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000
FXUS62 KMFL 191508
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1008 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW. INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE
ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUBTLE EASTERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AND BECOME CONSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST,
WHICH IS DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ON SUNDAY, A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE TO A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE LEADING TO WARMER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES. STILL, CURRENT PWAT LEVELS OF AROUND ONE-HALF INCH
WILL ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TUESDAY AND APPROACH LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PWAT ALSO ON THE INCREASE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NEAR THE LAKE AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AND 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY COOL AROUND 1C SO NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SO
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDER MINIMAL ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS NOW, THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HOLIDAY WILL BE COOL AND SUNNY.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE WIND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  59  77  62 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  64  78  67 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            78  63  79  66 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           75  57  77  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191508
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1008 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP RAIN FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH GENERALLY LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE
FLOW. INCREASED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE
ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO FURTHER UPDATES ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 546 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUBTLE EASTERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AND BECOME CONSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST,
WHICH IS DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ON SUNDAY, A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE TO A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE LEADING TO WARMER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES. STILL, CURRENT PWAT LEVELS OF AROUND ONE-HALF INCH
WILL ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TUESDAY AND APPROACH LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PWAT ALSO ON THE INCREASE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NEAR THE LAKE AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AND 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY COOL AROUND 1C SO NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SO
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDER MINIMAL ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS NOW, THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HOLIDAY WILL BE COOL AND SUNNY.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE WIND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  59  77  62 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  64  78  67 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            78  63  79  66 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           75  57  77  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191046
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
546 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUBTLE EASTERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AND BECOME CONSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST,
WHICH IS DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ON SUNDAY, A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE TO A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE LEADING TO WARMER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES. STILL, CURRENT PWAT LEVELS OF AROUND ONE-HALF INCH
WILL ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TUESDAY AND APPROACH LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PWAT ALSO ON THE INCREASE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NEAR THE LAKE AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AND 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY COOL AROUND 1C SO NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SO
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDER MINIMAL ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS NOW, THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HOLIDAY WILL BE COOL AND SUNNY.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE WIND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  59  77  62 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  64  78  67 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            78  63  79  66 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           75  57  77  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191046
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
546 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES THROUGH THE PERIOD. SUBTLE EASTERLY BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AND BECOME CONSISTENT THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST,
WHICH IS DIFFERENT THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS, AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE REACHES THE WESTERN ATLANTIC LATER TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ON SUNDAY, A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE TO A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE LEADING TO WARMER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES. STILL, CURRENT PWAT LEVELS OF AROUND ONE-HALF INCH
WILL ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TUESDAY AND APPROACH LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PWAT ALSO ON THE INCREASE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NEAR THE LAKE AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AND 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY COOL AROUND 1C SO NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SO
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDER MINIMAL ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS NOW, THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HOLIDAY WILL BE COOL AND SUNNY.

MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE WIND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  59  77  62 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  64  78  67 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            78  63  79  66 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           75  57  77  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190832
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ON SUNDAY, A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE TO A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE LEADING TO WARMER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES. STILL, CURRENT PWAT LEVELS OF AROUND ONE-HALF INCH
WILL ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TUESDAY AND APPROACH LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PWAT ALSO ON THE INCREASE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NEAR THE LAKE AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AND 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY COOL AROUND 1C SO NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SO
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDER MINIMAL ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS NOW, THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HOLIDAY WILL BE COOL AND SUNNY.

