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000
FXUS62 KMFL 280556
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
156 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. SW-W LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER AND THIS WILL DELAY THE SEA BREEZE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
EAST COAST WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME S-SE. TSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ONLY ISOLATED-SCATTERED WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR
KPBI, SO WILL ONLY KEEP VCTS FOR THIS TAF AND KEEP TS MENTION OUT
OF THE REST OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEREFORE REMOVED
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. UPDATE SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE BROWARD/DADE TERMINALS AND SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL NEAR CALM
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THEN INCREASE OUT
OF THE WSW THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...LIGHT SSE
WINDS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
BEGINS TO PENETRATE INLAND. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS LINING UP WITH THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE SEA
BREEZE...AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MIDWAY THROUGH
PALM BEACH/HENDRY/GLADES COUNTIES...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
GREATEST MOISTURE POOLED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES/LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH. SO EXPECTING EITHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...OR INTERACTION BETWEEN
OUTFLOWS INLAND AS THEY MOVE EAST. FURTHER SOUTH INTO BROWARD
MIAMI DADE...CAN`T RULE OUT STORMS BUT AT THIS POINT ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST LATE DAY. DRIER
AIR HAS MADE BETTER PROGRESS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE REGION.
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NAPLES EARLIER MAY END ACTIVITY THERE FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. WITH FLOW VEERED FURTHER TONIGHT...PERHAPS THERE
WILL EVEN BE LESS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF WATERS. INTO MONDAY...PWATS
DROP EVEN FURTHER AND MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE LEAST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE
STARTS TO RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AS A BOUNDARY ENTERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THUS...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER....WITH ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW TO SUPPRESS THE SEA BREEZE AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO LATE DAY STORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...PERHAPS ONLY TO BROWARD COUNTY. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
IF ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURNS TUESDAY TO ALLOW MORE NUMEROUS STORMS
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PALM BEACH COUNTY. BOUNDARY THEN SLOWS AND
PERHAPS STALLS THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  79  91 /  20  40  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  80  91 /  10  30  30  50
MIAMI            80  92  80  91 /  10  30  20  40
NAPLES           76  93  78  91 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 280556
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
156 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. SW-W LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE
STRONGER AND THIS WILL DELAY THE SEA BREEZE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON
EAST COAST WITH WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME S-SE. TSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BE ONLY ISOLATED-SCATTERED WITH THE BEST CHANCE NEAR
KPBI, SO WILL ONLY KEEP VCTS FOR THIS TAF AND KEEP TS MENTION OUT
OF THE REST OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 917 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEREFORE REMOVED
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. UPDATE SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE BROWARD/DADE TERMINALS AND SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL NEAR CALM
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THEN INCREASE OUT
OF THE WSW THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...LIGHT SSE
WINDS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
BEGINS TO PENETRATE INLAND. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS LINING UP WITH THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE SEA
BREEZE...AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MIDWAY THROUGH
PALM BEACH/HENDRY/GLADES COUNTIES...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
GREATEST MOISTURE POOLED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES/LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH. SO EXPECTING EITHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...OR INTERACTION BETWEEN
OUTFLOWS INLAND AS THEY MOVE EAST. FURTHER SOUTH INTO BROWARD
MIAMI DADE...CAN`T RULE OUT STORMS BUT AT THIS POINT ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST LATE DAY. DRIER
AIR HAS MADE BETTER PROGRESS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE REGION.
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NAPLES EARLIER MAY END ACTIVITY THERE FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. WITH FLOW VEERED FURTHER TONIGHT...PERHAPS THERE
WILL EVEN BE LESS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF WATERS. INTO MONDAY...PWATS
DROP EVEN FURTHER AND MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE LEAST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE
STARTS TO RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AS A BOUNDARY ENTERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THUS...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER....WITH ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW TO SUPPRESS THE SEA BREEZE AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO LATE DAY STORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...PERHAPS ONLY TO BROWARD COUNTY. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
IF ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURNS TUESDAY TO ALLOW MORE NUMEROUS STORMS
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PALM BEACH COUNTY. BOUNDARY THEN SLOWS AND
PERHAPS STALLS THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  79  91 /  20  40  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  93  80  91 /  10  30  30  50
MIAMI            80  92  80  91 /  10  30  20  40
NAPLES           76  93  78  91 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280117
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
917 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEREFORE REMOVED
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. UPDATE SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE BROWARD/DADE TERMINALS AND SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL NEAR CALM
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THEN INCREASE OUT
OF THE WSW THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...LIGHT SSE
WINDS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
BEGINS TO PENETRATE INLAND. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS LINING UP WITH THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE SEA
BREEZE...AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MIDWAY THROUGH
PALM BEACH/HENDRY/GLADES COUNTIES...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
GREATEST MOISTURE POOLED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES/LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH. SO EXPECTING EITHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...OR INTERACTION BETWEEN
OUTFLOWS INLAND AS THEY MOVE EAST. FURTHER SOUTH INTO BROWARD
MIAMI DADE...CAN`T RULE OUT STORMS BUT AT THIS POINT ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST LATE DAY. DRIER
AIR HAS MADE BETTER PROGRESS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE REGION.
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NAPLES EARLIER MAY END ACTIVITY THERE FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. WITH FLOW VEERED FURTHER TONIGHT...PERHAPS THERE
WILL EVEN BE LESS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF WATERS. INTO MONDAY...PWATS
DROP EVEN FURTHER AND MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE LEAST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE
STARTS TO RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AS A BOUNDARY ENTERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THUS...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER....WITH ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW TO SUPPRESS THE SEA BREEZE AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO LATE DAY STORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...PERHAPS ONLY TO BROWARD COUNTY. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
IF ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURNS TUESDAY TO ALLOW MORE NUMEROUS STORMS
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PALM BEACH COUNTY. BOUNDARY THEN SLOWS AND
PERHAPS STALLS THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  92  77  92 /  10  30  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  93  80  93 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            80  93  80  92 /  10  30  10  30
NAPLES           77  90  76  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...85/AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 280117
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
917 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS ARE COMING TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING GIVING
WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THEREFORE REMOVED
POPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
NIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. UPDATE SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 811 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE BROWARD/DADE TERMINALS AND SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL NEAR CALM
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THEN INCREASE OUT
OF THE WSW THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...LIGHT SSE
WINDS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
BEGINS TO PENETRATE INLAND. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS LINING UP WITH THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE SEA
BREEZE...AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MIDWAY THROUGH
PALM BEACH/HENDRY/GLADES COUNTIES...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
GREATEST MOISTURE POOLED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES/LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH. SO EXPECTING EITHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...OR INTERACTION BETWEEN
OUTFLOWS INLAND AS THEY MOVE EAST. FURTHER SOUTH INTO BROWARD
MIAMI DADE...CAN`T RULE OUT STORMS BUT AT THIS POINT ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST LATE DAY. DRIER
AIR HAS MADE BETTER PROGRESS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE REGION.
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NAPLES EARLIER MAY END ACTIVITY THERE FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. WITH FLOW VEERED FURTHER TONIGHT...PERHAPS THERE
WILL EVEN BE LESS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF WATERS. INTO MONDAY...PWATS
DROP EVEN FURTHER AND MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE LEAST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE
STARTS TO RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AS A BOUNDARY ENTERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THUS...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER....WITH ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW TO SUPPRESS THE SEA BREEZE AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO LATE DAY STORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...PERHAPS ONLY TO BROWARD COUNTY. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
IF ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURNS TUESDAY TO ALLOW MORE NUMEROUS STORMS
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PALM BEACH COUNTY. BOUNDARY THEN SLOWS AND
PERHAPS STALLS THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  92  77  92 /  10  30  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  93  80  93 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            80  93  80  92 /  10  30  10  30
NAPLES           77  90  76  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280011
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
811 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE BROWARD/DADE TERMINALS AND SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL NEAR CALM
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THEN INCREASE OUT
OF THE WSW THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...LIGHT SSE
WINDS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
BEGINS TO PENETRATE INLAND. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS LINING UP WITH THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE SEA
BREEZE...AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MIDWAY THROUGH
PALM BEACH/HENDRY/GLADES COUNTIES...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
GREATEST MOISTURE POOLED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES/LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH. SO EXPECTING EITHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...OR INTERACTION BETWEEN
OUTFLOWS INLAND AS THEY MOVE EAST. FURTHER SOUTH INTO BROWARD
MIAMI DADE...CAN`T RULE OUT STORMS BUT AT THIS POINT ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST LATE DAY. DRIER
AIR HAS MADE BETTER PROGRESS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE REGION.
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NAPLES EARLIER MAY END ACTIVITY THERE FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. WITH FLOW VEERED FURTHER TONIGHT...PERHAPS THERE
WILL EVEN BE LESS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF WATERS. INTO MONDAY...PWATS
DROP EVEN FURTHER AND MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE LEAST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE
STARTS TO RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AS A BOUNDARY ENTERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THUS...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER....WITH ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW TO SUPPRESS THE SEA BREEZE AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO LATE DAY STORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...PERHAPS ONLY TO BROWARD COUNTY. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
IF ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURNS TUESDAY TO ALLOW MORE NUMEROUS STORMS
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PALM BEACH COUNTY. BOUNDARY THEN SLOWS AND
PERHAPS STALLS THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...

EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY
AND NEAR KPBI. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON CONVECTION FORMING
FURTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY MIAMI-DADE. SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AFTER
20Z FOR MIAMI-DADE TAFS. EARLIER RAINFALL AT KAPF HAS DISRUPTED
THE SEA BREEZE...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND THE FORECAST IS FOR NO PRECIP ON MONDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  92  77  92 /  10  30  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  93  80  93 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            80  93  80  92 /  10  30  10  30
NAPLES           77  90  76  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280011
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
811 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
THE SHOWERS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE BROWARD/DADE TERMINALS AND SHOULD
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID-EVENING HOURS. WINDS WILL NEAR CALM
LEVELS ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, THEN INCREASE OUT
OF THE WSW THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY...LIGHT SSE
WINDS WILL BECOME POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
BEGINS TO PENETRATE INLAND. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS LINING UP WITH THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE SEA
BREEZE...AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MIDWAY THROUGH
PALM BEACH/HENDRY/GLADES COUNTIES...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
GREATEST MOISTURE POOLED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES/LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH. SO EXPECTING EITHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...OR INTERACTION BETWEEN
OUTFLOWS INLAND AS THEY MOVE EAST. FURTHER SOUTH INTO BROWARD
MIAMI DADE...CAN`T RULE OUT STORMS BUT AT THIS POINT ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST LATE DAY. DRIER
AIR HAS MADE BETTER PROGRESS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE REGION.
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NAPLES EARLIER MAY END ACTIVITY THERE FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. WITH FLOW VEERED FURTHER TONIGHT...PERHAPS THERE
WILL EVEN BE LESS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF WATERS. INTO MONDAY...PWATS
DROP EVEN FURTHER AND MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE LEAST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE
STARTS TO RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AS A BOUNDARY ENTERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THUS...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER....WITH ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW TO SUPPRESS THE SEA BREEZE AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO LATE DAY STORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...PERHAPS ONLY TO BROWARD COUNTY. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
IF ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURNS TUESDAY TO ALLOW MORE NUMEROUS STORMS
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PALM BEACH COUNTY. BOUNDARY THEN SLOWS AND
PERHAPS STALLS THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

AVIATION...

EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY
AND NEAR KPBI. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON CONVECTION FORMING
FURTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY MIAMI-DADE. SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AFTER
20Z FOR MIAMI-DADE TAFS. EARLIER RAINFALL AT KAPF HAS DISRUPTED
THE SEA BREEZE...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND THE FORECAST IS FOR NO PRECIP ON MONDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  92  77  92 /  10  30  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  93  80  93 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            80  93  80  92 /  10  30  10  30
NAPLES           77  90  76  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 271811
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
211 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

CLOUDS LINING UP WITH THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE SEA
BREEZE...AND A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MIDWAY THROUGH
PALM BEACH/HENDRY/GLADES COUNTIES...WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. SPC MESOANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW
GREATEST MOISTURE POOLED THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES/LAKE REGION/PALM BEACH. SO EXPECTING EITHER DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COAST OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...OR INTERACTION BETWEEN
OUTFLOWS INLAND AS THEY MOVE EAST. FURTHER SOUTH INTO BROWARD
MIAMI DADE...CAN`T RULE OUT STORMS BUT AT THIS POINT ONLY
EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST LATE DAY. DRIER
AIR HAS MADE BETTER PROGRESS THROUGH THIS PART OF THE REGION.
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER NAPLES EARLIER MAY END ACTIVITY THERE FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. WITH FLOW VEERED FURTHER TONIGHT...PERHAPS THERE
WILL EVEN BE LESS ACTIVITY IN THE GULF WATERS. INTO MONDAY...PWATS
DROP EVEN FURTHER AND MAKE BETTER PROGRESS TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES. COULD POTENTIALLY BE THE LEAST ACTIVE IN TERMS OF
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. BY TUESDAY...MOISTURE
STARTS TO RETURN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AS A BOUNDARY ENTERS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. THUS...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER....WITH ENOUGH WESTERLY FLOW TO SUPPRESS THE SEA BREEZE AND
POSSIBLY LEAD TO LATE DAY STORMS ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...PERHAPS ONLY TO BROWARD COUNTY. STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
IF ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURNS TUESDAY TO ALLOW MORE NUMEROUS STORMS
FURTHER SOUTH THAN PALM BEACH COUNTY. BOUNDARY THEN SLOWS AND
PERHAPS STALLS THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY
AND NEAR KPBI. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON CONVECTION FORMING
FURTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY MIAMI-DADE. SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AFTER
20Z FOR MIAMI-DADE TAFS. EARLIER RAINFALL AT KAPF HAS DISRUPTED
THE SEA BREEZE...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND THE FORECAST IS FOR NO PRECIP ON MONDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  93  77  91 /  20  30  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  81  91 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            79  91  78  90 /  10  30  10  30
NAPLES           79  90  79  90 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271725
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY
AND NEAR KPBI. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON CONVECTION FORMING
FURTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY MIAMI-DADE. SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AFTER
20Z FOR MIAMI-DADE TAFS. EARLIER RAINFALL AT KAPF HAS DISRUPTED
THE SEA BREEZE...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND THE FORECAST IS FOR NO PRECIP ON MONDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOISTURE/PWATS FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE PENINSULA TO EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND PALM BEACH
MARINE ZONES. NASA SPORT IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS QUITE WELL. THIS
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A THETA E GRADIENT
TOO. THUS...DEPICTING HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE
REGION INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ALTHOUGH MORE WESTERLY FLOW THAN
YESTERDAY WOULD FAVOR GULF COAST...NUMEROUS STORMS WHICH OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY GREATLY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THERE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE SEEPING NORTHWARD TODAY...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT
CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY
MOVING OUTFLOWS EMANATING FROM INLAND ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN PLACE...STORMS THAT DEVELOP
RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...COULD POTENTIALLY
BE SLOW MOVING/VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO
THE REGION SOUTH OF THE COLLIER COUNTY LINE NORTHEAST TO THE
BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING...AND A SHOWER OR STORM
COULD GET NEAR KAPF THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTH
AND BISECT SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE THETA-E GRADIENT
ALONG THE BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. SO KEPT VCTS AT ALL THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. EVEN
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SWATH OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD STILL BE AROUND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. SO CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH
COULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE. PLUS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING NORTHWARD ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES.

THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS
EVIDENT IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE WIND PROFILE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS FAVORABLE WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.

THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOME DRIER
AIR NORTHWARD BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AND
WILL AGAIN FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY INDICATE THE SCENARIO
OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE LAKE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE EXPECTED IMPACTS THUS
FAR.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  93  77  91 /  20  30  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  81  91 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            79  91  78  90 /  10  30  10  30
NAPLES           79  90  79  90 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271725
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
125 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP...AND SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN DEVELOPING ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY
AND NEAR KPBI. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON CONVECTION FORMING
FURTHER SOUTH...ESPECIALLY MIAMI-DADE. SO ONLY INCLUDED VCSH AFTER
20Z FOR MIAMI-DADE TAFS. EARLIER RAINFALL AT KAPF HAS DISRUPTED
THE SEA BREEZE...AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. EVEN DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT...AND THE FORECAST IS FOR NO PRECIP ON MONDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1044 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOISTURE/PWATS FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE PENINSULA TO EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND PALM BEACH
MARINE ZONES. NASA SPORT IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS QUITE WELL. THIS
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A THETA E GRADIENT
TOO. THUS...DEPICTING HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE
REGION INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ALTHOUGH MORE WESTERLY FLOW THAN
YESTERDAY WOULD FAVOR GULF COAST...NUMEROUS STORMS WHICH OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY GREATLY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THERE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE SEEPING NORTHWARD TODAY...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT
CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY
MOVING OUTFLOWS EMANATING FROM INLAND ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN PLACE...STORMS THAT DEVELOP
RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...COULD POTENTIALLY
BE SLOW MOVING/VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO
THE REGION SOUTH OF THE COLLIER COUNTY LINE NORTHEAST TO THE
BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING...AND A SHOWER OR STORM
COULD GET NEAR KAPF THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTH
AND BISECT SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE THETA-E GRADIENT
ALONG THE BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. SO KEPT VCTS AT ALL THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. EVEN
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SWATH OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD STILL BE AROUND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. SO CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH
COULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE. PLUS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING NORTHWARD ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES.

THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS
EVIDENT IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE WIND PROFILE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS FAVORABLE WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.

THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOME DRIER
AIR NORTHWARD BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AND
WILL AGAIN FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY INDICATE THE SCENARIO
OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE LAKE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE EXPECTED IMPACTS THUS
FAR.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  93  77  91 /  20  30  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  81  91 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            79  91  78  90 /  10  30  10  30
NAPLES           79  90  79  90 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 271444
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1044 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOISTURE/PWATS FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE PENINSULA TO EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND PALM BEACH
MARINE ZONES. NASA SPORT IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS QUITE WELL. THIS
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A THETA E GRADIENT
TOO. THUS...DEPICTING HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE
REGION INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ALTHOUGH MORE WESTERLY FLOW THAN
YESTERDAY WOULD FAVOR GULF COAST...NUMEROUS STORMS WHICH OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY GREATLY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THERE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE SEEPING NORTHWARD TODAY...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT
CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY
MOVING OUTFLOWS EMANATING FROM INLAND ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN PLACE...STORMS THAT DEVELOP
RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...COULD POTENTIALLY
BE SLOW MOVING/VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO
THE REGION SOUTH OF THE COLLIER COUNTY LINE NORTHEAST TO THE
BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING...AND A SHOWER OR STORM
COULD GET NEAR KAPF THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTH
AND BISECT SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE THETA-E GRADIENT
ALONG THE BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. SO KEPT VCTS AT ALL THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. EVEN
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SWATH OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD STILL BE AROUND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. SO CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH
COULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE. PLUS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING NORTHWARD ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES.

THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS
EVIDENT IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE WIND PROFILE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS FAVORABLE WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.

THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOME DRIER
AIR NORTHWARD BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AND
WILL AGAIN FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY INDICATE THE SCENARIO
OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE LAKE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE EXPECTED IMPACTS THUS
FAR.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  93  77 /  40  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  80  91  81 /  30  10  20  10
MIAMI            90  79  91  78 /  20  10  30  10
NAPLES           90  79  90  79 /  80  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 271444
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1044 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MOISTURE/PWATS FROM THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF THE PENINSULA TO EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY AND PALM BEACH
MARINE ZONES. NASA SPORT IMAGERY DEPICTS THIS QUITE WELL. THIS
MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY IS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR A THETA E GRADIENT
TOO. THUS...DEPICTING HIGHEST POPS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LAKE
REGION INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY. ALTHOUGH MORE WESTERLY FLOW THAN
YESTERDAY WOULD FAVOR GULF COAST...NUMEROUS STORMS WHICH OCCURRED
EARLIER THIS MORNING MAY GREATLY LIMIT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
THERE FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR
WILL CONTINUE SEEPING NORTHWARD TODAY...CAN`T TOTALLY RULE OUT
CONVECTION ALONG THE EAST COAST...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EASTERLY
MOVING OUTFLOWS EMANATING FROM INLAND ACTIVITY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW IN PLACE...STORMS THAT DEVELOP
RIGHT ALONG THE BEACHES OF PALM BEACH COUNTY...COULD POTENTIALLY
BE SLOW MOVING/VERY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 734 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO
THE REGION SOUTH OF THE COLLIER COUNTY LINE NORTHEAST TO THE
BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING...AND A SHOWER OR STORM
COULD GET NEAR KAPF THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTH
AND BISECT SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE THETA-E GRADIENT
ALONG THE BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. SO KEPT VCTS AT ALL THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. EVEN
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SWATH OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD STILL BE AROUND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. SO CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH
COULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE. PLUS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING NORTHWARD ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES.

THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS
EVIDENT IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE WIND PROFILE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS FAVORABLE WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.

THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOME DRIER
AIR NORTHWARD BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AND
WILL AGAIN FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY INDICATE THE SCENARIO
OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE LAKE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE EXPECTED IMPACTS THUS
FAR.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  93  77 /  40  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  80  91  81 /  30  10  20  10
MIAMI            90  79  91  78 /  20  10  30  10
NAPLES           90  79  90  79 /  80  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271134
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
734 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO
THE REGION SOUTH OF THE COLLIER COUNTY LINE NORTHEAST TO THE
BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING...AND A SHOWER OR STORM
COULD GET NEAR KAPF THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTH
AND BISECT SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE THETA-E GRADIENT
ALONG THE BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. SO KEPT VCTS AT ALL THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. EVEN
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SWATH OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD STILL BE AROUND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. SO CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH
COULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE. PLUS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING NORTHWARD ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES.

THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS
EVIDENT IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE WIND PROFILE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS FAVORABLE WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.

THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOME DRIER
AIR NORTHWARD BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AND
WILL AGAIN FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY INDICATE THE SCENARIO
OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE LAKE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE EXPECTED IMPACTS THUS
FAR.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS  FORECAST TO
BE MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW A WIND FLOW WHICH WOULD STEER STORMS TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST, SO A FEW TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS AND AS SUCH HAVE ADDED VCTS THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY THOUGH. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE
EAST COAST TERMINALS AND SW AT KAPF AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  93  77 /  40  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  80  91  81 /  30  10  20  10
MIAMI            90  79  91  78 /  30  10  30  10
NAPLES           90  79  90  79 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271134
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
734 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO
THE REGION SOUTH OF THE COLLIER COUNTY LINE NORTHEAST TO THE
BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS MORNING...AND A SHOWER OR STORM
COULD GET NEAR KAPF THIS MORNING. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE NORTH
AND BISECT SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. WITH MORE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ANY
SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES. CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE THETA-E GRADIENT
ALONG THE BROWARD/PALM BEACH COUNTY LINE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING FURTHER SOUTH
ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OR SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IN THE MID
AFTERNOON. SO KEPT VCTS AT ALL THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. EVEN
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...AND VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 333 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A SWATH OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD STILL BE AROUND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. SO CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH
COULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE. PLUS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING NORTHWARD ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES.

THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS
EVIDENT IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE WIND PROFILE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS FAVORABLE WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.

THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOME DRIER
AIR NORTHWARD BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AND
WILL AGAIN FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY INDICATE THE SCENARIO
OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE LAKE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE EXPECTED IMPACTS THUS
FAR.

MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS  FORECAST TO
BE MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW A WIND FLOW WHICH WOULD STEER STORMS TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST, SO A FEW TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS AND AS SUCH HAVE ADDED VCTS THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY THOUGH. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE
EAST COAST TERMINALS AND SW AT KAPF AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  93  77 /  40  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  80  91  81 /  30  10  20  10
MIAMI            90  79  91  78 /  30  10  30  10
NAPLES           90  79  90  79 /  40  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 270733
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
333 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SWATH OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD STILL BE AROUND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. SO CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH
COULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE. PLUS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING NORTHWARD ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES.

THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS
EVIDENT IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE WIND PROFILE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS FAVORABLE WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.

THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOME DRIER
AIR NORTHWARD BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AND
WILL AGAIN FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY INDICATE THE SCENARIO
OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE LAKE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE EXPECTED IMPACTS THUS
FAR.



&&

.MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS  FORECAST TO
BE MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW A WIND FLOW WHICH WOULD STEER STORMS TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST, SO A FEW TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS AND AS SUCH HAVE ADDED VCTS THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY THOUGH. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE
EAST COAST TERMINALS AND SW AT KAPF AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  93  77 /  40  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  80  91  81 /  30  10  20  10
MIAMI            90  79  91  78 /  30  10  30  10
NAPLES           90  79  90  79 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 270733
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
333 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A SWATH OF DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND EXTENDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD TODAY. BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD STILL BE AROUND 1.6 INCHES ACROSS THE
REGION AND THE MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOUT THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE. SO CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION ACROSS
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE DRIER AIR TO THE SOUTH
COULD FAVOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE. PLUS WITH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS
ACROSS THE REGION THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD
FAVOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL ZONE WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING NORTHWARD ACROSS BROWARD AND PALM BEACH
COUNTIES.

THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF WATERSPOUTS ACROSS BOTH THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF WATERS TODAY...WITH LOW LEVEL CLOUD CONVERGENCE BANDS
EVIDENT IN THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE WIND PROFILE IN
THE LOWER LEVELS IS FAVORABLE WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED.

THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO PULL SOME DRIER
AIR NORTHWARD BUT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE PRESENT TO
ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOONS.
SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD AND
WILL AGAIN FAVOR SOME ACTIVITY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO CONSISTENTLY INDICATE THE SCENARIO
OF A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE LAKE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE EXPECTED IMPACTS THUS
FAR.



&&

.MARINE...

SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH REGIONAL SEAS
EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. MONDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY PERIODS OF SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR WILL PREVAIL. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS  FORECAST TO
BE MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS, THOUGH LATEST GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW A WIND FLOW WHICH WOULD STEER STORMS TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST, SO A FEW TSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS AND AS SUCH HAVE ADDED VCTS THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON.
DIRECT IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY THOUGH. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE
EAST COAST TERMINALS AND SW AT KAPF AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  93  77 /  40  20  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  80  91  81 /  30  10  20  10
MIAMI            90  79  91  78 /  30  10  30  10
NAPLES           90  79  90  79 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270537
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
137 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS
FORECAST TO BE MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS AND WITH THE
FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR, HAVE LEFT TS MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA IS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE EAST COAST TERMINALS AND SW
AT KAPF AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KT. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN GLADES COUNTY CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY
SEEN NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
THAT MAY TAKE PLACE. UPDATE SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

AVIATION...
THE BULK OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION REMAINED
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR LIFT NORTH
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE PALM BEACH AND LAKE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE
BEST RAINFALL CHANCES OVER AND AROUND PBI SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

STORMS NOW OVER DORAL/SWEETWATER WILL EXPAND EAST OVER THE NEXT
HOUR WITH EAST MOVING OUTFLOWS POTENTIALLY SPARKING CONVECTION
ALONG THE BEACHES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLOW IS WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS COULD CAUSE WATER PROBLEMS ALONG TYPICAL PROBLEM
ROADWAYS. SOME STORMS DID MOVE THROUGH KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI
BEACH...ALONG WITH FT LAUDERDALE EARLIER TODAY...THEREFORE
INSTABILITY MAY HAVE BEEN DAMPENED ENOUGH SUCH THAT THESE
OUTFLOWS HAVE LITTLE EFFECT. MUCH OF THE GULF COAST EXPERIENCED
NUMEROUS STORMS EARLIER TODAY...SO THEY MAY ALSO BE FINISHED WITH
REGARDS TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IMPRESSIVE CHUNK OF DRY AIR
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER
THAN CHANCE BOTH DAYS. EVEN THEN...CHANCE POPS WILL BE MOSTLY KEPT
THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH EVEN SMALLER POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WAS SQUEEZED SOUTH SLIGHTLY DUE TO A
WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US...WILL BUILD BACK NORTH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. PER MIA GFS MODEL
SOUNDING...PWATS ARE ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
INTO MONDAY.

MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  92  78  91 /  10  30  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  81  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIAMI            80  92  79  92 /  10  20  20  30
NAPLES           76  91  76  91 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270537
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
137 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY IS
FORECAST TO BE MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO RECENT DAYS AND WITH THE
FOCUS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR, HAVE LEFT TS MENTION OUT
OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME, THOUGH AN ISOLATED SHRA OR TSRA IS
POSSIBLE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE EAST COAST TERMINALS AND SW
AT KAPF AT SPEEDS OF 5-10 KT. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 851 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN GLADES COUNTY CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY
SEEN NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
THAT MAY TAKE PLACE. UPDATE SENT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

AVIATION...
THE BULK OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION REMAINED
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR LIFT NORTH
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE PALM BEACH AND LAKE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE
BEST RAINFALL CHANCES OVER AND AROUND PBI SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

STORMS NOW OVER DORAL/SWEETWATER WILL EXPAND EAST OVER THE NEXT
HOUR WITH EAST MOVING OUTFLOWS POTENTIALLY SPARKING CONVECTION
ALONG THE BEACHES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLOW IS WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS COULD CAUSE WATER PROBLEMS ALONG TYPICAL PROBLEM
ROADWAYS. SOME STORMS DID MOVE THROUGH KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI
BEACH...ALONG WITH FT LAUDERDALE EARLIER TODAY...THEREFORE
INSTABILITY MAY HAVE BEEN DAMPENED ENOUGH SUCH THAT THESE
OUTFLOWS HAVE LITTLE EFFECT. MUCH OF THE GULF COAST EXPERIENCED
NUMEROUS STORMS EARLIER TODAY...SO THEY MAY ALSO BE FINISHED WITH
REGARDS TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IMPRESSIVE CHUNK OF DRY AIR
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER
THAN CHANCE BOTH DAYS. EVEN THEN...CHANCE POPS WILL BE MOSTLY KEPT
THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH EVEN SMALLER POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WAS SQUEEZED SOUTH SLIGHTLY DUE TO A
WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US...WILL BUILD BACK NORTH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. PER MIA GFS MODEL
SOUNDING...PWATS ARE ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
INTO MONDAY.

MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  92  78  91 /  10  30  20  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  81  92  81  92 /  10  20  20  30
MIAMI            80  92  79  92 /  10  20  20  30
NAPLES           76  91  76  91 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 270051
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
851 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN GLADES COUNTY CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH THE BULK OF THE REMAINING ACTIVITY
SEEN NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LATEST SHORT TERM GUIDANCE KEEPS
THE AREA DRY OVERNIGHT BUT DID KEEP SLIGHT POPS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 06Z TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY LINGERING BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
THAT MAY TAKE PLACE. UPDATE SENT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

AVIATION...
THE BULK OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION REMAINED
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR LIFT NORTH
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE PALM BEACH AND LAKE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE
BEST RAINFALL CHANCES OVER AND AROUND PBI SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

STORMS NOW OVER DORAL/SWEETWATER WILL EXPAND EAST OVER THE NEXT
HOUR WITH EAST MOVING OUTFLOWS POTENTIALLY SPARKING CONVECTION
ALONG THE BEACHES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLOW IS WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS COULD CAUSE WATER PROBLEMS ALONG TYPICAL PROBLEM
ROADWAYS. SOME STORMS DID MOVE THROUGH KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI
BEACH...ALONG WITH FT LAUDERDALE EARLIER TODAY...THEREFORE
INSTABILITY MAY HAVE BEEN DAMPENED ENOUGH SUCH THAT THESE
OUTFLOWS HAVE LITTLE EFFECT. MUCH OF THE GULF COAST EXPERIENCED
NUMEROUS STORMS EARLIER TODAY...SO THEY MAY ALSO BE FINISHED WITH
REGARDS TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IMPRESSIVE CHUNK OF DRY AIR
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER
THAN CHANCE BOTH DAYS. EVEN THEN...CHANCE POPS WILL BE MOSTLY KEPT
THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH EVEN SMALLER POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WAS SQUEEZED SOUTH SLIGHTLY DUE TO A
WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US...WILL BUILD BACK NORTH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. PER MIA GFS MODEL
SOUNDING...PWATS ARE ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
INTO MONDAY.

MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  78  92 /  20  30  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  89  81  92 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  91  80  92 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           77  91  76  91 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262351
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
THE BULK OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION REMAINED
NORTH OF THE TERMINALS TODAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY...EXPECT SLIGHTLY DRIER
CONDITIONS AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AND DRIER AIR LIFT NORTH
OVER THE AREA. THE BEST SOURCE OF DEEPER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE PALM BEACH AND LAKE REGION SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE
BEST RAINFALL CHANCES OVER AND AROUND PBI SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 256 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

STORMS NOW OVER DORAL/SWEETWATER WILL EXPAND EAST OVER THE NEXT
HOUR WITH EAST MOVING OUTFLOWS POTENTIALLY SPARKING CONVECTION
ALONG THE BEACHES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLOW IS WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS COULD CAUSE WATER PROBLEMS ALONG TYPICAL PROBLEM
ROADWAYS. SOME STORMS DID MOVE THROUGH KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI
BEACH...ALONG WITH FT LAUDERDALE EARLIER TODAY...THEREFORE
INSTABILITY MAY HAVE BEEN DAMPENED ENOUGH SUCH THAT THESE
OUTFLOWS HAVE LITTLE EFFECT. MUCH OF THE GULF COAST EXPERIENCED
NUMEROUS STORMS EARLIER TODAY...SO THEY MAY ALSO BE FINISHED WITH
REGARDS TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IMPRESSIVE CHUNK OF DRY AIR
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER
THAN CHANCE BOTH DAYS. EVEN THEN...CHANCE POPS WILL BE MOSTLY KEPT
THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH EVEN SMALLER POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WAS SQUEEZED SOUTH SLIGHTLY DUE TO A
WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US...WILL BUILD BACK NORTH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. PER MIA GFS MODEL
SOUNDING...PWATS ARE ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
INTO MONDAY.

AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...AND THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT
KMIA...KOPF...AND KTMB OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SO HAVE TEMPOS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. IT WAS QUIETER ACROSS THE BROWARD TAF SITES
DUE TO EARLY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...AND STORMS COULD GET NEAR THE TAF SITES
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS KPBI...BUT WAS WEAKENING AS IT WAS MOVING
CLOSER. KAPF HAS A CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD...AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY
NOT DEVELOP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FOR
NOW AT KAPF AS WELL AND KEPT WINDS VARIABLE. WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ERRATIC. LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES. DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...A THETA-E GRADIENT WILL REMAIN NEAR KPBI...AND STORMS
MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITE IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  90  78  92 /  20  30  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  89  81  92 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  91  80  92 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           77  91  76  91 /  20  30  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261856
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STORMS NOW OVER DORAL/SWEETWATER WILL EXPAND EAST OVER THE NEXT
HOUR WITH EAST MOVING OUTFLOWS POTENTIALLY SPARKING CONVECTION
ALONG THE BEACHES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLOW IS WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS COULD CAUSE WATER PROBLEMS ALONG TYPICAL PROBLEM
ROADWAYS. SOME STORMS DID MOVE THROUGH KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI
BEACH...ALONG WITH FT LAUDERDALE EARLIER TODAY...THEREFORE
INSTABILITY MAY HAVE BEEN DAMPENED ENOUGH SUCH THAT THESE
OUTFLOWS HAVE LITTLE EFFECT. MUCH OF THE GULF COAST EXPERIENCED
NUMEROUS STORMS EARLIER TODAY...SO THEY MAY ALSO BE FINISHED WITH
REGARDS TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IMPRESSIVE CHUNK OF DRY AIR
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER
THAN CHANCE BOTH DAYS. EVEN THEN...CHANCE POPS WILL BE MOSTLY KEPT
THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH EVEN SMALLER POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WAS SQUEEZED SOUTH SLIGHTLY DUE TO A
WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US...WILL BUILD BACK NORTH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. PER MIA GFS MODEL
SOUNDING...PWATS ARE ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...AND THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT
KMIA...KOPF...AND KTMB OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SO HAVE TEMPOS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. IT WAS QUIETER ACROSS THE BROWARD TAF SITES
DUE TO EARLY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...AND STORMS COULD GET NEAR THE TAF SITES
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS KPBI...BUT WAS WEAKENING AS IT WAS MOVING
CLOSER. KAPF HAS A CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD...AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY
NOT DEVELOP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FOR
NOW AT KAPF AS WELL AND KEPT WINDS VARIABLE. WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ERRATIC. LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES. DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...A THETA-E GRADIENT WILL REMAIN NEAR KPBI...AND STORMS
MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITE IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  89  77  90 /  20  30  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  79  92 /  20  20  10  30
MIAMI            80  90  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           77  90  77  90 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261856
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
256 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

STORMS NOW OVER DORAL/SWEETWATER WILL EXPAND EAST OVER THE NEXT
HOUR WITH EAST MOVING OUTFLOWS POTENTIALLY SPARKING CONVECTION
ALONG THE BEACHES IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FLOW IS WEAK AND SLOW
MOVING STORMS COULD CAUSE WATER PROBLEMS ALONG TYPICAL PROBLEM
ROADWAYS. SOME STORMS DID MOVE THROUGH KEY BISCAYNE AND MIAMI
BEACH...ALONG WITH FT LAUDERDALE EARLIER TODAY...THEREFORE
INSTABILITY MAY HAVE BEEN DAMPENED ENOUGH SUCH THAT THESE
OUTFLOWS HAVE LITTLE EFFECT. MUCH OF THE GULF COAST EXPERIENCED
NUMEROUS STORMS EARLIER TODAY...SO THEY MAY ALSO BE FINISHED WITH
REGARDS TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IMPRESSIVE CHUNK OF DRY AIR
ARRIVES FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS NO GREATER
THAN CHANCE BOTH DAYS. EVEN THEN...CHANCE POPS WILL BE MOSTLY KEPT
THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH EVEN SMALLER POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WHICH WAS SQUEEZED SOUTH SLIGHTLY DUE TO A
WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN US...WILL BUILD BACK NORTH
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT. PER MIA GFS MODEL
SOUNDING...PWATS ARE ALMOST 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...AND THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT
KMIA...KOPF...AND KTMB OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SO HAVE TEMPOS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. IT WAS QUIETER ACROSS THE BROWARD TAF SITES
DUE TO EARLY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...AND STORMS COULD GET NEAR THE TAF SITES
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS KPBI...BUT WAS WEAKENING AS IT WAS MOVING
CLOSER. KAPF HAS A CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD...AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY
NOT DEVELOP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FOR
NOW AT KAPF AS WELL AND KEPT WINDS VARIABLE. WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ERRATIC. LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES. DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...A THETA-E GRADIENT WILL REMAIN NEAR KPBI...AND STORMS
MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITE IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  89  77  90 /  20  30  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  79  92 /  20  20  10  30
MIAMI            80  90  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           77  90  77  90 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
134 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...AND THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT
KMIA...KOPF...AND KTMB OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SO HAVE TEMPOS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. IT WAS QUIETER ACROSS THE BROWARD TAF SITES
DUE TO EARLY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...AND STORMS COULD GET NEAR THE TAF SITES
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS KPBI...BUT WAS WEAKENING AS IT WAS MOVING
CLOSER. KAPF HAS A CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD...AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY
NOT DEVELOP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FOR
NOW AT KAPF AS WELL AND KEPT WINDS VARIABLE. WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ERRATIC. LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES. DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...A THETA-E GRADIENT WILL REMAIN NEAR KPBI...AND STORMS
MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITE IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

UPDATE...
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WEST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA. THUS...LIGHT SSW TO SSE SURFACE
FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM WEST COAST TO EAST COAST RESPECTIVELY
THROUGH TODAY. SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MAY MAKE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MORE LIKELY
CLOSER THE EAST COAST...BUT OTHER MITIGATING FACTORS SUCH AS WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE ONLY SCATTERED EAST COAST. NUMEROUS STORMS JUST SSW
OF KAPF ARE ONGOING...AS OUTFLOWS SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE
THROUGH THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORMS ALSO FIRING INLAND...EXTREME EASTERN COLLIER AND EXTREME NW
DADE. ALL OF THESE AREAS WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY. HRRR
AND SOME LOCAL MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO
PERHAPS CENTRAL DADE COUNTY BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CELLS WILL
BE MOVING NORTH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS ISN`T ANY GREATER THAN
USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER BISCAYNE BAY AND WERE
MOVING NORTH...AND THESE COULD GET NEAR KMIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES PUSHING INLAND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...SO THERE IS FORECAST TO BE
MORE ACTIVITY NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. KEPT VCTS FOR
NOW...BUT TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES LATER TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST...OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ENTERING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PENINSULA TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S ACROSS
THE PENINSULA COULD STILL BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THAT THE
DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE
IN THE LAKE REGION AND IN GENERAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND MIGHT PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST TO BE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  89  77  90 /  20  30  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  79  92 /  20  20  10  30
MIAMI            80  90  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           77  90  77  90 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261734
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
134 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
CENTRAL MIAMI-DADE COUNTY...AND THESE WILL LIKELY AFFECT
KMIA...KOPF...AND KTMB OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. SO HAVE TEMPOS
FOR THOSE LOCATIONS. IT WAS QUIETER ACROSS THE BROWARD TAF SITES
DUE TO EARLY CONVECTION. HOWEVER...STORMS WERE DEVELOPING ACROSS
CENTRAL BROWARD COUNTY...AND STORMS COULD GET NEAR THE TAF SITES
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS
MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS KPBI...BUT WAS WEAKENING AS IT WAS MOVING
CLOSER. KAPF HAS A CIRRUS DECK OVERHEAD...AND THE SEA BREEZE MAY
NOT DEVELOP THERE THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIP FOR
NOW AT KAPF AS WELL AND KEPT WINDS VARIABLE. WITH CONVECTION
ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION...WIND DIRECTION WILL BE ERRATIC. LIGHT
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS/STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE TAF SITES. DRIER AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...A THETA-E GRADIENT WILL REMAIN NEAR KPBI...AND STORMS
MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITE IN THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...DRY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED UNTIL AFTER
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

UPDATE...
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WEST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA. THUS...LIGHT SSW TO SSE SURFACE
FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM WEST COAST TO EAST COAST RESPECTIVELY
THROUGH TODAY. SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MAY MAKE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MORE LIKELY
CLOSER THE EAST COAST...BUT OTHER MITIGATING FACTORS SUCH AS WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE ONLY SCATTERED EAST COAST. NUMEROUS STORMS JUST SSW
OF KAPF ARE ONGOING...AS OUTFLOWS SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE
THROUGH THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORMS ALSO FIRING INLAND...EXTREME EASTERN COLLIER AND EXTREME NW
DADE. ALL OF THESE AREAS WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY. HRRR
AND SOME LOCAL MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO
PERHAPS CENTRAL DADE COUNTY BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CELLS WILL
BE MOVING NORTH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS ISN`T ANY GREATER THAN
USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER BISCAYNE BAY AND WERE
MOVING NORTH...AND THESE COULD GET NEAR KMIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES PUSHING INLAND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...SO THERE IS FORECAST TO BE
MORE ACTIVITY NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. KEPT VCTS FOR
NOW...BUT TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES LATER TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST...OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ENTERING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PENINSULA TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S ACROSS
THE PENINSULA COULD STILL BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THAT THE
DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE
IN THE LAKE REGION AND IN GENERAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND MIGHT PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST TO BE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  89  77  90 /  20  30  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  79  92 /  20  20  10  30
MIAMI            80  90  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           77  90  77  90 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261431
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WEST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA. THUS...LIGHT SSW TO SSE SURFACE
FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM WEST COAST TO EAST COAST RESPECTIVELY
THROUGH TODAY. SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MAY MAKE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MORE LIKELY
CLOSER THE EAST COAST...BUT OTHER MITIGATING FACTORS SUCH AS WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE ONLY SCATTERED EAST COAST. NUMEROUS STORMS JUST SSW
OF KAPF ARE ONGOING...AS OUTFLOWS SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE
THROUGH THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORMS ALSO FIRING INLAND...EXTREME EASTERN COLLIER AND EXTREME NW
DADE. ALL OF THESE AREAS WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY. HRRR
AND SOME LOCAL MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO
PERHAPS CENTRAL DADE COUNTY BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CELLS WILL
BE MOVING NORTH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS ISN`T ANY GREATER THAN
USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER BISCAYNE BAY AND WERE
MOVING NORTH...AND THESE COULD GET NEAR KMIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES PUSHING INLAND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...SO THERE IS FORECAST TO BE
MORE ACTIVITY NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. KEPT VCTS FOR
NOW...BUT TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES LATER TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST...OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ENTERING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PENINSULA TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S ACROSS
THE PENINSULA COULD STILL BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THAT THE
DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE
IN THE LAKE REGION AND IN GENERAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND MIGHT PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST TO BE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  77 /  40  20  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  30  20  20  10
MIAMI            89  80  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261431
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1031 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
SURFACE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE INFLUENCED BY A TROUGH NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN US COAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
WEST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH FLORIDA. THUS...LIGHT SSW TO SSE SURFACE
FLOW IS EXPECTED FROM WEST COAST TO EAST COAST RESPECTIVELY
THROUGH TODAY. SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TODAY COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...MAY MAKE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE MORE LIKELY
CLOSER THE EAST COAST...BUT OTHER MITIGATING FACTORS SUCH AS WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND INCREASINGLY DRY AIR THROUGH THE MID LEVELS SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE ONLY SCATTERED EAST COAST. NUMEROUS STORMS JUST SSW
OF KAPF ARE ONGOING...AS OUTFLOWS SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE
THROUGH THAT PART OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
STORMS ALSO FIRING INLAND...EXTREME EASTERN COLLIER AND EXTREME NW
DADE. ALL OF THESE AREAS WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS TODAY. HRRR
AND SOME LOCAL MODELS INDICATING THAT ACTIVITY SPREADS INTO
PERHAPS CENTRAL DADE COUNTY BY THIS AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH CELLS WILL
BE MOVING NORTH MUCH OF THE DAY. ALTHOUGH STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS...THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS ISN`T ANY GREATER THAN
USUAL THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 737 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER BISCAYNE BAY AND WERE
MOVING NORTH...AND THESE COULD GET NEAR KMIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES PUSHING INLAND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...SO THERE IS FORECAST TO BE
MORE ACTIVITY NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. KEPT VCTS FOR
NOW...BUT TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES LATER TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST...OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ENTERING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHWARD. THE CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT LIKELY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH
NORTH TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PENINSULA TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S ACROSS
THE PENINSULA COULD STILL BE AROUND 1.8 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND
LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BUILDING INTO THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON
WHICH COULD MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THAT THE
DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE
IN THE LAKE REGION AND IN GENERAL ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND
TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH MORE ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND MIGHT PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST TO BE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  77 /  40  20  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  30  20  20  10
MIAMI            89  80  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  70  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261137
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
737 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER BISCAYNE BAY AND WERE
MOVING NORTH...AND THESE COULD GET NEAR KMIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES PUSHING INLAND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...SO THERE IS FORECAST TO BE
MORE ACTIVITY NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. KEPT VCTS FOR
NOW...BUT TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES LATER TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST...OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ENTERING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT
LIKELY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PWAT`S ACROSS THE PENINSULA COULD STILL BE AROUND
1.8 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BUILDING INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THAT THE
DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LAKE REGION AND IN GENERAL
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND MIGHT PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST TO BE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  77 /  40  20  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  40  20  20  10
MIAMI            89  80  90  79 /  40  10  20  10
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261137
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
737 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THIS
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO DEVELOPED OVER BISCAYNE BAY AND WERE
MOVING NORTH...AND THESE COULD GET NEAR KMIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING...WITH SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES PUSHING INLAND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...SO THERE IS FORECAST TO BE
MORE ACTIVITY NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. KEPT VCTS FOR
NOW...BUT TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME OF THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES LATER TODAY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST...OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ENTERING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT
LIKELY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PWAT`S ACROSS THE PENINSULA COULD STILL BE AROUND
1.8 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BUILDING INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THAT THE
DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LAKE REGION AND IN GENERAL
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY
SURFACE WINDS AND LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND MIGHT PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST TO BE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  89  77 /  40  20  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  79 /  40  20  20  10
MIAMI            89  80  90  79 /  40  10  20  10
NAPLES           90  77  90  77 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260731
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
331 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ENTERING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT
LIKELY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PWAT`S ACROSS THE PENINSULA COULD STILL BE AROUND
1.8 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BUILDING INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THAT THE
DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LAKE REGION AND IN GENERAL ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND MIGHT PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST TO BE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  78  90  78 /  40  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  80 /  30  10  20  10
MIAMI            90  80  91  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           91  77  90  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 260731
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
331 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ENTERING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS DRIER AIR MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL NOT
LIKELY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE CHANCES OF
CONVECTION ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT PWAT`S ACROSS THE PENINSULA COULD STILL BE AROUND
1.8 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND LINGERING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS BUILDING INTO
THE REGION BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH COULD MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

THERE IS BROAD AGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING THAT THE
DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWARD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
PENINSULA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE FAVORED AREA WILL BE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LAKE REGION AND IN GENERAL ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY ALTHOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
LOW LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD FAVOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA WITH MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE.

BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT IN
THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING A LARGE AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DEVELOPING IN THE VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND POSSIBLY
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF. THE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO INDICATE AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH THE
LAKE REGION LATE TUESDAY AND MIGHT PUSH FURTHER SOUTH INTO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MAIN EFFECT ON SOUTH FLORIDA FORECAST TO BE
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY IN GENERAL AND ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS WITH FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS.

FOR NEXT WEEK...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY
MONDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL
WATERS AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS. REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  78  90  78 /  40  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  91  80 /  30  10  20  10
MIAMI            90  80  91  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           91  77  90  77 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260531
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
131 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.AVIATION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HRRR SHOWS
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG BOTH COASTS. SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS FOR
ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. BRIEF IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE AND WILL MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
FOR AMENDMENTS IF NECESSARY LATER TODAY. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME
ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10 KT. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AND
GUSTY IN AND NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 939 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA...NO MAJOR
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS
ON TRACK. THE STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY ESE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A FEW STORMS ARE
LINGERING MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES TONIGHT DUE TO BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AND SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST SITES. SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS IS A WEAK TROUGH AND THIS HAS
CAUSED SOME DESTABILIZATION TO THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAN YESTERDAY BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY INLAND
AWAY FROM THE COASTS. HOWEVER, STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE COASTS SO SOME CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP JUST INLAND FROM THE
COASTS BEFORE THE SEA BREEZES PUSH THE ACTIVITY WELL INLAND. MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, AND
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRIER AIR WITH THE NAM NOT
SHOWING IT TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STILL, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PWAT LOWERING
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL STILL BE ANTICIPATED. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BE MORE EASTERLY BUT AT 5 MPH OR LESS SO SOME
STORMS COULD AGAIN FORM JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTS BEFORE PUSHING
TO THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DRIEST AIR WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PWAT DOWN TO LESS THAN 1.2 INCHES SO ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LESS. THE
500MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DEPICTED TO WARM BACK TO AROUND -5 TO -
6C WHICH ALSO WILL ACT TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
A STRONG AND DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTH
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SET UP WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFS
NOR ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AT THIS TIME AND NEITHER
INCREASE MOISTURE SUBSTANTIALLY. SO IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME JUST HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON SOUTH FLORIDA
BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON A SIDE NOTE, THERE IS A SAHARAN DUST LAYER (SAL) ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THIS TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST BUT ARE SHOWING A DIFFUSE PART OF IT REACHING
SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO MAJOR EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH IT COULD MAKE THE SKY APPEAR
HAZIER THAN NORMAL.

MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  90  78  91 /  20  20  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  80  92 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            80  91  79  93 /  10  20  10  30
NAPLES           77  90  77  92 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA...NO MAJOR
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS
ON TRACK. THE STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY ESE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A FEW STORMS ARE
LINGERING MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES TONIGHT DUE TO BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AND SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST SITES. SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS IS A WEAK TROUGH AND THIS HAS
CAUSED SOME DESTABILIZATION TO THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAN YESTERDAY BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY INLAND
AWAY FROM THE COASTS. HOWEVER, STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE COASTS SO SOME CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP JUST INLAND FROM THE
COASTS BEFORE THE SEA BREEZES PUSH THE ACTIVITY WELL INLAND. MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, AND
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRIER AIR WITH THE NAM NOT
SHOWING IT TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STILL, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PWAT LOWERING
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL STILL BE ANTICIPATED. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BE MORE EASTERLY BUT AT 5 MPH OR LESS SO SOME
STORMS COULD AGAIN FORM JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTS BEFORE PUSHING
TO THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DRIEST AIR WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PWAT DOWN TO LESS THAN 1.2 INCHES SO ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LESS. THE
500MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DEPICTED TO WARM BACK TO AROUND -5 TO -
6C WHICH ALSO WILL ACT TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
A STRONG AND DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTH
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SET UP WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFS
NOR ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AT THIS TIME AND NEITHER
INCREASE MOISTURE SUBSTANTIALLY. SO IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME JUST HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON SOUTH FLORIDA
BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON A SIDE NOTE, THERE IS A SAHARAN DUST LAYER (SAL) ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THIS TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST BUT ARE SHOWING A DIFFUSE PART OF IT REACHING
SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO MAJOR EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH IT COULD MAKE THE SKY APPEAR
HAZIER THAN NORMAL.

MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  89  78  90 /  20  40  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  80  91 /  20  30  10  20
MIAMI            80  90  80  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           76  91  77  90 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR TWEAKS WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST PACKAGE
BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA...NO MAJOR
UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS
ON TRACK. THE STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EXTENDING NORTHWARD ACROSS INLAND BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES
SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC WATERS. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY ESE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A FEW STORMS ARE
LINGERING MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES TONIGHT DUE TO BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AND SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST SITES. SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS IS A WEAK TROUGH AND THIS HAS
CAUSED SOME DESTABILIZATION TO THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAN YESTERDAY BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY INLAND
AWAY FROM THE COASTS. HOWEVER, STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE COASTS SO SOME CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP JUST INLAND FROM THE
COASTS BEFORE THE SEA BREEZES PUSH THE ACTIVITY WELL INLAND. MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, AND
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRIER AIR WITH THE NAM NOT
SHOWING IT TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STILL, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PWAT LOWERING
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL STILL BE ANTICIPATED. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BE MORE EASTERLY BUT AT 5 MPH OR LESS SO SOME
STORMS COULD AGAIN FORM JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTS BEFORE PUSHING
TO THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DRIEST AIR WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PWAT DOWN TO LESS THAN 1.2 INCHES SO ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LESS. THE
500MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DEPICTED TO WARM BACK TO AROUND -5 TO -
6C WHICH ALSO WILL ACT TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
A STRONG AND DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTH
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SET UP WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFS
NOR ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AT THIS TIME AND NEITHER
INCREASE MOISTURE SUBSTANTIALLY. SO IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME JUST HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON SOUTH FLORIDA
BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON A SIDE NOTE, THERE IS A SAHARAN DUST LAYER (SAL) ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THIS TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST BUT ARE SHOWING A DIFFUSE PART OF IT REACHING
SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO MAJOR EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH IT COULD MAKE THE SKY APPEAR
HAZIER THAN NORMAL.

MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  89  78  90 /  20  40  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  80  91 /  20  30  10  20
MIAMI            80  90  80  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           76  91  77  90 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 252333
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY ESE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A FEW STORMS ARE
LINGERING MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES TONIGHT DUE TO BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AND SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST SITES. SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS IS A WEAK TROUGH AND THIS HAS
CAUSED SOME DESTABILIZATION TO THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAN YESTERDAY BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY INLAND
AWAY FROM THE COASTS. HOWEVER, STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE COASTS SO SOME CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP JUST INLAND FROM THE
COASTS BEFORE THE SEA BREEZES PUSH THE ACTIVITY WELL INLAND. MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, AND
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRIER AIR WITH THE NAM NOT
SHOWING IT TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STILL, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PWAT LOWERING
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL STILL BE ANTICIPATED. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BE MORE EASTERLY BUT AT 5 MPH OR LESS SO SOME
STORMS COULD AGAIN FORM JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTS BEFORE PUSHING
TO THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DRIEST AIR WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PWAT DOWN TO LESS THAN 1.2 INCHES SO ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LESS. THE
500MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DEPICTED TO WARM BACK TO AROUND -5 TO -
6C WHICH ALSO WILL ACT TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
A STRONG AND DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTH
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SET UP WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFS
NOR ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AT THIS TIME AND NEITHER
INCREASE MOISTURE SUBSTANTIALLY. SO IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME JUST HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON SOUTH FLORIDA
BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON A SIDE NOTE, THERE IS A SAHARAN DUST LAYER (SAL) ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THIS TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST BUT ARE SHOWING A DIFFUSE PART OF IT REACHING
SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO MAJOR EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH IT COULD MAKE THE SKY APPEAR
HAZIER THAN NORMAL.

MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  89  78 /  20  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  91  80 /  20  20  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  90  80 /  20  20  30  10
NAPLES           92  76  91  77 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252333
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
733 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OUTSIDE OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS. MAINLY ESE WINDS SHOULD PERSIST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. A FEW STORMS ARE
LINGERING MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE...BROWARD...AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES TONIGHT DUE TO BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. THESE STORMS ARE WEAKENING AND SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM
THE EAST COAST SITES. SOUTHEAST FLOW TO RETURN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
WITH A GULF BREEZE AT KAPF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS IS A WEAK TROUGH AND THIS HAS
CAUSED SOME DESTABILIZATION TO THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAN YESTERDAY BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY INLAND
AWAY FROM THE COASTS. HOWEVER, STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE COASTS SO SOME CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP JUST INLAND FROM THE
COASTS BEFORE THE SEA BREEZES PUSH THE ACTIVITY WELL INLAND. MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, AND
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRIER AIR WITH THE NAM NOT
SHOWING IT TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STILL, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PWAT LOWERING
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL STILL BE ANTICIPATED. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BE MORE EASTERLY BUT AT 5 MPH OR LESS SO SOME
STORMS COULD AGAIN FORM JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTS BEFORE PUSHING
TO THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DRIEST AIR WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PWAT DOWN TO LESS THAN 1.2 INCHES SO ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LESS. THE
500MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DEPICTED TO WARM BACK TO AROUND -5 TO -
6C WHICH ALSO WILL ACT TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
A STRONG AND DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTH
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SET UP WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFS
NOR ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AT THIS TIME AND NEITHER
INCREASE MOISTURE SUBSTANTIALLY. SO IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME JUST HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON SOUTH FLORIDA
BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON A SIDE NOTE, THERE IS A SAHARAN DUST LAYER (SAL) ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THIS TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST BUT ARE SHOWING A DIFFUSE PART OF IT REACHING
SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO MAJOR EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH IT COULD MAKE THE SKY APPEAR
HAZIER THAN NORMAL.

MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  77  89  78 /  20  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  80  91  80 /  20  20  30  10
MIAMI            91  80  90  80 /  20  20  30  10
NAPLES           92  76  91  77 /  20  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 251814
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS IS A WEAK TROUGH AND THIS HAS
CAUSED SOME DESTABILIZATION TO THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAN YESTERDAY BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY INLAND
AWAY FROM THE COASTS. HOWEVER, STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE COASTS SO SOME CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP JUST INLAND FROM THE
COASTS BEFORE THE SEA BREEZES PUSH THE ACTIVITY WELL INLAND. MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, AND
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRIER AIR WITH THE NAM NOT
SHOWING IT TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STILL, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PWAT LOWERING
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL STILL BE ANTICIPATED. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BE MORE EASTERLY BUT AT 5 MPH OR LESS SO SOME
STORMS COULD AGAIN FORM JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTS BEFORE PUSHING
TO THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DRIEST AIR WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PWAT DOWN TO LESS THAN 1.2 INCHES SO ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LESS. THE
500MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DEPICTED TO WARM BACK TO AROUND -5 TO -
6C WHICH ALSO WILL ACT TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
A STRONG AND DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTH
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SET UP WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFS
NOR ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AT THIS TIME AND NEITHER
INCREASE MOISTURE SUBSTANTIALLY. SO IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME JUST HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON SOUTH FLORIDA
BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON A SIDE NOTE, THERE IS A SAHARAN DUST LAYER (SAL) ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THIS TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST BUT ARE SHOWING A DIFFUSE PART OF IT REACHING
SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO MAJOR EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH IT COULD MAKE THE SKY APPEAR
HAZIER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS REMAINED LIMITED...THE FEW
THAT HAVE FORMED HAVE BEEN RIGHT NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT NO OTHER SHOWERS OR STORMS FORM NEAR THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT VCTS THROUGH 22Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES...WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AT KAPF. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST BY
ALL THE MODELS TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD FORM NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR PUNCHES
FULLY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  89  78  90 /  30  40  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  80  91 /  20  30  10  20
MIAMI            80  90  80  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           76  91  77  90 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251814
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT)...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY STRETCHES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE
ATLANTIC WITH ANOTHER STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN THESE TWO HIGHS IS A WEAK TROUGH AND THIS HAS
CAUSED SOME DESTABILIZATION TO THE AIRMASS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. THIS WILL CREATE A MORE ACTIVE AFTERNOON FOR THUNDERSTORMS
THAN YESTERDAY BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP MOST ACTIVITY INLAND
AWAY FROM THE COASTS. HOWEVER, STEERING FLOW IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO
THE COASTS SO SOME CONVECTION WILL FIRE UP JUST INLAND FROM THE
COASTS BEFORE THE SEA BREEZES PUSH THE ACTIVITY WELL INLAND. MUCH
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS, AND
IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE BASE OF THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. THE GFS IS
MUCH FASTER WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DRIER AIR WITH THE NAM NOT
SHOWING IT TO REACH THE SOUTHEAST COASTAL AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. STILL, THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PWAT LOWERING
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND THIS WILL
LIMIT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN VERY UNSTABLE HOWEVER WITH PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO
SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL STILL BE ANTICIPATED. THE
STEERING FLOW WILL BE MORE EASTERLY BUT AT 5 MPH OR LESS SO SOME
STORMS COULD AGAIN FORM JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTS BEFORE PUSHING
TO THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
DRIEST AIR WILL ARRIVE BY SUNDAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
PWAT DOWN TO LESS THAN 1.2 INCHES SO ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH LESS. THE
500MB TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO DEPICTED TO WARM BACK TO AROUND -5 TO -
6C WHICH ALSO WILL ACT TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-FRIDAY)...
A STRONG AND DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK WITH A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERING NORTH
FLORIDA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THIS SET UP WILL LIKELY DESTABILIZE
THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ONCE AGAIN ALTHOUGH NEITHER THE GFS
NOR ECMWF SHOW SIGNIFICANT COOLING ALOFT AT THIS TIME AND NEITHER
INCREASE MOISTURE SUBSTANTIALLY. SO IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS
TIME JUST HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ON SOUTH FLORIDA
BUT THE STEERING FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WITH THE
INTERIOR AND EAST COAST HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THE
THUNDERSTORMS.

ON A SIDE NOTE, THERE IS A SAHARAN DUST LAYER (SAL) ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE MODELS KEEP MOST OF THIS TO
OUR SOUTH AND EAST BUT ARE SHOWING A DIFFUSE PART OF IT REACHING
SOUTHEAST TIP OF THE PENINSULA LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NO MAJOR EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED ALTHOUGH IT COULD MAKE THE SKY APPEAR
HAZIER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS REMAINED LIMITED...THE FEW
THAT HAVE FORMED HAVE BEEN RIGHT NEAR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT NO OTHER SHOWERS OR STORMS FORM NEAR THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT KEPT VCTS THROUGH 22Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5-10
KNOTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AT THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES...WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW AT KAPF. DRIER AIR IS FORECAST BY
ALL THE MODELS TO BEGIN MOVING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD FORM NEAR THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BEFORE THE DRIER AIR PUNCHES
FULLY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND SEAS OF 2 FEET OR LESS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  89  78  90 /  30  40  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  91  80  91 /  20  30  10  20
MIAMI            80  90  80  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           76  91  77  90 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 251442
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1042 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING HAS BECOME PINCHED OFF BETWEEN TWO STRONG RIDGES, ONE TO
OUR EAST AND EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE OTHER
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS HAS LOWERED THE 500MB
TEMPERATURES FROM A BALMY -4.7C YESTERDAY MORNING TO -7C AT 12Z
THIS MORNING FROM THE MFL SOUNDING. DUE TO THIS COOLING ALOFT, THE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AT 6.2C/KG. THIS FIGURE IS NOT HIGH, BUT SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE UNSTABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THAT BEING SAID, WITH PLENTY OF
DIURNAL HEATING TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING (ALREADY 90 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR) THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM
DAY. THE STEERING FLOW IS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SO THE MAIN ACTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS THINKING. HOWEVER, WITH THE FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO BOTH COASTS THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS JUST INLAND
FROM THE COASTS UNTIL THE SEA BREEZES CAN STEER THE CELLS MORE
TO THE INTERIOR AREAS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH OVER THE GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF
KAPF...BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD GET NEAR THE TAF SITE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM WELL AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...SO KEPT VCTS OUT OF
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT ONSHORE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MOVE INLAND. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE LOCAL
GULF WATERS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE FORECAST PWAT FOR
THE MIAMI SOUNDING LOCATION AROUND 18Z IS ABOUT 1.7 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR REGIONS WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

THERE IS LIKELY SOME SAHARAN DUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT IS DIFFUSE AND WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA ALTHOUGH THE SKIES COULD BE MORE HAZY
THAN USUAL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
FORECAST PWAT VALUES STILL LINGERING AROUND 1.7 INCHES. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAMPER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR.

BY SUNDAY THE DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
WITH PWATS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES WITH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PENINSULA GREATLY REDUCED WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AROUND THE LAKE REGION FORECAST.

THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A COLD FRONT
COULD ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY AND COULD HAVE
SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO MOVE INTO NORTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE FUTURE GUIDANCE WILL DO WITH
THIS SCENARIO TO SAY WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACTS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH REGIONAL SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  89  78 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  81  90  81 /  20  20  30  20
MIAMI            91  79  91  80 /  30  20  30  20
NAPLES           92  77  90  76 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$CV




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251442
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1042 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
DO NOT PLAN TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING HAS BECOME PINCHED OFF BETWEEN TWO STRONG RIDGES, ONE TO
OUR EAST AND EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH THE OTHER
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS HAS LOWERED THE 500MB
TEMPERATURES FROM A BALMY -4.7C YESTERDAY MORNING TO -7C AT 12Z
THIS MORNING FROM THE MFL SOUNDING. DUE TO THIS COOLING ALOFT, THE
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE TO CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT AT 6.2C/KG. THIS FIGURE IS NOT HIGH, BUT SIGNIFICANTLY
MORE UNSTABLE THAN 24 HOURS AGO. THAT BEING SAID, WITH PLENTY OF
DIURNAL HEATING TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING (ALREADY 90 ACROSS THE
INTERIOR) THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM
DAY. THE STEERING FLOW IS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SO THE MAIN ACTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND THE HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS THINKING. HOWEVER, WITH THE FLOW NEARLY
PARALLEL TO BOTH COASTS THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS JUST INLAND
FROM THE COASTS UNTIL THE SEA BREEZES CAN STEER THE CELLS MORE
TO THE INTERIOR AREAS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 740 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH OVER THE GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF
KAPF...BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD GET NEAR THE TAF SITE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM WELL AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...SO KEPT VCTS OUT OF
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT ONSHORE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MOVE INLAND. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE LOCAL
GULF WATERS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE FORECAST PWAT FOR
THE MIAMI SOUNDING LOCATION AROUND 18Z IS ABOUT 1.7 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR REGIONS WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

THERE IS LIKELY SOME SAHARAN DUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT IS DIFFUSE AND WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA ALTHOUGH THE SKIES COULD BE MORE HAZY
THAN USUAL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
FORECAST PWAT VALUES STILL LINGERING AROUND 1.7 INCHES. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAMPER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR.

BY SUNDAY THE DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
WITH PWATS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES WITH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PENINSULA GREATLY REDUCED WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AROUND THE LAKE REGION FORECAST.

THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A COLD FRONT
COULD ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY AND COULD HAVE
SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO MOVE INTO NORTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE FUTURE GUIDANCE WILL DO WITH
THIS SCENARIO TO SAY WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACTS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH REGIONAL SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  89  78 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  81  90  81 /  20  20  30  20
MIAMI            91  79  91  80 /  30  20  30  20
NAPLES           92  77  90  76 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$CV





000
FXUS62 KMFL 251140
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH OVER THE GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF
KAPF...BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD GET NEAR THE TAF SITE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM WELL AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...SO KEPT VCTS OUT OF
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT ONSHORE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MOVE INLAND. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE LOCAL
GULF WATERS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE FORECAST PWAT FOR
THE MIAMI SOUNDING LOCATION AROUND 18Z IS ABOUT 1.7 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR REGIONS WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

THERE IS LIKELY SOME SAHARAN DUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT IS DIFFUSE AND WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA ALTHOUGH THE SKIES COULD BE MORE HAZY
THAN USUAL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
FORECAST PWAT VALUES STILL LINGERING AROUND 1.7 INCHES. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAMPER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR.

BY SUNDAY THE DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
WITH PWATS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES WITH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PENINSULA GREATLY REDUCED WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AROUND THE LAKE REGION FORECAST.

THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A COLD FRONT
COULD ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY AND COULD HAVE
SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO MOVE INTO NORTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE FUTURE GUIDANCE WILL DO WITH
THIS SCENARIO TO SAY WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACTS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH REGIONAL SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  89  78 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  81  90  81 /  20  20  30  20
MIAMI            91  79  91  80 /  30  20  30  20
NAPLES           92  77  90  76 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 251140
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WERE MOVING NORTH OVER THE GULF WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF
KAPF...BUT A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD GET NEAR THE TAF SITE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM WELL AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE DRIER AIR...SO KEPT VCTS OUT OF
THE EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR NOW. LIGHT WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SHIFT ONSHORE AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AS SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES MOVE INLAND. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE LOCAL
GULF WATERS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE FORECAST PWAT FOR
THE MIAMI SOUNDING LOCATION AROUND 18Z IS ABOUT 1.7 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR REGIONS WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

THERE IS LIKELY SOME SAHARAN DUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT IS DIFFUSE AND WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA ALTHOUGH THE SKIES COULD BE MORE HAZY
THAN USUAL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
FORECAST PWAT VALUES STILL LINGERING AROUND 1.7 INCHES. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAMPER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR.

BY SUNDAY THE DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
WITH PWATS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES WITH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PENINSULA GREATLY REDUCED WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AROUND THE LAKE REGION FORECAST.

THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A COLD FRONT
COULD ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY AND COULD HAVE
SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO MOVE INTO NORTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE FUTURE GUIDANCE WILL DO WITH
THIS SCENARIO TO SAY WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACTS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH REGIONAL SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  78  89  78 /  30  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  81  90  81 /  20  20  30  20
MIAMI            91  79  91  80 /  30  20  30  20
NAPLES           92  77  90  76 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 250725
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE LOCAL
GULF WATERS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE FORECAST PWAT FOR
THE MIAMI SOUNDING LOCATION AROUND 18Z IS ABOUT 1.7 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR REGIONS WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

THERE IS LIKELY SOME SAHARAN DUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT IS DIFFUSE AND WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA ALTHOUGH THE SKIES COULD BE MORE HAZY
THAN USUAL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
FORECAST PWAT VALUES STILL LINGERING AROUND 1.7 INCHES. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAMPER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR.

BY SUNDAY THE DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
WITH PWATS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES WITH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PENINSULA GREATLY REDUCED WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AROUND THE LAKE REGION FORECAST.

THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A COLD FRONT
COULD ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY AND COULD HAVE
SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO MOVE INTO NORTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE FUTURE GUIDANCE WILL DO WITH
THIS SCENARIO TO SAY WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACTS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH REGIONAL SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  90  78 /  30  10  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  80 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            90  79  90  80 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           91  76  91  76 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 250725
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...

RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND THE LOCAL
GULF WATERS. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE DRIER AIR WILL
LIKELY REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE REGION WHILE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. THE FORECAST PWAT FOR
THE MIAMI SOUNDING LOCATION AROUND 18Z IS ABOUT 1.7 INCHES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE WEAK SUBSIDENCE AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED ACROSS THE PENINSULA TODAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR REGIONS WITH MOSTLY ISOLATED
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.

THERE IS LIKELY SOME SAHARAN DUST TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...BUT
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES IT IS DIFFUSE AND WILL NOT LIKELY HAVE
MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA ALTHOUGH THE SKIES COULD BE MORE HAZY
THAN USUAL.

THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEPER MOISTURE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY IS FORECAST TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH
FORECAST PWAT VALUES STILL LINGERING AROUND 1.7 INCHES. LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS
BUT IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO HAMPER CONVECTION
ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR.

BY SUNDAY THE DRIER AIR IN THE STRAITS IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH
WITH PWATS POSSIBLY DROPPING TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES WITH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE PENINSULA GREATLY REDUCED WITH MAINLY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY AROUND THE LAKE REGION FORECAST.

THE LATEST GLOBAL MODEL EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES A COLD FRONT
COULD ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES ON MONDAY AND COULD HAVE
SUFFICIENT ENERGY TO MOVE INTO NORTH TO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY. WILL HAVE TO SEE WHAT THE FUTURE GUIDANCE WILL DO WITH
THIS SCENARIO TO SAY WHAT...IF ANY...IMPACTS MIGHT BE EXPECTED IN
SOUTH FLORIDA LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS ARE FORECAST TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND...WITH REGIONAL SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  77  90  78 /  30  10  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  81  91  80 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            90  79  90  80 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           91  76  91  76 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....60/BD





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