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000
FXUS62 KMFL 100547
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1247 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...SECONDARY WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING DOWN PENINSULA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS WSW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF
IT AND VEERING WNW BEHIND IT. SOME GUSTINESS TO 18-20KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY, BUT SPEEDS LOOKS TEMPORARY WITH WINDS
BECOMING WNW 8-10KTS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. SPEED AND DIRECTION CONTINUE THROUGH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM GULF. PREVAILING MID-HIGH CLOUDS INITIALLY,
EDGING TOWARDS SKC LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN AT ALL
LEVELS. /ALM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  43  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  66  46  67  57 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            67  47  67  57 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           62  45  67  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610-630-
     650-651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 100547
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1247 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...SECONDARY WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING DOWN PENINSULA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS WSW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF
IT AND VEERING WNW BEHIND IT. SOME GUSTINESS TO 18-20KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY, BUT SPEEDS LOOKS TEMPORARY WITH WINDS
BECOMING WNW 8-10KTS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. SPEED AND DIRECTION CONTINUE THROUGH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM GULF. PREVAILING MID-HIGH CLOUDS INITIALLY,
EDGING TOWARDS SKC LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN AT ALL
LEVELS. /ALM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  43  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  66  46  67  57 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            67  47  67  57 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           62  45  67  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610-630-
     650-651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 100547
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1247 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...SECONDARY WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING DOWN PENINSULA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH WINDS WSW ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA AHEAD OF
IT AND VEERING WNW BEHIND IT. SOME GUSTINESS TO 18-20KTS
ASSOCIATED WITH BOUNDARY, BUT SPEEDS LOOKS TEMPORARY WITH WINDS
BECOMING WNW 8-10KTS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. SPEED AND DIRECTION CONTINUE THROUGH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM GULF. PREVAILING MID-HIGH CLOUDS INITIALLY,
EDGING TOWARDS SKC LATE IN THE DAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS IN AT ALL
LEVELS. /ALM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  43  66  50 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  66  46  67  57 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            67  47  67  57 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           62  45  67  47 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ610-630-
     650-651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 100136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
836 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
OFF SHORE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS LIKELY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GIVEN THE WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES A MORE MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED.

WITH STABLE WEATHER CONTINUING...NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...VFR XPCTD ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. SCT TO
AT TIMES BKN CIGS THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AOB 6KFT...WITH BKN TO
OVC MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PREVAILING THRU THE NIGHT. GUSTY
WRLY SFC WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME NNWRLY BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THRU THE DAY WED WITH NRLY MRNG WINDS BECMG
WRLY MIDDAY/AFTN BUT NOT AS BREEZY AS TODAY...FCST SUSTAINED
VALUES GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  44  63  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  49  66  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            51  67  47  67 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           50  62  45  67 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 100136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
836 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
OFF SHORE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS LIKELY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GIVEN THE WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES A MORE MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED.

WITH STABLE WEATHER CONTINUING...NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...VFR XPCTD ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. SCT TO
AT TIMES BKN CIGS THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AOB 6KFT...WITH BKN TO
OVC MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PREVAILING THRU THE NIGHT. GUSTY
WRLY SFC WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME NNWRLY BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THRU THE DAY WED WITH NRLY MRNG WINDS BECMG
WRLY MIDDAY/AFTN BUT NOT AS BREEZY AS TODAY...FCST SUSTAINED
VALUES GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  44  63  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  49  66  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            51  67  47  67 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           50  62  45  67 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 100136
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
836 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE
OFF SHORE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS LIKELY IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT
RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GIVEN THE WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS ACROSS
THE GULF WATERS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
THE GULF COAST BEACHES OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES A MORE MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS IS EXPECTED.

WITH STABLE WEATHER CONTINUING...NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE
SHORT TERM FORECAST.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 643 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...VFR XPCTD ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. SCT TO
AT TIMES BKN CIGS THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AOB 6KFT...WITH BKN TO
OVC MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PREVAILING THRU THE NIGHT. GUSTY
WRLY SFC WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME NNWRLY BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THRU THE DAY WED WITH NRLY MRNG WINDS BECMG
WRLY MIDDAY/AFTN BUT NOT AS BREEZY AS TODAY...FCST SUSTAINED
VALUES GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  44  63  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  49  66  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            51  67  47  67 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           50  62  45  67 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 092343
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
643 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...VFR XPCTD ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. SCT TO
AT TIMES BKN CIGS THIS EVENING WITH CIGS AOB 6KFT...WITH BKN TO
OVC MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER PREVAILING THRU THE NIGHT. GUSTY
WRLY SFC WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING
AND BECOME NNWRLY BY LATE IN THE NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT THRU THE DAY WED WITH NRLY MRNG WINDS BECMG
WRLY MIDDAY/AFTN BUT NOT AS BREEZY AS TODAY...FCST SUSTAINED
VALUES GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  44  63  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  49  66  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            51  67  47  67 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           50  62  45  67 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ069.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HART/79





000
FXUS62 KMFL 092200
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THE SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE A LINGERING
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THEN EXTENDING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION CONTINUES WITH STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.

A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WITH
AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PREVAILING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS...WITH THESE FEATURES SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THEN
CONTINUE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN GULF AND ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA BY THURSDAY. THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A COOLER AND STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE
REGION INTO THURSDAY THEN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE
WEEKEND. STABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST TONIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF REGIONAL SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

WEST TO NORTHWEST REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY WITH LATEST GUIDANCE TRENDS INDICATING JUST A SLOW
GRADUAL DECREASE. WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE THE MOST
OVER THE PENINSULA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...LINGERING WINDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO WIND CHILLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF GLADES/HENDRY
COUNTIES IN THE LOWER 40S EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FOR THE METRO
AREAS...WIND CHILLS FROM NEAR 40 TO THE LOWER 40`S ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY METRO WITH THE REMAINING
METRO AREAS LIKELY NEAR 50 TO LOWER 50S WITH A FEW ISOLATED AREAS
IN THE UPPER 40S POSSIBLE. THE COLDEST NIGHT IS FORECAST TO BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
30S ACROSS AREAS OF GLADES...HENDRY AND INTERIOR COLLIER COUNTY.
FOR THE METRO AREAS TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY FORECAST TO BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S...ALTHOUGH THE MIAMI DADE METRO AREAS COULD BE
MID TO UPPER 40S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS THEN FORECAST FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS IN TO 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN FORECAST TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE THEREAFTER.

HAZARDOUS SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET OR GREATER ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGIONAL GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH
AT LEAST LATE WEDNESDAY WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THESE WATERS. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT SEAS TO NEAR 7 FEET COULD LINGER ACROSS THE OFF
SHORE GULF WATERS AND THE GULF STREAM WATERS EAST OF PALM BEACH
COUNTY INTO 00Z THURSDAY SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THESE
WATERS MIGHT BE EXTENDED IF FUTURE GUIDANCE CONTINUES WITH THIS
TREND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES COULD DIP TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW CRITICAL VALUES FOR A
COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF PALM BEACH COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD BE BELOW CRITICAL
VALUES MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF GLADES...HENDRY AND INTERIOR
COLLIER COUNTIES FOR AROUND 4 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  44  63  43  66 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  49  66  46  67 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            51  67  47  67 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           50  62  45  67 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-
     172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 091744
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1244 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...

