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000
FXUS62 KMFL 281900
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A HOT DAY YESTERDAY...TODAY IS ABOUT 20F DEGREES COOLER AS
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SEND COOL AIR STRAIGHT DOWN THE
PENINSULA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST...SO HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES. A CHILLY NIGHT
IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AT MOST
LOCALES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BEGINNING
TOMORROW...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY EASTERLY OFF THE WARM GULF STREAM CURRENT. THIS ALONG
WITH THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS.
ALSO...THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT OUT WITH A MORE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER. THE END RESULT IS FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL.
MARCH WILL BE GOING OUT LIKE A LAMB WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, PERHAPS MODERATE, WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES ON SUNDAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
IS LESSENING FOR THE GULF BEACHES AS WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS PREVAILING OUT OF THE NW AT
10-15 KT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER BEING
REGISTERED OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM WILL
CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE
THE LATEST NWPS RUN COMES IN, WE WILL MAKE ANY TIMING ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC...IF NEEDED. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH SUN BEFORE BECOMING NE AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  74  59  77 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  58  75  64  77 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            56  77  62  80 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           53  76  55  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281900
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A HOT DAY YESTERDAY...TODAY IS ABOUT 20F DEGREES COOLER AS
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SEND COOL AIR STRAIGHT DOWN THE
PENINSULA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST...SO HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES. A CHILLY NIGHT
IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AT MOST
LOCALES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BEGINNING
TOMORROW...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY EASTERLY OFF THE WARM GULF STREAM CURRENT. THIS ALONG
WITH THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS.
ALSO...THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT OUT WITH A MORE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER. THE END RESULT IS FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL.
MARCH WILL BE GOING OUT LIKE A LAMB WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, PERHAPS MODERATE, WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES ON SUNDAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
IS LESSENING FOR THE GULF BEACHES AS WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS PREVAILING OUT OF THE NW AT
10-15 KT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER BEING
REGISTERED OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM WILL
CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE
THE LATEST NWPS RUN COMES IN, WE WILL MAKE ANY TIMING ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC...IF NEEDED. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH SUN BEFORE BECOMING NE AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  74  59  77 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  58  75  64  77 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            56  77  62  80 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           53  76  55  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281900
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A HOT DAY YESTERDAY...TODAY IS ABOUT 20F DEGREES COOLER AS
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SEND COOL AIR STRAIGHT DOWN THE
PENINSULA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST...SO HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES. A CHILLY NIGHT
IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AT MOST
LOCALES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BEGINNING
TOMORROW...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY EASTERLY OFF THE WARM GULF STREAM CURRENT. THIS ALONG
WITH THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS.
ALSO...THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT OUT WITH A MORE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER. THE END RESULT IS FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL.
MARCH WILL BE GOING OUT LIKE A LAMB WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, PERHAPS MODERATE, WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES ON SUNDAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
IS LESSENING FOR THE GULF BEACHES AS WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS PREVAILING OUT OF THE NW AT
10-15 KT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER BEING
REGISTERED OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM WILL
CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE
THE LATEST NWPS RUN COMES IN, WE WILL MAKE ANY TIMING ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC...IF NEEDED. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH SUN BEFORE BECOMING NE AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  74  59  77 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  58  75  64  77 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            56  77  62  80 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           53  76  55  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281900
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
300 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER A HOT DAY YESTERDAY...TODAY IS ABOUT 20F DEGREES COOLER AS
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO SEND COOL AIR STRAIGHT DOWN THE
PENINSULA. TEMPS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
FORECAST...SO HAVE ADJUSTED DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES. A CHILLY NIGHT
IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S AT MOST
LOCALES.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL SHIFT EASTWARD BEGINNING
TOMORROW...AND THIS WILL ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY EASTERLY OFF THE WARM GULF STREAM CURRENT. THIS ALONG
WITH THE STRONG LATE MARCH SUN WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS.
ALSO...THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL LIFT OUT WITH A MORE
QUASI-ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER. THE END RESULT IS FOR TEMPS TO CLIMB
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE AS WE ENTERING THE FIRST WEEK OF APRIL.
MARCH WILL BE GOING OUT LIKE A LAMB WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

AT LEAST A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, PERHAPS MODERATE, WILL BE
IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC BEACHES ON SUNDAY. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
IS LESSENING FOR THE GULF BEACHES AS WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS PREVAILING OUT OF THE NW AT
10-15 KT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER BEING
REGISTERED OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE. SEAS IN THE GULF STREAM WILL
CONTINUE AT HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE
THE LATEST NWPS RUN COMES IN, WE WILL MAKE ANY TIMING ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC...IF NEEDED. WINDS
WILL PREVAIL OUT OF THE NORTH THROUGH SUN BEFORE BECOMING NE AND
EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SEAS GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  53  74  59  77 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  58  75  64  77 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            56  77  62  80 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           53  76  55  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281727
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
127 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THINNING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH BKN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
ON SUNDAY. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. NW SFC
WINDS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS EARLY AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY TAPER OFF
BEFORE SUNSET, BUT WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THROUGH 00Z, WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY WITH
N WINDS 10-15 KTS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  55  75  59  78 /   0   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  76  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            60  78  63  79 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           54  76  53  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/GREGORIA
LONG TERM....57/GREGORIA
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281727
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
127 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THINNING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH BKN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
ON SUNDAY. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. NW SFC
WINDS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS EARLY AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY TAPER OFF
BEFORE SUNSET, BUT WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THROUGH 00Z, WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY WITH
N WINDS 10-15 KTS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  55  75  59  78 /   0   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  76  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            60  78  63  79 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           54  76  53  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/GREGORIA
LONG TERM....57/GREGORIA
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281727
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
127 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THINNING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH BKN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
ON SUNDAY. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. NW SFC
WINDS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS EARLY AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY TAPER OFF
BEFORE SUNSET, BUT WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THROUGH 00Z, WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY WITH
N WINDS 10-15 KTS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  55  75  59  78 /   0   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  76  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            60  78  63  79 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           54  76  53  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/GREGORIA
LONG TERM....57/GREGORIA
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281727
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
127 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS THINNING OUT ACROSS THE REGION WITH BKN
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR
ON SUNDAY. DRY/VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AS
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN. NW SFC
WINDS GUSTING TO 20+ KNOTS EARLY AFTERNOON WILL PROBABLY TAPER OFF
BEFORE SUNSET, BUT WILL KEEP GUSTS IN THROUGH 00Z, WITH WINDS
DECREASING TO LESS THAN 10 KT OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS SUNDAY WITH
N WINDS 10-15 KTS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  55  75  59  78 /   0   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  59  76  63  77 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            60  78  63  79 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           54  76  53  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/GREGORIA
LONG TERM....57/GREGORIA
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281338
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THICK HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS COVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...WITH THINNING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND PROJECTING TRENDS. THE THICK
CIRRUS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THINNER
CIRRUS WILL HANG AROUND. SO AFTER A CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY MORNING,
EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME DIM SUN THROUGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THICKER CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS CHILLY THIS MORNING, BUT DIM SUN
SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR PROJECTED LOW-MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT FROM OUR RECORD HEAT IN PARTS OF SE FL
YESTERDAY! /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S COLD
FRONT WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FT. NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 KTS
MAINLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. A N-NE
SFC WIND AT NAPLES/KAPF THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281338
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THICK HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS COVER SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS
MORNING...WITH THINNING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND PROJECTING TRENDS. THE THICK
CIRRUS IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT THINNER
CIRRUS WILL HANG AROUND. SO AFTER A CONSIDERABLY CLOUDY MORNING,
EXPECTING AT LEAST SOME DIM SUN THROUGH CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
THICKER CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPS CHILLY THIS MORNING, BUT DIM SUN
SHOULD STILL ALLOW FOR PROJECTED LOW-MID 70S THIS AFTERNOON.
DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT FROM OUR RECORD HEAT IN PARTS OF SE FL
YESTERDAY! /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

