000
FXUS62 KMFL 221856
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
...DRIER WEATHER COMING FOR MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...
.SHORT TERM...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
ALONG THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES HAVE ALSO
DEVELOPED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINING
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FOR CONTINUATION OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR
AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. SO WILL CONTINUE
THE SCATTERED POPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED POPS
OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.
THE LOW AND THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA
ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND ON
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT...DUE TO THE MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH THE LIGHT SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS. SO HAVE ADDED PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
A COLD FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY...BEFORE MOVING
SOUTH THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL ONLY
BRING IN DRY AIR TO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND KEEPING THE
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE WINDS WILL
ALSO BECOME BREEZY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND BEHIND
THE FRONT...DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN THE
HIGH BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE FRONT
STALLING OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS ON SATURDAY...AND WILL INCREASE THE WINDS TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND.
.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER SOUTHERN UNITED STATES
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE STATIONARY FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY BACK NORTH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MOISTURE TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SO WILL KEEP THE THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MEMORIAL DAY AND CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA.
&&
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY ACTIVITY TO MOVE
DIRECTLY INTO TERMINALS. FOR THAT REASON...KEPT VCTS EVERYWHERE
THROUGH 23Z. EASTERLY FLOW AT ALL EASTERN TERMINALS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT...AS DRAINAGE FLOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE MORNING. SOME FOG
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MOVE NEAR KTMB...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ATTM TO PUT IT IN THE FORECAST. FOR KAPF...SEA BREEZE
ALREADY DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND. THIS FLOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL
23Z...AND DRAINAGE FLOW WILL POSSIBLY DEVELOP TOWARDS THE MORNING.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE SWINGING TO A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION AND INCREASING TO AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR LATE
THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THIS WEEKEND FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS...EXCEPT FOR
THE GULF STREAM SEAS WHERE THEY COULD BUILD TO 6 FEET LATE THIS
WEEKEND BEHIND THE FRONT.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 87 72 89 / 30 30 20 10
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 88 75 90 / 30 20 10 10
MIAMI 74 89 74 91 / 30 20 10 10
NAPLES 72 86 72 88 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...17/ERA
000
FXUS62 KMFL 221337 AAC
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE 2...TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LITTLE BIT OF DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO
THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP TODAY AND PUSH INLAND. THE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINING NEAR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST STEERING FLOW OVER THE AREA.
SO THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE BY NOON TIME WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE LAND AREAS. SO WILL KEEP THE
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW STRONG STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST
COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE
MORNING HWO PACKAGE.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/
AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH TERMINALS KMIA...KOPF AND KTMB
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS. THERE IS A LINGERING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AVAILABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY WITH ALL TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 15Z EXCEPT FOR TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED AT 16Z. FOR
ALL TERMINALS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/
UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH
MOVEMENT ONSHORE THE COAST. SOME ARE BECOMING HEAVY WITH EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM IN FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
DETECTED. GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR DEPICTION, HAVE INCREASED
WEATHER TO NUMEROUS FOR ALL OF THE EAST COAST AND INTERIOR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...A MID-UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
GET PICKED UP AND MERGED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES SUFFICIENT TODAY
TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. HRRR IS SHOWING NUMEROUS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO THE WEST
PALM BEACH METRO AREA. A FEW STRONG TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN RESIDUAL COLD AIR ALOFT
AS WELL AS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SLOWLY BE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY. STILL, WE WILL HIGHLIGHT A FEW STRONG TSTORMS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE TREND THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS A DRYING ONE WITH LESS
AND LESS SHOWER AND TSTORMS ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THIS IS THE RESULT
OF THE LOCAL AREA BEING EAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND
WEST OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WHICH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE. THAT
BEING SAID, THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON TSTORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY, AND
ISOLATED TSTORMS FRIDAY. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DISSIPATES AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY LOOKS HOT
AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT WITH LOWER 90S MOST LOCALES. THEN
OVER THE WEEKEND IT TURNS BREEZY ON A NORTHEAST WIND AS THE STRONG
HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. THE NORTHEAST WIND IS FORECAST TO LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID 60S THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S MAKING IT FEEL
NICE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GULF COAST ALONG WITH A STRONGER WIND.
FOR NEXT WEEK, MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST, LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES ARE IN THE
OFFING.
MARINE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THIS MORNING THEN RATHER
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN SEAS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC. SWAN IS GENERATING
SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 72 87 73 / 60 40 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 74 88 76 / 60 40 30 20
MIAMI 87 74 89 76 / 60 40 30 20
NAPLES 86 71 86 72 / 30 10 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...17/ERA
000
FXUS62 KMFL 221119
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
719 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA WITH TERMINALS KMIA...KOPF AND KTMB
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS. THERE IS A LINGERING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND AVAILABLE TROPICAL MOISTURE THAT IS
EXPECTED TO ENHANCE CHANCES OF CONVECTION TODAY WITH ALL TERMINALS
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 15Z EXCEPT FOR TERMINAL KAPF ASSIGNED AT 16Z. FOR
ALL TERMINALS BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 523 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/
UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH
MOVEMENT ONSHORE THE COAST. SOME ARE BECOMING HEAVY WITH EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM IN FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
DETECTED. GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR DEPICTION, HAVE INCREASED
WEATHER TO NUMEROUS FOR ALL OF THE EAST COAST AND INTERIOR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...A MID-UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
GET PICKED UP AND MERGED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES SUFFICIENT TODAY
TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. HRRR IS SHOWING NUMEROUS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO THE WEST
PALM BEACH METRO AREA. A FEW STRONG TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN RESIDUAL COLD AIR ALOFT
AS WELL AS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SLOWLY BE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY. STILL, WE WILL HIGHLIGHT A FEW STRONG TSTORMS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE TREND THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS A DRYING ONE WITH LESS
AND LESS SHOWER AND TSTORMS ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THIS IS THE RESULT
OF THE LOCAL AREA BEING EAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND
WEST OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WHICH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE. THAT
BEING SAID, THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON TSTORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY, AND
ISOLATED TSTORMS FRIDAY. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DISSIPATES AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY LOOKS HOT
AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT WITH LOWER 90S MOST LOCALES. THEN
OVER THE WEEKEND IT TURNS BREEZY ON A NORTHEAST WIND AS THE STRONG
HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. THE NORTHEAST WIND IS FORECAST TO LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID 60S THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S MAKING IT FEEL
NICE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GULF COAST ALONG WITH A STRONGER WIND.
