Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KMFL 250103
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
903 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

...DRYING OUT WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE THIS WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...A FEW SHOWERS CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST BUT THEY
ARE LIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO FADE AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE
IN FROM THE WEST. THE MIAMI SOUNDING SHOWS THAT THE PWAT HAS
FALLEN TO 1.64 INCHES AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MAX RAINFALL AMOUNT TODAY WAS REGISTERED JUST EAST OF DOWNTOWN
HOMESTEAD...WITH A MESONET SITE REGISTERING 5.11 INCHES. SOME
MINOR STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN SE MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY,
BUT THE HEAVIEST RAIN STAYED JUST OFF THE COAST TO PREVENT MORE
SERIOUS FLOODING FROM OCCURRING.

A NICE WEEKEND IS IN STORE AHEAD WITH A RETURN TO SUNSHINE!
/GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF BKN/OVC CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES OVER WRN BAHAMAS IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST TERMINAL SITES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z-05Z.
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS.
FEW/SCT CLOUDS 3000-4000 FT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. WINDS THIS
EVENING NE 15-20 KT BECOMING MORE N TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES INFLUENCING THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...OVER-RUNNING ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
CONCENTRATED ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY AND SOUTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A DRYING TREND OVER
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DRIER AIR STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE STRAITS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DRYING TREND. THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
LATEST HRRR RUN...SEEMED A LITTLE TOO FAST IN THE DRYING TREND AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT BY 12Z SATURDAY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NO SHOWERS FOR
THE PENINSULA.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SATURDAY AND COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
RIP CURRENT RISK WITH UPDATED FORECAST AND CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

MARINE...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS IS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SCA IS MAINLY FOR WINDS
ABOVE 20 KNOTS...IN THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE...AND MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND FORECAST...BUT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND WEST OF KEY WEST.

FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...REGIONAL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE NOTED
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. IN ADDITION SEAS
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY AND FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THEREAFTER.

AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  81  68  81 /  10  10  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  81  70  82 /  20  10  10  10
MIAMI            72  82  68  83 /  20  10   0  10
NAPLES           65  81  64  83 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 242332
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF BKN/OVC CLOUDS BETWEEN 3000 AND 5000 FT ASSOCIATED
WITH LOW PRES OVER WRN BAHAMAS IS CURRENTLY CLOSE TO THE EAST
COAST TERMINAL SITES AND SHOULD CLEAR THE COAST BETWEEN 03Z-05Z.
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR DESPITE THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS.
FEW/SCT CLOUDS 3000-4000 FT EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY. WINDS THIS
EVENING NE 15-20 KT BECOMING MORE N TOWARDS DAYBREAK AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES INFLUENCING THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...OVER-RUNNING ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
CONCENTRATED ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY AND SOUTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A DRYING TREND OVER
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DRIER AIR STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE STRAITS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DRYING TREND. THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
LATEST HRRR RUN...SEEMED A LITTLE TOO FAST IN THE DRYING TREND AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT BY 12Z SATURDAY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NO SHOWERS FOR
THE PENINSULA.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SATURDAY AND COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
RIP CURRENT RISK WITH UPDATED FORECAST AND CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.

MARINE...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS IS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SCA IS MAINLY FOR WINDS
ABOVE 20 KNOTS...IN THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE...AND MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND FORECAST...BUT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND WEST OF KEY WEST.

FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...REGIONAL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE NOTED
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. IN ADDITION SEAS
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY AND FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THEREAFTER.

AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  81  68  81 /  10  10  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  81  70  82 /  20  10  10  10
MIAMI            72  82  68  83 /  20  10   0  10
NAPLES           65  81  64  83 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 241925
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES INFLUENCING THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WITH STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE REGION...OVER-RUNNING ACROSS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO GENERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS
CONCENTRATED ACROSS BISCAYNE BAY AND SOUTHEAST MIAMI DADE COUNTY.
THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE IS FOR A DRYING TREND OVER
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF MID TO UPPER
LEVEL DRIER AIR STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE STRAITS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST SHOULD ALL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE DRYING TREND. THE GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
LATEST HRRR RUN...SEEMED A LITTLE TOO FAST IN THE DRYING TREND AND
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA IS INDICATED IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. BUT BY 12Z SATURDAY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH NO SHOWERS FOR
THE PENINSULA.

THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
SATURDAY AND COULD LINGER A BIT LONGER...MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE
RIP CURRENT RISK WITH UPDATED FORECAST AND CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL SATURDAY THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH MAINLY
CLIMATOLOGICAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.


&&

.MARINE...

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS IS THROUGH
12Z SATURDAY. FOR THE GULF WATERS...THE SCA IS MAINLY FOR WINDS
ABOVE 20 KNOTS...IN THE 20 TO 22 KNOT RANGE...AND MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE OFF SHORE WATERS AND THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
WIND FORECAST...BUT REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND WEST OF KEY WEST.

FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS...REGIONAL WINDS IN EXCESS OF 20 KNOTS ARE NOTED
THE ATLANTIC WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY. IN ADDITION SEAS
ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z SATURDAY AND FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THEREAFTER.

