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000
FXUS62 KMFL 210557
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SOME MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED PROB30 GROUPS AT
ALL SITES TO SHOW THIS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DUE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...PWAT ON THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING INCREASED A FULL INCH
SINCE THIS MORNING...AND CONFIRMED BY GPS MET DATA AND SITS NOW AT
NEAR 2" AT MIAMI...UP FROM 0.91 INCHES THIS MORNING! THIS ABRUPT
MOISTURE SURGE INDUCED TSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AREAS NEAR CUTLER BAY
RECEIVING OVER 6"! STREET FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS THIS AREA
BEFORE THE STORMS ROLLED OFF THE COAST. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
NOW OCCURRING AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SO KEPT POPS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  71 /  50  50  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  84  76 /  50  50  50  50
MIAMI            85  74  85  74 /  50  50  60  50
NAPLES           85  70  85  70 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI





000
FXUS62 KMFL 210557
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
157 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
SOME MOISTURE IS RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE AREA.
SHOWERS THIS MORNING WILL HAVE A GOOD POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE PLACED PROB30 GROUPS AT
ALL SITES TO SHOW THIS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, WITH
POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR DUE TO HEAVY SHOWERS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...PWAT ON THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING INCREASED A FULL INCH
SINCE THIS MORNING...AND CONFIRMED BY GPS MET DATA AND SITS NOW AT
NEAR 2" AT MIAMI...UP FROM 0.91 INCHES THIS MORNING! THIS ABRUPT
MOISTURE SURGE INDUCED TSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AREAS NEAR CUTLER BAY
RECEIVING OVER 6"! STREET FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS THIS AREA
BEFORE THE STORMS ROLLED OFF THE COAST. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
NOW OCCURRING AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SO KEPT POPS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. /GREGORIA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  71 /  50  50  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  76  84  76 /  50  50  50  50
MIAMI            85  74  85  74 /  50  50  60  50
NAPLES           85  70  85  70 /  50  40  50  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...57/DG
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...13/SI




000
FXUS62 KMFL 210048
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
848 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...PWAT ON THE EVENING MIAMI SOUNDING INCREASED A FULL INCH
SINCE THIS MORNING...AND CONFIRMED BY GPS MET DATA AND SITS NOW AT
NEAR 2" AT MIAMI...UP FROM 0.91 INCHES THIS MORNING! THIS ABRUPT
MOISTURE SURGE INDUCED TSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MIAMI-DADE
COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH AREAS NEAR CUTLER BAY
RECEIVING OVER 6"! STREET FLOODING OCCURRED ACROSS THIS AREA
BEFORE THE STORMS ROLLED OFF THE COAST. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
NOW OCCURRING AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY
LIFTING NORTHWARD. SO KEPT POPS IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH. /GREGORIA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 752 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

AVIATION...

SHWS AND A FEW STORMS WHICH AFFECTED MIA AND NEARBY TERMINALS HAVE
WEAKENED AND DEPARTED OFFSHORE. SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATER, AS
THEY REDEVELOP OVER THE FLOIRDA STRAITS TONIGHT, SO AFTER A BREAK
VCSH WAS USED. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ENTERING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, WILL LEAD
TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. VCTS MAY BE
NECESSARY WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

.POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 202352
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

SHWS AND A FEW STORMS WHICH AFFECTED MIA AND NEARBY TERMINALS HAVE
WEAKENED AND DEPARTED OFFSHORE. SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATER, AS
THEY REDEVELOP OVER THE FLOIRDA STRAITS TONIGHT, SO AFTER A BREAK
VCSH WAS USED. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ENTERING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, WILL LEAD
TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. VCTS MAY BE
NECESSARY WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

..POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 202352
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
752 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

SHWS AND A FEW STORMS WHICH AFFECTED MIA AND NEARBY TERMINALS HAVE
WEAKENED AND DEPARTED OFFSHORE. SHOWERS MAY REDEVELOP LATER, AS
THEY REDEVELOP OVER THE FLOIRDA STRAITS TONIGHT, SO AFTER A BREAK
VCSH WAS USED. ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ENTERING FROM THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO, WILL LEAD
TO MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY. VCTS MAY BE
NECESSARY WITH THE NEXT SET OF TAFS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

..POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LATE THIS WEEK...

SHORT TERM...

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.

LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 201955
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LET THIS WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 201955
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL LET THIS WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 201955 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FALL LATE THIS
WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 201955 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
355 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

...POSSIBLE WET CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINFALL FALL LATE THIS
WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...

.TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN CLOSE OFF NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY PUSHING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION BEFORE
STALLING OUT.

THE STEERING FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL ALSO SWING FROM AN
EASTERLY DIRECTION TONIGHT TO A SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY
ALLOWING FOR TROPICAL MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTH. THEREFORE...POPS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL BE RAISED TO
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...
SOUTH FLORIDA`S WEATHER WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS THINKING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG WITH DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE.

THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALSO REMAIN OVER THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE
REGION DURING THIS TIME FRAME WHICH WILL KEEP THE SURFACE WINDS
IN AN EASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD
ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THEREFORE...THE POPS WILL
REMAIN IN THE 50 TO 70 PERCENT RANGE OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FOR LATE
THIS WEEK WITH THE BEST COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS.

THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
THIS WEEK IF THIS WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP.

A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD EVEN BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEK...AS THERE IS ALSO A MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WILL BE WORKING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA FROM THE WEST.


.LONG TERM...
THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL
STALL OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING BACK WEST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WATERS. THE GFS LONG RANGE MODEL IS SHOWING THAT THE
DISTURBANCE WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS YOU CAN SEE FROM THE LONG RANGE MODELS...THERE IS VERY LOW
CONVENIENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO WILL NOT CHANGE THE EXTENDED FORECAST AT THIS TIME...AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF AND
GUIDANCE FROM NHC.

THEREFORE...SOUTH FLORIDA RESIDENTS AND VISITOR NEED TO CONTINUE
TO PAY ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MIAMI FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH SPEEDS OF
15 KNOTS OR LESS. FOR LATE THIS WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND..THE WIND
SPEEDS AND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF
THE DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  71  84 /  30  50  50  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  76  84  76  84 /  40  50  50  50
MIAMI            74  85  74  85 /  50  50  50  60
NAPLES           70  85  70  85 /  30  50  40  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 201724
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
124 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED AT THE BASE OF A STRONG
INVERSION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BUT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL NOT ANTICIPATE SHRA WITH CIGS REMAINING VFR.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE SHRA DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST,
HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH AND THINK ANY CHANCE
FOR THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO START TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR ALLEY TODAY ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA
BREEZES COLLIDED. SO WILL KEEP A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALLIGATOR ALLEY FOR TODAY.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODEL AND MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE COARSE OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY AND REACH NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KMFL 201724
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
124 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER HAS DEVELOPED AT THE BASE OF A STRONG
INVERSION ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA BUT WITH VERY DRY AIR ABOVE THE
INVERSION WILL NOT ANTICIPATE SHRA WITH CIGS REMAINING VFR.
MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH
POSSIBLE SHRA DEVELOPMENT LIKELY. THAT FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST,
HAVE NOT INTRODUCED ANYTHING OTHER THAN VCSH AND THINK ANY CHANCE
FOR THUNDER WILL BE VERY LATE IN THE FORECAST.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 938 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO START TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR ALLEY TODAY ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA
BREEZES COLLIDED. SO WILL KEEP A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALLIGATOR ALLEY FOR TODAY.

UPDATE...54/BNB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODEL AND MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE COARSE OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY AND REACH NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST.

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KMFL 201338 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO START TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR ALLEY TODAY ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA
BREEZES COLLIDED. SO WILL KEEP A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALLIGATOR ALLEY FOR TODAY.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODEL AND MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE COARSE OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY AND REACH NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  73  84  72 /  10  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  76  84  75 /  20  20  40  30
MIAMI            85  75  84  75 /  20  20  50  30
NAPLES           86  73  82  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 201338 AAA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
938 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL MOVE EAST INTO
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR THE EASTERLY WIND
FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. THIS IN TURN WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME MOISTURE TO START TO WORK INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT FROM THE SOUTH. AT THE SAME TIME...THE EAST AND WEST
COAST SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
AREAS SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR ALLEY TODAY ESPECIALLY WHERE THE SEA
BREEZES COLLIDED. SO WILL KEEP A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALLIGATOR ALLEY FOR TODAY.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODEL AND MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE COARSE OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY AND REACH NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  73  84  72 /  10  20  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  76  84  75 /  20  20  40  30
MIAMI            85  75  84  75 /  20  20  50  30
NAPLES           86  73  82  72 /  20  20  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 200812
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
412 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODEL AND MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE COARSE OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY AND REACH NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  73  84  72 /  10  10  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  76  84  75 /  20  20  40  30
MIAMI            85  75  84  75 /  20  20  50  30
NAPLES           86  73  82  72 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 200812
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
412 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.DISCUSSION...