&&

.MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE WIND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  59  77  62 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  64  78  67 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            78  63  79  66 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           75  57  77  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190832
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. ON SUNDAY, A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MORE TO A SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AND THE UPPER FLOW TO THE SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, DEW POINTS WILL BE ON THE RISE LEADING TO WARMER NIGHTTIME
TEMPERATURES. STILL, CURRENT PWAT LEVELS OF AROUND ONE-HALF INCH
WILL ONLY CLIMB TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY SO CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN RAIN FREE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-CHRISTMAS DAY)...
THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH THE SURFACE WAVE WILL RAPIDLY LIFT TO
THE NORTHEAST ON MONDAY AS A STRONG TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTH OUT
OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL CARVE OUT A MAJOR TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE TUESDAY AND APPROACH LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WITH PWAT ALSO ON THE INCREASE. THIS COULD LEAD TO A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NEAR THE LAKE AND ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THE MAIN DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF OUR AREA AND 500MB TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO ONLY COOL AROUND 1C SO NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE. SO
WILL KEEP CHANCES OF THUNDER MINIMAL ACROSS THE AREA. FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS NOW, THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PENINSULA EARLY CHRISTMAS MORNING. SO IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HOLIDAY WILL BE COOL AND SUNNY.

&&

.MARINE...
GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY AND MOVE THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE WIND VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WITH BUILDING SEAS THROUGH CHRISTMAS
DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  59  77  62 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  64  78  67 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            78  63  79  66 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           75  57  77  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 190551
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1251 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...

MIDWEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, EXPANDING TO THE EAST COAST AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TODAY, WILL ALLOW MORE PERSISTENT
EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH YESTERDAY`S
WEAK FRONT WASHED OUT, THINKING REDUCED VIS/CIG IS EVEN LESS
LIKELY THIS EARLY MORNING, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A SLT CHC FOR
VERY BRIEF IFR VIS/CIG AT APF JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. A SEA BREEZE
MAY DEVELOP AT APF LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

VERY CALM AND TRANQUIL REGIONAL WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE 00Z
SOUNDING INDICATES A DRY AND LOCALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
INTERIOR, POSSIBLY IMPACTING SOME TAF SITES. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE
INDICATING THERE IS ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE. THEREFORE, HAVE
KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO MOVE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY BEFORE
MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND, AS
THE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE
60S.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND AND STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO, LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME PUSHING THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT, AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING IN
SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS, WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THEN DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TO
BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  59  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  64  78  67 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            78  63  79  66 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           75  57  77  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 190551
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1251 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...

MIDWEST SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, EXPANDING TO THE EAST COAST AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH TODAY, WILL ALLOW MORE PERSISTENT
EASTERLY WINDS TO DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH YESTERDAY`S
WEAK FRONT WASHED OUT, THINKING REDUCED VIS/CIG IS EVEN LESS
LIKELY THIS EARLY MORNING, ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS A SLT CHC FOR
VERY BRIEF IFR VIS/CIG AT APF JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. A SEA BREEZE
MAY DEVELOP AT APF LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...

VERY CALM AND TRANQUIL REGIONAL WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE 00Z
SOUNDING INDICATES A DRY AND LOCALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME FOG THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
INTERIOR, POSSIBLY IMPACTING SOME TAF SITES. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE
INDICATING THERE IS ONLY A VERY SMALL CHANCE. THEREFORE, HAVE
KEPT ANY MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO MOVE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY BEFORE
MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND, AS
THE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY. THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE
60S.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND AND STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO, LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME PUSHING THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT, AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING IN
SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS, WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THEN DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TO
BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  59  77  62 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  64  78  67 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            78  63  79  66 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           75  57  77  61 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190230
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

VERY CALM AND TRANQUIL REGIONAL WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE 00Z
SOUNDING INDICATES A DRY AND LOCALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME FOG THAT MAY DEVELOPING THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY IMPACT SOME SITES IF ENOUGH IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE IS ONLY A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF ANY IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO MOVE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND, AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION.
THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND AND STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO, LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME PUSHING THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT, AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING IN
SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS, WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THEN DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TO
BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  76  59  77 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  58  77  64  78 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            59  78  63  79 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           53  75  57  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190230
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...

VERY CALM AND TRANQUIL REGIONAL WEATHER CONTINUES THIS EVENING.
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. THE 00Z
SOUNDING INDICATES A DRY AND LOCALLY STABLE ATMOSPHERE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT FORECAST
PACKAGE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME FOG THAT MAY DEVELOPING THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY IMPACT SOME SITES IF ENOUGH IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE IS ONLY A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF ANY IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO MOVE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND, AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION.
THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND AND STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO, LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME PUSHING THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT, AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING IN
SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS, WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THEN DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TO
BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  76  59  77 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  58  77  64  78 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            59  78  63  79 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           53  75  57  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 182353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
653 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME FOG THAT MAY DEVELOPING THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY IMPACT SOME SITES IF ENOUGH IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE IS ONLY A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF ANY IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO MOVE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND, AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION.
THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND AND STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO, LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME PUSHING THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT, AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING IN
SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS, WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THEN DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TO
BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  76  59  77 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  58  77  64  78 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            59  78  63  79 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           53  75  57  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 182353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
653 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME FOG THAT MAY DEVELOPING THE
INTERIOR AND POSSIBLY IMPACT SOME SITES IF ENOUGH IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE IS ONLY A VERY SMALL
CHANCE OF ANY IMPACT TO THE TAF SITES. THEREFORE, HAVE KEPT ANY
MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO MOVE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND, AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION.
THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND AND STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO, LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME PUSHING THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT, AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING IN
SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS, WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THEN DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TO
BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  76  59  77 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  58  77  64  78 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            59  78  63  79 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           53  75  57  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 182030
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO MOVE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND, AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION.
THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND AND STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO, LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME PUSHING THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT, AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING IN
SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS, WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THEN DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TO
BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  76  59  77 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  58  77  64  78 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            59  78  63  79 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           53  75  57  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 182030
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
330 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

...DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAS DISSIPATED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS TO MOVE BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
HIGH WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SATURDAY
BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND, AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY IN DIRECTION.
THEREFORE, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMING THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THIS
WEEKEND AND STALL OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO, LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW
WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND
INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES AROUND CHRISTMAS TIME PUSHING THE
FRONT SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT, AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
CHRISTMAS EVE DAY.

THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING IN
SOME MOISTURE TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE, THE CHANCE
OF SHOWERS, ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS, WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THEN DRY
WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEKEND
WITH SPEEDS OF 10 MPH OR LESS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TO
BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  76  59  77 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  58  77  64  78 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            59  78  63  79 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           53  75  57  77 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181826
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
126 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF, SUB
TEMPO IFR AT A FEW SITES. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT,
WITH LIGHT FOG OR LOW CIGS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  58  75  64  77 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  76  66  78 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            62  76  66  78 /   0   0  10   0
NAPLES           54  75  60  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181826
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
126 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER, CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME BRIEF, SUB
TEMPO IFR AT A FEW SITES. THIS WOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT,
WITH LIGHT FOG OR LOW CIGS POSSIBLE, BUT NOT LIKELY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  58  75  64  77 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  76  66  78 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            62  76  66  78 /   0   0  10   0
NAPLES           54  75  60  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 181400 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...

BRIEF IFR OCCURRED AT APF AN HOUR AGO, BUT THOSE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
NOW SCATTERED AND DISSIPATED. MINIMAL CHC OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN UNTIL SUNRISE AT APF. WEAK COLD FRONT ERODES TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE MAY ARRIVE FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            79  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181400 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...

BRIEF IFR OCCURRED AT APF AN HOUR AGO, BUT THOSE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
NOW SCATTERED AND DISSIPATED. MINIMAL CHC OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN UNTIL SUNRISE AT APF. WEAK COLD FRONT ERODES TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE MAY ARRIVE FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            79  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 181400 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...

BRIEF IFR OCCURRED AT APF AN HOUR AGO, BUT THOSE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
NOW SCATTERED AND DISSIPATED. MINIMAL CHC OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN UNTIL SUNRISE AT APF. WEAK COLD FRONT ERODES TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE MAY ARRIVE FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            79  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181400 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS WASHING OUT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
AND WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL KEEP
THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE TODAY ALONG WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND
FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST IS TO RAISE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BIT FOR THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND FLOW. NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 543 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

AVIATION...

BRIEF IFR OCCURRED AT APF AN HOUR AGO, BUT THOSE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
NOW SCATTERED AND DISSIPATED. MINIMAL CHC OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN UNTIL SUNRISE AT APF. WEAK COLD FRONT ERODES TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE MAY ARRIVE FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            79  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 181043
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
543 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

BRIEF IFR OCCURRED AT APF AN HOUR AGO, BUT THOSE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
NOW SCATTERED AND DISSIPATED. MINIMAL CHC OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN UNTIL SUNRISE AT APF. WEAK COLD FRONT ERODES TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE MAY ARRIVE FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181043
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
543 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

BRIEF IFR OCCURRED AT APF AN HOUR AGO, BUT THOSE LOW CLOUDS HAVE
NOW SCATTERED AND DISSIPATED. MINIMAL CHC OF A FEW LOW CLOUDS
AGAIN UNTIL SUNRISE AT APF. WEAK COLD FRONT ERODES TODAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZE MAY ARRIVE FOR A FEW HOURS AGAIN THIS
LATE AFTERNOON, OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DELIVER VFR THROUGH
TONIGHT.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 180825
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 180825
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180825
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 180825
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL REMAIN BENIGN AND DRY WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND AS A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN MAINTAINS ITSELF. THIS IS A
RESULT OF A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MID LATITUDES ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE, BUT
WITH SUCH A STRONG RIDGE IN PLACE THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN WELL
NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE SURFACE RIDGE THAT HAD BEEN
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAS DRIFTED SOUTH INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVED DOWN THE
PENINSULA. THIS FRONT HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING BUT IS BECOMING RAPIDLY DIFFUSE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE SATURDAY BUT WILL HAVE NO EFFECT ON SOUTH
FLORIDA OTHER THAN TO RAISE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS THE WIND VEERS TO A
SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TRANSPORTING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF APPEAR TO BE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT FOR
THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A SERIES OF
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
AMERICA. THIS COULD LEAD TO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES AND MOISTENS. MOST OF THE DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME SO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS NOT
FORESEEN BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. IN
ADDITION, FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING AN INCREASING CHANCE
FOR THUNDER ESPECIALLY NEAR THE LAKE AND SOUTHWEST COAST FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER, THE GFS IS SHOWING STRONG 850MB WINDS
TO INCREASE ABOVE 30-35 KNOTS AND THIS WOULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT COMBINED WITH THE FACT ANY UPPER AIR DYNAMICS WILL
REMAIN WELL TO OUR NORTH. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE DEPICTING A COLD FRONT TO
MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER ADVANCING TO ALL REGIONS TUESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN BATTLING AS TO HOW DEEP THE TROUGH BECOMES
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWING THE STRONGER TROUGH AND THUS THE COOLER
PUSH OF AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT SHOW
AS DEEP OF A TROUGH WITH THE GFS NOW HAVING THE STRONGER PUSH OF
COOLER AIR. SO AT THIS TIME IT IS THE WAIT AND SEE APPROACH.

&&

.MARINE...
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND THIS MORNING
SLOWLY VEERING TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS, WIND
WILL CONTINUING VEERING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY. SEAS
WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 4 FEET ALL WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180545
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1245 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

SOME MID CLDS AT KPBI BUT MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT NEAR THE LAKE REGION. BKN 25KFT CLDS MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE
MOST SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE SE. GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES AT KAPF/KTMB BUT NOTHING LESS THAN 4SM.
PERSISTENT CANOPY OF MID HIGH CLDS MAY PRECLUDE THIS FROM
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED WITH SIMILAR SEA BREEZE TIME
AND DURATION AS YESTERDAY, DEVELOPING LATE DAY AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH QUIET WEATHER ONLY MADE SOME VERY SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER FOR THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG IN THE INTERIOR AREAS.
CURRENTLY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES IN SOUTH
FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WHILE THEY WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW, THEY STILL LOOK TO VARY IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE DAY, SO KEPT VARIABLE AT 4 KTS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
ESE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WEAKENING. THE ECMWF HOWEVER SHOWS WHAT
EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/DG

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180545
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1245 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...

