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000
FXUS62 KMFL 010035 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
835 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AS THE STRONGER COLD
FRONT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
THIS EVENING. SO NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO THE FORECAST
FOR TONIGHT.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

AVIATION...

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS SINKING INTO CENTRAL FL, BEHIND A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS, WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE NW. VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

.MUCH COOLER AIR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS...

SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS BY THIS EVENING PUSHING THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...ISOLATED POPS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING DRY FOR THIS HALLOWEEN EVENING INTO
THE HALLOWEEN NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINA COAST ON
SATURDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA SATURDAY AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL BE DRY WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL DELIVER MUCH COOLER AIR TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.

LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, EXCEPT AROUND 50 EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND AROUND 40
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS TO AROUND
10 MPH OVER THE METRO AREAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING MORE TO A NORTH/NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY...AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL START TO SLOWLY RECOVER BUT WILL
STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR THE
RECORD LOWS AND RECORD COOL MAXIMUMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MORE
ON THIS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND
FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO NEAR CLIMO CONDITIONS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND BREEZY TONIGHT, INCREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...A SCA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY SWING TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 FEET ON SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO 8 TO 10 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT...REMAINING THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE NEAR-SHORE SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 7 FEET
ON SATURDAY AS THE OFFSHORE SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 10 TO 12
FEET. THE GULF WATER SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY
SUNDAY TO LESS THAN 7 FEET. GULF STREAM WAVES NEAR 10 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE ATLANTIC RIP CURRENTS BUILDING LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST LOWS...RECORD LOWS...FORECAST HIGHS...AND
RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY 11/2/14.

             11/2/14              11/2/14
CITIES    FORECAST LOWS         RECORD LOWS
MIA            51                54 - 1993
FLL            50                51 - 1957
PBI            47                51 - 1993
APF            48                47 - 1993

            11/2/14              11/2/14
CITIES    FORECAST MAX    RECORD COOL MAXIMUM HIGHS
MIA            74                73 - 1949/1931
FLL            73                72 - 1931
PBI            72                72 - 1964
APF            72                75 - 1962

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE BELOW 35 PERCENT
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ERC (ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT) WILL BE IN THE LOWER
20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH. THEREFORE...NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  72  47  72 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  63  74  51  73 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            64  76  51  74 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  70  48  72 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLZ173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 312344
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...

MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR IS SINKING INTO CENTRAL FL, BEHIND A
SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THUS, WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE NW. VFR WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

..MUCH COOLER AIR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS...

SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS BY THIS EVENING PUSHING THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...ISOLATED POPS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING DRY FOR THIS HALLOWEEN EVENING INTO
THE HALLOWEEN NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINA COAST ON
SATURDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA SATURDAY AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL BE DRY WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL DELIVER MUCH COOLER AIR TO
SOUTH FLORIDA.

LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, EXCEPT AROUND 50 EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND AROUND 40
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS TO AROUND
10 MPH OVER THE METRO AREAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING MORE TO A NORTH/NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY...AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST. THE AIRMASS WILL START TO SLOWLY RECOVER BUT WILL
STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR THE
RECORD LOWS AND RECORD COOL MAXIMUMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MORE
ON THIS IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND
FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM UP TO NEAR CLIMO CONDITIONS
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST AND BREEZY TONIGHT, INCREASING
OVER THE WEEKEND. THEREFORE...A SCA WILL BE IN PLACE FOR ALL OF
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
GUSTY WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY SWING TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC SEAS WILL BUILD TO 7 FEET ON SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO 8 TO 10 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT...REMAINING THROUGH SUNDAY. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE NEAR-SHORE SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 7 FEET
ON SATURDAY AS THE OFFSHORE SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 10 TO 12
FEET. THE GULF WATER SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AND BY
SUNDAY TO LESS THAN 7 FEET. GULF STREAM WAVES NEAR 10 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT.

THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE ATLANTIC RIP CURRENTS BUILDING LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST LOWS...RECORD LOWS...FORECAST HIGHS...AND
RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY 11/2/14.

             11/2/14              11/2/14
CITIES    FORECAST LOWS         RECORD LOWS
MIA            51                54 - 1993
FLL            50                51 - 1957
PBI            47                51 - 1993
APF            48                47 - 1993

            11/2/14              11/2/14
CITIES    FORECAST MAX    RECORD COOL MAXIMUM HIGHS
MIA            74                73 - 1949/1931
FLL            73                72 - 1931
PBI            72                72 - 1964
APF            72                75 - 1962

FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE BELOW 35 PERCENT
BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SEVERAL HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE ERC (ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT) WILL BE IN THE LOWER
20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH. THEREFORE...NO
FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  72  47  72 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  63  74  51  73 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            64  76  51  74 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  70  48  72 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLZ173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 312000
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
400 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

...MUCH COOLER AIR THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH
ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS...

.SHORT TERM...
A COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FLORIDA KEYS BY THIS EVENING PUSHING THE
ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEREFORE...ISOLATED POPS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE GOING DRY FOR THIS HALLOWEEN EVENING INTO
THE HALLOWEEN NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO DEVELOP OVER THE CAROLINA COAST ON
SATURDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A STRONGER COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA SATURDAY AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FRONT WILL BE A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH NO RAINFALL EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT, EXCEPT WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS IN TURN
WILL BRING IN THE MUCH COOLER AIR TO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE NORTH.

LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, EXCEPT AROUND 50 EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND AROUND 40
OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THE WINDS SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL STILL BE AROUND 5 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS TO AROUND
10 MPH OVER THE METRO AREAS. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIND CHILL READINGS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT UPPER
40S TO NEAR 50 EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND MID TO UPPER 30S WEST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING MORE TO A NORTH/NORTHEAST DIRECTION ON
SUNDAY...AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE AIRMASS TO START TO SLOWLY
RECOVER BUT WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE LOWS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL BE NEAR THE
RECORD LOWS AND LOW MAXIMUMS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. MORE ON THIS
IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.


.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND
FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME AND CONTINUE TO MODIFY THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH
IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO WARM
UP TO NEAR CLIMO CONDITIONS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH ANY WIND GUSTS GETTING UP TO
CLOSE TO GALE FORCE CONDITIONS. THEREFORE...A SCA WILL BE IN PLACE
FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE WINDS WILL THEN SLOWLY SWING TO A NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN IN THE WINDY
CONDITIONS.

THE BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHERLY WINDS THIS WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO BUILD TO 7 FEET ON SATURDAY BEFORE INCREASING
TO 8 TO 10 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH SUNDAY.
FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE NEAR-SHORE SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 7
FEET ON SATURDAY AS THE OFFSHORE SEAS WILL QUICKLY BUILD TO 10 TO
12 FEET. THE GULF WATER SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
BY SUNDAY BE LESS THAN 7 FEET.

THESE WINDS WILL LEAD TO RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE GULF COAST BEACHES
THIS WEEKEND WITH THE ATLANTIC RIP CURRENTS BUILDING LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE FORECAST LOWS...RECORD LOWS...FORECAST HIGHS...AND
RECORD HIGHS FOR SUNDAY 11/2/14.

