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000
FXUS62 KMFL 011925
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU
FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZES
SEEN ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS. THIS HAS LED TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE
INTERIOR. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BUT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING EITHER COAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AS COASTAL BREEZES WEAKEN. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS.

THIS INTERIOR/WEST CONVECTIVE REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY EDGE TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO CONTINUED WEAK STEERING FLOW AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE INTERIOR.

LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP A RATHER MOIST AND STORMY REGIME
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. TSTORMS WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WED AFTERNOON. ESE WINDS NEAR 10 KT WILL
PREVAIL EAST COAST BECOMING SW AT KAPF. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT WITH SIMILAR WINDS ON WED. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AT 10 MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SEAS OF 1-2 FEET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  92  78  92 /  10  20  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  79  92 /  10  30  20  20
MIAMI            80  92  78  92 /  10  40  20  20
NAPLES           77  91  77  90 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...57/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 011925
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU
FIELD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH PRONOUNCED SEA BREEZES
SEEN ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS. THIS HAS LED TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE
INTERIOR. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS BUT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR
DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING EITHER COAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AS COASTAL BREEZES WEAKEN. THE MAIN THREATS
FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS.

THIS INTERIOR/WEST CONVECTIVE REGIME IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. STRONG RIDGING ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY EDGE TO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO CONTINUED WEAK STEERING FLOW AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FAVORING THE INTERIOR.

LONG RANGE MODELS DO SHOW A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE FOR THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOWER H5 HEIGHTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE SOUTH AND INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP A RATHER MOIST AND STORMY REGIME
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. TSTORMS WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WED AFTERNOON. ESE WINDS NEAR 10 KT WILL
PREVAIL EAST COAST BECOMING SW AT KAPF. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT WITH SIMILAR WINDS ON WED. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AT 10 MPH OR LESS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SEAS OF 1-2 FEET. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VARIABLE OVER
THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  92  78  92 /  10  20  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  79  92 /  10  30  20  20
MIAMI            80  92  78  92 /  10  40  20  20
NAPLES           77  91  77  90 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011811
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
211 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. TSTORMS WILL FOCUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WED AFTERNOON. ESE WINDS NEAR 10 KT WILL
PREVAIL EAST COAST BECOMING SW AT KAPF. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT WITH SIMILAR WINDS ON WED. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 855 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

UPDATE...
PREVAILING WIND FLOW ON THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING IS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST WITH MEAN STEERING WINDS AROUND 8 KT. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED EARLIER TO INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE ALONG THE PALM
BEACH COAST. HOWEVER, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COAST. SO THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE RURAL INTERIOR STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE NEAR 10 KT EAST COAST
AND SW NEAR 10 KT AT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO FORM ON BOTH COASTS, THE LOOK TO
COLLIDE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS EACH DAY. OF COURSE, THIS WILL BE
THE LOCATIONS FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY FRIDAY, THE FLOW DOES TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS A
WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE WEAK LOW WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THIS
WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO FLUCTUATE EACH DAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TODAY, THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
BE IN THE INTERIOR COLLIER COUNT AND MAINLAND MONROE WHERE THE
MODELS SHOW THE SEA BREEZES COMING TOGETHER. THE GFS AND THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER, THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POPS TO
ACCOMMODATE THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH
ALMOST NOTHING DEVELOPING TODAY.

AS FOR DYNAMICS BESIDES THE SEA BREEZE, THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ON
THE WARM SIDE, WITH BETWEEN -6C AND -6.5C PER THE GFS. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES TO BE AROUND
6-6.5 C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO AROUND 4.7 KM, OR 15000
FT. THIS PUTS THE DBZ CORE OF 50DBZ REACHING OVER 39000FT FOR
LARGE HAIL, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TODAY. THE NCAPE IS OVER .2, WHICH
IS INDICATIVE OF SOME LONGER LAST STORM WITH STRONGER VERTICAL VELOCITY.
GIVEN THAT, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY. PWATS DO
LOOK SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY, SITTING AROUND 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST, BUT AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR. REGARDLESS, BEING
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MBE VELOCITY IS LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST, AT
LESS THAN 10KTS. FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THEY ARE BETTER
AT 20 KTS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BACK BUILDING AND/OR
TRAINING OVER THE EAST AREAS. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, THE
DCAPE WAS AROUND 800 J/KG. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WILL
INDICATE A BETTER ESTIMATE, THIS WOULD INDICATE MAXIMUM DOWNBURSTS
OF POSSIBLY 35-45 KTS, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW KTS.

AVIATION...
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST STEERING WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTS. THUS, HAVE
ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AS THUNDER SHOULD BE WELL INLAND FROM
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MARINE...
HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A SURFACE FLOW OF 5-10 KTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 FT, WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES TO 3 FT. THERE IS A
CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE WIND WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, STILL
AROUND THE SAME SPEED. THE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORECASTED SWELLS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  92  79 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  92  79 /  30  10  40  10
NAPLES           91  78  90  78 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011255
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
855 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
PREVAILING WIND FLOW ON THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING IS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST WITH MEAN STEERING WINDS AROUND 8 KT. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED EARLIER TO INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE ALONG THE PALM
BEACH COAST. HOWEVER, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COAST. SO THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE RURAL INTERIOR STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE NEAR 10 KT EAST COAST
AND SW NEAR 10 KT AT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO FORM ON BOTH COASTS, THE LOOK TO
COLLIDE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS EACH DAY. OF COURSE, THIS WILL BE
THE LOCATIONS FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY FRIDAY, THE FLOW DOES TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS A
WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE WEAK LOW WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THIS
WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO FLUCTUATE EACH DAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TODAY, THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
BE IN THE INTERIOR COLLIER COUNT AND MAINLAND MONROE WHERE THE
MODELS SHOW THE SEA BREEZES COMING TOGETHER. THE GFS AND THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER, THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POPS TO
ACCOMMODATE THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH
ALMOST NOTHING DEVELOPING TODAY.

AS FOR DYNAMICS BESIDES THE SEA BREEZE, THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ON
THE WARM SIDE, WITH BETWEEN -6C AND -6.5C PER THE GFS. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES TO BE AROUND
6-6.5 C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO AROUND 4.7 KM, OR 15000
FT. THIS PUTS THE DBZ CORE OF 50DBZ REACHING OVER 39000FT FOR
LARGE HAIL, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TODAY. THE NCAPE IS OVER .2, WHICH
IS INDICATIVE OF SOME LONGER LAST STORM WITH STRONGER VERTICAL VELOCITY.
GIVEN THAT, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY. PWATS DO
LOOK SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY, SITTING AROUND 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST, BUT AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR. REGARDLESS, BEING
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MBE VELOCITY IS LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST, AT
LESS THAN 10KTS. FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THEY ARE BETTER
AT 20 KTS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BACK BUILDING AND/OR
TRAINING OVER THE EAST AREAS. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, THE
DCAPE WAS AROUND 800 J/KG. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WILL
INDICATE A BETTER ESTIMATE, THIS WOULD INDICATE MAXIMUM DOWNBURSTS
OF POSSIBLY 35-45 KTS, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW KTS.

AVIATION...
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST STEERING WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTS. THUS, HAVE
ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AS THUNDER SHOULD BE WELL INLAND FROM
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MARINE...
HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A SURFACE FLOW OF 5-10 KTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 FT, WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES TO 3 FT. THERE IS A
CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE WIND WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, STILL
AROUND THE SAME SPEED. THE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORECASTED SWELLS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  92  79 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  92  79 /  30  10  40  10
NAPLES           91  78  90  78 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 011255
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
855 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
PREVAILING WIND FLOW ON THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING IS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST WITH MEAN STEERING WINDS AROUND 8 KT. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED EARLIER TO INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE ALONG THE PALM
BEACH COAST. HOWEVER, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COAST. SO THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE RURAL INTERIOR STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE NEAR 10 KT EAST COAST
AND SW NEAR 10 KT AT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO FORM ON BOTH COASTS, THE LOOK TO
COLLIDE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS EACH DAY. OF COURSE, THIS WILL BE
THE LOCATIONS FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY FRIDAY, THE FLOW DOES TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS A
WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE WEAK LOW WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THIS
WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO FLUCTUATE EACH DAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TODAY, THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
BE IN THE INTERIOR COLLIER COUNT AND MAINLAND MONROE WHERE THE
MODELS SHOW THE SEA BREEZES COMING TOGETHER. THE GFS AND THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER, THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POPS TO
ACCOMMODATE THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH
ALMOST NOTHING DEVELOPING TODAY.