THE GLOBAL MODEL AND MOST RECENT GUIDANCE CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AND
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVER THE
LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS CONSISTENTLY INDICATED THAT TROPICAL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS WILL SLOWLY ENTER THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE COARSE OF THE WEEK WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT PWAT`S COULD RISE FAIRLY QUICKLY ON
TUESDAY AND REACH NEAR TWO INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
PENINSULA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING MOISTURE...THE GLOBAL
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD
INTO THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH INCREASING UPPER
LEVEL WINDS BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL ENHANCE
CHANCES OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST. HOWEVER THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATER IN THE WEEK AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDING INTO THE EASTERN GULF...WITH THE NET EFFECT BEING DEEP
MOISTURE CONTINUING ACROSS THE REGION AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF AND SUGGESTS THAT GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. SO ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY THROUGH MID-WEEK REGIONAL WINDS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY
AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY AROUND
2 FEET. WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WATERS
ON TUESDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK...LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES
WITH THE OCCURRENCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. WITH AN AREA OF
BROAD LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  73  84  72 /  10  10  40  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  76  84  75 /  20  20  40  30
MIAMI            85  75  84  75 /  20  20  50  30
NAPLES           86  73  82  72 /  10  20  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...71/JE
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 200525
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
125 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND ALMOST CALM WINDS THIS MORNING..BY MIDDAY...WINDS
SHOULD BE ESE AT 10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO
TRANSITION NAPLES TO SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A FEW
MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  73  85  72 /  10  20  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  75  85  75 /  10  30  50  50
MIAMI            86  75  85  74 /  20  40  50  50
NAPLES           86  71  85  71 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...71/JE





000
FXUS62 KMFL 200525
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
125 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...

CLEAR SKIES AND ALMOST CALM WINDS THIS MORNING..BY MIDDAY...WINDS
SHOULD BE ESE AT 10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO
TRANSITION NAPLES TO SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL WITH A FEW
MORE CLOUDS EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  86  73  85  72 /  10  20  40  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  86  75  85  75 /  10  30  50  50
MIAMI            86  75  85  74 /  20  40  50  50
NAPLES           86  71  85  71 /  10  20  40  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...71/JE




000
FXUS62 KMFL 200014
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
814 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ONLY A FEW PASSING CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. ONGOING FORECAST IS IN
GREAT SHAPE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH TREND
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE ESE AT
10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO TRANSITION NAPLES TO
SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ATHOUGH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 192329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH TREND
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE ESE AT
10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO TRANSITION NAPLES TO
SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ATHOUGH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 192329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH TREND
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE ESE AT
10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO TRANSITION NAPLES TO
SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ATHOUGH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 192329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH TREND
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE ESE AT
10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO TRANSITION NAPLES TO
SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ATHOUGH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 192329
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
729 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CLEARING SKIES AND CALMING WINDS THIS EVENING...WITH TREND
PERSISTING INTO MONDAY MORNING. BY MIDDAY...WINDS SHOULD BE ESE AT
10 KTS. LATE AFTERNOON GULF BREEZE LIKELY TO TRANSITION NAPLES TO
SW WINDS. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ATHOUGH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191919
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...WETTER CONDITIONS COMING TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....54/BNB




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191919
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
319 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

...WETTER CONDITIONS COMING TO SOUTH FLORIDA THIS WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST BY TUESDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TROPICAL
MOISTURE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO WORK NORTHWARD MONDAY AND MOVE
INTO SOUTH FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. THEREFORE...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY OVER MOST OF SOUTH FLORIDA, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER MIAMI-DADE COUNTY ON MONDAY. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN INCREASE OVER ALL OF SOUTH
FLORIDA ON TUESDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE SOUTH OF THE ALLIGATOR
ALLEY.

.LONG TERM...
THE FORECAST FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WORK WEEK FOR SOUTH
FLORIDA WILL DEPEND ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO. AT THIS TIME...NHC IS SHOWING A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
DEVELOP OF THIS LOW INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. EVEN IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL SYSTEM...THE TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THE
POPS HAVE BEEN RAISED A LITTLE BIT FOR END OF THIS WEEK INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.

RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST FROM US AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THE DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH
THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THE WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
BEFORE SWINGING TO A SOUTHEAST DIRECTION TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THIS WILL KEEP THE SEAS BELOW 3 FEET IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF
WATERS OF SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FOR LATE THIS WEEK...THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  86  73  85 /  10  10  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  74  86  75  85 /  10  10  30  50
MIAMI            73  86  75  85 /  10  20  40  50
NAPLES           68  86  71  85 /  10  10  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....54/BNB





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

ACTUALLY SOME BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW
DAYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIFTING WEST. WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT APF ARE FROM THE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST, AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT APF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOISTURE
INCREASESTHROUGH TOMORROW, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY VCSH
MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  72  83 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
MIAMI            73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
NAPLES           68  84  72  82 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191806
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

ACTUALLY SOME BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW
DAYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIFTING WEST. WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT APF ARE FROM THE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST, AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT APF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOISTURE
INCREASESTHROUGH TOMORROW, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY VCSH
MENTION ATTM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  72  83 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
MIAMI            73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
NAPLES           68  84  72  82 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191806 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

ACTUALLY SOME BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW
DAYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIFTING WEST. WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT APF ARE FROM THE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST, AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT APF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY VCSH
MENTION ATTM FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  72  83 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
MIAMI            73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
NAPLES           68  84  72  82 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191806 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
206 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

ACTUALLY SOME BKN CIGS AROUND 4KFT FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW
DAYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON,
DRIFTING WEST. WINDS AT ALL TERMINALS, EXCEPT APF ARE FROM THE
EAST OR SOUTHEAST, AND THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP AT APF
LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST WIND. CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANY VCSH
MENTION ATTM FOR EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  71  84  72  83 /   0  10  10  30
FORT LAUDERDALE  73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
MIAMI            73  84  75  83 /   0  10  10  40
NAPLES           68  84  72  82 /   0  10  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....54/BNB
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191337 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT TODAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE ALONG WITH A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THAT A
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS TO SHOW THE WINDS SWINGING FROM A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            86  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           85  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191337 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WAS OUT TODAY OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE ALONG WITH A NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
THAT A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS TO SHOW THE WINDS SWINGING FROM AN NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            86  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           85  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191337 AAB
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WAS OUT TODAY OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH.
THIS WILL KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE ALONG WITH A NORTHEAST
WIND FLOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS
THAT A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF
SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS TO SHOW THE WINDS SWINGING FROM AN NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            86  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           85  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191337 CCA
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
937 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT TODAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL FLORIDA
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL
KEEP THE DRY WEATHER IN PLACE ALONG WITH A NORTHEAST WIND FLOW
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TODAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THAT A
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE WEST COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...THE ONLY CHANGE TO THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS TO SHOW THE WINDS SWINGING FROM A NORTHEAST
DIRECTION TO A WESTERLY DIRECTION OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS.

&&
.UPDATE...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            86  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           85  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...54/BNB
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 191218
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            85  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           83  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 191218
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
818 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES. ANOTHER DRY AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
AROUND 18Z ON BOTH COASTS. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.

MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            85  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           83  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190815
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.


&&

.MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            85  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           83  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190815
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
415 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A MAINLY DRY FRONT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE SINKING SOUTHWARD INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA LATER TODAY WHILE REMAINING DIFFUSE WITH STABLE
WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS.

THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SLOWLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO THE EARLY PART OF THIS WEEK. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE APPROACHING SOUTH FLORIDA
LATER ON MONDAY. THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY
FLOW BRINGING DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT`S APPROACHING 1.9 INCHES BUT NOT
CONSIDERABLE INSTABILITY...SO FOR TUESDAY MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. BY WEDNESDAY DEEP MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST
FOR WEDNESDAY.

THERE CONTINUES TO BE CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST ABOUT JUST HOW LONG THIS DEEP MOISTURE AND POTENTIAL
CONVECTION WILL IMPACT THE REGION. SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THE MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CONVECTION COULD BE
SLOWER THAN INDICATED BY THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS. SO OVER
THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOPEFULLY HAVE A BETTER
CONSENSUS OF THE GUIDANCE.


&&

.MARINE...

