ALABAMA AREA, AND AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SITUATED TO THE EAST. THIS HAS CONTINUED
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH HAS MAINTAINED
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DWINDLE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW WEAKENING AND THE
HIGH STRENGTHENING SOMEWHAT AND BUILDING SLOWLY WESTWARD. THIS
WILL KEEP A GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WHILE
TOMORROW WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY, THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY LOOK TO BE MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR, WITH SLIGHTLY
LOWER PROBABILITY EACH DAY, AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND THE HIGH
GRADUALLY BUILDS.


&&

.LONG TERM...
BERMUDA RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATLANTIC AIR WILL REGULATE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BIT BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES...HIGHEST OVER INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MAXIMA WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY...MAINLY LOWER 90S...WITH MINIMA A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80F
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF POSSIBLE BRIEF REDUCTIONS DUE TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY. FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THAT LOOKS TO BE MAINLY IN THE
KAPF AREA. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TONIGHT.
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WITH
THE CENTER OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WITH THE FLOW BEING
RELATIVELY LIGHT, SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. HOWEVER, THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY ROUGH
CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  90  78  91 /  30  60  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  82  91 /  30  60  20  20
MIAMI            77  91  80  91 /  20  60  20  30
NAPLES           76  91  76  92 /  30  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 220746
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
346 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. DRIER AIR AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER DEEP SOUTH TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS DEEP LAYER BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. STILL PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TROUGH...SO POPS ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES AGAIN FOR TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF WESTWARD-MOVING WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ORIENTED OVER
WESTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST
OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SEA BREEZES INTRUDE AND FOCUS ACTIVITY MORE
INLAND. SINCE LITTLE/NO AIR-MASS CHANGE FROM LAST
DAYS...PERSISTENCE WARRANTS MENTIONING URBAN FLOOD AND POSSIBLE
STRONG MICROBURST /50 MPH MAX/ POTENTIAL TODAY.

BY TONIGHT...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST...PWAT VALUES DROP TO BELOW 2 INCHES...NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. EXPECT THIS DRYING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM...THUS POPS DECREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ALONG
SEA- BREEZE BOUNDARIES...YIELDING HIGHEST SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BERMUDA RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATLANTIC AIR WILL REGULATE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BIT BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES...HIGHEST OVER INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MAXIMA WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY...MAINLY LOWER 90S...WITH MINIMA A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80F
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 10Z BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...WHILE AT KAPF
TAF SITE THE WINDS WILL SWING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 10Z
THIS MORNING BEFORE SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE
TAF STIES. ONCE THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
PUSHES INLAND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SO WILL
KEEP THE VCTS IN THE FORECAST FROM 15/16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES.

THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES ARE UNKNOWN. SO WILL KEEP THE CEILING AND VIS IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS ON THIS TAF SITE PACKAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE WEATHER TO SEE IF TEMPOS WILL BE NEEDED FOR REDUCE VIS AND
CEILING CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
AWAY FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN THIS WEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10
KTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FEET OR LESS. MAIN CONCERN AROUND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE WATERSPOUTS...MOSTLY LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COASTS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  90  78 /  60  40  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  90  81 /  60  40  40  20
MIAMI            90  78  90  78 /  60  40  50  20
NAPLES           90  76  91  77 /  60  30  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220746
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
346 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP MOISTURE AND LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL
BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TODAY. DRIER AIR AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY...A TREND THAT
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER DEEP SOUTH TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS DEEP LAYER BERMUDA RIDGE BUILDS TOWARD THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. STILL PLENTY OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BEING PULLED
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE TROUGH...SO POPS ARE ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES AGAIN FOR TODAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE AIDED BY NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF WESTWARD-MOVING WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ORIENTED OVER
WESTERN CUBA THIS MORNING. OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST
OVER THE INTERIOR...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST...PARTICULARLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH MID-
AFTERNOON...BEFORE SEA BREEZES INTRUDE AND FOCUS ACTIVITY MORE
INLAND. SINCE LITTLE/NO AIR-MASS CHANGE FROM LAST
DAYS...PERSISTENCE WARRANTS MENTIONING URBAN FLOOD AND POSSIBLE
STRONG MICROBURST /50 MPH MAX/ POTENTIAL TODAY.