AVIATION...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S COLD
FRONT WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FT. NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 KTS
MAINLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. A N-NE
SFC WIND AT NAPLES/KAPF THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281133
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S COLD
FRONT WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FT. NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 KTS
MAINLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. A N-NE
SFC WIND AT NAPLES/KAPF THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/GREGORIA
LONG TERM....57/GREGORIA
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281133
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S COLD
FRONT WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FT. NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 KTS
MAINLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. A N-NE
SFC WIND AT NAPLES/KAPF THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/GREGORIA
LONG TERM....57/GREGORIA
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281133
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S COLD
FRONT WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FT. NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 KTS
MAINLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. A N-NE
SFC WIND AT NAPLES/KAPF THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/GREGORIA
LONG TERM....57/GREGORIA
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281133
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND LAST NIGHT`S COLD
FRONT WILL ENSURE A DRY AND VFR DAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ONLY
CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE IN THE FORM OF BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS
CLOUDS AROUND 20,000 FT. NW SFC WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 20 KTS
MAINLY THIS MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. A N-NE
SFC WIND AT NAPLES/KAPF THIS MORNING WILL TURN TO THE NW THIS
AFTERNOON. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/GREGORIA
LONG TERM....57/GREGORIA
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280804
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WTIH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280804
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WTIH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 280804
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WTIH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280804
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...
A STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO SHIFT EAST THIS MORNING
ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL CLEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST PRIOR TO SUNRISE. EXTENSIVE MID TO HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL EARLY AND THEN THESE TOO WILL CLEAR THE LAKE
REGION AFTER SUNRISE AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE THOUGH SUNDAY ALONG WITH
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING TO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY REACH THE 70S AND
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO 50S TONIGHT EXCEPT AROUND 60 ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 70S. A MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW WILL RETURN
TO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A SLOW MODIFICATION IN THE COOL
AIRMASS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...
A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
LATE THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS RETURNING TO
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY MID WEEK CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS FOR
EARLY APRIL.

&&

.MARINE...
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WTIH A NORTH WIND
BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND SEAS OF 5 T 7 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS AND
6-9 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC. WIND AND SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS AND THE WIND
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND DIMINISHES. AN EAST WIND WILL THEN CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC AND WEAKENS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  55  75  59 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  59  76  63 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            77  60  78  63 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           74  54  76  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 280541
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
141 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY EVENING HAS
MOVED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  55  74  58 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  59  75  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            76  60  77  62 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           75  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...71/JE





000
FXUS62 KMFL 280541
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
141 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY EVENING HAS
MOVED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  55  74  58 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  59  75  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            76  60  77  62 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           75  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...71/JE





000
FXUS62 KMFL 280541
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
141 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY EVENING HAS
MOVED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  55  74  58 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  59  75  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            76  60  77  62 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           75  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280541
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
141 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.AVIATION...

THE FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY EVENING HAS
MOVED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. SOME LINGERING CLOUDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT AND REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  55  74  58 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  59  75  63 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            76  60  77  62 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           75  55  77  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280025
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
825 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT, STILL OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. IT WILL KEEP AREAS OF RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THIS
WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO THE AREA BY TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN THAT
DIRECTION THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

..SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  72  55  74 /  80   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  74  59  75 /  80   0   0   0
MIAMI            64  76  60  77 /  80   0   0   0
NAPLES           63  75  55  77 /  80   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 271916
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. 21/KM

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  72  55  74 /  30   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  74  59  75 /  30   0   0   0
MIAMI            64  76  60  77 /  30   0   0   0
NAPLES           63  75  55  77 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...59/MOLLEDA
SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 271916
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. 21/KM

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  72  55  74 /  30   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  74  59  75 /  30   0   0   0
MIAMI            64  76  60  77 /  30   0   0   0
NAPLES           63  75  55  77 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...59/MOLLEDA
SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271916
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. 21/KM

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  72  55  74 /  30   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  74  59  75 /  30   0   0   0
MIAMI            64  76  60  77 /  30   0   0   0
NAPLES           63  75  55  77 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...59/MOLLEDA
SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 271916
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...SCATTERED STORMS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN COOLER AND DRY
WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON MAKING STEADY PROGRESS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND IS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN FLORIDA EARLY
THIS EVENING, CLEARING THE PENINSULA AROUND MIDNIGHT THEN WELL
SOUTH/EAST OF THE STRAITS SATURDAY MORNING.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPERATURES HAVE SOARED TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ALONG THE EAST COAST AS STRONG SW WINDS HAVE
MIXED DOWN SOME DRY AIR. ALONG THE GULF COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AREAS, CLOUD COVER HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN WIDELY SCATTERED BUT ON THE STRONG SIDE IN THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND LAKE AREAS, WITH THE MAIN PRE-FRONTAL AREA
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE THE
NAPLES/FORT MYERS AREA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE EAST
COAST WILL REMAIN A THREAT THROUGH ABOUT 5 PM WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED. THE ACTIVITY CURRENTLY ALONG THE
GULF COAST WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY OR EVEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT A STRONG STORM OR TWO,
AND THE MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE STORMS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE
THROUGH SUNSET.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND)...
LINGERING LOW RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT
AS THE LAST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE COOL-DOWN THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY A GOOD 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.
LOWEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY MORNING WITH MOST AREAS IN
THE 50S (RANGING FROM UPPER 40S WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO RIGHT
AROUND 60 AT THE SOUTHEAST BEACHES). DEFINITELY A BIG CHANGE FROM
THE PAST FEW WEEKS. HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S
AREA-WIDE WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY
BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THEN DECREASE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. WINDS PICK BACK UP TO
MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES OVER
THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK)...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AS ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOMINATES. THIS WILL MEAN MILD AND
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
MODERATING TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE END OF MARCH/BEGINNING OF
APRIL. NEXT RAIN CHANCE LOOKS TO BE ON THURSDAY AS BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF INDICATE A WELL-DEFINED MID/LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
EAST FROM THE GULF ACROSS FLORIDA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHEAST AND DRAWS INCREASING MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. FOR NOW WE
HAVE ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND PLENTY
OF TIME TO MONITOR TRENDS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO BE INCREASED
AND/OR TO ADD THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...
STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. 21/KM

