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000
FXUS62 KMFL 021415
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1015 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALREADY SPREADING INLAND ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME
THUNDERSTORMS BY NOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER WESTERN AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS AS WELL AS TO
CORRESPOND WITH MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS
FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS WERE...AT 500MB...AT OR WARMER THAN THE
NAM...WHICH WAS FORECASTING WARMER H5 TEMPS THAN GFS. THUS...USING
NAM AS GUIDANCE...COOLER H5 TEMPS ARE UNLIKELY TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION TODAY. OVERALL CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
COAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH ONLY VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF A SHOWER. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
TERMINAL KAPF WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT 18Z. AS THE EASTERLY WINDS
RELAX TODAY...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TERMINAL KAPF COULD HAVE MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER
HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TODAY THAN OVER
LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS WILL ALSO SLOWLY COOL FROM -6C THIS MORNING TO
-8C THIS EVENING...BEFORE COOLING DOWN TO -9C FOR WEDNESDAY AND TO
NEAR -10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS...BEFORE
A GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS, HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
GET BACK TO MORE OF A LATE TIME SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEK BEFORE
SWINGING MORE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 5 TO
10 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 3 FEET OR LESS IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  77 /  40  20  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  79  89  79 /  40  30  50  50
MIAMI            90  78  90  78 /  40  30  50  50
NAPLES           91  75  90  75 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 021415
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1015 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ALREADY SPREADING INLAND ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO BECOME
THUNDERSTORMS BY NOON AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER WESTERN AREAS
OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO REFLECT THIS AS WELL AS TO
CORRESPOND WITH MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS
FLORIDA AND BAHAMAS WERE...AT 500MB...AT OR WARMER THAN THE
NAM...WHICH WAS FORECASTING WARMER H5 TEMPS THAN GFS. THUS...USING
NAM AS GUIDANCE...COOLER H5 TEMPS ARE UNLIKELY TO ADVECT INTO THE
REGION TODAY. OVERALL CONVECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
COAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH ONLY VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF A SHOWER. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
TERMINAL KAPF WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT 18Z. AS THE EASTERLY WINDS
RELAX TODAY...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TERMINAL KAPF COULD HAVE MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER
HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TODAY THAN OVER
LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS WILL ALSO SLOWLY COOL FROM -6C THIS MORNING TO
-8C THIS EVENING...BEFORE COOLING DOWN TO -9C FOR WEDNESDAY AND TO
NEAR -10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS...BEFORE
A GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS, HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
GET BACK TO MORE OF A LATE TIME SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEK BEFORE
SWINGING MORE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 5 TO
10 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 3 FEET OR LESS IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  77 /  40  20  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  79  89  79 /  40  30  50  50
MIAMI            90  78  90  78 /  40  30  50  50
NAPLES           91  75  90  75 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 021156
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
756 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
COAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH ONLY VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF A SHOWER. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
TERMINAL KAPF WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT 18Z. AS THE EASTERLY WINDS
RELAX TODAY...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TERMINAL KAPF COULD HAVE MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

.STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER
HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TODAY THAN OVER
LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS WILL ALSO SLOWLY COOL FROM -6C THIS MORNING TO
-8C THIS EVENING...BEFORE COOLING DOWN TO -9C FOR WEDNESDAY AND TO
NEAR -10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS...BEFORE
A GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS, HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
GET BACK TO MORE OF A LATE TIME SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEK BEFORE
SWINGING MORE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 5 TO
10 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 3 FEET OR LESS IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  77 /  30  20  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  89  79 /  40  30  50  50
MIAMI            90  78  90  78 /  40  30  50  50
NAPLES           91  75  90  75 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 021156
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
756 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...PASSING SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE ATLANTIC
COAST TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL WITH ONLY VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF A SHOWER. FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS...MOST OF
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF
TERMINAL KAPF WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT 18Z. AS THE EASTERLY WINDS
RELAX TODAY...THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE IS EXPECTED BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. TERMINAL KAPF COULD HAVE MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 314 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014/

.STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER
HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TODAY THAN OVER
LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS WILL ALSO SLOWLY COOL FROM -6C THIS MORNING TO
-8C THIS EVENING...BEFORE COOLING DOWN TO -9C FOR WEDNESDAY AND TO
NEAR -10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS...BEFORE
A GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS, HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

LONG TERM...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
GET BACK TO MORE OF A LATE TIME SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEK BEFORE
SWINGING MORE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 5 TO
10 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 3 FEET OR LESS IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  77 /  30  20  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  89  79 /  40  30  50  50
MIAMI            90  78  90  78 /  40  30  50  50
NAPLES           91  75  90  75 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 020714
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
314 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

..STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER
HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TODAY THAN OVER
LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS WILL ALSO SLOWLY COOL FROM -6C THIS MORNING TO
-8C THIS EVENING...BEFORE COOLING DOWN TO -9C FOR WEDNESDAY AND TO
NEAR -10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS...BEFORE
A GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS, HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
GET BACK TO MORE OF A LATE TIME SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEK BEFORE
SWINGING MORE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 5 TO
10 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 3 FEET OR LESS IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  77 /  30  20  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  89  79 /  40  30  50  50
MIAMI            90  78  90  78 /  40  30  50  50
NAPLES           91  75  90  75 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 020714
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
314 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

..STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEAR THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS. AT THE SAME TIME...A LOW LEVEL TROUGH OVER
HISPANIOLA WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALONG WITH
AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE SCATTERED TODAY THAN OVER
LABOR DAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST SOUTHWEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEREFORE...THE SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

THE 500 MB TEMPS WILL ALSO SLOWLY COOL FROM -6C THIS MORNING TO
-8C THIS EVENING...BEFORE COOLING DOWN TO -9C FOR WEDNESDAY AND TO
NEAR -10C ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS...BEFORE
A GREATER COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME THE MAIN THREATS FROM THE STRONG STORMS WILL BE GUSTY
WINDS, HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN WASH OUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...AS THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR TO WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
GET BACK TO MORE OF A LATE TIME SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO
AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS WEEK BEFORE
SWINGING MORE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 5 TO
10 KNOTS TODAY BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SHOULD THEN DROP BACK DOWN TO 5 TO 10
KNOTS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 3 FEET OR LESS IN
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND 2 FEET OR LESS IN THE GULF WATERS THIS
WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND. THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THIS WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  77 /  30  20  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  79  89  79 /  40  30  50  50
MIAMI            90  78  90  78 /  40  30  50  50
NAPLES           91  75  90  75 /  50  30  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 020546
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING, THEN CONCENTRATE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR THE
EAST COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT TSTORM THREAT IS LOWER
THERE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. TSTORM THREAT HIGHER AT
KAPF SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS THERE AND AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH A LOWER RISK OF BRIEF IFR,
PARTICULARLY AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ADJACENT MARINE AREAS, QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED.
FARTHER INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 70S (AROUND NORMAL) BY OR AROUND DAYBREAK. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WILL PUSH SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOLING. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TOWARDS THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 12Z. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THAT
SHOULD END THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE EAST COAST. STORMS WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS KAPF. A WEAK GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEFORE STORMS FORM NEAR THE TAF SITE
ONCE AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS TO REDUCE THE RAINFALL CHANCES THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON
TRACK. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES SO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD TRACK
NORTHWEST AND ENTER THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SO THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS FOR A TREND OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND MOISTURE PASS INTO OR
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COULD LINGER WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK IF NOT
BEYOND. REGIONAL SEAS ARE MAINLY FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE GULF STREAM COULD HAVE SEAS
NEAR 3 FEET AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  89  77  89 /  30  50  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  89  79  90 /  30  60  40  60
MIAMI            79  89  78  89 /  30  60  40  60
NAPLES           76  90  76  90 /  20  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 020546
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
THE EAST COAST THIS MORNING, THEN CONCENTRATE OVER THE INTERIOR
AND GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN VCSH FOR THE
EAST COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, BUT TSTORM THREAT IS LOWER
THERE SO WILL NOT INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. TSTORM THREAT HIGHER AT
KAPF SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS THERE AND AN ONSHORE SEA BREEZE IN THE
AFTERNOON. BRIEF MVFR IS POSSIBLE WITH A LOWER RISK OF BRIEF IFR,
PARTICULARLY AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ADJACENT MARINE AREAS, QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED.
FARTHER INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 70S (AROUND NORMAL) BY OR AROUND DAYBREAK. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WILL PUSH SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOLING. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TOWARDS THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 12Z. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THAT
SHOULD END THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE EAST COAST. STORMS WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS KAPF. A WEAK GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEFORE STORMS FORM NEAR THE TAF SITE
ONCE AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS TO REDUCE THE RAINFALL CHANCES THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON
TRACK. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES SO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD TRACK
NORTHWEST AND ENTER THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SO THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS FOR A TREND OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND MOISTURE PASS INTO OR
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COULD LINGER WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK IF NOT
BEYOND. REGIONAL SEAS ARE MAINLY FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE GULF STREAM COULD HAVE SEAS
NEAR 3 FEET AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  89  77  89 /  30  50  40  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  89  79  90 /  30  60  40  60
MIAMI            79  89  78  89 /  30  60  40  60
NAPLES           76  90  76  90 /  20  60  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 020126
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
926 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ADJACENT MARINE AREAS, QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED.
FARTHER INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 70S (AROUND NORMAL) BY OR AROUND DAYBREAK. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WILL PUSH SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOLING. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TOWARDS THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 12Z. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THAT
SHOULD END THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE EAST COAST. STORMS WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS KAPF. A WEAK GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEFORE STORMS FORM NEAR THE TAF SITE
ONCE AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS TO REDUCE THE RAINFALL CHANCES THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON
TRACK. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES SO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD TRACK
NORTHWEST AND ENTER THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SO THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS FOR A TREND OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND MOISTURE PASS INTO OR
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COULD LINGER WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK IF NOT
BEYOND. REGIONAL SEAS ARE MAINLY FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE GULF STREAM COULD HAVE SEAS
NEAR 3 FEET AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  78  89 /   0  40  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  79  89 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            80  89  79  89 /  10  40  30  60
NAPLES           76  91  76  90 /   0  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 020126
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
926 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE ADJACENT MARINE AREAS, QUIET
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE ONCE AGAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST WITH LOWER 80S EXPECTED.
FARTHER INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER 70S (AROUND NORMAL) BY OR AROUND DAYBREAK. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 735 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WILL PUSH SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOLING. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TOWARDS THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 12Z. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THAT
SHOULD END THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE EAST COAST. STORMS WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS KAPF. A WEAK GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEFORE STORMS FORM NEAR THE TAF SITE
ONCE AGAIN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS TO REDUCE THE RAINFALL CHANCES THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON
TRACK. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES SO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD TRACK
NORTHWEST AND ENTER THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SO THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS FOR A TREND OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND MOISTURE PASS INTO OR
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COULD LINGER WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK IF NOT
BEYOND. REGIONAL SEAS ARE MAINLY FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE GULF STREAM COULD HAVE SEAS
NEAR 3 FEET AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  78  89 /   0  40  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  79  89 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            80  89  79  89 /  10  40  30  60
NAPLES           76  91  76  90 /   0  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 012335
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WILL PUSH SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOLING. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TOWARDS THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 12Z. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THAT
SHOULD END THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE EAST COAST. STORMS WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS KAPF. A WEAK GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEFORE STORMS FORM NEAR THE TAF SITE
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS TO REDUCE THE RAINFALL CHANCES THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON
TRACK. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES SO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD TRACK
NORTHWEST AND ENTER THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SO THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS FOR A TREND OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND MOISTURE PASS INTO OR
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COULD LINGER WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK IF NOT
BEYOND. REGIONAL SEAS ARE MAINLY FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE GULF STREAM COULD HAVE SEAS
NEAR 3 FEET AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  78  89 /   0  40  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  79  89 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            80  89  79  89 /  10  40  30  60
NAPLES           76  91  76  90 /   0  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 012335
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT WITH VFR CONDITIONS. AN UPPER
LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS WILL PUSH SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOLING. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY MOVE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TOWARDS THE TAF SITES LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THINK THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE AFTER 12Z. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THAT
SHOULD END THE SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE EAST COAST. STORMS WILL THEN
MOVE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS KAPF. A WEAK GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEFORE STORMS FORM NEAR THE TAF SITE
ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS TO REDUCE THE RAINFALL CHANCES THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON
TRACK. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES SO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD TRACK
NORTHWEST AND ENTER THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SO THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS FOR A TREND OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND MOISTURE PASS INTO OR
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COULD LINGER WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK IF NOT
BEYOND. REGIONAL SEAS ARE MAINLY FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE GULF STREAM COULD HAVE SEAS
NEAR 3 FEET AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  78  89 /   0  40  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  79  89 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            80  89  79  89 /  10  40  30  60
NAPLES           76  91  76  90 /   0  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 012115
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS TO REDUCE THE RAINFALL CHANCES THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON
TRACK. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES SO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD TRACK
NORTHWEST AND ENTER THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SO THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS FOR A TREND OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND MOISTURE PASS INTO OR
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COULD LINGER WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK IF NOT
BEYOND. REGIONAL SEAS ARE MAINLY FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE GULF STREAM COULD HAVE SEAS
NEAR 3 FEET AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  78  89 /   0  40  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  79  89 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            80  89  79  89 /  10  40  30  60
NAPLES           76  91  76  90 /   0  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 012115
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
515 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA. THE LARGEST CHANGE WAS
ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS TO REDUCE THE RAINFALL CHANCES THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON
TRACK. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES SO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD TRACK
NORTHWEST AND ENTER THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SO THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS FOR A TREND OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND MOISTURE PASS INTO OR
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COULD LINGER WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK IF NOT
BEYOND. REGIONAL SEAS ARE MAINLY FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE GULF STREAM COULD HAVE SEAS
NEAR 3 FEET AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  78  89 /   0  40  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  79  89 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            80  89  79  89 /  10  40  30  60
NAPLES           76  91  76  90 /   0  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 011851
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES SO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD TRACK
NORTHWEST AND ENTER THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SO THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS FOR A TREND OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND MOISTURE PASS INTO OR
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COULD LINGER WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK IF NOT
BEYOND. REGIONAL SEAS ARE MAINLY FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE GULF STREAM COULD HAVE SEAS
NEAR 3 FEET AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  78  89 /  20  40  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  79  89 /  20  40  30  60
MIAMI            80  89  79  89 /  20  40  30  60
NAPLES           76  91  76  90 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 011851
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
251 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE
AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RETROGRADING TO THE SOUTHWEST
WHICH IS SUPPORTING ACTIVE CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE WESTWARD THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS IT DOES SO THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE COULD TRACK
NORTHWEST AND ENTER THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TUESDAY AND
PASS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SO THE OVERALL
FORECAST IS FOR A TREND OF INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AND MOISTURE PASS INTO OR
ACROSS THE REGION. THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. BY
FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE COULD LINGER WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK IF NOT
BEYOND. REGIONAL SEAS ARE MAINLY FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS
THROUGH THE SAME PERIOD ALTHOUGH THE GULF STREAM COULD HAVE SEAS
NEAR 3 FEET AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  78  89 /  20  40  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  90  79  89 /  20  40  30  60
MIAMI            80  89  79  89 /  20  40  30  60
NAPLES           76  91  76  90 /  30  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011730
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
130 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION APPEARS TO HAVE FINALLY SET UP ALONG THE EAST
COAST WITH MOST SHRA ACTIVITY DIMINISHING. STILL COULD HAVE ONE OR
TWO SHRA DEVELOP UNTIL AROUND 20Z BUT TOO ISOLATED TO PLACE
MENTION IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. LATEST SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE INDICATES CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO FIRE ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST COAST BTWN 18-19Z SO KEPT MENTION OF VCTS IN THE KAPF
TAF. GUIDANCE ALSO INSISTING EAST FLOW TOO STRONG AND WILL INHIBIT
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM SETTING UP BUT THE WIND AT KAPF MAY
BECOME MORE SSE AS THE CIRCULATION TRIES TO DEVELOP.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1021 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS ENTERING
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS IS BRINGING IN SOME DRIER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS MORNING.
RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MINOR UPDATES WERE DONE TO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. BUT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS...THAT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. THERE IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATER
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MOST DOMINANT. SO OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC REASONING
EXCEPT FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH A
MODERATE EAST WIND FLOW. ANTICIPATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH A WESTWARD PROPAGATION. AT THIS TIME, PLACED A
VCTS IN THE KAPF TAF AFT 19Z AND THEY COULD HAVE A BRIEF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EAST FLOW WILL PREVENT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST BUT WIND IS LIKELY TO VEER TO
THE SSE AS IT TRIES TO FORM.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* SLIGHT TSTORM CHANCE EAST COAST, BETTER CHANCE GULF COAST TODAY
* STORMIER PATTERN MID-LATE WEEK; STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ON THIS LABOR DAY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH
FLORIDA, MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW LOCALLY WITH CONVECTIVE
FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISALLOW A FULL GULF SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING, BUT SOME VEERING OF THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTEDTHERE
WHICH AGAIN WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE EAST COAST, HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH QUICK PASSING SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CANNOT RULE
OUT TSTORMS EAST COAST BUT CONVERGENCE WILL BE LACKING SO COVERAGE
WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

LIKE YESTERDAY, A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE ACTIVE TSTORMS IS THE
LACK OF A FULL FLEDGED ONSHORE GULF SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER, CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG TSTORM OR TWO GIVEN SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
THE INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WED NIGHT-THU. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE, SPELLING A STORMIER PERIOD MID WEEK AND EVEN INTO LATE
WEEK AS HIGHER INSTABILITY REMAINS. POPS ACCORDINGLY SHOW AN
UPWARD TREND MID-LATE WEEK. COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ANYWHERE
BEGINNING WED THROUGH LATE WEEK DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
TROUGH PASSAGE, THOUGH MORE CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
/GREGORIA

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP A EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AFTER 14Z TODAY BUT
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS WORKS INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 14Z.
SO WILL PUT IN VCSH AFTER 14Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...A LATE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 21Z TODAY. SO WILL
PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

MARINE...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT WILL PREVAIL AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
WED- THU, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011421
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1021 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS ENTERING
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS IS BRINGING IN SOME DRIER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS MORNING.
RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MINOR UPDATES WERE DONE TO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. BUT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS...THAT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. THERE IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATER
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MOST DOMINANT. SO OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC REASONING
EXCEPT FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH A
MODERATE EAST WIND FLOW. ANTICIPATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH A WESTWARD PROPAGATION. AT THIS TIME, PLACED A
VCTS IN THE KAPF TAF AFT 19Z AND THEY COULD HAVE A BRIEF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EAST FLOW WILL PREVENT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST BUT WIND IS LIKELY TO VEER TO
THE SSE AS IT TRIES TO FORM.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* SLIGHT TSTORM CHANCE EAST COAST, BETTER CHANCE GULF COAST TODAY
* STORMIER PATTERN MID-LATE WEEK; STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ON THIS LABOR DAY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH
FLORIDA, MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW LOCALLY WITH CONVECTIVE
FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISALLOW A FULL GULF SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING, BUT SOME VEERING OF THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTEDTHERE
WHICH AGAIN WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE EAST COAST, HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH QUICK PASSING SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CANNOT RULE
OUT TSTORMS EAST COAST BUT CONVERGENCE WILL BE LACKING SO COVERAGE
WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

LIKE YESTERDAY, A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE ACTIVE TSTORMS IS THE
LACK OF A FULL FLEDGED ONSHORE GULF SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER, CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG TSTORM OR TWO GIVEN SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
THE INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WED NIGHT-THU. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE, SPELLING A STORMIER PERIOD MID WEEK AND EVEN INTO LATE
WEEK AS HIGHER INSTABILITY REMAINS. POPS ACCORDINGLY SHOW AN
UPWARD TREND MID-LATE WEEK. COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ANYWHERE
BEGINNING WED THROUGH LATE WEEK DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
TROUGH PASSAGE, THOUGH MORE CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
/GREGORIA

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP A EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AFTER 14Z TODAY BUT
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS WORKS INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 14Z.
SO WILL PUT IN VCSH AFTER 14Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...A LATE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 21Z TODAY. SO WILL
PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

MARINE...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT WILL PREVAIL AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
WED- THU, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  79  90  77 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  90  80 /  30  20  50  20
MIAMI            90  80  89  78 /  30  20  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  76 /  60  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 011421
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1021 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND IS ENTERING
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. THIS IS BRINGING IN SOME DRIER MID TO UPPER
LEVEL AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS THIS MORNING.
RECENT RADAR RETURNS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY MAINLY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MINOR UPDATES WERE DONE TO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CURRENT CONDITIONS. BUT AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHWEST AND INTO
THE REGIONAL ATLANTIC WATERS...THAT WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION. THERE IS CURRENTLY ACTIVE CONVECTION IN
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS ISLANDS. SO THE FORECAST REFLECTS SCATTERED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY POSSIBLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH GREATER
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN PENINSULA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WHERE THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL BE MOST DOMINANT. SO OVERALL NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC REASONING
EXCEPT FOR THE VERY SHORT TERM.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 728 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH A
MODERATE EAST WIND FLOW. ANTICIPATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH A WESTWARD PROPAGATION. AT THIS TIME, PLACED A
VCTS IN THE KAPF TAF AFT 19Z AND THEY COULD HAVE A BRIEF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EAST FLOW WILL PREVENT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST BUT WIND IS LIKELY TO VEER TO
THE SSE AS IT TRIES TO FORM.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* SLIGHT TSTORM CHANCE EAST COAST, BETTER CHANCE GULF COAST TODAY
* STORMIER PATTERN MID-LATE WEEK; STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ON THIS LABOR DAY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH
FLORIDA, MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW LOCALLY WITH CONVECTIVE
FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISALLOW A FULL GULF SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING, BUT SOME VEERING OF THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTEDTHERE
WHICH AGAIN WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE EAST COAST, HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH QUICK PASSING SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CANNOT RULE
OUT TSTORMS EAST COAST BUT CONVERGENCE WILL BE LACKING SO COVERAGE
WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

LIKE YESTERDAY, A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE ACTIVE TSTORMS IS THE
LACK OF A FULL FLEDGED ONSHORE GULF SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER, CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG TSTORM OR TWO GIVEN SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
THE INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WED NIGHT-THU. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE, SPELLING A STORMIER PERIOD MID WEEK AND EVEN INTO LATE
WEEK AS HIGHER INSTABILITY REMAINS. POPS ACCORDINGLY SHOW AN
UPWARD TREND MID-LATE WEEK. COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ANYWHERE
BEGINNING WED THROUGH LATE WEEK DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
TROUGH PASSAGE, THOUGH MORE CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
/GREGORIA

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP A EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AFTER 14Z TODAY BUT
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS WORKS INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 14Z.
SO WILL PUT IN VCSH AFTER 14Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...A LATE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 21Z TODAY. SO WILL
PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

MARINE...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT WILL PREVAIL AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
WED- THU, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  79  90  77 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  90  80 /  30  20  50  20
MIAMI            90  80  89  78 /  30  20  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  76 /  60  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011128
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
728 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH A
MODERATE EAST WIND FLOW. ANTICIPATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH A WESTWARD PROPAGATION. AT THIS TIME, PLACED A
VCTS IN THE KAPF TAF AFT 19Z AND THEY COULD HAVE A BRIEF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EAST FLOW WILL PREVENT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST BUT WIND IS LIKELY TO VEER TO
THE SSE AS IT TRIES TO FORM.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* SLIGHT TSTORM CHANCE EAST COAST, BETTER CHANCE GULF COAST TODAY
* STORMIER PATTERN MID-LATE WEEK; STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ON THIS LABOR DAY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH
FLORIDA, MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW LOCALLY WITH CONVECTIVE
FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISALLOW A FULL GULF SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING, BUT SOME VEERING OF THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTEDTHERE
WHICH AGAIN WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE EAST COAST, HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH QUICK PASSING SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CANNOT RULE
OUT TSTORMS EAST COAST BUT CONVERGENCE WILL BE LACKING SO COVERAGE
WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

LIKE YESTERDAY, A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE ACTIVE TSTORMS IS THE
LACK OF A FULL FLEDGED ONSHORE GULF SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER, CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG TSTORM OR TWO GIVEN SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
THE INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WED NIGHT-THU. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE, SPELLING A STORMIER PERIOD MID WEEK AND EVEN INTO LATE
WEEK AS HIGHER INSTABILITY REMAINS. POPS ACCORDINGLY SHOW AN
UPWARD TREND MID-LATE WEEK. COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ANYWHERE
BEGINNING WED THROUGH LATE WEEK DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
TROUGH PASSAGE, THOUGH MORE CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
/GREGORIA