BKN-OVC CIGS AROUND 7KFT AND SOME HIGH OVERCAST HAVE PREVENTED
DEEPER MIXING AND LIMITED WIND GUSTS LATE THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. STILL POSSIBLE THAT SOME 25KT WIND GUSTS ARE OBSERVED
LATER TODAY. OTHERWISE, VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN SOMEWHAT TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  45  63  41  66 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  51  66  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            52  66  46  66 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           50  61  42  65 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-
     172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 091203
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
703 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

ISSUED A QUICK WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR SEVERAL WIND GUSTS 35
MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE COAST. SEE UPCOMING LSR. GUSTS IN AND
AROUND THE NAPLES AREA HAVE BEEN 35 TO 40 MPH SO FAR THIS
MORNING. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY FURTHER INLAND,
ESPECIALLY IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING FOR
DEEPER MIXING TO OCCUR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING WNW. A FEW SITES HAVE GUSTED TO
30KTS WITH ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER 23Z TO 10-12KTS WITH A FEW SITES DROPPING BELOW
10KTS AFTER 10/04Z. CIGS REMAIN VFR, WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /ALM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  45  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  51  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            69  52  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           64  50  61  42 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 091203
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
703 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

ISSUED A QUICK WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR SEVERAL WIND GUSTS 35
MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE COAST. SEE UPCOMING LSR. GUSTS IN AND
AROUND THE NAPLES AREA HAVE BEEN 35 TO 40 MPH SO FAR THIS
MORNING. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY FURTHER INLAND,
ESPECIALLY IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING FOR
DEEPER MIXING TO OCCUR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING WNW. A FEW SITES HAVE GUSTED TO
30KTS WITH ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER 23Z TO 10-12KTS WITH A FEW SITES DROPPING BELOW
10KTS AFTER 10/04Z. CIGS REMAIN VFR, WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /ALM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  45  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  51  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            69  52  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           64  50  61  42 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 091203
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
703 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...

ISSUED A QUICK WIND ADVISORY TO ACCOUNT FOR SEVERAL WIND GUSTS 35
MPH OR GREATER ALONG THE COAST. SEE UPCOMING LSR. GUSTS IN AND
AROUND THE NAPLES AREA HAVE BEEN 35 TO 40 MPH SO FAR THIS
MORNING. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE ADVISORY FURTHER INLAND,
ESPECIALLY IF SUFFICIENT CLEARING DEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING FOR
DEEPER MIXING TO OCCUR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 606 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016/

AVIATION...FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING WNW. A FEW SITES HAVE GUSTED TO
30KTS WITH ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER 23Z TO 10-12KTS WITH A FEW SITES DROPPING BELOW
10KTS AFTER 10/04Z. CIGS REMAIN VFR, WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /ALM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  45  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  51  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            69  52  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           64  50  61  42 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 091106
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
606 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING WNW. A FEW SITES HAVE GUSTED TO
30KTS WITH ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER 23Z TO 10-12KTS WITH A FEW SITES DROPPING BELOW
10KTS AFTER 10/04Z. CIGS REMAIN VFR, WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /ALM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  45  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  51  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            69  52  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           64  50  61  42 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 091106
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
606 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING WNW. A FEW SITES HAVE GUSTED TO
30KTS WITH ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER 23Z TO 10-12KTS WITH A FEW SITES DROPPING BELOW
10KTS AFTER 10/04Z. CIGS REMAIN VFR, WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /ALM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  45  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  51  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            69  52  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           64  50  61  42 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 091106
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
606 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...FRONT CURRENTLY PASSING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING WITH WINDS QUICKLY VEERING WNW. A FEW SITES HAVE GUSTED TO
30KTS WITH ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. WINDS
DIMINISHING AFTER 23Z TO 10-12KTS WITH A FEW SITES DROPPING BELOW
10KTS AFTER 10/04Z. CIGS REMAIN VFR, WITH BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. /ALM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  45  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  51  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            69  52  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           64  50  61  42 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 090852
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BRING DRY AND
QUITE COOL CONDITION TO SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
8Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICT CDFNT STRETCHING FROM NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
TO NAPLES...MOVING SEWD. THIS FRONT SHOULD CLEAR SOFLA BY 12Z.
BREEZY NW WIND ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COOL AIR THAT WILL AGAIN KEEP THE REGION IN THE 60S FOR
AFTN MAXIMA.

OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH OF CONUS WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THROUGH THE WEEK...CONSISTING OF DEEP-LAYER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
EASTERN AREAS...WITH WESTERN CONUS BENEATH RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW
COOLER AIR TO CONTINUE SPILLING SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA. NEXT COLD
FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY. THOUGH ITS PASSAGE WILL BE QUITE
SUBTLE...IT IS POISED TO BRING LOW TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN
SEVERAL DEGREES FROM TONIGHT. MINIMA ARE LIKELY TO BE LOW AND MID
40S MOST AREAS...WITH UPPER 30S OVER NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY
AND THE NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR. COMBINED WITH NORTHWEST WIND OF 10
TO EVEN 15 KT...WIND CHILL VALUES MAY MET ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER
THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THAT SEE LOW TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW 40F.
MOST URBAN AREAS OF THE CWA WILL LIKELY SEE WIND CHILL VALUES
RANGE FROM UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S.

MAXIMA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM WILL BE IN THE 60S...SOME 10-15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RIP CURRENT RISK ON
ALL BEACHES TODAY IS HIGH...WITH LIKELY MODERATE OR HIGH RISK
CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR WEEKS END INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE. THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THEY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK. EXPECT MAXIMA IN UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WITH MINIMA IN THE MID
40S TO MID 50S. ANOTHER REINFORCING SURGE OF COOL AIR IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT. BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...FLOW FINALLY
BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO EASTERLY IN DIRECTION...AND ONSHORE
ATLANTIC FLOW WILL LEAD TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY WSW WINDS 8-10KTS CURRENTLY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO GULF
COAST AHEAD OF FRONT AFFECTING KAPF, AND A FEW MAY SURVIVE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA TO EAST COAST SITES. HOWEVER, MAIN THREAT FOR EAST
COAST SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 08Z, THOUGH
COVERAGE/IMPACTS ARE STILL TOO LOW FOR MORE THAN VCSH AT THIS
TIME. CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR, WITH SOME CLOUDS FL040-060
ACCOMPANYING FRONT AND PRECIP. WINDS VEER WNW WINDS FRONT 8-10Z,
INCREASING TO 10-13KTS WITH GUSTS 25KTS. MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL IN
SPEEDS BEHIND INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN
AFTER 14Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /ALM

&&

.MARINE...
SEVERAL ADJUSTMENTS TO MARINE HEADLINES EARLY THIS MORNING. FOR
ALL WATERS...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT WARRANTS EXTENSION OF ADVISORY
THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. THEREAFTER...SEAS IN GULF ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE 7 FEET THROUGH THE MORNING SO ADZY IN EFFECT FOR GULF
ZONES THROUGH 18Z WED. FOR OFFSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS...ROUGH SEAS
OF 8 TO 10 FT...AIDED BY MODERATE NELY SWELL...ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...SO SCA OUT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 0Z
THURSDAY.

