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000
FXUS62 KMFL 231902
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
302 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NORTHWARD. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT BY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. MOST
OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO STAY CONCENTRATED OVER MIAMI-DADE AND
PORTIONS OF BROWARD COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO THE FRONT, THIS WIND CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASING AND IT IS
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT THERE IS STILL A RELATIVELY
LARGE UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR.

HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH A LESSER RISK OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY INTO 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
SOUTH, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY, AND EXTENDING
INTO 00Z SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 200 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION (ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014)

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRAS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES.
BELIEVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SHRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN COVERING WITH VCSH. ISOLATED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHRAS BUT
MAINLY PREVAILED WITH VFR. MAINLY ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LAMP
GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW AT ALL EAST
COAST SITES EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHICH SHOULD SEE THE INCREASE EARLIER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  70  82 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  81  73  82 /  50  30  30  10
MIAMI            74  81  71  82 /  50  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  83  66  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231902
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
302 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014


.DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING SKIES FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA
NORTHWARD. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND WESTERN CUBA. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE NORTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT OF THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF
THE FRONT BY FRIDAY. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT. MOST
OF THE RAIN IS FORECAST TO STAY CONCENTRATED OVER MIAMI-DADE AND
PORTIONS OF BROWARD COUNTY. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. AS THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE GETS CLOSER TO THE FRONT, THIS WIND CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN PLACE TONIGHT. THIS CONVERGENCE WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST LIKELY WILL
EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE OVERALL CONFIDENCE OF THE FORECAST HAS BEEN INCREASING AND IT IS
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT THE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH OF SOUTH FLORIDA. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT THERE IS STILL A RELATIVELY
LARGE UNCERTAINTY WHEN IT COMES TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR.

HEAVY RAINS COULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STREET FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES WITH A LESSER RISK OF MORE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL ATLANTIC BEACHES
BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY INTO 00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND INTERACTS WITH LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
SOUTH, WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD COUNTIES. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN PLACE BEGINNING AT 00Z FRIDAY, AND EXTENDING
INTO 00Z SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION IS IN EFFECT
BEGINNING AT 200 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION (ISSUED AT 214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014)

BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRAS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES.
BELIEVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SHRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN COVERING WITH VCSH. ISOLATED
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING SHRAS BUT
MAINLY PREVAILED WITH VFR. MAINLY ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH LAMP
GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW AT ALL EAST
COAST SITES EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHICH SHOULD SEE THE INCREASE EARLIER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  70  82 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  81  73  82 /  50  30  30  10
MIAMI            74  81  71  82 /  50  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  83  66  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR FLZ173.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

     HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
     EVENING FOR AMZ630.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231814
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRAS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES.
BELIEVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SHRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN COVERING WITH VCSH.
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING
SHRAS BUT MAINLY PREVAILED WITH VFR. MAINLY ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
WITH LAMP GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW
AT ALL EAST COAST SITES EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHICH SHOULD SEE THE
INCREASE EARLIER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...

A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT BETWEEN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PW OF 1.87
IN. WINDS IN THE LOWER 2 KM ARE MAINLY EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO PUSH
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. THIS CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST
LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW OF THESE BANDS COULD STILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED URBAN
FLOODING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW 70S OVER MIAMI-
DADE AND THE MID 60S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES ARE WEAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR (AROUND -5.5C/KM).
SIMILARLY, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -5 TO -6C. THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER SOME
DRYING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AROUND 700 MB WITH A LARGE DRYING
OCCURRING AROUND 500 MB BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  69  81 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  82  73  82 /  50  30  30  10
MIAMI            73  82  71  81 /  50  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  82  66  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

UPDATE...71/JE
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231814
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
214 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHRAS STILL SEEN ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST COAST SITES.
BELIEVE COVERAGE SHOULD BE RATHER ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL MENTION
SHRA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS THEN COVERING WITH VCSH.
ISOLATED MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL ALWAYS BE POSSIBLE WITH PASSING
SHRAS BUT MAINLY PREVAILED WITH VFR. MAINLY ENE FLOW WILL PREVAIL
WITH LAMP GUIDANCE INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY AFTER 12Z TOMORROW
AT ALL EAST COAST SITES EXCEPT FOR KPBI WHICH SHOULD SEE THE
INCREASE EARLIER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 930 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

UPDATE...

A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT BETWEEN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PW OF 1.87
IN. WINDS IN THE LOWER 2 KM ARE MAINLY EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO PUSH
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. THIS CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST
LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW OF THESE BANDS COULD STILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED URBAN
FLOODING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW 70S OVER MIAMI-
DADE AND THE MID 60S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES ARE WEAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR (AROUND -5.5C/KM).
SIMILARLY, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -5 TO -6C. THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER SOME
DRYING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AROUND 700 MB WITH A LARGE DRYING
OCCURRING AROUND 500 MB BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  69  81 /  30  20  20  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  75  82  73  82 /  50  30  30  10
MIAMI            73  82  71  81 /  50  30  30  10
NAPLES           69  82  66  82 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

UPDATE...71/JE
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231330
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...

A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT IS PRESENT BETWEEN SOUTH MIAMI-DADE AND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE 12Z MIAMI SOUNDING CAME IN WITH A PW OF 1.87
IN. WINDS IN THE LOWER 2 KM ARE MAINLY EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 10
KNOTS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO PUSH
FROM THE ATLANTIC WATERS THIS MORNING. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS SHOW AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE BETWEEN NE WINDS OVER
BROWARD AND EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OVER MIAMI-DADE. THIS CONVERGENCE
WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ENHANCING LINES OF SHOWERS, WHICH MOST
LIKELY WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST, OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF SOUTH FLORIDA. A FEW OF THESE BANDS COULD STILL PRODUCE
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME ISOLATED URBAN
FLODDING. SURFACE DEWPOINTS RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW 70S OVER MIAMI-
DADE AND THE MID 60S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE MID LEVEL LAPS
RATES ARE WEAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL AIR (AROUND -5.5C/KM).
SIMILARLY, THE 500 MB TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN -5 TO -6C. THESE
VALUES ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE.

AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER SOME
DRYING WILL BEGIN TO OCCUR AROUND 700 MB WITH A LARGE DRYING
OCCURRING AROUND 500 MB BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING.

A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES, ESPECIALLY FOR MIAMI-DADE AND BROWARD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  72  81  69 /  50  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  75  82  73 /  80  60  60  30
MIAMI            82  73  82  71 /  90  70  70  30
NAPLES           84  69  82  66 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...71/JE
AVIATION/RADAR/THU WX BRIEFING...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 231221
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
821 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANT SHRAS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A MORE VCSH REGIME
THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE EAST COAST SITES. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AT THE
SAME TIME A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY ENHANCING
RAINFALL POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY ACROSS KFLL AND SOUTHWARD. MAINLY
VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED MVFR THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING WITH SHRAS. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS SHOULD TURN MORE EASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY AND INCREASE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 443 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEAR WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
NAPLES. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PALM
BEACH AND NORTHEAST BROWARD COUNTY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN FALLING ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

TODAY...A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THUS A SHARP POP GRADIENT EXISTS AS WELL. POP FORECAST RANGES
FROM NEAR 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO NEAR 0 PERCENT
ACROSS GLADES COUNTY. THE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM WEST PALM BEACH
TO NEAR NAPLES WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OVERLAYS DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL WILL PROMOTE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LEAD TO LIFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
THESE INGREDIENTS COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP FOR BROWARD
OR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FALLING
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS UNDER TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 80 TO THE LOW 80S DUE TO COVER AND
RAIN.

TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAS
WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. DUE TO THE
GFS DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT SHUNTS THE
DEEP MOISTURE TO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE ECMWF SEEMS
MORE REALISTIC WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG THE EAST COAST MAINLY FROM
FORT LAUDERDALE SOUTHWARD.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE REGION...WITH
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE METRO AREAS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN SOUTH OF THE HIGH...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.


MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY TO 20-25 KNOTS BY TONIGHT.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5-6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A NON TROPICAL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  72  81  69 /  50  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  75  82  73 /  80  60  60  30
MIAMI            82  73  82  71 /  90  70  70  30
NAPLES           84  69  82  66 /  60  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 230843
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
443 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A LARGE UPPER LOW ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY. A DEEP PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
AHEAD OF A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION TODAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED
ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEAR WEST PALM BEACH SOUTHWEST TO NEAR
NAPLES. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WAS FALLING ACROSS SOUTHEAST PALM
BEACH AND NORTHEAST BROWARD COUNTY ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS
MORNING...WITH VERY LIGHT RAIN FALLING ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY.

TODAY...A VERY SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION
AND THUS A SHARP POP GRADIENT EXISTS AS WELL. POP FORECAST RANGES
FROM NEAR 100 PERCENT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO NEAR 0 PERCENT
ACROSS GLADES COUNTY. THE BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM WEST PALM BEACH
TO NEAR NAPLES WILL SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY. THE DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME OVERLAYS DEEP LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL WILL PROMOTE HIGH PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY.
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA WILL LEAD TO LIFT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE.
THESE INGREDIENTS COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL SETUP FOR BROWARD
OR MIAMI-DADE COUNTY TODAY...WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FALLING
IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS UNDER TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR 80 TO THE LOW 80S DUE TO COVER AND
RAIN.

TONIGHT...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS. THE GFS IS MUCH STRONGER WITH
THE FEATURE AS IT MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND HAS
WINDS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. DUE TO THE
GFS DEVELOPING A STRONGER LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT SHUNTS THE
DEEP MOISTURE TO EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT. THE ECMWF SEEMS
MORE REALISTIC WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND STRENGTHENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND DEEP MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...ALONG THE EAST COAST MAINLY FROM
FORT LAUDERDALE SOUTHWARD.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH
ACROSS THE THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO FLORIDA. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE...WITH NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS.

SATURDAY...THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY
MORNING AND MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL PUSH INTO
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING MAY BE IN THE 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE LAKE REGION...WITH
60S TO AROUND 70 FOR THE METRO AREAS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY AND
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
FLOW WILL RETURN SOUTH OF THE HIGH...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. LOW CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMETIME TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, THIS WILL ACT AS A TRIGGER TO KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR ALMOST ALL THE
SITES. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE KPBI AND KAPF, WHERE THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS, OR PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT PASSES, WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. BY MID-DAY, THEY
WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 12 KTS, WITH THE DIRECTION PENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THIS MORNING AND THEN POSSIBLY TO 20-25 KNOTS BY TONIGHT.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5-6 FEET. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION AS A NON TROPICAL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AND SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 7 FEET IN THE GULF
STREAM. NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  72  81  69 /  30  20  50  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  75  82  73 /  80  60  60  30
MIAMI            82  73  82  71 /  90  70  70  30
NAPLES           84  69  82  66 /  30  20  30  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 230529
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
129 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY STALL SOMETIME TODAY. WITH PLENTY OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE, THIS WILL ACT AS A TRIGGER TO KEEP
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAF FORECAST FOR ALMOST ALL THE
SITES. THE EXCEPTIONS ARE KPBI AND KAPF, WHERE THE FRONT HAS
ALREADY MOVED THROUGH. EXPECT GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS, OR PERHAPS
THUNDERSTORMS.

WHILE THERE WILL BE A WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT PASSES, WIND SPEEDS
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT, WITH MOST LOCATIONS BEING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS. BY MID-DAY, THEY
WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 12 KTS, WITH THE DIRECTION PENDING ON THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 755 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHIELD HAS INVADED AREAS SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR
ALLEY WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO REFLECT AN EVEN TIGHTER POP GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF. THIS NON-TROPICAL LOW WILL
MOVE ENE TOWARDS THE FL STRAITS AND POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO SOUTH FL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY NEAR THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THROUGH
FRIDAY. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP...PARTIALLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS/DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTION IN SE GULF. SHOWERS NOW FIRING OVER PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF.
MUCH DRIER AIR...NORTH OF NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG
I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. TIGHT N-S POP GRADIENT EXHIBITS NEAR-
CERTAIN RAIN OVER THE EVERGLADES/SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE...TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY.

WITH BOUNDARY NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...TIGHT MOISTURE/POP
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS FORECAST TO
HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL POUR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PENINSULA
THURDAY AND THURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HINTING THIS AFTERNOON THAT
DRIER AIR MAY MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...MEANING THE AREAS NORTH OF A NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH
LINE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...WITH EVEN METRO BROWARD SEEING
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THAN POINTS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DEEP ULVL TROF OVER EASTERN
CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES...AN H5
SHRTWV TROF IN THE GULF WILL DRAG ENEWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHRTV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL RIDE
ACROSS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AS PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
2.5 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...AS A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE OR LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON
IN THIS REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO
SOUTH FLORIDA MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE
WET WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
THRUSDAY AND FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  73  82  72 /  30  30  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  82  76  82  75 /  70  60  70  50
MIAMI            83  74  82  73 /  80  70  80  50
NAPLES           86  70  84  69 /  30  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....23/SK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 222355
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHIELD HAS INVADED AREAS SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR
ALLEY WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO REFLECT AN EVEN TIGHTER POP GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF. THIS NON-TROPICAL LOW WILL
MOVE ENE TOWARDS THE FL STRAITS AND POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO SOUTH FL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY NEAR THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THROUGH
FRIDAY. /GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS TONIGHT BUT PREVAIL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITY AND CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER A BIT ON THU...BUT
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ABOVE IFR. SO ADDED PREVAILING MVFR VIS/CIGS
FOR THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS FOR THU ALONG WITH VCTS.
BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER TSRA, BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO
TIME SO WAS NOT ADDED. FOR KPBI AND KAPF, DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
TO MOVE IN SO MAINTAINED ONLY VCSH THERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT THEN PREVAIL NORTHEAST AT NEAR 10 KT ON THU. THX CWSU
MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP...PARTIALLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS/DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTION IN SE GULF. SHOWERS NOW FIRING OVER PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF.
MUCH DRIER AIR...NORTH OF NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG
I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. TIGHT N-S POP GRADIENT EXHIBITS NEAR-
CERTAIN RAIN OVER THE EVERGLADES/SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE...TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY.

WITH BOUNDARY NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...TIGHT MOISTURE/POP
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS FORECAST TO
HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL POUR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PENINSULA
THURDAY AND THURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HINTING THIS AFTERNOON THAT
DRIER AIR MAY MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...MEANING THE AREAS NORTH OF A NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH
LINE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...WITH EVEN METRO BROWARD SEEING
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THAN POINTS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DEEP ULVL TROF OVER EASTERN
CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES...AN H5
SHRTWV TROF IN THE GULF WILL DRAG ENEWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHRTV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL RIDE
ACROSS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AS PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
2.5 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...AS A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE OR LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON
IN THIS REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO
SOUTH FLORIDA MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE
WET WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHIELD SHOULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SITES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE VCTS MENTION FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE PREDOMINANT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT
A FAIRLY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE KEPT VCSH MENTION OUT FOR
KPBI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
THRUSDAY AND FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  82  73  82 /  40  30  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  82  76  82 /  60  70  60  70
MIAMI            72  83  74  82 /  70  80  70  80
NAPLES           70  86  70  84 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 222355
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
755 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...LIGHT RAIN SHIELD HAS INVADED AREAS SOUTH OF ALLIGATOR
ALLEY WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. THE FORECAST WAS
UPDATED TO REFLECT AN EVEN TIGHTER POP GRADIENT FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH. HOWEVER, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE. LOW PRESSURE IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GULF. THIS NON-TROPICAL LOW WILL
MOVE ENE TOWARDS THE FL STRAITS AND POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY
RAINFALL TO SOUTH FL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AREAS SOUTH OF
ALLIGATOR ALLEY NEAR THE DEEPEST MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE...AND WE
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING THROUGH
FRIDAY. /GREGORIA

&&

.AVIATION...LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BROWARD AND
MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS TONIGHT BUT PREVAIL IN THE VFR CATEGORY.
VISIBILITY AND CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER A BIT ON THU...BUT
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ABOVE IFR. SO ADDED PREVAILING MVFR VIS/CIGS
FOR THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE TERMINALS FOR THU ALONG WITH VCTS.
BRIEF IFR IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER TSRA, BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO
TIME SO WAS NOT ADDED. FOR KPBI AND KAPF, DRIER AIR IS FORECAST
TO MOVE IN SO MAINTAINED ONLY VCSH THERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
OVERNIGHT THEN PREVAIL NORTHEAST AT NEAR 10 KT ON THU. THX CWSU
MIAMI FOR COLLABORATION. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP...PARTIALLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS/DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTION IN SE GULF. SHOWERS NOW FIRING OVER PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF.
MUCH DRIER AIR...NORTH OF NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG
I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. TIGHT N-S POP GRADIENT EXHIBITS NEAR-
CERTAIN RAIN OVER THE EVERGLADES/SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE...TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY.

WITH BOUNDARY NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...TIGHT MOISTURE/POP
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS FORECAST TO
HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL POUR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PENINSULA
THURDAY AND THURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HINTING THIS AFTERNOON THAT
DRIER AIR MAY MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...MEANING THE AREAS NORTH OF A NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH
LINE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...WITH EVEN METRO BROWARD SEEING
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THAN POINTS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DEEP ULVL TROF OVER EASTERN
CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES...AN H5
SHRTWV TROF IN THE GULF WILL DRAG ENEWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHRTV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL RIDE
ACROSS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AS PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
2.5 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...AS A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE OR LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON
IN THIS REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO
SOUTH FLORIDA MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE
WET WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHIELD SHOULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SITES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE VCTS MENTION FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE PREDOMINANT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT
A FAIRLY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE KEPT VCSH MENTION OUT FOR
KPBI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
THRUSDAY AND FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  82  73  82 /  40  30  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  82  76  82 /  60  70  60  70
MIAMI            72  83  74  82 /  70  80  70  80
NAPLES           70  86  70  84 /  50  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221944
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP...PARTIALLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS/DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTION IN SE GULF. SHOWERS NOW FIRING OVER PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF.
MUCH DRIER AIR...NORTH OF NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG
I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. TIGHT N-S POP GRADIENT EXHIBITS NEAR-
CERTAIN RAIN OVER THE EVERGLADES/SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE...TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY.

WITH BOUNDARY NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...TIGHT MOISTURE/POP
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS FORECAST TO
HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL POUR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PENINSULA
THURDAY AND THURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HINTING THIS AFTERNOON THAT
DRIER AIR MAY MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...MEANING THE AREAS NORTH OF A NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH
LINE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...WITH EVEN METRO BROWARD SEEING
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THAN POINTS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DEEP ULVL TROF OVER EASTERN
CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES...AN H5
SHRTWV TROF IN THE GULF WILL DRAG ENEWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHRTV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL RIDE
ACROSS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AS PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
2.5 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...AS A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE OR LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON
IN THIS REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO
SOUTH FLORIDA MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE
WET WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHIELD SHOULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SITES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE VCTS MENTION FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE PREDOMINANT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT
A FAIRLY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE KEPT VCSH MENTION OUT FOR
KPBI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
THRUSDAY AND FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  82  73 /  40  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  73  82  76 /  60  60  70  60
MIAMI            83  72  83  74 /  70  70  80  70
NAPLES           84  70  86  70 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221944
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
344 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT OVERHEAD COMBINED WITH DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DEVELOP...PARTIALLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDINESS/DEBRIS FROM
CONVECTION IN SE GULF. SHOWERS NOW FIRING OVER PORTIONS OF MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY...AND EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD NORTHWARD WITH
TIME...AS LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE GULF.
MUCH DRIER AIR...NORTH OF NEARLY-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ALONG
I-4 CORRIDOR...WILL GRADUALLY FILTER SOUTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT...THUS CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT PRECIPITATION WILL REACH
NORTHERN CWA OVERNIGHT. TIGHT N-S POP GRADIENT EXHIBITS NEAR-
CERTAIN RAIN OVER THE EVERGLADES/SOUTHERN MIAMI-DADE...TO ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS GLADES COUNTY.

WITH BOUNDARY NEARLY OVERHEAD THURSDAY...TIGHT MOISTURE/POP
GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 IS FORECAST TO
HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA...BUT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH WILL POUR NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PENINSULA
THURDAY AND THURDAY NIGHT. MODELS HINTING THIS AFTERNOON THAT
DRIER AIR MAY MAKE SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS INTO SOUTH
FLORIDA...MEANING THE AREAS NORTH OF A NAPLES TO WEST PALM BEACH
LINE WILL HAVE A FAIRLY DRY DAY...WITH EVEN METRO BROWARD SEEING
LESS SHOWER COVERAGE THAN POINTS FURTHER SOUTH DURING THIS PERIOD.

LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...DEEP ULVL TROF OVER EASTERN
CONUS WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC. AS IT DOES...AN H5
SHRTWV TROF IN THE GULF WILL DRAG ENEWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA.
RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD STREAM NORTHWARD IN ADVANCE OF THIS
SHRTV TROF AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE...WHICH WILL RIDE
ACROSS THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY SITUATED NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF
CWA. THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING VERY HEAVY RAIN TO ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...AS PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR
2.5 INCHES. THE LOCATION OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS QUITE UNCERTAIN
AT THIS TIME...AS A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW
PRESSURE OR LOCATION OF SURFACE BOUNDARY WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT
FORECAST ADJUSTMENTS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON
IN THIS REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS
MOISTURE BACK ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO
SOUTH FLORIDA MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE
WET WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHIELD SHOULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SITES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE VCTS MENTION FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE PREDOMINANT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT
A FAIRLY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE KEPT VCSH MENTION OUT FOR
KPBI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.


&&

.MARINE...
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL INCREASE
THRUSDAY AND FRIDAY...ENOUGH SO THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE
WARRANTED. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...BEFORE SOME DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  72  82  73 /  40  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  73  82  76 /  60  60  70  60
MIAMI            83  72  83  74 /  70  70  80  70
NAPLES           84  70  86  70 /  50  40  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221821
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
221 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
RAIN SHIELD CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS FLORIDA KEYS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT. AS IT DOES...LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF THE
MAIN SHIELD SHOULD AFFECT THE EAST COAST SITES. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BUT DECIDED TO REMOVE VCTS MENTION FOR
NOW AS IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL BE PREDOMINANT. MODELS ALSO DEPICT
A FAIRLY SHARP PRECIPITATION GRADIENT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THEREFORE KEPT VCSH MENTION OUT FOR
KPBI DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 908 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

UPDATE...
OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT BY LATER THIS MORNING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT. MAIN HAZARD TODAY IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...A FEW SPOTS MAY RECEIVE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LEADING TO URBAN FLOODING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS DECLARED LAST NIGHT
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. PWATS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE AROUND 1
INCH AROUND TAMPA AND 1.8 INCHES AT NAPLES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD
COVER ONCE AGAIN.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LAKE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND PICK UP A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TD 9. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IF THIS
SCENARIO PANS OUT.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END OF
THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON IN THIS
REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE WET WEATHER COULD
BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  72  81  73  81 /  30  30  20  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  81  75  82 /  50  60  40  70
MIAMI            72  80  73  81 /  40  70  40  80
NAPLES           71  84  70  82 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221308
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
908 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
OVERCAST SKIES THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE AREA.
EXPECT BY LATER THIS MORNING FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SLOW-MOVING COLD
FRONT. MAIN HAZARD TODAY IS HEAVY RAINFALL. THOUGH IT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE...A FEW SPOTS MAY RECEIVE HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
LEADING TO URBAN FLOODING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 758 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
COMBINED WITH A DEEP MOISTURE-RICH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSRAS AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST COAST
SITES. COVERED WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW AND WILL AMEND THROUGH THE
DAY AS NECESSARY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS DECLARED LAST NIGHT
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. PWATS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE AROUND 1
INCH AROUND TAMPA AND 1.8 INCHES AT NAPLES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD
COVER ONCE AGAIN.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LAKE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND PICK UP A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TD 9. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IF THIS
SCENARIO PANS OUT.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END OF
THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON IN THIS
REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE WET WEATHER COULD
BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  73  81  73 /  60  50  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  81  75 /  60  60  60  50
MIAMI            83  73  82  73 /  70  60  70  70
NAPLES           84  71  85  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....84/AK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221158
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
758 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY SLIDE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS
COMBINED WITH A DEEP MOISTURE-RICH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHRAS/TSRAS AFFECTING MAINLY THE EAST COAST
SITES. COVERED WITH VCSH/VCTS FOR NOW AND WILL AMEND THROUGH THE
DAY AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 437 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014/

DISCUSSION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS DECLARED LAST NIGHT
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. PWATS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE AROUND 1
INCH AROUND TAMPA AND 1.8 INCHES AT NAPLES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD
COVER ONCE AGAIN.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LAKE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND PICK UP A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TD 9. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IF THIS
SCENARIO PANS OUT.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END OF
THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON IN THIS
REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE WET WEATHER COULD
BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  73  81  73 /  60  50  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  81  75 /  60  60  60  50
MIAMI            83  73  82  73 /  70  60  70  70
NAPLES           84  71  85  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...10/CD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221003
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
437 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014


.DISCUSSION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS DECLARED LAST NIGHT
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. PWATS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE AROUND 1
INCH AROUND TAMPA AND 1.8 INCHES AT NAPLES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD
COVER ONCE AGAIN.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LAKE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND PICK UP A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TD 9. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IF THIS
SCENARIO PANS OUT.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END OF
THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON IN THIS
REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE WET WEATHER COULD
BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS,
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE IS AGAIN UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SO, HAVE ADDED VCSH AND VCTS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH ALL SITES REVERTING TO VCSH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  73  81  73 /  60  50  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  81  75 /  60  60  60  50
MIAMI            83  73  82  73 /  70  60  70  70
NAPLES           84  71  85  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 221003
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
437 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014


.DISCUSSION... TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS DECLARED LAST NIGHT
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO
MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND INTO THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW. HOWEVER...DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MOST OF THE REGION
TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. PWATS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE AROUND 1
INCH AROUND TAMPA AND 1.8 INCHES AT NAPLES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD
COVER ONCE AGAIN.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LAKE REGION ON THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO THE
THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE MAINLY ACROSS MIAMI-
DADE COUNTY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON
THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OR ITS REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND PICK UP A PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE REMNANTS
OF TD 9. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS
ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND 2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IF THIS
SCENARIO PANS OUT.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD 9 AND THE TAIL END OF
THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON IN THIS
REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOUTH FLORIDA
MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE WET WEATHER COULD
BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS,
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE IS AGAIN UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SO, HAVE ADDED VCSH AND VCTS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH ALL SITES REVERTING TO VCSH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  73  81  73 /  60  50  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  81  75 /  60  60  60  50
MIAMI            83  73  82  73 /  70  60  70  70
NAPLES           84  71  85  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220837
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
437 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014


.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE WAS DECLARED LAST TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THEN MOVE INTO THE
NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THEN BECOME A REMNANT LOW.
HOWEVER...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO MOST
OF THE REGION TODAY FROM THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...WITH PWATS
AROUND 2 INCHES.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...WITH A
SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT. PWATS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE AROUND 1
INCH AROUND TAMPA AND 1.8 INCHES AT NAPLES. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IS FORECAST TO SLIDE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE LAKE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE FAVORABLE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90 KNOTS UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK. THE
LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUD
COVER ONCE AGAIN.

THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND INTO THE
FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION AND COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...SHOWERS WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LAKE REGION ON THURSDAY AS
THE FRONT REMAINS THE MOISTURE GRADIENT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SO THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY APPEARS
TO BE MAINLY ACROSS MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE OR ITS
REMNANTS MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...AND PICK UP A PIECE OF THE ENERGY
FROM THE REMNANTS OF TD 9. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS ABOVE THE 99TH PERCENTILE AND AROUND
2.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY FOR
THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS.

THE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION BY SATURDAY
EVENING. DEWPOINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 50S TO LOW 60S
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY UNDER NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH EASTERLY FLOW RETURNING.

MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE REMNANTS OF TD9 AND THE TAIL END
OF THE TROUGH MAY COMBINE AND TRY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CARIBBEAN SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE
WITH DEVELOPMENT...WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE ALL SEASON IN THIS
REGION...AND MOVES A CYCLONE INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THE ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER...BUT SPREADS MOISTURE BACK
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BEGINNING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SO SOUTH
FLORIDA MAY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE TROPICS...AND MORE WET
WEATHER COULD BE ON THE WAY ONCE AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS,
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE IS AGAIN UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SO, HAVE ADDED VCSH AND VCTS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH ALL SITES REVERTING TO VCSH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH
SEAS AROUND 2 FEET. THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...AND SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. A TROUGH WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  73  81  73 /  60  50  30  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  81  75 /  60  60  60  50
MIAMI            83  73  82  73 /  70  60  70  70
NAPLES           84  71  85  70 /  40  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220536
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS,
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE IS AGAIN UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SO, HAVE ADDED VCSH AND VCTS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH ALL SITES REVERTING TO VCSH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...AFTER A VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO
AREA WITH EXCESSIVE RAINS AND FLOODING, ALL NOW IS QUIET ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS THERE IS LITTLE ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS COULD RE-DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO KEPT THE FORECAST WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE
MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING REGISTERING A PWAT OF 2.07 INCHES. SO HEAVY
RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY./GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NHC SHOWS THAT WHATEVER DEVELOPS
LIKELY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE CERTAIN THAN IT DID A FEW DAYS AGO.
HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE ACTIVE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. IT VERY WELL COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NOW LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA) SETS UP LATE
THIS WEEK AND HOW FAR NORTH DEEP CARIBBEAN MOISTURE PULLS.

MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT IN
THE LOCATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL. SOME RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE MOISTURE AXIS SETTING
UP ACROSS SOUTH FL, WHILE OTHER RUNS HAVE KEPT THE HIGH MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THESE INCONSISTENCIES, THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DECREASING THIS WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL
MATERIALIZE LOCALLY, THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME IS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT NEARBY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST.

MARINE..

WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS FORECASTED TO BE GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET.
THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY THE WINDS COULD INCREASE
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY
THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD LEAD SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDING
TO AROUND 7 FEET DURING THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME THE LOW SHOULD STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  82  73 /  40  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  75  82  75 /  40  40  50  50
MIAMI            84  74  82  74 /  50  50  50  50
NAPLES           84  70  85  69 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220536
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
136 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS,
COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, WILL BRING
ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. HOWEVER,
THERE IS AGAIN UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHICH LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SO, HAVE ADDED VCSH AND VCTS TO ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WITH ALL SITES REVERTING TO VCSH TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WITH BRIEF IFR UNDER HEAVY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 836 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

UPDATE...AFTER A VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO
AREA WITH EXCESSIVE RAINS AND FLOODING, ALL NOW IS QUIET ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS THERE IS LITTLE ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS COULD RE-DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO KEPT THE FORECAST WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE
MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING REGISTERING A PWAT OF 2.07 INCHES. SO HEAVY
RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY./GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NHC SHOWS THAT WHATEVER DEVELOPS
LIKELY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE CERTAIN THAN IT DID A FEW DAYS AGO.
HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE ACTIVE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. IT VERY WELL COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NOW LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA) SETS UP LATE
THIS WEEK AND HOW FAR NORTH DEEP CARIBBEAN MOISTURE PULLS.

MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT IN
THE LOCATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL. SOME RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE MOISTURE AXIS SETTING
UP ACROSS SOUTH FL, WHILE OTHER RUNS HAVE KEPT THE HIGH MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THESE INCONSISTENCIES, THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DECREASING THIS WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL
MATERIALIZE LOCALLY, THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME IS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT NEARBY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST.

MARINE..

WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS FORECASTED TO BE GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET.
THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY THE WINDS COULD INCREASE
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY
THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD LEAD SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDING
TO AROUND 7 FEET DURING THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME THE LOW SHOULD STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  82  73 /  40  30  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  75  82  75 /  40  40  50  50
MIAMI            84  74  82  74 /  50  50  50  50
NAPLES           84  70  85  69 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220036
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
836 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...AFTER A VERY ACTIVE DAY ACROSS THE WEST PALM BEACH METRO
AREA WITH EXCESSIVE RAINS AND FLOODING, ALL NOW IS QUIET ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO LOWER POPS THROUGH THE
FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT AS THERE IS LITTLE ACTIVITY ON THE RADAR.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS COULD RE-DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AND PUSH INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...SO KEPT THE FORECAST WITH THIS POSSIBILITY.
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY TSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY LATE ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA. DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH THE
MIAMI EVENING SOUNDING REGISTERING A PWAT OF 2.07 INCHES. SO HEAVY
RAIN AND POTENTIAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY./GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 828 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY HIGH OVERCAST AND SOME SHOWERS
LATE APPROACHING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS PERHAPS
FIRST IN THE MORNING. STORMS WED AFTERNOON CAN LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR. VCTS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED IN FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES
FOR WED PM.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NHC SHOWS THAT WHATEVER DEVELOPS
LIKELY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE CERTAIN THAN IT DID A FEW DAYS AGO.
HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE ACTIVE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. IT VERY WELL COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NOW LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA) SETS UP LATE
THIS WEEK AND HOW FAR NORTH DEEP CARIBBEAN MOISTURE PULLS.

MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT IN
THE LOCATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL. SOME RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE MOISTURE AXIS SETTING
UP ACROSS SOUTH FL, WHILE OTHER RUNS HAVE KEPT THE HIGH MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THESE INCONSISTENCIES, THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DECREASING THIS WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL
MATERIALIZE LOCALLY, THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME IS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT NEARBY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST.

MARINE..

WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS FORECASTED TO BE GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET.
THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY THE WINDS COULD INCREASE
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY
THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD LEAD SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDING
TO AROUND 7 FEET DURING THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME THE LOW SHOULD STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  84  71  82 /  40  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  83  75  82 /  40  40  40  50
MIAMI            72  84  74  82 /  40  50  50  50
NAPLES           71  84  70  85 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 220028
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
828 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT, WITH ONLY HIGH OVERCAST AND SOME SHOWERS
LATE APPROACHING FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS. WINDS OVERNIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WED AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS PERHAPS
FIRST IN THE MORNING. STORMS WED AFTERNOON CAN LEAD TO BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR. VCTS WILL LIKELY BE ADDED IN FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES
FOR WED PM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 348 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NHC SHOWS THAT WHATEVER DEVELOPS
LIKELY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE CERTAIN THAN IT DID A FEW DAYS AGO.
HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE ACTIVE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. IT VERY WELL COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NOW LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA) SETS UP LATE
THIS WEEK AND HOW FAR NORTH DEEP CARIBBEAN MOISTURE PULLS.

MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT IN
THE LOCATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL. SOME RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE MOISTURE AXIS SETTING
UP ACROSS SOUTH FL, WHILE OTHER RUNS HAVE KEPT THE HIGH MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THESE INCONSISTENCIES, THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DECREASING THIS WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL
MATERIALIZE LOCALLY, THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME IS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT NEARBY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST.

MARINE..

WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS FORECASTED TO BE GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET.
THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY THE WINDS COULD INCREASE
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY
THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD LEAD SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDING
TO AROUND 7 FEET DURING THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME THE LOW SHOULD STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  84  71  82 /  40  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  83  75  82 /  40  40  40  50
MIAMI            72  84  74  82 /  40  50  50  50
NAPLES           71  84  70  85 /  40  40  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211948
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
348 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERN IS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND NHC SHOWS THAT WHATEVER DEVELOPS
LIKELY WILL REMAIN DISPLACED WELL OFF TO OUR SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEK. THIS SEEMS MUCH MORE CERTAIN THAN IT DID A FEW DAYS AGO.
HOWEVER, THIS DOES NOT MEAN THAT THE WEATHER WILL NOT BE ACTIVE
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. IT VERY WELL COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THIS IS DEPENDENT ON WHERE
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (NOW LOCATED OVER NORTH FLORIDA) SETS UP LATE
THIS WEEK AND HOW FAR NORTH DEEP CARIBBEAN MOISTURE PULLS.

MODELS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT IN
THE LOCATION OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AXIS AND THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN/FLOOD POTENTIAL. SOME RUNS HAVE SHOWN THE MOISTURE AXIS SETTING
UP ACROSS SOUTH FL, WHILE OTHER RUNS HAVE KEPT THE HIGH MOISTURE TO
OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THESE INCONSISTENCIES, THE FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. POPS REMAIN IN THE CHANCE TO LIKELY RANGE THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE DECREASING THIS WEEKEND AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOULD HEAVY RAINFALL
MATERIALIZE LOCALLY, THE MOST LIKELY TIMEFRAME IS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY AS SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT NEARBY JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.MARINE..

WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO GENERALLY BE
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS FORECASTED TO BE GENERALLY AROUND 2 FEET.
THERE WILL BE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY THE WINDS COULD INCREASE
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHEAST FRIDAY INTO EARLY
THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD LEAD SEAS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS BUILDING
TO AROUND 7 FEET DURING THIS TIME. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS TIME THE LOW SHOULD STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  70  84  71  82 /  60  40  30  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  83  75  82 /  60  40  40  50
MIAMI            72  84  74  82 /  60  50  50  50
NAPLES           71  84  70  85 /  60  40  30  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
929 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BASED ON CURRENT SHORT TERM
MODEL TRENDS, IT LOOKS LIKE A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND
PUSH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL
ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THEREFORE...THE POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA A LITTLE BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY DIMINISHES. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT
KNOWN AT THIS TIME FOR THE TAF SITES. SO HAVE ONLY PUT IN VCSH FOR
THIS MORNING AND VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
ACTIVITY GETS GOING OVER THE AREA THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED
TO THE TAF SITES THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE EAST COASTAL AREAS. SO THE ONLY SITE
THAT WILL SEE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE KFLL.

KAPF TAF SITE SHOULD ALSO SEE A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. SO HAVE MADE THE WIND DIRECTION AT KAPF A SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AFTER 17Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES. BUT COULD FALL INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS IF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITE. A TEMPO GROUP WOULD BE ADDED IF THIS IS EXPECTED OR IS
OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ON
THURSDAY AND THEN INTERACT WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL
CUTOFF...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AND TOWARDS THE LAKE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL TAP INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BRINGING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...THE GULF COAST...AND DEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DEEP MOISTURE MAY GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONT...AND
PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS MONITORING
THIS AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEEP
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD. A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SO THE FORECAST
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...LEADING TO A FEW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
SOME MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED PROB30 GROUPS AT
ALL SITES TO SHOW THIS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DUE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND STORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
THERE WAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND INTERACT WITH A FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  71  84  72 /  70  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  83  75 /  70  30  40  30
MIAMI            83  72  84  74 /  70  30  50  20
NAPLES           82  71  84  70 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
929 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. BASED ON CURRENT SHORT TERM
MODEL TRENDS, IT LOOKS LIKE A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND
PUSH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY, AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. THIS WILL
ENHANCE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR AND EAST COAST METRO AREAS.
THEREFORE...THE POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA A LITTLE BIT FOR THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE STORMS
COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST COAST METRO
AREAS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AS THE
HEATING OF THE DAY DIMINISHES. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AREAS. THEREFORE, THE FORECAST FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS WILL
REMAIN OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT
KNOWN AT THIS TIME FOR THE TAF SITES. SO HAVE ONLY PUT IN VCSH FOR
THIS MORNING AND VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
ACTIVITY GETS GOING OVER THE AREA THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED
TO THE TAF SITES THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE EAST COASTAL AREAS. SO THE ONLY SITE
THAT WILL SEE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE KFLL.

KAPF TAF SITE SHOULD ALSO SEE A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. SO HAVE MADE THE WIND DIRECTION AT KAPF A SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AFTER 17Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES. BUT COULD FALL INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS IF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITE. A TEMPO GROUP WOULD BE ADDED IF THIS IS EXPECTED OR IS
OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

AVIATION...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ON
THURSDAY AND THEN INTERACT WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL
CUTOFF...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AND TOWARDS THE LAKE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL TAP INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BRINGING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...THE GULF COAST...AND DEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DEEP MOISTURE MAY GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONT...AND
PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS MONITORING
THIS AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEEP
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD. A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SO THE FORECAST
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...LEADING TO A FEW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
SOME MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED PROB30 GROUPS AT
ALL SITES TO SHOW THIS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DUE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND STORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
THERE WAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND INTERACT WITH A FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  71  84  72 /  70  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  83  75 /  70  30  40  30
MIAMI            83  72  84  74 /  70  30  50  20
NAPLES           82  71  84  70 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55/CWC
LONG TERM....55/CWC




000
FXUS62 KMFL 211141 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
741 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT
KNOWN AT THIS TIME FOR THE TAF SITES. SO HAVE ONLY PUT IN VCSH FOR
THIS MORNING AND VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
ACTIVITY GETS GOING OVER THE AREA THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED
TO THE TAF SITES THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE EAST COASTAL AREAS. SO THE ONLY SITE
THAT WILL SEE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE KFLL.

KAPF TAF SITE SHOULD ALSO SEE A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. SO HAVE MADE THE WIND DIRECTION AT KAPF A SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AFTER 17Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES. BUT COULD FALL INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS IF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITE. A TEMPO GROUP WOULD BE ADDED IF THIS IS EXPECTED OR IS
OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ON
THURSDAY AND THEN INTERACT WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL
CUTOFF...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AND TOWARDS THE LAKE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL TAP INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BRINGING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...THE GULF COAST...AND DEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DEEP MOISTURE MAY GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONT...AND
PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS MONITORING
THIS AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEEP
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD. A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SO THE FORECAST
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...LEADING TO A FEW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
SOME MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED PROB30 GROUPS AT
ALL SITES TO SHOW THIS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DUE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND STORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
THERE WAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND INTERACT WITH A FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  71  84  72 /  60  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  83  75 /  60  30  40  30
MIAMI            83  72  84  74 /  60  30  50  20
NAPLES           82  71  84  70 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211141 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
741 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT
KNOWN AT THIS TIME FOR THE TAF SITES. SO HAVE ONLY PUT IN VCSH FOR
THIS MORNING AND VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
ACTIVITY GETS GOING OVER THE AREA THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED
TO THE TAF SITES THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE EAST COASTAL AREAS. SO THE ONLY SITE
THAT WILL SEE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE KFLL.

KAPF TAF SITE SHOULD ALSO SEE A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. SO HAVE MADE THE WIND DIRECTION AT KAPF A SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AFTER 17Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES. BUT COULD FALL INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS IF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITE. A TEMPO GROUP WOULD BE ADDED IF THIS IS EXPECTED OR IS
OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ON
THURSDAY AND THEN INTERACT WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL
CUTOFF...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AND TOWARDS THE LAKE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL TAP INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BRINGING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...THE GULF COAST...AND DEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DEEP MOISTURE MAY GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONT...AND
PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS MONITORING
THIS AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEEP
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD. A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SO THE FORECAST
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...LEADING TO A FEW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
SOME MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED PROB30 GROUPS AT
ALL SITES TO SHOW THIS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DUE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND STORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
THERE WAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND INTERACT WITH A FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  71  84  72 /  60  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  83  75 /  60  30  40  30
MIAMI            83  72  84  74 /  60  30  50  20
NAPLES           82  71  84  70 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 211141 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
741 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES OF SOUTH FLORIDA
THIS MORNING BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOT
KNOWN AT THIS TIME FOR THE TAF SITES. SO HAVE ONLY PUT IN VCSH FOR
THIS MORNING AND VCTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ONCE THE
ACTIVITY GETS GOING OVER THE AREA THEN A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE ADDED
TO THE TAF SITES THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING BEFORE
INCREASING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHERLY DIRECTION OVER MOST OF THE TAF SITES. THERE COULD BE A
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SETTING UP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN NEAR THE EAST COASTAL AREAS. SO THE ONLY SITE
THAT WILL SEE A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL BE KFLL.

KAPF TAF SITE SHOULD ALSO SEE A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON. SO HAVE MADE THE WIND DIRECTION AT KAPF A SOUTHWEST
DIRECTION AFTER 17Z TODAY.

THE CEILING AND VIS WILL ALSO REMAIN IN VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS
TIME OVER ALL OF SOUTH FLORIDA TAF SITES. BUT COULD FALL INTO MVFR
CONDITIONS IF ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOVE THROUGH THE TAF
SITE. A TEMPO GROUP WOULD BE ADDED IF THIS IS EXPECTED OR IS
OCCURRING AT ANY OF THE TAF SITES.

&&
.AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 450 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ON
THURSDAY AND THEN INTERACT WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL
CUTOFF...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AND TOWARDS THE LAKE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL TAP INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BRINGING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...THE GULF COAST...AND DEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DEEP MOISTURE MAY GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONT...AND
PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS MONITORING
THIS AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEEP
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD. A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SO THE FORECAST
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...LEADING TO A FEW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AVIATION...
SOME MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED PROB30 GROUPS AT
ALL SITES TO SHOW THIS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DUE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND STORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
THERE WAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND INTERACT WITH A FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  71  84  72 /  60  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  83  75 /  60  30  40  30
MIAMI            83  72  84  74 /  60  30  50  20
NAPLES           82  71  84  70 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....55/CWC
AVIATION...54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 210850
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
450 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ON
THURSDAY AND THEN INTERACT WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL
CUTOFF...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AND TOWARDS THE LAKE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL TAP INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BRINGING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...THE GULF COAST...AND DEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DEEP MOISTURE MAY GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONT...AND
PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS MONITORING
THIS AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEEP
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD. A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SO THE FORECAST
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...LEADING TO A FEW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED PROB30 GROUPS AT
ALL SITES TO SHOW THIS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DUE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND STORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
THERE WAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND INTERACT WITH A FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  71  84  72 /  60  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  83  75 /  60  30  40  30
MIAMI            83  72  84  74 /  60  30  50  20
NAPLES           82  71  84  70 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 210850
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
450 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WERE LOCATED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AND
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN ON
THURSDAY AND THEN INTERACT WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND SOUTHEAST WILL
CUTOFF...WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES PUSHING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS VIRGINIA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WILL FORCE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
TODAY...AND TOWARDS THE LAKE REGION BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL TAP INTO THE DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BRINGING CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVER AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS. ISOLATED STREET
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY. NOCTURNAL SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS...THE GULF COAST...AND DEEP SOUTH
FLORIDA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND THE DEEP MOISTURE MAY GET SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH.
THE ECMWF IS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE GFS WITH THE FRONT...AND
PUSHES THE DEEP MOISTURE BACK ACROSS DEEP SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE LOWER POPS ON WEDNESDAY.

MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE
WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WAS MONITORING
THIS AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS RUNS...AND HAVE ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE STILL DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE DEEP
MOISTURE GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD. A SMALL DEVIATION IN THE TRACK OF
THE DISTURBANCE COULD LEAD TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SO THE FORECAST
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND A
COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. HOWEVER...SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY GET TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION...LEADING TO A FEW
SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
SOME MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED PROB30 GROUPS AT
ALL SITES TO SHOW THIS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DUE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES INCREASE TODAY THROUGH THE
WEEK...AND LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES ARE POSSIBLE IN AND
AROUND STORMS. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE IS BEING MONITORED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.
THERE WAS A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND INTERACT WITH A FRONT
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  71  84  72 /  60  30  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  74  83  75 /  60  30  40  30
MIAMI            83  72  84  74 /  60  30  50  20
NAPLES           82  71  84  70 /  60  30  40  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84/AK
LONG TERM....84/AK
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 210557
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SOME MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED PROB30 GROUPS AT
ALL SITES TO SHOW THIS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DUE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...PWAT ON THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING INCREASED A FULL INCH
SINCE THIS MORNING...AND CONFIRMED BY GPS MET DATA AND SITS NOW AT
NEAR 2" AT MIAMI...UP FROM 0.91 INCHES THIS MORNING! THIS ABRUPT
MOISTURE SURGE INDUCED TSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AREAS NEAR CUTLER BAY
RECEIVING OVER 6"! STREET FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS THIS AREA
BEFORE THE STORMS ROLLED OFF THE COAST. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
NOW OCCURRING AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SO KEPT POPS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  71 /  50  50  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  84  76 /  50  50  50  50
MIAMI            85  74  85  74 /  50  50  60  50
NAPLES           85  70  85  70 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 210557
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SOME MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED PROB30 GROUPS AT
ALL SITES TO SHOW THIS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DUE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...PWAT ON THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING INCREASED A FULL INCH
SINCE THIS MORNING...AND CONFIRMED BY GPS MET DATA AND SITS NOW AT
NEAR 2" AT MIAMI...UP FROM 0.91 INCHES THIS MORNING! THIS ABRUPT
MOISTURE SURGE INDUCED TSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AREAS NEAR CUTLER BAY
RECEIVING OVER 6"! STREET FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS THIS AREA
BEFORE THE STORMS ROLLED OFF THE COAST. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
NOW OCCURRING AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SO KEPT POPS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  71 /  50  50  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  84  76 /  50  50  50  50
MIAMI            85  74  85  74 /  50  50  60  50
NAPLES           85  70  85  70 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 210048
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
848 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...PWAT ON THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING INCREASED A FULL INCH
SINCE THIS MORNING...AND CONFIRMED BY GPS MET DATA AND SITS NOW AT
NEAR 2" AT MIAMI...UP FROM 0.91 INCHES THIS MORNING! THIS ABRUPT
MOISTURE SURGE INDUCED TSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AREAS NEAR CUTLER BAY
RECEIVING OVER 6"! STREET FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS THIS AREA
BEFORE THE STORMS ROLLED OFF THE COAST. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
NOW OCCURRING AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SO KEPT POPS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...

SHWS AND A FEW STORMS WHICH AFFECTED MIA AND NEARBY TERMINALS HAVE
WEAKENED AND DEPARTED OFFSHORE. SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATER, AS
THEY REDEVELOP OVER THE FLOIRDA STRAITS TONIGHT, SO AFTER A BREAK
VCSH WAS USED. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ENTERING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, WILL LEAD
TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. VCTS MAY BE
NECESSARY WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

.POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 202352
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

SHWS AND A FEW STORMS WHICH AFFECTED MIA AND NEARBY TERMINALS HAVE
WEAKENED AND DEPARTED OFFSHORE. SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATER, AS
THEY REDEVELOP OVER THE FLOIRDA STRAITS TONIGHT, SO AFTER A BREAK
VCSH WAS USED. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ENTERING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, WILL LEAD
TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. VCTS MAY BE
NECESSARY WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

..POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 202352
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

SHWS AND A FEW STORMS WHICH AFFECTED MIA AND NEARBY TERMINALS HAVE
WEAKENED AND DEPARTED OFFSHORE. SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATER, AS
THEY REDEVELOP OVER THE FLOIRDA STRAITS TONIGHT, SO AFTER A BREAK
VCSH WAS USED. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ENTERING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, WILL LEAD
TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. VCTS MAY BE
NECESSARY WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

..POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM





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