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000
FXUS62 KMFL 010528 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
128 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES TODAY. KAPF TAF SITE WILL ALSO SEE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO
REMAIN DRY OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. KAPF TAF SITE WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AFFECT THE TAF SITE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.
THEREFORE...VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED TO KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 17Z TODAY.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITION AT KAPF
TAF SITE TODAY.

&&
.AVIATION..54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR ON WED AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. THUS, MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /GREGORIA

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  80  92 /  10  20  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  81  90 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            79  91  80  91 /  10  20  10  30
NAPLES           76  93  76  92 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 010528 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
128 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS BEFORE BECOMING EASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVER THE EAST
COAST TAF SITES TODAY. KAPF TAF SITE WILL ALSO SEE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THIS MORNING BEFORE SWINGING TO A WESTERLY
DIRECTION THIS AFTERNOON AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THE WEATHER WILL ALSO
REMAIN DRY OVER THE EAST COAST TAF SITES TODAY ALONG WITH VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE CEILING AND VIS. KAPF TAF SITE WILL REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THIS MORNING...BEFORE SOME SHOWERS AFFECT THE TAF SITE
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE.
THEREFORE...VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED TO KAPF TAF SITE AFTER 17Z TODAY.
THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN THE VFR CONDITION AT KAPF
TAF SITE TODAY.

&&
.AVIATION..54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 732 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR ON WED AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. THUS, MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /GREGORIA

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  80  92 /  10  20  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  81  90 /  10  20  10  30
MIAMI            79  91  80  91 /  10  20  10  30
NAPLES           76  93  76  92 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....59/RM
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 302332
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR ON WED AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. THUS, MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  10  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           76  93  76  93 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 302332
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
732 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE LAKE REGION THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR ON WED AFTERNOON...AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS. THUS, MAINTAINED PREVAILING VFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  77  92 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  10  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  91 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           76  93  76  93 /  10  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301938
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  77  92 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  91 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           76  93  76  93 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301938
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  77  92 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  91 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           76  93  76  93 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301938
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSED OVER THE REGION
YESTERDAY IS NOW TO OUR EAST WITH SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL DRYING
TAKING PLACE. THIS IS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE WITH VERY LITTLE LOW
LEVEL CU SHOWING UP BY EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE AS OF
17Z WAS JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH
INLAND. HOWEVER, BOUNDARY LEVEL WINDS REMAIN WESTERLY SO THE SEA
BREEZE WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE INLAND VERY FAST WITH THE WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE HAVING ALREADY SETTING UP AND PUSHING INLAND. AS A
RESULT, AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL HAVE A DELAYED START TODAY WITH
THE HRRR SHOWING ACTIVITY NOT DEVELOPING UNTIL AROUND 18-19Z AND
THEN REMAINING MOSTLY OVER THE INTERIOR.

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS LOOK MOSTLY UNEVENTFUL WITH THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE IN PLACE. THE GLOBAL MODELS DO SHOW A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW
CONTINUING ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH SEVERAL MID LEVEL TROUGHS
PASSING TO OUR NORTH THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER, THESE DO NOT
APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WITH LIMITED DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PWAT HOVERING IN THE RANGE OF 1.5-
1.7" THROUGH THURSDAY ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING
AS THE SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THE MID AND UPPER FLOW WILL BE OUT
OF THE SOUTH ALLOWING FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS TO MOSTLY FAVOR THE
INTERIOR AREAS. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY WITH THE GFS SHOWING PWAT CLIMBING BACK CLOSE TO 2" AS A
COUPLE OF TROPICAL WAVES PASS TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. AFTER THESE WAVES CONTINUE WESTWARD, THE MID LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE NORTH RETURNING SOUTH FLORIDA TO A DEEP EASTERLY FLOW
LATE IN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SHIFTING THE
CONVECTIVE CYCLE TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH SEAS LESS THAN 4 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  77  92 /  20  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  79  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  91 /  20  20  10  20
NAPLES           76  93  76  93 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....30/KOB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301802
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTION. MODELS
SUGGEST A FEW STORMS IN THE INTERIOR. FOR NOW, REMOVED VCTS AS
THERE IS NOTHING AS OF 2PM TO INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY, AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAY ACT TO INHIBIT
MOST OFT HE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A
CUMULUS FIELD TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY,
BUT EVEN IF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMS, IT WILL PROBABLY
MAINLY BE IN THE INTERIOR. ALSO, THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED INLAND, WITH THE ATLANTIC BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE METRO AREA IN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. SO,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  78  91 /  30  40  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  90 /  20  30  10  20
MIAMI            78  90  79  90 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301802
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTION. MODELS
SUGGEST A FEW STORMS IN THE INTERIOR. FOR NOW, REMOVED VCTS AS
THERE IS NOTHING AS OF 2PM TO INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY, AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAY ACT TO INHIBIT
MOST OFT HE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A
CUMULUS FIELD TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY,
BUT EVEN IF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMS, IT WILL PROBABLY
MAINLY BE IN THE INTERIOR. ALSO, THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED INLAND, WITH THE ATLANTIC BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE METRO AREA IN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. SO,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  78  91 /  30  40  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  90 /  20  30  10  20
MIAMI            78  90  79  90 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301802
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTION. MODELS
SUGGEST A FEW STORMS IN THE INTERIOR. FOR NOW, REMOVED VCTS AS
THERE IS NOTHING AS OF 2PM TO INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY, AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAY ACT TO INHIBIT
MOST OFT HE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A
CUMULUS FIELD TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY,
BUT EVEN IF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMS, IT WILL PROBABLY
MAINLY BE IN THE INTERIOR. ALSO, THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED INLAND, WITH THE ATLANTIC BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE METRO AREA IN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. SO,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  78  91 /  30  40  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  90 /  20  30  10  20
MIAMI            78  90  79  90 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301802
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
202 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
AN UNCERTAIN FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONVECTION. MODELS
SUGGEST A FEW STORMS IN THE INTERIOR. FOR NOW, REMOVED VCTS AS
THERE IS NOTHING AS OF 2PM TO INDICATE ANY ACTIVITY, AND HIGH
CLOUDS STREAMING OVER MUCH OF SOUTH FLORIDA MAY ACT TO INHIBIT
MOST OFT HE PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED CONVECTION. THERE IS SOMEWHAT OF A
CUMULUS FIELD TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE COUNTY,
BUT EVEN IF SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION FORMS, IT WILL PROBABLY
MAINLY BE IN THE INTERIOR. ALSO, THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES HAVE
ALREADY PUSHED INLAND, WITH THE ATLANTIC BOUNDARY MUCH OF THE WAY
THROUGH THE METRO AREA IN BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES. SO,
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  91  78  91 /  30  40  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  90  80  90 /  20  30  10  20
MIAMI            78  90  79  90 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  20  30  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301151
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST, KEEPING AN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AFFECTING THE WIND DIRECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA, KEEPING SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH IFR POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR TODAY. HOWEVER, IT
IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME FORMATION NEAR MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THEY CAN IMPACT
ANY OF THOSE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

..HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN AREAS FOR REST OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
METRO AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND ALONG BOTH COAST.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET
UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME SAHARAN DUST WORKING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THIS FOUR OF JULY
WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY INTO LATE THIS
WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THE ATLANTIC SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  78 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  90  80 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            92  78  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 301151
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST, KEEPING AN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AFFECTING THE WIND DIRECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA, KEEPING SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH IFR POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR TODAY. HOWEVER, IT
IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME FORMATION NEAR MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THEY CAN IMPACT
ANY OF THOSE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

..HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN AREAS FOR REST OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
METRO AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND ALONG BOTH COAST.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET
UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME SAHARAN DUST WORKING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THIS FOUR OF JULY
WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY INTO LATE THIS
WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THE ATLANTIC SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  78 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  90  80 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            92  78  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301151
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST, KEEPING AN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AFFECTING THE WIND DIRECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA, KEEPING SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH IFR POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR TODAY. HOWEVER, IT
IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME FORMATION NEAR MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THEY CAN IMPACT
ANY OF THOSE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

..HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN AREAS FOR REST OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
METRO AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND ALONG BOTH COAST.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET
UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME SAHARAN DUST WORKING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THIS FOUR OF JULY
WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY INTO LATE THIS
WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THE ATLANTIC SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  78 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  90  80 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            92  78  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 301151
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
751 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE EAST, KEEPING AN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, AFFECTING THE WIND DIRECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER NORTH FLORIDA, KEEPING SOME ADDITIONAL
INSTABILITY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY. EXPECT MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS, WITH IFR POSSIBLE UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR TODAY. HOWEVER, IT
IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME FORMATION NEAR MAINLY THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THEY CAN IMPACT
ANY OF THOSE AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE ADDED VCTS TO REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015/

..HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN AREAS FOR REST OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...

SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
METRO AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND ALONG BOTH COAST.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET
UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME SAHARAN DUST WORKING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THIS FOUR OF JULY
WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY INTO LATE THIS
WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THE ATLANTIC SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  78 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  90  80 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            92  78  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300725
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN AREAS FOR REST OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
METRO AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND ALONG BOTH COAST.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET
UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME SAHARAN DUST WORKING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THIS FOUR OF JULY
WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY INTO LATE THIS
WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THE ATLANTIC SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  78 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  90  80 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            92  78  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300725
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
325 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

...HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING TO THE WESTERN AREAS FOR REST OF THIS
WEEK INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS MOVES NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND TODAY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
FOCUSING THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE
COULD STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
METRO AREAS AS THE SEA BREEZES PUSH INLAND ALONG BOTH COAST.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTH INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
END OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW TO SET
UP OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND FOCUS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA EACH DAY.

.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK KEEPING THE EASTERLY
WIND FLOW IN PLACE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE LATEST LONG RANGE
MODELS ARE ALSO SHOWING SOME SAHARAN DUST WORKING INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY
WEEKEND. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A LITTLE
LESS COVERAGE LATE THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS TODAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS FOR THIS FOUR OF JULY
WEEKEND. THE SEAS WILL REMAIN AT 2 FEET OR LESS TODAY INTO LATE THIS
WEEK OVER BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THE ATLANTIC SEAS
COULD INCREASE TO 2 TO 3 FEET THIS FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS LOOKS GOOD THROUGH THE FOURTH OF
JULY WEEKEND OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  92  77  91  78 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  79  90  80 /  20  10  20  10
MIAMI            92  78  90  79 /  30  10  20  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300545
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

WITH SEABREEZES ON BOTH COASTS, FOCUS FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL BE
THROUGH THE INTERIOR. SOME STORMS POSSIBLE AT THE MOST INLAND
TERMINAL, KTMB, LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLIES ARND
10KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN VEERING TO THE SE AND S
WHILE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED LATE THIS EVENING
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
REST OF TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A WILDFIRE THAT BROKE OUT OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR ROYAL PALM RANGER STATION EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM A LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT OVER THIS AREA ALLOWING FOR THE SMOKE TO SETTLE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...PATCHY SMOKE HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...

AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVER NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  78  92  78 /  30  30  40  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  90  79 /  20  20  40  10
MIAMI            92  80  91  78 /  30  20  30  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 300545
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
145 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.AVIATION...

WITH SEABREEZES ON BOTH COASTS, FOCUS FOR STORMS TUESDAY WILL BE
THROUGH THE INTERIOR. SOME STORMS POSSIBLE AT THE MOST INLAND
TERMINAL, KTMB, LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EASTERLIES ARND
10KTS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON, THEN VEERING TO THE SE AND S
WHILE WEAKENING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1032 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED LATE THIS EVENING
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
REST OF TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A WILDFIRE THAT BROKE OUT OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR ROYAL PALM RANGER STATION EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM A LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT OVER THIS AREA ALLOWING FOR THE SMOKE TO SETTLE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...PATCHY SMOKE HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...

AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVER NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  78  92  78 /  30  30  40  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  91  80  90  79 /  20  20  40  10
MIAMI            92  80  91  78 /  30  20  30  10
NAPLES           93  77  93  77 /  20  10  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 300232 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1032 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED LATE THIS EVENING
OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND ATLANTIC WATERS...AND SHOULD
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS
IS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP.
THEREFORE...POPS HAVE BEEN REMOVED OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR
REST OF TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.

THERE IS ALSO A WILDFIRE THAT BROKE OUT OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY NEAR ROYAL PALM RANGER STATION EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM A LIGHTNING STRIKE. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT OVER THIS AREA ALLOWING FOR THE SMOKE TO SETTLE TO THE
GROUND. THEREFORE...PATCHY SMOKE HAS BEEN ADDED FOR THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST AREAS OF MIAMI-DADE COUNTY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT THIS TIME AND NO OTHER CHANGES
ARE PLANNED.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 749 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...

AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVER NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  78  92 /  20  30  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  80  90 /  20  20  20  40
MIAMI            77  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 292349
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVER NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

60


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  78  92 /  30  30  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  80  90 /  20  20  20  40
MIAMI            77  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 292349
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
749 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

AFTER THE OUTBREAK OF ACTIVE CONVECTION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THERE ARE LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT COULD
RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTION LATER THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH MAINLY
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVER NIGHT...WITH THE
OCCURRENCE OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE AND WILL AMEND IF NECESSARY. REGIONAL
WINDS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT AND SOMEWHAT VARIABLE OVER NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WEST/EAST COAST SEA BREEZES EXPECTED
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

60


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  78  92 /  30  30  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  80  90 /  20  20  20  40
MIAMI            77  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291938
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  78  92 /  30  30  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  80  90 /  20  20  20  40
MIAMI            77  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291938
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
338 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO SIT OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES.
THIS IS HELPING TO KEEP SOME ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY OVER THE AREA.
FOR THIS EVENING, A 500 MB SHORT WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS HAS AIDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP IN THE LAKE REGION. THE HRRR SHOWS THIS AREA FORMING INTO
A LINE F THUNDERSTORMS OVER PALM BEACH COUNTY THIS EVENING, BEFORE
EXITING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST.

FOR TONIGHT, MODELS ARE SHOWING MOST OF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE SHORT WAVE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.

FOR TOMORROW, A SURFACE HIGH TO THE WEST VERY SLOWLY BEGINS TO
BUILD BACK IN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. MODELS LAST WEEK WERE SHOWING
THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO OCCUR BY TOMORROW, BUT NOW IT LOOKS AS THOUGH
IT WILL SLOWLY BUILD, WHICH WILL TURN THE WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST BY
WEDNESDAY AND EAST BY FRIDAY. BECAUSE OF THIS, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND LAKE REGION TOMORROW. BY WEDNESDAY, THE TURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL SHIFT THE FOCUS OF STORMS MORE TOWARDS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHANCE FOR STORMS
OVER THE EAST COAST OF SOUTH FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND
EVEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE CHANCES DO SLIGHTLY
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY FOR THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

BY FRIDAY, THE HIGH WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH AND POSITIONED RIGHT
FOR THE WIND TO TURN TO THE EAST. THIS WILL SHIFT THE MAIN FOCUS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND GULF
COAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL KEEP THE WIND SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL TURN THE
WIND TO THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW THROUGH THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, THE
WIND WILL TURN TO THE EAST THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SLOWLY INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES INTO NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE CONTINUED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  93  78  92 /  30  30  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  91  80  90 /  20  20  20  40
MIAMI            77  92  80  91 /  20  30  20  30
NAPLES           76  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
120 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
12Z ROAB SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR...YET FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WRF/HRRR RUNS DEPICTING CONVECTION FIRING NW OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON /ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS NORTH OF KRSW/ THEN MOVING ESE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. STRONG WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...AND MENTION OF 45-55 MPH IN HWO IS
COMPLETELY WARRANTED. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND.
THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  77  91 /  30  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
120 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
12Z ROAB SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR...YET FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WRF/HRRR RUNS DEPICTING CONVECTION FIRING NW OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON /ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS NORTH OF KRSW/ THEN MOVING ESE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. STRONG WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...AND MENTION OF 45-55 MPH IN HWO IS
COMPLETELY WARRANTED. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND.
THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  77  91 /  30  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
120 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
12Z ROAB SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR...YET FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WRF/HRRR RUNS DEPICTING CONVECTION FIRING NW OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON /ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS NORTH OF KRSW/ THEN MOVING ESE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. STRONG WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...AND MENTION OF 45-55 MPH IN HWO IS
COMPLETELY WARRANTED. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND.
THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  77  91 /  30  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291720
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
120 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MODELS INCREASINGLY SUGGESTING THAT SCATTERED/NUMEROUS
CONVECTION WILL SPREAD ESE TOWARD ATLANTIC TERMINALS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE WILL BE KPBI...BUT WILL LEAVE ALL EAST
COAST SITES WITH VCTS 19-0Z. ALSO MONITORING FOR TSTMS TO DVLP
ALONG SEA BREEZE...LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS...BUT WITH BOUNDARY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST...ANY INITIATION
WOULD LIKE BE IN VICINITY OF TERMINALS. ACTIVITY WANES BY AT LEAST
2Z...THEN DRY FORECAST. EXPECT SW WINDS TO TURN SSE FOR EASTERN
TERMINALS BY 20Z...THEN LIGHT/CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1025 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

