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000
FXUS62 KMFL 271147
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE ADDED LATER TODAY AS TRENDS
DEVELOP. INTERMITTENT IFR CONDS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG. GUIDANCE NOT COMPLETELY IN FAVOR OF
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY, IF IT DOES OCCUR, COULD BE AROUND
18Z AND POSSIBLY MORE FROM THE SE THAN E. CONVECTION WANES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH AN ELONGATED
EAST TO WEST COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.

TODAY WILL START A TRANSITION TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR CONVECTION
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW
HINTING COULD LAST INTO THURSDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LEADING TO
THIS SCENARIO INCLUDES A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TODAY THEN STALLING AROUND THE LAKE REGION. THEN ON TUESDAY A
SURFACE LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING INTO GEORGIA WITH DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUING. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY WITH A CLEARING
TREND ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A TRANSITION IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...THE FORECAST PWAT
IS 1.7 INCHES...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING. ALTHOUGH WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THEY WILL
LIKELY BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
THUS INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE. UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ACTIVE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
INCREASING MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

FOR TUESDAY..REGIONAL PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING AND EXTENDING TO LOWER LEVELS AS WELL AS A
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH DAY TIME
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY...THE DYNAMICAL AND
THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ON WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REGIONAL
PWAT IS ABOUT 1.8 INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUING. BY THURSDAY THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINALLY ENTER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST AND THEN A CLEARING TREND
FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
STABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WITH THIS WET PERIOD EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING POSSIBLE. BUT ALSO NEED TO NOTE
THAT AS THE GROUNDS BECOME MORE SATURATED THAT FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE AS RUNOFF WILL OCCUR MORE EASILY. SO THERE COULD BE
ISOLATED AREAS OF URBAN TYPE FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGIONAL
WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALTHOUGH A
TRANSITION TO EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH ATLANTIC WINDS FORECAST TO
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 23 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GULF AND
ATLANTIC SEAS FORECAST TO REACH 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE OFF SHORE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  86  71 /  50  40  70  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  90  74 /  50  30  60  50
MIAMI            91  76  91  76 /  50  30  50  50
NAPLES           90  76  88  75 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 271147
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...

STORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON. TEMPO GROUPS MAY BE ADDED LATER TODAY AS TRENDS
DEVELOP. INTERMITTENT IFR CONDS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG. GUIDANCE NOT COMPLETELY IN FAVOR OF
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT TODAY, IF IT DOES OCCUR, COULD BE AROUND
18Z AND POSSIBLY MORE FROM THE SE THAN E. CONVECTION WANES THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH AN ELONGATED
EAST TO WEST COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHWARD DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.

TODAY WILL START A TRANSITION TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR CONVECTION
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW
HINTING COULD LAST INTO THURSDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LEADING TO
THIS SCENARIO INCLUDES A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TODAY THEN STALLING AROUND THE LAKE REGION. THEN ON TUESDAY A
SURFACE LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING INTO GEORGIA WITH DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUING. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY WITH A CLEARING
TREND ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A TRANSITION IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...THE FORECAST PWAT
IS 1.7 INCHES...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING. ALTHOUGH WEST SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THEY WILL
LIKELY BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
THUS INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE. UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ACTIVE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
INCREASING MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

FOR TUESDAY..REGIONAL PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING AND EXTENDING TO LOWER LEVELS AS WELL AS A
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH DAY TIME
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY...THE DYNAMICAL AND
THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ON WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REGIONAL
PWAT IS ABOUT 1.8 INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUING. BY THURSDAY THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINALLY ENTER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST AND THEN A CLEARING TREND
FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
STABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WITH THIS WET PERIOD EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING POSSIBLE. BUT ALSO NEED TO NOTE
THAT AS THE GROUNDS BECOME MORE SATURATED THAT FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE AS RUNOFF WILL OCCUR MORE EASILY. SO THERE COULD BE
ISOLATED AREAS OF URBAN TYPE FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGIONAL
WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALTHOUGH A
TRANSITION TO EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH ATLANTIC WINDS FORECAST TO
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 23 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GULF AND
ATLANTIC SEAS FORECAST TO REACH 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE OFF SHORE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  86  71 /  50  40  70  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  90  74 /  50  30  60  50
MIAMI            91  76  91  76 /  50  30  50  50
NAPLES           90  76  88  75 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 270823
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
423 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH AN ELONGATED
EAST TO WEST COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODED TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.

TODAY WILL START A TRANSITION TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR CONVECTION
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW
HINTING COULD LAST INTO THURSDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LEADING TO
THIS SCENARIO INCLUDES A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TODAY THEN STALLING AROUND THE LAKE REGION. THEN ON TUESDAY A
SURFACE LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING INTO GEORGIA WITH DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUING. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY WITH A CLEARING
TREND ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A TRANSITION IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...THE FORECAST PWAT
IS 1.7 INCHES...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING. ALTHOUGH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THEY WILL
LIKELY BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
THUS INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE. UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ACTIVE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
INCREASING MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

FOR TUESDAY..REGIONAL PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING AND EXTENDING TO LOWER LEVELS AS WELL AS A
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH DAY TIME
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY...THE DYNAMICAL AND
THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ON WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REGIONAL
PWAT IS ABOUT 1.8 INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUING. BY THURSDAY THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINALLY ENTER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST AND THEN A CLEARING TREND
FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
STABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WITH THIS WET PERIOD EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING POSSIBLE. BUT ALSO NEED TO NOTE
THAT AS THE GROUNDS BECOME MORE SATURATED THAT FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE AS RUNOFF WILL OCCUR MORE EASILY. SO THERE COULD BE
ISOLATED AREAS OF URBAN TYPE FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.



&&

.MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGIONAL
WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALTHOUGH A
TRANSITION TO EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH ATLANTIC WINDS FORECAST TO
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 23 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GULF AND
ATLANTIC SEAS FORECAST TO REACH 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE OFF SHORE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  86  71 /  50  40  70  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  90  74 /  50  30  60  50
MIAMI            91  76  91  76 /  50  30  50  50
NAPLES           90  76  88  75 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 270823
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
423 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH AN ELONGATED
EAST TO WEST COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.
THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO ERODED TODAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SINKS SOUTHWARD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. AS THE FRONT
MOVES SOUTHWARD DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION.

TODAY WILL START A TRANSITION TO AN ACTIVE PERIOD FOR CONVECTION
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW
HINTING COULD LAST INTO THURSDAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LEADING TO
THIS SCENARIO INCLUDES A COLD FRONT APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TODAY THEN STALLING AROUND THE LAKE REGION. THEN ON TUESDAY A
SURFACE LOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP
ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST AND INTO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. BY WEDNESDAY THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH
FLORIDA WITH THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENING INTO GEORGIA WITH DEEP
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUING. THE COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECAST TO ENTER CENTRAL FLORIDA ON THURSDAY WITH A CLEARING
TREND ON FRIDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A TRANSITION IN THE MID TO
UPPER LEVELS DURING THIS PERIOD WITH THE PERSISTENT MID TO UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF TRANSITIONING TO MORE ZONAL FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.

FOR TODAY...MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THE REGION...THE FORECAST PWAT
IS 1.7 INCHES...WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING. ALTHOUGH WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THEY WILL
LIKELY BE WEAK ENOUGH FOR THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP
THUS INCREASING SURFACE CONVERGENCE. UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE
ACTIVE CONVECTION. IN ADDITION FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
INCREASING MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS. SO THERE COULD BE A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE
WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

FOR TUESDAY..REGIONAL PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE AROUND 1.7 TO 1.8
INCHES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL MID LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS SLOWLY
STRENGTHENING AND EXTENDING TO LOWER LEVELS AS WELL AS A
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION. ALTHOUGH DAY TIME
MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY...THE DYNAMICAL AND
THERMODYNAMIC FACTORS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ACTIVE CONVECTION WITH
A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ON WEDNESDAY THE FORECAST REGIONAL
PWAT IS ABOUT 1.8 INCHES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUING. BY THURSDAY THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINALLY ENTER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST AND THEN A CLEARING TREND
FINALLY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
STABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

WITH THIS WET PERIOD EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WITH MINOR URBAN TYPE FLOODING POSSIBLE. BUT ALSO NEED TO NOTE
THAT AS THE GROUNDS BECOME MORE SATURATED THAT FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL INCREASE AS RUNOFF WILL OCCUR MORE EASILY. SO THERE COULD BE
ISOLATED AREAS OF URBAN TYPE FLOODING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.



&&

.MARINE...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE REGIONAL
WATERS TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY
IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY ALTHOUGH A
TRANSITION TO EASTERLY WINDS FORECAST THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. BY
WEDNESDAY WINDS AND SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH ATLANTIC WINDS FORECAST TO
INCREASE FURTHER TO 20 TO 23 KNOT RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GULF AND
ATLANTIC SEAS FORECAST TO REACH 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE OFF SHORE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  74  86  71 /  50  40  70  60
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  77  90  74 /  50  30  60  50
MIAMI            91  76  91  76 /  50  30  50  50
NAPLES           90  76  88  75 /  20  20  50  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270548
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
148 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER DAYBREAK. BY
NOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG EAST COAST...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
AFTER SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
THE EAST. LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW BEING INDUCED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE
AVERAGE MARK FOR LATE APRIL WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO
AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERHAPS JUST ONE
OR TWO DEGREES LOWER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER BY THEN. THE PWAT WILL JUMP BACK UP TO THE
RANGE OF 1.6- 1.7" THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALSO INCREASING IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KNOTS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE
ECMWF AND NOW HAS A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELEVATED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THAN COULD INHIBIT THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AT ANY RATE, IT
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY GENERALLY DIMINISHING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  74  87  72 /  50  40  70  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  78  90  75 /  40  30  60  50
MIAMI            93  77  92  76 /  30  20  50  50
NAPLES           89  76  87  75 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 270548
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
148 AM EDT MON APR 27 2015

.AVIATION...
WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KTS AFTER DAYBREAK. BY
NOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOP ALONG EAST COAST...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND.
AFTER SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH...WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO
THE EAST. LIGHT SE WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW BEING INDUCED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING
BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE
AVERAGE MARK FOR LATE APRIL WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO
AT LEAST THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERHAPS JUST ONE
OR TWO DEGREES LOWER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER BY THEN. THE PWAT WILL JUMP BACK UP TO THE
RANGE OF 1.6- 1.7" THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALSO INCREASING IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KNOTS. THIS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE
ECMWF AND NOW HAS A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELEVATED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THAN COULD INHIBIT THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AT ANY RATE, IT
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY GENERALLY DIMINISHING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  91  74  87  72 /  50  40  70  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  78  90  75 /  40  30  60  50
MIAMI            93  77  92  76 /  30  20  50  50
NAPLES           89  76  87  75 /  20  20  40  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270100
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
IT WAS A BLAZING HOT DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. HIGHS WERE
IMPRESSIVE...WITH ALL 3 SE FLORIDA MAJOR REPORTING SITES (MIAMI,
FT. LAUDERDALE INTL, PALM BEACH INTL) REACHING 96F. HOWEVER, THE
WINNER GOES TO THE BOCA AREA...WITH A COUPLE MESONET SITES
REGISTERING 100F. FT. LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE HIT 99F!

THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING MEASURED AN IMPRESSIVE 850 MB TEMP OF
+20.4C! NOTICE THE HAZY SKY? THAT`S A RESULT OF SMOKE FROM THE
YUCATAN OF MEXICO OVERSPREADING SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HEAT IS FADING BUT IT WILL BE A VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT. HAZE...POSSIBLY FROM FIRES
OVER THE YUCATAN...WAS AFFECTING KAPF AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS ZONAL WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS HAS PLACED SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS
THE PWAT DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1.5" THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING IS
AT ITS MAXIMUM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SOME
RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR THE DAY.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW BEING INDUCED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE
MARK FOR LATE APRIL WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO AT LEAST
THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERHAPS JUST ONE OR TWO
DEGREES LOWER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER BY THEN. THE PWAT WILL JUMP BACK UP TO THE RANGE OF 1.6-
1.7" THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO
INCREASING IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE
ECMWF AND NOW HAS A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELEVATED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THAN COULD INHIBIT THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AT ANY RATE, IT
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY GENERALLY DIMINISHING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  91  74  87 /  10  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  92  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            78  93  77  92 /  10  30  20  50
NAPLES           78  89  76  87 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 270100
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
IT WAS A BLAZING HOT DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. HIGHS WERE
IMPRESSIVE...WITH ALL 3 SE FLORIDA MAJOR REPORTING SITES (MIAMI,
FT. LAUDERDALE INTL, PALM BEACH INTL) REACHING 96F. HOWEVER, THE
WINNER GOES TO THE BOCA AREA...WITH A COUPLE MESONET SITES
REGISTERING 100F. FT. LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE HIT 99F!

THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING MEASURED AN IMPRESSIVE 850 MB TEMP OF
+20.4C! NOTICE THE HAZY SKY? THAT`S A RESULT OF SMOKE FROM THE
YUCATAN OF MEXICO OVERSPREADING SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HEAT IS FADING BUT IT WILL BE A VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT. HAZE...POSSIBLY FROM FIRES
OVER THE YUCATAN...WAS AFFECTING KAPF AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS ZONAL WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS HAS PLACED SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS
THE PWAT DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1.5" THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING IS
AT ITS MAXIMUM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SOME
RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR THE DAY.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW BEING INDUCED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE
MARK FOR LATE APRIL WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO AT LEAST
THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERHAPS JUST ONE OR TWO
DEGREES LOWER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER BY THEN. THE PWAT WILL JUMP BACK UP TO THE RANGE OF 1.6-
1.7" THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO
INCREASING IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE
ECMWF AND NOW HAS A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELEVATED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THAN COULD INHIBIT THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AT ANY RATE, IT
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY GENERALLY DIMINISHING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  91  74  87 /  10  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  92  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            78  93  77  92 /  10  30  20  50
NAPLES           78  89  76  87 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270100
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
IT WAS A BLAZING HOT DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. HIGHS WERE
IMPRESSIVE...WITH ALL 3 SE FLORIDA MAJOR REPORTING SITES (MIAMI,
FT. LAUDERDALE INTL, PALM BEACH INTL) REACHING 96F. HOWEVER, THE
WINNER GOES TO THE BOCA AREA...WITH A COUPLE MESONET SITES
REGISTERING 100F. FT. LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE HIT 99F!

THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING MEASURED AN IMPRESSIVE 850 MB TEMP OF
+20.4C! NOTICE THE HAZY SKY? THAT`S A RESULT OF SMOKE FROM THE
YUCATAN OF MEXICO OVERSPREADING SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HEAT IS FADING BUT IT WILL BE A VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT. HAZE...POSSIBLY FROM FIRES
OVER THE YUCATAN...WAS AFFECTING KAPF AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS ZONAL WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS HAS PLACED SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS
THE PWAT DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1.5" THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING IS
AT ITS MAXIMUM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SOME
RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR THE DAY.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW BEING INDUCED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE
MARK FOR LATE APRIL WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO AT LEAST
THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERHAPS JUST ONE OR TWO
DEGREES LOWER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER BY THEN. THE PWAT WILL JUMP BACK UP TO THE RANGE OF 1.6-
1.7" THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO
INCREASING IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE
ECMWF AND NOW HAS A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELEVATED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THAN COULD INHIBIT THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AT ANY RATE, IT
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY GENERALLY DIMINISHING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  91  74  87 /  10  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  92  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            78  93  77  92 /  10  30  20  50
NAPLES           78  89  76  87 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 270100
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
900 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
IT WAS A BLAZING HOT DAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST FLORIDA. HIGHS WERE
IMPRESSIVE...WITH ALL 3 SE FLORIDA MAJOR REPORTING SITES (MIAMI,
FT. LAUDERDALE INTL, PALM BEACH INTL) REACHING 96F. HOWEVER, THE
WINNER GOES TO THE BOCA AREA...WITH A COUPLE MESONET SITES
REGISTERING 100F. FT. LAUDERDALE EXECUTIVE HIT 99F!

THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING MEASURED AN IMPRESSIVE 850 MB TEMP OF
+20.4C! NOTICE THE HAZY SKY? THAT`S A RESULT OF SMOKE FROM THE
YUCATAN OF MEXICO OVERSPREADING SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE HEAT IS FADING BUT IT WILL BE A VERY WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S. DRY WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT. HAZE...POSSIBLY FROM FIRES
OVER THE YUCATAN...WAS AFFECTING KAPF AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS ZONAL WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS HAS PLACED SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS
THE PWAT DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1.5" THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING IS
AT ITS MAXIMUM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SOME
RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR THE DAY.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW BEING INDUCED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE
MARK FOR LATE APRIL WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO AT LEAST
THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERHAPS JUST ONE OR TWO
DEGREES LOWER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER BY THEN. THE PWAT WILL JUMP BACK UP TO THE RANGE OF 1.6-
1.7" THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO
INCREASING IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE
ECMWF AND NOW HAS A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELEVATED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THAN COULD INHIBIT THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AT ANY RATE, IT
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY GENERALLY DIMINISHING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  91  74  87 /  10  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  92  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            78  93  77  92 /  10  30  20  50
NAPLES           78  89  76  87 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 262352
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT. HAZE...POSSIBLY FROM FIRES
OVER THE YUCATAN...WAS AFFECTING KAPF AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS ZONAL WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS HAS PLACED SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS
THE PWAT DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1.5" THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING IS
AT ITS MAXIMUM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SOME
RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR THE DAY.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW BEING INDUCED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE
MARK FOR LATE APRIL WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO AT LEAST
THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERHAPS JUST ONE OR TWO
DEGREES LOWER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER BY THEN. THE PWAT WILL JUMP BACK UP TO THE RANGE OF 1.6-
1.7" THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO
INCREASING IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE
ECMWF AND NOW HAS A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELEVATED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THAN COULD INHIBIT THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AT ANY RATE, IT
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY GENERALLY DIMINISHING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  91  74  87 /  10  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  92  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            78  93  77  92 /  10  30  20  50
NAPLES           78  89  76  87 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 262352
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
WESTERLY FLOW WILL RELAX OVERNIGHT. HAZE...POSSIBLY FROM FIRES
OVER THE YUCATAN...WAS AFFECTING KAPF AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN ON MONDAY AND MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS ZONAL WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS HAS PLACED SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS
THE PWAT DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1.5" THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING IS
AT ITS MAXIMUM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SOME
RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR THE DAY.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW BEING INDUCED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE
MARK FOR LATE APRIL WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO AT LEAST
THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERHAPS JUST ONE OR TWO
DEGREES LOWER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER BY THEN. THE PWAT WILL JUMP BACK UP TO THE RANGE OF 1.6-
1.7" THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO
INCREASING IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE
ECMWF AND NOW HAS A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELEVATED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THAN COULD INHIBIT THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AT ANY RATE, IT
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY GENERALLY DIMINISHING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  91  74  87 /  10  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  92  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            78  93  77  92 /  10  30  20  50
NAPLES           78  89  76  87 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261838
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS ZONAL WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS HAS PLACED SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS
THE PWAT DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1.5" THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING IS
AT ITS MAXIMUM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SOME
RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR THE DAY.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW BEING INDUCED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE
MARK FOR LATE APRIL WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO AT LEAST
THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERHAPS JUST ONE OR TWO
DEGREES LOWER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER BY THEN. THE PWAT WILL JUMP BACK UP TO THE RANGE OF 1.6-
1.7" THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO
INCREASING IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE
ECMWF AND NOW HAS A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELEVATED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THAN COULD INHIBIT THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AT ANY RATE, IT
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY GENERALLY DIMINISHING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  91  74  87 /  10  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  92  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            78  93  77  92 /  10  30  20  50
NAPLES           78  89  76  87 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261838
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS ZONAL WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS HAS PLACED SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS
THE PWAT DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1.5" THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING IS
AT ITS MAXIMUM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SOME
RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR THE DAY.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW BEING INDUCED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE
MARK FOR LATE APRIL WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO AT LEAST
THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERHAPS JUST ONE OR TWO
DEGREES LOWER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER BY THEN. THE PWAT WILL JUMP BACK UP TO THE RANGE OF 1.6-
1.7" THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO
INCREASING IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE
ECMWF AND NOW HAS A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELEVATED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THAN COULD INHIBIT THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AT ANY RATE, IT
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY GENERALLY DIMINISHING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  91  74  87 /  10  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  92  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            78  93  77  92 /  10  30  20  50
NAPLES           78  89  76  87 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261838
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS ZONAL WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS HAS PLACED SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS
THE PWAT DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1.5" THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING IS
AT ITS MAXIMUM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SOME
RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR THE DAY.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW BEING INDUCED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE
MARK FOR LATE APRIL WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO AT LEAST
THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERHAPS JUST ONE OR TWO
DEGREES LOWER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER BY THEN. THE PWAT WILL JUMP BACK UP TO THE RANGE OF 1.6-
1.7" THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO
INCREASING IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE
ECMWF AND NOW HAS A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELEVATED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THAN COULD INHIBIT THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AT ANY RATE, IT
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY GENERALLY DIMINISHING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  91  74  87 /  10  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  92  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            78  93  77  92 /  10  30  20  50
NAPLES           78  89  76  87 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261838
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
238 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AS OF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA REMAINS ZONAL WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS
AND A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES WITH A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS HAS PLACED SOUTH FLORIDA UNDER A DEEP
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH VERY LITTLE CLOUD COVER IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT AS
THE PWAT DROPPED TO LESS THAN 1.5" THIS MORNING. DIURNAL HEATING IS
AT ITS MAXIMUM WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S OVER THE INTERIOR AND ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. SOME
RECORD HIGHS COULD BE IN JEOPARDY FOR THE DAY.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY RETURN ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW BEING INDUCED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA ON MONDAY WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING BY
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE THE AVERAGE
MARK FOR LATE APRIL WITH READINGS ONCE AGAIN CLIMBING INTO AT LEAST
THE LOWER 90S ALONG THE EAST COAST AND PERHAPS JUST ONE OR TWO
DEGREES LOWER ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF
CLOUD COVER BY THEN. THE PWAT WILL JUMP BACK UP TO THE RANGE OF 1.6-
1.7" THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST WINDS ALSO
INCREASING IN THE RANGE OF 30-40 KNOTS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING INSTABILITY AND THUS INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY BY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY)...
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLOWLY GET PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH AND SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE SOLUTION DEPICTED BY THE
ECMWF AND NOW HAS A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PUSHING ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY INTO
EARLY THURSDAY TO KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ELEVATED. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME ON WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE EXACT
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER
THAN COULD INHIBIT THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. AT ANY RATE, IT
APPEARS MORE LIKELY THAT MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
THROUGH MONDAY GENERALLY DIMINISHING TO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE. THERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT LATE IN THE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  91  74  87 /  10  50  40  70
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  92  78  90 /  10  40  30  60
MIAMI            78  93  77  92 /  10  30  20  50
NAPLES           78  89  76  87 /   0  20  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261728
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
128 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
HOT SW-W WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT
CLOUDS PREVAILING. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM STILL NOT TOTALLY
OUT OF THE QUESTION LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PBI AREAS, BUT BECOMING
LESS LIKELY AS DRY/WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE COUNTERACTING THE
HOT SFC TEMPS AND NO ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND. WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 25 KT UNTIL AROUND 00Z. VFR TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH LIGHTER SW-W WINDS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SE UNITED
STATES MOVING INTO ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
COULD SEE PRECIP IN AREA BY END OF THIS FORECAST/18Z MONDAY, BUT
TOO EARLY AND NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOR NOW. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261728
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
128 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
HOT SW-W WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT
CLOUDS PREVAILING. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM STILL NOT TOTALLY
OUT OF THE QUESTION LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PBI AREAS, BUT BECOMING
LESS LIKELY AS DRY/WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE COUNTERACTING THE
HOT SFC TEMPS AND NO ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND. WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 25 KT UNTIL AROUND 00Z. VFR TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH LIGHTER SW-W WINDS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SE UNITED
STATES MOVING INTO ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
COULD SEE PRECIP IN AREA BY END OF THIS FORECAST/18Z MONDAY, BUT
TOO EARLY AND NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOR NOW. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261728
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
128 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
HOT SW-W WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH FEW/SCT
CLOUDS PREVAILING. AN AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TSTM STILL NOT TOTALLY
OUT OF THE QUESTION LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND PBI AREAS, BUT BECOMING
LESS LIKELY AS DRY/WARM AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE COUNTERACTING THE
HOT SFC TEMPS AND NO ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND. WINDS
GUSTING NEAR 25 KT UNTIL AROUND 00Z. VFR TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH LIGHTER SW-W WINDS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE OVER SE UNITED
STATES MOVING INTO ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
COULD SEE PRECIP IN AREA BY END OF THIS FORECAST/18Z MONDAY, BUT
TOO EARLY AND NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE FOR NOW. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261352 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
952 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

...CORRECTED CHANGES TO WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT...

.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND IS
NOW IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME SOME SLIGHT RIDGING. DO PLAN
ON MAKING SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE ROUTINE MORNING UPDATES TO
INCLUDE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM EAST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE
PWAT DROPPING BACK BELOW 1.5" BUT THE LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IS 7.6C/KM WHICH IS QUITE STEEP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHT IS ALSO ABOUT 1.5K FEET LOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO THERE
IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IF A THUNDERSTORM CAN
INDEED DEVELOP GIVEN THE DRIER AIR. THE OTHER INHIBITING FACTOR TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS A STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION WITH ITS
BASE AT 500MB SO EVEN THOUGH THE ACTUAL 500MB TEMPERATURE IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS EARLIER, IT WARMS ABOVE THAT LAYER
COUNTERACTING ITS EFFECTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT. ALSO EARLIER
INCREASED THE WIND ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS AND THOSE STRONGER WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED SO WILL
NOT SHOW ANY WEAKENING UNTIL LATER TODAY.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEP/MODERATE SW
FLOW TODAY WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY, ALONG WITH BREEZY SW WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 20 KTS AT
TIMES. AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON, SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT WILL DEVELOP. LATE DAY STORMS ARE A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY PRIMARILY IN THE PALM BEACH AREA, NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION OF PRECIP IN TAFS BUT SOMETHING WE`LL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON DURING THE DAY. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK HEADS UP ON AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO THE CWF AND
PLACING A SCEC STATEMENT UP FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATER MANAGEMENT TOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SW 15-17 KNOTS FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALONG WITH THE OBSERVATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH
OF THE REGION TODAY AND A RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE WITH THE
LOWER 90S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO
AREAS AND NEAR THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE HEAT INDEX RANGING FROM AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HAZY SKIES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE 00Z GFS AROUND
00Z ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND BY TUESDAY 18Z A DEEP
SURFACE LOW WAS FORECAST IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT COULD BE A
RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NEITHER THE SREF OR THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL HAD THIS FEATURE. BUT PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SREF AND 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY GUIDANCE INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING TO NEAR NORTH FLORIDA WITH
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
IS FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH...BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST WITH A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  76  88  72 /  20  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  95  78  90  77 /  10  10  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  91  76 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           89  79  91  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261352
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
952 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND IS
NOW IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME SOME SLIGHT RIDGING. DO PLAN
ON MAKING SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE ROUTINE MORNING UPDATES TO
INCLUDE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM EAST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE
PWAT DROPPING BACK BELOW 1.5" BUT THE LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IS 7.6C/KM WHICH IS QUITE STEEP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHT IS ALSO ABOUT 15K FEET LOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO THERE
IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IF A THUNDERSTORM CAN
INDEED DEVELOP GIVEN THE DRIER AIR. THE OTHER INHIBITING FACTOR TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS A STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION WITH ITS
BASE AT 500MB SO EVEN THOUGH THE ACTUAL 500MB TEMPERATURE IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS EARLIER, IT WARMS ABOVE THAT LAYER
COUNTERACTING ITS EFFECTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT. ALSO EARLIER
INCREASED THE WIND ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS AND THOSE STRONGER WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED SO WILL
NOT SHOW ANY WEAKENING UNTIL LATER TODAY.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEP/MODERATE SW
FLOW TODAY WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY, ALONG WITH BREEZY SW WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 20 KTS AT
TIMES. AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON, SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT WILL DEVELOP. LATE DAY STORMS ARE A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY PRIMARILY IN THE PALM BEACH AREA, NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION OF PRECIP IN TAFS BUT SOMETHING WE`LL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON DURING THE DAY. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK HEADS UP ON AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO THE CWF AND
PLACING A SCEC STATEMENT UP FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATER MANAGEMENT TOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SW 15-17 KNOTS FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALONG WITH THE OBSERVATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH
OF THE REGION TODAY AND A RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE WITH THE
LOWER 90S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO
AREAS AND NEAR THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE HEAT INDEX RANGING FROM AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HAZY SKIES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE 00Z GFS AROUND
00Z ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND BY TUESDAY 18Z A DEEP
SURFACE LOW WAS FORECAST IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT COULD BE A
RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NEITHER THE SREF OR THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL HAD THIS FEATURE. BUT PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SREF AND 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY GUIDANCE INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING TO NEAR NORTH FLORIDA WITH
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
IS FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH...BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST WITH A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  76  88  72 /  20  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  95  78  90  77 /  10  10  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  91  76 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           89  79  91  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261352
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
952 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND IS
NOW IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME SOME SLIGHT RIDGING. DO PLAN
ON MAKING SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE ROUTINE MORNING UPDATES TO
INCLUDE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM EAST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE
PWAT DROPPING BACK BELOW 1.5" BUT THE LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IS 7.6C/KM WHICH IS QUITE STEEP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHT IS ALSO ABOUT 15K FEET LOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO THERE
IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IF A THUNDERSTORM CAN
INDEED DEVELOP GIVEN THE DRIER AIR. THE OTHER INHIBITING FACTOR TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS A STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION WITH ITS
BASE AT 500MB SO EVEN THOUGH THE ACTUAL 500MB TEMPERATURE IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS EARLIER, IT WARMS ABOVE THAT LAYER
COUNTERACTING ITS EFFECTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT. ALSO EARLIER
INCREASED THE WIND ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS AND THOSE STRONGER WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED SO WILL
NOT SHOW ANY WEAKENING UNTIL LATER TODAY.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEP/MODERATE SW
FLOW TODAY WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY, ALONG WITH BREEZY SW WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 20 KTS AT
TIMES. AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON, SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT WILL DEVELOP. LATE DAY STORMS ARE A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY PRIMARILY IN THE PALM BEACH AREA, NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION OF PRECIP IN TAFS BUT SOMETHING WE`LL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON DURING THE DAY. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK HEADS UP ON AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO THE CWF AND
PLACING A SCEC STATEMENT UP FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATER MANAGEMENT TOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SW 15-17 KNOTS FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALONG WITH THE OBSERVATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH
OF THE REGION TODAY AND A RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE WITH THE
LOWER 90S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO
AREAS AND NEAR THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE HEAT INDEX RANGING FROM AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HAZY SKIES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE 00Z GFS AROUND
00Z ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND BY TUESDAY 18Z A DEEP
SURFACE LOW WAS FORECAST IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT COULD BE A
RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NEITHER THE SREF OR THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL HAD THIS FEATURE. BUT PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SREF AND 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY GUIDANCE INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING TO NEAR NORTH FLORIDA WITH
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
IS FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH...BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST WITH A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  76  88  72 /  20  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  95  78  90  77 /  10  10  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  91  76 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           89  79  91  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261352 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
952 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

...CORRECTED CHANGES TO WET BULB ZERO HEIGHT...

.UPDATE...
CURRENTLY, SURFACE RIDGE HAS BEEN DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH AND IS
NOW IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS WITH A MODERATE SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL
FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A ZONAL MID LEVEL FLOW ALSO
CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME SOME SLIGHT RIDGING. DO PLAN
ON MAKING SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE ROUTINE MORNING UPDATES TO
INCLUDE A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A STRONG THUNDERSTORM EAST OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING HAS TAKEN PLACE SINCE YESTERDAY WITH THE
PWAT DROPPING BACK BELOW 1.5" BUT THE LOW TO MID LEVEL INSTABILITY
IS 7.6C/KM WHICH IS QUITE STEEP FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WET BULB
ZERO HEIGHT IS ALSO ABOUT 1.5K FEET LOWER THAN YESTERDAY SO THERE
IS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SMALL HAIL IF A THUNDERSTORM CAN
INDEED DEVELOP GIVEN THE DRIER AIR. THE OTHER INHIBITING FACTOR TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS A STRONG MID LEVEL INVERSION WITH ITS
BASE AT 500MB SO EVEN THOUGH THE ACTUAL 500MB TEMPERATURE IS
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN 24 HOURS EARLIER, IT WARMS ABOVE THAT LAYER
COUNTERACTING ITS EFFECTS ON THE ENVIRONMENT. ALSO EARLIER
INCREASED THE WIND ON LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST
TRENDS AND THOSE STRONGER WINDS CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED SO WILL
NOT SHOW ANY WEAKENING UNTIL LATER TODAY.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEP/MODERATE SW
FLOW TODAY WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY, ALONG WITH BREEZY SW WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 20 KTS AT
TIMES. AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON, SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT WILL DEVELOP. LATE DAY STORMS ARE A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY PRIMARILY IN THE PALM BEACH AREA, NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION OF PRECIP IN TAFS BUT SOMETHING WE`LL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON DURING THE DAY. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK HEADS UP ON AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO THE CWF AND
PLACING A SCEC STATEMENT UP FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATER MANAGEMENT TOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SW 15-17 KNOTS FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALONG WITH THE OBSERVATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH
OF THE REGION TODAY AND A RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE WITH THE
LOWER 90S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO
AREAS AND NEAR THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE HEAT INDEX RANGING FROM AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HAZY SKIES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE 00Z GFS AROUND
00Z ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND BY TUESDAY 18Z A DEEP
SURFACE LOW WAS FORECAST IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT COULD BE A
RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NEITHER THE SREF OR THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL HAD THIS FEATURE. BUT PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SREF AND 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY GUIDANCE INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING TO NEAR NORTH FLORIDA WITH
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
IS FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH...BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST WITH A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  76  88  72 /  20  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  95  78  90  77 /  10  10  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  91  76 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           89  79  91  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
736 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEP/MODERATE SW
FLOW TODAY WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY, ALONG WITH BREEZY SW WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 20 KTS AT
TIMES. AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON, SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT WILL DEVELOP. LATE DAY STORMS ARE A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY PRIMARILY IN THE PALM BEACH AREA, NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION OF PRECIP IN TAFS BUT SOMETHING WE`LL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON DURING THE DAY. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK HEADS UP ON AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO THE CWF AND
PLACING A SCEC STATEMENT UP FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATER MANAGEMENT TOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SW 15-17 KNOTS FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALONG WITH THE OBSERVATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH
OF THE REGION TODAY AND A RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE WITH THE
LOWER 90S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO
AREAS AND NEAR THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE HEAT INDEX RANGING FROM AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HAZY SKIES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE 00Z GFS AROUND
00Z ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND BY TUESDAY 18Z A DEEP
SURFACE LOW WAS FORECAST IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT COULD BE A
RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NEITHER THE SREF OR THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL HAD THIS FEATURE. BUT PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SREF AND 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY GUIDANCE INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING TO NEAR NORTH FLORIDA WITH
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
IS FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH...BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST WITH A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  76  88  72 /  20  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  95  78  90  77 /  10  10  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  91  76 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           89  79  91  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
736 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEP/MODERATE SW
FLOW TODAY WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY, ALONG WITH BREEZY SW WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 20 KTS AT
TIMES. AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON, SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT WILL DEVELOP. LATE DAY STORMS ARE A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY PRIMARILY IN THE PALM BEACH AREA, NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION OF PRECIP IN TAFS BUT SOMETHING WE`LL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON DURING THE DAY. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK HEADS UP ON AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO THE CWF AND
PLACING A SCEC STATEMENT UP FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATER MANAGEMENT TOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SW 15-17 KNOTS FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALONG WITH THE OBSERVATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH
OF THE REGION TODAY AND A RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE WITH THE
LOWER 90S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO
AREAS AND NEAR THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE HEAT INDEX RANGING FROM AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HAZY SKIES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE 00Z GFS AROUND
00Z ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND BY TUESDAY 18Z A DEEP
SURFACE LOW WAS FORECAST IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT COULD BE A
RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NEITHER THE SREF OR THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL HAD THIS FEATURE. BUT PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SREF AND 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY GUIDANCE INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING TO NEAR NORTH FLORIDA WITH
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
IS FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH...BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST WITH A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  76  88  72 /  20  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  95  78  90  77 /  10  10  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  91  76 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           89  79  91  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
736 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEP/MODERATE SW
FLOW TODAY WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY, ALONG WITH BREEZY SW WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 20 KTS AT
TIMES. AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON, SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT WILL DEVELOP. LATE DAY STORMS ARE A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY PRIMARILY IN THE PALM BEACH AREA, NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION OF PRECIP IN TAFS BUT SOMETHING WE`LL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON DURING THE DAY. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK HEADS UP ON AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO THE CWF AND
PLACING A SCEC STATEMENT UP FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATER MANAGEMENT TOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SW 15-17 KNOTS FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALONG WITH THE OBSERVATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH
OF THE REGION TODAY AND A RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE WITH THE
LOWER 90S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO
AREAS AND NEAR THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE HEAT INDEX RANGING FROM AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HAZY SKIES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE 00Z GFS AROUND
00Z ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND BY TUESDAY 18Z A DEEP
SURFACE LOW WAS FORECAST IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT COULD BE A
RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NEITHER THE SREF OR THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL HAD THIS FEATURE. BUT PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SREF AND 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY GUIDANCE INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING TO NEAR NORTH FLORIDA WITH
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
IS FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH...BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST WITH A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  76  88  72 /  20  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  95  78  90  77 /  10  10  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  91  76 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           89  79  91  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 261136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
736 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND DEEP/MODERATE SW
FLOW TODAY WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOR A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY, ALONG WITH BREEZY SW WINDS GUSTING TO OVER 20 KTS AT
TIMES. AS TEMPERATURES HEAT UP INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON, SCT
CLOUDS AROUND 4000 FT WILL DEVELOP. LATE DAY STORMS ARE A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY PRIMARILY IN THE PALM BEACH AREA, NOT ENOUGH TO
WARRANT MENTION OF PRECIP IN TAFS BUT SOMETHING WE`LL KEEP A CLOSE
EYE ON DURING THE DAY. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK HEADS UP ON AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO THE CWF AND
PLACING A SCEC STATEMENT UP FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATER MANAGEMENT TOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SW 15-17 KNOTS FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALONG WITH THE OBSERVATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH
OF THE REGION TODAY AND A RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE WITH THE
LOWER 90S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO
AREAS AND NEAR THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE HEAT INDEX RANGING FROM AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HAZY SKIES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE 00Z GFS AROUND
00Z ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND BY TUESDAY 18Z A DEEP
SURFACE LOW WAS FORECAST IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT COULD BE A
RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NEITHER THE SREF OR THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL HAD THIS FEATURE. BUT PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SREF AND 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY GUIDANCE INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING TO NEAR NORTH FLORIDA WITH
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
IS FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH...BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST WITH A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  76  88  72 /  20  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  95  78  90  77 /  10  10  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  91  76 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           89  79  91  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261129
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK HEADS UP ON AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO THE CWF AND
PLACING A SCEC STATEMENT UP FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATER MANAGEMENT TOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SW 15-17 KNOTS FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALONG WITH THE OBSERVATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH
OF THE REGION TODAY AND A RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE WITH THE
LOWER 90S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO
AREAS AND NEAR THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE HEAT INDEX RANGING FROM AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HAZY SKIES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE 00Z GFS AROUND
00Z ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND BY TUESDAY 18Z A DEEP
SURFACE LOW WAS FORECAST IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT COULD BE A
RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NEITHER THE SREF OR THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL HAD THIS FEATURE. BUT PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SREF AND 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY GUIDANCE INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING TO NEAR NORTH FLORIDA WITH
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
IS FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH...BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST WITH A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  76  88  72 /  20  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  95  78  90  77 /  10  10  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  91  76 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           89  79  91  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 261129
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...
JUST A QUICK HEADS UP ON AN EARLY MORNING UPDATE TO THE CWF AND
PLACING A SCEC STATEMENT UP FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE SOUTH FLORIDA
WATER MANAGEMENT TOWERS HAVE BEEN REPORTING SW 15-17 KNOTS FOR
THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS WHICH IS IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS ALONG WITH THE OBSERVATION AT SETTLEMENT POINT.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH
OF THE REGION TODAY AND A RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE WITH THE
LOWER 90S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO
AREAS AND NEAR THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE HEAT INDEX RANGING FROM AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HAZY SKIES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE 00Z GFS AROUND
00Z ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND BY TUESDAY 18Z A DEEP
SURFACE LOW WAS FORECAST IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT COULD BE A
RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NEITHER THE SREF OR THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL HAD THIS FEATURE. BUT PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SREF AND 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY GUIDANCE INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING TO NEAR NORTH FLORIDA WITH
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
IS FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH...BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST WITH A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  76  88  72 /  20  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  95  78  90  77 /  10  10  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  91  76 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           89  79  91  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260815
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH
OF THE REGION TODAY AND A RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE WITH THE
LOWER 90S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO
AREAS AND NEAR THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE HEAT INDEX RANGING FROM AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HAZY SKIES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE 00Z GFS AROUND
00Z ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND BY TUESDAY 18Z A DEEP
SURFACE LOW WAS FORECAST IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT COULD BE A
RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NEITHER THE SREF OR THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL HAD THIS FEATURE. BUT PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SREF AND 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY GUIDANCE INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING TO NEAR NORTH FLORIDA WITH
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
IS FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH...BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST WITH A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  76  88  72 /  20  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  95  78  90  77 /  10  10  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  91  76 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           89  79  91  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260815
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES EARLY THIS MORNING INCLUDE A SURFACE
RIDGE EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPRESS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THE COMBINATION OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH
OF THE REGION TODAY AND A RIDGE AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND EXPECTED MAINLY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
THE LATEST TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD REACH NEAR RECORD LEVELS FOR THIS DATE WITH THE
LOWER 90S TO MID 90S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST METRO
AREAS AND NEAR THE MID 90S IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN THE HEAT INDEX RANGING FROM AROUND 100 TO 104 DEGREES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR AND ATLANTIC COAST METRO AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON.

SMOKE FROM FIRES IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF AND MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALLY HAZY SKIES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THERE WAS CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK IN THE 00Z GFS AROUND
00Z ON TUESDAY IN THE NORTHERN GULF AND BY TUESDAY 18Z A DEEP
SURFACE LOW WAS FORECAST IN THE EASTERN GULF BUT COULD BE A
RESULT OF THE CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK. NEITHER THE SREF OR THE 00Z
ECMWF MODEL HAD THIS FEATURE. BUT PREVIOUS GFS RUNS WERE IN BASIC
AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT SREF AND 00Z ECMWF DEPICTING DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

BY WEDNESDAY GUIDANCE INDICATES A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW AND
DEVELOPING FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING TO NEAR NORTH FLORIDA WITH
DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE CONTINUING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY A GRADUAL DRYING TREND
IS FORECAST WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH...BUT THERE
CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...

SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS
TODAY WITH WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS GENERALLY IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE EXCEPT FOR THE OFF SHORE WATERS TO THE EAST OF
PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE 15 TO 20 KNOTS IS FORECAST WITH A
PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THERE WILL
CONTINUE TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST WITH A COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DEVELOPING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  76  88  72 /  20  20  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  95  78  90  77 /  10  10  40  30
MIAMI            95  78  91  76 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           89  79  91  73 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 260632
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
232 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15
KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE
APRIL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
YIELDING A LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO
90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT
800MB. STILL WILL EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON BOOMERS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AT 6.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS AND PWAT AT OVER 1.5" WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL
YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SO THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EAST
COAST TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S AND WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE. THAT KIND OF HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE VERTICAL MOTION AND EVEN WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. SO AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SOUTHERLY WIND
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  75  89  73 /  10  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  78  89  76 /  10   0  50  20
MIAMI            94  77  90  76 /  10   0  40  20
NAPLES           88  76  86  74 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 260632
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
232 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15
KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE
APRIL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
YIELDING A LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO
90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT
800MB. STILL WILL EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON BOOMERS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AT 6.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS AND PWAT AT OVER 1.5" WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL
YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SO THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EAST
COAST TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S AND WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE. THAT KIND OF HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE VERTICAL MOTION AND EVEN WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. SO AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SOUTHERLY WIND
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  75  89  73 /  10  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  78  89  76 /  10   0  50  20
MIAMI            94  77  90  76 /  10   0  40  20
NAPLES           88  76  86  74 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 260632
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
232 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL INTO MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE TO 15
KTS BY LATE MORNING...THEN DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE
APRIL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
YIELDING A LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO
90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT
800MB. STILL WILL EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON BOOMERS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AT 6.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS AND PWAT AT OVER 1.5" WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL
YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SO THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EAST
COAST TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S AND WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE. THAT KIND OF HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE VERTICAL MOTION AND EVEN WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. SO AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SOUTHERLY WIND
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  75  89  73 /  10  10  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  78  89  76 /  10   0  50  20
MIAMI            94  77  90  76 /  10   0  40  20
NAPLES           88  76  86  74 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252325
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
725 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENDED EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS WANED WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE PALM BEACH COAST. STILL AN ISOLATED TSTORM POSSIBLE OFF THE
PALM BEACHES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A TRANQUIL, MUGGY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD AND THE EXPECTATION OF MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/FOCUSING
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO AREA. ALSO, SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN E-W FASHION WITH DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN IN DOWNTOWN MIAMI.
SO THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED
LOCALES IN METRO SE FLORIDA WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL BEFORE THE
CONVECTION WANES EARLY THIS EVENING. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE
APRIL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
YIELDING A LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO
90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT
800MB. STILL WILL EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON BOOMERS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AT 6.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS AND PWAT AT OVER 1.5" WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL
YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SO THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EAST
COAST TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S AND WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE. THAT KIND OF HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE VERTICAL MOTION AND EVEN WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. SO AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SOUTHERLY WIND
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  93  75  89 /  20  10  10  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  93  78  89 /  20  10   0  50
MIAMI            76  94  77  90 /  20  10   0  40
NAPLES           78  88  76  86 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 252325
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
725 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENDED EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS WANED WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE PALM BEACH COAST. STILL AN ISOLATED TSTORM POSSIBLE OFF THE
PALM BEACHES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A TRANQUIL, MUGGY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD AND THE EXPECTATION OF MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/FOCUSING
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO AREA. ALSO, SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN E-W FASHION WITH DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN IN DOWNTOWN MIAMI.
SO THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED
LOCALES IN METRO SE FLORIDA WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL BEFORE THE
CONVECTION WANES EARLY THIS EVENING. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE
APRIL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
YIELDING A LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO
90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT
800MB. STILL WILL EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON BOOMERS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AT 6.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS AND PWAT AT OVER 1.5" WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL
YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SO THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EAST
COAST TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S AND WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE. THAT KIND OF HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE VERTICAL MOTION AND EVEN WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. SO AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SOUTHERLY WIND
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  93  75  89 /  20  10  10  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  93  78  89 /  20  10   0  50
MIAMI            76  94  77  90 /  20  10   0  40
NAPLES           78  88  76  86 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252325
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
725 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ENDED EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 627 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS WANED WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE PALM BEACH COAST. STILL AN ISOLATED TSTORM POSSIBLE OFF THE
PALM BEACHES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A TRANQUIL, MUGGY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD AND THE EXPECTATION OF MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/FOCUSING
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO AREA. ALSO, SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN E-W FASHION WITH DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN IN DOWNTOWN MIAMI.
SO THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED
LOCALES IN METRO SE FLORIDA WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL BEFORE THE
CONVECTION WANES EARLY THIS EVENING. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE
APRIL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
YIELDING A LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO
90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT
800MB. STILL WILL EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON BOOMERS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AT 6.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS AND PWAT AT OVER 1.5" WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL
YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SO THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EAST
COAST TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S AND WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE. THAT KIND OF HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE VERTICAL MOTION AND EVEN WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. SO AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SOUTHERLY WIND
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  93  75  89 /  20  10  10  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  93  78  89 /  20  10   0  50
MIAMI            76  94  77  90 /  20  10   0  40
NAPLES           78  88  76  86 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 252227
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
627 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS WANED WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE PALM BEACH COAST. STILL AN ISOLATED TSTORM POSSIBLE OFF THE
PALM BEACHES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A TRANQUIL, MUGGY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD AND THE EXPECTATION OF MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/FOCUSING
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO AREA. ALSO, SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN E-W FASHION WITH DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN IN DOWNTOWN MIAMI.
SO THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED
LOCALES IN METRO SE FLORIDA WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL BEFORE THE
CONVECTION WANES EARLY THIS EVENING. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE
APRIL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
YIELDING A LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO
90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT
800MB. STILL WILL EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON BOOMERS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AT 6.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS AND PWAT AT OVER 1.5" WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL
YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SO THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EAST
COAST TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S AND WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE. THAT KIND OF HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE VERTICAL MOTION AND EVEN WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. SO AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SOUTHERLY WIND
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  93  75  89 /  20  10  10  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  93  78  89 /  20  10   0  50
MIAMI            76  94  77  90 /  20  10   0  40
NAPLES           78  88  76  86 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252227
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
627 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS WANED WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE PALM BEACH COAST. STILL AN ISOLATED TSTORM POSSIBLE OFF THE
PALM BEACHES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A TRANQUIL, MUGGY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD AND THE EXPECTATION OF MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/FOCUSING
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO AREA. ALSO, SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN E-W FASHION WITH DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN IN DOWNTOWN MIAMI.
SO THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED
LOCALES IN METRO SE FLORIDA WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL BEFORE THE
CONVECTION WANES EARLY THIS EVENING. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE
APRIL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
YIELDING A LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO
90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT
800MB. STILL WILL EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON BOOMERS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AT 6.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS AND PWAT AT OVER 1.5" WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL
YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SO THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EAST
COAST TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S AND WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE. THAT KIND OF HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE VERTICAL MOTION AND EVEN WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. SO AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SOUTHERLY WIND
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  93  75  89 /  20  10  10  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  93  78  89 /  20  10   0  50
MIAMI            76  94  77  90 /  20  10   0  40
NAPLES           78  88  76  86 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 252227
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
627 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS WANED WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE PALM BEACH COAST. STILL AN ISOLATED TSTORM POSSIBLE OFF THE
PALM BEACHES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A TRANQUIL, MUGGY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD AND THE EXPECTATION OF MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/FOCUSING
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO AREA. ALSO, SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN E-W FASHION WITH DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN IN DOWNTOWN MIAMI.
SO THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED
LOCALES IN METRO SE FLORIDA WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL BEFORE THE
CONVECTION WANES EARLY THIS EVENING. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE
APRIL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
YIELDING A LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO
90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT
800MB. STILL WILL EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON BOOMERS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AT 6.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS AND PWAT AT OVER 1.5" WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL
YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SO THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EAST
COAST TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S AND WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE. THAT KIND OF HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE VERTICAL MOTION AND EVEN WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. SO AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SOUTHERLY WIND
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  93  75  89 /  20  10  10  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  93  78  89 /  20  10   0  50
MIAMI            76  94  77  90 /  20  10   0  40
NAPLES           78  88  76  86 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 252227
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
627 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS WANED WITH JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG
THE PALM BEACH COAST. STILL AN ISOLATED TSTORM POSSIBLE OFF THE
PALM BEACHES THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, A TRANQUIL, MUGGY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD AND THE EXPECTATION OF MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/FOCUSING
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO AREA. ALSO, SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN E-W FASHION WITH DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN IN DOWNTOWN MIAMI.
SO THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED
LOCALES IN METRO SE FLORIDA WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL BEFORE THE
CONVECTION WANES EARLY THIS EVENING. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE
APRIL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
YIELDING A LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO
90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT
800MB. STILL WILL EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON BOOMERS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AT 6.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS AND PWAT AT OVER 1.5" WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL
YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SO THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EAST
COAST TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S AND WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE. THAT KIND OF HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE VERTICAL MOTION AND EVEN WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. SO AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SOUTHERLY WIND
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  93  75  89 /  20  10  10  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  93  78  89 /  20  10   0  50
MIAMI            76  94  77  90 /  20  10   0  40
NAPLES           78  88  76  86 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 252006
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD AND THE EXPECTATION OF MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/FOCUSING
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO AREA. ALSO, SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN E-W FASHION WITH DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN IN DOWNTOWN MIAMI.
SO THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED
LOCALES IN METRO SE FLORIDA WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL BEFORE THE
CONVECTION WANES EARLY THIS EVENING. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE
APRIL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
YIELDING A LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO
90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT
800MB. STILL WILL EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON BOOMERS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AT 6.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS AND PWAT AT OVER 1.5" WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL
YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SO THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EAST
COAST TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S AND WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE. THAT KIND OF HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE VERTICAL MOTION AND EVEN WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. SO AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SOUTHERLY WIND
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  93  75  89 /  20  10  10  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  93  78  89 /  20  10   0  50
MIAMI            76  94  77  90 /  20  10   0  40
NAPLES           78  88  76  86 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 252006
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
406 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MIAMI-DADE AND
BROWARD AND THE EXPECTATION OF MORE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/FOCUSING
FURTHER NORTH INTO THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO AREA. ALSO, SOME OF
THE ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING IN AN E-W FASHION WITH DOPPLER RADAR
SHOWING NEAR 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVING FALLEN IN DOWNTOWN MIAMI.
SO THERE IS A RISK FOR ISOLATED STREET FLOODING IN POORLY DRAINED
LOCALES IN METRO SE FLORIDA WITH THE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. A
STRONG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS WELL BEFORE THE
CONVECTION WANES EARLY THIS EVENING. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE
APRIL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
YIELDING A LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO
90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT
800MB. STILL WILL EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON BOOMERS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AT 6.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS AND PWAT AT OVER 1.5" WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL
YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SO THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EAST
COAST TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S AND WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE. THAT KIND OF HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE VERTICAL MOTION AND EVEN WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. SO AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS.

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SOUTHERLY WIND
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  93  75  89 /  20  10  10  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  93  78  89 /  20  10   0  50
MIAMI            76  94  77  90 /  20  10   0  40
NAPLES           78  88  76  86 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251835
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE
APRIL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
YIELDING A LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO
90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT
800MB. STILL WILL EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON BOOMERS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AT 6.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS AND PWAT AT OVER 1.5" WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL
YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SO THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EAST
COAST TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S AND WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE. THAT KIND OF HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE VERTICAL MOTION AND EVEN WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. SO AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SOUTHERLY WIND
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  93  75  89 /  10  10  10  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  93  78  89 /  10  10   0  50
MIAMI            76  94  77  90 /  10  10   0  40
NAPLES           78  88  76  86 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251835
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE
APRIL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
YIELDING A LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO
90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT
800MB. STILL WILL EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON BOOMERS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AT 6.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS AND PWAT AT OVER 1.5" WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL
YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SO THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EAST
COAST TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S AND WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE. THAT KIND OF HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE VERTICAL MOTION AND EVEN WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. SO AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SOUTHERLY WIND
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  93  75  89 /  10  10  10  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  93  78  89 /  10  10   0  50
MIAMI            76  94  77  90 /  10  10   0  40
NAPLES           78  88  76  86 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251835
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...
CURRENTLY, THE MID TO UPPER FLOW IS NEARLY ZONAL WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.5C WHICH IS WARMER THAN TYPICALLY SEEN IN LATE
APRIL. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC TO JUST SOUTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
YIELDING A LOW LEVEL LIGHT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH FLOW OF AIR WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT QUITE CLIMBED TO
90F AND THIS IS NEEDED TO BREAK THE LOW LEVEL CAP WITH ITS BASE AT
800MB. STILL WILL EXPECT SOME LATE AFTERNOON BOOMERS TO DEVELOP WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OVER THE INTERIOR AND TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST METRO REGION. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RUNNING NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR AT 6.5C/KM. THIS COMBINED WITH THE ABOVE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS AND PWAT AT OVER 1.5" WOULD SUGGEST A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

ON SUNDAY, WHILE THE UPPER FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH THE SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTH TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS PLACING SOUTH FLORIDA
UNDER DEEP SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AND ALSO FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME MID LEVEL DRYING WITH PWAT DROPPING TO AROUND 1.5". THIS WILL
YIELD PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SO THAT ALONG WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW EAST
COAST TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH THE MID 90S AND WILL BE FLIRTING
WITH RECORD MAXIMUMS FOR THE DATE. THAT KIND OF HEATING WILL
CERTAINLY CAUSE VERTICAL MOTION AND EVEN WITH SOME MID LEVEL
DRYING THIS WILL LEAD TO A FEW POSSIBLE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT
THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN AS
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OCCURS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES. SO AGAIN, INCREASED MOISTURE ALONG WITH MARGINAL MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP WESTERLY FLOW THERE WILL BE HIGHER CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST
AREAS.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-SATURDAY)...
THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON HOW THIS WILL AFFECT
SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER FROM THE MIDDLE INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
THEY BOTH SHOW A SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CUTTING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHERN STATES AND THEN SLOWLY DRIFT IT TOWARDS THE EAST. THE
ECMWF DEPICTS THIS LOW GETTING PICKED UP BY A NORTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED LATE SEASON COOL FRONT MOVING THROUGH SOUTH
FLORIDA ON THURSDAY. THIS WOULD DECREASE RAIN CHANCES THEN FOR
LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS. THE GFS
HOWEVER SHOWS THE CUT OFF LOW GETTING LEFT BEHIND AND NOT GETTING
KICKED OUT TO THE EAST BECOMING AN ELONGATED TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN STATES LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS SCENARIO WOULD STALL THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING HIGH RAIN CHANCES
FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID, BOTH MODELS SHOW AN
UNSETTLED PERIOD FOR SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEK WITH POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH HIGHER THAN TYPICAL FOR LATE APRIL AND POSSIBLY PERSISTING
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST DIRECTION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AT SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS
DIMINISHING ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT SLACKENS. A SOUTHERLY WIND
OF AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. WITH A MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WIND DIRECTION, SEAS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE 4 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  93  75  89 /  10  10  10  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  93  78  89 /  10  10   0  50
MIAMI            76  94  77  90 /  10  10   0  40
NAPLES           78  88  76  86 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 251727
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
127 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA INTERIOR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO OVERCOME THE STRONG
CAPPING ALOFT. EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AS
THEY MOVE EAST TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO BETWEEN
ABOUT 20Z-00Z. INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES, WITH
PROBABLY LESS THAN HALF OF THE AREA OBSERVING ANY ACTUAL TS
CONDITIONS. SAME APPLIES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND/OR LONG DURATION THROUGH 00Z. S-SE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON (EXCEPT SOLID SEABREEZE AT KAPF) WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SW AFTER 00Z AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES DOMINATES THE
PATTERN. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251727
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
127 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA INTERIOR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO OVERCOME THE STRONG
CAPPING ALOFT. EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AS
THEY MOVE EAST TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO BETWEEN
ABOUT 20Z-00Z. INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES, WITH
PROBABLY LESS THAN HALF OF THE AREA OBSERVING ANY ACTUAL TS
CONDITIONS. SAME APPLIES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND/OR LONG DURATION THROUGH 00Z. S-SE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON (EXCEPT SOLID SEABREEZE AT KAPF) WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SW AFTER 00Z AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES DOMINATES THE
PATTERN. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 251727
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
127 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA INTERIOR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO OVERCOME THE STRONG
CAPPING ALOFT. EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AS
THEY MOVE EAST TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO BETWEEN
ABOUT 20Z-00Z. INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES, WITH
PROBABLY LESS THAN HALF OF THE AREA OBSERVING ANY ACTUAL TS
CONDITIONS. SAME APPLIES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND/OR LONG DURATION THROUGH 00Z. S-SE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON (EXCEPT SOLID SEABREEZE AT KAPF) WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SW AFTER 00Z AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES DOMINATES THE
PATTERN. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251727
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
127 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH FLORIDA INTERIOR EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY BEGINNING TO OVERCOME THE STRONG
CAPPING ALOFT. EXPECT SHOWERS/TSTMS TO BE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE AS
THEY MOVE EAST TOWARDS AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO BETWEEN
ABOUT 20Z-00Z. INCLUDED VCTS AT ALL EAST COAST SITES, WITH
PROBABLY LESS THAN HALF OF THE AREA OBSERVING ANY ACTUAL TS
CONDITIONS. SAME APPLIES FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD NOT BE
WIDESPREAD AND/OR LONG DURATION THROUGH 00Z. S-SE WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON (EXCEPT SOLID SEABREEZE AT KAPF) WILL BECOME
PREDOMINANTLY SW AFTER 00Z AND THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES DOMINATES THE
PATTERN. WINDS MAY BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 251405
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1005 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING UPDATE, BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA WITH A NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKY ALTHOUGH THE CU FIELD
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THE SKY GRIDS ARE
A LITTLE HIGH SO WILL ADJUST THE FIRST COUPLE OF GRIDS DOWNWARD.
THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG CAP AT ABOUT 800MB BUT WITH
STRONG HEATING TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING ANY LIFTED PARCEL SHOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IS THEN QUITE UNSTABLE ABOVE THIS LAYER WITH
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT SO PLAN TO MENTION STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK WITH A
GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO STORM MOTION WILL BE A
SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING
CONVECTION BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER NOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND THEN A SLOW DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN BROWARD INTO PALM BEACH COUNTIES
WHICH MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST. SO DO NOT PLAN TO CHANGE THIS
PHILOSOPHY OF THINKING.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN TO SW THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES STRENGTHENS AND INFLUENCES THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEA BREEZES BY 16Z-17Z WILL MODIFY THE WIND
PATTERN, WITH SOLID SW WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND 00Z.
AIRMASS NOT AS MOIST AS THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE GULF COAST DRY AND PUSH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR EAST COAST TERMINALS IN AND
NEAR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. INDICATING VCTS AT PBI-FLL
WHERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER, BUT MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED LATER TODAY TO INCLUDE MIA AREA IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STABLE WEATHER AS
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
KEYS.

FOR TODAY...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A STABILIZING ROLE FOR TODAY...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PWAT COULD REMAIN AROUND 1.7
INCHES. SO WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE FORECAST
HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.

FOR SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL HAVE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A GENERALLY
STABLE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BY MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ROUGHLY OFF THE COAST OF
JACKSONVILLE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING TO ERODE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTH FLORIDA
WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS FORECAST SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN A CONSIDERABLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GULF SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS AND THE
ATLANTIC SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH ATLANTIC WINDS IN
THE 12 TO 17 KNOT RANGE AND IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WIND FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH THE GUIDANCE FORECASTING A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  93  75 /  30  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  93  77 /  20   0  20  20
MIAMI            91  76  93  77 /  20   0  10  10
NAPLES           90  78  89  75 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251405
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1005 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
WILL MAKE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MORNING UPDATE, BUT
OVERALL THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE RIDGE
CURRENTLY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TIP OF THE
PENINSULA WITH A NEARLY CLOUD FREE SKY ALTHOUGH THE CU FIELD
BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS. THE SKY GRIDS ARE
A LITTLE HIGH SO WILL ADJUST THE FIRST COUPLE OF GRIDS DOWNWARD.
THE 12Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS A STRONG CAP AT ABOUT 800MB BUT WITH
STRONG HEATING TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING ANY LIFTED PARCEL SHOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE CAP BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE IS THEN QUITE UNSTABLE ABOVE THIS LAYER WITH
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT SO PLAN TO MENTION STRONG WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE
WITH THE MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS. LOW LEVEL FLOW IS VERY WEAK WITH A
GENERAL WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO STORM MOTION WILL BE A
SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST. THE HRRR HAS BEEN SHOWING
CONVECTION BEGINNING SHORTLY AFTER NOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY AND THEN A SLOW DRIFT BACK TOWARDS THE EAST
COAST ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN BROWARD INTO PALM BEACH COUNTIES
WHICH MATCHES THE CURRENT FORECAST. SO DO NOT PLAN TO CHANGE THIS
PHILOSOPHY OF THINKING.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 736 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN TO SW THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES STRENGTHENS AND INFLUENCES THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEA BREEZES BY 16Z-17Z WILL MODIFY THE WIND
PATTERN, WITH SOLID SW WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND 00Z.
AIRMASS NOT AS MOIST AS THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE GULF COAST DRY AND PUSH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR EAST COAST TERMINALS IN AND
NEAR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. INDICATING VCTS AT PBI-FLL
WHERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER, BUT MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED LATER TODAY TO INCLUDE MIA AREA IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. /MOLLEDA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STABLE WEATHER AS
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
KEYS.

FOR TODAY...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A STABILIZING ROLE FOR TODAY...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PWAT COULD REMAIN AROUND 1.7
INCHES. SO WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE FORECAST
HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.

FOR SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL HAVE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A GENERALLY
STABLE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BY MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ROUGHLY OFF THE COAST OF
JACKSONVILLE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING TO ERODE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTH FLORIDA
WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS FORECAST SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN A CONSIDERABLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GULF SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS AND THE
ATLANTIC SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH ATLANTIC WINDS IN
THE 12 TO 17 KNOT RANGE AND IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WIND FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH THE GUIDANCE FORECASTING A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  93  75 /  30  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  93  77 /  20   0  20  20
MIAMI            91  76  93  77 /  20   0  10  10
NAPLES           90  78  89  75 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 251136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
736 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN TO SW THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES STRENGTHENS AND INFLUENCES THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEA BREEZES BY 16Z-17Z WILL MODIFY THE WIND
PATTERN, WITH SOLID SW WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND 00Z.
AIRMASS NOT AS MOIST AS THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE GULF COAST DRY AND PUSH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR EAST COAST TERMINALS IN AND
NEAR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. INDICATING VCTS AT PBI-FLL
WHERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER, BUT MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED LATER TODAY TO INCLUDE MIA AREA IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STABLE WEATHER AS
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
KEYS.

FOR TODAY...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A STABILIZING ROLE FOR TODAY...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PWAT COULD REMAIN AROUND 1.7
INCHES. SO WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE FORECAST
HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.

FOR SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL HAVE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A GENERALLY
STABLE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BY MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ROUGHLY OFF THE COAST OF
JACKSONVILLE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING TO ERODE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTH FLORIDA
WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS FORECAST SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN A CONSIDERABLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GULF SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS AND THE
ATLANTIC SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH ATLANTIC WINDS IN
THE 12 TO 17 KNOT RANGE AND IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WIND FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH THE GUIDANCE FORECASTING A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  93  75 /  30  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  93  77 /  20   0  20  20
MIAMI            91  76  93  77 /  20   0  10  10
NAPLES           90  78  89  75 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 251136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
736 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST SFC WIND FLOW THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, THEN TO SW THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF
THE EAST COAST MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES STRENGTHENS AND INFLUENCES THE LOCAL
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEA BREEZES BY 16Z-17Z WILL MODIFY THE WIND
PATTERN, WITH SOLID SW WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS BY AROUND 00Z.
AIRMASS NOT AS MOIST AS THE PAST FEW DAYS, BUT STILL ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW WILL KEEP THE GULF COAST DRY AND PUSH ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL, WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR EAST COAST TERMINALS IN AND
NEAR ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. INDICATING VCTS AT PBI-FLL
WHERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER, BUT MAY HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED LATER TODAY TO INCLUDE MIA AREA IF CONVECTION DEVELOPS
FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. /MOLLEDA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 429 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STABLE WEATHER AS
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
KEYS.

FOR TODAY...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A STABILIZING ROLE FOR TODAY...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PWAT COULD REMAIN AROUND 1.7
INCHES. SO WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE FORECAST
HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.

FOR SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL HAVE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A GENERALLY
STABLE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BY MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ROUGHLY OFF THE COAST OF
JACKSONVILLE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING TO ERODE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTH FLORIDA
WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS FORECAST SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN A CONSIDERABLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GULF SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS AND THE
ATLANTIC SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH ATLANTIC WINDS IN
THE 12 TO 17 KNOT RANGE AND IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WIND FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH THE GUIDANCE FORECASTING A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  93  75 /  30  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  93  77 /  20   0  20  20
MIAMI            91  76  93  77 /  20   0  10  10
NAPLES           90  78  89  75 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 250829
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
429 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STABLE WEATHER AS
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
KEYS.

FOR TODAY...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A STABILIZING ROLE FOR TODAY...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PWAT COULD REMAIN AROUND 1.7
INCHES. SO WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE FORECAST
HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.

FOR SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL HAVE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A GENERALLY
STABLE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BY MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ROUGHLY OFF THE COAST OF
JACKSONVILLE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING TO ERODE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTH FLORIDA
WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS FORECAST SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN A CONSIDERABLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GULF SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS AND THE
ATLANTIC SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH ATLANTIC WINDS IN
THE 12 TO 17 KNOT RANGE AND IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WIND FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH THE GUIDANCE FORECASTING A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  93  75 /  30  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  93  77 /  20   0  20  20
MIAMI            91  76  93  77 /  20   0  10  10
NAPLES           90  78  89  75 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 250829
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
429 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A WEAK AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE AND AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STABLE WEATHER AS
RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES NEARLY CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
KEYS.

FOR TODAY...WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AS THE DAY PROGRESS. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PLAY A STABILIZING ROLE FOR TODAY...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PWAT COULD REMAIN AROUND 1.7
INCHES. SO WITH AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SEA BREEZES
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SURFACE
CONVERGENCE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION SHOULD BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. THUS THE FORECAST
HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND NORTHERN PENINSULA WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE EXPECTED ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE STABILIZING EFFECT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE.

FOR SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AS A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THIS SYNOPTIC SET UP WILL HAVE DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE REMAINING NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A GENERALLY
STABLE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

FOR MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BY MONDAY THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO BE ROUGHLY OFF THE COAST OF
JACKSONVILLE WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
THIS WILL BRING MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STARTING TO ERODE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FORECAST. THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD TO NORTH FLORIDA
WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF.
THIS FORECAST SCENARIO WILL MAINTAIN A CONSIDERABLE CHANCE OF
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS FORECAST INTO THE LATER PART
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE GENERALLY EASTERLY AROUND 10
KNOTS EARLY THIS MORNING BUT ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON WITH GULF SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS AND THE
ATLANTIC SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET. TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO TRANSITION TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION WITH ATLANTIC WINDS IN
THE 12 TO 17 KNOT RANGE AND IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE FOR THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

UNCERTAINTY WILL CONTINUE IN THE WIND FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS WITH THE GUIDANCE FORECASTING A BROAD SURFACE LOW
ENTERING THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD INTO NORTH FLORIDA.
WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE MAY BE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  75  93  75 /  30  10  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  78  93  77 /  20   0  20  20
MIAMI            91  76  93  77 /  20   0  10  10
NAPLES           90  78  89  75 /  10   0  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 250547
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FAIRLY QUIET TAFS AS ISOLATED PM SHOWERS DONT WARRANT MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST 10 KTS BY LATE
MORNING. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO SW AT
NAPLES. AFTER SUNSET...SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND. EVEN SO,
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS AS THE COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP IN
PLACE. BUT, HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

ALSO, WITH THE HIGH BUILDING, THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY REACHING INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD, OR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
THAT MOVES OF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY, TO DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA AREA, LIKELY BEING HARD TO
DEFINE AS IT ENTERS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER, WEAK LOW WILL FORM OVER THE GULF AND LOOKS TO
PUSH WHATEVER BOUNDARY IS LEFT, BACK TO THE NORTH. AS IT DOES, IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOW WILL DEEPEN, AND
MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN
THE WARM SECTOR, AND INCREASE CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY
FOR CONVECTION. THE MODELS SLIGHTLY DIVERGE BY THURSDAY, ONLY IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY. EITHER WAY, THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, KEEPING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN
BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR FEET, WITH THE HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
GULF STREAM, OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  75  93  77 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  93  78 /  20   0  10  10
MIAMI            90  76  94  78 /  10   0  10  10
NAPLES           88  79  90  78 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 250547
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FAIRLY QUIET TAFS AS ISOLATED PM SHOWERS DONT WARRANT MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST 10 KTS BY LATE
MORNING. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO SW AT
NAPLES. AFTER SUNSET...SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND. EVEN SO,
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS AS THE COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP IN
PLACE. BUT, HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

ALSO, WITH THE HIGH BUILDING, THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY REACHING INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD, OR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
THAT MOVES OF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY, TO DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA AREA, LIKELY BEING HARD TO
DEFINE AS IT ENTERS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER, WEAK LOW WILL FORM OVER THE GULF AND LOOKS TO
PUSH WHATEVER BOUNDARY IS LEFT, BACK TO THE NORTH. AS IT DOES, IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOW WILL DEEPEN, AND
MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN
THE WARM SECTOR, AND INCREASE CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY
FOR CONVECTION. THE MODELS SLIGHTLY DIVERGE BY THURSDAY, ONLY IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY. EITHER WAY, THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, KEEPING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN
BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR FEET, WITH THE HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
GULF STREAM, OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  75  93  77 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  93  78 /  20   0  10  10
MIAMI            90  76  94  78 /  10   0  10  10
NAPLES           88  79  90  78 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 250547
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.AVIATION...
FAIRLY QUIET TAFS AS ISOLATED PM SHOWERS DONT WARRANT MENTION. VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST 10 KTS BY LATE
MORNING. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE WILL TRANSITION WINDS TO SW AT
NAPLES. AFTER SUNSET...SW WINDS AROUND 5 KTS EXPECTED.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND. EVEN SO,
MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS AS THE COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP IN
PLACE. BUT, HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

ALSO, WITH THE HIGH BUILDING, THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY REACHING INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD, OR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
THAT MOVES OF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY, TO DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA AREA, LIKELY BEING HARD TO
DEFINE AS IT ENTERS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER, WEAK LOW WILL FORM OVER THE GULF AND LOOKS TO
PUSH WHATEVER BOUNDARY IS LEFT, BACK TO THE NORTH. AS IT DOES, IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOW WILL DEEPEN, AND
MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN
THE WARM SECTOR, AND INCREASE CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY
FOR CONVECTION. THE MODELS SLIGHTLY DIVERGE BY THURSDAY, ONLY IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY. EITHER WAY, THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, KEEPING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN
BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR FEET, WITH THE HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
GULF STREAM, OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  75  93  77 /  20  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  93  78 /  20   0  10  10
MIAMI            90  76  94  78 /  10   0  10  10
NAPLES           88  79  90  78 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 250010
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
810 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MIAMI-DADE ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH VFR PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS ON SAT
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT THEN SE NEAR 10 KT ON
SAT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT KAPF LATE. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 650 MB. THIS HAS
KEPT THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
SHOWERS. AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN THIS AFTERNOON, IT MAY ERODE
THE CAP ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND. EVEN SO, MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS AS THE COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP IN
PLACE. BUT, HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

ALSO, WITH THE HIGH BUILDING, THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY REACHING INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD, OR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
THAT MOVES OF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY, TO DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA AREA, LIKELY BEING HARD TO
DEFINE AS IT ENTERS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER, WEAK LOW WILL FORM OVER THE GULF AND LOOKS TO
PUSH WHATEVER BOUNDARY IS LEFT, BACK TO THE NORTH. AS IT DOES, IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOW WILL DEEPEN, AND
MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN
THE WARM SECTOR, AND INCREASE CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY
FOR CONVECTION. THE MODELS SLIGHTLY DIVERGE BY THURSDAY, ONLY IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY. EITHER WAY, THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, KEEPING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

AVIATION...
THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
19Z AND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. KAPF TAF SITE
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZES.
SO HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THE TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
TONIGHT ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN
BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR FEET, WITH THE HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
GULF STREAM, OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  75  93 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  87  78  93 /  20  20   0  10
MIAMI            75  90  76  94 /  30  10   0  10
NAPLES           74  88  79  90 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 250010
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
810 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS MIAMI-DADE ARE FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH VFR PREVAILING OVERNIGHT. SHRA/TSRA ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY INLAND FROM THE TERMINALS ON SAT
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT THEN SE NEAR 10 KT ON
SAT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY AT KAPF LATE. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 650 MB. THIS HAS
KEPT THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
SHOWERS. AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN THIS AFTERNOON, IT MAY ERODE
THE CAP ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND. EVEN SO, MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS AS THE COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP IN
PLACE. BUT, HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

ALSO, WITH THE HIGH BUILDING, THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY REACHING INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD, OR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
THAT MOVES OF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY, TO DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA AREA, LIKELY BEING HARD TO
DEFINE AS IT ENTERS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER, WEAK LOW WILL FORM OVER THE GULF AND LOOKS TO
PUSH WHATEVER BOUNDARY IS LEFT, BACK TO THE NORTH. AS IT DOES, IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOW WILL DEEPEN, AND
MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN
THE WARM SECTOR, AND INCREASE CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY
FOR CONVECTION. THE MODELS SLIGHTLY DIVERGE BY THURSDAY, ONLY IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY. EITHER WAY, THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, KEEPING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

AVIATION...
THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
19Z AND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. KAPF TAF SITE
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZES.
SO HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THE TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
TONIGHT ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN
BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR FEET, WITH THE HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
GULF STREAM, OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  75  93 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  87  78  93 /  20  20   0  10
MIAMI            75  90  76  94 /  30  10   0  10
NAPLES           74  88  79  90 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 241919
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
319 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 650 MB. THIS HAS
KEPT THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
SHOWERS. AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN THIS AFTERNOON, IT MAY ERODE
THE CAP ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND. EVEN SO, MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS AS THE COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP IN
PLACE. BUT, HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

ALSO, WITH THE HIGH BUILDING, THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY REACHING INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD, OR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
THAT MOVES OF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY, TO DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA AREA, LIKELY BEING HARD TO
DEFINE AS IT ENTERS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER, WEAK LOW WILL FORM OVER THE GULF AND LOOKS TO
PUSH WHATEVER BOUNDARY IS LEFT, BACK TO THE NORTH. AS IT DOES, IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOW WILL DEEPEN, AND
MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN
THE WARM SECTOR, AND INCREASE CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY
FOR CONVECTION. THE MODELS SLIGHTLY DIVERGE BY THURSDAY, ONLY IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY. EITHER WAY, THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, KEEPING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
19Z AND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. KAPF TAF SITE
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZES.
SO HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THE TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
TONIGHT ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN
BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR FEET, WITH THE HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
GULF STREAM, OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  75  93 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  87  78  93 /  20  20   0  10
MIAMI            75  90  76  94 /  20  10   0  10
NAPLES           74  88  79  90 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 241919
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
319 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE IS THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS
MORNINGS SOUNDING SHOWED A STRONG CAP AT AROUND 650 MB. THIS HAS
KEPT THE WEATHER MOSTLY QUIET, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
SHOWERS. AS THE SEA BREEZE KICKS IN THIS AFTERNOON, IT MAY ERODE
THE CAP ENOUGH TO ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THIS WEEKEND. EVEN SO, MODELS
ARE INDICATING SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH
THIS AS THE COULD BE UNDERESTIMATING THE STRENGTH OF THE CAP IN
PLACE. BUT, HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF THESE IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

ALSO, WITH THE HIGH BUILDING, THE FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST,
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE VERY WARM THIS WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS
SUNDAY REACHING INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR NEAR RECORD, OR RECORD BREAKING TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

BY MONDAY, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM,
THAT MOVES OF THE CAROLINA COAST ON SUNDAY, TO DRAG A COLD FRONT
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL AND DISSIPATE
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA AREA, LIKELY BEING HARD TO
DEFINE AS IT ENTERS SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD PROVIDE
ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

BY TUESDAY, ANOTHER, WEAK LOW WILL FORM OVER THE GULF AND LOOKS TO
PUSH WHATEVER BOUNDARY IS LEFT, BACK TO THE NORTH. AS IT DOES, IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY, THE LOW WILL DEEPEN, AND
MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS WILL PLACE SOUTH FLORIDA IN
THE WARM SECTOR, AND INCREASE CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY ON WEDNESDAY
FOR CONVECTION. THE MODELS SLIGHTLY DIVERGE BY THURSDAY, ONLY IN
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES AWAY. EITHER WAY, THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA, KEEPING CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY IN THE FORECAST ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
19Z AND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. KAPF TAF SITE
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZES.
SO HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THE TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
TONIGHT ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
QUIET THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE WIND WILL TURN SOUTHWEST THIS
WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY WARM ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY, BRINGING THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THE SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE WEEKEND WILL ALLOW SEAS TO REMAIN
BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR FEET, WITH THE HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE
GULF STREAM, OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  75  93 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  87  78  93 /  20  20   0  10
MIAMI            75  90  76  94 /  20  10   0  10
NAPLES           74  88  79  90 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241740 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
19Z AND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. KAPF TAF SITE
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZES.
SO HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THE TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
TONIGHT ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE TWEAKS TO TODAYS FORECAST. MAIN CHANGES ARE THE POPS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS. WITH HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
FOR THEIR OCCURRENCE TODAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INVERSION ON
BOTH THE MFL AND TBW SOUNDINGS AT ABOUT 650MB. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IT SHOULD ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES STICK
AROUND, IT COULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SO, THIS DOES
STILL LEAVE SOME QUESTION, THUS POPS JUST INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY, AT AROUND 60 PERCENT, RATHER THAN HIGHER. THE WEEKEND
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A DRYING TREND.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WESTERLY THIS MORNING OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES...WHILE KAPF TAF SITE REMAINS IN A WESTERLY
DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL ALSO BE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE LOW JUST EAST
OF THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AN
ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY.

FOR TODAY...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE AND WILL TEND TO HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...FORECAST PWAT`S
ARE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND TRAPPED LARGELY IN THE THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY.
GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH A
LATER START IN THE AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED...THIS IS REFLECTED BY
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AS WELL. BUT CHANCES OF A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF SUPPORTING DYNAMICS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IN GENERAL A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST WITH THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF REMAINING IN PLACE
AND IN GENERAL THERE WILL BE LOWER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND PALM
BEACH COUNTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A FAIRLY
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING UP NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES A BROAD SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO
SHOULD MAINTAIN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WILL VARY IN DIRECTION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GULF SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
WITH ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST BEYOND THE
WEEKEND WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING A BROAD
SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND
THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TO JUST NORTH OF NORTH FLORIDA. LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD THERE
WILL LIKELY BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS A
CLEARER CONSENSUS A FEW DAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  88  74  93 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  88  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            75  88  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           74  88  77  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 241740 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS BETWEEN
19Z AND 20Z THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. KAPF TAF SITE
WILL REMAIN WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD
BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZES.
SO HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THE TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS
WILL THEN DECREASE TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHEAST FOR
TONIGHT ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO
REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

UPDATE...
HAVE MADE TWEAKS TO TODAYS FORECAST. MAIN CHANGES ARE THE POPS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS. WITH HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
FOR THEIR OCCURRENCE TODAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INVERSION ON
BOTH THE MFL AND TBW SOUNDINGS AT ABOUT 650MB. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IT SHOULD ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES STICK
AROUND, IT COULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SO, THIS DOES
STILL LEAVE SOME QUESTION, THUS POPS JUST INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY, AT AROUND 60 PERCENT, RATHER THAN HIGHER. THE WEEKEND
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A DRYING TREND.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WESTERLY THIS MORNING OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES...WHILE KAPF TAF SITE REMAINS IN A WESTERLY
DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL ALSO BE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE LOW JUST EAST
OF THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AN
ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY.

FOR TODAY...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE AND WILL TEND TO HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...FORECAST PWAT`S
ARE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND TRAPPED LARGELY IN THE THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY.
GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH A
LATER START IN THE AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED...THIS IS REFLECTED BY
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AS WELL. BUT CHANCES OF A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF SUPPORTING DYNAMICS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IN GENERAL A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST WITH THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF REMAINING IN PLACE
AND IN GENERAL THERE WILL BE LOWER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND PALM
BEACH COUNTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A FAIRLY
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING UP NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES A BROAD SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO
SHOULD MAINTAIN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WILL VARY IN DIRECTION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GULF SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
WITH ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST BEYOND THE
WEEKEND WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING A BROAD
SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND
THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TO JUST NORTH OF NORTH FLORIDA. LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD THERE
WILL LIKELY BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS A
CLEARER CONSENSUS A FEW DAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  88  74  93 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  88  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            75  88  76  94 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           74  88  77  88 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241412
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE TWEAKS TO TODAYS FORECAST. MAIN CHANGES ARE THE POPS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS. WITH HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
FOR THEIR OCCURRENCE TODAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INVERSION ON
BOTH THE MFL AND TBW SOUNDINGS AT ABOUT 650MB. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IT SHOULD ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES STICK
AROUND, IT COULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SO, THIS DOES
STILL LEAVE SOME QUESTION, THUS POPS JUST INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY, AT AROUND 60 PERCENT, RATHER THAN HIGHER. THE WEEKEND
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A DRYING TREND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WESTERLY THIS MORNING OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES...WHILE KAPF TAF SITE REMAINS IN A WESTERLY
DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL ALSO BE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE LOW JUST EAST
OF THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AN
ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY.

FOR TODAY...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE AND WILL TEND TO HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...FORECAST PWAT`S
ARE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND TRAPPED LARGELY IN THE THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY.
GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH A
LATER START IN THE AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED...THIS IS REFLECTED BY
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AS WELL. BUT CHANCES OF A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF SUPPORTING DYNAMICS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IN GENERAL A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST WITH THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF REMAINING IN PLACE
AND IN GENERAL THERE WILL BE LOWER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND PALM
BEACH COUNTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A FAIRLY
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING UP NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES A BROAD SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO
SHOULD MAINTAIN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WILL VARY IN DIRECTION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GULF SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
WITH ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST BEYOND THE
WEEKEND WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING A BROAD
SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND
THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TO JUST NORTH OF NORTH FLORIDA. LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD THERE
WILL LIKELY BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS A
CLEARER CONSENSUS A FEW DAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  72  88  74 /  40  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  76  88  76 /  50  10  10  10
MIAMI            89  75  88  76 /  60  20  10  10
NAPLES           88  74  88  77 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241412
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE TWEAKS TO TODAYS FORECAST. MAIN CHANGES ARE THE POPS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS. WITH HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
FOR THEIR OCCURRENCE TODAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INVERSION ON
BOTH THE MFL AND TBW SOUNDINGS AT ABOUT 650MB. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IT SHOULD ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES STICK
AROUND, IT COULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SO, THIS DOES
STILL LEAVE SOME QUESTION, THUS POPS JUST INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY, AT AROUND 60 PERCENT, RATHER THAN HIGHER. THE WEEKEND
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A DRYING TREND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WESTERLY THIS MORNING OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES...WHILE KAPF TAF SITE REMAINS IN A WESTERLY
DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL ALSO BE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE LOW JUST EAST
OF THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AN
ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY.

FOR TODAY...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE AND WILL TEND TO HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...FORECAST PWAT`S
ARE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND TRAPPED LARGELY IN THE THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY.
GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH A
LATER START IN THE AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED...THIS IS REFLECTED BY
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AS WELL. BUT CHANCES OF A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF SUPPORTING DYNAMICS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IN GENERAL A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST WITH THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF REMAINING IN PLACE
AND IN GENERAL THERE WILL BE LOWER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND PALM
BEACH COUNTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A FAIRLY
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING UP NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES A BROAD SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO
SHOULD MAINTAIN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WILL VARY IN DIRECTION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GULF SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
WITH ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST BEYOND THE
WEEKEND WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING A BROAD
SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND
THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TO JUST NORTH OF NORTH FLORIDA. LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD THERE
WILL LIKELY BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS A
CLEARER CONSENSUS A FEW DAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  72  88  74 /  40  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  76  88  76 /  50  10  10  10
MIAMI            89  75  88  76 /  60  20  10  10
NAPLES           88  74  88  77 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 241412
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
HAVE MADE TWEAKS TO TODAYS FORECAST. MAIN CHANGES ARE THE POPS FOR
THE SOUTHEAST METRO AREAS. WITH HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
FOR THEIR OCCURRENCE TODAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN INVERSION ON
BOTH THE MFL AND TBW SOUNDINGS AT ABOUT 650MB. NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IT SHOULD ERODE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF IT DOES STICK
AROUND, IT COULD INHIBIT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SO, THIS DOES
STILL LEAVE SOME QUESTION, THUS POPS JUST INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY, AT AROUND 60 PERCENT, RATHER THAN HIGHER. THE WEEKEND
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK FOR A DRYING TREND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY WESTERLY THIS MORNING OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES WITH SPEEDS AROUND 5 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN
BECOME NORTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES...WHILE KAPF TAF SITE REMAINS IN A WESTERLY
DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE TAF SITES. THEREFORE...VCSH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER ALL OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE CEILING AND VIS
WILL ALSO BE IN VFR CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH A SURFACE LOW JUST EAST
OF THE NORTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. AT THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS AN
ELONGATED RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION ARE CURRENTLY
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY.

FOR TODAY...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER THAN THE SEASONAL
AVERAGE AND WILL TEND TO HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. ON THE OTHER HAND...FORECAST PWAT`S
ARE AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND TRAPPED LARGELY IN THE THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY.
GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS FOR SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALTHOUGH A
LATER START IN THE AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED...THIS IS REFLECTED BY
THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE AS WELL. BUT CHANCES OF A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM IS NOT EXPECTED DUE TO THE WARM MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES AND THE LACK OF SUPPORTING DYNAMICS.

FOR THE WEEKEND...IN GENERAL A DRYING TREND IS FORECAST WITH THE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF REMAINING IN PLACE
AND IN GENERAL THERE WILL BE LOWER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE
REGION. WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FAVOR MAINLY ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND PALM
BEACH COUNTY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES A FAIRLY
COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN SETTING UP NEXT WEEK. ON MONDAY DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF AND
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA WITH ZONAL MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHICH
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING TO THE REGION. BY TUESDAY...THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES A BROAD SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A MID TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS FORECAST SCENARIO
SHOULD MAINTAIN DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
THE GREATEST COVERAGE ON WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WINDS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 15 KNOTS OR LESS AND WILL VARY IN DIRECTION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD. GULF SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 2 FEET
WITH ATLANTIC AND GULF STREAM SEAS 2 TO 4 FEET.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST BEYOND THE
WEEKEND WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATING A BROAD
SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO ENTER THE NORTHERN GULF ON TUESDAY AND
THEN BY WEDNESDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD
TO JUST NORTH OF NORTH FLORIDA. LEADING UP TO THIS PERIOD THERE
WILL LIKELY BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST UNTIL THERE IS A
CLEARER CONSENSUS A FEW DAYS OUT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  72  88  74 /  40  10  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  76  88  76 /  50  10  10  10
MIAMI            89  75  88  76 /  60  20  10  10
NAPLES           88  74  88  77 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....60/BD





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