FOR NEXT WEEK, MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST, LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES ARE IN THE
OFFING.
MARINE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THIS MORNING THEN RATHER
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN SEAS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC. SWAN IS GENERATING
SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 72 87 73 / 60 30 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 74 88 76 / 60 20 30 20
MIAMI 87 74 89 76 / 60 20 30 20
NAPLES 85 71 86 72 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...17/ERA
000
FXUS62 KMFL 220923
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
523 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.UPDATE...SHOWERS HAVE RECENTLY INCREASED OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH
MOVEMENT ONSHORE THE COAST. SOME ARE BECOMING HEAVY WITH EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM IN FAR SOUTH MIAMI-DADE WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES
DETECTED. GIVEN THE RADAR TRENDS AND HRRR DEPICTION, HAVE INCREASED
WEATHER TO NUMEROUS FOR ALL OF THE EAST COAST AND INTERIOR THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013/
DISCUSSION...A MID-UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
GET PICKED UP AND MERGED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES SUFFICIENT TODAY
TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. HRRR IS SHOWING NUMEROUS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO THE WEST
PALM BEACH METRO AREA. A FEW STRONG TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN RESIDUAL COLD AIR ALOFT
AS WELL AS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SLOWLY BE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY. STILL, WE WILL HIGHLIGHT A FEW STRONG TSTORMS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE TREND THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS A DRYING ONE WITH LESS
AND LESS SHOWER AND TSTORMS ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THIS IS THE RESULT
OF THE LOCAL AREA BEING EAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND
WEST OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WHICH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE. THAT
BEING SAID, THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON TSTORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY, AND
ISOLATED TSTORMS FRIDAY. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DISSIPATES AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY LOOKS HOT
AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT WITH LOWER 90S MOST LOCALES. THEN
OVER THE WEEKEND IT TURNS BREEZY ON A NORTHEAST WIND AS THE STRONG
HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. THE NORTHEAST WIND IS FORECAST TO LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID 60S THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S MAKING IT FEEL
NICE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GULF COAST ALONG WITH A STRONGER WIND.
FOR NEXT WEEK, MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST, LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES ARE IN THE
OFFING.
MARINE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THIS MORNING THEN RATHER
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN SEAS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC. SWAN IS GENERATING
SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 72 87 73 / 60 30 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 74 88 76 / 60 20 30 20
MIAMI 87 74 89 76 / 60 20 30 20
NAPLES 85 71 86 72 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KMFL 220756
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
356 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.DISCUSSION...A MID-UPPER TROUGH JUST OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST WILL
GET PICKED UP AND MERGED BY A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY CONTINUES SUFFICIENT TODAY
TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. HRRR IS SHOWING NUMEROUS ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
FOCUS OF TSTORMS LOOKS TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TO THE WEST
PALM BEACH METRO AREA. A FEW STRONG TSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN RESIDUAL COLD AIR ALOFT
AS WELL AS SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM
BEACH COUNTY. HOWEVER, MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL SLOWLY BE WARMING
THROUGH THE DAY. STILL, WE WILL HIGHLIGHT A FEW STRONG TSTORMS IN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
THE TREND THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IS A DRYING ONE WITH LESS
AND LESS SHOWER AND TSTORMS ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THIS IS THE RESULT
OF THE LOCAL AREA BEING EAST OF A BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE GULF AND
WEST OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH WHICH WILL PROMOTE SUBSIDENCE. THAT
BEING SAID, THERE STILL LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON TSTORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY, AND
ISOLATED TSTORMS FRIDAY. THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO
FLORIDA ON FRIDAY. THIS FRONT DISSIPATES AND A STRONG SURFACE HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE EASTERN U.S. OVER THE WEEKEND. FRIDAY LOOKS HOT
AHEAD OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT WITH LOWER 90S MOST LOCALES. THEN
OVER THE WEEKEND IT TURNS BREEZY ON A NORTHEAST WIND AS THE STRONG
HIGH MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
LOCALLY. THE NORTHEAST WIND IS FORECAST TO LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID 60S THIS WEEKEND, POSSIBLY EVEN LOWER 60S MAKING IT FEEL
NICE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WHERE TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE GULF COAST ALONG WITH A STRONGER WIND.
FOR NEXT WEEK, MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE AS WINDS TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST, LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF DAILY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES ARE IN THE
OFFING.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THIS MORNING THEN RATHER
LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN SEAS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC. SWAN IS GENERATING
SEAS OF UP TO 5 FEET OVER THE ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 72 87 73 / 60 30 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 74 88 76 / 50 20 30 20
MIAMI 87 74 89 76 / 50 20 30 20
NAPLES 85 71 86 72 / 40 20 10 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/GREGORIA
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD
000
FXUS62 KMFL 220544
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
144 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM...PASSING SHOWERS WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL EAST
COAST TERMINALS EXCEPT KPBI FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE
OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OCCURRING IN THIS PERIOD WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHOWERS. BY LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE COMBINATION
OF THE WEST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES...A LINGERING UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN VCTS ALL TERMINALS AROUND
15Z.
60
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 949 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
UPDATE...
UPDATED PRODUCTS EARLIER TO CANCEL FLOOD WATCH BUT HAVE KEPT SCT
POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT IS OVER, BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN THE VICINITY
CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME.
LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES SOUTHEASTERLY SO THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
BE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE BIT OF CONVERGENCE
CAN SET UP WITH LESSENING FLOW NEAR THE COAST. THE HRRR CYCLE
SEEMS TO CHANGE EVERY TWO TO THREE HOURS BUT THE LATEST RUN IS
SHOWING QUIET ACTIVITY THROUGH 06Z BUT THE EARLIER RUN HAD SHOWN A
FLARE UP OF CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS AND SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY 03Z
TONIGHT AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. SO WILL KEEP VCSH
IN THE ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES UNTIL 03Z...BEFORE GOING DRY
FOR REST OF TONIGHT. THE WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN IN A
EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL 15Z BEFORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO
WILL PUT IN A VCTS FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES AFTER 15Z ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AND REMAIN
EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF SITE...WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BECOME WESTERLY DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITION TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
COAST METRO AREAS...
SHORT TERM...
THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WERE DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH
COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SEA BREEZES
WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THE
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS
THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE GPS-MET SATELLITE IMAGES WHERE SHOWING THE PWAT VALUES TO BE
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE AVERAGE PWAT VALUE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS AROUND
1.35 INCHES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SO, WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
FLOODING TO OCCUR...AS THE GROUNDS ARE VERY SATURATED FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STORMS YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE DRIER AIR WILL STICK AROUND ON
THURSDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZES WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS.
LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS FORECAST BY
THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FOR
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE GOING DRY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO KEPT VCTS FOR ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING THE BEST DYNAMICS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO START NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST
DIRECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 6 FEET FOR BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 6 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST OF THIS WEEK. SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 74 88 73 / 50 40 30 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 86 77 88 76 / 50 30 30 20
MIAMI 87 76 89 75 / 50 30 30 20
NAPLES 87 71 88 71 / 40 20 20 10
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/DG
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD
000
FXUS62 KMFL 220149
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
949 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED PRODUCTS EARLIER TO CANCEL FLOOD WATCH BUT HAVE KEPT SCT
POPS GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEAVY RAIN
THREAT IS OVER, BUT WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN THE VICINITY
CANNOT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AT ANY TIME.
LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES SOUTHEASTERLY SO THE GREATEST THREAT WILL
BE THE SOUTHEAST COAST ESPECIALLY IF A LITTLE BIT OF CONVERGENCE
CAN SET UP WITH LESSENING FLOW NEAR THE COAST. THE HRRR CYCLE
SEEMS TO CHANGE EVERY TWO TO THREE HOURS BUT THE LATEST RUN IS
SHOWING QUIET ACTIVITY THROUGH 06Z BUT THE EARLIER RUN HAD SHOWN A
FLARE UP OF CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT WIDESPREAD.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS AND SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY 03Z
TONIGHT AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. SO WILL KEEP VCSH
IN THE ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES UNTIL 03Z...BEFORE GOING DRY
FOR REST OF TONIGHT. THE WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN IN A
EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL 15Z BEFORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO
WILL PUT IN A VCTS FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES AFTER 15Z ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AND REMAIN
EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF SITE...WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BECOME WESTERLY DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITION TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
.FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
COAST METRO AREAS...
SHORT TERM...
THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WERE DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH
COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SEA BREEZES
WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THE
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS
THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE GPS-MET SATELLITE IMAGES WHERE SHOWING THE PWAT VALUES TO BE
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE AVERAGE PWAT VALUE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS AROUND
1.35 INCHES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SO, WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
FLOODING TO OCCUR...AS THE GROUNDS ARE VERY SATURATED FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STORMS YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE DRIER AIR WILL STICK AROUND ON
THURSDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZES WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS.
LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS FORECAST BY
THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FOR
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE GOING DRY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO KEPT VCTS FOR ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING THE BEST DYNAMICS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO START NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST
DIRECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 6 FEET FOR BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 6 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST OF THIS WEEK. SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 86 74 88 / 40 50 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 86 77 88 / 40 50 30 30
MIAMI 73 87 76 89 / 40 50 30 30
NAPLES 70 87 71 88 / 30 40 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KMFL 212358 AAB
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
758 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS AND SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY 03Z
TONIGHT AND REMAIN DRY THROUGH 15Z ON WEDNESDAY. SO WILL KEEP VCSH
IN THE ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES UNTIL 03Z...BEFORE GOING DRY
FOR REST OF TONIGHT. THE WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALSO REMAIN IN A
EASTERLY DIRECTION AT 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES.
ON WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL 15Z BEFORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO
WILL PUT IN A VCTS FOR ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES AFTER 15Z ON
WEDNESDAY. THE EASTERLY WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO AROUND 10
KNOTS WEDNESDAY MORNING AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES AND REMAIN
EASTERLY AT 10 KNOTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF SITE...WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL BECOME WESTERLY DUE TO THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITION TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 245 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
COAST METRO AREAS...
SHORT TERM...
THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WERE DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH
COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SEA BREEZES
WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THE
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS
THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE GPS-MET SATELLITE IMAGES WHERE SHOWING THE PWAT VALUES TO BE
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE AVERAGE PWAT VALUE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS AROUND
1.35 INCHES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SO, WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
FLOODING TO OCCUR...AS THE GROUNDS ARE VERY SATURATED FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STORMS YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE DRIER AIR WILL STICK AROUND ON
THURSDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZES WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS.
LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS FORECAST BY
THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FOR
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE GOING DRY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO KEPT VCTS FOR ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING THE BEST DYNAMICS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO START NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST
DIRECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 6 FEET FOR BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 6 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST OF THIS WEEK. SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 86 74 88 / 40 50 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 86 77 88 / 40 50 30 30
MIAMI 73 87 76 89 / 40 50 30 30
NAPLES 70 87 71 88 / 30 40 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...54/BNB
000
FXUS62 KMFL 211845
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
245 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR EAST
COAST METRO AREAS...
.SHORT TERM...
THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WERE DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH
COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE SEA BREEZES
WILL PUSH SLOWLY INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HELPING TO GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. THE
STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AS
THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THE GPS-MET SATELLITE IMAGES WHERE SHOWING THE PWAT VALUES TO BE
BETWEEN 1.6 TO 1.7 INCHES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE AVERAGE PWAT VALUE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS AROUND
1.35 INCHES FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. SO, WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
THE HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
FLOODING TO OCCUR...AS THE GROUNDS ARE VERY SATURATED FROM THE
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE STORMS YESTERDAY. THEREFORE...THE FLOOD
WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING.
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MOVE EAST TONIGHT THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA MOVES EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON WEDNESDAY WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE DRIER AIR WILL STICK AROUND ON
THURSDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY TO ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZES WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS.
.LONG TERM...
A COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS FORECAST BY
THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MUCH DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH FOR
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE EARLY PART OF THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE GOING DRY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
PUSH SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SO KEPT VCTS FOR ALL
TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE NEAR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT
EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...PUSHING THE BEST DYNAMICS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. SO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO START NEAR
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY BELOW 10 KNOTS THROUGH LATE THIS
WEEK...BEFORE INCREASING TO BREEZY CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHEAST
DIRECTION FOR THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEAS TO REMAIN
BELOW 6 FEET FOR BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY THIS WEEKEND...BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 6 FEET IN THE GULF STREAM WATERS OF THE
ATLANTIC BY LATE THIS WEEKEND.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL
VALUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH REST OF THIS WEEK. SO NO PROBLEMS
ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 86 74 88 / 50 50 40 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 73 86 77 88 / 50 50 30 30
MIAMI 73 87 76 89 / 40 50 30 30
NAPLES 70 87 71 88 / 30 40 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-
COASTAL MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO
MIAMI DADE-METRO PALM BEACH.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 211347
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
947 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.UPDATE...
12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS UPPER LOW AROUND NE FLORIDA WITH AREA
OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE
SURFACE AND LOW LEVELS AREA CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SW SIDE OF A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS IS RESULTING IN WIND PROFILES WITH A
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR FROM THE SSW AT LESS THAT 5 KNOTS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE RUNNING FROM AROUND NORMAL WEST
COAST TO AROUND 20-30% ABOVE NORMAL EAST COAST. SO GIVEN THESE
FACTORS THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOOD PRODUCING RAINS
ANYWHERE WITHIN SOUTH FLORIDA. GIVEN ANTECEDENTS RAINS ALONG EAST
COAST YESTERDAY THE FLOOD WATCH WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS. THAT SAID, SOME OF THE MOST RELIABLE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HINT AT THE THREAT OF RAIN ENDING FOR EAST COAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. IF THAT TREND MATERIALIZES WE COULD CANCEL THE WATCH
MUCH EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED. BUT GIVEN POSITION OF UPPER LEVEL
LOW AND FLOW ALOFT IT IS TOO PREMATURE AT THIS TIME TO TAKE
ACTION ON THE BASIS OF THAT GUIDANCE ALONE. THE BOTTOM LINE IS
THERE IS STILL A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING OF STREETS AND EVEN
STRUCTURES MAINLY ALONG EAST COAST METRO AREAS TODAY. LAST BUT NOT
LEAST, CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS AND UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED LOW, AS WELL AS GOOD SURFACE
BASED HEATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR, SPELL POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
IN EXCESS OF 40-50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL TODAY WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS.
GRIDS AND FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 746 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
AVIATION...
SHOWERS WERE ALREADY MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER ACTIVE
DAY IS EXPECTED. STORMS SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARDS KPBI THIS AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS STORMS GO OVER THE
TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LINGERING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SO VCSH WAS KEPT AT ALL EASTERN TERMINALS.
FOR KAPF...SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 18Z...AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITE BETWEEN 18-21Z.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS NOW MOVED AWAY FROM THE MIAMI METRO AREA AND OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WEAKNESSES ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES AND VERY WEAK STORM MOTION...THESE
STORMS HAVE PUMMELED PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL RATES FROM 4 TO AS HIGH AS 8.55 INCHES. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHER TOTALS AS REPORTS COME IN LATER THIS
MORNING. THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AGAIN TODAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT PARAMETERS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING HIGH...RANGING BETWEEN 1.5-1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN AS DEPICTED
YESTERDAY. STILL BELIEVE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE SOILS ARE
SATURATED FROM TORRENTIAL RAINS OVERNIGHT. WITH FAIRLY HIGH PWATS
AND VERY WEAK MEAN STORM MOTION EXPECTED AGAIN...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR COASTAL AND METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BY WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE
NORTHEAST BEING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE BROAD H5 TROUGH ROUNDING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BUT HPC QPF AMOUNTS ARE
ONLY DEPICTED TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
SOME MUCH NEEDED DRY AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH
FLORIDA AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AVIATION...
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST OVER THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS REMAINING OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING BACK ASHORE THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH WORDING THROUGH THE NIGHT,
THEN VCTS THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND MODIFY THE
TAFS AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.
MARINE...
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 3
FEET. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING SEAS TO INCREASE TO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 73 86 75 / 70 30 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 74 86 78 / 60 30 50 20
MIAMI 85 73 87 76 / 60 30 50 20
NAPLES 88 71 87 71 / 50 30 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL
MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI
DADE-METRO PALM BEACH.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...52/PS
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 211146
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
746 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WERE ALREADY MOVING INLAND THIS MORNING AND ANOTHER ACTIVE
DAY IS EXPECTED. STORMS SHOULD MOVE TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
TODAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN TOWARDS KPBI THIS AFTERNOON.
PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AS STORMS GO OVER THE
TAF SITES. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LINGERING THROUGH THE
NIGHT...SO VCSH WAS KEPT AT ALL EASTERN TERMINALS.
FOR KAPF...SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND 18Z...AND SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITE BETWEEN 18-21Z.
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013/
DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY
RAINFALL HAS NOW MOVED AWAY FROM THE MIAMI METRO AREA AND OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. WEAKNESSES ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA AND WITH HIGH PWAT VALUES AND VERY WEAK STORM MOTION...THESE
STORMS HAVE PUMMELED PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH
TOTAL RAINFALL RATES FROM 4 TO AS HIGH AS 8.55 INCHES. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHER TOTALS AS REPORTS COME IN LATER THIS
MORNING. THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AGAIN TODAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT PARAMETERS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING HIGH...RANGING BETWEEN 1.5-1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN AS DEPICTED
YESTERDAY. STILL BELIEVE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE SOILS ARE
SATURATED FROM TORRENTIAL RAINS OVERNIGHT. WITH FAIRLY HIGH PWATS
AND VERY WEAK MEAN STORM MOTION EXPECTED AGAIN...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR COASTAL AND METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BY WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE
NORTHEAST BEING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE BROAD H5 TROUGH ROUNDING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BUT HPC QPF AMOUNTS ARE
ONLY DEPICTED TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
SOME MUCH NEEDED DRY AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH
FLORIDA AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
AVIATION...
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST OVER THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS REMAINING OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING BACK ASHORE THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH WORDING THROUGH THE NIGHT,
THEN VCTS THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND MODIFY THE
TAFS AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.
MARINE...
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 3
FEET. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING SEAS TO INCREASE TO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 73 86 75 / 70 30 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 74 86 78 / 60 30 50 20
MIAMI 85 73 87 76 / 60 30 50 20
NAPLES 88 71 87 71 / 40 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL
MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI
DADE-METRO PALM BEACH.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...52/PS
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 211106
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
706 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
...RESENT...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS
NOW MOVED AWAY FROM THE MIAMI METRO AREA AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. WEAKNESSES ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH
HIGH PWAT VALUES AND VERY WEAK STORM MOTION...THESE STORMS HAVE
PUMMELED PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH TOTAL
RAINFALL RATES FROM 4 TO AS HIGH AS 8.55 INCHES. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE HIGHER TOTALS AS REPORTS COME IN LATER THIS
MORNING. THE FOCUS NOW SHIFTS TO TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AGAIN TODAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT PARAMETERS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING HIGH...RANGING BETWEEN 1.5-1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN AS DEPICTED
YESTERDAY. STILL BELIEVE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE SOILS ARE
SATURATED FROM TORRENTIAL RAINS OVERNIGHT. WITH FAIRLY HIGH PWATS
AND VERY WEAK MEAN STORM MOTION EXPECTED AGAIN...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR COASTAL AND METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BY WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE
NORTHEAST BEING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE BROAD H5 TROUGH ROUNDING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BUT HPC QPF AMOUNTS ARE
ONLY DEPICTED TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
SOME MUCH NEEDED DRY AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH
FLORIDA AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST OVER THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS REMAINING OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING BACK ASHORE THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH WORDING THROUGH THE NIGHT,
THEN VCTS THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND MODIFY THE
TAFS AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.
&&
.MARINE...
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 3
FEET. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING SEAS TO INCREASE TO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 73 86 75 / 70 30 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 74 86 78 / 60 30 50 20
MIAMI 85 73 87 76 / 60 30 50 20
NAPLES 88 71 87 71 / 40 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL
MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI
DADE-METRO PALM BEACH.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
000
FXUS62 KMFL 210853
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
453 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR SHOWS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS NOW
MOVED AWAY FROM THE MIAMI METRO AREA AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. WEAKNESSES ALOFT HAVE ALLOWED THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH HIGH
PWAT VALUES AND VERY WEAK STORM MOTION...THESE STORMS HAVE PUMMELED
PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH TOTAL RAINFALL RATES
FROM 4 TO AS HIGH AS 8.55 INCHES. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
HIGHER TOTALS AS REPORTS COME IN LATER THIS MORNING. THE FOCUS NOW
SHIFTS TO TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN REGARD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL.
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN POSITIONED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AGAIN TODAY WHICH WILL ENHANCE ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT PARAMETERS SIMILAR TO THAT OF YESTERDAY WITH PWAT VALUES
REMAINING HIGH...RANGING BETWEEN 1.5-1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA.
500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN AS DEPICTED
YESTERDAY. STILL BELIEVE A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
MAIN THREAT FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE LOCALIZED FLOODING
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE SOILS ARE
SATURATED FROM TORRENTIAL RAINS OVERNIGHT. WITH FAIRLY HIGH PWATS
AND VERY WEAK MEAN STORM MOTION EXPECTED AGAIN...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR COASTAL AND METRO PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE
COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING.
BY WEDNESDAY THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SLOWLY RETREAT TO THE
NORTHEAST BEING ABSORBED BACK INTO THE BROAD H5 TROUGH ROUNDING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY BUT HPC QPF AMOUNTS ARE
ONLY DEPICTED TO BE AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS.
SOME MUCH NEEDED DRY AIR IS THEN EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE SOUTH
FLORIDA AREA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
&&
.AVIATION...
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST OVER THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS REMAINING OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING BACK ASHORE THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH WORDING THROUGH THE NIGHT,
THEN VCTS THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND MODIFY THE
TAFS AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.
&&
.MARINE...
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 1 TO 3
FEET. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING SEAS TO INCREASE TO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 85 73 86 75 / 70 30 60 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 74 86 78 / 60 30 50 20
MIAMI 85 73 87 76 / 60 30 50 20
NAPLES 88 71 87 71 / 40 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL BROWARD-COASTAL
MIAMI DADE-COASTAL PALM BEACH-METRO BROWARD-METRO MIAMI
DADE-METRO PALM BEACH.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
000
FXUS62 KMFL 210547
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013
.AVIATION...
THE BULK OF THE HEAVY RAINFALL HAS SHIFTED OFF THE COAST OVER THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS REMAINING OFF THE COAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING BACK ASHORE THROUGH THE DAY. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO KNOW EXACTLY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED THROUGH THE DAY.
THEREFORE...WE WILL CONTINUE WITH VCSH WORDING THROUGH THE NIGHT,
THEN VCTS THROUGH THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND MODIFY THE
TAFS AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AVIATION...
THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EASTERLY TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BUT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO MOVE WEST INTO
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. SO WILL KEEP VCSH
IN FOR ALL OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT. FOR KAPF TAF
SITE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT.
THE SHOWER THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AS THE HEATING
OF THE DAY GETS GOING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. SO AFTER 17Z ON TUESDAY ALL OF THE TAF SITES IN SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL HAVE VCTS. THE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN EASTERLY AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF
SITES...EXCEPT FOR KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THEY WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 17Z.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWERS FOR
TONIGHT AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS AT KFLL TAF SITE WHERE THEY COULD FALL INTO THE MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z...DUE TO KFLL SEE CURRENTLY BKN015
FROM A SHOWER NEAR BY.
AVIATION...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW GETTING CUT OFF OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH HAS CAUSED THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED FROM -6.7 CELSIUS FROM
LAST EVENING TO -7.5 THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES STRETCHING INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS
ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH PWAT GOING UP TO 1.66 INCHES THIS
MORNING WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD
GOING INTO THE LAST HALF OF MAY. EVEN THOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ALONG WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND FLOW ABOVE 10K IS FROM THE WEST. THUS, WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGING VERY LITTLE THE NEXT 48 HOURS THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE LOW OVER THE PENINSULA
GETS PHASED IN WITH THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL ALSO
FORCE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND THEN
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW
DRYING TREND. THERE WILL BE HOWEVER ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LOW CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION...
QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF US FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING WHILE
MOVING IN ALL DIRECTIONS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS REMAINING
WEST OF THE TERMINALS...A FEW COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH...THEREFORE
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THESE
TERMINALS...WITH STRONG GUSTS EXPECTED AS STORMS APPROACH. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO VCSH WAS KEPT AT ALL
EASTERN TERMINALS.
FOR KAPF...SEA BREEZE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND...AND
PREVAILING UNTIL 18-01Z. AFTER THAT...EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
WITH NO OTHER CONCERNS.
MARINE...
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 84 74 84 74 / 60 40 50 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 75 85 75 / 50 40 40 20
MIAMI 86 74 86 74 / 50 30 40 20
NAPLES 86 70 85 72 / 40 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
000
FXUS62 KMFL 202334 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
734 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
THE WINDS SHOULD REMAIN EASTERLY TONIGHT AT ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BUT WIND SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TO MOVE WEST INTO
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. SO WILL KEEP VCSH
IN FOR ALL OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR TONIGHT. FOR KAPF TAF
SITE...THE THREAT OF SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AFTER 03Z
TONIGHT.
THE SHOWER THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES TUESDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH EASTERLY WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. AS THE HEATING
OF THE DAY GETS GOING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. SO AFTER 17Z ON TUESDAY ALL OF THE TAF SITES IN SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL HAVE VCTS. THE WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN EASTERLY AT 10
TO 15 KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT MOST OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA TAF
SITES...EXCEPT FOR KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THEY WINDS WILL BECOME
WESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 17Z.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWERS FOR
TONIGHT AND THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION IS AT KFLL TAF SITE WHERE THEY COULD FALL INTO THE MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z...DUE TO KFLL SEE CURRENTLY BKN015
FROM A SHOWER NEAR BY.
&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW GETTING CUT OFF OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH HAS CAUSED THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED FROM -6.7 CELSIUS FROM
LAST EVENING TO -7.5 THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES STRETCHING INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS
ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH PWAT GOING UP TO 1.66 INCHES THIS
MORNING WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD
GOING INTO THE LAST HALF OF MAY. EVEN THOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ALONG WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND FLOW ABOVE 10K IS FROM THE WEST. THUS, WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGING VERY LITTLE THE NEXT 48 HOURS THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE LOW OVER THE PENINSULA
GETS PHASED IN WITH THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL ALSO
FORCE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND THEN
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW
DRYING TREND. THERE WILL BE HOWEVER ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LOW CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
AVIATION...
QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF US FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING WHILE
MOVING IN ALL DIRECTIONS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS REMAINING
WEST OF THE TERMINALS...A FEW COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH...THEREFORE
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THESE
TERMINALS...WITH STRONG GUSTS EXPECTED AS STORMS APPROACH. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO VCSH WAS KEPT AT ALL
EASTERN TERMINALS.
FOR KAPF...SEA BREEZE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND...AND
PREVAILING UNTIL 18-01Z. AFTER THAT...EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
WITH NO OTHER CONCERNS.
MARINE...
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 84 74 84 / 20 60 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 85 75 85 / 20 50 40 40
MIAMI 74 86 74 86 / 20 50 30 40
NAPLES 70 86 70 85 / 20 40 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...54/BNB
000
FXUS62 KMFL 201837
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
237 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
A SOUTHERN STREAM MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT MOVED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES THE PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW GETTING CUT OFF OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AS A STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTS OFF OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE LOW OVER FLORIDA WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHICH HAS CAUSED THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE AS 500 MB TEMPERATURES HAVE COOLED FROM -6.7 CELSIUS FROM
LAST EVENING TO -7.5 THIS MORNING. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ALSO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FROM THE SOUTHEAST
STATES STRETCHING INTO THE ATLANTIC. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE HAS
ALSO BEEN ON THE INCREASE WITH PWAT GOING UP TO 1.66 INCHES THIS
MORNING WHICH IS CLOSE TO AVERAGE FOR THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD
GOING INTO THE LAST HALF OF MAY. EVEN THOUGH OVERALL MOISTURE IS
NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE, THE MAIN ISSUE IS THE COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT ALONG WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FROM
THE SOUTHEAST AND FLOW ABOVE 10K IS FROM THE WEST. THUS, WITH THE
PATTERN CHANGING VERY LITTLE THE NEXT 48 HOURS THERE WILL BE A
CONTINUED CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL DEEPEN AND
SLOWLY DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE LOW OVER THE PENINSULA
GETS PHASED IN WITH THIS DEEPENING TROUGH AND LIFTS TO THE
NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL ALSO
FORCE A COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND THEN
MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH DOWN THE PENINSULA OVER THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW
DRYING TREND. THERE WILL BE HOWEVER ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LOW CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
QUITE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF US FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING WHILE
MOVING IN ALL DIRECTIONS. ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS REMAINING
WEST OF THE TERMINALS...A FEW COULD GET CLOSE ENOUGH...THEREFORE
AMENDMENTS ARE EXPECTED. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FOR THESE
TERMINALS...WITH STRONG GUSTS EXPECTED AS STORMS APPROACH. SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT...SO VCSH WAS KEPT AT ALL
EASTERN TERMINALS.
FOR KAPF...SEA BREEZE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND PUSHED INLAND...AND
PREVAILING UNTIL 18-01Z. AFTER THAT...EASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
WITH NO OTHER CONCERNS.
&&
.MARINE...
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND OF 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH SEAS GENERALLY LESS THAN 4 FEET.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
NO PROBLEMS OR CONCERNS WITH AMPLE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 72 84 74 84 / 40 60 40 50
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 85 75 85 / 40 50 40 40
MIAMI 74 86 74 86 / 40 50 30 40
NAPLES 70 86 70 85 / 30 40 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 201312
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
912 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER PALM
BEACH COUNTY, AS WELL AS TWEAKS TO OTHER ELEMENTS. THIS MORNINGS
SOUNDING DOES SHOW THE 500MB TEMP UP TO AROUND -8, WITH A WEAK
CAP. THIS SHOULD ERODE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, ALLOWING BETTER
DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE CELLS. SO, MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS THIS
MORNING, WITH POSSIBLY A FEW STRIKES OF LIGHTNING, ALTHOUGH HAVE
YET TO PICK UP ANY THIS MORNING. BUT, THEY CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE LATER TODAY AND SPREAD WESTWARD. THE HRRR IS
SHOWING THAT THE ACTIVITY MAY ACTUALLY BE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA, SO ANOTHER UPDATE MAY BE FORTH COMING LATER THIS
MORNING, IF THE MESOSCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS TREND OF
CONVECTION OCCURRING TO THE WEST, RATHER THAN THE EAST COAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013/
AVIATION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL
CHANCES UP TODAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK WEST AND MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ASHORE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING PERIOD AND VCTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS FOR
ALL SITES. PERIODS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND THIS ACTIVITY TODAY.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE EAST COASTAL AREAS UNDER WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW. HEADING INTO THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS
1.75 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK OVERALL STEERING FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE WITH CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES RANGING FROM -6C TO
-8C WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT A FAIRLY BROAD H5 SHORTWAVE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE EXTRA COOLING ALOFT NEEDED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA DEPICT 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
AVERAGE 500 MB TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS
COMBINED WILL AIDE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING GUSTY WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WITH
SUCH WEAK STEERING FLOW...SHOULD BE MAINLY OUTFLOW DRIVEN AND DRIFT
SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD PERSIST WITH THE LINGERING
SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
WARMER WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL CAPPING. STILL COULD NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE.
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE H5 SHORTWAVE
LINGERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
RETREAT EACH DAY ALLOWING HIGHER H5 HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA WHILE STILL REMAINING IN A FAIRLY WET PATTERN.
MARINE...
NO MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHILE REMAINING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 73 86 73 / 60 40 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 75 86 76 / 60 40 50 40
MIAMI 86 74 87 75 / 50 40 50 30
NAPLES 88 71 88 71 / 30 30 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...13/SI
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 201138
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
738 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.AVIATION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL
CHANCES UP TODAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK WEST AND MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ASHORE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. INCLUDED VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
MORNING PERIOD AND VCTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS FOR
ALL SITES. PERIODS WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN
AND AROUND THIS ACTIVITY TODAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013/
DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE EAST COASTAL AREAS UNDER WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW. HEADING INTO THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS
1.75 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK OVERALL STEERING FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE WITH CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES RANGING FROM -6C TO
-8C WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT A FAIRLY BROAD H5 SHORTWAVE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE EXTRA COOLING ALOFT NEEDED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA DEPICT 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
AVERAGE 500 MB TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS
COMBINED WILL AIDE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING GUSTY WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WITH
SUCH WEAK STEERING FLOW...SHOULD BE MAINLY OUTFLOW DRIVEN AND DRIFT
SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD PERSIST WITH THE LINGERING
SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
WARMER WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL CAPPING. STILL COULD NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE.
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE H5 SHORTWAVE
LINGERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
RETREAT EACH DAY ALLOWING HIGHER H5 HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA WHILE STILL REMAINING IN A FAIRLY WET PATTERN.
AVIATION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL
CHANCES UP TODAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK WEST AND MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ASHORE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WE WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD AND VCTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS FOR ALL SITES. PERIODS WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THIS ACTIVITY TODAY.
MARINE...
NO MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHILE REMAINING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS.
FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 73 86 73 / 50 40 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 75 86 76 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 86 74 87 75 / 50 40 50 30
NAPLES 88 71 88 71 / 30 30 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...13/SI
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 200805
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
357 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE EAST COASTAL AREAS UNDER WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW. HEADING INTO THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS
1.75 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK OVERALL STEERING FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE WITH CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES RANGING FROM -6C TO
-8C WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT A FAIRLY BROAD H5 SHORTWAVE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE EXTRA COOLING ALOFT NEEDED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA DEPICT 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
AVERAGE 500 MB TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS
COMBINED WILL AIDE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING GUSTY WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WITH
SUCH WEAK STEERING FLOW...SHOULD BE MAINLY OUTFLOW DRIVEN AND DRIFT
SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD PERSIST WITH THE LINGERING
SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
WARMER WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL CAPPING. STILL COULD NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE.
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE H5 SHORTWAVE
LINGERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
RETREAT EACH DAY ALLOWING HIGHER H5 HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA WHILE STILL REMAINING IN A FAIRLY WET PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL
CHANCES UP TODAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK WEST AND MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ASHORE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WE WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD AND VCTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS FOR ALL SITES. PERIODS WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THIS ACTIVITY TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHILE REMAINING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 73 86 73 / 50 40 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 75 86 76 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 86 74 87 75 / 50 40 50 30
NAPLES 88 71 88 71 / 30 30 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
000
FXUS62 KMFL 200757
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
357 AM EDT MON MAY 20 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY PUSH TOWARD THE EAST COASTAL AREAS UNDER WEAK EASTERLY
FLOW. HEADING INTO THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY THE FOCUS WILL
SHIFT TO POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. AS A RESULT...MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT PWAT VALUES AS HIGH AS
1.75 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK OVERALL STEERING FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED
FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE WITH CAPE
VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG AND LIFTED INDICES RANGING FROM -6C TO
-8C WITH LITTLE IF ANY CAPPING. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE ENOUGH TO
SPARK A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT A FAIRLY BROAD H5 SHORWAVE IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO SLIDE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH
WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
PROVIDE EXTRA COOLING ALOFT NEEDED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. POINT SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE AREA DEPICT 500 MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND -12C WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER THAN THE
AVERAGE 500 MB TEMPERATURE FOR THIS DATE. ALL OF THESE PARAMETERS
COMBINED WILL AIDE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING GUSTY WINDS...LARGE
HAIL...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AND WITH
SUCH WEAK STEERING FLOW...SHOULD BE MAINLY OUTFLOW DRIVEN AND DRIFT
SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
KEPT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AS MID LEVEL DYNAMICS SHOULD PERSIST WITH THE LINGERING
SHORTWAVE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT
WARMER WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER LOW LEVEL CAPPING. STILL COULD NOT RULE
OUT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND DEEP MOISTURE
STILL IN PLACE.
AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE H5 SHORTWAVE
LINGERS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. IT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
RETREAT EACH DAY ALLOWING HIGHER H5 HEIGHTS TO SLOWLY BUILD INTO THE
AREA WHILE STILL REMAINING IN A FAIRLY WET PATTERN.
&&
.AVIATION...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...DAYTIME
HEATING AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP THE RAINFALL
CHANCES UP TODAY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIODS. ADDITIONALLY...A FEW SHOWERS THAT ARE
CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK WEST AND MAY BEGIN TO SPREAD ASHORE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AROUND AND AFTER DAYBREAK. FOR NOW...WE WILL INCLUDE VCSH FOR
THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING PERIOD AND VCTS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS FOR ALL SITES. PERIODS WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND THIS ACTIVITY TODAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
AFFECT THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHILE REMAINING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT ACROSS ALL LOCAL WATERS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
LEVELS WELL ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 86 73 86 73 / 50 40 60 40
FORT LAUDERDALE 85 75 86 76 / 50 40 50 40
MIAMI 86 74 87 75 / 50 40 50 30
NAPLES 88 71 88 71 / 30 30 40 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...10/CD
AVIATION/RADAR...85/AG
000
FXUS62 KMFL 200059
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
859 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
...ISOLATED STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON`S...
.UPDATE...CLIMATOLOGY SHOWS THAT THE PEAK IN SEVERE TSTORM
OCCURRENCES ACROSS THE NWS MIAMI AREA IS THE SECOND HALF OF MAY
AND JUNE. WE`VE HAD A FEW STRONG TSTORMS THE PAST COUPLE OF
AFTERNOON`S, AND PARAMETERS TOMORROW AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON SUGGEST
MORE INTENSE TSTORM POTENTIAL AS A SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHEAST AND
OVER THE AREA. GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS LIKELY WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONG STORMS TO DEVELOP, WITH EVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE TSTORMS. STRONG WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT,
BUT IT`S LOOKING LIKE THE FAVORED AREAS WILL BE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVERS, SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS RESULTING IN ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS WELL. UPDATED
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS POTENTIAL. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
AVIATION...
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED WELL INLAND, SO REMOVED SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. VCTS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 01Z FOR THE NAPLES AREA. FOR MONDAY, GREATER
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
UPDATE...SHORT TERM UPDATE - ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED WELL
INLAND, SO REMOVED SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. IN FACT, SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE FT. LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI
METRO AREA. UPDATED SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. INCREASED POPS A TAD
FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ALONG THE
GULF SEA BREEZE. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, TYPICAL OF A SUMMER TIME LIKE PATTERN WITH
CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SEA/LAKE BREEZE AND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS S/W OFF THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE COAST ALBEIT WEAKENING
YET ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
GLOBAL AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW TO VARYING DEGREES S/W FARTHER
UP STREAM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. THAT COMBINED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL BASED INSTABILITY,
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS HOVERING AROUND NORMAL JUSTIFY
CALLING FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN AS REFLECTED IN THE MODEL
OUTPUT STATISTICS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SNDGS SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVELS WITH
S/W OVER NEXT TWO DAYS FURTHER ENHANCING THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION
WITH EVEN A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM A
CONSENSUS OF FORECAST MODELS IS NEARLY STATIONARY, THERE IS NO
CLEAR PATTERN OF CONVECTION FAVORING WEST VERSUS EAST COAST BUT
ALL MOS FAVOR EAST AND THAT IS LIKELY BECAUSE THAT IS THE AREA
MOST FAVORED BY UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH S/W
DROPPING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AFOREMENTIONED
S/W BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH MAIN THRUST FOR CONVECTION SHIFTING
EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES EAST COAST OF US THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO IS RATHER CONSISTENT WHEN LOOKING
AT RECENT MODEL TRENDS AND WHEN COMPARING LATEST GFS, ECMWF, AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. ALONG WITH THIS
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY PASSES AREA TO THE
NORTH.
MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK TURNING MORE
FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BY
THAT TIME TOO. BOTTOM LINE IS SURFACE WINDS AND/OR WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS PARTICULARLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 85 73 86 / 20 50 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 86 74 86 / 20 50 40 60
MIAMI 75 87 74 87 / 20 50 40 60
NAPLES 71 89 70 89 / 10 40 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KMFL 192334
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
734 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013
.AVIATION...
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED WELL INLAND, SO REMOVED SHOWER/TSTORM
CHANCES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS FOR THE REST OF TODAY. VCTS
POSSIBLE UNTIL 01Z FOR THE NAPLES AREA. FOR MONDAY, GREATER
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST WITH COLDER AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. VCTS POSSIBLE FOR ALL TERMINALS ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS MONDAY MORNING. MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
UPDATE...SHORT TERM UPDATE - ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED WELL
INLAND, SO REMOVED SHOWER/TSTORM CHANCES FOR THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS. IN FACT, SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER THE FT. LAUDERDALE AND MIAMI
METRO AREA. UPDATED SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. INCREASED POPS A TAD
FOR THE WESTERN INTERIOR WHERE CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST ALONG THE
GULF SEA BREEZE. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...LATEST SURFACE
ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, TYPICAL OF A SUMMER TIME LIKE PATTERN WITH
CONVECTION DRIVEN BY SEA/LAKE BREEZE AND OUTFLOW INTERACTIONS.
LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS S/W OFF THE COAST OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA CONTINUING TO DROP SOUTH ALONG THE COAST ALBEIT WEAKENING
YET ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THAT REGION. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS
GLOBAL AND SHORT RANGE MODELS SHOW TO VARYING DEGREES S/W FARTHER
UP STREAM DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE STATE. THAT COMBINED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED FEATURES, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL BASED INSTABILITY,
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS HOVERING AROUND NORMAL JUSTIFY
CALLING FOR HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN AS REFLECTED IN THE MODEL
OUTPUT STATISTICS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY, FORECAST SNDGS SHOW SLIGHTLY COOLER MID LEVELS WITH
S/W OVER NEXT TWO DAYS FURTHER ENHANCING THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION
WITH EVEN A FEW STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. GIVEN
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR AT THIS TIME THROUGH THE PERIOD FROM A
CONSENSUS OF FORECAST MODELS IS NEARLY STATIONARY, THERE IS NO
CLEAR PATTERN OF CONVECTION FAVORING WEST VERSUS EAST COAST BUT
ALL MOS FAVOR EAST AND THAT IS LIKELY BECAUSE THAT IS THE AREA
MOST FAVORED BY UPPER LEVEL SPLIT FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH S/W
DROPPING INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH.
LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...AFOREMENTIONED
S/W BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH MAIN THRUST FOR CONVECTION SHIFTING
EAST AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES EAST COAST OF US THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO IS RATHER CONSISTENT WHEN LOOKING
AT RECENT MODEL TRENDS AND WHEN COMPARING LATEST GFS, ECMWF, AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGHOUT THE NEXT 5 TO 7 DAYS. ALONG WITH THIS
SURFACE HIGH WEAKENS AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY PASSES AREA TO THE
NORTH.
MARINE... LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY HALF OF THE WEEK TURNING MORE
FROM THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE GULF WATERS BY LATE IN THE WEEK AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS BY
THAT TIME TOO. BOTTOM LINE IS SURFACE WINDS AND/OR WAVE HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN BELOW EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS
AFFECTING THE LOCAL WATERS PARTICULARLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 73 85 73 86 / 10 50 40 60
FORT LAUDERDALE 75 86 74 86 / 10 50 40 60
MIAMI 75 87 74 87 / 10 50 40 60
NAPLES 71 89 70 89 / 30 40 30 40
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/DG
AVIATION/RADAR...71/JE
| 