GUSTS BEHIND CURRENTLY INVADING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS...AND STILL MAY NEED WARNING AT SOME POINT THIS
MORNING. THEREAFTER...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BEGIN A VERY GRADUAL
DOWNWARD TREND...BUT HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH SOUTH FLORIDA BY SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO
FOLLOW ITS PASSAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  45  63  41 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  51  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            69  52  66  46 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           64  50  61  42 /   0   0  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...88/ALM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 090529
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1229 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...GUSTY WSW WINDS 8-10KTS CURRENTLY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO GULF
COAST AHEAD OF FRONT AFFECTING KAPF, AND A FEW MAY SURVIVE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA TO EAST COAST SITES. HOWEVER, MAIN THREAT FOR EAST
COAST SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 08Z, THOUGH
COVERAGE/IMPACTS ARE STILL TOO LOW FOR MORE THAN VCSH AT THIS
TIME. CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR, WITH SOME CLOUDS FL040-060
ACCOMPANYING FRONT AND PRECIP. WINDS VEER WNW WINDS FRONT 8-10Z,
INCREASING TO 10-13KTS WITH GUSTS 25KTS. MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL IN
SPEEDS BEHIND INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN
AFTER 14Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /ALM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  46  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  50  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            68  50  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           63  51  60  45 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ610-630-
     650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 090529
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1229 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...GUSTY WSW WINDS 8-10KTS CURRENTLY AHEAD OF
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING INTO GULF
COAST AHEAD OF FRONT AFFECTING KAPF, AND A FEW MAY SURVIVE ACROSS
THE PENINSULA TO EAST COAST SITES. HOWEVER, MAIN THREAT FOR EAST
COAST SHRA LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 08Z, THOUGH
COVERAGE/IMPACTS ARE STILL TOO LOW FOR MORE THAN VCSH AT THIS
TIME. CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN VFR, WITH SOME CLOUDS FL040-060
ACCOMPANYING FRONT AND PRECIP. WINDS VEER WNW WINDS FRONT 8-10Z,
INCREASING TO 10-13KTS WITH GUSTS 25KTS. MAY SEE A BRIEF LULL IN
SPEEDS BEHIND INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH WINDS PICKING UP AGAIN
AFTER 14Z THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. /ALM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  46  62  44 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  50  65  47 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            68  50  67  47 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           63  51  60  45 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ610-630-
     650-651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR GMZ656-657-
     676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 090116
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
816 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH INCREASING W-NW GUSTY WINDS TO AROUND 25 KT
ON TUESDAY AS MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASES BUT WITH NO SHOWERS
EXPECTED. CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A SHOWER NEAR KAPF...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016/

..A COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...
..INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT-TUESDAY...

DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WITH A RIDGE PUMPED UP ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THE
RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NEXT FRONT BEING TONIGHT, A SUBTLE ONE LATE WED, THEN YET
ANOTHER ONE LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
STARVED WITH EACH FRONT AS RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AND MOSTLY NON-EXISTENT. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT A DRY
FORECAST GOING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

IT WILL BE CHILLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL BUT NOTHING TOO
COLD...AND CONDITIONS LOOK TO MODERATE SOME BY THE WEEKEND. LOWS
EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
WARMING FINALLY INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING
BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE AGAIN WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC COAST,
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES. A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS UP FROM MIAMI-DADE TO THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH TUE
EVENING. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH TIME AS IT IS PEAKING
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...ESPECIALLY THE PALM BEACH COAST DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD
SWELL. PALM BEACH OCEAN RESCUE REPORTED BREAKING WAVES OF 8 FEET
NORTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIAMI BEACH OCEAN RESCUE
REPORTING 5 FOOT BREAKERS AND ONE RESCUE. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING W-NW WINDS INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS TO
HAZARDOUS LEVELS AND ROUGH BAY AND LAKE CONDITIONS. SO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL MARINE AREAS BEGINNING
MID EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE EVENING. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  65  46  62 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  68  50  65 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            54  68  50  67 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           59  63  51  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ610-630-650-
     651-670-671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 082117
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
417 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...A COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...
...INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT-TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WITH A RIDGE PUMPED UP ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THE
RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NEXT FRONT BEING TONIGHT, A SUBTLE ONE LATE WED, THEN YET
ANOTHER ONE LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
STARVED WITH EACH FRONT AS RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AND MOSTLY NON-EXISTENT. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT A DRY
FORECAST GOING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

IT WILL BE CHILLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL BUT NOTHING TOO
COLD...AND CONDITIONS LOOK TO MODERATE SOME BY THE WEEKEND. LOWS
EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
WARMING FINALLY INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING
BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE AGAIN WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC COAST,
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES. A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS UP FROM MIAMI-DADE TO THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH TUE
EVENING. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH TIME AS IT IS PEAKING
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...ESPECIALLY THE PALM BEACH COAST DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD
SWELL. PALM BEACH OCEAN RESCUE REPORTED BREAKING WAVES OF 8 FEET
NORTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIAMI BEACH OCEAN RESCUE
REPORTING 5 FOOT BREAKERS AND ONE RESCUE. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING W-NW WINDS INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS TO
HAZARDOUS LEVELS AND ROUGH BAY AND LAKE CONDITIONS. SO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL MARINE AREAS BEGINNING
MID EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE EVENING. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  65  46  62 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  68  50  65 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            54  68  50  67 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           59  63  51  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 082117
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
417 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...A COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...
...INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT-TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WITH A RIDGE PUMPED UP ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THE
RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NEXT FRONT BEING TONIGHT, A SUBTLE ONE LATE WED, THEN YET
ANOTHER ONE LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
STARVED WITH EACH FRONT AS RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AND MOSTLY NON-EXISTENT. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT A DRY
FORECAST GOING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

IT WILL BE CHILLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL BUT NOTHING TOO
COLD...AND CONDITIONS LOOK TO MODERATE SOME BY THE WEEKEND. LOWS
EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
WARMING FINALLY INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING
BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE AGAIN WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC COAST,
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES. A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS UP FROM MIAMI-DADE TO THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH TUE
EVENING. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH TIME AS IT IS PEAKING
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...ESPECIALLY THE PALM BEACH COAST DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD
SWELL. PALM BEACH OCEAN RESCUE REPORTED BREAKING WAVES OF 8 FEET
NORTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIAMI BEACH OCEAN RESCUE
REPORTING 5 FOOT BREAKERS AND ONE RESCUE. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING W-NW WINDS INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS TO
HAZARDOUS LEVELS AND ROUGH BAY AND LAKE CONDITIONS. SO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL MARINE AREAS BEGINNING
MID EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE EVENING. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  65  46  62 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  68  50  65 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            54  68  50  67 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           59  63  51  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 082117
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
417 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

...A COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE...
...INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS TONIGHT-TUESDAY...

.DISCUSSION...
THE LARGE SCALE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED
ACROSS THE UNITED STATES THIS WEEK WITH A RIDGE PUMPED UP ACROSS
THE WESTERN U.S. AND A TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. THE
RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUED COOL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA AS RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONTS MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NEXT FRONT BEING TONIGHT, A SUBTLE ONE LATE WED, THEN YET
ANOTHER ONE LATE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
STARVED WITH EACH FRONT AS RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONTS WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED AND MOSTLY NON-EXISTENT. AS SUCH...HAVE KEPT A DRY
FORECAST GOING THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

IT WILL BE CHILLY THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL BUT NOTHING TOO
COLD...AND CONDITIONS LOOK TO MODERATE SOME BY THE WEEKEND. LOWS
EACH NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 40S AND 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S
WARMING FINALLY INTO THE 70S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE FALLING
BACK INTO THE 60S ON SUNDAY. THURSDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE
COLDEST...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE AGAIN WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ATLANTIC COAST,
GENERATING STRONG RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES. A HIGH RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS IS UP FROM MIAMI-DADE TO THE PALM BEACHES THROUGH TUE
EVENING. THE SWELL WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH TIME AS IT IS PEAKING
THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BEACH EROSION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE ATLANTIC
COAST...ESPECIALLY THE PALM BEACH COAST DUE TO THE LONG PERIOD
SWELL. PALM BEACH OCEAN RESCUE REPORTED BREAKING WAVES OF 8 FEET
NORTHERN COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIAMI BEACH OCEAN RESCUE
REPORTING 5 FOOT BREAKERS AND ONE RESCUE. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS TONIGHT AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASING W-NW WINDS INTO THE 20-30 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS TO
HAZARDOUS LEVELS AND ROUGH BAY AND LAKE CONDITIONS. SO A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCAL MARINE AREAS BEGINNING
MID EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUE EVENING. /GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  51  65  46  62 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  52  68  50  65 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            54  68  50  67 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           59  63  51  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 081748
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1248 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...