UPDATE...
12Z ROAB SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR...YET FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WRF/HRRR RUNS DEPICTING CONVECTION FIRING NW OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON /ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS NORTH OF KRSW/ THEN MOVING ESE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. STRONG WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...AND MENTION OF 45-55 MPH IN HWO IS
COMPLETELY WARRANTED. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID CHANGES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND.
THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  77  91 /  30  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291425
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
12Z ROAB SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR...YET FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WRF/HRRR RUNS DEPICTING CONVECTION FIRING NW OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON /ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS NORTH OF KRSW/ THEN MOVING ESE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. STRONG WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...AND MENTION OF 45-55 MPH IN HWO IS
COMPLETELY WARRANTED. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
DESPITE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS. MAINTAINED PM VCTS ALL ALL
EAST COAST SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW OVER MIAMI-DADE
/POPS 30 PCT OR LESS/. WINDS BY LATE MORNING WILL BE SEA-BREEZE
DOMINATED. CONVECTION AND WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND.
THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  77  91 /  30  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 291425
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
12Z ROAB SHOWS SIGNIFICANTLY DRY AIR...YET FAIRLY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS. WRF/HRRR RUNS DEPICTING CONVECTION FIRING NW OF CWA THIS
AFTERNOON /ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS NORTH OF KRSW/ THEN MOVING ESE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER. STRONG WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE
WITH THE DRY MID-LEVELS...AND MENTION OF 45-55 MPH IN HWO IS
COMPLETELY WARRANTED. NO SIGNIFICANT FORECAST GRID CHANGES.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 747 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

AVIATION...
DESPITE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS. MAINTAINED PM VCTS ALL ALL
EAST COAST SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW OVER MIAMI-DADE
/POPS 30 PCT OR LESS/. WINDS BY LATE MORNING WILL BE SEA-BREEZE
DOMINATED. CONVECTION AND WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST INTO ATLANTIC WATERS TUESDAY AS THE HIGH TO
MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND.
THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  92  77  91 /  30  30  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  91  80  90 /  20  20  10  20
MIAMI            78  92  79  91 /  20  30  10  20
NAPLES           77  93  77  93 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291147
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
DESPITE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS. MAINTAINED PM VCTS ALL ALL
EAST COAST SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW OVER MIAMI-DADE
/POPS 30 PCT OR LESS/. WINDS BY LATE MORNING WILL BE SEA-BREEZE
DOMINATED. CONVECTION AND WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  76  92  77 /  50  30  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  30  20  20  10
MIAMI            93  78  92  79 /  30  20  30  10
NAPLES           92  77  93  77 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 291147
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
747 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...
DESPITE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING OVER
NORTHERN FL PENINSULA WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN TERMINALS. MAINTAINED PM VCTS ALL ALL
EAST COAST SITES...BUT CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW OVER MIAMI-DADE
/POPS 30 PCT OR LESS/. WINDS BY LATE MORNING WILL BE SEA-BREEZE
DOMINATED. CONVECTION AND WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE BEST CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE NORTHEAST
AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

MARINE...
WIND WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS. THEREFORE...BOATING
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  76  92  77 /  50  30  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  30  20  20  10
MIAMI            93  78  92  79 /  30  20  30  10
NAPLES           92  77  93  77 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290716
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
316 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

...HIGHEST POPS SHIFTING FROM EASTERN AREAS TODAY TO WESTERN AREAS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...

.SHORT TERM...
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THIS WILL KEEP THE STEERING FLOW IN A SOUTH
SOUTHWEST DIRECTION OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TODAY.

THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY
ALLOWING FOR THE HIGH TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A LIGHT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON
TUESDAY WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH INLAND. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS ON TUESDAY.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ALLOWING FOR THE STEERING FLOW TO BE
EASTERLY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER
THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW IN PLACE
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
EACH DAY. HOWEVER...THE EASTERN AREA OF SOUTH FLORIDA COULD STILL
SEE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS EACH DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING
MORE SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. THE WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE 15 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2
FEET OR LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN GOOD OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  93  76  92  77 /  50  30  30  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  92  79  91  80 /  30  20  20  10
MIAMI            93  78  92  79 /  30  20  30  10
NAPLES           92  77  93  77 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 290619
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
219 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

SOME DRIER AIR ALREADY ARRIVING, WITH PWATS THROUGH H4 DOWN TO
1.6" ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS A SHRTWV CUTS ACROSS THE GULF AND
INTO NORTHERN FL TODAY, SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND NORTHERN TERMINALS. HOWEVER,
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MAY HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
SUCH THAT VCTS MIGHT NOT BE MERITED FOR MONDAY PM WITH CONVECTION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD BE
OBSERVED NEAR PBI, WHERE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  75  92  78 /  40  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  80 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            92  79  92  81 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           91  76  92  77 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 290619
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
219 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

SOME DRIER AIR ALREADY ARRIVING, WITH PWATS THROUGH H4 DOWN TO
1.6" ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS A SHRTWV CUTS ACROSS THE GULF AND
INTO NORTHERN FL TODAY, SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND NORTHERN TERMINALS. HOWEVER,
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MAY HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
SUCH THAT VCTS MIGHT NOT BE MERITED FOR MONDAY PM WITH CONVECTION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD BE
OBSERVED NEAR PBI, WHERE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  75  92  78 /  40  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  80 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            92  79  92  81 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           91  76  92  77 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290619
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
219 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

SOME DRIER AIR ALREADY ARRIVING, WITH PWATS THROUGH H4 DOWN TO
1.6" ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS A SHRTWV CUTS ACROSS THE GULF AND
INTO NORTHERN FL TODAY, SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND NORTHERN TERMINALS. HOWEVER,
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MAY HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
SUCH THAT VCTS MIGHT NOT BE MERITED FOR MONDAY PM WITH CONVECTION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD BE
OBSERVED NEAR PBI, WHERE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  75  92  78 /  40  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  80 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            92  79  92  81 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           91  76  92  77 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290619
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
219 AM EDT MON JUN 29 2015

.AVIATION...

