Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KMFL 240002
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
802 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...Remnant frontal boundary meandering across Lake
Okeechobee this evening with numerous boundaries still running
across the region. Boundary collisions have lead to a few strong
to severe storms this afternoon and evening, but with the loss of
daytime heating and the shortwave forcing moving south and east,
storm intensity will continue to wane. The same boundary
interactions will allow activity to linger through late evening.
Models show a few showers overnight along the Palm Beach county
along the front as low level flow becomes more east- northeast.
Will keep the mention of showers in this area overnight for this
possibility, with the potential for a few more light showers along
the frontal boundary. /ALM

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS remains in TAFs for east coast sites through
24/02Z as ongoing boundary interactions continue to play out, with
best chances VCNTY KFXE and KFLL. Will have to monitor for
potential for tempos at these sites. Winds already light and
variable at most sites with numerous boundaries, and will remain
so overnight with a tendency towards ENE as frontal boundary
washes out nearby. Winds become ENE at all sites 6-8kts after
24/13Z, increasing to 10-15kts with gusts up to 20kts along east
coast sites after 24/16Z. KAPF looks to see late Gulf breeze,
becoming WNW after 18Z. Isold shra vcnty KPBI overnight, possibly
reaching KFXE and KFLL. The stronger easterly flow will push best
rain chances over interior and towards KAPF Tues afternoon, but
may see shra or tsra vcnty east coast airports as ENE flow
increases. /ALM

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 431 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...

This Afternoon-Tonight: Surface boundary has settled across South
Florida this afternoon, currently from around Naples to Southern
Palm Beach county. The earlier more stratiform convection that was
moving across the region has pushed well east into the Atlantic,
bringing enough clearing in time for peak afternoon sunshine. A
few storms have already developed along the intersection of the
diffuse west coast seabreeze and cold front, with additional
showers popping up along some of the other boundaries across the
region. The east coast seabreeze has also managed to develop and
begin pushing inland.

Best coverage of storms, and threat for stronger storms this
afternoon and early evening will be where the seabreezes collide,
especially in the vicinity of the frontal boundary. This looks to
be towards the western side of the east coast metro across Palm
Beach and Broward counties. Frequent lightning and hail will be
the threats with the strongest storms.

Convection diminishes late this evening with a few Atlantic
showers possible as prevailing flow starts to veer more east-
northeast.

Tuesday: Another unsettled day looks to be store across the region
as the remnant surface boundary remains across South Florida along
with its pooled low level moisture. Low level instability will be
aided by another upper level wave moving across the region, likely
during peak heating in the afternoon.

Surface high pressure building to our north in the wake of the
trough will shift low level flow. So while we still look to get a
Gulf coast seabreeze, the east coast seabreeze looks more
dominant, shifting the best storm chances over the southern
interior and Gulf coast.

With cool temps aloft and weak steering flow, frequent lightning,
small hail, and locally heavy rainfall will be the main concerns
with storms into the afternoon and evening.

Wednesday-Upcoming Weekend: Run to run and model to model
differences continue with the forecast details for the end of the
week into the upcoming weekend, but the overall pattern remains the
same. The main upper level trough will continue to move away from
the east coast, while its southern extent will develop into a cutoff
low near the Bahamas in the Thursday-Friday time frame.

Meanwhile, surface high pressure will build across the Western
Atlantic and bring back breezy easterly flow. Most of South Florida
will be on the subsident side of the aforementioned cut-off low,
which normally translates into a drier pattern establishing across
the area. But the stronger easterly flow should advect enough low
level moisture to support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.
Rain coverage looks to increase into the weekend as the upper level
trough/low meanders closer to Florida along with its associated
surface trough.

