Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KMFL 052023
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
323 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEXT WEEK.  WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SLIGHT SEA BREEZE INTRUSIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH BOTH FLL AND PBI ON
TRACK TO SET/TIE RECORD DAILY MINIMA. ISOLATED SHOWER CLUSTER OVER
INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY COULD MOVE NNW INTO PORTIONS OF HENDRY
COUNTY AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY. OTHER THAN WHERE
THIS SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN PCPN-FREE THROUGH TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT...WHILE WEAKENING. IT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY MORE
PRONOUNCED SURFACE BOUNDARY PERSISTING...THUS BETTER CONVERGENCE
AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NOW IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MAXIMA AND AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MINIMA. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED
OUT IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AROUND 03Z. FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY IN
THE INTERIOR AND WEST WITH TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY IMPACTED WITH
LOW STRATUS OR FOG AROUND 09Z ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
WITH 00Z OR 06Z TAF`S HAVING MORE DETAIL.

60

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER GULF WATERS...WITH SEAS
INCREASING IN THE WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED OVER THESE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  82  70  80 /   0  30  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  82  68  79 /   0  20  20  40
MIAMI            71  84  69  82 /   0  20  20  40
NAPLES           66  82  63  81 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 052023
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
323 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE REGION FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
NEXT WEEK.  WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY)...
WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SLIGHT SEA BREEZE INTRUSIONS.
TEMPERATURES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL...WITH BOTH FLL AND PBI ON
TRACK TO SET/TIE RECORD DAILY MINIMA. ISOLATED SHOWER CLUSTER OVER
INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY COULD MOVE NNW INTO PORTIONS OF HENDRY
COUNTY AND PERHAPS FAR WESTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY. OTHER THAN WHERE
THIS SEA-BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS PRESENT...SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
REMAIN PCPN-FREE THROUGH TONIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
CROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT...WHILE WEAKENING. IT IS EXPECTED TO
STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY...THEN REMAIN IN THE VICINITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS SUGGEST SLIGHTLY MORE
PRONOUNCED SURFACE BOUNDARY PERSISTING...THUS BETTER CONVERGENCE
AND A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS NOW IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY)...
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR MAXIMA AND AROUND 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MINIMA. THE
STALLED FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...WITH DRIER AIR BUILDING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT.
SHOWER CHANCES WILL DIMINISH...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANT BE RULED
OUT IN SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AROUND 03Z. FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY IN
THE INTERIOR AND WEST WITH TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY IMPACTED WITH
LOW STRATUS OR FOG AROUND 09Z ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
WITH 00Z OR 06Z TAF`S HAVING MORE DETAIL.

60

&&

.MARINE...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES WATERS TONIGHT THEN STALLS OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT OVER GULF WATERS...WITH SEAS
INCREASING IN THE WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY OVER THE WEEKEND.
AN ADVISORY MAY ALSO BE NEEDED OVER THESE WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  82  70  80 /   0  30  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  82  68  79 /   0  20  20  40
MIAMI            71  84  69  82 /   0  20  20  40
NAPLES           66  82  63  81 /   0  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 051756
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1256 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AROUND 03Z. FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY IN
THE INTERIOR AND WEST WITH TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY IMPACTED WITH
LOW STRATUS OR FOG AROUND 09Z ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
WITH 00Z OR 06Z TAF`S HAVING MORE DETAIL.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
BENIGN WEATHER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR REMOTE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. NO CHANGES IN OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH TERMINAL KAPF IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SOUTHWESTERLY SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NE-SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
RIDGING ORIENTED FROM NE-SW FROM THE WESTERN ATL TO THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE SPILLS NEWD BETWEEN THESE
TWO UPPER FEATURES WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES
LOCALLY TODAY. THE LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER...DOES
INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AS A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PENETRATES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER THE SERN STATES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN STALL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE RETURNS NORTHWARD AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH TEMPS REMAINING 5-10 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES.


MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH AND GULF
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  84  72  82 /  20  30  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  82  69  80 /  10  20  30  40
MIAMI            70  84  69  83 /  10  20  20  30
NAPLES           67  82  64  83 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 051756
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1256 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AROUND 03Z. FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY IN
THE INTERIOR AND WEST WITH TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY IMPACTED WITH
LOW STRATUS OR FOG AROUND 09Z ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
WITH 00Z OR 06Z TAF`S HAVING MORE DETAIL.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
BENIGN WEATHER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR REMOTE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. NO CHANGES IN OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH TERMINAL KAPF IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SOUTHWESTERLY SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NE-SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
RIDGING ORIENTED FROM NE-SW FROM THE WESTERN ATL TO THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE SPILLS NEWD BETWEEN THESE
TWO UPPER FEATURES WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES
LOCALLY TODAY. THE LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER...DOES
INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AS A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PENETRATES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER THE SERN STATES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN STALL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE RETURNS NORTHWARD AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH TEMPS REMAINING 5-10 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES.


MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH AND GULF
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  84  72  82 /  20  30  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  82  69  80 /  10  20  30  40
MIAMI            70  84  69  83 /  10  20  20  30
NAPLES           67  82  64  83 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 051756
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1256 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AROUND 03Z. FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY IN
THE INTERIOR AND WEST WITH TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY IMPACTED WITH
LOW STRATUS OR FOG AROUND 09Z ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
WITH 00Z OR 06Z TAF`S HAVING MORE DETAIL.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
BENIGN WEATHER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR REMOTE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. NO CHANGES IN OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH TERMINAL KAPF IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SOUTHWESTERLY SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NE-SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
RIDGING ORIENTED FROM NE-SW FROM THE WESTERN ATL TO THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE SPILLS NEWD BETWEEN THESE
TWO UPPER FEATURES WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES
LOCALLY TODAY. THE LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER...DOES
INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AS A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PENETRATES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER THE SERN STATES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN STALL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE RETURNS NORTHWARD AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH TEMPS REMAINING 5-10 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES.


MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH AND GULF
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  84  72  82 /  20  30  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  82  69  80 /  10  20  30  40
MIAMI            70  84  69  83 /  10  20  20  30
NAPLES           67  82  64  83 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 051756
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1256 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH
AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS FORECAST
ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AROUND 03Z. FOG IS EXPECTED MAINLY IN
THE INTERIOR AND WEST WITH TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY IMPACTED WITH
LOW STRATUS OR FOG AROUND 09Z ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
WITH 00Z OR 06Z TAF`S HAVING MORE DETAIL.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

UPDATE...
BENIGN WEATHER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR REMOTE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. NO CHANGES IN OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH TERMINAL KAPF IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SOUTHWESTERLY SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NE-SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
RIDGING ORIENTED FROM NE-SW FROM THE WESTERN ATL TO THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE SPILLS NEWD BETWEEN THESE
TWO UPPER FEATURES WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES
LOCALLY TODAY. THE LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER...DOES
INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AS A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PENETRATES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER THE SERN STATES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN STALL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE RETURNS NORTHWARD AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH TEMPS REMAINING 5-10 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES.


MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH AND GULF
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  84  72  82 /  20  30  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  82  69  80 /  10  20  30  40
MIAMI            70  84  69  83 /  10  20  20  30
NAPLES           67  82  64  83 /  10  20  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 051439
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
BENIGN WEATHER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR REMOTE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. NO CHANGES IN OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH TERMINAL KAPF IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SOUTHWESTERLY SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NE-SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
RIDGING ORIENTED FROM NE-SW FROM THE WESTERN ATL TO THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE SPILLS NEWD BETWEEN THESE
TWO UPPER FEATURES WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES
LOCALLY TODAY. THE LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER...DOES
INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AS A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PENETRATES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER THE SERN STATES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN STALL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE RETURNS NORTHWARD AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH TEMPS REMAINING 5-10 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES.


MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH AND GULF
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  70  84  72 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  71  82  69 /  10  10  20  30
MIAMI            85  70  84  69 /  10  10  20  20
NAPLES           84  67  82  64 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 051439
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
BENIGN WEATHER TODAY...EXCEPT FOR REMOTE POTENTIAL OF SHOWERS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. NO CHANGES IN OVERALL
FORECAST THINKING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH TERMINAL KAPF IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SOUTHWESTERLY SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NE-SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
RIDGING ORIENTED FROM NE-SW FROM THE WESTERN ATL TO THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE SPILLS NEWD BETWEEN THESE
TWO UPPER FEATURES WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES
LOCALLY TODAY. THE LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER...DOES
INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AS A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PENETRATES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER THE SERN STATES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN STALL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE RETURNS NORTHWARD AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH TEMPS REMAINING 5-10 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES.


MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH AND GULF
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  70  84  72 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  71  82  69 /  10  10  20  30
MIAMI            85  70  84  69 /  10  10  20  20
NAPLES           84  67  82  64 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 051137
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH TERMINAL KAPF IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SOUTHWESTERLY SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NE-SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
RIDGING ORIENTED FROM NE-SW FROM THE WESTERN ATL TO THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE SPILLS NEWD BETWEEN THESE
TWO UPPER FEATURES WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES
LOCALLY TODAY. THE LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER...DOES
INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AS A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PENETRATES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER THE SERN STATES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN STALL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE RETURNS NORTHWARD AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH TEMPS REMAINING 5-10 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES.


MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH AND GULF
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  70  84  72 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  71  82  69 /  10  10  20  30
MIAMI            85  70  84  69 /  10  10  20  20
NAPLES           84  67  82  64 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 051137
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH TERMINAL KAPF IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SOUTHWESTERLY SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NE-SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
RIDGING ORIENTED FROM NE-SW FROM THE WESTERN ATL TO THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE SPILLS NEWD BETWEEN THESE
TWO UPPER FEATURES WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES
LOCALLY TODAY. THE LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER...DOES
INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AS A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PENETRATES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER THE SERN STATES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN STALL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE RETURNS NORTHWARD AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH TEMPS REMAINING 5-10 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES.


MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH AND GULF
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  70  84  72 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  71  82  69 /  10  10  20  30
MIAMI            85  70  84  69 /  10  10  20  20
NAPLES           84  67  82  64 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 051137
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
637 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
TERMINALS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MAINLY SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ALTHOUGH TERMINAL KAPF IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
SOUTHWESTERLY SEA BREEZE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NE-SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
RIDGING ORIENTED FROM NE-SW FROM THE WESTERN ATL TO THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE SPILLS NEWD BETWEEN THESE
TWO UPPER FEATURES WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES
LOCALLY TODAY. THE LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER...DOES
INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AS A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PENETRATES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER THE SERN STATES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN STALL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE RETURNS NORTHWARD AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH TEMPS REMAINING 5-10 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES.


MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH AND GULF
WATERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  70  84  72 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  71  82  69 /  10  10  20  30
MIAMI            85  70  84  69 /  10  10  20  20
NAPLES           84  67  82  64 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 050832
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NE-SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
RIDGING ORIENTED FROM NE-SW FROM THE WESTERN ATL TO THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE SPILLS NEWD BETWEEN THESE
TWO UPPER FEATURES WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES
LOCALLY TODAY. THE LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER...DOES
INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AS A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PENETRATES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER THE SERN STATES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN STALL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE RETURNS NORTHWARD AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH TEMPS REMAINING 5-10 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH AND GULF
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  70  84  72 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  71  82  69 /  10  10  20  30
MIAMI            85  70  84  69 /  10  10  20  20
NAPLES           84  67  82  64 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 050832
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NE-SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
RIDGING ORIENTED FROM NE-SW FROM THE WESTERN ATL TO THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE SPILLS NEWD BETWEEN THESE
TWO UPPER FEATURES WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES
LOCALLY TODAY. THE LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER...DOES
INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AS A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PENETRATES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER THE SERN STATES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN STALL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE RETURNS NORTHWARD AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH TEMPS REMAINING 5-10 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH AND GULF
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  70  84  72 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  71  82  69 /  10  10  20  30
MIAMI            85  70  84  69 /  10  10  20  20
NAPLES           84  67  82  64 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

85/AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 050832
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NE-SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
RIDGING ORIENTED FROM NE-SW FROM THE WESTERN ATL TO THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE SPILLS NEWD BETWEEN THESE
TWO UPPER FEATURES WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES
LOCALLY TODAY. THE LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER...DOES
INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AS A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PENETRATES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER THE SERN STATES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN STALL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE RETURNS NORTHWARD AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH TEMPS REMAINING 5-10 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH AND GULF
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  70  84  72 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  71  82  69 /  10  10  20  30
MIAMI            85  70  84  69 /  10  10  20  20
NAPLES           84  67  82  64 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 050832
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
332 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SATURDAY)...

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A POSITIVELY-TILTED TROUGH
EXTENDING NE-SW FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE BAJA PENINSULA AND
RIDGING ORIENTED FROM NE-SW FROM THE WESTERN ATL TO THE SWRN GULF OF
MEXICO. AS PLENTY OF MID TO UPPER MOISTURE SPILLS NEWD BETWEEN THESE
TWO UPPER FEATURES WNW OF THE LOCAL AREA, AN ABUNDANCE OF DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
SUPPORT ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES
LOCALLY TODAY. THE LATEST HIRES MODEL OUTPUT...HOWEVER...DOES
INDICATE A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AS A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PENETRATES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT
PATTERN AND INDICATES THE UPPER RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENING AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCES EWD FROM THE PLAINS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY
ANALYZED OVER THE SERN STATES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE LOCAL
AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY, THEN STALL INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY OVER PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL AREA. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT THROUGH THIS
PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY-THURSDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE STATE RETURNS NORTHWARD AND UPPER
HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A FAIRLY DRY
PATTERN ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS PROGGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE EAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS WITH TEMPS REMAINING 5-10 DEG ABOVE
AVERAGE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES BEYOND WEDNESDAY DUE TO
INCREASING MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER TODAY AND MOVE INTO THE MARINE
AREAS TONIGHT. THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE REGION
OVER THE WEEKEND AND KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST.
INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF THE NORTH ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH AND GULF
WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  70  84  72 /  10  20  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  71  82  69 /  10  10  20  30
MIAMI            85  70  84  69 /  10  10  20  20
NAPLES           84  67  82  64 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

85/AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 050633
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
133 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TODAY PERIODICALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT APF THROUGH THIS TIME. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TO THE SOUTH AS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS LIGHT
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE SETTING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT APF.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA (CHANCES TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN PACKAGE
AT THIS TIME). /AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...THE MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING (SLOW MO BALLOON RELEASE
VIDEO UPLOADED TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMIAMI) SHOWS
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PW IS AT
1.08 INCHES...FAIRLY DRY ALL AROUND. KAMX RADAR SHOWING A FEW
SPRINKLES OFF THE MIAMI-DADE COAST...BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FORECAST AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER WARM DAY OCCURRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...BUT GULF SEA BREEZE HAS
INTRUDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULDNT CALM AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THREAT FOR FOG IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
STILL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED FLORIDA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE.
THUS...EXPECT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  70  83  70 /   0  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  72  82  70 /   0  10  20  10
MIAMI            85  70  84  71 /   0   0  20  10
NAPLES           84  67  82  65 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 050633
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
133 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TODAY PERIODICALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT APF THROUGH THIS TIME. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TO THE SOUTH AS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS LIGHT
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE SETTING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT APF.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA (CHANCES TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN PACKAGE
AT THIS TIME). /AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...THE MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING (SLOW MO BALLOON RELEASE
VIDEO UPLOADED TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMIAMI) SHOWS
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PW IS AT
1.08 INCHES...FAIRLY DRY ALL AROUND. KAMX RADAR SHOWING A FEW
SPRINKLES OFF THE MIAMI-DADE COAST...BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FORECAST AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER WARM DAY OCCURRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...BUT GULF SEA BREEZE HAS
INTRUDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULDNT CALM AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THREAT FOR FOG IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
STILL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED FLORIDA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE.
THUS...EXPECT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  70  83  70 /   0  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  72  82  70 /   0  10  20  10
MIAMI            85  70  84  71 /   0   0  20  10
NAPLES           84  67  82  65 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 050633
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
133 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TODAY PERIODICALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT APF THROUGH THIS TIME. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TO THE SOUTH AS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS LIGHT
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE SETTING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT APF.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA (CHANCES TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN PACKAGE
AT THIS TIME). /AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...THE MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING (SLOW MO BALLOON RELEASE
VIDEO UPLOADED TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMIAMI) SHOWS
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PW IS AT
1.08 INCHES...FAIRLY DRY ALL AROUND. KAMX RADAR SHOWING A FEW
SPRINKLES OFF THE MIAMI-DADE COAST...BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FORECAST AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER WARM DAY OCCURRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...BUT GULF SEA BREEZE HAS
INTRUDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULDNT CALM AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THREAT FOR FOG IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
STILL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED FLORIDA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE.
THUS...EXPECT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  70  83  70 /   0  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  72  82  70 /   0  10  20  10
MIAMI            85  70  84  71 /   0   0  20  10
NAPLES           84  67  82  65 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 050633
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
133 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
TODAY PERIODICALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST. MVFR VSBYS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT APF THROUGH THIS TIME. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TO THE SOUTH AS THE RIDGE OVERHEAD WEAKENS AND A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS LIGHT
FLOW COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE SETTING UP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS AT APF.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA (CHANCES TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN PACKAGE
AT THIS TIME). /AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 824 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...THE MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING (SLOW MO BALLOON RELEASE
VIDEO UPLOADED TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMIAMI) SHOWS
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PW IS AT
1.08 INCHES...FAIRLY DRY ALL AROUND. KAMX RADAR SHOWING A FEW
SPRINKLES OFF THE MIAMI-DADE COAST...BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FORECAST AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER WARM DAY OCCURRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...BUT GULF SEA BREEZE HAS
INTRUDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULDNT CALM AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THREAT FOR FOG IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
STILL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED FLORIDA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE.
THUS...EXPECT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  70  83  70 /   0  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  72  82  70 /   0  10  20  10
MIAMI            85  70  84  71 /   0   0  20  10
NAPLES           84  67  82  65 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 050124
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
824 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...THE MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING (SLOW MO BALLOON RELEASE
VIDEO UPLOADED TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMIAMI) SHOWS
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PW IS AT
1.08 INCHES...FAIRLY DRY ALL AROUND. KAMX RADAR SHOWING A FEW
SPRINKLES OFF THE MIAMI-DADE COAST...BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FORECAST AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER WARM DAY OCCURRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...BUT GULF SEA BREEZE HAS
INTRUDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULDNT CALM AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THREAT FOR FOG IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
STILL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED FLORIDA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE.
THUS...EXPECT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  70  83 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  82 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            72  85  70  84 /   0   0   0  20
NAPLES           67  84  67  82 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 050124
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
824 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...THE MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING (SLOW MO BALLOON RELEASE
VIDEO UPLOADED TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMIAMI) SHOWS
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PW IS AT
1.08 INCHES...FAIRLY DRY ALL AROUND. KAMX RADAR SHOWING A FEW
SPRINKLES OFF THE MIAMI-DADE COAST...BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FORECAST AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER WARM DAY OCCURRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...BUT GULF SEA BREEZE HAS
INTRUDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULDNT CALM AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THREAT FOR FOG IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
STILL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED FLORIDA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE.
THUS...EXPECT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  70  83 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  82 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            72  85  70  84 /   0   0   0  20
NAPLES           67  84  67  82 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 050124
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
824 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...THE MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING (SLOW MO BALLOON RELEASE
VIDEO UPLOADED TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMIAMI) SHOWS
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PW IS AT
1.08 INCHES...FAIRLY DRY ALL AROUND. KAMX RADAR SHOWING A FEW
SPRINKLES OFF THE MIAMI-DADE COAST...BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FORECAST AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER WARM DAY OCCURRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...BUT GULF SEA BREEZE HAS
INTRUDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULDNT CALM AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THREAT FOR FOG IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
STILL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED FLORIDA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE.
THUS...EXPECT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  70  83 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  82 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            72  85  70  84 /   0   0   0  20
NAPLES           67  84  67  82 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 050124
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
824 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...THE MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING (SLOW MO BALLOON RELEASE
VIDEO UPLOADED TO OUR FACEBOOK PAGE...FACEBOOK.COM/NWSMIAMI) SHOWS
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. PW IS AT
1.08 INCHES...FAIRLY DRY ALL AROUND. KAMX RADAR SHOWING A FEW
SPRINKLES OFF THE MIAMI-DADE COAST...BUT NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE.
SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 640 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FORECAST AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER WARM DAY OCCURRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...BUT GULF SEA BREEZE HAS
INTRUDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULDNT CALM AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THREAT FOR FOG IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
STILL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED FLORIDA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE.
THUS...EXPECT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  70  83 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  82 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            72  85  70  84 /   0   0   0  20
NAPLES           67  84  67  82 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 042340
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
640 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FORECAST AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER WARM DAY OCCURRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...BUT GULF SEA BREEZE HAS
INTRUDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULDNT CALM AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THREAT FOR FOG IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
STILL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED FLORIDA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE.
THUS...EXPECT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  70  83 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  82 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            72  85  70  84 /   0   0   0  20
NAPLES           67  84  67  82 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 042340
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
640 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ON
THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND...WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
FORECAST AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN WELL AWAY FROM THE TAF SITES. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS AND THEN BEGIN TO
DIMINISH NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 327 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER WARM DAY OCCURRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...BUT GULF SEA BREEZE HAS
INTRUDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULDNT CALM AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THREAT FOR FOG IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
STILL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED FLORIDA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE.
THUS...EXPECT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  70  83 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  82 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            72  85  70  84 /   0   0   0  20
NAPLES           67  84  67  82 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 042027
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
327 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER WARM DAY OCCURRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...BUT GULF SEA BREEZE HAS
INTRUDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULDNT CALM AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THREAT FOR FOG IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
STILL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED FLORIDA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE.
THUS...EXPECT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  70  83 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  82 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            72  85  70  84 /   0   0   0  20
NAPLES           67  84  67  82 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 042027
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
327 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER WARM DAY OCCURRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...BUT GULF SEA BREEZE HAS
INTRUDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULDNT CALM AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THREAT FOR FOG IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
STILL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED FLORIDA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE.
THUS...EXPECT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  70  83 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  82 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            72  85  70  84 /   0   0   0  20
NAPLES           67  84  67  82 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 042027
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
327 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER WARM DAY OCCURRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...BUT GULF SEA BREEZE HAS
INTRUDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULDNT CALM AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THREAT FOR FOG IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
STILL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED FLORIDA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE.
THUS...EXPECT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  70  83 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  82 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            72  85  70  84 /   0   0   0  20
NAPLES           67  84  67  82 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 042027
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
327 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN
STALLS OVER THE WEEKEND...GIVING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BUT LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT)...
ANOTHER WARM DAY OCCURRING IN SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S. SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILS...BUT GULF SEA BREEZE HAS
INTRUDED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASING SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT...WINDS SHOULDNT CALM AS MUCH AS
PREVIOUS NIGHTS...AND THREAT FOR FOG IS SOMEWHAT LESS.
STILL...EXPECT PATCHY FOG OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIPRES THAT HAS DOMINATED FLORIDA THIS WEEK WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE EAST THURSDAY...AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS NORTH
FLORIDA. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN STALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FRIDAY. BY
FRIDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
WEEKEND...THEN SLOW RETREAT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THE FEATURE.
THUS...EXPECT LOW SHOWER CHANCES WITH CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT/MODERATE SE WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AND STALL.
NORTHERLY FLOW IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BEFORE PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW RETURNS BY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  70  83 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  82 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            72  85  70  84 /   0   0   0  20
NAPLES           67  84  67  82 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 041748
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1248 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
FOG DISSIPATED EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS...LEAVING BEHIND
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST ON TRACK...THUS ONLY
MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDS WERE HOURLY ONES TO BETTER REFLECT PRESENT
CONDITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN INTERIOR PENINSULA. TERMINAL KAPF
MIGHT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SO FAR
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE ANY OCCURRENCE WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AND MAY NEAR RECORDS (5-10 DEG F ABOVE AVE) IN
SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE FOG CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE BETTER SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN
THE MOIST SSE FLOW.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FEATURES AN
UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO.


MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
SEAS DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  86  69  82 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  71  82 /   0  10  10  20
MIAMI            72  86  71  83 /   0  10  10  20
NAPLES           66  83  66  81 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 041748
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1248 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
FOG DISSIPATED EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS...LEAVING BEHIND
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST ON TRACK...THUS ONLY
MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDS WERE HOURLY ONES TO BETTER REFLECT PRESENT
CONDITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN INTERIOR PENINSULA. TERMINAL KAPF
MIGHT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SO FAR
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE ANY OCCURRENCE WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AND MAY NEAR RECORDS (5-10 DEG F ABOVE AVE) IN
SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE FOG CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE BETTER SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN
THE MOIST SSE FLOW.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FEATURES AN
UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO.


MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
SEAS DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  86  69  82 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  71  82 /   0  10  10  20
MIAMI            72  86  71  83 /   0  10  10  20
NAPLES           66  83  66  81 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 041748
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1248 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
FOG DISSIPATED EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS...LEAVING BEHIND
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST ON TRACK...THUS ONLY
MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDS WERE HOURLY ONES TO BETTER REFLECT PRESENT
CONDITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN INTERIOR PENINSULA. TERMINAL KAPF
MIGHT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SO FAR
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE ANY OCCURRENCE WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AND MAY NEAR RECORDS (5-10 DEG F ABOVE AVE) IN
SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE FOG CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE BETTER SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN
THE MOIST SSE FLOW.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FEATURES AN
UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO.


MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
SEAS DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  86  69  82 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  71  82 /   0  10  10  20
MIAMI            72  86  71  83 /   0  10  10  20
NAPLES           66  83  66  81 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 041748
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1248 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THE REMAINING AFTERNOON
HOURS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. PATCHY FOG IS
EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY...BUT MAINLY
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PENINSULA WITH
TERMINAL KAPF POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF FOG
AROUND 10Z TO 12Z THURSDAY MORNING.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 931 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

UPDATE...
FOG DISSIPATED EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS...LEAVING BEHIND
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST ON TRACK...THUS ONLY
MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDS WERE HOURLY ONES TO BETTER REFLECT PRESENT
CONDITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN INTERIOR PENINSULA. TERMINAL KAPF
MIGHT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SO FAR
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE ANY OCCURRENCE WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AND MAY NEAR RECORDS (5-10 DEG F ABOVE AVE) IN
SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE FOG CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE BETTER SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN
THE MOIST SSE FLOW.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FEATURES AN
UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO.


MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
SEAS DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  86  69  82 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  71  82 /   0  10  10  20
MIAMI            72  86  71  83 /   0  10  10  20
NAPLES           66  83  66  81 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 041431
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
931 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOG DISSIPATED EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS...LEAVING BEHIND
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST ON TRACK...THUS ONLY
MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDS WERE HOURLY ONES TO BETTER REFLECT PRESENT
CONDITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN INTERIOR PENINSULA. TERMINAL KAPF
MIGHT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SO FAR
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE ANY OCCURRENCE WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AND MAY NEAR RECORDS (5-10 DEG F ABOVE AVE) IN
SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE FOG CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE BETTER SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN
THE MOIST SSE FLOW.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FEATURES AN
UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO.


MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
SEAS DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  69 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  71 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            84  72  86  71 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           84  66  83  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 041431
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
931 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
FOG DISSIPATED EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS FEW MORNINGS...LEAVING BEHIND
PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. FORECAST ON TRACK...THUS ONLY
MODIFICATIONS TO GRIDS WERE HOURLY ONES TO BETTER REFLECT PRESENT
CONDITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH NO SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 655 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN INTERIOR PENINSULA. TERMINAL KAPF
MIGHT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SO FAR
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE ANY OCCURRENCE WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AND MAY NEAR RECORDS (5-10 DEG F ABOVE AVE) IN
SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE FOG CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE BETTER SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN
THE MOIST SSE FLOW.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FEATURES AN
UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO.


MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
SEAS DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  69 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  71 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            84  72  86  71 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           84  66  83  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 041155
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
655 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN INTERIOR PENINSULA. TERMINAL KAPF
MIGHT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SO FAR
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE ANY OCCURRENCE WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AND MAY NEAR RECORDS (5-10 DEG F ABOVE AVE) IN
SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE FOG CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE BETTER SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN
THE MOIST SSE FLOW.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FEATURES AN
UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO.


MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
SEAS DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  69 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  71 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            84  72  86  71 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           84  66  83  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 041155
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
655 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN INTERIOR PENINSULA. TERMINAL KAPF
MIGHT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SO FAR
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE ANY OCCURRENCE WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AND MAY NEAR RECORDS (5-10 DEG F ABOVE AVE) IN
SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE FOG CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE BETTER SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN
THE MOIST SSE FLOW.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FEATURES AN
UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO.


MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
SEAS DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  69 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  71 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            84  72  86  71 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           84  66  83  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 041155
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
655 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR ALL SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EVENING.
REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE FOG
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN INTERIOR PENINSULA. TERMINAL KAPF
MIGHT EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING BUT SO FAR
OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE ANY OCCURRENCE WITH MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AND MAY NEAR RECORDS (5-10 DEG F ABOVE AVE) IN
SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE FOG CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE BETTER SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN
THE MOIST SSE FLOW.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FEATURES AN
UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO.


MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
SEAS DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  69 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  71 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            84  72  86  71 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           84  66  83  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 040816
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AND MAY NEAR RECORDS (5-10 DEG F ABOVE AVE) IN
SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE FOG CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE BETTER SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN
THE MOIST SSE FLOW.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FEATURES AN
UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
SEAS DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  69 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  71 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            84  72  86  71 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           84  66  83  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 040816
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AND MAY NEAR RECORDS (5-10 DEG F ABOVE AVE) IN
SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE FOG CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE BETTER SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN
THE MOIST SSE FLOW.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FEATURES AN
UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
SEAS DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  69 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  71 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            84  72  86  71 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           84  66  83  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 040816
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AND MAY NEAR RECORDS (5-10 DEG F ABOVE AVE) IN
SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE FOG CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE BETTER SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN
THE MOIST SSE FLOW.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FEATURES AN
UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
SEAS DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  69 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  71 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            84  72  86  71 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           84  66  83  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 040816
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND INDICATES THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUING AS DEEP LAYER RIDGING DOMINATES. THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL
STEADILY VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES INTO
THE LOCAL AREA BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL PERSIST EACH DAY AND MAY NEAR RECORDS (5-10 DEG F ABOVE AVE) IN
SOME AREAS. DESPITE THE DRY MID/UPPER LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE, PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
THE FOG CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING PERIODS. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
LOCAL AREA WHERE THE BETTER SOURCE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS
PROJECTED AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. HOWEVER, A COMBINATION OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY, MOIST SRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS LATER THURSDAY/FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE
OF A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITHIN
THE MOIST SSE FLOW.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY)...

ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE
STATE. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP AT LEAST ISLTD/SCT SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING WEEK DUE TO
PERSISTENT MODEL DIFFERENCES, THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY FEATURES AN
UPPER PATTERN CHARACTERIZED WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD BY THE
MID-WEEK TIME FRAME AND TROUGHING OVER NRN MEXICO.

&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. INCREASING
SEAS DUE TO A NORTHERLY SWELL MAY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  69 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  71 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            84  72  86  71 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           84  66  83  66 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 040520 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1220 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILINGS AND VIS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS THAT KAPF AND KTMB COULD FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z TODAY DUE TO FOG FORMATION OVER THE TAF SITES.

THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING. THE KAPF WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...A TRANQUIL, WARM EVENING PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER A VERY WARM EARLY MARCH DAY. NAPLES WAS JUST 1F-DEGREE SHY
OF TYING THE RECORD HIGH...REACHING 87F TODAY. IT WAS IN THE LOWER
80S ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES AS WELL. THE EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST LOW LEVELS
BUT ONLY UP TO ABOUT 3K FT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS NOW SHOWING UP ON KAMX RADAR OFF THE
UPPER KEYS, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER @NWSMIAMI

&&
GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KAPF WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR BUT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMA WILL EXCEED 80F AND MINIMA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG PRODUCTION EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA...BUT
HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

WITH PERSISTENT ESE WINDS...ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL BE PRONE TO RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION. THE
FEATURE WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND
OVERALL...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WATERS
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY...BEFORE STALLING
OUT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  71  81 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  81 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            71  85  71  83 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           67  84  68  81 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 040520 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1220 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILINGS AND VIS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS THAT KAPF AND KTMB COULD FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z TODAY DUE TO FOG FORMATION OVER THE TAF SITES.

THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING. THE KAPF WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...A TRANQUIL, WARM EVENING PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER A VERY WARM EARLY MARCH DAY. NAPLES WAS JUST 1F-DEGREE SHY
OF TYING THE RECORD HIGH...REACHING 87F TODAY. IT WAS IN THE LOWER
80S ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES AS WELL. THE EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST LOW LEVELS
BUT ONLY UP TO ABOUT 3K FT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS NOW SHOWING UP ON KAMX RADAR OFF THE
UPPER KEYS, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER @NWSMIAMI

&&
GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KAPF WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR BUT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMA WILL EXCEED 80F AND MINIMA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG PRODUCTION EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA...BUT
HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

WITH PERSISTENT ESE WINDS...ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL BE PRONE TO RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION. THE
FEATURE WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND
OVERALL...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WATERS
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY...BEFORE STALLING
OUT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  71  81 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  81 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            71  85  71  83 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           67  84  68  81 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 040520 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1220 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILINGS AND VIS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS THAT KAPF AND KTMB COULD FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z TODAY DUE TO FOG FORMATION OVER THE TAF SITES.

THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING. THE KAPF WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...A TRANQUIL, WARM EVENING PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER A VERY WARM EARLY MARCH DAY. NAPLES WAS JUST 1F-DEGREE SHY
OF TYING THE RECORD HIGH...REACHING 87F TODAY. IT WAS IN THE LOWER
80S ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES AS WELL. THE EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST LOW LEVELS
BUT ONLY UP TO ABOUT 3K FT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS NOW SHOWING UP ON KAMX RADAR OFF THE
UPPER KEYS, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER @NWSMIAMI

&&
GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KAPF WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR BUT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMA WILL EXCEED 80F AND MINIMA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG PRODUCTION EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA...BUT
HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

WITH PERSISTENT ESE WINDS...ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL BE PRONE TO RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION. THE
FEATURE WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND
OVERALL...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WATERS
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY...BEFORE STALLING
OUT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  71  81 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  81 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            71  85  71  83 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           67  84  68  81 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 040520 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1220 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.AVIATION...
THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES
WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILINGS AND VIS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS THAT KAPF AND KTMB COULD FALL INTO THE MVFR CONDITIONS
BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z TODAY DUE TO FOG FORMATION OVER THE TAF SITES.

THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE WINDS WILL BE
EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE INCREASING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS THIS MORNING. THE KAPF WINDS WILL THEN BECOME
SOUTHERLY AROUND 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 805 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...A TRANQUIL, WARM EVENING PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER A VERY WARM EARLY MARCH DAY. NAPLES WAS JUST 1F-DEGREE SHY
OF TYING THE RECORD HIGH...REACHING 87F TODAY. IT WAS IN THE LOWER
80S ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES AS WELL. THE EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST LOW LEVELS
BUT ONLY UP TO ABOUT 3K FT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS NOW SHOWING UP ON KAMX RADAR OFF THE
UPPER KEYS, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER @NWSMIAMI

&&
GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KAPF WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR BUT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMA WILL EXCEED 80F AND MINIMA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG PRODUCTION EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA...BUT
HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

WITH PERSISTENT ESE WINDS...ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL BE PRONE TO RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION. THE
FEATURE WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND
OVERALL...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WATERS
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY...BEFORE STALLING
OUT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  85  71  81 /   0   0  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  83  72  81 /   0   0  10  20
MIAMI            71  85  71  83 /   0   0  10  20
NAPLES           67  84  68  81 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 040105
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
805 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...A TRANQUIL, WARM EVENING PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER A VERY WARM EARLY MARCH DAY. NAPLES WAS JUST 1F-DEGREE SHY
OF TYING THE RECORD HIGH...REACHING 87F TODAY. IT WAS IN THE LOWER
80S ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES AS WELL. THE EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST LOW LEVELS
BUT ONLY UP TO ABOUT 3K FT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS NOW SHOWING UP ON KAMX RADAR OFF THE
UPPER KEYS, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER @NWSMIAMI

/GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KAPF WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR BUT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMA WILL EXCEED 80F AND MINIMA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG PRODUCTION EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA...BUT
HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

WITH PERSISTENT ESE WINDS...ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL BE PRONE TO RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION. THE
FEATURE WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND
OVERALL...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WATERS
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY...BEFORE STALLING
OUT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  84  72  85 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  82  73  83 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            72  84  71  85 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           66  85  67  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 040105
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
805 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...A TRANQUIL, WARM EVENING PREVAILS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
AFTER A VERY WARM EARLY MARCH DAY. NAPLES WAS JUST 1F-DEGREE SHY
OF TYING THE RECORD HIGH...REACHING 87F TODAY. IT WAS IN THE LOWER
80S ALONG THE EAST COAST. A WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS RIDGING DOMINATES OUR WEATHER. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES AS WELL. THE EVENING SOUNDING SHOWS A MOIST LOW LEVELS
BUT ONLY UP TO ABOUT 3K FT. THUS HAVE MAINTAINED THE DRY FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS NOW SHOWING UP ON KAMX RADAR OFF THE
UPPER KEYS, BUT THEY SHOULD STAY JUST TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

FOLLOW US ON TWITTER @NWSMIAMI

/GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KAPF WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR BUT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMA WILL EXCEED 80F AND MINIMA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG PRODUCTION EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA...BUT
HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

WITH PERSISTENT ESE WINDS...ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL BE PRONE TO RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION. THE
FEATURE WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND
OVERALL...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WATERS
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY...BEFORE STALLING
OUT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  84  72  85 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  82  73  83 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            72  84  71  85 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           66  85  67  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 040029
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KAPF WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR BUT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMA WILL EXCEED 80F AND MINIMA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG PRODUCTION EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA...BUT
HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

WITH PERSISTENT ESE WINDS...ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL BE PRONE TO RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION. THE
FEATURE WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND
OVERALL...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WATERS
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY...BEFORE STALLING
OUT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  84  72  85 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  82  73  83 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            72  84  71  85 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           66  85  67  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 040029
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KAPF WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR BUT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMA WILL EXCEED 80F AND MINIMA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG PRODUCTION EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA...BUT
HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

WITH PERSISTENT ESE WINDS...ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL BE PRONE TO RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION. THE
FEATURE WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND
OVERALL...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WATERS
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY...BEFORE STALLING
OUT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  84  72  85 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  82  73  83 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            72  84  71  85 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           66  85  67  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 040029
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS MOST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT...AND
THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING. WITH THE SHALLOW
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KAPF WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR BUT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMA WILL EXCEED 80F AND MINIMA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG PRODUCTION EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA...BUT
HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

WITH PERSISTENT ESE WINDS...ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL BE PRONE TO RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION. THE
FEATURE WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND
OVERALL...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WATERS
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY...BEFORE STALLING
OUT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  84  72  85 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  82  73  83 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            72  84  71  85 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           66  85  67  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 031956
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR BUT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMA WILL EXCEED 80F AND MINIMA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG PRODUCTION EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA...BUT
HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

WITH PERSISTENT ESE WINDS...ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL BE PRONE TO RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION. THE
FEATURE WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND
OVERALL...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

&&

.MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WATERS
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY...BEFORE STALLING
OUT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  84  72  85 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  82  73  83 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            72  84  71  85 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           66  85  67  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 031956
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR BUT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMA WILL EXCEED 80F AND MINIMA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG PRODUCTION EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA...BUT
HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

WITH PERSISTENT ESE WINDS...ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL BE PRONE TO RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION. THE
FEATURE WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND
OVERALL...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

&&

.MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WATERS
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY...BEFORE STALLING
OUT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  84  72  85 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  82  73  83 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            72  84  71  85 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           66  85  67  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 031956
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN DOMINANT MUCH OF THE WEEK...BRINGING DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL
STALL OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
COOL AIR BUT PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL RESIDE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM...KEEPING EASTERLY WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES IN PLACE
TO THE SOUTH. MAXIMA WILL EXCEED 80F AND MINIMA WILL RANGE FROM
MID 60S TO MID 70S...SOME 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY
MARCH. LIGHT WIND...MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...AND NEARLY SATURATED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG PRODUCTION EACH LATE
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING...MAINLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. BY THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NORTH FLORIDA...BUT
HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.

WITH PERSISTENT ESE WINDS...ATLANTIC BEACHES WILL BE PRONE TO RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
FRIDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENTERS THE REGION. THE
FEATURE WILL THEN STALL OVERHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST
MOISTURE AND BEST CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA...BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
HERE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOONS. LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF COOLER AIR WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE...AND
OVERALL...SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN SOUTHWESTERLY MID- AND
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

&&

.MARINE...
EAST AND SOUTHEAST WINDS 15 KNOTS OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE WATERS
FRIDAY...BRINGING SOME NORTHERLY WINDS BRIEFLY...BEFORE STALLING
OUT OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT. NORTHEASTERLY SWELL WILL INCREASE FRIDAY/SATURDAY IN THE
ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY FOR WATERS OFF PALM BEACH COUNTY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  84  72  85 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  82  73  83 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            72  84  71  85 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           66  85  67  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 031739
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1239 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES
TO NEAR 0...AND TO HAVE HOURLY GRIDS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES MAINLY VFR AND STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR TERMINAL KAPF EARLY THIS MORNING THERE MAY BE FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE
ANY IMPACT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL AMEND IF
NECESSARY FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF COAST
STATES. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS AND EXHIBIT DRY
PROFILES ABOVE A SHALLOW/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM WATERS AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST, THIS DRY MID/UPPER
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
TEMPERATURES, LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MIXING. ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EWD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THEN BEGINS TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE PROJECTED, MOIST EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING A GULF
LOW DEVELOPING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS A RESULT,
ONLY MINOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
MADE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.


MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.

INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO HAZARDOUS
RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LATER PACKAGES MAY REQUIRE HIGH RISK HEADLINES IF
CONDITIONS EVOLVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  73  86 /   0  10   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  84  72  83 /   0  10   0  10
MIAMI            71  84  72  86 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           66  85  66  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 031739
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1239 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES
TO NEAR 0...AND TO HAVE HOURLY GRIDS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES MAINLY VFR AND STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR TERMINAL KAPF EARLY THIS MORNING THERE MAY BE FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE
ANY IMPACT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL AMEND IF
NECESSARY FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF COAST
STATES. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS AND EXHIBIT DRY
PROFILES ABOVE A SHALLOW/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM WATERS AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST, THIS DRY MID/UPPER
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
TEMPERATURES, LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MIXING. ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EWD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THEN BEGINS TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE PROJECTED, MOIST EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING A GULF
LOW DEVELOPING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS A RESULT,
ONLY MINOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
MADE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.


MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.

INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO HAZARDOUS
RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LATER PACKAGES MAY REQUIRE HIGH RISK HEADLINES IF
CONDITIONS EVOLVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  73  86 /   0  10   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  84  72  83 /   0  10   0  10
MIAMI            71  84  72  86 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           66  85  66  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 031739
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1239 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AND MODERATE EASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ACROSS ALL SOUTH FLORIDA TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND INTERIOR
PARTS OF THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH TERMINAL KAPF
POSSIBLY HAVING BRIEF PERIODS OF FOG ALTHOUGH VFR CONDITIONS
MAINTAINED IN TAF.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

UPDATE...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES
TO NEAR 0...AND TO HAVE HOURLY GRIDS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES MAINLY VFR AND STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR TERMINAL KAPF EARLY THIS MORNING THERE MAY BE FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE
ANY IMPACT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL AMEND IF
NECESSARY FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF COAST
STATES. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS AND EXHIBIT DRY
PROFILES ABOVE A SHALLOW/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM WATERS AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST, THIS DRY MID/UPPER
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
TEMPERATURES, LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MIXING. ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EWD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THEN BEGINS TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE PROJECTED, MOIST EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING A GULF
LOW DEVELOPING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS A RESULT,
ONLY MINOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
MADE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.


MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.

INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO HAZARDOUS
RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LATER PACKAGES MAY REQUIRE HIGH RISK HEADLINES IF
CONDITIONS EVOLVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  73  86 /   0  10   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  72  84  72  83 /   0  10   0  10
MIAMI            71  84  72  86 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           66  85  66  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 031426
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
926 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES
TO NEAR 0...AND TO HAVE HOURLY GRIDS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES MAINLY VFR AND STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR TERMINAL KAPF EARLY THIS MORNING THERE MAY BE FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE
ANY IMPACT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL AMEND IF
NECESSARY FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF COAST
STATES. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS AND EXHIBIT DRY
PROFILES ABOVE A SHALLOW/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM WATERS AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST, THIS DRY MID/UPPER
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
TEMPERATURES, LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MIXING. ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EWD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THEN BEGINS TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE PROJECTED, MOIST EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING A GULF
LOW DEVELOPING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS A RESULT,
ONLY MINOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
MADE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.


MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.

INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO HAZARDOUS
RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LATER PACKAGES MAY REQUIRE HIGH RISK HEADLINES IF
CONDITIONS EVOLVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  71  84  73 /   0   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  72  84  72 /   0   0  10   0
MIAMI            82  71  84  72 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           85  66  85  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 031426
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
926 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES
TO NEAR 0...AND TO HAVE HOURLY GRIDS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES MAINLY VFR AND STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR TERMINAL KAPF EARLY THIS MORNING THERE MAY BE FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE
ANY IMPACT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL AMEND IF
NECESSARY FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF COAST
STATES. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS AND EXHIBIT DRY
PROFILES ABOVE A SHALLOW/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM WATERS AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST, THIS DRY MID/UPPER
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
TEMPERATURES, LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MIXING. ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EWD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THEN BEGINS TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE PROJECTED, MOIST EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING A GULF
LOW DEVELOPING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS A RESULT,
ONLY MINOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
MADE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.


MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.

INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO HAZARDOUS
RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LATER PACKAGES MAY REQUIRE HIGH RISK HEADLINES IF
CONDITIONS EVOLVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  71  84  73 /   0   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  72  84  72 /   0   0  10   0
MIAMI            82  71  84  72 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           85  66  85  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 031426
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
926 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES
TO NEAR 0...AND TO HAVE HOURLY GRIDS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES MAINLY VFR AND STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR TERMINAL KAPF EARLY THIS MORNING THERE MAY BE FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE
ANY IMPACT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL AMEND IF
NECESSARY FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF COAST
STATES. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS AND EXHIBIT DRY
PROFILES ABOVE A SHALLOW/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM WATERS AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST, THIS DRY MID/UPPER
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
TEMPERATURES, LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MIXING. ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EWD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THEN BEGINS TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE PROJECTED, MOIST EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING A GULF
LOW DEVELOPING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS A RESULT,
ONLY MINOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
MADE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.


MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.

INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO HAZARDOUS
RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LATER PACKAGES MAY REQUIRE HIGH RISK HEADLINES IF
CONDITIONS EVOLVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  71  84  73 /   0   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  72  84  72 /   0   0  10   0
MIAMI            82  71  84  72 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           85  66  85  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 031426
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
926 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ONLY
ADJUSTMENT TO FORECAST THIS MORNING WAS TO DIMINISH RAIN CHANCES
TO NEAR 0...AND TO HAVE HOURLY GRIDS REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 659 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES MAINLY VFR AND STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR TERMINAL KAPF EARLY THIS MORNING THERE MAY BE FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE
ANY IMPACT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL AMEND IF
NECESSARY FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF COAST
STATES. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS AND EXHIBIT DRY
PROFILES ABOVE A SHALLOW/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM WATERS AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST, THIS DRY MID/UPPER
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
TEMPERATURES, LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MIXING. ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EWD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THEN BEGINS TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE PROJECTED, MOIST EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING A GULF
LOW DEVELOPING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS A RESULT,
ONLY MINOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
MADE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.


MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.

INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO HAZARDOUS
RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LATER PACKAGES MAY REQUIRE HIGH RISK HEADLINES IF
CONDITIONS EVOLVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  71  84  73 /   0   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  72  84  72 /   0   0  10   0
MIAMI            82  71  84  72 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           85  66  85  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 031159
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
659 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES MAINLY VFR AND STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR TERMINAL KAPF EARLY THIS MORNING THERE MAY BE FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE
ANY IMPACT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL AMEND IF
NECESSARY FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF COAST
STATES. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS AND EXHIBIT DRY
PROFILES ABOVE A SHALLOW/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM WATERS AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST, THIS DRY MID/UPPER
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
TEMPERATURES, LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MIXING. ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EWD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THEN BEGINS TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE PROJECTED, MOIST EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING A GULF
LOW DEVELOPING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS A RESULT,
ONLY MINOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
MADE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.


MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.

INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO HAZARDOUS
RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LATER PACKAGES MAY REQUIRE HIGH RISK HEADLINES IF
CONDITIONS EVOLVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  71  84  73 /  10   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  72  84  72 /  10   0  10   0
MIAMI            82  71  84  72 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           85  66  85  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 031159
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
659 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...

FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES MAINLY VFR AND STABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR TERMINAL KAPF EARLY THIS MORNING THERE MAY BE FOG IN THE
VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL BUT SO FAR OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE
ANY IMPACT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AND EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WILL AMEND IF
NECESSARY FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF COAST
STATES. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS AND EXHIBIT DRY
PROFILES ABOVE A SHALLOW/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM WATERS AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST, THIS DRY MID/UPPER
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
TEMPERATURES, LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MIXING. ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EWD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.

LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THEN BEGINS TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE PROJECTED, MOIST EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING A GULF
LOW DEVELOPING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS A RESULT,
ONLY MINOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
MADE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.


MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.

INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO HAZARDOUS
RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LATER PACKAGES MAY REQUIRE HIGH RISK HEADLINES IF
CONDITIONS EVOLVE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  71  84  73 /  10   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  72  84  72 /  10   0  10   0
MIAMI            82  71  84  72 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           85  66  85  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 030904
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-THURSDAY)

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD AND INDICATES THE DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. THE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING WEST ACROSS THE REGION NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EWD OVER THE ATLANTIC AND A RIDGE AXIS SETS UP FROM
EAST TO WEST ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FLORIDA AND THE NRN GULF COAST
STATES. PLENTY OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED AS UPPER HEIGHTS
RISE ACROSS THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS AND EXHIBIT DRY
PROFILES ABOVE A SHALLOW/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
BRIEF SHOWERS REMAINING POSSIBLE DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAHAMAS ACROSS
THE GULF STREAM WATERS AND THE SE FLORIDA COAST, THIS DRY MID/UPPER
AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
AVERAGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOWER 80S
ALONG THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 60S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE EAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO THE
TEMPERATURES, LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG CHANCES SHOULD TREND DOWN
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND
MIXING. ON THURSDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EWD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD THEN BEGINS TO SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A WEAKENING COLD FRONT STALLED ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. ALTHOUGH LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE PROJECTED, MOIST EASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DIMINISH LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING A GULF
LOW DEVELOPING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AS A RESULT,
ONLY MINOR DEVIATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE
MADE THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MID-WEEK PERIOD. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK.
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE AREA.

INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY TRANSLATE TO HAZARDOUS
RIP CURRENTS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY. LATER PACKAGES MAY REQUIRE HIGH RISK HEADLINES IF
CONDITIONS EVOLVE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  71  84  73 /  10   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  72  84  72 /  10   0  10   0
MIAMI            82  71  84  72 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           85  66  85  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 030523
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1223 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.AVIATION...
REDUCED VSBYS DUE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
DAYBREAK TODAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST REGIONS.
THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE (OBE) HAVE ALREADY
DROPPED TO 1/4 OF A MILE. THE SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS
THIS AND SHOWS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES OF REDUCED VSBYS FROM
APF TO THE LAKE THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING. ALTHOUGH MVFR LEVEL
VSBYS WILL REMAIN IN THIS PACKAGE FOR APF, AMMENDMENTS MAY BE
REQUIRED AS CONDITIONS EVOLVE. ELSEWHERE, VFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS WILL REMAIN
OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WILL INCREASE
INTO THE MODERATE RANGE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
PERIODS TODAY.

/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 903 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/

UPDATE...A FEW LONE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...NOW MOVING ONSHORE AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BROWARD
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO MOVE ONSHORE THE MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY COAST. AS SUCH, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THESE AREAS. PW ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS ONLY AT 0.95
INCHES, SO NOT MUCH MOISTURE...BUT JUST ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ON THE ENE WIND FLOW. ASIDE FROM
THIS, A TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
/GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAPF LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ENE WINDS
5-10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AND ESE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS MAINTAINING A LOCALLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST OF THE LAKE WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FORECAST.
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SOMETIME EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STAY NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND NAPLES
METRO AREAS COULD REACH NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS
PERIOD. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH
MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER A FEW
DEGREES AS THE REGIONAL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.

FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS
IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  70  83  72 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  72  80  73 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            82  70  82  72 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           83  65  83  66 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 030203
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
903 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW LONE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...NOW MOVING ONSHORE AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BROWARD
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO MOVE ONSHORE THE MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY COAST. AS SUCH, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THESE AREAS. PW ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS ONLY AT 0.95
INCHES, SO NOT MUCH MOISTURE...BUT JUST ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ON THE ENE WIND FLOW. ASIDE FROM
THIS, A TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
/GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAPF LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ENE WINDS
5-10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AND ESE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS MAINTAINING A LOCALLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST OF THE LAKE WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FORECAST.
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SOMETIME EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STAY NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND NAPLES
METRO AREAS COULD REACH NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS
PERIOD. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH
MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER A FEW
DEGREES AS THE REGIONAL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.

FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS
IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  82  70  83 /  10  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  79  72  80 /  20  10   0   0
MIAMI            69  82  70  82 /  20  10   0   0
NAPLES           65  83  65  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 030203
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
903 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...A FEW LONE SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...NOW MOVING ONSHORE AND AFFECTING PORTIONS OF BROWARD
COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS COULD ALSO MOVE ONSHORE THE MIAMI-DADE
COUNTY COAST. AS SUCH, HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO
THESE AREAS. PW ON THE MIAMI SOUNDING IS ONLY AT 0.95
INCHES, SO NOT MUCH MOISTURE...BUT JUST ENOUGH IN THE LOWER LEVELS
TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW SHOWERS ON THE ENE WIND FLOW. ASIDE FROM
THIS, A TRANQUIL NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.
/GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAPF LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ENE WINDS
5-10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AND ESE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS MAINTAINING A LOCALLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST OF THE LAKE WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FORECAST.
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SOMETIME EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STAY NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND NAPLES
METRO AREAS COULD REACH NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS
PERIOD. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH
MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER A FEW
DEGREES AS THE REGIONAL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.

FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS
IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  82  70  83 /  10  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  79  72  80 /  20  10   0   0
MIAMI            69  82  70  82 /  20  10   0   0
NAPLES           65  83  65  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 022339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAPF LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ENE WINDS
5-10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AND ESE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS MAINTAINING A LOCALLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST OF THE LAKE WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FORECAST.
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SOMETIME EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STAY NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND NAPLES
METRO AREAS COULD REACH NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS
PERIOD. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH
MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER A FEW
DEGREES AS THE REGIONAL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.

FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS
IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  82  70  83 /  10  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  79  72  80 /   0  10   0   0
MIAMI            69  82  70  82 /   0  10   0   0
NAPLES           65  83  65  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 022339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAPF LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ENE WINDS
5-10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AND ESE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS MAINTAINING A LOCALLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST OF THE LAKE WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FORECAST.
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SOMETIME EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STAY NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND NAPLES
METRO AREAS COULD REACH NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS
PERIOD. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH
MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER A FEW
DEGREES AS THE REGIONAL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.

FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS
IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  82  70  83 /  10  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  79  72  80 /   0  10   0   0
MIAMI            69  82  70  82 /   0  10   0   0
NAPLES           65  83  65  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 022339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAPF LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ENE WINDS
5-10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AND ESE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS MAINTAINING A LOCALLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST OF THE LAKE WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FORECAST.
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SOMETIME EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STAY NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND NAPLES
METRO AREAS COULD REACH NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS
PERIOD. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH
MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER A FEW
DEGREES AS THE REGIONAL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.

FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS
IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  82  70  83 /  10  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  79  72  80 /   0  10   0   0
MIAMI            69  82  70  82 /   0  10   0   0
NAPLES           65  83  65  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 022339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
639 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOG AND/OR LOW
CIGS POSSIBLE AT KAPF LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. ENE WINDS
5-10 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OR LESS LATE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY AND ESE WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A STATIONARY
FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS MAINTAINING A LOCALLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

FOG IS EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR
AND WEST OF THE LAKE WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FORECAST.
IF CONDITIONS WARRANT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
SOMETIME EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO STAY NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND STABLE
WEATHER CONDITIONS PREVAILING. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION WITH UNSEASONABLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
PREVAILING. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC AND NAPLES
METRO AREAS COULD REACH NEAR 80 TO THE LOWER 80S DURING THIS
PERIOD. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY WITH
MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO INCREASE FURTHER A FEW
DEGREES AS THE REGIONAL WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.

FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
IS FORECAST AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT
WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT ENTERING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS SCENARIO DEVELOPS
IN THE GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIA
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVELS IN PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS IN THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE
LATE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  82  70  83 /  10  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  70  79  72  80 /   0  10   0   0
MIAMI            69  82  70  82 /   0  10   0   0
NAPLES           65  83  65  83 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...84/AK





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities