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000
FXUS62 KMFL 200836
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
436 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS
THE NW BAHAMAS AT THIS TIME. EXTENSIVE FIELD OF LOW STRATUS AND STRATOCU
FIELD BEHIND THE FRONT HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS HOLDING TEMPS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST
OF THE GEORGIA COAST ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST TODAY DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE DOWN THE STATE WITH LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY AND SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ERODING
DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW
80S BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND NORMAL GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE OR TWO. FOR EXTENDED
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND BOTH GLOBAL
MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) AS WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH RATHER UNEVENTFUL OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM AT THIS TIME AND NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST. IN FACT, NO APPRECIATIVE SIGNAL/INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AGAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE WISE, MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT
MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED
CIGS SHOULD STAY JUST IN THE VFR RANGE BUT COULD JUST DROP INTO THE
HIGH END OF THE MVFR RANGE PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RETREAT FURTHER TO
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15-20 KNOTS RANGE TONIGHT MAINLY OFF
THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND SPREAD SOUTH ON MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IN ITSELF WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH
A SWELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AROUND 3 FEET OFF THE
PALM BEACH WATERS AND 2 FEET OFF THE BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE
WATERS TO BRING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET OFF THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF THE BROWARD WATERS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. THEREFORE, SCEC FOR TONIGHT
AND SCA FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER FOR THOSE WATERS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE SWELL WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AT
LEAST TIL LATE TUESDAY OR MIDDLE OF THE WEEK EVEN AFTER PEAKING
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY PART OF TUESDAY RESULTING IN AT LEAST A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AT THE VERY LEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  68  81  67 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  69  82  69 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            80  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           82  65  83  65 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....52/PS
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 200836
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
436 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS
THE NW BAHAMAS AT THIS TIME. EXTENSIVE FIELD OF LOW STRATUS AND STRATOCU
FIELD BEHIND THE FRONT HAS SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF MAINLAND SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT GULF WATERS HOLDING TEMPS HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST
THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST
OF THE GEORGIA COAST ACROSS THE SW ATLANTIC. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES
TO MOVE EAST TODAY DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE DOWN THE STATE WITH LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS GRADUALLY AND SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ERODING
DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE DAY AND TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW
80S BY THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT RANGE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
CONDITIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND BOTH MAX/MIN TEMPS
REMAINING AROUND NORMAL GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE OR TWO. FOR EXTENDED
FORECAST FROM TUESDAY INTO EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEKEND BOTH GLOBAL
MODELS (GFS AND ECMWF) AS WELL AS THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS
PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH RATHER UNEVENTFUL OUTLOOK AT THIS TIME. WEAK
FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES AT A MINIMUM AT THIS TIME AND NOT WORTH MENTIONING IN THE
FORECAST. IN FACT, NO APPRECIATIVE SIGNAL/INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES AGAIN
THROUGH THE PERIOD AT THIS TIME. TEMPERATURE WISE, MAX TEMPS WILL REMAIN
AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING
AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CURRENT
MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDING SOUTH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ASSOCIATED
CIGS SHOULD STAY JUST IN THE VFR RANGE BUT COULD JUST DROP INTO THE
HIGH END OF THE MVFR RANGE PARTICULARLY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
DAY. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RETREAT FURTHER TO
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE 15-20 KNOTS RANGE TONIGHT MAINLY OFF
THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND SPREAD SOUTH ON MONDAY BEFORE BEGINNING
TO SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. THIS IN ITSELF WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION. HOWEVER, THIS WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH
A SWELL THAT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE ATLANTIC WATERS STARTING
TONIGHT AND PEAK MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AROUND 3 FEET OFF THE
PALM BEACH WATERS AND 2 FEET OFF THE BROWARD AND MIAMI DADE
WATERS TO BRING SEAS UP TO 7 FEET OFF THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF THE BROWARD WATERS MAINLY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
BEFORE STARTING TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. THEREFORE, SCEC FOR TONIGHT
AND SCA FOR MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATER FOR THOSE WATERS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE, THE SWELL WILL LINGER ACROSS THE REGION AT
LEAST TIL LATE TUESDAY OR MIDDLE OF THE WEEK EVEN AFTER PEAKING
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY PART OF TUESDAY RESULTING IN AT LEAST A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AT THE VERY LEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  68  81  67 /   0  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  69  82  69 /   0  10  10  10
MIAMI            80  68  83  69 /   0  10  10  10
NAPLES           82  65  83  65 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....52/PS
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 200613
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
213 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CURRENT MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ASSOCIATED CIGS SHOULD STAY JUST IN THE VFR RANGE. WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RETREAT FURTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
EARLIER TODAY THERE WERE CONCERNS THAT SEAS COULD REACH 7 FEET IN
THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS TONIGHT BUT RECENT MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS TO 6 FEET EXPECTED. A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...

THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE ACTIVE START TODAY EXTENDING SSW FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO KEY WEST
AND BREEZY WNW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILLING IN BEHIND IT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY
SHOW A WEST TO EAST TEMP/DP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF
REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE PALM BEACH
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND NORMAL.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DRY PATTERN AND
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS TIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...DRY...WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE.

AG

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A
DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE.

BNB

MARINE...

MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  82  67  83 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  82  70  84 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            68  82  69  84 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           65  82  66  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 200613
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
213 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
CURRENT MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE LOW LEVEL CLOUD SHIELD
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. ASSOCIATED CIGS SHOULD STAY JUST IN THE VFR RANGE. WILL
AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MORNING AT ALL SITES AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO RETREAT FURTHER
TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
EARLIER TODAY THERE WERE CONCERNS THAT SEAS COULD REACH 7 FEET IN
THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS TONIGHT BUT RECENT MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS TO 6 FEET EXPECTED. A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...

THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE ACTIVE START TODAY EXTENDING SSW FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO KEY WEST
AND BREEZY WNW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILLING IN BEHIND IT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY
SHOW A WEST TO EAST TEMP/DP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF
REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE PALM BEACH
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND NORMAL.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DRY PATTERN AND
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS TIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...DRY...WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE.

AG

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A
DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE.

BNB

MARINE...

MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  82  67  83 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  82  70  84 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            68  82  69  84 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           65  82  66  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 192340
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT IS TOO FAST
WITH CURRENT TAF`S MAINTAINING MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. STABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
EARLIER TODAY THERE WERE CONCERNS THAT SEAS COULD REACH 7 FEET IN
THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS TONIGHT BUT RECENT MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS TO 6 FEET EXPECTED. A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...

THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE ACTIVE START TODAY EXTENDING SSW FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO KEY WEST
AND BREEZY WNW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILLING IN BEHIND IT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY
SHOW A WEST TO EAST TEMP/DP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF
REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE PALM BEACH
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND NORMAL.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DRY PATTERN AND
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS TIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...DRY...WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE.

AG

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A
DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE.

BNB


AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...CAN`T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE WEST...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MARINE...

MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  77  67  82 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  79  69  82 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            67  79  68  82 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           64  80  65  82 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 192340
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
740 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER
GUSTS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. THE RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT IS TOO FAST
WITH CURRENT TAF`S MAINTAINING MODERATE WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
FORECAST PERIOD. STABLE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...

UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
EARLIER TODAY THERE WERE CONCERNS THAT SEAS COULD REACH 7 FEET IN
THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS TONIGHT BUT RECENT MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS TO 6 FEET EXPECTED. A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...

THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE ACTIVE START TODAY EXTENDING SSW FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO KEY WEST
AND BREEZY WNW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILLING IN BEHIND IT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY
SHOW A WEST TO EAST TEMP/DP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF
REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE PALM BEACH
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND NORMAL.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DRY PATTERN AND
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS TIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...DRY...WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE.

AG

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A
DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE.

BNB


AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...CAN`T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE WEST...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MARINE...

MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  77  67  82 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  79  69  82 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            67  79  68  82 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           64  80  65  82 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 192157
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
557 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
EARLIER TODAY THERE WERE CONCERNS THAT SEAS COULD REACH 7 FEET IN
THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS TONIGHT BUT RECENT MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS TO 6 FEET EXPECTED. A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...

THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE ACTIVE START TODAY EXTENDING SSW FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO KEY WEST
AND BREEZY WNW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILLING IN BEHIND IT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY
SHOW A WEST TO EAST TEMP/DP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF
REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE PALM BEACH
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND NORMAL.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DRY PATTERN AND
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS TIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...DRY...WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE.

AG

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A
DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE.

BNB


AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...CAN`T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE WEST...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MARINE...

MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  77  67  82 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  79  69  82 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            67  79  68  82 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           64  80  65  82 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 192157
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
557 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...MAINLY FOR THE WINDS ACROSS
THE REGION. REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GENERALLY WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
EARLIER TODAY THERE WERE CONCERNS THAT SEAS COULD REACH 7 FEET IN
THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS TONIGHT BUT RECENT MARINE GUIDANCE
INDICATES SEAS TO 6 FEET EXPECTED. A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL WATERS...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE REMAINING GENERALLY
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 211 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...

THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE ACTIVE START TODAY EXTENDING SSW FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO KEY WEST
AND BREEZY WNW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILLING IN BEHIND IT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY
SHOW A WEST TO EAST TEMP/DP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF
REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE PALM BEACH
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND NORMAL.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DRY PATTERN AND
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS TIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...DRY...WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE.

AG

LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A
DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE.

BNB


AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...CAN`T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE WEST...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MARINE...

MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  77  67  82 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  79  69  82 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            67  79  68  82 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           64  80  65  82 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191811
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
211 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT)...

THE AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE COLD FRONT RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE ACTIVE START TODAY EXTENDING SSW FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO KEY WEST
AND BREEZY WNW FLOW AND DRIER CONDITIONS FILLING IN BEHIND IT ALONG
THE GULF COAST. OBSERVATIONS REFLECT THIS BOUNDARY AND GENERALLY
SHOW A WEST TO EAST TEMP/DP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY FROM THE
GULF COAST TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF
REFLECTIVITIES CONTINUE TO SHOW A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES EAST THIS AFTERNOON TOWARD AND THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC COAST...MAINLY NORTH OF FORT LAUDERDALE TO THE PALM BEACH
COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AND
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING AROUND NORMAL.
THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REFLECTS THIS DRY PATTERN AND
INDICATES THE UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA LIFTING NORTHEAST
THROUGH THIS TIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT...DRY...WILL MOVE SOUTH AND THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY...WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE STATE.

AG

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY-FRIDAY)

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A
DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND UPPER HEIGHTS RISE.

BNB

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW
SHOWERS...HOWEVER...CAN`T BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS TODAY AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EAST ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IT IN THIS PACKAGE.
WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE WEST...THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE NW
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...

MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  77  67  82 /  10  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  79  69  82 /  10  10  10  10
MIAMI            67  79  68  82 /  10  10  10  10
NAPLES           64  80  65  82 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191229 CCC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
829 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...THE TORNADO WATCH 84 HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THIS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEARS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE KEPT A LOW END CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE GLADES...HENDRY...COLLIER...AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. THE TORNADO WATCH
FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SPC HAS ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

POSSIBLE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TAPPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL THEN BE DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
EASTER SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A DRY
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY AS SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING TO 6 FEET ON EASTER SUNDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MORNING...BEFORE
BUILDING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7
FEET.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO BE AT LEAST 7 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY...AND
MENTION A POSSIBLE SCA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  64  80  68 /  40  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  67  81  71 /  40  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  68  82  69 /  40  10  10  10
NAPLES           83  64  80  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191229 CCC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
829 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...THE TORNADO WATCH 84 HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THIS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEARS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE KEPT A LOW END CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE GLADES...HENDRY...COLLIER...AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. THE TORNADO WATCH
FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SPC HAS ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

POSSIBLE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TAPPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL THEN BE DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
EASTER SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A DRY
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY AS SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING TO 6 FEET ON EASTER SUNDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MORNING...BEFORE
BUILDING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7
FEET.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO BE AT LEAST 7 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY...AND
MENTION A POSSIBLE SCA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  64  80  68 /  40  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  67  81  71 /  40  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  68  82  69 /  40  10  10  10
NAPLES           83  64  80  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191214 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
814 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...THE TORNADO WATCH 84 HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THIS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE KEPT A LOW END CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND REMOVE THE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE GLADES...HENDRY...COLLIER...AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. THE TORNADO WATCH
FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SPC HAS ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

POSSIBLE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TAPPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL THEN BE DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
EASTER SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A DRY
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY AS SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING TO 6 FEET ON EASTER SUNDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MORNING...BEFORE
BUILDING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7
FEET.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO BE AT LEAST 7 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY...AND
MENTION A POSSIBLE SCA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  64  80  68 /  40  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  67  81  71 /  40  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  68  82  69 /  40  10  10  10
NAPLES           83  64  80  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191214 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
814 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFFSHORE EARLY
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE...THE TORNADO WATCH 84 HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR SOUTH FLORIDA. THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND THIS
MORNING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL THE FRONT
CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. SO HAVE KEPT A LOW END CHANCE
OF SHOWERS FOR THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS
MORNING...AND REMOVE THE POPS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE GLADES...HENDRY...COLLIER...AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. THE TORNADO WATCH
FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SPC HAS ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

POSSIBLE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TAPPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL THEN BE DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
EASTER SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A DRY
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY AS SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING TO 6 FEET ON EASTER SUNDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MORNING...BEFORE
BUILDING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7
FEET.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO BE AT LEAST 7 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY...AND
MENTION A POSSIBLE SCA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  64  80  68 /  40  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  67  81  71 /  40  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  68  82  69 /  40  10  10  10
NAPLES           83  64  80  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191045 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
645 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE GLADES...HENDRY...COLLIER...AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. THE TORNADO WATCH
FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SPC HAS ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

.POSSIBLE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TAPPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL THEN BE DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
EASTER SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A DRY
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY AS SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING TO 6 FEET ON EASTER SUNDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MORNING...BEFORE
BUILDING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7
FEET.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO BE AT LEAST 7 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY...AND
MENTION A POSSIBLE SCA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  64  80  68 /  50  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  67  81  71 /  60  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  68  82  69 /  50  10  10  10
NAPLES           83  64  80  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191045 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
645 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
THE LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED INTO THE
EASTERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THEREFORE...THE TORNADO WATCH FOR THE GLADES...HENDRY...COLLIER...AND
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. THE TORNADO WATCH
FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

UPDATE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SPC HAS ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

.POSSIBLE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TAPPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL THEN BE DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
EASTER SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A DRY
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY AS SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING TO 6 FEET ON EASTER SUNDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MORNING...BEFORE
BUILDING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7
FEET.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO BE AT LEAST 7 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY...AND
MENTION A POSSIBLE SCA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  64  80  68 /  50  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  67  81  71 /  60  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  68  82  69 /  50  10  10  10
NAPLES           83  64  80  66 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190746 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SPC HAS ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

..POSSIBLE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TAPPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL THEN BE DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
EASTER SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A DRY
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY AS SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING TO 6 FEET ON EASTER SUNDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MORNING...BEFORE
BUILDING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7
FEET.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO BE AT LEAST 7 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY...AND
MENTION A POSSIBLE SCA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  64  80  68 /  50  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  67  81  71 /  50  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  68  82  69 /  50  10  10  10
NAPLES           83  64  80  66 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES.
AM...TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR ALL ATLANTIC WATERS.
GM...TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR ALL GULF WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190746 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SPC HAS ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

..POSSIBLE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TAPPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL THEN BE DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
EASTER SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A DRY
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY AS SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING TO 6 FEET ON EASTER SUNDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MORNING...BEFORE
BUILDING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7
FEET.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO BE AT LEAST 7 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY...AND
MENTION A POSSIBLE SCA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  64  80  68 /  50  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  67  81  71 /  50  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  68  82  69 /  50  10  10  10
NAPLES           83  64  80  66 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR ALL SOUTH FLORIDA COUNTIES.
AM...TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR ALL ATLANTIC WATERS.
GM...TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR ALL GULF WATERS.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 190738 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SPC HAS ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

..POSSIBLE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TAPPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL THEN BE DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
EASTER SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A DRY
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY AS SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING TO 6 FEET ON EASTER SUNDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MORNING...BEFORE
BUILDING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7
FEET.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO BE AT LEAST 7 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY...AND
MENTION A POSSIBLE SCA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  64  80  68 /  50  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  67  81  71 /  50  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  68  82  69 /  50  10  10  10
NAPLES           83  64  80  66 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190738 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL
MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...SPC HAS ISSUED
TORNADO WATCH 84 FOR SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 237 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014/

..POSSIBLE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY...

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TAPPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL THEN BE DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
EASTER SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A DRY
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY AS SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING TO 6 FEET ON EASTER SUNDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MORNING...BEFORE
BUILDING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7
FEET.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO BE AT LEAST 7 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY...AND
MENTION A POSSIBLE SCA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  64  80  68 /  50  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  67  81  71 /  50  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  68  82  69 /  50  10  10  10
NAPLES           83  64  80  66 /  40  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 190637
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
237 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...POSSIBLE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TAPPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL THEN BE DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
EASTER SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.


.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A DRY
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY AS SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING TO 6 FEET ON EASTER SUNDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MORNING...BEFORE
BUILDING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7
FEET.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO BE AT LEAST 7 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY...AND
MENTION A POSSIBLE SCA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  64  80  65 /  40  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  67  81  68 /  40  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  68  82  69 /  40  10  10  10
NAPLES           83  64  80  65 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190637
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
237 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

...POSSIBLE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY
DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY...

.SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
NORTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A COLD FRONT OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
TO MOVE EAST THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY AND INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING
AND PUSH SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
BE STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE THROUGH THIS MORNING...AS A LOW LEVEL JET
OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN TAPPER DOWN THIS
AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. THE WEATHER TONIGHT WILL THEN BE DRY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR
EASTER SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH BEFORE MOVING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY AND PLEASANT
WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.


.LONG TERM...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BE A DRY
COLD FRONT WHICH WILL REINFORCE THE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
THE WINDS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION
TONIGHT INTO EASTER SUNDAY AS SPEEDS WILL BE AROUND 15 KNOTS.

THE SEAS WILL BE LESS THAN 6 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE BUILDING TO 6 FEET ON EASTER SUNDAY. FOR THE
GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET THIS MORNING...BEFORE
BUILDING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AND BY TONIGHT WILL BE 5 TO 7
FEET.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A NORTHEAST SWELL BUILDING INTO THE ATLANTIC
WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK FROM THE NORTH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR THE
ATLANTIC SEAS TO BE AT LEAST 7 FEET BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SO WILL HAVE AT LEAST A SCEC FOR THE GULF WATERS FOR TODAY...AND
MENTION A POSSIBLE SCA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  64  80  65 /  40  10  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  67  81  68 /  40  10  10  10
MIAMI            87  68  82  69 /  40  10  10  10
NAPLES           83  64  80  65 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 190545
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CLUSTERS OF SHRAS AND TSRAS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING BUT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
STILL IN QUESTION...SO COVERED WITH VCSH AT ALL SITES FOR NOW.
WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THEN WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH LIMITED CONVECTION HAS HAPPENED... SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS LOW APPROACHING THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY 06Z AND ENOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION AS OUR AREA REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IF
THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
MOSTLY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY 04Z AND MOVING
EAST REACHING THE EAST COAST BY 08Z.

SO WHATS THE FORECAST? SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
LOW. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS NEEDED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT...THEREFORE
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  63  81  68 /  30  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  67  82  70 /  40   0   0   0
MIAMI            86  68  83  69 /  40   0   0   0
NAPLES           84  61  82  66 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190545
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CLUSTERS OF SHRAS AND TSRAS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING BUT INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS
STILL IN QUESTION...SO COVERED WITH VCSH AT ALL SITES FOR NOW.
WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THEN WESTERLY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH LIMITED CONVECTION HAS HAPPENED... SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS LOW APPROACHING THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY 06Z AND ENOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION AS OUR AREA REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IF
THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
MOSTLY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY 04Z AND MOVING
EAST REACHING THE EAST COAST BY 08Z.

SO WHATS THE FORECAST? SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
LOW. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS NEEDED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT...THEREFORE
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  63  81  68 /  30  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  67  82  70 /  40   0   0   0
MIAMI            86  68  83  69 /  40   0   0   0
NAPLES           84  61  82  66 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 190050
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
850 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH LIMITED CONVECTION HAS HAPPENED... SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS LOW APPROACHING THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY 06Z AND ENOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION AS OUR AREA REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IF
THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
MOSTLY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY 04Z AND MOVING
EAST REACHING THE EAST COAST BY 08Z.

SO WHATS THE FORECAST? SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
LOW. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS NEEDED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT...THEREFORE
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...

LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE
REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS
LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF AND WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...FORECAST TO APPROACH TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 04Z
AND COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 07-08Z WITH
VCTS INDICATED IN THE TAF`S AT THOSE TIMES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SPECIFIC DURING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB


AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  84  63  81 /  50  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  67  82 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            74  86  68  83 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           71  84  61  82 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 190050
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
850 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING.
ALTHOUGH LIMITED CONVECTION HAS HAPPENED... SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GULF WATERS
TONIGHT. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS LOW APPROACHING THE PENINSULA
OVERNIGHT AND MOVING IT ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW...WITH A
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ZONE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BY 06Z AND ENOUGH
VERTICAL MOTION AS OUR AREA REMAINS EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IF
THESE CONDITIONS MATERIALIZE...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE EXPECTED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE LATEST HRRR RUN SHOWS
MOSTLY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WEST COAST BY 04Z AND MOVING
EAST REACHING THE EAST COAST BY 08Z.

SO WHATS THE FORECAST? SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS
LOW. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE WAS NEEDED.
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG ACTIVITY IS STILL PRESENT...THEREFORE
CANNOT RULE OUT THAT POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...

LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE
REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS
LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF AND WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...FORECAST TO APPROACH TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 04Z
AND COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 07-08Z WITH
VCTS INDICATED IN THE TAF`S AT THOSE TIMES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SPECIFIC DURING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB


AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  84  63  81 /  50  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  67  82 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            74  86  68  83 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           71  84  61  82 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190018
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...

LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE
REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS
LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF AND WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...FORECAST TO APPROACH TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 04Z
AND COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 07-08Z WITH
VCTS INDICATED IN THE TAF`S AT THOSE TIMES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SPECIFIC DURING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB


AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  74  84  63 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  87  67 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            83  74  86  68 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           84  71  84  61 /  30  60  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 190018
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...

LINGERING SHOWERS THIS EVENING ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE LAKE
REGION. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE 18Z TAF FORECAST. WHILE THERE IS
LIMITED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
DIG INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF AND WITH A POSSIBLE AREA OF
CONVECTION AHEAD OF IT...FORECAST TO APPROACH TERMINAL KAPF AROUND 04Z
AND COULD APPROACH THE EAST COAST TERMINALS AROUND 07-08Z WITH
VCTS INDICATED IN THE TAF`S AT THOSE TIMES. THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN JUST HOW ORGANIZED THE CONVECTION WILL BE DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE
POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. TIMING OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE SPECIFIC DURING THE 06Z TAF
ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB


AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  74  84  63 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  74  87  67 /  20  50  40   0
MIAMI            83  74  86  68 /  20  50  40   0
NAPLES           84  71  84  61 /  30  60  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....17/ERA
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB

&&

.AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  84  63  81 /  50  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  67  82 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            74  86  68  83 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           71  84  61  82 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 181818
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
218 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
TONIGHT DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AND HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE GULF. THE LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED A FAIRLY
PRONOUNCED SQUALL LINE WITHIN 60-100 NM WEST OF NAPLES. THE LATEST
HRRR AND WRF MODELS HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL WITH THE CURRENT
TRENDS AND GENERALLY INDICATE A NARROW SQUALL LINE CONTINUING
EASTWARD AND HOLDING TOGETHER AS IT MOVES ASHORE FROM NAPLES TO
THE LAKE REGION BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
(SPC) HAS INCLUDED THIS AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.
THIS LINE IS THEN PROJECTED TO CONTINUE EASTWARD TOWARD THE EAST
COAST FROM 6Z TO 10Z, THEN BEGINNING TO PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST BY
OR AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH SPC HAS INCLUDED
NAPLES TO THE LAKE IN THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR
TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF OUR LOCAL AREA ACROSS
CENTRAL/NCNTRAL FLORIDA. FLOODING SHOULDN`T BE AN ISSUE DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE EXPECTED WITH THIS NARROW LINE AS IT QUICKLY
TRAVERSES THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST.

85/AG

.SHORT TERM...(SATURDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT)...

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH
DRIER AIR AND NW FLOW FILLING IN SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LATEST
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE INDICATES CONDITIONS TRENDING BACK TO AROUND
NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL INLAND LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYER RIDGE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

85/AG

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

BNB

&&

.AVIATION...

LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WAS MOVING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THIS FIRST LINE
WILL NOT MAKE IT INTO KAPF...BUT THAT A SECOND LINE OF CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN 03-06Z AND THEN MOVE EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SO THIS
IS REFLECTED IN THE VCTS TIMING IN THE TAFS. FOR THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO VEER MORE TO THE SOUTH. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME POCKETS OF MVFR CIGS AT
2.5KFT ARE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION NEAR THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO VEER ON SATURDAY...WITH SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WINDS 10-
15 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MARINE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING WITH NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED TO FILL IN
BEHIND IT SATURDAY. HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE GULF WATERS...THEN
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY. MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD OVER THE REGION. A MODERATE NORTHERLY
SWELL WILL BE EXPECTED TO FILL IN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS MONDAY.
THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS FOR THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THIS
TIME EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  74  84  63  81 /  50  30  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  87  67  82 /  50  40   0   0
MIAMI            74  86  68  83 /  50  40   0   0
NAPLES           71  84  61  82 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181451
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1051 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR CHANGES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES TO A HIGH RISK TODAY BASED
ON THE LATEST CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS
FRONT EXTENDING SSW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF MOBILE/FL
PANHANDLE AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY...WHICH
COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
REFLECTS THIS AND GENERALLY DOESN`T INDICATE MUCH DEVELOPING
...EVEN ALONG THE MAIN SQUALL LINE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FROM MID/LATE THIS
EVENING (NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION) THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY
MORNING (EAST COAST AREAS 2AM - DAYBREAK). DESPITE THE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE REMAINS A NON-
ZERO THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THINGS EVOLVE TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST FROM THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF FROM THE CONVECTION WILL KEEP BKN/OVC CIGS FROM
10-25KFT. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER
14-15Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM...AND
THIS AFFECTS THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO BEGIN AFFECTING KAPF WILL BE BETWEEN 02-04Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
.DRIER EASTER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT DRIER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

A SQUALL LINE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.

EASTER WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE GOING DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 1O TO 15
KNOTS TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE AROUND 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND PUT UP A
SCEC...WHILE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM SEAS REMAIN IN
SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  64 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  87  66 /  20  50  30  10
MIAMI            85  75  87  67 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           86  70  80  63 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181451
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1051 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF SOME MINOR CHANGES...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE
REMAINS ON TRACK. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO UPDATE THE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES TO A HIGH RISK TODAY BASED
ON THE LATEST CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN FOCUS REMAINS ON
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A
COLD FRONT PROJECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS
FRONT EXTENDING SSW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SOUTH OF MOBILE/FL
PANHANDLE AND A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EAST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
PLENTY OF DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST INTO THE AREA TODAY...WHICH
COULD BE THE LIMITING FACTOR REGARDING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL
REFLECTS THIS AND GENERALLY DOESN`T INDICATE MUCH DEVELOPING
...EVEN ALONG THE MAIN SQUALL LINE LATER TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE
LATEST WRF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A FAIRLY PRONOUNCED
SQUALL LINE MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA FROM MID/LATE THIS
EVENING (NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION) THROUGH DAYBREAK SATURDAY
MORNING (EAST COAST AREAS 2AM - DAYBREAK). DESPITE THE LIMITED
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THESE MODEL DIFFERENCES...THERE REMAINS A NON-
ZERO THREAT FOR OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING
AND CONDITIONS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS THINGS EVOLVE TODAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 756 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST FROM THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF FROM THE CONVECTION WILL KEEP BKN/OVC CIGS FROM
10-25KFT. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER
14-15Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM...AND
THIS AFFECTS THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO BEGIN AFFECTING KAPF WILL BE BETWEEN 02-04Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

.STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
.DRIER EASTER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT DRIER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

A SQUALL LINE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.

EASTER WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE GOING DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 1O TO 15
KNOTS TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE AROUND 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND PUT UP A
SCEC...WHILE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM SEAS REMAIN IN
SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  64 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  87  66 /  20  50  30  10
MIAMI            85  75  87  67 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           86  70  80  63 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 181156
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
756 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST FROM THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF FROM THE CONVECTION WILL KEEP BKN/OVC CIGS FROM
10-25KFT. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER
14-15Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM...AND
THIS AFFECTS THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO BEGIN AFFECTING KAPF WILL BE BETWEEN 02-04Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

..STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
..DRIER EASTER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT DRIER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

A SQUALL LINE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.

EASTER WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE GOING DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 1O TO 15
KNOTS TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE AROUND 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND PUT UP A
SCEC...WHILE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM SEAS REMAIN IN
SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  64 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  87  66 /  20  50  30  10
MIAMI            85  75  87  67 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           86  70  80  63 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181156
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
756 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST GULF
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED EAST FROM THIS AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND MID LEVEL AND CIRRUS
BLOW-OFF FROM THE CONVECTION WILL KEEP BKN/OVC CIGS FROM
10-25KFT. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR WAS MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE DAY OUTSIDE OF A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
HOURS. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KNOTS AFTER
14-15Z WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AT KAPF...WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER TO
THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL HAS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE SHORT TERM...AND
THIS AFFECTS THE STRENGTH AND TIMING OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
TO BEGIN AFFECTING KAPF WILL BE BETWEEN 02-04Z. SHOWERS AND STORMS
ARE THEN EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE AS THEY MOVE THROUGH THE
TAF SITES TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014/

..STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...
..DRIER EASTER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT DRIER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

A SQUALL LINE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.

EASTER WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE GOING DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTER SUNDAY.

LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 1O TO 15
KNOTS TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE AROUND 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND PUT UP A
SCEC...WHILE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM SEAS REMAIN IN
SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  64 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  87  66 /  20  50  30  10
MIAMI            85  75  87  67 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           86  70  80  63 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 180720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...
...DRIER EASTER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


.SHORT TERM...
.TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT DRIER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

A SQUALL LINE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.


.EASTER WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE GOING DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTER SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 1O TO 15
KNOTS TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE AROUND 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND PUT UP A
SCEC...WHILE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM SEAS REMAIN IN
SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  64 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  87  66 /  20  50  30  10
MIAMI            85  75  87  67 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           86  70  80  63 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
320 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

...STRONG TO EVEN ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...
...DRIER EASTER WEEKEND IN STORE FOR SOUTH FLORIDA...

.SYNOPSIS... A WARM FRONT OVER LAKE OKEECHOBEE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS
OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL PUSH THE FRONT
BACK SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA EASTER SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...BEFORE A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


.SHORT TERM...
.TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE BIT DRIER
COMPARED TO THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL BE MOVING
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY WITH EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.
SO HAVE LOWERED THE POPS DOWN A LITTLE BIT TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION.

A SQUALL LINE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE STORMS ALONG THE SQUALL LINE
COULD BECOME STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING
GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN THE POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLATED WEAK TORNADO. SO
WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO PACKAGE.


.EASTER WEEKEND...
THE WEATHER WILL BE IMPROVING ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
EAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE
POPS FOR SATURDAY MORNING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...BEFORE GOING DRY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EASTER SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM...
THE DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK DUE TO THE HIGH OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SWINGING FROM A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THIS
MORNING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS WILL
THEN CONTINUE TO SWING TO A SOUTHWEST TO WEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE GOING TO A NORTHWEST
DIRECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 1O TO 15
KNOTS TODAY...BEFORE INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY.

THE SMALL NORTHEAST SWELL THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE ATLANTIC
WATERS IS SUBSIDING EARLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GULF STREAM SEAS IN THE
ATLANTIC WATERS TO BE AROUND 6 FEET TODAY BEFORE FALLING BELOW 6
FEET BY TONIGHT. THE SEAS WILL THEN REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET FOR SATURDAY
BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TO 6 FEET BY LATE THIS EASTER WEEKEND. FOR
THE GULF SIDE...THE SEAS WILL BE BELOW 6 FEET THIS EASTER WEEKEND.
SO WILL DROP THE SCA FOR THE PALM BEACH WATERS AND PUT UP A
SCEC...WHILE THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC GULF STREAM SEAS REMAIN IN
SCEC CONDITIONS TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  73  86  64 /  30  50  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  87  66 /  20  50  30  10
MIAMI            85  75  87  67 /  20  50  30  10
NAPLES           86  70  80  63 /  30  50  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 180532
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
132 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY WELL
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, SO HAVE
PREVAILING VFR EXCEPT FOR IFR EARLY THIS MORNING AT KAPF WHERE IFR
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY HOLDING THERE, BUT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS.
DID INTRODUCE VCTS BY 00Z AT KAPF AND AT 03Z FOR THE EAST COAST
AS THIS IS WHEN ACTIVITY FROM THE GULF COULD FINALLY BEGIN TO MORE
IN. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
ALREADY AMENDED THE EVENING FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS HOW MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS REMAINS SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALL
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND IN A FLOW PATTERN LIKE THIS, THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
EASILY DESTABILIZE OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
COOLING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE WARM WATER BELOW SO ANY
SHOWER MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY GET THE UPLIFT TO
DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. THE WESTERN PORTIONS HAVE STABILIZED
DUE TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND THIS EVIDENT
WITH THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPED. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB



MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  64  82 /  50  40  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  65  81 /  50  40  10  10
MIAMI            74  86  66  81 /  50  40  10  10
NAPLES           69  79  63  81 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180532
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
132 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.AVIATION...IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL STAY WELL
WEST AND NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD, SO HAVE
PREVAILING VFR EXCEPT FOR IFR EARLY THIS MORNING AT KAPF WHERE IFR
CIGS ARE CURRENTLY HOLDING THERE, BUT IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED
THIS MORNING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TOO PESSIMISTIC WITH CIGS.
DID INTRODUCE VCTS BY 00Z AT KAPF AND AT 03Z FOR THE EAST COAST
AS THIS IS WHEN ACTIVITY FROM THE GULF COULD FINALLY BEGIN TO MORE
IN. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
ALREADY AMENDED THE EVENING FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS HOW MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS REMAINS SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALL
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND IN A FLOW PATTERN LIKE THIS, THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
EASILY DESTABILIZE OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
COOLING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE WARM WATER BELOW SO ANY
SHOWER MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY GET THE UPLIFT TO
DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. THE WESTERN PORTIONS HAVE STABILIZED
DUE TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND THIS EVIDENT
WITH THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPED. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB



MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  64  82 /  50  40  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  87  65  81 /  50  40  10  10
MIAMI            74  86  66  81 /  50  40  10  10
NAPLES           69  79  63  81 /  50  30  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY
     THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 180118
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
918 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ALREADY AMENDED THE EVENING FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS HOW MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS REMAINS SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALL
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND IN A FLOW PATTERN LIKE THIS, THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
EASILY DESTABILIZE OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
COOLING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE WARM WATER BELOW SO ANY
SHOWER MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY GET THE UPLIFT TO
DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. THE WESTERN PORTIONS HAVE STABILIZED
DUE TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND THIS EVIDENT
WITH THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPED. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB



MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  72  86 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  75  87 /  30  40  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  74  86 /  30  40  50  40
NAPLES           70  87  69  79 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180118
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
918 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ALREADY AMENDED THE EVENING FORECAST TO REMOVE THUNDER OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST. THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING SHOWS HOW MOIST AND
UNSTABLE THE AIRMASS REMAINS SO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER ALL
NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS. AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES AND IN A FLOW PATTERN LIKE THIS, THE ATMOSPHERE COULD
EASILY DESTABILIZE OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
COOLING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE WARM WATER BELOW SO ANY
SHOWER MOVING INTO THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD EASILY GET THE UPLIFT TO
DEVELOP INTO A THUNDERSTORM. THE WESTERN PORTIONS HAVE STABILIZED
DUE TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION AND THIS EVIDENT
WITH THE LOW STRATUS DECK THAT HAS DEVELOPED. NO OTHER CHANGES ARE
PLANNED.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB



MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  72  86 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  75  87 /  30  40  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  74  86 /  30  40  50  40
NAPLES           70  87  69  79 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 180004
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
804 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...

SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS LARGELY SUBSIDED EARLY THIS EVENING ALTHOUGH A
FEW SHOWERS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS. FOR
THIS EVENING...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH A FEW
SHOWERS COULD AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS FROM TIME TO
TIME...WITH VCSH ASSIGNED...WITH VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY AGAIN WITH BRIEF
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LOW
STRATUS AROUND 1500 FLEET IS POSSIBLE FOR TERMINAL KAPF DURING
THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY WITH OCCASIONAL CEILINGS POSSIBLE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB



MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  72  86 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  75  87 /  30  40  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  74  86 /  30  40  50  40
NAPLES           70  87  69  79 /  20  50  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 171903
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB


&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  72  86 /  40  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  75  87 /  30  40  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  74  86 /  30  40  50  40
NAPLES           70  87  69  79 /  40  50  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171903
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
303 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING)

THE INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS ALONG THE GULF COAST AND FROM NAPLES TO THE LAKE REGION DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. THE LATEST RADAR
LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THE LATEST HRRR AND WRF MODELS REFLECT THIS AND
INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY BECOMING CONCENTRATED AROUND THE NAPLES AREA
THROUGH THIS TIME. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...LOCALIZED FLOODING
COULD BECOME AN ISSUE DEPENDING ON WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL FOCUSES.
IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL...A FEW STRONG STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT
THROUGH THIS TIME OVER THESE AREAS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE MORNING SOUNDING INDICATED DECENT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH -12 C DEG 500 MB TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH
1.8" PWS. 85/AG

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...