AS FOR DYNAMICS BESIDES THE SEA BREEZE, THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ON
THE WARM SIDE, WITH BETWEEN -6C AND -6.5C PER THE GFS. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES TO BE AROUND
6-6.5 C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO AROUND 4.7 KM, OR 15000
FT. THIS PUTS THE DBZ CORE OF 50DBZ REACHING OVER 39000FT FOR
LARGE HAIL, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TODAY. THE NCAPE IS OVER .2, WHICH
IS INDICATIVE OF SOME LONGER LAST STORM WITH STRONGER VERTICAL VELOCITY.
GIVEN THAT, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY. PWATS DO
LOOK SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY, SITTING AROUND 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST, BUT AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR. REGARDLESS, BEING
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MBE VELOCITY IS LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST, AT
LESS THAN 10KTS. FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THEY ARE BETTER
AT 20 KTS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BACK BUILDING AND/OR
TRAINING OVER THE EAST AREAS. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, THE
DCAPE WAS AROUND 800 J/KG. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WILL
INDICATE A BETTER ESTIMATE, THIS WOULD INDICATE MAXIMUM DOWNBURSTS
OF POSSIBLY 35-45 KTS, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW KTS.

AVIATION...
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST STEERING WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTS. THUS, HAVE
ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AS THUNDER SHOULD BE WELL INLAND FROM
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MARINE...
HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A SURFACE FLOW OF 5-10 KTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 FT, WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES TO 3 FT. THERE IS A
CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE WIND WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, STILL
AROUND THE SAME SPEED. THE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORECASTED SWELLS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  92  79 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  92  79 /  30  10  40  10
NAPLES           91  78  90  78 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011255
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
855 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
PREVAILING WIND FLOW ON THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING IS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST WITH MEAN STEERING WINDS AROUND 8 KT. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED EARLIER TO INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE ALONG THE PALM
BEACH COAST. HOWEVER, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COAST. SO THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE RURAL INTERIOR STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE NEAR 10 KT EAST COAST
AND SW NEAR 10 KT AT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO FORM ON BOTH COASTS, THE LOOK TO
COLLIDE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS EACH DAY. OF COURSE, THIS WILL BE
THE LOCATIONS FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY FRIDAY, THE FLOW DOES TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS A
WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE WEAK LOW WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THIS
WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO FLUCTUATE EACH DAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TODAY, THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
BE IN THE INTERIOR COLLIER COUNT AND MAINLAND MONROE WHERE THE
MODELS SHOW THE SEA BREEZES COMING TOGETHER. THE GFS AND THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER, THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POPS TO
ACCOMMODATE THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH
ALMOST NOTHING DEVELOPING TODAY.

AS FOR DYNAMICS BESIDES THE SEA BREEZE, THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ON
THE WARM SIDE, WITH BETWEEN -6C AND -6.5C PER THE GFS. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES TO BE AROUND
6-6.5 C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO AROUND 4.7 KM, OR 15000
FT. THIS PUTS THE DBZ CORE OF 50DBZ REACHING OVER 39000FT FOR
LARGE HAIL, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TODAY. THE NCAPE IS OVER .2, WHICH
IS INDICATIVE OF SOME LONGER LAST STORM WITH STRONGER VERTICAL VELOCITY.
GIVEN THAT, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY. PWATS DO
LOOK SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY, SITTING AROUND 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST, BUT AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR. REGARDLESS, BEING
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MBE VELOCITY IS LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST, AT
LESS THAN 10KTS. FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THEY ARE BETTER
AT 20 KTS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BACK BUILDING AND/OR
TRAINING OVER THE EAST AREAS. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, THE
DCAPE WAS AROUND 800 J/KG. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WILL
INDICATE A BETTER ESTIMATE, THIS WOULD INDICATE MAXIMUM DOWNBURSTS
OF POSSIBLY 35-45 KTS, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW KTS.

AVIATION...
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST STEERING WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTS. THUS, HAVE
ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AS THUNDER SHOULD BE WELL INLAND FROM
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MARINE...
HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A SURFACE FLOW OF 5-10 KTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 FT, WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES TO 3 FT. THERE IS A
CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE WIND WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, STILL
AROUND THE SAME SPEED. THE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORECASTED SWELLS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  92  79 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  92  79 /  30  10  40  10
NAPLES           91  78  90  78 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 011255
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
855 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.UPDATE...
PREVAILING WIND FLOW ON THE MORNING MIAMI SOUNDING IS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST WITH MEAN STEERING WINDS AROUND 8 KT. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED EARLIER TO INCREASE THE SHOWER COVERAGE ALONG THE PALM
BEACH COAST. HOWEVER, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COAST. SO THE HIGHEST
POPS OVER THE RURAL INTERIOR STILL LOOK GOOD AND NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WILL BE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 720 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE NEAR 10 KT EAST COAST
AND SW NEAR 10 KT AT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO FORM ON BOTH COASTS, THE LOOK TO
COLLIDE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS EACH DAY. OF COURSE, THIS WILL BE
THE LOCATIONS FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY FRIDAY, THE FLOW DOES TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS A
WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE WEAK LOW WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THIS
WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO FLUCTUATE EACH DAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TODAY, THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
BE IN THE INTERIOR COLLIER COUNT AND MAINLAND MONROE WHERE THE
MODELS SHOW THE SEA BREEZES COMING TOGETHER. THE GFS AND THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER, THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POPS TO
ACCOMMODATE THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH
ALMOST NOTHING DEVELOPING TODAY.

AS FOR DYNAMICS BESIDES THE SEA BREEZE, THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ON
THE WARM SIDE, WITH BETWEEN -6C AND -6.5C PER THE GFS. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES TO BE AROUND
6-6.5 C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO AROUND 4.7 KM, OR 15000
FT. THIS PUTS THE DBZ CORE OF 50DBZ REACHING OVER 39000FT FOR
LARGE HAIL, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TODAY. THE NCAPE IS OVER .2, WHICH
IS INDICATIVE OF SOME LONGER LAST STORM WITH STRONGER VERTICAL VELOCITY.
GIVEN THAT, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY. PWATS DO
LOOK SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY, SITTING AROUND 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST, BUT AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR. REGARDLESS, BEING
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MBE VELOCITY IS LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST, AT
LESS THAN 10KTS. FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THEY ARE BETTER
AT 20 KTS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BACK BUILDING AND/OR
TRAINING OVER THE EAST AREAS. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, THE
DCAPE WAS AROUND 800 J/KG. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WILL
INDICATE A BETTER ESTIMATE, THIS WOULD INDICATE MAXIMUM DOWNBURSTS
OF POSSIBLY 35-45 KTS, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW KTS.

AVIATION...
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST STEERING WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTS. THUS, HAVE
ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AS THUNDER SHOULD BE WELL INLAND FROM
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MARINE...
HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A SURFACE FLOW OF 5-10 KTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 FT, WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES TO 3 FT. THERE IS A
CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE WIND WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, STILL
AROUND THE SAME SPEED. THE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORECASTED SWELLS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  92  79 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  92  79 /  30  10  40  10
NAPLES           91  78  90  78 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011120
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
720 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE NEAR 10 KT EAST COAST
AND SW NEAR 10 KT AT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO FORM ON BOTH COASTS, THE LOOK TO
COLLIDE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS EACH DAY. OF COURSE, THIS WILL BE
THE LOCATIONS FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY FRIDAY, THE FLOW DOES TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS A
WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE WEAK LOW WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THIS
WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO FLUCTUATE EACH DAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TODAY, THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
BE IN THE INTERIOR COLLIER COUNT AND MAINLAND MONROE WHERE THE
MODELS SHOW THE SEA BREEZES COMING TOGETHER. THE GFS AND THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER, THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POPS TO
ACCOMMODATE THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH
ALMOST NOTHING DEVELOPING TODAY.

AS FOR DYNAMICS BESIDES THE SEA BREEZE, THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ON
THE WARM SIDE, WITH BETWEEN -6C AND -6.5C PER THE GFS. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES TO BE AROUND
6-6.5 C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO AROUND 4.7 KM, OR 15000
FT. THIS PUTS THE DBZ CORE OF 50DBZ REACHING OVER 39000FT FOR
LARGE HAIL, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TODAY. THE NCAPE IS OVER .2, WHICH
IS INDICATIVE OF SOME LONGER LAST STORM WITH STRONGER VERTICAL VELOCITY.
GIVEN THAT, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY. PWATS DO
LOOK SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY, SITTING AROUND 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST, BUT AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR. REGARDLESS, BEING
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MBE VELOCITY IS LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST, AT
LESS THAN 10KTS. FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THEY ARE BETTER
AT 20 KTS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BACK BUILDING AND/OR
TRAINING OVER THE EAST AREAS. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, THE
DCAPE WAS AROUND 800 J/KG. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WILL
INDICATE A BETTER ESTIMATE, THIS WOULD INDICATE MAXIMUM DOWNBURSTS
OF POSSIBLY 35-45 KTS, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW KTS.

AVIATION...
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST STEERING WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTS. THUS, HAVE
ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AS THUNDER SHOULD BE WELL INLAND FROM
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MARINE...
HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A SURFACE FLOW OF 5-10 KTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 FT, WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES TO 3 FT. THERE IS A
CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE WIND WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, STILL
AROUND THE SAME SPEED. THE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORECASTED SWELLS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  92  79 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  92  79 /  30  10  40  10
NAPLES           91  78  90  78 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 011120
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
720 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE NEAR 10 KT EAST COAST
AND SW NEAR 10 KT AT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO FORM ON BOTH COASTS, THE LOOK TO
COLLIDE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS EACH DAY. OF COURSE, THIS WILL BE
THE LOCATIONS FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY FRIDAY, THE FLOW DOES TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS A
WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE WEAK LOW WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THIS
WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO FLUCTUATE EACH DAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TODAY, THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
BE IN THE INTERIOR COLLIER COUNT AND MAINLAND MONROE WHERE THE
MODELS SHOW THE SEA BREEZES COMING TOGETHER. THE GFS AND THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER, THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POPS TO
ACCOMMODATE THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH
ALMOST NOTHING DEVELOPING TODAY.

AS FOR DYNAMICS BESIDES THE SEA BREEZE, THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ON
THE WARM SIDE, WITH BETWEEN -6C AND -6.5C PER THE GFS. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES TO BE AROUND
6-6.5 C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO AROUND 4.7 KM, OR 15000
FT. THIS PUTS THE DBZ CORE OF 50DBZ REACHING OVER 39000FT FOR
LARGE HAIL, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TODAY. THE NCAPE IS OVER .2, WHICH
IS INDICATIVE OF SOME LONGER LAST STORM WITH STRONGER VERTICAL VELOCITY.
GIVEN THAT, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY. PWATS DO
LOOK SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY, SITTING AROUND 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST, BUT AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR. REGARDLESS, BEING
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MBE VELOCITY IS LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST, AT
LESS THAN 10KTS. FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THEY ARE BETTER
AT 20 KTS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BACK BUILDING AND/OR
TRAINING OVER THE EAST AREAS. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, THE
DCAPE WAS AROUND 800 J/KG. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WILL
INDICATE A BETTER ESTIMATE, THIS WOULD INDICATE MAXIMUM DOWNBURSTS
OF POSSIBLY 35-45 KTS, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW KTS.

AVIATION...
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST STEERING WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTS. THUS, HAVE
ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AS THUNDER SHOULD BE WELL INLAND FROM
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MARINE...
HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A SURFACE FLOW OF 5-10 KTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 FT, WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES TO 3 FT. THERE IS A
CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE WIND WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, STILL
AROUND THE SAME SPEED. THE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORECASTED SWELLS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  92  79 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  92  79 /  30  10  40  10
NAPLES           91  78  90  78 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011120
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
720 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE NEAR 10 KT EAST COAST
AND SW NEAR 10 KT AT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO FORM ON BOTH COASTS, THE LOOK TO
COLLIDE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS EACH DAY. OF COURSE, THIS WILL BE
THE LOCATIONS FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY FRIDAY, THE FLOW DOES TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS A
WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE WEAK LOW WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THIS
WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO FLUCTUATE EACH DAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TODAY, THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
BE IN THE INTERIOR COLLIER COUNT AND MAINLAND MONROE WHERE THE
MODELS SHOW THE SEA BREEZES COMING TOGETHER. THE GFS AND THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER, THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POPS TO
ACCOMMODATE THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH
ALMOST NOTHING DEVELOPING TODAY.

AS FOR DYNAMICS BESIDES THE SEA BREEZE, THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ON
THE WARM SIDE, WITH BETWEEN -6C AND -6.5C PER THE GFS. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES TO BE AROUND
6-6.5 C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO AROUND 4.7 KM, OR 15000
FT. THIS PUTS THE DBZ CORE OF 50DBZ REACHING OVER 39000FT FOR
LARGE HAIL, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TODAY. THE NCAPE IS OVER .2, WHICH
IS INDICATIVE OF SOME LONGER LAST STORM WITH STRONGER VERTICAL VELOCITY.
GIVEN THAT, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY. PWATS DO
LOOK SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY, SITTING AROUND 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST, BUT AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR. REGARDLESS, BEING
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MBE VELOCITY IS LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST, AT
LESS THAN 10KTS. FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THEY ARE BETTER
AT 20 KTS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BACK BUILDING AND/OR
TRAINING OVER THE EAST AREAS. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, THE
DCAPE WAS AROUND 800 J/KG. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WILL
INDICATE A BETTER ESTIMATE, THIS WOULD INDICATE MAXIMUM DOWNBURSTS
OF POSSIBLY 35-45 KTS, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW KTS.

AVIATION...
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST STEERING WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTS. THUS, HAVE
ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AS THUNDER SHOULD BE WELL INLAND FROM
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MARINE...
HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A SURFACE FLOW OF 5-10 KTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 FT, WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES TO 3 FT. THERE IS A
CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE WIND WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, STILL
AROUND THE SAME SPEED. THE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORECASTED SWELLS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  92  79 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  92  79 /  30  10  40  10
NAPLES           91  78  90  78 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 011120
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
720 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON WILL FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE NEAR 10 KT EAST COAST
AND SW NEAR 10 KT AT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO FORM ON BOTH COASTS, THE LOOK TO
COLLIDE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS EACH DAY. OF COURSE, THIS WILL BE
THE LOCATIONS FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY FRIDAY, THE FLOW DOES TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS A
WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE WEAK LOW WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THIS
WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO FLUCTUATE EACH DAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TODAY, THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
BE IN THE INTERIOR COLLIER COUNT AND MAINLAND MONROE WHERE THE
MODELS SHOW THE SEA BREEZES COMING TOGETHER. THE GFS AND THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER, THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POPS TO
ACCOMMODATE THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH
ALMOST NOTHING DEVELOPING TODAY.

AS FOR DYNAMICS BESIDES THE SEA BREEZE, THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ON
THE WARM SIDE, WITH BETWEEN -6C AND -6.5C PER THE GFS. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES TO BE AROUND
6-6.5 C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO AROUND 4.7 KM, OR 15000
FT. THIS PUTS THE DBZ CORE OF 50DBZ REACHING OVER 39000FT FOR
LARGE HAIL, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TODAY. THE NCAPE IS OVER .2, WHICH
IS INDICATIVE OF SOME LONGER LAST STORM WITH STRONGER VERTICAL VELOCITY.
GIVEN THAT, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY. PWATS DO
LOOK SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY, SITTING AROUND 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST, BUT AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR. REGARDLESS, BEING
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MBE VELOCITY IS LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST, AT
LESS THAN 10KTS. FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THEY ARE BETTER
AT 20 KTS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BACK BUILDING AND/OR
TRAINING OVER THE EAST AREAS. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, THE
DCAPE WAS AROUND 800 J/KG. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WILL
INDICATE A BETTER ESTIMATE, THIS WOULD INDICATE MAXIMUM DOWNBURSTS
OF POSSIBLY 35-45 KTS, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW KTS.

AVIATION...
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST STEERING WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTS. THUS, HAVE
ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AS THUNDER SHOULD BE WELL INLAND FROM
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

MARINE...
HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A SURFACE FLOW OF 5-10 KTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 FT, WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES TO 3 FT. THERE IS A
CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE WIND WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, STILL
AROUND THE SAME SPEED. THE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORECASTED SWELLS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  92  79 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  92  79 /  30  10  40  10
NAPLES           91  78  90  78 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 010810
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
410 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO FORM ON BOTH COASTS, THE LOOK TO
COLLIDE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS EACH DAY. OF COURSE, THIS WILL BE
THE LOCATIONS FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY FRIDAY, THE FLOW DOES TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS A
WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE WEAK LOW WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THIS
WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO FLUCTUATE EACH DAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TODAY, THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
BE IN THE INTERIOR COLLIER COUNT AND MAINLAND MONROE WHERE THE
MODELS SHOW THE SEA BREEZES COMING TOGETHER. THE GFS AND THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER, THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POPS TO
ACCOMMODATE THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH
ALMOST NOTHING DEVELOPING TODAY.

AS FOR DYNAMICS BESIDES THE SEA BREEZE, THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ON
THE WARM SIDE, WITH BETWEEN -6C AND -6.5C PER THE GFS. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES TO BE AROUND
6-6.5 C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO AROUND 4.7 KM, OR 15000
FT. THIS PUTS THE DBZ CORE OF 50DBZ REACHING OVER 39000FT FOR
LARGE HAIL, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TODAY. THE NCAPE IS OVER .2, WHICH
IS INDICATIVE OF SOME LONGER LAST STORM WITH STRONGER VERTICAL VELOCITY.
GIVEN THAT, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY. PWATS DO
LOOK SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY, SITTING AROUND 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST, BUT AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR. REGARDLESS, BEING
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MBE VELOCITY IS LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST, AT
LESS THAN 10KTS. FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THEY ARE BETTER
AT 20 KTS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BACK BUILDING AND/OR
TRAINING OVER THE EAST AREAS. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, THE
DCAPE WAS AROUND 800 J/KG. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WILL
INDICATE A BETTER ESTIMATE, THIS WOULD INDICATE MAXIMUM DOWNBURSTS
OF POSSIBLY 35-45 KTS, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW KTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST STEERING WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTS. THUS, HAVE
ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AS THUNDER SHOULD BE WELL INLAND FROM
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A SURFACE FLOW OF 5-10 KTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 FT, WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES TO 3 FT. THERE IS A
CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE WIND WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, STILL
AROUND THE SAME SPEED. THE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORECASTED SWELLS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  92  79 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  92  79 /  30  10  40  10
NAPLES           91  78  90  78 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 010810
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
410 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A GENERALLY UNREMARKABLE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE. THIS WILL KEEP THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO FORM ON BOTH COASTS, THE LOOK TO
COLLIDE IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS EACH DAY. OF COURSE, THIS WILL BE
THE LOCATIONS FOR THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

BY FRIDAY, THE FLOW DOES TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS A
WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTH FLORIDA AND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. THE WEAK LOW WILL
MEANDER AROUND THE REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK THIS
WILL CAUSE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO FLUCTUATE EACH DAY. THIS WILL
HELP TO ENHANCE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
THIS WEEKEND AND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AS FOR TODAY, THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO
BE IN THE INTERIOR COLLIER COUNT AND MAINLAND MONROE WHERE THE
MODELS SHOW THE SEA BREEZES COMING TOGETHER. THE GFS AND THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THIS, WITH SOME DISAGREEMENT
WITH THE COVERAGE. HOWEVER, THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POPS TO
ACCOMMODATE THE VARIOUS MODELS. THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER WITH
ALMOST NOTHING DEVELOPING TODAY.

AS FOR DYNAMICS BESIDES THE SEA BREEZE, THE 500MB TEMPS ARE ON
THE WARM SIDE, WITH BETWEEN -6C AND -6.5C PER THE GFS. THE NAM
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE 700MB-500MB LAPSE RATES TO BE AROUND
6-6.5 C/KM. THE FREEZING LEVEL LOOKS TO AROUND 4.7 KM, OR 15000
FT. THIS PUTS THE DBZ CORE OF 50DBZ REACHING OVER 39000FT FOR
LARGE HAIL, WHICH IS UNLIKELY TODAY. THE NCAPE IS OVER .2, WHICH
IS INDICATIVE OF SOME LONGER LAST STORM WITH STRONGER VERTICAL VELOCITY.
GIVEN THAT, WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL TODAY. PWATS DO
LOOK SOMEWHAT LOWER TODAY, SITTING AROUND 1.75 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST, BUT AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE INTERIOR. REGARDLESS, BEING
SOUTH FLORIDA IN THE SUMMER, HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE MBE VELOCITY IS LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC COAST, AT
LESS THAN 10KTS. FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST THEY ARE BETTER
AT 20 KTS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME BACK BUILDING AND/OR
TRAINING OVER THE EAST AREAS. LOOKING AT LAST NIGHTS SOUNDING, THE
DCAPE WAS AROUND 800 J/KG. WHILE THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING WILL
INDICATE A BETTER ESTIMATE, THIS WOULD INDICATE MAXIMUM DOWNBURSTS
OF POSSIBLY 35-45 KTS, GIVE OR TAKE A FEW KTS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST STEERING WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. SEA BREEZES WILL
DEVELOP ALONG BOTH COASTS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG
THE BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTS. THUS, HAVE
ONLY PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AS THUNDER SHOULD BE WELL INLAND FROM
ANY OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP A SURFACE FLOW OF 5-10 KTS ACROSS
THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WAVE HEIGHTS
GENERALLY AROUND 1 FT, WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES TO 3 FT. THERE IS A
CHANCES OF NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH NIGHT. BY THE
WEEKEND, THE WIND WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST, STILL
AROUND THE SAME SPEED. THE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT FORECASTED SWELLS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  92  79 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  92  79 /  30  10  40  10
NAPLES           91  78  90  78 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 010537
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
137 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.AVIATION...
A LIGHT SOUTHEAST STEERING WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP
ALONG BOTH COASTS AND SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARIES AND PUSH INLAND AWAY FROM THE COASTS. THUS, HAVE ONLY
PLACED VCSH IN THE TAFS AS THUNDER SHOULD BE WELL INLAND FROM ANY
OF THE TERMINALS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA REMAIN DRY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. POPS HAVE BE REMOVED
FROM LAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS SOFLA. EXPECT
LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT...THEN SEA BREEZE BRINGING ONSHORE WINDS AOB
10 KT BY TUE AFTN. SCT SHRA/TSTM PSBL WITH POP AROUND 40 PCT.
INTRODUCED VCSH AT 16Z ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT COASTAL KFLL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD FROM EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ALLOWING FOR AN EASTERLY WIND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH BOTH
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. THEREFORE...THE POPS
WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL WASH OUT LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND EXTEND OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE
WIND TO BE LIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZES WILL BE THE MAIN
PLAYERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EAST TUESDAY
THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL
KEEP BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS.
BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 312339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
739 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA REMAIN DRY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. POPS HAVE BE REMOVED
FROM LAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS SOFLA. EXPECT
LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT...THEN SEA BREEZE BRINGING ONSHORE WINDS AOB
10 KT BY TUE AFTN. SCT SHRA/TSTM PSBL WITH POP AROUND 40 PCT.
INTRODUCED VCSH AT 16Z ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT COASTAL KFLL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD FROM EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ALLOWING FOR AN EASTERLY WIND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH BOTH
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. THEREFORE...THE POPS
WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL WASH OUT LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND EXTEND OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE
WIND TO BE LIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZES WILL BE THE MAIN
PLAYERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EAST TUESDAY
THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL
KEEP BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS.
BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  92  78  92 /  10  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  81  91 /  10  30  20  30
MIAMI            79  92  79  92 /  10  40  20  30
NAPLES           77  92  77  92 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 312339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
739 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA REMAIN DRY. THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM OVER THE ATLANTIC AND
GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. POPS HAVE BE REMOVED
FROM LAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME
AND NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS APPEAR TO HAVE ENDED FOR THE NIGHT ACROSS SOFLA. EXPECT
LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT...THEN SEA BREEZE BRINGING ONSHORE WINDS AOB
10 KT BY TUE AFTN. SCT SHRA/TSTM PSBL WITH POP AROUND 40 PCT.
INTRODUCED VCSH AT 16Z ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT COASTAL KFLL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM...

TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD FROM EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ALLOWING FOR AN EASTERLY WIND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH BOTH
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. THEREFORE...THE POPS
WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL WASH OUT LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND EXTEND OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE
WIND TO BE LIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZES WILL BE THE MAIN
PLAYERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...
WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EAST TUESDAY
THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL
KEEP BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS.
BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  92  78  92 /  10  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  81  91 /  10  30  20  30
MIAMI            79  92  79  92 /  10  40  20  30
NAPLES           77  92  77  92 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 311906
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
306 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

...LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL EAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ALLOWING FOR AN EASTERLY WIND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH BOTH
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. THEREFORE...THE POPS
WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL WASH OUT LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND EXTEND OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE
WIND TO BE LIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZES WILL BE THE MAIN
PLAYERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EAST TUESDAY
THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL
KEEP BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS.
BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  92  78  92 /  10  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  81  91 /  10  30  20  30
MIAMI            79  92  79  92 /  10  40  20  30
NAPLES           77  92  77  92 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 311906
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
306 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

...LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL EAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ALLOWING FOR AN EASTERLY WIND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH BOTH
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. THEREFORE...THE POPS
WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL WASH OUT LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND EXTEND OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE
WIND TO BE LIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZES WILL BE THE MAIN
PLAYERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EAST TUESDAY
THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL
KEEP BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS.
BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  92  78  92 /  10  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  81  91 /  10  30  20  30
MIAMI            79  92  79  92 /  10  40  20  30
NAPLES           77  92  77  92 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 311906
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
306 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

...LATE SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL EAST GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ALLOWING FOR AN EASTERLY WIND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ALONG WITH BOTH
SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING AND PUSHING INLAND. THEREFORE...THE POPS
WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

.LONG TERM...
LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT THE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL WASH OUT LATE THIS WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA
COASTS AND MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL PUSH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS SOUTHWARD INTO THE BAHAMAS AND EXTEND OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR THE
WIND TO BE LIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SEA BREEZES WILL BE THE MAIN
PLAYERS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BACK FROM THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON TO THE EAST TUESDAY
THROUGH END OF THE WEEK WITH SPEEDS OF 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL
KEEP BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS.
BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  92  78  92 /  10  40  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  81  91 /  10  30  20  30
MIAMI            79  92  79  92 /  10  40  20  30
NAPLES           77  92  77  92 /  30  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 311745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...

EAST COAST REMAINS DRY CURRENTLY, AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE, VCTS
COULD BE REMOVED FOR ADDITIONAL TERMINALS. INSTABILITY WAS RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE FROM 12Z SOUNDING. DID REMOVED VCTS FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SITES OF FLL/FXE AND JUST LEFT VCSH. STORMS WILL BE MOVING
NEAR APF AND POSSIBLE HVY RAIN MAY ALLOW BRIEF IFR CONDS. SHWS MAY
CONTINUE THERE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. SLIGHT UPTICK IN INSTABILITY FOR TUESDAY, BUT FLOW BACKS
ALOFT, AND THE DEEPER DUE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD AGAIN PLACE THE
FOCUS ON THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. WILL LEAVE OUT VCTS FOR NOW.
SOME MVFR CIGS AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  92  80  91 /  30  40  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  91  81  91 /  20  40  30  20
MIAMI            81  91  81  92 /  20  40  20  30
NAPLES           77  92  77  91 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 311745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...

EAST COAST REMAINS DRY CURRENTLY, AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE, VCTS
COULD BE REMOVED FOR ADDITIONAL TERMINALS. INSTABILITY WAS RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE FROM 12Z SOUNDING. DID REMOVED VCTS FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SITES OF FLL/FXE AND JUST LEFT VCSH. STORMS WILL BE MOVING
NEAR APF AND POSSIBLE HVY RAIN MAY ALLOW BRIEF IFR CONDS. SHWS MAY
CONTINUE THERE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. SLIGHT UPTICK IN INSTABILITY FOR TUESDAY, BUT FLOW BACKS
ALOFT, AND THE DEEPER DUE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD AGAIN PLACE THE
FOCUS ON THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. WILL LEAVE OUT VCTS FOR NOW.
SOME MVFR CIGS AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  92  80  91 /  30  40  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  91  81  91 /  20  40  30  20
MIAMI            81  91  81  92 /  20  40  20  30
NAPLES           77  92  77  91 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 311745
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...

EAST COAST REMAINS DRY CURRENTLY, AND IF TRENDS CONTINUE, VCTS
COULD BE REMOVED FOR ADDITIONAL TERMINALS. INSTABILITY WAS RATHER
UNIMPRESSIVE FROM 12Z SOUNDING. DID REMOVED VCTS FOR THE IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SITES OF FLL/FXE AND JUST LEFT VCSH. STORMS WILL BE MOVING
NEAR APF AND POSSIBLE HVY RAIN MAY ALLOW BRIEF IFR CONDS. SHWS MAY
CONTINUE THERE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE. SLIGHT UPTICK IN INSTABILITY FOR TUESDAY, BUT FLOW BACKS
ALOFT, AND THE DEEPER DUE EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD AGAIN PLACE THE
FOCUS ON THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. WILL LEAVE OUT VCTS FOR NOW.
SOME MVFR CIGS AGAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  92  80  91 /  30  40  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  91  81  91 /  20  40  30  20
MIAMI            81  91  81  92 /  20  40  20  30
NAPLES           77  92  77  91 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 311352
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
952 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...

INLAND AND WEST COAST STILL FAVORED FOR STORMS TODAY WITH SE FLOW.
SOUNDING PARAMETERS WERE MEAGER, WITH H7-H5 LAPSE RATES BELOW
6C/KM AND WARMER H5 TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY. PWATS EXPECTED TO DROP
FURTHER PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. GULF BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE WEST COAST, WHICH SHOULD TRIGGER ACTIVITY IN THAT PART OF THE
REGION. SOME SHOWERS MAY ALSO MOVE ONSHORE ALONG THE WEST COAST
THIS MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF. POPS WERE
REDUCED SOMEWHAT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST. TREND IN HI RES NEAR TERM MODELS IS EVEN FOR LESS COVERAGE
OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON THAN THE BLENDED POPS SUGGEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015/

AVIATION...

E TO SE FLOW CONTINUES AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
GULF COAST TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS THIS MORNING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT. KEPT VCTS IN THE TAFS BUT ENDING A LITTLE
SOONER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE
WITH ACTIVITY NEAR APF TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS
THE REMNANTS OR ERIKA IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT FALLING BELOW TWO INCHES. THUS, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO VEER FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ALSO REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY
THE INTERIOR. THEREFORE, WITH ALL OF THAT SAID THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA AND PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG BUT MOST DIURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TODAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FEET OR
LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH 2 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  80 /  30  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  81 /  30  20  40  30
MIAMI            92  81  91  81 /  30  20  40  20
NAPLES           91  77  92  77 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 311148
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...

E TO SE FLOW CONTINUES AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
GULF COAST TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS THIS MORNING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT. KEPT VCTS IN THE TAFS BUT ENDING A LITTLE
SOONER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE
WITH ACTIVITY NEAR APF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS
THE REMNANTS OR ERIKA IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT FALLING BELOW TWO INCHES. THUS, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO VEER FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ALSO REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY
THE INTERIOR. THEREFORE, WITH ALL OF THAT SAID THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA AND PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG BUT MOST DIURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TODAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FEET OR
LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH 2 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  80 /  40  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  30
MIAMI            92  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  20
NAPLES           91  77  92  77 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 311148
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...

E TO SE FLOW CONTINUES AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
GULF COAST TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS THIS MORNING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT. KEPT VCTS IN THE TAFS BUT ENDING A LITTLE
SOONER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE
WITH ACTIVITY NEAR APF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS
THE REMNANTS OR ERIKA IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT FALLING BELOW TWO INCHES. THUS, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO VEER FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ALSO REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY
THE INTERIOR. THEREFORE, WITH ALL OF THAT SAID THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA AND PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG BUT MOST DIURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TODAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FEET OR
LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH 2 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  80 /  40  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  30
MIAMI            92  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  20
NAPLES           91  77  92  77 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 311148
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...