             11/2/14              11/2/14
CITIES    FORECAST LOWS         RECORD LOWS
MIA            51                54 - 1993
FLL            50                51 - 1957
PBI            47                51 - 1993
APF            48                47 - 1993

            11/2/14              11/2/14
CITIES    FORECAST MAX    RECORD COOL MAXIMUM HIGHS
MIA            74                73 - 1949/1931
FLL            73                72 - 1931
PBI            72                72 - 1964
APF            72                75 - 1962

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO BELOW 35
PERCENT BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE ERC (ENERGY RELEASE COMPONENT) WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 20S AND THE 20 FOOT WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 15 MPH.
THEREFORE...NO FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS
WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST ON THESE CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  59  72  47  72 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  63  74  50  73 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            64  76  51  74 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  70  48  72 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR FLZ173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ610-630-650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT SATURDAY TO 7 AM EST SUNDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 311730
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WINDS
TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT. THERE IS
ALSO A VERY SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STRIKES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE FRONT, AND QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. TOMORROW WILL VFR CONDITIONS WITH
WINDS PICKING UP IN THE MORNING AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS,
WITH SOME GUSTS OF AROUND 20 KTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING, AS
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER, STILL THINK THIS WILL BE A VERY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT, SO
DID NOT ADD MENTION OF THUNDER AFTER 12Z. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY. A STRONGER
FRONT WILL BRING COLDER CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY
EVENING...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...MODERATE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. 7Z SFC OBS
DEPICT COLD FRONT ALONG I-4 CORRIDOR...WHERE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
FORMED. COOLER AREA LAGS WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLE IN THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...A RELATIVE WARM MORNING IS IN STORE...AS TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS. THE PRESENTLY SLOW-MOVING
FRONT WILL GAIN SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM THIS MORNING AS VORTICITY
LOBE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE TN
VLY...PIVOTS AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THIS
MORNING. AS IT DOES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEING TO BUILD INTO
FLORIDA. ESTIMATED TIMING OF FROPA WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE ENTERING
NW CWA...REACHING NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
CLEARING THE SE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST METROPOLITAN AREAS
WHERE PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AT PEAK HEATING...BUT THE SYSTEM IS
MOISTURE- AND DYNAMICALLY-STARVED...SO MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY
DRY. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER AIR
ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING...AND DESPITE BEING OVERSHADOW BY THE
UPCOMING WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...MINIMA WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR AT MANY LOCATIONS. FOLLOWING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID- 80S....OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
LOW-50S OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...TO MID-60S ALONG THE
COASTS.

SYNOPTICALLY...A POWERFUL H5 LOPRES WILL DIVE OUT OF WEST GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. AS IT
DOES...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL GATHER STRENGTH AND TREK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AS THE OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER...THE FRONT WILL SPILL INTO SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS MODIFIED-
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS ENVELOPES THE STATE. DRY AIR WILL
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT FROPA WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY A
MARKED INCREASE IN NW WINDS. MINIMA SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE COLDEST
SINCE FEBRUARY...AND WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40F NORTHWEST
INTERIOR...TO M/U40S NAPLES/WEST PALM BEACH...TO MID 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. RECORD LOWS WILL LIKELY BE
THREATENED...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. COOL AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE SUNDAY...WITH MAXIMA STRUGGLING TO REACH LOW 70S
DESPITE AMPLE SUN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF FLORIDA...EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN...AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE AND GENERAL LOPRES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL LEAD TO GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN JUST OFF THE
SURFACE...SO PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT A SHOWER REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SO SPARSE THAT DOESNT WARRANT MENTION
IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY...RETURNING TO
NORMAL /OR EVEN ABOVE/ BY TUESDAY.

THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIP CURRENT
RISK FOR THE FIRST HAVE OF NEXT WEEK ON ATLANTIC BEACHES.

MARINE...
THE PASSAGE OF TWO COLD FRONTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND...AS WAVES
INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 9 FEET. FOR ATLANTIC WATERS...HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLIMATE...
HERES A LOOK A THE FORECAST HIGH AND LOW AT RESPECTIVE CLIMATE
SITES SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DAY.

NOV 2
LOCATION/ FCST MIN / FCST MAX / RECORD LOW MIN / RECORD LOW MAX

MIAMI           53F 74F RECORDS - 54F 1993 73 1949
FT LAUDERDALE   51F 74F RECORDS - 51F 1957 72 1931
WEST PALM BEACH 48F 73F RECORDS - 51F 1993 72 1964
NAPLES          48F 73F RECORDS - 47F 1993 75 1962


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  74  48  73 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  63  78  51  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            63  78  53  74 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           64  71  48  73 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 311147
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS AND POPS FOR THIS MORNING, AS
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF COAST.
HOWEVER, STILL THINK THIS WILL BE A VERY ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT, SO
DID NOT ADD MENTION OF THUNDER AFTER 12Z. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL BRING SOME ISOLATED
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH IT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING WINDS
TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT, WHICH MAY BECOME GUSTY AT
TIMES. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS FRONT. THESE
SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS TO LOCALIZED AREAS ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE
FRONT, AND QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY. A STRONGER
FRONT WILL BRING COLDER CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY
EVENING...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...MODERATE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. 7Z SFC OBS
DEPICT COLD FRONT ALONG I-4 CORRIDOR...WHERE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
FORMED. COOLER AREA LAGS WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLE IN THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...A RELATIVE WARM MORNING IS IN STORE...AS TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS. THE PRESENTLY SLOW-MOVING
FRONT WILL GAIN SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM THIS MORNING AS VORTICITY
LOBE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE TN
VLY...PIVOTS AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THIS
MORNING. AS IT DOES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEING TO BUILD INTO
FLORIDA. ESTIMATED TIMING OF FROPA WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE ENTERING
NW CWA...REACHING NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
CLEARING THE SE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST METROPOLITAN AREAS
WHERE PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AT PEAK HEATING...BUT THE SYSTEM IS
MOISTURE- AND DYNAMICALLY-STARVED...SO MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY
DRY. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER AIR
ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING...AND DESPITE BEING OVERSHADOW BY THE
UPCOMING WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...MINIMA WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR AT MANY LOCATIONS. FOLLOWING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID- 80S....OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
LOW-50S OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...TO MID-60S ALONG THE
COASTS.

SYNOPTICALLY...A POWERFUL H5 LOPRES WILL DIVE OUT OF WEST GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. AS IT
DOES...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL GATHER STRENGTH AND TREK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AS THE OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER...THE FRONT WILL SPILL INTO SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS MODIFIED-
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS ENVELOPES THE STATE. DRY AIR WILL
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT FROPA WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY A
MARKED INCREASE IN NW WINDS. MINIMA SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE COLDEST
SINCE FEBRUARY...AND WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40F NORTHWEST
INTERIOR...TO M/U40S NAPLES/WEST PALM BEACH...TO MID 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. RECORD LOWS WILL LIKELY BE
THREATENED...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. COOL AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE SUNDAY...WITH MAXIMA STRUGGLING TO REACH LOW 70S
DESPITE AMPLE SUN.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF FLORIDA...EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN...AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE AND GENERAL LOPRES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL LEAD TO GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN JUST OFF THE
SURFACE...SO PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT A SHOWER REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SO SPARSE THAT DOESNT WARRANT MENTION
IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY...RETURNING TO
NORMAL /OR EVEN ABOVE/ BY TUESDAY.

THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIP CURRENT
RISK FOR THE FIRST HAVE OF NEXT WEEK ON ATLANTIC BEACHES.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRAS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHRAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT KAPF AROUND 20Z WITH THE EAST COAST
SITES SHORTLY THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHRA.

MARINE...
THE PASSAGE OF TWO COLD FRONTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND...AS WAVES
INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 9 FEET. FOR ATLANTIC WATERS...HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CLIMATE...
HERES A LOOK A THE FORECAST HIGH AND LOW AT RESPECTIVE CLIMATE
SITES SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DAY.

NOV 2
LOCATION/ FCST MIN / FCST MAX / RECORD LOW MIN / RECORD LOW MAX

MIAMI           53F 74F RECORDS - 54F 1993 73 1949
FT LAUDERDALE   51F 74F RECORDS - 51F 1957 72 1931
WEST PALM BEACH 48F 73F RECORDS - 51F 1993 72 1964
NAPLES          48F 73F RECORDS - 47F 1993 75 1962


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  60  74  48 /  20   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  63  78  51 /  30   0   0   0
MIAMI            85  63  78  53 /  30   0   0   0
NAPLES           81  64  71  48 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 310832
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
432 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE AREA TODAY. A STRONGER
FRONT WILL BRING COLDER CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY
EVENING...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY. THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...MODERATE TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH BREEZY
EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAJOR WEATHER CHANGES UNDERWAY EARLY THIS MORNING. 7Z SFC OBS
DEPICT COLD FRONT ALONG I-4 CORRIDOR...WHERE A FEW SHOWERS HAVE
FORMED. COOLER AREA LAGS WELL BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WITH PARTS OF
THE PANHANDLE IN THE UPPER 40S THIS MORNING. ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA...A RELATIVE WARM MORNING IS IN STORE...AS TEMPERATURES
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS. THE PRESENTLY SLOW-MOVING
FRONT WILL GAIN SOUTHWARD MOMENTUM THIS MORNING AS VORTICITY
LOBE...CURRENTLY EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE TN
VLY...PIVOTS AROUND AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THIS
MORNING. AS IT DOES...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEING TO BUILD INTO
FLORIDA. ESTIMATED TIMING OF FROPA WILL BE AFTER SUNRISE ENTERING
NW CWA...REACHING NAPLES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN
CLEARING THE SE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS COULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST METROPOLITAN AREAS
WHERE PASSAGE WILL OCCUR AT PEAK HEATING...BUT THE SYSTEM IS
MOISTURE- AND DYNAMICALLY-STARVED...SO MANY LOCATIONS WILL STAY
DRY. ANY SHOWERS SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY EARLY EVENING. COOLER AIR
ARRIVES LATER THIS EVENING...AND DESPITE BEING OVERSHADOW BY THE
UPCOMING WEATHER THIS WEEKEND...MINIMA WILL BE THE COLDEST OF THE
SEASON THUS FAR AT MANY LOCATIONS. FOLLOWING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID- 80S....OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
LOW-50S OVER GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES...TO MID-60S ALONG THE
COASTS.

SYNOPTICALLY...A POWERFUL H5 LOPRES WILL DIVE OUT OF WEST GREAT
LAKES TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. AS IT
DOES...A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL GATHER STRENGTH AND TREK INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. AS THE OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS
FURTHER...THE FRONT WILL SPILL INTO SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LATE IN THE DAY AS MODIFIED-
CONTINENTAL POLAR AIRMASS ENVELOPES THE STATE. DRY AIR WILL
PRECLUDE ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT FROPA WILL BE NOTICEABLE BY A
MARKED INCREASE IN NW WINDS. MINIMA SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE COLDEST
SINCE FEBRUARY...AND WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 40F NORTHWEST
INTERIOR...TO M/U40S NAPLES/WEST PALM BEACH...TO MID 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST. RECORD LOWS WILL LIKELY BE
THREATENED...SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS. COOL AIR
REMAINS IN PLACE SUNDAY...WITH MAXIMA STRUGGLING TO REACH LOW 70S
DESPITE AMPLE SUN.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF FLORIDA...EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WILL BE QUICK TO RETURN...AND TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT SUNDAY
WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT. TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN MID-ATLANTIC RIDGE AND GENERAL LOPRES
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WILL LEAD TO GUSTY EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL RETURN JUST OFF THE
SURFACE...SO PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT A SHOWER REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUT
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SO SPARSE THAT DOESNT WARRANT MENTION
IN THE GRIDS. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY...RETURNING TO
NORMAL /OR EVEN ABOVE/ BY TUESDAY.

THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RIP CURRENT
RISK FOR THE FIRST HAVE OF NEXT WEEK ON ATLANTIC BEACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRAS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHRAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT KAPF AROUND 20Z WITH THE EAST COAST
SITES SHORTLY THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE PASSAGE OF TWO COLD FRONTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO
PROGRESSIVELY STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS AND INCREASING SEAS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND...AS WAVES
INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 9 FEET. FOR ATLANTIC WATERS...HAZARDOUS
MARINE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERES A LOOK A THE FORECAST HIGH AND LOW AT RESPECTIVE CLIMATE
SITES SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE RECORD LOWS FOR THE DAY.

NOV 2
LOCATION/ FCST MIN / FCST MAX / RECORD LOW MIN / RECORD LOW MAX

MIAMI           53F 74F RECORDS - 54F 1993 73 1949
FT LAUDERDALE   51F 74F RECORDS - 51F 1957 72 1931
WEST PALM BEACH 48F 73F RECORDS - 51F 1993 72 1964
NAPLES          48F 73F RECORDS - 47F 1993 75 1962

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  60  74  48 /  20   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  63  78  51 /  30   0   0   0
MIAMI            85  63  78  53 /  30   0   0   0
NAPLES           81  64  71  48 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 310604
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
204 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHRAS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OUT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHRAS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT KAPF AROUND 20Z WITH THE EAST COAST
SITES SHORTLY THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 803 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND LIKELY OVER NIGHT. A WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AROUND THE 12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME WEAK
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS FORECAST TO PREVAIL. AFTER 18Z ON
FRIDAY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS FORECAST WITH
VCSH ASSIGNED ALL TERMINALS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST,
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS, FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE ENTERS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT, SHOWERS SHOULD PASS
INTO OUR GULF WATERS AND ALSO POTENTIALLY ARRIVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST NEAR DAWN. ALSO SHOWERS THROUGH EXTREME NE PALM BEACH COUNTY
AND OFFSHORE OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY
PRECIP WITH THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE REST OF FLORIDA FOR FRIDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION ISN`T STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE ABUNDANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE, OBVIOUS FROM THE 12Z RAOB WHICH SHOWED PWAT JUST
OVER 1". OVERALL PATTERN MAY NOT EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MIAMI-DADE, AS TYPICALLY MODELS ARE TOO WET
WITH VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

A SECOND FRONT WHICH FEATURES THE COLD AIR WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY, BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THE FRONT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AIRMASS ARRIVING, WHICH WILL MOSTLY BE FELT SUNDAY MORNING,
WHEN SOME RECORD LOWS COULD BE THREATENED. ANOMALIES FROM THE GEFS
SHOW H7 AND H5 HEIGHTS ABOUT 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL,
NAEFS SURFACE TEMPS FOR SHOW ABOUT 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. AN IMPRESSIVE BLAST OF COLDER AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.



MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND. GULF STREAM WAVES CAN BE 7
FEET OR HIGH LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  60  74  48 /  20   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  62  78  53 /  30   0   0   0
MIAMI            84  63  78  53 /  30   0   0   0
NAPLES           81  65  75  49 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 310003
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
803 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AND LIKELY OVER NIGHT. A WEAK FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN FLORIDA AND WILL CONTINUE SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. AROUND THE 12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME WEAK
WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS FORECAST TO PREVAIL. AFTER 18Z ON
FRIDAY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS FORECAST WITH
VCSH ASSIGNED ALL TERMINALS.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST,
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS, FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE ENTERS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT, SHOWERS SHOULD PASS
INTO OUR GULF WATERS AND ALSO POTENTIALLY ARRIVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST NEAR DAWN. ALSO SHOWERS THROUGH EXTREME NE PALM BEACH COUNTY
AND OFFSHORE OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY
PRECIP WITH THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE REST OF FLORIDA FOR FRIDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION ISN`T STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE ABUNDANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE, OBVIOUS FROM THE 12Z RAOB WHICH SHOWED PWAT JUST
OVER 1". OVERALL PATTERN MAY NOT EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MIAMI-DADE, AS TYPICALLY MODELS ARE TOO WET
WITH VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

A SECOND FRONT WHICH FEATURES THE COLD AIR WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY, BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THE FRONT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AIRMASS ARRIVING, WHICH WILL MOSTLY BE FELT SUNDAY MORNING,
WHEN SOME RECORD LOWS COULD BE THREATENED. ANOMALIES FROM THE GEFS
SHOW H7 AND H5 HEIGHTS ABOUT 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL,
NAEFS SURFACE TEMPS FOR SHOW ABOUT 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. AN IMPRESSIVE BLAST OF COLDER AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AVIATION...

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES...AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EAST
COASTAL AREAS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN
IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DRY WEATHER UNTIL 14Z ON FRIDAY BEFORE VCSH WILL BE INTRODUCED.

KAPF TAF SITE WILL SEE WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OF TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN GO
TO WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE CEILING AND
VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER UNTIL 14Z FRIDAY BEFORE VCSH WILL BE
INTRODUCED.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND. GULF STREAM WAVES CAN BE 7
FEET OR HIGH LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  82  60  76 /  10  20   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  84  63  80 /  10  30   0   0
MIAMI            70  85  63  80 /  10  30   0   0
NAPLES           67  81  63  75 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...57/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 302002
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST,
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS, FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE ENTERS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT, SHOWERS SHOULD PASS
INTO OUR GULF WATERS AND ALSO POTENTIALLY ARRIVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST NEAR DAWN. ALSO SHOWERS THROUGH EXTREME NE PALM BEACH COUNTY
AND OFFSHORE OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY
PRECIP WITH THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE REST OF FLORIDA FOR FRIDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION ISN`T STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE ABUNDANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE, OBVIOUS FROM THE 12Z RAOB WHICH SHOWED PWAT JUST
OVER 1". OVERALL PATTERN MAY NOT EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MIAMI-DADE, AS TYPICALLY MODELS ARE TOO WET
WITH VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

A SECOND FRONT WHICH FEATURES THE COLD AIR WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY, BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THE FRONT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AIRMASS ARRIVING, WHICH WILL MOSTLY BE FELT SUNDAY MORNING,
WHEN SOME RECORD LOWS COULD BE THREATENED. ANOMALIES FROM THE GEFS
SHOW H7 AND H5 HEIGHTS ABOUT 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL,
NAEFS SURFACE TEMPS FOR SHOW ABOUT 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. AN IMPRESSIVE BLAST OF COLDER AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES...AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EAST
COASTAL AREAS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN
IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DRY WEATHER UNTIL 14Z ON FRIDAY BEFORE VCSH WILL BE INTRODUCED.

KAPF TAF SITE WILL SEE WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OF TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN GO
TO WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE CEILING AND
VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER UNTIL 14Z FRIDAY BEFORE VCSH WILL BE
INTRODUCED.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND. GULF STREAM WAVES CAN BE 7
FEET OR HIGH LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  82  60  76 /  10  20   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  84  63  80 /  10  30   0   0
MIAMI            70  85  63  80 /  10  30   0   0
NAPLES           67  81  63  75 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 302002
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...

COLD FRONT NOW ENTERING CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH CLOUDS STREAMING EAST,
ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS, FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS THE UPPER
DISTURBANCE ENTERS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT, SHOWERS SHOULD PASS
INTO OUR GULF WATERS AND ALSO POTENTIALLY ARRIVE ALONG THE GULF
COAST NEAR DAWN. ALSO SHOWERS THROUGH EXTREME NE PALM BEACH COUNTY
AND OFFSHORE OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. MODELS CONTINUE TO DOWNPLAY
PRECIP WITH THIS BOUNDARY FOR THE REST OF FLORIDA FOR FRIDAY.
MOISTURE ADVECTION ISN`T STRONG ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE ABUNDANT
DRY AIR IN PLACE, OBVIOUS FROM THE 12Z RAOB WHICH SHOWED PWAT JUST
OVER 1". OVERALL PATTERN MAY NOT EVEN BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO MIAMI-DADE, AS TYPICALLY MODELS ARE TOO WET
WITH VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

A SECOND FRONT WHICH FEATURES THE COLD AIR WILL PASS THROUGH ON
SATURDAY, BIGGEST IMPACT FROM THE FRONT WILL BE THE WELL BELOW
NORMAL AIRMASS ARRIVING, WHICH WILL MOSTLY BE FELT SUNDAY MORNING,
WHEN SOME RECORD LOWS COULD BE THREATENED. ANOMALIES FROM THE GEFS
SHOW H7 AND H5 HEIGHTS ABOUT 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL,
NAEFS SURFACE TEMPS FOR SHOW ABOUT 5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. AN IMPRESSIVE BLAST OF COLDER AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES...AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EAST
COASTAL AREAS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN
IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DRY WEATHER UNTIL 14Z ON FRIDAY BEFORE VCSH WILL BE INTRODUCED.

KAPF TAF SITE WILL SEE WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OF TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN GO
TO WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE CEILING AND
VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER UNTIL 14Z FRIDAY BEFORE VCSH WILL BE
INTRODUCED.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, AND A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED THIS WEEKEND. GULF STREAM WAVES CAN BE 7
FEET OR HIGH LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  82  60  76 /  10  20   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  84  63  80 /  10  30   0   0
MIAMI            70  85  63  80 /  10  30   0   0
NAPLES           67  81  63  75 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301731 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
131 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES...AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EAST
COASTAL AREAS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT OVER THE EAST COAST TAF STIES BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN
IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DRY WEATHER UNTIL 14Z ON FRIDAY BEFORE VCSH WILL BE INTRODUCED.

KAPF TAF SITE WILL SEE WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OF TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN GO
TO WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE CEILING AND
VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER UNTIL 14Z FRIDAY BEFORE VCSH WILL BE
INTRODUCED.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, HAS
OOZED INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 50F
THIS MORNING, BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ALSO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. PERHAPS SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS SURVIVE INTO OUR FAR OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THIS PM. A LINE
OF SHOWERS HAS ALSO LINED UP OVER THE GULF STREAM IN OUR ATLANTIC
ZONES MOVING DUE SOUTH. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN VFR ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY.

AVIATION...54/BNB
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND RETREATS SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS PASS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LATTER WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SINCE THE WEEKEND
IS FINALLY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. WITH RIDGE AXIS
NEARLY OVERHEAD...EASTERLY FLOW HAS SUBSIDED OVERNIGHT...AND
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM/SLIGHTLY DRAINAGE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH MAXIMA REACHING
NEAR NORMAL /MID-UPR 80S/. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
REMAINS MODEST AND FORCING LACKING...SO AT MOST SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON NORTHWEST WINDS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED H5 LOPRES
CENTERED OVER MID-ATLANTIC WILL FORCE A SECOND COLD FRONT INTO
FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GA/SC COAST WILL CAUSE
THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOPRES OFF MID-ATLANTIC AND
POWERFUL RIDGE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS/MS VLY WILL
MAKE NEARLY IDEAL CAA SCENARIO FOR THE PENINSULA...AS CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS PLUNGES SWD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
70S SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED COLD SURGE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY THE COLDEST SOUTH
FLORIDA HAS EXPERIENCED SINCE AT LEAST MARCH. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
TO TREND COLDER FOR A NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE RUNS...AND NOW
PROJECTED MINIMA SUNDAY MORNING /UPPER 40S WEST PALM BEACH AND
NAPLES METROS AND LOW 50S FT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI METROS/ MAY
THREATEN DAILY RECORDS.

AMPLE SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S SUNDAY...AND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST...INITIATING A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON EASTERLY WINDS...AND A FEW EAST COASTAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BACK TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AGAIN AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ENE FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A FEW SHRAS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY PUSH INTO KFMY AND KRSW NEAR 06Z TOMORROW. KEPT VCSH MENTION
OUT OF KAPF TAF FOR NOW.

MARINE...
AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  83  60  76 /  10  20   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  85  63  80 /   0  30   0   0
MIAMI            70  84  63  80 /   0  30   0   0
NAPLES           67  81  63  75 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301731 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
131 PM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES...AS THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN NEAR THE EAST
COASTAL AREAS. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TONIGHT OVER THE EAST COAST TAF STIES BEFORE BECOMING WESTERLY AT
5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN
IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DRY WEATHER UNTIL 14Z ON FRIDAY BEFORE VCSH WILL BE INTRODUCED.

KAPF TAF SITE WILL SEE WESTERLY WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH 00Z
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OF TONIGHT. THE WINDS WILL THEN GO
TO WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE CEILING AND
VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER UNTIL 14Z FRIDAY BEFORE VCSH WILL BE
INTRODUCED.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, HAS
OOZED INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 50F
THIS MORNING, BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ALSO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. PERHAPS SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS SURVIVE INTO OUR FAR OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THIS PM. A LINE
OF SHOWERS HAS ALSO LINED UP OVER THE GULF STREAM IN OUR ATLANTIC
ZONES MOVING DUE SOUTH. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN VFR ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY.

AVIATION...54/BNB
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND RETREATS SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS PASS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LATTER WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SINCE THE WEEKEND
IS FINALLY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. WITH RIDGE AXIS
NEARLY OVERHEAD...EASTERLY FLOW HAS SUBSIDED OVERNIGHT...AND
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM/SLIGHTLY DRAINAGE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH MAXIMA REACHING
NEAR NORMAL /MID-UPR 80S/. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
REMAINS MODEST AND FORCING LACKING...SO AT MOST SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON NORTHWEST WINDS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED H5 LOPRES
CENTERED OVER MID-ATLANTIC WILL FORCE A SECOND COLD FRONT INTO
FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GA/SC COAST WILL CAUSE
THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOPRES OFF MID-ATLANTIC AND
POWERFUL RIDGE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS/MS VLY WILL
MAKE NEARLY IDEAL CAA SCENARIO FOR THE PENINSULA...AS CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS PLUNGES SWD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
70S SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED COLD SURGE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY THE COLDEST SOUTH
FLORIDA HAS EXPERIENCED SINCE AT LEAST MARCH. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
TO TREND COLDER FOR A NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE RUNS...AND NOW
PROJECTED MINIMA SUNDAY MORNING /UPPER 40S WEST PALM BEACH AND
NAPLES METROS AND LOW 50S FT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI METROS/ MAY
THREATEN DAILY RECORDS.

AMPLE SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S SUNDAY...AND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST...INITIATING A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON EASTERLY WINDS...AND A FEW EAST COASTAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BACK TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AGAIN AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ENE FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A FEW SHRAS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY PUSH INTO KFMY AND KRSW NEAR 06Z TOMORROW. KEPT VCSH MENTION
OUT OF KAPF TAF FOR NOW.

MARINE...
AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  83  60  76 /  10  20   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  85  63  80 /   0  30   0   0
MIAMI            70  84  63  80 /   0  30   0   0
NAPLES           67  81  63  75 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301425
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...

IMPRESSIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, HAS
OOZED INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 50F
THIS MORNING, BEHIND A COLD FRONT. ALSO SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED
SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. PERHAPS SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS SURVIVE INTO OUR FAR OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THIS PM. A LINE
OF SHOWERS HAS ALSO LINED UP OVER THE GULF STREAM IN OUR ATLANTIC
ZONES MOVING DUE SOUTH. OTHERWISE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM AFTERNOON
IS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 730 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN VFR ALONG WITH
DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND RETREATS SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS PASS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LATTER WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SINCE THE WEEKEND
IS FINALLY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. WITH RIDGE AXIS
NEARLY OVERHEAD...EASTERLY FLOW HAS SUBSIDED OVERNIGHT...AND
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM/SLIGHTLY DRAINAGE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH MAXIMA REACHING
NEAR NORMAL /MID-UPR 80S/. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
REMAINS MODEST AND FORCING LACKING...SO AT MOST SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON NORTHWEST WINDS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED H5 LOPRES
CENTERED OVER MID-ATLANTIC WILL FORCE A SECOND COLD FRONT INTO
FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GA/SC COAST WILL CAUSE
THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOPRES OFF MID-ATLANTIC AND
POWERFUL RIDGE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS/MS VLY WILL
MAKE NEARLY IDEAL CAA SCENARIO FOR THE PENINSULA...AS CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS PLUNGES SWD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
70S SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED COLD SURGE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY THE COLDEST SOUTH
FLORIDA HAS EXPERIENCED SINCE AT LEAST MARCH. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
TO TREND COLDER FOR A NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE RUNS...AND NOW
PROJECTED MINIMA SUNDAY MORNING /UPPER 40S WEST PALM BEACH AND
NAPLES METROS AND LOW 50S FT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI METROS/ MAY
THREATEN DAILY RECORDS.

AMPLE SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S SUNDAY...AND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST...INITIATING A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES. MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE ON EASTERLY WINDS...AND A FEW EAST COASTAL SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BACK TO AVERAGE FOR EARLY NOVEMBER.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AGAIN AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ENE FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A FEW SHRAS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY PUSH INTO KFMY AND KRSW NEAR 06Z TOMORROW. KEPT VCSH MENTION
OUT OF KAPF TAF FOR NOW.

MARINE...
AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  68  83  60 /  10  10  20   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  71  85  63 /  10   0  30   0
MIAMI            85  70  84  63 /  10   0  30   0
NAPLES           84  67  81  63 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301130 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
730 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS FOR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL ALSO BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE GOING WESTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER FOR TODAY.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND RETREATS SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS PASS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LATTER WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SINCE THE WEEKEND
IS FINALLY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. WITH RIDGE AXIS
NEARLY OVERHEAD...EASTERLY FLOW HAS SUBSIDED OVERNIGHT...AND
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM/SLIGHTLY DRAINAGE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH MAXIMA REACHING
NEAR NORMAL /MID-UPR 80S/. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
REMAINS MODEST AND FORCING LACKING...SO AT MOST SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON NORTHWEST WINDS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED H5 LOPRES
CENTERED OVER MID-ATLANTIC WILL FORCE A SECOND COLD FRONT INTO
FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GA/SC COAST WILL CAUSE
THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOPRES OFF MID-ATLANTIC AND
POWERFUL RIDGE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS/MS VLY WILL
MAKE NEARLY IDEAL CAA SCENARIO FOR THE PENINSULA...AS CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS PLUNGES SWD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
70S SATURDAY...BUT MAY BEGIN FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED COLD SURGE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY THE COLDEST SOUTH
FLORIDA HAS EXPERIENCED SINCE AT LEAST MARCH. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
TO TREND COLDER FOR A NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE RUNS...AND NOW
PROJECTED MINIMA SUNDAY MORNING /UPPER 40S WEST PALM BEACH AND
NAPLES METROS AND LOW 50S FT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI METROS/ MAY
THREATEN DAILY RECORDS.

AMPLE SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S SUNDAY...AND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST...INITIATING A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES. EXTREMELY DRY ATMOSPHERE THIS
WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY MOISTURE ON THE EASTERLY WINDS...AND A FEW
EAST COASTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BACK TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AGAIN AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ENE FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A FEW SHRAS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY PUSH INTO KFMY AND KRSW NEAR 06Z TOMORROW. KEPT VCSH MENTION
OUT OF KAPF TAF FOR NOW.

MARINE...
AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONT CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  68  83  60 /   0  10  20   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  71  85  63 /   0   0  30   0
MIAMI            85  70  84  63 /   0   0  30   0
NAPLES           84  67  81  63 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300802
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND RETREATS SOUTHWARD TODAY...THEN A PAIR
OF COLD FRONTS PASS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE LATTER WILL BRING
MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER SINCE THE WEEKEND
IS FINALLY WEAKENING AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD. WITH RIDGE AXIS
NEARLY OVERHEAD...EASTERLY FLOW HAS SUBSIDED OVERNIGHT...AND
CLEAR SKIES AND CALM/SLIGHTLY DRAINAGE FLOW HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE
RADIATIONAL COOLING THAN PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS. LIGHT NORTH WINDS
TODAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED...WITH MAXIMA REACHING
NEAR NORMAL /MID-UPR 80S/. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT...THEN CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. MOISTURE
REMAINS MODEST AND FORCING LACKING...SO AT MOST SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER EASTERN ZONES FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM IMPACTING THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FRIDAY NIGHT...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
ON NORTHWEST WINDS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED H5 LOPRES
CENTERED OVER MID-ATLANTIC WILL FORCE A SECOND COLD FRONT INTO
FLORIDA FRIDAY NIGHT. CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE GA/SC COAST WILL CAUSE
THE FRONT TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY. COMBINATION OF DEEPENING LOPRES OFF MID-ATLANTIC AND
POWERFUL RIDGE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PLAINS/MS VLY WILL
MAKE NEARLY IDEAL CAA SCENARIO FOR THE PENINSULA...AS CONTINENTAL
POLAR AIRMASS PLUNGES SWD. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
70S SATURDAY...BUT MAY BEGIN FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFOREMENTIONED COLD SURGE WILL LEAD TO TEMPERATURES AROUND 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY THE COLDEST SOUTH
FLORIDA HAS EXPERIENCED SINCE AT LEAST MARCH. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE CONTINUED
TO TREND COLDER FOR A NUMBER OF CONSECUTIVE RUNS...AND NOW
PROJECTED MINIMA SUNDAY MORNING /UPPER 40S WEST PALM BEACH AND
NAPLES METROS AND LOW 50S FT LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI METROS/ MAY
THREATEN DAILY RECORDS.

AMPLE SUN WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S SUNDAY...AND
BY SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN NORTHEAST...INITIATING A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF MODERATING TEMPERATURES. EXTREMELY DRY ATMOSPHERE THIS
WEEKEND WILL GRADUALLY MOISTURE ON THE EASTERLY WINDS...AND A FEW
EAST COASTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE BACK TO AVERAGE FOR
EARLY NOVEMBER.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AGAIN AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ENE FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A FEW SHRAS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY PUSH INTO KFMY AND KRSW NEAR 06Z TOMORROW. KEPT VCSH MENTION
OUT OF KAPF TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.MARINE...
AS A PAIR OF COLD FRONT CROSS THE WATERS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WINDS AND SUBSEQUENTLY SEAS WILL BEGIN TO RISE...AND
HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  68  83  60 /   0  10  20   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  71  85  63 /   0   0  30   0
MIAMI            85  70  84  63 /   0   0  30   0
NAPLES           84  67  81  63 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300544
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
144 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AGAIN AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ENE FLOW. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA
NEAR THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE. A FEW SHRAS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
MAY PUSH INTO KFMY AND KRSW NEAR 06Z TOMORROW. KEPT VCSH MENTION
OUT OF KAPF TAF FOR NOW.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 919 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...
THE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA HAS WEAKENED WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INDICATES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL/METRO AREAS. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. ANOMALOUS DEEP EASTERN TROUGH
AND DEVELOPING CLOSED H5 LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WILL
DRIVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH
EACH RUN, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. BEFORE THE FRONT, ANOTHER PLEASANT
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE DEPTH IS SUFFICIENT ONLY FOR A
SHORT TIME FRAME, WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRT WAVE, TO
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTHERN HALF,
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SLT CHC AND CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH THE BOUNDARY CLEARING SOUTH FLORIDA AND CROSSING
THE KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE BELOW 3 FEET, AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. EAST WINDS OF 10 KTS TODAY BECOME NORTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL POSSIBLY BUILD TO 7 FEET ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY
LATE WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...

FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR HOMESTEAD THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED.
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS SURVIVE INTO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOUNDING IS VERY DRY.
ALTHOUGH DEPARTING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER TRANQUIL
DAY WITH MORE COMFORTABLE LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KTMB WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND UNTIL 13Z THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...KTMB WILL HAVE
VCSH UNTIL 13Z THIS MORNING THEN GOING DRY AFTER 13Z TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
USHER IN SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE OR TWO ROGUE ATLANTIC SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED INLAND NEAR
BROWARD/PALM BEACH BORDERS EARLY THIS MRNG /HANDLED BY SILENT 10
POP IN GRIDS/...OTHERWISE DRY AND QUIET NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. LITTLE WILL CHANGE WEATHER-WISE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED SINCE THIS WEEKEND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF SOUTH FLORIDAS WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH EAST WINDS TODAY TURNING
NORTH BY THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...ALLOWING A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN`T
BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND BY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH LOW TO MID 60S EVEN ALONG
THE COASTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE BY SATURDAY A
CLOSED-H5 LOPRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...WILL AIDE IN ANOTHER
FROPA THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AS A POWERFUL VORT MAX PIVOTS AROUND
THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW...JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA. LAST SEVERAL
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE PROJECTED AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE /CONTINENTAL POLAR IN ORIGIN/ BUILDING QUICKLY TOWARD THE
STATE. THUS...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COLD-AIR ADVECTION AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...MINIMA ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MID-40S OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR...TO NEAR 60F
ALONG THE COAST. NAPLES AND WEST PALM BEACH METROS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH MID AND UPPER 50S OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF MIAMI AND FORT LAUDERDALE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

TYPICAL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BREEZY...AND ASIDE FROM A FEW
ATLANTIC SHOWERS INTRUDING COASTAL LOCATIONS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE DRY.

MARINE...
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE BELOW 3 FEET...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. EAST WINDS OF 10 KTS TODAY BECOME NORTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  82  60  75 /  10  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  84  63  78 /   0  30  20   0
MIAMI            70  85  63  79 /   0  30  20   0
NAPLES           68  81  64  76 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300119
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
919 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM THE CAROLINAS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA HAS WEAKENED WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT AND INDICATES THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO DIP BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COASTAL/METRO AREAS. /85

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SEA BREEZE CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS THURSDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...

FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. ANOMALOUS DEEP EASTERN TROUGH
AND DEVELOPING CLOSED H5 LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WILL
DRIVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH
EACH RUN, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. BEFORE THE FRONT, ANOTHER PLEASANT
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE DEPTH IS SUFFICIENT ONLY FOR A
SHORT TIME FRAME, WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRT WAVE, TO
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTHERN HALF,
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SLT CHC AND CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH THE BOUNDARY CLEARING SOUTH FLORIDA AND CROSSING
THE KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

MARINE...
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE BELOW 3 FEET, AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. EAST WINDS OF 10 KTS TODAY BECOME NORTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL POSSIBLY BUILD TO 7 FEET ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY
LATE WEEKEND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 115 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE GOING
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING AT THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...

FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR HOMESTEAD THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED.
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS SURVIVE INTO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOUNDING IS VERY DRY.
ALTHOUGH DEPARTING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER TRANQUIL
DAY WITH MORE COMFORTABLE LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY, EXCEPT
FOR KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFTER 17Z
DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND.
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KTMB WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND UNTIL 13Z THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...KTMB WILL HAVE
VCSH UNTIL 13Z THIS MORNING THEN GOING DRY AFTER 13Z TODAY.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
USHER IN SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE OR TWO ROGUE ATLANTIC SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED INLAND NEAR
BROWARD/PALM BEACH BORDERS EARLY THIS MRNG /HANDLED BY SILENT 10
POP IN GRIDS/...OTHERWISE DRY AND QUIET NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. LITTLE WILL CHANGE WEATHER-WISE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED SINCE THIS WEEKEND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF SOUTH FLORIDAS WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH EAST WINDS TODAY TURNING
NORTH BY THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...ALLOWING A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN`T
BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND BY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH LOW TO MID 60S EVEN ALONG
THE COASTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE BY SATURDAY A
CLOSED-H5 LOPRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...WILL AIDE IN ANOTHER
FROPA THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AS A POWERFUL VORT MAX PIVOTS AROUND
THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW...JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA. LAST SEVERAL
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE PROJECTED AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE /CONTINENTAL POLAR IN ORIGIN/ BUILDING QUICKLY TOWARD THE
STATE. THUS...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COLD-AIR ADVECTION AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...MINIMA ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MID-40S OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR...TO NEAR 60F
ALONG THE COAST. NAPLES AND WEST PALM BEACH METROS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH MID AND UPPER 50S OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF MIAMI AND FORT LAUDERDALE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

TYPICAL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BREEZY...AND ASIDE FROM A FEW
ATLANTIC SHOWERS INTRUDING COASTAL LOCATIONS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE DRY.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERSIST AGAIN AT AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST SITES WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. ISOLATED VERY LIGHT
SHRAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT A
TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE AND WILL
NOT INTRODUCE VCSH MENTION ATTM.

MARINE...
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE BELOW 3 FEET...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. EAST WINDS OF 10 KTS TODAY BECOME NORTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  85  67  82 /  10   0  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  86  71  84 /  10  10   0  30
MIAMI            70  86  70  85 /  10  10   0  30
NAPLES           69  85  68  81 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291942
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
342 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...

FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED. ANOMALOUS DEEP EASTERN TROUGH
AND DEVELOPING CLOSED H5 LOW MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WILL
DRIVE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS INTO THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH FRIDAY. GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH
EACH RUN, WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND,
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY MORNING. BEFORE THE FRONT, ANOTHER PLEASANT
THURSDAY IS EXPECTED. MOISTURE DEPTH IS SUFFICIENT ONLY FOR A
SHORT TIME FRAME, WITH THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRT WAVE, TO
PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTHERN HALF,
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SLT CHC AND CHANCE POPS REMAIN ACROSS
THE REGION, WITH THE BOUNDARY CLEARING SOUTH FLORIDA AND CROSSING
THE KEYS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE BELOW 3 FEET, AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. EAST WINDS OF 10 KTS TODAY BECOME NORTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. A COLD FRONT ARRIVES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL POSSIBLY BUILD TO 7 FEET ALONG THE GULF STREAM BY
LATE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 115 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE GOING
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING AT THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...

FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR HOMESTEAD THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED.
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS SURVIVE INTO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOUNDING IS VERY DRY.
ALTHOUGH DEPARTING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER TRANQUIL
DAY WITH MORE COMFORTABLE LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY, EXCEPT
FOR KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFTER 17Z
DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND.
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KTMB WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND UNTIL 13Z THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...KTMB WILL HAVE
VCSH UNTIL 13Z THIS MORNING THEN GOING DRY AFTER 13Z TODAY.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
USHER IN SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE OR TWO ROGUE ATLANTIC SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED INLAND NEAR
BROWARD/PALM BEACH BORDERS EARLY THIS MRNG /HANDLED BY SILENT 10
POP IN GRIDS/...OTHERWISE DRY AND QUIET NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. LITTLE WILL CHANGE WEATHER-WISE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED SINCE THIS WEEKEND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF SOUTH FLORIDAS WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH EAST WINDS TODAY TURNING
NORTH BY THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...ALLOWING A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN`T
BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND BY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH LOW TO MID 60S EVEN ALONG
THE COASTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE BY SATURDAY A
CLOSED-H5 LOPRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...WILL AIDE IN ANOTHER
FROPA THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AS A POWERFUL VORT MAX PIVOTS AROUND
THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW...JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA. LAST SEVERAL
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE PROJECTED AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE /CONTINENTAL POLAR IN ORIGIN/ BUILDING QUICKLY TOWARD THE
STATE. THUS...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COLD-AIR ADVECTION AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...MINIMA ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MID-40S OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR...TO NEAR 60F
ALONG THE COAST. NAPLES AND WEST PALM BEACH METROS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH MID AND UPPER 50S OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF MIAMI AND FORT LAUDERDALE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

TYPICAL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BREEZY...AND ASIDE FROM A FEW
ATLANTIC SHOWERS INTRUDING COASTAL LOCATIONS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE DRY.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERSIST AGAIN AT AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST SITES WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. ISOLATED VERY LIGHT
SHRAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT A
TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE AND WILL
NOT INTRODUCE VCSH MENTION ATTM.

MARINE...
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE BELOW 3 FEET...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. EAST WINDS OF 10 KTS TODAY BECOME NORTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  84  68  84 /   0   0   0  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  85  70  85 /   0   0   0  30
MIAMI            70  85  70  84 /   0   0   0  30
NAPLES           67  84  68  82 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291715 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
115 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER THE TAF SITES TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS.
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT BEFORE GOING
NORTHWEST AROUND 5 KNOTS THURSDAY MORNING AT THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

UPDATE...

FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR HOMESTEAD THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED.
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS SURVIVE INTO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOUNDING IS VERY DRY.
ALTHOUGH DEPARTING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER TRANQUIL
DAY WITH MORE COMFORTABLE LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY, EXCEPT
FOR KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFTER 17Z
DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND.
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KTMB WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND UNTIL 13Z THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...KTMB WILL HAVE
VCSH UNTIL 13Z THIS MORNING THEN GOING DRY AFTER 13Z TODAY.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
USHER IN SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE OR TWO ROGUE ATLANTIC SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED INLAND NEAR
BROWARD/PALM BEACH BORDERS EARLY THIS MRNG /HANDLED BY SILENT 10
POP IN GRIDS/...OTHERWISE DRY AND QUIET NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. LITTLE WILL CHANGE WEATHER-WISE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED SINCE THIS WEEKEND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF SOUTH FLORIDAS WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH EAST WINDS TODAY TURNING
NORTH BY THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...ALLOWING A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN`T
BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND BY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH LOW TO MID 60S EVEN ALONG
THE COASTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE BY SATURDAY A
CLOSED-H5 LOPRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...WILL AIDE IN ANOTHER
FROPA THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AS A POWERFUL VORT MAX PIVOTS AROUND
THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW...JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA. LAST SEVERAL
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE PROJECTED AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE /CONTINENTAL POLAR IN ORIGIN/ BUILDING QUICKLY TOWARD THE
STATE. THUS...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COLD-AIR ADVECTION AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...MINIMA ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MID-40S OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR...TO NEAR 60F
ALONG THE COAST. NAPLES AND WEST PALM BEACH METROS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH MID AND UPPER 50S OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF MIAMI AND FORT LAUDERDALE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

TYPICAL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BREEZY...AND ASIDE FROM A FEW
ATLANTIC SHOWERS INTRUDING COASTAL LOCATIONS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE DRY.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERSIST AGAIN AT AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST SITES WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. ISOLATED VERY LIGHT
SHRAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT A
TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE AND WILL
NOT INTRODUCE VCSH MENTION ATTM.

MARINE...
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE BELOW 3 FEET...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. EAST WINDS OF 10 KTS TODAY BECOME NORTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  84  68  84 /   0   0   0  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  85  70  85 /   0   0   0  30
MIAMI            70  85  70  84 /   0   0   0  30
NAPLES           67  84  68  82 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291410
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1010 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...

FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR HOMESTEAD THIS MORNING HAVE DISSIPATED.
POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS SURVIVE INTO THE INTERIOR SECTIONS LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH SOUNDING IS VERY DRY.
ALTHOUGH DEPARTING, HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER TRANQUIL
DAY WITH MORE COMFORTABLE LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY, EXCEPT
FOR KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFTER 17Z
DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND.
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KTMB WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND UNTIL 13Z THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...KTMB WILL HAVE
VCSH UNTIL 13Z THIS MORNING THEN GOING DRY AFTER 13Z TODAY.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
USHER IN SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE OR TWO ROGUE ATLANTIC SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED INLAND NEAR
BROWARD/PALM BEACH BORDERS EARLY THIS MRNG /HANDLED BY SILENT 10
POP IN GRIDS/...OTHERWISE DRY AND QUIET NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. LITTLE WILL CHANGE WEATHER-WISE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED SINCE THIS WEEKEND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF SOUTH FLORIDAS WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH EAST WINDS TODAY TURNING
NORTH BY THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...ALLOWING A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN`T
BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND BY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH LOW TO MID 60S EVEN ALONG
THE COASTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE BY SATURDAY A
CLOSED-H5 LOPRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...WILL AIDE IN ANOTHER
FROPA THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AS A POWERFUL VORT MAX PIVOTS AROUND
THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW...JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA. LAST SEVERAL
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE PROJECTED AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE /CONTINENTAL POLAR IN ORIGIN/ BUILDING QUICKLY TOWARD THE
STATE. THUS...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COLD-AIR ADVECTION AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...MINIMA ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MID-40S OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR...TO NEAR 60F
ALONG THE COAST. NAPLES AND WEST PALM BEACH METROS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH MID AND UPPER 50S OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF MIAMI AND FORT LAUDERDALE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

TYPICAL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BREEZY...AND ASIDE FROM A FEW
ATLANTIC SHOWERS INTRUDING COASTAL LOCATIONS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE DRY.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERSIST AGAIN AT AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST SITES WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. ISOLATED VERY LIGHT
SHRAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT A
TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE AND WILL
NOT INTRODUCE VCSH MENTION ATTM.

MARINE...
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE BELOW 3 FEET...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. EAST WINDS OF 10 KTS TODAY BECOME NORTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  69  84  68 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  72  85  70 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            87  70  85  70 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           86  67  84  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291133 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES TODAY, EXCEPT
FOR KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY AFTER 17Z
DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND.
THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KTMB WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND UNTIL 13Z THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...KTMB WILL HAVE
VCSH UNTIL 13Z THIS MORNING THEN GOING DRY AFTER 13Z TODAY.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
USHER IN SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE OR TWO ROGUE ATLANTIC SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED INLAND NEAR
BROWARD/PALM BEACH BORDERS EARLY THIS MRNG /HANDLED BY SILENT 10
POP IN GRIDS/...OTHERWISE DRY AND QUIET NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. LITTLE WILL CHANGE WEATHER-WISE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED SINCE THIS WEEKEND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF SOUTH FLORIDAS WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH EAST WINDS TODAY TURNING
NORTH BY THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...ALLOWING A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANT
BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND BY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH LOW TO MID 60S EVEN ALONG
THE COASTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE BY SATURDAY A
CLOSED-H5 LOPRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...WILL AIDE IN ANOTHER
FROPA THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AS A POWERFUL VORT MAX PIVOTS AROUND
THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW...JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA. LAST SEVERAL
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE PROJECTED AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE /CONTINENTAL POLAR IN ORIGIN/ BUILDING QUICKLY TOWARD THE
STATE. THUS...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COLD-AIR ADVECTION AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...MINIMA ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MID-40S OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR...TO NEAR 60F
ALONG THE COAST. NAPLES AND WEST PALM BEACH METROS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH MID AND UPPER 50S OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF MIAMI AND FORT LAUDERDALE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

TYPICAL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BREEZY...AND ASIDE FROM A FEW
ATLANTIC SHOWERS INTRUDING COASTAL LOCATIONS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE DRY.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERSIST AGAIN AT AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST SITES WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. ISOLATED VERY LIGHT
SHRAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT A
TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE AND WILL
NOT INTRODUCE VCSH MENTION ATTM.

MARINE...
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE BELOW 3 FEET...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. EAST WINDS OF 10 KTS TODAY BECOME NORTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  69  84  68 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  72  85  70 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            86  70  85  70 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           85  67  84  68 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 290810
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
410 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
USHER IN SOME OF THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR THUS FAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ONE OR TWO ROGUE ATLANTIC SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED INLAND NEAR
BROWARD/PALM BEACH BORDERS EARLY THIS MRNG /HANDLED BY SILENT 10
POP IN GRIDS/...OTHERWISE DRY AND QUIET NIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. LITTLE WILL CHANGE WEATHER-WISE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED SINCE THIS WEEKEND
REMAINS IN CONTROL OF SOUTH FLORIDAS WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH EAST WINDS TODAY TURNING
NORTH BY THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...ALLOWING A
POTENT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT INTO FLORIDA ON
THURSDAY...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS
ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANT
BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND BY SATURDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE
50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR...WITH LOW TO MID 60S EVEN ALONG
THE COASTS. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH SHOULD BE BY SATURDAY A
CLOSED-H5 LOPRES OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC...WILL AIDE IN ANOTHER
FROPA THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AS A POWERFUL VORT MAX PIVOTS AROUND
THE SW SIDE OF THE LOW...JUST NORTH OF FLORIDA. LAST SEVERAL
GLOBAL MODEL RUNS HAVE PROJECTED AN INCREASINGLY STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE /CONTINENTAL POLAR IN ORIGIN/ BUILDING QUICKLY TOWARD THE
STATE. THUS...EXPECT SIGNIFICANT COLD-AIR ADVECTION AFTER THE
FRONT PASSES SATURDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING WELL BELOW
NORMAL BY SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME...MINIMA ARE FORECAST TO
RANGE FROM THE MID-40S OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR...TO NEAR 60F
ALONG THE COAST. NAPLES AND WEST PALM BEACH METROS ARE FORECAST TO
DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S...WITH MID AND UPPER 50S OVER INLAND
PORTIONS OF MIAMI AND FORT LAUDERDALE METROPOLITAN AREAS.

TYPICAL FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...THE COOL AIRMASS WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...WITH EASTERLY WINDS AND MODERATING TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE BREEZY...AND ASIDE FROM A FEW
ATLANTIC SHOWERS INTRUDING COASTAL LOCATIONS...CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERSIST AGAIN AT AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST SITES WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. ISOLATED VERY LIGHT
SHRAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT A
TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE AND WILL
NOT INTRODUCE VCSH MENTION ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD BE BELOW 3 FEET...AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES. EAST WINDS OF 10 KTS TODAY BECOME NORTH TOMORROW AND
FRIDAY AT SIMILAR SPEEDS. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY MAY LEAD TO
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  69  84  68 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  72  85  70 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            86  70  85  70 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           85  67  84  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 290549
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
149 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PERSIST AGAIN AT AROUND 10 KNOTS ACROSS THE
EAST COAST SITES WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. ISOLATED VERY LIGHT
SHRAS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW COULD BRIEFLY AFFECT A
TERMINAL THROUGH THE DAY BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE AND WILL
NOT INTRODUCE VCSH MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

UPDATE...
ANOTHER QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT IS EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION. THE EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED A RIDGE AXIS CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AREAS
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. /85

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 221 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014/

DRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR MOST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
EXCEPT FOR SOME WET WEATHER ON FRIDAY...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW THE STEERING FLOW
TO SWING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME...AS THE PWAT VALUES WILL
REMAIN BELOW ONE INCH WHICH IS WELL BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT VALUE
OF 1.65 INCHES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THE HIGH WILL THEN WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO LATE
THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE SUNSHINE STATE AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO BE ON A SLOW INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AND BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BE BETWEEN 1.2 AND 1.4 INCHES.
THEREFORE...THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY...BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHERN AREAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SO WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA.

LONG TERM...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD FRIDAY EVENING INTO
THE FLORIDA KEYS AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SECONDARY DRY COLD FRONT TO MOVE
DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SATURDAY REINFORCING THE DRY AIR
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE LATEST 12Z MEX AND 00Z ECMWF GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE SHOWING
THAT TEMPS ARE COOLING A LITTLE BIT MORE THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S EXCEPT AROUND 60
EAST COAST METRO AREAS. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES IN LATER FORECAST
RUNS...THEN THE TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE LOWER FOR THIS
WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL SWING FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT BEFORE DECREASING TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS IN BOTH
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS AT 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  69  85  68 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  73  85  72 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            86  70  86  70 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           86  67  85  67 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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