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000
FXUS62 KMFL 210103
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
903 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY A COUPLE OF SMALL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EVERGLADES LEFT
OVER FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION. ONCE THESE DISSIPATE IN THE
NEXT HOUR, EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT AS THE 00Z MIAMI SOUNDING
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL DRYING COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THIS
EVENING`S SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS DEEPER NE-E WIND FLOW, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO THE RETURN OF THE TYPICAL EAST FLOW PATTERN OF
NIGHT/MORNING PRECIP ALONG EAST COAST AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS
COULD MAKE IT TO THE SE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT SO LEFT IN 20
PERCENT POPS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST COAST. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFF INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO, WITH LITTLE IF ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR THE EAST COAST NEAR
DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN TAFS. FOR THURSDAY,
EAST FLOW EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER/DEEPER WHICH WOULD
FAVOR A FEW SHOWERS EAST COAST IN THE MORNING/MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE VCSH
FOR EAST COAST, WITH PROB30 FOR KAPF AFTER 18Z WITH EXPECTED
STORMS IN THAT AREA. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA AT THIS TIME WITH BLENDED SSMI/AMSU/GPSMET WATER VAPOR
PRODUCT SHOWING PWAT VALUES AROUND NORMAL. THIS COMBINED WITH SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND THERMODYNAMIC INDICES BETTER THAN LAST
FEW DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
MIAMI DADE AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR AND PORTIONS OF
THE WEST COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LIDAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER PAST FEW DAYS
HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE CONFINED NOW CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS WILL
BE GRADUALLY LESS HAZY SKIES OVER THE NEAR FEW DAYS.

SHORT TERM...
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE SE. WITH THAT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FAVORING INLAND AND WEST COAST RAIN CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST
TOMORROW THAN FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 20-30% BELOW NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MOVES INTO THE AREA AS RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH.

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY PATTERN FAVORING INLAND AND WEST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ALL
EYES ARE IN THE TROPICS. AT THIS TIME THE UNCERTAINTY IS JUST TOO
LARGE. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN TERMS OF DEGREE OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT, WHERE IT WILL GO AND TIMING. SO AT THIS TIME
SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS ARE JUST ADVISED TO STAY TUNED OVER THE
WEEKEND. NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN CHECKING
OUR PREPAREDNESS PLANS. AFTER ALL, WE ARE HEADING INTO THE PEAK OF
THE HURRICANE SEASON.

MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  79  90 /  10  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  83  91 /  10  30  10  20
MIAMI            80  92  80  91 /  10  40  10  20
NAPLES           74  95  77  94 /  10  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 210103
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
903 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY A COUPLE OF SMALL THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EVERGLADES LEFT
OVER FROM THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTION. ONCE THESE DISSIPATE IN THE
NEXT HOUR, EXPECT A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT AS THE 00Z MIAMI SOUNDING
SHOWS SOME SLIGHT MID-LEVEL DRYING COMPARED TO THIS MORNING. THIS
EVENING`S SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS DEEPER NE-E WIND FLOW, WHICH WILL
LEAD TO THE RETURN OF THE TYPICAL EAST FLOW PATTERN OF
NIGHT/MORNING PRECIP ALONG EAST COAST AND AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS/STORMS INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. A FEW SHOWERS OR TSTMS
COULD MAKE IT TO THE SE COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT SO LEFT IN 20
PERCENT POPS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE
IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST COAST. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFF INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO, WITH LITTLE IF ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR THE EAST COAST NEAR
DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN TAFS. FOR THURSDAY,
EAST FLOW EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER/DEEPER WHICH WOULD
FAVOR A FEW SHOWERS EAST COAST IN THE MORNING/MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE VCSH
FOR EAST COAST, WITH PROB30 FOR KAPF AFTER 18Z WITH EXPECTED
STORMS IN THAT AREA. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA AT THIS TIME WITH BLENDED SSMI/AMSU/GPSMET WATER VAPOR
PRODUCT SHOWING PWAT VALUES AROUND NORMAL. THIS COMBINED WITH SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND THERMODYNAMIC INDICES BETTER THAN LAST
FEW DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
MIAMI DADE AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR AND PORTIONS OF
THE WEST COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LIDAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER PAST FEW DAYS
HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE CONFINED NOW CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS WILL
BE GRADUALLY LESS HAZY SKIES OVER THE NEAR FEW DAYS.

SHORT TERM...
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE SE. WITH THAT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FAVORING INLAND AND WEST COAST RAIN CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST
TOMORROW THAN FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 20-30% BELOW NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MOVES INTO THE AREA AS RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH.

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY PATTERN FAVORING INLAND AND WEST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ALL
EYES ARE IN THE TROPICS. AT THIS TIME THE UNCERTAINTY IS JUST TOO
LARGE. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN TERMS OF DEGREE OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT, WHERE IT WILL GO AND TIMING. SO AT THIS TIME
SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS ARE JUST ADVISED TO STAY TUNED OVER THE
WEEKEND. NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN CHECKING
OUR PREPAREDNESS PLANS. AFTER ALL, WE ARE HEADING INTO THE PEAK OF
THE HURRICANE SEASON.

MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  79  90 /  10  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  83  91 /  10  30  10  20
MIAMI            80  92  80  91 /  10  40  10  20
NAPLES           74  95  77  94 /  10  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 202325
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
725 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFF INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO, WITH LITTLE IF ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR THE EAST COAST NEAR
DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN TAFS. FOR THURSDAY,
EAST FLOW EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER/DEEPER WHICH WOULD
FAVOR A FEW SHOWERS EAST COAST IN THE MORNING/MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE VCSH
FOR EAST COAST, WITH PROB30 FOR KAPF AFTER 18Z WITH EXPECTED
STORMS IN THAT AREA. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA AT THIS TIME WITH BLENDED SSMI/AMSU/GPSMET WATER VAPOR
PRODUCT SHOWING PWAT VALUES AROUND NORMAL. THIS COMBINED WITH SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND THERMODYNAMIC INDICES BETTER THAN LAST
FEW DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
MIAMI DADE AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR AND PORTIONS OF
THE WEST COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LIDAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER PAST FEW DAYS
HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE CONFINED NOW CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS WILL
BE GRADUALLY LESS HAZY SKIES OVER THE NEAR FEW DAYS.

SHORT TERM...
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE SE. WITH THAT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FAVORING INLAND AND WEST COAST RAIN CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST
TOMORROW THAN FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 20-30% BELOW NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MOVES INTO THE AREA AS RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH.

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY PATTERN FAVORING INLAND AND WEST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ALL
EYES ARE IN THE TROPICS. AT THIS TIME THE UNCERTAINTY IS JUST TOO
LARGE. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN TERMS OF DEGREE OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT, WHERE IT WILL GO AND TIMING. SO AT THIS TIME
SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS ARE JUST ADVISED TO STAY TUNED OVER THE
WEEKEND. NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN CHECKING
OUR PREPAREDNESS PLANS. AFTER ALL, WE ARE HEADING INTO THE PEAK OF
THE HURRICANE SEASON.

MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  79  90 /  10  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  83  91 /  10  30  10  20
MIAMI            80  92  80  91 /  10  40  10  20
NAPLES           78  95  77  94 /  20  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 202325
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
725 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EITHER DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFF INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO, WITH LITTLE IF ANY FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT DOMINATED BY LAND BREEZES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY FORM NEAR THE EAST COAST NEAR
DAYBREAK THURSDAY, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO PUT IN TAFS. FOR THURSDAY,
EAST FLOW EXPECTED TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER/DEEPER WHICH WOULD
FAVOR A FEW SHOWERS EAST COAST IN THE MORNING/MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. THEREFORE ONLY HAVE VCSH
FOR EAST COAST, WITH PROB30 FOR KAPF AFTER 18Z WITH EXPECTED
STORMS IN THAT AREA. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA AT THIS TIME WITH BLENDED SSMI/AMSU/GPSMET WATER VAPOR
PRODUCT SHOWING PWAT VALUES AROUND NORMAL. THIS COMBINED WITH SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND THERMODYNAMIC INDICES BETTER THAN LAST
FEW DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
MIAMI DADE AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR AND PORTIONS OF
THE WEST COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LIDAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER PAST FEW DAYS
HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE CONFINED NOW CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS WILL
BE GRADUALLY LESS HAZY SKIES OVER THE NEAR FEW DAYS.

SHORT TERM...
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE SE. WITH THAT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FAVORING INLAND AND WEST COAST RAIN CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST
TOMORROW THAN FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 20-30% BELOW NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MOVES INTO THE AREA AS RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH.

LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY PATTERN FAVORING INLAND AND WEST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ALL
EYES ARE IN THE TROPICS. AT THIS TIME THE UNCERTAINTY IS JUST TOO
LARGE. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN TERMS OF DEGREE OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT, WHERE IT WILL GO AND TIMING. SO AT THIS TIME
SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS ARE JUST ADVISED TO STAY TUNED OVER THE
WEEKEND. NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN CHECKING
OUR PREPAREDNESS PLANS. AFTER ALL, WE ARE HEADING INTO THE PEAK OF
THE HURRICANE SEASON.

MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  79  90 /  10  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  83  91 /  10  30  10  20
MIAMI            80  92  80  91 /  10  40  10  20
NAPLES           78  95  77  94 /  20  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 201946
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
346 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA AT THIS TIME WITH BLENDED SSMI/AMSU/GPSMET WATER VAPOR
PRODUCT SHOWING PWAT VALUES AROUND NORMAL. THIS COMBINED WITH SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND THERMODYNAMIC INDICES BETTER THAN LAST
FEW DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
MIAMI DADE AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR AND PORTIONS OF
THE WEST COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LIDAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER PAST FEW DAYS
HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE CONFINED NOW CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS WILL
BE GRADUALLY LESS HAZY SKIES OVER THE NEAR FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE SE. WITH THAT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FAVORING INLAND AND WEST COAST RAIN CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST
TOMORROW THAN FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 20-30% BELOW NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MOVES INTO THE AREA AS RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY PATTERN FAVORING INLAND AND WEST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ALL
EYES ARE IN THE TROPICS. AT THIS TIME THE UNCERTAINTY IS JUST TOO
LARGE. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN TERMS OF DEGREE OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT, WHERE IT WILL GO AND TIMING. SO AT THIS TIME
SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS ARE JUST ADVISED TO STAY TUNED OVER THE
WEEKEND. NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN CHECKING
OUR PREPAREDNESS PLANS. AFTER ALL, WE ARE HEADING INTO THE PEAK OF
THE HURRICANE SEASON.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  79  90 /  10  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  83  91 /  10  30  10  20
MIAMI            80  92  80  91 /  10  40  10  20
NAPLES           78  95  77  94 /  20  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 201946
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
346 PM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOW DEEP LAYER RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA AT THIS TIME WITH BLENDED SSMI/AMSU/GPSMET WATER VAPOR
PRODUCT SHOWING PWAT VALUES AROUND NORMAL. THIS COMBINED WITH SEA
BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND THERMODYNAMIC INDICES BETTER THAN LAST
FEW DAYS HAVE RESULTED IN SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA WITH A COUPLE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WESTERN SUBURBS OF
MIAMI DADE AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL FORECAST FOR THE INTERIOR AND PORTIONS OF
THE WEST COAST THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

LIDAR OBSERVATIONS FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI INDICATE THE
SAHARAN AIR LAYER (SAL) THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE OVER PAST FEW DAYS
HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE CONFINED NOW CLOSER TO THE SURFACE AND
WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAIN IMPACT WITH THIS WILL
BE GRADUALLY LESS HAZY SKIES OVER THE NEAR FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
TOMORROW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF
SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE THAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS DEEP
LAYER RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTH AS A STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH BUILDS
ACROSS THE SE. WITH THAT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FAVORING INLAND AND WEST COAST RAIN CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE BEST
TOMORROW THAN FRIDAY AS DRIER AIR MASS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF AS MUCH AS 20-30% BELOW NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MOVES INTO THE AREA AS RIDGE BUILDS TO OUR NORTH.

.LONG TERM...
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
FRIDAY PATTERN FAVORING INLAND AND WEST COAST IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL EXTEND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO OUR NORTH. FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK ALL
EYES ARE IN THE TROPICS. AT THIS TIME THE UNCERTAINTY IS JUST TOO
LARGE. GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN TERMS OF DEGREE OF
STORM DEVELOPMENT, WHERE IT WILL GO AND TIMING. SO AT THIS TIME
SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS ARE JUST ADVISED TO STAY TUNED OVER THE
WEEKEND. NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT AT THIS TIME OTHER THAN CHECKING
OUR PREPAREDNESS PLANS. AFTER ALL, WE ARE HEADING INTO THE PEAK OF
THE HURRICANE SEASON.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW WAVES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NO
HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  79  90 /  10  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  83  91 /  10  30  10  20
MIAMI            80  92  80  91 /  10  40  10  20
NAPLES           78  95  77  94 /  20  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....52/PS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 201431
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1031 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE JUMPED UP TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY WITH
MAGNITUDE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (-6.4 C/KM) AND H5 TEMPS
(-7.5 C) SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND SFC BASED CAPE AROUND 4500
J/KG. STORM MOTION VECTOR FOR THE DAY IS FROM THE EAST AT LESS
THAN 3 KNOTS. BASICALLY STORMS WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT LIKELY DOMINATED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. ALL IN ALL, THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR THE DAY INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY WITH INLAND
STORMS. SO WILL AMEND HWO ACCORDINGLY. ENSEMBLE OF HIGH RES MODELS
AND HRRR ALSO INDICATE THAT BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
REMAIN FOR THE INTERIOR SOUTH WITH HIGH CHANCES SPREADING TOWARDS
THE WEST COAST AND LOWER CHANCES SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS PARTICULARLY
STARTING AROUND 2 PM AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE LATEST MODEL RUN
SHOWED ISLTD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AROUND 16-17Z JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE ORIENTED OUT OF
THE ENE. WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST SITES TO CORRESPOND
WITH THIS TIMING FOR NOW AND UPDATE AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE TODAY.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AND SETUP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
AND SHIFT TO OFFSHORE ALONG EACH COAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SOUTH FLORIDA IS UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE 00Z AUG 20
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTH
FLORIDA SINCE THE WEEKEND IS ERODING BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB (OR 3-4
KM ABOVE THE SURFACE). THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE LIDAR LOCATED
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI. THE LIDAR ALSO SHOWS THAT THE SAHARAN
LAYER IS BEING ERODED FROM BELOW. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST, AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC (BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT) WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOURCE OF CLEANER AIR. THE LOW
LEVEL VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE CIMMS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
BAHAMAS MOVING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND THE
DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE SATURDAY. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THIS INCREASE IN PW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PW DECREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SE
US.

THE FLOW OF EASTERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR LOWER POPS FOR THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
THE WEEKEND SEEMS TO BE THE DRIEST PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR FROM THE
ATLANTIC AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CHANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE PRESENT TIME IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT IF
A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
LEAST WE CAN BE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE IS FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES. THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INCLUDES A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MARINE... WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 126 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...

WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WHICH WILL
FAVOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR. AT THE
PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT INCLUDING VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS SINCE THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. HOWEVER, INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 15Z EXCEPT PBI. APF HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION,
AS THE EASTERLY FLOW FAVORS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR, AND SOMETIMES IT COULD AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  91  78 /  30  10  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  81  91  80 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  91  80 /  30  10  30  10
NAPLES           91  78  92  78 /  50  10  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....52/PS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 201431
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1031 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHES ACROSS THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE JUMPED UP TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY WITH
MAGNITUDE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES (-6.4 C/KM) AND H5 TEMPS
(-7.5 C) SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AND SFC BASED CAPE AROUND 4500
J/KG. STORM MOTION VECTOR FOR THE DAY IS FROM THE EAST AT LESS
THAN 3 KNOTS. BASICALLY STORMS WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT LIKELY DOMINATED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. LIMITING FACTOR REMAINS UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES. ALL IN ALL, THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR THE DAY INDICATE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL PARTICULARLY WITH INLAND
STORMS. SO WILL AMEND HWO ACCORDINGLY. ENSEMBLE OF HIGH RES MODELS
AND HRRR ALSO INDICATE THAT BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY
REMAIN FOR THE INTERIOR SOUTH WITH HIGH CHANCES SPREADING TOWARDS
THE WEST COAST AND LOWER CHANCES SPREADING AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN SUBURBS OF THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS PARTICULARLY
STARTING AROUND 2 PM AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE LATEST MODEL RUN
SHOWED ISLTD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AROUND 16-17Z JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE ORIENTED OUT OF
THE ENE. WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST SITES TO CORRESPOND
WITH THIS TIMING FOR NOW AND UPDATE AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE TODAY.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AND SETUP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
AND SHIFT TO OFFSHORE ALONG EACH COAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SOUTH FLORIDA IS UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE 00Z AUG 20
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTH
FLORIDA SINCE THE WEEKEND IS ERODING BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB (OR 3-4
KM ABOVE THE SURFACE). THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE LIDAR LOCATED
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI. THE LIDAR ALSO SHOWS THAT THE SAHARAN
LAYER IS BEING ERODED FROM BELOW. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST, AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC (BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT) WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOURCE OF CLEANER AIR. THE LOW
LEVEL VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE CIMMS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
BAHAMAS MOVING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND THE
DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE SATURDAY. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THIS INCREASE IN PW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PW DECREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SE
US.

THE FLOW OF EASTERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR LOWER POPS FOR THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
THE WEEKEND SEEMS TO BE THE DRIEST PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR FROM THE
ATLANTIC AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CHANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE PRESENT TIME IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT IF
A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
LEAST WE CAN BE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE IS FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES. THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INCLUDES A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MARINE... WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 126 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...

WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WHICH WILL
FAVOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR. AT THE
PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT INCLUDING VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS SINCE THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. HOWEVER, INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 15Z EXCEPT PBI. APF HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION,
AS THE EASTERLY FLOW FAVORS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR, AND SOMETIMES IT COULD AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  91  78 /  30  10  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  81  91  80 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  91  80 /  30  10  30  10
NAPLES           91  78  92  78 /  50  10  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 201135
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
735 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE LATEST MODEL RUN
SHOWED ISLTD/SCT SHRAS/TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARY AROUND 16-17Z JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW PROJECTED TO BE MORE ORIENTED OUT OF
THE ENE. WILL INCLUDE VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST SITES TO CORRESPOND
WITH THIS TIMING FOR NOW AND UPDATE AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE TODAY.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE INLAND THROUGH THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON AND SETUP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM
AND SHIFT TO OFFSHORE ALONG EACH COAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SOUTH FLORIDA IS UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE 00Z AUG 20
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTH
FLORIDA SINCE THE WEEKEND IS ERODING BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB (OR 3-4
KM ABOVE THE SURFACE). THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE LIDAR LOCATED
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI. THE LIDAR ALSO SHOWS THAT THE SAHARAN
LAYER IS BEING ERODED FROM BELOW. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST, AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC (BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT) WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOURCE OF CLEANER AIR. THE LOW
LEVEL VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE CIMMS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
BAHAMAS MOVING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND THE
DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE SATURDAY. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THIS INCREASE IN PW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PW DECREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SE
US.

THE FLOW OF EASTERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR LOWER POPS FOR THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
THE WEEKEND SEEMS TO BE THE DRIEST PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR FROM THE
ATLANTIC AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CHANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE PRESENT TIME IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT IF
A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
LEAST WE CAN BE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE IS FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES. THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INCLUDES A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

MARINE... WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 126 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...

WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WHICH WILL
FAVOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR. AT THE
PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT INCLUDING VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS SINCE THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. HOWEVER, INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 15Z EXCEPT PBI. APF HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION,
AS THE EASTERLY FLOW FAVORS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR, AND SOMETIMES IT COULD AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  91  78 /  40  10  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  81  91  80 /  30  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  91  80 /  30  10  30  10
NAPLES           91  78  92  78 /  40  10  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 200638
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTH FLORIDA IS UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE 00Z AUG 20
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTH
FLORIDA SINCE THE WEEKEND IS ERODING BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB (OR 3-4
KM ABOVE THE SURFACE). THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE LIDAR LOCATED
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI. THE LIDAR ALSO SHOWS THAT THE SAHARAN
LAYER IS BEING ERODED FROM BELOW. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST, AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC (BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT) WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOURCE OF CLEANER AIR. THE LOW
LEVEL VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE CIMMS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
BAHAMAS MOVING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND THE
DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE SATURDAY. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THIS INCREASE IN PW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PW DECREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SE
US.

THE FLOW OF EASTERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR LOWER POPS FOR THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
THE WEEKEND SEEMS TO BE THE DRIEST PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR FROM THE
ATLANTIC AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CHANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE PRESENT TIME IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT IF
A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
LEAST WE CAN BE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE IS FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES. THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INCLUDES A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

.MARINE... WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 126 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...

WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WHICH WILL
FAVOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR. AT THE
PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT INCLUDING VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS SINCE THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. HOWEVER, INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 15Z EXCEPT PBI. APF HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION,
AS THE EASTERLY FLOW FAVORS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR, AND SOMETIMES IT COULD AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  91  78 /  40  10  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  81  91  80 /  30  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  91  80 /  30  10  30  10
NAPLES           91  78  92  78 /  40  10  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE





000
FXUS62 KMFL 200638
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SOUTH FLORIDA IS UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN US. THE 00Z AUG 20
SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTH
FLORIDA SINCE THE WEEKEND IS ERODING BETWEEN 600 AND 700 MB (OR 3-4
KM ABOVE THE SURFACE). THIS IS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE LIDAR LOCATED
AT THE UNIVERSITY OF MIAMI. THE LIDAR ALSO SHOWS THAT THE SAHARAN
LAYER IS BEING ERODED FROM BELOW. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST, AN INFLUX OF ATLANTIC AIR ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE ATLANTIC (BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT) WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A SOURCE OF CLEANER AIR. THE LOW
LEVEL VISIBILITY WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.

THE CIMMS WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE
BAHAMAS MOVING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR WEDNESDAY EVENING BEHIND THE
DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA SINCE SATURDAY. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW THIS INCREASE IN PW FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE PW DECREASE AGAIN ON THURSDAY DUE TO THE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SE
US.

THE FLOW OF EASTERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR LOWER POPS FOR THE IMMEDIATE EAST
COAST WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES.
THE WEEKEND SEEMS TO BE THE DRIEST PERIOD WITH DRIER AIR FROM THE
ATLANTIC AFFECTING SOUTH FLORIDA. CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
CHANGE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA. AT THE PRESENT TIME IT IS NOT POSSIBLE TO PREDICT IF
A TROPICAL SYSTEM COULD AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK, BUT AT
LEAST WE CAN BE SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT THAT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE
AND LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM THE SE IS FORECAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WAVES. THE CURRENT FORECAST FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER INCLUDES A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR
DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

&&

.MARINE... WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR
LESS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 126 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014/

AVIATION...

WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WHICH WILL
FAVOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR. AT THE
PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT INCLUDING VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS SINCE THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. HOWEVER, INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 15Z EXCEPT PBI. APF HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION,
AS THE EASTERLY FLOW FAVORS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR, AND SOMETIMES IT COULD AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  78  91  78 /  40  10  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  81  91  80 /  30  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  91  80 /  30  10  30  10
NAPLES           91  78  92  78 /  40  10  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 200526
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
126 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WHICH WILL
FAVOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR. AT THE
PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT INCLUDING VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS SINCE THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. HOWEVER, INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 15Z EXCEPT PBI. APF HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION,
AS THE EASTERLY FLOW FAVORS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR, AND SOMETIMES IT COULD AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  79  91  79 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  81  92  81 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            92  80  92  80 /  20  10  30  10
NAPLES           93  78  93  77 /  30  20  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION...71/JE





000
FXUS62 KMFL 200526
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
126 AM EDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...

WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS WHICH WILL
FAVOR THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR. AT THE
PRESENT TIME WE ARE NOT INCLUDING VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS SINCE THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS. HOWEVER, INCLUDED VCSH FOR ALL TERMINALS
AFTER 15Z EXCEPT PBI. APF HAS THE GREATEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION,
AS THE EASTERLY FLOW FAVORS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE
INTERIOR, AND SOMETIMES IT COULD AFFECT THE NAPLES AREA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  79  91  79 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  81  92  81 /  20  10  30  10
MIAMI            92  80  92  80 /  20  10  30  10
NAPLES           93  78  93  77 /  30  20  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 200004
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
804 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...

THE SMALL COVERAGE OF STORMS TONIGHT ARE WEAKENING AND ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD AGAIN BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING FORECASTED SURFACE WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED. SINCE GOING FORECAST HAS ONLY SLT CHC POPS
OVER THE TERMINALS...WILL NOT BE INCLUDING VCTS FOR ANY LOCATIONS
FOR WED AT THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS HAVE SINCE COLLAPSED...WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN ITS NORTHWEST DRIFT ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE RIDGE
SPLITTING...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MAY
ACTUALLY IMPART A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COAST. SO ONLY HAVE 10-20
POPS FOR THE EAST COAST...WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH
NORTHWEST INTO LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY...WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE VALUES AND RAIN CHANCE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. `TIS THE SEASON...SO THIS IS A GOOD REMINDER TO HAVE A
HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE PEAK OF THE
HURRICANE SEASON.

AVIATION...
WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE STEADILY PUSHES INLAND. THE BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL SETUP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL NEAR CALM LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO
OFFSHORE. 85/AG

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  81  92 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            80  92  80  92 /  10  20  10  30
NAPLES           78  93  78  93 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 200004
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
804 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...

THE SMALL COVERAGE OF STORMS TONIGHT ARE WEAKENING AND ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS WITH LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.
TOMORROW...STORMS SHOULD AGAIN BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING FORECASTED SURFACE WIND
DIRECTION AND SPEED. SINCE GOING FORECAST HAS ONLY SLT CHC POPS
OVER THE TERMINALS...WILL NOT BE INCLUDING VCTS FOR ANY LOCATIONS
FOR WED AT THIS ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS HAVE SINCE COLLAPSED...WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN ITS NORTHWEST DRIFT ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE RIDGE
SPLITTING...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MAY
ACTUALLY IMPART A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COAST. SO ONLY HAVE 10-20
POPS FOR THE EAST COAST...WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH
NORTHWEST INTO LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY...WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE VALUES AND RAIN CHANCE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. `TIS THE SEASON...SO THIS IS A GOOD REMINDER TO HAVE A
HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE PEAK OF THE
HURRICANE SEASON.

AVIATION...
WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE STEADILY PUSHES INLAND. THE BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL SETUP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL NEAR CALM LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO
OFFSHORE. 85/AG

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  81  92 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            80  92  80  92 /  10  20  10  30
NAPLES           78  93  78  93 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191914
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
314 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS HAVE SINCE COLLAPSED...WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN ITS NORTHWEST DRIFT ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE RIDGE
SPLITTING...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MAY
ACTUALLY IMPART A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COAST. SO ONLY HAVE 10-20
POPS FOR THE EAST COAST...WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH
NORTHWEST INTO LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY...WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE VALUES AND RAIN CHANCE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. `TIS THE SEASON...SO THIS IS A GOOD REMINDER TO HAVE A
HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE PEAK OF THE
HURRICANE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE STEADILY PUSHES INLAND. THE BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL SETUP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL NEAR CALM LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO
OFFSHORE. 85/AG

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  81  92 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            80  92  80  92 /  10  20  10  30
NAPLES           78  93  78  93 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191914
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
314 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE STORMS HAVE SINCE COLLAPSED...WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PUSHING ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EVERGLADES.

THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL BEGIN ITS NORTHWEST DRIFT ON
WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THE RIDGE
SPLITTING...WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF
AND THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MAY
ACTUALLY IMPART A LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST AND NORTHEAST COAST. SO ONLY HAVE 10-20
POPS FOR THE EAST COAST...WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST.

THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH
NORTHWEST INTO LOUISIANA ON THURSDAY...WITH LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD NORTHWARD
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
MOISTURE VALUES AND RAIN CHANCE WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH
FRIDAY.

MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWEST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BEYOND THE FORECAST PERIOD...MODELS ARE HINTING AT POSSIBLE
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. `TIS THE SEASON...SO THIS IS A GOOD REMINDER TO HAVE A
HURRICANE PLAN IN PLACE AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE PEAK OF THE
HURRICANE SEASON.

&&

.AVIATION...
WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE STEADILY PUSHES INLAND. THE BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL SETUP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL NEAR CALM LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO
OFFSHORE. 85/AG

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  81  92 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            80  92  80  92 /  10  20  10  30
NAPLES           78  93  78  93 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191752
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
152 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...

WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE STEADILY PUSHES INLAND. THE BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL SETUP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL NEAR CALM LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO
OFFSHORE. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS...WITH 500MB TEMPS NEAR -8C. THE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
IS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THUS THERE WILL BE NO REAL STEERING
FLOW TODAY. DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE
REGION...AND THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE KEYS
AND FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
STORMS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW...WITH STORM MOTION
DETERMINED BY THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BUMPED UP
POPS SLIGHTLY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SIDE OF THE METRO AREAS...CLOSEST TO DEEPER MOISTURE. 700-500MB
LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED...AND WERE 6.6 C/KM THIS MORNING. SO
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS...POSSIBLY TO NEAR SEVERE LIMITS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM
DAY IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES 100-107F.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ASHORE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO NEAR
CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
ONSHORE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON PERIODS. THE BEST RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SETUP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP MOISTURE AXIS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE LATEST HRRR/ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS KEEP SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING. AEROSOL DISPERSION MODELS STILL
SHOW A THIN VEIL OF SAHARAN DUST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY
WHICH WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A MAINLY HOT AND HAZY DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MAINTAINED BY SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND THE ABSENCE OF THE SAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
AFTERNOON PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 1.8 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY ALLOWING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL
AREAS. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD PUSH BACK TO THE EAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON GENERATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS STILL DEPICT A BROAD H5 TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND DIGGING
SOUTHWARD. AS IT DOES...IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS
THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE MOISTURE SURGE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ESE AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN TAFS BUT DID
COVER WITH VCSH.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  90  78  91 /  10  20  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  91 /  10  20  20  30
MIAMI            79  91  79  91 /  10  30  20  30
NAPLES           79  91  79  92 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191752
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
152 PM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...

WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE STEADILY PUSHES INLAND. THE BEST
RAINFALL CHANCES WILL SETUP ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL NEAR CALM LEVELS OVERNIGHT AND SHIFT TO
OFFSHORE. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS...WITH 500MB TEMPS NEAR -8C. THE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
IS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THUS THERE WILL BE NO REAL STEERING
FLOW TODAY. DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE
REGION...AND THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE KEYS
AND FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
STORMS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW...WITH STORM MOTION
DETERMINED BY THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BUMPED UP
POPS SLIGHTLY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SIDE OF THE METRO AREAS...CLOSEST TO DEEPER MOISTURE. 700-500MB
LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED...AND WERE 6.6 C/KM THIS MORNING. SO
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS...POSSIBLY TO NEAR SEVERE LIMITS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM
DAY IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES 100-107F.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ASHORE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO NEAR
CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
ONSHORE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON PERIODS. THE BEST RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SETUP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP MOISTURE AXIS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE LATEST HRRR/ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS KEEP SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING. AEROSOL DISPERSION MODELS STILL
SHOW A THIN VEIL OF SAHARAN DUST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY
WHICH WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A MAINLY HOT AND HAZY DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MAINTAINED BY SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND THE ABSENCE OF THE SAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
AFTERNOON PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 1.8 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY ALLOWING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL
AREAS. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD PUSH BACK TO THE EAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON GENERATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS STILL DEPICT A BROAD H5 TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND DIGGING
SOUTHWARD. AS IT DOES...IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS
THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE MOISTURE SURGE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ESE AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN TAFS BUT DID
COVER WITH VCSH.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  90  78  91 /  10  20  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  91 /  10  20  20  30
MIAMI            79  91  79  91 /  10  30  20  30
NAPLES           79  91  79  92 /  10  30  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191436
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1036 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS...WITH 500MB TEMPS NEAR -8C. THE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
IS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THUS THERE WILL BE NO REAL STEERING
FLOW TODAY. DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE
REGION...AND THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE KEYS
AND FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
STORMS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW...WITH STORM MOTION
DETERMINED BY THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BUMPED UP
POPS SLIGHTLY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SIDE OF THE METRO AREAS...CLOSEST TO DEEPER MOISTURE. 700-500MB
LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED...AND WERE 6.6 C/KM THIS MORNING. SO
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS...POSSIBLY TO NEAR SEVERE LIMITS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM
DAY IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES 100-107F.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ASHORE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO NEAR
CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
ONSHORE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON PERIODS. THE BEST RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SETUP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP MOISTURE AXIS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE LATEST HRRR/ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS KEEP SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING. AEROSOL DISPERSION MODELS STILL
SHOW A THIN VEIL OF SAHARAN DUST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY
WHICH WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A MAINLY HOT AND HAZY DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MAINTAINED BY SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND THE ABSENCE OF THE SAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
AFTERNOON PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 1.8 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY ALLOWING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL
AREAS. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD PUSH BACK TO THE EAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON GENERATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS STILL DEPICT A BROAD H5 TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND DIGGING
SOUTHWARD. AS IT DOES...IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS
THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE MOISTURE SURGE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ESE AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN TAFS BUT DID
COVER WITH VCSH.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  20  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  79  91  79 /  30  10  30  20
NAPLES           91  79  91  79 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191436
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1036 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED COOLING IN THE MID
LEVELS...WITH 500MB TEMPS NEAR -8C. THE FLOW THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN
IS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...AND THUS THERE WILL BE NO REAL STEERING
FLOW TODAY. DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED OVER THE
REGION...AND THERE WAS STILL A LOT OF DRY AIR IN THE COLUMN.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE KEYS
AND FLORIDA STRAITS...AND THAT DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIFT INTO THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER...CANNOT RULE OUT
STORMS NEAR THE COAST DUE TO THE LIGHT FLOW...WITH STORM MOTION
DETERMINED BY THE SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. BUMPED UP
POPS SLIGHTLY...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN
SIDE OF THE METRO AREAS...CLOSEST TO DEEPER MOISTURE. 700-500MB
LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED...AND WERE 6.6 C/KM THIS MORNING. SO
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND
GUSTS...POSSIBLY TO NEAR SEVERE LIMITS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WARM
DAY IS IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AND HEAT INDICES 100-107F.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 644 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ASHORE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO NEAR
CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
ONSHORE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON PERIODS. THE BEST RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SETUP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP MOISTURE AXIS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE LATEST HRRR/ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS KEEP SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING. AEROSOL DISPERSION MODELS STILL
SHOW A THIN VEIL OF SAHARAN DUST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY
WHICH WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A MAINLY HOT AND HAZY DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MAINTAINED BY SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND THE ABSENCE OF THE SAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
AFTERNOON PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 1.8 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY ALLOWING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL
AREAS. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD PUSH BACK TO THE EAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON GENERATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS STILL DEPICT A BROAD H5 TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND DIGGING
SOUTHWARD. AS IT DOES...IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS
THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE MOISTURE SURGE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ESE AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN TAFS BUT DID
COVER WITH VCSH.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  20  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  79  91  79 /  30  10  30  20
NAPLES           91  79  91  79 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191044
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
644 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ASHORE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO NEAR
CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
ONSHORE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON PERIODS. THE BEST RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SETUP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP MOISTURE AXIS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE LATEST HRRR/ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS KEEP SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING. AEROSOL DISPERSION MODELS STILL
SHOW A THIN VEIL OF SAHARAN DUST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY
WHICH WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A MAINLY HOT AND HAZY DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MAINTAINED BY SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND THE ABSENCE OF THE SAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
AFTERNOON PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 1.8 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY ALLOWING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL
AREAS. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD PUSH BACK TO THE EAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON GENERATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS STILL DEPICT A BROAD H5 TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND DIGGING
SOUTHWARD. AS IT DOES...IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS
THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE MOISTURE SURGE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ESE AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN TAFS BUT DID
COVER WITH VCSH.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  10  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  79  91  79 /  20  10  30  20
NAPLES           91  79  91  79 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191044
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
644 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING ASHORE THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIGHT TO NEAR
CALM WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
ONSHORE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON PERIODS. THE BEST RAINFALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SETUP
ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING PERIOD. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP MOISTURE AXIS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE LATEST HRRR/ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS KEEP SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING. AEROSOL DISPERSION MODELS STILL
SHOW A THIN VEIL OF SAHARAN DUST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY
WHICH WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A MAINLY HOT AND HAZY DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MAINTAINED BY SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND THE ABSENCE OF THE SAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
AFTERNOON PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 1.8 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY ALLOWING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL
AREAS. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD PUSH BACK TO THE EAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON GENERATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS STILL DEPICT A BROAD H5 TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND DIGGING
SOUTHWARD. AS IT DOES...IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS
THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE MOISTURE SURGE.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ESE AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN TAFS BUT DID
COVER WITH VCSH.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  10  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  79  91  79 /  20  10  30  20
NAPLES           91  79  91  79 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190827
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
427 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP MOISTURE AXIS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE LATEST HRRR/ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS KEEP SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING. AEROSOL DISPERSION MODELS STILL
SHOW A THIN VEIL OF SAHARAN DUST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY
WHICH WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A MAINLY HOT AND HAZY DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MAINTAINED BY SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND THE ABSENCE OF THE SAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
AFTERNOON PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 1.8 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY ALLOWING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL
AREAS. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD PUSH BACK TO THE EAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON GENERATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS STILL DEPICT A BROAD H5 TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND DIGGING
SOUTHWARD. AS IT DOES...IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS
THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE MOISTURE SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ESE AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN TAFS BUT DID
COVER WITH VCSH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  10  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  79  91  79 /  20  10  30  20
NAPLES           91  79  91  79 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190827
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
427 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH TO THE NORTH ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS THIS
MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS THE RESULT OF A DEEP MOISTURE AXIS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND GENERALLY SOUTHERLY MID LEVEL FLOW.
THE LATEST HRRR/ARW/NMM SOLUTIONS KEEP SCATTERED ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING. AEROSOL DISPERSION MODELS STILL
SHOW A THIN VEIL OF SAHARAN DUST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH TODAY
WHICH WILL AGAIN RESULT IN A MAINLY HOT AND HAZY DAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND MAINTAINED BY SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS A RESULT OF THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND THE ABSENCE OF THE SAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT
AFTERNOON PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 1.8 INCHES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY EASTERLY ALLOWING THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY TO BE CONFINED ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL
AREAS. HOWEVER...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES COULD PUSH BACK TO THE EAST
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON GENERATING ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE EASTERLY FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. MODELS STILL DEPICT A BROAD H5 TROUGH PUSHING OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND DIGGING
SOUTHWARD. AS IT DOES...IT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH A DEEP MOISTURE
PLUME ALONG WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME THE ECMWF IS
THE MORE BULLISH SOLUTION WITH REGARD TO THE MOISTURE SURGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ESE AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN TAFS BUT DID
COVER WITH VCSH.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO
INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING
GENERALLY EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  10  10  20  20
MIAMI            92  79  91  79 /  20  10  30  20
NAPLES           91  79  91  79 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 190545
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ESE AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN TAFS BUT DID
COVER WITH VCSH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING OVER
THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...EXCEPT OVER GLADES COUNTY AND THE
GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

THE SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS BEEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY FOR TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES INCLUDING THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THUS FAR ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. THE HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD...WHILE THE REST OF
THE MOISTURE PIVOTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KEYS AND THEN INTO DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY MORNING. THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AND
SAHARAN DUST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BRINGING
SUBSIDENCE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION
WILL GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD BACK INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH
A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTHWEST
INTO LOUISIANA AND EXTEND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL THEN SETUP WITH A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SO
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL TO -7
TO -8C THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE LAKE REGION INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO DISSIPATE...AND
MOISTURE VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  91  78 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  92  80 /  20  10  20  20
MIAMI            93  79  92  79 /  30  10  20  20
NAPLES           93  79  93  79 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 190545
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN ESE AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AT AROUND 10 KNOTS
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM AFFECTING THE
TAF SITES. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PUT MENTION IN TAFS BUT DID
COVER WITH VCSH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OCCURRING OVER
THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...EXCEPT OVER GLADES COUNTY AND THE
GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST.

THE SAHARAN DUST THAT HAS BEEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY FOR TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES INCLUDING THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THUS FAR ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. THE HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD...WHILE THE REST OF
THE MOISTURE PIVOTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KEYS AND THEN INTO DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY MORNING. THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AND
SAHARAN DUST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BRINGING
SUBSIDENCE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION
WILL GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD BACK INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH
A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTHWEST
INTO LOUISIANA AND EXTEND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL THEN SETUP WITH A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SO
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL TO -7
TO -8C THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE LAKE REGION INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO DISSIPATE...AND
MOISTURE VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  91  78 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  80  92  80 /  20  10  20  20
MIAMI            93  79  92  79 /  30  10  20  20
NAPLES           93  79  93  79 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190030 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WAS OCCURRING OVER
THE INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON HAVE
MOSTLY DISSIPATED THIS EVENING...EXCEPT OVER GLADES COUNTY AND
THE GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE
DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THE DAY TIME HEATING IS LOST.

THE SAHARAN DUST THAT BEEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY WILL MOVE
WEST NORTHWEST AND AWAY FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SO WILL
KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY FOR TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT
FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES INCLUDING THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATED...54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SKY BECOMING
SKC AFT 01-02Z THIS EVENING. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH
COASTS AFT 16Z TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THESE WILL PUSH
INLAND WITH THE BOUNDARIES SO NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.

&&
KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THUS FAR ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. THE HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD...WHILE THE REST OF
THE MOISTURE PIVOTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KEYS AND THEN INTO DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY MORNING. THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AND
SAHARAN DUST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BRINGING
SUBSIDENCE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
.AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION
WILL GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD BACK INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH
A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTHWEST
INTO LOUISIANA AND EXTEND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL THEN SETUP WITH A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SO
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL TO -7
TO -8C THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE LAKE REGION INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO DISSIPATE...AND
MOISTURE VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN MORE
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. /AG

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  78  91 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  80  92 /  10  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  93  79  92 /  10  30  10  20
NAPLES           78  93  79  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 182344
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SKY BECOMING
SKC AFT 01-02Z THIS EVENING. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH
COASTS AFT 16Z TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THESE WILL PUSH
INLAND WITH THE BOUNDARIES SO NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THUS FAR ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. THE HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD...WHILE THE REST OF
THE MOISTURE PIVOTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KEYS AND THEN INTO DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY MORNING. THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AND
SAHARAN DUST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BRINGING
SUBSIDENCE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
..AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION
WILL GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD BACK INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH
A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTHWEST
INTO LOUISIANA AND EXTEND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL THEN SETUP WITH A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SO
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL TO -7
TO -8C THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE LAKE REGION INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO DISSIPATE...AND
MOISTURE VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN MORE
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. /AG

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  78  91 /   0  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  80  92 /  10  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  93  79  92 /  10  30  10  20
NAPLES           78  93  79  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 182344
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
744 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH SKY BECOMING
SKC AFT 01-02Z THIS EVENING. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG BOTH
COASTS AFT 16Z TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA. THESE WILL PUSH
INLAND WITH THE BOUNDARIES SO NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT ANY OF THE
TERMINALS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THUS FAR ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. THE HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD...WHILE THE REST OF
THE MOISTURE PIVOTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KEYS AND THEN INTO DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY MORNING. THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AND
SAHARAN DUST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BRINGING
SUBSIDENCE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
..AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION
WILL GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD BACK INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH
A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTHWEST
INTO LOUISIANA AND EXTEND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL THEN SETUP WITH A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SO
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL TO -7
TO -8C THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE LAKE REGION INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO DISSIPATE...AND
MOISTURE VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN MORE
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. /AG

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  78  91 /   0  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  80  92 /  10  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  93  79  92 /  10  30  10  20
NAPLES           78  93  79  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181839
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THUS FAR ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. THE HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD...WHILE THE REST OF
THE MOISTURE PIVOTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KEYS AND THEN INTO DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY MORNING. THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AND
SAHARAN DUST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BRINGING
SUBSIDENCE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
...AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION
WILL GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD BACK INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH
A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTHWEST
INTO LOUISIANA AND EXTEND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL THEN SETUP WITH A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SO
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL TO -7
TO -8C THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE LAKE REGION INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO DISSIPATE...AND
MOISTURE VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN MORE
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. /AG

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  78  91 /   0  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  80  92 /  10  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  93  79  92 /  10  30  10  20
NAPLES           78  93  79  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181839
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
239 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THUS FAR ALONG THE
GULF COAST SEA BREEZE. THE HOT AND HAZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE REGION. PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA STRAITS AND WESTERN CUBA. THE SOUTHERN
END OF THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY WESTWARD...WHILE THE REST OF
THE MOISTURE PIVOTS NORTHWARD INTO THE KEYS AND THEN INTO DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY MORNING. THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AND
SAHARAN DUST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...BRINGING
SUBSIDENCE AND WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT. HOWEVER...THE RETURN OF
DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZE
CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY WILL PUSH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
...AND THE DEEPER MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION
WILL GET PUSHED SOUTHWARD BACK INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH
A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL PUSH NORTHWEST
INTO LOUISIANA AND EXTEND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
COUNTRY. A BLOCKING PATTERN WILL THEN SETUP WITH A LARGE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF
THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SO
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY FALL AND MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL COOL TO -7
TO -8C THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST
TO BE FROM THE LAKE REGION INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED. THE SAHARAN DUST WILL ALSO DISSIPATE...AND
MOISTURE VALUES AND RAIN CHANCES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN MORE
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. /AG

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  78  91 /   0  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  80  92 /  10  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  93  79  92 /  10  30  10  20
NAPLES           78  93  79  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 181749
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
149 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN MORE
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED THE DRY AIR AND DUST THIS MORNING WITH AN
INVERSION AROUND 850MB. LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SO BROUGHT THE 20 POP CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST DUE TO THE LIGHTER FLOW. THE HIGH RES MODELS ALSO
SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE DOWNTOWN AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. ABOVE THE
INVERSION THERE WERE STEEP LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 700MB. SO ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND HAZY DAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
TURN ONSHORE ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
AND INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
EACH AFTERNOON. STRONG RIDGING WILL RESULT IN INTENSE HEAT WHICH
WILL BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK WITH READINGS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
110 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF
YEAR...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS DEPICT UPPER RIDGING BREAKING
DOWN SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD H5 SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DIGS SOUTHWARD...EVEN HINTING AT A
WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN FLORIDA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
EASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  78  91 /   0  10  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
MIAMI            79  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
NAPLES           79  90  79  92 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181749
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
149 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ONSHORE ALONG THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. FOR
TUESDAY...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN MORE
SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED THE DRY AIR AND DUST THIS MORNING WITH AN
INVERSION AROUND 850MB. LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SO BROUGHT THE 20 POP CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST DUE TO THE LIGHTER FLOW. THE HIGH RES MODELS ALSO
SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE DOWNTOWN AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. ABOVE THE
INVERSION THERE WERE STEEP LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 700MB. SO ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND HAZY DAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
TURN ONSHORE ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
AND INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
EACH AFTERNOON. STRONG RIDGING WILL RESULT IN INTENSE HEAT WHICH
WILL BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK WITH READINGS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
110 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF
YEAR...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS DEPICT UPPER RIDGING BREAKING
DOWN SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD H5 SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DIGS SOUTHWARD...EVEN HINTING AT A
WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN FLORIDA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
EASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  91  78  91 /   0  10  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
MIAMI            79  91  78  91 /  10  30  10  20
NAPLES           79  90  79  92 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 181402
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1002 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED THE DRY AIR AND DUST THIS MORNING WITH AN
INVERSION AROUND 850MB. LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SO BROUGHT THE 20 POP CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST DUE TO THE LIGHTER FLOW. THE HIGH RES MODELS ALSO
SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE DOWNTOWN AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. ABOVE THE
INVERSION THERE WERE STEEP LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 700MB. SO ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND HAZY DAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
TURN ONSHORE ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
AND INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
EACH AFTERNOON. STRONG RIDGING WILL RESULT IN INTENSE HEAT WHICH
WILL BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK WITH READINGS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
110 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF
YEAR...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS DEPICT UPPER RIDGING BREAKING
DOWN SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD H5 SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DIGS SOUTHWARD...EVEN HINTING AT A
WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN FLORIDA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
EASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  10   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  80  91  78 /  10  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  79  91  78 /  10  10  30  10
NAPLES           92  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 181402
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1002 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
THE 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED THE DRY AIR AND DUST THIS MORNING WITH AN
INVERSION AROUND 850MB. LIGHT FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. SO BROUGHT THE 20 POP CLOSER TO
THE EAST COAST DUE TO THE LIGHTER FLOW. THE HIGH RES MODELS ALSO
SHOW A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE JUST
TO THE WEST OF THE DOWNTOWN AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. ABOVE THE
INVERSION THERE WERE STEEP LAPSE RATES TO AROUND 700MB. SO ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE SOME STRONGER WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER HOT AND HAZY DAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
TURN ONSHORE ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
AND INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
EACH AFTERNOON. STRONG RIDGING WILL RESULT IN INTENSE HEAT WHICH
WILL BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK WITH READINGS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
110 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF
YEAR...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS DEPICT UPPER RIDGING BREAKING
DOWN SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD H5 SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DIGS SOUTHWARD...EVEN HINTING AT A
WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN FLORIDA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
EASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  10   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  80  91  78 /  10  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  79  91  78 /  10  10  30  10
NAPLES           92  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181218
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
TURN ONSHORE ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
AND INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
EACH AFTERNOON. STRONG RIDGING WILL RESULT IN INTENSE HEAT WHICH
WILL BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK WITH READINGS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
110 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF
YEAR...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS DEPICT UPPER RIDGING BREAKING
DOWN SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD H5 SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DIGS SOUTHWARD...EVEN HINTING AT A
WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN FLORIDA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
EASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  10   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  80  91  78 /  10  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  79  91  78 /  10  10  30  10
NAPLES           92  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181218
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME CONVECTION OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
TURN ONSHORE ALONG THE GULF AND ATLANTIC COASTS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING HOURS. AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
AND INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
EACH AFTERNOON. STRONG RIDGING WILL RESULT IN INTENSE HEAT WHICH
WILL BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK WITH READINGS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
110 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF
YEAR...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS DEPICT UPPER RIDGING BREAKING
DOWN SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD H5 SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DIGS SOUTHWARD...EVEN HINTING AT A
WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN FLORIDA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
EASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  10   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  80  91  78 /  10  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  79  91  78 /  10  10  30  10
NAPLES           92  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 180817
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
417 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
AND INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
EACH AFTERNOON. STRONG RIDGING WILL RESULT IN INTENSE HEAT WHICH
WILL BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK WITH READINGS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
110 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF
YEAR...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS DEPICT UPPER RIDGING BREAKING
DOWN SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD H5 SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DIGS SOUTHWARD...EVEN HINTING AT A
WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN FLORIDA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
EASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  10   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  80  91  78 /  10  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  79  91  78 /  10  10  30  10
NAPLES           92  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 180817
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
417 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...
THE SAHARAN DUST LAYER SHOULD LINGER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY
AND INTO TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. SURFACE FLOW
SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST WITH ONLY LIMITED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR
EACH AFTERNOON. STRONG RIDGING WILL RESULT IN INTENSE HEAT WHICH
WILL BE THE BIG STORY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MAXIMUM HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK WITH READINGS POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS
110 DEGREES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

EVEN THOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SOMEWHAT LESS THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED THIS TIME OF
YEAR...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY STILL PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK MODELS DEPICT UPPER RIDGING BREAKING
DOWN SOMEWHAT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS A BROAD H5 SHORTWAVE PUSHES
OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND DIGS SOUTHWARD...EVEN HINTING AT A
WEAK COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN FLORIDA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, IT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TAF SITES AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND PERSISTING INTO
MIDWEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME. SURFACE WINDS ARE THEN FORECAST TO INCREASE
SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
EASTERLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  78  91  78 /  10   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  80  91  78 /  10  10  30  10
MIAMI            91  79  91  78 /  10  10  30  10
NAPLES           92  79  90  79 /  10  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180531
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
131 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIOHNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

UPDATE...
SAHARAN DUST HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BAHAMAS ISLANDS WHICH IN TURN ENDED THE EARLIER AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SAHARAN DUST
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. SO WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADD HAZE TO THE FORECAST.

THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE AT BEST ISOLATED DUE TO THE SAHARAN DUST OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE LOWERED TO 20 PERCENT OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AND REMAIN DRY OVER THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HAZE WILL ALSO BE ADDED TO SOUTH FLORIDA ZONES FOR
MONDAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SOME MINOR CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE BEGINS A TRANSITION NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE AXIS
HAD BEEN OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT IS NOW
STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE AXIS
WILL BE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING A TAD BIT STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE A DRYING TREND FOR
THE EAST COAST ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW STORMS NEAR THE
COAST ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE STORMS WILL THEN
TREND MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

AEROSOL MODELS HAD SHOWED PROBABLY THE STRONGEST SAHARAN DUST LAYER
(SAL) EPISODE OF THIS SUMMER MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND
BY THE VERY "MILKY" LOOK TO THE SKY, I WOULD SAY IT HAS ARRIVED.
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE SAL COULD ALSO HAVE AN AFFECT IN LIMITING
STORM COVERAGE. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE SAL WEAKENING EARLY THIS WEEK
SO THOUGH THE SKY COULD STILL APPEAR HAZY, THE MILKY LOOK WILL
LIKELY BE MUCH LESS SIGNIFICANT AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. THE DRIER AIR MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN POSSIBLE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST STORMS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS ON JUST HOW MUCH DRYING ALOFT
WILL OCCUR WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWATS DROPPING TO LESS
THAN 1.25 INCHES ON MONDAY WITH A RETURN MOISTURE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
THE NAM HOWEVER HAS THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. AT ANY RATE,
IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A DRYING TREND AT LEAST FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY, A STRONG RIDGE AXIS WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
SET UP A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE AFTERNOON
STORMS CONCENTRATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. AEROSOL
MODELS SHOW THE SAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
BACK TO NORMAL CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WHILE REMAINING AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND
PERSISTING INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  92  77 /  10   0  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  80  92  80 /  10  10  30  10
MIAMI            92  79  92  78 /  10  10  30  10
NAPLES           92  79  91  79 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 180531
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
131 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL BRING MOSTLY QUIET WEATHER
WITH VFR CONDITIOHNS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SOME WEAK CONVECTION IN THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT ANY TAF SITES AT
THIS TIME.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

UPDATE...
SAHARAN DUST HAS MOVED INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE
BAHAMAS ISLANDS WHICH IN TURN ENDED THE EARLIER AFTERNOON SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE SAHARAN DUST
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY. SO WILL KEEP
THE WEATHER DRY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADD HAZE TO THE FORECAST.

THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
WILL BE AT BEST ISOLATED DUE TO THE SAHARAN DUST OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL BE LOWERED TO 20 PERCENT OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AND REMAIN DRY OVER THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS. HAZE WILL ALSO BE ADDED TO SOUTH FLORIDA ZONES FOR
MONDAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SOME MINOR CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK AS
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE BEGINS A TRANSITION NORTHWARD. THE RIDGE AXIS
HAD BEEN OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THE PAST FEW DAYS BUT IS NOW
STRETCHING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE AXIS
WILL BE NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS WILL RESULT IN SEA BREEZE DRIVEN
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT
THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING A TAD BIT STRONGER SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING
FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE A DRYING TREND FOR
THE EAST COAST ALTHOUGH THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW STORMS NEAR THE
COAST ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES. THE STORMS WILL THEN
TREND MORE TOWARDS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOONS.

AEROSOL MODELS HAD SHOWED PROBABLY THE STRONGEST SAHARAN DUST LAYER
(SAL) EPISODE OF THIS SUMMER MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND
BY THE VERY "MILKY" LOOK TO THE SKY, I WOULD SAY IT HAS ARRIVED.
DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE SAL COULD ALSO HAVE AN AFFECT IN LIMITING
STORM COVERAGE. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE SAL WEAKENING EARLY THIS WEEK
SO THOUGH THE SKY COULD STILL APPEAR HAZY, THE MILKY LOOK WILL
LIKELY BE MUCH LESS SIGNIFICANT AS WE MOVE INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEK. THE DRIER AIR MAY ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN POSSIBLE STRONGER
WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE ROBUST STORMS, ESPECIALLY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE MODELS ARE GIVING MIXED SIGNALS ON JUST HOW MUCH DRYING ALOFT
WILL OCCUR WITH BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING PWATS DROPPING TO LESS
THAN 1.25 INCHES ON MONDAY WITH A RETURN MOISTURE FLOW ON TUESDAY.
THE NAM HOWEVER HAS THE DRIEST CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. AT ANY RATE,
IT DOES APPEAR TO BE A DRYING TREND AT LEAST FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
BY WEDNESDAY, A STRONG RIDGE AXIS WILL SET UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ATLANTIC. THIS WILL
SET UP A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE AFTERNOON
STORMS CONCENTRATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. AEROSOL
MODELS SHOW THE SAL WEAKENING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
BACK TO NORMAL CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY.

MARINE...
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WHILE REMAINING AROUND OR BELOW 10 KNOTS AND
PERSISTING INTO MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  92  77 /  10   0  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  80  92  80 /  10  10  30  10
MIAMI            92  79  92  78 /  10  10  30  10
NAPLES           92  79  91  79 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...13/SI




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