BY TONIGHT...DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
EAST...PWAT VALUES DROP TO BELOW 2 INCHES...NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE
JULY. EXPECT THIS DRYING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE SHORT TERM...THUS POPS DECREASE TO 30-50 PERCENT RANGE FOR
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE FOCUSED ALONG
SEA- BREEZE BOUNDARIES...YIELDING HIGHEST SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BERMUDA RIDGE AND RELATIVELY DRY ATLANTIC AIR WILL REGULATE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN A BIT BELOW NORMAL RAIN
CHANCES...HIGHEST OVER INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. MAXIMA WILL
BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR LATE JULY...MAINLY LOWER 90S...WITH MINIMA A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...RANGING FROM MID 70S TO AROUND 80F
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 10Z BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...WHILE AT KAPF
TAF SITE THE WINDS WILL SWING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 10Z
THIS MORNING BEFORE SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE
TAF STIES. ONCE THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
PUSHES INLAND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SO WILL
KEEP THE VCTS IN THE FORECAST FROM 15/16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES.

THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES ARE UNKNOWN. SO WILL KEEP THE CEILING AND VIS IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS ON THIS TAF SITE PACKAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE WEATHER TO SEE IF TEMPOS WILL BE NEEDED FOR REDUCE VIS AND
CEILING CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&

.MARINE...
AWAY FROM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN THIS WEEK. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10
KTS WITH SEAS GENERALLY 3 FEET OR LESS. MAIN CONCERN AROUND SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE WATERSPOUTS...MOSTLY LIKELY CLOSER TO THE COASTS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  90  78 /  60  40  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  90  81 /  60  40  40  20
MIAMI            90  78  90  78 /  60  40  50  20
NAPLES           90  76  91  77 /  60  30  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 220530 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 10Z BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...WHILE AT KAPF
TAF SITE THE WINDS WILL SWING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 10Z
THIS MORNING BEFORE SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE
TAF STIES. ONCE THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
PUSHES INLAND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SO WILL
KEEP THE VCTS IN THE FORECAST FROM 15/16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES.

THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES ARE UNKNOWN. SO WILL KEEP THE CEILING AND VIS IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS ON THIS TAF SITE PACKAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE WEATHER TO SEE IF TEMPO`S WILL BE NEEDED FOR REDUCE VIS AND
CEILING CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...

THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE PWAT JUST SHY OF 2.3 INCHES. RECENT
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND JUST LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS SUBSIDED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS EVENING...A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD
SOUTH OF CUBA AND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE COULD STILL
PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE OVER NIGHT
HOURS FOR THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS WELL.

&&
60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THAT SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...ADDED VCSH AFTER 06Z. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IT COULD DISRUPT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY NEAR THE EAST COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS AFTER 14Z DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT TEMPO
GROUPS WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES
ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAS BROUGHT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DIG TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DEEPEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SHOWERS TO PROGRESS TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY
GARDEN VARIETY TYPE, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WIND. OF
COURSE, CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS HERE IN FLORIDA
EITHER, BUT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED, IF ANYTHING.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR AND LAKE
REGIONS TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL TYPE OF
ACTIVITY. 500MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY WARM, WITH MODELS SHOWING AROUND -6C. SO CONTINUED
INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PWAT VALUE FALLING DOWN TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT VALUE OF 1.85 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LESS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION POPS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.

THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
VERY WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND 16Z WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE VERY WEAK SO PLACED
TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MOSTLY VFR IS
ANTICIPATED. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR
BTWN 17-20Z BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE INTERIOR.

MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEK, SEA MAY SLIGHTLY BUILD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE
ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS,
GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS, MAINLY IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  79  91 /  40  60  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  82  90 /  50  60  30  20
MIAMI            78  90  80  91 /  40  60  20  20
NAPLES           76  91  76  92 /  40  50  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220530 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 AM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH 10Z BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. THE
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...WHILE AT KAPF
TAF SITE THE WINDS WILL SWING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH 10Z
THIS MORNING BEFORE SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE
TAF STIES. ONCE THE SEA BREEZES DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND
PUSHES INLAND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. SO WILL
KEEP THE VCTS IN THE FORECAST FROM 15/16Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES.

THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT THE TAF
SITES ARE UNKNOWN. SO WILL KEEP THE CEILING AND VIS IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS ON THIS TAF SITE PACKAGE...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE WEATHER TO SEE IF TEMPO`S WILL BE NEEDED FOR REDUCE VIS AND
CEILING CONDITIONS OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 905 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

UPDATE...

THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE PWAT JUST SHY OF 2.3 INCHES. RECENT
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND JUST LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS SUBSIDED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS EVENING...A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD
SOUTH OF CUBA AND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE COULD STILL
PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE OVER NIGHT
HOURS FOR THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS WELL.

&&
60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THAT SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...ADDED VCSH AFTER 06Z. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IT COULD DISRUPT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY NEAR THE EAST COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS AFTER 14Z DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT TEMPO
GROUPS WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES
ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAS BROUGHT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DIG TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DEEPEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SHOWERS TO PROGRESS TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY
GARDEN VARIETY TYPE, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WIND. OF
COURSE, CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS HERE IN FLORIDA
EITHER, BUT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED, IF ANYTHING.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR AND LAKE
REGIONS TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL TYPE OF
ACTIVITY. 500MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY WARM, WITH MODELS SHOWING AROUND -6C. SO CONTINUED
INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PWAT VALUE FALLING DOWN TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT VALUE OF 1.85 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LESS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION POPS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.

THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
VERY WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND 16Z WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE VERY WEAK SO PLACED
TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MOSTLY VFR IS
ANTICIPATED. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR
BTWN 17-20Z BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE INTERIOR.

MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEK, SEA MAY SLIGHTLY BUILD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE
ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS,
GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS, MAINLY IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  79  91 /  40  60  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  82  90 /  50  60  30  20
MIAMI            78  90  80  91 /  40  60  20  20
NAPLES           76  91  76  92 /  40  50  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 220105
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
905 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE PWAT JUST SHY OF 2.3 INCHES. RECENT
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND JUST LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS SUBSIDED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS EVENING...A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD
SOUTH OF CUBA AND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE COULD STILL
PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE OVER NIGHT
HOURS FOR THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS WELL.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THAT SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...ADDED VCSH AFTER 06Z. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IT COULD DISRUPT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY NEAR THE EAST COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS AFTER 14Z DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT TEMPO
GROUPS WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES
ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAS BROUGHT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DIG TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DEEPEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SHOWERS TO PROGRESS TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY
GARDEN VARIETY TYPE, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WIND. OF
COURSE, CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS HERE IN FLORIDA
EITHER, BUT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED, IF ANYTHING.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR AND LAKE
REGIONS TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL TYPE OF
ACTIVITY. 500MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY WARM, WITH MODELS SHOWING AROUND -6C. SO CONTINUED
INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PWAT VALUE FALLING DOWN TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT VALUE OF 1.85 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LESS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION POPS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.

THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
VERY WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND 16Z WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE VERY WEAK SO PLACED
TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MOSTLY VFR IS
ANTICIPATED. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR
BTWN 17-20Z BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE INTERIOR.

MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEK, SEA MAY SLIGHTLY BUILD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE
ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS,
GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS, MAINLY IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  89  77  90 /  40  70  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  90 /  40  70  50  60
MIAMI            76  91  78  90 /  30  70  40  60
NAPLES           76  91  76  91 /  40  60  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 220105
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
905 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...

THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE PWAT JUST SHY OF 2.3 INCHES. RECENT
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND JUST LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NOTED ACROSS THE
NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS.

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS SUBSIDED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS EVENING...A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD
SOUTH OF CUBA AND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE WAVE COULD STILL
PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST DURING THE OVER NIGHT
HOURS FOR THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ALSO POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AS WELL.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THAT SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...ADDED VCSH AFTER 06Z. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IT COULD DISRUPT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY NEAR THE EAST COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS AFTER 14Z DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT TEMPO
GROUPS WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES
ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAS BROUGHT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DIG TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DEEPEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SHOWERS TO PROGRESS TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY
GARDEN VARIETY TYPE, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WIND. OF
COURSE, CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS HERE IN FLORIDA
EITHER, BUT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED, IF ANYTHING.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR AND LAKE
REGIONS TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL TYPE OF
ACTIVITY. 500MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY WARM, WITH MODELS SHOWING AROUND -6C. SO CONTINUED
INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PWAT VALUE FALLING DOWN TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT VALUE OF 1.85 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LESS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION POPS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.

THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
VERY WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND 16Z WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE VERY WEAK SO PLACED
TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MOSTLY VFR IS
ANTICIPATED. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR
BTWN 17-20Z BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE INTERIOR.

MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEK, SEA MAY SLIGHTLY BUILD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE
ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS,
GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS, MAINLY IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  89  77  90 /  40  70  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  90 /  40  70  50  60
MIAMI            76  91  78  90 /  30  70  40  60
NAPLES           76  91  76  91 /  40  60  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 212332
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE WINDING DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING THAT SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY STORMS MAY REDEVELOP OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...ADDED VCSH AFTER 06Z. IF SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT...IT COULD DISRUPT THE NORMAL DIURNAL
CYCLE...WITH NOT MUCH ACTIVITY NEAR THE EAST COAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. KEPT VCTS AFTER 14Z DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT TEMPO
GROUPS WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED FOR MANY OF THE TAF SITES
ON TUESDAY. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAS BROUGHT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DIG TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DEEPEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SHOWERS TO PROGRESS TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY
GARDEN VARIETY TYPE, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WIND. OF
COURSE, CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS HERE IN FLORIDA
EITHER, BUT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED, IF ANYTHING.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR AND LAKE
REGIONS TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL TYPE OF
ACTIVITY. 500MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY WARM, WITH MODELS SHOWING AROUND -6C. SO CONTINUED
INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PWAT VALUE FALLING DOWN TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT VALUE OF 1.85 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LESS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION POPS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.

THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
VERY WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND 16Z WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE VERY WEAK SO PLACED
TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MOSTLY VFR IS
ANTICIPATED. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR
BTWN 17-20Z BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE INTERIOR.

MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEK, SEA MAY SLIGHTLY BUILD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE
ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS,
GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS, MAINLY IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  89  77  90 /  50  70  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  90 /  50  70  50  60
MIAMI            76  91  78  90 /  50  70  40  60
NAPLES           76  91  76  91 /  60  60  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211846
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
246 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAS BROUGHT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DIG TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DEEPEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SHOWERS TO PROGRESS TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY
GARDEN VARIETY TYPE, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WIND. OF
COURSE, CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS HERE IN FLORIDA
EITHER, BUT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED, IF ANYTHING.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR AND LAKE
REGIONS TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL TYPE OF
ACTIVITY. 500MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY WARM, WITH MODELS SHOWING AROUND -6C. SO CONTINUED
INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PWAT VALUE FALLING DOWN TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT VALUE OF 1.85 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LESS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION POPS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.

THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND 16Z WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE VERY WEAK SO PLACED
TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MOSTLY VFR IS
ANTICIPATED. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR
BTWN 17-20Z BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEK, SEA MAY SLIGHTLY BUILD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE
ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS,
GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS, MAINLY IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  89  77  90 /  50  70  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  90 /  50  70  50  60
MIAMI            76  91  78  90 /  50  70  40  60
NAPLES           76  91  76  91 /  60  60  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 211846
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
246 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA HAS BROUGHT INCREASED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY TO SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THIS HAS ALLOWED
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW IS PROGGED TO DIG TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND DEEPEN SOMEWHAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SHOWERS TO PROGRESS TO THE WEST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY
GARDEN VARIETY TYPE, WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WIND. OF
COURSE, CANT RULE OUT A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS HERE IN FLORIDA
EITHER, BUT THEY SHOULD BE ISOLATED, IF ANYTHING.

THE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS AN UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE BAHAMAS. THIS SHOULD HELP TO
KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR AND LAKE
REGIONS TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH MOSTLY DIURNAL TYPE OF
ACTIVITY. 500MB TEMPERATURES THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK, LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY WARM, WITH MODELS SHOWING AROUND -6C. SO CONTINUED
INSTABILITY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PWAT VALUE FALLING DOWN TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT VALUE OF 1.85 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LESS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION POPS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.

THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND 16Z WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE VERY WEAK SO PLACED
TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MOSTLY VFR IS
ANTICIPATED. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR
BTWN 17-20Z BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS, AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP A GENERALLY
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATER FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WHILE THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
WAVE HEIGHTS THROUGH THE WEEK, SEA MAY SLIGHTLY BUILD ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS BY MID TO LATE WEEK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ARE
ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK, WHICH MAY PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS,
GUSTY WINDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS, MAINLY IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  89  77  90 /  50  70  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  80  90 /  50  70  50  60
MIAMI            76  91  78  90 /  50  70  40  60
NAPLES           76  91  76  91 /  60  60  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211534
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1134 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAINLAND AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING DOES NOT
LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE, HOWEVER, FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
700-1500MB LAPSE RATES OF ONLY 5.8 AND THE FREEZING LEVEL AT
ALMOST 16K FT ARE SHOWN ON THE SOUNDING. CAPE IS ABOUT 2700J WITH
PWATS OF ALMOST 2 IN. THE MEAN WIND UP TO 6KM ARE ONLY 7KTS. SO,
NOT EXPECTING OTHER THAN TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH
CAN BRING HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTENING, AND GUSTY WINDS. THE CELLS MAY
BE SLOW MOVING, WHICH COULD BRING SOME TYPICAL MINOR URBAN
FLOODING IN TYPICAL PLACES THAT HAVE POOR DRAINAGE. WITH WEAK SHEAR,
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME WATERSPOUTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VERY WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND 16Z WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE VERY WEAK SO PLACED
TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MOSTLY VFR IS
ANTICIPATED. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR
BTWN 17-20Z BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE INTERIOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

.HIGH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY...
.DRIER CONDITIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF COAST STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE
RAISED TO LIKELY CONDITIONS OVER THE METRO AREAS AND TO
CATEGORICAL CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR TODAY AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

THE PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2 TO 2.2 INCHES TODAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE MORNING HWO
PACKAGE.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD
BACK WEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PWAT VALUE FALLING DOWN TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT VALUE OF 1.85 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LESS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION POPS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.

THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
DIRECTION WILL SLOWLY SWING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY TO A
SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE GOOD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  78 /  60  50  70  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  89  80 /  60  50  70  50
MIAMI            91  77  90  79 /  60  50  70  40
NAPLES           91  76  89  77 /  60  30  60  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 211534
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1134 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE MAINLAND AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE DAY. THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING DOES NOT
LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE, HOWEVER, FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
700-1500MB LAPSE RATES OF ONLY 5.8 AND THE FREEZING LEVEL AT
ALMOST 16K FT ARE SHOWN ON THE SOUNDING. CAPE IS ABOUT 2700J WITH
PWATS OF ALMOST 2 IN. THE MEAN WIND UP TO 6KM ARE ONLY 7KTS. SO,
NOT EXPECTING OTHER THAN TYPICAL AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH
CAN BRING HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTENING, AND GUSTY WINDS. THE CELLS MAY
BE SLOW MOVING, WHICH COULD BRING SOME TYPICAL MINOR URBAN
FLOODING IN TYPICAL PLACES THAT HAVE POOR DRAINAGE. WITH WEAK SHEAR,
THERE IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY OF SOME WATERSPOUTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VERY WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND 16Z WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE VERY WEAK SO PLACED
TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MOSTLY VFR IS
ANTICIPATED. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR
BTWN 17-20Z BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE INTERIOR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

.HIGH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY...
.DRIER CONDITIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF COAST STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE
RAISED TO LIKELY CONDITIONS OVER THE METRO AREAS AND TO
CATEGORICAL CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR TODAY AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

THE PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2 TO 2.2 INCHES TODAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE MORNING HWO
PACKAGE.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD
BACK WEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PWAT VALUE FALLING DOWN TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT VALUE OF 1.85 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LESS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION POPS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.

THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
DIRECTION WILL SLOWLY SWING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY TO A
SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE GOOD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  78 /  60  50  70  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  89  80 /  60  50  70  50
MIAMI            91  77  90  79 /  60  50  70  40
NAPLES           91  76  89  77 /  60  30  60  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VERY WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND 16Z WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE VERY WEAK SO PLACED
TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MOSTLY VFR IS
ANTICIPATED. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR
BTWN 17-20Z BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

..HIGH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY...
..DRIER CONDITIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF COAST STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE
RAISED TO LIKELY CONDITIONS OVER THE METRO AREAS AND TO
CATEGORICAL CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR TODAY AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

THE PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2 TO 2.2 INCHES TODAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE MORNING HWO
PACKAGE.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD
BACK WEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PWAT VALUE FALLING DOWN TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT VALUE OF 1.85 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LESS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION POPS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.

THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
DIRECTION WILL SLOWLY SWING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY TO A
SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE GOOD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  77 /  60  50  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  79  89  79 /  60  50  60  30
MIAMI            91  78  90  78 /  60  50  60  40
NAPLES           91  76  90  76 /  60  50  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
VERY WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOTH COASTS AROUND 16Z WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES. STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO BE VERY WEAK SO PLACED
TEMPO GROUPS IN FOR ALL TERMINALS ALTHOUGH MOSTLY VFR IS
ANTICIPATED. THE BEST WINDOW FOR CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR
BTWN 17-20Z BEFORE ACTIVITY SHIFTS TO THE INTERIOR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2014/

..HIGH THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TUESDAY...
..DRIER CONDITIONS FOR LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND MOVES SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF COAST STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL MOVE WEST NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BE EAST NORTHEAST TODAY BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTH TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE
RAISED TO LIKELY CONDITIONS OVER THE METRO AREAS AND TO
CATEGORICAL CONDITIONS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR TODAY AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

THE PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 2 TO 2.2 INCHES TODAY
INTO TUESDAY WHICH WILL LEAD TO SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE MORNING HWO
PACKAGE.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TO BUILD
BACK WEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA BRINGING IN SOME DRIER AIR FROM
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL KEEP
THE POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS ALLOWING FOR THE CONTINUATION OF THE
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PWAT VALUE FALLING DOWN TO 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WHICH IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT VALUE OF 1.85 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
THEREFORE...THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE LESS
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION POPS WHERE THE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE.

THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN NEXT WEEKEND AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND ALLOW FOR MORE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN
TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE
DIRECTION WILL SLOWLY SWING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TODAY TO A
SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION BY END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE
SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK. THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE GOOD OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  77 /  60  50  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  79  89  79 /  60  50  60  30
MIAMI            91  78  90  78 /  60  50  60  40
NAPLES           91  76  90  76 /  60  50  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




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