000
FXUS62 KMFL 190040 AAB
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
840 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT BEEN OCCURRING OVER THE INTERIOR
AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH REST OF
THE EVENING HOURS AS THE HEATING OF THE DAY IS LOST. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BEFORE REMOVING THE POPS OVER
THESE AREAS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
FAR ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. THESE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SLOWLY WEST
TOWARD THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT. SO WILL
CONTINUE THE SLIGHT POPS FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREA AND THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR TONIGHT.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 810 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
AVIATION...
FEW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND NAPLES BY 2Z...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY PCPN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR WED.
POPS WED AFTN ARE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT...HIGHEST AT KAPF AND
HAVENT BEEN PLACED IN 0Z TAFS. ESE WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 5 KTS
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINATE
SYNOPTIC FEATURE INFLUENCING THE LOCAL WEATHER. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH NIGHT. INTERIOR
HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 102-106 DEGREE RANGE EACH
DAY. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AT FLL...WARMEST MINIMUM RECORDS COULD
BE BROKEN EACH NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT MARINE AREAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MODEL PWS DECREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.9"
WEDNESDAY TO 1.3-1.5" BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...THE NAVY AND GFS AEROSOL MODELS DEPICT HIGHER DUST
CONCENTRATIONS SPREADING INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO HAZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO NEAR
THE 2" MARK BY SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 88 78 88 / 10 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 89 80 89 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 80 90 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 76 91 74 91 / 10 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 190010
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
810 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
FEW SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH AROUND NAPLES BY 2Z...OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND GENERALLY PCPN-FREE CONDITIONS FOR WED.
POPS WED AFTN ARE BETWEEN 20-30 PERCENT...HIGHEST AT KAPF AND
HAVENT BEEN PLACED IN 0Z TAFS. ESE WINDS TONIGHT AROUND 5 KTS
INCREASE TO 10-15 KTS ON WEDNESDAY. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINATE
SYNOPTIC FEATURE INFLUENCING THE LOCAL WEATHER. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH NIGHT. INTERIOR
HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 102-106 DEGREE RANGE EACH
DAY. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AT FLL...WARMEST MINIMUM RECORDS COULD
BE BROKEN EACH NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT MARINE AREAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MODEL PWS DECREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.9"
WEDNESDAY TO 1.3-1.5" BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...THE NAVY AND GFS AEROSOL MODELS DEPICT HIGHER DUST
CONCENTRATIONS SPREADING INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO HAZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO NEAR
THE 2" MARK BY SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 88 78 88 / 20 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 89 80 89 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 78 90 78 89 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 75 91 74 91 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 181814
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT)...
WARM AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
SHORT-TERM PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE REMAINS THE DOMINATE
SYNOPTIC FEATURE INFLUENCING THE LOCAL WEATHER. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS WITH LOWS
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EACH NIGHT. INTERIOR
HEAT INDICES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE 102-106 DEGREE RANGE EACH
DAY. SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING AT FLL...WARMEST MINIMUM RECORDS COULD
BE BROKEN EACH NIGHT ALONG THE EAST COAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE ADJACENT MARINE AREAS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND NORTHERN
SECTIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING PERIODS WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE. MODEL PWS DECREASE FROM 1.4 TO 1.9"
WEDNESDAY TO 1.3-1.5" BY FRIDAY ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONALLY...THE NAVY AND GFS AEROSOL MODELS DEPICT HIGHER DUST
CONCENTRATIONS SPREADING INTO THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO HAZY CONDITIONS EACH DAY.
.LONG TERM (FRIDAY-TUESDAY)...
MODELS REMAIN PERSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING AND MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO NEAR
THE 2" MARK BY SUNDAY...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE TO HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES.
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS PUSHED TO THE WEST
OF MOST OF THE EAST COAST TAF SITES ALREADY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SOUNDING WAS VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY...SO DROPPED VCSH
FROM MOST OF THE TAF SITES. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP ARE
FORECAST TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-12 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT...INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS BY THE AFTERNOON. FOR
KAPF...A THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE
INLAND...AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 88 78 88 / 20 30 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 79 89 80 89 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 78 90 78 89 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 75 91 74 91 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 181126
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
726 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10-12
KT EAST COAST AND SW AROUND 10 KT AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE
VCSH DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TSRA IS EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE OVER
THE INTERIOR. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 427 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013/
DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS AND HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS SIMILAR WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH WITH MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.
DRIER AIR JUST AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES COULD ENTER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND MIGHT
CONTAIN A LOW LEVEL SAHARAN AIR LAYER. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRIER AIR LAYER IN THE 850-700 HPA LAYER BY THURSDAY. SO HAZY
SKIES MAYBE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
MARINE...
INTO THURSDAY THE REGIONAL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 15
KNOTS WITH GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.
EXTENDED FORECAST INDICATES WINDS COULD REACH THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE OR EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
AN INCREASE IN THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS BUT FORECAST TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
FIRE WEATHER...
THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED MAINLY INTERIOR AND WESTERN REGIONS. OTHERWISE
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 78 88 77 / 20 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 89 81 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 90 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 91 75 90 74 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 180827
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
427 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
IN GENERAL HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH OF
PUERTO RICO THAT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY STATIONARY THE
NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ADJACENT WATERS AND HIGH SURFACE
PRESSURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. SO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY IS SIMILAR WITH DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE
PENINSULA...ALTHOUGH WITH MAINLY MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.
DRIER AIR JUST AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES COULD ENTER THE REGION ON THURSDAY AND MIGHT
CONTAIN A LOW LEVEL SAHARAN AIR LAYER. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A
DRIER AIR LAYER IN THE 850-700 HPA LAYER BY THURSDAY. SO HAZY
SKIES MAYBE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ALTHOUGH IN THE INTERIOR PENINSULA
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
INTO THURSDAY THE REGIONAL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 15
KNOTS WITH GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS FORECAST TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.
EXTENDED FORECAST INDICATES WINDS COULD REACH THE 10 TO 15 KNOT
RANGE OR EVEN A LITTLE HIGHER ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
AN INCREASE IN THE GULF AND ATLANTIC SEAS BUT FORECAST TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THROUGH FRIDAY MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY EXPECTED MAINLY INTERIOR AND WESTERN REGIONS. OTHERWISE
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 78 88 77 / 20 20 30 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 79 89 81 / 20 20 20 20
MIAMI 90 79 89 79 / 20 20 20 20
NAPLES 91 75 90 74 / 30 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...60/BD
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KMFL 180611
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
211 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL. LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME SE 10-12 KT
EAST COAST AND SW AROUND 10 KT AT KAPF IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE VCSH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS TSRA IS EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE
INTERIOR. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 925 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER..THERE WAS STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW STORMS OVER GLADES COUNTY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OVER METRO COLLIER COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING
HOURS.
THE LATEST PWAT VALUE FROM THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING WAS AROUND 1.2
INCHES. THIS IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT OF
1.75 INCHES. SO THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. THERE COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT..BUT THE
COVERAGE WILL BE AT BEST 10 PERCENT.
SO WILL KEEP THE THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND 20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
FOR A 30 PERCENT EVENING POPS FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE 2...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR ATLANTIC TERMINALS...ESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS
OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUE THAN PREV FEW DAYS SO HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
FCST. FOR KAFP...LAND BREEZE SETS UP OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING ESE
WINDS...BUT THESE SHOULD TRANSITION TO SW BY AROUND NOON ON TUE AS
GULF BREEZE INTRUDES. VCSH ALSO IN PLACE TUE AFTN FOR NAPLES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHWRS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR REST OF THIS EVENING FOR THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS AND TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AREAS...AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED IN
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING THAT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO MAKE THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR REST
OF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THESE AREAS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INDICATES
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE REMAINING AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE DRIVING THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 102-106 DEGREE
RANGE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT FORT LAUDERDALE WILL ONLY REACH 81 DEGREES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE LOW...WHICH WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD SET IN 1987 IF IT VERIFIES.
ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" MARK...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY FAVOR THE EAST COAST AREAS
IN PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW. THE
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM RISK WILL REMAIN LOW EACH DAY AS THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-TUESDAY)...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO REACH 2" ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 88 78 88 / 20 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 89 80 88 / 20 20 10 20
MIAMI 78 89 78 90 / 20 20 10 20
NAPLES 75 90 74 92 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KMFL 180125 AAC
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
925 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER..THERE WAS STILL SOME SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW STORMS OVER GLADES COUNTY THIS EVENING ALONG WITH A
FEW SHOWERS OVER METRO COLLIER COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING
HOURS.
THE LATEST PWAT VALUE FROM THE 00Z EVENING SOUNDING WAS AROUND 1.2
INCHES. THIS IS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW THE NORMAL PWAT OF
1.75 INCHES. SO THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN DRY AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER
ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN PLACE. THERE COULD
STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT..BUT THE
COVERAGE WILL BE AT BEST 10 PERCENT.
SO WILL KEEP THE THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND 20 PERCENT POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
METRO AREAS FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
FOR A 30 PERCENT EVENING POPS FOR GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.UPDATE 2...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 751 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AVIATION...
