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000
FXUS62 KMFL 230043
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
743 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST IS
RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE FAST
MOVING AS THEY AFFECT THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. ADJUSTED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS AND CURRENTLY BELIEVE THIS SHOULD BE THE
TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE ONLY
SPRINKLES EXPECTED. POPS ARE LOW BUT CERTAINLY NON-ZERO THROUGH
TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAFS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE...BUT
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NAPLES...10-15Z LIKELY TO
BE MVFR...AND CANT RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN 10-15 KTS.
TOMORROW...ESE WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST...AND SPEEDS AGAIN INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER TEXAS. A WARM FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED
OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10 MPH OR LESS OVER THE LAND AREAS. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY AND INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DRIER
AIR TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM A CHANCE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ON
MONDAY...THE POPS WILL BE ONLY IN A SLIGHT CHANCE CAT OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN DRY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND BRING IN SOME MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CAT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE.

LONG TERM...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS
OVER THE AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

MARINE... THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE WINDS SWING
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO FALL FROM 7 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 7
FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC AND
BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SCA FOR THE GULF
SIDE WILL BE DROPPED. THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN AN
SCEC CONDITION FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  83  75  86 /  50  40  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  83  77  85 /  40  30  20  20
MIAMI            76  84  76  86 /  50  20  20  20
NAPLES           71  82  71  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 230043
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
743 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS
COMBINED WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST IS
RESULTING IN GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS EVENING AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. ACCOMPANYING
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS PUSHING IN FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL BE FAST
MOVING AS THEY AFFECT THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. ADJUSTED POPS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SHOWERS AND CURRENTLY BELIEVE THIS SHOULD BE THE
TREND THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...
FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE ONLY
SPRINKLES EXPECTED. POPS ARE LOW BUT CERTAINLY NON-ZERO THROUGH
TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAFS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE...BUT
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NAPLES...10-15Z LIKELY TO
BE MVFR...AND CANT RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN 10-15 KTS.
TOMORROW...ESE WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST...AND SPEEDS AGAIN INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER TEXAS. A WARM FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED
OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10 MPH OR LESS OVER THE LAND AREAS. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY AND INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DRIER
AIR TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM A CHANCE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ON
MONDAY...THE POPS WILL BE ONLY IN A SLIGHT CHANCE CAT OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN DRY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND BRING IN SOME MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CAT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE.

LONG TERM...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS
OVER THE AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

MARINE... THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE WINDS SWING
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO FALL FROM 7 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 7
FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC AND
BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SCA FOR THE GULF
SIDE WILL BE DROPPED. THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN AN
SCEC CONDITION FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  83  75  86 /  50  40  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  83  77  85 /  40  30  20  20
MIAMI            76  84  76  86 /  50  20  20  20
NAPLES           71  82  71  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 222358
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
658 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE ONLY
SPRINKLES EXPECTED. POPS ARE LOW BUT CERTAINLY NON-ZERO THROUGH
TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAFS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE...BUT
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NAPLES...10-15Z LIKELY TO
BE MVFR...AND CANT RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN 10-15 KTS.
TOMORROW...ESE WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST...AND SPEEDS AGAIN INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER TEXAS. A WARM FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED
OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10 MPH OR LESS OVER THE LAND AREAS. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY AND INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DRIER
AIR TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM A CHANCE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ON
MONDAY...THE POPS WILL BE ONLY IN A SLIGHT CHANCE CAT OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN DRY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND BRING IN SOME MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CAT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE.

LONG TERM...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS
OVER THE AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

MARINE... THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE WINDS SWING
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO FALL FROM 7 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 7
FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC AND
BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SCA FOR THE GULF
SIDE WILL BE DROPPED. THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN AN
SCEC CONDITION FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  83  75  86 /  40  40  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  83  77  85 /  30  30  20  20
MIAMI            76  84  76  86 /  30  20  20  20
NAPLES           71  82  71  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 222358
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
658 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
FEW -SHRA POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT...OTHERWISE ONLY
SPRINKLES EXPECTED. POPS ARE LOW BUT CERTAINLY NON-ZERO THROUGH
TAF PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT INCLUSION
IN TAFS. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE...BUT
OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOR NAPLES...10-15Z LIKELY TO
BE MVFR...AND CANT RULE OUT SOME IFR CIGS OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SLIGHT OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN 10-15 KTS.
TOMORROW...ESE WINDS TURN SOUTHEAST...AND SPEEDS AGAIN INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER TEXAS. A WARM FRONT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS
WILL MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED
OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY SUNDAY MORNING. THE WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE WIND
SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10 MPH OR LESS OVER THE LAND AREAS. THIS WILL
ALSO ALLOW FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO SLOWLY
DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY AND INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DRIER
AIR TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM A CHANCE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ON
MONDAY...THE POPS WILL BE ONLY IN A SLIGHT CHANCE CAT OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN DRY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND BRING IN SOME MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CAT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE.

LONG TERM...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS
OVER THE AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

MARINE... THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE WINDS SWING
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO FALL FROM 7 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 7
FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC AND
BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SCA FOR THE GULF
SIDE WILL BE DROPPED. THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN AN
SCEC CONDITION FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  83  75  86 /  40  40  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  83  77  85 /  30  30  20  20
MIAMI            76  84  76  86 /  30  20  20  20
NAPLES           71  82  71  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 222029
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
329 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY...
...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM FRONT
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10 MPH OR LESS OVER THE LAND
AREAS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY AND INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DRIER
AIR TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM A CHANCE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ON
MONDAY...THE POPS WILL BE ONLY IN A SLIGHT CHANCE CAT OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN DRY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND BRING IN SOME MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CAT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE.


.LONG TERM...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS
OVER THE AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE WINDS SWING
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO FALL FROM 7 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 7
FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC AND
BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SCA FOR THE GULF
SIDE WILL BE DROPPED. THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN AN
SCEC CONDITION FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  83  75  86 /  40  40  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  83  77  85 /  40  30  20  20
MIAMI            76  84  76  86 /  30  20  20  20
NAPLES           71  82  71  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 222029
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
329 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

...MARINE CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA SUNDAY...
...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER POSSIBLE MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP
AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A WARM FRONT
OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA
TONIGHT AND BE LOCATED OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AS THE WIND SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10 MPH OR LESS OVER THE LAND
AREAS. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR THE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES ON
SUNDAY AND INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH MONDAY AND BRING IN SOME DRIER
AIR TO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THE POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM A CHANCE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. ON
MONDAY...THE POPS WILL BE ONLY IN A SLIGHT CHANCE CAT OVER THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WILL
REMAIN DRY.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST AND BRING IN SOME MOISTURE
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. POPS WILL BE IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY CAT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE.


.LONG TERM...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE MID ATLANTIC STATES MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK PUSHING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY END OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING IN DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER TO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. AT THIS
TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE LOWS FOR LATE NEXT WEEK WILL BE IN THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA...EXCEPT MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR THE WIND CHILLS
OVER THE AREAS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S FOR THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE... THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY DECREASE FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS
AFTERNOON TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY SUNDAY EVENING...AS THE WINDS SWING
FROM AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION
ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
WITH WIND SPEEDS AT 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO FALL FROM 7 TO 9 FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO LESS THAN 7
FEET BY SUNDAY MORNING AND REMAIN BELOW 7 FEET THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. FOR THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SCA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC AND
BISCAYNE BAY WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SCA FOR THE GULF
SIDE WILL BE DROPPED. THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS WILL REMAIN IN AN
SCEC CONDITION FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  83  75  86 /  40  40  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  83  77  85 /  40  30  20  20
MIAMI            76  84  76  86 /  30  20  20  20
NAPLES           71  82  71  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 221755
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

VCSH WAS USED TO ACCOUNT FOR FAST MOVING SHOWERS MOVING INLAND
FROM THE EAST COAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THUS, DID NOT CONTINUE VCSH INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS, ALTHOUGH IT
MAY BE MERITED IF SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TODAY. STILL
THE CHC FOR SOME MVFR CIGS DURING THE REST OF TODAY AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTENT. THERE COULD BE
A 30KT GUST AT ANY OF THE EAST COAST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGEST
CHANGE TOMORROW WILL BE VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND
LESS LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THIS MORNING...AS A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO MOVE BACK NORTH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS THE WINDS TURN MORE TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS THIS MORNING WHICH IN TURN ALLOWED FOR THE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES LATE THIS MORNING. THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL WARM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BEFORE THE SKIES
CLOUD UP BY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RAISE A LITTLE BIT OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS
FOR TODAY.

THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ISOLATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SCA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY DUE TO THE EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE THE WINDS HAVE
ONLY BEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND THIS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SO A SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS TODAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AN NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...