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP A EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AFTER 14Z TODAY BUT
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS WORKS INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 14Z.
SO WILL PUT IN VCSH AFTER 14Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...A LATE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 21Z TODAY. SO WILL
PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

MARINE...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT WILL PREVAIL AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
WED- THU, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 011128
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
728 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WITH A
MODERATE EAST WIND FLOW. ANTICIPATED TSRA DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH A WESTWARD PROPAGATION. AT THIS TIME, PLACED A
VCTS IN THE KAPF TAF AFT 19Z AND THEY COULD HAVE A BRIEF MVFR OR
EVEN IFR CIG/VSBY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EAST FLOW WILL PREVENT A
SEA BREEZE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST BUT WIND IS LIKELY TO VEER TO
THE SSE AS IT TRIES TO FORM.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* SLIGHT TSTORM CHANCE EAST COAST, BETTER CHANCE GULF COAST TODAY
* STORMIER PATTERN MID-LATE WEEK; STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE

DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ON THIS LABOR DAY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH
FLORIDA, MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW LOCALLY WITH CONVECTIVE
FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISALLOW A FULL GULF SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING, BUT SOME VEERING OF THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTEDTHERE
WHICH AGAIN WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE EAST COAST, HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH QUICK PASSING SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CANNOT RULE
OUT TSTORMS EAST COAST BUT CONVERGENCE WILL BE LACKING SO COVERAGE
WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

LIKE YESTERDAY, A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE ACTIVE TSTORMS IS THE
LACK OF A FULL FLEDGED ONSHORE GULF SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER, CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG TSTORM OR TWO GIVEN SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
THE INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WED NIGHT-THU. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE, SPELLING A STORMIER PERIOD MID WEEK AND EVEN INTO LATE
WEEK AS HIGHER INSTABILITY REMAINS. POPS ACCORDINGLY SHOW AN
UPWARD TREND MID-LATE WEEK. COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ANYWHERE
BEGINNING WED THROUGH LATE WEEK DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
TROUGH PASSAGE, THOUGH MORE CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
/GREGORIA

AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP A EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AFTER 14Z TODAY BUT
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS WORKS INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 14Z.
SO WILL PUT IN VCSH AFTER 14Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...A LATE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 21Z TODAY. SO WILL
PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

MARINE...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT WILL PREVAIL AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
WED- THU, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 010729
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
329 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* SLIGHT TSTORM CHANCE EAST COAST, BETTER CHANCE GULF COAST TODAY
* STORMIER PATTERN MID-LATE WEEK; STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ON THIS LABOR DAY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH
FLORIDA, MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW LOCALLY WITH CONVECTIVE
FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISALLOW A FULL GULF SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING, BUT SOME VEERING OF THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTEDTHERE
WHICH AGAIN WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE EAST COAST, HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH QUICK PASSING SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CANNOT RULE
OUT TSTORMS EAST COAST BUT CONVERGENCE WILL BE LACKING SO COVERAGE
WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

LIKE YESTERDAY, A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE ACTIVE TSTORMS IS THE
LACK OF A FULL FLEDGED ONSHORE GULF SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER, CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG TSTORM OR TWO GIVEN SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
THE INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WED NIGHT-THU. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE, SPELLING A STORMIER PERIOD MID WEEK AND EVEN INTO LATE
WEEK AS HIGHER INSTABILITY REMAINS. POPS ACCORDINGLY SHOW AN
UPWARD TREND MID-LATE WEEK. COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ANYWHERE
BEGINNING WED THROUGH LATE WEEK DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
TROUGH PASSAGE, THOUGH MORE CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
/GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP A EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AFTER 14Z TODAY BUT
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS WORKS INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 14Z.
SO WILL PUT IN VCSH AFTER 14Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...A LATE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 21Z TODAY. SO WILL
PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

&&

.MARINE...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT WILL PREVAIL AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
WED- THU, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  79  90  77 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  90  80 /  30  20  50  20
MIAMI            90  80  89  78 /  30  20  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  76 /  60  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 010729
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
329 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.HIGHLIGHTS...

* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* SLIGHT TSTORM CHANCE EAST COAST, BETTER CHANCE GULF COAST TODAY
* STORMIER PATTERN MID-LATE WEEK; STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE

.DISCUSSION...
THE WEATHER PATTERN ON THIS LABOR DAY WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY UNCHANGED FROM YESTERDAY. RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH
FLORIDA, MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW LOCALLY WITH CONVECTIVE
FOCUS ALONG THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO DISALLOW A FULL GULF SEA BREEZE FROM
DEVELOPING, BUT SOME VEERING OF THE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTEDTHERE
WHICH AGAIN WILL LEAD TO ENOUGH CONVERGENCE TO SPARK SOME TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. ACROSS THE EAST COAST, HRRR SHOWS A SCENARIO SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY WITH QUICK PASSING SHOWERS DEVELOPING. CANNOT RULE
OUT TSTORMS EAST COAST BUT CONVERGENCE WILL BE LACKING SO COVERAGE
WOULD BE ISOLATED AT BEST.

LIKE YESTERDAY, A LIMITING FACTOR FOR MORE ACTIVE TSTORMS IS THE
LACK OF A FULL FLEDGED ONSHORE GULF SEA BREEZE. HOWEVER, CANNOT
RULE OUT A STRONG TSTORM OR TWO GIVEN SOME CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH
THE INSTABILITY AND CONTINUED DRY AIR ALOFT. WIND GUSTS OF 40-50
MPH IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.

A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH EAST OF THE BAHAMAS IS SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO MOVE WEST AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WED NIGHT-THU. THIS
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH COOLING ALOFT ALONG WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE, SPELLING A STORMIER PERIOD MID WEEK AND EVEN INTO LATE
WEEK AS HIGHER INSTABILITY REMAINS. POPS ACCORDINGLY SHOW AN
UPWARD TREND MID-LATE WEEK. COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS ANYWHERE
BEGINNING WED THROUGH LATE WEEK DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT AND
TROUGH PASSAGE, THOUGH MORE CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR.
/GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP A EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AFTER 14Z TODAY BUT
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS WORKS INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 14Z.
SO WILL PUT IN VCSH AFTER 14Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...A LATE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 21Z TODAY. SO WILL
PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

&&

.MARINE...EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 15 KT WILL PREVAIL AS
THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE
CORRESPONDINGLY LOW. A TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS LATE
WED- THU, BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  79  90  77 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  90  80 /  30  20  50  20
MIAMI            90  80  89  78 /  30  20  50  20
NAPLES           91  76  91  76 /  60  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 010548 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
148 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP A EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AFTER 14Z TODAY BUT
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS WORKS INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 14Z.
SO WILL PUT IN VCSH AFTER 14Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...A LATE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 21Z TODAY. SO WILL
PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE RIP CURRENT RISK
HEADLINE FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES AND TO UPDATE THE
RAINFALL CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. 85/

$$

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
BROWARD COUNTY. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW STREAMER SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TOWARDS KAPF AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS AGAIN BY NOON ON MONDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KAPF MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUE NIGHT)...

MORE MOISTURE, IN THE FORM OF HIGHER PWATS TODAY, HAS LED TO
SOMEWHAT MORE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO, A FEW MORE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC, WITH SOME CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND SOME EVEN CROSSING
INLAND, SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT. BASED ON OUR LOCAL
MODEL AND WINDS/OBS, WILL LET RIP CURRENT STATEMENT END AT 8P.
LAPSE RATES AND MIDLEVEL TEMPS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY, AND
POP FORECAST AGAIN FEATURES HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN EASTERLY FLOW SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY GULF
BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING, AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE
BAHAMAS GETS CLOSER LATER TUESDAY, STILL SEEMS AS THOUGH EFFECTS
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOSTLY DEALT WITH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY, AS MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE MID LEVELS LOOK
SIMILAR TO MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT FROM
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR TUESDAY. THE NAM IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF OR GFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN
PENINSULA WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WITH VCTS
ASSIGNED AT 20Z. PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OCCASIONALLY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
H5 TEMP ARE SMALLER AND HAVE WARMED RESPECTIVELY, IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY`S SOUNDING. MOISTURE AND PWAT HAVE INCREASED WITH SAL
DEPARTED OR GREATLY WEAKENED. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS,
PROBABLY AGAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY GULF SEA BREEZE.
THUS, EXPECTING THE AFTERNOON TO UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH WESTERN COLLIER AND THE COLLIER COAST.
BETTER MOISTURE HAS ELICITED MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS MORNING, AND SOME OF THESE QUICK SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE
TO THE BEACHES DURING THE REST OF TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS TODAY WITH ONLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT
21Z BUT THE TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOONER.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  89  76  89 /  20  30  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  90  79  89 /  20  30  30  50
MIAMI            80  89  78  89 /  20  30  20  50
NAPLES           77  90  76  90 /  30  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 010548 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
148 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES TODAY WHICH IN TURN WILL KEEP A EASTERLY WIND FLOW OF
AROUND 5 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.
THE WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AFTER 14Z TODAY BUT
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE
SOME SHOWERS WORKS INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AFTER 14Z.
SO WILL PUT IN VCSH AFTER 14Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...THE WEATHER WILL ALSO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LABOR DAY. HOWEVER...A LATE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD
DEVELOP AND PUSH INTO THE KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 21Z TODAY. SO WILL
PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 21Z AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS LABOR DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 834 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...
LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE RIP CURRENT RISK
HEADLINE FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES AND TO UPDATE THE
RAINFALL CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. 85/

$$

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
BROWARD COUNTY. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW STREAMER SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TOWARDS KAPF AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS AGAIN BY NOON ON MONDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KAPF MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUE NIGHT)...

MORE MOISTURE, IN THE FORM OF HIGHER PWATS TODAY, HAS LED TO
SOMEWHAT MORE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO, A FEW MORE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC, WITH SOME CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND SOME EVEN CROSSING
INLAND, SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT. BASED ON OUR LOCAL
MODEL AND WINDS/OBS, WILL LET RIP CURRENT STATEMENT END AT 8P.
LAPSE RATES AND MIDLEVEL TEMPS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY, AND
POP FORECAST AGAIN FEATURES HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN EASTERLY FLOW SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY GULF
BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING, AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE
BAHAMAS GETS CLOSER LATER TUESDAY, STILL SEEMS AS THOUGH EFFECTS
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOSTLY DEALT WITH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY, AS MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE MID LEVELS LOOK
SIMILAR TO MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT FROM
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR TUESDAY. THE NAM IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF OR GFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN
PENINSULA WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WITH VCTS
ASSIGNED AT 20Z. PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OCCASIONALLY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
H5 TEMP ARE SMALLER AND HAVE WARMED RESPECTIVELY, IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY`S SOUNDING. MOISTURE AND PWAT HAVE INCREASED WITH SAL
DEPARTED OR GREATLY WEAKENED. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS,
PROBABLY AGAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY GULF SEA BREEZE.
THUS, EXPECTING THE AFTERNOON TO UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH WESTERN COLLIER AND THE COLLIER COAST.
BETTER MOISTURE HAS ELICITED MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS MORNING, AND SOME OF THESE QUICK SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE
TO THE BEACHES DURING THE REST OF TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS TODAY WITH ONLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT
21Z BUT THE TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOONER.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  89  76  89 /  20  30  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  90  79  89 /  20  30  30  50
MIAMI            80  89  78  89 /  20  30  20  50
NAPLES           77  90  76  90 /  30  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 010034
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
834 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE RIP CURRENT RISK
HEADLINE FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES AND TO UPDATE THE
RAINFALL CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. 85/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
BROWARD COUNTY. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW STREAMER SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TOWARDS KAPF AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS AGAIN BY NOON ON MONDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KAPF MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUE NIGHT)...

MORE MOISTURE, IN THE FORM OF HIGHER PWATS TODAY, HAS LED TO
SOMEWHAT MORE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO, A FEW MORE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC, WITH SOME CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND SOME EVEN CROSSING
INLAND, SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT. BASED ON OUR LOCAL
MODEL AND WINDS/OBS, WILL LET RIP CURRENT STATEMENT END AT 8P.
LAPSE RATES AND MIDLEVEL TEMPS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY, AND
POP FORECAST AGAIN FEATURES HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN EASTERLY FLOW SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY GULF
BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING, AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE
BAHAMAS GETS CLOSER LATER TUESDAY, STILL SEEMS AS THOUGH EFFECTS
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOSTLY DEALT WITH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY, AS MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE MID LEVELS LOOK
SIMILAR TO MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT FROM
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR TUESDAY. THE NAM IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF OR GFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN
PENINSULA WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WITH VCTS
ASSIGNED AT 20Z. PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OCCASIONALLY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
H5 TEMP ARE SMALLER AND HAVE WARMED RESPECTIVELY, IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY`S SOUNDING. MOISTURE AND PWAT HAVE INCREASED WITH SAL
DEPARTED OR GREATLY WEAKENED. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS,
PROBABLY AGAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY GULF SEA BREEZE.
THUS, EXPECTING THE AFTERNOON TO UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH WESTERN COLLIER AND THE COLLIER COAST.
BETTER MOISTURE HAS ELICITED MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS MORNING, AND SOME OF THESE QUICK SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE
TO THE BEACHES DURING THE REST OF TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS TODAY WITH ONLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT
21Z BUT THE TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOONER.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  90  79  89 /  20  30  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  91  81  90 /  30  30  20  30
MIAMI            81  90  80  89 /  30  30  20  30
NAPLES           77  91  77  90 /  30  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 010034
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
834 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST FORECAST PACKAGE WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE RIP CURRENT RISK
HEADLINE FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES AND TO UPDATE THE
RAINFALL CHANCES BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. OTHERWISE...THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON TRACK. 85/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
BROWARD COUNTY. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW STREAMER SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TOWARDS KAPF AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS AGAIN BY NOON ON MONDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KAPF MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUE NIGHT)...

MORE MOISTURE, IN THE FORM OF HIGHER PWATS TODAY, HAS LED TO
SOMEWHAT MORE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO, A FEW MORE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC, WITH SOME CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND SOME EVEN CROSSING
INLAND, SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT. BASED ON OUR LOCAL
MODEL AND WINDS/OBS, WILL LET RIP CURRENT STATEMENT END AT 8P.
LAPSE RATES AND MIDLEVEL TEMPS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY, AND
POP FORECAST AGAIN FEATURES HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN EASTERLY FLOW SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY GULF
BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING, AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE
BAHAMAS GETS CLOSER LATER TUESDAY, STILL SEEMS AS THOUGH EFFECTS
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOSTLY DEALT WITH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY, AS MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE MID LEVELS LOOK
SIMILAR TO MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT FROM
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR TUESDAY. THE NAM IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF OR GFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN
PENINSULA WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WITH VCTS
ASSIGNED AT 20Z. PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OCCASIONALLY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
H5 TEMP ARE SMALLER AND HAVE WARMED RESPECTIVELY, IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY`S SOUNDING. MOISTURE AND PWAT HAVE INCREASED WITH SAL
DEPARTED OR GREATLY WEAKENED. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS,
PROBABLY AGAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY GULF SEA BREEZE.
THUS, EXPECTING THE AFTERNOON TO UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH WESTERN COLLIER AND THE COLLIER COAST.
BETTER MOISTURE HAS ELICITED MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS MORNING, AND SOME OF THESE QUICK SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE
TO THE BEACHES DURING THE REST OF TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS TODAY WITH ONLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT
21Z BUT THE TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOONER.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  90  79  89 /  20  30  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  91  81  90 /  30  30  20  30
MIAMI            81  90  80  89 /  30  30  20  30
NAPLES           77  91  77  90 /  30  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 312336
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
736 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
BROWARD COUNTY. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW STREAMER SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TOWARDS KAPF AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS AGAIN BY NOON ON MONDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KAPF MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUE NIGHT)...

MORE MOISTURE, IN THE FORM OF HIGHER PWATS TODAY, HAS LED TO
SOMEWHAT MORE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO, A FEW MORE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC, WITH SOME CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND SOME EVEN CROSSING
INLAND, SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT. BASED ON OUR LOCAL
MODEL AND WINDS/OBS, WILL LET RIP CURRENT STATEMENT END AT 8P.
LAPSE RATES AND MIDLEVEL TEMPS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY, AND
POP FORECAST AGAIN FEATURES HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN EASTERLY FLOW SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY GULF
BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING, AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE
BAHAMAS GETS CLOSER LATER TUESDAY, STILL SEEMS AS THOUGH EFFECTS
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOSTLY DEALT WITH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY, AS MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE MID LEVELS LOOK
SIMILAR TO MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT FROM
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR TUESDAY. THE NAM IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF OR GFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN
PENINSULA WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WITH VCTS
ASSIGNED AT 20Z. PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OCCASIONALLY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
H5 TEMP ARE SMALLER AND HAVE WARMED RESPECTIVELY, IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY`S SOUNDING. MOISTURE AND PWAT HAVE INCREASED WITH SAL
DEPARTED OR GREATLY WEAKENED. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS,
PROBABLY AGAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY GULF SEA BREEZE.
THUS, EXPECTING THE AFTERNOON TO UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH WESTERN COLLIER AND THE COLLIER COAST.
BETTER MOISTURE HAS ELICITED MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS MORNING, AND SOME OF THESE QUICK SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE
TO THE BEACHES DURING THE REST OF TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS TODAY WITH ONLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT
21Z BUT THE TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOONER.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  90  79  89 /  20  30  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  91  81  90 /  30  30  20  30
MIAMI            81  90  80  89 /  30  30  20  30
NAPLES           77  91  77  90 /  30  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 312336
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
736 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND MOVE
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
BROWARD COUNTY. THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW STREAMER SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES TONIGHT AND
AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY. CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO PUSH
TOWARDS KAPF AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10
KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AND THEN INCREASE TO AROUND
10 KNOTS AGAIN BY NOON ON MONDAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KAPF MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 255 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUE NIGHT)...

MORE MOISTURE, IN THE FORM OF HIGHER PWATS TODAY, HAS LED TO
SOMEWHAT MORE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO, A FEW MORE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC, WITH SOME CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND SOME EVEN CROSSING
INLAND, SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT. BASED ON OUR LOCAL
MODEL AND WINDS/OBS, WILL LET RIP CURRENT STATEMENT END AT 8P.
LAPSE RATES AND MIDLEVEL TEMPS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY, AND
POP FORECAST AGAIN FEATURES HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN EASTERLY FLOW SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY GULF
BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING, AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE
BAHAMAS GETS CLOSER LATER TUESDAY, STILL SEEMS AS THOUGH EFFECTS
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOSTLY DEALT WITH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY, AS MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE MID LEVELS LOOK
SIMILAR TO MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT FROM
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR TUESDAY. THE NAM IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF OR GFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN
PENINSULA WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WITH VCTS
ASSIGNED AT 20Z. PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OCCASIONALLY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
H5 TEMP ARE SMALLER AND HAVE WARMED RESPECTIVELY, IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY`S SOUNDING. MOISTURE AND PWAT HAVE INCREASED WITH SAL
DEPARTED OR GREATLY WEAKENED. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS,
PROBABLY AGAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY GULF SEA BREEZE.
THUS, EXPECTING THE AFTERNOON TO UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY
WITH HIGHEST POPS THROUGH WESTERN COLLIER AND THE COLLIER COAST.
BETTER MOISTURE HAS ELICITED MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS MORNING, AND SOME OF THESE QUICK SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE
TO THE BEACHES DURING THE REST OF TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS TODAY WITH ONLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT
21Z BUT THE TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOONER.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  90  79  89 /  20  30  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  91  81  90 /  30  30  20  30
MIAMI            81  90  80  89 /  30  30  20  30
NAPLES           77  91  77  90 /  30  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 311855
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUE NIGHT)...

MORE MOISTURE, IN THE FORM OF HIGHER PWATS TODAY, HAS LED TO
SOMEWHAT MORE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO, A FEW MORE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC, WITH SOME CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND SOME EVEN CROSSING
INLAND, SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT. BASED ON OUR LOCAL
MODEL AND WINDS/OBS, WILL LET RIP CURRENT STATEMENT END AT 8P.
LAPSE RATES AND MIDLEVEL TEMPS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY, AND
POP FORECAST AGAIN FEATURES HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN EASTERLY FLOW SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY GULF
BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING, AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE
BAHAMAS GETS CLOSER LATER TUESDAY, STILL SEEMS AS THOUGH EFFECTS
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOSTLY DEALT WITH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY, AS MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE MID LEVELS LOOK
SIMILARTO MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT FROM
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR TUESDAY. THE NAM IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF OR GFS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN
PENINSULA WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WITH VCTS
ASSIGNED AT 20Z. PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OCCASIONALLY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
H5 TEMP ARE SMALLER AND HAVE WARMED RESPECTIVELY, IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY`S SOUNDING. MOISTURE AND PWAT HAVE INCREASED WITH SAL
DEPARTED OR GREATLY WEAKENED. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS,
PROBABLY AGAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY GULF SEA BREEZE.
THUS, EXPECING THE AFTERNOON TO UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS THROUGH WESTERN COLLIER AND THE COLLIER COAST. BETTER
MOISTURE HAS ELICITED MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS MORNING, AND SOME OF THESE QUICK SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE TO THE
BEACHES DURING THE REST OF TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS TODAY WITH ONLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT
21Z BUT THE TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOONER.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  90  79  89 /  20  30  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  91  81  90 /  30  30  20  30
MIAMI            81  90  80  89 /  30  30  20  30
NAPLES           77  91  77  90 /  30  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....57/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 311855
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
255 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH TUE NIGHT)...

MORE MOISTURE, IN THE FORM OF HIGHER PWATS TODAY, HAS LED TO
SOMEWHAT MORE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. ALSO, A FEW MORE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH DEEP
EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE ATLANTIC, WITH SOME CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT, EXPECTING SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND SOME EVEN CROSSING
INLAND, SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED LAST NIGHT. BASED ON OUR LOCAL
MODEL AND WINDS/OBS, WILL LET RIP CURRENT STATEMENT END AT 8P.
LAPSE RATES AND MIDLEVEL TEMPS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH MONDAY, AND
POP FORECAST AGAIN FEATURES HIGHEST VALUES ALONG THE WEST COAST.
ONCE AGAIN EASTERLY FLOW SEEMS STRONG ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY GULF
BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING, AND CANNOT RULE OUT SOME OF THE SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM CROSSING THE BEACHES
THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE ARRIVING FROM THE
BAHAMAS GETS CLOSER LATER TUESDAY, STILL SEEMS AS THOUGH EFFECTS
FROM THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOSTLY DEALT WITH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY, AS MOISTURE PROFILES IN THE MID LEVELS LOOK
SIMILARTO MONDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT FROM
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST FOR TUESDAY. THE NAM IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THIS FEATURE THAN THE ECMWF OR GFS.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 156 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN
PENINSULA WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WITH VCTS
ASSIGNED AT 20Z. PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OCCASIONALLY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
H5 TEMP ARE SMALLER AND HAVE WARMED RESPECTIVELY, IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY`S SOUNDING. MOISTURE AND PWAT HAVE INCREASED WITH SAL
DEPARTED OR GREATLY WEAKENED. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS,
PROBABLY AGAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY GULF SEA BREEZE.
THUS, EXPECING THE AFTERNOON TO UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS THROUGH WESTERN COLLIER AND THE COLLIER COAST. BETTER
MOISTURE HAS ELICITED MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS MORNING, AND SOME OF THESE QUICK SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE TO THE
BEACHES DURING THE REST OF TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS TODAY WITH ONLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT
21Z BUT THE TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOONER.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  90  79  89 /  20  30  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  91  81  90 /  30  30  20  30
MIAMI            81  90  80  89 /  30  30  20  30
NAPLES           77  91  77  90 /  30  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 311756
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN
PENINSULA WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WITH VCTS
ASSIGNED AT 20Z. PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OCCASIONALLY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
H5 TEMP ARE SMALLER AND HAVE WARMED RESPECTIVELY, IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY`S SOUNDING. MOISTURE AND PWAT HAVE INCREASED WITH SAL
DEPARTED OR GREATLY WEAKENED. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS,
PROBABLY AGAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY GULF SEA BREEZE.
THUS, EXPECING THE AFTERNOON TO UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS THROUGH WESTERN COLLIER AND THE COLLIER COAST. BETTER
MOISTURE HAS ELICITED MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS MORNING, AND SOME OF THESE QUICK SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE TO THE
BEACHES DURING THE REST OF TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS TODAY WITH ONLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT
21Z BUT THE TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOONER.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  78  89 /  20  30  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  91  80  90 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            80  90  78  89 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  91  77  90 /  10  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 311756
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
156 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...

FOR THE SHORT TERM...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS THE WESTERN
PENINSULA WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL WITH VCTS
ASSIGNED AT 20Z. PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH
OCCURRENCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DECREASE OVER NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING OCCASIONAL PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS OCCASIONALLY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
H5 TEMP ARE SMALLER AND HAVE WARMED RESPECTIVELY, IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY`S SOUNDING. MOISTURE AND PWAT HAVE INCREASED WITH SAL
DEPARTED OR GREATLY WEAKENED. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS,
PROBABLY AGAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY GULF SEA BREEZE.
THUS, EXPECING THE AFTERNOON TO UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS THROUGH WESTERN COLLIER AND THE COLLIER COAST. BETTER
MOISTURE HAS ELICITED MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS MORNING, AND SOME OF THESE QUICK SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE TO THE
BEACHES DURING THE REST OF TODAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS TODAY WITH ONLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT
21Z BUT THE TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOONER.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  78  89 /  20  30  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  91  80  90 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            80  90  78  89 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  91  77  90 /  10  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 311420
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
H5 TEMP ARE SMALLER AND HAVE WARMED RESPECTIVELY, IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY`S SOUNDING. MOISTURE AND PWAT HAVE INCREASED WITH SAL
DEPARTED OR GREATLY WEAKENED. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS,
PROBABLY AGAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY GULF SEA BREEZE.
THUS, EXPECING THE AFTERNOON TO UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS THROUGH WESTERN COLLIER AND THE COLLIER COAST. BETTER
MOISTURE HAS ELICITED MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS MORNING, AND SOME OF THESE QUICK SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE TO THE
BEACHES DURING THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS TODAY WITH ONLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT
21Z BUT THE TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOONER.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  79  90  78 /  30  20  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  80 /  30  20  30  20
MIAMI            91  80  90  78 /  30  20  30  20
NAPLES           92  76  91  77 /  50  10  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 311420
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1020 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
H5 TEMP ARE SMALLER AND HAVE WARMED RESPECTIVELY, IN COMPARISON
TO YESTERDAY`S SOUNDING. MOISTURE AND PWAT HAVE INCREASED WITH SAL
DEPARTED OR GREATLY WEAKENED. DEEP EASTERLY FLOW REMAINS,
PROBABLY AGAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO MITIGATE ANY GULF SEA BREEZE.
THUS, EXPECING THE AFTERNOON TO UNFOLD SIMILARLY TO YESTERDAY WITH
HIGHEST POPS THROUGH WESTERN COLLIER AND THE COLLIER COAST. BETTER
MOISTURE HAS ELICITED MORE SHOWERS THROUGH THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THIS MORNING, AND SOME OF THESE QUICK SHOWERS MAY SURVIVE TO THE
BEACHES DURING THE REST OF TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

UPDATE...

MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS TODAY WITH ONLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT
21Z BUT THE TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOONER.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  79  90  78 /  30  20  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  80 /  30  20  30  20
MIAMI            91  80  90  78 /  30  20  30  20
NAPLES           92  76  91  77 /  50  10  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....57/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 311156
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
756 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...

MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS TODAY WITH ONLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT
21Z BUT THE TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOONER.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  79  90  78 /  30  20  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  80 /  30  20  30  20
MIAMI            91  80  90  78 /  30  20  30  20
NAPLES           92  76  91  77 /  50  10  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 311156
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
756 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...

MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE
TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. PATCHES OF CLOUDINESS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST
TERMINALS TODAY WITH ONLY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM
TIME TO TIME. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT
21Z BUT THE TIMING MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED SOONER.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  79  90  78 /  30  20  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  80 /  30  20  30  20
MIAMI            91  80  90  78 /  30  20  30  20
NAPLES           92  76  91  77 /  50  10  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ172-173.

AM...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 310723
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
323 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.HIGHLIGHTS...

* HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE BEACHES; MODERATE
  FOR THE PALM BEACHES
* INCREASING CLOUDINESS/POTENTIALLY STORMIER WEATHER BY MIDWEEK
  WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH CONTINUES AN
EASTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME ACROSS SOUTH FL. CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC IS RESULTING IN SOME SHOWER AND LIMITED TSTORM ACTIVITY
EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ONSHORE SE
FLORIDA THIS MORNING BEFORE CONVECTION SHIFTS FOCUS TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. REFLECTED THIS EXPECTED TREND IN
THE POP FIELDS.

THE RIP CURRENT MODEL SHOWS THE RISK INCREASING TO HIGH ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, WE WILL HOIST A HIGH RISK
OF RIPS ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COAST WITH A MODERATE FOR
THE PALM BEACHES.

GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EAST OF THE BAHAMAS
CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST AND INTO THE BAHAMAS MON-TUE THEN INTO
OUR ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS SOUTH FL WED-THU ALONG WITH A WEAK
LOW LEVEL REFLECTION/TROUGH. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MORE UNSETTLED
PERIOD BY MID WEEK. HOWEVER, BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE FOCUS OF
CONVERGENCE/STORMINESS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND OUT LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS. SO IT IS UNCERTAIN JUST HOW STORMY IT COULD BECOME ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THIS FEATURE. ONE FACTOR WHICH HAS OUR
INTEREST IS THE COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER
LEVEL LOW WITH MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWING H5 TEMPS LOWERING INTO THE
-8C TO -9.5C RANGE WED NIGHT-THU NIGHT...WHICH WOULD BE THE
COLDEST H5 READINGS FOR THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER LOCALLY.
INCREASED CLOUDINESS WOULD BE A NEGATING FACTOR FOR ACTIVE
TSTORMS, BUT IF WE END UP WITH GOOD CONVERGENCE (ESPECIALLY
ATLANTIC COAST AT NIGHT...SOMETHING TO WATCH) THEN IT COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH THE
WEEK, THOUGH DID CUT POPS DOWN SLIGHTLY EAST COAST MON-TUE BEFORE
TRENDING UP MID-LATE WEEK. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...AN EAST SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEEK`S
END AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND THE DEEP SOUTH. AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS WED NIGHT-THU, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASED STORMINESS ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS THEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  79  90  78 /  30  20  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  80 /  30  20  30  20
MIAMI            91  80  90  78 /  30  20  30  20
NAPLES           92  76  91  77 /  50  10  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE BEACHES
THROUGH 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 310518 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
118 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
TODAY KEEPING A EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO THE
WIND DIRECTION WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS AFTER 13Z TODAY FOR
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WIND DIRECTION
WILL ALSO REMAIN EASTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS UNTIL 14Z THEN INCREASE
TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD BE A LATE DAY WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE THAT DEVELOPS WHICH COULD PUSH INTO THE KAPF TAF SITE. SO
WILL SHOW A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION 5 TO 10 KNOTS AFTER 21Z TODAY.

THERE HAS BEEN A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS
MORNING WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE . SO WILL
ADD VCSH FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THROUGH 13Z...THEN GO DRY
FOR REST OF TODAY. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY
FOR MOST OF TODAY BUT COULD SEE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATE TODAY
WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE. SO WILL ADD VCTS FOR KAPF TAF SITE
AFTER 21Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING INTO TODAY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 943 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME
MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA.
THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
ASHORE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
BRIEF AND GENERALLY DIMINISH AS IT CONTINUES INLAND. THE
CONVECTION IMPACTING THE GULF COAST REGION TOWARD TAMPA THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT MAX ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
OUR LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE COAST OVER THE GULF
WATERS. 85/

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
A LITTLE VORT MAX WAS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION AS THE VORT MOVES OFF TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...THE
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS BY NOON ON SUNDAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST WITH A GUSTY AT TIMES EASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NEVER TURN OFFSHORE AT NAPLES, ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH HAVE POPPED UP OVER COLLIER AND HENDRY. HOWEVER, ANY
ACTIVITY TODAY IS FIGHTING DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS AND SAL CLOSER
TO THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF A RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND
DECENT LAPSE RATES, THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR GUSTY
WINDS/HAIL AS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP NAPLES/WESTERN
HENDRY/COLLIER OR THE LAKE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THE SAL IS GONE INTO SUNDAY, AIRMASS REMAINS DRY WITH
SUBSIDENCE THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST INTO TUESDAY. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WHOLE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, PWATS NEVER RISE ABOVE 1.75" PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
NAPLES/WESTERN CWA/INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER POPS, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST BOTH DAYS. MONDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST. DESPITE
THE MEAGER MOISTURE IN THE MIDLEVELS, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BEACHES MONDAY MORNING, AS THE GFS
IS RATHER BULLISH, IN CONTRAST WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE.
WITH NOT MUCH COVERAGE EXPECTED, THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD END
HOT, BUT WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SEA BREEZE TO PROVIDE A TOUCH
OF RELIEF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ANY OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
MENTION IN THE TAF`S AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 20Z AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...

SAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING EVIDENT WITH SOME HAZY SKIES ALSO OBSERVED TODAY. LAPSE
RATES AND H5 TEMP ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORMS, HOWEVER 12Z MFL
PWAT WAS 1.49". CONSIDERING THE LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPS WERE
SIMILAR YESTERDAY AND ACTIVITY WAS SCATTERED AT BEST ALONG THE
EAST COAST, EXPECTING THE SAME OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THE CITIES.
MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH STORMS FIRING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR NAPLES
AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES, CUSTOMARY WITH
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON THE HEIGHT OF THE FREEZING LEVEL AND
LAPSE RATES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS NAPLES/WESTERN HENDRY/WESTERN
COLLIER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TERMINAL KPBI COULD EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE...VCTS ASSIGNED TO ALL EAST COAST
TERMINALS AT 16Z. WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY VERY BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

FOR TERMINAL KAPF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULTANT MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS...THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP WITH THE KAPF TAF WIND FORECAST INDICATING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT 18Z.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAX HEAT INDICES HITTING 102-108 TODAY
* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* STRONG TSTORM POTENTIAL WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST THIS
  AFTERNOON

DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDICES ARE STILL IN THE 90S AT THIS EARLY MORNING HOUR
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS WHERE IT HAS NOT RAINED.
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
TODAY. LIDAR AND SOUNDING DATA SHOW THAT THIS SAL IS RATHER
LOW...MAXED AT 1 KM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LAYER WITH A CAP
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/DRY AIR ABOVE IT. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A
STRONG SAL SO IT WON`T LIMIT CONVECTION AS WOULD A STRONG EPISODE.
AS SUCH, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
SAL (STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE AN INVERSION) AND H5 TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR -8C...WE COULD AGAIN HAVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST REGION WHERE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE BEST...THOUGH NOT OPTIMAL. THAT`S ONE NEGATING
FACTOR FOR ROBUST CONVECTION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE
EASTERLY AT NEAR 15 KT WHICH LIKELY WILL PREVENT A FULL BLOWN GULF
SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
CONVERGENCE WITH WIND FLOW VEERING ALONG THE GULF COAST. WILL
ORIENT POPS FROM ISOLATED EAST COAST TO SCATTERED CATEGORY GULF
COAST...WHERE FREQUENT LIGHTNING/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MAX HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 102-108F RANGE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...DUE TO LOWER TO MID 90S MAX TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

THE SAL WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA MOVES THIS AREA WESTWARD ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. A DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. MODEL
CONSENSUS TAKES THIS TO THE BAHAMAS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WHILE OPENING UP. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NW
AND ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK....LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN. GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING POPS
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES...BUT
IT LOOKS UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND AS SUCH FOLLOWED THE
POP TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL PREVAIL LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWEST OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN WORK INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
BE PUT IN FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z TODAY BEFORE
GOING DRY FOR REST OF TODAY.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AFTER
14Z. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BUT COULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z WHEN THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP. SO WILL ALSO PUT IN VCTS FOR KAPF TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. /BNB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  92  78  89 /  10  40  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  92  79  90 /  10  30  20  50
MIAMI            81  91  79  90 /  10  30  20  50
NAPLES           78  93  77  90 /  20  60  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 310143
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME
MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA.
THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
ASHORE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
BRIEF AND GENERALLY DIMINISH AS IT CONTINUES INLAND. THE
CONVECTION IMPACTING THE GULF COAST REGION TOWARD TAMPA THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT MAX ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
OUR LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE COAST OVER THE GULF
WATERS. 85/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
A LITTLE VORT MAX WAS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION AS THE VORT MOVES OFF TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...THE
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS BY NOON ON SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST WITH A GUSTY AT TIMES EASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NEVER TURN OFFSHORE AT NAPLES, ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH HAVE POPPED UP OVER COLLIER AND HENDRY. HOWEVER, ANY
ACTIVITY TODAY IS FIGHTING DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS AND SAL CLOSER
TO THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF A RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND
DECENT LAPSE RATES, THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR GUSTY
WINDS/HAIL AS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP NAPLES/WESTERN
HENDRY/COLLIER OR THE LAKE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THE SAL IS GONE INTO SUNDAY, AIRMASS REMAINS DRY WITH
SUBSIDENCE THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST INTO TUESDAY. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WHOLE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, PWATS NEVER RISE ABOVE 1.75" PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
NAPLES/WESTERN CWA/INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER POPS, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST BOTH DAYS. MONDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST. DESPITE
THE MEAGER MOISTURE IN THE MIDLEVELS, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BEACHES MONDAY MORNING, AS THE GFS
IS RATHER BULLISH, IN CONTRAST WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE.
WITH NOT MUCH COVERAGE EXPECTED, THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD END
HOT, BUT WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SEA BREEZE TO PROVIDE A TOUCH
OF RELIEF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ANY OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
MENTION IN THE TAF`S AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 20Z AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...

SAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING EVIDENT WITH SOME HAZY SKIES ALSO OBSERVED TODAY. LAPSE
RATES AND H5 TEMP ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORMS, HOWEVER 12Z MFL
PWAT WAS 1.49". CONSIDERING THE LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPS WERE
SIMILAR YESTERDAY AND ACTIVITY WAS SCATTERED AT BEST ALONG THE
EAST COAST, EXPECTING THE SAME OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THE CITIES.
MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH STORMS FIRING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR NAPLES
AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES, CUSTOMARY WITH
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON THE HEIGHT OF THE FREEZING LEVEL AND
LAPSE RATES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS NAPLES/WESTERN HENDRY/WESTERN
COLLIER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TERMINAL KPBI COULD EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE...VCTS ASSIGNED TO ALL EAST COAST
TERMINALS AT 16Z. WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY VERY BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

FOR TERMINAL KAPF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULTANT MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS...THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP WITH THE KAPF TAF WIND FORECAST INDICATING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT 18Z.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAX HEAT INDICES HITTING 102-108 TODAY
* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* STRONG TSTORM POTENTIAL WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST THIS
  AFTERNOON

DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDICES ARE STILL IN THE 90S AT THIS EARLY MORNING HOUR
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS WHERE IT HAS NOT RAINED.
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
TODAY. LIDAR AND SOUNDING DATA SHOW THAT THIS SAL IS RATHER
LOW...MAXED AT 1 KM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LAYER WITH A CAP
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/DRY AIR ABOVE IT. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A
STRONG SAL SO IT WON`T LIMIT CONVECTION AS WOULD A STRONG EPISODE.
AS SUCH, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
SAL (STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE AN INVERSION) AND H5 TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR -8C...WE COULD AGAIN HAVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST REGION WHERE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE BEST...THOUGH NOT OPTIMAL. THAT`S ONE NEGATING
FACTOR FOR ROBUST CONVECTION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE
EASTERLY AT NEAR 15 KT WHICH LIKELY WILL PREVENT A FULL BLOWN GULF
SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
CONVERGENCE WITH WIND FLOW VEERING ALONG THE GULF COAST. WILL
ORIENT POPS FROM ISOLATED EAST COAST TO SCATTERED CATEGORY GULF
COAST...WHERE FREQUENT LIGHTNING/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MAX HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 102-108F RANGE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...DUE TO LOWER TO MID 90S MAX TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

THE SAL WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA MOVES THIS AREA WESTWARD ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. A DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. MODEL
CONSENSUS TAKES THIS TO THE BAHAMAS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WHILE OPENING UP. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NW
AND ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK....LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN. GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING POPS
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES...BUT
IT LOOKS UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND AS SUCH FOLLOWED THE
POP TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL PREVAIL LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWEST OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN WORK INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
BE PUT IN FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z TODAY BEFORE
GOING DRY FOR REST OF TODAY.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AFTER
14Z. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BUT COULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z WHEN THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP. SO WILL ALSO PUT IN VCTS FOR KAPF TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. /BNB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  80 /  20  10  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  82  93  82 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            92  81  92  81 /  20  10  20  10
NAPLES           95  78  92  78 /  60  10  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 310143
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
943 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
NO MAJOR UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED THIS EVENING OUTSIDE OF SOME
MINOR CHANGES BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE AREA.
THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SOME SHOWERS DEVELOPING AND SPREADING
ASHORE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
BRIEF AND GENERALLY DIMINISH AS IT CONTINUES INLAND. THE
CONVECTION IMPACTING THE GULF COAST REGION TOWARD TAMPA THAT IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK VORT MAX ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
OUR LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES OFF THE COAST OVER THE GULF
WATERS. 85/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...
A LITTLE VORT MAX WAS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION AS THE VORT MOVES OFF TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...THE
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS BY NOON ON SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST WITH A GUSTY AT TIMES EASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NEVER TURN OFFSHORE AT NAPLES, ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH HAVE POPPED UP OVER COLLIER AND HENDRY. HOWEVER, ANY
ACTIVITY TODAY IS FIGHTING DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS AND SAL CLOSER
TO THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF A RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND
DECENT LAPSE RATES, THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR GUSTY
WINDS/HAIL AS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP NAPLES/WESTERN
HENDRY/COLLIER OR THE LAKE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THE SAL IS GONE INTO SUNDAY, AIRMASS REMAINS DRY WITH
SUBSIDENCE THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST INTO TUESDAY. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WHOLE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, PWATS NEVER RISE ABOVE 1.75" PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
NAPLES/WESTERN CWA/INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER POPS, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST BOTH DAYS. MONDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST. DESPITE
THE MEAGER MOISTURE IN THE MIDLEVELS, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BEACHES MONDAY MORNING, AS THE GFS
IS RATHER BULLISH, IN CONTRAST WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE.
WITH NOT MUCH COVERAGE EXPECTED, THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD END
HOT, BUT WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SEA BREEZE TO PROVIDE A TOUCH
OF RELIEF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ANY OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
MENTION IN THE TAF`S AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 20Z AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...

SAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING EVIDENT WITH SOME HAZY SKIES ALSO OBSERVED TODAY. LAPSE
RATES AND H5 TEMP ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORMS, HOWEVER 12Z MFL
PWAT WAS 1.49". CONSIDERING THE LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPS WERE
SIMILAR YESTERDAY AND ACTIVITY WAS SCATTERED AT BEST ALONG THE
EAST COAST, EXPECTING THE SAME OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THE CITIES.
MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH STORMS FIRING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR NAPLES
AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES, CUSTOMARY WITH
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON THE HEIGHT OF THE FREEZING LEVEL AND
LAPSE RATES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS NAPLES/WESTERN HENDRY/WESTERN
COLLIER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TERMINAL KPBI COULD EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE...VCTS ASSIGNED TO ALL EAST COAST
TERMINALS AT 16Z. WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY VERY BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

FOR TERMINAL KAPF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULTANT MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS...THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP WITH THE KAPF TAF WIND FORECAST INDICATING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT 18Z.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAX HEAT INDICES HITTING 102-108 TODAY
* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* STRONG TSTORM POTENTIAL WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST THIS
  AFTERNOON

DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDICES ARE STILL IN THE 90S AT THIS EARLY MORNING HOUR
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS WHERE IT HAS NOT RAINED.
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
TODAY. LIDAR AND SOUNDING DATA SHOW THAT THIS SAL IS RATHER
LOW...MAXED AT 1 KM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LAYER WITH A CAP
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/DRY AIR ABOVE IT. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A
STRONG SAL SO IT WON`T LIMIT CONVECTION AS WOULD A STRONG EPISODE.
AS SUCH, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
SAL (STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE AN INVERSION) AND H5 TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR -8C...WE COULD AGAIN HAVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST REGION WHERE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE BEST...THOUGH NOT OPTIMAL. THAT`S ONE NEGATING
FACTOR FOR ROBUST CONVECTION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE
EASTERLY AT NEAR 15 KT WHICH LIKELY WILL PREVENT A FULL BLOWN GULF
SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
CONVERGENCE WITH WIND FLOW VEERING ALONG THE GULF COAST. WILL
ORIENT POPS FROM ISOLATED EAST COAST TO SCATTERED CATEGORY GULF
COAST...WHERE FREQUENT LIGHTNING/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MAX HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 102-108F RANGE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...DUE TO LOWER TO MID 90S MAX TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

THE SAL WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA MOVES THIS AREA WESTWARD ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. A DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. MODEL
CONSENSUS TAKES THIS TO THE BAHAMAS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WHILE OPENING UP. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NW
AND ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK....LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN. GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING POPS
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES...BUT
IT LOOKS UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND AS SUCH FOLLOWED THE
POP TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL PREVAIL LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWEST OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN WORK INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
BE PUT IN FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z TODAY BEFORE
GOING DRY FOR REST OF TODAY.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AFTER
14Z. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BUT COULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z WHEN THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP. SO WILL ALSO PUT IN VCTS FOR KAPF TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. /BNB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  80  92  80 /  20  10  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  82  93  82 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            92  81  92  81 /  20  10  20  10
NAPLES           95  78  92  78 /  60  10  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 302326
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
726 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
A LITTLE VORT MAX WAS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION AS THE VORT MOVES OFF TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...THE
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS BY NOON ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST WITH A GUSTY AT TIMES EASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NEVER TURN OFFSHORE AT NAPLES, ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH HAVE POPPED UP OVER COLLIER AND HENDRY. HOWEVER, ANY
ACTIVITY TODAY IS FIGHTING DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS AND SAL CLOSER
TO THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF A RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND
DECENT LAPSE RATES, THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR GUSTY
WINDS/HAIL AS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP NAPLES/WESTERN
HENDRY/COLLIER OR THE LAKE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THE SAL IS GONE INTO SUNDAY, AIRMASS REMAINS DRY WITH
SUBSIDENCE THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST INTO TUESDAY. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WHOLE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, PWATS NEVER RISE ABOVE 1.75" PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
NAPLES/WESTERN CWA/INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER POPS, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST BOTH DAYS. MONDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST. DESPITE
THE MEAGER MOISTURE IN THE MIDLEVELS, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BEACHES MONDAY MORNING, AS THE GFS
IS RATHER BULLISH, IN CONTRAST WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE.
WITH NOT MUCH COVERAGE EXPECTED, THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD END
HOT, BUT WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SEA BREEZE TO PROVIDE A TOUCH
OF RELIEF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ANY OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
MENTION IN THE TAF`S AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 20Z AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...

SAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING EVIDENT WITH SOME HAZY SKIES ALSO OBSERVED TODAY. LAPSE
RATES AND H5 TEMP ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORMS, HOWEVER 12Z MFL
PWAT WAS 1.49". CONSIDERING THE LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPS WERE
SIMILAR YESTERDAY AND ACTIVITY WAS SCATTERED AT BEST ALONG THE
EAST COAST, EXPECTING THE SAME OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THE CITIES.
MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH STORMS FIRING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR NAPLES
AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES, CUSTOMARY WITH
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON THE HEIGHT OF THE FREEZING LEVEL AND
LAPSE RATES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS NAPLES/WESTERN HENDRY/WESTERN
COLLIER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TERMINAL KPBI COULD EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE...VCTS ASSIGNED TO ALL EAST COAST
TERMINALS AT 16Z. WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY VERY BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

FOR TERMINAL KAPF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULTANT MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS...THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP WITH THE KAPF TAF WIND FORECAST INDICATING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT 18Z.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAX HEAT INDICES HITTING 102-108 TODAY
* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* STRONG TSTORM POTENTIAL WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST THIS
  AFTERNOON

DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDICES ARE STILL IN THE 90S AT THIS EARLY MORNING HOUR
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS WHERE IT HAS NOT RAINED.
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
TODAY. LIDAR AND SOUNDING DATA SHOW THAT THIS SAL IS RATHER
LOW...MAXED AT 1 KM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LAYER WITH A CAP
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/DRY AIR ABOVE IT. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A
STRONG SAL SO IT WON`T LIMIT CONVECTION AS WOULD A STRONG EPISODE.
AS SUCH, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
SAL (STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE AN INVERSION) AND H5 TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR -8C...WE COULD AGAIN HAVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST REGION WHERE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE BEST...THOUGH NOT OPTIMAL. THAT`S ONE NEGATING
FACTOR FOR ROBUST CONVECTION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE
EASTERLY AT NEAR 15 KT WHICH LIKELY WILL PREVENT A FULL BLOWN GULF
SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
CONVERGENCE WITH WIND FLOW VEERING ALONG THE GULF COAST. WILL
ORIENT POPS FROM ISOLATED EAST COAST TO SCATTERED CATEGORY GULF
COAST...WHERE FREQUENT LIGHTNING/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MAX HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 102-108F RANGE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...DUE TO LOWER TO MID 90S MAX TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

THE SAL WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA MOVES THIS AREA WESTWARD ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. A DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. MODEL
CONSENSUS TAKES THIS TO THE BAHAMAS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WHILE OPENING UP. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NW
AND ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK....LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN. GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING POPS
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES...BUT
IT LOOKS UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND AS SUCH FOLLOWED THE
POP TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL PREVAIL LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWEST OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN WORK INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
BE PUT IN FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z TODAY BEFORE
GOING DRY FOR REST OF TODAY.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AFTER
14Z. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BUT COULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z WHEN THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP. SO WILL ALSO PUT IN VCTS FOR KAPF TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. /BNB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  92  80  92 /  10  30  10  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  93  82  92 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            81  92  81  91 /  10  20  10  30
NAPLES           78  92  78  93 /  10  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 302326
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
726 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...
A LITTLE VORT MAX WAS MOVING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION AS THE VORT MOVES OFF TO THE WEST. ALTHOUGH A
FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...THE
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAFS. EAST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE
TO 10-15 KNOTS BY NOON ON SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 246 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST WITH A GUSTY AT TIMES EASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NEVER TURN OFFSHORE AT NAPLES, ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH HAVE POPPED UP OVER COLLIER AND HENDRY. HOWEVER, ANY
ACTIVITY TODAY IS FIGHTING DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS AND SAL CLOSER
TO THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF A RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND
DECENT LAPSE RATES, THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR GUSTY
WINDS/HAIL AS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP NAPLES/WESTERN
HENDRY/COLLIER OR THE LAKE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THE SAL IS GONE INTO SUNDAY, AIRMASS REMAINS DRY WITH
SUBSIDENCE THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST INTO TUESDAY. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WHOLE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, PWATS NEVER RISE ABOVE 1.75" PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
NAPLES/WESTERN CWA/INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER POPS, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST BOTH DAYS. MONDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST. DESPITE
THE MEAGER MOISTURE IN THE MIDLEVELS, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BEACHES MONDAY MORNING, AS THE GFS
IS RATHER BULLISH, IN CONTRAST WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE.
WITH NOT MUCH COVERAGE EXPECTED, THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD END
HOT, BUT WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SEA BREEZE TO PROVIDE A TOUCH
OF RELIEF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ANY OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
MENTION IN THE TAF`S AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 20Z AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...

SAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING EVIDENT WITH SOME HAZY SKIES ALSO OBSERVED TODAY. LAPSE
RATES AND H5 TEMP ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORMS, HOWEVER 12Z MFL
PWAT WAS 1.49". CONSIDERING THE LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPS WERE
SIMILAR YESTERDAY AND ACTIVITY WAS SCATTERED AT BEST ALONG THE
EAST COAST, EXPECTING THE SAME OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THE CITIES.
MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH STORMS FIRING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR NAPLES
AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES, CUSTOMARY WITH
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON THE HEIGHT OF THE FREEZING LEVEL AND
LAPSE RATES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS NAPLES/WESTERN HENDRY/WESTERN
COLLIER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TERMINAL KPBI COULD EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE...VCTS ASSIGNED TO ALL EAST COAST
TERMINALS AT 16Z. WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY VERY BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

FOR TERMINAL KAPF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULTANT MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS...THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP WITH THE KAPF TAF WIND FORECAST INDICATING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT 18Z.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAX HEAT INDICES HITTING 102-108 TODAY
* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* STRONG TSTORM POTENTIAL WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST THIS
  AFTERNOON

DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDICES ARE STILL IN THE 90S AT THIS EARLY MORNING HOUR
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS WHERE IT HAS NOT RAINED.
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
TODAY. LIDAR AND SOUNDING DATA SHOW THAT THIS SAL IS RATHER
LOW...MAXED AT 1 KM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LAYER WITH A CAP
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/DRY AIR ABOVE IT. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A
STRONG SAL SO IT WON`T LIMIT CONVECTION AS WOULD A STRONG EPISODE.
AS SUCH, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
SAL (STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE AN INVERSION) AND H5 TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR -8C...WE COULD AGAIN HAVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST REGION WHERE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE BEST...THOUGH NOT OPTIMAL. THAT`S ONE NEGATING
FACTOR FOR ROBUST CONVECTION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE
EASTERLY AT NEAR 15 KT WHICH LIKELY WILL PREVENT A FULL BLOWN GULF
SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
CONVERGENCE WITH WIND FLOW VEERING ALONG THE GULF COAST. WILL
ORIENT POPS FROM ISOLATED EAST COAST TO SCATTERED CATEGORY GULF
COAST...WHERE FREQUENT LIGHTNING/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MAX HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 102-108F RANGE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...DUE TO LOWER TO MID 90S MAX TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

THE SAL WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA MOVES THIS AREA WESTWARD ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. A DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. MODEL
CONSENSUS TAKES THIS TO THE BAHAMAS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WHILE OPENING UP. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NW
AND ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK....LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN. GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING POPS
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES...BUT
IT LOOKS UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND AS SUCH FOLLOWED THE
POP TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL PREVAIL LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWEST OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN WORK INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
BE PUT IN FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z TODAY BEFORE
GOING DRY FOR REST OF TODAY.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AFTER
14Z. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BUT COULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z WHEN THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP. SO WILL ALSO PUT IN VCTS FOR KAPF TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. /BNB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  92  80  92 /  10  30  10  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  93  82  92 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            81  92  81  91 /  10  20  10  30
NAPLES           78  92  78  93 /  10  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301846
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
246 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST WITH A GUSTY AT TIMES EASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NEVER TURN OFFSHORE AT NAPLES, ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH HAVE POPPED UP OVER COLLIER AND HENDRY. HOWEVER, ANY
ACTIVITY TODAY IS FIGHTING DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS AND SAL CLOSER
TO THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF A RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND
DECENT LAPSE RATES, THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR GUSTY
WINDS/HAIL AS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP NAPLES/WESTERN
HENDRY/COLLIER OR THE LAKE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THE SAL IS GONE INTO SUNDAY, AIRMASS REMAINS DRY WITH
SUBSIDENCE THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST INTO TUESDAY. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WHOLE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, PWATS NEVER RISE ABOVE 1.75" PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
NAPLES/WESTERN CWA/INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER POPS, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST BOTH DAYS. MONDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST. DESPITE
THE MEAGER MOISTURE IN THE MIDLEVELS, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BEACHES MONDAY MORNING, AS THE GFS
IS RATHER BULLISH, IN CONTRAST WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE.
WITH NOT MUCH COVERAGE EXPECTED, THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD END
HOT, BUT WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SEA BREEZE TO PROVIDE A TOUCH
OF RELIEF.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ANY OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
MENTION IN THE TAF`S AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 20Z AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...

SAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING EVIDENT WITH SOME HAZY SKIES ALSO OBSERVED TODAY. LAPSE
RATES AND H5 TEMP ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORMS, HOWEVER 12Z MFL
PWAT WAS 1.49". CONSIDERING THE LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPS WERE
SIMILAR YESTERDAY AND ACTIVITY WAS SCATTERED AT BEST ALONG THE
EAST COAST, EXPECTING THE SAME OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THE CITIES.
MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH STORMS FIRING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR NAPLES
AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES, CUSTOMARY WITH
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON THE HEIGHT OF THE FREEZING LEVEL AND
LAPSE RATES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS NAPLES/WESTERN HENDRY/WESTERN
COLLIER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TERMINAL KPBI COULD EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE...VCTS ASSIGNED TO ALL EAST COAST
TERMINALS AT 16Z. WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY VERY BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

FOR TERMINAL KAPF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULTANT MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS...THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP WITH THE KAPF TAF WIND FORECAST INDICATING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT 18Z.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAX HEAT INDICES HITTING 102-108 TODAY
* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* STRONG TSTORM POTENTIAL WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST THIS
  AFTERNOON

DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDICES ARE STILL IN THE 90S AT THIS EARLY MORNING HOUR
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS WHERE IT HAS NOT RAINED.
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
TODAY. LIDAR AND SOUNDING DATA SHOW THAT THIS SAL IS RATHER
LOW...MAXED AT 1 KM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LAYER WITH A CAP
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/DRY AIR ABOVE IT. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A
STRONG SAL SO IT WON`T LIMIT CONVECTION AS WOULD A STRONG EPISODE.
AS SUCH, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
SAL (STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE AN INVERSION) AND H5 TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR -8C...WE COULD AGAIN HAVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST REGION WHERE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE BEST...THOUGH NOT OPTIMAL. THAT`S ONE NEGATING
FACTOR FOR ROBUST CONVECTION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE
EASTERLY AT NEAR 15 KT WHICH LIKELY WILL PREVENT A FULL BLOWN GULF
SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
CONVERGENCE WITH WIND FLOW VEERING ALONG THE GULF COAST. WILL
ORIENT POPS FROM ISOLATED EAST COAST TO SCATTERED CATEGORY GULF
COAST...WHERE FREQUENT LIGHTNING/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MAX HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 102-108F RANGE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...DUE TO LOWER TO MID 90S MAX TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

THE SAL WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA MOVES THIS AREA WESTWARD ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. A DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. MODEL
CONSENSUS TAKES THIS TO THE BAHAMAS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WHILE OPENING UP. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NW
AND ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK....LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN. GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING POPS
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES...BUT
IT LOOKS UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND AS SUCH FOLLOWED THE
POP TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL PREVAIL LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWEST OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN WORK INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
BE PUT IN FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z TODAY BEFORE
GOING DRY FOR REST OF TODAY.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AFTER
14Z. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BUT COULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z WHEN THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP. SO WILL ALSO PUT IN VCTS FOR KAPF TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. /BNB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  79  90 /  20  30  10  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  40
MIAMI            80  90  80  90 /  20  20  10  40
NAPLES           77  92  77  91 /  20  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301846
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
246 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...

FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE ACROSS THE WEST
COAST WITH A GUSTY AT TIMES EASTERLY BREEZE ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY NEVER TURN OFFSHORE AT NAPLES, ENOUGH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL EXIST FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH HAVE POPPED UP OVER COLLIER AND HENDRY. HOWEVER, ANY
ACTIVITY TODAY IS FIGHTING DRY AIR IN THE MIDLEVELS AND SAL CLOSER
TO THE GROUND. BECAUSE OF A RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVEL AND
DECENT LAPSE RATES, THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR GUSTY
WINDS/HAIL AS A STRONGER STORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP NAPLES/WESTERN
HENDRY/COLLIER OR THE LAKE REGION.

ALTHOUGH THE SAL IS GONE INTO SUNDAY, AIRMASS REMAINS DRY WITH
SUBSIDENCE THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PARKED OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US. NOT EXPECTING MUCH CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM, UNTIL THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS TO THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN GULF COAST INTO TUESDAY. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE BAHAMAS INCREASING
PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE WHOLE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY, PWATS NEVER RISE ABOVE 1.75" PER MODEL
SOUNDINGS WITH DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. THIS SHOULD KEEP
NAPLES/WESTERN CWA/INTERIOR WITH THE HIGHER POPS, WITH ONLY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS EAST COAST BOTH DAYS. MONDAY WILL
FEATURE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ACTIVITY ALONG THE EAST COAST. DESPITE
THE MEAGER MOISTURE IN THE MIDLEVELS, STILL CAN`T RULE OUT SOME
SHOWERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS, POSSIBLY CROSSING THE BEACHES MONDAY MORNING, AS THE GFS
IS RATHER BULLISH, IN CONTRAST WITH THE REST OF THE MODEL SUITE.
WITH NOT MUCH COVERAGE EXPECTED, THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD END
HOT, BUT WITH A PERSISTENT EASTERLY SEA BREEZE TO PROVIDE A TOUCH
OF RELIEF.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 151 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ANY OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
MENTION IN THE TAF`S AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 20Z AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...

SAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING EVIDENT WITH SOME HAZY SKIES ALSO OBSERVED TODAY. LAPSE
RATES AND H5 TEMP ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORMS, HOWEVER 12Z MFL
PWAT WAS 1.49". CONSIDERING THE LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPS WERE
SIMILAR YESTERDAY AND ACTIVITY WAS SCATTERED AT BEST ALONG THE
EAST COAST, EXPECTING THE SAME OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THE CITIES.
MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH STORMS FIRING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR NAPLES
AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES, CUSTOMARY WITH
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON THE HEIGHT OF THE FREEZING LEVEL AND
LAPSE RATES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS NAPLES/WESTERN HENDRY/WESTERN
COLLIER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TERMINAL KPBI COULD EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE...VCTS ASSIGNED TO ALL EAST COAST
TERMINALS AT 16Z. WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY VERY BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

FOR TERMINAL KAPF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULTANT MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS...THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP WITH THE KAPF TAF WIND FORECAST INDICATING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT 18Z.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAX HEAT INDICES HITTING 102-108 TODAY
* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* STRONG TSTORM POTENTIAL WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST THIS
  AFTERNOON

DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDICES ARE STILL IN THE 90S AT THIS EARLY MORNING HOUR
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS WHERE IT HAS NOT RAINED.
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
TODAY. LIDAR AND SOUNDING DATA SHOW THAT THIS SAL IS RATHER
LOW...MAXED AT 1 KM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LAYER WITH A CAP
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/DRY AIR ABOVE IT. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A
STRONG SAL SO IT WON`T LIMIT CONVECTION AS WOULD A STRONG EPISODE.
AS SUCH, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
SAL (STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE AN INVERSION) AND H5 TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR -8C...WE COULD AGAIN HAVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST REGION WHERE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE BEST...THOUGH NOT OPTIMAL. THAT`S ONE NEGATING
FACTOR FOR ROBUST CONVECTION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE
EASTERLY AT NEAR 15 KT WHICH LIKELY WILL PREVENT A FULL BLOWN GULF
SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
CONVERGENCE WITH WIND FLOW VEERING ALONG THE GULF COAST. WILL
ORIENT POPS FROM ISOLATED EAST COAST TO SCATTERED CATEGORY GULF
COAST...WHERE FREQUENT LIGHTNING/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MAX HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 102-108F RANGE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...DUE TO LOWER TO MID 90S MAX TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

THE SAL WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA MOVES THIS AREA WESTWARD ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. A DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. MODEL
CONSENSUS TAKES THIS TO THE BAHAMAS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WHILE OPENING UP. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NW
AND ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK....LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN. GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING POPS
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES...BUT
IT LOOKS UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND AS SUCH FOLLOWED THE
POP TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL PREVAIL LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWEST OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN WORK INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
BE PUT IN FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z TODAY BEFORE
GOING DRY FOR REST OF TODAY.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AFTER
14Z. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BUT COULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z WHEN THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP. SO WILL ALSO PUT IN VCTS FOR KAPF TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. /BNB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  79  90 /  20  30  10  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  40
MIAMI            80  90  80  90 /  20  20  10  40
NAPLES           77  92  77  91 /  20  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....57/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301751
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
151 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...

THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ANY OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
MENTION IN THE TAF`S AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 20Z AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...

SAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING EVIDENT WITH SOME HAZY SKIES ALSO OBSERVED TODAY. LAPSE
RATES AND H5 TEMP ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORMS, HOWEVER 12Z MFL
PWAT WAS 1.49". CONSIDERING THE LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPS WERE
SIMILAR YESTERDAY AND ACTIVITY WAS SCATTERED AT BEST ALONG THE
EAST COAST, EXPECTING THE SAME OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THE CITIES.
MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH STORMS FIRING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR NAPLES
AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES, CUSTOMARY WITH
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON THE HEIGHT OF THE FREEZING LEVEL AND
LAPSE RATES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS NAPLES/WESTERN HENDRY/WESTERN
COLLIER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TERMINAL KPBI COULD EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE...VCTS ASSIGNED TO ALL EAST COAST
TERMINALS AT 16Z. WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY VERY BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

FOR TERMINAL KAPF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULTANT MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS...THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP WITH THE KAPF TAF WIND FORECAST INDICATING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT 18Z.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAX HEAT INDICES HITTING 102-108 TODAY
* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* STRONG TSTORM POTENTIAL WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST THIS
  AFTERNOON

DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDICES ARE STILL IN THE 90S AT THIS EARLY MORNING HOUR
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS WHERE IT HAS NOT RAINED.
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
TODAY. LIDAR AND SOUNDING DATA SHOW THAT THIS SAL IS RATHER
LOW...MAXED AT 1 KM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LAYER WITH A CAP
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/DRY AIR ABOVE IT. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A
STRONG SAL SO IT WON`T LIMIT CONVECTION AS WOULD A STRONG EPISODE.
AS SUCH, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
SAL (STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE AN INVERSION) AND H5 TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR -8C...WE COULD AGAIN HAVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST REGION WHERE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE BEST...THOUGH NOT OPTIMAL. THAT`S ONE NEGATING
FACTOR FOR ROBUST CONVECTION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE
EASTERLY AT NEAR 15 KT WHICH LIKELY WILL PREVENT A FULL BLOWN GULF
SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
CONVERGENCE WITH WIND FLOW VEERING ALONG THE GULF COAST. WILL
ORIENT POPS FROM ISOLATED EAST COAST TO SCATTERED CATEGORY GULF
COAST...WHERE FREQUENT LIGHTNING/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MAX HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 102-108F RANGE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...DUE TO LOWER TO MID 90S MAX TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

THE SAL WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA MOVES THIS AREA WESTWARD ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. A DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. MODEL
CONSENSUS TAKES THIS TO THE BAHAMAS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WHILE OPENING UP. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NW
AND ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK....LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN. GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING POPS
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES...BUT
IT LOOKS UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND AS SUCH FOLLOWED THE
POP TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL PREVAIL LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWEST OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN WORK INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
BE PUT IN FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z TODAY BEFORE
GOING DRY FOR REST OF TODAY.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AFTER
14Z. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BUT COULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z WHEN THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP. SO WILL ALSO PUT IN VCTS FOR KAPF TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. /BNB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  79  90 /  20  30  10  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  40
MIAMI            80  90  80  90 /  20  20  10  40
NAPLES           77  92  77  91 /  20  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301751
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
151 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.AVIATION...

THE THREAT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS FOR ANY OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS APPEARS TO HAVE DIMINISHED THIS AFTERNOON WITH NO
MENTION IN THE TAF`S AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THAT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
ASSIGNED VCTS AT 20Z AND BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH OCCURRENCE OF ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1036 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

UPDATE...

SAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE LOWEST LEVELS OF THE SOUNDING THIS
MORNING EVIDENT WITH SOME HAZY SKIES ALSO OBSERVED TODAY. LAPSE
RATES AND H5 TEMP ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STORMS, HOWEVER 12Z MFL
PWAT WAS 1.49". CONSIDERING THE LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPS WERE
SIMILAR YESTERDAY AND ACTIVITY WAS SCATTERED AT BEST ALONG THE
EAST COAST, EXPECTING THE SAME OR LESS TODAY THROUGH THE CITIES.
MODELS AGGRESSIVE WITH STORMS FIRING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR NAPLES
AND MUCH OF WESTERN COLLIER AND HENDRY COUNTIES, CUSTOMARY WITH
DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. BASED ON THE HEIGHT OF THE FREEZING LEVEL AND
LAPSE RATES, THERE IS A CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH HAIL
THIS AFTERNOON INTERIOR AND WEST COAST. ONLY CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE POPS NAPLES/WESTERN HENDRY/WESTERN
COLLIER.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 801 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...THERE IS AN AREA OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP MOISTURE
AND SOME SHOWERS EXTENDING WESTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA.
TERMINAL KPBI COULD EXPERIENCE LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS THIS
MORNING ALTHOUGH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WITH
THE INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE...VCTS ASSIGNED TO ALL EAST COAST
TERMINALS AT 16Z. WITH ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY VERY BRIEF
IFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

FOR TERMINAL KAPF...WITH HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING ACROSS THE
REGION AND RESULTANT MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS...THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP WITH THE KAPF TAF WIND FORECAST INDICATING
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS IN AFTERNOON. AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN PENINSULA WITH VCTS ASSIGNED AT 18Z.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014/

HIGHLIGHTS...

* MAX HEAT INDICES HITTING 102-108 TODAY
* MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ATLANTIC BEACHES
* STRONG TSTORM POTENTIAL WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST THIS
  AFTERNOON

DISCUSSION...
HEAT INDICES ARE STILL IN THE 90S AT THIS EARLY MORNING HOUR
ACROSS THE EAST COAST METROPOLITAN AREAS WHERE IT HAS NOT RAINED.
A SAHARAN AIR LAYER IS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD
TODAY. LIDAR AND SOUNDING DATA SHOW THAT THIS SAL IS RATHER
LOW...MAXED AT 1 KM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS LAYER WITH A CAP
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/DRY AIR ABOVE IT. HOWEVER, THIS IS NOT A
STRONG SAL SO IT WON`T LIMIT CONVECTION AS WOULD A STRONG EPISODE.
AS SUCH, MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT AND WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE
SAL (STEEPER LAPSE RATES ABOVE AN INVERSION) AND H5 TEMPS COOLING
TO NEAR -8C...WE COULD AGAIN HAVE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR/GULF COAST REGION WHERE
CONVERGENCE WILL BE BEST...THOUGH NOT OPTIMAL. THAT`S ONE NEGATING
FACTOR FOR ROBUST CONVECTION...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL BE
EASTERLY AT NEAR 15 KT WHICH LIKELY WILL PREVENT A FULL BLOWN GULF
SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING. HOWEVER, THERE STILL WILL BE SOME
CONVERGENCE WITH WIND FLOW VEERING ALONG THE GULF COAST. WILL
ORIENT POPS FROM ISOLATED EAST COAST TO SCATTERED CATEGORY GULF
COAST...WHERE FREQUENT LIGHTNING/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

MAX HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 102-108F RANGE ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...DUE TO LOWER TO MID 90S MAX TEMPS AND
DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S.

ONSHORE WINDS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY.

THE SAL WILL DEPART THE AREA ON SUNDAY AS RIDGING ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA MOVES THIS AREA WESTWARD ON THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW. A DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH FLORIDA WITH DEEP EASTERLY
FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK. A TUTT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD. MODEL
CONSENSUS TAKES THIS TO THE BAHAMAS DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK WHILE OPENING UP. GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NW
AND ACROSS THE AREA MID WEEK....LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THEN. GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING POPS
BEGINNING TOMORROW AS WELL. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER FEATURES...BUT
IT LOOKS UNSTABLE AND SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND AS SUCH FOLLOWED THE
POP TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /GREGORIA

MARINE...A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AS THE ATLANTIC RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA. SEAS WILL PREVAIL LESS THAN 4 FEET THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS WILL BE HIGHER IN AND NEAR AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHWEST OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING...BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS COULD
EVEN WORK INTO THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THEREFORE...A VCSH WILL
BE PUT IN FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THROUGH 14Z TODAY BEFORE
GOING DRY FOR REST OF TODAY.

THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL REMAIN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INCREASING TO AROUND 12 KNOTS AFTER
14Z. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THROUGH MOST OF TODAY...BUT COULD BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AFTER 20Z WHEN THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE TRIES TO
DEVELOP. SO WILL ALSO PUT IN VCTS FOR KAPF TAF SITES BETWEEN 21Z
AND 00Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY
AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES. /BNB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  90  79  90 /  20  30  10  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  40
MIAMI            80  90  80  90 /  20  20  10  40
NAPLES           77  92  77  91 /  20  60  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...60/BD





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