E TO SE FLOW CONTINUES AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
GULF COAST TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS THIS MORNING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT. KEPT VCTS IN THE TAFS BUT ENDING A LITTLE
SOONER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE
WITH ACTIVITY NEAR APF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS
THE REMNANTS OR ERIKA IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT FALLING BELOW TWO INCHES. THUS, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO VEER FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ALSO REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY
THE INTERIOR. THEREFORE, WITH ALL OF THAT SAID THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA AND PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG BUT MOST DIURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TODAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FEET OR
LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH 2 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  80 /  40  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  30
MIAMI            92  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  20
NAPLES           91  77  92  77 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 311148
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...

E TO SE FLOW CONTINUES AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STORMS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
GULF COAST TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSS THIS MORNING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
LESS PRESSURE GRADIENT. KEPT VCTS IN THE TAFS BUT ENDING A LITTLE
SOONER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. BRIEF IFR/MVFR CIG/VIS POSSIBLE
WITH ACTIVITY NEAR APF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS
THE REMNANTS OR ERIKA IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT FALLING BELOW TWO INCHES. THUS, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO VEER FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ALSO REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY
THE INTERIOR. THEREFORE, WITH ALL OF THAT SAID THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA AND PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG BUT MOST DIURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TODAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FEET OR
LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH 2 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  80 /  40  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  30
MIAMI            92  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  20
NAPLES           91  77  92  77 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 310743 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS
THE REMNANTS OR ERIKA IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT FALLING BELOW TWO INCHES. THUS, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO VEER FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ALSO REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY
THE INTERIOR. THEREFORE, WITH ALL OF THAT SAID THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA AND PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG BUT MOST DIURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TODAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FEET OR
LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH 2 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  80 /  40  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  30
MIAMI            92  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  20
NAPLES           91  77  92  77 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 310743 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS
THE REMNANTS OR ERIKA IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT FALLING BELOW TWO INCHES. THUS, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO VEER FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ALSO REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY
THE INTERIOR. THEREFORE, WITH ALL OF THAT SAID THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA AND PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG BUT MOST DIURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TODAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FEET OR
LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH 2 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  80 /  40  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  30
MIAMI            92  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  20
NAPLES           91  77  92  77 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 310743 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS
THE REMNANTS OR ERIKA IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT FALLING BELOW TWO INCHES. THUS, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO VEER FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ALSO REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY
THE INTERIOR. THEREFORE, WITH ALL OF THAT SAID THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS THAT EXPERIENCE SOME LOCALIZED
URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA AND PARTS OF THE
INTERIOR.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG BUT MOST DIURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TODAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FEET OR
LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH 2 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  80 /  40  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  30
MIAMI            92  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  20
NAPLES           91  77  92  77 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 310743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS
THE REMNANTS OR ERIKA IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT FALLING BELOW TWO INCHES. THUS, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO VEER FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ALSO REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY
THE INTERIOR. THEREFORE, WITH ALL OF THAT SAID THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE SOME POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO REGION.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG BUT MOST DIURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TODAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FEET OR
LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH 2 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  80 /  40  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  30
MIAMI            92  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  20
NAPLES           91  77  92  77 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 310743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS
THE REMNANTS OR ERIKA IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT FALLING BELOW TWO INCHES. THUS, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO VEER FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ALSO REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY
THE INTERIOR. THEREFORE, WITH ALL OF THAT SAID THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE SOME POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO REGION.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG BUT MOST DIURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TODAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FEET OR
LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH 2 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  80 /  40  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  30
MIAMI            92  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  20
NAPLES           91  77  92  77 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 310743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS
THE REMNANTS OR ERIKA IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT FALLING BELOW TWO INCHES. THUS, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO VEER FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ALSO REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY
THE INTERIOR. THEREFORE, WITH ALL OF THAT SAID THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE SOME POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO REGION.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG BUT MOST DIURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TODAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FEET OR
LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH 2 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  80 /  40  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  30
MIAMI            92  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  20
NAPLES           91  77  92  77 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 310743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC HAS BUILT BACK TO THE WEST
THIS MORNING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE HAS LIFTED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SURFACE TROUGH WHICH IS
THE REMNANTS OR ERIKA IS NOW MOVING INTO NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS WEST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH PWAT FALLING BELOW TWO INCHES. THUS, SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
TRANSITION BACK TO THE TYPICAL LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON DIURNAL CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING INTO
WEDNESDAY. THE STEERING FLOW WILL ALSO VEER FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
SOUTHEAST TODAY SO THE HIGHEST POPS WILL ALSO REVERT BACK TO MOSTLY
THE INTERIOR. THEREFORE, WITH ALL OF THAT SAID THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
BE CANCELLED THIS MORNING FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD
STILL BE SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS EXPERIENCE SOME POSSIBLE LOCALIZED
URBAN TYPE STREET FLOODING WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WHICH WOULD MAINLY AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS
ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO REGION.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-SUNDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH EASTERLY STEERING FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE GRADIENT WILL NOT BE TERRIBLY STRONG BUT MOST DIURNAL
ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15
KNOTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET TODAY IN THE ATLANTIC AND 2 FEET OR
LESS OVER THE GULF WATERS WITH 2 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  80 /  40  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  30
MIAMI            92  81  91  81 /  40  20  40  20
NAPLES           91  77  92  77 /  50  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 310646
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
A WEAK LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TOGETHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, KEPT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
THE TROUGH THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
IS LOCATED OVER FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX TO
LESS THAN 5 MPH OVER THE MAINLAND AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PWAT VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER
THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS AS THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THE
HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS
AND BISCAYNE BAY HAVE FALLEN BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BE
BELOW 15 KNOTS IN ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 6 FEET AND
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT WITH THE GULF SEAS REMAIN BELOW
6 FEET.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA.
PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WARRANT CONTINUATION OF HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGH FOR MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE OF A SCATTERED RANGE ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN A EASTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE EACH DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL
0Z THIS EVENING.  THE WINDS BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 6
FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. THE GULF SEAS
WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  92  78 /  50  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  91  80 /  50  30  40  20
MIAMI            91  79  92  79 /  60  40  40  20
NAPLES           91  79  91  78 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 310646
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
A WEAK LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TOGETHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, KEPT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
THE TROUGH THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
IS LOCATED OVER FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX TO
LESS THAN 5 MPH OVER THE MAINLAND AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PWAT VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER
THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS AS THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THE
HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS
AND BISCAYNE BAY HAVE FALLEN BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BE
BELOW 15 KNOTS IN ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 6 FEET AND
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT WITH THE GULF SEAS REMAIN BELOW
6 FEET.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA.
PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WARRANT CONTINUATION OF HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGH FOR MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE OF A SCATTERED RANGE ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN A EASTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE EACH DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL
0Z THIS EVENING.  THE WINDS BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 6
FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. THE GULF SEAS
WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  92  78 /  50  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  91  80 /  50  30  40  20
MIAMI            91  79  92  79 /  60  40  40  20
NAPLES           91  79  91  78 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 310646
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
A WEAK LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TOGETHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, KEPT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
THE TROUGH THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
IS LOCATED OVER FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX TO
LESS THAN 5 MPH OVER THE MAINLAND AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PWAT VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER
THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS AS THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THE
HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS
AND BISCAYNE BAY HAVE FALLEN BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BE
BELOW 15 KNOTS IN ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 6 FEET AND
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT WITH THE GULF SEAS REMAIN BELOW
6 FEET.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA.
PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WARRANT CONTINUATION OF HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGH FOR MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE OF A SCATTERED RANGE ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN A EASTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE EACH DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL
0Z THIS EVENING.  THE WINDS BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 6
FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. THE GULF SEAS
WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  92  78 /  50  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  91  80 /  50  30  40  20
MIAMI            91  79  92  79 /  60  40  40  20
NAPLES           91  79  91  78 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 310646
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
246 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
A WEAK LOW REMAINS OVER THE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TOGETHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST, THE WIND WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, KEPT VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR ANY DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE TAF SITES. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

UPDATE...
THE TROUGH THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
IS LOCATED OVER FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX TO
LESS THAN 5 MPH OVER THE MAINLAND AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PWAT VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER
THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS AS THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THE
HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS
AND BISCAYNE BAY HAVE FALLEN BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BE
BELOW 15 KNOTS IN ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 6 FEET AND
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT WITH THE GULF SEAS REMAIN BELOW
6 FEET.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA.
PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WARRANT CONTINUATION OF HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGH FOR MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE OF A SCATTERED RANGE ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN A EASTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE EACH DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL
0Z THIS EVENING.  THE WINDS BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 6
FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. THE GULF SEAS
WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  92  78 /  50  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  91  80 /  50  30  40  20
MIAMI            91  79  92  79 /  60  40  40  20
NAPLES           91  79  91  78 /  60  40  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 302354
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
THE TROUGH THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA
IS LOCATED OVER FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TONIGHT
AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO RELAX TO
LESS THAN 5 MPH OVER THE MAINLAND AREA LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE SUBSIDENCE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE PWAT VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH SHOULD HELP TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE OVER
THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS AS THIS AREA IS CLOSER TO THE TROUGH. THE
HIGH PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.AVIATION...
EAST COAST HAS BEEN RELATIVELY DRY FOR LAST FEW HOURS...SO REMOVED
TEMPO GROUPS AND CARRIED VCSH THROUGH 15Z...REPLACED BY VCTS
THEREAFTER. AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE VCSH
ALTOGETHER OVER THE OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO MAY EVENTUALLY NEED
PROB30/TEMPO GROUPS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. FOR NAPLES...WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ONGOING...SO PREVAIL TSRA FOR SEVERAL HOURS...FOLLOWED
BY TEMPO GROUP...THEN VCTS THROUGH REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS PSBL ALL TERMINALS IN PCPN...BUT MORE EXTENDED VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN TS/RA LIKELY IN NAPLES...AT LEAST THROUGH 6Z. SE
WINDS NEAR 5 KT OVNGT...THEN INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BY MIDDAY
MONDAY. NAPLES WILL SEE GULF BREEZE FROM SSW DURG AFTN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS HAVE FALLEN BELOW
20 KNOTS EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THE WINDS OVER THE GULF WATERS
AND BISCAYNE BAY HAVE FALLEN BELOW 15 KNOTS. THE WINDS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND SHOULD BE
BELOW 15 KNOTS IN ALL OF THE LOCAL WATERS BY MONDAY MORNING. THE
SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS HAVE ALSO FALLEN BELOW 6 FEET AND
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT WITH THE GULF SEAS REMAIN BELOW
6 FEET.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM...
REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE AREA.
PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WARRANT CONTINUATION OF HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGH FOR MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE OF A SCATTERED RANGE ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN A EASTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE EACH DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL
0Z THIS EVENING.  THE WINDS BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 6
FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. THE GULF SEAS
WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  78  92 /  30  50  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  91 /  30  50  30  40
MIAMI            78  90  79  92 /  30  60  40  40
NAPLES           77  90  79  91 /  70  60  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301949
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
THE AREA. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WARRANT CONTINUATION OF HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGH FOR MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE OF A SCATTERED RANGE ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.


.LONG TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN A EASTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE EACH DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL
0Z THIS EVENING.  THE WINDS BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 6
FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. THE GULF SEAS
WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  78  92 /  70  50  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  91 /  70  50  30  40
MIAMI            78  90  79  92 /  70  60  40  40
NAPLES           77  90  79  91 /  60  60  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301949
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...
...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EAST COAST BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT KEEPING A SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER
THE AREA. PWAT VALUES WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE 2 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WARRANT CONTINUATION OF HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL THEN MOVE INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO SWING FROM A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ON MONDAY TO MORE OF AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION ON TUESDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER
PATTERN WILL KEEP THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THEREFORE...POPS WILL REMAIN
HIGH FOR MONDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE OF A SCATTERED RANGE ON
TUESDAY EXCEPT NUMEROUS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.


.LONG TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE
WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH FLORIDA IN A EASTERLY WIND FLOW
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEK ALLOWING FOR BOTH THE EAST AND
WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN THE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RANGE EACH DAY
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ON ATLANTIC WATERS UNTIL
0Z THIS EVENING.  THE WINDS BE SOUTHERLY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...AS THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE DECREASING FROM
AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 15 KNOTS BY
MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS TO SUBSIDE FROM 6
FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS BY TONIGHT. THE GULF SEAS
WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  78  92 /  70  50  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  91 /  70  50  30  40
MIAMI            78  90  79  92 /  70  60  40  40
NAPLES           77  90  79  91 /  60  60  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301812
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
212 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PLACED VCSH IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT IF ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP, VCTS MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. WINDS CAN EASILY GUST
TO 30KTS WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AT APF THIS
AFTERNOON IF THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP UNDER THE STRONGER
SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT,
WITH THE WEST COAST BECOMING MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  78  92 /  70  60  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  79  91 /  70  60  30  40
MIAMI            78  90  79  92 /  70  60  30  40
NAPLES           77  90  77  92 /  80  70  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301812
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
212 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE ONSHORE
ACROSS THE EAST COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. PLACED VCSH IN
THE TAFS FOR NOW BUT IF ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP, VCTS MAY BE
NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. WINDS CAN EASILY GUST
TO 30KTS WITH ANY OF THE SHOWERS. STORMS MAY DEVELOP AT APF THIS
AFTERNOON IF THERE IS ENOUGH HEATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST. MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP UNDER THE STRONGER
SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT,
WITH THE WEST COAST BECOMING MORE ACTIVE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  78  92 /  70  60  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  90  79  91 /  70  60  30  40
MIAMI            78  90  79  92 /  70  60  30  40
NAPLES           77  90  77  92 /  80  70  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301343
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH 12Z RAOB PWAT AT 2.4". HVY
RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES WITH TRAINING LINES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS APPROACHING THE EAST COAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SOLID 2 TO 3
INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT, SO ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS WHICH CONTAIN
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE METRO AREAS THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED FAVORABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 6.8C/KM AND
FAIR H5 TEMPS AROUND -7C. KEY TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS SOME STRONG STORMS, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR
AND WEST, WILL BE BASED UPON HEATING LATER TODAY. LLVL
SHR/HELICITY AND WIND PROFILES SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. BY 0Z MONDAY,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS JUST OFFSHORE OF NAPLES, WHICH SHOULD ALSO
PLACE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT LINE OF
HVY RAIN AND CONVECTION MAY TRAIN RIGHT OVER MIA/OPF OVER THE
NEXT HR OR SO. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE STUNTED BY CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY THIS AM, SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR APF. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE SOUTH OF PBI THROUGH
THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHWS/STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT EAST
COAST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            85  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           88  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301343
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH 12Z RAOB PWAT AT 2.4". HVY
RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES WITH TRAINING LINES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS APPROACHING THE EAST COAST FROM THE SOUTHEAST. SOLID 2 TO 3
INCHES FELL OVERNIGHT, SO ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS WHICH CONTAIN
INTENSE RAINFALL RATES CAN QUICKLY LEAD TO URBAN STREET FLOODING
IN THE METRO AREAS THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED FAVORABLE H7-H5 LAPSE RATES OF 6.8C/KM AND
FAIR H5 TEMPS AROUND -7C. KEY TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH PERHAPS SOME STRONG STORMS, ESPECIALLY INTERIOR
AND WEST, WILL BE BASED UPON HEATING LATER TODAY. LLVL
SHR/HELICITY AND WIND PROFILES SUGGEST STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. BY 0Z MONDAY,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS JUST OFFSHORE OF NAPLES, WHICH SHOULD ALSO
PLACE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG THE WEST COAST INTO THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 745 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT LINE OF
HVY RAIN AND CONVECTION MAY TRAIN RIGHT OVER MIA/OPF OVER THE
NEXT HR OR SO. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE STUNTED BY CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY THIS AM, SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR APF. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE SOUTH OF PBI THROUGH
THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHWS/STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT EAST
COAST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            85  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           88  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301145
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT LINE OF
HVY RAIN AND CONVECTION MAY TRAIN RIGHT OVER MIA/OPF OVER THE
NEXT HR OR SO. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE STUNTED BY CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY THIS AM, SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR APF. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE SOUTH OF PBI THROUGH
THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHWS/STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT EAST
COAST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301145
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT LINE OF
HVY RAIN AND CONVECTION MAY TRAIN RIGHT OVER MIA/OPF OVER THE
NEXT HR OR SO. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE STUNTED BY CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY THIS AM, SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR APF. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE SOUTH OF PBI THROUGH
THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHWS/STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT EAST
COAST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301145
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT LINE OF
HVY RAIN AND CONVECTION MAY TRAIN RIGHT OVER MIA/OPF OVER THE
NEXT HR OR SO. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE STUNTED BY CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY THIS AM, SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR APF. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE SOUTH OF PBI THROUGH
THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHWS/STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT EAST
COAST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301145
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
745 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE FROM THE
OFFSHORE MIAMI-DADE WATERS THROUGH THIS MORNING. CURRENT LINE OF
HVY RAIN AND CONVECTION MAY TRAIN RIGHT OVER MIA/OPF OVER THE
NEXT HR OR SO. MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IF THIS OCCURS. AFTERNOON
CONVECTION MAY BE STUNTED BY CLOUDS AND ACTIVITY THIS AM, SO WILL
NOT ADD ANY TEMPO GROUPS AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR APF. BASED ON
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS, MOST ACTIVITY MAY BE SOUTH OF PBI THROUGH
THIS MORNING. NUMEROUS SHWS/STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN AFFECT EAST
COAST TERMINALS INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3-6" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUESDAY)...
THE CURRENT ANALYSIS IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS SHOWS A CLOSED LOW
PRESSURE AREA CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE AXIS
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT
THE SURFACE, A TROUGH WHICH IS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDS FROM
THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE WESTERN BAHAMAS. THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE BUILDING BACK TO THE WEST WHILE THE SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE BY TUESDAY AS WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK TO THE WEST.

GIVEN THE ABOVE SCENARIO, PWAT IS FORECAST TO JUMP TO NEAR 2.25"
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN AT THAT LEVEL THROUGH MONDAY WITH A DEEP
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW OF TROPICAL AIR. THE FIRST BAND FROM THE
REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVED ONTO THE SOUTHEAST COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS SINCE THAT TIME. THIS WILL ONLY CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS WITH 2-4" OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS LIKELY TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.
EVEN HIGHER TOTALS MAY OCCUR WHEREVER CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP
WITH MULTIPLE BANDS TRAINING ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IF THIS WET TREND CONTINUES INTO
MONDAY EVENING AS SOME OF THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING. BY TUESDAY,
SLIGHT DRYING ALOFT WILL OCCUR AS THE MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN.
HOWEVER, PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER BELOW 2" BUT STILL REMAIN AT
CLIMATOLOGICAL LEVELS FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER SO POPS WILL CONTINUE ON
THE HIGH END ALTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR FLOODING SHOULD END.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY)...
A DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL RETURN TO THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE GRADIENT FLOW BECOMING EXTREMELY WEEK BY THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS THE HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. THIS
PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR RAIN TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND SOUTHWEST COAST AT MIDWEEK AND THEN MOSTLY INTERIOR
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SEA BREEZE
INTERACTION.

&&

.MARINE...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA WATERS TODAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A
SCA WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY AS THE WIND BECOMES 20-25
KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND CLOSE TO 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. THE WIND
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE TROUGH
WEAKENS AND MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BUT A SCEC
STATEMENT WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE LOCAL WATERS BY THE END OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
LOCALLY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT AND
POSSIBLY INTO MONDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA MOVE THROUGH.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-4" ARE LIKELY BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH EVEN
ISOLATED MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS IF CONVERGENT BOUNDARIES SET UP AND
STRONGER CELLS TRAIN ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
MIAMI            88  78  90  79 /  90  70  60  30
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  80  80  70  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300625
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ARE BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A BREEZY EAST WIND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE VCTS
AND TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAFS, AS WELL AS PROB30 GROUPS FROM LATER IN
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF IFR UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

.FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
.SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  79  89  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
MIAMI            88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
NAPLES           88  77  89  76 /  80  70  80  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300625
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ARE BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A BREEZY EAST WIND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE VCTS
AND TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAFS, AS WELL AS PROB30 GROUPS FROM LATER IN
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF IFR UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

.FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
.SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  79  89  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
MIAMI            88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
NAPLES           88  77  89  76 /  80  70  80  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300625
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ARE BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A BREEZY EAST WIND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE VCTS
AND TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAFS, AS WELL AS PROB30 GROUPS FROM LATER IN
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF IFR UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

.FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
.SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  79  89  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
MIAMI            88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
NAPLES           88  77  89  76 /  80  70  80  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300625
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
225 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ARE BRINGING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A BREEZY EAST WIND. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH
THEM. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING. HAVE VCTS
AND TEMPO TSRA IN THE TAFS, AS WELL AS PROB30 GROUPS FROM LATER IN
THE PERIOD. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF IFR UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

.FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
.SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  79  89  78 /  90  70  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
MIAMI            88  79  89  79 /  90  70  60  40
NAPLES           88  77  89  76 /  80  70  80  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-
     172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300015
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
815 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

THERE ARE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BANDS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCSH AT 00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH WITH PASSING SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. AROUND 06Z AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THUS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS AT 06Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION WINDS AROUND 06Z EXPECTED TO BE IN 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

..FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
..SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  80  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
MIAMI            92  79  88  79 /  50  80  90  70
NAPLES           94  77  88  77 /  70  40  80  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300015
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
815 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

THERE ARE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BANDS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCSH AT 00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH WITH PASSING SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. AROUND 06Z AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THUS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS AT 06Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION WINDS AROUND 06Z EXPECTED TO BE IN 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

..FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
..SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  80  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
MIAMI            92  79  88  79 /  50  80  90  70
NAPLES           94  77  88  77 /  70  40  80  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300015
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
815 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

THERE ARE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BANDS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCSH AT 00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH WITH PASSING SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. AROUND 06Z AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THUS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS AT 06Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION WINDS AROUND 06Z EXPECTED TO BE IN 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

..FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
..SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  80  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
MIAMI            92  79  88  79 /  50  80  90  70
NAPLES           94  77  88  77 /  70  40  80  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300015
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
815 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

THERE ARE ONLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AS BANDS OF SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION. ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCSH AT 00Z WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL DURING THE EVENING HOURS ALTHOUGH WITH PASSING SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. AROUND 06Z AN ADDITIONAL SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS
FORECAST WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO INCREASE. THUS ALL
SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS ASSIGNED VCTS AT 06Z WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB- VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION WINDS AROUND 06Z EXPECTED TO BE IN 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

..FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
..SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  80  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  88  79 /  40  80  90  70
MIAMI            92  79  88  79 /  50  80  90  70
NAPLES           94  77  88  77 /  70  40  80  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM 5 AM EDT SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 292037
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  88  79  89 /  80  90  70  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  88  79  89 /  80  90  70  60
MIAMI            79  88  79  89 /  80  90  70  60
NAPLES           77  88  77  89 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-
     066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 292037
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
437 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT..
...SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA EXTENDING FROM CUBA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMA
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING IN VERY DEEP MOISTURE TO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
IN THE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE WIND DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA IN A
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION ALONG WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE LIKELY CATEGORY
FOR MONDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES...AND HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY IN THE ZONES. A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
SOUTH FL. MORE DETAILS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE HYDRO SECTION
BELOW.

.LONG TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WIND FLOW
TO SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND BRING IN SOME DRIER AIR TO THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL RETURN TO MORE LATE TIME SUMMER
PATTERN WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXCEPT NUMEROUS
COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS LATE TONIGHT TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...AND 15
TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET IN THE GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...AN SCA
WILL BE PUT UP FOR THE ATLANTIC AND BISCAYNE BAY WATERS FOR
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND A SCEC FOR THE GULF AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE
WATERS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL IS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOCALLY MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE
THUNDERSTORMS TRAIN. THEREFORE...A FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  88  79  89 /  80  90  70  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  88  79  89 /  80  90  70  60
MIAMI            79  88  79  89 /  80  90  70  60
NAPLES           77  88  77  89 /  40  80  70  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ063-
     066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




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