MARINE...Generally light and variable flow expected through the
overnight hours with frontal boundary overhead, becoming easterly
into Tuesday as high pressure builds over the Western Atlantic.
Gusty conditions will set up from Wednesday onwards with speeds
increasing to around 15kts over the Atlantic, occasionally 15-
20kts at times over all the waters. The strengthening easterly
flow will build seas over the Atlantic to 3-5ft at times beyond
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  71  83  74  84 /  30  30  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  73  84  75  85 /  30  40  30  20
Miami            73  86  75  84 /  20  50  30  20
Naples           71  88  71  89 /  10  40  30  30

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231810
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
210 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail into Tuesday. chance of showers this
afternoon, with some isolated thunderstorms so kept VCTS in
eastern terminals. Similar activity is expected Tuesday afternoon.
Sea breeze should swing east coast winds to east shortly, then
east wind will prevail Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 804 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016/

UPDATE...
A quick update to mainly account for current conditions and hi-res
model trends. Shower are possible this morning, mainly across the
Lake region, and then chances increasing from around mid-day
through the evening hours for showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, no significant changes made to the forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis depicts a cold front boundary now pushing
southeastward across Central Florida and slowly approaching the
area.

The overnight hours have been a little more active than expected
with radar showing a few large showers moving west to east across
South Florida. Therefore, some low-end POPS were included in
the forecast through 12Z this morning.

Model solutions show reasonable consensus in keeping an upper level
low and an associated mid/upper trough lingering across the Mid
Atlantic and Northeast states today and through Tuesday. A series of
short wave impulses will move around the base of the main trough,
reaching Florida at times. This synoptic setup will continue to
provide enough instability and enough low level moisture to combine
with daytime heating for additional showers and a few
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening. Models
also show potentially drier air entraining the mid levels later
today, but even so, low-topped storms should be able to form.

Unlike yesterday, at least a pseudo sea breeze or onshore flow is
shown in most guidance solutions developing this afternoon along the
Atlantic coastline, possibly initiating or enhancing convection over
the eastern half of the CWA.  Expect frequent lightning and gusty
winds with the strongest cells.

For Wednesday through the upcoming weekend, models show the main
upper level trough migrating east and further away from the state
by mid week, with an associated cutoff low developing near the
Bahamas in the Thursday-Friday time frame. Meanwhile, sfc high
pressure seems to spread across the Western Atlantic and bring
back increasingly easterly flow for the second half of the work
week. Most of South Florida will be on the subsidence side of the
aforementioned cut-off low, which normally translates into a drier
pattern establishing across the area. But the stronger easterly
flow should advect enough low level moisture to support afternoon
showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly during the weekend.

MARINE...
The prevailing west winds will decrease today and allow for sea
breezes to develop in the afternoon. This will veer winds to the
east southeast around 10kts along coastal locations. Easterly flow
will then establish from Tuesday onwards, with speeds increasing
to around 15kts over the Atlantic on Wednesday. The strengthening
easterly flow will build seas over the Atlantic to 3-5ft at times
beyond Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  73  86  75  85 /  30  30  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  74  86  75  85 /  40  40  20  10
Miami            74  87  75  86 /  30  50  30  20
Naples           71  88  70  91 /  10  40  10  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88/ALM
LONG TERM....17/AR
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231204
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
804 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.UPDATE...
A quick update to mainly account for current conditions and hi-res
model trends. Shower are possible this morning, mainly across the
Lake region, and then chances increasing from around mid-day
through the evening hours for showers and thunderstorms.
Otherwise, no significant changes made to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mainly VFR conditions today with mainly mid and upper level decks
of clouds through the day. There will be increasing chances of
showers and storms this afternoon , so have kept the VCTS in the
TAFs for now. The sea breezes should develop this afternoon,
having the typical impacts at the TAF locations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 323 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Surface analysis depicts a cold front boundary now pushing
southeastward across Central Florida and slowly approaching the
area.

The overnight hours have been a little more active than expected
with radar showing a few large showers moving west to east across
South Florida. Therefore, some low-end POPS were included in
the forecast through 12Z this morning.

