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000
FXUS62 KMFL 060814
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
414 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...


A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN CUBA. IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT LOW LEVEL STRATUS CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO STREAM SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC AMD GULF
WATERS. IN GENERAL SOME SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS BUT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES CLEARING IS EXPECTED WITH
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BRING IN DRIER AIR FROM NORTH AND
CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA.

RIP CURRENT RISK...WHILE A SWELL IS NOT FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS...PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ELEVATED SEAS THIS
MORNING COULD CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ACROSS THE
GULF COAST BEACHES TODAY BUT WILL BE SLIGHT FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR
THE ATLANTIC COAST BEACHES ONLY A SLIGHT RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
EXPECTED TODAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

FORECAST FOR TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH A DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. AT
THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS A RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
GULF OVER THE WEEKEND. BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE WEATHER IS FORECAST. TONIGHT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES COULD POSSIBLY BE IN LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN INTERIOR PENINSULA WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60
POSSIBLE FOR PALM BEACH COUNTY METRO AREAS AND LOWER 60S FOR THE
REMAINING ATLANTIC METRO AREAS. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND IS
FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY WITH EASTERLY WINDS
FORECAST TO RETURN TO THE REGION.

FORECAST FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST
THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH A DRY FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHEROR
ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.


&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS FROM 4 TO 5 FEET MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE OFF SHORE GULF WATERS AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING.
BUT WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY INTO
THE WEEKEND. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY INTO SATURDAY ARE FORECAST
TO BECOME EASTERLY LATER ON SUNDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES DRIER AIR AND LOWER DEW POINTS WILL ENTER
SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS DEW POINTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PALM BEACH
COUNTY AND GENERALLY ABOVE 50 DEGREES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT PORTIONS
OF GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF PALM BEACH COUNTY ARE FORECAST TO GO
BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR 4 OR MORE HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PENINSULA HOWEVER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD GO BELOW CRITICAL
LEVELS ONLY FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MAINLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.

FOR THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY...IT WILL BE DROPPED
BECAUSE BOTH THE FORECAST ERC VALUES FOR TODAY AND THE 20 FOOT
WINDS ARE BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS. HOWEVER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR TODAY ACROSS PALM BEACH COUNTY...BUT MAINLY
FOR THE NORTHERN HALF.

FOR THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT SATURDAY...WILL LET THAT
CONTINUE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST AND WITH MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
PENINSULA. BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IT WILL BE CONTINUED UNLESS ADDITIONAL
GUIDANCE IS INCONSISTENT WITH CURRENT FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  56  82  60 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  62  81  65 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            83  60  81  64 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           81  59  81  61 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 060540
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
140 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WIND WILL BECOME GUSTY
LATER IN THE MORNING AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHTER IN THE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

02/RAG

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 806 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

UPDATE...
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE OBSERVED ON RADAR MOVING DOWN THE
GULF COASTLINE FROM NAPLES TO MARCO ISLAND. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND...DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. MORE
DRY AIR WILL DESCEND UPON THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL
KEEP GENERALLY BENIGN AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY
SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
CLOSER TO SOUTH FL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE. 17/AR

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING ACROSS SOUTH FL AS
A RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW IN THE WAKE OF A
FROPA. A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS IS NOW FILTERING INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING NW WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST
METRO AREAS OF SE FL...AND SCATTERED STABLE STRATOCU STREAMING
OVER NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

EXPECT BENIGN AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM AS ANOTHER...DRY
FRONT...MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER BY FRI...WITH TEMPS DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS BY FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. VERTICAL X-SECT ANALYSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RATHER
STABLE AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SE TO BRING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES. 17/AR

MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT OVER MOST
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL BEACHES
FOR TONIGHT. 17/AR

FIRE WEATHER...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS EITHER
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE STILL COMING VERY CLOSE TO
BORDERLINE CRITERIA, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME DRYING OF FUELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IN PLACE TONIGHT AND LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT DECIDE IF FURTHER
ACTION IS REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. 17/AR

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  59  80  61 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  62  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            83  60  82  65 /  10   0   0   0
NAPLES           80  60  81  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...02/RAG





000
FXUS62 KMFL 060006
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
806 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE OBSERVED ON RADAR MOVING DOWN THE
GULF COASTLINE FROM NAPLES TO MARCO ISLAND. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND...DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. MORE
DRY AIR WILL DESCEND UPON THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL
KEEP GENERALLY BENIGN AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY
SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
CLOSER TO SOUTH FL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MOVING DOWN THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KAPF THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. WILL EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS MIXING TO
THE SURFACE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING ACROSS SOUTH FL AS
A RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW IN THE WAKE OF A
FROPA. A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS IS NOW FILTERING INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING NW WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST
METRO AREAS OF SE FL...AND SCATTERED STABLE STRATOCU STREAMING
OVER NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

EXPECT BENIGN AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM AS ANOTHER...DRY
FRONT...MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER BY FRI...WITH TEMPS DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS BY FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. VERTICAL X-SECT ANALYSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RATHER
STABLE AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SE TO BRING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT OVER MOST
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL BEACHES
FOR TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS EITHER
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE STILL COMING VERY CLOSE TO
BORDERLINE CRITERIA, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME DRYING OF FUELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IN PLACE TONIGHT AND LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT DECIDE IF FURTHER
ACTION IS REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  82  59  80 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  65  82  62  82 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            66  83  60  82 /  10  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  80  60  81 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...17/AR





000
FXUS62 KMFL 060006
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
806 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS CAN BE OBSERVED ON RADAR MOVING DOWN THE
GULF COASTLINE FROM NAPLES TO MARCO ISLAND. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH THESE SHOWERS WHICH ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SECOND...DRY COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. MORE
DRY AIR WILL DESCEND UPON THE AREA BEHIND THIS FRONT...WHICH WILL
KEEP GENERALLY BENIGN AND PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE PERIODS OF BREEZY WINDS FROM EARLIER TODAY
SHOULD SUBSIDE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A SFC RIDGE MOVES
CLOSER TO SOUTH FL. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MOVING DOWN THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KAPF THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. WILL EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS MIXING TO
THE SURFACE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING ACROSS SOUTH FL AS
A RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW IN THE WAKE OF A
FROPA. A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS IS NOW FILTERING INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING NW WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST
METRO AREAS OF SE FL...AND SCATTERED STABLE STRATOCU STREAMING
OVER NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

EXPECT BENIGN AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM AS ANOTHER...DRY
FRONT...MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER BY FRI...WITH TEMPS DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS BY FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. VERTICAL X-SECT ANALYSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RATHER
STABLE AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SE TO BRING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT OVER MOST
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL BEACHES
FOR TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS EITHER
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE STILL COMING VERY CLOSE TO
BORDERLINE CRITERIA, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME DRYING OF FUELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IN PLACE TONIGHT AND LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT DECIDE IF FURTHER
ACTION IS REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  82  59  80 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  65  82  62  82 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            66  83  60  82 /  10  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  80  60  81 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...17/AR





000
FXUS62 KMFL 052332
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MOVING DOWN THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KAPF THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. WILL EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS MIXING TO
THE SURFACE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING ACROSS SOUTH FL AS
A RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW IN THE WAKE OF A
FROPA. A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS IS NOW FILTERING INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING NW WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST
METRO AREAS OF SE FL...AND SCATTERED STABLE STRATOCU STREAMING
OVER NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

EXPECT BENIGN AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM AS ANOTHER...DRY
FRONT...MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER BY FRI...WITH TEMPS DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS BY FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. VERTICAL X-SECT ANALYSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RATHER
STABLE AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SE TO BRING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT OVER MOST
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL BEACHES
FOR TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS EITHER
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE STILL COMING VERY CLOSE TO
BORDERLINE CRITERIA, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME DRYING OF FUELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IN PLACE TONIGHT AND LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT DECIDE IF FURTHER
ACTION IS REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  82  59  80 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  65  82  62  82 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            66  83  60  82 /  10  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  80  60  81 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/AR
LONG TERM....17/AR
AVIATION.....99/PZ





000
FXUS62 KMFL 052332
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...A FEW SHOWERS MOVING DOWN THE FLORIDA GULF COAST WILL
BE IN THE VICINITY OF KAPF THROUGH 03Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT
AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. WILL EXPECT GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO
DEVELOP LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH WINDS MIXING TO
THE SURFACE.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING ACROSS SOUTH FL AS
A RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW IN THE WAKE OF A
FROPA. A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS IS NOW FILTERING INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING NW WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST
METRO AREAS OF SE FL...AND SCATTERED STABLE STRATOCU STREAMING
OVER NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

EXPECT BENIGN AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM AS ANOTHER...DRY
FRONT...MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER BY FRI...WITH TEMPS DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS BY FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. VERTICAL X-SECT ANALYSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RATHER
STABLE AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SE TO BRING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT OVER MOST
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL BEACHES
FOR TONIGHT.

FIRE WEATHER...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS EITHER
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE STILL COMING VERY CLOSE TO
BORDERLINE CRITERIA, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME DRYING OF FUELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IN PLACE TONIGHT AND LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT DECIDE IF FURTHER
ACTION IS REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  82  59  80 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  65  82  62  82 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            66  83  60  82 /  10  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  80  60  81 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/AR
LONG TERM....17/AR
AVIATION.....99/PZ





000
FXUS62 KMFL 052100
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING ACROSS SOUTH FL AS
A RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW IN THE WAKE OF A
FROPA. A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS IS NOW FILTERING INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING NW WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST
METRO AREAS OF SE FL...AND SCATTERED STABLE STRATOCU STREAMING
OVER NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

EXPECT BENIGN AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM AS ANOTHER...DRY
FRONT...MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER BY FRI...WITH TEMPS DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS BY FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. VERTICAL X-SECT ANALYSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RATHER
STABLE AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SE TO BRING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT OVER MOST
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL BEACHES
FOR TONIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS EITHER
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE STILL COMING VERY CLOSE TO
BORDERLINE CRITERIA, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME DRYING OF FUELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IN PLACE TONIGHT AND LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT DECIDE IF FURTHER
ACTION IS REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  82  59  80 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  65  82  62  82 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            66  83  60  82 /  10  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  80  60  81 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/AR
LONG TERM....17/AR





000
FXUS62 KMFL 052100
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
500 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS NOW BUILDING ACROSS SOUTH FL AS
A RIDGE EXPANDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW IN THE WAKE OF A
FROPA. A DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS IS NOW FILTERING INTO THE
REGION...ALONG WITH PREVAILING NW WINDS. SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON DEPICTED GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST
METRO AREAS OF SE FL...AND SCATTERED STABLE STRATOCU STREAMING
OVER NORTHERN AND INTERIOR SECTIONS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

EXPECT BENIGN AND PLEASANT WEATHER TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A LOW
CHANCE OF A FEW VERY LIGHT SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM AS ANOTHER...DRY
FRONT...MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SHOW WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER BY FRI...WITH TEMPS DECREASING INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S
OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS BY FRI NIGHT.

LONG TERM...MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY MIGRATING EAST DURING THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. VERTICAL X-SECT ANALYSES AND MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RATHER
STABLE AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FL THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS AND
LIGHT WINDS.

BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN
AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ALLOWING FOR MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SE TO BRING
A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
IS RESULTING IN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS TONIGHT OVER MOST
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY BETWEEN 4 AND 6 FEET OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
INTO NEXT WEEK...MAINLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS HAS BEEN POSTED FOR ALL BEACHES
FOR TONIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS EITHER
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY AS WIND SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE WITH HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY ARE STILL COMING VERY CLOSE TO
BORDERLINE CRITERIA, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. THIS COMBINED WITH
SOME DRYING OF FUELS WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IN PLACE TONIGHT AND LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT DECIDE IF FURTHER
ACTION IS REQUIRED FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  82  59  80 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  65  82  62  82 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            66  83  60  82 /  10  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  80  60  81 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/AR
LONG TERM....17/AR





000
FXUS62 KMFL 052023
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
423 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO LIGHT
OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER NEAR KAPF TAF
SITE IN THE EVENING...BUT TOO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAF WORDING.
EXCPECT VFR CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AS WELL.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 128 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE WEATHER
WILL STAY DRY AND THE VIS AND CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE DRY
CONDITION...AS THE NEXT WORK MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
WILL BE A DRY FRONT.

AVIATION..54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

UPDATE...
THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS
FRONT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ONLY CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. THEREFORE...THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE MID 50S OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SOUTHEAST METRO
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW THE FORECAST DEW POINTS. WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING
IN DRIER AIR TODAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...THE DEW POINTS WILL BE
LOWER ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
FALL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS GETTING DOWN TO AROUND
30 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH
AND THE ERC`S SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 37 THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...NO FIRE HAZARDS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS
TO FALL FROM 5 TO 7 FEET THIS MORNING TO 4 TO 6 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GULF WATER SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE ALLOW TO EXPIRED AROUND NOON TODAY
WITH AN SCEC FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. REST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS WILL BE IN A SCEC FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15 KTS GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT AROUND 20 KTS GUST TO 30 KNOTS FOR KAPF TAF
SITE. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING BEFORE SWINGING BACK TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND
VIS.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT THAT LED TO A RAINY WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW QUIET WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS DEEPENING WITH TIME
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING TODAY EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND DEEP MIXING TO
BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND A
DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE 50S
INTERIOR SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MIGHT BE THE LAST TIME WE SEE
READINGS THAT COOL FOR AWHILE.

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING VERY PLEASANT WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD A BIT, WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR GRADUAL RETURN
OF MOISTURE ON EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT HAS LED TO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR 7 FEET ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WAS EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX JUST ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING UNDER SUNNY
SKIES TODAY SHOULD PROMOTE DEEP MIXING, BRINGING SUSTAINED WINDS
UP TO NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY INTERIOR AREAS. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION
WILL PREVAIL TODAY, HOWEVER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S AND ERC VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO BE APPROACHED TODAY.

CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT ON REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE BORDERLINE, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. HOWEVER
SOME DRYING OF FUELS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA DID NOT PICK UP A LOT OF RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE GIVEN THE LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER COORDINATION LATER TODAY WITH
PARTNER AGENCIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  61  82  59  80 /  10   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  65  82  62  82 /  10   0   0   0
MIAMI            66  83  60  82 /  10  10   0   0
NAPLES           63  80  60  81 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...99/PZ





000
FXUS62 KMFL 051728 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
128 PM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FORM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 15 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DECREASING TO 5 KNOTS TONIGHT. THE WEATHER
WILL STAY DRY AND THE VIS AND CEILING WILL REMAIN IN THE DRY
CONDITION...AS THE NEXT WORK MOVING THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT
WILL BE A DRY FRONT.


&&
.AVIATION..54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

UPDATE...
THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS
FRONT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ONLY CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. THEREFORE...THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE MID 50S OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SOUTHEAST METRO
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW THE FORECAST DEW POINTS. WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING
IN DRIER AIR TODAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...THE DEW POINTS WILL BE
LOWER ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
FALL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS GETTING DOWN TO AROUND
30 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH
AND THE ERC`S SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 37 THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...NO FIRE HAZARDS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS
TO FALL FROM 5 TO 7 FEET THIS MORNING TO 4 TO 6 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GULF WATER SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE ALLOW TO EXPIRED AROUND NOON TODAY
WITH AN SCEC FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. REST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS WILL BE IN A SCEC FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15 KTS GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT AROUND 20 KTS GUST TO 30 KNOTS FOR KAPF TAF
SITE. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING BEFORE SWINGING BACK TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND
VIS.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT THAT LED TO A RAINY WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW QUIET WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS DEEPENING WITH TIME
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING TODAY EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND DEEP MIXING TO
BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND A
DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE 50S
INTERIOR SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MIGHT BE THE LAST TIME WE SEE
READINGS THAT COOL FOR AWHILE.

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING VERY PLEASANT WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD A BIT, WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR GRADUAL RETURN
OF MOISTURE ON EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT HAS LED TO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR 7 FEET ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WAS EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX JUST ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING UNDER SUNNY
SKIES TODAY SHOULD PROMOTE DEEP MIXING, BRINGING SUSTAINED WINDS
UP TO NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY INTERIOR AREAS. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION
WILL PREVAIL TODAY, HOWEVER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S AND ERC VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO BE APPROACHED TODAY.

CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT ON REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE BORDERLINE, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. HOWEVER
SOME DRYING OF FUELS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA DID NOT PICK UP A LOT OF RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE GIVEN THE LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER COORDINATION LATER TODAY WITH
PARTNER AGENCIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  58  81  56 /  10  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  65  83  63 /  10  10   0   0
MIAMI            84  63  83  62 /  10  10   0   0
NAPLES           81  63  79  62 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....22/KS
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 051357 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
957 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.UPDATE...
THE FIRST COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS MORNING
WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOCATED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE
SECOND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TODAY DOWN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS EVENING. THIS
FRONT SHOULD BE A DRY FRONT AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA WITH
ONLY CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH. THEREFORE...THE POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED
FROM THE FORECAST FOR TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

THE DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING HAVE BEEN RUNNING IN THE MID 50S OVER
THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION TO AROUND 60 OVER THE SOUTHEAST METRO
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. THESE DEW POINTS ARE ABOUT 2 TO 5 DEGREES
BELOW THE FORECAST DEW POINTS. WITH THE NORTHWEST WINDS BRINGING
IN DRIER AIR TODAY INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...THE DEW POINTS WILL BE
LOWER ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
FALL DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS GETTING DOWN TO AROUND
30 PERCENT. HOWEVER...THE 20 FOOT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH
AND THE ERC`S SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 37 THIS AFTERNOON OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THEREFORE...NO FIRE HAZARDS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
TODAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS WILL DECREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. REST OF SOUTH FLORIDA
WATERS WILL ALSO DECREASE FROM 15 TO 20 KNOTS THIS MORNING TO 10
TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE ATLANTIC SEAS
TO FALL FROM 5 TO 7 FEET THIS MORNING TO 4 TO 6 FEET THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GULF WATER SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW 6 FEET TODAY.
THEREFORE...THE SCA WILL BE ALLOW TO EXPIRED AROUND NOON TODAY
WITH AN SCEC FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS. REST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS WILL BE IN A SCEC FOR THE MORNING HOURS.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 748 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15 KTS GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT AROUND 20 KTS GUST TO 30 KNOTS FOR KAPF TAF
SITE. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING BEFORE SWINGING BACK TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND
VIS.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT THAT LED TO A RAINY WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW QUIET WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS DEEPENING WITH TIME
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING TODAY EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND DEEP MIXING TO
BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND A
DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE 50S
INTERIOR SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MIGHT BE THE LAST TIME WE SEE
READINGS THAT COOL FOR AWHILE.

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING VERY PLEASANT WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD A BIT, WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR GRADUAL RETURN
OF MOISTURE ON EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT HAS LED TO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR 7 FEET ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WAS EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX JUST ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING UNDER SUNNY
SKIES TODAY SHOULD PROMOTE DEEP MIXING, BRINGING SUSTAINED WINDS
UP TO NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY INTERIOR AREAS. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION
WILL PREVAIL TODAY, HOWEVER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S AND ERC VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO BE APPROACHED TODAY.

CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT ON REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE BORDERLINE, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. HOWEVER
SOME DRYING OF FUELS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA DID NOT PICK UP A LOT OF RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE GIVEN THE LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER COORDINATION LATER TODAY WITH
PARTNER AGENCIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  58  81  56 /  10  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  65  83  63 /  10  10   0   0
MIAMI            84  63  83  62 /  10  10   0   0
NAPLES           81  63  79  62 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....22/KS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 051148 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
748 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS OF 15 KTS GUSTS UP
TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT AROUND 20 KTS GUST TO 30 KNOTS FOR KAPF TAF
SITE. THE WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS FROM THE WEST
THIS EVENING BEFORE SWINGING BACK TO A NORTHWEST DIRECTION LATE
TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE
NORTH. THIS FRONT WILL BE A DRY FRONT AS IT COMES THROUGH THE
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN DRY OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA TAF SITES ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND
VIS.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016/

SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT THAT LED TO A RAINY WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW QUIET WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS DEEPENING WITH TIME
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING TODAY EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND DEEP MIXING TO
BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND A
DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE 50S
INTERIOR SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MIGHT BE THE LAST TIME WE SEE
READINGS THAT COOL FOR AWHILE.

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING VERY PLEASANT WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD A BIT, WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR GRADUAL RETURN
OF MOISTURE ON EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT HAS LED TO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR 7 FEET ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WAS EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX JUST ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING UNDER SUNNY
SKIES TODAY SHOULD PROMOTE DEEP MIXING, BRINGING SUSTAINED WINDS
UP TO NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY INTERIOR AREAS. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION
WILL PREVAIL TODAY, HOWEVER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S AND ERC VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO BE APPROACHED TODAY.

CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT ON REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE BORDERLINE, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. HOWEVER
SOME DRYING OF FUELS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA DID NOT PICK UP A LOT OF RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE GIVEN THE LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER COORDINATION LATER TODAY WITH
PARTNER AGENCIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  58  81  56 /  10  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  65  83  63 /  10  10   0   0
MIAMI            86  63  83  62 /  10  10  10   0
NAPLES           81  63  79  62 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....22/KS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 050841
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
441 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT THAT LED TO A RAINY WEDNESDAY WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY
BUILDING OVER THE AREA FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS
WILL ALLOW QUIET WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOW NORTHWEST WINDS DEEPENING WITH TIME
BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING TODAY EXPECT SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS TO DEVELOP AND DEEP MIXING TO
BRING DOWN SOME GUSTY WINDS, PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST SECTIONS.

A REINFORCING FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. A FEW VERY
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA, BUT MEASURABLE RAIN CHANCES ARE TOO LOW AT ANY GIVEN
LOCATION TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND A
DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL WELL INTO THE 50S
INTERIOR SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MIGHT BE THE LAST TIME WE SEE
READINGS THAT COOL FOR AWHILE.

THE CENTER OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD OVER
THE AREA THIS WEEKEND BRINGING VERY PLEASANT WEATHER AND LIGHT
WINDS.

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD A BIT, WHICH WILL OPEN THE DOOR FOR GRADUAL RETURN
OF MOISTURE ON EAST TO SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS AND A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN SHOWER CHANCES.

&&

.MARINE...
A MODERATELY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT HAS LED TO
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR 7 FEET ATLANTIC WATERS AND
THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WAS EXTENDED UNTIL NOON. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD
RELAX JUST ENOUGH TO BRING SEAS DOWN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND SEAS
OF 4 TO 6 FEET WILL CONTINUE. AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RELATIVELY COOL AIR ALOFT AND GOOD SURFACE HEATING UNDER SUNNY
SKIES TODAY SHOULD PROMOTE DEEP MIXING, BRINGING SUSTAINED WINDS
UP TO NEAR 15 MPH AND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON,
PARTICULARLY INTERIOR AREAS. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION
WILL PREVAIL TODAY, HOWEVER MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
STAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S AND ERC VALUES ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S, SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS DO NOT
APPEAR LIKELY TO BE APPROACHED TODAY.

CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED SOMEWHAT ON REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS
EITHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL RELAX AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY WILL BE BORDERLINE, GENERALLY IN THE MID 30S. HOWEVER
SOME DRYING OF FUELS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTH
FLORIDA DID NOT PICK UP A LOT OF RAIN OVER THE LAST WEEK. FOR NOW
WILL KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN PLACE GIVEN THE LINGERING
UNCERTAINTY AND ALLOW FOR FURTHER COORDINATION LATER TODAY WITH
PARTNER AGENCIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  61  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  66  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            85  63  84  63 /   0  10   0   0
NAPLES           83  64  78  62 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

22/KSCHARF





000
FXUS62 KMFL 050524
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
124 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.AVIATION...LAST BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING THROUGH FAR SOUTH
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY WILL BE COMPLETELY OVER THE WATERS BY 06Z.
WON`T RULE OUT A BRIEF -SHRA WITH ACTUAL FRONT AS IT TRAVERSES THE
REGION THROUGH 12Z, BUT OVERALL CONVECTION SHOULD END WITH THIS
BAND. GUSTY W-SW POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF PRECIP AHEAD OF FRONT.
PREVAILING VFR WITH LCL MVFR CIGS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND PRECIP.

COLD FRONT HAS ALREADY MADE IT THROUGH KAPF/KMKY WHERE WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED NW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS. WIND SHIFT WILL BE SLOWER TO
REACH EAST COAST SITES, WITH NW WIND SHIFT EXPECTED 08Z-11Z.
WINDS 12-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25KTS AFTER 14Z ACROSS REGION
BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  61  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  66  83  62 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            85  63  84  63 /   0  10   0   0
NAPLES           83  64  78  62 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 050058
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
858 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF TAMPA AND
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AT THIS TIME. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS S/W PIVOTING JUST
TO THE NORTH AND SHOULD BE DEPARTING REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THEREFORE, WE SHOULD START SEEING A MORE DEFINITE MOVEMENT
WITH THE FRONT OVER THE COMING HOURS SWEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA
PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE TREND
WITH THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY JUST AHEAD OF IT INDICATE THAT
SHOULD INDEED BE THE CASE. ALTHOUGH A BIT FASTER THAN ANALYZED,
THE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT
WITH THIS.

LATEST ADAS, LAPS, AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOW LITTLE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST OF IT CONFINED TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH.
THE SAME DIAGNOSTIC TOOLS SHOW HIGH VALUES OF SRH BUT THAT IS NOT
CONFIRMED BY THE 00Z SNDG SHOWING VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES CONSISTENT WITH AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO. YET LINE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE COLLIER WATERS AND WE SUSPECT ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MIAMI DADE HAVE BEEN PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH THIS
EVENING AND SOME HAVE SHOWN A BIT OF ROTATION AT TIMES. WE
SUSPECT THE REASON IS BECAUSE THAT IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITIES
ARE FOUND. ADDITIONALLY, 00Z SNDG SHOWS LAYER BETWEEN H8-H6
SHOWING A FAIRLY DECENT LAPSE RATE WITH DRY LAYER BELOW AND
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THAT LAYER. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
(EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND MOMENTUM MIXING) HAVE LIKELY HELPED
ENHANCED SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THESE KIND OF
WINDS. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE HAVE BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OBSERVED ROTATIONS.

ALL IN ALL THE THREAT FOR THE MAINLAND FROM SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
REMOTE/LOW AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT
SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS UNTIL ACTIVITY CLEARS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS AT THIS TIME
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS REMAIN ACROSS THE MAINLAND MONROE AND
MIAMI DADE WATERS WITH THE THREAT ABATING EARLIER ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS.

GRIDS ARE BEING UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS BUT IT WON`T
AFFECT FORECAST MUCH AS IT IS GENERALLY ON TARGET. WIND FORECAST
HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE THIS EVENING AND THAT IS THE ONE THAT WILL
LIKELY NEED THE CLOSEST REVISION PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WATERS.
WILL UPDATE HWO ACCORDINGLY ALSO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

AVIATION...
VCTS AND TEMPOS FOR -TSRA ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
02-03Z TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. EXPECT
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. AFTER 03Z THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. TAFS WILL KEEP
CARRYING VCTS THROUGH 06Z...THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

.SLIM CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...
.DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...
.INCREASING FIRE DANGER LATE WEEK...
.HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL BOATERS NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL FL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEING DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACCOMPANYING 110KT JET MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR, NSSL WRF, AND A COUPLE OF
LOCAL CONFIGURATIONS ALL INDICATE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING TOWARDS 00Z AND EXITING THE EAST COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY HAVE BEGAN
TO ABATE AND/OR MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.

MAIN QUESTION THAT REMAINS THEN IS WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER LEFT AT THIS POINT? ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES
BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGHEST
VALUES OF CAPE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
WORKED UP THE ATMOSPHERE. SRH VALUES ARE MARGINAL. IN FACT CURRENT
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND UNLESS A
C-BRZ DEVELOPS ALONG EAST COAST, THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. SPC KEEPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE TRUTH IS UNLESS EAST COAST C-BRZ DEVELOPS AND INSTABILITY
IMPROVES THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AT THE VERY LEAST THE MAIN CONCERN LEFT
MAY BE FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WITH ANY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOSTLY WITH LOCAL ADVISORIES
IF NEEDED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40-55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT
AGAIN THE THREAT OF THAT MATERIALIZING WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM THIS POINT ON.

THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...FRONT AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, THOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THURS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S FRI-SUN, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC COASTS. WARMER LOWS RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID-
UPPER 60S INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S EAST COAST.

MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND
SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET WILL PROMPT AT LEAST SCEC. ALONG THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMPT AN ADVISORY TONIGHT.

BEYOND THAT, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NW WINDS OF UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
EVEN WITH THE RAIN TODAY, THE WIND AND LOWERING RH TOMORROW WILL
QUICKLY WORK TO DRY FUELS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BY FRIDAY, THE
FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE THINKS THE FUELS WILL BE VOLATILE ENOUGH
WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT
RANGE, WITH WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH TO CREATE POSSIBLE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE WIND RELAXES MORE, THE RH
IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S PERCENT RANGE, KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SO, WILL CONTINUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE. ALSO,
THE DISPERSION ON FRIDAY IS ALREADY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 75 IN THE PART OF THE INTERIOR. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP WATCH ISSUED THIS MORNING AND
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  62  83  61  80 /  90   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  84  66  83 /  90   0   0   0
MIAMI            67  85  63  84 /  90   0  10   0
NAPLES           67  83  64  78 /  90  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/AR
LONG TERM....52/PS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 050058
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
858 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTH OF TAMPA AND
ACROSS CENTRAL FL AT THIS TIME. THIS IS A BIT SLOWER THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS S/W PIVOTING JUST
TO THE NORTH AND SHOULD BE DEPARTING REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. THEREFORE, WE SHOULD START SEEING A MORE DEFINITE MOVEMENT
WITH THE FRONT OVER THE COMING HOURS SWEEPING SOUTH FLORIDA
PARTICULARLY AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THE TREND
WITH THE SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY JUST AHEAD OF IT INDICATE THAT
SHOULD INDEED BE THE CASE. ALTHOUGH A BIT FASTER THAN ANALYZED,
THE CONSENSUS OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE IS ALSO CONSISTENT
WITH THIS.

LATEST ADAS, LAPS, AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOW LITTLE INSTABILITY
ACROSS THE REGION WITH MOST OF IT CONFINED TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH.
THE SAME DIAGNOSTIC TOOLS SHOW HIGH VALUES OF SRH BUT THAT IS NOT
CONFIRMED BY THE 00Z SNDG SHOWING VERY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
PROFILES CONSISTENT WITH AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO. YET LINE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE COLLIER WATERS AND WE SUSPECT ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF
MIAMI DADE HAVE BEEN PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH THIS
EVENING AND SOME HAVE SHOWN A BIT OF ROTATION AT TIMES. WE
SUSPECT THE REASON IS BECAUSE THAT IS WHERE THE BEST INSTABILITIES
ARE FOUND. ADDITIONALLY, 00Z SNDG SHOWS LAYER BETWEEN H8-H6
SHOWING A FAIRLY DECENT LAPSE RATE WITH DRY LAYER BELOW AND
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THAT LAYER. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS
(EVAPORATIONAL COOLING AND MOMENTUM MIXING) HAVE LIKELY HELPED
ENHANCED SOME OF THESE SHOWERS ENOUGH TO PRODUCE THESE KIND OF
WINDS. BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE HAVE BEEN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE OBSERVED ROTATIONS.

ALL IN ALL THE THREAT FOR THE MAINLAND FROM SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY
REMOTE/LOW AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOT TOTALLY RULING OUT
SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGEST SHOWERS UNTIL ACTIVITY CLEARS
THE REGION OVERNIGHT. BEST CHANCES FOR STRONG STORMS AT THIS TIME
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS REMAIN ACROSS THE MAINLAND MONROE AND
MIAMI DADE WATERS WITH THE THREAT ABATING EARLIER ACROSS THE GULF
WATERS.

GRIDS ARE BEING UPDATED TO BETTER REFLECT TRENDS BUT IT WON`T
AFFECT FORECAST MUCH AS IT IS GENERALLY ON TARGET. WIND FORECAST
HAS BEEN A CHALLENGE THIS EVENING AND THAT IS THE ONE THAT WILL
LIKELY NEED THE CLOSEST REVISION PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE WATERS.
WILL UPDATE HWO ACCORDINGLY ALSO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

AVIATION...
VCTS AND TEMPOS FOR -TSRA ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
02-03Z TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. EXPECT
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. AFTER 03Z THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. TAFS WILL KEEP
CARRYING VCTS THROUGH 06Z...THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

.SLIM CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...
.DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...
.INCREASING FIRE DANGER LATE WEEK...
.HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL BOATERS NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL FL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEING DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACCOMPANYING 110KT JET MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR, NSSL WRF, AND A COUPLE OF
LOCAL CONFIGURATIONS ALL INDICATE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING TOWARDS 00Z AND EXITING THE EAST COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY HAVE BEGAN
TO ABATE AND/OR MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.

MAIN QUESTION THAT REMAINS THEN IS WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER LEFT AT THIS POINT? ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES
BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGHEST
VALUES OF CAPE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
WORKED UP THE ATMOSPHERE. SRH VALUES ARE MARGINAL. IN FACT CURRENT
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND UNLESS A
C-BRZ DEVELOPS ALONG EAST COAST, THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. SPC KEEPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE TRUTH IS UNLESS EAST COAST C-BRZ DEVELOPS AND INSTABILITY
IMPROVES THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AT THE VERY LEAST THE MAIN CONCERN LEFT
MAY BE FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WITH ANY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOSTLY WITH LOCAL ADVISORIES
IF NEEDED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40-55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT
AGAIN THE THREAT OF THAT MATERIALIZING WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM THIS POINT ON.

THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...FRONT AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, THOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THURS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S FRI-SUN, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC COASTS. WARMER LOWS RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID-
UPPER 60S INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S EAST COAST.

MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND
SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET WILL PROMPT AT LEAST SCEC. ALONG THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMPT AN ADVISORY TONIGHT.

BEYOND THAT, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NW WINDS OF UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
EVEN WITH THE RAIN TODAY, THE WIND AND LOWERING RH TOMORROW WILL
QUICKLY WORK TO DRY FUELS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BY FRIDAY, THE
FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE THINKS THE FUELS WILL BE VOLATILE ENOUGH
WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT
RANGE, WITH WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH TO CREATE POSSIBLE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE WIND RELAXES MORE, THE RH
IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S PERCENT RANGE, KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SO, WILL CONTINUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE. ALSO,
THE DISPERSION ON FRIDAY IS ALREADY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 75 IN THE PART OF THE INTERIOR. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP WATCH ISSUED THIS MORNING AND
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  62  83  61  80 /  90   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  84  66  83 /  90   0   0   0
MIAMI            67  85  63  84 /  90   0  10   0
NAPLES           67  83  64  78 /  90  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17/AR
LONG TERM....52/PS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 042355
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
VCTS AND TEMPOS FOR -TSRA ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
02-03Z TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. EXPECT
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. AFTER 03Z THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. TAFS WILL KEEP
CARRYING VCTS THROUGH 06Z...THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

..SLIM CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...
..DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...
..INCREASING FIRE DANGER LATE WEEK...
..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL BOATERS NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL FL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEING DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACCOMPANYING 110KT JET MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR, NSSL WRF, AND A COUPLE OF
LOCAL CONFIGURATIONS ALL INDICATE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING TOWARDS 00Z AND EXITING THE EAST COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY HAVE BEGAN
TO ABATE AND/OR MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.

MAIN QUESTION THAT REMAINS THEN IS WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER LEFT AT THIS POINT? ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES
BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGHEST
VALUES OF CAPE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
WORKED UP THE ATMOSPHERE. SRH VALUES ARE MARGINAL. IN FACT CURRENT
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND UNLESS A
C-BRZ DEVELOPS ALONG EAST COAST, THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. SPC KEEPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE TRUTH IS UNLESS EAST COAST C-BRZ DEVELOPS AND INSTABILITY
IMPROVES THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AT THE VERY LEAST THE MAIN CONCERN LEFT
MAY BE FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WITH ANY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOSTLY WITH LOCAL ADVISORIES
IF NEEDED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40-55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT
AGAIN THE THREAT OF THAT MATERIALIZING WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM THIS POINT ON.

THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...FRONT AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, THOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THURS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S FRI-SUN, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC COASTS. WARMER LOWS RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID-
UPPER 60S INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S EAST COAST.

MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND
SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET WILL PROMPT AT LEAST SCEC. ALONG THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMPT AN ADVISORY TONIGHT.

BEYOND THAT, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NW WINDS OF UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
EVEN WITH THE RAIN TODAY, THE WIND AND LOWERING RH TOMORROW WILL
QUICKLY WORK TO DRY FUELS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BY FRIDAY, THE
FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE THINKS THE FUELS WILL BE VOLATILE ENOUGH
WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT
RANGE, WITH WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH TO CREATE POSSIBLE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE WIND RELAXES MORE, THE RH
IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S PERCENT RANGE, KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SO, WILL CONTINUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE. ALSO,
THE DISPERSION ON FRIDAY IS ALREADY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 75 IN THE PART OF THE INTERIOR. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP WATCH ISSUED THIS MORNING AND
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  62  83  61  80 /  90   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  84  66  83 /  90   0   0   0
MIAMI            67  85  63  84 /  90   0  10   0
NAPLES           67  83  64  78 /  90  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...17/AR





000
FXUS62 KMFL 042355
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
VCTS AND TEMPOS FOR -TSRA ARE IN PLACE FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
02-03Z TONIGHT. THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA. EXPECT
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND MVFR CIGS AROUND 1500 FT WITH
THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. AFTER 03Z THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO START MOVING INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. TAFS WILL KEEP
CARRYING VCTS THROUGH 06Z...THEN CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME VFR IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

..SLIM CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...
..DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...
..INCREASING FIRE DANGER LATE WEEK...
..HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL BOATERS NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL FL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEING DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACCOMPANYING 110KT JET MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR, NSSL WRF, AND A COUPLE OF
LOCAL CONFIGURATIONS ALL INDICATE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING TOWARDS 00Z AND EXITING THE EAST COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY HAVE BEGAN
TO ABATE AND/OR MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.

MAIN QUESTION THAT REMAINS THEN IS WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER LEFT AT THIS POINT? ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES
BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGHEST
VALUES OF CAPE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
WORKED UP THE ATMOSPHERE. SRH VALUES ARE MARGINAL. IN FACT CURRENT
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND UNLESS A
C-BRZ DEVELOPS ALONG EAST COAST, THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. SPC KEEPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE TRUTH IS UNLESS EAST COAST C-BRZ DEVELOPS AND INSTABILITY
IMPROVES THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AT THE VERY LEAST THE MAIN CONCERN LEFT
MAY BE FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WITH ANY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOSTLY WITH LOCAL ADVISORIES
IF NEEDED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40-55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT
AGAIN THE THREAT OF THAT MATERIALIZING WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM THIS POINT ON.

THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...FRONT AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, THOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THURS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S FRI-SUN, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC COASTS. WARMER LOWS RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID-
UPPER 60S INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S EAST COAST.

MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND
SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET WILL PROMPT AT LEAST SCEC. ALONG THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMPT AN ADVISORY TONIGHT.

BEYOND THAT, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NW WINDS OF UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE WEEKEND.

FIRE WEATHER...
EVEN WITH THE RAIN TODAY, THE WIND AND LOWERING RH TOMORROW WILL
QUICKLY WORK TO DRY FUELS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BY FRIDAY, THE
FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE THINKS THE FUELS WILL BE VOLATILE ENOUGH
WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT
RANGE, WITH WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH TO CREATE POSSIBLE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE WIND RELAXES MORE, THE RH
IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S PERCENT RANGE, KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SO, WILL CONTINUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE. ALSO,
THE DISPERSION ON FRIDAY IS ALREADY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 75 IN THE PART OF THE INTERIOR. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP WATCH ISSUED THIS MORNING AND
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  62  83  61  80 /  90   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  84  66  83 /  90   0   0   0
MIAMI            67  85  63  84 /  90   0  10   0
NAPLES           67  83  64  78 /  90  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...17/AR





000
FXUS62 KMFL 042014
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
411 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SLIM CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...
...DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...
...INCREASING FIRE DANGER LATE WEEK...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL BOATERS NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL FL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEING DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACCOMPANYING 110KT JET MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR, NSSL WRF, AND A COUPLE OF
LOCAL CONFIGURATIONS ALL INDICATE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING TOWARDS 00Z AND EXITING THE EAST COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY HAVE BEGAN
TO ABATE AND/OR MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.

MAIN QUESTION THAT REMAINS THEN IS WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER LEFT AT THIS POINT? ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES
BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGHEST
VALUES OF CAPE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
WORKED UP THE ATMOSPHERE. SRH VALUES ARE MARGINAL. IN FACT CURRENT
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND UNLESS A
C-BRZ DEVELOPS ALONG EAST COAST, THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. SPC KEEPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE TRUTH IS UNLESS EAST COAST C-BRZ DEVELOPS AND INSTABILITY
IMPROVES THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AT THE VERY LEAST THE MAIN CONCERN LEFT
MAY BE FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WITH ANY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOSTLY WITH LOCAL ADVISORIES
IF NEEDED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40-55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT
AGAIN THE THREAT OF THAT MATERIALIZING WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM THIS POINT ON.

THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...FRONT AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, THOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THURS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S FRI-SUN, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC COASTS. WARMER LOWS RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID-
UPPER 60S INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S EAST COAST.


&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND
SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET WILL PROMPT AT LEAST SCEC. ALONG THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMPT AN ADVISORY TONIGHT.

BEYOND THAT, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NW WINDS OF UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EVEN WITH THE RAIN TODAY, THE WIND AND LOWERING RH TOMORROW WILL
QUICKLY WORK TO DRY FUELS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BY FRIDAY, THE
FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE THINKS THE FUELS WILL BE VOLATILE ENOUGH
WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT
RANGE, WITH WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH TO CREATE POSSIBLE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE WIND RELAXES MORE, THE RH
IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S PERCENT RANGE, KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SO, WILL CONTINUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE. ALSO,
THE DISPERSION ON FRIDAY IS ALREADY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 75 IN THE PART OF THE INTERIOR. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP WATCH ISSUED THIS MORNING AND
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  62  83  61  80 /  80   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  84  66  83 /  80   0   0   0
MIAMI            67  85  63  84 /  80   0  10   0
NAPLES           67  83  64  78 /  70  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....52/PS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 042014
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
411 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SLIM CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...
...DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...
...INCREASING FIRE DANGER LATE WEEK...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL BOATERS NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL FL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEING DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACCOMPANYING 110KT JET MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR, NSSL WRF, AND A COUPLE OF
LOCAL CONFIGURATIONS ALL INDICATE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING TOWARDS 00Z AND EXITING THE EAST COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY HAVE BEGAN
TO ABATE AND/OR MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.

MAIN QUESTION THAT REMAINS THEN IS WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER LEFT AT THIS POINT? ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES
BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGHEST
VALUES OF CAPE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
WORKED UP THE ATMOSPHERE. SRH VALUES ARE MARGINAL. IN FACT CURRENT
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND UNLESS A
C-BRZ DEVELOPS ALONG EAST COAST, THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. SPC KEEPS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA IN A
MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE TRUTH IS UNLESS EAST COAST C-BRZ DEVELOPS AND INSTABILITY
IMPROVES THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AT THE VERY LEAST THE MAIN CONCERN LEFT
MAY BE FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG STORMS WITH ANY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO HANDLE MOSTLY WITH LOCAL ADVISORIES
IF NEEDED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40-55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT
AGAIN THE THREAT OF THAT MATERIALIZING WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM THIS POINT ON.

THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...FRONT AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, THOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THURS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S FRI-SUN, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC COASTS. WARMER LOWS RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID-
UPPER 60S INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S EAST COAST.


&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND
SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET WILL PROMPT AT LEAST SCEC. ALONG THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMPT AN ADVISORY TONIGHT.

BEYOND THAT, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NW WINDS OF UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EVEN WITH THE RAIN TODAY, THE WIND AND LOWERING RH TOMORROW WILL
QUICKLY WORK TO DRY FUELS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BY FRIDAY, THE
FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE THINKS THE FUELS WILL BE VOLATILE ENOUGH
WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT
RANGE, WITH WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH TO CREATE POSSIBLE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE WIND RELAXES MORE, THE RH
IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S PERCENT RANGE, KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SO, WILL CONTINUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE. ALSO,
THE DISPERSION ON FRIDAY IS ALREADY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 75 IN THE PART OF THE INTERIOR. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP WATCH ISSUED THIS MORNING AND
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  62  83  61  80 /  80   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  84  66  83 /  80   0   0   0
MIAMI            67  85  63  84 /  80   0  10   0
NAPLES           67  83  64  78 /  70  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....52/PS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 042011
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
411 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SLIM CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...
...DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...
...INCREASING FIRE DANGER LATE WEEK...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL BOATERS NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL FL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEING DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACCOMPANYING 110KT JET MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR, NSSL WRF, AND A COUPLE OF
LOCAL CONFIGURATIONS ALL INDICATE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING TOWARDS 00Z AND EXITING THE EAST COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY HAVE BEGAN
TO ABATE AND/OR MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.

MAIN QUESTION THAT REMAINS THEN IS WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER LEFT AT THIS POINT? ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES
BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGHEST
VALUES OF CAPE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
WORKED UP THE ATMOSPHERE. SRH VALUES ARE MARGINAL. IN FACT CURRENT
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND UNLESS A
C-BRZ DEVELOPS ALONG EAST COAST, THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. SPC KEEPS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TRUTH IS UNLESS EAST
COAST C-BRZ DEVELOPS AND INSTABILITY IMPROVES THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AT
THE VERY LEAST THE MAIN CONCERN LEFT MAY BE FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
STORMS WITH ANY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE
TO HANDLE MOSTLY WITH LOCAL ADVISORIES IF NEEDED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40-55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT
AGAIN THE THREAT OF THAT MATERIALIZING WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM THIS POINT ON.

THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...FRONT AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, THOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THURS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S FRI-SUN, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC COASTS. WARMER LOWS RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID-
UPPER 60S INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S EAST COAST.


&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND
SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET WILL PROMPT AT LEAST SCEC. ALONG THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMPT AN ADVISORY TONIGHT.

BEYOND THAT, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NW WINDS OF UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EVEN WITH THE RAIN TODAY, THE WIND AND LOWERING RH TOMORROW WILL
QUICKLY WORK TO DRY FUELS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BY FRIDAY, THE
FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE THINKS THE FUELS WILL BE VOLATILE ENOUGH
WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT
RANGE, WITH WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH TO CREATE POSSIBLE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE WIND RELAXES MORE, THE RH
IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S PERCENT RANGE, KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SO, WILL CONTINUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE. ALSO,
THE DISPERSION ON FRIDAY IS ALREADY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 75 IN THE PART OF THE INTERIOR. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP WATCH ISSUED THIS MORNING AND
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  62  83  61  80 /  80   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  84  66  83 /  80   0   0   0
MIAMI            67  85  63  84 /  80   0  10   0
NAPLES           67  83  64  78 /  70  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....52/PS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 042011
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
411 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SLIM CHANCE OF A FEW STRONG STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING...
...DRY AND PLEASANT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND...
...INCREASING FIRE DANGER LATE WEEK...
...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS FOR SMALL BOATERS NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...

.DISCUSSION...
REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT APPROACHING CENTRAL FL
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEING DRIVEN BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
SWINGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF AND ACCOMPANYING 110KT JET MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. GLOBAL MODELS AND ENSEMBLE OF HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR, NSSL WRF, AND A COUPLE OF
LOCAL CONFIGURATIONS ALL INDICATE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING CWA EARLY
THIS EVENING TOWARDS 00Z AND EXITING THE EAST COAST SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY HAVE BEGAN
TO ABATE AND/OR MOVE OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION BEFORE
CONDITIONS BEGIN TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT.

MAIN QUESTION THAT REMAINS THEN IS WHAT IS THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE
WEATHER LEFT AT THIS POINT? ANALYSIS OF WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES
BEST UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINS JUST TO OUR SOUTH WITH HIGHEST
VALUES OF CAPE EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA AS EARLIER CONVECTION HAS
WORKED UP THE ATMOSPHERE. SRH VALUES ARE MARGINAL. IN FACT CURRENT
AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND UNLESS A
C-BRZ DEVELOPS ALONG EAST COAST, THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO
SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. SPC KEEPS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TRUTH IS UNLESS EAST
COAST C-BRZ DEVELOPS AND INSTABILITY IMPROVES THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER WILL REMAIN RATHER LIMITED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AT
THE VERY LEAST THE MAIN CONCERN LEFT MAY BE FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG
STORMS WITH ANY ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE
TO HANDLE MOSTLY WITH LOCAL ADVISORIES IF NEEDED.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 40-55 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
REMAIN THE MAIN THREATS ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY BE INTO THE EARLY EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BUT
AGAIN THE THREAT OF THAT MATERIALIZING WILL GRADUALLY CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH FROM THIS POINT ON.

THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...FRONT AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, THOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THURS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S FRI-SUN, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AND LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF
AND ATLANTIC COASTS. WARMER LOWS RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID-
UPPER 60S INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S EAST COAST.


&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 15-20 KTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS AND
SEAS OF UP TO 6 FEET WILL PROMPT AT LEAST SCEC. ALONG THE ATLANTIC
WATERS, STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PROMPT AN ADVISORY TONIGHT.

BEYOND THAT, THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF NW WINDS OF UP TO 15 TO 20
KTS ACROSS THE GULF AND ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EVEN WITH THE RAIN TODAY, THE WIND AND LOWERING RH TOMORROW WILL
QUICKLY WORK TO DRY FUELS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BY FRIDAY, THE
FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE THINKS THE FUELS WILL BE VOLATILE ENOUGH
WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 30 PERCENT
RANGE, WITH WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH TO CREATE POSSIBLE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE WIND RELAXES MORE, THE RH
IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE UPPER 20S PERCENT RANGE, KEEPING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SO, WILL CONTINUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA, IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE. ALSO,
THE DISPERSION ON FRIDAY IS ALREADY FORECAST IN THE UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 75 IN THE PART OF THE INTERIOR. THE CONFIDENCE ON THIS IS NOT
HIGH AT THIS TIME BUT WILL KEEP WATCH ISSUED THIS MORNING AND
MONITOR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  62  83  61  80 /  80   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  84  66  83 /  80   0   0   0
MIAMI            67  85  63  84 /  80   0  10   0
NAPLES           67  83  64  78 /  70  10  20   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....52/PS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 041743
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
143 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA TERMINALS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, HOWEVER IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WHEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR
WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 950 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

..SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...
..FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALL AREAS...

UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
TODAY DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORT WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE 500 MB TEMPERATURE ALOFT IN THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM MIA WAS
ALSO AROUND -10C. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALONG WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 50
KNOTS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
THEREFORE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS SHOULD BE GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. SPC HAS ALSO PUT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY. SO HAVE ADDED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WORDING TO THE ZONES FOR TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. VCSH WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT A TEMPO GROUP DUE TO TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE VIS AND CEILING WILL REMAIN IN VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SHOULD
FALL DOWN INTO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER...
EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN TODAY, THE WIND AND LOWERING RH
TOMORROW WILL QUICKLY WORK TO DRY FUELS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BY
FRIDAY, THE FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE FEELS THE FUELS WILL BE
VOLATILE ENOUGH WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE, WITH WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH TO CREATE
POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE WIND
RELAXES MORE, THE RH IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE MID 20 PERCENT
RANGE, KEEPING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SO,
HAVE HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA, IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE.
ALSO, THE DISPERSION ON FRIDAY IS ALREADY FORECAST IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 75 IN THE PART OF THE INTERIOR.

UPDATE...54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB
FIRE WEATHER...SI

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

.STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST
COAST...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BU THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS TX/LA AND ACCOMPANYING 110KT JET MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND WEST FL COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE GULF.

SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE EAST COAST METRO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, KEYING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP.

THERE ARE SEVERAL THINGS IN PLACE TO AID STORM DEVELOPMENT: THE
110KT UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW 30-40KTS, AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF
MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND LIMIT HEATING, BUT LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE TRENDED LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
STORMS PROVIDING MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMING. MORE HEATING ALSO
MAKES AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MORE LIKELY.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
MID TO LATE MORNING, SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND ROUND WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT. CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. HAIL IS ALSO A CONCERN IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL. WITH HIGHER PWATS IN PLACE, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN. IF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DOES
DEVELOP, ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS AS STORMS
APPROACH THE COAST.

THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...FRONT AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, THOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THURS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S FRI-SUN, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
NORMAL INTO MONDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS. WARMER LOWS RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID-UPPER
60S INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S EAST COAST.

MARINE...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY 15-20KTS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT`S EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF 20KT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EMPHASIZE MORE 15-20KT THAN
SOLID 20KTS SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN SCA. HOWEVER, A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE WIND FORECAST COULD RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR EITHER
THE GULF OR ATLANTIC.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS THE REST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20KTS OVER THE ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT-
FRI MORNING BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BUILDS
ACROSS THE STATE, BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SEAS 2-3FT MOST OF TODAY, BUILDING TO 4-6FT OVERNIGHT WITH THE
POST- FRONTAL WINDS. HIGHER SEAS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY. SEAS DIMINISHING TO 2-3FT BY LATE SATURDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL AND TRANSPORT WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LEADING TO
EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
STORMS THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE ANY RAPID FIRE SPREAD
CONCERNS.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WORKS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY, WITH STRONGER
TRANSPORT WINDS KEEPING DISPERSIONS IN THE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
RANGE. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  67  85  62  80 /  70  10   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  68  86  66  81 /  80  10   0   0
MIAMI            66  86  65  82 /  80  10   0   0
NAPLES           68  81  63  78 /  50  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...52/PS
LONG TERM....52/PS
AVIATION...55/CWC





000
FXUS62 KMFL 041350 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
950 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALL AREAS...

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
TODAY DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORT WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE 500 MB TEMPERATURE ALOFT IN THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM MIA WAS
ALSO AROUND -10C. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALONG WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 50
KNOTS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
THEREFORE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS SHOULD BE GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. SPC HAS ALSO PUT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY. SO HAVE ADDED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WORDING TO THE ZONES FOR TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. VCSH WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT A TEMPO GROUP DUE TO TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE VIS AND CEILING WILL REMAIN IN VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SHOULD
FALL DOWN INTO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN TODAY, THE WIND AND LOWERING RH
TOMORROW WILL QUICKLY WORK TO DRY FUELS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BY
FRIDAY, THE FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE FEELS THE FUELS WILL BE
VOLATILE ENOUGH WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE, WITH WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH TO CREATE
POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE WIND
RELAXES MORE, THE RH IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE MID 20 PERCENT
RANGE, KEEPING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SO,
HAVE HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA, IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE.
ALSO, THE DISPERSION ON FRIDAY IS ALREADY FORECAST IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 75 IN THE PART OF THE INTERIOR.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB
FIRE WEATHER...SI


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

..STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST
COAST...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BU THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS TX/LA AND ACCOMPANYING 110KT JET MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND WEST FL COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE GULF.

SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE EAST COAST METRO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, KEYING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP.

THERE ARE SEVERAL THINGS IN PLACE TO AID STORM DEVELOPMENT: THE
110KT UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW 30-40KTS, AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF
MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND LIMIT HEATING, BUT LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE TRENDED LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
STORMS PROVIDING MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMING. MORE HEATING ALSO
MAKES AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MORE LIKELY.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
MID TO LATE MORNING, SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND ROUND WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT. CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. HAIL IS ALSO A CONCERN IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL. WITH HIGHER PWATS IN PLACE, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN. IF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DOES
DEVELOP, ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS AS STORMS
APPROACH THE COAST.

THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...FRONT AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, THOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THURS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S FRI-SUN, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
NORMAL INTO MONDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS. WARMER LOWS RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID-UPPER
60S INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S EAST COAST.

MARINE...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY 15-20KTS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT`S EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF 20KT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EMPHASIZE MORE 15-20KT THAN
SOLID 20KTS SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN SCA. HOWEVER, A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE WIND FORECAST COULD RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR EITHER
THE GULF OR ATLANTIC.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS THE REST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20KTS OVER THE ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT-
FRI MORNING BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BUILDS
ACROSS THE STATE, BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SEAS 2-3FT MOST OF TODAY, BUILDING TO 4-6FT OVERNIGHT WITH THE
POST- FRONTAL WINDS. HIGHER SEAS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY. SEAS DIMINISHING TO 2-3FT BY LATE SATURDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL AND TRANSPORT WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LEADING TO
EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
STORMS THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE ANY RAPID FIRE SPREAD
CONCERNS.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WORKS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY, WITH STRONGER
TRANSPORT WINDS KEEPING DISPERSIONS IN THE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
RANGE. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  67  85  62 / 100  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  68  86  66 /  90  80  10   0
MIAMI            86  66  86  65 /  90  80  10   0
NAPLES           81  68  81  63 / 100  50  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....88/ALM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 041350 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
950 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY...
...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALL AREAS...

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
TODAY DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE STEERING
FLOW TO BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA KEEPING THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE. AT THE SAME TIME...A SHORT WAVE OVER
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE MOVING EAST ACROSS SOUTH
FLORIDA. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL ALLOW FOR NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

THE 500 MB TEMPERATURE ALOFT IN THE MORNING SOUNDING FROM MIA WAS
ALSO AROUND -10C. THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY ALONG WITH A LOW TO MID LEVEL JET OF 30 TO 50
KNOTS WORKING ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE SHORT WAVE.
THEREFORE...SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS SHOULD BE GUSTY
WINDS...LARGE HAIL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. SPC HAS ALSO PUT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA IN A SLIGHT RISK
OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR TODAY. SO HAVE ADDED STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WORDING TO THE ZONES FOR TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST TODAY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING
BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AT ALL OF THE
TAF SITES. VCSH WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS BEFORE BECOMING VCTS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AT
THIS TIME WILL LEAVE OUT A TEMPO GROUP DUE TO TIMING OF THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE VIS AND CEILING WILL REMAIN IN VFR
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT SHOULD
FALL DOWN INTO IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
EVEN WITH THE EXPECTED RAIN TODAY, THE WIND AND LOWERING RH
TOMORROW WILL QUICKLY WORK TO DRY FUELS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. BY
FRIDAY, THE FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE FEELS THE FUELS WILL BE
VOLATILE ENOUGH WITH THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE, WITH WIND OF 10 TO 15 MPH TO CREATE
POSSIBLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. BY SATURDAY, EVEN THOUGH THE WIND
RELAXES MORE, THE RH IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE MID 20 PERCENT
RANGE, KEEPING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR A RED FLAG WARNING. SO,
HAVE HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR ALL
OF SOUTH FLORIDA, IN COORDINATION WITH THE FLORIDA FOREST SERVICE.
ALSO, THE DISPERSION ON FRIDAY IS ALREADY FORECAST IN THE UPPER
60S TO NEAR 75 IN THE PART OF THE INTERIOR.

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB
AVIATION...54/BNB
FIRE WEATHER...SI


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...

..STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST
COAST...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BU THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS TX/LA AND ACCOMPANYING 110KT JET MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND WEST FL COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE GULF.

SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE EAST COAST METRO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, KEYING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP.

THERE ARE SEVERAL THINGS IN PLACE TO AID STORM DEVELOPMENT: THE
110KT UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW 30-40KTS, AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF
MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND LIMIT HEATING, BUT LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE TRENDED LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
STORMS PROVIDING MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMING. MORE HEATING ALSO
MAKES AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MORE LIKELY.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
MID TO LATE MORNING, SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND ROUND WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT. CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. HAIL IS ALSO A CONCERN IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL. WITH HIGHER PWATS IN PLACE, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN. IF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DOES
DEVELOP, ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS AS STORMS
APPROACH THE COAST.

THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...FRONT AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, THOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THURS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S FRI-SUN, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
NORMAL INTO MONDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS. WARMER LOWS RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID-UPPER
60S INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S EAST COAST.

MARINE...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY 15-20KTS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT`S EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF 20KT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EMPHASIZE MORE 15-20KT THAN
SOLID 20KTS SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN SCA. HOWEVER, A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE WIND FORECAST COULD RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR EITHER
THE GULF OR ATLANTIC.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS THE REST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20KTS OVER THE ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT-
FRI MORNING BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BUILDS
ACROSS THE STATE, BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SEAS 2-3FT MOST OF TODAY, BUILDING TO 4-6FT OVERNIGHT WITH THE
POST- FRONTAL WINDS. HIGHER SEAS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY. SEAS DIMINISHING TO 2-3FT BY LATE SATURDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL AND TRANSPORT WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LEADING TO
EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
STORMS THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE ANY RAPID FIRE SPREAD
CONCERNS.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WORKS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY, WITH STRONGER
TRANSPORT WINDS KEEPING DISPERSIONS IN THE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
RANGE. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  67  85  62 / 100  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  68  86  66 /  90  80  10   0
MIAMI            86  66  86  65 /  90  80  10   0
NAPLES           81  68  81  63 / 100  50  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
     FOR FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....88/ALM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 040835
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
435 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...

...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST
COAST...

TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE FL PANHANDLE AND
BIG BEND REGION THIS MORNING BEING DRIVEN BU THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SWINGING ACROSS TX/LA AND ACCOMPANYING 110KT JET MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. CONVECTION IS INCREASING OVER THE
EASTERN GULF AND WEST FL COAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, ASSOCIATED
WITH A WEAKER UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION MOVING THROUGH THE GULF.

SPC HAS PLACED MOST OF THE EAST COAST METRO IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON, KEYING ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP.

THERE ARE SEVERAL THINGS IN PLACE TO AID STORM DEVELOPMENT: THE
110KT UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING
LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW 30-40KTS, AND THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE GULF
MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND LIMIT HEATING, BUT LATEST
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE TRENDED LATER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUDS AND
STORMS PROVIDING MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR WARMING. MORE HEATING ALSO
MAKES AN EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MORE LIKELY.

ACTIVITY LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
MID TO LATE MORNING, SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. A SECOND ROUND WILL PUSH THROUGH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT. CONVECTION WILL TAPER OFF FROM
NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE
THE MAIN THREATS. HAIL IS ALSO A CONCERN IN THE STRONGEST STORMS
AS MID LEVEL TEMPS COOL. WITH HIGHER PWATS IN PLACE, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN. IF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DOES
DEVELOP, ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTIONS AS STORMS
APPROACH THE COAST.

THURSDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK...FRONT AND PRECIP EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT OF
SOUTH FLORIDA BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AND UPPER LEVEL LOW SWINGS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED, THOUGH A
SECONDARY FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THURS EVENING MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS OVER THE WATERS. OTHERWISE DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S FRI-SUN, WITH TEMPS WARMING CLOSER TO
NORMAL INTO MONDAY AS EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW
60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS. WARMER LOWS RETURN BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MID-UPPER
60S INTERIOR/GULF COAST AND LOW 70S EAST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE
DAY 15-20KTS AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT`S EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT. WHILE THERE MIGHT BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF 20KT WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO EMPHASIZE MORE 15-20KT THAN
SOLID 20KTS SO WILL HOLD OFF ON AN SCA. HOWEVER, A SMALL INCREASE IN
THE WIND FORECAST COULD RESULT IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR EITHER
THE GULF OR ATLANTIC.

NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15KTS THE REST OF THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF 15-20KTS OVER THE ATLANTIC THURS NIGHT-
FRI MORNING BEHIND A SECONDARY FRONT. WINDS DIMINISH INTO THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BUILDS
ACROSS THE STATE, BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

SEAS 2-3FT MOST OF TODAY, BUILDING TO 4-6FT OVERNIGHT WITH THE
POST- FRONTAL WINDS. HIGHER SEAS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH
FRIDAY. SEAS DIMINISHING TO 2-3FT BY LATE SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY WEST-SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL AND TRANSPORT WINDS
EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY, LEADING TO
EXCELLENT DISPERSIONS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
STORMS THROUGH THE DAY SHOULD HELP MITIGATE ANY RAPID FIRE SPREAD
CONCERNS.

BEHIND THE FRONT, A CONSIDERABLY DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS
WORKS INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
DROP TO OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR JUST ABOUT ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA
FOR SEVERAL HOURS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. GUSTY POST-FRONTAL
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS MAY BE A CONCERN ON THURSDAY, WITH STRONGER
TRANSPORT WINDS KEEPING DISPERSIONS IN THE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
RANGE. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  67  85  62 / 100  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  68  86  66 /  90  80  10   0
MIAMI            86  66  86  65 /  90  80  10   0
NAPLES           81  68  81  63 / 100  50  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

ALM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 040558
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
158 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING AT ALL
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, GROUND FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO
MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS AT INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AROUND
SUNRISE, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE KEYS AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST COAST TERMINALS
WILL BE AFTER 16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  64  85  60 /  80  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  68  87  65 /  80  70  10   0
MIAMI            88  67  85  65 /  80  70  10   0
NAPLES           85  68  83  63 /  80  60  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22/KS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 040558
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
158 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PREVAILING AT ALL
TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CONSIDERABLE
GROUND AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, GROUND FOG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO
MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS AT INLAND TERMINALS BEFORE SUNRISE. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AROUND
SUNRISE, WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO
DEVELOP OVER THE KEYS AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE
MORNING. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EAST COAST TERMINALS
WILL BE AFTER 16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  64  85  60 /  80  70  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  88  68  87  65 /  80  70  10   0
MIAMI            88  67  85  65 /  80  70  10   0
NAPLES           85  68  83  63 /  80  60  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...22/KS





000
FXUS62 KMFL 040020
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
820 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...

MADE AN UPDATE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST TO REFLECT THE CHANGES
IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN THIS EVENING. EARLIER THE CONVECTION WAS
MOST ACTIVE ACROSS MIAMI DADE COUNTY AND ADJACENT WATERS. SINCE
THAT ACTIVITY HAS WANED THE ACTIVE AREA IS NOW ACROSS EASTERN
PALM BEACH COUNTY AND THE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST AND THE FORECAST
WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA.

60




&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 759 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

AVIATION...

THE ACTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE
BISCAYNE BAY AREA HAS DISSIPATED WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINAL KPBI. TERMINAL KPBI COULD
HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR OR VERY SHORT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VERY ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS FORECAST THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY REGIONAL WINDS. THE CURRENT TAF`S HAVE A PRO30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME AND VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

THE INGREDIENTS FOR A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION WITH THE CURRENT PWAT AROUND 1.6 BEING ABOUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT ABOVE NORMALS FOR THIS DATE. IN ADDITION LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL 200 HPA JET WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND COULD EXCEED
100 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS
WILL FAVOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA. ALL
THESE CONDITIONS COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IMPACTS MAINLY EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WINDS TO
NEAR 60 MPH POSSIBLE...SMALL HAIL AND A FEW FUNNEL
CLOUDS/WATERSPOUTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA
WITH A SOMWHAT FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IN PLACE.

FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT AND COULD ENTER NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND
JUST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. DEEP
REGIONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PWAT`S AROUND 1.9 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND DECREASING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
STRONG STORMS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FORECAST UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY WIND PROFILE WOULD
FAVOR GUSTY WIND AS A THREAT AND HAIL COULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. THE GENERAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY AND
CLEARING THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND STABLE
WEATHER IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALSO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. GENERALLY BOTH GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS COULD INCREASE TO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. BUT NEED TO EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST WIND GUIDANCE. A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WIND FORECAST
COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS EITHER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OR GULF
WATERS OR BOTH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE. BUT FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE TRENDS TO SEE WHEN OR EVEN IF
HAZARDOUS SEAS OR ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY FOR THE
PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA BEING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT AND COULD ENTER
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND 8 AM WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE CONDITIONS PLUS DEEP MOISTURE
ENTERING THE REGION WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO START EXITING THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING TREND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A COOLER AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION.
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
A FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  64  85 /  60  80  70  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  88  68  87 /  20  80  70  10
MIAMI            74  88  67  85 /  20  80  70  10
NAPLES           77  85  68  83 /  30  80  60  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....





000
FXUS62 KMFL 032359
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
759 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...

THE ACTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE
BISCAYNE BAY AREA HAS DISSIPATED WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINAL KPBI. TERMINAL KPBI COULD
HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR OR VERY SHORT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VERY ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS FORECAST THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY REGIONAL WINDS. THE CURRENT TAF`S HAVE A PRO30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME AND VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

THE INGREDIENTS FOR A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION WITH THE CURRENT PWAT AROUND 1.6 BEING ABOUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT ABOVE NORMALS FOR THIS DATE. IN ADDITION LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL 200 HPA JET WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND COULD EXCEED
100 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS
WILL FAVOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA. ALL
THESE CONDITIONS COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IMPACTS MAINLY EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WINDS TO
NEAR 60 MPH POSSIBLE...SMALL HAIL AND A FEW FUNNEL
CLOUDS/WATERSPOUTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA
WITH A SOMWHAT FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IN PLACE.

FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT AND COULD ENTER NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND
JUST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. DEEP
REGIONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PWAT`S AROUND 1.9 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND DECREASING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
STRONG STORMS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FORECAST UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY WIND PROFILE WOULD
FAVOR GUSTY WIND AS A THREAT AND HAIL COULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. THE GENERAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY AND
CLEARING THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND STABLE
WEATHER IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALSO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. GENERALLY BOTH GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS COULD INCREASE TO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. BUT NEED TO EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST WIND GUIDANCE. A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WIND FORECAST
COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS EITHER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OR GULF
WATERS OR BOTH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE. BUT FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE TRENDS TO SEE WHEN OR EVEN IF
HAZARDOUS SEAS OR ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY FOR THE
PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA BEING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT AND COULD ENTER
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND 8 AM WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE CONDITIONS PLUS DEEP MOISTURE
ENTERING THE REGION WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO START EXITING THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING TREND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A COOLER AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION.
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
A FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  64  85 /  40  80  70  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  88  68  87 /  40  80  70  10
MIAMI            74  88  67  85 /  40  80  70  10
NAPLES           77  85  68  83 /  30  80  60  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 032359
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
759 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...

THE ACTIVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE
BISCAYNE BAY AREA HAS DISSIPATED WITH LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINAL KPBI. TERMINAL KPBI COULD
HAVE PERIODS OF MVFR OR VERY SHORT PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WITH
THE PASSAGE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING. A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INTO
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. VERY ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS FORECAST THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH LIGHT
SOUTHWESTERLY REGIONAL WINDS. THE CURRENT TAF`S HAVE A PRO30 FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 12-15Z TIME FRAME AND VERY ACTIVE CONVECTION
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

THE INGREDIENTS FOR A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION WITH THE CURRENT PWAT AROUND 1.6 BEING ABOUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT ABOVE NORMALS FOR THIS DATE. IN ADDITION LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL 200 HPA JET WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND COULD EXCEED
100 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS
WILL FAVOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA. ALL
THESE CONDITIONS COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IMPACTS MAINLY EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WINDS TO
NEAR 60 MPH POSSIBLE...SMALL HAIL AND A FEW FUNNEL
CLOUDS/WATERSPOUTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA
WITH A SOMWHAT FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IN PLACE.

FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT AND COULD ENTER NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND
JUST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. DEEP
REGIONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PWAT`S AROUND 1.9 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND DECREASING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
STRONG STORMS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FORECAST UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY WIND PROFILE WOULD
FAVOR GUSTY WIND AS A THREAT AND HAIL COULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. THE GENERAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY AND
CLEARING THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND STABLE
WEATHER IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALSO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.

MARINE...

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. GENERALLY BOTH GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS COULD INCREASE TO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. BUT NEED TO EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST WIND GUIDANCE. A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WIND FORECAST
COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS EITHER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OR GULF
WATERS OR BOTH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE. BUT FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE TRENDS TO SEE WHEN OR EVEN IF
HAZARDOUS SEAS OR ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY FOR THE
PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA BEING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT AND COULD ENTER
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND 8 AM WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE CONDITIONS PLUS DEEP MOISTURE
ENTERING THE REGION WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO START EXITING THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING TREND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A COOLER AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION.
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
A FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  64  85 /  40  80  70  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  88  68  87 /  40  80  70  10
MIAMI            74  88  67  85 /  40  80  70  10
NAPLES           77  85  68  83 /  30  80  60  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM....
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 032058
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
458 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THE INGREDIENTS FOR A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION WITH THE CURRENT PWAT AROUND 1.6 BEING ABOUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT ABOVE NORMALS FOR THIS DATE. IN ADDITION LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL 200 HPA JET WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND COULD EXCEED
100 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS
WILL FAVOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA. ALL
THESE CONDITIONS COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IMPACTS MAINLY EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WINDS TO
NEAR 60 MPH POSSIBLE...SMALL HAIL AND A FEW FUNNEL
CLOUDS/WATERSPOUTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA
WITH A SOMWHAT FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IN PLACE.

FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT AND COULD ENTER NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND
JUST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. DEEP
REGIONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PWAT`S AROUND 1.9 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND DECREASING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
STRONG STORMS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FORECAST UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY WIND PROFILE WOULD
FAVOR GUSTY WIND AS A THREAT AND HAIL COULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. THE GENERAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY AND
CLEARING THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND STABLE
WEATHER IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALSO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. GENERALLY BOTH GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS COULD INCREASE TO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. BUT NEED TO EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST WIND GUIDANCE. A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WIND FORECAST
COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS EITHER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OR GULF
WATERS OR BOTH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE. BUT FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE TRENDS TO SEE WHEN OR EVEN IF
HAZARDOUS SEAS OR ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY FOR THE
PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA BEING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT AND COULD ENTER
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND 8 AM WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE CONDITIONS PLUS DEEP MOISTURE
ENTERING THE REGION WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO START EXITING THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING TREND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A COOLER AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION.
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
A FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  64  85 /  40  80  70  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  88  68  87 /  40  80  70  10
MIAMI            74  88  67  85 /  40  80  70  10
NAPLES           77  85  68  83 /  30  80  60  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 032058
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
458 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...

THE INGREDIENTS FOR A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS THE SOUTH
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE
REGION WITH THE CURRENT PWAT AROUND 1.6 BEING ABOUT 30 TO 40
PERCENT ABOVE NORMALS FOR THIS DATE. IN ADDITION LATEST
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE UPPER LEVEL 200 HPA JET WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND COULD EXCEED
100 KNOTS. THE SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY REGIONAL SURFACE WINDS
WILL FAVOR SURFACE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA. ALL
THESE CONDITIONS COULD FAVOR A FEW STRONG AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WITH IMPACTS MAINLY EXPECTED TO BE GUSTY WINDS TO
NEAR 60 MPH POSSIBLE...SMALL HAIL AND A FEW FUNNEL
CLOUDS/WATERSPOUTS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN PENINSULA
WITH A SOMWHAT FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILE IN PLACE.

FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT AND COULD ENTER NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND
JUST ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC COAST AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
DEEPEN INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. DEEP
REGIONAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST WITH PWAT`S AROUND 1.9 INCHES
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST
INCREASING INSTABILITY THROUGHOUT THE REGION AND DECREASING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL WINDS BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND
ADJACENT WATERS STARTING WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH
STRONG STORMS AND A FEW SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FORECAST UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY WIND PROFILE WOULD
FAVOR GUSTY WIND AS A THREAT AND HAIL COULD BE A SECONDARY
THREAT. THE GENERAL GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THURSDAY AND
CLEARING THE REGION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR LATE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO
THE WESTERN GULF FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND STABLE
WEATHER IS FORECAST FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND ALSO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CONSIDERING THE TIME OF YEAR...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL
BE IN PLACE FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...

WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS AROUND 00Z THURSDAY. GENERALLY BOTH GULF AND
ATLANTIC WATERS COULD INCREASE TO THE 4 TO 6 FOOT RANGE BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. BUT NEED TO EMPHASIZE THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST WIND GUIDANCE. A SMALL INCREASE IN THE WIND FORECAST
COULD RESULT IN HAZARDOUS SEAS EITHER ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OR GULF
WATERS OR BOTH WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES POSSIBLE. BUT FOR NOW
WILL HAVE TO MONITOR GUIDANCE TRENDS TO SEE WHEN OR EVEN IF
HAZARDOUS SEAS OR ADVISORIES MAY BE NECESSARY...MAINLY FOR THE
PERIOD OF WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING HOURS WITH THE MOST FAVORED AREA BEING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER NIGHT AND COULD ENTER
NORTHWEST FLORIDA AROUND 8 AM WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THESE CONDITIONS PLUS DEEP MOISTURE
ENTERING THE REGION WILL COMBINE TO RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA PENINSULA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO START EXITING THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A DRYING TREND BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
A COOLER AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION.
DRIER AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES NEAR OR BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR
A FEW HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  86  64  85 /  40  80  70  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  88  68  87 /  40  80  70  10
MIAMI            74  88  67  85 /  40  80  70  10
NAPLES           77  85  68  83 /  30  80  60  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 031749 AAC
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
149 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOP
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THEREFORE...VCTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MENTION FOR THE EAST COAST
TAF SITES THROUGH 00Z TONIGHT WITH VCSH FROM 01Z UNTIL 03Z. FOR
KAPF TAF SITE...VCSH WILL CONTINUE UNTIL 00Z THEN DRY AFTER 00Z.

THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AT MOST OF THE TAF
SITES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR KMIA WHERE THEY WILL BE
SOUTHEAST BECOMING SOUTHERLY DIRECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE WINDS OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES WILL
THEN REMAIN SOUTHWESTERLY TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS OF 5 KNOTS OR LESS.
KAPF TAF SITE WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE DECREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. THE CEILING AND VIS COULD FALL DOWN INTO
IFR CONDITIONS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
THE TIME COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN 3O MINUTES IN THE IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

..NEAR RECORD HIGHS INTERIOR/EAST COAST METRO AREAS TODAY...
..A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...

UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHICH IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WILL
ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BEING THE DOMINATE SEA BREEZE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THEREFORE THE BEST COVERAGE OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE TAPERING
DOWN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE 500 MB TEMP THIS MORNING WAS AROUND -8C AND THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE 500 MB TEMP COOLING DOWN TO -10 TO -11C AS
A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND HAIL.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE
THEY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND
FLOW. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
WHICH ARE:

CITIES     FORECAST HIGHS    RECORD HIGHS
MIA              91           91 - 1896
FLL              90           91 - 1964
PBI              90           91 - 1986

&&
UPDATE...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL BE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS UNTIL 15Z THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITE WITH GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS
TIME...WILL LEAVE ONLY VCSH FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
WITH VCTS AFTER 18Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITE. ONCE THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED...A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR BETTER TIMING.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE VIS AND CEILING SHOULD FALL
DOWN INTO IFR CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER
THE TAF SITES.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH
SOUTHWARD TODAY, DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND JET MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ITS RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ADVECT DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVING BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT, SHOWING A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS LATE MORNING WITH BETTER HEATING. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZES AROUND MIDDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STORM MOTION
FOCUSING CONVECTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE GULF MOVES ACROSS
OUR REGION AND 80-90KT UPPER LEVEL JET STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
PENINSULA. MOST NOTABLY, SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD
HEIGHTS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WEDNESDAY...ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH GULF AND FL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
DRIVING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY. WARM AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

DYNAMIC SETUP STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE 100-110KT UPPER LEVEL JET, MID LEVEL TEMPS
DROPPING TO -10 TO -11C, AND WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40KTS.

FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE MAIN FRONT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING TWO MORE DRY
REINFORCING FRONTS THROUGH FL THURS AND FRI, KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORE NETBALL, THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS.

TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING VEERING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE STATE. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH 15-20KTS AT TIMES, VEERING WESTERLY
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL
REGION. GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THURS AND FRI, VEERING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.

SEAS 1-3FT IN BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC TODAY, BUILDING TO 3-5FT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS. SIMILAR HEIGHTS LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6FT WITH
GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS. SEAS DIMINISHING TO 2-3FT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACH OF FRONT, AFFECTING ALL THE LOCAL
WATERS.

CLIMATE...

FORT LAUDERDALE SET A RECORD WARM LOW ON MAY 2ND OF 78F, BEATING
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 77 SET IN 2014.

WEST PALM BEACH ONLY DROPPED TO 77F ON MAY 2ND, TYING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WARM LOW OF 77 SET IN 2011.

HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TUESDAY MAY 3RD

RECORDYEAR
FORT LAUDERDALE           911964
MIAMI      911896
NAPLES  912002
WEST PALM BEACH  911986

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  73  88  66  83 /  40  70  50  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  89  69  84 /  30  60  60  10
MIAMI            74  86  67  86 /  30  60  60  10
NAPLES           75  85  69  83 /  20  70  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 031338 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS INTERIOR/EAST COAST METRO AREAS TODAY...
...A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS EASTERN AREAS TODAY...

.UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
EXTENDING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA WHICH IN
TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO BE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES WILL
ALSO DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BEING THE DOMINATE SEA BREEZE PUSHING ACROSS THE AREA...WHILE THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THEREFORE THE BEST COVERAGE OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OVER
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT COVERAGE TAPERING
DOWN TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT COVERAGE OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

THE 500 MB TEMP THIS MORNING WAS AROUND -8C AND THE SHORT RANGE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE 500 MB TEMP COOLING DOWN TO -10 TO -11C AS
A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW STRONG TO EVEN SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND HAIL.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM UP INTO THE LOWER 90S OVER MOST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, EXCEPT FOR THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS WHERE
THEY WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO THE WESTERLY WIND
FLOW. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR THE RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY
WHICH ARE:

CITIES     FORECAST HIGHS    RECORD HIGHS
MIA              91           91 - 1896
FLL              90           91 - 1964
PBI              90           91 - 1986


&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 726 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

AVIATION...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL BE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS UNTIL 15Z THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITE WITH GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS
TIME...WILL LEAVE ONLY VCSH FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
WITH VCTS AFTER 18Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITE. ONCE THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED...A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR BETTER TIMING.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE VIS AND CEILING SHOULD FALL
DOWN INTO IFR CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER
THE TAF SITES.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

.POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH
SOUTHWARD TODAY, DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND JET MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ITS RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ADVECT DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVING BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT, SHOWING A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS LATE MORNING WITH BETTER HEATING. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZES AROUND MIDDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STORM MOTION
FOCUSING CONVECTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE GULF MOVES ACROSS
OUR REGION AND 80-90KT UPPER LEVEL JET STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
PENINSULA. MOST NOTABLY, SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD
HEIGHTS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WEDNESDAY...ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH GULF AND FL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
DRIVING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY. WARM AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

DYNAMIC SETUP STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE 100-110KT UPPER LEVEL JET, MID LEVEL TEMPS
DROPPING TO -10 TO -11C, AND WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40KTS.

FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE MAIN FRONT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING TWO MORE DRY
REINFORCING FRONTS THROUGH FL THURS AND FRI, KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORE NETBALL, THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS.

TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING VEERING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE STATE. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH 15-20KTS AT TIMES, VEERING WESTERLY
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL
REGION. GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THURS AND FRI, VEERING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.

SEAS 1-3FT IN BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC TODAY, BUILDING TO 3-5FT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS. SIMILAR HEIGHTS LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6FT WITH
GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS. SEAS DIMINISHING TO 2-3FT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACH OF FRONT, AFFECTING ALL THE LOCAL
WATERS.

CLIMATE...

FORT LAUDERDALE SET A RECORD WARM LOW ON MAY 2ND OF 78F, BEATING
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 77 SET IN 2014.

WEST PALM BEACH ONLY DROPPED TO 77F ON MAY 2ND, TYING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WARM LOW OF 77 SET IN 2011.

HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TUESDAY MAY 3RD

RECORDYEAR
FORT LAUDERDALE           911964
MIAMI      911896
NAPLES  912002
WEST PALM BEACH  911986

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  90  73  88  66 /  60  40  70  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  90  75  89  69 /  50  30  60  60
MIAMI            91  74  86  67 /  50  30  60  60
NAPLES           88  75  85  69 /  20  20  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....88/ALM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 031126 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
726 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL BE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS UNTIL 15Z THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITE WITH GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS
TIME...WILL LEAVE ONLY VCSH FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
WITH VCTS AFTER 18Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITE. ONCE THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED...A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR BETTER TIMING.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE VIS AND CEILING SHOULD FALL
DOWN INTO IFR CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER
THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

..POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH
SOUTHWARD TODAY, DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND JET MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ITS RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ADVECT DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVING BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT, SHOWING A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS LATE MORNING WITH BETTER HEATING. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZES AROUND MIDDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STORM MOTION
FOCUSING CONVECTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE GULF MOVES ACROSS
OUR REGION AND 80-90KT UPPER LEVEL JET STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
PENINSULA. MOST NOTABLY, SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD
HEIGHTS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WEDNESDAY...ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH GULF AND FL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
DRIVING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY. WARM AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

DYNAMIC SETUP STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE 100-110KT UPPER LEVEL JET, MID LEVEL TEMPS
DROPPING TO -10 TO -11C, AND WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40KTS.

FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE MAIN FRONT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING TWO MORE DRY
REINFORCING FRONTS THROUGH FL THURS AND FRI, KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORE NETBALL, THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS.

TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING VEERING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE STATE. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH 15-20KTS AT TIMES, VEERING WESTERLY
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL
REGION. GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THURS AND FRI, VEERING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.

SEAS 1-3FT IN BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC TODAY, BUILDING TO 3-5FT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS. SIMILAR HEIGHTS LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6FT WITH
GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS. SEAS DIMINISHING TO 2-3FT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACH OF FRONT, AFFECTING ALL THE LOCAL
WATERS.

CLIMATE...

FORT LAUDERDALE SET A RECORD WARM LOW ON MAY 2ND OF 78F, BEATING
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 77 SET IN 2014.

WEST PALM BEACH ONLY DROPPED TO 77F ON MAY 2ND, TYING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WARM LOW OF 77 SET IN 2011.

HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TUESDAY MAY 3RD

RECORDYEAR
FORT LAUDERDALE           911964
MIAMI      911896
NAPLES  912002
WEST PALM BEACH  911986

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  73  88  66 /  60  40  70  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  89  69 /  50  30  60  60
MIAMI            90  74  86  67 /  50  30  60  60
NAPLES           88  75  85  69 /  20  20  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 031126 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
726 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS TODAY WILL BE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING SOUTHERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES. THE WINDS AT KAPF TAF SITE WILL BE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 5 KNOTS UNTIL 15Z THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
KNOTS.

THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AFFECTING THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 18Z FOR THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES. A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG
LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE EAST COAST TAF SITE WITH GUSTY
WINDS, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL. AT THIS
TIME...WILL LEAVE ONLY VCSH FOR ALL OF THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING
WITH VCTS AFTER 18Z FOR THE EAST COAST TAF SITE. ONCE THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED...A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED TO THE
EAST COAST TAF SITES FOR BETTER TIMING.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE VIS AND CEILING SHOULD FALL
DOWN INTO IFR CONDITIONS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER
THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 435 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016/

DISCUSSION...

..POSSIBLE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

TODAY-TONIGHT...FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
STATES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST WILL CONTINUE ITS SLOW MARCH
SOUTHWARD TODAY, DRIVEN BY THE DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND JET MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF.
THE FRONT ITSELF WILL REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION, BUT LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO VEER MORE SOUTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES ITS RETREAT SOUTH AND EAST. THIS WILL ADVECT DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVING BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT, SHOWING A RATHER UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS LATE MORNING WITH BETTER HEATING. ADDITIONAL STORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG BOTH SEA BREEZES AROUND MIDDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STORM MOTION
FOCUSING CONVECTION TOWARDS THE EAST COAST.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE CURRENTLY TRAVERSING THE GULF MOVES ACROSS
OUR REGION AND 80-90KT UPPER LEVEL JET STARTS TO NOSE INTO THE
PENINSULA. MOST NOTABLY, SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD
HEIGHTS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOW 90S, PROVIDING GOOD LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, HEAVY RAIN, SMALL HAIL, AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

WEDNESDAY...ROBUST SHORTWAVE MOVING AROUND THE BASE OF THE LARGER
TROUGH SLIDES THROUGH GULF AND FL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY,
DRIVING THE SURFACE FRONT THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE DAY. WARM AND
MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS,
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES.

DYNAMIC SETUP STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SOUTH FLORIDA ON THE
FAVORABLE SIDE OF THE 100-110KT UPPER LEVEL JET, MID LEVEL TEMPS
DROPPING TO -10 TO -11C, AND WINDS INCREASING TO 30-40KTS.

FRONT WILL CROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTION
TAPERING OFF TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL
BE A LITTLE BIT COOLER THAN TUESDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S DUE TO
MORE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA.

THURSDAY-NEXT WEEKEND...DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH THE MAIN FRONT
EXPECTED TO CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. ADDITIONAL
SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING TWO MORE DRY
REINFORCING FRONTS THROUGH FL THURS AND FRI, KEEPING NORTHWEST FLOW
IN PLACE.

COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP DAYTIME HIGHS A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 80S. MORE NETBALL, THE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOW 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH MID-UPPER 60S ALONG THE GULF AND
ATLANTIC COASTS.

TEMPERATURES WARM CLOSER TO NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST FOR THE WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE THIS MORNING VEERING SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS AHEAD OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO THE STATE. STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH 15-20KTS AT TIMES, VEERING WESTERLY
AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE LOCAL
REGION. GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THURS AND FRI, VEERING
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN US.

SEAS 1-3FT IN BOTH THE GULF AND ATLANTIC TODAY, BUILDING TO 3-5FT
TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER WINDS. SIMILAR HEIGHTS LINGER
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL SEAS UP TO 6FT WITH
GUSTY POST FRONTAL WINDS. SEAS DIMINISHING TO 2-3FT FOR THE WEEKEND.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH APPROACH OF FRONT, AFFECTING ALL THE LOCAL
WATERS.

CLIMATE...

FORT LAUDERDALE SET A RECORD WARM LOW ON MAY 2ND OF 78F, BEATING
THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 77 SET IN 2014.

WEST PALM BEACH ONLY DROPPED TO 77F ON MAY 2ND, TYING THE
PREVIOUS RECORD WARM LOW OF 77 SET IN 2011.

HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR TUESDAY MAY 3RD

RECORDYEAR
FORT LAUDERDALE           911964
MIAMI      911896
NAPLES  912002
WEST PALM BEACH  911986

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  89  73  88  66 /  60  40  70  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  89  75  89  69 /  50  30  60  60
MIAMI            90  74  86  67 /  50  30  60  60
NAPLES           88  75  85  69 /  20  20  70  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....88/ALM
AVIATION...54/BNB





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