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000
FXUS62 KMFL 150139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME EARLIER EVENING UPDATES TO THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
TRENDS BUT NOW THINGS HAVE STABILIZED WITH GRIDS LOOKING
REASONABLE. MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING SOME DRYING BEGINNING TO
SEEP IN THE UPPER LEVELS THIS EVENING AND THIS ALREADY EVIDENT ON
THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING. SO LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
REMNANT VCSH AT PBI SHOULD BE DIMINISHED BY 0Z ISSUANCE...LEAVING
DRY FCST FOR ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTN...BUT WITH POP AROUND 30 PERCENT...LEFT
EASTERN TERMINALS DRY. SHWR/TSTM CHANCES BETTER AT APF...SO
INTRODUCED VCSH AT 16Z. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME ESE
AROUND 10 KTS MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT STARTED IN THE SOUTHERN KEYS THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND A TROPICAL WAVE
TO THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS INTO THE GULF WATERS AND THE PENINSULA...RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRIER MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR
IS ENTERING THE LAKE REGION AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
AFOREMENTONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY IN THE LAKE REGION AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. FOR THIS REASON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION SOME RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION MONDAY ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DRYING TREND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INTERIOR
REGIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY MID-WEEK AND COULD ENTER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE ENTERING THE
REGION AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK IF NOT A FEW DAYS BEYOND.

MARINE...

WINDS IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS INTO
EARLY MONDAY THEN ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATER ON
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  87  76  87 /  20  30  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  88  78  88 /  20  30  20  20
MIAMI            78  88  78  88 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  76  89 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 150139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
MADE SOME EARLIER EVENING UPDATES TO THE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
TRENDS BUT NOW THINGS HAVE STABILIZED WITH GRIDS LOOKING
REASONABLE. MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING SOME DRYING BEGINNING TO
SEEP IN THE UPPER LEVELS THIS EVENING AND THIS ALREADY EVIDENT ON
THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING. SO LOOKS LIKE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT AS
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 723 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

AVIATION...
REMNANT VCSH AT PBI SHOULD BE DIMINISHED BY 0Z ISSUANCE...LEAVING
DRY FCST FOR ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTN...BUT WITH POP AROUND 30 PERCENT...LEFT
EASTERN TERMINALS DRY. SHWR/TSTM CHANCES BETTER AT APF...SO
INTRODUCED VCSH AT 16Z. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME ESE
AROUND 10 KTS MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT STARTED IN THE SOUTHERN KEYS THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND A TROPICAL WAVE
TO THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS INTO THE GULF WATERS AND THE PENINSULA...RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRIER MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR
IS ENTERING THE LAKE REGION AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
AFOREMENTONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY IN THE LAKE REGION AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. FOR THIS REASON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION SOME RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION MONDAY ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DRYING TREND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INTERIOR
REGIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY MID-WEEK AND COULD ENTER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE ENTERING THE
REGION AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK IF NOT A FEW DAYS BEYOND.

MARINE...

WINDS IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS INTO
EARLY MONDAY THEN ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATER ON
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  87  76  87 /  20  30  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  88  78  88 /  20  30  20  20
MIAMI            78  88  78  88 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  76  89 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 142323
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
REMNANT VCSH AT PBI SHOULD BE DIMINISHED BY 0Z ISSUANCE...LEAVING
DRY FCST FOR ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTN...BUT WITH POP AROUND 30 PERCENT...LEFT
EASTERN TERMINALS DRY. SHWR/TSTM CHANCES BETTER AT APF...SO
INTRODUCED VCSH AT 16Z. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME ESE
AROUND 10 KTS MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT STARTED IN THE SOUTHERN KEYS THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND A TROPICAL WAVE
TO THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS INTO THE GULF WATERS AND THE PENINSULA...RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRIER MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR
IS ENTERING THE LAKE REGION AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
AFOREMENTONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY IN THE LAKE REGION AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. FOR THIS REASON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION SOME RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION MONDAY ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DRYING TREND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INTERIOR
REGIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY MID-WEEK AND COULD ENTER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE ENTERING THE
REGION AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK IF NOT A FEW DAYS BEYOND.

MARINE...

WINDS IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS INTO
EARLY MONDAY THEN ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATER ON
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  87  76  87 /  20  30  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  88  78  88 /  20  30  20  20
MIAMI            78  88  78  88 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  76  89 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 142323
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
723 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
REMNANT VCSH AT PBI SHOULD BE DIMINISHED BY 0Z ISSUANCE...LEAVING
DRY FCST FOR ALL TAF SITES OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS
POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTN...BUT WITH POP AROUND 30 PERCENT...LEFT
EASTERN TERMINALS DRY. SHWR/TSTM CHANCES BETTER AT APF...SO
INTRODUCED VCSH AT 16Z. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME ESE
AROUND 10 KTS MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 318 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT STARTED IN THE SOUTHERN KEYS THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND A TROPICAL WAVE
TO THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS INTO THE GULF WATERS AND THE PENINSULA...RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRIER MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR
IS ENTERING THE LAKE REGION AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
AFOREMENTONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY IN THE LAKE REGION AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. FOR THIS REASON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION SOME RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION MONDAY ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DRYING TREND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INTERIOR
REGIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY MID-WEEK AND COULD ENTER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE ENTERING THE
REGION AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK IF NOT A FEW DAYS BEYOND.

MARINE...

WINDS IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS INTO
EARLY MONDAY THEN ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATER ON
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  87  76  87 /  20  30  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  88  78  88 /  20  30  20  20
MIAMI            78  88  78  88 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  76  89 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 141918
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
318 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT STARTED IN THE SOUTHERN KEYS THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND A TROPICAL WAVE
TO THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS INTO THE GULF WATERS AND THE PENINSULA...RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRIER MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR
IS ENTERING THE LAKE REGION AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
AFOREMENTONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY IN THE LAKE REGION AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. FOR THIS REASON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION SOME RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION MONDAY ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DRYING TREND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INTERIOR
REGIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY MID-WEEK AND COULD ENTER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE ENTERING THE
REGION AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK IF NOT A FEW DAYS BEYOND.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS INTO
EARLY MONDAY THEN ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATER ON
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  87  76  87 /  20  30  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  88  78  88 /  20  30  20  20
MIAMI            78  88  78  88 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  76  89 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 141918
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
318 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAJOR SYNOPTIC FEATURES ACROSS THE REGION INCLUDE AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS...AN
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT STARTED IN THE SOUTHERN KEYS THIS MORNING
CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND A TROPICAL WAVE
TO THE EAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. WHILE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
AND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE TO
BRING CLOUDINESS INTO THE GULF WATERS AND THE PENINSULA...RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT DRIER MID TO UPPER LEVEL AIR
IS ENTERING THE LAKE REGION AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE
AFOREMENTONED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO TRIGGER
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY IN THE LAKE REGION AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE PENINSULA. FOR THIS REASON THE AFTERNOON FORECAST
WILL MAINTAIN CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PENINSULA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON MONDAY. IN ADDITION SOME RELATIVELY DRIER
AIR IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE REGION MONDAY ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST MAINLY IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO IMPACT THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. BY TUESDAY THE DRYING TREND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INTERIOR
REGIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FORECAST A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES BY MID-WEEK AND COULD ENTER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA LATER IN THE WEEK WITH DEEP MOISTURE ENTERING THE
REGION AND AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK IF NOT A FEW DAYS BEYOND.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS IN THE LOWER PORTION OF THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS INTO
EARLY MONDAY THEN ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS OR LESS LATER ON
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  87  76  87 /  20  30  20  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  88  78  88 /  20  30  20  20
MIAMI            78  88  78  88 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  76  89 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 141756
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
156 PM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS WHICH HAVE MOVED THROUGH KAPF AT VARIOUS TIMES TODAY MAY
GREATLY LIMIT CHANCES FOR THUNDER FOR THE REST OF TODAY. VCTS
COULD POSSIBLY BE REMOVED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IF CONDITIONS
PERSIST. SMALL CHCS OF THUNDER BACK EAST MEAN ONLY VCSH WILL BE
CARRIED IN THE TAFS FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT MAY HAVE TO KEEP AN
EYE ON A FEW OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH ARE MOVING EAST ATTM FROM
THE INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TONIGHT,
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SHOULD LIMIT SHOWERS AND
STORMS COMING OFF THE ATLANTIC WATERS, UNLIKE THE PAST TWO ACTIVE
OVERNIGHT PERIODS. TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST DAY, AND SMALLER THUNDER CHCS EAST COAST, WITH RELATIVELY
DRIER MID LEVEL AIR REMAINING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1035 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE INCREASING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS TO THE WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES.
THESE SHOWERS WERE PRODUCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHERN KEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOME
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED THE REGION BUT IS MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE LAKE REGION AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ADDED TO THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
METRO AREAS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SOME
LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION MAY BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

60

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  87  77  88 /  20  40  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  88  79  88 /  20  30  20  30
MIAMI            78  88  78  88 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           75  90  76  89 /  20  40  30  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 141435
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE INCREASING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS TO THE WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES.
THESE SHOWERS WERE PRODUCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHERN KEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOME
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED THE REGION BUT IS MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE LAKE REGION AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ADDED TO THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
METRO AREAS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SOME
LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION MAY BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

60

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  77  87  77 /  40  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  88  79 /  30  20  30  20
MIAMI            87  78  88  78 /  30  20  30  20
NAPLES           88  75  90  76 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 141435
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1035 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE INCREASING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF WATERS TO THE WEST OF MAINLAND MONROE AND COLLIER COUNTIES.
THESE SHOWERS WERE PRODUCED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION
IN THE SOUTHERN KEYS EARLIER THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOME
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR HAS ENTERED THE REGION BUT IS MAINLY CONFINED
TO THE LAKE REGION AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. THE AFTERNOON
FORECAST WAS UPDATED WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ADDED TO THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS AND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST
METRO AREAS. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT SOME
LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION MAY BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND COULD RESULT IN SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY.

60

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  77  87  77 /  40  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  88  79 /  30  20  30  20
MIAMI            87  78  88  78 /  30  20  30  20
NAPLES           88  75  90  76 /  60  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 141156
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
756 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...

EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TODAY, HOWEVER RELATIVELY MID LEVEL DRIER
AIR ARRIVING THIS AFTERNOON, AS SEEN ON CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGES
SHOULD KEEP PRECIP CHANCES LOW AND THUNDERSTORMS WIDELY SCATTERED
KTMB/KOPF/KMIA. AGAIN, EXPECTING BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO BE ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS AND WEST COAST. GUIDANCE HAS
BACKED OFF A BIT WITH REGARDS TO A GULF BREEZE DEVELOPING AT KAPF
THIS PM, BUT STORMS PROGRESSING ACROSS THE PENINSULA SHOULD
EVENTUALLY AFFECT THAT TERMINAL. SOME MVFR/IFR CONDS POSSIBLE
WITH TEMPO GROUPS NECESSARY THIS PM AT KAPF. ELSEWHERE, CAN`T
RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS MAINLY THIS MORNING DEVELOPING ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE EAST COAST, OR ARRIVING FROM OFFSHORE BUT WILL NOT BE
INCLUDING ANY VCTS AT THIS TIME FOR AFTERNOON STORMS, AS MOST EAST
COAST TERMINALS SHOULD BE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. ENOUGH
MID LEVEL DRIER AIR MAY REMAIN TONIGHT TO BREAK THE STRING OF WET
AND STORMY OVERNIGHTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 402 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY-TUESDAY)

THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE
REGION TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A
COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION CHARACTERIZED WITH
A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES AND TWO UPPER LOWS EAST AND WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA
EAST OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SUPPORTS THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A LARGE SHIELD OF
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THE LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER AIR FILLING IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST WITH PWATS DROPPING TOWARD 1.6" OVER THE SE FLORIDA
COAST AND INCREASING TO OVER THE 2" MARK BETWEEN NAPLES AND THE
LAKE LATER TODAY. THIS GRADIENT WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST PACKAGE SHOWING THE GREATEST RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND
BACK TOWARD NORMAL AS SOME ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES INTO
THE AREA. EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 700 MB WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THIS TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOCUSED INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

/85

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
GENERALLY INDICATES FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOCAL AREA BEFORE
STALLING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS
00Z CYCLE REGARDING THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA AND SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF OF THE GA/SC COAST BY THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL PROBABILITIES ARE PROJECTED TO SET UP AND
FOCUSING ALONG THE EAST COAST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND EACH DAY.

/85

AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING BACK INTO THE EAST COAST NEAR KFLL.
SHOWERS MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TAPER
OFF IN THE MORNING. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. SO REMOVED VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN IN THE EVENING. FOR KAPF...A WEAK GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR
KAPF IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON.

/84

MARINE...

AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH AND MAY LEAD TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  77  87  77 /  40  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  79  88  79 /  30  20  30  20
MIAMI            87  78  88  78 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           88  75  90  76 /  70  20  40  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 140803 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-TUESDAY)

THE EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE
REGION TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A
COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION CHARACTERIZED WITH
A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES AND TWO UPPER LOWS EAST AND WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA
EAST OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SUPPORTS THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A LARGE SHIELD OF
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THE LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER FILLING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WITH PWS DROPPING TOWARD 1.6" OVER THE SE FLORIDA COAST AND
INCREASING TO OVER THE 2" MARK BETWEEN NAPLES AND THE LAKE LATER
TODAY. THIS GRADIENT WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST
PACKAGE SHOWING THE GREATEST RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
LAKE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND BACK TOWARD
NORMAL AS SOME ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 700 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOCUSED INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

/85

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
GENERALLY INDICATES FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOCAL AREA BEFORE
STALLING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS
00Z CYCLE REGARDING THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA AND SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF OF THE GA/SC COAST BY THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL PROBABILITIES ARE PROJECTED TO SET UP AND
FOCUSING ALONG THE EAST COAST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND EACH DAY.

/85

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING BACK INTO THE EAST COAST NEAR KFLL.
SHOWERS MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TAPER
OFF IN THE MORNING. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. SO REMOVED VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN IN THE EVENING. FOR KAPF...A WEAK GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR
KAPF IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON.

/84

&&

.MARINE...

AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH AND MAY LEAD TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  76  87  76 /  60  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  88  79 /  50  20  50  10
MIAMI            87  78  88  78 /  50  20  50  10
NAPLES           87  76  89  76 /  60  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...85/AG
AVIATION....84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 140802
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-TUESDAY)

THE EARLIER MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE
REGION TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A
COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION CHARACTERIZED WITH
A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES AND TWO UPPER LOWS EAST AND WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA
EAST OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SUPPORTS THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A LARGE SHIELD OF
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THE LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER FILLING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WITH PWS DROPPING TOWARD 1.6" OVER THE SE FLORIDA COAST AND
INCREASING TO OVER THE 2" MARK BETWEEN NAPLES AND THE LAKE LATER
TODAY. THIS GRADIENT WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST
PACKAGE SHOWING THE GREATEST RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
LAKE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND BACK TOWARD
NORMAL AS SOME ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 700 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOCUSED INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

/85

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
GENERALLY INDICATES FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOCAL AREA BEFORE
STALLING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS
00Z CYCLE REGARDING THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA AND SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF OF THE GA/SC COAST BY THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL PROBABILITIES ARE PROJECTED TO SET UP AND
FOCUSING ALONG THE EAST COAST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND EACH DAY.

/85

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING BACK INTO THE EAST COAST NEAR KFLL.
SHOWERS MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TAPER
OFF IN THE MORNING. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. SO REMOVED VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN IN THE EVENING. FOR KAPF...A WEAK GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR
KAPF IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON.

/84

&&

.MARINE...

AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH AND MAY LEAD TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  76  87  76 /  60  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  88  79 /  50  20  50  10
MIAMI            87  78  88  78 /  50  20  50  10
NAPLES           87  76  89  76 /  60  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...85/AG
AVIATION....84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 140802
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
402 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-TUESDAY)

THE EARLIER MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE
REGION TO THE NORTH AND A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A
COMPLEX MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION CHARACTERIZED WITH
A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM EAST TO WEST OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES AND TWO UPPER LOWS EAST AND WEST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
PLENTY OF MID-UPPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH OVER THE AREA
EAST OF THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH SUPPORTS THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE ATLANTIC AND EAST COAST
LOCATIONS THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN HAS INITIALIZED
WELL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND GENERALLY INDICATES A LARGE SHIELD OF
MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN REMAINING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MID-
MORNING HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING. LATER THIS AFTERNOON THE LATEST
MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DRIER FILLING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST
WITH PWS DROPPING TOWARD 1.6" OVER THE SE FLORIDA COAST AND
INCREASING TO OVER THE 2" MARK BETWEEN NAPLES AND THE LAKE LATER
TODAY. THIS GRADIENT WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE LATEST FORECAST
PACKAGE SHOWING THE GREATEST RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
LAKE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO TREND BACK TOWARD
NORMAL AS SOME ADDITIONAL MID-LEVEL DRY AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA.
EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW UP TO 700 MB WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS
TIME...WHICH WILL KEEP THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FOCUSED INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING.

/85

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
GENERALLY INDICATES FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING
UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO
SHIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARD AND POSSIBLY INTO THE LOCAL AREA BEFORE
STALLING. THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THIS
00Z CYCLE REGARDING THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE WRAPPING AROUND
THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH NORTH OF THE AREA AND SFC WAVE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY OFF OF THE GA/SC COAST BY THURSDAY.
THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A WET PATTERN FOR SOUTH FLORIDA WITH SW LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY AND PLENTY OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
THE HIGHEST RAINFALL PROBABILITIES ARE PROJECTED TO SET UP AND
FOCUSING ALONG THE EAST COAST AREAS EACH AFTERNOON GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND EACH DAY.

/85

&&

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING BACK INTO THE EAST COAST NEAR KFLL.
SHOWERS MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TAPER
OFF IN THE MORNING. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. SO REMOVED VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN
DIMINISH AGAIN IN THE EVENING. FOR KAPF...A WEAK GULF COAST SEA
BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR
KAPF IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE IN THE AFTERNOON.

/84

&&

.MARINE...

AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTH AND MAY LEAD TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS BY THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  76  87  76 /  60  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  88  79 /  50  20  50  10
MIAMI            87  78  88  78 /  50  20  50  10
NAPLES           87  76  89  76 /  60  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...85/AG
AVIATION....84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 140546
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING BACK INTO THE EAST COAST NEAR KFLL.
SHOWERS MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TAPER
OFF IN THE MORNING. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. SO REMOVED VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISH AGAIN IN THE EVENING. FOR KAPF...A
WEAK GULF COAST SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR KAPF IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

UPDATE...
DEEP TROPICAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS
EVIDENCED ON THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING THIS EVENING. THE PWAT IS JUST
OVER TWO INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR MID
SEPTEMBER. SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES ALSO REFLECT THIS WITH
AMPLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSRA. SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP HIGH END CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXITED CUBA
THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGRESSING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. TEMPO TSRA GROUPS FOR ALL MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS
THROUGH 2Z...WITH VCTS AREAWIDE UNTIL 6Z. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...35
KNOTS CANT BE RULED OUT...AND SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BY MIDNIGHT...UNCERTAIN ON SHWR/TSTM COVERAGE
AS GUIDANCES SUGGESTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE WITH
VCSH...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF THUNDER QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING LAST NIGHT HAD SIMILAR ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REINVIGORATE BY LATE MORNING. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...ESE WINDS 5
KTS OVERNIGHT...10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BOTH THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS
EVENING AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

OVER NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THE MORE RECENT GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
INDICATING THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH LOW LEVEL MASS AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SPEED DIVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAY TIME HEATING AND
WITH THE LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INLAND AND WEST.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE REGION ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE THE PENINSULA. THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LATE NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE
COULD EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD LOCAL CONVECTION.

MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
SLOWLY DECREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY.
REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  76  87  76 /  60  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  88  79 /  50  20  50  10
MIAMI            87  78  88  78 /  50  20  50  10
NAPLES           87  76  89  76 /  60  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 140546
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
146 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE ONGOING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS...AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE MOVING BACK INTO THE EAST COAST NEAR KFLL.
SHOWERS MAY MOVE BACK INTO THE EAST COAST OVERNIGHT AND THEN TAPER
OFF IN THE MORNING. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE
IS INDICATING DRIER AIR MAY BEGIN MOVING INTO THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. SO REMOVED VCTS FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LIGHT WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN DIMINISH AGAIN IN THE EVENING. FOR KAPF...A
WEAK GULF COAST SEA BREEZE MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCE OF STORMS NEAR KAPF IS ALSO FORECAST TO BE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 927 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

UPDATE...
DEEP TROPICAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS
EVIDENCED ON THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING THIS EVENING. THE PWAT IS JUST
OVER TWO INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR MID
SEPTEMBER. SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES ALSO REFLECT THIS WITH
AMPLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSRA. SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP HIGH END CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXITED CUBA
THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGRESSING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. TEMPO TSRA GROUPS FOR ALL MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS
THROUGH 2Z...WITH VCTS AREAWIDE UNTIL 6Z. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...35
KNOTS CANT BE RULED OUT...AND SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BY MIDNIGHT...UNCERTAIN ON SHWR/TSTM COVERAGE
AS GUIDANCES SUGGESTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE WITH
VCSH...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF THUNDER QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING LAST NIGHT HAD SIMILAR ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REINVIGORATE BY LATE MORNING. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...ESE WINDS 5
KTS OVERNIGHT...10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BOTH THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS
EVENING AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

OVER NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THE MORE RECENT GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
INDICATING THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH LOW LEVEL MASS AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SPEED DIVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAY TIME HEATING AND
WITH THE LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INLAND AND WEST.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE REGION ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE THE PENINSULA. THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LATE NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE
COULD EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD LOCAL CONVECTION.

MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
SLOWLY DECREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY.
REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  76  87  76 /  60  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  79  88  79 /  50  20  50  10
MIAMI            87  78  88  78 /  50  20  50  10
NAPLES           87  76  89  76 /  60  20  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 140127
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
927 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
DEEP TROPICAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS
EVIDENCED ON THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING THIS EVENING. THE PWAT IS JUST
OVER TWO INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR MID
SEPTEMBER. SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES ALSO REFLECT THIS WITH
AMPLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSRA. SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP HIGH END CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXITED CUBA
THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGRESSING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. TEMPO TSRA GROUPS FOR ALL MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS
THROUGH 2Z...WITH VCTS AREAWIDE UNTIL 6Z. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...35
KNOTS CANT BE RULED OUT...AND SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BY MIDNIGHT...UNCERTAIN ON SHWR/TSTM COVERAGE
AS GUIDANCES SUGGESTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE WITH
VCSH...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF THUNDER QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING LAST NIGHT HAD SIMILAR ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REINVIGORATE BY LATE MORNING. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...ESE WINDS 5
KTS OVERNIGHT...10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BOTH THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS
EVENING AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

OVER NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THE MORE RECENT GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
INDICATING THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH LOW LEVEL MASS AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SPEED DIVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAY TIME HEATING AND
WITH THE LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INLAND AND WEST.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE REGION ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE THE PENINSULA. THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LATE NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE
COULD EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD LOCAL CONVECTION.

MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
SLOWLY DECREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY.
REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  86  76  87 /  40  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  79  88 /  50  50  20  50
MIAMI            77  87  78  88 /  50  50  20  50
NAPLES           75  87  76  89 /  40  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 140127
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
927 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
DEEP TROPICAL FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AS
EVIDENCED ON THE 00Z MFL SOUNDING THIS EVENING. THE PWAT IS JUST
OVER TWO INCHES WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR MID
SEPTEMBER. SATELLITE AND RADAR SIGNATURES ALSO REFLECT THIS WITH
AMPLE SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH SOME EMBEDDED TSRA. SO NO CHANGES ARE
PLANNED AT THIS TIME AND WILL KEEP HIGH END CHANCES FOR RAIN
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 812 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXITED CUBA
THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGRESSING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. TEMPO TSRA GROUPS FOR ALL MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS
THROUGH 2Z...WITH VCTS AREAWIDE UNTIL 6Z. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...35
KNOTS CANT BE RULED OUT...AND SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BY MIDNIGHT...UNCERTAIN ON SHWR/TSTM COVERAGE
AS GUIDANCES SUGGESTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE WITH
VCSH...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF THUNDER QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING LAST NIGHT HAD SIMILAR ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REINVIGORATE BY LATE MORNING. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...ESE WINDS 5
KTS OVERNIGHT...10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BOTH THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS
EVENING AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

OVER NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THE MORE RECENT GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
INDICATING THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH LOW LEVEL MASS AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SPEED DIVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAY TIME HEATING AND
WITH THE LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INLAND AND WEST.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE REGION ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE THE PENINSULA. THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LATE NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE
COULD EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD LOCAL CONVECTION.

MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
SLOWLY DECREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY.
REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  86  76  87 /  40  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  79  88 /  50  50  20  50
MIAMI            77  87  78  88 /  50  50  20  50
NAPLES           75  87  76  89 /  40  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 140012
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
812 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXITED CUBA
THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGRESSING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. TEMPO TSRA GROUPS FOR ALL MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS
THROUGH 2Z...WITH VCTS AREAWIDE UNTIL 6Z. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...35
KNOTS CANT BE RULED OUT...AND SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BY MIDNIGHT...UNCERTAIN ON SHWR/TSTM COVERAGE
AS GUIDANCES SUGGESTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE WITH
VCSH...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF THUNDER QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING LAST NIGHT HAD SIMILAR ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REINVIGORATE BY LATE MORNING. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...ESE WINDS 5
KTS OVERNIGHT...10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BOTH THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS
EVENING AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

OVER NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THE MORE RECENT GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
INDICATING THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH LOW LEVEL MASS AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SPEED DIVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAY TIME HEATING AND
WITH THE LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INLAND AND WEST.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE REGION ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE THE PENINSULA. THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LATE NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE
COULD EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD LOCAL CONVECTION.

MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
SLOWLY DECREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY.
REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  86  76  87 /  40  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  79  88 /  50  50  20  50
MIAMI            77  87  78  88 /  50  50  20  50
NAPLES           75  87  76  89 /  40  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 140012
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
812 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
EXTENSIVE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT EXITED CUBA
THIS AFTERNOON IS PROGRESSING INTO MIAMI-DADE COUNTY AT TAF
ISSUANCE TIME. TEMPO TSRA GROUPS FOR ALL MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS
THROUGH 2Z...WITH VCTS AREAWIDE UNTIL 6Z. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...35
KNOTS CANT BE RULED OUT...AND SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. BY MIDNIGHT...UNCERTAIN ON SHWR/TSTM COVERAGE
AS GUIDANCES SUGGESTS CLIMATOLOGICALLY UNUSUAL OCCURRENCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE WITH
VCSH...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF THUNDER QUITE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING LAST NIGHT HAD SIMILAR ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
REINVIGORATE BY LATE MORNING. AWAY FROM CONVECTION...ESE WINDS 5
KTS OVERNIGHT...10-15 KTS SUNDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BOTH THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS
EVENING AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

OVER NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THE MORE RECENT GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
INDICATING THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH LOW LEVEL MASS AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SPEED DIVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAY TIME HEATING AND
WITH THE LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INLAND AND WEST.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE REGION ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE THE PENINSULA. THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LATE NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE
COULD EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD LOCAL CONVECTION.

MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
SLOWLY DECREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY.
REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  86  76  87 /  40  60  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  88  79  88 /  50  50  20  50
MIAMI            77  87  78  88 /  50  50  20  50
NAPLES           75  87  76  89 /  40  60  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 131948
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
348 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BOTH THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS
EVENING AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

OVER NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THE MORE RECENT GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
INDICATING THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH LOW LEVEL MASS AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SPEED DIVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAY TIME HEATING AND
WITH THE LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INLAND AND WEST.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE REGION ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE THE PENINSULA. THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LATE NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE
COULD EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD LOCAL CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
SLOWLY DECREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY.
REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  86  76 /  50  40  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  77  88  79 /  50  50  50  20
MIAMI            87  77  87  78 /  50  50  50  20
NAPLES           89  75  87  76 /  70  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 131948
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
348 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...BOTH THE GLOBAL
MODELS AND THE LATEST HRRR RUN...INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS THIS
EVENING AND AFFECT THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR RETURNS INDICATE THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY UNDERWAY WITH BANDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OBSERVED ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

OVER NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL GULF. THE MORE RECENT GUIDANCE HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN
INDICATING THAT DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS WITH LOW LEVEL MASS AND
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IN ADDITION THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
SPEED DIVERGENCE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DAY TIME HEATING AND
WITH THE LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ON SUNDAY WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED INLAND AND WEST.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO
ENTER THE REGION ALTHOUGH THE GUIDANCE CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE THE PENINSULA. THE EXTENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT LATE NEXT WEEK DEEP MOISTURE
COULD EXTEND FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENING INTO THE CENTRAL GULF. THIS PATTERN IS
FORECAST TO LINGER INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD LOCAL CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...

MAINLY EASTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
SLOWLY DECREASING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE REMAINING EASTERLY.
REGIONAL SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE MAINLY AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  86  76 /  50  40  60  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  77  88  79 /  50  50  50  20
MIAMI            87  77  87  78 /  50  50  50  20
NAPLES           89  75  87  76 /  70  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 131728
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
128 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. QUESTIONABLE IF EAST COAST TERMINALS WILL FALL BEHIND THE
SEA BREEZE, WITH ONLY SHOWERS THE REST OF TODAY, OR WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH VCTS IS
IN THE TAFS, IT MAY BE REMOVED LATER IF STORMS DON`T FIRE.
THEREFORE, DID NOT INCLUDE ANY TEMPO GROUPS ATTM. FEELING MORE
CONFIDENT ABOUT DEVELOPMENT AT APF, AS SEA BREEZE/STORMS MOVE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. LIKE LAST NIGHT, ACTUALLY EXPECTING MORE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT AS EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES. ANOTHER STRONGER VORT MAX NEAR NASSAU WILL ARRIVE JUST
EAST OF BISCAYNE BAY TONIGHT. THE HRRR/NAM/GFS ALL PINPOINTING
THIS DISTURBANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/NUMEROUS STORMS FROM 0Z-6Z,
WHICH COULD VERY WELL SURVIVE INTO KTMB/KMIA/KOPF TONIGHT.
THEREFORE, LEFT VCTS IN THROUGH PART OF THE EVENING, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR/IFR IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. FARTHER NORTH
ALONG THE EAST COAST, VCSH WAS USED BUT AGAIN POSSIBLE THAT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECT THOSE TAF SITES TOO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

UPDATE...

WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION
CONTINUES. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ACTIVE
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT
AROUND 1.9 INCHES AND INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IN THE
MID LEVELS AS WELL. GIVEN THE GENERAL CLEARING TREND OVER THE
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...DAY TIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...INCLUDING
THE NAPLES METRO AREAS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...

RATHER DISORGANIZED UPPER LOW, WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES TRAILING
TO THE EAST, WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR STORMS TODAY. LARGE MASS OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER WATER VAPOR LOOP, MAY STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION TODAY, UNLIKE YESTERDAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THIS DRY AIR WILL
WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW, BUT THAT MAY NOT MEAN
MUCH SINCE THE LOW IS ALREADY OFF THE SW FL COAST. LAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST,
PERHAPS KEEPING MOST CONVECTION INLAND AND WEST COAST. THIS IS UP
AGAINST THE HRRR WHICH IS AGGRESSIVE PAINTING STORMS ALONG THE
BEACHES AND MOST TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE TAFS CAN BE FINE
TUNED ONCE RAOB DATA ARRIVES, BUT WILL INSERT VCTS FOR NOW, AS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS, BUT TAFS ONLY
CONTAINED VCSH. PERHAPS SOME OF THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF PBI ARRIVE
LATER THIS MORNING. PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD COVER ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL ALSO GO A LONG WAY IN DETERMINING STORM EVOLUTION
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MONDAY)

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN APPEARS
TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND GENERALLY
INDICATES THIS MORNING ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE BEFORE SHIFTING
INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE WITH THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING UP THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAINFALL (AREAS HAVE
RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 7" JUST INLAND OF
BOCA RATON OVER THE PAST 24-36 HRS). MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OR TOWARD
MIAMI THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MAINLY
SATURATED PROFILES ABOVE A SLIGHTLY DRIER LAYER FROM THE SURFACE
TO 700MB. AS A RESULT...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO GUIDANCE...MAINLY DUE TO
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE ANTICIPATED. IF THIS COVERAGE BEGINS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. THE MOIST TREND WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

/85

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE AND GENERALLY INDICATES FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE MORE
BULLISH SOLUTION AND SHOWS THE MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY PROGRESSING FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
WITH SSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS ALONG WITH SSW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD FAVOR MUCH OF THE RAINFALL SETTING UP OVER THE
EAST COAST/METRO AREAS BY THURSDAY.

/85

AVIATION...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WERE DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MOVING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TAF SITES...AND THEY MAY MOVE OVER THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST TODAY AND HAVE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY
LIMIT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...SO KEPT VCTS IN FOR THE TAF SITES. AT KAPF...SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW INCREASES. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY.