SOME MID CLDS AT KPBI BUT MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH COLD
FRONT NEAR THE LAKE REGION. BKN 25KFT CLDS MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE
MOST SOUTHERN TERMINALS AS THEY MOVE SE. GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME
LOWER VISIBILITIES AT KAPF/KTMB BUT NOTHING LESS THAN 4SM.
PERSISTENT CANOPY OF MID HIGH CLDS MAY PRECLUDE THIS FROM
OCCURRING. OTHERWISE, VFR EXPECTED WITH SIMILAR SEA BREEZE TIME
AND DURATION AS YESTERDAY, DEVELOPING LATE DAY AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 623 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

UPDATE...
WITH QUIET WEATHER ONLY MADE SOME VERY SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER FOR THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG IN THE INTERIOR AREAS.
CURRENTLY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITES IN SOUTH
FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WHILE THEY WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW, THEY STILL LOOK TO VARY IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE DAY, SO KEPT VARIABLE AT 4 KTS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
ESE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY
EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH WEAKENING. THE ECMWF HOWEVER SHOWS WHAT
EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/DG

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  58  75  64 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  76  66 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            77  62  76  66 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           72  54  75  60 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 172323
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
623 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH QUIET WEATHER ONLY MADE SOME VERY SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG IN THE INTERIOR AREAS.
CURRENTLY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITE IN SOUTH
FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WHILE THEY WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW, THEY STILL LOOK TO VARY IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE DAY, SO KEPT VARIABLE AT 4 KTS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
ESE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN TO
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/DG

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  75  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           57  72  54  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 172323
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
623 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH QUIET WEATHER ONLY MADE SOME VERY SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS. THE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET THROUGH THE REMAINDER FOR THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY QUIET WEATHER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME POSSIBLE FOG IN THE INTERIOR AREAS.
CURRENTLY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY TAF SITE IN SOUTH
FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT. WHILE THEY WILL
INCREASE TOMORROW, THEY STILL LOOK TO VARY IN DIRECTION THROUGH
THE DAY, SO KEPT VARIABLE AT 4 KTS FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
ESE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN TO
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/DG

MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  75  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           57  72  54  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 172008
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
308 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
ESE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN TO
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/DG

&&

.AVIATION...

THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND PASSING
THE KAPF TAF SITE. THEREFORE...THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH 23Z AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES SHOULD STILL SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN
THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES.

/60

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  75  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           57  72  54  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AG/DG
AVIATION...BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 172008
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
308 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EASTWARD
OVER THE REGION AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
DISSIPATES TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE NWRN GULF COAST STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE PROJECTED
TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN ABOVE NORMAL
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
ESE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...

THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALL. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN TO
MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

/DG

&&

.AVIATION...

THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND PASSING
THE KAPF TAF SITE. THEREFORE...THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH 23Z AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES SHOULD STILL SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 20Z
AND 21Z THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN
THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES.

/60

&&

.MARINE...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA LOCAL WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  75  58  75 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  77  62  76 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           57  72  54  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AG/DG
AVIATION...BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 171733 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1233 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND PASSING THE
KAPF TAF SITE. THEREFORE...THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY THROUGH 23Z AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES SHOULD STILL SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 20Z AND
21Z THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING
BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
20 AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

AVIATION...BNB/SK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  76  61  75 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  64  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  78  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           56  73  56  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171733 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1233 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND PASSING THE
KAPF TAF SITE. THEREFORE...THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL REMAIN
WESTERLY THROUGH 23Z AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR TONIGHT. THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES SHOULD STILL SWING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION BETWEEN 20Z AND
21Z THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS BEFORE GOING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

AVIATION...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING
BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
20 AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&

AVIATION...BNB/SK

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  76  61  75 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  64  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  78  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           56  73  56  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 171141 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
641 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING
BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
20 AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&
.AVIATION...BNB/SK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  76  61  75 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  64  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  78  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           56  73  56  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171141 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
641 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER THE TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING
BEFORE SWINGING TO AN EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
20 AND 22Z THIS AFTERNOON. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 KNOTS.