COLD FRONT ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH LITTLE FANFARE. SOME SHOWERS
POSSIBLE NEAR APF, BUT NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS.
POSSIBLY SOME LOWER CLOUDS OR A FEW MVFR CIGS LATE ALONG THE EAST
COAST. SOME 30 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO TOMORROW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  49  66  43  63 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  56  68  48  65 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            55  68  49  66 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           57  63  50  60 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 081423
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
923 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...

MARINE STRATOCU JUST OFF THE GULF COAST WILL MOVE ONSHORE THROUGH
TODAY. SOME HIGHER CLOUDS MAY ALSO SPILL OVER THE REST OF SOUTH FL
LATE DAY. ADDED THE GULF COAST TO THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
FOR TONIGHT WITH WNW WINDS INCREASING DRAMATICALLY. MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A GALE WARNING FOR PART OF OUR WATERS FOR TONIGHT. IN
ADDITION, A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE WEST
COAST, ALTHOUGH ESTOFS PUSHES THE HIGHEST VALUES INTO MAINLAND
MONROE TONIGHT JUST SOUTH OF COLLIER COUNTY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016/

AVIATION...WNW WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 5-8KTS THIS MORNING AT
EAST COAST, PICKING UP TO 8-10KTS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT NNE WINDS AT
KAPF BECOMING WEST AFTER 15Z-16Z. WINDS BACK WSW AFTER 18Z AHEAD
OF NEXT BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING GRADIENT BRINGING SPEEDS 11-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20KTS. GUSTINESS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 09/02Z, BUT SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 8-12KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL CIGS
FL030 AFTER 09/02Z WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY AT THE MOMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAPF WHERE VCSH
HAS BEEN ADDED AFTER 23Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  49  66  43 /   0  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  56  68  48 /   0  10   0   0
MIAMI            67  55  68  49 /   0  10   0   0
NAPLES           65  57  63  50 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ069.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 081105
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
605 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...WNW WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 5-8KTS THIS MORNING AT
EAST COAST, PICKING UP TO 8-10KTS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT NNE WINDS AT
KAPF BECOMING WEST AFTER 15Z-16Z. WINDS BACK WSW AFTER 18Z AHEAD
OF NEXT BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING GRADIENT BRINGING SPEEDS 11-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20KTS. GUSTINESS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 09/02Z, BUT SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 8-12KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL CIGS
FL030 AFTER 09/02Z WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY AT THE MOMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAPF WHERE VCSH
HAS BEEN ADDED AFTER 23Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  49  66  43 /   0  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  56  68  48 /   0  10   0   0
MIAMI            67  55  68  49 /   0  10   0   0
NAPLES           65  57  63  50 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 081105
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
605 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...WNW WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 5-8KTS THIS MORNING AT
EAST COAST, PICKING UP TO 8-10KTS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT NNE WINDS AT
KAPF BECOMING WEST AFTER 15Z-16Z. WINDS BACK WSW AFTER 18Z AHEAD
OF NEXT BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING GRADIENT BRINGING SPEEDS 11-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20KTS. GUSTINESS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 09/02Z, BUT SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 8-12KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL CIGS
FL030 AFTER 09/02Z WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY AT THE MOMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAPF WHERE VCSH
HAS BEEN ADDED AFTER 23Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  49  66  43 /   0  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  56  68  48 /   0  10   0   0
MIAMI            67  55  68  49 /   0  10   0   0
NAPLES           65  57  63  50 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 081105
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
605 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...WNW WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF TO 5-8KTS THIS MORNING AT
EAST COAST, PICKING UP TO 8-10KTS AFTER 15Z. LIGHT NNE WINDS AT
KAPF BECOMING WEST AFTER 15Z-16Z. WINDS BACK WSW AFTER 18Z AHEAD
OF NEXT BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING GRADIENT BRINGING SPEEDS 11-15KTS
WITH GUSTS 20KTS. GUSTINESS WILL DROP OFF AFTER 09/02Z, BUT SPEEDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 8-12KTS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MID-HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL CIGS
FL030 AFTER 09/02Z WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO
REMAIN DRY AT THE MOMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAPF WHERE VCSH
HAS BEEN ADDED AFTER 23Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  49  66  43 /   0  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  56  68  48 /   0  10   0   0
MIAMI            67  55  68  49 /   0  10   0   0
NAPLES           65  57  63  50 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 080852
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
352 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...

SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL...DRY
CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
COOL AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MAXIMA.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM /ACTUALLY THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS WELL/ CONSISTS OF ATYPICALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING PROLONGED PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER NW FLOW TO
FLORIDA...AND LEAVE COLD FRONTS FREE TO RACE SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE PENINSULA. THE RESULT WILL BE TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE PERSISTENT NW FLOW...LITTLE
MOISTURE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTH...SO RAIN CHANCES LESS THAN
20 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEK.

FIRST OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...REINFORCING COOL DRY AIR...AND LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH MINIMA WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT /U40S-
M50S/...MAXIMA TUE/WED WILL ONLY REACH L/M60S...AND TUE NGT TEMPS
SHOULD FALL BELOW 50F ALL AREAS.

MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON SOUTH
FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. DEPENDING ON MAGNITUDE
OF OCEAN SWELL DERIVING FROM LOPRES OFF MID-ATLC THAT WILL ARRIVE
ONTO PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES TODAY INTO TOMORROW...MINOR BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE AND THERE IS POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
OR EVEN HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. ATTM...LATEST
GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING SWELL TO NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL ISSUES SO NO NEW HEADLINES OUT ASIDE
FROM RIP STATEMENT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE COLD FRONT/HIPRES SURGE WILL CROSS WED
NGT...LIKELY LEADING TO COOLEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK /ASIDE FROM MON
MRNG/ EARLY THU. EXPECT WIND CHILLS IN 30S MOST OF NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA...WITH L40S WIND CHILL VALUES FOR REMAINDER OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS COOL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CURB
WARMING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING MID-
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 18Z. WNW FLOW REMAINS AROUND 8-10KTS FOR MOST
SITES, THOUGH GRADIENT HAS LIGHTENED ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAND BREEZE
TO DEVELOP AT KAPF WITH WINDS VEERING NNE. WINDS BACK WSW AFTER
18Z AHEAD OF NEXT BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING GRADIENT BRINGING
SPEEDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20KTS.

MARINE...
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET WILL CONTINUE ON ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. CDFNT
PASSING TONIGHT WILL BRING NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TO MOST AREAS...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL
WATERS /MINUS BISCAYNE BAY/ FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ROUGH SEAS
PARTIALLY INDUCED BY THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEYOND
TUESDAY AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED...BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT WARNING
ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  49  66  43 /   0  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  56  68  48 /   0  10   0   0
MIAMI            67  55  68  49 /   0  10   0   0
NAPLES           65  57  63  50 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 080821
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
321 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL...DRY
CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
COOL AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MAXIMA.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM /ACTUALLY THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS WELL/ CONSISTS OF ATYPICALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING PROLONGED PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER NW FLOW TO
FLORIDA...AND LEAVE COLD FRONTS FREE TO RACE SOUTHWARD DOWN
THROUGH THE PENINSULA. THE RESULT WILL BE TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE PERSISTENT NW
FLOW...LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTH...SO RAIN
CHANCES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEK.

FIRST OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...REINFORCING COOL DRY AIR...AND LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH MINIMA WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT /U40S-
M50S/...MAXIMA TUE/WED WILL ONLY REACH L/M60S...AND TUE NGT TEMPS
SHOULD FALL BELOW 50F ALL AREAS.

MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON SOUTH
FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. DEPENDING ON MAGNITUDE
OF OCEAN SWELL DERIVING FROM LOPRES OFF MID-ATLC THAT WILL ARRIVE
ONTO PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES TODAY INTO TOMORROW...MINOR BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE AND THERE IS POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
OR EVEN HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. ATTM...LATEST
GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING SWELL TO NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL ISSUES SO NO NEW HEADLINES OUT ASIDE
FROM RIP STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE COLD FRONT/HIPRES SURGE WILL CROSS WED
NGT...LIKELY LEADING TO COOLEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK /ASIDE FROM MON
MRNG/ EARLY THU. EXPECT WIND CHILLS IN 30S MOST OF NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA...WITH L40S WIND CHILL VALUES FOR REMAINDER OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS COOL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CURB
WARMING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING MID-
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 18Z. WNW FLOW REMAINS AROUND 8-10KTS FOR MOST
SITES, THOUGH GRADIENT HAS LIGHTENED ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAND BREEZE
TO DEVELOP AT KAPF WITH WINDS VEERING NNE. WINDS BACK WSW AFTER
18Z AHEAD OF NEXT BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING GRADIENT BRINGING
SPEEDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET WILL CONTINUE ON ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. CDFNT
PASSING TONIGHT WILL BRING NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TO MOST AREAS...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL
WATERS /MINUS BISCAYNE BAY/ FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ROUGH SEAS
PARTIALLY INDUCED BY THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEYOND
TUESDAY AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED...BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT WARNING
ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  49  66  43 /   0  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  56  68  48 /   0  10   0   0
MIAMI            67  55  68  49 /   0  10   0   0
NAPLES           65  57  63  50 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...88/ALM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 080821
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
321 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING COOL...DRY
CONDITIONS TO SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHERLY/OFFSHORE FLOW PREVAILING OVERNIGHT CONTINUES TO ADVECT
COOL AIR INTO SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE
IN THE 40S AREA-WIDE. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND INTO THE 60S FOR MAXIMA.

SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE SHORT TERM /ACTUALLY THROUGH THE
LONG TERM AS WELL/ CONSISTS OF ATYPICALLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE
OVER WESTERN CONUS WITH SIGNIFICANT TROUGH OVER EASTERN CONUS.
THIS WILL BRING PROLONGED PERIOD OF DEEP LAYER NW FLOW TO
FLORIDA...AND LEAVE COLD FRONTS FREE TO RACE SOUTHWARD DOWN
THROUGH THE PENINSULA. THE RESULT WILL BE TEMPERATURES AVERAGING
10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WITH THE PERSISTENT NW
FLOW...LITTLE MOISTURE WILL BUILD UP FROM THE SOUTH...SO RAIN
CHANCES LESS THAN 20 PERCENT THROUGH THE WEEK.

FIRST OF AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT...REINFORCING COOL DRY AIR...AND LEAVING GUSTY NW WINDS IN
ITS WAKE. ALTHOUGH MINIMA WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT /U40S-
M50S/...MAXIMA TUE/WED WILL ONLY REACH L/M60S...AND TUE NGT TEMPS
SHOULD FALL BELOW 50F ALL AREAS.

MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE ON SOUTH
FLORIDA BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. DEPENDING ON MAGNITUDE
OF OCEAN SWELL DERIVING FROM LOPRES OFF MID-ATLC THAT WILL ARRIVE
ONTO PALM BEACH COUNTY BEACHES TODAY INTO TOMORROW...MINOR BEACH
EROSION IS POSSIBLE AND THERE IS POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT
OR EVEN HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY. ATTM...LATEST
GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING SWELL TO NOT BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL ISSUES SO NO NEW HEADLINES OUT ASIDE
FROM RIP STATEMENT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER MORE SUBTLE COLD FRONT/HIPRES SURGE WILL CROSS WED
NGT...LIKELY LEADING TO COOLEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK /ASIDE FROM MON
MRNG/ EARLY THU. EXPECT WIND CHILLS IN 30S MOST OF NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CWA...WITH L40S WIND CHILL VALUES FOR REMAINDER OF
SOUTH FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS COOL FOR FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...BUT YET ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL CURB
WARMING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
PREVAILING VFR THROUGH TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING MID-
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 18Z. WNW FLOW REMAINS AROUND 8-10KTS FOR MOST
SITES, THOUGH GRADIENT HAS LIGHTENED ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAND BREEZE
TO DEVELOP AT KAPF WITH WINDS VEERING NNE. WINDS BACK WSW AFTER
18Z AHEAD OF NEXT BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING GRADIENT BRINGING
SPEEDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20KTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS OF 7 TO 9 FEET WILL CONTINUE ON ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY. CDFNT
PASSING TONIGHT WILL BRING NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS
TO MOST AREAS...SO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN RAISED FOR ALL
WATERS /MINUS BISCAYNE BAY/ FOR TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. ROUGH SEAS
PARTIALLY INDUCED BY THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE BEYOND
TUESDAY AND HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEK. TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
EXPERIENCED...BUT CONFIDENCE ISNT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT WARNING
ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  49  66  43 /   0  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  56  68  48 /   0  10   0   0
MIAMI            67  55  68  49 /   0  10   0   0
NAPLES           65  57  63  50 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ610.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...88/ALM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 080533
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1233 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR THROUGH TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING MID-
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 18Z. WNW FLOW REMAINS AROUND 8-10KTS FOR MOST
SITES, THOUGH GRADIENT HAS LIGHTENED ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAND BREEZE
TO DEVELOP AT KAPF WITH WINDS VEERING NNE. WINDS BACK WSW AFTER
18Z AHEAD OF NEXT BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING GRADIENT BRINGING
SPEEDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  66  51  68  45 /   0  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  66  55  69  51 /   0  10   0   0
MIAMI            66  56  68  51 /   0  10  10   0
NAPLES           64  58  63  53 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 080533
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1233 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.AVIATION...PREVAILING VFR THROUGH TAF CYCLE WITH INCREASING MID-
HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 18Z. WNW FLOW REMAINS AROUND 8-10KTS FOR MOST
SITES, THOUGH GRADIENT HAS LIGHTENED ENOUGH TO ALLOW LAND BREEZE
TO DEVELOP AT KAPF WITH WINDS VEERING NNE. WINDS BACK WSW AFTER
18Z AHEAD OF NEXT BOUNDARY WITH INCREASING GRADIENT BRINGING
SPEEDS 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS 20KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  66  51  68  45 /   0  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  66  55  69  51 /   0  10   0   0
MIAMI            66  56  68  51 /   0  10  10   0
NAPLES           64  58  63  53 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 080247
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
947 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...AFTER COLD NIGHT, COOL, DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...

.UPDATE...
WINDS ACROSS THE MAINLAND HAVE BEGUN TO BECOME LIGHTER THIS
EVENING WITH SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE AND
TEMPERATURE TRENDS IN LINE WITH FORECAST. ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS WIND TRENDS ARE ALSO LINED UP WITH THE FORECAST WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE OVERNIGHT BUT REMAINING IN PLACE FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW.

THE HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK HAS ALSO BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ACROSS
THE GULF COAST THIS EVENING. BOTH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AND HIGH
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO RETURN BY MONDAY EVENING TO THE
GULF COASTAL WATERS AND LIKELY TO BE EXTENDED ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SIDE AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ALONG WITH WINDS AND MODERATE
SWELL IMPACTS THE ATLANTIC SIDE ALSO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 717 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. NW BREEZES OF 5
TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

.COOL, DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED, ANOMALOUS RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HOLDING TIGHT THROUGH
WEEK`S END. THIS MEANS AN EXTENDED BREAK FROM THE WET DRY SEASON
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SO FAR!

AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
STATES, RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONTS/SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL COME
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ONE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE WITH
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKING LIKELY FOR LATE THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS.

THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT WITH LOWS PROJECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE...WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOT MADE TO LOWS/WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT...BUT IF ANYTHING IT WAS A NUDGE IN A MILDER DIRECTION. AS
SUCH...AM NOT EXPECTING FROST ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME...MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LACKING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TWO AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTS. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE GULF COAST MON
NIGHT.

BUILDING SURF IS FORECAST ALONG ESPECIALLY THE PALM BEACHES
OVERNIGHT-MON. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
SOME BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
EVENING...POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
AN INTENSE OCEANIC LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA.
WIND FIELDS/FETCH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A
SWELL INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDING OVERNIGHT AND
PEAKING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NWPS OUTPUT SHOWS A 10-12 SECOND SWELL
OF 4-6 FT OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND POSSIBLE MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
PALM BEACH COAST. SURF HEIGHT IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 6-8 FT...AND
THIS IS UNDER THE 10 FT HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, A
DANGEROUS SURF ZONE WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MON EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SWELL SLOWLY FADES. THE SWELL
LESSENS WITH DISTANCE DOWN THE COAST.

THE GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED FOR THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS
AS A SUBSIDING WIND TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THIS
EVENING, DROPPING FOR ALL BUT THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT-MONDAY ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOCAL MARINE AREA
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE NORTHERN AREAS.
/GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  42  66  51  68 /   0   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  45  66  55  69 /   0   0  10   0
MIAMI            45  66  56  68 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           45  64  58  63 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....57/DG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 080017
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
717 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. NW BREEZES OF 5
TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

..COOL, DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED, ANOMALOUS RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HOLDING TIGHT THROUGH
WEEK`S END. THIS MEANS AN EXTENDED BREAK FROM THE WET DRY SEASON
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SO FAR!

AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
STATES, RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONTS/SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL COME
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ONE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE WITH
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKING LIKELY FOR LATE THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS.

THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT WITH LOWS PROJECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE...WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOT MADE TO LOWS/WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT...BUT IF ANYTHING IT WAS A NUDGE IN A MILDER DIRECTION. AS
SUCH...AM NOT EXPECTING FROST ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME...MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LACKING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TWO AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTS. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE GULF COAST MON
NIGHT.

BUILDING SURF IS FORECAST ALONG ESPECIALLY THE PALM BEACHES
OVERNIGHT-MON. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
SOME BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
EVENING...POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
AN INTENSE OCEANIC LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA.
WIND FIELDS/FETCH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A
SWELL INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDING OVERNIGHT AND
PEAKING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NWPS OUTPUT SHOWS A 10-12 SECOND SWELL
OF 4-6 FT OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND POSSIBLE MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
PALM BEACH COAST. SURF HEIGHT IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 6-8 FT...AND
THIS IS UNDER THE 10 FT HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, A
DANGEROUS SURF ZONE WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MON EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SWELL SLOWLY FADES. THE SWELL
LESSENS WITH DISTANCE DOWN THE COAST.

THE GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED FOR THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS
AS A SUBSIDING WIND TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THIS
EVENING, DROPPING FOR ALL BUT THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT-MONDAY ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOCAL MARINE AREA
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE NORTHERN AREAS.
/GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  42  66  51 /  10   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  45  66  55 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            62  45  66  56 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           59  45  64  58 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...52/PS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 080017
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
717 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD. NW BREEZES OF 5
TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY
TOMORROW AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 345 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

..COOL, DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...

DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED, ANOMALOUS RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HOLDING TIGHT THROUGH
WEEK`S END. THIS MEANS AN EXTENDED BREAK FROM THE WET DRY SEASON
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SO FAR!

AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
STATES, RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONTS/SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL COME
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ONE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE WITH
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKING LIKELY FOR LATE THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS.

THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT WITH LOWS PROJECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE...WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOT MADE TO LOWS/WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT...BUT IF ANYTHING IT WAS A NUDGE IN A MILDER DIRECTION. AS
SUCH...AM NOT EXPECTING FROST ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME...MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LACKING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TWO AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTS. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE GULF COAST MON
NIGHT.

BUILDING SURF IS FORECAST ALONG ESPECIALLY THE PALM BEACHES
OVERNIGHT-MON. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
SOME BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
EVENING...POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. /GREGORIA

MARINE...
AN INTENSE OCEANIC LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA.
WIND FIELDS/FETCH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A
SWELL INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDING OVERNIGHT AND
PEAKING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NWPS OUTPUT SHOWS A 10-12 SECOND SWELL
OF 4-6 FT OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND POSSIBLE MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
PALM BEACH COAST. SURF HEIGHT IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 6-8 FT...AND
THIS IS UNDER THE 10 FT HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, A
DANGEROUS SURF ZONE WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MON EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SWELL SLOWLY FADES. THE SWELL
LESSENS WITH DISTANCE DOWN THE COAST.

THE GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED FOR THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS
AS A SUBSIDING WIND TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THIS
EVENING, DROPPING FOR ALL BUT THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT-MONDAY ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOCAL MARINE AREA
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE NORTHERN AREAS.
/GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  60  42  66  51 /  10   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  62  45  66  55 /  10   0   0  10
MIAMI            62  45  66  56 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           59  45  64  58 /  10   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....57/DG
AVIATION...52/PS




000
FXUS62 KMFL 072045
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
345 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

...COOL, DRY WEATHER PATTERN TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...

.DISCUSSION...
AN AMPLIFIED, ANOMALOUS RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HOLDING TIGHT THROUGH
WEEK`S END. THIS MEANS AN EXTENDED BREAK FROM THE WET DRY SEASON
WE HAVE EXPERIENCED SO FAR!

AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN
STATES, RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONTS/SHOTS OF COLD AIR WILL COME
SOUTH AS SHORTWAVES DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD. MODEL CONSENSUS SHOWS ONE
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL LATE MON NIGHT/EARLY TUE WITH
COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTHWARD THROUGH LATE
WEEK...AND YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKING LIKELY FOR LATE THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED CHILLY CONDITIONS.

THE COLDEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE TONIGHT WITH LOWS PROJECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 40S AREA WIDE...WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 30S WEST OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOT MADE TO LOWS/WIND CHILLS
TONIGHT...BUT IF ANYTHING IT WAS A NUDGE IN A MILDER DIRECTION. AS
SUCH...AM NOT EXPECTING FROST ANYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

GIVEN THE PREVAILING NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW REGIME...MOISTURE
RETURN WILL BE LACKING AHEAD OF THE NEXT TWO AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTS. AS SUCH...DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WITH
JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE GULF COAST MON
NIGHT.

BUILDING SURF IS FORECAST ALONG ESPECIALLY THE PALM BEACHES
OVERNIGHT-MON. SEE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
SOME BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE THERE. THE RIP CURRENT RISK
WILL BE HIGH ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
EVENING...POSSIBLY INTO TUESDAY. /GREGORIA

&&

.MARINE...
AN INTENSE OCEANIC LOW OFF THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA.
WIND FIELDS/FETCH ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS LOW WILL SEND A
SWELL INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDING OVERNIGHT AND
PEAKING MONDAY AFTERNOON. NWPS OUTPUT SHOWS A 10-12 SECOND SWELL
OF 4-6 FT OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF
AND POSSIBLE MINOR BEACH EROSION ALONG ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN
PALM BEACH COAST. SURF HEIGHT IS FORECAST TO PEAK AT 6-8 FT...AND
THIS IS UNDER THE 10 FT HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER, A
DANGEROUS SURF ZONE WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MON EVENING...AND
POSSIBLY THROUGH TUESDAY AS THE SWELL SLOWLY FADES. THE SWELL
LESSENS WITH DISTANCE DOWN THE COAST.