AS CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  81  68  81 /  20  10  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  81  70  82 /  40  10  10  10
MIAMI            72  82  68  83 /  50  10   0  10
NAPLES           65  81  64  83 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 241803
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
203 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
HEAVIER RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS CONTINUE TO PULL TO THE SOUTH AND AWAY FROM THE
EAST COAST SITES. REMOVED SHRA MENTION FROM ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR
KTMB FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST AND AWAY FROM THE AREA...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE TRENDS
SHOW THE DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AWAY FROM ANY LINGERING SHRAS. NORTHEAST WINDS SHOULD THEN TURN
MORE TO THE NORTH LATER THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR ARE RANGING FROM JUST UNDER ONE INCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS BISCAYNE
BAY. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
THESE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
TAKING THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN WITH IT. UPDATED
POP...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  82  69  82 /  20  10  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  82  71  83 /  40  10  10  10
MIAMI            71  82  69  83 /  50  10   0  10
NAPLES           66  82  65  82 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 241422
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1022 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR ARE RANGING FROM JUST UNDER ONE INCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS BISCAYNE
BAY. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
THESE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
TAKING THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN WITH IT. UPDATED
POP...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE BAHAMAN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT.
AS IT DOES...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ONSHORE LEAVING ONLY SHRAS EXPECTED FOR EAST
COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO VCSH INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  70  82  69 /  40  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  73  82  71 /  60  30  10   0
MIAMI            80  71  82  69 /  70  30  10   0
NAPLES           85  66  82  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 241422
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1022 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS MORNING. A FEW AREAS OF
SHOWERS ROTATING COUNTER-CLOCKWISE AROUND THE LOW CONTINUE TO
SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS THUS FAR ARE RANGING FROM JUST UNDER ONE INCH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF DOWNTOWN MIAMI TO OVER AN INCH ACROSS BISCAYNE
BAY. INTERMITTENT LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
THESE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN BEGIN
TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AS THE LOW PUSHES FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
TAKING THE MAIN SHIELD OF RAIN WITH IT. UPDATED
POP...WEATHER...AND QPF GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST RADAR AND
SHORT TERM GUIDANCE TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 807 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE BAHAMAN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT.
AS IT DOES...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ONSHORE LEAVING ONLY SHRAS EXPECTED FOR EAST
COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO VCSH INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  70  82  69 /  40  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  73  82  71 /  60  30  10   0
MIAMI            80  71  82  69 /  70  30  10   0
NAPLES           85  66  82  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 241207
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
807 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ENTERING THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE BAHAMAN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT.
AS IT DOES...BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND
TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY APPEARS TO
WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES ONSHORE LEAVING ONLY SHRAS EXPECTED FOR EAST
COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO VCSH INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD AS THE LOW DEEPENS AS IT PUSHES TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  70  82  69 /  50  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  73  82  71 /  80  30  10   0
MIAMI            80  71  82  69 /  90  30  10   0
NAPLES           85  66  82  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 240910 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION... A LOW, DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS, WILL BRING
RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING, THE BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST THIS EVENING, WHEN GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 30KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BRING BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS
TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT ANY GIVEN TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
OF THE TIMING, AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE EXPECTED IFR
OCCURRENCE, HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  70  82  69 /  50  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  73  82  71 /  80  30  10   0
MIAMI            80  71  82  69 /  90  30  10   0
NAPLES           85  66  82  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 240749
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LOW, DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS, WILL BRING RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING, THE BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST THIS EVENING, WHEN GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 30KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BRING BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT ANY GIVEN TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING, AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE EXPECTED
IFR OCCURRENCE, HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  70  82  69 /  50  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  73  82  71 /  80  30  10   0
MIAMI            80  71  82  69 /  90  30  10   0
NAPLES           85  66  82  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 240749
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR AND RAP ANALYSIS FROM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWED DEEP
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS CUBA...THE FLORIDA STRAITS...AND
SOUTH FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND
THE GULF OF MEXICO.  A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE PENINSULA. AN AREA OF CONVECTION WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS SOUTHWARD TO CENTRAL CUBA AND MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST. 850MB FLOW WAS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS...AND THESE STRONGER
WINDS WERE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THIS WEAK JET WILL PROMOTE HIGHER RAINFALL EFFICIENCY.
RAINFALL COVERAGE WAS INCREASING ACROSS THE KEYS AND LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS...AND A BAND OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS BAND.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN TIP OF
CUBA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL DIG SOUTH
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL DEEPEN THE FRONTAL WAVE AS IT MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS THE REGION REMAINS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. SOME
WARM AIR ADVECTION TAKE PLACE TODAY...BUT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE KEYS AND FLORIDA STRAITS. SO LEFT OUT
MENTION OF THUNDER. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL FALL ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER
MIAMI-DADE AND SOUTHEAST BROWARD COUNTIES. A SHARP POP GRADIENT WILL
EXIST AGAIN TODAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS GLADES COUNTY
SOUTHWEST TO NAPLES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 80 TO THE MID 80S.

THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE AND HAS SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KNOTS OVER THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE DROPS TO AROUND 1000MB. THE
OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS LOWER...WITH WINDS IN THE 25-30 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT. THERE IS NO COLD AIR
ADVECTION...SO WILL NOT GO WITH A GALE AT THIS TIME. FOR THE AREAS
ALONG THE EAST COAST...WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH WITH GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 35 MPH MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SUBSIDING. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC
AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND SOUTH
FLORIDA. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S
TO LOW 60S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF ON SATURDAY WILL BUILD EASTWARD
TO NORTH OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AND WINDS WILL VEER TO THE
NORTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WITH EASTERLY FLOW AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL SLOWLY RISE BACK INTO THE
MID 70S FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW.
HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...
A LOW, DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS, WILL BRING RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING, THE BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST THIS EVENING, WHEN GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 30KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BRING BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT ANY GIVEN TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING, AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE EXPECTED
IFR OCCURRENCE, HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL WAVE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-30 KNOTS ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND INTO THE BAHAMAS TONIGHT AND THEN
INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS THIS EVENING AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION ON
SUNDAY AND ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  70  82  69 /  50  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  73  82  71 /  80  30  10   0
MIAMI            80  71  82  69 /  90  30  10   0
NAPLES           85  66  82  65 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 240552
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
152 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
A LOW, DEVELOPING OVER THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS, WILL BRING RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING, THE BEGIN TO MOVE
AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WINDS LOOK TO BE THE
STRONGEST THIS EVENING, WHEN GUSTS LOOK TO BE AROUND 30KTS OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST. THROUGHOUT THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BRING BRIEF IFR
CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA AT ANY GIVEN TIME. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING, AND THE SHORT DURATION OF THE EXPECTED
IFR OCCURRENCE, HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

..HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLOODING MIAMI-DADE INTO BROWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...

UPDATE...GPS MET DATA SHOWS THAT A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT
BISECTS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PWAT CURRENTLY AT OKEECHOBEE IS
REGISTERING ONLY 0.70 INCHES WHILE IT`S 1.9 INCHES AT MIAMI AND
2.1 INCHES AT CARD SOUND.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR SE GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE ACROSS
THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT THEN INTO THE BAHAMAS BY FRI EVENING. AS IT
DOES, MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SE FL/KEYS WILL LIKELY INCREASE A
TAD...PUSHING PWATS POSSIBLY TO ~2.25 INCHES FRIDAY (NEAR THE
99TH PERCENTILE HISTORICALLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)...AND WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW, COASTAL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A WET NEXT 24 HR ACROSS THE
MIAMI METRO AND INTO THE FT. LAUDERDALE METRO. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE RAIN. CURRENT THINKING IS THE BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL FALL OVER MIAMI-DADE INTO BROWARD COUNTY. 12Z ECMWF BRINGS
THE LOW CENTER SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO SE FLORIDA AND THUS HAS QPF
FURTHER INLAND AND NORTH COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS. HOWEVER, THE
18Z GFS FOLLOWED THE ECMWF TREND. SO THE TREND LOOKS WET FOR FAR
SOUTHEAST FL.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PWATS ALONG WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND AN
INCOMING JET (PRODUCING SLIGHT DIVERGENCE ALOFT EASTERN AREAS),
COULD SPELL HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WE ARE EYEING MIAMI-DADE
AND BROWARD FOR POTENTIAL OF TRAINING BANDS. WE`VE SEEN IT
BEFORE...EXCESSIVE RAINS AND FLOODING COULD RESULT. CONTEMPLATED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MIAMI-DADE AND POSSIBLY BROWARD...BUT BELIEVE
THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST FRIDAY MORNING-AFTERNOON, SO WILL HOLD OFF
AND HAVE THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THEIR ASSESSMENT.
/GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NORTHWARD. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT BY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. MOST
OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO STAY CONCENTRATED OVER MIAMI-DADE AND
PORTIONS OF BROWARD COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO THE FRONT, THIS WIND CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASING AND IT IS
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT THERE IS STILL A RELATIVELY
LARGE UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR.

HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH A LESSER RISK OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY INTO 00Z SATURDAY.

MARINE...

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
SOUTH, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY, AND EXTENDING
INTO 00Z SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 200 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  81  70  82  69 /  40  20  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  73  82  71 /  60  30  10   0
MIAMI            81  71  82  68 /  70  30  10   0
NAPLES           83  66  82  65 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630-650-
     651-670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 240018
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

...HEAVY RAIN/POTENTIAL FLOODING MIAMI-DADE INTO BROWARD THROUGH FRIDAY...

.UPDATE...GPS MET DATA SHOWS THAT A TIGHT MOISTURE GRADIENT
BISECTS SOUTH FLORIDA. THE PWAT CURRENTLY AT OKEECHOBEE IS
REGISTERING ONLY 0.70 INCHES WHILE IT`S 1.9 INCHES AT MIAMI AND
2.1 INCHES AT CARD SOUND.

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE FAR SE GULF IS FORECAST TO MOVE ENE ACROSS
THE FL STRAITS TONIGHT THEN INTO THE BAHAMAS BY FRI EVENING. AS IT
DOES, MOISTURE ACROSS FAR SE FL/KEYS WILL LIKELY INCREASE A
TAD...PUSHING PWATS POSSIBLY TO ~2.25 INCHES FRIDAY (NEAR THE
99TH PERCENTILE HISTORICALLY FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR)...AND WITH
STRENGTHENING NORTHEAST WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW, COASTAL
CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A WET NEXT 24 HR ACROSS THE
MIAMI METRO AND INTO THE FT. LAUDERDALE METRO. THERE WILL BE A
SHARP CUT-OFF TO THE RAIN. CURRENT THINKING IS THE BULK OF THE
RAIN WILL FALL OVER MIAMI-DADE INTO BROWARD COUNTY. 12Z ECMWF BRINGS
THE LOW CENTER SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO SE FLORIDA AND THUS HAS QPF
FURTHER INLAND AND NORTH COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS. HOWEVER, THE
18Z GFS FOLLOWED THE ECMWF TREND. SO THE TREND LOOKS WET FOR FAR
SOUTHEAST FL.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PWATS ALONG WITH COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND AN
INCOMING JET (PRODUCING SLIGHT DIVERGENCE ALOFT EASTERN AREAS),
COULD SPELL HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WE ARE EYEING MIAMI-DADE
AND BROWARD FOR POTENTIAL OF TRAINING BANDS. WE`VE SEEN IT
BEFORE...EXCESSIVE RAINS AND FLOODING COULD RESULT. CONTEMPLATED A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MIAMI-DADE AND POSSIBLY BROWARD...BUT BELIEVE
THIS POTENTIAL IS HIGHEST FRIDAY MORNING-AFTERNOON, SO WILL HOLD OFF
AND HAVE THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAKE THEIR ASSESSMENT.
/GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS (CEILINGS 2,500 TO 5,000 FT) EXPECTED
DESPITE THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. HOWEVER,
CEILING/VSBYS IN OCCASIONAL SHRA WILL BE MARGINAL FOR A GOOD PORTION
OF THIS TIME, ESPECIALLY FLL/MIA AREA TERMINALS WHERE DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. PBI AND APF WILL REMAIN VFR WITH DRIER AIR AND
LITTLE TO NO SHRA IN THESE AREAS. SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA PULLS AWAY. NE WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15G25KT OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
/MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NORTHWARD. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT BY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. MOST
OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO STAY CONCENTRATED OVER MIAMI-DADE AND
PORTIONS OF BROWARD COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO THE FRONT, THIS WIND CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASING AND IT IS
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT THERE IS STILL A RELATIVELY
LARGE UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR.

HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH A LESSER RISK OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY INTO 00Z SATURDAY.

MARINE...

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
SOUTH, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY, AND EXTENDING
INTO 00Z SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 200 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

AVIATION (ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014)

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRAS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES.
BELIEVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SHRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN COVERING WITH VCSH. ISOLATED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHRAS BUT
MAINLY PREVAILED WITH VFR. MAINLY ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LAMP
GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW AT ALL EAST
COAST SITES EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHICH SHOULD SEE THE INCREASE EARLIER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  70  82 /  20  40  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  81  73  82 /  50  60  30  10
MIAMI            74  81  71  82 /  60  70  30  10
NAPLES           69  83  66  82 /  10  20  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231902
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
302 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NORTHWARD. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT BY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. MOST
OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO STAY CONCENTRATED OVER MIAMI-DADE AND
PORTIONS OF BROWARD COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO THE FRONT, THIS WIND CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASING AND IT IS
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT THERE IS STILL A RELATIVELY
LARGE UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR.

HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH A LESSER RISK OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY INTO 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
SOUTH, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY, AND EXTENDING
INTO 00Z SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 200 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION (ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014)

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRAS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES.
BELIEVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SHRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN COVERING WITH VCSH. ISOLATED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHRAS BUT
MAINLY PREVAILED WITH VFR. MAINLY ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LAMP
GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW AT ALL EAST
COAST SITES EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHICH SHOULD SEE THE INCREASE EARLIER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  70  82 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  81  73  82 /  50  30  30  10
MIAMI            74  81  71  82 /  50  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  83  66  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231902
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
302 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NORTHWARD. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT BY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. MOST
OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO STAY CONCENTRATED OVER MIAMI-DADE AND
PORTIONS OF BROWARD COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO THE FRONT, THIS WIND CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASING AND IT IS
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT THERE IS STILL A RELATIVELY
LARGE UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR.

HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH A LESSER RISK OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY INTO 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
SOUTH, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY, AND EXTENDING
INTO 00Z SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 200 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION (ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014)

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRAS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES.
BELIEVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SHRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN COVERING WITH VCSH. ISOLATED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHRAS BUT
MAINLY PREVAILED WITH VFR. MAINLY ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LAMP
GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW AT ALL EAST
COAST SITES EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHICH SHOULD SEE THE INCREASE EARLIER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  70  82 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  81  73  82 /  50  30  30  10
MIAMI            74  81  71  82 /  50  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  83  66  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231814
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRAS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES.
BELIEVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SHRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN COVERING WITH VCSH.
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING
SHRAS BUT MAINLY PREVAILED WITH VFR. MAINLY ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
WITH LAMP GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW
AT ALL EAST COAST SITES EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHICH SHOULD SEE THE
INCREASE EARLIER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...

A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT BETWEEN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PW OF 1.87
IN. WINDS IN THE LOWER 2 KM ARE MAINLY EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO PUSH
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. THIS CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST
LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW OF THESE BANDS COULD STILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED URBAN
FLOODING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW 70S OVER MIAMI-
DADE AND THE MID 60S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES ARE WEAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR (AROUND -5.5C/KM).
SIMILARLY, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -5 TO -6C. THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER SOME
DRYING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AROUND 700 MB WITH A LARGE DRYING
OCCURRING AROUND 500 MB BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  69  81 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  82  73  82 /  50  30  30  10
MIAMI            73  82  71  81 /  50  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  82  66  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

UPDATE...71/JE
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231814
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRAS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES.
BELIEVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SHRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN COVERING WITH VCSH.
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING
SHRAS BUT MAINLY PREVAILED WITH VFR. MAINLY ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
WITH LAMP GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW
AT ALL EAST COAST SITES EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHICH SHOULD SEE THE
INCREASE EARLIER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...

A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT BETWEEN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PW OF 1.87
IN. WINDS IN THE LOWER 2 KM ARE MAINLY EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO PUSH
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. THIS CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST
LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW OF THESE BANDS COULD STILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED URBAN
FLOODING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW 70S OVER MIAMI-
DADE AND THE MID 60S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES ARE WEAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR (AROUND -5.5C/KM).
SIMILARLY, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -5 TO -6C. THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER SOME
DRYING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AROUND 700 MB WITH A LARGE DRYING
OCCURRING AROUND 500 MB BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  69  81 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  82  73  82 /  50  30  30  10
MIAMI            73  82  71  81 /  50  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  82  66  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

UPDATE...71/JE
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231330
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT BETWEEN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PW OF 1.87
IN. WINDS IN THE LOWER 2 KM ARE MAINLY EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO PUSH
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. THIS CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST
LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW OF THESE BANDS COULD STILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED URBAN
FLODDING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW 70S OVER MIAMI-
DADE AND THE MID 60S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES ARE WEAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR (AROUND -5.5C/KM).
SIMILARLY, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -5 TO -6C. THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER SOME
DRYING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AROUND 700 MB WITH A LARGE DRYING
OCCURRING AROUND 500 MB BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  72  81  69 /  50  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  75  82  73 /  80  60  60  30
MIAMI            82  73  82  71 /  90  70  70  30
NAPLES           84  69  82  66 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR/THU WX BRIEFING...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231221
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
821 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANT SHRAS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE VCSH REGIME
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SAME TIME A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ENHANCING
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY ACROSS KFLL AND SOUTHWARD. MAINLY
VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MVFR THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING WITH SHRAS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEAR WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
NAPLES. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PALM
BEACH AND NORTHEAST BROWARD COUNTY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN FALLING ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

TODAY...A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THUS A SHARP POP GRADIENT EXISTS AS WELL. POP FORECAST RANGES
FROM NEAR 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO NEAR 0 PERCENT
ACROSS GLADES COUNTY. THE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM WEST PALM BEACH
TO NEAR NAPLES WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OVERLAYS DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL WILL PROMOTE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LEAD TO LIFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
THESE INGREDIENTS COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP FOR BROWARD
OR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FALLING
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS UNDER TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 80 TO THE LOW 80S DUE TO COVER AND
RAIN.

TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAS
WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. DUE TO THE
GFS DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT SHUNTS THE
DEEP MOISTURE TO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE ECMWF SEEMS
MORE REALISTIC WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG THE EAST COAST MAINLY FROM
FORT LAUDERDALE SOUTHWARD.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE REGION...WITH
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE METRO AREAS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN SOUTH OF THE HIGH...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.


MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY TO 20-25 KNOTS BY TONIGHT.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5-6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A NON TROPICAL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  72  81  69 /  50  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  75  82  73 /  80  60  60  30
MIAMI            82  73  82  71 /  90  70  70  30
NAPLES           84  69  82  66 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 230843
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
443 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEAR WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
NAPLES. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PALM
BEACH AND NORTHEAST BROWARD COUNTY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN FALLING ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

TODAY...A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THUS A SHARP POP GRADIENT EXISTS AS WELL. POP FORECAST RANGES
FROM NEAR 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO NEAR 0 PERCENT
ACROSS GLADES COUNTY. THE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM WEST PALM BEACH
TO NEAR NAPLES WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OVERLAYS DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL WILL PROMOTE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LEAD TO LIFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
THESE INGREDIENTS COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP FOR BROWARD
OR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FALLING
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS UNDER TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 80 TO THE LOW 80S DUE TO COVER AND
RAIN.

TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAS
WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. DUE TO THE
GFS DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT SHUNTS THE
DEEP MOISTURE TO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE ECMWF SEEMS
MORE REALISTIC WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG THE EAST COAST MAINLY FROM
FORT LAUDERDALE SOUTHWARD.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE REGION...WITH
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE METRO AREAS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN SOUTH OF THE HIGH...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMETIME TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, THIS WILL ACT AS A TRIGGER TO KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR ALMOST ALL THE
SITES. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE KPBI AND KAPF, WHERE THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS, OR PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT PASSES, WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. BY MID-DAY, THEY
WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 12 KTS, WITH THE DIRECTION PENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY TO 20-25 KNOTS BY TONIGHT.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5-6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A NON TROPICAL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  72  81  69 /  30  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  75  82  73 /  80  60  60  30
MIAMI            82  73  82  71 /  90  70  70  30
NAPLES           84  69  82  66 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 230529
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
129 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMETIME TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, THIS WILL ACT AS A TRIGGER TO KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR ALMOST ALL THE
SITES. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE KPBI AND KAPF, WHERE THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS, OR PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT PASSES, WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. BY MID-DAY, THEY
WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 12 KTS, WITH THE DIRECTION PENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHIELD HAS INVADED AREAS SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR
ALLEY WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO REFLECT AN EVEN TIGHTER POP GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF. THIS NON-TROPICAL LOW WILL
MOVE ENE TOWARDS THE FL STRAITS AND POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO SOUTH FL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY NEAR THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THROUGH
FRIDAY. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP...PARTIALLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS/DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTION IN SE GULF. SHOWERS NOW FIRING OVER PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF.
MUCH DRIER AIR...NORTH OF NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG
I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. TIGHT N-S POP GRADIENT EXHIBITS NEAR-
CERTAIN RAIN OVER THE EVERGLADES/SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE...TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY.

WITH BOUNDARY NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...TIGHT MOISTURE/POP
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS FORECAST TO
HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL POUR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PENINSULA
THURDAY AND THURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HINTING THIS AFTERNOON THAT
DRIER AIR MAY MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...MEANING THE AREAS NORTH OF A NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH
LINE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...WITH EVEN METRO BROWARD SEEING
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THAN POINTS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DEEP ULVL TROF OVER EASTERN
CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES...AN H5
SHRTWV TROF IN THE GULF WILL DRAG ENEWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHRTV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL RIDE
ACROSS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AS PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
2.5 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...AS A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE OR LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON
IN THIS REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO
SOUTH FLORIDA MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE
WET WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
THRUSDAY AND FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  73  82  72 /  30  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  76  82  75 /  70  60  70  50
MIAMI            83  74  82  73 /  80  70  80  50
NAPLES           86  70  84  69 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 222355
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHIELD HAS INVADED AREAS SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR
ALLEY WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO REFLECT AN EVEN TIGHTER POP GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF. THIS NON-TROPICAL LOW WILL
MOVE ENE TOWARDS THE FL STRAITS AND POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO SOUTH FL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY NEAR THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THROUGH
FRIDAY. /GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS TONIGHT BUT PREVAIL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITY AND CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER A BIT ON THU...BUT
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ABOVE IFR. SO ADDED PREVAILING MVFR VIS/CIGS
FOR THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS FOR THU ALONG WITH VCTS.
BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER TSRA, BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO
TIME SO WAS NOT ADDED. FOR KPBI AND KAPF, DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
TO MOVE IN SO MAINTAINED ONLY VCSH THERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT THEN PREVAIL NORTHEAST AT NEAR 10 KT ON THU. THX CWSU
MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP...PARTIALLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS/DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTION IN SE GULF. SHOWERS NOW FIRING OVER PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF.
MUCH DRIER AIR...NORTH OF NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG
I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. TIGHT N-S POP GRADIENT EXHIBITS NEAR-
CERTAIN RAIN OVER THE EVERGLADES/SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE...TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY.

WITH BOUNDARY NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...TIGHT MOISTURE/POP
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS FORECAST TO
HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL POUR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PENINSULA
THURDAY AND THURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HINTING THIS AFTERNOON THAT
DRIER AIR MAY MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...MEANING THE AREAS NORTH OF A NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH
LINE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...WITH EVEN METRO BROWARD SEEING
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THAN POINTS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DEEP ULVL TROF OVER EASTERN
CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES...AN H5
SHRTWV TROF IN THE GULF WILL DRAG ENEWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHRTV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL RIDE
ACROSS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AS PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
2.5 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...AS A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE OR LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON
IN THIS REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO
SOUTH FLORIDA MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE
WET WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHIELD SHOULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SITES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE VCTS MENTION FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE PREDOMINANT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT
A FAIRLY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE KEPT VCSH MENTION OUT FOR
KPBI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
THRUSDAY AND FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  82  73  82 /  40  30  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  82  76  82 /  60  70  60  70
MIAMI            72  83  74  82 /  70  80  70  80
NAPLES           70  86  70  84 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 222355
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHIELD HAS INVADED AREAS SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR
ALLEY WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO REFLECT AN EVEN TIGHTER POP GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF. THIS NON-TROPICAL LOW WILL
MOVE ENE TOWARDS THE FL STRAITS AND POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO SOUTH FL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY NEAR THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THROUGH
FRIDAY. /GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS TONIGHT BUT PREVAIL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITY AND CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER A BIT ON THU...BUT
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ABOVE IFR. SO ADDED PREVAILING MVFR VIS/CIGS
FOR THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS FOR THU ALONG WITH VCTS.
BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER TSRA, BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO
TIME SO WAS NOT ADDED. FOR KPBI AND KAPF, DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
TO MOVE IN SO MAINTAINED ONLY VCSH THERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT THEN PREVAIL NORTHEAST AT NEAR 10 KT ON THU. THX CWSU
MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP...PARTIALLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS/DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTION IN SE GULF. SHOWERS NOW FIRING OVER PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF.
MUCH DRIER AIR...NORTH OF NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG
I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. TIGHT N-S POP GRADIENT EXHIBITS NEAR-
CERTAIN RAIN OVER THE EVERGLADES/SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE...TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY.

WITH BOUNDARY NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...TIGHT MOISTURE/POP
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS FORECAST TO
HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL POUR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PENINSULA
THURDAY AND THURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HINTING THIS AFTERNOON THAT
DRIER AIR MAY MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...MEANING THE AREAS NORTH OF A NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH
LINE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...WITH EVEN METRO BROWARD SEEING
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THAN POINTS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DEEP ULVL TROF OVER EASTERN
CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES...AN H5
SHRTWV TROF IN THE GULF WILL DRAG ENEWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHRTV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL RIDE
ACROSS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AS PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
2.5 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...AS A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE OR LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON
IN THIS REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO
SOUTH FLORIDA MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE
WET WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHIELD SHOULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SITES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE VCTS MENTION FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE PREDOMINANT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT
A FAIRLY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE KEPT VCSH MENTION OUT FOR
KPBI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
THRUSDAY AND FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  82  73  82 /  40  30  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  82  76  82 /  60  70  60  70
MIAMI            72  83  74  82 /  70  80  70  80
NAPLES           70  86  70  84 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221944
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP...PARTIALLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS/DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTION IN SE GULF. SHOWERS NOW FIRING OVER PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF.
MUCH DRIER AIR...NORTH OF NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG
I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. TIGHT N-S POP GRADIENT EXHIBITS NEAR-
CERTAIN RAIN OVER THE EVERGLADES/SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE...TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY.