&&
.AVIATION...BNB/SK

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  76  61  75 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  77  64  76 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            61  78  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           56  73  56  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 170818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  60  76  61 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  77  64 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  61  78  63 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  56  73  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 170818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  60  76  61 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  77  64 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  61  78  63 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  56  73  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 170818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  60  76  61 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  77  64 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  61  78  63 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  56  73  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 170818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
318 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...
ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE
END OF THIS WEEK WITH A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA MAINTAINING THE
LIGHT WIND. THE ONLY REAL CHANGE FORESEEN THROUGH FRIDAY IS THAT A
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TX/LA COASTAL REGION AS
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHAPING UP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA
AND VEERING OUR LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE SOUTHEAST WHICH IN TURN WILL
TRANSLATE TO WARMER NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREA. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-TUESDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMING MORE IN LINE
WITH OTHER SHOWING THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MAINTAINING ITS GRIP ACROSS
THE CARIBBEAN SEA BLOCKING ANY COLD FRONT FROM MOVING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN STALLING. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIFFER AT
THIS POINT WITH THE GFS SAGGING THE FRONT SOUTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
BY EARLY TUESDAY ALTHOUGH AT A WEAKENING STATE. THE ECMWF HOWEVER
SHOWS WHAT EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS HAD SHOWN WITH A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT AS A STRONG UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AT ANY RATE,
UNTIL THE MODELS ARE MORE CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN DO NOT PLAN
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
EXCELLENT BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ON FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE WIND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST.
SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  60  76  61 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  77  64 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  61  78  63 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  56  73  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 170549
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1249 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.AVIATION...

MINIMAL DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AT KAPF MAY LEAD TO SOME REDUCTIONS IN
VISIBILITY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE KEEPS VIS
ABOVE 4SM. OTHERWISE, MORE VFR AS A WEAK FRONT DIES NEAR THE LAKE
REGION LATER TODAY. A SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, THEN WEAKEN AND STALL,
BRINGING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 6KTS.
MODELS DO INDICATE A SEA BREEZE MAY TRY TO KICK IN FOR A FEW HOURS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS MAY TURN THE WINDS MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE THEY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF INTERIOR/WEST COAST THROUGH 13Z...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WESTERN-SUBURBS OF THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS MAY HAVE SOME
SPOTS OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  60  76  61 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  62  77  64 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            77  61  78  63 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           74  56  73  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 162337
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, THEN WEAKEN AND STALL,
BRINGING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 6KTS.
MODELS DO INDICATE A SEA BREEZE MAY TRY TO KICK IN FOR A FEW HOURS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS MAY TURN THE WINDS MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE THEY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF INTERIOR/WEST COAST THROUGH 13Z...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WESTERN-SUBURBS OF THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS MAY HAVE SOME
SPOTS OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  54  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           54  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 162337
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, THEN WEAKEN AND STALL,
BRINGING NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT.
TOMORROW, WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT AROUND 6KTS.
MODELS DO INDICATE A SEA BREEZE MAY TRY TO KICK IN FOR A FEW HOURS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. THIS MAY TURN THE WINDS MORE EASTERLY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR A FEW HOURS, BEFORE THEY GO LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF INTERIOR/WEST COAST THROUGH 13Z...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WESTERN-SUBURBS OF THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS MAY HAVE SOME
SPOTS OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  54  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           54  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 162250
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
550 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF INTERIOR/WEST COAST THROUGH 13Z...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WESTERN-SUBURBS OF THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS MAY HAVE SOME
SPOTS OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  54  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           54  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 162250
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
550 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON ROSE A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...AND TONIGHTS LOWS WILL FOLLOW SUIT. WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS...AND MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA...ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP PATCHY FOG IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF INTERIOR/WEST COAST THROUGH 13Z...ALTHOUGH ITS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION WESTERN-SUBURBS OF THE MIAMI...FORT
LAUDERDALE...AND WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS MAY HAVE SOME
SPOTS OF FOG AROUND SUNRISE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  54  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           54  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 161852
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  55  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  57  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            58  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           53  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 161852
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
152 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A ZONAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA SAGGING SOUTHWARD INTO
THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE WEAK BOUNDARY WILL THEN STALL
AND DISSIPATE...WITH NO APPRECIABLE WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE CHANGE
TO NOTE.

THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK NORTH OF THE REGION. ON THE
OTHER HAND, THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF RUN STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE GFS SOLUTION.
ANOTHER FRONTAL WAVE MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE GULF AND MOVE EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING INCREASING
CHANCES OF RAIN TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  55  76  60  76 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  57  77  62  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            58  77  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           53  74  56  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 161739
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1239 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
BENIGN PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY GIVES A VFR
FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES. A SHALLOW SLICE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA WEAK COLD FRONT, MAY THROW A FEW CLOUDS OUR
WAY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH A VERY QUIET WEATHER REGIME CONTINUING. THE MID-
LATITUDES WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS SAME TIME
PERIOD WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND RAPIDLY
BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT DOES SO. THE FRONT WILL REACH NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. NO WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE
CHANGE WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE 12Z
ECMWF RUN SHOWED THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
SATURDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST 0Z RUN NOW STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL
MAINTAIN THEREFORE SOME CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST AND GO WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE. ALSO, IF
THE FRONT DOES STALL, THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS CHANGE.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  56  76  59  74 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  60  76  61  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  76 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           56  73  56  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 161739
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1239 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.AVIATION...
WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE
LAKE REGION BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TODAY. A WEAK SEA ONSHORE FLOW MAY
DEVELOP...BUT OVERALL WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 10 KNOTS. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 552 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

AVIATION...
BENIGN PATTERN WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY GIVES A VFR
FORECAST FOR ALL TAF SITES. A SHALLOW SLICE OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA WEAK COLD FRONT, MAY THROW A FEW CLOUDS OUR
WAY LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)...
A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM WITH A VERY QUIET WEATHER REGIME CONTINUING. THE MID-
LATITUDES WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY PROGRESSIVE THROUGH THIS SAME TIME
PERIOD WITH A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND RAPIDLY
BECOME DIFFUSE AS IT DOES SO. THE FRONT WILL REACH NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON THURSDAY
WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. NO WEATHER OR TEMPERATURE
CHANGE WILL OCCUR WITH THIS FEATURE.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...
THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE VERY PROGRESSIVE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BUT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY TO THIS WEEKEND`S FORECAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WHILE BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MAINTAIN A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN WITH A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER TRAILING TROUGH
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY, THE TWO MODELS DIVERGE ON THE
SOLUTION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THE GFS HAS A STRONG SURFACE
WAVE DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND WHICH STALLS
A COLD FRONT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE OTHER HAND, THE 12Z
ECMWF RUN SHOWED THE FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
SATURDAY WITH COOLER CONDITIONS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THE
LATEST 0Z RUN NOW STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
SATURDAY WHICH IS STILL FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS SOLUTION. WILL
MAINTAIN THEREFORE SOME CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST AND GO WITH THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW WITH LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE. ALSO, IF
THE FRONT DOES STALL, THEN POPS MAY NEED TO BE HIGHER TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS CHANGE.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN VERY LIGHT WIND
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. TOWARDS THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THEN POSSIBLY STALL. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WIND TO
BECOME SOUTHEAST AND THEN VEER TO THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BECOMING LIGHT AGAIN AS THE FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  56  76  59  74 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  60  76  61  75 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            59  77  61  76 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           56  73  56  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...84/AK




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