/84

MARINE...

AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  76  87 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  79  88 /  40  60  20  50
MIAMI            77  87  78  88 /  40  60  20  50
NAPLES           75  89  76  89 /  30  60  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 131728
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
128 PM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...

SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER ARE NOW DEVELOPING NEAR THE EAST
COAST TERMINALS, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. QUESTIONABLE IF EAST COAST TERMINALS WILL FALL BEHIND THE
SEA BREEZE, WITH ONLY SHOWERS THE REST OF TODAY, OR WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF THE BAHAMAS. ALTHOUGH VCTS IS
IN THE TAFS, IT MAY BE REMOVED LATER IF STORMS DON`T FIRE.
THEREFORE, DID NOT INCLUDE ANY TEMPO GROUPS ATTM. FEELING MORE
CONFIDENT ABOUT DEVELOPMENT AT APF, AS SEA BREEZE/STORMS MOVE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. LIKE LAST NIGHT, ACTUALLY EXPECTING MORE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVERNIGHT AS EASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES. ANOTHER STRONGER VORT MAX NEAR NASSAU WILL ARRIVE JUST
EAST OF BISCAYNE BAY TONIGHT. THE HRRR/NAM/GFS ALL PINPOINTING
THIS DISTURBANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/NUMEROUS STORMS FROM 0Z-6Z,
WHICH COULD VERY WELL SURVIVE INTO KTMB/KMIA/KOPF TONIGHT.
THEREFORE, LEFT VCTS IN THROUGH PART OF THE EVENING, WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MVFR/IFR IF GUIDANCE IS CORRECT. FARTHER NORTH
ALONG THE EAST COAST, VCSH WAS USED BUT AGAIN POSSIBLE THAT NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS AFFECT THOSE TAF SITES TOO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1105 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

UPDATE...

WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION
CONTINUES. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ACTIVE
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT
AROUND 1.9 INCHES AND INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IN THE
MID LEVELS AS WELL. GIVEN THE GENERAL CLEARING TREND OVER THE
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...DAY TIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...INCLUDING
THE NAPLES METRO AREAS.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...

RATHER DISORGANIZED UPPER LOW, WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES TRAILING
TO THE EAST, WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR STORMS TODAY. LARGE MASS OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER WATER VAPOR LOOP, MAY STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION TODAY, UNLIKE YESTERDAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THIS DRY AIR WILL
WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW, BUT THAT MAY NOT MEAN
MUCH SINCE THE LOW IS ALREADY OFF THE SW FL COAST. LAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST,
PERHAPS KEEPING MOST CONVECTION INLAND AND WEST COAST. THIS IS UP
AGAINST THE HRRR WHICH IS AGGRESSIVE PAINTING STORMS ALONG THE
BEACHES AND MOST TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE TAFS CAN BE FINE
TUNED ONCE RAOB DATA ARRIVES, BUT WILL INSERT VCTS FOR NOW, AS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS, BUT TAFS ONLY
CONTAINED VCSH. PERHAPS SOME OF THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF PBI ARRIVE
LATER THIS MORNING. PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD COVER ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL ALSO GO A LONG WAY IN DETERMINING STORM EVOLUTION
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MONDAY)

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN APPEARS
TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND GENERALLY
INDICATES THIS MORNING ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE BEFORE SHIFTING
INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE WITH THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING UP THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAINFALL (AREAS HAVE
RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 7" JUST INLAND OF
BOCA RATON OVER THE PAST 24-36 HRS). MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OR TOWARD
MIAMI THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MAINLY
SATURATED PROFILES ABOVE A SLIGHTLY DRIER LAYER FROM THE SURFACE
TO 700MB. AS A RESULT...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO GUIDANCE...MAINLY DUE TO
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE ANTICIPATED. IF THIS COVERAGE BEGINS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. THE MOIST TREND WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

/85

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE AND GENERALLY INDICATES FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE MORE
BULLISH SOLUTION AND SHOWS THE MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY PROGRESSING FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
WITH SSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS ALONG WITH SSW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD FAVOR MUCH OF THE RAINFALL SETTING UP OVER THE
EAST COAST/METRO AREAS BY THURSDAY.

/85

AVIATION...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WERE DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MOVING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TAF SITES...AND THEY MAY MOVE OVER THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST TODAY AND HAVE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY
LIMIT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...SO KEPT VCTS IN FOR THE TAF SITES. AT KAPF...SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW INCREASES. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY.

/84

MARINE...

AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  76  87 /  30  50  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  79  88 /  40  60  20  50
MIAMI            77  87  78  88 /  40  60  20  50
NAPLES           75  89  76  89 /  30  60  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 131505
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1105 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...

WHILE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS SUBSIDED ACROSS THE
REGION THIS MORNING...THE POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION
CONTINUES. RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ACTIVE
CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN GULF ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ISLANDS. THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATED A PWAT
AROUND 1.9 INCHES AND INDICATED A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND IN THE
MID LEVELS AS WELL. GIVEN THE GENERAL CLEARING TREND OVER THE
PENINSULA THIS MORNING...DAY TIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH THE GREATEST
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
WESTERN INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA...INCLUDING
THE NAPLES METRO AREAS.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 830 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

AVIATION...

RATHER DISORGANIZED UPPER LOW, WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES TRAILING
TO THE EAST, WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR STORMS TODAY. LARGE MASS OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER WATER VAPOR LOOP, MAY STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION TODAY, UNLIKE YESTERDAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THIS DRY AIR WILL
WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW, BUT THAT MAY NOT MEAN
MUCH SINCE THE LOW IS ALREADY OFF THE SW FL COAST. LAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST,
PERHAPS KEEPING MOST CONVECTION INLAND AND WEST COAST. THIS IS UP
AGAINST THE HRRR WHICH IS AGGRESSIVE PAINTING STORMS ALONG THE
BEACHES AND MOST TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE TAFS CAN BE FINE
TUNED ONCE RAOB DATA ARRIVES, BUT WILL INSERT VCTS FOR NOW, AS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS, BUT TAFS ONLY
CONTAINED VCSH. PERHAPS SOME OF THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF PBI ARRIVE
LATER THIS MORNING. PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD COVER ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL ALSO GO A LONG WAY IN DETERMINING STORM EVOLUTION
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MONDAY)

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY
.ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN APPEARS
TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND GENERALLY
INDICATES THIS MORNING ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE BEFORE SHIFTING
INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE WITH THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING UP THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAINFALL (AREAS HAVE
RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 7" JUST INLAND OF
BOCA RATON OVER THE PAST 24-36 HRS). MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OR TOWARD
MIAMI THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MAINLY
SATURATED PROFILES ABOVE A SLIGHTLY DRIER LAYER FROM THE SURFACE
TO 700MB. AS A RESULT...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO GUIDANCE...MAINLY DUE TO
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE ANTICIPATED. IF THIS COVERAGE BEGINS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. THE MOIST TREND WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

/85

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE AND GENERALLY INDICATES FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE MORE
BULLISH SOLUTION AND SHOWS THE MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY PROGRESSING FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
WITH SSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS ALONG WITH SSW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD FAVOR MUCH OF THE RAINFALL SETTING UP OVER THE
EAST COAST/METRO AREAS BY THURSDAY.

/85

AVIATION...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WERE DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MOVING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TAF SITES...AND THEY MAY MOVE OVER THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST TODAY AND HAVE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY
LIMIT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...SO KEPT VCTS IN FOR THE TAF SITES. AT KAPF...SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW INCREASES. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY.

/84

MARINE...

AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  87  76 /  40  30  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  77  87  79 /  40  40  60  20
MIAMI            85  77  87  78 /  40  40  60  20
NAPLES           87  75  89  76 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 131230
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...

RATHER DISORGANIZED UPPER LOW, WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES TRAILING
TO THE EAST, WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR STORMS TODAY. LARGE MASS OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER WATER VAPOR LOOP, MAY STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION TODAY, UNLIKE YESTERDAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THIS DRY AIR WILL
WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW, BUT THAT MAY NOT MEAN
MUCH SINCE THE LOW IS ALREADY OFF THE SW FL COAST. LAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST,
PERHAPS KEEPING MOST CONVECTION INLAND AND WEST COAST. THIS IS UP
AGAINST THE HRRR WHICH IS AGGRESSIVE PAINTING STORMS ALONG THE
BEACHES AND MOST TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE TAFS CAN BE FINE
TUNED ONCE RAOB DATA ARRIVES, BUT WILL INSERT VCTS FOR NOW, AS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS, BUT TAFS ONLY
CONTAINED VCSH. PERHAPS SOME OF THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF PBI ARRIVE
LATER THIS MORNING. PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD COVER ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL ALSO GO A LONG WAY IN DETERMINING STORM EVOLUTION
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MONDAY)

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY
..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN APPEARS
TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND GENERALLY
INDICATES THIS MORNING ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE BEFORE SHIFTING
INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE WITH THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING UP THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAINFALL (AREAS HAVE
RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 7" JUST INLAND OF
BOCA RATON OVER THE PAST 24-36 HRS). MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OR TOWARD
MIAMI THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MAINLY
SATURATED PROFILES ABOVE A SLIGHTLY DRIER LAYER FROM THE SURFACE
TO 700MB. AS A RESULT...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO GUIDANCE...MAINLY DUE TO
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE ANTICIPATED. IF THIS COVERAGE BEGINS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. THE MOIST TREND WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

/85

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE AND GENERALLY INDICATES FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE MORE
BULLISH SOLUTION AND SHOWS THE MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY PROGRESSING FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
WITH SSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS ALONG WITH SSW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD FAVOR MUCH OF THE RAINFALL SETTING UP OVER THE
EAST COAST/METRO AREAS BY THURSDAY.

/85

AVIATION...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WERE DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MOVING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TAF SITES...AND THEY MAY MOVE OVER THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST TODAY AND HAVE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY
LIMIT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...SO KEPT VCTS IN FOR THE TAF SITES. AT KAPF...SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW INCREASES. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY.

/84

MARINE...

AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  87  76 /  40  30  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  77  87  79 /  50  40  60  20
MIAMI            85  77  87  78 /  50  40  60  20
NAPLES           87  75  89  76 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 131230
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
830 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...

RATHER DISORGANIZED UPPER LOW, WITH A FEW DISTURBANCES TRAILING
TO THE EAST, WILL BE THE IMPETUS FOR STORMS TODAY. LARGE MASS OF
MID LEVEL DRY AIR PER WATER VAPOR LOOP, MAY STAY NORTH OF THE
REGION TODAY, UNLIKE YESTERDAY. PERHAPS SOME OF THIS DRY AIR WILL
WRAP INTO THE CIRCULATION OF THE UPPER LOW, BUT THAT MAY NOT MEAN
MUCH SINCE THE LOW IS ALREADY OFF THE SW FL COAST. LAMP GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST COAST,
PERHAPS KEEPING MOST CONVECTION INLAND AND WEST COAST. THIS IS UP
AGAINST THE HRRR WHICH IS AGGRESSIVE PAINTING STORMS ALONG THE
BEACHES AND MOST TERMINALS BY MID AFTERNOON. THE TAFS CAN BE FINE
TUNED ONCE RAOB DATA ARRIVES, BUT WILL INSERT VCTS FOR NOW, AS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION MENTIONED VCTS FOR ALL TAFS, BUT TAFS ONLY
CONTAINED VCSH. PERHAPS SOME OF THE SHOWERS OFFSHORE OF PBI ARRIVE
LATER THIS MORNING. PERSISTENCE OF CLOUD COVER ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL ALSO GO A LONG WAY IN DETERMINING STORM EVOLUTION
TODAY. CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014/

SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MONDAY)

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY
..ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN APPEARS
TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND GENERALLY
INDICATES THIS MORNING ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE BEFORE SHIFTING
INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE WITH THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING UP THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAINFALL (AREAS HAVE
RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 7" JUST INLAND OF
BOCA RATON OVER THE PAST 24-36 HRS). MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OR TOWARD
MIAMI THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MAINLY
SATURATED PROFILES ABOVE A SLIGHTLY DRIER LAYER FROM THE SURFACE
TO 700MB. AS A RESULT...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO GUIDANCE...MAINLY DUE TO
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE ANTICIPATED. IF THIS COVERAGE BEGINS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. THE MOIST TREND WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

/85

LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE AND GENERALLY INDICATES FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE MORE
BULLISH SOLUTION AND SHOWS THE MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY PROGRESSING FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
WITH SSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS ALONG WITH SSW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD FAVOR MUCH OF THE RAINFALL SETTING UP OVER THE
EAST COAST/METRO AREAS BY THURSDAY.

/85

AVIATION...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WERE DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MOVING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TAF SITES...AND THEY MAY MOVE OVER THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST TODAY AND HAVE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY
LIMIT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...SO KEPT VCTS IN FOR THE TAF SITES. AT KAPF...SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW INCREASES. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY.

/84

MARINE...

AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  87  76 /  40  30  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  77  87  79 /  50  40  60  20
MIAMI            85  77  87  78 /  50  40  60  20
NAPLES           87  75  89  76 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 130831
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
431 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MONDAY)

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY
...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN APPEARS
TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND GENERALLY
INDICATES THIS MORNING ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE BEFORE SHIFTING
INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE WITH THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING UP THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAINFALL (AREAS HAVE
RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 7" JUST INLAND OF
BOCA RATON OVER THE PAST 24-36 HRS). MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OR TOWARD
MIAMI THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MAINLY
SATURATED PROFILES ABOVE A SLIGHTLY DRIER LAYER FROM THE SURFACE
TO 700MB. AS A RESULT...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO GUIDANCE...MAINLY DUE TO
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE ANTICIPATED. IF THIS COVERAGE BEGINS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. THE MOIST TREND WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

/85

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE AND GENERALLY INDICATES FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE MORE
BULLISH SOLUTION AND SHOWS THE MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY PROGRESSING FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
WITH SSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS ALONG WITH SSW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD FAVOR MUCH OF THE RAINFALL SETTING UP OVER THE
EAST COAST/METRO AREAS BY THURSDAY.

/85

&&

.AVIATION...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WERE DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MOVING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TAF SITES...AND THEY MAY MOVE OVER THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST TODAY AND HAVE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY
LIMIT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...SO KEPT VCTS IN FOR THE TAF SITES. AT KAPF...SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW INCREASES. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY.

/84

&&

.MARINE...

AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  87  76 /  40  30  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  77  87  79 /  50  40  60  20
MIAMI            85  77  87  78 /  50  40  60  20
NAPLES           87  75  89  76 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...85/AG
AVIATION....84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 130831
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
431 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY-MONDAY)

RECENTLY ANIMATED WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED AN UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES. PLENTY OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EAST OF THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TODAY
...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE LATEST HRRR MODEL RUN APPEARS
TO HAVE INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND GENERALLY
INDICATES THIS MORNING ACTIVITY CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN
AREAS INCLUDING PALM BEACH, BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE BEFORE SHIFTING
INLAND AND TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD. THIS SOLUTION MAKES SENSE WITH THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING WESTWARD AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST LOW-
LEVEL FLOW CONTINUING. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING UP THROUGH THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
AREAS THAT ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM EARLIER RAINFALL (AREAS HAVE
RECEIVED 2-4 INCHES WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 7" JUST INLAND OF
BOCA RATON OVER THE PAST 24-36 HRS). MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE
ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS OR TOWARD
MIAMI THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS WITH MAINLY
SATURATED PROFILES ABOVE A SLIGHTLY DRIER LAYER FROM THE SURFACE
TO 700MB. AS A RESULT...MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
UNDERCUT BY A FEW DEGREES COMPARED TO GUIDANCE...MAINLY DUE TO
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVERAGE ANTICIPATED. IF THIS COVERAGE BEGINS TO
BREAK THROUGH THE DAY...TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY. THE MOIST TREND WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE UPCOMING WEEK.

/85

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY-FRIDAY)...

THE LATEST EXTENDED GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE
LARGE SCALE AND GENERALLY INDICATES FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS PROJECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AND STALL NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE MORE
BULLISH SOLUTION AND SHOWS THE MOISTURE AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY PROGRESSING FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN
WITH SSW LOW-LEVEL FLOW SETTING UP OVER THE AREA BY THURSDAY. THE
COMBINATION OF THE FRONT AND FALLING UPPER HEIGHTS ALONG WITH SSW
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WOULD FAVOR MUCH OF THE RAINFALL SETTING UP OVER THE
EAST COAST/METRO AREAS BY THURSDAY.

/85

&&

.AVIATION...

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WERE DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MOVING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TAF SITES...AND THEY MAY MOVE OVER THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE WEST TODAY AND HAVE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE REGION
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION MAY
LIMIT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DURING
THE DAY. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE...SO KEPT VCTS IN FOR THE TAF SITES. AT KAPF...SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER LOW INCREASES. LIGHT
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS...AND THEN BECOME SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE
DAY.

/84

&&

.MARINE...

AN UPPER LOW WILL KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
MARINE AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AND AROUND HEAVIER SHOWERS AND STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS CONTINUING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  87  76 /  40  30  50  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  77  87  79 /  50  40  60  20
MIAMI            85  77  87  78 /  50  40  60  20
NAPLES           87  75  89  76 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...85/AG
AVIATION....84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 130605
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WERE DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MOVING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TAF SITES...AND THEY MAY MOVE OVER THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TODAY AND HAVE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MAY LIMIT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE...SO KEPT VCTS IN FOR THE TAF
SITES. AT KAPF...SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW INCREASES. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND THEN BECOME
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS THIS EVENING.
COULD HAVE LOWERED THEM EVEN MORE THAN I DID, BUT THESE TROPICAL
TYPE SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS CAN BEGIN TO DEVELOP CONVECTION
AT ANY TIME GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE WITH
DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS. SO EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH GOING ON AT THE
CURRENT TIME, WAS A LITTLE HESITANT IN MAKING TOO DRASTIC OF A CUT
IN THE POPS. THE HRRR KEEPS THE ACTION QUIET SO LATER UPDATES MAY
BE NEEDED TO LOWER CHANCES MORE IF TRENDS DICTATE.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF NAPLES THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT WILL BE THE
MAJOR INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
APPEARS TSRA THREAT OVERNIGHT IS MINIMAL...SO ELECTED TO HAVE VCSH
IN FORECAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY 15Z...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED...HANDLED NOW BY VCTS BUT TEMPO GROUPS MAY
BE NEEDED ONCE TIMING/COVERAGE BECOME MORE CERTAIN. ESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY
SAT AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
TRACK WESTWARD TONIGHT...IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BRINGING
IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT WESTWARD WITH 500 HPA VORTICITY FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS THE INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ELEVATED POP`S INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

FOR SATURDAY...WILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BE LESS OF A FACTOR AS
IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAY
TIME HEATING LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN DECREASING INTO SUNDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SATURDAY THEN DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  87  76 /  60  40  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  77  88  79 /  60  50  50  30
MIAMI            88  77  88  78 /  60  40  40  20
NAPLES           88  74  89  76 /  70  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 130605
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
WERE DEVELOPING ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
VORTICITY MOVING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THESE
SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOVING QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TAF SITES...AND THEY MAY MOVE OVER THE TAF
SITES THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST GULF AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TODAY AND HAVE LESS OF AN INFLUENCE OVER THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS COMBINED WITH THE OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION MAY LIMIT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR THE EAST COAST
METRO AREAS DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE IN THE
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE...SO KEPT VCTS IN FOR THE TAF
SITES. AT KAPF...SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE LIKELY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...AS THE INFLUENCE OF THE
UPPER LOW INCREASES. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...AND THEN BECOME
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 944 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

UPDATE...
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS THIS EVENING.
COULD HAVE LOWERED THEM EVEN MORE THAN I DID, BUT THESE TROPICAL
TYPE SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS CAN BEGIN TO DEVELOP CONVECTION
AT ANY TIME GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE WITH
DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS. SO EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH GOING ON AT THE
CURRENT TIME, WAS A LITTLE HESITANT IN MAKING TOO DRASTIC OF A CUT
IN THE POPS. THE HRRR KEEPS THE ACTION QUIET SO LATER UPDATES MAY
BE NEEDED TO LOWER CHANCES MORE IF TRENDS DICTATE.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF NAPLES THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT WILL BE THE
MAJOR INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
APPEARS TSRA THREAT OVERNIGHT IS MINIMAL...SO ELECTED TO HAVE VCSH
IN FORECAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY 15Z...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED...HANDLED NOW BY VCTS BUT TEMPO GROUPS MAY
BE NEEDED ONCE TIMING/COVERAGE BECOME MORE CERTAIN. ESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY
SAT AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
TRACK WESTWARD TONIGHT...IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BRINGING
IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT WESTWARD WITH 500 HPA VORTICITY FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS THE INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ELEVATED POP`S INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

FOR SATURDAY...WILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BE LESS OF A FACTOR AS
IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAY
TIME HEATING LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN DECREASING INTO SUNDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SATURDAY THEN DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  87  76 /  60  40  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  77  88  79 /  60  50  50  30
MIAMI            88  77  88  78 /  60  40  40  20
NAPLES           88  74  89  76 /  70  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...85/AG
LONG TERM....85/AG
AVIATION...84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 130144
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
944 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS THIS EVENING.
COULD HAVE LOWERED THEM EVEN MORE THAN I DID, BUT THESE TROPICAL
TYPE SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS CAN BEGIN TO DEVELOP CONVECTION
AT ANY TIME GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE WITH
DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS. SO EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH GOING ON AT THE
CURRENT TIME, WAS A LITTLE HESITANT IN MAKING TOO DRASTIC OF A CUT
IN THE POPS. THE HRRR KEEPS THE ACTION QUIET SO LATER UPDATES MAY
BE NEEDED TO LOWER CHANCES MORE IF TRENDS DICTATE.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF NAPLES THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT WILL BE THE
MAJOR INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
APPEARS TSRA THREAT OVERNIGHT IS MINIMAL...SO ELECTED TO HAVE VCSH
IN FORECAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY 15Z...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED...HANDLED NOW BY VCTS BUT TEMPO GROUPS MAY
BE NEEDED ONCE TIMING/COVERAGE BECOME MORE CERTAIN. ESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY
SAT AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
TRACK WESTWARD TONIGHT...IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BRINGING
IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT WESTWARD WITH 500 HPA VORTICITY FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS THE INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ELEVATED POP`S INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