MVFR POSSIBLE TODAY AS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES, WITH SHOWERS
ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY. LIKE YESTERDAY,
LAMP GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE PLACING CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT AT
MIA/FLL/FXE/OPF/TMB FOR A FEW HRS THIS MORNING. CURRENT OBS HAVE
HIGHER CIGS, AND LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MAY MEAN THAT LAMP CIGS ARE FORECAST TOO LOW. HOWEVER, IF ONE OF
THESE SHOWERS MOVES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL THERE COULD BE VERY
BRIEF IFR CIGS, ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
WITH A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY, SUSTAINED 15KT GUSTING TO
25 KTS LOOKS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, ANY
THUNDER  REMAINS SLT CHC AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN STATES FEATURING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION AND PLENTY OF MID TO
UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SATURATED LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 850 MB. SUBTLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWN IN THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST AND GULF STREAM WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY, THEN QUICKLY EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME WILL PERSIST
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY, PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS TODAY.
THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS POTENTIAL WITH THE
BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME MID
TO UPPER DRYING ACROSS THE AREA TRAILING THE WARM FRONT. THIS
DRYING COULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAINFALL CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WHICH MAY BE NEAR
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS EACH NIGHT.

/85

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)

THE EXTENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE. LARGE SCALE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES WILL BE EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS APPEAR FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE, ALL ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUING SEWD TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILLING
IN BEHIND IT FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. A
RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.

/85

AVIATION...

EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE T0 AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT AND NOT INCLUDED IN TAF`S.

/60

MARINE...

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND MOVES THROUGH BY
THANKSGIVING DAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN
THE WAKE OF THIS UPCOMING FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  83  74  84 /  40  40  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  83  75  84 /  40  30  20  10
MIAMI            74  83  75  85 /  40  30  20  10
NAPLES           71  83  71  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 221755
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1255 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

VCSH WAS USED TO ACCOUNT FOR FAST MOVING SHOWERS MOVING INLAND
FROM THE EAST COAST. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
THUS, DID NOT CONTINUE VCSH INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS, ALTHOUGH IT
MAY BE MERITED IF SHOWERS INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER TODAY. STILL
THE CHC FOR SOME MVFR CIGS DURING THE REST OF TODAY AND POSSIBLY
OVERNIGHT, WITH THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTENT. THERE COULD BE
A 30KT GUST AT ANY OF THE EAST COAST SITES THIS AFTERNOON. BIGGEST
CHANGE TOMORROW WILL BE VEERING OF SURFACE WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND
LESS LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THIS MORNING...AS A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO MOVE BACK NORTH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS THE WINDS TURN MORE TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS THIS MORNING WHICH IN TURN ALLOWED FOR THE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES LATE THIS MORNING. THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL WARM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BEFORE THE SKIES
CLOUD UP BY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RAISE A LITTLE BIT OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS
FOR TODAY.

THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ISOLATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SCA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY DUE TO THE EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE THE WINDS HAVE
ONLY BEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND THIS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SO A SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS TODAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AN NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...

MVFR POSSIBLE TODAY AS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES, WITH SHOWERS
ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY. LIKE YESTERDAY,
LAMP GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE PLACING CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT AT
MIA/FLL/FXE/OPF/TMB FOR A FEW HRS THIS MORNING. CURRENT OBS HAVE
HIGHER CIGS, AND LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MAY MEAN THAT LAMP CIGS ARE FORECAST TOO LOW. HOWEVER, IF ONE OF
THESE SHOWERS MOVES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL THERE COULD BE VERY
BRIEF IFR CIGS, ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
WITH A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY, SUSTAINED 15KT GUSTING TO
25 KTS LOOKS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, ANY
THUNDER  REMAINS SLT CHC AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN STATES FEATURING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION AND PLENTY OF MID TO
UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SATURATED LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 850 MB. SUBTLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWN IN THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST AND GULF STREAM WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY, THEN QUICKLY EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME WILL PERSIST
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY, PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS TODAY.
THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS POTENTIAL WITH THE
BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME MID
TO UPPER DRYING ACROSS THE AREA TRAILING THE WARM FRONT. THIS
DRYING COULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAINFALL CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WHICH MAY BE NEAR
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS EACH NIGHT.

/85

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)

THE EXTENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE. LARGE SCALE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES WILL BE EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS APPEAR FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE, ALL ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUING SEWD TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILLING
IN BEHIND IT FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. A
RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.

/85

AVIATION...

EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE T0 AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT AND NOT INCLUDED IN TAF`S.

/60

MARINE...

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND MOVES THROUGH BY
THANKSGIVING DAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN
THE WAKE OF THIS UPCOMING FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  83  74  84 /  40  40  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  83  75  84 /  40  30  20  10
MIAMI            74  83  75  85 /  40  30  20  10
NAPLES           71  83  71  82 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221514 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1014 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THIS MORNING...AS A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO MOVE BACK NORTH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS THE WINDS TURN MORE TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS THIS MORNING WHICH IN TURN ALLOWED FOR THE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES LATE THIS MORNING. THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL WARM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BEFORE THE SKIES
CLOUD UP BY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RAISE A LITTLE BIT OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS
FOR TODAY.

THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ISOLATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SCA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY DUE TO THE EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE THE WINDS HAVE
ONLY BEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND THIS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SO A SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS TODAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AN NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATED...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...

MVFR POSSIBLE TODAY AS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES, WITH SHOWERS
ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY. LIKE YESTERDAY,
LAMP GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE PLACING CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT AT
MIA/FLL/FXE/OPF/TMB FOR A FEW HRS THIS MORNING. CURRENT OBS HAVE
HIGHER CIGS, AND LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MAY MEAN THAT LAMP CIGS ARE FORECAST TOO LOW. HOWEVER, IF ONE OF
THESE SHOWERS MOVES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL THERE COULD BE VERY
BRIEF IFR CIGS, ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
WITH A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY, SUSTAINED 15KT GUSTING TO
25 KTS LOOKS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, ANY
THUNDER  REMAINS SLT CHC AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN STATES FEATURING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION AND PLENTY OF MID TO
UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SATURATED LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 850 MB. SUBTLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWN IN THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST AND GULF STREAM WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY, THEN QUICKLY EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME WILL PERSIST
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY, PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS TODAY.
THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS POTENTIAL WITH THE
BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME MID
TO UPPER DRYING ACROSS THE AREA TRAILING THE WARM FRONT. THIS
DRYING COULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAINFALL CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WHICH MAY BE NEAR
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS EACH NIGHT.

/85

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)

THE EXTENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE. LARGE SCALE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES WILL BE EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS APPEAR FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE, ALL ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUING SEWD TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILLING
IN BEHIND IT FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. A
RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.

/85

AVIATION...

EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE T0 AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT AND NOT INCLUDED IN TAF`S.

/60

MARINE...

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND MOVES THROUGH BY
THANKSGIVING DAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN
THE WAKE OF THIS UPCOMING FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  74  83  74 /  50  40  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  75  83  75 /  50  40  30  20
MIAMI            81  74  83  75 /  50  40  30  20
NAPLES           83  71  83  71 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221514 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1014 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THIS MORNING...AS A STATIONARY FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS NEAR
THE TEXAS COAST. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT
TO MOVE BACK NORTH OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS A WARM FRONT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY RELAX THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
AS THE WINDS TURN MORE TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.

THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME CLEARING OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS THIS MORNING WHICH IN TURN ALLOWED FOR THE TEMPERATURES
TO WARM UP TO AROUND 80 DEGREES LATE THIS MORNING. THE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD STILL WARM UP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S BEFORE THE SKIES
CLOUD UP BY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
RAISE A LITTLE BIT OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS
FOR TODAY.

THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ISOLATED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD.
THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED RANGE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE SCA WILL ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY DUE TO THE EASTERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE THE WINDS HAVE
ONLY BEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND THIS WINDS SHOULD REMAIN
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SO A SCEC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE WATERS TODAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AN NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATED...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

AVIATION...

MVFR POSSIBLE TODAY AS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES, WITH SHOWERS
ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY. LIKE YESTERDAY,
LAMP GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE PLACING CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT AT
MIA/FLL/FXE/OPF/TMB FOR A FEW HRS THIS MORNING. CURRENT OBS HAVE
HIGHER CIGS, AND LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MAY MEAN THAT LAMP CIGS ARE FORECAST TOO LOW. HOWEVER, IF ONE OF
THESE SHOWERS MOVES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL THERE COULD BE VERY
BRIEF IFR CIGS, ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
WITH A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY, SUSTAINED 15KT GUSTING TO
25 KTS LOOKS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, ANY
THUNDER  REMAINS SLT CHC AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN STATES FEATURING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION AND PLENTY OF MID TO
UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SATURATED LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 850 MB. SUBTLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWN IN THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST AND GULF STREAM WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY, THEN QUICKLY EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME WILL PERSIST
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY, PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS TODAY.
THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS POTENTIAL WITH THE
BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME MID
TO UPPER DRYING ACROSS THE AREA TRAILING THE WARM FRONT. THIS
DRYING COULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAINFALL CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WHICH MAY BE NEAR
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS EACH NIGHT.

/85

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)

THE EXTENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE. LARGE SCALE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES WILL BE EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS APPEAR FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE, ALL ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUING SEWD TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILLING
IN BEHIND IT FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. A
RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.

/85

AVIATION...

EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE T0 AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT AND NOT INCLUDED IN TAF`S.

/60

MARINE...

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND MOVES THROUGH BY
THANKSGIVING DAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN
THE WAKE OF THIS UPCOMING FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  74  83  74 /  50  40  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  75  83  75 /  50  40  30  20
MIAMI            81  74  83  75 /  50  40  30  20
NAPLES           83  71  83  71 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 221154
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
654 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

MVFR POSSIBLE TODAY AS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES, WITH SHOWERS
ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY. LIKE YESTERDAY,
LAMP GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE PLACING CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT AT
MIA/FLL/FXE/OPF/TMB FOR A FEW HRS THIS MORNING. CURRENT OBS HAVE
HIGHER CIGS, AND LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MAY MEAN THAT LAMP CIGS ARE FORECAST TOO LOW. HOWEVER, IF ONE OF
THESE SHOWERS MOVES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL THERE COULD BE VERY
BRIEF IFR CIGS, ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
WITH A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY, SUSTAINED 15KT GUSTING TO
25 KTS LOOKS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, ANY
THUNDER  REMAINS SLT CHC AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN STATES FEATURING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION AND PLENTY OF MID TO
UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SATURATED LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 850 MB. SUBTLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWN IN THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST AND GULF STREAM WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY, THEN QUICKLY EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME WILL PERSIST
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY, PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS TODAY.
THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS POTENTIAL WITH THE
BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME MID
TO UPPER DRYING ACROSS THE AREA TRAILING THE WARM FRONT. THIS
DRYING COULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAINFALL CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WHICH MAY BE NEAR
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS EACH NIGHT.

/85

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)

THE EXTENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE. LARGE SCALE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES WILL BE EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS APPEAR FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE, ALL ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUING SEWD TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILLING
IN BEHIND IT FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. A
RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.

/85

AVIATION...

EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE T0 AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT AND NOT INCLUDED IN TAF`S.

/60

MARINE...

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND MOVES THROUGH BY
THANKSGIVING DAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN
THE WAKE OF THIS UPCOMING FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  74  83  74 /  50  40  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  75  83  75 /  60  40  30  20
MIAMI            78  74  83  75 /  60  40  30  20
NAPLES           78  71  83  71 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 221154
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
654 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

MVFR POSSIBLE TODAY AS DEEP EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES, WITH SHOWERS
ARRIVING ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE DAY. LIKE YESTERDAY,
LAMP GUIDANCE IS AGGRESSIVE PLACING CIGS AROUND 2.5KFT AT
MIA/FLL/FXE/OPF/TMB FOR A FEW HRS THIS MORNING. CURRENT OBS HAVE
HIGHER CIGS, AND LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
MAY MEAN THAT LAMP CIGS ARE FORECAST TOO LOW. HOWEVER, IF ONE OF
THESE SHOWERS MOVES DIRECTLY OVER A TERMINAL THERE COULD BE VERY
BRIEF IFR CIGS, ALTHOUGH NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
WITH A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT TODAY, SUSTAINED 15KT GUSTING TO
25 KTS LOOKS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED, ANY
THUNDER  REMAINS SLT CHC AND OFF THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN STATES FEATURING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION AND PLENTY OF MID TO
UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SATURATED LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 850 MB. SUBTLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWN IN THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST AND GULF STREAM WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY, THEN QUICKLY EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME WILL PERSIST
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY, PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS TODAY.
THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS POTENTIAL WITH THE
BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME MID
TO UPPER DRYING ACROSS THE AREA TRAILING THE WARM FRONT. THIS
DRYING COULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAINFALL CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WHICH MAY BE NEAR
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS EACH NIGHT.

/85

LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)

THE EXTENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE. LARGE SCALE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES WILL BE EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE
REGION. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN/GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS APPEAR FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE, ALL ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUING SEWD TOWARD SOUTH
FLORIDA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILLING
IN BEHIND IT FOR THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY
TRANSLATE TO INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION
OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. A
RETURN TO NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.

/85

AVIATION...

EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE T0 AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT AND NOT INCLUDED IN TAF`S.

/60

MARINE...

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND MOVES THROUGH BY
THANKSGIVING DAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN
THE WAKE OF THIS UPCOMING FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  74  83  74 /  50  40  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  75  83  75 /  60  40  30  20
MIAMI            78  74  83  75 /  60  40  30  20
NAPLES           78  71  83  71 /  60  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
234 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN STATES FEATURING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION AND PLENTY OF MID TO
UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SATURATED LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 850 MB. SUBTLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWN IN THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST AND GULF STREAM WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY, THEN QUICKLY EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME WILL PERSIST
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY, PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS TODAY.
THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS POTENTIAL WITH THE
BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME MID
TO UPPER DRYING ACROSS THE AREA TRAILING THE WARM FRONT. THIS
DRYING COULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAINFALL CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WHICH MAY NEAR RECORD
HIGH MINIMUMS EACH NIGHT.

/85

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)

THE EXTENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE. LARGE SCALE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES WILL BE EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS APPEAR FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE, ALL ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUING SEWD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILLING IN BEHIND IT FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO INCREASING
RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. A RETURN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.

/85

&&

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE T0 AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT AND NOT INCLUDED IN TAF`S.

/60

&&

.MARINE...

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND MOVES THROUGH BY
THANKSGIVING DAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN
THE WAKE OF THIS UPCOMING FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  73  83  73 /  50  50  40  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  75  83  75 /  50  50  30  20
MIAMI            80  74  84  74 /  60  50  30  10
NAPLES           81  71  84  71 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610-630.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ676.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657.

&&

$$

AVIATION...60/BD
REST OF DISCUSSION...85/AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
234 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-MONDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN STATES FEATURING A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING
EASTWARD TOWARD TEXAS OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION, RIDGING
AHEAD OF IT OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN REGION AND PLENTY OF MID TO
UPPER MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH
AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MODEL
SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SATURATED LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
WITH MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 850 MB. SUBTLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AROUND THE 300 K SURFACE SHOWN IN THE LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS HAS INITIALIZED WELL AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE
PERSISTENT LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST AND GULF STREAM WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING.

AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SHOWS THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND FL PENINSULA AS A WARM FRONT.
THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUING EASTWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER MS VALLEY TODAY, THEN QUICKLY EJECTING NEWD ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY. THE ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE REGIME WILL PERSIST
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AS THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EVOLVES, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE RAIN CHANCES FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY, PLENTY OF MOISTURE COMBINED
WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STORMS TODAY.
THE LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS POTENTIAL WITH THE
BEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE ADJACENT WATERS AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD ACT TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION INLAND OF THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THIS TIME.
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT, THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS SOME MID
TO UPPER DRYING ACROSS THE AREA TRAILING THE WARM FRONT. THIS
DRYING COULD RESULT IN A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE OVERCAST
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
RAINFALL CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE,
ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS, WHICH MAY NEAR RECORD
HIGH MINIMUMS EACH NIGHT.

/85

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)

THE EXTENDED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE. LARGE SCALE UPPER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES WILL BE EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS DIVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND DRIVE A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN/GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS APPEAR FROM CYCLE TO CYCLE, ALL ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUING SEWD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR FILLING IN BEHIND IT FOR
THANKSGIVING DAY. THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO INCREASING
RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. A RETURN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR
THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY.

/85

&&

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE T0 AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL
MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT AND NOT INCLUDED IN TAF`S.

/60

&&

.MARINE...

ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS TODAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
ALONG WITH A FEW STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT TODAY AS THE BOUNDARY
MOVES THROUGH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA AND MOVES THROUGH BY
THANKSGIVING DAY. FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN
THE WAKE OF THIS UPCOMING FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  73  83  73 /  50  50  40  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  75  83  75 /  50  50  30  20
MIAMI            80  74  84  74 /  60  50  30  10
NAPLES           81  71  84  71 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610-630.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ676.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657.

&&

$$

AVIATION...60/BD
REST OF DISCUSSION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 220554
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1254 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25
KNOTS WILL CONTINUE T0 AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. STRATOCUMULUS WITH LIGHT SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL MODERATE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OFF THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND AFFECT THE EAST COAST TERMINALS EARLY THIS
MORNING. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VERY BRIEF PERIODS OF NEAR IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z
SATURDAY. AFTER 18Z SATURDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE AT THE MOMENT AND NOT INCLUDED
IN TAF`S.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 719 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL LITTLE OVERNIGHT. ONLY GRID UPDATES INVOLVED ALTERING
HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND NEAR-TERM
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

AVIATION...
LOW CIGS/-RA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND REMAIN GUSTY DUE TO A CONTINUED
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING MOISTURE
COULD PRODUCE INTERMITTENT -RA THAT COULD AFFECT MAINLY THE EAST
COAST SITES...SO KEPT VCSH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
PREVAIL. BRIEF ISOLATED IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PREVAIL ATTM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
MAKING IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE GULF COAST IN THE STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ON
SATURDAY, FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
WITH MODERATE TO EVEN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY REGION MAY HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER
RAIN, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT ON THIS AS THE ECMWF
SHOWS HEAVIER PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THEREFORE, WILL
SHOW CONSISTENT POPS IN THE 50-60% RANGE EAST COAST WITH 30-40%
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH ON SUNDAY, AS THE FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CLEARING AND WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX CROSSING CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE AREA AND PALM BEACH COUNTY
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL REACH THE 80S UNDER LESS CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AS THE AREA SITS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S EASTERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND WEST.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN AS THE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WITH THE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD. BASED ON THIS LATEST FORECAST, THE
TWO COLDEST MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE LAKE.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENTLY STRONG EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

MARINE...

FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE SMALL CRAAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ADDED FOR THE LAKE AND THE NEARSHORE GULF
COAST GULF WATERS ON 00Z SATURDAY (THIS EVENING AT 7 PM EST). FOR
THE GULF WATERS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ENDS AT 00Z SUNDAY
(SATURDAY AT 7 PM EST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  79  73  83  73 /  50  50  40  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  75  83  75 /  50  50  30  20
MIAMI            80  74  84  74 /  60  50  30  10
NAPLES           81  71  84  71 /  30  20  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610-630.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ676.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ656-657.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 220019
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
719 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL LITTLE OVERNIGHT. ONLY GRID UPDATES INVOLVED ALTERING
HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND NEAR-TERM
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS/-RA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND REMAIN GUSTY DUE TO A CONTINUED
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING MOISTURE
COULD PRODUCE INTERMITTENT -RA THAT COULD AFFECT MAINLY THE EAST
COAST SITES...SO KEPT VCSH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
PREVAIL. BRIEF ISOLATED IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PREVAIL ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
MAKING IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE GULF COAST IN THE STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ON
SATURDAY, FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
WITH MODERATE TO EVEN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY REGION MAY HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER
RAIN, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT ON THIS AS THE ECMWF
SHOWS HEAVIER PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THEREFORE, WILL
SHOW CONSISTENT POPS IN THE 50-60% RANGE EAST COAST WITH 30-40%
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH ON SUNDAY, AS THE FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CLEARING AND WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX CROSSING CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE AREA AND PALM BEACH COUNTY
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL REACH THE 80S UNDER LESS CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AS THE AREA SITS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S EASTERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND WEST.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN AS THE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WITH THE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD. BASED ON THIS LATEST FORECAST, THE
TWO COLDEST MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE LAKE.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENTLY STRONG EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

MARINE...

FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE SMALL CRAAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ADDED FOR THE LAKE AND THE NEARSHORE GULF
COAST GULF WATERS ON 00Z SATURDAY (THIS EVENING AT 7 PM EST). FOR
THE GULF WATERS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ENDS AT 00Z SUNDAY
(SATURDAY AT 7 PM EST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  79  73  83 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  80  75  83 /  30  50  50  30
MIAMI            72  80  74  84 /  30  60  50  30
NAPLES           67  81  71  84 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ676.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....BNB/JE/RM
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 220019
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
719 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE AND SOME VERY LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION AND LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL LITTLE OVERNIGHT. ONLY GRID UPDATES INVOLVED ALTERING
HOURLY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND NEAR-TERM
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CIGS/-RA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRAPPED ACROSS THE AREA AND A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER
MORE EASTERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND REMAIN GUSTY DUE TO A CONTINUED
TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING MOISTURE
COULD PRODUCE INTERMITTENT -RA THAT COULD AFFECT MAINLY THE EAST
COAST SITES...SO KEPT VCSH THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT MVFR CIGS TO
PREVAIL. BRIEF ISOLATED IFR CIGS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BUT NOT CONFIDENT
ENOUGH TO PREVAIL ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA SATURDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE
LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE SHOWERS POSSIBLY
MAKING IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE GULF COAST IN THE STRONG
EASTERLY FLOW. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ON
SATURDAY, FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
WITH MODERATE TO EVEN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY REGION MAY HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER
RAIN, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT ON THIS AS THE ECMWF
SHOWS HEAVIER PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THEREFORE, WILL
SHOW CONSISTENT POPS IN THE 50-60% RANGE EAST COAST WITH 30-40%
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH ON SUNDAY, AS THE FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CLEARING AND WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX CROSSING CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE AREA AND PALM BEACH COUNTY
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL REACH THE 80S UNDER LESS CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AS THE AREA SITS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S EASTERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND WEST.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN AS THE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WITH THE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD. BASED ON THIS LATEST FORECAST, THE
TWO COLDEST MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE LAKE.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENTLY STRONG EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

MARINE...

FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE SMALL CRAAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ADDED FOR THE LAKE AND THE NEARSHORE GULF
COAST GULF WATERS ON 00Z SATURDAY (THIS EVENING AT 7 PM EST). FOR
THE GULF WATERS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ENDS AT 00Z SUNDAY
(SATURDAY AT 7 PM EST).

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  79  73  83 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  80  75  83 /  30  50  50  30
MIAMI            72  80  74  84 /  30  60  50  30
NAPLES           67  81  71  84 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ676.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....BNB/JE/RM
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 212042
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
342 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT MAINLY
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH THE SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAKING IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE
GULF COAST IN THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ON
SATURDAY, FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
WITH MODERATE TO EVEN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY REGION MAY HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER
RAIN, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT ON THIS AS THE ECMWF
SHOWS HEAVIER PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THEREFORE, WILL
SHOW CONSISTENT POPS IN THE 50-60% RANGE EAST COAST WITH 30-40%
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH ON SUNDAY, AS THE FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CLEARING AND WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX CROSSING CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE AREA AND PALM BEACH COUNTY
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL REACH THE 80S UNDER LESS CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AS THE AREA SITS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S EASTERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND WEST.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN AS THE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WITH THE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD. BASED ON THIS LATEST FORECAST, THE
TWO COLDEST MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE LAKE.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENTLY STRONG EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE SMALL CRAAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ADDED FOR THE LAKE AND THE NEARSHORE GULF
COAST GULF WATERS ON 00Z SATURDAY (THIS EVENING AT 7 PM EST). FOR
THE GULF WATERS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ENDS AT 00Z SUNDAY
(SATURDAY AT 7 PM EST).

.AVIATION...(ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014)

DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST H7 COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW, IS KEEPING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
MVFR CIG AND VIS MAY ACTUALLY HANG AROUND FOR THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON
AS THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH INSOLATION THROUGH THICKER MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO BURN OFF THE LOW DECK. STILL COULD BE SOME BRIEF IFR CIG
AT MIA/OPF/TMB/FLL/FXE THE REST OF TODAY. POSSIBLY SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CIG AND VIS AROUND 20Z. ANY LATE AFTERNOON
IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY DISAPPEAR TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THE SOUTHEAST, INCREASING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS FROM THIS
MORNING WHICH FEATURED A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIG CAN HAPPEN AGAIN SAT
AM. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER TOO WITH 20KT GUSTS. FOR NOW WILL
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR IFR CIG WITH JUST SCT BLO 1KFT AROUND
DAWN SATURDAY. CIG SHOULD REMAIN NO LOWER THAN MVFR FOR PBI/APF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  79  73  83 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  80  75  83 /  30  50  50  30
MIAMI            72  80  74  84 /  30  60  50  30
NAPLES           67  81  71  84 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ610.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ676.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM... 10/23/54/55/59/71/84
AVIATION/RADAR...21




000
FXUS62 KMFL 212042
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
342 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT THE LINGERING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS CONTINUING TO AFFECT MAINLY
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY,
WITH THE SHOWERS POSSIBLY MAKING IT ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO THE
GULF COAST IN THE STRONG EASTERLY FLOW. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ON
SATURDAY, FOCUS FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO TRANSLATE NORTHWARD
WITH MODERATE TO EVEN OCCASIONALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
PALM BEACH COUNTY REGION MAY HAVE THE GREATEST CHANCE OF HEAVIER
RAIN, BUT MODEL GUIDANCE ISN`T CONSISTENT ON THIS AS THE ECMWF
SHOWS HEAVIER PRECIP AS FAR SOUTH AS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THEREFORE, WILL
SHOW CONSISTENT POPS IN THE 50-60% RANGE EAST COAST WITH 30-40%
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.

FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHEAST-SOUTH ON SUNDAY, AS THE FRONT FINALLY
LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING A CLEARING AND WARMING
TREND TO THE AREA. HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX CROSSING CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON MAY TRIGGER SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE LAKE AREA AND PALM BEACH COUNTY
WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
WILL REACH THE 80S UNDER LESS CLOUDY SKIES AND WARM SOUTHERLY
WINDS.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE DRIEST DAY AS THE AREA SITS BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE NEXT APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S EASTERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID 80S INTERIOR AND WEST.
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN AS THE GLOBAL
MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND COOLER WITH THE
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE COLD. BASED ON THIS LATEST FORECAST, THE
TWO COLDEST MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S FOR
AREAS WEST OF THE LAKE.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENTLY STRONG EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...

FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL NORTH OF THE MARINE AREA. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TOWARD THE SOUTH BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE MARINE AREA. THE SMALL CRAAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ADDED FOR THE LAKE AND THE NEARSHORE GULF
COAST GULF WATERS ON 00Z SATURDAY (THIS EVENING AT 7 PM EST). FOR
THE GULF WATERS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ENDS AT 00Z SUNDAY
(SATURDAY AT 7 PM EST).

.AVIATION...(ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014)

DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST H7 COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT EASTERLY
FLOW, IS KEEPING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
MVFR CIG AND VIS MAY ACTUALLY HANG AROUND FOR THE ENTIRE AFTERNOON
AS THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH INSOLATION THROUGH THICKER MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS TO BURN OFF THE LOW DECK. STILL COULD BE SOME BRIEF IFR CIG
AT MIA/OPF/TMB/FLL/FXE THE REST OF TODAY. POSSIBLY SOME SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN CIG AND VIS AROUND 20Z. ANY LATE AFTERNOON
IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY DISAPPEAR TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THE SOUTHEAST, INCREASING
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS FROM THIS
MORNING WHICH FEATURED A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIG CAN HAPPEN AGAIN SAT
AM. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER TOO WITH 20KT GUSTS. FOR NOW WILL
INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR IFR CIG WITH JUST SCT BLO 1KFT AROUND
DAWN SATURDAY. CIG SHOULD REMAIN NO LOWER THAN MVFR FOR PBI/APF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  79  73  83 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  80  75  83 /  30  50  50  30
MIAMI            72  80  74  84 /  30  60  50  30
NAPLES           67  81  71  84 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ610.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ676.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM... 10/23/54/55/59/71/84
AVIATION/RADAR...21





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211753
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1253 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST H7 COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW, IS KEEPING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MVFR CIG AND VIS MAY ACTUALLY HANG AROUND FOR THE
ENTIRE AFTERNOON AS THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH INSOLATION THROUGH
THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO BURN OFF THE LOW DECK. STILL COULD BE
SOME BRIEF IFR CIG AT MIA/OPF/TMB/FLL/FXE THE REST OF TODAY. POSSIBLY
SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIG AND VIS AROUND 20Z. ANY LATE
AFTERNOON IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY DISAPPEAR TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THE SOUTHEAST,
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS
FROM THIS MORNING WHICH FEATURED A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIG CAN HAPPEN
AGAIN SAT AM. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER TOO WITH 20KT GUSTS.
FOR NOW WILL INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR IFR CIG WITH JUST SCT
BLO 1KFT AROUND DAWN SATURDAY. CIG SHOULD REMAIN NO LOWER THAN
MVFR FOR PBI/APF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS THE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF THE MORNING HOURS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. THE
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS A SHORT WAVE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS.

THE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC...OFFSHORE GULF...AND BISCAYNE BAY
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST DIRECTION. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND BY TONIGHT BE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE. THEREFORE...THE SCA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE BISCAYNE BAY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE SCA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SCA HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED TONIGHT TO INCLUDE THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NEAR-SHORE GULF WATERS.

THE BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM
FORT LAUDERDALE TO MIAMI. MODERATE ENE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS WILL BE EXPECTED TODAY. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL CONUS AND THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER THERE WILL
STILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. A SHORT LIVED CLEARING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY BUT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
AS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY
AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE FRONT EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY THANKSGIVING DAY FORECAST THUS
FAR.

MARINE...

WINDS IN THE 20 TO 23 KNOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
GULF WATERS. SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING AND FORECAST TO LINGER
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY FOR THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS AND
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  78  73  82 /  20  50  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  79  74  83 /  20  60  50  30
MIAMI            72  80  74  83 /  20  60  40  30
NAPLES           67  81  70  82 /  10  40  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ610.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ676.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211753
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1253 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST H7 COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
EASTERLY FLOW, IS KEEPING SHOWERS AND LOW CLOUDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION. MVFR CIG AND VIS MAY ACTUALLY HANG AROUND FOR THE
ENTIRE AFTERNOON AS THERE MAY NOT BE ENOUGH INSOLATION THROUGH
THICKER MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO BURN OFF THE LOW DECK. STILL COULD BE
SOME BRIEF IFR CIG AT MIA/OPF/TMB/FLL/FXE THE REST OF TODAY. POSSIBLY
SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IN CIG AND VIS AROUND 20Z. ANY LATE
AFTERNOON IMPROVEMENT WILL LIKELY DISAPPEAR TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ACTUALLY SINKS FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THE SOUTHEAST,
INCREASING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SOMEWHAT. THEREFORE, CONDITIONS
FROM THIS MORNING WHICH FEATURED A FEW HOURS OF IFR CIG CAN HAPPEN
AGAIN SAT AM. WINDS MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER TOO WITH 20KT GUSTS.
FOR NOW WILL INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY FOR IFR CIG WITH JUST SCT
BLO 1KFT AROUND DAWN SATURDAY. CIG SHOULD REMAIN NO LOWER THAN
MVFR FOR PBI/APF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS THE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF THE MORNING HOURS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. THE
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS A SHORT WAVE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS.

THE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC...OFFSHORE GULF...AND BISCAYNE BAY
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST DIRECTION. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND BY TONIGHT BE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE. THEREFORE...THE SCA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE BISCAYNE BAY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE SCA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SCA HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED TONIGHT TO INCLUDE THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NEAR-SHORE GULF WATERS.

THE BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM
FORT LAUDERDALE TO MIAMI. MODERATE ENE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS WILL BE EXPECTED TODAY. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL CONUS AND THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER THERE WILL
STILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. A SHORT LIVED CLEARING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY BUT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
AS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY
AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE FRONT EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY THANKSGIVING DAY FORECAST THUS
FAR.

MARINE...

WINDS IN THE 20 TO 23 KNOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
GULF WATERS. SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING AND FORECAST TO LINGER
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY FOR THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS AND
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  78  73  82 /  20  50  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  79  74  83 /  20  60  50  30
MIAMI            72  80  74  83 /  20  60  40  30
NAPLES           67  81  70  82 /  10  40  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ610.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ676.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 211418 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
918 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
TONIGHT...AS THE WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

THE LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF THE MORNING HOURS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN AREAS. THE
LIGHT SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...AS A SHORT WAVE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS WILL MOVE EAST ALONG
THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INTO THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS.

THE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC...OFFSHORE GULF...AND BISCAYNE BAY
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN AROUND 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING
FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST DIRECTION. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND BY TONIGHT BE AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS UP TO GALE FORCE. THEREFORE...THE SCA HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE BISCAYNE BAY FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHILE THE SCA REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR THE ATLANTIC AND OFFSHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE SCA HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED TONIGHT TO INCLUDE THE
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND NEAR-SHORE GULF WATERS.

THE BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 527 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM
FORT LAUDERDALE TO MIAMI. MODERATE ENE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS WILL BE EXPECTED TODAY. /85

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL CONUS AND THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER THERE WILL
STILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. A SHORT LIVED CLEARING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY BUT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
AS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY
AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE FRONT EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY THANKSGIVING DAY FORECAST THUS
FAR.

MARINE...

WINDS IN THE 20 TO 23 KNOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
GULF WATERS. SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING AND FORECAST TO LINGER
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY FOR THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS AND
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  71  78  73 /  30  20  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  73  79  74 /  50  20  60  50
MIAMI            77  72  80  74 /  60  20  60  40
NAPLES           78  67  81  70 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR AMZ610.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ676.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211027
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
527 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM
FORT LAUDERDALE TO MIAMI. MODERATE ENE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS WILL BE EXPECTED TODAY. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL CONUS AND THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER THERE WILL
STILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. A SHORT LIVED CLEARING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY BUT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
AS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY
AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE FRONT EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY THANKSGIVING DAY FORECAST THUS
FAR.

MARINE...

WINDS IN THE 20 TO 23 KNOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
GULF WATERS. SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING AND FORECAST TO LINGER
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY FOR THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS AND
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  71  78  73 /  30  20  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  73  79  74 /  50  20  60  50
MIAMI            77  72  80  74 /  60  20  60  40
NAPLES           78  67  81  70 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211027
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
527 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM
FORT LAUDERDALE TO MIAMI. MODERATE ENE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KTS WILL BE EXPECTED TODAY. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL CONUS AND THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER THERE WILL
STILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. A SHORT LIVED CLEARING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY BUT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
AS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY
AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE FRONT EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY THANKSGIVING DAY FORECAST THUS
FAR.

MARINE...

WINDS IN THE 20 TO 23 KNOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
GULF WATERS. SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING AND FORECAST TO LINGER
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY FOR THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS AND
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  71  78  73 /  30  20  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  73  79  74 /  50  20  60  50
MIAMI            77  72  80  74 /  60  20  60  40
NAPLES           78  67  81  70 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 210911
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
411 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL CONUS AND THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER THERE WILL
STILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. A SHORT LIVED CLEARING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY BUT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
AS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY
AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE FRONT EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY THANKSGIVING DAY FORECAST THUS
FAR.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS IN THE 20 TO 23 KNOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
GULF WATERS. SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING AND FORECAST TO LINGER
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY FOR THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS AND
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  71  78  73 /  30  20  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  73  79  74 /  50  20  60  50
MIAMI            77  72  80  74 /  60  20  60  40
NAPLES           78  67  81  70 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 210911
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
411 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES
AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC BY SATURDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO AFFECT MAINLY THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST
METRO AREAS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS STRONG
WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS CONTINUE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL CONUS AND THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE IS PULLED NORTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. HOWEVER THERE WILL
STILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION COULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S. A SHORT LIVED CLEARING TREND IS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY BUT BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO RETURN
AS THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY
AND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO FORECAST THE FRONT EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY WITH A COOL AND DRY THANKSGIVING DAY FORECAST THUS
FAR.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS IN THE 20 TO 23 KNOT RANGE ARE POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE OFF SHORE
GULF WATERS. SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WATERS
TODAY THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY EVENING AND FORECAST TO LINGER
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE IN
EFFECT TODAY THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY FOR THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS AND
THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE ADVISORY FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY WITH SEAS TO ADVISORY LEVELS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THAT PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  71  78  73 /  30  20  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  73  79  74 /  50  20  60  50
MIAMI            77  72  80  74 /  60  20  60  40
NAPLES           78  67  81  70 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 210611
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
111 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...

MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE PERIODICALLY THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ALONG THE EAST
COAST. MODERATE ENE WINDS SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH
OF THE TAF SITES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ALONG THE EAST COAST
SITES FROM SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MOVE ASHORE.
/85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...
EXTENDED SCA SPATIALLY TO INCLUDE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND
TEMPORALLY THROUGH FRI NIGHT FOR ATLANTIC WATERS. NO OTHER CHANGES
TO FORECAST. NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL WILL ONLY SLIGHT COOLING
OVERNIGHT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE EAST COAST BEFORE
DAWN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES...SO KEPT VCSH AT
ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 16Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE
TO DRIFT FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A
FETCH OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXTENDS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
THE NORTHEAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD WATERS.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ON SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS THE WINDS TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY AND COLLIDE WITH MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTED TODAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
NEXT WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE OF THE
TROUGH AND THE LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD STILL PRESENT IN THE
DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS IN MID 50S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING OF THIS COMING WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS IN THE
20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGIONAL GULF WATERS AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  71  78  73 /  30  20  60  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  73  79  74 /  40  30  60  40
MIAMI            78  72  79  74 /  40  30  60  40
NAPLES           78  67  81  70 /  10   0  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 210047
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED SCA SPATIALLY TO INCLUDE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND
TEMPORALLY THROUGH FRI NIGHT FOR ATLANTIC WATERS. NO OTHER CHANGES
TO FORECAST. NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL WILL ONLY SLIGHT COOLING
OVERNIGHT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE EAST COAST BEFORE
DAWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES...SO KEPT VCSH AT
ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 16Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE
TO DRIFT FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A
FETCH OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXTENDS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
THE NORTHEAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD WATERS.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ON SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS THE WINDS TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY AND COLLIDE WITH MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTED TODAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
NEXT WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE OF THE
TROUGH AND THE LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD STILL PRESENT IN THE
DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS IN MID 50S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING OF THIS COMING WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS IN THE
20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGIONAL GULF WATERS AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  76  71  78 /  10  30  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  77  73  79 /  30  40  30  60
MIAMI            70  78  72  79 /  30  40  30  60
NAPLES           62  78  67  81 /   0  10   0  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....71/JE





000
FXUS62 KMFL 210047
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
EXTENDED SCA SPATIALLY TO INCLUDE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND
TEMPORALLY THROUGH FRI NIGHT FOR ATLANTIC WATERS. NO OTHER CHANGES
TO FORECAST. NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL WILL ONLY SLIGHT COOLING
OVERNIGHT...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ASHORE EAST COAST BEFORE
DAWN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 647 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES...SO KEPT VCSH AT
ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 16Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW CONTINUE
TO DRIFT FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A
FETCH OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXTENDS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
THE NORTHEAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD WATERS.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ON SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS THE WINDS TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY AND COLLIDE WITH MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTED TODAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
NEXT WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE OF THE
TROUGH AND THE LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD STILL PRESENT IN THE
DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS IN MID 50S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING OF THIS COMING WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS IN THE
20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET WILL PERSIST THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGIONAL GULF WATERS AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  76  71  78 /  10  30  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  77  73  79 /  30  40  30  60
MIAMI            70  78  72  79 /  30  40  30  60
NAPLES           62  78  67  81 /   0  10   0  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 202347
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
647 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES...SO KEPT VCSH AT
ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TIP
OF FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO DRIFT FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A
FETCH OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXTENDS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
THE NORTHEAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD WATERS.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ON SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS THE WINDS TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY AND COLLIDE WITH MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTED TODAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
NEXT WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE OF THE
TROUGH AND THE LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD STILL PRESENT IN THE
DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS IN MID 50S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING OF THIS COMING WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE
COUNTIES WHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS IN THE 20 TO
22 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY SEAS OF
4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGIONAL GULF WATERS AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  76  71  78 /  10  30  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  77  73  79 /  30  40  30  60
MIAMI            70  78  72  79 /  20  40  30  60
NAPLES           62  78  67  81 /   0  10   0  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 202347
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
647 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW. THIS WILL
BRING ABOUT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES...SO KEPT VCSH AT
ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 234 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TIP
OF FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO DRIFT FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A
FETCH OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXTENDS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
THE NORTHEAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD WATERS.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ON SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS THE WINDS TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY AND COLLIDE WITH MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTED TODAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
NEXT WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE OF THE
TROUGH AND THE LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD STILL PRESENT IN THE
DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS IN MID 50S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING OF THIS COMING WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE
COUNTIES WHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS IN THE 20 TO
22 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY SEAS OF
4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGIONAL GULF WATERS AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  76  71  78 /  10  30  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  77  73  79 /  30  40  30  60
MIAMI            70  78  72  79 /  20  40  30  60
NAPLES           62  78  67  81 /   0  10   0  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 201934
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
234 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

MOST OF THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST TIP
OF FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUE TO DRIFT FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 12Z FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD WATERS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS A
FETCH OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS EXTENDS INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM
THE NORTHEAST ESPECIALLY OVER THE MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD WATERS.
THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES IN EFFECT UNTIL SUNDAY
EVENING.

THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS INCREASES ON SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS AS THE WINDS TURN
SOUTHEASTERLY AND COLLIDE WITH MORE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

THE WARMING TREND THAT STARTED TODAY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL
NEXT WEDNESDAY, WHEN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE AMPLITUDE OF THE
TROUGH AND THE LARGE ENSEMBLE SPREAD STILL PRESENT IN THE
DIFFERENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. RIGHT NOW THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR LOWS IN MID 50S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING OF THIS COMING WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE
COUNTIES WHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS IN THE 20 TO
22 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z
FRIDAY MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY SEAS OF
4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT
RANGE. ELSEWHERE IN THE REGIONAL GULF WATERS AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION... (ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014) NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS HAVE INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF.
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3KFT COULD
BECOME BKN AT TIMES. WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE...MVFR
CIGS COULD BECOME DOMINANT OVERNIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  76  71  79 /  20  30  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  77  73  80 /  20  50  20  50
MIAMI            70  78  71  81 /  20  40  20  50
NAPLES           63  78  67  81 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ651-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR....84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 201744
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1244 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE TAF. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3KFT COULD BECOME BKN AT TIMES. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE...MVFR CIGS COULD BECOME DOMINANT
OVERNIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AS
THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WARMER AIR OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FILTERS IN FROM THE EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST. FOR
THE NAPLES METRO AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. A FEW SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN NORTH
MIAMI BEACH AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A FEW
MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.

SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEEK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE
FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS. AT THIS TIME, AN AREA OF
MOISTURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  76  71  79 /  20  30  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  77  73  80 /  20  50  20  50
MIAMI            70  78  71  81 /  20  40  20  50
NAPLES           63  78  67  81 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 201744
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1244 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND SPRINKLES OR A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE CHANCES ARE TOO LOW
TO MENTION IN THE TAF. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AT THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
SCT CLOUDS AROUND 3KFT COULD BECOME BKN AT TIMES. WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE...MVFR CIGS COULD BECOME DOMINANT
OVERNIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 945 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AS
THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WARMER AIR OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FILTERS IN FROM THE EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST. FOR
THE NAPLES METRO AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. A FEW SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN NORTH
MIAMI BEACH AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A FEW
MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.

SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEEK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE
FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS. AT THIS TIME, AN AREA OF
MOISTURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  68  76  71  79 /  20  30  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  77  73  80 /  20  50  20  50
MIAMI            70  78  71  81 /  20  40  20  50
NAPLES           63  78  67  81 /  10  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 201445
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
945 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AS
THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WARMER AIR OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FILTERS IN FROM THE EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST. FOR
THE NAPLES METRO AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. A FEW SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN NORTH
MIAMI BEACH AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A FEW
MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.

SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEEK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE
FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS. AT THIS TIME, AN AREA OF
MOISTURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  68  76  71 /  20  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  71  77  73 /  20  20  50  20
MIAMI            77  70  78  71 /  30  20  40  20
NAPLES           75  63  78  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/SHORT TERM...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 201445
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
945 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AS
THE WINDS CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND WARMER AIR OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS FILTERS IN FROM THE EAST. MAX TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S ARE POSSIBLE TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST. FOR
THE NAPLES METRO AREAS TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE THE LOWER
TO MID 70S. A FEW SHOWERS ARE PRESENTLY LOCATED BETWEEN NORTH
MIAMI BEACH AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF COASTAL PALM BEACH COUNTY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WIND SHIFT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. A FEW
MORE SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL
ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.

SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEEK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. BY SATURDAY EVENING THE
FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO A
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING AREAS EAST OF THE
ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF TEXAS. AT THIS TIME, AN AREA OF
MOISTURE LOCATED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MOVES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
INCREASING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  68  76  71 /  20  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  71  77  73 /  20  20  50  20
MIAMI            77  70  78  71 /  30  20  40  20
NAPLES           75  63  78  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/SHORT TERM...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 201159
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
659 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
A LIGHT DRAINAGE FLOW HAS CONTINUED THIS MORNING WITH A
CONVERGENT BAND OF SHOWERS NEAR THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH CIGS
AROUND 4-7 KFT. A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 526 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH BASES
REMAINING AROUND 4-5 KFT. DRAINAGE FLOW (NE AT APF AND NW EAST
COAST) WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY (GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD). THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS FOCUSED JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE SHIFTING ASHORE.
WE WILL INDICATE THIS SHIFT TO THE NE OVER THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES AROUND 14Z. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. /85

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT OVER RUNNING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. RECENT REGIONAL
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST
METRO AREAS. THE COMBINATION OF NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND A LIGHT OFF SHORE DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS CREATING A CONVERGENCE ZONE
RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL ZONE WITH THE AFORMENTIONED SHOWERS.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REGIONAL
WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH A WARMING TREND
FORECAST WITH ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS FORECAST TO HAVE
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR
THE NAPLES METRO AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OBVIOUSLY A
CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS LIKELY PERSISTING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE.
BUT IF THE WIND FORECAST BEARS OUT AT LEAST WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS.

HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE FOR
ALL ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.

THE GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND PUSH THE CURRENTLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND REGIONAL WATERS.
ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW THIS PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT WEAK SHORT
WAVES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AT
THIS TIME WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SO FAR
SUGGEST THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH AND EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF BROWARD AND MIAMI
DADE COUNTIES WHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THAT PERIOD FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND
BROWARD COUNTIES. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS MAINLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE AND/OR
OBSERVATIONS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGIONAL GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  68  76  71 /  20  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  71  77  73 /  20  20  50  20
MIAMI            77  70  78  71 /  30  20  40  20
NAPLES           75  63  78  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 201026
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
526 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH BASES
REMAINING AROUND 4-5 KFT. DRAINAGE FLOW (NE AT APF AND NW EAST
COAST) WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY (GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD). THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS FOCUSED JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE SHIFTING ASHORE.
WE WILL INDICATE THIS SHIFT TO THE NE OVER THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES AROUND 14Z. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT OVER RUNNING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. RECENT REGIONAL
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST
METRO AREAS. THE COMBINATION OF NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND A LIGHT OFF SHORE DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS CREATING A CONVERGENCE ZONE
RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL ZONE WITH THE AFORMENTIONED SHOWERS.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REGIONAL
WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH A WARMING TREND
FORECAST WITH ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS FORECAST TO HAVE
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR
THE NAPLES METRO AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OBVIOUSLY A
CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS LIKELY PERSISTING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE.
BUT IF THE WIND FORECAST BEARS OUT AT LEAST WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS.

HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE FOR
ALL ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.

THE GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND PUSH THE CURRENTLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND REGIONAL WATERS.
ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW THIS PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT WEAK SHORT
WAVES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AT
THIS TIME WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SO FAR
SUGGEST THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH AND EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF BROWARD AND MIAMI
DADE COUNTIES WHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THAT PERIOD FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND
BROWARD COUNTIES. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS MAINLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE AND/OR
OBSERVATIONS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGIONAL GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  68  76  71 /  20  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  71  77  73 /  20  20  50  20
MIAMI            77  70  78  71 /  30  20  40  20
NAPLES           75  63  78  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 201026
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
526 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE BULK OF THE PERIOD WITH BASES
REMAINING AROUND 4-5 KFT. DRAINAGE FLOW (NE AT APF AND NW EAST
COAST) WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY (GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD). THIS SHOULD KEEP THE SHOWERS FOCUSED JUST OFF THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE SHIFTING ASHORE.
WE WILL INDICATE THIS SHIFT TO THE NE OVER THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES AROUND 14Z. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCE OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT OVER RUNNING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. RECENT REGIONAL
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST
METRO AREAS. THE COMBINATION OF NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND A LIGHT OFF SHORE DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS CREATING A CONVERGENCE ZONE
RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL ZONE WITH THE AFORMENTIONED SHOWERS.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REGIONAL
WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH A WARMING TREND
FORECAST WITH ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS FORECAST TO HAVE
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR
THE NAPLES METRO AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OBVIOUSLY A
CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS LIKELY PERSISTING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE.
BUT IF THE WIND FORECAST BEARS OUT AT LEAST WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS.

HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE FOR
ALL ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.

THE GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND PUSH THE CURRENTLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND REGIONAL WATERS.
ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW THIS PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT WEAK SHORT
WAVES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AT
THIS TIME WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SO FAR
SUGGEST THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH AND EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF BROWARD AND MIAMI
DADE COUNTIES WHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THAT PERIOD FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND
BROWARD COUNTIES. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS MAINLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE AND/OR
OBSERVATIONS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGIONAL GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  68  76  71 /  20  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  71  77  73 /  20  20  50  20
MIAMI            77  70  78  71 /  30  20  40  20
NAPLES           75  63  78  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...85/AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 200915
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT OVER RUNNING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. RECENT REGIONAL
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST
METRO AREAS. THE COMBINATION OF NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND A LIGHT OFF SHORE DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS CREATING A CONVERGENCE ZONE
RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL ZONE WITH THE AFORMENTIONED SHOWERS.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REGIONAL
WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH A WARMING TREND
FORECAST WITH ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS FORECAST TO HAVE
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR
THE NAPLES METRO AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OBVIOUSLY A
CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS LIKELY PERSISTING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE.
BUT IF THE WIND FORECAST BEARS OUT AT LEAST WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS.

HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE FOR
ALL ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.

THE GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND PUSH THE CURRENTLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND REGIONAL WATERS.
ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW THIS PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT WEAK SHORT
WAVES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AT
THIS TIME WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SO FAR
SUGGEST THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH AND EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY.


&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF BROWARD AND MIAMI
DADE COUNTIES WHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THAT PERIOD FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND
BROWARD COUNTIES. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS MAINLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE AND/OR
OBSERVATIONS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGIONAL GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  68  76  71 /  20  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  71  77  73 /  20  20  50  20
MIAMI            77  70  78  71 /  30  20  40  20
NAPLES           75  63  78  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 200915
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATES THAT THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS NEARLY STATIONARY AND LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL
CUBA AND INTO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...BUT OVER RUNNING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH STRONG NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS PRODUCING
EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND MUCH OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. RECENT REGIONAL
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST
METRO AREAS. THE COMBINATION OF NORTH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND A LIGHT OFF SHORE DRAINAGE FLOW ACROSS THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS CREATING A CONVERGENCE ZONE
RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL ZONE WITH THE AFORMENTIONED SHOWERS.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE REGIONAL
WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH A WARMING TREND
FORECAST WITH ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS FORECAST TO HAVE
MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S POSSIBLE TODAY AND FOR
THE NAPLES METRO AREAS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. OBVIOUSLY A
CHALLENGING TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE LOWER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS LIKELY PERSISTING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE.
BUT IF THE WIND FORECAST BEARS OUT AT LEAST WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION OFF THE WARMER ATLANTIC WATERS.

HAZARDOUS SEAS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC
WATERS TODAY...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND BROWARD
COUNTIES. HOWEVER...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS POSSIBLE FOR
ALL ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES TODAY.

THE GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
AND LOW LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE EASTERLY AND PUSH THE CURRENTLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOISTURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND REGIONAL WATERS.
ALTHOUGH THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY ZONAL
FLOW THIS PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT WEAK SHORT
WAVES MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN GULF FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW AT
THIS TIME WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY NEXT WEEK IN ADVANCE OF
A COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS SO FAR
SUGGEST THE FRONT PASSING THROUGH AND EXITING THE REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA THANKSGIVING DAY.


&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS...BUT MAINLY EXPECTED EAST OF BROWARD AND MIAMI
DADE COUNTIES WHERE THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT WINDS IN
THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE AND SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THAT PERIOD FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MIAMI DADE AND
BROWARD COUNTIES. FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FEET ARE POSSIBLE WITH WINDS MAINLY IN THE
15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE AND/OR
OBSERVATIONS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY COULD BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. ELSEWHERE IN THE
REGIONAL GULF WATERS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  68  76  71 /  20  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  71  77  73 /  20  20  50  20
MIAMI            77  70  78  71 /  30  20  40  20
NAPLES           75  63  78  67 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 200555
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1255 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BASES REMAINING
AROUND 4-5 KFT. DRAINAGE FLOW (NE AT APF AND NW EAST COAST) WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY (GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD). WE WILL
INDICATE THIS SHIFT TO THE NE OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AROUND
14Z. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014/

UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE TAPERING OFF...AS EXPECTED...BUT
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN THIS EVENING AND ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST. NORTHEAST WIND SURGE APPEARS TO BE
REACHING THE COAST...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN METRO AREAS IS HIGH. ALL 3
EAST COAST CLIMATE SITES ARE AT THEIR DAILY HIGHS AS OF 23Z...AND
TEMPS MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL...DAILY
RECORDS OF 70F AND 67F IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND
MIAMI...RESPECTIVELY...APPEAR IN JEOPARDY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST
OF THE EAST COAST SITES WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...KPBI HAS
ALREADY VEERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND MESONET SITES IN BROWARD
COUNTY HAVE ALSO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY. WILL KEEP A PREVAILING
NORTHERLY WIND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS
NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER
THE WEEK. MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...KEEPING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR
TODAY...AS SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMA MAY BE SET. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW-
LEVELS HAVE COMBINED FOR THICK STRATUS OVERHEAD...LIMIT DIURNAL
WARMING SIGNIFICANT...AND KEEPING AFTN TEMPS IN THE 60S.
INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ALSO OCCURRING SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT 12-24 HOURS WILL
BE THE ANTICIPATED SWITCH FROM NW/OFFSHORE WINDS TO NE/ONSHORE
WINDS. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ENSUE QUICKLY AFTER THE WIND
SWITCH...WHICH WAS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET. THERE ARE
NOW SIGNS THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...MAKING
TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST
MINIMA REFLECT AN EARLIER RETURN OF NE WINDS TO EAST
COAST...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY OVERNIGHT. THIS ALSO
MEANS DAILY MAXIMA MAY OCCUR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...NE WINDS SHOULD CLEARLY ESTABLISH...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST ZONES. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PROVIDING
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH EAST/NORTHEAST BREEZES AND SHOWER CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY
FRIDAY.

AFOREMENTIONED NE/E WINDS AT 20 MPH OR SO WILL AIDE IN RIP CURRENT
PRODUCTION ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY...AND HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS AND NEW TROUGH
DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS...MID/UPR LEVEL WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL TURN TO A WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THE SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC...TRANSITIONING WINDS AT LOW-LEVELS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKS...AND FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RAIN CHANCES BEST SATURDAY AS REMNANT
BOUNDARY FROM THIS WEEKS COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO ANOTHER FROPA AT VERY END OF
FORECAST PERIOD...PERHAPS ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF IT
TUESDAY.

MARINE...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA
STRAITS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER GA/N FL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO EASTERLY BY FRIDAY. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMA AT KFLL AND KMIA ARE 70F FROM 1980 AND 67
FROM 1951...RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO BREAK
BOTH RECORDS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THIS
EVENING...SO EXACT DAILY MAXIMA WONT BE KNOWN ONLY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  69  78  71 /  10  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  71  78  73 /  20  30  40  30
MIAMI            79  70  80  72 /  20  30  40  30
NAPLES           78  63  81  66 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 200555
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1255 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CIGS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH BASES REMAINING
AROUND 4-5 KFT. DRAINAGE FLOW (NE AT APF AND NW EAST COAST) WILL
LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY (GUSTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD). WE WILL
INDICATE THIS SHIFT TO THE NE OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AROUND
14Z. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 707 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014/

UPDATE...
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE APPEARS TO BE TAPERING OFF...AS EXPECTED...BUT
CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN THIS EVENING AND ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST. NORTHEAST WIND SURGE APPEARS TO BE
REACHING THE COAST...AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE LIKELIHOOD OF
ONSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT ACROSS EASTERN METRO AREAS IS HIGH. ALL 3
EAST COAST CLIMATE SITES ARE AT THEIR DAILY HIGHS AS OF 23Z...AND
TEMPS MAY RISE A FEW DEGREES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STILL...DAILY
RECORDS OF 70F AND 67F IN FORT LAUDERDALE AND
MIAMI...RESPECTIVELY...APPEAR IN JEOPARDY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 653 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED MVFR CIGS REMAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST EARLY THIS EVENING
BUT SHOULD GIVE WAY TO VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT. MAIN CONCERN IS THE
TIMING OF THE RETURN OF NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST
OF THE EAST COAST SITES WITH A NORTHERLY TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. HOWEVER...KPBI HAS
ALREADY VEERED TO THE NORTHEAST AND MESONET SITES IN BROWARD
COUNTY HAVE ALSO BECOME NORTHEASTERLY. WILL KEEP A PREVAILING
NORTHERLY WIND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND AMEND AS
NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 PM EST WED NOV 19 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...BEFORE MOVING EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER
THE WEEK. MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION...KEEPING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN
THE FORECAST.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY COOL TEMPERATURES IS THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR
TODAY...AS SOME RECORD LOW MAXIMA MAY BE SET. SEE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE AND NEARLY SATURATED LOW-
LEVELS HAVE COMBINED FOR THICK STRATUS OVERHEAD...LIMIT DIURNAL
WARMING SIGNIFICANT...AND KEEPING AFTN TEMPS IN THE 60S.
INTERMITTENT DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN ALSO OCCURRING SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR NEXT 12-24 HOURS WILL
BE THE ANTICIPATED SWITCH FROM NW/OFFSHORE WINDS TO NE/ONSHORE
WINDS. WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD ENSUE QUICKLY AFTER THE WIND
SWITCH...WHICH WAS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED AFTER SUNSET. THERE ARE
NOW SIGNS THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL THURSDAY MORNING...MAKING
TONIGHTS LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST ONE OF LOW CONFIDENCE. FORECAST
MINIMA REFLECT AN EARLIER RETURN OF NE WINDS TO EAST
COAST...KEEPING TEMPERATURES NEAR STEADY OVERNIGHT. THIS ALSO
MEANS DAILY MAXIMA MAY OCCUR JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

BY THURSDAY...NE WINDS SHOULD CLEARLY ESTABLISH...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
REGION...BUT CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IS STILL
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST ZONES. LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...PROVIDING
SOUTH FLORIDA WITH EAST/NORTHEAST BREEZES AND SHOWER CHANCES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR LATE NOVEMBER BY
FRIDAY.

AFOREMENTIONED NE/E WINDS AT 20 MPH OR SO WILL AIDE IN RIP CURRENT
PRODUCTION ALONG ATLANTIC BEACHES. A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY...AND HAZARDOUS RIP CURRENTS
MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

AS EASTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FLATTENS AND NEW TROUGH
DEEPENS IN THE PLAINS...MID/UPR LEVEL WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WILL TURN TO A WARMING SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. THE SURFACE RIDGE
CENTERED NORTH OF THE REGION WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC...TRANSITIONING WINDS AT LOW-LEVELS TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION. THIS WILL RESULT IN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKS...AND FAIRLY HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RAIN CHANCES BEST SATURDAY AS REMNANT
BOUNDARY FROM THIS WEEKS COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION.

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO POINT TO ANOTHER FROPA AT VERY END OF
FORECAST PERIOD...PERHAPS ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES IN ADVANCE OF IT
TUESDAY.

MARINE...
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER FLORIDA
STRAITS AND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER GA/N FL WILL RESULT IN
MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK. NORTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT
SHOULD TRANSITION TO EASTERLY BY FRIDAY. ROUGH SEAS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN
PLACE THROUGH THURSDAY...AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

CLIMATE...
DAILY RECORD LOW MAXIMA AT KFLL AND KMIA ARE 70F FROM 1980 AND 67
FROM 1951...RESPECTIVELY. ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO BREAK
BOTH RECORDS...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THIS
EVENING...SO EXACT DAILY MAXIMA WONT BE KNOWN ONLY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  69  78  71 /  10  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  71  78  73 /  20  30  40  30
MIAMI            79  70  80  72 /  20  30  40  30
NAPLES           78  63  81  66 /   0  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ651-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....71/JE
AVIATION...10/CD




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