&&

.MARINE...
GUSTY SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE NW LATE THIS
EVENING AND REMAIN STRONG, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR
ALL WATERS EXCEPT BISCAYNE BAY. CONDITIONS REMAINING AT ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY, THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. BRIEF INCREASE IN N/NE WINDS ON
SUNDAY COULD BRING SEAS BACK UP TO NEAR CAUTION LEVELS, ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC/GULF STREAM. /MOLLEDA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THIS EVENING`S FRONT. LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE AROUND 30 PERCENT AREA-WIDE,
POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE 25 PERCENT RANGE OVER THE INTERIOR ON
SUNDAY. THIS COULD LEAD TO FIRE CONTROL ISSUES, ESPECIALLY IF
WINDS END UP BEING A LITTLE STRONGER THAN FORECAST. SLIGHT
MODERATION IN HUMIDITY LEVELS MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT STILL
REMAINING AROUND 35 TO 40 PERCENT. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  72  55  74 /  30   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  74  59  75 /  30   0   0   0
MIAMI            64  76  60  77 /  30   0   0   0
NAPLES           63  75  55  77 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...59/MOLLEDA
SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  73  54  75 /  30  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  63  74  59  75 /  30  10   0   0
MIAMI            64  77  60  78 /  30  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  74  54  77 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  73  54  75 /  30  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  63  74  59  75 /  30  10   0   0
MIAMI            64  77  60  78 /  30  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  74  54  77 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  73  54  75 /  30  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  63  74  59  75 /  30  10   0   0
MIAMI            64  77  60  78 /  30  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  74  54  77 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 271754
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
154 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

STORMS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN COVERAGE AT THE NORTHERN MOST
TERMINALS NEAREST THE FRONT, PBI/APF, AND PER CCFP A TEMPO TSRA
GROUP WAS INCLUDED. APF CURRENTLY WITH MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS/LOW
CLOUDS OFF THE GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. VCTS WAS INCLUDED AT
ALL OTHER SITES WITH SCATTERED STORMS LATER THIS PM AS FRONT SINKS
SOUTH. CAN`T RULE OUT TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS IN THE STRONGEST
STORMS. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWERS WILL BE LEFT THIS EVENING, MUCH OF
THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OVER BY 2Z, BUT SOME RESIDUAL SHOWERS STILL
POSSIBLE AT APF JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. MUCH DRIER AIR ARRIVING
QUICKLY TONIGHT. SOME 30KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE STORMS WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE ALONE. BENIGN PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY WITH
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  73  54  75 /  30  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  63  74  59  75 /  30  10   0   0
MIAMI            64  77  60  78 /  30  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  74  54  77 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 271404
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION.....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 271404
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION.....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 271404
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION.....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271404
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1004 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
MIXED SIGNALS REGARDING STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ACROSS/OFFSHORE PALM BEACH
COUNTY ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
GRADUALLY WANING AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOMING S-SW ACROSS THE AREA
AND WASHING OUT THE BOUNDARY. MAIN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DOWN TO THE GULF COAST APPEARS TO BE
SHEARING OUT TO THE NE RATHER THAN DIVE DOWN INTO THE GULF/FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS IS ACTING TO LIMIT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS
THE MAIN BAND OF MOISTURE WITH THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A SIGN OF THIS IS THE PRESENT LACK OF DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

HOWEVER, AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH REGIONS. DESPITE CLOUD COVER THIS
MORNING, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP INTO THE 80S AND INCREASE THE ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY. MODELS ARE RATHER CONSISTENT IN FOCUSING MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PALM BEACH AREAS, AND THIS LOOKS REASONABLE
BASED ON THESE INDICATORS. THIS IS ALSO THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO
SEE ANY STRONG/MARGINAL SEVERE STORMS TODAY, PROVIDED
THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP.

ANOTHER AREA OF THUNDERSTORM CONCENTRATION MAY BE OVER THE GULF
WATERS OFF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOST OF
THIS CONVECTION WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND NOT AFFECT THE GULF COAST,
WITH A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS/FEW THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ONSHORE SW
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE WILD CARD IS WHETHER A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST
COAST. IF IT DOES DEVELOP AS THE HRRR SUGGESTS, THEN SOME STORMS
WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE EAST COAST METROS FROM PALM
BEACH TO MIAMI AREA BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNLIKELY DUE TO THE INCREASING SW
WINDS WHICH COULD PREVENT OR HOLD BACK THE SEA BREEZE FROM
SETTING UP. SOMETHING TO WATCH CLOSELY TODAY.

THE AREAS OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE BEGIN
TO SPLIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING, WITH THE
FAVORED COUPLETS OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
EAST AND WEST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS IMPLIES THAT COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE AS YOU GO SOUTH, POSSIBLY
LEAVING AREAS SUCH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY MOSTLY FREE OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST WILL STILL REFLECT POPS AREA-WIDE, WITH
TREND OF HIGHER TO LOWER POPS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AS CURRENTLY
INDICATED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

.RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/MOLLEDA
LONG TERM....59/MOLLEDA
AVIATION.....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

..RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

..RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 271142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

..RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 271142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
STRONG COLD FRONT TO CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD. STORMS
ONGOING NEAR KPBI AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE TERMINAL
COULD CREATE BRIEF MVFR CIGS WITH ANY TS. ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF OTHER EAST COAST TERMINALS, AS OUTFLOW FROM CONVECTION
FURTHER WEST WHICH SPARKED THIS MORNINGS STORM, IS EXPECTED TO
STAY AWAY. HOWEVER, AS THE FRONT NEARS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
INCREASE, STORMS WILL BECOME MORE PROBABLE FURTHER SOUTH, BUT
STILL JUST HANDLED WITH VCTS FOR NOW. SOME 30KT WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE ACTUAL PASSAGE OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING.
STORMS COULD REDUCE CIG TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015/

..RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

...RESENT WITH SCA FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 270755
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 270755
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUNDAY)...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
U.S. WITH A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. THE ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WITH THIS TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN
PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND AS THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES
TO DEEPEN, THE FRONT WILL PROCEED SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A BAND OF SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO OVER THE GULF WATERS. AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS OCCUR WITH THE DEEPENING TROUGH, SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION
WILL BE UNDER WAY ESPECIALLY BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE MAINLAND.
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WHICH WILL LIMIT AND LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION BUT THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONGER STORMS GIVEN FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THUS, THERE
COULD BE SOME ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WHICH COULD APPROACH
PRODUCING NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY LINGERING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TIMING APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST THREAT
FOR THUNDER WILL BE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEGINNING
AROUND 16-17Z AND THE EAST COAST METRO REGION NEAR 20Z THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING. AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS AND SHIFTS EAST, THE COLD
FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE TONIGHT WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT. A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
AIRMASS WITH THEN FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE IN THE 50S EXCEPT LOWER TO MID
60S ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH TEMPERATURES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN
THE UPPER 40S AND 50S WITH NEAR 60 ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS
WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY COOLER FROM WHAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED OVER
THE PAST FEW WEEKS AND AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW THE AVERAGES FOR
LATE MARCH.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ENSUE NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES ZONAL WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTING TO THE EAST AND THE SURFACE
FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EAST AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY
TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN BY LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
DETERIORATING MARINE CONDITIONS WILL TAKE PLACE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS THE SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASE TO NEAR 20 KNOTS OVER THE
ATLANIC WATERS AND THEN SHIFTS TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
WIND WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH SUBSIDING
SEAS ON SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE FLOW RETURNS TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  61  73  54 /  70  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  74  59 /  50  30  10   0
MIAMI            88  64  77  60 /  50  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  63  74  54 /  70  30  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270655
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
255 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DELAYED ONSET/ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION...SO
HAVE REMOVED VCSH BEFORE 17Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BRIEF
BUT SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANTED MORE THAN
VCTS/VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MID-MORNING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...TURNING WIND TO NW AT 10-15 KT AFTER 0Z
AND ENDING PCPN CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST OF THE
LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING, SO KEPT
IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL, WITH
STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  61  74  55 /  60  40   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  75  59 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            88  68  77  59 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           81  62  73  52 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270655
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
255 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DELAYED ONSET/ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION...SO
HAVE REMOVED VCSH BEFORE 17Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BRIEF
BUT SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANTED MORE THAN
VCTS/VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MID-MORNING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...TURNING WIND TO NW AT 10-15 KT AFTER 0Z
AND ENDING PCPN CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST OF THE
LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING, SO KEPT
IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL, WITH
STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  61  74  55 /  60  40   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  75  59 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            88  68  77  59 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           81  62  73  52 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 270655
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
255 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS DELAYED ONSET/ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION...SO
HAVE REMOVED VCSH BEFORE 17Z. THEREAFTER...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. BRIEF
BUT SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE MID/LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANTED MORE THAN
VCTS/VFR. SOUTH WIND 10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL VEER SOUTHWEST
AND BECOME QUITE GUSTY BY MID-MORNING. DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GUSTS COULD REACH 30 KT. COLD FRONT ACCOMPANIES
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...TURNING WIND TO NW AT 10-15 KT AFTER 0Z
AND ENDING PCPN CHANCES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE
SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST OF THE
LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING, SO KEPT
IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT BEFORE A
COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE, VERY LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL, WITH
STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  61  74  55 /  60  40   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  63  75  59 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            88  68  77  59 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           81  62  73  52 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
STORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE IS DWINDLING THIS EVENING, BUT STILL
OCCURRING IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, WITH SOME ISOLATED CELLS. BUT
THESE SHOULD ALSO START COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST
OF THE LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING,
SO KEPT IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE,
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL,
WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

.MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
.STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
STORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE IS DWINDLING THIS EVENING, BUT STILL
OCCURRING IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, WITH SOME ISOLATED CELLS. BUT
THESE SHOULD ALSO START COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST
OF THE LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING,
SO KEPT IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE,
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL,
WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

.MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
.STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 262353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
STORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE IS DWINDLING THIS EVENING, BUT STILL
OCCURRING IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, WITH SOME ISOLATED CELLS. BUT
THESE SHOULD ALSO START COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST
OF THE LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING,
SO KEPT IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE,
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL,
WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

.MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
.STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
753 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
STORM AND SHOWER COVERAGE IS DWINDLING THIS EVENING, BUT STILL
OCCURRING IN PALM BEACH COUNTY, WITH SOME ISOLATED CELLS. BUT
THESE SHOULD ALSO START COMING TO AN END IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO,
AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE AT 500 MB WEAKENS AND MOVES AWAY FROM THE
AREA. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE SREF SHOWED A DECENT CHANCE OF AT LEAST PATCHY FOG WEST
OF THE LAKE REGION, SO ADDED THAT TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SO OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING,
SO KEPT IT IN THE INTERIOR, AND AS PATCHY FOG. BEING THE NIGHT
BEFORE A COLD FRONT IS ALSO A TYPICAL SETUP FOR FOG. OTHERWISE,
VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW, WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE AS WELL,
WITH STRONG WIND BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

.MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
.STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 262344 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

..MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
..STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262344 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

..MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
..STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 262344 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

..MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
..STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262344 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS OVER THE PALM BEACH COUNTY AREA THIS EVENING SHOULD
DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
REMAIN IN THE KPBI TAF SITE UNTIL 02Z THEN THE TAF SITE WILL GO
DRY. FOR REST OF THE TAF SITE..THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY FOR
TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE MAINLY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TONIGHT
OVER THE TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS DECREASING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
EARLY THIS EVENING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS INCREASING
FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE MORNING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE WILL ALSO BE SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE MORNING HOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL BE ADDED TO THE TAF SITES FOR FRIDAY
MORNING FOLLOWED BY VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
OVER THE TAF SITES. HOWEVER...THE CEILINGS AND VIS MAY HAVE TO BE
LOWER IN TEMPO GROUPS FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

..MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
..STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261916
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

...MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE TSTORMS FRI AFTERNOON...
...STRONG WINDS MAIN RISK...

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM LOUISIANA INTO THE NW GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SUFFICIENTLY TO SEND THIS FRONT ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY
FRI NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT...AND
WITH COOLING ALOFT...INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL LEAD TO A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE FROM THE LAKE
REGION TO THE PALM BEACHES AND INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN BROWARD...DUE
TO THE SW PREVAILING WIND FLOW AGAINST THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...THOUGH AMDAR AIRCRAFT
DATA STILL SHOWS A CAP AT AROUND 13K FT...SO STORMS MAY STRUGGLE TO
GET GOING...IF AT ALL.

THE BETTER CHANCE OF TSTORMS ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AFTER A
MOSTLY QUIET NIGHT. CONVECTION OVER THE GULF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
OFF TO THE NW TONIGHT. IN FACT, CONVECTION MAY NOT GET GOING AGAIN
ACROSS SOUTH FL UNTIL MID-LATE FRI AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE FRONT. CAN`T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS WELL AHEAD OF IT IN THE
MORNING. GIVEN THE DELAYED ACTIVITY, SUBSTANTIAL HEATING LOOKS TO
OCCUR WHILE MID LEVELS COOL. THIS WILL RESULT IN BETTER INSTABILITY
TO SUPPORT A LINE OF TSTORMS MOVING INTO SOUTH FL FROM CENTRAL FL
WITH THE CURRENT TIMING EXPECTED TO BE MID-LATE AFTERNOON NAPLES TO
WEST PALM AND LATE AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING POINTS SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER, THERE LIKELY WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR THE LINE OF STORMS TO
WEAKEN HEADING SOUTHEAST AS THE DYNAMICAL SUPPORT LIFTS NORTHEAST.
THE GRADIENT SW WIND FLOW WILL PICK UP THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY,
INHIBITING ANY EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. SO NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT STRONG CELLS AHEAD OF THE LINE. MAIN TSTORM RISK
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS/POSSIBLY TO 60 MPH (MARGINAL SEVERE
TSTORM RISK). SW WINDS AT ALL LEVELS LOOKS TO PRECLUDE A TORNADO
RISK.

RAIN WOULD BE BENEFICIAL AS IT`S BEEN DRY THE PAST 6 MONTHS
WITH SOME AREAS (EVERGLADES) RECEIVING LESS THAN HALF OF NORMAL
RAINFALL. QPF IS EXPECTED TO AVERAGE A HALF INCH WITH LOCALLY 1"+.
FLOODING RISK IS LOW THOUGH DUE TO THE FAST TSTORM MOVEMENT
EXPECTED.

BEHIND THE FRONT FRI NIGHT, MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SWEEP
DOWN THE PENINSULA. QUITE THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS EXPECTED...FROM
AROUND 70F DEWPOINT ON FRIDAY TO THE 40S ON SATURDAY! TEMPS HAVE
BEEN RUNNING ABOVE AVERAGE IN SOUTH FL FOR AWHILE...TO SAY THE
LEAST. IN FACT...TODAY IS THE 33RD CONSECUTIVE DAY OF ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPS AT MIAMI! FINALLY WE WILL GO BELOW AVERAGE THIS
WEEKEND...BEFORE RETURNING BACK ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF
NEXT WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER PREVAILING.

A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES.
THIS MAY SUBSIDE TOMORROW BEFORE THE THREAT INCREASES AGAIN ON
SATURDAY. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE MARINE AREA FRI EVENING. NW WINDS WILL
PICK UP BEHIND THIS FRONT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE LOCAL WATERS BY FRI EVENING
AS THE WINDS PICK UP...AND SEAS BUILD. WINDS/SEAS WILL GRADUALLY
LESSEN ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  61  74 /  20  60  40   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  63  75 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            76  88  68  77 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           74  81  62  73 /  20  70  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ATTM, AND
EXPECT THEIR COVERAGE TO INCREASE WHILE MOVING NNE. BEST CHC FOR
TS REMAINS AT PBI, AND THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS THIS PM, SO KEPT VCTS. ALSO A CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT EXPERIENCES SHRAS TODAY. ACTIVITY WANES THIS
EVENING. SREF/RAP13/LAMP ALL SUGGEST NO VIS REDUCTIONS TONIGHT AT
ANY TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT RAINFALL AT ANY SITE THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL MAKE THEM MORE PRONE TO MVFR VIS/CIG LATE TONIGHT
DESPITE WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POTENTIALLY WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS, LOOK MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT
APF/PBI NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. THUNDER THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER UPDATES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. BEST CHC
REMAINS AT PBI SO VCTS LEFT THERE. DIMINISHING CHCS OF PRECIP AND
WINDS WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  89  58  73 /  40  60  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  62  75 /  30  50  30  10
MIAMI            75  88  64  77 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           72  83  60  72 /  20  60  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ATTM, AND
EXPECT THEIR COVERAGE TO INCREASE WHILE MOVING NNE. BEST CHC FOR
TS REMAINS AT PBI, AND THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS THIS PM, SO KEPT VCTS. ALSO A CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT EXPERIENCES SHRAS TODAY. ACTIVITY WANES THIS
EVENING. SREF/RAP13/LAMP ALL SUGGEST NO VIS REDUCTIONS TONIGHT AT
ANY TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT RAINFALL AT ANY SITE THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL MAKE THEM MORE PRONE TO MVFR VIS/CIG LATE TONIGHT
DESPITE WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POTENTIALLY WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS, LOOK MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT
APF/PBI NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. THUNDER THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER UPDATES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. BEST CHC
REMAINS AT PBI SO VCTS LEFT THERE. DIMINISHING CHCS OF PRECIP AND
WINDS WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  89  58  73 /  40  60  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  62  75 /  30  50  30  10
MIAMI            75  88  64  77 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           72  83  60  72 /  20  60  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ATTM, AND
EXPECT THEIR COVERAGE TO INCREASE WHILE MOVING NNE. BEST CHC FOR
TS REMAINS AT PBI, AND THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS THIS PM, SO KEPT VCTS. ALSO A CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT EXPERIENCES SHRAS TODAY. ACTIVITY WANES THIS
EVENING. SREF/RAP13/LAMP ALL SUGGEST NO VIS REDUCTIONS TONIGHT AT
ANY TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT RAINFALL AT ANY SITE THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL MAKE THEM MORE PRONE TO MVFR VIS/CIG LATE TONIGHT
DESPITE WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POTENTIALLY WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS, LOOK MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT
APF/PBI NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. THUNDER THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER UPDATES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. BEST CHC
REMAINS AT PBI SO VCTS LEFT THERE. DIMINISHING CHCS OF PRECIP AND
WINDS WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  89  58  73 /  40  60  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  62  75 /  30  50  30  10
MIAMI            75  88  64  77 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           72  83  60  72 /  20  60  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST TERMINALS ATTM, AND
EXPECT THEIR COVERAGE TO INCREASE WHILE MOVING NNE. BEST CHC FOR
TS REMAINS AT PBI, AND THIS IS WHERE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE MOST
NUMEROUS THIS PM, SO KEPT VCTS. ALSO A CHC FOR MVFR CIGS AT ANY
TERMINAL THAT EXPERIENCES SHRAS TODAY. ACTIVITY WANES THIS
EVENING. SREF/RAP13/LAMP ALL SUGGEST NO VIS REDUCTIONS TONIGHT AT
ANY TERMINALS. HOWEVER, PERSISTENT RAINFALL AT ANY SITE THIS
AFTERNOON, WILL MAKE THEM MORE PRONE TO MVFR VIS/CIG LATE TONIGHT
DESPITE WHAT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME
POTENTIALLY WITH STRONGER WIND GUSTS, LOOK MOST LIKELY TO AFFECT
APF/PBI NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD TOMORROW AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT ARRIVES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

AVIATION...

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. THUNDER THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER UPDATES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. BEST CHC
REMAINS AT PBI SO VCTS LEFT THERE. DIMINISHING CHCS OF PRECIP AND
WINDS WITH SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  89  58  73 /  40  60  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  62  75 /  30  50  30  10
MIAMI            75  88  64  77 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           72  83  60  72 /  20  60  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261157
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. THUNDER THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER UPDATES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. BEST CHC
REMAINS AT PBI SO VCTS LEFT THERE. DIMINISHING CHCS OF PRECIP AND
WINDS WITH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  72  89  58 /  50  40  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  87  62 /  40  30  50  30
MIAMI            86  75  88  64 /  40  20  50  30
NAPLES           87  72  83  60 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261157
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. THUNDER THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER UPDATES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. BEST CHC
REMAINS AT PBI SO VCTS LEFT THERE. DIMINISHING CHCS OF PRECIP AND
WINDS WITH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  72  89  58 /  50  40  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  87  62 /  40  30  50  30
MIAMI            86  75  88  64 /  40  20  50  30
NAPLES           87  72  83  60 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261157
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
757 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...

COOLER TEMPS ALOFT AND BETTER MOISTURE PROFILE, IN COMBINATION
WITH STRONGER SOUTHERLY FLOW, GIVES A MUCH BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TODAY. THUNDER THREAT NOT WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH FOR VCTS TO BE ADDED TO ALL TAFS, ALTHOUGH IT MAY BECOME
NECESSARY WITH LATER UPDATES BASED ON SHORT TERM TRENDS. BEST CHC
REMAINS AT PBI SO VCTS LEFT THERE. DIMINISHING CHCS OF PRECIP AND
WINDS WITH SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  72  89  58 /  50  40  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  87  62 /  40  30  50  30
MIAMI            86  75  88  64 /  40  20  50  30
NAPLES           87  72  83  60 /  30  20  60  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260814
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  74  89  61 /  60  20  70  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  87  65 /  40  20  50  20
MIAMI            86  75  87  65 /  40  20  40  30
NAPLES           87  73  85  62 /  30  10  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260814
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
414 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENTLY INDICATING MORE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY IN
ADVANCE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FORECAST TO APPROACH THE EASTERN
SEA BOARD AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE A CONSISTENT CONSENSUS WITH THE
FRONT PASSING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND PASSING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT THEN INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON
SATURDAY WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR TODAY...THE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY WITH MASS AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE INCREASING...ALTHOUGH
MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA
THIS AFTERNOON. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S AROUND 1.5
TO 1.7 INCHES. A DEEP TROUGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WESTERN GULF
WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PERTURBATIONS REACHING THE EASTERN GULF AND COULD INFLUENCE THE
REGION LATER TODAY...WITH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE. THE
GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE VERTICAL WIND PROFILE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SUPPORTIVE OF ANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES.

FOR FRIDAY...THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THE DEEPER MOISTURE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING TO ENTER THE REGION AROUND 18Z ON
FRIDAY. THE COMBINATION OF DAY TIME HEATING...AVAILABLE MOISTURE
AND A DEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN GULF
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL DECREASE DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FAVORABLE
POSITION OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A VERTICAL WIND
PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF HAVING STRONGER GUSTS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS AROUND 12Z SATURDAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW USHERING
IN A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND LIKELY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
REACH NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS LATE FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY WITH SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

IF THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE REGION ON SATURDAY MORNING AS
CURRENTLY FORECAST...A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS FORECAST
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE FORECAST TO GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS FOR A FEW HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AND COULD PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  74  89  61 /  60  20  70  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  87  65 /  40  20  50  20
MIAMI            86  75  87  65 /  40  20  40  30
NAPLES           87  73  85  62 /  30  10  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 260548
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
148 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
POSSIBLE VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KAPF AND KTMB BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
HOWEVER...DWPT/TEMP DISTANCE IS GREATER EARLY THIS MORNING AND SE
FLOW A BIT STRONGER...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FOG WILL REACH
MOST TERMINALS. BY MID-MORNING...FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KPBI WHERE VCTS IN PLACE LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE THERE
IS HIGHEST FOR A FEW TSRA...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE NEAR
ANY SITE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE OUT OF SSE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS BY NOON...THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPDATE...54/BNB

$$

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE UPPER TROUGH/STRONG COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE GULF COAST STATES, WILL ALLOW SSE TO S WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING ALOFT WILL
ADD ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE MORE PROBABLE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY EAST COAST AND THE INTERIOR.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT PUSH
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE UPPER JET EASILY DIVING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHOVE THE BOUNDARY CLEANLY THROUGH THE CWA.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOWING 30KTS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DECENT WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL NEAR AROUND PEAK HEATING.

MUCH COOLER AND IMPRESSIVELY DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN A GOOD LOCATION FOR
DECOUPLING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTH FLORIDA IN
QUITE SOME TIME, CONSIDERING THE WARM PATTERN THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

H5 TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
REGARDING A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER
A DRIER AND GRADUALLY WARMER BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH GREATER
WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVELS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING SEAS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  74  89  61 /  60  20  70  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  87  65 /  40  20  50  20
MIAMI            86  75  87  65 /  40  20  40  30
NAPLES           87  73  85  62 /  30  10  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260548
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
148 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
POSSIBLE VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KAPF AND KTMB BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
HOWEVER...DWPT/TEMP DISTANCE IS GREATER EARLY THIS MORNING AND SE
FLOW A BIT STRONGER...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FOG WILL REACH
MOST TERMINALS. BY MID-MORNING...FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KPBI WHERE VCTS IN PLACE LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE THERE
IS HIGHEST FOR A FEW TSRA...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE NEAR
ANY SITE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE OUT OF SSE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS BY NOON...THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPDATE...54/BNB

$$

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE UPPER TROUGH/STRONG COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE GULF COAST STATES, WILL ALLOW SSE TO S WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING ALOFT WILL
ADD ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE MORE PROBABLE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY EAST COAST AND THE INTERIOR.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT PUSH
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE UPPER JET EASILY DIVING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHOVE THE BOUNDARY CLEANLY THROUGH THE CWA.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOWING 30KTS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DECENT WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL NEAR AROUND PEAK HEATING.

MUCH COOLER AND IMPRESSIVELY DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN A GOOD LOCATION FOR
DECOUPLING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTH FLORIDA IN
QUITE SOME TIME, CONSIDERING THE WARM PATTERN THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

H5 TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
REGARDING A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER
A DRIER AND GRADUALLY WARMER BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH GREATER
WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVELS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING SEAS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  74  89  61 /  60  20  70  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  87  65 /  40  20  50  20
MIAMI            86  75  87  65 /  40  20  40  30
NAPLES           87  73  85  62 /  30  10  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 260548
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
148 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
POSSIBLE VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KAPF AND KTMB BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
HOWEVER...DWPT/TEMP DISTANCE IS GREATER EARLY THIS MORNING AND SE
FLOW A BIT STRONGER...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FOG WILL REACH
MOST TERMINALS. BY MID-MORNING...FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KPBI WHERE VCTS IN PLACE LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE THERE
IS HIGHEST FOR A FEW TSRA...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE NEAR
ANY SITE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE OUT OF SSE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS BY NOON...THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPDATE...54/BNB

$$

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE UPPER TROUGH/STRONG COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE GULF COAST STATES, WILL ALLOW SSE TO S WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING ALOFT WILL
ADD ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE MORE PROBABLE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY EAST COAST AND THE INTERIOR.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT PUSH
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE UPPER JET EASILY DIVING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHOVE THE BOUNDARY CLEANLY THROUGH THE CWA.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOWING 30KTS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DECENT WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL NEAR AROUND PEAK HEATING.

MUCH COOLER AND IMPRESSIVELY DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN A GOOD LOCATION FOR
DECOUPLING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTH FLORIDA IN
QUITE SOME TIME, CONSIDERING THE WARM PATTERN THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

H5 TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
REGARDING A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER
A DRIER AND GRADUALLY WARMER BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH GREATER
WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVELS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING SEAS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  74  89  61 /  60  20  70  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  87  65 /  40  20  50  20
MIAMI            86  75  87  65 /  40  20  40  30
NAPLES           87  73  85  62 /  30  10  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260548
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
148 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT
POSSIBLE VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT KAPF AND KTMB BASED ON PERSISTENCE.
HOWEVER...DWPT/TEMP DISTANCE IS GREATER EARLY THIS MORNING AND SE
FLOW A BIT STRONGER...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FOG WILL REACH
MOST TERMINALS. BY MID-MORNING...FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON. VCSH AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT KPBI WHERE VCTS IN PLACE LATE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE THERE
IS HIGHEST FOR A FEW TSRA...BUT ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE NEAR
ANY SITE DURING AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL INCREASE OUT OF SSE TO AROUND 10-15 KTS BY NOON...THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 844 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

UPDATE...54/BNB

$$

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE UPPER TROUGH/STRONG COLD
FRONT ENTERING THE GULF COAST STATES, WILL ALLOW SSE TO S WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING ALOFT WILL
ADD ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO
BE MORE PROBABLE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY EAST COAST AND THE INTERIOR.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT PUSH
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE UPPER JET EASILY DIVING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHOVE THE BOUNDARY CLEANLY THROUGH THE CWA.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOWING 30KTS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DECENT WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL NEAR AROUND PEAK HEATING.

MUCH COOLER AND IMPRESSIVELY DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN A GOOD LOCATION FOR
DECOUPLING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTH FLORIDA IN
QUITE SOME TIME, CONSIDERING THE WARM PATTERN THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

H5 TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
REGARDING A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER
A DRIER AND GRADUALLY WARMER BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH GREATER
WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVELS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING SEAS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  74  89  61 /  60  20  70  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  87  65 /  40  20  50  20
MIAMI            86  75  87  65 /  40  20  40  30
NAPLES           87  73  85  62 /  30  10  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 260044
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
844 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WHERE THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES COLLIDED. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM
BEACH COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE THE SHOWERS
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOST OF HEATING. THEREFORE...THE POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED TO LOW END CHANCE FOR METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND
SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY FOG TONIGHT IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE ON THU IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...WITH EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM BY THU AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAF FOR ALL
AIRPORTS EXCEPT PBI WHERE VCTS WAS INCLUDED AFTER 20Z THU.

$$

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

H85-H70 MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE, CAN LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
INTO THIS EVENING. AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF COAST STATES, WILL ALLOW
SSE TO S WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS AND
COOLING ALOFT WILL ADD ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE PROBABLE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY EAST
COAST AND THE INTERIOR.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT PUSH
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE UPPER JET EASILY DIVING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHOVE THE BOUNDARY CLEANLY THROUGH THE CWA.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOWING 30KTS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DECENT WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL NEAR AROUND PEAK HEATING.

MUCH COOLER AND IMPRESSIVELY DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN A GOOD LOCATION FOR
DECOUPLING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTH FLORIDA IN
QUITE SOME TIME, CONSIDERING THE WARM PATTERN THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

H5 TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
REGARDING A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER
A DRIER AND GRADUALLY WARMER BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH GREATER
WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVELS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING SEAS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  87  74  89 /  30  60  20  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  84  74  87 /  20  40  20  50
MIAMI            74  86  75  87 /  20  40  20  40
NAPLES           71  87  73  85 /  10  30  10  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 260044
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
844 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WHERE THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES COLLIDED. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM
BEACH COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE THE SHOWERS
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOST OF HEATING. THEREFORE...THE POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED TO LOW END CHANCE FOR METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND
SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY FOG TONIGHT IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE ON THU IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...WITH EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM BY THU AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAF FOR ALL
AIRPORTS EXCEPT PBI WHERE VCTS WAS INCLUDED AFTER 20Z THU.

$$

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

H85-H70 MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE, CAN LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
INTO THIS EVENING. AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF COAST STATES, WILL ALLOW
SSE TO S WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS AND
COOLING ALOFT WILL ADD ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE PROBABLE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY EAST
COAST AND THE INTERIOR.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT PUSH
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE UPPER JET EASILY DIVING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHOVE THE BOUNDARY CLEANLY THROUGH THE CWA.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOWING 30KTS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DECENT WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL NEAR AROUND PEAK HEATING.

MUCH COOLER AND IMPRESSIVELY DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN A GOOD LOCATION FOR
DECOUPLING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTH FLORIDA IN
QUITE SOME TIME, CONSIDERING THE WARM PATTERN THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

H5 TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
REGARDING A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER
A DRIER AND GRADUALLY WARMER BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH GREATER
WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVELS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING SEAS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  87  74  89 /  30  60  20  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  84  74  87 /  20  40  20  50
MIAMI            74  86  75  87 /  20  40  20  40
NAPLES           71  87  73  85 /  10  30  10  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260044
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
844 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WHERE THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES COLLIDED. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM
BEACH COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE THE SHOWERS
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOST OF HEATING. THEREFORE...THE POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED TO LOW END CHANCE FOR METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND
SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY FOG TONIGHT IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE ON THU IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...WITH EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM BY THU AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAF FOR ALL
AIRPORTS EXCEPT PBI WHERE VCTS WAS INCLUDED AFTER 20Z THU.

$$

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

H85-H70 MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE, CAN LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
INTO THIS EVENING. AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF COAST STATES, WILL ALLOW
SSE TO S WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS AND
COOLING ALOFT WILL ADD ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE PROBABLE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY EAST
COAST AND THE INTERIOR.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT PUSH
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE UPPER JET EASILY DIVING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHOVE THE BOUNDARY CLEANLY THROUGH THE CWA.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOWING 30KTS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DECENT WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL NEAR AROUND PEAK HEATING.

MUCH COOLER AND IMPRESSIVELY DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN A GOOD LOCATION FOR
DECOUPLING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTH FLORIDA IN
QUITE SOME TIME, CONSIDERING THE WARM PATTERN THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

H5 TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
REGARDING A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER
A DRIER AND GRADUALLY WARMER BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH GREATER
WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVELS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING SEAS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  87  74  89 /  30  60  20  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  84  74  87 /  20  40  20  50
MIAMI            74  86  75  87 /  20  40  20  40
NAPLES           71  87  73  85 /  10  30  10  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 260044
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
844 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WHERE THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES COLLIDED. THESE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND SOUTHERN PALM
BEACH COUNTIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...WHILE THE SHOWERS
SLOWLY DISSIPATE DUE TO THE LOST OF HEATING. THEREFORE...THE POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED TO LOW END CHANCE FOR METRO AREAS OF BROWARD AND
SOUTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THE WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY
FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALLOWING FOR THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TO CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALSO
ALLOW FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
POSSIBILITY OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
THEREFORE...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR LATE TONIGHT.

FOG COULD ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THEREFORE...PATCHY
TO AREAS OF FOG WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THESE AREAS FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

THE LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING A SHORT WAVE OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM
THE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY FOG TONIGHT IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE ON THU IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...WITH EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM BY THU AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAF FOR ALL
AIRPORTS EXCEPT PBI WHERE VCTS WAS INCLUDED AFTER 20Z THU.

$$

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

H85-H70 MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE, CAN LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
INTO THIS EVENING. AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF COAST STATES, WILL ALLOW
SSE TO S WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS AND
COOLING ALOFT WILL ADD ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE PROBABLE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY EAST
COAST AND THE INTERIOR.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT PUSH
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE UPPER JET EASILY DIVING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHOVE THE BOUNDARY CLEANLY THROUGH THE CWA.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOWING 30KTS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DECENT WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL NEAR AROUND PEAK HEATING.

MUCH COOLER AND IMPRESSIVELY DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN A GOOD LOCATION FOR
DECOUPLING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTH FLORIDA IN
QUITE SOME TIME, CONSIDERING THE WARM PATTERN THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

H5 TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
REGARDING A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER
A DRIER AND GRADUALLY WARMER BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH GREATER
WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVELS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING SEAS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  87  74  89 /  30  60  20  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  84  74  87 /  20  40  20  50
MIAMI            74  86  75  87 /  20  40  20  40
NAPLES           71  87  73  85 /  10  30  10  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252338
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY FOG TONIGHT IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE ON THU IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...WITH EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM BY THU AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAF FOR ALL
AIRPORTS EXCEPT PBI WHERE VCTS WAS INCLUDED AFTER 20Z THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

H85-H70 MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE, CAN LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
INTO THIS EVENING. AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF COAST STATES, WILL ALLOW
SSE TO S WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS AND
COOLING ALOFT WILL ADD ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE PROBABLE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY EAST
COAST AND THE INTERIOR.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT PUSH
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE UPPER JET EASILY DIVING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHOVE THE BOUNDARY CLEANLY THROUGH THE CWA.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOWING 30KTS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DECENT WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL NEAR AROUND PEAK HEATING.

MUCH COOLER AND IMPRESSIVELY DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN A GOOD LOCATION FOR
DECOUPLING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTH FLORIDA IN
QUITE SOME TIME, CONSIDERING THE WARM PATTERN THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

H5 TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
REGARDING A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER
A DRIER AND GRADUALLY WARMER BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH GREATER
WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVELS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING SEAS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  75  87  74 /  20  20  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  84  74 /  20  20  40  20
MIAMI            87  74  86  75 /  20  20  40  20
NAPLES           85  71  87  73 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE





000
FXUS62 KMFL 252338
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY FOG TONIGHT IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN OVER THE INTERIOR AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT. INCREASING
MOISTURE WITH SOME CONVERGENCE ON THU IS FORECAST TO LEAD TO
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT...WITH EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
THUNDERSTORM BY THU AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED VCSH IN THE TAF FOR ALL
AIRPORTS EXCEPT PBI WHERE VCTS WAS INCLUDED AFTER 20Z THU.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

H85-H70 MOISTURE INCREASING SLOWLY FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHEN COMBINED WITH
DEVELOPING SEA BREEZE, CAN LEAD TO SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
INTO THIS EVENING. AS A LARGE SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD TONIGHT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE UPPER
TROUGH/STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING THE GULF COAST STATES, WILL ALLOW
SSE TO S WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THURSDAY. FALLING HEIGHTS AND
COOLING ALOFT WILL ADD ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SHOWERS AND EVEN A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO BE MORE PROBABLE TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY EAST
COAST AND THE INTERIOR.

WINDS WILL VEER TO THE S AND SW FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE REGION
AND FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SIGNIFICANT PUSH
FROM THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE UPPER JET EASILY DIVING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL SHOVE THE BOUNDARY CLEANLY THROUGH THE CWA.
GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT, WITH BUFKIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER SHOWING 30KTS AT THE BOTTOM OF THE MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE, ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE
CAPABILITY OF PRODUCING DECENT WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW STRONGER
STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CWA, WHEN THE BOUNDARY WILL NEAR AROUND PEAK HEATING.

MUCH COOLER AND IMPRESSIVELY DRIER THIS WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTERIOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN A GOOD LOCATION FOR
DECOUPLING SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH THE COLDEST TEMPS IN SOUTH FLORIDA IN
QUITE SOME TIME, CONSIDERING THE WARM PATTERN THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

H5 TROUGH LIFTS QUICKLY AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, WITH ZONAL
FLOW DEVELOPING. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/ECMWF
REGARDING A SHORTWAVE ENTERING THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE MIDDLE
AND END OF NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN AFTER
A DRIER AND GRADUALLY WARMER BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WITH GREATER
WIND SPEEDS FROM THE SOUTH INTO THURSDAY. WINDS VEER TO THE SW AND
INCREASE TO POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVELS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH INCREASING SEAS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE THIS WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  75  87  74 /  20  20  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  84  74 /  20  20  40  20
MIAMI            87  74  86  75 /  20  20  40  20
NAPLES           85  71  87  73 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE




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