FOR SATURDAY...WILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BE LESS OF A FACTOR AS
IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAY
TIME HEATING LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN DECREASING INTO SUNDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SATURDAY THEN DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 130144
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
944 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE POP GRIDS THIS EVENING.
COULD HAVE LOWERED THEM EVEN MORE THAN I DID, BUT THESE TROPICAL
TYPE SMALL LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS CAN BEGIN TO DEVELOP CONVECTION
AT ANY TIME GIVEN THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE WITH
DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS. SO EVEN THOUGH NOT MUCH GOING ON AT THE
CURRENT TIME, WAS A LITTLE HESITANT IN MAKING TOO DRASTIC OF A CUT
IN THE POPS. THE HRRR KEEPS THE ACTION QUIET SO LATER UPDATES MAY
BE NEEDED TO LOWER CHANCES MORE IF TRENDS DICTATE.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 739 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF NAPLES THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT WILL BE THE
MAJOR INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
APPEARS TSRA THREAT OVERNIGHT IS MINIMAL...SO ELECTED TO HAVE VCSH
IN FORECAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY 15Z...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED...HANDLED NOW BY VCTS BUT TEMPO GROUPS MAY
BE NEEDED ONCE TIMING/COVERAGE BECOME MORE CERTAIN. ESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY
SAT AFTN.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
TRACK WESTWARD TONIGHT...IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BRINGING
IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT WESTWARD WITH 500 HPA VORTICITY FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS THE INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ELEVATED POP`S INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

FOR SATURDAY...WILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BE LESS OF A FACTOR AS
IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAY
TIME HEATING LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN DECREASING INTO SUNDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SATURDAY THEN DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 122339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
739 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF NAPLES THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT WILL BE THE
MAJOR INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
APPEARS TSRA THREAT OVERNIGHT IS MINIMAL...SO ELECTED TO HAVE VCSH
IN FORECAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY 15Z...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED...HANDLED NOW BY VCTS BUT TEMPO GROUPS MAY
BE NEEDED ONCE TIMING/COVERAGE BECOME MORE CERTAIN. ESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY
SAT AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
TRACK WESTWARD TONIGHT...IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BRINGING
IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT WESTWARD WITH 500 HPA VORTICITY FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS THE INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ELEVATED POP`S INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

FOR SATURDAY...WILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BE LESS OF A FACTOR AS
IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAY
TIME HEATING LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN DECREASING INTO SUNDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SATURDAY THEN DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  76  87 /  50  60  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  77  88 /  50  60  50  50
MIAMI            76  88  77  88 /  50  60  40  40
NAPLES           75  88  74  89 /  60  70  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 122339
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
739 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NORTH OF NAPLES THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE DRIFTING WEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...BUT WILL BE THE
MAJOR INFLUENCE ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
APPEARS TSRA THREAT OVERNIGHT IS MINIMAL...SO ELECTED TO HAVE VCSH
IN FORECAST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. BY 15Z...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED...HANDLED NOW BY VCTS BUT TEMPO GROUPS MAY
BE NEEDED ONCE TIMING/COVERAGE BECOME MORE CERTAIN. ESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 5 KTS OR LESS TONIGHT...THEN INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS BY
SAT AFTN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...

RECENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

ELEVATED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO
TRACK WESTWARD TONIGHT...IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BRINGING
IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
FOR TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO
DRIFT WESTWARD WITH 500 HPA VORTICITY FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS THE INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ELEVATED POP`S INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

FOR SATURDAY...WILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BE LESS OF A FACTOR AS
IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAY
TIME HEATING LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH SATURDAY
THEN DECREASING INTO SUNDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET
POSSIBLE TODAY INTO SATURDAY THEN DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  76  87 /  50  60  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  77  88 /  50  60  50  50
MIAMI            76  88  77  88 /  50  60  40  40
NAPLES           75  88  74  89 /  60  70  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 121944
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT ENTERED PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLIER
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND REGIONAL WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND CONTINUING TO TRACK WESTWARD. RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...ELEVATED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK
WESTWARD TONIGHT...IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BRINGING IN
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
WESTWARD WITH 500 HPA VORTICITY FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS THE INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ELEVATED POP`S INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

FOR SATURDAY...WILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BE LESS OF A FACTOR AS
IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAY
TIME HEATING LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.MARINE...

WIND DIRECTION TODAY WILL VARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DECREASING
INTO SUNDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE TODAY
INTO SATURDAY THEN DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  76  87 /  50  60  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  77  88 /  60  60  50  50
MIAMI            76  88  77  88 /  60  60  40  40
NAPLES           75  88  74  89 /  60  70  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 121944
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT ENTERED PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLIER
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND REGIONAL WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A CIRCULATION CURRENTLY
WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND CONTINUING TO TRACK WESTWARD. RECENT
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND IS
FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WITH THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...ELEVATED CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK
WESTWARD TONIGHT...IT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE GULF WATERS WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FORECAST TO CONTINUE BRINGING IN
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FOR
TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT
WESTWARD WITH 500 HPA VORTICITY FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THUS THE INGREDIENTS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH
ELEVATED POP`S INDICATED IN THE FORECAST.

FOR SATURDAY...WILE THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BE LESS OF A FACTOR AS
IT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD...THE SURFACE LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE EASTERN GULF WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS CONTINUING TO ADVECT ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BY SUNDAY
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION WITH DAY
TIME HEATING LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME RELATIVELY
DRIER AIR ENTERING THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.



&&

.MARINE...

WIND DIRECTION TODAY WILL VARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED CIRCULATION
CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY THEN DECREASING
INTO SUNDAY TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET POSSIBLE TODAY
INTO SATURDAY THEN DECREASING TO 2 FEET OR LESS BY SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  76  87 /  50  60  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  77  88 /  60  60  50  50
MIAMI            76  88  77  88 /  60  60  40  40
NAPLES           75  88  74  89 /  60  70  40  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 121747 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA, IS RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR KAPF AT THIS HOUR. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
TRAINING STORMS COULD CREATE MORE PERSISTENT IFR CONDS THERE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CROSSING THE BEACHES, ESPECIALLY WITH
CLOUDS BREAKING. HOWEVER, INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW
STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES EVENTUALLY AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT, VCSH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING OVERNIGHT FROM
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

AVIATION...

TROPICAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE MOVING SSW THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOSTLY WEST OF THE TERMINALS
AT THIS HOUR, WITH LINES OF SHOWERS WITH SOME STORMS MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SW, WHICH IS NOW JUST SW OF KPBI,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ADDING TO THE
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGH, PINPOINTING THUNDER IS MORE
TRICKY, SO MAY NEED TO WAIT A WHILE BEFORE INSERTING TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, CONVERGENCE AND
NEARBY H5 DISTURBANCE, HRRR IS RATHER DRY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
REDUCES CONFIDENCE. 1K FT CIG THIS EARLY MORNING AT KPBI MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR, BEFORE IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR
THE COAST JUST OFF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. AN MCV FEATURE DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY VERY EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -75C. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH 2-3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MORE
RECENTLY...THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM. THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
WILL PUSH THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND THE HEAVY RAIN MAY MOVES TOWARDS THE NAPLES REGION
LATER THIS MORNING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

FOR THE EAST COAST...POPS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...STORMS COULD REDEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. SO KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH
RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/MCV WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE GFS...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. KEPT WITH THE WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY...DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
THUS...THE REGION WOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME...WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
AND THEN PUSHING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF IS MORE THAN 2 DEGREES TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. FOR NOW KEPT SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD FAVOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST METRO AREAS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE PALM BEACH COAST
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES WESTWARD. WINDS AT
NAPLES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW RELATIVE TO THE
APF TERMINAL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD
OFF OF THE NAPLES COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA. /85

MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE PALM BEACH COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND THEN INTO THE
REGIONAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME WATERSPOUTS
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH CIRCULATION
AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WHICH WILL BE MOVING SW THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
COULD IMPACT THE GULF FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  88  76  89 /  40  50  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  90 /  40  60  40  50
MIAMI            77  89  77  90 /  40  60  40  50
NAPLES           73  89  74  91 /  50  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 121747
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KAPF AT
THIS HOUR. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT TRAINING STORMS
COULD CREATE MORE PERSISTENT IFR CONDS THERE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME CROSSING THE BEACHES, ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS
BREAKING. HOWEVER, INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW STORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES EVENTUALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT, VCSH MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING OVERNIGHT FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

AVIATION...

TROPICAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE MOVING SSW THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOSTLY WEST OF THE TERMINALS
AT THIS HOUR, WITH LINES OF SHOWERS WITH SOME STORMS MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SW, WHICH IS NOW JUST SW OF KPBI,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ADDING TO THE
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGH, PINPOINTING THUNDER IS MORE
TRICKY, SO MAY NEED TO WAIT A WHILE BEFORE INSERTING TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, CONVERGENCE AND
NEARBY H5 DISTURBANCE, HRRR IS RATHER DRY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
REDUCES CONFIDENCE. 1K FT CIG THIS EARLY MORNING AT KPBI MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR, BEFORE IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR
THE COAST JUST OFF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. AN MCV FEATURE DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY VERY EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -75C. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH 2-3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MORE
RECENTLY...THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM. THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
WILL PUSH THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND THE HEAVY RAIN MAY MOVES TOWARDS THE NAPLES REGION
LATER THIS MORNING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

FOR THE EAST COAST...POPS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...STORMS COULD REDEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. SO KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH
RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/MCV WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE GFS...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. KEPT WITH THE WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY...DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
THUS...THE REGION WOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME...WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
AND THEN PUSHING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF IS MORE THAN 2 DEGREES TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. FOR NOW KEPT SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD FAVOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST METRO AREAS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE PALM BEACH COAST
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES WESTWARD. WINDS AT
NAPLES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW RELATIVE TO THE
APF TERMINAL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD
OFF OF THE NAPLES COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA. /85

MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE PALM BEACH COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND THEN INTO THE
REGIONAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME WATERSPOUTS
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH CIRCULATION
AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WHICH WILL BE MOVING SW THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
COULD IMPACT THE GULF FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  88  76  89 /  40  50  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  90 /  40  60  40  50
MIAMI            77  89  77  90 /  40  60  40  50
NAPLES           73  89  74  91 /  50  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 121747
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KAPF AT
THIS HOUR. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT TRAINING STORMS
COULD CREATE MORE PERSISTENT IFR CONDS THERE IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME CROSSING THE BEACHES, ESPECIALLY WITH CLOUDS
BREAKING. HOWEVER, INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW STORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES EVENTUALLY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES.
WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT, VCSH MAY BE NEEDED FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING OVERNIGHT FROM THE ATLANTIC
WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

AVIATION...

TROPICAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE MOVING SSW THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOSTLY WEST OF THE TERMINALS
AT THIS HOUR, WITH LINES OF SHOWERS WITH SOME STORMS MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SW, WHICH IS NOW JUST SW OF KPBI,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ADDING TO THE
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGH, PINPOINTING THUNDER IS MORE
TRICKY, SO MAY NEED TO WAIT A WHILE BEFORE INSERTING TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, CONVERGENCE AND
NEARBY H5 DISTURBANCE, HRRR IS RATHER DRY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
REDUCES CONFIDENCE. 1K FT CIG THIS EARLY MORNING AT KPBI MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR, BEFORE IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR
THE COAST JUST OFF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. AN MCV FEATURE DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY VERY EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -75C. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH 2-3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MORE
RECENTLY...THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM. THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
WILL PUSH THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND THE HEAVY RAIN MAY MOVES TOWARDS THE NAPLES REGION
LATER THIS MORNING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

FOR THE EAST COAST...POPS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...STORMS COULD REDEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. SO KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH
RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/MCV WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE GFS...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. KEPT WITH THE WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY...DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
THUS...THE REGION WOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME...WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
AND THEN PUSHING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF IS MORE THAN 2 DEGREES TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. FOR NOW KEPT SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD FAVOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST METRO AREAS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE PALM BEACH COAST
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES WESTWARD. WINDS AT
NAPLES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW RELATIVE TO THE
APF TERMINAL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD
OFF OF THE NAPLES COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA. /85

MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE PALM BEACH COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND THEN INTO THE
REGIONAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME WATERSPOUTS
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH CIRCULATION
AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WHICH WILL BE MOVING SW THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
COULD IMPACT THE GULF FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  88  76  89 /  40  50  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  90 /  40  60  40  50
MIAMI            77  89  77  90 /  40  60  40  50
NAPLES           73  89  74  91 /  50  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 121747 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
147 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA, IS RESPONSIBLE FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR KAPF AT THIS HOUR. SOME BRIEF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE, BUT
TRAINING STORMS COULD CREATE MORE PERSISTENT IFR CONDS THERE IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME CROSSING THE BEACHES, ESPECIALLY WITH
CLOUDS BREAKING. HOWEVER, INSOLATION THIS AFTERNOON MAY ALLOW
STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TAF SITES EVENTUALLY AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES. WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TONIGHT, VCSH MAY BE
NEEDED FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SHOWERS ARRIVING OVERNIGHT FROM
THE ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 833 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

AVIATION...

TROPICAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE MOVING SSW THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOSTLY WEST OF THE TERMINALS
AT THIS HOUR, WITH LINES OF SHOWERS WITH SOME STORMS MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SW, WHICH IS NOW JUST SW OF KPBI,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ADDING TO THE
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGH, PINPOINTING THUNDER IS MORE
TRICKY, SO MAY NEED TO WAIT A WHILE BEFORE INSERTING TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, CONVERGENCE AND
NEARBY H5 DISTURBANCE, HRRR IS RATHER DRY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
REDUCES CONFIDENCE. 1K FT CIG THIS EARLY MORNING AT KPBI MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR, BEFORE IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR
THE COAST JUST OFF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. AN MCV FEATURE DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY VERY EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -75C. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH 2-3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MORE
RECENTLY...THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM. THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
WILL PUSH THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND THE HEAVY RAIN MAY MOVES TOWARDS THE NAPLES REGION
LATER THIS MORNING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

FOR THE EAST COAST...POPS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...STORMS COULD REDEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. SO KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH
RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/MCV WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE GFS...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. KEPT WITH THE WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY...DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
THUS...THE REGION WOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME...WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
AND THEN PUSHING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF IS MORE THAN 2 DEGREES TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. FOR NOW KEPT SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD FAVOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST METRO AREAS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE PALM BEACH COAST
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES WESTWARD. WINDS AT
NAPLES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW RELATIVE TO THE
APF TERMINAL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD
OFF OF THE NAPLES COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA. /85

MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE PALM BEACH COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND THEN INTO THE
REGIONAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME WATERSPOUTS
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH CIRCULATION
AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WHICH WILL BE MOVING SW THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
COULD IMPACT THE GULF FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  88  76  89 /  40  50  40  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  89  77  90 /  40  60  40  50
MIAMI            77  89  77  90 /  40  60  40  50
NAPLES           73  89  74  91 /  50  70  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 121233
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
833 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...

TROPICAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE MOVING SSW THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOSTLY WEST OF THE TERMINALS
AT THIS HOUR, WITH LINES OF SHOWERS WITH SOME STORMS MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SW, WHICH IS NOW JUST SW OF KPBI,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ADDING TO THE
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGH, PINPOINTING THUNDER IS MORE
TRICKY, SO MAY NEED TO WAIT A WHILE BEFORE INSERTING TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, CONVERGENCE AND
NEARBY H5 DISTURBANCE, HRRR IS RATHER DRY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
REDUCES CONFIDENCE. 1K FT CIG THIS EARLY MORNING AT KPBI MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR, BEFORE IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR
THE COAST JUST OFF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. AN MCV FEATURE DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY VERY EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -75C. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH 2-3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MORE
RECENTLY...THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM. THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
WILL PUSH THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND THE HEAVY RAIN MAY MOVES TOWARDS THE NAPLES REGION
LATER THIS MORNING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

FOR THE EAST COAST...POPS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...STORMS COULD REDEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. SO KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH
RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/MCV WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE GFS...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. KEPT WITH THE WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY...DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
THUS...THE REGION WOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME...WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
AND THEN PUSHING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF IS MORE THAN 2 DEGREES TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. FOR NOW KEPT SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD FAVOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST METRO AREAS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE PALM BEACH COAST
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES WESTWARD. WINDS AT
NAPLES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW RELATIVE TO THE
APF TERMINAL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD
OFF OF THE NAPLES COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA. /85

MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE PALM BEACH COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND THEN INTO THE
REGIONAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
COULD IMPACT THE GULF FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  88  76 /  70  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  77  89  77 /  70  40  60  40
MIAMI            85  77  89  77 /  70  40  60  40
NAPLES           86  73  89  74 /  70  50  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 121233
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
833 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...

TROPICAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE MOVING SSW THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOSTLY WEST OF THE TERMINALS
AT THIS HOUR, WITH LINES OF SHOWERS WITH SOME STORMS MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SW, WHICH IS NOW JUST SW OF KPBI,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ADDING TO THE
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGH, PINPOINTING THUNDER IS MORE
TRICKY, SO MAY NEED TO WAIT A WHILE BEFORE INSERTING TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, CONVERGENCE AND
NEARBY H5 DISTURBANCE, HRRR IS RATHER DRY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
REDUCES CONFIDENCE. 1K FT CIG THIS EARLY MORNING AT KPBI MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR, BEFORE IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR
THE COAST JUST OFF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. AN MCV FEATURE DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY VERY EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -75C. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH 2-3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MORE
RECENTLY...THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM. THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
WILL PUSH THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND THE HEAVY RAIN MAY MOVES TOWARDS THE NAPLES REGION
LATER THIS MORNING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

FOR THE EAST COAST...POPS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...STORMS COULD REDEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. SO KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH
RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/MCV WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE GFS...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. KEPT WITH THE WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY...DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
THUS...THE REGION WOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME...WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
AND THEN PUSHING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF IS MORE THAN 2 DEGREES TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. FOR NOW KEPT SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD FAVOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST METRO AREAS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE PALM BEACH COAST
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES WESTWARD. WINDS AT
NAPLES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW RELATIVE TO THE
APF TERMINAL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD
OFF OF THE NAPLES COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA. /85

MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE PALM BEACH COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND THEN INTO THE
REGIONAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
COULD IMPACT THE GULF FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  88  76 /  70  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  77  89  77 /  70  40  60  40
MIAMI            85  77  89  77 /  70  40  60  40
NAPLES           86  73  89  74 /  70  50  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 121233 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
833 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...

TROPICAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE MOVING SSW THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOSTLY WEST OF THE TERMINALS
AT THIS HOUR, WITH LINES OF SHOWERS WITH SOME STORMS MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SW, WHICH IS NOW JUST SW OF KPBI,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ADDING TO THE
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGH, PINPOINTING THUNDER IS MORE
TRICKY, SO MAY NEED TO WAIT A WHILE BEFORE INSERTING TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, CONVERGENCE AND
NEARBY H5 DISTURBANCE, HRRR IS RATHER DRY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
REDUCES CONFIDENCE. 1K FT CIG THIS EARLY MORNING AT KPBI MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR, BEFORE IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR
THE COAST JUST OFF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. AN MCV FEATURE DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY VERY EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -75C. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH 2-3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MORE
RECENTLY...THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM. THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
WILL PUSH THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND THE HEAVY RAIN MAY MOVES TOWARDS THE NAPLES REGION
LATER THIS MORNING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

FOR THE EAST COAST...POPS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...STORMS COULD REDEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. SO KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH
RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/MCV WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE GFS...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. KEPT WITH THE WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY...DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
THUS...THE REGION WOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME...WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
AND THEN PUSHING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF IS MORE THAN 2 DEGREES TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. FOR NOW KEPT SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD FAVOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST METRO AREAS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE PALM BEACH COAST
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES WESTWARD. WINDS AT
NAPLES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW RELATIVE TO THE
APF TERMINAL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD
OFF OF THE NAPLES COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA. /85

MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE PALM BEACH COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND THEN INTO THE
REGIONAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME WATERSPOUTS
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH CIRCULATION
AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WHICH WILL BE MOVING SW THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
COULD IMPACT THE GULF FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  88  76 /  70  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  77  89  77 /  70  40  60  40
MIAMI            85  77  89  77 /  70  40  60  40
NAPLES           86  73  89  74 /  70  50  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 121233 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
833 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...

TROPICAL RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER ARE MOVING SSW THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS MOSTLY WEST OF THE TERMINALS
AT THIS HOUR, WITH LINES OF SHOWERS WITH SOME STORMS MOVING NORTH
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS DUE TO FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE. AS
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SW, WHICH IS NOW JUST SW OF KPBI,
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS ADDING TO THE
INSTABILITY. ALTHOUGH POPS ARE HIGH, PINPOINTING THUNDER IS MORE
TRICKY, SO MAY NEED TO WAIT A WHILE BEFORE INSERTING TEMPO GROUPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE ABUNDANT MOISTURE, CONVERGENCE AND
NEARBY H5 DISTURBANCE, HRRR IS RATHER DRY THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
REDUCES CONFIDENCE. 1K FT CIG THIS EARLY MORNING AT KPBI MAY
BRIEFLY FALL TO IFR, BEFORE IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

DISCUSSION...
VERY HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING ACROSS INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR
THE COAST JUST OFF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. AN MCV FEATURE DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY VERY EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -75C. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH 2-3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MORE
RECENTLY...THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM. THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
WILL PUSH THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND THE HEAVY RAIN MAY MOVES TOWARDS THE NAPLES REGION
LATER THIS MORNING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

FOR THE EAST COAST...POPS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...STORMS COULD REDEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. SO KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH
RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/MCV WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE GFS...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. KEPT WITH THE WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY...DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
THUS...THE REGION WOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME...WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
AND THEN PUSHING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF IS MORE THAN 2 DEGREES TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. FOR NOW KEPT SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD FAVOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST METRO AREAS.

AVIATION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE PALM BEACH COAST
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES WESTWARD. WINDS AT
NAPLES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW RELATIVE TO THE
APF TERMINAL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD
OFF OF THE NAPLES COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA. /85

MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE PALM BEACH COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND THEN INTO THE
REGIONAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME WATERSPOUTS
TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH CIRCULATION
AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE, WHICH WILL BE MOVING SW THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
COULD IMPACT THE GULF FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  88  76 /  70  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  77  89  77 /  70  40  60  40
MIAMI            85  77  89  77 /  70  40  60  40
NAPLES           86  73  89  74 /  70  50  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 120845
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
445 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VERY HEAVY RAIN FALLING ACROSS INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR
THE COAST JUST OFF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. AN MCV FEATURE DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY VERY EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -75C. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH 2-3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MORE
RECENTLY...THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM. THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
WILL PUSH THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND THE HEAVY RAIN MAY MOVES TOWARDS THE NAPLES REGION
LATER THIS MORNING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

FOR THE EAST COAST...POPS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...STORMS COULD REDEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. SO KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH
RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/MCV WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE GFS...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. KEPT WITH THE WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY...DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
THUS...THE REGION WOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME...WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
AND THEN PUSHING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF IS MORE THAN 2 DEGREES TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. FOR NOW KEPT SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD FAVOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST METRO AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE PALM BEACH COAST
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES WESTWARD. WINDS AT
NAPLES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW RELATIVE TO THE
APF TERMINAL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD
OFF OF THE NAPLES COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA. /85

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE PALM BEACH COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND THEN INTO THE
REGIONAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
COULD IMPACT THE GULF FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  88  76 /  70  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  77  89  77 /  70  40  60  40
MIAMI            85  77  89  77 /  70  40  60  40
NAPLES           86  73  89  74 /  70  50  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG




000
FXUS62 KMFL 120845
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
445 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
VERY HEAVY RAIN FALLING ACROSS INLAND PALM BEACH COUNTY EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAY HAVE REDEVELOPED NEAR
THE COAST JUST OFF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY. AN MCV FEATURE DEVELOPED
OVER EASTERN PALM BEACH COUNTY VERY EARLY THIS MORNING TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...WITH EXPANDING CLOUD TOPS
AS COLD AS -75C. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS THE
WEST SOUTHWEST...WITH 2-3 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. MORE
RECENTLY...THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN INTENSITY AND
CLOUD TOPS HAVE BEGUN TO WARM. THE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
WILL PUSH THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE...AND THE HEAVY RAIN MAY MOVES TOWARDS THE NAPLES REGION
LATER THIS MORNING IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

FOR THE EAST COAST...POPS MAY BE A LITTLE TOO HIGH DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND STORMS BEING PUSHED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. HOWEVER...STORMS COULD REDEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER
THE EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST
LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING. SO KEPT LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE
BOARD...BUT AMOUNTS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. FOR
TEMPERATURES...MOST LOCATIONS WILL REACH THE LOW/MID 80S...WITH
RAIN COOLED LOCATIONS REMAINING IN THE 70S.

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE/MCV WILL MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE DAY...AND EXIT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT.
THE MODELS STILL DIFFER ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW AND RAINFALL
CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WETTER THAN
THE GFS...KEEPING DEEPER MOISTURE AND MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. KEPT WITH THE WETTER SOLUTION FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF.
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE...AND
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE IN THE 50-70 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE GULF COAST.

SUNDAY...DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN IN THE MODELS ON SUNDAY. THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF.
THUS...THE REGION WOULD RETURN TO A MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME...WITH SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
AND THEN PUSHING TOWARDS THE GULF COAST IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF IS MORE THAN 2 DEGREES TO THE EAST. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE GULF...WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN REMAIN VERY HIGH ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION. FOR NOW KEPT SCATTERED POPS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND
LIKELY ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND GULF.

EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AN UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF IS DEEPER WITH THE TROUGH AND PUSHES A
COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE
ECMWF PUSHES THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY AND THEN
SOUTH OF THE REGION BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD FAVOR HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
EAST AND NORTHEAST METRO AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE PALM BEACH COAST
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES WESTWARD. WINDS AT
NAPLES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW RELATIVE TO THE
APF TERMINAL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD
OFF OF THE NAPLES COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA. /85

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE PALM BEACH COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...AND THEN INTO THE
REGIONAL GULF WATERS TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN HIGH OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM
CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT ONCE IT MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
COULD IMPACT THE GULF FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  87  76  88  76 /  70  40  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  77  89  77 /  70  40  60  40
MIAMI            85  77  89  77 /  70  40  60  40
NAPLES           86  73  89  74 /  70  50  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...85/AG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 120628
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
228 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE PALM BEACH COAST
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES WESTWARD. WINDS AT
NAPLES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW RELATIVE TO THE
APF TERMINAL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD
OFF OF THE NAPLES COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATES. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM NHC.
EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL MOVING ACROSS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN HIGH INHIBITING
ITS DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH IT HOWEVER REMAINS
VERY MOIST WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, EVEN THOUGH THERE
APPEARS TO BE WANING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME SHOWER AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014/

AVIATION...
PATCHES OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. TEMPO GROUPS ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THROUGH 3Z...AFTER WHICH MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
ACTIVITY WILL DIURNALLY WAVE. STILL...VCSH MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY ON FRIDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY FOR
TIMING KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FROM BEING INTRODUCED. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD-
COVER. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE EASTERLY FRIDAY AS CENTER OF
LOW MOVES ONSHORE...EXCEPT FOR KAPF WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A
MUCH LARGER AND BROAD AREA OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIRES
MODELS, SUCH AS THE HRRR, SEEM TO ACCELERATE THE PRECIPITATION
CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT, WHILE SHOWING THE PRECIP
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS BASICALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY
01Z OR 02Z.

AN ISSUE IS THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN THE MID LEVELS. WINDS SHIFT
ALMOST 180 DEGREES FROM JUST BELOW 700 MB TO JUST ABOVE IT. ALSO,
LOOKING A THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE PRECIPITATION, IT IS
CLEARLY NOT LINED UP WITH THE SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
THINKING IS THAT IT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY STRENGTHENING MUCH BEFORE
IT MAKES LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT ONCE IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL, THE LOW ALL
BUT STALLS OVER THE GULF COAST FOR THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ACT AS A
TRIGGER FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW,
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. BY TOMORROW EVENING,
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF AND AWAY FROM THE CWA.
THIS WILL ALLOW POPS TO BECOME MORE NORMAL AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS A TROUGH AXIS
LINGERING OVER THE REGION EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF...WITH A RETURN OF THE DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SO RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY...AND THEN COME DOWN A LITTLE ON
SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW RAINY SEASON PATTERN.

MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS DISTURBANCE...AND THIS COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  77  86  76 /  60  30  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  88  79 /  60  30  50  20
MIAMI            87  77  88  78 /  60  30  60  20
NAPLES           89  75  88  75 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 120628
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
228 AM EDT FRI SEP 12 2014

.AVIATION...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED AROUND THE PALM BEACH COAST
WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD TOWARD THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTH FLORIDA REGION THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST SOMETIME THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY AS THE LOW CONTINUES WESTWARD. WINDS AT
NAPLES WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW RELATIVE TO THE
APF TERMINAL REMAINS HIGH AT THIS TIME. AS THE LOW SHIFTS WESTWARD
OFF OF THE NAPLES COAST...LIGHT TO MODERATE SE WINDS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA. /85

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 926 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014/

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED FOR THE EVENING UPDATES. THE WEAK LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS CONTINUES
TO MOVE SLOWLY TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM NHC.
EVEN THOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL MOVING ACROSS WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN HIGH INHIBITING
ITS DEVELOPMENT. THE ATMOSPHERE ASSOCIATED WITH IT HOWEVER REMAINS
VERY MOIST WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THEREFORE, EVEN THOUGH THERE
APPEARS TO BE WANING CONVECTION AT THIS TIME SHOWER AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME THROUGH THE NIGHT
ESPECIALLY OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 817 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014/

AVIATION...
PATCHES OF MODERATE RAIN CONTINUING TO PIVOT SOUTHWARD ACROSS
EASTERN TERMINALS AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES. TEMPO GROUPS ACCOUNT
FOR THIS THROUGH 3Z...AFTER WHICH MESOSCALE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
ACTIVITY WILL DIURNALLY WAVE. STILL...VCSH MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS LIKELY ON FRIDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY FOR
TIMING KEPT TEMPO GROUPS FROM BEING INTRODUCED. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT COVERAGE IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD-
COVER. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT SHOULD BE EASTERLY FRIDAY AS CENTER OF
LOW MOVES ONSHORE...EXCEPT FOR KAPF WHERE NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 PM EDT THU SEP 11 2014/

SHORT TERM...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. SYNOPTIC MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A
MUCH LARGER AND BROAD AREA OF HEAVY RAIN THROUGH FRIDAY. THE HIRES
MODELS, SUCH AS THE HRRR, SEEM TO ACCELERATE THE PRECIPITATION
CENTER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT, WHILE SHOWING THE PRECIP
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
SHOWERS BASICALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH FLORIDA BY
01Z OR 02Z.

AN ISSUE IS THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR IN THE MID LEVELS. WINDS SHIFT
ALMOST 180 DEGREES FROM JUST BELOW 700 MB TO JUST ABOVE IT. ALSO,
LOOKING A THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OF THE PRECIPITATION, IT IS
CLEARLY NOT LINED UP WITH THE SURFACE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.
THINKING IS THAT IT WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY STRENGTHENING MUCH BEFORE
IT MAKES LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT.

MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT ONCE IT DOES MAKE LANDFALL, THE LOW ALL
BUT STALLS OVER THE GULF COAST FOR THE DAY. THIS SHOULD ACT AS A
TRIGGER FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TOMORROW,
ESPECIALLY IN THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST. BY TOMORROW EVENING,
THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF AND AWAY FROM THE CWA.
THIS WILL ALLOW POPS TO BECOME MORE NORMAL AND DIURNALLY DRIVEN
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

LONG TERM...
SUNDAY...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF KEEPS A TROUGH AXIS
LINGERING OVER THE REGION EXTENDING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS MOVES THE SYSTEM QUICKLY WESTWARD
ACROSS THE GULF...WITH A RETURN OF THE DEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
OBSERVED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ON SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
WESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. SO RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN THE
LIKELY CATEGORY ON SATURDAY...AND THEN COME DOWN A LITTLE ON
SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A MORE TYPICAL EASTERLY FLOW RAINY SEASON PATTERN.

MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS IS
FORECAST TO PUSH SLOWLY WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
TONIGHT AND THEN INTO THE GULF WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NHC IS
MONITORING THIS DISTURBANCE...AND THIS COULD IMPACT THE FORECAST
FOR FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS ARE FORECAST
TONIGHT...WITH GENERALLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  77  86  76 /  60  30  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  87  78  88  79 /  60  30  50  20
MIAMI            87  77  88  78 /  60  30  60  20
NAPLES           89  75  88  75 /  70  30  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....30/KOB
AVIATION...23/SK




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