WITH BOUNDARY NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...TIGHT MOISTURE/POP
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS FORECAST TO
HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL POUR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PENINSULA
THURDAY AND THURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HINTING THIS AFTERNOON THAT
DRIER AIR MAY MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...MEANING THE AREAS NORTH OF A NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH
LINE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...WITH EVEN METRO BROWARD SEEING
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THAN POINTS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DEEP ULVL TROF OVER EASTERN
CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES...AN H5
SHRTWV TROF IN THE GULF WILL DRAG ENEWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHRTV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL RIDE
ACROSS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AS PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
2.5 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...AS A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE OR LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON
IN THIS REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO
SOUTH FLORIDA MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE
WET WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHIELD SHOULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SITES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE VCTS MENTION FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE PREDOMINANT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT
A FAIRLY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE KEPT VCSH MENTION OUT FOR
KPBI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
THRUSDAY AND FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  82  73 /  40  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  73  82  76 /  60  60  70  60
MIAMI            83  72  83  74 /  70  70  80  70
NAPLES           84  70  86  70 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221944
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP...PARTIALLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS/DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTION IN SE GULF. SHOWERS NOW FIRING OVER PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF.
MUCH DRIER AIR...NORTH OF NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG
I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. TIGHT N-S POP GRADIENT EXHIBITS NEAR-
CERTAIN RAIN OVER THE EVERGLADES/SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE...TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY.

WITH BOUNDARY NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...TIGHT MOISTURE/POP
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS FORECAST TO
HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL POUR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PENINSULA
THURDAY AND THURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HINTING THIS AFTERNOON THAT
DRIER AIR MAY MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...MEANING THE AREAS NORTH OF A NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH
LINE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...WITH EVEN METRO BROWARD SEEING
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THAN POINTS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DEEP ULVL TROF OVER EASTERN
CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES...AN H5
SHRTWV TROF IN THE GULF WILL DRAG ENEWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHRTV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL RIDE
ACROSS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AS PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
2.5 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...AS A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE OR LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON
IN THIS REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO
SOUTH FLORIDA MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE
WET WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHIELD SHOULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SITES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE VCTS MENTION FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE PREDOMINANT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT
A FAIRLY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE KEPT VCSH MENTION OUT FOR
KPBI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
THRUSDAY AND FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  82  73 /  40  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  73  82  76 /  60  60  70  60
MIAMI            83  72  83  74 /  70  70  80  70
NAPLES           84  70  86  70 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221821
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
221 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHIELD SHOULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SITES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE VCTS MENTION FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE PREDOMINANT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT
A FAIRLY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE KEPT VCSH MENTION OUT FOR
KPBI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT BY LATER THIS MORNING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT. MAIN HAZARD TODAY IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...A FEW SPOTS MAY RECEIVE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LEADING TO URBAN FLOODING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS DECLARED LAST NIGHT
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. PWATS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE AROUND 1
INCH AROUND TAMPA AND 1.8 INCHES AT NAPLES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD
COVER ONCE AGAIN.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LAKE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND PICK UP A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TD 9. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IF THIS
SCENARIO PANS OUT.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END OF
THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON IN THIS
REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE WET WEATHER COULD
BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  73  81 /  30  30  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  81  75  82 /  50  60  40  70
MIAMI            72  80  73  81 /  40  70  40  80
NAPLES           71  84  70  82 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221308
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
908 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT BY LATER THIS MORNING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT. MAIN HAZARD TODAY IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...A FEW SPOTS MAY RECEIVE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LEADING TO URBAN FLOODING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
COMBINED WITH A DEEP MOISTURE-RICH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSRAS AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST COAST
SITES. COVERED WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW AND WILL AMEND THROUGH THE
DAY AS NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS DECLARED LAST NIGHT
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. PWATS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE AROUND 1
INCH AROUND TAMPA AND 1.8 INCHES AT NAPLES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD
COVER ONCE AGAIN.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LAKE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND PICK UP A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TD 9. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IF THIS
SCENARIO PANS OUT.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END OF
THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON IN THIS
REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE WET WEATHER COULD
BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  73  81  73 /  60  50  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  81  75 /  60  60  60  50
MIAMI            83  73  82  73 /  70  60  70  70
NAPLES           84  71  85  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221158
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
758 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
COMBINED WITH A DEEP MOISTURE-RICH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSRAS AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST COAST
SITES. COVERED WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW AND WILL AMEND THROUGH THE
DAY AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS DECLARED LAST NIGHT
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. PWATS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE AROUND 1
INCH AROUND TAMPA AND 1.8 INCHES AT NAPLES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD
COVER ONCE AGAIN.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LAKE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND PICK UP A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TD 9. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IF THIS
SCENARIO PANS OUT.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END OF
THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON IN THIS
REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE WET WEATHER COULD
BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  73  81  73 /  60  50  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  81  75 /  60  60  60  50
MIAMI            83  73  82  73 /  70  60  70  70
NAPLES           84  71  85  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221003
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
437 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014


.DISCUSSION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS DECLARED LAST NIGHT
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. PWATS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE AROUND 1
INCH AROUND TAMPA AND 1.8 INCHES AT NAPLES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD
COVER ONCE AGAIN.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LAKE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND PICK UP A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TD 9. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IF THIS
SCENARIO PANS OUT.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END OF
THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON IN THIS
REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE WET WEATHER COULD
BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS,
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE IS AGAIN UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SO, HAVE ADDED VCSH AND VCTS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH ALL SITES REVERTING TO VCSH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  73  81  73 /  60  50  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  81  75 /  60  60  60  50
MIAMI            83  73  82  73 /  70  60  70  70
NAPLES           84  71  85  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221003
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
437 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014


.DISCUSSION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS DECLARED LAST NIGHT
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. PWATS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE AROUND 1
INCH AROUND TAMPA AND 1.8 INCHES AT NAPLES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD
COVER ONCE AGAIN.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LAKE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND PICK UP A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TD 9. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IF THIS
SCENARIO PANS OUT.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END OF
THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON IN THIS
REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE WET WEATHER COULD
BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS,
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE IS AGAIN UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SO, HAVE ADDED VCSH AND VCTS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH ALL SITES REVERTING TO VCSH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  73  81  73 /  60  50  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  81  75 /  60  60  60  50
MIAMI            83  73  82  73 /  70  60  70  70
NAPLES           84  71  85  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220837
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
437 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS DECLARED LAST TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THEN MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW.
HOWEVER...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. PWATS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE AROUND 1
INCH AROUND TAMPA AND 1.8 INCHES AT NAPLES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD
COVER ONCE AGAIN.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LAKE REGION ON THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT REMAINS THE MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY APPEARS
TO BE MAINLY ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OR ITS
REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND PICK UP A PIECE OF THE ENERGY
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TD 9. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD9 AND THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON IN THIS
REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOUTH
FLORIDA MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE WET
WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS,
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE IS AGAIN UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SO, HAVE ADDED VCSH AND VCTS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH ALL SITES REVERTING TO VCSH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  73  81  73 /  60  50  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  81  75 /  60  60  60  50
MIAMI            83  73  82  73 /  70  60  70  70
NAPLES           84  71  85  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220536
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS,
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE IS AGAIN UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SO, HAVE ADDED VCSH AND VCTS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH ALL SITES REVERTING TO VCSH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...AFTER A VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO
AREA WITH EXCESSIVE RAINS AND FLOODING, ALL NOW IS QUIET ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS THERE IS LITTLE ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS COULD RE-DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO KEPT THE FORECAST WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE
MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING REGISTERING A PWAT OF 2.07 INCHES. SO HEAVY
RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY./GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NHC SHOWS THAT WHATEVER DEVELOPS
LIKELY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE CERTAIN THAN IT DID A FEW DAYS AGO.
HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE ACTIVE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. IT VERY WELL COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NOW LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA) SETS UP LATE
THIS WEEK AND HOW FAR NORTH DEEP CARIBBEAN MOISTURE PULLS.

MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT IN
THE LOCATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL. SOME RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE MOISTURE AXIS SETTING
UP ACROSS SOUTH FL, WHILE OTHER RUNS HAVE KEPT THE HIGH MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THESE INCONSISTENCIES, THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DECREASING THIS WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL
MATERIALIZE LOCALLY, THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME IS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT NEARBY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST.

MARINE..

WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS FORECASTED TO BE GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET.
THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY THE WINDS COULD INCREASE
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY
THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD LEAD SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDING
TO AROUND 7 FEET DURING THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME THE LOW SHOULD STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  82  73 /  40  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  75  82  75 /  40  40  50  50
MIAMI            84  74  82  74 /  50  50  50  50
NAPLES           84  70  85  69 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220536
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS,
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE IS AGAIN UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SO, HAVE ADDED VCSH AND VCTS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH ALL SITES REVERTING TO VCSH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...AFTER A VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO
AREA WITH EXCESSIVE RAINS AND FLOODING, ALL NOW IS QUIET ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS THERE IS LITTLE ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS COULD RE-DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO KEPT THE FORECAST WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE
MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING REGISTERING A PWAT OF 2.07 INCHES. SO HEAVY
RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY./GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NHC SHOWS THAT WHATEVER DEVELOPS
LIKELY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE CERTAIN THAN IT DID A FEW DAYS AGO.
HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE ACTIVE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. IT VERY WELL COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NOW LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA) SETS UP LATE
THIS WEEK AND HOW FAR NORTH DEEP CARIBBEAN MOISTURE PULLS.

MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT IN
THE LOCATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL. SOME RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE MOISTURE AXIS SETTING
UP ACROSS SOUTH FL, WHILE OTHER RUNS HAVE KEPT THE HIGH MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THESE INCONSISTENCIES, THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DECREASING THIS WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL
MATERIALIZE LOCALLY, THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME IS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT NEARBY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST.

MARINE..

WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS FORECASTED TO BE GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET.
THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY THE WINDS COULD INCREASE
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY
THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD LEAD SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDING
TO AROUND 7 FEET DURING THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME THE LOW SHOULD STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  82  73 /  40  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  75  82  75 /  40  40  50  50
MIAMI            84  74  82  74 /  50  50  50  50
NAPLES           84  70  85  69 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...13/SI





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities