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000
FXUS62 KMFL 020116
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
916 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED LATER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. MUCH OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE RUNNING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE SOUTH, AND IS SITTING JUST TO THE NORTH OF JUPITER. SO,
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND ADDED SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEATHER THIS EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
AND PALM BEACH COAST. THE HRRR DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING ENHANCED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ATTM SO KEPT VCTS THROUGH 02Z FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS EXCEPT
KPBI. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE SEEN JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST
SITES AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND
PUSHING INTO THE TERMINALS SO PREVAILED A GENERAL EASTERLY WIND AT
ALL EAST COAST SITES EXCEPT KTMB WHICH MAY BE JUST TOO FAR INLAND
TO SEE AN EASTERLY WIND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND INDICATES THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS. MODEL PWAT GRADIENTS REFLECT
THIS POTENTIAL AND INDICATE VALUES RANGING FROM 1.62" ALONG THE
GULF COAST UP TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST
COAST AREAS.

/AG

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AS NOW BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SENDING THE
FIRST COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND OFF OUR COAST SUNDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SUPPORTING THIS
FROPA IDEA AS WELL...WITH THE AVERAGE OF THE MEMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE SULTRY HIGH DEWPOINTS
WE`VE FELT SINCE MAY...WELL INTO THE 70S. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S ON A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S INTERIOR AND GULF COAST BOTH SAT AND
SUN NIGHT...AND LOWER 70S EAST COAST METRO WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY...LETTING US KNOW THAT IT IS INDEED FALL.

THIS IS PRETTY EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR A COLD FRONT, BUT THE PATTERN
OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DOES NOT SEEM TO
WANT TO LET GO AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF EVEN
AFTER TEMPORARY FLOW CHANGES. GIVEN THIS, AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
ISN`T SHOCKING...AND IN FACT THE LONGER RANGE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AS WE ENTER MID OCTOBER. COULD THIS BE THE BEGINNING OF A
PARADE OF COLD FRONTS? TOO EARLY TO SAY, BUT I`M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
SO GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCKED SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

/GREGORIA

MARINE...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING. THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF
THE FALL SEASON IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH IN ITS
WAKE ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH, ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

/AG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  88  76  86 /  30  30  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  77  87 /  20  50  20  50
MIAMI            77  89  76  87 /  20  60  20  50
NAPLES           78  86  76  86 /  20  20   0  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 020116
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
916 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
RADAR SHOWING CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED LATER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGH. MUCH OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE RUNNING ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS DRIFTED A
LITTLE SOUTH, AND IS SITTING JUST TO THE NORTH OF JUPITER. SO,
HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, AND ADDED SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WEATHER THIS EVENING FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS,
AND PALM BEACH COAST. THE HRRR DOES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THIS
SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING ENHANCED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ATTM SO KEPT VCTS THROUGH 02Z FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS EXCEPT
KPBI. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE SEEN JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST
SITES AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND
PUSHING INTO THE TERMINALS SO PREVAILED A GENERAL EASTERLY WIND AT
ALL EAST COAST SITES EXCEPT KTMB WHICH MAY BE JUST TOO FAR INLAND
TO SEE AN EASTERLY WIND.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND INDICATES THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS. MODEL PWAT GRADIENTS REFLECT
THIS POTENTIAL AND INDICATE VALUES RANGING FROM 1.62" ALONG THE
GULF COAST UP TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST
COAST AREAS.

/AG

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AS NOW BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SENDING THE
FIRST COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND OFF OUR COAST SUNDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SUPPORTING THIS
FROPA IDEA AS WELL...WITH THE AVERAGE OF THE MEMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE SULTRY HIGH DEWPOINTS
WE`VE FELT SINCE MAY...WELL INTO THE 70S. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S ON A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S INTERIOR AND GULF COAST BOTH SAT AND
SUN NIGHT...AND LOWER 70S EAST COAST METRO WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY...LETTING US KNOW THAT IT IS INDEED FALL.

THIS IS PRETTY EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR A COLD FRONT, BUT THE PATTERN
OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DOES NOT SEEM TO
WANT TO LET GO AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF EVEN
AFTER TEMPORARY FLOW CHANGES. GIVEN THIS, AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
ISN`T SHOCKING...AND IN FACT THE LONGER RANGE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AS WE ENTER MID OCTOBER. COULD THIS BE THE BEGINNING OF A
PARADE OF COLD FRONTS? TOO EARLY TO SAY, BUT I`M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
SO GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCKED SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

/GREGORIA

MARINE...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING. THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF
THE FALL SEASON IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH IN ITS
WAKE ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH, ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

/AG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  88  76  86 /  30  30  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  77  87 /  20  50  20  50
MIAMI            77  89  76  87 /  20  60  20  50
NAPLES           78  86  76  86 /  20  20   0  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 012355
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING ENHANCED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ATTM SO KEPT VCTS THROUGH 02Z FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS EXCEPT
KPBI. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE SEEN JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST
SITES AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND
PUSHING INTO THE TERMINALS SO PREVAILED A GENERAL EASTERLY WIND AT
ALL EAST COAST SITES EXCEPT KTMB WHICH MAY BE JUST TOO FAR INLAND
TO SEE AN EASTERLY WIND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND INDICATES THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS. MODEL PWAT GRADIENTS REFLECT
THIS POTENTIAL AND INDICATE VALUES RANGING FROM 1.62" ALONG THE
GULF COAST UP TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST
COAST AREAS.

/AG

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AS NOW BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SENDING THE
FIRST COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND OFF OUR COAST SUNDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SUPPORTING THIS
FROPA IDEA AS WELL...WITH THE AVERAGE OF THE MEMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE SULTRY HIGH DEWPOINTS
WE`VE FELT SINCE MAY...WELL INTO THE 70S. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S ON A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S INTERIOR AND GULF COAST BOTH SAT AND
SUN NIGHT...AND LOWER 70S EAST COAST METRO WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY...LETTING US KNOW THAT IT IS INDEED FALL.

THIS IS PRETTY EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR A COLD FRONT, BUT THE PATTERN
OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DOES NOT SEEM TO
WANT TO LET GO AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF EVEN
AFTER TEMPORARY FLOW CHANGES. GIVEN THIS, AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
ISN`T SHOCKING...AND IN FACT THE LONGER RANGE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AS WE ENTER MID OCTOBER. COULD THIS BE THE BEGINNING OF A
PARADE OF COLD FRONTS? TOO EARLY TO SAY, BUT I`M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
SO GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCKED SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

/GREGORIA

MARINE...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING. THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF
THE FALL SEASON IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH IN ITS
WAKE ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH, ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

/AG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  88  76  86 /  30  30  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  77  87 /  20  50  20  50
MIAMI            77  89  76  87 /  10  60  20  50
NAPLES           78  86  76  86 /  10  20   0  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 012355
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE BECOMING ENHANCED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ATTM SO KEPT VCTS THROUGH 02Z FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS EXCEPT
KPBI. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE SEEN JUST WEST OF THE EAST COAST
SITES AND MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE TERMINALS BUT SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
GUIDANCE IS HINTING AT AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING AND
PUSHING INTO THE TERMINALS SO PREVAILED A GENERAL EASTERLY WIND AT
ALL EAST COAST SITES EXCEPT KTMB WHICH MAY BE JUST TOO FAR INLAND
TO SEE AN EASTERLY WIND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 349 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND INDICATES THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS. MODEL PWAT GRADIENTS REFLECT
THIS POTENTIAL AND INDICATE VALUES RANGING FROM 1.62" ALONG THE
GULF COAST UP TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST
COAST AREAS.

/AG

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AS NOW BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SENDING THE
FIRST COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND OFF OUR COAST SUNDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SUPPORTING THIS
FROPA IDEA AS WELL...WITH THE AVERAGE OF THE MEMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE SULTRY HIGH DEWPOINTS
WE`VE FELT SINCE MAY...WELL INTO THE 70S. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S ON A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S INTERIOR AND GULF COAST BOTH SAT AND
SUN NIGHT...AND LOWER 70S EAST COAST METRO WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY...LETTING US KNOW THAT IT IS INDEED FALL.

THIS IS PRETTY EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR A COLD FRONT, BUT THE PATTERN
OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DOES NOT SEEM TO
WANT TO LET GO AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF EVEN
AFTER TEMPORARY FLOW CHANGES. GIVEN THIS, AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
ISN`T SHOCKING...AND IN FACT THE LONGER RANGE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AS WE ENTER MID OCTOBER. COULD THIS BE THE BEGINNING OF A
PARADE OF COLD FRONTS? TOO EARLY TO SAY, BUT I`M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
SO GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCKED SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

/GREGORIA

MARINE...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING. THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF
THE FALL SEASON IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH IN ITS
WAKE ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH, ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

/AG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  88  76  86 /  30  30  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  77  87 /  20  50  20  50
MIAMI            77  89  76  87 /  10  60  20  50
NAPLES           78  86  76  86 /  10  20   0  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011949
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND INDICATES THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS. MODEL PWAT GRADIENTS REFLECT
THIS POTENTIAL AND INDICATE VALUES RANGING FROM 1.62" ALONG THE
GULF COAST UP TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST
COAST AREAS.

/AG

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AS NOW BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SENDING THE
FIRST COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND OFF OUR COAST SUNDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SUPPORTING THIS
FROPA IDEA AS WELL...WITH THE AVERAGE OF THE MEMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE SULTRY HIGH DEWPOINTS
WE`VE FELT SINCE MAY...WELL INTO THE 70S. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S ON A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S INTERIOR AND GULF COAST BOTH SAT AND
SUN NIGHT...AND LOWER 70S EAST COAST METRO WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY...LETTING US KNOW THAT IT IS INDEED FALL.

THIS IS PRETTY EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR A COLD FRONT, BUT THE PATTERN
OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DOES NOT SEEM TO
WANT TO LET GO AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF EVEN
AFTER TEMPORARY FLOW CHANGES. GIVEN THIS, AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
ISN`T SHOCKING...AND IN FACT THE LONGER RANGE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AS WE ENTER MID OCTOBER. COULD THIS BE THE BEGINNING OF A
PARADE OF COLD FRONTS? TOO EARLY TO SAY, BUT I`M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
SO GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCKED SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

/GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING. THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF
THE FALL SEASON IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH IN ITS
WAKE ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH, ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

/AG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  88  76  86 /  40  30  10  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  77  87 /  20  50  20  50
MIAMI            77  89  76  87 /  10  60  20  50
NAPLES           78  86  76  86 /  10  20   0  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AG/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011949
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
349 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND INDICATES THE MOIST WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA SOUTH A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUING THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY
AS THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WEAKENS. MODEL PWAT GRADIENTS REFLECT
THIS POTENTIAL AND INDICATE VALUES RANGING FROM 1.62" ALONG THE
GULF COAST UP TO AROUND 2" ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...PERIODS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST
COAST AREAS.

/AG

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AS NOW BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SENDING THE
FIRST COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL SATURDAY NIGHT
AND OFF OUR COAST SUNDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE SUPPORTING THIS
FROPA IDEA AS WELL...WITH THE AVERAGE OF THE MEMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO
BELOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST COOLER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE SULTRY HIGH DEWPOINTS
WE`VE FELT SINCE MAY...WELL INTO THE 70S. BEHIND THE FRONT,
DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S ON A NICE NORTHERLY BREEZE. HIGHS
ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. LOWS ARE
FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S INTERIOR AND GULF COAST BOTH SAT AND
SUN NIGHT...AND LOWER 70S EAST COAST METRO WITH COMFORTABLE
HUMIDITY...LETTING US KNOW THAT IT IS INDEED FALL.

THIS IS PRETTY EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR A COLD FRONT, BUT THE PATTERN
OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DOES NOT SEEM TO
WANT TO LET GO AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF EVEN
AFTER TEMPORARY FLOW CHANGES. GIVEN THIS, AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
ISN`T SHOCKING...AND IN FACT THE LONGER RANGE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT AS WE ENTER MID OCTOBER. COULD THIS BE THE BEGINNING OF A
PARADE OF COLD FRONTS? TOO EARLY TO SAY, BUT I`M INCLINED TO BELIEVE
SO GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCKED SYNOPTIC PATTERN.

/GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS CONTINUING. THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF
THE FALL SEASON IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH IN ITS
WAKE ON SUNDAY. SEAS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FROM THE
NORTH, ESPECIALLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

/AG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  88  76  86 /  40  30  10  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  77  87 /  20  50  20  50
MIAMI            77  89  76  87 /  10  60  20  50
NAPLES           78  86  76  86 /  10  20   0  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AG/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 011811
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
211 PM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MAINLY CONCENTRATED OVER PALM
BEACH COUNTY. THERE IS STILL A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS
TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST. VCTS IS INCLUDED FOR ALL
TERMINALS SINCE ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON HEATING CAN TRIGGER A FEW
MORE STORMS THIS EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS FOR PALM BEACH AND BROWARD COUNTIES.
THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WINDS AROUND 30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY FOR PALM BEACH AND BROWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  76  87  77 /  70  30  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  88  77 /  60  30  70  20
MIAMI            89  77  88  77 /  60  20  70  20
NAPLES           86  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...71/JE





000
FXUS62 KMFL 011458
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1058 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE MORNING FORECAST...MAINLY TO
ADJUST FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. THE MORNING
MIA UPPER AIR SOUNDING WAS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH DEEP LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW, WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB
TEMPS ONLY AT -5 C...WHICH TRANSLATES TO A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POSSIBILITY OF THE WIND PROFILE SLIGHTLY
WEAKENING COULD LEAD TO THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SETTING
UP...WHICH WOULD FOCUS THE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE
EAST COAST/METRO LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...WE WILL LEAVE THE HWO
PRODUCT AS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN UP...THIS THREAT WILL BE REDUCED. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. THUS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SEA BREEZE MAY FORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST. VCTS IS INCLUDED
FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AFTER 20Z. VCSH AND THEN VCTS AFTER
14Z IS FORECAST FOR APF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  76  87  77 /  70  30  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  88  77 /  60  30  70  20
MIAMI            89  77  88  77 /  60  20  70  20
NAPLES           86  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011458
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1058 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS WERE MADE TO THE MORNING FORECAST...MAINLY TO
ADJUST FOR THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. THE MORNING
MIA UPPER AIR SOUNDING WAS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH DEEP LIGHT
TO MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW, WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 500 MB
TEMPS ONLY AT -5 C...WHICH TRANSLATES TO A LOW THREAT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE TSTMS. ALTHOUGH NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY...THE POSSIBILITY OF THE WIND PROFILE SLIGHTLY
WEAKENING COULD LEAD TO THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SETTING
UP...WHICH WOULD FOCUS THE AFTERNOON SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE
EAST COAST/METRO LOCATIONS. AS A RESULT...WE WILL LEAVE THE HWO
PRODUCT AS IS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING
ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS TODAY. HOWEVER...IF THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS
REMAIN UP...THIS THREAT WILL BE REDUCED. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014/

AVIATION...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. THUS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SEA BREEZE MAY FORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST. VCTS IS INCLUDED
FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AFTER 20Z. VCSH AND THEN VCTS AFTER
14Z IS FORECAST FOR APF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  76  87  77 /  70  30  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  88  77 /  60  30  70  20
MIAMI            89  77  88  77 /  60  20  70  20
NAPLES           86  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 011157
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
757 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. THUS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SEA BREEZE MAY FORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST. VCTS IS INCLUDED
FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AFTER 20Z. VCSH AND THEN VCTS AFTER
14Z IS FORECAST FOR APF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  76  87  77 /  70  30  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  88  77 /  60  30  70  20
MIAMI            89  77  88  77 /  60  20  70  20
NAPLES           86  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 011157
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
757 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STAY NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS. THE FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE WEAKER TODAY THAN
YESTERDAY. THUS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A SEA BREEZE MAY FORM LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST. VCTS IS INCLUDED
FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AFTER 20Z. VCSH AND THEN VCTS AFTER
14Z IS FORECAST FOR APF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  76  87  77 /  70  30  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  88  77 /  60  30  70  20
MIAMI            89  77  88  77 /  60  20  70  20
NAPLES           86  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...71/JE





000
FXUS62 KMFL 010806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGHLIGHTS:
* TYPICAL AFTERNOON TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SATURDAY, FOCUSING
  INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO.
* FIRST TASTE OF FALL (SOUTH FL STYLE) LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY
  SUNDAY!

.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ACROSS CENTRAL FL, PLACING
SOUTH FL IN A MOIST W-SW WIND FLOW AGAIN TODAY AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SO AM EXPECTING A TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF CONVECTION, FAVORING THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST GIVEN
THE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND FIELDS. THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS
TODAY STILL LOOK JUST BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT A FULL FLEDGED
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING, BUT WINDS DO LOOK TO BACK TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO ACTIVATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STREET FLOODING WHERE THE HEAVIEST STORMS DEVELOP. THIS SIMILAR
PATTERN WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES IN A TYPICALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AS NOW BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SENDING THE
FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND OFF OUR COAST SUNDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE
SUPPORTING THIS FROPA IDEA AS WELL...WITH THE AVERAGE OF THE
MEMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST COOLER SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE
SULTRY HIGH DEWPOINTS WE`VE FELT SINCE MAY...WELL INTO THE 70S.
BEHIND THE FRONT, DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S ON A NICE
NORTHERLY BREEZE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 80S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S INTERIOR
AND GULF COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN NIGHT...AND LOWER 70S EAST COAST
METRO WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY...LETTING US KNOW THAT IT IS
INDEED FALL.

THIS IS PRETTY EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR A COLD FRONT, BUT THE
PATTERN OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DOES NOT
SEEM TO WANT TO LET GO AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES RE-ESTABLISHING
ITSELF EVEN AFTER TEMPORARY FLOW CHANGES. GIVEN THIS, AN EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT ISN`T SHOCKING...AND IN FACT THE LONGER RANGE
GFS SHOWS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AS WE ENTER MID OCTOBER. COULD THIS
BE THE BEGINNING OF A PARADE OF COLD FRONTS? TOO EARLY TO SAY,
BUT I`M INCLINED TO BELIEVE SO GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCKED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LOW SEAS. THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE
FALL SEASON IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY THEN
NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND IT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS, ESPECIALLY OFF
THE PALM BEACH COAST. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  76  87  77 /  70  30  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  88  77 /  60  30  70  20
MIAMI            89  77  88  77 /  60  20  70  20
NAPLES           86  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 010806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

HIGHLIGHTS:
* TYPICAL AFTERNOON TSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SATURDAY, FOCUSING
  INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO.
* FIRST TASTE OF FALL (SOUTH FL STYLE) LOOKING MORE LIKELY BY
  SUNDAY!

.DISCUSSION...A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ACROSS CENTRAL FL, PLACING
SOUTH FL IN A MOIST W-SW WIND FLOW AGAIN TODAY AND THIS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. SO AM EXPECTING A TYPICAL DIURNAL
PATTERN OF CONVECTION, FAVORING THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST GIVEN
THE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE WIND FIELDS. THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS
TODAY STILL LOOK JUST BREEZY ENOUGH TO PREVENT A FULL FLEDGED
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING, BUT WINDS DO LOOK TO BACK TO
A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON, PROVIDING ENOUGH
CONVERGENCE TO ACTIVATE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN IMPACTS
WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
STREET FLOODING WHERE THE HEAVIEST STORMS DEVELOP. THIS SIMILAR
PATTERN WILL REPEAT ITSELF THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS PWATS REMAIN NEAR 2 INCHES IN A TYPICALLY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE.

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR THE
LATER PART OF THE WEEKEND AS NOW BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ARE SENDING THE
FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF THIS FALL SEASON ACROSS SOUTH FL
SATURDAY NIGHT AND OFF OUR COAST SUNDAY MORNING. GFS ENSEMBLES ARE
SUPPORTING THIS FROPA IDEA AS WELL...WITH THE AVERAGE OF THE
MEMBERS A DEGREE OR TWO BELOW THE OPERATIONAL GFS MOS SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THIS...HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST COOLER SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE FROM THE
SULTRY HIGH DEWPOINTS WE`VE FELT SINCE MAY...WELL INTO THE 70S.
BEHIND THE FRONT, DEWPOINTS WILL FALL INTO THE 60S ON A NICE
NORTHERLY BREEZE. HIGHS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY IN THE
LOWER-MID 80S. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S INTERIOR
AND GULF COAST BOTH SAT AND SUN NIGHT...AND LOWER 70S EAST COAST
METRO WITH COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY...LETTING US KNOW THAT IT IS
INDEED FALL.

THIS IS PRETTY EARLY IN THE SEASON FOR A COLD FRONT, BUT THE
PATTERN OF AN AMPLIFIED TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DOES NOT
SEEM TO WANT TO LET GO AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES RE-ESTABLISHING
ITSELF EVEN AFTER TEMPORARY FLOW CHANGES. GIVEN THIS, AN EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT ISN`T SHOCKING...AND IN FACT THE LONGER RANGE
GFS SHOWS ANOTHER COLD FRONT AS WE ENTER MID OCTOBER. COULD THIS
BE THE BEGINNING OF A PARADE OF COLD FRONTS? TOO EARLY TO SAY,
BUT I`M INCLINED TO BELIEVE SO GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOCKED
SYNOPTIC PATTERN. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH CORRESPONDINGLY LOW SEAS. THE FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT OF THE
FALL SEASON IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY TO SWEEP ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY THEN
NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND IT ALONG WITH INCREASING SEAS, ESPECIALLY OFF
THE PALM BEACH COAST. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  76  87  77 /  70  30  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  88  77 /  60  30  70  20
MIAMI            89  77  88  77 /  60  20  70  20
NAPLES           86  78  87  77 /  40  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 010538 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
138 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 20Z...BEFORE A LAST EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND
PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
TO SWING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 19Z TODAY
BEFORE SWINGING BACK TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 00Z.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH 15Z TODAY OVER ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BEFORE VCSH BE ADDED FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. VCTS
WILL THEN BE ADDED FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND
00Z TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AFTER
15Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES FOR THE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

UPDATE...
THE WEATHER IS QUIETING DOWN THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
EXCEPT IN THE LAKE REGION, WHERE THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS
CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. EVEN THAT AREA IS MUCH
QUIETER THAN AN HOUR AGO. GIVEN THIS, AND LOOKING AT THE GFS,
ECMWF, AND THE HRRR, HAVE LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED WEATHER FROM
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OTHER WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN TODAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND KPBI BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL VERY SOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
PLACED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 19Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  87  76  87 /  30  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  87 /  30  60  20  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  87 /  30  70  10  60
NAPLES           77  88  76  88 /  10  40  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 010538 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
138 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY TODAY OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH
AT LEAST 20Z...BEFORE A LAST EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND
PUSHES SLOWLY INLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES
TO SWING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 19Z TODAY
BEFORE SWINGING BACK TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION AFTER 00Z.

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH 15Z TODAY OVER ALL OF THE TAF
SITES BEFORE VCSH BE ADDED FOR POSSIBLE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. VCTS
WILL THEN BE ADDED FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES BETWEEN 20Z AND
00Z TODAY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AFTER
15Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AT
ALL OF THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES FOR THE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

UPDATE...
THE WEATHER IS QUIETING DOWN THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
EXCEPT IN THE LAKE REGION, WHERE THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS
CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. EVEN THAT AREA IS MUCH
QUIETER THAN AN HOUR AGO. GIVEN THIS, AND LOOKING AT THE GFS,
ECMWF, AND THE HRRR, HAVE LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED WEATHER FROM
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OTHER WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN TODAY.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND KPBI BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL VERY SOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
PLACED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 19Z.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  75  87  76  87 /  30  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  87 /  30  60  20  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  87 /  30  70  10  60
NAPLES           77  88  76  88 /  10  40  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 010028
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
828 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER IS QUIETING DOWN THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
EXCEPT IN THE LAKE REGION, WHERE THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS
CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. EVEN THAT AREA IS MUCH
QUIETER THAN AN HOUR AGO. GIVEN THIS, AND LOOKING AT THE GFS,
ECMWF, AND THE HRRR, HAVE LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED WEATHER FROM
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OTHER WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND KPBI BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL VERY SOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
PLACED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 19Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  30  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  10  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  10  60  30  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 010028
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
828 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE WEATHER IS QUIETING DOWN THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA,
EXCEPT IN THE LAKE REGION, WHERE THE LAST OF THE CONVECTION IS
CROSSING THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. EVEN THAT AREA IS MUCH
QUIETER THAN AN HOUR AGO. GIVEN THIS, AND LOOKING AT THE GFS,
ECMWF, AND THE HRRR, HAVE LOWERED POPS AND REMOVED WEATHER FROM
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST OTHER WEATHER
ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MINOR TWEAKS.

LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY
IN THE INTERIOR AND THE EAST COAST AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES, ALTHOUGH WEAKER THAN TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND KPBI BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL VERY SOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
PLACED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 19Z.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  30  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  10  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  10  60  30  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....57/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 010002
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND KPBI BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL VERY SOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
PLACED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  20  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 010002
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
802 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE AROUND KPBI BUT
SHOULD CLEAR THE TERMINAL VERY SOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. SIMILAR SETUP
EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOUTHWEST TO SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MAINLY THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST.
PLACED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  20  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301940
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  20  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  20  60  20  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AG/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301940
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE UPPER TROUGH AND
SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY IMPACTING THE REGION LIFTING NORTHEAST OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL STALL
ACROSS THE STATE AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. WESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY
WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WEAKENING FLOW COMBINED
WITH RISING UPPER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD
TRANSLATE TO MORE OF A TYPICAL PATTERN WITH MAINLY AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ACTIVITY EXPECTED EACH DAY BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. WESTERLY
LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 10 KFT COMBINED WITH THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FOCUS THE BULK OF THIS AFTERNOON ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH IS WELL
REFLECTED IN THE LATEST NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS TIME...LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD RESULT IN FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING PERIODS ACROSS THE EAST COAST AREAS. OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH THE MORNING PERIODS...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE AND MAY IMPACT
THE GULF COASTAL AREAS BRIEFLY.

/85

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)...

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH WITH THE
POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY SEASON COLD FRONT
MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY! ECMWF IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS, SHOWING DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE
A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS
THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT
OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT
CLEAR OUR AREA, THE EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...

LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH A DISSIPATING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH LATE THIS WEEK. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. THIS
COLD FRONT COULD MOVE INTO OR ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON SUNDAY
WHILE LOSING ITS PUNCH.

/GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  88  75  87 /  20  60  30  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  89 /  20  60  30  60
MIAMI            77  89  77  89 /  20  60  20  70
NAPLES           77  87  77  88 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AG/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301245
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE RAINFALL
CHANCES WERE INCREASED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED ON THE
LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS...WHICH INDICATES
THE BULK OF THE COVERAGE WILL FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH IS IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 14Z AND 23Z.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. W-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. AMDAR
DATA SHOWS THIS HAPPENING WITH PALM BEACH WINDS NEAR 15 KT A FEW
THOUSAND FEET UP. THIS INCREASED FLOW LIKELY WILL PREVENT AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...AND WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LIKELY
POPS PROVIDED BY THE MODEL BLENDS, SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE GFS MOS POPS. TSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE PALM BEACHES...IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE TSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TSTORMS. LIGHTNING LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. TSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE MOVE WITH THE FASTER STEERING FLOW, LIMITING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WILL LIFT AWAY AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE CARIB INTO SOUTH FL
WED-FRI. AS WIND FLOW LIGHTENS, WE RETURN TO A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
REGIME ON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. TSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AND
FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO DUE TO A CONTINUED
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW, ALBEIT LIGHTER. SO WITH LIGHTER STEERING
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN TYPICAL
SOUTH FL FASHION.

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WITH THE POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY!
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS,
SHOWING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE
SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY
ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT CLEAR OUR AREA, THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL LIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO ONLY AROUND 5 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FL ON SATURDAY...WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING A TAD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IN RESPONSE. THIS FRONT
COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY...OR BECOME HUNG UP OVER THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT, BUT SINCE
IT WILL BE LOOSING ITS PUNCH, NO HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER WAY, THOUGH HIGHER SURF WOULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
PALM BEACHES SUN-MON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  88  75 /  80  20  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  89  77 /  70  20  60  30
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  60  10  60  20
NAPLES           87  77  87  77 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301245
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LATEST GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE HAS BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE RAINFALL
CHANCES WERE INCREASED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS BASED ON THE
LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS...WHICH INDICATES
THE BULK OF THE COVERAGE WILL FOCUS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH IS IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 14Z AND 23Z.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. W-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. AMDAR
DATA SHOWS THIS HAPPENING WITH PALM BEACH WINDS NEAR 15 KT A FEW
THOUSAND FEET UP. THIS INCREASED FLOW LIKELY WILL PREVENT AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...AND WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LIKELY
POPS PROVIDED BY THE MODEL BLENDS, SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE GFS MOS POPS. TSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE PALM BEACHES...IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE TSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TSTORMS. LIGHTNING LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. TSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE MOVE WITH THE FASTER STEERING FLOW, LIMITING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WILL LIFT AWAY AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE CARIB INTO SOUTH FL
WED-FRI. AS WIND FLOW LIGHTENS, WE RETURN TO A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
REGIME ON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. TSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AND
FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO DUE TO A CONTINUED
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW, ALBEIT LIGHTER. SO WITH LIGHTER STEERING
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN TYPICAL
SOUTH FL FASHION.

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WITH THE POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY!
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS,
SHOWING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE
SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY
ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT CLEAR OUR AREA, THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL LIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO ONLY AROUND 5 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FL ON SATURDAY...WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING A TAD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IN RESPONSE. THIS FRONT
COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY...OR BECOME HUNG UP OVER THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT, BUT SINCE
IT WILL BE LOOSING ITS PUNCH, NO HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER WAY, THOUGH HIGHER SURF WOULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
PALM BEACHES SUN-MON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  88  75 /  80  20  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  89  77 /  70  20  60  30
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  60  10  60  20
NAPLES           87  77  87  77 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301148
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH IS IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 14Z AND 23Z.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014/

DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. W-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. AMDAR
DATA SHOWS THIS HAPPENING WITH PALM BEACH WINDS NEAR 15 KT A FEW
THOUSAND FEET UP. THIS INCREASED FLOW LIKELY WILL PREVENT AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...AND WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LIKELY
POPS PROVIDED BY THE MODEL BLENDS, SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE GFS MOS POPS. TSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE PALM BEACHES...IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE TSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TSTORMS. LIGHTNING LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. TSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE MOVE WITH THE FASTER STEERING FLOW, LIMITING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WILL LIFT AWAY AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE CARIB INTO SOUTH FL
WED-FRI. AS WIND FLOW LIGHTENS, WE RETURN TO A DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
REGIME ON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. TSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AND
FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO DUE TO A CONTINUED
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW, ALBEIT LIGHTER. SO WITH LIGHTER STEERING
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN TYPICAL
SOUTH FL FASHION.

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WITH THE POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY!
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS,
SHOWING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE
SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY
ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT CLEAR OUR AREA, THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL LIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO ONLY AROUND 5 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FL ON SATURDAY...WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING A TAD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IN RESPONSE. THIS FRONT
COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY...OR BECOME HUNG UP OVER THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT, BUT SINCE
IT WILL BE LOOSING ITS PUNCH, NO HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER WAY, THOUGH HIGHER SURF WOULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
PALM BEACHES SUN-MON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  88  75 /  50  20  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  89  77 /  50  20  60  30
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  40  10  60  20
NAPLES           87  77  87  77 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300738
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. W-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. AMDAR
DATA SHOWS THIS HAPPENING WITH PALM BEACH WINDS NEAR 15 KT A FEW
THOUSAND FEET UP. THIS INCREASED FLOW LIKELY WILL PREVENT AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...AND WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LIKELY
POPS PROVIDED BY THE MODEL BLENDS, SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE GFS MOS POPS. TSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE PALM BEACHES...IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE TSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TSTORMS. LIGHTNING LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. TSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE MOVE WITH THE FASTER STEERING FLOW, LIMITING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WILL LIFT AWAY AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE CARIB INTO SOUTH FL
WED-FRI. AS WIND FLOW LIGHTENS, WE RETURN TO A DIURNALCONVECTIVE
REGIME ON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. TSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AND
FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO DUE TO A CONTINUED
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW, ALBEIT LIGHTER. SO WITH LIGHTER STEERING
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN TYPICAL
SOUTH FL FASHION.

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WITH THE POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY!
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS,
SHOWING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE
SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY
ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT CLEAR OUR AREA, THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL LIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO ONLY AROUND 5 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FL ON SATURDAY...WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING A TAD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IN RESPONSE. THIS FRONT
COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY...OR BECOME HUNG UP OVER THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT, BUT SINCE
IT WILL BE LOOSING ITS PUNCH, NO HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER WAY, THOUGH HIGHER SURF WOULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
PALM BEACHES SUN-MON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  88  75 /  50  20  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  89  77 /  50  20  60  30
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  40  10  60  20
NAPLES           87  77  87  77 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300738
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH FLORIDA COAST WILL MOVE
EASTWARD WITH A TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA. W-SW WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY. AMDAR
DATA SHOWS THIS HAPPENING WITH PALM BEACH WINDS NEAR 15 KT A FEW
THOUSAND FEET UP. THIS INCREASED FLOW LIKELY WILL PREVENT AN EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING...AND WITH THE SYNOPTIC SCALE
CONVERGENCE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA, HAVE UNCERTAINTY IN THE LIKELY
POPS PROVIDED BY THE MODEL BLENDS, SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
SLIGHTLY BUT STILL AT OR ABOVE GFS MOS POPS. TSTORM COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON TO THE PALM BEACHES...IN THE HIGHER MOISTURE AND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE TSTORM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA TSTORMS. LIGHTNING LOOKS TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD. TSTORMS
WILL BE ON THE MOVE WITH THE FASTER STEERING FLOW, LIMITING
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
WILL LIFT AWAY AS RIDGING BUILDS FROM THE CARIB INTO SOUTH FL
WED-FRI. AS WIND FLOW LIGHTENS, WE RETURN TO A DIURNALCONVECTIVE
REGIME ON SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. TSTORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP AND
FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO DUE TO A CONTINUED
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW, ALBEIT LIGHTER. SO WITH LIGHTER STEERING
WINDS, LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR IN TYPICAL
SOUTH FL FASHION.

A SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE IS SHOWN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DIGGING
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY AND AMPLIFYING WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTHEASTWARD WITH THIS HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
WITH THE POSSIBILITY (LOW CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW) OF AN EARLY
SEASON COLD FRONT MOVING ALL THE WAY ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY!
ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE GFS RUNS,
SHOWING DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SUN-MON (AND TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER) WHICH WOULD BE A VERY NOTICEABLE AIRMASS CHANGE SINCE
SPRING HERE. GFS THOUGH HANGS THIS FRONT NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION WITH DEWPOINTS HANGING AT OR ABOVE 70F ACROSS SOUTH FL.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, BUT POSSIBLY
ENDING FOR A COUPLE DAYS SHOULD THE FRONT CLEAR OUR AREA, THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SHOWS A TREND OF LOWERING POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KT TODAY WILL LIGHTEN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS TO ONLY AROUND 5 KT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH FL ON SATURDAY...WITH SW WINDS
INCREASING A TAD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS IN RESPONSE. THIS FRONT
COULD MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FL ON SUNDAY...OR BECOME HUNG UP OVER THE
AREA. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHICH SCENARIO WILL PLAY OUT, BUT SINCE
IT WILL BE LOOSING ITS PUNCH, NO HAZARDOUS WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED EITHER WAY, THOUGH HIGHER SURF WOULD BRIEFLY IMPACT THE
PALM BEACHES SUN-MON. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  88  74  88  75 /  50  20  60  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  89  77 /  50  20  60  30
MIAMI            89  77  89  77 /  40  10  60  20
NAPLES           87  77  87  77 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300540 CCC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. SO
WILL PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 13Z
AND 23Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES FOR POSSIBLE REDUCED VIS AND CEILING.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EAST COAST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AT AROUND
10 KNOTS. SIMILAR MESOSCALE SETUP EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO PLACED
VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z-19Z.
&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  75  89 /  20  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  78  90 /  20  60  20  50
MIAMI            77  91  77  92 /  10  60  20  50
NAPLES           76  89  75  90 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300540 CCC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. SO
WILL PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN 13Z
AND 23Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES FOR POSSIBLE REDUCED VIS AND CEILING.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EAST COAST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AT AROUND
10 KNOTS. SIMILAR MESOSCALE SETUP EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO PLACED
VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z-19Z.
&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  75  89 /  20  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  78  90 /  20  60  20  50
MIAMI            77  91  77  92 /  10  60  20  50
NAPLES           76  89  75  90 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300536 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WING SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. SO
WILL PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN
13Z AND 23Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES FOR POSSIBLE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EAST COAST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AT AROUND
10 KNOTS. SIMILAR MESOSCALE SETUP EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO PLACED
VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z-19Z.
&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  75  89 /  20  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  78  90 /  20  60  20  50
MIAMI            77  91  77  92 /  10  60  20  50
NAPLES           76  89  75  90 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300536 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.AVIATION...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
TODAY WITH WING SPEEDS LESS THAN 5 KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING
INCREASING TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE WEATHER WILL
REMAIN DRY THIS MORNING OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES...BUT THEN
COULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY AFTER 17Z. SO
WILL PUT IN VCTS BETWEEN 17Z AND 23Z TODAY FOR THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL BE IN THE FORECAST BETWEEN
13Z AND 23Z.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES...DUE TO THE UNKNOWN TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ONCE THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES FOR POSSIBLE REDUCE VIS AND CEILING.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 813 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

AVIATION...
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EAST COAST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AT AROUND
10 KNOTS. SIMILAR MESOSCALE SETUP EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO PLACED
VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z-19Z.
&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  89  75  89 /  20  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  78  90 /  20  60  20  50
MIAMI            77  91  77  92 /  10  60  20  50
NAPLES           76  89  75  90 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300013
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
813 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EAST COAST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AT AROUND
10 KNOTS. SIMILAR MESOSCALE SETUP EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO PLACED
VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z-19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  90  74  89 / 100  60  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  77  91 / 100  60  20  60
MIAMI            76  91  77  91 / 100  50  10  60
NAPLES           76  90  76  89 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300013
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
813 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
SHRAS/TSRAS SHOULD BE EXITING THE EAST COAST TAF SITES OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS GIVING WAY TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS SHOULD PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AT AROUND
10 KNOTS. SIMILAR MESOSCALE SETUP EXPECTED TOMORROW...SO PLACED
VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST SITES AFTER 18Z-19Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  90  74  89 / 100  60  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  77  91 / 100  60  20  60
MIAMI            76  91  77  91 / 100  50  10  60
NAPLES           76  90  76  89 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291952
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SITE OPF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  90  74  89 /  60  60  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  77  91 /  50  60  20  60
MIAMI            76  91  77  91 /  40  50  10  60
NAPLES           76  90  76  89 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291952
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR WERE
MOVING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE THAT STORMS WOULD MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND LINGER THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE EAST OF GEORGIA TONIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE PUSHES OFF
THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRAPE WESTWARD FROM
THIS LOW ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. DEEP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN...HIGHEST EAST. SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...AND WITH THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW...RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGHEST NORTH OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. WITH THE DEEPER
WESTERLY FLOW...A SEA BREEZE MAY NOT DEVELOP...WITH STORMS
MOVING RIGHT INTO THE ATLANTIC. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN MAY BE
A LITTLE LOWER THAN TODAY.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT IN THEIR EVOLUTION OF THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW ONLY
SLOWLY EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE GFS HAS THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE RACING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THE GFS SOLUTION HAS THE
DEEPEST MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF THE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REMAINING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND THE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS OUR REGION.
EITHER WAY...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
ONCE AGAIN.

STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SITE OPF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL VEER TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  90  74  89 /  60  60  20  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  91  77  91 /  50  60  20  60
MIAMI            76  91  77  91 /  40  50  10  60
NAPLES           76  90  76  89 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291848
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SITE OPF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 800MB...AND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING TO
2.2-2.4 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT OR PUSH INTO THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL THEN
PUSH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...AND THE LATEST
RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST AND
QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THE EAST COAST
METROS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE ZFP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  74  90  74 /  80  60  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  70  50  60  20
MIAMI            90  76  91  77 /  70  40  50  10
NAPLES           88  76  90  76 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291848
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
248 PM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
THE GULF COAST AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO PUSH
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN ACROSS THE
EAST COAST AREAS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING PERIOD.
THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FOR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST NORTH OF SITE OPF.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 800MB...AND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING TO
2.2-2.4 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT OR PUSH INTO THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL THEN
PUSH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...AND THE LATEST
RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST AND
QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THE EAST COAST
METROS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE ZFP.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  74  90  74 /  80  60  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  70  50  60  20
MIAMI            90  76  91  77 /  70  40  50  10
NAPLES           88  76  90  76 /  40  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291419
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1019 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS WERE MOVING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND
TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE 12Z SOUNDING THIS MORNING SHOWED LIGHT
EASTERLY FLOW UP TO 800MB...AND THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST STATES. AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS WILL PUSH INTO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH PWATS INCREASING FROM 1.8 INCHES THIS MORNING TO
2.2-2.4 INCHES LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL
PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG IT OR PUSH INTO THE BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL THEN
PUSH SLOWLY TOWARDS THE EAST COAST IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE LATEST HRRR AND LOCAL WRF RUNS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY...AND THE LATEST
RUNS ARE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE STORMS MOVING EAST AND
QUICKLY INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
TO BE ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. BUMPED UP POPS TO 70-80 PERCENT FOR THE EAST COAST
METROS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN WORDING TO THE ZFP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  90  75 /  70  50  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  70  50  60  20
MIAMI            90  77  91  77 /  70  40  50  20
NAPLES           88  77  88  77 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
953 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...LATER ON THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO DEVELOP AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AND
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  90  75 /  70  50  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  70  50  60  20
MIAMI            90  77  91  77 /  70  40  50  20
NAPLES           88  77  88  77 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291353
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
953 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING
WITH LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUING. HOWEVER...LATER ON THIS
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE PROJECTED TO DEVELOP AND
BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA AND
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
SUB VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  90  75 /  70  50  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  70  50  60  20
MIAMI            90  77  91  77 /  70  40  50  20
NAPLES           88  77  88  77 /  40  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  90  75 /  60  40  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  50  30  60  20
MIAMI            90  77  91  77 /  60  30  50  20
NAPLES           88  77  88  77 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION.....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 290743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
343 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.DISCUSSION...
.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER HEAD FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK-WEEK. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MARKED PATTERN SHIFT INITIATES TODAY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE SE CONUS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THIS FEATURES AXIS
CROSSING MS/AL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND WILL CROSS GA AND N FL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. ITS ATTENDANT SURFACE LOPRES IS JUST
STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERNMOST GULF...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STRENGTH AND MOVE ENE NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER TODAY...WITH COLD
FRONT TRAILING TO THE WSW BEHIND IT. ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL PUSH
COPIOUS TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTH AND EASTERN FROM THE GULF ACROSS
MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA. EXPECT PLENTY OF CONVECTION TO
FIRE AHEAD OF THE LOPRES AND FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON NORTH OF CWA.
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...STEERING FLOW ALOFT HAS ALREADY TURNED
SW...AND WILL CONTINUE TRANSITIONING TO THAT DIRECTION AT LOWER
LEVELS TODAY. ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS OF TSTM
INITIATION IN SOFLA...PROVIDING THE CONVERGENCE TO COMBINE WITH
THE ASCENT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH.
TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE INTERIOR REGION /WEST OF SUBURBS/.
HOWEVER...THE SW WINDS ALOFT WILL CAUSE STORMS TO PROPAGATE BACK
TOWARD THE EAST COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...LEAVING HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE INLAND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN METRO AREAS.
EQUILIBRIUM/STORM TOP OUTFLOW LEVEL WINDS ARE NORTHERLY...ALSO
CANT RULE OUT SEA- BREEZE CONVECTION OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SPREADING SOUTH INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. STORMS WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCERS AND SLOW-MOVING. ANYWHERE WHERE A STORM
STALLS ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE COUNTY...ESPECIALLY OVER PALM BEACH
COUNTY...COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH FLORIDA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP EACH DAY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE FRONT /PERHAPS REACHING AS FAR SOUTH AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE/ AND
ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE...WHICH WILL MAKE LITTLE INLAND
PROGRESS. THUS...EAST COAST AND NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
HAVE HIGHEST POPS.

IN THE TROPICAL AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN WARM...APPROACHING 90F DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND REMAINING
IN 70S OVERNIGHT. KFLL TIED DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMP
SATURDAY WITH 82F...AND HAS BROKEN SUNDAYS RECORD WITH 81F. IF AIR
DOESNT BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY RAIN COOLED THERE TODAY...ANOTHER
RECORD MAY BE BROKEN.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRENGTHENING HIPRES CENTERED OVER CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL BUILD
ALL THE WAY SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL LIKELY FORCE THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
DURING THE PERIOD...KEEPING A FAIRLY WET WEATHER PATTERN GOING.
CANT RULE OUT SOME DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE HIPRES REACHING
INTO NORTHEASTERN AREAS...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CONUS THIS WEEKEND LOOKS POISED TO SEND
A STRONGER FRONT INTO FLORIDA SATURDAY...AND IT MAY HAVE ENOUGH
PUSH TO CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. UNTIL THAT HAPPENS /IF IT
HAPPENS/...GENERALLY WARM...WET...AND HUMID WEATHER WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY OVER THE WATERS...VEERING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER THE WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THROUGHOUT THE
WEEKEND...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AWAY
FROM CONVECTION...SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  90  75 /  60  40  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  77  91  77 /  50  30  60  20
MIAMI            90  77  91  77 /  60  30  50  20
NAPLES           88  77  88  77 /  40  20  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION.....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290532
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
132 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREAS
MOVING GRADUALLY NW AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 03Z/11 PM EDT.
EASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. TAFS ARE FREE OF PRECIP
OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST.
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS COULD
AFFECT NAPLES TOWARD SUNRISE, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TO
PLACE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FOR MONDAY, SE WINDS IN THE
MORNING GRADUALLY TURN TO S-SW BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANGE IN THE PRECIP
PATTERN WITH FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS MORE IN THE
INTERIOR TO POSSIBLY EASTERN AREAS. FOR NOW VCTS SHOULD COVER MOST
OF THE EAST COAST SITES MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NAPLES FREE OF
PRECIP. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE FACT THAT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGIONS
HAS LESSENED. THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST THIS
EVENING AND IS INDICATED IN THE UPDATED FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
NAPLES AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WOULD MAKE THE
FOURTH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN NAPLES. THIS
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING FOR THE NAPLES
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...DECREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME BEGINNING MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO SURGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MAINLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.
SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LAST SEVERAL MODELS RUNS ARE SUGGESTING SURFACE HIPRES BUILDING
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/SE CONUS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER...FORCING THE
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...DOESNT LOOK LIKE ANY COOLER/DRIER AIR
WILL REACH THE REGION...SO OVERALL FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE.
EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY...WHOSE LOCATION IS
STILL TO-BE-DETERMINED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...TYPICAL WET SEASON
WEATHER /WARM AND HUMID/ WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE PROGRESSED TO THE WEST TODAY,COVERING MAINLY THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST AS EXPECTED. THERE ARE STILL A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS THAT MAY AFFECT THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST, SO HAVE
KEPT THE VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE SITES. FOR KAPF, KEPT
PREDOMINATE SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY. OTHERWISE, VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE UNDER AND HEAVY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY MONDAY...THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST FOR TUESDAY. BEYOND
THAT...WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL STALL NEAR THE WATERS FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET
OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290532
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
132 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH L/V SURFACE
WIND AT ALL TERMINALS. A FEW SMALL SHRA ARE NOTED OVER THE
ATLANTIC BUT TOO FEW TO EVEN MENTION VCSH IN ANY OF THE TAFS.
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR WITH STORM MOTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THE QUESTION IS
HOW FAST WILL THIS STEERING FLOW BECOME ESTABLISHED. AMPLE
MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE BUT WINDS ALOFT TO STEER THE STORMS WILL
NOT BE NECESSARILY STRONG SO MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS. FOR THIS REASON, HAVE LEFT VCTS IN THE FORECAST BUT MAY
NEED TO ADD TEMPO GROUPS WITH LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 743 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

AVIATION...
A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREAS
MOVING GRADUALLY NW AND EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 03Z/11 PM EDT.
EASTERLY FLOW BEGINS TO WEAKEN LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. TAFS ARE FREE OF PRECIP
OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW SHOWERS COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST.
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITY ALONG WITH LOW CLOUDS COULD
AFFECT NAPLES TOWARD SUNRISE, BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS TO
PLACE IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME. FOR MONDAY, SE WINDS IN THE
MORNING GRADUALLY TURN TO S-SW BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD TO A CHANGE IN THE PRECIP
PATTERN WITH FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS MORE IN THE
INTERIOR TO POSSIBLY EASTERN AREAS. FOR NOW VCTS SHOULD COVER MOST
OF THE EAST COAST SITES MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH NAPLES FREE OF
PRECIP. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 600 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE FACT THAT THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR REGIONS
HAS LESSENED. THERE ARE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
A FEW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST THIS
EVENING AND IS INDICATED IN THE UPDATED FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014/

DISCUSSION...
EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COASTAL AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE
NAPLES AREA AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THIS WOULD MAKE THE
FOURTH CONSECUTIVE DAY WITH SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IN NAPLES. THIS
WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED URBAN FLOODING FOR THE NAPLES
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHERWISE...DECREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL BE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE.

SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW REGIME BEGINNING MONDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS TO SURGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC BY TUESDAY. AS IT DOES...IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED
BY A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
MAINLY EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.
SO KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST INTERIOR MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

LAST SEVERAL MODELS RUNS ARE SUGGESTING SURFACE HIPRES BUILDING
INTO THE DEEP SOUTH/SE CONUS MAY BE A BIT STRONGER...FORCING THE
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MID/LATE WEEK
TIME FRAME. AT THIS POINT...DOESNT LOOK LIKE ANY COOLER/DRIER AIR
WILL REACH THE REGION...SO OVERALL FORECAST HAS CHANGED LITTLE.
EXPECTED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...WITH GREATEST
COVERAGE FOCUSED NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY...WHOSE LOCATION IS
STILL TO-BE-DETERMINED. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...TYPICAL WET SEASON
WEATHER /WARM AND HUMID/ WILL PREVAIL.

AVIATION...
SHOWERS HAVE PROGRESSED TO THE WEST TODAY,COVERING MAINLY THE
INTERIOR AND GULF COAST AS EXPECTED. THERE ARE STILL A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS THAT MAY AFFECT THE SOUTH FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST, SO HAVE
KEPT THE VCSH IN THE TAFS FOR THOSE SITES. FOR KAPF, KEPT
PREDOMINATE SHOWERS WITH SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE
VICINITY. OTHERWISE, VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD, WITH BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE UNDER AND HEAVY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE...
EAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY MONDAY...THEN SOUTHWEST TO WEST FOR TUESDAY. BEYOND
THAT...WIND DIRECTION AND SPEEDS WILL DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL STALL NEAR THE WATERS FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE WEEK. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 4 FEET
OR LESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





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