THE GALE WARNING WAS CANCELLED FOR THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS
AS A SUBSIDING WIND TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL WATERS THIS
EVENING, DROPPING FOR ALL BUT THE ATLANTIC WATERS OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT-MONDAY ONLY TO PICK UP AGAIN MONDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE LOCAL MARINE AREA
WITH NEAR GALE FORCE CONDITIONS AGAIN POSSIBLE NORTHERN AREAS.
/GREGORIA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  42  66  51  68 /   0   0  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  45  66  55  69 /   0   0  10   0
MIAMI            45  66  56  68 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           45  64  58  63 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 071748 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1248 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE TAF SITES.
THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT
OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 5 KNOTS. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN
IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

UPDATE...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY PUSHING THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO DISSIPATE BY NOON...AND
ALLOW FOR THE SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT FROM
THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
THE METRO AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S OVER THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE IT COULD FALL DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT IN WIND
PROTECTED AREAS.

THE WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS OVER THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S DUE TO THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN IN THE
20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE...EXCEPT FOR
THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE BEEN 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE. THEREFORE...THE
SCA WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY EXCEPT
FOR THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS WHERE THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR
BOTH COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AN NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&
UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING
AND VIS SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF
SITE WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARED THE REGION EARLIER TONIGHT...AND FINAL BAND OF
POST-FRONTAL SHWRS ARE ENTERING EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE...COMMENCING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND SHOULD
FALL INTO 40S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR...THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD BE COOLEST DAY OF
SEASON...WITH MINIMA TONIGHT REACHING UPPER 30S HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES...L/M40S MOST AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE A
BIT COOLER. WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR 10
MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY MONDAY MORNINGS.
WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION...EVEN IF TEMPERATURES CAN
FALL LOW ENOUGH /36-38F/ TO SUPPORT FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML.

RIP CURRENT RISK WILL RE REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH FOR BOTH
COASTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT PRESENT...HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COOL AND DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
FRONTS/HIGH PRESSURE SURGES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME PATCHY -RA ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUGGESTS LINGERING IFR
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BREAK OUT AFTER
12Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRATOCU AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON.

WNW WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP TO 8-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18KTS
CURRENTLY, INCREASING AFTER 12Z-14Z TO NW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS DIMINISHES AFTER
21Z THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 10KTS UNTIL
AFTER 08/00Z.

MARINE...
NW WIND 20 TO 25 KT...GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE...LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT WARRANTS GALE WARNING FOR WATERS
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY...OTHERWISE SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WAVES PERSIST INTO MONDAY ON ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHERE SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUING. MOST LIKELY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE/WIND KEEP WAVES
HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  41  67  49 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  44  67  54 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            65  45  66  54 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           62  45  64  58 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-
     172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 071748 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1248 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE TAF SITES.
THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT
OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 5 KNOTS. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN
IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

UPDATE...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY PUSHING THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO DISSIPATE BY NOON...AND
ALLOW FOR THE SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT FROM
THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
THE METRO AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S OVER THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE IT COULD FALL DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT IN WIND
PROTECTED AREAS.

THE WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS OVER THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S DUE TO THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN IN THE
20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE...EXCEPT FOR
THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE BEEN 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE. THEREFORE...THE
SCA WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY EXCEPT
FOR THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS WHERE THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR
BOTH COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AN NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&
UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING
AND VIS SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF
SITE WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARED THE REGION EARLIER TONIGHT...AND FINAL BAND OF
POST-FRONTAL SHWRS ARE ENTERING EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE...COMMENCING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND SHOULD
FALL INTO 40S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR...THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD BE COOLEST DAY OF
SEASON...WITH MINIMA TONIGHT REACHING UPPER 30S HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES...L/M40S MOST AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE A
BIT COOLER. WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR 10
MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY MONDAY MORNINGS.
WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION...EVEN IF TEMPERATURES CAN
FALL LOW ENOUGH /36-38F/ TO SUPPORT FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML.

RIP CURRENT RISK WILL RE REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH FOR BOTH
COASTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT PRESENT...HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COOL AND DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
FRONTS/HIGH PRESSURE SURGES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME PATCHY -RA ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUGGESTS LINGERING IFR
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BREAK OUT AFTER
12Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRATOCU AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON.

WNW WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP TO 8-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18KTS
CURRENTLY, INCREASING AFTER 12Z-14Z TO NW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS DIMINISHES AFTER
21Z THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 10KTS UNTIL
AFTER 08/00Z.

MARINE...
NW WIND 20 TO 25 KT...GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE...LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT WARRANTS GALE WARNING FOR WATERS
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY...OTHERWISE SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WAVES PERSIST INTO MONDAY ON ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHERE SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUING. MOST LIKELY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE/WIND KEEP WAVES
HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  41  67  49 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  44  67  54 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            65  45  66  54 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           62  45  64  58 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-
     172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 071748 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1248 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE TAF SITES.
THE NORTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS TONIGHT
OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES...EXCEPT FOR KAPF TAF SITE WHERE THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE BELOW 5 KNOTS. THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN
IN THE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

UPDATE...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY PUSHING THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO DISSIPATE BY NOON...AND
ALLOW FOR THE SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT FROM
THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
THE METRO AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S OVER THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE IT COULD FALL DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT IN WIND
PROTECTED AREAS.

THE WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS OVER THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S DUE TO THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN IN THE
20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE...EXCEPT FOR
THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE BEEN 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE. THEREFORE...THE
SCA WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY EXCEPT
FOR THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS WHERE THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR
BOTH COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AN NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&
UPDATED...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING
AND VIS SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF
SITE WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARED THE REGION EARLIER TONIGHT...AND FINAL BAND OF
POST-FRONTAL SHWRS ARE ENTERING EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE...COMMENCING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND SHOULD
FALL INTO 40S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR...THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD BE COOLEST DAY OF
SEASON...WITH MINIMA TONIGHT REACHING UPPER 30S HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES...L/M40S MOST AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE A
BIT COOLER. WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR 10
MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY MONDAY MORNINGS.
WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION...EVEN IF TEMPERATURES CAN
FALL LOW ENOUGH /36-38F/ TO SUPPORT FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML.

RIP CURRENT RISK WILL RE REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH FOR BOTH
COASTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT PRESENT...HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COOL AND DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
FRONTS/HIGH PRESSURE SURGES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME PATCHY -RA ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUGGESTS LINGERING IFR
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BREAK OUT AFTER
12Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRATOCU AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON.

WNW WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP TO 8-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18KTS
CURRENTLY, INCREASING AFTER 12Z-14Z TO NW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS DIMINISHES AFTER
21Z THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 10KTS UNTIL
AFTER 08/00Z.

MARINE...
NW WIND 20 TO 25 KT...GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE...LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT WARRANTS GALE WARNING FOR WATERS
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY...OTHERWISE SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WAVES PERSIST INTO MONDAY ON ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHERE SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUING. MOST LIKELY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE/WIND KEEP WAVES
HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  41  67  49 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  44  67  54 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            65  45  66  54 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           62  45  64  58 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-
     172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 071345 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
845 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY PUSHING THE
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST NORTHEAST AND
AWAY FROM FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TO DISSIPATE BY NOON...AND
ALLOW FOR THE SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
WITH BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHWEST WINDS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT FROM
THE NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OVER THE
INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH OVER
THE METRO AREAS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
SET UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT...AND ALLOW FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL TO AROUND 40 OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS AND INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 40S OVER THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE IT COULD FALL DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME PATCHY FROST OVER
THE NORTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT IN WIND
PROTECTED AREAS.

THE WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AS THE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 5 MPH. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TO THIS IS OVER THE METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S DUE TO THE NORTHWEST WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 10 MPH.

THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN IN THE
20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE...EXCEPT FOR
THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS WHERE THE WINDS HAVE BEEN 25 TO 30
KNOTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE GALE FORCE RANGE. THEREFORE...THE
SCA WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY EXCEPT
FOR THE OFFSHORE PALM BEACH WATERS WHERE THE GALE WARNING WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR
BOTH COASTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AN NO OTHER CHANGES ARE PLANNED AT
THIS TIME.

&&
.UPDATED...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING
AND VIS SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF
SITE WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARED THE REGION EARLIER TONIGHT...AND FINAL BAND OF
POST-FRONTAL SHWRS ARE ENTERING EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE...COMMENCING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND SHOULD
FALL INTO 40S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR...THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD BE COOLEST DAY OF
SEASON...WITH MINIMA TONIGHT REACHING UPPER 30S HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES...L/M40S MOST AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE A
BIT COOLER. WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR 10
MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY MONDAY MORNINGS.
WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION...EVEN IF TEMPERATURES CAN
FALL LOW ENOUGH /36-38F/ TO SUPPORT FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML.

RIP CURRENT RISK WILL RE REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH FOR BOTH
COASTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT PRESENT...HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COOL AND DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
FRONTS/HIGH PRESSURE SURGES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME PATCHY -RA ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUGGESTS LINGERING IFR
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BREAK OUT AFTER
12Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRATOCU AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON.

WNW WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP TO 8-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18KTS
CURRENTLY, INCREASING AFTER 12Z-14Z TO NW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS DIMINISHES AFTER
21Z THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 10KTS UNTIL
AFTER 08/00Z.

MARINE...
NW WIND 20 TO 25 KT...GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE...LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT WARRANTS GALE WARNING FOR WATERS
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY...OTHERWISE SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WAVES PERSIST INTO MONDAY ON ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHERE SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUING. MOST LIKELY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE/WIND KEEP WAVES
HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  63  41  67  49 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  64  44  67  54 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            65  45  66  54 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           62  45  64  58 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-
     172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 071131 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
631 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING
AND VIS SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF
SITE WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARED THE REGION EARLIER TONIGHT...AND FINAL BAND OF
POST-FRONTAL SHWRS ARE ENTERING EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE...COMMENCING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND SHOULD
FALL INTO 40S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR...THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD BE COOLEST DAY OF
SEASON...WITH MINIMA TONIGHT REACHING UPPER 30S HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES...L/M40S MOST AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE A
BIT COOLER. WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR 10
MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY MONDAY MORNINGS.
WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION...EVEN IF TEMPERATURES CAN
FALL LOW ENOUGH /36-38F/ TO SUPPORT FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML.

RIP CURRENT RISK WILL RE REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH FOR BOTH
COASTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT PRESENT...HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COOL AND DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
FRONTS/HIGH PRESSURE SURGES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME PATCHY -RA ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUGGESTS LINGERING IFR
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BREAK OUT AFTER
12Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRATOCU AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON.

WNW WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP TO 8-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18KTS
CURRENTLY, INCREASING AFTER 12Z-14Z TO NW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS DIMINISHES AFTER
21Z THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 10KTS UNTIL
AFTER 08/00Z.

MARINE...
NW WIND 20 TO 25 KT...GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE...LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT WARRANTS GALE WARNING FOR WATERS
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY...OTHERWISE SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WAVES PERSIST INTO MONDAY ON ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHERE SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUING. MOST LIKELY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE/WIND KEEP WAVES
HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  40  67  49 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  45  67  54 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            66  46  66  54 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           62  45  64  58 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88/ALM
LONG TERM....52/PS
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 071131 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
631 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KTS THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON TO 20 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE THIS
EVENING AND BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AFTER 02Z TONIGHT. THE CEILING
AND VIS SHOULD ALSO BE IN THE VFR CONDITIONS TODAY INTO TONIGHT
ALONG WITH DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS AT KAPF TAF
SITE WHERE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THROUGH 13Z.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED MOST OF THE WEEK AS A SERIES OF COLD
FRONTS CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CLEARED THE REGION EARLIER TONIGHT...AND FINAL BAND OF
POST-FRONTAL SHWRS ARE ENTERING EASTERN METROPOLITAN AREAS.
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE OFFSHORE BY SUNRISE...COMMENCING AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 50S AND SHOULD
FALL INTO 40S OVER NORTHERN INTERIOR...THEN STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F
THIS AFTERNOON...DESPITE CLEARING SKIES. SHOULD BE COOLEST DAY OF
SEASON...WITH MINIMA TONIGHT REACHING UPPER 30S HENDRY AND GLADES
COUNTIES...L/M40S MOST AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...GUSTY NW WINDS 15-25
MPH CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY...MAKING CONDITIONS FEEL QUITE A
BIT COOLER. WINDS TAPER OFF TONIGHT...BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR 10
MPH. CURRENT FORECAST HAS WIND CHILL VALUES JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS
OVER NORTHERN AREAS OF THE REGION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
FOR POTENTIAL NEED FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY EARLY MONDAY MORNINGS.
WINDS SHOULD PRECLUDE FROST FORMATION...EVEN IF TEMPERATURES CAN
FALL LOW ENOUGH /36-38F/ TO SUPPORT FROST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
EASILY REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NRML.

RIP CURRENT RISK WILL RE REMAIN AT MODERATE TO HIGH FOR BOTH
COASTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. AT PRESENT...HIGH RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS IN EFFECT FOR COLLIER COUNTY BEACHES THROUGH TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

COOL AND DRY TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH ADDITIONAL
FRONTS/HIGH PRESSURE SURGES LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN
SUNDAY. GENERALLY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO LOW 70S WITH LOWS
IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

AVIATION...
MOST OF THE STEADY RAIN HAS PUSHED EAST WITH THE
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING LEAVING SOME PATCHY -RA ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. UPSTREAM OBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SUGGESTS LINGERING IFR
CIGS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH OCCASIONAL -RA, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BECOMING MVFR 09Z-12Z. MVFR CIGS LOOK TO BREAK OUT AFTER
12Z WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING VFR. WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME
STRATOCU AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON.

WNW WINDS ALREADY PICKING UP TO 8-12KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-18KTS
CURRENTLY, INCREASING AFTER 12Z-14Z TO NW 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30KTS THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. GUSTINESS DIMINISHES AFTER
21Z THOUGH SUSTAINED WINDS SPEEDS MAY NOT DROP BELOW 10KTS UNTIL
AFTER 08/00Z.

MARINE...
NW WIND 20 TO 25 KT...GUSTS TO NEAR GALE FORCE...LIKELY THROUGH
TONIGHT. FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT WARRANTS GALE WARNING FOR WATERS
OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY...OTHERWISE SCA IN EFFECT THROUGH
TONIGHT. HAZARDOUS WAVES PERSIST INTO MONDAY ON ATLANTIC
WATERS...WHERE SEAS OF 10 TO 12 FEET WARRANT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUING. MOST LIKELY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE INTO LATE WEEK AS SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE/WIND KEEP WAVES
HIGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  40  67  49 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  67  45  67  54 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            66  46  66  54 /  10   0   0  10
NAPLES           62  45  64  58 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR FLZ069-168-172-
     173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ610-630.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ650-651-671.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ670.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR AMZ670.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ670.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY FOR GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...88/ALM
LONG TERM....52/PS
AVIATION...54/BNB




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