THE LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT
AND GENERALLY INDICATES THE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OUT OF OUR
LOCAL AREA TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A GULF LOW
APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR
AND NW FLOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH DECENT DRY MID-LEVEL AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE LAKE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON PERIOD...PLENTY OF UPPER CLOUDS MAY ACT TO LIMIT
INSTABILITY DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS OF THE DAY...WHICH IS
INDICATED FROM THE MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE LATEST WRF MODEL
REFLECTIVITIES MAINLY SHOW SCATTERED ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AT AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS TIME...THEN TREND BACK TO NORMAL IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. 85/AG

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK)

THE DRY WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK
ALLOWING FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS FRONT
WILL BE A DRY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL JUST REINFORCE THE DRY WEATHER
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.

BNB


&&

.MARINE...

LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND
MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A MIX OF
NORTHEAST SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL REMAIN AT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN ONCE AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS THE PALM BEACH WATERS. IN ADDITION TO
THE WINDS AND SEAS...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF GENERATING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALLY CHOPPIER CONDITIONS IN AND
AROUND THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  84  72  86 /  40  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  75  87 /  30  40  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  74  86 /  30  40  50  40
NAPLES           70  87  69  79 /  40  50  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 171750
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND OF THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES...WITH JUST SHOWERS REMAINING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE STEADILY MARCHING WESTWARD TOWARD
KAPF. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM MIAMI TO FORT LAUDERDALE AND
SEAWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AS A GULF LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST HIRES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO PALM BEACH. THE MORNING
SOUNDING AT MIA INDICATED 1.8" PWS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WITH -12 C 500 MB TEMPS. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  84  72  85 /  40  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  74  86 /  30  20  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  73  87 /  30  10  50  40
NAPLES           69  84  69  81 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171750
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
150 PM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAS
LOCATED NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. CONVECTION HAS MOVED INLAND OF THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES...WITH JUST SHOWERS REMAINING. NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE STEADILY MARCHING WESTWARD TOWARD
KAPF. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY IMPACT THE TAF SITE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISH TO 5-10 KNOTS TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAINLY BROWARD AND PALM BEACH COUNTY AS THE FLOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST. SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 941 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM MIAMI TO FORT LAUDERDALE AND
SEAWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AS A GULF LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST HIRES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO PALM BEACH. THE MORNING
SOUNDING AT MIA INDICATED 1.8" PWS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WITH -12 C 500 MB TEMPS. 85/AG

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  84  72  85 /  40  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  85  74  86 /  30  20  50  40
MIAMI            73  85  73  87 /  30  10  50  40
NAPLES           69  84  69  81 /  40  40  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 171341
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
941 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM MIAMI TO FORT LAUDERDALE AND
SEAWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AS A GULF LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST HIRES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO PALM BEACH. THE MORNING
SOUNDING AT MIA INDICATED 1.8" PWS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WITH -12 C 500 MB TEMPS. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  60  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  60  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  60  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171341
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
941 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED THIS MORNING TO REFLECT
THE LATEST TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE LOCAL AREA. THE
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT FROM MIAMI TO FORT LAUDERDALE AND
SEAWARD ACROSS THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AS A GULF LOW BEGINS TO DEVELOP AND LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS QUITE A
BIT OF DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE LATEST HIRES MODEL REFLECTIVITIES
REGARDING THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF WHERE THE HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BECOME CONCENTRATED...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS THE EAST COAST/METRO AREAS THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THIS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO PALM BEACH. THE MORNING
SOUNDING AT MIA INDICATED 1.8" PWS...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN ANTICIPATED FROM EARLIER MODEL RUNS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN`T BE
RULED OUT TODAY. THE LATEST MODEL SOUNDING SHOWED DECENT MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 700-500 MB WITH -12 C 500 MB TEMPS. 85/AG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  60  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  60  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  60  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 171142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  70  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  70  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  70  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
 FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 171142
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
742 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...AND THEN SPREAD INLAND THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TAF
SITES. MVFR AND EVEN IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER RAIN
COULD SET UP NEAR A COUPLE OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES THIS
MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE PUSHING INLAND. EAST TO
NORTHEAST WINDS 7-12 KNOTS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014/

UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  70  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  70  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  70  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
 FOR AMZ650-670.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 171106
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
706 AM EDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
BUMPED UP POPS SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE EAST COAST TODAY. A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. EASTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH WESTERLY FLOW ABOVE...COMBINED WITH DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY LEAD
TO FOCUSED BANDS OF RAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE HRRR
DEPICTS THIS AS WELL WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY 15Z...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IF/WHERE THESE
BANDS SETUP ALONG THE EAST COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  84  72 /  70  40  50  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  85  74 /  70  30  40  50
MIAMI            84  73  85  73 /  70  30  40  50
NAPLES           87  69  84  69 /  60  40  60  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK





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