LATER TODAY REGIONAL WNDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY
THEN MAINLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION EARLY THIS WEEK THROUGH AT
LEAST MID- WEEK. REGIONAL WINDS TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 KNOTS
OR LESS WITH REGIONAL SEAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST MID-WEEK. AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO FORM
TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SLOWLY LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE COMBINATION OF THESE SYNOPTIC FEATURES WILL
ULTIMATELY DETERMINE THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THE WINDS
ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS. OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INCONSISTENCY IN THE WIND GUIDANCE ACROSS THE
REGIONAL WATERS. THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A WEAKENED
PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR
LESS MONDAY THROUGH MID-WEEK. BUT THIS WAS A DEPARTURE FROM
PREVIOUS GUIDANCE AND ADDITIONAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
COULD BE QUITE DIFFERENT. SO ONCE AGAIN NEED TO STRESS THE
UNCERTAINTIES IN THE WIND AND SEAS FORECAST GIVEN THIS COMPLEX
SYNOPTIC SITUATION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  84  71  84  72 /   0   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  84  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
MIAMI            85  73  84  75 /   0   0  10  10
NAPLES           83  68  84  72 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59/RM
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 190523
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
123 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER VFR DAY WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO BE THE PREDOMINANT WIND REGIME, WITH SEA BREEZE ONSET
AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE 17Z-18Z TIME FRAME. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA





000
FXUS62 KMFL 190523
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
123 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.AVIATION...
DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY PROVIDING ANOTHER VFR DAY WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLOUDS. WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAD TO LIGHT LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO BE THE PREDOMINANT WIND REGIME, WITH SEA BREEZE ONSET
AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE 17Z-18Z TIME FRAME. /MOLLEDA

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION.....59/MOLLEDA




000
FXUS62 KMFL 190106
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
906 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A DRY AND CLEAR NIGHT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
WINDS CALMING WITH SUNSET...AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY CALM THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME NE AT 5-10
KTS...EXCEPT AT KAPF..WHERE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL. CLEAR SKIES/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS, WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS SHOVED SOUTH, AS A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY, EXCEPT A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GIVE WINDS SPEEDS A
SUBTLE BOOST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, LEADING TO A MORE
CONSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE. BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES RAPIDLY WITH A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING. IN RESPONSE, MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS,
MONDAY`S POPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS A VERY DRY SLICE OF AIR REMAINS
AT H7. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY FINALLY BE SUFFICIENT, IN
COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A FEW OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF THE
CWA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WILL SLOWLY
BE DRAWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK, PERHAPS RIDING
EAST ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATED TO THE POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES EXIST, A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD ENSUE BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY A FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  85  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            66  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  86  67  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 190106
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
906 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
A DRY AND CLEAR NIGHT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ARE STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WITH UPPER
50S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 754 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...
WINDS CALMING WITH SUNSET...AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY CALM THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME NE AT 5-10
KTS...EXCEPT AT KAPF..WHERE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL. CLEAR SKIES/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS, WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS SHOVED SOUTH, AS A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY, EXCEPT A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GIVE WINDS SPEEDS A
SUBTLE BOOST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, LEADING TO A MORE
CONSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE. BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES RAPIDLY WITH A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING. IN RESPONSE, MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS,
MONDAY`S POPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS A VERY DRY SLICE OF AIR REMAINS
AT H7. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY FINALLY BE SUFFICIENT, IN
COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A FEW OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF THE
CWA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WILL SLOWLY
BE DRAWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK, PERHAPS RIDING
EAST ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATED TO THE POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES EXIST, A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD ENSUE BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY A FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  85  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            66  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  86  67  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...10/CD
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 182354
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS CALMING WITH SUNSET...AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY CALM THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME NE AT 5-10
KTS...EXCEPT AT KAPF..WHERE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL. CLEAR SKIES/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS, WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS SHOVED SOUTH, AS A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY, EXCEPT A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GIVE WINDS SPEEDS A
SUBTLE BOOST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, LEADING TO A MORE
CONSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE. BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES RAPIDLY WITH A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING. IN RESPONSE, MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS,
MONDAY`S POPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS A VERY DRY SLICE OF AIR REMAINS
AT H7. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY FINALLY BE SUFFICIENT, IN
COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A FEW OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF THE
CWA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WILL SLOWLY
BE DRAWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK, PERHAPS RIDING
EAST ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATED TO THE POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES EXIST, A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD ENSUE BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY A FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  85  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            66  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  86  67  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...23/SK




000
FXUS62 KMFL 182354
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
754 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...
WINDS CALMING WITH SUNSET...AND WILL REMAIN NEARLY CALM THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS BECOME NE AT 5-10
KTS...EXCEPT AT KAPF..WHERE NW WINDS WILL PREVAIL. CLEAR SKIES/VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS, WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS SHOVED SOUTH, AS A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY, EXCEPT A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GIVE WINDS SPEEDS A
SUBTLE BOOST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, LEADING TO A MORE
CONSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE. BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES RAPIDLY WITH A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING. IN RESPONSE, MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS,
MONDAY`S POPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS A VERY DRY SLICE OF AIR REMAINS
AT H7. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY FINALLY BE SUFFICIENT, IN
COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A FEW OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF THE
CWA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WILL SLOWLY
BE DRAWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK, PERHAPS RIDING
EAST ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATED TO THE POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES EXIST, A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD ENSUE BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

LONG TERM...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

MARINE...

WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY A FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  85  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            66  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  86  67  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...23/SK





000
FXUS62 KMFL 181942
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
342 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS, WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS SHOVED SOUTH, AS A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY, EXCEPT A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GIVE WINDS SPEEDS A
SUBTLE BOOST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, LEADING TO A MORE
CONSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE. BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES RAPIDLY WITH A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING. IN RESPONSE, MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS,
MONDAY`S POPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS A VERY DRY SLICE OF AIR REMAINS
AT H7. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY FINALLY BE SUFFICIENT, IN
COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A FEW OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF THE
CWA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WILL SLOWLY
BE DRAWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK, PERHAPS RIDING
EAST ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATED TO THE POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES EXIST, A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD ENSUE BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY A FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  85  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            66  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  86  67  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181942
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
342 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS, WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS SHOVED SOUTH, AS A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY, EXCEPT A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GIVE WINDS SPEEDS A
SUBTLE BOOST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, LEADING TO A MORE
CONSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE. BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES RAPIDLY WITH A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING. IN RESPONSE, MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS,
MONDAY`S POPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS A VERY DRY SLICE OF AIR REMAINS
AT H7. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY FINALLY BE SUFFICIENT, IN
COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A FEW OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF THE
CWA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WILL SLOWLY
BE DRAWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK, PERHAPS RIDING
EAST ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATED TO THE POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES EXIST, A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD ENSUE BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY A FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  85  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            66  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  86  67  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 181942
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
342 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS, WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS SHOVED SOUTH, AS A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY, EXCEPT A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GIVE WINDS SPEEDS A
SUBTLE BOOST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, LEADING TO A MORE
CONSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE. BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES RAPIDLY WITH A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING. IN RESPONSE, MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS,
MONDAY`S POPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS A VERY DRY SLICE OF AIR REMAINS
AT H7. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY FINALLY BE SUFFICIENT, IN
COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A FEW OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF THE
CWA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WILL SLOWLY
BE DRAWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK, PERHAPS RIDING
EAST ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATED TO THE POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES EXIST, A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD ENSUE BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY A FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  85  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            66  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  86  67  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181942
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
342 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
BAHAMAS, WILL WEAKEN AS IT IS SHOVED SOUTH, AS A DRY COLD FRONT
STALLS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. SOUTH FLORIDA
WEATHER WILL REMAIN LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM TODAY, EXCEPT A SLIGHT
TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GIVE WINDS SPEEDS A
SUBTLE BOOST JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, LEADING TO A MORE
CONSISTENT EASTERLY BREEZE. BY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AMPLIFIES RAPIDLY WITH A
DEEP TROUGH DEVELOPING. IN RESPONSE, MOISTURE WILL BE GRADUALLY
PULLED NORTHWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK. DESPITE THIS,
MONDAY`S POPS SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS A VERY DRY SLICE OF AIR REMAINS
AT H7. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY FINALLY BE SUFFICIENT, IN
COMBINATION WITH EASTERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE A FEW OFFSHORE AND
COASTAL SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EXTREME OF THE
CWA.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SITTING IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, WILL SLOWLY
BE DRAWN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK, PERHAPS RIDING
EAST ALONG A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER SOUTH FLORIDA BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THIS FRONT WILL BE RELATED TO THE POTENTIAL
NOR`EASTER OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST NEXT WEEK. ALTHOUGH SOME
TIMING INCONSISTENCIES EXIST, A WETTER PATTERN SHOULD ENSUE BY
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...

THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS MAINLY 3 FEET OR LESS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME EASTERLY LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK. INCREASING MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NEARBY A FRONT INTO SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  65  85  70  86 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  69  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
MIAMI            66  86  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
NAPLES           64  86  67  87 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD





000
FXUS62 KMFL 181813
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
213 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...

CAVU THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AT FLL AND APF,
AND A FEW MORE TERMINALS SHOULD JOIN THEM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. DRY COLD FRONT
SETTLES OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY, AND WINDS GET A SLIGHT NUDGE
AHEAD OF IT, WITH A MORE CONSISTENT/EARLIER EASTERLY WIND
TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  83  72  84 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  83  74  84 /   0   0   0  20
MIAMI            71  83  74  84 /   0   0   0  20
NAPLES           67  84  68  84 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181813
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
213 PM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...

CAVU THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AT FLL AND APF,
AND A FEW MORE TERMINALS SHOULD JOIN THEM THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. DRY COLD FRONT
SETTLES OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY, AND WINDS GET A SLIGHT NUDGE
AHEAD OF IT, WITH A MORE CONSISTENT/EARLIER EASTERLY WIND
TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  69  83  72  84 /   0   0   0  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  71  83  74  84 /   0   0   0  20
MIAMI            71  83  74  84 /   0   0   0  20
NAPLES           67  84  68  84 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 181427
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1027 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...

A REFRESHING AIRMASS ACROSS GLADES AND HENDRY COUNTIES, WHERE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD HOVER IN THE 50S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE
ANOTHER TRANQUIL DAY THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA WITH A SUBTLE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES AND REGIME IS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE SEA
BREEZE, FROM 5-8 KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE...STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SUBTLE SEA BREEZE
AT TIMES...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

MARINE...

STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS
MAINLY 2 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO ENTER THE WESTERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  85  69  83  72 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  85  71  83  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            85  71  83  74 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           85  67  84  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...21/KM
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181208
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
808 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES AND REGIME IS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE SEA
BREEZE, FROM 5-8 KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE...STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SUBTLE SEA BREEZE
AT TIMES...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

MARINE...

STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS
MAINLY 2 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO ENTER THE WESTERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  69  83  72 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  71  83  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            84  71  83  74 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           82  67  84  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM




000
FXUS62 KMFL 181208
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
808 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.AVIATION...

VFR CONTINUES AND REGIME IS SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. THE SEA
BREEZE, FROM 5-8 KTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014/

DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE...STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND A SUBTLE SEA BREEZE
AT TIMES...ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. WITH MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
REGIONAL WATERS, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT FURTHER
NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

MARINE...

STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS
MAINLY 2 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO ENTER THE WESTERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  69  83  72 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  71  83  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            84  71  83  74 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           82  67  84  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD
AVIATION...21/KM





000
FXUS62 KMFL 180804
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE...STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL USHER IN MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS
MAINLY 2 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO ENTER THE WESTERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  69  83  72 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  71  83  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            84  71  83  74 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           82  67  84  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD




000
FXUS62 KMFL 180804
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
404 AM EDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...
HIGH PRESSURE...STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT
AND AT TIMES VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

LONG TERM...
THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY MONDAY WITH
DEEP MOISTURE FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF. THIS WILL USHER IN MOISTURE RETURNING TO SOUTH
FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATER ON MONDAY. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
BY TUESDAY WITH A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE FORECAST TO
EXTEND INTO SOUTH FLORIDA AND REGIONAL WATERS...WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD SHIFT
FURTHER NORTHEAST TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY WEDNESDAY WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING ADDITIONAL DEEP MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE INDICATED IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR THE COVERAGE OF
THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVES COULD OCCUR IN THE EASTERN
GULF AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IN FUTURE GUIDANCE IF THIS
FEATURE PERSISTS AND HOW IT MAY IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.MARINE...

STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS...WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND REGIONAL SEAS
MAINLY 2 FEET OR LESS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IN THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE EASTERLY
AND GENERALLY AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH REGIONAL SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS.
HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FORECAST ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS BY LATE MONDAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND FORECAST
THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS WELL DEPENDING ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO ENTER THE WESTERN GULF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  83  69  83  72 /   0   0   0   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  83  71  83  74 /   0   0   0   0
MIAMI            84  71  83  74 /   0   0   0   0
NAPLES           82  67  84  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD





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