SOME DRIER AIR ALREADY ARRIVING, WITH PWATS THROUGH H4 DOWN TO
1.6" ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AS A SHRTWV CUTS ACROSS THE GULF AND
INTO NORTHERN FL TODAY, SOME OF THAT MOISTURE WILL BE REPLENISHED
ACROSS THE LAKE REGION AND NORTHERN TERMINALS. HOWEVER,
RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MAY HOLD ON ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS,
SUCH THAT VCTS MIGHT NOT BE MERITED FOR MONDAY PM WITH CONVECTION
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AT BEST. MOST NUMEROUS STORMS SHOULD BE
OBSERVED NEAR PBI, WHERE TEMPO MVFR/IFR CONDS MAY OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  75  92  78 /  40  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  92  80 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            92  79  92  81 /  20  20  30  20
NAPLES           91  76  92  77 /  20   0  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 290151
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
951 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR SOME
SHORT TERM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
AFFECTED EASTERN MIAMI DADE COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT BISCAYNE BAY
AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO SUBSIDE WITH
ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES WERE
REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
THE COUNTRY WALK AREA IN MIAMI DADE COUNTY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF FLOODING AND THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAD
SUBSIDED.

60

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  94  75  92 /  20  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  92 /  50  20  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  76  92 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 290151
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
951 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR SOME
SHORT TERM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
AFFECTED EASTERN MIAMI DADE COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT BISCAYNE BAY
AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO SUBSIDE WITH
ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES WERE
REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
THE COUNTRY WALK AREA IN MIAMI DADE COUNTY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF FLOODING AND THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAD
SUBSIDED.

60

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  94  75  92 /  20  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  92 /  50  20  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  76  92 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 290151
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
951 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...

THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING FOR SOME
SHORT TERM SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
AFFECTED EASTERN MIAMI DADE COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT BISCAYNE BAY
AND ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS ACTIVITY IS STARTING TO SUBSIDE WITH
ONLY LINGERING SHOWERS. OTHERWISE NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES WERE
REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

THE URBAN FLOOD ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
THE COUNTRY WALK AREA IN MIAMI DADE COUNTY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.
THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF FLOODING AND THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAD
SUBSIDED.

60

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  94  75  92 /  20  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  92 /  50  20  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  76  92 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 282354
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PENINSULA...BUT NO FURTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING OR OVER NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST ACROSS TERMINALS KPBI...KFLL...KFXE AND
KMIA WITH TERMINALS KOPF AND KTMB FORECAST TO HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. ALL EAST COAST TAF SITES ASSIGNED VCTS MONDAY IN 17-18Z
TIME FRAME.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY WEATHER EXPECTED, WITH
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR/LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND PALM BEACHES EARLY WEEK, THEN INTERIOR/GULF COAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. OVERALL, IT APPEARS THAT PERHAPS WE`RE BEGINNING TO EASE
INTO A MORE TYPICAL RAINY SEASON PATTERN.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME,
MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
NORTH FLORIDA WILL EXTEND DOWN TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVE AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE MONDAY AFTERNOON, SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PALM BEACHES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE
PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH TYPICALLY RAISES THE CONCERN
FOR STRONG STORMS. WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, A FEW STORMS COULD CERTAINLY BE STRONG
AROUND THE LAKE AND PERHAPS INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY SHARP
TOMORROW, SO WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, POPS WILL
TREND DOWN FROM THE LAKE/PALM BEACHES TO MIAMI-DADE AND COASTAL
SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND LEAD
TO CONCENTRATION OF MORE GARDEN-VARIETY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE INTERIOR. HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL BE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA EXCEPT UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGHEST HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ON MONDAY,
THEN RANGE FROM NEAR 100F EAST AND WEST COAST TO 102-104F
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...
LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE
THE PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LIFTS OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH HIGHEST
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF NIGHT/MORNING PRECIP EAST COAST. HIGHEST COVERAGE
OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES, THEN TRENDING BACK DOWN TO MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC MAY APPROACH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST BY MID-
WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA. SEAS REMAINING MOSTLY 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  94  75  92 /  20  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  92 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  76  92 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 282354
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PENINSULA...BUT NO FURTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING OR OVER NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST ACROSS TERMINALS KPBI...KFLL...KFXE AND
KMIA WITH TERMINALS KOPF AND KTMB FORECAST TO HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. ALL EAST COAST TAF SITES ASSIGNED VCTS MONDAY IN 17-18Z
TIME FRAME.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY WEATHER EXPECTED, WITH
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR/LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND PALM BEACHES EARLY WEEK, THEN INTERIOR/GULF COAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. OVERALL, IT APPEARS THAT PERHAPS WE`RE BEGINNING TO EASE
INTO A MORE TYPICAL RAINY SEASON PATTERN.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME,
MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
NORTH FLORIDA WILL EXTEND DOWN TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVE AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE MONDAY AFTERNOON, SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PALM BEACHES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE
PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH TYPICALLY RAISES THE CONCERN
FOR STRONG STORMS. WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, A FEW STORMS COULD CERTAINLY BE STRONG
AROUND THE LAKE AND PERHAPS INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY SHARP
TOMORROW, SO WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, POPS WILL
TREND DOWN FROM THE LAKE/PALM BEACHES TO MIAMI-DADE AND COASTAL
SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND LEAD
TO CONCENTRATION OF MORE GARDEN-VARIETY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE INTERIOR. HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL BE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA EXCEPT UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGHEST HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ON MONDAY,
THEN RANGE FROM NEAR 100F EAST AND WEST COAST TO 102-104F
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...
LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE
THE PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LIFTS OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH HIGHEST
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF NIGHT/MORNING PRECIP EAST COAST. HIGHEST COVERAGE
OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES, THEN TRENDING BACK DOWN TO MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC MAY APPROACH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST BY MID-
WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA. SEAS REMAINING MOSTLY 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  94  75  92 /  20  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  92 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  76  92 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 282354
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PENINSULA...BUT NO FURTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING OR OVER NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST ACROSS TERMINALS KPBI...KFLL...KFXE AND
KMIA WITH TERMINALS KOPF AND KTMB FORECAST TO HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. ALL EAST COAST TAF SITES ASSIGNED VCTS MONDAY IN 17-18Z
TIME FRAME.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY WEATHER EXPECTED, WITH
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR/LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND PALM BEACHES EARLY WEEK, THEN INTERIOR/GULF COAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. OVERALL, IT APPEARS THAT PERHAPS WE`RE BEGINNING TO EASE
INTO A MORE TYPICAL RAINY SEASON PATTERN.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME,
MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
NORTH FLORIDA WILL EXTEND DOWN TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVE AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE MONDAY AFTERNOON, SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PALM BEACHES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE
PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH TYPICALLY RAISES THE CONCERN
FOR STRONG STORMS. WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, A FEW STORMS COULD CERTAINLY BE STRONG
AROUND THE LAKE AND PERHAPS INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY SHARP
TOMORROW, SO WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, POPS WILL
TREND DOWN FROM THE LAKE/PALM BEACHES TO MIAMI-DADE AND COASTAL
SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND LEAD
TO CONCENTRATION OF MORE GARDEN-VARIETY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE INTERIOR. HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL BE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA EXCEPT UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGHEST HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ON MONDAY,
THEN RANGE FROM NEAR 100F EAST AND WEST COAST TO 102-104F
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...
LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE
THE PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LIFTS OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH HIGHEST
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF NIGHT/MORNING PRECIP EAST COAST. HIGHEST COVERAGE
OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES, THEN TRENDING BACK DOWN TO MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC MAY APPROACH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST BY MID-
WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA. SEAS REMAINING MOSTLY 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  94  75  92 /  20  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  92 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  76  92 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 282354
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE LINGERING ACROSS THE EASTERN
PENINSULA...BUT NO FURTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THIS
EVENING OR OVER NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL. A LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE WIND WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST ACROSS TERMINALS KPBI...KFLL...KFXE AND
KMIA WITH TERMINALS KOPF AND KTMB FORECAST TO HAVE SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS. ALL EAST COAST TAF SITES ASSIGNED VCTS MONDAY IN 17-18Z
TIME FRAME.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 418 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY WEATHER EXPECTED, WITH
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR/LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND PALM BEACHES EARLY WEEK, THEN INTERIOR/GULF COAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. OVERALL, IT APPEARS THAT PERHAPS WE`RE BEGINNING TO EASE
INTO A MORE TYPICAL RAINY SEASON PATTERN.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME,
MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
NORTH FLORIDA WILL EXTEND DOWN TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVE AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE MONDAY AFTERNOON, SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PALM BEACHES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE
PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH TYPICALLY RAISES THE CONCERN
FOR STRONG STORMS. WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, A FEW STORMS COULD CERTAINLY BE STRONG
AROUND THE LAKE AND PERHAPS INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY SHARP
TOMORROW, SO WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, POPS WILL
TREND DOWN FROM THE LAKE/PALM BEACHES TO MIAMI-DADE AND COASTAL
SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND LEAD
TO CONCENTRATION OF MORE GARDEN-VARIETY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE INTERIOR. HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL BE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA EXCEPT UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGHEST HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ON MONDAY,
THEN RANGE FROM NEAR 100F EAST AND WEST COAST TO 102-104F
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...
LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE
THE PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LIFTS OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH HIGHEST
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF NIGHT/MORNING PRECIP EAST COAST. HIGHEST COVERAGE
OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES, THEN TRENDING BACK DOWN TO MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC MAY APPROACH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

MARINE...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST BY MID-
WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA. SEAS REMAINING MOSTLY 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  94  75  92 /  20  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  92 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  76  92 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...10/CD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 282018
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
418 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY WEATHER EXPECTED, WITH
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR/LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND PALM BEACHES EARLY WEEK, THEN INTERIOR/GULF COAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. OVERALL, IT APPEARS THAT PERHAPS WE`RE BEGINNING TO EASE
INTO A MORE TYPICAL RAINY SEASON PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME,
MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
NORTH FLORIDA WILL EXTEND DOWN TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVE AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE MONDAY AFTERNOON, SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PALM BEACHES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE
PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH TYPICALLY RAISES THE CONCERN
FOR STRONG STORMS. WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, A FEW STORMS COULD CERTAINLY BE STRONG
AROUND THE LAKE AND PERHAPS INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY SHARP
TOMORROW, SO WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, POPS WILL
TREND DOWN FROM THE LAKE/PALM BEACHES TO MIAMI-DADE AND COASTAL
SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND LEAD
TO CONCENTRATION OF MORE GARDEN-VARIETY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE INTERIOR. HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL BE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA EXCEPT UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGHEST HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ON MONDAY,
THEN RANGE FROM NEAR 100F EAST AND WEST COAST TO 102-104F
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...
LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE
THE PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LIFTS OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH HIGHEST
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF NIGHT/MORNING PRECIP EAST COAST. HIGHEST COVERAGE
OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES, THEN TRENDING BACK DOWN TO MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC MAY APPROACH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST BY MID-
WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA. SEAS REMAINING MOSTLY 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  94  75  92 /  20  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  92 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  76  92 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

59/MOLLEDA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 282018
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
418 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT TO ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH FLORIDA FOR THE MID TO
LATE WEEK PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BUILD
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK
WEEK. FAIRLY TYPICAL LATE JUNE/EARLY JULY WEATHER EXPECTED, WITH
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTERIOR/LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND PALM BEACHES EARLY WEEK, THEN INTERIOR/GULF COAST MID TO LATE
WEEK. OVERALL, IT APPEARS THAT PERHAPS WE`RE BEGINNING TO EASE
INTO A MORE TYPICAL RAINY SEASON PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY OVER EASTERN AREAS SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
HEATING WELL BEFORE MIDNIGHT. FOR MONDAY, LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
REMAIN WESTERLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER FAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SAME TIME,
MOISTURE/FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
NORTH FLORIDA WILL EXTEND DOWN TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVE AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE NORTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE MONDAY AFTERNOON, SOME OF THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND PALM BEACHES
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE SHORT
RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST DOWN THE
PENINSULA DURING THE AFTERNOON, WHICH TYPICALLY RAISES THE CONCERN
FOR STRONG STORMS. WITH HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING
LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY, A FEW STORMS COULD CERTAINLY BE STRONG
AROUND THE LAKE AND PERHAPS INTO PALM BEACH COUNTY WITH GUSTY
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE MOISTURE GRADIENT WILL BE FAIRLY SHARP
TOMORROW, SO WITH THE DRIER AIR OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, POPS WILL
TREND DOWN FROM THE LAKE/PALM BEACHES TO MIAMI-DADE AND COASTAL
SECTIONS OF COLLIER AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE WILL START TO BUILD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY AND LEAD
TO CONCENTRATION OF MORE GARDEN-VARIETY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/TSTMS
OVER THE INTERIOR. HOTTEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK WILL BE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S OVER MOST OF THE
AREA EXCEPT UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOCATIONS. HIGHEST HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S ON MONDAY,
THEN RANGE FROM NEAR 100F EAST AND WEST COAST TO 102-104F
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND)...
LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN DOMINATE
THE PATTERN ACROSS FLORIDA AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN/SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES LIFTS OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A EAST/SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WITH HIGHEST
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES INTERIOR TO THE GULF COAST AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE OF NIGHT/MORNING PRECIP EAST COAST. HIGHEST COVERAGE
OF PRECIP EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE VALUES, THEN TRENDING BACK DOWN TO MORE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC MAY APPROACH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE FRIDAY OR SATURDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING EAST/SOUTHEAST BY MID-
WEEK AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO CENTRAL AND NORTH
FLORIDA. SEAS REMAINING MOSTLY 3 FEET OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  94  75  92 /  20  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  93  79  92 /  20  30  20  20
MIAMI            79  92  79  92 /  20  20  20  30
NAPLES           75  91  76  92 /   0  20   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281728
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
128 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
AS EXPECTED. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS AS CURRENTLY NEEDED.EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REPRESENT CURRENT OBS, INCLUDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, MADE ONLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO OTHER PARAMETERS TO ACCOUNT FOR INTERIM MODEL DATA.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS, PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LESS
COVERAGE DUE TO THE DRIER AIR.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL ALSO WASH OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO BE MORE OF A
PLAYER ON TUESDAY PUSHING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
INTERIOR AREAS...AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY...
FOCUSING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS
WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING SLOWLY TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD THROUGH
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

CLIMATE...
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY WHICH ARE:

CITIES   FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA            93             93 - 2012
FLL            93             96 - 1980
PBI            94             95 - 1972
MIA BEACH      92             92 - 1985

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  94  77  92 /  20  30  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  93  79  91 /  20  20  20  20
MIAMI            78  93  78  92 /  10  20  20  20
NAPLES           78  90  78  91 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281728
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
128 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
AS EXPECTED. THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT SOUTH
FLORIDA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN TAFS AS CURRENTLY NEEDED.EXPECT MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REPRESENT CURRENT OBS, INCLUDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, MADE ONLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO OTHER PARAMETERS TO ACCOUNT FOR INTERIM MODEL DATA.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS, PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LESS
COVERAGE DUE TO THE DRIER AIR.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL ALSO WASH OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO BE MORE OF A
PLAYER ON TUESDAY PUSHING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
INTERIOR AREAS...AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY...
FOCUSING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS
WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING SLOWLY TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD THROUGH
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

CLIMATE...
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY WHICH ARE:

CITIES   FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA            93             93 - 2012
FLL            93             96 - 1980
PBI            94             95 - 1972
MIA BEACH      92             92 - 1985

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  94  77  92 /  20  30  40  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  93  79  91 /  20  20  20  20
MIAMI            78  93  78  92 /  10  20  20  20
NAPLES           78  90  78  91 /  10  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281141
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
741 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REPRESENT CURRENT OBS, INCLUDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, MADE ONLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO OTHER PARAMETERS TO ACCOUNT FOR INTERIM MODEL DATA.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS, PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE AREA WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY. THE SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MID DAY AND WILL HELP TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION AROUND
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS TO BE THE ATLANTIC COAST,
ESPECIALLY FROM BROWARD COUNTY, NORTH. IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF IFR UNDER
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LESS
COVERAGE DUE TO THE DRIER AIR.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL ALSO WASH OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO BE MORE OF A
PLAYER ON TUESDAY PUSHING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
INTERIOR AREAS...AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY...
FOCUSING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS
WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING SLOWLY TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD THROUGH
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

CLIMATE...
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY WHICH ARE:

CITIES   FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA            93             93 - 2012
FLL            93             96 - 1980
PBI            94             95 - 1972
MIA BEACH      92             92 - 1985

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  77  94  77 /  40  20  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  93  79 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            93  78  93  78 /  30  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 281141
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
741 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REPRESENT CURRENT OBS, INCLUDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, MADE ONLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO OTHER PARAMETERS TO ACCOUNT FOR INTERIM MODEL DATA.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS, PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE AREA WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY. THE SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MID DAY AND WILL HELP TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION AROUND
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS TO BE THE ATLANTIC COAST,
ESPECIALLY FROM BROWARD COUNTY, NORTH. IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF IFR UNDER
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LESS
COVERAGE DUE TO THE DRIER AIR.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL ALSO WASH OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO BE MORE OF A
PLAYER ON TUESDAY PUSHING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
INTERIOR AREAS...AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY...
FOCUSING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS
WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING SLOWLY TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD THROUGH
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

CLIMATE...
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY WHICH ARE:

CITIES   FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA            93             93 - 2012
FLL            93             96 - 1980
PBI            94             95 - 1972
MIA BEACH      92             92 - 1985

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  77  94  77 /  40  20  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  93  79 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            93  78  93  78 /  30  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 281141
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
741 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED FORECAST TO REPRESENT CURRENT OBS, INCLUDING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE, MADE ONLY A
FEW TWEAKS TO OTHER PARAMETERS TO ACCOUNT FOR INTERIM MODEL DATA.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BE THE
ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS, PROBABLY BEGINNING LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE AREA WILL KEEP THE WINDS IN A
GENERALLY SOUTHERLY DIRECTION TODAY. THE SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP
AROUND MID DAY AND WILL HELP TO INITIATE SOME CONVECTION AROUND
SOUTH FLORIDA. THE MAIN FOCUS LOOKS TO BE THE ATLANTIC COAST,
ESPECIALLY FROM BROWARD COUNTY, NORTH. IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF IFR UNDER
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LESS
COVERAGE DUE TO THE DRIER AIR.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL ALSO WASH OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO BE MORE OF A
PLAYER ON TUESDAY PUSHING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
INTERIOR AREAS...AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY...
FOCUSING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS.

LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS
WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING SLOWLY TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD THROUGH
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

CLIMATE...
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY WHICH ARE:

CITIES   FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA            93             93 - 2012
FLL            93             96 - 1980
PBI            94             95 - 1972
MIA BEACH      92             92 - 1985

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  77  94  77 /  40  20  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  93  79 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            93  78  93  78 /  30  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 280741 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
341 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY EAST COAST METRO AREAS...
...SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST COAST EARLY IN WEEK SHIFTING TO WEST COAST LATE IN WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LESS
COVERAGE DUE TO THE DRIER AIR.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL ALSO WASH OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO BE MORE OF A
PLAYER ON TUESDAY PUSHING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
INTERIOR AREAS...AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY...
FOCUSING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS.


.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING SLOWLY TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD THROUGH
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY WHICH ARE:

CITIES   FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA            93             93 - 2012
FLL            93             96 - 1980
PBI            94             95 - 1972
MIA BEACH      92             92 - 1985

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  77  94  77 /  40  20  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  93  79 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            93  78  93  78 /  30  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 280741
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
341 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY EAST COAST METRO AREAS...
...SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST COAST EARLY IN WEEK SHIFTING TO WEST COAST LATE IN WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE WILL BE
LESS THAN COMPARE TO YESTERDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL ALSO WASH OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO BE MORE OF A
PLAYER ON TUESDAY PUSHING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
INTERIOR AREAS...AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
FOCUSING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS.


.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK
INTO FOUR OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING SLOWLY TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION BY MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS IN
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD THROUGH
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY WHICH ARE:

CITIES   FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA            93             93 - 2012
FLL            93             96 - 1980
PBI            94             95 - 1972
MIA BEACH      92             92 - 1985

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  77  94  77 /  40  20  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  93  79 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            93  78  93  78 /  30  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 280741
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
341 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY EAST COAST METRO AREAS...
...SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST COAST EARLY IN WEEK SHIFTING TO WEST COAST LATE IN WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE WILL BE
LESS THAN COMPARE TO YESTERDAY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL ALSO WASH OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO BE MORE OF A
PLAYER ON TUESDAY PUSHING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
INTERIOR AREAS...AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON TUESDAY ALLOW FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
FOCUSING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS.


.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK
INTO FOUR OF JULY WEEKEND KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING SLOWLY TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION BY MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH SPEEDS REMAINING
10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR LESS IN
BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD THROUGH
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY WHICH ARE:

CITIES   FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA            93             93 - 2012
FLL            93             96 - 1980
PBI            94             95 - 1972
MIA BEACH      92             92 - 1985

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  77  94  77 /  40  20  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  93  79 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            93  78  93  78 /  30  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 280741 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
341 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

...NEAR RECORD HIGHS TODAY EAST COAST METRO AREAS...
...SHOWERS AND STORMS EAST COAST EARLY IN WEEK SHIFTING TO WEST COAST LATE IN WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES KEEPING THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
FLORIDA STRAITS THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE
SOUTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO NORTHERN
FLORIDA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL KEEP A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND ALLOW FOR SOME DRIER AIR OVER
THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO TO WORK INTO THE AREA. THEREFORE...THE
BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE OVER
THE EASTERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LESS
COVERAGE DUE TO THE DRIER AIR.

THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN START TO SHIFT SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTH FLORIDA. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL ALSO WASH OUT OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA DURING THIS TIME. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEA BREEZES TO BE MORE OF A
PLAYER ON TUESDAY PUSHING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
INTERIOR AREAS...AS THE STEERING FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH.

THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA BY
WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE WIND FLOW TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY...
FOCUSING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST
COAST METRO AREAS.


.LONG TERM...
THE HIGH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE THIS WEEK
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...KEEPING THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW
IN PLACE. THEREFORE...THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO FOCUS OVER THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST METRO AREAS LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH SOUTHWEST TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. THE WINDS WILL THEN SWING SLOWLY TO AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION BY THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK WITH SPEEDS
REMAINING 10 KNOTS OR LESS. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS AT 2 FEET OR
LESS IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA.
THEREFORE...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GOOD THROUGH
MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK OUTSIDE OF ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS COULD BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGHS FOR
TODAY WHICH ARE:

CITIES   FORECAST HIGHS     RECORD HIGHS
MIA            93             93 - 2012
FLL            93             96 - 1980
PBI            94             95 - 1972
MIA BEACH      92             92 - 1985

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  94  77  94  77 /  40  20  30  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  93  79  93  79 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            93  78  93  78 /  30  10  20  20
NAPLES           90  78  90  78 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




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