FOR ATLANTIC TERMINALS...ESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS
OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUE THAN PREV FEW DAYS SO HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
FCST. FOR KAFP...LAND BREEZE SETS UP OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING ESE
WINDS...BUT THESE SHOULD TRANSITION TO SW BY AROUND NOON ON TUE AS
GULF BREEZE INTRUDES. VCSH ALSO IN PLACE TUE AFTN FOR NAPLES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHWRS.
&&
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR REST OF THIS EVENING FOR THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS AND TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AREAS...AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED IN
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING THAT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO MAKE THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR REST
OF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THESE AREAS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INDICATES
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE REMAINING AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE DRIVING THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 102-106 DEGREE
RANGE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT FORT LAUDERDALE WILL ONLY REACH 81 DEGREES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE LOW...WHICH WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD SET IN 1987 IF IT VERIFIES.
ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" MARK...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY FAVOR THE EAST COAST AREAS
IN PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW. THE
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM RISK WILL REMAIN LOW EACH DAY AS THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-TUESDAY)...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO REACH 2" ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 79 88 77 88 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 82 90 80 89 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 80 90 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 76 91 75 90 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 172351
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
FOR ATLANTIC TERMINALS...ESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS
OVERNIGHT THEN INCREASE TO 10 KTS AFTER SUNRISE. SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON TUE THAN PREV FEW DAYS SO HAVE LEFT VCSH IN
FCST. FOR KAFP...LAND BREEZE SETS UP OVERNIGHT...PROVIDING ESE
WINDS...BUT THESE SHOULD TRANSITION TO SW BY AROUND NOON ON TUE AS
GULF BREEZE INTRUDES. VCSH ALSO IN PLACE TUE AFTN FOR NAPLES. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ANY SHWRS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 615 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR REST OF THIS EVENING FOR THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS AND TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AREAS...AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED IN
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING THAT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO MAKE THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR REST
OF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THESE AREAS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.
UPDATE...54/BNB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INDICATES
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE REMAINING AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE DRIVING THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 102-106 DEGREE
RANGE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT FORT LAUDERDALE WILL ONLY REACH 81 DEGREES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE LOW...WHICH WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD SET IN 1987 IF IT VERIFIES.
ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" MARK...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY FAVOR THE EAST COAST AREAS
IN PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW. THE
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM RISK WILL REMAIN LOW EACH DAY AS THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-TUESDAY)...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO REACH 2" ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS EACH DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 88 77 88 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 90 80 89 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 79 90 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 75 91 75 90 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 172215 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
615 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO REMOVE POPS FOR REST OF THIS EVENING FOR THE EAST
COAST METRO AREAS AND TO REDUCE POPS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AREAS...AS MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED IN
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE LATEST
HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL IS ALSO SHOWING THAT MOST OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO MAKE THE SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE
EASTERN AREAS AND OVER THE LOCAL WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR REST
OF THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...AS THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGES ARE
SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THESE AREAS.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 212 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INDICATES
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE REMAINING AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE DRIVING THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 102-106 DEGREE
RANGE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT FORT LAUDERDALE WILL ONLY REACH 81 DEGREES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE LOW...WHICH WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD SET IN 1987 IF IT VERIFIES.
ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" MARK...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY FAVOR THE EAST COAST AREAS
IN PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW. THE
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM RISK WILL REMAIN LOW EACH DAY AS THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.
LONG TERM (THURSDAY-TUESDAY)...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO REACH 2" ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
AVIATION...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 11 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WAS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR KAPF...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
FOR KAPF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHTER AND TURN TO
THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. SO SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES. FOR NOW...ADDED VCSH AFTER 14Z...AND VCTS MAY BE
NEEDED AROUND 18Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 88 77 88 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 90 80 89 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 79 90 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 75 91 75 90 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 171812
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
212 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INDICATES
THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE CURRENTLY IN PLACE REMAINING AS THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURE DRIVING THE LOCAL WEATHER THROUGH THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE LOCAL AREA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHERLY
FLOW CONTINUING. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN AROUND OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 102-106 DEGREE
RANGE EACH DAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR LOCATIONS. GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT FORT LAUDERDALE WILL ONLY REACH 81 DEGREES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS
THE LOW...WHICH WOULD TIE THE OLD RECORD SET IN 1987 IF IT VERIFIES.
ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO AROUND THE 2" MARK...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SLIGHTLY BETTER
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWER/TSTM COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE LOCAL AREA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY FAVOR THE EAST COAST AREAS
IN PALM BEACH COUNTY WHERE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE SSW. THE
STRONG TO SEVERE TSTM RISK WILL REMAIN LOW EACH DAY AS THE MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND H5 TEMPERATURES ARE NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE FROM
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS.
.LONG TERM (THURSDAY-TUESDAY)...
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE A
TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND. MODEL
PWS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE ARE FORECAST TO REACH 2" ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN BETTER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AROUND AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EACH DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AROUND 11 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE WAS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP NEAR KAPF...AND SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST
FOR KAPF THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHTER AND TURN TO
THE SOUTH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BRINGING IN DEEPER MOISTURE ACROSS
THE REGION. SO SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES. FOR NOW...ADDED VCSH AFTER 14Z...AND VCTS MAY BE
NEEDED AROUND 18Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS EACH
DAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
DESPITE THE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS EACH DAY. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...EXCEPT
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIODS AS THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZES
PENETRATES INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS OF COLLIER COUNTY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 78 88 77 88 / 10 30 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 81 90 80 89 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 79 90 78 89 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 75 91 75 90 / 20 30 20 30
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 171429
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1029 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.UPDATE...
OUTSIDE OF A FEW MINOR CHANGES WITHIN THE GRIDDED FORECAST
DATABASE BASED ON THE LATEST TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT
OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE REMAINS ON
TRACK WITH NO PRODUCT UPDATES NECESSARY AT THIS TIME. AS OF 1000
AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW/MID 80S ALONG THE EAST COAST
TO THE LOWER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WHERE HEAT INDICES WERE ALREADY IN THE MID/UPPER 90S. THE MORNING
UPPER AIR SOUNDING FOR MIAMI SHOWED MAINLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ESE
FLOW UP TO AROUND H5 WITH A PWAT AT 1.38" (FAIRLY DRY). THE LATEST
HRRR MODEL REFLECTIVITIES INDICATE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ISLTD/SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS INITIATING ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN
LOCATIONS OF THE PENINSULA BETWEEN 18-19Z THIS AFTERNOON.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 725 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH DEVELOPING SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE
INTERIOR. FEW-SCT025-035 WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
STREAMING FROM THE CARIB DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.
FORECAST PWAT`S ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1.4
INCHES. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA. FOR TUESDAY SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS IN ADDITION TO THE
ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE PENINSULA. BY WEDNESDAY
NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...DRIER AIR AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS COULD ENTER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND MIGHT CONTAIN A LOW LEVEL SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH HAZY
SKIES POSSIBLE BUT TIMING COULD VARY DEPENDING ON FUTURE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
MARINE...
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS WITH FAIRLY BENIGN SEAS. EXTENDED FORECAST INDICATES
SIMILAR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 78 88 77 / 10 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 81 89 79 / 10 10 20 20
MIAMI 89 79 90 78 / 10 10 20 20
NAPLES 92 76 91 75 / 40 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 171125
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
725 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH DEVELOPING SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE
INTERIOR. FEW-SCT025-035 WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS
STREAMING FROM THE CARIB DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013/
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.
FORECAST PWAT`S ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1.4
INCHES. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA. FOR TUESDAY SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS IN ADDITION TO THE
ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE PENINSULA. BY WEDNESDAY
NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...DRIER AIR AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS COULD ENTER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND MIGHT CONTAIN A LOW LEVEL SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH HAZY
SKIES POSSIBLE BUT TIMING COULD VARY DEPENDING ON FUTURE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
MARINE...
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS WITH FAIRLY BENIGN SEAS. EXTENDED FORECAST INDICATES
SIMILAR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 78 88 77 / 10 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 81 89 79 / 10 10 20 20
MIAMI 89 79 90 78 / 10 10 20 20
NAPLES 92 76 91 75 / 40 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...85/AG
AVIATION/RADAR...84/AK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 170811
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
411 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.
FORECAST PWAT`S ACROSS THE REGION ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 1.4
INCHES. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS FOR MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED IN THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
PENINSULA. FOR TUESDAY SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF WATERS WHICH COULD RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL GULF WATERS IN ADDITION TO THE
ACTIVITY IN THE INTERIOR REGIONS OF THE PENINSULA. BY WEDNESDAY
NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...DRIER AIR AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS COULD ENTER THE REGION ON
THURSDAY AND MIGHT CONTAIN A LOW LEVEL SAHARAN AIR LAYER WITH HAZY
SKIES POSSIBLE BUT TIMING COULD VARY DEPENDING ON FUTURE GUIDANCE.
OTHERWISE NORMAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
&&
.MARINE...
THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN
15 KNOTS WITH FAIRLY BENIGN SEAS. EXTENDED FORECAST INDICATES
SIMILAR CONDITIONS COULD PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
OUTSIDE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY, NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 88 78 88 77 / 10 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 88 81 89 79 / 10 10 20 20
MIAMI 89 79 90 78 / 10 10 20 20
NAPLES 92 76 91 75 / 40 20 30 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...60/BD
AVIATION/RADAR...57/DG
000
FXUS62 KMFL 170532
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
132 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.AVIATION...VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH DEVELOPING SCT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO CONCENTRATE OVER THE
INTERIOR, SO KEPT WEATHER OUT OF ALL TAFS AT THIS TIME. FEW-
SCT025-035 WITH SCT-BKN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE
CARIB DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY. /GREGORIA
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 952 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
UPDATE...
SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST IN THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST. OTHER THAN THAT, LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUING
WELL INTO THE EVENING OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL REGION FROM EXTREME
NORTHWEST COLLIER COUNTY TO SOUTH OF EVERGLADES CITY. THIS AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST AND SLOWLY DIMINISH BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING HUMIDITY UP WARM
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST.
KOB
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 809 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
AVIATION...
VCTS REMAINS IN KAPF TAF UNTIL 2Z...AS CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS 20-30
MILES E OF TERMINAL ATTM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO CIGS
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. REMOTE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER
MONDAY...BUT FAR TO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN TAFS. ESE WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR AT NAPLES WHERE
SEA-BREEZES WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WEST IN AFTERNOON. ANY FOG EARLY
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN INLAND OF TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL POPS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS WEEK BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER
PATTERN...
SHORT TERM...
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE 500 MB HIGH
OF 951-952 THICKNESSES REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
EAST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR
REGIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT POPS OVER THE
METRO AREAS TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND EXTEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 500 MB HIGH WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA...AND
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. SO
HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND ADDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
LATE THIS WEEK...AS SOME AFRICAN DUST LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WATERS COULD MOVE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE AFRICAN DUST MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK...THIS COULD HELP REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFRICAN DUST THROUGH THE WEEK TO SEE IF IT
WILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATER IS FORECAST BY
THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND COULD MOVE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TROPICAL WAVE
THROUGH THE WEEK TO SEE IF THE POPS NEED TO BE RAISED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SWINGING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS
THE SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS
BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. SO BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT
CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST AREAS FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE:
06/17/2013 06/17/3013 06/18/2013 06/18/2013
CITIES FORECAST LOWS WARMEST MIN TEMPS FORECAST LOWS WARMEST MIN TEMPS
MIA 79 82 - 1998 79 82 - 1998
FLL 80 81 - 1998 80 81 - 1987
PBI 77 80 - 2006 77 80 - 1987
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 89 77 89 / 10 20 20 30
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 90 80 89 / 10 20 20 20
MIAMI 79 90 79 90 / 10 20 20 20
NAPLES 75 91 75 90 / 10 20 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KMFL 170152
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
952 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
SOME MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO ADD MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER
ALONG THE COLLIER COUNTY COAST IN THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
FORECAST. OTHER THAN THAT, LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION CONTINUING
WELL INTO THE EVENING OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL REGION FROM EXTREME
NORTHWEST COLLIER COUNTY TO SOUTH OF EVERGLADES CITY. THIS AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY WEST AND SLOWLY DIMINISH BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME
WITH A LIGHT LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING HUMIDITY UP WARM
TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST COAST.
KOB
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 809 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
AVIATION...
VCTS REMAINS IN KAPF TAF UNTIL 2Z...AS CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS 20-30
MILES E OF TERMINAL ATTM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO CIGS
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. REMOTE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER
MONDAY...BUT FAR TO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN TAFS. ESE WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR AT NAPLES WHERE
SEA-BREEZES WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WEST IN AFTERNOON. ANY FOG EARLY
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN INLAND OF TERMINALS.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
.CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL POPS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS WEEK BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER
PATTERN...
SHORT TERM...
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE 500 MB HIGH
OF 951-952 THICKNESSES REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
EAST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR
REGIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT POPS OVER THE
METRO AREAS TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND EXTEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 500 MB HIGH WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA...AND
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. SO
HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND ADDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
LATE THIS WEEK...AS SOME AFRICAN DUST LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WATERS COULD MOVE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE AFRICAN DUST MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK...THIS COULD HELP REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFRICAN DUST THROUGH THE WEEK TO SEE IF IT
WILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATER IS FORECAST BY
THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND COULD MOVE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TROPICAL WAVE
THROUGH THE WEEK TO SEE IF THE POPS NEED TO BE RAISED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SWINGING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS
THE SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS
BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. SO BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT
CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST AREAS FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE:
06/17/2013 06/17/3013 06/18/2013 06/18/2013
CITIES FORECAST LOWS WARMEST MIN TEMPS FORECAST LOWS WARMEST MIN TEMPS
MIA 79 82 - 1998 79 82 - 1998
FLL 80 81 - 1998 80 81 - 1987
PBI 77 80 - 2006 77 80 - 1987
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 89 77 89 / 10 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 90 80 90 / 10 10 10 20
MIAMI 79 90 79 90 / 10 10 10 20
NAPLES 75 92 75 91 / 30 10 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
000
FXUS62 KMFL 170009
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
809 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.AVIATION...
VCTS REMAINS IN KAPF TAF UNTIL 2Z...AS CLUSTER OF TSTMS IS 20-30
MILES E OF TERMINAL ATTM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH NO CIGS
FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY. REMOTE CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWER
MONDAY...BUT FAR TO LOW OF A CHANCE TO MENTION IN TAFS. ESE WINDS
WILL BE AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH MONDAY...EXCEPT FOR AT NAPLES WHERE
SEA-BREEZES WILL SHIFT WINDS TO WEST IN AFTERNOON. ANY FOG EARLY
MONDAY MORNING SHOULD REMAIN INLAND OF TERMINALS.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
..CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL POPS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS WEEK BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER
PATTERN...
SHORT TERM...
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE 500 MB HIGH
OF 951-952 THICKNESSES REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
EAST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR
REGIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT POPS OVER THE
METRO AREAS TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND EXTEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 500 MB HIGH WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA...AND
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. SO
HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND ADDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
LATE THIS WEEK...AS SOME AFRICAN DUST LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WATERS COULD MOVE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE AFRICAN DUST MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK...THIS COULD HELP REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFRICAN DUST THROUGH THE WEEK TO SEE IF IT
WILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATER IS FORECAST BY
THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND COULD MOVE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TROPICAL WAVE
THROUGH THE WEEK TO SEE IF THE POPS NEED TO BE RAISED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SWINGING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS
THE SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS
BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. SO BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT
CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST AREAS FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE:
06/17/2013 06/17/3013 06/18/2013 06/18/2013
CITIES FORECAST LOWS WARMEST MIN TEMPS FORECAST LOWS WARMEST MIN TEMPS
MIA 79 82 - 1998 79 82 - 1998
FLL 80 81 - 1998 80 81 - 1987
PBI 77 80 - 2006 77 80 - 1987
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 89 77 89 / 10 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 90 80 90 / 10 10 10 20
MIAMI 79 90 79 90 / 10 10 10 20
NAPLES 75 92 75 91 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...30/KOB
AVIATION/RADAR...23/SK
000
FXUS62 KMFL 161854
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
254 PM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
...CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL POPS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY
THIS WEEK BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE TYPICAL SUMMER TIME WEATHER
PATTERN...
.SHORT TERM...
THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT...AS THE 500 MB HIGH
OF 951-952 THICKNESSES REMAIN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
EAST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL KEEP AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEING SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR
REGIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT POPS OVER THE
METRO AREAS TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND EXTEND OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AS A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SAME TIME...THE 500 MB HIGH WILL
WEAKEN OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW
FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OVER THE AREA...AND
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. SO
HAVE SHIFTED THE HIGHEST POPS TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION FOR
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND ADDED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS
LATE THIS WEEK...AS SOME AFRICAN DUST LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC WATERS COULD MOVE NORTHWEST INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL
KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK WHICH WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE AFRICAN DUST MOVES INTO THE AREA
LATE THIS WEEK...THIS COULD HELP REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. SO WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESSION OF THE AFRICAN DUST THROUGH THE WEEK TO SEE IF IT
WILL AFFECT SOUTH FLORIDA.
ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WATER IS FORECAST BY
THE LONG RANGE MODELS TO MOVE WEST TO NORTHWEST AND COULD MOVE INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA BY NEXT WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE
SCATTERED RANGE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS TROPICAL WAVE
THROUGH THE WEEK TO SEE IF THE POPS NEED TO BE RAISED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION...
FOR THE SHORT TERM...ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEASTERN MIAMI DADE BUT THEY ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AND FADE AWAY AS DEVELOPMENT BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND.
REGARDLESS VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH FORECAST
PERIOD OUTSIDE A BRIEF MVFR CIG ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS IN THE AREA
AT MIA, OPF, OR TMB THROUGH FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. AT APF, VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. VFR TO
PREVAIL OUTSIDE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN IFR FOR CEILINGS AND
VIS IF A TSTM MOVES OVER AIRPORT. BUT HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME
AND MORE OF A HIT AND MISS. SO JUST PLACED VCTS IN APF TAF FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WIND FORECAST...ESE AROUND 9-13 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON EAST COAST
SITES BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND 5-10 KTS BY TOMORROW MORNING.
AT APF, SW COAST C-BRZ OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT, AROUND 5 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING WITH
C-BRZ OF 5 TO 10 DEVELOPING AGAIN EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
&&
.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE SLOWLY SWINGING TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION AS
THE SPEEDS DECREASE TO 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS
BELOW 6 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. SO BOATING CONDITIONS LOOK GOOD
THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT
CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.
&&
.CLIMATE...
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EAST COAST AREAS FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE NEAR TO THE WARMEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH ARE:
06/17/2013 06/17/3013 06/18/2013 06/18/2013
CITIES FORECAST LOWS WARMEST MIN TEMPS FORECAST LOWS WARMEST MIN TEMPS
MIA 79 82 - 1998 79 81 - 1920
FLL 80 81 - 1998 80 81 - 1987
PBI 77 80 - 2006 77 80 - 1987
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 77 89 77 89 / 10 10 10 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 80 90 80 90 / 10 10 10 20
MIAMI 79 90 79 90 / 10 10 10 20
NAPLES 75 92 75 91 / 10 10 10 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...54/BNB
AVIATION/RADAR...52/PS
000
FXUS62 KMFL 161402 AAB
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1002 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.UPDATE...
A SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WITH A
500 MB HIGH OF 591-592 THICKNESSES OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING
EAST INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY PUSHING THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INLAND...WHILE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE
EAST COAST METRO AREAS SHOULD ONLY SEE A FEW SHOWERS TODAY...WHILE
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS WILL SEE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SOME DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS HAVE ALSO WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH...AS THE 500 MB TEMPS HAVE ALSO COOLED A
LITTLE BIT FROM -5C YESTERDAY TO -7C TODAY. SO THERE COULD BE SOME
STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACTS BEING GUSTY WINDS
UP TO 50 MPH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES.
THE OTHER CHANGE IS TO REMOVE THE THUNDER WORDING FOR THE ATLANTIC
WATERS FOR TONIGHT...DUE TO THE STRONG MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE AREA.
REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.
&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 722 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
AVIATION...
THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TONIGHT. FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...THE WEATHER SHOULD
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE TERMINAL KAPF COULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFTER 18Z. SO HAVE PUT IN VCSH FOR KAPF TAF SITE FROM 18Z
UNTIL 23Z TODAY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL
BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER 18Z AR0UND 10 KNOTS AS THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES PUSHES THROUGH.
&&
AVIATION...BNB/BD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE AND
LOWER LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WHICH
ACTUALLY WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD. GPS MET DATA
SHOWS PWATS LOWERING A TAD. SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS
DRIER AIR OVER THE BAHAMAS WHICH WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY.
SO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER
THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN INTERIOR/LAKE REGION AS A SE
STEERING FLOW WILL PREVAIL. BY WEDNESDAY, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A
MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THE STEERING FLOW LIGHTENS, SO
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE ON OUTFLOWS...SO HAVE HIGHER POPS
TOWARDS THE COASTS ON WED. IT`S STILL LOOKING LIKE A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER (SAL) MOVES INTO SOUTH FL POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON,
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW THE SAL THEN, BUT MORESO ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT A BIT. THE SAL
REALLY SHOWED UP WELL IN THE SAN JUAN, PR AND BARBADOS SOUNDINGS
YESTERDAY. OF COURSE IT WILL DISPERSE AS IT TRAVELS HERE, BUT HAZY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED CENTERED AROUND THURSDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.
WHILE CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE LIMITED AS THE SAL ENTERS THE
AREA, WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR STRONGER TSTORMS DUE TO THE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAL.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT
BEHIND IT AND PWATS SURGING TO ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS IS MORE
PRONOUNCED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO HAVE KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS IN
THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT LESS THAN 15 KT WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 4 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS RH`S REMAIN TYPICALLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION...FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE ARE SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF
TERMINAL KPBI THAT MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS THEY PASS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THE REMAINING EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WHILE FOR TERMINAL KAPF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE CLOSER
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 90 77 88 78 / 10 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 81 89 81 / 10 10 20 20
MIAMI 91 79 90 79 / 10 10 20 20
NAPLES 91 76 91 75 / 20 10 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/DG
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD
000
FXUS62 KMFL 161122 AAA
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
722 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.AVIATION...
THE TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE TONIGHT. FOR THE EAST COAST TERMINALS...THE WEATHER SHOULD
REMAIN DRY TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WHILE TERMINAL KAPF COULD SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AFTER 18Z. SO HAVE PUT IN VCSH FOR KAPF TAF SITE FROM 18Z
UNTIL 23Z TODAY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS
THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. FOR KAPF TAF SITE...THE WINDS WILL
BE EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A
WESTERLY DIRECTION AFTER 18Z AR0UND 10 KNOTS AS THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES PUSHES THROUGH.
&&
.AVIATION...BNB/BD
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013/
DISCUSSION...
RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE AND
LOWER LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WHICH
ACTUALLY WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD. GPS MET DATA
SHOWS PWATS LOWERING A TAD. SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS
DRIER AIR OVER THE BAHAMAS WHICH WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY.
SO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER
THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN INTERIOR/LAKE REGION AS A SE
STEERING FLOW WILL PREVAIL. BY WEDNESDAY, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A
MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THE STEERING FLOW LIGHTENS, SO
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE ON OUTFLOWS...SO HAVE HIGHER POPS
TOWARDS THE COASTS ON WED. IT`S STILL LOOKING LIKE A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER (SAL) MOVES INTO SOUTH FL POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON,
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW THE SAL THEN, BUT MORESO ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT A BIT. THE SAL
REALLY SHOWED UP WELL IN THE SAN JUAN, PR AND BARBADOS SOUNDINGS
YESTERDAY. OF COURSE IT WILL DISPERSE AS IT TRAVELS HERE, BUT HAZY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED CENTERED AROUND THURSDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.
WHILE CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE LIMITED AS THE SAL ENTERS THE
AREA, WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR STRONGER TSTORMS DUE TO THE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAL.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT
BEHIND IT AND PWATS SURGING TO ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS IS MORE
PRONOUNCED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO HAVE KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS IN
THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
MARINE...WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT LESS THAN 15 KT WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 4 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS RH`S REMAIN TYPICALLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.
AVIATION...FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE ARE SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF
TERMINAL KPBI THAT MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS THEY PASS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THE REMAINING EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WHILE FOR TERMINAL KAPF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE CLOSER
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 88 78 / 20 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 81 89 81 / 20 10 20 20
MIAMI 91 79 90 79 / 20 10 20 20
NAPLES 91 76 91 75 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/DG
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD
000
FXUS62 KMFL 160735
AFDMFL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
335 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013
.DISCUSSION...
RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH FL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AT THE SURFACE AND
LOWER LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE NORTH OF THE AREA FROM THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WHICH
ACTUALLY WILL PREDOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK AHEAD. GPS MET DATA
SHOWS PWATS LOWERING A TAD. SATELLITE DERIVED PWAT IMAGERY SHOWS
DRIER AIR OVER THE BAHAMAS WHICH WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST TODAY.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTH FL TODAY.
SO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THIS
MORNING.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
FAIRLY DRY AIR IN PLACE WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED OVER
THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN INTERIOR/LAKE REGION AS A SE
STEERING FLOW WILL PREVAIL. BY WEDNESDAY, THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF A
MID LEVEL TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THE STEERING FLOW LIGHTENS, SO
CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP ANYWHERE ON OUTFLOWS...SO HAVE HIGHER POPS
TOWARDS THE COASTS ON WED. IT`S STILL LOOKING LIKE A SAHARAN AIR
LAYER (SAL) MOVES INTO SOUTH FL POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS WED AFTERNOON,
AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS BEGIN TO SHOW THE SAL THEN, BUT MORESO ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WHEN THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT A BIT. THE SAL
REALLY SHOWED UP WELL IN THE SAN JUAN, PR AND BARBADOS SOUNDINGS
YESTERDAY. OF COURSE IT WILL DISPERSE AS IT TRAVELS HERE, BUT HAZY
SKIES ARE EXPECTED CENTERED AROUND THURSDAY AS IT LOOKS NOW.
WHILE CONVECTION COULD BECOME MORE LIMITED AS THE SAL ENTERS THE
AREA, WILL HAVE TO WATCH OUT FOR STRONGER TSTORMS DUE TO THE
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SAL.
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, THE LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FL WITH SE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT
BEHIND IT AND PWATS SURGING TO ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS IS MORE
PRONOUNCED THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...AND THE LATEST ECMWF IS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE, SO HAVE KEPT JUST CHANCE POPS IN
THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.
&&
.MARINE...WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT LESS THAN 15 KT WITH SEAS LESS
THAN 4 FT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...NO CONCERNS AS RH`S REMAIN TYPICALLY HIGH FOR THIS
TIME OF THE YEAR.
&&
.AVIATION...FOR THE SHORT TERM...THERE ARE SHOWERS TO THE EAST OF
TERMINAL KPBI THAT MAY RESULT IN BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AS THEY PASS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...THE
REMAINING TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THE REMAINING EARLY MORNING HOURS. FOR THIS AFTERNOON...FOR THE
EAST COAST TERMINALS ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WHILE FOR TERMINAL KAPF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE CLOSER
WITH THE POTENTIAL OF BRIEF PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH
OCCURRENCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH 89 77 88 78 / 20 10 20 20
FORT LAUDERDALE 90 81 89 81 / 20 10 20 20
MIAMI 91 79 90 79 / 20 10 20 20
NAPLES 91 76 91 75 / 20 20 20 20
&&
.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE...57/GREGORIA
AVIATION/RADAR...60/BD
| 