Model solutions show reasonable consensus in keeping an upper level
low and an associated mid/upper trough lingering across the Mid
Atlantic and Northeast states today and through Tuesday. A series of
short wave impulses will move around the base of the main trough,
reaching Florida at times. This synoptic setup will continue to
provide enough instability and enough low level moisture to combine
with daytime heating for additional showers and a few
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and early evening. Models
also show potentially drier air entraining the mid levels later
today, but even so, low-topped storms should be able to form.

Unlike yesterday, at least a pseudo sea breeze or onshore flow is
shown in most guidance solutions developing this afternoon along the
Atlantic coastline, possibly initiating or enhancing convection over
the eastern half of the CWA.  Expect frequent lightning and gusty
winds with the strongest cells.

For Wednesday through the upcoming weekend, models show the main
upper level trough migrating east and further away from the state
by mid week, with an associated cutoff low developing near the
Bahamas in the Thursday-Friday time frame. Meanwhile, sfc high
pressure seems to spread across the Western Atlantic and bring
back increasingly easterly flow for the second half of the work
week. Most of South Florida will be on the subsidence side of the
aforementioned cut-off low, which normally translates into a drier
pattern establishing across the area. But the stronger easterly
flow should advect enough low level moisture to support afternoon
showers and a few thunderstorms, mainly during the weekend.

MARINE...
The prevailing west winds will decrease today and allow for sea
breezes to develop in the afternoon. This will veer winds to the
east southeast around 10kts along coastal locations. Easterly flow
will then establish from Tuesday onwards, with speeds increasing
to around 15kts over the Atlantic on Wednesday. The strengthening
easterly flow will build seas over the Atlantic to 3-5ft at times
beyond Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  87  73  86  75 /  30  30  30  10
Fort Lauderdale  87  74  86  75 /  40  40  40  20
Miami            88  74  87  75 /  50  30  50  30
Naples           86  71  88  70 /  30  10  40  10

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....17/AR
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 230547
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
147 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail overnight at all terminals. Cannot rule
out a brief period of sprinkles and a broken cloud deck at KPBI
between 06Z and 08Z as the remnants of earlier activity over the
eastern Gulf move across the area. Challenge for this afternoon
will once again be the timing of the east coast sea breeze.
Westerly surface winds should again be just weak enough to allow a
late day sea breeze passage at east coast terminals. Again today
scattered showers and widely scattered thunderstorms are likely to
develop near the boundary.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  88  71  88  74 /  30  20  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  86  72  88  76 /  30  20  30  20
Miami            87  72  89  75 /  30  20  30  30
Naples           84  70  89  70 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22/KS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 230012 AAB
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
812 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...
The winds will be westerly tonight into Monday morning at all of
the east coast taf sites at 5 knots, before swinging to a
easterly direction and increasing to around 10 knots Monday
afternoon. The weather will also remain dry over most of the taf
sites tonight, except for a few showers in the area of FXE and FLL
until 02Z. The weather will also remain dry Monday morning before
thunderstorms return to the east coast taf sites Monday
afternoon. Therefore, VCSH will be added for KFLL and FXE until
02z and VCTS will be added for all of the east coast taf sites
after 18Z Monday.

KAPF taf site should be light and variable tonight into Monday
morning before increasing to 5 to 10 knots from the west for
Monday afternoon. The weather will also remain dry through Monday
morning at KAPF taf site before VCTS for Monday afternoon.

The ceiling and vis will also remain in VFR conditions tonight
into Monday for all of South Florida taf sites.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 745 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

UPDATE...Frontal boundary sagging through Central Florida this
evening, generating a few showers along with increasing clouds
ahead of it over the Gulf. They boundary is also likely
responsible for aiding the development of the storm over Central
Palm Beach county along the Lake Okeechobee breeze boundary.

Main change to evening forecast will be the inclusion of isolated
showers across the NW interior and isolated storms across SE Palm
Beach and NE Broward based on current radar trends this evening.
Will keep rain chances below mention for land areas late tonight
as frontal activity looks to diminish as it comes in and without
daytime heating. /alm

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Rest of this Afternoon and Tonight: Dry and subsident airmass
has won out across South Florida this afternoon with little in the
way of significant cumulus development, let alone showers and
storms. The one exception to an otherwise dry forecast for the
rest of this afternoon and evening will be along the immediate
Miami-Dade and possibly Broward coasts, where the east coast
seabreeze has managed to push in just to the mainland. Radar has
shown the occasional brief shower with the breeze, so won`t rule
out a shower in these counties east of I-95/Turnpike through
sunset. Increasing mid and high clouds will overspread the area
later this evening bringing mostly cloudy skies.

Stronger shortwave rotates around the larger east coast upper low
and trough overnight, bringing a surface boundary into the region.
Given time of day, rain chances over land look minimal, with a
few showers and storms possible over the local waters.

Monday and Tuesday: Upper level low and deep east coast trough will
meander across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern US early in the
week. This will continue to bring periodic upper level waves around
the base of the trough and across the FL peninsula. At the surface
we will see a few weak surface boundaries moving through, which will
help keep some lower level moisture pooled across the South Florida.

These factors will be enough to keep isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms in the forecast, with drying in the mid levels
helping limit storm coverage. Most activity will initiate on the sea
and lake breezes each afternoon, with prevailing westerly flow
focusing activity towards the interior and east coast. Frequent
lightning and gusty winds remain the main concerns with the
strongest cells.

Wednesday and Beyond: While the main upper level trough moves away
from the east coast by mid week, models have been consistent in
showing the southern portion cutting off over the Bahamas into
late week. At the surface, high pressure strengthens over the
Western Atlantic, leading to increasing easterly flow for the
latter half of the week.

South Florida looks to remain on the drier and more subsident
side of the upper level low to our east, with the ECMWF weak and
further east with the feature. However the increasing low level
easterly flow will help bring more low level moisture in,
increasing shower coverage with a few embedded thunderstorms.
Prevailing easterly flow will likely result in a pattern of
overnight and morning activity for the east coast and focus
afternoon activity over the interior and Gulf coast areas.

MARINE...Westerly flow prevails this afternoon, veering to the
northwest 10-15kts overnight behind a weak frontal boundary. West
flow will be lighter on Monday, allowing a more substantial east
coast seabreeze in the afternoon and bringing winds to the
southeast around 10kts. Prevailing easterly flow sets up from
Tuesday onwards, with speeds increasing to around 15kts over the
Atlantic on Wednesday. The strengthening easterly flow will build
seas over the Atlantic to 3-5ft at times beyond Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  92  70  88  71 /  10  10  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  90  71  86  72 /  20  20  30  20
Miami            92  72  87  72 /  10  10  30  20
Naples           88  72  84  70 /  20  20  20  10

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 222345
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
745 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.UPDATE...Frontal boundary sagging through Central Florida this
evening, generating a few showers along with increasing clouds
ahead of it over the Gulf. They boundary is also likely
responsible for aiding the development of the storm over Central
Palm Beach county along the Lake Okeechobee breeze boundary.

Main change to evening forecast will be the inclusion of isolated
showers across the NW interior and isolated storms across SE Palm
Beach and NE Broward based on current radar trends this evening.
Will keep rain chances below mention for land areas late tonight
as frontal activity looks to diminish as it comes in and without
daytime heating. /alm

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 411 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Rest of this Afternoon and Tonight: Dry and subsident airmass
has won out across South Florida this afternoon with little in the
way of significant cumulus development, let alone showers and
storms. The one exception to an otherwise dry forecast for the
rest of this afternoon and evening will be along the immediate
Miami-Dade and possibly Broward coasts, where the east coast
seabreeze has managed to push in just to the mainland. Radar has
shown the occasional brief shower with the breeze, so won`t rule
out a shower in these counties east of I-95/Turnpike through
sunset. Increasing mid and high clouds will overspread the area
later this evening bringing mostly cloudy skies.

Stronger shortwave rotates around the larger east coast upper low
and trough overnight, bringing a surface boundary into the region.
Given time of day, rain chances over land look minimal, with a
few showers and storms possible over the local waters.

Monday and Tuesday: Upper level low and deep east coast trough will
meander across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern US early in the
week. This will continue to bring periodic upper level waves around
the base of the trough and across the FL peninsula. At the surface
we will see a few weak surface boundaries moving through, which will
help keep some lower level moisture pooled across the South Florida.

These factors will be enough to keep isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms in the forecast, with drying in the mid levels
helping limit storm coverage. Most activity will initiate on the sea
and lake breezes each afternoon, with prevailing westerly flow
focusing activity towards the interior and east coast. Frequent
lightning and gusty winds remain the main concerns with the
strongest cells.

Wednesday and Beyond: While the main upper level trough moves away
from the east coast by mid week, models have been consistent in
showing the southern portion cutting off over the Bahamas into
late week. At the surface, high pressure strengthens over the
Western Atlantic, leading to increasing easterly flow for the
latter half of the week.

South Florida looks to remain on the drier and more subsident
side of the upper level low to our east, with the ECMWF weak and
further east with the feature. However the increasing low level
easterly flow will help bring more low level moisture in,
increasing shower coverage with a few embedded thunderstorms.
Prevailing easterly flow will likely result in a pattern of
overnight and morning activity for the east coast and focus
afternoon activity over the interior and Gulf coast areas.

MARINE...Westerly flow prevails this afternoon, veering to the
northwest 10-15kts overnight behind a weak frontal boundary. West
flow will be lighter on Monday, allowing a more substantial east
coast seabreeze in the afternoon and bringing winds to the
southeast around 10kts. Prevailing easterly flow sets up from
Tuesday onwards, with speeds increasing to around 15kts over the
Atlantic on Wednesday. The strengthening easterly flow will build
seas over the Atlantic to 3-5ft at times beyond Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  70  88  71  88 /  10  30  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  71  86  72  88 /  20  30  20  30
Miami            72  87  72  89 /  10  30  20  30
Naples           72  84  70  89 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 222011
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
411 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of this Afternoon and Tonight: Dry and subsident airmass
has won out across South Florida this afternoon with little in the
way of significant cumulus development, let alone showers and
storms. The one exception to an otherwise dry forecast for the
rest of this afternoon and evening will be along the immediate
Miami-Dade and possibly Broward coasts, where the east coast
seabreeze has managed to push in just to the mainland. Radar has
shown the occasional brief shower with the breeze, so won`t rule
out a shower in these counties east of I-95/Turnpike through
sunset. Increasing mid and high clouds will overspread the area
later this evening bringing mostly cloudy skies.

Stronger shortwave rotates around the larger east coast upper low
and trough overnight, bringing a surface boundary into the region.
Given time of day, rain chances over land look minimal, with a
few showers and storms possible over the local waters.

Monday and Tuesday: Upper level low and deep east coast trough will
meander across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern US early in the
week. This will continue to bring periodic upper level waves around
the base of the trough and across the FL peninsula. At the surface
we will see a few weak surface boundaries moving through, which will
help keep some lower level moisture pooled across the South Florida.

These factors will be enough to keep isolated to widely scattered
showers and storms in the forecast, with drying in the mid levels
helping limit storm coverage. Most activity will initiate on the sea
and lake breezes each afternoon, with prevailing westerly flow
focusing activity towards the interior and east coast. Frequent
lightning and gusty winds remain the main concerns with the
strongest cells.

Wednesday and Beyond: While the main upper level trough moves away
from the east coast by mid week, models have been consistent in
showing the southern portion cutting off over the Bahamas into
late week. At the surface, high pressure strengthens over the
Western Atlantic, leading to increasing easterly flow for the
latter half of the week.

South Florida looks to remain on the drier and more subsident
side of the upper level low to our east, with the ECMWF weak and
further east with the feature. However the increasing low level
easterly flow will help bring more low level moisture in,
increasing shower coverage with a few embedded thunderstorms.
Prevailing easterly flow will likely result in a pattern of
overnight and morning activity for the east coast and focus
afternoon activity over the interior and Gulf coast areas.

&&

.MARINE...Westerly flow prevails this afternoon, veering to the
northwest 10-15kts overnight behind a weak frontal boundary. West
flow will be lighter on Monday, allowing a more substantial east
coast seabreeze in the afternoon and bringing winds to the
southeast around 10kts. Prevailing easterly flow sets up from
Tuesday onwards, with speeds increasing to around 15kts over the
Atlantic on Wednesday. The strengthening easterly flow will build
seas over the Atlantic to 3-5ft at times beyond Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  70  88  71  88 /  10  30  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  71  86  72  88 /  10  30  20  30
Miami            72  87  72  89 /  10  30  20  30
Naples           72  84  70  89 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

ALM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221130
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
730 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions should prevail through Monday, although a few
showers (and possibly isolated thunderstorm) may occur during the
afternoons at eastern terminals. Thunder probabilities are quite
low so elected to adjusted to VCSH with 12z issuance. Winds should
remain west-north west, with the possible exception of KFLL, whose
proximity to coast may allow for sea-breeze induced onshore flow
during the afternoon. Speeds around 10 KT during the day then
light tonight. Gusts at Naples may reach 20 KT during the mid-
afternoon.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Today-Tonight: Benign conditions prevailed overnight with only a
few showers lingering over the Atlantic offshore waters.
Meanwhile, water vapor and satellite imagery show a mid-upper
level trough/low complex located across the Mid-Atlantic region,
which is still supporting large swath of deep convection down to
the Bahamas. The Florida peninsula is now located behind this
convection.

Drier air is now slowly filtering into the region in the wake of
the trough and should help in bringing down overall POPS across
the area. However, there will be enough remnant moisture which
along with daytime heating should be enough for a few showers
and/or thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. best chances
for thunderstorms reside over the Atlantic half of the CWA. The
benign conditions should again prevail this evening.

For the first half of the work week, the aforementioned upper
level low will continue to meander across the Mid-Atlantic
with several energy impulses traveling along the main trough. This
will keep some instability over the region, along with less
warming of the mid levels. Therefore, expect potential for showers
and a few thunderstorms to remain in place. Westerly winds will
also prevail and expected to dominate any seabreeze circulation
that tries to form each afternoon. Frequent lightning and gusty
winds remain the main concerns with the strongest cells.

For Wednesday and beyond, models are in better agreement by continuing
to show showers and storms each afternoon and evening. Building high
pressure across the West Atlantic will bring back prevailing easterly
flow, which will help in focusing afternoon activity back over
the interior and Gulf coast areas.

MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms are expected to return today associated
with the passage of a frontal boundary. Main threats for mariners
will be frequent cloud to water lighting and localized strong
gusty winds. A drying trend will follow the frontal passage for
the first half of the week, but lingering moisture and daytime
heating may provide enough favorable conditions for afternoon
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  92  71  86  69 /  20  10  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  71  86  70 /  30  10  20  20
Miami            92  72  87  70 /  20  10  20  20
Naples           88  72  84  70 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/AR
LONG TERM....17/AR
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220557
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
157 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR conditions prevailing overnight, but with light south
winds, a moist airmass in place, and plenty of rain the last
couple of days leading to wet ground, may see a broken low cloud
deck or some fog briefly develop at the interior terminals and
potentially KAPF, with brief periods of MVFR or lower possible.
Atlantic sea breeze does not appear likely to be a factor Sunday
with moderate westerly surface winds prevailing. Expect less
coverage of afternoon showers and thunderstorms Sunday compared to
the last two days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  89  71  88  73 /  30  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  91  74  88  75 /  30  20  20  20
Miami            92  73  89  72 /  30  10  20  20
Naples           87  73  88  71 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22/KS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 212340
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
740 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...Convection has wound down over most of South Florida
this evening, leaving a few lingering showers and storms. Satellite
shows the current upper level wave departing the region with a
much weaker one back over North Florida that will approach
overnight. Overall atmosphere looks drier this evening, and models
aren`t picking up on the potential for much development over land
tonight as in previous nights.

Isolated showers are possible along the east coast and far south
interior Miami-Dade county through an hour or so after sunrise as
the remaining boundary collisions play out. Beyond this, forecast
looks dry overnight. /ALM

&&

.AVIATION...
The winds will be mainly from a westerly direction at 5 knots or
less at all of the taf sites tonight before increasing to 5 to 10
knots on Sunday. There could be a few showers through 00Z for the
east coast taf sites before going dry for rest of the night hours.
KAPF taf site will remain dry tonight. The ceiling and vis will
also remain in the VFR conditions for tonight at all of the taf
sites.

54/BNB

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 510 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

This Afternoon-Tonight: A little stronger westerly flow held off
the east coast sea breeze development until early this afternoon
and allowed the Gulf breeze to race across the peninsula. We`ve
already had a collision of sea breezes along the east coast metro
this afternoon, with the strongest storms starting to move into
the Atlantic. Will have to continue to monitor for some
additional development through sunset with additional outflow
boundary collisions, and won`t rule out some additional storms in
areas that haven`t seen activity today. Conditions look dry
overnight as another surface boundary crosses the region.

Sunday-Monday: Upper level low will continue to meander across the
Mid-Atlantic early in the week, driving several weak trough
passages through the region along with weak surface boundaries.
The net effect of these looks to be a drier airmass, bringing rain
chances down to only 20-30 percent for both days. Prevailing
west-northwest flow looks to hold off the east coast sea breeze
both days, with afternoon storms favoring the east coast. It will
continue to be cool aloft with the influence of the trough, so
while overall coverage may be lower, a few strong storms can`t be
ruled out either afternoon. Frequent lightning and gusty winds
remain the main concerns.

Tuesday Onwards: While the synoptic details vary between the
models, the overall trend into the long terms is for continuing
showers and storms each afternoon and evening. While an upper
level low looks to cut off over the Bahamas late week, high
pressure rebuilding over the Western Atlantic at the surface will
flip prevailing flow to the east. This will focus afternoon
activity back over the interior and Gulf coast.

Marine...Main concern through the forecast period will continue
to be gusty showers and storms, especially in the afternoons and
evenings. Frequent cloud to water lightning will also accompany
many storms. Otherwise, west-northwest flow will prevail around
10-15kts through Monday, with some interruption along the east
coast by the seabreeze in the afternoons. East-southeast flow
develops by Tuesday as high pressure develops to the north and
continues through the remainder of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  73  89  71  88 /  20  30  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  77  91  74  88 /  20  30  20  20
Miami            76  92  73  89 /  20  30  10  20
Naples           76  87  73  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211419
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1019 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
12Z RAOB analysis revealed highly unstable atmosphere with plenty
of moisture, decent lapse rates, and broad ascent, all features
that were expected. Thus, forecast has changed little this
morning, with most significant adjustment being for POPs through
early afternoon. Lowered rain chances during this period as
guidance is in good agreement that initiation won`t occur until
1-2 PM. Still expecting a few strong/possibly severe wind gusts
with more robust updrafts. SPC maintaining Marginal Severe Risk
over eastern half of day. Convection should fire along east coast
sea breeze, which will significantly struggle to move inland due
to increasing southwesterly low-level flow.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 811 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

AVIATION...
Challenging TAFs this morning on several fronts. Firstly, wind
direction through the day will be transitional, with light winds
early this morning becoming southwest at up to 10 kts. Models are
in no agreement about sea-breeze, if it develops, timing. For now,
forecasts reflect earliest potential onshore winds onset, just
after noon. At some point by late afternoon, southwest surface wind
may again develop as deep layer flow becomes stronger from that
direction, though due to uncertain, this isn`t reflected in 12z
TAFs. Light/calm winds expected tonight.

The second major challenge is convective potential, particularly
timing. Again, the forecast reflect earlier onset time along east
coast, at 17z. Quite plausible tstms, which will be scattered in
nature, will hold off through mid-afternoon. Naples has lowest
POPs, thus only VCSH forecast. All terminals should see
showers/tstms end around sunset.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...
The main surface frontal boundary will keep moving across South
Florida today with convection once again becoming strong during
the afternoon and evening hours. Latest model x-sections and
soundings depict a cooler air mass aloft, along with plenty of
instability to support wide-spread showers and increasing chances
for severe thunderstorms. Outflow boundaries from the larger cells
will also provide additional sources of instability for convection
to focus on.

Uncertainty remains in the long term forecast with GFS showing a
faster drying trend establishing by early next week. But there is
still enough lack of inter-model consensus with several solutions
keeping enough lingering moisture for daytime heating to work
with, mainly in the afternoon hours. Also, the influence of a
mid-upper level low off the Mid-Atlantic coast may also provide
some additional instability for thunderstorms to keep developing
through the long term forecast period.

MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over the
coastal waters through the rest of the weekend, associated with
the passage of a frontal boundary. Main threats for mariners will
be gusty winds and frequent cloud to water lighting. A drying
trend should follow the frontal passage early next week, but
lingering moisture and daytime heating may provide enough
favorable conditions for afternoon thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  89  73  90  71 /  60  30  40  10
Fort Lauderdale  90  76  90  73 /  60  40  50  10
Miami            91  75  92  73 /  60  30  40  10
Naples           89  76  88  73 /  10  10  30   0

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....17/AR





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211211
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
811 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.AVIATION...
Challenging TAFs this morning on several fronts. Firstly, wind
direction through the day will be transitional, with light winds
early this morning becoming southwest at up to 10 kts. Models are
in no agreement about sea-breeze, if it develops, timing. For now,
forecasts reflect earliest potential onshore winds onset, just
after noon. At some point by late afternoon, southwest surface wind
may again develop as deep layer flow becomes stronger from that
direction, though due to uncertain, this isn`t reflected in 12z
TAFs. Light/calm winds expected tonight.

The second major challenge is convective potential, particularly
timing. Again, the forecast reflect earlier onset time along east
coast, at 17z. Quite plausible tstms, which will be scattered in
nature, will hold off through mid-afternoon. Naples has lowest
POPs, thus only VCSH forecast. All terminals should see
showers/tstms end around sunset.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 357 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...

Models still show a mid/upper level shortwave trough over the
area, which will keep providing additional lift for storms to
develop through the rest of the morning hours. Primary threats
from thunderstorms continue to be gusty winds, heavy rain, and
lightning. Small hail is also possible with the strongest cells.

The main surface frontal boundary will keep moving across South
Florida today with convection once again becoming strong during
the afternoon and evening hours. Latest model x-sections and
soundings depict a cooler air mass aloft, along with plenty of
instability to support wide-spread showers and increasing chances
for severe thunderstorms. Outflow boundaries from the larger
cells will also provide additional sources of instability for
convection to focus on.

Uncertainty remains in the long term forecast with GFS showing a
faster drying trend establishing by early next week. But there is
still enough lack of inter-model consensus with several solutions
keeping enough lingering moisture for daytime heating to work
with, mainly in the afternoon hours. Also, the influence of a
mid-upper level low off the Mid-Atlantic coast may also provide
some additional instability for thunderstorms to keep developing
through the long term forecast period.

MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over the
coastal waters through the rest of the weekend, associated with
the passage of a frontal boundary. Main threats for mariners will
be gusty winds and frequent cloud to water lighting. A drying
trend should follow the frontal passage early next week, but
lingering moisture and daytime heating may provide enough
favorable conditions for afternoon thunderstorms each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  89  73  90  71 /  60  30  40  10
Fort Lauderdale  90  76  90  73 /  60  40  50  10
Miami            91  75  92  73 /  60  30  40  10
Naples           89  76  88  73 /  30  10  30   0

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....17/AR
AVIATION...23/SK





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities